Sample records for modeling existing observations

  1. Multicriteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings (United States)

    Bostenaru Dan, B.


    In this paper a model to decide which buildings from an urban area should be retrofitted is presented. The model has been cast into existing ones by choosing the decision rule, criterion weighting and decision support system types most suitable for the spatial problem of reducing earthquake risk in urban areas, considering existing spatial multiatributive and multiobjective decision methods and especially collaborative issues. Due to the participative character of the group decision problem "retrofitting existing buildings" the decision making model is based on interactivity. Buildings have been modeled following the criteria of spatial decision support systems. This includes identifying the corresponding spatial elements of buildings according to the information needs of actors from different sphaeres like architects, construction engineers and economists. The decision model aims to facilitate collaboration between this actors. The way of setting priorities interactivelly will be shown, by detailing the two phases: judgemental and computational, in this case site analysis, collection and evaluation of the unmodified data and converting survey data to information with computational methods using additional expert support. Buildings have been divided into spatial elements which are characteristic for the survey, present typical damages in case of an earthquake and are decisive for a better seismic behaviour in case of retrofitting. The paper describes the architectural and engineering characteristics as well as the structural damage for constuctions of different building ages on the example of building types in Bucharest, Romania in compressible and interdependent charts, based on field observation, reports from the 1977 earthquake and detailed studies made by the author together with a local engineer for the EERI Web Housing Encyclopedia. On this base criteria for setting priorities flow into the expert information contained in the system.

  2. An observable prerequisite for the existence of persistent currents


    Szeftel, Jacob; Sandeau, Nicolas


    A classical model is presented for persistent currents in superconductors. Their existence is argued to be warranted because their decay would violate the second law of thermodynamics. This conclusion is achieved by analyzing comparatively Ohm's law and the Joule effect in normal metals and superconducting materials. Whereas Ohm's law applies in identical terms in both cases, the Joule effect is shown to cause the temperature of a superconducting sample to \\textit{decrease}. An experiment is ...

  3. The pastor as model for peaceful existence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terence Cooke


    Full Text Available Many people are disillusioned in the democratic South Africa. That is because they went out from the assumption that with the dawn of democracy, violence would disappear. Unfortunately this did not happen. As with most things in life it is not an either � or, but a both � and scenario. In fact, violence is part of the democratic system. Real peace between men and powers can only be the peace of God, the peace which alone heals all disorder. The peace of the world is at best peaceful coexistence, not peace.In South Africa we have a negotiated agreement to peaceful coexistence, and sometimes, for example, after the miracle of the 1994 election and the euphoria of the World Cups of 1995, 2007 and 2010, we may even think we have achieved real peace. It is indeed in these times of euphoria that the people of South Africa may be tempted to lower our aim and settle for second best thinking that we have arrived.Model is used not in the sense of the pastor being an example of a peaceful existence to be followed. It is rather used in the sense that a pastor in his or her professional capacity has the knowledge of the meaning of the term �peaceful existence� and also the hermeneutic competency to apply that knowledge in concrete situations. This opens the exiting possibility that pastors can become travel companions on the road to real peace.The different aspects of being a pastor, office bearer, professional and person, each contribute to the pastor being a model for peace. It must be emphasised that the different aspects always work together as a unity and the strength of the pastor as a model for a peaceful existence is in the simultaneous application of these aspects in the context in which the pastor lives.

  4. Observational constraints on the possible existence of cosmological cosmic rays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montmerle, T.


    The possibility that cosmological cosmic rays (''CCR'': protons and α particles) may have existed in the post recombination era of the early universe (z approximately 100) is examined. In this context, the CCR interact with the ambient gaseous medium. High energy collisions ( (>=) 1 GeV/n ) give rise to diffuse background γ-rays via π deg decay, and low energy collisions (approximately 10-100 MeV/n) give rise to light nuclei: 6 Li, 7 Li and 7 Be (via the α + α sion and ionization losses into account, a system of coupled time-dependent transport equations is solved in the case of a CCR burst. The 1-100 MeV γ-ray background spectrum and the light element abundances are then taken as observational constraints on the CCR hypothesis. It is found that, in this framework, it is possible to account simultaneously for the γ-ray background spectrum and for the otherwise unexplained 7 Li/H ratio, but there are some difficulties with the 7 Li/ 6 Li ratio. To avoid these, it is possible, because of the spread in the γ-ray data, to lower the CCR flux, so that the CCR hypothesis cannot be ruled out on this basis at present. (author)

  5. Existing Model Metrics and Relations to Model Quality


    Mohagheghi, Parastoo; Dehlen, Vegard


    This paper presents quality goals for models and provides a state-of-the-art analysis regarding model metrics. While model-based software development often requires assessing the quality of models at different abstraction and precision levels and developed for multiple purposes, existing work on model metrics do not reflect this need. Model size metrics are descriptive and may be used for comparing models but their relation to model quality is not welldefined. Code metrics are proposed to be ...

  6. Bibliography - Existing Guidance for External Hazard Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decker, Kurt


    The bibliography of deliverable D21.1 includes existing international and national guidance documents and standards on external hazard assessment together with a selection of recent scientific papers, which are regarded to provide useful information on the state of the art of external event modelling. The literature database is subdivided into International Standards, National Standards, and Science Papers. The deliverable is treated as a 'living document' which is regularly updated as necessary during the lifetime of ASAMPSA-E. The current content of the database is about 140 papers. Most of the articles are available as full-text versions in PDF format. The deliverable is available as an EndNote X4 database and as text files. The database includes the following information: Reference, Key words, Abstract (if available), PDF file of the original paper (if available), Notes (comments by the ASAMPSA-E consortium if available) The database is stored at the ASAMPSA-E FTP server hosted by IRSN. PDF files of original papers are accessible through the EndNote software


    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The biosorption of three heavy metal ions namely; Zn2+, Cu2+ and Mn2+ using five microorganisms namely; Bacillus circulans, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Staphylococcus xylosus, Streptomyces rimosus and Yeast (Saccharomyces sp.) were studied. In this paper, the effectiveness of six existing and two proposed kinetic ...

  8. Existing and Emerging Best Practices for Ocean Observation (United States)

    Pearlman, J.; Buttigieg, P. L.; Simpson, P.; Arko, R. A.; Garello, R.; Pissierssens, P.


    Best practices emerge from experience, usually at the local level - in universities, private and public research institutions and other organizations. Large programs such as the European FixO3 for fixed mooring observations or IOOS in the USA for data management may document best practices and urge propagation of techniques. Sometimes communities come together under projects such as the Ocean Data Interoperability Project (ODIP), AtlantOS or international organizations such as the UNESCO IODE or GOOS to create a forum for discussing, recommending and documenting observation and data practices. On the whole the process is fragmented and results are difficult to sustain. From this perspective, several projects and organizations such as ODIP, IODE and AtlantOS are working in collaboration with Ocean Networks Canada, IOOS and selected European projects to address means of improved access to documented best practices and a way to provide the observing community with a compendium that can be sustained for use in training new oceanographers and data scientists and also providing references for experts that are working across disciplines. Where practical, a solution should reach across science communities and networks to support multi-disciplinary applications The initial challenge is to create a base for efficient discovery of documented best practices and getting sufficient documentation in the first place. Working across disciplines, this becomes both a question of appropriate vocabularies and some means for a scientist to understand the background, provenance (including any certification) and value of a best practice. New approaches to semantics and Linked Data, and increasing use of persistent identifiers such as Open Researcher and Contributor IDs (ORCIDs) and International Geo Sample Numbers (IGSNs), will facilitate distributed search across repositories. The approach must be scalable and easy for users to engage so provision of best practice documentation has a low

  9. Review of existing landfill leachate production models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, T.A.


    The protection of water resources is a fundamental consideration in managing landfill operations. Landfill sites should be designed and operated so as to control leachate production and hence minimize the risk of surface and ground water pollution. A further important development is the use of computer models to estimate the production of leachate from landfill sites. It is revealed from the literature that a number of landfill leachate management model lave been development in recent years. These models allow different engineering schemes to be evaluated and are essential tools for design and operation managements of modern landfills. This paper describes a review of such models mainly focused on their theory, practicability, data requirements, suitability to real situation and usefulness. An evaluation of these models identifies. (author)

  10. Geomagnetic Observations and Models

    CERN Document Server

    Mandea, Mioara


    This volume provides comprehensive and authoritative coverage of all the main areas linked to geomagnetic field observation, from instrumentation to methodology, on ground or near-Earth. Efforts are also focused on a 21st century e-Science approach to open access to all geomagnetic data, but also to the data preservation, data discovery, data rescue, and capacity building. Finally, modeling magnetic fields with different internal origins, with their variation in space and time, is an attempt to draw together into one place the traditional work in producing models as IGRF or describing the magn

  11. Studying cancer metastasis : Existing models, challenges and future perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Marion, Denise M. S.; Domanska, Urszula M.; Timmer-Bosscha, Hetty; Walenkamp, Annemiek M. E.

    Cancer metastasis causes most cancer-related deaths. Several model systems to study the complex and multi step process of metastasis exist, including in vitro systems, ex-vivo organ slices, Drosophila Melanogaster and zebrafish models and the use of the chorio allantoic membrane (CAM) of fertilized

  12. A coupled chemotaxis-fluid model: Global existence

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Jian-Guo


    We consider a model arising from biology, consisting of chemotaxis equations coupled to viscous incompressible fluid equations through transport and external forcing. Global existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem is investigated under certain conditions. Precisely, for the chemotaxis-Navier- Stokes system in two space dimensions, we obtain global existence for large data. In three space dimensions, we prove global existence of weak solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system with nonlinear diffusion for the cell density.© 2011 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  13. Studying cancer metastasis: Existing models, challenges and future perspectives. (United States)

    van Marion, Denise M S; Domanska, Urszula M; Timmer-Bosscha, Hetty; Walenkamp, Annemiek M E


    Cancer metastasis causes most cancer-related deaths. Several model systems to study the complex and multi step process of metastasis exist, including in vitro systems, ex-vivo organ slices, Drosophila Melanogaster and zebrafish models and the use of the chorio allantoic membrane (CAM) of fertilized chicken eggs. These models are relatively easy and cheap but often lack the opportunity to study the complete metastasis cascade. More complex but also more expensive is the use of animal models including the more recently developed patient derived tumor xenografts (PDTX). In this review, we give an overview of the existing metastatic models, discuss the challenges of improving current models to enhance translation from the preclinical to the clinical setting and consider future perspectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Pharmacokinetic modeling of gentamicin in treatment of infective endocarditis: Model development and validation of existing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Gomes

    Full Text Available Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1 creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2 assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358 renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076 L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68% as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37% and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82% models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to

  15. Percolation Model for the Existence of a Mitochondrial Eve

    CERN Document Server

    Neves, A G M


    We look at the process of inheritance of mitochondrial DNA as a percolation model on trees equivalent to the Galton-Watson process. The model is exactly solvable for its percolation threshold $p_c$ and percolation probability critical exponent. In the approximation of small percolation probability, and assuming limited progeny number, we are also able to find the maximum and minimum percolation probabilities over all probability distributions for the progeny number constrained to a given $p_c$. As a consequence, we can relate existence of a mitochondrial Eve to quantitative knowledge about demographic evolution of early mankind. In particular, we show that a mitochondrial Eve may exist even in an exponentially growing population, provided that the average number of children per individual is constrained to a small range depending on the probability $p$ that a newborn child is a female.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schiau (Macavei Laura - Liana


    Full Text Available In the two last decades the flat tax systems have spread all around the globe from East and Central Europe to Asia and Central America. Many specialists consider this phenomenon a real fiscal revolution, but others see it as a mistake as long as the new systems are just a feint of the true flat tax designed by the famous Stanford University professors Robert Hall and Alvin Rabushka. In this context this paper tries to determine which of the existing flat tax systems resemble the true flat tax model by comparing and contrasting their main characteristics with the features of the model proposed by Hall and Rabushka. The research also underlines the common features and the differences between the existing models. The idea of this kind of study is not really new, others have done it but the comparison was limited to one country. For example Emil Kalchev from New Bulgarian University has asses the Bulgarian income system, by comparing it with the flat tax and concluding that taxation in Bulgaria is not simple, neutral and non-distortive. Our research is based on several case studies and on compare and contrast qualitative and quantitative methods. The study starts form the fiscal design drawn by the two American professors in the book The Flat Tax. Four main characteristics of the flat tax system were chosen in order to build the comparison: fiscal design, simplicity, avoidance of double taxation and uniformity of the tax rates. The jurisdictions chosen for the case study are countries all around the globe with fiscal systems which are considered flat tax systems. The results obtained show that the fiscal design of Hong Kong is the only flat tax model which is built following an economic logic and not a legal sense, being in the same time a simple and transparent system. Others countries as Slovakia, Albania, Macedonia in Central and Eastern Europe fulfill the requirement regarding the uniformity of taxation. Other jurisdictions avoid the double

  17. Trends in observable passive solar design strategies for existing homes in the U.S

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruzner, Kelly; Cox, Kristin; Machmer, Brian; Klotz, Leidy


    Passive design strategies are among the most cost-effective methods to reduce energy consumption in buildings. However, the prevalence of these strategies in existing U.S. homes is not well understood. To help address this issue, this research evaluated a nationally-representative sample of 1000 existing homes distributed geographically across the U.S. Using satellite images, each building was evaluated for three passive design strategies: orientation, roof color, and level of shading. Several statistically significant regional trends were identified. For example, existing homes in the High Plains, Ohio Valley, Northwest, and Southern regions show a statistically significant trend towards orientation in the East–West direction, an effective passive design strategy. Less intuitively, in terms of what would seem to be optimal passive design, buildings in the High Plains and Ohio Valley generally have lighter roof colors than buildings in the warmer Southwest region. At the national level, no statistically significant trends were found towards the passive design strategies evaluated. These trends give us no reason to believe they were a major consideration in the design of existing homes. Policy measures and education may be required to take advantage of the opportunity for cost-effective energy savings through more widespread passive solar design. - Highlights: ► GoogleMaps to examine implementation of cost-effective, observable passive solar strategies in U.S. houses. ► No national trends toward passive solar design in U.S.—a missed opportunity. ► Some regional passive solar trends in U.S. for house orientation, roof color





    Literature on business models deals extensively with how to design new business models, but hardly with how to make the transition from an existing to a newly designed business model. The transition to a new business model raises several practical and strategic issues, such as how to replace an existing value proposition with a new one, when to acquire new resources and capabilities, and when to start new partnerships. In this paper, we coin the term business model roadmapping as an approach ...

  19. Observations involving broadband impedance modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, J.S.


    Results for single- and multi-bunch instabilities can be significantly affected by the precise model that is used for the broadband impendance. This paper discusses three aspects of broadband impendance modeling. The first is an observation of the effect that a seemingly minor change in an impedance model has on the single-bunch mode coupling threshold. The second is a successful attempt to construct a model for the high-frequency tails of an r.f cavity. The last is a discussion of requirements for the mathematical form of an impendance which follow from the general properties of impendances

  20. Observations involving broadband impedance modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berg, J.S. [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center, Menlo Park, CA (United States)


    Results for single- and multi-bunch instabilities can be significantly affected by the precise model that is used for the broadband impedance. This paper discusses three aspects of broadband impedance modelling. The first is an observation of the effect that a seemingly minor change in an impedance model has on the single-bunch mode coupling threshold. The second is a successful attempt to construct a model for the high-frequency tails of an r.f. cavity. The last is a discussion of requirements for the mathematical form of an impedance which follow from the general properties of impedances. (author)

  1. Observational modeling of topological spaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molaei, M.R.


    In this paper a model for a multi-dimensional observer by using of the fuzzy theory is presented. Relative form of Tychonoff theorem is proved. The notion of topological entropy is extended. The persistence of relative topological entropy under relative conjugate relation is proved.

  2. Greening Existing Buildings in Contemporary Iraqi Urban Reality/ Virtual Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saba Jabar Neama Al-Khafaji


    Full Text Available The approach of greening existing buildings, is an urgent necessity, because the greening operation provides the speed and optimal efficiency in the environmental performance, as well as keeping up with the global green architecture revolution. Therefore, greening existing buildings in Iraq is important for trends towards renewable energies, because of what the country went through economic conditions and crises and wars which kept the country away from what took place globally in this issue. The research problem is: insufficient knowledge about the importance and the mechanism of the greening of existing buildings, including its environmental and economic dimensions, by rationalization of energy consumption and preserving the environment. The research objective is: clarifying the importance of greening existing buildings environmentally and economically, providing a virtual experience for greening the presidency building of Baghdad University, through advanced computer program. The main conclusions is: there is difference representing by reducing the disbursed thermal loads amount for cooling in summer and heating in winter through the use of computerized program (DesignBuilder and that after the implementation of greening operations on the building envelope, which confirms its effectiveness in raising the energy performance efficiency inside the building. Hence, the importance of the application of greening existing buildings approach in Iraq, to bring back Iraqi architecture to environmental and local track proper.

  3. Clinical prediction in defined populations: a simulation study investigating when and how to aggregate existing models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glen P. Martin


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical prediction models (CPMs are increasingly deployed to support healthcare decisions but they are derived inconsistently, in part due to limited data. An emerging alternative is to aggregate existing CPMs developed for similar settings and outcomes. This simulation study aimed to investigate the impact of between-population-heterogeneity and sample size on aggregating existing CPMs in a defined population, compared with developing a model de novo. Methods Simulations were designed to mimic a scenario in which multiple CPMs for a binary outcome had been derived in distinct, heterogeneous populations, with potentially different predictors available in each. We then generated a new ‘local’ population and compared the performance of CPMs developed for this population by aggregation, using stacked regression, principal component analysis or partial least squares, with redevelopment from scratch using backwards selection and penalised regression. Results While redevelopment approaches resulted in models that were miscalibrated for local datasets of less than 500 observations, model aggregation methods were well calibrated across all simulation scenarios. When the size of local data was less than 1000 observations and between-population-heterogeneity was small, aggregating existing CPMs gave better discrimination and had the lowest mean square error in the predicted risks compared with deriving a new model. Conversely, given greater than 1000 observations and significant between-population-heterogeneity, then redevelopment outperformed the aggregation approaches. In all other scenarios, both aggregation and de novo derivation resulted in similar predictive performance. Conclusion This study demonstrates a pragmatic approach to contextualising CPMs to defined populations. When aiming to develop models in defined populations, modellers should consider existing CPMs, with aggregation approaches being a suitable modelling


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. Kharkovskaia


    Full Text Available The method of an interval observer design for nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties is considered. The interval observer synthesis problem for systems with varying parameters consists in the following. If there is the uncertainty restraint for the state values of the system, limiting the initial conditions of the system and the set of admissible values for the vector of unknown parameters and inputs, the interval existence condition for the estimations of the system state variables, containing the actual state at a given time, needs to be held valid over the whole considered time segment as well. Conditions of the interval observers design for the considered class of systems are shown. They are: limitation of the input and state, the existence of a majorizing function defining the uncertainty vector for the system, Lipschitz continuity or finiteness of this function, the existence of an observer gain with the suitable Lyapunov matrix. The main condition for design of such a device is cooperativity of the interval estimation error dynamics. An individual observer gain matrix selection problem is considered. In order to ensure the property of cooperativity for interval estimation error dynamics, a static transformation of coordinates is proposed. The proposed algorithm is demonstrated by computer modeling of the biological reactor. Possible applications of these interval estimation systems are the spheres of robust control, where the presence of various types of uncertainties in the system dynamics is assumed, biotechnology and environmental systems and processes, mechatronics and robotics, etc.

  5. Global existence result for the generalized Peterlin viscoelastic model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lukáčová-Medviďová, M.; Mizerová, H.; Nečasová, Šárka; Renardy, M.


    Roč. 49, č. 4 (2017), s. 2950-2964 ISSN 0036-1410 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-00522S Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : Peterlin viscoelastic equations * global existence * weak solutions Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics OBOR OECD: Pure mathematics Impact factor: 1.648, year: 2016

  6. Global existence result for the generalized Peterlin viscoelastic model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lukáčová-Medviďová, M.; Mizerová, H.; Nečasová, Šárka; Renardy, M.


    Roč. 49, č. 4 (2017), s. 2950-2964 ISSN 0036-1410 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-00522S Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : Peterlin viscoelastic equations * global existence * weak solutions Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.648, year: 2016

  7. Managing Tensions Between New and Existing Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sund, Kristian J.; Bogers, Marcel; Villarroel Fernandez, Juan Andrei


    Exploring new business models may be a good way to stay competitive, but doing so can create tensions internally, in areas such as organizational structure and competition for resources. Companies exploring business model innovation may not recognize the inevitability of these tensions and thus b...... be poorly prepared to manage them. But understanding these issues may lessen some of the organizational challenges associated with business model innovation....

  8. Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Dalkvist, Trine; Grimm, Volker


    Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is a general strategy for modeling complex systems. In POM, multiple patterns observed at different scales and hierarchical levels are used to optimize model structure, to test and select sub-models of key processes, and for calibration. So far, POM has been used...... environment closely. We therefore conclude that post-hoc POM is a useful and viable way to test a highly complex simulation model, but also warn against the dangers of over-fitting to real world patterns that lack details in their explanatory driving factors. To overcome some of these obstacles we suggest...... for developing new models and for models of low to moderate complexity. It remains unclear, though, whether the basic idea of POM to utilize multiple patterns, could also be used to test and possibly develop existing and established models of high complexity. Here, we use POM to test, calibrate, and further...

  9. Managing Tensions Between New and Existing Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sund, Kristian J.; Bogers, Marcel; Villarroel, J. Andrei


    The search for new business models forces established companies to experiment with organizational designs — and leads to tensions that should be anticipated and carefully managed.......The search for new business models forces established companies to experiment with organizational designs — and leads to tensions that should be anticipated and carefully managed....

  10. How Can Blockchain Technology Disrupt the Existing Business Models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Witold Nowiński


    Contribution & Value Added: This study provides an analysis of the possible impact of blockchain technology on business model innovation. Blockchain technology is gaining momentum with more and more diverse applications, as well as increasing numbers of actors involved in its applications. This paper contributes to our understanding of the possible applications of blockchain technology to businesses, and in particular to its impact on business models.

  11. Non-existence of Steady State Equilibrium in the Neoclassical Growth Model with a Longevity Trend

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermansen, Mikkel Nørlem

    of steady state equilibrium when considering the empirically observed trend in longevity. We extend a standard continuous time overlapping generations model by a longevity trend and are thereby able to study the properties of mortality-driven population growth. This turns out to be exceedingly complicated...... to handle, and it is shown that in general no steady state equilibrium exists. Consequently analytical results and long run implications cannot be obtained in a setting with a realistic demographic setup....

  12. Modelling the feasibility of retrofitting hydropower to existing South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Achieving the primary objective required an in-depth study of the theory and literature related to the current electricity situation in South Africa as well as all the different components and considerations of hydropower projects. This theoretical knowledge could then be utilised to develop a computer model which combines the ...

  13. Hyperbolic Plykin attractor can exist in neuron models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belykh, V.; Belykh, I.; Mosekilde, Erik


    of the neuron model, we derive a flow-defined Poincare map giving ail accurate account of the system's dynamics. In a parameter region where the neuron system undergoes bifurcations causing transitions between tonic spiking and bursting, this two-dimensional map becomes a map of a disk with several periodic...

  14. Modelling the feasibility of retrofitting hydropower to existing South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    able energy and the South African energy crisis, the increased price of energy and the introduction of feed-in tariffs for renewables. The model is ... These related mainly to the development of an accurate means for pricing the different ..... target of 10 000 GWh of renewable energy by 2013 (Flak,. 2009). This prompted the ...

  15. Existing Soil Carbon Models Do Not Apply to Forested Wetlands (United States)

    Carl C. Trettin; B. Song; M.F. Jurgensen; C. Li


    When assessing the biological,geological,and chemical cycling of nutrients and elements — or when assessing carbon dynamics with respect to global change — modeling and simulation are necessary. Although wetlands occupy a relatively small proportion of Earth’s terrestrial surface (

  16. Multi-criteria decision model for retrofitting existing buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Bostenaru Dan


    Full Text Available Decision is an element in the risk management process. In this paper the way how science can help in decision making and implementation for retrofitting buildings in earthquake prone urban areas is investigated. In such interventions actors from various spheres are involved. Their interests range among minimising the intervention for maximal preservation or increasing it for seismic safety. Research was conducted to see how to facilitate collaboration between these actors. A particular attention was given to the role of time in actors' preferences. For this reason, on decision level, both the processural and the personal dimension of risk management, the later seen as a task, were considered. A systematic approach was employed to determine the functional structure of a participative decision model. Three layers on which actors implied in this multi-criteria decision problem interact were identified: town, building and element. So-called 'retrofit elements' are characteristic bearers in the architectural survey, engineering simulations, costs estimation and define the realms perceived by the inhabitants. This way they represent an interaction basis for the interest groups considered in a deeper study. Such orientation means for actors' interaction were designed on other levels of intervention as well. Finally, an 'experiment' for the implementation of the decision model is presented: a strategic plan for an urban intervention towards reduction of earthquake hazard impact through retrofitting. A systematic approach proves thus to be a very good communication basis among the participants in the seismic risk management process. Nevertheless, it can only be applied in later phases (decision, implementation, control only, since it serves verifying and improving solution and not developing the concept. The 'retrofit elements' are a typical example of the detailing degree reached in the retrofit design plans in these phases.

  17. Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A


    The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

  18. Modernization of existing power plants. Progress in automation and process control/observation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanna, I.


    Numerous power plants are now getting on in years, and their owners have to face the question 'New plant or upgrade job ?'. Experience in the past few years has shown that in many cases modernization/upgrading of existing plants is a more favorable option than building a complete new power plant. Advantages like lower capital investment costs and avoidance of licensing risks for new plants constitute important motives for choosing the upgrade option in numerous power plants modernization projects. The defined objective here is to ensure the units' operating capability for another 20 to 25 years, sometimes supplemented by meticulous compliance with current environmental impact legislation. Another cogent argument emerges from automation engineering advances in modern-day control systems which make an effective contribution to meeting upgrading objective like: equipment/material -friendly operation, extended useful lifetime, enhanced plant reliability, enhanced plant availability, improved plant efficiency, optimized staffing levels, enhanced cost-effectiveness, compliance with today's international standards. In this context special attention is paid to the economical aspects and to the increase of plant availability. (author). 6 figs

  19. Continuous-time random walk models of DNA electrophoresis in a post array: part I. Evaluation of existing models. (United States)

    Olson, Daniel W; Ou, Jia; Tian, Mingwei; Dorfman, Kevin D


    Several continuous-time random walk (CTRW) models exist to predict the dynamics of DNA in micropost arrays, but none of them quantitatively describes the separation seen in experiments or simulations. In Part I of this series, we examine the assumptions underlying these models by observing single molecules of λ DNA during electrophoresis in a regular, hexagonal array of oxidized silicon posts. Our analysis takes advantage of a combination of single-molecule videomicroscopy and previous Brownian dynamics simulations. Using a custom-tracking program, we automatically identify DNA-post collisions and thus study a large ensemble of events. Our results show that the hold-up time and the distance between collisions for consecutive collisions are uncorrelated. The distance between collisions is a random variable, but it can be smaller than the minimum value predicted by existing models of DNA transport in post arrays. The current CTRW models correctly predict the exponential decay in the probability density of the collision hold-up times, but they fail to account for the influence of finite-sized posts on short hold-up times. The shortcomings of the existing models identified here motivate the development of a new CTRW approach, which is presented in Part II of this series. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  20. Existence and non-existence for the full thermomechanical Souza–Auricchio model of shape memory wires

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Stefanelli, U.


    Roč. 16, č. 4 (2011), s. 349-365 ISSN 1081-2865 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/10/2315 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : shape memory alloys * thermomechanics * existence result * blowup in finite time Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.012, year: 2011 http:// mms

  1. Global existence and asymptotic behaviour for a degenerate diffusive SEIR model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Aliziane


    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze the global existence and asymptotic behavior of a reaction diffusion system with degenerate diffusion arising in modeling the spatial spread of an epidemic disease.

  2. Global existence and asymptotic behavior for a nonlinear degenerate SIS model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarik Ali Ziane


    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the global existence and asymptotic behavior of a reaction diffusion system with degenerate diffusion arising in the modeling and the spatial spread of an epidemic disease.

  3. A practical model for pressure probe system response estimation (with review of existing models) (United States)

    Hall, B. F.; Povey, T.


    The accurate estimation of the unsteady response (bandwidth) of pneumatic pressure probe systems (probe, line and transducer volume) is a common practical problem encountered in the design of aerodynamic experiments. Understanding the bandwidth of the probe system is necessary to capture unsteady flow features accurately. Where traversing probes are used, the desired traverse speed and spatial gradients in the flow dictate the minimum probe system bandwidth required to resolve the flow. Existing approaches for bandwidth estimation are either complex or inaccurate in implementation, so probes are often designed based on experience. Where probe system bandwidth is characterized, it is often done experimentally, requiring careful experimental set-up and analysis. There is a need for a relatively simple but accurate model for estimation of probe system bandwidth. A new model is presented for the accurate estimation of pressure probe bandwidth for simple probes commonly used in wind tunnel environments; experimental validation is provided. An additional, simple graphical method for air is included for convenience.

  4. A Note on the Observational Evidence for the Existence of Event Horizons in Astrophysical Black Hole Candidates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosimo Bambi


    Full Text Available Black holes have the peculiar and intriguing property of having an event horizon, a one-way membrane causally separating their internal region from the rest of the Universe. Today, astrophysical observations provide some evidence for the existence of event horizons in astrophysical black hole candidates. In this short paper, I compare the constraint we can infer from the nonobservation of electromagnetic radiation from the putative surface of these objects with the bound coming from the ergoregion instability, pointing out the respective assumptions and limitations.

  5. Incorporation of Markov reliability models for digital instrumentation and control systems into existing PRAs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bucci, P.; Mangan, L. A.; Kirschenbaum, J.; Mandelli, D.; Aldemir, T.; Arndt, S. A.


    Markov models have the ability to capture the statistical dependence between failure events that can arise in the presence of complex dynamic interactions between components of digital instrumentation and control systems. One obstacle to the use of such models in an existing probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is that most of the currently available PRA software is based on the static event-tree/fault-tree methodology which often cannot represent such interactions. We present an approach to the integration of Markov reliability models into existing PRAs by describing the Markov model of a digital steam generator feedwater level control system, how dynamic event trees (DETs) can be generated from the model, and how the DETs can be incorporated into an existing PRA with the SAPHIRE software. (authors)

  6. Validation of existing prognostic models in patients with early-stage cervical cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Stalpers, Lukas J. A.; Schilthuis, Marten S.; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P. M.; Buist, Marrije R.


    Objective. Models that predict survival and recurrence in patients with early-stage cervical cancer are important tools in patient management, We validated 12 existing prognostic models in an independent population of patients with early-stage cervical cancer. Materials and Methods. We searched the

  7. The model of pathways to treatment: conceptualization and integration with existing theory. (United States)

    Scott, S E; Walter, F M; Webster, A; Sutton, S; Emery, J


    Studying and understanding pathways to diagnosis and treatment is vital for the development of successful interventions to encourage early detection, presentation, and diagnosis. An existing framework posited to describe the decisional and behavioural processes that occur prior to treatment (Andersen et al.'s General Model of Total Patient Delay) does not appear to match the complex and dynamic nature of the pathways into and through the health care system or provide a clear framework for research. Therefore a revised descriptive framework, the Model of Pathways to Treatment, has been proposed. This paper presents the concepts and definitions of the Model of Pathways to Treatment and specifies how the model can encompass existing psychological theory, with particular focus on the Appraisal and Help-seeking intervals. The potential and direction for future work is also discussed. WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS SUBJECT?: • The use of theory is often lacking in existing research into delays in presentation, diagnosis and treatment of illness. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: • A detailed account of the concepts and definitions of a revised framework: the Model of Pathways to Treatment. • Specification of how the Model of Pathways to Treatment can encompass existing psychological theory such as the Common Sense Model of Illness Self-regulation and Social Cognitive Theory. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Observations and Modeling of Atmospheric Radiance Structure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wintersteiner, Peter


    The overall purpose of the work that we have undertaken is to provide new capabilities for observing and modeling structured radiance in the atmosphere, particularly the non-LTE regions of the atmosphere...

  9. Non-existence of random gradient Gibbs measures in continuous interface models in d=2

    CERN Document Server

    Külske, C


    We consider statistical mechanics models of continuous spins in a disordered environment. These models have a natural interpretation as effective interface models. It is well known that without disorder there are no interface Gibbs measures in infinite volume in dimension d=2, while there are "gradient Gibbs measures", describing an infinite-volume distribution for the increments of the field, as was shown by Funaki and Spohn. In the present paper we show that adding a disorder term prohibits the existence of such gradient Gibbs measures for general interaction potentials in d=2. This non-existence result generalizes the simple case of Gaussian fields where it follows from an explicit computation. In d=3, where random gradient Gibbs measures are expected to exist, our method provides a lower bound of the order of the inverse of the distance on the decay of correlations of Gibbs expectations w.r.t. the distribution of the random environment.

  10. Model for behavior observation training programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berghausen, P.E. Jr.


    Continued behavior observation is mandated by ANSI/ANS 3.3. This paper presents a model for behavior observation training that is in accordance with this standard and the recommendations contained in US NRC publications. The model includes seventeen major topics or activities. Ten of these are discussed: Pretesting of supervisor's knowledge of behavior observation requirements, explanation of the goals of behavior observation programs, why behavior observation training programs are needed (legal and psychological issues), early indicators of emotional instability, use of videotaped interviews to demonstrate significant psychopathology, practice recording behaviors, what to do when unusual behaviors are observed, supervisor rationalizations for noncompliance, when to be especially vigilant, and prevention of emotional instability

  11. Thermodynamic Modeling of a Solid Oxide Fuel Cell to Couple with an Existing Gas Turbine Engine Model (United States)

    Brinson, Thomas E.; Kopasakis, George


    The Controls and Dynamics Technology Branch at NASA Glenn Research Center are interested in combining a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) to operate in conjunction with a gas turbine engine. A detailed engine model currently exists in the Matlab/Simulink environment. The idea is to incorporate a SOFC model within the turbine engine simulation and observe the hybrid system's performance. The fuel cell will be heated to its appropriate operating condition by the engine s combustor. Once the fuel cell is operating at its steady-state temperature, the gas burner will back down slowly until the engine is fully operating on the hot gases exhausted from the SOFC. The SOFC code is based on a steady-state model developed by The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). In its current form, the DOE SOFC model exists in Microsoft Excel and uses Visual Basics to create an I-V (current-voltage) profile. For the project's application, the main issue with this model is that the gas path flow and fuel flow temperatures are used as input parameters instead of outputs. The objective is to create a SOFC model based on the DOE model that inputs the fuel cells flow rates and outputs temperature of the flow streams; therefore, creating a temperature profile as a function of fuel flow rate. This will be done by applying the First Law of Thermodynamics for a flow system to the fuel cell. Validation of this model will be done in two procedures. First, for a given flow rate the exit stream temperature will be calculated and compared to DOE SOFC temperature as a point comparison. Next, an I-V curve and temperature curve will be generated where the I-V curve will be compared with the DOE SOFC I-V curve. Matching I-V curves will suggest validation of the temperature curve because voltage is a function of temperature. Once the temperature profile is created and validated, the model will then be placed into the turbine engine simulation for system analysis.

  12. 3D mapping of existing observing capabilities in the frame of GAIA-CLIM H2020 project (United States)

    Emanuele, Tramutola; Madonna, Fabio; Marco, Rosoldi; Francesco, Amato


    The aim of the Gap Analysis for Integrated Atmospheric ECV CLImate Monitoring (GAIA-CLIM) project is to improve our ability to use ground-based and sub-orbital observations to characterise satellite observations for a number of atmospheric Essential Climate Variables (ECVs). The key outcomes will be a "Virtual Observatory" (VO) facility of co-locations and their uncertainties and a report on gaps in capabilities or understanding, which shall be used to inform subsequent Horizon 2020 activities. In particular, Work Package 1 (WP1) of the GAIA-CLIM project is devoted to the geographical mapping of existing non-satellite measurement capabilities for a number of ECVs in the atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial domains. The work carried out within WP1 has allowed to provide the users with an up-to-date geographical identification, at the European and global scales, of current surface-based, balloon-based and oceanic (floats) observing capabilities on an ECV by ECV basis for several parameters which can be obtained using space-based observations from past, present and planned satellite missions. Having alighted on a set of metadata schema to follow, a consistent collection of discovery metadata has been provided into a common structure and will be made available to users through the GAIA-CLIM VO in 2018. Metadata can be interactively visualized through a 3D Graphical User Interface. The metadataset includes 54 plausible networks and 2 aircraft permanent infrastructures for EO Characterisation in the context of GAIA-CLIM currently operating on different spatial domains and measuring different ECVs using one or more measurement techniques. Each classified network has in addition been assessed for suitability against metrological criteria to identifyy those with a level of maturity which enables closure on a comparison with satellite measurements. The metadata GUI is based on Cesium, a virtual globe freeware and open source written in Javascript. It allows users to apply

  13. Global existence and uniqueness result for the diffusive Peterlin viscoelastic model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Medviďová-Lukáčová, M.; Mizerová, H.; Nečasová, Šárka


    Roč. 120, June (2015), s. 154-170 ISSN 0362-546X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-00522S Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : Peterlin viscoelastic model * existence * uniqueness Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.125, year: 2015

  14. Mentoring for junior medical faculty: Existing models and suggestions for low-resource settings. (United States)

    Menon, Vikas; Muraleedharan, Aparna; Bhat, Ballambhattu Vishnu


    Globally, there is increasing recognition about the positive benefits and impact of mentoring on faculty retention rates, career satisfaction and scholarly output. However, emphasis on research and practice of mentoring is comparatively meagre in low and middle income countries. In this commentary, we critically examine two existing models of mentorship for medical faculty and offer few suggestions for an integrated hybrid model that can be adapted for use in low resource settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Existing and Required Modeling Capabilities for Evaluating ATM Systems and Concepts (United States)

    Odoni, Amedeo R.; Bowman, Jeremy; Delahaye, Daniel; Deyst, John J.; Feron, Eric; Hansman, R. John; Khan, Kashif; Kuchar, James K.; Pujet, Nicolas; Simpson, Robert W.


    ATM systems throughout the world are entering a period of major transition and change. The combination of important technological developments and of the globalization of the air transportation industry has necessitated a reexamination of some of the fundamental premises of existing Air Traffic Management (ATM) concepts. New ATM concepts have to be examined, concepts that may place more emphasis on: strategic traffic management; planning and control; partial decentralization of decision-making; and added reliance on the aircraft to carry out strategic ATM plans, with ground controllers confined primarily to a monitoring and supervisory role. 'Free Flight' is a case in point. In order to study, evaluate and validate such new concepts, the ATM community will have to rely heavily on models and computer-based tools/utilities, covering a wide range of issues and metrics related to safety, capacity and efficiency. The state of the art in such modeling support is adequate in some respects, but clearly deficient in others. It is the objective of this study to assist in: (1) assessing the strengths and weaknesses of existing fast-time models and tools for the study of ATM systems and concepts and (2) identifying and prioritizing the requirements for the development of additional modeling capabilities in the near future. A three-stage process has been followed to this purpose: 1. Through the analysis of two case studies involving future ATM system scenarios, as well as through expert assessment, modeling capabilities and supporting tools needed for testing and validating future ATM systems and concepts were identified and described. 2. Existing fast-time ATM models and support tools were reviewed and assessed with regard to the degree to which they offer the capabilities identified under Step 1. 3 . The findings of 1 and 2 were combined to draw conclusions about (1) the best capabilities currently existing, (2) the types of concept testing and validation that can be carried

  16. Existence, uniqueness and positivity of solutions for BGK models for mixtures (United States)

    Klingenberg, C.; Pirner, M.


    We consider kinetic models for a multi component gas mixture without chemical reactions. In the literature, one can find two types of BGK models in order to describe gas mixtures. One type has a sum of BGK type interaction terms in the relaxation operator, for example the model described by Klingenberg, Pirner and Puppo [20] which contains well-known models of physicists and engineers for example Hamel [16] and Gross and Krook [15] as special cases. The other type contains only one collision term on the right-hand side, for example the well-known model of Andries, Aoki and Perthame [1]. For each of these two models [20] and [1], we prove existence, uniqueness and positivity of solutions in the first part of the paper. In the second part, we use the first model [20] in order to determine an unknown function in the energy exchange of the macroscopic equations for gas mixtures described by Dellacherie [11].

  17. A Community Data Model for Hydrologic Observations (United States)

    Tarboton, D. G.; Horsburgh, J. S.; Zaslavsky, I.; Maidment, D. R.; Valentine, D.; Jennings, B.


    The CUAHSI Hydrologic Information System project is developing information technology infrastructure to support hydrologic science. Hydrologic information science involves the description of hydrologic environments in a consistent way, using data models for information integration. This includes a hydrologic observations data model for the storage and retrieval of hydrologic observations in a relational database designed to facilitate data retrieval for integrated analysis of information collected by multiple investigators. It is intended to provide a standard format to facilitate the effective sharing of information between investigators and to facilitate analysis of information within a single study area or hydrologic observatory, or across hydrologic observatories and regions. The observations data model is designed to store hydrologic observations and sufficient ancillary information (metadata) about the observations to allow them to be unambiguously interpreted and used and provide traceable heritage from raw measurements to usable information. The design is based on the premise that a relational database at the single observation level is most effective for providing querying capability and cross dimension data retrieval and analysis. This premise is being tested through the implementation of a prototype hydrologic observations database, and the development of web services for the retrieval of data from and ingestion of data into the database. These web services hosted by the San Diego Supercomputer center make data in the database accessible both through a Hydrologic Data Access System portal and directly from applications software such as Excel, Matlab and ArcGIS that have Standard Object Access Protocol (SOAP) capability. This paper will (1) describe the data model; (2) demonstrate the capability for representing diverse data in the same database; (3) demonstrate the use of the database from applications software for the performance of hydrologic analysis

  18. Existence of Torsional Solitons in a Beam Model of Suspension Bridge (United States)

    Benci, Vieri; Fortunato, Donato; Gazzola, Filippo


    This paper studies the existence of solitons, namely stable solitary waves, in an idealized suspension bridge. The bridge is modeled as an unbounded degenerate plate, that is, a central beam with cross sections, and displays two degrees of freedom: the vertical displacement of the beam and the torsional angles of the cross sections. Under fairly general assumptions, we prove the existence of solitons. Under the additional assumption of large tension in the sustaining cables, we prove that these solitons have a nontrivial torsional component. This appears relevant for security since several suspension bridges collapsed due to torsional oscillations.

  19. Existence, uniqueness, monotonicity and asymptotic behaviour of travelling waves for epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsu, Cheng-Hsiung; Yang, Tzi-Sheng


    The purpose of this work is to investigate the existence, uniqueness, monotonicity and asymptotic behaviour of travelling wave solutions for a general epidemic model arising from the spread of an epidemic by oral–faecal transmission. First, we apply Schauder's fixed point theorem combining with a supersolution and subsolution pair to derive the existence of positive monotone monostable travelling wave solutions. Then, applying the Ikehara's theorem, we determine the exponential rates of travelling wave solutions which converge to two different equilibria as the moving coordinate tends to positive infinity and negative infinity, respectively. Finally, using the sliding method, we prove the uniqueness result provided the travelling wave solutions satisfy some boundedness conditions. (paper)

  20. Modeling the Static Force of a Festo Pneumatic Muscle Actuator: A New Approach and a Comparison to Existing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirco Martens


    Full Text Available In this paper, a new approach for modeling the static force characteristic of Festo pneumatic muscle actuators (PMAs will be presented. The model is physically motivated and therefore gives a deeper understanding of the Festo PMA. After introducing the new model, it will be validated through a comparison to a measured force map of a Festo DMSP-10-250 and a DMSP-20-300, respectively. It will be shown that the error between the new model and the measured data is below 4.4% for the DMSP-10-250 and below 2.35% for the DMSP-20-300. In addition, the quality of the presented model will be compared to the quality of existing models by comparing the maximum error. It can be seen that the newly introduced model is closer to the measured force characteristic of a Festo PMA than any existing model.

  1. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld


    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Irawan


    Full Text Available Implementation of community empowerment scheme in the Poigar Production Forest Management Unit (PFMU Model area needs to take into account on community perception and behavior. This study aimed to determine the level of perception and behavior of the community towards the existence Poigar PFMU Model and to recommend the appropriate community empowerment scheme. To find out the perceptios and behavior of the Lolan Village community towards Poigar PFMU Model was by using Likert Scale. Furthermore, to determine the factors that influence people's behavior, then Spearman rank (Rs correlation test was used. The results showed that the level of perception of Lolan village communities to the existence of the Poigar PFMU Model was in good category, while the society behavior was in the less category. A good public perception of the Poigar PFMU Model area, did not have significant influence on its behavior. Community social characteristics that correlate with the behavior of the community were among others: education, level of income sourced from outside the area and level of interaction with the forest. Based on this, community empowerment strategy that is most likely to do in Poigar PFMU Model is through the Forestry Partnership Scheme.

  3. Coalescence model of two collinear cracks existing in steam generator tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, S.-I.; Chang, Y.-S.; Kim, Y.-J.; Park, Y.-W.; Song, M.-H.; Choi, Y.-H.; Lee, J.-H.


    The 40% of wall thickness criterion has been used as a plugging rule of steam generator tubes but it can be applicable just to a single-cracked tubes. In the previous studies preformed by the authors, a total of 10 local failure prediction models were introduced to estimate the coalescence load of two adjacent collinear through-wall cracks existing in thin plates, and the reaction force model and plastic zone contact model were selected as optimum models among them. The objective of this study is to verify the applicability of the proposed optimum local failure prediction models to the tubes with two collinear through-wall cracks. For this, a series of plastic collapse tests and finite element analyses were carried out using the tubes containing two collinear through-wall cracks. It has been shown that the proposed optimum failure models can predict the local failure behavior of two collinear through-wall cracks existing in tubes well. And a coalescence evaluation diagram was developed which can be used to determine whether the adjacent cracks detected by NED coalsece or not. (authors)

  4. Preliminary evaluation of the importance of existing hydraulic-head observation locations to advective-transport predictions, Death Valley regional flow system, California and Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, M.C.; Ely, D.M.; Tiedeman, C.R.; O'Brien, G.M.; D'Agnese, F.A.; Faunt, C.C.


    When a model is calibrated by nonlinear regression, calculated diagnostic statistics and measures of uncertainty provide a wealth of information about many aspects of the system. This report presents a method of ranking the likely importance of existing observation locations using measures of prediction uncertainty. It is suggested that continued monitoring is warranted at more important locations, and unwarranted or less warranted at less important locations. The report develops the methodology and then demonstrates it using the hydraulic-head observation locations of a three-layer model of the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS). The predictions of interest are subsurface transport from beneath Yucca Mountain and 14 underground Test Area (UGTA) sites. The advective component of transport is considered because it is the component most affected by the system dynamics represented by the regional-scale model being used. The problem is addressed using the capabilities of the U.S. Geological Survey computer program MODFLOW-2000, with its ADVective-Travel Observation (ADV) Package, and an additional computer program developed for this work

  5. Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions (United States)

    Sathnur, Ashwini


    " positives. Cost - free data made available. Minimum band - width problem. Rapid communication system. Validation and Requirements of the New products of the Remote Sensing instruments The qualities of the existing products would be present in the new products also. Along with these qualities, newly devised additional qualities are also required in order to build an advanced remote sensing instrument. The new additional requirements are mentioned below:- Review Comment Number 1 Enlarging the spatial resolution so that the volcanic plumes erupting from the early volcanic eruption is captured by the remote sensing instrument. This spatial resolution data capture would involve better video and camera facilities on the remote sensing instrument. Review Comment Number 2 Capturing the traces of carbon, carbonic acid and water vapour, along with the existing product's capture of sulphur dioxide and volcanic Ash. Review Comment Number 3 Creating an additional module in the instrument to derive the functionality of forecasting a volcanic eruption. This new forecast model should be able to predict the occurrences of volcanic eruption several months in advance. This is basically to create mechanisms for providing early solutions to the problems of mitigation of volcanic hazards. Review Comment Number 4 Creating additional features in the remote sensing instrument to enable the automatic transfer of forecasted eruptions of volcanoes, to the disaster relief operations team. This transfer of information is to be performed automatically, without any request raised from the relief operations team, for the predicted forecast information. This is for the purpose of receiving the information at the right - time, thus eliminating any possibility of occurrences of errors during hazard management.

  6. Observations in particle physics: from two neutrinos to standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lederman, L.M.


    Experiments, which have made their contribution to creation of the standard model, are discussed. Results of observations on the following concepts: long-lived neutral V-particles, violation of preservation of parity and charge invariance in meson decays, reaction with high-energy neutrino and existence of neutrino of two types, partons and dynamic quarks, dimuon resonance at 9.5 GeV in 400 GeV-proton-nucleus collisions, are considered

  7. Existence and regularity of solutions to the Leray-alpha model with Navier slip boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hani Ali


    Full Text Available We establish the existence and regularity of a unique weak solution to turbulent flows in a bounded domain $\\Omega\\subset\\mathbb R^3$ governed by the Leray-$\\alpha$ model with Navier slip boundary condition for the velocity. Furthermore, we show that when the filter coefficient $\\alpha$ tends to zero, these weak solutions converge to a suitable weak solution to the incompressible Navier Stokes equations subject to the Navier boundary conditions. Finally, we discuss the relation between the Leray-$\\alpha$ model and the Navier-Stokes equations with homogeneous Dirichlet boundary condition.

  8. Combining existing numerical models with data assimilation using weighted least-squares finite element methods. (United States)

    Rajaraman, Prathish K; Manteuffel, T A; Belohlavek, M; Heys, Jeffrey J


    A new approach has been developed for combining and enhancing the results from an existing computational fluid dynamics model with experimental data using the weighted least-squares finite element method (WLSFEM). Development of the approach was motivated by the existence of both limited experimental blood velocity in the left ventricle and inexact numerical models of the same flow. Limitations of the experimental data include measurement noise and having data only along a two-dimensional plane. Most numerical modeling approaches do not provide the flexibility to assimilate noisy experimental data. We previously developed an approach that could assimilate experimental data into the process of numerically solving the Navier-Stokes equations, but the approach was limited because it required the use of specific finite element methods for solving all model equations and did not support alternative numerical approximation methods. The new approach presented here allows virtually any numerical method to be used for approximately solving the Navier-Stokes equations, and then the WLSFEM is used to combine the experimental data with the numerical solution of the model equations in a final step. The approach dynamically adjusts the influence of the experimental data on the numerical solution so that more accurate data are more closely matched by the final solution and less accurate data are not closely matched. The new approach is demonstrated on different test problems and provides significantly reduced computational costs compared with many previous methods for data assimilation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Global existence of solutions to a tear film model with locally elevated evaporation rates (United States)

    Gao, Yuan; Ji, Hangjie; Liu, Jian-Guo; Witelski, Thomas P.


    Motivated by a model proposed by Peng et al. (2014) for break-up of tear films on human eyes, we study the dynamics of a generalized thin film model. The governing equations form a fourth-order coupled system of nonlinear parabolic PDEs for the film thickness and salt concentration subject to non-conservative effects representing evaporation. We analytically prove the global existence of solutions to this model with mobility exponents in several different ranges and present numerical simulations that are in agreement with the analytic results. We also numerically capture other interesting dynamics of the model, including finite-time rupture-shock phenomenon due to the instabilities caused by locally elevated evaporation rates, convergence to equilibrium and infinite-time thinning.

  10. Thai student existing understanding about the solar system model and the motion of the stars (United States)

    Anantasook, Sakanan; Yuenyong, Chokchai


    The paper examined Thai student existing understanding about the solar system model and the motion of the stars. The participants included 141 Grade 9 students in four different schools of the Surin province, Thailand. Methodology regarded interpretive paradigm. The tool of interpretation included the Student Celestial Motion Conception Questionnaire (SCMCQ) and informal interview. Given understandings in the SCMCQ were read through and categorized according to students' understandings. Then, students were further probed as informal interview. Students' understandings in each category were counted and percentages computed. Finally, students' understandings across four different schools were compared and contrasted using the percentage of student responses in each category. The findings revealed that most students understand about Sun-Moon-Earth (SME) system and solar system model as well, they can use scientific explanations to explain the celestial objects in solar system and how they orbiting. Unfortunately, most of students (more than 70%) never know about the Polaris, the North Star, and 90.1% of them never know about the ecliptic, and probably also the 12 zodiac constellations. These existing understanding suggested some ideas of teaching and learning about solar system model and the motion of the stars. The paper, then, discussed some learning activities to enhance students to further construct meaning about solar system model and the motion of the stars.

  11. Properties predictive modeling through the concept of a hybrid interphase existing between phases in contact (United States)

    Portan, D. V.; Papanicolaou, G. C.


    From practical point of view, predictive modeling based on the physics of composite material behavior is wealth generating; by guiding material system selection and process choices, by cutting down on experimentation and associated costs; and by speeding up the time frame from the research stage to the market place. The presence of areas with different properties and the existence of an interphase between them have a pronounced influence on the behavior of a composite system. The Viscoelastic Hybrid Interphase Model (VHIM), considers the existence of a non-homogeneous viscoelastic and anisotropic interphase having properties depended on the degree of adhesion between the two phases in contact. The model applies for any physical/mechanical property (e.g. mechanical, thermal, electrical and/or biomechanical). Knowing the interphasial variation of a specific property one can predict the corresponding macroscopic behavior of the composite. Moreover, the model acts as an algorithm and a two-way approach can be used: (i) phases in contact may be chosen to get the desired properties of the final composite system or (ii) the initial phases in contact determine the final behavior of the composite system, that can be approximately predicted. The VHIM has been proven, amongst others, to be extremely useful in biomaterial designing for improved contact with human tissues.

  12. Confronting Cepheids Models with Interferometric Observations (United States)

    Nardetto, N.

    In the last years, some issues concerning Cepheids have been resolved, based on observations and modeling. However, as usual, new difficulties arise. The link between the dynamical structure of Cepheid atmosphere and the distance scale calibration in the universe is now clearly established. To support observations, we currently need fully consistent hydrodynamical models, including pulsating and evolutionary theories, convective energy transport, adaptive numerical meshes, and a refined calculation of the radiative transfer within the pulsating atmosphere, and also in the expected circumstellar envelope (hereafter CSE). Confronting such models with observations (spectral line profiles, spatial- and spectral- visibility curves), will permit to resolve and/or strengthen subtle questions concerning (1) the limb-darkening, (2) the dynamical structure of Cepheids' atmosphere, (3) the expected interaction between the atmosphere and the CSE, and (4) it will bring new insights in determining the fundamental parameters of Cepheids. All these physical quantities are supposed furthermore to be linked to the pulsation period of Cepheids. From these studies, it will be possible to paint a glowing picture of all Cepheids within the instability strip, allowing an unprecedent calibration of the period-luminosity relation (hereafter PL relation), leading to new insights in the fields of extragalactic distance scales and cosmology.

  13. Observation and modelling of urban dew (United States)

    Richards, Katrina

    Despite its relevance to many aspects of urban climate and to several practical questions, urban dew has largely been ignored. Here, simple observations an out-of-doors scale model, and numerical simulation are used to investigate patterns of dewfall and surface moisture (dew + guttation) in urban environments. Observations and modelling were undertaken in Vancouver, B.C., primarily during the summers of 1993 and 1996. Surveys at several scales (0.02-25 km) show that the main controls on dew are weather, location and site configuration (geometry and surface materials). Weather effects are discussed using an empirical factor, FW . Maximum dew accumulation (up to ~ 0.2 mm per night) is seen on nights with moist air and high FW , i.e., cloudless conditions with light winds. Favoured sites are those with high Ysky and surfaces which cool rapidly after sunset, e.g., grass and well insulated roofs. A 1/8-scale model is designed, constructed, and run at an out-of-doors site to study dew patterns in an urban residential landscape which consists of house lots, a street and an open grassed park. The Internal Thermal Mass (ITM) approach is used to scale the thermal inertia of buildings. The model is validated using data from full-scale sites in Vancouver. Patterns in the model agree with those seen at the full-scale, i.e., dew distribution is governed by weather, site geometry and substrate conditions. Correlation is shown between Ysky and surface moisture accumulation. The feasibility of using a numerical model to simulate urban dew is investigated using a modified version of a rural dew model. Results for simple isolated surfaces-a deciduous tree leaf and an asphalt shingle roof-show promise, especially for built surfaces.

  14. Modeling Heliospheric Interface: Observational and Theoretical Challenges (United States)

    Pogorelov, N.; Heerikhuisen, J.; Borovikov, S.; Zank, G.


    Observational data provided by Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft ahead of the heliospheric termination shock (TS) and in the heliosheath require considerate reassessment of theoretical models of the solar wind (SW) interaction with the magnetized interstellar medium (LISM). Contemporary models, although sophisticated enough to take into account kinetic processes accompanying charge exchange between ions and atoms and address the coupling of the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields (ISMF and IMF) at the heliospheric interface, are still unable to analyze the effect of non-thermal pick-up ions (PUI's) in the heliosheath. The presence of PUI's undermines the assumption of a Maxwellian distribution of the SW ions. We discuss the ways to improve physical models in this respect. The TS asymmetry observed by Voyagers can be attributed to the combination of 3D, time- dependent behavior of the SW and by the action of the ISMF. It is clear, however, that the ISMF alone can account for the TS asymmetry of about 10 AU only if it is unexpectedly strong (greater than 4 microgauss). We analyze the consequences of such magnetic fields for the neutral hydrogen deflection in the inner heliosphere from its original direction in the unperturbed LISM. We also discuss the conditions for the 2-3 kHz radio emission, which is believed to be generated in the outer heliosheath beyond the heliopause, and analyze possible location of radio emission sources under the assumption of strong magnetic field. The quality of the physical model becomes crucial when we need to address modern observational and theoretical challenges. We compare the plasma, neutral particle, and magnetic field distributions obtained with our MHD-kinetic and 5-fluid models. The transport of neutral particles is treated kinetically in the former and by a multiple neutral-fluid approach in the latter. We also investigate the distribution of magnetic field in the inner heliosheath for large angles between the Sun

  15. Measuring and Managing Value Co-Creation Process: Overview of Existing Theoretical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Skaržauskaitė


    Full Text Available Purpose — the article is to provide a holistic view on concept of value co-creation and existing models for measuring and managing it by conducting theoretical analysis of scientific literature sources targeting the integration of various approaches. Most important and relevant results of the literature study are presented with a focus on changed roles of organizations and consumers. This article aims at contributing theoretically to the research stream of measuring co-creation of value in order to gain knowledge for improvement of organizational performance and enabling new and innovative means of value creation. Design/methodology/approach. The nature of this research is exploratory – theoretical analysis and synthesis of scientific literature sources targeting the integration of various approaches was performed. This approach was chosen due to the absence of established theory on models of co-creation, possible uses in organizations and systematic overview of tools measuring/suggesting how to measure co-creation. Findings. While the principles of managing and measuring co-creation in regards of consumer motivation and involvement are widely researched, little attempt has been made to identify critical factors and create models dealing with organizational capabilities and managerial implications of value co-creation. Systematic analysis of literature revealed a gap not only in empirical research concerning organization’s role in co-creation process, but in theoretical and conceptual levels, too. Research limitations/implications. The limitations of this work as a literature review lies in its nature – the complete reliance on previously published research papers and the availability of these studies. For a deeper understanding of co-creation management and for developing models that can be used in real-life organizations, a broader theoretical, as well as empirical, research is necessary. Practical implications. Analysis of the

  16. Interaction of ascending magma with pre-existing crustal structures: Insights from analogue modeling (United States)

    Le Corvec, N.; Menand, T.; Rowland, J. V.


    Magma transport through dikes is a major component of the development of basaltic volcanic fields. Basaltic volcanic fields occur in many different tectonic setting, from tensile (e.g., Camargo Volcanic Field, Mexico) to compressive (e.g., Abu Monogenetic Volcano Group, Japan). However, an important observation is that, independently of their tectonic setting, volcanic fields are characterized by numerous volcanic centers showing clustering and lineaments, each volcanic center typically resulting from a single main eruption. Analyses from Auckland Volcanic Field reveal that, for each eruption, magma was transported from its source and reached the surface at different places within the same field, which raises the important question of the relative importance of 1) the self-propagation of magma through pristine rock, as opposed to 2) the control exerted by pre-existing structures. These two mechanisms have different implications for the alignment of volcanic centers in a field as these may reflect either 1) the state of crustal stress dikes would have experienced (with a tendency to propagate perpendicular to the least compressive stress) or 2) the interaction of propagating dikes with pre-existing crustal faults. In the latter case, lineaments might not be related to the syn-emplacement state of stress of the crust. To address this issue, we have carried out a series of analogue experiments in order to constrain the interaction of a propagating magma-filled dike with superficial pre-existing structures (e.g., fracture, fault, joint system). The experiments involved the injection of air (a buoyant magma analogue) into elastic gelatine solids (crustal rock analogues). Cracks were cut into the upper part of the gelatine solids prior to the injection of air to simulate the presence of pre-existing fractures. The volume of the propagating dikes, their distance from pre-existing fractures and the ambient stress field were systematically varied to assess their influence

  17. Two phase modeling of nanofluid flow in existence of melting heat transfer by means of HAM (United States)

    Sheikholeslami, M.; Jafaryar, M.; Bateni, K.; Ganji, D. D.


    In this article, Buongiorno Model is applied for investigation of nanofluid flow over a stretching plate in existence of magnetic field. Radiation and Melting heat transfer are taken into account. Homotopy analysis method (HAM) is selected to solve ODEs which are obtained from similarity transformation. Roles of Brownian motion, thermophoretic parameter, Hartmann number, porosity parameter, Melting parameter and Eckert number are presented graphically. Results indicate that nanofluid velocity and concentration enhance with rise of melting parameter. Nusselt number reduces with increase of porosity and melting parameters.

  18. Global existence of periodic solutions on a simplified BAM neural network model with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Baodong; Zhang Yazhuo; Zhang Chunrui


    A simplified n-dimensional BAM neural network model with delays is considered. Some results of Hopf bifurcations occurring at the zero equilibrium as the delay increases are exhibited. Global existence of periodic solutions are established using a global Hopf bifurcation result of Wu [Wu J. Symmetric functional-differential equations and neural networks with memory. Trans Am Math Soc 1998;350:4799-838], and a Bendixson criterion for higher dimensional ordinary differential equations due to Li and Muldowney [Li MY, Muldowney J. On Bendixson's criterion. J Differ Equations 1994;106:27-39]. Finally, computer simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results found

  19. Load-Flow in Multiphase Distribution Networks: Existence, Uniqueness, Non-Singularity, and Linear Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernstein, Andrey [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dall-Anese, Emiliano [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhao, Changhong [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Wang, Cong [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL); Le Boudec, Jean-Yves [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL)


    This paper considers unbalanced multiphase distribution systems with generic topology and different load models, and extends the Z-bus iterative load-flow algorithm based on a fixed-point interpretation of the AC load-flow equations. Explicit conditions for existence and uniqueness of load-flow solutions are presented. These conditions also guarantee convergence of the load-flow algorithm to the unique solution. The proposed methodology is applicable to generic systems featuring (i) wye connections; (ii) ungrounded delta connections; (iii) a combination of wye-connected and delta-connected sources/loads; and, (iv) a combination of line-to-line and line-to-grounded-neutral devices at the secondary of distribution transformers. Further, a sufficient condition for the non-singularity of the load-flow Jacobian is proposed. Finally, linear load-flow models are derived, and their approximation accuracy is analyzed. Theoretical results are corroborated through experiments on IEEE test feeders.

  20. A Data Quality Information Model for Earth Observation (United States)

    Yang, X.; Blower, J.; Cornford, D.; Maso, J.; Zabala, A.; Bastin, L.; Lush, V.; Diaz, P.


    The question of data quality is a prominent topic of current research in Earth observation. However, different users have different views and visions on data quality. There exists a set of standards and specifications in relation to data quality for Earth observation (e.g. ISO standards, W3C standards, QA4EO), and how to choose appropriate one for quality information representation also present a challenge. In order to address the need, we carried out interviews with environmental scientists to elicit their views on matters such as how they choose data for their studies, and what encourages them to trust the accuracy and validity of the data. Interviews were structured around a carefully-designed questionnaire. Face-to-face and telephone interviews were performed in order to gain maximum value from the consultation process. An array of views and visions on Earth observation data have been gathered, which will provide valuable input to the community and other data providers. Informed by the interview findings, we critically review the existing standards and specifications and propose a new, integrated quality information model for Earth observation. This builds upon existing models, notably the ISO standards suite, filling gaps that we have identified in order to encompass other important aspects of data quality. This work has been performed in the context of the EU FP7 GeoViQua project, which aims to augment the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) with information about the quality of data holdings, and to provide visualization capabilities for users to view data together with associated quality information.

  1. Lagrangian Observations and Modeling of Marine Larvae (United States)

    Paris, Claire B.; Irisson, Jean-Olivier


    Just within the past two decades, studies on the early-life history stages of marine organisms have led to new paradigms in population dynamics. Unlike passive plant seeds that are transported by the wind or by animals, marine larvae have motor and sensory capabilities. As a result, marine larvae have a tremendous capacity to actively influence their dispersal. This is continuously revealed as we develop new techniques to observe larvae in their natural environment and begin to understand their ability to detect cues throughout ontogeny, process the information, and use it to ride ocean currents and navigate their way back home, or to a place like home. We present innovative in situ and numerical modeling approaches developed to understand the underlying mechanisms of larval transport in the ocean. We describe a novel concept of a Lagrangian platform, the Drifting In Situ Chamber (DISC), designed to observe and quantify complex larval behaviors and their interactions with the pelagic environment. We give a brief history of larval ecology research with the DISC, showing that swimming is directional in most species, guided by cues as diverse as the position of the sun or the underwater soundscape, and even that (unlike humans!) larvae orient better and swim faster when moving as a group. The observed Lagrangian behavior of individual larvae are directly implemented in the Connectivity Modeling System (CMS), an open source Lagrangian tracking application. Simulations help demonstrate the impact that larval behavior has compared to passive Lagrangian trajectories. These methodologies are already the base of exciting findings and are promising tools for documenting and simulating the behavior of other small pelagic organisms, forecasting their migration in a changing ocean.

  2. The relevance of existing health communication models in the email age: An (United States)

    Fage-Butler, Antoinette Mary; Jensen, Matilde Nisbeth


    Email communication is being integrated relatively slowly into doctor–patient communication. Patients have expressed enthusiasm for the medium, while doctors are generally more reluctant. As existing health communication models have characteristically assumed the co-presence of doctor and patient and primarily reflect medical practitioners’ perspectives, their suitability in relation to email communication and patients’ perspectives warrants further investigation. Following a two-step process and using the methodology of the integrative literature review, 29 articles from 2004–2014 are analysed with the aim of investigating the advantages and disadvantages of the medium of email from the patient’s perspective. The findings are compared to the health communication models of biomedicine, patient-centeredness, patient education and patient empowerment to investigate these models’ relevance for doctor–patient email communication. Results show that patients identify numerous advantages with email communication, including improved convenience and access, more detailed informational exchanges, greater reflection opportunities, freedom from the medical gaze and the potential to level out power imbalances, as well as a number of primarily medium-related disadvantages. The findings indicate that email can counteract some of the communicative problems associated with biomedicine and suggest the ongoing relevance of aspects of the models of patient empowerment, patient-centeredness and patient education for email communication.

  3. Existence of several surface-reconstructed phases in a two-dimensional lattice model (United States)

    Huckaby, Dale A.; Rys, Franz S.


    The zero-temperature phase diagram is rigorously obtained for a two-dimensional lattice model with four energy parameters. It is shown that the parameter space can be divided into regions, together with their boundaries, such that in each region the ground-state configurations are of one of seven different types. These types include one which is nondegenerate, four which are doubly degenerate, one which is infinitely degenerate but with no residual entropy, and one which is infinitely degenerate and has a nonzero residual entropy. The Pirogov-Sinai extension of the Peierls argument is used to establish the existence at low temperatures of four different types of ordered surface-reconstructed phases.

  4. On the existence of anisotropic cosmological models in higher order theories of gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Middleton, Jonathan


    We investigate the behaviour on approach to the initial singularity in higher order extensions of general relativity by finding exact cosmological solutions for a wide class of models in which the Lagrangian is allowed to depend nonlinearly upon the three possible linear and quadratic scalars built from the Riemann tensor: R, R ab R ab and R abcd R abcd . We present new anisotropic vacuum solutions analogous to the Kasner solutions of general relativity and extend previous results to a much wider range of fourth-order theories of gravity. We discuss the implications of these results for the behaviour of the more general anisotropic Bianchi type VIII and IX cosmologies as the initial singularity is approached. Furthermore, we also consider the existence conditions for some other simple anisotropic Bianchi I vacuum solutions in which the expansion in each direction is of exponential, rather than power-law behaviour and their relevance for cosmic 'no-hair' theorems.

  5. Functional Coverage of the Human Genome by Existing Structures, Structural Genomics Targets, and Homology Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)


    Full Text Available The bias in protein structure and function space resulting from experimental limitations and targeting of particular functional classes of proteins by structural biologists has long been recognized, but never continuously quantified. Using the Enzyme Commission and the Gene Ontology classifications as a reference frame, and integrating structure data from the Protein Data Bank (PDB, target sequences from the structural genomics projects, structure homology derived from the SUPERFAMILY database, and genome annotations from Ensembl and NCBI, we provide a quantified view, both at the domain and whole-protein levels, of the current and projected coverage of protein structure and function space relative to the human genome. Protein structures currently provide at least one domain that covers 37% of the functional classes identified in the genome; whole structure coverage exists for 25% of the genome. If all the structural genomics targets were solved (twice the current number of structures in the PDB, it is estimated that structures of one domain would cover 69% of the functional classes identified and complete structure coverage would be 44%. Homology models from existing experimental structures extend the 37% coverage to 56% of the genome as single domains and 25% to 31% for complete structures. Coverage from homology models is not evenly distributed by protein family, reflecting differing degrees of sequence and structure divergence within families. While these data provide coverage, conversely, they also systematically highlight functional classes of proteins for which structures should be determined. Current key functional families without structure representation are highlighted here; updated information on the "most wanted list" that should be solved is available on a weekly basis from

  6. Observational and Modeling Studies of Clouds and the Hydrological Cycle (United States)

    Somerville, Richard C. J.


    Our approach involved validating parameterizations directly against measurements from field programs, and using this validation to tune existing parameterizations and to guide the development of new ones. We have used a single-column model (SCM) to make the link between observations and parameterizations of clouds, including explicit cloud microphysics (e.g., prognostic cloud liquid water used to determine cloud radiative properties). Surface and satellite radiation measurements were used to provide an initial evaluation of the performance of the different parameterizations. The results of this evaluation will then used to develop improved cloud and cloud-radiation schemes, which were tested in GCM experiments.

  7. External Influences on Modeled and Observed Cloud Trends (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Zelinka, Mark; Klein, Stephen A.; Bonfils, Celine; Caldwell, Peter; Doutriaux, Charles; Santer, Benjamin D.; Taylor, Karl E.


    Understanding the cloud response to external forcing is a major challenge for climate science. This crucial goal is complicated by intermodel differences in simulating present and future cloud cover and by observational uncertainty. This is the first formal detection and attribution study of cloud changes over the satellite era. Presented herein are CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5) model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to three cloud properties: the latitudes at which the zonally averaged total cloud fraction (CLT) is maximized or minimized, the zonal average CLT at these latitudes, and the height of high clouds at these latitudes. By considering simultaneous changes in all three properties, the authors define a coherent multivariate fingerprint of cloud response to external forcing and use models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) to calculate the average time to detect these changes. It is found that given perfect satellite cloud observations beginning in 1983, the models indicate that a detectable multivariate signal should have already emerged. A search is then made for signals of external forcing in two observational datasets: ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) and PATMOS-x (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Pathfinder Atmospheres - Extended). The datasets are both found to show a poleward migration of the zonal CLT pattern that is incompatible with forced CMIP5 models. Nevertheless, a detectable multivariate signal is predicted by models over the PATMOS-x time period and is indeed present in the dataset. Despite persistent observational uncertainties, these results present a strong case for continued efforts to improve these existing satellite observations, in addition to planning for new missions.

  8. Ratchetting deformation behavior of modified 9Cr-1Mo steel and applicability of existing constitutive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yaguchi, Masatsugu; Takahashi, Yukio


    A series of ratchetting deformation tests was conducted on modified 9Cr-1Mo steel at 550degC under uniaxial and multiaxial stress conditions. Ratchetting behavior depended on various parameters such as mean stress, stress/strain rate and those range, hold time and prior cyclic deformation. Under uniaxial conditions, untraditional ratchetting behavior was observed; the ratchetting deformation rate was the fastest when the stress ratio was equal to -1, while no ratchetting deformation was predicted by conventional constitutive models. In order to discuss the reason for this untraditional ratchetting behavior, a lot of monotonic compression tests were conducted and compared with tension data. The material showed a difference of deformation resistance of about 30 MPa between tension and compression at high strain rates. Furthermore, the authors' previous model and Ohno-Wang model were applied to the test conditions to evaluate their description capability for ratchetting behavior of the material. It was shown that the authors' model has a tendency to overestimate the ratchetting deformation and that the Ohno-Wang model has a tendency to underestimate the uniaxial ratchetting deformation at small stress rates. (author)

  9. Benthic-Pelagic Coupling in Biogeochemical and Climate Models: Existing Approaches, Recent developments and Roadblocks (United States)

    Arndt, Sandra


    Marine sediments are key components in the Earth System. They host the largest carbon reservoir on Earth, provide the only long term sink for atmospheric CO2, recycle nutrients and represent the most important climate archive. Biogeochemical processes in marine sediments are thus essential for our understanding of the global biogeochemical cycles and climate. They are first and foremost, donor controlled and, thus, driven by the rain of particulate material from the euphotic zone and influenced by the overlying bottom water. Geochemical species may undergo several recycling loops (e.g. authigenic mineral precipitation/dissolution) before they are either buried or diffuse back to the water column. The tightly coupled and complex pelagic and benthic process interplay thus delays recycling flux, significantly modifies the depositional signal and controls the long-term removal of carbon from the ocean-atmosphere system. Despite the importance of this mutual interaction, coupled regional/global biogeochemical models and (paleo)climate models, which are designed to assess and quantify the transformations and fluxes of carbon and nutrients and evaluate their response to past and future perturbations of the climate system either completely neglect marine sediments or incorporate a highly simplified representation of benthic processes. On the other end of the spectrum, coupled, multi-component state-of-the-art early diagenetic models have been successfully developed and applied over the past decades to reproduce observations and quantify sediment-water exchange fluxes, but cannot easily be coupled to pelagic models. The primary constraint here is the high computation cost of simulating all of the essential redox and equilibrium reactions within marine sediments that control carbon burial and benthic recycling fluxes: a barrier that is easily exacerbated if a variety of benthic environments are to be spatially resolved. This presentation provides an integrative overview of

  10. Some safe and sensible shortcuts for efficiently upscaled updates of existing elevation models. (United States)

    Knudsen, Thomas; Aasbjerg Nielsen, Allan


    through the processor, individually contributing to the nearest grid posts in a memory mapped grid file. Algorithmically this is very efficient, but it would be even more efficient if we did not have to handle so much data. Another of our recent case studies focuses on this. The basic idea is to ignore data that does not tell us anything new. We do this by looking at anomalies between the current height model and the new point cloud, then computing a correction grid for the current model. Points with insignificant anomalies are simply removed from the point cloud, and the correction grid is computed using the remaining point anomalies only. Hence, we only compute updates in areas of significant change, speeding up the process, and giving us new insight of the precision of the current model which in turn results in improved metadata for both the current and the new model. Currently we focus on simple approaches for creating a smooth update process for integration of heterogeneous data sets. On the other hand, as years go by and multiple generations of data become available, more advanced approaches will probably become necessary (e.g. a multi campaign bundle adjustment, improving the oldest data using cross-over adjustment with newer campaigns). But to prepare for such approaches, it is important already now to organize and evaluate the ancillary (GPS, INS) and engineering level data for the current data sets. This is essential if future generations of DEM users should be able to benefit from future conceptions of "some safe and sensible shortcuts for efficiently upscaled updates of existing elevation models".

  11. Modeling of Al wire-array implosions on existing generators with the ''ZPIMP'' Code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giuliani, J.L. Jr.; Rogerson, J.; Davis, J.; Spielman, R.


    Aluminum wire-array implosion experiments have been performed on a number of pulsed-power generators, including Double EAGLE, SATURN, PHOENIX, and BLACKJACK 5. Recently, the measured K-shell emissions (> 1 keV) from the first three machines were compared with predictions of the Whitney-Thornhill scaling law. The present report employs a numerical simulation code to make a similar comparison. The code ZPIMP models the imploding Al plasma shell as a single, but variable width, zone. Two MMHD momentum equations, an electron energy, an ion energy, and a magnetic diffusion equation are solved in a coupled fashion to a lumped driver circuit model. Artificial viscosity is included in this Lagrangian formulation. Al ionization dynamics and probability-of-escape radiation transport are calculated self-consistently. Atomic structure is included for all ionization stages of the Al. Results for SATURN simulations and comparisons with data will be presented in an initial radius-mass loading plane. When the region interior to the primary plasma shell is treated as an adiabatic gas, the simulations match the existing data remarkably well for energetic implosions. The significant differences for the few small η implosion are discussed. Comparisons with the other three generators mentioned above are anticipated. The report will focus on significant trends between the studied generators

  12. Evaluation of the existing triple point path models with new experimental data: proposal of an original empirical formulation (United States)

    Boutillier, J.; Ehrhardt, L.; De Mezzo, S.; Deck, C.; Magnan, P.; Naz, P.; Willinger, R.


    With the increasing use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), the need for better mitigation, either for building integrity or for personal security, increases in importance. Before focusing on the interaction of the shock wave with a target and the potential associated damage, knowledge must be acquired regarding the nature of the blast threat, i.e., the pressure-time history. This requirement motivates gaining further insight into the triple point (TP) path, in order to know precisely which regime the target will encounter (simple reflection or Mach reflection). Within this context, the purpose of this study is to evaluate three existing TP path empirical models, which in turn are used in other empirical models for the determination of the pressure profile. These three TP models are the empirical function of Kinney, the Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC) curves, and the model of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). As discrepancies are observed between these models, new experimental data were obtained to test their reliability and a new promising formulation is proposed for scaled heights of burst ranging from 24.6-172.9 cm/kg^{1/3}.

  13. Evaluation of the existing triple point path models with new experimental data: proposal of an original empirical formulation (United States)

    Boutillier, J.; Ehrhardt, L.; De Mezzo, S.; Deck, C.; Magnan, P.; Naz, P.; Willinger, R.


    With the increasing use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), the need for better mitigation, either for building integrity or for personal security, increases in importance. Before focusing on the interaction of the shock wave with a target and the potential associated damage, knowledge must be acquired regarding the nature of the blast threat, i.e., the pressure-time history. This requirement motivates gaining further insight into the triple point (TP) path, in order to know precisely which regime the target will encounter (simple reflection or Mach reflection). Within this context, the purpose of this study is to evaluate three existing TP path empirical models, which in turn are used in other empirical models for the determination of the pressure profile. These three TP models are the empirical function of Kinney, the Unified Facilities Criteria (UFC) curves, and the model of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC). As discrepancies are observed between these models, new experimental data were obtained to test their reliability and a new promising formulation is proposed for scaled heights of burst ranging from 24.6-172.9 cm/kg^{1/3}.

  14. Modeling Boston: A workflow for the efficient generation and maintenance of urban building energy models from existing geospatial datasets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cerezo Davila, Carlos; Reinhart, Christoph F.; Bemis, Jamie L.


    City governments and energy utilities are increasingly focusing on the development of energy efficiency strategies for buildings as a key component in emission reduction plans and energy supply strategies. To support these diverse needs, a new generation of Urban Building Energy Models (UBEM) is currently being developed and validated to estimate citywide hourly energy demands at the building level. However, in order for cities to rely on UBEMs, effective model generation and maintenance workflows are needed based on existing urban data structures. Within this context, the authors collaborated with the Boston Redevelopment Authority to develop a citywide UBEM based on official GIS datasets and a custom building archetype library. Energy models for 83,541 buildings were generated and assigned one of 52 use/age archetypes, within the CAD modelling environment Rhinoceros3D. The buildings were then simulated using the US DOE EnergyPlus simulation program, and results for buildings of the same archetype were crosschecked against data from the US national energy consumption surveys. A district-level intervention combining photovoltaics with demand side management is presented to demonstrate the ability of UBEM to provide actionable information. Lack of widely available archetype templates and metered energy data, were identified as key barriers within existing workflows that may impede cities from effectively applying UBEM to guide energy policy. - Highlights: • Data requirements for Urban Building Energy Models are reviewed. • A workflow for UBEM generation from available GIS datasets is developed. • A citywide demand simulation model for Boston is generated and tested. • Limitations for UBEM in current urban data systems are identified and discussed. • Model application for energy management policy is shown in an urban PV scenario.

  15. Models Constraints from Observations of Active Galaxies (United States)

    Riffel, R.; Pastoriza, M. G.; Rodríguez-Ardila, A.; Dametto, N. Z.; Ruschel-Dutra, D.; Riffel, R. A.; Storchi-Bergmann, T.; Martins, L. P.; Mason, R.; Ho, L. C.; Palomar XD Team


    Studying the unresolved stellar content of galaxies generally involves disentangling the various components contributing to the spectral energy distribution (SED), and fitting a combination of simple stellar populations (SSPs) to derive information about age, metallicity, and star formation history. In the near-infrared (NIR, 0.85-2.5 μm), the thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase - the last stage of the evolution of intermediate-mass (M ≲ 6 M⊙) stars - is a particularly important component of the SSP models. These stars can dominate the emission of stellar populations with ages ˜ 0.2-2 Gyr, being responsible for roughly half of the luminosity in the K band. In addition, when trying to describe the continuum observed in active galactic nuclei, the signatures of the central engine and from the dusty torus cannot be ignored. Over the past several years we have developed a method to disentangle these three components. Our synthesis shows significant differences between Seyfert 1 (Sy 1) and Seyfert 2 (Sy 2) galaxies. The central few hundred parsecs of our galaxy sample contain a substantial fraction of intermediate-age populations with a mean metallicity near solar. Two-dimensional mapping of the near-infrared stellar population of the nuclear region of active galaxies suggests that there is a spatial correlation between the intermediate-age stellar population and a partial ring of low stellar velocity dispersion (σ*). Such an age is consistent with a scenario in which the origin of the low-σ* rings is a past event which triggered an inflow of gas and formed stars which still keep the colder kinematics of the gas from which they have formed. We also discuss the fingerprints of features attributed to TP-AGB stars in the spectra of the nuclear regions of nearby galaxies.

  16. A Model for Subglacial Flooding Along a Pre-Existing Hydrological Network during the Rapid Drainage of Supraglacial Lakes (United States)

    Adhikari, S.; Tsai, V. C.


    Increasingly large numbers of supraglacial lakes form and drain every summer on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Presently, about 15% of the lakes drain rapidly within the timescale of a few hours, and the vertical discharge of water during these events may find a pre-existing subglacial hydrological network, particularly late in the melt season. Here, we present a model for subglacial flooding applied specifically to such circumstances. Given the short timescale of events, we treat ice and bed as purely elastic and assume that the fluid flow in the subglacial conduit is fully turbulent. We evaluate the effect of initial conduit opening, wi, on the rate of flood propagation and along-flow profiles of field variables. We find that floods propagate much faster, particularly in early times, for larger wi. For wi = 10 and 1 cm, for example, floods travel about 68% and 50% farther than in the fully coupled ice/bed scenario after 2 hours of drainage, respectively. Irrespective of the magnitude of wi, we also find that there exists a region of positive pressure gradient. This reversal of pressure gradient draws water in from the farfield and causes the conduit to narrow, respecting mass continuity. While the general shape of the profiles appears similar, greater conduit opening is found for larger wi. For wi = 10 and 1 cm, for example, the elastostatic conduit opening at the point of injection is about 1.39 and 1.26 times that of the fully coupled ice/bed scenario after 2 hours of drainage. The hypothesis of a pre-existing thin film of water is consistent with the spirit of contemporary state-of-the-art continuum models for subglacial hydrology. This also results in avoiding the pressure singularity, which is inherent in classical hydro-fracture models applied to fully coupled ice/bed scenarios, thus opening an avenue for integrating the likes of our model within continuum hydrological models. Furthermore, we foresee that the theory presented can be used to potentially infer

  17. Accelerated aging exacerbates a pre-existing pathology in a tau transgenic mouse model. (United States)

    Bodea, Liviu-Gabriel; Evans, Harrison Tudor; Van der Jeugd, Ann; Ittner, Lars M; Delerue, Fabien; Kril, Jillian; Halliday, Glenda; Hodges, John; Kiernan, Mathew C; Götz, Jürgen


    Age is a critical factor in the prevalence of tauopathies, including Alzheimer's disease. To observe how an aging phenotype interacts with and affects the pathological intracellular accumulation of hyperphosphorylated tau, the tauopathy mouse model pR5 (expressing P301L mutant human tau) was back-crossed more than ten times onto a senescence-accelerated SAMP8 background to establish the new strain, SApT. Unlike SAMP8 mice, pR5 mice are characterized by a robust tau pathology particularly in the amygdala and hippocampus. Analysis of age-matched SApT mice revealed that pathological tau phosphorylation was increased in these brain regions compared to those in the parental pR5 strain. Moreover, as revealed by immunohistochemistry, phosphorylation of critical tau phospho-epitopes (P-Ser202/P-Ser205 and P-Ser235) was significantly increased in the amygdala of SApT mice in an age-dependent manner, suggesting an age-associated effect of tau phosphorylation. Anxiety tests revealed that the older cohort of SApT mice (10 months vs. 8 months) exhibited a behavioural pattern similar to that observed for age-matched tau transgenic pR5 mice and not the SAMP8 parental mice. Learning and memory, however, appeared to be governed by the accelerated aging background of the SAMP8 strain, as at both ages investigated, SAMP8 and SApT mice showed a decreased learning capacity compared to pR5 mice. We therefore conclude that accelerated aging exacerbates pathological tau phosphorylation, leading to changes in normal behaviour. These findings further suggest that SApT mice may be a useful novel model in which to study the role of a complex geriatric phenotype in tauopathy. © 2017 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Should we trust models or observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellsaesser, H.W.


    Scientists and laymen alike already trust observational data more than theories-this is made explicit in all formalizations of the scientific method. It was demonstrated again during the Supersonic Transport (SST) controversy by the continued efforts to reconcile the computed effect of the 1961-62 nuclear test series on the ozone layer with the observational record. Scientists, caught in the focus of the political limelight, sometimes, demonstrated their faith in the primacy of observations by studiously ignoring or dismissing as erroneous data at variance with the prevailing theoretical consensus-thereby stalling the theoretical modifications required to accommodate the observations. (author)

  19. The existence of fertile hybrids of closely related model earthworm species, Eisenia andrei and E. fetida.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Plytycz

    Full Text Available Lumbricid earthworms Eisenia andrei (Ea and E. fetida (Ef are simultaneous hermaphrodites with reciprocal insemination capable of self-fertilization while the existence of hybridization of these two species was still debatable. During the present investigation fertile hybrids of Ea and Ef were detected. Virgin specimens of Ea and Ef were laboratory crossed (Ea+Ef and their progeny was doubly identified. 1 -identified by species-specific maternally derived haploid mitochondrial DNA sequences of the COI gene being either 'a' for worms hatched from Ea ova or 'f' for worms hatched from Ef ova. 2 -identified by the diploid maternal/paternal nuclear DNA sequences of 28s rRNA gene being either 'AA' for Ea, 'FF' for Ef, or AF/FA for their hybrids derived either from the 'aA' or 'fF' ova, respectively. Among offspring of Ea+Ef pairs in F1 generation there were mainly aAA and fFF earthworms resulted from the facilitated self-fertilization and some aAF hybrids from aA ova but none fFA hybrids from fF ova. In F2 generation resulting from aAF hybrids mated with aAA a new generations of aAA and aAF hybrids were noticed, while aAF hybrids mated with fFF gave fFF and both aAF and fFA hybrids. Hybrids intercrossed together produced plenty of cocoons but no hatchlings independently whether aAF+aAF or aAF+fFA were mated. These results indicated that Ea and Ef species, easy to maintain in laboratory and commonly used as convenient models in biomedicine and ecotoxicology, may also serve in studies on molecular basis of interspecific barriers and mechanisms of introgression and speciation. Hypothetically, their asymmetrical hybridization can be modified by some external factors.

  20. Formation of calcareous nodules in loess-paleosol sequences: Reviews of existing models with a proposed new "per evapotranspiration model" (United States)

    Li, Yanrong; Zhang, Weiwei; Aydin, Adnan; Deng, Xiaohong


    Loess is a product of aeolian deposition during Quaternary glaciation cycles. Loess-paleosol sequences are rich in calcareous nodules (CNs). In the literature, two models are widely cited for the formation of CNs, namely "per descendum" and "per ascendum". However, there has been no direct testing or monitoring to support either of these contradictory models. This paper reviews a large number of multidisciplinary literature to evaluate the consistency, reliability and rationality of these two models. Three main conclusions are drawn: (1) the causative factors (variation of pH value along loess-paleosol sequence, decrease of CO2 partial pressure, and reduction of solvent water) that are used to support the per descendum model do not completely explain the supersaturation of infiltration solution with CaCO3, thereby making this model questionable; (2) the per ascendum model explains the formation of CNs along narrow horizons through upward evaporation; however, it fails to produce sporadic distributions and irregular shapes of nodules on loess slope faces and the frequent appearance of nodules around plant roots. In order to reconcile these deficiencies, we conducted an extensive field survey in various parts of Shanxi province. Based on this new set of observations, it was concluded that the "per ascendum" model can be extended to explain all occurrences of CNs. This extended model is called "per evapotranspiration".

  1. Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freya M Shearer, BSc


    Full Text Available Summary: Background: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. Methods: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa. We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. Findings: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the

  2. Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis. (United States)

    Shearer, Freya M; Longbottom, Joshua; Browne, Annie J; Pigott, David M; Brady, Oliver J; Kraemer, Moritz U G; Marinho, Fatima; Yactayo, Sergio; de Araújo, Valdelaine E M; da Nóbrega, Aglaêr A; Fullman, Nancy; Ray, Sarah E; Mosser, Jonathan F; Stanaway, Jeffrey D; Lim, Stephen S; Reiner, Robert C; Moyes, Catherine L; Hay, Simon I; Golding, Nick


    Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016

  3. A comparative analysis of reactor lower head debris cooling models employed in the existing severe accident analysis codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, K.I.; Kim, D.H.; Kim, S.B.; Kim, H.D.


    MELCOR and MAAP4 are the representative severe accident analysis codes which have been developed for the integral analysis of the phenomenological reactor lower head corium cooling behavior. Main objectives of the present study is to identify merits and disadvantages of each relevant model through the comparative analysis of the lower plenum corium cooling models employed in these two codes. The final results will be utilized for the development of LILAC phenomenological models and for the continuous improvement of the existing MELCOR reactor lower head models, which are currently being performed at the KAERI. For these purposes, first, nine reference models are selected featuring the lower head corium behavior based on the existing experimental evidences and related models. Then main features of the selected models have been critically analyzed, and finally merits and disadvantages of each corresponding model have been summarized in the view point of realistic corium behavior and reasonable modeling. Being on these evidences, summarized and presented the potential improvements for developing more advanced models. The present study has been focused on the qualitative comparison of each model and so more detailed quantitative analysis is strongly required to obtain the final conclusions for their merits and disadvantages. In addition, in order to compensate the limitations of the current model, required further studies relating closely the detailed mechanistic models with the molten material movement and heat transfer based on phase-change in the porous medium, to the existing simple models. (author). 36 refs

  4. Assessment of existing sediment transport models for sand barrier dynamics under wave and currents

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Thuy, T.T.V.; Nghiem, L.T.; Jayakumar, S.; Nielsen, P.

    model, the heuristic model, the grab and dump model of Nielsen (1988), Ribberink & Al-Salem (1994) and Nielsen’s (2006) were tested against experimental data. The results illustrate the challenges related to complicated vertical velocity distributions...

  5. Bicycle Rider Control: Observations, Modeling & Experiments


    Kooijman, J.D.G.


    Bicycle designers traditionally develop bicycles based on experience and trial and error. Adopting modern engineering tools to model bicycle and rider dynamics and control is another method for developing bicycles. This method has the potential to evaluate the complete design space, and thereby develop well handling bicycles for specific user groups in a much shorter time span. The recent benchmarking of the Whipple bicycle model for the balance and steer of a bicycle is an opening enabling t...

  6. Modeling and forecasting the supply of oil and gas: a survey of existing approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walls, M.A.


    This paper surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling. The models fall into two broad categories: geologic/engineering and econometric. Two types of geologic/engineering models are surveyed - play analysis, or simulation models and discovery process models. A third category of supply models, 'hybrids', which contain features of both econometric and discovery process models are also discussed. Particular attention is paid to whether or not the models have linkages between a dynamic model of producer optimizing behaviour and the factors governing supply of the resource; whether or not expectations of future prices, costs, and other stochastic variables are incorporated; whether the physical characteristics of non-renewable resources are captured; and how well the models perform. The paper concludes that the best path for future research efforts is a hybrid approach where the econometric component is derived from a stochastic dynamic optimization model of exploration behaviour. 51 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  7. An observational study comparing the prototype device with the existing device for the effective visualization of invisible veins in elderly patients in Japan. (United States)

    Kimori, Keiko; Sugama, Junko; Nakatani, Toshio; Nakayama, Kazuya; Miyati, Tosiaki; Sanada, Hiromi


    To compare the performance on the detection of the invisible veins between our modified prototype device and an existing device in elderly hospitalized patients. A prospective, cross-sectional, and observational study was performed in the invisible veins in elderly patients. The major variables, skin color near the invisible veins, and diameter and depth of the invisible veins were measured. The vein visualization rate was calculated as the ratio of the visualized veins to the invisible veins by the visualization device. We analyzed 53 invisible veins in the cubital fossa and 56 invisible veins in the forearm in a total of 72 patients (median age, 73 years). The visualization rate for our prototype device was higher than that for an existing device in the cubital fossa and the forearm sites. The visualized veins of the prototype device had a higher intensity ratio than that of an existing device. No significant differences were observed in the body mass index, vein depth, and vein diameter of the visualized veins at the cubital fossa and forearm sites. The prototype surpassed the existing device in visualizing the invisible veins. However, the prototype was unable to visualize all the invisible veins. We need to look for ways to reduce noise and to visualize the invisible veins, and the visualization rate of devices needs to be investigated in further association with the percentage of success with actual intravenous access and locating time to vein.

  8. Local existence for a general model of size-dependent population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Kato


    Full Text Available We shall investigate a size structured population dynamics with aging and birth functions having general forms. The growth rate we deal with depends not only on the size but also on time. We show the existence of a local solution and continuous dependence on the initial data, which shows the uniqueness of the solution as well.

  9. Existence and uniqueness of positive solutions for a nonlocal dispersal population model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Wen Sun


    Full Text Available In this article, we study the solutions of a nonlocal dispersal equation with a spatial weight representing competitions and aggregation. To overcome the limitations of comparison principles, we introduce new definitions of upper-lower solutions. The proof of existence and uniqueness of positive solutions is based on the method of monotone iteration sequences.

  10. Television Advertising and Children's Observational Modeling. (United States)

    Atkin, Charles K.

    This paper assesses advertising effects on children and adolescents from a social learning theory perspective, emphasizing imitative performance of vicariously reinforced consumption stimuli. The basic elements of social psychologist Albert Bandura's modeling theory are outlined. Then specific derivations from the theory are applied to the problem…

  11. Bicycle Rider Control : Observations, Modeling & Experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooijman, J.D.G.


    Bicycle designers traditionally develop bicycles based on experience and trial and error. Adopting modern engineering tools to model bicycle and rider dynamics and control is another method for developing bicycles. This method has the potential to evaluate the complete design space, and thereby

  12. Observational consequences of a dark interaction model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos, M. de, E-mail: campos@if.uff.b [Roraima Federal University (UFRR), Paricarana, Boa Vista, RO (Brazil). Physics Dept.


    We study a model with decay of dark energy and creation of the dark matter particles. We integrate the field equations and find the transition redshift where the evolution process of the universe change the accelerated expansion, and discuss the luminosity distance, acoustic oscillations and the state finder parameters. (author)

  13. A Review of the Appropriateness of Existing Micro- and Meso-level Models of Athlete Development within Equestrian Sport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Haan, D.M.


    The aim of this paper was to use a case study approach to review the appropriateness of existing micro- and meso-level models of athlete development within the sport specific context of equestrianism. At a micro-level the Long Term Athlete Development (LTAD) model was chosen. At a meso-level, the

  14. Developing tolled-route demand estimation capabilities for Texas : opportunities for enhancement of existing models. (United States)


    The travel demand models developed and applied by the Transportation Planning and Programming Division : (TPP) of the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) are daily three-step models (i.e., trip generation, trip : distribution, and traffic assi...

  15. Comparison between seismic vulnerability models and experimental dynamic properties of existing buildings in France


    MICHEL, C; GUEGUEN, Philippe; LESTUZZI, P; BARD, Pierre Yves


    Elastic fundamental frequency is a key-parameter of simplified seismic design and vulnerability assessment methods. Empirical relationships exist in codes to estimate this frequency but they miss experimental data to validate them accounting for national feature of building design and, above all, corresponding uncertainties. Even if resonance frequency extracted from ambient vibrations may be larger than the elastic frequency (at yield) generally used in earthquake engineering, ambient vibrat...

  16. On the global existence for a regularized model of viscoelastic non-Newtonian fluid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kreml, Ondřej; Pokorný, M.; Šalom, P.


    Roč. 139, č. 2 (2015), s. 149-163 ISSN 0010-1354 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-00522S Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : global existence * Lipschitz truncation * non-Newtonian fluid * viscoelastic fluid Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.333, year: 2015

  17. Existence and stability of periodic solutions for a delayed prey-predator model with diffusion effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongwei Liang


    Full Text Available Existence and stability of spatially periodic solutions for a delay prey-predator diffusion system are concerned in this work. We obtain that the system can generate the spatially nonhomogeneous periodic solutions when the diffusive rates are suitably small. This result demonstrates that the diffusion plays an important role on deriving the complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Meanwhile, the stability of the spatially periodic solutions is also studied. Finally, in order to verify our theoretical results, some numerical simulations are also included.

  18. Using Mathematical Modeling and Set-Based Design Principles to Recommend an Existing CVL Design (United States)


    searching existing data sources , gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments...can be used to produce the ideal CVL design for a future maritime conflict scenario. The scenario is based on the Naval Postgraduate School’s...vulnerability in future maritime conflict . Using smaller aircraft carriers will reduce the risk to grand strategy as well as life cycle and operating costs

  19. Existence and large time behavior for a stochastic model of modified magnetohydrodynamic equations (United States)

    Razafimandimby, Paul André; Sango, Mamadou


    In this paper, we study a system of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations describing the motion of turbulent non-Newtonian media in the presence of fluctuating magnetic field. The system is basically obtained by a coupling of the dynamical equations of a non-Newtonian fluids having p-structure and the Maxwell equations. We mainly show the existence of weak martingale solutions and their exponential decay when time goes to infinity.

  20. Spectrophotometric Modeling of MAHLI Goniometer Observations (United States)

    Liang, W.; Johnson, J. R.; Hayes, A.; Lemmon, M. T.; Bell, J. F., III; Grundy, W. M.; Deen, R. G.


    The Mars Hand Lends Imager (MAHLI) on the Curiosity rover's robotic arm was used as a goniometer to acquire a multiple-viewpoint data set on sol 544 [1]. Images were acquired at 20 arm positions, all centered at the same location and from a near-constant distance of 1.0 m from the surface. Although this sequence was acquired at only one time of day ( 13:30 LTST), it provided phase angle coverage from 0-110°. Images were converted to radiance from calibrated PDS files (DRXX) using radiance scaling factors and MAHLI focus position counts in an algorithm that rescaled the data to match the Mastcam M-34 calibration via comparison of sky images acquired during the mission. Converted MAHLI radiance values from an image of the Mastcam calibration target compared favorably in the red, green, and blue Bayer filters to M-34 radiance values from an image of the same target taken minutes afterwards. The 20 MAHLI images allowed construction of a digital terrain model (DTM), although images with shadows cast by the rover arm were more challenging to include. Their current absence restricts the lowest phase angles available to about 17°. The DTM enables calculation of surface normals that can be used with sky models to correct for diffuse reflectance on surface facets prior to Hapke modeling [cf. 2-6]. Regions of interest (ROIs) were extracted using one of the low emission-angle images as a template. ROI unit types included soils, light-toned surfaces (5 cm felsic rock "Nita"), dark-toned rocks with variable textures and dust cover, and larger areas representative of the average surface (see attached figure). These ROIs were translated from the template image to the other images through a matching of DTM three-dimensional coordinates. Preliminary phase curves (prior to atmospheric correction) show that soil-dominated surfaces are most backscattering, whereas rocks are least backscattering, and light-toned surfaces exhibit wavelength-dependent scattering. Future work will

  1. Comparison of model-observer and human-observer performance for breast tomosynthesis: effect of reconstruction and acquisition parameters (United States)

    Das, Mini; Gifford, Howard C.


    The problem of optimizing the acquisition and reconstruction parameters for breast-cancer detection with digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is becoming increasingly important due to the potential of DBT for clinical screening. Ideally, one wants a set of parameters suitable for both microcalcification (MC) and mass detection that specifies the lowest possible radiation dose to the patient. Attacking this multiparametric optimization problem using human-observer studies (which are the gold standard) would be very expensive. On the other hand, there are numerous limitations to having existing mathematical model observers as replacements. Our aim is to develop a model observer that can reliably mimic human observers at clinically realistic DBT detection tasks. In this paper, we present a novel visual-search (VS) model observer for MC detection and localization. Validation of this observer against human data was carried out in a study with simulated DBT test images. Radiation dose was a study parameter, with tested acquisition levels of 0.7, 1.0 and 1.5 mGy. All test images were reconstructed with a penalized-maximum-likelihood reconstruction method. Good agreement at all three dose levels was obtained between the VS and human observers. We believe that this new model observer has the potential to take the field of image-quality research in a new direction with a number of practical clinical ramifications.

  2. Evaluation of pre-existing neuropathy and bortezomib retreatment as risk factors to develop severe neuropathy in a mouse model. (United States)

    Bruna, Jordi; Alé, Albert; Velasco, Roser; Jaramillo, Jessica; Navarro, Xavier; Udina, Esther


    Pre-existing neuropathy, a not uncommon feature in oncologic patients, is a potential but non-confirmed risk factor to develop early or severe chemotherapy-induced neuropathy. The main goal of this study is to evaluate the role of pre-existing neuropathy induced by vincristine (VNC) or bortezomib (BTZ) as a risk factor to develop more severe BTZ-induced neuropathy in a mouse model. VNC, at doses of 1 and 1.5 mg/kg given twice per week for 4 weeks, induced a moderate and severe sensory-motor neuropathy, primarily axonal, with predominant involvement of myelinated sensory axons. The neuropathy induced by BTZ at dose of 1 mg/kg given twice per week for 6 weeks was a mild axonal sensory neuropathy involving myelinated and unmyelinated fibers. The neuropathy in mice previously treated and retreated with the same schedule of BTZ after 4 weeks of washout period was similar in profile and severity to the one observed after the first treatment. When basal neuropathy was classified as moderate (most of BTZ-treated animals) or severe (all VNC-treated animals and two BTZ-treated animals), there was a more marked decline in sensory nerve function during BTZ retreatment in the group with basal severe neuropathy (-86%) than in the groups with basal mild (-57%) or without neuropathy (-52%; p < 0.001). Histopathological findings supported the functional results. Therefore, this study shows that the presence of a severe neuropathy previous to treatment with an antitumoral agent, such as BTZ, results in a more marked involvement of peripheral nerves. © 2011 Peripheral Nerve Society.

  3. Interacting Dark Energy Models and Observations (United States)

    Shojaei, Hamed; Urioste, Jazmin


    Dark energy is one of the mysteries of the twenty first century. Although there are candidates resembling some features of dark energy, there is no single model describing all the properties of dark energy. Dark energy is believed to be the most dominant component of the cosmic inventory, but a lot of models do not consider any interaction between dark energy and other constituents of the cosmic inventory. Introducing an interaction will change the equation governing the behavior of dark energy and matter and creates new ways to explain cosmic coincidence problem. In this work we studied how the Hubble parameter and density parameters evolve with time in the presence of certain types of interaction. The interaction serves as a way to convert dark energy into matter to avoid a dark energy-dominated universe by creating new equilibrium points for the differential equations. Then we will use numerical analysis to predict the values of distance moduli at different redshifts and compare them to the values for the distance moduli obtained by WMAP (Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe). Undergraduate Student

  4. Observational constraints on successful model of quintessential Inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geng, Chao-Qiang [Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065 (China); Lee, Chung-Chi [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Sami, M. [Centre for Theoretical Physics, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025 (India); Saridakis, Emmanuel N. [Physics Division, National Technical University of Athens, 15780 Zografou Campus, Athens (Greece); Starobinsky, Alexei A., E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail:, E-mail: [L. D. Landau Institute for Theoretical Physics RAS, Moscow 119334 (Russian Federation)


    We study quintessential inflation using a generalized exponential potential V (φ)∝ exp(−λ φ {sup n} / M {sub Pl} {sup n} ), n >1, the model admits slow-roll inflation at early times and leads to close-to-scaling behaviour in the post inflationary era with an exit to dark energy at late times. We present detailed investigations of the inflationary stage in the light of the Planck 2015 results, study post-inflationary dynamics and analytically confirm the existence of an approximately scaling solution. Additionally, assuming that standard massive neutrinos are non-minimally coupled, makes the field φ dominant once again at late times giving rise to present accelerated expansion of the Universe. We derive observational constraints on the field and time-dependent neutrino masses. In particular, for n =6 (8), the parameter λ is constrained to be, log λ > −7.29 (−11.7); the model produces the spectral index of the power spectrum of primordial scalar (matter density) perturbations as n {sub s} = 0.959 ± 0.001 (0.961 ± 0.001) and tiny tensor-to-scalar ratio, r <1.72 × 10{sup −2} (2.32 × 10{sup −2}) respectively. Consequently, the upper bound on possible values of the sum of neutrino masses Σ m {sub ν} ∼< 2.5 eV significantly enhances compared to that in the standard ΛCDM model.

  5. The landscape of existing models for high-throughput exposure assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jolliet, O.; Fantke, Peter; Huang, L.


    in indoor air (Little et al., 2012; Liu et al., 2013), but they do not well account for SVOC sorption into indoor surfaces and absorption into human skins (Huang et al., 2017). Thus a more comprehensive simplified solution is needed for SVOCs . For personal Care Products, a mass balance model that accounts......Models are becoming increasingly available to model near-field fate and exposure, but not all are suited for high throughput. This presentation evaluates the available models for modeling exposure to chemicals in cosmetics, cleaning products, food contact and building materials. It assesses...... for skin permeation and volatilization as competing processes and that requires a limited number of readily available physiochemical properties would be suitable for LCA and HTS purposes. Thus, the multi-pathway exposure model for chemicals in cosmetics developed by Ernstoff et al.constitutes a suitable...

  6. The effect of physician gender on length of patient consultations: observational findings from the UK hospital setting and synthesis with existing studies. (United States)

    Jefferson, Laura; Bloor, Karen; Hewitt, Catherine


    To investigate the effect of physician gender on consultation length in UK hospital outpatient clinics and compare this, through meta-analysis, with previous studies outside the UK. Observational data on clinic times were analysed and findings were combined in a meta-analysis with existing studies investigating the effect of physician gender on consultation length. UK hospital practice. A total of 174 observations of outpatient consultations with 10 hospital specialists (consultants) from different specialties in two UK hospital trusts. Clinic times were recorded and analysis of consultation length was undertaken with physician gender as a covariate. Data were then synthesised through meta-analysis with 10 existing studies in this field. No statistically significant difference was found in the length of consultations for male and female doctors in these UK hospital settings. When pooled with existing studies, consultations with women doctors were found to be approximately two minutes longer than with men (p = 0.01). Findings from this analysis of clinic consultations in the UK National Health Service do not support previous studies, which were undertaken predominantly in North America and primary care settings. Overall, meta-analysis suggests doctors' gender may influence consultation length. Gender differences in communication should be considered in training clinicians and in overall clinical practice. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  7. Experimental model of chronic pancreatitis, a review - Does it really exist?


    Chowdhury, Riaz; Ochi, Koji; Harada, Hideo; Tanaka, Juntaro; Mizushima, Takaaki; Matsumoto, Shuji; Seno, Toshinobu; Ichimura, Mitsuko; Akiyama, Tsuneo; Yokota, Satoshi


    Experimental model of pancreatitis is mandatory for elucidating the pathobiology of the disease and also to see the response of a novel treatment. In addition, the need for an animal model of chronic pancreatitis is further strengthened by the relative inaccessibility and paucity of the human pancreatitis tissue. Whereas various models of acute pancreatitis and also of exocrine pancreatic tumor have been described, chronic pancr-eatitis has not been consistently reproduced in experimental ani...

  8. Comparison of observed and modeled longwave radiances (United States)

    Stone, Kenneth; Coakley, J. A., Jr.


    Calculated LW radiances based on NMC profiles of temperature and humidities for the month of July 1985 are obtained using standard procedures for performing radiative transfer calculations, and are within 3 percent (against a standard deviation of 4 percent) for global daytime land comparsions and within 1 percent (against a standard deviation of 1.5 percent) for a case study located over North America. The calculated values over the global data set show a slight trend with the surface temperature, and since there is no obvious trend with the column amount of water vapor, it is argued that the trend with temperature is evidence that absorption by other components (i.e., CO2O3 and other trace gases not included in these calculations) in the model could be improved.

  9. Shape Optimization for Navier-Stokes Equations with Algebraic Turbulence Model: Existence Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulicek, Miroslav; Haslinger, Jaroslav; Malek, Josef; Stebel, Jan


    We study a shape optimization problem for the paper machine headbox which distributes a mixture of water and wood fibers in the paper making process. The aim is to find a shape which a priori ensures the given velocity profile on the outlet part. The mathematical formulation leads to an optimal control problem in which the control variable is the shape of the domain representing the header, the state problem is represented by a generalized stationary Navier-Stokes system with nontrivial mixed boundary conditions. In this paper we prove the existence of solutions both to the generalized Navier-Stokes system and to the shape optimization problem

  10. Existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimator for models with a Kronecker product covariance structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ros, B.P.; Bijma, F.; de Munck, J.C.; de Gunst, M.C.M.


    This paper deals with multivariate Gaussian models for which the covariance matrix is a Kronecker product of two matrices. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, in particular of the covariance matrix. There is no explicit expression for the maximum likelihood estimator

  11. Vertical Distribution of Suspended Sediment under Steady Flow: Existing Theories and Fractional Derivative Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiqian Nie


    Full Text Available The fractional advection-diffusion equation (fADE model is a new approach to describe the vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration in steady turbulent flow. However, the advantages and parameter definition of the fADE model in describing the sediment suspension distribution are still unclear. To address this knowledge gap, this study first reviews seven models, including the fADE model, for the vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration in steady turbulent flow. The fADE model, among others, describes both Fickian and non-Fickian diffusive characteristics of suspended sediment, while the other six models assume that the vertical diffusion of suspended sediment follows Fick’s first law. Second, this study explores the sensitivity of the fractional index of the fADE model to the variation of particle sizes and sediment settling velocities, based on experimental data collected from the literatures. Finally, empirical formulas are developed to relate the fractional derivative order to particle size and sediment settling velocity. These formulas offer river engineers a substitutive way to estimate the fractional derivative order in the fADE model.

  12. Influence of osmotic pressure changes on the opening of existing cracks in 2 intervertebral disc models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wognum, Silvia; Huyghe, Jacques M.; Baaijens, Frank P. T.


    An experimental hydrogel model and a numerical mixture model were used to investigate why the disc herniates while osmotic pressure is decreasing. To investigate the influence of decreasing osmotic pressure on the opening of cracks in the disc. In the degeneration process, the disc changes structure

  13. Unified Program Design: Organizing Existing Programming Models, Delivery Options, and Curriculum (United States)

    Rubenstein, Lisa DaVia; Ridgley, Lisa M.


    A persistent problem in the field of gifted education has been the lack of categorization and delineation of gifted programming options. To address this issue, we propose Unified Program Design as a structural framework for gifted program models. This framework defines gifted programs as the combination of delivery methods and curriculum models.…

  14. Establishing the existence of a distance-based upper bound for a fuzzy DEA model using duality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soleimani-damaneh, M.


    In a recent paper [Soleimani-damaneh M. Fuzzy upper bounds and their applications. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2008;36:217-25.], I established the existence of a distance-based fuzzy upper bound for the objective function of a fuzzy DEA model, using the properties of a discussed signed distance, and provided an effective approach to solve that model. In this paper a new dual-based proof for the existence of the above-mentioned upper bound is provided which gives a useful insight into the theory of fuzzy DEA.

  15. Identifying best existing practice for characterization modeling in life cycle impact assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Goedkoop, Mark; Guinée, Jeroen


    Purpose: Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a field of active development. The last decade has seen prolific publication of new impact assessment methods covering many different impact categories and providing characterization factors that often deviate from each other for the same substance...... continents and still support aggregation of impact scores over the whole life cycle. For the impact categories human toxicity and ecotoxicity, we are now able to recommend a model, but the number of chemical substances in common use is so high that there is a need to address the substance data shortage...... of characterization models or factors were done in the project. From a total of 156 models, 91 were short listed as possible candidates for a recommendation within their impact category. Criteria were developed for analyzing the models within each impact category. The criteria addressed both scientific qualities...

  16. Europlanet/IDIS: Combining Diverse Planetary Observations and Models (United States)

    Schmidt, Walter; Capria, Maria Teresa; Chanteur, Gerard


    Planetary research involves a diversity of research fields from astrophysics and plasma physics to atmospheric physics, climatology, spectroscopy and surface imaging. Data from all these disciplines are collected from various space-borne platforms or telescopes, supported by modelling teams and laboratory work. In order to interpret one set of data often supporting data from different disciplines and other missions are needed while the scientist does not always have the detailed expertise to access and utilize these observations. The Integrated and Distributed Information System (IDIS) [1], developed in the framework of the Europlanet-RI project, implements a Virtual Observatory approach ([2] and [3]), where different data sets, stored in archives around the world and in different formats, are accessed, re-formatted and combined to meet the user's requirements without the need of familiarizing oneself with the different technical details. While observational astrophysical data from different observatories could already earlier be accessed via Virtual Observatories, this concept is now extended to diverse planetary data and related model data sets, spectral data bases etc. A dedicated XML-based Europlanet Data Model (EPN-DM) [4] was developed based on data models from the planetary science community and the Virtual Observatory approach. A dedicated editor simplifies the registration of new resources. As the EPN-DM is a super-set of existing data models existing archives as well as new spectroscopic or chemical data bases for the interpretation of atmospheric or surface observations, or even modeling facilities at research institutes in Europe or Russia can be easily integrated and accessed via a Table Access Protocol (EPN-TAP) [5] adapted from the corresponding protocol of the International Virtual Observatory Alliance [6] (IVOA-TAP). EPN-TAP allows to search catalogues, retrieve data and make them available through standard IVOA tools if the access to the archive

  17. Influence of f(R) models on the existence of anisotropic self-gravitating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yousaf, Z.; Sharif, M.; Bhatti, M.Z. [University of the Punjab, Department of Mathematics, Lahore (Pakistan); Ilyas, M. [University of the Punjab, Centre for High Energy Physics, Lahore (Pakistan)


    This paper aims to explore some realistic configurations of anisotropic spherical structures in the background of metric f(R) gravity, where R is the Ricci scalar. The solutions obtained by Krori and Barua are used to examine the nature of particular compact stars with three different modified gravity models. The behavior of material variables is analyzed through plots and the physical viability of compact stars is investigated through energy conditions. We also discuss the behavior of different forces, equation of state parameter, measure of anisotropy and Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equation in the modeling of stellar structures. The comparison from our graphical representations may provide evidence for the realistic and viable f(R) gravity models at both theoretical and the astrophysical scale. (orig.)

  18. Shape Optimization for Navier-Stokes Equations with Algebraic Turbulence Model: Existence Analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bulíček, M.; Haslinger, J.; Málek, J.; Stebel, Jan


    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2009), s. 185-212 ISSN 0095-4616 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06052 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : optimal shape design * paper machine headbox * incompressible non-Newtonian fluid * algebraic turbulence model * outflow boundary condition Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.757, year: 2009

  19. Three-Dimensional Model Test Study on the Existing Caisson Breakwater at Port of Castellon, Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Harck; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    This report present the results of 3-D physical model tests (length scale 1:60) carried out in a wave basin at Department of Civil Engineering, Aalborg University (AAU) on behalf of the client; BP OIL ESPAÑA. Associate Prof. Thomas Lykke Andersen and M.Sc. Jørgen Quvang Harck Nørgaard were in cha...

  20. Improved modelling of thermal energy savings potential in the existing residential stock using a newly available data source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dineen, D.; Rogan, F.; Ó Gallachóir, B.P.


    This paper presents a novel bottom up approach to modelling the energy savings potential of energy efficiency improvement measures to be applied through retrofit of the existing dwelling stock. It takes advantage of a newly available, rich dataset on the construction characteristics of the 2011 housing stock in Ireland. The methodological innovation centres on the use of wall construction type in the modelling and analysis. While Ireland is the focus, this approach is applicable to any EU member state for which data on dwelling characteristics exists from surveys carried as part of Energy Performance Certificate calculations. The model is calibrated to the national energy balance for 2011 by varying the internal temperature assumptions. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the effects of internal temperature and rebound. The paper also highlights some limitations posed by data availability on the accuracy and sophistication of models that can currently be developed, specifically in the Irish case. - Highlights: • Archetype model of energy savings potential from retrofit of existing dwelling stock. • Takes advantage of rich dataset on the construction characteristics of the Irish housing stock. • Innovative use of wall construction types in archetype definition possible due to improved data. • Results calibrated to top down estimate of heating demand by adjusting internal temperature. • Highlights limitations on the accuracy and sophistication of models posed by data availability.

  1. Correlation between human observer performance and model observer performance in differential phase contrast CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Ke; Garrett, John; Chen, Guang-Hong


    Purpose: With the recently expanding interest and developments in x-ray differential phase contrast CT (DPC-CT), the evaluation of its task-specific detection performance and comparison with the corresponding absorption CT under a given radiation dose constraint become increasingly important. Mathematical model observers are often used to quantify the performance of imaging systems, but their correlations with actual human observers need to be confirmed for each new imaging method. This work is an investigation of the effects of stochastic DPC-CT noise on the correlation of detection performance between model and human observers with signal-known-exactly (SKE) detection tasks.Methods: The detectabilities of different objects (five disks with different diameters and two breast lesion masses) embedded in an experimental DPC-CT noise background were assessed using both model and human observers. The detectability of the disk and lesion signals was then measured using five types of model observers including the prewhitening ideal observer, the nonprewhitening (NPW) observer, the nonprewhitening observer with eye filter and internal noise (NPWEi), the prewhitening observer with eye filter and internal noise (PWEi), and the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO). The same objects were also evaluated by four human observers using the two-alternative forced choice method. The results from the model observer experiment were quantitatively compared to the human observer results to assess the correlation between the two techniques.Results: The contrast-to-detail (CD) curve generated by the human observers for the disk-detection experiments shows that the required contrast to detect a disk is inversely proportional to the square root of the disk size. Based on the CD curves, the ideal and NPW observers tend to systematically overestimate the performance of the human observers. The NPWEi and PWEi observers did not predict human performance well either, as the slopes of their CD

  2. Prediction of power ramp defects - development of a physically based model and evaluation of existing criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Notley, M.J.F.; Kohn, E.


    Power-ramp induced fuel failure is not a problem in the present CANDU reactors. The current empirical correlations that define probability of failure do not agree one-with-another and do not allow extrapolation outside the database. A new methodology, based on physical processes, is presented and compared to data. The methodology calculates the pre-ramp sheath stress and the incremental stress during the ramp, and whether or not there is a defect is predicted based on a failure threshold stress. The proposed model confirms the deductions made by daSilva from an empirical 'fit' to data from the 1988 PNGS power ramp failure incident. It is recommended that daSilvas' correlation be used as reference for OPG (Ontario Power Generation) power reactor fuel, and that extrapolation be performed using the new model. (author)

  3. The introspective may achieve more: Enhancing existing Geoscientific models with native-language emulated structural reflection (United States)

    Ji, Xinye; Shen, Chaopeng


    Geoscientific models manage myriad and increasingly complex data structures as trans-disciplinary models are integrated. They often incur significant redundancy with cross-cutting tasks. Reflection, the ability of a program to inspect and modify its structure and behavior at runtime, is known as a powerful tool to improve code reusability, abstraction, and separation of concerns. Reflection is rarely adopted in high-performance Geoscientific models, especially with Fortran, where it was previously deemed implausible. Practical constraints of language and legacy often limit us to feather-weight, native-language solutions. We demonstrate the usefulness of a structural-reflection-emulating, dynamically-linked metaObjects, gd. We show real-world examples including data structure self-assembly, effortless input/output (IO) and upgrade to parallel I/O, recursive actions and batch operations. We share gd and a derived module that reproduces MATLAB-like structure in Fortran and C++. We suggest that both a gd representation and a Fortran-native representation are maintained to access the data, each for separate purposes. Embracing emulated reflection allows generically-written codes that are highly re-usable across projects.

  4. The Terrestrial Bow Shock: A Comparison of New Data from the IBEX Mission to Existing Models (United States)

    Hart, S. T.; Janzen, P. H.; Reisenfeld, D. B.


    For over 50 years, models predicting the position and shape of the bow shock have been empirically produced and examined. Accurate bow shock models provide deeper understanding of the interaction between Earth's magnetosphere and the solar wind. To date, most bow shock studies have incorporated bow shock crossings within 35 RE of the Earth, or in the distant tail region (about 200 RE downstream of the Earth). Since late December 2008, the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) has orbited earth nearly 400 times to date, collecting the position of over 600 bow shock and magnetopause crossings between 15 and 50 RE, making the IBEX data set unique for the study of the magnetosheath structure between 35 and 50 RE. With crossings determined from IBEX-Hi data, and the use of the OMNI-2 dataset to provide corresponding upstream solar wind conditions and IMF data, we will test how well the leading published bow shock models (e.g. Merka et al. 2005, Jerab et al. 2005) match the shape of these boundaries in this unexplored region.

  5. Numerical Acoustic Models Including Viscous and Thermal losses: Review of Existing and New Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Peter Risby; Cutanda Henriquez, Vicente; Aage, Niels


    This work presents an updated overview of numerical methods including acoustic viscous and thermal losses. Numerical modelling of viscothermal losses has gradually become more important due to the general trend of making acoustic devices smaller. Not including viscothermal acoustic losses...... in such numerical computations will therefore lead to inaccurate or even wrong results. Both, Finite Element Method (FEM) and Boundary Element Method (BEM), formulations are available that incorporate these loss mechanisms. Including viscothermal losses in FEM computations can be computationally very demanding, due...... and BEM method including viscothermal dissipation are compared and investigated....

  6. Rapid energy modeling for existing buildings: Testing the business and environmental potential through an experiment at Autodesk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deodhar, Aniruddha; Stewart, Emma; Young, Rahul; Khan, Haider


    Retrofits of existing buildings represent a huge, growing market and an opportunity to achieve some of the most sizable and cost-effective carbon reductions in any sector of the economy. More 'zero energy' and 'carbon neutral' buildings are being conceived daily by combining energy efficiency measures with renewable energy technologies. However, for all the progress, the building industry faces technical and cost challenges in identifying the highest potential retrofit candidates. This presentation investigates one potential solution, a technology driven workflow called rapid energy modeling, to accelerate and scale the process of analyzing performance for existing buildings in prioritizing improvements.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magnolia Tilca


    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the existence of the solution for the overlapping generations model, using fixed point theorems in metric spaces endowed with a graph. The overlapping generations model has been introduced and developed by Maurice Allais (1947, Paul Samuelson (1958, Peter Diamond (1965 and so on. The present paper treats the case presented by Edmond (2008 in (Edmond, 2008 for a continuous time. The theorem of existence of the solution for the prices fixed point problem derived from the overlapping generations model gives an approximation of the solution via the graph theory. The tools employed in this study are based on applications of the Jachymski fixed point theorem on metric spaces endowed with a graph (Jachymski, 2008

  8. Implementation of partnership management model of SMK (Vocational High School) with existing industries in mechanical engineering expertise in Central Java (United States)

    Sumbodo, Wirawan; Pardjono, Samsudi, Rahadjo, Winarno Dwi


    This study aims to determine the existing conditions of implementation of partnership management model of SMK with the industry on the mechanical engineering expertise in Central Java. The method used is descriptive analysis. The research result shows that the implementation of partnership management model of SMK based on new existing industry produces ready graduates of 62.5% which belongs to low category, although the partnership program of SMK with the industry is done well with the average score of 3.17. As many as 37.5% of SMK graduates of Mechanical Engineering Expertise Program choose to continue their studies or to be an entrepreneur. It is expected that the partnership model of SMK with the industry can be developed into a reference for government policy in developing SMK that is able to produce graduates who are ready to work according to the needs of partner industry.

  9. Validation in a Single-Center Cohort of Existing Predictive Models for Delayed Graft Function After Kidney Transplantation. (United States)

    Decruyenaere, Alexander; Decruyenaere, Philippe; Peeters, Patrick; Vermassen, Frank


    BACKGROUND Kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease. Delayed graft function (DGF) is a common complication and is associated with short- and long-term outcomes. Several predictive models for DGF have been developed. MATERIAL AND METHODS 497 kidney transplantations from deceased donors at our center between 2005-2011 are included. Firstly, the predictive accuracy of the existing models proposed by Irish et al. (M1), Jeldres et al. (M2), Chapal et al. (M3), and Zaza et al. (M4) was assessed. Secondly, the existing models were aggregated into a meta-model (MM) using stacked regressions. Finally, the association between 47 risk factors and DGF was studied in our -cohort-fitted model (CFM) using logistic regression. The accuracy of all models was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS M1, M2, M3, M4, MM, and CFM have AUROCs of 0.78, 0.65, 0.59, 0.67, 0.78, and 0.82, respectively. M1 (P=0.018), M2 (Ppredictive models for DGF overestimate the risk in a cohort with a low incidence of DGF. We have identified 2 recipient parameters that are not included in previous models: cardiac function and preoperative diastolic blood pressure.

  10. Observation-Based Modeling for Model-Based Testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanstrén, T.; Piel, E.; Gross, H.G.


    One of the single most important reasons that modeling and modelbased testing are not yet common practice in industry is the perceived difficulty of making the models up to the level of detail and quality required for their automated processing. Models unleash their full potential only through

  11. On the Existence of a Weak Solution of a Half-Cell Model for PEM Fuel Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuh-Jye Chern


    Full Text Available A nonlinear boundary value problem (BVP from the modelling of the transport phenomena in the cathode catalyst layer of a one-dimensional half-cell single-phase model for proton exchange membrane (PEM fuel cells, derived from the 3D model of Zhou and Liu (2000, 2001, is studied. It is a BVP for a system of three coupled ordinary differential equations of second order. Schauder's fixed point theorem is applied to show the existence of a solution in the Sobolev space 1.

  12. Testing the efficacy of existing force-endurance models to account for the prevalence of obesity in the workforce. (United States)

    Pajoutan, Mojdeh; Cavuoto, Lora A; Mehta, Ranjana K


    This study evaluates whether the existing force-endurance relationship models are predictive of endurance time for overweight and obese individuals, and if not, provide revised models that can be applied for ergonomics practice. Data was collected from 141 participants (49 normal weight, 50 overweight, 42 obese) who each performed isometric endurance tasks of hand grip, shoulder flexion, and trunk extension at four levels of relative workload. Subject-specific fatigue rates and a general model of the force-endurance relationship were determined and compared to two fatigue models from the literature. There was a lack of fit between previous models and the current data for the grip (ICC = 0.8), with a shift toward lower endurance times for the new data. Application of the revised models can facilitate improved workplace design and job evaluation to accommodate the capacities of the current workforce.

  13. Chemotaxis-fluid coupled model for swimming bacteria with nonlinear diffusion: Global existence and asymptotic behavior

    KAUST Repository

    Markowich, Peter


    We study the system ct + u · ∇c = ∇c -nf(c) nt + u · ∇n = ∇n m - ∇ · (n×(c) ∇c) ut + u·∇u + ∇P - η∇u + n∇φ/ = 0 ∇·u = 0. arising in the modelling of the motion of swimming bacteria under the effect of diffusion, oxygen-taxis and transport through an incompressible fluid. The novelty with respect to previous papers in the literature lies in the presence of nonlinear porous-medium-like diffusion in the equation for the density n of the bacteria, motivated by a finite size effect. We prove that, under the constraint m ε (3/2, 2] for the adiabatic exponent, such system features global in time solutions in two space dimensions for large data. Moreover, in the case m = 2 we prove that solutions converge to constant states in the large-time limit. The proofs rely on standard energy methods and on a basic entropy estimate which cannot be achieved in the case m = 1. The case m = 2 is very special as we can provide a Lyapounov functional. We generalize our results to the three-dimensional case and obtain a smaller range of exponents m ε (m*, 2] with m* > 3/2, due to the use of classical Sobolev inequalities.

  14. A construction of observables for AKSZ sigma models


    Mnev, Pavel


    A construction of gauge-invariant observables is suggested for a class of topological field theories, the AKSZ sigma-models. The observables are associated to extensions of the target Q-manifold of the sigma model to a Q-bundle over it with additional Hamiltonian structure in fibers.

  15. Is the island universe model consistent with observations?


    Piao, Yun-Song


    We study the island universe model, in which initially the universe is in a cosmological constant sea, then the local quantum fluctuations violating the null energy condition create the islands of matter, some of which might corresponds to our observable universe. We examine the possibility that the island universe model is regarded as an alternative scenario of the origin of observable universe.

  16. modeling, observation and control, a multi-model approach


    Elkhalil, Mansoura


    This thesis is devoted to the control of systems which dynamics can be suitably described by a multimodel approach from an investigation study of a model reference adaptative control performance enhancement. Four multimodel control approaches have been proposed. The first approach is based on an output reference model control design. A successful experimental validation involving a chemical reactor has been carried out. The second approach is based on a suitable partial state model reference ...

  17. Improving Education in Medical Statistics: Implementing a Blended Learning Model in the Existing Curriculum. (United States)

    Milic, Natasa M; Trajkovic, Goran Z; Bukumiric, Zoran M; Cirkovic, Andja; Nikolic, Ivan M; Milin, Jelena S; Milic, Nikola V; Savic, Marko D; Corac, Aleksandar M; Marinkovic, Jelena M; Stanisavljevic, Dejana M


    Although recent studies report on the benefits of blended learning in improving medical student education, there is still no empirical evidence on the relative effectiveness of blended over traditional learning approaches in medical statistics. We implemented blended along with on-site (i.e. face-to-face) learning to further assess the potential value of web-based learning in medical statistics. This was a prospective study conducted with third year medical undergraduate students attending the Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, who passed (440 of 545) the final exam of the obligatory introductory statistics course during 2013-14. Student statistics achievements were stratified based on the two methods of education delivery: blended learning and on-site learning. Blended learning included a combination of face-to-face and distance learning methodologies integrated into a single course. Mean exam scores for the blended learning student group were higher than for the on-site student group for both final statistics score (89.36±6.60 vs. 86.06±8.48; p = 0.001) and knowledge test score (7.88±1.30 vs. 7.51±1.36; p = 0.023) with a medium effect size. There were no differences in sex or study duration between the groups. Current grade point average (GPA) was higher in the blended group. In a multivariable regression model, current GPA and knowledge test scores were associated with the final statistics score after adjusting for study duration and learning modality (plearning environments for teaching medical statistics to undergraduate medical students. Blended and on-site training formats led to similar knowledge acquisition; however, students with higher GPA preferred the technology assisted learning format. Implementation of blended learning approaches can be considered an attractive, cost-effective, and efficient alternative to traditional classroom training in medical statistics.

  18. Improving Education in Medical Statistics: Implementing a Blended Learning Model in the Existing Curriculum (United States)

    Milic, Natasa M.; Trajkovic, Goran Z.; Bukumiric, Zoran M.; Cirkovic, Andja; Nikolic, Ivan M.; Milin, Jelena S.; Milic, Nikola V.; Savic, Marko D.; Corac, Aleksandar M.; Marinkovic, Jelena M.; Stanisavljevic, Dejana M.


    Background Although recent studies report on the benefits of blended learning in improving medical student education, there is still no empirical evidence on the relative effectiveness of blended over traditional learning approaches in medical statistics. We implemented blended along with on-site (i.e. face-to-face) learning to further assess the potential value of web-based learning in medical statistics. Methods This was a prospective study conducted with third year medical undergraduate students attending the Faculty of Medicine, University of Belgrade, who passed (440 of 545) the final exam of the obligatory introductory statistics course during 2013–14. Student statistics achievements were stratified based on the two methods of education delivery: blended learning and on-site learning. Blended learning included a combination of face-to-face and distance learning methodologies integrated into a single course. Results Mean exam scores for the blended learning student group were higher than for the on-site student group for both final statistics score (89.36±6.60 vs. 86.06±8.48; p = 0.001) and knowledge test score (7.88±1.30 vs. 7.51±1.36; p = 0.023) with a medium effect size. There were no differences in sex or study duration between the groups. Current grade point average (GPA) was higher in the blended group. In a multivariable regression model, current GPA and knowledge test scores were associated with the final statistics score after adjusting for study duration and learning modality (plearning environments for teaching medical statistics to undergraduate medical students. Blended and on-site training formats led to similar knowledge acquisition; however, students with higher GPA preferred the technology assisted learning format. Implementation of blended learning approaches can be considered an attractive, cost-effective, and efficient alternative to traditional classroom training in medical statistics. PMID:26859832

  19. Modelling the existing Irish energy-system to identify future energy costs and the maximum wind penetration feasible

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Connolly, D.; Lund, Henrik; Mathiesen, Brian Vad


    energy- system to future energy costs by considering future fuel prices, CO2 prices, and different interest rates. The final investigation identifies the maximum wind penetration feasible on the 2007 Irish energy- system from a technical and economic perspective, as wind is the most promising fluctuating...... renewable resource available in Ireland. It is concluded that the reference model simulates the Irish energy-system accurately, the annual fuel costs for Ireland’s energy could increase by approximately 58% from 2007 to 2020 if a business-as-usual scenario is followed, and the optimum wind penetration...... for the existing Irish energy-system is approximately 30% from both a technical and economic perspective based on 2020 energy prices. Future studies will use the model developed in this study to show that higher wind penetrations can be achieved if the existing energy-system is modified correctly. Finally...

  20. Evaluation of Modeled and Measured Energy Savings in Existing All Electric Public Housing in the Pacific Northwest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gordon, Andrew [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Lubliner, Michael [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Howard, Luke [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Kunkle, Rick [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States); Salzberg, Emily [Building America Partnership for Improved Residential Construction (BA-PIRC), Cocoa, FL (United States)


    This project analyzes the cost effectiveness of energy savings measures installed by a large public housing authority in Salishan, a community in Tacoma Washington. Research focuses on the modeled and measured energy usage of the first six phases of construction, and compares the energy usage of those phases to phase 7. Market-ready energy solutions were also evaluated to improve the efficiency of affordable housing for new and existing (built since 2001) affordable housing in the marine climate of Washington State.

  1. Fuzzy model-based observers for fault detection in CSTR. (United States)

    Ballesteros-Moncada, Hazael; Herrera-López, Enrique J; Anzurez-Marín, Juan


    Under the vast variety of fuzzy model-based observers reported in the literature, what would be the properone to be used for fault detection in a class of chemical reactor? In this study four fuzzy model-based observers for sensor fault detection of a Continuous Stirred Tank Reactor were designed and compared. The designs include (i) a Luenberger fuzzy observer, (ii) a Luenberger fuzzy observer with sliding modes, (iii) a Walcott-Zak fuzzy observer, and (iv) an Utkin fuzzy observer. A negative, an oscillating fault signal, and a bounded random noise signal with a maximum value of ±0.4 were used to evaluate and compare the performance of the fuzzy observers. The Utkin fuzzy observer showed the best performance under the tested conditions. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. WDAC Task Team on Observations for Model Evaluation: Facilitating the use of observations for CMIP (United States)

    Waliser, D. E.; Gleckler, P. J.; Ferraro, R.; Eyring, V.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Schulz, J.; Thepaut, J. N.; Taylor, K. E.; Chepfer, H.; Bony, S.; Lee, T. J.; Joseph, R.; Mathieu, P. P.; Saunders, R.


    Observations are essential for the development and evaluation of climate models. Satellite and in-situ measurements as well as reanalysis products provide crucial resources for these purposes. Over the last two decades, the climate modeling community has become adept at developing model intercomparison projects (MIPs) that provide the basis for more systematic comparisons of climate models under common experimental conditions. A prominent example among these is the coupled MIP (CMIP). Due to its growing importance in providing input to the IPCC, the framework for CMIP, now planning CMIP6, has expanded to include a very comprehensive and precise set of experimental protocols, with an advanced data archive and dissemination system. While the number, types and sophistication of observations over the same time period have kept pace, their systematic application to the evaluation of climate models has yet to be fully exploited due to a lack of coordinated protocols for identifying, archiving, documenting and applying observational resources. This presentation will discuss activities and plans of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Data Advisory Council's (WDAC) Task Team on Observations for Model Evaluation for facilitating the use of observations for model evaluation. The presentation will include an update on the status of the obs4MIPs and ana4MIPs projects, whose purpose is to provide a limited collection of well-established and documented observation and reanalysis datasets for comparison with Earth system models, targeting CMIP in particular. The presentation will also describe the role these activities and datasets play in the development of a set of community standard observation-based climate model performance metrics by the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)'s Performance Metrics Panel, as well as which CMIP6 experiments these activities are targeting, and where additional community input and contributions to these activities are needed.

  3. A Unimodal Model for Double Observer Distance Sampling Surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Earl F Becker

    Full Text Available Distance sampling is a widely used method to estimate animal population size. Most distance sampling models utilize a monotonically decreasing detection function such as a half-normal. Recent advances in distance sampling modeling allow for the incorporation of covariates into the distance model, and the elimination of the assumption of perfect detection at some fixed distance (usually the transect line with the use of double-observer models. The assumption of full observer independence in the double-observer model is problematic, but can be addressed by using the point independence assumption which assumes there is one distance, the apex of the detection function, where the 2 observers are assumed independent. Aerially collected distance sampling data can have a unimodal shape and have been successfully modeled with a gamma detection function. Covariates in gamma detection models cause the apex of detection to shift depending upon covariate levels, making this model incompatible with the point independence assumption when using double-observer data. This paper reports a unimodal detection model based on a two-piece normal distribution that allows covariates, has only one apex, and is consistent with the point independence assumption when double-observer data are utilized. An aerial line-transect survey of black bears in Alaska illustrate how this method can be applied.

  4. Do multiquark hadrons exist

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weinstein, J.; Isgur, N.


    The qqq-barq-bar system has been examined by solving the four-particle Schroedinger equation variationally. The main findings are that: (1) qqq-barq-bar bound states normally do not exist, (2) the cryptoexotic 0/sup + +/ sector of this system with KK-bar quantum numbers is probably the only exception to (1) and its bound states can be identified with the S* and delta just below KK-bar threshold, (3) qqq-barq-bar bound states provide a model for the weak binding and color-singlet clustering observed in nuclei, and (4) there is no indication that this system has strong resonances.

  5. Assimilating uncertain, dynamic and intermittent streamflow observations in hydrological models (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Chacon-Hurtado, Juan; Solomatine, Dimitri


    Catastrophic floods cause significant socio-economical losses. Non-structural measures, such as real-time flood forecasting, can potentially reduce flood risk. To this end, data assimilation methods have been used to improve flood forecasts by integrating static ground observations, and in some cases also remote sensing observations, within water models. Current hydrologic and hydraulic research works consider assimilation of observations coming from traditional, static sensors. At the same time, low-cost, mobile sensors and mobile communication devices are becoming also increasingly available. The main goal and innovation of this study is to demonstrate the usefulness of assimilating uncertain streamflow observations that are dynamic in space and intermittent in time in the context of two different semi-distributed hydrological model structures. The developed method is applied to the Brue basin, where the dynamic observations are imitated by the synthetic observations of discharge. The results of this study show how model structures and sensors locations affect in different ways the assimilation of streamflow observations. In addition, it proves how assimilation of such uncertain observations from dynamic sensors can provide model improvements similar to those of streamflow observations coming from a non-optimal network of static physical sensors. This can be a potential application of recent efforts to build citizen observatories of water, which can make the citizens an active part in information capturing, evaluation and communication, helping simultaneously to improvement of model-based flood forecasting.

  6. Existence and regularity of solutions of a phase field model for solidification with convection of pure materials in two dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Luiz Boldrini


    Full Text Available We study the existence and regularity of weak solutions of a phase field type model for pure material solidification in presence of natural convection. We assume that the non-stationary solidification process occurs in a two dimensional bounded domain. The governing equations of the model are the phase field equation coupled with a nonlinear heat equation and a modified Navier-Stokes equation. These equations include buoyancy forces modelled by Boussinesq approximation and a Carman-Koseny term to model the flow in mushy regions. Since these modified Navier-Stokes equations only hold in the non-solid regions, which are not known a priori, we have a free boundary-value problem.

  7. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry


    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  8. Evaluation of internal noise methods for Hotelling observer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yani; Pham, Binh T.; Eckstein, Miguel P.


    The inclusion of internal noise in model observers is a common method to allow for quantitative comparisons between human and model observer performance in visual detection tasks. In this article, we studied two different strategies for inserting internal noise into Hotelling model observers. In the first strategy, internal noise was added to the output of individual channels: (a) Independent nonuniform channel noise, (b) independent uniform channel noise. In the second strategy, internal noise was added to the decision variable arising from the combination of channel responses. The standard deviation of the zero mean internal noise was either constant or proportional to: (a) the decision variable's standard deviation due to the external noise, (b) the decision variable's variance caused by the external noise, (c) the decision variable magnitude on a trial to trial basis. We tested three model observers: square window Hotelling observer (HO), channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), and Laguerre-Gauss Hotelling observer (LGHO) using a four alternative forced choice (4AFC) signal known exactly but variable task with a simulated signal embedded in real x-ray coronary angiogram backgrounds. The results showed that the internal noise method that led to the best prediction of human performance differed across the studied model observers. The CHO model best predicted human observer performance with the channel internal noise. The HO and LGHO best predicted human observer performance with the decision variable internal noise. The present results might guide researchers with the choice of methods to include internal noise into Hotelling model observers when evaluating and optimizing medical image quality

  9. The quest for stable circumbinary companions to post-common envelope sdB eclipsing binaries. Does the observational evidence support their existence? (United States)

    Pulley, D.; Faillace, G.; Smith, D.; Watkins, A.; von Harrach, S.


    Context. Period variations have been detected in a number of eclipsing close compact binary subdwarf B stars (sdBs) and these have often been interpreted as being caused by circumbinary massive planets or brown dwarfs. According to canonical binary models, the majority of sdB systems are produced from low mass stars with degenerate cores where helium is ignited in flashes. Various evolutionary scenarios have been proposed for these stars, but a definite mechanism remains to be established. Equally puzzling is the formation of these putative circumbinary objects which must have formed from the remaining post-common envelope circumbinary disk or survived its evolution. Aim. In this paper we review the eclipse time variations (ETVs) exhibited by seven such systems (EC 10246-2707, HS 0705+6700, HS 2231+2441, J08205+0008, NSVS 07826147, NSVS 14256825, and NY Vir) and explore whether there is conclusive evidence that the ETVs observed over the last two decades can reliably predict the presence of one or more circumbinary bodies. Methods: We report 246 new observations of the seven sdB systems made between 2013 September and 2017 July using a worldwide network of telescopes. We combined our new data with previously published measurements to analyse the ETVs of these systems. Results: Our data show that period variations cannot be modelled simply on the basis of circumbinary objects. This implies that more complex processes may be taking place in these systems. These difficulties are compounded by the secondary star not being spectroscopically visible. From ETVs, it has historically been suggested that five of the seven binary systems reported here had circumbinary objects. Based on our recent observations and analysis, only three systems remain serious contenders. We find agreement with other observers that at least a decade of observations is required to establish reliable ephemerides. With longer observational baselines it is quite conceivable that the data will support

  10. Detecting influential observations in nonlinear regression modeling of groundwater flow (United States)

    Yager, Richard M.


    Nonlinear regression is used to estimate optimal parameter values in models of groundwater flow to ensure that differences between predicted and observed heads and flows do not result from nonoptimal parameter values. Parameter estimates can be affected, however, by observations that disproportionately influence the regression, such as outliers that exert undue leverage on the objective function. Certain statistics developed for linear regression can be used to detect influential observations in nonlinear regression if the models are approximately linear. This paper discusses the application of Cook's D, which measures the effect of omitting a single observation on a set of estimated parameter values, and the statistical parameter DFBETAS, which quantifies the influence of an observation on each parameter. The influence statistics were used to (1) identify the influential observations in the calibration of a three-dimensional, groundwater flow model of a fractured-rock aquifer through nonlinear regression, and (2) quantify the effect of omitting influential observations on the set of estimated parameter values. Comparison of the spatial distribution of Cook's D with plots of model sensitivity shows that influential observations correspond to areas where the model heads are most sensitive to certain parameters, and where predicted groundwater flow rates are largest. Five of the six discharge observations were identified as influential, indicating that reliable measurements of groundwater flow rates are valuable data in model calibration. DFBETAS are computed and examined for an alternative model of the aquifer system to identify a parameterization error in the model design that resulted in overestimation of the effect of anisotropy on horizontal hydraulic conductivity.

  11. Influence of weathering and pre-existing large scale fractures on gravitational slope failure: insights from 3-D physical modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Bachmann


    Full Text Available Using a new 3-D physical modelling technique we investigated the initiation and evolution of large scale landslides in presence of pre-existing large scale fractures and taking into account the slope material weakening due to the alteration/weathering. The modelling technique is based on the specially developed properly scaled analogue materials, as well as on the original vertical accelerator device enabling increases in the 'gravity acceleration' up to a factor 50. The weathering primarily affects the uppermost layers through the water circulation. We simulated the effect of this process by making models of two parts. The shallower one represents the zone subject to homogeneous weathering and is made of low strength material of compressive strength σl. The deeper (core part of the model is stronger and simulates intact rocks. Deformation of such a model subjected to the gravity force occurred only in its upper (low strength layer. In another set of experiments, low strength (σw narrow planar zones sub-parallel to the slope surface (σwl were introduced into the model's superficial low strength layer to simulate localized highly weathered zones. In this configuration landslides were initiated much easier (at lower 'gravity force', were shallower and had smaller horizontal size largely defined by the weak zone size. Pre-existing fractures were introduced into the model by cutting it along a given plan. They have proved to be of small influence on the slope stability, except when they were associated to highly weathered zones. In this latter case the fractures laterally limited the slides. Deep seated rockslides initiation is thus directly defined by the mechanical structure of the hillslope's uppermost levels and especially by the presence of the weak zones due to the weathering. The large scale fractures play a more passive role and can only influence the shape and the volume of the sliding units.

  12. Supporting the Constructive Use of Existing Hydrological Models in Participatory Settings: a Set of "Rules of the Game"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter W. G. Bots


    Full Text Available When hydrological models are used in support of water management decisions, stakeholders often contest these models because they perceive certain aspects to be inadequately addressed. A strongly contested model may be abandoned completely, even when stakeholders could potentially agree on the validity of part of the information it can produce. The development of a new model is costly, and the results may be contested again. We consider how existing hydrological models can be used in a policy process so as to benefit from both hydrological knowledge and the perspectives and local knowledge of stakeholders. We define a code of conduct as a set of "rules of the game" that we base on a case study of developing a water management plan for a Natura 2000 site in the Netherlands. We propose general rules for agenda management and information sharing, and more specific rules for model use and option development. These rules structure the interactions among actors, help them to explicitly acknowledge uncertainties, and prevent expertise from being neglected or overlooked. We designed the rules to favor openness, protection of core stakeholder values, the use of relevant substantive knowledge, and the momentum of the process. We expect that these rules, although developed on the basis of a water-management issue, can also be applied to support the use of existing computer models in other policy domains. As rules will shape actions only when they are constantly affirmed by actors, we expect that the rules will become less useful in an "unruly" social environment where stakeholders constantly challenge the proceedings.

  13. An Observation Capability Metadata Model for EO Sensor Discovery in Sensor Web Enablement Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuli Hu


    Full Text Available Accurate and fine-grained discovery by diverse Earth observation (EO sensors ensures a comprehensive response to collaborative observation-required emergency tasks. This discovery remains a challenge in an EO sensor web environment. In this study, we propose an EO sensor observation capability metadata model that reuses and extends the existing sensor observation-related metadata standards to enable the accurate and fine-grained discovery of EO sensors. The proposed model is composed of five sub-modules, namely, ObservationBreadth, ObservationDepth, ObservationFrequency, ObservationQuality and ObservationData. The model is applied to different types of EO sensors and is formalized by the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Model Language 1.0. The GeosensorQuery prototype retrieves the qualified EO sensors based on the provided geo-event. An actual application to flood emergency observation in the Yangtze River Basin in China is conducted, and the results indicate that sensor inquiry can accurately achieve fine-grained discovery of qualified EO sensors and obtain enriched observation capability information. In summary, the proposed model enables an efficient encoding system that ensures minimum unification to represent the observation capabilities of EO sensors. The model functions as a foundation for the efficient discovery of EO sensors. In addition, the definition and development of this proposed EO sensor observation capability metadata model is a helpful step in extending the Sensor Model Language (SensorML 2.0 Profile for the description of the observation capabilities of EO sensors.

  14. COCOA code for creating mock observations of star cluster models (United States)

    Askar, Abbas; Giersz, Mirek; Pych, Wojciech; Dalessandro, Emanuele


    We introduce and present results from the COCOA (Cluster simulatiOn Comparison with ObservAtions) code that has been developed to create idealized mock photometric observations using results from numerical simulations of star cluster evolution. COCOA is able to present the output of realistic numerical simulations of star clusters carried out using Monte Carlo or N-body codes in a way that is useful for direct comparison with photometric observations. In this paper, we describe the COCOA code and demonstrate its different applications by utilizing globular cluster (GC) models simulated with the MOCCA (MOnte Carlo Cluster simulAtor) code. COCOA is used to synthetically observe these different GC models with optical telescopes, perform point spread function photometry, and subsequently produce observed colour-magnitude diagrams. We also use COCOA to compare the results from synthetic observations of a cluster model that has the same age and metallicity as the Galactic GC NGC 2808 with observations of the same cluster carried out with a 2.2 m optical telescope. We find that COCOA can effectively simulate realistic observations and recover photometric data. COCOA has numerous scientific applications that maybe be helpful for both theoreticians and observers that work on star clusters. Plans for further improving and developing the code are also discussed in this paper.

  15. Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Observed and modeled data shown in figure 2b-c. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Mao, J., A. Carlton, R. Cohen, W. Brune, S. Brown, G....

  16. Bifurcation Analysis of an Existing Mathematical Model Reveals Novel Treatment Strategies and Suggests Potential Cure for Type 1 Diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Kenneth Hagde Mandrup; Ottesen, Johnny T.; Pociot, Flemming


    Type 1 diabetes is a disease with serious personal and socioeconomic consequences that has attracted the attention of modellers recently. But as models of this disease tend to be complicated, there has been only limited mathematical analysis to date. Here we address this problem by providing...... a bifurcation analysis of a previously published mathematical model for the early stages of type 1 diabetes in diabetes-prone NOD mice, which is based on the data available in the literature. We also show positivity and the existence of a family of attracting trapping regions in the positive 5D cone, converging...... towards a smaller trapping region, which is the intersection over the family. All these trapping regions are compact sets, and thus, practical weak persistence is guaranteed. We conclude our analysis by proposing 4 novel treatment strategies: increasing the phagocytic ability of resting macrophages...

  17. Meridional Flow Observations: Implications for the current Flux Transport Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Hernandez, Irene; Komm, Rudolf; Kholikov, Shukur; Howe, Rachel; Hill, Frank


    Meridional circulation has become a key element in the solar dynamo flux transport models. Available helioseismic observations from several instruments, Taiwan Oscillation Network (TON), Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) and Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI), have made possible a continuous monitoring of the solar meridional flow in the subphotospheric layers for the last solar cycle, including the recent extended minimum. Here we review some of the meridional circulation observations using local helioseismology techniques and relate them to magnetic flux transport models.

  18. Runoff modeling of the Mara River using satellite observed soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model is developed based on the relationships found between satellite observed soil moisture and rainfall and the measured runoff. It uses the satellite observed rainfall as the prime forcing, and the soil moisture to separate the fast surface runoff and slow base flow contributions. The soil moisture and rainfall products ...

  19. Observational Data-Driven Modeling and Optimization of Manufacturing Processes


    Sadati, Najibesadat; Chinnam, Ratna Babu; Nezhad, Milad Zafar


    The dramatic increase of observational data across industries provides unparalleled opportunities for data-driven decision making and management, including the manufacturing industry. In the context of production, data-driven approaches can exploit observational data to model, control and improve the process performance. When supplied by observational data with adequate coverage to inform the true process performance dynamics, they can overcome the cost associated with intrusive controlled de...

  20. Time-symmetric universe model and its observational implication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Futamase, T.; Matsuda, T.


    A time-symmetric closed-universe model is discussed in terms of the radiation arrow of time. The time symmetry requires the occurrence of advanced waves in the recontracting phase of the Universe. We consider the observational consequences of such advanced waves, and it is shown that a test observer in the expanding phase can observe a time-reversed image of a source of radiation in the future recontracting phase.

  1. A time-symmetric Universe model and its observational implication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Futamase, T.; Matsuda, T.


    A time-symmetric closed-universe model is discussed in terms of the radiation arrow of time. The time symmetry requires the occurrence of advanced waves in the recontracting phase of the Universe. The observational consequences of such advanced waves are considered, and it is shown that a test observer in the expanding phase can observe a time-reversed image of a source of radiation in the future recontracting phase

  2. Cosmological observables in the quasi-spherical Szekeres model (United States)

    Buckley, Robert G.


    The standard model of cosmology presents a homogeneous universe, and we interpret cosmological data through this framework. However, structure growth creates nonlinear inhomogeneities that may affect observations, and even larger structures may be hidden by our limited vantage point and small number of independent observations. As we determine the universe's parameters with increasing precision, the accuracy is contingent on our understanding of the effects of such structures. For instance, giant void models can explain some observations without dark energy. Because perturbation theory cannot adequately describe nonlinear inhomogeneities, exact solutions to the equations of general relativity are important for these questions. The most general known solution capable of describing inhomogeneous matter distributions is the Szekeres class of models. In this work, we study the quasi-spherical subclass of these models, using numerical simulations to calculate the inhomogeneities' effects on observations. We calculate the large-angle CMB in giant void models and compare with simpler, symmetric void models that have previously been found inadequate to matchobservations. We extend this by considering models with early-time inhomogeneities as well. Then, we study distance observations, including selection effects, in models which are homogeneous on scales around 100 Mpc---consistent with standard cosmology---but inhomogeneous on smaller scales. Finally, we consider photon polarizations, and show that they are not directly affected by inhomogeneities. Overall, we find that while Szekeres models have some advantages over simpler models, they are still seriously limited in their ability to alter our parameter estimation while remaining within the bounds of current observations.

  3. Fish-eye Camera Calibration Model Based on Vector Observations and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHAN Yinhu


    Full Text Available A fish-eye camera calibration model is presented, basic observations of which consist of both half angle of view and azimuth. Rodrigues matrix is introduced into the model, and three Rodrigues parameters instead of Euler angles are used to represent elements of exterior orientation in order to simplify the expressions and calculations of observation equations.The new model is compared with the existing models based on half angle of view constraint by actual star-map data processing, and the results indicate that the model is superior to control the azimuth error, while slightly inferior to constrain the error of half angle of view. It is advised that radial distortion parameters should be determined by the model based on half angle of view constraint at first, and other camera parameters should be calculated by the new model.

  4. Asymptotic behavior of observables in the asymmetric quantum Rabi model (United States)

    Semple, J.; Kollar, M.


    The asymmetric quantum Rabi model with broken parity invariance shows spectral degeneracies in the integer case, that is when the asymmetry parameter equals an integer multiple of half the oscillator frequency, thus hinting at a hidden symmetry and accompanying integrability of the model. We study the expectation values of spin observables for each eigenstate and observe characteristic differences between the integer and noninteger cases for the asymptotics in the deep strong coupling regime, which can be understood from a perturbative expansion in the qubit splitting. We also construct a parent Hamiltonian whose exact eigenstates possess the same symmetries as the perturbative eigenstates of the asymmetric quantum Rabi model in the integer case.

  5. Tests of Financial Models in the Presence of Overlapping Observations.


    Richardson, Matthew; Smith, Tom


    A general approach to testing serial dependence restrictions implied from financial models is developed. In particular, we discuss joint serial dependence restrictions imposed by random walk, market microstructure, and rational expectations models recently examined in the literature. This approach incorporates more information from the data by explicitly modeling dependencies induced by the use of overlapping observations. Because the estimation problem is sufficiently simple in this framewor...

  6. Comparison and Extension of Existing 3D Propagation Models with Real-World Effects Based on Ray-tracing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kifle, Dereje W.; Gimenez, Lucas Chavarria; Wegmann, Bernhard


    The next generation of cellular network deployment is heterogeneous and temporally changing in order to follow the coverage and capacity needs. Active Antenna Systems allows fast deployment changes by cell shaping and tilt adaptation which has to be controlled in self-organized manner. However......, such kind of automated and flexible network operation require a Self Organizing Network algorithm based on network performance parameters being partly derived from the radio measurements. Appropriate radio propagation models are not only needed for network planning tools but also for simulative lab tests...... of the developed Self Organizing Network algorithm controlling the flexible deployment changes enabled by Active Antenna Systems. In this paper, an extension of the existing 3D propagation model is proposed in order to incorporate the the propagation condition variation effects, not considered so far, by changing...

  7. Existence and Uniqueness of Positive Periodic Solutions for a Delayed Predator-Prey Model with Dispersion and Impulses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenguo Luo


    Full Text Available An impulsive Lotka-Volterra type predator-prey model with prey dispersal in two-patch environments and time delays is investigated, where we assume the model of patches with a barrier only as far as the prey population is concerned, whereas the predator population has no barriers between patches. By applying the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory and by means of a suitable Lyapunov functional, a set of easily verifiable sufficient conditions are obtained to guarantee the existence, uniqueness, and global stability of positive periodic solutions of the system. Some known results subject to the underlying systems without impulses are improved and generalized. As an application, we also give two examples to illustrate the feasibility of our main results.

  8. Can we better use existing and emerging computing hardware to embed activity coefficient predictions in complex atmospheric aerosol models? (United States)

    Topping, David; Alibay, Irfan; Ruske, Simon; Hindriksen, Vincent; Noisternig, Michael


    To predict the evolving concentration, chemical composition and ability of aerosol particles to act as cloud droplets, we rely on numerical modeling. Mechanistic models attempt to account for the movement of compounds between the gaseous and condensed phases at a molecular level. This 'bottom up' approach is designed to increase our fundamental understanding. However, such models rely on predicting the properties of molecules and subsequent mixtures. For partitioning between the gaseous and condensed phases this includes: saturation vapour pressures; Henrys law coefficients; activity coefficients; diffusion coefficients and reaction rates. Current gas phase chemical mechanisms predict the existence of potentially millions of individual species. Within a dynamic ensemble model, this can often be used as justification for neglecting computationally expensive process descriptions. Indeed, on whether we can quantify the true sensitivity to uncertainties in molecular properties, even at the single aerosol particle level it has been impossible to embed fully coupled representations of process level knowledge with all possible compounds, typically relying on heavily parameterised descriptions. Relying on emerging numerical frameworks, and designed for the changing landscape of high-performance computing (HPC), in this study we show that comprehensive microphysical models from single particle to larger scales can be developed to encompass a complete state-of-the-art knowledge of aerosol chemical and process diversity. We focus specifically on the ability to capture activity coefficients in liquid solutions using the UNIFAC method, profiling traditional coding strategies and those that exploit emerging hardware.

  9. Global existence and asymptotic behavior of a model for biological control of invasive species via supermale introduction

    KAUST Repository

    Parshad, Rana


    The purpose of this manuscript is to propose a model for the biological control of invasive species, via introduction of phenotypically modified organisms into a target population. We are inspired by the earlier Trojan Y Chromosome model [J.B. Gutierrez, J.L. Teem, J. Theo. Bio., 241(22), 333-341, 2006]. However, in the current work, we remove the assumption of logisticgrowth rate, and do not consider the addition of sex-reversed supermales. Also the constant birth and death coefficients, considered earlier, are replaced by functionally dependent ones. In this case the nonlinearities present serious difficulties since they change sign, and the components of the solution are not a priori bounded, in some Lp-space for p large, to permit theapplication of the well known regularizing effect principle. Thus functional methods to deducethe global existence in time, for the system in question, are not applicable. Our techniques are based on the Lyapunov functional method. We prove global existence of solutions, as well asexistence of a finite dimensional global attractor, that supports states of extinction. Our analytical finding are in accordance with numerical simulations, which we also present. © 2013 International Press.

  10. Observations that polar climate modelers use and want (United States)

    Kay, J. E.; de Boer, G.; Hunke, E. C.; Bailey, D. A.; Schneider, D. P.


    Observations are essential for motivating and establishing improvement in the representation of polar processes within climate models. We believe that explicitly documenting the current methods used to develop and evaluate climate models with observations will help inform and improve collaborations between the observational and climate modeling communities. As such, we will present the current strategy of the Polar Climate Working Group (PCWG) to evaluate polar processes within Community Earth System Model (CESM) using observations. Our presentation will focus primarily on PCWG evaluation of atmospheric, sea ice, and surface oceanic processes. In the future, we hope to expand to include land surface, deep ocean, and biogeochemical observations. We hope our presentation, and a related working document developed by the PCWG ( inspires new and useful interactions that lead to improved climate model representation of polar processes relevant to polar climate.

  11. Confronting Lemaitre–Tolman–Bondi models with observational cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Bellido, Juan; Haugbølle, Troels


    The possibility that we live in a special place in the universe, close to the centre of a large void, seems an appealing alternative to the prevailing interpretation of the acceleration of the universe in terms of a ΛCDM model with a dominant dark energy component. In this paper we confront the asymptotically flat Lemaitre–Tolman–Bondi (LTB) models with a series of observations, from type Ia supernovae to cosmic microwave background and baryon acoustic oscillations data. We propose two concrete LTB models describing a local void in which the only arbitrary functions are the radial dependence of the matter density Ω M and the Hubble expansion rate H. We find that all observations can be accommodated within 1 sigma, for our models with four or five independent parameters. The best fit models have a χ 2 very close to that of the ΛCDM model. A general Fortran program for comparing LTB models with cosmological observations, that has been used to make the parameter scan in this paper, has been made public, and can be downloaded at together with IDL routines for creating the likelihood plots. We perform a simple Bayesian analysis and show that one cannot exclude the hypothesis that we live within a large local void of an otherwise Einstein–de Sitter model

  12. Operational Efficiency Forecasting Model of an Existing Underground Mine Using Grey System Theory and Stochastic Diffusion Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana Strbac Savic


    Full Text Available Forecasting the operational efficiency of an existing underground mine plays an important role in strategic planning of production. Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL is used to express the operational efficiency of production. The forecasting model should be able to involve common time horizon, taking the characteristics of the input variables that directly affect the value of DOL. Changes in the magnitude of any input variable change the value of DOL. To establish the relationship describing the way of changing we applied multivariable grey modeling. Established time sequence multivariable response formula is also used to forecast the future values of operating leverage. Operational efficiency of production is often associated with diverse sources of uncertainties. Incorporation of these uncertainties into multivariable forecasting model enables mining company to survive in today’s competitive environment. Simulation of mean reversion process and geometric Brownian motion is used to describe the stochastic diffusion nature of metal price, as a key element of revenues, and production costs, respectively. By simulating a forecasting model, we imitate its action in order to measure its response to different inputs. The final result of simulation process is the expected value of DOL for every year of defined time horizon.

  13. Decision support model for establishing the optimal energy retrofit strategy for existing multi-family housing complexes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Kim, Hyunjoong; Seon Park, Hyo


    The number of multi-family housing complexes (MFHCs) over 15 yr old in South Korea is expected to exceed 5 million by 2015. Accordingly, the demand for energy retrofit in the deteriorating MFHCs is rapidly increasing. This study aimed to develop a decision support model for establishing the optimal energy retrofit strategy for existing MFHCs. It can provide clear criteria for establishing the carbon emissions reduction target (CERT) and allow efficient budget allocation for conducting the energy retrofit. The CERT for “S” MFHC, one of MFHCs located in Seoul, as a case study, was set at 23.0% (electricity) and 27.9% (gas energy). In the economic and environmental assessment, it was determined that scenario #12 was the optimal scenario (ranked second with regard to NPV 40 (net present value at year 40) and third with regard to SIR 40 (saving to investment ratio at year 40). The proposed model could be useful for owners, construction managers, or policymakers in charge of establishing energy retrofit strategy for existing MFHCs. It could allow contractors in a competitive bidding process to rationally establish the CERT and select the optimal energy retrofit strategy. It can be also applied to any other country or sector in a global environment. - Highlights: • The proposed model was developed to establish the optimal energy retrofit strategy. • Advanced case-based reasoning was applied to establish the community-based CERT. • Energy simulation was conducted to analyze the effects of energy retrofit strategy. • The optimal strategy can be finally selected based on the LCC and LCCO 2 analysis. • It could be extended to any other country or sector in the global environment

  14. Experimental model considerations for the study of protein-energy malnutrition co-existing with ischemic brain injury. (United States)

    Prosser-Loose, Erin J; Smith, Shari E; Paterson, Phyllis G


    Protein-energy malnutrition (PEM) affects ~16% of patients at admission for stroke. We previously modeled this in a gerbil global cerebral ischemia model and found that PEM impairs functional outcome and influences mechanisms of ischemic brain injury and recovery. Since this model is no longer reliable, we investigated the utility of the rat 2-vessel occlusion (2-VO) with hypotension model of global ischemia for further study of this clinical problem. Male, Sprague-Dawley rats were exposed to either control diet (18% protein) or PEM induced by feeding a low protein diet (2% protein) for 7d prior to either global ischemia or sham surgery. PEM did not significantly alter the hippocampal CA1 neuron death (p = 0.195 by 2-factor ANOVA) or the increase in dendritic injury caused by exposure to global ischemia. Unexpectedly, however, a strong trend was evident for PEM to decrease the consistency of hippocampal damage, as shown by an increased incidence of unilateral or no hippocampal damage (p=0.069 by chi-square analysis). Although PEM caused significant changes to baseline arterial blood pH, pO(2), pCO(2), and fasting glucose (p0.269). Intra-ischemic tympanic temperature and blood pressure were strictly and equally controlled between ischemic groups. We conclude that co-existing PEM confounded the consistency of hippocampal injury in the 2-VO model. Although the mechanisms responsible were not identified, this model of brain ischemia should not be used for studying this co-morbidity factor. © 2011 Bentham Science Publishers Ltd.

  15. Observational constraints on models for giant planet formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gautier, D.; Owen, T.; Arizona Univ., Tucson)


    Current information about element abundances and isotope ratios in the atmospheres of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune is reviewed. The observed enhancement of C/H compared with the solar value favors models for the origin of these bodies that invoke the accretion and degassing of an ice-rock core followed by the accumulation of a solar composition envelope. Titan may represent an example of a core-forming planetesimal. Observations of D/H and other isotope ratios must be accommodated by these models in ways that are not yet completely clear. Some additional tests are suggested

  16. Curcumin labels amyloid pathology in vivo, disrupts existing plaques, and partially restores distorted neurites in an Alzheimer mouse model. (United States)

    Garcia-Alloza, M; Borrelli, L A; Rozkalne, A; Hyman, B T; Bacskai, B J


    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is characterized by senile plaques and neurodegeneration although the neurotoxic mechanisms have not been completely elucidated. It is clear that both oxidative stress and inflammation play an important role in the illness. The compound curcumin, with a broad spectrum of anti-oxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-fibrilogenic activities may represent a promising approach for preventing or treating AD. Curcumin is a small fluorescent compound that binds to amyloid deposits. In the present work we used in vivo multiphoton microscopy (MPM) to demonstrate that curcumin crosses the blood-brain barrier and labels senile plaques and cerebrovascular amyloid angiopathy (CAA) in APPswe/PS1dE9 mice. Moreover, systemic treatment of mice with curcumin for 7 days clears and reduces existing plaques, as monitored with longitudinal imaging, suggesting a potent disaggregation effect. Curcumin also led to a limited, but significant reversal of structural changes in dystrophic dendrites, including abnormal curvature and dystrophy size. Together, these data suggest that curcumin reverses existing amyloid pathology and associated neurotoxicity in a mouse model of AD. This approach could lead to more effective clinical therapies for the prevention of oxidative stress, inflammation and neurotoxicity associated with AD.

  17. Modelling the potential to achieve deep carbon emission cuts in existing UK social housing: The case of Peabody

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, Andrew; Taylor, Simon; Fleming, Paul


    As part of the UK's effort to combat climate change, deep cuts in carbon emissions will be required from existing housing over the coming decades. The viability of achieving such emission cuts for the UK social housing sector has been explored through a case study of Peabody, a housing association operating in London. Various approaches to stock refurbishment were modelled for Peabody's existing stock up to the year 2030, incorporating insulation, communal heating and micro-generation technologies. Outputs were evaluated under four future socio-economic scenarios. The results indicate that the Greater London Authority's target of a 60% carbon emission cut by 2025 can be achieved if extensive stock refurbishment is coupled with a background of wider societal efforts to reduce carbon emissions. The two key external requirements identified are a significant reduction in the carbon intensity of grid electricity and a stabilisation or reduction in householder demand for energy. A target of achieving zero net carbon emissions across Peabody stock by 2030 can only be achieved if grid electricity becomes available from entirely zero-carbon sources. These results imply that stronger action is needed from both social landlords and Government to enable deep emission cuts to be achieved in UK social housing.

  18. Evaluating Climate Models: Should We Use Weather or Climate Observations? (United States)

    Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.; Maasch, K. A.; Erickson, D. J.; Hays, C.


    Calling the numerical models that we use for simulations of climate change 'climate models' is a bit of a misnomer. These 'general circulation models' (GCMs, AKA global climate models) and their cousins the 'regional climate models' (RCMs) are actually physically-based weather simulators. That is, these models simulate, either globally or locally, daily weather patterns in response to some change in forcing or boundary condition. These simulated weather patterns are then aggregated into climate statistics, very much as we aggregate observations into 'real climate statistics'. Traditionally, the output of GCMs has been evaluated using climate statistics, as opposed to their ability to simulate realistic daily weather observations. At the coarse global scale this may be a reasonable approach, however, as RCM's downscale to increasingly higher resolutions, the conjunction between weather and climate becomes more problematic. We present results from a series of present-day climate simulations using the WRF ARW for domains that cover North America, much of Latin America, and South Asia. The basic domains are at a 12 km resolution, but several inner domains at 4 km have also been simulated. These include regions of complex topography in Mexico, Colombia, Peru, and Sri Lanka, as well as a region of low topography and fairly homogeneous land surface type (the U.S. Great Plains). Model evaluations are performed using standard climate analyses (e.g., reanalyses; NCDC data) but also using time series of daily station observations. Preliminary results suggest little difference in the assessment of long-term mean quantities, but the variability on seasonal and interannual timescales is better described. Furthermore, the value-added by using daily weather observations as an evaluation tool increases with the model resolution.

  19. Evaluation of the Use of Existing RELAP5-3D Models to Represent the Actinide Burner Test Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    C. B. Davis


    The RELAP5-3D code is being considered as a thermal-hydraulic system code to support the development of the sodium-cooled Actinide Burner Test Reactor as part of Global Nuclear Energy Partnership. An evaluation was performed to determine whether the control system could be used to simulate the effects of non-convective mechanisms of heat transport in the fluid that are not currently represented with internal code models, including axial and radial heat conduction in the fluid and subchannel mixing. The evaluation also determined the relative importance of axial and radial heat conduction and fluid mixing on peak cladding temperature for a wide range of steady conditions and during a representative loss-of-flow transient. The evaluation was performed using a RELAP5-3D model of a subassembly in the Experimental Breeder Reactor-II, which was used as a surrogate for the Actinide Burner Test Reactor. An evaluation was also performed to determine if the existing centrifugal pump model could be used to simulate the performance of electromagnetic pumps

  20. On prognostic models, artificial intelligence and censored observations. (United States)

    Anand, S S; Hamilton, P W; Hughes, J G; Bell, D A


    The development of prognostic models for assisting medical practitioners with decision making is not a trivial task. Models need to possess a number of desirable characteristics and few, if any, current modelling approaches based on statistical or artificial intelligence can produce models that display all these characteristics. The inability of modelling techniques to provide truly useful models has led to interest in these models being purely academic in nature. This in turn has resulted in only a very small percentage of models that have been developed being deployed in practice. On the other hand, new modelling paradigms are being proposed continuously within the machine learning and statistical community and claims, often based on inadequate evaluation, being made on their superiority over traditional modelling methods. We believe that for new modelling approaches to deliver true net benefits over traditional techniques, an evaluation centric approach to their development is essential. In this paper we present such an evaluation centric approach to developing extensions to the basic k-nearest neighbour (k-NN) paradigm. We use standard statistical techniques to enhance the distance metric used and a framework based on evidence theory to obtain a prediction for the target example from the outcome of the retrieved exemplars. We refer to this new k-NN algorithm as Censored k-NN (Ck-NN). This reflects the enhancements made to k-NN that are aimed at providing a means for handling censored observations within k-NN.

  1. An animal model of co-existing sarcopenia and osteoporotic fracture in senescence accelerated mouse prone 8 (SAMP8). (United States)

    Zhang, Ning; Chow, Simon Kwoon Ho; Leung, Kwok Sui; Lee, Ho Hin; Cheung, Wing Hoi


    Sarcopenia and osteoporotic fracture are common aging-related musculoskeletal problems. Recent evidences report that osteoporotic fracture patients showed high prevalence of sarcopenia; however, current clinical practice basically does not consider sarcopenia in the treatment or rehabilitation of osteoporotic fracture. There is almost no report studying the relationship of the co-existing of sarcopenia and osteoporotic fracture healing. In this study, we validated aged senescence accelerated mouse prone 8 (SAMP8) and senescence accelerated mouse resistant 1 (SAMR1) as animal models of senile osteoporosis with/without sarcopenia. Bone mineral density (BMD) at the 5th lumbar and muscle testing of the two animal strains were measured to confirm the status of osteoporosis and sarcopenia, respectively. Closed fracture was created on the right femur of 8-month-old animals. Radiographs were taken weekly post-fracture. MicroCT and histology of the fractured femur were performed at week 2, 4 and 6 post-fracture, while mechanical test of both femora at week 4 and 6 post-fracture. Results showed that the callus of SAMR1 was significantly larger at week 2 but smaller at week 6 post-fracture than SAMP8. Mechanical properties were significantly better at week 4 post-fracture in SAMR1 than SAMP8, indicating osteoporotic fracture healing was delayed in sarcopenic SAMP8. This study validated an animal model of co-existing sarcopenia and osteoporotic fracture, where a delayed fracture healing might be resulted in the presence of sarcopenia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Structural modeling of Vpu from HIV-1 based on solid-state NMR observables (United States)

    Ahn, SeonJoo; Lim, GyuTae; Nam, Seungyoon; Lee, Jinhyuk


    Vpu is one of the accessory proteins of HIV-1, and is involved in viral particle release. Viral particle release is enhanced by two proposed functions of Vpu: (i) tetherin interaction and (ii) membrane polarization. Two Vpu functions in viral particle release are still controversial. Here, we investigated the proposed functions by extensive structural modeling of Vpu based on solid-state NMR (Nuclear Magnetic Resonance) observables. We found that Vpu can co-exist in two structural forms: left-handed and right-handed conformation. The co-existence of the two conformations provides a clue to reconcile the controversial issue of its two functions in virus particle release.

  3. Use of an Existing Airborne Radon Data Base in the Verification of the NASA/AEAP Core Model (United States)

    Kritz, Mark A.


    The primary objective of this project was to apply the tropospheric atmospheric radon (Rn222) measurements to the development and verification of the global 3-D atmospheric chemical transport model under development by NASA's Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP). The AEAP project had two principal components: (1) a modeling effort, whose goal was to create, test and apply an elaborate three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport model (the NASA/AEAP Core model to an evaluation of the possible short and long-term effects of aircraft emissions on atmospheric chemistry and climate--and (2) a measurement effort, whose goal was to obtain a focused set of atmospheric measurements that would provide some of the observational data used in the modeling effort. My activity in this project was confined to the first of these components. Both atmospheric transport and atmospheric chemical reactions (as well the input and removal of chemical species) are accounted for in the NASA/AEAP Core model. Thus, for example, in assessing the effect of aircraft effluents on the chemistry of a given region of the upper troposphere, the model must keep track not only of the chemical reactions of the effluent species emitted by aircraft flying in this region, but also of the transport into the region of these (and other) species from other, remote sources--for example, via the vertical convection of boundary layer air to the upper troposphere. Radon, because of its known surface source and known radioactive half-life, and freedom from chemical production or loss, and from removal from the atmosphere by physical scavenging, is a recognized and valuable tool for testing the transport components of global transport and circulation models.


    NARCIS (Netherlands)



    We present new high-resolution observations of the central region in the late-type spiral galaxy M100 (NGC 4321) supplemented by three-dimensional numerical modeling of stellar and gas dynamics, including star formation (SF). Near-infrared imaging has revealed a small bulge of 4'' effective

  5. Made-to-measure modelling of observed galaxy dynamics (United States)

    Bovy, Jo; Kawata, Daisuke; Hunt, Jason A. S.


    Amongst dynamical modelling techniques, the made-to-measure (M2M) method for modelling steady-state systems is amongst the most flexible, allowing non-parametric distribution functions in complex gravitational potentials to be modelled efficiently using N-body particles. Here, we propose and test various improvements to the standard M2M method for modelling observed data, illustrated using the simple set-up of a one-dimensional harmonic oscillator. We demonstrate that nuisance parameters describing the modelled system's orientation with respect to the observer - e.g. an external galaxy's inclination or the Sun's position in the Milky Way - as well as the parameters of an external gravitational field can be optimized simultaneously with the particle weights. We develop a method for sampling from the high-dimensional uncertainty distribution of the particle weights. We combine this in a Gibbs sampler with samplers for the nuisance and potential parameters to explore the uncertainty distribution of the full set of parameters. We illustrate our M2M improvements by modelling the vertical density and kinematics of F-type stars in Gaia DR1. The novel M2M method proposed here allows full probabilistic modelling of steady-state dynamical systems, allowing uncertainties on the non-parametric distribution function and on nuisance parameters to be taken into account when constraining the dark and baryonic masses of stellar systems.

  6. Filtering a statistically exactly solvable test model for turbulent tracers from partial observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gershgorin, B.; Majda, A.J.


    A statistically exactly solvable model for passive tracers is introduced as a test model for the authors' Nonlinear Extended Kalman Filter (NEKF) as well as other filtering algorithms. The model involves a Gaussian velocity field and a passive tracer governed by the advection-diffusion equation with an imposed mean gradient. The model has direct relevance to engineering problems such as the spread of pollutants in the air or contaminants in the water as well as climate change problems concerning the transport of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide with strongly intermittent probability distributions consistent with the actual observations of the atmosphere. One of the attractive properties of the model is the existence of the exact statistical solution. In particular, this unique feature of the model provides an opportunity to design and test fast and efficient algorithms for real-time data assimilation based on rigorous mathematical theory for a turbulence model problem with many active spatiotemporal scales. Here, we extensively study the performance of the NEKF which uses the exact first and second order nonlinear statistics without any approximations due to linearization. The role of partial and sparse observations, the frequency of observations and the observation noise strength in recovering the true signal, its spectrum, and fat tail probability distribution are the central issues discussed here. The results of our study provide useful guidelines for filtering realistic turbulent systems with passive tracers through partial observations.

  7. An initial study on modeling the existing and anticipated fleet of thermal and fast reactors using VENSIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinton, S.; Tokuhiro, A.


    The United States current has a fleet of approximately 100 operating LWRs (thermal) supplying about 20% of the electricity demand of the country. Many of these units have or are anticipated, under plant life extension, to be in service a total of some 60 years. At the same time, forecasts on energy demand and deployment strategies of nuclear power plants (NPPs) over the next 100+ years, indicate that all 100 existing NPPs need to be replaced and as many as 100 additional NPPs need to be added to the fleet in order to meet energy demands and stem further accumulation of GHGs from fossil-fuel based energy sources. Conservatively, at least 20 and more likely 50-75 NPPs need to be newly deployed. Further, to make strides toward energy security and sustainability, the Global Nuclear Energy Project (GNEP) is promoting gradual integration of MOX burning LWRs, fuel reprocessing and deployment of fast reactors (FBRs/FRs) into the global fleet. Consideration of MOX, reprocessing and FBRs merit some consideration with respect to uranium ore resources over the time period of interest. In the present study we developed a basic temporal model over the next 30 to 60 years of existing NPPs and new NPPs to be deployed. Initially, we considered four reactor 'categories' over the time period of interest as follows: 1) LWRs (currently operating but) to be decommissioned during the time period, 2) LWRs to be burn MOX fuel during the its operating lifetime, 3) new LWRs to replace decommissioned units and/or added to the fleet and 4) new FRs to replace decommissioned units and/or added to the fleet. The develop the model, we initially used the visual dynamic modeling software, VENSIM. In the study we considered a number of variables such as new NPP (LWRs and FRs) construction rate, decommissioning rate, conversion rate to MOX fueled and overall growth rate of the fleet. We will present results to date on various decommissioning, deployment and electricity demand scenarios relative to

  8. Multi-epitope Models Explain How Pre-existing Antibodies Affect the Generation of Broadly Protective Responses to Influenza.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika I Zarnitsyna


    Full Text Available The development of next-generation influenza vaccines that elicit strain-transcendent immunity against both seasonal and pandemic viruses is a key public health goal. Targeting the evolutionarily conserved epitopes on the stem of influenza's major surface molecule, hemagglutinin, is an appealing prospect, and novel vaccine formulations show promising results in animal model systems. However, studies in humans indicate that natural infection and vaccination result in limited boosting of antibodies to the stem of HA, and the level of stem-specific antibody elicited is insufficient to provide broad strain-transcendent immunity. Here, we use mathematical models of the humoral immune response to explore how pre-existing immunity affects the ability of vaccines to boost antibodies to the head and stem of HA in humans, and, in particular, how it leads to the apparent lack of boosting of broadly cross-reactive antibodies to the stem epitopes. We consider hypotheses where binding of antibody to an epitope: (i results in more rapid clearance of the antigen; (ii leads to the formation of antigen-antibody complexes which inhibit B cell activation through Fcγ receptor-mediated mechanism; and (iii masks the epitope and prevents the stimulation and proliferation of specific B cells. We find that only epitope masking but not the former two mechanisms to be key in recapitulating patterns in data. We discuss the ramifications of our findings for the development of vaccines against both seasonal and pandemic influenza.

  9. Life Cycle Assessment Modelling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Existing and Proposed Municipal Solid Waste Management System of Lahore, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adila Batool Syeda


    Full Text Available Open Dumping of indiscriminate municipal solid waste (MSW remarkably contributes to global warming (GW. Life Cycle Assessment modelling may be a useful tool for assessing the best waste management option regarding GW potential. The current study evaluates the contribution of an existing MSW management (MSWM system to greenhouse gases in Gulberg Town, Lahore, Pakistan. This research also presents a comparison of scenarios with different waste management options. Life Cycle Assessment methodology has been used to conduct the study. EASETECH has been used for modelling. The short-term scenarios (STSs have been developed to promote the thinking of integration of treatment technologies in the current waste management system within a few months. The results show that the major contribution to the total emissions comes from the anaerobic digestion of organic material from open waste dumps. Currently, recycling is the best treatment option for reducing the CO2-eq values in the study area. It was clarified that recycling is the best option for reducing the CO2-eq values, whereas biogasification comes in second in terms of savings and reduction. The integration of recycling and biogasification techniques would be a good solution.

  10. Obs4MIPS: Satellite Observations for Model Evaluation (United States)

    Ferraro, R.; Waliser, D. E.; Gleckler, P. J.


    This poster will review the current status of the obs4MIPs project, whose purpose is to provide a limited collection of well-established and documented datasets for comparison with Earth system models ( These datasets have been reformatted to correspond with the CMIP5 model output requirements, and include technical documentation specifically targeted for their use in model output evaluation. The project holdings now exceed 120 datasets with observations that directly correspond to CMIP5 model output variables, with new additions in response to the CMIP6 experiments. With the growth in climate model output data volume, it is increasing more difficult to bring the model output and the observations together to do evaluations. The positioning of the obs4MIPs datasets within the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) allows for the use of currently available and planned online tools within the ESGF to perform analysis using model output and observational datasets without necessarily downloading everything to a local workstation. This past year, obs4MIPs has updated its submission guidelines to closely align with changes in the CMIP6 experiments, and is implementing additional indicators and ancillary data to allow users to more easily determine the efficacy of an obs4MIPs dataset for specific evaluation purposes. This poster will present the new guidelines and indicators, and update the list of current obs4MIPs holdings and their connection to the ESGF evaluation and analysis tools currently available, and being developed for the CMIP6 experiments.

  11. An observer model for quantifying panning artifacts in digital pathology (United States)

    Avanaki, Ali R. N.; Espig, Kathryn S.; Xthona, Albert; Lanciault, Christian; Kimpe, Tom R. L.


    Typically, pathologists pan from one region of a slide to another, choosing areas of interest for closer inspection. Due to finite frame rate and imperfect zero-order hold reconstruction (i.e., the non-zero time to reach the target brightness after a change in pixel drive), panning in whole slide images (WSI) cause visual artifacts. It is important to study the impact of such artifacts since research suggests that 49% of navigation is conducted in low-power/overview with digital pathology (Molin et al., Histopathology 2015). In this paper, we explain what types of medical information may be harmed by panning artifacts, propose a method to simulate panning artifacts, and design an observer model to predict the impact of panning artifacts on typical human observers' performance in basic diagnostically relevant visual tasks. The proposed observer model is based on derivation of perceived object border maps from luminance and chrominance information and may be tuned to account for visual acuity of the human observer to be modeled. Our results suggest that increasing the contrast (e.g., using a wide gamut display) with a slow response panel may not mitigate the panning artifacts which mostly affect visual tasks involving spatial discrimination of objects (e.g., normal vs abnormal structure, cell type and spatial relationships between them, and low-power nuclear morphology), and that the panning artifacts worsen with increasing panning speed. The proposed methods may be used as building blocks in an automatic WSI quality assessment framework.

  12. Laguerre-Gauss basis functions in observer models (United States)

    Burgess, Arthur E.


    Observer models based on linear classifiers with basis functions (channels) are useful for evaluation of detection performance with medical images. They allow spatial domain calculations with a covariance matrix of tractable size. The term "channelized Fisher-Hotelling observer" will be used here. It is also called the "channelized Hotelling observer" model. There are an infinite number of basis function (channel ) sets that could be employed. Examples of channel sets that have been used include: difference of Gaussian (DOG) filters, difference of Mesa (DOM) filters and Laguerre-Gauss (LG) basis functions. Another option, sums of LG functions (LGS), will also be presented here. This set has the advantage of having no DC response. The effect of the number of images used to estimate model observer performance will be described, for both filtered 1/f3 noise and GE digital mammogram backgrounds. Finite sample image sets introduce both bias and variance to the estimate. The results presented here agree with previous work on linear classifiers. The LGS basis set gives a small but statistically significant reduction in bias. However, this may not be of much practical benefit. Finally, the effect of varying the number of basis functions included in the set will be addressed. It was found that four LG bases or three LGS bases are adequate.

  13. Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses (United States)

    Mao, Jingqiu; Carlton, Annmarie; Cohen, Ronald C.; Brune, William H.; Brown, Steven S.; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Jimenez, Jose L.; Pye, Havala O. T.; Ng, Nga Lee; Xu, Lu; McNeill, V. Faye; Tsigaridis, Kostas; McDonald, Brian C.; Warneke, Carsten; Guenther, Alex; Alvarado, Matthew J.; de Gouw, Joost; Mickley, Loretta J.; Leibensperger, Eric M.; Mathur, Rohit; Nolte, Christopher G.; Portmann, Robert W.; Unger, Nadine; Tosca, Mika; Horowitz, Larry W.


    Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes) elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS) conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales.This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and elsewhere. Here we

  14. Southeast Atmosphere Studies: learning from model-observation syntheses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mao


    Full Text Available Concentrations of atmospheric trace species in the United States have changed dramatically over the past several decades in response to pollution control strategies, shifts in domestic energy policy and economics, and economic development (and resulting emission changes elsewhere in the world. Reliable projections of the future atmosphere require models to not only accurately describe current atmospheric concentrations, but to do so by representing chemical, physical and biological processes with conceptual and quantitative fidelity. Only through incorporation of the processes controlling emissions and chemical mechanisms that represent the key transformations among reactive molecules can models reliably project the impacts of future policy, energy and climate scenarios. Efforts to properly identify and implement the fundamental and controlling mechanisms in atmospheric models benefit from intensive observation periods, during which collocated measurements of diverse, speciated chemicals in both the gas and condensed phases are obtained. The Southeast Atmosphere Studies (SAS, including SENEX, SOAS, NOMADSS and SEAC4RS conducted during the summer of 2013 provided an unprecedented opportunity for the atmospheric modeling community to come together to evaluate, diagnose and improve the representation of fundamental climate and air quality processes in models of varying temporal and spatial scales.This paper is aimed at discussing progress in evaluating, diagnosing and improving air quality and climate modeling using comparisons to SAS observations as a guide to thinking about improvements to mechanisms and parameterizations in models. The effort focused primarily on model representation of fundamental atmospheric processes that are essential to the formation of ozone, secondary organic aerosol (SOA and other trace species in the troposphere, with the ultimate goal of understanding the radiative impacts of these species in the southeast and

  15. Modelling and observing urban climate in the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hove, B.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Heusinkveld, B.; Holtslag, B.; Jacobs, C.; Ter Maat, H.; Elbers, J.; Moors, E.


    The main aims of the present study are: (1) to evaluate the performance of two well-known mesoscale NWP (numerical weather prediction) models coupled to a UCM (Urban Canopy Models), and (2) to develop a proper measurement strategy for obtaining meteorological data that can be used in model evaluation studies. We choose the mesoscale models WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) and RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System), respectively, because the partners in the present project have a large expertise with respect to these models. In addition WRF and RAMS have been successfully used in the meteorology and climate research communities for various purposes, including weather prediction and land-atmosphere interaction research. Recently, state-of-the-art UCM's were embedded within the land surface scheme of the respective models, in order to better represent the exchange of heat, momentum, and water vapour in the urban environment. Key questions addressed here are: What is the general model performance with respect to the urban environment?; How can useful and observational data be obtained that allow sensible validation and further parameterization of the models?; and Can the models be easily modified to simulate the urban climate under Dutch climatic conditions, urban configuration and morphology? Chapter 2 reviews the available Urban Canopy Models; we discuss their theoretical basis, the different representations of the urban environment, the required input and the output. Much of the information was obtained from the Urban Surface Energy Balance: Land Surface Scheme Comparison project (PILPS URBAN, PILPS stands for Project for Inter-comparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes). This project started in March 2008 and was coordinated by the Department of Geography, King's College London. In order to test the performance of our models we participated in this project. Chapter 3 discusses the main results of the first phase of PILPS URBAN. A first

  16. The influence of pre-existing rib fractures on Global Human Body Models Consortium thorax response in frontal and oblique impact. (United States)

    Zaseck, Lauren Wood; Chen, Cong; Hu, Jingwen; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan


    Many post-mortem human subjects (PMHS) considered for use in biomechanical impact tests have pre-existing rib fractures (PERFs), usually resulting from cardiopulmonary resuscitation. These specimens are typically excluded from impact studies with the assumption that the fractures will alter the thoracic response to loading. We previously used the Global Human Body Models Consortium 50th percentile whole-body finite element model (GHBMC M50-O) to demonstrate that up to three lateral or bilateral PERFs do not meaningfully influence the response of the GHBMC thorax to lateral loading. This current study used the GHBMC M50-O to explore the influence of PERFs on thorax response in frontal and oblique loading. Up to six PERFs were simulated on the anterior or lateral rib regions, and the model was subjected to frontal or oblique cylindrical impactor, frontal seatbelt, or frontal seatbelt + airbag loading. Changes in thorax force-compression responses due to PERFs were generally minor, with the greatest alterations seen in models with six PERFs on one side of the ribcage. The observed changes, however, were small relative to mid-size male corridors for the loading conditions simulated. PERFs altered rib strain patterns, but the changes did not translate to changes in global thoracic response. Within the limits of model fidelity, the results suggest that PMHS with up to six PERFs may be appropriate for use in frontal or oblique impact testing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. CrowdWater - Can people observe what models need? (United States)

    van Meerveld, I. H. J.; Seibert, J.; Vis, M.; Etter, S.; Strobl, B.


    CrowdWater ( is a citizen science project that explores the usefulness of crowd-sourced data for hydrological model calibration and prediction. Hydrological models are usually calibrated based on observed streamflow data but it is likely easier for people to estimate relative stream water levels, such as the water level above or below a rock, than streamflow. Relative stream water levels may, therefore, be a more suitable variable for citizen science projects than streamflow. In order to test this assumption, we held surveys near seven different sized rivers in Switzerland and asked more than 450 volunteers to estimate the water level class based on a picture with a virtual staff gauge. The results show that people can generally estimate the relative water level well, although there were also a few outliers. We also asked the volunteers to estimate streamflow based on the stick method. The median estimated streamflow was close to the observed streamflow but the spread in the streamflow estimates was large and there were very large outliers, suggesting that crowd-based streamflow data is highly uncertain. In order to determine the potential value of water level class data for model calibration, we converted streamflow time series for 100 catchments in the US to stream level class time series and used these to calibrate the HBV model. The model was then validated using the streamflow data. The results of this modeling exercise show that stream level class data are useful for constraining a simple runoff model. Time series of only two stream level classes, e.g. above or below a rock in the stream, were already informative, especially when the class boundary was chosen towards the highest stream levels. There was hardly any improvement in model performance when more than five water level classes were used. This suggests that if crowd-sourced stream level observations are available for otherwise ungauged catchments, these data can be used to constrain

  18. Observations and Models of Highly Intermittent Phytoplankton Distributions (United States)

    Mandal, Sandip; Locke, Christopher; Tanaka, Mamoru; Yamazaki, Hidekatsu


    The measurement of phytoplankton distributions in ocean ecosystems provides the basis for elucidating the influences of physical processes on plankton dynamics. Technological advances allow for measurement of phytoplankton data to greater resolution, displaying high spatial variability. In conventional mathematical models, the mean value of the measured variable is approximated to compare with the model output, which may misinterpret the reality of planktonic ecosystems, especially at the microscale level. To consider intermittency of variables, in this work, a new modelling approach to the planktonic ecosystem is applied, called the closure approach. Using this approach for a simple nutrient-phytoplankton model, we have shown how consideration of the fluctuating parts of model variables can affect system dynamics. Also, we have found a critical value of variance of overall fluctuating terms below which the conventional non-closure model and the mean value from the closure model exhibit the same result. This analysis gives an idea about the importance of the fluctuating parts of model variables and about when to use the closure approach. Comparisons of plot of mean versus standard deviation of phytoplankton at different depths, obtained using this new approach with real observations, give this approach good conformity. PMID:24787740

  19. Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models (United States)

    Marchenko, Sergey V.; DeLand, Matthew T.; Lean, Judith L.


    Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), we characterize both short-term (solar rotation) and long-term (solar cycle) changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2) and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2) and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S) models.

  20. Solar spectral irradiance variability in cycle 24: observations and models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchenko Sergey V.


    Full Text Available Utilizing the excellent stability of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, we characterize both short-term (solar rotation and long-term (solar cycle changes of the solar spectral irradiance (SSI between 265 and 500 nm during the ongoing cycle 24. We supplement the OMI data with concurrent observations from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment-2 (GOME-2 and Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE instruments and find fair-to-excellent, depending on wavelength, agreement among the observations, and predictions of the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance (NRLSSI2 and Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction for the Satellite era (SATIRE-S models.

  1. Observational constraints from models of close binary evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greve, J.P. de; Packet, W.


    The evolution of a system of 9 solar masses + 5.4 solar masses is computed from Zero Age Main Sequence through an early case B of mass exchange, up to the second phase of mass transfer after core helium burning. Both components are calculated simultaneously. The evolution is divided into several physically different phases. The characteristics of the models in each of these phases are transformed into corresponding 'observable' quantities. The outlook of the system for photometric observations is discussed, for an idealized case. The influence of the mass of the loser and the initial mass ratio is considered. (Auth.)

  2. Multi-observation integrated model of troposphere - current status (United States)

    Wilgan, Karina; Rohm, Witold; Bosy, Jarosław; Sierny, Jan; Kapłon, Jan; Hadaś, Tomasz; Hordyniec, Paweł


    The Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and meteorological observation systems in the past decades were developed to address separate challenges and were used by different communities. Currently, the inter-dependence between meteorology and GNSS processing is growing up, providing both communities incentives, data and research challenges. The GNSS community uses meteorological observations as well as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models to reduce the troposphere impact on the signal propagation (i.e. eliminate tropospheric delay). On the other hand, meteorology community is assimilating the GNSS observations into weather forecasting, nowcasting or climate studies. To seamlessly use observations from both sides of the GNSS and meteorology spectra, the data have to be interoperable. In this study we present a current status of establishing an integrated model of troposphere. We investigated and compared a number of meteorological and GNSS data sources that are going to be integrated into the troposphere model with high temporal and spatial resolution. The integrated model will provide values of meteorological and GNSS parameters at any point and any time with known accuracy. First step in building this model is to inter-compare all available data sources and to establish the accuracy of parameters. Three main data sources were compared: ground-based GNSS products on ASG-EUPOS stations, NWP model COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/ Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) and meteorological parameters from three kinds of stations - EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) stations, meteorological sensors at airports and synoptic Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. Data was provided with different temporal and spatial resolution, so it had to be interpolated prior to inter-comparison. Afterwards, the quality of the data was established. The results show that NWP model data quality is: 4hPa in terms of air pressure, 2hPa in terms of water vapor partial pressure, and 6K in

  3. New Cosmological Model and Its Implications on Observational Data Interpretation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlahovic Branislav


    Full Text Available The paradigm of ΛCDM cosmology works impressively well and with the concept of inflation it explains the universe after the time of decoupling. However there are still a few concerns; after much effort there is no detection of dark matter and there are significant problems in the theoretical description of dark energy. We will consider a variant of the cosmological spherical shell model, within FRW formalism and will compare it with the standard ΛCDM model. We will show that our new topological model satisfies cosmological principles and is consistent with all observable data, but that it may require new interpretation for some data. Considered will be constraints imposed on the model, as for instance the range for the size and allowed thickness of the shell, by the supernovae luminosity distance and CMB data. In this model propagation of the light is confined along the shell, which has as a consequence that observed CMB originated from one point or a limited space region. It allows to interpret the uniformity of the CMB without inflation scenario. In addition this removes any constraints on the uniformity of the universe at the early stage and opens a possibility that the universe was not uniform and that creation of galaxies and large structures is due to the inhomogeneities that originated in the Big Bang.

  4. A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties

    KAUST Repository

    Zayane, Chadia


    This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial knowledge of the so-called balloon model describing the hemodynamic behavior of the brain. To overcome this difficulty, a High Order Sliding Mode observer is applied to the balloon system, where the unknown coupling is considered as an internal perturbation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through a set of synthetic data that mimic fMRI experiments.

  5. Modelling shear wave splitting observations from Wellington, New Zealand (United States)

    Marson-Pidgeon, Katrina; Savage, Martha K.


    Frequency-dependent anisotropy was previously observed at the permanent broad-band station SNZO, South Karori, Wellington, New Zealand. This has important implications for the interpretation of measurements in other subduction zones and hence for our understanding of mantle flow. This motivated us to make further splitting measurements using events recorded since the previous study and to develop a new modelling technique. Thus, in this study we have made 67 high-quality shear wave splitting measurements using events recorded at the SNZO station spanning a 10-yr period. This station is the only one operating in New Zealand for longer than 2 yr. Using a combination of teleseismic SKS and S phases and regional ScS phases provides good azimuthal coverage, allowing us to undertake detailed modelling. The splitting measurements indicate that in addition to the frequency dependence observed previously at this station, there are also variations with propagation and initial polarization directions. The fast polarization directions range between 2° and 103°, and the delay times range between 0.75 s and 3.05 s. These ranges are much larger than observed previously at SNZO or elsewhere in New Zealand. Because of the observed frequency dependence we measure the dominant frequency of the phase used to make the splitting measurement, and take this into account in the modelling. We fit the fast polarization directions fairly well with a two-layer anisotropic model with horizontal axes of symmetry. However, such a model does not fit the delay times or explain the frequency dependence. We have developed a new inversion method which allows for an inclined axis of symmetry in each of the two layers. However, applying this method to SNZO does not significantly improve the fit over a two-layer model with horizontal symmetry axes. We are therefore unable to explain the frequency dependence or large variation in delay time values with multiple horizontal layers of anisotropy, even

  6. Observational constraints on tachyonic chameleon dark energy model (United States)

    Banijamali, A.; Bellucci, S.; Fazlpour, B.; Solbi, M.


    It has been recently shown that tachyonic chameleon model of dark energy in which tachyon scalar field non-minimally coupled to the matter admits stable scaling attractor solution that could give rise to the late-time accelerated expansion of the universe and hence alleviate the coincidence problem. In the present work, we use data from Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) and Baryon Acoustic oscillations to place constraints on the model parameters. In our analysis we consider in general exponential and non-exponential forms for the non-minimal coupling function and tachyonic potential and show that the scenario is compatible with observations.

  7. Model dependence of isospin sensitive observables at high densities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Wen-Mei; Yong, Gao-Chan; Wang, Yongjia; Li, Qingfeng; Zhang, Hongfei; Zuo, Wei


    Within two different frameworks of isospin-dependent transport model, i.e., Boltzmann–Uehling–Uhlenbeck (IBUU04) and Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics (UrQMD) transport models, sensitive probes of nuclear symmetry energy are simulated and compared. It is shown that neutron to proton ratio of free nucleons, π − /π + ratio as well as isospin-sensitive transverse and elliptic flows given by the two transport models with their “best settings”, all have obvious differences. Discrepancy of numerical value of isospin-sensitive n/p ratio of free nucleon from the two models mainly originates from different symmetry potentials used and discrepancies of numerical value of charged π − /π + ratio and isospin-sensitive flows mainly originate from different isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross sections. These demonstrations call for more detailed studies on the model inputs (i.e., the density- and momentum-dependent symmetry potential and the isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross section in medium) of isospin-dependent transport model used. The studies of model dependence of isospin sensitive observables can help nuclear physicists to pin down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy through comparison between experiments and theoretical simulations scientifically

  8. The link between laboratory/field observations and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cole, C.R.; Foley, M.G.


    The various linkages in system performance assessments that integrate disposal program elements must be understood. The linkage between model development and field/laboratory observations is described as the iterative program of site and system characterization for development of an observational-confirmatory data base. This data base is designed to develop, improve, and support conceptual models for site and system behavior. The program consists of data gathering and experiments to demonstrate understanding at various spatial and time scales and degrees of complexity. Understanding and accounting for the decreasing characterization certainty that arises with increasing space and time scales is an important aspect of the link between models and observations. The performance allocation process for setting performance goals and confidence levels, coupled with a performance assessment approach that provides these performance and confidence estimates, will determine when sufficient characterization has been achieved. At each iteration, performance allocation goals are reviewed and revised as necessary. The updated data base and appropriate performance assessment tools and approaches are utilized to identify and design additional tests and data needs necessary to meet current performance allocation goals

  9. Methylene blue does not reverse existing neurofibrillary tangle pathology in the rTg4510 mouse model of tauopathy. (United States)

    Spires-Jones, Tara L; Friedman, Taylor; Pitstick, Rose; Polydoro, Manuela; Roe, Allyson; Carlson, George A; Hyman, Bradley T


    Alzheimer's disease is characterized pathologically by aggregation of amyloid beta into senile plaques and aggregation of pathologically modified tau into neurofibrillary tangles. While changes in amyloid processing are strongly implicated in disease initiation, the recent failure of amyloid-based therapies has highlighted the importance of tau as a therapeutic target. "Tangle busting" compounds including methylene blue and analogous molecules are currently being evaluated as therapeutics in Alzheimer's disease. Previous studies indicated that methylene blue can reverse tau aggregation in vitro after 10 min, and subsequent studies suggested that high levels of drug reduce tau protein levels (assessed biochemically) in vivo. Here, we tested whether methylene blue could remove established neurofibrillary tangles in the rTg4510 model of tauopathy, which develops robust tangle pathology. We find that 6 weeks of methylene blue dosing in the water from 16 months to 17.5 months of age decreases soluble tau but does not remove sarkosyl insoluble tau, or histologically defined PHF1 or Gallyas positive tangle pathology. These data indicate that methylene blue treatment will likely not rapidly reverse existing tangle pathology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Observer analysis and its impact on task performance modeling (United States)

    Jacobs, Eddie L.; Brown, Jeremy B.


    Fire fighters use relatively low cost thermal imaging cameras to locate hot spots and fire hazards in buildings. This research describes the analyses performed to study the impact of thermal image quality on fire fighter fire hazard detection task performance. Using human perception data collected by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) for fire fighters detecting hazards in a thermal image, an observer analysis was performed to quantify the sensitivity and bias of each observer. Using this analysis, the subjects were divided into three groups representing three different levels of performance. The top-performing group was used for the remainder of the modeling. Models were developed which related image quality factors such as contrast, brightness, spatial resolution, and noise to task performance probabilities. The models were fitted to the human perception data using logistic regression, as well as probit regression. Probit regression was found to yield superior fits and showed that models with not only 2nd order parameter interactions, but also 3rd order parameter interactions performed the best.

  11. General Description of Fission Observables - JEFF Report 24. GEF Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, Karl-Heinz; Jurado, Beatriz; Amouroux, Charlotte


    The Joint Evaluated Fission and Fusion (JEFF) Project is a collaborative effort among the member countries of the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Data Bank to develop a reference nuclear data library. The JEFF library contains sets of evaluated nuclear data, mainly for fission and fusion applications; it contains a number of different data types, including neutron and proton interaction data, radioactive decay data, fission yield data and thermal scattering law data. The General fission (GEF) model is based on novel theoretical concepts and ideas developed to model low energy nuclear fission. The GEF code calculates fission-fragment yields and associated quantities (e.g. prompt neutron and gamma) for a large range of nuclei and excitation energy. This opens up the possibility of a qualitative step forward to improve further the JEFF fission yields sub-library. This report describes the GEF model which explains the complex appearance of fission observables by universal principles of theoretical models and considerations on the basis of fundamental laws of physics and mathematics. The approach reveals a high degree of regularity and provides a considerable insight into the physics of the fission process. Fission observables can be calculated with a precision that comply with the needs for applications in nuclear technology. The relevance of the approach for examining the consistency of experimental results and for evaluating nuclear data is demonstrated. (authors)

  12. Photochemistry of an Urban Region using Observations and Numerical Modeling (United States)

    Cantrell, C. A.; Mauldin, L.; Mukherjee, A. D.; Flocke, F. M.; Pfister, G.; Apel, E. C.; Bahreini, R.; Blake, D. R.; Blake, N. J.; Campos, T. L.; Cohen, R. C.; Farmer, D.; Fried, A.; Guenther, A. B.; Hall, S. R.; Heikes, B.; Hornbrook, R. S.; Huey, L. G.; Karl, T.; Kaser, L.; Nowak, J. B.; Ortega, J. V.; O'Sullivan, D. W.; Richter, D.; Smith, J. N.; Tanner, D.; Townsend-Small, A.; Ullmann, K.; Walega, J.; Weibring, P.; Weinheimer, A. J.


    The chemistry of HOx radicals in the troposphere can lead to the production of secondary products such as ozone and aerosols, while volatile organic compounds are degraded. The production rates and identities of secondary products depend on the abundance of NOx and other parameters. The amounts of VOCs and NOx can also affect the concentrations of OH, HO2 and RO2. Comparison of observations and model-derived values of HOx species can provide one way to assess the completeness and accuracy of model mechanisms. The functional dependence of measure-model agreement on various controlling parameters can also reveal details of current understanding of photochemistry in urban regions. During the Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPE), conducted during the summer of 2014, observations from ground-based and airborne platforms were performed to study the evolution of atmospheric composition over the Denver metropolitan area. Of particular interest in FRAPPE was the assessment of the roles of mixing of emissions from oil and gas exploration and extraction, and those from confined animal production operations, with urban emissions (e.g. from transportation, energy production, and industrial processes) on air quality in the metropolitan and surrounding region. Our group made measurements of OH, HO2, and HO2 + RO2 from the NSF/NCAR C-130 aircraft platform using selected ion chemical ionization mass spectrometry. The C-130 was equipped with instrumentation for the observation of a wide variety of photochemical-related species and parameters. These data are used to assess the photochemical regimes encountered during the period of the study, and to quantitatively describe the chemical processes involved in formation of secondary products. One of the tools used is a steady state model for short-lived species such as those that we observed. This presentation summarizes the behavior of species that were measured during FRAPPE and what the observations reveal

  13. Updated observational constraints on quintessence dark energy models (United States)

    Durrive, Jean-Baptiste; Ooba, Junpei; Ichiki, Kiyotomo; Sugiyama, Naoshi


    The recent GW170817 measurement favors the simplest dark energy models, such as a single scalar field. Quintessence models can be classified in two classes, freezing and thawing, depending on whether the equation of state decreases towards -1 or departs from it. In this paper, we put observational constraints on the parameters governing the equations of state of tracking freezing, scaling freezing, and thawing models using updated data, from the Planck 2015 release, joint light-curve analysis, and baryonic acoustic oscillations. Because of the current tensions on the value of the Hubble parameter H0, unlike previous authors, we let this parameter vary, which modifies significantly the results. Finally, we also derive constraints on neutrino masses in each of these scenarios.

  14. Realistic modelling of observed seismic motion in complex sedimentary basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faeh, D.; Panza, G.F.


    Three applications of a numerical technique are illustrated to model realistically the seismic ground motion for complex two-dimensional structures. First we consider a sedimentary basin in the Friuli region, and we model strong motion records from an aftershock of the 1976 earthquake. Then we simulate the ground motion caused in Rome by the 1915, Fucino (Italy) earthquake, and we compare our modelling with the damage distribution observed in the town. Finally we deal with the interpretation of ground motion recorded in Mexico City, as a consequence of earthquakes in the Mexican subduction zone. The synthetic signals explain the major characteristics (relative amplitudes, spectral amplification, frequency content) of the considered seismograms, and the space distribution of the available macroseismic data. For the sedimentary basin in the Friuli area, parametric studies demonstrate the relevant sensitivity of the computed ground motion to small changes in the subsurface topography of the sedimentary basin, and in the velocity and quality factor of the sediments. The total energy of ground motion, determined from our numerical simulation in Rome, is in very good agreement with the distribution of damage observed during the Fucino earthquake. For epicentral distances in the range 50km-100km, the source location and not only the local soil conditions control the local effects. For Mexico City, the observed ground motion can be explained as resonance effects and as excitation of local surface waves, and the theoretical and the observed maximum spectral amplifications are very similar. In general, our numerical simulations permit the estimate of the maximum and average spectral amplification for specific sites, i.e. are a very powerful tool for accurate micro-zonation. (author). 38 refs, 19 figs, 1 tab

  15. Observations and models of centrifugally supported magnetospheres in massive stars (United States)

    Oksala, Mary Elizabeth

    Magnetic massive stars, via their strong magnetic fields and radiation-driven winds, strongly influence the dynamical and chemical evolution of their surroundings. The interaction between these two intrinsic stellar properties can produce dynamic circumstellar structures, and, in the case of rapidly rotating stars, centrifugally supported magnetospheres. This thesis uses new observations to confront current magnetosphere models, testing their predictive power using photometry and spectropolarimetry of the prototypical magnetic B2Vp star sigma Ori E. In addition, we present the discovery of a magnetic field in a second rapidly rotating massive star. At the time of its discovery, this star was the most rapidly rotating non-degenerate magnetic star. We begin with an overview of magnetism in massive stars and wind-field interactions (Chapter 2) and the observational techniques involved in their study (Chapter 3), and summarize historical studies of sigma Ori E (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 describes the detection of rotational braking in sigma Ori E. We find a 77 ms yr-1 lengthening of the rotational period, corresponding to a spindown time of 1.34+0.10 -0.09 Myr. This observed period change agrees well with theoretical predictions for angular momentum loss in a magnetically channeled, line-driven wind. Next we present new spectropolarimetric observations of sigma Ori E (Chapter 6). The observed Halpha variability matches the predictions from a rigidly rotating magnetosphere (RRM) model with an offset dipole magnetic field configuration. However, our new, precise longitudinal magnetic field measurements reveal significant discrepancies with respect to the RRM model, challenging the current form as applied to sigma Ori E and suggesting that the field configuration of this star is more complex than a simple dipole. Chapter 7 describes the first detection of a magnetic field in the B2Vn star HR 7355. From analyzing photometric data, we find a 0.5214404(6) d rotational period

  16. 40 CFR Table 4 to Subpart Bbbb of... - Model Rule-Class II Emission Limits for Existing Small Municipal Waste Combustion Unit a (United States)


    ... Existing Small Municipal Waste Combustion Unit a 4 Table 4 to Subpart BBBB of Part 60 Protection of... NEW STATIONARY SOURCES Emission Guidelines and Compliance Times for Small Municipal Waste Combustion... Part 60—Model Rule—Class II Emission Limits for Existing Small Municipal Waste Combustion Unit a For...

  17. Land Surface Microwave Emissivity Dynamics: Observations, Analysis and Modeling (United States)

    Tian, Yudong; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Kumar, Sujay; Ringerud, Sarah


    Land surface microwave emissivity affects remote sensing of both the atmosphere and the land surface. The dynamical behavior of microwave emissivity over a very diverse sample of land surface types is studied. With seven years of satellite measurements from AMSR-E, we identified various dynamical regimes of the land surface emission. In addition, we used two radiative transfer models (RTMs), the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) and the Community Microwave Emission Modeling Platform (CMEM), to simulate land surface emissivity dynamics. With both CRTM and CMEM coupled to NASA's Land Information System, global-scale land surface microwave emissivities were simulated for five years, and evaluated against AMSR-E observations. It is found that both models have successes and failures over various types of land surfaces. Among them, the desert shows the most consistent underestimates (by approx. 70-80%), due to limitations of the physical models used, and requires a revision in both systems. Other snow-free surface types exhibit various degrees of success and it is expected that parameter tuning can improve their performances.

  18. Impact of disease control and co-existing risk factors on heart rate variability in Gujarati type 2 diabetics: An observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayesh Dalpatbhai Solanki


    Full Text Available Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM is a proven threat of cardiac dysautonomia with paucity of studies from India. Poor disease control makes it further worse with co-existence of hypertension in majority. Heart rate variability (HRV is a validated noninvasive tool to assess cardiac autonomic status. Aim: We studied HRV parameters of type 2 diabetics looking for effects of disease control and other co-existing risk factors. Materials and Methods: Ninety-eight hypertensive and forty normotensive under–treatment, Gujarati type 2 diabetics were evaluated for disease control and risk stratification. Five minutes resting, HRV was measured by Variowin HR, software-based instrument, using standard protocols to record time domain, frequency domain, and Poincare plot HRV parameters. They were compared between subgroups for the difference with P< 0.05 defining statistical significance. Results: All HRV parameters were reduced in type 2 diabetics, having mean age 56 years, mean duration 6 years with poor glycemic but comparatively better pressure control. HRV parameters were significantly not different in good compared to poor glycemics or in subjects with optimum pressure control than those without it. Results did not differ significantly, by the presence of individual cardiovascular risk factor in diabetics except resting heart rate. Conclusion: Our findings of HRV suggest that type 2 diabetics with poor glycemic control do not have a significant difference of cardiac dysautonomia by pressure control, glycemic control, and absence of risk cardiovascular factor. It suggests diabetes as a major cause for cardiac dysautonomia, residual risk despite treatment and need for HRV screening, strict glycemic control, and further studies.

  19. Improving Snow Modeling by Assimilating Observational Data Collected by Citizen Scientists (United States)

    Crumley, R. L.; Hill, D. F.; Arendt, A. A.; Wikstrom Jones, K.; Wolken, G. J.; Setiawan, L.


    Modeling seasonal snow pack in alpine environments includes a multiplicity of challenges caused by a lack of spatially extensive and temporally continuous observational datasets. This is partially due to the difficulty of collecting measurements in harsh, remote environments where extreme gradients in topography exist, accompanied by large model domains and inclement weather. Engaging snow enthusiasts, snow professionals, and community members to participate in the process of data collection may address some of these challenges. In this study, we use SnowModel to estimate seasonal snow water equivalence (SWE) in the Thompson Pass region of Alaska while incorporating snow depth measurements collected by citizen scientists. We develop a modeling approach to assimilate hundreds of snow depth measurements from participants in the Community Snow Observations (CSO) project ( The CSO project includes a mobile application where participants record and submit geo-located snow depth measurements while working and recreating in the study area. These snow depth measurements are randomly located within the model grid at irregular time intervals over the span of four months in the 2017 water year. This snow depth observation dataset is converted into a SWE dataset by employing an empirically-based, bulk density and SWE estimation method. We then assimilate this data using SnowAssim, a sub-model within SnowModel, to constrain the SWE output by the observed data. Multiple model runs are designed to represent an array of output scenarios during the assimilation process. An effort to present model output uncertainties is included, as well as quantification of the pre- and post-assimilation divergence in modeled SWE. Early results reveal pre-assimilation SWE estimations are consistently greater than the post-assimilation estimations, and the magnitude of divergence increases throughout the snow pack evolution period. This research has implications beyond the

  20. Arctic Pacific water dynamics from model intercomparison and observations (United States)

    Aksenov, Yevgeny; Karcher, Michael; Proshutinsky, Andrey; Gerdes, Ruediger; Bacon, Sheldon; Nurser, George; Coward, Andrew; Golubeva, Elena; Kauker, Frank; Nguyen, An; Platov, Gennady; Wadley, Martin; Watanabe, Eiji


    Pacific Water imports heat and fresh water from the northern Pacific in the Arctic Ocean, impacting upper ocean mixing and dynamics, as well as Arctic sea ice. Pathways and the circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean are not well known due to the lack of observations. This study uses an ensemble of the sea ice-ocean models integrated with passive tracer released in the Bering Strait to simulate Pacific water spread. We investigate different branches and modes of Pacific water and analyse changes in the water mass distribution through the Arctic Ocean due to changes in the wind and ocean potential vorticity. We focus on seasonal cycle and inter-decadal variations. The first results have been published recently (Aksenov et al., 2015) as a part of Forum for Arctic Ocean Modeling and Observational Synthesis (FAMOS) project. In the present study we extend the examination further and discuss the role of the Pacific water variability in the recent changes in the Arctic heat and fresh water storage. We present insights in the projected future changes to Pacific water dynamics. Reference Aksenov, Y., et al. (2015), Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JC011299.

  1. Model and observed seismicity represented in a two dimensional space

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Caputo


    Full Text Available In recent years theoretical seismology lias introduced
    some formulae relating the magnitude and the seismic moment of earthquakes
    to the size of the fault and the stress drop which generated the
    In the present paper we introduce a model for the statistics of the
    earthquakes based on these formulae. The model gives formulae which
    show internal consistency and are also confirmed by observations.
    For intermediate magnitudes the formulae reproduce also the trend
    of linearity of the statistics of magnitude and moment observed in all the
    seismic regions of the world. This linear trend changes into a curve with
    increasing slope for large magnitudes and moment.
    When a catalogue of the magnitudes and/or the seismic moment of
    the earthquakes of a seismic region is available, the model allows to estimate
    the maximum magnitude possible in the region.

  2. Observational Tests of Magnetospheric Accretion Models in Young Stars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johns–Krull Christopher M.


    Full Text Available Magnetically controlled accretion of disk material onto the surface of Classical T Tauri stars is the dominant paradigm in our understanding of how these young stars interact with their surrounding disks. These stars provide a powerful test of magnetically controlled accretion models since all of the relevant parameters, including the magnetic field strength and geometry, are in principle measureable. Both the strength and the field geometry are key for understanding how these stars interact with their disks. This talk will focus on recent advances in magnetic field measurements on a large number of T Tauri stars, as well as very recent studies of the accretion rates onto a sample of young stars in NGC 2264 with known rotation periods. We discuss how these observations provide critical tests of magnetospheric accretion models which predict a rotational equilibrium is reached. We find good support for the model predictions once the complex geometry of the stellar magnetic field is taken into account. We will also explore how the observations of the accretion properties of the 2264 cluster stars can be used to test emerging ideas on how magnetic fields on young stars are generated and organized as a function of their internal structure (i.e. the presence of a radiative core. We do not find support for the hypothesis that large changes in the magentic field geometry occur when a radiative core appears in these young stars.

  3. Collision and Break-off : Numerical models and surface observables (United States)

    Bottrill, Andrew; van Hunen, Jeroen; Allen, Mark


    The process of continental collision and slab break-off has been explored by many authors using a number of different numerical models and approaches (Andrews and Billen, 2009; Gerya et al., 2004; van Hunen and Allen, 2011). One of the challenges of using numerical models to explore collision and break-off is relating model predictions to real observables from current collision zones. Part of the reason for this is that collision zones by their nature destroy a lot of potentially useful surface evidence of deep dynamics. One observable that offers the possibility for recording mantle dynamics at collision zones is topography. Here we present topography predictions from numerical models and show how these can be related to actual topography changes recoded in the sedimentary record. Both 2D and 3D numerical simulation of the closure of a small oceanic basin are presented (Bottrill et al., 2012; van Hunen and Allen, 2011). Topography is calculated from the normal stress at the surface applied to an elastic beam, to give a more realist prediction of topography by accounting for the expected elasticity of the lithosphere. Predicted model topography showed a number of interesting features on the overriding plate. The first is the formation of a basin post collision at around 300km from the suture. Our models also showed uplift postdating collision between the suture and this basin, caused by subduction of buoyant material. Once break-off has occurred we found that this uplift moved further into the overriding plate due to redistribution of stresses from the subducted plate. With our 3D numerical models we simulate a collision that propagates laterally along a subduction system. These models show that a basin forms, similar to that found in our 2D models, which propagates along the system at the same rate as collision. The apparent link between collision and basin formation leads to the investigation into the stress state in the overriding lithosphere. Preliminary

  4. Initializing a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model with Radiosonde Observations (United States)

    Berri, Guillermo J.; Bertossa, Germán


    A mesoscale boundary-layer model is used to simulate low-level regional wind fields over the La Plata River of South America, a region characterized by a strong daily cycle of land-river surface-temperature contrast and low-level circulations of sea-land breeze type. The initial and boundary conditions are defined from a limited number of local observations and the upper boundary condition is taken from the only radiosonde observations available in the region. The study considers 14 different upper boundary conditions defined from the radiosonde data at standard levels, significant levels, level of the inversion base and interpolated levels at fixed heights, all of them within the first 1500 m. The period of analysis is 1994-2008 during which eight daily observations from 13 weather stations of the region are used to validate the 24-h surface-wind forecast. The model errors are defined as the root-mean-square of relative error in wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed per wind sector. Wind-direction errors are greater than wind-speed errors and show significant dispersion among the different upper boundary conditions, not present in wind speed, revealing a sensitivity to the initialization method. The wind-direction errors show a well-defined daily cycle, not evident in wind speed, with the minimum at noon and the maximum at dusk, but no systematic deterioration with time. The errors grow with the height of the upper boundary condition level, in particular wind direction, and double the errors obtained when the upper boundary condition is defined from the lower levels. The conclusion is that defining the model upper boundary condition from radiosonde data closer to the ground minimizes the low-level wind-field errors throughout the region.

  5. Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS (United States)

    Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.


    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

  6. Testing the influence of vertical, pre-existing joints on normal faulting using analogue and 3D discrete element models (DEM) (United States)

    Kettermann, Michael; von Hagke, Christoph; Virgo, Simon; Urai, Janos L.


    Brittle rocks are often affected by different generations of fractures that influence each other. We study pre-existing vertical joints followed by a faulting event. Understanding the effect of these interactions on fracture/fault geometries as well as the development of dilatancy and the formation of cavities as potential fluid pathways is crucial for reservoir quality prediction and production. Our approach combines scaled analogue and numerical modeling. Using cohesive hemihydrate powder allows us to create open fractures prior to faulting. The physical models are reproduced using the ESyS-Particle discrete element Modeling Software (DEM), and different parameters are investigated. Analogue models were carried out in a manually driven deformation box (30x28x20 cm) with a 60° dipping pre-defined basement fault and 4.5 cm of displacement. To produce open joints prior to faulting, sheets of paper were mounted in the box to a depth of 5 cm at a spacing of 2.5 cm. Powder was then sieved into the box, embedding the paper almost entirely (column height of 19 cm), and the paper was removed. We tested the influence of different angles between the strike of the basement fault and the joint set (0°, 4°, 8°, 12°, 16°, 20°, and 25°). During deformation we captured structural information by time-lapse photography that allows particle imaging velocimetry analyses (PIV) to detect localized deformation at every increment of displacement. Post-mortem photogrammetry preserves the final 3-dimensional structure of the fault zone. We observe that no faults or fractures occur parallel to basement-fault strike. Secondary fractures are mostly oriented normal to primary joints. At the final stage of the experiments we analyzed semi-quantitatively the number of connected joints, number of secondary fractures, degree of segmentation (i.e. number of joints accommodating strain), damage zone width, and the map-view area fraction of open gaps. Whereas the area fraction does not change


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sokół, J. M.; Kubiak, M. A.; Bzowski, M.; Swaczyna, P., E-mail: [Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-716 Warsaw (Poland)


    We have developed a refined and optimized version of the Warsaw Test Particle Model of interstellar neutral gas in the heliosphere, specially tailored for analysis of IBEX-Lo observations. The former version of the model was used in the analysis of neutral He observed by IBEX that resulted in an unexpected conclusion that the interstellar neutral He flow vector was different than previously thought and that a new population of neutral He, dubbed the Warm Breeze, exists in the heliosphere. It was also used in the reanalysis of Ulysses observations that confirmed the original findings on the flow vector, but suggested a significantly higher temperature. The present version of the model has two strains targeted for different applications, based on an identical paradigm, but differing in the implementation and in the treatment of ionization losses. We present the model in detail and discuss numerous effects related to the measurement process that potentially modify the resulting flux of ISN He observed by IBEX, and identify those of them that should not be omitted in the simulations to avoid biasing the results. This paper is part of a coordinated series of papers presenting the current state of analysis of IBEX-Lo observations of ISN He. Details of the analysis method are presented by Swaczyna et al. and results of the analysis are presented by Bzowski et al.

  8. Analysis of the Sheltered Instruction Observation Protocol Model on Academic Performance of English Language Learners (United States)

    Ingram, Sandra W.

    This quantitative comparative descriptive study involved analyzing archival data from end-of-course (EOC) test scores in biology of English language learners (ELLs) taught or not taught using the sheltered instruction observation protocol (SIOP) model. The study includes descriptions and explanations of the benefits of the SIOP model to ELLs, especially in content area subjects such as biology. Researchers have shown that ELLs in high school lag behind their peers in academic achievement in content area subjects. Much of the research on the SIOP model took place in elementary and middle school, and more research was necessary at the high school level. This study involved analyzing student records from archival data to describe and explain if the SIOP model had an effect on the EOC test scores of ELLs taught or not taught using it. The sample consisted of 527 Hispanic students (283 females and 244 males) from Grades 9-12. An independent sample t-test determined if a significant difference existed in the mean EOC test scores of ELLs taught using the SIOP model as opposed to ELLs not taught using the SIOP model. The results indicated that a significant difference existed between EOC test scores of ELLs taught using the SIOP model and ELLs not taught using the SIOP model (p = .02). A regression analysis indicated a significant difference existed in the academic performance of ELLs taught using the SIOP model in high school science, controlling for free and reduced-price lunch (p = .001) in predicting passing scores on the EOC test in biology at the school level. The data analyzed for free and reduced-price lunch together with SIOP data indicated that both together were not significant (p = .175) for predicting passing scores on the EOC test in high school biology. Future researchers should repeat the study with student-level data as opposed to school-level data, and data should span at least three years.

  9. LEIR impedance model and coherent beam instability observations

    CERN Document Server

    Biancacci, N; Migliorati, M; Rijoff, T L


    The LEIR machine is the first synchrotron in the ion ac-celeration chain at CERN and it is responsible to deliverhigh intensity ion beams to the LHC. Following the recentprogress in the understanding of the intensity limitations,detailed studies of the machine impedance started. In thiswork we describe the present LEIR impedance model, detail-ing the contribution to the total longitudinal and transverseimpedance of several machine elements. We then comparethe machine tune shift versus intensity predictions againstmeasurements at injection energy and summarize the co-herent instability observations in the absence of transversefeedback.

  10. S-AMP for non-linear observation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cakmak, Burak; Winther, Ole; Fleury, Bernard H.


    matrix has zero-mean iid Gaussian entries. Our derivation is based upon 1) deriving expectation-propagation-(EP)-like equations from the stationary-points equations of the Gibbs free energy under first- and second-moment constraints and 2) applying additive free convolution in free probability theory......Recently we presented the S-AMP approach, an extension of approximate message passing (AMP), to be able to handle general invariant matrix ensembles. In this contribution we extend S-AMP to non-linear observation models. We obtain generalized AMP (GAMP) as the special case when the measurement...

  11. Report on Integration of Existing Grid Models for N-R HES Interaction Focused on Balancing Authorities for Sub-hour Penalties and Opportunities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McJunkin, Timothy [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Epiney, Aaron [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rabiti, Cristian [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)


    This report provides a summary of the effort in the Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System (N-R HES) project on the level 4 milestone to consider integration of existing grid models into the factors for optimization on shorter time intervals than the existing electric grid models with the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Modelica [1] optimizations and economic analysis that are the focus of the project to date.

  12. Modelling 1-minute directional observations of the global irradiance. (United States)

    Thejll, Peter; Pagh Nielsen, Kristian; Andersen, Elsa; Furbo, Simon


    Direct and diffuse irradiances from the sky has been collected at 1-minute intervals for about a year from the experimental station at the Technical University of Denmark for the IEA project "Solar Resource Assessment and Forecasting". These data were gathered by pyrheliometers tracking the Sun, as well as with apertured pyranometers gathering 1/8th and 1/16th of the light from the sky in 45 degree azimuthal ranges pointed around the compass. The data are gathered in order to develop detailed models of the potentially available solar energy and its variations at high temporal resolution in order to gain a more detailed understanding of the solar resource. This is important for a better understanding of the sub-grid scale cloud variation that cannot be resolved with climate and weather models. It is also important for optimizing the operation of active solar energy systems such as photovoltaic plants and thermal solar collector arrays, and for passive solar energy and lighting to buildings. We present regression-based modelling of the observed data, and focus, here, on the statistical properties of the model fits. Using models based on the one hand on what is found in the literature and on physical expectations, and on the other hand on purely statistical models, we find solutions that can explain up to 90% of the variance in global radiation. The models leaning on physical insights include terms for the direct solar radiation, a term for the circum-solar radiation, a diffuse term and a term for the horizon brightening/darkening. The purely statistical model is found using data- and formula-validation approaches picking model expressions from a general catalogue of possible formulae. The method allows nesting of expressions, and the results found are dependent on and heavily constrained by the cross-validation carried out on statistically independent testing and training data-sets. Slightly better fits -- in terms of variance explained -- is found using the purely

  13. Dispersion Relations for Electroweak Observables in Composite Higgs Models

    CERN Document Server

    Contino, Roberto


    We derive dispersion relations for the electroweak oblique observables measured at LEP in the context of $SO(5)/SO(4)$ composite Higgs models. It is shown how these relations can be used and must be modified when modeling the spectral functions through a low-energy effective description of the strong dynamics. The dispersion relation for the parameter $\\epsilon_3$ is then used to estimate the contribution from spin-1 resonances at the 1-loop level. Finally, it is shown that the sign of the contribution to the $\\hat S$ parameter from the lowest-lying spin-1 states is not necessarily positive definite, but depends on the energy scale at which the asymptotic behavior of current correlators is attained.

  14. Polar cap patches observed during the magnetic storm of November 2003: observations and modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Valladares


    Full Text Available We present multi-instrumented measurements and multi-technique analysis of polar cap patches observed early during the recovery phase of the major magnetic storm of 20 November 2003 to investigate the origin of the polar cap patches. During this event, the Qaanaaq imager observed elongated polar cap patches, some of which containing variable brightness; the Qaanaaq digisonde detected abrupt NmF2 fluctuations; the Sondrestrom incoherent scatter radar (ISR measured patches placed close to but poleward of the auroral oval–polar cap boundary; and the DMSP-F13 satellite intersected topside density enhancements, corroborating the presence of the patches seen by the imager, the digisonde, and the Sondrestrom ISR. A 2-D cross-correlation analysis was applied to series of two consecutive red-line images, indicating that the magnitude and direction of the patch velocities were in good agreement with the SuperDARN convection patterns. We applied a back-tracing analysis to the patch locations and found that most of the patches seen between 20:41 and 21:29 UT were likely transiting the throat region near 19:41 UT. Inspection of the SuperDARN velocities at this time indicates spatial and temporal collocation of a gap region between patches and large (1.7 km s−1 line-of-sight velocities. The variable airglow brightness of the patches observed between 20:33 and 20:43 UT was investigated using the numerical Global Theoretical Ionospheric Model (GTIM driven by the SuperDARN convection patterns and a variable upward/downward neutral wind. Our numerical results indicate that variations in the airglow intensity up to 265 R can be produced by a constant 70 m s−1 downward vertical wind.

  15. Observation and modelling of fog at Cold Lake, Alberta, Canada (United States)

    Wu, Di; Boudala, Faisal; Weng, Wensong; Taylor, Peter A.; Gultepe, Ismail; Isaac, George A.


    observational data indicates that the surface-based in situ measurements agree well with aviation weather observation METAR reports and are comparable with model simulations. Both the HRDPS model and microwave radiometry data indicate low level fog and cloud formation but the depths and intensities differ considerably depending on environmental conditions. Causes for this are under investigation with the high resolution 1-D boundary-layer model.

  16. Using observations to evaluate biosphere-atmosphere interactions in models (United States)

    Green, Julia; Konings, Alexandra G.; Alemohammad, Seyed H.; Gentine, Pierre


    Biosphere-atmosphere interactions influence the hydrologic cycle by altering climate and weather patterns (Charney, 1975; Koster et al., 2006; Seneviratne et al., 2006), contributing up to 30% of precipitation and radiation variability in certain regions (Green et al., 2017). They have been shown to contribute to the persistence of drought in Europe (Seneviratne et al., 2006), as well as to increase rainfall in the Amazon (Spracklen et al., 2012). Thus, a true representation of these feedbacks in Earth System Models (ESMs) is crucial for accurate forecasting and planning. However, it has been difficult to validate the performance of ESMs since often-times surface and atmospheric flux data are scarce and/or difficult to observe. In this study, we use the results of a new global observational study (using remotely sensed solar-induced fluorescence to represent the biosphere flux) (Green et al., 2017) to determine how well a suite of 13 ESMs capture biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. We perform a Conditional Multivariate Granger Causality analysis in the frequency domain with radiation, precipitation and temperature as atmospheric inputs and GPP as the biospheric input. Performing the analysis in the frequency domain allows for separation of feedbacks at different time-scales (subseasonal, seasonal or interannual). Our findings can be used to determine whether there is agreement between models, as well as, to pinpoint regions or time-scales of model bias or inaccuracy, which will provide insight on potential improvement. We demonstrate that in addition to the well-known problem of convective parameterization over land in models, the main issue in representing feedbacks between the land and the atmosphere is due to the misrepresentation of water stress. These results provide a direct quantitative assessment of feedbacks in models and how to improve them. References: Charney, J.G. Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological

  17. General Description of Fission Observables: GEF Model Code (United States)

    Schmidt, K.-H.; Jurado, B.; Amouroux, C.; Schmitt, C.


    The GEF ("GEneral description of Fission observables") model code is documented. It describes the observables for spontaneous fission, neutron-induced fission and, more generally, for fission of a compound nucleus from any other entrance channel, with given excitation energy and angular momentum. The GEF model is applicable for a wide range of isotopes from Z = 80 to Z = 112 and beyond, up to excitation energies of about 100 MeV. The results of the GEF model are compared with fission barriers, fission probabilities, fission-fragment mass- and nuclide distributions, isomeric ratios, total kinetic energies, and prompt-neutron and prompt-gamma yields and energy spectra from neutron-induced and spontaneous fission. Derived properties of delayed neutrons and decay heat are also considered. The GEF model is based on a general approach to nuclear fission that explains a great part of the complex appearance of fission observables on the basis of fundamental laws of physics and general properties of microscopic systems and mathematical objects. The topographic theorem is used to estimate the fission-barrier heights from theoretical macroscopic saddle-point and ground-state masses and experimental ground-state masses. Motivated by the theoretically predicted early localisation of nucleonic wave functions in a necked-in shape, the properties of the relevant fragment shells are extracted. These are used to determine the depths and the widths of the fission valleys corresponding to the different fission channels and to describe the fission-fragment distributions and deformations at scission by a statistical approach. A modified composite nuclear-level-density formula is proposed. It respects some features in the superfluid regime that are in accordance with new experimental findings and with theoretical expectations. These are a constant-temperature behaviour that is consistent with a considerably increased heat capacity and an increased pairing condensation energy that is

  18. Parental modelling of eating behaviours: observational validation of the Parental Modelling of Eating Behaviours scale (PARM). (United States)

    Palfreyman, Zoe; Haycraft, Emma; Meyer, Caroline


    Parents are important role models for their children's eating behaviours. This study aimed to further validate the recently developed Parental Modelling of Eating Behaviours Scale (PARM) by examining the relationships between maternal self-reports on the PARM with the modelling practices exhibited by these mothers during three family mealtime observations. Relationships between observed maternal modelling and maternal reports of children's eating behaviours were also explored. Seventeen mothers with children aged between 2 and 6 years were video recorded at home on three separate occasions whilst eating a meal with their child. Mothers also completed the PARM, the Children's Eating Behaviour Questionnaire and provided demographic information about themselves and their child. Findings provided validation for all three PARM subscales, which were positively associated with their observed counterparts on the observational coding scheme (PARM-O). The results also indicate that habituation to observations did not change the feeding behaviours displayed by mothers. In addition, observed maternal modelling was significantly related to children's food responsiveness (i.e., their interest in and desire for foods), enjoyment of food, and food fussiness. This study makes three important contributions to the literature. It provides construct validation for the PARM measure and provides further observational support for maternal modelling being related to lower levels of food fussiness and higher levels of food enjoyment in their children. These findings also suggest that maternal feeding behaviours remain consistent across repeated observations of family mealtimes, providing validation for previous research which has used single observations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Land-Surface-Atmosphere Coupling in Observations and Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan K Betts


    Full Text Available The diurnal cycle and the daily mean at the land-surface result from the coupling of many physical processes. The framework of this review is largely conceptual; looking for relationships and information in the coupling of processes in models and observations. Starting from the surface energy balance, the role of the surface and cloud albedos in the shortwave and longwave fluxes is discussed. A long-wave radiative scaling of the diurnal temperature range and the night-time boundary layer is summarized. Several aspects of the local surface energy partition are presented: the role of soilwater availability and clouds; vector methods for understanding mixed layer evolution, and the coupling between surface and boundary layer that determines the lifting condensation level. Moving to larger scales, evaporation-precipitation feedback in models is discussed; and the coupling of column water vapor, clouds and precipitation to vertical motion and moisture convergence over the Amazon. The final topic is a comparison of the ratio of surface shortwave cloud forcing to the diabatic precipitation forcing of the atmosphere in ERA-40 with observations.

  20. CORAL: model for no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL). (United States)

    Toropov, Andrey A; Toropova, Alla P; Pizzo, Fabiola; Lombardo, Anna; Gadaleta, Domenico; Benfenati, Emilio


    The in vivo repeated dose toxicity (RDT) test is intended to provide information on the possible risk caused by repeated exposure to a substance over a limited period of time. The measure of the RDT is the no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) that is the dose at which no effects are observed, i.e., this endpoint indicates the safety level for a substance. The need to replace in vivo tests, as required by some European Regulations (registration, evaluation authorization and restriction of chemicals) is leading to the searching for reliable alternative methods such as quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). Considering the complexity of the RDT endpoint, for which data quality is limited and depends anyway on the study design, the development of QSAR for this endpoint is an attractive task. Starting from a dataset of 140 organic compounds with NOAEL values related to oral short term toxicity in rats, we developed a QSAR model based on optimal descriptors calculated with simplified molecular input-line entry systems and the graph of atomic orbitals by the Monte Carlo method, using CORAL software. Three different splits into the training, calibration, and validation sets are studied. The mechanistic interpretation of these models in terms of molecular fragment with positive or negative contributions to the endpoint is discussed. The probabilistic definition for the domain of applicability is suggested.

  1. Bivariate spatial analysis of temperature and precipitation from general circulation models and observation proxies

    KAUST Repository

    Philbin, R.


    This study validates the near-surface temperature and precipitation output from decadal runs of eight atmospheric ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) against observational proxy data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis temperatures and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation data. We model the joint distribution of these two fields with a parsimonious bivariate Matérn spatial covariance model, accounting for the two fields\\' spatial cross-correlation as well as their own smoothnesses. We fit output from each AOGCM (30-year seasonal averages from 1981 to 2010) to a statistical model on each of 21 land regions. Both variance and smoothness values agree for both fields over all latitude bands except southern mid-latitudes. Our results imply that temperature fields have smaller smoothness coefficients than precipitation fields, while both have decreasing smoothness coefficients with increasing latitude. Models predict fields with smaller smoothness coefficients than observational proxy data for the tropics. The estimated spatial cross-correlations of these two fields, however, are quite different for most GCMs in mid-latitudes. Model correlation estimates agree well with those for observational proxy data for Australia, at high northern latitudes across North America, Europe and Asia, as well as across the Sahara, India, and Southeast Asia, but elsewhere, little consistent agreement exists.

  2. Modeling Earth Albedo Currents on Sun Sensors for Improved Vector Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bhanderi, Dan


    Earth albedo influences vector measurements of the solar line of sight vector, due to the induced current on in the photo voltaics of Sun sensors. Although advanced digital Sun sensors exist, these are typically expensive and may not be suited for satellites in the nano or pico-class. Previously...... for modeling Sun sensor output by incorporating the Earth albedo model is presented. This model utilizes the directional information of in the Earth albedo model, which is achieved by Earth surface partitioning. This allows accurate simulation of the Sun sensor output and the results are consistent with Ørsted...... and useful for space environment simulations, and may be utilized to improve attitude estimation algorithms applying Sun sensor vector observations....

  3. Glider observations and modeling of sediment transport in Hurricane Sandy (United States)

    Miles, Travis; Seroka, Greg; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott


    Regional sediment resuspension and transport are examined as Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) in October 2012. A Teledyne-Webb Slocum glider, equipped with a Nortek Aquadopp current profiler, was deployed on the continental shelf ahead of the storm, and is used to validate sediment transport routines coupled to the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The glider was deployed on 25 October, 5 days before Sandy made landfall in southern New Jersey (NJ) and flew along the 40 m isobath south of the Hudson Shelf Valley. We used optical and acoustic backscatter to compare with two modeled size classes along the glider track, 0.1 and 0.4 mm sand, respectively. Observations and modeling revealed full water column resuspension for both size classes for over 24 h during peak waves and currents, with transport oriented along-shelf toward the southwest. Regional model predictions showed over 3 cm of sediment eroded on the northern portion of the NJ shelf where waves and currents were the highest. As the storm passed and winds reversed from onshore to offshore on the southern portion of the domain waves and subsequently orbital velocities necessary for resuspension were reduced leading to over 3 cm of deposition across the entire shelf, just north of Delaware Bay. This study highlights the utility of gliders as a new asset in support of the development and verification of regional sediment resuspension and transport models, particularly during large tropical and extratropical cyclones when in situ data sets are not readily available.

  4. Fracture initiation associated with chemical degradation: observation and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byoungho Choi; Zhenwen Zhou; Chudnovsky, Alexander [Illinois Univ., Dept. of Civil and Materials Engineering (M/C 246), Chicago, IL (United States); Stivala, Salvatore S. [Stevens Inst. of Technology, Dept. of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, Hoboken, NJ (United States); Sehanobish, Kalyan; Bosnyak, Clive P. [Dow Chemical Co., Freeport, TX (United States)


    The fracture initiation in engineering thermoplastics resulting from chemical degradation is usually observed in the form of a microcrack network within a surface layer of degraded polymer exposed to a combined action of mechanical stresses and chemically aggressive environment. Degradation of polymers is usually manifested in a reduction of molecular weight, increase of crystallinity in semi crystalline polymers, increase of material density, a subtle increase in yield strength, and a dramatic reduction in toughness. An increase in material density, i.e., shrinkage of the degraded layer is constrained by adjacent unchanged material results in a buildup of tensile stress within the degraded layer and compressive stress in the adjacent unchanged material due to increasing incompatibility between the two. These stresses are an addition to preexisting manufacturing and service stresses. At a certain level of degradation, a combination of toughness reduction and increase of tensile stress result in fracture initiation. A quantitative model of the described above processes is presented in these work. For specificity, the internally pressurized plastic pipes that transport a fluid containing a chemically aggressive (oxidizing) agent is used as the model of fracture initiation. Experimental observations of material density and toughness dependence on degradation reported elsewhere are employed in the model. An equation for determination of a critical level of degradation corresponding to the offset of fracture is constructed. The critical level of degradation for fracture initiation depends on the rates of toughness deterioration and build-up of the degradation related stresses as well as on the manufacturing and service stresses. A method for evaluation of the time interval prior to fracture initiation is also formulated. (Author)

  5. Variation of plasmapause location during magnetic storms: observations and modeling (United States)

    Liu, W.


    This paper investigates the dynamic evolutions of the plasmapause during magnetic storms based on in situ observations and empirical modeling results. Superposed epoch analysis is performed on the plasmapause location identified from THEMIS in situ measurements during the 61 magnetic storms from 2009 to 2013. The evolution of the plasmapause is generally consistent with the theory of erosion/refilling of the plasmapause. From multi-spacecraft in situ measurements, we are able to directly calculate the plasmapause radial velocity, Vpp. It is found that the radial velocity is on average earthward during main phase and turns outward during recovery phase. The empirical plasmapause model by Liu et al. [2015] is further utilized to reproduce the plasmapause location during these 61 storms to reveal the details of the evolution, such as the local time dependence. It is shown that the expansion of the plasmapause starts firstly on the midnight sector at t0+1hr, and subsequently on the dawnside at t0+4hr, dayside at t0+8hr and duskside at t0+11hr, where t0 corresponds to the time of Dst minimum. The averaged Vpp is quantified based on modeling results as up to 0.17 RE/hr earthward in the main phase and 0.08 RE/hr outward in the recovery phase. The knowledge of the dynamic evolution of plasmapause provided in this paper is valuable to understand the dynamics of the inner magnetosphere during magnetic storms.

  6. Assimilation of Gridded Terrestrial Water Storage Observations from GRACE into a Land Surface Model (United States)

    Girotto, Manuela; De Lannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Rodell, Matthew


    Observations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission have a coarse resolution in time (monthly) and space (roughly 150,000 km(sup 2) at midlatitudes) and vertically integrate all water storage components over land, including soil moisture and groundwater. Data assimilation can be used to horizontally downscale and vertically partition GRACE-TWS observations. This work proposes a variant of existing ensemble-based GRACE-TWS data assimilation schemes. The new algorithm differs in how the analysis increments are computed and applied. Existing schemes correlate the uncertainty in the modeled monthly TWS estimates with errors in the soil moisture profile state variables at a single instant in the month and then apply the increment either at the end of the month or gradually throughout the month. The proposed new scheme first computes increments for each day of the month and then applies the average of those increments at the beginning of the month. The new scheme therefore better reflects submonthly variations in TWS errors. The new and existing schemes are investigated here using gridded GRACE-TWS observations. The assimilation results are validated at the monthly time scale, using in situ measurements of groundwater depth and soil moisture across the U.S. The new assimilation scheme yields improved (although not in a statistically significant sense) skill metrics for groundwater compared to the open-loop (no assimilation) simulations and compared to the existing assimilation schemes. A smaller impact is seen for surface and root-zone soil moisture, which have a shorter memory and receive smaller increments from TWS assimilation than groundwater. These results motivate future efforts to combine GRACE-TWS observations with observations that are more sensitive to surface soil moisture, such as L-band brightness temperature observations from Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) or Soil Moisture Active

  7. The NASA Severe Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling (NASA STORM) Project (United States)

    Schultz, Christopher J.; Gatlin, Patrick N.; Lang, Timothy J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi; Case, Jonathan L.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Bailey, Jeffrey; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Jedlovec, Gary J.


    The NASA Severe Storm Thunderstorm Observations and Regional Modeling(NASA STORM) project enhanced NASA’s severe weather research capabilities, building upon existing Earth Science expertise at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). During this project, MSFC extended NASA’s ground-based lightning detection capacity to include a readily deployable lightning mapping array (LMA). NASA STORM also enabled NASA’s Short-term Prediction and Research Transition (SPoRT) to add convection allowing ensemble modeling to its portfolio of regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) capabilities. As a part of NASA STORM, MSFC developed new open-source capabilities for analyzing and displaying weather radar observations integrated from both research and operational networks. These accomplishments enabled by NASA STORM are a step towards enhancing NASA’s capabilities for studying severe weather and positions them for any future NASA related severe storm field campaigns.

  8. Equation-free analysis of two-component system signalling model reveals the emergence of co-existing phenotypes in the absence of multistationarity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca B Hoyle

    Full Text Available Phenotypic differences of genetically identical cells under the same environmental conditions have been attributed to the inherent stochasticity of biochemical processes. Various mechanisms have been suggested, including the existence of alternative steady states in regulatory networks that are reached by means of stochastic fluctuations, long transient excursions from a stable state to an unstable excited state, and the switching on and off of a reaction network according to the availability of a constituent chemical species. Here we analyse a detailed stochastic kinetic model of two-component system signalling in bacteria, and show that alternative phenotypes emerge in the absence of these features. We perform a bifurcation analysis of deterministic reaction rate equations derived from the model, and find that they cannot reproduce the whole range of qualitative responses to external signals demonstrated by direct stochastic simulations. In particular, the mixed mode, where stochastic switching and a graded response are seen simultaneously, is absent. However, probabilistic and equation-free analyses of the stochastic model that calculate stationary states for the mean of an ensemble of stochastic trajectories reveal that slow transcription of either response regulator or histidine kinase leads to the coexistence of an approximate basal solution and a graded response that combine to produce the mixed mode, thus establishing its essential stochastic nature. The same techniques also show that stochasticity results in the observation of an all-or-none bistable response over a much wider range of external signals than would be expected on deterministic grounds. Thus we demonstrate the application of numerical equation-free methods to a detailed biochemical reaction network model, and show that it can provide new insight into the role of stochasticity in the emergence of phenotypic diversity.

  9. Capacitance Online Estimation Based on Adaptive Model Observer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cen Zhaohui


    Full Text Available As a basic component in electrical and electronic devices, capacitors are very popular in electrical circuits. Conventional capacitors such as electrotype capacitors are easy to degradation, aging and fatigue due to long‐time running and outer damages such as mechanical and electrical stresses. In this paper, a novel online capacitance measurement/estimation approach is proposed. Firstly, an Adaptive Model Observer (AMO is designed based on the capacitor's circuit equations. Secondly, the AMO’s stability and convergence are analysed and discussed. Finally, Capacitors with different capacitance and different initial voltages in a buck converter topology are tested and validated. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of our proposed approach.

  10. Venus Aerosol Properties from Modelling and Akatsuki IR2 Observations (United States)

    McGouldrick, K.


    I am creating computer simulations of the clouds of Venus. In these simulations, I make changes to the properties of the aerosols that affect their ability to form, grow, evaporate, or combine with other particles. I then use the results of these models to predict how bright or dark Venus might appear when viewed at infrared wavelengths. By comparing this calculated brightness with the infrared observations made by the IR2 infrared camera on the Akatsuki spacecraft (currently orbiting Venus since its arrival in December 2015, built by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)), I hope to explain the causes for the changes that are seen to occur in the clouds via these and other images.

  11. A new theory of plant-microbe nutrient competition resolves inconsistencies between observations and model predictions. (United States)

    Zhu, Qing; Riley, William J; Tang, Jinyun


    Terrestrial plants assimilate anthropogenic CO 2 through photosynthesis and synthesizing new tissues. However, sustaining these processes requires plants to compete with microbes for soil nutrients, which therefore calls for an appropriate understanding and modeling of nutrient competition mechanisms in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we survey existing plant-microbe competition theories and their implementations in ESMs. We found no consensus regarding the representation of nutrient competition and that observational and theoretical support for current implementations are weak. To reconcile this situation, we applied the Equilibrium Chemistry Approximation (ECA) theory to plant-microbe nitrogen competition in a detailed grassland 15 N tracer study and found that competition theories in current ESMs fail to capture observed patterns and the ECA prediction simplifies the complex nature of nutrient competition and quantitatively matches the 15 N observations. Since plant carbon dynamics are strongly modulated by soil nutrient acquisition, we conclude that (1) predicted nutrient limitation effects on terrestrial carbon accumulation by existing ESMs may be biased and (2) our ECA-based approach may improve predictions by mechanistically representing plant-microbe nutrient competition. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  12. Modeling Exoplanetary Atmospheres using BART, TEA, and Drift-RHD; Theoretical studies and Observational Implications (United States)

    Dobbs-Dixon, Ian

    The explosion in the number of exoplanets detected to date has revealed a surprising diversity. When attempting to model this diversity, it is crucial to account for the uncertainties resulting from our limited knowledge of chemical, dynamical, and cloud formation processes in their atmospheres. Combining a retrieval technique with theorydriven models is a particularly promising way to address these processes and constrain a physically plausible atmospheric structure. In particular, a detailed micro-physical treatment of clouds and the longitudinal and latitudinal assessments of temperature and chemical profiles, have yet to be addressed in the field. Our team members are experts in radiative-hydrodynamic modeling (Dr. Ian DobbsDixon), cloud kinetics (Dr. Christiana Helling), retrievals and thermo-equilibrium chemistry (Dr. Jasmina Blecic), and observational diagnostics and predictions (Dr. Thomas Greene). The key goals of this proposal are to extend our understanding of the 3D atmospheric structure of gas-giant exoplanets by coupling state-of-the-art selfconsistent models together with a retrieval framework to 1) address cloud kinetics in retrievals, 2) assess 3D temperature and chemical structures in retrievals, 3) model a suite of well-observed planets within the framework of our models, and 4) make observational predictions for current and future NASA missions. To address these goals we have developed a number of tools: Drift-RHD, TEA, BART, and OBS. Drift-RHD solves both the 3D radiative-hydrodynamic equations and a time dependent kinetic cloud model. TEA, Thermochemical Equilibrium Abundances, calculates abundances of chemical species present in the atmosphere. BART, a Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer code, is a statistical retrieval framework to explore the parameter space of atmospheric chemical abundances and thermal profiles. OBS is a suite of tools developed to simulate observations. Though these tools exist and have been utilized independently in

  13. Demonstrating the value of community-based ('citizen science') observations for catchment modelling and characterisation (United States)

    Starkey, Eleanor; Parkin, Geoff; Birkinshaw, Stephen; Large, Andy; Quinn, Paul; Gibson, Ceri


    Despite there being well-established meteorological and hydrometric monitoring networks in the UK, many smaller catchments remain ungauged. This leaves a challenge for characterisation, modelling, forecasting and management activities. Here we demonstrate the value of community-based ('citizen science') observations for modelling and understanding catchment response as a contribution to catchment science. The scheme implemented within the 42 km2 Haltwhistle Burn catchment, a tributary of the River Tyne in northeast England, has harvested and used quantitative and qualitative observations from the public in a novel way to effectively capture spatial and temporal river response. Community-based rainfall, river level and flood observations have been successfully collected and quality-checked, and used to build and run a physically-based, spatially-distributed catchment model, SHETRAN. Model performance using different combinations of observations is tested against traditionally-derived hydrographs. Our results show how the local network of community-based observations alongside traditional sources of hydro-information supports characterisation of catchment response more accurately than using traditional observations alone over both spatial and temporal scales. We demonstrate that these community-derived datasets are most valuable during local flash flood events, particularly towards peak discharge. This information is often missed or poorly represented by ground-based gauges, or significantly underestimated by rainfall radar, as this study clearly demonstrates. While community-based observations are less valuable during prolonged and widespread floods, or over longer hydrological periods of interest, they can still ground-truth existing traditional sources of catchment data to increase confidence during characterisation and management activities. Involvement of the public in data collection activities also encourages wider community engagement, and provides important

  14. Modelling of particular phenomena observed in PANDA with Gothic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bandurski, Th.; Putz, F.; Andreani, M.; Analytis, M.


    PANDA is a large scale facility for investigating the long-term decay heat removal from the containment of a next generation 'passive' Advanced Light Water Reactor (ALWR). The first test series was aimed at the investigation of the long-term LOCA response of the Passive Containment Cooling System (PCCS) for the General Electric (GE) Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (SBWR). Recently, the facility is used in the framework of two European projects for investigating the performance of four passive cooling systems, i.e. the Building Condenser (BC) designed by Siemens for the SWR-1000 long-term containment cooling, the Passive Containment Cooling System for the European Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR), the Containment Plate Condenser (CPC) and the Isolation Condenser (IC) for cooling of a BWR core. The PANDA tests have the dual objectives of improving confidence in the performance of the passive heat removal mechanisms underlying the design of the tested safety systems and extending the data base available for containment analysis code qualification. Among others, the containment analysis code Gothic was chosen for the analysis of particular phenomena observed during the PANDA tests. Ibis paper presents selected safety relevant phenomena observed in the PANDA tests and identified for the analyses and possible approaches for their modeling with Gothic. (author)

  15. Confronting the outflow-regulated cluster formation model with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Fumitaka [National Astronomical Observatory, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Li, Zhi-Yun, E-mail:, E-mail: [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400325, Charlottesville, VA 22904 (United States)


    Protostellar outflows have been shown theoretically to be capable of maintaining supersonic turbulence in cluster-forming clumps and keeping the star formation rate per free-fall time as low as a few percent. We aim to test two basic predictions of this outflow-regulated cluster formation model, namely, (1) the clump should be close to virial equilibrium and (2) the turbulence dissipation rate should be balanced by the outflow momentum injection rate, using recent outflow surveys toward eight nearby cluster-forming clumps (B59, L1551, L1641N, Serpens Main Cloud, Serpens South, ρ Oph, IC 348, and NGC 1333). We find, for almost all sources, that the clumps are close to virial equilibrium and the outflow momentum injection rate exceeds the turbulence momentum dissipation rate. In addition, the outflow kinetic energy is significantly smaller than the clump gravitational energy for intermediate and massive clumps with M {sub cl} ≳ a few × 10{sup 2} M {sub ☉}, suggesting that the outflow feedback is not enough to disperse the clump as a whole. The number of observed protostars also indicates that the star formation rate per free-fall time is as small as a few percent for all clumps. These observationally based results strengthen the case for outflow-regulated cluster formation.

  16. Modeling the Ionosphere with GPS and Rotation Measure Observations (United States)

    Malins, J. B.; Taylor, G. B.; White, S. M.; Dowell, J.


    Advances in digital processing have created new tools for looking at and examining the ionosphere. We have combined data from dual frequency GPSs, digital ionosondes and observations from The Long Wavelength Array (LWA), a 256 dipole low frequency radio telescope situated in central New Mexico in order to examine ionospheric profiles. By studying polarized pulsars, the LWA is able to very accurately determine the Faraday rotation caused by the ionosphere. By combining this data with the international geomagnetic reference field, the LWA can evaluate ionospheric profiles and how well they predict the actual Faraday rotation. Dual frequency GPS measurements of total electron content, as well as measurements from digisonde data were used to model the ionosphere, and to predict the Faraday rotation to with in 0.1 rad/m2. Additionally, it was discovered that the predicted topside profile of the digisonde data did not accurate predict faraday rotation measurements, suggesting a need to reexamine the methods for creating the topside predicted profile. I will discuss the methods used to measure rotation measure and ionosphere profiles as well as discuss possible corrections to the topside model.

  17. Phenotypic T cell exhaustion in a murine model of bacterial infection in the setting of pre-existing malignancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rohit Mittal

    Full Text Available While much of cancer immunology research has focused on anti-tumor immunity both systemically and within the tumor microenvironment, little is known about the impact of pre-existing malignancy on pathogen-specific immune responses. Here, we sought to characterize the antigen-specific CD8+ T cell response following a bacterial infection in the setting of pre-existing pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Mice with established subcutaneous pancreatic adenocarcinomas were infected with Listeria monocytogenes, and antigen-specific CD8+ T cell responses were compared to those in control mice without cancer. While the kinetics and magnitude of antigen-specific CD8+ T cell expansion and accumulation was comparable between the cancer and non-cancer groups, bacterial antigen-specific CD8+ T cells and total CD4+ and CD8+ T cells in cancer mice exhibited increased expression of the coinhibitory receptors BTLA, PD-1, and 2B4. Furthermore, increased inhibitory receptor expression was associated with reduced IFN-γ and increased IL-2 production by bacterial antigen-specific CD8+ T cells in the cancer group. Taken together, these data suggest that cancer's immune suppressive effects are not limited to the tumor microenvironment, but that pre-existing malignancy induces phenotypic exhaustion in T cells by increasing expression of coinhibitory receptors and may impair pathogen-specific CD8+ T cell functionality and differentiation.

  18. Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rossiter, John R.; Percy, Larry


    product or service or to achieve a higher price that consumers are willing to pay than would obtain in the absence of advertising. What has changed in recent years is the notable worsening of the academic-practitioner divide, which has seen academic advertising researchers pursuing increasingly...... as requiring a new model of how advertising communicates and persuades, which, as the authors' textbooks explain, is sheer nonsense and contrary to the goal of integrated marketing. We provide in this article a translation of practitioners' jargon into more scientifically acceptable terminology as well...

  19. Odessa Tsunami of 27 June 2014: Observations and Numerical Modelling (United States)

    Šepić, Jadranka; Rabinovich, Alexander B.; Sytov, Victor N.


    On 27 June, a 1-2-m high wave struck the beaches of Odessa, the third largest Ukrainian city, and the neighbouring port-town Illichevsk (northwestern Black Sea). Throughout the day, prominent seiche oscillations were observed in several other ports of the Black Sea. Tsunamigenic synoptic conditions were found over the Black Sea, stretching from Romania in the west to the Crimean Peninsula in the east. Intense air pressure disturbances and convective thunderstorm clouds were associated with these conditions; right at the time of the event, a 1.5-hPa air pressure jump was recorded at Odessa and a few hours earlier in Romania. We have utilized a barotropic ocean numerical model to test two hypotheses: (1) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating directly over Odessa ("Experiment 1"); (2) a tsunami-like wave was generated by an air pressure disturbance propagating offshore, approximately 200 km to the south of Odessa, and along the shelf break ("Experiment 2"). Both experiments decisively confirm the meteorological origin of the tsunami-like waves on the coast of Odessa and imply that intensified long ocean waves in this region were generated via the Proudman resonance mechanism while propagating over the northwestern Black Sea shelf. The "Odessa tsunami" of 27 June 2014 was identified as a "beach meteotsunami", similar to events regularly observed on the beaches of Florida, USA, but different from the "harbour meteotsunamis", which occurred 1-3 days earlier in Ciutadella (Baleares, Spain), Mazara del Vallo (Sicily, Italy) and Vela Luka (Croatia) in the Mediterranean Sea, despite that they were associated with the same atmospheric system moving over the Mediterranean/Black Sea region on 23-27 June 2014.

  20. Ionosphere TEC disturbances before strong earthquakes: observations, physics, modeling (Invited) (United States)

    Namgaladze, A. A.


    The phenomenon of the pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances is discussed. A number of typical TEC (Total Electron Content) relative disturbances is presented for several recent strong earthquakes occurred in different ionospheric conditions. Stable typical TEC deviations from quiet background state are observed few days before the strong seismic events in the vicinity of the earthquake epicenter and treated as ionospheric earthquake precursors. They don't move away from the source in contrast to the disturbances related with geomagnetic activity. Sunlit ionosphere approach leads to reduction of the disturbances up to their full disappearance, and effects regenerate at night. The TEC disturbances often observed in the magnetically conjugated areas as well. At low latitudes they accompany with equatorial anomaly modifications. The hypothesis about the electromagnetic channel of the pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances' creation is discussed. The lithosphere and ionosphere are coupled by the vertical external electric currents as a result of ionization of the near-Earth air layer and vertical transport of the charged particles through the atmosphere over the fault. The external electric current densities exceeding the regular fair-weather electric currents by several orders are required to produce stable long-living seismogenic electric fields such as observed by onboard measurements of the 'Intercosmos-Bulgaria 1300' satellite over the seismic active zones. The numerical calculation results using the Upper Atmosphere Model demonstrate the ability of the external electric currents with the densities of 10-8-10-9 A/m2 to produce such electric fields. The sumulations reproduce the basic features of typical pre-earthquake TEC relative disturbances. It is shown that the plasma ExB drift under the action of the seismogenic electric field leads to the changes of the F2 region electron number density and TEC. The upward drift velocity component enhances NmF2 and TEC and

  1. Modeling of the cloud and radiation processes observed during SHEBA (United States)

    Du, Ping; Girard, Eric; Bertram, Allan K.; Shupe, Matthew D.


    Six microphysics schemes implemented in the climate version of the Environment Canada's Global Multiscale Environmental (GEM) model are used to simulate the cloud and radiation processes observed during Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field experiment. The simplest microphysics scheme (SUN) has one prognostic variable: the total cloud water content. The second microphysics scheme (MLO) has 12 prognostic variables. The four other microphysics schemes are modified versions of MLO. A new parameterization for heterogeneous ice nucleation based on laboratory experiments is included in these versions of MLO. One is for uncoated ice nuclei (ML-NAC) and another is for sulfuric acid coated ice nuclei (ML-AC). ML-AC and ML-NAC have been developed to distinguish non-polluted and polluted air masses, the latter being common over the Arctic during winter and spring. A sensitivity study, in which the dust concentration is reduced by a factor 5, is also performed to assess the sensitivity of the results to the dust concentration in ML-AC-test and ML-NAC-test. Results show that SUN, ML-AC and ML-AC-test reproduce quite well the downward longwave radiation and cloud radiative forcing during the cold season. The good results obtained with SUN are due to compensating errors. It overestimates cloud fraction and underestimates cloud liquid water path during winter. ML-AC and ML-AC-test reproduces quite well all these variables and their relationships. MLO, ML-NAC and ML-NAC-test underestimate the cloud liquid water path and cloud fraction during the cold season, which leads to an underestimation of the downward longwave radiation at surface. During summer, all versions of the model underestimate the downward shortwave radiation at surface. ML-AC and ML-NAC overestimate the total cloud water during the warm season, however, they reproduce relatively well the relationships between cloud radiative forcing and cloud microstructure, which is not the case for the most simple

  2. Atmospheric Nitrogen Deposition to the Oceans: Observation- and Model-Based Estimates (United States)

    Baker, Alex


    The reactive nitrogen (Nr) burden of the atmosphere has been increased by a factor of 3-4 by anthropogenic activity since the Industrial Revolution. This has led to large increases in the deposition of nitrate and ammonium to the surface waters of the open ocean, particularly downwind of major human population centres, such as those in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia. In oligotrophic waters, this deposition has the potential to significantly impact marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. Global-scale understanding of N deposition to the oceans is reliant on our ability to produce effective models of reactive nitrogen emission, atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition (including deposition to the land surface). Over land, N deposition models can be assessed using comparisons to regional monitoring networks of precipitation chemistry (notably those located in North America, Europe and Southeast Asia). No similar datasets exist which would allow observation - model comparisons of wet deposition for the open oceans, because long-term wet deposition records are available for only a handful of remote island sites and rain collection over the open ocean itself is logistically very difficult. In this work we attempt instead to use ~2800 observations of aerosol nitrate and ammonium concentrations, acquired from sampling aboard ships in the period 1995 - 2012, to assess the performance of modelled N deposition fields over the remote ocean. This database is non-uniformly distributed in time and space. We selected three ocean regions (the eastern tropical North Atlantic, the northern Indian Ocean and northwest Pacific) where we considered the density and distribution of observational data is sufficient to provide effective comparison to the model ensemble. Our presentation will focus on the eastern tropical North Atlantic region, which has the best data coverage of the three. We will compare dry deposition fluxes calculated from the observed nitrate

  3. Electroweak Precision Observables in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model

    CERN Document Server

    Heinemeyer, S; Weiglein, Georg


    The current status of electroweak precision observables in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) is reviewed. We focus in particular on the $W$ boson mass, M_W, the effective leptonic weak mixing angle, sin^2 theta_eff, the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, (g-2)_\\mu, and the lightest CP-even MSSM Higgs boson mass, m_h. We summarize the current experimental situation and the status of the theoretical evaluations. An estimate of the current theoretical uncertainties from unknown higher-order corrections and from the experimental errors of the input parameters is given. We discuss future prospects for both the experimental accuracies and the precision of the theoretical predictions. Confronting the precision data with the theory predictions within the unconstrained MSSM and within specific SUSY-breaking scenarios, we analyse how well the data are described by the theory. The mSUGRA scenario with cosmological constraints yields a very good fit to the data, showing a clear preference for a relativ...

  4. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise. (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C; Mauget, Steven A


    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20(th) century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal.

  5. Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise (United States)

    Brown, Patrick T.; Li, Wenhong; Cordero, Eugene C.; Mauget, Steven A.


    The comparison of observed global mean surface air temperature (GMT) change to the mean change simulated by climate models has received much public and scientific attention. For a given global warming signal produced by a climate model ensemble, there exists an envelope of GMT values representing the range of possible unforced states of the climate system (the Envelope of Unforced Noise; EUN). Typically, the EUN is derived from climate models themselves, but climate models might not accurately simulate the correct characteristics of unforced GMT variability. Here, we simulate a new, empirical, EUN that is based on instrumental and reconstructed surface temperature records. We compare the forced GMT signal produced by climate models to observations while noting the range of GMT values provided by the empirical EUN. We find that the empirical EUN is wide enough so that the interdecadal variability in the rate of global warming over the 20th century does not necessarily require corresponding variability in the rate-of-increase of the forced signal. The empirical EUN also indicates that the reduced GMT warming over the past decade or so is still consistent with a middle emission scenario's forced signal, but is likely inconsistent with the steepest emission scenario's forced signal. PMID:25898351

  6. Scanning compound surfaces with no existing CAD model by using laser probe of a coordinate measuring machine (United States)

    Che, Chenggang


    In recent years, the manufacturing of parts with compound surfaces relies more and more on computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) because of the ever increasing complexity of surface features. For a standard CIM cycle, it starts from a computer aided design (CAD) model which was designed previously be experienced mechanical drafters. The CAD model is then interpreted as numerical controlled (NC) machining codes according to which the part is finally manufactured, this is usually referred to as the normal manufacturing process in Figure 1. However, in many cases, a CAD model of a part is not always readily available to begin the CIM cycle. For instance, in automobile industry, the development of new car models takes a long time from concept to model because of the tedious manual digitization process. Also, in some other cases, the mechanical design of a product may need frequent modification, such as ship hulls, aeroplane fuselages, wings and turbine blades, etc. This was traditionally done by copymilling of a master model. In a computer aided manufacturing (CAM) environment, a mathematical model or representation of a part is required to begin a CIM cycle. The automation of the whole manufacturing system requires a rapid part modeling tool. Fortunately, this becomes possible with the advent of recent development in optical sensing devices and many non-contact sensing techniques. Before a part model is established, surface digitization should first be implemented so that enough measurement points can be fitted later, and this is the most important step of the reverse engineering process as in Figure 1. And also, it is obvious that the efficiency and accuracy of the surface modeling relies heavily on the efficiency and accuracy of the surface digitization. The present paper aims at achieving surface digitization accurately and rapidly with a coordinate measurement machine (CMM) and an inexpensive laser range-finding probe. By making full use of the control system of

  7. Model-observer similarity, error modeling and social learning in rhesus macaques.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabetta Monfardini

    Full Text Available Monkeys readily learn to discriminate between rewarded and unrewarded items or actions by observing their conspecifics. However, they do not systematically learn from humans. Understanding what makes human-to-monkey transmission of knowledge work or fail could help identify mediators and moderators of social learning that operate regardless of language or culture, and transcend inter-species differences. Do monkeys fail to learn when human models show a behavior too dissimilar from the animals' own, or when they show a faultless performance devoid of error? To address this question, six rhesus macaques trained to find which object within a pair concealed a food reward were successively tested with three models: a familiar conspecific, a 'stimulus-enhancing' human actively drawing the animal's attention to one object of the pair without actually performing the task, and a 'monkey-like' human performing the task in the same way as the monkey model did. Reward was manipulated to ensure that all models showed equal proportions of errors and successes. The 'monkey-like' human model improved the animals' subsequent object discrimination learning as much as a conspecific did, whereas the 'stimulus-enhancing' human model tended on the contrary to retard learning. Modeling errors rather than successes optimized learning from the monkey and 'monkey-like' models, while exacerbating the adverse effect of the 'stimulus-enhancing' model. These findings identify error modeling as a moderator of social learning in monkeys that amplifies the models' influence, whether beneficial or detrimental. By contrast, model-observer similarity in behavior emerged as a mediator of social learning, that is, a prerequisite for a model to work in the first place. The latter finding suggests that, as preverbal infants, macaques need to perceive the model as 'like-me' and that, once this condition is fulfilled, any agent can become an effective model.

  8. Determination of the plasmapause boundary using ground magnetometer field line resonances, satellite observations, and modeling (United States)

    Zesta, E.; Boudouridis, A.; Jorgensen, A. M.; Yizengaw, E.; Chi, P. J.; Moldwin, M.; Carranza, T.; Mann, I. R.; Johnston, W. R.; Wilson, G. R.


    The plasmapause boundary layer (PBL) separates the cold and dense plasmaspheric plasma from the more tenuous and hot plasma sheet plasma and organizes the spatial distribution of ULF and VLF waves that can contribute to acceleration or loss processes of radiation belt particles through wave-particle interactions. The PBL has been traditionally determined by in situ observations and can be given by empirical models. Recent work has shown that a mid-latitude chain of well-spaced ground magnetometers can also determine the PBL boundary location. Spectral properties, like the cross-phase reversal between two stations closely aligned in latitude, have been shown to indicate the presence of a sharp PBL. We show here an example of such a PBL identification during the moderate storm of Nov 9-12, 2006. We combine observations from the SAMBA (South American Meridional B-field Array), MEASURE (Magnetometers along the Eastern Atlantic Seaboard for Undergraduate Research and Education), McMAC (Mid-continent Magnetoseismic Chain), and CARISMA ground magnetometer chains covering L values from L=2 to L=5 to statistically determine how commonly the PBL is determined from ground magnetometers. In our initial study we examine observations from June to December, 2006. We compare our PBL determinations with the determination of the same boundary from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites, based on the H+ density observations, which have been shown to accurately identify the PBL from a low-Earth orbiting satellite. We also compare our PBL identification with those determined from a global GPS TEC map and GPS TEC tomography technique used by a chain of ground GPS receivers. Finally, we compare our observations with results from the Dynamic Global Core Plasma Model (DGCPM), as well as existing empirical models based on in situ observations.

  9. Rotating shallow water modeling of planetary,astrophysical and plasma vortical structures (plasma transport across a magnetic field,model of the jupiter's GRS, prediction of existence of giant vortices in spiral galaxies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. V. Nezlin


    Full Text Available Three kinds of results have been described in this paper. Firstly, an experimental study of the Rossby vortex meridional drift on the rotating shallow water has been carried out. Owing to the stringent physical analogy between the Rossby vortices and drift vortices in the magnetized plasma, the results obtained have allowed one to make a conclusion that the transport rate of the plasma, trapped by the drift vortices, across the magnetic field is equivalent to the “gyro-Bohm” diffusion coefficient. Secondly, a model of big vortices of the type of the Great Red Spot of Jupiter, dominating in the atmospheres of the outer planets, has been produced. Thirdly, the rotating shallow water modeling has been carried out of the hydrodynamical generation mechanism of spiral structures in galaxies. Trailing spiral waves of various azimuthal modes, generated by a shear flow between fast rotating “nucleus” and slow rotating periphery, were produced. The spirals are similar to those existing in the real galaxies. The hydrodynamical concept of the spiral structure formation in galaxies has been substantiated. Strong anticyclonic vortices between the spiral arms of the structures under study have been discovered for the first time. The existence of analogous vortices in real galaxies has been predicted. (This prediction has been reliably confirmed recently in special astronomical observations, carried out on the basis of the mentioned laboratory modeling and the prediction made – see the paper by A. Fridman et al. (Astrophysics and Space Science, 1997, 252, 115.

  10. Polarimetry of Solar System Objects: Observations vs. Models (United States)

    Yanamandra-Fisher, P. A.


    results of main belt comets, asteroids with ring system, lunar studies, planned exploration of planetary satellites that may harbour sub-surface oceans, there is increasing need to include polarimetric (linear, circular and differential) as an integral observing mode of instruments and facilities. For laboratory measurements, there is a need to identify simulants that mimic the polarimetric behaviour of solar system small bodies and measure their polarimetric behavior as function of various physical process they are subject to and have undergone radiation changes of their surfaces. Therefore, inclusion of polarimetric remote sensing and development of spectropolarimeters for groundbased facilities and instruments on space missions is needed, with similar maturation of vector radiative transfer models and related laboratory measurements.

  11. Towards unified performance measures for evaluating nuclear safeguard systems: mathematical foundations and formal comparison of existing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corynen, G.C.


    An important step in the analysis of large-scale systems is the development of economical and meaningful measures of system performance. In the literature on analysis of nuclear safeguard systems, many performance measures have been advanced, but their interrelationships and their relevance to overall system objectives have not received attention commensurate with the effort spent in developing detailed safeguard models. The work reported here is an attempt to improve the development and evaluation of performance measures for nuclear safeguard systems. This work falls into three main areas. First, we develop a new framework which provides an initial basis for defining and structuring performance measures. To demonstrate that this framework allows a clear understanding of the purposes of nuclear safeguard systems, we employ it to state various safeguard questions clearly and concisely. The framework reflects the rough subsystem structure of safeguard systems - the detection and response subsystems - and formally accommodates various safeguard models. We especially emphasize two of these models which are under development at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, the structured assessment approach (SAA) and the systems vulnerability assessment method (SVAM). Second, we examine some performance measures presently used in the nuclear safeguards area and in reliability theory in general. Some of these we accept and modify to obtain system performance measures that are an additive combination of subsystem performance measures, a very convenient form indeed. Others we reject as impractical and meaningless. Finally, we determine some common features between the SAA and SVAM models by formally comparing these models in our framework

  12. Towards unified performance measures for evaluating nuclear safeguard systems: mathematical foundations and formal comparison of existing models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corynen, G.C.


    An important step in the analysis of large-scale systems is the development of economical and meaningful measures of system performance. In the literature on analysis of nuclear safeguard systems, many performance measures have been advanced, but their interrelationships and their relevance to overall system objectives have not received attention commensurate with the effort spent in developing detailed safeguard models. The work reported here is an attempt to improve the development and evaluation of performance measures for nuclear safeguard systems. This work falls into three main areas. First, we develop a new framework which provides an initial basis for defining and structuring performance measures. To demonstrate that this framework allows a clear understanding of the purposes of nuclear safeguard systems, we employ it to state various safeguard questions clearly and concisely. The framework reflects the rough subsystem structure of safeguard systems - the detection and response subsystems - and formally accommodates various safeguard models. We especially emphasize two of these models which are under development at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, the structured assessment approach (SAA) and the systems vulnerability assessment method (SVAM). Second, we examine some performance measures presently used in the nuclear safeguards area and in reliability theory in general. Some of these we accept and modify to obtain system performance measures that are an additive combination of subsystem performance measures, a very convenient form indeed. Others we reject as impractical and meaningless. Finally, we determine some common features between the SAA and SVAM models by formally comparing these models in our framework.

  13. A Multi-model Study on Warm Precipitation Biases in Global Models Compared to Satellite Observations (United States)

    Jing, X.; Suzuki, K.; Guo, H.; Goto, D.; Ogura, T.; Koshiro, T.; Mulmenstadt, J.


    The cloud-to-precipitation transition process in warm clouds simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs), including both traditional climate models and a global cloud-resolving model, is evaluated against A-Train satellites observations. The models and satellite observations are compared in the form of the statistics obtained from combined analysis of multiple satellite observables that probe signatures of the cloud-to-precipitation transition process. One common problem identified among these models is the too frequent occurrence of warm precipitation. The precipitation is found to form when the cloud particle size and the liquid water path (LWP) are both much smaller than those in observations. The too efficient formation of precipitation is found to be compensated for by errors of cloud microphysical properties, such as underestimated cloud particle size and LWP, to an extent that varies among the models. However, this does not completely cancel the precipitation formation bias. Robust errors are also found in the evolution of cloud microphysical properties in precipitation process in some GCMs, implying unrealistic interaction between precipitation and cloud water. Nevertheless, auspicious information is found for future improvement of warm precipitation representations: the adoption of more realistic autoconversion scheme or subgrid variability scheme is shown to improve the triggering of precipitation and evolution of cloud microphysical properties.

  14. In the absence of physical practice, observation and imagery do not result in updating of internal models for aiming. (United States)

    Ong, Nicole T; Larssen, Beverley C; Hodges, Nicola J


    The presence of after-effects in adaptation tasks implies that an existing internal model has been updated. Previously, we showed that although observers adapted to a visuomotor perturbation, they did not show after-effects. In this experiment, we tested 2 further observer groups and an actor group. Observers were now actively engaged in watching (encouraged through imagery and movement estimation), with one group physically practising for 25% of the trials (mixed). Participants estimated the hand movements that produced various cursor trajectories and/or their own hand movement from a preceding trial. These trials also allowed us to assess the development of explicit knowledge as a function of the three practice conditions. The pure observation group did not show after-effects, whereas the actor and mixed groups did. The pure observation group improved their ability to estimate hand movement of the video model. Although the actor and mixed groups improved in actual reaching accuracy, they did not improve in explicit estimation. The mixed group was more accurate in reaching during adaptation and showed larger after-effects than the actors. We suggest that observation encourages an explicit mode of learning, enabling performance benefits without corresponding changes to an internal model of the mapping between output and sensory input. However, some physical practice interspersed with observation can change the manner with which learning is achieved, encouraging implicit learning and the updating of an existing internal model.

  15. MHD-model for low-frequency waves in a tokamak with toroidal plasma rotation and problem of existence of global geodesic acoustic modes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lakhin, V. P.; Sorokina, E. A., E-mail:, E-mail:; Ilgisonis, V. I. [National Research Centre Kurchatov Institute (Russian Federation); Konovaltseva, L. V. [Peoples’ Friendship University of Russia (Russian Federation)


    A set of reduced linear equations for the description of low-frequency perturbations in toroidally rotating plasma in axisymmetric tokamak is derived in the framework of ideal magnetohydrodynamics. The model suitable for the study of global geodesic acoustic modes (GGAMs) is designed. An example of the use of the developed model for derivation of the integral conditions for GGAM existence and of the corresponding dispersion relation is presented. The paper is dedicated to the memory of academician V.D. Shafranov.

  16. Existing air sparging model and literature review for the development of an air sparging optimization decision tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)



    The objectives of this Report are two-fold: (1) to provide overviews of the state-of-the-art and state-of-the-practice with respect to air sparging technology, air sparging models and related or augmentation technologies (e.g., soil vapor extraction); and (2) to provide the basis for the development of the conceptual Decision Tool. The Project Team conducted an exhaustive review of available literature. The complete listing of the documents, numbering several hundred and reviewed as a part of this task, is included in Appendix A. Even with the large amount of material written regarding the development and application of air sparging, there still are significant gaps in the technical community`s understanding of the remediation technology. The results of the literature review are provided in Section 2. In Section 3, an overview of seventeen conceptual, theoretical, mathematical and empirical models is presented. Detailed descriptions of each of the models reviewed is provided in Appendix B. Included in Appendix D is a copy of the questionnaire used to compile information about the models. The remaining sections of the document reflect the analysis and synthesis of the information gleaned during the literature and model reviews. The results of these efforts provide the basis for development of the decision tree and conceptual decision tool for determining applicability and optimization of air sparging. The preliminary decision tree and accompanying information provided in Section 6 describe a three-tiered approach for determining air sparging applicability: comparison with established scenarios; calculation of conceptual design parameters; and the conducting of pilot-scale studies to confirm applicability. The final two sections of this document provide listings of the key success factors which will be used for evaluating the utility of the Decision Tool and descriptions of potential applications for Decision Tool use.

  17. Theory and observations: Model simulations of the period 1955-1985 (United States)

    Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Eckman, R.; Lacis, A.; Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Prather, M.; Pyle, J.; Rodhe, H.; Stordal, Frode; Stolarski, R. S.; Turco, R. P.


    The main objective of the theoretical studies presented here is to apply models of stratospheric chemistry and transport in order to understand the processes that control stratospheric ozone and that are responsible for the observed variations. The model calculations are intended to simulate the observed behavior of atmospheric ozone over the past three decades (1955-1985), for which there exists a substantial record of both ground-based and, more recently, satellite measurements. Ozone concentrations in the atmosphere vary on different time scales and for several different causes. The models described here were designed to simulate the effect on ozone of changes in the concentration of such trace gases as CFC, CH4, N2O, and CO2. Changes from year to year in ultraviolet radiation associated with the solar cycle are also included in the models. A third source of variability explicitly considered is the sporadic introduction of large amounts of NO sub x into the stratosphere during atmospheric nuclear tests.

  18. Earth Observations, Models and Geo-Design in Support of SDG Implementation and Monitoring (United States)

    Plag, H. P.; Jules-Plag, S.


    Implementation and Monitoring of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires support from Earth observation and scientific communities. Applying a goal-based approach to determine the data needs to the Targets and Indicators associated with the SDGs demonstrates that integration of environmental with socio-economic and statistical data is required. Large data gaps exist for the built environment. A Geo-Design platform can provide the infrastructure and conceptual model for the data integration. The development of policies and actions to foster the implementation of SDGs in many cases requires research and the development of tools to answer "what if" questions. Here, agent-based models and model webs combined with a Geo-Design platform are promising avenues. This advanced combined infrastructure can also play a crucial role in the necessary capacity building. We will use the example of SDG 5 (Gender equality) to illustrate these approaches. SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities) is used to underline the cross-goal linkages and the joint benefits of Earth observations, data integration, and modeling tools for multiple SDGs.

  19. Defining the Transfer Functions of the PCAD Model in North Atlantic Right Whales (Eubalaena glacialis) - Retrospective Analyses of Existing Data (United States)


    Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2 health assessments), Peter Corkeron, National Marine Fisheries Service (statistics), Kathleen Hunt ( endocrinology ...each adult female right whale transitioning between three possible states – Pregnancy , Lactation and Resting. Only female whales with at least 20...whale (Eubalaena glacialis). General and Comparative Endocrinology 148:260-272. Kuhn, M. 2008. Building predictive models in R using the caret package

  20. Optimization and validation of an existing, surgical and robust dry eye rat model for the evaluation of therapeutic compounds. (United States)

    Joossen, Cedric; Lanckacker, Ellen; Zakaria, Nadia; Koppen, Carina; Joossens, Jurgen; Cools, Nathalie; De Meester, Ingrid; Lambeir, Anne-Marie; Delputte, Peter; Maes, Louis; Cos, Paul


    The aim of this research was to optimize and validate an animal model for dry eye, adopting clinically relevant evaluation parameters. Dry eye was induced in female Wistar rats by surgical removal of the exorbital lacrimal gland. The clinical manifestations of dry eye were evaluated by tear volume measurements, corneal fluorescein staining, cytokine measurements in tear fluid, MMP-9 mRNA expression and CD3(+) cell infiltration in the conjunctiva. The animal model was validated by treatment with Restasis(®) (4 weeks) and commercial dexamethasone eye drops (2 weeks). Removal of the exorbital lacrimal gland resulted in 50% decrease in tear volume and a gradual increase in corneal fluorescein staining. Elevated levels of TNF-α and IL-1α have been registered in tear fluid together with an increase in CD3(+) cells in the palpebral conjunctiva when compared to control animals. Additionally, an increase in MMP-9 mRNA expression was recorded in conjunctival tissue. Reference treatment with Restasis(®) and dexamethasone eye drops had a positive effect on all evaluation parameters, except on tear volume. This rat dry eye model was validated extensively and judged appropriate for the evaluation of novel compounds and therapeutic preparations for dry eye disease. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A diagnostic model to estimate winds and small-scale drag from Mars Observer PMIRR data (United States)

    Barnes, J. R.


    Theoretical and modeling studies indicate that small-scale drag due to breaking gravity waves is likely to be of considerable importance for the circulation in the middle atmospheric region (approximately 40-100 km altitude) on Mars. Recent earth-based spectroscopic observations have provided evidence for the existence of circulation features, in particular, a warm winter polar region, associated with gravity wave drag. Since the Mars Observer PMIRR experiment will obtain temperature profiles extending from the surface up to about 80 km altitude, it will be extensively sampling middle atmospheric regions in which gravity wave drag may play a dominant role. Estimating the drag then becomes crucial to the estimation of the atmospheric winds from the PMIRR-observed temperatures. An interative diagnostic model based upon one previously developed and tested with earth satellite temperature data will be applied to the PMIRR measurements to produce estimates of the small-scale zonal drag and three-dimensional wind fields in the Mars middle atmosphere. This model is based on the primitive equations, and can allow for time dependence (the time tendencies used may be based upon those computed in a Fast Fourier Mapping procedure). The small-scale zonal drag is estimated as the residual in the zonal momentum equation; the horizontal winds having first been estimated from the meridional momentum equation and the continuity equation. The scheme estimates the vertical motions from the thermodynamic equation, and thus needs estimates of the diabatic heating based upon the observed temperatures. The latter will be generated using a radiative model. It is hoped that the diagnostic scheme will be able to produce good estimates of the zonal gravity wave drag in the Mars middle atmosphere, estimates that can then be used in other diagnostic or assimilation efforts, as well as more theoretical studies.

  2. Tidal Movement of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier, Northeast Greenland: Observations and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reeh, Niels; Mayer, C.; Olesen, O. B.


    , 1997 and 1998. As part of this work, tidal-movement observations were carried out by simultaneous differential global positioning system (GPS) measurements at several locations distributed on the glacier surface. The GPS observations were performed continuously over several tidal cycles. At the same...

  3. Towards real-time assimilation of crowdsourced observations in hydrological modeling (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Verlaan, Martin; Alfonso, Leonardo; Norbiato, Daniele; Monego, Martina; Ferri, Michele; Solomatine, Dimitri


    The continued technological advances have stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that can be used by citizens to provide crowdsourced observations (CO) of different hydrological variables. An example of such low-cost sensors is a staff gauge connected to a QR code on which people can read the water level indication and send the measurement via a mobile phone application. The goal of this study is to assess the combined effect of the assimilation of CO coming from a distributed network of low-cost sensors, and the existing streamflow observations from physical sensors, on the performance of a semi-distributed hydrological model. The methodology is applied to the Bacchiglione catchment, North East of Italy, where an early warning system is used by the Alto Adriatico Water Authority to issue forecasted water level along the river network which cross important cities such as Vicenza and Padua. In this study, forecasted precipitation values are used as input in the hydrological model to estimate the simulated streamflow hydrograph used as boundary condition for the hydraulic model. Observed precipitation values are used to generate realistic synthetic streamflow values with various characteristics of arrival frequency and accuracy, to simulate CO coming at irregular time steps. These observations are assimilated into the semi-distributed model using a Kalman filter based method. The results of this study show that CO, asynchronous in time and with variable accuracy, can still improve flood prediction when integrated in hydrological models. When both physical and low-cost sensors are located at the same places, the assimilation of CO gives the same model improvement than the assimilation of physical observations only for high number of non-intermittent sensors. However, the integration of observations from low-cost sensors and single physical sensors can improve the flood prediction even when small a number of intermittent CO are available. This study is part of the

  4. Modelling dust polarization observations of molecular clouds through MHD simulations (United States)

    King, Patrick K.; Fissel, Laura M.; Chen, Che-Yu; Li, Zhi-Yun


    The BLASTPol observations of Vela C have provided the most detailed characterization of the polarization fraction p and dispersion in polarization angles S for a molecular cloud. We compare the observed distributions of p and S with those obtained in synthetic observations of simulations of molecular clouds, assuming homogeneous grain alignment. We find that the orientation of the mean magnetic field relative to the observer has a significant effect on the p and S distributions. These distributions for Vela C are most consistent with synthetic observations where the mean magnetic field is close to the line of sight. Our results point to apparent magnetic disorder in the Vela C molecular cloud, although it can be due to either an inclination effect (i.e. observing close to the mean field direction) or significant field tangling from strong turbulence/low magnetization. The joint correlations of p with column density and of S with column density for the synthetic observations generally agree poorly with the Vela C joint correlations, suggesting that understanding these correlations requires a more sophisticated treatment of grain alignment physics.

  5. Global observations and modeling of atmosphere–surface exchange of elemental mercury: a critical review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Zhu


    Full Text Available Reliable quantification of air–surface fluxes of elemental Hg vapor (Hg0 is crucial for understanding mercury (Hg global biogeochemical cycles. There have been extensive measurements and modeling efforts devoted to estimating the exchange fluxes between the atmosphere and various surfaces (e.g., soil, canopies, water, snow, etc. in the past three decades. However, large uncertainties remain due to the complexity of Hg0 bidirectional exchange, limitations of flux quantification techniques and challenges in model parameterization. In this study, we provide a critical review on the state of science in the atmosphere–surface exchange of Hg0. Specifically, the advancement of flux quantification techniques, mechanisms in driving the air–surface Hg exchange and modeling efforts are presented. Due to the semi-volatile nature of Hg0 and redox transformation of Hg in environmental media, Hg deposition and evasion are influenced by multiple environmental variables including seasonality, vegetative coverage and its life cycle, temperature, light, moisture, atmospheric turbulence and the presence of reactants (e.g., O3, radicals, etc.. However, the effects of these processes on flux have not been fundamentally and quantitatively determined, which limits the accuracy of flux modeling. We compile an up-to-date global observational flux database and discuss the implication of flux data on the global Hg budget. Mean Hg0 fluxes obtained by micrometeorological measurements do not appear to be significantly greater than the fluxes measured by dynamic flux chamber methods over unpolluted surfaces (p = 0.16, one-tailed, Mann–Whitney U test. The spatiotemporal coverage of existing Hg0 flux measurements is highly heterogeneous with large data gaps existing in multiple continents (Africa, South Asia, Middle East, South America and Australia. The magnitude of the evasion flux is strongly enhanced by human activities, particularly at contaminated sites. Hg0

  6. Ice formation and development in aged, wintertime cumulus over the UK : observations and modelling (United States)

    Crawford, I.; Bower, K. N.; Choularton, T. W.; Dearden, C.; Crosier, J.; Westbrook, C.; Capes, G.; Coe, H.; Connolly, P.; Dorsey, J. R.; Gallagher, M. W.; Williams, P.; Trembath, J.; Cui, Z.; Blyth, A.


    Precipitation Interactions Model) to investigate the likely origins of the ice phase in these slightly supercooled clouds and to assess the role played by the HM process in this and in controlling precipitation formation under these conditions. WRF results showed that while HM does act to increase the mass and number concentration of ice particles produced in the model simulations, in the absence of HM, the ice number concentration arising from primary ice nucleation alone (several L-1) was apparently sufficient to sustain precipitation although the distribution of the precipitation was changed. Thus in the WRF model the HM process was shown to be non-critical for the formation of precipitation in this particular case. However, this result is seen to be subject to an important caveat concerning the simulation of the cloud macrostructure. The model was unable to capture a sharp temperature inversion seen in the radiosonde profiles at 2 km, and consequently the cloud top temperature in the model was able to reach lower values than observed in-situ or obtained from satellite data. ACPIM simulations confirmed the HM process to be a very powerful mechanism for producing the observed high ice concentrations, provided that primary nucleation occured to initiate the ice formation, and large droplets were present which then fell collecting the primary ice particles to form instant rimer particles. However, the time to generate the observed peak ice concentrations was found to be dependant on the number of primary IN present (decreasing with increasing IN number). This became realistic (around 20 min) only when the temperature input to the existing IN parameterisation was 6 °C lower than observed at cloud top, highlighting the requirement to improve basic knowledge of the number and type of IN active at these high temperatures. In simulations where cloud droplet numbers were realistic the precipitation rate was found to be unaffected by HM, with warm rain processes dominating

  7. Electron acceleration in solar-flare magnetic traps: Model properties and their observational confirmations (United States)

    Gritsyk, P. A.; Somov, B. V.


    Using an analytical solution of the kinetic equation, we have investigated the model properties of the coronal and chromospheric hard X-ray sources in the limb flare of July 19, 2012. We calculated the emission spectrum at the flare loop footpoints in the thick-target approximation with a reverse current and showed it to be consistent with the observed one. The spectrum of the coronal source located above the flare loop was calculated in the thin-target approximation. In this case, the slope of the hard X-ray spectrum is reproduced very accurately, but the intensity of the coronal emission is lower than the observed one by several times. Previously, we showed that this contradiction is completely removed if the additional (relative to the primary acceleration in the reconnecting current layer) electron acceleration in the coronal magnetic trap that contracts in the transverse direction and decreases in length during the impulsive flare phase is taken into account. In this paper we study in detail this effect in the context of a more realistic flare scenario, where a whole ensemble of traps existed in the hard X-ray burst time, each of which was at different stages of its evolution: formation, collapse, destruction. Our results point not only to the existence of first-order Fermi acceleration and betatron electron heating in solar flares but also to their high efficiency. Highly accurate observations of a specific flare are used as an example to show that the previously predicted theoretical features of the model find convincing confirmations.

  8. Observations of secular changes in the kinematic model of SS433

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collins, G.W. II; Newsom, G.H.


    In this paper the authors present evidence that several of the defining parameters of the Kinematic Model for SS433 are not constant but rather exhibit long term systematic changes. Recent data confirm the existence of the previously reported decrease in the precessional period. The value for this period change, when combined with the observed change in the period of the synodic spectral variations, implies that the orbital period is not significantly changing on a time scale less than 1000 years. In addition they find mounting evidence for a statistically significant (4sigma) secular change in the cone angle theta at a rate of about -1.5 x 10 -3 deg/day. However, the surprisingly short time scales implied by the observed values of dP/dt and dtheta/dt when combined with estimates of the system age suggest the possible existence of detectable higher time derivatives. This view is supported by the most recent data which suggest a value for d 2 P/dt 2 approximately 10 -5 (days) -1 . It is possible to understand these secular changes in terms of the motions to be expected from an object exhibiting classical precession in response to an external torque. (Auth.)

  9. A three-layered model of nursing based on hospital observation data. (United States)

    Ohboshi, N; Tanaka, T; Kuwahara, N; Ozaku, H I; Naya, F; Kogure, K


    Our aim is to investigate causes of medical incidents and construct a knowledge base for preventing malpractice based on monitored data. To monitor nursing care, we developed an observing system of nursing activities with a ubiquitous sensor network and detecting errors in nursing care. This system is composed of a voice-recording device, mobile sensors and environmental setting type sensors. In cooperation with a hospital in western Japan, we have collected nursing activity data of nurses engaged at a combined ward, including ophthalmology, otolaryngology, and internal medicine for diabetes. After analyzing intravenous drip injection procedure (IVDI procedure) data, we introduce a three-layered model of nursing to understand nursing activities based on observed data. This model consists of three layers, 1) nursing care classification layer: Class, 2) nursing care step layer: Step, and 3) nursing care action layer: Action. This model is designed to take consistency with existing nursing care workflows. We implemented a detection system and succeeded in comprehending the workflow of IVDI procedure at the rate of over 95%. This system also can distinguish IVDI workflows performed in parallel by at least two or several nurses. We implemented a picture showing interface of IVDI workflows which can show each patient with a specific color and distinct nurses. Our system succeeded in verification of nursing care steps in IVDI procedure in ratios of more than 95%. Detection errors are due to the sensor system, so it is necessary to use or develop more precise devices.

  10. Model selection for marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data with missing observations and covariate measurement error. (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau


    Missing observations and covariate measurement error commonly arise in longitudinal data. However, existing methods for model selection in marginal regression analysis of longitudinal data fail to address the potential bias resulting from these issues. To tackle this problem, we propose a new model selection criterion, the Generalized Longitudinal Information Criterion, which is based on an approximately unbiased estimator for the expected quadratic error of a considered marginal model accounting for both data missingness and covariate measurement error. The simulation results reveal that the proposed method performs quite well in the presence of missing data and covariate measurement error. On the contrary, the naive procedures without taking care of such complexity in data may perform quite poorly. The proposed method is applied to data from the Taiwan Longitudinal Study on Aging to assess the relationship of depression with health and social status in the elderly, accommodating measurement error in the covariate as well as missing observations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail:

  11. Observations and modeling of deterministic properties of human ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We show that the properties of both models are different from those obtained for Type-I intermittency in the presence of additive noise. The two models help to explain some of the features seen in the intermittency in human heart rate variability. Keywords. Heart rate variability; intermittency; non-stationary dynamical systems.

  12. Observation-based correction of dynamical models using thermostats

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Myerscough, Keith W.; Frank, Jason; Leimkuhler, Benedict


    Models used in simulation may give accurate shortterm trajectories but distort long-Term (statistical) properties. In this work, we augment a given approximate model with a control law (a 'thermostat') that gently perturbs the dynamical system to target a thermodynamic state consistent with a set of

  13. Observations and modeling of deterministic properties of human ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    of two classes of models of Type-I intermittency: (a) the control parameter of the logistic map is changed dichotomously from a value within the intermittency range to just below the bifurcation point and back; (b) the control parameter is changed randomly within the same parameter range as in the model class (a). We show ...

  14. Development of a multi-scale data assimilation system for model-observation integration and climate model evaluation (Invited) (United States)

    Li, Z.; Liu, Y.; Lin, W.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Feng, S.; Fridlind, A. M.


    To improve our understanding and the representation of subgrid processes in climate models, an increasing number of ground-based long-term observing systems have been established. These systems focus on detailed measurements over a domain of a typical climate model grid size. An example is the US DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, which has been collecting data related to radiation, clouds and precipitation at three primary sites, the Southern Great Plains (SGP) of the USA, the North Slope of Alaska, and the Tropical West Pacific, for approximately 20 years. A well-established approach to use ARM-like measurements in climate model evaluation is jointly using the Single Column Model (SCM), Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs), and/or large eddy simulations (LESs). To enhance the effectiveness of this approach, we have developed multi-scale data assimilation (MS-DA) system on top of the NCEP Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) System and implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at the cloud resolving resolution (WRF-CRM) over the ARM Climate Research Facility's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. It is demonstrated that the MS-DA effectively assimilate the dense ARM in-situ observations and high-resolution satellite data, thus significantly reducing uncertainties in the WRF CRM simulation. We have used the WRF CRM simulation constrained by the MS-DA to derive multi-scale forcing that is used to drive SCMs, CRMs, and LESs, expand the large scale forcing parameters to hydrometeors that are not provided in the existing continuous forcing product, and characterize dependency of large-scale forcing on domain-size that represents SCM grid-sizes, sub-grid processes, and cloud-regimes.

  15. Modelling small groundwater systems - the role of targeted field investigations and observational data in reducing model uncertainty (United States)

    Abesser, Corinna; Hughes, Andrew; Boon, David


    the fit between predicted and observed heads and reduction in overall model uncertainty. The impact of availability of observational data on model calibration was tested as part of this study, confirming that equifinality remains an issue despite improved system characterisation and suggesting that uncertainty relating to the distribution of hydraulic conductivity (K) within the dune system must be further reduced. This study illustrates that groundwater modelling is not linear but should be an iterative process, especially in systems where large geological uncertainties exist. It should be carried out in conjunction with field studies, i.e. not as a postscript, but as ongoing interaction. This interaction is required throughout the investigation process and is key to heuristic learning and improved system understanding. Given that the role of modelling is to raise questions as well as answer them, this study demonstrates that this applies even in small systems that are thought to be well understood. This research is funded by the UK Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC). The work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This licence does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

  16. Understanding Transient Forcing with Plasma Instability Model, Ionospheric Propagation Model and GNSS Observations (United States)

    Deshpande, K.; Zettergren, M. D.; Datta-Barua, S.


    Fluctuations in the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals observed as amplitude and phase scintillations are produced by plasma density structures in the ionosphere. Phase scintillation events in particular occur due to structures at Fresnel scales, typically about 250 meters at ionospheric heights and GNSS frequency. Likely processes contributing to small-scale density structuring in auroral and polar regions include ionospheric gradient-drift instability (GDI) and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI), which result, generally, from magnetosphere-ionosphere interactions (e.g. reconnection) associated with cusp and auroral zone regions. Scintillation signals, ostensibly from either GDI or KHI, are frequently observed in the high latitude ionosphere and are potentially useful diagnostics of how energy from the transient forcing in the cusp or polar cap region cascades, via instabilities, to small scales. However, extracting quantitative details of instabilities leading to scintillation using GNSS data drastically benefits from both a model of the irregularities and a model of GNSS signal propagation through irregular media. This work uses a physics-based model of the generation of plasma density irregularities (GEMINI - Geospace Environment Model of Ion-Neutral Interactions) coupled to an ionospheric radio wave propagation model (SIGMA - Satellite-beacon Ionospheric-scintillation Global Model of the upper Atmosphere) to explore the cascade of density structures from medium to small (sub-kilometer) scales. Specifically, GEMINI-SIGMA is used to simulate expected scintillation from different instabilities during various stages of evolution to determine features of the scintillation that may be useful to studying ionospheric density structures. Furthermore we relate the instabilities producing GNSS scintillations to the transient space and time-dependent magnetospheric phenomena and further predict characteristics of scintillation in different geophysical

  17. Observations and models of the decimetric radio emission from Jupiter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pater, I. de.


    The high energy electron distribution as a function of energy, pitch angle and spatial coordinates in Jupiter's inner magnetosphere was derived from a comparison of radio data and model calculations of Jupiter's synchrotron radiation. (Auth.)

  18. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux...

  19. NACP Regional: Gridded 1-deg Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains standardized gridded observation data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations of carbon flux parameters that...

  20. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that various...

  1. NACP Regional: Original Observation Data and Biosphere and Inverse Model Outputs (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set contains the originally-submitted observation measurement data, terrestrial biosphere model output data, and inverse model simulations that...

  2. Observations and Numerical Modeling of the Jovian Ribbon (United States)

    Cosentino, R. G.; Simon, A.; Morales-Juberias, R.; Sayanagi, K. M.


    Multiple wavelength observations made by the Hubble Space Telescope in early 2007 show the presence of a wavy, high-contrast feature in Jupiter's atmosphere near 30 degrees North. The "Jovian Ribbon," best seen at 410 nanometers, irregularly undulates in latitude and is time-variable in appearance. A meridional intensity gradient algorithm was applied to the observations to track the Ribbon's contour. Spectral analysis of the contour revealed that the Ribbon's structure is a combination of several wavenumbers ranging from k equals 8-40. The Ribbon is a dynamic structure that has been observed to have spectral power for dominant wavenumbers which vary over a time period of one month. The presence of the Ribbon correlates with periods when the velocity of the westward jet at the same location is highest. We conducted numerical simulations to investigate the stability of westward jets of varying speed, vertical shear, and background static stability to different perturbations. A Ribbon-like morphology was best reproduced with a 35 per millisecond westward jet that decreases in amplitude for pressures greater than 700 hectopascals and a background static stability of N equals 0.005 per second perturbed by heat pulses constrained to latitudes south of 30 degrees North. Additionally, the simulated feature had wavenumbers that qualitatively matched observations and evolved throughout the simulation reproducing the Jovian Ribbon's dynamic structure.

  3. Asteroseismic observations and modelling of 70 Ophiuchi AB

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eggenberger, P; Miglio, A [Institut d' Astrophysique et de Geophysique de l' Universite de Liege, 17 Allee du 6 Aout, B-4000 Liege (Belgium); Carrier, F [Institute of Astronomy, University of Leuven, Celestijnenlaan 200 D, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Fernandes, J [Observatorio Astronomico da Universidade de Coimbra e Departamento de Matematica, FCTUC (Portugal); Santos, N C [Centro de AstrofIsica, Universidade do Porto, Rua das Estrelas, P-4150-762 Porto (Portugal)], E-mail:


    The analysis of solar-like oscillations for stars belonging to a binary system provides an opportunity to probe the internal stellar structure and to test our knowledge of stellar physics. We present asteroseismic observations of 70 Oph A performed with the HARPS spectrograph together with a comprehensive theoretical calibration of the 70 Ophiuchi system.

  4. Intelligent Cognitive Radio Models for Enhancing Future Radio Astronomy Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayodele Abiola Periola


    Full Text Available Radio astronomy organisations desire to optimise the terrestrial radio astronomy observations by mitigating against interference and enhancing angular resolution. Ground telescopes (GTs experience interference from intersatellite links (ISLs. Astronomy source radio signals received by GTs are analysed at the high performance computing (HPC infrastructure. Furthermore, observation limitation conditions prevent GTs from conducting radio astronomy observations all the time, thereby causing low HPC utilisation. This paper proposes mechanisms that protect GTs from ISL interference without permanent prevention of ISL data transmission and enhance angular resolution. The ISL transmits data by taking advantage of similarities in the sequence of observed astronomy sources to increase ISL connection duration. In addition, the paper proposes a mechanism that enhances angular resolution by using reconfigurable earth stations. Furthermore, the paper presents the opportunistic computing scheme (OCS to enhance HPC utilisation. OCS enables the underutilised HPC to be used to train learning algorithms of a cognitive base station. The performances of the three mechanisms are evaluated. Simulations show that the proposed mechanisms protect GTs from ISL interference, enhance angular resolution, and improve HPC utilisation.

  5. Citizen observations contributing to flood modelling: opportunities and challenges (United States)

    Assumpção, Thaine H.; Popescu, Ioana; Jonoski, Andreja; Solomatine, Dimitri P.


    Citizen contributions to science have been successfully implemented in many fields, and water resources is one of them. Through citizens, it is possible to collect data and obtain a more integrated decision-making process. Specifically, data scarcity has always been an issue in flood modelling, which has been addressed in the last decades by remote sensing and is already being discussed in the citizen science context. With this in mind, this article aims to review the literature on the topic and analyse the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. The literature on monitoring, mapping and modelling, was evaluated according to the flood-related variable citizens contributed to. Pros and cons of the collection/analysis methods were summarised. Then, pertinent publications were mapped into the flood modelling cycle, considering how citizen data properties (spatial and temporal coverage, uncertainty and volume) are related to its integration into modelling. It was clear that the number of studies in the area is rising. There are positive experiences reported in collection and analysis methods, for instance with velocity and land cover, and also when modelling is concerned, for example by using social media mining. However, matching the data properties necessary for each part of the modelling cycle with citizen-generated data is still challenging. Nevertheless, the concept that citizen contributions can be used for simulation and forecasting is proved and further work lies in continuing to develop and improve not only methods for collection and analysis, but certainly for integration into models as well. Finally, in view of recent automated sensors and satellite technologies, it is through studies as the ones analysed in this article that the value of citizen contributions, complementing such technologies, is demonstrated.

  6. Citizen observations contributing to flood modelling: opportunities and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. H. Assumpção


    Full Text Available Citizen contributions to science have been successfully implemented in many fields, and water resources is one of them. Through citizens, it is possible to collect data and obtain a more integrated decision-making process. Specifically, data scarcity has always been an issue in flood modelling, which has been addressed in the last decades by remote sensing and is already being discussed in the citizen science context. With this in mind, this article aims to review the literature on the topic and analyse the opportunities and challenges that lie ahead. The literature on monitoring, mapping and modelling, was evaluated according to the flood-related variable citizens contributed to. Pros and cons of the collection/analysis methods were summarised. Then, pertinent publications were mapped into the flood modelling cycle, considering how citizen data properties (spatial and temporal coverage, uncertainty and volume are related to its integration into modelling. It was clear that the number of studies in the area is rising. There are positive experiences reported in collection and analysis methods, for instance with velocity and land cover, and also when modelling is concerned, for example by using social media mining. However, matching the data properties necessary for each part of the modelling cycle with citizen-generated data is still challenging. Nevertheless, the concept that citizen contributions can be used for simulation and forecasting is proved and further work lies in continuing to develop and improve not only methods for collection and analysis, but certainly for integration into models as well. Finally, in view of recent automated sensors and satellite technologies, it is through studies as the ones analysed in this article that the value of citizen contributions, complementing such technologies, is demonstrated.

  7. A mathematical model of a steady flow through the Kaplan turbine - The existence of a weak solution in the case of an arbitrarily large inflow (United States)

    Neustupa, Tomáš


    The paper presents the mathematical model of a steady 2-dimensional viscous incompressible flow through a radial blade machine. The corresponding boundary value problem is studied in the rotating frame. We provide the classical and weak formulation of the problem. Using a special form of the so called "artificial" or "natural" boundary condition on the outflow, we prove the existence of a weak solution for an arbitrarily large inflow.

  8. Trans-Pacific transport of Asian dust: the CESM model analysis and comparison with satellite observations (United States)

    Wu, M.; Liu, X.; Luo, T.; Wang, Z.; Yang, K.; Wu, C.; Wang, H.; Zhang, K.


    Mineral dust plays an important role in the Earth's climate system due to its effects on radiation budgets, clouds, chemistry and biosphere. However, modeled dust aerosol is not well constrained and large uncertainties exist in modeled dust lifecycles. We evaluate dust spatial distributions in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with new dust extinction retrievals (Luo et al., 2015a, b) based on the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite (CALIPSO) and CloudSat measurement, with special focus on the Asian dust transport across the Pacific. It is shown that the default CESM underestimates the dust extinction over the Pacific by 1-2 order of magnitude. Especially, the model fails to capture the observed high values of dust extinction occurring from 850 to 500 hPa across the North Pacific (20°N-50°N). Modeled dust optical depth (DOD) decreases faster across the Pacific compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) observations. Sensitivity experiments with altered emission, vertical transport and deposition schemes have been conducted to identify the key process impacting dust transport. For that purpose, two new dust emission schemes by Kok et al. (2014a, b) and Ginoux et al. (2001), a new dry deposition scheme by Petroff and Zhang (2010) are implemented to the CESM. In addition, a new unified scheme for convective transport and wet removal of aerosols (Wang et al., 2013) is implemented to the same version of CESM to examine the influence of convective transport and wet deposition on dust transport. It is found that changes in wet scavenging and convective transport can strongly impact dust transport over the Pacific compared to changes in other processes. One of the new emission schemes further decreases the dust extinction across the Pacific. Dust extinction across the Pacific slightly increases when dry deposition velocity for fine particles is reduced.

  9. Developing a Model to Estimate Freshwater Gross Primary Production Using MODIS Surface Temperature Observations (United States)

    Saberi, S. J.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Solomon, C.; Boucher, J. M.


    Lakes contribute to local and regional climate conditions, cycle nutrients, and are viable indicators of climate change due to their sensitivity to disturbances in their water and airsheds. Utilizing spaceborne remote sensing (RS) techniques has considerable potential in studying lake dynamics because it allows for coherent and consistent spatial and temporal observations as well as estimates of lake functions without in situ measurements. However, in order for RS products to be useful, algorithms that relate in situ measurements to RS data must be developed. Estimates of lake metabolic rates are of particular scientific interest since they are indicative of lakes' roles in carbon cycling and ecological function. Currently, there are few existing algorithms relating remote sensing products to in-lake estimates of metabolic rates and more in-depth studies are still required. Here we use satellite surface temperature observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product (MYD11A2) and published in-lake gross primary production (GPP) estimates for eleven globally distributed lakes during a one-year period to produce a univariate quadratic equation model. The general model was validated using other lakes during an equivalent one-year time period (R2=0.76). The statistical analyses reveal significant positive relationships between MODIS temperature data and the previously modeled in-lake GPP. Lake-specific models for Lake Mendota (USA), Rotorua (New Zealand), and Taihu (China) showed stronger relationships than the general combined model, pointing to local influences such as watershed characteristics on in-lake GPP in some cases. These validation data suggest that the developed algorithm has a potential to predict lake GPP on a global scale.

  10. The cosmological Janus model: comparison with observational data (United States)

    Petit, Jean-Pierre; Dagostini, Gilles


    In 2014 we presented a model based on a system of two coupled field equations to describe two populations of particles, one positive and the other mass of negative mass. The analysis of this system by Newtonian approximation show that the masses of the same signs attract according to Newton's law while the masses of opposite signs repel according to an anti-Newton law. This eliminates the runaway phenomenon. It uses the time-dependent exact solution of this system to build the bolometric magnitude distribution of the red-shift. Comparing the prediction of our model -which requires adjustment with a single parameter- with the data from 740 supernovae highlighting the acceleration of the universe gives an excellent agreement. The comparison is then made with the multi-parametric Λ CDM model.

  11. Observing and modeling nonlinear dynamics in an internal combustion engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daw, C.S.; Kennel, M.B.; Finney, C.E.; Connolly, F.T.


    We propose a low-dimensional, physically motivated, nonlinear map as a model for cyclic combustion variation in spark-ignited internal combustion engines. A key feature is the interaction between stochastic, small-scale fluctuations in engine parameters and nonlinear deterministic coupling between successive engine cycles. Residual cylinder gas from each cycle alters the in-cylinder fuel-air ratio and thus the combustion efficiency in succeeding cycles. The model close-quote s simplicity allows rapid simulation of thousands of engine cycles, permitting statistical studies of cyclic-variation patterns and providing physical insight into this technologically important phenomenon. Using symbol statistics to characterize the noisy dynamics, we find good quantitative matches between our model and experimental time-series measurements. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  12. Identifying Clusters with Mixture Models that Include Radial Velocity Observations (United States)

    Czarnatowicz, Alexis; Ybarra, Jason E.


    The study of stellar clusters plays an integral role in the study of star formation. We present a cluster mixture model that considers radial velocity data in addition to spatial data. Maximum likelihood estimation through the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is used for parameter estimation. Our mixture model analysis can be used to distinguish adjacent or overlapping clusters, and estimate properties for each cluster.Work supported by awards from the Virginia Foundation for Independent Colleges (VFIC) Undergraduate Science Research Fellowship and The Research Experience @Bridgewater (TREB).

  13. Modeling and Observing the Role of Wind-Waves in Titan's Hydrocarbon Seas (United States)

    Hayes, A. G., Jr.; Soderblom, J. M.; Donelan, M. A.; Barnes, J. W.; Lorenz, R. D.


    Oceanography is no longer just an Earth Science. Standing bodies of liquid that interact with both atmospheric and surface reservoirs are known to exist on Titan and are thought to have existed on early Mars. The exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum between lakes/seas and the atmosphere are of fundamental importance to the hydrologic systems of all three bodies. On Earth, surface liquids are almost always disturbed by some form of wave activity. On Titan, however, Cassini observations through the end of the Equinox Mission (12/2010) showed no indication of surface waves. This was intriguing given the predominance of aeolian features at equatorial latitudes and has been attributed to the light winds predicted during the Titan winter. More recently, the previous series of upper limits and non-detections have given way to indications that the expected freshening of winds in northern summer is causing sporadic ruffling of sea surfaces. Specifically, apparent sunglints offset from the geometric specular point have become a common observation by VIMS and transient radar signatures have been observed over the surfaces of both Ligeia Mare and Kraken Mare. SAR images also reveal morphologies consistent with secondary coastlines, most notably Ontario Lacus and Ligeia Mare. This presentation will review Cassini observations of transient surface activity on Titan's Mare and quantitatively describe the implied constraints on sea surface roughness. Assuming that the transient activity is due to wind waves, we can turn the Cassini spacecraft into an anemometer by coupling roughness constraints to a physics-based model of wave generation and propagation in the Titan environment. By determining the fraction of the lake surface that is oriented in a specific geometry, which can be obtained from either nadir RADAR backscatter or VIMS specular reflection measurements, we can determine the driving wind speeds that best match the observations by matching the fraction of the

  14. Photometric observations and numerical modeling of AW Sge (United States)

    Montgomery, M. M.; Voloshina, I.; Goel, Amit


    In this work, we present R-band photometric light curves of Cataclysmic Variable AW Sge, an SU Uma type, near superoutburst maximum. The positive superhump shape changes over three days, from single peaked on October 11, 2013 to one maximum near phase ϕ ˜ 0.3 followed by minor peaks near phases ϕ ˜ 0.6 and ϕ ˜ 0.9, respectively, on October 13, 2013. Using the maxima from October 11-13, 2013 (JD 2456577-2356579), the observed positive superhump period is 0.074293 ± 0.000025 days. In addition to the observations, we also provide a three dimensional Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic simulation near superoutburst maximum, for comparison, assuming a secondary-to-primary mass ratio q =M2 /M1 = 0.6 M⊙/0.132 M⊙ = 0.22. The simulation produces positive superhump shapes that are similar to the observations. The simulated positive superhump has a period of 0.076923 days, which is approximately 6% longer than the orbital period, assuming an orbital period Porb = 0.0724 days. The 3.5% difference from the observed positive superhump period is likely due to the assumptions used in generating the simulations, as the orbital period and masses are not well known. From an analysis of the simulated positive superhump shape near superoutburst maximum, the maximum occurs near ϕ ˜ 0.3, when the disk is highly elliptical and eccentric and at least one of the two density waves is compressing with the disk rim. Based on the simulation, we find that the disk may be tilted and precessing in the retrograde direction at a time that is just before the next outburst and/or superoutburst.

  15. Ionospheric conductance distribution and MHD wave structure: observation and model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budnik

    Full Text Available The ionosphere influences magnetohydrodynamic waves in the magnetosphere by damping because of Joule heating and by varying the wave structure itself. There are different eigenvalues and eigensolutions of the three dimensional toroidal wave equation if the height integrated Pedersen conductivity exceeds a critical value, namely the wave conductance of the magnetosphere. As a result a jump in frequency can be observed in ULF pulsation records. This effect mainly occurs in regions with gradients in the Pedersen conductances, as in the auroral oval or the dawn and dusk areas. A pulsation event recorded by the geostationary GOES-6 satellite is presented. We explain the observed change in frequency as a change in the wave structure while crossing the terminator. Furthermore, selected results of numerical simulations in a dipole magnetosphere with realistic ionospheric conditions are discussed. These are in good agreement with the observational data.

    Key words. Ionosphere · (Ionosphere · magnetosphere interactions · Magnetospheric physics · Magnetosphere · ionosphere interactions · MHD waves and instabilities.

  16. Ionospheric conductance distribution and MHD wave structure: observation and model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Budnik


    Full Text Available The ionosphere influences magnetohydrodynamic waves in the magnetosphere by damping because of Joule heating and by varying the wave structure itself. There are different eigenvalues and eigensolutions of the three dimensional toroidal wave equation if the height integrated Pedersen conductivity exceeds a critical value, namely the wave conductance of the magnetosphere. As a result a jump in frequency can be observed in ULF pulsation records. This effect mainly occurs in regions with gradients in the Pedersen conductances, as in the auroral oval or the dawn and dusk areas. A pulsation event recorded by the geostationary GOES-6 satellite is presented. We explain the observed change in frequency as a change in the wave structure while crossing the terminator. Furthermore, selected results of numerical simulations in a dipole magnetosphere with realistic ionospheric conditions are discussed. These are in good agreement with the observational data.Key words. Ionosphere · (Ionosphere · magnetosphere interactions · Magnetospheric physics · Magnetosphere · ionosphere interactions · MHD waves and instabilities.

  17. A non-linear beta-binomial regression model for mapping EORTC QLQ- C30 to the EQ-5D-3L in lung cancer patients: a comparison with existing approaches. (United States)

    Khan, Iftekhar; Morris, Stephen


    The performance of the Beta Binomial (BB) model is compared with several existing models for mapping the EORTC QLQ-C30 (QLQ-C30) on to the EQ-5D-3L using data from lung cancer trials. Data from 2 separate non small cell lung cancer clinical trials (TOPICAL and SOCCAR) are used to develop and validate the BB model. Comparisons with Linear, TOBIT, Quantile, Quadratic and CLAD models are carried out. The mean prediction error, R(2), proportion predicted outside the valid range, clinical interpretation of coefficients, model fit and estimation of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) are reported and compared. Monte-Carlo simulation is also used. The Beta-Binomial regression model performed 'best' among all models. For TOPICAL and SOCCAR trials, respectively, residual mean square error (RMSE) was 0.09 and 0.11; R(2) was 0.75 and 0.71; observed vs. predicted means were 0.612 vs. 0.608 and 0.750 vs. 0.749. Mean difference in QALY's (observed vs. predicted) were 0.051 vs. 0.053 and 0.164 vs. 0.162 for TOPICAL and SOCCAR respectively. Models tested on independent data show simulated 95% confidence from the BB model containing the observed mean more often (77% and 59% for TOPICAL and SOCCAR respectively) compared to the other models. All algorithms over-predict at poorer health states but the BB model was relatively better, particularly for the SOCCAR data. The BB model may offer superior predictive properties amongst mapping algorithms considered and may be more useful when predicting EQ-5D-3L at poorer health states. We recommend the algorithm derived from the TOPICAL data due to better predictive properties and less uncertainty.

  18. Comparing observed and modelled growth of larval herring (Clupea harengusz: Testing individual-based model parameterisations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena M. Hauss


    Full Text Available Experiments that directly test larval fish individual-based model (IBM growth predictions are uncommon since it is difficult to simultaneously measure all relevant metabolic and behavioural attributes. We compared observed and modelled somatic growth of larval herring (Clupea harengus in short-term (50 degree-day laboratory trials conducted at 7 and 13°C in which larvae were either unfed or fed ad libitum on different prey sizes (~100 to 550 µm copepods, Acartia tonsa. The larval specific growth rate (SGR, % DW d-1 was generally overestimated by the model, especially for larvae foraging on large prey items. Model parameterisations were adjusted to explore the effect of 1 temporal variability in foraging of individuals, and 2 reduced assimilation efficiency due to rapid gut evacuation at high feeding rates. With these adjustments, the model described larval growth well across temperatures, prey sizes, and larval sizes. Although the experiments performed verified the growth model, variability in growth and foraging behaviour among larvae shows that it is necessary to measure both the physiology and feeding behaviour of the same individual. This is a challenge for experimentalists but will ultimately yield the most valuable data to adequately model environmental impacts on the survival and growth of marine fish early life stages.

  19. Modelling and mapping tick dynamics using volunteered observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia-Martí, Irene; Zurita-Milla, Raúl; Vliet, van Arnold J.H.; Takken, Willem


    Background: Tick populations and tick-borne infections have steadily increased since the mid-1990s posing an ever-increasing risk to public health. Yet, modelling tick dynamics remains challenging because of the lack of data and knowledge on this complex phenomenon. Here we present an approach to

  20. Blending geological observations and convection models to reconstruct mantle dynamics (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Bocher, Marie; Fournier, Alexandre; Tackley, Paul


    Knowledge of the state of the Earth mantle and its temporal evolution is fundamental to a variety of disciplines in Earth Sciences, from the internal dynamics to its many expressions in the geological record (postglacial rebound, sea level change, ore deposit, tectonics or geomagnetic reversals). Mantle convection theory is the centerpiece to unravel the present and past state of the mantle. For the past 40 years considerable efforts have been made to improve the quality of numerical models of mantle convection. However, they are still sparsely used to estimate the convective history of the solid Earth, in comparison to ocean or atmospheric models for weather and climate prediction. The main shortcoming is their inability to successfully produce Earth-like seafloor spreading and continental drift self-consistently. Recent convection models have begun to successfully predict these processes. Such breakthrough opens the opportunity to retrieve the recent dynamics of the Earth's mantle by blending convection models together with advanced geological datasets. A proof of concept will be presented, consisting in a synthetic test based on a sequential data assimilation methodology.

  1. Observations and modeling of deterministic properties of human ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Simple models show that in Type-I intermittency a characteristic U-shaped probability distribution is obtained for the laminar phase length. The laminar phase length distribution characteristic for Type-I intermittency may be obtained in human heart rate variability data for some cases of pathology. The heart and its regulatory ...

  2. Quantification of fungal growth: models, experiment, and observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamour, A.


    This thesis is concerned with the growth of microscopic mycelial fungi (Section I), and that of macroscopic fungi, which form specialised hyphal structures such as rhizomorphs (Section II). A growth model is developed in Section I in relation to soil organic

  3. Capturing Characteristics of Atmospheric Refractivity Using Observations and Modeling Approaches (United States)


    model uses the Kiefer (1941) equation and doesn’t correct for salinity as suggested by Sverdrup et al. (1942). 32 The LKB-based evaporation duct...Santa Barbara Santa Maria Monterey Buoy # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 NOAA ID # 44066 41048 42003 46025 46029 46054 46011 46042 Valid Year 2009 2013 2013 2013 2012

  4. Runoff modeling of the Mara River using Satellite Observed Soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ecosystem, famous for the scenic large scale seasonal wildebeest migration. In the south-western ... MATERIALS AND METHODS. 2.1. In-situ measurements. Runoff data was utilized for validation and calibration of the soil moisture-runoff model. The data was obtained for Mara ... In this study we apply a modified version of ...

  5. Experimental observations and theoretical models for beam-beam phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheifets, S.


    The beam-beam interaction in storage rings exhibits all the characteristics of nonintegrable dynamical systems. Here one finds all kinds of resonances, closed orbits, stable and unstable fixed points, stochastic layers, chaotic behavior, diffusion, etc. The storage ring itself being an expensive device nevertheless while constructed and put into operation presents a good opportunity of experimentally studying the long-time behavior of both conservative (proton machines) and nonconservative (electron machines) dynamical systems - the number of bunch-bunch interactions routinely reaches values of 10 10 -10 11 and could be increased by decreasing the beam current. At the same time the beam-beam interaction puts practical limits for the yield of the storage ring. This phenomenon not only determines the design value of main storage ring parameters (luminosity, space charge parameters, beam current), but also in fact prevents many of the existing storage rings from achieving design parameters. Hence, the problem has great practical importance along with its enormous theoretical interest. A brief overview of the problem is presented

  6. Observation Likelihood Model Design and Failure Recovery Scheme Toward Reliable Localization of Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-bae Moon


    Full Text Available Although there have been many researches on mobile robot localization, it is still difficult to obtain reliable localization performance in a human co-existing real environment. Reliability of localization is highly dependent upon developer's experiences because uncertainty is caused by a variety of reasons. We have developed a range sensor based integrated localization scheme for various indoor service robots. Through the experience, we found out that there are several significant experimental issues. In this paper, we provide useful solutions for following questions which are frequently faced with in practical applications: 1 How to design an observation likelihood model? 2 How to detect the localization failure? 3 How to recover from the localization failure? We present design guidelines of observation likelihood model. Localization failure detection and recovery schemes are presented by focusing on abrupt wheel slippage. Experiments were carried out in a typical office building environment. The proposed scheme to identify the localizer status is useful in practical environments. Moreover, the semi-global localization is a computationally efficient recovery scheme from localization failure. The results of experiments and analysis clearly present the usefulness of proposed solutions.

  7. Observation Likelihood Model Design and Failure Recovery Scheme toward Reliable Localization of Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-bae Moon


    Full Text Available Although there have been many researches on mobile robot localization, it is still difficult to obtain reliable localization performance in a human co-existing real environment. Reliability of localization is highly dependent upon developer's experiences because uncertainty is caused by a variety of reasons. We have developed a range sensor based integrated localization scheme for various indoor service robots. Through the experience, we found out that there are several significant experimental issues. In this paper, we provide useful solutions for following questions which are frequently faced with in practical applications: 1 How to design an observation likelihood model? 2 How to detect the localization failure? 3 How to recover from the localization failure? We present design guidelines of observation likelihood model. Localization failure detection and recovery schemes are presented by focusing on abrupt wheel slippage. Experiments were carried out in a typical office building environment. The proposed scheme to identify the localizer status is useful in practical environments. Moreover, the semi-global localization is a computationally efficient recovery scheme from localization failure. The results of experiments and analysis clearly present the usefulness of proposed solutions.

  8. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model (United States)

    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby


    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  9. GIS for large-scale watershed observational data model (United States)

    Patino-Gomez, Carlos

    Because integrated management of a river basin requires the development of models that are used for many purposes, e.g., to assess risks and possible mitigation of droughts and floods, manage water rights, assess water quality, and simply to understand the hydrology of the basin, the development of a relational database from which models can access the various data needed to describe the systems being modeled is fundamental. In order for this concept to be useful and widely applicable, however, it must have a standard design. The recently developed ArcHydro data model facilitates the organization of data according to the "basin" principle and allows access to hydrologic information by models. The development of a basin-scale relational database for the Rio Grande/Bravo basin implemented in a Geographic Information System is one of the contributions of this research. This geodatabase represents the first major attempt to establish a more complete understanding of the basin as a whole, including spatial and temporal information obtained from the United States of America and Mexico. Difficulties in processing raster datasets over large regions are studied in this research. One of the most important contributions is the application of a Raster-Network Regionalization technique, which utilizes raster-based analysis at the subregional scale in an efficient manner and combines the resulting subregional vector datasets into a regional database. Another important contribution of this research is focused on implementing a robust structure for handling huge temporal data sets related to monitoring points such as hydrometric and climatic stations, reservoir inlets and outlets, water rights, etc. For the Rio Grande study area, the ArcHydro format is applied to the historical information collected in order to include and relate these time series to the monitoring points in the geodatabase. Its standard time series format is changed to include a relationship to the agency from

  10. Reduced modeling and state observation of an activated sludge process. (United States)

    Queinnec, Isabelle; Gómez-Quintero, Claudia-Sophya


    This article first proposes a reduction strategy of the activated sludge process model with alternated aeration. Initiated with the standard activated sludge model (ASM1), the reduction is based on some biochemical considerations followed by linear approximations of nonlinear terms. Two submodels are then obtained, one for the aerobic phase and one for the anoxic phase, using four state variables related to the organic substrate concentration, the ammonium and nitrate-nitrite nitrogen, and the oxygen concentration. Then, a two-step robust estimation strategy is used to estimate both the unmeasured state variables and the unknown inflow ammonium nitrogen concentration. Parameter uncertainty is considered in the dynamics and input matrices of the system. 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers

  11. Metric versus observable operator representation, higher spin models (United States)

    Fring, Andreas; Frith, Thomas


    We elaborate further on the metric representation that is obtained by transferring the time-dependence from a Hermitian Hamiltonian to the metric operator in a related non-Hermitian system. We provide further insight into the procedure on how to employ the time-dependent Dyson relation and the quasi-Hermiticity relation to solve time-dependent Hermitian Hamiltonian systems. By solving both equations separately we argue here that it is in general easier to solve the former. We solve the mutually related time-dependent Schrödinger equation for a Hermitian and non-Hermitian spin 1/2, 1 and 3/2 model with time-independent and time-dependent metric, respectively. In all models the overdetermined coupled system of equations for the Dyson map can be decoupled algebraic manipulations and reduces to simple linear differential equations and an equation that can be converted into the non-linear Ermakov-Pinney equation.


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caceres, Claudio; Hardy, Adam; Schreiber, Matthias R.; Cánovas, Héctor [Instituto de Física y Astronomía, Universidad de Valparaíso, Av. Gran Bretaña 1111, 2360102 Valparaíso (Chile); Cieza, Lucas A. [Núcleo de Astronomía, Universidad Diego Portales, Av. Ejército 441, Santiago (Chile); Williams, Jonathan P. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Hales, Antonio [Atacama Large Millimeter/Submillimeter Array, Joint ALMA Observatory, Alonso de Córdova 3107, Vitacura, 763-0355 Santiago (Chile); Pinte, Christophe [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, IPAG, CNRS, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Ménard, Francois [UMI-FCA, CNRS/INSU, UMI 3386 (France); Wahhaj, Zahed [European Southern Observatory, Av. Alonso de Córdova 3107, Vitacura, 19001 Santiago (Chile)


    It is thought that planetary mass companions may form through gravitational disk instabilities or core accretion. Identifying such objects in the process of formation would provide the most direct test for the competing formation theories. One of the most promising candidates for a planetary mass object still in formation is the third object in the FW Tau system. We present here ALMA cycle 1 observations confirming the recently published 1.3 mm detection of a dust disk around this third object and present for the first time a clear detection of a single peak {sup 12}CO (2–1) line, providing direct evidence for the simultaneous existence of a gas disk. We perform radiative transfer modeling of the third object in FW Tau and find that current observations are consistent with either a brown dwarf embedded in an edge-on disk or a planet embedded in a low inclination disk, which is externally irradiated by the binary companion. Further observations with ALMA, aiming for high SNR detections of non-contaminated gas lines, are required to conclusively unveil the nature of the third object in FW Tau.

  13. Uniform relativistic universe models with pressure. Part 2. Observational tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krempec, J.; Krygier, B.


    The magnitude-redshift and angular diameter-redshift relations are discussed for the uniform (homogeneous and isotropic) relativistic Universe models with pressure. The inclusion of pressure into the energy-momentum tensor has given larger values of the deceleration parameter q. An increase of the deceleration parameter has led to the brightening of objects as well as to a little larger angular diameters. (author)

  14. Observation of the Meissner effect in a lattice Higgs model (United States)

    Damgaard, Poul H.; Heller, Urs M.


    The lattice-regularized U(1) Higgs model in an external electromagnetic field is studied by Monte Carlo techniques. In the Coulomb phase, magnetic flux can flow through uniformly. The Higgs phase splits into a region where magnetic flux can penetrate only in the form of vortices and a region where the magnetic flux is completely expelled, the relativistic analog of the Meissner effect in superconductivity. Evidence is presented for symmetry restoration in strong external fields.

  15. Science-Grade Observing Systems as Process Observatories: Mapping and Understanding Nonlinearity and Multiscale Memory with Models and Observations (United States)

    Barros, A. P.; Wilson, A. M.; Miller, D. K.; Tao, J.; Genereux, D. P.; Prat, O.; Petersen, W. A.; Brunsell, N. A.; Petters, M. D.; Duan, Y.


    Using the planet as a study domain and collecting observations over unprecedented ranges of spatial and temporal scales, NASA's EOS (Earth Observing System) program was an agent of transformational change in Earth Sciences over the last thirty years. The remarkable space-time organization and variability of atmospheric and terrestrial moist processes that emerged from the analysis of comprehensive satellite observations provided much impetus to expand the scope of land-atmosphere interaction studies in Hydrology and Hydrometeorology. Consequently, input and output terms in the mass and energy balance equations evolved from being treated as fluxes that can be used as boundary conditions, or forcing, to being viewed as dynamic processes of a coupled system interacting at multiple scales. Measurements of states or fluxes are most useful if together they map, reveal and/or constrain the underlying physical processes and their interactions. This can only be accomplished through an integrated observing system designed to capture the coupled physics, including nonlinear feedbacks and tipping points. Here, we first review and synthesize lessons learned from hydrometeorology studies in the Southern Appalachians and in the Southern Great Plains using both ground-based and satellite observations, physical models and data-assimilation systems. We will specifically focus on mapping and understanding nonlinearity and multiscale memory of rainfall-runoff processes in mountainous regions. It will be shown that beyond technical rigor, variety, quantity and duration of measurements, the utility of observing systems is determined by their interpretive value in the context of physical models to describe the linkages among different observations. Second, we propose a framework for designing science-grade and science-minded process-oriented integrated observing and modeling platforms for hydrometeorological studies.

  16. Direct observation of intermediate states in model membrane fusion (United States)

    Keidel, Andrea; Bartsch, Tobias F.; Florin, Ernst-Ludwig


    We introduce a novel assay for membrane fusion of solid supported membranes on silica beads and on coverslips. Fusion of the lipid bilayers is induced by bringing an optically trapped bead in contact with the coverslip surface while observing the bead’s thermal motion with microsecond temporal and nanometer spatial resolution using a three-dimensional position detector. The probability of fusion is controlled by the membrane tension on the particle. We show that the progression of fusion can be monitored by changes in the three-dimensional position histograms of the bead and in its rate of diffusion. We were able to observe all fusion intermediates including transient fusion, formation of a stalk, hemifusion and the completion of a fusion pore. Fusion intermediates are characterized by axial but not lateral confinement of the motion of the bead and independently by the change of its rate of diffusion due to the additional drag from the stalk-like connection between the two membranes. The detailed information provided by this assay makes it ideally suited for studies of early events in pure lipid bilayer fusion or fusion assisted by fusogenic molecules. PMID:27029285

  17. Committed warming inferred from observations and an energy balance model (United States)

    Pincus, R.; Mauritsen, T.


    Due to the lifetime of CO2 and thermal inertia of the ocean, the Earth's climate is not equilibrated with anthropogenic forcing. As a result, even if fossil fuel emissions were to suddenly cease, some level of committed warming is expected due to past emissions. Here, we provide an observational-based quantification of this committed warming using the instrument record of global-mean warming, recently-improved estimates of Earth's energy imbalance, and estimates of radiative forcing from the fifth IPCC assessment report. Compared to pre-industrial levels, we find a committed warming of 1.5K [0.9-3.6, 5-95 percentile] at equilibrium, and of 1.3K [0.9-2.3] within this century. However, when assuming that ocean carbon uptake cancels remnant greenhouse gas-induced warming on centennial timescales, committed warming is reduced to 1.1K [0.7-1.8]. Conservatively, there is a 32% risk that committed warming already exceeds the 1.5K target set in Paris, and that this will likely be crossed prior to 2053. Regular updates of these observationally-constrained committed warming estimates, though simplistic, can provide transparent guidance as uncertainty regarding transient climate sensitivity inevitably narrows and understanding the limitations of the framework is advanced.

  18. Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models (United States)

    Nadiga, Balasubramanya; Urban, Nathan


    First-principles-based Earth System Models (ESMs) are central to both improving our understanding of the climate system and developing climate projections. Nevertheless, given the diversity of climate simulated by the various ESMs and the intense computational burden associated with running such models, simple climate models (SCMs) are key to being able to compare ESMs and the climates they simulate in a dynamically meaningful fashion. We present some preliminary work along these lines. In an application of an SCM to compare different ESMs and observations, we demonstrate a deficiency in the commonly-used upwelling-diffusion (UD) energy balance model (EBM). When we consider the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake, the lack of representation of processes such as deep water formation and subduction in the UD-EBM precludes a reasonable representation of the vertical distribution of heat uptake in that model. We then demonstrate how the problem can be remedied by introducing a parameterization of such processes in the UD-EBM. With further development, it is anticipated that this approach of ESM inter-comparison using simple physics-based models will lead to further insights into aspects of the climate response such as its stability and sensitivity, uncertainty and predictability, and underlying flow structure and topology.

  19. A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong


    Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

  20. Pre-existing liver cirrhosis reduced the toxic effect of diethylene glycol in a rat model due to the impaired hepatic alcohol dehydrogenase. (United States)

    Ming Xing Huang; Xiao Mou Peng; Lin Gu; Gui Hua Chen


    Hepatic metabolizing enzymes of diethylene glycol (DEG) are impaired in liver diseases. Thus, the purpose of this study was to increase our understandings in metabolism and toxicology of DEG by clarifying the influences of pre-existing liver disease. Forty Sprague-Dawley rats with carbon tetrachloride-induced liver cirrhosis and 20 control rats were intraperitoneally administered a single dose of DEG, and randomly killed 1, 2, 5 or 8 days following exposure. Compared with control rats, the model rats had significantly higher blood CO(2)-combining power, lower blood urine nitrogen, serum creatinine and alanine aminotransferase levels on the second day and a lower mortality rate on the eighth day following DEG exposure. Enlargements of liver and kidneys and degeneration and necrosis of hepatocytes and renal tubules in the model rats was also less serious than in the control rats. Urine DEG levels were significantly higher on the first day in the model rats than the control rats (46.65 ± 8.79 mg vs 18.88 ± 6.18 mg, p activity in the model rats was significantly lower than that in the control rats, which was positively related to renal damage. The toxic effects of DEG in rats with pre-existing liver cirrhosis are significantly reduced, which may be due to the decreased hepatic ADH activity. It suggests that the metabolite of ADH is responsible for DEG poisoning, and this toxic metabolite may mainly originate in the liver.

  1. Analysis and Modeling of Jovian Radio Emissions Observed by Galileo (United States)

    Menietti, J. D.


    Our studies of Jovian radio emission have resulted in the publication of five papers in refereed journals, with three additional papers in progress. The topics of these papers include the study of narrow-band kilometric radio emission; the apparent control of radio emission by Callisto; quasi-periodic radio emission; hectometric attenuation lanes and their relationship to Io volcanic activity; and modeling of HOM attenuation lanes using ray tracing. A further study of the control of radio emission by Jovian satellites is currently in progress. Abstracts of each of these papers are contained in the Appendix. A list of the publication titles are also included.

  2. Modelling and mapping tick dynamics using volunteered observations. (United States)

    Garcia-Martí, Irene; Zurita-Milla, Raúl; van Vliet, Arnold J H; Takken, Willem


    Tick populations and tick-borne infections have steadily increased since the mid-1990s posing an ever-increasing risk to public health. Yet, modelling tick dynamics remains challenging because of the lack of data and knowledge on this complex phenomenon. Here we present an approach to model and map tick dynamics using volunteered data. This approach is illustrated with 9 years of data collected by a group of trained volunteers who sampled active questing ticks (AQT) on a monthly basis and for 15 locations in the Netherlands. We aimed at finding the main environmental drivers of AQT at multiple time-scales, and to devise daily AQT maps at the national level for 2014. Tick dynamics is a complex ecological problem driven by biotic (e.g. pathogens, wildlife, humans) and abiotic (e.g. weather, landscape) factors. We enriched the volunteered AQT collection with six types of weather variables (aggregated at 11 temporal scales), three types of satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover, and mast years. Then, we applied a feature engineering process to derive a set of 101 features to characterize the conditions that yielded a particular count of AQT on a date and location. To devise models predicting the AQT, we use a time-aware Random Forest regression method, which is suitable to find non-linear relationships in complex ecological problems, and provides an estimation of the most important features to predict the AQT. We trained a model capable of fitting AQT with reduced statistical metrics. The multi-temporal study on the feature importance indicates that variables linked to water levels in the atmosphere (i.e. evapotranspiration, relative humidity) consistently showed a higher explanatory power than previous works using temperature. As a product of this study, we are able of mapping daily tick dynamics at the national level. This study paves the way towards the design of new applications in the fields of environmental research, nature management, and public

  3. Modelling and mapping tick dynamics using volunteered observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene Garcia-Martí


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Tick populations and tick-borne infections have steadily increased since the mid-1990s posing an ever-increasing risk to public health. Yet, modelling tick dynamics remains challenging because of the lack of data and knowledge on this complex phenomenon. Here we present an approach to model and map tick dynamics using volunteered data. This approach is illustrated with 9 years of data collected by a group of trained volunteers who sampled active questing ticks (AQT on a monthly basis and for 15 locations in the Netherlands. We aimed at finding the main environmental drivers of AQT at multiple time-scales, and to devise daily AQT maps at the national level for 2014. Method Tick dynamics is a complex ecological problem driven by biotic (e.g. pathogens, wildlife, humans and abiotic (e.g. weather, landscape factors. We enriched the volunteered AQT collection with six types of weather variables (aggregated at 11 temporal scales, three types of satellite-derived vegetation indices, land cover, and mast years. Then, we applied a feature engineering process to derive a set of 101 features to characterize the conditions that yielded a particular count of AQT on a date and location. To devise models predicting the AQT, we use a time-aware Random Forest regression method, which is suitable to find non-linear relationships in complex ecological problems, and provides an estimation of the most important features to predict the AQT. Results We trained a model capable of fitting AQT with reduced statistical metrics. The multi-temporal study on the feature importance indicates that variables linked to water levels in the atmosphere (i.e. evapotranspiration, relative humidity consistently showed a higher explanatory power than previous works using temperature. As a product of this study, we are able of mapping daily tick dynamics at the national level. Conclusions This study paves the way towards the design of new applications in the fields

  4. Modelling the widths of fission observables in GEF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schmidt K.-H.


    Full Text Available The widths of the mass distributions of the different fission channels are traced back to the probability distributions of the corresponding quantum oscillators that are coupled to the heat bath, which is formed by the intrinsic degrees of freedom of the fissioning system under the influence of pairing correlations and shell effects. Following conclusion from stochastic calculations of Adeev and Pashkevich, an early freezing due to dynamical effects is assumed. It is shown that the mass width of the fission channels in low-energy fission is strongly influenced by the zero-point motion of the corresponding quantum oscillator. The observed variation of the mass widths of the asymmetric fission channels with excitation energy is attributed to the energy-dependent properties of the heat bath and not to the population of excited states of the corresponding quantum oscillator.

  5. High-Energy Aspects of Solar Flares: Observations and Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Wei [Lockheed Martin Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory; Guo, Fan [Los Alamos National Laboratory


    The paper begins by describing the structure of the Sun, with emphasis on the corona. The Sun is a unique plasma laboratory, which can be probed by Sun-grazing comets, and is the driver of space weather. Energization and particle acceleration mechanisms in solar flares is presented; magnetic reconnection is key is understanding stochastic acceleration mechanisms. Then coupling between kinetic and fluid aspects is taken up; the next step is feedback of atmospheric response to the acceleration process – rapid quenching of acceleration. Future challenges include applications of stochastic acceleration to solar energetic particles (SEPs), Fermi γ-rays observations, fast-mode magnetosonic wave trains in a funnel-shaped wave guide associated with flare pulsations, and the new SMEX mission IRIS (Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph),

  6. Slow Solar Wind: Observable Characteristics for Constraining Modelling (United States)

    Ofman, L.; Abbo, L.; Antiochos, S. K.; Hansteen, V. H.; Harra, L.; Ko, Y. K.; Lapenta, G.; Li, B.; Riley, P.; Strachan, L.; von Steiger, R.; Wang, Y. M.


    The Slow Solar Wind (SSW) origin is an open issue in the post SOHO era and forms a major objective for planned future missions such as the Solar Orbiter and Solar Probe Plus.Results from spacecraft data, combined with theoretical modeling, have helped to investigate many aspects of the SSW. Fundamental physical properties of the coronal plasma have been derived from spectroscopic and imaging remote-sensing data and in-situ data, and these results have provided crucial insights for a deeper understanding of the origin and acceleration of the SSW.Advances models of the SSW in coronal streamers and other structures have been developed using 3D MHD and multi-fluid equations.Nevertheless, there are still debated questions such as:What are the source regions of SSW? What are their contributions to the SSW?Which is the role of the magnetic topology in corona for the origin, acceleration and energy deposition of SSW?Which are the possible acceleration and heating mechanisms for the SSW?The aim of this study is to present the insights on the SSW origin and formationarisen during the discussions at the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) by the Team entitled ''Slowsolar wind sources and acceleration mechanisms in the corona'' held in Bern (Switzerland) in March2014--2015. The attached figure will be presented to summarize the different hypotheses of the SSW formation.

  7. Standard Model in multiscale theories and observational constraints (United States)

    Calcagni, Gianluca; Nardelli, Giuseppe; Rodríguez-Fernández, David


    We construct and analyze the Standard Model of electroweak and strong interactions in multiscale spacetimes with (i) weighted derivatives and (ii) q -derivatives. Both theories can be formulated in two different frames, called fractional and integer picture. By definition, the fractional picture is where physical predictions should be made. (i) In the theory with weighted derivatives, it is shown that gauge invariance and the requirement of having constant masses in all reference frames make the Standard Model in the integer picture indistinguishable from the ordinary one. Experiments involving only weak and strong forces are insensitive to a change of spacetime dimensionality also in the fractional picture, and only the electromagnetic and gravitational sectors can break the degeneracy. For the simplest multiscale measures with only one characteristic time, length and energy scale t*, ℓ* and E*, we compute the Lamb shift in the hydrogen atom and constrain the multiscale correction to the ordinary result, getting the absolute upper bound t*28 TeV . Stronger bounds are obtained from the measurement of the fine-structure constant. (ii) In the theory with q -derivatives, considering the muon decay rate and the Lamb shift in light atoms, we obtain the independent absolute upper bounds t*35 MeV . For α0=1 /2 , the Lamb shift alone yields t*450 GeV .

  8. Exploring international clinical education in US-based programs: identifying common practices and modifying an existing conceptual model of international service-learning. (United States)

    Pechak, Celia M; Black, Jill D


    Increasingly physical therapist students complete part of their clinical training outside of their home country. This trend is understudied. The purposes of this study were to: (1) explore, in depth, various international clinical education (ICE) programs; and (2) determine whether the Conceptual Model of Optimal International Service-Learning (ISL) could be applied or adapted to represent ICE. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyze ICE programs and consider modification of an existing ISL conceptual model for ICE. Fifteen faculty in the United States currently involved in ICE were interviewed. The interview transcriptions were systematically analyzed by two researchers. Three models of ICE practices emerged: (1) a traditional clinical education model where local clinical instructors (CIs) focus on the development of clinical skills; (2) a global health model where US-based CIs provide the supervision in the international setting, and learning outcomes emphasized global health and cultural competency; and (3) an ICE/ISL hybrid where US-based CIs supervise the students, and the foci includes community service. Additionally the data supported revising the ISL model's essential core conditions, components and consequence for ICE. The ICE conceptual model may provide a useful framework for future ICE program development and research.

  9. Status of standard model predictions and uncertainties for electroweak observables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniehl, B.A.


    Recent progress in theoretical predictions of electroweak parameters beyond one loop in the standard model is reviewed. The topics include universal corrections of O(G F 2 M H 2 M W 2 ), O(G F 2 m t 4 ), O(α s G F M W 2 ), and those due to virtual t anti t threshold effects, as well as specific corrections to Γ(Z → b anti b) of O(G F 2 m t 4 ), O(α s G F m t 2 ), and O(α s 2 m b 2 /M Z 2 ). An update of the hadronic contributions to Δα is presented. Theoretical uncertainties, other than those due to the lack of knowledge of M H and m t , are estimated. (orig.)

  10. Topography of inland deltas: Observations, modeling, and experiments (United States)

    Seybold, H. J.; Molnar, P.; Akca, D.; Doumi, M.; Cavalcanti Tavares, M.; Shinbrot, T.; Andrade, J. S.; Kinzelbach, W.; Herrmann, H. J.


    The topography of inland deltas is influenced by the water-sediment balance in distributary channels and local evaporation and seepage rates. In this letter a reduced complexity model is applied to simulate inland delta formation, and results are compared with the Okavango Delta, Botswana and with a laboratory experiment. We show that water loss in inland deltas produces fundamentally different dynamics of water and sediment transport than coastal deltas, especially deposition associated with expansion-contraction dynamics at the channel head. These dynamics lead to a systematic decrease in the mean topographic slope of the inland delta with distance from the apex following a power law with exponent α = -0.69 ± 0.02 where the data for both simulation and experiment can be collapsed onto a single curve. In coastal deltas, on the contrary, the slope increases toward the end of the deposition zone.

  11. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F


    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  12. Inverse modelling of European N2O emissions. Assimilating observations from different networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corazza, M.; Bergamaschi, P.; Dentener, F. [European Commission Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, 21027 Ispra (Italy); Vermeulen, A.T.; Popa, E. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, Petten (Netherlands); Aalto, T. [Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI, Helsinki (Finland); Haszpra, L. [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest (Hungary); Meinhardt, F. [Umweltbundesamt UBA, Messstelle Schauinsland, Kirchzarten (Germany); O' Doherty, S. [School of Chemistry, University of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom); Thompson, R. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environment LSCE, Gif sur Yvette (France); Moncrieff, J. [Edinburgh University, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Steinbacher, M. [Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology Empa, Duebendorf (Switzerland); Jordan, A. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany); Dlugokencky, E. [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Monitoring Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Bruehl, C. [Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz (Germany); Krol, M. [Wageningen University and Research Centre WUR, Wageningen (Netherlands)


    We describe the setup and first results of an inverse modelling system for atmospheric N2O, based on a four-dimensional variational (4DVAR) technique and the atmospheric transport zoom model TM5. We focus in this study on the European domain, utilizing a comprehensive set of quasi-continuous measurements over Europe, complemented by N2O measurements from the Earth System Research Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/ESRL) cooperative global air sampling network. Despite ongoing measurement comparisons among networks parallel measurements at a limited number of stations show that significant offsets exist among the different laboratories. Since the spatial gradients of N2O mixing ratios are of the same order of magnitude as these biases, the direct use of these biased datasets would lead to significant errors in the derived emissions. Therefore, in order to also use measurements with unknown offsets, a new bias correction scheme has been implemented within the TM5-4DVAR inverse modelling system, thus allowing the simultaneous assimilation of observations from different networks. The N2O bias corrections determined in the TM5-4DVAR system agree within 0.1 ppb (dry-air mole fraction) with the bias derived from the measurements at monitoring stations where parallel NOAA discrete air samples are available. The N2O emissions derived for the northwest European countries for 2006 show good agreement with the bottom-up emission inventories reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Moreover, the inverse model can significantly narrow the uncertainty range reported in N2O emission inventories, while the lack of measurements does not allow for better emission estimates in southern Europe. Several sensitivity experiments were performed to test the robustness of the results. It is shown that also inversions without detailed a priori spatio-temporal emission distributions are capable to reproduce major

  13. Evaluation of a plot-scale methane emission model using eddy covariance observations and footprint modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Budishchev


    Full Text Available Most plot-scale methane emission models – of which many have been developed in the recent past – are validated using data collected with the closed-chamber technique. This method, however, suffers from a low spatial representativeness and a poor temporal resolution. Also, during a chamber-flux measurement the air within a chamber is separated from the ambient atmosphere, which negates the influence of wind on emissions. Additionally, some methane models are validated by upscaling fluxes based on the area-weighted averages of modelled fluxes, and by comparing those to the eddy covariance (EC flux. This technique is rather inaccurate, as the area of upscaling might be different from the EC tower footprint, therefore introducing significant mismatch. In this study, we present an approach to validate plot-scale methane models with EC observations using the footprint-weighted average method. Our results show that the fluxes obtained by the footprint-weighted average method are of the same magnitude as the EC flux. More importantly, the temporal dynamics of the EC flux on a daily timescale are also captured (r2 = 0.7. In contrast, using the area-weighted average method yielded a low (r2 = 0.14 correlation with the EC measurements. This shows that the footprint-weighted average method is preferable when validating methane emission models with EC fluxes for areas with a heterogeneous and irregular vegetation pattern.

  14. Application of New Chorus Wave Model from Van Allen Probe Observations in Earth's Radiation Belt Modeling (United States)

    Wang, D.; Shprits, Y.; Spasojevic, M.; Zhu, H.; Aseev, N.; Drozdov, A.; Kellerman, A. C.


    In situ satellite observations, theoretical studies and model simulations suggested that chorus waves play a significant role in the dynamic evolution of relativistic electrons in the Earth's radiation belts. In this study, we developed new wave frequency and amplitude models that depend on Magnetic Local Time (MLT)-, L-shell, latitude- and geomagnetic conditions indexed by Kp for upper-band and lower-band chorus waves using measurements from the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science (EMFISIS) instrument onboard the Van Allen Probes. Utilizing the quasi-linear full diffusion code, we calculated corresponding diffusion coefficients in each MLT sector (1 hour resolution) for upper-band and lower-band chorus waves according to the new developed wave models. Compared with former parameterizations of chorus waves, the new parameterizations result in differences in diffusion coefficients that depend on energy and pitch angle. Utilizing obtained diffusion coefficients, lifetime of energetic electrons is parameterized accordingly. In addition, to investigate effects of obtained diffusion coefficients in different MLT sectors and under different geomagnetic conditions, we performed simulations using four-dimensional Versatile Electron Radiation Belt simulations and validated results against observations.

  15. Catapult current sheet relaxation model confirmed by THEMIS observations (United States)

    Machida, S.; Miyashita, Y.; Ieda, A.; Nose, M.; Angelopoulos, V.; McFadden, J. P.


    In this study, we show the result of superposed epoch analysis on the THEMIS probe data during the period from November, 2007 to April, 2009 by setting the origin of time axis to the substorm onset determined by Nishimura with THEMIS all sky imager (THEMS/ASI) data ( We confirmed the presence of earthward flows which can be associated with north-south auroral streamers during the substorm growth phase. At around X = -12 Earth radii (Re), the northward magnetic field and its elevation angle decreased markedly approximately 4 min before substorm onset. A northward magnetic-field increase associated with pre-onset earthward flows was found at around X = -17Re. This variation indicates the occurrence of the local depolarization. Interestingly, in the region earthwards of X = -18Re, earthward flows in the central plasma sheet (CPS) reduced significantly about 3min before substorm onset. However, the earthward flows enhanced again at t = -60 sec in the region around X = -14 Re, and they moved toward the Earth. At t = 0, the dipolarization of the magnetic field started at X ~ -10 Re, and simultaneously the magnetic reconnection started at X ~ -20 Re. Synthesizing these results, we can confirm the validity of our catapult current sheet relaxation model.

  16. Benthic boundary layer. IOS observational and modelling programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saunders, P.M.; Richards, K.J.


    Near bottom currents, measured at three sites in the N.E. Atlantic, reveal the eddying characteristics of the flow. Eddies develop, migrate and decay in ways best revealed by numerical modelling simulations. Eddies control the thickness of the bottom mixed layer by accumulating and thickening or spreading and thinning the bottom waters. At the boundaries of eddies benthic fronts form providing a path for upward displacement of the bottom water. An experiment designed to estimate vertical diffusivity is performed. The flux of heat into the bottom of the Iberian basin through Discovery Gap is deduced from year long current measurements. The flux is supposed balanced by geothermal heating through the sea floor and diapycnal diffusion in the water. A diffusivity of 1.5 to 4 cm 2 s -1 is derived for the bottom few hundred meters of the deep ocean. Experiments to estimate horizontal diffusivity are described. If a tracer is discharged from the sea bed the volume of sea water in which it is found increases with time and after 20 years will fill an ocean basin of side 1000 km to a depth of only 1 to 2 km. (author)

  17. New insights on geomagnetic storms from observations and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordanova, Vania K [Los Alamos National Laboratory


    Understanding the response at Earth of the Sun's varying energy output and forecasting geomagnetic activity is of central interest to space science, since intense geomagnetic storms may cause severe damages on technological systems and affect communications. Episodes of southward (Bzmodel (RAM), and investigate the mechanisms responsible for trapping particles and for causing their loss. We find that periods of increased magnetospheric convection coinciding with enhancements of plasma sheet density are needed for strong ring current buildup. During the HSS-driven storm the convection potential is highly variable and causes small sporadic injections into the ring current. The long period of enhanced convection during the CME-driven storm causes a continuous ring current injection penetrating to lower L shells and stronger ring current buildup.

  18. Enhancing Earth Observation and Modeling for Tsunami Disaster Response and Management (United States)

    Koshimura, Shunichi; Post, Joachim


    In the aftermath of catastrophic natural disasters, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, our society has experienced significant difficulties in assessing disaster impact in the limited amount of time. In recent years, the quality of satellite sensors and access to and use of satellite imagery and services has greatly improved. More and more space agencies have embraced data-sharing policies that facilitate access to archived and up-to-date imagery. Tremendous progress has been achieved through the continuous development of powerful algorithms and software packages to manage and process geospatial data and to disseminate imagery and geospatial datasets in near-real time via geo-web-services, which can be used in disaster-risk management and emergency response efforts. Satellite Earth observations now offer consistent coverage and scope to provide a synoptic overview of large areas, repeated regularly. These can be used to compare risk across different countries, day and night, in all weather conditions, and in trans-boundary areas. On the other hand, with use of modern computing power and advanced sensor networks, the great advances of real-time simulation have been achieved. The data and information derived from satellite Earth observations, integrated with in situ information and simulation modeling provides unique value and the necessary complement to socio-economic data. Emphasis also needs to be placed on ensuring space-based data and information are used in existing and planned national and local disaster risk management systems, together with other data and information sources as a way to strengthen the resilience of communities. Through the case studies of the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami disaster, we aim to discuss how earth observations and modeling, in combination with local, in situ data and information sources, can support the decision-making process before, during and after a disaster strikes.

  19. Improved Analysis of Earth System Models and Observations using Simple Climate Models (United States)

    Nadiga, B. T.; Urban, N. M.


    both ESM experiments and actual observations are presented. One such result points to the importance of direct sequestration of heat below 700 m, a process that is not allowed for in the simple models that have been traditionally used to deduce climate sensitivity.

  20. An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event. (United States)

    Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.


    A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.

  1. Accounting for correlated observations in an age-based state-space stock assessment model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper Willestofte; Nielsen, Anders


    Fish stock assessment models often relyon size- or age-specific observations that are assumed to be statistically independent of each other. In reality, these observations are not raw observations, but rather they are estimates from a catch-standardization model or similar summary statistics based...

  2. The interplay between rheology and pre-existing structures in the lithosphere and its influence on intraplate tectonics: Insights from scaled physical analogue models. (United States)

    Santimano, T. N.; Adiban, P.; Pysklywec, R.


    The primary controls of deformation in the lithosphere are related to its rheological properties. In addition, recent work reveals that inherited zones of weakness in the deep lithosphere are prevalent and can also define tectonic activity. To understand how deformation is genetically related to rheology and/or pre-existing structures, we compare a set of physical analogue models with the presence and absence of a fault in the deep lithosphere. The layered lithosphere scaled models of a brittle upper crust, viscous lower crust and viscous mantle lithosphere are deformed in a convergent setting. Deformation of the model is recorded using high spatial and temporal stereoscopic cameras. We use Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) to acquire a time-series dataset and study the velocity field and subsequently strain in the model. The finished model is also cut into cross-section revealing the finite internal structures that are then compared to the topography of the model. Preliminary results show that deformation in models with an inherited fault in the mantle lithosphere is accommodated by displacement along the fault plane that propagates into the overlying viscous lower crust and brittle upper crust. Here, the majority of the deformation is localized along the fault in a brittle manner. This is in contrast to the model absent of a fault that also displays significant amounts of deformation. In this setting, ductile deformation is accommodated by folding and thickening of the viscous layers and flexural shearing of the brittle upper crust. In these preliminary experiments, the difference in the strength profile between the mantle lithosphere and the lower crust is within the same order of magnitude. Future experiments will include models where the strength difference is an order of magnitude. This systematic study aids in understanding the role of rheology and deep structures particularly in transferring stress over time to the surface and is therefore fundamental in

  3. Generalized Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi model with inhomogeneous isotropic dark energy: Observational constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grande, J.; Perivolaropoulos, L.


    We consider on-center and off-center observers in an inhomogeneous, spherically symmetric, isocurvature (flat) concentration of dark energy with a typical size of a few Gpc. Such a concentration could be produced e.g. by a recently formed global monopole with core size that approaches the Hubble scale. In this case we would have what may be called ''topological quintessence'' in analogy with the well-known topological inflation. We show that the minimum comoving radius r 0min of such a dark energy inhomogeneity that is consistent with the Union2 type Ia supernovae data at the 3σ level is r 0min ≅1.8 Gpc. As expected, the best-fit fractional dark energy density at the center, Ω X,in , approaches the corresponding ΛCDM value Ω X,in =0.73 for large enough values of the inhomogeneity radius r 0 (r 0 >4 Gpc). Using the Union2 data, we show that the maximum allowed shift r obs-max of the observer from the center of the inhomogeneity is about 0.7r 0 , which respects the Copernican principle. The model naturally predicts the existence of a preferred axis and alignment of the low CMB multipoles. However, the constraints on r obs-max coming from the magnitude of the CMB dipole remain a severe challenge to the Copernican principle and lead to r obs-max 0 =7 Gpc.

  4. ANN Model for Predicting the Impact of Submerged Aquatic Weeds Existence on the Hydraulic Performance of Branched Open Channel System Accompanied by Water Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdeen, Mostafa A. M.; Abdin, Alla E.


    The existence of hydraulic structures in a branched open channel system urges the need for considering the gradually varied flow criterion in evaluating the different hydraulic characteristics in this type of open channel system. Computations of hydraulic characteristics such as flow rates and water surface profiles in branched open channel system with hydraulic structures require tremendous numerical effort especially when the flow cannot be assumed uniform. In addition, the existence of submerged aquatic weeds in this branched open channel system adds to the complexity of the evaluation of the different hydraulic characteristics for this system. However, this existence of aquatic weeds can not be neglected since it is very common in Egyptian open channel systems. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been widely utilized in the past decade in civil engineering applications for the simulation and prediction of the different physical phenomena and has proven its capabilities in the different fields. The present study aims towards introducing the use of ANN technique to model and predict the impact of submerged aquatic weeds existence on the hydraulic performance of branched open channel system. Specifically the current paper investigates a branched open channel system that consists of main channel supplies water to two branch channels that are infested by submerged aquatic weeds and have water structures such as clear over fall weirs and sluice gates. The results of this study showed that ANN technique was capable, with small computational effort and high accuracy, of predicting the impact of different infestation percentage for submerged aquatic weeds on the hydraulic performance of branched open channel system with two different hydraulic structures

  5. Generalised linear models for correlated pseudo-observations, with applications to multi-state models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Klein, John P.; Rosthøj, Susanne


    Generalised estimating equation; Generalised linear model; Jackknife pseudo-value; Logistic regression; Markov Model; Multi-state model......Generalised estimating equation; Generalised linear model; Jackknife pseudo-value; Logistic regression; Markov Model; Multi-state model...

  6. Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: a systematic review. (United States)

    Wingbermühle, Roel W; van Trijffel, Emiel; Nelissen, Paul M; Koes, Bart; Verhagen, Arianne P


    Which multivariable prognostic model(s) for recovery in people with neck pain can be used in primary care? Systematic review of studies evaluating multivariable prognostic models. People with non-specific neck pain presenting at primary care. Baseline characteristics of the participants. Recovery measured as pain reduction, reduced disability, or perceived recovery at short-term and long-term follow-up. Fifty-three publications were included, of which 46 were derivation studies, four were validation studies, and three concerned combined studies. The derivation studies presented 99 multivariate models, all of which were at high risk of bias. Three externally validated models generated usable models in low risk of bias studies. One predicted recovery in non-specific neck pain, while two concerned participants with whiplash-associated disorders (WAD). Discriminative ability of the non-specific neck pain model was area under the curve (AUC) 0.65 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.71). For the first WAD model, discriminative ability was AUC 0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91). For the second WAD model, specificity was 99% (95% CI 93 to 100) and sensitivity was 44% (95% CI 23 to 65) for prediction of non-recovery, and 86% (95% CI 73 to 94) and 55% (95% CI 41 to 69) for prediction of recovery, respectively. Initial Neck Disability Index scores and age were identified as consistent prognostic factors in these three models. Three externally validated models were found to be usable and to have low risk of bias, of which two showed acceptable discriminative properties for predicting recovery in people with neck pain. These three models need further validation and evaluation of their clinical impact before their broad clinical use can be advocated. PROSPERO CRD42016042204. [Wingbermühle RW, van Trijffel E, Nelissen PM, Koes B, Verhagen AP (2018) Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: a systematic review

  7. An integrative neural model of social perception, action observation, and theory of mind (United States)

    Yang, Daniel Y.-J.; Rosenblau, Gabriela; Keifer, Cara; Pelphrey, Kevin A.


    In the field of social neuroscience, major branches of research have been instrumental in describing independent components of typical and aberrant social information processing, but the field as a whole lacks a comprehensive model that integrates different branches. We review existing research related to the neural basis of three key neural systems underlying social information processing: social perception, action observation, and theory of mind. We propose an integrative model that unites these three processes and highlights the posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), which plays a central role in all three systems. Furthermore, we integrate these neural systems with the dual system account of implicit and explicit social information processing. Large-scale meta-analyses based on Neurosynth confirmed that the pSTS is at the intersection of the three neural systems. Resting-state functional connectivity analysis with 1000 subjects confirmed that the pSTS is connected to all other regions in these systems. The findings presented in this review are specifically relevant for psychiatric research especially disorders characterized by social deficits such as autism spectrum disorder. PMID:25660957

  8. Developing a foundation for eco-epidemiological assessment of aquatic ecological status over large geographic regions utilizing existing data resources and models. (United States)

    Kapo, Katherine E; Holmes, Christopher M; Dyer, Scott D; de Zwart, Dick; Posthuma, Leo


    Eco-epidemiological studies utilizing existing monitoring program data provide a cost-effective means to bridge the gap between the ecological status and chemical status of watersheds and to develop hypotheses of stressor attribution that can influence the design of higher-tier assessments and subsequent management. The present study describes the process of combining existing data and models to develop a robust starting point for eco-epidemiological analyses of watersheds over large geographic scales. Data resources from multiple federal and local agencies representing a range of biological, chemical, physical, toxicological, and other landscape factors across the state of Ohio, USA (2000-2007), were integrated with the National Hydrography Dataset Plus hydrologic model (US Environmental Protection Agency and US Geological Survey). A variety of variable reduction, selection, and optimization strategies were applied to develop eco-epidemiological data sets for fish and macroinvertebrate communities. The relative importance of landscape variables was compared across spatial scales (local catchment, watershed, near-stream) using conditional inference forests to determine the scales most relevant to variation in biological community condition. Conditional inference forest analysis applied to a holistic set of environmental variables yielded stressor-response hypotheses at the statewide and eco-regional levels. The analysis confirmed the dominant influence of state-level stressors such as physical habitat condition, while highlighting differences in predictive strength of other stressors based on ecoregional and land-use characteristics. This exercise lays the groundwork for subsequent work designed to move closer to causal inference. © 2014 SETAC.

  9. Existence of dark matter with observed properties of cosmic microwave background radiation substantiates three conservation laws of classical physics and all principles of quantum mechanics as creates the value of Planck’s constant (United States)

    Boriev, I. A.


    Astronomical data indicate a presence of dark matter (DM) in the space, what is necessary for explanation of observed dynamics of the galaxies within Newtonian mechanics. DM, at its very low density (∼10-26kg/m3), constitutes main part of the matter in the Universe, 10 times the mass of all visible cosmic bodies. No doubt, namely properties of DM, which fills space, must determine its physical properties and fundamental physical laws. Taking into account observed properties of cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR), whose energy is ∼90% of all cosmic radiation, and understanding that this radiation is produced by DM motion, conservation laws of classical physics and principles of quantum mechanics receive their materialistic substantiation. Thus, CMBR high homogeneity and isotropy (∼10-4), and hence the same properties of DM (and space) justify momentum and angular momentum conservation laws, respectively, according to E. Noether's theorems. CMBR has black body spectrum at ∼2.7K with maximum wavelength ∼1.9·10-3m, what allows calculate the value of mechanical action produced by DM thermal motion (∼7·10-34 J·s). This value corresponds well to the Planck’s constant, which is the mechanical action too, what gives materialistic basis for all principles of quantum mechanics. Obtained results directly confirm the reality of DM existence, and show that CMBR is an observed display of DM thermal motion. Understanding that namely from DM occur known creation of electron-positron pairs as contrarily rotating material vortexes (according to their spins) let substantiate positron nature of ball lightning what first explains all its observed specific properties.

  10. Observed and modeled seasonal trends in dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in a mining-impacted stream. (United States)

    Butler, Barbara A; Ranville, James F; Ross, Philippe E


    North Fork Clear Creek (NFCC) in Colorado, an acid-mine drainage (AMD) impacted stream, was chosen to examine the distribution of dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in the water column, with respect to seasonal hydrologic controls. NFCC is a high-gradient stream with discharge directly related to snowmelt and strong seasonal storms. Additionally, conditions in the stream cause rapid precipitation of large amounts of hydrous iron oxides (HFO) that sequester metals. Because AMD-impacted systems are complex, geochemical modeling may assist with predictions and/or confirmations of processes occurring in these environments. This research used Visual-MINTEQ to determine if field data collected over a two and one-half year study would be well represented by modeling with a currently existing model, while limiting the number of processes modeled and without modifications to the existing model's parameters. Observed distributions between dissolved and particulate phases in the water column varied greatly among the metals, with average dissolved fractions being >90% for Mn, approximately 75% for Zn, approximately 30% for Cu, and seasonal trend was observed for the metals predominantly in the dissolved phase (Mn and Zn), with increasing concentrations during base-flow conditions and decreasing concentrations during spring-runoff. This trend was less obvious for Cu and Fe. Within hydrologic seasons, storm events significantly influenced in-stream metals concentrations. The most simplified modeling, using solely sorption to HFO, gave predicted percentage particulate Cu results for most samples to within a factor of two of the measured values, but modeling data were biased toward over-prediction. About one-half of the percentage particulate Zn data comparisons fell within a factor of two, with the remaining data being under-predicted. Slightly more complex modeling, which included dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as a solution phase ligand, significantly reduced the

  11. Modeling and Monitoring Terrestrial Primary Production in a Changing Global Environment: Toward a Multiscale Synthesis of Observation and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shufen Pan


    Full Text Available There is a critical need to monitor and predict terrestrial primary production, the key indicator of ecosystem functioning, in a changing global environment. Here we provide a brief review of three major approaches to monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production: (1 ground-based field measurements, (2 satellite-based observations, and (3 process-based ecosystem modelling. Much uncertainty exists in the multi-approach estimations of terrestrial gross primary production (GPP and net primary production (NPP. To improve the capacity of model simulation and prediction, it is essential to evaluate ecosystem models against ground and satellite-based measurements and observations. As a case, we have shown the performance of the dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM at various scales from site to region to global. We also discuss how terrestrial primary production might respond to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 and uncertainties associated with model and data. Further progress in monitoring and predicting terrestrial primary production requires a multiscale synthesis of observations and model simulations. In the Anthropocene era in which human activity has indeed changed the Earth’s biosphere, therefore, it is essential to incorporate the socioeconomic component into terrestrial ecosystem models for accurately estimating and predicting terrestrial primary production in a changing global environment.

  12. Warm and cold molecular gas conditions modeled in 87 galaxies observed by the Herschel SPIRE FTS (United States)

    Kamenetzky, Julia; Rangwala, Naseem; Glenn, Jason


    Molecular gas is the raw material for star formation, and like the interstellar medium (ISM) in general, it can exist in regions of higher and lower excitation. Rotational transitions of the CO molecule are bright and sensitive to cold molecular gas. While the majority of the molecular gas exists in the very cold component traced by CO J=1-0, the higher-J lines trace the highly excited gas that may be more indicative of star formation processes. The atmosphere is opaque to these lines, but the launch of the Herschel Space Observatory made them accessible for study of Galactic and extragalactic sources. We have conducted two-component, non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) modeling of the CO lines from J=1‑0 through J=13‑12 in 87 galaxies observed by the Herschel SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). We used the nested sampling algorithm Multinest to compare the measured CO spectral line energy distributions (SLEDs) to the ones produced by a custom version of the non-LTE code RADEX. This allowed us to fully examine the degeneracies in parameter space for kinetic temperature, molecular gas density, CO column density, and area filling factor.Here we discuss the major findings of our study, as well as the important implications of two-component molecular gas modeling. The average pressure of the warm gas is slightly correlated with galaxy LFIR, but that of the cold gas is not. A high-J (such as J=11-10) to J=1-0 line ratio is diagnostic of warm component pressure. We find a very large spread in our derived values of "alpha-CO," with no discernable trend with LFIR, and average molecular gas depletion times that decrease with LFIR. If only a few molecular lines are available in a galaxy's SLED, the limited ability to model only one component will change the results. A one-component fit often underestimates the flux of carbon monoxide (CO) J=1‑0 and the mass. If low-J lines are not included, mass is underestimated by an order of magnitude. Even when

  13. Requirements for existing buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund; Wittchen, Kim Bjarne

    This report collects energy performance requirements for existing buildings in European member states by June 2012.......This report collects energy performance requirements for existing buildings in European member states by June 2012....

  14. Greening Existing Tribal Buildings (United States)

    Guidance about improving sustainability in existing tribal casinos and manufactured homes. Many steps can be taken to make existing buildings greener and healthier. They may also reduce utility and medical costs.

  15. Reconciling laboratory and observational models of mantle rheology in geodynamic modelling (United States)

    King, Scott D.


    Experimental and geophysical observations constraining mantle rheology are reviewed with an emphasis on their impact on mantle geodynamic modelling. For olivine, the most studied and best-constrained mantle mineral, the tradeoffs associated with the uncertainties in the activation energy, activation volume, grain-size and water content allow the construction of upper mantle rheology models ranging from nearly uniform with depth to linearly increasing from the base of the lithosphere to the top of the transition zone. Radial rheology models derived from geophysical observations allow for either a weak upper mantle or a weak transition zone. Experimental constraints show that wadsleyite and ringwoodite are stronger than olivine at the top of the transition zone; however the uncertainty in the concentration of water in the transition zone precludes ruling out a weak transition zone. Both observational and experimental constraints allow for strong or weak slabs and the most promising constraints on slab rheology may come from comparing inferred slab geometry from seismic tomography with systematic studies of slab morphology from dynamic models. Experimental constraints on perovskite and ferropericlase strength are consistent with general feature of rheology models derived from geophysical observations and suggest that the increase in viscosity through the top of the upper mantle could be due to the increase in the strength of ferropericlase from 20-65 GPa. The decrease in viscosity in the bottom half of the lower mantle could be the result of approaching the melting temperature of perovskite. Both lines of research are consistent with a high-viscosity lithosphere, a low viscosity either in the upper mantle or transition zone, and high viscosity in the lower mantle, increasing through the upper half of the lower mantle and decreasing in the bottom half of the lower mantle, with a low viscosity above the core. Significant regions of the mantle, including high

  16. Enhanced online model identification and state of charge estimation for lithium-ion battery with a FBCRLS based observer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Zhongbao; Meng, Shujuan; Xiong, Binyu; Ji, Dongxu; Tseng, King Jet


    Highlights: • Integrated online model identification and SOC estimate is explored. • Noise variances are online estimated in a data-driven way. • Identification bias caused by noise corruption is attenuated. • SOC is online estimated with high accuracy and fast convergence. • Algorithm comparison shows the superiority of proposed method. - Abstract: State of charge (SOC) estimators with online identified battery model have proven to have high accuracy and better robustness due to the timely adaption of time varying model parameters. In this paper, we show that the common methods for model identification are intrinsically biased if both the current and voltage sensors are corrupted with noises. The uncertainties in battery model further degrade the accuracy and robustness of SOC estimate. To address this problem, this paper proposes a novel technique which integrates the Frisch scheme based bias compensating recursive least squares (FBCRLS) with a SOC observer for enhanced model identification and SOC estimate. The proposed method online estimates the noise statistics and compensates the noise effect so that the model parameters can be extracted without bias. The SOC is further estimated in real time with the online updated and unbiased battery model. Simulation and experimental studies show that the proposed FBCRLS based observer effectively attenuates the bias on model identification caused by noise contamination and as a consequence provides more reliable estimate on SOC. The proposed method is also compared with other existing methods to highlight its superiority in terms of accuracy and convergence speed.

  17. Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Meng


    Full Text Available Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources are still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011 into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model, because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations, and thus we do not use CLM4-simulated hydrology to predict inundated areas. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid-cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1 (including the soil sink and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78% of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. However, sensitivity studies show a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1 in predicted global methane emissions (excluding emissions from rice paddies. The large range is

  18. Simultaneous Estimation of Model State Variables and Observation and Forecast Biases Using a Two-Stage Hybrid Kalman Filter (United States)

    Pauwels, V. R. N.; DeLannoy, G. J. M.; Hendricks Franssen, H.-J.; Vereecken, H.


    In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

  19. Simultaneous estimation of model state variables and observation and forecast biases using a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. R. N. Pauwels


    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a two-stage hybrid Kalman filter to estimate both observation and forecast bias in hydrologic models, in addition to state variables. The biases are estimated using the discrete Kalman filter, and the state variables using the ensemble Kalman filter. A key issue in this multi-component assimilation scheme is the exact partitioning of the difference between observation and forecasts into state, forecast bias and observation bias updates. Here, the error covariances of the forecast bias and the unbiased states are calculated as constant fractions of the biased state error covariance, and the observation bias error covariance is a function of the observation prediction error covariance. In a series of synthetic experiments, focusing on the assimilation of discharge into a rainfall-runoff model, it is shown that both static and dynamic observation and forecast biases can be successfully estimated. The results indicate a strong improvement in the estimation of the state variables and resulting discharge as opposed to the use of a bias-unaware ensemble Kalman filter. Furthermore, minimal code modification in existing data assimilation software is needed to implement the method. The results suggest that a better performance of data assimilation methods should be possible if both forecast and observation biases are taken into account.

  20. Updating flood maps efficiently using existing hydraulic models, very-high-accuracy elevation data, and a geographic information system; a pilot study on the Nisqually River, Washington (United States)

    Jones, Joseph L.; Haluska, Tana L.; Kresch, David L.


    A method of updating flood inundation maps at a fraction of the expense of using traditional methods was piloted in Washington State as part of the U.S. Geological Survey Urban Geologic and Hydrologic Hazards Initiative. Large savings in expense may be achieved by building upon previous Flood Insurance Studies and automating the process of flood delineation with a Geographic Information System (GIS); increases in accuracy and detail result from the use of very-high-accuracy elevation data and automated delineation; and the resulting digital data sets contain valuable ancillary information such as flood depth, as well as greatly facilitating map storage and utility. The method consists of creating stage-discharge relations from the archived output of the existing hydraulic model, using these relations to create updated flood stages for recalculated flood discharges, and using a GIS to automate the map generation process. Many of the effective flood maps were created in the late 1970?s and early 1980?s, and suffer from a number of well recognized deficiencies such as out-of-date or inaccurate estimates of discharges for selected recurrence intervals, changes in basin characteristics, and relatively low quality elevation data used for flood delineation. FEMA estimates that 45 percent of effective maps are over 10 years old (FEMA, 1997). Consequently, Congress has mandated the updating and periodic review of existing maps, which have cost the Nation almost 3 billion (1997) dollars. The need to update maps and the cost of doing so were the primary motivations for piloting a more cost-effective and efficient updating method. New technologies such as Geographic Information Systems and LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation mapping are key to improving the efficiency of flood map updating, but they also improve the accuracy, detail, and usefulness of the resulting digital flood maps. GISs produce digital maps without manual estimation of inundated areas between

  1. Predicting detection performance with model observers: Fourier domain or spatial domain? (United States)

    Chen, Baiyu; Yu, Lifeng; Leng, Shuai; Kofler, James; Favazza, Christopher; Vrieze, Thomas; McCollough, Cynthia


    The use of Fourier domain model observer is challenged by iterative reconstruction (IR), because IR algorithms are nonlinear and IR images have noise texture different from that of FBP. A modified Fourier domain model observer, which incorporates nonlinear noise and resolution properties, has been proposed for IR and needs to be validated with human detection performance. On the other hand, the spatial domain model observer is theoretically applicable to IR, but more computationally intensive than the Fourier domain method. The purpose of this study is to compare the modified Fourier domain model observer to the spatial domain model observer with both FBP and IR images, using human detection performance as the gold standard. A phantom with inserts of various low contrast levels and sizes was repeatedly scanned 100 times on a third-generation, dual-source CT scanner at 5 dose levels and reconstructed using FBP and IR algorithms. The human detection performance of the inserts was measured via a 2-alternative-forced-choice (2AFC) test. In addition, two model observer performances were calculated, including a Fourier domain non-prewhitening model observer and a spatial domain channelized Hotelling observer. The performance of these two mode observers was compared in terms of how well they correlated with human observer performance. Our results demonstrated that the spatial domain model observer correlated well with human observers across various dose levels, object contrast levels, and object sizes. The Fourier domain observer correlated well with human observers using FBP images, but overestimated the detection performance using IR images.

  2. Disturbance observer-based L1 robust tracking control for hypersonic vehicles with T-S disturbance modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yi


    Full Text Available This article concerns a disturbance observer-based L1 robust anti-disturbance tracking algorithm for the longitudinal models of hypersonic flight vehicles with different kinds of unknown disturbances. On one hand, by applying T-S fuzzy models to represent those modeled disturbances, a disturbance observer relying on T-S disturbance models can be constructed to track the dynamics of exogenous disturbances. On the other hand, L1 index is introduced to analyze the attenuation performance of disturbance for those unmodeled disturbances. By utilizing the existing convex optimization algorithm, a disturbance observer-based proportional-integral-controlled input is proposed such that the stability of hypersonic flight vehicles can be ensured and the tracking error for velocity and altitude in hypersonic flight vehicle models can converge to equilibrium point. Furthermore, the satisfactory disturbance rejection and attenuation with L1 index can be obtained simultaneously. Simulation results on hypersonic flight vehicle models can reflect the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm.

  3. A Study of the Carbon Cycle Using NASA Observations and the GEOS Model (United States)

    Pawson, Steven; Gelaro, Ron; Ott, Lesley; Putman, Bill; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Koster, Randy; Lee, Eunjee; Oda, Tom; Weir, Brad; Zeng, Fanwei


    The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model has been developed in the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. From its roots in chemical transport and as a General Circulation Model, the GEOS model has been extended to an Earth System Model based on a modular construction using the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF), combining elements developed in house in the GMAO with others that are imported through collaborative research. It is used extensively for research and for product generation, both as a free-running model and as the core of the GMAO's data assimilation system. In recent years, the GMAO's modeling and assimilation efforts have been strongly supported by Piers Sellers, building on both his earlier legacy as an observationally oriented model developer and his post-astronaut career as a dynamic leader into new territory. Piers' long-standing interest in the carbon cycle and the combination of models with observations motivates this presentation, which will focus on the representation of the carbon cycle in the GEOS Earth System Model. Examples will include: (i) the progression from specified land-atmosphere surface fluxes to computations with an interactive model component (Catchment-CN), along with constraints on vegetation distributions using satellite observations; (ii) the use of high-resolution satellite observations to constrain human-generated inputs to the atmosphere; (iii) studies of the consistency of the observed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations with those in the model simulations. The presentation will focus on year-to-year variations in elements of the carbon cycle, specifically on how the observations can inform the representation of mechanisms in the model and lead to integrity in global carbon dioxide simulations. Further, applications of the GEOS model to the planning of new carbon-climate observations will be addressed, as an example of the work that was strongly supported by

  4. New Magnetic Field Model for Saturn From Cassini Radio and Magnetometers Observations: The Birotor Dipole (United States)

    Galopeau, P. H. M.


    Since the insertion of Cassini in the Saturnian system in July 2004, the radio and plasma wave science (RPWS) experiment on board the spacecraft revealed the presence of two distinct and variable rotation periods in the Saturnian kilometric radiation (SKR) which were attributed to the northern and southern hemispheres respectively. The present study is based on the hypothesis that the periodic time modulations present in the SKR are mainly due to the rotation of Saturn's inner magnetic field. The existence of a double period implies that the inner field is not only limited to a simple rotation dipole but displays more complex structures having the same time periodicities than the radio emission. In order to build a model of this complex magnetic field, it is absolutely necessary to know the accurate phases of rotation linked with the two periods. The radio observations from the RPWS experiment allow a continuous and accurate follow-up of these rotation phases, since the SKR emission is permanently observable and produced very close to the planetary surface. A continuous wavelet transform analysis of the intensity of the SKR signal received at 290 kHz between July 2004 and June 2012 was performed in order to calculate in the same time the different periodicities and phases. The rotation phases associated to the main two periods allow us to define a North and South longitude system essential for such a study. In this context, a dipole model ("birotor dipole") was proposed for Saturn's inner magnetic field: this dipole presents the particularity to have North and South poles rotating around Saturn's axis at two different angular velocities; this dipole is tilted and not centered. 57 Cassini's revolutions, the periapsis of which is less than 5 Saturnian radii, have been selected for this study. For each of these chosen orbits, it is possible to fit with high precision the measurements of the MAG data experiment given by the magnetometers embarked on board Cassini. A

  5. Novel and existing data for a future physiological toxicokinetic model of ethylene and its metabolite ethylene oxide in mouse, rat, and human. (United States)

    Filser, Johannes Georg; Artati, Anna; Li, Qiang; Pütz, Christian; Semder, Brigitte; Klein, Dominik; Kessler, Winfried


    The olefin ethylene is a ubiquitously found gas. It originates predominantly from plants, combustion processes and industrial sources. In mammals, inhaled ethylene is metabolized by cytochrome P450-dependent monooxygenases, particularly by cytochrome P450 2E1, to ethylene oxide, an epoxide that directly alkylates proteins and DNA. Ethylene oxide was mutagenic in vitro and in vivo in insects and mammals and carcinogenic in rats and mice. A physiological toxicokinetic model is a most useful tool for estimating the ethylene oxide burden in ethylene-exposed rodents and humans. The only published physiological toxicokinetic model for ethylene and metabolically produced ethylene oxide is discussed. Additionally, existing data required for the development of a future model and for testing its predictive accuracy are reviewed and extended by new gas uptake studies with ethylene and ethylene oxide in B6C3F1 mice and with ethylene in F344 rats. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. A comprehensive study on rotation reversal in KSTAR: experimental observations and modelling (United States)

    Na, D. H.; Na, Yong-Su; Angioni, C.; Yang, S. M.; Kwon, J. M.; Jhang, Hogun; Camenen, Y.; Lee, S. G.; Shi, Y. J.; Ko, W. H.; Lee, J. A.; Hahm, T. S.; KSTAR Team


    Dedicated experiments have been performed in KSTAR Ohmic plasmas to investigate the detailed physics of the rotation reversal phenomena. Here we adapt the more general definition of rotation reversal, a large change of the intrinsic toroidal rotation gradient produced by minor changes in the control parameters (Camenen et al 2017 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 59 034001), which is commonly observed in KSTAR regardless of the operating conditions. The two main phenomenological features of the rotation reversal are the normalized toroidal rotation gradient ({{u}\\prime} ) change in the gradient region and the existence of an anchor point. For the KSTAR Ohmic plasma database including the experiment results up to the 2016 experimental campaign, both features were investigated. First, the observations show that the locations of the gradient and the anchor point region are dependent on {{q}95} . Second, a strong dependence of {{u}\\prime} on {νeff} is clearly observed in the gradient region, whereas the dependence on R/{{L}{{Ti}}} , R/{{L}{{Te}}} , and R/{{L}{{ne}}} is unclear considering the usual variation of the normalized gradient length in KSTAR. The experimental observations were compared against several theoretical models. The rotation reversal might not occur due to the transition of the dominant turbulence from the trapped electron mode to the ion temperature gradient mode or the neoclassical equilibrium effect in KSTAR. Instead, it seems that the profile shearing effects associated with a finite ballooning tilting well reproduce the experimental observations of both the gradient region and the anchor point; the difference seems to be related to the magnetic shear and the q value. Further analysis implies that the increase of {{u}\\prime} in the gradient region with the increase of the collisionality would occur when the reduction of the momentum diffusivity is comparatively larger than the reduction of the residual stress. It is supported by the perturbative

  7. Fusing Observations and Model Results for Creation of Enhanced Ozone Spatial Fields: Comparison of Three Techniques (United States)

    This paper presents three simple techniques for fusing observations and numerical model predictions. The techniques rely on model/observation bias being considered either as error free, or containing some uncertainty, the latter mitigated with a Kalman filter approach or a spati...

  8. Observations and modeling of the diurnal SST cycle in the North and Baltic Seas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karagali, Ioanna; Høyer, J.L.


    do not exceed 0.25 K, with a maximum standard deviation of 0.76 and a 0.45 correlation. When random noise is added to the models, their ability to reproduce the statistical properties of the SEVIRI observations improves. The correlation between the observed and modeled anomalies and different...

  9. Observation and modelling of main-sequence star chromospheres - XIX. FIES and FEROS observations of dM1 stars (United States)

    Houdebine, E. R.; Butler, C. J.; Garcia-Alvarez, D.; Telting, J.


    We present 187 high-resolution spectra for 62 different M1 dwarfs from observations obtained with the FIbre-fed Echelle Spectrograph (FIES) on the Nordic Optical Telescope (NOT) and from observations with the Fibre-fed Extended Range Echelle Spectrograph (FEROS) from the European Southern Observatory (ESO) data base. We also compiled other measurements available in the literature. We observed two stars, Gl 745A and Gl 745B, with no Ca II line core emission and Hα line equivalent widths (EWs) of only 0.171 and 0.188 Å, respectively. We also observed another very low activity M1 dwarf, Gl 63, with an Hα line EW of only 0.199 Å. These are the lowest activity M dwarfs ever observed and are of particular interest for the non-local thermodynamic equilibrium radiative transfer modelling of M1 dwarfs. Thanks to the high signal-to-noise ratio of most of our spectra, we were able to measure the Ca II H&K full width at half-maximum (FWHM) for most of our stars. We find good correlations between the FWHM values and the mean Ca II line EW for dM1 stars. Then the FWHM seems to saturate for dM1e stars. Our previous models of M1 dwarfs can reproduce the FWHM for dM1e stars and the most active dM1 stars, but fail to reproduce the observations of lower activity M1 dwarfs. We believe this is due to an effect of metallicity. We also investigate the dependence of the Hα line FWHM as a function of its EW. We find that the models globally agree with the observations including subwarfs, but tend to produce too narrow profiles for dM1e stars. We re-investigate the correlation between the Ca II line mean EW and the absolute magnitude. With our new data that notably include several M1 subdwarfs, we find a slightly different and better correlation with a slope of -0.779 instead of -0.909. We also re-investigate the variations of the Hα line EW as a function of radius and find that the EW increases continuously with increasing radius. This confirms our previous finding that the level of

  10. Improved hydrological modeling for remote regions using a combination of observed and simulated precipitation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Linden, Sandra; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg


    Precipitation, as simulated by climate models, can be used as input in hydrological models, despite possible biases both in the total annual amount simulated as well as the seasonal variation. Here we elaborated on a new technique, which adjusted precipitation data generated by a high......-resolution regional climate model (HIRHAM4) with a mean-field bias correction using observed precipitation. A hydrological model (USAFLOW) was applied to simulate runoff using observed precipitation and a combination of observed and simulated precipitation as input. The method was illustrated for the remote Usa basin......, situated in the European part of Arctic Russia, close to the Ural Mountains. It was shown that runoff simulations agree better with observations when the combined precipitation data set was used than when only observed precipitation was used. This appeared to be because the HIRHAM4 model data compensated...

  11. Global lihospheric magnetizatin model validated and refined using new satellite observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Purucker, M.E; Langlais, B.; Hulot, G.

    The first fully consistent physically motivatetd global earth model is compared with Orsted satellite observations. The correspondence between those observations and the model suggests that it is a good description of first-order magnetic features. We illustrate how the model can be modified to b...... to better fit the observations. Interpretation of the map over North America suggests that the large total field anomaly centered over Kentucky defines the southeast edge of a cold thick magnetic slab rather than representing an area of enhanced magnetization as in previous models....

  12. LTE modeling of inhomogeneous chromospheric structure using high-resolution limb observations (United States)

    Lindsey, C.


    The paper discusses considerations relevant to LTE modeling of rough atmospheres. Particular attention is given to the application of recent high-resolution observations of the solar limb in the far-infrared and radio continuum to the modeling of chromospheric spicules. It is explained how the continuum limb observations can be combined with morphological knowledge of spicule structure to model the physical conditions in chromospheric spicules. This discussion forms the basis for a chromospheric model presented in a parallel publication based on observations ranging from 100 microns to 2.6 mm.

  13. Consistently modeling the same movement strategy is more important than model skill level in observational learning contexts. (United States)

    Buchanan, John J; Dean, Noah


    The experiment undertaken was designed to elucidate the impact of model skill level on observational learning processes. The task was bimanual circle tracing with a 90° relative phase lead of one hand over the other hand. Observer groups watched videos of either an instruction model, a discovery model, or a skilled model. The instruction and skilled model always performed the task with the same movement strategy, the right-arm traced clockwise and the left-arm counterclockwise around circle templates with the right-arm leading. The discovery model used several movement strategies (tracing-direction/hand-lead) during practice. Observation of the instruction and skilled model provided a significant benefit compared to the discovery model when performing the 90° relative phase pattern in a post-observation test. The observers of the discovery model had significant room for improvement and benefited from post-observation practice of the 90° pattern. The benefit of a model is found in the consistency with which that model uses the same movement strategy, and not within the skill level of the model. It is the consistency in strategy modeled that allows observers to develop an abstract perceptual representation of the task that can be implemented into a coordinated action. Theoretically, the results show that movement strategy information (relative motion direction, hand lead) and relative phase information can be detected through visual perception processes and be successfully mapped to outgoing motor commands within an observational learning context. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Modelling Niche Differentiation of Co-Existing, Elusive and Morphologically Similar Species: A Case Study of Four Macaque Species in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area, Laos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille N. Z. Coudrat


    Full Text Available Species misidentification often occurs when dealing with co-existing and morphologically similar species such as macaques, making the study of their ecology challenging. To overcome this issue, we use reliable occurrence data from camera-trap images and transect survey data to model their respective ecological niche and potential distribution locally in Nakai-Nam Theun National Protected Area (NNT NPA, central-Eastern Laos. We investigate niche differentiation of morphologically similar species using four sympatric macaque species in NNT NPA, as our model species: rhesus Macaca mulatta (Taxonomic Serial Number, TSN 180099, Northern pig-tailed M. leonina (TSN not listed; Assamese M. assamensis (TSN 573018 and stump-tailed M. arctoides (TSN 573017. We examine the implications for their conservation. We obtained occurrence data of macaque species from systematic 2006–2011 camera-trapping surveys and 2011–2012 transect surveys and model their niche and potential distribution with MaxEnt software using 25 environmental and topographic variables. The respective suitable habitat predicted for each species reveals niche segregation between the four species with a gradual geographical distribution following an environmental gradient within the study area. Camera-trapping positioned at many locations can increase elusive-species records with a relatively reduced and more systematic sampling effort and provide reliable species occurrence data. These can be used for environmental niche modelling to study niche segregation of morphologically similar species in areas where their distribution remains uncertain. Examining unresolved species' niches and potential distributions can have crucial implications for future research and species' management and conservation even in the most remote regions and for the least-known species.

  15. INEEL Subregional Conceptual Model Report Volume 2: Summary of Existing Knowledge of Geochemical Influences on the Fate and Transport of Contaminants in the Subsurface at the INEEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paul L. Wichlacz; Robert C. Starr; Brennon Orr


    . The documents that appeared to be the most pertinent were selected from further review. These documents are tabulated in the citation list. This report summarizes existing geochemical conceptual models, but does not attempt to generate a new conceptual model or select the ''right'' model. This document is organized as follows. Geochemical models are described in general in Section 2. Geochemical processes that control the transport and fate of contaminants introduced into groundwater are described in Section 3. The natural geochemistry of the Eastern Snake River Plain Aquifer (SRPA) is described in Section 4. The effect of waste disposal on the INEEL subsurface is described in Section 5. The geochemical behavior of the major contaminants is described in Section 6. Section 7 describes the site-specific geochemical models developed for various INEEL facilities.

  16. A simple parametric model observer for quality assurance in computer tomography (United States)

    Anton, M.; Khanin, A.; Kretz, T.; Reginatto, M.; Elster, C.


    Model observers are mathematical classifiers that are used for the quality assessment of imaging systems such as computer tomography. The quality of the imaging system is quantified by means of the performance of a selected model observer. For binary classification tasks, the performance of the model observer is defined by the area under its ROC curve (AUC). Typically, the AUC is estimated by applying the model observer to a large set of training and test data. However, the recording of these large data sets is not always practical for routine quality assurance. In this paper we propose as an alternative a parametric model observer that is based on a simple phantom, and we provide a Bayesian estimation of its AUC. It is shown that a limited number of repeatedly recorded images (10–15) is already sufficient to obtain results suitable for the quality assessment of an imaging system. A MATLAB® function is provided for the calculation of the results. The performance of the proposed model observer is compared to that of the established channelized Hotelling observer and the nonprewhitening matched filter for simulated images as well as for images obtained from a low-contrast phantom on an x-ray tomography scanner. The results suggest that the proposed parametric model observer, along with its Bayesian treatment, can provide an efficient, practical alternative for the quality assessment of CT imaging systems.

  17. A simple parametric model observer for quality assurance in computer tomography. (United States)

    Anton, Mathias; Khanin, Alexander; Kretz, Tobias; Reginatto, Marcel; Elster, Clemens


    Model observers are mathematical classifiers that are used for the quality assessment of imaging systems such as computer tomography. The quality of the imaging system is quantified by means of the performance of a selected model observer. For binary classification tasks, the performance of the model observer is defined by the area under its ROC curve (AUC). Typically, the AUC is estimated by applying the model observer to a large set of training and test data. However, the recording of these large data sets is not always practical for routine quality assurance. In this paper we propose as an alternative a parametric model observer that is based on a simple phantom, and we provide a Bayesian estimation of its AUC. It is shown that a limited number of repeatedly recorded images (10-15) is already sufficient to obtain results suitable for the quality assessment of an imaging system. A MATLAB® function is provided for the calculation of the results. The performance of the proposed model observer is compared to that of the established channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) and the nonprewhitening matched filter (NPW) for simulated images as well as for images obtained from a low-contrast phantom on an x-ray tomography scanner. The results suggest that the proposed parametric model observer, along with its Bayesian treatment, can provide an efficient, practical alternative for the quality assessment of CT imaging systems. © 2018 Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine.

  18. Maturity Matrices for Quality of Model- and Observation-Based Climate Data Records (United States)

    Höck, Heinke; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea; Kaspar, Frank; Stockhause, Martina; Toussaint, Frank; Lautenschlager, Michael


    In the field of Software Engineering the Capability Maturity Model is used to evaluate and improve software development processes. The application of a Maturity Matrix is a method to assess the degree of software maturity. This method was adapted to the maturity of Earth System data in scientific archives. The application of such an approach to Climate Data Records was first proposed in the context of satellite-based climate products and applied by NOAA and NASA. The European FP7 project CORE-CLIMAX suggested and tested extensions of the approach in order to allow the applicability to additional climate datasets, e.g. based on in-situ observations as well as model-based reanalysis. Within that project the concept was applied to products of satellite- and in-situ based datasets. Examples are national ground-based data from Germany as an example for typical products of a national meteorological service, the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility Network, the ESA Climate Change Initiative, European Reanalysis activities (ERA-CLIM) and international in situ-based climatologies such as GPCC, ECA&D, BSRN, HadSST. Climate models and their related output have some additional characteristics that need specific consideration in such an approach. Here we use examples from the World Data Centre for Climate (WDCC) to discuss the applicability. The WDCC focuses on climate data products, specifically those resulting from climate simulations. Based on these already existing Maturity Matrix models, WDCC developed a generic Quality Assessment System for Earth System data. A self-assessment is performed using a maturity matrix evaluating the data quality for five maturity levels with respect to the criteria data and metadata consistency, completeness, accessibility and accuracy. The classical goals of a quality assessment system in a data processing workflow are: (1) to encourage data creators to improve quality to reach the next quality level, (2) enable data consumers to decide

  19. Water and complex organic chemistry in the cold dark cloud Barnard 5: Observations and Models (United States)

    Wirström, Eva; Charnley, Steven B.; Taquet, Vianney; Persson, Carina M.


    Studies of complex organic molecule (COM) formation have traditionally been focused on hot cores in regions of massive star formation, where chemistry is driven by the elevated temperatures - evaporating ices and allowing for endothermic reactions in the gas-phase. As more sensitive instruments have become available, the types of objects known to harbour COMs like acetaldehyde (CH3CHO), dimethyl ether (CH3OCH3), methyl formate (CH3OCHO), and ketene (CH2CO) have expanded to include low mass protostars and, recently, even pre-stellar cores. We here report on the first in a new category of objects harbouring COMs: the cold dark cloud Barnard 5 where non-thermal ice desorption induce complex organic chemistry entirely unrelated to local star-formation.Methanol, which only forms efficiently on the surfaces of dust grains, provide evidence of efficient non-thermal desorption of ices in the form of prominent emission peaks offset from protostellar activity and high density tracers in cold molecular clouds. A study with Herschel targeting such methanol emission peaks resulted in the first ever detection of gas-phase water offset from protostellar activity in a dark cloud, at the so called methanol hotspot in Barnard 5.To model the effect a transient injection of ices into the gas-phase has on the chemistry of a cold, dark cloud we have included gas-grain interactions in an existing gas-phase chemical model and connected it to a chemical reaction network updated and expanded to include the formation and destruction paths of the most common COMs. Results from this model will be presented.Ground-based follow-up studies toward the methanol hotspot in B5 have resulted in the detection of a number of COMs, including CH2CO, CH3CHO, CH3OCH3, and CH3OCHO, as well as deuterated methanol (CH2DOH). Observations have also confirmed that COM emission is extended and not localised to a core structure. The implications of these observational and theoretical studies of B5 will be discussed

  20. Error detection in GPS observations by means of Multi-process models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Henrik F.


    The main purpose of this article is to present the idea of using Multi-process models as a method of detecting errors in GPS observations. The theory behind Multi-process models, and double differenced phase observations in GPS is presented shortly. It is shown how to model cycle slips in the Multi......-process context by means of a simple simulation. The simulation is used to illustrate how the method works, and it is concluded that the method deserves further investigation....

  1. A Study of Longwave Radiation Codes for Climate Studies: Validation with ARM Observations and Tests in General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert G. Ellingson


    One specific goal of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program is to improve the treatment of radiative transfer in General Circulation Models (GCMs) under clear-sky, general overcast and broken cloud conditions. Our project was geared to contribute to this goal by attacking major problems associated with one of the dominant radiation components of the problem --longwave radiation. The primary long-term project objectives were to: (1) develop an optimum longwave radiation model for use in GCMs that has been calibrated with state-of-the-art observations for clear and cloudy conditions, and (2) determine how the longwave radiative forcing with an improved algorithm contributes relatively in a GCM when compared to shortwave radiative forcing, sensible heating, thermal advection and convection. The approach has been to build upon existing models in an iterative, predictive fashion. We focused on comparing calculations from a set of models with operationally observed data for clear, overcast and broken cloud conditions. The differences found through the comparisons and physical insights have been used to develop new models, most of which have been tested with new data. Our initial GCM studies used existing GCMs to study the climate model-radiation sensitivity problem. Although this portion of our initial plans was curtailed midway through the project, we anticipate that the eventual outcome of this approach will provide both a better longwave radiative forcing algorithm and from our better understanding of how longwave radiative forcing influences the model equilibrium climate, how improvements in climate prediction using this algorithm can be achieved.

  2. A Sharable and Efficient Metadata Model for Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data Retrieval in Multi-Scale Flood Mapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nengcheng Chen


    Full Text Available Remote sensing plays an important role in flood mapping and is helping advance flood monitoring and management. Multi-scale flood mapping is necessary for dividing floods into several stages for comprehensive management. However, existing data systems are typically heterogeneous owing to the use of different access protocols and archiving metadata models. In this paper, we proposed a sharable and efficient metadata model (APEOPM for constructing an Earth observation (EO data system to retrieve remote sensing data for flood mapping. The proposed model contains two sub-models, an access protocol model and an enhanced encoding model. The access protocol model helps unify heterogeneous access protocols and can achieve intelligent access via a semantic enhancement method. The enhanced encoding model helps unify a heterogeneous archiving metadata model. Wuhan city, one of the most important cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in China, is selected as a study area for testing the retrieval of heterogeneous EO data and flood mapping. The past torrential rain period from 25 March 2015 to 10 April 2015 is chosen as the temporal range in this study. To aid in comprehensive management, mapping is conducted at different spatial and temporal scales. In addition, the efficiency of data retrieval is analyzed, and validation between the flood maps and actual precipitation was conducted. The results show that the flood map coincided with the actual precipitation.

  3. Choosing the observational likelihood in state-space stock assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Nielsen, Anders; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro

    By implementing different observational likelihoods in a state-space age-based stock assessment model, we are able to compare the goodness-of-fit and effects on estimated fishing mortallity for different model choices. Model fit is improved by estimating suitable correlations between agegroups. We...

  4. Characterization of climate indices in models and observations using Hurst Exponent and Reyni Entropy Techniques (United States)

    Newman, D.; Bhatt, U. S.; Wackerbauer, R.; Sanchez, R.; Polyakov, I.


    Because models are intrinsically incomplete and evolving, multiple methods are needed to characterize how well models match observations and were their weaknesses lie. For the study of climate, global climate models (GCM) are the primary tool. Therefore, in order to improve our climate modeling confidence and our understanding of the models weakness we need to apply more and more measures of various types until one finds differences. Then we can decide if these differences have important impacts on ones results and what they mean in terms of the weaknesses and missing physics in the models. In this work, we investigate a suite of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) simulations of varied complexity, from fixed sea surface temperature simulations to fully coupled T85 simulations. Climate indices (e.g. NAO), constructed from the GCM simulations and observed data, are analyzed using Hurst Exponent (R/S) and Reyni Entropy methods to explore long-term and short-term dynamics (i.e. temporal evolution of the time series). These methods identify clear differences between the models and observations as well as between the models. One preliminary finding suggests that fixing midlatitude SSTs to observed values increases the differences between the model and observation dynamics at long time scales.

  5. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2 (United States)

    Swales, Dustin J.; Pincus, Robert; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro


    The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

  6. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package: Version 2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Swales


    Full Text Available The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP gathers together a collection of observation proxies or satellite simulators that translate model-simulated cloud properties to synthetic observations as would be obtained by a range of satellite observing systems. This paper introduces COSP2, an evolution focusing on more explicit and consistent separation between host model, coupling infrastructure, and individual observing proxies. Revisions also enhance flexibility by allowing for model-specific representation of sub-grid-scale cloudiness, provide greater clarity by clearly separating tasks, support greater use of shared code and data including shared inputs across simulators, and follow more uniform software standards to simplify implementation across a wide range of platforms. The complete package including a testing suite is freely available.

  7. Exploring the existence of a stayer population with mover-stayer counting process models: application to joint damage in psoriatic arthritis. (United States)

    Yiu, Sean; Farewell, Vernon T; Tom, Brian D M


    Many psoriatic arthritis patients do not progress to permanent joint damage in any of the 28 hand joints, even under prolonged follow-up. This has led several researchers to fit models that estimate the proportion of stayers (those who do not have the propensity to experience the event of interest) and to characterize the rate of developing damaged joints in the movers (those who have the propensity to experience the event of interest). However, when fitted to the same data, the paper demonstrates that the choice of model for the movers can lead to widely varying conclusions on a stayer population, thus implying that, if interest lies in a stayer population, a single analysis should not generally be adopted. The aim of the paper is to provide greater understanding regarding estimation of a stayer population by comparing the inferences, performance and features of multiple fitted models to real and simulated data sets. The models for the movers are based on Poisson processes with patient level random effects and/or dynamic covariates, which are used to induce within-patient correlation, and observation level random effects are used to account for time varying unobserved heterogeneity. The gamma, inverse Gaussian and compound Poisson distributions are considered for the random effects.

  8. Performance and Evaluation of the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office Observing System Simulation Experiment (United States)

    Prive, Nikki; Errico, R. M.; Carvalho, D.


    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO) has spent more than a decade developing and implementing a global Observing System Simulation Experiment framework for use in evaluting both new observation types as well as the behavior of data assimilation systems. The NASA/GMAO OSSE has constantly evolved to relect changes in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimiation system, the Global Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5), and the real world observational network. Software and observational datasets for the GMAO OSSE are publicly available, along with a technical report. Substantial modifications have recently been made to the NASA/GMAO OSSE framework, including the character of synthetic observation errors, new instrument types, and more sophisticated atmospheric wind vectors. These improvements will be described, along with the overall performance of the current OSSE. Lessons learned from investigations into correlated errors and model error will be discussed.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Dehbi


    Full Text Available This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

  10. Parameter Estimation and Model Selection for Indoor Environments Based on Sparse Observations (United States)

    Dehbi, Y.; Loch-Dehbi, S.; Plümer, L.


    This paper presents a novel method for the parameter estimation and model selection for the reconstruction of indoor environments based on sparse observations. While most approaches for the reconstruction of indoor models rely on dense observations, we predict scenes of the interior with high accuracy in the absence of indoor measurements. We use a model-based top-down approach and incorporate strong but profound prior knowledge. The latter includes probability density functions for model parameters and sparse observations such as room areas and the building footprint. The floorplan model is characterized by linear and bi-linear relations with discrete and continuous parameters. We focus on the stochastic estimation of model parameters based on a topological model derived by combinatorial reasoning in a first step. A Gauss-Markov model is applied for estimation and simulation of the model parameters. Symmetries are represented and exploited during the estimation process. Background knowledge as well as observations are incorporated in a maximum likelihood estimation and model selection is performed with AIC/BIC. The likelihood is also used for the detection and correction of potential errors in the topological model. Estimation results are presented and discussed.

  11. Combined observational and modeling efforts of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions over Southeast Asia (United States)

    Loftus, Adrian; Tsay, Si-Chee; Nguyen, Xuan Anh


    Low-level stratocumulus (Sc) clouds cover more of the Earth's surface than any other cloud type rendering them critical for Earth's energy balance, primarily via reflection of solar radiation, as well as their role in the global hydrological cycle. Stratocumuli are particularly sensitive to changes in aerosol loading on both microphysical and macrophysical scales, yet the complex feedbacks involved in aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions remain poorly understood. Moreover, research on these clouds has largely been confined to marine environments, with far fewer studies over land where major sources of anthropogenic aerosols exist. The aerosol burden over Southeast Asia (SEA) in boreal spring, attributed to biomass burning (BB), exhibits highly consistent spatiotemporal distribution patterns, with major variability due to changes in aerosol loading mediated by processes ranging from large-scale climate factors to diurnal meteorological events. Downwind from source regions, the transported BB aerosols often overlap with low-level Sc cloud decks associated with the development of the region's pre-monsoon system, providing a unique, natural laboratory for further exploring their complex micro- and macro-scale relationships. Compared to other locations worldwide, studies of springtime biomass-burning aerosols and the predominately Sc cloud systems over SEA and their ensuing interactions are underrepresented in scientific literature. Measurements of aerosol and cloud properties, whether ground-based or from satellites, generally lack information on microphysical processes; thus cloud-resolving models are often employed to simulate the underlying physical processes in aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud model has recently been enhanced with a triple-moment (3M) bulk microphysics scheme as well as the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) version 6 aerosol module. Because the aerosol burden not only affects cloud

  12. Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models (United States)

    Dunn, Robert J. H.; Willett, Kate M.; Ciavarella, Andrew; Stott, Peter A.


    We compare the latest observational land surface humidity dataset, HadISDH, with the latest generation of climate models extracted from the CMIP5 archive and the ERA-Interim reanalysis over the period 1973 to present. The globally averaged behaviour of HadISDH and ERA-Interim are very similar in both humidity measures and air temperature, on decadal and interannual timescales. The global average relative humidity shows a gradual increase from 1973 to 2000, followed by a steep decline in recent years. The observed specific humidity shows a steady increase in the global average during the early period but in the later period it remains approximately constant. None of the CMIP5 models or experiments capture the observed behaviour of the relative or specific humidity over the entire study period. When using an atmosphere-only model, driven by observed sea surface temperatures and radiative forcing changes, the behaviour of regional average temperature and specific humidity are better captured, but there is little improvement in the relative humidity. Comparing the observed climatologies with those from historical model runs shows that the models are generally cooler everywhere, are drier and less saturated in the tropics and extra-tropics, and have comparable moisture levels but are more saturated in the high latitudes. The spatial pattern of linear trends is relatively similar between the models and HadISDH for temperature and specific humidity, but there are large differences for relative humidity, with less moistening shown in the models over the tropics and very little at high latitudes. The observed drying in mid-latitudes is present at a much lower magnitude in the CMIP5 models. Relationships between temperature and humidity anomalies (T-q and T-rh) show good agreement for specific humidity between models and observations, and between the models themselves, but much poorer for relative humidity. The T-q correlation from the models is more steeply positive than

  13. Global validation of a process-based model on vegetation gross primary production using eddy covariance observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Liu

    Full Text Available Gross Primary Production (GPP is the largest flux in the global carbon cycle. However, large uncertainties in current global estimations persist. In this study, we examined the performance of a process-based model (Integrated BIosphere Simulator, IBIS at 62 eddy covariance sites around the world. Our results indicated that the IBIS model explained 60% of the observed variation in daily GPP at all validation sites. Comparison with a satellite-based vegetation model (Eddy Covariance-Light Use Efficiency, EC-LUE revealed that the IBIS simulations yielded comparable GPP results as the EC-LUE model. Global mean GPP estimated by the IBIS model was 107.50±1.37 Pg C year(-1 (mean value ± standard deviation across the vegetated area for the period 2000-2006, consistent with the results of the EC-LUE model (109.39±1.48 Pg C year(-1. To evaluate the uncertainty introduced by the parameter Vcmax, which represents the maximum photosynthetic capacity, we inversed Vcmax using Markov Chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC procedures. Using the inversed Vcmax values, the simulated global GPP increased by 16.5 Pg C year(-1, indicating that IBIS model is sensitive to Vcmax, and large uncertainty exists in model parameterization.

  14. Evaluation of cloud resolving model simulations of midlatitude cirrus with ARM and A-Train observations (United States)

    Muehlbauer, A. D.; Ackerman, T. P.; Lawson, P.; Xie, S.; Zhang, Y.


    This paper evaluates cloud resolving model (CRM) and cloud system-resolving model (CSRM) simulations of a midlatitude cirrus case with comprehensive observations collected under the auspices of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program and with spaceborne observations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) A-train satellites. Vertical profiles of temperature, relative humidity and wind speeds are reasonably well simulated by the CSRM and CRM but there are remaining biases in the temperature, wind speeds and relative humidity, which can be mitigated through nudging the model simulations toward the observed radiosonde profiles. Simulated vertical velocities are underestimated in all simulations except in the CRM simulations with grid spacings of 500m or finer, which suggests that turbulent vertical air motions in cirrus clouds need to be parameterized in GCMs and in CSRM simulations with horizontal grid spacings on the order of 1km. The simulated ice water content and ice number concentrations agree with the observations in the CSRM but are underestimated in the CRM simulations. The underestimation of ice number concentrations is consistent with the overestimation of radar reflectivity in the CRM simulations and suggests that the model produces too many large ice particles especially toward cloud base. Simulated cloud profiles are rather insensitive to perturbations in the initial conditions or the dimensionality of the model domain but the treatment of the forcing data has a considerable effect on the outcome of the model simulations. Despite considerable progress in observations and microphysical parameterizations, simulating the microphysical, macrophysical and radiative properties of cirrus remains challenging. Comparing model simulations with observations from multiple instruments and observational platforms is important for revealing model deficiencies and for providing rigorous benchmarks. However, there still is considerable

  15. Advancing coastal ocean modelling, analysis, and prediction for the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (United States)

    Wilkin, John L.; Rosenfeld, Leslie; Allen, Arthur; Baltes, Rebecca; Baptista, Antonio; He, Ruoying; Hogan, Patrick; Kurapov, Alexander; Mehra, Avichal; Quintrell, Josie; Schwab, David; Signell, Richard; Smith, Jane


    This paper outlines strategies that would advance coastal ocean modelling, analysis and prediction as a complement to the observing and data management activities of the coastal components of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS®) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). The views presented are the consensus of a group of US-based researchers with a cross-section of coastal oceanography and ocean modelling expertise and community representation drawn from Regional and US Federal partners in IOOS. Priorities for research and development are suggested that would enhance the value of IOOS observations through model-based synthesis, deliver better model-based information products, and assist the design, evaluation, and operation of the observing system itself. The proposed priorities are: model coupling, data assimilation, nearshore processes, cyberinfrastructure and model skill assessment, modelling for observing system design, evaluation and operation, ensemble prediction, and fast predictors. Approaches are suggested to accomplish substantial progress in a 3–8-year timeframe. In addition, the group proposes steps to promote collaboration between research and operations groups in Regional Associations, US Federal Agencies, and the international ocean research community in general that would foster coordination on scientific and technical issues, and strengthen federal–academic partnerships benefiting IOOS stakeholders and end users.

  16. Examining wide-arc digital breast tomosynthesis: optimization using a visual-search model observer (United States)

    Das, Mini; Liang, Zhihua; Gifford, Howard C.


    Mathematical model observers are expected to assist in preclinical optimization of image acquisition and reconstruction parameters. A clinically realistic and robust model observer platform could help in multiparameter optimizations without requiring frequent human-observer validations. We are developing search-capable visual-search (VS) model observers with this potential. In this work, we present initial results on optimization of DBT scan angle and the number of projection views for low-contrast mass detection. Comparison with human-observer results shows very good agreement. These results point towards the benefits of using relatively wider arcs and low projection angles per arc degree for improved mass detection. These results are particularly interesting considering that the FDA-approved DBT systems like Hologic Selenia Dimensions uses a narrow (15-degree) acquisition arc and one projection per arc degree.

  17. Similarity of models of the observed navigational situation as multicriteria objects with probabilistic priorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popov Yu.A.


    Full Text Available The variant of calculation of relation of similarity of two models of navigational situation as multicriteria objects with probabilistic priorities has been considered. The priorities have been received with the help of the vessel system of observation

  18. A perspective on sustained marine observations for climate modelling and prediction. (United States)

    Dunstone, Nick J


    Here, I examine some of the many varied ways in which sustained global ocean observations are used in numerical modelling activities. In particular, I focus on the use of ocean observations to initialize predictions in ocean and climate models. Examples are also shown of how models can be used to assess the impact of both current ocean observations and to simulate that of potential new ocean observing platforms. The ocean has never been better observed than it is today and similarly ocean models have never been as capable at representing the real ocean as they are now. However, there remain important unanswered questions that can likely only be addressed via future improvements in ocean observations. In particular, ocean observing systems need to respond to the needs of the burgeoning field of near-term climate predictions. Although new ocean observing platforms promise exciting new discoveries, there is a delicate balance to be made between their funding and that of the current ocean observing system. Here, I identify the need to secure long-term funding for ocean observing platforms as they mature, from a mainly research exercise to an operational system for sustained observation over climate change time scales. At the same time, considerable progress continues to be made via ship-based observing campaigns and I highlight some that are dedicated to addressing uncertainties in key ocean model parametrizations. The use of ocean observations to understand the prominent long time scale changes observed in the North Atlantic is another focus of this paper. The exciting first decade of monitoring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation by the RAPID-MOCHA array is highlighted. The use of ocean and climate models as tools to further probe the drivers of variability seen in such time series is another exciting development. I also discuss the need for a concerted combined effort from climate models and ocean observations in order to understand the current slow

  19. Observation and Modeling of Tsunami-Generated Gravity Waves in the Earth’s Upper Atmosphere (United States)


    Observation and modeling of tsunami-generated gravity waves in the earth’s upper atmosphere 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6... perturbations caused by the GWs) as a function of space and time at the altitudes z=200-300 km. These perturbations will then be given to Dr. Makela to...for public release; distribution is unlimited. Observation and modeling of tsunami-generated gravity waves in the earth’s upper atmosphere Sharon

  20. Evolution of an extended cirrus anvil - Observations and modeling for CRYSTAL-FACE (United States)

    Starr, D.; Lin, R.-F.; Demoz, B.; McGill, M.; Heymsfield, G.; Sassen, K.; Bui, P.; Heymsfield, A.; Halverson, J.; Poellot, M.


    A key focus of CRYSTAL-FACE (Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and cirrus Layers - Florida Area Cirrus Experiment) was the generation and subsequent evolution of cirrus outflow from deep convective cloud systems. A preliminary integrated look at the observations of an extended cirrus anvil cloud system observed during July 2002 will be presented, including lidar and millimeter radar observations from NASA's ER-2 and in-situ observations from NASA's WB-57 and University of North Dakota Citation. The observations will be compared to preliminary results of simulations using 1-D and 2-D high-resolution (100 meter) cloud resolving models. The CRMs explicitly account for cirrus microphysical development by resolving the evolving ice crystal size distribution (bin model) in time and space. Both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation are allowed in the model. The CRM simulations are driven using the output of regional simulations using MM5 that produces deep convection similar to what was observed. The MM5 model employs a 2 km inner grid (32 layers) over a 360 km domain, nested within a 6 km grid over a 600 km domain. Initial and boundary conditions for the 36-hour MM5 simulation are taken from NCEP Eta model analysis at 32 km resolution. Key issues to be explored are the settling of the observed anvil versus the model simulations, and comparisons of dynamical properties, such as vertical motions, occurring in the observations and models. The former provides an integrated measure of the validity of the model microphysics (fallspeed) while the latter is the key factor in forcing continued ice generation.

  1. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa


    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  2. Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations. II. Testing the surface flux transport model (United States)

    Virtanen, I. O. I.; Virtanen, I. I.; Pevtsov, A. A.; Yeates, A.; Mursula, K.


    Aims: We aim to use the surface flux transport model to simulate the long-term evolution of the photospheric magnetic field from historical observations. In this work we study the accuracy of the model and its sensitivity to uncertainties in its main parameters and the input data. Methods: We tested the model by running simulations with different values of meridional circulation and supergranular diffusion parameters, and studied how the flux distribution inside active regions and the initial magnetic field affected the simulation. We compared the results to assess how sensitive the simulation is to uncertainties in meridional circulation speed, supergranular diffusion, and input data. We also compared the simulated magnetic field with observations. Results: We find that there is generally good agreement between simulations and observations. Although the model is not capable of replicating fine details of the magnetic field, the long-term evolution of the polar field is very similar in simulations and observations. Simulations typically yield a smoother evolution of polar fields than observations, which often include artificial variations due to observational limitations. We also find that the simulated field is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in model parameters or the input data. Due to the decay term included in the model the effects of the uncertainties are somewhat minor or temporary, lasting typically one solar cycle.

  3. Reconstructing solar magnetic fields from historical observations: Testing the surface flux transport model (United States)

    Virtanen, Iiro; Virtanen, Ilpo; Pevtsov, Alexei; Yeates, Anthony; Mursula, Kalevi


    We aim to use the surface flux transport model to simulate the long-term evolution of the photospheric magnetic field from historical observations. In this work we study the accuracy of the model and its sensitivity to uncertainties in its main parameters and the input data. We test the model by running simulations with different values of meridional circulation and supergranular diffusion parameters, and study how the flux distribution inside active regions and the initial magnetic field affect the simulation. We compare the results to assess how sensitive the simulation is to uncertainties in meridional circulation speed, supergranular diffusion and input data. We also compare the simulated magnetic field with observations. We find that there is generally good agreement between simulations and observations. While the model is not capable of replicating fine details of the magnetic field, the long-term evolution of the polar field is very similar in simulations and observations. Simulations typically yield a smoother evolution of polar fields than observations, that often include artificial variations due to observational limitations. We also find that the simulated field is fairly insensitive to uncertainties in model parameters or the input data. Due to the decay term included in the model the effects of the uncertainties are rather minor or temporary, lasting typically one solar cycle.

  4. Predictive models for observer performance in CT: applications in protocol optimization (United States)

    Richard, S.; Li, X.; Yadava, G.; Samei, E.


    The relationship between theoretical descriptions of imaging performance (Fourier-based) and the performance of real human observers was investigated for detection tasks in multi-slice CT. The detectability index for the Fisher-Hotelling model observer and non-prewhitening model observer (with and without internal noise and eye filter) was computed using: 1) the measured modulation transfer function (MTF) and noise-power spectrum (NPS) for CT; and 2) a Fourier description of imaging task. Based upon CT images of human patients with added simulated lesions, human observer performance was assessed via an observer study in terms of the area under the ROC curve (Az). The degree to which the detectability index correlated with human observer performance was investigated and results for the non-prewhitening model observer with internal noise and eye filter (NPWE) were found to agree best with human performance over a broad range of imaging conditions. Results provided initial validation that CT image acquisition and reconstruction parameters can be optimized for observer performance rather than system performance (i.e., contrast-to-noise ratio, MTF, and NPS). The NPWE model was further applied for the comparison of FBP with a novel modelbased iterative reconstruction algorithm to assess its potential for dose reduction.

  5. Constraining the interacting dark energy models from weak gravity conjecture and recent observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Ximing; Wang Bin; Pan Nana; Gong Yungui


    We examine the effectiveness of the weak gravity conjecture in constraining the dark energy by comparing with observations. For general dark energy models with plausible phenomenological interactions between dark sectors, we find that although the weak gravity conjecture can constrain the dark energy, the constraint is looser than that from the observations.

  6. Evaluating catchment-scale hydrological modeling by means of terrestrial gravity observations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasan, S.; Troch, P.A.; Bogaart, P.W.; Kroner, C.


    In a previous study (Hasan et al., 2006) we applied time series analysis and distributed hydrological modeling techniques to investigate the effect of hydrological processes on observed terrestrial gravity residuals. In this study we apply terrestrial gravity observations (measured in one location)

  7. Evaluation of Two Methods for Modeling Measurement Errors When Testing Interaction Effects with Observed Composite Scores (United States)

    Hsiao, Yu-Yu; Kwok, Oi-Man; Lai, Mark H. C.


    Path models with observed composites based on multiple items (e.g., mean or sum score of the items) are commonly used to test interaction effects. Under this practice, researchers generally assume that the observed composites are measured without errors. In this study, we reviewed and evaluated two alternative methods within the structural…

  8. Observability analysis for model-based fault detection and sensor selection in induction motors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakhaeinejad, Mohsen; Bryant, Michael D


    Sensors in different types and configurations provide information on the dynamics of a system. For a specific task, the question is whether measurements have enough information or whether the sensor configuration can be changed to improve the performance or to reduce costs. Observability analysis may answer the questions. This paper presents a general algorithm of nonlinear observability analysis with application to model-based diagnostics and sensor selection in three-phase induction motors. A bond graph model of the motor is developed and verified with experiments. A nonlinear observability matrix based on Lie derivatives is obtained from state equations. An observability index based on the singular value decomposition of the observability matrix is obtained. Singular values and singular vectors are used to identify the most and least observable configurations of sensors and parameters. A complex step derivative technique is used in the calculation of Jacobians to improve the computational performance of the observability analysis. The proposed algorithm of observability analysis can be applied to any nonlinear system to select the best configuration of sensors for applications of model-based diagnostics, observer-based controller, or to determine the level of sensor redundancy. Observability analysis on induction motors provides various sensor configurations with corresponding observability indices. Results show the redundancy levels for different sensors, and provide a sensor selection guideline for model-based diagnostics, and for observer-based controllers. The results can also be used for sensor fault detection and to improve the reliability of the system by increasing the redundancy level in measurements

  9. Pitfalls in alignment of observation models resolved using PROV as an upper ontology (United States)

    Cox, S. J. D.


    A number of models for observation metadata have been developed in the earth and environmental science communities, including OGC's Observations and Measurements (O&M), the ecosystems community's Extensible Observation Ontology (OBOE), the W3C's Semantic Sensor Network Ontology (SSNO), and the CUAHSI/NSF Observations Data Model v2 (ODM2). In order to combine data formalized in the various models, mappings between these must be developed. In some cases this is straightforward: since ODM2 took O&M as its starting point, their terminology is almost completely aligned. In the eco-informatics world observations are almost never made in isolation of other observations, so OBOE pays particular attention to groupings, with multiple atomic 'Measurements' in each oboe:Observation which does not have a result of its own and thus plays a different role to an om:Observation. And while SSN also adopted terminology from O&M, mapping is confounded by the fact that SSN uses DOLCE as its foundation and places ssn:Observations as 'Social Objects' which are explicitly disjoint from 'Events', while O&M is formalized as part of the ISO/TC 211 harmonised (UML) model and sees om:Observations as value assignment activities. Foundational ontologies (such as BFO, GFO, UFO or DOLCE) can provide a framework for alignment, but different upper ontologies can be based in profoundly different worldviews and use of incommensurate frameworks can confound rather than help. A potential resolution is provided by comparing recent studies that align SSN and O&M, respectively, with the PROV-O ontology. PROV-O provides just three base classes: Entity, Activity and Agent. om:Observation is sub-classed from prov:Activity, while ssn:Observation is sub-classed from prov:Entity. This confirms that, despite the same name, om:Observation and ssn:Observation denote different aspects of the observation process: the observation event, and the record of the observation event, respectively. Alignment with the simple

  10. Observational Learning without a Model Is Influenced by the Observer's Possibility to Act: Evidence from the Simon Task (United States)

    Iani, Cristina; Rubichi, Sandro; Ferraro, Luca; Nicoletti, Roberto; Gallese, Vittorio


    We assessed whether observational learning in perceptual-motor tasks is affected by the visibility of an action producing perceived environmental effects and by the observer's possibility to act during observation. To this end, we conducted three experiments in which participants were required to observe a spatial compatibility task in which only…

  11. Evaluation of Aerosol-cloud Interaction in the GISS Model E Using ARM Observations (United States)

    DeBoer, G.; Bauer, S. E.; Toto, T.; Menon, Surabi; Vogelmann, A. M.


    Observations from the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program are used to evaluate the ability of the NASA GISS ModelE global climate model in reproducing observed interactions between aerosols and clouds. Included in the evaluation are comparisons of basic meteorology and aerosol properties, droplet activation, effective radius parameterizations, and surface-based evaluations of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). Differences between the simulated and observed ACI are generally large, but these differences may result partially from vertical distribution of aerosol in the model, rather than the representation of physical processes governing the interactions between aerosols and clouds. Compared to the current observations, the ModelE often features elevated droplet concentrations for a given aerosol concentration, indicating that the activation parameterizations used may be too aggressive. Additionally, parameterizations for effective radius commonly used in models were tested using ARM observations, and there was no clear superior parameterization for the cases reviewed here. This lack of consensus is demonstrated to result in potentially large, statistically significant differences to surface radiative budgets, should one parameterization be chosen over another.

  12. Can citizen-based observations be assimilated in hydrological models to improve flood prediction? (United States)

    Mazzoleni, Maurizio; Alfonso, Leonardo; Solomatine, Dimitri P.


    In the recent years, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that can be used to measure hydrological variables by citizens in a more spatially distributed way than classic static physical sensors. However, such measurements have the main characteristics to have irregular arrival time and variable uncertainty. This study presents a Kalman filter based method to integrate citizen-based observations into hydrological models in order to improve flood prediction. The methodology is applied in the Brue catchment, South West of England. In order to estimate the response of the catchment to a given flood event, a lumped conceptual hydrological model is implemented. The measured precipitation values are used as perfect forecast input in the hydrological model. Synthetic streamflow values are used in this study due to the fact that citizen-based observations coming at irregular time steps are not available. The results of this study pointed out how increasing the number of uncertain citizen-based observations within two model time steps can improve the model accuracy leading to a better flood forecast. Therefore, observations uncertainty influences the model accuracy more than the irregular moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological model. This study is part of the FP7 European Project WeSenseIt Citizen Water Observatory (

  13. Fitting a 3-D analytic model of the coronal mass ejection to observations (United States)

    Gibson, S. E.; Biesecker, D.; Fisher, R.; Howard, R. A.; Thompson, B. J.


    The application of an analytic magnetohydrodynamic model is presented to observations of the time-dependent explusion of 3D coronal mass ejections (CMEs) out of the solar corona. This model relates the white-light appearance of the CME to its internal magnetic field, which takes the form of a closed bubble, filled with a partly anchored, twisted magnetic flux rope and embedded in an otherwise open background field. The density distribution frozen into the expanding CME expanding field is fully 3D, and can be integrated along the line of sight to reproduce observations of scattered white light. The model is able to reproduce the three conspicuous features often associated with CMEs as observed with white-light coronagraphs: a surrounding high-density region, an internal low-density cavity, and a high-density core. The model also describes the self-similar radial expansion of these structures. By varying the model parameters, the model can be fitted directly to observations of CMEs. It is shown how the model can quantitatively match the polarized brightness contrast of a dark cavity emerging through the lower corona as observed by the HAO Mauna Loa K-coronameter to within the noise level of the data.

  14. An Integrative Observing and Modeling Approach for the Physiological Understanding of Sun-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence in Japan (United States)

    Kobayashi, H.; Kato, T.; Saitoh, Y.; Noda, H.; Kikosaka, K.; Ichii, K.; Nasahara, K. N.


    Satellite-derived sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) is expected to provides a pathway to link leaf level photosynthesis to global GPP. Existing studies have stressed how well the satellite-derived SIF is correlated with the eddy covariance and/or modeled GPPs. There are some challenges in SIF interpretation because the satellite-derived SIF is a mixture of fluorescence emission from sunlit and shaded leaves and multiple scatterings of fluorescence within plant canopies. In this presentation, we show observation and modeling results around Japan and discuss how the integrative observing and modeling approach potentially overcomes the gaps in-between satellite SIF and photosynthesis reaction within leaves. We have analyzed ground-based SIF monitoring systems "Phenological Eye Network (PEN)". PEN covers several eddy flux sites in Japan and is equipped with spectroradiometer (MS-700) since 2003 (at an earliest site). The computed seasonal SIF variations in the different ecosystems show environmental dependency of SIF and GPP. Another ground-based system we are now developing is the vegetation lidar system named LIFS (Laser-Induced Fluorescence Spectrum), which can offer eco-physiological information of plants. LIFS is consisted of a pulsed UV (355 nm) laser, a telescope, a spectrometer/filter, and a gated image-intensified CCD detector. This system has been using to remotely monitor tree growth status, chlorophyll contents in leaves and so on. The physical and physiological theories are necessary for understanding the observed SIF under various environmental conditions. We have been developing leaf to plant canopy scale photosynthesis and SIF models as precise as possible. The developed model has been used to understand how the leaf-level SIF emission can be related to the canopy scale SIF, which enables to investigate the top of canopy SIF observed from ground-based and satellite-derived SIF measurements.

  15. Observed and modeled tsunami current velocities in Humboldt Bay and Crescent City Harbor, northern California (United States)

    Admire, A. R.; Dengler, L.; Crawford, G. B.; uslu, B. U.; Montoya, J.


    A pilot project was initiated in 2009 in Humboldt Bay, about 370 kilometers (km) north of San Francisco, California, to measure the currents produced by tsunamis. Northern California is susceptible to both near- and far-field tsunamis and has a historic record of damaging events. Crescent City Harbor, located approximately 100 km north of Humboldt Bay, suffered US 20 million in damages from strong currents produced by the 2006 Kuril Islands tsunami and an additional US 20 million from the 2011 Japan tsunami. In order to better evaluate these currents in northern California, we deployed a Nortek Aquadopp 600kHz 2D Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) with a one-minute sampling interval in Humboldt Bay, near the existing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Ocean Service (NOS) tide gauge station. The instrument recorded the tsunamis produced by the Mw 8.8 Chile earthquake on February 27, 2010 and the Mw 9.0 Japan earthquake on March 11, 2011. Currents from the 2010 tsunami persisted in Humboldt Bay for at least 30 hours with peak amplitudes of about 0.3 meters per second (m/s). The 2011 tsunami signal lasted for over 86 hours with peak amplitude of 0.95 m/s. Strongest currents corresponded to the maximum change in water level as recorded on the NOAA NOS tide gauge, and occurred 90 minutes after the initial wave arrival. No damage was observed in Humboldt Bay for either event. In Crescent City, currents for the first three and a half hours of the 2011 Japan tsunami were estimated using security camera video footage from the Harbor Master building across from the entrance to the small boat basin, approximately 70 meters away from the NOAA NOS tide gauge station. The largest amplitude tide gauge water-level oscillations and most of the damage occurred within this time window. The currents reached a velocity of approximately 4.5 m/s and six cycles exceeded 3 m/s during this period. Measured current velocities both in Humboldt Bay and in

  16. Characterization of the Sahelian-Sudan rainfall based on observations and regional climate models (United States)

    Salih, Abubakr A. M.; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Tjernström, Michael; Zhang, Qiong


    The African Sahel region is known to be highly vulnerable to climate variability and change. We analyze rainfall in the Sahelian Sudan in terms of distribution of rain-days and amounts, and examine whether regional climate models can capture these rainfall features. Three regional models namely, Regional Model (REMO), Rossby Center Atmospheric Model (RCA) and Regional Climate Model (RegCM4), are evaluated against gridded observations (Climate Research Unit, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, and ERA-interim reanalysis) and rain-gauge data from six arid and semi-arid weather stations across Sahelian Sudan over the period 1989 to 2008. Most of the observed rain-days are characterized by weak (0.1-1.0 mm/day) to moderate (> 1.0-10.0 mm/day) rainfall, with average frequencies of 18.5% and 48.0% of the total annual rain-days, respectively. Although very strong rainfall events (> 30.0 mm/day) occur rarely, they account for a large fraction of the total annual rainfall (28-42% across the stations). The performance of the models varies both spatially and temporally. RegCM4 most closely reproduces the observed annual rainfall cycle, especially for the more arid locations, but all of the three models fail to capture the strong rainfall events and hence underestimate its contribution to the total annual number of rain-days and rainfall amount. However, excessive moderate rainfall compensates this underestimation in the models in an annual average sense. The present study uncovers some of the models' limitations in skillfully reproducing the observed climate over dry regions, will aid model users in recognizing the uncertainties in the model output and will help climate and hydrological modeling communities in improving models.

  17. Earth as an Extrasolar Planet: Earth Model Validation Using EPOXI Earth Observations (United States)

    Robinson, Tyler D.; Meadows, Victoria S.; Crisp, David; Deming, Drake; A'Hearn, Michael F.; Charbonneau, David; Livengood, Timothy A.; Seager, Sara; Barry, Richard; Hearty, Thomas; hide


    The EPOXI Discovery Mission of Opportunity reused the Deep Impact flyby spacecraft to obtain spatially and temporally resolved visible photometric and moderate resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic observations of Earth. These remote observations provide a rigorous validation of whole disk Earth model simulations used to better under- stand remotely detectable extrasolar planet characteristics. We have used these data to upgrade, correct, and validate the NASA Astrobiology Institute s Virtual Planetary Laboratory three-dimensional line-by-line, multiple-scattering spectral Earth model (Tinetti et al., 2006a,b). This comprehensive model now includes specular reflectance from the ocean and explicitly includes atmospheric effects such as Rayleigh scattering, gas absorption, and temperature structure. We have used this model to generate spatially and temporally resolved synthetic spectra and images of Earth for the dates of EPOXI observation. Model parameters were varied to yield an optimum fit to the data. We found that a minimum spatial resolution of approx.100 pixels on the visible disk, and four categories of water clouds, which were defined using observed cloud positions and optical thicknesses, were needed to yield acceptable fits. The validated model provides a simultaneous fit to the Earth s lightcurve, absolute brightness, and spectral data, with a root-mean-square error of typically less than 3% for the multiwavelength lightcurves, and residuals of approx.10% for the absolute brightness throughout the visible and NIR spectral range. We extend our validation into the mid-infrared by comparing the model to high spectral resolution observations of Earth from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, obtaining a fit with residuals of approx.7%, and temperature errors of less than 1K in the atmospheric window. For the purpose of understanding the observable characteristics of the distant Earth at arbitrary viewing geometry and observing cadence, our validated

  18. Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity (United States)

    Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.


    The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

  19. A comparison of the ECMWF forecast model with observations over the annual cycle at SHEBA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bretherton, C.S.; Roode, S.R. de; Jakob, C.; Andreas, E.L.; Intrieri, J.; Moritz, R.E.; Persson, P.O.G.


    A central objective of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment was to provide a comprehensive observational test for single-column models of the atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system over the Arctic Ocean. For single-column modeling, one must specify the time-varying tendencies

  20. Video Modeling and Observational Learning to Teach Gaming Access to Students with ASD (United States)

    Spriggs, Amy D.; Gast, David L.; Knight, Victoria F.


    The purpose of this study was to evaluate both video modeling and observational learning to teach age-appropriate recreation and leisure skills (i.e., accessing video games) to students with autism spectrum disorder. Effects of video modeling were evaluated via a multiple probe design across participants and criteria for mastery were based on…

  1. On the importance of observational data properties when assessing regional climate model performance of extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Sørup, Hjalte Jomo Danielsen; Christensen, Ole Bøssing


    In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of climate studies addressing changes in extreme precipitation. A common step in these studies involves the assessment of the climate model performance. This is often measured by comparing climate model output with observational data. In t...



    アオキ, テルオ; セコ, カツモト; アオキ, タダオ; フカボリ, マサシ; Teruo, AOKI; Katsumoto, SEKO; Tadao, AOKI; Masashi, FUKABORI


    Snow surface albedo and transmittance inside the snow have been investigated by observation and modeling. Observations were taken by a grating type spectrometer at Tokamachi in March 1993. The observed snow was old and very wet. Microscope photo-graphs of snow grains taken at this time indicate that snow grain is spherical particles with size of about 1.0μm. Surface albedo and transmittance of snow by a multiple scattering model for the atmosphere-snow system with pure snow grain size of 1.0μ...

  3. Diffuse nitrogen loss simulation and impact assessment of stereoscopic agriculture pattern by integrated water system model and consideration of multiple existence forms (United States)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Gao, Yang; Yu, Qiang


    Agricultural nitrogen loss becomes an increasingly important source of water quality deterioration and eutrophication, even threatens water safety for humanity. Nitrogen dynamic mechanism is still too complicated to be well captured at watershed scale due to its multiple existence forms and instability, disturbance of agricultural management practices. Stereoscopic agriculture is a novel agricultural planting pattern to efficiently use local natural resources (e.g., water, land, sunshine, heat and fertilizer). It is widely promoted as a high yield system and can obtain considerable economic benefits, particularly in China. However, its environmental quality implication is not clear. In our study, Qianyanzhou station is famous for its stereoscopic agriculture pattern of Southern China, and an experimental watershed was selected as our study area. Regional characteristics of runoff and nitrogen losses were simulated by an integrated water system model (HEQM) with multi-objective calibration, and multiple agriculture practices were assessed to find the effective approach for the reduction of diffuse nitrogen losses. Results showed that daily variations of runoff and nitrogen forms were well reproduced throughout watershed, i.e., satisfactory performances for ammonium and nitrate nitrogen (NH4-N and NO3-N) loads, good performances for runoff and organic nitrogen (ON) load, and very good performance for total nitrogen (TN) load. The average loss coefficient was 62.74 kg/ha for NH4-N, 0.98 kg/ha for NO3-N, 0.0004 kg/ha for ON and 63.80 kg/ha for TN. The dominating form of nitrogen losses was NH4-N due to the applied fertilizers, and the most dramatic zones aggregated in the middle and downstream regions covered by paddy and orange orchard. In order to control diffuse nitrogen losses, the most effective practices for Qianyanzhou stereoscopic agriculture pattern were to reduce farmland planting scale in the valley by afforestation, particularly for orchard in the

  4. Global Model Comparison with NOAA Observed Surface Ozone to Understand Transport in the Arctic (United States)

    Petropavlovskikh, I. V.; McClure-Begley, A.; Tummon, F.; Tilmes, S.; Yudina, A.; Crepinsek, S.; Uttal, T.


    The Arctic region is rapidly gaining interest and support for scientific studies to help understand and characterize the processes, sources, and chemical composition of the Arctic environment. In order to understand the Arctic climate system and the changes that are occurring, it is imperative to know the behavior and impact of atmospheric constituents. As a secondary pollutant which impacts the oxidation capacity and radiative forcing of the atmosphere, ozone is an imperative species to characterize. Global atmospheric models help to confirm and understand the influence of long-distance transport on local ozone conditions. This analysis highlights the winter season when ozone conditions are not being driven by photochemical influence, and transport is the prevalent means of ozone variation. In order to ensure adequate representation of ozone conditions and source regions, model comparison verifies the ability of models to represent the behavior of ozone at the surface. Ozone mixing ratios observed from Barrow, Alaska and Summit, Greenland, are critical observations to provide fundamental knowledge of the behavior and trends of ground-level ozone in the Arctic. The observed surface ozone and wind data are compared against two different global climate-chemistry models to assess the ability for models to simulate surface ozone in the arctic region. The CCM SOCOL (Modeling tools for studies of Solar Climate Ozone Links) and Community Earth System Model (CESM1) CAM4-chem are compared to observational measurements. Comparisons between the model and observations are used as the first step in understanding of the long-range transport contribution to ozone variability in the boundary layer of the Arctic environment. An improvement in agreement between observations and chemistry-climate hind cast is found when the model is forced with reanalysis wind conditions.

  5. Existence of ideal knots

    CERN Document Server

    González, O


    Ideal knots are curves that maximize the scale invariant ratio of thickness to length. Here we present a simple argument to establish the existence of ideal knots for each knot type and each isotopy class and show that they are $C^{1,1}$ curves.

  6. Observations of Subvisual Cirrus Clouds with Optical Particle Counters at Thailand; Comparisons with Observation and Parcel Model Results (United States)

    Iwasaki, S.; Maruyama, K.; Hayashi, M.; Ogino, S.; Ishimoto, H.


    1. Introduction Subvisual cirrus clouds (SVC) generally exist at a height of around 17 km in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). In order to research SVC, in situ measurements are effective. However, since all in situ measurements are airborne measurements, they are fairly expensive to conduct and are not suitable for measuring the vertical profiles of the particles. Hence, we launched 11 balloon-borne optical particle counters (OPC) from April to June 2003 in Thailand (17.9 °N, 99.5 °E). 2. Optical particle counter Our OPC has 8 channels, of which radii are from 0.15 to 3.5 μm for spherical particles, to measure the accumulated number concentrations. Because ice particles are not spherical, the measurement error is estimated by the finite-difference time domain method (FDTD). The minimum detectable number concentration and the vertical resolution are approximately 1.5 × 104 number/m3 and 50 m at the TTL. 3. Results We launched 11 OPCs and 5 of them measured SVCs in the TTL in Thailand. Comparisons between the averaged particle size distributions in the TTL in the presence and absence of SVCs show the following features: (1) the regression lines of droplet (aerosol) size distributions in the two cases are not significantly different, (2) 5 OPCs detected enhancements in the number of particles as compared with the background aerosol number for the radius of 1.2 μm or 1.7 μm in the presence of SVCs, and (3) 5 OPCs detected the local maximum value at a radius of 1.7 μm. A parcel model whose initial relative humidity with respect to ice and ambient temperature were 120 % and - 80 °C satisfied abovementioned items when the vertical wind velocity was defined as the Brunt-Vaisala frequency, w = 20 cm/s × cos(2πt/7min); hence the comparison suggests ithe frequency is one of the possibility of the SVC generation mechanism.

  7. Improvement of geological subsurface structure models for Kanto area, Japan, based on records of microtremor array and earthquake observations (United States)

    Wakai, A.; Senna, S.; Jin, K.; Cho, I.; Matsuyama, H.; Fujiwara, H.


    To estimate damage caused by strong ground motions from a large earthquake, it is important to accurately evaluate broadband ground-motion characteristics in wide area. For realizing that, it is one of the important issues to model detailed subsurface structure from top surface of seismic bedrock to ground surface.Here, we focus on Kanto area, including Tokyo, where there are thicker sedimentary layers. We, first, have ever collected deep bore-hole data, soil physical properties obtained by some geophysical explorations, geological information and existing models for deep ground from top surface of seismic bedrock to that of engineering bedrock, and have collected a great number of bore-hole data and surficial geological ones for shallow ground from top surface of engineering bedrock to ground surface. Using them, we modeled initial geological subsurface structure for each of deep ground and shallow one. By connecting them appropriately, we constructed initial geological subsurface structure models from top surface of seismic bedrock to ground surface.In this study, we first collected a lot of records obtained by dense microtremor observations and earthquake ones in the whole Kanto area. About microtremor observations, we conducted measurements from large array with the size of hundreds of meters to miniature array with the size of 60 centimeters to cover both of deep ground and shallow one. And then, using ground motion characteristics such as disperse curves and H/V(R/V) spectral ratios obtained from these records, the initial geological subsurface structure models were improved in terms of velocity structure from top surface of seismic bedrock to ground surface in the area.We will report outlines on microtremor array observations, analysis methods and improved subsurface structure models.

  8. Model and performance of current sensor observers for a doubly fed induction generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Hui; Yang, Chao; Hu, Yaogang


    This article presents a stator and rotor current observer for a doubly fed induction generator. First, the dynamic models of the wind turbine drive train are presented, and the vector control strategies of a doubly fed induction generator for the rotor-side and grid-side converters are described....... A stator and rotor current observer model, which is based on the state-space models of doubly fed induction generators, is then derived by using the stator and rotor voltage signals as inputs. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed current observer, its dynamic performance is simulated using...... a MATLAB/Simulink software platform under the conditions of active power change of doubly fed induction generators and grid voltage dip fault. Furthermore, the robustness of the proposed current observer is investigated when the doubly fed induction generator rotor resistance is changed. Results show...

  9. Cost-effectiveness analysis of varenicline versus existing smoking cessation strategies in Central America and the Caribbean using the BENESCO model. (United States)

    Lutz, Manfred A; Lovato, Pedro; Cuesta, Genaro


    In Central American countries, the economic burden of tobacco has not been assessed. In Costa Rica, a study demonstrated that tobacco-related diseases represent high costs for the health care system. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of varenicline compared with other existing strategies for smoking cessation within a 10-year time horizon in an adult population cohort from Central American and Caribbean countries using the health care payer's perspective. The Benefits of Smoking Cessation on Outcomes simulation model was used for an adult cohort in Costa Rica (n = 2 474 029), Panama (n = 2 249 676), Nicaragua (n = 3 639 948), El Salvador (n = 4 537 803), and the Dominican Republic (n = 6 528 125) (N = 19 429 581). Smoking cessation therapies compared were varenicline (0.5-2 mg/day) versus bupropion (300 mg/day), nicotine replacement therapy (5-15 mg/day), and unaided cessation. Effectiveness measures were: life-years (LYs) gained and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Resource use and cost data were obtained from a country's Ministry of Health and/or Social Security Institutions (2008-2010). The model used a 5% discount rate for costs (expressed in 2010 US$) and health outcomes. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted and acceptability curves were constructed. Varenicline reduced smoking-related morbidity, mortality, and health care costs in each country included in the study. Accumulatively, mortality in the varenicline arm was reduced by 1190, 1538, and 2902 smoking-related deaths compared with bupropion, nicotine replacement therapy, and unaided cessation, respectively. The net average cost per additional quitter showed that varenicline was cost-saving when compared with competing alternatives. Regarding LYs and QALYs gained in 10 years, varenicline obtained the greatest number of QALYs and LYs in each country, while unaided cessation obtained the fewest. Cost-effectiveness analyses in all 5 countries showed that

  10. Studying Aerosol Properties with Astronomical Observations Using a Scattered Moonlight Model (United States)

    Jones, Amy; Noll, Stefan; Kausch, Wolfgang; Szyszka, Cezary; Kimeswenger, Stefan


    We are developing a new technique for monitoring the atmosphere with astronomical observations and our scattered moonlight model. This could be used to determine the size distributions and amounts of various aerosol particles. By taking the Moon as an illuminating source in sky observations, it is possible to iteratively find aerosol properties for a given time and location. There is a wealth of astronomical data over the last decade taken at Cerro Paranal in Chile where this technique can be applied. Our advanced scattered moonlight model is part of a sky radiance and transmission model developed for the Very Large Telescope of the European Southern Observatory. The moon model can calculate the amount of scattered moonlight present in a given astronomical observation based on the positions of the Moon and target, lunar phase, and atmospheric properties. This model is more physical than previous works in astronomy, which were almost completely empirical. For the original astronomical purpose, the model uses typical size distributions of remote continental tropospheric and stratospheric aerosols and the measured extinction curve from standard star observations to calculate the scattering and absorption of the moonlight to determine the amount of light that would eventually arrive to the telescope. Because the model incorporates the properties of the aerosols, in principle we can use this model with sky background observations to find the aerosol composition. The sky observations would first need to be analysed with our full sky model to calculate the other sky background components, and a derived extinction curve from standard star observations. Then with our moon model we could iteratively find the best aerosol composition for the data. This would require optical and near infrared spectra for an unique, optimized solution. This technique for studying aerosol properties would provide data from a new perspective. The investigated aerosols would be nocturnal, from a

  11. Choosing the observational likelihood in state-space stock assessment models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Nielsen, Anders; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro


    Data used in stock assessment models result from combinations of biological, ecological, fishery, and sampling processes. Since different types of errors propagate through these processes it can be difficult to identify a particular family of distributions for modelling errors on observations a p...... differs for different stocks, and the choice is important for the short-term conclusions drawn from the assessment model; in particular, the choice can influence total allowable catch advise based on reference points....


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuentes, Marcelo López [Instituto de Astronomía y Física del Espacio, CONICET-UBA, CC. 67, Suc. 28, 1428 Buenos Aires (Argentina); Klimchuk, James A., E-mail: [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Code 671, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States)


    We use the cellular automaton model described in López Fuentes and Klimchuk to study the evolution of coronal loop plasmas. The model, based on the idea of a critical misalignment angle in tangled magnetic fields, produces nanoflares of varying frequency with respect to the plasma cooling time. We compare the results of the model with active region (AR) observations obtained with the Hinode /XRT and SDO /AIA instruments. The comparison is based on the statistical properties of synthetic and observed loop light curves. Our results show that the model reproduces the main observational characteristics of the evolution of the plasma in AR coronal loops. The typical intensity fluctuations have amplitudes of 10%–15% both for the model and the observations. The sign of the skewness of the intensity distributions indicates the presence of cooling plasma in the loops. We also study the emission measure (EM) distribution predicted by the model and obtain slopes in log(EM) versus log(T) between 2.7 and 4.3, in agreement with published observational values.

  13. A Nanoflare-Based Cellular Automaton Model and the Observed Properties of the Coronal Plasma (United States)

    Lopez-Fuentes, Marcelo; Klimchuk, James Andrew


    We use the cellular automaton model described in Lopez Fuentes and Klimchuk to study the evolution of coronal loop plasmas. The model, based on the idea of a critical misalignment angle in tangled magnetic fields, produces nanoflares of varying frequency with respect to the plasma cooling time. We compare the results of the model with active region (AR) observations obtained with the Hinode/XRT and SDOAIA instruments. The comparison is based on the statistical properties of synthetic and observed loop light curves. Our results show that the model reproduces the main observational characteristics of the evolution of the plasma in AR coronal loops. The typical intensity fluctuations have amplitudes of 10 percent - 15 percent both for the model and the observations. The sign of the skewness of the intensity distributions indicates the presence of cooling plasma in the loops. We also study the emission measure (EM) distribution predicted by the model and obtain slopes in log(EM) versus log(T) between 2.7 and 4.3, in agreement with published observational values.

  14. Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States (United States)

    Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Wu, Jiexia; Norton, Holly E.; Dorigo, Wouter A.; Quiring, Steven M.; Ford, Trenton W.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Ek, Michael B.; Koster, Randal Dean; hide


    Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses out perform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

  15. Effect of recent observations on Asian CO2 flux estimates by transport model inversions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maksyutov, Shamil; Patra, Prabir K.; Machida, Toshinobu; Mukai, Hitoshi; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Inoue, Gen


    We use an inverse model to evaluate the effects of the recent CO 2 observations over Asia on estimates of regional CO 2 sources and sinks. Global CO 2 flux distribution is evaluated using several atmospheric transport models, atmospheric CO 2 observations and a 'time-independent' inversion procedure adopted in the basic synthesis inversion by the Transcom-3 inverse model intercomparison project. In our analysis we include airborne and tower observations in Siberia, continuous monitoring and airborne observations over Japan, and airborne monitoring on regular flights on Tokyo-Sydney route. The inclusion of the new data reduces the uncertainty of the estimated regional CO 2 fluxes for Boreal Asia (Siberia), Temperate Asia and South-East Asia. The largest effect is observed for the emission/sink estimate for the Boreal Asia region, where introducing the observations in Siberia reduces the source uncertainty by almost half. It also produces an uncertainty reduction for Boreal North America. Addition of the Siberian airborne observations leads to projecting extra sinks in Boreal Asia of 0.2 Pg C/yr, and a smaller change for Europe. The Tokyo-Sydney observations reduce and constrain the Southeast Asian source

  16. Projected metastable Markov processes and their estimation with observable operator models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Hao; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank


    The determination of kinetics of high-dimensional dynamical systems, such as macromolecules, polymers, or spin systems, is a difficult and generally unsolved problem — both in simulation, where the optimal reaction coordinate(s) are generally unknown and are difficult to compute, and in experimental measurements, where only specific coordinates are observable. Markov models, or Markov state models, are widely used but suffer from the fact that the dynamics on a coarsely discretized state spaced are no longer Markovian, even if the dynamics in the full phase space are. The recently proposed projected Markov models (PMMs) are a formulation that provides a description of the kinetics on a low-dimensional projection without making the Markovianity assumption. However, as yet no general way of estimating PMMs from data has been available. Here, we show that the observed dynamics of a PMM can be exactly described by an observable operator model (OOM) and derive a PMM estimator based on the OOM learning

  17. Holographic dark energy models: a comparison from the latest observational data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Miao; Li, Xiao-Dong; Wang, Shuang; Zhang, Xin


    The holographic principle of quantum gravity theory has been applied to the dark energy (DE) problem, and so far three holographic DE models have been proposed: the original holographic dark energy (HDE) model, the agegraphic dark energy (ADE) model, and the holographic Ricci dark energy (RDE) model. In this work, we perform the best-fit analysis on these three models, by using the latest observational data including the Union+CFA3 sample of 397 Type Ia supernovae (SNIa), the shift parameter of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) given by the five-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP5) observations, and the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurement from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The analysis shows that for HDE, χ min 2 = 465.912; for RDE, χ min 2 = 483.130; for ADE, χ min 2 = 481.694. Among these models, HDE model can give the smallest χ 2 min . Besides, we also use the Bayesian evidence (BE) as a model selection criterion to make a comparison. It is found that for HDE, ADE, and RDE, Δln BE = −0.86, −5.17, and −8.14, respectively. So, it seems that the HDE model is more favored by the observational data

  18. The effects of climate downscaling technique and observational data set on modeled ecological responses. (United States)

    Pourmokhtarian, Afshin; Driscoll, Charles T; Campbell, John L; Hayhoe, Katharine; Stoner, Anne M K


    Assessments of future climate change impacts on ecosystems typically rely on multiple climate model projections, but often utilize only one downscaling approach trained on one set of observations. Here, we explore the extent to which modeled biogeochemical responses to changing climate are affected by the selection of the climate downscaling method and training observations used at the montane landscape of the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA. We evaluated three downscaling methods: the delta method (or the change factor method), monthly quantile mapping (Bias Correction-Spatial Disaggregation, or BCSD), and daily quantile regression (Asynchronous Regional Regression Model, or ARRM). Additionally, we trained outputs from four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) (CCSM3, HadCM3, PCM, and GFDL-CM2.1) driven by higher (A1fi) and lower (B1) future emissions scenarios on two sets of observations (1/8º resolution grid vs. individual weather station) to generate the high-resolution climate input for the forest biogeochemical model PnET-BGC (eight ensembles of six runs).The choice of downscaling approach and spatial resolution of the observations used to train the downscaling model impacted modeled soil moisture and streamflow, which in turn affected forest growth, net N mineralization, net soil nitrification, and stream chemistry. All three downscaling methods were highly sensitive to the observations used, resulting in projections that were significantly different between station-based and grid-based observations. The choice of downscaling method also slightly affected the results, however not as much as the choice of observations. Using spatially smoothed gridded observations and/or methods that do not resolve sub-monthly shifts in the distribution of temperature and/or precipitation can produce biased results in model applications run at greater temporal and/or spatial resolutions. These results underscore the importance of

  19. Charge state evolution in the solar wind. III. Model comparison with observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landi, E.; Oran, R.; Lepri, S. T.; Zurbuchen, T. H.; Fisk, L. A.; Van der Holst, B. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States)


    We test three theoretical models of the fast solar wind with a set of remote sensing observations and in-situ measurements taken during the minimum of solar cycle 23. First, the model electron density and temperature are compared to SOHO/SUMER spectroscopic measurements. Second, the model electron density, temperature, and wind speed are used to predict the charge state evolution of the wind plasma from the source regions to the freeze-in point. Frozen-in charge states are compared with Ulysses/SWICS measurements at 1 AU, while charge states close to the Sun are combined with the CHIANTI spectral code to calculate the intensities of selected spectral lines, to be compared with SOHO/SUMER observations in the north polar coronal hole. We find that none of the theoretical models are able to completely reproduce all observations; namely, all of them underestimate the charge state distribution of the solar wind everywhere, although the levels of disagreement vary from model to model. We discuss possible causes of the disagreement, namely, uncertainties in the calculation of the charge state evolution and of line intensities, in the atomic data, and in the assumptions on the wind plasma conditions. Last, we discuss the scenario where the wind is accelerated from a region located in the solar corona rather than in the chromosphere as assumed in the three theoretical models, and find that a wind originating from the corona is in much closer agreement with observations.

  20. Optimization of energy window and evaluation of scatter compensation methods in myocardial perfusion SPECT using the ideal observer with and without model mismatch and an anthropomorphic model observer (United States)

    Ghaly, Michael; Links, Jonathan M.; Frey, Eric


    Abstract. We used the ideal observer (IO) and IO with model mismatch (IO-MM) applied in the projection domain and an anthropomorphic channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) applied to reconstructed images to optimize the acquisition energy window width and to evaluate various scatter compensation methods in the context of a myocardial perfusion single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) defect detection task. The IO has perfect knowledge of the image formation process and thus reflects the performance with perfect compensation for image-degrading factors. Thus, using the IO to optimize imaging systems could lead to suboptimal parameters compared with those optimized for humans interpreting SPECT images reconstructed with imperfect or no compensation. The IO-MM allows incorporating imperfect system models into the IO optimization process. We found that with near-perfect scatter compensation, the optimal energy window for the IO and CHO was similar; in its absence, the IO-MM gave a better prediction of the optimal energy window for the CHO using different scatter compensation methods. These data suggest that the IO-MM may be useful for projection-domain optimization when MM is significant and that the IO is useful when followed by reconstruction with good models of the image formation process. PMID:26029730

  1. SU-F-J-178: A Computer Simulation Model Observer for Task-Based Image Quality Assessment in Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dolly, S; Mutic, S; Anastasio, M; Li, H [Washington University School of Medicine, Saint Louis, MO (United States); Yu, L [Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN (United States)


    Purpose: Traditionally, image quality in radiation therapy is assessed subjectively or by utilizing physically-based metrics. Some model observers exist for task-based medical image quality assessment, but almost exclusively for diagnostic imaging tasks. As opposed to disease diagnosis, the task for image observers in radiation therapy is to utilize the available images to design and deliver a radiation dose which maximizes patient disease control while minimizing normal tissue damage. The purpose of this study was to design and implement a new computer simulation model observer to enable task-based image quality assessment in radiation therapy. Methods: A modular computer simulation framework was developed to resemble the radiotherapy observer by simulating an end-to-end radiation therapy treatment. Given images and the ground-truth organ boundaries from a numerical phantom as inputs, the framework simulates an external beam radiation therapy treatment and quantifies patient treatment outcomes using the previously defined therapeutic operating characteristic (TOC) curve. As a preliminary demonstration, TOC curves were calculated for various CT acquisition and reconstruction parameters, with the goal of assessing and optimizing simulation CT image quality for radiation therapy. Sources of randomness and bias within the system were analyzed. Results: The relationship between CT imaging dose and patient treatment outcome was objectively quantified in terms of a singular value, the area under the TOC (AUTOC) curve. The AUTOC decreases more rapidly for low-dose imaging protocols. AUTOC variation introduced by the dose optimization algorithm was approximately 0.02%, at the 95% confidence interval. Conclusion: A model observer has been developed and implemented to assess image quality based on radiation therapy treatment efficacy. It enables objective determination of appropriate imaging parameter values (e.g. imaging dose). Framework flexibility allows for incorporation

  2. A Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Metadata Model for Interdisciplinary Instant Point Observations in Smart Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nengcheng Chen


    Full Text Available Due to the incomprehensive and inconsistent description of spatial and temporal information for city data observed by sensors in various fields, it is a great challenge to share the massive, multi-source and heterogeneous interdisciplinary instant point observation data resources. In this paper, a spatio-temporal enhanced metadata model for point observation data sharing was proposed. The proposed Data Meta-Model (DMM focused on the spatio-temporal characteristics and formulated a ten-tuple information description structure to provide a unified and spatio-temporal enhanced description of the point observation data. To verify the feasibility of the point observation data sharing based on DMM, a prototype system was established, and the performance improvement of Sensor Observation Service (SOS for the instant access and insertion of point observation data was realized through the proposed MongoSOS, which is a Not Only SQL (NoSQL SOS based on the MongoDB database and has the capability of distributed storage. For example, the response time of the access and insertion for navigation and positioning data can be realized at the millisecond level. Case studies were conducted, including the gas concentrations monitoring for the gas leak emergency response and the smart city public vehicle monitoring based on BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS used for recording the dynamic observation information. The results demonstrated the versatility and extensibility of the DMM, and the spatio-temporal enhanced sharing for interdisciplinary instant point observations in smart cities.

  3. Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boice, D.C.


    Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the