Traffic accidents involving fatigue driving and their extent of casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Zhang, Xun; Li, Yanyan

2016-02-01

The rapid progress of motorization has increased the number of traffic-related casualties. Although fatigue driving is a major cause of traffic accidents, the public remains not rather aware of its potential harmfulness. Fatigue driving has been termed as a "silent killer." Thus, a thorough study of traffic accidents and the risk factors associated with fatigue-related casualties is of utmost importance. In this study, we analyze traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. The study data were extracted from the traffic accident database of China's Public Security Department. A logistic regression model is used to assess the effect of driver characteristics, type of vehicles, road conditions, and environmental factors on fatigue-related traffic accident occurrence and severity. On the one hand, male drivers, trucks, driving during midnight to dawn, and morning rush hours are identified as risk factors of fatigue-related crashes but do not necessarily result in severe casualties. Driving at night without street-lights contributes to fatigue-related crashes and severe casualties. On the other hand, while factors such as less experienced drivers, unsafe vehicle status, slippery roads, driving at night with street-lights, and weekends do not have significant effect on fatigue-related crashes, yet accidents associated with these factors are likely to have severe casualties. The empirical results of the present study have important policy implications on the reduction of fatigue-related crashes as well as their severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Manual estimation of fallout casualties. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gant, K.S.; Haaland, C.M.

1978-08-01

A method is described for enabling Emergency Operating Centers (EOCs) to estimate nuclear fallout casualties (fatalities and injuries) during and after nuclear attack without the aid of computers. This method is compatible with the current manual method for estimating initial weapons effects. The new technique requires that the EOCs have information on nuclear detonations and upper wind conditions and that they have maps, a protractor, map overlay material, grease pencils, worksheets, and pencils. In addition, they will need two tables of data and a fallout casualty (FC) template, all supplied in this report. Five steps are involved in the estimation of fallout casualties for an area: sketching fallout wind streamlines on a map overlay; plotting locations of nuclear detonations and their fallout streamlines; measuring crosswind and upwind distances to detonation points from the point of interest; reading radiation exposure tables and summing the contributions from different weapons to obtain the exposure at that point; and using the FC template with the protection factor profile for the area to estimate fatalities and injuries. The tables of radiation exposure are based on a modified Weapons Systems Evaluation Group-10 (WSEG-10) fallout model. The table of county protection factor profiles (PFPs) assumes a Community Shelter Plan (CSP) posture

Managing mild casualties in mass-casualty incidents: lessons learned from an aborted terrorist attack.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloch, Yuval H; Leiba, Adi; Veaacnin, Nurit; Paizer, Yohanan; Schwartz, Dagan; Kraskas, Ahuva; Weiss, Gali; Goldberg, Avishay; Bar-Dayan, Yaron

2007-01-01

Mildly injured and "worried well" patients can have profound effects on the management of a mass-casualty incident. The objective of this study is to describe the characteristics and lessons learned from an event that occurred on 28 August 2005 near the central bus station in Beer-Sheva, Israel. The unique profile of injuries allows for the examination of the medical and operational aspects of the management of mild casualties. Data were collected during and after the event, using patient records and formal debriefings. They were processed focusing on the characteristics of patient complaints, medical response, and the dynamics of admission. A total of 64 patients presented to the local emergency department, including two critical casualties. The remaining 62 patients were mildly injured or suffered from stress. Patient presentation to the emergency department was bi-phasic; during the first two hours following the attack (i.e., early phase), the rate of arrival was high (one patient every three minutes), and anxiety was the most frequent chief complaint. During the second phase, the rate of arrival was lower (one patient every 27 minutes), and the typical chief complaint was somatic. Additionally, tinnitus and complaints related to minor trauma also were recorded frequently. Psychiatric consultation was obtained for 58 (91%) of the patients. Social services were involved in the care of 47 of the patients (73%). Otolaryngology and surgery consultations were obtained for 45% and 44%, respectively. The need for some medical specialties (e.g., surgery and orthopedics) mainly was during the first phase, whereas others, mainly psychiatry and otolaryngology, were needed during both phases. Only 13 patients (20%) needed a consultation from internal medicine. Following a terrorist attack, a large number of mildly injured victims and those experiencing stress are to be expected, without a direct relation to the effectiveness of the attack. Mildly injured patients tend to

Integrating Urban Infrastructure and Health System Impact Modeling for Disasters and Mass-Casualty Events

Science.gov (United States)

Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.

2017-12-01

Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.

Developing and Organizing a Trauma System and Mass Casualty ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An effective trauma system may potentially manage mass casualty incidence ... Israel has a unique trauma system of organizing and managing an emergency event, ... Wisdom, motivation and pragmatism of the Israeli model may be useful to ...

Emergency radiology and mass casualty incidents-report of a mass casualty incident at a level 1 trauma center.

Science.gov (United States)

Bolster, Ferdia; Linnau, Ken; Mitchell, Steve; Roberge, Eric; Nguyen, Quynh; Robinson, Jeffrey; Lehnert, Bruce; Gross, Joel

2017-02-01

The aims of this article are to describe the events of a recent mass casualty incident (MCI) at our level 1 trauma center and to describe the radiology response to the event. We also describe the findings and recommendations of our radiology department after-action review. An MCI activation was triggered after an amphibious military vehicle, repurposed for tourist activities, carrying 37 passengers, collided with a charter bus carrying 45 passengers on a busy highway bridge in Seattle, WA, USA. There were 4 deaths at the scene, and 51 patients were transferred to local hospitals following prehospital scene triage. Nineteen patients were transferred to our level 1 trauma center. Eighteen casualties arrived within 72 min. Sixteen arrived within 1 h of the first patient arrival, and 1 casualty was transferred 3 h later having initially been assessed at another hospital. Eighteen casualties (94.7 %) underwent diagnostic imaging in the emergency department. Of these 18 casualties, 15 had a trauma series (portable chest x-ray and x-ray of pelvis). Whole-body trauma computed tomography scans (WBCT) were performed on 15 casualties (78.9 %), 12 were immediate and performed during the initial active phase of the MCI, and 3 WBCTs were delayed. The initial 12 WBCTs were completed in 101 min. The mean number of radiographic studies performed per patient was 3 (range 1-8), and the total number of injuries detected was 88. The surge in imaging requirements during an MCI can be significant and exceed normal operating capacity. This report of our radiology experience during a recent MCI and subsequent after-action review serves to provide an example of how radiology capacity and workflow functioned during an MCI, in order to provide emergency radiologists and response planners with practical recommendations for implementation in the event of a future MCI.

26 CFR 1.165-7 - Casualty losses.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... where damage by casualty has occurred to a building and ornamental or fruit trees used in a trade or business, the decrease in value shall be measured by taking the building and trees into account separately... building and trees. (ii) In determining a casualty loss involving real property and improvements thereon...

A third-party casualty risk model for unmanned aircraft system operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnyk, Richard; Schrage, Daniel; Volovoi, Vitali; Jimenez, Hernando

2014-01-01

Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) integration into the National Airspace System (NAS) is an important goal of many members of the Aerospace community including stakeholders such as the military, law enforcement and potential civil users of UAS. However, integration efforts have remained relatively limited due to safety concerns. Due to the nature of UAS, safety predictions must look beyond the system itself and take the operating environment into account. A framework that can link UAS reliability and physical characteristics to the effects on the bystander population is required. This study proposes using a Target Level of Safety approach and an event tree format, populated with data from existing studies that share characteristics of UAS crashes to enable casualty prediction for UAS operations. - Highlights: • A framework for predicting bystander casualties caused by UAS mishaps. • A method to facilitate UAS integration by linking system reliability to system safety. • A tool to help develop UAS certification standards

Eating Order: A 13-Week Trust Model Class for Dieting Casualties

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, Elizabeth G.

2008-01-01

Chronic dieting distorts eating behaviors and causes weight escalation. Desperation about losing weight results in pursuit of extreme weight loss measures. Instead of offering yet another diet, nutrition educators can teach chronic dieters (dieting casualties) to develop eating competence. Eating Order, a 13-week class for chronic dieters based on…

Optimization of Lyophilized Plasma for Use in Combat Casualties

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

ratio of NS infused at a rate of 165 ml/min, minus any given during the controlled hemorrhage to induce acidosis and coagulopathy. This reflects...antioxidant effect suggesting the potential to reduce acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiple organ failure in combat casualties. This model

Patient distribution in a mass casualty event of an airplane crash.

Science.gov (United States)

Postma, Ingri L E; Weel, Hanneke; Heetveld, Martin J; van der Zande, Ineke; Bijlsma, Taco S; Bloemers, Frank W; Goslings, J Carel

2013-11-01

Difficulties have been reported in the patient distribution during Mass Casualty Incidents. In this study we analysed the regional patient distribution protocol (PDP) and the actual patient distribution after the 2009 Turkish Airlines crash near Amsterdam. Analysis of the patient distribution of 126 surviving casualties of the crash by collecting data on medical treatment capacity, number of patients received per hospital, triage classification, Injury Severity Score (ISS), secondary transfers, distance from the crash site, and the critical mortality rate. The PDP holds ambiguous definitions of medical treatment capacity and was not followed. There were 14 receiving hospitals (distance from crash: 5.8-53.5 km); four hospitals received 133-213% of their treatment capacity, and 5 hospitals received 1 patient. Three hospitals within 20 km of the crash did not receive any casualties. Level I trauma centres received 89% of the 'critical' casualties and 92% of the casualties with ISS ≥ 16. Only 3 casualties were secondarily transferred, and no casualties died in, or on the way to hospital (critical mortality rate=0%). Patient distribution worked out well after the crash as secondary transfers were low and critical mortality rate was zero. However, the regional PDP was not followed in this MCI and casualties were unevenly distributed among hospitals. The PDP is indistinctive, and should be updated in cooperation between Emergency Services, surrounding hospitals, and Schiphol International Airport as a high risk area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.

2005-01-01

Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...

Amputations in natural disasters and mass casualties: staged approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolfson, Nikolaj

2012-10-01

Amputation is a commonly performed procedure during natural disasters and mass casualties related to industrial accidents and military conflicts where large civilian populations are subjected to severe musculoskeletal trauma. Crush injuries and crush syndrome, an often-overwhelming number of casualties, delayed presentations, regional cultural and other factors, all can mandate a surgical approach to amputation that is different than that typically used under non-disaster conditions. The following article will review the subject of amputation during natural disasters and mass casualties with emphasis on a staged approach to minimise post-surgical complications, especially infection.

Blast overpressure and fallout radiation dose models for casualty assessment and other purposes. Rev. ed.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bentley, P.R.

1981-12-01

The determination of blast overpressures and fallout radiation doses at points on a sufficiently fine grid, for any part or for the whole of the UK, and for any postulated attack, is an essential element in the systematic assessment of casualties, the estimation of numbers of homeless, and the evaluation of life-saving measures generally. Models are described which provide the required blast and dose values and which are intended to supersede existing models which were introduced in 1971. The factors which affect blast and, more particularly, dose values are discussed, and the way in which various factors are modelled is described. The models are incorporated into separate computer programs which are described, the outputs of which are stored on magnetic tape for subsequent use as required. (author)

The 43rd Infantry Division: Unit Cohesion and Neuropsychiatric Casualties

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Fuschak, K

1999-01-01

..., The Solomon Islands, from July to September 1943. The study explores the multiple causes of these casualties, to include ignorance of lessons learned regarding neuropsychiatric casualties in World War I, general unpreparedness, poor training...

The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries

Science.gov (United States)

Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick

2014-01-01

The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…

Five years after the accident, whiplash casualties still have poorer quality of life in the physical domain than other mildly injured casualties: analysis of the ESPARR cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Tournier, Charlène; Hours, Martine; Charnay, Pierrette; Chossegros, Laetitia; Tardy, Hélène

2016-01-05

This study aims to compare health status and quality of life five years after a road accident between casualties with whiplash versus other mild injuries, to compare evolution of quality of life at 1 and 5 years after the accident, and to explore the relation between initial injury (whiplash vs. other) and quality of life. The study used data from the ESPARR cohort (a representative cohort of road accident casualties) and included 167 casualties with "pure" whiplash and a population of 185 casualties with other mild injuries (MAIS-1). All subjects with lesions classified as cervical contusion (AIS code 310402) or neck sprain (AIS code 640278) were considered as whiplash casualties. Diagnosis was made by physicians, at the outset of hospital care, based on interview, clinical findings and X-ray. Whiplash injuries were then classified following the Quebec classification (grades 1 and 2). Quality of life was assessed on the WHOQoL-Bref questionnaire. Correlations between explanatory variables and quality of life were explored by Poisson regression and variance analysis. Between 1 and 5 years, global QoL improved for both whiplash and non-whiplash casualties; but, considering the two whiplash groups separately, improvement in grade 2 was much less than in grade 1. At 5 years, grade-2 whiplash casualties were more dissatisfied with their health (39.4%; p whiplash (24.3%) or grade-1 whiplash casualties (27.0%). Deteriorated quality of life in the mental, social and environmental domains was mainly related to psychological and socioeconomic factors for both whiplash and other mildly injured road-accident casualties. While PTSD was a major factor for the physical domain, whiplash remained a predictive factor after adjustment on PTSD; unsatisfactory health at 5 years, with deteriorated quality of life in the physical domain, was observed specifically in the whiplash group, pain playing a predominant intermediate role. Deteriorated quality of life in the physical domain

Mass casualty triage after an airplane crash near Amsterdam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postma, Ingri L. E.; Weel, Hanneke; Heetveld, Martin J.; van der Zande, Ineke; Bijlsma, Taco S.; Bloemers, Frank W.; Goslings, J. Carel

2013-01-01

Triage is an important aspect of the management of mass casualty incidents. This study describes the triage after the Turkish Airlines Crash near Amsterdam in 2009. The results of the triage and the injuries of P3 casualties were evaluated. In addition, the role of the trauma mechanism and its

Survey of trauma registry data on tourniquet use in pediatric war casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

Kragh, John F; Cooper, Arthur; Aden, James K; Dubick, Michael A; Baer, David G; Wade, Charles E; Blackbourne, Lorne H

2012-12-01

Previously, we reported on the use of emergency tourniquets to stop bleeding in war casualties, but virtually all the data were from adults. Because no pediatric-specific cohort of casualties receiving emergency tourniquets existed, we aimed to fill knowledge gaps on the care and outcomes of this group by surveying data from a trauma registry to refine device designs and clinical training. A retrospective review of data from a trauma registry yielded an observational cohort of 88 pediatric casualties at US military hospitals in theater on whom tourniquets were used from May 17, 2003, to December 25, 2009. Of the 88 casualties in the study group, 72 were male and 16 were female patients. Ages averaged 11 years (median, 11 years; range, 4-17 years). There were 7 dead and 81 survivor outcomes for a trauma survival rate of 93%. Survivor and dead casualties were similar in all independent variables measured except hospital stay duration (median, 5 days and 1 day, respectively). Six casualties (7%) had neither extremity nor external injury in that they had no lesion indicating tourniquet use. The survival rate of the present study's casualties is similar to that of 3 recent large nonpediatric-specific studies. Although current emergency tourniquets were ostensibly designed for modern adult soldiers, tourniquet makers, perhaps unknowingly, produced tourniquets that fit children. The rate of unindicated tourniquets, 7%, implied that potential users need better diagnostic training. Level 4; case series, therapeutic study.

Managing the surge in demand for blood following mass casualty events: Early automatic restocking may preserve red cell supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Glasgow, Simon; Vasilakis, Christos; Perkins, Zane; Brundage, Susan; Tai, Nigel; Brohi, Karim

2016-07-01

Traumatic hemorrhage is a leading preventable cause of mortality following mass casualty events (MCEs). Improving outcomes requires adequate in-hospital provision of high-volume red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. This study investigated strategies for optimizing RBC provision to casualties in MCEs using simulation modeling. A computerized simulation model of a UK major trauma center (TC) transfusion system was developed. The model used input data from past MCEs and civilian and military trauma registries. We simulated the effect of varying on-shelf RBC stock hold and the timing of externally restocking RBC supplies on TC treatment capacity across increasing loads of priority one (P1) and two (P2) casualties from an event. Thirty-five thousand simulations were performed. A casualty load of 20 P1s and P2s under standard TC RBC stock conditions left 35% (95% confidence interval, 32-38%) of P1s and 7% (4-10%) of P2s inadequately treated for hemorrhage. Additionally, exhaustion of type O emergency RBC stocks (a surrogate for reaching surge capacity) occurred in a median of 10 hours (IQR, 5 to >12 hours). Doubling casualty load increased this to 60% (57-63%) and 30% (26-34%), respectively, with capacity reached in 2 hours (1-3 hours). The model identified a minimum requirement of 12 U of on-shelf RBCs per P1/P2 casualty received to prevent surge capacity being reached. Restocking supplies in an MCE versus greater permanent on-shelf RBC stock holds was considered at increasing hourly intervals. T-test analysis showed no difference between stock hold versus supply restocking with regard to overall outcomes for MCEs up to 80 P1s and P2s in size (p < 0.05), provided the restock occurred within 6 hours. Even limited-sized MCEs threaten to overwhelm TC transfusion systems. An early-automated push approach to restocking RBCs initiated by central suppliers can produce equivocal outcomes compared with holding excess stock permanently at TCs. Therapeutic/care management study

Management of Mass Casualty Burn Disasters

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cancio, Leopoldo C; Pruitt, Basil A

2005-01-01

Mass casualty burn disasters are potentially challenging, in part because the majority of health care providers are inexperienced in the care of thermally injured patients and in part because of the...

Level I center triage and mass casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoey, Brian A; Schwab, C William

2004-05-01

The world has been marked by a recent series of high-profile terrorist attacks, including the attack of September 11, 2001, in New York City. Similar to natural disasters, these attacks often result in a large number of casualties necessitating triage strategies. The end of the twentieth century was marked by the development of trauma systems in the United States and abroad. By their very nature, trauma centers are best equipped to handle mass casualties resulting from natural and manmade disasters. Triage assessment tools and scoring systems have evolved to facilitate this triage process and to potentially reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with these events.

Transfusion-Associated Microchimerism in Combat Casualties

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dunne, James R; Lee, Tzong-Hae; Burns, Christopher; Cardo, Lisa J; Curry, Kathleen; Busch, Michael P

2007-01-01

...) in civilian trauma patients receiving allogenic red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. We explored the incidence of TA-MC in combat casualties receiving FrWB compared with patients receiving standard stored RBC transfusions. Methods...

Manipulating the Geometric Computer-aided Design of the Operational Requirements-based Casualty Assessment Model within BRL-CAD

Science.gov (United States)

2018-03-30

aided Design of the Operational Requirements-based Casualty Assessment Model within BRL-CAD 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ...upper_arm_r.s upper_arm_r.s-bool r upper_leg_l.r - lower_leg_l.s-bool r upper_leg_r.r - lower_leg_r.s-bool r upper_arm_r.r - lower_arm_r.s-bool r ...upper_arm_l.r - lower_arm_l.s-bool r pelvis.r - hip_l.s-bool - hip_r.s-bool - upper_leg_l.s-bool - upper_leg_r.s-bool r thorax.r - shoulder_l.s-bool

Mass Casualty Chemical Incident Operational Framework, Assessment and Best Practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greenwalt, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hibbard, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-08-09

Emergency response agencies in most US communities are organized, sized, and equipped to manage those emergencies normally expected. Hospitals in particular do not typically have significant excess capacity to handle massive numbers of casualties, as hospital space is an expensive luxury if not needed. Unfortunately this means that in the event of a mass casualty chemical incident the emergency response system will be overwhelmed. This document provides a self-assessment means for emergency managers to examine their response system and identify shortfalls. It also includes lessons from a detailed analysis of five communities: Baltimore, Boise, Houston, Nassau County, and New Orleans. These lessons provide a list of potential critical decisions to allow for pre-planning and a library of best practices that may be helpful in reducing casualties in the event of an incident.

Developing a Mass Casualty Surge Capacity Protocol for Emergency Medical Services to Use for Patient Distribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Shartar, Samuel E; Moore, Brooks L; Wood, Lori M

2017-12-01

Metropolitan areas must be prepared to manage large numbers of casualties related to a major incident. Most US cities do not have adequate trauma center capacity to manage large-scale mass casualty incidents (MCIs). Creating surge capacity requires the distribution of casualties to hospitals that are not designated as trauma centers. Our objectives were to extrapolate MCI response research into operational objectives for MCI distribution plan development; formulate a patient distribution model based on research, hospital capacities, and resource availability; and design and disseminate a casualty distribution tool for use by emergency medical services (EMS) personnel to distribute patients to the appropriate level of care. Working with hospitals within the region, we refined emergency department surge capacity for MCIs and developed a prepopulated tool for EMS providers to use to distribute higher-acuity casualties to trauma centers and lower-acuity casualties to nontrauma hospitals. A mechanism to remove a hospital from the list of available resources, if it is overwhelmed with patients who self-transport to the location, also was put into place. The number of critically injured survivors from an MCI has proven to be consistent, averaging 7% to 10%. Moving critically injured patients to level 1 trauma centers can result in a 25% reduction in mortality, when compared with care at nontrauma hospitals. US cities face major gaps in the surge capacity needed to manage an MCI. Sixty percent of "walking wounded" casualties self-transport to the closest hospital(s) to the incident. Directing critically ill patients to designated trauma centers has the potential to reduce mortality associated with the event. When applied to MCI responses, damage-control principles reduce resource utilization and optimize surge capacity. A universal system for mass casualty triage was identified and incorporated into the region's EMS. Flagship regional coordinating hospitals were designated

Casualties and threshold effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mays, C.W.; National Cancer Inst., Bethesda

1988-01-01

Radiation effects like cancer are denoted as casualties. Other radiation effects occur almost in everyone when the radiation dose is sufficiently high. One then speaks of radiation effects with a threshold dose. In this article the author puts his doubt about this classification of radiation effects. He argues that some effects of exposure to radiation do not fit in this classification. (H.W.). 19 refs.; 2 figs.; 1 tab

Implementing RFID technology in a novel triage system during a simulated mass casualty situation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jokela, Jorma; Simons, Tomi; Kuronen, Pentti; Tammela, Juha; Jalasvirta, Pertti; Nurmi, Jouni; Harkke, Ville; Castrén, Maaret

2008-01-01

The purpose of this study is to determine the applicability of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology and commercial cellular networks to provide an online triage system for handling mass casualty situations. This was tested by a using a pilot system for a simulated mass casualty situation during a military field exercise. The system proved to be usable. Compared to the currently used system, it also dramatically improves the general view of mass casualty situations and enhances medical emergency readiness in a military medical setting. The system can also be adapted without any difficulties by the civilian sector for the management of mass casualty disasters.

[The role of patient flow and surge capacity for in-hospital response in mass casualty events].

Science.gov (United States)

Sefrin, Peter; Kuhnigk, Herbert

2008-03-01

Mass casualty events make demands on emergency services and disaster control. However, optimized in- hospital response defines the quality of definitive care. Therefore, German federal law governs the role of hospitals in mass casualty incidents. In hospital casualty surge is depending on resources that have to be expanded with a practicable alarm plan. Thus, in-hospital mass casualty management planning is recommended to be organized by specialized persons. To minimise inhospital patient overflow casualty surge principles have to be implemented in both, pre-hospital and in-hospital disaster planning. World soccer championship 2006 facilitated the initiation of surge and damage control principles in in-hospital disaster planning strategies for German hospitals. The presented concept of strict control of in-hospital patient flow using surge principles minimises the risk of in-hospital breakdown and increases definitive hospital treatment capacity in mass casualty incidents.

A markov decision process model for the optimal dispatch of military medical evacuation assets.

Science.gov (United States)

Keneally, Sean K; Robbins, Matthew J; Lunday, Brian J

2016-06-01

We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine aerial military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatch policies in a combat environment. The problem of deciding which aeromedical asset to dispatch to each service request is complicated by the threat conditions at the service locations and the priority class of each casualty event. We assume requests for MEDEVAC support arrive sequentially, with the location and the priority of each casualty known upon initiation of the request. The United States military uses a 9-line MEDEVAC request system to classify casualties as being one of three priority levels: urgent, priority, and routine. Multiple casualties can be present at a single casualty event, with the highest priority casualty determining the priority level for the casualty event. Moreover, an armed escort may be required depending on the threat level indicated by the 9-line MEDEVAC request. The proposed MDP model indicates how to optimally dispatch MEDEVAC helicopters to casualty events in order to maximize steady-state system utility. The utility gained from servicing a specific request depends on the number of casualties, the priority class for each of the casualties, and the locations of both the servicing ambulatory helicopter and casualty event. Instances of the dispatching problem are solved using a relative value iteration dynamic programming algorithm. Computational examples are used to investigate optimal dispatch policies under different threat situations and armed escort delays; the examples are based on combat scenarios in which United States Army MEDEVAC units support ground operations in Afghanistan.

Westgate Shootings: An Emergency Department Approach to a Mass-casualty Incident.

Science.gov (United States)

Wachira, Benjamin W; Abdalla, Ramadhani O; Wallis, Lee A

2014-10-01

At approximately 12:30 pm on Saturday September 21, 2013, armed assailants attacked the upscale Westgate shopping mall in the Westlands area of Nairobi, Kenya. Using the seven key Major Incident Medical Management and Support (MIMMS) principles, command, safety, communication, assessment, triage, treatment, and transport, the Aga Khan University Hospital, Nairobi (AKUH,N) emergency department (ED) successfully coordinated the reception and care of all the casualties brought to the hospital. This report describes the AKUH,N ED response to the first civilian mass-casualty shooting incident in Kenya, with the hope of informing the development and implementation of mass-casualty emergency preparedness plans by other EDs and hospitals in Kenya, appropriate for the local health care system.

Occupational safety data and casualty rates for the uranium fuel cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Donnell, F.R.; Hoy, H.C.

1981-10-01

Occupational casualty (injuries, illnesses, fatalities, and lost workdays) and production data are presented and used to calculate occupational casualty incidence rates for technologies that make up the uranium fuel cycle, including: mining, milling, conversion, and enrichment of uranium; fabrication of reactor fuel; transportation of uranium and fuel elements; generation of electric power; and transmission of electric power. Each technology is treated in a separate chapter. All data sources are referenced. All steps used to calculate normalized occupational casualty incidence rates from the data are presented. Rates given include fatalities, serious cases, and lost workdays per 100 man-years worked, per 10 12 Btu of energy output, and per other appropriate units of output

Yale and the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bowers, J.Z.

1983-01-01

This is a description, based largely on personal discussions, of the contributions of men from the Yale University School of Medicine to the saga of the immediate and long-term studies on the medical effects of the atomic bombs at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. They played key roles in the immediate studies of bomb effects, in the creation of long-term studies of delayed effects, and in elevating the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission after 1955 to a position of excellence in its studies and relations with the Japanese. The accumulation of the information presented in this paper derives from research for the preparation of the history of the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission. In 1975, the commission was passed to Japanese leadership as the Radiation Effects Research Foundation

Westinghouse GOCO conduct of casualty drills

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ames, C.P.

1996-02-01

Purpose of this document is to provide Westinghouse Government Owned Contractor Operated (GOCO) Facilities with information that can be used to implement or improve drill programs. Elements of this guide are highly recommended for use when implementing a new drill program or when assessing an existing program. Casualty drills focus on response to abnormal conditions presenting a hazard to personnel, environment, or equipment; they are distinct from Emergency Response Exercises in which the training emphasis is on site, field office, and emergency management team interaction. The DOE documents which require team training and conducting drills in nuclear facilities and should be used as guidance in non-nuclear facilities are: DOE 5480.19 (Chapter 1 of Attachment I) and DOE 5480.20 (Chapter 1, paragraphs 7 a. and d. of continuing training). Casualty drills should be an integral part of the qualification and training program at every DOE facility

The 2004 Fitts Lecture: Current Perspective on Combat Casualty Care

Science.gov (United States)

2005-07-01

deliver this lecture, I actually wondered whether he had called the wrong number. Dr. Basil Pruitt described Dr. William P. Fitts in his 1992 Fitts Lecture...in our ability to care for injured casualties in a deployed setting. Dr. Basil Pruitt eloquently described the interaction between the AAST and...ation ( ABA ) verified burn centers (Fig. 3) in proximity to the USAF hubs.11 We anticipated between 500 and 2,500 burn casualties and created a

[Mass casualty incidents - current concepts and developments].

Science.gov (United States)

Savinsky, Godo; Stuhr, Markus; Kappus, Stefan; Trümpler, Stefan; Wenderoth, Stephan; Wohlers, Jan-Hauke; Paschen, Hans-Richard; Kerner, Thoralf

2014-12-01

Medical concepts and strategies are permanently changing. Due to the emergency response in a mass casualty incident everyone who is involved has to work together with different organisations and public authorities, which are not part of the regular emergency medical service. Within the last 25 years throughout the whole country of Germany the role of a "chief emergency physician" has been implemented and in preparation for the FIFA World Cup 2006 mobile treatment units were set up. In 2007, special units of the "Medical Task Force" - funded by the german state - were introduced and have been established by now. They will be a permanent part of regional plannings for mass casualty incidents. This article highlights current concepts and developments in different parts of Germany. © Georg Thieme Verlag Stuttgart · New York.

19 CFR 158.21 - Allowance in duties for casualty, loss, or theft while in Customs custody.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 19 Customs Duties 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Allowance in duties for casualty, loss, or theft... LOST, DAMAGED, ABANDONED, OR EXPORTED Casualty, Loss, or Theft While in Customs Custody § 158.21 Allowance in duties for casualty, loss, or theft while in Customs custody. Section 563(a), Tariff Act of...

The influence of car registration year on driver casualty rates in Great Britain.

Science.gov (United States)

Broughton, Jeremy

2012-03-01

A previous paper analysed data from the British national road accident reporting system to investigate the influence upon car driver casualty rates of the general type of car being driven and its year of first registration. A statistical model was fitted to accident data from 2001 to 2005, and this paper updates the principal results using accident data from 2003 to 2007. Attention focuses upon the role of year of first registration since this allows the influence of developments in car design upon occupant casualty numbers to be evaluated. Three additional topics are also examined with these accident data. Changes over time in frontal and side impacts are compared. Changes in the combined risk for the two drivers involved in a car-car collision are investigated, being the net result of changes in secondary safety and aggressivity. Finally, the results of the new model relating to occupant protection are related to an index that had been developed previously to analyse changes over time in the secondary safety of the car fleet. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

46 CFR 122.220 - Records of a voyage resulting in a marine casualty.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

....220 Section 122.220 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER... OPERATIONS Marine Casualties and Voyage Records § 122.220 Records of a voyage resulting in a marine casualty... custody thereof, shall make these records available upon request, to a duly authorized investigating...

War casualties: recent trends in evacuation, triage and the golden hour

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safdar, C. A.

2010-01-01

Prompt medical treatment and early evacuation is the goal of military medicine in the battlefield. 'Triage' is a process of sorting the casualties according to the severity of injury and the prioritization of treatment. In trauma management 'Golden Hour' is the first sixty minutes or so after injury; this emphasizes that the chances of the victim's survival are the greatest if definitive care is given as early as possible. Our evacuation protocols follow the triage but the time to treatment is beyond sixty minutes. Many Armies have developed evacuation systems which allow the casualty to be seen within this specified time. This has been achieved by streamlining the evacuation chain, extensive incorporation of air transport and training of paramedics in advanced life support measures. In line with the modern trends we need to modernize our own system of casualty evacuation and treatment. (author)

Civilian casualties of Iraqi ballistic missile attack to

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khaji Ali

2012-06-01

Full Text Available 【Abstract】Objective: To determine the pattern of causalities of Iraqi ballistic missile attacks on Tehran, the capital of Iran, during Iraq-Iran war. Methods: Data were extracted from the Army Staff Headquarters based on daily reports of Iranian army units during the war. Results: During 52 days, Tehran was stroked by 118 Al-Hussein missiles (a modified version of Scud missile. Eighty-six missiles landed in populated areas. During Iraqi missile attacks, 422 civilians died and 1 579 injured (4.9 deaths and 18.3 injuries per missile. During 52 days, 8.1 of the civilians died and 30.4 injured daily. Of the cases that died, 101 persons (24% were excluded due to the lack of information. Among the remainders, 179 (55.8% were male and 142 (44.2% were female. The mean age of the victims was 25.3 years±19.9 years. Our results show that the high accuracy of modified Scud missiles landed in crowded ar-eas is the major cause of high mortality in Tehran. The pres-ence of suitable warning system and shelters could reduce civilian casualties. Conclusion: The awareness and readiness of civilian defense forces, rescue services and all medical facilities for dealing with mass casualties caused by ballistic missile at-tacks are necessary. Key words: Mortality; War; Mass casualty incidents; Wounds and injuries

Red Tides: Mass casualty and whole blood at sea Red Tides.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Benjamin T; Lin, Andrew H; Clark, Susan C; Cap, Andrew P; Dubose, Joseph J

2018-02-13

The U.S. Navy's casualty-receiving ships provide remote damage control resuscitation (RDCR) platforms to treat injured combatants deployed afloat and ashore. We report a significant mass casualty incident aboard the USS Bataan, and the most warm fresh whole blood (WFWB) transfused at sea for traumatic hemorrhagic shock since the Vietnam War. Casualty-receiving ships have robust medical capabilities, including a frozen blood bank with packed red blood cells (pRBC) and fresh frozen plasma (FFP). The blood supply can be augmented with WFWB collected from a "walking blood bank" (WBB). Following a helicopter crash, six patients were transported by MV-22 Osprey to the USS Bataan. Patient 1 had a pelvic fracture, was managed with a pelvic binder, and received 4 units of pRBC, 2 units of FFP, and 6 units of WFWB. Patient 2, with a comminuted tibia and fibula fracture, underwent lower extremity four-compartment fasciotomy, and received 4 units of WFWB. Patient 3 underwent several procedures, including left anterior thoracotomy, aortic cross-clamping, exploratory laparotomy, small bowel resection, and tracheostomy. He received 8 units of pRBC, 8 units of FFP, and 28 units of WFWB. Patients 4 and 5 had suspected spine injuries and were managed non-operatively. Patient 6, with open tibia and fibula fractures, underwent lower extremity four-compartment fasciotomy with tibia external fixation and received 1 unit of WFWB. All patients survived aeromedical evacuation to a Role 4 medical facility and subsequent transfer to local hospitals. Maritime military mass casualty incidents are challenging, but the U.S. Navy's casualty-receiving ships are ready to perform RDCR at sea. Activation of the ship's WBB to transfuse WFWB is essential for hemostatic resuscitations afloat. V STUDY TYPE: Case series.

Performance of portable ventilators for mass-casualty care.

Science.gov (United States)

Blakeman, Thomas C; Rodriquez, Dario; Dorlac, Warren C; Hanseman, Dennis J; Hattery, Ellie; Branson, Richard D

2011-10-01

Disasters and mass-casualty scenarios may overwhelm medical resources regardless of the level of preparation. Disaster response requires medical equipment, such as ventilators, that can be operated under adverse circumstances and should be able to provide respiratory support for a variety of patient populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three portable ventilators designed to provide ventilatory support outside the hospital setting and in mass-casualty incidents, and their adherence to the Task Force for Mass Critical Care recommendations for mass-casualty care ventilators. Each device was evaluated at minimum and maximum respiratory rate and tidal volume settings to determine the accuracy of set versus delivered VT at lung compliance settings of 0.02, 0.08 and 0.1 L/cm H20 with corresponding resistance settings of 10, 25, and 5 cm H2O/L/sec, to simulate patients with ARDS, severe asthma, and normal lungs. Additionally, different FIO2 settings with each device (if applicable) were evaluated to determine accuracy of FIO2 delivery and evaluate the effect on delivered VT. Ventilators also were tested for duration of battery life. VT decreased with all three devices as compliance decreased. The decrease was more pronounced when the internal compressor was activated. At the 0.65 FIO2 setting on the MCV 200, the measured FIO2 varied widely depending on the set VT. Battery life range was 311-582 minutes with the 73X having the longest battery life. Delivered VT decreased toward the end of battery life with the SAVe having the largest decrease. The respiratory rate on the SAVe also decreased approaching the end of battery life. The 73X and MCV 200 were the closest to satisfying the Task Force for Mass Critical Care requirements for mass casualty ventilators, although neither had the capability to provide PEEP. The 73X provided the most consistent tidal volume delivery across all compliances, had the longest battery duration and the

Disaster metrics: quantitative benchmarking of hospital surge capacity in trauma-related multiple casualty events.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayram, Jamil D; Zuabi, Shawki; Subbarao, Italo

2011-06-01

Hospital surge capacity in multiple casualty events (MCE) is the core of hospital medical response, and an integral part of the total medical capacity of the community affected. To date, however, there has been no consensus regarding the definition or quantification of hospital surge capacity. The first objective of this study was to quantitatively benchmark the various components of hospital surge capacity pertaining to the care of critically and moderately injured patients in trauma-related MCE. The second objective was to illustrate the applications of those quantitative parameters in local, regional, national, and international disaster planning; in the distribution of patients to various hospitals by prehospital medical services; and in the decision-making process for ambulance diversion. A 2-step approach was adopted in the methodology of this study. First, an extensive literature search was performed, followed by mathematical modeling. Quantitative studies on hospital surge capacity for trauma injuries were used as the framework for our model. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization triage categories (T1-T4) were used in the modeling process for simplicity purposes. Hospital Acute Care Surge Capacity (HACSC) was defined as the maximum number of critical (T1) and moderate (T2) casualties a hospital can adequately care for per hour, after recruiting all possible additional medical assets. HACSC was modeled to be equal to the number of emergency department beds (#EDB), divided by the emergency department time (EDT); HACSC = #EDB/EDT. In trauma-related MCE, the EDT was quantitatively benchmarked to be 2.5 (hours). Because most of the critical and moderate casualties arrive at hospitals within a 6-hour period requiring admission (by definition), the hospital bed surge capacity must match the HACSC at 6 hours to ensure coordinated care, and it was mathematically benchmarked to be 18% of the staffed hospital bed capacity. Defining and quantitatively benchmarking the

Net-bottom Cage Inserts for Water Bird Casualties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jackie Belle

2017-10-01

Full Text Available My Bright Idea is a net-bottomed cage insert, which is used to support pelagic avian casualties. The idea was designed and modified by the International Bird Rescue in California (Bird Rescue.

Effects of ship casualties on reactor safety and marine reactor design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agena, H.H.

1978-01-01

Ship casualties such as collision, grounding, fire and explosions, leakage and partial flooding may severely impair the safety of the nuclear reactor plant and result in nuclear hazards to the crew and the environment. Engineered safeguards are being discussed for protection against such consequences: manoeuvrability, structural (passive) collision and fire protection, protection against external fires and pressure waves, after heat transmission in case of a casualty, and after heat transmission out off the sunk wreck. Existing requirements will be discussed, shortly

Casualties of peace: an analysis of casualties admitted to the intensive care unit during the negotiation of the comprehensive Colombian process of peace.

Science.gov (United States)

Ordoñez, Carlos A; Manzano-Nunez, Ramiro; Naranjo, Maria Paula; Foianini, Esteban; Cevallos, Cecibel; Londoño, Maria Alejandra; Sanchez Ortiz, Alvaro I; García, Alberto F; Moore, Ernest E

2018-01-01

After 52 years of war in 2012, the Colombian government began the negotiation of a process of peace, and by November 2012, a truce was agreed. We sought to analyze casualties who were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) before and during the period of the negotiation of the comprehensive Colombian process of peace. Retrospective study of hostile casualties admitted to the ICU at a Level I trauma center from January 2011 to December 2016. Patients were subsequently divided into two groups: those seen before the declaration of the process of peace truce (November 2012) and those after (November 2012-December 2016). Patients were compared with respect to time periods. Four hundred forty-eight male patients were admitted to the emergency room. Of these, 94 required ICU care. Sixty-five casualties presented before the truce and 29 during the negotiation period. Median injury severity score was significantly higher before the truce. Furthermore, the odds of presenting with severe trauma (ISS > 15) were significantly higher before the truce (OR, 5.4; (95% CI, 2.0-14.2); p  < 0.01). There was a gradual decrease in the admissions to the ICU, and the performance of medical and operative procedures during the period observed. We describe a series of war casualties that required ICU care in a period of peace negotiation. Despite our limitations, our study presents a decline in the occurrence, severity, and consequences of war injuries probably as a result in part of the negotiation of the process of peace. The hysteresis of these results should only be interpreted for their implications in the understanding of the peace-health relationship and must not be overinterpreted and used for any political end.

Investigating the Relationship Between Drone Warfare and Civilian Casualties in Gaza

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dr. Ann Rogers

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs, better known as drones, are increasingly touted as ‘humanitarian’ weapons that contribute positively to fighting just wars and saving innocent lives. At the same time, civilian casualties have become the most visible and criticized aspect of drone warfare. It is argued here that drones contribute to civilian casualties not in spite of, but because of, their unique attributes. They greatly extend war across time and space, pulling more potential threats and targets into play over long periods, and because they are low-risk and highly accurate, they are more likely to be used. The assumption that drones save lives obscures a new turn in strategic thinking that sees states such as Israel and the US rely on large numbers of small, highly discriminating attacks applied over time to achieve their objectives. This examination of Israel’s 2014 war in Gaza argues that civilian casualties are not an unexpected or unintended consequence of drone warfare, but an entirely predictable outcome.

46 CFR 28.80 - Report of casualty.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY UNINSPECTED VESSELS REQUIREMENTS FOR COMMERCIAL FISHING INDUSTRY... routine duties. (3) Loss of a vessel. (4) Damage to or by a vessel, its cargo, apparel or gear, except for... industry vessel must submit a report of each casualty involving that vessel to an organization listed in...

46 CFR 122.210 - Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in... PASSENGERS OPERATIONS Marine Casualties and Voyage Records § 122.210 Alcohol or drug use by individuals... alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in the casualty. (b) The owner, agent, master, or...

The use of analgesia in mountain rescue casualties with moderate or severe pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellerton, John Alexander; Greene, Mike; Paal, Peter

2013-06-01

To assess the effectiveness of analgesia used in mountain rescue (MR) in casualties with moderate or severe pain. To determine if a verbal numeric pain score is practical in this environment. To describe the analgesic strategies used by MR. Prospective, descriptive study. Fifty-one MR teams in England and Wales. The study period was 1 September 2008 to 31 August 2010. 92 MR casualties with a pain scoreof 4/10 or greater. 38% of casualties achieved a pain reduction of 50% or greater in their initial score at 15 min and 60.2% had achieved this at handover. The initial pain score was 8 (median), reducing to 5 at 15 min and 3 at handover. The mean pain reduction was 2.5 ± 2.4 at 15 min and 3.9 ± 2.5 at handover. 80 casualties (87%) were treated with an opioid and seven had two different opioids administered. Seven main strategies were identified in which the principal agent was entonox, intramuscular opioid, oral analgesia, fentanyl lozenge, intranasal or intravenous opioid. The choice of strategy varied with the skills of the casualty carer. Pain should be assessed using a pain score. When possible, intravenous opioid is the gold standard to achieve early and continuing pain control in patients with moderate or severe pain. Entonox and oral analgesics, as sole agents, have limited use in moderate or severe pain. Intranasal opioid and fentanyl lozenge are effective, and appropriate in MR. Research priorities include bioavailability in different environmental conditions and patient's satisfaction with their pain management.

One year after mild injury: comparison of health status and quality of life between casualties with whiplash versus other injuries

OpenAIRE

HOURS, Martine; KHATI, Inès; CHARNAY, Pierrette; CHOSSEGROS, Laetitia; TARDY, Hélène; TOURNIER, Charlène; PERRINE, Anne-Laure; LUAUTE, Jacques; LAUMON, Bernard

2014-01-01

Objectives: To compare health status, family and occupational impact and quality of life one year after an accident between casualties with whiplash versus other mild injuries, and to explore the relation between initial injury (whiplash vs. other) and quality of life. Design: Prospective cohort study. Subjects: The study used data from the ESPARR cohort (a representative cohort of road accident casualties) and included 173 casualties with 'pure' whiplash and a population of 207 casualties wi...

Marine Information for Safety and Law Enforcement (MISLE) Casualty and Pollution Incidents, Guam, 2015, US Coast Guard

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Marine Casualty and Pollution Data files provide details about marine casualty and pollution incidents investigated by Coast Guard Offices throughout the United...

Decision-support information system to manage mass casualty incidents at a level 1 trauma center.

Science.gov (United States)

Bar-El, Yaron; Tzafrir, Sara; Tzipori, Idan; Utitz, Liora; Halberthal, Michael; Beyar, Rafael; Reisner, Shimon

2013-12-01

Mass casualty incidents are probably the greatest challenge to a hospital. When such an event occurs, hospitals are required to instantly switch from their routine activity to conditions of great uncertainty and confront needs that exceed resources. We describe an information system that was uniquely designed for managing mass casualty events. The web-based system is activated when a mass casualty event is declared; it displays relevant operating procedures, checklists, and a log book. The system automatically or semiautomatically initiates phone calls and public address announcements. It collects real-time data from computerized clinical and administrative systems in the hospital, and presents them to the managing team in a clear graphic display. It also generates periodic reports and summaries of available or scarce resources that are sent to predefined recipients. When the system was tested in a nationwide exercise, it proved to be an invaluable tool for informed decision making in demanding and overwhelming situations such as mass casualty events.

Analyzing the Effects of Urban Combat on Daily Casualty Rates

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Yazilitas, Hakan

2004-01-01

.... The available data set contains measurements about the battles like initial strengths, daily casualties, terrain, front width, linear density, attacker's and defender's country, and armor losses...

Importance of banked tissues in the management of mass nuclear casualties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, Rita; Bhatnagar, P.K.

2009-01-01

Nuclear detonations are the most devastating of the weapons of mass destruction. There will be large number of casualties on detonation of nuclear weapon. Biological tissues like bone, skin, amniotic membrane and other soft tissues can be used for repair or reconstruction of the injured part of the body. Tissues from human donor can be processed and banked for orthopaedic, spinal, trauma and other surgical procedures. Radiation technology is used to sterilize the tissues to make them safe for clinical use. This paper highlights the importance of such banked tissues in the management of the casualties. (author)

Provenancing of unidentified World War II casualties: Application of strontium and oxygen isotope analysis in tooth enamel.

Science.gov (United States)

Font, Laura; Jonker, Geert; van Aalderen, Patric A; Schiltmans, Els F; Davies, Gareth R

2015-01-01

In 2010 and 2012 two sets of unidentified human remains of two World War II soldiers were recovered in the area where the 1944-1945 Kapelsche Veer bridgehead battle took place in The Netherlands. Soldiers of four Allied nations: British Royal Marine Commandos, Free Norwegian Commandos, Free Poles and Canadians, fought against the German Army in this battle. The identification of these two casualties could not be achieved using dental record information of DNA analysis. The dental records of Missing in Action soldiers of the Allied nations did not match with the dental records of the two casualties. A DNA profile was determined for the casualty found in 2010, but no match was found. Due to the lack of information on the identification of the casualties provided by routine methods, an isotope study was conducted in teeth from the soldiers to constrain their provenance. The isotope study concluded that the tooth enamel isotope composition for both casualties matched with an origin from the United Kingdom. For one of the casualties a probable origin from the United Kingdom was confirmed, after the isotope study was conducted, by the recognition of a characteristic belt buckle derived from a Royal Marine money belt, only issued to British Royal Marines, found with the remains of the soldier. Copyright © 2014 Forensic Science Society. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Difference in First Aid Activity During Mass Casualty Training Based on Having Taken an Educational Course.

Science.gov (United States)

Yanagawa, Youichi; Omori, Kazuhiko; Ishikawa, Kouhei; Takeuchi, Ikuto; Jitsuiki, Kei; Yoshizawa, Toshihiko; Sato, Jun; Matsumoto, Hideyuki; Tsuchiya, Masaru; Osaka, Hiromichi

2017-11-20

The Japanese Association for Disaster Medicine developed a mass casualty life support (MCLS) course to improve cooperation among medical practitioners during a disaster, which is essential for reducing the rates of preventable disaster death. We investigated whether there was difference in first aid activity among members of the ambulance service during mass casualty training based on having taken the MCLS course. Mass casualty training was held at the fire department of Numazu City. Twenty-one ambulance service parties participated in this training. They first evaluated the mass casualty situation, performed the appropriate services at the scene during the initial period, and then provided START triage for mock wounded patients. Throughout the training, 5 examiners evaluated their performance. Regarding the difference in first aid activity based on MCLS course attendance among the ambulance service members, the cooperative management (scored on a scale of 1 to 5) among the members who had taken the MCLS course was significantly better than that among those who had not taken the course (median [interquartile range]: 5 [0.5] vs. 4 [1.75], P<0.05). Attending an MCLS course may help to improve outcomes in the face of an actual mass casualty incident. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;page 1 of 4).

Military Medical Revolution: Prehospital Combat Casualty Care

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

systems Anesthesia Antisepsis/sanitation (Lister, Pasteur , Koch) Nursing care (Nightingale) World War I and World War II Antibiotics Blood...to preserve the life of casualties in critical conditions. TACEVAC includes evacuation by both designat- ed medical (MEDEVAC) mobility assets and...military experience in Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq revitalized the concept of treating hemorrhage with plas- ma to preserve coagulation system

46 CFR 4.05-12 - Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in... § 4.05-12 Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in casualties. (a) For each marine... evidence of alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in the casualty. (b) The marine employer...

Relative device stability of anterior versus axillary needle decompression for tension pneumothorax during casualty movement: Preliminary analysis of a human cadaver model.

Science.gov (United States)

Leatherman, Matthew L; Held, Jenny M; Fluke, Laura M; McEvoy, Christian S; Inaba, Kenji; Grabo, Daniel; Martin, Matthew J; Earley, Angela S; Ricca, Robert L; Polk, Travis M

2017-07-01

Tension pneumothorax (tPTX) remains a significant cause of potentially preventable death in military and civilian settings. The current prehospital standard of care for tPTX is immediate decompression with a 14-gauge 8-cm angiocatheter; however, failure rates may be as high as 17% to 60%. Alternative devices, such as 10-gauge angiocatheter, modified Veress needle, and laparoscopic trocar, have shown to be potentially more effective in animal models; however, little is known about the relative insertional safety or mechanical stability during casualty movement. Seven soft-embalmed cadavers were intubated and mechanically ventilated. Chest wall thickness was measured at the second intercostal space at the midclavicular line (2MCL) and the fifth intercostal space along the anterior axillary line (5AAL). CO2 insufflation created a PTX, and needle decompression was then performed with a randomized device. Insertional depth was measured between hub and skin before and after simulated casualty transport. Thoracoscopy was used to evaluate for intrapleural placement and/or injury during insertion and after movement. Cadaver demographics, device displacement, device dislodgment, and injuries were recorded. Three decompressions were performed at each site (2MCL/5AAL), totaling 12 events per cadaver. Eighty-four decompressions were performed. Average cadaver age was 59 years, and body mass index was 24 kg/m. The CWT varied between cadavers because of subcutaneous emphysema, but the average was 39 mm at the 2MCL and 31 mm at the 5AAL. Following movement, the 2MCL site was more likely to become dislodged than the 5AAL (67% vs. 17%, p = 0.001). Median displacement also differed between 2MCL and 5AAL (23 vs. 2 mm, p = 0.001). No significant differences were noted in dislodgement or displacement between devices. Five minor lung injuries were noted at the 5AAL position. Preliminary results from this human cadaver study suggest the 5AAL position is a more stable and reliable location

Mass Casualty Decontamination in a Chemical or Radiological/ Nuclear Incident: Further Guiding Principles

Science.gov (United States)

Carter, Holly; Amlôt, Richard; Williams, Richard; Rubin, G. James; Drury, John

2016-01-01

This short report presents a response to an article written by Cibulsky et al. (2016). The paper by Cibulsky et al. presents a useful and timely overview of the evidence surrounding the technical and operational aspects of mass casualty decontamination. It identifies three priority targets for future research, the third of which is how casualties' needs can be met in ways that best support compliance with and effectiveness of casualty decontamination. While further investigation into behavioural, communication and privacy issues during mass decontamination is warranted, there is now a substantial body of research in this area which is not considered in detail in the succinct summary provided by Cibulsky et al. (2016). In this short report, we summarise the available evidence around likely public behaviour during mass decontamination, effective communication strategies, and potential issues resulting from a lack of privacy. Our intention is to help further focus the research needs in this area and highlight topics on which more research is needed. PMID:27790381

Israeli hospital preparedness for terrorism-related multiple casualty incidents: can the surge capacity and injury severity distribution be better predicted?

Science.gov (United States)

Kosashvili, Yona; Aharonson-Daniel, L; Daniel, Limor A; Peleg, Kobi; Horowitz, Ariel; Laor, Danny; Blumenfeld, Amir

2009-07-01

The incidence of large-scale urban attacks on civilian populations has significantly increased across the globe over the past decade. These incidents often result in Hospital Multiple Casualty Incidents (HMCI), which are very challenging to hospital teams. 15 years ago the Emergency and Disaster Medicine Division in the Israeli Ministry of Health defined a key of 20 percent of each hospital's bed capacity as its readiness for multiple casualties. Half of those casualties are expected to require immediate medical treatment. This study was performed to evaluate the efficacy of the current readiness guidelines based on the epidemiology of encountered HMCIs. A retrospective study of HMCIs was recorded in the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) home front command and the Israeli National Trauma Registry (ITR) between November 2000 and June 2003. An HMCI is defined by the Emergency and Disaster Medicine Division in the Israeli Ministry of Health as >or=10 casualties or >or=4 suffering from injuries with an ISS>or=16 arriving to a single hospital. The study includes a total of 32 attacks, resulting in 62 HMCIs and 1292 casualties. The mean number of arriving casualties to a single hospital was 20.8+/-13.3 (range 4-56, median 16.5). In 95% of the HMCIs the casualty load was concept may improve the utilisation of national emergency health resources both in the preparation phase and on real time.

49 CFR 1242.41 - Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-26-99 and 50-26-00).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-26... RAILROADS 1 Operating Expenses-Equipment § 1242.41 Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-26-99 and... administration (account XX-26-01). freight cars ...

49 CFR 1242.65 - Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-51-99 and 50-51-00).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-51... RAILROADS 1 Operating Expenses-Transportation § 1242.65 Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-51... separation of administration (account XX-51-01). yard operations ...

Mass-casualty events at schools: a national preparedness survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Graham, James; Shirm, Steve; Liggin, Rebecca; Aitken, Mary E; Dick, Rhonda

2006-01-01

Recent school shootings and terrorist events have demonstrated the need for well-coordinated planning for school-based mass-casualty events. The objective of this study was to document the preparedness of public schools in the United States for the prevention of and the response to a mass-casualty event. A survey was mailed to 3670 school superintendents of public school districts that were chosen at random from a list of school districts from the National Center for Education Statistics of the US Department of Education in January 2004. A second mailing was sent to nonresponders in May 2004. Descriptive statistics were used for survey variables, and the chi2 test was used to compare urban versus rural preparedness. The response rate was 58.2% (2137 usable surveys returned). Most (86.3%) school superintendents reported having a response plan, but fewer (57.2%) have a plan for prevention. Most (95.6%) have an evacuation plan, but almost one third (30%) had never conducted a drill. Almost one quarter (22.1%) have no disaster plan provisions for children with special health care needs, and one quarter reported having no plans for postdisaster counseling. Almost half (42.8%) had never met with local ambulance officials to discuss emergency planning. Urban school districts were better prepared than rural districts on almost all measures in the survey. There are important deficiencies in school emergency/disaster planning. Rural districts are less well prepared than urban districts. Disaster/mass-casualty preparedness of schools should be improved through coordination of school officials and local medical and emergency officials.

Role of radiology in the study and identification of casualty victims

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lichtenstein, J.E.; Madewell, J.E.

1982-01-01

Radiology is assuming an increasingly important role in the investigation of casualty victims. Radiographic screening for foreign bodies, personal effects, dental and surgical artifacts and occult skeletal injury has long been an established technique in forensic medicine. Positive radiographic identification of the victims by comparison with antemortem films and records in a more recent, important development. Large scale radiographic investigations may require improvised facilities posing unaccustomed technical and logistical problems. Radiologic experience gained from aviation accident investigation is found to apply in other casualty situations as well as in individual fatality investigations. Radiologic data may aid determination of the cause of incidents, resulting in improved safety procedures and design, as well as serving humanitarian and forensic functions. (orig.)

Management of the mass casualty from the 2001 Jos crisis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2012-11-04

Nov 4, 2012 ... The complex nature of natural and man‑made disasters poses multidisciplinary ... system [Figure 1] to mobilize staff from outside the hospital. Management of the mass ..... warning before casualties arrived. Transportation to ...

Using sea surface temperatures to improve performance of single dynamical downscaling model in flood simulation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.

2017-12-01

There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.

Prevalence of alcohol among nonfatally injured road accident casualties in two level III trauma centers in northern Ghana.

Science.gov (United States)

Damsere-Derry, James; Palk, Gavan; King, Mark

2018-02-17

Alcohol use is pervasive among motorists on the road in Ghana; however, we do not know the extent to which this behavior is implicated in road accidents in this country. The main objective of this research was to establish the prevalence of alcohol in the blood of nonfatally injured casualties in the emergency departments (EDs) in northern Ghana. Participants were injured road traffic crash victims, namely, pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and drivers seeking treatment at an ED. The study sites were 2 level III trauma centers located in Wa and Bolgatanga. Participants were screened for alcohol followed by breath tests for positive participants using breathalyzers. Two hundred and sixty-two accident victims visited EDs, 58% of whom were in Wa. Among the victims, 41% were hospitalized and 57% experienced slight injuries. The vast majority (76%) of the casualties were motorcyclists, 13% were pedestrians, 8% were cyclists, and 2% were drivers. Casualties who had detectable alcohol in their blood were predominantly vulnerable road users. In all, 34% of participants had detectable blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) and the mean BAC for all casualties who tested positive and could give definitive BACs was 0.2265 (226 mg/dl). The prevalence of alcohol use was 53% among cyclists, 34% among motorcyclists, 21% among pedestrians, and 17% among drivers. Male casualties were more likely to test positive for alcohol than females. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol was significantly higher among injured casualties in Bolgatanga compared to Wa. There was a high prevalence of alcohol use among nonfatally injured casualties in northern Ghana and injury severity increased with BAC. AUDIT screening in the hospital, alcohol consumption guideline, road safety education with an emphasis on minimizing or eliminating alcohol consumption, and enhanced enforcement of the BAC limit among motorists are recommended.

49 CFR 1242.72 - Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-52-99 and 50-52-00).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-52... RAILROADS 1 Operating Expenses-Transportation § 1242.72 Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-52... separation of administration (account XX-52-01). train and yard operations common ...

49 CFR 1242.82 - Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-55-99 and 50-55-00).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-55... RAILROADS 1 Operating Expenses-Transportation § 1242.82 Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-55... separation of administration (account XX-55-01). Operating Expenses general and administration ...

49 CFR 1242.54 - Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-27-99 and 50-27-00).

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-27... RAILROADS 1 Operating Expenses-Equipment § 1242.54 Other and casualties and insurance (accounts XX-27-99 and... administration (account XX-27-01). Operating Expenses—Transportation train operations ...

Casualty data analysis of the world merchant fleet for reported fire and explosion incidents resulting in marine pollution

Science.gov (United States)

1995-02-01

World wide merchant vessel fire and explosion data were analyzed to determine the contribution of these casualties to the marine pollution problem. The source of information is the Lloyd's Casualty Information System Data Base. The major findings of ...

How will military/civilian coordination work for reception of mass casualties from overseas?

Science.gov (United States)

Mackenzie, Colin; Donohue, John; Wasylina, Philip; Cullum, Woodrow; Hu, Peter; Lam, David M

2009-01-01

In Maryland, there have been no military/civilian training exercises of the Medical Mutual Aid Agreement for >20 years. The aims of this paper are to describe the National Disaster Medical System (NDMS), to coordinate military and civilian medical mutual aid in response to arrival of overseas mass casualties, and to evaluate the mass-casualty reception and bed "surge" capacity of Maryland NDMS Hospitals. Three tabletop exercises and a functional exercise were performed using a simulated, overseas, military mass-casualty event. The first tabletop exercise was with military and civilian NMDS partners. The second tested the revised NDMS activation plan. The third exercised the Authorities of State Emergency Medical System and Walter Reed Army Medical Center Directors of Emergency Medicine over Maryland NDMS hospitals, and their Medical Mutual Aid Agreement. The functional exercise used Homeland Security Exercise Evaluation Program tools to evaluate reception, triage, staging, and transportation of 160 notional patients (including 20 live, moulaged "patients") and one canine. The first tabletop exercise identified deficiencies in operational protocols for military/civilian mass-casualty reception, triage, treatment, and problems with sharing a Unified Command. The second found improvements in the revised NDMS activation plan. The third informed expectations for NDMS hospitals. In the functional exercise, all notional patients were received, triaged, dispatched, and accounted in military and five civilian hospitals within two hours. The canine revealed deficiencies in companion/military animal reception, holding, treatment, and evacuation. Three working groups were suggested: (1) to ensure 100% compliance with triage tags, patient accountability, and return of equipment used in mass casualty events and exercises; (2) to investigate making information technology and imaging networks available for Emergency Operation Centers and Incident Command; and (3) to establish NDMS

Rhabdomyolysis among critically ill combat casualties: Associations with acute kidney injury and mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Ian J; Faulk, Tarra I; Sosnov, Jonathan A; Clemens, Michael S; Elterman, Joel; Ross, James D; Howard, Jeffrey T; Fang, Raymond; Zonies, David H; Chung, Kevin K

2016-03-01

Rhabdomyolysis has been associated with poor outcomes in patients with traumatic injury, especially in the setting of acute kidney injury (AKI). However, rhabdomyolysis has not been systematically examined in a large cohort of combat casualties injured in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We conducted a retrospective study of casualties injured during combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan who were initially admitted to the intensive care unit from February 1, 2002, to February 1, 2011. Information on age, sex, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score, Injury Severity Score (ISS), mechanism of injury, shock index, creatine kinase, and serum creatinine were collected. These variables were examined via multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses to determine factors independently associated with rhabdomyolysis, AKI, and death. Of 6,011 admissions identified, a total of 2,109 patients met inclusion criteria and were included for analysis. Rhabdomyolysis, defined as creatine kinase greater than 5,000 U/L, was present in 656 subjects (31.1%). Risk factors for rhabdomyolysis identified on multivariable analysis included injuries to the abdomen and extremities, increased ISS, male sex, explosive mechanism of injury, and shock index greater than 0.9. After adjustment, patients with rhabdomyolysis had a greater than twofold increase in the odds of AKI. In the analysis for mortality, rhabdomyolysis was significantly associated with death until AKI was added, at which point it lost statistical significance. We found that rhabdomyolysis is associated with the development of AKI in combat casualties. While rhabdomyolysis was strongly associated with mortality on the univariate model and in conjunction with both ISS and age, it was not associated with mortality after the inclusion of AKI. This suggests that the effect of rhabdomyolysis on mortality may be mediated by AKI. Prognostic and epidemiologic study, level III.

The Impact of 10 Years of War on Combat Casualty Care Research: A Citation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Crommett JW, et al. Evaluation of trauma team performance using an advanced human patient simulator for resuscitation training. J Trauma. 2002;52:1078Y1085...transection model to compare nine hemostatic dressings. They concluded that the use of a zeolite hemostatic agent controlled hemorrhage and significantly...review of the scientific literature published during this period can be used to evaluate the research on combat casualty care conducted during the recent

Intraosseous vascular access in disasters and mass casualty events: A review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgert, James M

2016-01-01

The intraosseous (IO) route of vascular access has been increasingly used to administer resuscitative fluids and drugs to patients in whom reliable intravenous (IV) access could not be rapidly or easily obtained. It is unknown that to what extent the IO route has been used to gain vascular access during disasters and mass casualty events. The purpose of this review was to examine the existing literature to answer the research question, "What is the utility of the IO route compared to other routes for establishing vascular access in patients resulting from disasters and mass casualty events?" Keyword-based online database search of PubMed, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. University-based academic research cell. Included evidence were randomized and nonrandomized trials, systematic reviews with and without meta-analysis, case series, and case reports. Excluded evidence included narrative reviews and expert opinion. Not applicable. Of 297 evidence sources located, 22 met inclusion criteria. Located evidence was organized into four categories including chemical agent poisoning, IO placement, while wearing chemical protective clothing (PPE), military trauma, and infectious disease outbreak. Evidence indicates that the IO route of infusion is pharmacokinetically equal to the IV route and superior to the intramuscular (IM) and endotracheal routes for the administration of antidotal drugs in animal models of chemical agent poisoning while wearing full chemical PPE. The IO route is superior to the IM route for antidote administration during hypovolemic shock. Civilian casualties of explosive attacks and mass shootings would likely benefit from expanded use of the IO route and military resuscitation strategies. The IO route is useful for fluid resuscitation in the management of diarrheal and hemorrhagic infectious disease outbreaks.

Management of the mass casualty from the 2001 Jos crisis

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2012-11-04

Nov 4, 2012 ... Management of Jos crisis mass casualty. 437. Nigerian Journal of ... operating and admission registers and their case notes retrieved from the .... of young males in our study was because these were the rioters in the first ...

The Effect of a Golden Hour Policy on the Morbidity and Mortality of Combat Casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

Kotwal, Russ S; Howard, Jeffrey T; Orman, Jean A; Tarpey, Bruce W; Bailey, Jeffrey A; Champion, Howard R; Mabry, Robert L; Holcomb, John B; Gross, Kirby R

2016-01-01

The term golden hour was coined to encourage urgency of trauma care. In 2009, Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates mandated prehospital helicopter transport of critically injured combat casualties in 60 minutes or less. To compare morbidity and mortality outcomes for casualties before vs after the mandate and for those who underwent prehospital helicopter transport in 60 minutes or less vs more than 60 minutes. A retrospective descriptive analysis of battlefield data examined 21,089 US military casualties that occurred during the Afghanistan conflict from September 11, 2001, to March 31, 2014. Analysis was conducted from September 1, 2014, to January 21, 2015. Data for all casualties were analyzed according to whether they occurred before or after the mandate. Detailed data for those who underwent prehospital helicopter transport were analyzed according to whether they occurred before or after the mandate and whether they occurred in 60 minutes or less vs more than 60 minutes. Casualties with minor wounds were excluded. Mortality and morbidity outcomes and treatment capability-related variables were compared. For the total casualty population, the percentage killed in action (16.0% [386 of 2411] vs 9.9% [964 of 9755]; P mean injury severity score, 17.3; mortality, 10.1% [457 of 4542]) with detailed data, there was a decrease in median transport time after the mandate (90 min vs 43 min; P < .001) and an increase in missions achieving prehospital helicopter transport in 60 minutes or less (24.8% [181 of 731] vs 75.2% [2867 of 3811]; P < .001). When adjusted for injury severity score and time period, the percentage killed in action was lower for those critically injured who received a blood transfusion (6.8% [40 of 589] vs 51.0% [249 of 488]; P < .001) and were transported in 60 minutes or less (25.7% [205 of 799] vs 30.2% [84 of 278]; P < .01), while the percentage died of wounds was lower among those critically injured initially treated by combat

Parameters for Estimation of Casualties from Ammonia (NH3), Tabun (GA), Soman (GD),Cyclosarin (GF) and Lewisite (L)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-01

untreated casualty estimate, AMedP-7.5 uses the Injury Profile to deter- mine the final outcome for each Injury Profile cohort. For a treated casualty...materially from that of an HD burn. Large, single coalescent blisters with sharply defined margins are filled with cloudy and opales - cent fluid, and the

Analysis of combat casualties admitted to the emergency department during the negotiation of the comprehensive Colombian process of peace.

Science.gov (United States)

Ordoñez, Carlos A; Manzano Nunez, Ramiro; Parra, Michael W; Herrera, Juan Pablo; Naranjo, Maria Paula; Escobar, Sara Sofia; Badiel, Marisol; Morales, Monica; Cevallos, Cecibel; Bayona, Juan G; Sanchez, Alvaro Ignacio; Puyana, Juan Carlos; García, Alberto F

2017-12-30

Our objective was to describe the variations in casualties admitted to the emergency department during the period of the negotiation of the comprehensive peace agreement in Colombia between 2011 and 2016. A retrospective study of all hostile military casualties managed at a regional Level I trauma center from January 2011 to December 2016. Patients were subsequently divided into two groups: those seen before the declaration of the process of peace truce (November 2012) and those after (negotiation period). Variables were compared with respect to periods. A total of 448 hostile casualties were registered. There was a gradual decline in the number of admissions to the emergency department during the negotiation period. The number of soldiers suffering blast and rifle injuries also decreased over this period. In 2012 there were nearly 150 hostile casualties' admissions to the ER. This number decreased to 84, 63, 32 and 6 in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. Both, the proportion of patients with an ISS ≥9 and admitted to the intensive care unit were significantly higher in the period before peace negotiation. From August to December/2016 no admissions of war casualties were registered. We describe a series of soldiers wounded in combat that were admitted to the emergency department before and during the negotiation of the Colombian process of peace. Overall, we found a trend toward a decrease in the number of casualties admitted to the emergency department possibly in part, as a result of the period of peace negotiation.

Casualties Produced by Impact and Related Topics of People Survivability in a Direct Effects Environment

Science.gov (United States)

1974-08-01

Effects Environment". Lt was per- formed for the Defer se Civil Preparedness Agency under Contract DAHiC20-73-C-0196. rhe study was initiated on Hay...rough examin-ation of field daca , i.e., detailed survey data of existing buildings. The rvJson for this is that in order to be generally applicabli...debris under the action of blast winds. These can inteiracL with people located in their paths producing impact casualtie.s. People locaced in basements

Relation between both oxidative and metabolic-osmotic cell damages and initial injury severity in bombing casualties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vučeljić Marina

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. We have recently reported the development of oxidative cell damages in bombing casualties within a very early period after the initial injury. The aim of this study, was to investigate malondialdehyde (MDA, as an indicator of lipid peroxidation, and osmolal gap (OG, as a good indicator of metabolic cell damages and to assess their relationship with the initial severity of the injury in bombing casualties. Methods. The study included the males (n = 52, injured during the bombing with the Injury Severity Score (ISS ranging from 3 to 66. The whole group of casualties was devided into a group of less severely (ISS < 25, n = 24 and a group of severely (ISS ≥ 26, n = 28 injured males. The uninjured volunteers (n = 10 were the controls. Osmolality, MDA, sodium, glucose, urea, creatinine, total bilirubin and total protein levels were measured in the venous blood, sampled daily, within a ten-day period. Results. In both groups of casualties, MDA and OG levels increased, total protein levels decreased, while other parameters were within the control limits. MDA alterations correlated with ISS (r = 0.414, p < 0.01, while a statistically significant correlation between OG and ISS was not obtained. Interestingly, in spite of some differences in MDA and OG trends, at the end of the examined period they were at the similar level in both groups. Conclusion. The initial oxidative damages of the cellular membrane with intracellular metabolic disorders contributed to the gradual development of metabolic-osmotic damages of cells, which, consequently caused the OG increase. In the bombing casualties, oxidative cell damages were dependent on the initial injury severity, while metabolic-osmotic cell damages were not.

Prehospital Interventions During Mass-Casualty Events in Afghanistan: A Case Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Schauer, Steven G; April, Michael D; Simon, Erica; Maddry, Joseph K; Carter, Robert; Delorenzo, Robert A

2017-08-01

Mass-casualty (MASCAL) events are known to occur in the combat setting. There are very limited data at this time from the Joint Theater (Iraq and Afghanistan) wars specific to MASCAL events. The purpose of this report was to provide preliminary data for the development of prehospital planning and guidelines. Cases were identified using the Department of Defense (DoD; Virginia USA) Trauma Registry (DoDTR) and the Prehospital Trauma Registry (PHTR). These cases were identified as part of a research study evaluating Tactical Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) guidelines. Cases that were designated as or associated with denoted MASCAL events were included. Data Fifty subjects were identified during the course of this project. Explosives were the most common cause of injuries. There was a wide range of vital signs. Tourniquet placement and pressure dressings were the most common interventions, followed by analgesia administration. Oral transmucosal fentanyl citrate (OTFC) was the most common parenteral analgesic drug administered. Most were evacuated as "routine." Follow-up data were available for 36 of the subjects and 97% were discharged alive. The most common prehospital interventions were tourniquet and pressure dressing hemorrhage control, along with pain medication administration. Larger data sets are needed to guide development of MASCAL in-theater clinical practice guidelines. Schauer SG , April MD , Simon E , Maddry JK , Carter R III , Delorenzo RA . Prehospital interventions during mass-casualty events in Afghanistan: a case analysis. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(4):465-468.

[HIGH VELOCITY PENETRATING HEAD AND NECK INJURIES OF SYRIAN CIVIL WAR CASUALTIES TREATED IN THE GALILEE MEDICAL CENTER].

Science.gov (United States)

Ronen, Ohad; Assadi, Nidal; Sela, Eyal

2017-05-01

For two years the State of Israel has been treating casualties from the Syrian civil war. The Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya is the main hospital for this humanitarian mission. Objectives: To evaluate the demographic and clinical characteristics of the casualties that were treated in our department. Information from medical records of all Syrian casualties evacuated to the Galilee Medical Center were evaluated. Between March 2013 and December 2014, 450 casualties were evacuated to the Galilee Medical Center. Of those, 45 were treated in the Department of Otolaryngology - Head and Neck Surgery. Of the 45 cases, 43 were male (95.5%) and the mean age was 30.4 years (range 1-79 years). There was a significant difference in terms of gender (p Syria, and 12 died. Of all Syrian injured treated in the ENT department, the vast majority were young men. The main cause of injury was gunshot wounds. It is likely that the lack of protective gear that exist in western armies is a factor in the complex injuries treated at the Galilee Medical Center.

A better START for low-acuity victims: data-driven refinement of mass casualty triage.

Science.gov (United States)

Cross, Keith P; Petry, Michael J; Cicero, Mark X

2015-01-01

Methods currently used to triage patients from mass casualty events have a sparse evidence basis. The objective of this project was to assess gaps of the widely used Simple Triage and Rapid Transport (START) algorithm using a large database when it is used to triage low-acuity patients. Subsequently, we developed and tested evidenced-based improvements to START. Using the National Trauma Database (NTDB), a large set of trauma victims were assigned START triage levels, which were then compared to recorded patient mortality outcomes using area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC). Subjects assigned to the "Minor/Green" level who nevertheless died prior to hospital discharge were considered mistriaged. Recursive partitioning identified factors associated with of these mistriaged patients. These factors were then used to develop candidate START models of improved triage, whose overall performance was then re-evaluated using data from the NTDB. This process of evaluating performance, identifying errors, and further adjusting candidate models was repeated iteratively. The study included 322,162 subjects assigned to "Minor/Green" of which 2,046 died before hospital discharge. Age was the primary predictor of under-triage by START. Candidate models which re-assigned patients from the "Minor/Green" triage level to the "Delayed/Yellow" triage level based on age (either for patients >60 or >75), reduced mortality in the "Minor/Green" group from 0.6% to 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. These candidate START models also showed net improvement in the AUC for predicting mortality overall and in select subgroups. In this research model using trauma registry data, most START under-triage errors occurred in elderly patients. Overall START accuracy was improved by placing elderly but otherwise minimally injured-mass casualty victims into a higher risk triage level. Alternatively, such patients would be candidates for closer monitoring at the scene or expedited transport ahead of other

Scalable patients tracking framework for mass casualty incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xunyi; Ganz, Aura

2011-01-01

We introduce a system that tracks patients in a Mass Casualty Incident (MCI) using active RFID triage tags and mobile anchor points (DM-tracks) carried by the paramedics. The system does not involve any fixed deployment of the localization devices while maintaining a low cost triage tag. The localization accuracy is comparable to GPS systems without incurring the cost of providing a GPS based device to every patient in the disaster scene.

26 CFR 20.2054-1 - Deduction for losses from casualties or theft.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... (CONTINUED) ESTATE AND GIFT TAXES ESTATE TAX; ESTATES OF DECEDENTS DYING AFTER AUGUST 16, 1954 Taxable Estate... during the settlement of the estate arising from fires, storms, shipwrecks, or other casualties, or from...

Patient distribution in a mass casualty event of an airplane crash

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Postma, Ingri L. E.; Weel, Hanneke; Heetveld, Martin J.; van der Zande, Ineke; Bijlsma, Taco S.; Bloemers, Frank W.; Goslings, J. Carel

2013-01-01

Difficulties have been reported in the patient distribution during Mass Casualty Incidents. In this study we analysed the regional patient distribution protocol (PDP) and the actual patient distribution after the 2009 Turkish Airlines crash near Amsterdam. Analysis of the patient distribution of 126

Evaluation of a CT triage protocol for mass casualty incidents: results from two large-scale exercises

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koerner, Markus; Kroetz, Michael M.; Wirth, Stefan; Boehm, Holger F.; Reiser, Maximilian; Linsenmaier, Ulrich [University Hospital Munich, Department of Clinical Radiology, Munich (Germany); Huber-Wagner, Stefan; Kanz, Karl-Georg [University Hospital Munich, Department of Surgery, Munich (Germany)

2009-08-15

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility, stability, and reproducibility of a dedicated CT protocol for the triage of patients in two separate large-scale exercises that simulated a mass casualty incident (MCI). In both exercises, a bomb explosion at the local soccer stadium that had caused about 100 casualties was simulated. Seven casualties who were rated ''critical'' by on-site field triage were admitted to the emergency department and underwent whole-body CT. The CT workflow was simulated with phantoms. The history of the casualties was matched to existing CT examinations that were used for evaluation of image reading under MCI conditions. The times needed for transfer and preparation of patients, examination, image reconstruction, total time in the CT examination room, image transfer to PACS, and image reading were recorded, and mean capacities were calculated and compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. We found no significant time differences in transfer and preparation of patients, duration of CT data acquisition, image reconstruction, total time in the CT room, and reading of the images. The calculated capacities per hour were 9.4 vs. 9.8 for examinations completed, and 8.2 vs. 7.2 for reports completed. In conclusion, CT triage is feasible and produced constant results with this dedicated and fast protocol. (orig.)

Evaluation of a CT triage protocol for mass casualty incidents: results from two large-scale exercises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koerner, Markus; Kroetz, Michael M.; Wirth, Stefan; Boehm, Holger F.; Reiser, Maximilian; Linsenmaier, Ulrich; Huber-Wagner, Stefan; Kanz, Karl-Georg

2009-01-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the feasibility, stability, and reproducibility of a dedicated CT protocol for the triage of patients in two separate large-scale exercises that simulated a mass casualty incident (MCI). In both exercises, a bomb explosion at the local soccer stadium that had caused about 100 casualties was simulated. Seven casualties who were rated ''critical'' by on-site field triage were admitted to the emergency department and underwent whole-body CT. The CT workflow was simulated with phantoms. The history of the casualties was matched to existing CT examinations that were used for evaluation of image reading under MCI conditions. The times needed for transfer and preparation of patients, examination, image reconstruction, total time in the CT examination room, image transfer to PACS, and image reading were recorded, and mean capacities were calculated and compared using the Mann-Whitney U test. We found no significant time differences in transfer and preparation of patients, duration of CT data acquisition, image reconstruction, total time in the CT room, and reading of the images. The calculated capacities per hour were 9.4 vs. 9.8 for examinations completed, and 8.2 vs. 7.2 for reports completed. In conclusion, CT triage is feasible and produced constant results with this dedicated and fast protocol. (orig.)

Challenges facing the veterinary profession in Ireland: 3. emergency and casualty slaughter certification.

Science.gov (United States)

Magalhães-Sant'Ana, Manuel; More, Simon J; Morton, David B; Hanlon, Alison J

2017-01-01

Veterinarians are faced with significant conflicts of interest when issuing certificates for the transport and slaughter of acutely injured and casualty livestock. In a recent Policy Delphi study, emergency and casualty slaughter certification was a key concern identified by veterinary professionals in Ireland. In this case study (the third in a series of three resulting from a research workshop exploring challenges facing the veterinary profession in Ireland; the other two case studies investigate clinical veterinary services and the on-farm use of veterinary antimicrobials), we aim to provide a value-based reflection on the constraints and opportunities for best practice in emergency and casualty slaughter certification in Ireland. Using a qualitative focus group approach, this study gathered evidence from relevant stakeholders, namely a representative from the regulatory body, local authority veterinarians with research experience in emergency slaughter, an animal welfare research scientist, official veterinarians from the competent authority, a private veterinary practitioner, and a member of a farming organisation. Results revealed a conflict between the responsibility of private veterinary practitioners (PVPs) to safeguard the welfare of acutely injured bovines on-farm and the client's commercial concerns. As a consequence, some PVPs may feel under pressure to certify, for example, an acutely injured animal for casualty slaughter instead of recommending either on-farm emergency slaughter or disposal by the knackery service. Among Official Veterinarians, there are concerns about the pressure within processing plants to accept acutely injured livestock as casualty animals. Confusion pertaining to legislation and definition of fitness to travel also contribute to these dilemmas. Conflicts of interest arise due to the gap between governance and provision to facilitate on-farm emergency slaughter of livestock. Increased availability and acceptance of on

Daily variation in natural disaster casualties: information flows, safety, and opportunity costs in tornado versus hurricane strikes.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahran, Sammy; Tavani, Daniele; Weiler, Stephan

2013-07-01

Casualties from natural disasters may depend on the day of the week they strike. With data from the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS), daily variation in hurricane and tornado casualties from 5,043 tornado and 2,455 hurricane time/place events is analyzed. Hurricane forecasts provide at-risk populations with considerable lead time. Such lead time allows strategic behavior in choosing protective measures under hurricane threat; opportunity costs in terms of lost income are higher during weekdays than during weekends. On the other hand, the lead time provided by tornadoes is near zero; hence tornados generate no opportunity costs. Tornado casualties are related to risk information flows, which are higher during workdays than during leisure periods, and are related to sheltering-in-place opportunities, which are better in permanent buildings like businesses and schools. Consistent with theoretical expectations, random effects negative binomial regression results indicate that tornado events occurring on the workdays of Monday through Thursday are significantly less lethal than tornados that occur on weekends. In direct contrast, and also consistent with theory, the expected count of hurricane casualties increases significantly with weekday occurrences. The policy implications of observed daily variation in tornado and hurricane events are considered. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

The utility of focused assessment with sonography for trauma as a triage tool in multiple-casualty incidents during the second Lebanon war.

Science.gov (United States)

Beck-Razi, Nira; Fischer, Doron; Michaelson, Moshe; Engel, Ahuva; Gaitini, Diana

2007-09-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the role of focused assessment with sonography for trauma (FAST) as a triage tool in multiple-casualty incidents (MCIs) for a single international conflict. The charts of 849 casualties that arrived at our level 1 trauma referral center were reviewed. Casualties were initially triaged according to the Injury Severity Score at the emergency department gate. Two-hundred eighty-one physically injured patients, 215 soldiers (76.5%) and 66 civilians (23.5%), were admitted. Focused assessment with sonography for trauma was performed in 102 casualties suspected to have an abdominal injury. Sixty-eight underwent computed tomography (CT); 12 underwent laparotomy; and 28 were kept under clinical observation alone. We compared FAST results against CT, laparotomy, and clinical observation records. Focused assessment with sonography for trauma results were positive in 17 casualties and negative in 85. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of FAST were 75%, 97.6%, 88.2%, 94.1%, and 93.1%, respectively. A strong correlation between FAST and CT results, laparotomy, and clinical observation was obtained (P war conflict-related MCI, FAST enabled immediate triage of casualties to laparotomy, CT, or clinical observation. Because of its moderate sensitivity, a negative FAST result with strong clinical suspicion demands further evaluation, especially in an MCI.

Emergency response to mass casualty incidents in Lebanon.

Science.gov (United States)

El Sayed, Mazen J

2013-08-01

The emergency response to mass casualty incidents in Lebanon lacks uniformity. Three recent large-scale incidents have challenged the existing emergency response process and have raised the need to improve and develop incident management for better resilience in times of crisis. We describe some simple emergency management principles that are currently applied in the United States. These principles can be easily adopted by Lebanon and other developing countries to standardize and improve their emergency response systems using existing infrastructure.

Job Stress and Coping in Army Casualty Operations Workers

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-14

informing survivors, and 2) a masculine culture that denies socioemotional aspects of policework (Hall, 1982; Hendricks, 1984; Eth, 1987). Casualty...assistance environment, requiring a degree of 42 socioemotional investment, social supports of some nature are useful. Overall, the work atmosphere at COC is...in child- protective service workers. _ fly Service Review, 31-44. 52 Hendricks, J.E. (1984). Death notification: The theory and practice of informing

Challenges to Improving Combat Casualty Survivability on the Battlefield

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Rescue Medic in Mogadishu , Somalia, and Special Forces battalion surgeon during Operation Enduring Freedom. He is currently the Director of the Military...the CoTCCC, an organization born outside the traditional military medical establishment, exposes a void in ownership and expertise in battle - field...serve as bat- talion surgeons responsible for the resuscitation of battle casualties in the battalion aid station. This is reminiscent of how

Retrospection. Uranium mining Wismut und the legal casualty insurance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Breuer, Joachim

2015-01-01

Although the Wismut uranium mining company in the former DDR had 600.000 employees, the company was not mentioned in the contract on the German reunification. The expenses for the health consequences imposed manifold challenges to the legal casualty insurance. The question of responsibility, the conservation, digitalization and evaluation of data concerning the personnel and health information, partially handwritten is a tremendous amount of work.

[Ethical Debates Related to the Allocation of Medical Resources During the Response to the Mass Casualty Incident at Formosa Fun Coast Water Park].

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Jing-Shia; Chen, Chia-Jung; Huang, Mei-Chih

2017-02-01

Disasters are unpredictable and often result in mass casualties. Limited medical resources often affect the response to mass casualty incidents, undermining the ability of responders to adequately protect all of the casualties. Thus, the injuries of casualties are classified in hopes of fully utilizing medical resources efficiently in order to save the maximum possible number of people. However, as opinions on casualty prioritization are subjective, disagreements and disputes often arise regarding allocating medical resources. The present article focused on the 2015 explosion at Formosa Fun Coast, a recreational water park in Bali, New Taipei City, Taiwan as a way to explore the dilemma over the triage and resource allocation for casualties with burns over 90% and 50-60% of their bodies. The principles of utilitarianism and deontology in Western medicine were used to discuss the reasons and rationale behind the allocation of medical resources during this incident. Confucianism, a philosophical mindset that significantly influences Taiwanese society today, was then discussed to describe the "miracles" that happened during the incident, including the acquisition of assistance from the public and medical professionals. External supplies and professional help (social resources) were provided voluntarily after this incident, which had a profound impact on both the immediate response and the longer-term recovery efforts.

Spatial-temporal patterns in Mediterranean carnivore road casualties: Consequences for mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Grilo, C.; Bissonette, J.A.; Santos-Reis, M.

2009-01-01

Many carnivores have been seriously impacted by the expansion of transportation systems and networks; however we know little about carnivore response to the extent and magnitude of road mortality, or which age classes may be disproportionately impacted. Recent research has demonstrated that wildlife-vehicle-collisions (WVC) involving carnivores are modulated by temporal and spatial factors. Thus, we investigated road mortality on a guild of small and medium-sized carnivores in southern Portugal using road-kill data obtained from a systematic 36 months monitoring period along highways (260 km) and national roads (314 km) by addressing the following questions: (a) which species and age class are most vulnerable to WVC? (b) are there temporal and/or spatial patterns in road-kill? and (c) which life-history and/or spatial factors influence the likelihood of collisions? We recorded a total of 806 carnivore casualties, which represented an average of 47 ind./100 km/year. Red fox and stone marten had the highest mortality rates. Our findings highlight three key messages: (1) the majority of road-killed individuals were adults of common species; (2) all carnivores, except genets, were more vulnerable during specific life-history phenological periods: higher casualties were observed when red fox and stone marten were provisioning young, Eurasian badger casualties occurred more frequently during dispersal, and higher Egyptian mongoose mortality occurred during the breeding period; and (3) modeling demonstrated that favorable habitat, curves in the road, and low human disturbance were major contributors to the deadliest road segments. Red fox carcasses were more likely to be found on road sections with passages distant from urban areas. Conversely, stone marten mortalities were found more often on national roads with high of cork oak woodland cover; Egyptian mongoose and genet road-kills were found more often on road segments close to curves. Based on our results, two key

Radiographic interpretation of the appendicular skeleton: A comparison between casualty officers, nurse practitioners and radiographers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coleman, Liz; Piper, Keith

2009-01-01

Aim: To assess how accurately and confidently casualty officers, nurse practitioners and radiographers, practicing within the emergency department (ED), recognize and describe radiographic trauma within an image test bank of 20 appendicular radiographs. Method: The participants consisted of 7 casualty officers, 13 nurse practitioners and 18 radiographers. All 20 radiographic examinations selected for the image test bank had been acquired following trauma and included some subtle, yet clinically significant abnormalities. The test bank score (maximum 40 marks), sensitivity and specificity percentages were calculated against an agreed radiological diagnosis (reference standard). Alternative Free-response Receiver Operating Characteristic (AFROC) analysis was used to assess the overall performance of the diagnostic accuracy of these professional groups. The variation in performance between each group was measured using the analysis of variance (ANOVA) test, to identify any statistical significant differences in the performance in interpretation between these groups. The relationship between the participants' perceived image interpretation accuracy during clinical practice and the actual accuracy of their image test bank score was examined using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient (r). Results: The results revealed that the radiographers gained the highest mean test bank score (28.5/40; 71%). This score was statistically higher than the mean test bank scores attained by the participating nurse practitioners (21/40; 53%) and casualty officers (21.5/40; 54%), with p < 0.01 and p = 0.02, respectively. When compared with each other, the scores from these latter groups showed no significant difference (p = 0.91). The mean 'area under the curve' (AUC) value achieved by the radiographers was also significantly higher (p < 0.01) in comparison to the AUC values demonstrated by the nurse practitioners and casualty officers, whose results, when compared, showed no significant

Conflict Without Casualties: Non-Lethal Weapons in Irregular Warfare

Science.gov (United States)

2007-09-01

the body,” and the Geneva Protocol of 1925, bans the use of chemical and biological weapons .11 On 8 April 1975, President Ford issued Executive...E Funding – PE 63851M) (accessed 15 December 2006). The American Journal of Bioethics . “Medical Ethics and Non-Lethal Weapons .” Bioethics.net...CASUALTIES: NON-LETHAL WEAPONS IN IRREGULAR WARFARE by Richard L. Scott September 2007 Thesis Advisor: Robert McNab Second Reader

Management of the mass casualty from the 2001 Jos crisis | Ozoilo ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: We report our experience in the hospital management of mass casualty following the Jos civil crisis of 2001. Materials and Methods: Aretrospective analysis of the records of patients managed in the Jos civil crisis of September 2001, in Plateau State, Nigeria. Information extracted included demographic data of ...

Mass casualty drill in a local hospital | Ardill | Nigerian Journal of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The stated goals of the mass casualty drill were as follows: evaluate the performance of the hospital staff at every cadre, the communication systems, the adequacy of hospital supplies and equipment and provide immediate feedback to the staff for their educational benefit and improved future performance. The Consultant ...

Experience in the management of the mass casualty from the January 2010 Jos Crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozoilo, K N; Amupitan, I; Peter, S D; Ojo, E O; Ismaila, B O; Ode, M; Adoga, A A; Adoga, A S

2016-01-01

On the 17 of January 2010, a sectarian crisis broke out in Jos the capital of Plateau state, Nigeria. It created a mass casualty situation in the Jos University Teaching Hospital. We present the result of the hospital management of that mass casualty incident. To share our experience in the management of the mass casualty situation arising from the sectarian crisis of Jos in January 2010. We retrospectively reviewed the hospital records of patients who were treated in our hospital with injuries sustained in the Jos crisis of January 2010. A total of 168 patients presented over a four day period. There were 108 males (64.3%) and 60 females (35.7%). The mean age was 26 ± 16 years. Injury was caused by gunshots in 68 patients (40.5%), machete in 56 (33.3%), falls in 22 (13.1%) and burning in 21 (13.1%). The body parts injured were the upper limbs in 61(36.3%) patients, lower limbs 44 (26.2%) and scalp 43 (25.6%). Majority, 125 (74.4%) did not require formal operative care. Fourteen (8.3%) patients had complications out of which 10 (6.0%) were related to infections. There were 5 (3.1%) hospital mortalities and the mean duration of hospital stay was 4.2 days. The hospital operations returned to routine 24 hours after the last patient was brought in. As a result of changes made to our protocol, management proceeded smoothly and there was no stoppage of the hospital response at any point. This civil crisis involved mostly young males. Injuries were mainly lacerations from machete and gunshot injuries. Majority of the victims did not require formal surgical operations beyond initial care. Maintaining continuity in the positions of the Incident commander and the mass casualty commander ensure a smooth disaster response with fewer challenges.

Equivalent Dynamic Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Molenaar, Peter C M

2017-01-01

Equivalences of two classes of dynamic models for weakly stationary multivariate time series are discussed: dynamic factor models and autoregressive models. It is shown that exploratory dynamic factor models can be rotated, yielding an infinite set of equivalent solutions for any observed series. It also is shown that dynamic factor models with lagged factor loadings are not equivalent to the currently popular state-space models, and that restriction of attention to the latter type of models may yield invalid results. The known equivalent vector autoregressive model types, standard and structural, are given a new interpretation in which they are conceived of as the extremes of an innovating type of hybrid vector autoregressive models. It is shown that consideration of hybrid models solves many problems, in particular with Granger causality testing.

Death on the battlefield (2001-2011): implications for the future of combat casualty care.

Science.gov (United States)

Eastridge, Brian J; Mabry, Robert L; Seguin, Peter; Cantrell, Joyce; Tops, Terrill; Uribe, Paul; Mallett, Olga; Zubko, Tamara; Oetjen-Gerdes, Lynne; Rasmussen, Todd E; Butler, Frank K; Kotwal, Russ S; Kotwal, Russell S; Holcomb, John B; Wade, Charles; Champion, Howard; Lawnick, Mimi; Moores, Leon; Blackbourne, Lorne H

2012-12-01

Critical evaluation of all aspects of combat casualty care, including mortality, with a special focus on the incidence and causes of potentially preventable deaths among US combat fatalities, is central to identifying gaps in knowledge, training, equipment, and execution of battlefield trauma care. The impetus to produce this analysis was to develop a comprehensive perspective of battlefield death, concentrating on deaths that occurred in the pre-medical treatment facility (pre-MTF) environment. The Armed Forces Medical Examiner Service Mortality Surveillance Division was used to identify Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom combat casualties from October 2001 to June 2011 who died from injury in the deployed environment. The autopsy records, perimortem records, photographs on file, and Mortality Trauma Registry of the Armed Forces Medical Examiner Service were used to compile mechanism of injury, cause of injury, medical intervention performed, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score, and Injury Severity Score (ISS) on all lethal injuries. All data were used by the expert panel for the conduct of the potential for injury survivability assessment of this study. For the study interval between October 2001 and June 2011, 4,596 battlefield fatalities were reviewed and analyzed. The stratification of mortality demonstrated that 87.3% of all injury mortality occurred in the pre-MTF environment. Of the pre-MTF deaths, 75.7% (n = 3,040) were classified as nonsurvivable, and 24.3% (n = 976) were deemed potentially survivable (PS). The injury/physiologic focus of PS acute mortality was largely associated with hemorrhage (90.9%). The site of lethal hemorrhage was truncal (67.3%), followed by junctional (19.2%) and peripheral-extremity (13.5%) hemorrhage. Most battlefield casualties died of their injuries before ever reaching a surgeon. As most pre-MTF deaths are nonsurvivable, mitigation strategies to impact outcomes in this population need to be directed

Operationalizing Civilian Protection in Mali: The Case for a Civilian Casualty Tracking, Analysis, and Response Cell

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marla B. Keenan

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This practice note details an emerging best practice of civilian harm mitigation in armed conflict: namely, the creation of civilian casualty tracking, analysis and response processes by a warring party or peace operation force. It asserts that in Iraq, Afghanistan and soon Somalia, these processes to better understand civilian harm and address consequences have positively shaped mission tactics, training, and overall operations. In both Iraq and Afghanistan, tracking and analysis has lead to a marked decrease in civilian casualties and facilitated the making of amends for any civilian losses. The paper argues that for warring parties to achieve their mission—particularly one with a protection of civilians mandate as with the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA—they must fully understand the impact of their actions on the civilian population, positive or negative. For this reason, a Civilian Casualty Tracking, Analysis, and Response Cell should be created for MINUSMA to improve its ability mitigate risk to civilians as required by its Security Council mandate.

Virtual reality and live simulation: a comparison between two simulation tools for assessing mass casualty triage skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Luigi Ingrassia, Pier; Ragazzoni, Luca; Carenzo, Luca; Colombo, Davide; Ripoll Gallardo, Alba; Della Corte, Francesco

2015-04-01

This study tested the hypothesis that virtual reality simulation is equivalent to live simulation for testing naive medical students' abilities to perform mass casualty triage using the Simple Triage and Rapid Treatment (START) algorithm in a simulated disaster scenario and to detect the improvement in these skills after a teaching session. Fifty-six students in their last year of medical school were randomized into two groups (A and B). The same scenario, a car accident, was developed identically on the two simulation methodologies: virtual reality and live simulation. On day 1, group A was exposed to the live scenario and group B was exposed to the virtual reality scenario, aiming to triage 10 victims. On day 2, all students attended a 2-h lecture on mass casualty triage, specifically the START triage method. On day 3, groups A and B were crossed over. The groups' abilities to perform mass casualty triage in terms of triage accuracy, intervention correctness, and speed in the scenarios were assessed. Triage and lifesaving treatment scores were assessed equally by virtual reality and live simulation on day 1 and on day 3. Both simulation methodologies detected an improvement in triage accuracy and treatment correctness from day 1 to day 3 (PVirtual reality simulation proved to be a valuable tool, equivalent to live simulation, to test medical students' abilities to perform mass casualty triage and to detect improvement in such skills.

Internet-accessible radiographic database of Vietnam War casualties for medical student education.

Science.gov (United States)

Critchley, Eric P; Smirniotopoulos, James G

2003-04-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of archiving radiographic images from Vietnam era conflict casualties into a personal computer-based electronic database of text and images and displaying the data using an Internet-accessible database for preservation and educational purposes. Thirty-two patient cases were selected at random from a pool of 1,000 autopsy reports in which radiographs were available. A total of 74 radiographs from these cases were digitized using a commercial image scanner and then uploaded into an Internet accessible database. The quality of the digitized images was assessed by administering an image-based test to a group of 12 medical students. No statistically significant (p > 0.05) differences were found between test scores when using the original radiographs versus using the digitized radiographs on the Internet-accessible database. An Internet-accessible database is capable of effectively archiving Vietnam era casualty radiographs for educational purposes.

Modification of Measures of Acute Kidney Injury to Risk Stratify Combat Casualties

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-26

REPORT TYPE 08/26/2017 Poster 4. TJTLE AND SUBTITLE t\\.1odification of l’vfeasures,of Acute Kidney Injury to Risk Stratify Cotnbat Casualties 6...profiles and potential future conflicts , identifying acute kidney injury (AKI) early can help us determine the need for rapidity of evacuation

Improving PAGER's real-time earthquake casualty and loss estimation toolkit: a challenge

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, K.S.; Wald, D.J.

2012-01-01

We describe the on-going developments of PAGER’s loss estimation models, and discuss value-added web content that can be generated related to exposure, damage and loss outputs for a variety of PAGER users. These developments include identifying vulnerable building types in any given area, estimating earthquake-induced damage and loss statistics by building type, and developing visualization aids that help locate areas of concern for improving post-earthquake response efforts. While detailed exposure and damage information is highly useful and desirable, significant improvements are still necessary in order to improve underlying building stock and vulnerability data at a global scale. Existing efforts with the GEM’s GED4GEM and GVC consortia will help achieve some of these objectives. This will benefit PAGER especially in regions where PAGER’s empirical model is less-well constrained; there, the semi-empirical and analytical models will provide robust estimates of damage and losses. Finally, we outline some of the challenges associated with rapid casualty and loss estimation that we experienced while responding to recent large earthquakes worldwide.

Management of Open Pneumothorax in Tactical Combat Casualty Care: TCCC Guidelines Change 13-02.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Frank K; Dubose, Joseph J; Otten, Edward J; Bennett, Donald R; Gerhardt, Robert T; Kheirabadi, Bijan S; Gross, Kriby R; Cap, Andrew P; Littlejohn, Lanny F; Edgar, Erin P; Shackelford, Stacy A; Blackbourne, Lorne H; Kotwal, Russ S; Holcomb, John B; Bailey, Jeffrey A

2013-01-01

During the recent United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) and Joint Trauma System (JTS) assessment of prehospital trauma care in Afghanistan, the deployed director of the Joint Theater Trauma System (JTTS), CAPT Donald R. Bennett, questioned why TCCC recommends treating a nonlethal injury (open pneumothorax) with an intervention (a nonvented chest seal) that could produce a lethal condition (tension pneumothorax). New research from the U.S. Army Institute of Surgical Research (USAISR) has found that, in a model of open pneumothorax treated with a chest seal in which increments of air were added to the pleural space to simulate an air leak from an injured lung, use of a vented chest seal prevented the subsequent development of a tension pneumothorax, whereas use of a nonvented chest seal did not. The updated TCCC Guideline for the battlefield management of open pneumothorax is: ?All open and/ or sucking chest wounds should be treated by immediately applying a vented chest seal to cover the defect. If a vente chest seal is not available, use a non-vented chest seal. Monitor the casualty for the potential development of a subsequent tension pneumothorax. If the casualty develops increasing hypoxia, respiratory distress, or hypotension and a tension pneumothorax is suspected, treat by burping or removing the dressing or by needle decompression.? This recommendation was approved by the required two-thirds majority of the Committee on TCCC in June 2013. 2013.

Optimization of Nonambulant Mass Casualty Decontamination Protocols as Part of an Initial or Specialist Operational Response to Chemical Incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Chilcott, Robert P; Mitchell, Hannah; Matar, Hazem

2018-05-30

The UK's Initial Operational Response (IOR) is a new process for improving the survival of multiple casualties following a chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear incident. Whilst the introduction of IOR represents a patient-focused response for ambulant casualties, there is currently no provision for disrobe and dry decontamination of nonambulant casualties. Moreover, the current specialist operational response (SOR) protocol for nonambulant casualty decontamination (also referred to as "clinical decontamination") has not been subject to rigorous evaluation or development. Therefore, the aim of this study was to confirm the effectiveness of putatively optimized dry (IOR) and wet (SOR) protocols for nonambulant decontamination in human volunteers. Dry and wet decontamination protocols were objectively evaluated using human volunteers. Decontamination effectiveness was quantified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis of the recovery of a chemical warfare agent simulant (methylsalicylate) from skin and hair of volunteers, with whole-body fluorescence imaging to quantify the skin distribution of residual simulant. Both the dry and wet decontamination processes were rapid (3 and 4 min, respectively) and were effective in removing simulant from the hair and skin of volunteers, with no observable adverse effects related to skin surface spreading of contaminant. Further studies are required to assess the combined effectiveness of dry and wet decontamination under more realistic conditions and to develop appropriate operational procedures that ensure the safety of first responders.

Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

2011-05-01

This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating the Joint Theater Trauma Registry as a data source to benchmark casualty care.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Karen M; Littleton-Kearney, Marguerite T; Bridges, Elizabeth; Bibb, Sandra C

2012-05-01

Just as data from civilian trauma registries have been used to benchmark and evaluate civilian trauma care, data contained within the Joint Theater Trauma Registry (JTTR) present a unique opportunity to benchmark combat care. Using the iterative steps of the benchmarking process, we evaluated data in the JTTR for suitability and established benchmarks for 24-hour mortality in casualties with polytrauma and a moderate or severe blunt traumatic brain injury (TBI). Mortality at 24 hours was greatest in those with polytrauma and a severe blunt TBI. No mortality was seen in casualties with polytrauma and a moderate blunt TBI. Secondary insults after TBI, especially hypothermia and hypoxemia, increased the odds of 24-hour mortality. Data contained in the JTTR were found to be suitable for establishing benchmarks. JTTR data may be useful in establishing benchmarks for other outcomes and types of combat injuries.

United States Army Rangers in Somalia: An Analysis of Combat Casualties on an Urban Battlefield

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Mabry, Robert L; Holcomb, John B; Baker, Andrew M; Cloonan, Clifford C; Uhorchak, John M; Perkins, Denver E; Canfield, Anthony J; Hagmann, John H

2000-01-01

.... From July 1998 to March 1999 data were collected for a retrospective analysis of all combat casualties sustained by United States military forces in Mogadishu, Somalia, on October 3 and 4, 1993...

46 CFR 185.220 - Records of a voyage resulting in a marine casualty.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

....220 Section 185.220 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) OPERATIONS Marine Casualties and Voyage Records § 185.220 Records of a... officer, or person responsible for the custody thereof, shall make these records available upon request...

Systematic review of strategies to manage and allocate scarce resources during mass casualty events.

Science.gov (United States)

Timbie, Justin W; Ringel, Jeanne S; Fox, D Steven; Pillemer, Francesca; Waxman, Daniel A; Moore, Melinda; Hansen, Cynthia K; Knebel, Ann R; Ricciardi, Richard; Kellermann, Arthur L

2013-06-01

Efficient management and allocation of scarce medical resources can improve outcomes for victims of mass casualty events. However, the effectiveness of specific strategies has never been systematically reviewed. We analyze published evidence on strategies to optimize the management and allocation of scarce resources across a wide range of mass casualty event contexts and study designs. Our literature search included MEDLINE, Scopus, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Global Health, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, from 1990 through late 2011. We also searched the gray literature, using the New York Academy of Medicine's Grey Literature Report and key Web sites. We included both English- and foreign-language articles. We included studies that evaluated strategies used in actual mass casualty events or tested through drills, exercises, or computer simulations. We excluded studies that lacked a comparison group or did not report quantitative outcomes. Data extraction, quality assessment, and strength of evidence ratings were conducted by a single researcher and reviewed by a second; discrepancies were reconciled by the 2 reviewers. Because of heterogeneity in outcome measures, we qualitatively synthesized findings within categories of strategies. From 5,716 potentially relevant citations, 74 studies met inclusion criteria. Strategies included reducing demand for health care services (18 studies), optimizing use of existing resources (50), augmenting existing resources (5), implementing crisis standards of care (5), and multiple categories (4). The evidence was sufficient to form conclusions on 2 strategies, although the strength of evidence was rated as low. First, as a strategy to reduce demand for health care services, points of dispensing can be used to efficiently distribute biological countermeasures after a bioterrorism attack or influenza pandemic, and their organization influences speed of

Blood transfusion is associated with infection and increased resource utilization in combat casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, James R; Riddle, Mark S; Danko, Janine; Hayden, Rich; Petersen, Kyle

2006-07-01

Combat casualty care has made significant advances in recent years, including administration of blood products in far-forward locations. However, recent studies have shown blood transfusion to be a significant risk factor for infection and increased resource utilization in critically injured patients. We therefore sought to investigate the incidence of blood transfusion and its association with infection and resource utilization in combat casualties. Prospective data were collected and retrospectively reviewed on 210 critically injured patients admitted to the USNS Comfort over a 7-week period during the 2003 assault phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom. Patients were stratified by age, gender, and injury severity score (ISS). Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess blood transfusion and hematocrit (HCT) as independent risk factors for infection and intensive care unit (ICU) admission controlling for age, gender, and ISS. The study cohort had a mean age of 30 +/- 2 years, a mean ISS of 14 +/- 3, 84 per cent were male, and 88 per cent sustained penetrating trauma. Blood transfusion was required in 44 per cent (n = 93) of the study cohort. Transfused patients had a higher ISS (18 +/- 4 vs. 10 +/- 3, P transfused. Patients receiving blood transfusion had an increased infection rate (69% vs. 18%, P transfused and nontransfused patients. Multivariate binomial regression analysis identified blood transfusion and HCT as independent risk factors for infection (P blood transfusion as an independent risk factor for ICU admission (P blood transfusion. Blood transfusion is an independent risk factor for infection and increased resource utilization. Therefore, consideration should be given to the use of alternative blood substitutes and recombinant human erythropoietin in the treatment and management of combat casualties.

Modeling warfare in social animals: a "chemical" approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Santarlasci, Alisa; Martelloni, Gianluca; Frizzi, Filippo; Santini, Giacomo; Bagnoli, Franco

2014-01-01

We present here a general method for modelling the dynamics of battles among social animals. The proposed method exploits the procedures widely used to model chemical reactions, but still uncommon in behavioural studies. We applied this methodology to the interpretation of experimental observations of battles between two species of ants (Lasius neglectus and Lasius paralienus), but this scheme may have a wider applicability and can be extended to other species as well. We performed two types of experiment labelled as interaction and mortality. The interaction experiments are designed to obtain information on the combat dynamics and lasted one hour. The mortality ones provide information on the casualty rates of the two species and lasted five hours. We modelled the interactions among ants using a chemical model which considers the single ant individuals and fighting groups analogously to atoms and molecules. The mean-field behaviour of the model is described by a set of non-linear differential equations. We also performed stochastic simulations of the corresponding agent-based model by means of the Gillespie event-driven integration scheme. By fitting the stochastic trajectories with the deterministic model, we obtained the probability distribution of the reaction parameters. The main result that we obtained is a dominance phase diagram, that gives the average trajectory of a generic battle, for an arbitrary number of opponents. This phase diagram was validated with some extra experiments. With respect to other war models (e.g., Lanchester's ones), our chemical model considers all phases of the battle and not only casualties. This allows a more detailed description of the battle (with a larger number of parameters), allowing the development of more sophisticated models (e.g., spatial ones), with the goal of distinguishing collective effects from the strategic ones.

Modeling Warfare in Social Animals: A "Chemical" Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Santarlasci, Alisa; Martelloni, Gianluca; Frizzi, Filippo; Santini, Giacomo; Bagnoli, Franco

2014-01-01

We present here a general method for modelling the dynamics of battles among social animals. The proposed method exploits the procedures widely used to model chemical reactions, but still uncommon in behavioural studies. We applied this methodology to the interpretation of experimental observations of battles between two species of ants (Lasius neglectus and Lasius paralienus), but this scheme may have a wider applicability and can be extended to other species as well. We performed two types of experiment labelled as interaction and mortality. The interaction experiments are designed to obtain information on the combat dynamics and lasted one hour. The mortality ones provide information on the casualty rates of the two species and lasted five hours. We modelled the interactions among ants using a chemical model which considers the single ant individuals and fighting groups analogously to atoms and molecules. The mean-field behaviour of the model is described by a set of non-linear differential equations. We also performed stochastic simulations of the corresponding agent-based model by means of the Gillespie event-driven integration scheme. By fitting the stochastic trajectories with the deterministic model, we obtained the probability distribution of the reaction parameters. The main result that we obtained is a dominance phase diagram, that gives the average trajectory of a generic battle, for an arbitrary number of opponents. This phase diagram was validated with some extra experiments. With respect to other war models (e.g., Lanchester's ones), our chemical model considers all phases of the battle and not only casualties. This allows a more detailed description of the battle (with a larger number of parameters), allowing the development of more sophisticated models (e.g., spatial ones), with the goal of distinguishing collective effects from the strategic ones. PMID:25369269

Modeling warfare in social animals: a "chemical" approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alisa Santarlasci

Full Text Available We present here a general method for modelling the dynamics of battles among social animals. The proposed method exploits the procedures widely used to model chemical reactions, but still uncommon in behavioural studies. We applied this methodology to the interpretation of experimental observations of battles between two species of ants (Lasius neglectus and Lasius paralienus, but this scheme may have a wider applicability and can be extended to other species as well. We performed two types of experiment labelled as interaction and mortality. The interaction experiments are designed to obtain information on the combat dynamics and lasted one hour. The mortality ones provide information on the casualty rates of the two species and lasted five hours. We modelled the interactions among ants using a chemical model which considers the single ant individuals and fighting groups analogously to atoms and molecules. The mean-field behaviour of the model is described by a set of non-linear differential equations. We also performed stochastic simulations of the corresponding agent-based model by means of the Gillespie event-driven integration scheme. By fitting the stochastic trajectories with the deterministic model, we obtained the probability distribution of the reaction parameters. The main result that we obtained is a dominance phase diagram, that gives the average trajectory of a generic battle, for an arbitrary number of opponents. This phase diagram was validated with some extra experiments. With respect to other war models (e.g., Lanchester's ones, our chemical model considers all phases of the battle and not only casualties. This allows a more detailed description of the battle (with a larger number of parameters, allowing the development of more sophisticated models (e.g., spatial ones, with the goal of distinguishing collective effects from the strategic ones.

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

Science.gov (United States)

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

2016-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

75 FR 38188 - Surety Companies Acceptable on Federal Bonds-Termination: Stonebridge Casualty Insurance Company

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... should be accepted from this company, and bonds that are continuous in nature should not be renewed. The... DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Fiscal Service [NAIC 10952] Surety Companies Acceptable on Federal Bonds--Termination: Stonebridge Casualty Insurance Company AGENCY: Financial Management Service, Fiscal...

Popliteal artery repair in massively transfused military trauma casualties: a pursuit to save life and limb.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Charles J; Perkins, Jeremy G; Kragh, John F; Singh, Niten N; Patel, Bhavin; Ficke, James R

2010-07-01

Popliteal artery war wounds can bleed severely and historically have high rates of amputation associated with ligation (72%) and repair (32%). More than before, casualties are now surviving the initial medical evacuation and presenting with severely injured limbs that prompt immediate limb salvage decisions in the midst of life-saving maneuvers. A modern analysis of current results may show important changes because previous limb salvage strategies were limited by the resuscitation and surgical techniques of their eras. Because exact comparisons between wars are difficult, the objective of this study was to calculate a worst-case (a pulseless, fractured limb with massive hemorrhage from popliteal artery injury) amputation-free survival rate for the most severely wounded soldiers undergoing immediate reconstruction to save both life and limb. We performed a retrospective study of trauma casualties admitted to the combat support hospital at Ibn Sina Hospital in Baghdad, Iraq, between 2003 and 2007. US military casualties requiring a massive transfusion (> or = 10 blood units transfused within 24 hours of injury) were identified. We extracted data on the subset of casualties with a penetrating supra or infrageniculate popliteal arterial vascular injury. Demographics, injury mechanism, Injury Severity Score, tourniquet use, physiologic parameters, damage control adjuncts, surgical repair techniques, operative time, and outcomes (all-cause 30-day mortality, amputation rates, limb salvage failure, and graft patency) were investigated. Forty-six massively transfused male casualties, median age 24 years (range, 19-54 years; mean Injury Severity Score, 19 +/- 8.0), underwent immediate orthopedic stabilization and vascular reconstruction. There was one early death. The median operative time for the vascular repairs was 217 minutes (range, 94-630 minutes) and included all damage control procedures. Combined arterial and venous injuries occurred in 17 (37%). Ligation was

Protective measures while treating CWA casualties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medema, J.

2009-01-01

When Chemical Warfare agent casualties are brought into a medical facility they are usually decontaminated before receiving treatment. The decontamination can range from simply undressing to complex entry/exit procedures for a collective protection medical shelter. It is expected that the decontamination has reduced the contamination to such a degree that there is no more hazard for the medical personnel from emanating CWA vapors. However there is quite some evidence that this is usually not the case and additional protective measures are required in order to have the medical staff operating unhindered and not endangered by albeit low but still hazardous CWA vapor concentrations that at the end of the day would have adverse effects on the capabilities of the medical staff. In the paper some simple but effective means will be described that will reduce the exposure of the medical staff to.(author)

Research issues in preparedness for mass casualty events, disaster, war, and terrorism.

Science.gov (United States)

Hinton Walker, Patricia; Garmon Bibb, Sandra C; Elberson, Karen L

2005-09-01

This article provides a perspective on the types of research questions that might be explored and strategies used in relation to disaster,terrorism, and mass casualty events. Research is addressed in the context of three areas of focus: issues related to the health care provider; issues affecting the patient, individual, family, and community; and issues related to the health care system.

Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

2015-01-01

We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

Modeling dynamic swarms

KAUST Repository

Ghanem, Bernard

2013-01-01

This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Principles of Emergency Department facility design for optimal management of mass-casualty incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Halpern, Pinchas; Goldberg, Scott A; Keng, Jimmy G; Koenig, Kristi L

2012-04-01

The Emergency Department (ED) is the triage, stabilization and disposition unit of the hospital during a mass-casualty incident (MCI). With most EDs already functioning at or over capacity, efficient management of an MCI requires optimization of all ED components. While the operational aspects of MCI management have been well described, the architectural/structural principles have not. Further, there are limited reports of the testing of ED design components in actual MCI events. The objective of this study is to outline the important infrastructural design components for optimization of ED response to an MCI, as developed, implemented, and repeatedly tested in one urban medical center. In the authors' experience, the most important aspects of ED design for MCI have included external infrastructure and promoting rapid lockdown of the facility for security purposes; an ambulance bay permitting efficient vehicle flow and casualty discharge; strategic placement of the triage location; patient tracking techniques; planning adequate surge capacity for both patients and staff; sufficient command, control, communications, computers, and information; well-positioned and functional decontamination facilities; adequate, well-located and easily distributed medical supplies; and appropriately built and functioning essential services. Designing the ED to cope well with a large casualty surge during a disaster is not easy, and it may not be feasible for all EDs to implement all the necessary components. However, many of the components of an appropriate infrastructural design add minimal cost to the normal expenditures of building an ED. This study highlights the role of design and infrastructure in MCI preparedness in order to assist planners in improving their ED capabilities. Structural optimization calls for a paradigm shift in the concept of structural and operational ED design, but may be necessary in order to maximize surge capacity, department resilience, and patient and

Review of various dynamic modeling methods and development of an intuitive modeling method for dynamic systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun

2008-01-01

Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables

Management of the mass casualty from the 2001 Jos crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozoilo, K N; Kidmas, A T; Nwadiaro, H C; Iya, D; Onche, I I; Misauno, M A; Sule, A Z; Yiltok, S J; Uba, A F; Ramyil, V M; Dakum, N K; Ugwu, B T

2014-01-01

We report our experience in the hospital management of mass casualty following the Jos civil crisis of 2001. A retrospective analysis of the records of patients managed in the Jos civil crisis of September 2001, in Plateau State, Nigeria. Information extracted included demographic data of patients, mechanisms of injury, nature and site of injury, treatment modalities and outcome of care. A total of 463 crisis victims presented over a 5 day period. Out of these, the records of 389 (84.0%) were available and analyzed. There were 348 (89.5%) males and 41 females (10.5%) aged between 3 weeks and 70 years, with a median age of 26 years. Most common mechanisms of injury were gunshot in 176 patients (45.2%) and blunt injuries from clubs and sticks in 140 patients (36.0%). Debridement with or without suturing was the most common surgical procedure, performed in 128 patients (33%) followed by exploratory laparotomy in 27 (6.9%) patients. Complications were documented in 55 patients (14.1%) and there were 16 hospital deaths (4.1% mortality). Challenges included exhaustion of supplies, poor communication and security threats both within the hospital and outside. Most patients reaching the hospital alive had injuries that did not require lifesaving interventions. Institutional preparedness plan would enable the hospital to have an organized approach to care, with better chances of success. More effective means of containing crises should be employed to reduce the attendant casualty rate.

Bird casualties and wind turbines near the Kreekrak sluices of Zeeland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Musters, C.J.M.; Noordervliet, M.A.W.; Ter Keurs, W.J.

1995-03-01

The impact of wind turbines on birds was investigated for an estuary, situated near the North Sea coast in the Dutch province of Zeeland, with large amount of bird migration. Five 250 kW, three-bladed 25m, 40 rpm turbines were installed on the western side of a dike. The distance between the turbines is 125 m. Since 1 April 1990 the turbines have been in action almost continuously. The study on the title subject was set up to investigate the number of bird casualties caused by the five wind turbines near the sluices of Kreekrak and the number that may be expected to be caused by a total of 20 turbines. The study also focused on the number of casualties among rare birds in relation to those among the common birds as a result of the wind turbines in the Kreekrak area. An area of 125 x 125 m around each wind turbine, consisting partly of land and partly of water, was searched for dead birds every other day during a period of one year (28 April 1990 - 29 April 1991). During this one-year period, the bodies of 26 birds of 17 different species were found; six birds were certainly or almost certainly killed by the turbines. In three other cases, the birds may have died because of the turbines, while in the case of eight birds, it was not possible to determine the cause of death. The remaining nine birds were not killed by the wind turbines. The annual number of bird victims expected following the installation of 20 wind turbines was estimated at a minimum of 7 and a maximum of 142. For each species a correlation was found between the number of victims and the estimated number of visitors to the area. This suggests that the rare species among the birds were not excessively endangered by the turbines. The number of bird casualties per turbine was low in comparison with the results of other Dutch investigations. On the basis of these results, it is concluded that there is no reason to advise against increasing the number of wind turbines near the sluices of Kreekrak to 20. 3

Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

Science.gov (United States)

Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

2015-01-01

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

NATO Allied Medical Publication 7.5 (AMedP 7.5) NATO Planning Guide for the Estimation of CBRN Casualties

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

PROMULGATION [ Date ] 1. The enclosed Allied Medical Publication AMedP-7.5, NATO Planning Guide for the Estimation of CBRN Casualties, which has been... radioisotopes modeled are 60Co, 90Sr, 99Mo, 125I, 131I, 137Cs, 192Ir, 226Ra, 238Pu, 241Am, 252Cf. 2) Whole-body irradiation (from cloudshine, groundshine,9... Earth Shelter 16.67 66.67 Exposed/Dismounted 1.00 1.00 Foxhole (nuclear only)† 3.00 10.00 Masonry Building 8.33 6.67 Multi-Story Brick Building 1.33

Consensus on items and quantities of clinical equipment required to deal with a mass casualties big bang incident: a national Delphi study.

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Edward A S; Colver, Keith; Dougall, Nadine; Swingler, Kevin; Stephenson, John; Abhyankar, Purva

2014-02-22

Major short-notice or sudden impact incidents, which result in a large number of casualties, are rare events. However health services must be prepared to respond to such events appropriately. In the United Kingdom (UK), a mass casualties incident is when the normal response of several National Health Service organizations to a major incident, has to be supported with extraordinary measures. Having the right type and quantity of clinical equipment is essential, but planning for such emergencies is challenging. To date, the equipment stored for such events has been selected on the basis of local clinical judgment and has evolved without an explicit evidence-base. This has resulted in considerable variations in the types and quantities of clinical equipment being stored in different locations. This study aimed to develop an expert consensus opinion of the essential items and minimum quantities of clinical equipment that is required to treat 100 people at the scene of a big bang mass casualties event. A three round modified Delphi study was conducted with 32 experts using a specifically developed web-based platform. Individuals were invited to participate if they had personal clinical experience of providing a pre-hospital emergency medical response to a mass casualties incident, or had responsibility in health emergency planning for mass casualties incidents and were in a position of authority within the sphere of emergency health planning. Each item's importance was measured on a 5-point Likert scale. The quantity of items required was measured numerically. Data were analyzed using nonparametric statistics. Experts achieved consensus on a total of 134 items (54%) on completion of the study. Experts did not reach consensus on 114 (46%) items. Median quantities and interquartile ranges of the items, and their recommended quantities were identified and are presented. This study is the first to produce an expert consensus on the items and quantities of clinical equipment

The pros and cons of vaious optical media for the soldier's interfacility radiographic record (SIRR) in the combat casualty care system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerlin, B.D.; Johnson, W.P.

1989-01-01

Ongoing research and evaluation projects sponsored by the Army Medical Research and Development Command are leading towards filmless radiography in the combat casualty care system of the 1990s. With the elimination of film, the question arises as to the most appropriate medium for archiving and transporting X-ray images and related patient data with the wounded between facilities. This paper considers the pros and cons of the various candidate media in relation to their specifications, availability, and appropriateness under simulated combat casualty care conditions

The Pros And Cons Of Various Optical Media For The Soldier's Interfacility Radiographic Record (SIRR) In The Combat Casualty Care System

Science.gov (United States)

Kerlin, Barbara D.; Johnson, William P.

1989-05-01

Ongoing research and evaluation projects sponsored by the Army Medical Research and Development Command are leading towards filmless radiography in the combat casualty care system of the 1990s. With the elimination of film, the question arises as to the most appropriate medium for archiving and transporting x-ray images and related patient data with the wounded between facilities. This paper considers the pros and cons of the various candidate media in relation to their specifications, availability, and appropriateness under simulated combat casualty care conditions.

Pre-hospital management of mass casualty civilian shootings: a systematic literature review

OpenAIRE

Turner, Conor D. A.; Lockey, David J.; Rehn, Marius

2016-01-01

Background Mass casualty civilian shootings present an uncommon but recurring challenge to emergency services around the world and produce unique management demands. On the background of a rising threat of transnational terrorism worldwide, emergency response strategies are of critical importance. This study aims to systematically identify, describe and appraise the quality of indexed and non-indexed literature on the pre-hospital management of modern civilian mass shootings to guide future p...

Analysis of the Causes of Maritime Casualties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jelenko Švetak

2003-01-01

Full Text Available A survey of total loss accidents in merchant shipping over aperiod of 30 years shows that these can be arranged in the followingorder: stranding, fire, water-leaks, gales and collision;other accidents are also taken into consideration. The analysisconsiders ships over 500 GT of different flags, plying any routeof navigation.Initially, a sample of 500 merchant ships- of different typesand tonnage- and under 15 different flags is analyzed to determineage and type of ship, and the causes of accidents.In the second analysis, the same 15 flags are considered,but now over a wider range on a sample totalling 1,500 merchantships. The results of both analyses are compared. It isshown that all collisions together with gale amount to 25% ofmaritime casualty returns -in the total loss lists- while strandingand collision take more than 40% of the toll.

Dynamic Latent Classification Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...

A Descriptive Analysis of Tactical Casualty Care Interventions Performed by Law Enforcement Personnel in the State of Wisconsin, 2010-2015.

Science.gov (United States)

Stiles, Chad M; Cook, Christopher; Sztajnkrycer, Matthew D

2017-06-01

Introduction Based upon military experience, law enforcement has developed guidelines for medical care during high-threat conditions. The purpose of the current study was to provide a descriptive analysis of reported outcomes of law enforcement medical interventions. This was a descriptive analysis of a convenience sample of cases submitted to the Wisconsin Tactical Medicine Initiative (Wisconsin USA), after the provision of successful patient care, between January 2010 and December 2015. The study was reviewed by the Mayo Foundation Institutional Review Board (Rochester, Minnesota USA) and deemed exempt. Nineteen agencies submitted information during the study period. Of the 56 episodes of care reported, four (7.1%) cases involved care provided to injured officers while 52 (92.9%) involved care to injured civilians, including suspects. In at least two cases, on-going threats existed during the provision of medical care to an injured civilian. Law enforcement rendered care prior to Emergency Medical Services (EMS) arrival in all but two cases. The current case series demonstrates the life-saving potential for law enforcement personnel trained and equipped under current Tactical Combat Casualty Care (TCCC)/ Committee on Tactical Emergency Casualty Care (C-TECC) tactical casualty care guidelines. Although originally developed to save the lives of wounded combat personnel, in the civilian sector, the training appears more likely to save victims rather than law enforcement personnel. Stiles CM , Cook C , Sztajnkrycer MD . A descriptive analysis of tactical casualty care interventions performed by law enforcement personnel in the State of Wisconsin, 2010-2015. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(3):284-288.

Modeling dynamic swarms

KAUST Repository

Ghanem, Bernard; Ahuja, Narendra

2013-01-01

This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal

46 CFR 185.210 - Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in... whether there is any evidence of alcohol or drug use by individuals directly involved in the casualty. (b... evidence of drug or alcohol use, or evidence of intoxication, has been obtained; and (2) Specifies the...

27 CFR 25.282 - Beer lost by fire, theft, casualty, or act of God.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Beer lost by fire, theft... TAX AND TRADE BUREAU, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY LIQUORS BEER Refund or Adjustment of Tax or Relief From Liability § 25.282 Beer lost by fire, theft, casualty, or act of God. (a) General. The tax paid by...

Nuclear and radiological risk: contaminated mass casualties in the hospital

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Telion, C.; Lejay, M.; Carli, P.

2006-01-01

The basic scenario for the medical response organization is the explosion of the dirty bomb in public places spreading radioactive material and contaminating casualties. The French plan gives precise directions for the organization of the emergency room and the simple protective measures for medical staff and equipment to avoid dissemination and contamination into the hospital. Decontamination consists of the undressing of the victims followed by showering. The detection of the contamination can limit the time-consuming unnecessary decontamination procedure and the radioactive waste. Medical and paramedical staff is trained to wear protective disposal paper suits and to direct the procedure of decontamination. (author)

Models for Dynamic Applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina

2011-01-01

This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...... be applied to formulate, analyse and solve these dynamic problems and how in the case of the fuel cell problem the model consists of coupledmeso and micro scale models. It is shown how data flows are handled between the models and how the solution is obtained within the modelling environment....

Corruption dynamics model

Science.gov (United States)

Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal

2017-07-01

The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.

Short Text Messages (SMS) as an Additional Tool for Notifying Medical Staff in Case of a Hospital Mass Casualty Incident.

Science.gov (United States)

Timler, Dariusz; Bogusiak, Katarzyna; Kasielska-Trojan, Anna; Neskoromna-Jędrzejczak, Aneta; Gałązkowski, Robert; Szarpak, Łukasz

2016-02-01

The aim of the study was to verify the effectiveness of short text messages (short message service, or SMS) as an additional notification tool in case of fire or a mass casualty incident in a hospital. A total of 2242 SMS text messages were sent to 59 hospital workers divided into 3 groups (n=21, n=19, n=19). Messages were sent from a Samsung GT-S8500 Wave cell phone and Orange Poland was chosen as the telecommunication provider. During a 3-month trial period, messages were sent between 3:35 PM and midnight with no regular pattern. Employees were asked to respond by telling how much time it would take them to reach the hospital in case of a mass casualty incident. The mean reaction time (SMS reply) was 36.41 minutes. The mean declared time of arrival to the hospital was 100.5 minutes. After excluding 10% of extreme values for declared arrival time, the mean arrival time was estimated as 38.35 minutes. Short text messages (SMS) can be considered an additional tool for notifying medical staff in case of a mass casualty incident.

Exploring the perception of aid organizations' staff about factors affecting management of mass casualty traffic incidents in Iran: a grounded theory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bazeli, Javad; Aryankhesal, Aidin; Khorasani-Zavareh, Davoud

2017-07-01

Traffic incidents are of main health issues all around the world and cause countless deaths, heavy casualties, and considerable tangible and intangible damage. In this regard, mass casualty traffic incidents are worthy of special attention as, in addition to all losses and damage, they create challenges in the way of providing health services to the victims. The present study is an attempt to explore the challenges and facilitators in management of mass casualty traffic incidents in Iran. This qualitative grounded theory study was carried out with participation of 14 purposively selected experienced managers, paramedics and staff of aid organizations in different provinces of Iran in 2016. Semi-structured interviews were conducted in order to develop the theory. The transcribed interviews were analyzed through open, axial and selective coding. Despite the recent and relatively good improvements in facilities and management procedure of mass casualty traffic incidents in Iran, several problems such as lack of coordination, lack of centralized and integrated command system, large number of organizations participating in operations, duplicate attempts and parallel operations carried out by different organizations, intervention of lay people, and cultural factors halt provision of effective health services to the victims. It is necessary to improve the theoretical and practical knowledge of the relief personnel and paramedics, provide public with education about first aid and improve driving culture, prohibit laypeople from intervening in aid operations, and increase quality and quantity of aid facilities.

Dynamic Linear Models with R

CERN Document Server

Campagnoli, Patrizia; Petris, Giovanni

2009-01-01

State space models have gained tremendous popularity in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. Introducing general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. It illustrates the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R package.

MiRTE: Mixed Reality Triage and Evacuation game for Mass Casualty information systems design, testing and training.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Xunyi; Ganz, Aura

2011-01-01

In this paper we introduce a Mixed Reality Triage and Evacuation game, MiRTE, that is used in the development, testing and training of Mass Casualty Incident (MCI) information systems for first responders. Using the Source game engine from Valve software, MiRTE creates immersive virtual environments to simulate various incident scenarios, and enables interactions between multiple players/first responders. What distinguishes it from a pure computer simulation game is that it can interface with external mass casualty incident management systems, such as DIORAMA. The game will enable system developers to specify technical requirements of underlying technology, and test different alternatives of design. After the information system hardware and software are completed, the game can simulate various algorithms such as localization technologies, and interface with an actual user interface on PCs and Smartphones. We implemented and tested the game with the DIORAMA system.

Modelling dynamic roughness during floods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.

2007-01-01

In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most

Integration of Tactical Emergency Casualty Care Into the National Tactical Emergency Medical Support Competency Domains.

Science.gov (United States)

Pennardt, Andre; Callaway, David W; Kamin, Rich; Llewellyn, Craig; Shapiro, Geoff; Carmona, Philip A; Schwartz, Richard B

2016-01-01

Tactical emergency medical support (TEMS) is a critical component of the out-of-hospital response to domestic high-threat incidents such as hostage scenarios, warrant service, active shooter or violent incidents, terrorist attacks, and other intentional mass casualty-producing acts. From its grass-roots inception in the form of medical support of select law enforcement special weapons and tactics (SWAT) units in the 1980s, the TEMS subspecialty of prehospital care has rapidly grown and evolved over the past 40 years. The National TEMS Initiative and Council (NTIC) competencies and training objectives are the only published recommendations of their kind and offer the opportunity for national standardization of TEMS training programs and a future accreditation process. Building on the previous work of the NTIC and the creation of acknowledged competency domains for TEMS and the acknowledged civilian translation of TCCC by the Committee for Tactical Emergency Casualty Care (C-TECC), the Joint Review Committee (JRC) has created an opportunity to bring forward the work in a form that could be operationally useful in an all-hazards and whole of community format. 2016.

An Integrated and Interdisciplinary Model for Predicting the Risk of Injury and Death in Future Earthquakes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shapira, Stav; Novack, Lena; Bar-Dayan, Yaron; Aharonson-Daniel, Limor

2016-01-01

A comprehensive technique for earthquake-related casualty estimation remains an unmet challenge. This study aims to integrate risk factors related to characteristics of the exposed population and to the built environment in order to improve communities' preparedness and response capabilities and to mitigate future consequences. An innovative model was formulated based on a widely used loss estimation model (HAZUS) by integrating four human-related risk factors (age, gender, physical disability and socioeconomic status) that were identified through a systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological data. The common effect measures of these factors were calculated and entered to the existing model's algorithm using logistic regression equations. Sensitivity analysis was performed by conducting a casualty estimation simulation in a high-vulnerability risk area in Israel. the integrated model outcomes indicated an increase in the total number of casualties compared with the prediction of the traditional model; with regard to specific injury levels an increase was demonstrated in the number of expected fatalities and in the severely and moderately injured, and a decrease was noted in the lightly injured. Urban areas with higher populations at risk rates were found more vulnerable in this regard. The proposed model offers a novel approach that allows quantification of the combined impact of human-related and structural factors on the results of earthquake casualty modelling. Investing efforts in reducing human vulnerability and increasing resilience prior to an occurrence of an earthquake could lead to a possible decrease in the expected number of casualties.

Mass casualty events: blood transfusion emergency preparedness across the continuum of care.

Science.gov (United States)

Doughty, Heidi; Glasgow, Simon; Kristoffersen, Einar

2016-04-01

Transfusion support is a key enabler to the response to mass casualty events (MCEs). Transfusion demand and capability planning should be an integrated part of the medical planning process for emergency system preparedness. Historical reviews have recently supported demand planning for MCEs and mass gatherings; however, computer modeling offers greater insights for resource management. The challenge remains balancing demand and supply especially the demand for universal components such as group O red blood cells. The current prehospital and hospital capability has benefited from investment in the management of massive hemorrhage. The management of massive hemorrhage should address both hemorrhage control and hemostatic support. Labile blood components cannot be stockpiled and a large surge in demand is a challenge for transfusion providers. The use of blood components may need to be triaged and demand managed. Two contrasting models of transfusion planning for MCEs are described. Both illustrate an integrated approach to preparedness where blood transfusion services work closely with health care providers and the donor community. Preparedness includes appropriate stock management and resupply from other centers. However, the introduction of alternative transfusion products, transfusion triage, and the greater use of an emergency donor panel to provide whole blood may permit greater resilience. © 2016 AABB.

Modelling MIZ dynamics in a global model

Science.gov (United States)

Rynders, Stefanie; Aksenov, Yevgeny; Feltham, Daniel; Nurser, George; Naveira Garabato, Alberto

2016-04-01

Exposure of large, previously ice-covered areas of the Arctic Ocean to the wind and surface ocean waves results in the Arctic pack ice cover becoming more fragmented and mobile, with large regions of ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ). The need for better climate predictions, along with growing economic activity in the Polar Oceans, necessitates climate and forecasting models that can simulate fragmented sea ice with a greater fidelity. Current models are not fully fit for the purpose, since they neither model surface ocean waves in the MIZ, nor account for the effect of floe fragmentation on drag, nor include sea ice rheology that represents both the now thinner pack ice and MIZ ice dynamics. All these processes affect the momentum transfer to the ocean. We present initial results from a global ocean model NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) coupled to the Los Alamos sea ice model CICE. The model setup implements a novel rheological formulation for sea ice dynamics, accounting for ice floe collisions, thus offering a seamless framework for pack ice and MIZ simulations. The effect of surface waves on ice motion is included through wave pressure and the turbulent kinetic energy of ice floes. In the multidecadal model integrations we examine MIZ and basin scale sea ice and oceanic responses to the changes in ice dynamics. We analyse model sensitivities and attribute them to key sea ice and ocean dynamical mechanisms. The results suggest that the effect of the new ice rheology is confined to the MIZ. However with the current increase in summer MIZ area, which is projected to continue and may become the dominant type of sea ice in the Arctic, we argue that the effects of the combined sea ice rheology will be noticeable in large areas of the Arctic Ocean, affecting sea ice and ocean. With this study we assert that to make more accurate sea ice predictions in the changing Arctic, models need to include MIZ dynamics and physics.

Dynamic accelerator modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishimura, Hiroshi.

1993-05-01

Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling

Dynamic Modelling Of A SCARA Robot

Science.gov (United States)

Turiel, J. Perez; Calleja, R. Grossi; Diez, V. Gutierrez

1987-10-01

This paper describes a method for modelling industrial robots that considers dynamic approach to manipulation systems motion generation, obtaining the complete dynamic model for the mechanic part of the robot and taking into account the dynamic effect of actuators acting at the joints. For a four degree of freedom SCARA robot we obtain the dynamic model for the basic (minimal) configuration, that is, the three degrees of freedom that allow us to place the robot end effector in a desired point, using the Lagrange Method to obtain the dynamic equations in matrix form. The manipulator is considered to be a set of rigid bodies inter-connected by joints in the form of simple kinematic pairs. Then, the state space model is obtained for the actuators that move the robot joints, uniting the models of the single actuators, that is, two DC permanent magnet servomotors and an electrohydraulic actuator. Finally, using a computer simulation program written in FORTRAN language, we can compute the matrices of the complete model.

The Significance of Witness Sensors for Mass Casualty Incidents and Epidemic Outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Chih-Long; Lin, Chih-Hao; Lin, Yan-Ren; Wen, Hsin-Yu; Wen, Jet-Chau

2018-02-02

Due to the increasing number of natural and man-made disasters, mass casualty incidents occur more often than ever before. As a result, health care providers need to adapt in order to cope with the overwhelming patient surge. To ensure quality and safety in health care, accurate information in pandemic disease control, death reduction, and health quality promotion should be highlighted. However, obtaining precise information in real time is an enormous challenge to all researchers of the field. In this paper, innovative strategies are presented to develop a sound information network using the concept of "witness sensors." To overcome the reliability and quality limitations of information obtained through social media, researchers must focus on developing solutions that secure the authenticity of social media messages, especially for matters related to health. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel concept based on the two elements of "witness" and "sensor." Witness sensors can be key players designated to minimize limitations to quality of information and to distinguish fact from fiction during critical events. In order to enhance health communication practices and deliver valid information to end users, the education and management of witness sensors should be further investigated, especially for implementation during mass casualty incidents and epidemic outbreaks. ©Chih-Long Pan, Chih-Hao Lin, Yan-Ren Lin, Hsin-Yu Wen, Jet-Chau Wen. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 02.02.2018.

Nurses' requirements for relief and casualty support in disasters: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nekooei Moghaddam, Mahmoud; Saeed, Sara; Khanjani, Narges; Arab, Mansour

2014-04-01

Nurses are among the most important groups engaged in casualty support, regardless of the cause, and they are one of the largest care groups involved in disasters. Consequently, these workers should gain proper support and skills to enable effective, timely, responsible and ethical emergency responses. In this study, we investigated the needs of nurses for proper casualty support in disasters, to facilitate better planning for disaster management. This was a qualitative content analysis study. Interviews were performed with 23 nurses, at educational hospitals and the Faculty of Nursing at Kerman Medical University, who had a minimum of five years working experience and assisted in an earthquake disaster. Intensity and snowball sampling were performed. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews. Interviews were transcribed and coded into main themes and subthemes. Four major themes emerged from the data; 1) psychological support, 2) appropriate clinical skills education, 3) appropriate disaster management, supervision and programming, and 4) the establishment of ready for action groups and emergency sites. The participants' comments highlighted the necessity of training nurses for special skills including emotion management, triage and crush syndrome, and to support nurses' families, provide security, and act according to predefined programs in disasters. There are a wide range of requirements for disaster aid. Proper aid worker selection, frequent and continuous administration of workshops and drills, and cooperation and alignment of different governmental and private organizations are among the suggested initiatives.

System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

2008-01-01

/methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...

Now and Then: Combat Casualty Care Policies for Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom Compared With Those of Vietnam

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cordts, Paul R; Brosch, Laura A; Holcomb, John B

2008-01-01

Between December 2004 and June 2007, 13 key Operation Iraqi Freedom/ Operation Enduring Freedom combat casualty care policies were published to inform medical practice in the combat theater of operations...

Minimizing casualties in biological and chemical threats (war and terrorism): the importance of information to the public in a prevention program.

Science.gov (United States)

Noy, Shabtai

2004-01-01

The most effective means of defending against biological or chemical warfare, whether in war or as a result of terror, is the use of primary prevention. The main goal of such a prevention program is to minimize the human loss by reducing the number of casualties (fatalities, physical wounds, and psychological injury). A secondary objective is to prevent the widespread sense of helplessness in the general population. These two aims complement each other. The more the public is active in defending itself, rather than viewing itself as helpless, the lesser the expected number of casualties of any kind. In order to achieve these two goals, educating the civilian population about risk factors and pointing out appropriate defensive strategies is critical. In the absence of an effective prevention program and active participation by the public, there is a high risk for massive numbers of physical and psychological casualties. An essential ingredient of any preventive program, which ultimately may determine the success or failure of all other protective actions, is early, gradual dissemination of information and guidance to the public, so that citizens can become active participants in the program. The public needs to be given information concerning the nature of the threat and effective methods of coping with it, should an unconventional attack occur. Lack of such adaptive behavior (such as wearing protective gear) is likely to bring about vast numbers of physical and psychological casualties. These large numbers may burden the medical, political, and public safety systems beyond their ability to manage. Failure to provide reasonable prevention and effective interventions can lead to a destruction of the social and emotional fabric of individuals and the society. Furthermore, inadequate preparation, education, and communication can result in the development of damaging mistrust of the political and military leadership, disintegration of social and political structures

Using the Design for Demise Philosophy to Reduce Casualty Risk Due to Reentering Spacecraft

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, R. L.

2012-01-01

Recently the reentry of a number of vehicles has garnered public attention due to their risk of human casualty due to fragments surviving reentry. In order to minimize this risk for their vehicles, a number of NASA programs have actively sought to minimize the number of components likely to survive reentry at the end of their spacecraft's life in order to meet and/or exceed NASA safety standards for controlled and uncontrolled reentering vehicles. This philosophy, referred to as "Design for Demise" or D4D, has steadily been adopted, to at least some degree, by numerous programs. The result is that many programs are requesting evaluations of components at the early stages of vehicle design, as they strive to find ways to reduce the number surviving components while ensuring that the components meet the performance requirements of their mission. This paper will discuss some of the methods that have been employed to ensure that the consequences of the vehicle s end-of-life are considered at the beginning of the design process. In addition this paper will discuss the technical challenges overcome, as well as some of the more creative solutions which have been utilized to reduce casualty risk.

Operation of emergency operating centers during mass casualty incidents in taiwan: a disaster management perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Jet-Chau; Tsai, Chia-Chou; Chen, Mei-Hsuan; Chang, Wei-Ta

2014-10-01

On April 27, 2011, a train derailed and crashed in Taiwan, causing a mass casualty incident (MCI) that was similar to a previous event and with similar consequences. In both disasters, the emergency operating centers (EOCs) could not effectively integrate associated agencies to deal with the incident. The coordination and utilization of resources were inefficient, which caused difficulty in command structure operation and casualty evacuation. This study was designed to create a survey questionnaire with problem items using disaster management phases mandated by Taiwan's Emergency Medical Care Law (EMCL), use statistical methods (t test) to analyze the results and issues the EOCs encountered during the operation, and propose solutions for those problems. Findings showed that EOCs lacked authority to intervene or coordinate with associated agencies. Also, placing emphasis on the recovery phase should improve future prevention and response mechanisms. To improve the response to MCIs, the EMCL needs to be amended to give EOCs the lead during disasters; use feedback from the recovery phase to improve future disaster management and operation coordination; and establish an information-sharing platform across agencies to address all aspects of relief work.(Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2014;0:1-6).

Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Langmead, Christopher James

2014-01-01

Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

[Travel time and distances to Norwegian out-of-hours casualty clinics].

Science.gov (United States)

Raknes, Guttorm; Morken, Tone; Hunskår, Steinar

2014-11-01

Geographical factors have an impact on the utilisation of out-of-hours services. In this study we have investigated the travel distance to out-of-hours casualty clinics in Norwegian municipalities in 2011 and the number of municipalities covered by the proposed recommendations for secondary on-call arrangements due to long distances. We estimated the average maximum travel times and distances in Norwegian municipalities using a postcode-based method. Separate analyses were performed for municipalities with a single, permanently located casualty clinic. Altogether 417 out of 430 municipalities were included. We present the median value of the maximum travel times and distances for the included municipalities. The median maximum average travel distance for the municipalities was 19 km. The median maximum average travel time was 22 minutes. In 40 of the municipalities (10 %) the median maximum average travel time exceeded 60 minutes, and in 97 municipalities (23 %) the median maximum average travel time exceeded 40 minutes. The population of these groups comprised 2 % and 5 % of the country's total population respectively. For municipalities with permanent emergency facilities(N = 316), the median average flight time 16 minutes and median average distance 13 km.. In many municipalities, the inhabitants have a long average journey to out-of-hours emergency health services, but seen as a whole, the inhabitants of these municipalities account for a very small proportion of the Norwegian population. The results indicate that the proposed recommendations for secondary on-call duty based on long distances apply to only a small number of inhabitants. The recommendations should therefore be adjusted and reformulated to become more relevant.

Unsteady Vibration Aerodynamic Modeling and Evaluation of Dynamic Derivatives Using Computational Fluid Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Unsteady aerodynamic system modeling is widely used to solve the dynamic stability problems encountering aircraft design. In this paper, single degree-of-freedom (SDF vibration model and forced simple harmonic motion (SHM model for dynamic derivative prediction are developed on the basis of modified Etkin model. In the light of the characteristics of SDF time domain solution, the free vibration identification methods for dynamic stability parameters are extended and applied to the time domain numerical simulation of blunted cone calibration model examples. The dynamic stability parameters by numerical identification are no more than 0.15% deviated from those by experimental simulation, confirming the correctness of SDF vibration model. The acceleration derivatives, rotary derivatives, and combination derivatives of Army-Navy Spinner Rocket are numerically identified by using unsteady N-S equation and solving different SHV patterns. Comparison with the experimental result of Army Ballistic Research Laboratories confirmed the correctness of the SHV model and dynamic derivative identification. The calculation result of forced SHM is better than that by the slender body theory of engineering approximation. SDF vibration model and SHM model for dynamic stability parameters provide a solution to the dynamic stability problem encountering aircraft design.

Dynamic Airspace Managment - Models and Algorithms

OpenAIRE

Cheng, Peng; Geng, Rui

2010-01-01

This chapter investigates the models and algorithms for implementing the concept of Dynamic Airspace Management. Three models are discussed. First two models are about how to use or adjust air route dynamically in order to speed up air traffic flow and reduce delay. The third model gives a way to dynamically generate the optimal sector configuration for an air traffic control center to both balance the controller’s workload and save control resources. The first model, called the Dynami...

Computer Modelling of Dynamic Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Rybakin

2000-10-01

Full Text Available Results of numerical modeling of dynamic problems are summed in the article up. These problems are characteristic for various areas of human activity, in particular for problem solving in ecology. The following problems are considered in the present work: computer modeling of dynamic effects on elastic-plastic bodies, calculation and determination of performances of gas streams in gas cleaning equipment, modeling of biogas formation processes.

Hybrid dynamics for currency modeling

OpenAIRE

Theodosopoulos, Ted; Trifunovic, Alex

2006-01-01

We present a simple hybrid dynamical model as a tool to investigate behavioral strategies based on trend following. The multiplicative symbolic dynamics are generated using a lognormal diffusion model for the at-the-money implied volatility term structure. Thus, are model exploits information from derivative markets to obtain qualititative properties of the return distribution for the underlier. We apply our model to the JPY-USD exchange rate and the corresponding 1mo., 3mo., 6mo. and 1yr. im...

Dynamic wake meandering modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Gunner C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Bingoel, F. (and others)

2007-06-15

We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by analytical as well as by numerical studies. The dynamic wake meandering philosophy has been verified by comparing model predictions with extensive full-scale measurements. These comparisons have demonstrated good agreement, both qualitatively and quantitatively, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as

Pre-hospital management of mass casualty civilian shootings: a systematic literature review.

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Conor D A; Lockey, David J; Rehn, Marius

2016-11-08

Mass casualty civilian shootings present an uncommon but recurring challenge to emergency services around the world and produce unique management demands. On the background of a rising threat of transnational terrorism worldwide, emergency response strategies are of critical importance. This study aims to systematically identify, describe and appraise the quality of indexed and non-indexed literature on the pre-hospital management of modern civilian mass shootings to guide future practice. Systematic literature searches of PubMed, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Scopus were conducted in conjunction with simple searches of non-indexed databases; Web of Science, OpenDOAR and Evidence Search. The searches were last carried out on 20 April 2016 and only identified those papers published after the 1 January 1980. Included documents had to contain descriptions, discussions or experiences of the pre-hospital management of civilian mass shootings. From the 494 identified manuscripts, 73 were selected on abstract and title and after full text reading 47 were selected for inclusion in analysis. The search yielded reports of 17 mass shooting events, the majority from the USA with additions from France, Norway, the UK and Kenya. Between 1994 and 2015 the shooting of 1649 people with 578 deaths at 17 separate events are described. Quality appraisal demonstrated considerable heterogeneity in reporting and revealed limited data on mass shootings globally. Key themes were identified to improve future practice: tactical emergency medical support may harmonise inner cordon interventions, a need for inter-service education on effective haemorrhage control, the value of senior triage operators and the need for regular mass casualty incident simulation.

Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

1980-01-01

Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

2015-12-01

Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

Science.gov (United States)

Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

2015-06-01

In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

[Traffic casualties and injuries: a problem of costs, too. A Swiss survey].

Science.gov (United States)

Martinoli, S; Quadri, B; Casabianca, A

1993-01-01

Based on an epidemiological observation in Ticino 1985, following statement is possible: in Switzerland every year 900 people dye in traffic casualties. Many victims of tragic accidents get lifetime disabled. Direct and indirect costs of traffic injuries are yearly 3 billions of swiss francs. Only a small percentage (6%) is devoted to medical treatment. The most part is due to compensation of income, disability with its allocations and lost productivity. Among "avoidable" deaths, traffic victims are an essential portion because the are young. More efforts should be undertaken to lower road mortality because she erodes the swiss population pyramid in a significant manner.

Wind Farm Decentralized Dynamic Modeling With Parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soltani, Mohsen; Shakeri, Sayyed Mojtaba; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

2010-01-01

Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...... local models. The results of this report are especially useful, but not limited, to design a decentralized wind farm controller, since in centralized controller design one can also use the model and update it in a central computing node.......Development of dynamic wind flow models for wind farms is part of the research in European research FP7 project AEOLUS. The objective of this report is to provide decentralized dynamic wind flow models with parameters. The report presents a structure for decentralized flow models with inputs from...

An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Treur, J.; Umair, M.

2011-01-01

The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

Basic Disaster Life Support (BDLS) Training Improves First Responder Confidence to Face Mass-Casualty Incidents in Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhls, Deborah A; Chestovich, Paul J; Coule, Phillip; Carrison, Dale M; Chua, Charleston M; Wora-Urai, Nopadol; Kanchanarin, Tavatchai

2017-10-01

Medical response to mass-casualty incidents (MCIs) requires specialized training and preparation. Basic Disaster Life Support (BDLS) is a course designed to prepare health care workers for a MCI. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the confidence of health care professionals in Thailand to face a MCI after participating in a BDLS course. Basic Disaster Life Support was taught to health care professionals in Thailand in July 2008. Demographics and medical experience were recorded, and participants rated their confidence before and after the course using a five-point Likert scale in 11 pertinent MCI categories. Survey results were compiled and compared with PBasic Disaster Life Support significantly improves confidence to respond to MCI situations, but nurses and active duty military benefit the most from the course. Future courses should focus on these groups to prepare for MCIs. Kuhls DA , Chestovich PJ , Coule P , Carrison DM , Chua CM , Wora-Urai N , Kanchanarin T . Basic Disaster Life Support (BDLS) training improves first responder confidence to face mass-casualty incidents in Thailand. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):492-500 .

Dynamic modeling method for infrared smoke based on enhanced discrete phase model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhendong; Yang, Chunling; Zhang, Yan; Zhu, Hongbo

2018-03-01

The dynamic modeling of infrared (IR) smoke plays an important role in IR scene simulation systems and its accuracy directly influences the system veracity. However, current IR smoke models cannot provide high veracity, because certain physical characteristics are frequently ignored in fluid simulation; simplifying the discrete phase as a continuous phase and ignoring the IR decoy missile-body spinning. To address this defect, this paper proposes a dynamic modeling method for IR smoke, based on an enhanced discrete phase model (DPM). A mathematical simulation model based on an enhanced DPM is built and a dynamic computing fluid mesh is generated. The dynamic model of IR smoke is then established using an extended equivalent-blackbody-molecule model. Experiments demonstrate that this model realizes a dynamic method for modeling IR smoke with higher veracity.

Supply based on demand dynamical model

Science.gov (United States)

Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.

2018-04-01

We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.

Mass-casualty Response to the Kiss Nightclub in Santa Maria, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Dal Ponte, Silvana T; Dornelles, Carlos F D; Arquilla, Bonnie; Bloem, Christina; Roblin, Patricia

2015-02-01

On January 27, 2013, a fire at the Kiss Nightclub in Santa Maria, Brazil led to a mass-casualty incident affecting hundreds of college students. A total of 234 people died on scene, 145 were hospitalized, and another 623 people received treatment throughout the first week following the incident.1 Eight of the hospitalized people later died.1 The Military Police were the first on scene, followed by the state fire department, and then the municipal Mobile Prehospital Assistance (SAMU) ambulances. The number of victims was not communicated clearly to the various units arriving on scene, leading to insufficient rescue personnel and equipment. Incident command was established on scene, but the rescuers and police were still unable to control the chaos of multiple bystanders attempting to assist in the rescue efforts. The Municipal Sports Center (CDM) was designated as the location for dead bodies, where victim identification and communication with families occurred, as well as forensic evaluation, which determined the primary cause of death to be asphyxia. A command center was established at the Hospital de Caridade Astrogildo de Azevedo (HCAA) in Santa Maria to direct where patients should be admitted, recruit staff, and procure additional supplies, as needed. The victims suffered primarily from smoke inhalation and many required endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation. There was a shortage of ventilators; therefore, some had to be borrowed from local hospitals, neighboring cities, and distant areas in the state. A total of 54 patients1 were transferred to hospitals in the capital city of Porto Alegre (Brazil). The main issues with the response to the fire were scene control and communication. Areas for improvement were identified, namely the establishment of a disaster-response plan, as well as regularly scheduled training in disaster preparedness/response. These activities are the first steps to improving mass-casualty responses.

Dynamic modeling of IGCC power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casella, F.; Colonna, P.

2012-01-01

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants are an effective option to reduce emissions and implement carbon-dioxide sequestration. The combination of a very complex fuel-processing plant and a combined cycle power station leads to challenging problems as far as dynamic operation is concerned. Dynamic performance is extremely relevant because recent developments in the electricity market push toward an ever more flexible and varying operation of power plants. A dynamic model of the entire system and models of its sub-systems are indispensable tools in order to perform computer simulations aimed at process and control design. This paper presents the development of the lumped-parameters dynamic model of an entrained-flow gasifier, with special emphasis on the modeling approach. The model is implemented into software by means of the Modelica language and validated by comparison with one set of data related to the steady operation of the gasifier of the Buggenum power station in the Netherlands. Furthermore, in order to demonstrate the potential of the proposed modeling approach and the use of simulation for control design purposes, a complete model of an exemplary IGCC power plant, including its control system, has been developed, by re-using existing models of combined cycle plant components; the results of a load dispatch ramp simulation are presented and shortly discussed. - Highlights: ► The acausal dynamic model of an entrained gasifier has been developed. ► The model can be used to perform system optimization and control studies. ► The model has been validated using field data. ► Model use is illustrated with an example showing the transient of an IGCC plant.

Dynamic term structure models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew

This paper studies whether dynamic term structure models for US nominal bond yields should enforce the zero lower bound by a quadratic policy rate or a shadow rate specification. We address the question by estimating quadratic term structure models (QTSMs) and shadow rate models with at most four...

Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

2012-01-01

We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.

High Reliability Organization and Applicability to the Battlefield to Reduce Errors Associated with Combat Casualty Care

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-10

use different terminology depending on which sister service they are from. Every service has various medical capabilities for each role of medical ... Medical Errors, Combat Casualty Care, Culture of Safety 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a...Army) AE Adverse event AHRQ Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality AHS Army Health System AMEDD Army Medical Department CPQ Clinical Practice

Retrospection. Uranium mining Wismut und the legal casualty insurance; Erinnerungen. Uranerzbergbau Wismut und die gesetzliche Unfallversicherung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breuer, Joachim [Deutsche Gesetzliche Unfallversicherung (DGUV), Berlin (Germany)

2015-07-01

Although the Wismut uranium mining company in the former DDR had 600.000 employees, the company was not mentioned in the contract on the German reunification. The expenses for the health consequences imposed manifold challenges to the legal casualty insurance. The question of responsibility, the conservation, digitalization and evaluation of data concerning the personnel and health information, partially handwritten is a tremendous amount of work.

Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

2009-01-01

Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

System dynamics modelling of situation awareness

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Oosthuizen, R

2015-11-01

Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...

[Mass maritime casualty incidents in German waters: structures and resources].

Science.gov (United States)

Castan, J; Paschen, H-R; Wirtz, S; Dörges, V; Wenderoth, S; Peters, J; Blunk, Y; Bielstein, A; Kerner, T

2012-07-01

The Central Command for Maritime Emergencies was founded in Germany in 2003 triggered by the fire on board of the cargo ship "Pallas" in 1998. Its mission is to coordinate and direct measures at or above state level in maritime emergency situations in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. A special task in this case is to provide firefighting and medical care. To face these challenges at sea emergency doctors and firemen have been specially trained. This form of organization provides a concept to counter mass casualty incidents and peril situations at sea. Since the foundation of the Central Command for Maritime Emergencies there have been 5 operations for firefighting units and 4 for medical response teams. Assignments and structure of the Central Command for Maritime Emergencies are unique in Europe.

GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Klimešová, Dana

2006-01-01

Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

A dynamical model of terrorism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Firdaus Udwadia

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a dynamical model of terrorism. We consider the population in a given region as being made up of three primary components: terrorists, those susceptible to both terrorist and pacifist propaganda, and nonsusceptibles, or pacifists. The dynamical behavior of these three populations is studied using a model that incorporates the effects of both direct military/police intervention to reduce the terrorist population, and nonviolent, persuasive intervention to influence the susceptibles to become pacifists. The paper proposes a new paradigm for studying terrorism, and looks at the long-term dynamical evolution in time of these three population components when such interventions are carried out. Many important features—some intuitive, others not nearly so—of the nature of terrorism emerge from the dynamical model proposed, and they lead to several important policy implications for the management of terrorism. The different circumstances in which nonviolent intervention and/or military/police intervention may be beneficial, and the specific conditions under which each mode of intervention, or a combination of both, may be useful, are obtained. The novelty of the model presented herein is that it deals with the time evolution of terrorist activity. It appears to be one of the few models that can be tested, evaluated, and improved upon, through the use of actual field data.

A Lagrangian dynamic subgrid-scale model turbulence

Science.gov (United States)

Meneveau, C.; Lund, T. S.; Cabot, W.

1994-01-01

A new formulation of the dynamic subgrid-scale model is tested in which the error associated with the Germano identity is minimized over flow pathlines rather than over directions of statistical homogeneity. This procedure allows the application of the dynamic model with averaging to flows in complex geometries that do not possess homogeneous directions. The characteristic Lagrangian time scale over which the averaging is performed is chosen such that the model is purely dissipative, guaranteeing numerical stability when coupled with the Smagorinsky model. The formulation is tested successfully in forced and decaying isotropic turbulence and in fully developed and transitional channel flow. In homogeneous flows, the results are similar to those of the volume-averaged dynamic model, while in channel flow, the predictions are superior to those of the plane-averaged dynamic model. The relationship between the averaged terms in the model and vortical structures (worms) that appear in the LES is investigated. Computational overhead is kept small (about 10 percent above the CPU requirements of the volume or plane-averaged dynamic model) by using an approximate scheme to advance the Lagrangian tracking through first-order Euler time integration and linear interpolation in space.

Modelling group dynamic animal movement

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Langrock, Roland; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Blackwell, Paul G.

2014-01-01

makes its movement decisions relative to the group centroid. The basic idea is framed within the flexible class of hidden Markov models, extending previous work on modelling animal movement by means of multi-state random walks. While in simulation experiments parameter estimators exhibit some bias......, to date, practical statistical methods which can include group dynamics in animal movement models have been lacking. We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual......Group dynamic movement is a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognised, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However...

Modelling forest dynamics along climate gradients in Bolivia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Quispe, J.; Añez, S.; Arora, V.K.; Melton, J.R.; Hickler, T.; Kabat, P.

2014-01-01

Dynamic vegetation models have been used to assess the resilience of tropical forests to climate change, but the global application of these modeling experiments often misrepresents carbon dynamics at a regional level, limiting the validity of future projections. Here a dynamic vegetation model

Dynamic panel data models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bun, M.J.G.; Sarafidis, V.

2013-01-01

This Chapter reviews the recent literature on dynamic panel data models with a short time span and a large cross-section. Throughout the discussion we considerlinear models with additional endogenous covariates. First we give a broad overview of available inference methods placing emphasis on GMM.

Simple Models for the Dynamic Modeling of Rotating Tires

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.C. Delamotte

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Large Finite Element (FE models of tires are currently used to predict low frequency behavior and to obtain dynamic model coefficients used in multi-body models for riding and comfort. However, to predict higher frequency behavior, which may explain irregular wear, critical rotating speeds and noise radiation, FE models are not practical. Detailed FE models are not adequate for optimization and uncertainty predictions either, as in such applications the dynamic solution must be computed a number of times. Therefore, there is a need for simpler models that can capture the physics of the tire and be used to compute the dynamic response with a low computational cost. In this paper, the spectral (or continuous element approach is used to derive such a model. A circular beam spectral element that takes into account the string effect is derived, and a method to simulate the response to a rotating force is implemented in the frequency domain. The behavior of a circular ring under different internal pressures is investigated using modal and frequency/wavenumber representations. Experimental results obtained with a real untreaded truck tire are presented and qualitatively compared with the simple model predictions with good agreement. No attempt is made to obtain equivalent parameters for the simple model from the real tire results. On the other hand, the simple model fails to represent the correct variation of the quotient of the natural frequency by the number of circumferential wavelengths with the mode count. Nevertheless, some important features of the real tire dynamic behavior, such as the generation of standing waves and part of the frequency/wavenumber behavior, can be investigated using the proposed simplified model.

Radiation protection - Performance criteria for laboratories performing cytogenetic triage for assessment of mass casualties in radiological or nuclear emergencies - General principles and application to dicentric assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

The potential for nuclear and radiological emergencies involving mass casualties from accidental or malicious acts or terrorism requires generic procedures for emergency dose assessment to help the development of medical response capabilities. A mass-casualties incident is defined here as an event that exceeds the local medical resources. Biological dosimetry, based on cytogenetic analysis using the dicentric assay, typically applied for accidental dose assessment, has been defined in ISO 19238. Cytogenetic triage is the use of chromosome damage to evaluate and assess approximately and rapidly radiation doses received by individuals in order to supplement the clinical categorization of casualties. This International Standard focuses on the use of the dicentric assay for rapid cytogenetic triage involving mass-casualty incidents. The primary purpose of this International Standard is to provide a guideline to all laboratories in order to perform the dicentric-bioassay - cytogenetic triage for dose assessment using documented and validated procedures. Secondly, it can facilitate the application of cytogenetic biodosimetry networks to permit comparison of results obtained in different laboratories. Finally, it is expected that laboratories newly commissioned to carry out the cytogenetic triage conform to this International Standard in order to perform the triage reproducibly and accurately. This International Standard is written in the form of procedures to adopt for dicentric-bioassay - cytogenetic triage biological dosimetry for overexposures involving mass radiological casualties. The criteria required for such measurements usually depend on the application of the results: medical management when appropriate, radiation-protection management, record keeping and medical/legal requirements. For example, selected cases can be analysed to produce a more accurate evaluation of high partial-body exposure; secondly, doses can be estimated for persons exposed below the

Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Artawan, I. Nengah, E-mail: nengahartawan@gmail.com [Theoretical Physics Division, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia); Trisnawati, N. L. P., E-mail: nlptrisnawati@gmail.com [Biophysics, Department of Physics, Udayana University (Indonesia)

2016-03-11

Opinion dynamics model based on quantum formalism is proposed. The core of the quantum formalism is on the half spin dynamics system. In this research the implicit time evolution operators are derived. The analogy between the model with Deffuant dan Sznajd models is discussed.

Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

2014-01-01

We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Final Report: Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Suction Devices for Management of Prehospital Combat Casualty Care Injuries

Science.gov (United States)

2017-11-13

Airway Final Report: Summary of Findings and Recommendations for Suction Devices for Management of Prehospital Combat Casualty Care Injuries...Consumer Style Comparison Table of Suction Pump Devices ............................. 103 Appendix H – Web Links for Images for Consumer- Style ...0022 pg. 6 Executive Summary Suction is a critical component of airway management , which is the second leading cause of preventable

Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

Science.gov (United States)

Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

2017-09-16

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

A probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashes.

Science.gov (United States)

Meng, Qiang; Weng, Jinxian; Qu, Xiaobo

2010-11-01

Work zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events--age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S)--in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.

2009-01-01

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.

2009-04-01

In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.

Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models

CERN Document Server

Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael

2016-01-01

This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.

Hydration dynamics near a model protein surface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russo, Daniela; Hura, Greg; Head-Gordon, Teresa

2003-01-01

The evolution of water dynamics from dilute to very high concentration solutions of a prototypical hydrophobic amino acid with its polar backbone, N-acetyl-leucine-methylamide (NALMA), is studied by quasi-elastic neutron scattering and molecular dynamics simulation for both the completely deuterated and completely hydrogenated leucine monomer. We observe several unexpected features in the dynamics of these biological solutions under ambient conditions. The NALMA dynamics shows evidence of de Gennes narrowing, an indication of coherent long timescale structural relaxation dynamics. The translational water dynamics are analyzed in a first approximation with a jump diffusion model. At the highest solute concentrations, the hydration water dynamics is significantly suppressed and characterized by a long residential time and a slow diffusion coefficient. The analysis of the more dilute concentration solutions takes into account the results of the 2.0M solution as a model of the first hydration shell. Subtracting the first hydration layer based on the 2.0M spectra, the translational diffusion dynamics is still suppressed, although the rotational relaxation time and residential time are converged to bulk-water values. Molecular dynamics analysis shows spatially heterogeneous dynamics at high concentration that becomes homogeneous at more dilute concentrations. We discuss the hydration dynamics results of this model protein system in the context of glassy systems, protein function, and protein-protein interfaces

Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. I. Theory and Markov models.

Science.gov (United States)

Lindner, Benjamin; Yi, Zheng; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Smith, Jeremy C; Noé, Frank

2013-11-07

The dynamics of complex molecules can be directly probed by inelastic neutron scattering experiments. However, many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales, which makes it difficult to assign processes seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements. Here, we show how Markov models can be used to connect structural changes observed in molecular dynamics simulation directly to the relaxation processes probed by scattering experiments. For this, a conformational dynamics theory of dynamical neutron and X-ray scattering is developed, following our previous approach for computing dynamical fingerprints of time-correlation functions [F. Noé, S. Doose, I. Daidone, M. Löllmann, J. Chodera, M. Sauer, and J. Smith, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 4822 (2011)]. Markov modeling is used to approximate the relaxation processes and timescales of the molecule via the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a transition matrix between conformational substates. This procedure allows the establishment of a complete set of exponential decay functions and a full decomposition into the individual contributions, i.e., the contribution of every atom and dynamical process to each experimental relaxation process.

Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.

2006-01-01

We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)

Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Anung Basuki

2010-08-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome†

OpenAIRE

Estes, Anne M.

2015-01-01

“Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1) niche availability and habitat space and 2) a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determi...

An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.

2017-01-01

By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231

System dynamics and control with bond graph modeling

CERN Document Server

Kypuros, Javier

2013-01-01

Part I Dynamic System ModelingIntroduction to System DynamicsIntroductionSystem Decomposition and Model ComplexityMathematical Modeling of Dynamic SystemsAnalysis and Design of Dynamic SystemsControl of Dynamic SystemsDiagrams of Dynamic SystemsA Graph-Centered Approach to ModelingSummaryPracticeExercisesBasic Bond Graph ElementsIntroductionPower and Energy VariablesBasic 1-Port ElementsBasic 2-Ports ElementsJunction ElementsSimple Bond Graph ExamplesSummaryPracticeExercisesBond Graph Synthesis and Equation DerivationIntroductionGeneral GuidelinesMechanical TranslationMechanical RotationElectrical CircuitsHydraulic CircuitsMixed SystemsState Equation DerivationState-Space RepresentationsAlgebraic Loops and Derivative CausalitySummaryPracticeExercisesImpedance Bond GraphsIntroductionLaplace Transform of the State-Space EquationBasic 1-Port ImpedancesImpedance Bond Graph SynthesisJunctions, Transformers, and GyratorsEffort and Flow DividersSign ChangesTransfer Function DerivationAlternative Derivation of Transf...

Evaluation of absorbent materials for use as ad hoc dry decontaminants during mass casualty incidents as part of the UK's Initial Operational Response (IOR.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nick Kassouf

Full Text Available The UK's Initial Operational Response (IOR is a revised process for the medical management of mass casualties potentially contaminated with hazardous materials. A critical element of the IOR is the introduction of immediate, on-scene disrobing and decontamination of casualties to limit the adverse health effects of exposure. Ad hoc cleansing of the skin with dry absorbent materials has previously been identified as a potential means of facilitating emergency decontamination. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the in vitro oil and water absorbency of a range of materials commonly found in the domestic and clinical environments and to determine the effectiveness of a small, but representative selection of such materials in skin decontamination, using an established ex vivo model. Five contaminants were used in the study: methyl salicylate, parathion, diethyl malonate, phorate and potassium cyanide. In vitro measurements of water and oil absorbency did not correlate with ex vivo measurements of skin decontamination. When measured ex vivo, dry decontamination was consistently more effective than a standard wet decontamination method ("rinse-wipe-rinse" for removing liquid contaminants. However, dry decontamination was ineffective against particulate contamination. Collectively, these data confirm that absorbent materials such as wound dressings and tissue paper provide an effective, generic capability for emergency removal of liquid contaminants from the skin surface, but that wet decontamination should be used for non-liquid contaminants.

A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-01

Sustainment System Dynamics Model 11 Figure 7: Core Structure of Sustainment Work 12 Figure 8: Bandwagon Effect Loop 13 Figure 9: Limits to Growth Loop 14...Dynamics Model sustainment capacity sustainment performance gap Bandwagon Effect R1 Limits to Growth B1 S Work Smarter B3 Work Bigger B2 desired...which is of concern primarily when using the model as a vehicle for research. Figure 8 depicts a reinforcing loop called the “ Bandwagon Effect

Dynamic skin deformation simulation using musculoskeletal model and soft tissue dynamics

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Akihiko Murai; Q. Youn Hong; Katsu Yamane; Jessica K. Hodgins

2017-01-01

Deformation of skin and muscle is essential for bringing an animated character to life. This deformation is difficult to animate in a realistic fashion using traditional techniques because of the subtlety of the skin deformations that must move appropriately for the character design. In this paper, we present an algorithm that generates natural, dynamic, and detailed skin deformation (movement and jiggle) from joint angle data sequences. The algorithm has two steps: identification of parameters for a quasi-static muscle deformation model, and simulation of skin deformation. In the identification step, we identify the model parameters using a musculoskeletal model and a short sequence of skin deformation data captured via a dense marker set. The simulation step first uses the quasi-static muscle deformation model to obtain the quasi-static muscle shape at each frame of the given motion sequence (slow jump). Dynamic skin deformation is then computed by simulating the passive muscle and soft tissue dynamics modeled as a mass–spring–damper system. Having obtained the model parameters, we can simulate dynamic skin deformations for subjects with similar body types from new motion data. We demonstrate our method by creating skin deformations for muscle co-contraction and external impacts from four different behaviors captured as skeletal motion capture data. Experimental results show that the simulated skin deformations are quantitatively and qualitatively similar to measured actual skin deformations.

Dynamic skin deformation simulation using musculoskeletal model and soft tissue dynamics

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Akihiko Murai; Q.Youn Hong; Katsu Yamane; Jessica K.Hodgins

2017-01-01

Deformation of skin and muscle is essential for bringing an animated character to life. This deformation is difficult to animate in a realistic fashion using traditional techniques because of the subtlety of the skin deformations that must move appropriately for the character design. In this paper, we present an algorithm that generates natural, dynamic, and detailed skin deformation(movement and jiggle) from joint angle data sequences. The algorithm has two steps: identification of parameters for a quasi-static muscle deformation model, and simulation of skin deformation. In the identification step, we identify the model parameters using a musculoskeletal model and a short sequence of skin deformation data captured via a dense marker set. The simulation step first uses the quasi-static muscle deformation model to obtain the quasi-static muscle shape at each frame of the given motion sequence(slow jump). Dynamic skin deformation is then computed by simulating the passive muscle and soft tissue dynamics modeled as a mass–spring–damper system. Having obtained the model parameters, we can simulate dynamic skin deformations for subjects with similar body types from new motion data. We demonstrate our method by creating skin deformations for muscle co-contraction and external impacts from four different behaviors captured as skeletal motion capture data. Experimental results show that the simulated skin deformations are quantitatively and qualitatively similar to measured actual skin deformations.

High-energy outer radiation belt dynamic modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiu, Y.T.; Nightingale, R.W.; Rinaldi, M.A.

1989-01-01

Specification of the average high-energy radiation belt environment in terms of phenomenological montages of satellite measurements has been available for some time. However, for many reasons both scientific and applicational (including concerns for a better understanding of the high-energy radiatino background in space), it is desirable to model the dynamic response of the high-energy radiation belts to sources, to losses, and to geomagnetic activity. Indeed, in the outer electron belt, this is the only mode of modeling that can handle the large intensity fluctuations. Anticipating the dynamic modeling objective of the upcoming Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) program, we have undertaken to initiate the study of the various essential elements in constructing a dynamic radiation belt model based on interpretation of satellite data according to simultaneous radial and pitch-angle diffusion theory. In order to prepare for the dynamic radiation belt modeling based on a large data set spanning a relatively large segment of L-values, such as required for CRRES, it is important to study a number of test cases with data of similar characteristics but more restricted in space-time coverage. In this way, models of increasing comprehensiveness can be built up from the experience of elucidating the dynamics of more restrictive data sets. The principal objectives of this paper are to discuss issues concerning dynamic modeling in general and to summarize in particular the good results of an initial attempt at constructing the dynamics of the outer electron radiation belt based on a moderately active data period from Lockheed's SC-3 instrument flown on board the SCATHA (P78-2) spacecraft. Further, we shall discuss the issues brought out and lessons learned in this test case

Modelling, simulation and applications of longitudinal train dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Wu, Qing; Sun, Yan Quan

2017-10-01

Significant developments in longitudinal train simulation and an overview of the approaches to train models and modelling vehicle force inputs are firstly presented. The most important modelling task, that of the wagon connection, consisting of energy absorption devices such as draft gears and buffers, draw gear stiffness, coupler slack and structural stiffness is then presented. Detailed attention is given to the modelling approaches for friction wedge damped and polymer draft gears. A significant issue in longitudinal train dynamics is the modelling and calculation of the input forces - the co-dimensional problem. The need to push traction performances higher has led to research and improvement in the accuracy of traction modelling which is discussed. A co-simulation method that combines longitudinal train simulation, locomotive traction control and locomotive vehicle dynamics is presented. The modelling of other forces, braking propulsion resistance, curve drag and grade forces are also discussed. As extensions to conventional longitudinal train dynamics, lateral forces and coupler impacts are examined in regards to interaction with wagon lateral and vertical dynamics. Various applications of longitudinal train dynamics are then presented. As an alternative to the tradition single wagon mass approach to longitudinal train dynamics, an example incorporating fully detailed wagon dynamics is presented for a crash analysis problem. Further applications of starting traction, air braking, distributed power, energy analysis and tippler operation are also presented.

System Dynamics Modeling for Supply Chain Information Sharing

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Yang

In this paper, we try to use the method of system dynamics to model supply chain information sharing. Firstly, we determine the model boundaries, establish system dynamics model of supply chain before information sharing, analyze the model's simulation results under different changed parameters and suggest improvement proposal. Then, we establish system dynamics model of supply chain information sharing and make comparison and analysis on the two model's simulation results, to show the importance of information sharing in supply chain management. We wish that all these simulations would provide scientific supports for enterprise decision-making.

The FFA dynamic stall model. The Beddoes-Leishman dynamic stall model modified for lead-lag oscillations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjoerck, A. [FFA, The Aeronautical Research Institute of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden)

1997-08-01

For calculations of the dynamics of wind turbines the inclusion of a dynamic stall model is necessary in order to obtain reliable results at high winds. For blade vibrations in the lead-lag motion the velocity relative to the blade will vary in time. In the present paper modifications to the Beddoes-Leishman model is presented in order to improve the model for calculations of cases with a varying relative velocity. Comparisons with measurement are also shown and the influence on the calculated aerodynamic damping by the modifications are investigated. (au)

Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model

Science.gov (United States)

David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.

2013-10-01

In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.

Modeling Dynamic Regulatory Processes in Stroke

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, Jason E.; Jarman, Kenneth; Taylor, Ronald; Lancaster, Mary; Shankaran, Harish; Vartanian, Keri B.; Stevens, Susan L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P.; Sanfilippo, Antonio

2012-01-01

The ability to examine the behavior of biological systems in silico has the potential to greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in diseases, such as stroke, where in vivo analysis is time intensive and costly. In this paper we describe an approach for in silico examination of responses of the blood transcriptome to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from the data relating these functional clusters to each other in terms of their regulatory influence on one another. Dynamic models were developed by coupling these ODEs into a model that simulates the expression of regulated functional clusters. By changing the magnitude of gene expression in the initial input state it was possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions since the dynamic model only requires an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. We discuss the implications of our models on neuroprotection in stroke, explore the limitations of the approach, and report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different neuroprotective paradigms. PMID:23071432

Dynamic models in research and management of biological invasions.

Science.gov (United States)

Buchadas, Ana; Vaz, Ana Sofia; Honrado, João P; Alagador, Diogo; Bastos, Rita; Cabral, João A; Santos, Mário; Vicente, Joana R

2017-07-01

Invasive species are increasing in number, extent and impact worldwide. Effective invasion management has thus become a core socio-ecological challenge. To tackle this challenge, integrating spatial-temporal dynamics of invasion processes with modelling approaches is a promising approach. The inclusion of dynamic processes in such modelling frameworks (i.e. dynamic or hybrid models, here defined as models that integrate both dynamic and static approaches) adds an explicit temporal dimension to the study and management of invasions, enabling the prediction of invasions and optimisation of multi-scale management and governance. However, the extent to which dynamic approaches have been used for that purpose is under-investigated. Based on a literature review, we examined the extent to which dynamic modelling has been used to address invasions worldwide. We then evaluated how the use of dynamic modelling has evolved through time in the scope of invasive species management. The results suggest that modelling, in particular dynamic modelling, has been increasingly applied to biological invasions, especially to support management decisions at local scales. Also, the combination of dynamic and static modelling approaches (hybrid models with a spatially explicit output) can be especially effective, not only to support management at early invasion stages (from prevention to early detection), but also to improve the monitoring of invasion processes and impact assessment. Further development and testing of such hybrid models may well be regarded as a priority for future research aiming to improve the management of invasions across scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical dynamic modeling of fast trilayer polypyrrole bending actuators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amiri Moghadam, Amir Ali; Moavenian, Majid; Tahani, Masoud; Torabi, Keivan

2011-01-01

Analytical modeling of conjugated polymer actuators with complicated electro-chemo-mechanical dynamics is an interesting area for research, due to the wide range of applications including biomimetic robots and biomedical devices. Although there have been extensive reports on modeling the electrochemical dynamics of polypyrrole (PPy) bending actuators, mechanical dynamics modeling of the actuators remains unexplored. PPy actuators can operate with low voltage while producing large displacement in comparison to robotic joints, they do not have friction or backlash, but they suffer from some disadvantages such as creep and hysteresis. In this paper, a complete analytical dynamic model for fast trilayer polypyrrole bending actuators has been proposed and named the analytical multi-domain dynamic actuator (AMDDA) model. First an electrical admittance model of the actuator will be obtained based on a distributed RC line; subsequently a proper mechanical dynamic model will be derived, based on Hamilton's principle. The purposed modeling approach will be validated based on recently published experimental results

Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

2009-01-01

Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

2009-01-15

Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

OpenAIRE

Weber, Michael

2004-01-01

The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikola Simidjievski

Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

Models with Men and Women: Representing Gender in Dynamic Modeling of Social Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Erika; Wilson, Benedicte

2018-04-01

Dynamic engineering models have yet to be evaluated in the context of feminist engineering ethics. Decision-making concerning gender in dynamic modeling design is a gender and ethical issue that is important to address regardless of the system in which the dynamic modeling is applied. There are many dynamic modeling tools that operationally include the female population, however, there is an important distinction between females and women; it is the difference between biological sex and the social construct of gender, which is fluid and changes over time and geography. The ethical oversight in failing to represent or misrepresenting gender in model design when it is relevant to the model purpose can have implications for model validity and policy model development. This paper highlights this gender issue in the context of feminist engineering ethics using a dynamic population model. Women are often represented in this type of model only in their biological capacity, while lacking their gender identity. This illustrative example also highlights how language, including the naming of variables and communication with decision-makers, plays a role in this gender issue.

Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, Bryan

Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.

Mass casualty incidents: are NHS staff prepared? An audit of one NHS foundation trust.

Science.gov (United States)

Milkhu, C S; Howell, D C J; Glynne, P A; Raptis, D; Booth, H L; Langmead, L; Datta, V K

2008-09-01

Lack of knowledge of an NHS trust's major incident policies by clinical staff may result in poorly coordinated responses during a mass casualty incident (MCI). To audit knowledge of the major incident policy by clinical staff working in a central London major acute NHS trust designated to receive casualties on a 24-h basis during a MCI. A 12-question proforma was distributed to 307 nursing and medical staff in the hospital, designed to assess their knowledge of the major incident policy. Completed proformas were collected over a 2-month period between December 2006 and February 2007. A reply rate of 34% was obtained, with a reasonable representation from all disciplines ranging from nurses to consultants. Despite only 41% having read the policy in full, 70% knew the correct immediate action to take if informed of major incident activation. 76% knew the correct stand-down procedure. 56% knew the correct reporting point but less than 25% knew that an action card system was utilised. Nurses had significantly (p<0.01) more awareness of the policy than doctors. In view of the heightened terrorist threat in London, knowledge of major incident policy is essential. The high percentage of positive responses relating to immediate and stand-down actions reflects the rolling trust-wide MCI education programme and the organisational memory of the trust following several previous MCI in the capital. There is still scope for an improvement in awareness, however, particularly concerning knowledge of action cards, which are now displayed routinely throughout clinical areas and will be incorporated into induction packs.

Urban eco-efficiency and system dynamics modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hradil, P., Email: petr.hradil@vtt.fi

2012-06-15

Assessment of urban development is generally based on static models of economic, social or environmental impacts. More advanced dynamic models have been used mostly for prediction of population and employment changes as well as for other macro-economic issues. This feasibility study was arranged to test the potential of system dynamic modelling in assessing eco-efficiency changes during urban development. (orig.)

The casualty chain inventory: a new scale for measuring peritraumatic responses: a cross-sectional study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandvik Leiv

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Peritraumatic psychological- and sensory impressions in victims of civilian accidents are only partly understood. This study scrutinizes the level and duration of perceived psychological threat at scene of injury as well as in hospital (the casualty chain measured by the Casualty Chain Inventory (CCI. The purpose of the study was to assess and validate the CCI, and to examine the correlations between the new instrument and stress responses measured by the Impact of Event Scale (IES and the Post-traumatic Stress Scale-10 (PTSS-10 Methods Three hundred and fifteen injured, conscious, hospitalised patients were assessed with a self-report questionnaire. The CCI consists of eight items including sensory impressions and well-known psychological responses to trauma. Results The internal consistency of the CCI was solid (Cronbach's alpha: .83-.85. A factor analysis revealed two components, "perception" and "dissociation". The instrument correlates significantly with the Impact of Event Scale (r = 0.47 - 0.54 and the Posttraumatic Stress Scale-10 (r = 0.32 - 0.50. The explained variance is high both at the scene of injury (61% and in the hospital (65%. Dissociation and perception either used as a two-factor solution or as a sum score measured in the hospital, gave the strongest prediction for later psychological distress. Conclusions The CCI appears to be a useful screening instrument for, at an early state, identifying patients hospitalized after a physical incident at risk for subsequent psychological distress.

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-08-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

Complex networks under dynamic repair model

Science.gov (United States)

Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

2018-01-01

Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edson Crescitelli

2009-04-01

Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

Dynamic hysteretic sensing model of bending-mode Galfenol transducer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cao, Shuying; Zheng, Jiaju; Sang, Jie; Zhang, Pengfei; Wang, Bowen; Huang, Wenmei

2015-01-01

A dynamic hysteretic sensing model has been developed to predict the dynamic responses of the magnetic induction, the stress, and the output voltage for a bending-mode Galfenol unimorph transducer subjected simultaneously to acceleration and bias magnetic field. This model is obtained by coupling the hysteretic Armstrong model and the structural dynamic model of the Galfenol unimorph beam. The structural dynamic model of the beam is founded based on the Euler-Bernouli beam theory, the nonlinear constitutive equations, and the Faraday law of electromagnetic induction. Comparisons between the calculated and measured results show the model can describe dynamic nonlinear voltage characteristics of the device, and can predict hysteretic behaviors between the magnetic induction and the stress. Moreover, the model can effectively analyze the effects of the bias magnetic field, the acceleration amplitude, and frequency on the root mean square voltage of the device

Dynamic hysteretic sensing model of bending-mode Galfenol transducer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cao, Shuying, E-mail: shuying-cao@hebut.edu.cn; Zheng, Jiaju; Sang, Jie; Zhang, Pengfei; Wang, Bowen; Huang, Wenmei [Province-Ministry Joint Key Laboratory of Electromagnetic Field and Electrical Apparatus Reliability, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin 300130 (China)

2015-05-07

A dynamic hysteretic sensing model has been developed to predict the dynamic responses of the magnetic induction, the stress, and the output voltage for a bending-mode Galfenol unimorph transducer subjected simultaneously to acceleration and bias magnetic field. This model is obtained by coupling the hysteretic Armstrong model and the structural dynamic model of the Galfenol unimorph beam. The structural dynamic model of the beam is founded based on the Euler-Bernouli beam theory, the nonlinear constitutive equations, and the Faraday law of electromagnetic induction. Comparisons between the calculated and measured results show the model can describe dynamic nonlinear voltage characteristics of the device, and can predict hysteretic behaviors between the magnetic induction and the stress. Moreover, the model can effectively analyze the effects of the bias magnetic field, the acceleration amplitude, and frequency on the root mean square voltage of the device.

Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Advanced Life Support

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Harry

2002-01-01

To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.

Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Røge, Rasmus

2015-01-01

dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted...

Management of In-Field Patient Tracking and Triage by Using Near-Field Communication in Mass Casualty Incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Po-Liang; Su, Yung-Cheng; Hou, Chung-Hung; Chang, Po-Lun

2017-01-01

Near field communications (NFC) is an emerging technology that may potentialy assist with disaster management. A smartphone-based app was designed to help track patient flow in real time. A table-drill was held as a brief evaluation and it showed significant imporvement in both efficacy and accuracy of patient management. It is feasible to use NFC-embedded smartphones to clarify the ambiguous and chaotic patient flow in a mass casualty incident.

Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

W. and Fahlman, A. (2009). Could beaked whales get the bends?. Effect of diving behaviour and physiology on modelled gas exchange for three species...1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...to update a current gas dynamics model with recently acquired data for respiratory compliance (P-V), and body compartment size estimates in

CFTSIM-ITER dynamic fuel cycle model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busigin, A.; Gierszewski, P.

1998-01-01

Dynamic system models have been developed for specific tritium systems with considerable detail and for integrated fuel cycles with lesser detail (e.g. D. Holland, B. Merrill, Analysis of tritium migration and deposition in fusion reactor systems, Proceedings of the Ninth Symposium Eng. Problems of Fusion Research (1981); M.A. Abdou, E. Vold, C. Gung, M. Youssef, K. Shin, DT fuel self-sufficiency in fusion reactors, Fusion Technol. (1986); G. Spannagel, P. Gierszewski, Dynamic tritium inventory of a NET/ITER fuel cycle with lithium salt solution blanket, Fusion Eng. Des. (1991); W. Kuan, M.A. Abdou, R.S. Willms, Dynamic simulation of a proposed ITER tritium processing system, Fusion Technol. (1995)). In order to provide a tool to understand and optimize the behavior of the ITER fuel cycle, a dynamic fuel cycle model called CFTSIM is under development. The CFTSIM code incorporates more detailed ITER models, specifically for the important isotope separation system, and also has an easier-to-use graphical interface. This paper provides an overview of CFTSIM Version 1.0. The models included are those with significant and varying tritium inventories over a test campaign: fueling, plasma and first wall, pumping, fuel cleanup, isotope separation and storage. An illustration of the results is shown. (orig.)

Next Generation Carbon-Nitrogen Dynamics Model

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, C.; Fisher, R. A.; Vrugt, J. A.; Wullschleger, S. D.; McDowell, N. G.

2012-12-01

Nitrogen is a key regulator of vegetation dynamics, soil carbon release, and terrestrial carbon cycles. Thus, to assess energy impacts on the global carbon cycle and future climates, it is critical that we have a mechanism-based and data-calibrated nitrogen model that simulates nitrogen limitation upon both above and belowground carbon dynamics. In this study, we developed a next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model within the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). This next generation nitrogen-carbon dynamic model utilized 1) a mechanistic model of nitrogen limitation on photosynthesis with nitrogen trade-offs among light absorption, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage; 2) an optimal leaf nitrogen model that links soil nitrogen availability and leaf nitrogen content; and 3) an ecosystem demography (ED) model that simulates the growth and light competition of tree cohorts and is currently coupled to CLM. Our three test cases with changes in CO2 concentration, growing temperature and radiation demonstrate the model's ability to predict the impact of altered environmental conditions on nitrogen allocations. Currently, we are testing the model against different datasets including soil fertilization and Free Air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments across different forest types. We expect that our calibrated model will considerably improve our understanding and predictability of vegetation-climate interactions.itrogen allocation model evaluations. The figure shows the scatter plots of predicted and measured Vc,max and Jmax scaled to 25 oC (i.e.,Vc,max25 and Jmax25) at elevated CO2 (570 ppm, test case one), reduced radiation in canopy (0.1-0.9 of the radiation at the top of canopy, test case two) and reduced growing temperature (15oC, test case three). The model is first calibrated using control data under ambient CO2 (370 ppm), radiation at the top of the canopy (621 μmol photon/m2/s), the normal growing temperature (30oC). The fitted model

Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

2002-01-01

To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

2003-01-01

To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on

Indoor fire in a nursing home : evaluation of the medical response to a mass casualty incident based on a standardized protocol

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koning, S. W.; Ellerbroek, P. M.; Leenen, L. P. H.

This retrospective study reports the outcome of a mass casualty incident (MCI) caused by a fire in a nursing home. Data from the medical charts and registration system of the Major Incident Hospital (MIH) and ambulance service were analyzed. The evaluation reports from the MIH and an independent

Dynamical models of the Galaxy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

McMillan P.J.

2012-02-01

Full Text Available I discuss the importance of dynamical models for exploiting survey data, focusing on the advantages of “torus” models. I summarize a number of applications of these models to the study of the Milky Way, including the determination of the peculiar Solar velocity and investigation of the Hyades moving group.

Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Dabrowski, James M

2015-05-01

Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...

Model for macroevolutionary dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Maruvka, Yosef E; Shnerb, Nadav M; Kessler, David A; Ricklefs, Robert E

2013-07-02

The highly skewed distribution of species among genera, although challenging to macroevolutionists, provides an opportunity to understand the dynamics of diversification, including species formation, extinction, and morphological evolution. Early models were based on either the work by Yule [Yule GU (1925) Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 213:21-87], which neglects extinction, or a simple birth-death (speciation-extinction) process. Here, we extend the more recent development of a generic, neutral speciation-extinction (of species)-origination (of genera; SEO) model for macroevolutionary dynamics of taxon diversification. Simulations show that deviations from the homogeneity assumptions in the model can be detected in species-per-genus distributions. The SEO model fits observed species-per-genus distributions well for class-to-kingdom-sized taxonomic groups. The model's predictions for the appearance times (the time of the first existing species) of the taxonomic groups also approximately match estimates based on molecular inference and fossil records. Unlike estimates based on analyses of phylogenetic reconstruction, fitted extinction rates for large clades are close to speciation rates, consistent with high rates of species turnover and the relatively slow change in diversity observed in the fossil record. Finally, the SEO model generally supports the consistency of generic boundaries based on morphological differences between species and provides a comparator for rates of lineage splitting and morphological evolution.

Modeling Nonstationary Emotion Dynamics in Dyads using a Time-Varying Vector-Autoregressive Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Bringmann, Laura F; Ferrer, Emilio; Hamaker, Ellen L; Borsboom, Denny; Tuerlinckx, Francis

2018-01-01

Emotion dynamics are likely to arise in an interpersonal context. Standard methods to study emotions in interpersonal interaction are limited because stationarity is assumed. This means that the dynamics, for example, time-lagged relations, are invariant across time periods. However, this is generally an unrealistic assumption. Whether caused by an external (e.g., divorce) or an internal (e.g., rumination) event, emotion dynamics are prone to change. The semi-parametric time-varying vector-autoregressive (TV-VAR) model is based on well-studied generalized additive models, implemented in the software R. The TV-VAR can explicitly model changes in temporal dependency without pre-existing knowledge about the nature of change. A simulation study is presented, showing that the TV-VAR model is superior to the standard time-invariant VAR model when the dynamics change over time. The TV-VAR model is applied to empirical data on daily feelings of positive affect (PA) from a single couple. Our analyses indicate reliable changes in the male's emotion dynamics over time, but not in the female's-which were not predicted by her own affect or that of her partner. This application illustrates the usefulness of using a TV-VAR model to detect changes in the dynamics in a system.

Physiologic Waveform Analysis for Early Detection of Hemorrhage during Transport and Higher Echelon Medical Care of Combat Casualties

Science.gov (United States)

2014-03-01

area under the curve (ROC AUC ) values. (ROC AUC values range from 0 and 1 and indicate the probability of correct detection/discrimination...training set of the human LBNP data. Values are receiver operating characteristic area under the curves (ROC AUCs ) comparing the relative SV change...detection of hemorrhage is crucial for managing combat casualties. However, mean arterial blood pressure (ABP) and other vital signs are late indicators of

Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal

2015-01-01

For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...

Dynamics in Higher Education Politics: A Theoretical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kauko, Jaakko

2013-01-01

This article presents a model for analysing dynamics in higher education politics (DHEP). Theoretically the model draws on the conceptual history of political contingency, agenda-setting theories and previous research on higher education dynamics. According to the model, socio-historical complexity can best be analysed along two dimensions: the…

Containing Terrorism: A Dynamic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giti Zahedzadeh

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The strategic interplay between counterterror measures and terror activity is complex. Herein, we propose a dynamic model to depict this interaction. The model generates stylized prognoses: (i under conditions of inefficient counterterror measures, terror groups enjoy longer period of activity but only if recruitment into terror groups remains low; high recruitment shortens the period of terror activity (ii highly efficient counterterror measures effectively contain terror activity, but only if recruitment remains low. Thus, highly efficient counterterror measures can effectively contain terrorism if recruitment remains restrained. We conclude that the trajectory of the dynamics between counterterror measures and terror activity is heavily altered by recruitment.

Model tests on dynamic performance of RC shear walls

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagashima, Toshio; Shibata, Akenori; Inoue, Norio; Muroi, Kazuo.

1991-01-01

For the inelastic dynamic response analysis of a reactor building subjected to earthquakes, it is essentially important to properly evaluate its restoring force characteristics under dynamic loading condition and its damping performance. Reinforced concrete shear walls are the main structural members of a reactor building, and dominate its seismic behavior. In order to obtain the basic information on the dynamic restoring force characteristics and damping performance of shear walls, the dynamic test using a large shaking table, static displacement control test and the pseudo-dynamic test on the models of a shear wall were conducted. In the dynamic test, four specimens were tested on a large shaking table. In the static test, four specimens were tested, and in the pseudo-dynamic test, three specimens were tested. These tests are outlined. The results of these tests were compared, placing emphasis on the restoring force characteristics and damping performance of the RC wall models. The strength was higher in the dynamic test models than in the static test models mainly due to the effect of loading rate. (K.I.)

A dynamic model of renal blood flow autoregulation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holstein-Rathlou, N H; Marsh, D J

1994-01-01

To test whether a mathematical model combining dynamic models of the tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) mechanism and the myogenic mechanism was sufficient to explain dynamic autoregulation of renal blood flow, we compared model simulations with experimental data. To assess the dynamic characteristics...... of renal autoregulation, a broad band perturbation of the arterial pressure was employed in both the simulations and the experiments. Renal blood flow and tubular pressure were used as response variables in the comparison. To better approximate the situation in vivo where a large number of individual...... data, which shows a unimodal curve for the admittance phase. The ability of the model to reproduce the experimental data supports the hypothesis that dynamic autoregulation of renal blood flow is due to the combined action of TGF and the myogenic response....

Emergency imaging after a mass casualty incident: role of the radiology department during training for and activation of a disaster management plan

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berger, Ferco H.; Körner, Markus; Bernstein, Mark P.; Sodickson, Aaron D.; Beenen, Ludo F.; McLaughlin, Patrick D.; Kool, Digna R.; Bilow, Ronald M.

2016-01-01

In the setting of mass casualty incidents (MCIs), hospitals need to divert from normal routine to delivering the best possible care to the largest number of victims. This should be accomplished by activating an established hospital disaster management plan (DMP) known to all staff through prior

A comparative study of depression, anxiety, stress and their relationships with smoking pattern in caregivers of patients of casualty and outpatient departments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Purushottam

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Smoking is prohibited in India at all the public places including hospital premises, but people with habit of smoking are not able to abide the rules strictly. Somehow, level of dependence and stress along with other psychological variables like anxiety and depression play key roles in smoking in the hospital premises. Methodology: Present study aimed to know the level of dependence and other psychological variables like depression, anxiety, and stress in the caregivers of patients of casualty and outpatients departments. Seventy five participants were recruited purposively from the hospital premises. The Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales (DASS- Hindi were administered. Result: Participants reported nicotine dependence was associated with psychological variables like mild to moderate level of depression, anxiety, and stress. Caregivers of casualty patients were having high level of stress than caregivers of outpatients. Conclusion: It can be concluded that psychological variables play a significant role in nicotine dependence.

A comprehensive dynamic modeling approach for giant magnetostrictive material actuators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gu, Guo-Ying; Zhu, Li-Min; Li, Zhi; Su, Chun-Yi

2013-01-01

In this paper, a comprehensive modeling approach for a giant magnetostrictive material actuator (GMMA) is proposed based on the description of nonlinear electromagnetic behavior, the magnetostrictive effect and frequency response of the mechanical dynamics. It maps the relationships between current and magnetic flux at the electromagnetic part to force and displacement at the mechanical part in a lumped parameter form. Towards this modeling approach, the nonlinear hysteresis effect of the GMMA appearing only in the electrical part is separated from the linear dynamic plant in the mechanical part. Thus, a two-module dynamic model is developed to completely characterize the hysteresis nonlinearity and the dynamic behaviors of the GMMA. The first module is a static hysteresis model to describe the hysteresis nonlinearity, and the cascaded second module is a linear dynamic plant to represent the dynamic behavior. To validate the proposed dynamic model, an experimental platform is established. Then, the linear dynamic part and the nonlinear hysteresis part of the proposed model are identified in sequence. For the linear part, an approach based on axiomatic design theory is adopted. For the nonlinear part, a Prandtl–Ishlinskii model is introduced to describe the hysteresis nonlinearity and a constrained quadratic optimization method is utilized to identify its coefficients. Finally, experimental tests are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed dynamic model and the corresponding identification method. (paper)

Dynamic Evolution Model Based on Social Network Services

Science.gov (United States)

Xiong, Xi; Gou, Zhi-Jian; Zhang, Shi-Bin; Zhao, Wen

2013-11-01

Based on the analysis of evolutionary characteristics of public opinion in social networking services (SNS), in the paper we propose a dynamic evolution model, in which opinions are coupled with topology. This model shows the clustering phenomenon of opinions in dynamic network evolution. The simulation results show that the model can fit the data from a social network site. The dynamic evolution of networks accelerates the opinion, separation and aggregation. The scale and the number of clusters are influenced by confidence limit and rewiring probability. Dynamic changes of the topology reduce the number of isolated nodes, while the increased confidence limit allows nodes to communicate more sufficiently. The two effects make the distribution of opinion more neutral. The dynamic evolution of networks generates central clusters with high connectivity and high betweenness, which make it difficult to control public opinions in SNS.

The Quadrotor Dynamic Modeling and Indoor Target Tracking Control Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dewei Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A reliable nonlinear dynamic model of the quadrotor is presented. The nonlinear dynamic model includes actuator dynamic and aerodynamic effect. Since the rotors run near a constant hovering speed, the dynamic model is simplified at hovering operating point. Based on the simplified nonlinear dynamic model, the PID controllers with feedback linearization and feedforward control are proposed using the backstepping method. These controllers are used to control both the attitude and position of the quadrotor. A fully custom quadrotor is developed to verify the correctness of the dynamic model and control algorithms. The attitude of the quadrotor is measured by inertia measurement unit (IMU. The position of the quadrotor in a GPS-denied environment, especially indoor environment, is estimated from the downward camera and ultrasonic sensor measurements. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed dynamic model and control algorithms are demonstrated by experimental results. It is shown that the vehicle achieves robust vision-based hovering and moving target tracking control.

Modeling emotional dynamics : currency versus field.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sallach, D .L.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago

2008-08-01

Randall Collins has introduced a simplified model of emotional dynamics in which emotional energy, heightened and focused by interaction rituals, serves as a common denominator for social exchange: a generic form of currency, except that it is active in a far broader range of social transactions. While the scope of this theory is attractive, the specifics of the model remain unconvincing. After a critical assessment of the currency theory of emotion, a field model of emotion is introduced that adds expressiveness by locating emotional valence within its cognitive context, thereby creating an integrated orientation field. The result is a model which claims less in the way of motivational specificity, but is more satisfactory in modeling the dynamic interaction between cognitive and emotional orientations at both individual and social levels.

Problems associated with the organization and planning of medical aid for radiation accident casualties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jammet, H.P.

1977-01-01

Problems associated with the organization and planning of medical treatment for radiation accident casualties are considered for different types of radiation accident: whole-body or partial irradiation, external or internal contamination and small or large numbers of cases. The problems posed are ones of competence, urgency and capacity; on the diagnostic side there is the problem of evaluating the exposure or contamination and assessing the resultant damage, while on the treatment side the questions of first aid, conventional treatment and specialized treatment have to be considered. The solutions envisaged involve organization at the local and national levels and planning of medical treatment by skilled, multidisciplinary medical teams. (author)

Direct modeling for computational fluid dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Kun

2015-06-01

All fluid dynamic equations are valid under their modeling scales, such as the particle mean free path and mean collision time scale of the Boltzmann equation and the hydrodynamic scale of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. The current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) focuses on the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), and its aim is to get the accurate solution of these governing equations. Under such a CFD practice, it is hard to develop a unified scheme that covers flow physics from kinetic to hydrodynamic scales continuously because there is no such governing equation which could make a smooth transition from the Boltzmann to the NS modeling. The study of fluid dynamics needs to go beyond the traditional numerical partial differential equations. The emerging engineering applications, such as air-vehicle design for near-space flight and flow and heat transfer in micro-devices, do require further expansion of the concept of gas dynamics to a larger domain of physical reality, rather than the traditional distinguishable governing equations. At the current stage, the non-equilibrium flow physics has not yet been well explored or clearly understood due to the lack of appropriate tools. Unfortunately, under the current numerical PDE approach, it is hard to develop such a meaningful tool due to the absence of valid PDEs. In order to construct multiscale and multiphysics simulation methods similar to the modeling process of constructing the Boltzmann or the NS governing equations, the development of a numerical algorithm should be based on the first principle of physical modeling. In this paper, instead of following the traditional numerical PDE path, we introduce direct modeling as a principle for CFD algorithm development. Since all computations are conducted in a discretized space with limited cell resolution, the flow physics to be modeled has to be done in the mesh size and time step scales. Here, the CFD is more or less a direct

On the dynamics of k-essence models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jorge, Pedro; Mimoso, Jose P; Wands, David

2007-01-01

We investigate cosmological dynamics of models with higher-order corrections to the canonical (second-order) kinetic lagrangian for a scalar field, which have been termed k -essence . We study the qualitative dynamics of simple purely kinetic k-essence models and find that the simplest attempts to construct non-singular cosmological models by including higher-order terms in the kinetic lagrangian fail because of a different type of singularity where the scalar field theory becomes ill-defined

Online Learning of Industrial Manipulators' Dynamics Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polydoros, Athanasios

2017-01-01

, it was compared with multiple other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the thesis presents the application of the proposed learning method on robot control for achieving trajectory execution while learning the inverse dynamics models  on-the-fly . Also it is presented the application...... of the dynamics models. Those mainly derive from physics-based methods and thus they are based on physical properties which are hard to be calculated.  In this thesis, is presented, a novel online machine learning approach  which is able to model both inverse and forward dynamics models of industrial manipulators....... The proposed method belongs to the class of deep learning and exploits the concepts of self-organization, recurrent neural networks and iterative multivariate Bayesian regression. It has been evaluated on multiple datasets captured from industrial robots while they were performing various tasks. Also...

Using Difference Equation to Model Discrete-time Behavior in System Dynamics Modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hesan, R.; Ghorbani, A.; Dignum, M.V.

2014-01-01

In system dynamics modeling, differential equations have been used as the basic mathematical operator. Using difference equation to build system dynamics models instead of differential equation, can be insightful for studying small organizations or systems with micro behavior. In this paper we

Dynamic model based on Bayesian method for energy security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Augutis, Juozas; Krikštolaitis, Ričardas; Pečiulytė, Sigita; Žutautaitė, Inga

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Methodology for dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators. • Application of dynamic indicator model for energy system development scenarios. • Expert judgement involvement using Bayesian method. - Abstract: The methodology for the dynamic indicator model construction and forecasting of indicators for the assessment of energy security level is presented in this article. An indicator is a special index, which provides numerical values to important factors for the investigated area. In real life, models of different processes take into account various factors that are time-dependent and dependent on each other. Thus, it is advisable to construct a dynamic model in order to describe these dependences. The energy security indicators are used as factors in the dynamic model. Usually, the values of indicators are obtained from statistical data. The developed dynamic model enables to forecast indicators’ variation taking into account changes in system configuration. The energy system development is usually based on a new object construction. Since the parameters of changes of the new system are not exactly known, information about their influences on indicators could not be involved in the model by deterministic methods. Thus, dynamic indicators’ model based on historical data is adjusted by probabilistic model with the influence of new factors on indicators using the Bayesian method

Modelling of dynamic equivalents in electric power grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craciun, Diana Iuliana

2010-01-01

In a first part, this research thesis proposes a description of the context and new constraints of electric grids: architecture, decentralized production with the impact of distributed energy resource systems, dynamic simulation, and interest of equivalent models. Then, the author discusses the modelling of the different components of electric grids: synchronous and asynchronous machines, distributed energy resource with power electronic interface, loading models. She addresses the techniques of reduction of electric grid models: conventional reduction methods, dynamic equivalence methods using non linear approaches or evolutionary algorithm-based methods of assessment of parameters. This last approach is then developed and implemented, and a new method of computation of dynamic equivalents is described

DYNAMIC LOAD DAMPER MODELING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Loktev Aleksey Alekseevich

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The authors present their findings associated with their modeling of a dynamic load damper. According to the authors, the damper is to be installed onto a structure or its element that may be exposed to impact, vibration or any other dynamic loading. The damper is composed of paralleled or consecutively connected viscous and elastic elements. The authors study the influence of viscosity and elasticity parameters of the damper produced onto the regular displacement of points of the structure to be protected and onto the regular acceleration transmitted immediately from the damper to the elements positioned below it.

Statistical aspects of the program of the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beebe, G W

1961-02-24

The Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission (ABCC) is a medical research institute in Hiroshima and Nagasaki devoted to long term study of the late effects of nuclear radiation upon man. The work draws its great interest from the paucity of existing information on the effect of radiation on man; from the unique radiation experience of the atomic bomb survivors; from the increasing utilization of nuclear energy in modern technology; and from humanitarian concern for the survivors of the bombs. The ABCC program provides the statistician with an important opportunity to apply the tools and concepts of statistics, for the inferences to be drawn are largely statistical inferences growing out of the comparison of samples defined as to radiation exposure. The work is of international as well as statistical interest by virtue of its subject matter and as a meeting-ground for statisticians trained in different countries.

Dynamic intersectoral models with power-law memory

Science.gov (United States)

Tarasova, Valentina V.; Tarasov, Vasily E.

2018-01-01

Intersectoral dynamic models with power-law memory are proposed. The equations of open and closed intersectoral models, in which the memory effects are described by the Caputo derivatives of non-integer orders, are derived. We suggest solutions of these equations, which have the form of linear combinations of the Mittag-Leffler functions and which are characterized by different effective growth rates. Examples of intersectoral dynamics with power-law memory are suggested for two sectoral cases. We formulate two principles of intersectoral dynamics with memory: the principle of changing of technological growth rates and the principle of domination change. It has been shown that in the input-output economic dynamics the effects of fading memory can change the economic growth rate and dominant behavior of economic sectors.

Dynamical properties of the Rabi model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Binglu; Zhou, Huili; Chen, Shujie; Xianlong, Gao; Wang, Kelin

2017-01-01

We study the dynamical properties of the quantum Rabi model using a systematic expansion method. Based on the observation that the parity symmetry of the Rabi model is kept during evolution of the states, we decompose the initial state and the time-dependent one into positive and negative parity parts expanded by superposition of the coherent states. The evolutions of the corresponding positive and the negative parities are obtained, in which the expansion coefficients in the dynamical equations are known from the derived recurrence relation. (paper)

Agent Based Modeling on Organizational Dynamics of Terrorist Network

OpenAIRE

Bo Li; Duoyong Sun; Renqi Zhu; Ze Li

2015-01-01

Modeling organizational dynamics of terrorist network is a critical issue in computational analysis of terrorism research. The first step for effective counterterrorism and strategic intervention is to investigate how the terrorists operate with the relational network and what affects the performance. In this paper, we investigate the organizational dynamics by employing a computational experimentation methodology. The hierarchical cellular network model and the organizational dynamics model ...

Guidelines for Mass Casualty Decontamination During a HAZMAT/Weapon of Mass Destruction Incident. Volumes 1 and 2 (Update)

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-01

sounds of high-pressure gas leaking and the creaking or popping of expanding and failing metal containers. As previous events have demonstrated, it...different triage categories, affix a commercially available triage tag to each casualty. They are perforated for easy ripping . The bottom-most color of...pupil dilation, and cloudy consciousness. The person may be unable to walk or move his/her arms and legs and may curl up into a fetal position

Particle hopping vs. fluid-dynamical models for traffic flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nagel, K.

1995-12-31

Although particle hopping models have been introduced into traffic science in the 19509, their systematic use has only started recently. Two reasons for this are, that they are advantageous on modem computers, and that recent theoretical developments allow analytical understanding of their properties and therefore more confidence for their use. In principle, particle hopping models fit between microscopic models for driving and fluiddynamical models for traffic flow. In this sense, they also help closing the conceptual gap between these two. This paper shows connections between particle hopping models and traffic flow theory. It shows that the hydrodynamical limits of certain particle hopping models correspond to the Lighthill-Whitham theory for traffic flow, and that only slightly more complex particle hopping models produce already the correct traffic jam dynamics, consistent with recent fluid-dynamical models for traffic flow. By doing so, this paper establishes that, on the macroscopic level, particle hopping models are at least as good as fluid-dynamical models. Yet, particle hopping models have at least two advantages over fluid-dynamical models: they straightforwardly allow microscopic simulations, and they include stochasticity.

Dynamic Modelling with "MLE-Energy Dynamic" for Primary School

Science.gov (United States)

Giliberti, Enrico; Corni, Federico

During the recent years simulation and modelling are growing instances in science education. In primary school, however, the main use of software is the simulation, due to the lack of modelling software tools specially designed to fit/accomplish the needs of primary education. In particular primary school teachers need to use simulation in a framework that is both consistent and simple enough to be understandable by children [2]. One of the possible area to approach modelling is about the construction of the concept of energy, in particular for what concerns the relations among substance, potential, power [3]. Following the previous initial research results with this approach [2], and with the static version of the software MLE Energy [1], we suggest the design and the experimentation of a dynamic modelling software—MLE dynamic-capable to represent dynamically the relations occurring when two substance-like quantities exchange energy, modifying their potential. By means of this software the user can graphically choose the dependent and independent variables and leave the other parameters fixed. The software has been initially evaluated, during a course of science education with a group of primary school teachers-to-be, to test the ability of the software to improve teachers' way of thinking in terms of substance-like quantities and their effects (graphical representation of the extensive, intensive variables and their mutual relations); moreover, the software has been tested with a group of primary school teachers, asking their opinion about the software didactical relevance in the class work.

Hybrid photovoltaic–thermal solar collectors dynamic modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amrizal, N.; Chemisana, D.; Rosell, J.I.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► A hybrid photovoltaic/thermal dynamic model is presented. ► The model, once calibrated, can predict the power output for any set of climate data. ► The physical electrical model includes explicitly thermal and irradiance dependences. ► The results agree with those obtained through steady-state characterization. ► The model approaches the junction cell temperature through the system energy balance. -- Abstract: A hybrid photovoltaic/thermal transient model has been developed and validated experimentally. The methodology extends the quasi-dynamic thermal model stated in the EN 12975 in order to involve the electrical performance and consider the dynamic behavior minimizing constraints when characterizing the collector. A backward moving average filtering procedure has been applied to improve the model response for variable working conditions. Concerning the electrical part, the model includes the thermal and radiation dependences in its variables. The results revealed that the characteristic parameters included in the model agree reasonably well with the experimental values obtained from the standard steady-state and IV characteristic curve measurements. After a calibration process, the model is a suitable tool to predict the thermal and electrical performance of a hybrid solar collector, for a specific weather data set.

System Dynamics Modeling of Multipurpose Reservoir Operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebrahim Momeni

2006-03-01

Full Text Available System dynamics, a feedback – based object – oriented simulation approach, not only represents complex dynamic systemic systems in a realistic way but also allows the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in modeling process. The increased speed of model development, the possibility of group model development, the effective communication of model results, and the trust developed in the model due to user participation are the main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling water management systems. In this study, a system dynamics model was developed for the Zayandehrud basin in central Iran. This model contains river basin, dam reservoir, plains, irrigation systems, and groundwater. Current operation rule is conjunctive use of ground and surface water. Allocation factor for each irrigation system is computed based on the feedback from groundwater storage in its zone. Deficit water is extracted from groundwater.The results show that applying better rules can not only satisfy all demands such as Gawkhuni swamp environmental demand, but it can also  prevent groundwater level drawdown in future.

Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

OpenAIRE

Langmead, Christopher James

2014-01-01

Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a...

Selecting a Dynamic Simulation Modeling Method for Health Care Delivery Research—Part 2: Report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marshall, Deborah A.; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; Crown, William; Padula, William V.; Wong, Peter K.; Pasupathy, Kalyan S.; Higashi, Mitchell K.; Osgood, Nathaniel D.

2015-01-01

In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on Dynamic Simulation Modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Leedale

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Waema Mbogo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.

Dynamic root uptake model for neutral lipophilic organics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trapp, Stefan

2002-01-01

and output to stem with the transpiration stream plus first-order metabolism and dilution by exponential growth. For chemicals with low or intermediate lipophilicity (log Kow , 2), there was no relevant difference between dynamic model and equilibrium approach. For lipophilic compounds, the dynamic model...

Transient dynamic and modeling parameter sensitivity analysis of 1D solid oxide fuel cell model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huangfu, Yigeng; Gao, Fei; Abbas-Turki, Abdeljalil; Bouquain, David; Miraoui, Abdellatif

2013-01-01

Highlights: • A multiphysics, 1D, dynamic SOFC model is developed. • The presented model is validated experimentally in eight different operating conditions. • Electrochemical and thermal dynamic transient time expressions are given in explicit forms. • Parameter sensitivity is discussed for different semi-empirical parameters in the model. - Abstract: In this paper, a multiphysics solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) dynamic model is developed by using a one dimensional (1D) modeling approach. The dynamic effects of double layer capacitance on the electrochemical domain and the dynamic effect of thermal capacity on thermal domain are thoroughly considered. The 1D approach allows the model to predict the non-uniform distributions of current density, gas pressure and temperature in SOFC during its operation. The developed model has been experimentally validated, under different conditions of temperature and gas pressure. Based on the proposed model, the explicit time constant expressions for different dynamic phenomena in SOFC have been given and discussed in detail. A parameters sensitivity study has also been performed and discussed by using statistical Multi Parameter Sensitivity Analysis (MPSA) method, in order to investigate the impact of parameters on the modeling accuracy

Developing a Dynamic Pharmacophore Model for HIV-1 Integrase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, Heather A.; Masukawa, Keven M.; Rubins, Kathleen; Bushman, Frederic; Jorgensen, William L.; Lins, Roberto; Briggs, James; Mccammon, Andy

2000-01-01

We present the first receptor-based pharmacophore model for HIV-1 integrase. The development of ''dynamic'' pharmacophore models is a new method that accounts for the inherent flexibility of the active site and aims to reduce the entropic penalties associated with binding a ligand. Furthermore, this new drug discovery method overcomes the limitation of an incomplete crystal structure of the target protein. A molecular dynamics (MD) simulation describes the flexibility of the uncomplexed protein. Many conformational models of the protein are saved from the MD simulations and used in a series of multi-unit search for interacting conformers (MUSIC) simulations. MUSIC is a multiple-copy minimization method, available in the BOSS program; it is used to determine binding regions for probe molecules containing functional groups that complement the active site. All protein conformations from the MD are overlaid, and conserved binding regions for the probe molecules are identified. Those conserved binding regions define the dynamic pharmacophore model. Here, the dynamic model is compared to known inhibitors of the integrase as well as a three-point, ligand-based pharmacophore model from the literature. Also, a ''static'' pharmacophore model was determined in the standard fashion, using a single crystal structure. Inhibitors thought to bind in the active site of HIV-1 integrase fit the dynamic model but not the static model. Finally, we have identified a set of compounds from the Available Chemicals Directory that fit the dynamic pharmacophore model, and experimental testing of the compounds has confirmed several new inhibitors

A ¤nonparametric dynamic additive regression model for longitudinal data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martinussen, T.; Scheike, T. H.

2000-01-01

dynamic linear models, estimating equations, least squares, longitudinal data, nonparametric methods, partly conditional mean models, time-varying-coefficient models......dynamic linear models, estimating equations, least squares, longitudinal data, nonparametric methods, partly conditional mean models, time-varying-coefficient models...

A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics

KAUST Repository

von Schwerin, Erik

2010-03-17

The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.

A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics

KAUST Repository

von Schwerin, Erik; Szepessy, Anders

2010-01-01

The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.

Further Results on Dynamic Additive Hazard Rate Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengcheng Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the past, the proportional and additive hazard rate models have been investigated in the works. Nanda and Das (2011 introduced and studied the dynamic proportional (reversed hazard rate model. In this paper we study the dynamic additive hazard rate model, and investigate its aging properties for different aging classes. The closure of the model under some stochastic orders has also been investigated. Some examples are also given to illustrate different aging properties and stochastic comparisons of the model.

The Internet's effect on personality traits: An important casualty of the "Internet addiction" paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Aboujaoude, Elias

2017-03-01

Background and aims The "Internet addiction" paradigm has been criticized for several shortcomings, including inattention to specific online behaviors, not distinguishing the Internet from other media, insufficient focus on comorbidities, and definitions that do not take into account the constant access now possible. The paradigm's biggest casualty, however, may be that it has diverted attention away from subtle personality changes that seem to occur online, including in users who cannot be considered "addicted" under any definition. Methods A narrative assessment of the literature was conducted, focusing on the Internet's effects on personality traits as revealed in studies of Internet users. Results Impulsivity, narcissism, and aggression are some of the personality traits that seem to be nurtured by the Internet, with possible negative offline consequences. Discussion Ignoring the Internet's subtle effects on personality as we embrace an addiction model that implies severe pathology makes the majority of Internet users feel deceptively immune to the psychological effects of new technologies. It also limits our understanding of the big cultural shifts that are happening as a result. Conclusion The Internet's potentially negative effect on personality, and by extension on society at large, is a fundamental part of online psychology, one well worthy of further investigation.

Quantum-like model of unconscious–conscious dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Khrennikov, Andrei

2015-01-01

We present a quantum-like model of sensation–perception dynamics (originated in Helmholtz theory of unconscious inference) based on the theory of quantum apparatuses and instruments. We illustrate our approach with the model of bistable perception of a particular ambiguous figure, the Schröder stair. This is a concrete model for unconscious and conscious processing of information and their interaction. The starting point of our quantum-like journey was the observation that perception dynamics is essentially contextual which implies impossibility of (straightforward) embedding of experimental statistical data in the classical (Kolmogorov, 1933) framework of probability theory. This motivates application of nonclassical probabilistic schemes. And the quantum formalism provides a variety of the well-approved and mathematically elegant probabilistic schemes to handle results of measurements. The theory of quantum apparatuses and instruments is the most general quantum scheme describing measurements and it is natural to explore it to model the sensation–perception dynamics. In particular, this theory provides the scheme of indirect quantum measurements which we apply to model unconscious inference leading to transition from sensations to perceptions. PMID:26283979

Dynamic programming models and applications

CERN Document Server

Denardo, Eric V

2003-01-01

Introduction to sequential decision processes covers use of dynamic programming in studying models of resource allocation, methods for approximating solutions of control problems in continuous time, production control, more. 1982 edition.

OISI dynamic end-to-end modeling tool

Science.gov (United States)

Kersten, Michael; Weidler, Alexander; Wilhelm, Rainer; Johann, Ulrich A.; Szerdahelyi, Laszlo

2000-07-01

The OISI Dynamic end-to-end modeling tool is tailored to end-to-end modeling and dynamic simulation of Earth- and space-based actively controlled optical instruments such as e.g. optical stellar interferometers. `End-to-end modeling' is meant to denote the feature that the overall model comprises besides optical sub-models also structural, sensor, actuator, controller and disturbance sub-models influencing the optical transmission, so that the system- level instrument performance due to disturbances and active optics can be simulated. This tool has been developed to support performance analysis and prediction as well as control loop design and fine-tuning for OISI, Germany's preparatory program for optical/infrared spaceborne interferometry initiated in 1994 by Dornier Satellitensysteme GmbH in Friedrichshafen.

Drones at the service for training on mass casualty incident

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandez-Pacheco, Antonio Nieto; Rodriguez, Laura Juguera; Price, Mariana Ferrandini; Perez, Ana Belen Garcia; Alonso, Nuria Perez; Rios, Manuel Pardo

2017-01-01

Abstract Mass casualty incidents (MCI) are characterized by a large number of victims with respect to the resources available. In this study, we aimed to analyze the changes produced in the self-perception of students who were able to visualize aerial views of a simulation of a MCI. A simulation study, mixed method, was performed to compare the results from an ad hoc questionnaire. The 35 students from the Emergency Nursing Master from the UCAM completed a questionnaire before and after watching an MCI video with 40 victims in which they had participated. The main variable measured was the change in self-perception (CSP). The CSP occurred in 80% (28/35) of the students (P = .001). Students improved their individual (P = .001) and group (P = .006) scores. They also described that their personal performance had better results than the group performance (P = .047). The main conclusion of this study is that drones could lead to CSP and appraisal of the MCI simulation participants. PMID:28658106

Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. II. Application using molecular dynamics simulation and Markov modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Yi, Zheng; Lindner, Benjamin; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank; Smith, Jeremy C

2013-11-07

Neutron scattering experiments directly probe the dynamics of complex molecules on the sub pico- to microsecond time scales. However, the assignment of the relaxations seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements is difficult, since many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales. In an accompanying article, we present a theoretical approach to the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations with a Markov State Model (MSM) that permits the direct identification of structural transitions leading to each contributing relaxation process. Here, we demonstrate the use of the method by applying it to the configurational dynamics of the well-characterized alanine dipeptide. A practical procedure for deriving the MSM from an MD is introduced. The result is a 9-state MSM in the space of the backbone dihedral angles and the side-chain methyl group. The agreement between the quasielastic spectrum calculated directly from the atomic trajectories and that derived from the Markov state model is excellent. The dependence on the wavevector of the individual Markov processes is described. The procedure means that it is now practicable to interpret quasielastic scattering spectra in terms of well-defined intramolecular transitions with minimal a priori assumptions as to the nature of the dynamics taking place.

Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan

2013-01-01

These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators

Dynamic modeling of the advanced neutron source reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

March-Leuba, J.; Ibn-Khayat, M.

1990-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary description and some applications of a computer model that has been developed to simulate the dynamic behavior of the advanced neutron source (ANS) reactor. The ANS dynamic model is coded in the advanced continuous simulation language (ACSL), and it represents the reactor core, vessel, primary cooling system, and secondary cooling systems. The use of a simple dynamic model in the early stages of the reactor design has proven very valuable not only in the development of the control and plant protection system but also of components such as pumps and heat exchangers that are usually sized based on steady-state calculations

How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

KAUST Repository

Elí as-Wolff, F.; Eriksson, Anders; Manica, A.; Mehlig, B.

2015-01-01

Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.

How Levins’ dynamics emerges from a Ricker metapopulation model

KAUST Repository

Elías-Wolff, F.

2015-09-24

Understanding the dynamics of metapopulations close to extinction is of vital importance for management. Levins-like models, in which local patches are treated as either occupied or empty, have been used extensively to explore the extinction dynamics of metapopulations, but they ignore the important role of local population dynamics. In this paper, we consider a stochastic metapopulation model where local populations follow a stochastic, density-dependent dynamics (the Ricker model), and use this framework to investigate the behaviour of the metapopulation on the brink of extinction. We determine under which circumstances the metapopulation follows a time evolution consistent with Levins’ dynamics. We derive analytical expressions for the colonisation and extinction rates (c and e) in Levins-type models in terms of reproduction, survival and dispersal parameters of the local populations, providing an avenue to parameterising Levins-like models from the type of information on local demography that is available for a number of species. To facilitate applying our results, we provide a numerical algorithm for computing c and e.

A guide for estimating dynamic panel models: the macroeconomics models specifiness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coletta, Gaetano

2005-10-01

The aim of this paper is to review estimators for dynamic panel data models, a topic in which the interest has grown recently. As a consequence 01 this late interest, different estimation techniques have been proposed in the last few years and, given the last development of the subject, there is still a lack 01 a comprehensive guide for panel data applications, and for macroeconomics panel data models in particular. Finally, we also provide some indications about the Stata software commands to estimate dynamic panel data models with the techniques illustrated in the paper [it

A distributed dynamic model of a monolith hydrogen membrane reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Michelsen, Finn Are; Wilhelmsen, Øivind; Zhao, Lei; Aasen, Knut Ingvar

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► We model a rigorous distributed dynamic model for a HMR unit. ► The model includes enough complexity for steady-state and dynamic analysis. ► Simulations show that the model is non-linear within the normal operating range. ► The model is useful for studying and handling disturbances such as inlet changes and membrane leakage. - Abstract: This paper describes a distributed mechanistic dynamic model of a hydrogen membrane reformer unit (HMR) used for methane steam reforming. The model is based on a square channel monolith structure concept, where air flows adjacent to a mix of natural gas and water distributed in a chess pattern of channels. Combustion of hydrogen gives energy to the endothermic steam reforming reactions. The model is used for both steady state and dynamic analyses. It therefore needs to be computationally attractive, but still include enough complexity to study the important steady state and dynamic features of the process. Steady-state analysis of the model gives optimum for the steam to carbon and steam to oxygen ratios, where the conversion of methane is 92% and the hydrogen used as energy for the endothermic reactions is 28% at the nominal optimum. The dynamic analysis shows that non-linear control schemes may be necessary for satisfactory control performance

Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

CERN Document Server

Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

2014-01-01

The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

Construction of dynamic model of CANDU-SCWR using moving boundary method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Peiwei; Jiang Jin; Shan Jianqiang

2011-01-01

Highlights: → A dynamic model of a CANDU-SCWR is developed. → The advantages of the moving boundary method are demonstrated. → The dynamic behaviours of the CANDU-SCWR are obtained by simulation. → The model can predict the dynamic behaviours of the CANDU-SCWR. → Linear dynamic models for CANDU-SCWR are derived by system identification techniques. - Abstract: CANDU-SCWR (Supercritical Water-Cooled Reactor) is one type of Generation IV reactors being developed in Canada. Its dynamic characteristics are different from existing CANDU reactors due to the supercritical conditions of the coolant. To study the behaviours of such reactors under disturbances and to design adequate control systems, it is essential to have an accurate dynamic model to describe such a reactor. One dynamic model is developed for CANDU-SCWR in this paper. In the model construction process, three regions have been considered: Liquid Region I, Liquid Region II and Vapour Region, depending on bulk and wall temperatures being higher or lower the pseudo-critical temperature. A moving boundary method is used to describe the movement of boundaries across these regions. Some benefits of adopting moving boundary method are illustrated by comparing with the fixed boundary method. The results of the steady-state simulation based on the developed model agree well with the design parameters. The transient simulations demonstrate that the model can predict the dynamic behaviours of CANDU-SCWR. Furthermore, to investigate the responses of the reactor to small amplitude perturbations and to facilitate control system designs, a least-square based system identification technique is used to obtain a set of linear dynamic models around the design point. The responses based on the linear dynamic models are validated with simulation results from nonlinear CANDU-SCWR dynamic model.

Dynamic Circuit Model for Spintronic Devices

KAUST Repository

Alawein, Meshal

2017-01-09

In this work we propose a finite-difference scheme based circuit model of a general spintronic device and benchmark it with other models proposed for spintronic switching devices. Our model is based on the four-component spin circuit theory and utilizes the widely used coupled stochastic magnetization dynamics/spin transport framework. In addition to the steady-state analysis, this work offers a transient analysis of carrier transport. By discretizing the temporal and spatial derivatives to generate a linear system of equations, we derive new and simple finite-difference conductance matrices that can, to the first order, capture both static and dynamic behaviors of a spintronic device. We also discuss an extension of the spin modified nodal analysis (SMNA) for time-dependent situations based on the proposed scheme.

Dynamic Circuit Model for Spintronic Devices

KAUST Repository

Alawein, Meshal; Fariborzi, Hossein

2017-01-01

In this work we propose a finite-difference scheme based circuit model of a general spintronic device and benchmark it with other models proposed for spintronic switching devices. Our model is based on the four-component spin circuit theory and utilizes the widely used coupled stochastic magnetization dynamics/spin transport framework. In addition to the steady-state analysis, this work offers a transient analysis of carrier transport. By discretizing the temporal and spatial derivatives to generate a linear system of equations, we derive new and simple finite-difference conductance matrices that can, to the first order, capture both static and dynamic behaviors of a spintronic device. We also discuss an extension of the spin modified nodal analysis (SMNA) for time-dependent situations based on the proposed scheme.

Dynamic queuing transmission model for dynamic network loading

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Raovic, Nevena; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

2017-01-01

and allowing for the representation of multiple vehicle classes, queue spillbacks and shock waves. The model assumes that a link is split into a moving part plus a queuing part, and p that traffic dynamics are given by a triangular fundamental diagram. A case-study is investigated and the DQTM is compared...

Complex Price Dynamics in the Modified Kaldorian Model

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kodera, Jan; Van Tran, Q.; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2013-01-01

Roč. 22, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-384 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Priice dynamics, * numerical examples * two-equation model * four-equation model * nonlinear time series analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kodera-model of price dynamics and chaos.pdf

Quadratic tracer dynamical models tobacco growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qiang Jiyi; Hua Cuncai; Wang Shaohua

2011-01-01

In order to study the non-uniformly transferring process of some tracer dosages, we assume that the absorption of some tracer by tobacco is a quadratic function of the tracer quantity of the tracer in the case of fast absorption, whereas the exclusion of the tracer from tobacco is a linear function of the tracer quantity in the case of slow exclusion, after the tracer is introduced into tobacco once at zero time. A single-compartment quadratic dynamical model of Logistic type is established for the leaves of tobacco. Then, a two-compartment quadratic dynamical model is established for leaves and calms of the tobacco. Qualitative analysis of the models shows that the tracer applied to the leaves of the tobacco is excluded finally; however, the tracer stays at the tobacco for finite time. Two methods are also given for computing the parameters in the models. Finally, the results of the models are verified by the 32 P experiment for the absorption of tobacco. (authors)

Wind speed dynamical model in a wind farm

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal

2010-01-01

, the dynamic model for wind flow will be established. The state space variables are determined based on a fine mesh defined for the farm. The end goal of this method is to assist the development of a dynamical model of a wind farm that can be engaged for better wind farm control strategies....

Dynamic subgrid scale model of large eddy simulation of cross bundle flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, Y.A.; Barsamian, H.R.

1996-01-01

The dynamic subgrid scale closure model of Germano et. al (1991) is used in the large eddy simulation code GUST for incompressible isothermal flows. Tube bundle geometries of staggered and non-staggered arrays are considered in deep bundle simulations. The advantage of the dynamic subgrid scale model is the exclusion of an input model coefficient. The model coefficient is evaluated dynamically for each nodal location in the flow domain. Dynamic subgrid scale results are obtained in the form of power spectral densities and flow visualization of turbulent characteristics. Comparisons are performed among the dynamic subgrid scale model, the Smagorinsky eddy viscosity model (that is used as the base model for the dynamic subgrid scale model) and available experimental data. Spectral results of the dynamic subgrid scale model correlate better with experimental data. Satisfactory turbulence characteristics are observed through flow visualization

Explorations in combining cognitive models of individuals and system dynamics models of groups.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.

2008-07-01

This report documents a demonstration model of interacting insurgent leadership, military leadership, government leadership, and societal dynamics under a variety of interventions. The primary focus of the work is the portrayal of a token societal model that responds to leadership activities. The model also includes a linkage between leadership and society that implicitly represents the leadership subordinates as they directly interact with the population. The societal model is meant to demonstrate the efficacy and viability of using System Dynamics (SD) methods to simulate populations and that these can then connect to cognitive models depicting individuals. SD models typically focus on average behavior and thus have limited applicability to describe small groups or individuals. On the other hand, cognitive models readily describe individual behavior but can become cumbersome when used to describe populations. Realistic security situations are invariably a mix of individual and population dynamics. Therefore, the ability to tie SD models to cognitive models provides a critical capability that would be otherwise be unavailable.

Modeling Temporal Behavior in Large Networks: A Dynamic Mixed-Membership Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rossi, R; Gallagher, B; Neville, J; Henderson, K

2011-11-11

Given a large time-evolving network, how can we model and characterize the temporal behaviors of individual nodes (and network states)? How can we model the behavioral transition patterns of nodes? We propose a temporal behavior model that captures the 'roles' of nodes in the graph and how they evolve over time. The proposed dynamic behavioral mixed-membership model (DBMM) is scalable, fully automatic (no user-defined parameters), non-parametric/data-driven (no specific functional form or parameterization), interpretable (identifies explainable patterns), and flexible (applicable to dynamic and streaming networks). Moreover, the interpretable behavioral roles are generalizable, computationally efficient, and natively supports attributes. We applied our model for (a) identifying patterns and trends of nodes and network states based on the temporal behavior, (b) predicting future structural changes, and (c) detecting unusual temporal behavior transitions. We use eight large real-world datasets from different time-evolving settings (dynamic and streaming). In particular, we model the evolving mixed-memberships and the corresponding behavioral transitions of Twitter, Facebook, IP-Traces, Email (University), Internet AS, Enron, Reality, and IMDB. The experiments demonstrate the scalability, flexibility, and effectiveness of our model for identifying interesting patterns, detecting unusual structural transitions, and predicting the future structural changes of the network and individual nodes.

Dynamic modelling and simulation for control of a cylindrical robotic manipulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iqbal, A.; Athar, S.M.

1995-03-01

In this report a dynamic model for the three degrees-of-freedom cylindrical manipulator, INFOMATE has been developed. Although the robot dynamics are highly coupled and non-linear, the developed model is relatively straight forward and compact for control engineering and simulation applications. The model has been simulated using the graphical simulation package SIMULINK. Different aspects of INFOMATE associated with forward dynamics, inverse dynamics and control have been investigated by performing various simulation experiments. These simulation experiments confirm the accuracy and applicability of the dynamic robot model. (author) 18 figs

OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C Brandon Ogbunugafor

Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogbunugafor, C Brandon; Robinson, Sean P

2016-01-01

Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL.) Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative) abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie

2015-04-01

Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten

Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

CERN Document Server

Ukkusuri, Satish V

2013-01-01

This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

Modelling Dynamic Topologies via Extensions of VDM-RT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Claus Ballegård

Only a few formal methods include descriptions of the network topology that the modelled system is deployed onto. In VDM Real-Time (VDM-RT) this has been enabled for distributed systems that have a static structure. However, when modelling dynamic systems this fixed topology becomes an issue....... Systems with highly distributed and alternating relationships cannot be expressed correctly in a static model. This document describes how VDM-RT can be extended with new language constructs to enable the description of dynamic reconfiguration of the network topology during the runtime execution...... of a model. The extension is developed on the basis of a case study involving a dynamic system that has a constant changing system topology. With a basis in the case study a model is developed that uses the static version of VDM-RT in order to reveal the limitations of the language. The case study...

An Interprofessional Approach to Continuing Education With Mass Casualty Simulation: Planning and Execution.

Science.gov (United States)

Saber, Deborah A; Strout, Kelley; Caruso, Lisa Swanson; Ingwell-Spolan, Charlene; Koplovsky, Aiden

2017-10-01

Many natural and man-made disasters require the assistance from teams of health care professionals. Knowing that continuing education about disaster simulation training is essential to nursing students, nurses, and emergency first responders (e.g., emergency medical technicians, firefighters, police officers), a university in the northeastern United States planned and implemented an interprofessional mass casualty incident (MCI) disaster simulation using the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK) management framework. The school of nursing and University Volunteer Ambulance Corps (UVAC) worked together to simulate a bus crash with disaster victim actors to provide continued education for community first responders and train nursing students on the MCI process. This article explains the simulation activity, planning process, and achieved outcomes. J Contin Educ Nurs. 2017;48(10):447-453. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

Dynamical phase transitions in spin models and automata

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derrida, B.

1989-01-01

Some of the models and methods developed in the study of the dynamics of spin models and automata are described. Special attention is given to the distance method which consists of comparing the time evolution of two configurations. The method is used to obtain the phase boundary between a frozen and a chaotic phase in the case of deterministic models. For stochastic systems the method is used to obtain dynamical phase transitions

Network Unfolding Map by Vertex-Edge Dynamics Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Verri, Filipe Alves Neto; Urio, Paulo Roberto; Zhao, Liang

2018-02-01

The emergence of collective dynamics in neural networks is a mechanism of the animal and human brain for information processing. In this paper, we develop a computational technique using distributed processing elements in a complex network, which are called particles, to solve semisupervised learning problems. Three actions govern the particles' dynamics: generation, walking, and absorption. Labeled vertices generate new particles that compete against rival particles for edge domination. Active particles randomly walk in the network until they are absorbed by either a rival vertex or an edge currently dominated by rival particles. The result from the model evolution consists of sets of edges arranged by the label dominance. Each set tends to form a connected subnetwork to represent a data class. Although the intrinsic dynamics of the model is a stochastic one, we prove that there exists a deterministic version with largely reduced computational complexity; specifically, with linear growth. Furthermore, the edge domination process corresponds to an unfolding map in such way that edges "stretch" and "shrink" according to the vertex-edge dynamics. Consequently, the unfolding effect summarizes the relevant relationships between vertices and the uncovered data classes. The proposed model captures important details of connectivity patterns over the vertex-edge dynamics evolution, in contrast to the previous approaches, which focused on only vertex or only edge dynamics. Computer simulations reveal that the new model can identify nonlinear features in both real and artificial data, including boundaries between distinct classes and overlapping structures of data.

Dynamical models of the human eye and strabismus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pascolo, P.; Carniel, R.; Grimaz, S.

2009-01-01

In this work, the applicability of a recently published dynamical model of the eye to the case of strabismus is investigated. Although the basic scheme of the original model remains valid, the simulation of the pathological dynamics requires a more suitable coverage of the space of the physiological rotations of the eye. This requisite is reached by developing the original model and by taking into account the contributions of connective tissues that were originally neglected. Possible wider fields of application of the model are then discussed.

Characterizing and modeling the dynamics of online popularity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ratkiewicz, Jacob; Fortunato, Santo; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo; Vespignani, Alessandro

2010-10-08

Online popularity has an enormous impact on opinions, culture, policy, and profits. We provide a quantitative, large scale, temporal analysis of the dynamics of online content popularity in two massive model systems: the Wikipedia and an entire country's Web space. We find that the dynamics of popularity are characterized by bursts, displaying characteristic features of critical systems such as fat-tailed distributions of magnitude and interevent time. We propose a minimal model combining the classic preferential popularity increase mechanism with the occurrence of random popularity shifts due to exogenous factors. The model recovers the critical features observed in the empirical analysis of the systems analyzed here, highlighting the key factors needed in the description of popularity dynamics.

Mineral vein dynamics modeling (FRACS). Phase 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Urai, J.; Virgo, S.; Arndt, M. [RWTH Aachen (Germany). Geologie-Endogene Dynamik] [and others

2013-07-15

The Mineral Vein Dynamics Modeling group ''FRACS'' is a team of 7 research groups from the Universities of Mainz, Aachen, Tuebingen, Karlsruhe, Bayreuth, ETH Zuerich and Glasgow working on an understanding of the dynamic development of fracturing, fluid flow and fracture sealing. World-class field laboratories, especially carbonate sequences from the Oman Mountains are studied and classified. State of the art numerical programs are written, expanded and used to simulate the dynamic interaction of fracturing, flow and resealing and the results are compared with the natural examples. Newest analytical technologies including laser scanning, high resolution X-ray microtomography, fluid inclusion and isotope analysis are performed to understand and compare the results of simulations with natural examples. A new statistical program was developed to classify the natural fracture and vein systems and compare them with dynamic numerical simulations and analytical models. The results of the first project phase are extremely promising. Most of the numerical models have been developed up to the stage where they can be used to simulate the natural examples. The models allow a definition of the first proxies for high fluid pressure and tectonic stresses. It was found out that the Oman Mountains are a complex and very dynamic system that constantly fractures and reseals from the scale of small veins up to the scale of large normal and strike slip faults. The numerical simulations also indicate that the permeability of such systems is not a constant but that the system adjusts to the driving force, for ex-ample high fluid pressure. When the system reseals fast a fluctuating behavior can be observed in the models where the system constantly fractures and reseals, which is in accordance with the observation of the natural laboratory.

BWR stability using a reducing dynamical model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballestrin Bolea, J. M.; Blazquez Martinez, J. B.

1990-01-01

BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical structure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations is non-linear. Simple parametric calculation of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author)

Model for the dynamic study of AC contactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Corcoles, F.; Pedra, J.; Garrido, J.P.; Baza, R. [Dep. d' Eng. Electrica ETSEIB. UPC, Barcelona (Spain)

2000-08-01

This paper proposes a model for the dynamic analysis of AC contactors. The calculation algorithm and implementation are discussed. The proposed model can be used to study the influence of the design parameters and the supply in their dynamic behaviour. The high calculation speed of the implemented algorithm allows extensive ranges of parameter variations to be analysed. (orig.)

Activated aging dynamics and effective trap model description in the random energy model

Science.gov (United States)

Baity-Jesi, M.; Biroli, G.; Cammarota, C.

2018-01-01

We study the out-of-equilibrium aging dynamics of the random energy model (REM) ruled by a single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics. We focus on the dynamical evolution taking place on time-scales diverging with the system size. Our aim is to show to what extent the activated dynamics displayed by the REM can be described in terms of an effective trap model. We identify two time regimes: the first one corresponds to the process of escaping from a basin in the energy landscape and to the subsequent exploration of high energy configurations, whereas the second one corresponds to the evolution from a deep basin to the other. By combining numerical simulations with analytical arguments we show why the trap model description does not hold in the former but becomes exact in the second.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Sepsis progression and outcome: a dynamical model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gessler Damian DG

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Sepsis (bloodstream infection is the leading cause of death in non-surgical intensive care units. It is diagnosed in 750,000 US patients per annum, and has high mortality. Current understanding of sepsis is predominately observational and correlational, with only a partial and incomplete understanding of the physiological dynamics underlying the syndrome. There exists a need for dynamical models of sepsis progression, based upon basic physiologic principles, which could eventually guide hourly treatment decisions. Results We present an initial mathematical model of sepsis, based on metabolic rate theory that links basic vascular and immunological dynamics. The model includes the rate of vascular circulation, a surrogate for the metabolic rate that is mechanistically associated with disease progression. We use the mass-specific rate of blood circulation (SRBC, a correlate of the body mass index, to build a differential equation model of circulation, infection, organ damage, and recovery. This introduces a vascular component into an infectious disease model that describes the interaction between a pathogen and the adaptive immune system. Conclusion The model predicts that deviations from normal SRBC correlate with disease progression and adverse outcome. We compare the predictions with population mortality data from cardiovascular disease and cancer and show that deviations from normal SRBC correlate with higher mortality rates.

Collisional model for granular impact dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Abram H; Petersen, Alec J; Behringer, Robert P

2014-01-01

When an intruder strikes a granular material from above, the grains exert a stopping force which decelerates and stops the intruder. Many previous studies have used a macroscopic force law, including a drag force which is quadratic in velocity, to characterize the decelerating force on the intruder. However, the microscopic origins of the force-law terms are still a subject of debate. Here, drawing from previous experiments with photoelastic particles, we present a model which describes the velocity-squared force in terms of repeated collisions with clusters of grains. From our high speed photoelastic data, we infer that "clusters" correspond to segments of the strong force network that are excited by the advancing intruder. The model predicts a scaling relation for the velocity-squared drag force that accounts for the intruder shape. Additionally, we show that the collisional model predicts an instability to rotations, which depends on the intruder shape. To test this model, we perform a comprehensive experimental study of the dynamics of two-dimensional granular impacts on beds of photoelastic disks, with different profiles for the leading edge of the intruder. We particularly focus on a simple and useful case for testing shape effects by using triangular-nosed intruders. We show that the collisional model effectively captures the dynamics of intruder deceleration and rotation; i.e., these two dynamical effects can be described as two different manifestations of the same grain-scale physical processes.

Slow dynamics in translation-invariant quantum lattice models

Science.gov (United States)

Michailidis, Alexios A.; Žnidarič, Marko; Medvedyeva, Mariya; Abanin, Dmitry A.; Prosen, Tomaž; Papić, Z.

2018-03-01

Many-body quantum systems typically display fast dynamics and ballistic spreading of information. Here we address the open problem of how slow the dynamics can be after a generic breaking of integrability by local interactions. We develop a method based on degenerate perturbation theory that reveals slow dynamical regimes and delocalization processes in general translation invariant models, along with accurate estimates of their delocalization time scales. Our results shed light on the fundamental questions of the robustness of quantum integrable systems and the possibility of many-body localization without disorder. As an example, we construct a large class of one-dimensional lattice models where, despite the absence of asymptotic localization, the transient dynamics is exceptionally slow, i.e., the dynamics is indistinguishable from that of many-body localized systems for the system sizes and time scales accessible in experiments and numerical simulations.

A modified social force model for crowd dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Ummi Nurmasyitah; Zainuddin, Zarita; Abu-Sulyman, Ibtesam M.

2017-08-01

The Social Force Model (SFM) is one of the most successful models in microscopic pedestrian studies that is used to study the movement of pedestrians. Many modifications have been done to improvise the SFM by earlier researchers such as the incorporation of a constant respect factor into the self-stopping mechanism. Before the new mechanism is introduced, the researchers found out that a pedestrian will immediately come to a halt if other pedestrians are near to him, which seems to be an unrealistic behavior. Therefore, researchers introduce a self-slowing mechanism to gradually stop a pedestrian when he is approaching other pedestrians. Subsequently, the dynamic respect factor is introduced into the self-slowing mechanism based on the density of the pedestrians to make the model even more realistic. In real life situations, the respect factor of the pedestrians should be dynamic values instead of a constant value. However, when we reproduce the simulation of the dynamic respect factor, we found that the movement of the pedestrians are unrealistic because the pedestrians are lacking perception of the pedestrians in front of him. In this paper, we adopted both dynamic respect factor and dynamic angular parameter, called modified dynamic respect factor, which is dependent on the density of the pedestrians. Simulations are performed in a normal unidirectional walkway to compare the simulated pedestrians' movements produced by both models. The results obtained showed that the modified dynamic respect factor produces more realistic movement of the pedestrians which conform to the real situation. Moreover, we also found that the simulations endow the pedestrian with a self-slowing mechanism and a perception of other pedestrians in front of him.

Adaptive-network models of collective dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Zschaler, G.

2012-09-01

Complex systems can often be modelled as networks, in which their basic units are represented by abstract nodes and the interactions among them by abstract links. This network of interactions is the key to understanding emergent collective phenomena in such systems. In most cases, it is an adaptive network, which is defined by a feedback loop between the local dynamics of the individual units and the dynamical changes of the network structure itself. This feedback loop gives rise to many novel phenomena. Adaptive networks are a promising concept for the investigation of collective phenomena in different systems. However, they also present a challenge to existing modelling approaches and analytical descriptions due to the tight coupling between local and topological degrees of freedom. In this work, which is essentially my PhD thesis, I present a simple rule-based framework for the investigation of adaptive networks, using which a wide range of collective phenomena can be modelled and analysed from a common perspective. In this framework, a microscopic model is defined by the local interaction rules of small network motifs, which can be implemented in stochastic simulations straightforwardly. Moreover, an approximate emergent-level description in terms of macroscopic variables can be derived from the microscopic rules, which we use to analyse the system's collective and long-term behaviour by applying tools from dynamical systems theory. We discuss three adaptive-network models for different collective phenomena within our common framework. First, we propose a novel approach to collective motion in insect swarms, in which we consider the insects' adaptive interaction network instead of explicitly tracking their positions and velocities. We capture the experimentally observed onset of collective motion qualitatively in terms of a bifurcation in this non-spatial model. We find that three-body interactions are an essential ingredient for collective motion to emerge

A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daxin Tian

2015-01-01

Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.

A dynamic model of the wormhole and the Multiverse model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shatskii, A A; Kardashev, N S; Novikov, I D

2008-01-01

An analytic solution methodology for general relativity (GR) equations describing the hypothetical phenomenon of wormholes is presented and the analysis of wormholes in terms of their physical properties is discussed. An analytic solution of the GR equations for static and dynamic spherically symmetric wormholes is given. The dynamic solution generally describes a 'traversable' wormhole, i.e., one allowing matter, energy, and information to pass through it. It is shown how the energy-momentum tensor of matter in a wormhole can be represented in a form allowing the GR equations to be solved analytically, which has a crucial methodological importance for analyzing the properties of the solution obtained. The energy-momentum tensor of wormhole matter is represented as a superposition of a spherically symmetric magnetic (or electric) field and negative-density dust matter, serving as exotic matter necessary for a 'traversable' wormhole to exist. The dynamics of the model are investigated. A similar model is considered (and analyzed in terms of inflation) for the Einstein equations with a Λ term. Superposing enough dust matter, a magnetic field, and a Λ term can produce a static solution, which turns out to be a spherical Multiverse model with an infinite number of wormhole-connected spherical universes. This Multiverse can have its total energy positive everywhere in space, and in addition can be out of equilibrium (i.e., dynamic). (methodological notes)

A dynamic model of the wormhole and the Multiverse model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shatskii, A A; Kardashev, N S [Astro-Space Centre of the P. N. Lebedev Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Novikov, I D [Russian Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation)

2008-05-31

An analytic solution methodology for general relativity (GR) equations describing the hypothetical phenomenon of wormholes is presented and the analysis of wormholes in terms of their physical properties is discussed. An analytic solution of the GR equations for static and dynamic spherically symmetric wormholes is given. The dynamic solution generally describes a 'traversable' wormhole, i.e., one allowing matter, energy, and information to pass through it. It is shown how the energy-momentum tensor of matter in a wormhole can be represented in a form allowing the GR equations to be solved analytically, which has a crucial methodological importance for analyzing the properties of the solution obtained. The energy-momentum tensor of wormhole matter is represented as a superposition of a spherically symmetric magnetic (or electric) field and negative-density dust matter, serving as exotic matter necessary for a 'traversable' wormhole to exist. The dynamics of the model are investigated. A similar model is considered (and analyzed in terms of inflation) for the Einstein equations with a {lambda} term. Superposing enough dust matter, a magnetic field, and a {lambda} term can produce a static solution, which turns out to be a spherical Multiverse model with an infinite number of wormhole-connected spherical universes. This Multiverse can have its total energy positive everywhere in space, and in addition can be out of equilibrium (i.e., dynamic). (methodological notes)

Selecting a dynamic simulation modeling method for health care delivery research-part 2: report of the ISPOR Dynamic Simulation Modeling Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Deborah A; Burgos-Liz, Lina; IJzerman, Maarten J; Crown, William; Padula, William V; Wong, Peter K; Pasupathy, Kalyan S; Higashi, Mitchell K; Osgood, Nathaniel D

2015-03-01

In a previous report, the ISPOR Task Force on Dynamic Simulation Modeling Applications in Health Care Delivery Research Emerging Good Practices introduced the fundamentals of dynamic simulation modeling and identified the types of health care delivery problems for which dynamic simulation modeling can be used more effectively than other modeling methods. The hierarchical relationship between the health care delivery system, providers, patients, and other stakeholders exhibits a level of complexity that ought to be captured using dynamic simulation modeling methods. As a tool to help researchers decide whether dynamic simulation modeling is an appropriate method for modeling the effects of an intervention on a health care system, we presented the System, Interactions, Multilevel, Understanding, Loops, Agents, Time, Emergence (SIMULATE) checklist consisting of eight elements. This report builds on the previous work, systematically comparing each of the three most commonly used dynamic simulation modeling methods-system dynamics, discrete-event simulation, and agent-based modeling. We review criteria for selecting the most suitable method depending on 1) the purpose-type of problem and research questions being investigated, 2) the object-scope of the model, and 3) the method to model the object to achieve the purpose. Finally, we provide guidance for emerging good practices for dynamic simulation modeling in the health sector, covering all aspects, from the engagement of decision makers in the model design through model maintenance and upkeep. We conclude by providing some recommendations about the application of these methods to add value to informed decision making, with an emphasis on stakeholder engagement, starting with the problem definition. Finally, we identify areas in which further methodological development will likely occur given the growing "volume, velocity and variety" and availability of "big data" to provide empirical evidence and techniques

An Efficient Dynamic Trust Evaluation Model for Wireless Sensor Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengwang Ye

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Trust evaluation is an effective method to detect malicious nodes and ensure security in wireless sensor networks (WSNs. In this paper, an efficient dynamic trust evaluation model (DTEM for WSNs is proposed, which implements accurate, efficient, and dynamic trust evaluation by dynamically adjusting the weights of direct trust and indirect trust and the parameters of the update mechanism. To achieve accurate trust evaluation, the direct trust is calculated considering multitrust including communication trust, data trust, and energy trust with the punishment factor and regulating function. The indirect trust is evaluated conditionally by the trusted recommendations from a third party. Moreover, the integrated trust is measured by assigning dynamic weights for direct trust and indirect trust and combining them. Finally, we propose an update mechanism by a sliding window based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator to enhance flexibility. We can dynamically adapt the parameters and the interactive history windows number according to the actual needs of the network to realize dynamic update of direct trust value. Simulation results indicate that the proposed dynamic trust model is an efficient dynamic and attack-resistant trust evaluation model. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed dynamic trust model performs better in defending multiple malicious attacks.

RETRAN dynamic slip model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McFadden, J.H.; Paulsen, M.P.; Gose, G.C.

1981-01-01

Thermal-hydraulic codes in general use for system calculations are based on extensive analyses of loss-of-coolant accidents following the postulated rupture of a large coolant pipe. In this study, time-dependent equation for the slip velocity in a two-phase flow condition has been incorporated into the RETRAN-02 computer code. This model addition was undertaken to remove a limitation in RETRAN-01 associated with the homogeneous equilibrium mixture model. The dynamic slip equation was derived from a set of two-fluid conservation equations. 18 refs

Modeling biological pathway dynamics with timed automata.

Science.gov (United States)

Schivo, Stefano; Scholma, Jetse; Wanders, Brend; Urquidi Camacho, Ricardo A; van der Vet, Paul E; Karperien, Marcel; Langerak, Rom; van de Pol, Jaco; Post, Janine N

2014-05-01

Living cells are constantly subjected to a plethora of environmental stimuli that require integration into an appropriate cellular response. This integration takes place through signal transduction events that form tightly interconnected networks. The understanding of these networks requires capturing their dynamics through computational support and models. ANIMO (analysis of Networks with Interactive Modeling) is a tool that enables the construction and exploration of executable models of biological networks, helping to derive hypotheses and to plan wet-lab experiments. The tool is based on the formalism of Timed Automata, which can be analyzed via the UPPAAL model checker. Thanks to Timed Automata, we can provide a formal semantics for the domain-specific language used to represent signaling networks. This enforces precision and uniformity in the definition of signaling pathways, contributing to the integration of isolated signaling events into complex network models. We propose an approach to discretization of reaction kinetics that allows us to efficiently use UPPAAL as the computational engine to explore the dynamic behavior of the network of interest. A user-friendly interface hides the use of Timed Automata from the user, while keeping the expressive power intact. Abstraction to single-parameter kinetics speeds up construction of models that remain faithful enough to provide meaningful insight. The resulting dynamic behavior of the network components is displayed graphically, allowing for an intuitive and interactive modeling experience.

Efficient Neural Network Modeling for Flight and Space Dynamics Simulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayman Hamdy Kassem

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper represents an efficient technique for neural network modeling of flight and space dynamics simulation. The technique will free the neural network designer from guessing the size and structure for the required neural network model and will help to minimize the number of neurons. For linear flight/space dynamics systems, the technique can find the network weights and biases directly by solving a system of linear equations without the need for training. Nonlinear flight dynamic systems can be easily modeled by training its linearized models keeping the same network structure. The training is fast, as it uses the linear system knowledge to speed up the training process. The technique is tested on different flight/space dynamic models and showed promising results.

Evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling for multibody systems

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S. K. Saha

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamic modelling of a multibody system plays very essential role in its analyses. As a result, several methods for dynamic modelling have evolved over the years that allow one to analyse multibody systems in a very efficient manner. One such method of dynamic modelling is based on the concept of the Decoupled Natural Orthogonal Complement (DeNOC matrices. The DeNOC-based methodology for dynamics modelling, since its introduction in 1995, has been applied to a variety of multibody systems such as serial, parallel, general closed-loop, flexible, legged, cam-follower, and space robots. The methodology has also proven useful for modelling of proteins and hyper-degree-of-freedom systems like ropes, chains, etc. This paper captures the evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling applied to different type of systems, and its benefits over other existing methodologies. It is shown that the DeNOC-based modelling provides deeper understanding of the dynamics of a multibody system. The power of the DeNOC-based modelling has been illustrated using several numerical examples.

Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo

2002-01-01

In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...

Simple mathematical models of gene regulatory dynamics

CERN Document Server

Mackey, Michael C; Tyran-Kamińska, Marta; Zeron, Eduardo S

2016-01-01

This is a short and self-contained introduction to the field of mathematical modeling of gene-networks in bacteria. As an entry point to the field, we focus on the analysis of simple gene-network dynamics. The notes commence with an introduction to the deterministic modeling of gene-networks, with extensive reference to applicable results coming from dynamical systems theory. The second part of the notes treats extensively several approaches to the study of gene-network dynamics in the presence of noise—either arising from low numbers of molecules involved, or due to noise external to the regulatory process. The third and final part of the notes gives a detailed treatment of three well studied and concrete examples of gene-network dynamics by considering the lactose operon, the tryptophan operon, and the lysis-lysogeny switch. The notes contain an index for easy location of particular topics as well as an extensive bibliography of the current literature. The target audience of these notes are mainly graduat...

Structural dynamic modifications via models

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The study shows that as many as half of the matrix ... the dynamicist's analytical modelling skill which would appear both in the numerator as. Figure 2. ..... Brandon J A 1990 Strategies for structural dynamic modification (New York: John Wiley).

A fermionic molecular dynamics technique to model nuclear matter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vantournhout, K.; Jachowicz, N.; Ryckebusch, J.

2009-01-01

Full text: At sub-nuclear densities of about 10 14 g/cm 3 , nuclear matter arranges itself in a variety of complex shapes. This can be the case in the crust of neutron stars and in core-collapse supernovae. These slab like and rod like structures, designated as nuclear pasta, have been modelled with classical molecular dynamics techniques. We present a technique, based on fermionic molecular dynamics, to model nuclear matter at sub-nuclear densities in a semi classical framework. The dynamical evolution of an antisymmetric ground state is described making the assumption of periodic boundary conditions. Adding the concepts of antisymmetry, spin and probability distributions to classical molecular dynamics, brings the dynamical description of nuclear matter to a quantum mechanical level. Applications of this model vary from investigation of macroscopic observables and the equation of state to the study of fundamental interactions on the microscopic structure of the matter. (author)

Modeling the dynamic characteristics of pneumatic muscle.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, D B; Repperger, D W; Phillips, C A; Bandry, G

2003-03-01

A pneumatic muscle (PM) system was studied to determine whether a three-element model could describe its dynamics. As far as the authors are aware, this model has not been used to describe the dynamics of PM. A new phenomenological model consists of a contractile (force-generating) element, spring element, and damping element in parallel. The PM system was investigated using an apparatus that allowed precise and accurate actuation pressure (P) control by a linear servo-valve. Length change of the PM was measured by a linear potentiometer. Spring and damping element functions of P were determined by a static perturbation method at several constant P values. These results indicate that at constant P, PM behaves as a spring and damper in parallel. The contractile element function of P was determined by the response to a step input in P, using values of spring and damping elements from the perturbation study. The study showed that the resulting coefficient functions of the three-element model describe the dynamic response to the step input of P accurately, indicating that the static perturbation results can be applied to the dynamic case. This model is further validated by accurately predicting the contraction response to a triangular P waveform. All three elements have pressure-dependent coefficients for pressure P in the range 207 < or = P < or = 621 kPa (30 < or = P < or = 90 psi). Studies with a step decrease in P (relaxation of the PM) indicate that the damping element coefficient is smaller during relaxation than contraction.

Information-theoretic analysis of the dynamics of an executable biological model.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Avital Sadot

Full Text Available To facilitate analysis and understanding of biological systems, large-scale data are often integrated into models using a variety of mathematical and computational approaches. Such models describe the dynamics of the biological system and can be used to study the changes in the state of the system over time. For many model classes, such as discrete or continuous dynamical systems, there exist appropriate frameworks and tools for analyzing system dynamics. However, the heterogeneous information that encodes and bridges molecular and cellular dynamics, inherent to fine-grained molecular simulation models, presents significant challenges to the study of system dynamics. In this paper, we present an algorithmic information theory based approach for the analysis and interpretation of the dynamics of such executable models of biological systems. We apply a normalized compression distance (NCD analysis to the state representations of a model that simulates the immune decision making and immune cell behavior. We show that this analysis successfully captures the essential information in the dynamics of the system, which results from a variety of events including proliferation, differentiation, or perturbations such as gene knock-outs. We demonstrate that this approach can be used for the analysis of executable models, regardless of the modeling framework, and for making experimentally quantifiable predictions.

Nonlinear dynamic phenomena in the beer model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mosekilde, Erik; Laugesen, Jakob Lund

2007-01-01

The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we...

A Comparative Study of Three Methodologies for Modeling Dynamic Stall

Science.gov (United States)

Sankar, L.; Rhee, M.; Tung, C.; ZibiBailly, J.; LeBalleur, J. C.; Blaise, D.; Rouzaud, O.

2002-01-01

During the past two decades, there has been an increased reliance on the use of computational fluid dynamics methods for modeling rotors in high speed forward flight. Computational methods are being developed for modeling the shock induced loads on the advancing side, first-principles based modeling of the trailing wake evolution, and for retreating blade stall. The retreating blade dynamic stall problem has received particular attention, because the large variations in lift and pitching moments encountered in dynamic stall can lead to blade vibrations and pitch link fatigue. Restricting to aerodynamics, the numerical prediction of dynamic stall is still a complex and challenging CFD problem, that, even in two dimensions at low speed, gathers the major difficulties of aerodynamics, such as the grid resolution requirements for the viscous phenomena at leading-edge bubbles or in mixing-layers, the bias of the numerical viscosity, and the major difficulties of the physical modeling, such as the turbulence models, the transition models, whose both determinant influences, already present in static maximal-lift or stall computations, are emphasized by the dynamic aspect of the phenomena.

Conceptual Model of Dynamic Geographic Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martínez-Rosales Miguel Alejandro

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In geographic environments, there are many and different types of geographic entities such as automobiles, trees, persons, buildings, storms, hurricanes, etc. These entities can be classified into two groups: geographic objects and geographic phenomena. By its nature, a geographic environment is dynamic, thus, it’s static modeling is not sufficient. Considering the dynamics of geographic environment, a new type of geographic entity called event is introduced. The primary target is a modeling of geographic environment as an event sequence, because in this case the semantic relations are much richer than in the case of static modeling. In this work, the conceptualization of this model is proposed. It is based on the idea to process each entity apart instead of processing the environment as a whole. After that, the so called history of each entity and its spatial relations to other entities are defined to describe the whole environment. The main goal is to model systems at a conceptual level that make use of spatial and temporal information, so that later it can serve as the semantic engine for such systems.

Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anne M. Estes

2015-08-01

Full Text Available “Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1 niche availability and habitat space and 2 a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determine what the person with the microbiome “ate.” Students then model the effect of taking antibiotics by removing certain “antibiotic sensitive” pasta. Finally, they add in “environmental microbes” or “native microbes” to recolonize the digestive system, determine how resilient their model microbome community is to disturbance, and discuss the implications. Throughout the exercise, students discuss differences in the habitat space available and microbiome community diversity. This exercise can be modified to discuss changes in the microbiome due to diet shifts and the emergence of antibiotic resistance in more depth.

Identification of a nuclear plant dynamics via ARMAX model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamamoto, Shigeki; Otsuji, Tomoo; Muramatsu, Eiichi

2000-01-01

Dynamics of the reactor of nuclear ship 'Mutsu' is described by a linear time-invariant discrete-time model which is referred to as ARMAX (Auto-Regressive Moving Average eXogenious inputs) model. Applying system identification methods, parameters of the ARMAX model are determined from input-output data of the reactor. Accuracy of the model is examined in time and frequency domain. We show that the model can be a good approximation of the plant dynamics. (author)

A meta-model for computer executable dynamic clinical safety checklists.

Science.gov (United States)

Nan, Shan; Van Gorp, Pieter; Lu, Xudong; Kaymak, Uzay; Korsten, Hendrikus; Vdovjak, Richard; Duan, Huilong

2017-12-12

Safety checklist is a type of cognitive tool enforcing short term memory of medical workers with the purpose of reducing medical errors caused by overlook and ignorance. To facilitate the daily use of safety checklists, computerized systems embedded in the clinical workflow and adapted to patient-context are increasingly developed. However, the current hard-coded approach of implementing checklists in these systems increase the cognitive efforts of clinical experts and coding efforts for informaticists. This is due to the lack of a formal representation format that is both understandable by clinical experts and executable by computer programs. We developed a dynamic checklist meta-model with a three-step approach. Dynamic checklist modeling requirements were extracted by performing a domain analysis. Then, existing modeling approaches and tools were investigated with the purpose of reusing these languages. Finally, the meta-model was developed by eliciting domain concepts and their hierarchies. The feasibility of using the meta-model was validated by two case studies. The meta-model was mapped to specific modeling languages according to the requirements of hospitals. Using the proposed meta-model, a comprehensive coronary artery bypass graft peri-operative checklist set and a percutaneous coronary intervention peri-operative checklist set have been developed in a Dutch hospital and a Chinese hospital, respectively. The result shows that it is feasible to use the meta-model to facilitate the modeling and execution of dynamic checklists. We proposed a novel meta-model for the dynamic checklist with the purpose of facilitating creating dynamic checklists. The meta-model is a framework of reusing existing modeling languages and tools to model dynamic checklists. The feasibility of using the meta-model is validated by implementing a use case in the system.

Challenges of the management of mass casualty: lessons learned from the Jos crisis of 2001.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozoilo, Kenneth N; Pam, Ishaya C; Yiltok, Simon J; Ramyil, Alice V; Nwadiaro, Hyacinth C

2013-10-28

Jos has witnessed a series of civil crises which have generated mass casualties that the Jos University Teaching Hospital has had to respond to from time to time. We review the challenges that we encountered in the management of the victims of the 2001 crisis. We reviewed the findings of our debriefing sessions following the sectarian crisis of September 2001 and identified the challenges and obstacles experienced during these periods. Communication was a major challenge, both within and outside the hospital. In the field, there was poor field triage and no prehospital care. Transportation and evacuation was hazardous, for both injured patients and medical personnel. This was worsened by the imposition of a curfew on the city and its environs. In the hospital, supplies such as fluids, emergency drugs, sterile dressings and instruments, splints, and other consumables, blood and food were soon exhausted. Record keeping was erratic. Staff began to show signs of physical and mental exhaustion as well as features of anxiety and stress. Tensions rose between different religious groups in the hospital and an attempt was made by rioters to attack the hospital. Patients suffered poor subsequent care following resuscitation and/or surgery and there was neglect of patients on admission prior to the crisis as well as non trauma medical emergencies. Mass casualties from disasters that disrupt organized societal mechanisms for days can pose significant challenges to the best of institutional disaster response plans. In the situation that we experienced, our disaster plan was impractical initially because it failed to factor in such a prolongation of both crisis and response. We recommend that institutional disaster response plans should incorporate provisions for the challenges we have enumerated and factor in peculiarities that would emanate from the need for a prolonged response.

Development of a Stirling System Dynamic Model with Enhanced Thermodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2005-02-01

The Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center is a software model developed from first principles that includes the mechanical and mounting dynamics, the thermodynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller of a free-piston Stirling power convertor, along with the end user load. As such it represents the first detailed modeling tool for fully integrated Stirling convertor-based power systems. The thermodynamics of the model were originally a form of the isothermal Stirling cycle. In some situations it may be desirable to improve the accuracy of the Stirling cycle portion of the model. An option under consideration is to enhance the SDM thermodynamics by coupling the model with Gedeon Associates' Sage simulation code. The result will be a model that gives a more accurate prediction of the performance and dynamics of the free-piston Stirling convertor. A method of integrating the Sage simulation code with the System Dynamic Model is described. Results of SDM and Sage simulation are compared to test data. Model parameter estimation and model validation are discussed.

Bayesian Inference of High-Dimensional Dynamical Ocean Models

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, J.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.; Lolla, S. V. T.; Gupta, A.; Haley, P. J., Jr.

2015-12-01

This presentation addresses a holistic set of challenges in high-dimension ocean Bayesian nonlinear estimation: i) predict the probability distribution functions (pdfs) of large nonlinear dynamical systems using stochastic partial differential equations (PDEs); ii) assimilate data using Bayes' law with these pdfs; iii) predict the future data that optimally reduce uncertainties; and (iv) rank the known and learn the new model formulations themselves. Overall, we allow the joint inference of the state, equations, geometry, boundary conditions and initial conditions of dynamical models. Examples are provided for time-dependent fluid and ocean flows, including cavity, double-gyre and Strait flows with jets and eddies. The Bayesian model inference, based on limited observations, is illustrated first by the estimation of obstacle shapes and positions in fluid flows. Next, the Bayesian inference of biogeochemical reaction equations and of their states and parameters is presented, illustrating how PDE-based machine learning can rigorously guide the selection and discovery of complex ecosystem models. Finally, the inference of multiscale bottom gravity current dynamics is illustrated, motivated in part by classic overflows and dense water formation sites and their relevance to climate monitoring and dynamics. This is joint work with our MSEAS group at MIT.

Development of a dynamic computational model of social cognitive theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Riley, William T; Martin, Cesar A; Rivera, Daniel E; Hekler, Eric B; Adams, Marc A; Buman, Matthew P; Pavel, Misha; King, Abby C

2016-12-01

Social cognitive theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of behavior change and has been used as the conceptual basis of health behavior interventions for smoking cessation, weight management, and other health behaviors. SCT and other behavior theories were developed primarily to explain differences between individuals, but explanatory theories of within-person behavioral variability are increasingly needed as new technologies allow for intensive longitudinal measures and interventions adapted from these inputs. These within-person explanatory theoretical applications can be modeled as dynamical systems. SCT constructs, such as reciprocal determinism, are inherently dynamical in nature, but SCT has not been modeled as a dynamical system. This paper describes the development of a dynamical system model of SCT using fluid analogies and control systems principles drawn from engineering. Simulations of this model were performed to assess if the model performed as predicted based on theory and empirical studies of SCT. This initial model generates precise and testable quantitative predictions for future intensive longitudinal research. Dynamic modeling approaches provide a rigorous method for advancing health behavior theory development and refinement and for guiding the development of more potent and efficient interventions.

Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management

Science.gov (United States)

Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.

2018-03-01

The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.

Discrete event dynamic system (DES)-based modeling for dynamic material flow in the pyroprocess

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyo Jik; Kim, Kiho; Kim, Ho Dong; Lee, Han Soo

2011-01-01

A modeling and simulation methodology was proposed in order to implement the dynamic material flow of the pyroprocess. Since the static mass balance provides the limited information on the material flow, it is hard to predict dynamic behavior according to event. Therefore, a discrete event system (DES)-based model named, PyroFlow, was developed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). PyroFlow is able to calculate dynamic mass balance and also show various dynamic operational results in real time. By using PyroFlow, it is easy to rapidly predict unforeseeable results, such as throughput in unit process, accumulated product in buffer and operation status. As preliminary simulations, bottleneck analyses in the pyroprocess were carried out and consequently it was presented that operation strategy had influence on the productivity of the pyroprocess.

Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knudsen, Morten Haack

2006-01-01

An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...

AFDM: An Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohl, W.R.; Parker, F.R.; Wilhelm, D.; Goutagny, L.; Ninokata, H.

1990-09-01

AFDM, or the Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model, is a computer code that investigates new approaches simulating the multiphase-flow fluid-dynamics aspects of severe accidents in fast reactors. The AFDM formalism starts with differential equations similar to those in the SIMMER-II code. These equations are modified to treat three velocity fields and supplemented with a variety of new models. The AFDM code has 12 topologies describing what material contacts are possible depending on the presence or absence of a given material in a computational cell, on the dominant liquid, and on the continuous phase. Single-phase, bubbly, churn-turbulent, cellular, and dispersed flow regimes are permitted for the pool situations modeled. Virtual mass terms are included for vapor in liquid-continuous flow. Interfacial areas between the continuous and discontinuous phases are convected to allow some tracking of phenomenological histories. Interfacial areas are also modified by models of nucleation, dynamic forces, turbulence, flashing, coalescence, and mass transfer. Heat transfer is generally treated using engineering correlations. Liquid-vapor phase transitions are handled with the nonequilibrium, heat-transfer-limited model, whereas melting and freezing processes are based on equilibrium considerations. Convection is treated using a fractional-step method of time integration, including a semi-implicit pressure iteration. A higher-order differencing option is provided to control numerical diffusion. The Los Alamos SESAME equation-of-state has been implemented using densities and temperatures as the independent variables. AFDM programming has vectorized all computational loops consistent with the objective of producing an exportable code. 24 refs., 4 figs

Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

2008-07-01

Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

Dynamic multibody modeling for tethered space elevators

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Paul

2009-08-01

This paper presents a fundamental modeling strategy for dealing with powered and propelled bodies moving along space tethers. The tether is divided into a large number of discrete masses, which are connected by viscoelastic springs. The tether is subject to the full range of forces expected in Earth orbit in a relatively simple manner. Two different models of the elevator dynamics are presented. In order to capture the effect of the elevator moving along the tether, the elevator dynamics are included as a separate body in both models. One model treats the elevator's motion dynamically, where propulsive and friction forces are applied to the elevator body. The second model treats the elevator's motion kinematically, where the distance along the tether is determined by adjusting the lengths of tether on either side of the elevator. The tether model is used to determine optimal configurations for the space elevator. A modal analysis of two different configurations is presented which show that the fundamental mode of oscillation is a pendular one around the anchor point with a period on the order of 160 h for the in-plane motion, and 24 h for the out-of-plane motion. Numerical simulation results of the effects of the elevator moving along the cable are presented for different travel velocities and different elevator masses.

Population is the main driver of war group size and conflict casualties.

Science.gov (United States)

Oka, Rahul C; Kissel, Marc; Golitko, Mark; Sheridan, Susan Guise; Kim, Nam C; Fuentes, Agustín

2017-12-26

The proportions of individuals involved in intergroup coalitional conflict, measured by war group size (W), conflict casualties (C), and overall group conflict deaths (G), have declined with respect to growing populations, implying that states are less violent than small-scale societies. We argue that these trends are better explained by scaling laws shared by both past and contemporary societies regardless of social organization, where group population (P) directly determines W and indirectly determines C and G. W is shown to be a power law function of P with scaling exponent X [demographic conflict investment (DCI)]. C is shown to be a power law function of W with scaling exponent Y [conflict lethality (CL)]. G is shown to be a power law function of P with scaling exponent Z [group conflict mortality (GCM)]. Results show that, while W/P and G/P decrease as expected with increasing P, C/W increases with growing W. Small-scale societies show higher but more variance in DCI and CL than contemporary states. We find no significant differences in DCI or CL between small-scale societies and contemporary states undergoing drafts or conflict, after accounting for variance and scale. We calculate relative measures of DCI and CL applicable to all societies that can be tracked over time for one or multiple actors. In light of the recent global emergence of populist, nationalist, and sectarian violence, our comparison-focused approach to DCI and CL will enable better models and analysis of the landscapes of violence in the 21st century. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Personal protection during resuscitation of casualties contaminated with chemical or biological warfare agents--a survey of medical first responders.

Science.gov (United States)

Brinker, Andrea; Prior, Kate; Schumacher, Jan

2009-01-01

The threat of mass casualties caused by an unconventional terrorist attack is a challenge for the public health system, with special implications for emergency medicine, anesthesia, and intensive care. Advanced life support of patients injured by chemical or biological warfare agents requires an adequate level of personal protection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the personal protection knowledge of emergency physicians and anesthetists who would be at the frontline of the initial health response to a chemical/biological warfare agent incident. After institutional review board approval, knowledge of personal protection measures among emergency medicine (n = 28) and anesthetics (n = 47) specialty registrars in the South Thames Region of the United Kingdom was surveyed using a standardized questionnaire. Participants were asked for the recommended level of personal protection if a chemical/biological warfare agent(s) casualty required advanced life support in the designated hospital resuscitation area. The best awareness within both groups was regarding severe acute respiratory syndrome, and fair knowledge was found regarding anthrax, plague, Ebola, and smallpox. In both groups, knowledge about personal protection requirements against chemical warfare agents was limited. Knowledge about personal protection measures for biological agents was acceptable, but was limited for chemical warfare agents. The results highlight the need to improve training and education regarding personal protection measures for medical first receivers.

Fluid dynamics of moving fish in a two-dimensional multiparticle collision dynamics model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reid, Daniel A. P.; Hildenbrandt, H.; Hemelrijk, C. K.; Padding, J.T.

2012-01-01

The fluid dynamics of animal locomotion, such as that of an undulating fish, are of great interest to both biologists and engineers. However, experimentally studying these fluid dynamics is difficult and time consuming. Model studies can be of great help because of their simpler and more detailed

Dislocation climb models from atomistic scheme to dislocation dynamics

OpenAIRE

Niu, Xiaohua; Luo, Tao; Lu, Jianfeng; Xiang, Yang

2016-01-01

We develop a mesoscopic dislocation dynamics model for vacancy-assisted dislocation climb by upscalings from a stochastic model on the atomistic scale. Our models incorporate microscopic mechanisms of (i) bulk diffusion of vacancies, (ii) vacancy exchange dynamics between bulk and dislocation core, (iii) vacancy pipe diffusion along the dislocation core, and (iv) vacancy attachment-detachment kinetics at jogs leading to the motion of jogs. Our mesoscopic model consists of the vacancy bulk dif...

Dynamic modeling and dynamical analysis of pump-turbines in S-shaped regions during runaway operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hao; Chen, Diyi; Wu, Changzhi; Wang, Xiangyu; Lee, Jae-Myung; Jung, Kwang-Hyo

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Novel dynamic model of a pump-turbine in S-shaped regions is proposed. • A stability criterion of runaway point is given. • Global dynamic characteristics of the pump-turbine are investigated. • Effects of the slopes of the characteristic curve on the stability are studied. - Abstract: There is a region of pump-turbine operation, often called the S-shaped region, in which one unit rotational speed corresponds to three unit flows or torques. In this paper, the dynamic model of the pump-turbine in S-shaped regions is established by introducing the nonlinear piecewise function of relative parameters. Then, the global bifurcation diagrams of the pump-turbine are presented to analyze its dynamic characteristics in the S-shaped regions. Meanwhile, a stability criterion of runaway point is given based on the established theoretical model. The numerical experiments are conducted on the model and the results are in good agreement with the theoretical analysis. Furthermore, the effects of the characteristic curve slopes on the stability of the pump-turbine are studied by an innovative use of the three-dimensional bifurcation diagrams. Finally, the factors influencing the runaway stability of pump-turbines are also discussed, based on the dynamic analysis.

New method dynamically models hydrocarbon fractionation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kesler, M.G.; Weissbrod, J.M.; Sheth, B.V. [Kesler Engineering, East Brunswick, NJ (United States)

1995-10-01

A new method for calculating distillation column dynamics can be used to model time-dependent effects of independent disturbances for a range of hydrocarbon fractionation. It can model crude atmospheric and vacuum columns, with relatively few equilibrium stages and a large number of components, to C{sub 3} splitters, with few components and up to 300 equilibrium stages. Simulation results are useful for operations analysis, process-control applications and closed-loop control in petroleum, petrochemical and gas processing plants. The method is based on an implicit approach, where the time-dependent variations of inventory, temperatures, liquid and vapor flows and compositions are superimposed at each time step on the steady-state solution. Newton-Raphson (N-R) techniques are then used to simultaneously solve the resulting finite-difference equations of material, equilibrium and enthalpy balances that characterize distillation dynamics. The important innovation is component-aggregation and tray-aggregation to contract the equations without compromising accuracy. This contraction increases the N-R calculations` stability. It also significantly increases calculational speed, which is particularly important in dynamic simulations. This method provides a sound basis for closed-loop, supervisory control of distillation--directly or via multivariable controllers--based on a rigorous, phenomenological column model.

Modelling and Analysis of a New Piezoelectric Dynamic Balance Regulator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mu-Xun Xu

2012-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new piezoelectric dynamic balance regulator, which can be used in motorised spindle systems, is presented. The dynamic balancing adjustment mechanism is driven by an in-plane bending vibration from an annular piezoelectric stator excited by a high-frequency sinusoidal input voltage. This device has different construction, characteristics and operating principles than a conventional balance regulator. In this work, a dynamic model of the regulator is first developed using a detailed analytical method. Thereafter, MATLAB is employed to numerically simulate the relations between the dominant parameters and the characteristics of the regulator based on thedynamic model. Finally, experimental measurements are used to certify the validity of the dynamic model. Consequently, the mathematical model presented and analysed in this paper can be used as a tool for optimising the design of a piezoelectric dynamic balance regulator during steady state operation.

The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model: validation and parameter optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Totz, Sonja; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Petri, Stefan; Flechsig, Michael; Caesar, Levke; Petoukhov, Vladimir; Coumou, Dim

2018-02-01

We present and validate a set of equations for representing the atmosphere's large-scale general circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These dynamical equations have been implemented in Aeolus 1.0, which is a statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) and includes radiative transfer and cloud modules (Coumou et al., 2011; Eliseev et al., 2013). The statistical dynamical approach is computationally efficient and thus enables us to perform climate simulations at multimillennia timescales, which is a prime aim of our model development. Further, this computational efficiency enables us to scan large and high-dimensional parameter space to tune the model parameters, e.g., for sensitivity studies.Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0.We optimize the dynamical core parameter values by tuning all relevant dynamical fields to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (1983-2009) forcing the dynamical core with prescribed surface temperature, surface humidity and cumulus cloud fraction. We test the model's performance in reproducing the seasonal cycle and the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a simulated annealing optimization algorithm, which approximates the global minimum of a high-dimensional function.With non-tuned parameter values, the model performs reasonably in terms of its representation of zonal-mean circulation, planetary waves and storm tracks. The simulated annealing optimization improves in particular the model's representation of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and storm tracks as well as the Hadley circulation.The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower

Model-free inference of direct network interactions from nonlinear collective dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Casadiego, Jose; Nitzan, Mor; Hallerberg, Sarah; Timme, Marc

2017-12-19

The topology of interactions in network dynamical systems fundamentally underlies their function. Accelerating technological progress creates massively available data about collective nonlinear dynamics in physical, biological, and technological systems. Detecting direct interaction patterns from those dynamics still constitutes a major open problem. In particular, current nonlinear dynamics approaches mostly require to know a priori a model of the (often high dimensional) system dynamics. Here we develop a model-independent framework for inferring direct interactions solely from recording the nonlinear collective dynamics generated. Introducing an explicit dependency matrix in combination with a block-orthogonal regression algorithm, the approach works reliably across many dynamical regimes, including transient dynamics toward steady states, periodic and non-periodic dynamics, and chaos. Together with its capabilities to reveal network (two point) as well as hypernetwork (e.g., three point) interactions, this framework may thus open up nonlinear dynamics options of inferring direct interaction patterns across systems where no model is known.

A Generalized Dynamic Model of Geared System: Establishment and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Liu

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In order to make the dynamic characteristic simulation of the ordinary and planetary gears drive more accurate and more efficient , a generalized dynamic model of geared system is established including internal and external mesh gears in this paper. It is used to build a mathematical model, which achieves the auto judgment of the gear mesh state. We do not need to concern about active or passive gears any more, and the complicated power flow analysis can be avoided. With the numerical integration computation, the axis orbits diagram and dynamic gear mesh force characteristic are acquired and the results show that the dynamic response of translational displacement is greater when contacting line direction change is considered, and with the quickly change of direction of contacting line, the amplitude of mesh force would be increased, which easily causes the damage to the gear tooth. Moreover, compared with ordinary gear, dynamic responses of planetary gear would be affected greater by the gear backlash. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the generalized dynamic model and the mathematical model.

The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE): a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

System Dynamics (SD) models are useful for holistic integration of data to evaluate indirect and cumulative effects and inform decisions. Complex SD models can provide key insights into how decisions affect the three interconnected pillars of sustainability. However, the complexi...

Radio-contaminated casualties treatment: an unusual application of technical shelters used on the Ile Longue site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laroche, P.; Rousset, J.; Abiliou, R.; Roe, H.; Berthelot, B.; Lemaire, L.

2002-01-01

While the radio-contaminated casualties treatment center (CTBRC) of the military hospital of Brest is reconstructed an unusual structure has been built on the Ile Longue site. Technical shelters (ETM) of the French military health service have been put together in order to constitute the CTBRC/ETM. This structure is adapted to the necessities of the nuclear site of Brest. First we explain the organization of the medical intervention in case of a nuclear accident; then we describe the functions of the CTBRC. People from hospital and medical teams of the nuclear oceanic French forces (FOST) take part in utilization, maintenance, training according to a particular protocol. (author)

The rules and the chance in Basketball: a historical approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

António Paulo Ferreira

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper intends to link positive influence of the evolution in rules and the rising reduction casualty with the basketball game dynamics. Throughout a metaphoric perspective it assumes that casualty factors were somehow covered up since the game invention and they were somehow sleepy during the game evolution. This metaphoric point is justified with an historical analysis to Naismith’s goals, presuming the game was created and reinforced by the evolutionary trends of his rules across the time. It was concluded that casualty role in basketball performance was controlled by an evolutionary direction, where the value of merit, ability and expertise are seen as determinants of basketball dynamics.

A model of nematode dynamics in the Westerschelde estuary

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, J.; Vincx, M.; Herman, P.M.J.

1996-01-01

We developed a time dynamic model to investigate the temporal dynamics of nematode community in the brackish zone of the Westerschelde Estuary. The biomass of four nematode feeding groups observed from March 1991 to February 1992 is used to calibrate the model. Using environmental data as the input,

Stochastic dynamic modeling of regular and slow earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Aso, N.; Ando, R.; Ide, S.

2017-12-01

Both regular and slow earthquakes are slip phenomena on plate boundaries and are simulated by a (quasi-)dynamic modeling [Liu and Rice, 2005]. In these numerical simulations, spatial heterogeneity is usually considered not only for explaining real physical properties but also for evaluating the stability of the calculations or the sensitivity of the results on the condition. However, even though we discretize the model space with small grids, heterogeneity at smaller scales than the grid size is not considered in the models with deterministic governing equations. To evaluate the effect of heterogeneity at the smaller scales we need to consider stochastic interactions between slip and stress in a dynamic modeling. Tidal stress is known to trigger or affect both regular and slow earthquakes [Yabe et al., 2015; Ide et al., 2016], and such an external force with fluctuation can also be considered as a stochastic external force. A healing process of faults may also be stochastic, so we introduce stochastic friction law. In the present study, we propose a stochastic dynamic model to explain both regular and slow earthquakes. We solve mode III problem, which corresponds to the rupture propagation along the strike direction. We use BIEM (boundary integral equation method) scheme to simulate slip evolution, but we add stochastic perturbations in the governing equations, which is usually written in a deterministic manner. As the simplest type of perturbations, we adopt Gaussian deviations in the formulation of the slip-stress kernel, external force, and friction. By increasing the amplitude of perturbations of the slip-stress kernel, we reproduce complicated rupture process of regular earthquakes including unilateral and bilateral ruptures. By perturbing external force, we reproduce slow rupture propagation at a scale of km/day. The slow propagation generated by a combination of fast interaction at S-wave velocity is analogous to the kinetic theory of gasses: thermal

Researches on modeling of nuclear power plants for dynamic response analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watabe, M.; Fukuzawa, R.; Chiba, O.; Toritani, T.

1983-01-01

The authors tried to establish the rational and economical model due to the vertical component considering the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects and the flexibility of the mat foundation. Three types of models were introduced. 1) Finite element model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations with the finite element model were performed in which the mat foundation was treated rigid and elastic body. The dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated based on the condition that soil was semiinfinite elastic medium. 2) Sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model. Two cases of response analyses due to harmonic excitations were performed to simulate the dynamic characteristics of the finite element models mentioned above using the sophisticated mass-spring-dashpot model, in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were evaluated with the same procedure applied to the finite element model. 3) Simplified mass-spring-dashpot model. There were introduced three types of the simplified mass-spring-dashpot model in which the dynamic soil-structure interaction effects were simplified. Response analyses due to harmonic excitations and earthquake ground motions were performed in order to establish the rational and economical model. (orig./HP)

Dynamic data analysis modeling data with differential equations

CERN Document Server

Ramsay, James

2017-01-01

This text focuses on the use of smoothing methods for developing and estimating differential equations following recent developments in functional data analysis and building on techniques described in Ramsay and Silverman (2005) Functional Data Analysis. The central concept of a dynamical system as a buffer that translates sudden changes in input into smooth controlled output responses has led to applications of previously analyzed data, opening up entirely new opportunities for dynamical systems. The technical level has been kept low so that those with little or no exposure to differential equations as modeling objects can be brought into this data analysis landscape. There are already many texts on the mathematical properties of ordinary differential equations, or dynamic models, and there is a large literature distributed over many fields on models for real world processes consisting of differential equations. However, a researcher interested in fitting such a model to data, or a statistician interested in...

The Financial Accounting Model from a System Dynamics' Perspective

OpenAIRE

Melse, Eric

2006-01-01

This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal conflict that resides in a stock and flow model. Through formal analysis the accounting equation is redefined as a cybernetic model by expressing the temporal and dynamic properties of its terms. Articu...

Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger

In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze and forec......In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze...... and forecast interest rates of different maturities. The structure of oil futures resembles the structure of interest rates and this motivates the use of this model for our purposes. The data set is vast and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model allows for a significant dimension reduction by introducing three...

Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.

2009-01-01

The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or

Badlands: A parallel basin and landscape dynamics model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Salles

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Over more than three decades, a number of numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs have been developed to study the combined effects of climate, sea-level, tectonics and sediments on Earth surface dynamics. Most of them are written in efficient programming languages, but often cannot be used on parallel architectures. Here, I present a LEM which ports a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution into a distributed memory parallel environment. Badlands (acronym for BAsin anD LANdscape DynamicS is an open-source, flexible, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales.

Dynamics of dilute disordered models: A solvable case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semerjian, Guilhem; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.

2003-09-01

We study the dynamics of a dilute spherical model with two body interactions and random exchanges. We analyze the Langevin equations and we introduce a functional variational method to study generic dilute disordered models. A crossover temperature replaces the dynamic transition of the fully-connected limit. There are two asymptotic regimes, one determined by the central band of the spectral density of the interactions and a slower one determined by localized configurations on sites with high connectivity. We confront the behavior of this model to the one of real glasses. (author)

Dynamic modeling, simulation and control of energy generation

CERN Document Server

Vepa, Ranjan

2013-01-01

This book addresses the core issues involved in the dynamic modeling, simulation and control of a selection of energy systems such as gas turbines, wind turbines, fuel cells and batteries. The principles of modeling and control could be applied to other non-convention methods of energy generation such as solar energy and wave energy.A central feature of Dynamic Modeling, Simulation and Control of Energy Generation is that it brings together diverse topics in thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, heat transfer, electro-chemistry, electrical networks and electrical machines and focuses on their appli

Creation and Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Dynamic Weighing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhi-Ling XU

2014-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, it is modeled by using ADAMS to portable axle load meter of dynamic weighing system, controlling a single variable simulation weighing process, getting the simulation weighing data under the different speed and weight; simultaneously using portable weighing system with the same parameters to achieve the actual measurement, comparative analysis the simulation results under the same conditions, at 30 km/h or less, the simulation value and the measured value do not differ by more than 5 %, it is not only to verify the reliability of dynamic weighing model, but also to create possible for improving algorithm study efficiency by using dynamic weighing model simulation.

A general science-based framework for dynamical spatio-temporal models

Science.gov (United States)

Wikle, C.K.; Hooten, M.B.

2010-01-01

Spatio-temporal statistical models are increasingly being used across a wide variety of scientific disciplines to describe and predict spatially-explicit processes that evolve over time. Correspondingly, in recent years there has been a significant amount of research on new statistical methodology for such models. Although descriptive models that approach the problem from the second-order (covariance) perspective are important, and innovative work is being done in this regard, many real-world processes are dynamic, and it can be more efficient in some cases to characterize the associated spatio-temporal dependence by the use of dynamical models. The chief challenge with the specification of such dynamical models has been related to the curse of dimensionality. Even in fairly simple linear, first-order Markovian, Gaussian error settings, statistical models are often over parameterized. Hierarchical models have proven invaluable in their ability to deal to some extent with this issue by allowing dependency among groups of parameters. In addition, this framework has allowed for the specification of science based parameterizations (and associated prior distributions) in which classes of deterministic dynamical models (e. g., partial differential equations (PDEs), integro-difference equations (IDEs), matrix models, and agent-based models) are used to guide specific parameterizations. Most of the focus for the application of such models in statistics has been in the linear case. The problems mentioned above with linear dynamic models are compounded in the case of nonlinear models. In this sense, the need for coherent and sensible model parameterizations is not only helpful, it is essential. Here, we present an overview of a framework for incorporating scientific information to motivate dynamical spatio-temporal models. First, we illustrate the methodology with the linear case. We then develop a general nonlinear spatio-temporal framework that we call general quadratic

Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

Science.gov (United States)

Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

2002-03-01

We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

Modelization and numerical simulation of atmospheric aerosols dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Debry, Edouard

2004-01-01

Chemical-transport models are now able to describe in a realistic way gaseous pollutants behavior in the atmosphere. Nevertheless atmospheric pollution also exists as a fine suspended particles, called aerosols which interact with gaseous phase, solar radiation, and have their own dynamic behavior. The goal of this thesis is the modelization and numerical simulation of the General Dynamic Equation of aerosols (GDE). Part I deals with some theoretical aspects of aerosol modelization. Part II is dedicated to the building of one size resolved aerosol model (SIREAM). In part III we perform the reduction of this model in order to use it in dispersion models as POLAIR3D. Several modelization issues are still opened: organic aerosol matter, externally mixed aerosols, coupling with turbulent mixing, and nano-particles. (author) [fr

Modeling and identification in structural dynamics

OpenAIRE

Jayakumar, Paramsothy

1987-01-01

Analytical modeling of structures subjected to ground motions is an important aspect of fully dynamic earthquake-resistant design. In general, linear models are only sufficient to represent structural responses resulting from earthquake motions of small amplitudes. However, the response of structures during strong ground motions is highly nonlinear and hysteretic. System identification is an effective tool for developing analytical models from experimental data. Testing of full-scale prot...

Record Dynamics and the Parking Lot Model for granular dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan

Also known for its application to granular compaction (E. Ben-Naim et al., Physica D, 1998), the Parking Lot Model (PLM) describes the random parking of identical cars in a strip with no marked bays. In the thermally activated version considered, cars can be removed at an energy cost and, in thermal equilibrium, their average density increases as temperature decreases. However, equilibration at high density becomes exceedingly slow and the system enters an aging regime induced by a kinematic constraint, the fact that parked cars may not overlap. As parking an extra car reduces the available free space,the next parking event is even harder to achieve. Records in the number of parked cars mark the salient features of the dynamics and are shown to be well described by the log-Poisson statistics known from other glassy systems with record dynamics. Clusters of cars whose positions must be rearranged to make the next insertion possible have a length scale which grows logarithmically with age, while their life-time grows exponentially with size. The implications for a recent cluster model of colloidal dynamics,(S. Boettcher and P. Sibani, J. Phys.: Cond. Matter, 2011 N. Becker et al., J. Phys.: Cond. Matter, 2014) are discussed. Support rom the Villum Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.

Modeling initial contact dynamics during ambulation with dynamic simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Andrew R; Wang, Mei; Smith, Peter A; Harris, Gerald F

2007-04-01

Ankle-foot orthoses are frequently used interventions to correct pathological gait. Their effects on the kinematics and kinetics of the proximal joints are of great interest when prescribing ankle-foot orthoses to specific patient groups. Mathematical Dynamic Model (MADYMO) is developed to simulate motor vehicle crash situations and analyze tissue injuries of the occupants based multibody dynamic theories. Joint kinetics output from an inverse model were perturbed and input to the forward model to examine the effects of changes in the internal sagittal ankle moment on knee and hip kinematics following heel strike. Increasing the internal ankle moment (augmentation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus contraction) produced less pronounced changes in kinematic results at the hip, knee and ankle than decreasing the moment (attenuation, equivalent to gastroc-soleus relaxation). Altering the internal ankle moment produced two distinctly different kinematic curve morphologies at the hip. Decreased internal ankle moments increased hip flexion, peaking at roughly 8% of the gait cycle. Increasing internal ankle moments decreased hip flexion to a lesser degree, and approached normal at the same point in the gait cycle. Increasing the internal ankle moment produced relatively small, well-behaved extension-biased kinematic results at the knee. Decreasing the internal ankle moment produced more substantial changes in knee kinematics towards flexion that increased with perturbation magnitude. Curve morphologies were similar to those at the hip. Immediately following heel strike, kinematic results at the ankle showed movement in the direction of the internal moment perturbation. Increased internal moments resulted in kinematic patterns that rapidly approach normal after initial differences. When the internal ankle moment was decreased, differences from normal were much greater and did not rapidly decrease. This study shows that MADYMO can be successfully applied to accomplish forward