Yeh, H.
2007-12-01
More than 4500 deaths by tsunamis were recorded in the decade of 1990. For example, the 1992 Flores Tsunami in Indonesia took away at least 1712 lives, and more than 2182 people were victimized by the 1998 Papua New Guinea Tsunami. Such staggering death toll has been totally overshadowed by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that claimed more than 220,000 lives. Unlike hurricanes that are often evaluated by economic losses, death count is the primary measure for tsunami hazard. It is partly because tsunamis kill more people owing to its short lead- time for warning. Although exact death tallies are not available for most of the tsunami events, there exist gender and age discriminations in tsunami casualties. Significant gender difference in the victims of the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami was attributed to women's social norms and role behavior, as well as cultural bias toward women's inability to swim. Here we develop a rational casualty model based on humans' limit to withstand the tsunami flows. The application to simple tsunami runup cases demonstrates that biological and physiological disadvantages also make a significant difference in casualty rate. It further demonstrates that the gender and age discriminations in casualties become most pronounced when tsunami is marginally strong and the difference tends to diminish as tsunami strength increases.
Yu, Wenya; Lv, Yipeng; Hu, Chaoqun; Liu, Xu; Chen, Haiping; Xue, Chen; Zhang, Lulu
2018-01-01
Emergency medical system for mass casualty incidents (EMS-MCIs) is a global issue. However, China lacks such studies extremely, which cannot meet the requirement of rapid decision-support system. This study aims to realize modeling EMS-MCIs in Shanghai, to improve mass casualty incident (MCI) rescue efficiency in China, and to provide a possible method of making rapid rescue decisions during MCIs. This study established a system dynamics (SD) model of EMS-MCIs using the Vensim DSS program. Intervention scenarios were designed as adjusting scales of MCIs, allocation of ambulances, allocation of emergency medical staff, and efficiency of organization and command. Mortality increased with the increasing scale of MCIs, medical rescue capability of hospitals was relatively good, but the efficiency of organization and command was poor, and the prehospital time was too long. Mortality declined significantly when increasing ambulances and improving the efficiency of organization and command; triage and on-site first-aid time were shortened if increasing the availability of emergency medical staff. The effect was the most evident when 2,000 people were involved in MCIs; however, the influence was very small under the scale of 5,000 people. The keys to decrease the mortality of MCIs were shortening the prehospital time and improving the efficiency of organization and command. For small-scale MCIs, improving the utilization rate of health resources was important in decreasing the mortality. For large-scale MCIs, increasing the number of ambulances and emergency medical professionals was the core to decrease prehospital time and mortality. For super-large-scale MCIs, increasing health resources was the premise.
Modeling Casualty Sustainment During Peacekeeping Operations
2003-10-09
Medicine, 1999, 164(8), Supplement. 23. Blood CG, Anderson ME. The Battle for Hue: Casualty and Disease Rates during Urban Warfare, Military Medicine...NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER MODELING CASUALTY SUSTAINMENT DURING PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS G. J. Walker C. G. Bloodl...Report No. 03-21 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH
Human casualties in earthquakes: Modelling and mitigation
Spence, R.J.S.; So, E.K.M.
2011-01-01
Earthquake risk modelling is needed for the planning of post-event emergency operations, for the development of insurance schemes, for the planning of mitigation measures in the existing building stock, and for the development of appropriate building regulations; in all of these applications estimates of casualty numbers are essential. But there are many questions about casualty estimation which are still poorly understood. These questions relate to the causes and nature of the injuries and deaths, and the extent to which they can be quantified. This paper looks at the evidence on these questions from recent studies. It then reviews casualty estimation models available, and finally compares the performance of some casualty models in making rapid post-event casualty estimates in recent earthquakes.
Modelling Mass Casualty Decontamination Systems Informed by Field Exercise Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard Amlôt
2012-10-01
Full Text Available In the event of a large-scale chemical release in the UK decontamination of ambulant casualties would be undertaken by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS. The aim of this study was to track the movement of volunteer casualties at two mass decontamination field exercises using passive Radio Frequency Identification tags and detection mats that were placed at pre-defined locations. The exercise data were then used to inform a computer model of the FRS component of the mass decontamination process. Having removed all clothing and having showered, the re-dressing (termed re-robing of casualties was found to be a bottleneck in the mass decontamination process during both exercises. Computer simulations showed that increasing the capacity of each lane of the re-robe section to accommodate 10 rather than five casualties would be optimal in general, but that a capacity of 15 might be required to accommodate vulnerable individuals. If the duration of the shower was decreased from three minutes to one minute then a per lane re-robe capacity of 20 might be necessary to maximise the throughput of casualties. In conclusion, one practical enhancement to the FRS response may be to provide at least one additional re-robe section per mass decontamination unit.
Modelling Mass Casualty Decontamination Systems Informed by Field Exercise Data
Egan, Joseph R.; Amlôt, Richard
2012-01-01
In the event of a large-scale chemical release in the UK decontamination of ambulant casualties would be undertaken by the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS). The aim of this study was to track the movement of volunteer casualties at two mass decontamination field exercises using passive Radio Frequency Identification tags and detection mats that were placed at pre-defined locations. The exercise data were then used to inform a computer model of the FRS component of the mass decontamination process. Having removed all clothing and having showered, the re-dressing (termed re-robing) of casualties was found to be a bottleneck in the mass decontamination process during both exercises. Computer simulations showed that increasing the capacity of each lane of the re-robe section to accommodate 10 rather than five casualties would be optimal in general, but that a capacity of 15 might be required to accommodate vulnerable individuals. If the duration of the shower was decreased from three minutes to one minute then a per lane re-robe capacity of 20 might be necessary to maximise the throughput of casualties. In conclusion, one practical enhancement to the FRS response may be to provide at least one additional re-robe section per mass decontamination unit. PMID:23202768
Updates to Blast Injury Criteria Models for Nuclear Casualty Estimation
2015-12-01
based Casualty Assessment (ORCA) software package contains models which track penetrating fragments and determine the likelihood of injury caused by the...pedestrian and bicycle accidents,” The Institute of Traffic Accident Investigators. Proceedings of the 5th Interantional Conference: 17th and 18th
Implications for modeling casualty sustainment during peacekeeping operations.
Blood, Christopher G; Zhang, Jinjin; Walker, G Jay
2002-10-01
Projections of the casualties expected during peacekeeping operations allow medical planners to assess in advance the medical resources needed to support such operations. Data detailing fatalities incurred in previous peacekeeping operations were extracted from several U.N. sources. From these data, rates of killed-in-action were computed for the deployed forces. One hundred eighty-eight peacekeeping incidents in which casualties were sustained were also examined to derive wounded-in-action rates. The estimated mean wounded-in-action rate for these operations was 3.16 per 1,000 strength per year; the estimated wounded-in-action rate for individual operations ranged from 0.49 to 12.50. There were an average of 3.8 wounded and 0.86 killed in the 188 casualty incidents examined. Thirty-eight percent of the wounds were described as serious. The casualty incidence derived in this study can provide a basis for estimating the casualties likely in future peacekeeping operations.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urrutia, J D; Bautista, L A; Baccay, E B
2014-01-01
The aim of this study was to develop mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties such as death, number of injured persons, affected families and total cost of damage. To quantify the direct damages from earthquakes to human beings and properties given the magnitude, intensity, depth of focus, location of epicentre and time duration, the regression models were made. The researchers formulated models through regression analysis using matrices and used α = 0.01. The study considered thirty destructive earthquakes that hit the Philippines from the inclusive years 1968 to 2012. Relevant data about these said earthquakes were obtained from Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology. Data on damages and casualties were gathered from the records of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council. This study will be of great value in emergency planning, initiating and updating programs for earthquake hazard reduction in the Philippines, which is an earthquake-prone country.
Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul S.; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike
2011-01-01
Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.
Development of a Fuzzy Model for Iranian Marine Casualties Management
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ali Moradi
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Marine Accident investigation multidimensional and complex, so this study aimed to provide a systematic approach to determining the degree of the most influential parameters (dimensions in accident occurrence in order to improve marine safety in the direction of good governance. In this paper, two-phase procedures are proposed. The first stage utilizes the fuzzy Delphi method (FDM to determine the critical factors of Marine Accident Investigation by interviewing the pertinent authorities. In the second stage, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP is applied to pair fuzzy numbers as measurable indices and finally to rank by degree each influential criterion within accident investigation. This study considers 1 goal, 4 aspects, and 31 criteria (parameters and establishes a ranking model that allows decision-makers to assess the prior ordering of reasons and sort by the most effective parameters involved in marine accident occurrence. The empirical study indicated that People, working and living conditions, effect is considered the highest ranking aspect, and Ability, skills, and knowledge of workers is considered the most important evaluation criterion overall by experts. These results were derived from fuzzy Delphi analytical hierarchy processing (FDAHP. A demonstration of the prior ordering of accident-causing parameters by authorities was addressed as well. Therefore, ranking the priority of every influential criterion (parameter will help marine transportation decision makers emphasize the areas in which to improve in order to prevent future marine accidents.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bentley, P.R.
1981-12-01
The determination of blast overpressures and fallout radiation doses at points on a sufficiently fine grid, for any part or for the whole of the UK, and for any postulated attack, is an essential element in the systematic assessment of casualties, the estimation of numbers of homeless, and the evaluation of life-saving measures generally. Models are described which provide the required blast and dose values and which are intended to supersede existing models which were introduced in 1971. The factors which affect blast and, more particularly, dose values are discussed, and the way in which various factors are modelled is described. The models are incorporated into separate computer programs which are described, the outputs of which are stored on magnetic tape for subsequent use as required. (author)
Balbus, J. M.; Kirsch, T.; Mitrani-Reiser, J.
2017-12-01
Over recent decades, natural disasters and mass-casualty events in United States have repeatedly revealed the serious consequences of health care facility vulnerability and the subsequent ability to deliver care for the affected people. Advances in predictive modeling and vulnerability assessment for health care facility failure, integrated infrastructure, and extreme weather events have now enabled a more rigorous scientific approach to evaluating health care system vulnerability and assessing impacts of natural and human disasters as well as the value of specific interventions. Concurrent advances in computing capacity also allow, for the first time, full integration of these multiple individual models, along with the modeling of population behaviors and mass casualty responses during a disaster. A team of federal and academic investigators led by the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH) is develoing a platform for integrating extreme event forecasts, health risk/impact assessment and population simulations, critical infrastructure (electrical, water, transportation, communication) impact and response models, health care facility-specific vulnerability and failure assessments, and health system/patient flow responses. The integration of these models is intended to develop much greater understanding of critical tipping points in the vulnerability of health systems during natural and human disasters and build an evidence base for specific interventions. Development of such a modeling platform will greatly facilitate the assessment of potential concurrent or sequential catastrophic events, such as a terrorism act following a severe heat wave or hurricane. This presentation will highlight the development of this modeling platform as well as applications not just for the US health system, but also for international science-based disaster risk reduction efforts, such as the Sendai Framework and the WHO SMART hospital project.
Eating Order: A 13-Week Trust Model Class for Dieting Casualties
Jackson, Elizabeth G.
2008-01-01
Chronic dieting distorts eating behaviors and causes weight escalation. Desperation about losing weight results in pursuit of extreme weight loss measures. Instead of offering yet another diet, nutrition educators can teach chronic dieters (dieting casualties) to develop eating competence. Eating Order, a 13-week class for chronic dieters based on…
A third-party casualty risk model for unmanned aircraft system operations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melnyk, Richard; Schrage, Daniel; Volovoi, Vitali; Jimenez, Hernando
2014-01-01
Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) integration into the National Airspace System (NAS) is an important goal of many members of the Aerospace community including stakeholders such as the military, law enforcement and potential civil users of UAS. However, integration efforts have remained relatively limited due to safety concerns. Due to the nature of UAS, safety predictions must look beyond the system itself and take the operating environment into account. A framework that can link UAS reliability and physical characteristics to the effects on the bystander population is required. This study proposes using a Target Level of Safety approach and an event tree format, populated with data from existing studies that share characteristics of UAS crashes to enable casualty prediction for UAS operations. - Highlights: • A framework for predicting bystander casualties caused by UAS mishaps. • A method to facilitate UAS integration by linking system reliability to system safety. • A tool to help develop UAS certification standards
Li, Shuang; Yu, Xiaohui; Zhang, Yanjuan; Zhai, Changhai
2018-01-01
Casualty prediction in a building during earthquakes benefits to implement the economic loss estimation in the performance-based earthquake engineering methodology. Although after-earthquake observations reveal that the evacuation has effects on the quantity of occupant casualties during earthquakes, few current studies consider occupant movements in the building in casualty prediction procedures. To bridge this knowledge gap, a numerical simulation method using refined cellular automata model is presented, which can describe various occupant dynamic behaviors and building dimensions. The simulation on the occupant evacuation is verified by a recorded evacuation process from a school classroom in real-life 2013 Ya'an earthquake in China. The occupant casualties in the building under earthquakes are evaluated by coupling the building collapse process simulation by finite element method, the occupant evacuation simulation, and the casualty occurrence criteria with time and space synchronization. A case study of casualty prediction in a building during an earthquake is provided to demonstrate the effect of occupant movements on casualty prediction.
Population and energy elasticity of tornado casualties
Fricker, Tyler; Elsner, James B.; Jagger, Thomas H.
2017-04-01
Tornadoes are capable of catastrophic destruction and mass casualties, but there are yet no estimates of how sensitive the number of casualties are to changes in the number of people in harm's way or to changes in tornado energy. Here the relationship between tornado casualties (deaths and injuries), population, and energy dissipation is quantified using the economic concept of "elasticity." Records of casualties from individual tornadoes over the period 2007-2015 are fit to a regression model. The coefficient on the population term (population elasticity) indicates that a doubling in population increases the casualty rate by 21% [(17, 24)%, 95% credible interval]. The coefficient on the energy term (energy elasticity) indicates that a doubling in energy dissipation leads to a 33% [(30, 35)%, 95% credible interval] increase in the casualty rate. The difference in elasticity values show that on average, changes in energy dissipation have been relatively more important in explaining tornado casualties than changes in population. Assuming no changes in warning effectiveness or mitigation efforts, these elasticity estimates can be used to project changes in casualties given the known population trends and possible trends in tornado activity.
Armored vehicle crew casualties.
Dougherty, P J
1990-09-01
The use of armored vehicles since the First World War has created a subset of casualties with a different epidemiology than infantry soldier casualties. The preponderance of armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) in the world's armies make their use in a future war likely. The purpose of this paper is to review the nature of possible injuries to crewmembers of these vehicles by historical and experimental data. Injuries to armored vehicle crewmembers are characterized by a large number of burn casualties, a larger percentage of fractures and traumatic amputations with extremity wounds, and a higher mortality when compared with infantry footsoldier combat casualty statistics.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Chesser, Susan G
2009-01-01
...." A detailed casualty summary that includes data on deaths by cause, as well as statistics on soldiers wounded in action, is available at DoD's web site at http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/CASUALTY/castop.htm.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Chesser, Susan G
2008-01-01
...." A detailed casualty summary that includes data on deaths by cause, as well as statistics on soldiers wounded in action, is available at the following DoD website: [http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/CASUALTY/castop.htm].
Scheulen, James J; Thanner, Meridith H; Hsu, Edbert B; Latimer, Christian K; Brown, Jeffrey; Kelen, Gabor D
2009-02-01
Few tools exist that are sufficiently robust to allow manipulation of key input variables to produce casualty estimates resulting from high-consequence events reflecting local or specific regions of concern. This article describes the design and utility of a computerized modeling simulation tool, Electronic Mass Casualty Assessment and Planning Scenarios (EMCAPS), developed to have broad application across emergency management and public health fields as part of a catastrophic events preparedness planning process. As a scalable, flexible tool, EMCAPS is intended to support emergency preparedness planning efforts at multiple levels ranging from local health systems to regional and state public health departments to Metropolitan Medical Response System jurisdictions. Designed around the subset of the National Planning Scenarios with health effects, advanced by the US Department of Homeland Security, the tool's platform is supported by the detailed descriptions and readily retrievable evidence-based assumptions of each scenario. The EMCAPS program allows the user to manipulate key scenario-based input variables that would best reflect the region or locale of interest. Inputs include population density, vulnerabilities, event size, and potency, as applicable. Using these inputs, EMCAPS generates the anticipated population-based health surge influence of the hazard scenario. Casualty estimates are stratified by injury severity/types where appropriate. Outputs are graph and table tabulations of surge estimates. The data can then be used to assess and tailor response capabilities for specific jurisdictions, organizations, and health care systems. EMCAPS may be downloaded without cost from http://www.hopkins-cepar.org/EMCAPS/EMCAPS.html as shareware.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wenzel, Tom
2011-03-20
In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk could differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Torben
2011-01-01
model structure suggested by University of Lund the WP4 leader. This particular model structure has the advantages that it fits better into the control design frame work used by WP3-4 compared to the model structures previously developed in WP2. The different model structures are first summarised....... Then issues dealing with optimal experimental design is considered. Finally the parameters are estimated in the chosen static and dynamic models and a validation is performed. Two of the static models, one of them the additive model, explains the data well. In case of dynamic models the suggested additive...
Dynamic Latent Classification Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre
Monitoring a complex process often involves keeping an eye on hundreds or thousands of sensors to determine whether or not the process is under control. We have been working with dynamic data from an oil production facility in the North sea, where unstable situations should be identified as soon...... as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...... in the process as well as modeling dependences between attributes....
[Triage protocols for mass casualty incidents : An overview 30 years after START].
Streckbein, S; Kohlmann, T; Luxen, J; Birkholz, T; Prückner, S
2016-08-01
Since the publication of the first mass casualty triage protocol approximately 30 years ago, numerous adaptions and alternatives have been introduced and are currently in use throughout the world. This variety may represent a challenge for the cooperation between emergency medical providers and the interoperability of emergency medical services often required during mass casualty incidents. To enhance cooperation and interoperability a standardization of triage protocols is required. This survey was carried out in order to identify and characterize published triage protocols on national and international levels. Furthermore, evidence for validation of the identified triage algorithms was discussed and recommendations for standardization of triage protocols are given. In a systematic literature search 59 relevant articles were identified and evaluated with respect to the given objectives. A total of 12 triage concepts were identified and characterized which are categorized according to the basic principle. The endpoints of the studies, the chosen observation units and the mode of data collection were discussed with respect to their impact on validation. Furthermore, the impact of the degree and dynamics of system capacity overload, which are pathognomonic for mass casualty incidents, were discussed. There is not sufficient evidence to declare one of the triage protocols superior in all aspects to the others and no triage protocol has been implemented on a comprehensive level in Germany. In order to initialize a national or regional convergence process towards an interoperability of emergency medical services, the model uniform core criteria for mass casualty triage approach has been identified as being appropriate.
Marine Casualty and Pollution Data for Researchers
Department of Homeland Security — The Marine Casualty and Pollution Data files provide details about marine casualty and pollution incidents investigated by Coast Guard Offices throughout the United...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nishimura, Hiroshi.
1993-05-01
Object-Oriented Programming has been used extensively to model the LBL Advanced Light Source 1.5 GeV electron storage ring. This paper is on the present status of the class library construction with emphasis on a dynamic modeling
Models for Dynamic Applications
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Heitzig, Martina
2011-01-01
This chapter covers aspects of the dynamic modelling and simulation of several complex operations that include a controlled blending tank, a direct methanol fuel cell that incorporates a multiscale model, a fluidised bed reactor, a standard chemical reactor and finally a polymerisation reactor...
Bun, M.J.G.; Sarafidis, V.
2013-01-01
This Chapter reviews the recent literature on dynamic panel data models with a short time span and a large cross-section. Throughout the discussion we considerlinear models with additional endogenous covariates. First we give a broad overview of available inference methods placing emphasis on GMM.
Salinelli, Ernesto
2014-01-01
This book provides an introduction to the analysis of discrete dynamical systems. The content is presented by an unitary approach that blends the perspective of mathematical modeling together with the ones of several discipline as Mathematical Analysis, Linear Algebra, Numerical Analysis, Systems Theory and Probability. After a preliminary discussion of several models, the main tools for the study of linear and non-linear scalar dynamical systems are presented, paying particular attention to the stability analysis. Linear difference equations are studied in detail and an elementary introduction of Z and Discrete Fourier Transform is presented. A whole chapter is devoted to the study of bifurcations and chaotic dynamics. One-step vector-valued dynamical systems are the subject of three chapters, where the reader can find the applications to positive systems, Markov chains, networks and search engines. The book is addressed mainly to students in Mathematics, Engineering, Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Economic...
Ghanem, Bernard
2013-01-01
This paper proposes the problem of modeling video sequences of dynamic swarms (DSs). We define a DS as a large layout of stochastically repetitive spatial configurations of dynamic objects (swarm elements) whose motions exhibit local spatiotemporal interdependency and stationarity, i.e., the motions are similar in any small spatiotemporal neighborhood. Examples of DS abound in nature, e.g., herds of animals and flocks of birds. To capture the local spatiotemporal properties of the DS, we present a probabilistic model that learns both the spatial layout of swarm elements (based on low-level image segmentation) and their joint dynamics that are modeled as linear transformations. To this end, a spatiotemporal neighborhood is associated with each swarm element, in which local stationarity is enforced both spatially and temporally. We assume that the prior on the swarm dynamics is distributed according to an MRF in both space and time. Embedding this model in a MAP framework, we iterate between learning the spatial layout of the swarm and its dynamics. We learn the swarm transformations using ICM, which iterates between estimating these transformations and updating their distribution in the spatiotemporal neighborhoods. We demonstrate the validity of our method by conducting experiments on real and synthetic video sequences. Real sequences of birds, geese, robot swarms, and pedestrians evaluate the applicability of our model to real world data. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Casualty Risk From Tornadoes in the United States is Highest in Urbanized Areas Across the Mid South
Fricker, T.; Elsner, J.
2017-12-01
Risk factors for tornado casualties are well known. Less understood is how and to what degree these determinants, after controlling for strength and urban density, vary spatially and temporally. Here we fit models to casualty counts from all casualty-producing tornadoes since 1995 in order to quantify the interactions between urbanization and energy on casualty rates. Results from the models show that the more urbanized areas of the Mid South are substantively and significantly more vulnerable to casualties from tornadoes than elsewhere in the country. Casualty rates are significantly higher on the weekend for tornadoes in this region. Night and day casualty rates are similar regardless of where they occur. Higher vulnerability to casualties from tornadoes occurring in more urbanized areas correspond significantly with greater percentages of elderly people. Many of the micro cities in the Mid South are threatened by tornadoes annually and this threat might potentially be exacerbated by climate change.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Borregaard, Michael K.; Matthews, Thomas J.; Whittaker, Robert James
2016-01-01
Aim: Island biogeography focuses on understanding the processes that underlie a set of well-described patterns on islands, but it lacks a unified theoretical framework for integrating these processes. The recently proposed general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography offers a step...... towards this goal. Here, we present an analysis of causality within the GDM and investigate its potential for the further development of island biogeographical theory. Further, we extend the GDM to include subduction-based island arcs and continental fragment islands. Location: A conceptual analysis...... dynamics of distinct island types are predicted to lead to markedly different evolutionary dynamics. This sets the stage for a more predictive theory incorporating the processes governing temporal dynamics of species diversity on islands....
A markov decision process model for the optimal dispatch of military medical evacuation assets.
Keneally, Sean K; Robbins, Matthew J; Lunday, Brian J
2016-06-01
We develop a Markov decision process (MDP) model to examine aerial military medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) dispatch policies in a combat environment. The problem of deciding which aeromedical asset to dispatch to each service request is complicated by the threat conditions at the service locations and the priority class of each casualty event. We assume requests for MEDEVAC support arrive sequentially, with the location and the priority of each casualty known upon initiation of the request. The United States military uses a 9-line MEDEVAC request system to classify casualties as being one of three priority levels: urgent, priority, and routine. Multiple casualties can be present at a single casualty event, with the highest priority casualty determining the priority level for the casualty event. Moreover, an armed escort may be required depending on the threat level indicated by the 9-line MEDEVAC request. The proposed MDP model indicates how to optimally dispatch MEDEVAC helicopters to casualty events in order to maximize steady-state system utility. The utility gained from servicing a specific request depends on the number of casualties, the priority class for each of the casualties, and the locations of both the servicing ambulatory helicopter and casualty event. Instances of the dispatching problem are solved using a relative value iteration dynamic programming algorithm. Computational examples are used to investigate optimal dispatch policies under different threat situations and armed escort delays; the examples are based on combat scenarios in which United States Army MEDEVAC units support ground operations in Afghanistan.
Malafeyev, O. A.; Nemnyugin, S. A.; Rylow, D.; Kolpak, E. P.; Awasthi, Achal
2017-07-01
The corruption dynamics is analyzed by means of the lattice model which is similar to the three-dimensional Ising model. Agents placed at nodes of the corrupt network periodically choose to perfom or not to perform the act of corruption at gain or loss while making decisions based on the process history. The gain value and its dynamics are defined by means of the Markov stochastic process modelling with parameters established in accordance with the influence of external and individual factors on the agent's gain. The model is formulated algorithmically and is studied by means of the computer simulation. Numerical results are obtained which demonstrate asymptotic behaviour of the corruption network under various conditions.
Dynamic wake meandering modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Bingöl, Ferhat
We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however......, are an integrated part the model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. Two computationally low cost models are developed for this purpose. The character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed......, concerning both flow characteristics and turbine load characteristics. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the dynamic wake meandering approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power– and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Colanero, K.; Chu, M.-C.
2002-01-01
We study a dynamical chiral bag model, in which massless fermions are confined within an impenetrable but movable bag coupled to meson fields. The self-consistent motion of the bag is obtained by solving the equations of motion exactly assuming spherical symmetry. When the bag interacts with an external meson wave we find three different kinds of resonances: fermionic, geometric, and σ resonances. We discuss the phenomenological implications of our results
Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.
1986-01-01
The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.
Manual estimation of fallout casualties. Final report
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gant, K.S.; Haaland, C.M.
1978-08-01
A method is described for enabling Emergency Operating Centers (EOCs) to estimate nuclear fallout casualties (fatalities and injuries) during and after nuclear attack without the aid of computers. This method is compatible with the current manual method for estimating initial weapons effects. The new technique requires that the EOCs have information on nuclear detonations and upper wind conditions and that they have maps, a protractor, map overlay material, grease pencils, worksheets, and pencils. In addition, they will need two tables of data and a fallout casualty (FC) template, all supplied in this report. Five steps are involved in the estimation of fallout casualties for an area: sketching fallout wind streamlines on a map overlay; plotting locations of nuclear detonations and their fallout streamlines; measuring crosswind and upwind distances to detonation points from the point of interest; reading radiation exposure tables and summing the contributions from different weapons to obtain the exposure at that point; and using the FC template with the protection factor profile for the area to estimate fatalities and injuries. The tables of radiation exposure are based on a modified Weapons Systems Evaluation Group-10 (WSEG-10) fallout model. The table of county protection factor profiles (PFPs) assumes a Community Shelter Plan (CSP) posture
Intrinsically dynamic population models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert Schoen
2005-03-01
Full Text Available Intrinsically dynamic models (IDMs depict populations whose cumulative growth rate over a number of intervals equals the product of the long term growth rates (that is the dominant roots or dominant eigenvalues associated with each of those intervals. Here the focus is on the birth trajectory produced by a sequence of population projection (Leslie matrices. The elements of a Leslie matrix are represented as straightforward functions of the roots of the matrix, and new relationships are presented linking the roots of a matrix to its Net Reproduction Rate and stable mean age of childbearing. Incorporating mortality changes in the rates of reproduction yields an IDM when the subordinate roots are held constant over time. In IDMs, the birth trajectory generated by any specified sequence of Leslie matrices can be found analytically. In the Leslie model with 15 year age groups, the constant subordinate root assumption leads to reasonable changes in the age pattern of fertility, and equations (27 and (30 provide the population size and structure that result from changing levels of net reproduction. IDMs generalize the fixed rate stable population model. They can characterize any observed population, and can provide new insights into dynamic demographic behavior, including the momentum associated with gradual or irregular paths to zero growth.
Iraq: Summary of U.S. Casualties
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
O'Bryant, JoAnne
2007-01-01
...." A detailed casualty summary that includes data on deaths by cause, as well as statistics on soldiers wounded in action, is available at the following DoD website: [http://siadapp.dmdc.osd.mil/personnel/CASUALTY/castop.htm].
Iraq: Summary of U.S. Casualties
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Fischer, Hannah
2005-01-01
.../]; click on "OIF/OEF Casualty Update." A detailed casualty summary that includes data on deaths by cause, as well as statistics on soldiers wounded in action, is available at the following DoD website: [http://web1.whs.osd.mil/mmid/casualty/OIF-Total.pdf].
GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Klimešová, Dana
2006-01-01
Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory
Review of On-Scene Management of Mass-Casualty Attacks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Annelie Holgersson
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Background: The scene of a mass-casualty attack (MCA entails a crime scene, a hazardous space, and a great number of people needing medical assistance. Public transportation has been the target of such attacks and involves a high probability of generating mass casualties. The review aimed to investigate challenges for on-scene responses to MCAs and suggestions made to counter these challenges, with special attention given to attacks on public transportation and associated terminals. Methods: Articles were found through PubMed and Scopus, “relevant articles” as defined by the databases, and a manual search of references. Inclusion criteria were that the article referred to attack(s and/or a public transportation-related incident and issues concerning formal on-scene response. An appraisal of the articles’ scientific quality was conducted based on an evidence hierarchy model developed for the study. Results: One hundred and five articles were reviewed. Challenges for command and coordination on scene included establishing leadership, inter-agency collaboration, multiple incident sites, and logistics. Safety issues entailed knowledge and use of personal protective equipment, risk awareness and expectations, cordons, dynamic risk assessment, defensive versus offensive approaches, and joining forces. Communication concerns were equipment shortfalls, dialoguing, and providing information. Assessment problems were scene layout and interpreting environmental indicators as well as understanding setting-driven needs for specialist skills and resources. Triage and treatment difficulties included differing triage systems, directing casualties, uncommon injuries, field hospitals, level of care, providing psychological and pediatric care. Transportation hardships included scene access, distance to hospitals, and distribution of casualties. Conclusion: Commonly encountered challenges during unintentional incidents were added to during MCAs, implying
Triage in mass casualty situations
African Journals Online (AJOL)
universally accepted tool that allows health professionals to achieve this goal in a mass casualty situation. ... Head, Disaster Medicine, Western Cape Department of Health and Division of Emergency Medicine, University of Cape Town and .... This means that a new card has to be filled out with clinical data each time the ...
Traffic accidents involving fatigue driving and their extent of casualties.
Zhang, Guangnan; Yau, Kelvin K W; Zhang, Xun; Li, Yanyan
2016-02-01
The rapid progress of motorization has increased the number of traffic-related casualties. Although fatigue driving is a major cause of traffic accidents, the public remains not rather aware of its potential harmfulness. Fatigue driving has been termed as a "silent killer." Thus, a thorough study of traffic accidents and the risk factors associated with fatigue-related casualties is of utmost importance. In this study, we analyze traffic accident data for the period 2006-2010 in Guangdong Province, China. The study data were extracted from the traffic accident database of China's Public Security Department. A logistic regression model is used to assess the effect of driver characteristics, type of vehicles, road conditions, and environmental factors on fatigue-related traffic accident occurrence and severity. On the one hand, male drivers, trucks, driving during midnight to dawn, and morning rush hours are identified as risk factors of fatigue-related crashes but do not necessarily result in severe casualties. Driving at night without street-lights contributes to fatigue-related crashes and severe casualties. On the other hand, while factors such as less experienced drivers, unsafe vehicle status, slippery roads, driving at night with street-lights, and weekends do not have significant effect on fatigue-related crashes, yet accidents associated with these factors are likely to have severe casualties. The empirical results of the present study have important policy implications on the reduction of fatigue-related crashes as well as their severity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modelling dynamic roughness during floods
Paarlberg, Andries; Dohmen-Janssen, Catarine M.; Hulscher, Suzanne J.M.H.; Termes, A.P.P.
2007-01-01
In this paper, we present a dynamic roughness model to predict water levels during floods. Hysteresis effects of dune development are explicitly included. It is shown that differences between the new dynamic roughness model, and models where the roughness coefficient is calibrated, are most
Business models and dynamic capabilities
Teece, DJ
2017-01-01
© 2017 The Author. Business models, dynamic capabilities, and strategy are interdependent. The strength of a firm's dynamic capabilities help shape its proficiency at business model design. Through its effect on organization design, a business model influences the firm's dynamic capabilities and places bounds on the feasibility of particular strategies. While these relationships are understood at a theoretical level, there is a need for future empirical work to flesh out the details. In parti...
Dynamic modeling for pandemic influenza
Postma, M.J.
It is now widely agreed upon that most infectious diseases require a dynamic approach to validly analyze infectious disease control. Given the size of the spread and the potential impact, pandemic influenza certainly presents an area where dynamic modeling is much needed. In this article, a dynamic
Dynamic Characteristics and Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Lars
2007-01-01
, sitting or standing posture, and that these persons influence the dynamic characteristics of the floor (floor frequency and floor damping) is demonstrated in the paper. The mechanism of the dynamic interaction between the floor mass and the mass of stationary persons is generally not well understood...
Structural dynamic modifications via models
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
of structural dynamic optimization techniques. A review of structural optimization in vibratory environments is given by Rao (1989). 2. SDM techniques. SDM methods may be broadly divided into two groups. Those which employ a model of the structure and those that use dynamic test data directly. The model used by the ...
Eye casualty services in London
Smith, H B; Daniel, C S; Verma, S
2013-01-01
The combined pressures of the European Working Time Directive, 4 h waiting time target, and growing rates of unplanned hospital attendances have forced a major consolidation of eye casualty departments across the country, with the remaining units seeing a rapid increase in demand. We examine the effect of these changes on the provision of emergency eye care in Central London, and see what wider lessons can be learned. We surveyed the managers responsible for each of London's 8 out-of-hours eye casualty services, analysed data on attendance numbers, and conducted detailed interviews with lead clinicians. At London's two largest units, Moorfields Eye Hospital and the Western Eye Hospital, annual attendance numbers have been rising at 7.9% per year (to 76 034 patients in 2010/11) and 9.6% per year (to 31 128 patients in 2010/11), respectively. Using Moorfields as a case study, we discuss methods to increase capacity and efficiency in response to this demand, and also examine some of the unintended consequences of service consolidation including patients travelling long distances to geographically inappropriate units, and confusion over responsibility for out-of-hours inpatient cover. We describe a novel ‘referral pathway' developed to minimise unnecessary travelling and delay for patients, and propose a forum for the strategic planning of London's eye casualty services in the future. PMID:23370420
Developing and Organizing a Trauma System and Mass Casualty ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
and Mass Casualty Management: Some Useful. Observations from the Israeli Trauma Model ... and websites of trauma organizations. Israel has a unique trauma system of organizing ... on continuous education, manpower training, motivation, team‑work and creation of public volunteers through advocacy is important for ...
Mass Casualties in Combat: Lessons Learned
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Beekley, Alex C
2007-01-01
.... Analysis of multiple and mass casualty events from current conflicts can provide critical lessons learned regarding triage and resource utilization that can potentially be applied to other conflicts...
Dynamic programming models and applications
Denardo, Eric V
2003-01-01
Introduction to sequential decision processes covers use of dynamic programming in studying models of resource allocation, methods for approximating solutions of control problems in continuous time, production control, more. 1982 edition.
Dynamical models of the Galaxy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
McMillan P.J.
2012-02-01
Full Text Available I discuss the importance of dynamical models for exploiting survey data, focusing on the advantages of “torus” models. I summarize a number of applications of these models to the study of the Milky Way, including the determination of the peculiar Solar velocity and investigation of the Hyades moving group.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andreasen, Martin Møller; Meldrum, Andrew
pricing factors using the sequential regression approach. Our findings suggest that the two models largely provide the same in-sample fit, but loadings from ordinary and risk-adjusted Campbell-Shiller regressions are generally best matched by the shadow rate models. We also find that the shadow rate...... models perform better than the QTSMs when forecasting bond yields out of sample....
Dynamic Modeling of ALS Systems
Jones, Harry
2002-01-01
The purpose of dynamic modeling and simulation of Advanced Life Support (ALS) systems is to help design them. Static steady state systems analysis provides basic information and is necessary to guide dynamic modeling, but static analysis is not sufficient to design and compare systems. ALS systems must respond to external input variations and internal off-nominal behavior. Buffer sizing, resupply scheduling, failure response, and control system design are aspects of dynamic system design. We develop two dynamic mass flow models and use them in simulations to evaluate systems issues, optimize designs, and make system design trades. One model is of nitrogen leakage in the space station, the other is of a waste processor failure in a regenerative life support system. Most systems analyses are concerned with optimizing the cost/benefit of a system at its nominal steady-state operating point. ALS analysis must go beyond the static steady state to include dynamic system design. All life support systems exhibit behavior that varies over time. ALS systems must respond to equipment operating cycles, repair schedules, and occasional off-nominal behavior or malfunctions. Biological components, such as bioreactors, composters, and food plant growth chambers, usually have operating cycles or other complex time behavior. Buffer sizes, material stocks, and resupply rates determine dynamic system behavior and directly affect system mass and cost. Dynamic simulation is needed to avoid the extremes of costly over-design of buffers and material reserves or system failure due to insufficient buffers and lack of stored material.
Model describes subsea control dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
1988-02-01
A mathematical model of the hydraulic control systems for subsea completions and their umbilicals has been developed and applied successfully to Jabiru and Challis field production projects in the Timor Sea. The model overcomes the limitations of conventional linear steady state models and yields for the hydraulic system an accurate description of its dynamic response, including the valve shut-in times and the pressure transients. Results of numerical simulations based on the model are in good agreement with measurements of the dynamic response of the tree valves and umbilicals made during land testing.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ranasinghe P. K. C. Malmini
2008-09-01
Full Text Available We model the price prediction in Sri Lankan stock market using Ising model and some recent developments in statistical physics techniques. In contrast to usual agent-models, the influence does not flow inward from the surrounding neighbors to the centre, but spreads outward from the center to the neighbors. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study this problem. The analysis was based on All share price index, Milanka price index in Colombo Stock Exchange and Simulated Price Process. The monthly and daily influences of the above indices to the Sri Lankan economy were also investigated. The model thus describes the spread of opinions traders.
The Casualty Network System Capstone Project
2012-12-01
External Defibrillator AF – Assault Force ARS – Acute Radiation Sickness CBRN – Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear CNS – Casualty...relates to the networking of information flow in combat casualty care. This description will lie out the fundamental concepts of network theory and relate
Modeling Propellant Tank Dynamics
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The main objective of my work will be to develop accurate models of self-pressurizing propellant tanks for use in designing hybrid rockets. The first key goal is to...
Liquid-particle model for nuclear dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Strutinsky, V.; Magner, A.
1983-01-01
The liquid-particle model for nuclear dynamics is discussed. Combined liquid-quantum dynamics is described. In solving the dynamic problem the nuclear surface as a dynamic variable is introduced. The giant zeroth-sound resonances are studied
Modeling Internet Topology Dynamics
Haddadi, H.; Uhlig, S.; Moore, A.; Mortier, R.; Rio, M.
Despite the large number of papers on network topology modeling and inference, there still exists ambiguity about the real nature of the Internet AS and router level topology. While recent findings have illustrated the inaccuracies in maps inferred from BGP peering and traceroute measurements,
Modelling group dynamic animal movement
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Langrock, Roland; Hopcraft, J. Grant C.; Blackwell, Paul G.
2014-01-01
in non-ideal scenarios, we show that generally the estimation of models of this type is both feasible and ecologically informative. We illustrate the approach using real movement data from 11 reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Results indicate a directional bias towards a group centroid for reindeer......Group dynamic movement is a fundamental aspect of many species' movements. The need to adequately model individuals' interactions with other group members has been recognised, particularly in order to differentiate the role of social forces in individual movement from environmental factors. However......, to date, practical statistical methods which can include group dynamics in animal movement models have been lacking. We consider a flexible modelling framework that distinguishes a group-level model, describing the movement of the group's centre, and an individual-level model, such that each individual...
Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation
Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto
2014-01-01
The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.
Predicting casualties implied by TIPs
Trendafiloski, G.; Wyss, M.; Wyss, B. M.
2009-12-01
When an earthquake is predicted, forecast, or expected with a higher than normal probability, losses are implied. We estimated the casualties (fatalities plus injured) that should be expected if earthquakes in TIPs (locations of Temporarily Increased Probability of earthquakes) defined by Kossobokov et al. (2009) should occur. We classified the predictions of losses into the categories red (more than 400 fatalities or more than 1,000 injured), yellow (between 100 and 400 fatalities), green (fewer than 100 fatalities), and gray (undetermined). TIPs in Central Chile, the Philippines, Papua, and Taiwan are in the red class, TIPs in Southern Sumatra, Nicaragua, Vanatu, and Honshu in the yellow class, and TIPs in Tonga, Loyalty Islands, Vanatu, S. Sandwich Islands, Banda Sea, and the Kuriles, are classified as green. TIPs where the losses depend moderately on the assumed point of major energy release were classified as yellow; TIPs such as in the Talaud Islands and in Tonga, where the losses depend very strongly on the location of the epicenter, were classified as gray. The accuracy of loss estimates after earthquakes with known hypocenter and magnitude are affected by uncertainties in transmission and soil properties, the composition of the building stock, the population present, and the method by which the numbers of casualties are calculated. In the case of TIPs, uncertainties in magnitude and location are added, thus we calculate losses for a range of these two parameters. Therefore, our calculations can only be considered order of magnitude estimates. Nevertheless, our predictions can come to within a factor of two of the observed numbers, as in the case of the M7.6 earthquake of October 2005 in Pakistan that resulted in 85,000 fatalities (Wyss, 2005). In subduction zones, the geometrical relationship between the earthquake source capable of a great earthquake and the population is clear because there is only one major fault plane available, thus the epicentral
A dynamical model of terrorism
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Firdaus Udwadia
2006-01-01
Full Text Available This paper develops a dynamical model of terrorism. We consider the population in a given region as being made up of three primary components: terrorists, those susceptible to both terrorist and pacifist propaganda, and nonsusceptibles, or pacifists. The dynamical behavior of these three populations is studied using a model that incorporates the effects of both direct military/police intervention to reduce the terrorist population, and nonviolent, persuasive intervention to influence the susceptibles to become pacifists. The paper proposes a new paradigm for studying terrorism, and looks at the long-term dynamical evolution in time of these three population components when such interventions are carried out. Many important features—some intuitive, others not nearly so—of the nature of terrorism emerge from the dynamical model proposed, and they lead to several important policy implications for the management of terrorism. The different circumstances in which nonviolent intervention and/or military/police intervention may be beneficial, and the specific conditions under which each mode of intervention, or a combination of both, may be useful, are obtained. The novelty of the model presented herein is that it deals with the time evolution of terrorist activity. It appears to be one of the few models that can be tested, evaluated, and improved upon, through the use of actual field data.
Tactical Combat Casualty Care: Beginnings.
Butler, Frank K
2017-06-01
Tactical Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) is a set of evidence-based, best-practice prehospital trauma care guidelines customized for use on the battlefield. The origins of TCCC were nontraditional. The TCCC program began as a Naval Special Warfare biomedical research effort launched after the realization that extremity hemorrhage, a leading cause of preventable death on the battlefield, was not being treated with a readily available and highly effective intervention: the tourniquet. This insight prompted a systematic reevaluation of all aspects of battlefield trauma care that was conducted from 1993 to 1996 as a joint effort by special operations medical personnel and the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences. The product of that 3-year research project was TCCC, the first-ever set of battlefield trauma care guidelines designed to combine good medicine with good small-unit tactics. Published by Elsevier Inc.
The dynamics of coastal models
Hearn, Clifford J.
2008-01-01
Coastal basins are defined as estuaries, lagoons, and embayments. This book deals with the science of coastal basins using simple models, many of which are presented in either analytical form or Microsoft Excel or MATLAB. The book introduces simple hydrodynamics and its applications, from the use of simple box and one-dimensional models to flow over coral reefs. The book also emphasizes models as a scientific tool in our understanding of coasts, and introduces the value of the most modern flexible mesh combined wave-current models. Examples from shallow basins around the world illustrate the wonders of the scientific method and the power of simple dynamics. This book is ideal for use as an advanced textbook for graduate students and as an introduction to the topic for researchers, especially those from other fields of science needing a basic understanding of the basic ideas of the dynamics of coastal basins.
Transfusion-Associated Microchimerism in Combat Casualties
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Dunne, James R; Lee, Tzong-Hae; Burns, Christopher; Cardo, Lisa J; Curry, Kathleen; Busch, Michael P
2007-01-01
...) in civilian trauma patients receiving allogenic red blood cell (RBC) transfusions. We explored the incidence of TA-MC in combat casualties receiving FrWB compared with patients receiving standard stored RBC transfusions. Methods...
Management of Mass Casualty Burn Disasters
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Cancio, Leopoldo C; Pruitt, Basil A
2005-01-01
Mass casualty burn disasters are potentially challenging, in part because the majority of health care providers are inexperienced in the care of thermally injured patients and in part because of the...
Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models
Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.
2002-01-01
To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,
Preliminary quantitative assessment of earthquake casualties and damages
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Badal, J.; Vázquez-Prada, M.; González, Á.
2005-01-01
Prognostic estimations of the expected number of killed or injured people and about the approximate cost associated with the damages caused by earthquakes are made following a suitable methodology of wide-ranging application. For the preliminary assessment of human life losses due to the occurrence...... of a relatively strong earthquake we use a quantitative model consisting of a correlation between the number of casualties and the earthquake magnitude as a function of population density. The macroseismic intensity field is determined in accordance with an updated anelastic attenuation law, and the number...... the local social wealth as a function of the gross domestic product of the country. This last step is performed on the basis of the relationship of the macroseismic intensity to the earthquake economic loss in percentage of the wealth. Such an approach to the human casualty and damage levels is carried out...
Business model dynamics and innovation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cavalcante, Sergio Andre; Kesting, Peter; Ulhøi, John Parm
2011-01-01
Purpose – This paper aims to discuss the need to dynamize the existing conceptualization of business model, and proposes a new typology to distinguish different types of business model change. Design/methodology/approach – The paper integrates basic insights of innovation, business process...... the impact of specific changes to a firm's business model. Such a tool would be particularly useful in identifying path dependencies and resistance at the process level, and would therefore allow a firm's management to take focused action on this in advance. Originality/value – The paper makes two main...... contributions: first, it offers a new, process-based conceptualization of business models; second, it is the first paper to establish a direct link between business model change and the degree of innovation (such as “incremental” vs “radical”), and which distinguishes and specifies different types of business...
Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Morten Haack
2006-01-01
An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...... insight. It is based on a sensitivity approach that is useful for choice of model structure, for experiment design, and for accuracy verification. The method is implemented in the Matlab toolkit Senstools. The method and the presentation have been developed with generally preferred learning styles in mind...
Multiscale modeling of pedestrian dynamics
Cristiani, Emiliano; Tosin, Andrea
2014-01-01
This book presents mathematical models and numerical simulations of crowd dynamics. The core topic is the development of a new multiscale paradigm, which bridges the microscopic and macroscopic scales taking the most from each of them for capturing the relevant clues of complexity of crowds. The background idea is indeed that most of the complex trends exhibited by crowds are due to an intrinsic interplay between individual and collective behaviors. The modeling approach promoted in this book pursues actively this intuition and profits from it for designing general mathematical structures susceptible of application also in fields different from the inspiring original one. The book considers also the two most traditional points of view: the microscopic one, in which pedestrians are tracked individually, and the macroscopic one, in which pedestrians are assimilated to a continuum. Selected existing models are critically analyzed. The work is addressed to researchers and graduate students.
Development of sulfanegen for mass cyanide casualties.
Patterson, Steven E; Moeller, Bryant; Nagasawa, Herbert T; Vince, Robert; Crankshaw, Daune L; Briggs, Jacquie; Stutelberg, Michael W; Vinnakota, Chakravarthy V; Logue, Brian A
2016-06-01
Cyanide is a metabolic poison that inhibits the utilization of oxygen to form ATP. The consequences of acute cyanide exposure are severe; exposure results in loss of consciousness, cardiac and respiratory failure, hypoxic brain injury, and dose-dependent death within minutes to hours. In a mass-casualty scenario, such as an industrial accident or terrorist attack, currently available cyanide antidotes would leave many victims untreated in the short time available for successful administration of a medical countermeasure. This restricted therapeutic window reflects the rate-limiting step of intravenous administration, which requires both time and trained medical personnel. Therefore, there is a need for rapidly acting antidotes that can be quickly administered to large numbers of people. To meet this need, our laboratory is developing sulfanegen, a potential antidote for cyanide poisoning with a novel mechanism based on 3-mercaptopyruvate sulfurtransferase (3-MST) for the detoxification of cyanide. Additionally, sulfanegen can be rapidly administered by intramuscular injection and has shown efficacy in many species of animal models. This article summarizes the journey from concept to clinical leads for this promising cyanide antidote. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cipiti, Benjamin B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2017-03-01
The Co-Decontamination (CoDCon) Demonstration project is designed to test the separation of a mixed U and Pu product from dissolved spent nuclear fuel. The primary purpose of the project is to quantify the accuracy and precision to which a U/Pu mass ratio can be achieved without removing a pure Pu product. The system includes an on-line monitoring system using spectroscopy to monitor the ratios throughout the process. A dynamic model of the CoDCon flowsheet and on-line monitoring system was developed in order to expand the range of scenarios that can be examined for process control and determine overall measurement uncertainty. The model development and initial results are presented here.
MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RIVERBOAT DYNAMICS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Aleksander Grm
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Present work describes a simple dynamical model for riverboat motion based on the square drag law. Air and water interactions with the boat are determined from aerodynamic coefficients. CFX simulations were performed with fully developed turbulent flow to determine boat aerodynamic coefficients for an arbitrary angle of attack for the air and water portions separately. The effect of wave resistance is negligible compared to other forces. Boat movement analysis considers only two-dimensional motion, therefore only six aerodynamics coefficients are required. The proposed model is solved and used to determine the critical environmental parameters (wind and current under which river navigation can be conducted safely. Boat simulator was tested in a single area on the Ljubljanica river and estimated critical wind velocity.
Characterizing and Modeling Citation Dynamics
Eom, Young-Ho; Fortunato, Santo
2011-01-01
Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well. PMID:21966387
Dynamical modeling of tidal streams
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bovy, Jo
2014-01-01
I present a new framework for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams. The framework consists of simple models for the initial action-angle distribution of tidal debris, which can be straightforwardly evolved forward in time. Taking advantage of the essentially one-dimensional nature of tidal streams, the transformation to position-velocity coordinates can be linearized and interpolated near a small number of points along the stream, thus allowing for efficient computations of a stream's properties in observable quantities. I illustrate how to calculate the stream's average location (its 'track') in different coordinate systems, how to quickly estimate the dispersion around its track, and how to draw mock stream data. As a generative model, this framework allows one to compute the full probability distribution function and marginalize over or condition it on certain phase-space dimensions as well as convolve it with observational uncertainties. This will be instrumental in proper data analysis of stream data. In addition to providing a computationally efficient practical tool for modeling the dynamics of tidal streams, the action-angle nature of the framework helps elucidate how the observed width of the stream relates to the velocity dispersion or mass of the progenitor, and how the progenitors of 'orphan' streams could be located. The practical usefulness of the proposed framework crucially depends on the ability to calculate action-angle variables for any orbit in any gravitational potential. A novel method for calculating actions, frequencies, and angles in any static potential using a single orbit integration is described in the Appendix.
Ship Engine Room Casualty Analysis by Using Decision Tree Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ömür Yaşar SAATÇİOĞLU
2017-03-01
Full Text Available Ships may encounter undesirable conditions during operations. In consequence of a casualty, fire, explosion, flooding, grounding, injury even death may occur. Besides, these results can be avoidable with precautions and preventive operating processes. In maritime transportation, casualties depend on various factors. These were listed as misuse of the engine equipment and tools, defective machinery or equipment, inadequacy of operational procedure and measure of safety and force majeure effects. Casualty reports which were published in Australia, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Canada and United States until 2015 were examined and the probable causes and consequences of casualties were determined with their occurrence percentages. In this study, 89 marine investigation reports regarding engine room casualties were analyzed. Casualty factors were analyzed with their frequency percentages and also their main causes were constructed. This study aims to investigate engine room based casualties, frequency of each casualty type and main causes by using decision tree method.
Casualty Estimation for Nuclear and Radiological Weapons
2016-06-01
I N S T I T U T E F O R D E F E N S E A N A L Y S E S Casualty Estimation for Nuclear and Radiological Weapons Carl A. Curling INSTITUTE FOR...S E S IDA Paper P-5220 Casualty Estimation for Nuclear and Radiological Weapons Carl A. Curling This page is intentionally blank. iii Executive... nuclear devices (IND), as well as conventional nuclear weapons .”1 This analysis describes exemplar nuclear and radiological weapon threats; the
Dynamical Modeling of Mars' Paleoclimate
Richardson, Mark I.
2004-01-01
This report summarizes work undertaken under a one-year grant from the NASA Mars Fundamental Research Program. The goal of the project was to initiate studies of the response of the Martian climate to changes in planetary obliquity and orbital elements. This work was undertaken with a three-dimensional numerical climate model based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Skyhi General Circulation Model (GCM). The Mars GCM code was adapted to simulate various obliquity and orbital parameter states. Using a version of the model with a basic water cycle (ice caps, vapor, and clouds), we examined changes in atmospheric water abundances and in the distribution of water ice sheets on the surface. This work resulted in a paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research - Planets. In addition, the project saw the initial incorporation of a regolith water transport and storage scheme into the model. This scheme allows for interaction between water in the pores of the near subsurface (Mars Fundamental Research Program in late 2003.
46 CFR 197.486 - Written report of casualty.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Written report of casualty. 197.486 Section 197.486... STANDARDS GENERAL PROVISIONS Commercial Diving Operations Records § 197.486 Written report of casualty. The person-in-charge of a vessel or facility for which a notice of casualty was made under § 197.484 shall...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Blood, Christopher
1997-01-01
.... Because the logistics of shipboard casualty evacuation can be problematic, reliable estimates of the medical resources needed aboard ships are critical to the timely treatment of any battle wounds sustained...
Characterizing and modeling citation dynamics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Young-Ho Eom
Full Text Available Citation distributions are crucial for the analysis and modeling of the activity of scientists. We investigated bibliometric data of papers published in journals of the American Physical Society, searching for the type of function which best describes the observed citation distributions. We used the goodness of fit with Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics for three classes of functions: log-normal, simple power law and shifted power law. The shifted power law turns out to be the most reliable hypothesis for all citation networks we derived, which correspond to different time spans. We find that citation dynamics is characterized by bursts, usually occurring within a few years since publication of a paper, and the burst size spans several orders of magnitude. We also investigated the microscopic mechanisms for the evolution of citation networks, by proposing a linear preferential attachment with time dependent initial attractiveness. The model successfully reproduces the empirical citation distributions and accounts for the presence of citation bursts as well.
Supply based on demand dynamical model
Levi, Asaf; Sabuco, Juan; Sanjuán, Miguel A. F.
2018-04-01
We propose and numerically analyze a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameter values, we observe a wide variety of market dynamics such as equilibria, periodic, and chaotic behaviors. Interestingly, the model is also able to reproduce market collapses.
Modelling the dynamics of youth subcultures
Holme, Petter; Gronlund, Andreas
2005-01-01
What are the dynamics behind youth subcultures such as punk, hippie, or hip-hop cultures? How does the global dynamics of these subcultures relate to the individual's search for a personal identity? We propose a simple dynamical model to address these questions and find that only a few assumptions of the individual's behaviour are necessary to regenerate known features of youth culture.
Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models
Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.
2003-01-01
To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems, on
Dynamic Model Development for Interplanetary Navigation
Eun-Seo Park; Young-Joo Song; Sung-Moon Yoo; Sang-Young Park; Kyu-Hong Choi; Jae-Cheol Yoon; Jo Ryeong Yim; Joon-Min Choi; Byung-Kyo Kim
2005-01-01
In this paper, the dynamic model development for interplanetary navigation has been discussed. The Cowell method for special perturbation theories was employed to develop an interplanetary trajectory propagator including the perturbations due to geopotential, the Earth's dynamic polar motion, the gravity of the Sun, the Moon and the other planets in the solar system, the relativistic effect of the Sun, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag. The equations of motion in dynamic model we...
System dynamics modelling of situation awareness
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Oosthuizen, R
2015-11-01
Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...
Launch Vehicle Dynamics Demonstrator Model
1963-01-01
The effect of vibration on launch vehicle dynamics was studied. Conditions included three modes of instability. The film includes close up views of the simulator fuel tank with and without stability control.
Westinghouse GOCO conduct of casualty drills
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ames, C.P.
1996-02-01
Purpose of this document is to provide Westinghouse Government Owned Contractor Operated (GOCO) Facilities with information that can be used to implement or improve drill programs. Elements of this guide are highly recommended for use when implementing a new drill program or when assessing an existing program. Casualty drills focus on response to abnormal conditions presenting a hazard to personnel, environment, or equipment; they are distinct from Emergency Response Exercises in which the training emphasis is on site, field office, and emergency management team interaction. The DOE documents which require team training and conducting drills in nuclear facilities and should be used as guidance in non-nuclear facilities are: DOE 5480.19 (Chapter 1 of Attachment I) and DOE 5480.20 (Chapter 1, paragraphs 7 a. and d. of continuing training). Casualty drills should be an integral part of the qualification and training program at every DOE facility
Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.
Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa
2013-01-01
Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.
Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models
Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa
2014-01-01
Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842
Adaptive numerical modeling of dynamic crack propagation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Adouani, H.; Tie, B.; Berdin, C.; Aubry, D.
2006-01-01
We propose an adaptive numerical strategy that aims at developing reliable and efficient numerical tools to model dynamic crack propagation and crack arrest. We use the cohesive zone theory as behavior of interface-type elements to model crack. Since the crack path is generally unknown beforehand, adaptive meshing is proposed to model the dynamic crack propagation. The dynamic study requires the development of specific solvers for time integration. As both geometry and finite element mesh of the studied structure evolve in time during transient analysis, the stability behavior of dynamic solver becomes a major concern. For this purpose, we use the space-time discontinuous Galerkin finite element method, well-known to provide a natural framework to manage meshes that evolve in time. As an important result, we prove that the space-time discontinuous Galerkin solver is unconditionally stable, when the dynamic crack propagation is modeled by the cohesive zone theory, which is highly non-linear. (authors)
Callaway, David W
2017-06-01
Combat operations necessitate bold thought and afford the opportunity to rapidly evolve and improve trauma care. The development and maturation of Tactical Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) is an important example of a critical process improvement strategy that reduced mortality in high-threat combat-related trauma. The Committee for Tactical Emergency Casualty Care (C-TECC) adapted the lessons of TCCC to the civilian high-threat environment and provided important all-hazards response principles for austere, dynamic, and resource-limited environments. The Hartford Consensus mobilized the resources of the American College of Surgeons to drive public policy regarding a more singular focus: hemorrhage control. The combined efforts of C-TECC and Hartford Consensus have helped redefine the practice of trauma care in high-threat scenarios across the United States. Copyright © 2017 Wilderness Medical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A Dynamic Model of Sustainment Investment
2015-02-01
Sustainment System Dynamics Model 11 Figure 7: Core Structure of Sustainment Work 12 Figure 8: Bandwagon Effect Loop 13 Figure 9: Limits to Growth Loop 14...Dynamics Model sustainment capacity sustainment performance gap Bandwagon Effect R1 Limits to Growth B1 S Work Smarter B3 Work Bigger B2 desired...which is of concern primarily when using the model as a vehicle for research. Figure 8 depicts a reinforcing loop called the “ Bandwagon Effect
A Stochastic Cobweb Dynamical Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Serena Brianzoni
2008-01-01
_,__0__1, and the forward predictor with probability (1−, so that the expected price at time is a random variable and consequently the dynamics describing the price evolution in time is governed by a stochastic dynamical system. The dynamical system becomes a Markov process when the memory rate vanishes. In particular, we study the Markov chain in the cases of discrete and continuous time. Using a mixture of analytical tools and numerical methods, we show that, when prices take discrete values, the corresponding Markov chain is asymptotically stable. In the case with continuous prices and nonnecessarily zero memory rate, numerical evidence of bounded price oscillations is shown. The role of the memory rate is studied through numerical experiments, this study confirms the stabilizing effects of the presence of resistant memory.
Very Large System Dynamics Models - Lessons Learned
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jacob J. Jacobson; Leonard Malczynski
2008-10-01
This paper provides lessons learned from developing several large system dynamics (SD) models. System dynamics modeling practice emphasize the need to keep models small so that they are manageable and understandable. This practice is generally reasonable and prudent; however, there are times that large SD models are necessary. This paper outlines two large SD projects that were done at two Department of Energy National Laboratories, the Idaho National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. This paper summarizes the models and then discusses some of the valuable lessons learned during these two modeling efforts.
Comparing models of Red Knot population dynamics
McGowan, Conor P.
2015-01-01
Predictive population modeling contributes to our basic scientific understanding of population dynamics, but can also inform management decisions by evaluating alternative actions in virtual environments. Quantitative models mathematically reflect scientific hypotheses about how a system functions. In Delaware Bay, mid-Atlantic Coast, USA, to more effectively manage horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) harvests and protect Red Knot (Calidris canutus rufa) populations, models are used to compare harvest actions and predict the impacts on crab and knot populations. Management has been chiefly driven by the core hypothesis that horseshoe crab egg abundance governs the survival and reproduction of migrating Red Knots that stopover in the Bay during spring migration. However, recently, hypotheses proposing that knot dynamics are governed by cyclical lemming dynamics garnered some support in data analyses. In this paper, I present alternative models of Red Knot population dynamics to reflect alternative hypotheses. Using 2 models with different lemming population cycle lengths and 2 models with different horseshoe crab effects, I project the knot population into the future under environmental stochasticity and parametric uncertainty with each model. I then compare each model's predictions to 10 yr of population monitoring from Delaware Bay. Using Bayes' theorem and model weight updating, models can accrue weight or support for one or another hypothesis of population dynamics. With 4 models of Red Knot population dynamics and only 10 yr of data, no hypothesis clearly predicted population count data better than another. The collapsed lemming cycle model performed best, accruing ~35% of the model weight, followed closely by the horseshoe crab egg abundance model, which accrued ~30% of the weight. The models that predicted no decline or stable populations (i.e. the 4-yr lemming cycle model and the weak horseshoe crab effect model) were the most weakly supported.
Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.
2017-12-01
There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.
Modeling microbial growth and dynamics.
Esser, Daniel S; Leveau, Johan H J; Meyer, Katrin M
2015-11-01
Modeling has become an important tool for widening our understanding of microbial growth in the context of applied microbiology and related to such processes as safe food production, wastewater treatment, bioremediation, or microbe-mediated mining. Various modeling techniques, such as primary, secondary and tertiary mathematical models, phenomenological models, mechanistic or kinetic models, reactive transport models, Bayesian network models, artificial neural networks, as well as agent-, individual-, and particle-based models have been applied to model microbial growth and activity in many applied fields. In this mini-review, we summarize the basic concepts of these models using examples and applications from food safety and wastewater treatment systems. We further review recent developments in other applied fields focusing on models that explicitly include spatial relationships. Using these examples, we point out the conceptual similarities across fields of application and encourage the combined use of different modeling techniques in hybrid models as well as their cross-disciplinary exchange. For instance, pattern-oriented modeling has its origin in ecology but may be employed to parameterize microbial growth models when experimental data are scarce. Models could also be used as virtual laboratories to optimize experimental design analogous to the virtual ecologist approach. Future microbial growth models will likely become more complex to benefit from the rich toolbox that is now available to microbial growth modelers.
Discrete Dynamical Models of Walking Droplets
Rahman, Aminur
2017-11-01
In recent years discrete planar dynamical models of walking droplets (walkers) on a billiards table (Shirokoff, Chaos 2013) and walking in a straight-line confined geometry (Gilet, PRE 2014) have been developed. Gilet's model was then analyzed via dynamical systems theory (Rahman-Blackmore, C,S& F 2016). From the analysis it was shown that while Gilet's walker is confined under the threshold for chaos, it does escape the boundary once the system becomes chaotic. We modify the model to trap the walker in an annulur domain. This allows for connections between the dynamics, statistics, and experimental works (Filoux et al., PRE 2015). From this connection we derive a kicked rotator-like model for a walker in an annulus. We endeavor to manipulate the dynamics of the model to produce statistics similar to that of experiments.
Structural dynamic modifications via models
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2nd Int. Modal Analysis Conference (Orlando) 2: 930±936. Natke H G (ed.) 1982 Identification of vibrating structures (New York: Springer Verlag, Wein). Rao S S 1989 Optimum design of structures under shock and vibration environment. Shock Vibr. Dig. 21(7):. Ravi S S A 1994 Structural dynamic modifications and design ...
Dynamic Motion Modelling for Legged Robots
Edgington, Mark; Kassahun, Yohannes; Kirchner, Frank
2010-01-01
An accurate motion model is an important component in modern-day robotic systems, but building such a model for a complex system often requires an appreciable amount of manual effort. In this paper we present a motion model representation, the Dynamic Gaussian Mixture Model (DGMM), that alleviates the need to manually design the form of a motion model, and provides a direct means of incorporating auxiliary sensory data into the model. This representation and its accompanying algorithms are va...
Phone Routing using the Dynamic Memory Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bendtsen, Claus Nicolaj; Krink, Thiemo
2002-01-01
In earlier studies a genetic algorithm (GA) extended with the dynamic memory model has shown remarkable performance on real-world-like problems. In this paper we experiment with routing in communication networks and show that the dynamic memory GA performs remarkable well compared to ant colony...
Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther
2015-01-01
We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia...
Dynamic logistic regression and dynamic model averaging for binary classification.
McCormick, Tyler H; Raftery, Adrian E; Madigan, David; Burd, Randall S
2012-03-01
We propose an online binary classification procedure for cases when there is uncertainty about the model to use and parameters within a model change over time. We account for model uncertainty through dynamic model averaging, a dynamic extension of Bayesian model averaging in which posterior model probabilities may also change with time. We apply a state-space model to the parameters of each model and we allow the data-generating model to change over time according to a Markov chain. Calibrating a "forgetting" factor accommodates different levels of change in the data-generating mechanism. We propose an algorithm that adjusts the level of forgetting in an online fashion using the posterior predictive distribution, and so accommodates various levels of change at different times. We apply our method to data from children with appendicitis who receive either a traditional (open) appendectomy or a laparoscopic procedure. Factors associated with which children receive a particular type of procedure changed substantially over the 7 years of data collection, a feature that is not captured using standard regression modeling. Because our procedure can be implemented completely online, future data collection for similar studies would require storing sensitive patient information only temporarily, reducing the risk of a breach of confidentiality. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.
Civilian Casualties in the Colombian Conflict: A New Approach to Human Security
Spagat, M; Restrepo, J
2006-01-01
We develop a new, quantitative approach to the analysis of human security during armed conflict and apply this methodology to the Colombian conflict, 1988-2003. We consider 21 different attack types (unopposed events) plus clashes between pairs of armed groups. For each event type we determine the number of civilian killings and injuries (casualties), the armed group(s) involved and the population density of the municipalities where these events occur. We also study the dynamics of civilian c...
Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks
M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk
2009-01-01
The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...
Damping mechanisms and models in structural dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Krenk, Steen
2002-01-01
Several aspects of damping models for dynamic analysis of structures are investigated. First the causality condition for structural response is used to identify rules for the use of complex-valued frequency dependent material models, illustrated by the shortcomings of the elastic hysteretic model...
Permanent magnet synchronous motor dynamic modeling with ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper proposes dynamic modeling simulation for ac Surface Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (SPMSM) with the aid of MATLAB – Simulink environment. The proposed model would be used in many applications such as automotive, mechatronics, green energy applications, and machine drives. The modeling ...
Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models
2016-07-20
AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0258 Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models Eunice Santos UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT EL PASO 500 UNIV ST ADMIN BLDG...REPORT TYPE Final Report 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 3/1/13-12/31/14 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Incorporating Resilience into Dynamic Social Models 5a...AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT We propose an overarching framework designed to incorporate various aspects of social resilience
Dynamic cognitive models of intertemporal choice.
Dai, Junyi; Pleskac, Timothy J; Pachur, Thorsten
2018-03-24
Traditionally, descriptive accounts of intertemporal choice have relied on static and deterministic models that assume alternative-wise processing of the options. Recent research, by contrast, has highlighted the dynamic and probabilistic nature of intertemporal choice and provided support for attribute-wise processing. Currently, dynamic models of intertemporal choice-which account for both the resulting choice and the time course over which the construction of a choice develops-rely exclusively on the framework of evidence accumulation. In this article, we develop and rigorously compare several candidate schemes for dynamic models of intertemporal choice. Specifically, we consider an existing dynamic modeling scheme based on decision field theory and develop two novel modeling schemes-one assuming lexicographic, noncompensatory processing, and the other built on the classical concepts of random utility in economics and discrimination thresholds in psychophysics. We show that all three modeling schemes can accommodate key behavioral regularities in intertemporal choice. When empirical choice and response time data were fit simultaneously, the models built on random utility and discrimination thresholds performed best. The results also indicated substantial individual differences in the dynamics underlying intertemporal choice. Finally, model recovery analyses demonstrated the benefits of including both choice and response time data for more accurate model selection on the individual level. The present work shows how the classical concept of random utility can be extended to incorporate response dynamics in intertemporal choice. Moreover, the results suggest that this approach offers a successful alternative to the dominating evidence accumulation approach when modeling the dynamics of decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
7 Mass casualty incidents: a review of triage severity planning assumptions.
Hunt, Paul
2017-12-01
Recent events involving a significant number of casualties have emphasised the importance of appropriate preparation for receiving hospitals, especially Emergency Departments, during the initial response phase of a major incident. Development of a mass casualty resilience and response framework in the Northern Trauma Network included a review of existing planning assumptions in order to ensure effective resource allocation, both in local receiving hospitals and system-wide.Existing planning assumptions regarding categorisation by triage level are generally stated as a ratio for P1:P2:P3 of 25%:25%:50% of the total number of injured survivors. This may significantly over-, or underestimate, the number in each level of severity in the case of a large-scale incident. A pilot literature review was conducted of the available evidence from historical incidents in order to gather data regarding the confirmed number of overall casualties, 'critical' cases, admitted cases, and non-urgent or discharged cases. This data was collated and grouped by mechanism in order to calculate an appropriate severity ratio for each incident type. 12 articles regarding mass casualty incidents from the last two decades were identified covering three main incident types: (1) Mass transportation crash, (2) Building fire, and (3) Bomb and related terrorist attacks and involving a total of 3615 injured casualties. The overall mortality rate was calculated as 12.3%. Table 1 summarises the available patient casualty data from each of the specific incidents reported and calculated proportions of critical ('P1'), admitted ('P2'), and non-urgent or ambulatory cases ('P3'). Despite the heterogeneity of data and range of incident type there is sufficient evidence to suggest that current planning assumptions are incorrect and a more refined model is required. An important finding is the variation in proportion of critical cases depending upon the mechanism. For example, a greater than expected proportion
Quantum kinetic Heisenberg models: a unique dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Timonen, J.; Pilling, D.J.; Bullough, R.K.
1986-01-01
We suggest that the dynamics Glauber embodied in his kinetic Ising model can be introduced similarly and in an apparently unique way, into the quantum statistical mechanics of the quantum-integrable models like the Heisenberg, sine-Gordon and Massive Thirring models. The latter may suggest an extension of the theory to unique kinetic Ising models in two dimensions. The kinetic repulsive bose gas which is studied in detail in the steady state seems to be a solvable kinetic model. (author)
Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling
Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gérard H. E.
2009-04-01
In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.
Swarm Intelligence for Urban Dynamics Modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghnemat, Rawan; Bertelle, Cyrille; Duchamp, Gerard H. E.
2009-01-01
In this paper, we propose swarm intelligence algorithms to deal with dynamical and spatial organization emergence. The goal is to model and simulate the developement of spatial centers using multi-criteria. We combine a decentralized approach based on emergent clustering mixed with spatial constraints or attractions. We propose an extension of the ant nest building algorithm with multi-center and adaptive process. Typically, this model is suitable to analyse and simulate urban dynamics like gentrification or the dynamics of the cultural equipment in urban area.
Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jamie C. Gorman
2017-07-01
Full Text Available By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals in the context of teams, (c describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area.
Energy Balance Models and Planetary Dynamics
Domagal-Goldman, Shawn
2012-01-01
We know that planetary dynamics can have a significant affect on the climate of planets. Planetary dynamics dominate the glacial-interglacial periods on Earth, leaving a significant imprint on the geological record. They have also been demonstrated to have a driving influence on the climates of other planets in our solar system. We should therefore expect th.ere to be similar relationships on extrasolar planets. Here we describe a simple energy balance model that can predict the growth and thickness of glaciers, and their feedbacks on climate. We will also describe model changes that we have made to include planetary dynamics effects. This is the model we will use at the start of our collaboration to handle the influence of dynamics on climate.
Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edson Crescitelli
2009-04-01
Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings
Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.
Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng
2009-01-01
Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.
Information Dynamics in Networks: Models and Algorithms
2016-09-13
Information Dynamics in Networks: Models and Algorithms In this project, we investigated how network structure interplays with higher level processes in...Models and Algorithms Report Title In this project, we investigated how network structure interplays with higher level processes in online social...Received Paper 1.00 2.00 3.00 . A Note on Modeling Retweet Cascades on Twitter, Workshop on Algorithms and Models for the Web Graph. 09-DEC-15
Dynamics of the standard model
Donoghue, John F; Holstein, Barry R
2014-01-01
Describing the fundamental theory of particle physics and its applications, this book provides a detailed account of the Standard Model, focusing on techniques that can produce information about real observed phenomena. The book begins with a pedagogic account of the Standard Model, introducing essential techniques such as effective field theory and path integral methods. It then focuses on the use of the Standard Model in the calculation of physical properties of particles. Rigorous methods are emphasized, but other useful models are also described. This second edition has been updated to include recent theoretical and experimental advances, such as the discovery of the Higgs boson. A new chapter is devoted to the theoretical and experimental understanding of neutrinos, and major advances in CP violation and electroweak physics have been given a modern treatment. This book is valuable to graduate students and researchers in particle physics, nuclear physics and related fields.
Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models
Pankratz, Alan
2012-01-01
One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.
Dynamic load modeling using neural networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ferreira, C.; Silva, A.P. Alves da; Torres, G. Lambert [Escola Federal de Engenharia de Itajuba, MG (Brazil). Inst. de Engenharia Eletrica
1996-07-01
Accurate dynamic load models allow more precise calculations of power system controls and stability limits. System identification methods can be applied to estimate load models based on measurements. Parametric and nonparametric are the two classes in system identification methods. The parametric approach has been the only one used for load modeling so far. In this paper, the performance of a nonparametric load model based on the functional polynomial artificial neural network is compared with a linear model and with the popular Zip model. The impact of clustering different load compositions is also investigated. Substation buses (138 kV) from the Brazilian system feeding important industrial consumers have been modeled. (author)
Automated adaptive inference of phenomenological dynamical models
Daniels, Bryan
Understanding the dynamics of biochemical systems can seem impossibly complicated at the microscopic level: detailed properties of every molecular species, including those that have not yet been discovered, could be important for producing macroscopic behavior. The profusion of data in this area has raised the hope that microscopic dynamics might be recovered in an automated search over possible models, yet the combinatorial growth of this space has limited these techniques to systems that contain only a few interacting species. We take a different approach inspired by coarse-grained, phenomenological models in physics. Akin to a Taylor series producing Hooke's Law, forgoing microscopic accuracy allows us to constrain the search over dynamical models to a single dimension. This makes it feasible to infer dynamics with very limited data, including cases in which important dynamical variables are unobserved. We name our method Sir Isaac after its ability to infer the dynamical structure of the law of gravitation given simulated planetary motion data. Applying the method to output from a microscopically complicated but macroscopically simple biological signaling model, it is able to adapt the level of detail to the amount of available data. Finally, using nematode behavioral time series data, the method discovers an effective switch between behavioral attractors after the application of a painful stimulus.
Experience in the management of the mass casualty from the ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2015-09-21
Sep 21, 2015 ... Background: On the 17 of January 2010, a sectarian crisis broke out in Jos the capital of Plateau state, Nigeria. It created a mass casualty situation in the Jos University Teaching Hospital. We present the result of the hospital management of that mass casualty incident. Objective: To share our experience in ...
The Casualty Actuarial Society: Helping Universities Train Future Actuaries
Boa, J. Michael; Gorvett, Rick
2014-01-01
The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) believes that the most effective way to advance the actuarial profession is to work in partnership with universities. The CAS stands ready to assist universities in creating or enhancing courses and curricula associated with property/casualty actuarial science. CAS resources for university actuarial science…
the bulhoek massacre: origins, casualties, reactions and historical ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
their illegal squatting at Bulhoek and the events of 24 May 1921. The second article is entitled: Theprice of fanaticism: the casualties of the Bulhoek massacre. It focuses on the casualties of the massacre on the side of the Israelites and shows that the high number of. Israelites who lost their lives during the incident was due ...
46 CFR 197.484 - Notice of casualty.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notice of casualty. 197.484 Section 197.484 Shipping... GENERAL PROVISIONS Commercial Diving Operations Records § 197.484 Notice of casualty. (a) In addition to... by this section is not required if the written report required by § 197.486 is submitted within 5...
46 CFR 197.488 - Retention of records after casualty.
2010-10-01
... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Retention of records after casualty. 197.488 Section 197... HEALTH STANDARDS GENERAL PROVISIONS Commercial Diving Operations Records § 197.488 Retention of records... casualty is made under § 197.484 shall retain all records onboard that are maintained on the vessel or...
Field based model for pedestrian dynamics
Yu, Bin; Zhang, Michael; Wang, Zhongren
2018-03-01
A pedestrian’s physical movement is simulated as a response to the pedestrian subjective evaluation of the objective environment. The objective environment is modeled by presumed fields statically or dynamically superposed. Regulation functions, which consider not only force caused by presumed fields but also local crowd densities around pedestrians, are introduced for consideration of pedestrians’ intelligence. Numerical experiments indicate that the model can be calibrated to reproduce a fundamental diagram that matches an empirical one proposed by Weidmann. Such experiments prove the model to be a useful tool for study of pedestrian dynamics.
Dynamic optimization deterministic and stochastic models
Hinderer, Karl; Stieglitz, Michael
2016-01-01
This book explores discrete-time dynamic optimization and provides a detailed introduction to both deterministic and stochastic models. Covering problems with finite and infinite horizon, as well as Markov renewal programs, Bayesian control models and partially observable processes, the book focuses on the precise modelling of applications in a variety of areas, including operations research, computer science, mathematics, statistics, engineering, economics and finance. Dynamic Optimization is a carefully presented textbook which starts with discrete-time deterministic dynamic optimization problems, providing readers with the tools for sequential decision-making, before proceeding to the more complicated stochastic models. The authors present complete and simple proofs and illustrate the main results with numerous examples and exercises (without solutions). With relevant material covered in four appendices, this book is completely self-contained.
Online Learning of Industrial Manipulators' Dynamics Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Polydoros, Athanasios
2017-01-01
The robotics industry has introduced light-weight compliant manipulators to increase the safety during human-robot interaction. This characteristic is achieved by replacing the stiff actuators of the traditional robots with compliant ones which creates challenges in the analytical derivation...... of the dynamics models. Those mainly derive from physics-based methods and thus they are based on physical properties which are hard to be calculated. In this thesis, is presented, a novel online machine learning approach which is able to model both inverse and forward dynamics models of industrial manipulators......, it was compared with multiple other state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms. Moreover, the thesis presents the application of the proposed learning method on robot control for achieving trajectory execution while learning the inverse dynamics models on-the-fly . Also it is presented the application...
Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
van der Wel, Michel; Ozturk, Sait R.; Dijk, Dick van
The implied volatility surface is the collection of volatilities implied by option contracts for different strike prices and time-to-maturity. We study factor models to capture the dynamics of this three-dimensional implied volatility surface. Three model types are considered to examine desirable...
Hierarchical Structured Model for Nonlinear Dynamical Processes ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The mathematical representation of the process, in this context, is by a set of linear stochastic differential equations (SDE) with unique solutions. The problem of realization is that of constructing the dynamical system by looking at the problem of scientific model building. In model building, one must be able to calculate the ...
Dynamic spatial panels : models, methods, and inferences
Elhorst, J. Paul
This paper provides a survey of the existing literature on the specification and estimation of dynamic spatial panel data models, a collection of models for spatial panels extended to include one or more of the following variables and/or error terms: a dependent variable lagged in time, a dependent
Dynamic modeling of the INAPRO aquaponic system
Karimanzira, Divas; Keesman, Karel J.; Kloas, Werner; Baganz, Daniela; Rauschenbach, Thomas
2016-01-01
The use of modeling techniques to analyze aquaponics systems is demonstrated with an example of dynamic modeling for the production of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicon) using the innovative double recirculating aquaponic system ASTAF-PRO. For the management
Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis
Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan
2013-01-01
These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators
Dynamical modeling of surface tension
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brackbill, J.U.; Kothe, D.B.
1996-01-01
In a recent review it is said that free-surface flows ''represent some of the difficult remaining challenges in computational fluid dynamics''. There has been progress with the development of new approaches to treating interfaces, such as the level-set method and the improvement of older methods such as the VOF method. A common theme of many of the new developments has been the regularization of discontinuities at the interface. One example of this approach is the continuum surface force (CSF) formulation for surface tension, which replaces the surface stress given by Laplace's equation by an equivalent volume force. Here, we describe how CSF might be made more useful. Specifically, we consider a derivation of the CSF equations from a minimization of surface energy as outlined by Jacqmin. This reformulation suggests that if one eliminates the computation of curvature in terms of a unit normal vector, parasitic currents may be eliminated For this reformulation to work, it is necessary that transition region thickness be controlled. Various means for this, in addition to the one discussed by Jacqmin are discussed
Nonlinear dynamic phenomena in the beer model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mosekilde, Erik; Laugesen, Jakob Lund
2007-01-01
The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we ...... in models that use piecewise-linear functions to represent nonlinearities are likely to show similar qualitative differences from the bifurcations known from smooth systems.......The production-distribution system or "beer game" is one of the most well-known system dynamics models. Notorious for the complex dynamics it produces, the beer game has been used for nearly five decades to illustrate how structure generates behavior and to explore human decision making. Here we...... present a formal bifurcation analysis to analyse the complex dynamics produced by the model. Consistent with the rules of the game, the model constitutes a piecewise-linear map with nonlinearities arising from non-negativity constraints. The bifurcations that occur in piecewise-linear systems...
Modelling biased human trust dynamics
Hoogendoorn, M.; Jaffry, S.W.; Maanen, P.P. van; Treur, J.
2013-01-01
Abstract. Within human trust related behaviour, according to the literature from the domains of Psychology and Social Sciences often non-rational behaviour can be observed. Current trust models that have been developed typically do not incorporate non-rational elements in the trust formation
Modelling oxygen transfer using dynamic alpha factors.
Jiang, Lu-Man; Garrido-Baserba, Manel; Nolasco, Daniel; Al-Omari, Ahmed; DeClippeleir, Haydee; Murthy, Sudhir; Rosso, Diego
2017-11-01
Due to the importance of wastewater aeration in meeting treatment requirements and due to its elevated energy intensity, it is important to describe the real nature of an aeration system to improve design and specification, performance prediction, energy consumption, and process sustainability. Because organic loadings drive aeration efficiency to its lowest value when the oxygen demand (energy) is the highest, the implications of considering their dynamic nature on energy costs are of utmost importance. A dynamic model aimed at identifying conservation opportunities is presented. The model developed describes the correlation between the COD concentration and the α factor in activated sludge. Using the proposed model, the aeration efficiency is calculated as a function of the organic loading (i.e. COD). This results in predictions of oxygen transfer values that are more realistic than the traditional method of assuming constant α values. The model was applied to two water resource recovery facilities, and was calibrated and validated with time-sensitive databases. Our improved aeration model structure increases the quality of prediction of field data through the recognition of the dynamic nature of the alpha factor (α) as a function of the applied oxygen demand. For the cases presented herein, the model prediction of airflow improved by 20-35% when dynamic α is used. The proposed model offers a quantitative tool for the prediction of energy demand and for minimizing aeration design uncertainty. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modeling the Dynamics of Compromised Networks
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Soper, B; Merl, D M
2011-09-12
Accurate predictive models of compromised networks would contribute greatly to improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the detection and control of network attacks. Compartmental epidemiological models have been applied to modeling attack vectors such as viruses and worms. We extend the application of these models to capture a wider class of dynamics applicable to cyber security. By making basic assumptions regarding network topology we use multi-group epidemiological models and reaction rate kinetics to model the stochastic evolution of a compromised network. The Gillespie Algorithm is used to run simulations under a worst case scenario in which the intruder follows the basic connection rates of network traffic as a method of obfuscation.
Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield
2016-01-13
As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.
Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions
2015-09-30
1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Modeling Gas Dynamics in California Sea Lions Andreas...California sea lions . The model will be calibrated against measured arterial and venous PO2 levels from California sea lions , and estimate the error between...existing model with new species-specific parameter estimates for California sea lions . Aim 2: Compare estimated and measured arterial and venous
Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics
Peng, Mei; He, Xing; Huang, Junjian; Dong, Tao
2013-01-01
Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that th...
Nonparametric and semiparametric dynamic additive regression models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheike, Thomas Harder; Martinussen, Torben
Dynamic additive regression models provide a flexible class of models for analysis of longitudinal data. The approach suggested in this work is suited for measurements obtained at random time points and aims at estimating time-varying effects. Both fully nonparametric and semiparametric models can...... in special cases. We investigate the finite sample properties of the estimators and conclude that the asymptotic results are valid for even samll samples....
Modeling and interpreting mesoscale network dynamics.
Khambhati, Ankit N; Sizemore, Ann E; Betzel, Richard F; Bassett, Danielle S
2017-06-20
Recent advances in brain imaging techniques, measurement approaches, and storage capacities have provided an unprecedented supply of high temporal resolution neural data. These data present a remarkable opportunity to gain a mechanistic understanding not just of circuit structure, but also of circuit dynamics, and its role in cognition and disease. Such understanding necessitates a description of the raw observations, and a delineation of computational models and mathematical theories that accurately capture fundamental principles behind the observations. Here we review recent advances in a range of modeling approaches that embrace the temporally-evolving interconnected structure of the brain and summarize that structure in a dynamic graph. We describe recent efforts to model dynamic patterns of connectivity, dynamic patterns of activity, and patterns of activity atop connectivity. In the context of these models, we review important considerations in statistical testing, including parametric and non-parametric approaches. Finally, we offer thoughts on careful and accurate interpretation of dynamic graph architecture, and outline important future directions for method development. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Dynamic Modeling of Solar Dynamic Components and Systems
Hochstein, John I.; Korakianitis, T.
1992-01-01
The purpose of this grant was to support NASA in modeling efforts to predict the transient dynamic and thermodynamic response of the space station solar dynamic power generation system. In order to meet the initial schedule requirement of providing results in time to support installation of the system as part of the initial phase of space station, early efforts were executed with alacrity and often in parallel. Initially, methods to predict the transient response of a Rankine as well as a Brayton cycle were developed. Review of preliminary design concepts led NASA to select a regenerative gas-turbine cycle using a helium-xenon mixture as the working fluid and, from that point forward, the modeling effort focused exclusively on that system. Although initial project planning called for a three year period of performance, revised NASA schedules moved system installation to later and later phases of station deployment. Eventually, NASA selected to halt development of the solar dynamic power generation system for space station and to reduce support for this project to two-thirds of the original level.
Dynamic Models of Insurgent Activity
2014-05-19
IKENET and the Enron e-‐ mail datasets. We show that the self-‐exciting models adequately capture major...the West Point and Enron networks. This work is under review at J. Amer. Stat. Assoc. Agent
Modeling Dynamic Regulatory Processes in Stroke
McDermott, Jason E.; Jarman, Kenneth; Taylor, Ronald; Lancaster, Mary; Shankaran, Harish; Vartanian, Keri B.; Stevens, Susan L.; Stenzel-Poore, Mary P.; Sanfilippo, Antonio
2012-01-01
The ability to examine the behavior of biological systems in silico has the potential to greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in diseases, such as stroke, where in vivo analysis is time intensive and costly. In this paper we describe an approach for in silico examination of responses of the blood transcriptome to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from the data relating these functional clusters to each other in terms of their regulatory influence on one another. Dynamic models were developed by coupling these ODEs into a model that simulates the expression of regulated functional clusters. By changing the magnitude of gene expression in the initial input state it was possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions since the dynamic model only requires an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. We discuss the implications of our models on neuroprotection in stroke, explore the limitations of the approach, and report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different neuroprotective paradigms. PMID:23071432
Modeling dynamic regulatory processes in stroke.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jason E McDermott
Full Text Available The ability to examine the behavior of biological systems in silico has the potential to greatly accelerate the pace of discovery in diseases, such as stroke, where in vivo analysis is time intensive and costly. In this paper we describe an approach for in silico examination of responses of the blood transcriptome to neuroprotective agents and subsequent stroke through the development of dynamic models of the regulatory processes observed in the experimental gene expression data. First, we identified functional gene clusters from these data. Next, we derived ordinary differential equations (ODEs from the data relating these functional clusters to each other in terms of their regulatory influence on one another. Dynamic models were developed by coupling these ODEs into a model that simulates the expression of regulated functional clusters. By changing the magnitude of gene expression in the initial input state it was possible to assess the behavior of the networks through time under varying conditions since the dynamic model only requires an initial starting state, and does not require measurement of regulatory influences at each time point in order to make accurate predictions. We discuss the implications of our models on neuroprotection in stroke, explore the limitations of the approach, and report that an optimized dynamic model can provide accurate predictions of overall system behavior under several different neuroprotective paradigms.
Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.
Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J
2017-09-16
Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.
Modeling the dynamics of dissent
Lee, Eun; Holme, Petter; Lee, Sang Hoon
2017-11-01
We investigate the formation of opinion against authority in an authoritarian society composed of agents with different levels of authority. We explore a ;dissenting; opinion, held by lower-ranking, obedient, or less authoritative people, spreading in an environment of an ;affirmative; opinion held by authoritative leaders. A real-world example would be a corrupt society where people revolt against such leaders, but it can be applied to more general situations. In our model, agents can change their opinion depending on their authority relative to their neighbors and their own confidence level. In addition, with a certain probability, agents can override the affirmative opinion to take the dissenting opinion of a neighbor. Based on analytic derivation and numerical simulations, we observe that both the network structure and heterogeneity in authority, and their correlation, significantly affect the possibility of the dissenting opinion to spread through the population. In particular, the dissenting opinion is suppressed when the authority distribution is very heterogeneous and there exists a positive correlation between the authority and the number of neighbors of people (degree). Except for such an extreme case, though, spreading of the dissenting opinion takes place when people have the tendency to override the authority to hold the dissenting opinion, but the dissenting opinion can take a long time to spread to the entire society, depending on the model parameters. We argue that the internal social structure of agents sets the scale of the time to reach consensus, based on the analysis of the underlying structural properties of opinion spreading.
Dynamical properties of the Rabi model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, Binglu; Zhou, Huili; Chen, Shujie; Xianlong, Gao; Wang, Kelin
2017-01-01
We study the dynamical properties of the quantum Rabi model using a systematic expansion method. Based on the observation that the parity symmetry of the Rabi model is kept during evolution of the states, we decompose the initial state and the time-dependent one into positive and negative parity parts expanded by superposition of the coherent states. The evolutions of the corresponding positive and the negative parities are obtained, in which the expansion coefficients in the dynamical equations are known from the derived recurrence relation. (paper)
Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng
2008-01-01
In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies
Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica
2008-07-01
Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)
Modeling emotional dynamics : currency versus field.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sallach, D .L.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Chicago
2008-08-01
Randall Collins has introduced a simplified model of emotional dynamics in which emotional energy, heightened and focused by interaction rituals, serves as a common denominator for social exchange: a generic form of currency, except that it is active in a far broader range of social transactions. While the scope of this theory is attractive, the specifics of the model remain unconvincing. After a critical assessment of the currency theory of emotion, a field model of emotion is introduced that adds expressiveness by locating emotional valence within its cognitive context, thereby creating an integrated orientation field. The result is a model which claims less in the way of motivational specificity, but is more satisfactory in modeling the dynamic interaction between cognitive and emotional orientations at both individual and social levels.
Dynamical Frustration in ANNNI Model and Annealing
Sen, Parongama; Das, Pratap K.
Simulated annealing is usually applied to systems with frustration, like spin glasses and optimisation problems, where the energy landscape is complex with many spurious minima. There are certain other systems, however, which have very simple energy landscape picture and ground states, but still the system fails to reach its ground state during a energy-lowering dynamical process. This situation corresponds to "dynamical frustration ". We have specifically considered the case of the axial next nearest neighbour (ANNNI) chain, where such a situation is encountered. In Sect. II, we elaborate the notion of dynamic frustration with examples and in Sect. III, the dynamics in ANNNI model is discussed in detail. The results of application of the classical and quantum annealing are discussed in Sects. IV and V. Summary and some concluding comments are given in the last section.
Grammar resources for modelling dialogue dynamically.
Gargett, Andrew; Gregoromichelaki, Eleni; Kempson, Ruth; Purver, Matthew; Sato, Yo
2009-12-01
This paper argues that by analysing language as a mechanism for growth of information (Cann et al. in The Dynamics of Language, Elsevier, Oxford, 2005; Kempson et al. in Dynamic Syntax, Blackwell, Oxford, 2001), not only does a unitary basis for ellipsis become possible, otherwise thought to be irredeemably heterogeneous, but also a whole range of sub-types of ellipsis, otherwise thought to be unique to dialogue, emerge as natural consequences of use of language in context. Dialogue fragment types modelled include reformulations, clarification requests, extensions, and acknowledgements. Buttressing this analysis, we show how incremental use of fragments serves to progressively narrow down the otherwise mushrooming interpretational alternatives in language use, and hence is central to fluent conversational interaction. We conclude that, by its ability to reflect dialogue dynamics as a core phenomenon of language use, a grammar with inbuilt parsing dynamics opens up the potential for analysing language as a mechanism for communicative interaction.
Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model: DREAM
Reeves, G. D.; Chen, Y.; Cunningham, G. S.; Friedel, R. W. H.; Henderson, M. G.; Jordanova, V. K.; Koller, J.; Morley, S. K.; Thomsen, M. F.; Zaharia, S.
2012-03-01
The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) was developed to provide accurate, global specification of the Earth's radiation belts and to better understand the physical processes that control radiation belt structure and dynamics. DREAM is designed using a modular software approach in order to provide a computational framework that makes it easy to change components such as the global magnetic field model, radiation belt dynamics model, boundary conditions, etc. This paper provides a broad overview of the DREAM model and a summary of some of the principal results to date. We describe the structure of the DREAM model, describe the five major components, and illustrate the various options that are available for each component. We discuss how the data assimilation is performed and the data preprocessing and postprocessing that are required for producing the final DREAM outputs. We describe how we apply global magnetic field models for conversion between flux and phase space density and, in particular, the benefits of using a self-consistent, coupled ring current-magnetic field model. We discuss some of the results from DREAM including testing of boundary condition assumptions and effects of adding a source term to radial diffusion models. We also describe some of the testing and validation of DREAM and prospects for future development.
A Stochastic Model for Malaria Transmission Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rachel Waema Mbogo
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Malaria is one of the three most dangerous infectious diseases worldwide (along with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. In this paper we compare the disease dynamics of the deterministic and stochastic models in order to determine the effect of randomness in malaria transmission dynamics. Relationships between the basic reproduction number for malaria transmission dynamics between humans and mosquitoes and the extinction thresholds of corresponding continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under certain assumptions. The stochastic model is formulated using the continuous-time discrete state Galton-Watson branching process (CTDSGWbp. The reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or die out. Thresholds for disease extinction from stochastic models contribute crucial knowledge on disease control and elimination and mitigation of infectious diseases. Analytical and numerical results show some significant differences in model predictions between the stochastic and deterministic models. In particular, we find that malaria outbreak is more likely if the disease is introduced by infected mosquitoes as opposed to infected humans. These insights demonstrate the importance of a policy or intervention focusing on controlling the infected mosquito population if the control of malaria is to be realized.
Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.
Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E
2016-01-01
Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.
Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*
Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.
2015-01-01
Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859
33 CFR 174.106 - State casualty reporting system optional sections.
2010-07-01
... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State casualty reporting system... HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) BOATING SAFETY STATE NUMBERING AND CASUALTY REPORTING SYSTEMS Casualty Reporting System Requirements § 174.106 State casualty reporting system optional sections. In addition to...
System and mathematical modeling of quadrotor dynamics
Goodman, Jacob M.; Kim, Jinho; Gadsden, S. Andrew; Wilkerson, Stephen A.
2015-05-01
Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are becoming increasingly visible in our daily lives; and range in operation from search and rescue, monitoring hazardous environments, and to the delivery of goods. One of the most popular UAS are based on a quad-rotor design. These are typically small devices that rely on four propellers for lift and movement. Quad-rotors are inherently unstable, and rely on advanced control methodologies to keep them operating safely and behaving in a predictable and desirable manner. The control of these devices can be enhanced and improved by making use of an accurate dynamic model. In this paper, we examine a simple quadrotor model, and note some of the additional dynamic considerations that were left out. We then compare simulation results of the simple model with that of another comprehensive model.
New concepts for dynamic plant uptake models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rein, Arno; Legind, Charlotte Nielsen; Trapp, Stefan
2011-01-01
Models for the prediction of chemical uptake into plants are widely applied tools for human and wildlife exposure assessment, pesticide design and for environmental biotechnology such as phytoremediation. Steady-state considerations are often applied, because they are simple and have a small data...... need. However, often the emission pattern is non-steady. Examples are pesticide spraying, or the application of manure and sewage sludge on agricultural fields. In these scenarios, steady-state solutions are not valid, and dynamic simulation is required. We compared different approaches for dynamic...... modelling of plant uptake in order to identify relevant processes and timescales of processes in the soil–plant–air system. Based on the outcome, a new model concept for plant uptake models was developed, approximating logistic growth and coupling transpiration to growing plant mass. The underlying system...
On the mathematical modeling of soccer dynamics
Machado, J. A. Tenreiro; Lopes, António M.
2017-12-01
This paper addresses the modeling and dynamical analysis of soccer teams. Two modeling perspectives based on the concepts of fractional calculus are adopted. In the first, the power law behavior and fractional-order integration are explored. In the second, a league season is interpreted in the light of a system where the teams are represented by objects (particles) that evolve in time and interact (collide) at successive rounds with dynamics driven by the outcomes of the matches. The two proposed models embed implicitly details of players and coaches, or strategical and tactical maneuvers during the matches. Therefore, the scale of observation focuses on the teams behavior in the scope of the observed variables. Data characterizing two European soccer leagues in the season 2015-2016 are adopted and processed. The model leads to the emergence of patterns that are analyzed and interpreted.
BWR stability using a reducing dynamical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ballestrin Bolea, J. M.; Blazquez Martinez, J. B.
1990-01-01
BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical structure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations is non-linear. Simple parametric calculation of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author)
Record Dynamics in the Parking Lot Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sibani, Paolo; Boettcher, Stefan
2016-01-01
We study the aging dynamics in the parking lot model of granular relaxation with extensive numerical simulations. Our results reveal the log-Poisson statistics in the progression of intermittent events that lead to ever slower increases in the density. Defining clusters as domains of parked cars...
Learning About Learning in Dynamic Economic Models
Kendrick, D.A.; Amman, H.M.; Tucci, M.P.
This chapter of the Handbook of Computational Economics is mostly about research on active learning and is confined to discussion of learning in dynamic models in which the systems equations are linear, the criterion function is quadratic and the additive noise terms are Gaussian. Though there is
Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin
1998-01-01
This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...
A Stochastic Dynamic Model of Computer Viruses
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chunming Zhang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available A stochastic computer virus spread model is proposed and its dynamic behavior is fully investigated. Specifically, we prove the existence and uniqueness of positive solutions, and the stability of the virus-free equilibrium and viral equilibrium by constructing Lyapunov functions and applying Ito's formula. Some numerical simulations are finally given to illustrate our main results.
Modelling the Dynamics of Emotional Awareness
Thilakarathne, D.J.; Treur, J.; Schaub, T.
2014-01-01
In this paper, based on literature from Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience, a computational agent model is introduced incorporating the role of emotional awareness states in the dynamics of action generation. More specifically, it covers both automatic, unconscious (bottom-up) and more cognitive
Some dynamical aspects of interacting quintessence model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Binayak S Choudhury
2018-03-16
Mar 16, 2018 ... show the phase-space analysis for the 'best-fit Universe' or concordance model. In our analysis, we observe the existence of late-time scaling attractors. Keywords. Accelerated expansion of the Universe; quintessence; dynamical system; Friedmann–Lemaitre–. Robertson–Walker Universe; interacting ...
Dynamic Model Development for Interplanetary Navigation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eun-Seo Park
2005-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, the dynamic model development for interplanetary navigation has been discussed. The Cowell method for special perturbation theories was employed to develop an interplanetary trajectory propagator including the perturbations due to geopotential, the Earth's dynamic polar motion, the gravity of the Sun, the Moon and the other planets in the solar system, the relativistic effect of the Sun, solar radiation pressure, and atmospheric drag. The equations of motion in dynamic model were numerically integrated using Adams-Cowell 11th order predictor-corrector method. To compare the influences of each perturbation, trajectory propagation was performed using initial transfer orbit elements of the Mars Express mission launched in 2003, because it can be the criterion to choose proper perturbation models for navigation upon required accuracy. To investigate the performance of dynamic model developed, it was tested whether the spacecraft can reach the Mars. The interplanetary navigation tool developed in this study demonstrated the spacecraft entering the Mars SOI(Sphere of Influence and its velocity relative to the Mars was less than the escape velocity of the Mars, hence, the spacecraft can arrive at the target planet. The obtained results were also verified by using the AGI Satellite Tool Kit. It is concluded that the developed program is suitable for supporting interplanetary spacecraft mission for a future Korean Mars mission.
Nearly Unbiased Estimationin Dynamic Panel Data Models
M.A. Carree (Martin)
2002-01-01
textabstractThis paper introduces two easy to calculate estimators with desirable properties for the autoregressive parameter in dynamic panel data models. The estimators are (nearly) unbiased and perform satisfactorily even for small samples in either the time-series or cross-section dimension.
Protective measures while treating CWA casualties
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Medema, J.
2009-01-01
When Chemical Warfare agent casualties are brought into a medical facility they are usually decontaminated before receiving treatment. The decontamination can range from simply undressing to complex entry/exit procedures for a collective protection medical shelter. It is expected that the decontamination has reduced the contamination to such a degree that there is no more hazard for the medical personnel from emanating CWA vapors. However there is quite some evidence that this is usually not the case and additional protective measures are required in order to have the medical staff operating unhindered and not endangered by albeit low but still hazardous CWA vapor concentrations that at the end of the day would have adverse effects on the capabilities of the medical staff. In the paper some simple but effective means will be described that will reduce the exposure of the medical staff to.(author)
Modeling of Reactor Kinetics and Dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Matthew Johnson; Scott Lucas; Pavel Tsvetkov
2010-09-01
In order to model a full fuel cycle in a nuclear reactor, it is necessary to simulate the short time-scale kinetic behavior of the reactor as well as the long time-scale dynamics that occur with fuel burnup. The former is modeled using the point kinetics equations, while the latter is modeled by coupling fuel burnup equations with the kinetics equations. When the equations are solved simultaneously with a nonlinear equation solver, the end result is a code with the unique capability of modeling transients at any time during a fuel cycle.
The quantum Rabi model: solution and dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xie, Qiongtao; Zhong, Honghua; Lee, Chaohong; Batchelor, Murray T
2017-01-01
This article presents a review of recent developments on various aspects of the quantum Rabi model. Particular emphasis is given on the exact analytic solution obtained in terms of confluent Heun functions. The analytic solutions for various generalisations of the quantum Rabi model are also discussed. Results are also reviewed on the level statistics and the dynamics of the quantum Rabi model. The article concludes with an introductory overview of several experimental realisations of the quantum Rabi model. An outlook towards future developments is also given. (topical review)
Dynamic Modeling of CDS Index Tranche Spreads
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dorn, Jochen
This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamics for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. This model is useful for pricing options on tranches with future Issue Dates as well as for modeling...... options on structured credit derivatives. With the upcoming regulation of the CDS market in perspective, the model presented here is also an attempt to face the effects on pricing approaches provoked by an eventual Clearing Chamber . It becomes also possible to calibrate Index Tranche Options with bespoke...... tenors/tranche subordination to market data obtained by more liquid Index Tranche Options with standard characteristics....
Uncertainty and its propagation in dynamics models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Devooght, J.
1994-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to bring together some characteristics due to uncertainty when we deal with dynamic models and therefore to propagation of uncertainty. The respective role of uncertainty and inaccuracy is examined. A mathematical formalism based on Chapman-Kolmogorov equation allows to define a open-quotes subdynamicsclose quotes where the evolution equation takes the uncertainty into account. The problem of choosing or combining models is examined through a loss function associated to a decision
Bulk dynamics for interfacial growth models
Lopez, Cristobal; Garrido, Pedro L.; Santos, Francisco de los
2000-01-01
We study the influence of the bulk dynamics of a growing cluster of particles on the properties of its interface. First, we define a general bulk growth model by means of a continuum Master equation for the evolution of the bulk density field. This general model just considers an arbitrary addition of particles (though it can be easily generalized to consider subtraction) with no other physical restriction. The corresponding Langevin equation for this bulk density field is derived where the i...
Modeling dynamic functional connectivity using a wishart mixture model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard
2017-01-01
Dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) has recently become a popular way of tracking the temporal evolution of the brains functional integration. However, there does not seem to be a consensus on how to choose the complexity, i.e. number of brain states, and the time-scale of the dynamics, i.......e. the window length. In this work we use the Wishart Mixture Model (WMM) as a probabilistic model for dFC based on variational inference. The framework admits arbitrary window lengths and number of dynamic components and includes the static one-component model as a special case. We exploit that the WMM...... framework provides model selection by quantifying models generalization to new data. We use this to quantify the number of states within a prespecified window length. We further propose a heuristic procedure for choosing the window length based on contrasting for each window length the predictive...
Dynamic modeling of oil boom failure using computational fluid dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Goodman, R. H.; Brown, H. M.; An, C. F.; Rowe, R. D.
1997-01-01
Oil retention boom failure mechanisms have been identified and studied using computational fluid dynamics (CFD), a powerful modeling tool combining fluid dynamics and mathematics with high speed computer technology. This study utilized a commercially available CFD package, 'Fluent', to simulate the oil-water flow around a barrier. 'Drainage failure', 'droplet entrainment' and 'critical accumulation' were modeled using this software. Flow characteristics were found to be different for different failure mechanisms. In the drainage failure process, the oil slick was compressed against the barrier until the slick was deep enough for the oil to leak under the barrier. During boom failure due to droplet entrainment, the oil-water interface of the oil slick was wavy and unstable. During boom failure due to critical accumulation, the oil remained a single mass and moved under the barrier readily. The most significant observation, however, was that flow patterns around barriers are modified by the presence of oil. Therefore, towing and wave-conformity tests of booms will not be meaningful unless such tests are conducted with oil present. 15 refs., 11 figs
Direct modeling for computational fluid dynamics
Xu, Kun
2015-06-01
All fluid dynamic equations are valid under their modeling scales, such as the particle mean free path and mean collision time scale of the Boltzmann equation and the hydrodynamic scale of the Navier-Stokes (NS) equations. The current computational fluid dynamics (CFD) focuses on the numerical solution of partial differential equations (PDEs), and its aim is to get the accurate solution of these governing equations. Under such a CFD practice, it is hard to develop a unified scheme that covers flow physics from kinetic to hydrodynamic scales continuously because there is no such governing equation which could make a smooth transition from the Boltzmann to the NS modeling. The study of fluid dynamics needs to go beyond the traditional numerical partial differential equations. The emerging engineering applications, such as air-vehicle design for near-space flight and flow and heat transfer in micro-devices, do require further expansion of the concept of gas dynamics to a larger domain of physical reality, rather than the traditional distinguishable governing equations. At the current stage, the non-equilibrium flow physics has not yet been well explored or clearly understood due to the lack of appropriate tools. Unfortunately, under the current numerical PDE approach, it is hard to develop such a meaningful tool due to the absence of valid PDEs. In order to construct multiscale and multiphysics simulation methods similar to the modeling process of constructing the Boltzmann or the NS governing equations, the development of a numerical algorithm should be based on the first principle of physical modeling. In this paper, instead of following the traditional numerical PDE path, we introduce direct modeling as a principle for CFD algorithm development. Since all computations are conducted in a discretized space with limited cell resolution, the flow physics to be modeled has to be done in the mesh size and time step scales. Here, the CFD is more or less a direct
Dynamic Modeling of ThermoFluid Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jakob Munch
2003-01-01
The objective of the present study has been to developed dynamic models for two-phase flow in pipes (evaporation and condensation). Special attention has been given to modeling evaporators for refrigeration plant particular dry-expansion evaporators. Models of different complexity have been...... formulated. The different models deviate with respect to the detail¿s included and calculation time in connection with simulation. The models have been implemented in a new library named ThermoTwoPhase to the programming language Modelica. A test rig has been built with an evaporator instrumented in a way...... that the models can be validated against experimental data. The models developed van be used in connection with intelligent control of refrigerant flow to dry-expansion evaporators....
Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics
Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.
2017-10-01
This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.
A metapopulation model with Markovian landscape dynamics.
McVinish, R; Pollett, P K; Chan, Y S
2016-12-01
We study a variant of Hanski's incidence function model that allows habitat patch characteristics to vary over time following a Markov process. The widely studied case where patches are classified as either suitable or unsuitable is included as a special case. For large metapopulations, we determine a recursion for the probability that a given habitat patch is occupied. This recursion enables us to clarify the role of landscape dynamics in the survival of a metapopulation. In particular, we show that landscape dynamics affects the persistence and equilibrium level of the metapopulation primarily through its effect on the distribution of a local population's life span. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling
Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.
2017-06-01
Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.
Dynamic Circuit Model for Spintronic Devices
Alawein, Meshal
2017-01-09
In this work we propose a finite-difference scheme based circuit model of a general spintronic device and benchmark it with other models proposed for spintronic switching devices. Our model is based on the four-component spin circuit theory and utilizes the widely used coupled stochastic magnetization dynamics/spin transport framework. In addition to the steady-state analysis, this work offers a transient analysis of carrier transport. By discretizing the temporal and spatial derivatives to generate a linear system of equations, we derive new and simple finite-difference conductance matrices that can, to the first order, capture both static and dynamic behaviors of a spintronic device. We also discuss an extension of the spin modified nodal analysis (SMNA) for time-dependent situations based on the proposed scheme.
Friction modelling of preloaded tube contact dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hassan, M.A.; Rogers, R.J.
2005-01-01
Many loosely supported components are subjected to flow-induced vibration leading to localized wear. Life prediction depends on robust and accurate modelling of the nonlinear dynamics as the components interact with their supports. The output of such analysis is the component dynamic response and impact forces, including friction forces during stick-slip motions. Such results are used to determine the normal work rates, which are utilized to predict fretting wear damage. Accurate estimates of these parameters are essential. This paper presents simulations of a loosely supported fuel-channel tube subject to turbulence excitation. The effects of tube/support clearance and preload are investigated. Several friction models, including velocity-limited, spring-damper and force-balance are utilized. A comparison of these models is carried out to investigate their accuracy. The results show good agreement with experimental work rates when a simple iterative procedure to update the friction forces is used
Traffic flow dynamics data, models and simulation
Treiber, Martin
2013-01-01
This textbook provides a comprehensive and instructive coverage of vehicular traffic flow dynamics and modeling. It makes this fascinating interdisciplinary topic, which to date was only documented in parts by specialized monographs, accessible to a broad readership. Numerous figures and problems with solutions help the reader to quickly understand and practice the presented concepts. This book is targeted at students of physics and traffic engineering and, more generally, also at students and professionals in computer science, mathematics, and interdisciplinary topics. It also offers material for project work in programming and simulation at college and university level. The main part, after presenting different categories of traffic data, is devoted to a mathematical description of the dynamics of traffic flow, covering macroscopic models which describe traffic in terms of density, as well as microscopic many-particle models in which each particle corresponds to a vehicle and its driver. Focus chapters on ...
Friction modelling of preloaded tube contact dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hassan, M.A.; Rogers, R.J.
2004-01-01
Many loosely supported components are subjected to flow-induced vibration leading to localized wear. Life prediction depends on robust and accurate modelling of the nonlinear dynamics as the components interact with their supports. The output of such analysis is the component dynamic response and impact forces, including friction forces during stick-slip motions. Such results are used to determine the normal work rates, which are utilized to predict fretting wear damage. Accurate estimates of these parameters are essential. This paper presents simulations of a loosely supported fuel-channel tube subject to turbulence excitation. The effects of tube/support clearance and preload are investigated. Several friction models, including velocity-limited, spring-damper, and force-balance are utilized. A comparison of these models is carried out to investigate their accuracy. The results show good agreement with experimental work rates when a simple iterative procedure to update the friction forces is used. (authors)
Dynamic Intellectual Capital Model in a Company
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vladimir Shatrevich
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to indicate the relations between company’s value added (VA and intangible assets. Authors declare that Intellectual capital (IC is one of the most relevant intangibles for a company, and the concept with measurement, and the relation with value creation is necessary for modern markets. Since relationship between IC elements and VA are complicated, this paper is aimed to create a usable dynamic model for building company’s value added through intellectual capital. The model is incorporating that outputs from IC elements are not homogeneously received and made some contributions to dynamic nature of IC relation and VA. Variables that will help companies to evaluate contribution of each element of IC are added to the model. This paper emphasizes the importance of a company’s IC and the positive interaction between them in generating profits for company.
Complex networks under dynamic repair model
Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao
2018-01-01
Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.
Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models
Reusser, D.E.; Blume, T.; Schaefli, B.; Zehe, E.
2009-01-01
The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or
Needle Decompression of Tension Pneumothorax Tactical Combat Casualty Care Guideline Recommendations
2012-07-06
pleural space at either the second ICS at the MCL or the fourth or fifth ICS AAL and is not suitable for optimal use in ND. 1, 4 The majority of...Consider chest tube insertion if no improvement and/or long transport is anticipated. c. Most combat casualties do not require supplemental oxygen...JG, Kerr ST, et al.: Needle versus tube thoracostomy in a swine model of traumatic tension hemopneumpothorax Prehosp Emerg Care. 2009; 13:18-27 3
Dynamical model for retrieval of tram schedule
Nagatani, Takashi
2007-04-01
We present the dynamical model for retrieval of a tram schedule when trams arrive at stops slower or faster than the schedule. Trams speed up or stop shorter to retrieve the delay. The dynamics of the trams is expressed in terms of the nonlinear maps. We study the dynamical behavior of trams when they control the speed and stopping time to retrieve the schedule. The arrival times of trams exhibit the complex behavior with varying trips. The trams show the periodic and irregular (chaotic) motions even if there are no noises. The tram chaos is controlled by varying both stopping time and degree of speedup. The tram schedule is connected with the complex motions of trams. The region map (phase diagram) is shown to control the complex motions of trams.
A computational model for dynamic vision
Moezzi, Saied; Weymouth, Terry E.
1990-01-01
This paper describes a novel computational model for dynamic vision which promises to be both powerful and robust. Furthermore the paradigm is ideal for an active vision system where camera vergence changes dynamically. Its basis is the retinotopically indexed object-centered encoding of the early visual information. Specifically, the relative distances of objects to a set of referents is encoded in image registered maps. To illustrate the efficacy of the method, it is applied to the problem of dynamic stereo vision. Integration of depth information over multiple frames obtained by a moving robot generally requires precise information about the relative camera position from frame to frame. Usually, this information can only be approximated. The method facilitates the integration of depth information without direct use or knowledge of camera motion.
An introduction to modeling neuronal dynamics
Börgers, Christoph
2017-01-01
This book is intended as a text for a one-semester course on Mathematical and Computational Neuroscience for upper-level undergraduate and beginning graduate students of mathematics, the natural sciences, engineering, or computer science. An undergraduate introduction to differential equations is more than enough mathematical background. Only a slim, high school-level background in physics is assumed, and none in biology. Topics include models of individual nerve cells and their dynamics, models of networks of neurons coupled by synapses and gap junctions, origins and functions of population rhythms in neuronal networks, and models of synaptic plasticity. An extensive online collection of Matlab programs generating the figures accompanies the book. .
Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems
Raol, JR; Singh, J
2004-01-01
Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor
Dynamical Field Model of Hand Preference
Franceschetti, Donald R.; Cantalupo, Claudio
2000-11-01
Dynamical field models of information processing in the nervous system are being developed by a number of groups of psychologists and physicists working together to explain The details of behaviors exhibited by a number of animal species. Here we adapt such a model to the expression of hand preference in a small primate, the bushbaby (Otolemur garnetti) . The model provides a theoretical foundation for the interpretation of an experiment currently underway in which a several of these animals are forced to extend either right or left hand to retrieve a food item from a rotating turntable.
Five challenges in modelling interacting strain dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul S. Wikramaratna
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Population epidemiological models where hosts can be infected sequentially by different strains have the potential to help us understand many important diseases. Researchers have in recent years started to develop and use such models, but the extra layer of complexity from multiple strains brings with it many technical challenges. It is therefore hard to build models which have realistic assumptions yet are tractable. Here we outline some of the main challenges in this area. First we begin with the fundamental question of how to translate from complex small-scale dynamics within a host to useful population models. Next we consider the nature of so-called “strain space”. We describe two key types of host heterogeneities, and explain how models could help generate a better understanding of their effects. Finally, for diseases with many strains, we consider the challenge of modelling how immunity accumulates over multiple exposures.
Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Red-Horse, J.R.
1997-04-01
Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.
Towards dynamic genome-scale models.
Gilbert, David; Heiner, Monika; Jayaweera, Yasoda; Rohr, Christian
2017-10-13
The analysis of the dynamic behaviour of genome-scale models of metabolism (GEMs) currently presents considerable challenges because of the difficulties of simulating such large and complex networks. Bacterial GEMs can comprise about 5000 reactions and metabolites, and encode a huge variety of growth conditions; such models cannot be used without sophisticated tool support. This article is intended to aid modellers, both specialist and non-specialist in computerized methods, to identify and apply a suitable combination of tools for the dynamic behaviour analysis of large-scale metabolic designs. We describe a methodology and related workflow based on publicly available tools to profile and analyse whole-genome-scale biochemical models. We use an efficient approximative stochastic simulation method to overcome problems associated with the dynamic simulation of GEMs. In addition, we apply simulative model checking using temporal logic property libraries, clustering and data analysis, over time series of reaction rates and metabolite concentrations. We extend this to consider the evolution of reaction-oriented properties of subnets over time, including dead subnets and functional subsystems. This enables the generation of abstract views of the behaviour of these models, which can be large-up to whole genome in size-and therefore impractical to analyse informally by eye. We demonstrate our methodology by applying it to a reduced model of the whole-genome metabolism of Escherichia coli K-12 under different growth conditions. The overall context of our work is in the area of model-based design methods for metabolic engineering and synthetic biology. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.
Net-bottom Cage Inserts for Water Bird Casualties
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jackie Belle
2017-10-01
Full Text Available My Bright Idea is a net-bottomed cage insert, which is used to support pelagic avian casualties. The idea was designed and modified by the International Bird Rescue in California (Bird Rescue.
76 FR 8788 - Riverside Casualty, Inc.; Notice of Application
2011-02-15
... participant. Applicant submits that the joint arrangement between THC and RCI, which was designed to create...] Riverside Casualty, Inc.; Notice of Application February 8, 2011. AGENCY: Securities and Exchange Commission (``Commission''). [[Page 8789
Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model
Chaudhary, Nitin; Miller, Paul A.; Smith, Benjamin
2016-04-01
Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are an important platform to study past, present and future vegetation patterns together with associated biogeochemical cycles and climate feedbacks (e.g. Sitch et al. 2008, Smith et al. 2001). However, very few attempts have been made to simulate peatlands using DGVMs (Kleinen et al. 2012, Tang et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a). In the present study, we have improved the peatland dynamics in the state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) in order to understand the long-term evolution of northern peatland ecosystems and to assess the effect of changing climate on peatland carbon balance. We combined a dynamic multi-layer approach (Frolking et al. 2010, Hilbert et al. 2000) with soil freezing-thawing functionality (Ekici et al. 2015, Wania et al. 2009a) in LPJ-GUESS. The new model is named LPJ-GUESS Peatland (LPJ-GUESS-P) (Chaudhary et al. in prep). The model was calibrated and tested at the sub-arctic mire in Stordalen, Sweden, and the model was able to capture the reported long-term vegetation dynamics and peat accumulation patterns in the mire (Kokfelt et al. 2010). For evaluation, the model was run at 13 grid points across a north to south transect in Europe. The modelled peat accumulation values were found to be consistent with the published data for each grid point (Loisel et al. 2014). Finally, a series of additional experiments were carried out to investigate the vulnerability of high-latitude peatlands to climate change. We find that the Stordalen mire will sequester more carbon in the future due to milder and wetter climate conditions, longer growing seasons, and the carbon fertilization effect. References: - Chaudhary et al. (in prep.). Modelling Holocene peatland and permafrost dynamics with the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model - Ekici A, et al. 2015. Site-level model intercomparison of high latitude and high altitude soil thermal dynamics in tundra and barren landscapes. The Cryosphere 9: 1343
Modeling the dynamic characteristics of pneumatic muscle.
Reynolds, D B; Repperger, D W; Phillips, C A; Bandry, G
2003-03-01
A pneumatic muscle (PM) system was studied to determine whether a three-element model could describe its dynamics. As far as the authors are aware, this model has not been used to describe the dynamics of PM. A new phenomenological model consists of a contractile (force-generating) element, spring element, and damping element in parallel. The PM system was investigated using an apparatus that allowed precise and accurate actuation pressure (P) control by a linear servo-valve. Length change of the PM was measured by a linear potentiometer. Spring and damping element functions of P were determined by a static perturbation method at several constant P values. These results indicate that at constant P, PM behaves as a spring and damper in parallel. The contractile element function of P was determined by the response to a step input in P, using values of spring and damping elements from the perturbation study. The study showed that the resulting coefficient functions of the three-element model describe the dynamic response to the step input of P accurately, indicating that the static perturbation results can be applied to the dynamic case. This model is further validated by accurately predicting the contraction response to a triangular P waveform. All three elements have pressure-dependent coefficients for pressure P in the range 207 < or = P < or = 621 kPa (30 < or = P < or = 90 psi). Studies with a step decrease in P (relaxation of the PM) indicate that the damping element coefficient is smaller during relaxation than contraction.
Bioinactivation: Software for modelling dynamic microbial inactivation.
Garre, Alberto; Fernández, Pablo S; Lindqvist, Roland; Egea, Jose A
2017-03-01
This contribution presents the bioinactivation software, which implements functions for the modelling of isothermal and non-isothermal microbial inactivation. This software offers features such as user-friendliness, modelling of dynamic conditions, possibility to choose the fitting algorithm and generation of prediction intervals. The software is offered in two different formats: Bioinactivation core and Bioinactivation SE. Bioinactivation core is a package for the R programming language, which includes features for the generation of predictions and for the fitting of models to inactivation experiments using non-linear regression or a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm (MCMC). The calculations are based on inactivation models common in academia and industry (Bigelow, Peleg, Mafart and Geeraerd). Bioinactivation SE supplies a user-friendly interface to selected functions of Bioinactivation core, namely the model fitting of non-isothermal experiments and the generation of prediction intervals. The capabilities of bioinactivation are presented in this paper through a case study, modelling the non-isothermal inactivation of Bacillus sporothermodurans. This study has provided a full characterization of the response of the bacteria to dynamic temperature conditions, including confidence intervals for the model parameters and a prediction interval of the survivor curve. We conclude that the MCMC algorithm produces a better characterization of the biological uncertainty and variability than non-linear regression. The bioinactivation software can be relevant to the food and pharmaceutical industry, as well as to regulatory agencies, as part of a (quantitative) microbial risk assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Dynamic alignment models for neural coding.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sepp Kollmorgen
2014-03-01
Full Text Available Recently, there have been remarkable advances in modeling the relationships between the sensory environment, neuronal responses, and behavior. However, most models cannot encompass variable stimulus-response relationships such as varying response latencies and state or context dependence of the neural code. Here, we consider response modeling as a dynamic alignment problem and model stimulus and response jointly by a mixed pair hidden Markov model (MPH. In MPHs, multiple stimulus-response relationships (e.g., receptive fields are represented by different states or groups of states in a Markov chain. Each stimulus-response relationship features temporal flexibility, allowing modeling of variable response latencies, including noisy ones. We derive algorithms for learning of MPH parameters and for inference of spike response probabilities. We show that some linear-nonlinear Poisson cascade (LNP models are a special case of MPHs. We demonstrate the efficiency and usefulness of MPHs in simulations of both jittered and switching spike responses to white noise and natural stimuli. Furthermore, we apply MPHs to extracellular single and multi-unit data recorded in cortical brain areas of singing birds to showcase a novel method for estimating response lag distributions. MPHs allow simultaneous estimation of receptive fields, latency statistics, and hidden state dynamics and so can help to uncover complex stimulus response relationships that are subject to variable timing and involve diverse neural codes.
Dynamic alignment models for neural coding.
Kollmorgen, Sepp; Hahnloser, Richard H R
2014-03-01
Recently, there have been remarkable advances in modeling the relationships between the sensory environment, neuronal responses, and behavior. However, most models cannot encompass variable stimulus-response relationships such as varying response latencies and state or context dependence of the neural code. Here, we consider response modeling as a dynamic alignment problem and model stimulus and response jointly by a mixed pair hidden Markov model (MPH). In MPHs, multiple stimulus-response relationships (e.g., receptive fields) are represented by different states or groups of states in a Markov chain. Each stimulus-response relationship features temporal flexibility, allowing modeling of variable response latencies, including noisy ones. We derive algorithms for learning of MPH parameters and for inference of spike response probabilities. We show that some linear-nonlinear Poisson cascade (LNP) models are a special case of MPHs. We demonstrate the efficiency and usefulness of MPHs in simulations of both jittered and switching spike responses to white noise and natural stimuli. Furthermore, we apply MPHs to extracellular single and multi-unit data recorded in cortical brain areas of singing birds to showcase a novel method for estimating response lag distributions. MPHs allow simultaneous estimation of receptive fields, latency statistics, and hidden state dynamics and so can help to uncover complex stimulus response relationships that are subject to variable timing and involve diverse neural codes.
Simple mathematical models of gene regulatory dynamics
Mackey, Michael C; Tyran-Kamińska, Marta; Zeron, Eduardo S
2016-01-01
This is a short and self-contained introduction to the field of mathematical modeling of gene-networks in bacteria. As an entry point to the field, we focus on the analysis of simple gene-network dynamics. The notes commence with an introduction to the deterministic modeling of gene-networks, with extensive reference to applicable results coming from dynamical systems theory. The second part of the notes treats extensively several approaches to the study of gene-network dynamics in the presence of noise—either arising from low numbers of molecules involved, or due to noise external to the regulatory process. The third and final part of the notes gives a detailed treatment of three well studied and concrete examples of gene-network dynamics by considering the lactose operon, the tryptophan operon, and the lysis-lysogeny switch. The notes contain an index for easy location of particular topics as well as an extensive bibliography of the current literature. The target audience of these notes are mainly graduat...
A Typed Model for Dynamic Authorizations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Silvia Ghilezan
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Security requirements in distributed software systems are inherently dynamic. In the case of authorization policies, resources are meant to be accessed only by authorized parties, but the authorization to access a resource may be dynamically granted/yielded. We describe ongoing work on a model for specifying communication and dynamic authorization handling. We build upon the pi-calculus so as to enrich communication-based systems with authorization specification and delegation; here authorizations regard channel usage and delegation refers to the act of yielding an authorization to another party. Our model includes: (i a novel scoping construct for authorization, which allows to specify authorization boundaries, and (ii communication primitives for authorizations, which allow to pass around authorizations to act on a given channel. An authorization error may consist in, e.g., performing an action along a name which is not under an appropriate authorization scope. We introduce a typing discipline that ensures that processes never reduce to authorization errors, even when authorizations are dynamically delegated.
Dynamical Causal Modeling from a Quantum Dynamical Perspective
Demiralp, Emre; Demiralp, Metin
2010-09-01
Recent research suggests that any set of first order linear vector ODEs can be converted to a set of specific vector ODEs adhering to what we have called "Quantum Harmonical Form (QHF)". QHF has been developed using a virtual quantum multi harmonic oscillator system where mass and force constants are considered to be time variant and the Hamiltonian is defined as a conic structure over positions and momenta to conserve the Hermiticity. As described in previous works, the conversion to QHF requires the matrix coefficient of the first set of ODEs to be a normal matrix. In this paper, this limitation is circumvented using a space extension approach expanding the potential applicability of this method. Overall, conversion to QHF allows the investigation of a set of ODEs using mathematical tools available to the investigation of the physical concepts underlying quantum harmonic oscillators. The utility of QHF in the context of dynamical systems and dynamical causal modeling in behavioral and cognitive neuroscience is briefly discussed.
Modeling plasmaspheric dynamics with SAMI3 (Invited)
Huba, J. D.; Krall, J.; Wu, T.
2013-12-01
The NRL SAMI3 ionosphere/plasmasphere code is used to study plasmaspheric dynamics under both quiet and stormtime conditions. The SAMI3 ionosphere code includes 7 ion species (H+, He+, O+ ,N+, O2+, N2+, NO+), each treated as a separate fluid, with temperature equations being solved for H+, He+, O+ and e. Winds in SAMI3 are provided by HWM07 or HWM93 and the wind-driven ionospheric dynamo potential is computed self-consistently, based on current conservation. For this study SAMI3 is driven by the Weimer empirical model as well as a modified Volland-Stern potential at high latitudes. A time-varying high-latitude potential in combination with losses imposed for `open' field lines (L > 7) produces a dynamic plasmapause. Modeling results will be compared with observational data (e.g., plume formation, refilling, TEC). Research supported by NRL Base Funds and NASA.
The dynamic radiation environment assimilation model (DREAM)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Koller, Josef [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Tokar, Robert L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chen, Yue [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Henderson, Michael G [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2010-01-01
The Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model (DREAM) is a 3-year effort sponsored by the US Department of Energy to provide global, retrospective, or real-time specification of the natural and potential nuclear radiation environments. The DREAM model uses Kalman filtering techniques that combine the strengths of new physical models of the radiation belts with electron observations from long-term satellite systems such as GPS and geosynchronous systems. DREAM includes a physics model for the production and long-term evolution of artificial radiation belts from high altitude nuclear explosions. DREAM has been validated against satellites in arbitrary orbits and consistently produces more accurate results than existing models. Tools for user-specific applications and graphical displays are in beta testing and a real-time version of DREAM has been in continuous operation since November 2009.
Dynamic energy-demand models. A comparison
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yi, Feng
2000-01-01
This paper compares two second-generation dynamic energy demand models, a translog (TL) and a general Leontief (GL), in the study of price elasticities and factor substitutions of nine Swedish manufacturing industries: food, textiles, wood, paper, printing, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, base metals and machinery. Several model specifications are tested with likelihood ratio test. There is a disagreement on short-run adjustments; the TL model accepts putty-putty production technology of immediate adjustments, implying equal short- and long-run price elasticities of factors, while the GL model rejects immediate adjustments, giving out short-run elasticities quite different from the long-run. The two models also disagree in substitutability in many cases. 21 refs
Dynamical symmetries of the shell model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Van Isacker, P
2000-07-01
The applications of spectrum generating algebras and of dynamical symmetries in the nuclear shell model are many and varied. They stretch back to Wigner's early work on the supermultiplet model and encompass important landmarks in our understanding of the structure of the atomic nucleus such as Racah's SU(2) pairing model and Elliot's SU(3) rotational model. One of the aims of this contribution has been to show the historical importance of the idea of dynamical symmetry in nuclear physics. Another has been to indicate that, in spite of being old, this idea continues to inspire developments that are at the forefront of today's research in nuclear physics. It has been argued in this contribution that the main driving features of nuclear structure can be represented algebraically but at the same time the limitations of the symmetry approach must be recognised. It should be clear that such approach can only account for gross properties and that any detailed description requires more involved numerical calculations of which we have seen many fine examples during this symposium. In this way symmetry techniques can be used as an appropriate starting point for detailed calculations. A noteworthy example of this approach is the pseudo-SU(3) model which starting from its initial symmetry Ansatz has grown into an adequate and powerful description of the nucleus in terms of a truncated shell model. (author)
Dynamical Model for Indoor Radon Concentration Monitoring
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Brabec, Marek; Jílek, K.
2009-01-01
Roč. 20, č. 6 (2009), s. 718-729 ISSN 1180-4009. [TIES 2007. Annual Meeting of the International Environmental Society /18./. Mikulov, 16.08.2007-20.08.2007] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : non-parametric regression * dynamic modeling * time-varying coefficients Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2009
Simple Models for the Dynamic Modeling of Rotating Tires
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J.C. Delamotte
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Large Finite Element (FE models of tires are currently used to predict low frequency behavior and to obtain dynamic model coefficients used in multi-body models for riding and comfort. However, to predict higher frequency behavior, which may explain irregular wear, critical rotating speeds and noise radiation, FE models are not practical. Detailed FE models are not adequate for optimization and uncertainty predictions either, as in such applications the dynamic solution must be computed a number of times. Therefore, there is a need for simpler models that can capture the physics of the tire and be used to compute the dynamic response with a low computational cost. In this paper, the spectral (or continuous element approach is used to derive such a model. A circular beam spectral element that takes into account the string effect is derived, and a method to simulate the response to a rotating force is implemented in the frequency domain. The behavior of a circular ring under different internal pressures is investigated using modal and frequency/wavenumber representations. Experimental results obtained with a real untreaded truck tire are presented and qualitatively compared with the simple model predictions with good agreement. No attempt is made to obtain equivalent parameters for the simple model from the real tire results. On the other hand, the simple model fails to represent the correct variation of the quotient of the natural frequency by the number of circumferential wavelengths with the mode count. Nevertheless, some important features of the real tire dynamic behavior, such as the generation of standing waves and part of the frequency/wavenumber behavior, can be investigated using the proposed simplified model.
Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Røge, Rasmus
2015-01-01
dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted...
Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply
Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas
2009-09-01
We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.
A dynamical model for bark beetle outbreaks.
Křivan, Vlastimil; Lewis, Mark; Bentz, Barbara J; Bewick, Sharon; Lenhart, Suzanne M; Liebhold, Andrew
2016-10-21
Tree-killing bark beetles are major disturbance agents affecting coniferous forest ecosystems. The role of environmental conditions on driving beetle outbreaks is becoming increasingly important as global climatic change alters environmental factors, such as drought stress, that, in turn, govern tree resistance. Furthermore, dynamics between beetles and trees are highly nonlinear, due to complex aggregation behaviors exhibited by beetles attacking trees. Models have a role to play in helping unravel the effects of variable tree resistance and beetle aggregation on bark beetle outbreaks. In this article we develop a new mathematical model for bark beetle outbreaks using an analogy with epidemiological models. Because the model operates on several distinct time scales, singular perturbation methods are used to simplify the model. The result is a dynamical system that tracks populations of uninfested and infested trees. A limiting case of the model is a discontinuous function of state variables, leading to solutions in the Filippov sense. The model assumes an extensive seed-bank so that tree recruitment is possible even if trees go extinct. Two scenarios are considered for immigration of new beetles. The first is a single tree stand with beetles immigrating from outside while the second considers two forest stands with beetle dispersal between them. For the seed-bank driven recruitment rate, when beetle immigration is low, the forest stand recovers to a beetle-free state. At high beetle immigration rates beetle populations approach an endemic equilibrium state. At intermediate immigration rates, the model predicts bistability as the forest can be in either of the two equilibrium states: a healthy forest, or a forest with an endemic beetle population. The model bistability leads to hysteresis. Interactions between two stands show how a less resistant stand of trees may provide an initial toe-hold for the invasion, which later leads to a regional beetle outbreak in the
Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anne M. Estes
2015-08-01
Full Text Available “Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1 niche availability and habitat space and 2 a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determine what the person with the microbiome “ate.” Students then model the effect of taking antibiotics by removing certain “antibiotic sensitive” pasta. Finally, they add in “environmental microbes” or “native microbes” to recolonize the digestive system, determine how resilient their model microbome community is to disturbance, and discuss the implications. Throughout the exercise, students discuss differences in the habitat space available and microbiome community diversity. This exercise can be modified to discuss changes in the microbiome due to diet shifts and the emergence of antibiotic resistance in more depth.
Conceptual Model of Dynamic Geographic Environment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martínez-Rosales Miguel Alejandro
2014-04-01
Full Text Available In geographic environments, there are many and different types of geographic entities such as automobiles, trees, persons, buildings, storms, hurricanes, etc. These entities can be classified into two groups: geographic objects and geographic phenomena. By its nature, a geographic environment is dynamic, thus, it’s static modeling is not sufficient. Considering the dynamics of geographic environment, a new type of geographic entity called event is introduced. The primary target is a modeling of geographic environment as an event sequence, because in this case the semantic relations are much richer than in the case of static modeling. In this work, the conceptualization of this model is proposed. It is based on the idea to process each entity apart instead of processing the environment as a whole. After that, the so called history of each entity and its spatial relations to other entities are defined to describe the whole environment. The main goal is to model systems at a conceptual level that make use of spatial and temporal information, so that later it can serve as the semantic engine for such systems.
Quadratic tracer dynamical models tobacco growth
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qiang Jiyi; Hua Cuncai; Wang Shaohua
2011-01-01
In order to study the non-uniformly transferring process of some tracer dosages, we assume that the absorption of some tracer by tobacco is a quadratic function of the tracer quantity of the tracer in the case of fast absorption, whereas the exclusion of the tracer from tobacco is a linear function of the tracer quantity in the case of slow exclusion, after the tracer is introduced into tobacco once at zero time. A single-compartment quadratic dynamical model of Logistic type is established for the leaves of tobacco. Then, a two-compartment quadratic dynamical model is established for leaves and calms of the tobacco. Qualitative analysis of the models shows that the tracer applied to the leaves of the tobacco is excluded finally; however, the tracer stays at the tobacco for finite time. Two methods are also given for computing the parameters in the models. Finally, the results of the models are verified by the 32 P experiment for the absorption of tobacco. (authors)
Restoration of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Adushita, Yasmin; Leetaru, Hannes
2014-09-30
In topical Report DOE/FE0002068-1 [2] technical performance evaluations on the Cambrian Potosi Formation were performed through reservoir modeling. The data included formation tops from mud logs, well logs from the VW1 and the CCS1 wells, structural and stratigraphic formation from three dimensional (3D) seismic data, and field data from several waste water injection wells for Potosi Formation. Intention was for two million tons per annum (MTPA) of CO2 to be injected for 20 years. In this Task the 2010 Potosi heterogeneous model (referred to as the "Potosi Dynamic Model 2010" in this report) was re-run using a new injection scenario; 3.2 MTPA for 30 years. The extent of the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010, however, appeared too small for the new injection target. It was not sufficiently large enough to accommodate the evolution of the plume. Also, it might have overestimated the injection capacity by enhancing too much the pressure relief due to the relatively close proximity between the injector and the infinite acting boundaries. The new model, Potosi Dynamic Model 2013a, was built by extending the Potosi Dynamic Model 2010 grid to 30 miles x 30 miles (48 km by 48 km), while preserving all property modeling workflows and layering. This model was retained as the base case. Potosi Dynamic Model 2013.a gives an average CO2 injection rate of 1.4 MTPA and cumulative injection of 43 Mt in 30 years, which corresponds to 45% of the injection target. This implies that according to this preliminary model, a minimum of three (3) wells could be required to achieve the injection target. The injectivity evaluation of the Potosi formation will be revisited in topical Report 15 during which more data will be integrated in the modeling exercise. A vertical flow performance evaluation could be considered for the succeeding task to determine the appropriate tubing size, the required injection tubing head pressure (THP) and to investigate whether the corresponding well injection rate
A Multiscale Model for Virus Capsid Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Changjun Chen
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Viruses are infectious agents that can cause epidemics and pandemics. The understanding of virus formation, evolution, stability, and interaction with host cells is of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, a virus complex in association with its aquatic environment poses a fabulous challenge to theoretical description and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry-based multiscale paradigm to model complex biomolecule systems. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum domain of the fluid mechanical description of the aquatic environment from the microscopic discrete domain of the atomistic description of the biomolecule. A multiscale action functional is constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales. We show that the classical Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid dynamics and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived from the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows.
A multiscale model for virus capsid dynamics.
Chen, Changjun; Saxena, Rishu; Wei, Guo-Wei
2010-01-01
Viruses are infectious agents that can cause epidemics and pandemics. The understanding of virus formation, evolution, stability, and interaction with host cells is of great importance to the scientific community and public health. Typically, a virus complex in association with its aquatic environment poses a fabulous challenge to theoretical description and prediction. In this work, we propose a differential geometry-based multiscale paradigm to model complex biomolecule systems. In our approach, the differential geometry theory of surfaces and geometric measure theory are employed as a natural means to couple the macroscopic continuum domain of the fluid mechanical description of the aquatic environment from the microscopic discrete domain of the atomistic description of the biomolecule. A multiscale action functional is constructed as a unified framework to derive the governing equations for the dynamics of different scales. We show that the classical Navier-Stokes equation for the fluid dynamics and Newton's equation for the molecular dynamics can be derived from the least action principle. These equations are coupled through the continuum-discrete interface whose dynamics is governed by potential driven geometric flows.
Mathematical modeling and applications in nonlinear dynamics
Merdan, Hüseyin
2016-01-01
The book covers nonlinear physical problems and mathematical modeling, including molecular biology, genetics, neurosciences, artificial intelligence with classical problems in mechanics and astronomy and physics. The chapters present nonlinear mathematical modeling in life science and physics through nonlinear differential equations, nonlinear discrete equations and hybrid equations. Such modeling can be effectively applied to the wide spectrum of nonlinear physical problems, including the KAM (Kolmogorov-Arnold-Moser (KAM)) theory, singular differential equations, impulsive dichotomous linear systems, analytical bifurcation trees of periodic motions, and almost or pseudo- almost periodic solutions in nonlinear dynamical systems. Provides methods for mathematical models with switching, thresholds, and impulses, each of particular importance for discontinuous processes Includes qualitative analysis of behaviors on Tumor-Immune Systems and methods of analysis for DNA, neural networks and epidemiology Introduces...
Development of moist atmospheric dynamic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Furuno, Akiko; Yamazawa, Hiromi
1998-12-01
WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is a system for rapid prediction of long-range atmospheric dispersion and radiological impact due to a nuclear accident. At present, the atmospheric dispersion model GEARN in WSPEEDI simply parameterizes the turbulence diffusion and precipitation scavenging, i.e. rain-out and washout, because information on the boundary layer, cloud and precipitation is insufficient in global forecasts from Japan Meteorological Agency which are input data for WSPEEDI. Thus, to provide GEARN with such information, this study aims to introduce a hydrodynamic model into WSPEEDI, which can predict boundary layer processes and moist processes. As the first step, prognostic equations for hydrometeors, cloud formation and precipitation processes are added to the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. This report describes the detail of the modified model code and the results of test calculation. (author)
Dynamical models of happiness with fractional order
Song, Lei; Xu, Shiyun; Yang, Jianying
2010-03-01
This present study focuses on a dynamical model of happiness described through fractional-order differential equations. By categorizing people of different personality and different impact factor of memory (IFM) with different set of model parameters, it is demonstrated via numerical simulations that such fractional-order models could exhibit various behaviors with and without external circumstance. Moreover, control and synchronization problems of this model are discussed, which correspond to the control of emotion as well as emotion synchronization in real life. This study is an endeavor to combine the psychological knowledge with control problems and system theories, and some implications for psychotherapy as well as hints of a personal approach to life are both proposed.
Modeling Computer Virus and Its Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mei Peng
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Based on that the computer will be infected by infected computer and exposed computer, and some of the computers which are in suscepitible status and exposed status can get immunity by antivirus ability, a novel coumputer virus model is established. The dynamic behaviors of this model are investigated. First, the basic reproduction number R0, which is a threshold of the computer virus spreading in internet, is determined. Second, this model has a virus-free equilibrium P0, which means that the infected part of the computer disappears, and the virus dies out, and P0 is a globally asymptotically stable equilibrium if R01 then this model has only one viral equilibrium P*, which means that the computer persists at a constant endemic level, and P* is also globally asymptotically stable. Finally, some numerical examples are given to demonstrate the analytical results.
Medical management of toxicological mass casualty events.
Markel, Gal; Krivoy, Amir; Rotman, Eran; Schein, Ophir; Shrot, Shai; Brosh-Nissimov, Tal; Dushnitsky, Tsvika; Eisenkraft, Arik
2008-11-01
The relative accessibility to various chemical agents, including chemical warfare agents and toxic industrial compounds, places a toxicological mass casualty event, including chemical terrorism, among the major threats to homeland security. TMCE represents a medical and logistic challenge with potential hazardous exposure of first-response teams. In addition, TMCE poses substantial psychological and economic impact. We have created a simple response algorithm that provides practical guidelines for participating forces in TMCE. Emphasis is placed on the role of first responders, highlighting the importance of early recognition of the event as a TMCE, informing the command and control centers, and application of appropriate self-protection. The medical identification of the toxidrome is of utmost importance as it may dictate radically different approaches and life-saving modalities. Our proposed emergency management of TMCE values the "Scoop & Run" approach orchestrated by an organized evacuation plan rather than on-site decontamination. Finally, continuous preparedness of health systems - exemplified by periodic CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radio-Nuclear) medical training of both first responders and hospital staff, mandatory placement of antidotal auto-injectors in all ambulances and CBRN emergency kits in the emergency departments - would considerably improve the emergency medical response to TMCE.
Dynamic modeling of hydrostatic guideway considering compressibility and inertia effect
Du, Yikang; Mao, Kuanmin; Zhu, Yaming; Wang, Fengyun; Mao, Xiaobo; Li, Bin
2015-03-01
Hydrostatic guideways are used as an alternative to contact bearings due to high stiffness and high damping in heavy machine tools. To improve the dynamic characteristic of bearing structure, the dynamic modeling of the hydrostatic guidway should be accurately known. This paper presents a "mass-spring-Maxwell" model considering the effects of inertia, squeeze, compressibility and static bearing. To determine the dynamic model coefficients, numerical simulation of different cases between displacement and dynamic force of oil film are performed with fluent code. Simulation results show that hydrostatic guidway can be taken as a linear system when it is subjected to a small oscillation amplitude. Based on a dynamic model and numerical simulation, every dynamic model's parameters are calculated by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Identification results show that "mass-spring-damper" model is the most appropriate dynamic model of the hydrostatic guidway. This paper provides a reference and preparation for the analysis of the dynamic model of the similar hydrostatic bearings.
Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems
Ukkusuri, Satish V
2013-01-01
This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.
OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C Brandon Ogbunugafor
Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.
Chapter 3 innovations in the en route care of combat casualties.
Hatzfeld, Jennifer J; Dukes, Susan; Bridges, Elizabeth
2014-01-01
The en route care environment is dynamic and requires constant innovation to ensure appropriate nursing care for combat casualties. Building on experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, there have been tremendous innovations in the process of transporting patients, including the movement of patients with spinal injuries. Advances have also been made in pain management and noninvasive monitoring, particularly for trauma and surgical patients requiring close monitoring of their hemodynamic and perfusion status. In addition to institutionalizing these innovations, future efforts are needed to eliminate secondary insults to patients with traumatic brain injuries and technologies to provide closed-loop sedation and ventilation.
Dynamic modeling of gearbox faults: A review
Liang, Xihui; Zuo, Ming J.; Feng, Zhipeng
2018-01-01
Gearbox is widely used in industrial and military applications. Due to high service load, harsh operating conditions or inevitable fatigue, faults may develop in gears. If the gear faults cannot be detected early, the health will continue to degrade, perhaps causing heavy economic loss or even catastrophe. Early fault detection and diagnosis allows properly scheduled shutdowns to prevent catastrophic failure and consequently result in a safer operation and higher cost reduction. Recently, many studies have been done to develop gearbox dynamic models with faults aiming to understand gear fault generation mechanism and then develop effective fault detection and diagnosis methods. This paper focuses on dynamics based gearbox fault modeling, detection and diagnosis. State-of-art and challenges are reviewed and discussed. This detailed literature review limits research results to the following fundamental yet key aspects: gear mesh stiffness evaluation, gearbox damage modeling and fault diagnosis techniques, gearbox transmission path modeling and method validation. In the end, a summary and some research prospects are presented.
MSMBuilder: Statistical Models for Biomolecular Dynamics.
Harrigan, Matthew P; Sultan, Mohammad M; Hernández, Carlos X; Husic, Brooke E; Eastman, Peter; Schwantes, Christian R; Beauchamp, Kyle A; McGibbon, Robert T; Pande, Vijay S
2017-01-10
MSMBuilder is a software package for building statistical models of high-dimensional time-series data. It is designed with a particular focus on the analysis of atomistic simulations of biomolecular dynamics such as protein folding and conformational change. MSMBuilder is named for its ability to construct Markov state models (MSMs), a class of models that has gained favor among computational biophysicists. In addition to both well-established and newer MSM methods, the package includes complementary algorithms for understanding time-series data such as hidden Markov models and time-structure based independent component analysis. MSMBuilder boasts an easy to use command-line interface, as well as clear and consistent abstractions through its Python application programming interface. MSMBuilder was developed with careful consideration for compatibility with the broader machine learning community by following the design of scikit-learn. The package is used primarily by practitioners of molecular dynamics, but is just as applicable to other computational or experimental time-series measurements. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Yi, Zheng; Lindner, Benjamin; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Noé, Frank; Smith, Jeremy C
2013-11-07
Neutron scattering experiments directly probe the dynamics of complex molecules on the sub pico- to microsecond time scales. However, the assignment of the relaxations seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements is difficult, since many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales. In an accompanying article, we present a theoretical approach to the analysis of molecular dynamics simulations with a Markov State Model (MSM) that permits the direct identification of structural transitions leading to each contributing relaxation process. Here, we demonstrate the use of the method by applying it to the configurational dynamics of the well-characterized alanine dipeptide. A practical procedure for deriving the MSM from an MD is introduced. The result is a 9-state MSM in the space of the backbone dihedral angles and the side-chain methyl group. The agreement between the quasielastic spectrum calculated directly from the atomic trajectories and that derived from the Markov state model is excellent. The dependence on the wavevector of the individual Markov processes is described. The procedure means that it is now practicable to interpret quasielastic scattering spectra in terms of well-defined intramolecular transitions with minimal a priori assumptions as to the nature of the dynamics taking place.
Dynamic modelling of Industrial Heavy Water Plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Teruel, F.E.
1997-01-01
The dynamic behavior of the isotopic enrichment unites of the Industrial Heavy Water Plant, located in Arroyito, Neuquen, Argentina, was modeled and simulated in the present work. Dynamic models of the chemical and isotopic interchange processes existent in the plant, were developed. This served as a base to obtain representative models of the different unit and control systems. The developed models were represented in a modular code for each unit. Each simulator consists of approximately one hundred non-linear-first-order differential equations and some other algebraic equation, which are time resolved by the code. The different simulators allow to change a big number of boundary conditions and the control systems set point for each simulation, so that the program become very versatile. The output of the code allows to see the evolution through time of the variables of interest. An interface which facilitates the use of the first enrichment stage simulator was developed. This interface allows an easy access to generate wished events during the simulation and includes the possibility to plot evolution of the variables involved. The obtained results agree with the expected tendencies. The calculated nominal steady state matches by the manufacturer. The different steady states obtained, agree with previous works. The times and tendencies involved in the transients generated by the program, are in good agreement with the experience obtained at the plant. Based in the obtained results, it is concluded that the characteristic times of the plant are determined by the masses involved in the process. Different characteristics in the system dynamic behavior were generated with the different simulators, and were validated by plant personnel. This work allowed to understand the different process involved in the heavy water manufacture, and to develop a very useful tool for the personnel of the plant. (author). 14 refs., figs., tabs. plant. (author). 14 refs., figs., tabs
Reduced complexity modeling of Arctic delta dynamics
Piliouras, A.; Lauzon, R.; Rowland, J. C.
2017-12-01
How water and sediment are routed through deltas has important implications for our understanding of nutrient and sediment fluxes to the coastal ocean. These fluxes may be especially important in Arctic environments, because the Arctic ocean receives a disproportionately large amount of river discharge and high latitude regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The Arctic has some of the world's largest but least studied deltas. This lack of data is due to remote and hazardous conditions, sparse human populations, and limited remote sensing resources. In the absence of data, complex models may be of limited scientific utility in understanding Arctic delta dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we adapt the reduced complexity delta-building model DeltaRCM for Arctic environments to explore the influence of sea ice and permafrost on delta morphology and dynamics. We represent permafrost by increasing the threshold for sediment erosion, as permafrost has been found to increase cohesion and reduce channel migration rates. The presence of permafrost in the model results in the creation of more elongate channels, fewer active channels, and a rougher shoreline. We consider several effects of sea ice, including introducing friction which increases flow resistance, constriction of flow by landfast ice, and changes in effective water surface elevation. Flow constriction and increased friction from ice results in a rougher shoreline, more frequent channel switching, decreased channel migration rates, and enhanced deposition offshore of channel mouths. The reduced complexity nature of the model is ideal for generating a basic understanding of which processes unique to Arctic environments may have important effects on delta evolution, and it allows us to explore a variety of rules for incorporating those processes into the model to inform future Arctic delta modelling efforts. Finally, we plan to use the modeling results to determine how the presence
Flight Dynamic Model Exchange using XML
Jackson, E. Bruce; Hildreth, Bruce L.
2002-01-01
The AIAA Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee has worked for several years to develop a standard by which the information needed to develop physics-based models of aircraft can be specified. The purpose of this standard is to provide a well-defined set of information, definitions, data tables and axis systems so that cooperating organizations can transfer a model from one simulation facility to another with maximum efficiency. This paper proposes using an application of the eXtensible Markup Language (XML) to implement the AIAA simulation standard. The motivation and justification for using a standard such as XML is discussed. Necessary data elements to be supported are outlined. An example of an aerodynamic model as an XML file is given. This example includes definition of independent and dependent variables for function tables, definition of key variables used to define the model, and axis systems used. The final steps necessary for implementation of the standard are presented. Software to take an XML-defined model and import/export it to/from a given simulation facility is discussed, but not demonstrated. That would be the next step in final implementation of standards for physics-based aircraft dynamic models.
Agent-based modeling and network dynamics
Namatame, Akira
2016-01-01
The book integrates agent-based modeling and network science. It is divided into three parts, namely, foundations, primary dynamics on and of social networks, and applications. The book begins with the network origin of agent-based models, known as cellular automata, and introduce a number of classic models, such as Schelling’s segregation model and Axelrod’s spatial game. The essence of the foundation part is the network-based agent-based models in which agents follow network-based decision rules. Under the influence of the substantial progress in network science in late 1990s, these models have been extended from using lattices into using small-world networks, scale-free networks, etc. The book also shows that the modern network science mainly driven by game-theorists and sociophysicists has inspired agent-based social scientists to develop alternative formation algorithms, known as agent-based social networks. The book reviews a number of pioneering and representative models in this family. Upon the gi...
Mineral vein dynamics modelling (FRACS II)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urai, J.; Virgo, S.; Arndt, M.
2016-08-01
The Mineral Vein Dynamics Modeling group ''FRACS'' started out as a team of 7 research groups in its first phase and continued with a team of 5 research groups at the Universities of Aachen, Tuebingen, Karlsruhe, Mainz and Glasgow during its second phase ''FRACS 11''. The aim of the group was to develop an advanced understanding of the interplay between fracturing, fluid flow and fracture healing with a special emphasis on the comparison of field data and numerical models. Field areas comprised the Oman mountains in Oman (which where already studied in detail in the first phase), a siliciclastic sequence in the Internal Ligurian Units in Italy (closed to Sestri Levante) and cores of Zechstein carbonates from a Lean Gas reservoir in Northern Germany. Numerical models of fracturing, sealing and interaction with fluid that were developed in phase I where expanded in phase 11. They were used to model small scale fracture healing by crystal growth and the resulting influence on flow, medium scale fracture healing and its influence on successive fracturing and healing, as well as large scale dynamic fluid flow through opening and closing fractures and channels as a function of fluid overpressure. The numerical models were compared with structures in the field and we were able to identify first proxies for mechanical vein-hostrock properties and fluid overpressures versus tectonic stresses. Finally we propose a new classification of stylolites based on numerical models and observations in the Zechstein cores and continued to develop a new stress inversion tool to use stylolites to estimate depth of their formation.
A dynamic model of the wormhole and the Multiverse model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Shatskii, A A; Kardashev, N S [Astro-Space Centre of the P. N. Lebedev Physics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation); Novikov, I D [Russian Research Centre ' Kurchatov Institute' , Moscow (Russian Federation)
2008-05-31
An analytic solution methodology for general relativity (GR) equations describing the hypothetical phenomenon of wormholes is presented and the analysis of wormholes in terms of their physical properties is discussed. An analytic solution of the GR equations for static and dynamic spherically symmetric wormholes is given. The dynamic solution generally describes a 'traversable' wormhole, i.e., one allowing matter, energy, and information to pass through it. It is shown how the energy-momentum tensor of matter in a wormhole can be represented in a form allowing the GR equations to be solved analytically, which has a crucial methodological importance for analyzing the properties of the solution obtained. The energy-momentum tensor of wormhole matter is represented as a superposition of a spherically symmetric magnetic (or electric) field and negative-density dust matter, serving as exotic matter necessary for a 'traversable' wormhole to exist. The dynamics of the model are investigated. A similar model is considered (and analyzed in terms of inflation) for the Einstein equations with a {lambda} term. Superposing enough dust matter, a magnetic field, and a {lambda} term can produce a static solution, which turns out to be a spherical Multiverse model with an infinite number of wormhole-connected spherical universes. This Multiverse can have its total energy positive everywhere in space, and in addition can be out of equilibrium (i.e., dynamic). (methodological notes)
Numerical modeling of bubble dynamics in magmas
Huber, Christian; Su, Yanqing; Parmigiani, Andrea
2014-05-01
Understanding the complex non-linear physics that governs volcanic eruptions is contingent on our ability to characterize the dynamics of bubbles and its effect on the ascending magma. The exsolution and migration of bubbles has also a great impact on the heat and mass transport in and out of magma bodies stored at shallow depths in the crust. Multiphase systems like magmas are by definition heterogeneous at small scales. Although mixture theory or homogenization methods are convenient to represent multiphase systems as a homogeneous equivalent media, these approaches do not inform us on possible feedbacks at the pore-scale and can be significantly misleading. In this presentation, we discuss the development and application of bubble-scale multiphase flow modeling to address the following questions : How do bubbles impact heat and mass transport in magma chambers ? How efficient are chemical exchanges between the melt and bubbles during magma decompression? What is the role of hydrodynamic interactions on the deformation of bubbles while the magma is sheared? Addressing these questions requires powerful numerical methods that accurately model the balance between viscous, capillary and pressure stresses. We discuss how these bubble-scale models can provide important constraints on the dynamics of magmas stored at shallow depth or ascending to the surface during an eruption.
MODELS AND THE DYNAMICS OF THEORIES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulo Abrantes
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract: This paper gives a historical overview of the ways various trends in the philosophy of science dealt with models and their relationship with the topics of heuristics and theoretical dynamics. First of all, N. Campbell’s account of analogies as components of scientific theories is presented. Next, the notion of ‘model’ in the reconstruction of the structure of scientific theories proposed by logical empiricists is examined. This overview finishes with M. Hesse’s attempts to develop Campbell’s early ideas in terms of an analogical inference. The final part of the paper points to contemporary developments on these issues which adopt a cognitivist perspective. It is indicated how discussions in the cognitive sciences might help to flesh out some of the insights philosophers of science had concerning the role models and analogies play in actual scientific theorizing. Key words: models, analogical reasoning, metaphors in science, the structure of scientific theories, theoretical dynamics, heuristics, scientific discovery.
Mathematical modeling of infectious disease dynamics.
Siettos, Constantinos I; Russo, Lucia
2013-05-15
Over the last years, an intensive worldwide effort is speeding up the developments in the establishment of a global surveillance network for combating pandemics of emergent and re-emergent infectious diseases. Scientists from different fields extending from medicine and molecular biology to computer science and applied mathematics have teamed up for rapid assessment of potentially urgent situations. Toward this aim mathematical modeling plays an important role in efforts that focus on predicting, assessing, and controlling potential outbreaks. To better understand and model the contagious dynamics the impact of numerous variables ranging from the micro host-pathogen level to host-to-host interactions, as well as prevailing ecological, social, economic, and demographic factors across the globe have to be analyzed and thoroughly studied. Here, we present and discuss the main approaches that are used for the surveillance and modeling of infectious disease dynamics. We present the basic concepts underpinning their implementation and practice and for each category we give an annotated list of representative works.
Introduction to mathematical modeling and chaotic dynamics
Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar
2013-01-01
""The presentation is so clear that anyone with even a basic mathematical background can study it and get a clear picture. … Unlike many other similar textbooks, a rich reference section is given at the end of each chapter. The cautious selection of worked out examples and exercises throughout the book is superb. For anyone with previous experience of having run into books in mathematical modeling and chaotic dynamics that rapidly move into advanced mathematical content, the book offers a pleasant recourse at an introductory level and therefore can be very inspirational.""-MAA Reviews, Decembe
A Mathematical Model of Cardiovascular Response to Dynamic Exercise
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Magosso, E
2001-01-01
A mathematical model of cardiovascular response to dynamic exercise is presented, The model includes the pulsating heart, the systemic and pulmonary, circulation, a functional description of muscle...
Trophic dynamics of a simple model ecosystem.
Bell, Graham; Fortier-Dubois, Étienne
2017-09-13
We have constructed a model of community dynamics that is simple enough to enumerate all possible food webs, yet complex enough to represent a wide range of ecological processes. We use the transition matrix to predict the outcome of succession and then investigate how the transition probabilities are governed by resource supply and immigration. Low-input regimes lead to simple communities whereas trophically complex communities develop when there is an adequate supply of both resources and immigrants. Our interpretation of trophic dynamics in complex communities hinges on a new principle of mutual replenishment, defined as the reciprocal alternation of state in a pair of communities linked by the invasion and extinction of a shared species. Such neutral couples are the outcome of succession under local dispersal and imply that food webs will often be made up of suites of trophically equivalent species. When immigrants arrive from an external pool of fixed composition a similar principle predicts a dynamic core of webs constituting a neutral interchange network, although communities may express an extensive range of other webs whose membership is only in part predictable. The food web is not in general predictable from whole-community properties such as productivity or stability, although it may profoundly influence these properties. © 2017 The Author(s).
Computational social dynamic modeling of group recruitment.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Berry, Nina M.; Lee, Marinna; Pickett, Marc; Turnley, Jessica Glicken (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Smrcka, Julianne D. (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Ko, Teresa H.; Moy, Timothy David (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Wu, Benjamin C.
2004-01-01
The Seldon software toolkit combines concepts from agent-based modeling and social science to create a computationally social dynamic model for group recruitment. The underlying recruitment model is based on a unique three-level hybrid agent-based architecture that contains simple agents (level one), abstract agents (level two), and cognitive agents (level three). This uniqueness of this architecture begins with abstract agents that permit the model to include social concepts (gang) or institutional concepts (school) into a typical software simulation environment. The future addition of cognitive agents to the recruitment model will provide a unique entity that does not exist in any agent-based modeling toolkits to date. We use social networks to provide an integrated mesh within and between the different levels. This Java based toolkit is used to analyze different social concepts based on initialization input from the user. The input alters a set of parameters used to influence the values associated with the simple agents, abstract agents, and the interactions (simple agent-simple agent or simple agent-abstract agent) between these entities. The results of phase-1 Seldon toolkit provide insight into how certain social concepts apply to different scenario development for inner city gang recruitment.
AFDM: An advanced fluid-dynamics model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henneges, G.; Kleinheins, S.
1994-01-01
This volume of the Advanced Fluid-Dynamics Model (AFDM) documents the modeling of the equation of state (EOS) in the code. The authors present an overview of the basic concepts underlying the thermodynamics modeling and resulting EOS, which is a set of relations between the thermodynamic properties of materials. The AFDM code allows for multiphase-multimaterial systems, which they explore in three phase models: two-material solid, two-material liquid, and three-material vapor. They describe and compare two ways of specifying the EOS of materials: (1) as simplified analytic expressions, or (2) as tables that precisely describe the properties of materials and their interactions for mechanical equilibrium. Either of the two EOS models implemented in AFDM can be selected by specifying the option when preprocessing the source code for compilation. Last, the authors determine thermophysical properties such as surface tension, thermal conductivities, and viscosities in the model for the intracell exchanges of AFDM. Specific notations, routines, EOS data, plots, test results, and corrections to the code are available in the appendices
Testing substellar models with dynamical mass measurements
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Liu M.C.
2011-07-01
Full Text Available We have been using Keck laser guide star adaptive optics to monitor the orbits of ultracool binaries, providing dynamical masses at lower luminosities and temperatures than previously available and enabling strong tests of theoretical models. We have identified three specific problems with theory: (1 We find that model color–magnitude diagrams cannot be reliably used to infer masses as they do not accurately reproduce the colors of ultracool dwarfs of known mass. (2 Effective temperatures inferred from evolutionary model radii are typically inconsistent with temperatures derived from fitting atmospheric models to observed spectra by 100–300 K. (3 For the only known pair of field brown dwarfs with a precise mass (3% and age determination (≈25%, the measured luminosities are ~2–3× higher than predicted by model cooling rates (i.e., masses inferred from Lbol and age are 20–30% larger than measured. To make progress in understanding the observed discrepancies, more mass measurements spanning a wide range of luminosity, temperature, and age are needed, along with more accurate age determinations (e.g., via asteroseismology for primary stars with brown dwarf binary companions. Also, resolved optical and infrared spectroscopy are needed to measure lithium depletion and to characterize the atmospheres of binary components in order to better assess model deficiencies.
Graphical models for inferring single molecule dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gonzalez Ruben L
2010-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The recent explosion of experimental techniques in single molecule biophysics has generated a variety of novel time series data requiring equally novel computational tools for analysis and inference. This article describes in general terms how graphical modeling may be used to learn from biophysical time series data using the variational Bayesian expectation maximization algorithm (VBEM. The discussion is illustrated by the example of single-molecule fluorescence resonance energy transfer (smFRET versus time data, where the smFRET time series is modeled as a hidden Markov model (HMM with Gaussian observables. A detailed description of smFRET is provided as well. Results The VBEM algorithm returns the model’s evidence and an approximating posterior parameter distribution given the data. The former provides a metric for model selection via maximum evidence (ME, and the latter a description of the model’s parameters learned from the data. ME/VBEM provide several advantages over the more commonly used approach of maximum likelihood (ML optimized by the expectation maximization (EM algorithm, the most important being a natural form of model selection and a well-posed (non-divergent optimization problem. Conclusions The results demonstrate the utility of graphical modeling for inference of dynamic processes in single molecule biophysics.
Forward and backward dynamics in implicitly defined overlapping generations models
Gardini, L.; Hommes, C.; Tramontana, F.; de Vilder, R.
2009-01-01
In dynamic economic models derived from optimization principles, the forward equilibrium dynamics may not be uniquely defined, while the backward dynamics is well defined. We derive properties of the global forward equilibrium paths based on properties of the backward dynamics. We propose the
A Simple General Model of Evolutionary Dynamics
Thurner, Stefan
Evolution is a process in which some variations that emerge within a population (of, e.g., biological species or industrial goods) get selected, survive, and proliferate, whereas others vanish. Survival probability, proliferation, or production rates are associated with the "fitness" of a particular variation. We argue that the notion of fitness is an a posteriori concept in the sense that one can assign higher fitness to species or goods that survive but one can generally not derive or predict fitness per se. Whereas proliferation rates can be measured, fitness landscapes, that is, the inter-dependence of proliferation rates, cannot. For this reason we think that in a physical theory of evolution such notions should be avoided. Here we review a recent quantitative formulation of evolutionary dynamics that provides a framework for the co-evolution of species and their fitness landscapes (Thurner et al., 2010, Physica A 389, 747; Thurner et al., 2010, New J. Phys. 12, 075029; Klimek et al., 2009, Phys. Rev. E 82, 011901 (2010). The corresponding model leads to a generic evolutionary dynamics characterized by phases of relative stability in terms of diversity, followed by phases of massive restructuring. These dynamical modes can be interpreted as punctuated equilibria in biology, or Schumpeterian business cycles (Schumpeter, 1939, Business Cycles, McGraw-Hill, London) in economics. We show that phase transitions that separate phases of high and low diversity can be approximated surprisingly well by mean-field methods. We demonstrate that the mathematical framework is suited to understand systemic properties of evolutionary systems, such as their proneness to collapse, or their potential for diversification. The framework suggests that evolutionary processes are naturally linked to self-organized criticality and to properties of production matrices, such as their eigenvalue spectra. Even though the model is phrased in general terms it is also practical in the sense
Constructing Dynamic Event Trees from Markov Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paolo Bucci; Jason Kirschenbaum; Tunc Aldemir; Curtis Smith; Ted Wood
2006-01-01
In the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of process plants, Markov models can be used to model accurately the complex dynamic interactions between plant physical process variables (e.g., temperature, pressure, etc.) and the instrumentation and control system that monitors and manages the process. One limitation of this approach that has prevented its use in nuclear power plant PRAs is the difficulty of integrating the results of a Markov analysis into an existing PRA. In this paper, we explore a new approach to the generation of failure scenarios and their compilation into dynamic event trees from a Markov model of the system. These event trees can be integrated into an existing PRA using software tools such as SAPHIRE. To implement our approach, we first construct a discrete-time Markov chain modeling the system of interest by: (a) partitioning the process variable state space into magnitude intervals (cells), (b) using analytical equations or a system simulator to determine the transition probabilities between the cells through the cell-to-cell mapping technique, and, (c) using given failure/repair data for all the components of interest. The Markov transition matrix thus generated can be thought of as a process model describing the stochastic dynamic behavior of the finite-state system. We can therefore search the state space starting from a set of initial states to explore all possible paths to failure (scenarios) with associated probabilities. We can also construct event trees of arbitrary depth by tracing paths from a chosen initiating event and recording the following events while keeping track of the probabilities associated with each branch in the tree. As an example of our approach, we use the simple level control system often used as benchmark in the literature with one process variable (liquid level in a tank), and three control units: a drain unit and two supply units. Each unit includes a separate level sensor to observe the liquid level in the tank
Dynamic modelling of packaging material flow systems.
Tsiliyannis, Christos A
2005-04-01
A dynamic model has been developed for reused and recycled packaging material flows. It allows a rigorous description of the flows and stocks during the transition to new targets imposed by legislation, product demand variations or even by variations in consumer discard behaviour. Given the annual reuse and recycle frequency and packaging lifetime, the model determines all packaging flows (e.g., consumption and reuse) and variables through which environmental policy is formulated, such as recycling, waste and reuse rates and it identifies the minimum number of variables to be surveyed for complete packaging flow monitoring. Simulation of the transition to the new flow conditions is given for flows of packaging materials in Greece, based on 1995--1998 field inventory and statistical data.
Dynamical Model of Fission Fragment Angular Distribution
Drozdov, V. A.; Eremenko, D. O.; Fotina, O. V.; Platonov, S. Yu.; Yuminov, O. A.; Giardina, G.; Taccone, A.
2002-01-01
A dynamical model of fission fragment angular distributions is suggested. The model allows one to calculate fission fragment angular distributions, prescission light particle multyplicities, evaporation residue cross sections etc. for the cases of decay of hot and rotating heavy nuclei. The experimental data on angular anisotropies of fission fragments and prescission neutron multiplicities are analyzed for the 16O + 208Pb, 232Th, 248Cm and 238U reactions at the energies of the incident 16O ions ranging from 90 to 160 MeV. This analysis allows us to extract both the nuclear friction coefficient value and the relaxation time for the tilting mode. It is also demonstrated that the angular distributions are sensitive to the deformation dependence of the nuclear friction.
BWR stability using a reduced dynamical model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ballestrin Bolea, J.M.; Blazquez, J.B.
1990-01-01
BWR stability can be treated with reduced order dynamical models. When the parameters of the model came from experimental data, the predictions are accurate. In this work an alternative derivation for the void fraction equation is made, but remarking the physical struct-ure of the parameters. As the poles of power/reactivity transfer function are related with the parameters, the measurement of the poles by other techniques such as noise analysis will lead to the parameters, but the system of equations in non-linear. Simple parametric calculat-ion of decay ratio are performed, showing why BWRs become unstable when they are operated at low flow and high power. (Author). 7 refs
Nonsmooth mechanics models, dynamics and control
Brogliato, Bernard
2016-01-01
Now in its third edition, this standard reference is a comprehensive treatment of nonsmooth mechanical systems refocused to give more prominence to control and modelling. It covers Lagrangian and Newton–Euler systems, detailing mathematical tools such as convex analysis and complementarity theory. The ways in which nonsmooth mechanics influence and are influenced by well-posedness analysis, numerical analysis and simulation, modelling and control are explained. Contact/impact laws, stability theory and trajectory-tracking control are given in-depth exposition connected by a framework formed from complementarity systems and measure-differential inclusions. Links are established with electrical circuits with set-valued nonsmooth elements and with other nonsmooth dynamical systems like impulsive and piecewise linear systems. Nonsmooth Mechanics (third edition) has been substantially rewritten, edited and updated to account for the significant body of results that have emerged in the twenty-first century—incl...
Quantum quench dynamics of the Luttinger model
Iucci, A.; Cazalilla, M. A.
2009-12-01
The dynamics of the Luttinger model after a quantum quench is studied. We compute in detail one- and two-point correlation functions for two types of quenches: from a noninteracting to an interacting Luttinger model and vice versa. In the former case, the noninteracting Fermi gas features in the momentum distribution and other correlation functions are destroyed as time evolves. In the infinite-time limit, equal-time correlations are power laws but the critical exponents are found to differ from their equilibrium values. In all cases, we find that these correlations are well described by a generalized Gibbs ensemble [M. Rigol, V. Dunjko, V. Yurovsky, and M. Olshanii, Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 050405 (2007)], which assigns a momentum-dependent temperature to each eigenmode.
A Model of Project and Organisational Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jenny Leonard
2012-04-01
Full Text Available The strategic, transformational nature of many information systems projects is now widely understood. Large-scale implementations of systems are known to require significant management of organisational change in order to be successful. Moreover, projects are rarely executed in isolation – most organisations have a large programme of projects being implemented at any one time. However, project and value management methodologies provide ad hoc definitions of the relationship between a project and its environment. This limits the ability of an organisation to manage the larger dynamics between projects and organisations, over time, and between projects. The contribution of this paper, therefore, is to use literature on organisational theory to provide a more systematic understanding of this area. The organisational facilitators required to obtain value from a project are categorised, and the processes required to develop those facilitators are defined. This formalisation facilitates generalisation between projects and highlights any time and path dependencies required in developing organisational facilitators. The model therefore has the potential to contribute to the development of IS project management theory within dynamic organisational contexts. Six cases illustrate how this model could be used.
Dynamical Model about Rumor Spreading with Medium
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaxia Zhao
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Rumor is a kind of social remark, that is untrue, and not be confirmed, and spreads on a large scale in a short time. Usually, it can induce a cloud of pressure, anxiety, and panic. Traditionally, it is propagated by word of mouth. Nowadays, with the emergence of the internet, rumors can be spread by instant messengers, emails, or publishing. With this new pattern of spreading, an ISRW dynamical model considering the medium as a subclass is established. Beside the dynamical analysis of the model, we mainly explore the mechanism of spreading of individuals-to-individuals and medium-to-individual. By numerical simulation, we find that if we want to control the rumor spreading, it will not only need to control the rate of change of the spreader subclass, but also need to control the change of the information about rumor in medium which has larger influence. Moreover, to control the effusion of rumor is more important than deleting existing information about rumor. On the one hand, government should enhance the management of internet. On the other hand, relevant legal institutions for punishing the rumor creator and spreader on internet who can be tracked should be established. Using this way, involved authorities can propose efficient measures to control the rumor spreading to keep the stabilization of society and development of economy.
Microscopic to Macroscopic Dynamical Models of Sociality
Solis Salas, Citlali; Woolley, Thomas; Pearce, Eiluned; Dunbar, Robin; Maini, Philip; Social; Evolutionary Neuroscience Research Group (Senrg) Collaboration
To help them survive, social animals, such as humans, need to share knowledge and responsibilities with other members of the species. The larger their social network, the bigger the pool of knowledge available to them. Since time is a limited resource, a way of optimising its use is meeting amongst individuals whilst fulfilling other necessities. In this sense it is useful to know how many, and how often, early humans could meet during a given period of time whilst performing other necessary tasks, such as food gathering. Using a simplified model of these dynamics, which comprehend encounter and memory, we aim at producing a lower-bound to the number of meetings hunter-gatherers could have during a year. We compare the stochastic agent-based model to its mean-field approximation and explore some of the features necessary for the difference between low population dynamics and its continuum limit. We observe an emergent property that could have an inference in the layered structure seen in each person's social organisation. This could give some insight into hunter-gatherer's lives and the development of the social layered structure we have today. With support from the Mexican Council for Science and Technology (CONACyT), the Public Education Secretariat (SEP), and the Mexican National Autonomous University's Foundation (Fundacion UNAM).
Modeling habitat dynamics accounting for possible misclassification
Veran, Sophie; Kleiner, Kevin J.; Choquet, Remi; Collazo, Jaime; Nichols, James D.
2012-01-01
Land cover data are widely used in ecology as land cover change is a major component of changes affecting ecological systems. Landscape change estimates are characterized by classification errors. Researchers have used error matrices to adjust estimates of areal extent, but estimation of land cover change is more difficult and more challenging, with error in classification being confused with change. We modeled land cover dynamics for a discrete set of habitat states. The approach accounts for state uncertainty to produce unbiased estimates of habitat transition probabilities using ground information to inform error rates. We consider the case when true and observed habitat states are available for the same geographic unit (pixel) and when true and observed states are obtained at one level of resolution, but transition probabilities estimated at a different level of resolution (aggregations of pixels). Simulation results showed a strong bias when estimating transition probabilities if misclassification was not accounted for. Scaling-up does not necessarily decrease the bias and can even increase it. Analyses of land cover data in the Southeast region of the USA showed that land change patterns appeared distorted if misclassification was not accounted for: rate of habitat turnover was artificially increased and habitat composition appeared more homogeneous. Not properly accounting for land cover misclassification can produce misleading inferences about habitat state and dynamics and also misleading predictions about species distributions based on habitat. Our models that explicitly account for state uncertainty should be useful in obtaining more accurate inferences about change from data that include errors.
Dynamical relaxation in 2HDM models
Lalak, Zygmunt; Markiewicz, Adam
2018-03-01
Dynamical relaxation provides an interesting solution to the hierarchy problem in face of the missing signatures of any new physics in recent experiments. Through a dynamical process taking place in the inflationary phase of the Universe it manages to achieve a small electroweak scale without introducing new states observable in current experiments. Appropriate approximation makes it possible to derive an explicit formula for the final vevs in the double-scanning scenario extended to a model with two Higgs doublets (2HDM). Analysis of the relaxation in the 2HDM confirms that in a general case it is impossible to keep vevs of both scalars small, unless fine-tuning is present or additional symmetries are cast upon the Lagrangian. Within the slightly constrained variant of the 2HDM, where odd powers of the fields’ expectation values are not present (which can be easily enforced by requiring that the doublets have different gauge transformations or by imposing a global symmetry) it is shown that the difference between the vevs of two scalars tends to be proportional to the cutoff. The analysis of the relaxation in 2HDM indicates that in a general case the relaxation would be stopped by the first doublet that gains a vev, with the other one remaining vevless with a mass of the order of the cutoff. This happens to conform with the inert doublet model.
Modeling Insurgent Network Structure and Dynamics
Gabbay, Michael; Thirkill-Mackelprang, Ashley
2010-03-01
We present a methodology for mapping insurgent network structure based on their public rhetoric. Indicators of cooperative links between insurgent groups at both the leadership and rank-and-file levels are used, such as joint policy statements or joint operations claims. In addition, a targeting policy measure is constructed on the basis of insurgent targeting claims. Network diagrams which integrate these measures of insurgent cooperation and ideology are generated for different periods of the Iraqi and Afghan insurgencies. The network diagrams exhibit meaningful changes which track the evolution of the strategic environment faced by insurgent groups. Correlations between targeting policy and network structure indicate that insurgent targeting claims are aimed at establishing a group identity among the spectrum of rank-and-file insurgency supporters. A dynamical systems model of insurgent alliance formation and factionalism is presented which evolves the relationship between insurgent group dyads as a function of their ideological differences and their current relationships. The ability of the model to qualitatively and quantitatively capture insurgent network dynamics observed in the data is discussed.
Modeling quantum fluid dynamics at nonzero temperatures
Berloff, Natalia G.; Brachet, Marc; Proukakis, Nick P.
2014-01-01
The detailed understanding of the intricate dynamics of quantum fluids, in particular in the rapidly growing subfield of quantum turbulence which elucidates the evolution of a vortex tangle in a superfluid, requires an in-depth understanding of the role of finite temperature in such systems. The Landau two-fluid model is the most successful hydrodynamical theory of superfluid helium, but by the nature of the scale separations it cannot give an adequate description of the processes involving vortex dynamics and interactions. In our contribution we introduce a framework based on a nonlinear classical-field equation that is mathematically identical to the Landau model and provides a mechanism for severing and coalescence of vortex lines, so that the questions related to the behavior of quantized vortices can be addressed self-consistently. The correct equation of state as well as nonlocality of interactions that leads to the existence of the roton minimum can also be introduced in such description. We review and apply the ideas developed for finite-temperature description of weakly interacting Bose gases as possible extensions and numerical refinements of the proposed method. We apply this method to elucidate the behavior of the vortices during expansion and contraction following the change in applied pressure. We show that at low temperatures, during the contraction of the vortex core as the negative pressure grows back to positive values, the vortex line density grows through a mechanism of vortex multiplication. This mechanism is suppressed at high temperatures. PMID:24704874
Multi-Scale Modeling of Magnetospheric Dynamics
Kuznetsova, M. M.; Hesse, M.; Toth, G.
2012-01-01
Magnetic reconnection is a key element in many phenomena in space plasma, e.g. Coronal mass Ejections, Magnetosphere substorms. One of the major challenges in modeling the dynamics of large-scale systems involving magnetic reconnection is to quantifY the interaction between global evolution of the magnetosphere and microphysical kinetic processes in diffusion regions near reconnection sites. Recent advances in small-scale kinetic modeling of magnetic reconnection significantly improved our understanding of physical mechanisms controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in collisionless plasma. However the progress in studies of small-scale geometries was not very helpful for large scale simulations. Global magnetosphere simulations usually include non-ideal processes in terms of numerical dissipation and/or ad hoc anomalous resistivity. Comparative studies of magnetic reconnection in small scale geometries demonstrated that MHD simulations that included non-ideal processes in terms of a resistive term 11 J did not produce fast reconnection rates observed in kinetic simulations. In collisionless magnetospheric plasma, the primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site is nongyrotropic pressure effects with spatial scales comparable with the particle Larmor radius. We utilize the global MHD code BATSRUS and replace ad hoc parameters such as "critical current density" and "anomalous resistivity" with a physically motivated model of dissipation. The primary mechanism controlling the dissipation in the vicinity of the reconnection site in incorporated into MHD description in terms of non-gyrotropic corrections to the induction equation. We will demonstrate that kinetic nongyrotropic effects can significantly alter the global magnetosphere evolution. Our approach allowed for the first time to model loading/unloading cycle in response to steady southward IMF driving. The role of solar wind parameters and
A vehicle overtaking model of traffic dynamics.
Jamison, S; McCartney, M
2007-09-01
Mathematical models that describe the dynamical behavior of a group of vehicles as they move along a stretch of road are known as car following models. They attempt to model the interactions between individual vehicles where the behavior of each vehicle is dependent on the motion of the vehicle directly in front and overtaking is not permitted. In this paper, the traditional car following model is modified by removing this "no overtaking" restriction and its behavior is investigated for a group of vehicles traveling on a closed loop. The resulting model is described in terms of a set of coupled time delay differential equations, and these are solved numerically to analyze their post transient behavior under a periodic perturbation. The effect of varying both the time taken for the driver to respond to the behavior of the vehicle in front and the length of the closed loop is examined. For certain parameter choices, the post transient behavior is found to be chaotic, and in these cases the degree of chaos is estimated using the Grassberger-Procaccia dimension.
DYNAMIC MODELLING OF VIBRATIONS ASSISTED DRILLING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mathieu LADONNE
2015-05-01
Full Text Available The number of multi-materials staking configurations for aeronautical structures is increasing, with the evolution of composite and metallic materials. For drilling the fastening holes, the processes of Vibration Assisted Drilling (VAD expand rapidly, as it permits to improve reliability of drilling operations on multilayer structures. Among these processes of VAD, the solution with forced vibrations added to conventional feed to create a discontinuous cutting is the more developed in industry. The back and forth movement allows to improve the evacuation of chips by breaking it. This technology introduces two new operating parameters, the frequency and the amplitude of the oscillation. To optimize the process, the choice of those parameters requires first to model precisely the operation cutting and dynamics. In this paper, a kinematic modelling of the process is firstly proposed. The limits of the model are analysed through comparison between simulations and measurements. The proposed model is used to develop a cutting force model that allows foreseeing the operating conditions which ensure good chips breaking and tool life improvement.
Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of Bacillus anthracis ...
Journal Article Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics and Lagrangian particle deposition models were developed to compare the deposition of aerosolized Bacillus anthracis spores in the respiratory airways of a human with that of the rabbit, a species commonly used in the study of anthrax disease. The respiratory airway geometries for each species were derived from computed tomography (CT) or µCT images. Both models encompassed airways that extended from the external nose to the lung with a total of 272 outlets in the human model and 2878 outlets in the rabbit model. All simulations of spore deposition were conducted under transient, inhalation-exhalation breathing conditions using average species-specific minute volumes. Four different exposure scenarios were modeled in the rabbit based upon experimental inhalation studies. For comparison, human simulations were conducted at the highest exposure concentration used during the rabbit experimental exposures. Results demonstrated that regional spore deposition patterns were sensitive to airway geometry and ventilation profiles. Despite the complex airway geometries in the rabbit nose, higher spore deposition efficiency was predicted in the upper conducting airways of the human at the same air concentration of anthrax spores. This greater deposition of spores in the upper airways in the human resulted in lower penetration and deposition in the tracheobronchial airways and the deep lung than that predict
Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model
Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis
2001-10-01
Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.
Mass Casualty Chemical Incident Operational Framework, Assessment and Best Practices
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Greenwalt, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hibbard, W. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2016-08-09
Emergency response agencies in most US communities are organized, sized, and equipped to manage those emergencies normally expected. Hospitals in particular do not typically have significant excess capacity to handle massive numbers of casualties, as hospital space is an expensive luxury if not needed. Unfortunately this means that in the event of a mass casualty chemical incident the emergency response system will be overwhelmed. This document provides a self-assessment means for emergency managers to examine their response system and identify shortfalls. It also includes lessons from a detailed analysis of five communities: Baltimore, Boise, Houston, Nassau County, and New Orleans. These lessons provide a list of potential critical decisions to allow for pre-planning and a library of best practices that may be helpful in reducing casualties in the event of an incident.
Standard Model-like corrections to Dilatonic Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antipin, Oleg; Krog, Jens; Mølgaard, Esben
2013-01-01
We examine the effects of standard model-like interactions on the near-conformal dynamics of a theory featuring a dilatonic state identified with the standard model-like Higgs. As template for near-conformal dynamics we use a gauge theory with fermionic matter and elementary mesons possessing...... conformal dynamics could accommodate the observed Higgs-like properties....
Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)
2009-01-15
Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.
Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.
2015-11-02
As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D^{2}R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D^{2}R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D^{2}R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D^{2}R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D^{2}R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D^{2}R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D^{2}R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of
Dynamic hysteresis modeling including skin effect using diffusion equation model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hamada, Souad, E-mail: souadhamada@yahoo.fr [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Louai, Fatima Zohra, E-mail: fz_louai@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Nait-Said, Nasreddine, E-mail: n_naitsaid@yahoo.com [LSP-IE: Research Laboratory, Electrical Engineering Department, University of Batna, 05000 Batna (Algeria); Benabou, Abdelkader, E-mail: Abdelkader.Benabou@univ-lille1.fr [L2EP, Université de Lille1, 59655 Villeneuve d’Ascq (France)
2016-07-15
An improved dynamic hysteresis model is proposed for the prediction of hysteresis loop of electrical steel up to mean frequencies, taking into account the skin effect. In previous works, the analytical solution of the diffusion equation for low frequency (DELF) was coupled with the inverse static Jiles-Atherton (JA) model in order to represent the hysteresis behavior for a lamination. In the present paper, this approach is improved to ensure the reproducibility of measured hysteresis loops at mean frequency. The results of simulation are compared with the experimental ones. The selected results for frequencies 50 Hz, 100 Hz, 200 Hz and 400 Hz are presented and discussed.
The Battle for Hue: Casualty and Disease Rates during Urban Warfare
1993-08-01
NAVAL HEALTH RESEARCH CENTER AD-A271 748 THE BATTLE FOR HUE: CASUALTY AND DISEASE RATES DURING URBAN WARFARE C. G. Blood M. E. Anderson DTIC...prior to the first casualties being sustained. 2 The Battle for Flue: Casualty and Disease Rates During Urban Warfare Renewed nationalism with the ending...TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS The Battle for Hue: Casualty and Disease Rates Program Element: 63706N During Urban Warfare Work Unit Number: 6
Casualty Crash Types for which Teens are at Excess Risk
Bingham, C. R.; Shope, J. T.
2007-01-01
This study identified casualty crash types for which teen drivers experience excess risk relative to adults. Michigan State Police crash records were used to examine casualty crashes in two statewide populations of drivers who experienced at least one crash from 1989–1996 (pre-graduated driver licensing in Michigan): teens (ages 16–19) and adults (ages 45–65). Rates and rate ratios (RR) based on crash occurrence per 100,000 person miles driven (PMD) compared teens and adults from the two stat...
Models of dynamical R-parity violation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Csáki, Csaba; Kuflik, Eric [Department of Physics, LEPP, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853 (United States); Slone, Oren; Volansky, Tomer [Raymond and Beverly Sackler School of Physics and Astronomy, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv 69978 (Israel)
2015-06-08
The presence of R-parity violating interactions may relieve the tension between existing LHC constraints and natural supersymmetry. In this paper we lay down the theoretical framework and explore models of dynamical R-parity violation in which the breaking of R-parity is communicated to the visible sector by heavy messenger fields. We find that R-parity violation is often dominated by non-holomorphic operators that have so far been largely ignored, and might require a modification of the existing searches at the LHC. The dynamical origin implies that the effects of such operators are suppressed by the ratio of either the light fermion masses or the supersymmetry breaking scale to the mediation scale, thereby providing a natural explanation for the smallness of R-parity violation. We consider various scenarios, classified by whether R-parity violation, flavor breaking and/or supersymmetry breaking are mediated by the same messenger fields. The most compact case, corresponding to a deformation of the so called flavor mediation scenario, allows for the mediation of supersymmetry breaking, R-parity breaking, and flavor symmetry breaking in a unified manner.
Dynamical Models for Computer Viruses Propagation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José R. C. Piqueira
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Nowadays, digital computer systems and networks are the main engineering tools, being used in planning, design, operation, and control of all sizes of building, transportation, machinery, business, and life maintaining devices. Consequently, computer viruses became one of the most important sources of uncertainty, contributing to decrease the reliability of vital activities. A lot of antivirus programs have been developed, but they are limited to detecting and removing infections, based on previous knowledge of the virus code. In spite of having good adaptation capability, these programs work just as vaccines against diseases and are not able to prevent new infections based on the network state. Here, a trial on modeling computer viruses propagation dynamics relates it to other notable events occurring in the network permitting to establish preventive policies in the network management. Data from three different viruses are collected in the Internet and two different identification techniques, autoregressive and Fourier analyses, are applied showing that it is possible to forecast the dynamics of a new virus propagation by using the data collected from other viruses that formerly infected the network.
Immersive visualization of dynamic CFD model results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Comparato, J.R.; Ringel, K.L.; Heath, D.J.
2004-01-01
With immersive visualization the engineer has the means for vividly understanding problem causes and discovering opportunities to improve design. Software can generate an interactive world in which collaborators experience the results of complex mathematical simulations such as computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling. Such software, while providing unique benefits over traditional visualization techniques, presents special development challenges. The visualization of large quantities of data interactively requires both significant computational power and shrewd data management. On the computational front, commodity hardware is outperforming large workstations in graphical quality and frame rates. Also, 64-bit commodity computing shows promise in enabling interactive visualization of large datasets. Initial interactive transient visualization methods and examples are presented, as well as development trends in commodity hardware and clustering. Interactive, immersive visualization relies on relevant data being stored in active memory for fast response to user requests. For large or transient datasets, data management becomes a key issue. Techniques for dynamic data loading and data reduction are presented as means to increase visualization performance. (author)
Multicritical dynamics for the +- J Ising Model
Ozeki, Y
1998-01-01
Exact dynamical properties are discussed for the +- J Ising model around the multicritical point (MCP). It is found that the relation of relaxations between the non-equilibrium remanent magnetization m(t) and the equilibrium autocorrelation function q(t) at the MCP is different from that at the pure critical point. The dynamic critical exponent for the ferromagnetic ordering defined by m(t)approx t sup - suplambda sup sub m and that for the spin glass ordering defined by q(t)approx t sup - suplambda sup sub q become identical at the MCP. Accurate numerical calculations for them are performed in two and three dimensions using the non-equilibrium relaxation analysis. The MCP is located at p sub m sub c =0.8872+-0.0008 and the exponent is estimated as lambda sub m =lambda sub q =0.021+-0.001 for the square lattice. They are estimated as p sub m sub c =0.7673+-0.0003 and lambda sub m =lambda sub q =0.090+-0.003 for the simple cubic lattice. (author)
Models of dynamical R-parity violation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Csáki, Csaba; Kuflik, Eric; Slone, Oren; Volansky, Tomer
2015-01-01
The presence of R-parity violating interactions may relieve the tension between existing LHC constraints and natural supersymmetry. In this paper we lay down the theoretical framework and explore models of dynamical R-parity violation in which the breaking of R-parity is communicated to the visible sector by heavy messenger fields. We find that R-parity violation is often dominated by non-holomorphic operators that have so far been largely ignored, and might require a modification of the existing searches at the LHC. The dynamical origin implies that the effects of such operators are suppressed by the ratio of either the light fermion masses or the supersymmetry breaking scale to the mediation scale, thereby providing a natural explanation for the smallness of R-parity violation. We consider various scenarios, classified by whether R-parity violation, flavor breaking and/or supersymmetry breaking are mediated by the same messenger fields. The most compact case, corresponding to a deformation of the so called flavor mediation scenario, allows for the mediation of supersymmetry breaking, R-parity breaking, and flavor symmetry breaking in a unified manner.
27 CFR 25.282 - Beer lost by fire, theft, casualty, or act of God.
2010-04-01
..., casualty, or act of God. 25.282 Section 25.282 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms ALCOHOL AND TOBACCO... From Liability § 25.282 Beer lost by fire, theft, casualty, or act of God. (a) General. The tax paid by... by fire, casualty, or act of God. The tax liability on excessive losses of beer from transfer between...
33 CFR 174.101 - Applicability of State casualty reporting system.
2010-07-01
... reporting system. 174.101 Section 174.101 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) BOATING SAFETY STATE NUMBERING AND CASUALTY REPORTING SYSTEMS Casualty Reporting System Requirements § 174.101 Applicability of State casualty reporting system. (a) A State...
Vortex dynamics in nonrelativistic Abelian Higgs model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A.A. Kozhevnikov
2015-11-01
Full Text Available The dynamics of the gauge vortex with arbitrary form of a contour is considered in the framework of the nonrelativistic Abelian Higgs model, including the possibility of the gauge field interaction with the fermion asymmetric background. The equations for the time derivatives of the curvature and the torsion of the vortex contour generalizing the Betchov–Da Rios equations in hydrodynamics, are obtained. They are applied to study the conservation of helicity of the gauge field forming the vortex, twist, and writhe numbers of the vortex contour. It is shown that the conservation of helicity is broken when both terms in the equation of the vortex motion are present, the first due to the exchange of excitations of the phase and modulus of the scalar field and the second one due to the coupling of the gauge field forming the vortex, with the fermion asymmetric background.
Dynamical system analysis of interacting models
Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.
2018-01-01
We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.
Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.
2002-01-01
Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator
Coarsening dynamics in the Vicsek model
Dey, Supravat; Katyal, Nisha; Das, Dibyendu; Puri, Sanjay
We numerically study the flocking model introduced by Vicsek et al. (1995) in the coarsening regime. At standard self-propulsion speeds, we find two distinct growth laws for the coupled density and velocity fields. The characteristic length scale of the density domains grows as Lρ (t) t 1 / 4 , while the velocity length scale grows much faster, viz . , Lv (t) t 5 / 6 . The spatial fluctuations in the density and velocity ordering are studied by calculating the two-point correlation function and the structure factor, which show deviations from the well-known Porod's law. This is a natural consequence of scattering from irregular morphologies that dynamically arise in the system. In contrast, at lower self-propulsion speeds, the morphology is distinct, and as a result a new set of scaling exponents emerge. Most strikingly, the velocity order follows the density order with Lρ (t) Lv (t) t 1 / 4 .
Persistent agents in Axelrod's social dynamics model
Reia, Sandro M.; Neves, Ubiraci P. C.
2016-01-01
Axelrod's model of social dynamics has been studied under the effect of external media. Here we study the formation of cultural domains in the model by introducing persistent agents. These are agents whose cultural traits are not allowed to change but may be spread through local neighborhood. In the absence of persistent agents, the system is known to present a transition from a monocultural to a multicultural regime at some critical Q (number of traits). Our results reveal a dependence of critical Q on the occupation probability p of persistent agents and we obtain the phase diagram of the model in the (p,Q) -plane. The critical locus is explained by the competition of two opposite forces named here barrier and bonding effects. Such forces are verified to be caused by non-persistent agents which adhere (adherent agents) to the set of traits of persistent ones. The adherence (concentration of adherent agents) as a function of p is found to decay for constant Q. Furthermore, adherence as a function of Q is found to decay as a power law with constant p.
Dynamic object-oriented geospatial modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tomáš Richta
2010-02-01
Full Text Available Published literature about moving objects (MO simplifies the problem to the representation and storage of moving points, moving lines, or moving regions. The main insufficiency of this approach is lack of MO inner structure and dynamics modeling – the autonomy of moving agent. This paper describes basics of the object-oriented geospatial methodology for modeling complex systems consisting of agents, which move within spatial environment. The main idea is that during the agent movement, different kinds of connections with other moving or stationary objects are established or disposed, based on some spatial constraint satisfaction or nonfulfilment respectively. The methodology is constructed with regard to following two main conditions – 1 the inner behavior of agents should be represented by any formalism, e.g. Petri net, finite state machine, etc., and 2 the spatial characteristic of environment should be supplied by any information system, that is able to store defined set of spatial types, and support defined set of spatial operations. Finally, the methodology is demonstrated on simple simulation model of tram transportation system.
CFD modeling of the IRIS pressurizer dynamic
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Sanz, Ronny R.; Montesinos, Maria E.; Garcia, Carlos; Bueno, Elizabeth D.; Mazaira, Leorlen R., E-mail: rsanz@instec.cu, E-mail: mmontesi@instec.cu, E-mail: cgh@instec.cu, E-mail: leored1984@gmail.com [Instituto Superior de Tecnologias y Ciencias Aplicadas (InSTEC), La Habana (Cuba); Bezerra, Jair L.; Lira, Carlos A.B. Oliveira, E-mail: jair.lima@ufpe.br, E-mail: cabol@ufpe.br [Universida Federal de Pernambuco (UFPE), Recife, PE (Brazil). Dept. de Energia Nuclear
2015-07-01
Integral layout of nuclear reactor IRIS makes possible the elimination of the spray system, which is usually used to mitigate in-surge transient and also help to Boron homogenization. The study of transients with deficiencies in the Boron homogenization in this technology is very important, because they can cause disturbances in the reactor power and insert a strong reactivity in the core. The detailed knowledge of the behavior of multiphase multicomponent flows is challenging due to the complex phenomena and interactions at the interface. In this context, the CFD modeling is employed in the design of equipment in the nuclear industry as it allows predicting accidents or predicting their performance in dissimilar applications. The aim of the present research is to model the IRIS pressurizer's dynamic using the commercial CFD code CFX. A symmetric tri dimensional model equivalent to 1/8 of the total geometry was adopted to reduce mesh size and minimize processing time. The model considers the coexistence of four phases and also takes into account the heat losses. The relationships for interfacial mass, energy, and momentum transport are programmed and incorporated into CFX. Moreover, two subdomains and several additional variables are defined to monitoring the boron dilution sequences and condensation-evaporation rates in different control volumes. For transient states a non - equilibrium stratification in the pressurizer is considered. This paper discusses the model developed and the behavior of the system for representative transients sequences. The results of analyzed transients of IRIS can be applied to the design of pressurizer internal structures and components. (author)
Kinematical and Dynamical Modeling of Elliptical Galaxies
Mamon, G. A.; Łokas, E.; Dekel, A.; Stoehr, F.; Cox, T. J.
Elements of kinematical and dynamical modeling of elliptical galaxies are presented. In projection, NFW models resemble Sérsic models, but with a very narrow range of shapes (m=3±1). The total density profile of ellipticals cannot be NFW-like because the predicted local M/L and aperture velocity dispersion within an effective radius (R_e) are much lower than observed. Stars must then dominate ellipticals out to a few R_e. Fitting an NFW model to the total density profile of Sérsic+NFW (stars+dark matter [DM]) ellipticals results in very high concentration parameters, as found by X-ray observers. Kinematical modeling of ellipticals assuming an isotropic NFW DM model underestimates M/L at the virial radius by a factor of 1.6 to 2.4, because dissipationless ΛCDM halos have slightly different density profiles and slightly radial velocity anisotropy. In N-body+gas simulations of ellipticals as merger remnants of spirals embedded in DM halos, the slope of the DM density profile is steeper when the initial spiral galaxies are gas-rich. The Hansen & Moore (2006) relation between anisotropy and the slope of the density profile breaks down for gas and DM, but the stars follow an analogous relation with slightly less radial anisotropies for a given density slope. Using kurtosis (h_4) to infer anisotropy in ellipticals is dangerous, as h4 is also sensitive to small levels of rotation. The stationary Jeans equation provides accurate masses out to 8 R_e. The discrepancy between the modeling of Romanowsky et al. (2003), indicating a dearth of DM in ellipticals, and the simulations analyzed by Dekel et al. (2005), which match the spectroscopic observations of ellipticals, is partly due to radial anisotropy and to observing oblate ellipticals face-on. However, one of the 15 solutions to the orbit modeling of Romanowsky et al. is found to have an amount and concentration of DM consistent with ΛCDM predictions.
Dynamic pricing models for electronic business
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Dynamic pricing is the dynamic adjustment of prices to consumers depending upon the value these customers attribute to a product or service. Today's digital economy is ready for dynamic pricing; however recent research has shown that the prices will have to be adjusted in fairly sophisticated ways, based on sound ...
Nonparametric modeling of dynamic functional connectivity in fmri data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Madsen, Kristoffer H.; Røge, Rasmus
2015-01-01
dynamic changes. The existing approaches modeling dynamic connectivity have primarily been based on time-windowing the data and k-means clustering. We propose a nonparametric generative model for dynamic FC in fMRI that does not rely on specifying window lengths and number of dynamic states. Rooted......Dynamic functional connectivity (FC) has in recent years become a topic of interest in the neuroimaging community. Several models and methods exist for both functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and electroencephalography (EEG), and the results point towards the conclusion that FC exhibits...... in Bayesian statistical modeling we use the predictive likelihood to investigate if the model can discriminate between a motor task and rest both within and across subjects. We further investigate what drives dynamic states using the model on the entire data collated across subjects and task/rest. We find...
Pion production model - connection between dynamics and quark models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, T.-S. H.; Sato, T.
2000-05-17
The authors discuss the difficulties in testing the hadron models by using the N{sup *} parameters extracted from the empirical amplitude analyses of the {pi}N and {gamma}N reaction data. As an alternative or perhaps a more advantageous approach, they present a Hamiltonian formulation that can relate the pion production dynamics and the constituent quark models of N{sup *} structure. The application of the approach in investigating the {Delta} and N{sup *}(S{sub 11}) excitations is reviewed. It is found that while the {Delta} excitation can be described satisfactory, the {pi}N scattering in S{sub 11} channel can not be described by the constituent quark models based on either the one-gluon-exchange or one-meson-exchange mechanisms. A phenomenological quark-quark potential has been constructed to reproduce the S{sub 11} amplitude.
2017-02-01
long-range aero-medical evacuation has adverse effects on brain blood flow and tissue oxygenation, as well as lung function in swine models of...neurotrauma and polytrauma. We plan to investigate the effects of aero-medical evacuation on neurophysiology and lung function in swine models of TBI with...Combat Casualties in a Swine Polytrauma PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Richard McCarron, PhD CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Henry M. Jackson Foundation Bethesda
Quantum Dynamics in the HMF Model
Plestid, Ryan; O'Dell, Duncan
2017-04-01
The Hamiltonian Mean Field (HMF) model represents a paradigm in the study of long-range interactions but has never been realized in a lab. Recently Shutz and Morigi (PRL 113) have come close but ultimately fallen short. Their proposal relied on cavity-induced interactions between atoms. If a design using cold atoms is to be successful, an understanding of quantum effects is essential. I will outline the natural quantum generalization of the HMF assuming a BEC by using a generalized Gross-Pitaevskii equation (gGPE). I will show how quantum effects modify features which are well understood in the classical model. More specifically, by working in the semi-classical regime (strong interparticle interactions) we can identify the universal features predicted by catastrophe theory dressed with quantum interference effects. The stationary states of gGPE can be solved exactly and are found to be described by self-consistent Mathieu functions. Finally, I will discuss the connection between the classical description of the dynamics in terms of the Vlassov equation, and the gGPE. We would like to thank the Government of Ontario's OGS program, NSERC, and the Perimeter Institute of Theoretical Physics.
Improving Bioenergy Crops through Dynamic Metabolic Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mojdeh Faraji
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Enormous advances in genetics and metabolic engineering have made it possible, in principle, to create new plants and crops with improved yield through targeted molecular alterations. However, while the potential is beyond doubt, the actual implementation of envisioned new strains is often difficult, due to the diverse and complex nature of plants. Indeed, the intrinsic complexity of plants makes intuitive predictions difficult and often unreliable. The hope for overcoming this challenge is that methods of data mining and computational systems biology may become powerful enough that they could serve as beneficial tools for guiding future experimentation. In the first part of this article, we review the complexities of plants, as well as some of the mathematical and computational methods that have been used in the recent past to deepen our understanding of crops and their potential yield improvements. In the second part, we present a specific case study that indicates how robust models may be employed for crop improvements. This case study focuses on the biosynthesis of lignin in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum. Switchgrass is considered one of the most promising candidates for the second generation of bioenergy production, which does not use edible plant parts. Lignin is important in this context, because it impedes the use of cellulose in such inedible plant materials. The dynamic model offers a platform for investigating the pathway behavior in transgenic lines. In particular, it allows predictions of lignin content and composition in numerous genetic perturbation scenarios.
Linking spatial and dynamic models for traffic maneuvers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olderog, Ernst-Rüdiger; Ravn, Anders Peter; Wisniewski, Rafal
2015-01-01
For traffic maneuvers of multiple vehicles on highways we build an abstract spatial and a concrete dynamic model. In the spatial model we show the safety (collision freedom) of lane-change maneuvers. By linking the spatial and dynamic model via suitable refinements of the spatial atoms to distance...
Dynamics in Higher Education Politics: A Theoretical Model
Kauko, Jaakko
2013-01-01
This article presents a model for analysing dynamics in higher education politics (DHEP). Theoretically the model draws on the conceptual history of political contingency, agenda-setting theories and previous research on higher education dynamics. According to the model, socio-historical complexity can best be analysed along two dimensions: the…
Maritime piracy situation modelling with dynamic Bayesian networks
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Dabrowski, James M
2015-05-01
Full Text Available A generative model for modelling maritime vessel behaviour is proposed. The model is a novel variant of the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN). The proposed DBN is in the form of a switching linear dynamic system (SLDS) that has been extended into a...
Management of the mass casualty from the 2001 Jos crisis
African Journals Online (AJOL)
2012-11-04
Nov 4, 2012 ... Background: We report our experience in the hospital management of mass casualty following the Jos civil crisis of 2001. Materials and Methods:A retrospective analysis of the records of patients managed in the Jos civil crisis of September. 2001, in Plateau State, Nigeria. Information extracted included ...
Iraqi Civilian: Police, and Security Forces Casualty Estimates
2006-09-14
2006.1 These figures combine two counts: one from the Iraq Ministry of Health, which records deaths reported by hospitals; and one from the Medico ...casualties as well using an IBC-like method of posting media reports of deaths. ICCC, like IBC, is prone to the kind of errors likely when using media
26 CFR 1.165-7 - Casualty losses.
2010-04-01
... repairs do not care for more than the damage suffered, and (d) the value of the property after the repairs... where damage by casualty has occurred to a building and ornamental or fruit trees used in a trade or business, the decrease in value shall be measured by taking the building and trees into account separately...
Nonlinear dynamics new directions models and applications
Ugalde, Edgardo
2015-01-01
This book, along with its companion volume, Nonlinear Dynamics New Directions: Theoretical Aspects, covers topics ranging from fractal analysis to very specific applications of the theory of dynamical systems to biology. This second volume contains mostly new applications of the theory of dynamical systems to both engineering and biology. The first volume is devoted to fundamental aspects and includes a number of important new contributions as well as some review articles that emphasize new development prospects. The topics addressed in the two volumes include a rigorous treatment of fluctuations in dynamical systems, topics in fractal analysis, studies of the transient dynamics in biological networks, synchronization in lasers, and control of chaotic systems, among others. This book also: · Develops applications of nonlinear dynamics on a diversity of topics such as patterns of synchrony in neuronal networks, laser synchronization, control of chaotic systems, and the study of transient dynam...
MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.
A Dynamic Travel Time Estimation Model Based on Connected Vehicles
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daxin Tian
2015-01-01
Full Text Available With advances in connected vehicle technology, dynamic vehicle route guidance models gradually become indispensable equipment for drivers. Traditional route guidance models are designed to direct a vehicle along the shortest path from the origin to the destination without considering the dynamic traffic information. In this paper a dynamic travel time estimation model is presented which can collect and distribute traffic data based on the connected vehicles. To estimate the real-time travel time more accurately, a road link dynamic dividing algorithm is proposed. The efficiency of the model is confirmed by simulations, and the experiment results prove the effectiveness of the travel time estimation method.
Dynamic modelling and analysis of space webs
Yu, Yang; Baoyin, HeXi; Li, JunFeng
2011-04-01
Future space missions demand operations on large flexible structures, for example, space webs, the lightweight cable nets deployable in space, which can serve as platforms for very large structures or be used to capture orbital objects. The interest in research on space webs is likely to increase in the future with the development of promising applications such as Furoshiki sat-ellite of JAXA, Robotic Geostationary Orbit Restorer (ROGER) of ESA and Grapple, Retrieve And Secure Payload (GRASP) of NASA. Unlike high-tensioned nets in civil engineering, space webs may be low-tensioned or tensionless, and extremely flexible, owing to the microgravity in the orbit and the lack of support components, which may cause computational difficulties. Mathematical models are necessary in the analysis of space webs, especially in the conceptual design and evaluation for prototypes. A full three-dimensional finite element (FE) model was developed in this work. Trivial truss elements were adopted to reduce the computational complexity. Considering cable is a compression-free material and its tensile stiffness is also variable, we introduced the cable material constitutive relationship to work out an accurate and feasible model for prototype analysis and design. In the static analysis, the stress distribution and global deformation of the webs were discussed to get access to the knowledge of strength of webs with different types of meshes. In the dynamic analysis, special attention was paid to the impact problem. The max stress and global deformation were investigated. The simulation results indicate the interesting phenomenon which may be worth further research.
Modeling the metastable dynamics of correlated structures
Shakirov, Alexey M.; Tsibulsky, Sergey V.; Antipov, Andrey E.; Shchadilova, Yulia E.; Rubtsov, Alexey N.
2015-01-01
Metastable quantum dynamics of an asymmetric triangular cluster that is coupled to a reservoir is investigated. The dynamics is governed by bath-mediated transitions, which in part require a thermal activation process. The decay rate is controlled by tuning the excitation spectrum of the frustrated cluster. We use the master equation approach and construct transition operators in terms of many-body states. We analyze dynamics of observables and reveal metastability of an excited state and of a magnetically polarized ground state.
Hybrid Dynamical Systems Modeling, Stability, and Robustness
Goebel, Rafal; Teel, Andrew R
2012-01-01
Hybrid dynamical systems exhibit continuous and instantaneous changes, having features of continuous-time and discrete-time dynamical systems. Filled with a wealth of examples to illustrate concepts, this book presents a complete theory of robust asymptotic stability for hybrid dynamical systems that is applicable to the design of hybrid control algorithms--algorithms that feature logic, timers, or combinations of digital and analog components. With the tools of modern mathematical analysis, Hybrid Dynamical Systems unifies and generalizes earlier developments in continuous-time and discret
External models of frictional interaction dynamics
Tyurin, A. E.; Ismailov, G. M.; Ikonnikova, K. V.; Sarkisov, Y. S.
2017-10-01
This investigation suggests a method used to determine the evolution of metallic wear and friction by sliding. The friction of steel moving over brass was taken as an example. The problem of external dynamics friction is investigated through the definition of the dynamic characteristics such as damping factor and natural frequency. Some certain automatic control methods were applied for sliding friction contact, including parametric identification, ARX simulation and Newton’s dynamic equation. The suggested approach allows using amplitude-frequency characteristics to assess the dynamic factors (coefficients) under friction interaction. The research findings indicate that the proposed method allows monitoring the evolution of metallic wear and friction.
Modelling dynamics with context-free grammars
García-Huerta, Juan-M.; Jiménez-Hernández, Hugo; Herrera-Navarro, Ana-M.; Hernández-Díaz, Teresa; Terol-Villalobos, Ivan
2014-03-01
This article presents a strategy to model the dynamics performed by vehicles in a freeway. The proposal consists on encode the movement as a set of finite states. A watershed-based segmentation is used to localize regions with high-probability of motion. Each state represents a proportion of a camera projection in a two-dimensional space, where each state is associated to a symbol, such that any combination of symbols is expressed as a language. Starting from a sequence of symbols through a linear algorithm a free-context grammar is inferred. This grammar represents a hierarchical view of common sequences observed into the scene. Most probable grammar rules express common rules associated to normal movement behavior. Less probable rules express themselves a way to quantify non-common behaviors and they might need more attention. Finally, all sequences of symbols that does not match with the grammar rules, may express itself uncommon behaviors (abnormal). The grammar inference is built with several sequences of images taken from a freeway. Testing process uses the sequence of symbols emitted by the scenario, matching the grammar rules with common freeway behaviors. The process of detect abnormal/normal behaviors is managed as the task of verify if any word generated by the scenario is recognized by the grammar.
Modeling proteasome dynamics in Parkinson's disease
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sneppen, Kim; Lizana, Ludvig; Jensen, Mogens H; Pigolotti, Simone; Otzen, Daniel
2009-01-01
In Parkinson's disease (PD), there is evidence that α-synuclein (αSN) aggregation is coupled to dysfunctional or overburdened protein quality control systems, in particular the ubiquitin–proteasome system. Here, we develop a simple dynamical model for the on-going conflict between αSN aggregation and the maintenance of a functional proteasome in the healthy cell, based on the premise that proteasomal activity can be titrated out by mature αSN fibrils and their protofilament precursors. In the presence of excess proteasomes the cell easily maintains homeostasis. However, when the ratio between the available proteasome and the αSN protofilaments is reduced below a threshold level, we predict a collapse of homeostasis and onset of oscillations in the proteasome concentration. Depleted proteasome opens for accumulation of oligomers. Our analysis suggests that the onset of PD is associated with a proteasome population that becomes occupied in periodic degradation of aggregates. This behavior is found to be the general state of a proteasome/chaperone system under pressure, and suggests new interpretations of other diseases where protein aggregation could stress elements of the protein quality control system
Detonation Shock Dynamics Modelling with Arbitrary Boundaries
Hodgson, Alexander
2017-06-01
The Detonation Shock Dynamics (DSD) model can be used to predict detonation wave propagation in a high explosive (HE). The detonation wave is prescribed a velocity that depends on its curvature. Additionally, the angle between the wave and the HE boundary may not exceed a specified ``boundary angle'', the value of which depends on the HE and its confining material(s). The level-set method is commonly used to drive DSD computation. Boundary conditions are applied to the level-set field at the charge edges to maintain the explosive boundary angle criteria. The position of the boundary must be accurate and continuous across adjacent cells to achieve accurate and robust results. This is mainly an issue for mixed material meshes where the boundary does not coincide with the cell boundaries. For such meshes, a set of volume fractions defines the amount of material in each cell. The boundary is defined implicitly by the volume fractions, and must be reconstructed to an explicit form for use in DSD. This work describes a novel synthesis of the level-set method and simulated annealing, an optimisation method used to reconstruct the boundary. The accuracy and robustness of the resulting DSD calculation are evaluated with a range of test problems.
Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mircea Gabriela
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.
Dynamics of the Random Field Ising Model
Xu, Jian
The Random Field Ising Model (RFIM) is a general tool to study disordered systems. Crackling noise is generated when disordered systems are driven by external forces, spanning a broad range of sizes. Systems with different microscopic structures such as disordered mag- nets and Earth's crust have been studied under the RFIM. In this thesis, we investigated the domain dynamics and critical behavior in two dipole-coupled Ising ferromagnets Nd2Fe14B and LiHoxY 1-xF4. With Tc well above room temperature, Nd2Fe14B has shown reversible disorder when exposed to an external transverse field and crosses between two universality classes in the strong and weak disorder limits. Besides tunable disorder, LiHoxY1-xF4 has shown quantum tunneling effects arising from quantum fluctuations, providing another mechanism for domain reversal. Universality within and beyond power law dependence on avalanche size and energy were studied in LiHo0.65Y0.35 F4.
Dynamic causal models of neural system dynamics: current state ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Prakash
2006-09-28
Sep 28, 2006 ... 3. Principles of DCM. An important limitation of previous methods for determining effective connectivity from functional imaging data, e.g. structural equation modelling (McIntosh and Gonzalez-. Lima 1994; Büchel and Friston 1997) or multivariate autoregressive models (Goebel et al 2003; Harrison et al.
An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin
2015-01-01
Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model) w...
A System Dynamic Model of Leader Emergence
2008-03-01
Judge, 2004; Judge, Bono, Ilies, & Gerhardt, 2002; Eagly, Johanneses-Schmidt, & Van Engen , 2003; Taggar, Hackett, & Saha, 1999; Stogdill, 1948...System dynamics emerged from the study of electrical control systems, and when generalized found many useful applications in natural systems outside...of the electrical world (Forrester, 1992). Whereas correlations describe cause and effect relationships in a linear equation, system dynamics
Modeling interfacial dynamics using nonequilibrium thermodynamics frameworks
Sagis, L.M.C.
2013-01-01
In recent years several nonequilibrium thermodynamic frameworks have been developed capable of describing the dynamics of multiphase systems with complex microstructured interfaces. In this paper we present an overview of these frameworks. We will discuss interfacial dynamics in the context of the
Non-equilibrium dynamics of Gaudin models
Barmettler, P.; Fioretto, D.; Gritsev, V.
2013-01-01
n classical mechanics the theory of non-linear dynamics provides a detailed framework for the distinction between near-integrable and chaotic systems. Quite in opposition, in quantum many-body theory no generic microscopic principle at the origin of complex dynamics is known. Here we show that the
Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models
2016-08-02
Stochastic Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for...12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 Online learning , multi-armed bandit, dynamic networks REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S... Online Learning in Dynamic Networks under Unknown Models Report Title This research aims to develop fundamental theories and practical algorithms for
A review of dynamics modelling of friction wedge suspensions
Wu, Qing; Cole, Colin; Spiryagin, Maksym; Sun, Yan Quan
2014-11-01
Three-piece bogies with friction wedge suspensions are the most widely used bogies in heavy haul trains. Fiction wedge suspensions play a key role in these wagon systems. This article reviews current techniques in dynamic modelling of friction wedge suspension with various motivations: to improve dynamic models of friction wedge suspensions so as to improve general wagon dynamics simulations; to seek better friction wedge suspension models for wagon stability assessments in complex train systems; to improve the modelling of other friction devices, such as friction draft gear. Relevant theories and friction wedge suspension models developed by using commercial simulation packages and in-house simulation packages are reviewed.
Modeling urban films using a dynamic multimedia fugacity model.
Csiszar, Susan A; Diamond, Miriam L; Thibodeaux, Louis J
2012-05-01
A thin film coats impervious urban surfaces that can act as a source or sink of organic pollutants to the greater environment. We review recent developments in the understanding of film and film-associated pollutant behavior and incorporate them into an unsteady-state version of the fugacity based Multimedia Urban Model (MUM), focusing on detailed considerations of surface film dynamics. The model is used to explore the conditions under which these atmospherically-derived films act as a temporary source of chemicals to the air and/or storm water. Assuming film growth of 2.1 nm d(-1) (Wu et al., 2008a), PCB congeners 28 and 180 reach air-film equilibrium within hours and days, respectively. The model results suggest that the film acts as a temporary sink of chemicals from air during dry and cool weather, as a source to air in warmer weather, and as a source to storm water and soil during rain events. Using the downtown area of the City of Toronto Canada, as a case study, the model estimates that nearly 1 g d(-1) of ∑(5)PCBs are transferred from air to film to storm water. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Fractional Relativistic Yamaleev Oscillator Model and Its Dynamical Behaviors
Luo, Shao-Kai; He, Jin-Man; Xu, Yan-Li; Zhang, Xiao-Tian
2016-07-01
In the paper we construct a new kind of fractional dynamical model, i.e. the fractional relativistic Yamaleev oscillator model, and explore its dynamical behaviors. We will find that the fractional relativistic Yamaleev oscillator model possesses Lie algebraic structure and satisfies generalized Poisson conservation law. We will also give the Poisson conserved quantities of the model. Further, the relation between conserved quantities and integral invariants of the model is studied and it is proved that, by using the Poisson conserved quantities, we can construct integral invariants of the model. Finally, the stability of the manifold of equilibrium states of the fractional relativistic Yamaleev oscillator model is studied. The paper provides a general method, i.e. fractional generalized Hamiltonian method, for constructing a family of fractional dynamical models of an actual dynamical system.
The development of a comvenient thermal dynamic building model
Achterbosch, G.G.J.; de Jong, P.P.G.; Krist-Spit, C.E.; van der Meulen, S.F.; Verberne, J.F.C.
1985-01-01
The present paper describes a method to set up a thermal building model combining relative simplicity with high dynamic accuracy. The models were verified in two Dutch semi-detached dwellings characterized by extreme values of thermal capacity.
Intraosseous vascular access in disasters and mass casualty events: A review of the literature.
Burgert, James M
2016-01-01
The intraosseous (IO) route of vascular access has been increasingly used to administer resuscitative fluids and drugs to patients in whom reliable intravenous (IV) access could not be rapidly or easily obtained. It is unknown that to what extent the IO route has been used to gain vascular access during disasters and mass casualty events. The purpose of this review was to examine the existing literature to answer the research question, "What is the utility of the IO route compared to other routes for establishing vascular access in patients resulting from disasters and mass casualty events?" Keyword-based online database search of PubMed, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. University-based academic research cell. Included evidence were randomized and nonrandomized trials, systematic reviews with and without meta-analysis, case series, and case reports. Excluded evidence included narrative reviews and expert opinion. Not applicable. Of 297 evidence sources located, 22 met inclusion criteria. Located evidence was organized into four categories including chemical agent poisoning, IO placement, while wearing chemical protective clothing (PPE), military trauma, and infectious disease outbreak. Evidence indicates that the IO route of infusion is pharmacokinetically equal to the IV route and superior to the intramuscular (IM) and endotracheal routes for the administration of antidotal drugs in animal models of chemical agent poisoning while wearing full chemical PPE. The IO route is superior to the IM route for antidote administration during hypovolemic shock. Civilian casualties of explosive attacks and mass shootings would likely benefit from expanded use of the IO route and military resuscitation strategies. The IO route is useful for fluid resuscitation in the management of diarrheal and hemorrhagic infectious disease outbreaks.
Stewart, Ian J; Faulk, Tarra I; Sosnov, Jonathan A; Clemens, Michael S; Elterman, Joel; Ross, James D; Howard, Jeffrey T; Fang, Raymond; Zonies, David H; Chung, Kevin K
2016-03-01
Rhabdomyolysis has been associated with poor outcomes in patients with traumatic injury, especially in the setting of acute kidney injury (AKI). However, rhabdomyolysis has not been systematically examined in a large cohort of combat casualties injured in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We conducted a retrospective study of casualties injured during combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan who were initially admitted to the intensive care unit from February 1, 2002, to February 1, 2011. Information on age, sex, Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score, Injury Severity Score (ISS), mechanism of injury, shock index, creatine kinase, and serum creatinine were collected. These variables were examined via multivariate logistic and Cox regression analyses to determine factors independently associated with rhabdomyolysis, AKI, and death. Of 6,011 admissions identified, a total of 2,109 patients met inclusion criteria and were included for analysis. Rhabdomyolysis, defined as creatine kinase greater than 5,000 U/L, was present in 656 subjects (31.1%). Risk factors for rhabdomyolysis identified on multivariable analysis included injuries to the abdomen and extremities, increased ISS, male sex, explosive mechanism of injury, and shock index greater than 0.9. After adjustment, patients with rhabdomyolysis had a greater than twofold increase in the odds of AKI. In the analysis for mortality, rhabdomyolysis was significantly associated with death until AKI was added, at which point it lost statistical significance. We found that rhabdomyolysis is associated with the development of AKI in combat casualties. While rhabdomyolysis was strongly associated with mortality on the univariate model and in conjunction with both ISS and age, it was not associated with mortality after the inclusion of AKI. This suggests that the effect of rhabdomyolysis on mortality may be mediated by AKI. Prognostic and epidemiologic study, level III.
Bistable dynamics of an insect–pathogen model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Here, we were able to construct an insect–pathogen model which has bistable dynamics. This simple model may be helpful to identify the universal mechanisms which lead to bistability in a biological system. The control of bistable system is very difficult because the dynamics has sensitivity to initial conditions. Therefore, to ...
Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals
2013-05-01
occurs in ballistic impact, and accompanies amorphization in diamond anvil cell (DAC) experiments (Yan et al., 2009). Fracture in boron carbide ...Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals by J. D. Clayton ARL-RP-440 May 2013...Ground, MD 21005-5069 ARL-RP-440 May 2013 Mesoscale Modeling of Dynamic Compression of Boron Carbide Polycrystals J. D. Clayton
Mathematical model of the bacteria-nutrient dynamics | Inyama ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper we developed a Mathematical Model of bacteria-nutrient dynamics which results in a system of first order ordinary differential equations. The analysis of the model was done using dynamical systems. It was found out that the product of the maximum nutrient uptake per cel; and the number of cells produced per ...
Dynamic root uptake model for neutral lipophilic organics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Trapp, Stefan
2002-01-01
and output to stem with the transpiration stream plus first-order metabolism and dilution by exponential growth. For chemicals with low or intermediate lipophilicity (log Kow , 2), there was no relevant difference between dynamic model and equilibrium approach. For lipophilic compounds, the dynamic model...
Dynamic of exact perturbations in Bianchi IX type cosmological models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Mello Neto, J.R.T. de.
1985-01-01
The dynamic of Bianchi IX type cosmological models is studied, after reducing Einstein equations to Hamiltonian system. Using the Melnikov method, the existence of chaos in the dynamic of these models is proved, and some numerical experiments are carried out. (M.C.K.) [pt
Fractional Lorentz-Dirac Model and Its Dynamical Behaviors
Luo, Shao-Kai; Xu, Yan-Li
2015-02-01
In the paper, we construct a new kind of fractional dynamical model, i.e. the fractional Lorentz-Dirac model, and explore dynamical behaviors of the model. We find that the fractional Lorentz-Dirac model possesses Lie algebraic structure and satisfies generalized Poisson conservation law, and then a series of Poisson conserved quantities of the model are given. Further, the relation between conserved quantity and integral invariant of the model is studied, and it is proved that, using the Poisson conserved quantities, we can construct a series of integral invariants of the model. Finally, the stability for the manifolds of equilibrium state of the fractional Lorentz-Dirac model is studied.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Raftery, Adrian E; Karny, Miroslav; Andrysek, Josef; Ettler, Pavel
2007-01-01
... is. We develop a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) in which a state space model for the parameters of each model is combined with a Markov chain model for the correct model. This allows the (correct...
Cholera transmission dynamic models for public health practitioners
Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai
2014-01-01
Great progress has been made in mathematical models of cholera transmission dynamics in recent years. However, little impact, if any, has been made by models upon public health decision-making and day-to-day routine of epidemiologists. This paper provides a brief introduction to the basics of ordinary differential equation models of cholera transmission dynamics. We discuss a basic model adapted from Codeço (2001), and how it can be modified to incorporate different hypotheses, including the ...
Dynamics of mathematical models in biology bringing mathematics to life
Zazzu, Valeria; Guarracino, Mario
2016-01-01
This volume focuses on contributions from both the mathematics and life science community surrounding the concepts of time and dynamicity of nature, two significant elements which are often overlooked in modeling process to avoid exponential computations. The book is divided into three distinct parts: dynamics of genomes and genetic variation, dynamics of motifs, and dynamics of biological networks. Chapters included in dynamics of genomes and genetic variation analyze the molecular mechanisms and evolutionary processes that shape the structure and function of genomes and those that govern genome dynamics. The dynamics of motifs portion of the volume provides an overview of current methods for motif searching in DNA, RNA and proteins, a key process to discover emergent properties of cells, tissues, and organisms. The part devoted to the dynamics of biological networks covers networks aptly discusses networks in complex biological functions and activities that interpret processes in cells. Moreover, chapters i...
Multibody dynamics model building using graphical interfaces
Macala, Glenn A.
1989-01-01
In recent years, the extremely laborious task of manually deriving equations of motion for the simulation of multibody spacecraft dynamics has largely been eliminated. Instead, the dynamicist now works with commonly available general purpose dynamics simulation programs which generate the equations of motion either explicitly or implicitly via computer codes. The user interface to these programs has predominantly been via input data files, each with its own required format and peculiarities, causing errors and frustrations during program setup. Recent progress in a more natural method of data input for dynamics programs: the graphical interface, is described.
System Dynamics (SD) models are useful for holistic integration of data to evaluate indirect and cumulative effects and inform decisions. Complex SD models can provide key insights into how decisions affect the three interconnected pillars of sustainability. However, the complexi...
Modeling Dynamic Fracture of Cryogenic Pellets
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Parks, Paul [General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States)
2016-06-30
This work is part of an investigation with the long-range objective of predicting the size distribution function and velocity dispersion of shattered pellet fragments after a large cryogenic pellet impacts a solid surface at high velocity. The study is vitally important for the shattered pellet injection (SPI) technique, one of the leading technologies being implemented at ORNL for the mitigation of disruption damage on current tokamaks and ITER. The report contains three parts that are somewhat interwoven. In Part I we formulated a self-similar model for the expansion dynamics and velocity dispersion of the debris cloud following pellet impact against a thick (rigid) target plate. Also presented in Part I is an analytical fracture model that predicts the nominal or mean size of the fragments in the debris cloud and agrees well with known SPI data. The aim of Part II is to gain an understanding of the pellet fracturing process when a pellet is shattered inside a miter tube with a sharp bend. Because miter tubes have a thin stainless steel (SS) wall a permanent deformation (dishing) of the wall is produced at the site of the impact. A review of the literature indicates that most projectile impact on thin plates are those for which the target is deformed and the projectile is perfectly rigid. Such impacts result in “projectile embedding” where the projectile speed is reduced to zero during the interaction so that all the kinetic energy (KE) of the projectile goes into the energy stored in plastic deformation. Much of the literature deals with perforation of the target. The problem here is quite different; the softer pellet easily undergoes complete material failure causing only a small transfer of KE to stored energy of wall deformation. For the real miter tube, we derived a strain energy function for the wall deflection using a non-linear (plastic) stress-strain relation for 304 SS. Using a dishing profile identical to the linear Kirchkoff-Love profile (for lack
Modelling of dynamic equivalents in electric power grids
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Craciun, Diana Iuliana
2010-01-01
In a first part, this research thesis proposes a description of the context and new constraints of electric grids: architecture, decentralized production with the impact of distributed energy resource systems, dynamic simulation, and interest of equivalent models. Then, the author discusses the modelling of the different components of electric grids: synchronous and asynchronous machines, distributed energy resource with power electronic interface, loading models. She addresses the techniques of reduction of electric grid models: conventional reduction methods, dynamic equivalence methods using non linear approaches or evolutionary algorithm-based methods of assessment of parameters. This last approach is then developed and implemented, and a new method of computation of dynamic equivalents is described
The influence of car registration year on driver casualty rates in Great Britain.
Broughton, Jeremy
2012-03-01
A previous paper analysed data from the British national road accident reporting system to investigate the influence upon car driver casualty rates of the general type of car being driven and its year of first registration. A statistical model was fitted to accident data from 2001 to 2005, and this paper updates the principal results using accident data from 2003 to 2007. Attention focuses upon the role of year of first registration since this allows the influence of developments in car design upon occupant casualty numbers to be evaluated. Three additional topics are also examined with these accident data. Changes over time in frontal and side impacts are compared. Changes in the combined risk for the two drivers involved in a car-car collision are investigated, being the net result of changes in secondary safety and aggressivity. Finally, the results of the new model relating to occupant protection are related to an index that had been developed previously to analyse changes over time in the secondary safety of the car fleet. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Some results on the dynamics generated by the Bazykin model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Georgescu, R M
2006-07-01
Full Text Available A predator-prey model formerly proposed by A. Bazykin et al. [Bifurcation diagrams of planar dynamical systems (1985] is analyzed in the case when two of the four parameters are kept fixed. Dynamics and bifurcation results are deduced by using the methods developed by D. K. Arrowsmith and C. M. Place [Ordinary differential equations (1982], S.-N. Chow et al. [Normal forms and bifurcation of planar fields (1994], Y. A. Kuznetsov [Elements of applied bifurcation theory (1998], and A. Georgescu [Dynamic bifurcation diagrams for some models in economics and biology (2004]. The global dynamic bifurcation diagram is constructed and graphically represented. The biological interpretation is presented, too.
Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas Anung Basuki
2010-08-01
Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.
Developing a Dynamic Pharmacophore Model for HIV-1 Integrase
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlson, Heather A.; Masukawa, Keven M.; Rubins, Kathleen; Bushman, Frederic; Jorgensen, William L.; Lins, Roberto; Briggs, James; Mccammon, Andy
2000-01-01
We present the first receptor-based pharmacophore model for HIV-1 integrase. The development of ''dynamic'' pharmacophore models is a new method that accounts for the inherent flexibility of the active site and aims to reduce the entropic penalties associated with binding a ligand. Furthermore, this new drug discovery method overcomes the limitation of an incomplete crystal structure of the target protein. A molecular dynamics (MD) simulation describes the flexibility of the uncomplexed protein. Many conformational models of the protein are saved from the MD simulations and used in a series of multi-unit search for interacting conformers (MUSIC) simulations. MUSIC is a multiple-copy minimization method, available in the BOSS program; it is used to determine binding regions for probe molecules containing functional groups that complement the active site. All protein conformations from the MD are overlaid, and conserved binding regions for the probe molecules are identified. Those conserved binding regions define the dynamic pharmacophore model. Here, the dynamic model is compared to known inhibitors of the integrase as well as a three-point, ligand-based pharmacophore model from the literature. Also, a ''static'' pharmacophore model was determined in the standard fashion, using a single crystal structure. Inhibitors thought to bind in the active site of HIV-1 integrase fit the dynamic model but not the static model. Finally, we have identified a set of compounds from the Available Chemicals Directory that fit the dynamic pharmacophore model, and experimental testing of the compounds has confirmed several new inhibitors
An Efficient Dynamic Trust Evaluation Model for Wireless Sensor Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhengwang Ye
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Trust evaluation is an effective method to detect malicious nodes and ensure security in wireless sensor networks (WSNs. In this paper, an efficient dynamic trust evaluation model (DTEM for WSNs is proposed, which implements accurate, efficient, and dynamic trust evaluation by dynamically adjusting the weights of direct trust and indirect trust and the parameters of the update mechanism. To achieve accurate trust evaluation, the direct trust is calculated considering multitrust including communication trust, data trust, and energy trust with the punishment factor and regulating function. The indirect trust is evaluated conditionally by the trusted recommendations from a third party. Moreover, the integrated trust is measured by assigning dynamic weights for direct trust and indirect trust and combining them. Finally, we propose an update mechanism by a sliding window based on induced ordered weighted averaging operator to enhance flexibility. We can dynamically adapt the parameters and the interactive history windows number according to the actual needs of the network to realize dynamic update of direct trust value. Simulation results indicate that the proposed dynamic trust model is an efficient dynamic and attack-resistant trust evaluation model. Compared with existing approaches, the proposed dynamic trust model performs better in defending multiple malicious attacks.
Tactical Combat Casualty Care 2007: Evolving Concepts and Battlefield Experience
2007-11-01
torso trauma and respiratory distress Sucking chest wounds should be treated by applying a petroleum gauze during expiration, covering it with tape...be treated with a petroleum gauze applied during expiration, covering it with tape or a field dressing, placing the casualty In the sitting...nonsteroidals primarily because it did not inter- fere with platelet function, as aspirin and cyclooxygenase 1 nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs
Retrospection. Uranium mining Wismut und the legal casualty insurance
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Breuer, Joachim
2015-01-01
Although the Wismut uranium mining company in the former DDR had 600.000 employees, the company was not mentioned in the contract on the German reunification. The expenses for the health consequences imposed manifold challenges to the legal casualty insurance. The question of responsibility, the conservation, digitalization and evaluation of data concerning the personnel and health information, partially handwritten is a tremendous amount of work.
Emergency department staff preparedness for mass casualty events involving children.
Rassin, Michal; Avraham, Miri; Nasi-Bashari, Anat; Idelman, Sigalit; Peretz, Yaniv; Morag, Shani; Silner, Dina; Weiss, Gali
2007-01-01
In recent years, the World Health Organization in general, and Israel in particular, have dealt with mass casualty events (MCEs) resulting from terrorism. Children are the casualties in many of these events-a reality that forces hospitals to prepare to deal with such a scenario. A literature review designed to identify unique recommendations regarding pediatric MCEs highlights both a lack of existing training programs and uncertainty on the part of health care staff when dealing with these events. The purpose of the study was to examine the preparedness level of emergency department staff to deal with MCEs involving pediatric casualties. The study included 104 physicians and nurses working in, or responding to, the emergency department at a hospital in Israel. The study included a 41-item questionnaire examining perception, approaches, and staff knowledge regarding dealing with pediatric MCEs versus those involving adults. The reliability of all sections of the questionnaire ranged between Chronbach's alpha coefficient 0.6 alpha-0.94. The preparedness levels for MCEs involving children were found to be low. Study participants ranked the likelihood of a pediatric MCE lower than one involving adults, while ranking significantly higher (P = .000) their ability to cope mentally and the knowledge and skills required when treating adults involved in MCEs. While nurses ranked higher than physicians regarding their knowledge and skills in dealing with pediatric MCE casualties, the level of knowledge for MCEs involving children was low in all subjects. Staff agreement for the parent of an MCE victim to be present during treatment was medium-low. On the basis of these findings, additional research involving a larger number of individuals and hospitals is indicated to determine if these results are consistent throughout the region.
2014 Fort Hood, Texas, mass casualty incident: reviews and perspectives
Strommen, Joshua J.; Waterman, Scott M.; Mitchell, Christopher A.; Grogan, Brian F.
2015-01-01
On April 2, 2014, in Fort Hood, Texas, an active shooter incident occurred where four active duty soldiers were tragically killed. Active shooter incidents are becoming alarmingly more frequent over the last decade in the USA. The authors provide a detailed account of the events that occurred within the hospital and an evaluation of the triage decisions made on that day. A detailed review of mass casualty preparedness and the general approach to triage processes are also described.
Scalable patients tracking framework for mass casualty incidents.
Yu, Xunyi; Ganz, Aura
2011-01-01
We introduce a system that tracks patients in a Mass Casualty Incident (MCI) using active RFID triage tags and mobile anchor points (DM-tracks) carried by the paramedics. The system does not involve any fixed deployment of the localization devices while maintaining a low cost triage tag. The localization accuracy is comparable to GPS systems without incurring the cost of providing a GPS based device to every patient in the disaster scene.
Powered Paraglider Longitudinal Dynamic Modeling and Experimentation
Gibson, Colin P.
Paragliders and similar controllable decelerators provide the benefits of a compact packable parachute with the improved glide performance and steering of a conventional wing, making them ideally suited for precise high offset payload recovery and airdrop missions. This advantage over uncontrollable conventional parachutes sparked interest from Oklahoma State University for implementation into its Atmospheric and Space Threshold Research Oklahoma (ASTRO) program, where payloads often descend into wooded areas. However, due to complications while building a powered paraglider to evaluate the concept, more research into its design parameters was deemed necessary. Focus shifted to an investigation of the effects of these parameters on the flight behavior of a powered system. A longitudinal dynamic model, based on Lagrange's equation for adaptability when adding free-hanging masses, was developed to evaluate trim conditions and analyze system response. With the simulation, the effects of rigging angle, fuselage weight, center of gravity (cg), and apparent mass were calculated through step thrust input cases. Test flights evaluated the behavior of the paraglider, and the design was revised based on observations and analysis. Rigging angle sets the power-off glide slope as well as thrust capacity and input response damping. At more negative angles the glide slope is steeper, can handle more thrust, and damps quicker at a lower frequency. The fuselage weight, or loading, affects thrust capacity and power-off sink rate, with heavier gliders capable of larger thrust inputs but faster descent speed; however, the glide slope remains unchanged. As the cg position is place forward of the attachment point the incidence angle and thrust line will rotate downward, while the opposite occurs moving aft. For the test vehicle, a slightly forward position allowed for the greatest thrust input, and far forward reduced performance for equivalent thrust compared to far aft. Three test
Model based control of dynamic atomic force microscope
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Chibum; Salapaka, Srinivasa M.
2015-01-01
A model-based robust control approach is proposed that significantly improves imaging bandwidth for the dynamic mode atomic force microscopy. A model for cantilever oscillation amplitude and phase dynamics is derived and used for the control design. In particular, the control design is based on a linearized model and robust H ∞ control theory. This design yields a significant improvement when compared to the conventional proportional-integral designs and verified by experiments
Model based control of dynamic atomic force microscope.
Lee, Chibum; Salapaka, Srinivasa M
2015-04-01
A model-based robust control approach is proposed that significantly improves imaging bandwidth for the dynamic mode atomic force microscopy. A model for cantilever oscillation amplitude and phase dynamics is derived and used for the control design. In particular, the control design is based on a linearized model and robust H(∞) control theory. This design yields a significant improvement when compared to the conventional proportional-integral designs and verified by experiments.
Complex Price Dynamics in the Modified Kaldorian Model
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Kodera, Jan; Van Tran, Q.; Vošvrda, Miloslav
2013-01-01
Roč. 22, č. 3 (2013), s. 358-384 ISSN 1210-0455 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Priice dynamics, * numerical examples * two-equation model * four-equation model * nonlinear time series analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2013 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kodera-model of price dynamics and chaos.pdf
VERIFICATION OF GEAR DYNAMIC MODEL IN DIFFERENT OPERATING CONDITIONS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Grzegorz PERUŃ
2014-09-01
Full Text Available The article presents the results of verification of the drive system dynamic model with gear. Tests were carried out on the real object in different operating conditions. For the same assumed conditions were also carried out simulation studies. Comparison of the results obtained from those two series of tests helped determine the suitability of the model and verify the possibility of replacing experimental research by simulations with use of dynamic model.
On the connection of Taylor models and dislocation dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Raabe, D.
1994-01-01
An approach for the connection of Taylor-type models and dislocation dynamics is suggested. The applied Taylor model takes into account grain interactions, leading to only partial local strain relaxation. For two orientations the predicted active slip systems are hereafter subject to the simulation of three-dimensional dislocation dynamics which, however, takes place on a much smaller strain scale when compared to Taylor modelling. (au) (19 refs.)
Dynamic modeling of ultrafiltration membranes for whey separation processes
Saltık, M.B.; Özkan, Leyla; Jacobs, Marc; Padt, van der Albert
2017-01-01
In this paper, we present a control relevant rigorous dynamic model for an ultrafiltration membrane unit in a whey separation process. The model consists of a set of differential algebraic equations and is developed for online model based applications such as model based control and process
Model and simulation of Krause model in dynamic open network
Zhu, Meixia; Xie, Guangqiang
2017-08-01
The construction of the concept of evolution is an effective way to reveal the formation of group consensus. This study is based on the modeling paradigm of the HK model (Hegsekmann-Krause). This paper analyzes the evolution of multi - agent opinion in dynamic open networks with member mobility. The results of the simulation show that when the number of agents is constant, the interval distribution of the initial distribution will affect the number of the final view, The greater the distribution of opinions, the more the number of views formed eventually; The trust threshold has a decisive effect on the number of views, and there is a negative correlation between the trust threshold and the number of opinions clusters. The higher the connectivity of the initial activity group, the more easily the subjective opinion in the evolution of opinion to achieve rapid convergence. The more open the network is more conducive to the unity of view, increase and reduce the number of agents will not affect the consistency of the group effect, but not conducive to stability.
Investigation of work zone crash casualty patterns using association rules.
Weng, Jinxian; Zhu, Jia-Zheng; Yan, Xuedong; Liu, Zhiyuan
2016-07-01
Investigation of the casualty crash characteristics and contributory factors is one of the high-priority issues in traffic safety analysis. In this paper, we propose a method based on association rules to analyze the characteristics and contributory factors of work zone crash casualties. A case study is conducted using the Michigan M-94/I-94/I-94BL/I-94BR work zone crash data from 2004 to 2008. The obtained association rules are divided into two parts including rules with high-lift, and rules with high-support for the further analysis. The results show that almost all the high-lift rules contain either environmental or occupant characteristics. The majority of association rules are centered on specific characteristics, such as drinking driving, the highway with more than 4 lanes, speed-limit over 40mph and not use of traffic control devices. It should be pointed out that some stronger associated rules were found in the high-support part. With the network visualization, the association rule method can provide more understandable results for investigating the patterns of work zone crash casualties. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Types of radiation mass casualties and their management.
Jaworska, Alicja
2009-01-01
Management of radiation mass casualty exposure that may occur as a result of nuclear or radiation accident will depend on the type of accident, and of the knowledge about the actual radiation exposure situation for those who might be involved. Management of the public after an accident in a nuclear or radiation installation will follow existing specific emergency plans, and will take advantage of existing radiation monitoring systems. In other radiation mass casualty exposures, whenever accidental or malevolent use of radiation, there will be a requirement to employ screening programs for indentifying and sorting out exposed people (radiological triage), who will need medical treatment and/or other assistance like decontamination and individual dose assessment. In the later stage after the accident the monitoring for dose assessment purposes for those who will need medical or public health assistance will be required. Demand for dose assessment for large groups of individuals may create the need for international assistance. Prompt and credible public information is vital in all radiation emergencies, and it would be even more important in situations when radiation mass casualties result from exposures to nuclear or radiological material out of regulatory control. In such situations unpredictability of the event creates increase in the risk perception and public communication activities of the authorities will be the key element to prevent unnecessary fear and panic, and the measure to reassure the populace.
Civilian casualties of Iraqi ballistic missile attack to
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Khaji Ali
2012-06-01
Full Text Available 【Abstract】Objective: To determine the pattern of causalities of Iraqi ballistic missile attacks on Tehran, the capital of Iran, during Iraq-Iran war. Methods: Data were extracted from the Army Staff Headquarters based on daily reports of Iranian army units during the war. Results: During 52 days, Tehran was stroked by 118 Al-Hussein missiles (a modified version of Scud missile. Eighty-six missiles landed in populated areas. During Iraqi missile attacks, 422 civilians died and 1 579 injured (4.9 deaths and 18.3 injuries per missile. During 52 days, 8.1 of the civilians died and 30.4 injured daily. Of the cases that died, 101 persons (24% were excluded due to the lack of information. Among the remainders, 179 (55.8% were male and 142 (44.2% were female. The mean age of the victims was 25.3 years±19.9 years. Our results show that the high accuracy of modified Scud missiles landed in crowded ar-eas is the major cause of high mortality in Tehran. The pres-ence of suitable warning system and shelters could reduce civilian casualties. Conclusion: The awareness and readiness of civilian defense forces, rescue services and all medical facilities for dealing with mass casualties caused by ballistic missile at-tacks are necessary. Key words: Mortality; War; Mass casualty incidents; Wounds and injuries
Power quality analysis of STATCOM using dynamic phasor modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hannan, M.A.; Mohamed, A.; Hussain, A.; AI-Dabbagh, Majid [Department of Electrical, Electronic and Systems Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, National University of Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor (Malaysia)
2009-06-15
Modeling of synchronous static compensator (STATCOM) of a power system based on the dynamic phasor model to investigate the performance of STATCOM for power quality analysis is described. It is compared with electromagnetic transient program (EMTP) like simulation. The dynamic phasor model and electromagnetic transient (EMT) model of the STATCOM including the power system are implemented in Matlab/Simulink toolbox and PSCAD/EMTDC, respectively. STATCOM dynamic phasor model including switching functions and their control system are presented. A satisfactory solution for power quality problems on typical distribution network is analyzed using the dynamic phasor model and EMTP like PSCAD/EMTDC simulation techniques. The simulation results revealed that the dynamic phasor model of STATCOM is in excellent agreement with the detailed time-domain EMT model of PSCAD/EMTDC simulation. The dynamic behavior of STATCOM using phasor model can be applied for analyzing power quality issues. It is found faster in speed and higher accuracy can be obtained and correlates well with PSCAD/EMTDC simulation results. (author)
Induction generator models in dynamic simulation tools
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Hans; Akhmatov, Vladislav
1999-01-01
For AC network with large amount of induction generators (windmills) the paper demonstrates a significant discrepancy in the simulated voltage recovery after fault in weak networks when comparing dynamic and transient stability descriptions and the reasons of discrepancies are explained. It is fo......For AC network with large amount of induction generators (windmills) the paper demonstrates a significant discrepancy in the simulated voltage recovery after fault in weak networks when comparing dynamic and transient stability descriptions and the reasons of discrepancies are explained...... to a tunny generator through a shaft....
Dynamics of inhomogeneous populations and global demography models
Karev, Georgy P.
2005-01-01
The dynamic theory of inhomogeneous populations developed during the last decade predicts several essential new dynamic regimes applicable even to the well-known, simple population models. We show that, in an inhomogeneous population with a distributed reproduction coefficient, the entire initial distribution of the coefficient should be used to investigate real population dynamics. In the general case, neither the average rate of growth nor the variance or any finite number of moments of the...
Fluid dynamics of moving fish in a two-dimensional multiparticle collision dynamics model
Reid, Daniel A. P.; Hildenbrandt, H.; Hemelrijk, C. K.; Padding, J.T.
2012-01-01
The fluid dynamics of animal locomotion, such as that of an undulating fish, are of great interest to both biologists and engineers. However, experimentally studying these fluid dynamics is difficult and time consuming. Model studies can be of great help because of their simpler and more detailed
van Geert, P
Dynamic systems theory conceives of development as a self-organizational process. Both complexity and order emerge as a product of elementary principles of interaction between components involved in the developmental process. This article presents a dynamic systems model based on a general dual
Chiral Dynamics and Dubna-Mainz Dynamical Model for Pion Photoproduction Reaction
Yang, Shin Nan
We demonstrate that the Dubna-Mainz-Taipei (DMT) meson-exchange dynamical model, which starts from an effective chiral Lagrangian, for pion photoproduction provides an excellent and economic framework to describe both the π0 threshold production and the Δ deformation, two features dictated by chiral dynamics.
Chiral Dynamics and Dubna-Mainz-Taipei Dynamical Model for Pion-Photoproduction Reaction
Yang, Shin Nan
2010-01-01
We demonstrate that the Dubna-Mainz-Taipei (DMT) meson-exchange dynamical model, which starts from an effective chiral Lagrangian, for pion photoproduction provides an excellent and economic framework to describe both the pi^0 threshold production and the Delta deformation, two features dictated by chiral dynamics.
Dynamic modeling of the advanced neutron source reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
March-Leuba, J.; Ibn-Khayat, M.
1990-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to provide a summary description and some applications of a computer model that has been developed to simulate the dynamic behavior of the advanced neutron source (ANS) reactor. The ANS dynamic model is coded in the advanced continuous simulation language (ACSL), and it represents the reactor core, vessel, primary cooling system, and secondary cooling systems. The use of a simple dynamic model in the early stages of the reactor design has proven very valuable not only in the development of the control and plant protection system but also of components such as pumps and heat exchangers that are usually sized based on steady-state calculations
Modelling and Analysis of Dynamic Reconfiguration in BP-Calculus
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Abouzaid, Faisal; Mullins, John; Mazzara, Manuel
2012-01-01
The BP-calculus is a formalism based on the π-calculus and encoded in WS-BPEL. The BP-calculus is intended to specificaly model and verify Service Oriented Applications. One important feature of SOA is the ability to compose services that may dynamically evolve along runtime. Dynamic...... reconfiguration of services increases their availability, but puts accordingly, heavy demands for validation, verification, and evaluation. In this paper we formally model and analyze dynamic reconfigurations and their requirements in BP-calculus and show how reconfigurable components can be modeled using...
Creation and Reliability Analysis of Vehicle Dynamic Weighing Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhi-Ling XU
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In this paper, it is modeled by using ADAMS to portable axle load meter of dynamic weighing system, controlling a single variable simulation weighing process, getting the simulation weighing data under the different speed and weight; simultaneously using portable weighing system with the same parameters to achieve the actual measurement, comparative analysis the simulation results under the same conditions, at 30 km/h or less, the simulation value and the measured value do not differ by more than 5 %, it is not only to verify the reliability of dynamic weighing model, but also to create possible for improving algorithm study efficiency by using dynamic weighing model simulation.
Fractional-order in a macroeconomic dynamic model
David, S. A.; Quintino, D. D.; Soliani, J.
2013-10-01
In this paper, we applied the Riemann-Liouville approach in order to realize the numerical simulations to a set of equations that represent a fractional-order macroeconomic dynamic model. It is a generalization of a dynamic model recently reported in the literature. The aforementioned equations have been simulated for several cases involving integer and non-integer order analysis, with some different values to fractional order. The time histories and the phase diagrams have been plotted to visualize the effect of fractional order approach. The new contribution of this work arises from the fact that the macroeconomic dynamic model proposed here involves the public sector deficit equation, which renders the model more realistic and complete when compared with the ones encountered in the literature. The results reveal that the fractional-order macroeconomic model can exhibit a real reasonable behavior to macroeconomics systems and might offer greater insights towards the understanding of these complex dynamic systems.
Mathematical modeling of microtubule dynamics: insights into physiology and disease.
Buxton, Gavin A; Siedlak, Sandra L; Perry, George; Smith, Mark A
2010-12-01
Computer models of microtubule dynamics have provided the basis for many of the theories on the cellular mechanics of the microtubules, their polymerization kinetics, and the diffusion of tubulin and tau. In the three-dimensional model presented here, we include the effects of tau concentration and the hydrolysis of GTP-tubulin to GDP-tubulin and observe the emergence of microtubule dynamic instability. This integrated approach simulates the essential physics of microtubule dynamics in a cellular environment. The model captures the structure of the microtubules as they undergo steady state dynamic instabilities in this simplified geometry, and also yields the average number, length, and cap size of the microtubules. The model achieves realistic geometries and simulates cellular structures found in degenerating neurons in disease states such as Alzheimer disease. Further, this model can be used to simulate microtubule changes following the addition of antimitotic drugs which have recently attracted attention as chemotherapeutic agents. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Generic solar photovoltaic system dynamic simulation model specification
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ellis, Abraham [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Behnke, Michael Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Elliott, Ryan Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2013-10-01
This document is intended to serve as a specification for generic solar photovoltaic (PV) system positive-sequence dynamic models to be implemented by software developers and approved by the WECC MVWG for use in bulk system dynamic simulations in accordance with NERC MOD standards. Two specific dynamic models are included in the scope of this document. The first, a Central Station PV System model, is intended to capture the most important dynamic characteristics of large scale (> 10 MW) PV systems with a central Point of Interconnection (POI) at the transmission level. The second, a Distributed PV System model, is intended to represent an aggregation of smaller, distribution-connected systems that comprise a portion of a composite load that might be modeled at a transmission load bus.
The Quadrotor Dynamic Modeling and Indoor Target Tracking Control Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dewei Zhang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available A reliable nonlinear dynamic model of the quadrotor is presented. The nonlinear dynamic model includes actuator dynamic and aerodynamic effect. Since the rotors run near a constant hovering speed, the dynamic model is simplified at hovering operating point. Based on the simplified nonlinear dynamic model, the PID controllers with feedback linearization and feedforward control are proposed using the backstepping method. These controllers are used to control both the attitude and position of the quadrotor. A fully custom quadrotor is developed to verify the correctness of the dynamic model and control algorithms. The attitude of the quadrotor is measured by inertia measurement unit (IMU. The position of the quadrotor in a GPS-denied environment, especially indoor environment, is estimated from the downward camera and ultrasonic sensor measurements. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed dynamic model and control algorithms are demonstrated by experimental results. It is shown that the vehicle achieves robust vision-based hovering and moving target tracking control.
Dynamic pricing models for electronic business
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
due to the wiring of the economy through the Internet, corporate networks, and wireless networks. Buyers are now able to quickly and easily compare products and prices, putting them in a better bargaining position. .... The airline industry is a common example of deployment of dynamic pricing strategies. The kind of pricing ...
Adaptation dynamics of the quasispecies model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
2015-11-27
Nov 27, 2015 ... We study the adaptation dynamics of an initially maladapted population evolving via the elementary processes of mutation and selection. The evolution occurs on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multi-dimensional genotypic space and have many local peaks separated by low fitness ...
Stochastic dynamic programming model for optimal resource ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
M Bhuvaneswari
2018-04-11
Apr 11, 2018 ... containers, doctors, nurses, cash and stocks. Similarly, the uncertainty may have different characterizations in these applications. An approximate stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) [3] allows nodes with a number of possible actions with clear strategies for devising an effective decision on optimal ...
Molecular dynamics modeling of structural battery components
Verners, O.; Van Duin, A.C.T.; Wagemaker, M.; Simone, A.
2015-01-01
A crosslinked polymer based solid electrolyte prototype material –poly(propylene glycol) diacrylate– is studied using the reactive molecular dynamics force field ReaxFF. The focus of the study is the evaluation of the effects of equilibration and added plasticizer (ethylene carbonate) or anion
Dynamic pricing models for electronic business
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22
first motivate dynamic pricing and present underlying concepts, with several exam- ples, and explain .... Dell quotes different prices to different market segments for the same product, enabling the company to increase the profitability [31]. Dell and Cisco generate almost 50 % of their sales through the Internet. Currently ...
Adaptation dynamics of the quasispecies model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Abstract. We study the adaptation dynamics of an initially maladapted population evolving via the elementary processes of mutation and selection. The evolution occurs on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multi-dimensional genotypic space and have many local peaks separated by low fitness valleys.
Adaptation dynamics of the quasispecies model
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
We study the adaptation dynamics of an initially maladapted population evolving via the elementary processes of mutation and selection. The evolution occurs on rugged fitness landscapes which are defined on the multi-dimensional genotypic space and have many local peaks separated by low fitness valleys. We mainly ...
Model tests on dynamic performance of RC shear walls
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagashima, Toshio; Shibata, Akenori; Inoue, Norio; Muroi, Kazuo.
1991-01-01
For the inelastic dynamic response analysis of a reactor building subjected to earthquakes, it is essentially important to properly evaluate its restoring force characteristics under dynamic loading condition and its damping performance. Reinforced concrete shear walls are the main structural members of a reactor building, and dominate its seismic behavior. In order to obtain the basic information on the dynamic restoring force characteristics and damping performance of shear walls, the dynamic test using a large shaking table, static displacement control test and the pseudo-dynamic test on the models of a shear wall were conducted. In the dynamic test, four specimens were tested on a large shaking table. In the static test, four specimens were tested, and in the pseudo-dynamic test, three specimens were tested. These tests are outlined. The results of these tests were compared, placing emphasis on the restoring force characteristics and damping performance of the RC wall models. The strength was higher in the dynamic test models than in the static test models mainly due to the effect of loading rate. (K.I.)
Modelling flow dynamics in water distribution networks using ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
One such approach is the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) technique. The advantage of ANNs is that they are robust and can be used to model complex linear and non-linear systems without making implicit assumptions. ANNs can be trained to forecast flow dynamics in a water distribution network. Such flow dynamics ...
Biomolecular Modeling in a Process Dynamics and Control Course
Gray, Jeffrey J.
2006-01-01
I present modifications to the traditional course entitled, "Process dynamics and control," which I renamed "Modeling, dynamics, and control of chemical and biological processes." Additions include the central dogma of biology, pharmacokinetic systems, population balances, control of gene transcription, and large-scale…
Inference in High-dimensional Dynamic Panel Data Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kock, Anders Bredahl; Tang, Haihan
We establish oracle inequalities for a version of the Lasso in high-dimensional fixed effects dynamic panel data models. The inequalities are valid for the coefficients of the dynamic and exogenous regressors. Separate oracle inequalities are derived for the fixed effects. Next, we show how one can...
A dynamic stall model for airfoils with deformable trailing edges
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Peter Bjørn; Gaunaa, Mac; Bak, Dan Christian
2007-01-01
on an airfoil section undergoing arbitrary motion in heave, lead-lag, pitch, Trailing Edge (TE) flapping. In the linear region, the model reduces to the inviscid model of Gaunaa [4], which includes the aerodynamic effect of a thin airfoil with a deformable camberline in inviscid flow. Therefore, the proposed......The present work contains an extension of the Beddoes-Leishman (B-L) type dynamic stall model, as described by Hansen et al. [7]. In this work a Deformable Trailing Edge Geometry (DTEG) has been added to the dynamic stall model. The model predicts the unsteady aerodynamic forces and moments...
Alpert, Evan Avraham; Lipsky, Ari M; Elie, Navid Daniel; Jaffe, Eli
2015-01-01
To describe the contributions of on-call, volunteer first responders to mass-casualty terrorist attacks in Israel during the Second Intifada. Descriptive study evaluating data obtained from postevent debriefings after 15 terrorist attacks in Israel between 2001 and 2004. An average of 7.9 deaths (median 7.0, interquartile range [IQR] 2.5-12.5) and 53.8 injuries (median 50.0, IQR 34.0-62.0) occurred in each of these attacks. The average number of volunteers responding to each event was 50.3 (median 43.0, IQR 27.5-55.5). The volunteers were involved in extricating victims from imminent danger, and performing emergent tasks such as bag-valve ventilation, tourniquet application, and intravenous line insertion. They were also integral to the rapid evacuation of casualties from the scene. On-call, volunteer first responders are an integral part of Israel's emergency medical response to mass-casualty terrorist attacks. This system may be used as a model for the development of similar services worldwide.
Handbook of electrical power system dynamics modeling, stability, and control
Eremia, Mircea
2013-01-01
Complete guidance for understanding electrical power system dynamics and blackouts This handbook offers a comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of power system dynamics. Addressing the full range of topics, from the fundamentals to the latest technologies in modeling, stability, and control, Handbook of Electrical Power System Dynamics provides engineers with hands-on guidance for understanding the phenomena leading to blackouts so they can design the most appropriate solutions for a cost-effective and reliable operation. Focusing on system dynamics, the book details
Dynamic heat capacity of the east model and of a bead-spring polymer model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
McCoy, John Dwane (New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM); Brown, Jonathan R. (New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM); Adolf, Douglas Brian
2011-10-01
In this report we have presented a brief review of the glass transition and one means of characterizing glassy materials: linear and nonlinear thermodynamic oscillatory experiments to extract the dynamic heat capacity. We have applied these methods to the east model (a variation of the Ising model for glass forming systems) and a simple polymeric system via molecular dynamics simulation, and our results match what is seen in experiment. For the east model, since the dynamics are so simple, a mathematical model is developed that matches the simulated dynamics. For the polymeric system, since the system is a simulation, we can instantaneously 'quench' the system - removing all vibrational energy - to separate the vibrational dynamics from dynamics associated with particle rearrangements. This shows that the long-time glassy dynamics are due entirely to the particle rearrangements, i.e. basin jumping on the potential energy landscape. Finally, we present an extension of linear dynamic heat capacity to the nonlinear regime.
Quantum dynamics modeled by interacting trajectories
Cruz-Rodríguez, L.; Uranga-Piña, L.; Martínez-Mesa, A.; Meier, C.
2018-03-01
We present quantum dynamical simulations based on the propagation of interacting trajectories where the effect of the quantum potential is mimicked by effective pseudo-particle interactions. The method is applied to several quantum systems, both for bound and scattering problems. For the bound systems, the quantum ground state density and zero point energy are shown to be perfectly obtained by the interacting trajectories. In the case of time-dependent quantum scattering, the Eckart barrier and uphill ramp are considered, with transmission coefficients in very good agreement with standard quantum calculations. Finally, we show that via wave function synthesis along the trajectories, correlation functions and energy spectra can be obtained based on the dynamics of interacting trajectories.
Implementing RFID technology in a novel triage system during a simulated mass casualty situation.
Jokela, Jorma; Simons, Tomi; Kuronen, Pentti; Tammela, Juha; Jalasvirta, Pertti; Nurmi, Jouni; Harkke, Ville; Castrén, Maaret
2008-01-01
The purpose of this study is to determine the applicability of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology and commercial cellular networks to provide an online triage system for handling mass casualty situations. This was tested by a using a pilot system for a simulated mass casualty situation during a military field exercise. The system proved to be usable. Compared to the currently used system, it also dramatically improves the general view of mass casualty situations and enhances medical emergency readiness in a military medical setting. The system can also be adapted without any difficulties by the civilian sector for the management of mass casualty disasters.
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Chung, Kevin K; Juncos, , Luis A; Wolf, Steven E; Mann, Elizabeth E; Renz, Evan M; White, Christopher E; Barillo, David J; Clark, Richard A; Jones, John A; Edgecombe, Harcourt P
2007-01-01
.... We wondered whether early use of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) changes outcomes in severely burned military casualties with predetermined criteria for acute kidney injury. Methods...
Dynamical generation of interaction in an exactly solvable model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Avdeev, L.V.; Chizhov, M.V.
1984-01-01
The dynamical generation of interaction in the chiral-invariant Gross-Neveu model leads to an asymptotically free charge behaviour and a correlation between coupling constants. The known exact solution possesses similar properties
A dynamic model of renal blood flow autoregulation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Holstein-Rathlou, N H; Marsh, D J
1994-01-01
To test whether a mathematical model combining dynamic models of the tubuloglomerular feedback (TGF) mechanism and the myogenic mechanism was sufficient to explain dynamic autoregulation of renal blood flow, we compared model simulations with experimental data. To assess the dynamic characteristics...... of renal autoregulation, a broad band perturbation of the arterial pressure was employed in both the simulations and the experiments. Renal blood flow and tubular pressure were used as response variables in the comparison. To better approximate the situation in vivo where a large number of individual...... data, which shows a unimodal curve for the admittance phase. The ability of the model to reproduce the experimental data supports the hypothesis that dynamic autoregulation of renal blood flow is due to the combined action of TGF and the myogenic response....
AMPO Travel Modeling Working Group Meeting on Dynamic Traffic Assignment
2016-03-01
On December 17-18, 2015, the Association of Metropolitan Planning Organizations (AMPO) convened a travel modeling working group meeting for the purpose of discussing Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA). Participants discussed the uses of DTA, challenges...
Dynamical Model of Rocket Propellant Loading with Liquid Hydrogen
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A dynamical model describing the multi-stage process of rocket propellant loading has been developed. It accounts for both the nominal and faulty regimes of...
Cognitive Models for Learning to Control Dynamic Systems
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Eberhart, Russ; Hu, Xiaohui; Chen, Yaobin
2008-01-01
Report developed under STTR contract for topic "Cognitive models for learning to control dynamic systems" demonstrated a swarm intelligence learning algorithm and its application in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission planning...
Dynamic model of a 3-DOF redundantly actuated parallel manipulator
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tiemin Li
2016-09-01
Full Text Available We investigate the dynamic mode of a 3-degree of freedom (DOF redundantly actuated parallel manipulator by taking the flexible deformation of the limbs into account. The dynamic model is derived using Newton–Euler formulation. Since the number of equations derived from the force and moment equilibrium of the parallel manipulator components is less than the number of unknown variables, the flexible deformation of the limbs is treated as an inequality constraint to find the solution of the dynamic model. The errors of moving platform caused by the flexible deformation of limbs are discussed, and a control strategy is given. To validate the model, the dynamic model is integrated with the control system and compared with the traditional method to minimize the normal driving forces.
Dynamic Interbank Network Analysis Using Latent Space Models
Linardi, F.; Diks, C.; van der Leij, M.; Lazier, I.
2017-01-01
Longitudinal network data are increasingly available, allowing researchers to model how networks evolve over time and to make inference on their dependence structure. In this paper, a dynamic latent space approach is used to model directed networks of monthly interbank exposures. In this model, each
Analysis of a Mathematical Model to Investigate the Dynamics of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, we formulated a compartmental model to investigate the dynamics of dengue fever in a population with some measure of disease control. We qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the model and found that the model has a disease free equilibrium (DFE), an endemic equilibrium point and undergoes the ...
A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development
Coté, Carol A.
2015-01-01
This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…
A stochastic dynamic programming model for stream water quality ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
This paper deals with development of a seasonal fraction-removal policy model for waste load allocation in streams addressing uncertainties due to randomness and fuzziness. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model is developed to arrive at the steady-state seasonal fraction-removal policy. A fuzzy decision model ...
Optimum workforce-size model using dynamic programming approach
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper presents an optimum workforce-size model which determines the minimum number of excess workers (overstaffing) as well as the minimum total recruitment cost during a specified planning horizon. The model is an extension of other existing dynamic programming models for manpower planning in the sense ...
PM Synchronous Motor Dynamic Modeling with Genetic Algorithm ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Adel
This paper proposes dynamic modeling simulation for ac Surface Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor (SPMSM) with the aid of MATLAB – Simulink environment. The proposed model would be used in many applications such as automotive, mechatronics, green energy applications, and machine drives. The modeling ...
Particle hopping vs. fluid-dynamical models for traffic flow
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nagel, K.
1995-12-31
Although particle hopping models have been introduced into traffic science in the 19509, their systematic use has only started recently. Two reasons for this are, that they are advantageous on modem computers, and that recent theoretical developments allow analytical understanding of their properties and therefore more confidence for their use. In principle, particle hopping models fit between microscopic models for driving and fluiddynamical models for traffic flow. In this sense, they also help closing the conceptual gap between these two. This paper shows connections between particle hopping models and traffic flow theory. It shows that the hydrodynamical limits of certain particle hopping models correspond to the Lighthill-Whitham theory for traffic flow, and that only slightly more complex particle hopping models produce already the correct traffic jam dynamics, consistent with recent fluid-dynamical models for traffic flow. By doing so, this paper establishes that, on the macroscopic level, particle hopping models are at least as good as fluid-dynamical models. Yet, particle hopping models have at least two advantages over fluid-dynamical models: they straightforwardly allow microscopic simulations, and they include stochasticity.
optimum workforce-size model using dynamic programming approach
African Journals Online (AJOL)
DJFLEX
This paper presents an optimum workforce-size model which determines the minimum number of excess workers (overstaffing) as well as the minimum total recruitment cost during a specified planning horizon. The model is an extension of other existing dynamic programming models for manpower planning in the sense ...
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.
The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...
Analysis of a Mathematical Model to Investigate the Dynamics of ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
ADOWIE PERE
ABSTRACT: In this paper, we formulated a compartmental model to investigate the dynamics of dengue fever in a population with some measure of disease control. We qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the model and found that the model has a disease free equilibrium. (DFE), an endemic equilibrium point and ...
A Physically-Motivated Deformable Model Based on Fluid Dynamics
Jalba, Andrei C.; Roerdink, Jos B.T.M.; Leonardis, A; Bischof, H; Pinz, A
2006-01-01
A novel deformable model for image segmentation and shape recovery is presented. The model is inspired by fluid dynamics and is based on a flooding simulation similar to the watershed paradigm. Unlike most watershed methods, our model has a continuous formulation, being described by two partial
Bayesian interference in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models: three essays.
Ciccarelli, Matteo
2001-01-01
The task of this work is to discuss issues conceming the specification, estimation, inference and forecasting in multivariate dynamic heterogeneous panel data models from a Bayesian perspective. Three essays linked by a few conraion ideas compose the work. Multivariate dynamic models (mainly VARs) based on micro or macro panel data sets have become increasingly popular in macroeconomics, especially to study the transmission of real and monetary shocks across economies. This great use...
Modelling dynamic ecosystems : venturing beyond boundaries with the Ecopath approach
Coll, Marta; Akoglu, E.; Arreguin-Sanchez, F.; Fulton, E. A.; Gascuel, D.; Heymans, J. J.; Libralato, S.; Mackinson, S.; Palomera, I.; Piroddi, C.; Shannon, L. J.; Steenbeek, J.; Villasante, S.; Christensen, V.
2015-01-01
Thirty years of progress using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach in different fields such as ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate change, emergent ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem-based management, and marine conservation and spatial planning were showcased November 2014 at the conference "Ecopath 30 years-modelling dynamic ecosystems: beyond boundaries with EwE". Exciting new developments include temporal-spatial and end-to-end modelling, as well as novel applications to environmental ...
Dynamic Trust Models between Users over Social Networks
2016-03-30
the- art hTrust and its variants for solving the trust -link prediction problem. In addition to the above main research results, we developed a...AFRL-AFOSR-JP-TR-2016-0039 Dynamic Trust Models between Users over Social Networks Kazumi Saito University Of Shizuoka Final Report 04/05/2016...2013 to 30-03-2016 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE (134042) Dynamic Trust Models between Users over Social Networks 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA2386-13-1
A Dynamic Growth Model for Flows of Foreign Direct Investment
Yi-Hui Chiang; Yiming Li; Chih-Young Hung
2007-01-01
In this work, we for the first time study the dynamic flows of the foreign direct investment (FDI) with a dynamic growth theory. We define the FDI flow as a process which transmits throughout a given social system by way of diverse communication channels. In model formulation, seven assumptions are thus proposed and the foreign capital policy of the host country is considered as an external influence; in addition, the investment policy of the investing country is modeled as an internal influe...
Discretization model for nonlinear dynamic analysis of three dimensional structures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hayashi, Y.
1982-12-01
A discretization model for nonlinear dynamic analysis of three dimensional structures is presented. The discretization is achieved through a three dimensional spring-mass system and the dynamic response obtained by direct integration of the equations of motion using central diferences. First the viability of the model is verified through the analysis of homogeneous linear structures and then its performance in the analysis of structures subjected to impulsive or impact loads, taking into account both geometrical and physical nonlinearities is evaluated. (Author) [pt
Dynamic State Space Partitioning for External Memory Model Checking
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Evangelista, Sami; Kristensen, Lars Michael
2009-01-01
We describe a dynamic partitioning scheme usable by model checking techniques that divide the state space into partitions, such as most external memory and distributed model checking algorithms. The goal of the scheme is to reduce the number of transitions that link states belonging to different...... partitions, and thereby limit the amount of disk access and network communication. We report on several experiments made with our verification platform ASAP that implements the dynamic partitioning scheme proposed in this paper....
SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL OF MARKETING IN HOTEL COMPANY
Milić Beran, Ivona; Briš Alić, Martina; Antunica, Nikica
2017-01-01
The subject of this paper is qualitative as well as quantitative system dynamics modeling of the marketing department in a hotel company. It is known that there is an increasing number of tourists in Croatia and also that in some regions hotel capacities are insufficient so hotel management has a major challenge to make decisions about increasing hotel capacities. The dynamic model, in this study, is oriented towards building new hotel capacities according to the increased demand. The paper ...
Game equilibrium models I evolution and game dynamics
1991-01-01
There are two main approaches towards the phenotypic analysis of frequency dependent natural selection. First, there is the approach of evolutionary game theory, which was introduced in 1973 by John Maynard Smith and George R. Price. In this theory, the dynamical process of natural selection is not modeled explicitly. Instead, the selective forces acting within a population are represented by a fitness function, which is then analysed according to the concept of an evolutionarily stable strategy or ESS. Later on, the static approach of evolutionary game theory has been complemented by a dynamic stability analysis of the replicator equations. Introduced by Peter D. Taylor and Leo B. Jonker in 1978, these equations specify a class of dynamical systems, which provide a simple dynamic description of a selection process. Usually, the investigation of the replicator dynamics centers around a stability analysis of their stationary solutions. Although evolutionary stability and dynamic stability both intend to charac...
Haberman, Keith
2001-07-01
A micromechanically based constitutive model for the dynamic inelastic behavior of brittle materials, specifically "Dionysus-Pentelicon marble" with distributed microcracking is presented. Dionysus-Pentelicon marble was used in the construction of the Parthenon, in Athens, Greece. The constitutive model is a key component in the ability to simulate this historic explosion and the preceding bombardment form cannon fire that occurred at the Parthenon in 1678. Experiments were performed by Rosakis (1999) that characterized the static and dynamic response of this unique material. A micromechanical constitutive model that was previously successfully used to model the dynamic response of granular brittle materials is presented. The constitutive model was fitted to the experimental data for marble and reproduced the experimentally observed basic uniaxial dynamic behavior quite well. This micromechanical constitutive model was then implemented into the three dimensional nonlinear lagrangain finite element code Dyna3d(1998). Implementing this methodology into the three dimensional nonlinear dynamic finite element code allowed the model to be exercised on several preliminary impact experiments. During future simulations, the model is to be used in conjunction with other numerical techniques to simulate projectile impact and blast loading on the Dionysus-Pentelicon marble and on the structure of the Parthenon.
[A Dynamic Developmental Model of Suicide.] Commentary.
van Geert, Paul
1996-01-01
Compares differential and developmental approaches to clinical and developmental problems such as suicide. Contends that abstract model variables (such as suicidal tendency), whose meaning depends on the model in which they function, need a translation between the variable and empirical data. Maintains that practitioners need a model allowing for…
Slow dynamics in translation-invariant quantum lattice models
Michailidis, Alexios A.; Žnidarič, Marko; Medvedyeva, Mariya; Abanin, Dmitry A.; Prosen, Tomaž; Papić, Z.
2018-03-01
Many-body quantum systems typically display fast dynamics and ballistic spreading of information. Here we address the open problem of how slow the dynamics can be after a generic breaking of integrability by local interactions. We develop a method based on degenerate perturbation theory that reveals slow dynamical regimes and delocalization processes in general translation invariant models, along with accurate estimates of their delocalization time scales. Our results shed light on the fundamental questions of the robustness of quantum integrable systems and the possibility of many-body localization without disorder. As an example, we construct a large class of one-dimensional lattice models where, despite the absence of asymptotic localization, the transient dynamics is exceptionally slow, i.e., the dynamics is indistinguishable from that of many-body localized systems for the system sizes and time scales accessible in experiments and numerical simulations.
Dynamic model of the electrorheological fluid based on measurement results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krivenkov, K; Ulrich, S; Bruns, R
2013-01-01
To develop modern applications for vibration decoupling based on electrorheological fluids with suitable control strategies, an appropriate mathematical model of the ERF is necessary. The devices mostly used have annular-shape electrorheological valves. This requires the use of flow channels to measure the static and dynamic properties of the electrorheological fluids in similar flow conditions. Particularly for the identification of the dynamic behavior of the fluids, the influences of the non-electrorheological properties on the overall system must be taken into account. In this contribution three types of parameters with several nonlinear dependencies for the mapping of the static and dynamic properties of the ERF are considered: electro-rheological, hydraulic and electrical. The mathematical model introduced can precisely demonstrate the static and dynamic behavior of the electrorheological fluid and can be used for the future design of real systems for vibration decoupling or other systems with high dynamic requirements.
Molten carbonate fuel cell: dynamic numerical modeling and experimental investigation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Leal, Elisangela Martins [National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, SP (Brazil). Combustion and Propulsion Lab.], e-mail: elisangela@lcp.inpe.br; Jabbari, Faryar [University of California, Irvine, CA (United States). Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Dept.], e-mail: fjabbari@uci.edu; Brouwer, Jacob [University of California, Irvine, CA (United States). National Fuel Cell Research Center], e-mail: jb@nfcrc.uci.edu
2006-07-01
In this paper, a detailed model incorporating simplified geometric resolution of a molten carbonate fuel cell (MCFC) with detailed and dynamic simulation of all physical, chemical, and electrochemical processes in the stream-wise direction is presented. The model was developed using mass and momentum conservation, electrochemical and chemical reaction mechanisms, and heat transfer. Results from the model are compared with data from an experimental MCFC unit. Furthermore, the model was applied to predict dynamic variations of voltage, current and temperature in an MCFC as it responds to varying load demands. The voltage was evaluated by applying a model developed by Yu h and Selman (1991a, 1991b). The results show that the model can be used to predict voltage and dynamic response characteristics of an MCFC accurately and consistently for a variety of temperatures and pressures. (author)
A stochastic phase-field model determined from molecular dynamics
von Schwerin, Erik
2010-03-17
The dynamics of dendritic growth of a crystal in an undercooled melt is determined by macroscopic diffusion-convection of heat and by capillary forces acting on the nanometer scale of the solid-liquid interface width. Its modelling is useful for instance in processing techniques based on casting. The phase-field method is widely used to study evolution of such microstructural phase transformations on a continuum level; it couples the energy equation to a phenomenological Allen-Cahn/Ginzburg-Landau equation modelling the dynamics of an order parameter determining the solid and liquid phases, including also stochastic fluctuations to obtain the qualitatively correct result of dendritic side branching. This work presents a method to determine stochastic phase-field models from atomistic formulations by coarse-graining molecular dynamics. It has three steps: (1) a precise quantitative atomistic definition of the phase-field variable, based on the local potential energy; (2) derivation of its coarse-grained dynamics model, from microscopic Smoluchowski molecular dynamics (that is Brownian or over damped Langevin dynamics); and (3) numerical computation of the coarse-grained model functions. The coarse-grained model approximates Gibbs ensemble averages of the atomistic phase-field, by choosing coarse-grained drift and diffusion functions that minimize the approximation error of observables in this ensemble average. © EDP Sciences, SMAI, 2010.
Badlands: A parallel basin and landscape dynamics model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
T. Salles
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Over more than three decades, a number of numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs have been developed to study the combined effects of climate, sea-level, tectonics and sediments on Earth surface dynamics. Most of them are written in efficient programming languages, but often cannot be used on parallel architectures. Here, I present a LEM which ports a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution into a distributed memory parallel environment. Badlands (acronym for BAsin anD LANdscape DynamicS is an open-source, flexible, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales.
Modeling Tools Predict Flow in Fluid Dynamics
2010-01-01
"Because rocket engines operate under extreme temperature and pressure, they present a unique challenge to designers who must test and simulate the technology. To this end, CRAFT Tech Inc., of Pipersville, Pennsylvania, won Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Marshall Space Flight Center to develop software to simulate cryogenic fluid flows and related phenomena. CRAFT Tech enhanced its CRUNCH CFD (computational fluid dynamics) software to simulate phenomena in various liquid propulsion components and systems. Today, both government and industry clients in the aerospace, utilities, and petrochemical industries use the software for analyzing existing systems as well as designing new ones."
An Ising model for earthquake dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. Jiménez
2007-01-01
Full Text Available This paper focuses on extracting the information contained in seismic space-time patterns and their dynamics. The Greek catalog recorded from 1901 to 1999 is analyzed. An Ising Cellular Automata representation technique is developed to reconstruct the history of these patterns. We find that there is strong correlation in the region, and that small earthquakes are very important to the stress transfers. Finally, it is demonstrated that this approach is useful for seismic hazard assessment and intermediate-range earthquake forecasting.
Dynamic modeling method for infrared smoke based on enhanced discrete phase model
Zhang, Zhendong; Yang, Chunling; Zhang, Yan; Zhu, Hongbo
2018-03-01
The dynamic modeling of infrared (IR) smoke plays an important role in IR scene simulation systems and its accuracy directly influences the system veracity. However, current IR smoke models cannot provide high veracity, because certain physical characteristics are frequently ignored in fluid simulation; simplifying the discrete phase as a continuous phase and ignoring the IR decoy missile-body spinning. To address this defect, this paper proposes a dynamic modeling method for IR smoke, based on an enhanced discrete phase model (DPM). A mathematical simulation model based on an enhanced DPM is built and a dynamic computing fluid mesh is generated. The dynamic model of IR smoke is then established using an extended equivalent-blackbody-molecule model. Experiments demonstrate that this model realizes a dynamic method for modeling IR smoke with higher veracity.
A dynamic stall model for airfoils with deformable trailing edges
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Peter Bjørn; Gaunaa, Mac; Bak, Christian
2009-01-01
The present work contains an extension of the Beddoes-Leishman-type dynamic stall model. In this work, a deformable trailing-edge flap has been added to the dynamic stall model. The model predicts the unsteady aerodynamic forces and moments on an airfoil section undergoing arbitrary motion in hea...... for the attached flow region and Hansen et al. The model is compared qualitatively to wind tunnel measurements of a Riso/ B1-18 blade section equipped with deformable trailing-edge flap devices in the form of piezoelectric devices. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....
Dynamical models of the human eye and strabismus
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pascolo, P.; Carniel, R.; Grimaz, S.
2009-01-01
In this work, the applicability of a recently published dynamical model of the eye to the case of strabismus is investigated. Although the basic scheme of the original model remains valid, the simulation of the pathological dynamics requires a more suitable coverage of the space of the physiological rotations of the eye. This requisite is reached by developing the original model and by taking into account the contributions of connective tissues that were originally neglected. Possible wider fields of application of the model are then discussed.
A dynamic marketing model with best reply and inertia
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bischi, Gian Italo; Cerboni Baiardi, Lorenzo
2015-01-01
In this paper we consider a nonlinear discrete-time dynamic model proposed by Farris et al. (2005) as a market share attraction model with two firms that decide marketing efforts over time according to best reply strategies with naïve expectations. The model also considers an adaptive adjustment toward best reply, a form of inertia or anchoring attitude, and we investigate the effects of heterogeneities among firms. A rich scenario of local and global bifurcations is obtained even with just two competing firms, and a comparison is proposed with apparently similar duopoly models based on repeated best reply dynamics with naïve expectations and adaptive adjustment.
Polymer behaviour and fracture models in dynamic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bourel B.
2012-08-01
Full Text Available A phenomenological small strain model is developed to capture the elastoviscoplastic behaviour of a 20% filled polypropylene. The constitutive model is based on a multiplicative viscoplastic law. The hydrostatic pressure dependency is considered by using the Drucker Prager yield surface. A phenomenological damage model characterised directly by experimental investigation is used to capture the yield degradation during the deformation in tension. The volume variation due to the cavitation phenomenon is captured by using non-associated viscoplasticity. Some experimental tests at different speed loadings are carried out for the parameters identification of the constitutive model. Furthermore, a fracture model which depends on the stress triaxiality and the strain rate is developed in order to model the complete behaviour of the material studied until fracture.
Amendment to Validated dynamic flow model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Torben
2011-01-01
The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference excit...... turbine in undisturbed flow. For this data set both the multiplicative model and in particular the simple first order transfer function model can predict the down wind wind speed from upwind wind speed and loading.......The purpose of WP2 is to establish flow models relating the wind speed at turbines in a farm. Until now, active control of power reference has not been included in these models as only data with standard operation has been available. In this report the first data series with power reference...
Dynamic magnetic hysteresis behavior and dynamic phase transition in the spin-1 Blume-Capel model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Deviren, Bayram, E-mail: bayram.deviren@nevsehir.edu.tr [Department of Physics, Nevsehir University, 50300 Nevsehir (Turkey); Keskin, Mustafa [Department of Physics, Erciyes University, 38039 Kayseri (Turkey)
2012-03-15
The nature (time variation) of response magnetization m(wt) of the spin-1 Blume-Capel model in the presence of a periodically varying external magnetic field h(wt) is studied by employing the effective-field theory (EFT) with correlations as well as the Glauber-type stochastic dynamics. We determine the time variations of m(wt) and h(wt) for various temperatures, and investigate the dynamic magnetic hysteresis behavior. We also investigate the temperature dependence of the dynamic magnetization, hysteresis loop area and correlation near the transition point in order to characterize the nature (first- or second-order) of the dynamic transitions as well as obtain the dynamic phase transition temperatures. The hysteresis loops are obtained for different reduced temperatures and we find that the areas of the loops are decreasing with the increasing of the reduced temperatures. We also present the dynamic phase diagrams and compare the results of the EFT with the results of the dynamic mean-field approximation. The phase diagrams exhibit many dynamic critical points, such as tricritical ( Bullet ), zero-temperature critical (Z), triple (TP) and multicritical (A) points. According to values of Hamiltonian parameters, besides the paramagnetic (P), ferromagnetic (F) fundamental phases, one coexistence or mixed phase region, (F+P) and the reentrant behavior exist in the system. The results are in good agreement with some experimental and theoretical results. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Kinetic spin-1 Blume-Capel model is studied using the effective-field theory. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We investigated the dynamic magnetic hysteresis behavior. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Dynamic magnetization, hysteresis loop area and correlation are investigated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer System exhibits tricritical, zero-temperature, triple and multicritical points. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present the dynamic phase diagrams and compare the results of the EFT
Discrete modeling considerations in multiphase fluid dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ransom, V.H.; Ramshaw, J.D.
1988-01-01
The modeling of multiphase flows play a fundamental role in light water reactor safety. The main ingredients in our discrete modeling Weltanschauung are the following considerations: (1) Any physical model must be cast into discrete form for a digital computer. (2) The usual approach of formulating models in differential form and then discretizing them is potentially hazardous. It may be preferable to formulate the model in discrete terms from the outset. (3) Computer time and storage constraints limit the resolution that can be employed in practical calculations. These limits effectively define the physical phenomena, length scales, and time scales which cannot be directly represented in the calculation and therefore must be modeled. This information should be injected into the model formulation process at an early stage. (4) Practical resolution limits are generally so coarse that traditional convergence and truncation-error analyses become irrelevant. (5) A discrete model constitutes a reduced description of a physical system, from which fine-scale details are eliminated. This elimination creates a statistical closure problem. Methods from statistical physics may therefore be useful in the formulation of discrete models. In the present paper we elaborate on these themes and illustrate them with simple examples. 48 refs
A better START for low-acuity victims: data-driven refinement of mass casualty triage.
Cross, Keith P; Petry, Michael J; Cicero, Mark X
2015-01-01
Methods currently used to triage patients from mass casualty events have a sparse evidence basis. The objective of this project was to assess gaps of the widely used Simple Triage and Rapid Transport (START) algorithm using a large database when it is used to triage low-acuity patients. Subsequently, we developed and tested evidenced-based improvements to START. Using the National Trauma Database (NTDB), a large set of trauma victims were assigned START triage levels, which were then compared to recorded patient mortality outcomes using area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC). Subjects assigned to the "Minor/Green" level who nevertheless died prior to hospital discharge were considered mistriaged. Recursive partitioning identified factors associated with of these mistriaged patients. These factors were then used to develop candidate START models of improved triage, whose overall performance was then re-evaluated using data from the NTDB. This process of evaluating performance, identifying errors, and further adjusting candidate models was repeated iteratively. The study included 322,162 subjects assigned to "Minor/Green" of which 2,046 died before hospital discharge. Age was the primary predictor of under-triage by START. Candidate models which re-assigned patients from the "Minor/Green" triage level to the "Delayed/Yellow" triage level based on age (either for patients >60 or >75), reduced mortality in the "Minor/Green" group from 0.6% to 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. These candidate START models also showed net improvement in the AUC for predicting mortality overall and in select subgroups. In this research model using trauma registry data, most START under-triage errors occurred in elderly patients. Overall START accuracy was improved by placing elderly but otherwise minimally injured-mass casualty victims into a higher risk triage level. Alternatively, such patients would be candidates for closer monitoring at the scene or expedited transport ahead of other
Volume Dynamics Propulsion System Modeling for Supersonics Vehicle Research
Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Paxson, Daniel E.; Ma, Peter
2010-01-01
Under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program the Supersonics Project is working to overcome the obstacles to supersonic commercial flight. The proposed vehicles are long slim body aircraft with pronounced aero-servo-elastic modes. These modes can potentially couple with propulsion system dynamics; leading to performance challenges such as aircraft ride quality and stability. Other disturbances upstream of the engine generated from atmospheric wind gusts, angle of attack, and yaw can have similar effects. In addition, for optimal propulsion system performance, normal inlet-engine operations are required to be closer to compressor stall and inlet unstart. To study these phenomena an integrated model is needed that includes both airframe structural dynamics as well as the propulsion system dynamics. This paper covers the propulsion system component volume dynamics modeling of a turbojet engine that will be used for an integrated vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic model and for propulsion efficiency studies.
Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation
2016-01-01
This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...
Development of dynamic Bayesian models for web application test management
Azarnova, T. V.; Polukhin, P. V.; Bondarenko, Yu V.; Kashirina, I. L.
2018-03-01
The mathematical apparatus of dynamic Bayesian networks is an effective and technically proven tool that can be used to model complex stochastic dynamic processes. According to the results of the research, mathematical models and methods of dynamic Bayesian networks provide a high coverage of stochastic tasks associated with error testing in multiuser software products operated in a dynamically changing environment. Formalized representation of the discrete test process as a dynamic Bayesian model allows us to organize the logical connection between individual test assets for multiple time slices. This approach gives an opportunity to present testing as a discrete process with set structural components responsible for the generation of test assets. Dynamic Bayesian network-based models allow us to combine in one management area individual units and testing components with different functionalities and a direct influence on each other in the process of comprehensive testing of various groups of computer bugs. The application of the proposed models provides an opportunity to use a consistent approach to formalize test principles and procedures, methods used to treat situational error signs, and methods used to produce analytical conclusions based on test results.
Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity.
Nielsen, Søren F V; Schmidt, Mikkel N; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Mørup, Morten
2018-05-01
In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework on synthetic data, and apply it on two real-world examples: a face recognition EEG experiment and resting-state fMRI. Our results evidence that both EEG and fMRI are better characterized using dynamic modeling approaches than by their static counterparts, but we also demonstrate that one must be cautious when interpreting dFC because parameter settings and modeling assumptions, such as window lengths and emission models, can have a large impact on the estimated states and consequently on the interpretation of the brain dynamics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Integrating microbial diversity in soil carbon dynamic models parameters
Louis, Benjamin; Menasseri-Aubry, Safya; Leterme, Philippe; Maron, Pierre-Alain; Viaud, Valérie
2015-04-01
Faced with the numerous concerns about soil carbon dynamic, a large quantity of carbon dynamic models has been developed during the last century. These models are mainly in the form of deterministic compartment models with carbon fluxes between compartments represented by ordinary differential equations. Nowadays, lots of them consider the microbial biomass as a compartment of the soil organic matter (carbon quantity). But the amount of microbial carbon is rarely used in the differential equations of the models as a limiting factor. Additionally, microbial diversity and community composition are mostly missing, although last advances in soil microbial analytical methods during the two past decades have shown that these characteristics play also a significant role in soil carbon dynamic. As soil microorganisms are essential drivers of soil carbon dynamic, the question about explicitly integrating their role have become a key issue in soil carbon dynamic models development. Some interesting attempts can be found and are dominated by the incorporation of several compartments of different groups of microbial biomass in terms of functional traits and/or biogeochemical compositions to integrate microbial diversity. However, these models are basically heuristic models in the sense that they are used to test hypotheses through simulations. They have rarely been confronted to real data and thus cannot be used to predict realistic situations. The objective of this work was to empirically integrate microbial diversity in a simple model of carbon dynamic through statistical modelling of the model parameters. This work is based on available experimental results coming from a French National Research Agency program called DIMIMOS. Briefly, 13C-labelled wheat residue has been incorporated into soils with different pedological characteristics and land use history. Then, the soils have been incubated during 104 days and labelled and non-labelled CO2 fluxes have been measured at ten
Modelling Dynamic Topologies via Extensions of VDM-RT
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Claus Ballegård
Only a few formal methods include descriptions of the network topology that the modelled system is deployed onto. In VDM Real-Time (VDM-RT) this has been enabled for distributed systems that have a static structure. However, when modelling dynamic systems this fixed topology becomes an issue....... Systems with highly distributed and alternating relationships cannot be expressed correctly in a static model. This document describes how VDM-RT can be extended with new language constructs to enable the description of dynamic reconfiguration of the network topology during the runtime execution...... of a model. The extension is developed on the basis of a case study involving a dynamic system that has a constant changing system topology. With a basis in the case study a model is developed that uses the static version of VDM-RT in order to reveal the limitations of the language. The case study...
Development of a dynamic computational model of social cognitive theory.
Riley, William T; Martin, Cesar A; Rivera, Daniel E; Hekler, Eric B; Adams, Marc A; Buman, Matthew P; Pavel, Misha; King, Abby C
2016-12-01
Social cognitive theory (SCT) is among the most influential theories of behavior change and has been used as the conceptual basis of health behavior interventions for smoking cessation, weight management, and other health behaviors. SCT and other behavior theories were developed primarily to explain differences between individuals, but explanatory theories of within-person behavioral variability are increasingly needed as new technologies allow for intensive longitudinal measures and interventions adapted from these inputs. These within-person explanatory theoretical applications can be modeled as dynamical systems. SCT constructs, such as reciprocal determinism, are inherently dynamical in nature, but SCT has not been modeled as a dynamical system. This paper describes the development of a dynamical system model of SCT using fluid analogies and control systems principles drawn from engineering. Simulations of this model were performed to assess if the model performed as predicted based on theory and empirical studies of SCT. This initial model generates precise and testable quantitative predictions for future intensive longitudinal research. Dynamic modeling approaches provide a rigorous method for advancing health behavior theory development and refinement and for guiding the development of more potent and efficient interventions.
Model Checking Dynamic States in GROOVE
Kastenberg, H.; Rensink, Arend; Valmari, A.
2006-01-01
Much research has been done in the field of model-checking complex systems (either hardware or software). Approaches that use explicit state modelling mostly use bit vectors to represent the states of such systems. Unfortunately, that kind of representation does not extend smoothly to systems in
Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation
Fabien, Brian C
2008-01-01
This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.
Modeling and dynamic behaviour of hydropower plants
Kishor, Nand
2017-01-01
This book presents a systematic approach to mathematical modeling of different configurations of hydropower plants over four sections - modeling and simulation approaches; control of hydropower plants; operation and scheduling of hydropower plants, including pumped storage; and special features of small hydropower plants.
Fractional dynamical model for neurovascular coupling
Belkhatir, Zehor
2014-08-01
The neurovascular coupling is a key mechanism linking the neural activity to the hemodynamic behavior. Modeling of this coupling is very important to understand the brain function but it is at the same time very complex due to the complexity of the involved phenomena. Many studies have reported a time delay between the neural activity and the cerebral blood flow, which has been described by adding a delay parameter in some of the existing models. An alternative approach is proposed in this paper, where a fractional system is used to model the neurovascular coupling. Thanks to its nonlocal property, a fractional derivative is suitable for modeling the phenomena with delay. The proposed model is coupled with the first version of the well-known balloon model, which relates the cerebral blood flow to the Blood Oxygen Level Dependent (BOLD) signal measured using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI). Through some numerical simulations, the properties of the fractional model are explained and some preliminary comparisons to a real BOLD data set are provided. © 2014 IEEE.
Mass-casualty events at schools: a national preparedness survey.
Graham, James; Shirm, Steve; Liggin, Rebecca; Aitken, Mary E; Dick, Rhonda
2006-01-01
Recent school shootings and terrorist events have demonstrated the need for well-coordinated planning for school-based mass-casualty events. The objective of this study was to document the preparedness of public schools in the United States for the prevention of and the response to a mass-casualty event. A survey was mailed to 3670 school superintendents of public school districts that were chosen at random from a list of school districts from the National Center for Education Statistics of the US Department of Education in January 2004. A second mailing was sent to nonresponders in May 2004. Descriptive statistics were used for survey variables, and the chi2 test was used to compare urban versus rural preparedness. The response rate was 58.2% (2137 usable surveys returned). Most (86.3%) school superintendents reported having a response plan, but fewer (57.2%) have a plan for prevention. Most (95.6%) have an evacuation plan, but almost one third (30%) had never conducted a drill. Almost one quarter (22.1%) have no disaster plan provisions for children with special health care needs, and one quarter reported having no plans for postdisaster counseling. Almost half (42.8%) had never met with local ambulance officials to discuss emergency planning. Urban school districts were better prepared than rural districts on almost all measures in the survey. There are important deficiencies in school emergency/disaster planning. Rural districts are less well prepared than urban districts. Disaster/mass-casualty preparedness of schools should be improved through coordination of school officials and local medical and emergency officials.
An extended dissipative particle dynamics model
Cotter, C J
2003-01-01
The method of dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) was introduced by Hoogerbrugge & Koelman to study meso-scale material processes. The theoretical investigation of the DPD method was initiated by Espanol who used a Fokker-Planck formulation of the DPD method and applied the Mori-Zwanzig projection operator calculus to obtain the equations of hydrodynamics for DPD. A current limitation of DPD is that it requires a clear separation of scales between the resolved and unresolved processes. In this note, we suggest a simple extension of DPD that allows for inclusion of unresolved processes with exponentially decaying variance for any value of the decay rate. The main point of the extension is that it is as easy to implement as DPD in a numerical algorithm.
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.
The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...... provides a description of the wind turbine modelling, both at a component level and at a system level....
High-energy outer radiation belt dynamic modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chiu, Y.T.; Nightingale, R.W.; Rinaldi, M.A.
1989-01-01
Specification of the average high-energy radiation belt environment in terms of phenomenological montages of satellite measurements has been available for some time. However, for many reasons both scientific and applicational (including concerns for a better understanding of the high-energy radiatino background in space), it is desirable to model the dynamic response of the high-energy radiation belts to sources, to losses, and to geomagnetic activity. Indeed, in the outer electron belt, this is the only mode of modeling that can handle the large intensity fluctuations. Anticipating the dynamic modeling objective of the upcoming Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite (CRRES) program, we have undertaken to initiate the study of the various essential elements in constructing a dynamic radiation belt model based on interpretation of satellite data according to simultaneous radial and pitch-angle diffusion theory. In order to prepare for the dynamic radiation belt modeling based on a large data set spanning a relatively large segment of L-values, such as required for CRRES, it is important to study a number of test cases with data of similar characteristics but more restricted in space-time coverage. In this way, models of increasing comprehensiveness can be built up from the experience of elucidating the dynamics of more restrictive data sets. The principal objectives of this paper are to discuss issues concerning dynamic modeling in general and to summarize in particular the good results of an initial attempt at constructing the dynamics of the outer electron radiation belt based on a moderately active data period from Lockheed's SC-3 instrument flown on board the SCATHA (P78-2) spacecraft. Further, we shall discuss the issues brought out and lessons learned in this test case
Performance of portable ventilators for mass-casualty care.
Blakeman, Thomas C; Rodriquez, Dario; Dorlac, Warren C; Hanseman, Dennis J; Hattery, Ellie; Branson, Richard D
2011-10-01
Disasters and mass-casualty scenarios may overwhelm medical resources regardless of the level of preparation. Disaster response requires medical equipment, such as ventilators, that can be operated under adverse circumstances and should be able to provide respiratory support for a variety of patient populations. The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of three portable ventilators designed to provide ventilatory support outside the hospital setting and in mass-casualty incidents, and their adherence to the Task Force for Mass Critical Care recommendations for mass-casualty care ventilators. Each device was evaluated at minimum and maximum respiratory rate and tidal volume settings to determine the accuracy of set versus delivered VT at lung compliance settings of 0.02, 0.08 and 0.1 L/cm H20 with corresponding resistance settings of 10, 25, and 5 cm H2O/L/sec, to simulate patients with ARDS, severe asthma, and normal lungs. Additionally, different FIO2 settings with each device (if applicable) were evaluated to determine accuracy of FIO2 delivery and evaluate the effect on delivered VT. Ventilators also were tested for duration of battery life. VT decreased with all three devices as compliance decreased. The decrease was more pronounced when the internal compressor was activated. At the 0.65 FIO2 setting on the MCV 200, the measured FIO2 varied widely depending on the set VT. Battery life range was 311-582 minutes with the 73X having the longest battery life. Delivered VT decreased toward the end of battery life with the SAVe having the largest decrease. The respiratory rate on the SAVe also decreased approaching the end of battery life. The 73X and MCV 200 were the closest to satisfying the Task Force for Mass Critical Care requirements for mass casualty ventilators, although neither had the capability to provide PEEP. The 73X provided the most consistent tidal volume delivery across all compliances, had the longest battery duration and the
Sting Dynamics of Wind Tunnel Models
1976-05-01
Titanium Alloys . *N1ckle-Base Superalloys *Steel Alloys * Cobalt -Base Superalloys *Molybdenum Alloys *Tungsten Sintered Tungsten-Titanium Carbide Alloys E... Carbide -Steel Sting... • 0 • • • • • • • • . . . 11 13 14 19 6. Sting Coordinate Systems a. Planar Deflection Geometry of the Sting-Model Concentrated...36 b. Cl’p::; 0.25, 0.50, and 0.75 deg . . . . . . 37 10. Motion History for ATT Model and Carbide -Steel Sting, Condition No
Soil Models and Vehicle System Dynamics
2013-05-07
soil was modeled using the parametric CU-ARL sand model. The vehicle consisted of interconnected subcomponents which include the chassis , suspension...Reece, A.R., 1965, “Principles of Soil-Vehicle Mechanics”, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Automobile Division, 180(2A), pp...77 Mechanical Engineers, Part D: Journal of Automobile Engineering, 223(11), pp. 1419- 1434. [99] Xia, K
Dynamic Properties of a Forest Fire Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Na Min
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The reaction-diffusion equations have been widely used in physics, chemistry, and other areas. Forest fire can also be described by such equations. We here propose a fighting forest fire model. By using the normal form approach theory and center manifold theory, we analyze the stability of the trivial solution and Hopf bifurcation of this model. Finally, we give the numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.
A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joseph Leedale
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.
A Comparative Study of Three Methodologies for Modeling Dynamic Stall
Sankar, L.; Rhee, M.; Tung, C.; ZibiBailly, J.; LeBalleur, J. C.; Blaise, D.; Rouzaud, O.
2002-01-01
During the past two decades, there has been an increased reliance on the use of computational fluid dynamics methods for modeling rotors in high speed forward flight. Computational methods are being developed for modeling the shock induced loads on the advancing side, first-principles based modeling of the trailing wake evolution, and for retreating blade stall. The retreating blade dynamic stall problem has received particular attention, because the large variations in lift and pitching moments encountered in dynamic stall can lead to blade vibrations and pitch link fatigue. Restricting to aerodynamics, the numerical prediction of dynamic stall is still a complex and challenging CFD problem, that, even in two dimensions at low speed, gathers the major difficulties of aerodynamics, such as the grid resolution requirements for the viscous phenomena at leading-edge bubbles or in mixing-layers, the bias of the numerical viscosity, and the major difficulties of the physical modeling, such as the turbulence models, the transition models, whose both determinant influences, already present in static maximal-lift or stall computations, are emphasized by the dynamic aspect of the phenomena.
Unified model of chaotic inflation and dynamical supersymmetry breaking
Harigaya, Keisuke; Schmitz, Kai
2017-10-01
The large hierarchy between the Planck scale and the weak scale can be explained by the dynamical breaking of supersymmetry in strongly coupled gauge theories. Similarly, the hierarchy between the Planck scale and the energy scale of inflation may also originate from strong dynamics, which dynamically generate the inflaton potential. We present a model of the hidden sector which unifies these two ideas, i.e., in which the scales of inflation and supersymmetry breaking are provided by the dynamics of the same gauge group. The resultant inflation model is chaotic inflation with a fractional power-law potential in accord with the upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio. The supersymmetry breaking scale can be much smaller than the inflation scale, so that the solution to the large hierarchy problem of the weak scale remains intact. As an intrinsic feature of our model, we find that the sgoldstino, which might disturb the inflationary dynamics, is automatically stabilized during inflation by dynamically generated corrections in the strongly coupled sector. This renders our model a field-theoretical realization of what is sometimes referred to as sgoldstino-less inflation.
Network Unfolding Map by Vertex-Edge Dynamics Modeling.
Verri, Filipe Alves Neto; Urio, Paulo Roberto; Zhao, Liang
2018-02-01
The emergence of collective dynamics in neural networks is a mechanism of the animal and human brain for information processing. In this paper, we develop a computational technique using distributed processing elements in a complex network, which are called particles, to solve semisupervised learning problems. Three actions govern the particles' dynamics: generation, walking, and absorption. Labeled vertices generate new particles that compete against rival particles for edge domination. Active particles randomly walk in the network until they are absorbed by either a rival vertex or an edge currently dominated by rival particles. The result from the model evolution consists of sets of edges arranged by the label dominance. Each set tends to form a connected subnetwork to represent a data class. Although the intrinsic dynamics of the model is a stochastic one, we prove that there exists a deterministic version with largely reduced computational complexity; specifically, with linear growth. Furthermore, the edge domination process corresponds to an unfolding map in such way that edges "stretch" and "shrink" according to the vertex-edge dynamics. Consequently, the unfolding effect summarizes the relevant relationships between vertices and the uncovered data classes. The proposed model captures important details of connectivity patterns over the vertex-edge dynamics evolution, in contrast to the previous approaches, which focused on only vertex or only edge dynamics. Computer simulations reveal that the new model can identify nonlinear features in both real and artificial data, including boundaries between distinct classes and overlapping structures of data.
Nonequilibrium Dynamical Mean-Field Theory for Bosonic Lattice Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hugo U. R. Strand
2015-03-01
Full Text Available We develop the nonequilibrium extension of bosonic dynamical mean-field theory and a Nambu real-time strong-coupling perturbative impurity solver. In contrast to Gutzwiller mean-field theory and strong-coupling perturbative approaches, nonequilibrium bosonic dynamical mean-field theory captures not only dynamical transitions but also damping and thermalization effects at finite temperature. We apply the formalism to quenches in the Bose-Hubbard model, starting from both the normal and the Bose-condensed phases. Depending on the parameter regime, one observes qualitatively different dynamical properties, such as rapid thermalization, trapping in metastable superfluid or normal states, as well as long-lived or strongly damped amplitude oscillations. We summarize our results in nonequilibrium “phase diagrams” that map out the different dynamical regimes.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Marine Casualty and Pollution Data files provide details about marine casualty and pollution incidents investigated by Coast Guard Offices throughout the United...
1995-02-01
World wide merchant vessel fire and explosion data were analyzed to determine the contribution of these casualties to the marine pollution problem. The source of information is the Lloyd's Casualty Information System Data Base. The major findings of ...
Dynamic neutron scattering from conformational dynamics. I. Theory and Markov models.
Lindner, Benjamin; Yi, Zheng; Prinz, Jan-Hendrik; Smith, Jeremy C; Noé, Frank
2013-11-07
The dynamics of complex molecules can be directly probed by inelastic neutron scattering experiments. However, many of the underlying dynamical processes may exist on similar timescales, which makes it difficult to assign processes seen experimentally to specific structural rearrangements. Here, we show how Markov models can be used to connect structural changes observed in molecular dynamics simulation directly to the relaxation processes probed by scattering experiments. For this, a conformational dynamics theory of dynamical neutron and X-ray scattering is developed, following our previous approach for computing dynamical fingerprints of time-correlation functions [F. Noé, S. Doose, I. Daidone, M. Löllmann, J. Chodera, M. Sauer, and J. Smith, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 108, 4822 (2011)]. Markov modeling is used to approximate the relaxation processes and timescales of the molecule via the eigenvectors and eigenvalues of a transition matrix between conformational substates. This procedure allows the establishment of a complete set of exponential decay functions and a full decomposition into the individual contributions, i.e., the contribution of every atom and dynamical process to each experimental relaxation process.
Dynamic modeling, simulation and control of energy generation
Vepa, Ranjan
2013-01-01
This book addresses the core issues involved in the dynamic modeling, simulation and control of a selection of energy systems such as gas turbines, wind turbines, fuel cells and batteries. The principles of modeling and control could be applied to other non-convention methods of energy generation such as solar energy and wave energy.A central feature of Dynamic Modeling, Simulation and Control of Energy Generation is that it brings together diverse topics in thermodynamics, fluid mechanics, heat transfer, electro-chemistry, electrical networks and electrical machines and focuses on their appli
Wind speed dynamical model in a wind farm
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal
2010-01-01
, the dynamic model for wind flow will be established. The state space variables are determined based on a fine mesh defined for the farm. The end goal of this method is to assist the development of a dynamical model of a wind farm that can be engaged for better wind farm control strategies.......This paper presents a model for wind speed in a wind farm. The basic purpose of the paper is to calculate approximately the wind speed in the vicinity of each wind turbine in a farm. In this regard the governing equations of flow will be solved for the whole wind farm. In ideal circumstances...
Transmission dynamics of cholera: Mathematical modeling and control strategies
Sun, Gui-Quan; Xie, Jun-Hui; Huang, Sheng-He; Jin, Zhen; Li, Ming-Tao; Liu, Liqun
2017-04-01
Cholera, as an endemic disease around the world, has generated great threat to human society and caused enormous morbidity and mortality with weak surveillance system. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to describe the transmission of Cholera. Moreover, basic reproduction number and the global dynamics of the dynamical model are obtained. Then we apply our model to characterize the transmission process of Cholera in China. It was found that, in order to avoid its outbreak in China, it may be better to increase immunization coverage rate and make effort to improve environmental management especially for drinking water. Our results may provide some new insights for elimination of Cholera.
Analysis of a multi patch dynamical model about cattle brucellosis
Juan Zhang; Shigui Ruan; Guiquan Sun; Xiangdong Sun; Zhen Jin
2014-01-01
The dissemination of cattle brucellosis in Zhejiang province of China can be attributed to the transport of cattle between cities within the province. In this paper,an n-patch dynamical model is proposed to study the effect of cattle dispersal on brucellosis spread. Theoretically, we analyze the dynamical behavior of the muti-patch model. For the 2-patch submodel, sensitivity analyses of the basic reproduction number R0 and the number of the infectious cattle in term of model parameters are c...
Dynamics of dilute disordered models: A solvable case
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Semerjian, Guilhem; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.
2003-09-01
We study the dynamics of a dilute spherical model with two body interactions and random exchanges. We analyze the Langevin equations and we introduce a functional variational method to study generic dilute disordered models. A crossover temperature replaces the dynamic transition of the fully-connected limit. There are two asymptotic regimes, one determined by the central band of the spectral density of the interactions and a slower one determined by localized configurations on sites with high connectivity. We confront the behavior of this model to the one of real glasses. (author)
Data Driven Broiler Weight Forecasting using Dynamic Neural Network Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johansen, Simon Vestergaard; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Riisgaard-Jensen, Martin
2017-01-01
In this article, the dynamic influence of environmental broiler house conditions and broiler growth is investigated. Dynamic neural network forecasting models have been trained on farm-scale broiler batch production data from 12 batches from the same house. The model forecasts future broiler weight...... and uses environmental conditions such as heating, ventilation, and temperature along with broiler behavior such as feed and water consumption. Training data and forecasting data is analyzed to explain when the model might fail at generalizing. We present ensemble broiler weight forecasts to day 7, 14, 21......, 28 and 34 from all preceding days and provide our interpretation of the results. Results indicate that the dynamic interconnection between environmental conditions and broiler growth can be captured by the model. Furthermore, we found that a comparable forecast can be obtained by using input data...
[Ageing and Alzheimer disease - system dynamics model prediction].
Tomášková, Hana; Kühnová, Jitka; Kuča, Kamil
The aim of the paper is to describe asystem dynamics model applied on aprediction of the number of patients with Alzheimers disease in the EU in the future and related financial impacts. Dementia resulting from Alzheimers disease is the most widely spread type of dementia and is highly connected with the age of the person - the patient. Most people are diagnosed with Alzheimers disease when they are older than 64. The ageing of population will be an ongoing problem in the next few decades due to alow birth rate and increasing life expectancy. This is areason to focus on prediction models of Alzheimers disease and its impact on economy. The paper presents adynamic modelling approach of system dynamics. The created model of the EU population and patients with AD is expanded by afinancial submodel at the end. This submodel estimates the cost on patients from three available cost studies.Key words: systém dynamic Alzhimers disease population ageing.
Dynamic data analysis modeling data with differential equations
Ramsay, James
2017-01-01
This text focuses on the use of smoothing methods for developing and estimating differential equations following recent developments in functional data analysis and building on techniques described in Ramsay and Silverman (2005) Functional Data Analysis. The central concept of a dynamical system as a buffer that translates sudden changes in input into smooth controlled output responses has led to applications of previously analyzed data, opening up entirely new opportunities for dynamical systems. The technical level has been kept low so that those with little or no exposure to differential equations as modeling objects can be brought into this data analysis landscape. There are already many texts on the mathematical properties of ordinary differential equations, or dynamic models, and there is a large literature distributed over many fields on models for real world processes consisting of differential equations. However, a researcher interested in fitting such a model to data, or a statistician interested in...
More dynamical models of our Galaxy
Binney, James
2012-10-01
A companion paper presents an algorithm for estimating the actions of orbits in axisymmetric potentials. This algorithm is fast enough for it to be feasible to fit automatically a parametrized distribution function to observational data for the solar neighbourhood. We explore the predictive power of these models and the extent to which global models are constrained by data confined to the solar cylinder. We adopt a gravitational potential that is generated by three discs (gas and both thin and thick stellar discs), a bulge and a dark halo, and fit the thin-disc component of the distribution function to the solar-neighbourhood velocity distribution from the Geneva-Copenhagen survey. We find that the disc's vertical density profile is in good agreement with data at z ≲ 500 pc. The thick-disc component of the distribution function is then used to extend the fit to data from Gilmore & Reid for z ≲ 2.5 kpc. The resulting model predicts excellent fits to the profile of the vertical velocity dispersion σz(z) from the RAVE survey and to the distribution of vφ velocity components at |z| ˜ 1 kpc from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The ability of this model to predict successfully data that were not used in the fitting process suggests that the adopted gravitational potential (which is close to a maximum-disc potential) is close to the true one. We show that if another plausible potential is used, the predicted values of σz are too large. The models imply that in contrast to the thin disc, the thick disc has to be hotter vertically than radially, a prediction that it will be possible to test in the near future. When the model parameters are adjusted in an unconstrained manner, there is a tendency to produce models that predict unexpected radial variations in quantities such as scale height. This finding suggests that to constrain these models adequately one needs data that extends significantly beyond the solar cylinder. The models presented in this paper might prove
Modelling Emission from Building Materials with Computational Fluid Dynamics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Topp, Claus; Nielsen, Peter V.; Heiselberg, Per
This paper presents a numerical model that by means of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is capable of dealing with both pollutant transport across the boundary layer and internal diffusion in the source without prior knowledge of which is the limiting process. The model provides the concentration...
dynamic modeling of natural convection solar energy flat plate ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
NIJOTECH
ABSTRACT. The analytical solutions to the dynamic model of an air-heating flat plate solar energy thermal collector were validated by direct measurement from a physical model constructed for that purpose, of the temperatures of the cover and absorber plates, the inlet and outlet fluids, and the ambient air from morning to ...
Data-Based Mechanistic Modeling of Flow-Concentration Dynamics ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Journal of Civil Engineering Research and Practice ... The resulting model showed that it is possible to use the DBM modelling approach to address the problem of representing the potential lag between polluting activity and its effect as well as provide more salient information about the system dynamics. This kind of ...
Active site modeling in copper azurin molecular dynamics simulations
Rizzuti, B; Swart, M; Sportelli, L; Guzzi, R
Active site modeling in molecular dynamics simulations is investigated for the reduced state of copper azurin. Five simulation runs (5 ns each) were performed at room temperature to study the consequences of a mixed electrostatic/constrained modeling for the coordination between the metal and the
Phase-space dynamics of Bianchi IX cosmological models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soares, I.D.
1985-01-01
The complex phase-space dynamical behaviour of a class of Biachi IX cosmological models is discussed, as the chaotic gravitational collapse due Poincare's homoclinic phenomena, and the n-furcation of periodic orbits and tori in the phase space of the models. Poincare maps which show this behaviour are constructed merically and applications are discussed. (Author) [pt
Application of computational fluid dynamics modelling to an ozone ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling has been applied to examine the operation of the pre-ozonation system at Wiggins Waterworks, operated by Umgeni Water in Durban, South Africa. A hydraulic model has been satisfactorily verified by experimental tracer tests. The turbulence effect induced by the gas ...
A tri-objective, dynamic weapon assignment model for surface ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In this paper, a tri-objective, dynamic weapon assignment model is proposed by modelling the weapon assignment problem as a multi-objective variation of the celebrated vehicle routing problem with time windows. A multi-objective, evolutionary metaheuristic for solving the vehicle routing problem with time windows is ...
On the Dynamics of the Fermi-Bose model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ögren, Magnus
In this talk we formulate and prove results for the exponential matrix representing the dynamics of the Fermi-Bose model in an undepleted bosonic field approximation. A recent application of this model is molecular dimmers dissociating into its atomic compounds. The problem is solved in D spatial...... molecular Bose-Einstein condensate....
Dynamics of predator-prey models with refuge, harvesting and ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The dynamics of predator-prey models with different prey harvesting functions and prey refuge is studied. This study includes a three-dimensional model to account for the dispersal of prey to a habitat where it is unavailable to the predator. Besides local stability analysis, one central question is how harvesting, refuge and ...
e-Commerce and supply chains: Modelling of dynamics through ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The dynamics associated with two production planning and control policies are modelled, viz. make-to-stock and assemble-to-order in vague and ambiguous situations in electronic commerce environment. A fuzzy set and fuzzy truth-values are attached to an uncertain fuzzy token to model imprecision and uncertainty.
The importance of dynamics in panel gravity models of trade
Bun, M.J.G.; Klaassen, F.J.G.M.
2002-01-01
Existing gravity models of trade based on panel data are often static, that is, they only allow for contemporaneous effects of regressors on trade. However, there are numerous economic arguments suggesting that trade is a dynamic process. Hence, we extend the static model with lagged regressors
On the Utility of Island Models in Dynamic Optimization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lissovoi, Andrei; Witt, Carsten
2015-01-01
A simple island model with λ islands and migration occurring after every τ iterations is studied on the dynamic fitness function Maze. This model is equivalent to a (1+λ) EA if τ=1, i.e., migration occurs during every iteration. It is proved that even for an increased offspring population size up...
Modeling ion channel dynamics through reflected stochastic differential equations.
Dangerfield, Ciara E; Kay, David; Burrage, Kevin
2012-05-01
Ion channels are membrane proteins that open and close at random and play a vital role in the electrical dynamics of excitable cells. The stochastic nature of the conformational changes these proteins undergo can be significant, however current stochastic modeling methodologies limit the ability to study such systems. Discrete-state Markov chain models are seen as the "gold standard," but are computationally intensive, restricting investigation of stochastic effects to the single-cell level. Continuous stochastic methods that use stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to model the system are more efficient but can lead to simulations that have no biological meaning. In this paper we show that modeling the behavior of ion channel dynamics by a reflected SDE ensures biologically realistic simulations, and we argue that this model follows from the continuous approximation of the discrete-state Markov chain model. Open channel and action potential statistics from simulations of ion channel dynamics using the reflected SDE are compared with those of a discrete-state Markov chain method. Results show that the reflected SDE simulations are in good agreement with the discrete-state approach. The reflected SDE model therefore provides a computationally efficient method to simulate ion channel dynamics while preserving the distributional properties of the discrete-state Markov chain model and also ensuring biologically realistic solutions. This framework could easily be extended to other biochemical reaction networks.