A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Science.gov (United States)

Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

2018-01-01

We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bastin, L.; Cornford, D.; Jones, R.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.; Stasch, C.; Nativi, S.; Mazzetti, P.

2013-01-01

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing

Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

Science.gov (United States)

Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

2017-11-01

The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.

Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyler, David Clinton

1984-01-01

Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

Environmental evaluation of the air in a quarry in complex land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bedoya V, Julian

1999-01-01

Wind motion in a mountain terrain is hard to model, especially if it is located in the dividing line of the mountain where different wind regimes meet. In addition to difficulties in assessing wind fields, air pollution modeling requires special handling of receptors to estimate pollutant concentration (basically total suspended particulate for the case of a quarry). Modeling procedures are explained based on an exceptionally complex application for a quarry located in a mountain gorge in an eastern Colombian mountain. Emission factors of the US Environmental Protection Agency were applied to this example and the information was processed to use the ISCLT (Industrial Source Complex Long Term) dispersion model. Required meteorological information was obtained by interpolation of wind roses recorded in the two sides of the mountain (Santa fe de Bogota and Villavicencio). Two scenarios were modeled generating satisfying results since the highest air quality impacts are inside property line where occupational hygiene is applied

Environmental Complexity: ethic-environmental propositions of the Latin- American Environmental Thought

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera de Echeverri, Ana Patricia

2007-01-01

In this article, are compiled the most important ethic-environmental propositions of the Latin- American Environmental Thought, that had been growing up 30 years ago. In it are authors outlined in the field of the philosophic environmental thought, as the philosopher and Colombian thinker, of Latin-American transcendence, Augusto Angel Maya, who pustules the possibility of build en Ethical - Esthetic Environmental Philosophy, in fact of the Modern Philosophy have been metaphysic, even in the empiric, positivist and neo-positivist tendencies. It has been outlined the Enrique Leff's work, Mexican, who proposes his concepts of Complexity and Environmental Known as an initial point of an ethic in the education, science and technology into of an systemic and holistic relations. Equally, the Julio Carrizosa's ethical - esthetic proposition, also Colombian, which this essay shows as a fundamental political propose against Colombian problems as violence and exclusion. The propositions of Colombian philosophers of big relevance in the politic-moral philosophy had become in a public and communicative environmental ethic, that's the case of Guillermo Hoyos Vasquez and other thinkers as in Colombia and so other Latin-American countries which are shown in this space, with the finality of to pick up in a critical way our ideas about the possibility of an environmental ethic, that means an decentred ethic, with out subject and object, and systemic ethic, where the values has come being constructed 2.500 millions years ago, of which we are pure threads, an ethic that pass of been an object to be first a value in his greater sense

A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. J. Dermody

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

The Value of Conceptual Models in Coping with Complexity and Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Sciences Education

Science.gov (United States)

Fortuin, Karen P. J.; van Koppen, C. S. A.; Leemans, Rik

2011-01-01

Conceptual models are useful for facing the challenges of environmental sciences curriculum and course developers and students. These challenges are inherent to the interdisciplinary and problem-oriented character of environmental sciences curricula. In this article, we review the merits of conceptual models in facing these challenges. These…

Bacterial biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relations are modified by environmental complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Langenheder, Silke; Bulling, Mark T; Solan, Martin; Prosser, James I

2010-05-26

With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity) relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity ecosystem functioning relationships, suggests that detailed knowledge of how individual

Bacterial biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relations are modified by environmental complexity.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silke Langenheder

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity

Modeling environmental policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

1997-01-01

The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

OpenAIRE

Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

2006-01-01

Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2017-04-03

There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

A resource oriented webs service for environmental modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Ferencik, Ioan

2013-04-01

Environmental modeling is a largely adopted practice in the study of natural phenomena. Environmental models can be difficult to build and use and thus sharing them within the community is an important aspect. The most common approach to share a model is to expose it as a web service. In practice the interaction with this web service is cumbersome due to lack of standardized contract and the complexity of the model being exposed. In this work we investigate the use of a resource oriented approach in exposing environmental models as web services. We view a model as a layered resource build atop the object concept from Object Oriented Programming, augmented with persistence capabilities provided by an embedded object database to keep track of its state and implementing the four basic principles of resource oriented architectures: addressability, statelessness, representation and uniform interface. For implementation we use exclusively open source software: Django framework, dyBase object oriented database and Python programming language. We developed a generic framework of resources structured into a hierarchy of types and consequently extended this typology with recurses specific to the domain of environmental modeling. To test our web service we used cURL, a robust command-line based web client.

An open-source Java-based Toolbox for environmental model evaluation: The MOUSE Software Application

Science.gov (United States)

A consequence of environmental model complexity is that the task of understanding how environmental models work and identifying their sensitivities/uncertainties, etc. becomes progressively more difficult. Comprehensive numerical and visual evaluation tools have been developed such as the Monte Carl...

The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James G Dyke

Full Text Available The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Dyke, James G; Weaver, Iain S

2013-01-01

The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

Modeling and Simulation of Multi-scale Environmental Systems with Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mostafa eHerajy

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Predicting and studying the dynamics and properties of environmental systems necessitates the construction and simulation of mathematical models entailing different levels of complexities. Such type of computational experiments often require the combination of discrete and continuous variables as well as processes operating at different time scales. Furthermore, the iterative steps of constructing and analyzing environmental models might involve researchers with different background. Hybrid Petri nets may contribute in overcoming such challenges as they facilitate the implementation of systems integrating discrete and continuous dynamics. Additionally, the visual depiction of model components will inevitably help to bridge the gap between scientists with distinct expertise working on the same problem. Thus, modeling environmental systems with hybrid Petri nets enables the construction of complex processes while keeping the models comprehensible for researchers working on the same project with significantly divergent education path. In this paper we propose the utilization of a special class of hybrid Petri nets, Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN, to model and simulate environmental systems exposing processes interacting at different time-scales. GHPN integrate stochastic and deterministic semantics as well as other types of special basic events. Moreover, a case study is presented to illustrate the use of GHPN in constructing and simulating multi-timescale environmental scenarios.

Health and environmental effects of complex chemical mixtures: proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1985-01-01

The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) of the Department of Energy supports a broad long-term research program on human health and environmental effects from potential exposure to energy-related complex chemical mixtures. The program seeks basic mechanistic data on the effects of complex mixtures at the cellular, molecular, and whole animal levels to aid in predicting human health effects and seeks ecological data on biological and physical transformations in the mixtures, concentrations of the mixtures in various compartments of the environment, and potential routes for human exposure to these mixtures (e.g., food chain). On June 17-18, 1985, OHER held its First Annual Technical Meeting on the Complex Chemical Mixtures Program in Chicago, IL. The primary purpose of the meeting was to enable principal investigators to report the research status and accomplishments of ongoing complex chemical mixture studies supported by OHER. To help focus future research directions round table discussions were conducted.

Documentation of a simple environmental pathways model of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shuman, R.D.; Case, M.J.; Rope, S.K.

1985-09-01

The DOSTOMAN code calculates compartment inventories of radioactivity for all model compartments defined. Calculations are performed for the entire period of time simulated, at user-designated intervals. This output permits tracking of radionuclide movement within and from the disposal site. Simulation runs were performed for 60 Co, 90 Sr, 137 Cs, 239 Pu, and 241 Am for the duration of the site's operational period. For calculational purposes only, this period was assumed to extend to the year 2093. Sensitivity analyses, in which the relative importance of biotic and abiotic transport processes in radionuclide migration was evaluated, were performed for the EDS and CDS models. Interactive effects between transport processes were examined, as were time-dependent changes in process sensitivities. Results of the analyses are useful in defining the adequacy of present environmental monitoring activities. The current monitoring program addresses all pertinent environmental media. The level of comprehensiveness in sampling each medium, however, does not reflect differences in importance of the various transport processes. A number of special studies, in progress or planned, are expected to aid in improving the monitoring program. Limitations of the DOSTOMAN model, as applied to the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, are discussed. Modeling of atmospheric and hydrologic dispersion of contaminants, and consideration of seasonal dynamics of transport processes, are identified as most deserving of attention. It is recognized that, to the extent that further refinements of the monitoring program are based on model projections, resolution of these limitations is important. Recommendations are offered for work needed to deal with these limitations, many of which are already planned for implementation

A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

2014-12-01

Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

'spup' - An R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sawicka, K.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

2016-01-01

Computer models are crucial tools in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex systems. While many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty analysis

Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Love Ekenberg

2011-08-01

Full Text Available During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests. A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

Managing Complex Environmental Risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlsson, Mikael [Karlstad Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Environmental Sciences

2006-09-15

Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

Managing Complex Environmental Risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karlsson, Mikael

2006-01-01

Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

THE EVALUATION OF DIVERSITY OF EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS OF LATVIAN RURAL SCHOOLS

OpenAIRE

Katane, Irēna; Laizāne, Anna

2015-01-01

Under conditions of changes and instability in any state rural schools are faced to look for different directions of development in order to manage in the rural areas. Thus the inner structure of rural schools becomes complex and causes formation of new educational environmental models of Latvian rural schools. The aims of the article: 1) to give substantiation of the concept model; 2) to give classification of educational environmental models of rural schools; 3) to emphasize the advantages ...

Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

Science.gov (United States)

Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

2004-12-01

Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

1998-01-01

This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

Environmental layout complexity affects neural activity during navigation in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Slone, Edward; Burles, Ford; Iaria, Giuseppe

2016-05-01

Navigating large-scale surroundings is a fundamental ability. In humans, it is commonly assumed that navigational performance is affected by individual differences, such as age, sex, and cognitive strategies adopted for orientation. We recently showed that the layout of the environment itself also influences how well people are able to find their way within it, yet it remains unclear whether differences in environmental complexity are associated with changes in brain activity during navigation. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate how the brain responds to a change in environmental complexity by asking participants to perform a navigation task in two large-scale virtual environments that differed solely in interconnection density, a measure of complexity defined as the average number of directional choices at decision points. The results showed that navigation in the simpler, less interconnected environment was faster and more accurate relative to the complex environment, and such performance was associated with increased activity in a number of brain areas (i.e. precuneus, retrosplenial cortex, and hippocampus) known to be involved in mental imagery, navigation, and memory. These findings provide novel evidence that environmental complexity not only affects navigational behaviour, but also modulates activity in brain regions that are important for successful orientation and navigation. © 2016 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

Science.gov (United States)

Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

2007-01-01

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

Entrepreneurial environmental management model of marketing in a political-administrative system of Ukraine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadchenko Olena Vasylivna

2015-02-01

Full Text Available The article deals with proposals for entrepreneurial model of environmental management, in particular environmental marketing in modern political and administrative systems. In the context of the complexity of the social structure, forming a dense network of communications, globalization, cultural and economic-ecological space offers new mechanisms for the relationship between the state and civil society in environmental management.

Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

2003-01-01

To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

Environmental management on the basis of Complex Regional Indicators Concept: case of the Murmansk region

Science.gov (United States)

Kozlov, A.; Gutman, S.; Zaychenko, I.; Rytova, E.; Nijinskaya, P.

2015-09-01

The article presents an approach to sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation based on the complex regional indicators as a transformation of a balance scorecard method. The peculiarities of Murmansk region connected with sustainable environmental development are described. The complex regional indicators approach allows to elaborate the general concept of complex regional development taking into consideration economic and non-economic factors with the focus on environmental aspects, accumulated environmental damage in particular. General strategic chart of sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region worked out on the basis of complex regional indicators concept is composed. The key target indicators of sustainable ecological development of the Murmansk region are presented for the following strategic chart components: regional finance; society and market; industry and entrepreneurship; training, development and innovations. These charts are to be integrated with international environmental monitoring systems.

A complex social-ecological disaster: Environmentally induced forced migration.

Science.gov (United States)

Rechkemmer, Andreas; O'Connor, Ashley; Rai, Abha; Decker Sparks, Jessica L; Mudliar, Pranietha; Shultz, James M

2016-01-01

In the 21 st century, global issues are increasingly characterized by inter-connectedness and complexity. Global environmental change, and climate change in particular, has become a powerful driver and catalyst of forced migration and internal displacement of people. Environmental migrants may far outnumber any other group of displaced people and refugees in the years to come. Deeper scientific integration, especially across the social sciences, is a prerequisite to tackle this issue.

Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William Gerson Matias

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

Macro-economic environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wier, M.

1993-01-01

In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

Science.gov (United States)

Merow, Cory; Smith, Matthew J.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Guisan, Antoine; McMahon, Sean M.; Normand, Signe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wuest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Elith, Jane

2014-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence–environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence–environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building ‘under fit’ models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence–environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building ‘over fit’ models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species

Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

Science.gov (United States)

Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

2015-04-01

Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

Finding Positive Feedback Loops in Environmental Models: A Mathematical Investigation

Science.gov (United States)

Sheikholeslami, R.; Razavi, S.

2016-12-01

Dynamics of most earth and environmental systems are generally governed by interactions between several hydrological (e.g., soil moisture and precipitation), geological (e.g., and erosion), geochemical (e.g., nutrient loading), and atmospheric (e.g., temperature) processes which operate on a range of spatio-temporal scales. These interactions create numerous feedback mechanisms with complex behaviours, and their understanding and representation can vary depending on the scale in space and/or time at which the system is analyzed. One of the most crucial characteristics of such complex systems is the existence of positive feedback loops. The presence of positive feedbacks may increase complexity, accelerate change, or trigger multiple stable states in the underlying dynamical system. Furthermore, because of the inherent non-linearity, it is often very difficult to obtain a general idea of their complex dynamics. Feedback loops in environmental systems have been well recognized and qualitatively discussed. With a quantitative/mathematical view, in this presentation, we address the question of how the positive feedback loops can be identified/implemented in environmental models. We investigate the nature of different feedback mechanisms and dynamics of simple example case studies that underlie fundamental processes such as vegetation, precipitation and soil moisture. To do this, we apply the concept of "interaction graph" from mathematics which is built from the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system. The Jacobian matrix contains information on how variations of one state variable depends on variations of other variables, and thus can be used to understand the dynamical possibilities of feedback mechanisms in the underlying system. Moreover, this study highlights that there are some situations where the existence of positive feedback loops can cause multiple stable states, and thereby regime shifts in environmental systems. Systems with multiple stable states are

Environmental system analysis of waste management. Experiences from applications of the ORWARE model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bjoerklund, Anna

2000-11-01

Waste management has gone through a history of shifting problems, demands, and strategies over the years. In contrast to the long prevailing view that the problem could be solved by hiding or moving it, waste is now viewed as a problem ranging from local to global concern, and as being an integral part of several sectors in society. Decisive for this view has been society's increasing complexity and thus the increasing complexity of waste, together with a general development of environmental consciousness, moving from local focus on point emission sources, to regional and global issues of more complex nature. This thesis is about the development and application ORWARE; a model for computer aided environmental systems analysis of municipal waste management. Its origin is the hypothesis that widened perspectives are needed in waste management decision-making to avoid severe sub-optimisation of environmental performance. With a strong foundation in life cycle assessment (LCA), ORWARE aims to cover the environmental impacts over the entire life cycle of waste management. It also performs substance flow analysis (SFA) calculations at a rather detailed level of the system. Applying ORWARE has confirmed the importance of applying systems perspective and of taking into account site specific differences in analysis and planning of waste management, rather than relying on overly simplified solutions. Some findings can be generalised and used as guidelines to reduce environmental impact of waste management. Recovery of material and energy resources from waste generally leads to net reductions in energy use and environmental impact, because of the savings this brings about in other sectors. Waste treatment with low rate of energy and materials recovery should therefore be avoided. The exact choice of technology however depends on what products can be recovered and how they are used. Despite the complexity of the model and a certain degree of user unfriendliness, involved

Environmental impact assessment for the Nova projects (Building 391 complex)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Odell, B.N.

1979-01-01

The environmental impact assessment of the Nova projects (Building 391 Complex) describes (1) the proposed actions, (2) the existing environment in and around the Livermore Valley, and (3) the potential environmental impacts from the construction and operation of these facilities. It shows that the proposed action does not conflict with any Federal, State, Regional, or Local Plans and Programs. Possible alternatives to the proposed action are discussed. However, it is concluded that the proposed actions were the most reasonable of the alternatives and would involve relatively minor adverse environmental impacts

Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

1982-08-01

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report

Strategic planning model for achieving stakeholder involvement in environmental at DOE weapons complex sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weber, G.

1994-01-01

Within today's reality a public manager often needs to develop cooperative relationships among a number of individual, program, and organizational stakeholders to accomplish particular projects, programs, or policies. A DOE site manager charged with accomplishing environmental restoration and conversion at former weapons production sites is no exception. Important reasons for this include the technical and political complexity of the clean-up problem; limits on the funding, authority, and other resources available to DOE; authority, responsibilities, and interests of other stakeholders; and the ever present potential for conflict among stakeholders, and power of any one to hinder, if not halt, the clean-up process if conflicts aren't managed and cooperative relationships established and maintained

Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antoci, Angelo; Sodini, Mauro

2009-01-01

We analyze an overlapping generations model where agent's welfare depends on three goods: leisure, environmental quality and consumption of a private good. We assume that the production process of the private good depletes the natural resource and that the consumption of the private good alleviates the damages due to environmental deterioration. In such context, we show that individuals' reactions to environmental deterioration may lead to complex dynamics, in particular to the rise of periodic orbits and chaos.

Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kelly, Rebecca A.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; El-Sawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jorgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; van Delden, H.; Voinov, A.

2013-01-01

The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a

Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

Science.gov (United States)

Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

2001-02-01

General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

Compliance with Environmental Regulations through Complex Geo-Event Processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Federico Herrera

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In a context of e-government, there are usually regulatory compliance requirements that support systems must monitor, control and enforce. These requirements may come from environmental laws and regulations that aim to protect the natural environment and mitigate the effects of pollution on human health and ecosystems. Monitoring compliance with these requirements involves processing a large volume of data from different sources, which is a major challenge. This volume is also increased with data coming from autonomous sensors (e.g. reporting carbon emission in protected areas and from citizens providing information (e.g. illegal dumping in a voluntary way. Complex Event Processing (CEP technologies allow processing large amount of event data and detecting patterns from them. However, they do not provide native support for the geographic dimension of events which is essential for monitoring requirements which apply to specific geographic areas. This paper proposes a geospatial extension for CEP that allows monitoring environmental requirements considering the geographic location of the processed data. We extend an existing platform-independent, model-driven approach for CEP adding the geographic location to events and specifying patterns using geographic operators. The use and technical feasibility of the proposal is shown through the development of a case study and the implementation of a prototype.

Environmental Modeling Center

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

From process complexity to communication effectiveness: A challenge to those within and outside of the environmental sciences

Science.gov (United States)

Kaiser, K. E.; McGlynn, B. L.

2014-12-01

Interdisciplinary work has become a cornerstone in research across the environmental sciences. Our work does so by evaluating biogeochemical cycling, specifically methane, in the context of landscape hydrology. Atmospheric methane is a greenhouse gas 27 times more potent than carbon dioxide and has been increasing at an unprecedented rate. This drastic increase in atmospheric methane has been attributed to anthropogenic activities such as burning of fossil fuels, ruminants, and rice cultivation, which together constitute approximately 67% of global methane sources. Characterizing CH4 flux in natural systems has remained difficult due to complex relationships among environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and soil water content). To address this, we focus on how the redistribution of water in complex terrain influences the magnitude and direction of flux in upland and riparian soils. Distilling this complex behavior and scaling these observations is complicated by interacting feedback loops and uncertainties associated with global scale modeling. However, progress is critical given that predicting future climate is necessary to forecasting the quantity and distribution of available fresh water, and understanding how ecosystem processes, and energy/food production will be affected. Water sciences and environmental science as a whole must improve communication to a range of audiences, and advocate for researchers, policy makers, and business leaders to work together for a more sustainable future. A crucial step in this process is to optimize the appropriate level of information to convey that is both memorable and meaningful given the complexity of environmental systems. The challenge also extends to artists and filmmakers to present the subject in compelling ways that inspire audiences to take action in their own communities. True integration of professionals across environmental, social, political, and economic disciplines while motivating local involvement

A model for organizing and analyzing integration of environmental concerns in product design and re-design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

2014-01-01

Based on examples from research and innovation within nanotechnology, housing, bioenergy, and clothing the complexity of environmental innovation is discussed. A model for a more holistic approach to environmental innovation, which can be used both as part of innovation processes and for analyses...

Assessing the Role of Environmental Factors on Baltic Cod Recruitment, a Complex Adaptive System Emergent Property

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dionysis Krekoukiotis

2016-07-01

Full Text Available For decades, fish recruitment has been a subject of intensive research with stock–recruitment models commonly used for recruitment prediction often only explaining a small fraction of the inter-annual recruitment variation. The use of environmental information to improve our ability to predict recruitment, could contribute considerably to fisheries management. However, the problem remains difficult because the mechanisms behind such complex relationships are often poorly understood; this in turn, makes it difficult to determine the forecast estimation robustness, leading to the failure of some relationships when new data become available. The utility of machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANNs for solving complex problems has been demonstrated in aquatic studies and has led many researchers to advocate ANNs as an attractive, non-linear alternative to traditional statistical methods. The goal of this study is to design a Baltic cod recruitment model (FishANN that can account for complex ecosystem interactions. To this end, we (1 build a quantitative model representation of the conceptual understanding of the complex ecosystem interactions driving Baltic cod recruitment dynamics, and (2 apply the model to strengthen the current capability to project future changes in Baltic cod recruitment. FishANN is demonstrated to bring multiple stressors together into one model framework and estimate the relative importance of these stressors while interpreting the complex nonlinear interactions between them. Additional requirements to further improve the current study in the future are also proposed.

Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williford, R.E.

2006-01-01

When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model

OpenAIRE

Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S.; Breen, Lauren J.; Witt, Regina R.; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

2016-01-01

Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of p...

Environmental model for a capital city

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

2013-06-01

Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

DOE's efforts to correct environmental problems of the nuclear weapons complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rezendes, V.S.

1990-03-01

This report focuses on four main issues: the environmental problems at DOE's nuclear weapons complex, recent changes in DOE's organizational structure, DOE's 1991 budget request, and the need for effective management systems. This report concludes that the environmental problems are enormous and will take decades to resolve. Widespread contamination can be found at many DOE sites, and the full extent of the environmental problems is unknown. DOE has taken several steps during the past year to better deal with these problems, including making organizational improvements and requesting additional funds for environmental restoration and waste management activities

An environmental assessment system for environmental technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2014-01-01

A new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies, EASETECH, has been developed. The primary aim of EASETECH is to perform life-cycle assessment (LCA) of complex systems handling heterogeneous material flows. The objectives of this paper are to describe the EASETECH...

76 FR 80385 - Draft Environmental Impact Statement and Proposed Maricopa Sun Solar Complex Multi-Species...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-23

.... Operation related activities could include solar panel maintenance, on-site parking, operation of solar...-FXES11120800000F2-123] Draft Environmental Impact Statement and Proposed Maricopa Sun Solar Complex Multi-Species... National Environmental Policy Act for the proposed Maricopa Sun Solar Complex Habitat Conservation Plan...

Modeling Complex Time Limits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleg Svatos

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

Modeling Complex Systems

CERN Document Server

Boccara, Nino

2010-01-01

Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

Environmental Survey preliminary report, Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex, Piketon, Ohio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1987-08-01

This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex (PUEC), conducted August 4 through August 15, 1986. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Team specialists are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at PUEC, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by Argonne National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the PUEC Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the PUEC Survey. 55 refs., 22 figs., 21 tabs

Geo-inspired model: Agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental management (AVNG of water tributaries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edwin Eduardo Millán Rojas

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Context: Management to care for the environment and the Earth (geo can be source of inspiration for developing models that allow addressing complexity issues; the objective of this research was to develop an additional aspect of the inspired models. The geoinspired model has two features, the first covering aspects related to environmental management and the behavior of natural resources, and the second has a component of spatial location associated with existing objects on the Earth's surface. Method: The approach developed in the research is descriptive and its main objective is the representation or characterization of a case study within a particular context. Results: The result was the design of a model to emulate the natural behavior of the water tributaries of the Amazon foothills, in order to extend the application of the inspired models and allow the use of elements such as geo-referencing and environmental management. The proposed geoinspired model is called “natural vectors agents inspired in environmental management”. Conclusions: The agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental are polyform elements that can assume the behavior of environmental entities, which makes it possible to achieve progress in other fields of environmental management (use of soil, climate, flora, fauna, and link environmental issues with the structure of the proposed model.

Concept of Complex Environmental Monitoring Network - Vardzia Rock Cut City Case Study

Science.gov (United States)

Elashvili, Mikheil; Vacheishvili, Nikoloz; Margottini, Claudio; Basilaia, Giorgi; Chkhaidze, Davit; Kvavadze, Davit; Spizzichino, Daniele; Boscagli, Franceso; Kirkitadze, Giorgi; Adikashvili, Luka; Navrozashvili, Levan

2016-04-01

Vardzia represents an unique cultural heritage monument - rock cut city, which unites architectural monument and Natural-Geological complex. Such monuments are particularly vulnerable and their restoration and conservation requires complex approach. It is curved in various layers of volcanic tuffs and covers several hectares of area, with chronologically different segments of construction. This monument, as many similar monuments worldwide, is subjected to slow but permanent process of destruction, expressed in following factors: surface weathering of rock, active tectonics (aseismic displacement along the active faults and earthquakes), interaction between lithologically different rock layers, existence of major cracks and associated complex block structure, surface rainwater runoff and infiltrated ground water, temperature variations, etc. During its lifetime, Vardzia was heavily damaged by Historical Earthquake of 1283 and only partly restored afterwards. The technological progress together with the increased knowledge about ongoing environmental processes, established the common understanding that the complex monitoring of the environment represents the essential component for resolving such a principal issues, as: Proper management and prevention of natural disasters; Modeling of environmental processes, their short and long term prognosis; Monitoring of macro and micro climate; Safe functioning and preservation of important constructions. Research Center of Cultural Heritage and Environment of Ilia State University in cooperation with Experts from ISPRA, with the funding from the State agency of Cultural Heritage, has developed a concept of Vardzia complex monitoring network. Concept of the network includes: monitoring local meteorological conditions (meteorological station), monitoring microclimate in caves (temperature and humidity in the air and rock), monitoring microtremors and ambient seismic noise in Vardzia (local strong motion network), monitoring

Modeling Complex Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schreckenberg, M

2004-01-01

This book by Nino Boccara presents a compilation of model systems commonly termed as 'complex'. It starts with a definition of the systems under consideration and how to build up a model to describe the complex dynamics. The subsequent chapters are devoted to various categories of mean-field type models (differential and recurrence equations, chaos) and of agent-based models (cellular automata, networks and power-law distributions). Each chapter is supplemented by a number of exercises and their solutions. The table of contents looks a little arbitrary but the author took the most prominent model systems investigated over the years (and up until now there has been no unified theory covering the various aspects of complex dynamics). The model systems are explained by looking at a number of applications in various fields. The book is written as a textbook for interested students as well as serving as a comprehensive reference for experts. It is an ideal source for topics to be presented in a lecture on dynamics of complex systems. This is the first book on this 'wide' topic and I have long awaited such a book (in fact I planned to write it myself but this is much better than I could ever have written it!). Only section 6 on cellular automata is a little too limited to the author's point of view and one would have expected more about the famous Domany-Kinzel model (and more accurate citation!). In my opinion this is one of the best textbooks published during the last decade and even experts can learn a lot from it. Hopefully there will be an actualization after, say, five years since this field is growing so quickly. The price is too high for students but this, unfortunately, is the normal case today. Nevertheless I think it will be a great success! (book review)

Multiscale modeling of complex materials phenomenological, theoretical and computational aspects

CERN Document Server

Trovalusci, Patrizia

2014-01-01

The papers in this volume deal with materials science, theoretical mechanics and experimental and computational techniques at multiple scales, providing a sound base and a framework for many applications which are hitherto treated in a phenomenological sense. The basic principles are formulated of multiscale modeling strategies towards modern complex multiphase materials subjected to various types of mechanical, thermal loadings and environmental effects. The focus is on problems where mechanics is highly coupled with other concurrent physical phenomena. Attention is also focused on the historical origins of multiscale modeling and foundations of continuum mechanics currently adopted to model non-classical continua with substructure, for which internal length scales play a crucial role.

Use of a simplified pathways model to improve the environmental surveillance program at the radioactive waste management complex of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Case, M.J.; Rope, S.K.

1985-01-01

Systems analysis, including a simple pathways model based on first-order kinetics, is a useful way to design or improve environmental monitoring networks. This method allows investigators and administrators to consider interactions that may be occurring in the system and provides guidance in determining the need to collect data on various system components and processes. A simplified pathways model of radionuclide movement from low-level waste and transuranic waste buried at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex was developed (1) to identify critical pathways that should be monitored and (2) to identify key input parameters that need investigation by special studies. The model was modified from the Savannah River Laboratory DOSTOMAN code. Site-specific data were used in the model, if available. Physical and biological pathways include airborne and waterborne transport of surface soil, subsurface migration to the aquifer, waste container degradation, plant uptake, small mammal burrowing, and a few simplified food chain pathways. The model was run using a set of radionuclides determined to be significant in terms of relative hazard. Critical transport pathways which should be monitored were selected based on relative influence on model results. Key input parameters were identified for possible special studies by evaluating the sensitivity of model response to the parameters used to define transport pathways. A description of the approaches used and the guidance recommended to improve the environmental surveillance program are presented in this paper. 5 references, 1 figure, 2 tables

Environmental monitoring program for Itataia industrial complex before operational phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Condessa, M.L.M.B.

1982-01-01

This environmental monitoring program aims to characterize the environment in adjacent area of Itataia Industrial Complex. The places and frequencies of samples and measurements, as well as analysis and parameters to be measured in each type of samples are presented. (C.M.) [pt

Strategies for Evaluating Complex Environmental Education Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, V.

2011-12-01

Evidence for the effectiveness of environmental education programs has been difficult to establish for many reasons. Chief among them are the lack of clear program objectives and an inability to conceptualize how environmental education programs work. Both can lead to evaluations that make claims that are difficult to substantiate, such as significant changes in student achievement levels or behavioral changes based on acquisition of knowledge. Many of these challenges can be addressed by establishing the program theory and developing a logic model. However, claims of impact on larger societal outcomes are difficult to attribute solely to program activities. Contribution analysis may offer a promising method for addressing this challenge. Rather than attempt to definitively and causally link a program's activities to desired results, contribution analysis seeks to provide plausible evidence that can reduce uncertainty regarding the 'difference' a program is making to observed outcomes. It sets out to verify the theory of change behind a program and, at the same time, takes into consideration other influencing factors. Contribution analysis is useful in situations where the program is not experimental-there is little or no scope for varying how the program is implemented-and the program has been funded on the basis of a theory of change. In this paper, the author reviews the feasibility of using contribution analysis as a way of evaluating the impact of the GLOBE program, an environmental science and education program. Initially conceptualized by Al Gore in 1995, the program's implementation model is based on worldwide environmental monitoring by students and scientists around the globe. This paper will make a significant and timely contribution to the field of evaluation, and specifically environmental education evaluation by examining the usefulness of this analysis for developing evidence to assess the impact of environmental education programs.

Estimating the complexity of 3D structural models using machine learning methods

Science.gov (United States)

Mejía-Herrera, Pablo; Kakurina, Maria; Royer, Jean-Jacques

2016-04-01

Quantifying the complexity of 3D geological structural models can play a major role in natural resources exploration surveys, for predicting environmental hazards or for forecasting fossil resources. This paper proposes a structural complexity index which can be used to help in defining the degree of effort necessary to build a 3D model for a given degree of confidence, and also to identify locations where addition efforts are required to meet a given acceptable risk of uncertainty. In this work, it is considered that the structural complexity index can be estimated using machine learning methods on raw geo-data. More precisely, the metrics for measuring the complexity can be approximated as the difficulty degree associated to the prediction of the geological objects distribution calculated based on partial information on the actual structural distribution of materials. The proposed methodology is tested on a set of 3D synthetic structural models for which the degree of effort during their building is assessed using various parameters (such as number of faults, number of part in a surface object, number of borders, ...), the rank of geological elements contained in each model, and, finally, their level of deformation (folding and faulting). The results show how the estimated complexity in a 3D model can be approximated by the quantity of partial data necessaries to simulated at a given precision the actual 3D model without error using machine learning algorithms.

Environmental coupling and population dynamics in the PE545 light-harvesting complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aghtar, Mortaza; Kleinekathöfer, Ulrich, E-mail: u.kleinekathoefer@jacobs-university.de

2016-01-15

Long-lived quantum coherences have been shown experimentally in the Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complex of green sulfur bacteria as well as in the phycoerythrin 545 (PE545) photosynthetic antenna system of marine algae. A combination of classical molecular dynamics simulations, quantum chemistry and quantum dynamical calculations is employed to determine the excitation transfer dynamics in PE545. One key property of the light-harvesting system concerning the excitation transfer and dephasing phenomena is the spectral density. This quantity is determined from time series of the vertical excitation energies of the aggregate. In the present study we focus on the quantum dynamical simulations using the earlier QM/MM calculations as input. Employing an ensemble-averaged classical path-based wave packet dynamics, the excitation transfer dynamics between the different bilins in the PE545 complex is determined and analyzed. Furthermore, the nature of the environmental fluctuations determining the transfer dynamics is discussed. - Highlights: • Modeling of excitation energy transfer in the light-harvesting system PE545. • Combination of molecular dynamics simulations, quantum chemistry and quantum dynamics. • Spectral densities for bilins in the PE545 complex.

Development of a site specific environmental radiation assessment model for Youngkwang NPPs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Yang Geun; Song, Myung Jae; Shon, Soon Hwan; Shin, Sang Woon; Lee, Gap Bock; Yang, Kyung Hwa [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seong Pyung; Kim, Jeong Kyu; Shin, Dae Yoon; Kim, Hyun Ku; Lee, Kyung Jin [Chosun University, Kwangju (Korea, Republic of)

1996-12-31

During the normal operation of nuclear power plants, a very small amount of radionuclide materials is released to the environment. The radionuclide releases to the environment may give rise to some additional radiation dose through a number of pathways. With a few exception, radionuclide transports are highly dependent on the environmental conditions such as topological features, atmospheric and oceanic conditions and socio-environmental characteristics, etc. The dose calculation in Korea are presently being performed using the models in US NRC Reg. Guide. However, these models which were originally released by the US NRC in 1977 are inadequate to deal with environmental movement of radionuclides in consideration of complex terrain, tidal condition of the Yellow Sea, and Youngkwang site specific conditions. KEPRI has developed the models to consider the site specific characteristics around Youngkwang NPPs, to give the realistic dose assessment, and to improve assurance and reliability in public dose calculation. (author). 41 figs., 70 refs.

Animal Models of Autism: An Epigenetic and Environmental Viewpoint

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keiko Iwata

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder of social behavior, which is more common in males than in females. The causes of autism are unknown; there is evidence for a substantial genetic component, but it is likely that a combination of genetic, environmental and epigenetic factors contribute to its complex pathogenesis. Rodent models that mimic the behavioral deficits of autism can be useful tools for dissecting both the etiology and molecular mechanisms. This review discusses animal models of autism generated by prenatal or neonatal environmental challenges, including virus infection and exposure to valproic acid (VPA or stress. Studies of viral infection models suggest that interleukin-6 can influence fetal development and programming. Prenatal exposure to the histone deacetylase inhibitor VPA has been linked to autism in children, and male VPA-exposed rats exhibit a spectrum of autistic-like behaviors. The experience of prenatal stress produces male-specific behavioral abnormalities in rats. These effects may be mediated by epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation and histone acetylation resulting in alterations to the transcriptome.

Efficient Simulation Modeling of an Integrated High-Level-Waste Processing Complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, Michael V.; Paul, Pran K.

2000-01-01

An integrated computational tool named the Production Planning Model (ProdMod) has been developed to simulate the operation of the entire high-level-waste complex (HLW) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) over its full life cycle. ProdMod is used to guide SRS management in operating the waste complex in an economically efficient and environmentally sound manner. SRS HLW operations are modeled using coupled algebraic equations. The dynamic nature of plant processes is modeled in the form of a linear construct in which the time dependence is implicit. Batch processes are modeled in discrete event-space, while continuous processes are modeled in time-space. The ProdMod methodology maps between event-space and time-space such that the inherent mathematical discontinuities in batch process simulation are avoided without sacrificing any of the necessary detail in the batch recipe steps. Modeling the processes separately in event- and time-space using linear constructs, and then coupling the two spaces, has accelerated the speed of simulation compared to a typical dynamic simulation. The ProdMod simulator models have been validated against operating data and other computer codes. Case studies have demonstrated the usefulness of the ProdMod simulator in developing strategies that demonstrate significant cost savings in operating the SRS HLW complex and in verifying the feasibility of newly proposed processes

Characterising performance of environmental models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bennett, N.D.; Croke, B.F.W.; Guariso, G.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Hamilton, S.H.; Jakeman, A.J.; Marsili-Libelli, S.; Newham, L.T.H.; Norton, J.; Perrin, C.; Pierce, S.; Robson, B.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.; Fath, B.D.; Andreassian, V.

2013-01-01

In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus

Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

2015-10-01

Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

2013-01-01

an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

Clinical Complexity in Medicine: A Measurement Model of Task and Patient Complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, R; Weir, C; Del Fiol, G

2016-01-01

Complexity in medicine needs to be reduced to simple components in a way that is comprehensible to researchers and clinicians. Few studies in the current literature propose a measurement model that addresses both task and patient complexity in medicine. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to understand and measure clinical complexity by incorporating both task and patient complexity components focusing on the infectious disease domain. The measurement model was adapted and modified for the healthcare domain. Three clinical infectious disease teams were observed, audio-recorded and transcribed. Each team included an infectious diseases expert, one infectious diseases fellow, one physician assistant and one pharmacy resident fellow. The transcripts were parsed and the authors independently coded complexity attributes. This baseline measurement model of clinical complexity was modified in an initial set of coding processes and further validated in a consensus-based iterative process that included several meetings and email discussions by three clinical experts from diverse backgrounds from the Department of Biomedical Informatics at the University of Utah. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen's kappa. The proposed clinical complexity model consists of two separate components. The first is a clinical task complexity model with 13 clinical complexity-contributing factors and 7 dimensions. The second is the patient complexity model with 11 complexity-contributing factors and 5 dimensions. The measurement model for complexity encompassing both task and patient complexity will be a valuable resource for future researchers and industry to measure and understand complexity in healthcare.

Complex matrix model duality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, T.W.

2010-11-01

The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

Complex matrix model duality

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, T.W.

2010-11-15

The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A modeling framework for water- and environmental-resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.

2004-01-01

The interdisciplinary nature and increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require the use of modeling approaches that can incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific disciplines. The large number of distributed hydrological and ecosystem models currently available are composed of a variety of different conceptualizations of the associated processes they simulate. Assessment of the capabilities of these distributed models requires evaluation of the conceptualizations of the individual processes, and the identification of which conceptualizations are most appropriate for various combinations of criteria, such as problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application. With this knowledge, "optimal" models for specific sets of criteria can be created and applied. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System (MMS) is an integrated system of computer software that has been developed to provide these model development and application capabilities. MMS supports the integration of models and tools at a variety of levels of modular design. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully-integrated decision support systems. A variety of visualization and statistical tools are also provided. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, under a joint USGS-BOR program called the Watershed and River System Management Program. MMS and RiverWare are linked using a shared relational database. The resulting database-centered decision support system provides tools for evaluating and applying optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. Management issues being addressed include efficiency of water-resources management, environmental concerns such as meeting flow needs for

Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

Science.gov (United States)

Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

2007-01-01

We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

Simulation in Complex Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

2017-01-01

This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

Environmental study of the waters of Mandovi - Zuari estuarine complex, Goa

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Singbal, S.Y.S.

variations of some environmental parameters at different stations at surface and bottom waters of complex were studied during 1972-73, 1975 and 1977-78. In general, weak thermal stratification is developed at some stations during monsoon and post...

The animal sensorimotor organization: a challenge for the environmental complexity thesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Keijzer, Fred; Arnellos, Argyris

2017-01-01

Godfrey-Smith's environmental complexity thesis (ECT) is most often applied to multicellular animals and the complexity of their macroscopic environments to explain how cognition evolved. We think that the ECT may be less suited to explain the origins of the animal bodily organization, including this organization's potentiality for dealing with complex macroscopic environments. We argue that acquiring the fundamental sensorimotor features of the animal body may be better explained as a consequence of dealing with internal bodily-rather than environmental complexity. To press and elucidate this option, we develop the notion of an animal sensorimotor organization (ASMO) that derives from an internal coordination account for the evolution of early nervous systems. The ASMO notion is a reply to the question how a collection of single cells can become integrated such that the resulting multicellular organization becomes sensitive to and can manipulate macroscopic features of both the animal body and its environment. In this account, epithelial contractile tissues play the central role in the organization behind complex animal bodies. In this paper, we relate the ASMO concept to recent work on epithelia, which provides empirical evidence that supports central assumptions behind the ASMO notion. Second, we discuss to what extent the notion applies to basic animal architectures, exemplified by sponges and jellyfish. We conclude that the features exhibited by the ASMO are plausibly explained by internal constraints acting on and within this multicellular organization, providing a challenge for the role the ECT plays in this context.

Detecting drawdowns masked by environmental stresses with water-level models

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, C.A.; Halford, K.J.; Fenelon, J.M.

2013-01-01

Detecting and quantifying small drawdown at observation wells distant from the pumping well greatly expands the characterized aquifer volume. However, this detection is often obscured by water level fluctuations such as barometric and tidal effects. A reliable analytical approach for distinguishing drawdown from nonpumping water-level fluctuations is presented and tested here. Drawdown is distinguished by analytically simulating all pumping and nonpumping water-level stresses simultaneously during the period of record. Pumping signals are generated with Theis models, where the pumping schedule is translated into water-level change with the Theis solution. This approach closely matched drawdowns simulated with a complex three-dimensional, hypothetical model and reasonably estimated drawdowns from an aquifer test conducted in a complex hydrogeologic system. Pumping-induced changes generated with a numerical model and analytical Theis model agreed (RMS as low as 0.007 m) in cases where pumping signals traveled more than 1 km across confining units and fault structures. Maximum drawdowns of about 0.05 m were analytically estimated from field investigations where environmental fluctuations approached 0.2 m during the analysis period.

A consensus for the development of a vector model to assess clinical complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Corazza, Gino Roberto; Klersy, Catherine; Formagnana, Pietro; Lenti, Marco Vincenzo; Padula, Donatella

2017-12-01

The progressive rise in multimorbidity has made management of complex patients one of the most topical and challenging issues in medicine, both in clinical practice and for healthcare organizations. To make this easier, a score of clinical complexity (CC) would be useful. A vector model to evaluate biological and extra-biological (socio-economic, cultural, behavioural, environmental) domains of CC was proposed a few years ago. However, given that the variables that grade each domain had never been defined, this model has never been used in clinical practice. To overcome these limits, a consensus meeting was organised to grade each domain of CC, and to establish the hierarchy of the domains. A one-day consensus meeting consisting of a multi-professional panel of 25 people was held at our Hospital. In a preliminary phase, the proponents selected seven variables as qualifiers for each of the five above-mentioned domains. In the course of the meeting, the panel voted for five variables considered to be the most representative for each domain. Consensus was established with 2/3 agreement, and all variables were dichotomised. Finally, the various domains were parametrized and ranked within a feasible vector model. A Clinical Complexity Index was set up using the chosen variables. All the domains were graphically represented through a vector model: the biological domain was chosen as the most significant (highest slope), followed by the behavioural and socio-economic domains (intermediate slope), and lastly by the cultural and environmental ones (lowest slope). A feasible and comprehensive tool to evaluate CC in clinical practice is proposed herein.

Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

2012-01-01

The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

Web mapping system for complex processing and visualization of environmental geospatial datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor

2016-04-01

Environmental geospatial datasets (meteorological observations, modeling and reanalysis results, etc.) are used in numerous research applications. Due to a number of objective reasons such as inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets, big dataset volume, complexity of data models used, syntactic and semantic differences that complicate creation and use of unified terminology, the development of environmental geodata access, processing and visualization services as well as client applications turns out to be quite a sophisticated task. According to general INSPIRE requirements to data visualization geoportal web applications have to provide such standard functionality as data overview, image navigation, scrolling, scaling and graphical overlay, displaying map legends and corresponding metadata information. It should be noted that modern web mapping systems as integrated geoportal applications are developed based on the SOA and might be considered as complexes of interconnected software tools for working with geospatial data. In the report a complex web mapping system including GIS web client and corresponding OGC services for working with geospatial (NetCDF, PostGIS) dataset archive is presented. There are three basic tiers of the GIS web client in it: 1. Tier of geospatial metadata retrieved from central MySQL repository and represented in JSON format 2. Tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods handling: --- NetCDF metadata --- Task XML object for configuring user calculations, input and output formats --- OGC WMS/WFS cartographical services 3. Graphical user interface (GUI) tier representing JavaScript objects realizing web application business logic Metadata tier consists of a number of JSON objects containing technical information describing geospatial datasets (such as spatio-temporal resolution, meteorological parameters, valid processing methods, etc). The middleware tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods for handling geospatial

Mapping the environmental and biogeographic complexity of the Amazon basin using remote sensing methods

Science.gov (United States)

Streher, A. S.; Cordeiro, C. L. O.; Silva, T. S. F.

2017-12-01

Mapping environmental envelopes onto geographical space has been classically important for understanding biogeographical patterns. Knowing the biotic and abiotic limits defining these envelopes, we can better understand the requirements limiting species distributions. Most present efforts in this regard have focused on single-species distribution models, but the current breadth and accessibility of quantitative, spatially explicit environmental information can also be explored from an environment-first perspective. We thus used remote sensing to determine the occurrence of environmental discontinuities in the Amazon region and evaluated if such discontinuities may act as barriers to determine species distribution and range limits, forming clear environmental envelopes. We combined data on topography (SRTM), precipitation (CHIRPS), vegetation descriptors (PALSAR-1 backscattering, biomass, NDVI) and temperature (MODIS), using object-based image analysis and unsupervised learning to map environmental envelopes. We identified 14 environmental envelopes for the Amazon sensu latissimo region, mainly delimited by changes in vegetation, topography and precipitation. The resulting envelopes were compared to the distribution of 120 species of Trogonidae, Galbulidae, Bucconidae, Cebidae, Hylidae and Lecythidaceae, amounting to 22,649 occurrence records within the Amazonregion. We determined species prevalence in each envelope by calculating the ratio between species relative frequency per envelope and envelope relative frequency (area) in the complete map. Values closer to 1 indicate a high degree of prevalence. We found strong envelope associations (prevalence > 0.5) for 20 species (17% of analyzed taxa). Although several biogeographical and ecological factors will influence the distribution of a species, our results show that not only geographical barriers, but also modern environmental discontinuities may limit the distribution of some species., and may have also done so

satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex environmental ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

IICBA01

Greenhouse-gas-induced temperature increase is one of the main reasons of ... The relation between altitude and density is a fairly complex exponential that has been ... in to ocean by which water becomes acidic also when water is heated it ...

The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fabian M Patricia

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%, which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens

Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

Science.gov (United States)

Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

2017-03-01

Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A system for environmental protection. Reference dose models for fauna and flora

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pentreath, R.J.; Woodhead, D.S.

2000-01-01

Ideas have already been published on how the current problems relating to environmental protection could be explicitly addressed. One of the basic cornerstones of the proposed system is that of the use of reference dose models for fauna and flora, in a manner analogous to those used for the human species. The concept is that, for a number of both aquatic and terrestrial fauna and flora types, 'reference' dose models, and dose per unit (internal and external) exposure tables, could be compiled. These would then be used to draw broad conclusions on the likely effects for such organisms in relation to three broad environment end points of concern: life shortening; impairment of reproductive capacity; and scorable, cytogenetic damage. The level of complexity of the dose models needs to be commensurate with the morphological complexity of the modelled organism, its size, and the data bases which are either available or could be reasonably obtained. The most basic models considered are either solid ellipsoids or spheres, with fixed dimensions. Secondary models contain internal, but relatively simple geometric features representative of those key organs or tissues for which more precise estimates of dose are required. Their level of complexity is also a function of different internal and external sources of radiation, and expected differences in radiosensitivities. Tertiary models -of greater complexity- are only considered to be of value for higher vertebrates. The potential derivation and use of all three sets of models is briefly discussed. (author)

Expert views on scientific policy advice on complex environmental health issues

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Spruijt, P.

2016-01-01

Fact-based policies grounded in solid uncontested scientific evidence: this may sound as the ideal relation between science and policy. However, this ideal rarely holds for complex environmental health risks. When scientific knowledge is contested or incomplete, scientists can take different roles

Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

2015-06-01

Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

Proceedings of the international symposium on environmental modeling and radioecology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Ueda, Shinji; Kakiuchi, Hideki; Akata, Naofumi

2007-03-01

Environmental models using radioecological parameters are essential for predicting the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. Due to the complex behaviors of radionuclides in the environment, simplified models and parameters with ample margins are used for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities to ensure the safety of people in the surrounding area. As a consequence, radiation exposure doses from the radionuclides have generally been overestimated. Information with more precise predictions of the fate of the radionuclides in the environment and realistic radiation dose estimates are necessary for the public acceptance of nuclear facilities. Realistic dose estimates require continuous improvement of the models and their parameters as well as using state of the art modeling techniques and radioecological knowledge. The first commercial nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been built in Rokkasho, Aomori, and the Institute for Environmental Sciences was established for the purpose of assessing the effects of radionuclides released from the plant. Test runs by the plant using actual spent nuclear fuel began in March 2006. With commercial operation soon to begin, there is increasing concern regarding the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. This was a good time to hold a symposium here in Rokkasho to discuss recent progress in the field of environmental modeling and studies of the behaviors of radionuclides in the environment. The exchange of up-to-date information between modelers and experiments was an important aspect of the symposium. The symposium featured 26 oral lectures and 32 poster presentations. The 57 of the presented papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

Interacting with complex systems. Models and games for a sustainable economy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

De Vries, H.J.M.

2010-09-15

In the last decades the science-policy interface has become more important and more complex too. In this report we search for novel ways to extend or reframe the economic and environmental theories and models upon which policy recommendations are, or should be, based. The methods and applications of Complex System Science, in particular, have been explored and are found to be still fragmented. But they certainly can and should form the basis for introducing behavioural and innovation dynamics which make these theories and models more like what happens in the real world. In combination with interactive simulation and games, of which some examples are discussed in this report, science can in a post-modern context contribute more effectively to the strategic decision making in government and other institutions regarding sustainable development. This will direly be needed in view of the new and global challenges facing us.

Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shaeffer, D.L.

1979-08-01

A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

2008-01-01

A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

Modeling the Land Use/Cover Change in an Arid Region Oasis City Constrained by Water Resource and Environmental Policy Change using Cellular Automata Model

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, X.; Li, X.; Lu, L.

2017-12-01

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important subject in the research of global environmental change and sustainable development, while spatial simulation on land use/cover change is one of the key content of LUCC and is also difficult due to the complexity of the system. The cellular automata (CA) model had an irreplaceable role in simulating of land use/cover change process due to the powerful spatial computing power. However, the majority of current CA land use/cover models were binary-state model that could not provide more general information about the overall spatial pattern of land use/cover change. Here, a multi-state logistic-regression-based Markov cellular automata (MLRMCA) model and a multi-state artificial-neural-network-based Markov cellular automata (MANNMCA) model were developed and were used to simulate complex land use/cover evolutionary process in an arid region oasis city constrained by water resource and environmental policy change, the Zhangye city during the period of 1990-2010. The results indicated that the MANNMCA model was superior to MLRMCA model in simulated accuracy. These indicated that by combining the artificial neural network with CA could more effectively capture the complex relationships between the land use/cover change and a set of spatial variables. Although the MLRMCA model were also some advantages, the MANNMCA model was more appropriate for simulating complex land use/cover dynamics. The two proposed models were effective and reliable, and could reflect the spatial evolution of regional land use/cover changes. These have also potential implications for the impact assessment of water resources, ecological restoration, and the sustainable urban development in arid areas.

Surface Complexation Modeling in Variable Charge Soils: Charge Characterization by Potentiometric Titration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuliano Marchi

2015-10-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants of 17 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from potentiometric titration measuring the adsorption of H+ and OH− on amphoteric surfaces in suspensions of varying ionic strength. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. The former was fitted by calculating total site concentration from curve fitting estimates and pH-extrapolation of the intrinsic equilibrium constants to the PZNPC (hand calculation, considering one and two reactive sites, and by the FITEQL software. The latter was fitted only by FITEQL, with one reactive site. Soil chemical and physical properties were correlated to the intrinsic equilibrium constants. Both surface complexation models satisfactorily fit our experimental data, but for results at low ionic strength, optimization did not converge in FITEQL. Data were incorporated in Visual MINTEQ and they provide a modeling system that can predict protonation-dissociation reactions in the soil surface under changing environmental conditions.

A general procedure to generate models for urban environmental-noise pollution using feature selection and machine learning methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Torija, Antonio J; Ruiz, Diego P

2015-02-01

The prediction of environmental noise in urban environments requires the solution of a complex and non-linear problem, since there are complex relationships among the multitude of variables involved in the characterization and modelling of environmental noise and environmental-noise magnitudes. Moreover, the inclusion of the great spatial heterogeneity characteristic of urban environments seems to be essential in order to achieve an accurate environmental-noise prediction in cities. This problem is addressed in this paper, where a procedure based on feature-selection techniques and machine-learning regression methods is proposed and applied to this environmental problem. Three machine-learning regression methods, which are considered very robust in solving non-linear problems, are used to estimate the energy-equivalent sound-pressure level descriptor (LAeq). These three methods are: (i) multilayer perceptron (MLP), (ii) sequential minimal optimisation (SMO), and (iii) Gaussian processes for regression (GPR). In addition, because of the high number of input variables involved in environmental-noise modelling and estimation in urban environments, which make LAeq prediction models quite complex and costly in terms of time and resources for application to real situations, three different techniques are used to approach feature selection or data reduction. The feature-selection techniques used are: (i) correlation-based feature-subset selection (CFS), (ii) wrapper for feature-subset selection (WFS), and the data reduction technique is principal-component analysis (PCA). The subsequent analysis leads to a proposal of different schemes, depending on the needs regarding data collection and accuracy. The use of WFS as the feature-selection technique with the implementation of SMO or GPR as regression algorithm provides the best LAeq estimation (R(2)=0.94 and mean absolute error (MAE)=1.14-1.16 dB(A)). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

2016-01-01

This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model. Nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions, value capture methods, and barriers to market entry are analysed. This analysis defines 'complex value' as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector. The process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers, commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets; to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system. - Highlights: •Business models of energy supply markets shape energy transitions. •The British system misses four opportunities of local electricity supply. •Nine new business model archetypes of local supply are analysed. •New electricity business models have complex value propositions. •A process for policy response to business model innovation is presented.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises.

Science.gov (United States)

Chakraborty, Subrata; Mengersen, Kerrie; Fidge, Colin; Ma, Lin; Lassen, David

2015-01-01

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control. PMID:26247591

Environmental radioactivity at the heat power complex enterprises

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krylov, D.A.; Putintseva, V.E.

1997-01-01

Environmental radioactivity at the heat power complex enterprises (coal mines, oil and gas deposits, coal thermal power plants and heat-electric generation plant) is considered. IT is shown that elevated level of radiation effect on the personnel lungs (2-3 times higher than that of safety standard) is observed at 80 coal mines. High levels of gamma radiation from natural radionuclides (300 μR/h and above) are marked at the separate objects of oil and gas mining industry. It is revealed that the contamination of ash wastes resulted from certain coals combustion reaches 520 Bq/kg at separate thermal power plants

Modelling the structure of complex networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Herlau, Tue

networks has been independently studied as mathematical objects in their own right. As such, there has been both an increased demand for statistical methods for complex networks as well as a quickly growing mathematical literature on the subject. In this dissertation we explore aspects of modelling complex....... The next chapters will treat some of the various symmetries, representer theorems and probabilistic structures often deployed in the modelling complex networks, the construction of sampling methods and various network models. The introductory chapters will serve to provide context for the included written...

Evaluating the Environmental Fate of Short-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins (SCCPs) in the Nordic Environment Using a Dynamic Multimedia Model

OpenAIRE

Krogseth, Ingjerd Sunde; Breivik, Knut; Arnot, Jon A; Wania, Frank; Borgen, Anders; Schlabach, Martin

2013-01-01

Short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) raise concerns due to their potential for persistence, bioaccumulation, long-range transport and adverse effects. An understanding of their environmental fate remains limited, partly due to the complexity of the mixture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a mechanistic, integrated, dynamic environmental fate and bioaccumulation multimedia model (CoZMoMAN) can reconcile what is known about environmental emissions and human exposure of SC...

SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

Science.gov (United States)

Jacques, Diederik

2017-04-01

As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different

Energy and complex industrial systems environmental emissions data reporting and acquisition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moskowitz, P.D.; Hamilton, L.D.

1987-07-01

The Joint International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), UNEP and WHO Project on Assessing and Managing Health and Environmental risks from Energy and Other Complex Technologies intends to complile emissions data for mportant energy systems and other complex technologies from a wide variety of countries. To facilitate data generation and compilation, this report: outlines data reporting protocols; identifies potential information sources; demonstrates how to estimate coefficients; presents some compiled US emission coefficients or criteria air pollutants for some energy process; and, compares national air emission standards for electricity generating plants in OECD member countries. 27 refs., 2 fis., 1 tabs

Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

CERN Document Server

Sun, Ne-Zheng

2015-01-01

This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Scott B.

2000-01-01

"What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

Integrated and spatially explicit modelling of the economic value of complex environmental change and its indirect effects

OpenAIRE

Bateman, Ian; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Posen, Paulette

2012-01-01

Arguably the greatest challenge to contemporary research is to capture the inter-relatedness and complexity of the real world environment within models so at to better inform decision makers of the accurate and complete consequences of differing options. The paper presents an integrated model of the consequence of climate change upon land use and the secondary and subsequent effects arising subsequently. The model predicts the shift in land use which climate change is likely to induce and the...

Updating the debate on model complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.

2012-01-01

As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

A data model for environmental scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Kapeljushnik, O.; Beran, B.; Valentine, D.; van Ingen, C.; Zaslavsky, I.; Whitenack, T.

2008-12-01

Environmental science encompasses a wide range of disciplines from water chemistry to microbiology, ecology and atmospheric sciences. Studies often require working across disciplines which differ in their ways of describing and storing data such that it is not possible to devise a monolithic one-size-fits-all data solution. Based on our experiences with Consortium of the Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science Inc. (CUAHSI) Observations Data Model, Berkeley Water Center FLUXNET carbon-climate work and by examining standards like EPA's Water Quality Exchange (WQX), we have developed a flexible data model that allows extensions without need to altering the schema such that scientists can define custom metadata elements to describe their data including observations, analysis methods as well as sensors and geographical features. The data model supports various types of observations including fixed point and moving sensors, bottled samples, rasters from remote sensors and models, and categorical descriptions (e.g. taxonomy) by employing user-defined-types when necessary. It leverages ADO .NET Entity Framework to provide the semantic data models for differing disciplines, while maintaining a common schema below the entity layer. This abstraction layer simplifies data retrieval and manipulation by hiding the logic and complexity of the relational schema from users thus allows programmers and scientists to deal directly with objects such as observations, sensors, watersheds, river reaches, channel cross-sections, laboratory analysis methods and samples as opposed to table joins, columns and rows.

Energy and externality environmental regional model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

2000-01-01

The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

Environmental impacts assessment: Instruments for environmental policy making and resource management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cavelli, C.M.; Sartori, S.

1993-06-01

This review of evaluation criteria for environmental impacts assessments in Italy covers the following aspects: the efficacy of current Italian normatives governing assessment methods, the current approach of regional public administrations, the necessity for the creation of a national regulating board, environmental impacts assessment for complex environmental systems, the application of impacts assessment recommendations to resource development modelling in the planning of integrated environmental-economic systems, the involvement of the general public in decision making, techniques to determine the monetary worth of environmental resources, the use of multi-criteria analysis techniques

Communication models in environmental health.

Science.gov (United States)

Guidotti, Tee L

2013-01-01

Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

Testing of Environmental Satellite Bus-Instrument Interfaces Using Engineering Models

Science.gov (United States)

Gagnier, Donald; Hayner, Rick; Nosek, Thomas; Roza, Michael; Hendershot, James E.; Razzaghi, Andrea I.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses the formulation and execution of a laboratory test of the electrical interfaces between multiple atmospheric scientific instruments and the spacecraft bus that carries them. The testing, performed in 2002, used engineering models of the instruments and the Aura spacecraft bus electronics. Aura is one of NASA s Earth Observatory System missions. The test was designed to evaluate the complex interfaces in the command and data handling subsystems prior to integration of the complete flight instruments on the spacecraft. A problem discovered during the flight integration phase of the observatory can cause significant cost and schedule impacts. The tests successfully revealed problems and led to their resolution before the full-up integration phase, saving significant cost and schedule. This approach could be beneficial for future environmental satellite programs involving the integration of multiple, complex scientific instruments onto a spacecraft bus.

Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data......, many of which have been used by the European Environment Agency in its recent environmental assessments and reports, a limited number of which are described in more detail. This review identifies gaps in the availability, accessibility and applicability of current modelling tools, and stresses the need...

Coproducts performances in biorefineries: Development of Claiming-based allocation models for environmental policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gnansounou, Edgard

2018-04-01

This study revisited the fundamentals of allocation to joint products and proposed new models for allocating common greenhouse gases emissions among coproducts of biorefineries. These emissions may account for more than 80% of the total emissions of greenhouse gases of the biorefineries. The proposed models optimize the reward of coproducts for their compliance to environmental requirements. They were illustrated by a case study of wheat straw biorefinery built on the literature. Several scenarios were considered with regard to the grain yield, field emissions of greenhouse gases, allocation between grain and straw and policy requirements. The results conform to the expectations and are sensitive to the policy targets and to the environmental performance of the counterpart system. Further research works are necessary to achieve a full application to complex processes. However, the proposed models are promising towards assessing the simultaneous compliance of coproducts of a biorefinery to environment policy requirements. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

Science.gov (United States)

Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

1988-01-01

Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

Student Learning of Complex Earth Systems: A Model to Guide Development of Student Expertise in Problem-Solving

Science.gov (United States)

Holder, Lauren N.; Scherer, Hannah H.; Herbert, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

Engaging students in problem-solving concerning environmental issues in near-surface complex Earth systems involves developing student conceptualization of the Earth as a system and applying that scientific knowledge to the problems using practices that model those used by professionals. In this article, we review geoscience education research…

PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Domijan, Mirela; Brown, Paul E; Shulgin, Boris V; Rand, David A

2016-03-10

signalling systems. It allows for simulation and analysis of models under a variety of environmental conditions and for experimental optimisation of complex combined experiments. With its unique set of tools it makes a valuable addition to the current library of sensitivity analysis toolboxes. We believe that this software will be of great use to the wider biological, systems biology and modelling communities.

Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paul Cilliers

2013-09-01

Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

Sutherland models for complex reflection groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crampe, N.; Young, C.A.S.

2008-01-01

There are known to be integrable Sutherland models associated to every real root system, or, which is almost equivalent, to every real reflection group. Real reflection groups are special cases of complex reflection groups. In this paper we associate certain integrable Sutherland models to the classical family of complex reflection groups. Internal degrees of freedom are introduced, defining dynamical spin chains, and the freezing limit taken to obtain static chains of Haldane-Shastry type. By considering the relation of these models to the usual BC N case, we are led to systems with both real and complex reflection groups as symmetries. We demonstrate their integrability by means of new Dunkl operators, associated to wreath products of dihedral groups

The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

2018-03-27

Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

Environmental Implementation Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The purpose of the Environmental Implementation Plan (EIP) is to show the current and future (five years) environmental plans from individual site organizations and divisions, as well as site environmental programs and initiatives which are designed to protect the environment and meet or exceed changing environmental/regulatory requirements. Communicating with site organizations, departments, and committees is essential in making the site's environmental-planning process work. The EIP gives the site the what, when, how, and why for environmental requirements. Through teamwork and proactive planning, a partnership for environmental excellence is formed to achieve the site vision for SRS to become the recognized model for Environmental Excellence in the Department of Energy's Nuclear Weapons Complex

Environmental Implementation Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-15

The purpose of the Environmental Implementation Plan (EIP) is to show the current and future (five years) environmental plans from individual site organizations and divisions, as well as site environmental programs and initiatives which are designed to protect the environment and meet or exceed changing environmental/regulatory requirements. Communicating with site organizations, departments, and committees is essential in making the site's environmental-planning process work. The EIP gives the site the what, when, how, and why for environmental requirements. Through teamwork and proactive planning, a partnership for environmental excellence is formed to achieve the site vision for SRS to become the recognized model for Environmental Excellence in the Department of Energy's Nuclear Weapons Complex.

Environmental Implementation Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-15

The purpose of the Environmental Implementation Plan (EIP) is to show the current and future (five years) environmental plans from individual site organizations and divisions, as well as site environmental programs and initiatives which are designed to protect the environment and meet or exceed changing environmental/regulatory requirements. Communicating with site organizations, departments, and committees is essential in making the site`s environmental-planning process work. The EIP gives the site the what, when, how, and why for environmental requirements. Through teamwork and proactive planning, a partnership for environmental excellence is formed to achieve the site vision for SRS to become the recognized model for Environmental Excellence in the Department of Energy`s Nuclear Weapons Complex.

Generic models and parameters for assessing the environmental transfer of radionuclides from routine releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1982-01-01

This report is addressed to national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses, in particular for generic assessments of doses to most exposed individuals from routine releases of radioactive effluents to atmospheric and aquatic environments. The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect, in which actions and reactions are coupled in a complex but predictable manner, have led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which tries to forecast probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that attempt to describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision-making process

Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

2016-11-29

Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO₂ and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

Health effects of environmental pollution in population living near industrial complex areas in Korea.

Science.gov (United States)

Eom, Sang-Yong; Choi, Jonghyuk; Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Ji-Ae; Kim, Guen-Bae; Yu, Seung-Do; Kim, Yangho; Lim, Hyun-Sul; Son, Bu-Soon; Paek, Domyung; Kim, Yong-Dae; Kim, Heon; Ha, Mina; Kwon, Ho-Jang

2018-01-01

Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between environmental pollution and various health conditions in individuals residing in industrial complexes. To evaluate the effects of pollution from industrial complex on human health, we performed a pooled analysis of environmental epidemiologic monitoring data for residents living near national industrial complexes in Korea. The respiratory and allergic symptoms and the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, including cancer, were used as the outcome variables for health effects. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between exposure to pollution from industrial complexes and health conditions. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, occupational exposure, level of education, and body mass index, the residents near the industrial complexes were found to have more respiratory symptoms, such as cough (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.31) and sputum production (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.24), and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20). Among residents of the industrial complexes, the prevalence of acute eye disorders was approximately 40% higher (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.84) and the prevalence of lung and uterine cancer was 3.45 times and 1.88 times higher, respectively, than those among residents of the control area. This study showed that residents living in the vicinity of industrial complexes have a high risk of acute and chronic diseases including respiratory and allergic conditions. These results can be used as basic objective data for developing health management measures for individuals residing near industrial complexes.

Health effects of environmental pollution in population living near industrial complex areas in Korea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang-Yong Eom

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between environmental pollution and various health conditions in individuals residing in industrial complexes. To evaluate the effects of pollution from industrial complex on human health, we performed a pooled analysis of environmental epidemiologic monitoring data for residents living near national industrial complexes in Korea. The respiratory and allergic symptoms and the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, including cancer, were used as the outcome variables for health effects. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between exposure to pollution from industrial complexes and health conditions. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, occupational exposure, level of education, and body mass index, the residents near the industrial complexes were found to have more respiratory symptoms, such as cough (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.31 and sputum production (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.24, and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20. Among residents of the industrial complexes, the prevalence of acute eye disorders was approximately 40% higher (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.84 and the prevalence of lung and uterine cancer was 3.45 times and 1.88 times higher, respectively, than those among residents of the control area. This study showed that residents living in the vicinity of industrial complexes have a high risk of acute and chronic diseases including respiratory and allergic conditions. These results can be used as basic objective data for developing health management measures for individuals residing near industrial complexes.

The environmental zero-point problem in evolutionary reaction norm modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ergon, Rolf

2018-04-01

There is a potential problem in present quantitative genetics evolutionary modeling based on reaction norms. Such models are state-space models, where the multivariate breeder's equation in some form is used as the state equation that propagates the population state forward in time. These models use the implicit assumption of a constant reference environment, in many cases set to zero. This zero-point is often the environment a population is adapted to, that is, where the expected geometric mean fitness is maximized. Such environmental reference values follow from the state of the population system, and they are thus population properties. The environment the population is adapted to, is, in other words, an internal population property, independent of the external environment. It is only when the external environment coincides with the internal reference environment, or vice versa, that the population is adapted to the current environment. This is formally a result of state-space modeling theory, which is an important theoretical basis for evolutionary modeling. The potential zero-point problem is present in all types of reaction norm models, parametrized as well as function-valued, and the problem does not disappear when the reference environment is set to zero. As the environmental reference values are population characteristics, they ought to be modeled as such. Whether such characteristics are evolvable is an open question, but considering the complexity of evolutionary processes, such evolvability cannot be excluded without good arguments. As a straightforward solution, I propose to model the reference values as evolvable mean traits in their own right, in addition to other reaction norm traits. However, solutions based on an evolvable G matrix are also possible.

Public communication on times of environmental crisis. The opening of San Rafael 's uranium complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvino, Carlos; Cisneros, Martin

2008-01-01

Full text: Argentina has had a lot of cultural changes in the last few years. An environmental movement has gathered and is trying to stop the opening of the Sierra Pintada uranium complex, near the city of San Rafael, in the south of Mendoza province. Since 2005, several 'groundless information' have been published in the local media about the dangers of this re-opening. These news exaggerate the properties of radon gas, claiming that it will reach San Rafael city (20 miles from the complex), rising radiological risk among the population, etc. This scene shows a 'non-real' picture of the regulatory activities that the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN), a government agency that regulates nuclear facilities in Argentina, is really and systematically accomplishing. In this situation, the board of Directors of ARN decided to entrust a full analysis of the environmental issue in the area. The Office of Press and Communication implemented a local communication plan, using a Strategic and Systemic tool kit. The period to be analyzed is from second semester 2005 to February 2007. A little bit of history: the San Rafael Complex started in September 20 of 1979. It belongs to the National Commission of Atomic Energy (CNEA), a government agency. Until its temporary suspension in 1995 for international market reasons (uranium price was U$S 10 / pound), almost 2 million tons of uranium were processed. Besides its temporary suspension, the ARN has been constantly monitoring this particular former complex. In the year 2001, CNEA notices that the uranium price starts to rise and entrust National Technology University, Avellaneda Branch, to accomplish an Environmental Impact Report, according to the argentine law 25.585. Due especially to the rising of uranium price, (actually, the uranium price is approximately U$S 200) the national government determined to restart the extraction of the mineral again. By the year 2004, with the results of the Environmental Impact report, CNEA

Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Yu-Long

2012-01-01

Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

Information, complexity and efficiency: The automobile model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Allenby, B. [Lucent Technologies (United States)]|[Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

1996-08-08

The new, rapidly evolving field of industrial ecology - the objective, multidisciplinary study of industrial and economic systems and their linkages with fundamental natural systems - provides strong ground for believing that a more environmentally and economically efficient economy will be more information intensive and complex. Information and intellectual capital will be substituted for the more traditional inputs of materials and energy in producing a desirable, yet sustainable, quality of life. While at this point this remains a strong hypothesis, the evolution of the automobile industry can be used to illustrate how such substitution may, in fact, already be occurring in an environmentally and economically critical sector.

Environmental influences on neural systems of relational complexity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Layne eKalbfleisch

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Constructivist learning theory contends that we construct knowledge by experience and that environmental context influences learning. To explore this principle, we examined the cognitive process relational complexity (RC, defined as the number of visual dimensions considered during problem solving on a matrix reasoning task and a well-documented measure of mature reasoning capacity. We sought to determine how the visual environment influences RC by examining the influence of color and visual contrast on RC in a neuroimaging task. To specify the contributions of sensory demand and relational integration to reasoning, our participants performed a non-verbal matrix task comprised of color, no-color line, or black-white visual contrast conditions parametrically varied by complexity (relations 0, 1, 2. The use of matrix reasoning is ecologically valid for its psychometric relevance and for its potential to link the processing of psychophysically specific visual properties with various levels of relational complexity during reasoning. The role of these elements is important because matrix tests assess intellectual aptitude based on these seemingly context-less exercises. This experiment is a first step toward examining the psychophysical underpinnings of performance on these types of problems. The importance of this is increased in light of recent evidence that intelligence can be linked to visual discrimination. We submit three main findings. First, color and black-white visual contrast add demand at a basic sensory level, but contributions from color and from black-white visual contrast are dissociable in cortex such that color engages a reasoning heuristic and black-white visual contrast engages a sensory heuristic. Second, color supports contextual sense-making by boosting salience resulting in faster problem solving. Lastly, when visual complexity reaches 2-relations, color and visual contrast relinquish salience to other dimensions of problem

Optimizing the Regional Industrial Structure Based on the Environmental Carrying Capacity: An Inexact Fuzzy Multi-Objective Programming Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenyi Wang

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An inexact fuzzy multi-objective programming model (IFMOP based on the environmental carrying capacity is provided for industrial structure optimization problems. In the IFMOP model, both fuzzy linear programming (FLP and inexact linear programming (ILP methods are introduced into a multi-objective programming framework. It allows uncertainties to be directly communicated into the problem solving processing, and it can effectively reflect the complexity and uncertainty of an industrial system without impractical simplification. The two objective functions utilized in the optimization study are the maximum total output value and population size, and the constraints include water environmental capacity, water resource supply, atmospheric environmental capacity and energy supply. The model is subsequently employed in a realistic case for industrial development in the Tongzhou district, Beijing, China. The results demonstrate that the model can help to analyze whether the environmental carrying capacity of Tongzhou can meet the needs of the social economic objectives in the new town plan in the two scenarios and can assist decision makers in generating stable and balanced industrial structure patterns with consideration of the resources, energy and environmental constraints to meet the maximum social economic efficiency.

An Environmental Management Model of Thermal Waters in Entre Ríos Province, Argentina

Science.gov (United States)

Pablo, Mársico Daniel; Luís, Díaz Eduardo; Ivana, Zecca; Oscar, Dallacosta; Antonio, Paz-González

2015-04-01

Deep exploratory drillings, i.e. those with more than 500 meters depth, have been performed in the Entre Ríos province, Argentina, in order to ascertain the presence of thermal water. Drilling began in 1994, and until now there have been 18 polls with very variable results in terms of mineralization, resource flow, and temperature. The aim of this study was to present a management model, which should allow operators of thermal complexes to further develop procedures for safeguarding the biodiversity of the ecosystems involved, both during exploration and exploitation activities. The environmental management Plan proposed is constituted by a set of technical procedures that are formulated and should be performed during the stages of exploration and exploitation of the resource, and consists of: environmental monitoring, environmental audit, public information and contingency programs. This Plan describes the measures and proposals aimed at protecting environmental quality in the area of influence of a thermal complex project, ensuring that its execution remains environmentally responsibly, and allowing implementation of specific actions to prevent or correct environmental impacts, as predicted in the evaluation of the Environmental Program. The audit of environmental impact includes and takes into account natural factors, such as water, soil, atmosphere, flora and fauna, and also cultural factors. The technical audit Plan was prepared in order to get a systematic structure and organization of the verification process, and also with regard to document the degree of implementation of the proposed mitigation measures. Finally, an environmental contingency program was implemented, and its objective was to consider the safeguarding of life and its natural environment. Thus, a guide has been developed with the main actions to be taken on a contingency, since forecast increases the efficiency of the response. The methodology developed here was adopted as the procedure

Department of Energy environmental management complex-wide integration using systems engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fairbourn, P.

1997-01-01

A systems engineering approach was successfully used to recommend changes to environmental management activities across the DOE Complex. A team of technical experts and systems engineers developed alternatives that could save tax payers billions of dollars if the barriers are removed to allow complete implementation. The alternatives are technically-based and defensible, and are being worked through the stakeholder review process. The integration process and implementing project structure are both discussed

A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

Science.gov (United States)

The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

Environmental surveillance report for the INEL radioactive waste management complex. Annual report, 1976

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolenc, M.R.; Janke, D.H.

1977-05-01

This report describes the environmental surveillance activities during 1976 at the two solid waste facilities of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The monitoring program encompasses periodic and random sampling of air, water, and soil within and adjacent to the Radioactive Waste Management Complex and SL-1 Burial Ground. It was found that operation of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex and SL-1 during 1976 had little radiological impact on the environment and radioactivity levels were shown to be within appropriate guidelines for worker safety

Modeling Musical Complexity: Commentary on Eerola (2016

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joshua Albrecht

2016-07-01

Full Text Available In his paper, "Expectancy violation and information-theoretic models of melodic complexity," Eerola compares a number of models that correlate musical features of monophonic melodies with participant ratings of perceived melodic complexity. He finds that fairly strong results can be achieved using several different approaches to modeling perceived melodic complexity. The data used in this study are gathered from several previously published studies that use widely different types of melodies, including isochronous folk melodies, isochronous 12-tone rows, and rhythmically complex African folk melodies. This commentary first briefly reviews the article's method and main findings, then suggests a rethinking of the theoretical framework of the study. Finally, some of the methodological issues of the study are discussed.

Proceedings of the meeting on computational and experimental studies for modeling of radionuclide migration in complex aquatic ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsunaga, Takeshi; Hakanson, Lars

2010-09-01

The Research Group for Environmental Science of JAEA held a meeting on computational and experimental studies for modeling of radionuclide migration in complex aquatic ecosystems during November 16-20 of 2009. The aim was to discuss the relevance of various computational and experimental approaches to that modeling. The meeting was attended by a Swedish researcher, Prof. Dr. Lars Hakanson of Uppsala University. It included a joint talk at the Institute for Environmental Sciences, in addition to a field and facility survey of the JNFL commercial reprocessing plant located in Rokkasho, Aomori. The meeting demonstrated that it is crucial 1) to make a model structure be strictly relevant to the target objectives of a study and 2) to account for inherent fluctuations in target values in nature in a manner of qualitative parameterization. Moreover, it was confirmed that there can be multiple different approaches of modeling (e.g. detailed or simplified) with relevance for the objectives of a study. These discussions should be considered in model integration for complex aquatic ecosystems consisting catchments, rivers, lakes and coastal oceans which can interact with the atmosphere. This report compiles research subjects and lectures presented at the meeting with associated discussions. The 10 of the presented papers indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

Science.gov (United States)

Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

2010-01-01

Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response

Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S; Breen, Lauren J; Witt, Regina R; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

2016-01-01

Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care.

Evaluating the environmental fate of short-chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) in the Nordic environment using a dynamic multimedia model.

Science.gov (United States)

Krogseth, Ingjerd S; Breivik, Knut; Arnot, Jon A; Wania, Frank; Borgen, Anders R; Schlabach, Martin

2013-12-01

Short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) raise concerns due to their potential for persistence, bioaccumulation, long-range transport and adverse effects. An understanding of their environmental fate remains limited, partly due to the complexity of the mixture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a mechanistic, integrated, dynamic environmental fate and bioaccumulation multimedia model (CoZMoMAN) can reconcile what is known about environmental emissions and human exposure of SCCPs in the Nordic environment. Realistic SCCP emission scenarios, resolved by formula group, were estimated and used to predict the composition and concentrations of SCCPs in the environment and the human food chain. Emissions at the upper end of the estimated range resulted in predicted total concentrations that were often within a factor of 6 of observations. Similar model performance for a complex group of organic contaminants as for the well-known polychlorinated biphenyls strengthens the confidence in the CoZMoMAN model and implies a relatively good mechanistic understanding of the environmental fate of SCCPs. However, the degree of chlorination predicted for SCCPs in sediments, fish, and humans was higher than observed and poorly established environmental half-lives and biotransformation rate constants contributed to the uncertainties in the predicted composition and ∑SCCP concentrations. Improving prediction of the SCCP composition will also require better constrained estimates of the composition of SCCP emissions. There is, however, also large uncertainty and lack of coherence in the existing observations, and better model-measurement agreement will require improved analytical methods and more strategic sampling. More measurements of SCCP levels and compositions in samples from background regions are particularly important.

Metabolic network modeling of microbial interactions in natural and engineered environmental systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Octavio ePerez-Garcia

2016-05-01

Full Text Available We review approaches to characterize metabolic interactions within microbial communities using Stoichiometric Metabolic Network (SMN models for applications in environmental and industrial biotechnology. SMN models are computational tools used to evaluate the metabolic engineering potential of various organisms. They have successfully been applied to design and optimize the microbial production of antibiotics, alcohols and amino acids by single strains. To date however, such models have been rarely applied to analyze and control the metabolism of more complex microbial communities. This is largely attributed to the diversity of microbial community functions, metabolisms and interactions. Here, we firstly review different types of microbial interaction and describe their relevance for natural and engineered environmental processes. Next, we provide a general description of the essential methods of the SMN modeling workflow including the steps of network reconstruction, simulation through Flux Balance Analysis (FBA, experimental data gathering, and model calibration. Then we broadly describe and compare four approaches to model microbial interactions using metabolic networks, i.e. i lumped networks, ii compartment per guild networks, iii bi-level optimization simulations and iv dynamic-SMN methods. These approaches can be used to integrate and analyze diverse microbial physiology, ecology and molecular community data. All of them (except the lumped approach are suitable for incorporating species abundance data but so far they have been used only to model simple communities of two to eight different species. Interactions based on substrate exchange and competition can be directly modeled using the above approaches. However, interactions based on metabolic feedbacks, such as product inhibition and synthropy require extensions to current models, incorporating gene regulation and compounding accumulation mechanisms. SMN models of microbial

Mathematical modeling of flow-injection techniques and their applications for environmental monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Begum, N.N.; Ahmed, J.

2006-01-01

A classification of the existing mathematical models of flow-injection (FI) manifolds based on the main principles on which they are built, have been proposed. Numerous mathematical models of FI systems employing ideas from different scientific areas (e.g. mathematical statistics, chemical engineering, chromatography) have been developed so far. The models have been compared with respect to their predictive power, the complexity of their mathematical treatment, and the requirements for computation time when applied to single-line, multi-channel and conjugated two-line FI systems. It is concluded that the axially dispersed plug flow model deserves special attention because it offers an acceptable compromise between the conflicting requirements for maximal possible mathematical simplicity and maximal possible precision. Applicability of these existing flow-injection models to single-line, multi-channel and conjugated two-line systems for environmental monitoring have been discussed. (author)

Surface Complexation Modeling in Variable Charge Soils: Prediction of Cadmium Adsorption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuliano Marchi

2015-10-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants for 22 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from a cadmium adsorption experiment. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. Intrinsic equilibrium constants were optimized by FITEQL and by hand calculation using Visual MINTEQ in sweep mode, and Excel spreadsheets. Data from both models were incorporated into Visual MINTEQ. Constants estimated by FITEQL and incorporated in Visual MINTEQ software failed to predict observed data accurately. However, FITEQL raw output data rendered good results when predicted values were directly compared with observed values, instead of incorporating the estimated constants into Visual MINTEQ. Intrinsic equilibrium constants optimized by hand calculation and incorporated in Visual MINTEQ reliably predicted Cd adsorption reactions on soil surfaces under changing environmental conditions.

A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

2018-03-01

Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

A Knowledge-Based Representation Scheme for Environmental Science Models

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, Richard M.; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

1994-01-01

One of the primary methods available for studying environmental phenomena is the construction and analysis of computational models. We have been studying how artificial intelligence techniques can be applied to assist in the development and use of environmental science models within the context of NASA-sponsored activities. We have identified several high-utility areas as potential targets for research and development: model development; data visualization, analysis, and interpretation; model publishing and reuse, training and education; and framing, posing, and answering questions. Central to progress on any of the above areas is a representation for environmental models that contains a great deal more information than is present in a traditional software implementation. In particular, a traditional software implementation is devoid of any semantic information that connects the code with the environmental context that forms the background for the modeling activity. Before we can build AI systems to assist in model development and usage, we must develop a representation for environmental models that adequately describes a model's semantics and explicitly represents the relationship between the code and the modeling task at hand. We have developed one such representation in conjunction with our work on the SIGMA (Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant) environment. The key feature of the representation is that it provides a semantic grounding for the symbols in a set of modeling equations by linking those symbols to an explicit representation of the underlying environmental scenario.

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex environmental monitoring report for calendar year 1984

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-05-01

At the Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex all effluent streams are sampled regularly and analyzed to assess compliance with applicable environmental standards. Radioactivity is measured in air, water, fish, produce, soil, and sediments; and radiation doses to the public are calculated. The calculated public radiation doses from process effluents are within US Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental Protection Agency standards. An extensive amount of engineering effort is underway to modify existing airborne radioactivity emissions sources to further reduce emissions in compliance with DOE policy. Non-radioactive effluents either presently comply with federal standards or will comply upon completion of planned projects. CY-1984 was the fourth full year under the current National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit for liquid effluents, and the second year the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assumed responsibility for administering the NPDES program. Compliance with the permit's discharge limits, with the exception of violations due to the startup of two new wastewater treatment facilities, did not present any significant problems. Overall compliance was 94.7%

Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

Science.gov (United States)

Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

2007-04-01

In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

The Kuramoto model in complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Peron, Thomas K. DM.; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

Knowledge-Based Environmental Context Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Pukite, P. R.; Challou, D. J.

2017-12-01

As we move from the oil-age to an energy infrastructure based on renewables, the need arises for new educational tools to support the analysis of geophysical phenomena and their behavior and properties. Our objective is to present models of these phenomena to make them amenable for incorporation into more comprehensive analysis contexts. Starting at the level of a college-level computer science course, the intent is to keep the models tractable and therefore practical for student use. Based on research performed via an open-source investigation managed by DARPA and funded by the Department of Interior [1], we have adapted a variety of physics-based environmental models for a computer-science curriculum. The original research described a semantic web architecture based on patterns and logical archetypal building-blocks (see figure) well suited for a comprehensive environmental modeling framework. The patterns span a range of features that cover specific land, atmospheric and aquatic domains intended for engineering modeling within a virtual environment. The modeling engine contained within the server relied on knowledge-based inferencing capable of supporting formal terminology (through NASA JPL's Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Technology (SWEET) ontology and a domain-specific language) and levels of abstraction via integrated reasoning modules. One of the key goals of the research was to simplify models that were ordinarily computationally intensive to keep them lightweight enough for interactive or virtual environment contexts. The breadth of the elements incorporated is well-suited for learning as the trend toward ontologies and applying semantic information is vital for advancing an open knowledge infrastructure. As examples of modeling, we have covered such geophysics topics as fossil-fuel depletion, wind statistics, tidal analysis, and terrain modeling, among others. Techniques from the world of computer science will be necessary to promote efficient

Environmental management: A system approach

Science.gov (United States)

Petak, William J.

1981-05-01

This paper presents a system framework whose purpose is to improve understanding of environmental management. By analyzing the links between elements of the environmental management system, it is possible to construct a model that aids thinking systematically about the decision-making subsystem, and other subsystems, of the entire environmental management system. Through a multidisciplinary environmental approach, each of the individual subsystems is able to adapt to threats and opportunities. The fields of government, market economics, social responsibility and ecology, for example, are so complex that it is extremely difficult to develop a framework that gives full consideration to all aspects. This paper, through the application of a highly idealized system framework, attempts to show the general relationships that exist between complex system elements.

Environmental management plan of the mining and industrial uranium complex in Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Figuereido, N.; Hilton, M.; Wiikman, L.; Oliveira, M.; Taddei, J.

1996-01-01

The Mining and Industrial Complex of the Pocos de Caldas Plateau (CIPC) is located at Caldas, county in the southwest of Minas Gerais state. It is a plant of the Industrias Nucleares do Brazil S.A. -INB, the only installation in Brazil for the production of uranium concentrate (yellow-cake) as ammonium diuranate (Adu). The Environmental protection and control program in practice assures the environmental management plan, in operation, maintaining the Complex within technology standards required by updated environmental concepts. The mine is an open pit operation with a surface diameter of 1000 m and an actual average depth of 120 m. Some 44 x 10 6 m 3 of the overburden material were used in embankments structures to civil engineering works in the implantation of several installations in CIPC, and the other portion of the removed material was deposited in two pre-selected areas having both an upper area of about 2,0 x 10 6 m 2 . The annual average volume of waters transported to chemical treatment is about 9,0 x 10 5 m 3 . The mill, in its full operation, processes 2500 t of ore per day and the solid and liquid tailings are directed to a waste pond system where are contained approximately 2,0 x 10 6 m 3 (2,2 x 10 6 t) of solid wastes with an estimation of further 70 x 10 5 m 3 to be disposed. The upper surface of tailings pond is about 2,0 x 10 5 m 2 . Nowadays, the environmental protection and control program aims to the development of potential pollutant areas stabilization reintegrating them into their original features or adjusting them to other forms of laudable restoration. (authors). 1 fig

Surface complexation modeling calculation of Pb(II) adsorption onto the calcined diatomite

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Shu-Cui; Zhang, Ji-Lin; Sun, De-Hui; Liu, Gui-Xia

2015-12-01

Removal of noxious heavy metal ions (e.g. Pb(II)) by surface adsorption of minerals (e.g. diatomite) is an important means in the environmental aqueous pollution control. Thus, it is very essential to understand the surface adsorptive behavior and mechanism. In this work, the Pb(II) apparent surface complexation reaction equilibrium constants on the calcined diatomite and distributions of Pb(II) surface species were investigated through modeling calculations of Pb(II) based on diffuse double layer model (DLM) with three amphoteric sites. Batch experiments were used to study the adsorption of Pb(II) onto the calcined diatomite as a function of pH (3.0-7.0) and different ionic strengths (0.05 and 0.1 mol L-1 NaCl) under ambient atmosphere. Adsorption of Pb(II) can be well described by Freundlich isotherm models. The apparent surface complexation equilibrium constants (log K) were obtained by fitting the batch experimental data using the PEST 13.0 together with PHREEQC 3.1.2 codes and there is good agreement between measured and predicted data. Distribution of Pb(II) surface species on the diatomite calculated by PHREEQC 3.1.2 program indicates that the impurity cations (e.g. Al3+, Fe3+, etc.) in the diatomite play a leading role in the Pb(II) adsorption and dominant formation of complexes and additional electrostatic interaction are the main adsorption mechanism of Pb(II) on the diatomite under weak acidic conditions.

Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

Science.gov (United States)

Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

2001-03-30

Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

Environmental surveillance for the INEL radioactive waste management complex. Annual report, 1979

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wickham, L.E.; Janke, D.H.

1980-12-01

This document is the 1979 annual environmental surveillance report for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included are tabulated data from and discussions about routine radiological monitoring of atmospheric, hydrologic, geologic, and biotic environments of the RWMC. Also included are discussions of selected nonradiological pollutants (e.g., sodium, etc.). It is concluded that (a) RWMC operations have not adversely affected local, existing environments; (b) environmental conditions within the Transuranic Storage Area are not corrosive enough to adversely affect transuranic waste storage containers, and (c) the addition of lakebed soil to pit, trench, and soil test plot areas has altered the moisture cycle characteristic of RWMC soil

A program-level management system for the life cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chan-Joong; Kim, Jimin; Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Jeong, Kwangbok; Park, Hyo Seon

2015-01-01

Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental issues, of which about 40% come from the building sector. In particular, complex building projects with various functions have increased, which should be managed from a program-level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a program-level management system for the life-cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects. The developed system consists of three parts: (i) input part: database server and input data; (ii) analysis part: life cycle assessment and life cycle cost; and (iii) result part: microscopic analysis and macroscopic analysis. To analyze the applicability of the developed system, this study selected ‘U’ University, a complex building project consisting of research facility and residential facility. Through value engineering with experts, a total of 137 design alternatives were established. Based on these alternatives, the macroscopic analysis results were as follows: (i) at the program-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in ‘U’ University were reduced by 6.22% and 2.11%, respectively; (ii) at the project-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in research facility were reduced 6.01% and 1.87%, respectively; and those in residential facility, 12.01% and 3.83%, respective; and (iii) for the mechanical work at the work-type-level, the initial cost was increased 2.9%; but the operation and maintenance phase was reduced by 20.0%. As a result, the developed system can allow the facility managers to establish the operation and maintenance strategies for the environmental and economic aspects from a program-level perspective. - Highlights: • A program-level management system for complex building projects was developed. • Life-cycle environmental and economic assessment can be conducted using the system. • The design alternatives can be analyzed from the microscopic perspective. • The system can be used to

A program-level management system for the life cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Chan-Joong [Parsons Brinckerhoff, Seoul 135-763 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jimin; Hong, Taehoon; Koo, Choongwan; Jeong, Kwangbok; Park, Hyo Seon [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-09-15

Climate change has become one of the most significant environmental issues, of which about 40% come from the building sector. In particular, complex building projects with various functions have increased, which should be managed from a program-level perspective. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a program-level management system for the life-cycle environmental and economic assessment of complex building projects. The developed system consists of three parts: (i) input part: database server and input data; (ii) analysis part: life cycle assessment and life cycle cost; and (iii) result part: microscopic analysis and macroscopic analysis. To analyze the applicability of the developed system, this study selected ‘U’ University, a complex building project consisting of research facility and residential facility. Through value engineering with experts, a total of 137 design alternatives were established. Based on these alternatives, the macroscopic analysis results were as follows: (i) at the program-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in ‘U’ University were reduced by 6.22% and 2.11%, respectively; (ii) at the project-level, the life-cycle environmental and economic cost in research facility were reduced 6.01% and 1.87%, respectively; and those in residential facility, 12.01% and 3.83%, respective; and (iii) for the mechanical work at the work-type-level, the initial cost was increased 2.9%; but the operation and maintenance phase was reduced by 20.0%. As a result, the developed system can allow the facility managers to establish the operation and maintenance strategies for the environmental and economic aspects from a program-level perspective. - Highlights: • A program-level management system for complex building projects was developed. • Life-cycle environmental and economic assessment can be conducted using the system. • The design alternatives can be analyzed from the microscopic perspective. • The system can be used to

An integrated model for simulating nitrogen trading in an agricultural catchment with complex hydrogeology.

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, T J; Rutherford, J C; Kerr, S C; Smeaton, D C; Palliser, C C

2013-09-30

Nitrogen loads to several New Zealand lakes are dominated by nonpoint runoff from pastoral farmland which adversely affects lake water quality. A 'cap and trade' scheme is being considered to help meet targets set for nitrogen loads to Lake Rotorua, and a numerical model, NTRADER, has been developed to simulate and compare alternative schemes. NTRADER models both the geophysics of nitrogen generation and transport, including groundwater lag times, and the economics of 'cap and trade' schemes. It integrates the output from several existing models, including a farm-scale nitrogen leaching and abatement model, a farm-scale management economic model, and a catchment-scale nitrogen transport model. This paper details modeling methods and compares possible trading program design features for the Lake Rotorua catchment. Model simulations demonstrate how a cap and trade program could be used to effectively achieve challenging environmental goals in the targeted catchment. However, results also show that, due to complex hydrogeology, satisfactory environmental outcomes may be not achieved unless groundwater lag times are incorporated into the regulatory scheme. One way to do this, as demonstrated here, would be to explicitly include lag times in the cap and trade program. The utility of the model is further demonstrated by quantifying relative differences in abatement costs across potential regulatory schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polanco, Camilo

2006-01-01

The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

On the use of Empirical Data to Downscale Non-scientific Scepticism About Results From Complex Physical Based Models

Science.gov (United States)

Germer, S.; Bens, O.; Hüttl, R. F.

2008-12-01

The scepticism of non-scientific local stakeholders about results from complex physical based models is a major problem concerning the development and implementation of local climate change adaptation measures. This scepticism originates from the high complexity of such models. Local stakeholders perceive complex models as black-box models, as it is impossible to gasp all underlying assumptions and mathematically formulated processes at a glance. The use of physical based models is, however, indispensible to study complex underlying processes and to predict future environmental changes. The increase of climate change adaptation efforts following the release of the latest IPCC report indicates that the communication of facts about what has already changed is an appropriate tool to trigger climate change adaptation. Therefore we suggest increasing the practice of empirical data analysis in addition to modelling efforts. The analysis of time series can generate results that are easier to comprehend for non-scientific stakeholders. Temporal trends and seasonal patterns of selected hydrological parameters (precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels and river discharge) can be identified and the dependence of trends and seasonal patters to land use, topography and soil type can be highlighted. A discussion about lag times between the hydrological parameters can increase the awareness of local stakeholders for delayed environment responses.

Linking Complexity and Sustainability Theories: Implications for Modeling Sustainability Transitions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camaren Peter

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we deploy a complexity theory as the foundation for integration of different theoretical approaches to sustainability and develop a rationale for a complexity-based framework for modeling transitions to sustainability. We propose a framework based on a comparison of complex systems’ properties that characterize the different theories that deal with transitions to sustainability. We argue that adopting a complexity theory based approach for modeling transitions requires going beyond deterministic frameworks; by adopting a probabilistic, integrative, inclusive and adaptive approach that can support transitions. We also illustrate how this complexity-based modeling framework can be implemented; i.e., how it can be used to select modeling techniques that address particular properties of complex systems that we need to understand in order to model transitions to sustainability. In doing so, we establish a complexity-based approach towards modeling sustainability transitions that caters for the broad range of complex systems’ properties that are required to model transitions to sustainability.

A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

2000-01-01

The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

Complex Systems Analysis of Cell Cycling Models in Carcinogenesis:II. Cell Genome and Interactome, Neoplastic Non-random Transformation Models in Topoi with Lukasiewicz-Logic and MV Algebras

CERN Document Server

Baianu, I C

2004-01-01

Quantitative Biology, abstract q-bio.OT/0406045 From: I.C. Baianu Dr. [view email] Date (v1): Thu, 24 Jun 2004 02:45:13 GMT (164kb) Date (revised v2): Fri, 2 Jul 2004 00:58:06 GMT (160kb) Complex Systems Analysis of Cell Cycling Models in Carcinogenesis: II. Authors: I.C. Baianu Comments: 23 pages, 1 Figure Report-no: CC04 Subj-class: Other Carcinogenesis is a complex process that involves dynamically inter-connected modular sub-networks that evolve under the influence of micro-environmentally induced perturbations, in non-random, pseudo-Markov chain processes. An appropriate n-stage model of carcinogenesis involves therefore n-valued Logic treatments of nonlinear dynamic transformations of complex functional genomes and cell interactomes. Lukasiewicz Algebraic Logic models of genetic networks and signaling pathways in cells are formulated in terms of nonlinear dynamic systems with n-state components that allow for the generalization of previous, Boolean or "fuzzy", logic models of genetic activities in vivo....

Ionic liquid and solid HF equivalent amine-poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes effecting efficient environmentally friendly isobutane-isobutylene alkylation.

Science.gov (United States)

Olah, George A; Mathew, Thomas; Goeppert, Alain; Török, Béla; Bucsi, Imre; Li, Xing-Ya; Wang, Qi; Marinez, Eric R; Batamack, Patrice; Aniszfeld, Robert; Prakash, G K Surya

2005-04-27

Isoparaffin-olefin alkylation was investigated using liquid as well as solid onium poly(hydrogen fluoride) catalysts. These new immobilized anhydrous HF catalysts contain varied amines and nitrogen-containing polymers as complexing agents. The liquid poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes of amines are typical ionic liquids, which are convenient media and serve as HF equivalent catalysts with decreased volatility for isoparaffin-olefin alkylation. Polymeric solid amine:poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes are excellent solid HF equivalents for similar alkylation acid catalysis. Isobutane-isobutylene or 2-butene alkylation gave excellent yields of high octane alkylates (up to RON = 94). Apart from their excellent catalytic performance, the new catalyst systems significantly reduce environmental hazards due to the low volatility of complexed HF. They represent a new, "green" class of catalyst systems for alkylation reactions, maintaining activity of HF while minimizing its environmental hazards.

Urban systems complexity in sustainability and health: an interdisciplinary modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nici Zimmermann, PhD

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Improving urban health and sustainability raises complex questions that are best addressed through interdisciplinary and even transdisciplinary approaches, in which scientific research and analysis and stakeholder engagement have important roles. In this study we report pilot work in Nairobi (Kenya and London (UK that uses innovative methods to integrate qualitative and quantitative modelling to provide evidence to support policy development for health and sustainability in these cities. Methods: We used two primary modelling methods, system dynamics and microsimulation, and sought to understand the value of these tools in combination to support policy decisions. System dynamics was used to establish an aggregated and non-linear causal map of the interconnections between diverse variables, and thus to gain insight into the policies and specific processes that need to be examined in further depth. System dynamics was a key tool for city-level stakeholder engagement. In part informed by the outcome of the system dynamics process, microsimulation was then used to quantify local effects on health of selected policy options. The results were mapped using geographic information systems methods. Findings: The combination of system dynamics and microsimulation models provided a framework that enhanced collective knowledge about the interrelationships of policy decisions, funding, public awareness, and environmental and health effects. Our initial participatory system dynamics work on air pollution in Nairobi found that a combination of policies that focus on households and outdoor air could reduce household air pollution by about 50%, leaving it still above WHO-recommended levels. Yet, the investments in monitoring and health impact assessment have the potential to trigger reinforcing mechanisms that create synergies among existing policies and increase the return on investment. Preliminary 106-year microsimulation runs of the effects of PM2

Dispositional and Environmental Predictors of the Development of Internalizing Problems in Childhood: Testing a Multilevel Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Paul D; Helm, Jonathan; Mills, Rosemary S L; Serbin, Lisa A; Stack, Dale M; Schwartzman, Alex E

2015-07-01

This investigation evaluated a multilevel model of dispositional and environmental factors contributing to the development of internalizing problems from preschool-age to school-age. In a sample of 375 families (185 daughters, 190 sons) drawn from three independent samples, preschoolers' behavioral inhibition, cortisol and gender were examined as moderators of the links between mothers' negative parenting behavior, negative emotional characteristics, and socioeconomic status when children were 3.95 years, and their internalizing problems when they were 8.34 years. Children's dispositional characteristics moderated all associations between these environmental factors and mother-reported internalizing problems in patterns that were consistent with either diathesis-stress or differential-susceptibility models of individual-environment interaction, and with gender models of developmental psychopathology. Greater inhibition and lower socioeconomic status were directly predictive of more teacher reported internalizing problems. These findings highlight the importance of using multilevel models within a bioecological framework to understand the complex pathways through which internalizing difficulties develop.

Complexity-aware simple modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Schiavon, Mariana; El-Samad, Hana

2018-02-26

Mathematical models continue to be essential for deepening our understanding of biology. On one extreme, simple or small-scale models help delineate general biological principles. However, the parsimony of detail in these models as well as their assumption of modularity and insulation make them inaccurate for describing quantitative features. On the other extreme, large-scale and detailed models can quantitatively recapitulate a phenotype of interest, but have to rely on many unknown parameters, making them often difficult to parse mechanistically and to use for extracting general principles. We discuss some examples of a new approach-complexity-aware simple modeling-that can bridge the gap between the small-scale and large-scale approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Complexity analysis of the turbulent environmental fluid flow time series

Science.gov (United States)

Mihailović, D. T.; Nikolić-Đorić, E.; Drešković, N.; Mimić, G.

2014-02-01

We have used the Kolmogorov complexities, sample and permutation entropies to quantify the randomness degree in river flow time series of two mountain rivers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, representing the turbulent environmental fluid, for the period 1926-1990. In particular, we have examined the monthly river flow time series from two rivers (the Miljacka and the Bosnia) in the mountain part of their flow and then calculated the Kolmogorov complexity (KL) based on the Lempel-Ziv Algorithm (LZA) (lower-KLL and upper-KLU), sample entropy (SE) and permutation entropy (PE) values for each time series. The results indicate that the KLL, KLU, SE and PE values in two rivers are close to each other regardless of the amplitude differences in their monthly flow rates. We have illustrated the changes in mountain river flow complexity by experiments using (i) the data set for the Bosnia River and (ii) anticipated human activities and projected climate changes. We have explored the sensitivity of considered measures in dependence on the length of time series. In addition, we have divided the period 1926-1990 into three subintervals: (a) 1926-1945, (b) 1946-1965, (c) 1966-1990, and calculated the KLL, KLU, SE, PE values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1946-1965, there is a decrease in their complexities, and corresponding changes in the SE and PE, in comparison to the period 1926-1990. This complexity loss may be primarily attributed to (i) human interventions, after the Second World War, on these two rivers because of their use for water consumption and (ii) climate change in recent times.

Computational models of complex systems

CERN Document Server

Dabbaghian, Vahid

2014-01-01

Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

Immunogenetic basis of environmental lung disease: Lessons from the berylliosis model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saltini, C.; Richeldi, L.; Amicosante, M.; Franchi, A.; Lombardi, G.

1998-01-01

The role of genetic factors has been hypothesized in the pathogenesis of a number of chronic inflammatory lung diseases. The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus on human chromosome 6 have been identified as important determinants in diseases caused both by inorganic and organic compounds such as beryllium, gold, acid anhydrides, isocyanates and grass pollens. Since many environmental factors are the determinants of the immunopathogenesis of asthma, pulmonary granulomatous disorders, hypersensitivity pneumonitis and fibrotic lung disorders, an understanding of the interaction between environmental factors is crucial to epidemiology, prevention and treatment of these disorders. Berylliosis is an environmental chronic inflammatory disorder of the lung caused by inhalation of beryllium dusts. A human leukocyte antigen class II marker (HLA-DP Glu69) has been found to be strongly associated with the disease. In in vitro studies, the gene has been shown to play a direct role in the immunopathogenesis of the disease. In human studies, the gene has been shown to confer increased susceptibility to beryllium in exposed workers, thus suggesting that HLA gene markers may be used as epidemiological probes to identify population groups at higher risk of environmental lung diseases, to identify environmental levels of lung immunotoxicants that would be safe for the entire population and the prevent disease risk associated with occupation, manufactured products and the environment. Studies on the associations between human leukocyte antigens and chronic inflammatory lung disorders are reviewed in the context of the berylliosis model. (au)

Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

2012-01-01

Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

The effects of sampling bias and model complexity on the predictive performance of MaxEnt species distribution models.

Science.gov (United States)

Syfert, Mindy M; Smith, Matthew J; Coomes, David A

2013-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) trained on presence-only data are frequently used in ecological research and conservation planning. However, users of SDM software are faced with a variety of options, and it is not always obvious how selecting one option over another will affect model performance. Working with MaxEnt software and with tree fern presence data from New Zealand, we assessed whether (a) choosing to correct for geographical sampling bias and (b) using complex environmental response curves have strong effects on goodness of fit. SDMs were trained on tree fern data, obtained from an online biodiversity data portal, with two sources that differed in size and geographical sampling bias: a small, widely-distributed set of herbarium specimens and a large, spatially clustered set of ecological survey records. We attempted to correct for geographical sampling bias by incorporating sampling bias grids in the SDMs, created from all georeferenced vascular plants in the datasets, and explored model complexity issues by fitting a wide variety of environmental response curves (known as "feature types" in MaxEnt). In each case, goodness of fit was assessed by comparing predicted range maps with tree fern presences and absences using an independent national dataset to validate the SDMs. We found that correcting for geographical sampling bias led to major improvements in goodness of fit, but did not entirely resolve the problem: predictions made with clustered ecological data were inferior to those made with the herbarium dataset, even after sampling bias correction. We also found that the choice of feature type had negligible effects on predictive performance, indicating that simple feature types may be sufficient once sampling bias is accounted for. Our study emphasizes the importance of reducing geographical sampling bias, where possible, in datasets used to train SDMs, and the effectiveness and essentialness of sampling bias correction within MaxEnt.

The evolution of the Dogger Bank, North Sea: A complex history of terrestrial, glacial and marine environmental change

Science.gov (United States)

Cotterill, Carol J.; Phillips, Emrys; James, Leo; Forsberg, Carl Fredrik; Tjelta, Tor Inge; Carter, Gareth; Dove, Dayton

2017-09-01

This paper presents a summary of the results of a detailed multidisciplinary study of the near surface geology of the Dogger Bank in the southern central North Sea, forming part of a site investigation for a major windfarm development undertaken by the Forewind consortium. It has revealed that the Dogger Bank is internally complex rather than comprising a simple ;layer cake; of the Quaternary sediments as previously thought. Regional and high-resolution seismic surveys have enabled a revised stratigraphic framework to be established for the upper part of this sequence which comprises the Eem (oldest), Dogger Bank, Bolders Bank formations and Botney Cut Formation (youngest), overlain by a typically thin Holocene sequence. Detailed mapping of key horizons identified on the high-resolution seismic profiles has led to the recognition of a series of buried palaeo-landsystems which are characterised by a range of features including; glacial, glacifluvial and fluvial channels, a large-scale glacitectonic thrust-moraine complex with intervening ice-marginal basins, a lacustrine basin and marine ravinement surfaces. Interpretation of these buried landscapes has enabled the development of an environmental change model to explain the evolution of the Dogger Bank. This evolution was driven by the complex interplay between climate change, ice sheet dynamics and sea level change associated with the growth and subsequent demise of the British and Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets during the Weichselian glaciation. Following the decay of these ice sheets the Dogger Bank entered a period of significant climatic and environmental flux which saw a terrestrial landscape being progressively inundated as sea levels rose during the Holocene.

System dynamics model of taxi management in metropolises: Economic and environmental implications for Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hao; Zhang, Kai; Chen, Junhua; Wang, Zhifeng; Li, Guijun; Yang, Yuqi

2018-05-01

Taxis are an important component of urban passenger transport. Research on the daily dispatching of taxis and the utility of governmental management is important for the improvement of passenger travel, taxi driver income and environmental impacts. However, urban taxi management is a complex and dynamic system that is affected by many factors, and positive/negative feedback relationships and nonlinear interactions exist between each subsystem and variable. Therefore, conventional research methods can hardly depict its characteristics comprehensively. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a system dynamics model of urban taxi management, in which the empty-loaded rate and total demand are selected as key factors affecting taxi dispatching, and the impacts of taxi fares on driver income and travel demand are taken into account. After the validation of the model, taxi operations data derived from a prior analysis of origin-destination data of Beijing taxis are used as input for the model to simulate the taxi market in Beijing. Finally, economic and environmental implications are provided for the government to optimise policies on taxi management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

1983-01-01

Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

Environmental Screening for the Scedosporium apiospermum Species Complex in Public Parks in Bangkok, Thailand.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natthanej Luplertlop

Full Text Available The Scedosporium apiospermum species complex, comprising filamentous fungal species S. apiospermum sensu stricto, S. boydii, S. aurantiacum, S. dehoogii and S. minutispora, are important pathogens that cause a wide variety of infections. Although some species (S. boydii and S. apiospermum have been isolated from patients in Thailand, no environmental surveys of these fungi have been performed in Thailand or surrounding countries. In this study, we isolated and identified species of these fungi from 68 soil and 16 water samples randomly collected from 10 parks in Bangkok. After filtration and subsequent inoculation of samples on Scedo-Select III medium, colony morphological examinations and microscopic observations were performed. Scedosporium species were isolated from soil in 8 of the 10 parks, but were only detected in one water sample. Colony morphologies of isolates from 41 of 68 soil samples (60.29% and 1 of 15 water samples (6.67% were consistent with that of the S. apiospermum species complex. Each morphological type was selected for species identification based on DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the β-tubulin gene. Three species of the S. apiospermum species complex were identified: S. apiospermum (71 isolates, S. aurantiacum (6 isolates and S. dehoogii (5 isolates. In addition, 16 sequences could not be assigned to an exact Scedosporium species. According to our environmental survey, the S. apiospermum species complex is widespread in soil in Bangkok, Thailand.

Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

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Madjid Abbaspour

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

Parallel Motion Simulation of Large-Scale Real-Time Crowd in a Hierarchical Environmental Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel real-time crowd simulation method based on a hierarchical environmental model. A dynamical model of the complex environment should be constructed to simulate the state transition and propagation of individual motions. By modeling of a virtual environment where virtual crowds reside, we employ different parallel methods on a topological layer, a path layer and a perceptual layer. We propose a parallel motion path matching method based on the path layer and a parallel crowd simulation method based on the perceptual layer. The large-scale real-time crowd simulation becomes possible with these methods. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the methods and results.

Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator–prey models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobramysl, U; Täuber, U C

2013-01-01

In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka–Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator–prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization. (paper)

Cumulative complexity: a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity can improve research and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Shippee, Nathan D; Shah, Nilay D; May, Carl R; Mair, Frances S; Montori, Victor M

2012-10-01

To design a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity with practical applicability to analytic design and clinical practice. Existing literature on patient complexity has mainly identified its components descriptively and in isolation, lacking clarity as to their combined functions in disrupting care or to how complexity changes over time. The authors developed a cumulative complexity model, which integrates existing literature and emphasizes how clinical and social factors accumulate and interact to complicate patient care. A narrative literature review is used to explicate the model. The model emphasizes a core, patient-level mechanism whereby complicating factors impact care and outcomes: the balance between patient workload of demands and patient capacity to address demands. Workload encompasses the demands on the patient's time and energy, including demands of treatment, self-care, and life in general. Capacity concerns ability to handle work (e.g., functional morbidity, financial/social resources, literacy). Workload-capacity imbalances comprise the mechanism driving patient complexity. Treatment and illness burdens serve as feedback loops, linking negative outcomes to further imbalances, such that complexity may accumulate over time. With its components largely supported by existing literature, the model has implications for analytic design, clinical epidemiology, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy Identifies Calcium-Uranyl-Carbonate Complexes at Environmental Concentrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Shelly D.; Kemner, Kenneth M.; Brooks, Scott C.

2007-01-01

Current research on bioremediation of uranium-contaminated groundwater focuses on supplying indigenous metal-reducing bacteria with the appropriate metabolic requirements to induce microbiological reduction of soluble uranium(VI) to poorly soluble uranium(IV). Recent studies of uranium(VI) bioreduction in the presence of environmentally relevant levels of calcium revealed limited and slowed uranium(VI) reduction and the formation of a Ca-UO2-CO3 complex. However, the stoichiometry of the complex is poorly defined and may be complicated by the presence of a Na-UO2-CO3 complex. Such a complex might exist even at high calcium concentrations, as some UO2-CO3 complexes will still be present. The number of calcium and/or sodium atoms coordinated to a uranyl carbonate complex will determine the net charge of the complex. Such a change in aqueous speciation of uranium(VI) in calcareous groundwater may affect the fate and transport properties of uranium. In this paper, we present the results from X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) measurements of a series of solutions containing 50 lM uranium(VI) and 30 mM sodium bicarbonate, with various calcium concentrations of 0-5 mM. Use of the data series reduces the uncertainty in the number of calcium atoms bound to the UO2-CO3 complex to approximately 0.6 and enables spectroscopic identification of the Na-UO2-CO3 complex. At nearly neutral pH values, the numbers of sodium and calcium atoms bound to the uranyl triscarbonate species are found to depend on the calcium concentration, as predicted by speciation calculations

Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, Pierre D.

2015-01-01

Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

A goal programming model for environmental policy analysis: Application to Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

San Cristóbal, José Ramón

2012-01-01

Sustainable development has become an important part of international and national approaches to integrate economic, environmental, social and ethical considerations so that a good quality of life can be enjoyed by current and future generations for as long as possible. However, nowadays sustainable development is threatened by industrial pollution emissions which cause serious environmental problems. Due to a lack of adequate quantitative models for environmental policy analysis, there is a strong need for analytical models in order to know the effects of environmental policies. In the present paper, a goal programming model, based on an environmental/input–output linear programming model, is developed and applied to the Spanish economy. The model combines relations between economic, energy, social and environmental effects, providing valuable information for policy-makers in order to define and examine the different goals that must be implemented to reach sustainability. - Highlights: ► In this paper a goal programming model is developed. ► The model considers environmental, energy, social and economic goals. ► The model shows the effects of a reduction in greenhouse gasses emission and energy requirements. ► The model is applied to the Spanish economy.

Investigation of exhaust gases at blends of fuels/biofuels at the Helmholtz Virtual Institute for Complex Molecular Systems in Environmental Health; Abgasuntersuchungen an Kraftstoffen/Biokraftstoff-Blends im Rahmen des Helmholtz Virtual Institute for Complex Molecular Systems in Environmental Health

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Streibel, Thorsten [Rostock Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Chemie, Analytische Chemie; Adam, Thomas; Grabowsky, Jana; Sklorz, Martin; Zimmermann, Ralf

2012-07-01

The objective of the ''Helmholtz Virtual Institute of Complex Molecular Systems in Environmental Health'' (HICE) is the establishment of a long-term scientific research initiative for the investigation of the causes and mechanisms of environmentally influenced diseases. In the initial phase (INF funding period) the HICE focuses on a deeper understanding of the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on human health. Based on current hypotheses, reactive organic compounds in particle as well as in gas phase of aerosols are particularly relevant. Innovative in-vitro human lung tissue models and selected susceptible animal models are exposed to aerosols, and separated gas and particle phases from relevant sources. The response of the biological systems is investigated by state-of-the-art analytical techniques on different biological levels (transcriptome, proteome, metabolome, toxicological parameters). The second central topic is the real-time characterization of emissions (gas- and particulate phase) from internal combustion engines with a special focus on the influence of the biodiesel content. For this, mass spectrometry with photo ionization will be applied for the detection of organic compounds. Preliminary studies dealt with the online investigation of the gas phase of truck diesel exhaust as well as the offline particulate phase characterization after thermal desorption. Both studies detected primarily (poly)aromatic hydrocarbons. (orig.)

On spin and matrix models in the complex plane

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damgaard, P.H.; Heller, U.M.

1993-01-01

We describe various aspects of statistical mechanics defined in the complex temperature or coupling-constant plane. Using exactly solvable models, we analyse such aspects as renormalization group flows in the complex plane, the distribution of partition function zeros, and the question of new coupling-constant symmetries of complex-plane spin models. The double-scaling form of matrix models is shown to be exactly equivalent to finite-size scaling of two-dimensional spin systems. This is used to show that the string susceptibility exponents derived from matrix models can be obtained numerically with very high accuracy from the scaling of finite-N partition function zeros in the complex plane. (orig.)

Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

Science.gov (United States)

Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

2017-07-01

Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

Monitoring and Analysis of Environmental Gamma Dose Rate around Serpong Nuclear Complex

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I.P. Susila

2017-08-01

Full Text Available An environmental radiation monitoring system that continuously measures gamma dose rate around nuclear facilities is an important tool to present dose rate information to the public or authorities for radiological protection during both normal operation and radiological accidents. We have developed such a system that consists of six GM-based device for monitoring the environmental dose rate around Serpong Nuclear Complex. It has operated since 2010. In this study, a description of the system and analysis of measured data are presented. Analysis of the data for the last five years shows that the average dose rate levels were between 84-99 nSv/h which are still lower than terrestrial gamma radiation levels at several other locations in Indonesia. Time series analysis of the monitoring data demonstrates a good agreement between an increase in environmental gamma dose rate and the presence of iodine and argon in the air by in situ measurement. This result indicates that system is also effective for an early warning system in the case of radiological emergency.

The effect of environmental conditions on the stability of heavy metal-filter material complex as assessed by the leaching of adsorbed metal ions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khokhotva, Oleksandr, E-mail: khokhotva@bigmir.net [School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology, Maelardalen University, Box 883, SE-721 23, Vaesteras (Sweden); Waara, Sylvia, E-mail: sylvia.waara@hh.se [School of Sustainable Development of Society and Technology, Maelardalen University, Box 883, SE-721 23, Vaesteras (Sweden)

2011-06-15

In this study the influence of environmental conditions, most likely prevailing in filter beds used for intermittently discharged pollutant streams such as landfill leachate and storm water, on the stability of the heavy metal-filter complex was investigated for 2 filter materials; non-treated and urea treated pine bark, using leaching experiments. The metal-filter complex stability was higher for urea treated than for non-treated pine bark and dependent on the metal adsorbed. The type of environmental condition applied was of less importance for the extent of leaching. - Highlights: > Metal-pine bark complex stability under changing environmental conditions is studied. > Metal leaching from non-treated bark is much higher than from urea-treated bark. > No significant influence of changing environmental conditions on the leaching extent. > Metal leaching from wet bark samples exposed to freezing is somewhat higher.> Zn leaching is the highest and Cu leaching is the lowest for both bark samples. - The study assess the metal-filter material complex stability when metal removal using filter material is used in locations with fluctuating environmental conditions.

The effect of environmental conditions on the stability of heavy metal-filter material complex as assessed by the leaching of adsorbed metal ions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khokhotva, Oleksandr; Waara, Sylvia

2011-01-01

In this study the influence of environmental conditions, most likely prevailing in filter beds used for intermittently discharged pollutant streams such as landfill leachate and storm water, on the stability of the heavy metal-filter complex was investigated for 2 filter materials; non-treated and urea treated pine bark, using leaching experiments. The metal-filter complex stability was higher for urea treated than for non-treated pine bark and dependent on the metal adsorbed. The type of environmental condition applied was of less importance for the extent of leaching. - Highlights: → Metal-pine bark complex stability under changing environmental conditions is studied. → Metal leaching from non-treated bark is much higher than from urea-treated bark. → No significant influence of changing environmental conditions on the leaching extent. → Metal leaching from wet bark samples exposed to freezing is somewhat higher.→ Zn leaching is the highest and Cu leaching is the lowest for both bark samples. - The study assess the metal-filter material complex stability when metal removal using filter material is used in locations with fluctuating environmental conditions.

Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

2011-04-01

This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

Modeling OPC complexity for design for manufacturability

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Puneet; Kahng, Andrew B.; Muddu, Swamy; Nakagawa, Sam; Park, Chul-Hong

2005-11-01

Increasing design complexity in sub-90nm designs results in increased mask complexity and cost. Resolution enhancement techniques (RET) such as assist feature addition, phase shifting (attenuated PSM) and aggressive optical proximity correction (OPC) help in preserving feature fidelity in silicon but increase mask complexity and cost. Data volume increase with rise in mask complexity is becoming prohibitive for manufacturing. Mask cost is determined by mask write time and mask inspection time, which are directly related to the complexity of features printed on the mask. Aggressive RET increase complexity by adding assist features and by modifying existing features. Passing design intent to OPC has been identified as a solution for reducing mask complexity and cost in several recent works. The goal of design-aware OPC is to relax OPC tolerances of layout features to minimize mask cost, without sacrificing parametric yield. To convey optimal OPC tolerances for manufacturing, design optimization should drive OPC tolerance optimization using models of mask cost for devices and wires. Design optimization should be aware of impact of OPC correction levels on mask cost and performance of the design. This work introduces mask cost characterization (MCC) that quantifies OPC complexity, measured in terms of fracture count of the mask, for different OPC tolerances. MCC with different OPC tolerances is a critical step in linking design and manufacturing. In this paper, we present a MCC methodology that provides models of fracture count of standard cells and wire patterns for use in design optimization. MCC cannot be performed by designers as they do not have access to foundry OPC recipes and RET tools. To build a fracture count model, we perform OPC and fracturing on a limited set of standard cells and wire configurations with all tolerance combinations. Separately, we identify the characteristics of the layout that impact fracture count. Based on the fracture count (FC) data

Environmental forensic research for emerging contaminants in complex environmental matrices

Science.gov (United States)

The United States Environmental Protection Agency has established criteria to address many of the significant traditional pollutants demonstrated to have adverse affects on environmental quality. However, new chemicals are being created almost daily, and these new chemicals, as ...

Setting priorities for environmental restoration at the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ton, My K.; Morgan, Robert P.

1992-01-01

This paper provides an evaluation of the computerized methodologies and approaches that the Department of Energy (DOE) has developed to assist in setting cleanup priorities and in allocating Environmental Restoration funds to various activities within the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex. Issues examined include the appropriateness of the methodologies for priority setting or budget planning, their strengths and weaknesses; the limitations to the use of such systems to aid decision making; public acceptance of these systems; and the level of participation by affected or interested parties and the public in the development and implementation processes. (author)

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

2007-01-01

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

Urban habitat complexity affects species richness but not environmental filtering of morphologically-diverse ants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessandro Ossola

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Habitat complexity is a major determinant of structure and diversity of ant assemblages. Following the size-grain hypothesis, smaller ant species are likely to be advantaged in more complex habitats compared to larger species. Habitat complexity can act as an environmental filter based on species size and morphological traits, therefore affecting the overall structure and diversity of ant assemblages. In natural and semi-natural ecosystems, habitat complexity is principally regulated by ecological successions or disturbance such as fire and grazing. Urban ecosystems provide an opportunity to test relationships between habitat, ant assemblage structure and ant traits using novel combinations of habitat complexity generated and sustained by human management. We sampled ant assemblages in low-complexity and high-complexity parks, and high-complexity woodland remnants, hypothesizing that (i ant abundance and species richness would be higher in high-complexity urban habitats, (ii ant assemblages would differ between low- and high-complexity habitats and (iii ants living in high-complexity habitats would be smaller than those living in low-complexity habitats. Contrary to our hypothesis, ant species richness was higher in low-complexity habitats compared to high-complexity habitats. Overall, ant assemblages were significantly different among the habitat complexity types investigated, although ant size and morphology remained the same. Habitat complexity appears to affect the structure of ant assemblages in urban ecosystems as previously observed in natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, the habitat complexity filter does not seem to be linked to ant morphological traits related to body size.

Urban habitat complexity affects species richness but not environmental filtering of morphologically-diverse ants

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, Michael A.; Christie, Fiona J.; Hahs, Amy K.; Livesley, Stephen J.

2015-01-01

Habitat complexity is a major determinant of structure and diversity of ant assemblages. Following the size-grain hypothesis, smaller ant species are likely to be advantaged in more complex habitats compared to larger species. Habitat complexity can act as an environmental filter based on species size and morphological traits, therefore affecting the overall structure and diversity of ant assemblages. In natural and semi-natural ecosystems, habitat complexity is principally regulated by ecological successions or disturbance such as fire and grazing. Urban ecosystems provide an opportunity to test relationships between habitat, ant assemblage structure and ant traits using novel combinations of habitat complexity generated and sustained by human management. We sampled ant assemblages in low-complexity and high-complexity parks, and high-complexity woodland remnants, hypothesizing that (i) ant abundance and species richness would be higher in high-complexity urban habitats, (ii) ant assemblages would differ between low- and high-complexity habitats and (iii) ants living in high-complexity habitats would be smaller than those living in low-complexity habitats. Contrary to our hypothesis, ant species richness was higher in low-complexity habitats compared to high-complexity habitats. Overall, ant assemblages were significantly different among the habitat complexity types investigated, although ant size and morphology remained the same. Habitat complexity appears to affect the structure of ant assemblages in urban ecosystems as previously observed in natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, the habitat complexity filter does not seem to be linked to ant morphological traits related to body size. PMID:26528416

Environmental noise and noise modelling-some aspects in Malaysian development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leong, Mohd Salman; Mohd Shafiek bin Hj Yaacob

1994-01-01

Environmental noise is of growing concern in Malaysia with the increasing awareness of the need for an environmental quality consistent with improved quality of life. While noise is one of the several elements in an Environmental Impact Assessment report, the degree of emphasis in the assessment is not as thorough as other aspects in the EIA study. The measurements, prediction (if at all any), and evaluation tended to be superficial. The paper presents a summary of correct noise descriptors and annoyance assessment parameters appropriate for the evaluation of environmental noise. The paper further highlights current inadequacies in the Environmental Quality Act for noise pollution, and annoyance assessment. Some examples of local noise pollution are presented. A discussion on environmental noise modelling is presented. Examples illustrating environmental noise modelling for a mining operation and a power station are given. It is the authors' recommendation that environmental noise modelling be made mandatory in all EIA studies such that a more definitive assessment could be realised

Public involvement in environmental, safety and health issues at the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, Laura L.; Morgan, Robert P.

1992-01-01

The state of public involvement in environmental, safety, and health issues at the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex is assessed through identification of existing opportunities for public involvement and through interviews with representatives of ten local citizen groups active in these issues at weapons facilities in their communities. A framework for analyzing existing means of public involvement is developed. On the whole, opportunities for public involvement are inadequate. Provisions for public involvement are lacking in several key stages of the decision-making process. Consequently, adversarial means of public involvement have generally been more effective than cooperative means in motivating change in the Weapons Complex. Citizen advisory boards, both on the local and national level, may provide a means of improving public involvement in Weapons Complex issues. (author)

Environmental challenges and opportunities of the evolving North American electricity market : Modeling techniques and estimating environmental outcomes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patterson, Z.

2002-06-01

Background information and results of the different models publicly available used for the evaluation of environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the various jurisdictions in North America were included in this working paper. It comprised the description of eleven models and twelve modeling exercises. The information on each model varied greatly, as it is proprietary. The models described were: (1) the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (2) the Department of Energy's Policy Office Electricity Modeling System (POEMS), (3) the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) utilized by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), (4) Resources for the Future's (RFF) Haiku model, (5) the Canadian Energy Research Institute's Energy 2020 Model, (6) the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) use of ICF's Coal and Electric Utilities Model, (7) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of General Electric's Market Assessment and Portfolio Strategies (GE MAPS) model, (8) the Center for Clean Air Policy's use of GE MAPS in combination with New Energy Associates' Proscreen II, (9) the Commission for Environmental Cooperation use of the Front of Envelope Model, (10) Ontario Power Generation's use of the Utility Fuel Economics Model and National Power Model, and (11) New York State Department of Public Service's (NYDPS) Final Generic Environmental Impact Statement using New Energy Associates' PROMOD. Also included in this working paper was a comparison of the results of models and modeling exercises on which the estimation of the environmental effects of electricity market restructuring in the United States was based. 18 refs., 5 tabs

Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex environmental monitoring report for calendar year 1985

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-05-01

At the Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex all effluent streams are sampled regularly and analyzed to assess compliance with applicable environmental standards. Radioactivity is measured in air, water, fish, produce, soil, sediments and vegetation; and radiation doses to the public are calculated. The calculated public radiation doses from process effluents are within US Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental protection Agency (USEPA) standards. An extensive amount of engineering effort is underway to modify existing airborne radioactivity emissions sources to further reduce emissions in compliance with DOE policy. Non-radioactive effluents either presently comply with federal standards or will comply upon completion of planned projects. CY-1985 was the fifth full year under the current National Pullutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit for liquid effluents, and the third year since the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA) assumed responsibility for administering the NPDES program. Compliance with the permit's discharge limits, with the exception of violations due to the Coal Pile Treatment Facility and the Biodenitrification Plant for which projects to improve performance are currently underway, did not present any significant problems. Overall compliance was 95.5%. There was increased activity in the areas of groundwater monitoring, hazardous waste and PCB waste management to comply with Federal regulations

MONNIE 2000: A description of a model to calculate environmental costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanemaaijer, A.H.; Kirkx, M.C.A.P.

2001-02-01

A new model (MONNIE 2000) was developed by the RIVM in the Netherlands in 2000 to calculate environmental costs on a macro level. The model, it's theoretical backgrounds and the technical aspects are described, making it attractive to both the user and the designer of the model. A user manual on how to calculate with the model is included. The basic principle of the model is the use of a harmonised method for calculating environmental costs, which provides the user with an output that can easily be compared with and used in other economic statistics and macro-economic models in the Netherlands. Input for the model are yearly figures on operational costs, investments and savings from environmental measures. With MONNIE 2000 calculated environmental costs per policy target group, economic sector and theme can be shown, With this model the burden of environmental measures on the economic sectors and the environmental expenditures of the government can be presented as well. MONNIE 2000 is developed in Visual Basic and by using Excel as input and output a user-friendly data exchange is realised. 12 refs

A preliminary investigation of the applicability of surface complexation modeling to the understanding of transportation cask weeping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granstaff, V.E.; Chambers, W.B.; Doughty, D.H.

1994-01-01

A new application for surface complexation modeling is described. These models, which describe chemical equilibria among aqueous and adsorbed species, have typically been used for predicting groundwater transport of contaminants by modeling the natural adsorbents as various metal oxides. Our experiments suggest that this type of modeling can also explain stainless steel surface contamination and decontamination mechanisms. Stainless steel transportation casks, when submerged in a spent fuel storage pool at nuclear power stations, can become contaminated with radionuclides such as 137 Cs, 134 Cs, and 60 Co. Subsequent release or desorption of these contaminants under varying environmental conditions occasionally results in the phenomenon known as open-quotes cask weeping.close quotes We have postulated that contaminants in the storage pool adsorb onto the hydrous metal oxide surface of the passivated stainless steel and are subsequently released (by conversion from a fixed to a removable form) during transportation, due to varying environmental factors, such as humidity, road salt, dirt, and acid rain. It is well known that 304 stainless steel has a chromium enriched passive surface layer; thus its adsorption behavior should be similar to that of a mixed chromium/iron oxide. To help us interpret our studies of reversible binding of dissolved metals on stainless steel surfaces, we have studied the adsorption of Co +2 on Cr 2 O 3 . The data are interpreted using electrostatic surface complexation models. The FITEQL computer program was used to obtain the model binding constants and site densities from the experimental data. The MINTEQA2 computer speciation model was used, with the fitted constants, in an attempt to validate this approach

Distributed Recurrent Neural Forward Models with Synaptic Adaptation and CPG-based control for Complex Behaviors of Walking Robots

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sakyasingha eDasgupta

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Walking animals, like stick insects, cockroaches or ants, demonstrate a fascinating range of locomotive abilities and complex behaviors. The locomotive behaviors can consist of a variety of walking patterns along with adaptation that allow the animals to deal with changes in environmental conditions, like uneven terrains, gaps, obstacles etc. Biological study has revealed that such complex behaviors are a result of a combination of biomechanics and neural mechanism thus representing the true nature of embodied interactions. While the biomechanics helps maintain flexibility and sustain a variety of movements, the neural mechanisms generate movements while making appropriate predictions crucial for achieving adaptation. Such predictions or planning ahead can be achieved by way of internal models that are grounded in the overall behavior of the animal. Inspired by these findings, we present here, an artificial bio-inspired walking system which effectively combines biomechanics (in terms of the body and leg structures with the underlying neural mechanisms. The neural mechanisms consist of 1 central pattern generator based control for generating basic rhythmic patterns and coordinated movements, 2 distributed (at each leg recurrent neural network based adaptive forward models with efference copies as internal models for sensory predictions and instantaneous state estimations, and 3 searching and elevation control for adapting the movement of an individual leg to deal with different environmental conditions. Using simulations we show that this bio-inspired approach with adaptive internal models allows the walking robot to perform complex locomotive behaviors as observed in insects, including walking on undulated terrains, crossing large gaps as well as climbing over high obstacles. Furthermore we demonstrate that the newly developed recurrent network based approach to sensorimotor prediction outperforms the previous state of the art adaptive neuron

Developing Seventh Grade Students' Understanding of Complex Environmental Problems with Systems Tools and Representations: a Quasi-experimental Study

Science.gov (United States)

Doganca Kucuk, Zerrin; Saysel, Ali Kerem

2017-03-01

A systems-based classroom intervention on environmental education was designed for seventh grade students; the results were evaluated to see its impact on the development of systems thinking skills and standard science achievement and whether the systems approach is a more effective way to teach environmental issues that are dynamic and complex. A quasi-experimental methodology was used to compare performances of the participants in various dimensions, including systems thinking skills, competence in dynamic environmental problem solving and success in science achievement tests. The same pre-, post- and delayed tests were used with both the comparison and experimental groups in the same public middle school in Istanbul. Classroom activities designed for the comparison group (N = 20) followed the directives of the Science and Technology Curriculum, while the experimental group (N = 22) covered the same subject matter through activities benefiting from systems tools and representations such as behaviour over time graphs, causal loop diagrams, stock-flow structures and hands-on dynamic modelling. After a one-month systems-based instruction, the experimental group demonstrated significantly better systems thinking and dynamic environmental problem solving skills. Achievement in dynamic problem solving was found to be relatively stable over time. However, standard science achievement did not improve at all. This paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the results, the weaknesses of the curriculum and educational implications.

Environmental surveillance for the INEL Radioactive-Waste-Management complex. Annual report 1981

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janke, D.H.; Zahn, T.P.

1982-09-01

The 1981 environmental surveillance report for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory contains data and discussions about routine radiological monitoring of the atmospheric, hydrologic, and geologic environments of the RWMC. Additional discussions include results of routine monitoring of two surplus facilities, the Stationary Low-Power Reactor No. 1 Surplus Area and the Organic Moderated Reactor Experiment. Each area has produced localized effects on the environment, but containment is well within the INEL site boundary

Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

The use of models to assess environmental impacts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gustafson, P.F.

1978-01-01

Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS IN LEADERSHIP MODEL

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Jin ZHANG; Shouyang WANG; Lei ZU

2008-01-01

International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) are a form of cooperation ratified by countries which can improve the management of shared environmental resources. The authors analyze the stability of International Environmental Agreements in leadership model. In 2006, Diamantoudi & Sartzetakis found that a stable coalition consists of either 2, 3, or 4 members if the number of countries is greater than 4. Their model is reconsidered. It is shown that the size of stable IEAs decreases from 3 to 2 when the total number of countries involved increases. However, a situation that can guarantee 4 to be the size of stable IEAs could not be found.

Enhanced fluorescence sensitivity by coupling yttrium-analyte complexes and three-way fast high-performance liquid chromatography data modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alcaraz, Mirta R.; Culzoni, María J., E-mail: mculzoni@fbcb.unl.edu.ar; Goicoechea, Héctor C., E-mail: hgoico@fbcb.unl.edu.ar

2016-01-01

The present study reports a sensitive chromatographic method for the analysis of seven fluoroquinolones (FQs) in environmental water samples, by coupling yttrium-analyte complex and three-way chromatographic data modeling. This method based on the use of HPLC-FSFD does not require complex or tedious sample treatments or enrichment processes before the analysis, due to the significant fluorescence increments of the analytes reached by the presence of Y{sup 3+}. Enhancement achieved for the FQs signals obtained after Y{sup 3+} addition reaches 103- to 1743-fold. Prediction results corresponding to the application of MCR-ALS to the validation set showed relative error of prediction (REP%) values below 10% in all cases. A recovery study that includes the simultaneous determination of the seven FQs in three different environmental aqueous matrices was conducted. The recovery studies assert the efficiency and the accuracy of the proposed method. The LOD values calculated are in the order of part per trillion (below 0.5 ng mL{sup −1} for all the FQs, except for enoxacin). It is noteworthy to mention that the method herein proposed, which does not include pre-concentration steps, allows reaching LOD values in the same order of magnitude than those achieved by more sophisticated methods based on SPE and UHPLC-MS/MS. - Highlights: • Highly sensitive method for the analysis of seven fluoroquinolones. • Coupling of yttrium-analyte complex and three-way modeling. • Complex or tedious sample treatments or enrichment processes are nor required. • Accuracy on the quantitation of fluoroquinolones in real water river samples.

Modeling the Structure and Complexity of Engineering Routine Design Problems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Wits, Wessel Willems; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.

2011-01-01

This paper proposes a model to structure routine design problems as well as a model of its design complexity. The idea is that having a proper model of the structure of such problems enables understanding its complexity, and likewise, a proper understanding of its complexity enables the development

Specification and Aggregation Errors in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwmeester, Maaike C.; Oosterhaven, Jan

This article considers the specification and aggregation errors that arise from estimating embodied emissions and embodied water use with environmentally extended national input-output (IO) models, instead of with an environmentally extended international IO model. Model specification errors result

A New Computationally Frugal Method For Sensitivity Analysis Of Environmental Models

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, O.; Hill, M. C.; Clark, M. P.; Weerts, A.; Teuling, R.; Borgonovo, E.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2013-12-01

Effective and efficient parameter sensitivity analysis methods are crucial to understand the behaviour of complex environmental models and use of models in risk assessment. This paper proposes a new computationally frugal method for analyzing parameter sensitivity: the Distributed Evaluation of Local Sensitivity Analysis (DELSA). The DELSA method can be considered a hybrid of local and global methods, and focuses explicitly on multiscale evaluation of parameter sensitivity across the parameter space. Results of the DELSA method are compared with the popular global, variance-based Sobol' method and the delta method. We assess the parameter sensitivity of both (1) a simple non-linear reservoir model with only two parameters, and (2) five different "bucket-style" hydrologic models applied to a medium-sized catchment (200 km2) in the Belgian Ardennes. Results show that in both the synthetic and real-world examples, the global Sobol' method and the DELSA method provide similar sensitivities, with the DELSA method providing more detailed insight at much lower computational cost. The ability to understand how sensitivity measures vary through parameter space with modest computational requirements provides exciting new opportunities.

Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

2010-12-01

The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

How Participatory Should Environmental Governance Be? Testing the Applicability of the Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model in Public Environmental Decision-Making

Science.gov (United States)

Lührs, Nikolas; Jager, Nicolas W.; Challies, Edward; Newig, Jens

2018-02-01

Public participation is potentially useful to improve public environmental decision-making and management processes. In corporate management, the Vroom-Yetton-Jago normative decision-making model has served as a tool to help managers choose appropriate degrees of subordinate participation for effective decision-making given varying decision-making contexts. But does the model recommend participatory mechanisms that would actually benefit environmental management? This study empirically tests the improved Vroom-Jago version of the model in the public environmental decision-making context. To this end, the key variables of the Vroom-Jago model are operationalized and adapted to a public environmental governance context. The model is tested using data from a meta-analysis of 241 published cases of public environmental decision-making, yielding three main sets of findings: (1) The Vroom-Jago model proves limited in its applicability to public environmental governance due to limited variance in its recommendations. We show that adjustments to key model equations make it more likely to produce meaningful recommendations. (2) We find that in most of the studied cases, public environmental managers (implicitly) employ levels of participation close to those that would have been recommended by the model. (3) An ANOVA revealed that such cases, which conform to model recommendations, generally perform better on stakeholder acceptance and environmental standards of outputs than those that diverge from the model. Public environmental management thus benefits from carefully selected and context-sensitive modes of participation.

The Impact of Environmental Complexity and Team Training on Team Processes and Performance in Multi-Team Environments

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Cobb, Marshall

1999-01-01

This study examined how manipulating the level of environmental complexity and the type of team training given to subject volunteers impacted important team process behaviors and performance outcomes...

Macro-institutional Complexity in Logistics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wessel, Frederic; Kinra, Aseem; Kotzab, Herbert

2016-01-01

structure and transactional costs, the concept of environmental complexity is applied to the logistics management perspective. Thereby, the impacts which a given framework on a macro-institutional level might have on the situation and leeway in decision-making at the firm (micro) or the supply chain (meso......In this paper, the interlink between the concept of macro-institutional complexity in logistics and the dynamics in the logistics practice of Eastern Europe will be examined. Referring to the importance of different authors having ascribed to the external environmental uncertainty on organizational......) levels will be analysed. Furthermore, a quantitative modelling approach will be presented and exemplified by using the case of logistics infrastructure in Eastern Europe....

A science data gateway for environmental management: A SCIENCE DATA GATEWAY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Agarwal, Deborah A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Faybishenko, Boris [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Krishnan, Harinarayan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Kushner, Gary [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Lansing, Carina [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Porter, Ellen [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Romosan, Alexandru [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Shoshani, Arie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wainwright, Haruko [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Weidmer, Arthur [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wu, Kesheng [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-10-12

Science data gateways are effective in providing complex science data collections to the world-wide user communities. In this paper we describe a gateway for the Advanced Simulation Capability for Environmental Management (ASCEM) framework. Built on top of established web service technologies, the ASCEM data gateway is specifically designed for environmental modeling applications. Its key distinguishing features include: (1) handling of complex spatiotemporal data, (2) offering a variety of selective data access mechanisms, (3) providing state of the art plotting and visualization of spatiotemporal data records, and (4) integrating seamlessly with a distributed workflow system using a RESTful interface. ASCEM project scientists have been using this data gateway since 2011.

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry de-Graft Acquah

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

2002-01-01

Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

Environmental Perception as a Diagnostic Probe of Environmental Complexity Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, Mirlaine R.; Macedo, Renato L. G.; Freitas, Matheus P.; Nunes, Cleiton A.; Venturin, Nelson

2015-01-01

Purpose: Educational methods to diagnose and improve the level of environmental conception are required. The present work reports a methodology based on studies about the environmental perception of a university public, divided into general students and those related to the forest sciences, who are involved with disciplines and researches related…

Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

2015-02-01

Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling of information processes management of educational complex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Оксана Николаевна Ромашкова

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This work concerns information model of the educational complex which includes several schools. A classification of educational complexes formed in Moscow is given. There are also a consideration of the existing organizational structure of the educational complex and a suggestion of matrix management structure. Basic management information processes of the educational complex were conceptualized.

Analyzing interaction of electricity markets and environmental policies using equilibrium models

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yihsu

Around the world, the electric sector is evolving from a system of regulated vertically-integrated monopolies to a complex system of competing generation companies, unregulated traders, and regulated transmission and distribution. One emerging challenge faced by environmental policymakers and electricity industry is the interaction between electricity markets and environmental policies. The objective of this dissertation is to examine these interactions using large-scale computational models of electricity markets based on noncooperative game theory. In particular, this dissertation is comprised of four essays. The first essay studies the interaction of the United States Environmental Protection Agency NOx Budget Program and the mid-Atlantic electricity market. This research quantifies emissions, economic inefficiencies, price distortions, and overall social welfare under various market assumptions using engineering-economic models. The models calculate equilibria for imperfectly competitive markets---Cournot oligopoly---considering the actual landscape of power plants and transmission lines, and including the possibility of market power in the NOx allowances market. The second essay extends the results from first essay and models imperfectly competitive markets using a Stackelberg or leader-follower formulation. A leader in the power and NO x markets is assumed to have perfect foresight of its rivals' responses. The rivals' best response functions are explicitly embedded in the leader's constraints. The solutions quantify the extent to which a leader in the markets can extract economic rents on the expense of its followers. The third essay investigates the effect of implementing the European Union (EU) CO2 Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) on wholesale power prices in the Western European electricity market. This research uses theoretical and computational modeling approaches to quantify the degree to which CO2 costs were passed on to power prices, and quantifies the

Complex networks under dynamic repair model

Science.gov (United States)

Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

2018-01-01

Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

2013-09-01

Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

2015-04-01

In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

Inner- and outer-sphere complexation of ions at the goethite-solution interface

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rahnemaie, R.; Hiemstra, T.; Riemsdijk, van W.H.

2006-01-01

Formation of inner- and outer-sphere complexes of environmentally important divalent ions on the goethite surface was examined by applying the charge distribution CD model for inner- and outer-sphere complexation. The model assumes spatial charge distribution between the surface (0-plane) and the

Interval-parameter chance-constraint programming model for end-of-life vehicles management under rigorous environmental regulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Simic, Vladimir

2016-06-01

As the number of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) is estimated to increase to 79.3 million units per year by 2020 (e.g., 40 million units were generated in 2010), there is strong motivation to effectively manage this fast-growing waste flow. Intensive work on management of ELVs is necessary in order to more successfully tackle this important environmental challenge. This paper proposes an interval-parameter chance-constraint programming model for end-of-life vehicles management under rigorous environmental regulations. The proposed model can incorporate various uncertainty information in the modeling process. The complex relationships between different ELV management sub-systems are successfully addressed. Particularly, the formulated model can help identify optimal patterns of procurement from multiple sources of ELV supply, production and inventory planning in multiple vehicle recycling factories, and allocation of sorted material flows to multiple final destinations under rigorous environmental regulations. A case study is conducted in order to demonstrate the potentials and applicability of the proposed model. Various constraint-violation probability levels are examined in detail. Influences of parameter uncertainty on model solutions are thoroughly investigated. Useful solutions for the management of ELVs are obtained under different probabilities of violating system constraints. The formulated model is able to tackle a hard, uncertainty existing ELV management problem. The presented model has advantages in providing bases for determining long-term ELV management plans with desired compromises between economic efficiency of vehicle recycling system and system-reliability considerations. The results are helpful for supporting generation and improvement of ELV management plans. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Models in environmental regulatory decision making

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

2007-01-01

.... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

Computational Modeling of Complex Protein Activity Networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schivo, Stefano; Leijten, Jeroen; Karperien, Marcel; Post, Janine N.; Prignet, Claude

2017-01-01

Because of the numerous entities interacting, the complexity of the networks that regulate cell fate makes it impossible to analyze and understand them using the human brain alone. Computational modeling is a powerful method to unravel complex systems. We recently described the development of a

Environmental cost benefit analysis for a coal-fired power plant. An application of dispersion modelling coupled with GIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oguz, M.; Balta, T.

1998-01-01

In this study, local air quality impacts of a proposed conventional coal-fired power at Icel region has been investigated using numerical dispersion modeling studies coupled with a GIS application. Within the impact area of the facility, Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST2) dispersion model has been used to estimate ground level concentrations of air pollutants originating from the power plant. For the same impact area, GIS applications have been utilized to determine the agricultural yield distribution. For this purpose, relevant satellite images were digitized, classified and statistically analyzed. Based on the predicted ground level pollutant concentrations and sensitivity of the agricultural crops to those, agricultural yield loss was estimated for the impact area. The results have been quantified and validated in monetary terms for the purpose of performing an environmental cost benefit analysis. Comparison of the conventional cost benefit analysis with the environmental cost benefit analysis showed the significance of the external cost of the proposed facility, resulting from the environmental damages. 6 refs

Environmentally-relevant concentrations of Al(III) and Fe(III) cations induce aggregation of free DNA by complexation with phosphate group.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Chao; Kang, Fuxing; Zhang, Wei; Shou, Weijun; Hu, Xiaojie; Gao, Yanzheng

2017-10-15

Environmental persistence of free DNA is influenced by its complexation with other chemical species and its aggregation mechanisms. However, it is not well-known how naturally-abundant metal ions, e.g., Al(III) and Fe(III), influence DNA aggregation. This study investigated aggregation behaviors of model DNA from salmon testes as influenced by metal cations, and elucidated the predominant mechanism responsible for DNA aggregation. Compared to monovalent (K + and Na + ) and divalent (Ca 2+ and Mg 2+ ) cations, Al(III) and Fe(III) species in aqueous solution caused rapid DNA aggregations. The maximal DNA aggregation occurred at 0.05 mmol/L Al(III) or 0.075 mmol/L Fe(III), respectively. A combination of atomic force microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy revealed that Al(III) and Fe(III) complexed with negatively charged phosphate groups to neutralize DNA charges, resulting in decreased electrostatic repulsion and subsequent DNA aggregation. Zeta potential measurements and molecular computation further support this mechanism. Furthermore, DNA aggregation was enhanced at higher temperature and near neutral pH. Therefore, DNA aggregation is collectively determined by many environmental factors such as ion species, temperature, and solution pH. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

2018-01-01

Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elert, M.

1996-09-01

In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

Linking Bayesian and agent-based models to simulate complex social-ecological systems in semi-arid regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aloah J Pope

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions in the Rio Sonora Watershed. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent’s water demand. Changes in depth-to-groundwater feedback to influence agent behavior, as well as determine unique vegetation classes within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation class then provides varying stakeholder-defined quality values of ecosystem services. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine effects on both the ecological and social system of semi-arid riparian corridors under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

Flexible Environmental Modeling with Python and Open - GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Delottier, Hugo; Cousquer, Yohann

2015-04-01

Numerical modeling now represents a prominent task of environmental studies. During the last decades, numerous commercial programs have been made available to environmental modelers. These software applications offer user-friendly graphical user interfaces that allow an efficient management of many case studies. However, they suffer from a lack of flexibility and closed-source policies impede source code reviewing and enhancement for original studies. Advanced modeling studies require flexible tools capable of managing thousands of model runs for parameter optimization, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In addition, there is a growing need for the coupling of various numerical models associating, for instance, groundwater flow modeling to multi-species geochemical reactions. Researchers have produced hundreds of open-source powerful command line programs. However, there is a need for a flexible graphical user interface allowing an efficient processing of geospatial data that comes along any environmental study. Here, we present the advantages of using the free and open-source Qgis platform and the Python scripting language for conducting environmental modeling studies. The interactive graphical user interface is first used for the visualization and pre-processing of input geospatial datasets. Python scripting language is then employed for further input data processing, call to one or several models, and post-processing of model outputs. Model results are eventually sent back to the GIS program, processed and visualized. This approach combines the advantages of interactive graphical interfaces and the flexibility of Python scripting language for data processing and model calls. The numerous python modules available facilitate geospatial data processing and numerical analysis of model outputs. Once input data has been prepared with the graphical user interface, models may be run thousands of times from the command line with sequential or parallel calls. We

Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

2009-01-01

Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

Future Oil Spills and Possibilities for Intervention: A Model for the Coupled Human-Environmental Resource Extraction System

Science.gov (United States)

Shughrue, C. M.; Werner, B.; Nugnug, P. T.

2010-12-01

The catastrophic Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlights the risks for widespread environmental damage resulting from petroleum resource extraction. Possibilities for amelioration of these risks depend critically on understanding the dynamics and nonlinear interactions between various components of the coupled human-environmental resource extraction system. We use a complexity analysis to identify the levels of description and time scales at which these interactions are strongest, and then use the analysis as the basis for an agent-based numerical model with which decadal trends can be analyzed. Oil industry economic and technological activity and associated oil spills are components of a complex system that is coupled to natural environment, legislation, regulation, media, and resistance systems over annual to decadal time scales. In the model, oil spills are produced stochastically with a range of magnitudes depending on a reliability-engineering-based assessment of failure for the technology employed, human factors including compliance with operating procedures, and risks associated with the drilling environment. Oil industry agents determine drilling location and technological investment using a cost-benefit analysis relating projected revenue from added production to technology cost and government regulation. Media outlet agents reporting on the oil industry and environmental damage from oil spills assess the impacts of aggressively covering a story on circulation increases, advertiser concerns and potential loss of information sources. Environmental advocacy group agents increase public awareness of environmental damage (through media and public contact), solicit memberships and donations, and apply direct pressure on legislators for policy change. Heterogeneous general public agents adjust their desire for change in the level of regulation, contact their representatives or participate in resistance via protest by considering media sources, personal

Environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials: Review of modeling and analytical studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gottschalk, Fadri; Sun, TianYin; Nowack, Bernd

2013-01-01

Scientific consensus predicts that the worldwide use of engineered nanomaterials (ENM) leads to their release into the environment. We reviewed the available literature concerning environmental concentrations of six ENMs (TiO 2 , ZnO, Ag, fullerenes, CNT and CeO 2 ) in surface waters, wastewater treatment plant effluents, biosolids, sediments, soils and air. Presently, a dozen modeling studies provide environmental concentrations for ENM and a handful of analytical works can be used as basis for a preliminary validation. There are still major knowledge gaps (e.g. on ENM production, application and release) that affect the modeled values, but over all an agreement on the order of magnitude of the environmental concentrations can be reached. True validation of the modeled values is difficult because trace analytical methods that are specific for ENM detection and quantification are not available. The modeled and measured results are not always comparable due to the different forms and sizes of particles that these two approaches target. -- Highlights: •Modeled environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed. •Measured environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed. •Possible validation of modeled data by measurements is critically evaluated. •Different approaches in modeling and measurement methods complicate validation. -- Modeled and measured environmental concentrations of engineered nanomaterials are reviewed and critically discussed

LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR HYPOXIA RELATED ISSUES

Science.gov (United States)

An environmental assessment tool to evaluate the impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants discharged from Mississippi River basins into the Gulf of Mexico and to assess their effects on receiving water quality will be described. This system (Louisiana Environmental Modeling S...

Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

2016-01-01

Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

Innovative Research on Teaching Model of Environmental Law Courses in China

OpenAIRE

Yuling Li

2013-01-01

At present, the teaching model of environmental law courses in China is mainly lecture-based learning (LBL) teaching model whose disadvantages are closeness, unidirection and weak teaching practice. This model does not fit in with the characteristics of environmental law courses and the objective changes of ecological civilized society for the demand of talents of environmental law. Therefore, we should actively reform the current single teaching model, learn from foreign advanced teaching co...

National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

1995-04-01

The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

2017-01-01

, with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

2008-09-01

The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

Environmental Implementation Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-02-01

The Environmental Implementation Plan (EIP) is a dynamic long-range environmental-protection plan for SRS. The EIP communicates the current and future (five year) environmental plans from individual organizations and divisions as well as site environmental initiatives which are designed to protect the environment and meet or exceed compliance with changing environmental/ regulatory requirements. Communication with all site organizations is essential for making the site environmental planning process work. Demonstrating environmental excellence is a high priority embodied in DOE and WSRC policy. Because of your support and participation in the three EIP initiatives; Reflections, Sectional Revision, and Integrated Planning, improvements are being made to the EIP and SRS environmental protection programs. I appreciate the ''Partnership in Environmental Excellence'' formed by the environmental coordinators and professionals who work daily toward our goal of compliance and environmental excellence. I look forward to seeing continued success and improvement in our environmental protection programs through combined efforts of all site organizations to protect our employees, the public health, and the environment. Together, we will achieve our site vision for SRS to be the recognized model for Environmental Excellence in the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex

Environmental Implementation Plan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-02-01

The Environmental Implementation Plan (EIP) is a dynamic long-range environmental-protection plan for SRS. The EIP communicates the current and future (five year) environmental plans from individual organizations and divisions as well as site environmental initiatives which are designed to protect the environment and meet or exceed compliance with changing environmental/ regulatory requirements. Communication with all site organizations is essential for making the site environmental planning process work. Demonstrating environmental excellence is a high priority embodied in DOE and WSRC policy. Because of your support and participation in the three EIP initiatives; Reflections, Sectional Revision, and Integrated Planning, improvements are being made to the EIP and SRS environmental protection programs. I appreciate the ``Partnership in Environmental Excellence`` formed by the environmental coordinators and professionals who work daily toward our goal of compliance and environmental excellence. I look forward to seeing continued success and improvement in our environmental protection programs through combined efforts of all site organizations to protect our employees, the public health, and the environment. Together, we will achieve our site vision for SRS to be the recognized model for Environmental Excellence in the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex.

Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Monte, L.

1990-01-01

In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Neil

2011-01-01

There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

2016-12-01

More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

Model of environmental management system for environmentally sustainable universities training in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivas Marin, Maria Isabel

2011-01-01

Sustainable campuses have become one of the main objectives of the Agendas University as a result of the impacts generated by the activities developed there and affect the environment. Given this, there are environmental management systems which are the set of practices, procedures, processes and resources needed to meet environmental regulations on business and are focused on reducing the impacts on the environment and the efficiency of processes. College- level companies still being considered, these systems do not work efficiently, it is necessary and urgent that the adequacy of a model environmental management system and that, through education and research, will help society to achieve the transition to sustainable lifestyles.

Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

CERN Document Server

Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

2015-01-01

This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

Complexity, rhizome and magma, three key elements in pattern building in environmental research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera de Echeverri, Ana Patricia

2002-01-01

The following reading synthesizes the rur-urban-agrary environmental research pattern that appear from the research Caldas Agrary Environmental Profile (IDEA, National University, Manizales - Colciencias, 1998 - 2000). This pattern is constructed from three ideas of the contemporary philosophy: complexity, rhizome and magma that comes from another disciplines: the mathematics, botanic, and geology. The genetics-historical method that follows this article, starts with a critical analysis to the relation forms between society and nature that belongs to the modernity, to do then, a presentation of the influence of the ecology in the construction of new relations between society and nature, culture and nature, and the influence of the theory of systems in a systemic view of society, culture, and nature. Finish with a presentation of the pattern ecosystem-culture made for Augusto Angel Maya and the critical-development that becomes form this pattern, that we had named rur-urban-agrary rhizoma. For example we show how this research pattern let us to amplify the methodology of river basins that we use inside the Agrary Environmental Profile

Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex. [Construction and operation of proposed facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

1982-08-01

The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report.

Modeling Knowledge in Environmental Analysis: A New Approach to Soundscape Ecology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavia Milone

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Planning activities are inherently technical, political and organizational exercises, being both constructions of action optimization over time and “social” organizations promoting action. Thus, they require organization and consensus. In this context, the concept of processes that develop based on diffused interactions between different agents appears useful and rather effective. Cognitive agents and reactive agents coexist in a system of relations and interactions. This allows the context in which environmental management and/or planning processes take place to be modeled in its essential parts. Scholars and researchers have often wondered if behavioral proxies of the environment-agent can be singled out for possible inclusion in a multi-agent system (MAS layout. This challenge is of particular interest today, considering the potential offered by the spread of intelligent sensor networks, able to represent and model various “behaviors” of the environment-agent. Today’s growing interest in research in the field of planning is enhanced by an awareness of the complexity issue embedded in planning. In this framework, this paper is realized as a pilot study on the knowledge of sound and soundscapes as elements characterizing the environment-agent in the context of environmental planning processes. The study reflects a contextual difficulty of collecting extensive data in uneasy conditions: nevertheless it reports results and suggestions useful in an innovative MAS-oriented perspective.

Universal correlators for multi-arc complex matrix models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akemann, G.

1997-01-01

The correlation functions of the multi-arc complex matrix model are shown to be universal for any finite number of arcs. The universality classes are characterized by the support of the eigenvalue density and are conjectured to fall into the same classes as the ones recently found for the Hermitian model. This is explicitly shown to be true for the case of two arcs, apart from the known result for one arc. The basic tool is the iterative solution of the loop equation for the complex matrix model with multiple arcs, which provides all multi-loop correlators up to an arbitrary genus. Explicit results for genus one are given for any number of arcs. The two-arc solution is investigated in detail, including the double-scaling limit. In addition universal expressions for the string susceptibility are given for both the complex and Hermitian model. (orig.)

Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2013-05-01

There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeh, Gour T.; Gwo, Jin Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D.; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steven B.

2013-01-01

There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

Developing Seventh Grade Students' Understanding of Complex Environmental Problems with Systems Tools and Representations: A Quasi-Experimental Study

Science.gov (United States)

Doganca Kucuk, Zerrin; Saysel, Ali Kerem

2018-01-01

A systems-based classroom intervention on environmental education was designed for seventh grade students; the results were evaluated to see its impact on the development of systems thinking skills and standard science achievement and whether the systems approach is a more effective way to teach environmental issues that are dynamic and complex. A…

A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

2014-01-01

We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

CERN Document Server

Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

2014-01-01

Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

2018-03-01

The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

1992-01-01

The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

X. Gu

2005-11-01

Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

Reassessing Geophysical Models of the Bushveld Complex in 3D

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, J.; Webb, S. J.; Finn, C.

2012-12-01

Conceptual geophysical models of the Bushveld Igneous Complex show three possible geometries for its mafic component: 1) Separate intrusions with vertical feeders for the eastern and western lobes (Cousins, 1959) 2) Separate dipping sheets for the two lobes (Du Plessis and Kleywegt, 1987) 3) A single saucer-shaped unit connected at depth in the central part between the two lobes (Cawthorn et al, 1998) Model three incorporates isostatic adjustment of the crust in response to the weight of the dense mafic material. The model was corroborated by results of a broadband seismic array over southern Africa, known as the Southern African Seismic Experiment (SASE) (Nguuri, et al, 2001; Webb et al, 2004). This new information about the crustal thickness only became available in the last decade and could not be considered in the earlier models. Nevertheless, there is still on-going debate as to which model is correct. All of the models published up to now have been done in 2 or 2.5 dimensions. This is not well suited to modelling the complex geometry of the Bushveld intrusion. 3D modelling takes into account effects of variations in geometry and geophysical properties of lithologies in a full three dimensional sense and therefore affects the shape and amplitude of calculated fields. The main question is how the new knowledge of the increased crustal thickness, as well as the complexity of the Bushveld Complex, will impact on the gravity fields calculated for the existing conceptual models, when modelling in 3D. The three published geophysical models were remodelled using full 3Dl potential field modelling software, and including crustal thickness obtained from the SASE. The aim was not to construct very detailed models, but to test the existing conceptual models in an equally conceptual way. Firstly a specific 2D model was recreated in 3D, without crustal thickening, to establish the difference between 2D and 3D results. Then the thicker crust was added. Including the less

Geometric Modelling with a-Complexes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gerritsen, B.H.M.; Werff, K. van der; Veltkamp, R.C.

2001-01-01

The shape of real objects can be so complicated, that only a sampling data point set can accurately represent them. Analytic descriptions are too complicated or impossible. Natural objects, for example, can be vague and rough with many holes. For this kind of modelling, a-complexes offer advantages

The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A toolbox for water- and environmental-resources management

Science.gov (United States)

Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Hay, L.E.; ,

2005-01-01

The increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require modeling approaches that incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific and software disciplines. To address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the Modular Modeling System (MMS). MMS is an integrated system of computer software for model development, integration, and application. Its modular design allows a high level of flexibility and adaptability to enable modelers to incorporate their own software into a rich array of built-in models and modeling tools. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully- integrated decision support systems. A geographic information system (GIS) interface, the USGS GIS Weasel, has been integrated with MMS to enable spatial delineation and characterization of basin and ecosystem features, and to provide objective parameter-estimation methods for models using available digital data. MMS provides optimization and sensitivity-analysis tools to analyze model parameters and evaluate the extent to which uncertainty in model parameters affects uncertainty in simulation results. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, to develop models to evaluate and apply optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. This decision support system approach has been developed, tested, and implemented in the Gunnison, Yakima, San Joaquin, Rio Grande, and Truckee River basins of the western United States. MMS is currently being coupled with the U.S. Forest Service model SIMulating Patterns and Processes at Landscape Scales (SIMPPLLE) to assess the effects of alternative vegetation-management strategies on a variety of hydrological and ecological responses. Initial development and testing of the MMS-SIMPPLLE integration is

Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

Science.gov (United States)

Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

2017-08-01

The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

ISCMEM Working Group One Presentation, presentation with the purpose of fostering the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases.

A Survey of Precipitation Data for Environmental Modeling

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This report explores the types of precipitation data available for environmental modeling. Precipitation is the main driver in the hydrological cycle and modelers use this information to understand water quality and water availability. Models use observed precipitation informatio...

Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.

2014-01-01

Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with

Modelling consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhu, X.; Ierland, van E.C.

2005-01-01

We develop a theoretical Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model that explicitly includes the environmental input in production functions and the consumers' preferences for environmental quality in utility functions. We empirically apply the model to provide some insights into the effects of the

Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

CERN Document Server

Gorban, Alexander N

2011-01-01

This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

An objective decision model of power grid environmental protection based on environmental influence index and energy-saving and emission-reducing index

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Jun-shu; Jin, Yan-ming; Hao, Wei-hua

2017-01-01

Based on modelling the environmental influence index of power transmission and transformation project and energy-saving and emission-reducing index of source-grid-load of power system, this paper establishes an objective decision model of power grid environmental protection, with constraints of power grid environmental protection objectives being legal and economical, and considering both positive and negative influences of grid on the environmental in all-life grid cycle. This model can be used to guide the programming work of power grid environmental protection. A numerical simulation of Jiangsu province’s power grid environmental protection objective decision model has been operated, and the results shows that the maximum goal of energy-saving and emission-reducing benefits would be reached firstly as investment increasing, and then the minimum goal of environmental influence.

Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2011-10-15

Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

2011-01-01

Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

2013-04-01

According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

Environmental Restoration and Waste Management manpower needs assessment: US Department of Energy complex

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmes, C.W.; Lewis, R.E.; Hunt, S.T. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Finn, M.G. (Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States))

1992-06-01

A study was conducted Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc. to assess the supply and demand for 53 scientific, engineering, and technical occupations relevant to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM). These assessments were made by examining budget projections and the input of program/project and human resources managers throughout the DOE complex. Quantitative projections of full-time equivalent employees slots for each occupation have been developed for the 1993--1997 time frame. Qualitative assessments of the factors that affect recruitment, staffing, and retention are also reported. The implications of the study are discussed within the likely skills mix of the future workforce and the education and organization interventions most likely to address the needs of the DOE complex.

International technology transfer to support the environmental restoration needs of the DOE complex

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DuCharme, A.R.; Jimenez, R.D.; Roberds, W.J.

1992-01-01

One of the principal objectives of the International Technology Exchange Program (ITEP) is the exchange of waste management and environmental restoration (WM/ER) technologies between the US and other nations. The current emphasis of ITEP is the transfer of technologies to the US that could provide better, faster, cheaper, or safer solutions to the needs of the DOE complex. The 10 candidate technologies that have been identified thus far by ITEP are discussed. The highlights of preliminary evaluations of these technologies through a systems approach are also described. The technologies have been evaluated by a screening process to determine their applicability to the leading WM/ER needs of the DOE complex. The technologies have been qualitatively compared with the known or anticipated capabilities of domestic, base case technologies

A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. B. Mason

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

Bourbaki's structure theory in the problem of complex systems simulation models synthesis and model-oriented programming

Science.gov (United States)

Brodsky, Yu. I.

2015-01-01

The work is devoted to the application of Bourbaki's structure theory to substantiate the synthesis of simulation models of complex multicomponent systems, where every component may be a complex system itself. An application of the Bourbaki's structure theory offers a new approach to the design and computer implementation of simulation models of complex multicomponent systems—model synthesis and model-oriented programming. It differs from the traditional object-oriented approach. The central concept of this new approach and at the same time, the basic building block for the construction of more complex structures is the concept of models-components. A model-component endowed with a more complicated structure than, for example, the object in the object-oriented analysis. This structure provides to the model-component an independent behavior-the ability of standard responds to standard requests of its internal and external environment. At the same time, the computer implementation of model-component's behavior is invariant under the integration of models-components into complexes. This fact allows one firstly to construct fractal models of any complexity, and secondly to implement a computational process of such constructions uniformly-by a single universal program. In addition, the proposed paradigm allows one to exclude imperative programming and to generate computer code with a high degree of parallelism.

EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2014-01-01

EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...

Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

Science.gov (United States)

This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

Polystochastic Models for Complexity

CERN Document Server

Iordache, Octavian

2010-01-01

This book is devoted to complexity understanding and management, considered as the main source of efficiency and prosperity for the next decades. Divided into six chapters, the book begins with a presentation of basic concepts as complexity, emergence and closure. The second chapter looks to methods and introduces polystochastic models, the wave equation, possibilities and entropy. The third chapter focusing on physical and chemical systems analyzes flow-sheet synthesis, cyclic operations of separation, drug delivery systems and entropy production. Biomimetic systems represent the main objective of the fourth chapter. Case studies refer to bio-inspired calculation methods, to the role of artificial genetic codes, neural networks and neural codes for evolutionary calculus and for evolvable circuits as biomimetic devices. The fifth chapter, taking its inspiration from systems sciences and cognitive sciences looks to engineering design, case base reasoning methods, failure analysis, and multi-agent manufacturing...

Understanding wider environmental influences on mentoring: Towards an ecological model of mentoring in academic medicine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dario Sambunjak

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Mentoring is a complex developmental relationship that contributes to individual growth and career advancement in different areas of human activity, including academic medicine. This article describes a broader environmental milieux in which mentoring occurs and considers the ways in which the environmental factors may affect the process and outcomes of mentoring. An ecological model of mentoring is proposed that takes into account various factors broadly operating at three contextual levels. The first is societal or “macro” level, which implies cultural, economic, and political factors. The second is institutional or “meso” level, consisting of a system-related factors such as field and discipline characteristics, and government policies, and b organization-related factors such as mentoring climate, reward structure, and work design. The third contextual level relates to intrapersonal and interpersonal characteristics of mentor-mentee dyads. If mentoring dyad is viewed as the focal point, societal and institutional levels may be labeled as “external”, and personal level as “internal”. The conceptual diversity and methodological challenges in the study of mentoring need to be acknowledged, but should not be an excuse to leave the external contextual elements out of the researchers’ horizon, as they inevitably shape and modify the mentoring relationships. Conclusion. Model presented in this article offers a holistic view of mentoring in academic medicine that may help one comprehend and appreciate the complexity of influences on mentoring, and inform the future research agenda on this important topic.

International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

2012-07-01

This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO CREATION OF COMPLEX CONTROL SYSTEM MODEL FOR THE STREAMS OF BUILDING WASTE

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Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In 2011 in Russia a Strategy of Production Development of Construction Materials and Industrial Housing Construction for the period up to 2020 was approved as one of strategic documents in the sphere of construction. In the process of this strategy development all the needs of construction complex were taken into account in all the spheres of economy, including transport system. The strategy also underlined, that the construction industry is a great basis for use and application in secondary economic turnover of dangerous waste from different production branches. This gives possibility to produce construction products of recycled materials and at the same time to solve the problem of environmental protection. The article considers and analyzes scientific methodological approaches to creation of a model of a complex control system for the streams of building waste in frames of organizing uniform ecologically safe and economically effective complex system of waste treatment in country regions.

BALANCED SCORECARDS EVALUATION MODEL THAT INCLUDES ELEMENTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM USING AHP MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jelena Jovanović

2010-03-01

Full Text Available The research is oriented on improvement of environmental management system (EMS using BSC (Balanced Scorecard model that presents strategic model of measurem ents and improvement of organisational performance. The research will present approach of objectives and environmental management me trics involvement (proposed by literature review in conventional BSC in "Ad Barska plovi dba" organisation. Further we will test creation of ECO-BSC model based on business activities of non-profit organisations in order to improve envir onmental management system in parallel with other systems of management. Using this approach we may obtain 4 models of BSC that includ es elements of environmen tal management system for AD "Barska plovidba". Taking into acc ount that implementation and evaluation need long period of time in AD "Barska plovidba", the final choice will be based on 14598 (Information technology - Software product evaluation and ISO 9126 (Software engineering - Product quality using AHP method. Those standards are usually used for evaluation of quality software product and computer programs that serve in organisation as support and factors for development. So, AHP model will be bas ed on evolution criteria based on suggestion of ISO 9126 standards and types of evaluation from two evaluation teams. Members of team & will be experts in BSC and environmental management system that are not em ployed in AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation. The members of team 2 will be managers of AD "Barska Plovidba" organisation (including manage rs from environmental department. Merging results based on previously cr eated two AHP models, one can obtain the most appropriate BSC that includes elements of environmental management system. The chosen model will present at the same time suggestion for approach choice including ecological metrics in conventional BSC model for firm that has at least one ECO strategic orientation.

Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

Science.gov (United States)

Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

2016-04-01

With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of environmental parameters on the chestnut gall wasp and its complex of indigenous parasitoids

Science.gov (United States)

Bonsignore, Carmelo Peter; Bernardo, Umberto

2018-04-01

The chestnut gall wasp (CGW), Dryocosmus kuriphilus, an invasive pest native to China, has caused severe yield and economic losses to chestnut production in Europe since its arrival in 2002. In Southern Italy, the complex of indigenous parasitoids colonizing CGW was monitored between 2013 and 2015, with the aim of estimating the composition of the indigenous parasitoid complex, its ability to control CGW populations, and the interactions of both factors with several measured environmental parameters. We compared results among three differently managed field types. Results showed an increase in the rate of parasitism both when the host population density was lower and in unmanaged chestnut stands with more natural conditions. The percentage of parasitism in galls was related to morphological traits of the galls and to higher seasonal temperatures, which reduced the parasitism intensity because CGW develops earlier under such conditions. The host-parasitoid mortality inside galls varied among sites and was associated mostly with rot fungi during wet spring and summer months. Parasitoid species richness was similar among the study sites, but the proportion of parasitoid species differed between orchards and unmanaged coppice stands. The timing of attack by parasitoids followed a species-specific successional sequence throughout the larva-to-adult life cycle of the CGW. These interactions should be considered in future research on trophic relationships and when modeling invasive scenarios for new pest species.

Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

2016-08-15

This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determinants of Consumers’ Pro-Environmental Behavior – Toward an Integrated Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Octav-Ionuţ Macovei

2015-08-01

Full Text Available This paper aims at constructing a model which will explain consumers’ pro-environmental behavior by analyzing its direct and indirect predictors. To achieve this, variables from wellestablished models and theories were employed, such as Schwartz’s Norm Activation Theory (NAT, Stern’s Value-belief-norms Theory (VBN and Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB. Important variables like perceived behavioral control, normative beliefs, awareness of the consequences of environmental problems, Compatibility with a pro-environmental behaviour, attitude towards a proenvironmental behavior and intention to behave in a pro-environmental manner are considered to be determinants of consumers’ pro-environmental behavior. All these variables were discussed and assembled in an integrated research model which can be validated through a quantitative survey. Each variable was described at a conceptual and operational level, items and scales being proposed for each one The proposed model will offer to organizations a valuable green marketing tool which can be used in the fight for environment protection. The proposed model is unique can be used as a solid based for future research.

Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

2015-01-01

In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

Reservoir-based Online Adaptive Forward Models with Neural Control for Complex Locomotion in a Hexapod Robot

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Manoonpong, Poramate; Dasgupta, Sakyasingha; Goldschmidt, Dennis

2014-01-01

Walking animals show fascinating locomotor abilities and complex behaviors. Biological study has revealed that such complex behaviors is a result of a combination of biomechanics and neural mechanisms. While biomechanics allows for flexibility and a variety of movements, neural mechanisms generate...... locomotion, make predictions, and provide adaptation. Inspired by this finding, we present here an artificial bio-inspired walking system which combines biomechanics (in terms of its body and leg structures) and neural mechanisms. The neural mechanisms consist of 1) central pattern generator-based control...... for generating basic rhythmic patterns and coordinated movements, 2) reservoir-based adaptive forward models with efference copies for sensory prediction as well as state estimation, and 3) searching and elevation control for adapting the movement of an individual leg to deal with different environmental...

Using model-based screening to help discover unknown environmental contaminants.

Science.gov (United States)

McLachlan, Michael S; Kierkegaard, Amelie; Radke, Michael; Sobek, Anna; Malmvärn, Anna; Alsberg, Tomas; Arnot, Jon A; Brown, Trevor N; Wania, Frank; Breivik, Knut; Xu, Shihe

2014-07-01

Of the tens of thousands of chemicals in use, only a small fraction have been analyzed in environmental samples. To effectively identify environmental contaminants, methods to prioritize chemicals for analytical method development are required. We used a high-throughput model of chemical emissions, fate, and bioaccumulation to identify chemicals likely to have high concentrations in specific environmental media, and we prioritized these for target analysis. This model-based screening was applied to 215 organosilicon chemicals culled from industrial chemical production statistics. The model-based screening prioritized several recognized organosilicon contaminants and generated hypotheses leading to the selection of three chemicals that have not previously been identified as potential environmental contaminants for target analysis. Trace analytical methods were developed, and the chemicals were analyzed in air, sewage sludge, and sediment. All three substances were found to be environmental contaminants. Phenyl-tris(trimethylsiloxy)silane was present in all samples analyzed, with concentrations of ∼50 pg m(-3) in Stockholm air and ∼0.5 ng g(-1) dw in sediment from the Stockholm archipelago. Tris(trifluoropropyl)trimethyl-cyclotrisiloxane and tetrakis(trifluoropropyl)tetramethyl-cyclotetrasiloxane were found in sediments from Lake Mjøsa at ∼1 ng g(-1) dw. The discovery of three novel environmental contaminants shows that models can be useful for prioritizing chemicals for exploratory assessment.

Advanced aviation environmental modeling tools to inform policymakers

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-19

Aviation environmental models which conform to international guidance have advanced : over the past several decades. Enhancements to algorithms and databases have increasingly : shown these models to compare well with gold standard measured data. The...

Developing models that analyze the economic/environmental trade-offs implicit in water resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Howitt, R. E.

2016-12-01

Hydro-economic models have been used to analyze optimal supply management and groundwater use for the past 25 years. They are characterized by an objective function that usually maximizes economic measures such as consumer and producer surplus subject to hydrologic equations of motion or water distribution systems. The hydrologic and economic components are sometimes fully integrated. Alternatively they may use an iterative interactive process. Environmental considerations have been included in hydro-economic models as inequality constraints. Representing environmental requirements as constraints is a rigid approximation of the range of management alternatives that could be used to implement environmental objectives. The next generation of hydro-economic models, currently being developed, require that the environmental alternatives be represented by continuous or semi-continuous functions which relate water resource use allocated to the environment with the probabilities of achieving environmental objectives. These functions will be generated by process models of environmental and biological systems which are now advanced to the state that they can realistically represent environmental systems and flexibility to interact with economic models. Examples are crop growth models, climate modeling, and biological models of forest, fish, and fauna systems. These process models can represent environmental outcomes in a form that is similar to economic production functions. When combined with economic models the interacting process models can reproduce a range of trade-offs between economic and environmental objectives, and thus optimize social value of many water and environmental resources. Some examples of this next-generation of hydro-enviro- economic models are reviewed. In these models implicit production functions for environmental goods are combined with hydrologic equations of motion and economic response functions. We discuss models that show interaction between

The impact of global environmental change on vector-borne disease risk: a modelling study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe, PhD

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Vector-borne diseases, such as dengue virus, Zika virus, and malaria, are highly sensitive to environmental changes, including variations in climate and land-surface characteristics. The emergence and spread of vector-borne diseases is also exacerbated by anthropogenic activities, such as deforestation, mining, urbanisation, and human mobility, which alter the natural habitats of vectors and increase vector–host interactions. Innovative epidemiological modelling tools can help to understand how environmental conditions interact with socioeconomic risk factors to predict the risk of disease transmission. In recent years, climate-health modelling has benefited from computational advances in fitting complex mathematical models; increasing availability of environmental, socioeconomic, and disease surveillance datasets; and improved ability to understand and model the climate system. Climate forecasts at seasonal time scales tend to improve in quality during El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in certain regions of the tropics. Thus, climate forecasts provide an opportunity to anticipate potential outbreaks of vector-borne diseases from several months to a year in advance. The aim of this study was to develop a framework to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts in predictive disease models to understand the future risk of vector-borne diseases, with a focus on dengue fever in Latin America. Methods: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model framework that quantifies the extent to which environmental and socioeconomic indicators can explain variations in disease risk was designed to disentangle the effects of climate from other risk factors using multi-source data and random effects, which account for unknown and unmeasured sources of spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variation. The model was used to provide probabilistic predictions of monthly dengue incidence and the probability of exceeding outbreak thresholds, which were established in

Simulation and Analysis of Complex Biological Processes: an Organisation Modelling Perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bosse, T.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

2005-01-01

This paper explores how the dynamics of complex biological processes can be modelled and simulated as an organisation of multiple agents. This modelling perspective identifies organisational structure occurring in complex decentralised processes and handles complexity of the analysis of the dynamics

EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

A Study on the development of macro environmental economic model(I)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Young Keun; Han, Min Jung [Korea Environment Institute, Seoul (Korea)

1998-12-01

This study is the first year study of the two year research project for developing a macro environmental economic model to analyze environment and economics. By using this model, the economic effects of investment on pollution reduction and on energy conservation are analyzed. Also, a comprehensive modeling of analyzing effects of environmental tax, reduction on greenhouse gas emission, and problems on foreign exchange on environment and economy is a main goal of this study. It is planned to develop a simulation program for the estimation of model and policies using environmental and economic data. 126 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

2009-01-01

Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

2009-01-15

Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

Information technologies in environmental engineering. Proceedings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Athanasiadis, Ioannis N.; Rizzoli, Andrea E. [Istituto dalle Molle di Studi sull' Intelligenza Artificiale (IDSIA), Manno (Switzerland); Mitkas, Pericles A. [Aristotle Univ. of Thessaloniki (Greece); Marx Gomez, Jorge (eds.) [Oldenburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Wirtschaftsinformatik

2009-07-01

Information technologies have evolved to an enabling science for natural resource management and conservation, environmental engineering, scientific simulation and integrated assessment studies. Computing plays a significant role in every day practices of environmental engineers, natural scientists, economists, and social scientists. The complexity of natural phenomena requires interdisciplinary approaches, where computing science offers the infrastructure for environmental data collection and management, scientific simulations, decision support documentation and reporting. Ecology, environmental engineering and natural resource management comprise an excellent real-world testbed for IT system demonstration, while raising new challenges for computer science. Complexity, uncertainty and scaling issues of natural systems form a demanding application domain for sensor networks and earth observation systems; modelling, simulation and scientific workflows, data management and reporting, decision support and intelligent systems, distributed computing environments, geographical information systems, heterogeneous systems integration, software engineering, accounting systems and control systems. This books offers a collection of papers presented at the 4th International Symposium on Environmental Engineering, held in May 2009, in Thessaloniki, Greece. Recent success stories in ecoinformatics, promising ideas and new challenges are discussed among computer scientists, environmental engineers, economists and social scientists, demonstrating new paradigms for problem solving and decision making. (orig.)

Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

Science.gov (United States)

Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

2017-12-01

Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

Algebraic computability and enumeration models recursion theory and descriptive complexity

CERN Document Server

Nourani, Cyrus F

2016-01-01

This book, Algebraic Computability and Enumeration Models: Recursion Theory and Descriptive Complexity, presents new techniques with functorial models to address important areas on pure mathematics and computability theory from the algebraic viewpoint. The reader is first introduced to categories and functorial models, with Kleene algebra examples for languages. Functorial models for Peano arithmetic are described toward important computational complexity areas on a Hilbert program, leading to computability with initial models. Infinite language categories are also introduced to explain descriptive complexity with recursive computability with admissible sets and urelements. Algebraic and categorical realizability is staged on several levels, addressing new computability questions with omitting types realizably. Further applications to computing with ultrafilters on sets and Turing degree computability are examined. Functorial models computability is presented with algebraic trees realizing intuitionistic type...

Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany); Kühne, R. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Potemkin, V.A. [Department of Chemistry, South Ural State Medical University, Vorovskogo 64, 454048, Chelyabinsk (Russian Federation); Schüürmann, G. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany)

2016-04-15

The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K{sub ow}-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K{sub ow}-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water

Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D.; Kühne, R.; Potemkin, V.A.; Schüürmann, G.

2016-01-01

The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K_o_w-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K_o_w-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water, polar

Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Veer, Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert

1996-01-01

Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the

Predicting soil, water and air concentrations of environmental contaminants locally and regionally; multimedia transport and transformation models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKone, T.E.; Daniels, J.I.

1991-01-01

Environmental scientists recognize that the environment functions as a complex, interconnected system. A realistic risk-management strategy for many contaminants requires a comprehensive and integrated assessment of local and regional transport and transformation processes. In response to this need, we have developed multimedia models that simulate the movement and transformation of chemicals as they spread through air, water, biota, soils, sediments, surface water and ground water. Each component of the environment is treated as a homogeneous subsystem that can exchange water, nutrients, and chemical contaminants with other adjacent compartments. In this paper, we illustrate the use of multimedia models and measurements as tools for screening the potential risks of contaminants released to air and deposited onto soil and plants. The contaminant list includes the volatile organic compounds (VOCs) tetrachloroethylene (PCE) and trichloroethylene (TCE), the semi-volatile organic compound benzo(a)pyrene, and the radionuclides tritium and uranium-238. We examine how chemical properties effect both the ultimate route and quantity of human and ecosystem contact and identify sensitivities and uncertainties in the model results. We consider the advantages of multimedia models relative to environmental monitoring data. (au)

Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je

2010-07-01

The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel

Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Oil and Natural Gas Operations: Potential Environmental Contamination and Recommendations to Assess Complex Environmental Mixtures.

Science.gov (United States)

Kassotis, Christopher D; Tillitt, Donald E; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A; Nagel, Susan C

2016-03-01

Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. Although these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals that are used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals. We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and antihormonal activities for chemicals used. We discuss the literature on a) surface and groundwater contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and b) potential human exposure, particularly in the context of the total hormonal and antihormonal activities present in surface and groundwater from natural and anthropogenic sources; we also discuss initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps. In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures. We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide information supporting the idea that using such a component will help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and oil and natural gas operations: Potential environmental contamination and recommendations to assess complex environmental mixtures

Science.gov (United States)

Kassotis, Christopher D.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A.; Nagel, Susan C.

2016-01-01

Background: Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. While these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals.Objectives: We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and anti-hormonal activities for chemicals used.Methods: We discuss the literature on 1) surface and ground water contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and 2) potential human exposure, particularly in context of the total hormonal and anti-hormonal activities present in surface and ground water from natural and anthropogenic sources, with initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps discussed.Discussion: In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures.Conclusions: We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide supporting information that using this may help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

Developing the remote sensing-based water environmental model for monitoring alpine river water environment over Plateau cold zone

Science.gov (United States)

You, Y.; Wang, S.; Yang, Q.; Shen, M.; Chen, G.

2017-12-01

Alpine river water environment on the Plateau (such as Tibetan Plateau, China) is a key indicator for water security and environmental security in China. Due to the complex terrain and various surface eco-environment, it is a very difficult to monitor the water environment over the complex land surface of the plateau. The increasing availability of remote sensing techniques with appropriate spatiotemporal resolutions, broad coverage and low costs allows for effective monitoring river water environment on the Plateau, particularly in remote and inaccessible areas where are lack of in situ observations. In this study, we propose a remote sense-based monitoring model by using multi-platform remote sensing data for monitoring alpine river environment. In this study some parameterization methodologies based on satellite remote sensing data and field observations have been proposed for monitoring the water environmental parameters (including chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a), water turbidity (WT) or water clarity (SD), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total organic carbon (TOC)) over the china's southwest highland rivers, such as the Brahmaputra. First, because most sensors do not collect multiple observations of a target in a single pass, data from multiple orbits or acquisition times may be used, and varying atmospheric and irradiance effects must be reconciled. So based on various types of satellite data, at first we developed the techniques of multi-sensor data correction, atmospheric correction. Second, we also built the inversion spectral database derived from long-term remote sensing data and field sampling data. Then we have studied and developed a high-precision inversion model over the southwest highland river backed by inversion spectral database through using the techniques of multi-sensor remote sensing information optimization and collaboration. Third, take the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra river as the study area, we validated the key

The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a handy tool for the practice of environmental model estimation : illustration with biochemical oxygen demand data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Franck Torre

2001-02-01

Full Text Available Environmental scientists often face situations where: (i stimulus-response relationships are non-linear; (ii data are rare or imprecise; (iii facts are uncertain and stimulus-responses relationships are questionable. In this paper, we focus on the first two points. A powerful and easy-to-use statistical method, the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, allows the quantification of the uncertainty attached to any model response. This stochastic simulation technique is able to reproduce the statistical joint distribution of the whole parameter set of any model. The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is described and illustrated on a typical environmental model: the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD. The aim is to provide a helpful guideline for further, and ultimately more complex, models. As a first illustration, the MH-method is also applied to a simple regression example to demonstrate to the practitioner the ability of the algorithm to produce valid results.

Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Minho; Hong, Taehoon; Ji, Changyoon

2015-01-01

The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C 6 H 6 eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings

Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

2014-09-01

Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

Fatigue modeling of materials with complex microstructures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

2011-01-01

with the phenomenological model of fatigue damage growth. As a result, the fatigue lifetime of materials with complex structures can be determined as a function of the parameters of their structures. As an example, the fatigue lifetimes of wood modeled as a cellular material with multilayered, fiber reinforced walls were...

Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability ...

Science.gov (United States)

Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantage of streamlined deployment processes and affordable cloud access to move algorithms and data to the web for discoverability and consumption. In these deployments, environmental models can become available to end users through RESTful web services and consistent application program interfaces (APIs) that consume, manipulate, and store modeling data. RESTful modeling APIs also promote discoverability and guide usability through self-documentation. Embracing the RESTful paradigm allows models to be accessible via a web standard, and the resulting endpoints are platform- and implementation-agnostic while simultaneously presenting significant computational capabilities for spatial and temporal scaling. RESTful APIs present data in a simple verb-noun web request interface: the verb dictates how a resource is consumed using HTTP methods (e.g., GET, POST, and PUT) and the noun represents the URL reference of the resource on which the verb will act. The RESTful API can self-document in both the HTTP response and an interactive web page using the Open API standard. This lets models function as an interoperable service that promotes sharing, documentation, and discoverability. Here, we discuss the

Assessing and managing health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1988-03-01

There is a growing awareness that it is necessary to identify, assess, and manage the risks of energy and other complex industrial activities in order to minimize their potential to harm public health and the environment. Therefore, quantitative risk analysis with emphasis on risk management has become an important aspect in high level decision making for regulation in developed and developing countries. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have initiated a project to promote the use of risk assessment and risk management in environmental health and safety decision making throughout the world. A meeting was held in Paris, France on October 13-17, 1986. The purpose of the meeting was to: a) Discuss the state of the art of national and international experience in conducting case studies in the field of assessing and managing industrial risks from energy and other complex industrial systems either at the plant level or in highly industrialized areas within a country; b) Present and discuss planned regional risk management case studies within a country or international research projects on risk management to be implemented in the future; and c) Review the Project Document on ''Assessing, Controlling, and Managing Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems''. The full texts, together with abstracts, of the papers given at the meeting are presented. The summary reviews briefly some of the major points that arose in papers or in the ensuing discussions. Where a consensus view resulted, conclusions were drawn. Major differences of opinion are also noted

Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

1996-01-01

A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

Coupling model of energy consumption with changes in environmental utility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He Hongming; Jim, C.Y.

2012-01-01

This study explores the relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility changes by a proposed Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model. Based on the dynamic equilibrium of input–output economics theory, it considers three simulation scenarios: fixed-technology, technological-innovation, and green-building effect. It is applied to analyse Hong Kong in 1980–2007. Continual increase in energy consumption with rapid economic growth degraded environmental utility. First, energy consumption at fixed-technology was determined by economic outcome. In 1990, it reached a critical balanced state when energy consumption was 22×10 9 kWh. Before 1990 (x 1 9 kWh), rise in energy consumption improved both economic development and environmental utility. After 1990 (x 1 >22×10 9 kWh), expansion of energy consumption facilitated socio-economic development but suppressed environmental benefits. Second, technological-innovation strongly influenced energy demand and improved environmental benefits. The balanced state remained in 1999 when energy consumption reached 32.33×10 9 kWh. Technological-innovation dampened energy consumption by 12.99%, exceeding the fixed-technology condition. Finally, green buildings reduced energy consumption by an average of 17.5% in 1990–2007. They contributed significantly to energy saving, and buffered temperature fluctuations between external and internal environment. The case investigations verified the efficiency of the EUEC model, which can effectively evaluate the interplay of energy consumption and environmental quality. - Highlights: ► We explore relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility. ► An Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model is proposed. ► Technological innovation mitigates energy consumption impacts on environmental quality. ► Technological innovation decreases demand of energy consumption more than fixed technology scenario

Enabling complex genetic circuits to respond to extrinsic environmental signals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoynes-O'Connor, Allison; Shopera, Tatenda; Hinman, Kristina; Creamer, John Philip; Moon, Tae Seok

2017-07-01

Genetic circuits have the potential to improve a broad range of metabolic engineering processes and address a variety of medical and environmental challenges. However, in order to engineer genetic circuits that can meet the needs of these real-world applications, genetic sensors that respond to relevant extrinsic and intrinsic signals must be implemented in complex genetic circuits. In this work, we construct the first AND and NAND gates that respond to temperature and pH, two signals that have relevance in a variety of real-world applications. A previously identified pH-responsive promoter and a temperature-responsive promoter were extracted from the E. coli genome, characterized, and modified to suit the needs of the genetic circuits. These promoters were combined with components of the type III secretion system in Salmonella typhimurium and used to construct a set of AND gates with up to 23-fold change. Next, an antisense RNA was integrated into the circuit architecture to invert the logic of the AND gate and generate a set of NAND gates with up to 1168-fold change. These circuits provide the first demonstration of complex pH- and temperature-responsive genetic circuits, and lay the groundwork for the use of similar circuits in real-world applications. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1626-1631. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling

CERN Document Server

Bertelle, Cyrille; Kadri-Dahmani, Hakima

2009-01-01

The concern of this book is the use of emergent computing and self-organization modelling within various applications of complex systems. The authors focus their attention both on the innovative concepts and implementations in order to model self-organizations, but also on the relevant applicative domains in which they can be used efficiently. This book is the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006 (Eurosis), held in Toulouse, France in October 2006.

Febrile illness diagnostics and the malaria-industrial complex: a socio-environmental perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Justin Stoler

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Global prioritization of single-disease eradication programs over improvements to basic diagnostic capacity in the Global South have left the world unprepared for epidemics of chikungunya, Ebola, Zika, and whatever lies on the horizon. The medical establishment is slowly realizing that in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, particularly urban areas, up to a third of patients suffering from acute fever do not receive a correct diagnosis of their infection. Main body Malaria is the most common diagnosis for febrile patients in low-resource health care settings, and malaria misdiagnosis has soared due to the institutionalization of malaria as the primary febrile illness of SSA by international development organizations and national malaria control programs. This has inadvertently created a “malaria-industrial complex” and historically obstructed our complete understanding of the continent’s complex communicable disease epidemiology, which is currently dominated by a mélange of undiagnosed febrile illnesses. We synthesize interdisciplinary literature from Ghana to highlight the complexity of communicable disease care in SSA from biomedical, social, and environmental perspectives, and suggest a way forward. Conclusion A socio-environmental approach to acute febrile illness etiology, diagnostics, and management would lead to substantial health gains in Africa, including more efficient malaria control. Such an approach would also improve global preparedness for future epidemics of emerging pathogens such as chikungunya, Ebola, and Zika, all of which originated in SSA with limited baseline understanding of their epidemiology despite clinical recognition of these viruses for many decades. Impending ACT resistance, new vaccine delays, and climate change all beckon our attention to proper diagnosis of fevers in order to maximize limited health care resources.

Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

CERN Document Server

Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

2016-01-01

This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

Science.gov (United States)

Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

1988-01-01

An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

Elastic Network Model of a Nuclear Transport Complex

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, Patrick; Liu, Wing K.; Lee, Dockjin; Seo, Sangjae; Kim, Young-Jin; Kim, Moon K.

2010-05-01

The structure of Kap95p was obtained from the Protein Data Bank (www.pdb.org) and analyzed RanGTP plays an important role in both nuclear protein import and export cycles. In the nucleus, RanGTP releases macromolecular cargoes from importins and conversely facilitates cargo binding to exportins. Although the crystal structure of the nuclear import complex formed by importin Kap95p and RanGTP was recently identified, its molecular mechanism still remains unclear. To understand the relationship between structure and function of a nuclear transport complex, a structure-based mechanical model of Kap95p:RanGTP complex is introduced. In this model, a protein structure is simply modeled as an elastic network in which a set of coarse-grained point masses are connected by linear springs representing biochemical interactions at atomic level. Harmonic normal mode analysis (NMA) and anharmonic elastic network interpolation (ENI) are performed to predict the modes of vibrations and a feasible pathway between locked and unlocked conformations of Kap95p, respectively. Simulation results imply that the binding of RanGTP to Kap95p induces the release of the cargo in the nucleus as well as prevents any new cargo from attaching to the Kap95p:RanGTP complex.

MODEL OF IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BY MULTI - SOFTWARE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jelena Jovanovic

2009-03-01

Full Text Available This paper is based on doctoral dissertation which is oriented on improving environmental management system using multi - software. In this doctoral dissertation will be used key results of master thesis which is oriented on quantification environmental aspects and impacts by artificial neural network in organizations. This paper recommend improving environmental management system in organization using Balanced scorecard model and MCDM method - AHP (Analytic hierarchy process based on group decision. BSC would be spread with elements of Environmental management system and used in area of strategic management system in organization and AHP would be used in area of checking results getting by quantification environmental aspects and impacts.

[Ethics and prevention: environmental and individual disparities].

Science.gov (United States)

Ricciardi, Claudio

2004-01-01

The complex interactions which exist between environmental variabilities, genetic susceptibility of population subgroups, and high individual variability for age, sex, gender, ethnicity and general status of health, acquire an ever-increasing bioethical significance. Different risk conditions caused by toxic environmental agents and environmental inequities and inequalities are increasingly evident. "Social determinants" of health increase the probability of health effects and an effective intervention of prevision and prevention for environmental pathologies is needed. The debate on environmental inequalities caused by cultural, social and economic factors and the uncertainty about possible prevention emphasize the limits of the "bio-medical model". Ethics with its further anthropological and philosophical considerations may strongly help to understand the relationship between environmental pollution and health.

Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin

2015-01-01

In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex-valued m......In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex...... error, and robustness in low and medium signal-to-noise ratio regimes....

Complex Networks in Psychological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.

We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.

Complex scaling in the cluster model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kruppa, A.T.; Lovas, R.G.; Gyarmati, B.

1987-01-01

To find the positions and widths of resonances, a complex scaling of the intercluster relative coordinate is introduced into the resonating-group model. In the generator-coordinate technique used to solve the resonating-group equation the complex scaling requires minor changes in the formulae and code. The finding of the resonances does not need any preliminary guess or explicit reference to any asymptotic prescription. The procedure is applied to the resonances in the relative motion of two ground-state α clusters in 8 Be, but is appropriate for any systems consisting of two clusters. (author) 23 refs.; 5 figs

ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catalina SITNIKOV

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

Higher genus correlators for the complex matrix model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ambjorn, J.; Kristhansen, C.F.; Makeenko, Y.M.

1992-01-01

In this paper, the authors describe an iterative scheme which allows us to calculate any multi-loop correlator for the complex matrix model to any genus using only the first in the chain of loop equations. The method works for a completely general potential and the results contain no explicit reference to the couplings. The genus g contribution to the m-loop correlator depends on a finite number of parameters, namely at most 4g - 2 + m. The authors find the generating functional explicitly up to genus three. The authors show as well that the model is equivalent to an external field problem for the complex matrix model with a logarithmic potential

Hybrid LCA model for assessing the embodied environmental impacts of buildings in South Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jang, Minho, E-mail: minmin40@hanmail.net [Asset Management Division, Mate Plus Co., Ltd., 9th Fl., Financial News Bldg. 24-5 Yeouido-dong, Yeongdeungpo-gu, Seoul, 150-877 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Taehoon, E-mail: hong7@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of); Ji, Changyoon, E-mail: chnagyoon@yonsei.ac.kr [Department of Architectural Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, 120-749 (Korea, Republic of)

2015-01-15

The assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings can help decision-makers plan environment-friendly buildings and reduce environmental impacts. For a more comprehensive assessment of the embodied environmental impacts of buildings, a hybrid life cycle assessment model was developed in this study. The developed model can assess the embodied environmental impacts (global warming, ozone layer depletion, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical ozone creation, abiotic depletion, and human toxicity) generated directly and indirectly in the material manufacturing, transportation, and construction phases. To demonstrate the application and validity of the developed model, the environmental impacts of an elementary school building were assessed using the developed model and compared with the results of a previous model used in a case study. The embodied environmental impacts from the previous model were lower than those from the developed model by 4.6–25.2%. Particularly, human toxicity potential (13 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) calculated by the previous model was much lower (1965 kg C{sub 6}H{sub 6} eq.) than what was calculated by the developed model. The results indicated that the developed model can quantify the embodied environmental impacts of buildings more comprehensively, and can be used by decision-makers as a tool for selecting environment-friendly buildings. - Highlights: • The model was developed to assess the embodied environmental impacts of buildings. • The model evaluates GWP, ODP, AP, EP, POCP, ADP, and HTP as environmental impacts. • The model presents more comprehensive results than the previous model by 4.6–100%. • The model can present the HTP of buildings, which the previous models cannot do. • Decision-makers can use the model for selecting environment-friendly buildings.

Recent advances in environmental data mining

Science.gov (United States)

Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

2016-04-01

Due to the large amount and complexity of data available nowadays in geo- and environmental sciences, we face the need to develop and incorporate more robust and efficient methods for their analysis, modelling and visualization. An important part of these developments deals with an elaboration and application of a contemporary and coherent methodology following the process from data collection to the justification and communication of the results. Recent fundamental progress in machine learning (ML) can considerably contribute to the development of the emerging field - environmental data science. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when dealing with environmental data mining using cutting-edge machine learning algorithms. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of the self-consistent methodology and two efficient algorithms - Random Forest (RF, Breiman, 2001) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. Despite the fact that they are based on two different concepts, i.e. decision trees vs artificial neural networks, they both propose promising results for complex, high dimensional and non-linear data modelling. In addition, the study discusses several important issues of data driven modelling, including feature selection and uncertainties. The approach considered is accompanied by simulated and real data case studies from renewable resources assessment and natural hazards tasks. In conclusion, the current challenges and future developments in statistical environmental data learning are discussed. References - Breiman, L., 2001. Random Forests. Machine Learning 45 (1), 5-32. - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392

Gallium sorption on montmorillonite and illite colloids: Experimental study and modelling by ionic exchange and surface complexation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benedicto, Ana; Degueldre, Claude; Missana, Tiziana

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Ga sorption onto illite and montmorillonite was studied and modelled for the first time. • The developed sorption model was able to well explain Ga sorption in both clays. • Number of free parameters was reduced applying the linear free energy relationship. • Cationic exchange dominate sorption at pH < 4.5; surface complexation at higher pH. - Abstract: The migration of metals as gallium (Ga) in the environment is highly influenced by their sorption on clay minerals, as montmorillonite and illite. Given the increased usage of gallium in the industry and the medicine, the Ga-associated waste may result in environmental problems. Ga sorption experiments were carried out on montmorillonite and illite colloids in a wide range of pH, ionic strength and Ga concentration. A Ga sorption model was developed combining ionic exchange and surface complexation on the edge sites (silanol and aluminol-like) of the clay sheets. The complexation constants were estimated as far as possible from the Ga hydrolysis constants applying the linear free energy relationship (LFER), which allowed to reduce the number of free parameters in the model. The Ga sorption behaviour was very similar on illite and montmorillonite: decreasing tendency with pH and dependency on ionic strength at very acidic conditions. The experimental data modelling suggests that the Ga sorption reactions avoid the Ga precipitation, which is predicted in absence of clay colloids between pH 3.5 and 5.5. Assuming this hypothesis, clay colloids would affect Ga aqueous speciation, preventing precipitation in favour of sorption. Ga sorption on montmorillonite and illite can be explained on the basis of three main reactions: Ga 3+ exchange at very acidic conditions (pH < ∼3.8); Ga(OH) 4 - complexation on protonated weak sites in acidic-neutral conditions (between pH ∼5.2 and pH ∼7.9); and Ga(OH) 3 complexation on strong sites at basic conditions (pH > ∼7.9)

Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

2004-09-14

This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

2004-01-01

This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications