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Sample records for modeling complex environmental

  1. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  2. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  3. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  4. Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's modeling community is working to gain insights into certain parts of a physical, biological, economic, or social system by conducting environmental assessments for Agency decision making to complex environmental issues.

  5. Parametric linear hybrid automata for complex environmental systems modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Tareen, Samar H. K.; Ahmad, Jamil; Roux, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator–prey relationships, are dependent on a number different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of ...

  6. Parametric linear hybrid automata for complex environmental systems modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tareen, Samar Hayat Khan; Ahmad, Jamil; Roux, Olivier

    2015-01-01

    Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator–prey relationships, are dependent on a number different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult

  7. Using environmental tracers in modeling flow in a complex shallow aquifer system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Lars; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard

    2008-01-01

    was developed. Using a groundwater model and particle tracking we modeled age distributions at screen locations. By enveloping modeled age distributions and estimated recharge concentrations, environmental tracer breakthroughs were simulated for specific screens. Simulated age distributions are of irregular...... of traditional approaches. Accordingly, constraining flow models by "age observations" may lead to misrepresentations that are biased depending on sampling time. If environmental tracers are used directly in terms of concentrations instead of ages, spatial as well as temporal variations become useful......Using environmental tracers in groundwater dating partly relies on the assumption that groundwater age distribution can be described analytically. To investigate the applicability of age dating in complex multiaquifer systems, a methodology for simulating well specific groundwater age distribution...

  8. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator–prey model with periodic environmental modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harikrishnan, K. P.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator-prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rate of the predator. We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation. The model also displays the peculiar phenomenon of coexistence of multiple limit cycles in the domain of attraction for a given parameter value that combine and finally gets transformed into a single strange attractor as the control parameter is increased. To identify the chaotic regime in the parameter plane of the model, we apply the recently proposed scheme based on the correlation dimension analysis. We show that the environmental modulation is more favourable for the stable coexistence of the predator and the prey as the regions of fixed point and limit cycle in the parameter plane increase at the expense of chaotic domain.

  9. Managing Complex Environmental Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Mikael

    2006-01-01

    Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

  10. Transparency of Environmental Computer Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de M.G.; Top, J.L.; van Hage, W.R.; Schreiber, A.Th.

    2013-01-01

    Environmental computer models are considered essential tools in supporting environmental decision making, but their main value is that they allow a better understanding of our complex environment. Despite numerous attempts to promote good modelling practice, transparency of current environmental

  11. A Novel Global Sensitivity Analysis Technique for an Enhanced Multi-criteria Analysis of the Behavior of Complex Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, A.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Complex physically-based environmental models are being increasingly used as the primary tool for watershed planning and management due to advances in technologies for heavy computation and data acquisition. An improved decision needs a proper approach to modelling. This implies that sensitivity analysis (SA) should be considered as an integral part of modelling, since it plays a crucial role for understanding the behavior of these complex models and improving their performance. Local sensitivity analysis approaches are helpful in this context but insufficient to thoroughly characterize model sensitivity. This is mainly due to non-linear behaviour of complex environmental systems and interactions within them. Therefore, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) should be adopted to provide a comprehensive understanding of model behavior in these cases. One of the main challenges associated with the GSA methods is their substantial computational demand to generate robust sensitivity metrics over the entire factor space. Accordingly, a novel GSA technique, Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS) is recently developed. VARS uses the Variogram concept to efficiently provide a variety of global sensitivity indices across a range of scales within the parameter space; a feature that is unique to VARS. In this work, for an enhanced understanding of the model behavior, we adopted a multi-criteria multi-model approach to conduct a thorough GSA. We applied VARS to a couple of environmental models, with various levels of complexity, and used various metrics to measure sensitivity of model response (streamflow) to model parameters. These metrics measure model performance for simulating high flows, low flows, and flow volume. It is indicated that VARS can be used efficiently to provide a thorough and unique GSA for models, and that the metric choice has a great influence on the assessment of model sensitivity.

  12. Addressing the complexity of water chemistry in environmental fate modeling for engineered nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sani-Kast, Nicole; Scheringer, Martin; Slomberg, Danielle; Labille, Jérôme; Praetorius, Antonia; Ollivier, Patrick; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2015-12-01

    Engineered nanoparticle (ENP) fate models developed to date - aimed at predicting ENP concentration in the aqueous environment - have limited applicability because they employ constant environmental conditions along the modeled system or a highly specific environmental representation; both approaches do not show the effects of spatial and/or temporal variability. To address this conceptual gap, we developed a novel modeling strategy that: 1) incorporates spatial variability in environmental conditions in an existing ENP fate model; and 2) analyzes the effect of a wide range of randomly sampled environmental conditions (representing variations in water chemistry). This approach was employed to investigate the transport of nano-TiO2 in the Lower Rhône River (France) under numerous sets of environmental conditions. The predicted spatial concentration profiles of nano-TiO2 were then grouped according to their similarity by using cluster analysis. The analysis resulted in a small number of clusters representing groups of spatial concentration profiles. All clusters show nano-TiO2 accumulation in the sediment layer, supporting results from previous studies. Analysis of the characteristic features of each cluster demonstrated a strong association between the water conditions in regions close to the ENP emission source and the cluster membership of the corresponding spatial concentration profiles. In particular, water compositions favoring heteroaggregation between the ENPs and suspended particulate matter resulted in clusters of low variability. These conditions are, therefore, reliable predictors of the eventual fate of the modeled ENPs. The conclusions from this study are also valid for ENP fate in other large river systems. Our results, therefore, shift the focus of future modeling and experimental research of ENP environmental fate to the water characteristic in regions near the expected ENP emission sources. Under conditions favoring heteroaggregation in these

  13. Strategic planning model for achieving stakeholder involvement in environmental at DOE weapons complex sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.

    1994-01-01

    Within today's reality a public manager often needs to develop cooperative relationships among a number of individual, program, and organizational stakeholders to accomplish particular projects, programs, or policies. A DOE site manager charged with accomplishing environmental restoration and conversion at former weapons production sites is no exception. Important reasons for this include the technical and political complexity of the clean-up problem; limits on the funding, authority, and other resources available to DOE; authority, responsibilities, and interests of other stakeholders; and the ever present potential for conflict among stakeholders, and power of any one to hinder, if not halt, the clean-up process if conflicts aren't managed and cooperative relationships established and maintained

  14. Improved water resource management using three dimensional groundwater modelling for a highly complex environmental

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

    2017-04-01

    Proper allocation and management of groundwater is an important and critical challenge under rising water demands of various environmental sectors but good groundwater quality is often limited because of urbanization and contamination of aquifers. Given the predictive capability of groundwater models, they are often the only viable means of providing input to water management decisions. However, modelling flow and transport processes can be difficult due to their unknown subsurface heterogeneity and typically unknown distribution of contaminants. As a result water resource management tasks are based on uncertain assumption on contaminants patterns and this uncertainty is typically not incorporated into the assessment of risks associated with different proposed management scenarios. A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area, where drinking water production is close to different former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water into the gravel aquifer is used to create a hydraulic barrier between contaminated sites and drinking water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction and magnitude between existing observation points using a newly developed three point estimation method for a large amount of scenarios was carried out. Due to the numerous observation points 32 triangles (three-points) were created which cover the entire area around the Hardwald. We demonstrated that systematically applying our developed methodology helps to identify important locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions and where additional protection is required without highly computational demanding transport modelling. The presented integrated approach using the flow direction

  15. Addressing Complexity in Environmental Management and Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Kirschke

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Governance for complex problem solving has been increasingly discussed in environmental sustainability research. Above all, researchers continuously observe that sustainability problems are complex or “wicked”, and suggest participatory models to address these problems in practice. In order to add to this debate, this study suggests a more differentiated theoretical approach to define governance for complex environmental problem solving than in previous studies. The approach consists of two vital steps: First, we operationalize complexity and define management strategies for solving environmental sustainability problems based on findings from psychology research. Second, we identify governance strategies that facilitate these management strategies. Linking those strategies suggests that the role of diverse institutions, actors, and interactions differs for five key dimensions of complexity: goals, variables, dynamics, interconnections, and informational uncertainty. The results strengthen systematic analyses of environmental sustainability problems in both theory and practice.

  16. EMDS 3.0: A modeling framework for coping with complexity in environmental assessment and planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    K.M. Reynolds

    2006-01-01

    EMDS 3.0 is implemented as an ArcMap® extension and integrates the logic engine of NetWeaver® to perform landscape evaluations, and the decision modeling engine of Criterium DecisionPlus® for evaluating management priorities. Key features of the system's evaluation component include abilities to (1) reason about large, abstract, multifaceted ecosystem management...

  17. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  18. Environmental problems in the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fultz, K.O.

    1989-04-01

    This paper provide the authors' views on the environmental problems facing the Department of Energy. Testimony is based on a large body of work, over 50 reports and testimonies since 1981, on environmental, safety, and health aspects of DOE's nuclear weapons complex. This work has shown that the complex faces a wide variety of serious problem areas including aging facilities, safety concerns which have shut down DOE's production reactors, and environmental cleanup

  19. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  20. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  1. Complex matrix model duality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, T.W.

    2010-11-15

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

  2. Assembling large, complex environmental metagenomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howe, A. C. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Plant Soil and Microbial Sciences; Jansson, J. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI), Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division; Malfatti, S. A. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI), Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Tringe, S. G. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI), Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Tiedje, J. M. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Plant Soil and Microbial Sciences; Brown, C. T. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Computer Science and Engineering

    2012-12-28

    The large volumes of sequencing data required to sample complex environments deeply pose new challenges to sequence analysis approaches. De novo metagenomic assembly effectively reduces the total amount of data to be analyzed but requires significant computational resources. We apply two pre-assembly filtering approaches, digital normalization and partitioning, to make large metagenome assemblies more computationaly tractable. Using a human gut mock community dataset, we demonstrate that these methods result in assemblies nearly identical to assemblies from unprocessed data. We then assemble two large soil metagenomes from matched Iowa corn and native prairie soils. The predicted functional content and phylogenetic origin of the assembled contigs indicate significant taxonomic differences despite similar function. The assembly strategies presented are generic and can be extended to any metagenome; full source code is freely available under a BSD license.

  3. Intertextuality for Handling Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byhring, Anne Kristine; Knain, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Nowhere is the need for handling complexity more pertinent than in addressing environmental issues. Our study explores students' situated constructs of complexity in unfolding discourses on socio-scientific issues. Students' dialogues in two group-work episodes are analysed in detail, with tools from Systemic Functional Linguistics. We identify…

  4. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  5. Use of a simplified pathways model to improve the environmental surveillance program at the radioactive waste management complex of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Case, M.J.; Rope, S.K.

    1985-01-01

    Systems analysis, including a simple pathways model based on first-order kinetics, is a useful way to design or improve environmental monitoring networks. This method allows investigators and administrators to consider interactions that may be occurring in the system and provides guidance in determining the need to collect data on various system components and processes. A simplified pathways model of radionuclide movement from low-level waste and transuranic waste buried at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex was developed (1) to identify critical pathways that should be monitored and (2) to identify key input parameters that need investigation by special studies. The model was modified from the Savannah River Laboratory DOSTOMAN code. Site-specific data were used in the model, if available. Physical and biological pathways include airborne and waterborne transport of surface soil, subsurface migration to the aquifer, waste container degradation, plant uptake, small mammal burrowing, and a few simplified food chain pathways. The model was run using a set of radionuclides determined to be significant in terms of relative hazard. Critical transport pathways which should be monitored were selected based on relative influence on model results. Key input parameters were identified for possible special studies by evaluating the sensitivity of model response to the parameters used to define transport pathways. A description of the approaches used and the guidance recommended to improve the environmental surveillance program are presented in this paper. 5 references, 1 figure, 2 tables

  6. Modeling Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Boccara, Nino

    2010-01-01

    Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

  7. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  8. Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

    2017-03-01

    Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Modeling Complex Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreckenberg, M

    2004-01-01

    This book by Nino Boccara presents a compilation of model systems commonly termed as 'complex'. It starts with a definition of the systems under consideration and how to build up a model to describe the complex dynamics. The subsequent chapters are devoted to various categories of mean-field type models (differential and recurrence equations, chaos) and of agent-based models (cellular automata, networks and power-law distributions). Each chapter is supplemented by a number of exercises and their solutions. The table of contents looks a little arbitrary but the author took the most prominent model systems investigated over the years (and up until now there has been no unified theory covering the various aspects of complex dynamics). The model systems are explained by looking at a number of applications in various fields. The book is written as a textbook for interested students as well as serving as a comprehensive reference for experts. It is an ideal source for topics to be presented in a lecture on dynamics of complex systems. This is the first book on this 'wide' topic and I have long awaited such a book (in fact I planned to write it myself but this is much better than I could ever have written it!). Only section 6 on cellular automata is a little too limited to the author's point of view and one would have expected more about the famous Domany-Kinzel model (and more accurate citation!). In my opinion this is one of the best textbooks published during the last decade and even experts can learn a lot from it. Hopefully there will be an actualization after, say, five years since this field is growing so quickly. The price is too high for students but this, unfortunately, is the normal case today. Nevertheless I think it will be a great success! (book review)

  10. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  11. Polystochastic Models for Complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Iordache, Octavian

    2010-01-01

    This book is devoted to complexity understanding and management, considered as the main source of efficiency and prosperity for the next decades. Divided into six chapters, the book begins with a presentation of basic concepts as complexity, emergence and closure. The second chapter looks to methods and introduces polystochastic models, the wave equation, possibilities and entropy. The third chapter focusing on physical and chemical systems analyzes flow-sheet synthesis, cyclic operations of separation, drug delivery systems and entropy production. Biomimetic systems represent the main objective of the fourth chapter. Case studies refer to bio-inspired calculation methods, to the role of artificial genetic codes, neural networks and neural codes for evolutionary calculus and for evolvable circuits as biomimetic devices. The fifth chapter, taking its inspiration from systems sciences and cognitive sciences looks to engineering design, case base reasoning methods, failure analysis, and multi-agent manufacturing...

  12. SIMPLE MODELS OF COMPLEX BEHAVIOUR

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    SIMPLE MODELS OF COMPLEX BEHAVIOUR · COMPLEXITY IN HUMAN AFFAIRS · COMPLEXITY IN STATISTICAL PHYSICS · DISORDER, CRITICALITY and ORDER IN EQUILIBRIUM SYSTEMS · COARSENING PHENOMENA · NONEQUILIBRIUM STEADY STATES · ORDERING INDUCED BY RANDOM DRIVING.

  13. Understanding the complex interplay between tourism, disability and environmental contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packer, Tanya L; McKercher, Bob; Yau, Matthew K

    2007-02-28

    To explore and describe the complex issues and factors related to participation in tourism as perceived by people with disabilities in Hong Kong. Naturalistic inquiry using key informant interviews and focus groups with 86 people with disabilities. Interviews were transcribed, translated and coded to develop themes and relationships. Triangulation of three investigators from different backgrounds occurred. The Process of Becoming Travel Active emerged as a six-stage process, intricately related to the personal/disability context and the environmental/travel context. Personal and environmental factors contribute to the six-stage model explaining the complex interplay between tourism, disability and environmental context. Understanding the complexity provides insight into ways to increase active participation in tourism. Health, tourism and disability sectors have a role to play in the development of accessible tourism.

  14. Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

    1982-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report

  15. Study of Environmental Data Complexity using Extreme Learning Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    The main goals of environmental data science using machine learning algorithm deal, in a broad sense, around the calibration, the prediction and the visualization of hidden relationship between input and output variables. In order to optimize the models and to understand the phenomenon under study, the characterization of the complexity (at different levels) should be taken into account. Therefore, the identification of the linear or non-linear behavior between input and output variables adds valuable information for the knowledge of the phenomenon complexity. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when identifying the complexity (linear/non-linear) of environmental data using machine learning algorithm. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of a self-consistent methodology for the use of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. By applying two ELM models (with linear and non-linear activation functions) and by comparing their efficiency, quantification of the linearity can be evaluated. The considered approach is accompanied by simulated and real high dimensional and multivariate data case studies. In conclusion, the current challenges and future development in complexity quantification using environmental data mining are discussed. References - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392. - Leuenberger, M., Kanevski, M., 2015. Extreme Learning Machines for spatial environmental data. Computers and Geosciences 85, 64-73.

  16. Environmental Measurements and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental measurement is any data collection activity involving the assessment of chemical, physical, or biological factors in the environment which affect human health. Learn more about these programs and tools that aid in environmental decisions

  17. Advances in complex societal, environmental and engineered systems

    CERN Document Server

    Essaaidi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    This book addresses recent technological progress that has led to an increased complexity in many natural and artificial systems. The resulting complexity research due to the emergence of new properties and spatio-temporal interactions among a large number of system elements - and between the system and its environment - is the primary focus of this text. This volume is divided into three parts: Part one focuses on societal and ecological systems, Part two deals with approaches for understanding, modeling, predicting and mastering socio-technical systems, and Part three includes real-life examples. Each chapter has its own special features; it is a self-contained contribution of distinguished experts working on different fields of science and technology relevant to the study of complex systems. Advances in Complex Systems of Contemporary Reality: Societal, Environmental and Engineered Systems will provide postgraduate students, researchers and managers with qualitative and quantitative methods for handling th...

  18. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  19. Characterising performance of environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennett, N.D.; Croke, B.F.W.; Guariso, G.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Hamilton, S.H.; Jakeman, A.J.; Marsili-Libelli, S.; Newham, L.T.H.; Norton, J.; Perrin, C.; Pierce, S.; Robson, B.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.; Fath, B.D.; Andreassian, V.

    2013-01-01

    In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus

  20. Environmental Perception as a Diagnostic Probe of Environmental Complexity Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Mirlaine R.; Macedo, Renato L. G.; Freitas, Matheus P.; Nunes, Cleiton A.; Venturin, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Educational methods to diagnose and improve the level of environmental conception are required. The present work reports a methodology based on studies about the environmental perception of a university public, divided into general students and those related to the forest sciences, who are involved with disciplines and researches related…

  1. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  2. The ecological complexity of the Thai-Laos Mekong River: II. Metals and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) monitoring, modelling and environmental fate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenan, Helen E; Bangkedphol, Sornnarin; Sakultantimetha, Arthit; Songsasen, Apisit

    2010-11-01

    The Mekong is an essential source of water and protein for the denizens of Thai Laos countries. It is hypothesized that pollution may be adversely affecting the water and sediment quality, which threatens the short and long-term use of this major river system. This directly impacts on the health and population of the aquatic life and ultimately human health and the economy for both countries is affected. The quality of the river can be assessed from various chemical and physical parameters, such as PAHs and metals content of both the water and the sediment. The introduction of Environmental Quality Standards (EQS) allows comparison of the values obtained with the guidelines. Furthermore the modelling program EPISUITE was used to determine the environmental partitioning of pollutants within the different environmental compartments. Using the data produced for PAHs and metals the experimental model was compared to the default model. This involved experimentally measuring the log K(oc) for Mekong sediments and from this determining the log K(ow). High availability in sediment of pollutants may lead to greater biomagnification in bethnic fish, which may then be hazardous for human consumption even if it is safe for the species that is accumulating pollutants. The potential for this is shown by the calculated accumulation in biota C(bio) values exceeding both the Chronic value (ChrV) and Lethal Concentration 50 (LC(50)) for fish in the Mekong River. When compared to the EQS guidelines the amount of some PAHs, cadmium and lead in sediment were above the lowest effect level but below the severe effect level.

  3. Correcting environmental problems facing the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rezendes, V.S.

    1990-06-01

    This report discusses DOE's efforts to correct the environmental problems facing the nuclear weapons complex. It focuses on three main points. First, the weapons complex faces a variety of serious and costly environmental problems. Second, during the past year, DOE has made some important changes to its organization that should help change its management focus from one that emphasizes materials production to one that more clearly focuses on environmental concerns. Third, because resolution of DOE's environmental problems will require considerable resources during a period of budgetary constraints, it is imperative that DOE have internal controls in place to ensure that resources are spent efficiently

  4. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  5. Kolmogorov Complexity and Chaotic Phenomenon in Computing the Environmental Interface Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, Dragutin T.; Mimić, Gordan

    2012-10-01

    In this paper, we consider the chaotic phenomenon and Kolomogorov complexity in computing the environmental interface temperature. First, the environmental interface is defined in the context of the complex system, in particular for autonomous dynamical systems. Then we consider the following issues in modeling procedure: (i) how to replace given differential equations by appropriate difference equations in modeling of phenomena in the environmental world? (ii) whether a mathematically correct solution to the corresponding differential equation or system of equations is always physically possible and (iii) phenomenon of chaos in autonomous dynamical systems in environmental problems, in particular in solving the energy balance equation to calculate environmental interface temperature. The difference form of this equation for computing the environmental interface temperature is discussed and analyzed depending on parameters of equation, using the Lyapunov exponent and sample entropy. Finally, the Kolmogorov complexity of time series obtained from this difference equation is analyzed.

  6. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R.; Gimeno, B. S.; Bermejo, V.; Elvira, S.; Martin, F.; Palacios, M.; Rodriguez, E.; Donaire, I. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  7. Environmental Complexity: ethic-environmental propositions of the Latin- American Environmental Thought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguera de Echeverri, Ana Patricia

    2007-01-01

    In this article, are compiled the most important ethic-environmental propositions of the Latin- American Environmental Thought, that had been growing up 30 years ago. In it are authors outlined in the field of the philosophic environmental thought, as the philosopher and Colombian thinker, of Latin-American transcendence, Augusto Angel Maya, who pustules the possibility of build en Ethical - Esthetic Environmental Philosophy, in fact of the Modern Philosophy have been metaphysic, even in the empiric, positivist and neo-positivist tendencies. It has been outlined the Enrique Leff's work, Mexican, who proposes his concepts of Complexity and Environmental Known as an initial point of an ethic in the education, science and technology into of an systemic and holistic relations. Equally, the Julio Carrizosa's ethical - esthetic proposition, also Colombian, which this essay shows as a fundamental political propose against Colombian problems as violence and exclusion. The propositions of Colombian philosophers of big relevance in the politic-moral philosophy had become in a public and communicative environmental ethic, that's the case of Guillermo Hoyos Vasquez and other thinkers as in Colombia and so other Latin-American countries which are shown in this space, with the finality of to pick up in a critical way our ideas about the possibility of an environmental ethic, that means an decentred ethic, with out subject and object, and systemic ethic, where the values has come being constructed 2.500 millions years ago, of which we are pure threads, an ethic that pass of been an object to be first a value in his greater sense

  8. Dimensionality reduction in complex models

    OpenAIRE

    Boukouvalas, Alexis; Maniyar, Dharmesh M.; Cornford, Dan

    2007-01-01

    As a part of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM) project, research at Aston University will develop methods for dimensionality reduction of the input and/or output spaces of models, as seen within the emulator framework. Towards this end this report describes a framework for generating toy datasets, whose underlying structure is understood, to facilitate early investigations of dimensionality reduction methods and to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithms employed, both i...

  9. The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James G Dyke

    Full Text Available The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

  10. The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyke, James G; Weaver, Iain S

    2013-01-01

    The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

  11. Computational models of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Dabbaghian, Vahid

    2014-01-01

    Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

  12. Communication models in environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidotti, Tee L

    2013-01-01

    Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

  13. Complex Networks in Psychological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.

    We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.

  14. Complex fluids modeling and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Saramito, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a comprehensive overview of the modeling of complex fluids, including many common substances, such as toothpaste, hair gel, mayonnaise, liquid foam, cement and blood, which cannot be described by Navier-Stokes equations. It also offers an up-to-date mathematical and numerical analysis of the corresponding equations, as well as several practical numerical algorithms and software solutions for the approximation of the solutions. It discusses industrial (molten plastics, forming process), geophysical (mud flows, volcanic lava, glaciers and snow avalanches), and biological (blood flows, tissues) modeling applications. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, mechanical engineering and physics.

  15. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...

  16. Complexity and interdisciplinary approaches to environmental research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    2013-03-01

    The launch of volume 8 of Environmental Research Letters (ERL) comes at a critical time in terms of innovations and exciting areas of science, but particularly in the areas linking environmental research and action. The most recent climate change Conference of the Parties meeting (COP), in Doha in December 2012, has now come and gone. As has been dissected in the press, very little was accomplished. Some will see this as a failure, as I do, and others will reasonably enough note that this meeting, the 18th such COP was1 never intended to be a milestone moment. The current plan, in fact, is for a 'post-Kyoto' international climate agreement to be adopted only at the COP20 summit in December 2015. As we lead up to COP20, and potentially other regional or national approaches to climate protection, innovations in science, innovations in policy tools, and political commitment must come together. The science of climate change only continues to get clearer and clearer, and bleaker [1]. Later this year the IPCC will release its Fifth Assessment Report, AR5. The draft versions are out for review now. ERL has published a number of papers on climate change science, mitigation and adaptation, but one area where the world needs a particular focus is on the nexus of science and action. A summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings from the first assessment report (FAR; 1990) to the latest report is presented in figure 1. This graphic is specifically not about the scientific record alone. What is most important about this figure is the juxtaposition of the language of science and the language of ... language. Figure 1. Figure 1. A superposition of the state of climate science in three key data sets, and the dates of the first, second, third and fourth assessment reports (FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4, respectively) plotted as vertical lines. On the right are the key statements from each of these reports, along with the conclusion of the Special Report on

  17. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  18. Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

  19. Compliance with Environmental Regulations through Complex Geo-Event Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Herrera

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In a context of e-government, there are usually regulatory compliance requirements that support systems must monitor, control and enforce. These requirements may come from environmental laws and regulations that aim to protect the natural environment and mitigate the effects of pollution on human health and ecosystems. Monitoring compliance with these requirements involves processing a large volume of data from different sources, which is a major challenge. This volume is also increased with data coming from autonomous sensors (e.g. reporting carbon emission in protected areas and from citizens providing information (e.g. illegal dumping in a voluntary way. Complex Event Processing (CEP technologies allow processing large amount of event data and detecting patterns from them. However, they do not provide native support for the geographic dimension of events which is essential for monitoring requirements which apply to specific geographic areas. This paper proposes a geospatial extension for CEP that allows monitoring environmental requirements considering the geographic location of the processed data. We extend an existing platform-independent, model-driven approach for CEP adding the geographic location to events and specifying patterns using geographic operators. The use and technical feasibility of the proposal is shown through the development of a case study and the implementation of a prototype.

  20. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  1. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  2. On the Way to Appropriate Model Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höge, M.

    2016-12-01

    When statistical models are used to represent natural phenomena they are often too simple or too complex - this is known. But what exactly is model complexity? Among many other definitions, the complexity of a model can be conceptualized as a measure of statistical dependence between observations and parameters (Van der Linde, 2014). However, several issues remain when working with model complexity: A unique definition for model complexity is missing. Assuming a definition is accepted, how can model complexity be quantified? How can we use a quantified complexity to the better of modeling? Generally defined, "complexity is a measure of the information needed to specify the relationships between the elements of organized systems" (Bawden & Robinson, 2015). The complexity of a system changes as the knowledge about the system changes. For models this means that complexity is not a static concept: With more data or higher spatio-temporal resolution of parameters, the complexity of a model changes. There are essentially three categories into which all commonly used complexity measures can be classified: (1) An explicit representation of model complexity as "Degrees of freedom" of a model, e.g. effective number of parameters. (2) Model complexity as code length, a.k.a. "Kolmogorov complexity": The longer the shortest model code, the higher its complexity (e.g. in bits). (3) Complexity defined via information entropy of parametric or predictive uncertainty. Preliminary results show that Bayes theorem allows for incorporating all parts of the non-static concept of model complexity like data quality and quantity or parametric uncertainty. Therefore, we test how different approaches for measuring model complexity perform in comparison to a fully Bayesian model selection procedure. Ultimately, we want to find a measure that helps to assess the most appropriate model.

  3. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  4. Health and environmental effects of complex chemical mixtures: proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) of the Department of Energy supports a broad long-term research program on human health and environmental effects from potential exposure to energy-related complex chemical mixtures. The program seeks basic mechanistic data on the effects of complex mixtures at the cellular, molecular, and whole animal levels to aid in predicting human health effects and seeks ecological data on biological and physical transformations in the mixtures, concentrations of the mixtures in various compartments of the environment, and potential routes for human exposure to these mixtures (e.g., food chain). On June 17-18, 1985, OHER held its First Annual Technical Meeting on the Complex Chemical Mixtures Program in Chicago, IL. The primary purpose of the meeting was to enable principal investigators to report the research status and accomplishments of ongoing complex chemical mixture studies supported by OHER. To help focus future research directions round table discussions were conducted.

  5. Environmental impact assessment for the Nova projects (Building 391 complex)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, B.N.

    1979-01-01

    The environmental impact assessment of the Nova projects (Building 391 Complex) describes (1) the proposed actions, (2) the existing environment in and around the Livermore Valley, and (3) the potential environmental impacts from the construction and operation of these facilities. It shows that the proposed action does not conflict with any Federal, State, Regional, or Local Plans and Programs. Possible alternatives to the proposed action are discussed. However, it is concluded that the proposed actions were the most reasonable of the alternatives and would involve relatively minor adverse environmental impacts

  6. Environmental Survey preliminary report, Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex, Piketon, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex (PUEC), conducted August 4 through August 15, 1986. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Team specialists are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at PUEC, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by Argonne National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the PUEC Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the PUEC Survey. 55 refs., 22 figs., 21 tabs

  7. Environmental Survey preliminary report, Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex, Piketon, Ohio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-08-01

    This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex (PUEC), conducted August 4 through August 15, 1986. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Team specialists are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at PUEC, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by Argonne National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the PUEC Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the PUEC Survey. 55 refs., 22 figs., 21 tabs.

  8. Environmental monitoring program for Itataia industrial complex before operational phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Condessa, M.L.M.B.

    1982-01-01

    This environmental monitoring program aims to characterize the environment in adjacent area of Itataia Industrial Complex. The places and frequencies of samples and measurements, as well as analysis and parameters to be measured in each type of samples are presented. (C.M.) [pt

  9. Thermodynamic modeling of complex systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Xiaodong

    . Contrary to earlier theories, the oil is not only present on the surface, but also in great volumes both in the water column and on the seafloor, which indicates that we do not know enough about how oil behaves in water and interacts with it. Sonar detection is one of the most important and necessary...... after an oil spill. Engineering thermodynamics could be applied in the state-of-the-art sonar products through advanced artificial technology, if the speed of sound, solubility and density of oil-seawater systems could be satisfactorily modelled. The addition of methanol or glycols into unprocessed well...... streams during subsea pipelines is necessary to inhibit gas hydrate formation, and the offshore reservoirs often mean complicated temperature and pressure conditions. Accurate description of the phase behavior and thermalphysical properties of complex systems containing petroleum fluids and polar...

  10. Environmental layout complexity affects neural activity during navigation in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slone, Edward; Burles, Ford; Iaria, Giuseppe

    2016-05-01

    Navigating large-scale surroundings is a fundamental ability. In humans, it is commonly assumed that navigational performance is affected by individual differences, such as age, sex, and cognitive strategies adopted for orientation. We recently showed that the layout of the environment itself also influences how well people are able to find their way within it, yet it remains unclear whether differences in environmental complexity are associated with changes in brain activity during navigation. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate how the brain responds to a change in environmental complexity by asking participants to perform a navigation task in two large-scale virtual environments that differed solely in interconnection density, a measure of complexity defined as the average number of directional choices at decision points. The results showed that navigation in the simpler, less interconnected environment was faster and more accurate relative to the complex environment, and such performance was associated with increased activity in a number of brain areas (i.e. precuneus, retrosplenial cortex, and hippocampus) known to be involved in mental imagery, navigation, and memory. These findings provide novel evidence that environmental complexity not only affects navigational behaviour, but also modulates activity in brain regions that are important for successful orientation and navigation. © 2016 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. DEEP ECOLOGY: THE AWAKENING PROCESS TO A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Braga Lovatto

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Facing the contemporary environmental crisis, the environmental education emerges as a tool for coping and minimizing the impacts of human civilization on natural resources. So, in most of the works, what is observed is the predominance of environmental thinking, often devoid of ecosystem vision. The speech is limited to the need of preserving resources related to a distorted and uncritical development. Little attention is given to the dimensions of sustainability, the environment being treated as a part of the individual, mere outer portion of the human body. This perspective demonstrates the fragility of this speech to an effective awareness by revealing the disorder of the actions that occur within a deterministic ecological process, with little attention to the educational sphere, related to cognitive, ethical and cultural factors. Within these aspects, Complex Environmental Education suggests self-knowledge, awareness and environmental action in pursuit of the development that considers the integral quality of life, rather than the economic variable. In this sense, the deep ecology booster acts as an agent in the process of awakening to environmental education that is self-sustainability and so complex, because it helps the human perception on the integrative and dependent view of all beings, unifying them for the life.

  12. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  13. AN INTEGRATED NETWORK APPROACH TO IDENTIFYING BIOLOGICAL PATHWAYS AND ENVIRONMENTAL EXPOSURE INTERACTIONS IN COMPLEX DISEASES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darabos, Christian; Qiu, Jingya; Moore, Jason H

    2016-01-01

    Complex diseases are the result of intricate interactions between genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors. In previous studies, we used epidemiological and genetic data linking environmental exposure or genetic variants to phenotypic disease to construct Human Phenotype Networks and separately analyze the effects of both environment and genetic factors on disease interactions. To better capture the intricacies of the interactions between environmental exposure and the biological pathways in complex disorders, we integrate both aspects into a single "tripartite" network. Despite extensive research, the mechanisms by which chemical agents disrupt biological pathways are still poorly understood. In this study, we use our integrated network model to identify specific biological pathway candidates possibly disrupted by environmental agents. We conjecture that a higher number of co-occurrences between an environmental substance and biological pathway pair can be associated with a higher likelihood that the substance is involved in disrupting that pathway. We validate our model by demonstrating its ability to detect known arsenic and signal transduction pathway interactions and speculate on candidate cell-cell junction organization pathways disrupted by cadmium. The validation was supported by distinct publications of cell biology and genetic studies that associated environmental exposure to pathway disruption. The integrated network approach is a novel method for detecting the biological effects of environmental exposures. A better understanding of the molecular processes associated with specific environmental exposures will help in developing targeted molecular therapies for patients who have been exposed to the toxicity of environmental chemicals.

  14. Environmental model for a capital city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

  15. Environmental problems indicator under environmental modeling toward sustainable development

    OpenAIRE

    P. Sutthichaimethee; W. Tanoamchard; P. Sawangwong; P Pachana; N. Witit-Anun

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to apply a model to the study and analysis of environmental and natural resource costs created in supply chains of goods and services produced in Thailand, and propose indicators for environmental problem management, caused by goods and services production, based on concepts of sustainable production and consumer behavior. The research showed that the highest environmental cost in terms of Natural Resource Materials was from pipelines and gas distribution, while the lowest ...

  16. Climate Predictions: The Chaos and Complexity in Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Mihailović

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Gödel’s theorem and Rosen’s definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. Occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form is pointed out. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models, was analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this system. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, was analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameter, the logistic parameter, and the parameter of exchange, were studied calculating the Lyapunov exponent under simulations with the closed contour of N=100 environmental interfaces. Finally, we have explored possible differences in complexities of two global and two regional climate models using their air temperature and precipitation output time series. The complexities were obtained with the algorithm for calculating the Kolmogorov complexity.

  17. Complexity analysis of the turbulent environmental fluid flow time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, D. T.; Nikolić-Đorić, E.; Drešković, N.; Mimić, G.

    2014-02-01

    We have used the Kolmogorov complexities, sample and permutation entropies to quantify the randomness degree in river flow time series of two mountain rivers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, representing the turbulent environmental fluid, for the period 1926-1990. In particular, we have examined the monthly river flow time series from two rivers (the Miljacka and the Bosnia) in the mountain part of their flow and then calculated the Kolmogorov complexity (KL) based on the Lempel-Ziv Algorithm (LZA) (lower-KLL and upper-KLU), sample entropy (SE) and permutation entropy (PE) values for each time series. The results indicate that the KLL, KLU, SE and PE values in two rivers are close to each other regardless of the amplitude differences in their monthly flow rates. We have illustrated the changes in mountain river flow complexity by experiments using (i) the data set for the Bosnia River and (ii) anticipated human activities and projected climate changes. We have explored the sensitivity of considered measures in dependence on the length of time series. In addition, we have divided the period 1926-1990 into three subintervals: (a) 1926-1945, (b) 1946-1965, (c) 1966-1990, and calculated the KLL, KLU, SE, PE values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1946-1965, there is a decrease in their complexities, and corresponding changes in the SE and PE, in comparison to the period 1926-1990. This complexity loss may be primarily attributed to (i) human interventions, after the Second World War, on these two rivers because of their use for water consumption and (ii) climate change in recent times.

  18. Selecting model complexity in learning problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buescher, K.L. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Kumar, P.R. [Illinois Univ., Urbana, IL (United States). Coordinated Science Lab.

    1993-10-01

    To learn (or generalize) from noisy data, one must resist the temptation to pick a model for the underlying process that overfits the data. Many existing techniques solve this problem at the expense of requiring the evaluation of an absolute, a priori measure of each model`s complexity. We present a method that does not. Instead, it uses a natural, relative measure of each model`s complexity. This method first creates a pool of ``simple`` candidate models using part of the data and then selects from among these by using the rest of the data.

  19. Examining complexity across domains: relating subjective and objective measures of affective environmental scenes, paintings and music.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela M Marin

    Full Text Available Subjective complexity has been found to be related to hedonic measures of preference, pleasantness and beauty, but there is no consensus about the nature of this relationship in the visual and musical domains. Moreover, the affective content of stimuli has been largely neglected so far in the study of complexity but is crucial in many everyday contexts and in aesthetic experiences. We thus propose a cross-domain approach that acknowledges the multidimensional nature of complexity and that uses a wide range of objective complexity measures combined with subjective ratings. In four experiments, we employed pictures of affective environmental scenes, representational paintings, and Romantic solo and chamber music excerpts. Stimuli were pre-selected to vary in emotional content (pleasantness and arousal and complexity (low versus high number of elements. For each set of stimuli, in a between-subjects design, ratings of familiarity, complexity, pleasantness and arousal were obtained for a presentation time of 25 s from 152 participants. In line with Berlyne's collative-motivation model, statistical analyses controlling for familiarity revealed a positive relationship between subjective complexity and arousal, and the highest correlations were observed for musical stimuli. Evidence for a mediating role of arousal in the complexity-pleasantness relationship was demonstrated in all experiments, but was only significant for females with regard to music. The direction and strength of the linear relationship between complexity and pleasantness depended on the stimulus type and gender. For environmental scenes, the root mean square contrast measures and measures of compressed file size correlated best with subjective complexity, whereas only edge detection based on phase congruency yielded equivalent results for representational paintings. Measures of compressed file size and event density also showed positive correlations with complexity and arousal in

  20. Examining complexity across domains: relating subjective and objective measures of affective environmental scenes, paintings and music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, Manuela M; Leder, Helmut

    2013-01-01

    Subjective complexity has been found to be related to hedonic measures of preference, pleasantness and beauty, but there is no consensus about the nature of this relationship in the visual and musical domains. Moreover, the affective content of stimuli has been largely neglected so far in the study of complexity but is crucial in many everyday contexts and in aesthetic experiences. We thus propose a cross-domain approach that acknowledges the multidimensional nature of complexity and that uses a wide range of objective complexity measures combined with subjective ratings. In four experiments, we employed pictures of affective environmental scenes, representational paintings, and Romantic solo and chamber music excerpts. Stimuli were pre-selected to vary in emotional content (pleasantness and arousal) and complexity (low versus high number of elements). For each set of stimuli, in a between-subjects design, ratings of familiarity, complexity, pleasantness and arousal were obtained for a presentation time of 25 s from 152 participants. In line with Berlyne's collative-motivation model, statistical analyses controlling for familiarity revealed a positive relationship between subjective complexity and arousal, and the highest correlations were observed for musical stimuli. Evidence for a mediating role of arousal in the complexity-pleasantness relationship was demonstrated in all experiments, but was only significant for females with regard to music. The direction and strength of the linear relationship between complexity and pleasantness depended on the stimulus type and gender. For environmental scenes, the root mean square contrast measures and measures of compressed file size correlated best with subjective complexity, whereas only edge detection based on phase congruency yielded equivalent results for representational paintings. Measures of compressed file size and event density also showed positive correlations with complexity and arousal in music, which is

  1. Role models for complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichardt, J.; White, D. R.

    2007-11-01

    We present a framework for automatically decomposing (“block-modeling”) the functional classes of agents within a complex network. These classes are represented by the nodes of an image graph (“block model”) depicting the main patterns of connectivity and thus functional roles in the network. Using a first principles approach, we derive a measure for the fit of a network to any given image graph allowing objective hypothesis testing. From the properties of an optimal fit, we derive how to find the best fitting image graph directly from the network and present a criterion to avoid overfitting. The method can handle both two-mode and one-mode data, directed and undirected as well as weighted networks and allows for different types of links to be dealt with simultaneously. It is non-parametric and computationally efficient. The concepts of structural equivalence and modularity are found as special cases of our approach. We apply our method to the world trade network and analyze the roles individual countries play in the global economy.

  2. Integrated Bayesian network framework for modeling complex ecological issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Sandra; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-07-01

    The management of environmental problems is multifaceted, requiring varied and sometimes conflicting objectives and perspectives to be considered. Bayesian network (BN) modeling facilitates the integration of information from diverse sources and is well suited to tackling the management challenges of complex environmental problems. However, combining several perspectives in one model can lead to large, unwieldy BNs that are difficult to maintain and understand. Conversely, an oversimplified model may lead to an unrealistic representation of the environmental problem. Environmental managers require the current research and available knowledge about an environmental problem of interest to be consolidated in a meaningful way, thereby enabling the assessment of potential impacts and different courses of action. Previous investigations of the environmental problem of interest may have already resulted in the construction of several disparate ecological models. On the other hand, the opportunity may exist to initiate this modeling. In the first instance, the challenge is to integrate existing models and to merge the information and perspectives from these models. In the second instance, the challenge is to include different aspects of the environmental problem incorporating both the scientific and management requirements. Although the paths leading to the combined model may differ for these 2 situations, the common objective is to design an integrated model that captures the available information and research, yet is simple to maintain, expand, and refine. BN modeling is typically an iterative process, and we describe a heuristic method, the iterative Bayesian network development cycle (IBNDC), for the development of integrated BN models that are suitable for both situations outlined above. The IBNDC approach facilitates object-oriented BN (OOBN) modeling, arguably viewed as the next logical step in adaptive management modeling, and that embraces iterative development

  3. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2008-12-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.

  4. Environmental influences on neural systems of relational complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Layne eKalbfleisch

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Constructivist learning theory contends that we construct knowledge by experience and that environmental context influences learning. To explore this principle, we examined the cognitive process relational complexity (RC, defined as the number of visual dimensions considered during problem solving on a matrix reasoning task and a well-documented measure of mature reasoning capacity. We sought to determine how the visual environment influences RC by examining the influence of color and visual contrast on RC in a neuroimaging task. To specify the contributions of sensory demand and relational integration to reasoning, our participants performed a non-verbal matrix task comprised of color, no-color line, or black-white visual contrast conditions parametrically varied by complexity (relations 0, 1, 2. The use of matrix reasoning is ecologically valid for its psychometric relevance and for its potential to link the processing of psychophysically specific visual properties with various levels of relational complexity during reasoning. The role of these elements is important because matrix tests assess intellectual aptitude based on these seemingly context-less exercises. This experiment is a first step toward examining the psychophysical underpinnings of performance on these types of problems. The importance of this is increased in light of recent evidence that intelligence can be linked to visual discrimination. We submit three main findings. First, color and black-white visual contrast add demand at a basic sensory level, but contributions from color and from black-white visual contrast are dissociable in cortex such that color engages a reasoning heuristic and black-white visual contrast engages a sensory heuristic. Second, color supports contextual sense-making by boosting salience resulting in faster problem solving. Lastly, when visual complexity reaches 2-relations, color and visual contrast relinquish salience to other dimensions of problem

  5. Computational Modeling of Complex Protein Activity Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Leijten, Jeroen; Karperien, Marcel; Post, Janine N.; Prignet, Claude

    2017-01-01

    Because of the numerous entities interacting, the complexity of the networks that regulate cell fate makes it impossible to analyze and understand them using the human brain alone. Computational modeling is a powerful method to unravel complex systems. We recently described the development of a

  6. Mixture model analysis of complex samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; ter Hofstede, F; Steenkamp, JBEM

    1998-01-01

    We investigate the effects of a complex sampling design on the estimation of mixture models. An approximate or pseudo likelihood approach is proposed to obtain consistent estimates of class-specific parameters when the sample arises from such a complex design. The effects of ignoring the sample

  7. Information, complexity and efficiency: The automobile model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allenby, B. [Lucent Technologies (United States)]|[Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-08-08

    The new, rapidly evolving field of industrial ecology - the objective, multidisciplinary study of industrial and economic systems and their linkages with fundamental natural systems - provides strong ground for believing that a more environmentally and economically efficient economy will be more information intensive and complex. Information and intellectual capital will be substituted for the more traditional inputs of materials and energy in producing a desirable, yet sustainable, quality of life. While at this point this remains a strong hypothesis, the evolution of the automobile industry can be used to illustrate how such substitution may, in fact, already be occurring in an environmentally and economically critical sector.

  8. Specialized Environmental Chamber Test Complex: User Test Planning Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montz, Michael E.

    2011-01-01

    Test process, milestones and inputs are unknowns to first-time users of the Specialized Environmental Test Complex. The User Test Planning Guide aids in establishing expectations for both NASA and non-NASA facility customers. The potential audience for this guide includes both internal and commercial spaceflight hardware/software developers. It is intended to assist their test engineering personnel in test planning and execution. Material covered includes a roadmap of the test process, roles and responsibilities of facility and user, major milestones, facility capabilities, and inputs required by the facility. Samples of deliverables, test article interfaces, and inputs necessary to define test scope, cost, and schedule are included as an appendix to the guide.

  9. Hierarchy and Interactions in Environmental Interfaces Regarded as Biophysical Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailovic, Dragutin T.; Balaz, Igor

    The field of environmental sciences is abundant with various interfaces and is the right place for the application of new fundamental approaches leading towards a better understanding of environmental phenomena. For example, following the definition of environmental interface by Mihailovic and Balaž [23], such interface can be placed between: human or animal bodies and surrounding air, aquatic species and water and air around them, and natural or artificially built surfaces (vegetation, ice, snow, barren soil, water, urban communities) and the atmosphere. Complex environmental interface systems are open and hierarchically organised, interactions between their constituent parts are nonlinear, and the interaction with the surrounding environment is noisy. These systems are therefore very sensitive to initial conditions, deterministic external perturbations and random fluctuations always present in nature. The study of noisy non-equilibrium processes is fundamental for modelling the dynamics of environmental interface systems and for understanding the mechanisms of spatio-temporal pattern formation in contemporary environmental sciences, particularly in environmental fluid mechanics. In modelling complex biophysical systems one of the main tasks is to successfully create an operative interface with the external environment. It should provide a robust and prompt translation of the vast diversity of external physical and/or chemical changes into a set of signals, which are "understandable" for an organism. Although the establishment of organisation in any system is of crucial importance for its functioning, it should not be forgotten that in biophysical systems we deal with real-life problems where a number of other conditions should be reached in order to put the system to work. One of them is the proper supply of the system by the energy. Therefore, we will investigate an aspect of dynamics of energy flow based on the energy balance equation. The energy as well as

  10. Environmental influences on neural systems of relational complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalbfleisch, M Layne; Debettencourt, Megan T; Kopperman, Rebecca; Banasiak, Meredith; Roberts, Joshua M; Halavi, Maryam

    2013-01-01

    Constructivist learning theory contends that we construct knowledge by experience and that environmental context influences learning. To explore this principle, we examined the cognitive process relational complexity (RC), defined as the number of visual dimensions considered during problem solving on a matrix reasoning task and a well-documented measure of mature reasoning capacity. We sought to determine how the visual environment influences RC by examining the influence of color and visual contrast on RC in a neuroimaging task. To specify the contributions of sensory demand and relational integration to reasoning, our participants performed a non-verbal matrix task comprised of color, no-color line, or black-white visual contrast conditions parametrically varied by complexity (relations 0, 1, 2). The use of matrix reasoning is ecologically valid for its psychometric relevance and for its potential to link the processing of psychophysically specific visual properties with various levels of RC during reasoning. The role of these elements is important because matrix tests assess intellectual aptitude based on these seemingly context-less exercises. This experiment is a first step toward examining the psychophysical underpinnings of performance on these types of problems. The importance of this is increased in light of recent evidence that intelligence can be linked to visual discrimination. We submit three main findings. First, color and black-white visual contrast (BWVC) add demand at a basic sensory level, but contributions from color and from BWVC are dissociable in cortex such that color engages a "reasoning heuristic" and BWVC engages a "sensory heuristic." Second, color supports contextual sense-making by boosting salience resulting in faster problem solving. Lastly, when visual complexity reaches 2-relations, color and visual contrast relinquish salience to other dimensions of problem solving.

  11. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  12. Integrated Environmental Modelling: human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  13. Combined Mechanistic and Transport Modelling of Metal Humate Complexes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bryan, N. D.; Jones, D.; Griffin, D.

    1999-01-01

    RMC-Environmental Contribution to Task 4, (Model Development and Testing). Reporting period 1998.......RMC-Environmental Contribution to Task 4, (Model Development and Testing). Reporting period 1998....

  14. Assessing the Role of Environmental Factors on Baltic Cod Recruitment, a Complex Adaptive System Emergent Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionysis Krekoukiotis

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available For decades, fish recruitment has been a subject of intensive research with stock–recruitment models commonly used for recruitment prediction often only explaining a small fraction of the inter-annual recruitment variation. The use of environmental information to improve our ability to predict recruitment, could contribute considerably to fisheries management. However, the problem remains difficult because the mechanisms behind such complex relationships are often poorly understood; this in turn, makes it difficult to determine the forecast estimation robustness, leading to the failure of some relationships when new data become available. The utility of machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANNs for solving complex problems has been demonstrated in aquatic studies and has led many researchers to advocate ANNs as an attractive, non-linear alternative to traditional statistical methods. The goal of this study is to design a Baltic cod recruitment model (FishANN that can account for complex ecosystem interactions. To this end, we (1 build a quantitative model representation of the conceptual understanding of the complex ecosystem interactions driving Baltic cod recruitment dynamics, and (2 apply the model to strengthen the current capability to project future changes in Baltic cod recruitment. FishANN is demonstrated to bring multiple stressors together into one model framework and estimate the relative importance of these stressors while interpreting the complex nonlinear interactions between them. Additional requirements to further improve the current study in the future are also proposed.

  15. Modeling nanomaterial environmental fate in aquatic systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dale, Amy L; Casman, Elizabeth A; Lowry, Gregory V; Lead, Jamie R; Viparelli, Enrica; Baalousha, Mohammed

    2015-03-03

    Mathematical models improve our fundamental understanding of the environmental behavior, fate, and transport of engineered nanomaterials (NMs, chemical substances or materials roughly 1-100 nm in size) and facilitate risk assessment and management activities. Although today's large-scale environmental fate models for NMs are a considerable improvement over early efforts, a gap still remains between the experimental research performed to date on the environmental fate of NMs and its incorporation into models. This article provides an introduction to the current state of the science in modeling the fate and behavior of NMs in aquatic environments. We address the strengths and weaknesses of existing fate models, identify the challenges facing researchers in developing and validating these models, and offer a perspective on how these challenges can be addressed through the combined efforts of modelers and experimentalists.

  16. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  17. From Complex to Simple: Interdisciplinary Stochastic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazilu, D. A.; Zamora, G.; Mazilu, I.

    2012-01-01

    We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions…

  18. Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veer, Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert

    1996-01-01

    Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the

  19. Mapping the environmental and biogeographic complexity of the Amazon basin using remote sensing methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streher, A. S.; Cordeiro, C. L. O.; Silva, T. S. F.

    2017-12-01

    Mapping environmental envelopes onto geographical space has been classically important for understanding biogeographical patterns. Knowing the biotic and abiotic limits defining these envelopes, we can better understand the requirements limiting species distributions. Most present efforts in this regard have focused on single-species distribution models, but the current breadth and accessibility of quantitative, spatially explicit environmental information can also be explored from an environment-first perspective. We thus used remote sensing to determine the occurrence of environmental discontinuities in the Amazon region and evaluated if such discontinuities may act as barriers to determine species distribution and range limits, forming clear environmental envelopes. We combined data on topography (SRTM), precipitation (CHIRPS), vegetation descriptors (PALSAR-1 backscattering, biomass, NDVI) and temperature (MODIS), using object-based image analysis and unsupervised learning to map environmental envelopes. We identified 14 environmental envelopes for the Amazon sensu latissimo region, mainly delimited by changes in vegetation, topography and precipitation. The resulting envelopes were compared to the distribution of 120 species of Trogonidae, Galbulidae, Bucconidae, Cebidae, Hylidae and Lecythidaceae, amounting to 22,649 occurrence records within the Amazonregion. We determined species prevalence in each envelope by calculating the ratio between species relative frequency per envelope and envelope relative frequency (area) in the complete map. Values closer to 1 indicate a high degree of prevalence. We found strong envelope associations (prevalence > 0.5) for 20 species (17% of analyzed taxa). Although several biogeographical and ecological factors will influence the distribution of a species, our results show that not only geographical barriers, but also modern environmental discontinuities may limit the distribution of some species., and may have also done so

  20. Updating the debate on model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2012-01-01

    As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

  1. Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control. PMID:26247591

  2. Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Cilliers

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

  3. Multiscale modeling of complex materials phenomenological, theoretical and computational aspects

    CERN Document Server

    Trovalusci, Patrizia

    2014-01-01

    The papers in this volume deal with materials science, theoretical mechanics and experimental and computational techniques at multiple scales, providing a sound base and a framework for many applications which are hitherto treated in a phenomenological sense. The basic principles are formulated of multiscale modeling strategies towards modern complex multiphase materials subjected to various types of mechanical, thermal loadings and environmental effects. The focus is on problems where mechanics is highly coupled with other concurrent physical phenomena. Attention is also focused on the historical origins of multiscale modeling and foundations of continuum mechanics currently adopted to model non-classical continua with substructure, for which internal length scales play a crucial role.

  4. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  5. Fatigue modeling of materials with complex microstructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2011-01-01

    with the phenomenological model of fatigue damage growth. As a result, the fatigue lifetime of materials with complex structures can be determined as a function of the parameters of their structures. As an example, the fatigue lifetimes of wood modeled as a cellular material with multilayered, fiber reinforced walls were...... determined for different parameters of wood microstructures. In so doing, 3D hierarchical finite element models of softwood, and a computational technique, including the repeating restart and model change procedures, have been employed to model the fatigue response of latewood....

  6. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  7. Complexities in a Plant-Herbivore Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajni SHARMA

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A simple host-parasite type model has been considered to study the interaction of certain plants and herbivores. The two dimensional discrete time model utilizes leaf and herbivore biomass as state variables. The parameter space consists of the growth rate of the host population and a parameter describing the damage inflicted by herbivores. Perceptive bifurcation diagrams, which give insightful results, have been present here showing chaos and complexity in the system during evolution. Measure of complexity and chaos in the system be explained by performing numerical calculations and obtaining Lyapunov exponents, topological entropies and correlation dimension. Results are displayed through interesting graphics.

  8. Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Bertelle, Cyrille; Kadri-Dahmani, Hakima

    2009-01-01

    The concern of this book is the use of emergent computing and self-organization modelling within various applications of complex systems. The authors focus their attention both on the innovative concepts and implementations in order to model self-organizations, but also on the relevant applicative domains in which they can be used efficiently. This book is the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006 (Eurosis), held in Toulouse, France in October 2006.

  9. The Kuramoto model in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Peron, Thomas K. DM.; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

  10. Geometric Modelling with a-Complexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerritsen, B.H.M.; Werff, K. van der; Veltkamp, R.C.

    2001-01-01

    The shape of real objects can be so complicated, that only a sampling data point set can accurately represent them. Analytic descriptions are too complicated or impossible. Natural objects, for example, can be vague and rough with many holes. For this kind of modelling, a-complexes offer advantages

  11. Modeling interfacial liquid layers on environmental ices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Kuo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Interfacial layers on ice significantly influence air-ice chemical interactions. In solute-containing aqueous systems, a liquid brine may form upon freezing due to the exclusion of impurities from the ice crystal lattice coupled with freezing point depression in the concentrated brine. The brine may be segregated to the air-ice interface where it creates a surface layer, in micropockets, or at grain boundaries or triple junctions.

    We present a model for brines and their associated liquid layers in environmental ice systems that is valid over a wide range of temperatures and solute concentrations. The model is derived from fundamental equlibrium thermodynamics and takes into account nonideal solution behavior in the brine, partitioning of the solute into the ice matrix, and equilibration between the brine and the gas phase for volatile solutes. We find that these phenomena are important to consider when modeling brines in environmental ices, especially at low temperatures. We demonstrate its application for environmentally important volatile and nonvolatile solutes including NaCl, HCl, and HNO3. The model is compared to existing models and experimental data from literature where available. We also identify environmentally relevant regimes where brine is not predicted to exist, but the QLL may significantly impact air-ice chemical interactions. This model can be used to improve the representation of air-ice chemical interactions in polar atmospheric chemistry models.

  12. Entrepreneurial environmental management model of marketing in a political-administrative system of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadchenko Olena Vasylivna

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with proposals for entrepreneurial model of environmental management, in particular environmental marketing in modern political and administrative systems. In the context of the complexity of the social structure, forming a dense network of communications, globalization, cultural and economic-ecological space offers new mechanisms for the relationship between the state and civil society in environmental management.

  13. A resource oriented webs service for environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferencik, Ioan

    2013-04-01

    Environmental modeling is a largely adopted practice in the study of natural phenomena. Environmental models can be difficult to build and use and thus sharing them within the community is an important aspect. The most common approach to share a model is to expose it as a web service. In practice the interaction with this web service is cumbersome due to lack of standardized contract and the complexity of the model being exposed. In this work we investigate the use of a resource oriented approach in exposing environmental models as web services. We view a model as a layered resource build atop the object concept from Object Oriented Programming, augmented with persistence capabilities provided by an embedded object database to keep track of its state and implementing the four basic principles of resource oriented architectures: addressability, statelessness, representation and uniform interface. For implementation we use exclusively open source software: Django framework, dyBase object oriented database and Python programming language. We developed a generic framework of resources structured into a hierarchy of types and consequently extended this typology with recurses specific to the domain of environmental modeling. To test our web service we used cURL, a robust command-line based web client.

  14. Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

  15. Environmental Restoration Strategic Plan. Remediating the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    With the end of the cold war, the US has a reduced need for nuclear weapons production. In response, the Department of Energy has redirected resources from weapons production to weapons dismantlement and environmental remediation. To this end, in November 1989, the US Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (renamed the Office of Environmental Management in 1994). It was created to bring under a central authority the management of radioactive and hazardous wastes at DOE sites and inactive or shut down facilities. The Environmental Restoration Program, a major component of DOE's Environmental Management Program, is responsible for the remediation and management of contaminated environmental media (e.g., soil, groundwater, sediments) and the decommissioning of facilities and structures at 130 sites in over 30 states and territories

  16. Complex agent networks: An emerging approach for modeling complex systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mei, S.; Zarrabi, N.; Lees, M.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Complexity and complex systems are all around us: from molecular and cellular systems in biology up to economics and human societies. There is an urgent need for methods that can capture the multi-scale spatio-temporal characteristics of complex systems. Recent emphasis has centered on two methods

  17. EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    with different kinds of material flows, such as sludge, wastewater, biomass for energy production and treatment of contaminated soil. The primary aim of EASETECH is to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of complex systems handling heterogeneous material flows. The main novelties of the model compared to other......EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...... LCA software are as follows. The focus is put on material flow modelling. This means that each material flow is characterized as a mix of material fractions with different properties. Flows in terms of mass and composition are computed throughout the integrated system including rejects, slags, ashes...

  18. Human driven transitions in complex model ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harfoot, Mike; Newbold, Tim; Tittinsor, Derek; Purves, Drew

    2015-04-01

    Human activities have been observed to be impacting ecosystems across the globe, leading to reduced ecosystem functioning, altered trophic and biomass structure and ultimately ecosystem collapse. Previous attempts to understand global human impacts on ecosystems have usually relied on statistical models, which do not explicitly model the processes underlying the functioning of ecosystems, represent only a small proportion of organisms and do not adequately capture complex non-linear and dynamic responses of ecosystems to perturbations. We use a mechanistic ecosystem model (1), which simulates the underlying processes structuring ecosystems and can thus capture complex and dynamic interactions, to investigate boundaries of complex ecosystems to human perturbation. We explore several drivers including human appropriation of net primary production and harvesting of animal biomass. We also present an analysis of the key interactions between biotic, societal and abiotic earth system components, considering why and how we might think about these couplings. References: M. B. J. Harfoot et al., Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model., PLoS Biol. 12, e1001841 (2014).

  19. Conceptual Modelling of Complex Production Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Perši

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Complex system dynamics, structure and behaviour performances call for a wide range of methods, algorithms and tools to reach a model capable of finding optimal performing parameters. In the modelling process, it is up to the analyst to select the appropriate combination of methods, algorithms and tools to express significant system performances. Such a methodology for designing complex systems should be based upon conceptual modelling to perform a sensitive analysis of different system levels and views, allowing system representations for developing computer models.Complex systems, such as business systems with a continuous-discrete production process, require a well organised supply chain highly reactive to production assortment changes. Aligning two different production components distinctive in their behaviour is especially delicate at the production parameters transition point. Such system performances require distinctive designing methods that can follow the double nature of the production process behaviour in accordance with their entities dynamics caused by assortment changes. Consequently, such systems need different conceptual presentations for their purpose to be realized from different views and aspects.

  20. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  1. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-04-03

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  2. Reduced complexity modeling of Arctic delta dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piliouras, A.; Lauzon, R.; Rowland, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    How water and sediment are routed through deltas has important implications for our understanding of nutrient and sediment fluxes to the coastal ocean. These fluxes may be especially important in Arctic environments, because the Arctic ocean receives a disproportionately large amount of river discharge and high latitude regions are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The Arctic has some of the world's largest but least studied deltas. This lack of data is due to remote and hazardous conditions, sparse human populations, and limited remote sensing resources. In the absence of data, complex models may be of limited scientific utility in understanding Arctic delta dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we adapt the reduced complexity delta-building model DeltaRCM for Arctic environments to explore the influence of sea ice and permafrost on delta morphology and dynamics. We represent permafrost by increasing the threshold for sediment erosion, as permafrost has been found to increase cohesion and reduce channel migration rates. The presence of permafrost in the model results in the creation of more elongate channels, fewer active channels, and a rougher shoreline. We consider several effects of sea ice, including introducing friction which increases flow resistance, constriction of flow by landfast ice, and changes in effective water surface elevation. Flow constriction and increased friction from ice results in a rougher shoreline, more frequent channel switching, decreased channel migration rates, and enhanced deposition offshore of channel mouths. The reduced complexity nature of the model is ideal for generating a basic understanding of which processes unique to Arctic environments may have important effects on delta evolution, and it allows us to explore a variety of rules for incorporating those processes into the model to inform future Arctic delta modelling efforts. Finally, we plan to use the modeling results to determine how the presence

  3. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  4. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  5. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  6. Environmental management on the basis of Complex Regional Indicators Concept: case of the Murmansk region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, A.; Gutman, S.; Zaychenko, I.; Rytova, E.; Nijinskaya, P.

    2015-09-01

    The article presents an approach to sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation based on the complex regional indicators as a transformation of a balance scorecard method. The peculiarities of Murmansk region connected with sustainable environmental development are described. The complex regional indicators approach allows to elaborate the general concept of complex regional development taking into consideration economic and non-economic factors with the focus on environmental aspects, accumulated environmental damage in particular. General strategic chart of sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region worked out on the basis of complex regional indicators concept is composed. The key target indicators of sustainable ecological development of the Murmansk region are presented for the following strategic chart components: regional finance; society and market; industry and entrepreneurship; training, development and innovations. These charts are to be integrated with international environmental monitoring systems.

  7. FRAM Modelling Complex Socio-technical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-01-01

    There has not yet been a comprehensive method that goes behind 'human error' and beyond the failure concept, and various complicated accidents have accentuated the need for it. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) fulfils that need. This book presents a detailed and tested method that can be used to model how complex and dynamic socio-technical systems work, and understand both why things sometimes go wrong but also why they normally succeed.

  8. Stochastic modeling for environmental stress screening

    OpenAIRE

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2014-01-01

    Environmental stress screening (ESS) of manufactured items is used to reduce the occurrence of future failures that are caused by latent defects by eliminating the items with these defects. Some practical descriptions of the relevant ESS procedures can be found in the literature; however, the appropriate stochastic modeling and the corresponding thorough analysis have not been reported. In this paper we develop a stochastic model for the ESS, analyze the effect of this operation o...

  9. Modeling compliant grasps exploiting environmental constraints

    OpenAIRE

    Salvietti, Gionata; Malvezzi, Monica; Gioioso, Guido; Prattichizzo, Domenico

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we present a mathematical framework to describe the interaction between compliant hands and environmental constraints during grasping tasks. In the proposed model, we considered compliance at wrist, joint and contact level. We modeled the general case in which the hand is in contact with the object and the surrounding environment. All the other contact cases can be derived from the proposed system of equations. We performed several numerical simulation using the SynGrasp Matlab ...

  10. Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests. A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

  11. An open-source Java-based Toolbox for environmental model evaluation: The MOUSE Software Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    A consequence of environmental model complexity is that the task of understanding how environmental models work and identifying their sensitivities/uncertainties, etc. becomes progressively more difficult. Comprehensive numerical and visual evaluation tools have been developed such as the Monte Carl...

  12. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  13. Complex Constructivism: A Theoretical Model of Complexity and Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolittle, Peter E.

    2014-01-01

    Education has long been driven by its metaphors for teaching and learning. These metaphors have influenced both educational research and educational practice. Complexity and constructivism are two theories that provide functional and robust metaphors. Complexity provides a metaphor for the structure of myriad phenomena, while constructivism…

  14. Complex Simulation Model of Mobile Fading Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Marek

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the mobile communication environment the mobile channel is the main limiting obstacle to reach the best performance of wireless system. Modeling of the radio channel consists of two basic fading mechanisms - Long-term fading and Short-term fading. The contribution deals with simulation of complex mobile radio channel, which is the channel with all fading components. Simulation model is based on Clarke-Gans theoretical model for fading channel and is developed in MATLAB environment. Simulation results have shown very good coincidence with theory. This model was developed for hybrid adaptation 3G uplink simulator (described in this issue during the research project VEGA - 1/0140/03.

  15. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  16. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  17. Environmental Modeling of Storm Water Channels

    OpenAIRE

    L. Grinis

    2014-01-01

    Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly repres...

  18. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator–prey model with ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Research Article Volume 90 Issue 2 February 2018 Article ID 24 ... Predator–prey model; bifurcation patterns; environmental modulation ... We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation.

  19. Glass Durability Modeling, Activated Complex Theory (ACT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CAROL, JANTZEN

    2005-01-01

    The most important requirement for high-level waste glass acceptance for disposal in a geological repository is the chemical durability, expressed as a glass dissolution rate. During the early stages of glass dissolution in near static conditions that represent a repository disposal environment, a gel layer resembling a membrane forms on the glass surface through which ions exchange between the glass and the leachant. The hydrated gel layer exhibits acid/base properties which are manifested as the pH dependence of the thickness and nature of the gel layer. The gel layer has been found to age into either clay mineral assemblages or zeolite mineral assemblages. The formation of one phase preferentially over the other has been experimentally related to changes in the pH of the leachant and related to the relative amounts of Al +3 and Fe +3 in a glass. The formation of clay mineral assemblages on the leached glass surface layers ,lower pH and Fe +3 rich glasses, causes the dissolution rate to slow to a long-term steady state rate. The formation of zeolite mineral assemblages ,higher pH and Al +3 rich glasses, on leached glass surface layers causes the dissolution rate to increase and return to the initial high forward rate. The return to the forward dissolution rate is undesirable for long-term performance of glass in a disposal environment. An investigation into the role of glass stoichiometry, in terms of the quasi-crystalline mineral species in a glass, has shown that the chemistry and structure in the parent glass appear to control the activated surface complexes that form in the leached layers, and these mineral complexes ,some Fe +3 rich and some Al +3 rich, play a role in whether or not clays or zeolites are the dominant species formed on the leached glass surface. The chemistry and structure, in terms of Q distributions of the parent glass, are well represented by the atomic ratios of the glass forming components. Thus, glass dissolution modeling using simple

  20. Multimodal cues improve prey localization under complex environmental conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rhebergen, F.; Taylor, R.C.; Ryan, M.J.; Page, R.A.; Halfwerk, W.H.

    2015-01-01

    Predators often eavesdrop on sexual displays of their prey. These displays can provide multimodal cues that aid predators, but the benefits in attending to them should depend on the environmental sensory conditions under which they forage. We assessed whether bats hunting for frogs use multimodal

  1. 17 The Complexity of Environmental Protection in Sub-Saharan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    `123456789jkl''''#

    esearch identifies poverty as the main cause and consequence of man-made environmental degradation in. Africa. Poverty is multidimensional and goes beyond the lack of an income to include, as stated by the United Nations Development programme (UNDP) “the denial of opportunities and choices most basic to human.

  2. Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gifford, F.A.

    1976-01-01

    Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation

  3. Uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-11-01

    A description is given of the capabilities of several models to predict accurately either pollutant concentrations in environmental media or radiological dose to human organs. The models are discussed in three sections: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations. This procedure is infeasible for food chain models and, therefore, the uncertainty embodied in the models input parameters, rather than the model output, is estimated. Aquatic transport models are divided into one-dimensional, longitudinal-vertical, and longitudinal-horizontal models. Several conclusions were made about the ability of the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model to predict accurately downwind air concentrations from releases under several sets of conditions. It is concluded that no validation study has been conducted to test the predictions of either aquatic or terrestrial food chain models. Using the aquatic pathway from water to fish to an adult for 137 Cs as an example, a 95% one-tailed confidence limit interval for the predicted exposure is calculated by examining the distributions of the input parameters. Such an interval is found to be 16 times the value of the median exposure. A similar one-tailed limit for the air-grass-cow-milk-thyroid for 131 I and infants was 5.6 times the median dose. Of the three model types discussed in this report,the aquatic transport models appear to do the best job of predicting observed concentrations. However, this conclusion is based on many fewer aquatic validation data than were availaable for atmospheric model validation

  4. Modelling complex networks by random hierarchical graphs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Wróbel

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Numerous complex networks contain special patterns, called network motifs. These are specific subgraphs, which occur oftener than in randomized networks of Erdős-Rényi type. We choose one of them, the triangle, and build a family of random hierarchical graphs, being Sierpiński gasket-based graphs with random "decorations". We calculate the important characteristics of these graphs - average degree, average shortest path length, small-world graph family characteristics. They depend on probability of decorations. We analyze the Ising model on our graphs and describe its critical properties using a renormalization-group technique.

  5. Chaos from simple models to complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Cencini, Massimo; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2010-01-01

    Chaos: from simple models to complex systems aims to guide science and engineering students through chaos and nonlinear dynamics from classical examples to the most recent fields of research. The first part, intended for undergraduate and graduate students, is a gentle and self-contained introduction to the concepts and main tools for the characterization of deterministic chaotic systems, with emphasis to statistical approaches. The second part can be used as a reference by researchers as it focuses on more advanced topics including the characterization of chaos with tools of information theor

  6. A systematic approach to analyzing environmental issues involving complex systems (a web-based course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marston Johnston

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The course “Conceptual Modeling for Decision Support” (Univ. Gothenburg, Sweden is a web-based course, given the first time in October 2015. This introduction and other supporting documents on the website intend to provide a background for independent work with the five tutorials that comprise the core of this course. The openly accessible website will allow study at any time, but can ideally be combined with the blended-learning course in “Environmental Geology” or with project work at various institutes in the relevant cooperation networks. The introduction below develops both the philosophical and the practical framework for modeling environmental systems. Differences in scale, time and the complexity are necessary to consider when evaluating the parameters within the system, but modeling is also an attempt to simplify in order to understand the net effects of the combined components. Multi-criteria evaluation allows predictive modelling by combining the typically qualitative and quantitative information from multidisciplinary sources.  The course structure and tutorials are briefly presented.

  7. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  8. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  9. Extension of association models to complex chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Ane Søgaard

    ; CPA and sPC-SAFT. Phase equilibrium and monomer fraction calculations with sPC-SAFT for methanol are used in the thesis to illustrate the importance of parameter estimation when using SAFT. Different parameter sets give similar pure component vapor pressure and liquid density results, whereas very......Summary of “Extension of association models to complex chemicals”. Ph.D. thesis by Ane Søgaard Avlund The subject of this thesis is application of SAFT type equations of state (EoS). Accurate and predictive thermodynamic models are important in many industries including the petroleum industry...... not account for steric self-hindrance for tree-like structures. An important practical problem is how to obtain optimal and consistent parameters. Moreover, multifunctional associating molecules represent a special challenge. In this work two equations of state using the SAFT theory for association are used...

  10. Complex singlet extension of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barger, V.; Langacker, P.; McCaskey, M.; Ramsey-Musolf, M.; Shaughnessy, G.

    2009-01-01

    We analyze a simple extension of the standard model (SM) obtained by adding a complex singlet to the scalar sector (cxSM). We show that the cxSM can contain one or two viable cold dark matter candidates and analyze the conditions on the parameters of the scalar potential that yield the observed relic density. When the cxSM potential contains a global U(1) symmetry that is both softly and spontaneously broken, it contains both a viable dark matter candidate and the ingredients necessary for a strong first order electroweak phase transition as needed for electroweak baryogenesis. We also study the implications of the model for discovery of a Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider

  11. The Complexity of Environmental Protection in Sub-Saharan Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The principal purpose of this article is to draw attention to the growing threat to human health and the environment posed by the increased generation of and the complex problems attending hazardous wastes in sub-Saharan Africa, and the need to protect this region. This subject is vitally linked to the need to reduce ...

  12. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  13. Hydra, a model system for environmental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Brian; Gagné, François; Blaise, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Hydra have been extensively used for studying the teratogenic and toxic potential of numerous toxins throughout the years and are more recently growing in popularity to assess the impacts of environmental pollutants. Hydra are an appropriate bioindicator species for use in environmental assessment owing to their easily measurable physical (morphology), biochemical (xenobiotic biotransformation; oxidative stress), behavioural (feeding) and reproductive (sexual and asexual) endpoints. Hydra also possess an unparalleled ability to regenerate, allowing the assessment of teratogenic compounds and the impact of contaminants on stem cells. Importantly, Hydra are ubiquitous throughout freshwater environments and relatively easy to culture making them appropriate for use in small scale bioassay systems. Hydra have been used to assess the environmental impacts of numerous environmental pollutants including metals, organic toxicants (including pharmaceuticals and endocrine disrupting compounds), nanomaterials and industrial and municipal effluents. They have been found to be among the most sensitive animals tested for metals and certain effluents, comparing favourably with more standardised toxicity tests. Despite their lack of use in formalised monitoring programmes, Hydra have been extensively used and are regarded as a model organism in aquatic toxicology.

  14. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  15. Crops Models for Varying Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry; Cavazzoni, James; Keas, Paul

    2001-01-01

    New variable environment Modified Energy Cascade (MEC) crop models were developed for all the Advanced Life Support (ALS) candidate crops and implemented in SIMULINK. The MEC models are based on the Volk, Bugbee, and Wheeler Energy Cascade (EC) model and are derived from more recent Top-Level Energy Cascade (TLEC) models. The MEC models simulate crop plant responses to day-to-day changes in photosynthetic photon flux, photoperiod, carbon dioxide level, temperature, and relative humidity. The original EC model allows changes in light energy but uses a less accurate linear approximation. The simulation outputs of the new MEC models for constant nominal environmental conditions are very similar to those of earlier EC models that use parameters produced by the TLEC models. There are a few differences. The new MEC models allow setting the time for seed emergence, have realistic exponential canopy growth, and have corrected harvest dates for potato and tomato. The new MEC models indicate that the maximum edible biomass per meter squared per day is produced at the maximum allowed carbon dioxide level, the nominal temperatures, and the maximum light input. Reducing the carbon dioxide level from the maximum to the minimum allowed in the model reduces crop production significantly. Increasing temperature decreases production more than it decreases the time to harvest, so productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greater at nominal than maximum temperatures, The productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greatest at the maximum light energy input allowed in the model, but the edible biomass produced per light energy input unit is lower than at nominal light levels. Reducing light levels increases light and power use efficiency. The MEC models suggest we can adjust the light energy day-to- day to accommodate power shortages or Lise excess power while monitoring and controlling edible biomass production.

  16. Knowledge-Based Environmental Context Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.; Challou, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    As we move from the oil-age to an energy infrastructure based on renewables, the need arises for new educational tools to support the analysis of geophysical phenomena and their behavior and properties. Our objective is to present models of these phenomena to make them amenable for incorporation into more comprehensive analysis contexts. Starting at the level of a college-level computer science course, the intent is to keep the models tractable and therefore practical for student use. Based on research performed via an open-source investigation managed by DARPA and funded by the Department of Interior [1], we have adapted a variety of physics-based environmental models for a computer-science curriculum. The original research described a semantic web architecture based on patterns and logical archetypal building-blocks (see figure) well suited for a comprehensive environmental modeling framework. The patterns span a range of features that cover specific land, atmospheric and aquatic domains intended for engineering modeling within a virtual environment. The modeling engine contained within the server relied on knowledge-based inferencing capable of supporting formal terminology (through NASA JPL's Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Technology (SWEET) ontology and a domain-specific language) and levels of abstraction via integrated reasoning modules. One of the key goals of the research was to simplify models that were ordinarily computationally intensive to keep them lightweight enough for interactive or virtual environment contexts. The breadth of the elements incorporated is well-suited for learning as the trend toward ontologies and applying semantic information is vital for advancing an open knowledge infrastructure. As examples of modeling, we have covered such geophysics topics as fossil-fuel depletion, wind statistics, tidal analysis, and terrain modeling, among others. Techniques from the world of computer science will be necessary to promote efficient

  17. Mathematical and Numerical Techniques in Energy and Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Z.; Ewing, R. E.

    Mathematical models have been widely used to predict, understand, and optimize many complex physical processes, from semiconductor or pharmaceutical design to large-scale applications such as global weather models to astrophysics. In particular, simulation of environmental effects of air pollution is extensive. Here we address the need for using similar models to understand the fate and transport of groundwater contaminants and to design in situ remediation strategies. Three basic problem areas need to be addressed in the modeling and simulation of the flow of groundwater contamination. First, one obtains an effective model to describe the complex fluid/fluid and fluid/rock interactions that control the transport of contaminants in groundwater. This includes the problem of obtaining accurate reservoir descriptions at various length scales and modeling the effects of this heterogeneity in the reservoir simulators. Next, one develops accurate discretization techniques that retain the important physical properties of the continuous models. Finally, one develops efficient numerical solution algorithms that utilize the potential of the emerging computing architectures. We will discuss recent advances and describe the contribution of each of the papers in this book in these three areas. Keywords: reservoir simulation, mathematical models, partial differential equations, numerical algorithms

  18. Environmental study of the waters of Mandovi - Zuari estuarine complex, Goa

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Singbal, S.Y.S.

    variations of some environmental parameters at different stations at surface and bottom waters of complex were studied during 1972-73, 1975 and 1977-78. In general, weak thermal stratification is developed at some stations during monsoon and post...

  19. Framing participation with multicriterion evaluations to support the management of complex environmental issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soma, K.

    2010-01-01

    A repeated statement observed in the literature is that stakeholder participation can contribute to improve complex environmental management decisions. However, transparent and legitimate decision-making processes cannot be ensured without suitable involvement strategies and information treatments

  20. The Model of Complex Structure of Quark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rongwu

    2017-09-01

    In Quantum Chromodynamics, quark is known as a kind of point-like fundamental particle which carries mass, charge, color, and flavor, strong interaction takes place between quarks by means of exchanging intermediate particles-gluons. An important consequence of this theory is that, strong interaction is a kind of short-range force, and it has the features of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement''. In order to reveal the nature of strong interaction, the ``bag'' model of vacuum and the ``string'' model of string theory were proposed in the context of quantum mechanics, but neither of them can provide a clear interaction mechanism. This article formulates a new mechanism by proposing a model of complex structure of quark, it can be outlined as follows: (1) Quark (as well as electron, etc) is a kind of complex structure, it is composed of fundamental particle (fundamental matter mass and electricity) and fundamental volume field (fundamental matter flavor and color) which exists in the form of limited volume; fundamental particle lies in the center of fundamental volume field, forms the ``nucleus'' of quark. (2) As static electric force, the color field force between quarks has classical form, it is proportional to the square of the color quantity carried by each color field, and inversely proportional to the area of cross section of overlapping color fields which is along force direction, it has the properties of overlap, saturation, non-central, and constant. (3) Any volume field undergoes deformation when interacting with other volume field, the deformation force follows Hooke's law. (4) The phenomena of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement'' are the result of color field force and deformation force.

  1. Ants (Formicidae): models for social complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Chris R; Dolezal, Adam; Eliyahu, Dorit; Holbrook, C Tate; Gadau, Jürgen

    2009-07-01

    The family Formicidae (ants) is composed of more than 12,000 described species that vary greatly in size, morphology, behavior, life history, ecology, and social organization. Ants occur in most terrestrial habitats and are the dominant animals in many of them. They have been used as models to address fundamental questions in ecology, evolution, behavior, and development. The literature on ants is extensive, and the natural history of many species is known in detail. Phylogenetic relationships for the family, as well as within many subfamilies, are known, enabling comparative studies. Their ease of sampling and ecological variation makes them attractive for studying populations and questions relating to communities. Their sociality and variation in social organization have contributed greatly to an understanding of complex systems, division of labor, and chemical communication. Ants occur in colonies composed of tens to millions of individuals that vary greatly in morphology, physiology, and behavior; this variation has been used to address proximate and ultimate mechanisms generating phenotypic plasticity. Relatedness asymmetries within colonies have been fundamental to the formulation and empirical testing of kin and group selection theories. Genomic resources have been developed for some species, and a whole-genome sequence for several species is likely to follow in the near future; comparative genomics in ants should provide new insights into the evolution of complexity and sociogenomics. Future studies using ants should help establish a more comprehensive understanding of social life, from molecules to colonies.

  2. Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan

    2007-01-01

    Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the

  3. Clinical Complexity in Medicine: A Measurement Model of Task and Patient Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, R; Weir, C; Del Fiol, G

    2016-01-01

    Complexity in medicine needs to be reduced to simple components in a way that is comprehensible to researchers and clinicians. Few studies in the current literature propose a measurement model that addresses both task and patient complexity in medicine. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to understand and measure clinical complexity by incorporating both task and patient complexity components focusing on the infectious disease domain. The measurement model was adapted and modified for the healthcare domain. Three clinical infectious disease teams were observed, audio-recorded and transcribed. Each team included an infectious diseases expert, one infectious diseases fellow, one physician assistant and one pharmacy resident fellow. The transcripts were parsed and the authors independently coded complexity attributes. This baseline measurement model of clinical complexity was modified in an initial set of coding processes and further validated in a consensus-based iterative process that included several meetings and email discussions by three clinical experts from diverse backgrounds from the Department of Biomedical Informatics at the University of Utah. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen's kappa. The proposed clinical complexity model consists of two separate components. The first is a clinical task complexity model with 13 clinical complexity-contributing factors and 7 dimensions. The second is the patient complexity model with 11 complexity-contributing factors and 5 dimensions. The measurement model for complexity encompassing both task and patient complexity will be a valuable resource for future researchers and industry to measure and understand complexity in healthcare.

  4. Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; McCafferty, Anne E.; Clark, Roger N.

    2016-02-08

    IntroductionThis circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond.In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some

  5. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Gour T.; Gwo, Jin Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D.; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steven B.

    2013-01-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  6. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  7. S-World: a Global Soil Map for Environmental Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stoorvogel, J.J.; Bakkenes, Michel; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Batjes, N.H.; Brink, Ten Ben

    2017-01-01

    The research community increasingly analyses global environmental problems like climate change and desertification with models. These global environmental modelling studies require global, high resolution, spatially exhaustive, and quantitative data describing the soil profile. This study aimed to

  8. Modeling the Structure and Complexity of Engineering Routine Design Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Wits, Wessel Willems; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a model to structure routine design problems as well as a model of its design complexity. The idea is that having a proper model of the structure of such problems enables understanding its complexity, and likewise, a proper understanding of its complexity enables the development

  9. Predicted distribution of major malaria vectors belonging to the Anopheles dirus complex in Asia: ecological niche and environmental influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obsomer, Valerie; Defourny, Pierre; Coosemans, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Methods derived from ecological niche modeling allow to define species distribution based on presence-only data. This is particularly useful to develop models from literature records such as available for the Anopheles dirus complex, a major group of malaria mosquito vectors in Asia. This research defines an innovative modeling design based on presence-only model and hierarchical framework to define the distribution of the complex and attempt to delineate sibling species distribution and environmental preferences. At coarse resolution, the potential distribution was defined using slow changing abiotic factors such as topography and climate representative for the timescale covered by literature records of the species. The distribution area was then refined in a second step using a mask of current suitable land cover. Distribution area and ecological niche were compared between species and environmental factors tested for relevance. Alternatively, extreme values at occurrence points were used to delimit environmental envelopes. The spatial distribution for the complex was broadly consistent with its known distribution and influencing factors included temperature and rainfall. If maps developed from environmental envelopes gave similar results to modeling when the number of sites was high, the results were less similar for species with low number of recorded presences. Using presence-only models and hierarchical framework this study not only predicts the distribution of a major malaria vector, but also improved ecological modeling analysis design and proposed final products better adapted to malaria control decision makers. The resulting maps can help prioritizing areas which need further investigation and help simulate distribution under changing conditions such as climate change or reforestation. The hierarchical framework results in two products one abiotic based model describes the potential maximal distribution and remains valid for decades and the other

  10. Predicted distribution of major malaria vectors belonging to the Anopheles dirus complex in Asia: ecological niche and environmental influences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Obsomer

    Full Text Available Methods derived from ecological niche modeling allow to define species distribution based on presence-only data. This is particularly useful to develop models from literature records such as available for the Anopheles dirus complex, a major group of malaria mosquito vectors in Asia. This research defines an innovative modeling design based on presence-only model and hierarchical framework to define the distribution of the complex and attempt to delineate sibling species distribution and environmental preferences. At coarse resolution, the potential distribution was defined using slow changing abiotic factors such as topography and climate representative for the timescale covered by literature records of the species. The distribution area was then refined in a second step using a mask of current suitable land cover. Distribution area and ecological niche were compared between species and environmental factors tested for relevance. Alternatively, extreme values at occurrence points were used to delimit environmental envelopes. The spatial distribution for the complex was broadly consistent with its known distribution and influencing factors included temperature and rainfall. If maps developed from environmental envelopes gave similar results to modeling when the number of sites was high, the results were less similar for species with low number of recorded presences. Using presence-only models and hierarchical framework this study not only predicts the distribution of a major malaria vector, but also improved ecological modeling analysis design and proposed final products better adapted to malaria control decision makers. The resulting maps can help prioritizing areas which need further investigation and help simulate distribution under changing conditions such as climate change or reforestation. The hierarchical framework results in two products one abiotic based model describes the potential maximal distribution and remains valid for decades

  11. Discrete Element Modeling of Complex Granular Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Movshovitz, N.; Asphaug, E. I.

    2010-12-01

    Granular materials occur almost everywhere in nature, and are actively studied in many fields of research, from food industry to planetary science. One approach to the study of granular media, the continuum approach, attempts to find a constitutive law that determines the material's flow, or strain, under applied stress. The main difficulty with this approach is that granular systems exhibit different behavior under different conditions, behaving at times as an elastic solid (e.g. pile of sand), at times as a viscous fluid (e.g. when poured), or even as a gas (e.g. when shaken). Even if all these physics are accounted for, numerical implementation is made difficult by the wide and often discontinuous ranges in continuum density and sound speed. A different approach is Discrete Element Modeling (DEM). Here the goal is to directly model every grain in the system as a rigid body subject to various body and surface forces. The advantage of this method is that it treats all of the above regimes in the same way, and can easily deal with a system moving back and forth between regimes. But as a granular system typically contains a multitude of individual grains, the direct integration of the system can be very computationally expensive. For this reason most DEM codes are limited to spherical grains of uniform size. However, spherical grains often cannot replicate the behavior of real world granular systems. A simple pile of spherical grains, for example, relies on static friction alone to keep its shape, while in reality a pile of irregular grains can maintain a much steeper angle by interlocking force chains. In the present study we employ a commercial DEM, nVidia's PhysX Engine, originally designed for the game and animation industry, to simulate complex granular flows with irregular, non-spherical grains. This engine runs as a multi threaded process and can be GPU accelerated. We demonstrate the code's ability to physically model granular materials in the three regimes

  12. Assessment of complex environmental health problems: framing the structures and structuring the frameworks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knol, Anne B; Briggs, David J; Lebret, Erik

    2010-06-15

    Many environmental risks are multi-faceted and their health consequences can be far-ranging in both time and space. It can be a challenging task to develop informed policies for such risks. Integrated environmental health impact assessment aims to support policy by assessing environmental health effects in ways that take into account the complexities and uncertainties involved. For such assessment to be successful, a clear and agreed conceptual framework is needed, which defines the issue under consideration and sets out the principles on which the assessment is based. Conceptual frameworks facilitate involvement of stakeholders, support harmonized discussions, help to make assumptions explicit, and provide a framework for data analysis and interpretation. Various conceptual frameworks have been developed for different purposes, but as yet no clear taxonomy exists. We propose a three-level taxonomy of conceptual frameworks for use in environmental health impact assessment. At the first level of the taxonomy, structural frameworks show the wide context of the issues at hand. At the second level, relational frameworks describe how the assessment variables are causally related. At the third level, this causal structure is translated into an operational model, which serves as a basis for analysis. The different types of frameworks are complementary and all play a role in the assessment process. The taxonomy is illustrated using a hypothetical assessment of urban brownfield development for residential uses. We suggest that a better understanding of types of conceptual frameworks and their potential roles in the different phases of assessment will contribute to more informed assessments and policies. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoci, Angelo; Sodini, Mauro

    2009-01-01

    We analyze an overlapping generations model where agent's welfare depends on three goods: leisure, environmental quality and consumption of a private good. We assume that the production process of the private good depletes the natural resource and that the consumption of the private good alleviates the damages due to environmental deterioration. In such context, we show that individuals' reactions to environmental deterioration may lead to complex dynamics, in particular to the rise of periodic orbits and chaos.

  14. Modeling complex points up to isotopy

    OpenAIRE

    Slapar, Marko

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we examine the structure of complex points of real 4-manifolds embedded into complex 3-manifolds up to isotopy. We show that there are only two types of complex points up to isotopy and as a consequence, show that any such embedding can be deformed by isotopy to a manifold having 2-complete neighborhood basis.

  15. Fan array wind tunnel: a multifunctional, complex environmental flow manipulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Christopher; Veismann, Marcel; Gharib, Morteza

    2017-11-01

    The recent emergence of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has reshaped the aerospace testing environment. Traditional closed-loop wind tunnels are not particularly suited nor easily retrofit to take advantage of these coordinated, controls-based rotorcraft. As such, a highly configurable, novel wind tunnel aimed at addressing the unmet technical challenges associated with single or formation flight performance of autonomous drone systems is presented. The open-loop fan array wind tunnel features 1296 individually controllable DC fans arranged in a 2.88m x 2.88m array. The fan array can operate with and without a tunnel enclosure and is able to rotate between horizontal and vertical testing configurations. In addition to standard variable speed uniform flow, the fan array can generate both unsteady and shear flows. Through the aid of smaller side fan array units, vortex flows are also possible. Conceptual design, fabrication, and validation of the tunnel performance will be presented, including theoretical and computational predictions of flow speed and turbulence intensity. Validation of these parameters is accomplished through standard pitot-static and hot-wire techniques. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) of various complex flows will also be shown. This material is based upon work supported by the Center for Autonomous Systems and Technologies (CAST) at the Graduate Aerospace Laboratories of the California Institute of Technology (GALCIT).

  16. Finding Positive Feedback Loops in Environmental Models: A Mathematical Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikholeslami, R.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Dynamics of most earth and environmental systems are generally governed by interactions between several hydrological (e.g., soil moisture and precipitation), geological (e.g., and erosion), geochemical (e.g., nutrient loading), and atmospheric (e.g., temperature) processes which operate on a range of spatio-temporal scales. These interactions create numerous feedback mechanisms with complex behaviours, and their understanding and representation can vary depending on the scale in space and/or time at which the system is analyzed. One of the most crucial characteristics of such complex systems is the existence of positive feedback loops. The presence of positive feedbacks may increase complexity, accelerate change, or trigger multiple stable states in the underlying dynamical system. Furthermore, because of the inherent non-linearity, it is often very difficult to obtain a general idea of their complex dynamics. Feedback loops in environmental systems have been well recognized and qualitatively discussed. With a quantitative/mathematical view, in this presentation, we address the question of how the positive feedback loops can be identified/implemented in environmental models. We investigate the nature of different feedback mechanisms and dynamics of simple example case studies that underlie fundamental processes such as vegetation, precipitation and soil moisture. To do this, we apply the concept of "interaction graph" from mathematics which is built from the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system. The Jacobian matrix contains information on how variations of one state variable depends on variations of other variables, and thus can be used to understand the dynamical possibilities of feedback mechanisms in the underlying system. Moreover, this study highlights that there are some situations where the existence of positive feedback loops can cause multiple stable states, and thereby regime shifts in environmental systems. Systems with multiple stable states are

  17. Proceedings of the international symposium on environmental modeling and radioecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Ueda, Shinji; Kakiuchi, Hideki; Akata, Naofumi

    2007-03-01

    Environmental models using radioecological parameters are essential for predicting the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. Due to the complex behaviors of radionuclides in the environment, simplified models and parameters with ample margins are used for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities to ensure the safety of people in the surrounding area. As a consequence, radiation exposure doses from the radionuclides have generally been overestimated. Information with more precise predictions of the fate of the radionuclides in the environment and realistic radiation dose estimates are necessary for the public acceptance of nuclear facilities. Realistic dose estimates require continuous improvement of the models and their parameters as well as using state of the art modeling techniques and radioecological knowledge. The first commercial nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been built in Rokkasho, Aomori, and the Institute for Environmental Sciences was established for the purpose of assessing the effects of radionuclides released from the plant. Test runs by the plant using actual spent nuclear fuel began in March 2006. With commercial operation soon to begin, there is increasing concern regarding the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. This was a good time to hold a symposium here in Rokkasho to discuss recent progress in the field of environmental modeling and studies of the behaviors of radionuclides in the environment. The exchange of up-to-date information between modelers and experiments was an important aspect of the symposium. The symposium featured 26 oral lectures and 32 poster presentations. The 57 of the presented papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  18. Environmental Journalism and Environmental Communication Education: Identifying an Educational Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, William E.

    News coverage of the environment has been the subject of intense scrutiny for some 25 years. Content analyses have suggested that environmental coverage is plagued by omission of important information in areas of economics, health, safety, and consumer concerns. Surveys of reporters show high levels of frustration and dissatisfaction with their…

  19. Modeling competitive substitution in a polyelectrolyte complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, B.; Muthukumar, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have simulated the invasion of a polyelectrolyte complex made of a polycation chain and a polyanion chain, by another longer polyanion chain, using the coarse-grained united atom model for the chains and the Langevin dynamics methodology. Our simulations reveal many intricate details of the substitution reaction in terms of conformational changes of the chains and competition between the invading chain and the chain being displaced for the common complementary chain. We show that the invading chain is required to be sufficiently longer than the chain being displaced for effecting the substitution. Yet, having the invading chain to be longer than a certain threshold value does not reduce the substitution time much further. While most of the simulations were carried out in salt-free conditions, we show that presence of salt facilitates the substitution reaction and reduces the substitution time. Analysis of our data shows that the dominant driving force for the substitution process involving polyelectrolytes lies in the release of counterions during the substitution

  20. Does problem complexity matter for environmental policy delivery? How public authorities address problems of water governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschke, Sabrina; Newig, Jens; Völker, Jeanette; Borchardt, Dietrich

    2017-07-01

    Problem complexity is often assumed to hamper effective environmental policy delivery. However, this claim is hardly substantiated, given the dominance of qualitative small-n designs in environmental governance research. We studied 37 types of contemporary problems defined by German water governance to assess the impact of problem complexity on policy delivery through public authorities. The analysis is based on a unique data set related to these problems, encompassing both in-depth interview-based data on complexities and independent official data on policy delivery. Our findings show that complexity in fact tends to delay implementation at the stage of planning. However, different dimensions of complexity (goals, variables, dynamics, interconnections, and uncertainty) impact on the different stages of policy delivery (goal formulation, stages and degrees of implementation) in various ways. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Mathematical Modeling of Complex Biological Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Hans Peter

    2008-01-01

    To understand complex biological systems such as cells, tissues, or even the human body, it is not sufficient to identify and characterize the individual molecules in the system. It also is necessary to obtain a thorough understanding of the interaction between molecules and pathways. This is even truer for understanding complex diseases such as cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, or alcoholism. With recent technological advances enabling researchers to monitor complex cellular processes on the mole...

  2. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  3. Sandpile model for relaxation in complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vazquez, A.; Sotolongo-Costa, O.; Brouers, F.

    1997-10-01

    The relaxation in complex systems is, in general, nonexponential. After an initial rapid decay the system relaxes slowly following a long time tail. In the present paper a sandpile moderation of the relaxation in complex systems is analysed. Complexity is introduced by a process of avalanches in the Bethe lattice and a feedback mechanism which leads to slower decay with increasing time. In this way, some features of relaxation in complex systems: long time tails relaxation, aging, and fractal distribution of characteristic times, are obtained by simple computer simulations. (author)

  4. Concept of Complex Environmental Monitoring Network - Vardzia Rock Cut City Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elashvili, Mikheil; Vacheishvili, Nikoloz; Margottini, Claudio; Basilaia, Giorgi; Chkhaidze, Davit; Kvavadze, Davit; Spizzichino, Daniele; Boscagli, Franceso; Kirkitadze, Giorgi; Adikashvili, Luka; Navrozashvili, Levan

    2016-04-01

    Vardzia represents an unique cultural heritage monument - rock cut city, which unites architectural monument and Natural-Geological complex. Such monuments are particularly vulnerable and their restoration and conservation requires complex approach. It is curved in various layers of volcanic tuffs and covers several hectares of area, with chronologically different segments of construction. This monument, as many similar monuments worldwide, is subjected to slow but permanent process of destruction, expressed in following factors: surface weathering of rock, active tectonics (aseismic displacement along the active faults and earthquakes), interaction between lithologically different rock layers, existence of major cracks and associated complex block structure, surface rainwater runoff and infiltrated ground water, temperature variations, etc. During its lifetime, Vardzia was heavily damaged by Historical Earthquake of 1283 and only partly restored afterwards. The technological progress together with the increased knowledge about ongoing environmental processes, established the common understanding that the complex monitoring of the environment represents the essential component for resolving such a principal issues, as: Proper management and prevention of natural disasters; Modeling of environmental processes, their short and long term prognosis; Monitoring of macro and micro climate; Safe functioning and preservation of important constructions. Research Center of Cultural Heritage and Environment of Ilia State University in cooperation with Experts from ISPRA, with the funding from the State agency of Cultural Heritage, has developed a concept of Vardzia complex monitoring network. Concept of the network includes: monitoring local meteorological conditions (meteorological station), monitoring microclimate in caves (temperature and humidity in the air and rock), monitoring microtremors and ambient seismic noise in Vardzia (local strong motion network), monitoring

  5. Effects of environmental parameters on the chestnut gall wasp and its complex of indigenous parasitoids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonsignore, Carmelo Peter; Bernardo, Umberto

    2018-04-01

    The chestnut gall wasp (CGW), Dryocosmus kuriphilus, an invasive pest native to China, has caused severe yield and economic losses to chestnut production in Europe since its arrival in 2002. In Southern Italy, the complex of indigenous parasitoids colonizing CGW was monitored between 2013 and 2015, with the aim of estimating the composition of the indigenous parasitoid complex, its ability to control CGW populations, and the interactions of both factors with several measured environmental parameters. We compared results among three differently managed field types. Results showed an increase in the rate of parasitism both when the host population density was lower and in unmanaged chestnut stands with more natural conditions. The percentage of parasitism in galls was related to morphological traits of the galls and to higher seasonal temperatures, which reduced the parasitism intensity because CGW develops earlier under such conditions. The host-parasitoid mortality inside galls varied among sites and was associated mostly with rot fungi during wet spring and summer months. Parasitoid species richness was similar among the study sites, but the proportion of parasitoid species differed between orchards and unmanaged coppice stands. The timing of attack by parasitoids followed a species-specific successional sequence throughout the larva-to-adult life cycle of the CGW. These interactions should be considered in future research on trophic relationships and when modeling invasive scenarios for new pest species.

  6. Modelling the complex dynamics of vegetation, livestock and rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... In this paper, we present mathematical models that incorporate ideas from complex systems theory to integrate several strands of rangeland theory in a hierarchical framework. ... Keywords: catastrophe theory; complexity theory; disequilibrium; hysteresis; moving attractors

  7. Modeling Complex Chemical Systems: Problems and Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Jan

    2016-09-01

    Non-equilibrium plasmas in complex gas mixtures are at the heart of numerous contemporary technologies. They typically contain dozens to hundreds of species, involved in hundreds to thousands of reactions. Chemists and physicists have always been interested in what are now called chemical reduction techniques (CRT's). The idea of such CRT's is that they reduce the number of species that need to be considered explicitly without compromising the validity of the model. This is usually achieved on the basis of an analysis of the reaction time scales of the system under study, which identifies species that are in partial equilibrium after a given time span. The first such CRT that has been widely used in plasma physics was developed in the 1960's and resulted in the concept of effective ionization and recombination rates. It was later generalized to systems in which multiple levels are effected by transport. In recent years there has been a renewed interest in tools for chemical reduction and reaction pathway analysis. An example of the latter is the PumpKin tool. Another trend is that techniques that have previously been developed in other fields of science are adapted as to be able to handle the plasma state of matter. Examples are the Intrinsic Low Dimension Manifold (ILDM) method and its derivatives, which originate from combustion engineering, and the general-purpose Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. In this contribution we will provide an overview of the most common reduction techniques, then critically assess the pros and cons of the methods that have gained most popularity in recent years. Examples will be provided for plasmas in argon and carbon dioxide.

  8. A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

  9. Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

    1988-01-01

    Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

  10. Animal Models of Autism: An Epigenetic and Environmental Viewpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Iwata

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder of social behavior, which is more common in males than in females. The causes of autism are unknown; there is evidence for a substantial genetic component, but it is likely that a combination of genetic, environmental and epigenetic factors contribute to its complex pathogenesis. Rodent models that mimic the behavioral deficits of autism can be useful tools for dissecting both the etiology and molecular mechanisms. This review discusses animal models of autism generated by prenatal or neonatal environmental challenges, including virus infection and exposure to valproic acid (VPA or stress. Studies of viral infection models suggest that interleukin-6 can influence fetal development and programming. Prenatal exposure to the histone deacetylase inhibitor VPA has been linked to autism in children, and male VPA-exposed rats exhibit a spectrum of autistic-like behaviors. The experience of prenatal stress produces male-specific behavioral abnormalities in rats. These effects may be mediated by epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation and histone acetylation resulting in alterations to the transcriptome.

  11. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  12. Generative complexity of Gray-Scott model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamatzky, Andrew

    2018-03-01

    In the Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion system one reactant is constantly fed in the system, another reactant is reproduced by consuming the supplied reactant and also converted to an inert product. The rate of feeding one reactant in the system and the rate of removing another reactant from the system determine configurations of concentration profiles: stripes, spots, waves. We calculate the generative complexity-a morphological complexity of concentration profiles grown from a point-wise perturbation of the medium-of the Gray-Scott system for a range of the feeding and removal rates. The morphological complexity is evaluated using Shannon entropy, Simpson diversity, approximation of Lempel-Ziv complexity, and expressivity (Shannon entropy divided by space-filling). We analyse behaviour of the systems with highest values of the generative morphological complexity and show that the Gray-Scott systems expressing highest levels of the complexity are composed of the wave-fragments (similar to wave-fragments in sub-excitable media) and travelling localisations (similar to quasi-dissipative solitons and gliders in Conway's Game of Life).

  13. Model complexity and performance: how far can we simplify?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raick, C.; Soetaert, K.E.R.; Grégoire, M.

    2006-01-01

    Handling model complexity and reliability is a key area of research today. While complex models containing sufficient detail have become possible due to increased computing power, they often lead to too much uncertainty. On the other hand, very simple models often crudely oversimplify the real

  14. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  15. Web mapping system for complex processing and visualization of environmental geospatial datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor

    2016-04-01

    Environmental geospatial datasets (meteorological observations, modeling and reanalysis results, etc.) are used in numerous research applications. Due to a number of objective reasons such as inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets, big dataset volume, complexity of data models used, syntactic and semantic differences that complicate creation and use of unified terminology, the development of environmental geodata access, processing and visualization services as well as client applications turns out to be quite a sophisticated task. According to general INSPIRE requirements to data visualization geoportal web applications have to provide such standard functionality as data overview, image navigation, scrolling, scaling and graphical overlay, displaying map legends and corresponding metadata information. It should be noted that modern web mapping systems as integrated geoportal applications are developed based on the SOA and might be considered as complexes of interconnected software tools for working with geospatial data. In the report a complex web mapping system including GIS web client and corresponding OGC services for working with geospatial (NetCDF, PostGIS) dataset archive is presented. There are three basic tiers of the GIS web client in it: 1. Tier of geospatial metadata retrieved from central MySQL repository and represented in JSON format 2. Tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods handling: --- NetCDF metadata --- Task XML object for configuring user calculations, input and output formats --- OGC WMS/WFS cartographical services 3. Graphical user interface (GUI) tier representing JavaScript objects realizing web application business logic Metadata tier consists of a number of JSON objects containing technical information describing geospatial datasets (such as spatio-temporal resolution, meteorological parameters, valid processing methods, etc). The middleware tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods for handling geospatial

  16. From process complexity to communication effectiveness: A challenge to those within and outside of the environmental sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, K. E.; McGlynn, B. L.

    2014-12-01

    Interdisciplinary work has become a cornerstone in research across the environmental sciences. Our work does so by evaluating biogeochemical cycling, specifically methane, in the context of landscape hydrology. Atmospheric methane is a greenhouse gas 27 times more potent than carbon dioxide and has been increasing at an unprecedented rate. This drastic increase in atmospheric methane has been attributed to anthropogenic activities such as burning of fossil fuels, ruminants, and rice cultivation, which together constitute approximately 67% of global methane sources. Characterizing CH4 flux in natural systems has remained difficult due to complex relationships among environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and soil water content). To address this, we focus on how the redistribution of water in complex terrain influences the magnitude and direction of flux in upland and riparian soils. Distilling this complex behavior and scaling these observations is complicated by interacting feedback loops and uncertainties associated with global scale modeling. However, progress is critical given that predicting future climate is necessary to forecasting the quantity and distribution of available fresh water, and understanding how ecosystem processes, and energy/food production will be affected. Water sciences and environmental science as a whole must improve communication to a range of audiences, and advocate for researchers, policy makers, and business leaders to work together for a more sustainable future. A crucial step in this process is to optimize the appropriate level of information to convey that is both memorable and meaningful given the complexity of environmental systems. The challenge also extends to artists and filmmakers to present the subject in compelling ways that inspire audiences to take action in their own communities. True integration of professionals across environmental, social, political, and economic disciplines while motivating local involvement

  17. Dynamic modeling of environmental risk associated with drilling discharges to marine sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durgut, İsmail; Rye, Henrik; Reed, Mark; Smit, Mathijs G D; Ditlevsen, May Kristin

    2015-10-15

    Drilling discharges are complex mixtures of base-fluids, chemicals and particulates, and may, after discharge to the marine environment, result in adverse effects on benthic communities. A numerical model was developed to estimate the fate of drilling discharges in the marine environment, and associated environmental risks. Environmental risk from deposited drilling waste in marine sediments is generally caused by four types of stressors: oxygen depletion, toxicity, burial and change of grain size. In order to properly model these stressors, natural burial, biodegradation and bioturbation processes were also included. Diagenetic equations provide the basis for quantifying environmental risk. These equations are solved numerically by an implicit-central differencing scheme. The sediment model described here is, together with a fate and risk model focusing on the water column, implemented in the DREAM and OSCAR models, both available within the Marine Environmental Modeling Workbench (MEMW) at SINTEF in Trondheim, Norway. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

    OpenAIRE

    Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositio...

  19. Expert views on scientific policy advice on complex environmental health issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruijt, P.

    2016-01-01

    Fact-based policies grounded in solid uncontested scientific evidence: this may sound as the ideal relation between science and policy. However, this ideal rarely holds for complex environmental health risks. When scientific knowledge is contested or incomplete, scientists can take different roles

  20. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator–prey model with ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K P Harikrishnan

    2018-01-12

    Jan 12, 2018 ... https://doi.org/10.1007/s12043-017-1516-7. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator–prey model with periodic environmental modulation. K P HARIKRISHNAN. Department of Physics, The Cochin College, Cochin 682 002, India. E-mail: kp_hk2002@yahoo.co.in. MS received 12 December 2016; ...

  1. Modeling Electronic Properties of Complex Oxides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnaswamy, Karthik

    Complex oxides are a class of materials that have recently emerged as potential candidates for electronic applications owing to their interesting electronic properties. The goal of this dissertation is to develop a fundamental understanding of these electronic properties using a combination of first-principles approaches based on density functional theory (DFT), and Schrodinger-Poisson (SP) simulation (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.

  2. Complex systems modeling by cellular automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroc, J.; Sloot, P.M.A.; Rabuñal Dopico, J.R.; Dorado de la Calle, J.; Pazos Sierra, A.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the notion of complex systems proved to be a very useful concept to define, describe, and study various natural phenomena observed in a vast number of scientific disciplines. Examples of scientific disciplines that highly benefit from this concept range from physics, mathematics,

  3. Modelling microbial metabolic rewiring during growth in a complex medium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fondi, Marco; Bosi, Emanuele; Presta, Luana; Natoli, Diletta; Fani, Renato

    2016-11-24

    In their natural environment, bacteria face a wide range of environmental conditions that change over time and that impose continuous rearrangements at all the cellular levels (e.g. gene expression, metabolism). When facing a nutritionally rich environment, for example, microbes first use the preferred compound(s) and only later start metabolizing the other one(s). A systemic re-organization of the overall microbial metabolic network in response to a variation in the composition/concentration of the surrounding nutrients has been suggested, although the range and the entity of such modifications in organisms other than a few model microbes has been scarcely described up to now. We used multi-step constraint-based metabolic modelling to simulate the growth in a complex medium over several time steps of the Antarctic model organism Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis TAC125. As each of these phases is characterized by a specific set of amino acids to be used as carbon and energy source our modelling framework describes the major consequences of nutrients switching at the system level. The model predicts that a deep metabolic reprogramming might be required to achieve optimal biomass production in different stages of growth (different medium composition), with at least half of the cellular metabolic network involved (more than 50% of the metabolic genes). Additionally, we show that our modelling framework is able to capture metabolic functional association and/or common regulatory features of the genes embedded in our reconstruction (e.g. the presence of common regulatory motifs). Finally, to explore the possibility of a sub-optimal biomass objective function (i.e. that cells use resources in alternative metabolic processes at the expense of optimal growth) we have implemented a MOMA-based approach (called nutritional-MOMA) and compared the outcomes with those obtained with Flux Balance Analysis (FBA). Growth simulations under this scenario revealed the deep impact of

  4. Modelling radiation fluxes in simple and complex environments--application of the RayMan model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matzarakis, Andreas; Rutz, Frank; Mayer, Helmut

    2007-03-01

    The most important meteorological parameter affecting the human energy balance during sunny weather conditions is the mean radiant temperature T(mrt). It considers the uniform temperature of a surrounding surface giving off blackbody radiation, which results in the same energy gain of a human body given the prevailing radiation fluxes. This energy gain usually varies considerably in open space conditions. In this paper, the model 'RayMan', used for the calculation of short- and long-wave radiation fluxes on the human body, is presented. The model, which takes complex urban structures into account, is suitable for several applications in urban areas such as urban planning and street design. The final output of the model is, however, the calculated T(mrt), which is required in the human energy balance model, and thus also for the assessment of the urban bioclimate, with the use of thermal indices such as predicted mean vote (PMV), physiologically equivalent temperature (PET) and standard effective temperature (SET*). The model has been developed based on the German VDI-Guidelines 3789, Part II (environmental meteorology, interactions between atmosphere and surfaces; calculation of short- and long-wave radiation) and VDI-3787 (environmental meteorology, methods for the human-biometeorological evaluation of climate and air quality for urban and regional planning. Part I: climate). The validation of the results of the RayMan model agrees with similar results obtained from experimental studies.

  5. The utility of Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.

    2010-01-01

    Intermediate-complexity models are models which describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and/or ocean in less detail than conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs). At the same time, they go beyond the approach taken by atmospheric Energy Balance Models (EBMs) or ocean box models by

  6. Turbulence modeling for complex hypersonic flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. G.; Coakley, T. J.

    1993-01-01

    The paper presents results of calculations for a range of 2D turbulent hypersonic flows using two-equation models. The baseline models and the model corrections required for good hypersonic-flow predictions will be illustrated. Three experimental data sets were chosen for comparison. They are: (1) the hypersonic flare flows of Kussoy and Horstman, (2) a 2D hypersonic compression corner flow of Coleman and Stollery, and (3) the ogive-cylinder impinging shock-expansion flows of Kussoy and Horstman. Comparisons with the experimental data have shown that baseline models under-predict the extent of flow separation but over-predict the heat transfer rate near flow reattachment. Modifications to the models are described which remove the above-mentioned deficiencies. Although we have restricted the discussion only to the selected baseline models in this paper, the modifications proposed are universal and can in principle be transferred to any existing two-equation model formulation.

  7. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  8. The Impact of Environmental Complexity and Team Training on Team Processes and Performance in Multi-Team Environments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cobb, Marshall

    1999-01-01

    This study examined how manipulating the level of environmental complexity and the type of team training given to subject volunteers impacted important team process behaviors and performance outcomes...

  9. The Cognitive Complexity in Modelling the Group Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barna Iantovics

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates for some basic contextual factors (such
    us the problem complexity, the users' creativity and the problem space complexity the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the group decision processes (GDP in e-meetings. The analysis is done by conducting a socio-simulation experiment for an envisioned collaborative software tool that acts as a stigmergic environment for modelling the GDP. The simulation results revels some interesting design guidelines for engineering some contextual functionalities that minimize the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the GDP.

  10. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  11. Effects of presentation duration on measures of complexity in affective environmental scenes and representational paintings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, Manuela M; Leder, Helmut

    2016-01-01

    Complexity constitutes an integral part of humans' environment and is inherent to information processing. However, little is known about the dynamics of visual complexity perception of affective environmental scenes (IAPS pictures) and artworks, such as affective representational paintings. In three experiments, we studied the time course of visual complexity perception by varying presentation duration and comparing subjective ratings with objective measures of complexity. In Experiment 1, 60 females rated 96 IAPS pictures, presented either for 1, 5, or 25s, for familiarity, complexity, pleasantness and arousal. In Experiment 2, another 60 females rated 96 representational paintings. Mean ratings of complexity and pleasantness changed according to presentation duration in a similar vein in both experiments, suggesting an inverted U-shape. No common pattern of results was observed for arousal and familiarity ratings across the two picture sets. The correlations between subjective and objective measures of complexity increased with longer exposure durations for IAPS pictures, but results were more ambiguous for paintings. Experiment 3 explored the time course of the multidimensionality of visual complexity perception. Another 109 females rated the number of objects, their disorganization and the differentiation between a figure-ground vs. complex scene composition of pictures presented for 1 and 5s. The multidimensionality of visual complexity only clearly emerged in the 5-s condition. In both picture sets, the strength of the correlations with objective measures depended on the type of subdimension of complexity and was less affected by presentation duration than correlations with general complexity in Experiments 1 and 2. These results have clear implications for perceptual and cognitive theories, especially for those of esthetic experiences, in which the dynamical changes of complexity perception need to be integrated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights

  12. What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merow, Cory; Smith, Matthew J.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Guisan, Antoine; McMahon, Sean M.; Normand, Signe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wuest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Elith, Jane

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence–environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence–environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building ‘under fit’ models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence–environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building ‘over fit’ models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species

  13. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center--providing comprehensive earth science for complex societal issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, David G.; Wallace, Alan R.; Schneider, Jill L.

    2010-01-01

    Minerals in the environment and products manufactured from mineral materials are all around us and we use and come into contact with them every day. They impact our way of life and the health of all that lives. Minerals are critical to the Nation's economy and knowing where future mineral resources will come from is important for sustaining the Nation's economy and national security. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP) provides scientific information for objective resource assessments and unbiased research results on mineral resource potential, production and consumption statistics, as well as environmental consequences of mining. The MRP conducts this research to provide information needed for land planners and decisionmakers about where mineral commodities are known and suspected in the earth's crust and about the environmental consequences of extracting those commodities. As part of the MRP scientists of the Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center (WMERSC or 'Center' herein) coordinate the development of national, geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-resource databases and the migration of existing databases to standard models and formats that are available to both internal and external users. The unique expertise developed by Center scientists over many decades in response to mineral-resource-related issues is now in great demand to support applications such as public health research and remediation of environmental hazards that result from mining and mining-related activities. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center Results of WMERSC research provide timely and unbiased analyses of minerals and inorganic materials to (1) improve stewardship of public lands and resources; (2) support national and international economic and security policies; (3) sustain prosperity and improve our quality of life; and (4) protect and improve public health, safety, and environmental quality. The MRP

  14. Uncertainty and Complexity in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Susan O.; Sanders, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Modeling is an effective tool to help students access mathematical concepts. Finding a math teacher who has not drawn a fraction bar or pie chart on the board would be difficult, as would finding students who have not been asked to draw models and represent numbers in different ways. In this article, the authors will discuss: (1) the properties of…

  15. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...

  16. Geo-inspired model: Agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental management (AVNG of water tributaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Eduardo Millán Rojas

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Context: Management to care for the environment and the Earth (geo can be source of inspiration for developing models that allow addressing complexity issues; the objective of this research was to develop an additional aspect of the inspired models. The geoinspired model has two features, the first covering aspects related to environmental management and the behavior of natural resources, and the second has a component of spatial location associated with existing objects on the Earth's surface. Method: The approach developed in the research is descriptive and its main objective is the representation or characterization of a case study within a particular context. Results: The result was the design of a model to emulate the natural behavior of the water tributaries of the Amazon foothills, in order to extend the application of the inspired models and allow the use of elements such as geo-referencing and environmental management. The proposed geoinspired model is called “natural vectors agents inspired in environmental management”. Conclusions: The agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental are polyform elements that can assume the behavior of environmental entities, which makes it possible to achieve progress in other fields of environmental management (use of soil, climate, flora, fauna, and link environmental issues with the structure of the proposed model.

  17. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  18. Modelling consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, X.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a theoretical Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model that explicitly includes the environmental input in production functions and the consumers' preferences for environmental quality in utility functions. We empirically apply the model to provide some insights into the effects of the

  19. Mathematical modeling and optimization of complex structures

    CERN Document Server

    Repin, Sergey; Tuovinen, Tero

    2016-01-01

    This volume contains selected papers in three closely related areas: mathematical modeling in mechanics, numerical analysis, and optimization methods. The papers are based upon talks presented  on the International Conference for Mathematical Modeling and Optimization in Mechanics, held in Jyväskylä, Finland, March 6-7, 2014 dedicated to Prof. N. Banichuk on the occasion of his 70th birthday. The articles are written by well-known scientists working in computational mechanics and in optimization of complicated technical models. Also, the volume contains papers discussing the historical development, the state of the art, new ideas, and open problems arising in  modern continuum mechanics and applied optimization problems. Several papers are concerned with mathematical problems in numerical analysis, which are also closely related to important mechanical models. The main topics treated include:  * Computer simulation methods in mechanics, physics, and biology;  * Variational problems and methods; minimiz...

  20. Modelling Complex Relevance Spaces with Copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Eickhoff, Carsten; Vries, Arjen

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractModern relevance models consider a wide range of criteria in order to identify those documents that are expected to satisfy the user's information need. With growing dimensionality of the underlying relevance spaces the need for sophisticated score combination and estimation schemes arises. In this paper, we investigate the use of copulas, a model family from the domain of robust statistics, for the formal estimation of the probability of relevance in high-dimensional spaces. Our ...

  1. A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

    2018-01-01

    We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  2. A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Dermody

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  3. Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2016-06-18

    Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling.

  4. Environmental surveillance for the INEL radioactive waste management complex. Annual report, 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.; Janke, D.H.

    1980-12-01

    This document is the 1979 annual environmental surveillance report for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included are tabulated data from and discussions about routine radiological monitoring of atmospheric, hydrologic, geologic, and biotic environments of the RWMC. Also included are discussions of selected nonradiological pollutants (e.g., sodium, etc.). It is concluded that (a) RWMC operations have not adversely affected local, existing environments; (b) environmental conditions within the Transuranic Storage Area are not corrosive enough to adversely affect transuranic waste storage containers, and (c) the addition of lakebed soil to pit, trench, and soil test plot areas has altered the moisture cycle characteristic of RWMC soil

  5. Molecular modeling of metal complexation by a fluoroquinolone antibiotic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aristilde, Ludmilla; Sposito, Garrison

    2008-11-01

    An understanding of the factors controlling the chemodynamics of fluoroquinolone antibiotics in different environmental matrices is a necessary prerequisite to the assessment of their potential impact on nontarget organisms in soils and receiving waters. Of particular interest are the complexes formed between fluoroquinolones and metal cations, which are believed to be important in the mechanism of sequestration of the antibiotic by minerals and natural organic matter. The structures of these complexes have not been fully resolved by conventional spectroscopy; therefore, molecular simulations may provide useful complementary insights. We present results from apparently the first molecular dynamics simulations of a widely used fluoroquinolone antibiotic, ciprofloxacin (Cipro), in aqueous complexes with five metal cations typically found in soils and surface waters: Ca2+, Mg2+, Fe2+, Na+, and K+. The interatomic potential functions employed in the simulations were validated by comparison with available structural data for solid-phase Cipro-hexahydrate and for the metal cations in aqueous solution. Although no comprehensive structural data on the aqueous complexes appear to be available, properties of the metal complexes predicted by our simulations agree with available data for solid-phase metal-Cipro complexes. Our results indicate that the ionic potential of the metal cation controls the stability of the complex formed and that the hydration number of the metal cation in aqueous solution determines its coordination number with O atoms in the metal-Cipro complex. In respect to environmental chemodynamics, our results imply that Cipro will form two configurations of bidendate chelates with metal centers on exposed surfaces of mineral oxides, water-bridged surface complexes with exchangeable cations in clay mineral interlayers, and cation-bridged complexes with functional groups in natural organic matter.

  6. Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Oil and Natural Gas Operations: Potential Environmental Contamination and Recommendations to Assess Complex Environmental Mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassotis, Christopher D; Tillitt, Donald E; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A; Nagel, Susan C

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. Although these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals that are used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals. We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and antihormonal activities for chemicals used. We discuss the literature on a) surface and groundwater contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and b) potential human exposure, particularly in the context of the total hormonal and antihormonal activities present in surface and groundwater from natural and anthropogenic sources; we also discuss initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps. In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures. We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide information supporting the idea that using such a component will help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

  7. Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and oil and natural gas operations: Potential environmental contamination and recommendations to assess complex environmental mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassotis, Christopher D.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A.; Nagel, Susan C.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. While these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals.Objectives: We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and anti-hormonal activities for chemicals used.Methods: We discuss the literature on 1) surface and ground water contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and 2) potential human exposure, particularly in context of the total hormonal and anti-hormonal activities present in surface and ground water from natural and anthropogenic sources, with initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps discussed.Discussion: In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures.Conclusions: We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide supporting information that using this may help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

  8. Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

    2015-01-01

    This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

  9. Modeling complex systems in the geosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-03-01

    Many geophysical phenomena can be described as complex systems, involving phenomena such as extreme or "wild" events that often do not follow the Gaussian distribution that would be expected if the events were simply random and uncorrelated. For instance, some geophysical phenomena like earthquakes show a much higher occurrence of relatively large values than would a Gaussian distribution and so are examples of the "Noah effect" (named by Benoit Mandelbrot for the exceptionally heavy rain in the biblical flood). Other geophysical phenomena are examples of the "Joseph effect," in which a state is especially persistent, such as a spell of multiple consecutive hot days (heat waves) or several dry summers in a row. The Joseph effect was named after the biblical story in which Joseph's dream of seven fat cows and seven thin ones predicted 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought.

  10. Health effects of environmental pollution in population living near industrial complex areas in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Eom

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between environmental pollution and various health conditions in individuals residing in industrial complexes. To evaluate the effects of pollution from industrial complex on human health, we performed a pooled analysis of environmental epidemiologic monitoring data for residents living near national industrial complexes in Korea. The respiratory and allergic symptoms and the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, including cancer, were used as the outcome variables for health effects. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between exposure to pollution from industrial complexes and health conditions. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, occupational exposure, level of education, and body mass index, the residents near the industrial complexes were found to have more respiratory symptoms, such as cough (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.31 and sputum production (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.24, and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20. Among residents of the industrial complexes, the prevalence of acute eye disorders was approximately 40% higher (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.84 and the prevalence of lung and uterine cancer was 3.45 times and 1.88 times higher, respectively, than those among residents of the control area. This study showed that residents living in the vicinity of industrial complexes have a high risk of acute and chronic diseases including respiratory and allergic conditions. These results can be used as basic objective data for developing health management measures for individuals residing near industrial complexes.

  11. Health effects of environmental pollution in population living near industrial complex areas in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Sang-Yong; Choi, Jonghyuk; Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Ji-Ae; Kim, Guen-Bae; Yu, Seung-Do; Kim, Yangho; Lim, Hyun-Sul; Son, Bu-Soon; Paek, Domyung; Kim, Yong-Dae; Kim, Heon; Ha, Mina; Kwon, Ho-Jang

    2018-01-01

    Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between environmental pollution and various health conditions in individuals residing in industrial complexes. To evaluate the effects of pollution from industrial complex on human health, we performed a pooled analysis of environmental epidemiologic monitoring data for residents living near national industrial complexes in Korea. The respiratory and allergic symptoms and the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, including cancer, were used as the outcome variables for health effects. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between exposure to pollution from industrial complexes and health conditions. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, occupational exposure, level of education, and body mass index, the residents near the industrial complexes were found to have more respiratory symptoms, such as cough (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.31) and sputum production (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.24), and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20). Among residents of the industrial complexes, the prevalence of acute eye disorders was approximately 40% higher (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.84) and the prevalence of lung and uterine cancer was 3.45 times and 1.88 times higher, respectively, than those among residents of the control area. This study showed that residents living in the vicinity of industrial complexes have a high risk of acute and chronic diseases including respiratory and allergic conditions. These results can be used as basic objective data for developing health management measures for individuals residing near industrial complexes.

  12. Research on System Coherence Evolution of Different Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Si-Qi; Lu, Jing-Bin; Li, Hong; Liu, Ji-Ping; Zhang, Xiao-Ru; Liu, Han; Liang, Yu; Ma, Ji; Liu, Xiao-Jing; Wu, Xiang-Yao

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we have studied the evolution curve of two-level atomic system that the initial state is excited state. At the different of environmental reservoir models, which include the single Lorentzian, ideal photon band-gap, double Lorentzian and square Lorentzian reservoir, we researched the influence of these environmental reservoir models on the evolution of energy level population. At static no modulation, comparing the four environmental models, the atomic energy level population oscillation of square Lorentzian reservoir model is fastest, and the atomic system decoherence is slowest. Under dynamic modulation, comparing the photon band-gap model with the single Lorentzian reservoir model, no matter what form of dynamic modulation, the time of atoms decay to the ground state is longer for the photonic band-gap model. These conclusions make the idea of using the environmental change to modulate the coherent evolution of atomic system become true.

  13. A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Gu

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

  14. Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

    CERN Document Server

    Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

  15. The animal sensorimotor organization: a challenge for the environmental complexity thesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keijzer, Fred; Arnellos, Argyris

    2017-01-01

    Godfrey-Smith's environmental complexity thesis (ECT) is most often applied to multicellular animals and the complexity of their macroscopic environments to explain how cognition evolved. We think that the ECT may be less suited to explain the origins of the animal bodily organization, including this organization's potentiality for dealing with complex macroscopic environments. We argue that acquiring the fundamental sensorimotor features of the animal body may be better explained as a consequence of dealing with internal bodily-rather than environmental complexity. To press and elucidate this option, we develop the notion of an animal sensorimotor organization (ASMO) that derives from an internal coordination account for the evolution of early nervous systems. The ASMO notion is a reply to the question how a collection of single cells can become integrated such that the resulting multicellular organization becomes sensitive to and can manipulate macroscopic features of both the animal body and its environment. In this account, epithelial contractile tissues play the central role in the organization behind complex animal bodies. In this paper, we relate the ASMO concept to recent work on epithelia, which provides empirical evidence that supports central assumptions behind the ASMO notion. Second, we discuss to what extent the notion applies to basic animal architectures, exemplified by sponges and jellyfish. We conclude that the features exhibited by the ASMO are plausibly explained by internal constraints acting on and within this multicellular organization, providing a challenge for the role the ECT plays in this context.

  16. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelly, Rebecca A.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; El-Sawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jorgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; van Delden, H.; Voinov, A.

    2013-01-01

    The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a

  17. Modeling Complexity : The Limits to Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Batty

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available A working definition of a complex system is of an entity which is coherent in some recognizable way but whose elements, interactions, and dynamics generate structures admitting surprise and novelty which cannot be defined a priori. Complex systems are therefore more than the sum of their parts, and a consequence of this is that any model of their structure is necessarily incomplete and partial. Models represent simplifications of a system in which salient parts and processes are simulated and given this definition, many models will exist of any particular complex system. In this paper, we explore the impact of complexity in validating models of such systems. We begin with definitions of complexity, complex systems, and models thereof. We identify the key issues as being concerned with the characterization of system equilibrium, system environment, and the way systems and their elements extend and scale. As our perspective on these issues changes, then so do our models and this has implications for their testing and validation. We develop these, introducing changes in the meaning of validity posed by the use to which such models are to be put in terms of their users. We draw these ideas together as conclusions about the limits posed to prediction in complex systems. We illustrate our arguments using various examples from the field of urban systems theory and urban science.

  18. Energy and complex industrial systems environmental emissions data reporting and acquisition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Hamilton, L.D.

    1987-07-01

    The Joint International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), UNEP and WHO Project on Assessing and Managing Health and Environmental risks from Energy and Other Complex Technologies intends to complile emissions data for mportant energy systems and other complex technologies from a wide variety of countries. To facilitate data generation and compilation, this report: outlines data reporting protocols; identifies potential information sources; demonstrates how to estimate coefficients; presents some compiled US emission coefficients or criteria air pollutants for some energy process; and, compares national air emission standards for electricity generating plants in OECD member countries. 27 refs., 2 fis., 1 tabs

  19. Modelling Complex Inlet Geometries in CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard, M.; Nielsen, Peter V.

    field. In order to apply CFD for this purpose it is essential to be able to model the inlet conditions precisely and effectively, in a way which is comprehensible to the manufacturer of inlet devices and in a way which can be coped with by the computer. In this paper a universal method is presented...

  20. Modelling Complex Relevance Spaces with Copulas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Eickhoff (Carsten); A.P. de Vries (Arjen)

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractModern relevance models consider a wide range of criteria in order to identify those documents that are expected to satisfy the user's information need. With growing dimensionality of the underlying relevance spaces the need for sophisticated score combination and estimation schemes

  1. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  2. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  3. Modeling of Aggregate Attacks on Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Galindo

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An order factor in combinations of random and targeted attacks on modern scale free network model has been explored. Protection concepts based on timely restructuring of topologies have been discussed. Vulnerability parameter defined by investment value has been introduced, and protection financing strategies depending on node connectivity has been analyzed.

  4. Modeling the assembly order of multimeric heteroprotein complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Lenna X; Togawa, Yoichiro; Esquivel-Rodriguez, Juan; Terashi, Genki; Christoffer, Charles; Roy, Amitava; Shin, Woong-Hee; Kihara, Daisuke

    2018-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions are the cornerstone of numerous biological processes. Although an increasing number of protein complex structures have been determined using experimental methods, relatively fewer studies have been performed to determine the assembly order of complexes. In addition to the insights into the molecular mechanisms of biological function provided by the structure of a complex, knowing the assembly order is important for understanding the process of complex formation. Assembly order is also practically useful for constructing subcomplexes as a step toward solving the entire complex experimentally, designing artificial protein complexes, and developing drugs that interrupt a critical step in the complex assembly. There are several experimental methods for determining the assembly order of complexes; however, these techniques are resource-intensive. Here, we present a computational method that predicts the assembly order of protein complexes by building the complex structure. The method, named Path-LzerD, uses a multimeric protein docking algorithm that assembles a protein complex structure from individual subunit structures and predicts assembly order by observing the simulated assembly process of the complex. Benchmarked on a dataset of complexes with experimental evidence of assembly order, Path-LZerD was successful in predicting the assembly pathway for the majority of the cases. Moreover, when compared with a simple approach that infers the assembly path from the buried surface area of subunits in the native complex, Path-LZerD has the strong advantage that it can be used for cases where the complex structure is not known. The path prediction accuracy decreased when starting from unbound monomers, particularly for larger complexes of five or more subunits, for which only a part of the assembly path was correctly identified. As the first method of its kind, Path-LZerD opens a new area of computational protein structure modeling and will be

  5. Modeling the assembly order of multimeric heteroprotein complexes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenna X Peterson

    2018-01-01

    modeling and will be an indispensable approach for studying protein complexes.

  6. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  7. Are complex DCE-MRI models supported by clinical data?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duan, Chong; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Bretthorst, G Larry

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To ascertain whether complex dynamic contrast enhanced (DCE) MRI tracer kinetic models are supported by data acquired in the clinic and to determine the consequences of limited contrast-to-noise. METHODS: Generically representative in silico and clinical (cervical cancer) DCE-MRI data were...... selection is particularly important when high-order, multiparametric models are under consideration. (Parameters obtained from kinetic modeling of cervical cancer clinical DCE-MRI data showed significant changes at an early stage of radiotherapy.)...... examined. Bayesian model selection evaluated support for four compartmental DCE-MRI models: the Tofts model (TM), Extended Tofts model, Compartmental Tissue Uptake model (CTUM), and Two-Compartment Exchange model. RESULTS: Complex DCE-MRI models were more sensitive to noise than simpler models with respect...

  8. Chaos in Computing the Environmental Interface Temperature: Nonlinear Dynamic and Complexity Analysis of Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mimić, Gordan; Mihailović, Dragutin T.; Budinčević, Mirko

    2013-10-01

    In this paper, we consider an environmental interface as a complex system, in which difference equations for calculating the environmental interface temperature and deeper soil layer temperature are represented by the coupled maps. First equation has its background in the energy balance equation while the second one in the prognostic equation for deeper soil layer temperature, commonly used in land surface parametrization schemes. Nonlinear dynamical consideration of this coupled system includes: (i) examination of period one fixed point and (ii) bifurcation analysis. Focusing part of analysis is calculation of the Lyapunov exponent for a specific range of values of system parameters and discussion about domain of stability for this coupled system. Finally, we calculate Kolmogorov complexity of time series generated from the coupled system.

  9. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  10. Uncertainty in Discount Models and Environmental Accounting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Ludwig

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Cost-benefit analysis (CBA is controversial for environmental issues, but is nevertheless employed by many governments and private organizations for making environmental decisions. Controversy centers on the practice of economic discounting in CBA for decisions that have substantial long-term consequences, as do most environmental decisions. Customarily, economic discounting has been calculated at a constant exponential rate, a practice that weights the present heavily in comparison with the future. Recent analyses of economic data show that the assumption of constant exponential discounting should be modified to take into account large uncertainties in long-term discount rates. A proper treatment of this uncertainty requires that we consider returns over a plausible range of assumptions about future discounting rates. When returns are averaged in this way, the schemes with the most severe discounting have a negligible effect on the average after a long period of time has elapsed. This re-examination of economic uncertainty provides support for policies that prevent or mitigate environmental damage. We examine these effects for three examples: a stylized renewable resource, management of a long-lived species (Atlantic Right Whales, and lake eutrophication.

  11. Department of Energy environmental management complex-wide integration using systems engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fairbourn, P.

    1997-10-01

    A systems engineering approach was successfully used to recommend changes to environmental management activities across the DOE Complex. A team of technical experts and systems engineers developed alternatives that could save tax payers billions of dollars if the barriers are removed to allow complete implementation. The alternatives are technically-based and defensible, and are being worked through the stakeholder review process. The integration process and implementing project structure are both discussed.

  12. Environmental Fate of a Complex Mixture, Creosote, in Two Species of Fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-04-01

    present results demonstrate the potential usefulness of isolated fish hepatocytes as an alternative to live animals in studies of aquatic toxicology . Accesion...to live animals in studies of aquatic toxicology . 8 INTRODUCTION Creosote is a complex mixture of mutagenic and carcinogenic compounds and is used...J.M.J., (1982) Use of aquatic toxicology and quantitative chemistry to estimate environmental deactivation of marine- grade creosote in seawater

  13. Department of Energy environmental management complex-wide integration using systems engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairbourn, P.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach was successfully used to recommend changes to environmental management activities across the DOE Complex. A team of technical experts and systems engineers developed alternatives that could save tax payers billions of dollars if the barriers are removed to allow complete implementation. The alternatives are technically-based and defensible, and are being worked through the stakeholder review process. The integration process and implementing project structure are both discussed

  14. Modeling and Simulation of Multi-scale Environmental Systems with Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa eHerajy

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting and studying the dynamics and properties of environmental systems necessitates the construction and simulation of mathematical models entailing different levels of complexities. Such type of computational experiments often require the combination of discrete and continuous variables as well as processes operating at different time scales. Furthermore, the iterative steps of constructing and analyzing environmental models might involve researchers with different background. Hybrid Petri nets may contribute in overcoming such challenges as they facilitate the implementation of systems integrating discrete and continuous dynamics. Additionally, the visual depiction of model components will inevitably help to bridge the gap between scientists with distinct expertise working on the same problem. Thus, modeling environmental systems with hybrid Petri nets enables the construction of complex processes while keeping the models comprehensible for researchers working on the same project with significantly divergent education path. In this paper we propose the utilization of a special class of hybrid Petri nets, Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN, to model and simulate environmental systems exposing processes interacting at different time-scales. GHPN integrate stochastic and deterministic semantics as well as other types of special basic events. Moreover, a case study is presented to illustrate the use of GHPN in constructing and simulating multi-timescale environmental scenarios.

  15. Modelling the luminescence of iridium cyclometalated complexes encapsulated in cucurbituril.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alrawashdeh, Lubna R; Cronin, Michael P; Day, Anthony I; Wallace, Lynne; Woodward, Clifford E

    2018-01-15

    Iridium(iii) cyclometalated complexes in aqueous solution often display relatively weak luminescence. It has been shown in previous work that this emission can be significantly enhanced (by up to two orders of magnitude) by encapsulation in cucurbit[10]uril (Q[10]). Luminescence lifetime measurements suggest a dynamic self-quenching mechanism is active, possibly due to displacement of an excited guest complex via collision with an unbound complex. We devise a model for the association of a group of iridium(iii) cyclometalated complexes with Q[10]. The model parameters are then fitted to steady-state emission titration curves. The excellent agreement of experimental data with the model provides valuable mechanistic information relating to the way this class of metal complexes interact and associate with the Q[10] host.

  16. Fluid flow modeling in complex areas*, **

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poullet Pascal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We show first results of 3D simulation of sea currents in a realistic context. We use the full Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible viscous fluid. The problem is solved using a second order incremental projection method associated with the finite volume of the staggered (MAC scheme for the spatial discretization. After validation on classical cases, it is used in a numerical simulation of the Pointe à Pitre harbour area. The use of the fictious domain method permits us to take into account the complexity of bathymetric data and allows us to work with regular meshes and thus preserves the efficiency essential for a 3D code. Dans cette étude, nous présentons les premiers résultats de simulation d’un écoulement d’un fluide incompressible visqueux dans un contexte environnemental réel. L’approche utilisée utilise une méthode de domaines fictifs pour une prise en compte d’un domaine physique tridimensionnel très irrégulier. Le schéma numérique combine un schéma de projection incrémentale et des volumes finis utilisant des volumes de contrôle adaptés à un maillage décalé. Les tests de validation sont menés pour les cas tests de la cavité double entraînée ainsi que l’écoulement dans un canal avec un obstacle placé de manière asymmétrique.

  17. Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model. Nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions, value capture methods, and barriers to market entry are analysed. This analysis defines 'complex value' as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector. The process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers, commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets; to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system. - Highlights: •Business models of energy supply markets shape energy transitions. •The British system misses four opportunities of local electricity supply. •Nine new business model archetypes of local supply are analysed. •New electricity business models have complex value propositions. •A process for policy response to business model innovation is presented.

  18. The application of DEA model in enterprise environmental performance auditing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zhu, L. Y.; Zhang, J. D.; Liu, C. Y.; Qu, Z. G.; Xiao, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    As a part of society, enterprises have an inescapable responsibility for environmental protection and governance. This article discusses the feasibility and necessity of enterprises environmental performance auditing and uses DEA model calculate the environmental performance of Haier for example. The most of reference data are selected and sorted from Haier’s environmental reportspublished in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2015, and some of the data from some published articles and fieldwork. All the calculation results are calculated by DEAP software andhave a high credibility. The analysis results of this article can give corporate managements an idea about using environmental performance auditing to adjust their corporate environmental investments capital quota and change their company’s environmental strategies.

  19. Surface-complexation models for sorption onto heterogeneous surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, K.B.

    1997-10-01

    This report provides a description of the discrete-logK spectrum model, together with a description of its derivation, and of its place in the larger context of surface-complexation modelling. The tools necessary to apply the discrete-logK spectrum model are discussed, and background information appropriate to this discussion is supplied as appendices. (author)

  20. Modeling air-quality in complex terrain using mesoscale and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  1. Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  2. X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy Identifies Calcium-Uranyl-Carbonate Complexes at Environmental Concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Shelly D.; Kemner, Kenneth M.; Brooks, Scott C.

    2007-01-01

    Current research on bioremediation of uranium-contaminated groundwater focuses on supplying indigenous metal-reducing bacteria with the appropriate metabolic requirements to induce microbiological reduction of soluble uranium(VI) to poorly soluble uranium(IV). Recent studies of uranium(VI) bioreduction in the presence of environmentally relevant levels of calcium revealed limited and slowed uranium(VI) reduction and the formation of a Ca-UO2-CO3 complex. However, the stoichiometry of the complex is poorly defined and may be complicated by the presence of a Na-UO2-CO3 complex. Such a complex might exist even at high calcium concentrations, as some UO2-CO3 complexes will still be present. The number of calcium and/or sodium atoms coordinated to a uranyl carbonate complex will determine the net charge of the complex. Such a change in aqueous speciation of uranium(VI) in calcareous groundwater may affect the fate and transport properties of uranium. In this paper, we present the results from X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) measurements of a series of solutions containing 50 lM uranium(VI) and 30 mM sodium bicarbonate, with various calcium concentrations of 0-5 mM. Use of the data series reduces the uncertainty in the number of calcium atoms bound to the UO2-CO3 complex to approximately 0.6 and enables spectroscopic identification of the Na-UO2-CO3 complex. At nearly neutral pH values, the numbers of sodium and calcium atoms bound to the uranyl triscarbonate species are found to depend on the calcium concentration, as predicted by speciation calculations

  3. Model complexity and performance: How far can we simplify?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raick, C.; Soetaert, K.; Grégoire, M.

    2006-07-01

    Handling model complexity and reliability is a key area of research today. While complex models containing sufficient detail have become possible due to increased computing power, they often lead to too much uncertainty. On the other hand, very simple models often crudely oversimplify the real ecosystem and can not be used for management purposes. Starting from a complex and validated 1D pelagic ecosystem model of the Ligurian Sea (NW Mediterranean Sea), we derived simplified aggregated models in which either the unbalanced algal growth, the functional group diversity or the explicit description of the microbial loop was sacrificed. To overcome the problem of data availability with adequate spatial and temporal resolution, the outputs of the complex model are used as the baseline of perfect knowledge to calibrate the simplified models. Objective criteria of model performance were used to compare the simplified models’ results to the complex model output and to the available data at the DYFAMED station in the central Ligurian Sea. We show that even the simplest (NPZD) model is able to represent the global ecosystem features described by the complex model (e.g. primary and secondary productions, particulate organic matter export flux, etc.). However, a certain degree of sophistication in the formulation of some biogeochemical processes is required to produce realistic behaviors (e.g. the phytoplankton competition, the potential carbon or nitrogen limitation of the zooplankton ingestion, the model trophic closure, etc.). In general, a 9 state-variable model that has the functional group diversity removed, but which retains the bacterial loop and the unbalanced algal growth, performs best.

  4. Effects of environmental complexity and temporary captivity on foraging behavior of wild-caught meadow voles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozuch, Amaranta E; McPhee, M Elsbeth

    2014-01-01

    Increased housing of wild nonhuman animals in captivity for conservation, research, and rehabilitation has revealed the importance of systematically analyzing effects of the captive environment on behavior. This study focused on the effects of complexity and time held in captivity on foraging behaviors of wild-caught, adult meadow voles (Microtus pennsylvanicus). Forty-six individuals captured from a meadow outside Oshkosh, WI, were assigned to 1 of 4 captive treatment groups: simple/50 days, complex/50 days. Number of dish visits, proportion foraging, and frequency of nonforaging behaviors recorded during a 15-min foraging trial were measured for all subjects. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U Tests were conducted to analyze 4 different comparisons within this behavioral data. Overall, neither time in captivity or environmental complexity affected nonforaging behaviors. In contrast, foraging behaviors did change with treatment: Voles were less active at food dishes and visited control dishes more in treatment group SS than in the other treatment groups. In addition, sex-related differences in foraging behaviors were maintained when voles were exposed to environmental complexity. This article includes options for wildlife managers to adapt captive environments to meet the welfare and behavioral needs of translocated wild nonhuman mammals.

  5. Environmental Screening for the Scedosporium apiospermum Species Complex in Public Parks in Bangkok, Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natthanej Luplertlop

    Full Text Available The Scedosporium apiospermum species complex, comprising filamentous fungal species S. apiospermum sensu stricto, S. boydii, S. aurantiacum, S. dehoogii and S. minutispora, are important pathogens that cause a wide variety of infections. Although some species (S. boydii and S. apiospermum have been isolated from patients in Thailand, no environmental surveys of these fungi have been performed in Thailand or surrounding countries. In this study, we isolated and identified species of these fungi from 68 soil and 16 water samples randomly collected from 10 parks in Bangkok. After filtration and subsequent inoculation of samples on Scedo-Select III medium, colony morphological examinations and microscopic observations were performed. Scedosporium species were isolated from soil in 8 of the 10 parks, but were only detected in one water sample. Colony morphologies of isolates from 41 of 68 soil samples (60.29% and 1 of 15 water samples (6.67% were consistent with that of the S. apiospermum species complex. Each morphological type was selected for species identification based on DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the β-tubulin gene. Three species of the S. apiospermum species complex were identified: S. apiospermum (71 isolates, S. aurantiacum (6 isolates and S. dehoogii (5 isolates. In addition, 16 sequences could not be assigned to an exact Scedosporium species. According to our environmental survey, the S. apiospermum species complex is widespread in soil in Bangkok, Thailand.

  6. Modelling the self-organization and collapse of complex networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modelling the self-organization and collapse of complex networks. Sanjay Jain Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Bangalore Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico.

  7. Modeling of environmental adaptation versus pollution mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    YATSENKO, Yuri; HRITONENKO, Natali; BRECHET, Thierry

    2014-01-01

    The paper combines analytic and numeric tools to investigate a nonlinear optimal control problem relevant to the economics of climate change. The problem describes optimal investments into pollution mitigation and environmental adaptation at a macroeconomic level. The steady-state analysis of this problem focuses on the optimal ratio between adaptation and mitigation. In particular, we analytically prove that the long- term investments into adaptation are profitable only for economies above c...

  8. Geometric modeling of subcellular structures, organelles, and multiprotein complexes

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Xin; Xia, Kelin; Tong, Yiying; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2012-01-01

    Recently, the structure, function, stability, and dynamics of subcellular structures, organelles, and multi-protein complexes have emerged as a leading interest in structural biology. Geometric modeling not only provides visualizations of shapes for large biomolecular complexes but also fills the gap between structural information and theoretical modeling, and enables the understanding of function, stability, and dynamics. This paper introduces a suite of computational tools for volumetric da...

  9. Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gorban, Alexander N

    2011-01-01

    This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

  10. Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

  11. Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

    2017-07-01

    Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

  12. Size and complexity in model financial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M

    2012-11-06

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in "confidence" in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases.

  13. Public communication on times of environmental crisis. The opening of San Rafael 's uranium complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvino, Carlos; Cisneros, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Argentina has had a lot of cultural changes in the last few years. An environmental movement has gathered and is trying to stop the opening of the Sierra Pintada uranium complex, near the city of San Rafael, in the south of Mendoza province. Since 2005, several 'groundless information' have been published in the local media about the dangers of this re-opening. These news exaggerate the properties of radon gas, claiming that it will reach San Rafael city (20 miles from the complex), rising radiological risk among the population, etc. This scene shows a 'non-real' picture of the regulatory activities that the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN), a government agency that regulates nuclear facilities in Argentina, is really and systematically accomplishing. In this situation, the board of Directors of ARN decided to entrust a full analysis of the environmental issue in the area. The Office of Press and Communication implemented a local communication plan, using a Strategic and Systemic tool kit. The period to be analyzed is from second semester 2005 to February 2007. A little bit of history: the San Rafael Complex started in September 20 of 1979. It belongs to the National Commission of Atomic Energy (CNEA), a government agency. Until its temporary suspension in 1995 for international market reasons (uranium price was U$S 10 / pound), almost 2 million tons of uranium were processed. Besides its temporary suspension, the ARN has been constantly monitoring this particular former complex. In the year 2001, CNEA notices that the uranium price starts to rise and entrust National Technology University, Avellaneda Branch, to accomplish an Environmental Impact Report, according to the argentine law 25.585. Due especially to the rising of uranium price, (actually, the uranium price is approximately U$S 200) the national government determined to restart the extraction of the mineral again. By the year 2004, with the results of the Environmental Impact report, CNEA

  14. Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

    2015-01-01

    In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

  15. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs

  16. Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.

    2014-01-01

    Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with

  17. satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IICBA01

    It also affects the oceans, weather patterns, snow & ice, plants & animals. The warmer it gets the more ... Rising sea level also result as glaciers begins to melt and due to increasing heat it is melting at higher rates, this affect the humanity live near the coast or by major areas. Energy plays an important role in many aspects ...

  18. Gene-disease network analysis reveals functional modules in mendelian, complex and environmental diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer-Mehren, Anna; Bundschus, Markus; Rautschka, Michael; Mayer, Miguel A; Sanz, Ferran; Furlong, Laura I

    2011-01-01

    Scientists have been trying to understand the molecular mechanisms of diseases to design preventive and therapeutic strategies for a long time. For some diseases, it has become evident that it is not enough to obtain a catalogue of the disease-related genes but to uncover how disruptions of molecular networks in the cell give rise to disease phenotypes. Moreover, with the unprecedented wealth of information available, even obtaining such catalogue is extremely difficult. We developed a comprehensive gene-disease association database by integrating associations from several sources that cover different biomedical aspects of diseases. In particular, we focus on the current knowledge of human genetic diseases including mendelian, complex and environmental diseases. To assess the concept of modularity of human diseases, we performed a systematic study of the emergent properties of human gene-disease networks by means of network topology and functional annotation analysis. The results indicate a highly shared genetic origin of human diseases and show that for most diseases, including mendelian, complex and environmental diseases, functional modules exist. Moreover, a core set of biological pathways is found to be associated with most human diseases. We obtained similar results when studying clusters of diseases, suggesting that related diseases might arise due to dysfunction of common biological processes in the cell. For the first time, we include mendelian, complex and environmental diseases in an integrated gene-disease association database and show that the concept of modularity applies for all of them. We furthermore provide a functional analysis of disease-related modules providing important new biological insights, which might not be discovered when considering each of the gene-disease association repositories independently. Hence, we present a suitable framework for the study of how genetic and environmental factors, such as drugs, contribute to diseases. The

  19. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector....

  20. Developing Seventh Grade Students' Understanding of Complex Environmental Problems with Systems Tools and Representations: a Quasi-experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doganca Kucuk, Zerrin; Saysel, Ali Kerem

    2017-03-01

    A systems-based classroom intervention on environmental education was designed for seventh grade students; the results were evaluated to see its impact on the development of systems thinking skills and standard science achievement and whether the systems approach is a more effective way to teach environmental issues that are dynamic and complex. A quasi-experimental methodology was used to compare performances of the participants in various dimensions, including systems thinking skills, competence in dynamic environmental problem solving and success in science achievement tests. The same pre-, post- and delayed tests were used with both the comparison and experimental groups in the same public middle school in Istanbul. Classroom activities designed for the comparison group (N = 20) followed the directives of the Science and Technology Curriculum, while the experimental group (N = 22) covered the same subject matter through activities benefiting from systems tools and representations such as behaviour over time graphs, causal loop diagrams, stock-flow structures and hands-on dynamic modelling. After a one-month systems-based instruction, the experimental group demonstrated significantly better systems thinking and dynamic environmental problem solving skills. Achievement in dynamic problem solving was found to be relatively stable over time. However, standard science achievement did not improve at all. This paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the results, the weaknesses of the curriculum and educational implications.

  1. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  2. Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

    2013-04-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

  3. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  4. Generic models and parameters for assessing the environmental transfer of radionuclides from routine releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    This report is addressed to national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses, in particular for generic assessments of doses to most exposed individuals from routine releases of radioactive effluents to atmospheric and aquatic environments. The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect, in which actions and reactions are coupled in a complex but predictable manner, have led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which tries to forecast probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that attempt to describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision-making process

  5. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  6. An Examination of Models of Relaxation in Complex Systems. I. Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-02-04

    M NRL Memorandum Report 5719 An Examination of Models of Relaxation in Complex Systems 1. Continuous Time Random Walk ( CTRW ) Models K. L. NGAI, R. W...Examination of Models of Relaxation in Complex Systems I. Continuous Time Random Walk ( CTRW ) Models E. PSRSONAL AUTHOR(S) Ntgi, K.L., Rendell. R.W...necessary and idenrify by block number) Models of relaxation in complex systemL based on the continuous time random walk ( CTRW ) formalism are examined on

  7. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  8. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler; Huffnagle, Ian; Besser, John M.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegansand P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  9. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Rudel

    Full Text Available Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water, we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  10. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler D; Huffnagle, Ian M; Besser, John M; Ingersoll, Christopher G

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  11. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  12. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  13. EcoMark: Evaluating Models of Vehicular Environmental Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Chenjuan; Ma, Mike; Yang, Bin

    2012-01-01

    the vehicle travels in. We develop an evaluation framework, called EcoMark, for such environmental impact models. In addition, we survey all eleven state-of-the-art impact models known to us. To gain insight into the capabilities of the models and to understand the effectiveness of the EcoMark, we apply...

  14. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  15. Modeling Adaptive and Nonadaptive Responses of Populations to Environmental Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia; Plard, Floriane; Schindler, Susanne; Ozgul, Arpat; Gaillard, Jean-Michel

    2017-09-01

    Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population-level plastic and evolutionary responses, with plastic responses being either adaptive or nonadaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends on whether plastic responses are adaptive or nonadaptive. Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full machinery of the evolutionarily explicit models we develop will be needed to predict responses to environmental change or whether simpler nonevolutionary models that are now widely constructed may be sufficient.

  16. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  17. Physio-environmental sensing and live modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castiglione, Filippo; Diaz, Vanessa; Gaggioli, Andrea; Liò, Pietro; Mazzà, Claudia; Merelli, Emanuela; Meskers, Carel G M; Pappalardo, Francesco; von Ammon, Rainer

    2013-01-30

    In daily life, humans are constantly interacting with their environment. Evidence is emerging that this interaction is a very important modulator of health and well-being, even more so in our rapidly ageing society. Information and communication technology lies at the heart of the human health care revolution. It cannot remain acceptable to use out of date data analysis and predictive algorithms when superior alternatives exist. Communication network speed, high penetration of home broadband, availability of various mobile network options, together with the available detailed biological data for individuals, are producing promising advances in computerized systems that will turn information on human-environment interactions into actual knowledge with the potential to help make medical and lifestyle decisions. We introduced and discussed a key scenario in which hardware and software technologies capable of simultaneously sensing physiological and environmental signals process health care data in real-time to issue alarms, warnings, or simple recommendations to the patient or carers.

  18. Geometric modeling of subcellular structures, organelles, and multiprotein complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xin; Xia, Kelin; Tong, Yiying; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2012-12-01

    Recently, the structure, function, stability, and dynamics of subcellular structures, organelles, and multiprotein complexes have emerged as a leading interest in structural biology. Geometric modeling not only provides visualizations of shapes for large biomolecular complexes but also fills the gap between structural information and theoretical modeling, and enables the understanding of function, stability, and dynamics. This paper introduces a suite of computational tools for volumetric data processing, information extraction, surface mesh rendering, geometric measurement, and curvature estimation of biomolecular complexes. Particular emphasis is given to the modeling of cryo-electron microscopy data. Lagrangian-triangle meshes are employed for the surface presentation. On the basis of this representation, algorithms are developed for surface area and surface-enclosed volume calculation, and curvature estimation. Methods for volumetric meshing have also been presented. Because the technological development in computer science and mathematics has led to multiple choices at each stage of the geometric modeling, we discuss the rationales in the design and selection of various algorithms. Analytical models are designed to test the computational accuracy and convergence of proposed algorithms. Finally, we select a set of six cryo-electron microscopy data representing typical subcellular complexes to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms in handling biomolecular surfaces and explore their capability of geometric characterization of binding targets. This paper offers a comprehensive protocol for the geometric modeling of subcellular structures, organelles, and multiprotein complexes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Feature Compensation Employing Multiple Environmental Models for Robust In-Vehicle Speech Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Wooil; Hansen, John H. L.

    An effective feature compensation method is developed for reliable speech recognition in real-life in-vehicle environments. The CU-Move corpus, used for evaluation, contains a range of speech and noise signals collected for a number of speakers under actual driving conditions. PCGMM-based feature compensation, considered in this paper, utilizes parallel model combination to generate noise-corrupted speech model by combining clean speech and the noise model. In order to address unknown time-varying background noise, an interpolation method of multiple environmental models is employed. To alleviate computational expenses due to multiple models, an Environment Transition Model is employed, which is motivated from Noise Language Model used in Environmental Sniffing. An environment dependent scheme of mixture sharing technique is proposed and shown to be more effective in reducing the computational complexity. A smaller environmental model set is determined by the environment transition model for mixture sharing. The proposed scheme is evaluated on the connected single digits portion of the CU-Move database using the Aurora2 evaluation toolkit. Experimental results indicate that our feature compensation method is effective for improving speech recognition in real-life in-vehicle conditions. A reduction of 73.10% of the computational requirements was obtained by employing the environment dependent mixture sharing scheme with only a slight change in recognition performance. This demonstrates that the proposed method is effective in maintaining the distinctive characteristics among the different environmental models, even when selecting a large number of Gaussian components for mixture sharing.

  20. Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

    2018-01-01

    Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

  1. Modeling Complex Nesting Structures in International Business Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Nielsen, Sabina

    2013-01-01

    hierarchical random coefficient models (RCM) are often used for the analysis of multilevel phenomena, IB issues often result in more complex nested structures. This paper illustrates how cross-nested multilevel modeling allowing for predictor variables and cross-level interactions at multiple (crossed) levels...

  2. Modelling the complex dynamics of vegetation, livestock and rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... present mathematical models that incorporate ideas from complex systems theory to integrate several strands of rangeland theory in a hierarchical framework. Compared with observed data from South Africa, the model successfully predicted the relationship between rainfall, vegetation composition and animal numbers ...

  3. Complex Instruction: A Model for Reaching Up--and Out

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Carol Ann

    2018-01-01

    Complex Instruction is a multifaceted instructional model designed to provide highly challenging learning opportunities for students in heterogeneous classrooms. The model provides a rationale for and philosophy of creating equity of access to excellent curriculum and instruction for a broad range of learners, guidance for preparing students for…

  4. Surfactant-free nanoparticle-DNA complexes with ultrahigh stability against salt for environmental and biological sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heo, Jun Hyuk; Cho, Hui Hun; Lee, Jung Heon

    2014-11-21

    We report the development of surfactant free-gold nanoparticle (AuNP)-DNA complexes that remained stable in solutions with extremely high ionic strength, using seawater as a model solution. Although the stability of AuNPs can be increased to a certain degree by functionalizing negatively charged DNA strands on their surfaces, they still have limited stability in highly concentrated salt solutions. However, we found that AuNPs functionalized with poly-T bases have exceptional stability in high ionic strength solutions. For example, AuNPs functionalized with a 5T spacer remained highly stable in seawater, with no color change and no red-shift in absorbance spectra for up to 9 days. Using this surprising property of poly-T spacers, we prepared highly stable AuNP-DNA complexes containing random sequences by introducing 5T spacers on the random sequenced DNA strand. The random sequenced AuNP-DNA complexes remained stable in seawater, several molar concentrations of monovalent metal ion solutions (6.1 M Na(+) or 4.8 M K(+)), and millimolar concentrations of diverse divalent metal ions. In addition, the highly stable AuNP-DNA complex maintained biological activity in seawater, which was demonstrated by complementary reaction and aptamer based biosensing. These results provide important insight into NP use for various applications under harsh biological and environmental conditions.

  5. Estimating the complexity of 3D structural models using machine learning methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía-Herrera, Pablo; Kakurina, Maria; Royer, Jean-Jacques

    2016-04-01

    Quantifying the complexity of 3D geological structural models can play a major role in natural resources exploration surveys, for predicting environmental hazards or for forecasting fossil resources. This paper proposes a structural complexity index which can be used to help in defining the degree of effort necessary to build a 3D model for a given degree of confidence, and also to identify locations where addition efforts are required to meet a given acceptable risk of uncertainty. In this work, it is considered that the structural complexity index can be estimated using machine learning methods on raw geo-data. More precisely, the metrics for measuring the complexity can be approximated as the difficulty degree associated to the prediction of the geological objects distribution calculated based on partial information on the actual structural distribution of materials. The proposed methodology is tested on a set of 3D synthetic structural models for which the degree of effort during their building is assessed using various parameters (such as number of faults, number of part in a surface object, number of borders, ...), the rank of geological elements contained in each model, and, finally, their level of deformation (folding and faulting). The results show how the estimated complexity in a 3D model can be approximated by the quantity of partial data necessaries to simulated at a given precision the actual 3D model without error using machine learning algorithms.

  6. Fast identification of microplastics in complex environmental samples by a thermal degradation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dümichen, Erik; Eisentraut, Paul; Bannick, Claus Gerhard; Barthel, Anne-Kathrin; Senz, Rainer; Braun, Ulrike

    2017-05-01

    In order to determine the relevance of microplastic particles in various environmental media, comprehensive investigations are needed. However, no analytical method exists for fast identification and quantification. At present, optical spectroscopy methods like IR and RAMAN imaging are used. Due to their time consuming procedures and uncertain extrapolation, reliable monitoring is difficult. For analyzing polymers Py-GC-MS is a standard method. However, due to a limited sample amount of about 0.5 mg it is not suited for analysis of complex sample mixtures like environmental samples. Therefore, we developed a new thermoanalytical method as a first step for identifying microplastics in environmental samples. A sample amount of about 20 mg, which assures the homogeneity of the sample, is subjected to complete thermal decomposition. The specific degradation products of the respective polymer are adsorbed on a solid-phase adsorber and subsequently analyzed by thermal desorption gas chromatography mass spectrometry. For certain identification, the specific degradation products for the respective polymer were selected first. Afterwards real environmental samples from the aquatic (three different rivers) and the terrestrial (bio gas plant) systems were screened for microplastics. Mainly polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE) and polystyrene (PS) were identified for the samples from the bio gas plant and PE and PS from the rivers. However, this was only the first step and quantification measurements will follow. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  8. Environmental Assessment for Central Campus Complex John F. Kennedy Space Center, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dankert, Donald

    2013-01-01

    This Environmental Assessment addresses the Proposed Action to consolidate multiple facilities in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Industrial Area by constructing two new buildings in the existing headquarters area between NASA Parkway, 3rd Street, C Avenue, and D Avenue. Under the Proposed Action, the historic Headquarters Building will be demolished and a new building will be constructed closer to the Operations and Checkout Building by centering it on D A venue (Hunton Brady Architects, P A and Jones Edmunds and Associates, Inc. 2011). This option was selected from a group of 15 initial sketches as the most viable option during a Central Campus Complex Siting Study completed in February 2011. A No-Action Alternative is also presented in which no demolition or construction of new facilities would occur. Implementing the Proposed Action will have major impacts to cultural resources, while the remaining environmental impacts will be minor.

  9. Health, safety, and environmental risk assessment of steel production complex in central Iran using TOPSIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jozi, S A; Majd, N Moradi

    2014-10-01

    This research was carried out with the aim of presenting an environmental management plan for steel production complex (SPC) in central Iran. Following precise identification of the plant activities as well as the study area, possible sources of environmental pollution and adverse impacts on the air quality, water, soil, biological environment, socioeconomic and cultural environment, and health and safety of the employees were determined considering the work processes of the steel complex. Afterwards, noise, wastewater, and air pollution sources were measured. Subsequently, factors polluting the steel complex were identified by TOPSIS and then prioritized using Excel Software. Based on the obtained results, the operation of the furnaces in hot rolling process with the score 1, effluent derived from hot rolling process with the score 0.565, nonprincipal disposal and dumping of waste at the plant enclosure with the score 0.335, walking beam process with the score 1.483 respectively allocated themselves the highest priority in terms of air, water, soil and noise pollution. In terms of habitats, land cover and socioeconomic and cultural environment, closeness to the forest area and the existence of four groups of wildlife with the score 1.106 and proximity of villages and residential areas to the plant with the score 3.771 respectively enjoyed the highest priorities while impressibility and occupational accidents with the score 2.725 and cutting and welding operations with score 2.134 had the highest priority among health and safety criteria. Finally, strategies for the control of pollution sources were identified and Training, Monitoring and environmental management plan of the SPC was prepared.

  10. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  11. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding how the natural world will be impacted by environmental change over the coming decades is one of the most pressing challenges facing humanity. Addressing this challenge is difficult because environmental change can generate both population level plastic and evolutionary responses...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non...... machinery of the evolutionarily explicit models we develop will be needed to predict responses to environmental change, or whether simpler non-evolutionary models that are now widely constructed may be sufficient....

  12. Environmental management plan of the mining and industrial uranium complex in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figuereido, N.; Hilton, M.; Wiikman, L.; Oliveira, M.; Taddei, J.

    1996-01-01

    The Mining and Industrial Complex of the Pocos de Caldas Plateau (CIPC) is located at Caldas, county in the southwest of Minas Gerais state. It is a plant of the Industrias Nucleares do Brazil S.A. -INB, the only installation in Brazil for the production of uranium concentrate (yellow-cake) as ammonium diuranate (Adu). The Environmental protection and control program in practice assures the environmental management plan, in operation, maintaining the Complex within technology standards required by updated environmental concepts. The mine is an open pit operation with a surface diameter of 1000 m and an actual average depth of 120 m. Some 44 x 10 6 m 3 of the overburden material were used in embankments structures to civil engineering works in the implantation of several installations in CIPC, and the other portion of the removed material was deposited in two pre-selected areas having both an upper area of about 2,0 x 10 6 m 2 . The annual average volume of waters transported to chemical treatment is about 9,0 x 10 5 m 3 . The mill, in its full operation, processes 2500 t of ore per day and the solid and liquid tailings are directed to a waste pond system where are contained approximately 2,0 x 10 6 m 3 (2,2 x 10 6 t) of solid wastes with an estimation of further 70 x 10 5 m 3 to be disposed. The upper surface of tailings pond is about 2,0 x 10 5 m 2 . Nowadays, the environmental protection and control program aims to the development of potential pollutant areas stabilization reintegrating them into their original features or adjusting them to other forms of laudable restoration. (authors). 1 fig

  13. A performance comparison of atmospheric dispersion models over complex topography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kido, Hiroko; Oishi, Ryoko; Hayashi, Keisuke; Kanno, Mitsuhiro; Kurosawa, Naohiro

    2007-01-01

    A code system using mass-consistent and Gaussian puff model was improved for a new option of atmospheric dispersion research. There are several atmospheric dispersion models for radionuclides. Because different models have both merits and disadvantages, it is necessary to choose the model that is most suitable for the surface conditions of the estimated region while regarding the calculation time, accuracy, and purpose of the calculations being performed. Some models are less accurate when the topography is complex. It is important to understand the differences between the models for smooth and complex surfaces. In this study, the performances of the following four models were compared: (1) Gaussian plume model (2) Gaussian puff model (3) Mass-consistent wind fields and Gaussian puff model that was improved in this study from one presented in Aomori Energy Society of Japan, 2005 Fall Meeting, D21. (4) Meso-scale meteorological model (RAMS: The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) and particle-type model (HYPACT: The RAMS Hybrid Particle and Concentration Transport Model) (Reference: ATMET). (author)

  14. Complexity and phase transitions in a holographic QCD model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shao-Jun

    2018-04-01

    Applying the "Complexity = Action" conjecture, we study the holographic complexity close to crossover/phase transition in a holographic QCD model proposed by Gubser et al. This model can realize three types of phase transition, crossover or first and second order, depending on the parameters of the dilaton potential. The re-scaled late-time growth rate of holographic complexity density for the three cases is calculated. Our results show that it experiences a fast drop/jump close to the critical point while approaching constants far beyond the critical temperature. Moreover, close to the critical temperature, it shows a behavior characterizing the type of the transition. These features suggest that the growth rate of the holographic complexity may be used as a good parameter to characterize the phase transition. The Lloyd's bound is always satisfied for the cases we considered but only saturated for the conformal case.

  15. Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

    2017-08-01

    The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

  16. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  17. Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

    2017-12-01

    Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

  18. Development of an environmental tritium model; ETDOSE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andoh, Mariko; Takahashi, Tomoyuki; Amano, Hikaru [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1999-03-01

    ETDOSE is a simple computer code to calculate atmospheric distribution patterns of tritium for an acute and a chronic release of HT and HTO. This code calculates tritium concentrations in air, soil, plant free water and OBT, and estimates dose impact by inhalation of air and ingestion of food. Participation in IAEA`s model validation program BIOMASS has been done using this code for BIOMASS Scenario 1. This paper shows the outline of ETDOSE and preliminary results of model comparison in BIOMASS program. (author)

  19. Environmental Restoration and Waste Management manpower needs assessment: US Department of Energy complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmes, C.W.; Lewis, R.E.; Hunt, S.T. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Finn, M.G. (Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States))

    1992-06-01

    A study was conducted Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc. to assess the supply and demand for 53 scientific, engineering, and technical occupations relevant to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM). These assessments were made by examining budget projections and the input of program/project and human resources managers throughout the DOE complex. Quantitative projections of full-time equivalent employees slots for each occupation have been developed for the 1993--1997 time frame. Qualitative assessments of the factors that affect recruitment, staffing, and retention are also reported. The implications of the study are discussed within the likely skills mix of the future workforce and the education and organization interventions most likely to address the needs of the DOE complex.

  20. Environmental Restoration and Waste Management manpower needs assessment: US Department of Energy complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmes, C.W.; Lewis, R.E.; Hunt, S.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Finn, M.G. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States)

    1992-06-01

    A study was conducted Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc. to assess the supply and demand for 53 scientific, engineering, and technical occupations relevant to the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM). These assessments were made by examining budget projections and the input of program/project and human resources managers throughout the DOE complex. Quantitative projections of full-time equivalent employees slots for each occupation have been developed for the 1993--1997 time frame. Qualitative assessments of the factors that affect recruitment, staffing, and retention are also reported. The implications of the study are discussed within the likely skills mix of the future workforce and the education and organization interventions most likely to address the needs of the DOE complex.

  1. International technology transfer to support the environmental restoration needs of the DOE complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Jimenez, R.D.; Roberds, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    One of the principal objectives of the International Technology Exchange Program (ITEP) is the exchange of waste management and environmental restoration (WM/ER) technologies between the US and other nations. The current emphasis of ITEP is the transfer of technologies to the US that could provide better, faster, cheaper, or safer solutions to the needs of the DOE complex. The 10 candidate technologies that have been identified thus far by ITEP are discussed. The highlights of preliminary evaluations of these technologies through a systems approach are also described. The technologies have been evaluated by a screening process to determine their applicability to the leading WM/ER needs of the DOE complex. The technologies have been qualitatively compared with the known or anticipated capabilities of domestic, base case technologies

  2. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  3. Model of environmental management system for environmentally sustainable universities training in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas Marin, Maria Isabel

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable campuses have become one of the main objectives of the Agendas University as a result of the impacts generated by the activities developed there and affect the environment. Given this, there are environmental management systems which are the set of practices, procedures, processes and resources needed to meet environmental regulations on business and are focused on reducing the impacts on the environment and the efficiency of processes. College- level companies still being considered, these systems do not work efficiently, it is necessary and urgent that the adequacy of a model environmental management system and that, through education and research, will help society to achieve the transition to sustainable lifestyles.

  4. Energy Efficient Wireless Sensor Network Modelling Based on Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Lin; Wu, Fahui; Yang, Dingcheng; Zhang, Tiankui; Zhu, Xiaoya

    2016-01-01

    The power consumption and energy efficiency of wireless sensor network are the significant problems in Internet of Things network. In this paper, we consider the network topology optimization based on complex network theory to solve the energy efficiency problem of WSN. We propose the energy efficient model of WSN according to the basic principle of small world from complex networks. Small world network has clustering features that are similar to that of the rules of the network but also has ...

  5. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  6. Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1996-01-01

    with the results of the classical approach using Rayleighquotients. Several rotor systems are tested: a simple Laval rotor, a Laval rotor with additional elasticity and damping in thr bearings, and a number of rotor systems with complex symmetric 4x4 randomly generated matrices.......A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

  7. [Isolation of Sporothrix pallida complex in clinical and environmental samples from Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz Choappa, Rodrigo M; Vieille Oyarzo, Peggy I; Carvajal Silva, Laura C

    2014-01-01

    The isolation of S. pallida complex from medical samples and home garden soil of a patient in Chile is here in reported. Fungi of the Sporothrix schenckii complex can cause various infections. In Chile, the medical and environmental isolates of these this complex are rare. The aim of this study was to identify an unusual agent in a case of onychomycosis and to detect its presence in the patient's home garden. For this purpose, clinical samples were obtained by scraping the patient's subungueal first right toe nail as well as by taking soil samples from different areas of her home garden. Species identification was performed by morphophysiology and one of the strains isolated from the patient's toe nail was sent to CBS for molecular confirmation (14.062). S. pallida complex was identified both from the patient's toe nail and samples taken from her home garden. Copyright © 2014 Asociación Argentina de Microbiología. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  8. Satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental chemistry is one of the disciplines of Science. For the goal of the deep learning of the subject, it is indispensable to present perception and models of chemical behaviour explicitly. This can be accomplished by giving careful consideration to the development of concepts such that newer approaches are given ...

  9. Environmental modelling as an interface between policy and science

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaauboer, R.O.

    1991-01-01

    In this paper some recent developments in environmental modelling in the Netherlands are reviewed from a radiological background. An example is the growing interest in the integration of risk-analysis for exposures to ionizing radiation with that for chemicals and other environmental pollutants. Also since the Chernobyl accident the need of interdisciplinary cooperation, in order to obtain on-line predictive models is more strongly felt. For example atmospheric transport models for chemical pollutants are used for the modelling of the dispersion of radioactive material and vice versa models that were primarily meant for radiation protection purposes are used for other environmental pollutants such as dioxins. At the same time this tendency to integrate and/or couple compartmental models requires harmonization and has its own specific problems. Examples are the difficulties in handling uncertainties, validation, handling of large data bases, correlations between processes in various models and the differing methods and applications of the constituent models (deterministic, probabilistic, for normal or emergency situations etc.). It is thought that the radiological expertise can play an important role in some if not most of these trends in environmental modelling. (9 refs., 1 fig.)

  10. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Carabano, Maria-Jesus; Logar, Betka; Bormann, Jeanne; Minet, Julien; Vanrobays, ML; Diaz, Clara; Tychon, Bernard; Gengler, Nicolas; Hammami, Hedi

    2016-01-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across three European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Mi...

  11. Environmental Modeling Framework using Stacked Gaussian Processes

    OpenAIRE

    Abdelfatah, Kareem; Bao, Junshu; Terejanu, Gabriel

    2016-01-01

    A network of independently trained Gaussian processes (StackedGP) is introduced to obtain predictions of quantities of interest with quantified uncertainties. The main applications of the StackedGP framework are to integrate different datasets through model composition, enhance predictions of quantities of interest through a cascade of intermediate predictions, and to propagate uncertainties through emulated dynamical systems driven by uncertain forcing variables. By using analytical first an...

  12. Nostradamus 2014 prediction, modeling and analysis of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Suganthan, Ponnuthurai; Chen, Guanrong; Snasel, Vaclav; Abraham, Ajith; Rössler, Otto

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted ...

  13. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  14. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  15. Clear and fuzzy fractal models of spreading dangerous environmental phenomena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.E. Guy

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available  This article is devoted to investigation of possibility of widening models of spreading dangerous environmental phenomena, in particular Grassberger’s models, on the base of notion of fuzzy fractal sets introduced by one of the authors. Basic concepts from the theory of fuzzy fractals are considered.

  16. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  17. Integrating environmental component models. Development of a software framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, O.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated models consist of interacting component models that represent various natural and social systems. They are important tools to improve our understanding of environmental systems, to evaluate cause–effect relationships of human–natural interactions, and to forecast the behaviour of

  18. Photosynthetic complex stoichiometry dynamics in higher plants: environmental acclimation and photosynthetic flux control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Aurel Schöttler

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The composition of the photosynthetic apparatus of higher plants is dynamically adjusted to long-term changes in environmental conditions such as growth light intensity and light quality, and to changing metabolic demands for ATP and NADPH imposed by stresses and leaf ageing. By changing photosynthetic complex stoichiometry, a long-term imbalance between the photosynthetic production of ATP and NADPH and their metabolic consumption is avoided, and cytotoxic side reactions are minimized. Otherwise, an excess capacity of the light reactions, relative to the demands of primary metabolism, could result in a disturbance of cellular redox homeostasis and an increased production of reactive oxygen species, leading to the destruction of the photosynthetic apparatus and the initiation of cell death programs. In this review, changes of the abundances of the different constituents of the photosynthetic apparatus in response to environmental conditions and during leaf ontogenesis are summarized. The contributions of the different photosynthetic complexes to photosynthetic flux control and the regulation of electron transport are discussed.

  19. Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

    2010-01-01

    Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required

  20. Gene-Disease Network Analysis Reveals Functional Modules in Mendelian, Complex and Environmental Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer-Mehren, Anna; Bundschus, Markus; Rautschka, Michael; Mayer, Miguel A.; Sanz, Ferran; Furlong, Laura I.

    2011-01-01

    Background Scientists have been trying to understand the molecular mechanisms of diseases to design preventive and therapeutic strategies for a long time. For some diseases, it has become evident that it is not enough to obtain a catalogue of the disease-related genes but to uncover how disruptions of molecular networks in the cell give rise to disease phenotypes. Moreover, with the unprecedented wealth of information available, even obtaining such catalogue is extremely difficult. Principal Findings We developed a comprehensive gene-disease association database by integrating associations from several sources that cover different biomedical aspects of diseases. In particular, we focus on the current knowledge of human genetic diseases including mendelian, complex and environmental diseases. To assess the concept of modularity of human diseases, we performed a systematic study of the emergent properties of human gene-disease networks by means of network topology and functional annotation analysis. The results indicate a highly shared genetic origin of human diseases and show that for most diseases, including mendelian, complex and environmental diseases, functional modules exist. Moreover, a core set of biological pathways is found to be associated with most human diseases. We obtained similar results when studying clusters of diseases, suggesting that related diseases might arise due to dysfunction of common biological processes in the cell. Conclusions For the first time, we include mendelian, complex and environmental diseases in an integrated gene-disease association database and show that the concept of modularity applies for all of them. We furthermore provide a functional analysis of disease-related modules providing important new biological insights, which might not be discovered when considering each of the gene-disease association repositories independently. Hence, we present a suitable framework for the study of how genetic and environmental factors

  1. Gene-disease network analysis reveals functional modules in mendelian, complex and environmental diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Bauer-Mehren

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Scientists have been trying to understand the molecular mechanisms of diseases to design preventive and therapeutic strategies for a long time. For some diseases, it has become evident that it is not enough to obtain a catalogue of the disease-related genes but to uncover how disruptions of molecular networks in the cell give rise to disease phenotypes. Moreover, with the unprecedented wealth of information available, even obtaining such catalogue is extremely difficult. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a comprehensive gene-disease association database by integrating associations from several sources that cover different biomedical aspects of diseases. In particular, we focus on the current knowledge of human genetic diseases including mendelian, complex and environmental diseases. To assess the concept of modularity of human diseases, we performed a systematic study of the emergent properties of human gene-disease networks by means of network topology and functional annotation analysis. The results indicate a highly shared genetic origin of human diseases and show that for most diseases, including mendelian, complex and environmental diseases, functional modules exist. Moreover, a core set of biological pathways is found to be associated with most human diseases. We obtained similar results when studying clusters of diseases, suggesting that related diseases might arise due to dysfunction of common biological processes in the cell. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, we include mendelian, complex and environmental diseases in an integrated gene-disease association database and show that the concept of modularity applies for all of them. We furthermore provide a functional analysis of disease-related modules providing important new biological insights, which might not be discovered when considering each of the gene-disease association repositories independently. Hence, we present a suitable framework for the study of how genetic and

  2. On the dangers of model complexity without ecological justification in species distribution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    David M. Bell; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

    2016-01-01

    Although biogeographic patterns are the product of complex ecological processes, the increasing com-plexity of correlative species distribution models (SDMs) is not always motivated by ecological theory,but by model fit. The validity of model projections, such as shifts in a species’ climatic niche, becomesquestionable particularly during extrapolations, such as for...

  3. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    OpenAIRE

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas; Sara Ojeda-Benitez; Samantha E. Cruz-Sotelo; Juan Ramón Castro-Rodríguez

    2017-01-01

    The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (re...

  4. On the Complexity of Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonifay, Wes; Cai, Li

    2017-01-01

    Complexity in item response theory (IRT) has traditionally been quantified by simply counting the number of freely estimated parameters in the model. However, complexity is also contingent upon the functional form of the model. We examined four popular IRT models-exploratory factor analytic, bifactor, DINA, and DINO-with different functional forms but the same number of free parameters. In comparison, a simpler (unidimensional 3PL) model was specified such that it had 1 more parameter than the previous models. All models were then evaluated according to the minimum description length principle. Specifically, each model was fit to 1,000 data sets that were randomly and uniformly sampled from the complete data space and then assessed using global and item-level fit and diagnostic measures. The findings revealed that the factor analytic and bifactor models possess a strong tendency to fit any possible data. The unidimensional 3PL model displayed minimal fitting propensity, despite the fact that it included an additional free parameter. The DINA and DINO models did not demonstrate a proclivity to fit any possible data, but they did fit well to distinct data patterns. Applied researchers and psychometricians should therefore consider functional form-and not goodness-of-fit alone-when selecting an IRT model.

  5. Simplicity versus complexity in modelling groundwater recharge in Chalk catchments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Bradford

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Models of varying complexity are available to provide estimates of recharge in headwater Chalk catchments. Some measure of how estimates vary between different models can help guide the choice of model for a particular application. This paper compares recharge estimates derived from four models employing input data at varying spatial resolutions for a Chalk headwater catchment (River Pang, UK over a four-year period (1992-1995 that includes a range of climatic conditions. One model was validated against river flow data to provide a measure of their relative performance. Each model gave similar total recharge for the crucial winter recharge period when evaporation is low. However, the simple models produced relatively lower estimates of the summer and early autumn recharge due to the way in which processes governing recharge especially evaporation and infiltration are represented. The relative uniformity of land use, soil types and rainfall across headwater, drift-free Chalk catchments suggests that complex, distributed models offer limited benefits for recharge estimates at the catchment scale compared to simple models. Nonetheless, distributed models would be justified for studies where the pattern and amount of recharge need to be known in greater detail and to provide more reliable estimates of recharge during years with low rainfall. Keywords: Chalk, modelling, groundwater recharge

  6. Monitoring and Analysis of Environmental Gamma Dose Rate around Serpong Nuclear Complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.P. Susila

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available An environmental radiation monitoring system that continuously measures gamma dose rate around nuclear facilities is an important tool to present dose rate information to the public or authorities for radiological protection during both normal operation and radiological accidents. We have developed such a system that consists of six GM-based device for monitoring the environmental dose rate around Serpong Nuclear Complex. It has operated since 2010. In this study, a description of the system and analysis of measured data are presented. Analysis of the data for the last five years shows that the average dose rate levels were between 84-99 nSv/h which are still lower than terrestrial gamma radiation levels at several other locations in Indonesia. Time series analysis of the monitoring data demonstrates a good agreement between an increase in environmental gamma dose rate and the presence of iodine and argon in the air by in situ measurement. This result indicates that system is also effective for an early warning system in the case of radiological emergency.

  7. Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex environmental monitoring report for calendar year 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-05-01

    At the Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex all effluent streams are sampled regularly and analyzed to assess compliance with applicable environmental standards. Radioactivity is measured in air, water, fish, produce, soil, and sediments; and radiation doses to the public are calculated. The calculated public radiation doses from process effluents are within US Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental Protection Agency standards. An extensive amount of engineering effort is underway to modify existing airborne radioactivity emissions sources to further reduce emissions in compliance with DOE policy. Non-radioactive effluents either presently comply with federal standards or will comply upon completion of planned projects. CY-1984 was the fourth full year under the current National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit for liquid effluents, and the second year the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assumed responsibility for administering the NPDES program. Compliance with the permit's discharge limits, with the exception of violations due to the startup of two new wastewater treatment facilities, did not present any significant problems. Overall compliance was 94.7%

  8. Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex environmental monitoring report for calendar year 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    At the Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex all effluent streams are sampled regularly and analyzed to assess compliance with applicable environmental standards. Radioactivity is measured in air, water, fish, produce, soil, sediments and vegetation; and radiation doses to the public are calculated. The calculated public radiation doses from process effluents are within US Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental protection Agency (USEPA) standards. An extensive amount of engineering effort is underway to modify existing airborne radioactivity emissions sources to further reduce emissions in compliance with DOE policy. Non-radioactive effluents either presently comply with federal standards or will comply upon completion of planned projects. CY-1985 was the fifth full year under the current National Pullutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit for liquid effluents, and the third year since the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA) assumed responsibility for administering the NPDES program. Compliance with the permit's discharge limits, with the exception of violations due to the Coal Pile Treatment Facility and the Biodenitrification Plant for which projects to improve performance are currently underway, did not present any significant problems. Overall compliance was 95.5%. There was increased activity in the areas of groundwater monitoring, hazardous waste and PCB waste management to comply with Federal regulations

  9. Complexity, rhizome and magma, three key elements in pattern building in environmental research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguera de Echeverri, Ana Patricia

    2002-01-01

    The following reading synthesizes the rur-urban-agrary environmental research pattern that appear from the research Caldas Agrary Environmental Profile (IDEA, National University, Manizales - Colciencias, 1998 - 2000). This pattern is constructed from three ideas of the contemporary philosophy: complexity, rhizome and magma that comes from another disciplines: the mathematics, botanic, and geology. The genetics-historical method that follows this article, starts with a critical analysis to the relation forms between society and nature that belongs to the modernity, to do then, a presentation of the influence of the ecology in the construction of new relations between society and nature, culture and nature, and the influence of the theory of systems in a systemic view of society, culture, and nature. Finish with a presentation of the pattern ecosystem-culture made for Augusto Angel Maya and the critical-development that becomes form this pattern, that we had named rur-urban-agrary rhizoma. For example we show how this research pattern let us to amplify the methodology of river basins that we use inside the Agrary Environmental Profile

  10. Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex. [Construction and operation of proposed facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

    1982-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report.

  11. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  12. Physical and Chemical Environmental Abstraction Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowak, E.

    2000-01-01

    As directed by a written development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999a), Task 1, an overall conceptualization of the physical and chemical environment (P/CE) in the emplacement drift is documented in this Analysis/Model Report (AMR). Included are the physical components of the engineered barrier system (EBS). The intended use of this descriptive conceptualization is to assist the Performance Assessment Department (PAD) in modeling the physical and chemical environment within a repository drift. It is also intended to assist PAD in providing a more integrated and complete in-drift geochemical model abstraction and to answer the key technical issues raised in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Issue Resolution Status Report (IRSR) for the Evolution of the Near-Field Environment (NFE) Revision 2 (NRC 1999). EBS-related features, events, and processes (FEPs) have been assembled and discussed in ''EBS FEPs/Degradation Modes Abstraction'' (CRWMS M and O 2000a). Reference AMRs listed in Section 6 address FEPs that have not been screened out. This conceptualization does not directly address those FEPs. Additional tasks described in the written development plan are recommended for future work in Section 7.3. To achieve the stated purpose, the scope of this document includes: (1) the role of in-drift physical and chemical environments in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) (Section 6.1); (2) the configuration of engineered components (features) and critical locations in drifts (Sections 6.2.1 and 6.3, portions taken from EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction (CRWMS M and O 2000b)); (3) overview and critical locations of processes that can affect P/CE (Section 6.3); (4) couplings and relationships among features and processes in the drifts (Section 6.4); and (5) identities and uses of parameters transmitted to TSPA by some of the reference AMRs (Section 6.5). This AMR originally considered a design with backfill, and is now being updated (REV 00 ICN1) to address

  13. Reduced Complexity Channel Models for IMT-Advanced Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy and complexity are two crucial aspects of the applicability of a channel model for wideband multiple input multiple output (MIMO systems. For small number of antenna element pairs, correlation-based models have lower computational complexity while the geometry-based stochastic models (GBSMs can provide more accurate modeling of real radio propagation. This paper investigates several potential simplifications of the GBSM to reduce the complexity with minimal impact on accuracy. In addition, we develop a set of broadband metrics which enable a thorough investigation of the differences between the GBSMs and the simplified models. The impact of various random variables which are employed by the original GBSM on the system level simulation are also studied. Both simulation results and a measurement campaign show that complexity can be reduced significantly with a negligible loss of accuracy in the proposed metrics. As an example, in the presented scenarios, the computational time can be reduced by up to 57% while keeping the relative deviation of 5% outage capacity within 5%.

  14. Contextual interactions in a generalized energy model of complex cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dellen, Babette K; Clark, John W; Wessel, Ralf

    2009-01-01

    We propose a generalized energy model of complex cells to describe modulatory contextual influences on the responses of neurons in the primary visual cortex (V1). Many orientation-selective cells in V1 respond to contrast of orientation and motion of stimuli exciting the classical receptive field (CRF) and the non-CRF, or surround. In the proposed model, a central spatiotemporal filter, defining the CRF, is nonlinearly combined with a spatiotemporal filter extending into the non-CRF. These filters are assumed to describe simple-cell responses, while the nonlinear combination of their responses describes the responses of complex cells. This mathematical operation accounts for the inherent nonlinearity of complex cells, such as phase independence and frequency doubling, and for nonlinear interactions between stimuli in the CRF and surround of the cell, including sensitivity to feature contrast. If only the CRF of the generalized complex cell is stimulated by a drifting grating, the model reduces to the standard energy model. The theoretical predictions of the model are supported by computer simulations and compared with experimental data from V1.

  15. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2017-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in

  16. Assessing and managing health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    There is a growing awareness that it is necessary to identify, assess, and manage the risks of energy and other complex industrial activities in order to minimize their potential to harm public health and the environment. Therefore, quantitative risk analysis with emphasis on risk management has become an important aspect in high level decision making for regulation in developed and developing countries. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have initiated a project to promote the use of risk assessment and risk management in environmental health and safety decision making throughout the world. A meeting was held in Paris, France on October 13-17, 1986. The purpose of the meeting was to: a) Discuss the state of the art of national and international experience in conducting case studies in the field of assessing and managing industrial risks from energy and other complex industrial systems either at the plant level or in highly industrialized areas within a country; b) Present and discuss planned regional risk management case studies within a country or international research projects on risk management to be implemented in the future; and c) Review the Project Document on ''Assessing, Controlling, and Managing Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems''. The full texts, together with abstracts, of the papers given at the meeting are presented. The summary reviews briefly some of the major points that arose in papers or in the ensuing discussions. Where a consensus view resulted, conclusions were drawn. Major differences of opinion are also noted

  17. Febrile illness diagnostics and the malaria-industrial complex: a socio-environmental perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoler, Justin; Awandare, Gordon A

    2016-11-17

    Global prioritization of single-disease eradication programs over improvements to basic diagnostic capacity in the Global South have left the world unprepared for epidemics of chikungunya, Ebola, Zika, and whatever lies on the horizon. The medical establishment is slowly realizing that in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), particularly urban areas, up to a third of patients suffering from acute fever do not receive a correct diagnosis of their infection. Malaria is the most common diagnosis for febrile patients in low-resource health care settings, and malaria misdiagnosis has soared due to the institutionalization of malaria as the primary febrile illness of SSA by international development organizations and national malaria control programs. This has inadvertently created a "malaria-industrial complex" and historically obstructed our complete understanding of the continent's complex communicable disease epidemiology, which is currently dominated by a mélange of undiagnosed febrile illnesses. We synthesize interdisciplinary literature from Ghana to highlight the complexity of communicable disease care in SSA from biomedical, social, and environmental perspectives, and suggest a way forward. A socio-environmental approach to acute febrile illness etiology, diagnostics, and management would lead to substantial health gains in Africa, including more efficient malaria control. Such an approach would also improve global preparedness for future epidemics of emerging pathogens such as chikungunya, Ebola, and Zika, all of which originated in SSA with limited baseline understanding of their epidemiology despite clinical recognition of these viruses for many decades. Impending ACT resistance, new vaccine delays, and climate change all beckon our attention to proper diagnosis of fevers in order to maximize limited health care resources.

  18. Efficient Methods for Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis and Global Optimization of Computationally Expensive Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoemaker, Christine; Espinet, Antoine; Pang, Min

    2015-04-01

    Models of complex environmental systems can be computationally expensive in order to describe the dynamic interactions of the many components over a sizeable time period. Diagnostics of these systems can include forward simulations of calibrated models under uncertainty and analysis of alternatives of systems management. This discussion will focus on applications of new surrogate optimization and uncertainty analysis methods to environmental models that can enhance our ability to extract information and understanding. For complex models, optimization and especially uncertainty analysis can require a large number of model simulations, which is not feasible for computationally expensive models. Surrogate response surfaces can be used in Global Optimization and Uncertainty methods to obtain accurate answers with far fewer model evaluations, which made the methods practical for computationally expensive models for which conventional methods are not feasible. In this paper we will discuss the application of the SOARS surrogate method for estimating Bayesian posterior density functions for model parameters for a TOUGH2 model of geologic carbon sequestration. We will also briefly discuss new parallel surrogate global optimization algorithm applied to two groundwater remediation sites that was implemented on a supercomputer with up to 64 processors. The applications will illustrate the use of these methods to predict the impact of monitoring and management on subsurface contaminants.

  19. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-01-01

    Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations

  2. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  3. Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

  4. Modeling data irregularities and structural complexities in data envelopment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Joe

    2007-01-01

    In a relatively short period of time, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful quantitative, analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. It has been successfully applied to a whole variety of problems in many different contexts worldwide. This book deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in modeling DEA problems. DEA's use has grown with its capability of dealing with complex "service industry" and the "public service domain" types of problems that require modeling of both qualitative and quantitative data. This handbook treatment deals with specific data problems including: imprecise or inaccurate data; missing data; qualitative data; outliers; undesirable outputs; quality data; statistical analysis; software and other data aspects of modeling complex DEA problems. In addition, the book will demonstrate how to visualize DEA results when the data is more than 3-dimensional, and how to identify efficiency units quickly and accurately.

  5. Teletandem as a complex learning environment: Looking for a model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annick Rivens MOMPEAN

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This article presents a model of teletandem, i.e. tandem through desktop videoconferencing (Telles 2009. The aim of such a model is twofold: heuristic and pedagogical. It is heuristic because it enables us to understand teletandem at all its levels and partially to predict (in probabilistic terms what can happen in a teletandem environment. It is also pedagogical because it helps us formulate plans of action to improve future use and environment design. To build this model, we have drawn upon complexity theory (Larsen-Freeman & Cameron 2008, Morin 1990, which leads us to distinguish different levels of analysis before discussing the relationship between the different elements and levels leading to the complex final (yet dynamic model.

  6. Enhancing metaproteomics-The value of models and defined environmental microbial systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbst, Florian-Alexander [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Lünsmann, Vanessa [Department of Proteomics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Department of Environmental Biotechnology, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Kjeldal, Henrik [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Jehmlich, Nico [Department of Proteomics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Tholey, Andreas [Systematic Proteome Research and Bioanalytics, Institute for Experimental Medicine, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel Germany; von Bergen, Martin [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Department of Proteomics, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Leipzig Germany; Nielsen, Jeppe Lund [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark; Hettich, Robert L. [Chemical Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge TN USA; Seifert, Jana [Institute of Animal Science, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart Germany; Nielsen, Per Halkjaer [Department of Chemistry and Bioscience, Center for Microbial Communities, Aalborg University, Aalborg Denmark

    2016-01-21

    Metaproteomics - the large-scale characterization of the entire protein complement of environmental microbiota at a given point in time - added unique features and possibilities to study environmental microbial communities and to unravel these “black boxes”. New technical challenges arose which were not an issue for classical proteome analytics before and choosing the appropriate model system applicable to the research question can be difficult. Here, we reviewed different model systems for metaproteome analysis. Following a short introduction to microbial communities and systems, we discussed the most used systems ranging from technical systems over rhizospheric models to systems for the medical field. This includes acid mine drainage, anaerobic digesters, activated sludge, planted fixed bed reactors, gastrointestinal simulators and in vivo models. Model systems are useful to evaluate the challenges encountered within (but not limited to) metaproteomics, including species complexity and coverage, biomass availability or reliable protein extraction. The implementation of model systems can be considered as a step forward to better understand microbial responses and ecological distribution of member organisms. In the future, novel improvements are necessary to fully engage complex environmental systems.

  7. Modelling, Estimation and Control of Networked Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chiuso, Alessandro; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro; Schenato, Luca; Zampieri, Sandro

    2009-01-01

    The paradigm of complexity is pervading both science and engineering, leading to the emergence of novel approaches oriented at the development of a systemic view of the phenomena under study; the definition of powerful tools for modelling, estimation, and control; and the cross-fertilization of different disciplines and approaches. This book is devoted to networked systems which are one of the most promising paradigms of complexity. It is demonstrated that complex, dynamical networks are powerful tools to model, estimate, and control many interesting phenomena, like agent coordination, synchronization, social and economics events, networks of critical infrastructures, resources allocation, information processing, or control over communication networks. Moreover, it is shown how the recent technological advances in wireless communication and decreasing in cost and size of electronic devices are promoting the appearance of large inexpensive interconnected systems, each with computational, sensing and mobile cap...

  8. The evolution of the Dogger Bank, North Sea: A complex history of terrestrial, glacial and marine environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterill, Carol J.; Phillips, Emrys; James, Leo; Forsberg, Carl Fredrik; Tjelta, Tor Inge; Carter, Gareth; Dove, Dayton

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results of a detailed multidisciplinary study of the near surface geology of the Dogger Bank in the southern central North Sea, forming part of a site investigation for a major windfarm development undertaken by the Forewind consortium. It has revealed that the Dogger Bank is internally complex rather than comprising a simple ;layer cake; of the Quaternary sediments as previously thought. Regional and high-resolution seismic surveys have enabled a revised stratigraphic framework to be established for the upper part of this sequence which comprises the Eem (oldest), Dogger Bank, Bolders Bank formations and Botney Cut Formation (youngest), overlain by a typically thin Holocene sequence. Detailed mapping of key horizons identified on the high-resolution seismic profiles has led to the recognition of a series of buried palaeo-landsystems which are characterised by a range of features including; glacial, glacifluvial and fluvial channels, a large-scale glacitectonic thrust-moraine complex with intervening ice-marginal basins, a lacustrine basin and marine ravinement surfaces. Interpretation of these buried landscapes has enabled the development of an environmental change model to explain the evolution of the Dogger Bank. This evolution was driven by the complex interplay between climate change, ice sheet dynamics and sea level change associated with the growth and subsequent demise of the British and Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets during the Weichselian glaciation. Following the decay of these ice sheets the Dogger Bank entered a period of significant climatic and environmental flux which saw a terrestrial landscape being progressively inundated as sea levels rose during the Holocene.

  9. Hydrologic analyses in support of the Navajo Generating Station–Kayenta Mine Complex environmental impact statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leake, Stanley A.; Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-06-01

    IntroductionThe U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region (Reclamation) is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) for the Navajo Generating Station-Kayenta Mine Complex Project (NGS-KMC Project). The proposed project involves various Federal approvals that would facilitate continued operation of the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) from December 23, 2019 through 2044, and continued operation of the Kayenta Mine and support facilities (collectively called the Kayenta Mine Complex, or KMC) to supply coal to the NGS for this operational period. The EIS will consider several project alternatives that are likely to produce different effects on the Navajo (N) aquifer; the N aquifer is the principal water resource in the Black Mesa area used by the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, and Peabody Western Coal Company (PWCC).The N aquifer is composed of three hydraulically connected formations—the Navajo Sandstone, the Kayenta Formation, and the Lukachukai Member of the Wingate Sandstone—that function as a single aquifer. The N aquifer is confined under most of Black Mesa, and the overlying stratigraphy limits recharge to this part of the aquifer. The N aquifer is unconfined in areas surrounding Black Mesa, and most recharge occurs where the Navajo Sandstone is exposed in the area near Shonto, Arizona. Overlying the N aquifer is the D aquifer, which includes the Dakota Sandstone, Morrison Formation, Entrada Sandstone, and Carmel Formation. The aquifer is named for the Dakota Sandstone, which is the primary water-bearing unit.The NGS is located near Page, Arizona on the Navajo Nation. The KMC, which delivers coal to NGS by way of a dedicated electric railroad, is located approximately 83 miles southeast of NGS (about 125 miles northeast of Flagstaff, Arizona). The Kayenta Mine permit area is located on about 44,073 acres of land leased within the boundaries of the Hopi and Navajo Indian Reservations. KMC has been conducting mining and

  10. Assessing Complexity in Learning Outcomes--A Comparison between the SOLO Taxonomy and the Model of Hierarchical Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stålne, Kristian; Kjellström, Sofia; Utriainen, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    An important aspect of higher education is to educate students who can manage complex relationships and solve complex problems. Teachers need to be able to evaluate course content with regard to complexity, as well as evaluate students' ability to assimilate complex content and express it in the form of a learning outcome. One model for evaluating…

  11. Modeling the Propagation of Mobile Phone Virus under Complex Network

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Wei; Wei, Xi-liang; Guo, Hao; An, Gang; Guo, Lei; Yao, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Mobile phone virus is a rogue program written to propagate from one phone to another, which can take control of a mobile device by exploiting its vulnerabilities. In this paper the propagation model of mobile phone virus is tackled to understand how particular factors can affect its propagation and design effective containment strategies to suppress mobile phone virus. Two different propagation models of mobile phone viruses under the complex network are proposed in this paper. One is intende...

  12. Contextual interactions in a generalized energy model of complex cells

    OpenAIRE

    Dellen, Babette; Clark, John W.; Wessel, Ralf

    2009-01-01

    We propose a generalized energy model of complex cells to describe modulatory contextual influences on the responses of neurons in the primary visual cortex (V1). Many orientationselective cells in V1 respond to contrast of orientation and motion of stimuli exciting the classical receptive field (CRF) and the non-CRF, or surround. In the proposed model, a central spatiotemporal filter, defining the CRF, is nonlinearly combined with a spatiotemporal filter extending into the non- ...

  13. Modeling complex diffusion mechanisms in L12-structured compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zacate, M. O.; Lape, M.; Stufflebeam, M.; Evenson, W. E.

    2010-01-01

    We report on a procedure developed to create stochastic models of hyperfine interactions for complex diffusion mechanisms and demonstrate its application to simulate perturbed angular correlation spectra for the divacancy and 6-jump cycle diffusion mechanisms in L1 2 -structured compounds.

  14. Modeling complex diffusion mechanisms in L1 2 -structured compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zacate, M. O.; Lape, M.; Stufflebeam, M.; Evenson, W. E.

    2010-04-01

    We report on a procedure developed to create stochastic models of hyperfine interactions for complex diffusion mechanisms and demonstrate its application to simulate perturbed angular correlation spectra for the divacancy and 6-jump cycle diffusion mechanisms in L12-structured compounds.

  15. Surface-complexation modelling for describing adsorption of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-06-08

    Jun 8, 2013 ... Adsorption of dissolved phosphate onto synthetic hydrous ferric oxide (HFO) was measured in the laboratory as a function of pH, ionic strength, and phosphate relative concentration. Experimental data were used to constrain optimal values of surface complexation reactions using a geochemical modeling ...

  16. Surface complexation modeling of americium sorption onto volcanic tuff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, M; Kelkar, S; Meijer, A

    2014-10-01

    Results of a surface complexation model (SCM) for americium sorption on volcanic rocks (devitrified and zeolitic tuff) are presented. The model was developed using PHREEQC and based on laboratory data for americium sorption on quartz. Available data for sorption of americium on quartz as a function of pH in dilute groundwater can be modeled with two surface reactions involving an americium sulfate and an americium carbonate complex. It was assumed in applying the model to volcanic rocks from Yucca Mountain, that the surface properties of volcanic rocks can be represented by a quartz surface. Using groundwaters compositionally representative of Yucca Mountain, americium sorption distribution coefficient (Kd, L/Kg) values were calculated as function of pH. These Kd values are close to the experimentally determined Kd values for americium sorption on volcanic rocks, decreasing with increasing pH in the pH range from 7 to 9. The surface complexation constants, derived in this study, allow prediction of sorption of americium in a natural complex system, taking into account the inherent uncertainty associated with geochemical conditions that occur along transport pathways. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Model-based safety architecture framework for complex systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuitemaker, Katja; Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Braakhuis, J.G.; Podofillini, Luca; Sudret, Bruno; Stojadinovic, Bozidar; Zio, Enrico; Kröger, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    The shift to transparency and rising need of the general public for safety, together with the increasing complexity and interdisciplinarity of modern safety-critical Systems of Systems (SoS) have resulted in a Model-Based Safety Architecture Framework (MBSAF) for capturing and sharing architectural

  18. PROGRAM COMPLEX FOR MODELING OF THE DETAILS HARDENING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Kundas

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article there is presented the program complex ThermoSim, consisting of preprocessor, processor and postprocessor and intended for modeling (analysis of thermalphysic processes and characteristics of details of instrument-making and machine-building, diagnostics and optimization of technological processes of heat treatment and details constructions without using the destructive control methods.

  19. Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

  20. Modelling the transition from simple to complex Ca oscillations in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-04-29

    Apr 29, 2014 ... 2Department of Mathematics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand. *Corresponding author (Fax, +91-755-2670562; Email, mannumanhas@gmail.com). A mathematical model is proposed which systematically investigates complex calcium oscillations in pancreatic.

  1. A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of unmet need for family planning among all women aged (15-49) in Ethiopia. ... Conclusion: The key determinants of unmet need family planning in Ethiopia were residence, age, marital-status, education, household members, birth-events and number of ...

  2. On the general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Shanyu.

    1987-12-01

    In this paper, the principle of a general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems, i.e. the Adaptive Superposition Procedure (ASP) is shortly stated. The result of application of ASP in a national project for ecological regionalization is also described. (author). 3 refs

  3. Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2012-01-01

    Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

  4. Constructive Lower Bounds on Model Complexity of Shallow Perceptron Networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 7 (2018), s. 305-315 ISSN 0941-0643 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-18108S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow and deep networks * model complexity and sparsity * signum perceptron networks * finite mappings * variational norms * Hadamard matrices Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 2.505, year: 2016

  5. Modelling and simulating in-stent restenosis with complex automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, A.G.; Lawford, P.; Hose, R.

    2010-01-01

    In-stent restenosis, the maladaptive response of a blood vessel to injury caused by the deployment of a stent, is a multiscale system involving a large number of biological and physical processes. We describe a Complex Automata Model for in-stent restenosis, coupling bulk flow, drug diffusion, and

  6. An Environmental Management Model of Thermal Waters in Entre Ríos Province, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pablo, Mársico Daniel; Luís, Díaz Eduardo; Ivana, Zecca; Oscar, Dallacosta; Antonio, Paz-González

    2015-04-01

    Deep exploratory drillings, i.e. those with more than 500 meters depth, have been performed in the Entre Ríos province, Argentina, in order to ascertain the presence of thermal water. Drilling began in 1994, and until now there have been 18 polls with very variable results in terms of mineralization, resource flow, and temperature. The aim of this study was to present a management model, which should allow operators of thermal complexes to further develop procedures for safeguarding the biodiversity of the ecosystems involved, both during exploration and exploitation activities. The environmental management Plan proposed is constituted by a set of technical procedures that are formulated and should be performed during the stages of exploration and exploitation of the resource, and consists of: environmental monitoring, environmental audit, public information and contingency programs. This Plan describes the measures and proposals aimed at protecting environmental quality in the area of influence of a thermal complex project, ensuring that its execution remains environmentally responsibly, and allowing implementation of specific actions to prevent or correct environmental impacts, as predicted in the evaluation of the Environmental Program. The audit of environmental impact includes and takes into account natural factors, such as water, soil, atmosphere, flora and fauna, and also cultural factors. The technical audit Plan was prepared in order to get a systematic structure and organization of the verification process, and also with regard to document the degree of implementation of the proposed mitigation measures. Finally, an environmental contingency program was implemented, and its objective was to consider the safeguarding of life and its natural environment. Thus, a guide has been developed with the main actions to be taken on a contingency, since forecast increases the efficiency of the response. The methodology developed here was adopted as the procedure

  7. A system for environmental protection. Reference dose models for fauna and flora

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pentreath, R.J.; Woodhead, D.S.

    2000-01-01

    Ideas have already been published on how the current problems relating to environmental protection could be explicitly addressed. One of the basic cornerstones of the proposed system is that of the use of reference dose models for fauna and flora, in a manner analogous to those used for the human species. The concept is that, for a number of both aquatic and terrestrial fauna and flora types, 'reference' dose models, and dose per unit (internal and external) exposure tables, could be compiled. These would then be used to draw broad conclusions on the likely effects for such organisms in relation to three broad environment end points of concern: life shortening; impairment of reproductive capacity; and scorable, cytogenetic damage. The level of complexity of the dose models needs to be commensurate with the morphological complexity of the modelled organism, its size, and the data bases which are either available or could be reasonably obtained. The most basic models considered are either solid ellipsoids or spheres, with fixed dimensions. Secondary models contain internal, but relatively simple geometric features representative of those key organs or tissues for which more precise estimates of dose are required. Their level of complexity is also a function of different internal and external sources of radiation, and expected differences in radiosensitivities. Tertiary models -of greater complexity- are only considered to be of value for higher vertebrates. The potential derivation and use of all three sets of models is briefly discussed. (author)

  8. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  9. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  10. Computational modelling of variably saturated flow in porous media with complex three-dimensional geometries

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, D.; Cross, M.; Croft, N.; Bennett, C.; Gebhardt, J.

    2006-03-01

    A computational procedure is presented for solving complex variably saturated flows in porous media, that may easily be implemented into existing conventional finite-volume-based computational fluid dynamics codes, so that their functionality might be geared upon to readily enable the modelling of a complex suite of interacting fluid, thermal and chemical reaction process physics. This procedure has been integrated within a multi-physics finite volume unstructured mesh framework, allowing arbitrarily complex three-dimensional geometries to be modelled. The model is particularly targeted at ore heap-leaching processes, which encounter complex flow problems, such as infiltration into dry soil, drainage, perched water tables and flow through heterogeneous materials, but is equally applicable to any process involving flow through porous media, such as in environmental recovery processes. The computational procedure is based on the mixed form of the classical Richards equation, employing an adaptive transformed mixed algorithm that is numerically robust and significantly reduces compute (or CPU) time. The computational procedure is accurate (compares well with other methods and analytical data), comprehensive (representing any kind of porous flow model), and is computationally efficient. As such, this procedure provides a suitable basis for the implementation of large-scale industrial heap-leach models.

  11. Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, William H

    2017-10-01

    Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

  12. Application of computer simulated persons in indoor environmental modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topp, C.; Nielsen, P. V.; Sørensen, Dan Nørtoft

    2002-01-01

    Computer simulated persons are often applied when the indoor environment is modeled by computational fluid dynamics. The computer simulated persons differ in size, shape, and level of geometrical complexity, ranging from simple box or cylinder shaped heat sources to more humanlike models. Little...

  13. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  14. Advancing environmentally explicit structured population models of plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrlén, Johan; Morris, William; von Euler, Tove

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between the performance of individuals and the surrounding environment is fundamental in ecology and evolutionary biology. Assessing how abiotic and biotic environmental factors influence demographic processes is necessary to understand and predict population dynamics, as well...... as species distributions and abundances. We searched the literature for studies that have linked abiotic and biotic environmental factors to vital rates and, using structured demographic models, population growth rates of plants. We found 136 studies that had examined the environmental drivers of plant...... demography. The number of studies has been increasing rapidly in recent years. Based on the reviewed studies, we identify and discuss several major gaps in our knowledge of environmentally driven demography of plants. We argue that some drivers may have been underexplored and that the full potential...

  15. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  16. A risk computation model for environmental restoration activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Droppo, J.B. Jr.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    A risk computation model useful in environmental restoration activities was developed for the US Department of Energy (DOE). This model, the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), can be used to evaluate effects of potential exposures over a broad range of regulatory issues including radioactive carcinogenic, nonradioactive carcinogenic, and noncarcinogenic effects. MEPAS integrates risk computation components. Release, transport, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and uptake computations are linked in a single system for evaluation of air, surface water, ground water, and overland flow transport. MEPAS uses standard computation approaches. Whenever available and appropriate, US Environmental Protection Agency guidance and models were used to facilitate compatibility and acceptance. MEPAS is a computational tool that can be used at several phases of an environmental restoration effort. At a preliminary stage in problem characterization, potential problems can be prioritized. As more data become available, MEPAS can provide an estimate of baseline risks or evaluate environmental monitoring data. In the feasibility stage, MEPAS can compute risk from alternative remedies. However, MEPAS is not designed to replace a detailed risk assessment of the selected remedy. For major problems, it will be appropriate to use a more detailed, risk computation tool for a detailed, site-specific evaluation of the selected remedy. 15 refs., 2 figs.

  17. Higher genus correlators for the complex matrix model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambjorn, J.; Kristhansen, C.F.; Makeenko, Y.M.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, the authors describe an iterative scheme which allows us to calculate any multi-loop correlator for the complex matrix model to any genus using only the first in the chain of loop equations. The method works for a completely general potential and the results contain no explicit reference to the couplings. The genus g contribution to the m-loop correlator depends on a finite number of parameters, namely at most 4g - 2 + m. The authors find the generating functional explicitly up to genus three. The authors show as well that the model is equivalent to an external field problem for the complex matrix model with a logarithmic potential

  18. SIRaRu rumor spreading model in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiajia; Zhao, Laijun; Huang, Rongbing

    2014-03-01

    Compared with the epidemic spreading, rumor spreading has some specific characteristics. In this paper, we supplement some realistic conditions on previous rumor spreading models, then develop a new rumor spreading model called SIRaRu model. The mean-field equations are derived to describe the dynamics of the SIRaRu rumor spreading in complex networks, associated with which the steady-state analysis is carried out, indicating the spreading threshold existing in both homogeneous networks and inhomogeneous networks. Meanwhile, we discuss the rumor immunization strategy and obtain the immunization threshold and spreading thresholds in homogeneous and inhomogeneous networks, respectively. Numerical simulations are conducted in complex networks, showing that the network topology exerts significant influence on the rumor spreading. The final size of the rumor is greatly impacted by the forgetting rate.

  19. Reduced Complexity Volterra Models for Nonlinear System Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hacıoğlu Rıfat

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A broad class of nonlinear systems and filters can be modeled by the Volterra series representation. However, its practical use in nonlinear system identification is sometimes limited due to the large number of parameters associated with the Volterra filter′s structure. The parametric complexity also complicates design procedures based upon such a model. This limitation for system identification is addressed in this paper using a Fixed Pole Expansion Technique (FPET within the Volterra model structure. The FPET approach employs orthonormal basis functions derived from fixed (real or complex pole locations to expand the Volterra kernels and reduce the number of estimated parameters. That the performance of FPET can considerably reduce the number of estimated parameters is demonstrated by a digital satellite channel example in which we use the proposed method to identify the channel dynamics. Furthermore, a gradient-descent procedure that adaptively selects the pole locations in the FPET structure is developed in the paper.

  20. Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

    2014-12-19

    The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.

  1. BlenX-based compositional modeling of complex reaction mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judit Zámborszky

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Molecular interactions are wired in a fascinating way resulting in complex behavior of biological systems. Theoretical modeling provides a useful framework for understanding the dynamics and the function of such networks. The complexity of the biological networks calls for conceptual tools that manage the combinatorial explosion of the set of possible interactions. A suitable conceptual tool to attack complexity is compositionality, already successfully used in the process algebra field to model computer systems. We rely on the BlenX programming language, originated by the beta-binders process calculus, to specify and simulate high-level descriptions of biological circuits. The Gillespie's stochastic framework of BlenX requires the decomposition of phenomenological functions into basic elementary reactions. Systematic unpacking of complex reaction mechanisms into BlenX templates is shown in this study. The estimation/derivation of missing parameters and the challenges emerging from compositional model building in stochastic process algebras are discussed. A biological example on circadian clock is presented as a case study of BlenX compositionality.

  2. Complex Behavior in Simple Models of Biological Coevolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rikvold, Per Arne

    We explore the complex dynamical behavior of simple predator-prey models of biological coevolution that account for interspecific and intraspecific competition for resources, as well as adaptive foraging behavior. In long kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of these models we find quite robust 1/f-like noise in species diversity and population sizes, as well as power-law distributions for the lifetimes of individual species and the durations of quiet periods of relative evolutionary stasis. In one model, based on the Holling Type II functional response, adaptive foraging produces a metastable low-diversity phase and a stable high-diversity phase.

  3. Febrile illness diagnostics and the malaria-industrial complex: a socio-environmental perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Stoler

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global prioritization of single-disease eradication programs over improvements to basic diagnostic capacity in the Global South have left the world unprepared for epidemics of chikungunya, Ebola, Zika, and whatever lies on the horizon. The medical establishment is slowly realizing that in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, particularly urban areas, up to a third of patients suffering from acute fever do not receive a correct diagnosis of their infection. Main body Malaria is the most common diagnosis for febrile patients in low-resource health care settings, and malaria misdiagnosis has soared due to the institutionalization of malaria as the primary febrile illness of SSA by international development organizations and national malaria control programs. This has inadvertently created a “malaria-industrial complex” and historically obstructed our complete understanding of the continent’s complex communicable disease epidemiology, which is currently dominated by a mélange of undiagnosed febrile illnesses. We synthesize interdisciplinary literature from Ghana to highlight the complexity of communicable disease care in SSA from biomedical, social, and environmental perspectives, and suggest a way forward. Conclusion A socio-environmental approach to acute febrile illness etiology, diagnostics, and management would lead to substantial health gains in Africa, including more efficient malaria control. Such an approach would also improve global preparedness for future epidemics of emerging pathogens such as chikungunya, Ebola, and Zika, all of which originated in SSA with limited baseline understanding of their epidemiology despite clinical recognition of these viruses for many decades. Impending ACT resistance, new vaccine delays, and climate change all beckon our attention to proper diagnosis of fevers in order to maximize limited health care resources.

  4. Molecular typing of environmental Cryptococcus neoformans/C. gattii species complex isolates from Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Gleica Soyan Barbosa; Freire, Ana Karla Lima; Bentes, Amaury Dos Santos; Pinheiro, José Felipe de Souza; de Souza, João Vicente Braga; Wanke, Bodo; Matsuura, Takeshi; Jackisch-Matsuura, Ani Beatriz

    2016-08-01

    Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii are the main causative agents of cryptococcosis, a systemic fungal disease that affects internal organs and skin, and which is acquired by inhalation of spores or encapsulated yeasts. It is currently known that the C. neoformans/C. gattii species complex has a worldwide distribution, however, some molecular types seem to prevail in certain regions. Few environmental studies of Cryptococcus have been conducted in the Brazilian Amazon. This is the first ecological study of the pathogenic fungi C. neoformans/C. gattii species complex in the urban area of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. A total of 506 samples from pigeon droppings (n = 191), captive bird droppings (n = 60) and tree hollows (n = 255) were collected from June 2012 to January 2014 at schools and public buildings, squares, pet shops, households, the zoo and the bus station. Samples were plated on niger seed agar (NSA) medium supplemented with chloramphenicol and incubated at 25°C for 5 days. Dark-brown colonies were isolated and tested for thermotolerance at 37°C, cycloheximide resistance and growth on canavanine-glycine-bromothymol blue agar. Molecular typing was done by PCR-RFLP. Susceptibility to the antifungal drugs amphotericin B, fluconazole, itraconazole and ketoconazole was tested using Etest(®) strips. In total, 13 positive samples were obtained: one tree hollow (C. gattiiVGII), nine pigeon droppings (C. neoformansVNI) and three captive bird droppings (C. neoformansVNI). The environmental cryptococcal isolates found in this study were of the same molecular types as those responsible for infections in Manaus. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  5. Modelling and simulation of gas explosions in complex geometries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saeter, Olav

    1998-12-31

    This thesis presents a three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code (EXSIM94) for modelling and simulation of gas explosions in complex geometries. It gives the theory and validates the following sub-models : (1) the flow resistance and turbulence generation model for densely packed regions, (2) the flow resistance and turbulence generation model for single objects, and (3) the quasi-laminar combustion model. It is found that a simple model for flow resistance and turbulence generation in densely packed beds is able to reproduce the medium and large scale MERGE explosion experiments of the Commission of European Communities (CEC) within a band of factor 2. The model for a single representation is found to predict explosion pressure in better agreement with the experiments with a modified k-{epsilon} model. This modification also gives a slightly improved grid independence for realistic gas explosion approaches. One laminar model is found unsuitable for gas explosion modelling because of strong grid dependence. Another laminar model is found to be relatively grid independent and to work well in harmony with the turbulent combustion model. The code is validated against 40 realistic gas explosion experiments. It is relatively grid independent in predicting explosion pressure in different offshore geometries. It can predict the influence of ignition point location, vent arrangements, different geometries, scaling effects and gas reactivity. The validation study concludes with statistical and uncertainty analyses of the code performance. 98 refs., 96 figs, 12 tabs.

  6. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Accuracy Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, F.; Pianosi, F.; Hartmann, A. J.; Wagener, T.

    2014-12-01

    Sensitivity analysis aims to characterize the impact that changes in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). It is a valuable diagnostic tool for model understanding and for model improvement, it enhances calibration efficiency, and it supports uncertainty and scenario analysis. It is of particular interest for environmental models because they are often complex, non-linear, non-monotonic and exhibit strong interactions between their parameters. However, sensitivity analysis has to be carefully implemented to produce reliable results at moderate computational cost. For example, sample size can have a strong impact on the results and has to be carefully chosen. Yet, there is little guidance available for this step in environmental modelling. The objective of the present study is to provide guidelines for a robust sensitivity analysis, in order to support modellers in making appropriate choices for its implementation and in interpreting its outcome. We considered hydrological models with increasing level of complexity. We tested four sensitivity analysis methods, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, Method of Morris, a density-based (PAWN) and a variance-based (Sobol) method. The convergence and variability of sensitivity indices were investigated. We used bootstrapping to assess and improve the robustness of sensitivity indices even for limited sample sizes. Finally, we propose a quantitative validation approach for sensitivity analysis based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistics.

  7. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  8. Characteristics of environmental pollution related with public complaints in an industrial shipbuilding complex, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Jae-Woo; Lee, Myoung-Eun; Lee, Hyeon-Don

    2011-06-01

    The shipbuilding industry of Korea, ranked number one in the world in annual amount of ship orders, has contributed to national economic growth; however, this has resulted in various environmental problems. Characteristics of environmental pollution, such as particulate matters, odor, and noise, which are closely related with public complaints, were evaluated in an industrial shipbuilding complex. The concentrations of PM-10 and TSP were significantly affected by the distance between the measurement site and shipbuilding workplace, as well as the height of the measurement site. Average PM-10 concentrations in the residential area ranged from 40.10 to 44.10 μg/m(3), which were not high in comparison with the ambient air quality standard and those of major cities in Korea. Paint particles could affect a wider area than typical particulate matters due to their generation and transport properties. The properties of odor in the study area were widely affected by the work intensity in shipyards and the temperature. Twenty-five out of total 54 samples collected in the residential area exceeded the dilution factor of 10, which is the tolerable limit adopted in Korea. Noise had an influence on a limited area due to the extinction effect with distance from the shipyards, while severe noise levels higher than 90 dB(A) were frequently found inside the shipyards.

  9. The determination of arsenic, selenium, antimony, and tin in complex environmental samples by hydride generation AAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, D.; Beach, C.

    1990-01-01

    Hydride generation techniques are used routinely for the determination of As, Se, Sb and Sn in water samples. Advantages include high sensitivity, simplicity, and relative freedom from interferences. Continuous-flow designs greatly reduce analysis time as well as improve precision and allow for automation. However the accurate analysis of more complex environmental samples such as industrial sludges, soil samples, river sediments, and fly ash remains difficult. Numerous contributing factors influence the accuracy of the hydride technique. Sample digestion methods and sample preparation procedures are of critical importance. The digestion must adequately solubilize the elements of interest without loss by volatilization. Sample preparation procedures that guarantee the proper analyte oxidation state and eliminate the nitric acid and inter-element interferences are needed. In this study, difficult environmental samples were analyzed for As, Se, Sb, and Sn by continuous flow hydride generation. Sample preparation methods were optimized to eliminate interferences. The results of spike recovery studies will be presented. Data from the analysis of the same samples by graphite furnace AAS will be presented for comparison of accuracy, precision, and analysis time

  10. Suitability Analyses of Wind Power Generation Complex in South Korea by Using Environmental & Social Criterias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Y.; Jeon, S. W.; Seong, M.

    2017-12-01

    In case of wind-power, one of the most economical renewable energy resources, it is highly emerged owing to the strategic aspect of the response of environmental restriction and strong energy security as well as the upcoming motivation for huge industrial growth in the future. According to the fourth Fundamental Renewable Energy Plan, declared in Sep. 2014, the government instituted the scheme to minimize the proportion of previous RDF(Refused Derived Fuel) till 2035, promoting the solar power and wind power as the core energy for the next generation. Especially in South Korea, it is somewhat desperate to suggest the standard for environmentally optimal locations of wind power setup accompanied with the prevention of disasters from the climate changes. This is because that in case of South Korea, most of suitable places for Wind power complex are in the ridge of the mountains, where is highly invaluable sites as the pool of bio-resources and ecosystem conservations. In this research, we are to focus on the analysis of suitable locations for wind farm site which is relevant to the meteorological and geological factors, by utilizing GIS techniques through the whole South Korea. Ultimately, this analyses are to minimize the adverse effect derived from the current development of wind power in mountain ridges and the time for negotiation for wind power advance.

  11. Development of Conceptual Benchmark Models to Evaluate Complex Hydrologic Model Calibration in Managed Basins Using Python

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, J. D.; White, J.

    2013-12-01

    For many numerical hydrologic models it is a challenge to quantitatively demonstrate that complex models are preferable to simpler models. Typically, a decision is made to develop and calibrate a complex model at the beginning of a study. The value of selecting a complex model over simpler models is commonly inferred from use of a model with fewer simplifications of the governing equations because it can be time consuming to develop another numerical code with data processing and parameter estimation functionality. High-level programming languages like Python can greatly reduce the effort required to develop and calibrate simple models that can be used to quantitatively demonstrate the increased value of a complex model. We have developed and calibrated a spatially-distributed surface-water/groundwater flow model for managed basins in southeast Florida, USA, to (1) evaluate the effect of municipal groundwater pumpage on surface-water/groundwater exchange, (2) investigate how the study area will respond to sea-level rise, and (3) explore combinations of these forcing functions. To demonstrate the increased value of this complex model, we developed a two-parameter conceptual-benchmark-discharge model for each basin in the study area. The conceptual-benchmark-discharge model includes seasonal scaling and lag parameters and is driven by basin rainfall. The conceptual-benchmark-discharge models were developed in the Python programming language and used weekly rainfall data. Calibration was implemented with the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno method available in the Scientific Python (SciPy) library. Normalized benchmark efficiencies calculated using output from the complex model and the corresponding conceptual-benchmark-discharge model indicate that the complex model has more explanatory power than the simple model driven only by rainfall.

  12. An integrated model for simulating nitrogen trading in an agricultural catchment with complex hydrogeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, T J; Rutherford, J C; Kerr, S C; Smeaton, D C; Palliser, C C

    2013-09-30

    Nitrogen loads to several New Zealand lakes are dominated by nonpoint runoff from pastoral farmland which adversely affects lake water quality. A 'cap and trade' scheme is being considered to help meet targets set for nitrogen loads to Lake Rotorua, and a numerical model, NTRADER, has been developed to simulate and compare alternative schemes. NTRADER models both the geophysics of nitrogen generation and transport, including groundwater lag times, and the economics of 'cap and trade' schemes. It integrates the output from several existing models, including a farm-scale nitrogen leaching and abatement model, a farm-scale management economic model, and a catchment-scale nitrogen transport model. This paper details modeling methods and compares possible trading program design features for the Lake Rotorua catchment. Model simulations demonstrate how a cap and trade program could be used to effectively achieve challenging environmental goals in the targeted catchment. However, results also show that, due to complex hydrogeology, satisfactory environmental outcomes may be not achieved unless groundwater lag times are incorporated into the regulatory scheme. One way to do this, as demonstrated here, would be to explicitly include lag times in the cap and trade program. The utility of the model is further demonstrated by quantifying relative differences in abatement costs across potential regulatory schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling of Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tian Yin; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-05-03

    The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental concentrations. Despite significant advances in analytical methods, it is still not possible to measure the concentrations of ENM in natural systems. Material flow and environmental fate models have been used to provide predicted environmental concentrations. However, almost all current models are static and consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that many ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released with a lag phase. Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict the flows of four ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to the environment and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. Caused by the increase in production, the concentrations of all ENM in all compartments are increasing. Nano-TiO2 had far higher concentrations than the other three ENM. Sediment showed in our worst-case scenario concentrations ranging from 6.7 μg/kg (CNT) to about 40 000 μg/kg (nano-TiO2). In most cases the concentrations in waste incineration residues are at the "mg/kg" level. The flows to the environment that we provide will constitute the most accurate and reliable input of masses for environmental fate models which are using process-based descriptions of the fate and behavior of ENM in natural systems and rely on accurate mass input parameters.

  14. Integrating modelling and smart sensors for environmental and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reis, Stefan; Seto, Edmund; Northcross, Amanda; Quinn, Nigel W T; Convertino, Matteo; Jones, Rod L; Maier, Holger R; Schlink, Uwe; Steinle, Susanne; Vieno, Massimo; Wimberly, Michael C

    2015-12-01

    Sensors are becoming ubiquitous in everyday life, generating data at an unprecedented rate and scale. However, models that assess impacts of human activities on environmental and human health, have typically been developed in contexts where data scarcity is the norm. Models are essential tools to understand processes, identify relationships, associations and causality, formalize stakeholder mental models, and to quantify the effects of prevention and interventions. They can help to explain data, as well as inform the deployment and location of sensors by identifying hotspots and areas of interest where data collection may achieve the best results. We identify a paradigm shift in how the integration of models and sensors can contribute to harnessing 'Big Data' and, more importantly, make the vital step from 'Big Data' to 'Big Information'. In this paper, we illustrate current developments and identify key research needs using human and environmental health challenges as an example.

  15. Modeling the Relationships between Subdimensions of Environmental Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genc, Murat; Akilli, Mustafa

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the relationships between subdimensions of environmental literacy using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The study was conducted by the analysis of students' answers to questionnaires data using SEM. Initially, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and Bartlett's tests were done to test appropriateness of subdimensions to…

  16. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  17. A model for assessing the environmental impact of transport

    OpenAIRE

    Malgorzata Latuszynska; Roma Strulak-Wojcikiewicz

    2013-01-01

    Environmental effects of transport, with a particular focus on the natural environment have been discussed. The authors present methods for assessing the influence of investments in transport infrastructure on the environment, as well as the concept of a simulation model which integrates various methods and approaches used to assess the impact of such investments on the environment. (original abstract)

  18. The Mathematical modelling of environmental pollution using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper environmental pollution has been modeled mathematically using the Freundlich non-linear contaminant transport formulation. An analytical solution of lower order perturbation of the concentration C(x,f) is obtained. Flow profiles for various values of molecular diffusion D and the velocity U are studied and the ...

  19. Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'sullivan, David J.; O'Keeffe, Gary; Fennell, Peter; Gleeson, James

    2015-09-01

    The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010), adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the “complex contagion” effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to “simple” contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory) regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010), to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

  20. An adaptive complex network model for brain functional networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignacio J Gomez Portillo

    Full Text Available Brain functional networks are graph representations of activity in the brain, where the vertices represent anatomical regions and the edges their functional connectivity. These networks present a robust small world topological structure, characterized by highly integrated modules connected sparsely by long range links. Recent studies showed that other topological properties such as the degree distribution and the presence (or absence of a hierarchical structure are not robust, and show different intriguing behaviors. In order to understand the basic ingredients necessary for the emergence of these complex network structures we present an adaptive complex network model for human brain functional networks. The microscopic units of the model are dynamical nodes that represent active regions of the brain, whose interaction gives rise to complex network structures. The links between the nodes are chosen following an adaptive algorithm that establishes connections between dynamical elements with similar internal states. We show that the model is able to describe topological characteristics of human brain networks obtained from functional magnetic resonance imaging studies. In particular, when the dynamical rules of the model allow for integrated processing over the entire network scale-free non-hierarchical networks with well defined communities emerge. On the other hand, when the dynamical rules restrict the information to a local neighborhood, communities cluster together into larger ones, giving rise to a hierarchical structure, with a truncated power law degree distribution.

  1. Approaches for the environmental evaluation of two swamp complexes of the Momposina depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caballero, Humberto; Durango, Consuelo

    1998-01-01

    The swamp complexes of the Momposina depression in the lower Magdalena River have been submitted to irrational exploitation, transformation and contamination mainly since the beginning of the century, process that has be en getting worse in the last decade. The most evident manifestation of the environmental deterioration is expressed by the drastic reduction of fishing, with important socio-economic effects to the population that lives from this source. The most notorious causes of the actual state of the ecosystem were detected, and some preliminary considerations for its management are presented. However, due to the modifications that the complexes have suffered (closure of the natural sewer, construction of jarillones, modifications of the internal water flows and sediments, over exploitation, of fish and herpetofauna), the deterioration of the limnologic conditions is moderated, which allows to begin recuperation plans. The major impacts were observed in the fauna of birds and reptiles associated to the swamps; the decrease of the ictics populations seems to be related to the strong impact generated by the fishing action used and the interruption of the natural cycles of fish. The possibility of rebuilding the communication swamp-river should be studied with care because it seems the system has arrived to new conditions. The re-opening of the sewers could mean a new unbalanced condition represented mainly by the contamination coming from the Magdalena River

  2. Thematic report: Macroeconomic models including specifically social and environmental aspects

    OpenAIRE

    Kratena, Kurt

    2015-01-01

    WWWforEurope Deliverable No. 8, 30 pages A significant reduction of the global environmental consequences of European consumption and production activities are the main objective of the policy simulations carried out in this paper. For this purpose three different modelling approaches have been chosen. Two macroeconomic models following the philosophy of consistent stock-flow accounting for the main institutional sectors (households, firms, banks, central bank and government) are used for...

  3. Environmental system analysis of waste management. Experiences from applications of the ORWARE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerklund, Anna

    2000-11-01

    Waste management has gone through a history of shifting problems, demands, and strategies over the years. In contrast to the long prevailing view that the problem could be solved by hiding or moving it, waste is now viewed as a problem ranging from local to global concern, and as being an integral part of several sectors in society. Decisive for this view has been society's increasing complexity and thus the increasing complexity of waste, together with a general development of environmental consciousness, moving from local focus on point emission sources, to regional and global issues of more complex nature. This thesis is about the development and application ORWARE; a model for computer aided environmental systems analysis of municipal waste management. Its origin is the hypothesis that widened perspectives are needed in waste management decision-making to avoid severe sub-optimisation of environmental performance. With a strong foundation in life cycle assessment (LCA), ORWARE aims to cover the environmental impacts over the entire life cycle of waste management. It also performs substance flow analysis (SFA) calculations at a rather detailed level of the system. Applying ORWARE has confirmed the importance of applying systems perspective and of taking into account site specific differences in analysis and planning of waste management, rather than relying on overly simplified solutions. Some findings can be generalised and used as guidelines to reduce environmental impact of waste management. Recovery of material and energy resources from waste generally leads to net reductions in energy use and environmental impact, because of the savings this brings about in other sectors. Waste treatment with low rate of energy and materials recovery should therefore be avoided. The exact choice of technology however depends on what products can be recovered and how they are used. Despite the complexity of the model and a certain degree of user unfriendliness, involved

  4. Evaluating the response of complex systems to environmental threats: the Σ II method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corynen, G.C.

    1983-05-01

    The Σ II method was developed to model and compute the probabilistic performance of systems that operate in a threatening environment. Although we emphasize the vulnerability of complex systems to earthquakes and to electromagnetic threats such as EMP (electromagnetic pulse), the method applies in general to most large-scale systems or networks that are embedded in a potentially harmful environment. Other methods exist for obtaining system vulnerability, but their complexity increases exponentially as the size of systems is increased. The complexity of the Σ II method is polynomial, and accurate solutions are now possible for problems for which current methods require the use of rough statistical bounds, confidence statements, and other approximations. For super-large problems, where the costs of precise answers may be prohibitive, a desired accuracy can be specified, and the Σ II algorithms will halt when that accuracy has been reached. We summarize the results of a theoretical complexity analysis - which is reported elsewhere - and validate the theory with computer experiments conducted both on worst-case academic problems and on more reasonable problems occurring in practice. Finally, we compare our method with the exact methods of Abraham and Nakazawa, and with current bounding methods, and we demonstrate the computational efficiency and accuracy of Σ II

  5. Effects of Environmental Air Pollution on Pulmonary Function Level of Residents in Korean Industrial Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunju Hong

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to identify environmental air pollution adversely affecting pulmonary function among a community-based general population living in Korean industrial complexes. A total of 1963 residents participated in a pulmonary function test (PFT. The sample population consisted of an exposed group (n = 1487 living within a radius of 5 km of industrial complexes and a control group (n = 476 living over a radius of 10 km from the industrial complexes in Gwangyang and Yeosu cities. PFT results were calculated for each resident of the study population. On-site questionnaire surveys with face-to-face interviews were also conducted to collect more detailed information on personal lifestyles, medical history, exposure to air pollution, and respiratory disease and related symptoms. A total of 486 measured samples were collected by eight automated air-monitoring stations installed in four counties of Gwangyang and four counties of Yeosu in South Korea from January 2006 to February 2007. Mean levels of SO2 (0.012 ppm, CO (0.648 ppm, NO2 (0.02 ppm, O3 (0.034 ppm, and PM10 (43.07 μg/m3, collected within a radius of 5 km, were significantly higher than those collected over a radius of 10 km from Gwangyang and Yeosu industrial complexes. Prevalence odds ratio (OR of abnormal pulmonary function in the exposed group of residents (<5 km was elevated at 1.24 (95% CI 0.71–1.96, but not statistically significant (p > 0.05. In multiple linear regression analysis, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC levels significantly declined as SO2, CO, and O3 levels increased when adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI, alcohol, smoking, secondhand smoke, and respiratory disease and related symptoms (n = 1963 (p < 0.05. These results suggest that exposure to air pollution affects pulmonary function levels of residents living in Korean industrial complexes.

  6. The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, C

    2001-01-01

    We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

  7. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  8. Using Stochastic Model Checking to Provision Complex Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herbert, Luke Thomas; Sharp, Robin

    2012-01-01

    We present a framework for modelling and analysis of real-world business workflows. Business processes regularly form the basis for the design of software services, and frequently display complex stochastic behaviour. The accurate evaluation of their qualitative aspects can allow for determining...... bounds on resources consumed during execution of business processes. Accurate resource provisioning is often central to ensuring the safe execution of a process. We first introduce a formalised core subset of the Business Process Modelling and Notation (BPMN), which we extend with probabilistic and non......-deterministic branching and reward annotations. We then develop an algorithm for the efficient translation of these models into the guarded command language used by the model checker PRISM, in turn enabling model checking of BPMN processes and allowing for the calculation of a wide range of quantitative properties...

  9. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

  10. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  11. A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

    2018-01-15

    Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

  12. Stability of rotor systems: A complex modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...... approach applying bounds of appropriate Rayleigh quotients. The rotor systems tested are: a simple Laval rotor, a Laval rotor with additional elasticity and damping in the bearings, and a number of rotor systems with complex symmetric 4 x 4 randomly generated matrices.......The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D......, G and N to be positive semidefinite. The complex setting is equivalent to twice as large a system of second order with real matrices. It is well known that rotor systems can exhibit instability for large angular velocities due to internal damping, unsymmetrical steam flow in turbines, or imperfect...

  13. Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Ne-Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

  14. Models of Care Delivery for Children With Medical Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pordes, Elisabeth; Gordon, John; Sanders, Lee M; Cohen, Eyal

    2018-03-01

    Children with medical complexity (CMC) are a subset of children and youth with special health care needs with high resource use and health care costs. Novel care delivery models in which care coordination and other services to CMC are provided are a focus of national and local health care and policy initiatives. Current models of care for CMC can be grouped into 3 main categories: (1) primary care-centered models, (2) consultative- or comanagement-centered models, and (3) episode-based models. Each model has unique advantages and disadvantages. Evaluations of these models have demonstrated positive outcomes, but most studies have limited generalizability for broader populations of CMC. A lack of standardized outcomes and population definitions for CMC hinders assessment of the comparative effectiveness of different models of care and identification of which components of the models lead to positive outcomes. Ongoing challenges include inadequate support for family caregivers and threats to the sustainability of models of care. Collaboration among key stakeholders (patients, families, providers, payers, and policy makers) is needed to address the gaps in care and create best practice guidelines to ensure the delivery of high-value care for CMC. Copyright © 2018 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  15. Coupled atmosphere-biophysics-hydrology models for environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walko, R.L.; Band, L.E.; Baron, Jill S.; Kittel, T.G.F.; Lammers, R.; Lee, T.J.; Ojima, D.; Pielke, R.A.; Taylor, C.; Tague, C.; Tremback, C.J.; Vidale, P.L.

    2000-01-01

    The formulation and implementation of LEAF-2, the Land Ecosystem–Atmosphere Feedback model, which comprises the representation of land–surface processes in the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is described. LEAF-2 is a prognostic model for the temperature and water content of soil, snow cover, vegetation, and canopy air, and includes turbulent and radiative exchanges between these components and with the atmosphere. Subdivision of a RAMS surface grid cell into multiple areas of distinct land-use types is allowed, with each subgrid area, or patch, containing its own LEAF-2 model, and each patch interacts with the overlying atmospheric column with a weight proportional to its fractional area in the grid cell. A description is also given of TOPMODEL, a land hydrology model that represents surface and subsurface downslope lateral transport of groundwater. Details of the incorporation of a modified form of TOPMODEL into LEAF-2 are presented. Sensitivity tests of the coupled system are presented that demonstrate the potential importance of the patch representation and of lateral water transport in idealized model simulations. Independent studies that have applied LEAF-2 and verified its performance against observational data are cited. Linkage of RAMS and TOPMODEL through LEAF-2 creates a modeling system that can be used to explore the coupled atmosphere–biophysical–hydrologic response to altered climate forcing at local watershed and regional basin scales.

  16. A corticothalamic circuit model for sound identification in complex scenes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonzalo H Otazu

    Full Text Available The identification of the sound sources present in the environment is essential for the survival of many animals. However, these sounds are not presented in isolation, as natural scenes consist of a superposition of sounds originating from multiple sources. The identification of a source under these circumstances is a complex computational problem that is readily solved by most animals. We present a model of the thalamocortical circuit that performs level-invariant recognition of auditory objects in complex auditory scenes. The circuit identifies the objects present from a large dictionary of possible elements and operates reliably for real sound signals with multiple concurrently active sources. The key model assumption is that the activities of some cortical neurons encode the difference between the observed signal and an internal estimate. Reanalysis of awake auditory cortex recordings revealed neurons with patterns of activity corresponding to such an error signal.

  17. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  18. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  19. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  20. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  1. A computational framework for modeling targets as complex adaptive systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Eugene; Santos, Eunice E.; Korah, John; Murugappan, Vairavan; Subramanian, Suresh

    2017-05-01

    Modeling large military targets is a challenge as they can be complex systems encompassing myriad combinations of human, technological, and social elements that interact, leading to complex behaviors. Moreover, such targets have multiple components and structures, extending across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and are in a state of change, either in response to events in the environment or changes within the system. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory can help in capturing the dynamism, interactions, and more importantly various emergent behaviors, displayed by the targets. However, a key stumbling block is incorporating information from various intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) sources, while dealing with the inherent uncertainty, incompleteness and time criticality of real world information. To overcome these challenges, we present a probabilistic reasoning network based framework called complex adaptive Bayesian Knowledge Base (caBKB). caBKB is a rigorous, overarching and axiomatic framework that models two key processes, namely information aggregation and information composition. While information aggregation deals with the union, merger and concatenation of information and takes into account issues such as source reliability and information inconsistencies, information composition focuses on combining information components where such components may have well defined operations. Since caBKBs can explicitly model the relationships between information pieces at various scales, it provides unique capabilities such as the ability to de-aggregate and de-compose information for detailed analysis. Using a scenario from the Network Centric Operations (NCO) domain, we will describe how our framework can be used for modeling targets with a focus on methodologies for quantifying NCO performance metrics.

  2. Evaluating and Mitigating the Impact of Complexity in Software Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    use) 18. Year 2000 Repairs (date format expansion or masking) 19. Euro - currency conversion (adding the new unified currency to financial applications...from SCADE systems [ANSYS 2014a]. The following sections introduce the key concepts related to model complexity and pre- sent the outline of this...found during design = $500 Defects found during coding and testing = $1,250 Defects found after release = $5,000 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-013 | SOFTWARE

  3. Fundamentals of complex networks models, structures and dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Guanrong; Li, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Complex networks such as the Internet, WWW, transportationnetworks, power grids, biological neural networks, and scientificcooperation networks of all kinds provide challenges for futuretechnological development. In particular, advanced societies havebecome dependent on large infrastructural networks to an extentbeyond our capability to plan (modeling) and to operate (control).The recent spate of collapses in power grids and ongoing virusattacks on the Internet illustrate the need for knowledge aboutmodeling, analysis of behaviors, optimized planning and performancecontrol in such networks. F

  4. Model Complexities of Shallow Networks Representing Highly Varying Functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 January (2016), s. 598-604 ISSN 0925-2312 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD13002 Grant - others:grant for Visiting Professors(IT) GNAMPA-INdAM Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow networks * model complexity * highly varying functions * Chernoff bound * perceptrons * Gaussian kernel units Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 3.317, year: 2016

  5. The Complex Action Recognition via the Correlated Topic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-bin Tu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Human complex action recognition is an important research area of the action recognition. Among various obstacles to human complex action recognition, one of the most challenging is to deal with self-occlusion, where one body part occludes another one. This paper presents a new method of human complex action recognition, which is based on optical flow and correlated topic model (CTM. Firstly, the Markov random field was used to represent the occlusion relationship between human body parts in terms of an occlusion state variable. Secondly, the structure from motion (SFM is used for reconstructing the missing data of point trajectories. Then, we can extract the key frame based on motion feature from optical flow and the ratios of the width and height are extracted by the human silhouette. Finally, we use the topic model of correlated topic model (CTM to classify action. Experiments were performed on the KTH, Weizmann, and UIUC action dataset to test and evaluate the proposed method. The compared experiment results showed that the proposed method was more effective than compared methods.

  6. MULTILEVEL RECURRENT MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL CONTROL OF COMPLEX REGIONAL SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey V. Masloboev

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of

  7. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  8. Using frameworks to diagram value in complex policy and environmental interventions to prevent childhood obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swank, Melissa Farrell; Brennan, Laura K; Gentry, Daniel; Kemner, Allison L

    2015-01-01

    To date, few tools assist policy makers and practitioners in understanding and conveying the implementation costs, potential impacts, and value of policy and environmental changes to address healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. For the Evaluation of Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities (HKHC), evaluators considered inputs (resources and investments) that generate costs and savings as well as benefits and harms related to social, economic, environmental, and health-related outcomes in their assessment of 49 HKHC community partnerships funded from 2009 to 2014. Using data collected through individual and group interviews and an online performance monitoring system, evaluators created a socioecological framework to assess investments, resources, costs, savings, benefits, and harms at the individual, organizational, community, and societal levels. Evaluators customized frameworks for 6 focal strategies: active transportation, parks and play spaces, child care physical activity standards, corner stores, farmers' markets, and child care nutrition standards. To illustrate the Value Frameworks, this brief highlights the 38 HKHC communities implementing at least 1 active transportation strategy. Evaluators populated this conceptual Value Framework with themes from the strategy-specific inputs and outputs. The range of factors corresponding to the implementation and impact of the HKHC community partnerships are highlighted along with the inputs and outputs. The Value Frameworks helped evaluators identify gaps in current analysis models (ie, benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis) as well as paint a more complete picture of value for potential obesity prevention strategies. These frameworks provide a comprehensive understanding of investments needed, proposed costs and savings, and potential benefits and harms associated with economic, social, environmental, and health outcomes. This framing also allowed evaluators to demonstrate the interdependence

  9. Complexity and agent-based modelling in urban research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    Urbanisation processes are results of a broad variety of actors or actor groups and their behaviour and decisions based on different experiences, knowledge, resources, values etc. The decisions done are often on a micro/individual level but resulting in macro/collective behaviour. In urban research...... influence on the bigger system. Traditional scientific methods or theories often tried to simplify, not accounting complex relations of actors and decision-making. The introduction of computers in simulation made new approaches in modelling, as for example agent-based modelling (ABM), possible, dealing...... is (still) seen very critical regarding its usefulness and explanatory power....

  10. Methodology and Results of Mathematical Modelling of Complex Technological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrova, Nataliya V.

    2018-03-01

    The methodology of system analysis allows us to draw a mathematical model of the complex technological process. The mathematical description of the plasma-chemical process was proposed. The importance the quenching rate and initial temperature decrease time was confirmed for producing the maximum amount of the target product. The results of numerical integration of the system of differential equations can be used to describe reagent concentrations, plasma jet rate and temperature in order to achieve optimal mode of hardening. Such models are applicable both for solving control problems and predicting future states of sophisticated technological systems.

  11. The evaluative imaging of mental models - Visual representations of complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dede, Christopher

    1989-01-01

    The paper deals with some design issues involved in building a system that could visually represent the semantic structures of training materials and their underlying mental models. In particular, hypermedia-based semantic networks that instantiate classification problem solving strategies are thought to be a useful formalism for such representations; the complexity of these web structures can be best managed through visual depictions. It is also noted that a useful approach to implement in these hypermedia models would be some metrics of conceptual distance.

  12. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  13. Ti(IV) and the Siderophore Desferrioxamine B: A Tight Complex Has Biological and Environmental Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kayleigh E; Batchler, Kathleen L; Zalouk, Célia; Valentine, Ann M

    2017-02-06

    The siderophore desferrioxamine B (DFOB) binds Ti(IV) tightly and precludes its hydrolytic precipitation under biologically and environmentally relevant conditions. This interaction of DFOB with Ti(IV) is investigated by using spectro-potentiometric and spectro-photometric titrations, mass spectrometry, isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC), and computational modeling. The data from pH 2-10 suggest two one-proton equilibria among three species, with one species predominating below pH 3.5, a second from pH 3.5 to 8, and a third above pH 8. The latter species is prone to slow hydrolytic precipitation. Electrospray mass spectrometry allowed the detection of [Ti(IV) (HDFOB)] 2+ and [Ti(DFOB)] + ; these species were assigned as the pH Ti(IV)-DFOB was determined by using UV/vis-monitored competition with ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). Taking into consideration the available binding constant of Ti(IV) and EDTA, the data reveal values of log β 111 = 41.7, log β 110 = 38.1, and log β 11-1 = 30.1. The former value was supported by ITC, with the transfer of Ti(IV) from EDTA to DFOB determined to be both enthalpically and entropically favorable. Computational methods yielded a model of Ti-DFOB. The physiological and environmental implications of this tight interaction and the potential role of DFOB in solubilizing Ti(IV) are discussed.

  14. Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

  15. A 2-D model for friction of complex anisotropic surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costagliola, Gianluca; Bosia, Federico; Pugno, Nicola M.

    2018-03-01

    The friction force observed at macroscale is the result of interactions at various lower length scales that are difficult to model in a combined manner. For this reason, simplified approaches are required, depending on the specific aspect to be investigated. In particular, the dimensionality of the system is often reduced, especially in models designed to provide a qualitative description of frictional properties of elastic materials, e.g. the spring-block model. In this paper, we implement for the first time a two dimensional extension of the spring-block model, applying it to structured surfaces and investigating by means of numerical simulations the frictional behaviour of a surface in the presence of features like cavities, pillars or complex anisotropic structures. We show how friction can be effectively tuned by appropriate design of such surface features.

  16. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M.

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person

  17. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M. (eds.)

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.

  18. Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

    2010-01-01

    Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response

  19. Rule-based models of the interplay between genetic and environmental factors in childhood allergy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Bornelöv

    Full Text Available Both genetic and environmental factors are important for the development of allergic diseases. However, a detailed understanding of how such factors act together is lacking. To elucidate the interplay between genetic and environmental factors in allergic diseases, we used a novel bioinformatics approach that combines feature selection and machine learning. In two materials, PARSIFAL (a European cross-sectional study of 3113 children and BAMSE (a Swedish birth-cohort including 2033 children, genetic variants as well as environmental and lifestyle factors were evaluated for their contribution to allergic phenotypes. Monte Carlo feature selection and rule based models were used to identify and rank rules describing how combinations of genetic and environmental factors affect the risk of allergic diseases. Novel interactions between genes were suggested and replicated, such as between ORMDL3 and RORA, where certain genotype combinations gave odds ratios for current asthma of 2.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.6 and 3.2 (95% CI 2.0-5.0 in the BAMSE and PARSIFAL children, respectively. Several combinations of environmental factors appeared to be important for the development of allergic disease in children. For example, use of baby formula and antibiotics early in life was associated with an odds ratio of 7.4 (95% CI 4.5-12.0 of developing asthma. Furthermore, genetic variants together with environmental factors seemed to play a role for allergic diseases, such as the use of antibiotics early in life and COL29A1 variants for asthma, and farm living and NPSR1 variants for allergic eczema. Overall, combinations of environmental and life style factors appeared more frequently in the models than combinations solely involving genes. In conclusion, a new bioinformatics approach is described for analyzing complex data, including extensive genetic and environmental information. Interactions identified with this approach could provide useful hints for further in-depth studies

  20. PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domijan, Mirela; Brown, Paul E; Shulgin, Boris V; Rand, David A

    2016-03-10

    signalling systems. It allows for simulation and analysis of models under a variety of environmental conditions and for experimental optimisation of complex combined experiments. With its unique set of tools it makes a valuable addition to the current library of sensitivity analysis toolboxes. We believe that this software will be of great use to the wider biological, systems biology and modelling communities.

  1. The Y-12 Plant - a model for environmental excellence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy`s Y-12 Plant, located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, occupies more than 800 acres and has a work force of over 4,000 employees. The Y-12 Plant is managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of Martin Marietta Corporation. Although mission emphases at the Y-12 Plant have evolved and changed with the easing of international tensions, the Plant continues to serve as a key manufacturing unit and technology demonstration center for the Department of Energy and the nation. The Y-12 Plant has undergone many changes in the last 14 years. One of the most dramatic changes has occurred in the environmental programs with measurable improvements in environmental quality, the development of an award-winning pollution prevention program, and the institution of an environmentally-conscious work ethic among the work force. Because the plant is committed to achieving excellence, not just compliance with laws and regulations, a highly structured, multimedia environmental management program is in place. This program, combined with a commitment to protect the environment while striving for continued improvement, has placed Y-12 in the position to reach excellence. As a result of the Y-12 Plant`s changing mission, they are now working closely with American industry through technology transfer to share their experiences and {open_quotes}lessons learned{close_quotes}--including environmental and pollution prevention technology. To facilitate this effort, the Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology has been established at the Y-12 Plant. Through the Centers, the Oak Ridge staff applies skills, capabilities, and facilities developed over a 50-year history of the Oak Ridge Complex to a variety of peacetime missions. The services found at the Centers are a key to helping America`s businesses--both small and large--compete in the global marketplace while protecting the nations environment and conserving its resources.

  2. Interactive Higher Education Instruction to Advance STEM Instruction in the Environmental Sciences - the Brownfield Action Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddicoat, J. C.; Bower, P.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that presently there are over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly in the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part or entirely online for more than 15 years in environmental science, engineering, and hydrology courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011, 2014; Liddicoat and Bower, 2015). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies with a peer chosen at random to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants and professionals, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue, and to acquire STEM knowledge that can be used constructively when confronted with such an issue.

  3. Using model complexes to augment and advance metalloproteinase inhibitor design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Faith E; Cohen, Seth M

    2004-05-17

    The tetrahedral zinc complex [(Tp(Ph,Me))ZnOH] (Tp(Ph,Me) = hydrotris(3,5-phenylmethylpyrazolyl)borate) was combined with 2-thenylmercaptan, ethyl 4,4,4-trifluoroacetoacetate, salicylic acid, salicylamide, thiosalicylic acid, thiosalicylamide, methyl salicylate, methyl thiosalicyliate, and 2-hydroxyacetophenone to form the corresponding [(Tp(Ph,Me))Zn(ZBG)] complexes (ZBG = zinc-binding group). X-ray crystal structures of these complexes were obtained to determine the mode of binding for each ZBG, several of which had been previously studied with SAR by NMR (structure-activity relationship by nuclear magnetic resonance) as potential ligands for use in matrix metalloproteinase inhibitors. The [(Tp(Ph,Me))Zn(ZBG)] complexes show that hydrogen bonding and donor atom acidity have a pronounced effect on the mode of binding for this series of ligands. The results of these studies give valuable insight into how ligand protonation state and intramolecular hydrogen bonds can influence the coordination mode of metal-binding proteinase inhibitors. The findings here suggest that model-based approaches can be used to augment drug discovery methods applied to metalloproteins and can aid second-generation drug design.

  4. Testing a Model Linking Environmental Hope and Self-Control with Students' Positive Emotions and Environmental Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerret, Dorit; Orkibi, Hod; Ronen, Tammie

    2016-01-01

    This study examined a moderated mediation model with 254 Israeli junior high school students, hypothesizing that students' environmental hope would simultaneously mediate the relationship between their engagement in school-based environmental activities (green engagement) and their environmental behavior as well as their positivity ratio, but that…

  5. Ionic liquid and solid HF equivalent amine-poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes effecting efficient environmentally friendly isobutane-isobutylene alkylation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olah, George A; Mathew, Thomas; Goeppert, Alain; Török, Béla; Bucsi, Imre; Li, Xing-Ya; Wang, Qi; Marinez, Eric R; Batamack, Patrice; Aniszfeld, Robert; Prakash, G K Surya

    2005-04-27

    Isoparaffin-olefin alkylation was investigated using liquid as well as solid onium poly(hydrogen fluoride) catalysts. These new immobilized anhydrous HF catalysts contain varied amines and nitrogen-containing polymers as complexing agents. The liquid poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes of amines are typical ionic liquids, which are convenient media and serve as HF equivalent catalysts with decreased volatility for isoparaffin-olefin alkylation. Polymeric solid amine:poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes are excellent solid HF equivalents for similar alkylation acid catalysis. Isobutane-isobutylene or 2-butene alkylation gave excellent yields of high octane alkylates (up to RON = 94). Apart from their excellent catalytic performance, the new catalyst systems significantly reduce environmental hazards due to the low volatility of complexed HF. They represent a new, "green" class of catalyst systems for alkylation reactions, maintaining activity of HF while minimizing its environmental hazards.

  6. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-01-01

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573])

  7. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  8. Using Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Practices to Address Scientific Misunderstandings Around Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Kenna, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    The new NGSS provide an important opportunity for scientists to develop curriculum that links the practice of science to research-based data in order to improve understanding in areas of science that are both complex and confusing. Our curriculum focuses in particular on the fate and transport of anthropogenic radionuclides. Radioactivity, both naturally occurring and anthropogenic, is highly debated and largely misunderstood, and for large sections of the population is a source of scientific misunderstanding. Developed as part of the international GEOTRACES project which focuses on identifying ocean processes and quantifying fluxes that control the distributions of selected trace elements and isotopes in the ocean, and on establishing the sensitivity of these distributions to changing environmental conditions, the curriculum topic fits nicely into the applied focus of NGSS with both environmental and topical relevance. Our curriculum design focuses on small group discussion driven by questions, yet unlike more traditional curriculum pieces these are not questions posed to the students, rather they are questions posed by the students to facilitate their deeper understanding. Our curriculum design challenges the traditional question/answer memorization approach to instruction as we strive to develop an educational approach that supports the practice of science as well as the NGSS Cross Cutting Concepts and the Science & Engineering Practices. Our goal is for students to develop a methodology they can employ when faced with a complex scientific issue. Through background readings and team discussions they identify what type of information is important for them to know and where to find a reliable source for that information. Framing their discovery around key questions such as "What type of radioactive decay are we dealing with?", "What is the potential half-life of the isotope?", and "What are the pathways of transport of radioactivity?" allows students to evaluate a

  9. Application of atmospheric transport models for complex terrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, D.S.; Bunker, S.S.

    1984-01-01

    Numerical modeling techniques are applied to several diverse situations to study mesoscale transport of effluents in the earth's atmosphere. Simulations of a tracer release in complex terrain are compared with experiments carried out in the Northern California Geysers area during a period when nighttime drainage flow was the dominant feature. In addition, we study two situations, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and the Savannah River Laboratory, for which the terrain is assumed to not be a factor. These involve large modeling areas and in one case, time periods extending over more than two diurnal cycles. These model simulations indicate that a diagnostic wind model utilizing terrain-following coordinates gives reasonable agreement with observations obtained over simple as well as complex terrain. In order to increase the accuracy in simulations of pollutant concentration distribution, much more refinement in wind measurements in space and time is needed since small differences in wind direction, for example, can produce a large difference in computed and measured concentration sufficiently downwind of a source

  10. Semiotic aspects of control and modeling relations in complex systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joslyn, C.

    1996-08-01

    A conceptual analysis of the semiotic nature of control is provided with the goal of elucidating its nature in complex systems. Control is identified as a canonical form of semiotic relation of a system to its environment. As a form of constraint between a system and its environment, its necessary and sufficient conditions are established, and the stabilities resulting from control are distinguished from other forms of stability. These result from the presence of semantic coding relations, and thus the class of control systems is hypothesized to be equivalent to that of semiotic systems. Control systems are contrasted with models, which, while they have the same measurement functions as control systems, do not necessarily require semantic relations because of the lack of the requirement of an interpreter. A hybrid construction of models in control systems is detailed. Towards the goal of considering the nature of control in complex systems, the possible relations among collections of control systems are considered. Powers arguments on conflict among control systems and the possible nature of control in social systems are reviewed, and reconsidered based on our observations about hierarchical control. Finally, we discuss the necessary semantic functions which must be present in complex systems for control in this sense to be present at all.

  11. Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin

    2015-01-01

    -valued models, this paper proposes a GSM model - the Bessel K model - that induces concave penalty functions for the estimation of complex sparse signals. The properties of the Bessel K model are analyzed when it is applied to Type I and Type II estimation. This analysis reveals that, by tuning the parameters...... of the mixing pdf different penalty functions are invoked depending on the estimation type used, the value of the noise variance, and whether real or complex signals are estimated. Using the Bessel K model, we derive a sparse estimator based on a modification of the expectation-maximization algorithm formulated......In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex...

  12. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

    2011-01-01

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  13. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-06-20

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN.

  14. An efficient algorithm for corona simulation with complex chemical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Andrea; Barbieri, Luca; Gondola, Marco; Leon-Garzon, Andres R.; Malgesini, Roberto

    2017-05-01

    The simulation of cold plasma discharges is a leading field of applied sciences with many applications ranging from pollutant control to surface treatment. Many of these applications call for the development of novel numerical techniques to implement fully three-dimensional corona solvers that can utilize complex and physically detailed chemical databases. This is a challenging task since it multiplies the difficulties inherent to a three-dimensional approach by the complexity of databases comprising tens of chemical species and hundreds of reactions. In this paper a novel approach, capable of reducing significantly the computational burden, is developed. The proposed method is based on a proper time stepping algorithm capable of decomposing the original problem into simpler ones: each of them has then been tackled with either finite element, finite volume or ordinary differential equations solvers. This last solver deals with the chemical model and its efficient implementation is one of the main contributions of this work.

  15. Modeling self-assembly and phase behavior in complex mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balazs, Anna C

    2007-01-01

    Using a variety of computational techniques, I investigate how the self-assembly of complex mixtures can be guided by surfaces or external stimuli to form spatially regular or temporally periodic patterns. Focusing on mixtures in confined geometries, I examine how thermodynamic and hydrodynamic effects can be exploited to create regular arrays of nanowires or monodisperse, particle-filled droplets. I also show that an applied light source and chemical reaction can be harnessed to create hierarchically ordered patterns in ternary, phase-separating mixtures. Finally, I consider the combined effects of confining walls and a chemical reaction to demonstrate that a swollen polymer gel can be driven to form dynamically periodic structures. In addition to illustrating the effectiveness of external factors in directing the self-organization of multicomponent mixtures, the selected examples illustrate how coarse-grained models can be used to capture both the equilibrium phase behavior and the dynamics of these complex systems.

  16. 3D model of amphioxus steroid receptor complexed with estradiol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, Michael E.; Chang, David J.

    2009-01-01

    The origins of signaling by vertebrate steroids are not fully understood. An important advance was the report that an estrogen-binding steroid receptor [SR] is present in amphioxus, a basal chordate with a similar body plan as vertebrates. To investigate the evolution of estrogen-binding to steroid receptors, we constructed a 3D model of amphioxus SR complexed with estradiol. This 3D model indicates that although the SR is activated by estradiol, some interactions between estradiol and human ERα are not conserved in the SR, which can explain the low affinity of estradiol for the SR. These differences between the SR and ERα in the steroid-binding domain are sufficient to suggest that another steroid is the physiological regulator of the SR. The 3D model predicts that mutation of Glu-346 to Gln will increase the affinity of testosterone for amphioxus SR and elucidate the evolution of steroid-binding to nuclear receptors.

  17. 3D model of amphioxus steroid receptor complexed with estradiol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, Michael E., E-mail: mbaker@ucsd.edu [Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0693 (United States); Chang, David J. [Department of Biology, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0693 (United States)

    2009-08-28

    The origins of signaling by vertebrate steroids are not fully understood. An important advance was the report that an estrogen-binding steroid receptor [SR] is present in amphioxus, a basal chordate with a similar body plan as vertebrates. To investigate the evolution of estrogen-binding to steroid receptors, we constructed a 3D model of amphioxus SR complexed with estradiol. This 3D model indicates that although the SR is activated by estradiol, some interactions between estradiol and human ER{alpha} are not conserved in the SR, which can explain the low affinity of estradiol for the SR. These differences between the SR and ER{alpha} in the steroid-binding domain are sufficient to suggest that another steroid is the physiological regulator of the SR. The 3D model predicts that mutation of Glu-346 to Gln will increase the affinity of testosterone for amphioxus SR and elucidate the evolution of steroid-binding to nuclear receptors.

  18. Rumor spreading model considering hesitating mechanism in complex social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Ling-Ling; Jiang, Guo-Ping; Song, Bo; Song, Yu-Rong

    2015-11-01

    The study of rumor spreading has become an important issue on complex social networks. On the basis of prior studies, we propose a modified ​susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model with hesitating mechanism by considering the attractiveness and fuzziness of the content of rumors. We derive mean-field equations to characterize the dynamics of SEIR model on both homogeneous and heterogeneous networks. Then a steady-state analysis is conducted to investigate the spreading threshold and the final rumor size. Simulations on both artificial and real networks show that a decrease of fuzziness can effectively increase the spreading threshold of the SEIR model and reduce the maximum rumor influence. In addition, the spreading threshold is independent of the attractiveness of rumor. Simulation results also show that the speed of rumor spreading obeys the relation ;BA network > WS network;, whereas the final scale of spreading obeys the opposite relation.

  19. Diffusion in higher dimensional SYK model with complex fermions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenhe; Ge, Xian-Hui; Yang, Guo-Hong

    2018-01-01

    We construct a new higher dimensional SYK model with complex fermions on bipartite lattices. As an extension of the original zero-dimensional SYK model, we focus on the one-dimension case, and similar Hamiltonian can be obtained in higher dimensions. This model has a conserved U(1) fermion number Q and a conjugate chemical potential μ. We evaluate the thermal and charge diffusion constants via large q expansion at low temperature limit. The results show that the diffusivity depends on the ratio of free Majorana fermions to Majorana fermions with SYK interactions. The transport properties and the butterfly velocity are accordingly calculated at low temperature. The specific heat and the thermal conductivity are proportional to the temperature. The electrical resistivity also has a linear temperature dependence term.

  20. Spectroscopic studies of molybdenum complexes as models for nitrogenase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.P.

    1981-05-01

    Because biological nitrogen fixation requires Mo, there is an interest in inorganic Mo complexes which mimic the reactions of nitrogen-fixing enzymes. Two such complexes are the dimer Mo 2 O 4 (cysteine) 2 2- and trans-Mo(N 2 ) 2 (dppe) 2 (dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane). The H 1 and C 13 NMR of solutions of Mo 2 O 4 (cys) 2 2- are described. It is shown that in aqueous solution the cysteine ligands assume at least three distinct configurations. A step-wise dissociation of the cysteine ligand is proposed to explain the data. The Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) of trans-Mo(N 2 ) 2 (dppe) 2 is described and compared to the EXAFS of MoH 4 (dppe) 2 . The spectra are fitted to amplitude and phase parameters developed at Bell Laboratories. On the basis of this analysis, one can determine (1) that the dinitrogen complex contains nitrogen and the hydride complex does not and (2) the correct Mo-N distance. This is significant because the Mo inn both complexes is coordinated by four P atoms which dominate the EXAFS. A similar sort of interference is present in nitrogenase due to S coordination of the Mo in the enzyme. This model experiment indicates that, given adequate signal to noise ratios, the presence or absence of dinitrogen coordination to Mo in the enzyme may be determined by EXAFS using existing data analysis techniques. A new reaction between Mo 2 O 4 (cys) 2 2- and acetylene is described to the extent it is presently understood. A strong EPR signal is observed, suggesting the production of stable Mo(V) monomers. EXAFS studies support this suggestion. The Mo K-edge is described. The edge data suggests Mo(VI) is also produced in the reaction. Ultraviolet spectra suggest that cysteine is released in the course of the reaction

  1. Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

  2. Increasing Model Complexity: Unit Testing and Validation of a Coupled Electrical Resistive Heating and Macroscopic Invasion Percolation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, I. L.; Krol, M.; Mumford, K. G.

    2016-12-01

    Geoenvironmental models are becoming increasingly sophisticated as they incorporate rising numbers of mechanisms and process couplings to describe environmental scenarios. When combined with advances in computing and numerical techniques, these already complicated models are experiencing large increases in code complexity and simulation time. Although, this complexity has enabled breakthroughs in the ability to describe environmental problems, it is difficult to ensure that complex models are sufficiently robust and behave as intended. Many development tools used for testing software robustness have not seen widespread use in geoenvironmental sciences despite an increasing reliance on complex numerical models, leaving many models at risk of undiscovered errors and potentially improper validations. This study explores the use of unit testing, which independently examines small code elements to ensure each unit is working as intended as well as their integrated behaviour, to test the functionality and robustness of a coupled Electrical Resistive Heating (ERH) - Macroscopic Invasion Percolation (MIP) model. ERH is a thermal remediation technique where the soil is heated until boiling and volatile contaminants are stripped from the soil. There is significant interest in improving the efficiency of ERH, including taking advantage of low-temperature co-boiling behaviour which may reduce energy consumption. However, at lower co-boiling temperatures gas bubbles can form, mobilize and collapse in cooler areas, potentially contaminating previously clean zones. The ERH-MIP model was created to simulate the behaviour of gas bubbles in the subsurface and to evaluate ERH during co-boiling1. This study demonstrates how unit testing ensures that the model behaves in an expected manner and examines the robustness of every component within the ERH-MIP model. Once unit testing is established, the MIP module (a discrete gas transport algorithm for gas expansion, mobilization and

  3. Environmental sustainability model and biodiversity preservation in Central Rhodopes

    OpenAIRE

    Zlatka Grigorova; Ekaterina Arabska

    2013-01-01

    The paper examines the significance, opportunities and ways of biodiversity preservation and sustainable use of natural resources in the central region of the mountain of Rhodopes in Bulgaria. The proposed integrated model of recommendations embraces the following issues: preservation of rare, in danger of extinction and protected plant and animal species and their habitats; implementation of approved environmentally friendly practices in plant growing and animal husbandry; sustainable use...

  4. Environmental impact assessments and geological repositories: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, S.

    2000-01-01

    In a recent study carried out for the European Commission, the scope and application of environmental impact assessment (EIA) legislation and current EIA practice in European Union Member States and applicant countries of Central and Eastern Europe was investigated, specifically in relation to the geological disposal of radioactive waste. This paper reports the study's investigations into a model approach to EIA in the context of geological repositories, including the role of the assessment in the overall decision processes and public involvement. (author)

  5. Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qinghua; Huang, Zi-Gang; Wang, Yougui; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-09-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

  6. IDMS: inert dark matter model with a complex singlet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonilla, Cesar; Sokolowska, Dorota; Darvishi, Neda; Diaz-Cruz, J. Lorenzo; Krawczyk, Maria

    2016-06-01

    We study an extension of the inert doublet model (IDM) that includes an extra complex singlet of the scalars fields, which we call the IDMS. In this model there are three Higgs particles, among them a SM-like Higgs particle, and the lightest neutral scalar, from the inert sector, remains a viable dark matter (DM) candidate. We assume a non-zero complex vacuum expectation value for the singlet, so that the visible sector can introduce extra sources of CP violation. We construct the scalar potential of IDMS, assuming an exact Z 2 symmetry, with the new singlet being Z 2-even, as well as a softly broken U(1) symmetry, which allows a reduced number of free parameters in the potential. In this paper we explore the foundations of the model, in particular the masses and interactions of scalar particles for a few benchmark scenarios. Constraints from collider physics, in particular from the Higgs signal observed at the Large Hadron Collider with {M}h≈ 125 {{GeV}}, as well as constraints from the DM experiments, such as relic density measurements and direct detection limits, are included in the analysis. We observe significant differences with respect to the IDM in relic density values from additional annihilation channels, interference and resonance effects due to the extended Higgs sector.

  7. Complex Coronary Hemodynamics - Simple Analog Modelling as an Educational Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Gaurav R; Peter, Elvis; Kakouros, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    Invasive coronary angiography remains the cornerstone for evaluation of coronary stenoses despite there being a poor correlation between luminal loss assessment by coronary luminography and myocardial ischemia. This is especially true for coronary lesions deemed moderate by visual assessment. Coronary pressure-derived fractional flow reserve (FFR) has emerged as the gold standard for the evaluation of hemodynamic significance of coronary artery stenosis, which is cost effective and leads to improved patient outcomes. There are, however, several limitations to the use of FFR including the evaluation of serial stenoses. In this article, we discuss the electronic-hydraulic analogy and the utility of simple electrical modelling to mimic the coronary circulation and coronary stenoses. We exemplify the effect of tandem coronary lesions on the FFR by modelling of a patient with sequential disease segments and complex anatomy. We believe that such computational modelling can serve as a powerful educational tool to help clinicians better understand the complexity of coronary hemodynamics and improve patient care.

  8. Mathematical modeling of flow-injection techniques and their applications for environmental monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Begum, N.N.; Ahmed, J.

    2006-01-01

    A classification of the existing mathematical models of flow-injection (FI) manifolds based on the main principles on which they are built, have been proposed. Numerous mathematical models of FI systems employing ideas from different scientific areas (e.g. mathematical statistics, chemical engineering, chromatography) have been developed so far. The models have been compared with respect to their predictive power, the complexity of their mathematical treatment, and the requirements for computation time when applied to single-line, multi-channel and conjugated two-line FI systems. It is concluded that the axially dispersed plug flow model deserves special attention because it offers an acceptable compromise between the conflicting requirements for maximal possible mathematical simplicity and maximal possible precision. Applicability of these existing flow-injection models to single-line, multi-channel and conjugated two-line systems for environmental monitoring have been discussed. (author)

  9. Modeling the Propagation of Mobile Phone Virus under Complex Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Mobile phone virus is a rogue program written to propagate from one phone to another, which can take control of a mobile device by exploiting its vulnerabilities. In this paper the propagation model of mobile phone virus is tackled to understand how particular factors can affect its propagation and design effective containment strategies to suppress mobile phone virus. Two different propagation models of mobile phone viruses under the complex network are proposed in this paper. One is intended to describe the propagation of user-tricking virus, and the other is to describe the propagation of the vulnerability-exploiting virus. Based on the traditional epidemic models, the characteristics of mobile phone viruses and the network topology structure are incorporated into our models. A detailed analysis is conducted to analyze the propagation models. Through analysis, the stable infection-free equilibrium point and the stability condition are derived. Finally, considering the network topology, the numerical and simulation experiments are carried out. Results indicate that both models are correct and suitable for describing the spread of two different mobile phone viruses, respectively.

  10. Modeling the propagation of mobile phone virus under complex network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Wei, Xi-liang; Guo, Hao; An, Gang; Guo, Lei; Yao, Yu

    2014-01-01

    Mobile phone virus is a rogue program written to propagate from one phone to another, which can take control of a mobile device by exploiting its vulnerabilities. In this paper the propagation model of mobile phone virus is tackled to understand how particular factors can affect its propagation and design effective containment strategies to suppress mobile phone virus. Two different propagation models of mobile phone viruses under the complex network are proposed in this paper. One is intended to describe the propagation of user-tricking virus, and the other is to describe the propagation of the vulnerability-exploiting virus. Based on the traditional epidemic models, the characteristics of mobile phone viruses and the network topology structure are incorporated into our models. A detailed analysis is conducted to analyze the propagation models. Through analysis, the stable infection-free equilibrium point and the stability condition are derived. Finally, considering the network topology, the numerical and simulation experiments are carried out. Results indicate that both models are correct and suitable for describing the spread of two different mobile phone viruses, respectively.

  11. Modeling the Propagation of Mobile Phone Virus under Complex Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Wei; Wei, Xi-liang; Guo, Hao; An, Gang; Guo, Lei

    2014-01-01

    Mobile phone virus is a rogue program written to propagate from one phone to another, which can take control of a mobile device by exploiting its vulnerabilities. In this paper the propagation model of mobile phone virus is tackled to understand how particular factors can affect its propagation and design effective containment strategies to suppress mobile phone virus. Two different propagation models of mobile phone viruses under the complex network are proposed in this paper. One is intended to describe the propagation of user-tricking virus, and the other is to describe the propagation of the vulnerability-exploiting virus. Based on the traditional epidemic models, the characteristics of mobile phone viruses and the network topology structure are incorporated into our models. A detailed analysis is conducted to analyze the propagation models. Through analysis, the stable infection-free equilibrium point and the stability condition are derived. Finally, considering the network topology, the numerical and simulation experiments are carried out. Results indicate that both models are correct and suitable for describing the spread of two different mobile phone viruses, respectively. PMID:25133209

  12. Complex susceptibility of the cage model of polar liquids

    CERN Document Server

    Coffey, W T; Kalmykov, Yu P; Titov, S V

    2003-01-01

    The Langevin equations of motion of the cage model of polar liquids originally proposed by Hill (1963 Proc. Phys. Soc. 82 723) are solved for the first time for the particular case of rotation about a fixed axis, using a newly developed matrix continued fraction method. It is shown that the cage model predicts both the low-frequency Debye relaxation and a pronounced high-frequency (Poley) absorption peak in the far-infrared (FIR) region. The similarity of the equations of motion of the cage model to the equations which arise in the problem of generalizing the Onsager model of polar fluids to include a time-varying applied field suggests that the FIR (Poley) absorption may have its origins in the combined influence of molecular inertia and the torque due to the reaction field in the frequency-dependent version of the Onsager model. The complex susceptibility yielded by the cage model is shown to be in good agreement with experimental data on CH sub 3 Cl that were taken as a typical example. Moreover, a simple ...

  13. Surface complexation model of uranyl sorption on Georgia kaolinite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, T.E.; Davis, J.A.; Lumpkin, G.R.; Chisari, R.; Waite, T.D.

    2004-01-01

    The adsorption of uranyl on standard Georgia kaolinites (KGa-1 and KGa-1B) was studied as a function of pH (3-10), total U (1 and 10 ??mol/l), and mass loading of clay (4 and 40 g/l). The uptake of uranyl in air-equilibrated systems increased with pH and reached a maximum in the near-neutral pH range. At higher pH values, the sorption decreased due to the presence of aqueous uranyl carbonate complexes. One kaolinite sample was examined after the uranyl uptake experiments by transmission electron microscopy (TEM), using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) to determine the U content. It was found that uranium was preferentially adsorbed by Ti-rich impurity phases (predominantly anatase), which are present in the kaolinite samples. Uranyl sorption on the Georgia kaolinites was simulated with U sorption reactions on both titanol and aluminol sites, using a simple non-electrostatic surface complexation model (SCM). The relative amounts of U-binding >TiOH and >AlOH sites were estimated from the TEM/EDS results. A ternary uranyl carbonate complex on the titanol site improved the fit to the experimental data in the higher pH range. The final model contained only three optimised log K values, and was able to simulate adsorption data across a wide range of experimental conditions. The >TiOH (anatase) sites appear to play an important role in retaining U at low uranyl concentrations. As kaolinite often contains trace TiO2, its presence may need to be taken into account when modelling the results of sorption experiments with radionuclides or trace metals on kaolinite. ?? 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabian M Patricia

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%, which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens

  15. The genetic and environmental bases of complex human-disease: extending the utility of twin-studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas S Goodin

    Full Text Available Making only the assumption that twins are representative of the population from which they are drawn, we here develop a simple mathematical model (using widely available epidemiological information that sheds considerable light on the pathogenesis of complex human diseases. Specifically, for the case of multiple sclerosis (MS, we demonstrate that the vast majority of patients (≥94%, possibly all, require genetic susceptibility in order to get MS. Nevertheless, only a tiny fraction of the population (≤2.2% is actually susceptible to getting this disease; a finding which is highly consistent in all of the studied populations across both North America and Europe. Men are more likely to be susceptible than women although susceptible women are more than twice as likely to actually develop MS compared to susceptible men (i.e., they have a greater disease penetrance. This is because women are more responsive to the environmental factors involved in MS pathogenesis than men. These differences account for the current gender-ratio (3∶1, favoring women and also for the increasing incidence of MS in women around the world. By contrast, the most important genetic marker for MS susceptibility (DRB1*1501 influences the likelihood of susceptibility but not the penetrance of the disease. Nevertheless, even for this major susceptibility allele, only a very small fraction of DRB1*1501carriers (<5% are susceptible to getting MS and for only a minority of MS patients (∼41% does this allele contribute to their susceptibility. Moreover, each copy of this allele seems to make an independent contribution to susceptibility. Finally, at least three environmental events are necessary for MS pathogenesis and, during the course of their lives, the large majority of the population (≥69% experiences an environmental exposure, which is sufficient to produce MS in, at least, some susceptible genotypes. Also, susceptible men (compared to susceptible women have a lower

  16. Modelling of Electrokinetic Processes in Civil and Environmental Engineering Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical model for the electrokinetic phenomena is described. Numerical simulations of different applications of electrokinetic techniques to the fields of civil and environmental engineering are included, showing the versatility and consistency of the model. The electrokinetics phenomena c...... to hinder the acid penetration; and an acid-enhanced electrokinetic soil remediation process, where the basic front is neutralized in order to avoid the precipitation of hydroxides of the target heavy metal....... the porous materials undergoes an electroosmotic flow subject to externally applied electric fields. Electroosmotic transport makes electrokinetic techniques suitable for the mobilization of non-charged particles within the pore structure, such as the organic contaminants in soil. Chemical equilibrium...

  17. Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mantovan, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici

  18. Complex stochastic dynamics in the modeling of living systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesne, A.

    2010-01-01

    I will discuss on general grounds some specific aspects of living systems compared to physical ones and the ensuing requirements for their modeling. I will argue that a main specificity of living systems lies in their complex multilevel organization, in which emergent properties exert regulatory feedbacks onto the elements state spaces and rules of evolution. As an illustration, I will detail a scenario of metastasis formation (cancer cells escape from a primary tumor to form a secondary tumor) we recently proposed in collaboration with experimental cell biologists. (author)

  19. Complex Dynamics of an Adnascent-Type Game Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baogui Xin

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a nonlinear discrete game model for two oligopolistic firms whose products are adnascent. (In biology, the term adnascent has only one sense, “growing to or on something else,” e.g., “moss is an adnascent plant.” See Webster's Revised Unabridged Dictionary published in 1913 by C. & G. Merriam Co., edited by Noah Porter. The bifurcation of its Nash equilibrium is analyzed with Schwarzian derivative and normal form theory. Its complex dynamics is demonstrated by means of the largest Lyapunov exponents, fractal dimensions, bifurcation diagrams, and phase portraits. At last, bifurcation and chaos anticontrol of this system are studied.

  20. Dioxygen-activating bio-inorganic model complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, H C; Dahan, M; Karlin, K D

    1999-04-01

    The study of model compounds continues to significantly contribute to our understanding of the role of transition metals at the active sites of enzymes. Recent advances in the field include the use of mimics for enzymes that activate dioxygen, as dioxygen is not only manipulated in nature but also has industrial significance in metal-catalyzed oxidations of organics. Copper, nonheme and heme iron coordination complexes have been used to mimic reversible dioxygen-binding by the three classes of blood-oxygen carriers - hemocyanin, hemerythrin and hemoglobin/myoglobin - while functional mimics of oxygenases and oxidases with copper and iron have also provided key insights into important dioxygen activation processes.