WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling complex environmental

  1. A model for navigational errors in complex environmental fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Postlethwaite, Claire M; Walker, Michael M

    2014-12-21

    Many animals are believed to navigate using environmental signals such as light, sound, odours and magnetic fields. However, animals rarely navigate directly to their target location, but instead make a series of navigational errors which are corrected during transit. In previous work, we introduced a model showing that differences between an animal׳s 'cognitive map' of the environmental signals used for navigation and the true nature of these signals caused a systematic pattern in orientation errors when navigation begins. The model successfully predicted the pattern of errors seen in previously collected data from homing pigeons, but underestimated the amplitude of the errors. In this paper, we extend our previous model to include more complicated distortions of the contour lines of the environmental signals. Specifically, we consider the occurrence of critical points in the fields describing the signals. We consider three scenarios and compute orientation errors as parameters are varied in each case. We show that the occurrence of critical points can be associated with large variations in initial orientation errors over a small geographic area. We discuss the implications that these results have on predicting how animals will behave when encountering complex distortions in any environmental signals they use to navigate.

  2. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  3. Using environmental tracers in modeling flow in a complex shallow aquifer system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Lars; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard;

    2008-01-01

    Using environmental tracers in groundwater dating partly relies on the assumption that groundwater age distribution can be described analytically. To investigate the applicability of age dating in complex multiaquifer systems, a methodology for simulating well specific groundwater age distribution...... was developed. Using a groundwater model and particle tracking we modeled age distributions at screen locations. By enveloping modeled age distributions and estimated recharge concentrations, environmental tracer breakthroughs were simulated for specific screens. Simulated age distributions are of irregular...... by the heterogeneity of the model and by topographical variations as well. Analytically derived groundwater ages are dependent on sampling time. This time dependence relates to the nonlinearity of recharge concentrations and the shape and size of age distribution that has no coherence with the simplified assumptions...

  4. Groundwater flow pattern and related environmental phenomena in complex geologic setting based on integrated model construction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tóth, Ádám; Havril, Tímea; Simon, Szilvia; Galsa, Attila; Monteiro Santos, Fernando A.; Müller, Imre; Mádl-Szőnyi, Judit

    2016-08-01

    Groundwater flow, driven, controlled and determined by topography, geology and climate, is responsible for several natural surface manifestations and affected by anthropogenic processes. Therefore, flowing groundwater can be regarded as an environmental agent. Numerical simulation of groundwater flow could reveal the flow pattern and explain the observed features. In complex geologic framework, where the geologic-hydrogeologic knowledge is limited, the groundwater flow model could not be constructed based solely on borehole data, but geophysical information could aid the model building. The integrated model construction was presented via the case study of the Tihany Peninsula, Hungary, with the aims of understanding the background and occurrence of groundwater-related environmental phenomena, such as wetlands, surface water-groundwater interaction, slope instability, and revealing the potential effect of anthropogenic activity and climate change. The hydrogeologic model was prepared on the basis of the compiled archive geophysical database and the results of recently performed geophysical measurements complemented with geologic-hydrogeologic data. Derivation of different electrostratigraphic units, revealing fracturing and detecting tectonic elements was achieved by systematically combined electromagnetic geophysical methods. The deduced information can be used as model input for groundwater flow simulation concerning hydrostratigraphy, geometry and boundary conditions. The results of numerical modelling were interpreted on the basis of gravity-driven regional groundwater flow concept and validated by field mapping of groundwater-related phenomena. The 3D model clarified the hydraulic behaviour of the formations, revealed the subsurface hydraulic connection between groundwater and wetlands and displayed the groundwater discharge pattern, as well. The position of wetlands, their vegetation type, discharge features and induced landslides were explained as

  5. The Value of Conceptual Models in Coping with Complexity and Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Sciences Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortuin, Karen P. J.; van Koppen, C. S. A.; Leemans, Rik

    2011-01-01

    Conceptual models are useful for facing the challenges of environmental sciences curriculum and course developers and students. These challenges are inherent to the interdisciplinary and problem-oriented character of environmental sciences curricula. In this article, we review the merits of conceptual models in facing these challenges. These…

  6. The Value of Conceptual Models in Coping with Complexity and Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Sciences Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortuin, Karen P. J.; van Koppen, C. S. A.; Leemans, Rik

    2011-01-01

    Conceptual models are useful for facing the challenges of environmental sciences curriculum and course developers and students. These challenges are inherent to the interdisciplinary and problem-oriented character of environmental sciences curricula. In this article, we review the merits of conceptual models in facing these challenges. These…

  7. Can fuzzy logic bring complex problems into focus? Modeling imprecise factors in environmental policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKone, Thomas E.; Deshpande, Ashok W.

    2004-06-14

    In modeling complex environmental problems, we often fail to make precise statements about inputs and outcome. In this case the fuzzy logic method native to the human mind provides a useful way to get at these problems. Fuzzy logic represents a significant change in both the approach to and outcome of environmental evaluations. Risk assessment is currently based on the implicit premise that probability theory provides the necessary and sufficient tools for dealing with uncertainty and variability. The key advantage of fuzzy methods is the way they reflect the human mind in its remarkable ability to store and process information which is consistently imprecise, uncertain, and resistant to classification. Our case study illustrates the ability of fuzzy logic to integrate statistical measurements with imprecise health goals. But we submit that fuzzy logic and probability theory are complementary and not competitive. In the world of soft computing, fuzzy logic has been widely used and has often been the ''smart'' behind smart machines. But it will require more effort and case studies to establish its niche in risk assessment or other types of impact assessment. Although we often hear complaints about ''bright lines,'' could we adapt to a system that relaxes these lines to fuzzy gradations? Would decision makers and the public accept expressions of water or air quality goals in linguistic terms with computed degrees of certainty? Resistance is likely. In many regions, such as the US and European Union, it is likely that both decision makers and members of the public are more comfortable with our current system in which government agencies avoid confronting uncertainties by setting guidelines that are crisp and often fail to communicate uncertainty. But some day perhaps a more comprehensive approach that includes exposure surveys, toxicological data, epidemiological studies coupled with fuzzy modeling will go a long way in

  8. Environmental Factors Affecting Computer Assisted Language Learning Success: A Complex Dynamic Systems Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marek, Michael W.; Wu, Wen-Chi Vivian

    2014-01-01

    This conceptual, interdisciplinary inquiry explores Complex Dynamic Systems as the concept relates to the internal and external environmental factors affecting computer assisted language learning (CALL). Based on the results obtained by de Rosnay ["World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution", 67(4/5), 304-315 (2011)], who observed…

  9. Addressing the complexity of water chemistry in environmental fate modeling for engineered nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sani-Kast, Nicole; Scheringer, Martin; Slomberg, Danielle; Labille, Jérôme; Praetorius, Antonia; Ollivier, Patrick; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2015-12-01

    Engineered nanoparticle (ENP) fate models developed to date - aimed at predicting ENP concentration in the aqueous environment - have limited applicability because they employ constant environmental conditions along the modeled system or a highly specific environmental representation; both approaches do not show the effects of spatial and/or temporal variability. To address this conceptual gap, we developed a novel modeling strategy that: 1) incorporates spatial variability in environmental conditions in an existing ENP fate model; and 2) analyzes the effect of a wide range of randomly sampled environmental conditions (representing variations in water chemistry). This approach was employed to investigate the transport of nano-TiO2 in the Lower Rhône River (France) under numerous sets of environmental conditions. The predicted spatial concentration profiles of nano-TiO2 were then grouped according to their similarity by using cluster analysis. The analysis resulted in a small number of clusters representing groups of spatial concentration profiles. All clusters show nano-TiO2 accumulation in the sediment layer, supporting results from previous studies. Analysis of the characteristic features of each cluster demonstrated a strong association between the water conditions in regions close to the ENP emission source and the cluster membership of the corresponding spatial concentration profiles. In particular, water compositions favoring heteroaggregation between the ENPs and suspended particulate matter resulted in clusters of low variability. These conditions are, therefore, reliable predictors of the eventual fate of the modeled ENPs. The conclusions from this study are also valid for ENP fate in other large river systems. Our results, therefore, shift the focus of future modeling and experimental research of ENP environmental fate to the water characteristic in regions near the expected ENP emission sources. Under conditions favoring heteroaggregation in these

  10. Recent developments of surface complexation models applied to environmental aquatic chemistry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Based on numerous latest references, the current developments in surface complexation, surface precipitation and the corresponding models (SCMs and SPMs), were reviewed. The contents involved comparison on surface charge composition and layer-structure of solid-solution interface for the classical 1-pK and 2- pK models, In addition, the fundamental concept and relations of the new models, i.e., multi-site complexation (MUSIC) and charge -distribution (CD) MUSIC models were described as well. To avoid misuse or abuse, it must be emphasized that the applicability nd limitation for each model should be considered carefully when selecting the concerned model(s). In addition, some new powerful techniques for surface characterization and analysis applied to model establishment and modification were also briefly introduced.

  11. Modeling for planetary boundaries: a network analysis of representations of complex human-environmental interactions in integrated global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, Johannes; Fetzer, Ingo; Cornell, Sarah

    2016-04-01

    The planetary boundaries framework is an approach to global sustainability that emphasises non-linear threshold behavior in anthropogenically perturbed Earth system processes. However, knowledge about the characteristics and positions of thresholds, and the scope for management of the boundaries is not well established. Global integrated models can help to improve this understanding, by reflecting the complex feedbacks between human and environmental systems. This study analyses the current state of integrated models with regard to the main processes identified as 'critical Earth system processes' in the planetary boundaries framework, and identifies gaps and suggests priorities for future improvements. Our approach involves creating a common ontology of model descriptions, and performing a network analysis on the state of system integration in models. The distinct clusters of specific biophysical and social-economic systems obviously has enabled progress in those specific areas of global change, but it now constrains analysis of important human-driven Earth system dynamics. The modeling process therefore has to be improved through technical integration, scientific gap-filling, and also changes in scientific institutional dynamics. Combined, this can advance model potentials that may help us to find sustainable pathways within planetary boundaries.

  12. Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

    2015-04-01

    Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

  13. Building dynamic spatial environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karssenberg, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    An environmental model is a representation or imitation of complex natural phenomena that can be discerned by human cognitive processes. This thesis deals with the type of environmental models referred to as dynamic spatial environmental models. The word ‘spatial’ refers to the geographic domain whi

  14. Improved water resource management using three dimensional groundwater modelling for a highly complex environmental

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Affolter, Annette; Radny, Dirk; Auckenthaler, Adrian; Huggenberger, Peter; Schirmer, Mario

    2017-04-01

    Proper allocation and management of groundwater is an important and critical challenge under rising water demands of various environmental sectors but good groundwater quality is often limited because of urbanization and contamination of aquifers. Given the predictive capability of groundwater models, they are often the only viable means of providing input to water management decisions. However, modelling flow and transport processes can be difficult due to their unknown subsurface heterogeneity and typically unknown distribution of contaminants. As a result water resource management tasks are based on uncertain assumption on contaminants patterns and this uncertainty is typically not incorporated into the assessment of risks associated with different proposed management scenarios. A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area, where drinking water production is close to different former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water into the gravel aquifer is used to create a hydraulic barrier between contaminated sites and drinking water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction and magnitude between existing observation points using a newly developed three point estimation method for a large amount of scenarios was carried out. Due to the numerous observation points 32 triangles (three-points) were created which cover the entire area around the Hardwald. We demonstrated that systematically applying our developed methodology helps to identify important locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions and where additional protection is required without highly computational demanding transport modelling. The presented integrated approach using the flow direction

  15. Application of the AERMOD modeling system for environmental impact assessment of NO2 emissions from a cement complex

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kanyanee Seangkiatiyuth; Vanisa Surapipith; Kraichat Tantrakamapa; Anchaleeporn W. Lothongkum

    2011-01-01

    We applied the model of American Meteorological Society-Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model (AERMOD) as a tool for the analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) emissions from a cement complex as a part of the environmental impact assessment.The dispersion of NO2 from four cement plants within the selected cement complex were investigated both by measurement and AERMOD simulation in dry and wet seasons.Simulated values of NO2 emissions were compared with those obtained during a 7-day continuous measurement campaign at 12 receptors.It was predicted that NO2 concentration peaks were found more within 1 to 5 km, where the measurement and simulation were in good agreement, than at the receptors 5 km further away from the reference point.The QuantileQuantile plots of NO2 concentrations in dry season were mostly fitted to the middle line compared to those in wet season.This can be attributed to high NO2 wet deposition.The results show that for both the measurement and the simulation using the AERMOD, NO2 concentrations do not exceed the NO2 concentration limit set by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of Thailand.This indicates that NO2 emissions from the cement complex have no significant impact on nearby communities.It can be concluded that the AERMOD can provide useful information to identify high pollution impact areas for the EIA guidelines.

  16. Modelling highly variable environmental factors to assess potential microbial respiration in complex floodplain landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tritthart, Michael; Welti, Nina; Bondar-Kunze, Elisabeth; Pinay, Gilles; Hein, Thomas; Habersack, Helmut

    2011-01-01

    The hydrological exchange conditions strongly determine the biogeochemical dynamics in river systems. More specifically, the connectivity of surface waters between main channels and floodplains is directly controlling the delivery of organic matter and nutrients into the floodplains, where biogeochemical processes recycle them with high rates of activity. Hence, an in-depth understanding of the connectivity patterns between main channel and floodplains is important for the modelling of potential gas emissions in floodplain landscapes. A modelling framework that combines steady-state hydrodynamic simulations with long-term discharge hydrographs was developed to calculate water depths as well as statistical probabilities and event durations for every node of a computation mesh being connected to the main river. The modelling framework was applied to two study sites in the floodplains of the Austrian Danube River, East of Vienna. Validation of modelled flood events showed good agreement with gauge readings. Together with measured sediment properties, results of the validated connectivity model were used as basis for a predictive model yielding patterns of potential microbial respiration based on the best fit between characteristics of a number of sampling sites and the corresponding modelled parameters. Hot spots of potential microbial respiration were found in areas of lower connectivity if connected during higher discharges and areas of high water depths. PMID:27667961

  17. EMDS 3.0: A modeling framework for coping with complexity in environmental assessment and planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Keith M. Reynolds

    2006-01-01

    The Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS) system is an application framework for knowledge-based decision support of ecological assessments at any geographic scale. The system integrates state-of-the-art geographic information system(GIS) as well as knowledge-based reasoning and decision modeling technologies to provide decision support for a substantial portion of the adaptive management process of ecosystem management. EMDS 3.0 is implemented as an ArcMap(R) extension and integrates the logic engine of NetWeaver(R) to perform landscape evaluations, and the decision modeling engine of Criterium DecisionPlus(R) for evaluating management priorities. Key features of the system's evaluation component include abilities to (1) reason about large, abstract, multi-faceted ecosystem management problems, (2) perform useful evaluations with incomplete information, (3) evaluate the influence of missing information, and (4)determine priorities for missing information. A key feature of the planning component is the ability to determine priorities for management activities, taking into account not only ecosystem condition, but also criteria that account for the feasibility and efficacy of potential management actions. Both components include powerful and intuitive diagnostic features that facilitate communicating the explanation of modeling results to a broad audience.

  18. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  19. Integrated and spatially explicit modelling of the economic value of complex environmental change and its indirect effects

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; FERRINI, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Posen, Paulette

    2012-01-01

    Arguably the greatest challenge to contemporary research is to capture the inter-relatedness and complexity of the real world environment within models so at to better inform decision makers of the accurate and complete consequences of differing options. The paper presents an integrated model of the consequence of climate change upon land use and the secondary and subsequent effects arising subsequently. The model predicts the shift in land use which climate change is likely to induce and the...

  20. Intertextuality for Handling Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byhring, Anne Kristine; Knain, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Nowhere is the need for handling complexity more pertinent than in addressing environmental issues. Our study explores students' situated constructs of complexity in unfolding discourses on socio-scientific issues. Students' dialogues in two group-work episodes are analysed in detail, with tools from Systemic Functional Linguistics. We identify…

  1. Intertextuality for Handling Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byhring, Anne Kristine; Knain, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Nowhere is the need for handling complexity more pertinent than in addressing environmental issues. Our study explores students' situated constructs of complexity in unfolding discourses on socio-scientific issues. Students' dialogues in two group-work episodes are analysed in detail, with tools from Systemic Functional Linguistics. We identify…

  2. Mutation spectra of complex environmental mixtures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeMarini, D.M. [EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

    1997-10-01

    Bioassay-directed chemical analysis of complex environmental mixtures has indicated that much of the genotoxic activity of mixtures is due to the presence of one or a few classes or chemicals within the mixture. We have extended this observation to the molecular level by using colony probe hybridization and PCR/DNA sequence analysis to determine the mutation spectra of {approximately}8,000 revertants induced by a variety of complex mixtures and their chemical fractions in TA100 and TA98 of Salmonella. For urban air, >80% of mutagenic activity was due to a base/neutral fraction that contained primarily PAHs. The mutation spectrum induced by unfractionated urban air was not significantly different from that produced by a model PAH, B(a)P. The mutation spectrum induced by organic extracts of chlorinated drinking water were similar to those produced by the chlorinated furanone MX, which accounted for {approximately}20% of the mutagenic activity of the samples. The base/neutral fraction of municipal waste incinerator emissions accounted for the primary class of mutations induced by the emissions, and a polar neutral fraction accounted for the secondary class of mutations induced by the emissions. The primary class of mutations induced by cigarette smoke condensate in TA100 (GC {yields} TA) is also the primary class of mutations in the p53 gene of lung tumors of cigarette smokers. These results confirm at the molecular level that the mutations induced by a complex mixture reflect the dominance of one or a few classes of chemicals within the mixture.

  3. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  4. Complex matrix model duality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, T.W.

    2010-11-15

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

  5. Debating complexity in modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Zheng, Chunmiao

    1999-01-01

    Complexity in modeling would seem to be an issue of universal importance throughout the geosciences, perhaps throughout all science, if the debate last year among groundwater modelers is any indication. During the discussion the following questions and observations made up the heart of the debate.

  6. Modeling Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Boccara, Nino

    2010-01-01

    Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

  7. Understanding the complex interplay between tourism, disability and environmental contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Packer, Tanya L; McKercher, Bob; Yau, Matthew K

    2007-02-28

    To explore and describe the complex issues and factors related to participation in tourism as perceived by people with disabilities in Hong Kong. Naturalistic inquiry using key informant interviews and focus groups with 86 people with disabilities. Interviews were transcribed, translated and coded to develop themes and relationships. Triangulation of three investigators from different backgrounds occurred. The Process of Becoming Travel Active emerged as a six-stage process, intricately related to the personal/disability context and the environmental/travel context. Personal and environmental factors contribute to the six-stage model explaining the complex interplay between tourism, disability and environmental context. Understanding the complexity provides insight into ways to increase active participation in tourism. Health, tourism and disability sectors have a role to play in the development of accessible tourism.

  8. Environmental forecasting and turbulence modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, J. C. R.

    from the reductionist models or may be modeled specifically, for example, in terms of ‘self-organized’ critical phenomena. It is noted how in certain applications of turbulent modeling its methods are beginning to resemble those of environmental simulations, because of the trend to introduce ‘on-line’ controls of the turbulent flows in advanced flows in advanced engineering fluid systems. In real time simulations, for both local environmental processes and these engineering systems, maximum information is needed about the likely flow patterns in order to optimize both the assimilation of limited real-time data and the use of limited real-time computing capacity. It is concluded that philosophical studies of how scientific models develop and of the concept of determinism in science are helpful in considering these complex issues.

  9. Use of Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling to Generate User-Friendly Decision Support Systems for the Design of Management Policies for Complex Human-Environmental Systems: A Case Study from the Varied Socio-environmental Landscape of Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, J. J.; Baig, A. I.; Carrera, J.; Mellini, L.; Pineda, P.; Monterroso, O.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.; Adamowski, J. F.; Halbe, J.; Monardes, H.; Gálvez, J.

    2014-12-01

    The design of effective management policies for socioenvironmental systems requires the development of comprehensive, yet sufficiently simple, decision support systems (DSS) for policy makers. Guatemala is a particularly complex case, combining an enormous diversity of climates, geographies, and agroecosystems within a very small geographical scale. Although food insecurity levels are very high, indicating a generally inadequate management of the varied agroecosystems of the country, different regions have shown vastly different trends in food insecurity over the past decade, including between regions with similar geophysical and climatic characteristics and/or governmental programmes (e.g., agricultural support). These observations suggest two important points: firstly, that not merely environmental conditions but rather socio-environmental interactions play a crucial role in the successful management of human-environmental systems, and, secondly, that differences in the geophysical and climatic environments between the diverse regions significantly impact the success or failure of policies. This research uses participatory systems dynamic modelling (SDM) to build a DSS that allows local decision-makers to (1) determine the impact of current and potential policies on agroecosystem management and food security, and (2) design sustainable and resilient policies for the future. The use of participatory SDM offers several benefits, including the active involvement of the end recipients in the development of the model, greatly increasing its acceptability; the integration of physical (e.g., precipitation, crop yield) and social components in one model; adequacy for modelling long-term trends in response to particular policy decisions; and the inclusion of local stakeholder knowledge on system structure and trends through the participatory process. Preliminary results suggest that there is a set of common variables explaining the generally high levels of food insecurity

  10. Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

    2017-03-01

    Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C(α) RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Modeling and Simulating Environmental Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Guest, Peter S.; Murphree, Tom; Frederickson, Paul A.; Guest, Arlene A.

    2012-01-01

    MOVES Research & Education Systems Seminar: Presentation; Session 4: Collaborative NWDC/NPS M&S Research; Moderator: Curtis Blais; Modeling and Simulating Environmental Effects; speakers: Peter Guest, Paul Frederickson & Tom Murphree Environmental Effects Group

  12. Sporadic meteoroid complex: Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, V.

    2014-07-01

    The distribution of the sporadic meteoroids flux density over the celestial sphere is the common form of representation of the meteoroids distribution in the vicinity of the Earth's orbit. The determination of the flux density of sporadic meteor bodies is Q(V,e,f) = Q_0 P_e(V) P(e,f) where V is the meteoroid velocity, e,f are the radiant coordinates, Q_0 is the meteoroid flux over whole celestial sphere, P_e(V) is the conditional velocity distributions and P(e,f) is the radiant distribution over the celestial sphere. The sporadic meteoroid complex model is analytical and based on heliocentric velocities and radiant distributions. The multi-mode character of the heliocentric velocity and radiant distributions follows from the analysis of meteor observational data. This fact points to a complicated structure of the sporadic meteoroid complex. It is the consequence of the plurality of the parent bodies and the origin mechanisms of the meteoroids. The meteoroid complex was divided into four groups for that reason and with a goal of more accurate modelling of velocities and radiant distributions. As the classifying parameter to determine the meteoroid membership in any group, we adopt the Tisserand invariant relative to Jupiter T_J = 1/a + 2 A_J^{-3/2} √{a (1 - e^2)} cos i and the meteoroid orbit inclination i. Two meteoroid groups relate to long-period and short-period comets. One meteoroid group is related to asteroids. The relationship to the last, fourth group is a problematic one. Then, we construct models of radiant and velocity distributions for each group. The analytical model for the whole sporadic meteoroid complex is the sum of the ones for each group.

  13. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  14. Polystochastic Models for Complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Iordache, Octavian

    2010-01-01

    This book is devoted to complexity understanding and management, considered as the main source of efficiency and prosperity for the next decades. Divided into six chapters, the book begins with a presentation of basic concepts as complexity, emergence and closure. The second chapter looks to methods and introduces polystochastic models, the wave equation, possibilities and entropy. The third chapter focusing on physical and chemical systems analyzes flow-sheet synthesis, cyclic operations of separation, drug delivery systems and entropy production. Biomimetic systems represent the main objective of the fourth chapter. Case studies refer to bio-inspired calculation methods, to the role of artificial genetic codes, neural networks and neural codes for evolutionary calculus and for evolvable circuits as biomimetic devices. The fifth chapter, taking its inspiration from systems sciences and cognitive sciences looks to engineering design, case base reasoning methods, failure analysis, and multi-agent manufacturing...

  15. Advances in complex societal, environmental and engineered systems

    CERN Document Server

    Essaaidi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    This book addresses recent technological progress that has led to an increased complexity in many natural and artificial systems. The resulting complexity research due to the emergence of new properties and spatio-temporal interactions among a large number of system elements - and between the system and its environment - is the primary focus of this text. This volume is divided into three parts: Part one focuses on societal and ecological systems, Part two deals with approaches for understanding, modeling, predicting and mastering socio-technical systems, and Part three includes real-life examples. Each chapter has its own special features; it is a self-contained contribution of distinguished experts working on different fields of science and technology relevant to the study of complex systems. Advances in Complex Systems of Contemporary Reality: Societal, Environmental and Engineered Systems will provide postgraduate students, researchers and managers with qualitative and quantitative methods for handling th...

  16. Modelling Complexity in Musical Rhythm

    OpenAIRE

    Liou, Cheng-Yuan; Wu, Tai-Hei; Lee, Chia-Ying

    2007-01-01

    This paper constructs a tree structure for the music rhythm using the L-system. It models the structure as an automata and derives its complexity. It also solves the complexity for the L-system. This complexity can resolve the similarity between trees. This complexity serves as a measure of psychological complexity for rhythms. It resolves the music complexity of various compositions including the Mozart effect K488. Keyword: music perception, psychological complexity, rhythm, L-system, autom...

  17. Environmental forensic research for emerging contaminants in complex environmental matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency has established criteria to address many of the significant traditional pollutants demonstrated to have adverse affects on environmental quality. However, new chemicals are being created almost daily, and these new chemicals, as ...

  18. Environmental forensic research for emerging contaminants in complex environmental matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency has established criteria to address many of the significant traditional pollutants demonstrated to have adverse affects on environmental quality. However, new chemicals are being created almost daily, and these new chemicals, as ...

  19. Complexity regularized hydrological model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Bastidas, L.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a recently proposed measure of hydrological model complexity in a model selection exercise. It demonstrates that a robust hydrological model is selected by penalizing model complexity while maximizing a model performance measure. This especially holds when limited data is available.

  20. Complexity regularized hydrological model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pande, S.; Arkesteijn, L.; Bastidas, L.A.

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a recently proposed measure of hydrological model complexity in a model selection exercise. It demonstrates that a robust hydrological model is selected by penalizing model complexity while maximizing a model performance measure. This especially holds when limited data is available.

  1. Complex Evaluation Model of Corporate Energy Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ágnes Kádár Horváth

    2014-01-01

    With the ever increasing energy problems at the doorstep alongside with political, economic, social and environmental challenges, conscious energy management has become of increasing importance in corporate resource management. Rising energy costs, stricter environmental and climate regulations as well as considerable changes in the energy market require companies to rationalise their energy consumption and cut energy costs. This study presents a complex evaluation model of corporate energy m...

  2. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  3. Environmental Perception as a Diagnostic Probe of Environmental Complexity Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Mirlaine R.; Macedo, Renato L. G.; Freitas, Matheus P.; Nunes, Cleiton A.; Venturin, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Educational methods to diagnose and improve the level of environmental conception are required. The present work reports a methodology based on studies about the environmental perception of a university public, divided into general students and those related to the forest sciences, who are involved with disciplines and researches related…

  4. Environmental Perception as a Diagnostic Probe of Environmental Complexity Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Mirlaine R.; Macedo, Renato L. G.; Freitas, Matheus P.; Nunes, Cleiton A.; Venturin, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Educational methods to diagnose and improve the level of environmental conception are required. The present work reports a methodology based on studies about the environmental perception of a university public, divided into general students and those related to the forest sciences, who are involved with disciplines and researches related…

  5. Computer Model Locates Environmental Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Catherine Huybrechts Burton founded San Francisco-based Endpoint Environmental (2E) LLC in 2005 while she was a student intern and project manager at Ames Research Center with NASA's DEVELOP program. The 2E team created the Tire Identification from Reflectance model, which algorithmically processes satellite images using turnkey technology to retain only the darkest parts of an image. This model allows 2E to locate piles of rubber tires, which often are stockpiled illegally and cause hazardous environmental conditions and fires.

  6. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa, E-mail: suelip@ird.gov.br, E-mail: dejanira@irg.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Servico de Avaliacao de Impacto Ambiental, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Mahler, Claudio Fernando [Coppe. Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pos-Graduacao e Pesquisa de Engenharia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) - Programa de Engenharia Civil, RJ (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for {sup 137}Cs and {sup 60}Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  7. Modelling of Complex Plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akdim, Mohamed Reda

    2003-09-01

    Nowadays plasmas are used for various applications such as the fabrication of silicon solar cells, integrated circuits, coatings and dental cleaning. In the case of a processing plasma, e.g. for the fabrication of amorphous silicon solar cells, a mixture of silane and hydrogen gas is injected in a reactor. These gases are decomposed by making a plasma. A plasma with a low degree of ionization (typically 10_5) is usually made in a reactor containing two electrodes driven by a radio-frequency (RF) power source in the megahertz range. Under the right circumstances the radicals, neutrals and ions can react further to produce nanometer sized dust particles. The particles can stick to the surface and thereby contribute to a higher deposition rate. Another possibility is that the nanometer sized particles coagulate and form larger micron sized particles. These particles obtain a high negative charge, due to their large radius and are usually trapped in a radiofrequency plasma. The electric field present in the discharge sheaths causes the entrapment. Such plasmas are called dusty or complex plasmas. In this thesis numerical models are presented which describe dusty plasmas in reactive and nonreactive plasmas. We started first with the development of a simple one-dimensional silane fluid model where a dusty radio-frequency silane/hydrogen discharge is simulated. In the model, discharge quantities like the fluxes, densities and electric field are calculated self-consistently. A radius and an initial density profile for the spherical dust particles are given and the charge and the density of the dust are calculated with an iterative method. During the transport of the dust, its charge is kept constant in time. The dust influences the electric field distribution through its charge and the density of the plasma through recombination of positive ions and electrons at its surface. In the model this process gives an extra production of silane radicals, since the growth of dust is

  8. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R.; Gimeno, B. S.; Bermejo, V.; Elvira, S.; Martin, F.; Palacios, M.; Rodriguez, E.; Donaire, I. [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  9. Uncertainty reduction and characterization for complex environmental fate and transport models: An empirical Bayesian framework incorporating the stochastic response surface method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balakrishnan, Suhrid; Roy, Amit; Ierapetritou, Marianthi G.; Flach, Gregory P.; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2003-12-01

    In this work, a computationally efficient Bayesian framework for the reduction and characterization of parametric uncertainty in computationally demanding environmental 3-D numerical models has been developed. The framework is based on the combined application of the Stochastic Response Surface Method (SRSM, which generates accurate and computationally efficient statistically equivalent reduced models) and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The application selected to demonstrate this framework involves steady state groundwater flow at the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site General Separations Area, modeled using the Subsurface Flow And Contaminant Transport (FACT) code. Input parameter uncertainty, based initially on expert opinion, was found to decrease in all variables of the posterior distribution. The joint posterior distribution obtained was then further used for the final uncertainty analysis of the stream base flows and well location hydraulic head values.

  10. Environmental modeling framework invasiveness: analysis and implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental modeling frameworks support scientific model development by providing an Application Programming Interface (API) which model developers use to implement models. This paper presents results of an investigation on the framework invasiveness of environmental modeling frameworks. Invasiven...

  11. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...... that the EEA model can be used in global organizations to differentiate environmental efforts depending on the maturity stage of the individual sites. Furthermore, the model can be used to support the decision-making process regarding when organizations should embark on more complex environmental efforts...... to continue to realize excellent environmental results. Finally, a development trajectory for environmental excellence is presented....

  12. Communication models in environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidotti, Tee L

    2013-01-01

    Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

  13. Appropriate complexity landscape modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Eppinga, Maarten B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834971; Passalacqua, Paola; Getz, Wayne M.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Liang, Man

    2016-01-01

    Advances in computing technology, new and ongoing restoration initiatives, concerns about climate change's effects, and the increasing interdisciplinarity of research have encouraged the development of landscape-scale mechanistic models of coupled ecological-geophysical systems. However, communicati

  14. Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

  15. The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James G Dyke

    Full Text Available The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

  16. Challenges in Modelling of Environmental Semantics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Athanasiadis, I.N.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling environmental semantics is a prerequisite for model and data interoperabilty and reuse, both essential for integrated modelling. This paper previews a landscape where integrated modelling activities are performed in a virtual environmental information space, and identifies challenges impos

  17. Environmental Observatories and Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, R. P.; Duncan, J. M.

    2006-12-01

    During the past several years, the environmental sciences community has been attempting to design large- scale obsevatories that will transform the science. A watershed-based observatory has emerged as an effective landscape unit for a broad range of environmental sciences and engineering. For an effective observatory, modeling is a central requirement because models are precise statements of the hypothesized conceptual organization of watersheds and of the processes believed to be controlling hydrology of the watershed. Furthermore, models can serve to determine the value of existing data and the incremental value of any additional data to be collected. Given limited resources, such valuation is mandatory for an objective design of an observatory. Modeling is one part of a "digital watershed" that must be constructed for any observatory, a concept that has been developed by the CUAHSI Hydrologic Information Systems project. A digital watershed has three functions. First, it permits assembly of time series (such as stream discharge or precipitation measurements), static spatial coverages (such as topography), and dynamic fields (such as precipitation radar and other remotely sensed data). Second, based upon this common data description, a digital observatory permits multiple conceptualizations of the observatory to be created and to be stored. These conceptualizations could range from lumped box-and-arrow watershed models, to semi-distributed topographically based models, to three-dimensional finite element models. Finally, each conceptualization can lead to multiple models--that is, a set of equations that quantitatively describe hydrologic (or biogeochemical or geomorphologic) processes through libraries of tools that can be linked as workflow sequences. The advances in cyberinfrastructure that allow the storage of multiple conceptualizations and multiple model formulations of these conceptualizations promise to accelerate advances in environmental science both

  18. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  19. Testing and validating environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchner, J.W.; Hooper, R.P.; Kendall, C.; Neal, C.; Leavesley, G.

    1996-01-01

    Generally accepted standards for testing and validating ecosystem models would benefit both modellers and model users. Universally applicable test procedures are difficult to prescribe, given the diversity of modelling approaches and the many uses for models. However, the generally accepted scientific principles of documentation and disclosure provide a useful framework for devising general standards for model evaluation. Adequately documenting model tests requires explicit performance criteria, and explicit benchmarks against which model performance is compared. A model's validity, reliability, and accuracy can be most meaningfully judged by explicit comparison against the available alternatives. In contrast, current practice is often characterized by vague, subjective claims that model predictions show 'acceptable' agreement with data; such claims provide little basis for choosing among alternative models. Strict model tests (those that invalid models are unlikely to pass) are the only ones capable of convincing rational skeptics that a model is probably valid. However, 'false positive' rates as low as 10% can substantially erode the power of validation tests, making them insufficiently strict to convince rational skeptics. Validation tests are often undermined by excessive parameter calibration and overuse of ad hoc model features. Tests are often also divorced from the conditions under which a model will be used, particularly when it is designed to forecast beyond the range of historical experience. In such situations, data from laboratory and field manipulation experiments can provide particularly effective tests, because one can create experimental conditions quite different from historical data, and because experimental data can provide a more precisely defined 'target' for the model to hit. We present a simple demonstration showing that the two most common methods for comparing model predictions to environmental time series (plotting model time series

  20. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  1. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...

  2. Complexity and interdisciplinary approaches to environmental research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    2013-03-01

    The launch of volume 8 of Environmental Research Letters (ERL) comes at a critical time in terms of innovations and exciting areas of science, but particularly in the areas linking environmental research and action. The most recent climate change Conference of the Parties meeting (COP), in Doha in December 2012, has now come and gone. As has been dissected in the press, very little was accomplished. Some will see this as a failure, as I do, and others will reasonably enough note that this meeting, the 18th such COP was1 never intended to be a milestone moment. The current plan, in fact, is for a 'post-Kyoto' international climate agreement to be adopted only at the COP20 summit in December 2015. As we lead up to COP20, and potentially other regional or national approaches to climate protection, innovations in science, innovations in policy tools, and political commitment must come together. The science of climate change only continues to get clearer and clearer, and bleaker [1]. Later this year the IPCC will release its Fifth Assessment Report, AR5. The draft versions are out for review now. ERL has published a number of papers on climate change science, mitigation and adaptation, but one area where the world needs a particular focus is on the nexus of science and action. A summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings from the first assessment report (FAR; 1990) to the latest report is presented in figure 1. This graphic is specifically not about the scientific record alone. What is most important about this figure is the juxtaposition of the language of science and the language of ... language. Figure 1. Figure 1. A superposition of the state of climate science in three key data sets, and the dates of the first, second, third and fourth assessment reports (FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4, respectively) plotted as vertical lines. On the right are the key statements from each of these reports, along with the conclusion of the Special Report on

  3. Pluralistic Modeling of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Helbing, Dirk

    2010-01-01

    The modeling of complex systems such as ecological or socio-economic systems can be very challenging. Although various modeling approaches exist, they are generally not compatible and mutually consistent, and empirical data often do not allow one to decide what model is the right one, the best one, or most appropriate one. Moreover, as the recent financial and economic crisis shows, relying on a single, idealized model can be very costly. This contribution tries to shed new light on problems that arise when complex systems are modeled. While the arguments can be transferred to many different systems, the related scientific challenges are illustrated for social, economic, and traffic systems. The contribution discusses issues that are sometimes overlooked and tries to overcome some frequent misunderstandings and controversies of the past. At the same time, it is highlighted how some long-standing scientific puzzles may be solved by considering non-linear models of heterogeneous agents with spatio-temporal inte...

  4. Amphibians as models for studying environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, William A

    2007-01-01

    The use of amphibians as models in ecological research has a rich history. From an early foundation in studies of amphibian natural history sprang generations of scientists who used amphibians as models to address fundamental questions in population and community ecology. More recently, in the wake of an environment that human disturbances rapidly altered, ecologists have adopted amphibians as models for studying applied ecological issues such as habitat loss, pollution, disease, and global climate change. Some of the characteristics of amphibians that make them useful models for studying these environmental problems are highlighted, including their trophic importance, environmental sensitivity, research tractability, and impending extinction. The article provides specific examples from the recent literature to illustrate how studies on amphibians have been instrumental in guiding scientific thought on a broad scale. Included are examples of how amphibian research has transformed scientific disciplines, generated new theories about global health, called into question widely accepted scientific paradigms, and raised awareness in the general public that our daily actions may have widespread repercussions. In addition, studies on amphibian declines have provided insight into the complexity in which multiple independent factors may interact with one another to produce catastrophic and sometimes unpredictable effects. Because of the complexity of these problems, amphibian ecologists have been among the strongest advocates for interdisciplinary research. Future studies of amphibians will be important not only for their conservation but also for the conservation of other species, critical habitats, and entire ecosystems.

  5. A complex social-ecological disaster: Environmentally induced forced migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rechkemmer, Andreas; O'Connor, Ashley; Rai, Abha; Decker Sparks, Jessica L; Mudliar, Pranietha; Shultz, James M

    2016-01-01

    In the 21(st) century, global issues are increasingly characterized by inter-connectedness and complexity. Global environmental change, and climate change in particular, has become a powerful driver and catalyst of forced migration and internal displacement of people. Environmental migrants may far outnumber any other group of displaced people and refugees in the years to come. Deeper scientific integration, especially across the social sciences, is a prerequisite to tackle this issue.

  6. A complex social-ecological disaster: Environmentally induced forced migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rechkemmer, Andreas; O'Connor, Ashley; Rai, Abha; Decker Sparks, Jessica L.; Mudliar, Pranietha; Shultz, James M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT In the 21st century, global issues are increasingly characterized by inter-connectedness and complexity. Global environmental change, and climate change in particular, has become a powerful driver and catalyst of forced migration and internal displacement of people. Environmental migrants may far outnumber any other group of displaced people and refugees in the years to come. Deeper scientific integration, especially across the social sciences, is a prerequisite to tackle this issue.

  7. Health and environmental effects of complex chemical mixtures: proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) of the Department of Energy supports a broad long-term research program on human health and environmental effects from potential exposure to energy-related complex chemical mixtures. The program seeks basic mechanistic data on the effects of complex mixtures at the cellular, molecular, and whole animal levels to aid in predicting human health effects and seeks ecological data on biological and physical transformations in the mixtures, concentrations of the mixtures in various compartments of the environment, and potential routes for human exposure to these mixtures (e.g., food chain). On June 17-18, 1985, OHER held its First Annual Technical Meeting on the Complex Chemical Mixtures Program in Chicago, IL. The primary purpose of the meeting was to enable principal investigators to report the research status and accomplishments of ongoing complex chemical mixture studies supported by OHER. To help focus future research directions round table discussions were conducted.

  8. Spatiotemporal Interpolation for Environmental Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferry Susanto

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available A variation of the reduction-based approach to spatiotemporal interpolation (STI, in which time is treated independently from the spatial dimensions, is proposed in this paper. We reviewed and compared three widely-used spatial interpolation techniques: ordinary kriging, inverse distance weighting and the triangular irregular network. We also proposed a new distribution-based distance weighting (DDW spatial interpolation method. In this study, we utilised one year of Tasmania’s South Esk Hydrology model developed by CSIRO. Root mean squared error statistical methods were performed for performance evaluations. Our results show that the proposed reduction approach is superior to the extension approach to STI. However, the proposed DDW provides little benefit compared to the conventional inverse distance weighting (IDW method. We suggest that the improved IDW technique, with the reduction approach used for the temporal dimension, is the optimal combination for large-scale spatiotemporal interpolation within environmental modelling applications.

  9. Spatiotemporal Interpolation for Environmental Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susanto, Ferry; de Souza, Paulo; He, Jing

    2016-08-06

    A variation of the reduction-based approach to spatiotemporal interpolation (STI), in which time is treated independently from the spatial dimensions, is proposed in this paper. We reviewed and compared three widely-used spatial interpolation techniques: ordinary kriging, inverse distance weighting and the triangular irregular network. We also proposed a new distribution-based distance weighting (DDW) spatial interpolation method. In this study, we utilised one year of Tasmania's South Esk Hydrology model developed by CSIRO. Root mean squared error statistical methods were performed for performance evaluations. Our results show that the proposed reduction approach is superior to the extension approach to STI. However, the proposed DDW provides little benefit compared to the conventional inverse distance weighting (IDW) method. We suggest that the improved IDW technique, with the reduction approach used for the temporal dimension, is the optimal combination for large-scale spatiotemporal interpolation within environmental modelling applications.

  10. Computational models of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Dabbaghian, Vahid

    2014-01-01

    Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

  11. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production......The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... and HIRLAM predictions. The statistical models belong to the class of conditional parametric models. The models are estimated using local polynomial regression, but the estimation method is here extended to be adaptive in order to allow for slow changes in the system e.g. caused by the annual variations...

  12. Environmental model for a capital city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

  13. Habitat complexity, environmental change and personality: A tropical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pamela Delarue, Emma Michelle; Kerr, Sarah Emily; Lee Rymer, Tasmin

    2015-11-01

    Tropical rainforests are species-rich, complex ecosystems. They are increasingly being negatively affected by anthropogenic activity, which is rapidly and unpredictably altering their structure and complexity. These changes in habitat state may expose tropical animals to novel and unpredictable conditions, potentially increasing their extinction risk. However, an animal's ability to cope with environmental change may be linked to its personality. While numerous studies have investigated environmental influences on animal personalities, few are focused on tropical species. In this review, we consider how behavioural syndromes in tropical species might facilitate coping under, and adapting to, increasing disturbance. Given the complexity of tropical rainforests, we first discuss how habitat complexity influences personality traits and physiological stress in general. We then explore the ecological and evolutionary implications of personality in the tropics in the context of behavioural flexibility, range expansion and speciation. Finally, we discuss the impact that anthropogenic environmental change may have on the ecological integrity of tropical rainforests, positing scenarios for species persistence. Maintaining tropical rainforest complexity is crucial for driving behavioural flexibility and personality type, both of which are likely to be key factors facilitating long term persistence in disturbed habitats.

  14. Environmental layout complexity affects neural activity during navigation in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slone, Edward; Burles, Ford; Iaria, Giuseppe

    2016-05-01

    Navigating large-scale surroundings is a fundamental ability. In humans, it is commonly assumed that navigational performance is affected by individual differences, such as age, sex, and cognitive strategies adopted for orientation. We recently showed that the layout of the environment itself also influences how well people are able to find their way within it, yet it remains unclear whether differences in environmental complexity are associated with changes in brain activity during navigation. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate how the brain responds to a change in environmental complexity by asking participants to perform a navigation task in two large-scale virtual environments that differed solely in interconnection density, a measure of complexity defined as the average number of directional choices at decision points. The results showed that navigation in the simpler, less interconnected environment was faster and more accurate relative to the complex environment, and such performance was associated with increased activity in a number of brain areas (i.e. precuneus, retrosplenial cortex, and hippocampus) known to be involved in mental imagery, navigation, and memory. These findings provide novel evidence that environmental complexity not only affects navigational behaviour, but also modulates activity in brain regions that are important for successful orientation and navigation.

  15. Complex Networks in Psychological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.

    We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.

  16. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...... for complex networks can be derived and point out relevant literature....

  17. Thermodynamic modeling of complex systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Xiaodong

    Offshore reservoirs represent one of the major growth areas of the oil and gas industry, and environmental safety is one of the biggest challenges for the offshore exploration and production. The oil accidents in the Gulf of Mexico in 1979 and 2010 were two of the biggest disasters in history...... after an oil spill. Engineering thermodynamics could be applied in the state-of-the-art sonar products through advanced artificial technology, if the speed of sound, solubility and density of oil-seawater systems could be satisfactorily modelled. The addition of methanol or glycols into unprocessed well...

  18. Complex fluids modeling and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Saramito, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a comprehensive overview of the modeling of complex fluids, including many common substances, such as toothpaste, hair gel, mayonnaise, liquid foam, cement and blood, which cannot be described by Navier-Stokes equations. It also offers an up-to-date mathematical and numerical analysis of the corresponding equations, as well as several practical numerical algorithms and software solutions for the approximation of the solutions. It discusses industrial (molten plastics, forming process), geophysical (mud flows, volcanic lava, glaciers and snow avalanches), and biological (blood flows, tissues) modeling applications. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, mechanical engineering and physics.

  19. Connected Worlds: Connecting the public with complex environmental systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzzo, S. M.; Chen, R. S.; Downs, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    Among the most important concepts in environmental science learning is the structure and dynamics of coupled human and natural systems (CHANS). But the fundamental epistemology for understanding CHANS requires systems thinking, interdisciplinarity, and complexity. Although the Next Generation Science Standards mandate connecting ideas across disciplines and systems, traditional approaches to education do not provide more than superficial understanding of this concept. Informal science learning institutions have a key role in bridging gaps between the reductive nature of classroom learning and contemporary data-driven science. The New York Hall of Science, in partnership with Design I/O and Columbia University's Center for International Earth Science Information Network, has developed an approach to immerse visitors in complex human nature interactions and provide opportunities for those of all ages to elicit and notice environmental consequences of their actions. Connected Worlds is a nearly 1,000 m2 immersive, playful environment in which students learn about complexity and interconnectedness in ecosystems and how ecosystems might respond to human intervention. It engages students through direct interactions with fanciful flora and fauna within and among six biomes: desert, rainforest, grassland, mountain valley, reservoir, and wetlands, which are interconnected through stocks and flows of water. Through gestures and the manipulation of a dynamic water system, Connected Worlds enables students, teachers, and parents to experience how the ecosystems of planet Earth are connected and to observe relationships between the behavior of Earth's inhabitants and our shared world. It is also a cyberlearning platform to study how visitors notice and scaffold their understanding of complex environmental processes and the responses of these processes to human intervention, to help inform the improvement of education practices in complex environmental science.

  20. Hybrid models for complex fluids

    CERN Document Server

    Tronci, Cesare

    2010-01-01

    This paper formulates a new approach to complex fluid dynamics, which accounts for microscopic statistical effects in the micromotion. While the ordinary fluid variables (mass density and momentum) undergo usual dynamics, the order parameter field is replaced by a statistical distribution on the order parameter space. This distribution depends also on the point in physical space and its dynamics retains the usual fluid transport features while containing the statistical information on the order parameter space. This approach is based on a hybrid moment closure for Yang-Mills Vlasov plasmas, which replaces the usual cold-plasma assumption. After presenting the basic properties of the hybrid closure, such as momentum map features, singular solutions and Casimir invariants, the effect of Yang-Mills fields is considered and a direct application to ferromagnetic fluids is presented. Hybrid models are also formulated for complex fluids with symmetry breaking. For the special case of liquid crystals, a hybrid formul...

  1. Environmental problems indicator under environmental modeling toward sustainable development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Sutthichaimethee

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply a model to the study and analysis of environmental and natural resource costs created in supply chains of goods and services produced in Thailand, and propose indicators for environmental problem management, caused by goods and services production, based on concepts of sustainable production and consumer behavior. The research showed that the highest environmental cost in terms of Natural Resource Materials was from pipelines and gas distribution, while the lowest was for farming coconuts. The highest environmental cost in terms of Energy and Transportation was for iron and steel. The highest environmental cost in the category of Fertilizer and Pesticides was for oil palm. For Sanitation Services, the highest environmental cost was movie theaters. Overall, the lowest environmental cost for all categories, except Natural Resource Materials, was for petroleum and refineries. Based on the cost index, coconut farming gained the highest Real Benefit to the farm owner, while pipelines and gas distribution had the lowest Real Benefit. If Thailand were to use a similar environmental problem indicator, it could be applied to formulate efficient policy and strategy for the country in three areas, namely social, economic, and environmental development.

  2. Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyler, David Clinton

    1984-01-01

    Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

  3. Modeling Environmental Concern: Theory and Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackett, Paul M. W.

    1993-01-01

    Human concern for the quality and protection of the natural environment forms the basis of successful environmental conservation activities. Considers environmental concern research and proposes a model that incorporates the multiple dimensions of research through which environmental concern may be evaluated. (MDH)

  4. Environmental Uncertainty and Communication Network Complexity: A Cross-System, Cross-Cultural Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danowski, James

    An infographic model is proposed to account for the operation of systems within their information environments. Infographics is a communication paradigm used to indicate the clustering of information processing variables in communication systems. Four propositions concerning environmental uncertainty and internal communication network complexity,…

  5. Complexity Metrics for Spreadsheet Models

    CERN Document Server

    Bregar, Andrej

    2008-01-01

    Several complexity metrics are described which are related to logic structure, data structure and size of spreadsheet models. They primarily concentrate on the dispersion of cell references and cell paths. Most metrics are newly defined, while some are adapted from traditional software engineering. Their purpose is the identification of cells which are liable to errors. In addition, they can be used to estimate the values of dependent process metrics, such as the development duration and effort, and especially to adjust the cell error rate in accordance with the contents of each individual cell, in order to accurately asses the reliability of a model. Finally, two conceptual constructs - the reference branching condition cell and the condition block - are discussed, aiming at improving the reliability, modifiability, auditability and comprehensibility of logical tests.

  6. Integrated computational and conceptual solutions for complex environmental information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rückemann, Claus-Peter

    2016-06-01

    This paper presents the recent results of the integration of computational and conceptual solutions for the complex case of environmental information management. The solution for the major goal of creating and developing long-term multi-disciplinary knowledge resources and conceptual and computational support was achieved by implementing and integrating key components. The key components are long-term knowledge resources providing required structures for universal knowledge creation, documentation, and preservation, universal multi-disciplinary and multi-lingual conceptual knowledge and classification, especially, references to Universal Decimal Classification (UDC), sustainable workflows for environmental information management, and computational support for dynamical use, processing, and advanced scientific computing with Integrated Information and Computing System (IICS) components and High End Computing (HEC) resources.

  7. Improved environmental multimedia modeling and its sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Jing; Elektorowicz, Maria; Chen, Zhi

    2011-01-01

    Modeling of multimedia environmental issues is extremely complex due to the intricacy of the systems with the consideration of many factors. In this study, an improved environmental multimedia modeling is developed and a number of testing problems related to it are examined and compared with each other with standard numerical and analytical methodologies. The results indicate the flux output of new model is lesser in the unsaturated zone and groundwater zone compared with the traditional environmental multimedia model. Furthermore, about 90% of the total benzene flux was distributed to the air zone from the landfill sources and only 10% of the total flux emitted into the unsaturated, groundwater zones in non-uniform conditions. This paper also includes functions of model sensitivity analysis to optimize model parameters such as Peclet number (Pe). The analyses results show that the Pe can be considered as deterministic input variables for transport output. The oscillatory behavior is eliminated with the Pe decreased. In addition, the numerical methods are more accurate than analytical methods with the Pe increased. In conclusion, the improved environmental multimedia model system and its sensitivity analysis can be used to address the complex fate and transport of the pollutants in multimedia environments and then help to manage the environmental impacts.

  8. Mechanism of toxicity of pesticides acting at complex I: relevance to environmental etiologies of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherer, Todd B; Richardson, Jason R; Testa, Claudia M; Seo, Byoung Boo; Panov, Alexander V; Yagi, Takao; Matsuno-Yagi, Akemi; Miller, Gary W; Greenamyre, J Timothy

    2007-03-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) has been linked to mitochondrial dysfunction and pesticide exposure. The pesticide rotenone (ROT) inhibits complex I and reproduces features of PD in animal models, suggesting that environmental agents that inhibit complex I may contribute to PD. We have previously demonstrated that ROT toxicity is dependent upon complex I inhibition and that oxidative stress is the primary mechanism of toxicity. In this study, we examined the in vitro toxicity and mechanism of action of several putative complex I inhibitors that are commonly used as pesticides. The rank order of toxicity of pesticides to neuroblastoma cells was pyridaben > rotenone > fenpyroximate > fenazaquin > tebunfenpyrad. A similar order of potency was observed for reduction of ATP levels and competition for (3)H-dihydrorotenone (DHR) binding to complex I, with the exception of pyridaben (PYR). Neuroblastoma cells stably expressing the ROT-insensitive NADH dehydrogenase of Saccharomyces cerevisiae (NDI1) were resistant to these pesticides, demonstrating the requirement of complex I inhibition for toxicity. We further found that PYR was a more potent inhibitor of mitochondrial respiration and caused more oxidative damage than ROT. The oxidative damage could be attenuated by NDI1 or by the antioxidants alpha-tocopherol and coenzyme Q(10). PYR was also highly toxic to midbrain organotypic slices. These data demonstrate that, in addition to ROT, several commercially used pesticides directly inhibit complex I, cause oxidative damage, and suggest that further study is warranted into environmental agents that inhibit complex I for their potential role in PD.

  9. Teacher Modeling Using Complex Informational Texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Douglas; Frey, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    Modeling in complex texts requires that teachers analyze the text for factors of qualitative complexity and then design lessons that introduce students to that complexity. In addition, teachers can model the disciplinary nature of content area texts as well as word solving and comprehension strategies. Included is a planning guide for think aloud.

  10. Examining complexity across domains: relating subjective and objective measures of affective environmental scenes, paintings and music.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela M Marin

    Full Text Available Subjective complexity has been found to be related to hedonic measures of preference, pleasantness and beauty, but there is no consensus about the nature of this relationship in the visual and musical domains. Moreover, the affective content of stimuli has been largely neglected so far in the study of complexity but is crucial in many everyday contexts and in aesthetic experiences. We thus propose a cross-domain approach that acknowledges the multidimensional nature of complexity and that uses a wide range of objective complexity measures combined with subjective ratings. In four experiments, we employed pictures of affective environmental scenes, representational paintings, and Romantic solo and chamber music excerpts. Stimuli were pre-selected to vary in emotional content (pleasantness and arousal and complexity (low versus high number of elements. For each set of stimuli, in a between-subjects design, ratings of familiarity, complexity, pleasantness and arousal were obtained for a presentation time of 25 s from 152 participants. In line with Berlyne's collative-motivation model, statistical analyses controlling for familiarity revealed a positive relationship between subjective complexity and arousal, and the highest correlations were observed for musical stimuli. Evidence for a mediating role of arousal in the complexity-pleasantness relationship was demonstrated in all experiments, but was only significant for females with regard to music. The direction and strength of the linear relationship between complexity and pleasantness depended on the stimulus type and gender. For environmental scenes, the root mean square contrast measures and measures of compressed file size correlated best with subjective complexity, whereas only edge detection based on phase congruency yielded equivalent results for representational paintings. Measures of compressed file size and event density also showed positive correlations with complexity and arousal in

  11. Examining complexity across domains: relating subjective and objective measures of affective environmental scenes, paintings and music.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, Manuela M; Leder, Helmut

    2013-01-01

    Subjective complexity has been found to be related to hedonic measures of preference, pleasantness and beauty, but there is no consensus about the nature of this relationship in the visual and musical domains. Moreover, the affective content of stimuli has been largely neglected so far in the study of complexity but is crucial in many everyday contexts and in aesthetic experiences. We thus propose a cross-domain approach that acknowledges the multidimensional nature of complexity and that uses a wide range of objective complexity measures combined with subjective ratings. In four experiments, we employed pictures of affective environmental scenes, representational paintings, and Romantic solo and chamber music excerpts. Stimuli were pre-selected to vary in emotional content (pleasantness and arousal) and complexity (low versus high number of elements). For each set of stimuli, in a between-subjects design, ratings of familiarity, complexity, pleasantness and arousal were obtained for a presentation time of 25 s from 152 participants. In line with Berlyne's collative-motivation model, statistical analyses controlling for familiarity revealed a positive relationship between subjective complexity and arousal, and the highest correlations were observed for musical stimuli. Evidence for a mediating role of arousal in the complexity-pleasantness relationship was demonstrated in all experiments, but was only significant for females with regard to music. The direction and strength of the linear relationship between complexity and pleasantness depended on the stimulus type and gender. For environmental scenes, the root mean square contrast measures and measures of compressed file size correlated best with subjective complexity, whereas only edge detection based on phase congruency yielded equivalent results for representational paintings. Measures of compressed file size and event density also showed positive correlations with complexity and arousal in music, which is

  12. Integrated Environmental Modelling: human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  13. Satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex environmental issues related to the ... In the absence of necessary input of biological sciences, mathematics, ... Recently concept based teaching methodology; namely systemic approach to ... By Country · List All Titles · Open Access Titles This Journal is Open Access.

  14. Environmental influences on neural systems of relational complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Layne eKalbfleisch

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Constructivist learning theory contends that we construct knowledge by experience and that environmental context influences learning. To explore this principle, we examined the cognitive process relational complexity (RC, defined as the number of visual dimensions considered during problem solving on a matrix reasoning task and a well-documented measure of mature reasoning capacity. We sought to determine how the visual environment influences RC by examining the influence of color and visual contrast on RC in a neuroimaging task. To specify the contributions of sensory demand and relational integration to reasoning, our participants performed a non-verbal matrix task comprised of color, no-color line, or black-white visual contrast conditions parametrically varied by complexity (relations 0, 1, 2. The use of matrix reasoning is ecologically valid for its psychometric relevance and for its potential to link the processing of psychophysically specific visual properties with various levels of relational complexity during reasoning. The role of these elements is important because matrix tests assess intellectual aptitude based on these seemingly context-less exercises. This experiment is a first step toward examining the psychophysical underpinnings of performance on these types of problems. The importance of this is increased in light of recent evidence that intelligence can be linked to visual discrimination. We submit three main findings. First, color and black-white visual contrast add demand at a basic sensory level, but contributions from color and from black-white visual contrast are dissociable in cortex such that color engages a reasoning heuristic and black-white visual contrast engages a sensory heuristic. Second, color supports contextual sense-making by boosting salience resulting in faster problem solving. Lastly, when visual complexity reaches 2-relations, color and visual contrast relinquish salience to other dimensions of problem

  15. Complex Modelling of Open System Design for Sustainable Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yan; Frazer, John

    This paper argues a model of complex system design for sustainable architecture within a framework of entropy evolution. The spectrum of sustainable architecture consists of the efficient use of energy and material resource in life-cycle of buildings, the active involvement of the occupants in micro-climate control within buildings, and the natural environmental context. The interactions of the parameters compose a complex system of sustainable architectural design, of which the conventional linear and fragmented design technologies are insufficient to indicate holistic and ongoing environmental performance. The complexity theory of dissipative structure states a microscopic formulation of open system evolution, which provides a system design framework for the evolution of building environmental performance towards an optimization of sustainability in architecture.

  16. National environmental/economic infrastructure system model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, R.H.; Hardie, R.W.; Loose, V.W.; Booth, S.R.

    1997-08-01

    This is the final report for a one-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The ultimate goal was to develop a new methodology for macroeconomic modeling applied to national environmental and economic problems. A modeling demonstration and briefings were produced, and significant internal technical support and program interest has been generated. External contacts with DOE`s Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM), US State Department, and the US intelligence community were established. As a result of DOE-EM interest and requests for further development, this research has been redirected to national environmental simulations as a new LDRD project.

  17. Adduction of untested derived stimulus relations depends on environmental complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippy, Sterling M; Doughty, Adam H

    2017-10-01

    The present research assessed adduction involving derived stimulus relations as a function of environmental complexity. In Group CA, four college students were trained with arbitrary-matching-to-sample discriminations that could have established four, 3-member stimulus classes. In Group EA, four other students were trained with discriminations that could have established four, 5-member classes. Neither group received derived-relations testing; instead, adduction was assessed immediately after the baseline discriminations were learned. The adduction assessment required participants to derive the untested CA (Group CA) or EA (Group EA) equivalence relations and combine them with their already learned math skills. All participants in Group CA showed above 90% accuracy during the adduction assessment, whereas only one of four Group EA participants responded in that manner. These results extend adduction to untested equivalence relations and clarify the environmental conditions under which such adduction is less likely to occur (i.e., with larger relational networks). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Enabling complex genetic circuits to respond to extrinsic environmental signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoynes-O'Connor, Allison; Shopera, Tatenda; Hinman, Kristina; Creamer, John Philip; Moon, Tae Seok

    2017-03-06

    Genetic circuits have the potential to improve a broad range of metabolic engineering processes and address a variety of medical and environmental challenges. However, in order to engineer genetic circuits that can meet the needs of these real-world applications, genetic sensors that respond to relevant extrinsic and intrinsic signals must be implemented in complex genetic circuits. In this work, we construct the first AND and NAND gates that respond to temperature and pH, two signals that have relevance in a variety of real-world applications. A previously identified pH-responsive promoter and a temperature-responsive promoter were extracted from the E. coli genome, characterized, and modified to suit the needs of the genetic circuits. These promoters were combined with components of the type III secretion system in Salmonella typhimurium and used to construct a set of AND gates with up to 23-fold change. Next, an antisense RNA was integrated into the circuit architecture to invert the logic of the AND gate and generate a set of NAND gates with up to 1168-fold change. These circuits provide the first demonstration of complex pH- and temperature-responsive genetic circuits, and lay the groundwork for the use of similar circuits in real-world applications. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;9999: 1-6. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  19. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  20. Assessing the Role of Environmental Factors on Baltic Cod Recruitment, a Complex Adaptive System Emergent Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionysis Krekoukiotis

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available For decades, fish recruitment has been a subject of intensive research with stock–recruitment models commonly used for recruitment prediction often only explaining a small fraction of the inter-annual recruitment variation. The use of environmental information to improve our ability to predict recruitment, could contribute considerably to fisheries management. However, the problem remains difficult because the mechanisms behind such complex relationships are often poorly understood; this in turn, makes it difficult to determine the forecast estimation robustness, leading to the failure of some relationships when new data become available. The utility of machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANNs for solving complex problems has been demonstrated in aquatic studies and has led many researchers to advocate ANNs as an attractive, non-linear alternative to traditional statistical methods. The goal of this study is to design a Baltic cod recruitment model (FishANN that can account for complex ecosystem interactions. To this end, we (1 build a quantitative model representation of the conceptual understanding of the complex ecosystem interactions driving Baltic cod recruitment dynamics, and (2 apply the model to strengthen the current capability to project future changes in Baltic cod recruitment. FishANN is demonstrated to bring multiple stressors together into one model framework and estimate the relative importance of these stressors while interpreting the complex nonlinear interactions between them. Additional requirements to further improve the current study in the future are also proposed.

  1. Capturing Complexity through Maturity Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Jean; Dillon, Gayle

    2004-01-01

    The impact of information and communication technologies (ICT) on the process and products of education is difficult to assess for a number of reasons. In brief, education is a complex system of interrelationships, of checks and balances. This context is not a neutral backdrop on which teaching and learning are played out. Rather, it may help, or…

  2. Improving Environmental Model Calibration and Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-18

    groundwater model calibration. Adv. Water Resour., 29(4):605–623, 2006. [9] B.E. Skahill, J.S. Baggett, S. Frankenstein , and C.W. Downer. More efficient...of Hydrology, Environmental Modelling & Software, or Water Resources Research). Skahill, B., Baggett, J., Frankenstein , S., and Downer, C.W. (2009

  3. Entrepreneurial environmental management model of marketing in a political-administrative system of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadchenko Olena Vasylivna

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with proposals for entrepreneurial model of environmental management, in particular environmental marketing in modern political and administrative systems. In the context of the complexity of the social structure, forming a dense network of communications, globalization, cultural and economic-ecological space offers new mechanisms for the relationship between the state and civil society in environmental management.

  4. Modeling interfacial liquid layers on environmental ices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Kuo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Interfacial layers on ice significantly influence air-ice chemical interactions. In solute-containing aqueous systems, a liquid brine may form upon freezing due to the exclusion of impurities from the ice crystal lattice coupled with freezing point depression in the concentrated brine. The brine may be segregated to the air-ice interface where it creates a surface layer, in micropockets, or at grain boundaries or triple junctions.

    We present a model for brines and their associated liquid layers in environmental ice systems that is valid over a wide range of temperatures and solute concentrations. The model is derived from fundamental equlibrium thermodynamics and takes into account nonideal solution behavior in the brine, partitioning of the solute into the ice matrix, and equilibration between the brine and the gas phase for volatile solutes. We find that these phenomena are important to consider when modeling brines in environmental ices, especially at low temperatures. We demonstrate its application for environmentally important volatile and nonvolatile solutes including NaCl, HCl, and HNO3. The model is compared to existing models and experimental data from literature where available. We also identify environmentally relevant regimes where brine is not predicted to exist, but the QLL may significantly impact air-ice chemical interactions. This model can be used to improve the representation of air-ice chemical interactions in polar atmospheric chemistry models.

  5. SToRM: A numerical model for environmental surface flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoes, Francisco J.

    2009-01-01

    SToRM (System for Transport and River Modeling) is a numerical model developed to simulate free surface flows in complex environmental domains. It is based on the depth-averaged St. Venant equations, which are discretized using unstructured upwind finite volume methods, and contains both steady and unsteady solution techniques. This article provides a brief description of the numerical approach selected to discretize the governing equations in space and time, including important aspects of solving natural environmental flows, such as the wetting and drying algorithm. The presentation is illustrated with several application examples, covering both laboratory and natural river flow cases, which show the model’s ability to solve complex flow phenomena.

  6. Osteosarcoma models : understanding complex disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohseny, Alexander Behzad

    2012-01-01

    A mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) based osteosarcoma model was established. The model provided evidence for a MSC origin of osteosarcoma. Normal MSCs transformed spontaneously to osteosarcoma-like cells which was always accompanied by genomic instability and loss of the Cdkn2a locus. Accordingly loss of

  7. Osteosarcoma models : understanding complex disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohseny, Alexander Behzad

    2012-01-01

    A mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) based osteosarcoma model was established. The model provided evidence for a MSC origin of osteosarcoma. Normal MSCs transformed spontaneously to osteosarcoma-like cells which was always accompanied by genomic instability and loss of the Cdkn2a locus. Accordingly loss of

  8. Scope insensitivity in contingent valuation of complex environmental amenities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veisten, Knut; Fredrik Hoen, Hans; Navrud, Ståle; Strand, Jon

    2004-12-01

    It has been argued that respondents in contingent valuation (CV) surveys, asked to value complex environmental amenities, will state willingness to pay (WTP) independently of the scope of the project. Such insensitivity to scope would be at odds with rational choice, and could therefore imply that CV is not a theoretically valid method for biodiversity valuation. The scope test in the present CV study was applied to endangered species preservation. Respondents were split in four sub-samples facing different scopes of endangered species preservation. The design allowed for both external and internal scope tests. Furthermore, the tests were split according to elicitation format. Of four external tests of insensitivity to scope, one was rejected, two gave mixed results, depending on either the type of test or elicitation format, and for the last one the null hypothesis could not be rejected. Of five internal tests, insensitivity to scope was rejected in three cases, one test gave mixed results, and one could not be rejected. Survey design features of the CV study, especially an unfamiliar sub-group of endangered species, could explain the apparent insensitivity to scope observed.

  9. Climate predictions: the chaos and complexity in climate models

    CERN Document Server

    Mihailović, Dragutin T; Arsenić, Ilija

    2013-01-01

    Some issues which are relevant for the recent state in climate modeling have been considered. A detailed overview of literature related to this subject is given. The concept in modeling of climate, as a complex system, seen through Godel's Theorem and Rosen's definition of complexity and predictability is discussed. It is pointed out to occurrence of chaos in computing the environmental interface temperature from the energy balance equation given in a difference form. A coupled system of equations, often used in climate models is analyzed. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponent mostly has positive values allowing presence of chaos in this systems. The horizontal energy exchange between environmental interfaces, which is described by the dynamics of driven coupled oscillators, is analyzed. Their behavior and synchronization, when a perturbation is introduced in the system, as a function of the coupling parameters, the logistic parameter and the parameter of exchange, was studied calculating the Lyapunov expone...

  10. Molecular simulation and modeling of complex I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hummer, Gerhard; Wikström, Mårten

    2016-07-01

    Molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations play an important role in the functional characterization of complex I. With its large size and complicated function, linking quinone reduction to proton pumping across a membrane, complex I poses unique modeling challenges. Nonetheless, simulations have already helped in the identification of possible proton transfer pathways. Simulations have also shed light on the coupling between electron and proton transfer, thus pointing the way in the search for the mechanistic principles underlying the proton pump. In addition to reviewing what has already been achieved in complex I modeling, we aim here to identify pressing issues and to provide guidance for future research to harness the power of modeling in the functional characterization of complex I. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled Respiratory complex I, edited by Volker Zickermann and Ulrich Brandt. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Complex networks analysis in socioeconomic models

    CERN Document Server

    Varela, Luis M; Ausloos, Marcel; Carrete, Jesus

    2014-01-01

    This chapter aims at reviewing complex networks models and methods that were either developed for or applied to socioeconomic issues, and pertinent to the theme of New Economic Geography. After an introduction to the foundations of the field of complex networks, the present summary adds insights on the statistical mechanical approach, and on the most relevant computational aspects for the treatment of these systems. As the most frequently used model for interacting agent-based systems, a brief description of the statistical mechanics of the classical Ising model on regular lattices, together with recent extensions of the same model on small-world Watts-Strogatz and scale-free Albert-Barabasi complex networks is included. Other sections of the chapter are devoted to applications of complex networks to economics, finance, spreading of innovations, and regional trade and developments. The chapter also reviews results involving applications of complex networks to other relevant socioeconomic issues, including res...

  12. Models of organometallic complexes for optoelectronic applications

    CERN Document Server

    Jacko, A C; Powell, B J

    2010-01-01

    Organometallic complexes have potential applications as the optically active components of organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs) and organic photovoltaics (OPV). Development of more effective complexes may be aided by understanding their excited state properties. Here we discuss two key theoretical approaches to investigate these complexes: first principles atomistic models and effective Hamiltonian models. We review applications of these methods, such as, determining the nature of the emitting state, predicting the fraction of injected charges that form triplet excitations, and explaining the sensitivity of device performance to small changes in the molecular structure of the organometallic complexes.

  13. Community Environmental Education as a Model for Effective Environmental Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Morag

    2008-01-01

    The benefits of community environmental education outlined in environmental education literature are supported by the findings and implications of a research study undertaken in New Zealand. Evidence from a two-case case study suggests that environmental programmes guided by the key principles and practices of community environmental education,…

  14. Model Analysis of Complex Systems Behavior using MADS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesselinov, V. V.; O'Malley, D.

    2016-12-01

    Evaluation of robustness (reliability) of model predictions is challenging for models representing complex system behavior. Frequently in science and engineering applications related to complex systems, several alternative physics models may describe the available data equally well and are physically reasonable based on the available conceptual understanding. However, these alternative models could give very different predictions about the future states of the analyzed system. Furthermore, in the case of complex systems, we often must do modeling with an incomplete understanding of the underlying physical processes and model parameters. The analyses of model predictions representing complex system behavior are particularly challenging when we are quantifying uncertainties of rare events in the model prediction space that can have major consequences (also called "black swans"). These types of analyses are also computationally challenging. Here, we demonstrate the application of a general high-performance computational tool for Model Analysis & Decision Support (MADS; http://mads.lanl.gov) which can be applied to perform analyses using any external physics or systems model. The coupling between MADS and the external model can be performed using different methods. MADS is implemented in Julia, a high-level, high-performance dynamic programming language for technical computing (http://mads.lanl.gov/, https://github.com/madsjulia/Mads.jl, http://mads.readthedocs.org). MADS has been applied to perform analyses for environmental-management and water-energy-food nexus problems. To demonstrate MADS capabilities and functionalities, we analyze a series of synthetic problems consistent with actual real-world problems.

  15. Information, complexity and efficiency: The automobile model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allenby, B. [Lucent Technologies (United States)]|[Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-08-08

    The new, rapidly evolving field of industrial ecology - the objective, multidisciplinary study of industrial and economic systems and their linkages with fundamental natural systems - provides strong ground for believing that a more environmentally and economically efficient economy will be more information intensive and complex. Information and intellectual capital will be substituted for the more traditional inputs of materials and energy in producing a desirable, yet sustainable, quality of life. While at this point this remains a strong hypothesis, the evolution of the automobile industry can be used to illustrate how such substitution may, in fact, already be occurring in an environmentally and economically critical sector.

  16. Combined Mechanistic and Transport Modelling of Metal Humate Complexes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bryan, N. D.; Jones, D.; Griffin, D.

    1999-01-01

    RMC-Environmental Contribution to Task 4, (Model Development and Testing). Reporting period 1998.......RMC-Environmental Contribution to Task 4, (Model Development and Testing). Reporting period 1998....

  17. Preliminary assessment of the Long Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex environmental contaminants background survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report represents the preliminary results of the first year of the multiyear study, The Long Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Complex) Environmental...

  18. Modelling the structure of complex networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue

    networks has been independently studied as mathematical objects in their own right. As such, there has been both an increased demand for statistical methods for complex networks as well as a quickly growing mathematical literature on the subject. In this dissertation we explore aspects of modelling complex....... The next chapters will treat some of the various symmetries, representer theorems and probabilistic structures often deployed in the modelling complex networks, the construction of sampling methods and various network models. The introductory chapters will serve to provide context for the included written...

  19. Scaffolding in Complex Modelling Situations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stender, Peter; Kaiser, Gabriele

    2015-01-01

    The implementation of teacher-independent realistic modelling processes is an ambitious educational activity with many unsolved problems so far. Amongst others, there hardly exists any empirical knowledge about efficient ways of possible teacher support with students' activities, which should be mainly independent from the teacher. The research…

  20. Simple models of assortment through environmental feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, John W

    2007-01-01

    Social evolution depends critically on assortment, or segregation versus even mixing, between cooperators and noncooperators. Altruistic traits, which reduce the absolute fitness of their bearers, cannot evolve without positive assortment (excess segregation). The question of how positive assortment can arise has been controversial, but most evolutionary biologists believe that common descent is the only effective general mechanism. Here I investigate another recently proposed mechanism for generating nonrandom assortment, termed environmental feedback. This requires only that two forms of a trait affect the quality of the local environment differently in such a way that all individuals are more likely to leave low-quality locales. Experiments with simple computational models confirm that environmental feedback generates significant levels of genetic similarity among non-kin within locales. The mechanism is fairly general, and can under some conditions produce levels of genetic similarity comparable to those resulting from close genealogical relationship. Environmental feedback can also generate the negative assortment necessary for the evolution of spiteful traits. Environmental feedback is expected to create positive frequency-dependent selection, which thus favor any social trait that becomes common in the population. Results from this stylized model suggest that environmental feedback could be important in the evolution of both cooperation and spite, within as well as between species.

  1. Mixture model analysis of complex samples

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wedel, M; ter Hofstede, F; Steenkamp, JBEM

    1998-01-01

    We investigate the effects of a complex sampling design on the estimation of mixture models. An approximate or pseudo likelihood approach is proposed to obtain consistent estimates of class-specific parameters when the sample arises from such a complex design. The effects of ignoring the sample desi

  2. An open-source Java-based Toolbox for environmental model evaluation: The MOUSE Software Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    A consequence of environmental model complexity is that the task of understanding how environmental models work and identifying their sensitivities/uncertainties, etc. becomes progressively more difficult. Comprehensive numerical and visual evaluation tools have been developed such as the Monte Carl...

  3. Atlases: Complex models of geospace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikonović Vesna

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlas is modeled contexture contents of treated thematic of space on optimal map union. Atlases are higher form of cartography. Atlases content composition of maps which are different by projection, scale, format methods, contents, usage and so. Atlases can be classified by multi criteria. Modern classification of atlases by technology of making would be on: 1. classical or traditional (printed on paper and 2. electronic (made on electronic media - computer or computer station. Electronic atlases divided in three large groups: view-only electronic atlases, 2. interactive electronic atlases and 3. analytical electronic atlases.

  4. Numerical models of complex diapirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podladchikov, Yu.; Talbot, C.; Poliakov, A. N. B.

    1993-12-01

    Numerically modelled diapirs that rise into overburdens with viscous rheology produce a large variety of shapes. This work uses the finite-element method to study the development of diapirs that rise towards a surface on which a diapir-induced topography creeps flat or disperses ("erodes") at different rates. Slow erosion leads to diapirs with "mushroom" shapes, moderate erosion rate to "wine glass" diapirs and fast erosion to "beer glass"- and "column"-shaped diapirs. The introduction of a low-viscosity layer at the top of the overburden causes diapirs to develop into structures resembling a "Napoleon hat". These spread lateral sheets.

  5. Energy-based models for environmental biotechnology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Jorge; Lema, Juan M; Kleerebezem, Robbert

    2008-07-01

    Environmental biotechnology is evolving. Current process objectives include the production of chemicals and/or energy carriers (biofuels) in addition to the traditional objective of removing pollutants from waste. To maximise product yields and minimise biomass production, future processes will rely on anaerobic microbial communities. Anaerobic processes are characterised by small Gibbs energy changes in the reactions catalysed, and this provides clear thermodynamic process boundaries. Here, a Gibbs-energy-based methodology is proposed for mathematical modelling of energy-limited anaerobic ecosystems. This methodology provides a basis for the description of microbial activities as a function of environmental factors, which will allow enhanced catalysis of specific reactions of interest for process development.

  6. Intersection of participation and environmental factors: a complex interactive process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noreau, Luc; Boschen, Kathryn

    2010-09-01

    The objective was to review contemporary and historical rehabilitation-focused literature on conceptualizations of the environment, broadly defined, and environmental measures. Data sources included historical nonempirical American-based literature from 1935 to the present and descriptive and empirical rehabilitation articles worldwide, retrieved from computerized databases predominantly from past 10 years depicting a participation-environment association. Literature selection required relevance to 3 combined topics: physical disability rehabilitation, participation/community integration, and impact of environmental barriers and facilitators. The ultimate focus was on spinal cord injury for recent literature and measures reviewed. Data extraction was based on author-assessed relevance to both participation and environmental considerations. Nonempirical literature from last three quarters of a century suggests an environmental impact on participation, focusing on "person-environment fit." Recent empirical evidence supports environmental contributions to participation, but the magnitude of the contribution is low. Despite the obvious theoretic impact of the environment, scientific demonstration of environmental contribution to participation restriction or facilitation has yet to be achieved. Participation-environment interaction could be illustrated better by (1) taking into account critical elements in environmental measures (eg, comprehensiveness of approach to environment, scales describing spectrum of environmental influence, subjective vs objective perspectives), (2) addressing the concept of participation in a dimension-specific approach, and (3) avoiding environmental features in construction of participation measures.

  7. Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

    OpenAIRE

    Veer, van der, C.G.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert F.

    1996-01-01

    Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the design of complex systems, has been applied in a situation of redesign of a Dutch public administration system. The most feasible method to collect information in this case was ethnography, the resulti...

  8. EVALUATING EMERGENCY RESPONSE MODELS OF RADIOLOGICAL DISPERSION IN COMPLEX TERRAIN

    OpenAIRE

    Dyer, L.L.; Pascoe, J.H.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract: Operational airborne releases of trace quantities of the radioactive noble gas Ar-41 from the HIFAR Nuclear Research Reactor located in Sydney, Australia are valuable for evaluating emergency response models incorporating radiological dispersion. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), where the reactor is located, has a network of meteorological stations and GR-150 environmental gamma dose detectors placed in complex terrain within a 5km radius ...

  9. Prediction of phylogeographic endemism in an environmentally complex biome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnaval, Ana Carolina; Waltari, Eric; Rodrigues, Miguel T; Rosauer, Dan; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Damasceno, Roberta; Prates, Ivan; Strangas, Maria; Spanos, Zoe; Rivera, Danielle; Pie, Marcio R; Firkowski, Carina R; Bornschein, Marcos R; Ribeiro, Luiz F; Moritz, Craig

    2014-10-07

    Phylogeographic endemism, the degree to which the history of recently evolved lineages is spatially restricted, reflects fundamental evolutionary processes such as cryptic divergence, adaptation and biological responses to environmental heterogeneity. Attempts to explain the extraordinary diversity of the tropics, which often includes deep phylogeographic structure, frequently invoke interactions of climate variability across space, time and topography. To evaluate historical versus contemporary drivers of phylogeographic endemism in a tropical system, we analyse the effects of current and past climatic variation on the genetic diversity of 25 vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We identify two divergent bioclimatic domains within the forest and high turnover around the Rio Doce. Independent modelling of these domains demonstrates that endemism patterns are subject to different climatic drivers. Past climate dynamics, specifically areas of relative stability, predict phylogeographic endemism in the north. Conversely, contemporary climatic heterogeneity better explains endemism in the south. These results accord with recent speleothem and fossil pollen studies, suggesting that climatic variability through the last 250 kyr impacted the northern and the southern forests differently. Incorporating sub-regional differences in climate dynamics will enhance our ability to understand those processes shaping high phylogeographic and species endemism, in the Neotropics and beyond.

  10. Fatigue modeling of materials with complex microstructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2011-01-01

    A new approach and method of the analysis of microstructure-lifetime relationships of materials with complex structures is presented. The micromechanical multiscale computational analysis of damage evolution in materials with complex hierarchical microstructures is combined with the phenomenologi......A new approach and method of the analysis of microstructure-lifetime relationships of materials with complex structures is presented. The micromechanical multiscale computational analysis of damage evolution in materials with complex hierarchical microstructures is combined...... with the phenomenological model of fatigue damage growth. As a result, the fatigue lifetime of materials with complex structures can be determined as a function of the parameters of their structures. As an example, the fatigue lifetimes of wood modeled as a cellular material with multilayered, fiber reinforced walls were...

  11. Preferential urn model and nongrowing complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohkubo, Jun; Yasuda, Muneki; Tanaka, Kazuyuki

    2005-12-01

    A preferential urn model, which is based on the concept "the rich get richer," is proposed. From a relationship between a nongrowing model for complex networks and the preferential urn model in regard to degree distributions, it is revealed that a fitness parameter in the nongrowing model is interpreted as an inverse local temperature in the preferential urn model. Furthermore, it is clarified that the preferential urn model with randomness generates a fat-tailed occupation distribution; the concept of the local temperature enables us to understand the fat-tailed occupation distribution intuitively. Since the preferential urn model is a simple stochastic model, it can be applied to research on not only the nongrowing complex networks, but also many other fields such as econophysics and social sciences.

  12. Environmental management on the basis of Complex Regional Indicators Concept: case of the Murmansk region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, A.; Gutman, S.; Zaychenko, I.; Rytova, E.; Nijinskaya, P.

    2015-09-01

    The article presents an approach to sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation based on the complex regional indicators as a transformation of a balance scorecard method. The peculiarities of Murmansk region connected with sustainable environmental development are described. The complex regional indicators approach allows to elaborate the general concept of complex regional development taking into consideration economic and non-economic factors with the focus on environmental aspects, accumulated environmental damage in particular. General strategic chart of sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region worked out on the basis of complex regional indicators concept is composed. The key target indicators of sustainable ecological development of the Murmansk region are presented for the following strategic chart components: regional finance; society and market; industry and entrepreneurship; training, development and innovations. These charts are to be integrated with international environmental monitoring systems.

  13. The Kuramoto model in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Rodrigues, Francisco A; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in net...

  14. Multiscale modeling of complex materials phenomenological, theoretical and computational aspects

    CERN Document Server

    Trovalusci, Patrizia

    2014-01-01

    The papers in this volume deal with materials science, theoretical mechanics and experimental and computational techniques at multiple scales, providing a sound base and a framework for many applications which are hitherto treated in a phenomenological sense. The basic principles are formulated of multiscale modeling strategies towards modern complex multiphase materials subjected to various types of mechanical, thermal loadings and environmental effects. The focus is on problems where mechanics is highly coupled with other concurrent physical phenomena. Attention is also focused on the historical origins of multiscale modeling and foundations of continuum mechanics currently adopted to model non-classical continua with substructure, for which internal length scales play a crucial role.

  15. Complexity vs. Simplicity: Tradeoffs in Integrated Water Resources Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, J.; Elshorbagy, A. A.; Wheater, H. S.; Razavi, S.

    2014-12-01

    Integrated Water Resources Management is an interdisciplinary approach to managing water. Integration often involves linking hydrologic processes with socio-economic development. When implemented through a simulation or optimization model, complexities arise. This complexity is due to the large data requirements, making it difficult to implement by the end users. Not only is computational efficiency at stake, but it becomes cumbersome to future model users. To overcome this issue the model may be simplified through emulation, at the expense of information loss. Herein lies a tradeoff: Complexity involved in an accurate, detailed model versus the transparency and saliency of a simplified model. This presentation examines the role of model emulation towards simplifying a water allocation model. The case study is located in Southern Alberta, Canada. Water here is allocated between agricultural, municipal, environmental and energy sectors. Currently, water allocation is modeled through a detailed optimization model, WRMM. Although WRMM can allocate water on a priority basis, it lacks the simplicity needed by the end user. The proposed System Dynamics-based model, SWAMP 2.0, emulates this optimization model, utilizing two scales of complexity. A regional scale spatially aggregates individual components, reducing the complexity of the original model. A local scale retains the original detail, and is contained within the regional scale. This two tiered emulation presents relevant spatial scales to water managers, who may not be interested in all the details of WRMM. By evaluating the accuracy of SWAMP 2.0 against the original allocation model, the tradeoff of accuracy for simplicity can be further realized.

  16. Modelling Canopy Flows over Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Eleanor R.; Ross, Andrew N.; Gardiner, Barry A.

    2016-06-01

    Recent studies of flow over forested hills have been motivated by a number of important applications including understanding CO_2 and other gaseous fluxes over forests in complex terrain, predicting wind damage to trees, and modelling wind energy potential at forested sites. Current modelling studies have focussed almost exclusively on highly idealized, and usually fully forested, hills. Here, we present model results for a site on the Isle of Arran, Scotland with complex terrain and heterogeneous forest canopy. The model uses an explicit representation of the canopy and a 1.5-order turbulence closure for flow within and above the canopy. The validity of the closure scheme is assessed using turbulence data from a field experiment before comparing predictions of the full model with field observations. For near-neutral stability, the results compare well with the observations, showing that such a relatively simple canopy model can accurately reproduce the flow patterns observed over complex terrain and realistic, variable forest cover, while at the same time remaining computationally feasible for real case studies. The model allows closer examination of the flow separation observed over complex forested terrain. Comparisons with model simulations using a roughness length parametrization show significant differences, particularly with respect to flow separation, highlighting the need to explicitly model the forest canopy if detailed predictions of near-surface flow around forests are required.

  17. Complex system modelling for veterinary epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzas, Cristina; Chen, Shi

    2015-02-01

    The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets.

  18. Modelling Canopy Flows over Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Eleanor R.; Ross, Andrew N.; Gardiner, Barry A.

    2016-12-01

    Recent studies of flow over forested hills have been motivated by a number of important applications including understanding CO_2 and other gaseous fluxes over forests in complex terrain, predicting wind damage to trees, and modelling wind energy potential at forested sites. Current modelling studies have focussed almost exclusively on highly idealized, and usually fully forested, hills. Here, we present model results for a site on the Isle of Arran, Scotland with complex terrain and heterogeneous forest canopy. The model uses an explicit representation of the canopy and a 1.5-order turbulence closure for flow within and above the canopy. The validity of the closure scheme is assessed using turbulence data from a field experiment before comparing predictions of the full model with field observations. For near-neutral stability, the results compare well with the observations, showing that such a relatively simple canopy model can accurately reproduce the flow patterns observed over complex terrain and realistic, variable forest cover, while at the same time remaining computationally feasible for real case studies. The model allows closer examination of the flow separation observed over complex forested terrain. Comparisons with model simulations using a roughness length parametrization show significant differences, particularly with respect to flow separation, highlighting the need to explicitly model the forest canopy if detailed predictions of near-surface flow around forests are required.

  19. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible.

  20. Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests. A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

  1. Environmental dependence in the ellipsoidal collapse model

    CERN Document Server

    Desjacques, Vincent

    2007-01-01

    N-body simulations have demonstrated a correlation between the properties of haloes and their environment. In this paper, we assess whether the ellipsoidal collapse model can produce a similar dependence. First, we explore the statistical correlation that originates from Gaussian initial conditions. We derive analytic expressions for a number of joint statistics of the shear tensor and estimate the sensitivity of the local characteristics of the shear to the global geometry of the large scale environment. Next, we concentrate on the dynamical aspect of the environmental dependence using a simplified model that takes into account the interaction between a collapsing halo and its environment. We find that the tidal force exerted by the surrounding mass distribution causes haloes embedded in overdense regions to virialize earlier. An effective density threshold whose shape depends on the large scale density provides a good description of this environmental effect. We show that, using this approach, a correlation...

  2. From Complex to Simple: Interdisciplinary Stochastic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazilu, D. A.; Zamora, G.; Mazilu, I.

    2012-01-01

    We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions…

  3. Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veer, Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert

    1996-01-01

    Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the

  4. Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veer, van der Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert F.

    1996-01-01

    Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the desi

  5. A differential model of the complex cell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansard, Miles; Horaud, Radu

    2011-09-01

    The receptive fields of simple cells in the visual cortex can be understood as linear filters. These filters can be modeled by Gabor functions or gaussian derivatives. Gabor functions can also be combined in an energy model of the complex cell response. This letter proposes an alternative model of the complex cell, based on gaussian derivatives. It is most important to account for the insensitivity of the complex response to small shifts of the image. The new model uses a linear combination of the first few derivative filters, at a single position, to approximate the first derivative filter, at a series of adjacent positions. The maximum response, over all positions, gives a signal that is insensitive to small shifts of the image. This model, unlike previous approaches, is based on the scale space theory of visual processing. In particular, the complex cell is built from filters that respond to the 2D differential structure of the image. The computational aspects of the new model are studied in one and two dimensions, using the steerability of the gaussian derivatives. The response of the model to basic images, such as edges and gratings, is derived formally. The response to natural images is also evaluated, using statistical measures of shift insensitivity. The neural implementation and predictions of the model are discussed.

  6. Complex-temperature singularities of Ising models

    CERN Document Server

    Shrock, R E

    1995-01-01

    We report new results on complex-temperature properties of Ising models. These include studies of the s=1/2 model on triangular, honeycomb, kagom\\'e, 3 \\cdot 12^2, and 4 \\cdot 8^2 lattices. We elucidate the complex--T phase diagrams of the higher-spin 2D Ising models, using calculations of partition function zeros. Finally, we investigate the 2D Ising model in an external magnetic field, mapping the complex--T phase diagram and exploring various singularities therein. For the case \\beta H=i\\pi/2, we give exact results on the phase diagram and obtain susceptibility exponents \\gamma' at various singularities from low-temperature series analyses.

  7. TRANSGENIC FISH MODEL IN ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madhuri Sharma

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A number of experiments and the use of drugs have been performed in fish. The fish may be used as model organism in various biological experiments, including environmental toxicology. Aquatic animals are being engineered to increase aquaculture production, for medical and industrial research, and for ornamental reasons. Fish have been found to play an important role in assessing potential risks associated with exposure to toxic substances in aquatic environment. Hence, it has been thought that the development of transgenic fish can enhance the use of fish in environmental toxicology. India has developed experimental transgenics of rohu fish, zebra fish, cat fish and singhi fish. Genes, promoters and vectors of indigenous origin are now available for only two species namely rohu and singhi for engineering growth. Development of fish model carrying identical transgenes to those found in rodents is beneficial and has shown that several aspects of in vivo mutagenesis are similar between the two classes of vertebrates. Fish shows the frequencies of spontaneous mutations similar to rodents and respond to mutagen exposure consistent with known mutagenic mechanisms. The feasibility of in vivo mutation analysis using transgenic fish has been demonstrated and the potential value of transgenic fish as a comparative animal model has been illustrated. Therefore, the transgenic fish can give the significant contribution to study the environmental toxicity in animals as a whole.

  8. Updating the debate on model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2012-01-01

    As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

  9. Balancing model complexity and measurements in hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Giesen, N.; Schoups, G.; Weijs, S. V.

    2012-12-01

    The Data Processing Inequality implies that hydrological modeling can only reduce, and never increase, the amount of information available in the original data used to formulate and calibrate hydrological models: I(X;Z(Y)) ≤ I(X;Y). Still, hydrologists around the world seem quite content building models for "their" watersheds to move our discipline forward. Hydrological models tend to have a hybrid character with respect to underlying physics. Most models make use of some well established physical principles, such as mass and energy balances. One could argue that such principles are based on many observations, and therefore add data. These physical principles, however, are applied to hydrological models that often contain concepts that have no direct counterpart in the observable physical universe, such as "buckets" or "reservoirs" that fill up and empty out over time. These not-so-physical concepts are more like the Artificial Neural Networks and Support Vector Machines of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community. Within AI, one quickly came to the realization that by increasing model complexity, one could basically fit any dataset but that complexity should be controlled in order to be able to predict unseen events. The more data are available to train or calibrate the model, the more complex it can be. Many complexity control approaches exist in AI, with Solomonoff inductive inference being one of the first formal approaches, the Akaike Information Criterion the most popular, and Statistical Learning Theory arguably being the most comprehensive practical approach. In hydrology, complexity control has hardly been used so far. There are a number of reasons for that lack of interest, the more valid ones of which will be presented during the presentation. For starters, there are no readily available complexity measures for our models. Second, some unrealistic simplifications of the underlying complex physics tend to have a smoothing effect on possible model

  10. Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Cilliers

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

  11. A compact model for the complex plant circadian clock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didier eGonze

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The circadian clock is an endogenous timekeeper that allows organisms to anticipate and adapt to the daily variations of their environment. The plant clock is an intricate network of interlocked feedback loops, in which transcription factors regulate each other to generate oscillations with expression peaks at specific times of the day. Over the last decade, mathematical modeling approaches have been used to understand the inner workings of the clock in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. Those efforts have produced a number of models of ever increasing complexity. Here, we present an alternative model that combines a low number of equations and parameters, similar to the very earliest models, with the complex network structure found in more recent ones. This simple model describes the temporal evolution of the abundance of eight clock genes and captures key features of the clock on a qualitative level, namely the entrained and free-running behaviors of the wild type clock, as well as the defects found in knockout mutants (such as altered free-running periods, lack of entrainment, or changes in the expression of other clock genes. Additionally, our model produces complex responses to various light cues, such as extreme photoperiods and non-24h environmental cycles, and can describe the control of hypocotyl growth by the clock. Our model constitutes a useful tool to probe dynamical properties of the clock as well as model more clock-dependent processes.

  12. Critical conceptualism in environmental modeling and prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G

    2003-10-15

    Many important problems in environmental science and engineering are of a conceptual nature. Research and development, however, often becomes so preoccupied with technical issues, which are themselves fascinating, that it neglects essential methodological elements of conceptual reasoning and theoretical inquiry. This work suggests that valuable insight into environmental modeling can be gained by means of critical conceptualism which focuses on the software of human reason and, in practical terms, leads to a powerful methodological framework of space-time modeling and prediction. A knowledge synthesis system develops the rational means for the epistemic integration of various physical knowledge bases relevant to the natural system of interest in order to obtain a realistic representation of the system, provide a rigorous assessment of the uncertainty sources, generate meaningful predictions of environmental processes in space-time, and produce science-based decisions. No restriction is imposed on the shape of the distribution model or the form of the predictor (non-Gaussian distributions, multiple-point statistics, and nonlinear models are automatically incorporated). The scientific reasoning structure underlying knowledge synthesis involves teleologic criteria and stochastic logic principles which have important advantages over the reasoning method of conventional space-time techniques. Insight is gained in terms of real world applications, including the following: the study of global ozone patterns in the atmosphere using data sets generated by instruments on board the Nimbus 7 satellite and secondary information in terms of total ozone-tropopause pressure models; the mapping of arsenic concentrations in the Bangladesh drinking water by assimilating hard and soft data from an extensive network of monitoring wells; and the dynamic imaging of probability distributions of pollutants across the Kalamazoo river.

  13. The NASA environmental models of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, D. I.

    1991-01-01

    NASA environmental models are discussed with particular attention given to the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) and the Mars Terrain simulator. The Mars-GRAM model takes into account seasonal, diurnal, and surface topography and dust storm effects upon the atmosphere. It is also capable of simulating appropriate random density perturbations along any trajectory path through the atmosphere. The Mars Terrain Simulator is a software program that builds pseudo-Martian terrains by layering the effects of geological processes upon one another. Output pictures of the constructed surfaces can be viewed from any vantage point under any illumination conditions. Attention is also given to the document 'Environment of Mars, 1988' in which scientific models of the Martian atmosphere and Martian surface are presented.

  14. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  15. Crops Models for Varying Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry; Cavazzoni, James; Keas, Paul

    2001-01-01

    New variable environment Modified Energy Cascade (MEC) crop models were developed for all the Advanced Life Support (ALS) candidate crops and implemented in SIMULINK. The MEC models are based on the Volk, Bugbee, and Wheeler Energy Cascade (EC) model and are derived from more recent Top-Level Energy Cascade (TLEC) models. The MEC models simulate crop plant responses to day-to-day changes in photosynthetic photon flux, photoperiod, carbon dioxide level, temperature, and relative humidity. The original EC model allows changes in light energy but uses a less accurate linear approximation. The simulation outputs of the new MEC models for constant nominal environmental conditions are very similar to those of earlier EC models that use parameters produced by the TLEC models. There are a few differences. The new MEC models allow setting the time for seed emergence, have realistic exponential canopy growth, and have corrected harvest dates for potato and tomato. The new MEC models indicate that the maximum edible biomass per meter squared per day is produced at the maximum allowed carbon dioxide level, the nominal temperatures, and the maximum light input. Reducing the carbon dioxide level from the maximum to the minimum allowed in the model reduces crop production significantly. Increasing temperature decreases production more than it decreases the time to harvest, so productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greater at nominal than maximum temperatures, The productivity in edible biomass per meter squared per day is greatest at the maximum light energy input allowed in the model, but the edible biomass produced per light energy input unit is lower than at nominal light levels. Reducing light levels increases light and power use efficiency. The MEC models suggest we can adjust the light energy day-to- day to accommodate power shortages or Lise excess power while monitoring and controlling edible biomass production.

  16. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes.

  17. Computational molecular basis for improved silica surface complexation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahai, Nita; Rosso, Kevin M.

    2006-06-06

    The acidity and reactivity of surface sites on amorphous and crystalline polymorphs of silica and other oxides control their thermodynamic stability and kinetic reactivity towards reactants in surface-controlled processes of environmental, industrial, biomedical and technological relevance. Recent advances in computational methodologies such as CPMD and increasing computer power combined with spectroscopic measurements are now making it possible to link, with an impressive degree of accuracy, the molecular-level description of these processes to phenomenological, surface complexation models The future challenge now lies in linking mesoscale properties at the nanometer scale to phenomenological models that will afford a more intuitive understanding of the systems under consideration.

  18. Trends in modeling Biomedical Complex Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Remondini Daniel

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this paper we provide an introduction to the techniques for multi-scale complex biological systems, from the single bio-molecule to the cell, combining theoretical modeling, experiments, informatics tools and technologies suitable for biological and biomedical research, which are becoming increasingly multidisciplinary, multidimensional and information-driven. The most important concepts on mathematical modeling methodologies and statistical inference, bioinformatics and standards tools to investigate complex biomedical systems are discussed and the prominent literature useful to both the practitioner and the theoretician are presented.

  19. Ground Combat Training Squadron Complex Final Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    Activities Areas of natural terrain with a thick understory and layers of heavy forest floor litter are important training components. Supervised...headquarters, aid and litter team, prisoner team, surveillance team, enroute recorder, compass person, and pace person. Description of the Proposed...Chapter 259 The proposed action would not affect Authorizes acquisition of Land Arquisitionfbr tourism and/or outdoor recreation. environmentally

  20. Analytical model for orbital debris environmental management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talent, David L.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation, also referred to as the PIB (particle-in-a-box) model, expressing the time rate of change of the number of objects in orbit, is developed, and its applicability is illustrated. The model can be used as a tool for the assessment of LEO environment stability, and as a starting point for the development of numerical evolutionary models. Within the context of the model, evolutionary scenarios are examined, and found to be sensitive to the growth rate. It is determined that the present environment is slightly unstable to catastrophic growth, and that the number of particles on orbit will continue to increase until approximately 2250-2350 AD, with a maximum of 2,000,000. The model is expandable to the more realistic (complex) case of multiple species in a multiple-tier system.

  1. Analytical model for orbital debris environmental management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talent, David L.

    1990-01-01

    A differential equation, also referred to as the PIB (particle-in-a-box) model, expressing the time rate of change of the number of objects in orbit, is developed, and its applicability is illustrated. The model can be used as a tool for the assessment of LEO environment stability, and as a starting point for the development of numerical evolutionary models. Within the context of the model, evolutionary scenarios are examined, and found to be sensitive to the growth rate. It is determined that the present environment is slightly unstable to catastrophic growth, and that the number of particles on orbit will continue to increase until approximately 2250-2350 AD, with a maximum of 2,000,000. The model is expandable to the more realistic (complex) case of multiple species in a multiple-tier system.

  2. Complex environmental forcing across the biogeographical range of coral populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily B Rivest

    Full Text Available Although there is a substantial body of work on how temperature shapes coastal marine ecosystems, the spatiotemporal variability of seawater pH and corresponding in situ biological responses remain largely unknown across biogeographic ranges of tropical coral species. Environmental variability is important to characterize because it can amplify or dampen the biological consequences of global change, depending on the functional relationship between mean temperature or pH and organismal traits. Here, we characterize the spatiotemporal variability of pH, temperature, and salinity at fringing reefs in Moorea, French Polynesia and Nanwan Bay, Taiwan using advanced time series analysis, including wavelet analysis, and infer their potential impact on the persistence and stability of coral populations. Our results demonstrate that both the mean and variance of pH and temperature differed significantly between sites in Moorea and Taiwan. Seawater temperature at the Moorea site passed the local bleaching threshold several times within the ~45 day deployment while aragonite saturation state at the Taiwan site was often below commonly observed levels for coral reefs. Our results showcase how a better understanding of the differences in environmental conditions between sites can (1 provide an important frame of reference for designing laboratory experiments to study the effects of environmental variability, (2 identify the proximity of current environmental conditions to predicted biological thresholds for the coral reef, and (3 help predict when the temporal variability and mean of environmental conditions will interact synergistically or antagonistically to alter the abundance and stability of marine populations experiencing climate change.

  3. Characteristic Polynomials of Complex Random Matrix Models

    CERN Document Server

    Akemann, G

    2003-01-01

    We calculate the expectation value of an arbitrary product of characteristic polynomials of complex random matrices and their hermitian conjugates. Using the technique of orthogonal polynomials in the complex plane our result can be written in terms of a determinant containing these polynomials and their kernel. It generalizes the known expression for hermitian matrices and it also provides a generalization of the Christoffel formula to the complex plane. The derivation we present holds for complex matrix models with a general weight function at finite-N, where N is the size of the matrix. We give some explicit examples at finite-N for specific weight functions. The characteristic polynomials in the large-N limit at weak and strong non-hermiticity follow easily and they are universal in the weak limit. We also comment on the issue of the BMN large-N limit.

  4. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  5. Complex Behaviors of a Simple Traffic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Xing-Ru

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a modified traffic model in which a single car moves through a sequence of traffic lights controlled by a step function instead of a sine function. In contrast to the previous work [Phys. Rev. E 70 (2004)016107], we have investigated in detail the dependence of the behavior on four parameters, ω, α, η, and a1, and given three kinds of bifurcation diagrams, which show three kinds of complex behaviors. We have found that in this model there are chaotic and complex periodic motions, as well as special singularities. We have also analyzed the characteristic of the complex period motion and the essential feature of the singularity.

  6. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  7. Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Bertelle, Cyrille; Kadri-Dahmani, Hakima

    2009-01-01

    The concern of this book is the use of emergent computing and self-organization modelling within various applications of complex systems. The authors focus their attention both on the innovative concepts and implementations in order to model self-organizations, but also on the relevant applicative domains in which they can be used efficiently. This book is the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006 (Eurosis), held in Toulouse, France in October 2006.

  8. A cognitive model for software architecture complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwers, E.; Lilienthal, C.; Visser, J.; Van Deursen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Evaluating the complexity of the architecture of a softwaresystem is a difficult task. Many aspects have to be considered to come to a balanced assessment. Several architecture evaluation methods have been proposed, but very few define a quality model to be used during the evaluation process. In add

  9. The Kuramoto model in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Peron, Thomas K. DM.; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

  10. A program of research in environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    A theoretical framework for the interpretation of satellite measurements of stratospheric temperature and trace gases is provided. This problem is quite complicated since the distributions of trace gases are dependent on dynamics and photochemistry. Therefore, the problem was attacked with models employing varying degrees of photochemical and dynamical complexity. The relationship between dynamics and trace gas transport and wave transience, dissipation and critical levels and the net (permanent) transport of trace gases, the role of photochemistry in trace gas transport, photochemistry and dynamics and altering the mean-zonal distribution of stratospheric ozone, and approximations to simplify the interpretation of observations and General Circulation Models are discussed.

  11. Modelling biological complexity: a physical scientist's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coveney, Peter V; Fowler, Philip W

    2005-09-22

    We discuss the modern approaches of complexity and self-organization to understanding dynamical systems and how these concepts can inform current interest in systems biology. From the perspective of a physical scientist, it is especially interesting to examine how the differing weights given to philosophies of science in the physical and biological sciences impact the application of the study of complexity. We briefly describe how the dynamics of the heart and circadian rhythms, canonical examples of systems biology, are modelled by sets of nonlinear coupled differential equations, which have to be solved numerically. A major difficulty with this approach is that all the parameters within these equations are not usually known. Coupled models that include biomolecular detail could help solve this problem. Coupling models across large ranges of length- and time-scales is central to describing complex systems and therefore to biology. Such coupling may be performed in at least two different ways, which we refer to as hierarchical and hybrid multiscale modelling. While limited progress has been made in the former case, the latter is only beginning to be addressed systematically. These modelling methods are expected to bring numerous benefits to biology, for example, the properties of a system could be studied over a wider range of length- and time-scales, a key aim of systems biology. Multiscale models couple behaviour at the molecular biological level to that at the cellular level, thereby providing a route for calculating many unknown parameters as well as investigating the effects at, for example, the cellular level, of small changes at the biomolecular level, such as a genetic mutation or the presence of a drug. The modelling and simulation of biomolecular systems is itself very computationally intensive; we describe a recently developed hybrid continuum-molecular model, HybridMD, and its associated molecular insertion algorithm, which point the way towards the

  12. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freedman, Vicky L.; Truex, Michael J.; Rockhold, Mark L.; Bacon, Diana H.; Freshley, Mark D.; Wellman, Dawn M.

    2017-09-01

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this report, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: (1) modeling approach, (2) description of process, and (3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil-vapor-extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  13. Cognitive Illusions as Hindrances to Learning Complex Environmental Issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves, Fred H.; Pugh, Ava F.

    2002-01-01

    Describes a study investigating the effects of short-term interventions on preservice elementary teachers' understanding of the topic of ozone depletion and whether complex issues can be dealt with successfully through short-term intervention. Reports that preservice teachers' understanding improved through a short-term intervention using a mix of…

  14. Environmental study of the waters of Mandovi - Zuari estuarine complex, Goa

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Singbal, S.Y.S.

    variations of some environmental parameters at different stations at surface and bottom waters of complex were studied during 1972-73, 1975 and 1977-78. In general, weak thermal stratification is developed at some stations during monsoon and post...

  15. Delineating Parameter Unidentifiabilities in Complex Models

    CERN Document Server

    Raman, Dhruva V; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2016-01-01

    Scientists use mathematical modelling to understand and predict the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parameterised models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or nearly so. These are known as structural or practical unidentifiabilities, respectively. They are hard to diagnose and make reliable parameter estimation from data impossible. They furthermore imply the existence of an underlying model simplification. We describe a scalable method for detecting unidentifiabilities, and the functional relations defining them, for generic models. This allows for model simplification, and appreciation of which parameters (or functions thereof) cannot be estimated from data. Our algorithm can identify features such as redundant mechanisms and fast timescale subsystems, as well as the regimes in which such approximations are valid. We base our algorithm on a novel quantification of regional parametric sensitivity: multiscale sloppiness. Traditional...

  16. Computing the complexity for Schelling segregation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhold, Stefan; Glebsky, Lev; Schneider, Carsten; Weiss, Howard; Zimmermann, Burkhard

    2008-12-01

    The Schelling segregation models are "agent based" population models, where individual members of the population (agents) interact directly with other agents and move in space and time. In this note we study one-dimensional Schelling population models as finite dynamical systems. We define a natural notion of entropy which measures the complexity of the family of these dynamical systems. The entropy counts the asymptotic growth rate of the number of limit states. We find formulas and deduce precise asymptotics for the number of limit states, which enable us to explicitly compute the entropy.

  17. Advancing an Information Model for Environmental Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsburgh, J. S.; Aufdenkampe, A. K.; Hooper, R. P.; Lehnert, K. A.; Schreuders, K.; Tarboton, D. G.; Valentine, D. W.; Zaslavsky, I.

    2011-12-01

    have been modified to support data management for the Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs). This paper will present limitations of the existing information model used by the CUAHSI HIS that have been uncovered through its deployment and use, as well as new advances to the information model, including: better representation of both in situ observations from field sensors and observations derived from environmental samples, extensibility in attributes used to describe observations, and observation provenance. These advances have been developed by the HIS team and the broader scientific community and will enable the information model to accommodate and better describe wider classes of environmental observations and to better meet the needs of the hydrologic science and CZO communities.

  18. Environmental Perceptions of Rural South African Residents: The Complex Nature of Environmental Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M.; Strife, Susie; Twine, Wayne

    2009-01-01

    The state of the local environment shapes the well-being of millions of rural residents in developing nations. Still, we know little of these individuals’ environmental perceptions. This study analyzes survey data collected in an impoverished, rural region in northeast South Africa, to understand the factors that shape concern with local environmental issues. We use the “post-materialist thesis” to explore the different explanations for environmental concern in less developed regions of the world, with results revealing the importance of both cultural and physical context. In particular, gendered interaction with natural resources shapes perceptions, as does the local setting. Both theoretical and policy implications are discussed. PMID:20514147

  19. Environmental Perceptions of Rural South African Residents: The Complex Nature of Environmental Concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Strife, Susie; Twine, Wayne

    2010-06-01

    The state of the local environment shapes the well-being of millions of rural residents in developing nations. Still, we know little of these individuals' environmental perceptions. This study analyzes survey data collected in an impoverished, rural region in northeast South Africa, to understand the factors that shape concern with local environmental issues. We use the "post-materialist thesis" to explore the different explanations for environmental concern in less developed regions of the world, with results revealing the importance of both cultural and physical context. In particular, gendered interaction with natural resources shapes perceptions, as does the local setting. Both theoretical and policy implications are discussed.

  20. Understanding the Carbon Isotopic Signature in Complex Environmental Matrices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Natali

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Elemental and isotopic analyses of carbon in environmental matrices usually integrate multiple sources having distinct concentration (wt% and 13C/12C isotopic ratio. Interpretation necessarily needs the characterization of the diverse end-members that usually are constituted by carbonate, organic and elemental components. In this view, we developed a routine protocol based on the analytical coupling of elementary and isotopic compositions that is able to discriminate the inorganic (TIC and organic (TOC contributions to the total carbon (TC content. The procedure is only based on thermal destabilization of the different carbon species and has been successfully applied on different environmental matrices (rocks, soils, biological samples with a mean C elemental and isotopic recovery of 99% (SD = 3% and -0.3‰ (SD = 0.3‰, respectively. The thermal speciation lead us to define precise isotopic end-members whose are unaffected by any chemical treatment of the samples. The approach allows accurate mass balance calculation that represents a powerful tool to quantify the distinct carbon species.

  1. Study on Circular Complex viewed from Environmental Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeguchi, Tomoo; Adachi, Katsushige; Yoshikawa, Akira; Hiratsuka, Akira; Tsujino, Ryoji; Iguchi, Manabu

    In machining processes, cutting fluids are generally used for cooling and lubricating workpieces at the point cutting. However, these fluids frequently include chlorine, sulfur, phosphorus, or other additives. The chemicals not only become a mist affecting the health of workers engaged in the processing but also make the workshop environment worse. In particular, the chlorine becomes one of the causes of global warming by treating waste oil under high temperature conditions. It is furthermore said that huge cost beyond the purchase cost of oil occurs and dioxins (carcinogen) usually exist in the waste oil. Therefore, an environmentally-friendly cooling-air cutting system is required from the standpoint of green manufacturing. This system has been noted as a technique to solve the issues against the environment mentioned above. In the cooling-air cutting processing, the amount of CO2 emission shows a low value compared with the dry cutting one which uses oil. It is therefore thought that the cooling-air cutting system is a very important processing technique as an environmental countermeasure. At present, in strictly economic and environmental situations, the compatibility of the betterment of production efficiency with the improvement of environment is a subject in the actual spot of a cut processing. This study deals with the test results of cooling-air drilling performance from the viewpoint of taking green manufacturing into account. The workpiece made of die steel SKDll was manufactured by the cooling-air drilling performance at a revolution of 840 rpm and a temperature of -20°C with a high-speed steel drill (SKH56). The results were compared with those for the dry cutting performance. The main results obtained in this study are as follows: 1) The tool life for cooling-air drilling performance was about 6 times as long as that for the dry cutting performance. 2) The chip temperature for cooling-air drilling was 220°C lower than that for the dry cutting

  2. Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; McCafferty, Anne E.; Clark, Roger N.

    2016-02-08

    IntroductionThis circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond.In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some

  3. Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; McCafferty, Anne E.; Clark, Roger N.

    2016-02-08

    IntroductionThis circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond.In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some

  4. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  5. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  6. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  7. Power distribution in complex environmental negotiations: Does balance matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkardt, N.; Lamb, B.L.; Taylor, J.G.

    1997-01-01

    We studied six interagency negotiations covering Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydroelectric power licenses. Negotiations occurred between state and federal resource agencies and developers over project operations and natural resource mitigation. We postulated that a balance of power among parties was necessary for successful negotiations. We found a complex relationship between balanced power and success and conclude that a balance of power was associated with success in these negotiations. Power played a dynamic role in the bargaining and illuminates important considerations for regulatory design.

  8. Modeling auditory evoked potentials to complex stimuli

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rønne, Filip Munch

    The auditory evoked potential (AEP) is an electrical signal that can be recorded from electrodes attached to the scalp of a human subject when a sound is presented. The signal is considered to reflect neural activity in response to the acoustic stimulation and is a well established clinical...... clinically and in research towards using realistic and complex stimuli, such as speech, to electrophysiologically assess the human hearing. However, to interpret the AEP generation to complex sounds, the potential patterns in response to simple stimuli needs to be understood. Therefore, the model was used...... to simulate auditory brainstem responses (ABRs) evoked by classic stimuli like clicks, tone bursts and chirps. The ABRs to these simple stimuli were compared to literature data and the model was shown to predict the frequency dependence of tone-burst ABR wave-V latency and the level-dependence of ABR wave...

  9. Modeling and analyze of the environmental factors of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch in complex environment%复杂环境下舰载机弹射起飞环境因素建模分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭元江; 李会杰; 申功璋; 杨汀

    2011-01-01

    舰载机弹射起飞过程复杂,受到甲板运动、舰首气流、地面效应等复杂环境因素的影响.通过构建甲板运动模型、甲板风模型和地面效应模型,描述了弹射起飞过程中复杂的外部环境,并视为附加项加入到常规飞机方程中,建立了舰载机弹射起飞模型.研究表明:地面效应不利于舰载机弹射起飞;甲板风与舰首气流可抑制航迹下沉;舰面运动对舰载机离舰后下沉量影响很大.%The process of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch was complex,disturbed by the motion of aircraft carrier,deck wind,disturbance ahead of the bow and ground effect.The condition of carrier-based aircraft catapult launch was described by the simulation model of motion of aircraft carrier,deck wind,disturbance ahead of the bow and ground effect.The simulation model considering the condition of circumstance was composed of the model of plane and the model of circumstance condition,as the added factor.The results indicate that ground effect increases the flight path sinking,and the deck wind can help to decrease the flight path sinking during the catapult takeoff process.In addition,the motion of aircraft carrier has some important effects on maximum sinking and angle of attack.

  10. FRAM Modelling Complex Socio-technical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-01-01

    There has not yet been a comprehensive method that goes behind 'human error' and beyond the failure concept, and various complicated accidents have accentuated the need for it. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) fulfils that need. This book presents a detailed and tested method that can be used to model how complex and dynamic socio-technical systems work, and understand both why things sometimes go wrong but also why they normally succeed.

  11. Noncommutative complex Grosse-Wulkenhaar model

    CERN Document Server

    Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert

    2012-01-01

    This paper stands for an application of the noncommutative (NC) Noether theorem, given in our previous work [AIP Proc 956 (2007) 55-60], for the NC complex Grosse-Wulkenhaar model. It provides with an extension of a recent work [Physics Letters B 653 (2007) 343-345]. The local conservation of energy-momentum tensors (EMTs) is recovered using improvement procedures based on Moyal algebraic techniques. Broken dilatation symmetry is discussed. NC gauge currents are also explicitly computed.

  12. The noisy voter model on complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Carro, Adrián; Miguel, Maxi San

    2016-01-01

    We propose a new analytical method to study stochastic, binary-state models on complex networks. Moving beyond the usual mean-field theories, this alternative approach is based on the introduction of an uncorrelated network approximation, allowing to deal with the network structure as parametric heterogeneity. As an illustration, we study the noisy voter model, a modification of the original voter model including random changes of state. The proposed method is able to unfold the dependence of the model not only on the mean degree (the mean-field prediction) but also on more complex averages over the degree distribution. In particular, we find that the degree heterogeneity ---variance of the underlying degree distribution--- has a strong influence on the location of the critical point of a noise-induced, finite-size transition occurring in the model, on the local ordering of the system, and on the functional form of its temporal correlations. Finally, we show how this latter point opens the possibility of infe...

  13. t-GIS AND ENVIRONMENTAL DYNAMIC MODELS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Temporal geographic information system(t-GIS) is a kind of computer information system that can display,process and analyze the micro-format distribution of temporal-spatial information of real world.It includes both spatial geographic information and temporal information,and can analyze both the static geographic information and the dynamic geographic information.Three models based on t-GIS for environment dynamics,namely,the mechanism method,the experience method and the mixed method are given.t-GIS based on the environment dynamic model has more new functions than traditional GIS,such as fast I/O,inquiry,static/dynamic display and visible analysis of spatial and temporal sequence information,especially it can display the image of the evolution in the past,current and future environment through the extrapolation method within its defining region.The velocity for analogue display can be accelerated by setting up time-varying-area-function for position and attribute.Dynamic environmental information analysis systems based on t-GIS are applicable to almost all the fields related to management,display and analysis of local environmental dynamic information.For this reason,some considerations to construct distinct information systems have been enumerated in this paper,such as,the analysis information system for terrain evolution,the analysis information system for the condition of water and fertilizer of farmland,analysis and the evaluation information system for ecological environment,and the analysis information system for distribution changes of population of China,etc.

  14. Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael

    2015-12-02

    Dec 2, 2015 ... model of malaria using eight risk factors ranging from environmental to ... transmission. Keywords: Malaria, GIS, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Weighted Overlay ...... of Remote Sensing and GIS in Environmental Management,.

  15. Describing Ecosystem Complexity through Integrated Catchment Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shope, C. L.; Tenhunen, J. D.; Peiffer, S.

    2011-12-01

    Land use and climate change have been implicated in reduced ecosystem services (ie: high quality water yield, biodiversity, and agricultural yield. The prediction of ecosystem services expected under future land use decisions and changing climate conditions has become increasingly important. Complex policy and management decisions require the integration of physical, economic, and social data over several scales to assess effects on water resources and ecology. Field-based meteorology, hydrology, soil physics, plant production, solute and sediment transport, economic, and social behavior data were measured in a South Korean catchment. A variety of models are being used to simulate plot and field scale experiments within the catchment. Results from each of the local-scale models provide identification of sensitive, local-scale parameters which are then used as inputs into a large-scale watershed model. We used the spatially distributed SWAT model to synthesize the experimental field data throughout the catchment. The approach of our study was that the range in local-scale model parameter results can be used to define the sensitivity and uncertainty in the large-scale watershed model. Further, this example shows how research can be structured for scientific results describing complex ecosystems and landscapes where cross-disciplinary linkages benefit the end result. The field-based and modeling framework described is being used to develop scenarios to examine spatial and temporal changes in land use practices and climatic effects on water quantity, water quality, and sediment transport. Development of accurate modeling scenarios requires understanding the social relationship between individual and policy driven land management practices and the value of sustainable resources to all shareholders.

  16. Complex Constructivism: A Theoretical Model of Complexity and Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolittle, Peter E.

    2014-01-01

    Education has long been driven by its metaphors for teaching and learning. These metaphors have influenced both educational research and educational practice. Complexity and constructivism are two theories that provide functional and robust metaphors. Complexity provides a metaphor for the structure of myriad phenomena, while constructivism…

  17. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  18. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  19. A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

  20. Wind and diffusion modeling for complex terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, R.M.; Sontowski, J.; Fry, R.N. Jr. [and others

    1996-12-31

    Atmospheric transport and dispersion over complex terrain were investigated. Meteorological and sulfur hexafluoride (SF{sub 6}) concentration data were collected and used to evaluate the performance of a transport and diffusion model coupled with a mass consistency wind field model. Meteorological data were collected throughout April 1995. Both meteorological and concentration data were measured in December 1995. The data included 11 to 15 surface stations, 1 to 3 upper air stations, and 1 mobile profiler. A range of conditions was encountered, including inversion and post-inversion breakup, light to strong winds, and a broad distribution of wind directions. The models used included the SCIPUFF (Second-order Closure Integrated Puff) transport and diffusion model and the MINERVE mass consistency wind model. Evaluation of the models was focused primarily on their effectiveness as a short term (one to four hours) predictive tool. These studies showed how they can be used to help direct emergency response following a hazardous material release. For purposes of the experiments, the models were used to direct the deployment of mobile sensors intended to intercept and measure tracer clouds.

  1. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  2. Superelement Verification in Complex Structural Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Dupont

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is to propose decision indicators to guide the analyst in the optimal definition of an ensemble of superelements in a complex structural assembly. These indicators are constructed based on comparisons between the unreduced physical model and the approximate solution provided by a nominally reduced superelement model. First, the low contribution substructure slave modes are filtered. Then, the minimum dynamical residual expansion is used to localize the superelements which are the most responsible for the response prediction errors. Moreover, it is shown that static residual vectors, which are a natural result of these calculations, can be included to represent the contribution of important truncated slave modes and consequently correct the deficient superelements. The proposed methodology is illustrated on a subassembly of an aeroengine model.

  3. Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

    1988-01-01

    Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

  4. Does problem complexity matter for environmental policy delivery? How public authorities address problems of water governance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschke, Sabrina; Newig, Jens; Völker, Jeanette; Borchardt, Dietrich

    2017-03-08

    Problem complexity is often assumed to hamper effective environmental policy delivery. However, this claim is hardly substantiated, given the dominance of qualitative small-n designs in environmental governance research. We studied 37 types of contemporary problems defined by German water governance to assess the impact of problem complexity on policy delivery through public authorities. The analysis is based on a unique data set related to these problems, encompassing both in-depth interview-based data on complexities and independent official data on policy delivery. Our findings show that complexity in fact tends to delay implementation at the stage of planning. However, different dimensions of complexity (goals, variables, dynamics, interconnections, and uncertainty) impact on the different stages of policy delivery (goal formulation, stages and degrees of implementation) in various ways.

  5. Modeling the human prothrombinase complex components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orban, Tivadar

    Thrombin generation is the culminating stage of the blood coagulation process. Thrombin is obtained from prothrombin (the substrate) in a reaction catalyzed by the prothrombinase complex (the enzyme). The prothrombinase complex is composed of factor Xa (the enzyme), factor Va (the cofactor) associated in the presence of calcium ions on a negatively charged cell membrane. Factor Xa, alone, can activate prothrombin to thrombin; however, the rate of conversion is not physiologically relevant for survival. Incorporation of factor Va into prothrombinase accelerates the rate of prothrombinase activity by 300,000-fold, and provides the physiological pathway of thrombin generation. The long-term goal of the current proposal is to provide the necessary support for the advancing of studies to design potential drug candidates that may be used to avoid development of deep venous thrombosis in high-risk patients. The short-term goals of the present proposal are to (1) to propose a model of a mixed asymmetric phospholipid bilayer, (2) expand the incomplete model of human coagulation factor Va and study its interaction with the phospholipid bilayer, (3) to create a homology model of prothrombin (4) to study the dynamics of interaction between prothrombin and the phospholipid bilayer.

  6. Dynamic modeling of environmental risk associated with drilling discharges to marine sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durgut, İsmail; Rye, Henrik; Reed, Mark; Smit, Mathijs G D; Ditlevsen, May Kristin

    2015-10-15

    Drilling discharges are complex mixtures of base-fluids, chemicals and particulates, and may, after discharge to the marine environment, result in adverse effects on benthic communities. A numerical model was developed to estimate the fate of drilling discharges in the marine environment, and associated environmental risks. Environmental risk from deposited drilling waste in marine sediments is generally caused by four types of stressors: oxygen depletion, toxicity, burial and change of grain size. In order to properly model these stressors, natural burial, biodegradation and bioturbation processes were also included. Diagenetic equations provide the basis for quantifying environmental risk. These equations are solved numerically by an implicit-central differencing scheme. The sediment model described here is, together with a fate and risk model focusing on the water column, implemented in the DREAM and OSCAR models, both available within the Marine Environmental Modeling Workbench (MEMW) at SINTEF in Trondheim, Norway.

  7. Chaos from simple models to complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Cencini, Massimo; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2010-01-01

    Chaos: from simple models to complex systems aims to guide science and engineering students through chaos and nonlinear dynamics from classical examples to the most recent fields of research. The first part, intended for undergraduate and graduate students, is a gentle and self-contained introduction to the concepts and main tools for the characterization of deterministic chaotic systems, with emphasis to statistical approaches. The second part can be used as a reference by researchers as it focuses on more advanced topics including the characterization of chaos with tools of information theor

  8. On Complexity of the Quantum Ising Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravyi, Sergey; Hastings, Matthew

    2017-01-01

    We study complexity of several problems related to the Transverse field Ising Model (TIM). First, we consider the problem of estimating the ground state energy known as the Local Hamiltonian Problem (LHP). It is shown that the LHP for TIM on degree-3 graphs is equivalent modulo polynomial reductions to the LHP for general k-local `stoquastic' Hamiltonians with any constant {k ≥ 2}. This result implies that estimating the ground state energy of TIM on degree-3 graphs is a complete problem for the complexity class {StoqMA} —an extension of the classical class {MA}. As a corollary, we complete the complexity classification of 2-local Hamiltonians with a fixed set of interactions proposed recently by Cubitt and Montanaro. Secondly, we study quantum annealing algorithms for finding ground states of classical spin Hamiltonians associated with hard optimization problems. We prove that the quantum annealing with TIM Hamiltonians is equivalent modulo polynomial reductions to the quantum annealing with a certain subclass of k-local stoquastic Hamiltonians. This subclass includes all Hamiltonians representable as a sum of a k-local diagonal Hamiltonian and a 2-local stoquastic Hamiltonian.

  9. Concept of Complex Environmental Monitoring Network - Vardzia Rock Cut City Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elashvili, Mikheil; Vacheishvili, Nikoloz; Margottini, Claudio; Basilaia, Giorgi; Chkhaidze, Davit; Kvavadze, Davit; Spizzichino, Daniele; Boscagli, Franceso; Kirkitadze, Giorgi; Adikashvili, Luka; Navrozashvili, Levan

    2016-04-01

    Vardzia represents an unique cultural heritage monument - rock cut city, which unites architectural monument and Natural-Geological complex. Such monuments are particularly vulnerable and their restoration and conservation requires complex approach. It is curved in various layers of volcanic tuffs and covers several hectares of area, with chronologically different segments of construction. This monument, as many similar monuments worldwide, is subjected to slow but permanent process of destruction, expressed in following factors: surface weathering of rock, active tectonics (aseismic displacement along the active faults and earthquakes), interaction between lithologically different rock layers, existence of major cracks and associated complex block structure, surface rainwater runoff and infiltrated ground water, temperature variations, etc. During its lifetime, Vardzia was heavily damaged by Historical Earthquake of 1283 and only partly restored afterwards. The technological progress together with the increased knowledge about ongoing environmental processes, established the common understanding that the complex monitoring of the environment represents the essential component for resolving such a principal issues, as: Proper management and prevention of natural disasters; Modeling of environmental processes, their short and long term prognosis; Monitoring of macro and micro climate; Safe functioning and preservation of important constructions. Research Center of Cultural Heritage and Environment of Ilia State University in cooperation with Experts from ISPRA, with the funding from the State agency of Cultural Heritage, has developed a concept of Vardzia complex monitoring network. Concept of the network includes: monitoring local meteorological conditions (meteorological station), monitoring microclimate in caves (temperature and humidity in the air and rock), monitoring microtremors and ambient seismic noise in Vardzia (local strong motion network), monitoring

  10. Governance of complex socio-environmental risks: the case of hazardous chemicals in the Baltic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Mikael; Gilek, Michael; Udovyk, Oksana

    2011-03-01

    Complex socio-environmental risks challenge society. In response to scientific uncertainty and sociopolitical controversies, environmental governance, precaution, and the ecosystem approach to management are held forward as complements to governmental risk-based sector-restricted regulation. We analyze this development for hazardous substances in the Baltic Sea. Based on interviews and policy analysis, we study informal governance and, in particular, four central EU and international policies, and investigate how present governance relates to risks and objectives at hand. While showing emergence of broader governance approaches, we conclude that central objectives will not likely be met. Furthermore, we question the quest for broad environmental governance and emphasize the value of command and control regulation, if it implements precaution. These findings contribute to the theorizing on environmental (risk) governance. Finally, we provide some ideas that could help development and implementation of risk policies for hazardous chemicals in the Baltic Sea as well as other complex risks.

  11. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  12. Wind and Diffusion Modeling for Complex Terrain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Robert M.; Sontowski, John; Fry, Richard N., Jr.; Dougherty, Catherine M.; Smith, Thomas J.

    1998-10-01

    Atmospheric transport and dispersion over complex terrain were investigated. Meteorological and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) concentration data were collected and used to evaluate the performance of a transport and diffusion model coupled with a mass consistency wind field model. Meteorological data were collected throughout April 1995. Both meteorological and plume location and concentration data were measured in December 1995. The meteorological data included measurements taken at 11-15 surface stations, one to three upper-air stations, and one mobile profiler. A range of conditions was encountered, including inversion and postinversion breakup, light to strong winds, and a broad distribution of wind directions.The models used were the MINERVE mass consistency wind model and the SCIPUFF (Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff) transport and diffusion model. These models were expected to provide and use high-resolution three-dimensional wind fields. An objective of the experiment was to determine if these models could provide emergency personnel with high-resolution hazardous plume information for quick response operations.Evaluation of the models focused primarily on their effectiveness as a short-term (1-4 h) predictive tool. These studies showed how they could be used to help direct emergency response following a hazardous material release. For purposes of the experiments, the models were used to direct the deployment of mobile sensors intended to intercept and measure tracer clouds.The April test was conducted to evaluate the performance of the MINERVE wind field generation model. It was evaluated during the early morning radiation inversion, inversion dissipation, and afternoon mixed atmosphere. The average deviations in wind speed and wind direction as compared to observations were within 0.4 m s1 and less than 10° for up to 2 h after data time. These deviations increased as time from data time increased. It was also found that deviations were greatest during

  13. METHODOLOGY FOR EXPOSURE AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION SITUATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Frequently environmental pollution results from different hazardous substances released in the environment, meaning that contaminated sites may have many different chemical sources and transport pathways. Problems concerning environmental pollution affect mainly physical, chemical and biological properties of air, water and soil. The relationships between the sources, exposure and effects of contaminants to human and ecological receptors are complex and many times are specific to a particular...

  14. Complexity, Vulnerability Processes and Environmental Justice: An Essay in Political Epistemology*

    OpenAIRE

    Porto,Marcelo Firpo de Souza

    2012-01-01

    This paper, in the form of an essay, discusses the potentialities and limits of the concept of vulnerability concerning the integrated analysis of social and environmental problems. It focuses on two perspectives. The first one derives from post-normal science, considered as a new epistemological and methodological basis for the analysis and management of complex environmental problems. For this purpose, the author analyses the concept of vulnerability within the context of four phenomenal wo...

  15. Extension of association models to complex chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Ane Søgaard

    Summary of “Extension of association models to complex chemicals”. Ph.D. thesis by Ane Søgaard Avlund The subject of this thesis is application of SAFT type equations of state (EoS). Accurate and predictive thermodynamic models are important in many industries including the petroleum industry....... The SAFT EoS was developed 20 years ago, and a large number of papers on the subject has been published since, but many issues still remain unsolved. These issues are both theoretical and practical. The SAFT theory does not account for intramolecular association, it can only treat flexible chains, and does...... not account for steric self-hindrance for tree-like structures. An important practical problem is how to obtain optimal and consistent parameters. Moreover, multifunctional associating molecules represent a special challenge. In this work two equations of state using the SAFT theory for association are used...

  16. Precalibrating an intermediate complexity climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Neil R. [The Open University, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Milton Keynes (United Kingdom); Cameron, David [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh (United Kingdom); Rougier, Jonathan [University of Bristol, Department of Mathematics, Bristol (United Kingdom)

    2011-10-15

    Credible climate predictions require a rational quantification of uncertainty, but full Bayesian calibration requires detailed estimates of prior probability distributions and covariances, which are difficult to obtain in practice. We describe a simplified procedure, termed precalibration, which provides an approximate quantification of uncertainty in climate prediction, and requires only that uncontroversially implausible values of certain inputs and outputs are identified. The method is applied to intermediate-complexity model simulations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and confirms the existence of a cliff-edge catastrophe in freshwater-forcing input space. When uncertainty in 14 further parameters is taken into account, an implausible, AMOC-off, region remains as a robust feature of the model dynamics, but its location is found to depend strongly on values of the other parameters. (orig.)

  17. Bacterial biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relations are modified by environmental complexity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke Langenheder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity

  18. Delineating parameter unidentifiabilities in complex models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raman, Dhruva V.; Anderson, James; Papachristodoulou, Antonis

    2017-03-01

    Scientists use mathematical modeling as a tool for understanding and predicting the properties of complex physical systems. In highly parametrized models there often exist relationships between parameters over which model predictions are identical, or nearly identical. These are known as structural or practical unidentifiabilities, respectively. They are hard to diagnose and make reliable parameter estimation from data impossible. They furthermore imply the existence of an underlying model simplification. We describe a scalable method for detecting unidentifiabilities, as well as the functional relations defining them, for generic models. This allows for model simplification, and appreciation of which parameters (or functions thereof) cannot be estimated from data. Our algorithm can identify features such as redundant mechanisms and fast time-scale subsystems, as well as the regimes in parameter space over which such approximations are valid. We base our algorithm on a quantification of regional parametric sensitivity that we call `multiscale sloppiness'. Traditionally, the link between parametric sensitivity and the conditioning of the parameter estimation problem is made locally, through the Fisher information matrix. This is valid in the regime of infinitesimal measurement uncertainty. We demonstrate the duality between multiscale sloppiness and the geometry of confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates made where measurement uncertainty is non-negligible. Further theoretical relationships are provided linking multiscale sloppiness to the likelihood-ratio test. From this, we show that a local sensitivity analysis (as typically done) is insufficient for determining the reliability of parameter estimation, even with simple (non)linear systems. Our algorithm can provide a tractable alternative. We finally apply our methods to a large-scale, benchmark systems biology model of necrosis factor (NF)-κ B , uncovering unidentifiabilities.

  19. From process complexity to communication effectiveness: A challenge to those within and outside of the environmental sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, K. E.; McGlynn, B. L.

    2014-12-01

    Interdisciplinary work has become a cornerstone in research across the environmental sciences. Our work does so by evaluating biogeochemical cycling, specifically methane, in the context of landscape hydrology. Atmospheric methane is a greenhouse gas 27 times more potent than carbon dioxide and has been increasing at an unprecedented rate. This drastic increase in atmospheric methane has been attributed to anthropogenic activities such as burning of fossil fuels, ruminants, and rice cultivation, which together constitute approximately 67% of global methane sources. Characterizing CH4 flux in natural systems has remained difficult due to complex relationships among environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and soil water content). To address this, we focus on how the redistribution of water in complex terrain influences the magnitude and direction of flux in upland and riparian soils. Distilling this complex behavior and scaling these observations is complicated by interacting feedback loops and uncertainties associated with global scale modeling. However, progress is critical given that predicting future climate is necessary to forecasting the quantity and distribution of available fresh water, and understanding how ecosystem processes, and energy/food production will be affected. Water sciences and environmental science as a whole must improve communication to a range of audiences, and advocate for researchers, policy makers, and business leaders to work together for a more sustainable future. A crucial step in this process is to optimize the appropriate level of information to convey that is both memorable and meaningful given the complexity of environmental systems. The challenge also extends to artists and filmmakers to present the subject in compelling ways that inspire audiences to take action in their own communities. True integration of professionals across environmental, social, political, and economic disciplines while motivating local involvement

  20. Using Perspective to Model Complex Processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelsey, R.L.; Bisset, K.R.

    1999-04-04

    The notion of perspective, when supported in an object-based knowledge representation, can facilitate better abstractions of reality for modeling and simulation. The object modeling of complex physical and chemical processes is made more difficult in part due to the poor abstractions of state and phase changes available in these models. The notion of perspective can be used to create different views to represent the different states of matter in a process. These techniques can lead to a more understandable model. Additionally, the ability to record the progress of a process from start to finish is problematic. It is desirable to have a historic record of the entire process, not just the end result of the process. A historic record should facilitate backtracking and re-start of a process at different points in time. The same representation structures and techniques can be used to create a sequence of process markers to represent a historic record. By using perspective, the sequence of markers can have multiple and varying views tailored for a particular user's context of interest.

  1. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator-prey models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, U.; Täuber, U. C.

    2013-10-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka-Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization.

  2. On hydrological model complexity, its geometrical interpretations and prediction uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arkesteijn, E.C.M.M.; Pande, S.

    2013-01-01

    Knowledge of hydrological model complexity can aid selection of an optimal prediction model out of a set of available models. Optimal model selection is formalized as selection of the least complex model out of a subset of models that have lower empirical risk. This may be considered equivalent to

  3. Web mapping system for complex processing and visualization of environmental geospatial datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor

    2016-04-01

    Environmental geospatial datasets (meteorological observations, modeling and reanalysis results, etc.) are used in numerous research applications. Due to a number of objective reasons such as inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets, big dataset volume, complexity of data models used, syntactic and semantic differences that complicate creation and use of unified terminology, the development of environmental geodata access, processing and visualization services as well as client applications turns out to be quite a sophisticated task. According to general INSPIRE requirements to data visualization geoportal web applications have to provide such standard functionality as data overview, image navigation, scrolling, scaling and graphical overlay, displaying map legends and corresponding metadata information. It should be noted that modern web mapping systems as integrated geoportal applications are developed based on the SOA and might be considered as complexes of interconnected software tools for working with geospatial data. In the report a complex web mapping system including GIS web client and corresponding OGC services for working with geospatial (NetCDF, PostGIS) dataset archive is presented. There are three basic tiers of the GIS web client in it: 1. Tier of geospatial metadata retrieved from central MySQL repository and represented in JSON format 2. Tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods handling: --- NetCDF metadata --- Task XML object for configuring user calculations, input and output formats --- OGC WMS/WFS cartographical services 3. Graphical user interface (GUI) tier representing JavaScript objects realizing web application business logic Metadata tier consists of a number of JSON objects containing technical information describing geospatial datasets (such as spatio-temporal resolution, meteorological parameters, valid processing methods, etc). The middleware tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods for handling geospatial

  4. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    South African Journal of Animal Science 2005, 35 (1) ... Genetic and environmental parameters were estimated for pre- and post-weaning average daily gain ..... and BWT (and medium maternal genetic correlations) indicates that these traits ...

  5. Ants (Formicidae): models for social complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Chris R; Dolezal, Adam; Eliyahu, Dorit; Holbrook, C Tate; Gadau, Jürgen

    2009-07-01

    The family Formicidae (ants) is composed of more than 12,000 described species that vary greatly in size, morphology, behavior, life history, ecology, and social organization. Ants occur in most terrestrial habitats and are the dominant animals in many of them. They have been used as models to address fundamental questions in ecology, evolution, behavior, and development. The literature on ants is extensive, and the natural history of many species is known in detail. Phylogenetic relationships for the family, as well as within many subfamilies, are known, enabling comparative studies. Their ease of sampling and ecological variation makes them attractive for studying populations and questions relating to communities. Their sociality and variation in social organization have contributed greatly to an understanding of complex systems, division of labor, and chemical communication. Ants occur in colonies composed of tens to millions of individuals that vary greatly in morphology, physiology, and behavior; this variation has been used to address proximate and ultimate mechanisms generating phenotypic plasticity. Relatedness asymmetries within colonies have been fundamental to the formulation and empirical testing of kin and group selection theories. Genomic resources have been developed for some species, and a whole-genome sequence for several species is likely to follow in the near future; comparative genomics in ants should provide new insights into the evolution of complexity and sociogenomics. Future studies using ants should help establish a more comprehensive understanding of social life, from molecules to colonies.

  6. Green technical innovation,environmental expenditure,and the environmental Kuznets curve:a dynamics model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cai Zhonghua

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between the emission of pollutant and economic growth has attracted a lot of attention in the environmental debate of the recent decades.Based on some theoretical and empirical research on environmental Kuznets curve(EKC),this paper introduces the environmental technical innovation and environmental investmen into Solow growth model to discuss the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission of pollutant.By the dvnamic simulation and parameters analysis,the results of the model indicate(1) when "green"technical progress and environmental investment are.fixed,the relationship between GDP per capital and the emission shows the linear elationship;(2)"green"technical progress can lead to the positive growth rates with a decreasing level of emision,which is compatible with an EKC;(3) the proportion of the environmental investment can lead the different growth rates and level of emission.These results can explain that developing countries are"too poor to be green".

  7. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  8. Unmix 6.0 Model for environmental data analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unmix Model is a mathematical receptor model developed by EPA scientists that provides scientific support for the development and review of the air and water quality standards, exposure research, and environmental forensics.

  9. Modelling of Electrokinetic Processes in Civil and Environmental Engineering Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paz-Garcia, Juan Manuel; Johannesson, Björn; Ottosen, Lisbeth M.

    2011-01-01

    A mathematical model for the electrokinetic phenomena is described. Numerical simulations of different applications of electrokinetic techniques to the fields of civil and environmental engineering are included, showing the versatility and consistency of the model. The electrokinetics phenomena...

  10. The Complexities of Teachers' Commitment to Environmental Education: A Mixed Methods Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosu, Edward M.; McWilliam, Angus; Gray, Donald S.

    2008-01-01

    This article argues that a mixed methods approach is useful in understanding the complexity that underlies teachers' commitment to environmental education. Using sequential and concurrent procedures, the authors demonstrate how different methodological approaches highlighted different aspects of teacher commitment. The quantitative survey examined…

  11. Limitations of multimedia models for use in environmental decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis, C C; Obenshain, K R; Regens, J L; Whipple, C G

    2001-09-01

    The United States currently is engaged in a complex, multi-billion dollar effort to cleanup a legacy of both privately- and federally-owned hazardous waste sites. Decisions regarding the best approach for remediation of these sites often are based on the analysis of potential risks to human health and the environment. A cornerstone of such analysis is the frequent use of computerized multimedia environmental transport models, to evaluate the large quantities of information necessary to understand the present and future implications of contamination at a site. One barrier to wide-spread use of this analytical procedure is the view that results obtained using computer models are highly dependent on user input, and therefore, subject to manipulation. It is widely recognized that for decisions to be both credible and implementable, the public must have confidence in both the scientific basis for judgments involved and the decision processes employed (NRC, 1983). Our purpose in this article is to overview the difficulties associated with application of multimedia models to real world problems and the contribution these models can make to technically sound estimates of exposure and risk.

  12. Complex dynamics of life at different scales: from genomic to global environmental issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anteneodo, C; da Luz, M G E

    2010-12-28

    This introduction to the Theme Issue, Complex dynamics of life at different scales: from genomic to global environmental issues, gives a short overview on why the ideas and concepts in complexity and nonlinearity are relevant to the understanding of life in its different manifestations. Also, it discusses how life phenomena can be thought of as composing different scales of organization. Finally, the articles in this thematic publication are briefly commented on in terms of their relevance in helping to understand the complexity of life systems.

  13. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  14. Quantum correlations dynamics under different non-markovian environmental models

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, Ying-Jie; Shan, Chuan-Jia; Xia, Yun-Jie

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the roles of different environmental models on quantum correlation dynamics of two-qubit composite system interacting with two independent environments. The most common environmental models (the single-Lorentzian model, the squared-Lorentzian model, the two-Lorentzian model and band-gap model) are analyzed. First, we note that for the weak coupling regime, the monotonous decay speed of the quantum correlation is mainly determined by the spectral density functions of these different environments. Then, by considering the strong coupling regime we find that, contrary to what is stated in the weak coupling regime, the dynamics of quantum correlation depends on the non-Markovianity of the environmental models, and is independent of the environmental spectrum density functions.

  15. Ecological niche modeling in Maxent: the importance of model complexity and the performance of model selection criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Dan L; Seifert, Stephanie N

    2011-03-01

    Maxent, one of the most commonly used methods for inferring species distributions and environmental tolerances from occurrence data, allows users to fit models of arbitrary complexity. Model complexity is typically constrained via a process known as L1 regularization, but at present little guidance is available for setting the appropriate level of regularization, and the effects of inappropriately complex or simple models are largely unknown. In this study, we demonstrate the use of information criterion approaches to setting regularization in Maxent, and we compare models selected using information criteria to models selected using other criteria that are common in the literature. We evaluate model performance using occurrence data generated from a known "true" initial Maxent model, using several different metrics for model quality and transferability. We demonstrate that models that are inappropriately complex or inappropriately simple show reduced ability to infer habitat quality, reduced ability to infer the relative importance of variables in constraining species' distributions, and reduced transferability to other time periods. We also demonstrate that information criteria may offer significant advantages over the methods commonly used in the literature.

  16. Analytical models for complex swirling flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borissov, A.; Hussain, V.

    1996-11-01

    We develops a new class of analytical solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations for swirling flows, and suggests ways to predict and control such flows occurring in various technological applications. We view momentum accumulation on the axis as a key feature of swirling flows and consider vortex-sink flows on curved axisymmetric surfaces with an axial flow. We show that these solutions model swirling flows in a cylindrical can, whirlpools, tornadoes, and cosmic swirling jets. The singularity of these solutions on the flow axis is removed by matching them with near-axis Schlichting and Long's swirling jets. The matched solutions model flows with very complex patterns, consisting of up to seven separation regions with recirculatory 'bubbles' and vortex rings. We apply the matched solutions for computing flows in the Ranque-Hilsch tube, in the meniscus of electrosprays, in vortex breakdown, and in an industrial vortex burner. The simple analytical solutions allow a clear understanding of how different control parameters affect the flow and guide selection of optimal parameter values for desired flow features. These solutions permit extension to other problems (such as heat transfer and chemical reaction) and have the potential of being significantly useful for further detailed investigation by direct or large-eddy numerical simulations as well as laboratory experimentation.

  17. Discrete Element Modeling of Complex Granular Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Movshovitz, N.; Asphaug, E. I.

    2010-12-01

    Granular materials occur almost everywhere in nature, and are actively studied in many fields of research, from food industry to planetary science. One approach to the study of granular media, the continuum approach, attempts to find a constitutive law that determines the material's flow, or strain, under applied stress. The main difficulty with this approach is that granular systems exhibit different behavior under different conditions, behaving at times as an elastic solid (e.g. pile of sand), at times as a viscous fluid (e.g. when poured), or even as a gas (e.g. when shaken). Even if all these physics are accounted for, numerical implementation is made difficult by the wide and often discontinuous ranges in continuum density and sound speed. A different approach is Discrete Element Modeling (DEM). Here the goal is to directly model every grain in the system as a rigid body subject to various body and surface forces. The advantage of this method is that it treats all of the above regimes in the same way, and can easily deal with a system moving back and forth between regimes. But as a granular system typically contains a multitude of individual grains, the direct integration of the system can be very computationally expensive. For this reason most DEM codes are limited to spherical grains of uniform size. However, spherical grains often cannot replicate the behavior of real world granular systems. A simple pile of spherical grains, for example, relies on static friction alone to keep its shape, while in reality a pile of irregular grains can maintain a much steeper angle by interlocking force chains. In the present study we employ a commercial DEM, nVidia's PhysX Engine, originally designed for the game and animation industry, to simulate complex granular flows with irregular, non-spherical grains. This engine runs as a multi threaded process and can be GPU accelerated. We demonstrate the code's ability to physically model granular materials in the three regimes

  18. Preliminary assessment of the Long Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex environmental contaminants background study: Fourth year results

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report represents the results of the fourth year of the multi-year study, the Long Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Complex) Environmental Contaminants...

  19. Preliminary assessment of the Long Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex Environmental contaminants background survey: Second year results

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report represents the preliminary results of the second year of the multiyear study, The Long Island National Wildlife Refuge Complex (Complex) Environmental...

  20. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  1. A Model for Environmental Impact Assessment of Land Reclamation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GUO Wei; LI Shu-heng; MAO Liang; YIN Yong; ZHU Da-kui

    2007-01-01

    Land reclamation is a complex marine environmental engineering and has a huge impact on social, economic, and physical environment. Reclamation environmental impact assessment (REIA) is also a complicated project, including the assessment of social economic background, ocean engineering, coastal geomorphology, sediment transportation, marine hydrodynamics and marine ecosystem and so on. Nowadays, a large number of land reclaimed projects have been carried out or in the process of construction along the coastal zone, thus, it is necessary to build up a framework on REIA to evaluate and quantify the environmental changes, to contribute to reclamation program, to reduce marine environmental disasters, and to sustain development of coastal zone. This article focuses on the research of REIA framework theory and puts forward a REIA model on land reclaimed evaluation, at the same time, applies this assessment system in Shenzhen City, which is a highly developed coastal city with an expectation of land reclamation. By use of the Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, along with the topographic map and in situ survey in reclamation area, it concludes that the area of 2680 hectares in total has been reclaimed in Shenzhen city by the end of the year 2000. Thus, reclamation is usually applied to meet the needs for infrastructure, such as harbors, industries and highways in Shenzhen City. However, some serious negative impacts have been created to the coastal environment shown clearly in the following aspects. Firstly, it caused the dramatic changes of tidal flat and channels along the western coast, made this area more unstable, which is threatening the function of the harbor in this area. Secondly, Tidal prism has decreased rapidly. During the 20 years of reclamation, the tidal prism has been reduced by 20%~30% along the western coast in the Lingdingyang Estuary, and 15.6% in the Shenzhen Bay. As a result, the velocity of the tidal current

  2. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center--providing comprehensive earth science for complex societal issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, David G.; Wallace, Alan R.; Schneider, Jill L.

    2010-01-01

    Minerals in the environment and products manufactured from mineral materials are all around us and we use and come into contact with them every day. They impact our way of life and the health of all that lives. Minerals are critical to the Nation's economy and knowing where future mineral resources will come from is important for sustaining the Nation's economy and national security. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP) provides scientific information for objective resource assessments and unbiased research results on mineral resource potential, production and consumption statistics, as well as environmental consequences of mining. The MRP conducts this research to provide information needed for land planners and decisionmakers about where mineral commodities are known and suspected in the earth's crust and about the environmental consequences of extracting those commodities. As part of the MRP scientists of the Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center (WMERSC or 'Center' herein) coordinate the development of national, geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-resource databases and the migration of existing databases to standard models and formats that are available to both internal and external users. The unique expertise developed by Center scientists over many decades in response to mineral-resource-related issues is now in great demand to support applications such as public health research and remediation of environmental hazards that result from mining and mining-related activities. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center Results of WMERSC research provide timely and unbiased analyses of minerals and inorganic materials to (1) improve stewardship of public lands and resources; (2) support national and international economic and security policies; (3) sustain prosperity and improve our quality of life; and (4) protect and improve public health, safety, and environmental quality. The MRP

  3. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelly, Rebecca A.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; El-Sawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jorgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; Delden, van Hedwig; Voinov, Alexey A.

    2013-01-01

    The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a uni

  4. Crash Frequency Modeling Using Real-Time Environmental and Traffic Data and Unbalanced Panel Data Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2016-06-18

    Traffic and environmental conditions (e.g., weather conditions), which frequently change with time, have a significant impact on crash occurrence. Traditional crash frequency models with large temporal scales and aggregated variables are not sufficient to capture the time-varying nature of driving environmental factors, causing significant loss of critical information on crash frequency modeling. This paper aims at developing crash frequency models with refined temporal scales for complex driving environments, with such an effort providing more detailed and accurate crash risk information which can allow for more effective and proactive traffic management and law enforcement intervention. Zero-inflated, negative binomial (ZINB) models with site-specific random effects are developed with unbalanced panel data to analyze hourly crash frequency on highway segments. The real-time driving environment information, including traffic, weather and road surface condition data, sourced primarily from the Road Weather Information System, is incorporated into the models along with site-specific road characteristics. The estimation results of unbalanced panel data ZINB models suggest there are a number of factors influencing crash frequency, including time-varying factors (e.g., visibility and hourly traffic volume) and site-varying factors (e.g., speed limit). The study confirms the unique significance of the real-time weather, road surface condition and traffic data to crash frequency modeling.

  5. Effect of environmental factors on the complexation of iron and humic acid

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kai Fang; Dongxing Yuan; Lei Zhang; Lifeng Feng; Yaojin Chen; Yuzhou Wang

    2015-01-01

    A method of size exclusion chromatography coupled with ultraviolet spectrophotometry and off-line graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry was developed to assess the complexation properties of iron (Fe) and humic acid (HA) in a water environment.The factors affecting the complexation of Fe and HA,such as ionic strength,pH,temperature and UV radiation,were investigated.The Fe-HA complex residence time was also studied.Experimental results showed that pH could influence the deprotonation of HA and hydrolysis of Fe,and thus affected the complexation of Fe and HA.The complexation was greatly disrupted by the presence of NaCl.Temperature had some influence on the complexation.The yield of Fe-HA complexes showed a small decrease at high levels of UV radiation,but the effect of UV radiation on Fe-HA complex formation at natural levels could be neglected.It took about 10 hr for the complexation to reach equilibrium,and the Fe-HA complex residence time was about 20 hr.Complexation of Fe and HA reached a maximum level under the conditions of pH 6,very low ionic strength,in the dark and at a water temperature of about 25℃,for 10 hr.It was suggested that the Fe-HA complex could form mainly in freshwater bodies and reach high levels in the warm season with mild sunlight radiation.With changing environmental parameters,such as at lower temperature in winter or higher pH and ionic strength in an estuary,the concentration of the Fe-HA complex would decrease.

  6. Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and oil and natural gas operations: Potential environmental contamination and recommendations to assess complex environmental mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassotis, Christopher D.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A.; Nagel, Susan C.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. While these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals.Objectives: We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and anti-hormonal activities for chemicals used.Methods: We discuss the literature on 1) surface and ground water contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and 2) potential human exposure, particularly in context of the total hormonal and anti-hormonal activities present in surface and ground water from natural and anthropogenic sources, with initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps discussed.Discussion: In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures.Conclusions: We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide supporting information that using this may help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

  7. The application of DEA model in enterprise environmental performance auditing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zhu, L. Y.; Zhang, J. D.; Liu, C. Y.; Qu, Z. G.; Xiao, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    As a part of society, enterprises have an inescapable responsibility for environmental protection and governance. This article discusses the feasibility and necessity of enterprises environmental performance auditing and uses DEA model calculate the environmental performance of Haier for example. The most of reference data are selected and sorted from Haier’s environmental reportspublished in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2015, and some of the data from some published articles and fieldwork. All the calculation results are calculated by DEAP software andhave a high credibility. The analysis results of this article can give corporate managements an idea about using environmental performance auditing to adjust their corporate environmental investments capital quota and change their company’s environmental strategies.

  8. Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao WANG; Fanghua HAO; Xuan ZHANG; Wen SUN; Hongguang CHENG

    2008-01-01

    Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of envir-onmental management studies. Severe gas H2S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor under-standing and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H2S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan "Pu Guang gas field" as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up tech-nique of puffs to simulate the H2S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H2S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind dir-ection, and due to the obstruction of the mountain's body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing con-dition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H2S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.

  9. Complex Modeling - SAHG | LSDB Archive [Life Science Database Archive metadata

    Lifescience Database Archive (English)

    Full Text Available List Contact us SAHG Complex Modeling Data detail Data name Complex Modeling DOI 10.18908/lsdba.nbdc01193-00...3 Description of data contents Protein-protein copmlex modeling predition Data file File name: sahg_complex....zip File URL: ftp://ftp.biosciencedbc.jp/archive/sahg/LATEST/sahg_complex.zip File size: 147 KB Simple searc...h URL http://togodb.biosciencedbc.jp/togodb/view/sahg_complex#en Data acquisition... method If a target sequence was related to a given subunit of a template complex in PQS database with >=80%

  10. Modeling competitive substitution in a polyelectrolyte complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, B.; Muthukumar, M., E-mail: muthu@polysci.umass.edu [Department of Polymer Science and Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States)

    2015-12-28

    We have simulated the invasion of a polyelectrolyte complex made of a polycation chain and a polyanion chain, by another longer polyanion chain, using the coarse-grained united atom model for the chains and the Langevin dynamics methodology. Our simulations reveal many intricate details of the substitution reaction in terms of conformational changes of the chains and competition between the invading chain and the chain being displaced for the common complementary chain. We show that the invading chain is required to be sufficiently longer than the chain being displaced for effecting the substitution. Yet, having the invading chain to be longer than a certain threshold value does not reduce the substitution time much further. While most of the simulations were carried out in salt-free conditions, we show that presence of salt facilitates the substitution reaction and reduces the substitution time. Analysis of our data shows that the dominant driving force for the substitution process involving polyelectrolytes lies in the release of counterions during the substitution.

  11. Complex networks repair strategies: Dynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Chaoqi; Wang, Ying; Gao, Yangjun; Wang, Xiaoyang

    2017-09-01

    Network repair strategies are tactical methods that restore the efficiency of damaged networks; however, unreasonable repair strategies not only waste resources, they are also ineffective for network recovery. Most extant research on network repair focuses on static networks, but results and findings on static networks cannot be applied to evolutionary dynamic networks because, in dynamic models, complex network repair has completely different characteristics. For instance, repaired nodes face more severe challenges, and require strategic repair methods in order to have a significant effect. In this study, we propose the Shell Repair Strategy (SRS) to minimize the risk of secondary node failures due to the cascading effect. Our proposed method includes the identification of a set of vital nodes that have a significant impact on network repair and defense. Our identification of these vital nodes reduces the number of switching nodes that face the risk of secondary failures during the dynamic repair process. This is positively correlated with the size of the average degree and enhances network invulnerability.

  12. Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

    2013-04-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

  13. Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

    2017-07-01

    Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

  14. [Isolation of Sporothrix pallida complex in clinical and environmental samples from Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz Choappa, Rodrigo M; Vieille Oyarzo, Peggy I; Carvajal Silva, Laura C

    2014-01-01

    The isolation of S. pallida complex from medical samples and home garden soil of a patient in Chile is here in reported. Fungi of the Sporothrix schenckii complex can cause various infections. In Chile, the medical and environmental isolates of these this complex are rare. The aim of this study was to identify an unusual agent in a case of onychomycosis and to detect its presence in the patient's home garden. For this purpose, clinical samples were obtained by scraping the patient's subungueal first right toe nail as well as by taking soil samples from different areas of her home garden. Species identification was performed by morphophysiology and one of the strains isolated from the patient's toe nail was sent to CBS for molecular confirmation (14.062). S. pallida complex was identified both from the patient's toe nail and samples taken from her home garden.

  15. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

  16. Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

    2015-01-01

    In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

  17. Application of Health Promotion Theories and Models for Environmental Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Edith A.; Baldwin, Grant T.; Israel, Barbara; Salinas, Maria A.

    2004-01-01

    The field of environmental health promotion gained new prominence in recent years as awareness of physical environmental stressors and exposures increased in communities across the country and the world. Although many theories and conceptual models are used routinely to guide health promotion and health education interventions, they are rarely…

  18. The animal sensorimotor organization: a challenge for the environmental complexity thesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keijzer, Fred; Arnellos, Argyris

    2017-01-01

    Godfrey-Smith's environmental complexity thesis (ECT) is most often applied to multicellular animals and the complexity of their macroscopic environments to explain how cognition evolved. We think that the ECT may be less suited to explain the origins of the animal bodily organization, including this organization's potentiality for dealing with complex macroscopic environments. We argue that acquiring the fundamental sensorimotor features of the animal body may be better explained as a consequence of dealing with internal bodily-rather than environmental complexity. To press and elucidate this option, we develop the notion of an animal sensorimotor organization (ASMO) that derives from an internal coordination account for the evolution of early nervous systems. The ASMO notion is a reply to the question how a collection of single cells can become integrated such that the resulting multicellular organization becomes sensitive to and can manipulate macroscopic features of both the animal body and its environment. In this account, epithelial contractile tissues play the central role in the organization behind complex animal bodies. In this paper, we relate the ASMO concept to recent work on epithelia, which provides empirical evidence that supports central assumptions behind the ASMO notion. Second, we discuss to what extent the notion applies to basic animal architectures, exemplified by sponges and jellyfish. We conclude that the features exhibited by the ASMO are plausibly explained by internal constraints acting on and within this multicellular organization, providing a challenge for the role the ECT plays in this context.

  19. Modelling land use change and environmental impact

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, A.; Verburg, P.H.

    2004-01-01

    Land use change models are tools for understanding and explaining the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Recently, new models, combining knowledge and tools from biophysical and socio-economic sciences, have become available. This has resulted in spatially explicit models focussed on patt

  20. Modeling Complex Chemical Systems: Problems and Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Jan

    2016-09-01

    Non-equilibrium plasmas in complex gas mixtures are at the heart of numerous contemporary technologies. They typically contain dozens to hundreds of species, involved in hundreds to thousands of reactions. Chemists and physicists have always been interested in what are now called chemical reduction techniques (CRT's). The idea of such CRT's is that they reduce the number of species that need to be considered explicitly without compromising the validity of the model. This is usually achieved on the basis of an analysis of the reaction time scales of the system under study, which identifies species that are in partial equilibrium after a given time span. The first such CRT that has been widely used in plasma physics was developed in the 1960's and resulted in the concept of effective ionization and recombination rates. It was later generalized to systems in which multiple levels are effected by transport. In recent years there has been a renewed interest in tools for chemical reduction and reaction pathway analysis. An example of the latter is the PumpKin tool. Another trend is that techniques that have previously been developed in other fields of science are adapted as to be able to handle the plasma state of matter. Examples are the Intrinsic Low Dimension Manifold (ILDM) method and its derivatives, which originate from combustion engineering, and the general-purpose Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. In this contribution we will provide an overview of the most common reduction techniques, then critically assess the pros and cons of the methods that have gained most popularity in recent years. Examples will be provided for plasmas in argon and carbon dioxide.

  1. Environmental sustainability modeling with exergy methodology for building life cycle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘猛; 姚润明

    2009-01-01

    As an important human activity,the building industry has created comfortable space for living and work,and at the same time brought considerable pollution and huge consumption of energy and recourses. From 1990s after the first building environmental assessment model-BREEAM was released in the UK,a number of assessment models were formulated as analytical and practical in methodology respectively. This paper aims to introduce a generic model of exergy assessment on environmental impact of building life cycle,taking into consideration of previous models and focusing on natural environment as well as building life cycle,and three environmental impacts will be analyzed,namely energy embodied exergy,resource chemical exergy and abatement exergy on energy consumption,resource consumption and pollutant discharge respectively. The model of exergy assessment on environmental impact of building life cycle thus formulated contains two sub-models,one from the aspect of building energy utilization,and the other from building materials use. Combining theories by ecologists such as Odum,building environmental sustainability modeling with exergy methodology is put forward with the index of exergy footprint of building environmental impacts.

  2. Modeling crop responses to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    1993-01-01

    Potential biophysical responses of crops to climate change are studied focusing on the primary environmental variables which define the limits to agricultural crop growth and production, and the principal methods for predicting climate change impacts on crop geography and production. It is concluded that the principal uncertainties in the prediction of the impacts of climate change on agriculture reside in the contribution of the direct effects of increasing CO2, in potential changes inclimate variability, and the effects of adjustments mechanisms in the context of climatic changes.

  3. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  4. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  5. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  6. Clinical complexity in medicine: A measurement model of task and patient complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, R.; Weir, C.; Fiol, G. Del

    2016-01-01

    Summary Background Complexity in medicine needs to be reduced to simple components in a way that is comprehensible to researchers and clinicians. Few studies in the current literature propose a measurement model that addresses both task and patient complexity in medicine. Objective The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to understand and measure clinical complexity by incorporating both task and patient complexity components focusing on infectious disease domain. The measurement model was adapted and modified to healthcare domain. Methods Three clinical Infectious Disease teams were observed, audio-recorded and transcribed. Each team included an Infectious Diseases expert, one Infectious Diseases fellow, one physician assistant and one pharmacy resident fellow. The transcripts were parsed and the authors independently coded complexity attributes. This baseline measurement model of clinical complexity was modified in an initial set of coding process and further validated in a consensus-based iterative process that included several meetings and email discussions by three clinical experts from diverse backgrounds from the Department of Biomedical Informatics at the University of Utah. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen’s kappa. Results The proposed clinical complexity model consists of two separate components. The first is a clinical task complexity model with 13 clinical complexity-contributing factors and 7 dimensions. The second is the patient complexity model with 11 complexity-contributing factors and 5 dimensions. Conclusion The measurement model for complexity encompassing both task and patient complexity will be a valuable resource for future researchers and industry to measure and understand complexity in healthcare. PMID:26404626

  7. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler D; Huffnagle, Ian M; Besser, John M; Ingersoll, Christopher G

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  8. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Rudel

    Full Text Available Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water, we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  9. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler; Huffnagle, Ian; Besser, John M.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegansand P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  10. A checklist for quality assistance in environmental modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risbey, James S.; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Ravetz, Jerome R.; Janssen, P.

    2006-01-01

    The goal of this checklist is to assist in the quality control process for environmental modelling. The point of the checklist is not that a model can be classified as 'good' or 'bad', but that there are 'better' and 'worse' forms of modelling practice. We believe that one should guard against poor

  11. An Exploratory Investigation on the Invasiveness of Environmental Modeling Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper provides initial results of an exploratory investigation on the invasiveness of environmental modeling frameworks. Invasiveness is defined as the coupling between application (i.e., model) and framework code used to implement the model. By comparing the implementation of an environmenta...

  12. EcoMark: Evaluating Models of Vehicular Environmental Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Chenjuan; Ma, Mike; Yang, Bin

    2012-01-01

    the vehicle travels in. We develop an evaluation framework, called EcoMark, for such environmental impact models. In addition, we survey all eleven state-of-the-art impact models known to us. To gain insight into the capabilities of the models and to understand the effectiveness of the EcoMark, we apply...

  13. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  14. A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

  15. Mixed Effects Models for Complex Data

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Lang

    2009-01-01

    Presenting effective approaches to address missing data, measurement errors, censoring, and outliers in longitudinal data, this book covers linear, nonlinear, generalized linear, nonparametric, and semiparametric mixed effects models. It links each mixed effects model with the corresponding class of regression model for cross-sectional data and discusses computational strategies for likelihood estimations of mixed effects models. The author briefly describes generalized estimating equations methods and Bayesian mixed effects models and explains how to implement standard models using R and S-Pl

  16. Environmental Screening for the Scedosporium apiospermum Species Complex in Public Parks in Bangkok, Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luplertlop, Natthanej; Pumeesat, Potjaman; Muangkaew, Watcharamat; Wongsuk, Thanwa; Alastruey-Izquierdo, Ana

    2016-01-01

    The Scedosporium apiospermum species complex, comprising filamentous fungal species S. apiospermum sensu stricto, S. boydii, S. aurantiacum, S. dehoogii and S. minutispora, are important pathogens that cause a wide variety of infections. Although some species (S. boydii and S. apiospermum) have been isolated from patients in Thailand, no environmental surveys of these fungi have been performed in Thailand or surrounding countries. In this study, we isolated and identified species of these fungi from 68 soil and 16 water samples randomly collected from 10 parks in Bangkok. After filtration and subsequent inoculation of samples on Scedo-Select III medium, colony morphological examinations and microscopic observations were performed. Scedosporium species were isolated from soil in 8 of the 10 parks, but were only detected in one water sample. Colony morphologies of isolates from 41 of 68 soil samples (60.29%) and 1 of 15 water samples (6.67%) were consistent with that of the S. apiospermum species complex. Each morphological type was selected for species identification based on DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the β-tubulin gene. Three species of the S. apiospermum species complex were identified: S. apiospermum (71 isolates), S. aurantiacum (6 isolates) and S. dehoogii (5 isolates). In addition, 16 sequences could not be assigned to an exact Scedosporium species. According to our environmental survey, the S. apiospermum species complex is widespread in soil in Bangkok, Thailand.

  17. Developing Seventh Grade Students' Understanding of Complex Environmental Problems with Systems Tools and Representations: a Quasi-experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doganca Kucuk, Zerrin; Saysel, Ali Kerem

    2017-03-01

    A systems-based classroom intervention on environmental education was designed for seventh grade students; the results were evaluated to see its impact on the development of systems thinking skills and standard science achievement and whether the systems approach is a more effective way to teach environmental issues that are dynamic and complex. A quasi-experimental methodology was used to compare performances of the participants in various dimensions, including systems thinking skills, competence in dynamic environmental problem solving and success in science achievement tests. The same pre-, post- and delayed tests were used with both the comparison and experimental groups in the same public middle school in Istanbul. Classroom activities designed for the comparison group (N = 20) followed the directives of the Science and Technology Curriculum, while the experimental group (N = 22) covered the same subject matter through activities benefiting from systems tools and representations such as behaviour over time graphs, causal loop diagrams, stock-flow structures and hands-on dynamic modelling. After a one-month systems-based instruction, the experimental group demonstrated significantly better systems thinking and dynamic environmental problem solving skills. Achievement in dynamic problem solving was found to be relatively stable over time. However, standard science achievement did not improve at all. This paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the results, the weaknesses of the curriculum and educational implications.

  18. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  19. Modelling microbial metabolic rewiring during growth in a complex medium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fondi, Marco; Bosi, Emanuele; Presta, Luana; Natoli, Diletta; Fani, Renato

    2016-11-24

    In their natural environment, bacteria face a wide range of environmental conditions that change over time and that impose continuous rearrangements at all the cellular levels (e.g. gene expression, metabolism). When facing a nutritionally rich environment, for example, microbes first use the preferred compound(s) and only later start metabolizing the other one(s). A systemic re-organization of the overall microbial metabolic network in response to a variation in the composition/concentration of the surrounding nutrients has been suggested, although the range and the entity of such modifications in organisms other than a few model microbes has been scarcely described up to now. We used multi-step constraint-based metabolic modelling to simulate the growth in a complex medium over several time steps of the Antarctic model organism Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis TAC125. As each of these phases is characterized by a specific set of amino acids to be used as carbon and energy source our modelling framework describes the major consequences of nutrients switching at the system level. The model predicts that a deep metabolic reprogramming might be required to achieve optimal biomass production in different stages of growth (different medium composition), with at least half of the cellular metabolic network involved (more than 50% of the metabolic genes). Additionally, we show that our modelling framework is able to capture metabolic functional association and/or common regulatory features of the genes embedded in our reconstruction (e.g. the presence of common regulatory motifs). Finally, to explore the possibility of a sub-optimal biomass objective function (i.e. that cells use resources in alternative metabolic processes at the expense of optimal growth) we have implemented a MOMA-based approach (called nutritional-MOMA) and compared the outcomes with those obtained with Flux Balance Analysis (FBA). Growth simulations under this scenario revealed the deep impact of

  20. A Measure of Learning Model Complexity by VC Dimension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Wen-jian; ZHANG Li-xia; XU Zong-ben

    2002-01-01

    When developing models there is always a trade-off between model complexity and model fit. In this paper, a measure of learning model complexity based on VC dimension is presented, and some relevant mathematical theory surrounding the derivation and use of this metric is summarized. The measure allows modelers to control the amount of error that is returned from a modeling system and to state upper bounds on the amount of error that the modeling system will return on all future, as yet unseen and uncollected data sets. It is possible for modelers to use the VC theory to determine which type of model more accurately represents a system.

  1. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  2. Calibration and verification of environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S. S.; Sengupta, S.; Weinberg, N.; Hiser, H.

    1976-01-01

    The problems of calibration and verification of mesoscale models used for investigating power plant discharges are considered. The value of remote sensors for data acquisition is discussed as well as an investigation of Biscayne Bay in southern Florida.

  3. Statistical modeling of space shuttle environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tubbs, J. D.; Brewer, D. W.

    1983-01-01

    Statistical models which use a class of bivariate gamma distribution are examined. Topics discussed include: (1) the ratio of positively correlated gamma varieties; (2) a method to determine if unequal shape parameters are necessary in bivariate gamma distribution; (3) differential equations for modal location of a family of bivariate gamma distribution; and (4) analysis of some wind gust data using the analytical results developed for modeling application.

  4. Multi-perspective modelling of complex phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seck, M.D.; Honig, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    This conceptual paper discusses the limitations of a single-perspective hierarchical approach to modelling and proposes multi-perspective modelling as a way to overcome them. As it turns out, multi-perspective modelling is primarily a new methodology, using existing modelling techniques but

  5. Working Group Reports: Working Group 1 - Software Systems Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) is to foster the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases that are all in the public domain. It is compos...

  6. Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

    2017-12-01

    Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

  7. Environmental Statement on the Tactical Fighter Weapons Center (TFWC) Range Complex, Nellis Air Force Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-03-10

    bayonet 52. Yucca brevifolia Joshua tree 53. Yucca schidigera Mojave yucca A- 31 APPENDIX B ECOSYSTEM MODELING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT This...species are among those which characterize these communities: Cheosote bush, Blackbush, Bursage, Box thorn, Joshua tree, Mojave yucca , Spanish bayonet... Yucca Night Lizard 17. Eumeces skiltonianus Western Skink 18. Eumeces gilberti rubricaudatus Gilbert’s Skink 19. Cnemidophorus tigris tigris Whip

  8. Complex systems modeling by cellular automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroc, J.; Sloot, P.M.A.; Rabuñal Dopico, J.R.; Dorado de la Calle, J.; Pazos Sierra, A.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the notion of complex systems proved to be a very useful concept to define, describe, and study various natural phenomena observed in a vast number of scientific disciplines. Examples of scientific disciplines that highly benefit from this concept range from physics, mathematics, an

  9. Development of a site specific environmental radiation assessment model for Youngkwang NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Yang Geun; Song, Myung Jae; Shon, Soon Hwan; Shin, Sang Woon; Lee, Gap Bock; Yang, Kyung Hwa [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seong Pyung; Kim, Jeong Kyu; Shin, Dae Yoon; Kim, Hyun Ku; Lee, Kyung Jin [Chosun University, Kwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-12-31

    During the normal operation of nuclear power plants, a very small amount of radionuclide materials is released to the environment. The radionuclide releases to the environment may give rise to some additional radiation dose through a number of pathways. With a few exception, radionuclide transports are highly dependent on the environmental conditions such as topological features, atmospheric and oceanic conditions and socio-environmental characteristics, etc. The dose calculation in Korea are presently being performed using the models in US NRC Reg. Guide. However, these models which were originally released by the US NRC in 1977 are inadequate to deal with environmental movement of radionuclides in consideration of complex terrain, tidal condition of the Yellow Sea, and Youngkwang site specific conditions. KEPRI has developed the models to consider the site specific characteristics around Youngkwang NPPs, to give the realistic dose assessment, and to improve assurance and reliability in public dose calculation. (author). 41 figs., 70 refs.

  10. The utility of Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.

    2010-01-01

    Intermediate-complexity models are models which describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and/or ocean in less detail than conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs). At the same time, they go beyond the approach taken by atmospheric Energy Balance Models (EBMs) or ocean box models by

  11. Efficient Calibration/Uncertainty Analysis Using Paired Complex/Surrogate Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrows, Wesley; Doherty, John

    2015-01-01

    The use of detailed groundwater models to simulate complex environmental processes can be hampered by (1) long run-times and (2) a penchant for solution convergence problems. Collectively, these can undermine the ability of a modeler to reduce and quantify predictive uncertainty, and therefore limit the use of such detailed models in the decision-making context. We explain and demonstrate a novel approach to calibration and the exploration of posterior predictive uncertainty, of a complex model, that can overcome these problems in many modelling contexts. The methodology relies on conjunctive use of a simplified surrogate version of the complex model in combination with the complex model itself. The methodology employs gradient-based subspace analysis and is thus readily adapted for use in highly parameterized contexts. In its most basic form, one or more surrogate models are used for calculation of the partial derivatives that collectively comprise the Jacobian matrix. Meanwhile, testing of parameter upgrades and the making of predictions is done by the original complex model. The methodology is demonstrated using a density-dependent seawater intrusion model in which the model domain is characterized by a heterogeneous distribution of hydraulic conductivity.

  12. Modeling market equilibrium for transboundary environmental problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kryazhimskii, A.; Nentjes, A.; Shybaiev, S; Tarasyev, A.

    2001-01-01

    We model the international negotiations on acid deposition reduction in Europe as a multiplayer non-cooperative normal form game. The equilibrium combining the properties of Nash equilibria and Pareto-optimal outcomes, is studied. We prove its existence and investigate a dynamic combined best reply-

  13. A STOCHASTIC GROWTH MODEL WITH ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xueqing ZHANG; Shigeng HU; Haijun WANG

    2006-01-01

    Pollution is introduced into the utility function and the productive function in this paper.Under appropriate macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, this paper proves that the equilibrium levels of the main economic indexes are uniquely determined by the model parameters. This paper establishes the following alternative theorem: some factors affect the economic growth and the welfare in opposite way.

  14. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  15. Innovative development of the building complex on the basis of environmental and energy-efficient technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kireeva Ekaterina E.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the current study was to determine the priorities of innovative development of the building complex on the basis of the analysis of the environmental and energy-efficient technologies that were applied. Analysis of energy efficiency and environmental technologies in the construction industry showed that residential housing consumes 23% of the total primary energy supply in Russia. The construction sector is responsible for 30% of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Russia annually spends approximately 170 million tons of fuel equivalents for heating, ventilation and air conditioning of residential housing. Comparing Russia with the countries of similar climatic conditions it should be noted that energy consumption value in Russia is significantly higher (the excess ranges from 24 to 47% depending upon the building. Having analyzed the housing the authors offer the ways of building complex innovative development that mean the following: reindustrialization of material and technical resources of construction companies and the introduction of managerial innovations; the development and application of new high-tech building structures, products and materials that are to ensure the economic and environmental efficiency of buildings’ construction and operation.

  16. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  17. The Cognitive Complexity in Modelling the Group Decision Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barna Iantovics

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates for some basic contextual factors (such
    us the problem complexity, the users' creativity and the problem space complexity the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the group decision processes (GDP in e-meetings. The analysis is done by conducting a socio-simulation experiment for an envisioned collaborative software tool that acts as a stigmergic environment for modelling the GDP. The simulation results revels some interesting design guidelines for engineering some contextual functionalities that minimize the cognitive complexity associated with modelling the GDP.

  18. Validation of HEDR models. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.

    1994-05-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid.

  19. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  20. Economic damage caused by consequences of the environmental impact of mining complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Veniaminovich Kosolapov

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews issues of environmental consequences and its related economic and social consequences at field development. The need of allocation and classification of ecological zones for functioning of mining complex is proved. Methodical recommendations of the forecast of consequences of environmental impact of mining complexes within these zones are submitted. Basic methodological provisions of the economic damage estimation caused by consequences of impact on the environment of mining complex, providing appraisal of damage, calculation of the economic damage forming in the conditions of influences of evolutionary and catastrophic character, and the priority of factors of impact are formulated. Methodology and appropriate algorithm of the economic damage assessment caused by extraction of mineral resources and pollution (damage of the environment within projected ecological zones making negative effect on material values, natural resources and the population are offered. The forecast and assessment of arising consequences at developing mineral deposits are crucial stages in taking management decisions concerning development of mineral resources of a region.

  1. Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ISCMEM Working Group One Presentation, presentation with the purpose of fostering the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases.

  2. Fast identification of microplastics in complex environmental samples by a thermal degradation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dümichen, Erik; Eisentraut, Paul; Bannick, Claus Gerhard; Barthel, Anne-Kathrin; Senz, Rainer; Braun, Ulrike

    2017-05-01

    In order to determine the relevance of microplastic particles in various environmental media, comprehensive investigations are needed. However, no analytical method exists for fast identification and quantification. At present, optical spectroscopy methods like IR and RAMAN imaging are used. Due to their time consuming procedures and uncertain extrapolation, reliable monitoring is difficult. For analyzing polymers Py-GC-MS is a standard method. However, due to a limited sample amount of about 0.5 mg it is not suited for analysis of complex sample mixtures like environmental samples. Therefore, we developed a new thermoanalytical method as a first step for identifying microplastics in environmental samples. A sample amount of about 20 mg, which assures the homogeneity of the sample, is subjected to complete thermal decomposition. The specific degradation products of the respective polymer are adsorbed on a solid-phase adsorber and subsequently analyzed by thermal desorption gas chromatography mass spectrometry. For certain identification, the specific degradation products for the respective polymer were selected first. Afterwards real environmental samples from the aquatic (three different rivers) and the terrestrial (bio gas plant) systems were screened for microplastics. Mainly polypropylene (PP), polyethylene (PE) and polystyrene (PS) were identified for the samples from the bio gas plant and PE and PS from the rivers. However, this was only the first step and quantification measurements will follow.

  3. Widespread Environmental Contamination with Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex Revealed by a Molecular Detection Protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Nuno; Santos, Catarina; Valente, Teresa; Gortázar, Christian; Almeida, Virgílio; Correia-Neves, Margarida

    2015-01-01

    Environmental contamination with Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) has been considered crucial for bovine tuberculosis persistence in multi-host-pathogen systems. However, MTC contamination has been difficult to detect due to methodological issues. In an attempt to overcome this limitation we developed an improved protocol for the detection of MTC DNA. MTC DNA concentration was estimated by the Most Probable Number (MPN) method. Making use of this protocol we showed that MTC contamination is widespread in different types of environmental samples from the Iberian Peninsula, which supports indirect transmission as a contributing mechanism for the maintenance of bovine tuberculosis in this multi-host-pathogen system. The proportion of MTC DNA positive samples was higher in the bovine tuberculosis-infected than in presumed negative area (0.32 and 0.18, respectively). Detection varied with the type of environmental sample and was more frequent in sediment from dams and less frequent in water also from dams (0.22 and 0.05, respectively). The proportion of MTC-positive samples was significantly higher in spring (p<0.001), but MTC DNA concentration per sample was higher in autumn and lower in summer. The average MTC DNA concentration in positive samples was 0.82 MPN/g (CI95 0.70-0.98 MPN/g). We were further able to amplify a DNA sequence specific of Mycobacterium bovis/caprae in 4 environmental samples from the bTB-infected area.

  4. Modelling Complex Inlet Geometries in CFD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovgaard, M.; Nielsen, Peter V.

    Modem inlet devices applied in the field of ventilation of rooms are getting more complex in terms of geometry in order to fulfil the occupants' demand for thermal comfort in the room and in order to decrease the energy consumption. This expresses the need for a more precise calculation of the fl...... and tested. The method is based upon threedimensional - and radial wall jet theory and upon diffuser specific experimental data....

  5. Modeling Electronic Properties of Complex Oxides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnaswamy, Karthik

    Complex oxides are a class of materials that have recently emerged as potential candidates for electronic applications owing to their interesting electronic properties. The goal of this dissertation is to develop a fundamental understanding of these electronic properties using a combination of first-principles approaches based on density functional theory (DFT), and Schr odinger-Poisson (SP) simulation (Abstract shortened by ProQuest.

  6. Linking Complexity and Sustainability Theories: Implications for Modeling Sustainability Transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camaren Peter

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we deploy a complexity theory as the foundation for integration of different theoretical approaches to sustainability and develop a rationale for a complexity-based framework for modeling transitions to sustainability. We propose a framework based on a comparison of complex systems’ properties that characterize the different theories that deal with transitions to sustainability. We argue that adopting a complexity theory based approach for modeling transitions requires going beyond deterministic frameworks; by adopting a probabilistic, integrative, inclusive and adaptive approach that can support transitions. We also illustrate how this complexity-based modeling framework can be implemented; i.e., how it can be used to select modeling techniques that address particular properties of complex systems that we need to understand in order to model transitions to sustainability. In doing so, we establish a complexity-based approach towards modeling sustainability transitions that caters for the broad range of complex systems’ properties that are required to model transitions to sustainability.

  7. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors.

  8. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment.

  9. Complex Systems and Human Performance Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    constitute a cognitive architecture or decomposing the work flows and resource constraints that characterize human-system interactions, the modeler...also explored the generation of so-called “ fractal ” series from simple task network models where task times are the calculated by way of a moving

  10. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2017-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability and being able to deal with case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in

  11. 'spup' - an R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard

    2016-04-01

    Computer models have become a crucial tool in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex static and dynamic systems. However, while many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Currently, advances in uncertainty propagation and assessment have been paralleled by a growing number of software tools for uncertainty analysis, but none has gained recognition for a universal applicability, including case studies with spatial models and spatial model inputs. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source R programming language we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. In particular, the 'spup' package provides functions for examining the uncertainty propagation starting from input data and model parameters, via the environmental model onto model predictions. The functions include uncertainty model specification, stochastic simulation and propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo (MC) techniques, as well as several uncertainty visualization functions. Uncertain environmental variables are represented in the package as objects whose attribute values may be uncertain and described by probability distributions. Both numerical and categorical data types are handled. Spatial auto-correlation within an attribute and cross-correlation between attributes is also accommodated for. For uncertainty propagation the package has implemented the MC approach with efficient sampling algorithms, i.e. stratified random sampling and Latin hypercube sampling. The design includes facilitation of parallel computing to speed up MC computation. The MC realizations may be used as an input to the environmental models called from R, or externally. Selected static and interactive visualization methods that are understandable by non-experts with limited background in

  12. A robust and flexible Geospatial Modeling Interface (GMI) for environmental model deployment and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper provides an overview of the GMI (Geospatial Modeling Interface) simulation framework for environmental model deployment and assessment. GMI currently provides access to multiple environmental models including AgroEcoSystem-Watershed (AgES-W), Nitrate Leaching and Economic Analysis 2 (NLEA...

  13. An Environmental Management Model of Thermal Waters in Entre Ríos Province, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pablo, Mársico Daniel; Luís, Díaz Eduardo; Ivana, Zecca; Oscar, Dallacosta; Antonio, Paz-González

    2015-04-01

    Deep exploratory drillings, i.e. those with more than 500 meters depth, have been performed in the Entre Ríos province, Argentina, in order to ascertain the presence of thermal water. Drilling began in 1994, and until now there have been 18 polls with very variable results in terms of mineralization, resource flow, and temperature. The aim of this study was to present a management model, which should allow operators of thermal complexes to further develop procedures for safeguarding the biodiversity of the ecosystems involved, both during exploration and exploitation activities. The environmental management Plan proposed is constituted by a set of technical procedures that are formulated and should be performed during the stages of exploration and exploitation of the resource, and consists of: environmental monitoring, environmental audit, public information and contingency programs. This Plan describes the measures and proposals aimed at protecting environmental quality in the area of influence of a thermal complex project, ensuring that its execution remains environmentally responsibly, and allowing implementation of specific actions to prevent or correct environmental impacts, as predicted in the evaluation of the Environmental Program. The audit of environmental impact includes and takes into account natural factors, such as water, soil, atmosphere, flora and fauna, and also cultural factors. The technical audit Plan was prepared in order to get a systematic structure and organization of the verification process, and also with regard to document the degree of implementation of the proposed mitigation measures. Finally, an environmental contingency program was implemented, and its objective was to consider the safeguarding of life and its natural environment. Thus, a guide has been developed with the main actions to be taken on a contingency, since forecast increases the efficiency of the response. The methodology developed here was adopted as the procedure

  14. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  15. Discrete-element modelling and smoothed particle hydrodynamics: potential in the environmental sciences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleary, Paul W; Prakash, Mahesh

    2004-09-15

    Particle-based simulation methods, such as the discrete-element method and smoothed particle hydrodynamics, have specific advantages in modelling complex three-dimensional (3D) environmental fluid and particulate flows. The theory of both these methods and their relative advantages compared with traditional methods will be discussed. Examples of 3D flows on realistic topography illustrate the environmental application of these methods. These include the flooding of a river valley as a result of a dam collapse, coastal inundation by a tsunami, volcanic lava flow and landslides. Issues related to validation and quality data availability are also discussed.

  16. Environmental Restoration and Waste Management manpower needs assessment: US Department of Energy complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmes, C.W.; Lewis, R.E.; Hunt, S.T. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Finn, M.G. (Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States))

    1992-06-01

    A study was conducted Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc. to assess the supply and demand for 53 scientific, engineering, and technical occupations relevant to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM). These assessments were made by examining budget projections and the input of program/project and human resources managers throughout the DOE complex. Quantitative projections of full-time equivalent employees slots for each occupation have been developed for the 1993--1997 time frame. Qualitative assessments of the factors that affect recruitment, staffing, and retention are also reported. The implications of the study are discussed within the likely skills mix of the future workforce and the education and organization interventions most likely to address the needs of the DOE complex.

  17. Environmental Restoration and Waste Management manpower needs assessment: US Department of Energy complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmes, C.W.; Lewis, R.E.; Hunt, S.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Finn, M.G. [Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States)

    1992-06-01

    A study was conducted Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc. to assess the supply and demand for 53 scientific, engineering, and technical occupations relevant to the US Department of Energy`s (DOE`s) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM). These assessments were made by examining budget projections and the input of program/project and human resources managers throughout the DOE complex. Quantitative projections of full-time equivalent employees slots for each occupation have been developed for the 1993--1997 time frame. Qualitative assessments of the factors that affect recruitment, staffing, and retention are also reported. The implications of the study are discussed within the likely skills mix of the future workforce and the education and organization interventions most likely to address the needs of the DOE complex.

  18. Assessment of methods to recover DNA from bacteria, fungi and archaea in complex environmental samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillén-Navarro, Karina; Herrera-López, David; López-Chávez, Mariana Y; Cancino-Gómez, Máximo; Reyes-Reyes, Ana L

    2015-11-01

    DNA extraction from environmental samples is a critical step for metagenomic analysis to study microbial communities, including those considered uncultivable. Nevertheless, obtaining good quality DNA in sufficient quantities for downstream methodologies is not always possible, and it depends on the complexity and stability of each ecosystem, which could be more problematic for samples from tropical regions because those ecosystems are less stable and more complex. Three laboratory methods for the extraction of nucleic acids from samples representing unstable (decaying coffee pulp and mangrove sediments) and relatively stable (compost and soil) environments were tested. The results were compared with those obtained using two commercial DNA extraction kits. The quality of the extracted DNA was evaluated by PCR amplification to verify the recovery of bacterial, archaeal, and fungal genetic material. The laboratory method that gave the best results used a lysis procedure combining physical, chemical, and enzymatic steps.

  19. Cellular Potts modeling of complex multicellular behaviors in tissue morphogenesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Hirashima (Tsuyoshi); E.G. Rens (Lisanne); R.M.H. Merks (Roeland)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractMathematical modeling is an essential approach for the understanding of complex multicellular behaviors in tissue morphogenesis. Here, we review the cellular Potts model (CPM; also known as the Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg model), an effective computational modeling framework. We discuss its

  20. Mathematical modeling of complex noise barriers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayek, S.I.

    1982-01-01

    Mathematical modeling of the noise reduction efficiency of highway noise barriers depends on the shape and absorptivity of the barrier, the influence of the impedance of the ground under the receiver, the atmospheric conditions as well as traffic details. The mathematical model for a barrier's noise reduction requires the knowledge of point-to-point acoustic diffraction models. In many instances, the shape of the barrier is simple; such as thin wall (edge), sharp wedge, and cylindrically topped berms. However, new designs of more efficient barriers have been investigated recently.

  1. Complex spectrum of spin models for finite-density QCD

    CERN Document Server

    Nishimura, Hiromichi; Pangeni, Kamal

    2016-01-01

    We consider the spectrum of transfer matrix eigenvalues associated with Polyakov loops in lattice QCD at strong coupling. The transfer matrix at finite density is non-Hermitian, and its eigenvalues become complex as a manifestation of the sign problem. We show that the symmetry under charge conjugation and complex conjugation ensures that the eigenvalues are either real or part of a complex conjugate pair, and the complex pairs lead to damped oscillatory behavior in Polyakov loop correlation functions, which also appeared in our previous phenomenological models using complex saddle points. We argue that this effect should be observable in lattice simulations of QCD at finite density.

  2. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  3. Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

    2015-01-01

    This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

  4. Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1996-01-01

    A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared with the resu......A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

  5. Mathematical modeling and optimization of complex structures

    CERN Document Server

    Repin, Sergey; Tuovinen, Tero

    2016-01-01

    This volume contains selected papers in three closely related areas: mathematical modeling in mechanics, numerical analysis, and optimization methods. The papers are based upon talks presented  on the International Conference for Mathematical Modeling and Optimization in Mechanics, held in Jyväskylä, Finland, March 6-7, 2014 dedicated to Prof. N. Banichuk on the occasion of his 70th birthday. The articles are written by well-known scientists working in computational mechanics and in optimization of complicated technical models. Also, the volume contains papers discussing the historical development, the state of the art, new ideas, and open problems arising in  modern continuum mechanics and applied optimization problems. Several papers are concerned with mathematical problems in numerical analysis, which are also closely related to important mechanical models. The main topics treated include:  * Computer simulation methods in mechanics, physics, and biology;  * Variational problems and methods; minimiz...

  6. Investigating complex networks with inverse models

    CERN Document Server

    Wens, Vincent

    2014-01-01

    Recent advances in neuroscience have motivated the study of network organization in spatially distributed dynamical systems from indirect measurements. However, the associated connectivity estimation, when combined with inverse modeling, is strongly affected by spatial leakage. We formulate this problem in a general framework and develop a new approach to model spatial leakage and limit its effects. It is analytically compared to existing regression-based methods used in electrophysiology, which are shown to yield biased estimates of amplitude and phase couplings.

  7. Using machine learning tools to model complex toxic interactions with limited sampling regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertin, Matthew J; Moeller, Peter; Guillette, Louis J; Chapman, Robert W

    2013-03-19

    A major impediment to understanding the impact of environmental stress, including toxins and other pollutants, on organisms, is that organisms are rarely challenged by one or a few stressors in natural systems. Thus, linking laboratory experiments that are limited by practical considerations to a few stressors and a few levels of these stressors to real world conditions is constrained. In addition, while the existence of complex interactions among stressors can be identified by current statistical methods, these methods do not provide a means to construct mathematical models of these interactions. In this paper, we offer a two-step process by which complex interactions of stressors on biological systems can be modeled in an experimental design that is within the limits of practicality. We begin with the notion that environment conditions circumscribe an n-dimensional hyperspace within which biological processes or end points are embedded. We then randomly sample this hyperspace to establish experimental conditions that span the range of the relevant parameters and conduct the experiment(s) based upon these selected conditions. Models of the complex interactions of the parameters are then extracted using machine learning tools, specifically artificial neural networks. This approach can rapidly generate highly accurate models of biological responses to complex interactions among environmentally relevant toxins, identify critical subspaces where nonlinear responses exist, and provide an expedient means of designing traditional experiments to test the impact of complex mixtures on biological responses. Further, this can be accomplished with an astonishingly small sample size.

  8. SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Diederik

    2017-04-01

    As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different

  9. A review of methods for modelling environmental tracers in groundwater: Advantages of tracer concentration simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turnadge, Chris; Smerdon, Brian D.

    2014-11-01

    Mathematical models of varying complexity have been developed since the 1960s to interpret environmental tracer concentrations in groundwater flow systems. This review examines published studies of model-based environmental tracer interpretation, the progress of different modelling approaches, and also considers the value of modelling tracer concentrations directly rather than estimations of groundwater age. Based on citation metrics generated using the Web of Science and Google Scholar reference databases, the most highly utilised interpretation approaches are lumped parameter models (421 citations), followed closely by direct age models (220 citations). A third approach is the use of mixing cell models (99 citations). Although lumped parameter models are conceptually simple and require limited data, they are unsuitable for characterising the internal dynamics of a hydrogeological system and/or under conditions where large scale anthropogenic stresses occur within a groundwater basin. Groundwater age modelling, and in particular, the simulation of environmental tracer transport that explicitly accounts for the accumulation and decay of tracer mass, has proven to be highly beneficial in constraining numerical models. Recent improvements in computing power have made numerical simulation of tracer transport feasible. We argue that, unlike directly simulated ages, the results of tracer mass transport simulation can be compared directly to observations, without needing to correct for apparent age bias or other confounding factors.

  10. A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Gu

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

  11. Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

    CERN Document Server

    Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

  12. Modeling complex systems in the geosciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-03-01

    Many geophysical phenomena can be described as complex systems, involving phenomena such as extreme or "wild" events that often do not follow the Gaussian distribution that would be expected if the events were simply random and uncorrelated. For instance, some geophysical phenomena like earthquakes show a much higher occurrence of relatively large values than would a Gaussian distribution and so are examples of the "Noah effect" (named by Benoit Mandelbrot for the exceptionally heavy rain in the biblical flood). Other geophysical phenomena are examples of the "Joseph effect," in which a state is especially persistent, such as a spell of multiple consecutive hot days (heat waves) or several dry summers in a row. The Joseph effect was named after the biblical story in which Joseph's dream of seven fat cows and seven thin ones predicted 7 years of plenty followed by 7 years of drought.

  13. 78 FR 70935 - Notice of Availability of the Environmental Protection Agency's 2011 Emissions Modeling Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-27

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Notice of Availability of the Environmental Protection Agency's 2011 Emissions Modeling Platform... Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is providing notice that the 2011 Emissions Modeling Platform data...

  14. 76 FR 69769 - Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-09

    ... indication of citizenship and affiliation) may be faxed or emailed to: Mark Fuhrmann, Environmental Transport... COMMISSION Annual Public Meeting of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling... the Federal Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) will...

  15. Risk forecasting and evaluating model of Environmental pollution accident

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Wei-hua; CHENG Sheng-tong

    2005-01-01

    Environmental risk (ER) fact ore come from ER source and they are controlled by the primary control mechanism (PCM) of environmental risk, due to the self failures or the effects of external environment risk trigger mechanism, the PCM could not work regularly any more, then, the ER factore will release environmental space, and an ER field is formed up. The forming of ER field does not mean that any environmental pollution accident(EPA) will break out; only the ER receptore are exposed in the ER field and damaged seriously,the potential ER really turns into an actual EPA. Researching on the general laws of evolving from environmental risk to EPA, this paper bring forwards a relevant concept model of risk forecasting and evaluating of EPA. This model provides some scientific methods for risk evaluation, prevention and emergency response of EPA. This model not only enriches and develops the theory system of environment safety and emergency response, but also acts as an instruction for public safety, enterprise' s safety management and emergency response of the accident.

  16. A risk computation model for environmental restoration activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Droppo, J.B. Jr.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    A risk computation model useful in environmental restoration activities was developed for the US Department of Energy (DOE). This model, the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS), can be used to evaluate effects of potential exposures over a broad range of regulatory issues including radioactive carcinogenic, nonradioactive carcinogenic, and noncarcinogenic effects. MEPAS integrates risk computation components. Release, transport, dispersion, deposition, exposure, and uptake computations are linked in a single system for evaluation of air, surface water, ground water, and overland flow transport. MEPAS uses standard computation approaches. Whenever available and appropriate, US Environmental Protection Agency guidance and models were used to facilitate compatibility and acceptance. MEPAS is a computational tool that can be used at several phases of an environmental restoration effort. At a preliminary stage in problem characterization, potential problems can be prioritized. As more data become available, MEPAS can provide an estimate of baseline risks or evaluate environmental monitoring data. In the feasibility stage, MEPAS can compute risk from alternative remedies. However, MEPAS is not designed to replace a detailed risk assessment of the selected remedy. For major problems, it will be appropriate to use a more detailed, risk computation tool for a detailed, site-specific evaluation of the selected remedy. 15 refs., 2 figs.

  17. Multilevel complex interactions between genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors in the aetiology of anomalies of dental development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, A H

    2009-12-01

    Dental anomalies are caused by complex interactions between genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors during the long process of dental development. This process is multifactorial, multilevel, multidimensional and progressive over time. In this paper the evidence from animal models and from human studies is integrated to outline the current position and to construct and evaluate models, as a basis for future work. Dental development is multilevel entailing molecular and cellular interactions which have macroscopic outcomes. It is multidimensional, requiring developments in the three spatial dimensions and the fourth dimension of time. It is progressive, occurring over a long period, yet with critical stages. The series of interactions involving multiple genetic signalling pathways are also influenced by extracellular factors. Interactions, gradients and spatial field effects of multiple genes, epigenetic and environmental factors all influence the development of individual teeth, groups of teeth and the dentition as a whole. The macroscopic, clinically visible result in humans is a complex unit of four different tooth types formed in morphogenetic fields, in which teeth within each field form directionally and erupt at different times, reflecting the spatio-temporal control of development. Even when a specific mutation of a single gene or one major environmental insult has been identified in a patient with a dental anomaly, detailed investigation of the phenotype often reveals variation between affected individuals in the same family, between dentitions in the same individual and even between different teeth in the same dentition. The same, or closely similar phenotypes, whether anomalies of tooth number or structure, may arise from different aetiologies: not only mutations in different genes but also environmental factors may result in similar phenotypes. Related to the action of a number of the developmental regulatory genes active in odontogenesis, in

  18. Multilevel complex interactions between genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors in the aetiology of anomalies of dental development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, A.H.

    2009-01-01

    Dental anomalies are caused by complex interactions between genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors during the long process of dental development. This process is multifactorial, multilevel, multidimensional and progressive over time. In this paper the evidence from animal models and from human studies is integrated to outline the current position and to construct and evaluate models, as a basis for future work. Dental development is multilevel entailing molecular and cellular interactions which have macroscopic outcomes. It is multidimensional, requiring developments in the three spatial dimensions and the fourth dimension of time. It is progressive, occurring over a long period, yet with critical stages. The series of interactions involving multiple genetic signalling pathways are also influenced by extracellular factors. Interactions, gradients and spatial field effects of multiple genes, epigenetic and environmental factors all influence the development of individual teeth, groups of teeth and the dentition as a whole. The macroscopic, clinically visible result in humans is a complex unit of four different tooth types formed in morphogenetic fields, in which teeth within each field form directionally and erupt at different times, reflecting the spatio-temporal control of development. Even when a specific mutation of a single gene or one major environmental insult has been identified in a patient with a dental anomaly, detailed investigation of the phenotype often reveals variation between affected individuals in the same family, between dentitions in the same individual and even between different teeth in the same dentition. The same, or closely similar phenotypes, whether anomalies of tooth number or structure, may arise from different aetiologies: not only mutations in different genes but also environmental factors may result in similar phenotypes. Related to the action of a number of the developmental regulatory genes active in odontogenesis, in

  19. Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex. [Construction and operation of proposed facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

    1982-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report.

  20. Complex Response of White Pines to Past Environmental Variability Increases Understanding of Future Vulnerability

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Ecological niche models predict plant responses to climate change by circumscribing species distributions within a multivariate environmental framework. Most projections based on modern bioclimatic correlations imply that high-elevation species are likely to be extirpated from their current ranges as a result of rising growing-season temperatures in the coming decades. Paleoecological data spanning the last 15,000 years from the Greater Yellowstone region describe the response of vegetation t...

  1. Modelling Complex Relevance Spaces with Copulas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Eickhoff (Carsten); A.P. de Vries (Arjen)

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractModern relevance models consider a wide range of criteria in order to identify those documents that are expected to satisfy the user's information need. With growing dimensionality of the underlying relevance spaces the need for sophisticated score combination and estimation schemes

  2. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  3. Model evaluation of RIMPUFF within complex terrain using an 41Ar radiological dataset

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyer, Leisa L.; Astrup, Poul

    2012-01-01

    The newly updated atmospheric dispersion model RIMPUFF is evaluated using routine releases of 41Ar from the former HIFAR research reactor located in Sydney, Australia. A large number of 41Ar measurements from a network of environmental gamma detectors are used to evaluate the model under a range...... of atmospheric stability conditions within the complex terrain area. Model sensitivity of input data is analysed including meteorological station data, land use maps, surface roughness and wind interpolation schemes. Various model evaluation tools are used such as gamma dose rate plots, exploratory data analyses...... and relevant statistical performance measures. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd....

  4. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  5. Exploratory behaviour in the open field test adapted for larval zebrafish: impact of environmental complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Farooq; Richardson, Michael K

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to develop and characterize a novel (standard) open field test adapted for larval zebrafish. We also developed and characterized a variant of the same assay consisting of a colour-enriched open field; this was used to assess the impact of environmental complexity on patterns of exploratory behaviours as well to determine natural colour preference/avoidance. We report the following main findings: (1) zebrafish larvae display characteristic patterns of exploratory behaviours in the standard open field, such as thigmotaxis/centre avoidance; (2) environmental complexity (i.e. presence of colours) differentially affects patterns of exploratory behaviours and greatly attenuates natural zone preference; (3) larvae displayed the ability to discriminate colours. As reported previously in adult zebrafish, larvae showed avoidance towards blue and black; however, in contrast to the reported adult behaviour, larvae displayed avoidance towards red. Avoidance towards yellow and preference for green and orange are shown for the first time, (4) compared to standard open field tests, exposure to the colour-enriched open field resulted in an enhanced expression of anxiety-like behaviours. To conclude, we not only developed and adapted a traditional rodent behavioural assay that serves as a gold standard in preclinical drug screening, but we also provide a version of the same test that affords the possibility to investigate the impact of environmental stress on behaviour in larval zebrafish while representing the first test for assessment of natural colour preference/avoidance in larval zebrafish. In the future, these assays will improve preclinical drug screening methodologies towards the goal to uncover novel drugs. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: insert SI title.

  6. A system for environmental protection. Reference dose models for fauna and flora

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pentreath, R.J. [Environment Agency, Bristol (United Kingdom); Woodhead, D.S.

    2000-05-01

    Ideas have already been published on how the current problems relating to environmental protection could be explicitly addressed. One of the basic cornerstones of the proposed system is that of the use of reference dose models for fauna and flora, in a manner analogous to those used for the human species. The concept is that, for a number of both aquatic and terrestrial fauna and flora types, 'reference' dose models, and dose per unit (internal and external) exposure tables, could be compiled. These would then be used to draw broad conclusions on the likely effects for such organisms in relation to three broad environment end points of concern: life shortening; impairment of reproductive capacity; and scorable, cytogenetic damage. The level of complexity of the dose models needs to be commensurate with the morphological complexity of the modelled organism, its size, and the data bases which are either available or could be reasonably obtained. The most basic models considered are either solid ellipsoids or spheres, with fixed dimensions. Secondary models contain internal, but relatively simple geometric features representative of those key organs or tissues for which more precise estimates of dose are required. Their level of complexity is also a function of different internal and external sources of radiation, and expected differences in radiosensitivities. Tertiary models -of greater complexity- are only considered to be of value for higher vertebrates. The potential derivation and use of all three sets of models is briefly discussed. (author)

  7. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  8. Non-commutative Complex Projective Spaces and the Standard Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dolan, Brian P

    2003-01-01

    The standard model fermion spectrum, including a right handed neutrino, can be obtained as a zero-mode of the Dirac operator on a space which is the product of complex projective spaces of complex dimension two and three. The construction requires the introduction of topologically non-trivial background gauge fields. By borrowing from ideas in Connes' non-commutative geometry and making the complex spaces `fuzzy' a matrix approximation to the fuzzy space allows for three generations to emerge...

  9. A musculoskeletal model of the elbow joint complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Roger V.; Barr, Ronald E.; Abraham, Lawrence D.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes a musculoskeletal model that represents human elbow flexion-extension and forearm pronation-supination. Musculotendon parameters and the skeletal geometry were determined for the musculoskeletal model in the analysis of ballistic elbow joint complex movements. The key objective was to develop a computational model, guided by optimal control, to investigate the relationship among patterns of muscle excitation, individual muscle forces, and movement kinematics. The model was verified using experimental kinematic, torque, and electromyographic data from volunteer subjects performing both isometric and ballistic elbow joint complex movements. In general, the model predicted kinematic and muscle excitation patterns similar to what was experimentally measured.

  10. Cellular Potts modeling of complex multicellular behaviors in tissue morphogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirashima, Tsuyoshi; Rens, Elisabeth G; Merks, Roeland M H

    2017-06-01

    Mathematical modeling is an essential approach for the understanding of complex multicellular behaviors in tissue morphogenesis. Here, we review the cellular Potts model (CPM; also known as the Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg model), an effective computational modeling framework. We discuss its usability for modeling complex developmental phenomena by examining four fundamental examples of tissue morphogenesis: (i) cell sorting, (ii) cyst formation, (iii) tube morphogenesis in kidney development, and (iv) blood vessel formation. The review provides an introduction for biologists for starting simulation analysis using the CPM framework. © 2017 Japanese Society of Developmental Biologists.

  11. Dynamic Probabilistic Modeling of Environmental Emissions of Engineered Nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tian Yin; Bornhöft, Nikolaus A; Hungerbühler, Konrad; Nowack, Bernd

    2016-05-03

    The need for an environmental risk assessment for engineered nanomaterials (ENM) necessitates the knowledge about their environmental concentrations. Despite significant advances in analytical methods, it is still not possible to measure the concentrations of ENM in natural systems. Material flow and environmental fate models have been used to provide predicted environmental concentrations. However, almost all current models are static and consider neither the rapid development of ENM production nor the fact that many ENM are entering an in-use stock and are released with a lag phase. Here we use dynamic probabilistic material flow modeling to predict the flows of four ENM (nano-TiO2, nano-ZnO, nano-Ag and CNT) to the environment and to quantify their amounts in (temporary) sinks such as the in-use stock and ("final") environmental sinks such as soil and sediment. Caused by the increase in production, the concentrations of all ENM in all compartments are increasing. Nano-TiO2 had far higher concentrations than the other three ENM. Sediment showed in our worst-case scenario concentrations ranging from 6.7 μg/kg (CNT) to about 40 000 μg/kg (nano-TiO2). In most cases the concentrations in waste incineration residues are at the "mg/kg" level. The flows to the environment that we provide will constitute the most accurate and reliable input of masses for environmental fate models which are using process-based descriptions of the fate and behavior of ENM in natural systems and rely on accurate mass input parameters.

  12. Model Reduction for Complex Hyperbolic Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Himpe, Christian; Ohlberger, Mario

    2013-01-01

    We recently introduced the joint gramian for combined state and parameter reduction [C. Himpe and M. Ohlberger. Cross-Gramian Based Combined State and Parameter Reduction for Large-Scale Control Systems. arXiv:1302.0634, 2013], which is applied in this work to reduce a parametrized linear time-varying control system modeling a hyperbolic network. The reduction encompasses the dimension of nodes and parameters of the underlying control system. Networks with a hyperbolic structure have many app...

  13. Efficient Electromagnetic Modelling of Complex Structures

    OpenAIRE

    Tobon Vasquez, Jorge Alberto

    2014-01-01

    Part 1. Space vehicles re-entering earth's atmosphere produce a shock wave which in turns results in a bow of plasma around the vehicle body. This plasma signicantly affects all radio links between the vehicle and ground, since the electron plasma frequency reaches beyond several GHz. In this work, a model of the propagation in plasma issue is developed. The radiofrequency propagation from/to antennae installed aboard the vehicle to the ground stations (or Data Relay Satellites) can be predic...

  14. Modeling of Complex Mixtures: JP-8 Toxicokinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    diffusion, including metabolic loss via the cytochrome P-450 system, described by non-linear Michaelis - Menten kinetics as shown in the following...point. Inhalation and iv were the dose routes for the rat study. The modelers used saturable ( Michaelis - Menten ) kinetics as well as a second... Michaelis - Menten liver metabolic constants for n-decane have been measured (Km = 1.5 mg/L and Vmax = 0.4 mg/hour) using rat liver slices in a vial

  15. Locomotor activity in common spiny mice (Acomys cahirinuse: The effect of light and environmental complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eilam David

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rodents typically avoid illuminated and open areas, favoring dark or sheltered environments for activity. While previous studies focused on the effect of these environmental attributes on the level of activity, the present study tested whether the spatio-temporal structure of activity was also modified in illuminated compared with dark and complex compared with open arenas. For this, we tested common spiny mice (Acomys cahirinus in empty or stone-containing arenas with lights on or lights off. Results In an illuminated or open arena, spiny mice moved in less frequent but longer trips with relatively long distances between consecutive stops. In contrast, in either a dark arena or an arena with stones, the animals took shorter and more frequent trips, with more stops per trip and shorter inter-stop distances. In illuminated arenas spiny mice remained mainly along the walls, whereas locomotion in the center was more prevalent in dark empty arenas, and was carried out along convoluted paths. Increasing environmental complexity by adding stones to either illuminated or dark arenas increased locomotion along straight trajectories and away from walls. Conclusions Earlier findings of reduced activity in illuminated or open areas have been extended in the present study by demonstrating changes in the spatio-temporal structure of locomotor behavior. In the more complex arenas (with stones spiny mice traveled along short straight segments whereas in the open their trips were longer and took the shape of a zigzag path which is more effective against fast or nearby predators. Alternatively, the zigzag path may reflect a difficulty in navigation.

  16. Toward Modeling the Intrinsic Complexity of Test Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shoufan, Abdulhadi

    2017-01-01

    The concept of intrinsic complexity explains why different problems of the same type, tackled by the same problem solver, can require different times to solve and yield solutions of different quality. This paper proposes a general four-step approach that can be used to establish a model for the intrinsic complexity of a problem class in terms of…

  17. Modeling the Relationships between Subdimensions of Environmental Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genc, Murat; Akilli, Mustafa

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the relationships between subdimensions of environmental literacy using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The study was conducted by the analysis of students' answers to questionnaires data using SEM. Initially, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and Bartlett's tests were done to test appropriateness of subdimensions to…

  18. Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

  19. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  20. Environmental Concern and Sociodemographic Variables: A Study of Statistical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Chenyang; McCright, Aaron M.

    2007-01-01

    Studies of the social bases of environmental concern over the past 30 years have produced somewhat inconsistent results regarding the effects of sociodemographic variables, such as gender, income, and place of residence. The authors argue that model specification errors resulting from violation of two statistical assumptions (interval-level…

  1. Application of computer simulated persons in indoor environmental modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topp, C.; Nielsen, P. V.; Sørensen, Dan Nørtoft

    2002-01-01

    Computer simulated persons are often applied when the indoor environment is modeled by computational fluid dynamics. The computer simulated persons differ in size, shape, and level of geometrical complexity, ranging from simple box or cylinder shaped heat sources to more humanlike models. Little...

  2. Planetary and Interplanetary Environmental Models for Radiation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelis, G.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2005-01-01

    The essence of environmental modeling is presented as suited for radiation analysis purposes. The variables of fundamental importance for radiation environmental assessment are discussed. The characterization is performed by dividing modeling into three areas, namely the interplanetary medium, the circumplanetary environment, and the planetary or satellite surface. In the first area, the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and their modulation by the heliospheric magnetic field as well as and solar particle events (SPE) are considered, in the second area the magnetospheres are taken into account, and in the third area the effect of the planetary environment is also considered. Planetary surfaces and atmospheres are modeled based on results from the most recent targeted spacecraft. The results are coupled with suited visualization techniques and radiation transport models in support of trade studies of health risks for future exploration missions.

  3. Fluid flow modeling in complex areas*, **

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poullet Pascal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We show first results of 3D simulation of sea currents in a realistic context. We use the full Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible viscous fluid. The problem is solved using a second order incremental projection method associated with the finite volume of the staggered (MAC scheme for the spatial discretization. After validation on classical cases, it is used in a numerical simulation of the Pointe à Pitre harbour area. The use of the fictious domain method permits us to take into account the complexity of bathymetric data and allows us to work with regular meshes and thus preserves the efficiency essential for a 3D code. Dans cette étude, nous présentons les premiers résultats de simulation d’un écoulement d’un fluide incompressible visqueux dans un contexte environnemental réel. L’approche utilisée utilise une méthode de domaines fictifs pour une prise en compte d’un domaine physique tridimensionnel très irrégulier. Le schéma numérique combine un schéma de projection incrémentale et des volumes finis utilisant des volumes de contrôle adaptés à un maillage décalé. Les tests de validation sont menés pour les cas tests de la cavité double entraînée ainsi que l’écoulement dans un canal avec un obstacle placé de manière asymmétrique.

  4. The evolution of the Dogger Bank, North Sea: A complex history of terrestrial, glacial and marine environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterill, Carol J.; Phillips, Emrys; James, Leo; Forsberg, Carl Fredrik; Tjelta, Tor Inge; Carter, Gareth; Dove, Dayton

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results of a detailed multidisciplinary study of the near surface geology of the Dogger Bank in the southern central North Sea, forming part of a site investigation for a major windfarm development undertaken by the Forewind consortium. It has revealed that the Dogger Bank is internally complex rather than comprising a simple ;layer cake; of the Quaternary sediments as previously thought. Regional and high-resolution seismic surveys have enabled a revised stratigraphic framework to be established for the upper part of this sequence which comprises the Eem (oldest), Dogger Bank, Bolders Bank formations and Botney Cut Formation (youngest), overlain by a typically thin Holocene sequence. Detailed mapping of key horizons identified on the high-resolution seismic profiles has led to the recognition of a series of buried palaeo-landsystems which are characterised by a range of features including; glacial, glacifluvial and fluvial channels, a large-scale glacitectonic thrust-moraine complex with intervening ice-marginal basins, a lacustrine basin and marine ravinement surfaces. Interpretation of these buried landscapes has enabled the development of an environmental change model to explain the evolution of the Dogger Bank. This evolution was driven by the complex interplay between climate change, ice sheet dynamics and sea level change associated with the growth and subsequent demise of the British and Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets during the Weichselian glaciation. Following the decay of these ice sheets the Dogger Bank entered a period of significant climatic and environmental flux which saw a terrestrial landscape being progressively inundated as sea levels rose during the Holocene.

  5. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

  6. Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

    This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data and indi...

  7. Optimization Model for Environmental Stress Screening of Electronic Components

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Environmental stress screening (ESS) is a technological process to reduce the costly early field failure ofelectronic components. This paper builds an optimization model for ESS of electronic components to obtain the optimalESS duration. The failure phenomena of ESS are modeled by mix ed distribution, and optimal ESS duration is definedby maximizing life-cycle cost savings under the condition of meeting reliability requirement.

  8. Environmental system analysis of waste management. Experiences from applications of the ORWARE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerklund, Anna

    2000-11-01

    Waste management has gone through a history of shifting problems, demands, and strategies over the years. In contrast to the long prevailing view that the problem could be solved by hiding or moving it, waste is now viewed as a problem ranging from local to global concern, and as being an integral part of several sectors in society. Decisive for this view has been society's increasing complexity and thus the increasing complexity of waste, together with a general development of environmental consciousness, moving from local focus on point emission sources, to regional and global issues of more complex nature. This thesis is about the development and application ORWARE; a model for computer aided environmental systems analysis of municipal waste management. Its origin is the hypothesis that widened perspectives are needed in waste management decision-making to avoid severe sub-optimisation of environmental performance. With a strong foundation in life cycle assessment (LCA), ORWARE aims to cover the environmental impacts over the entire life cycle of waste management. It also performs substance flow analysis (SFA) calculations at a rather detailed level of the system. Applying ORWARE has confirmed the importance of applying systems perspective and of taking into account site specific differences in analysis and planning of waste management, rather than relying on overly simplified solutions. Some findings can be generalised and used as guidelines to reduce environmental impact of waste management. Recovery of material and energy resources from waste generally leads to net reductions in energy use and environmental impact, because of the savings this brings about in other sectors. Waste treatment with low rate of energy and materials recovery should therefore be avoided. The exact choice of technology however depends on what products can be recovered and how they are used. Despite the complexity of the model and a certain degree of user unfriendliness, involved

  9. Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalmaz, E. E.

    1986-01-01

    A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.

  10. Hydrologic analyses in support of the Navajo Generating Station–Kayenta Mine Complex environmental impact statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leake, Stanley A.; Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-06-01

    IntroductionThe U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region (Reclamation) is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) for the Navajo Generating Station-Kayenta Mine Complex Project (NGS-KMC Project). The proposed project involves various Federal approvals that would facilitate continued operation of the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) from December 23, 2019 through 2044, and continued operation of the Kayenta Mine and support facilities (collectively called the Kayenta Mine Complex, or KMC) to supply coal to the NGS for this operational period. The EIS will consider several project alternatives that are likely to produce different effects on the Navajo (N) aquifer; the N aquifer is the principal water resource in the Black Mesa area used by the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, and Peabody Western Coal Company (PWCC).The N aquifer is composed of three hydraulically connected formations—the Navajo Sandstone, the Kayenta Formation, and the Lukachukai Member of the Wingate Sandstone—that function as a single aquifer. The N aquifer is confined under most of Black Mesa, and the overlying stratigraphy limits recharge to this part of the aquifer. The N aquifer is unconfined in areas surrounding Black Mesa, and most recharge occurs where the Navajo Sandstone is exposed in the area near Shonto, Arizona. Overlying the N aquifer is the D aquifer, which includes the Dakota Sandstone, Morrison Formation, Entrada Sandstone, and Carmel Formation. The aquifer is named for the Dakota Sandstone, which is the primary water-bearing unit.The NGS is located near Page, Arizona on the Navajo Nation. The KMC, which delivers coal to NGS by way of a dedicated electric railroad, is located approximately 83 miles southeast of NGS (about 125 miles northeast of Flagstaff, Arizona). The Kayenta Mine permit area is located on about 44,073 acres of land leased within the boundaries of the Hopi and Navajo Indian Reservations. KMC has been conducting mining and

  11. Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gorban, Alexander N

    2011-01-01

    This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

  12. Supply Chain as Complex Adaptive System and Its Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MingmingWang

    2004-01-01

    Supply chain is a complex, hierarchical, integrated, open and dynamic network.Every node in the network is an independent business unit that unites other organizations to develop its value, the competition and cooperation between these units are basic impetus of the development and evolution of the supply chain system. The characteristics of supply chain as a complex adaptive system and its modeling are discussed in this paper, and use an example demonstrating the feasibility of CAS modeling in supply chain management study.

  13. Reduction of the complexity of product modelling by modularisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    1998-01-01

    The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced.......The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced....

  14. Reduction of the complexity of product modelling by modularisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    1998-01-01

    The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced.......The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced....

  15. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  16. Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

  17. Rational Characterization Complex Geology Model——Macro Velocity Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SongWei

    2004-01-01

    The accuracy of migration velocity construction is always a key problem of the image quality of pre-stack depth migration. The velocity model construction process is a process from an unknown to unknown iteration procedure and involves three important steps -- model building, migration and model modification. It is necessary to rationally describe the velocity model, according to the complexity of the problem. Taking the Marmousi model as a study object, We established some standards for a rational description of the velocity model on the basis of different velocity space scales, analysis varieties of travel time, and image quality. It is considered that for any given seismic data gathered in the migration velocity model the space wavelength of velocity, which should be expressed in variation of space wavelength of various frequency contents, appears in the seismic data. Some space wavelengths, which are necessary for a description of the model velocity field, are also varying with the layer complexity. For a simple layer velocity structure it is sufficient to apply a simple velocity model (the space wavelength is large enough), whereas, for a complicated layer velocity structure it is necessary to take a velocity model of a more precise scale. In fact, when we establish a velocity model, it is difficult to describe the velocity model at a full space scale, so it is important to limit the space scale of the velocity model according to the complexity of a layer structure and establish a rational macro velocity model.

  18. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  19. Unified Modeling of Complex Real-Time Control Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hai, He; Chi-Lan, Cai

    2011-01-01

    Complex real-time control system is a software dense and algorithms dense system, which needs modern software engineering techniques to design. UML is an object-oriented industrial standard modeling language, used more and more in real-time domain. This paper first analyses the advantages and problems of using UML for real-time control systems design. Then, it proposes an extension of UML-RT to support time-continuous subsystems modeling. So we can unify modeling of complex real-time control systems on UML-RT platform, from requirement analysis, model design, simulation, until generation code.

  20. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  1. Testing a Model Linking Environmental Hope and Self-Control with Students' Positive Emotions and Environmental Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerret, Dorit; Orkibi, Hod; Ronen, Tammie

    2016-01-01

    This study examined a moderated mediation model with 254 Israeli junior high school students, hypothesizing that students' environmental hope would simultaneously mediate the relationship between their engagement in school-based environmental activities (green engagement) and their environmental behavior as well as their positivity ratio, but that…

  2. Testing a Model Linking Environmental Hope and Self-Control with Students' Positive Emotions and Environmental Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerret, Dorit; Orkibi, Hod; Ronen, Tammie

    2016-01-01

    This study examined a moderated mediation model with 254 Israeli junior high school students, hypothesizing that students' environmental hope would simultaneously mediate the relationship between their engagement in school-based environmental activities (green engagement) and their environmental behavior as well as their positivity ratio, but that…

  3. Nonlinear extensions of a fractal-multifractal approach for environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortis, A.; Puente, C.E.; Sivakumar, B.

    2008-10-15

    We present the extension of a deterministic fractal geometric procedure aimed at representing the complexity of the spatio-temporal patterns encountered in environmental applications. The original procedure, which is based on transformations of multifractal distributions via fractal functions, is extended through the introduction of nonlinear perturbations to the underlying iterated linear maps. We demonstrate how the nonlinear perturbations generate yet a richer collection of patterns by means of various simulations that include evolutions of patterns based on changes in their parameters and in their statistical and multifractal properties. It is shown that the nonlinear extensions yield structures that closely resemble complex hydrologic temporal data sets, such as rainfall and runoff time series, and width-functions of river networks as a function of distance from the basin outlet. The implications of this nonlinear approach for environmental modeling and prediction are discussed.

  4. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  5. Estimating the complexity of 3D structural models using machine learning methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía-Herrera, Pablo; Kakurina, Maria; Royer, Jean-Jacques

    2016-04-01

    Quantifying the complexity of 3D geological structural models can play a major role in natural resources exploration surveys, for predicting environmental hazards or for forecasting fossil resources. This paper proposes a structural complexity index which can be used to help in defining the degree of effort necessary to build a 3D model for a given degree of confidence, and also to identify locations where addition efforts are required to meet a given acceptable risk of uncertainty. In this work, it is considered that the structural complexity index can be estimated using machine learning methods on raw geo-data. More precisely, the metrics for measuring the complexity can be approximated as the difficulty degree associated to the prediction of the geological objects distribution calculated based on partial information on the actual structural distribution of materials. The proposed methodology is tested on a set of 3D synthetic structural models for which the degree of effort during their building is assessed using various parameters (such as number of faults, number of part in a surface object, number of borders, ...), the rank of geological elements contained in each model, and, finally, their level of deformation (folding and faulting). The results show how the estimated complexity in a 3D model can be approximated by the quantity of partial data necessaries to simulated at a given precision the actual 3D model without error using machine learning algorithms.

  6. Size and complexity in model financial systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M

    2012-11-06

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in "confidence" in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases.

  7. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  8. Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Ne-Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

  9. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  10. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised.Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  11. Rule-based models of the interplay between genetic and environmental factors in childhood allergy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Bornelöv

    Full Text Available Both genetic and environmental factors are important for the development of allergic diseases. However, a detailed understanding of how such factors act together is lacking. To elucidate the interplay between genetic and environmental factors in allergic diseases, we used a novel bioinformatics approach that combines feature selection and machine learning. In two materials, PARSIFAL (a European cross-sectional study of 3113 children and BAMSE (a Swedish birth-cohort including 2033 children, genetic variants as well as environmental and lifestyle factors were evaluated for their contribution to allergic phenotypes. Monte Carlo feature selection and rule based models were used to identify and rank rules describing how combinations of genetic and environmental factors affect the risk of allergic diseases. Novel interactions between genes were suggested and replicated, such as between ORMDL3 and RORA, where certain genotype combinations gave odds ratios for current asthma of 2.1 (95% CI 1.2-3.6 and 3.2 (95% CI 2.0-5.0 in the BAMSE and PARSIFAL children, respectively. Several combinations of environmental factors appeared to be important for the development of allergic disease in children. For example, use of baby formula and antibiotics early in life was associated with an odds ratio of 7.4 (95% CI 4.5-12.0 of developing asthma. Furthermore, genetic variants together with environmental factors seemed to play a role for allergic diseases, such as the use of antibiotics early in life and COL29A1 variants for asthma, and farm living and NPSR1 variants for allergic eczema. Overall, combinations of environmental and life style factors appeared more frequently in the models than combinations solely involving genes. In conclusion, a new bioinformatics approach is described for analyzing complex data, including extensive genetic and environmental information. Interactions identified with this approach could provide useful hints for further in-depth studies

  12. HIGH AND LOW RESOLUTION TEXTURED MODELS OF COMPLEX ARCHITECTURAL SURFACES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. K. Stathopoulou

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available During the recent years it has become obvious that 3D technology, applied mainly with the use of terrestrial laser scanners (TLS is the most suitable technique for the complete geometric documentation of complex objects, whether they are monuments or architectural constructions in general. However, it is rather a challenging task to convert an acquired point cloud into a realistic 3D polygonal model that can simultaneously satisfy high resolution modeling and visualization demands. The aim of the visualization of a simple or complex object is to create a 3D model that best describes the reality within the computer environment. This paper is dedicated especially in the visualization of a complex object's 3D model, through high, as well as low resolution textured models. The object of interest for this study was the Almoina (Romanesque Door of the Cathedral of Valencia in Spain.

  13. Backward Causation in Complex Action Model --- Superdeterminism and Transactional Interpretations

    CERN Document Server

    Nielsen, Holger B

    2010-01-01

    It is shown that the transactional interpretation of quantum mechanics being referred back to Feynman-Wheeler's time reversal symmetric radiation theory has reminiscences to our complex action model. In this complex action model the initial conditions are in principle even calculable. Thus it philosophically points towards superdeterminism, but really the Bell theorem problem is solved in our model of complex action by removing the significance of signals running slower than by light velocity. Our model as earlier published predicts that LHC should have some failure before reaching to have produced as many Higgs-particles as would have been produced the SSC accelerator. In the present article, we point out that a cardgame involving whether to restrict LHC-running as we have proposed to test our model will under all circumstances be a success.

  14. High and Low Resolution Textured Models of Complex Architectural Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stathopoulou, E. K.; Valanis, A.; Lerma, J. L.; Georgopoulos, A.

    2011-09-01

    During the recent years it has become obvious that 3D technology, applied mainly with the use of terrestrial laser scanners (TLS) is the most suitable technique for the complete geometric documentation of complex objects, whether they are monuments or architectural constructions in general. However, it is rather a challenging task to convert an acquired point cloud into a realistic 3D polygonal model that can simultaneously satisfy high resolution modeling and visualization demands. The aim of the visualization of a simple or complex object is to create a 3D model that best describes the reality within the computer environment. This paper is dedicated especially in the visualization of a complex object's 3D model, through high, as well as low resolution textured models. The object of interest for this study was the Almoina (Romanesque) Door of the Cathedral of Valencia in Spain.

  15. BlenX-based compositional modeling of complex reaction mechanisms

    CERN Document Server

    Zámborszky, Judit; 10.4204/EPTCS.19.6

    2010-01-01

    Molecular interactions are wired in a fascinating way resulting in complex behavior of biological systems. Theoretical modeling provides a useful framework for understanding the dynamics and the function of such networks. The complexity of the biological networks calls for conceptual tools that manage the combinatorial explosion of the set of possible interactions. A suitable conceptual tool to attack complexity is compositionality, already successfully used in the process algebra field to model computer systems. We rely on the BlenX programming language, originated by the beta-binders process calculus, to specify and simulate high-level descriptions of biological circuits. The Gillespie's stochastic framework of BlenX requires the decomposition of phenomenological functions into basic elementary reactions. Systematic unpacking of complex reaction mechanisms into BlenX templates is shown in this study. The estimation/derivation of missing parameters and the challenges emerging from compositional model buildin...

  16. Generalized complex geometry, generalized branes and the Hitchin sigma model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zucchini, Roberto E-mail: zucchinir@bo.infn.it

    2005-03-01

    Hitchin's generalized complex geometry has been shown to be relevant in compactifications of superstring theory with fluxes and is expected to lead to a deeper understanding of mirror symmetry. Gualtieri's notion of generalized complex submanifold seems to be a natural candidate for the description of branes in this context. Recently, we introduced a Batalin-Vilkovisky field theoretic realization of generalized complex geometry, the Hitchin sigma model, extending the well known Poisson sigma model. In this paper, exploiting Gualtieri's formalism, we incorporate branes into the model. A detailed study of the boundary conditions obeyed by the world sheet fields is provided. Finally, it is found that, when branes are present, the classical Batalin-Vilkovisky cohomology contains an extra sector that is related non trivially to a novel cohomology associated with the branes as generalized complex submanifolds. (author)

  17. Generalized complex geometry, generalized branes and the Hitchin sigma model

    CERN Document Server

    Zucchini, R

    2005-01-01

    Hitchin's generalized complex geometry has been shown to be relevant in compactifications of superstring theory with fluxes and is expected to lead to a deeper understanding of mirror symmetry. Gualtieri's notion of generalized complex submanifold seems to be a natural candidate for the description of branes in this context. Recently, we introduced a field theoretic realization of generalized complex geometry, the Hitchin sigma model, extending the well known Poisson sigma model. In this paper, exploiting Gualtieri's formalism, we incorporate branes into the model. A detailed study of the boundary conditions obeyed by the world sheet fields is provided. Finally, it is found that, when branes are present, the classical Batalin--Vilkovisky cohomology contains an extra sector that is related non trivially to a novel cohomology associated with the branes as generalized complex submanifolds.

  18. Interactive Higher Education Instruction to Advance STEM Instruction in the Environmental Sciences - the Brownfield Action Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddicoat, J. C.; Bower, P.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that presently there are over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly in the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part or entirely online for more than 15 years in environmental science, engineering, and hydrology courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011, 2014; Liddicoat and Bower, 2015). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies with a peer chosen at random to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants and professionals, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue, and to acquire STEM knowledge that can be used constructively when confronted with such an issue.

  19. Finite element analysis to model complex mitral valve repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labrosse, Michel; Mesana, Thierry; Baxter, Ian; Chan, Vincent

    2016-01-01

    Although finite element analysis has been used to model simple mitral repair, it has not been used to model complex repair. A virtual mitral valve model was successful in simulating normal and abnormal valve function. Models were then developed to simulate an edge-to-edge repair and repair employing quadrangular resection. Stress contour plots demonstrated increased stresses along the mitral annulus, corresponding to the annuloplasty. The role of finite element analysis in guiding clinical practice remains undetermined.

  20. Molecular typing of environmental Cryptococcus neoformans/C. gattii species complex isolates from Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Gleica Soyan Barbosa; Freire, Ana Karla Lima; Bentes, Amaury Dos Santos; Pinheiro, José Felipe de Souza; de Souza, João Vicente Braga; Wanke, Bodo; Matsuura, Takeshi; Jackisch-Matsuura, Ani Beatriz

    2016-08-01

    Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii are the main causative agents of cryptococcosis, a systemic fungal disease that affects internal organs and skin, and which is acquired by inhalation of spores or encapsulated yeasts. It is currently known that the C. neoformans/C. gattii species complex has a worldwide distribution, however, some molecular types seem to prevail in certain regions. Few environmental studies of Cryptococcus have been conducted in the Brazilian Amazon. This is the first ecological study of the pathogenic fungi C. neoformans/C. gattii species complex in the urban area of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. A total of 506 samples from pigeon droppings (n = 191), captive bird droppings (n = 60) and tree hollows (n = 255) were collected from June 2012 to January 2014 at schools and public buildings, squares, pet shops, households, the zoo and the bus station. Samples were plated on niger seed agar (NSA) medium supplemented with chloramphenicol and incubated at 25°C for 5 days. Dark-brown colonies were isolated and tested for thermotolerance at 37°C, cycloheximide resistance and growth on canavanine-glycine-bromothymol blue agar. Molecular typing was done by PCR-RFLP. Susceptibility to the antifungal drugs amphotericin B, fluconazole, itraconazole and ketoconazole was tested using Etest(®) strips. In total, 13 positive samples were obtained: one tree hollow (C. gattiiVGII), nine pigeon droppings (C. neoformansVNI) and three captive bird droppings (C. neoformansVNI). The environmental cryptococcal isolates found in this study were of the same molecular types as those responsible for infections in Manaus. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  1. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M. (eds.)

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.

  2. Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S.; Breen, Lauren J.; Witt, Regina R.; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

    2016-01-01

    Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care. PMID:27242567

  3. Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S; Breen, Lauren J; Witt, Regina R; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

    2016-01-01

    Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care.

  4. Characteristics of environmental pollution related with public complaints in an industrial shipbuilding complex, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Jae-Woo; Lee, Myoung-Eun; Lee, Hyeon-Don

    2011-06-01

    The shipbuilding industry of Korea, ranked number one in the world in annual amount of ship orders, has contributed to national economic growth; however, this has resulted in various environmental problems. Characteristics of environmental pollution, such as particulate matters, odor, and noise, which are closely related with public complaints, were evaluated in an industrial shipbuilding complex. The concentrations of PM-10 and TSP were significantly affected by the distance between the measurement site and shipbuilding workplace, as well as the height of the measurement site. Average PM-10 concentrations in the residential area ranged from 40.10 to 44.10 μg/m(3), which were not high in comparison with the ambient air quality standard and those of major cities in Korea. Paint particles could affect a wider area than typical particulate matters due to their generation and transport properties. The properties of odor in the study area were widely affected by the work intensity in shipyards and the temperature. Twenty-five out of total 54 samples collected in the residential area exceeded the dilution factor of 10, which is the tolerable limit adopted in Korea. Noise had an influence on a limited area due to the extinction effect with distance from the shipyards, while severe noise levels higher than 90 dB(A) were frequently found inside the shipyards.

  5. Association between polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial Mycobacterium avium complex infection and environmental exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujita, Kohei; Ito, Yutaka; Hirai, Toyohiro; Kubo, Takeshi; Maekawa, Koichi; Togashi, Kaori; Ichiyama, Satoshi; Mishima, Michiaki

    2014-01-01

    Polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) infection is observed in pulmonary MAC disease. Human living environments contain multiple species or genotypes of nontuberculous mycobacterial strains and are considered sources of infection. To investigate the association of environmental exposure with polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial infection in pulmonary MAC disease after adjustments for potential confounding diseases and conditions and radiographic findings. We collected two separate sputum samples from 102 patients and single sputum samples from 18 patients in whom the second MAC strain was not isolated in our prospective cohort of pulmonary MAC disease. MAC isolates from sputum samples and patients' residential soils were used for variable number of tandem repeats (VNTR) analyses. Polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial MAC infections were defined as having different VNTR genotypes and other mycobacterial species, respectively. Monoclonal MAC infection was defined as all isolates showing a single VNTR genotype. Associations of the type of infection with clinical and radiographic findings and environmental exposure were measured. Polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial MAC and monoclonal infections were observed in 42 and 78 patients, respectively. By stepwise regression analysis, patients with polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial MAC infections were associated with history of asthma (odds ratio [OR], 11.56; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.41-255.77; P = 0.021), high soil exposure (≥2 h/wk; OR, 4.31; 95% CI, 1.72-11.45; P swimming in a pool (OR, 9.69; 95% CI, 1.21-206.92; P < 0.01). Environmental exposure was associated with polyclonal and mixed mycobacterial MAC infection in pulmonary MAC disease.

  6. Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

    2010-01-01

    Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response

  7. Representing Microbial Processes in Environmental Reactive Transport Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Cappellen, P.

    2009-04-01

    Microorganisms play a key role in the biogeochemical functioning of the earth's surface and shallow subsurface. In the context of reactive transport modeling, a major challenge is to derive, parameterize, calibrate and verify mathematical expressions for microbially-mediated reactions in the environmental. This is best achieved by combining field observations, laboratory experiments, theoretical principles and modeling. Here, I will illustrate such an integrated approach for the case of microbial respiration processes in aquatic sediments. Important issues that will be covered include experimental design, model consistency and performance, as well as the bioenergetics and transient behavior of geomicrobial reaction systems.

  8. The Y-12 Plant - a model for environmental excellence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy`s Y-12 Plant, located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, occupies more than 800 acres and has a work force of over 4,000 employees. The Y-12 Plant is managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of Martin Marietta Corporation. Although mission emphases at the Y-12 Plant have evolved and changed with the easing of international tensions, the Plant continues to serve as a key manufacturing unit and technology demonstration center for the Department of Energy and the nation. The Y-12 Plant has undergone many changes in the last 14 years. One of the most dramatic changes has occurred in the environmental programs with measurable improvements in environmental quality, the development of an award-winning pollution prevention program, and the institution of an environmentally-conscious work ethic among the work force. Because the plant is committed to achieving excellence, not just compliance with laws and regulations, a highly structured, multimedia environmental management program is in place. This program, combined with a commitment to protect the environment while striving for continued improvement, has placed Y-12 in the position to reach excellence. As a result of the Y-12 Plant`s changing mission, they are now working closely with American industry through technology transfer to share their experiences and {open_quotes}lessons learned{close_quotes}--including environmental and pollution prevention technology. To facilitate this effort, the Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology has been established at the Y-12 Plant. Through the Centers, the Oak Ridge staff applies skills, capabilities, and facilities developed over a 50-year history of the Oak Ridge Complex to a variety of peacetime missions. The services found at the Centers are a key to helping America`s businesses--both small and large--compete in the global marketplace while protecting the nations environment and conserving its resources.

  9. The Y-12 Plant - a model for environmental excellence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy`s Y-12 Plant, located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, occupies more than 800 acres and has a work force of over 4,000 employees. The Y-12 Plant is managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of Martin Marietta Corporation. Although mission emphases at the Y-12 Plant have evolved and changed with the easing of international tensions, the Plant continues to serve as a key manufacturing unit and technology demonstration center for the Department of Energy and the nation. The Y-12 Plant has undergone many changes in the last 14 years. One of the most dramatic changes has occurred in the environmental programs with measurable improvements in environmental quality, the development of an award-winning pollution prevention program, and the institution of an environmentally-conscious work ethic among the work force. Because the plant is committed to achieving excellence, not just compliance with laws and regulations, a highly structured, multimedia environmental management program is in place. This program, combined with a commitment to protect the environment while striving for continued improvement, has placed Y-12 in the position to reach excellence. As a result of the Y-12 Plant`s changing mission, they are now working closely with American industry through technology transfer to share their experiences and {open_quotes}lessons learned{close_quotes}--including environmental and pollution prevention technology. To facilitate this effort, the Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology has been established at the Y-12 Plant. Through the Centers, the Oak Ridge staff applies skills, capabilities, and facilities developed over a 50-year history of the Oak Ridge Complex to a variety of peacetime missions. The services found at the Centers are a key to helping America`s businesses--both small and large--compete in the global marketplace while protecting the nations environment and conserving its resources.

  10. Modelling environmental change in Europe: towards a model inventory (SEIS/Forward)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Annekathrin; Henrichs, Thomas

    This technical report provides a non-exhaustive overview of modelling tools currently available to simulate future environmental change at a European scale. Modelling tools have become an important cornerstone of environmental assessments, and play an important role in providing the data...... and indicators needed to describe the state of, trends in and prospects of the environment. The report presents a general characterisation of environmental models based on the themes covered, the geographical coverage and the analytical structure of the respective models. A pool of some 80 models is introduced......, many of which have been used by the European Environment Agency in its recent environmental assessments and reports, a limited number of which are described in more detail. This review identifies gaps in the availability, accessibility and applicability of current modelling tools, and stresses the need...

  11. Routine Discovery of Complex Genetic Models using Genetic Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Jason H; Hahn, Lance W; Ritchie, Marylyn D; Thornton, Tricia A; White, Bill C

    2004-02-01

    Simulation studies are useful in various disciplines for a number of reasons including the development and evaluation of new computational and statistical methods. This is particularly true in human genetics and genetic epidemiology where new analytical methods are needed for the detection and characterization of disease susceptibility genes whose effects are complex, nonlinear, and partially or solely dependent on the effects of other genes (i.e. epistasis or gene-gene interaction). Despite this need, the development of complex genetic models that can be used to simulate data is not always intuitive. In fact, only a few such models have been published. We have previously developed a genetic algorithm approach to discovering complex genetic models in which two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) influence disease risk solely through nonlinear interactions. In this paper, we extend this approach for the discovery of high-order epistasis models involving three to five SNPs. We demonstrate that the genetic algorithm is capable of routinely discovering interesting high-order epistasis models in which each SNP influences risk of disease only through interactions with the other SNPs in the model. This study opens the door for routine simulation of complex gene-gene interactions among SNPs for the development and evaluation of new statistical and computational approaches for identifying common, complex multifactorial disease susceptibility genes.

  12. Geometric modeling of subcellular structures, organelles, and multiprotein complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xin; Xia, Kelin; Tong, Yiying; Wei, Guo-Wei

    2013-01-01

    SUMMARY Recently, the structure, function, stability, and dynamics of subcellular structures, organelles, and multi-protein complexes have emerged as a leading interest in structural biology. Geometric modeling not only provides visualizations of shapes for large biomolecular complexes but also fills the gap between structural information and theoretical modeling, and enables the understanding of function, stability, and dynamics. This paper introduces a suite of computational tools for volumetric data processing, information extraction, surface mesh rendering, geometric measurement, and curvature estimation of biomolecular complexes. Particular emphasis is given to the modeling of cryo-electron microscopy data. Lagrangian-triangle meshes are employed for the surface presentation. On the basis of this representation, algorithms are developed for surface area and surface-enclosed volume calculation, and curvature estimation. Methods for volumetric meshing have also been presented. Because the technological development in computer science and mathematics has led to multiple choices at each stage of the geometric modeling, we discuss the rationales in the design and selection of various algorithms. Analytical models are designed to test the computational accuracy and convergence of proposed algorithms. Finally, we select a set of six cryo-electron microscopy data representing typical subcellular complexes to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms in handling biomolecular surfaces and explore their capability of geometric characterization of binding targets. This paper offers a comprehensive protocol for the geometric modeling of subcellular structures, organelles, and multiprotein complexes. PMID:23212797

  13. Between complexity of modelling and modelling of complexity: An essay on econophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinckus, C.

    2013-09-01

    Econophysics is an emerging field dealing with complex systems and emergent properties. A deeper analysis of themes studied by econophysicists shows that research conducted in this field can be decomposed into two different computational approaches: “statistical econophysics” and “agent-based econophysics”. This methodological scission complicates the definition of the complexity used in econophysics. Therefore, this article aims to clarify what kind of emergences and complexities we can find in econophysics in order to better understand, on one hand, the current scientific modes of reasoning this new field provides; and on the other hand, the future methodological evolution of the field.

  14. Evaluation and cross-validation of Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaire, Joseph

    Before scientific models (statistical or empirical models based on experimental measurements; physical or mathematical models) can be proposed and selected as ISO Environmental Standards, a Commission of professional experts appointed by an established International Union or Association (e.g. IAGA for Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, . . . ) should have been able to study, document, evaluate and validate the best alternative models available at a given epoch. Examples will be given, indicating that different values for the Earth radius have been employed in different data processing laboratories, institutes or agencies, to process, analyse or retrieve series of experimental observations. Furthermore, invariant magnetic coordinates like B and L, commonly used in the study of Earth's radiation belts fluxes and for their mapping, differ from one space mission data center to the other, from team to team, and from country to country. Worse, users of empirical models generally fail to use the original magnetic model which had been employed to compile B and L , and thus to build these environmental models. These are just some flagrant examples of inconsistencies and misuses identified so far; there are probably more of them to be uncovered by careful, independent examination and benchmarking. A meter prototype, the standard unit length that has been determined on 20 May 1875, during the Diplomatic Conference of the Meter, and deposited at the BIPM (Bureau International des Poids et Mesures). In the same token, to coordinate and safeguard progress in the field of Space Weather, similar initiatives need to be undertaken, to prevent wild, uncontrolled dissemination of pseudo Environmental Models and Standards. Indeed, unless validation tests have been performed, there is guaranty, a priori, that all models on the market place have been built consistently with the same units system, and that they are based on identical definitions for the coordinates systems, etc... Therefore

  15. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite......Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... plans, etc. In this article an integrated model system is extended to include emissions of the greenhouse gasses, CH4 and N2O and the acidifying substance, NH3, from the Danish agricultural production. The model system comprises a macroeconomic model of the Danish economy, a Danish agricultural sector...

  16. Stochastic simulation of HIV population dynamics through complex network modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloot, P.M.A.; Ivanov, S.V.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.; van de Vijver, D.A.M.C.; Boucher, C.A.B.

    2008-01-01

    We propose a new way to model HIV infection spreading through the use of dynamic complex networks. The heterogeneous population of HIV exposure groups is described through a unique network degree probability distribution. The time evolution of the network nodes is modelled by a Markov process and

  17. Stochastic simulation of HIV population dynamics through complex network modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloot, P. M. A.; Ivanov, S. V.; Boukhanovsky, A. V.; van de Vijver, D. A. M. C.; Boucher, C. A. B.

    We propose a new way to model HIV infection spreading through the use of dynamic complex networks. The heterogeneous population of HIV exposure groups is described through a unique network degree probability distribution. The time evolution of the network nodes is modelled by a Markov process and

  18. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Wasiolek

    2004-09-10

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain, Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment for the license application (TSPA-LA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA-LA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]) (TWP). This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA). This report is one of the five reports that develop input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the conceptual model and the mathematical model. The input parameter reports, shown to the right of the Biosphere Model Report in Figure 1-1, contain detailed description of the model input parameters. The output of this report is used as direct input in the ''Nominal Performance Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' and in the ''Disruptive Event Biosphere Dose Conversion Factor Analysis'' that calculate the values of biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs) for the groundwater and volcanic ash exposure scenarios, respectively. The purpose of this analysis was to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or in volcanic ash). The analysis

  19. Hydrologic analyses in support of the Navajo Generating Station–Kayenta Mine Complex environmental impact statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leake, Stanley A.; Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-06-01

    IntroductionThe U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region (Reclamation) is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) for the Navajo Generating Station-Kayenta Mine Complex Project (NGS-KMC Project). The proposed project involves various Federal approvals that would facilitate continued operation of the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) from December 23, 2019 through 2044, and continued operation of the Kayenta Mine and support facilities (collectively called the Kayenta Mine Complex, or KMC) to supply coal to the NGS for this operational period. The EIS will consider several project alternatives that are likely to produce different effects on the Navajo (N) aquifer; the N aquifer is the principal water resource in the Black Mesa area used by the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, and Peabody Western Coal Company (PWCC).The N aquifer is composed of three hydraulically connected formations—the Navajo Sandstone, the Kayenta Formation, and the Lukachukai Member of the Wingate Sandstone—that function as a single aquifer. The N aquifer is confined under most of Black Mesa, and the overlying stratigraphy limits recharge to this part of the aquifer. The N aquifer is unconfined in areas surrounding Black Mesa, and most recharge occurs where the Navajo Sandstone is exposed in the area near Shonto, Arizona. Overlying the N aquifer is the D aquifer, which includes the Dakota Sandstone, Morrison Formation, Entrada Sandstone, and Carmel Formation. The aquifer is named for the Dakota Sandstone, which is the primary water-bearing unit.The NGS is located near Page, Arizona on the Navajo Nation. The KMC, which delivers coal to NGS by way of a dedicated electric railroad, is located approximately 83 miles southeast of NGS (about 125 miles northeast of Flagstaff, Arizona). The Kayenta Mine permit area is located on about 44,073 acres of land leased within the boundaries of the Hopi and Navajo Indian Reservations. KMC has been conducting mining and

  20. Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

    2016-04-01

    With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions.

  1. Hydrogeochemical modeling of groundwater chemical environmental evolution in Hebei Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭永海; 沈照理; 钟佐燊

    1997-01-01

    Using the hydrogeochemical modeling method, the groundwater chemical environmental problems of the Hebei Plain which involve increasing of hardness and total dissolved solids in piedmont area and mixing of saline water with fresh water in middle-eastern area are studied. The water-rock interactions and mass transfer along a ground-water flow path and in mixing processes are calculated. Thus the evolution mechanisms of the groundwater chemical environment are brought to light.

  2. Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

    2017-08-01

    The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

  3. Experimental porcine model of complex fistula-in-ano

    Science.gov (United States)

    A Ba-Bai-Ke-Re, Ma-Mu-Ti-Jiang; Chen, Hui; Liu, Xue; Wang, Yun-Hai

    2017-01-01

    AIM To establish and evaluate an experimental porcine model of fistula-in-ano. METHODS Twelve healthy pigs were randomly divided into two groups. Under general anesthesia, the experimental group underwent rubber band ligation surgery, and the control group underwent an artificial damage technique. Clinical magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and histopathological evaluation were performed on the 38th d and 48th d after surgery in both groups, respectively. RESULTS There were no significant differences between the experimental group and the control group in general characteristics such as body weight, gender, and the number of fistula (P > 0.05). In the experimental group, 15 fistulas were confirmed clinically, 13 complex fistulas were confirmed by MRI, and 11 complex fistulas were confirmed by histopathology. The success rate in the porcine complex fistula model establishment was 83.33%. Among the 18 fistulas in the control group, 5 fistulas were confirmed clinically, 4 complex fistulas were confirmed by MRI, and 3 fistulas were confirmed by histopathology. The success rate in the porcine fistula model establishment was 27.78%. Thus, the success rate of the rubber band ligation group was significantly higher than the control group (P fistula-in-ano models. Large animal models of complex anal fistulas can be used for the diagnosis and treatment of anal fistulas. PMID:28348488

  4. Pedigree models for complex human traits involving the mitochrondrial genome

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schork, N.J.; Guo, S.W. (Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States))

    1993-12-01

    Recent biochemical and molecular-genetic discoveries concerning variations in human mtDNA have suggested a role for mtDNA mutations in a number of human traits and disorders. Although the importance of these discoveries cannot be emphasized enough, the complex natures of mitochondrial biogenesis, mutant mtDNA phenotype expression, and the maternal inheritance pattern exhibited by mtDNA transmission make it difficult to develop models that can be used routinely in pedigree analyses to quantify and test hypotheses about the role of mtDNA in the expression of a trait. In the present paper, the authors describe complexities inherent in mitochondrial biogenesis and genetic transmission and show how these complexities can be incorporated into appropriate mathematical models. The authors offer a variety of likelihood-based models which account for the complexities discussed. The derivation of the models is meant to stimulate the construction of statistical tests for putative mtDNA contribution to a trait. Results of simulation studies which make use of the proposed models are described. The results of the simulation studies suggest that, although pedigree models of mtDNA effects can be reliable, success in mapping chromosomal determinants of a trait does not preclude the possibility that mtDNA determinants exist for the trait as well. Shortcomings inherent in the proposed models are described in an effort to expose areas in need of additional research. 58 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

  5. Integrated modeling and 3D visualization for mine complex fields

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Zhong-xue; SUN En-ji; LI Cui-ping; MA Bin

    2007-01-01

    Proposed a novel approach to the problem of mine complex fields in a perspective of digital modeling and visual representation, and it aimed at developing a theoretical framework for mine complex fields with the factors and their relationships delineated in a unified manner and at building a prototype for an integrated system of methods, models,and techniques with mine complex fields modeled digitally and represented visually. Specifically, the paper addressed the issues of data mining and knowledge discovery techniques as used in the processing of geological and ore deposit samples, digital modeling techniques as used in the description of mine complex fields, 3D visual simulation techniques as used in the representation of ore bodies and underground excavations, seamless interfacing techniques with other systems such as CAD and web GIS as used in the restructuring of 2D data into 3D models and mapping of 3D models onto 2D graphics, and implementation techniques as used in the case of building a web based prototype system for the integrated modeling and visualization of underground mines.

  6. Emulator-assisted data assimilation in complex models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margvelashvili, Nugzar Yu; Herzfeld, Mike; Rizwi, Farhan; Mongin, Mathieu; Baird, Mark E.; Jones, Emlyn; Schaffelke, Britta; King, Edward; Schroeder, Thomas

    2016-09-01

    Emulators are surrogates of complex models that run orders of magnitude faster than the original model. The utility of emulators for the data assimilation into ocean models is still not well understood. High complexity of ocean models translates into high uncertainty of the corresponding emulators which may undermine the quality of the assimilation schemes based on such emulators. Numerical experiments with a chaotic Lorenz-95 model are conducted to illustrate this point and suggest a strategy to alleviate this problem through the localization of the emulation and data assimilation procedures. Insights gained through these experiments are used to design and implement data assimilation scenario for a 3D fine-resolution sediment transport model of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia.

  7. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  8. Dynamics of toxic genotypes of Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC) through a wide freshwater to marine environmental gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez de la Escalera, Gabriela; Kruk, Carla; Segura, Angel M; Nogueira, Lucía; Alcántara, Ignacio; Piccini, Claudia

    2017-02-01

    Bloom-forming species belonging to Microcystis aeruginosa complex (MAC) are the most commonly reported worldwide. MAC blooms are composed by toxic and non-toxic genotypes and the environmental conditions favouring the dominance of toxic genotypes are still a matter of debate among the scientific community. In this study, we evaluated the distribution of toxic MAC genotypes along a seasonal cycle and over an environmental gradient spanning 800km, from a eutrophic freshwater reservoir in Río Uruguay to marine water in the outer limit of Río de la Plata. Abundance of four mcy genes, mcyB, mcyD, mcyE and mcyJ was determined by qPCR and used as a proxy of abundance of toxic MAC genotypes. All the mcy genes were detected through the seasonal cycle at all sampling sites, being systematically higher in the freshwater reservoir and decreasing towards the marine site. The highest toxic genotype abundance was found during the austral summer months. According to generalized linear regressions and random forest models, temperature and conductivity were the most relevant explanatory variables. This suggests that although toxic MAC genotypes grow optimally in freshwater, they are also able to tolerate the high-salinity and low temperature conditions found in estuarine and marine waters. This ability to resist harsh conditions impose a health risk and a management challenge. To our knowledge, this is the first report addressing several mcy genes in a broad gradient that includes a wide array of different environmental conditions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Forecasting the behaviour of complex landslides with a spatially distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Malet

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationships between rainfall, hydrology and landslide movement are often difficult to establish. In this context, ground-water flow analyses and dynamic modelling can help to clarify these complex relations, simulate the landslide hydrological behaviour in real or hypothetical situations, and help to forecast future scenarios based on environmental change. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the possibility of including more temporal and spatial information in landslide hydrology forecasting, by using a physically based spatially distributed model. Results of the hydrological and geomorphological investigation of the Super-Sauze earthflow, one of the persistently active landslide occurring in clay-rich material of the French Alps, are presented. Field surveys, continuous monitoring and interpretation of the data have shown that, in such material, the groundwater level fluctuates on a seasonal time scale, with a strong influence of the unsaturated zone. Therefore a coupled unsaturated/saturated model, incorporating Darcian saturated flow, fissure flow and meltwater flow is needed to adequately represent the landslide hydrology. The conceptual model is implemented in a 2.5-D spatially distributed hydrological model. The model is calibrated and validated on a multi-parameters database acquired on the site since 1997. The complex time-dependent and three-dimensional groundwater regime is well described, in both the short- and long-term. The hydrological model is used to forecast the future hydrological behaviour of the earthflow in response to potential environmental changes.

  10. Minimal model for complex dynamics in cellular processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suguna, C; Chowdhury, K K; Sinha, S

    1999-11-01

    Cellular functions are controlled and coordinated by the complex circuitry of biochemical pathways regulated by genetic and metabolic feedback processes. This paper aims to show, with the help of a minimal model of a regulated biochemical pathway, that the common nonlinearities and control structures present in biomolecular interactions are capable of eliciting a variety of functional dynamics, such as homeostasis, periodic, complex, and chaotic oscillations, including transients, that are observed in various cellular processes.

  11. Calcium-Amidoborane-Ammine Complexes : Thermal Decomposition of Model Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harder, Sjoerd; Spielmann, Jan; Tobey, Briac

    2012-01-01

    Hydrocarbon-soluble model systems for the calcium-amidoborane-ammine complex Ca(NH2BH3)2.(NH3)2 were prepared and structurally characterized. The following complexes were obtained by the reaction of RNH2BH3 (R=H, Me, iPr, DIPP; DIPP=2,6-diisopropylphenyl) with Ca(DIPP-nacnac)(NH2).(NH3)2 (DIPP-nacna

  12. Calcium-Amidoborane-Ammine Complexes : Thermal Decomposition of Model Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harder, Sjoerd; Spielmann, Jan; Tobey, Briac

    2012-01-01

    Hydrocarbon-soluble model systems for the calcium-amidoborane-ammine complex Ca(NH2BH3)2.(NH3)2 were prepared and structurally characterized. The following complexes were obtained by the reaction of RNH2BH3 (R=H, Me, iPr, DIPP; DIPP=2,6-diisopropylphenyl) with Ca(DIPP-nacnac)(NH2).(NH3)2 (DIPP-nacna

  13. A Knowledge base model for complex forging die machining

    OpenAIRE

    Mawussi, Kwamiwi; Tapie, Laurent

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Recent evolutions on forging process induce more complex shape on forging die. These evolutions, combined with High Speed Machining (HSM) process of forging die lead to important increase in time for machining preparation. In this context, an original approach for generating machining process based on machining knowledge is proposed in this paper. The core of this approach is to decompose a CAD model of complex forging die in geometric features. Technological data and ...

  14. Complex groundwater flow systems as traveling agent models

    CERN Document Server

    López-Corona, Oliver; Escolero, Oscar; González, Tomás; Morales-Casique, Eric

    2014-01-01

    Analyzing field data from pumping tests, we show that as with many other natural phenomena, groundwater flow exhibits a complex dynamics described by 1/f power spectrum. This result is theoretically studied within an agent perspective. Using a traveling agent model, we prove that this statistical behavior emerges when the medium is complex. Some heuristic reasoning is provided to justify both spatial and dynamic complexity, as the result of the superposition of an infinite number of stochastic processes. Even more, we show that this implies that non-Kolmogorovian probability is needed for its study, and provide a set of new partial differential equations for groundwater flow.

  15. How much physical complexity is needed to model flood inundation?

    OpenAIRE

    Neal, J.; Bates, P; Villanueva, I; Wright, N.; Willis, T; Fewtrell, T

    2011-01-01

    Two-dimensional flood inundation models are widely used tools for flood hazard mapping and an essential component of statutory flood risk management guidelines in many countries. Yet, we still do not know how much physical complexity a flood inundation model needs for a given problem. Here, three two-dimensional explicit hydraulic models, which can be broadly defined as simulating diffusive, inertial or shallow water waves, have been benchmarked using test cases from a recent Environment Agen...

  16. A dynamic epidemic control model on uncorrelated complex networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Pei Wei-Dong; Chen Zeng-Qiang; Yuan Zhu-Zhi

    2008-01-01

    In this paper,a dynamic epidemic control model on the uncorrelated complex networks is proposed.By means of theoretical analysis,we found that the new model has a similar epidemic threshold as that of the susceptible-infectedrecovered (SIR) model on the above networks,but it can reduce the prevalence of the infected individuals remarkably.This result may help us understand epidemic spreading phenomena on real networks and design appropriate strategies to control infections.

  17. A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gettings, M.E.; Bultman, M.W.; Fisher, F.S.

    2004-01-01

    For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized. The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,-1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios.

  18. Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

    2010-01-01

    Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required

  19. M-X Environmental Technical Report. Public Finance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-22

    7AD-A095 802 HENNINGSON DURHAM AND RICHARDSON SANTA 1BAR1BARA CA - UF/A 16/1 MA -x E VIRONMENT L fECHN AL REPORT. PUBLIC FINANCE MODEL. U) DEC A0...CATALOG NUMBER 4. TITLE (and Subtitle) 5. PERIOD COVERED-........... . Final1 M-X Environmental Technical Report, Public Finance Model , 6. PERFORMING ORG...KEY WORDS (Continue on reverse side If necessary and Identify by block number) Public Finance Texas iting Analysis Nevada New Mexico viromnental Report

  20. Animal models of peripheral neuropathy due to environmental toxicants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Deepa B; Jortner, Bernard S; Sills, Robert C

    2014-01-01

    Despite the progress in our understanding of pathogeneses and the identification of etiologies of peripheral neuropathy, idiopathic neuropathy remains common. Typically, attention to peripheral neuropathies resulting from exposure to environmental agents is limited relative to more commonly diagnosed causes of peripheral neuropathy (diabetes and chemotherapeutic agents). Given that there are more than 80,000 chemicals in commerce registered with the Environmental Protection Agency and that at least 1000 chemicals are known to have neurotoxic potential, very few chemicals have been established to affect the peripheral nervous system (mainly after occupational exposures). A wide spectrum of exposures, including pesticides, metals, solvents, nutritional sources, and pharmaceutical agents, has been related, both historically and recently, to environmental toxicant-induced peripheral neuropathy. A review of the literature shows that the toxicity and pathogeneses of chemicals adversely affecting the peripheral nervous system have been studied using animal models. This article includes an overview of five prototypical environmental agents known to cause peripheral neuropathy--namely, organophosphates, carbon disulfide, pyridoxine (Vitamin B6), acrylamide, and hexacarbons (mainly n-hexane, 2,5-hexanedione, methyl n-butyl ketone). Also included is a brief introduction to the structural components of the peripheral nervous system and pointers on common methodologies for histopathologic evaluation of the peripheral nerves.

  1. Nostradamus 2014 prediction, modeling and analysis of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Suganthan, Ponnuthurai; Chen, Guanrong; Snasel, Vaclav; Abraham, Ajith; Rössler, Otto

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted ...

  2. The effects of indoor environmental exposures on pediatric asthma: a discrete event simulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabian M Patricia

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the United States, asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood across all socioeconomic classes and is the most frequent cause of hospitalization among children. Asthma exacerbations have been associated with exposure to residential indoor environmental stressors such as allergens and air pollutants as well as numerous additional factors. Simulation modeling is a valuable tool that can be used to evaluate interventions for complex multifactorial diseases such as asthma but in spite of its flexibility and applicability, modeling applications in either environmental exposures or asthma have been limited to date. Methods We designed a discrete event simulation model to study the effect of environmental factors on asthma exacerbations in school-age children living in low-income multi-family housing. Model outcomes include asthma symptoms, medication use, hospitalizations, and emergency room visits. Environmental factors were linked to percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1%, which in turn was linked to risk equations for each outcome. Exposures affecting FEV1% included indoor and outdoor sources of NO2 and PM2.5, cockroach allergen, and dampness as a proxy for mold. Results Model design parameters and equations are described in detail. We evaluated the model by simulating 50,000 children over 10 years and showed that pollutant concentrations and health outcome rates are comparable to values reported in the literature. In an application example, we simulated what would happen if the kitchen and bathroom exhaust fans were improved for the entire cohort, and showed reductions in pollutant concentrations and healthcare utilization rates. Conclusions We describe the design and evaluation of a discrete event simulation model of pediatric asthma for children living in low-income multi-family housing. Our model simulates the effect of environmental factors (combustion pollutants and allergens

  3. Support vector regression model for complex target RCS predicting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Gu; Chen Weishi; Miao Jungang

    2009-01-01

    The electromagnetic scattering computation has developed rapidly for many years; some computing problems for complex and coated targets cannot be solved by using the existing theory and computing models. A computing model based on data is established for making up the insufficiency of theoretic models. Based on the "support vector regression method", which is formulated on the principle of minimizing a structural risk, a data model to predicate the unknown radar cross section of some appointed targets is given. Comparison between the actual data and the results of this predicting model based on support vector regression method proved that the support vector regression method is workable and with a comparative precision.

  4. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  5. Modeling Of Construction Noise For Environmental Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed F. Hamoda

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This study measured the noise levels generated at different construction sites in reference to the stage of construction and the equipment used, and examined the methods to predict such noise in order to assess the environmental impact of noise. It included 33 construction sites in Kuwait and used artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of noise. A back-propagation neural network (BPNN model was compared with a general regression neural network (GRNN model. The results obtained indicated that the mean equivalent noise level was 78.7 dBA which exceeds the threshold limit. The GRNN model was superior to the BPNN model in its accuracy of predicting construction noise due to its ability to train quickly on sparse data sets. Over 93% of the predictions were within 5% of the observed values. The mean absolute error between the predicted and observed data was only 2 dBA. The ANN modeling proved to be a useful technique for noise predictions required in the assessment of environmental impact of construction activities.

  6. Manifold boundaries give "gray-box" approximations of complex models

    CERN Document Server

    Transtrum, Mark K

    2016-01-01

    We discuss a method of parameter reduction in complex models known as the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM). This approach, based on a geometric interpretation of statistics, maps the model reduction problem to a geometric approximation problem. It operates iteratively, removing one parameter at a time, by approximating a high-dimension, but thin manifold by its boundary. Although the method makes no explicit assumption about the functional form of the model, it does require that the model manifold exhibit a hierarchy of boundaries, i.e., faces, edges, corners, hyper-corners, etc. We empirically show that a variety of model classes have this curious feature, making them amenable to MBAM. These model classes include models composed of elementary functions (e.g., rational functions, exponentials, and partition functions), a variety of dynamical system (e.g., chemical and biochemical kinetics, Linear Time Invariant (LTI) systems, and compartment models), network models (e.g., Bayesian networks, Marko...

  7. Infinite multiple membership relational modeling for complex networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2011-01-01

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiple-membership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to exist......Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiple-membership latent feature model for networks. Contrary...... to existing multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposed model scales linearly in the number of links admitting multiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership...

  8. Hierarchical Model for the Evolution of Cloud Complexes

    CERN Document Server

    Sánchez, N; Sanchez, Nestor; Parravano, Antonio

    1999-01-01

    The structure of cloud complexes appears to be well described by a "tree structure" representation when the image is partitioned into "clouds". In this representation, the parent-child relationships are assigned according to containment. Based on this picture, a hierarchical model for the evolution of Cloud Complexes, including star formation, is constructed, that follows the mass evolution of each sub-structure by computing its mass exchange (evaporation or condensation) with its parent and children, which depends on the radiation density at the interphase. For the set of parameters used as a reference model, the system produces IMFs with a maximum at too high mass (~2 M_sun) and the characteristic times for evolution seem too long. We show that these properties can be improved by adjusting model parameters. However, the emphasis here is to illustrate some general properties of this nonlinear model for the star formation process. Notwithstanding the simplifications involved, the model reveals an essential fe...

  9. Complex human activities recognition using interval temporal syntactic model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏利民; 韩芬; 王军

    2016-01-01

    A novel method based on interval temporal syntactic model was proposed to recognize human activities in video flow. The method is composed of two parts: feature extract and activities recognition. Trajectory shape descriptor, speeded up robust features (SURF) and histograms of optical flow (HOF) were proposed to represent human activities, which provide more exhaustive information to describe human activities on shape, structure and motion. In the process of recognition, a probabilistic latent semantic analysis model (PLSA) was used to recognize sample activities at the first step. Then, an interval temporal syntactic model, which combines the syntactic model with the interval algebra to model the temporal dependencies of activities explicitly, was introduced to recognize the complex activities with a time relationship. Experiments results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in comparison with other state-of-the-art methods on the public databases for the recognition of complex activities.

  10. Turing instability in reaction-diffusion models on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ide, Yusuke; Izuhara, Hirofumi; Machida, Takuya

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, the Turing instability in reaction-diffusion models defined on complex networks is studied. Here, we focus on three types of models which generate complex networks, i.e. the Erdős-Rényi, the Watts-Strogatz, and the threshold network models. From analysis of the Laplacian matrices of graphs generated by these models, we numerically reveal that stable and unstable regions of a homogeneous steady state on the parameter space of two diffusion coefficients completely differ, depending on the network architecture. In addition, we theoretically discuss the stable and unstable regions in the cases of regular enhanced ring lattices which include regular circles, and networks generated by the threshold network model when the number of vertices is large enough.

  11. Modelling the interactions between regional farming structure, nitrogen losses and environmental regulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Happe, Kathrin; Hutchings, Nick; Dalgaard, Tommy;

    2011-01-01

    Changes in the structure of agriculture are known to affect emissions of environmental pollutants from agriculture. Such changes are often driven by structural changes in agricultural production, so structural changes are likely to have indirect effects on emissions. In a pilot study, we consider...... how linking two complementary simulation models might be used to explore these effects. The agent-based AgriPoliS model was used to simulate the structural dynamics of agricultural production. The results from AgriPoliS were passed via a number of intermediate models to the Farm-N model, which...... was used to estimate the nitrogen surplus and losses from each farm for each year. The modelling complex was exercised by simulating the effects of two plausible policy scenarios for each of 14 years. The initial sizes and types of farms were based on statistics from a region in Denmark and the farms were...

  12. Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen-Smith, Norman

    2011-07-01

    1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and

  13. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Yang, Yize Sun, Yang Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8 m/s, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000 W/m2. Root mean square error (RMSE between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  14. Modelling nutrient reduction targets - model structure complexity vs. data availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capell, Rene; Lausten Hansen, Anne; Donnelly, Chantal; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    In most parts of Europe, macronutrient concentrations and loads in surface water are currently affected by human land use and land management choices. Moreover, current macronutrient concentration and load levels often violate European Water Framework Directive (WFD) targets and effective measures to reduce these levels are sought after by water managers. Identifying such effective measures in specific target catchments should consider the four key processes release, transport, retention, and removal, and thus physical catchment characteristics as e.g. soils and geomorphology, but also management data such as crop distribution and fertilizer application regimes. The BONUS funded research project Soils2Sea evaluates new, differentiated regulation strategies to cost-efficiently reduce nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea based on new knowledge of nutrient transport and retention processes between soils and the coast. Within the Soils2Sea framework, we here examine the capability of two integrated hydrological and nutrient transfer models, HYPE and Mike SHE, to model runoff and nitrate flux responses in the 100 km2 Norsminde catchment, Denmark, comparing different model structures and data bases. We focus on comparing modelled nitrate reductions within and below the root zone, and evaluate model performances as function of available model structures (process representation within the model) and available data bases (temporal forcing data and spatial information). This model evaluation is performed to aid in the development of model tools which will be used to estimate the effect of new nutrient reduction measures on the catchment to regional scale, where available data - both climate forcing and land management - typically are increasingly limited with the targeted spatial scale and may act as a bottleneck for process conceptualizations and thus the value of a model as tool to provide decision support for differentiated regulation strategies.

  15. The Complexity of Model Checking Higher-Order Fixpoint Logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Axelsson, Roland; Lange, Martin; Somla, Rafal

    2007-01-01

    of solving rather large parity games of small index. As a consequence of this we obtain an ExpTime upper bound on the expression complexity of each HFLk,m. The lower bound is established by a reduction from the word problem for alternating (k-1)-fold exponential space bounded Turing Machines. As a corollary...... provides complexity results for its model checking problem. In particular we consider its fragments HFLk,m which are formed using types of bounded order k and arity m only. We establish k-ExpTime-completeness for model checking each HFLk,m fragment. For the upper bound we reduce the problem to the problem...

  16. Chaos and complexity in a simple model of production dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Katzorke

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider complex dynamical behavior in a simple model of production dynamics, based on the Wiendahl’s funnel approach. In the case of continuous order flow a model of three parallel funnels reduces to the one-dimensional Bernoulli-type map, and demonstrates strong chaotic properties. The optimization of production costs is possible with the OGY method of chaos control. The dynamics changes drastically in the case of discrete order flow. We discuss different dynamical behaviors, the complexity and the stability of this discrete system.

  17. Using Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Practices to Address Scientific Misunderstandings Around Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Kenna, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    The new NGSS provide an important opportunity for scientists to develop curriculum that links the practice of science to research-based data in order to improve understanding in areas of science that are both complex and confusing. Our curriculum focuses in particular on the fate and transport of anthropogenic radionuclides. Radioactivity, both naturally occurring and anthropogenic, is highly debated and largely misunderstood, and for large sections of the population is a source of scientific misunderstanding. Developed as part of the international GEOTRACES project which focuses on identifying ocean processes and quantifying fluxes that control the distributions of selected trace elements and isotopes in the ocean, and on establishing the sensitivity of these distributions to changing environmental conditions, the curriculum topic fits nicely into the applied focus of NGSS with both environmental and topical relevance. Our curriculum design focuses on small group discussion driven by questions, yet unlike more traditional curriculum pieces these are not questions posed to the students, rather they are questions posed by the students to facilitate their deeper understanding. Our curriculum design challenges the traditional question/answer memorization approach to instruction as we strive to develop an educational approach that supports the practice of science as well as the NGSS Cross Cutting Concepts and the Science & Engineering Practices. Our goal is for students to develop a methodology they can employ when faced with a complex scientific issue. Through background readings and team discussions they identify what type of information is important for them to know and where to find a reliable source for that information. Framing their discovery around key questions such as "What type of radioactive decay are we dealing with?", "What is the potential half-life of the isotope?", and "What are the pathways of transport of radioactivity?" allows students to evaluate a

  18. Surface Complexation Modeling in Variable Charge Soils: Charge Characterization by Potentiometric Titration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Marchi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants of 17 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from potentiometric titration measuring the adsorption of H+ and OH− on amphoteric surfaces in suspensions of varying ionic strength. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. The former was fitted by calculating total site concentration from curve fitting estimates and pH-extrapolation of the intrinsic equilibrium constants to the PZNPC (hand calculation, considering one and two reactive sites, and by the FITEQL software. The latter was fitted only by FITEQL, with one reactive site. Soil chemical and physical properties were correlated to the intrinsic equilibrium constants. Both surface complexation models satisfactorily fit our experimental data, but for results at low ionic strength, optimization did not converge in FITEQL. Data were incorporated in Visual MINTEQ and they provide a modeling system that can predict protonation-dissociation reactions in the soil surface under changing environmental conditions.

  19. Thermal Residual Stress in Environmental Barrier Coated Silicon Nitride - Modeled

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Abdul-Aziz; Bhatt, Ramakrishna T.

    2009-01-01

    When exposed to combustion environments containing moisture both un-reinforced and fiber reinforced silicon based ceramic materials tend to undergo surface recession. To avoid surface recession environmental barrier coating systems are required. However, due to differences in the elastic and thermal properties of the substrate and the environmental barrier coating, thermal residual stresses can be generated in the coated substrate. Depending on their magnitude and nature thermal residual stresses can have significant influence on the strength and fracture behavior of coated substrates. To determine the maximum residual stresses developed during deposition of the coatings, a finite element model (FEM) was developed. Using this model, the thermal residual stresses were predicted in silicon nitride substrates coated with three environmental coating systems namely barium strontium aluminum silicate (BSAS), rare earth mono silicate (REMS) and earth mono di-silicate (REDS). A parametric study was also conducted to determine the influence of coating layer thickness and material parameters on thermal residual stress. Results indicate that z-direction stresses in all three systems are small and negligible, but maximum in-plane stresses can be significant depending on the composition of the constituent layer and the distance from the substrate. The BSAS and REDS systems show much lower thermal residual stresses than REMS system. Parametric analysis indicates that in each system, the thermal residual stresses can be decreased with decreasing the modulus and thickness of the coating.

  20. Immunogenetic basis of environmental lung disease: Lessons from the berylliosis model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saltini, C.; Richeldi, L. [Univ. di Modena, Dept. di Scienze Mediche, Modena (Italy); Amicosante, M. [Univ. di Roma `Tor Vergata`, Dept. di Biologia, Roma (Italy); Franchi, A. [Univ. de Modena, Dept. Medicina Interna, Modena (Italy); Lombardi, G. [Hammersmith Hospital, Dept. of Immunology, London (United Kingdom)

    1998-12-01

    The role of genetic factors has been hypothesized in the pathogenesis of a number of chronic inflammatory lung diseases. The genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) locus on human chromosome 6 have been identified as important determinants in diseases caused both by inorganic and organic compounds such as beryllium, gold, acid anhydrides, isocyanates and grass pollens. Since many environmental factors are the determinants of the immunopathogenesis of asthma, pulmonary granulomatous disorders, hypersensitivity pneumonitis and fibrotic lung disorders, an understanding of the interaction between environmental factors is crucial to epidemiology, prevention and treatment of these disorders. Berylliosis is an environmental chronic inflammatory disorder of the lung caused by inhalation of beryllium dusts. A human leukocyte antigen class II marker (HLA-DP Glu69) has been found to be strongly associated with the disease. In in vitro studies, the gene has been shown to play a direct role in the immunopathogenesis of the disease. In human studies, the gene has been shown to confer increased susceptibility to beryllium in exposed workers, thus suggesting that HLA gene markers may be used as epidemiological probes to identify population groups at higher risk of environmental lung diseases, to identify environmental levels of lung immunotoxicants that would be safe for the entire population and the prevent disease risk associated with occupation, manufactured products and the environment. Studies on the associations between human leukocyte antigens and chronic inflammatory lung disorders are reviewed in the context of the berylliosis model. (au) 123 refs.

  1. The Relationship between the Environmental Awareness, Environmental Attitude, Curiosity and Exploration in Highly Gifted Students: Structural Equation Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Saricam

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The basic purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between environmental awareness, environmental attitude, curiosity and exploration in highly gifted students with structural equation modelling. The secondary aim was to compare highly gifted and non-gifted students’ environmental awareness, environmental attitude, curiosity and exploration levels. Participants were 311 (154 highly gifted, 157 non-gifted secondary school students in Turkey who volunteered to take part in this study. All of the participants were either 13 or 14 years old, with a mean age of 13.77 years. For gathering data, Environmental Awareness Scale, Environmental Attitude Scale, Curiosity and Exploration-II were used. While analyzing the data, Pearson correlation analysis, independent samples t test, and structural equation model were used. According to the findings, highly gifted students’ environmental awareness, environmental attitude, curiosity and exploration scores were higher than non-gifted students’. Indices of Structural Equation Modelling (SEM indicated that the increase in the curiosity and exploration scores of the highly gifted children increased the environmental awareness; in this case, the environmental attitudes were affected positively.

  2. Reduced Complexity Channel Models for IMT-Advanced Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Accuracy and complexity are two crucial aspects of the applicability of a channel model for wideband multiple input multiple output (MIMO systems. For small number of antenna element pairs, correlation-based models have lower computational complexity while the geometry-based stochastic models (GBSMs can provide more accurate modeling of real radio propagation. This paper investigates several potential simplifications of the GBSM to reduce the complexity with minimal impact on accuracy. In addition, we develop a set of broadband metrics which enable a thorough investigation of the differences between the GBSMs and the simplified models. The impact of various random variables which are employed by the original GBSM on the system level simulation are also studied. Both simulation results and a measurement campaign show that complexity can be reduced significantly with a negligible loss of accuracy in the proposed metrics. As an example, in the presented scenarios, the computational time can be reduced by up to 57% while keeping the relative deviation of 5% outage capacity within 5%.

  3. Environmental Transport Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Wasiolek

    2003-06-27

    This analysis report is one of the technical reports documenting the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN), a biosphere model supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows relationships among the reports developed for biosphere modeling and biosphere abstraction products for the TSPA, as identified in the ''Technical Work Plan: for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (TWP) (BSC 2003 [163602]). Some documents in Figure 1-1 may be under development and not available when this report is issued. This figure provides an understanding of how this report contributes to biosphere modeling in support of the license application (LA), but access to the listed documents is not required to understand the contents of this report. This report is one of the reports that develops input parameter values for the biosphere model. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003 [160699]) describes the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the input parameters. The purpose of this analysis is to develop biosphere model parameter values related to radionuclide transport and accumulation in the environment. These parameters support calculations of radionuclide concentrations in the environmental media (e.g., soil, crops, animal products, and air) resulting from a given radionuclide concentration at the source of contamination (i.e., either in groundwater or volcanic ash). The analysis was performed in accordance with the TWP (BSC 2003 [163602]). This analysis develops values of parameters associated with many features, events, and processes (FEPs) applicable to the reference biosphere (DTN: M00303SEPFEPS2.000 [162452]), which are addressed in the biosphere model (BSC 2003 [160699]). The treatment of these FEPs is described in BSC (2003 [160699

  4. A model for environmental sex reversal in fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurley, M A; Matthiessen, P; Pickering, A D

    2004-03-21

    A mathematical model is presented which combines genetic XX-female/XY-male sex determination with environmental pressure for phenotypic sex reversal. This may occur when fishes are exposed to endocrine disrupters, specifically masculinization by exposure to androgens and feminization by exposure to estrogens. A generic model is derived for the sex ratio in successive generations and three special cases, with chronic and constant pressure to sex reverse, are discussed in detail. These show that, with extreme environmental pressure to masculinize, the male genotype is at risk of dying out but with less extreme pressure, masculinization will not be detectable since the proportion of phenotypic males becomes one-half. With feminization at any pressure to sex reverse, the male and female genotypes will be maintained in a stable sex ratio in which the proportion of genotypic males exceeds one-half and is close to one-half if YY offspring (eggs) are not viable. In converse, the model is also applicable to the genetic ZZ-male/ZW-female system of sex determination in fish. At present suitable data are not available with which to validate the model, but proposals are made for relevant experimental studies.

  5. (Relatively) Simple Models of Flow in Complex Terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Peter; Weng, Wensong; Salmon, Jim

    2013-04-01

    The term, "complex terrain" includes both topography and variations in surface roughness and thermal properties. The scales that are affected can differ and there are some advantages to modeling them separately. In studies of flow in complex terrain we have developed 2 D and 3 D models of atmospheric PBL boundary layer flow over roughness changes, appropriate for longer fetches than most existing models. These "internal boundary layers" are especially important for understanding and predicting wind speed variations with distance from shorelines, an important factor for wind farms around, and potentially in, the Great Lakes. The models can also form a base for studying the wakes behind woodlots and wind turbines. Some sample calculations of wind speed evolution over water and the reduced wind speeds behind an isolated woodlot, represented simply in terms of an increase in surface roughness, will be presented. Note that these models can also include thermal effects and non-neutral stratification. We can use the model to deal with 3-D roughness variations and will describe applications to both on-shore and off-shore situations around the Great Lakes. In particular we will show typical results for hub height winds and indicate the length of over-water fetch needed to get the full benefit of siting turbines over water. The linear Mixed Spectral Finite-Difference (MSFD) and non-linear (NLMSFD) models for surface boundary-layer flow over complex terrain have been extended to planetary boundary-layer flow over topography This allows for their use for larger scale regions and increased heights. The models have been applied to successfully simulate the Askervein hill experimental case and we will show examples of applications to more complex terrain, typical of some Canadian wind farms. Output from the model can be used as an alternative to MS-Micro, WAsP or other CFD calculations of topographic impacts for input to wind farm design software.

  6. Surface complexation modeling of inositol hexaphosphate sorption onto gibbsite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruyter-Hooley, Maika; Larsson, Anna-Carin; Johnson, Bruce B; Antzutkin, Oleg N; Angove, Michael J

    2015-02-15

    The sorption of Inositol hexaphosphate (IP6) onto gibbsite was investigated using a combination of adsorption experiments, (31)P solid-state MAS NMR spectroscopy, and surface complexation modeling. Adsorption experiments conducted at four temperatures showed that IP6 sorption decreased with increasing pH. At pH 6, IP6 sorption increased with increasing temperature, while at pH 10 sorption decreased as the temperature was raised. (31)P MAS NMR measurements at pH 3, 6, 9 and 11 produced spectra with broad resonance lines that could be de-convoluted with up to five resonances (+5, 0, -6, -13 and -21ppm). The chemical shifts suggest the sorption process involves a combination of both outer- and inner-sphere complexation and surface precipitation. Relative intensities of the observed resonances indicate that outer-sphere complexation is important in the sorption process at higher pH, while inner-sphere complexation and surface precipitation are dominant at lower pH. Using the adsorption and (31)P MAS NMR data, IP6 sorption to gibbsite was modeled with an extended constant capacitance model (ECCM). The adsorption reactions that best described the sorption of IP6 to gibbsite included two inner-sphere surface complexes and one outer-sphere complex: ≡AlOH + IP₆¹²⁻ + 5H⁺ ↔ ≡Al(IP₆H₄)⁷⁻ + H₂O, ≡3AlOH + IP₆¹²⁻ + 6H⁺ ↔ ≡Al₃(IP₆H₃)⁶⁻ + 3H₂O, ≡2AlOH + IP₆¹²⁻ + 4H⁺ ↔ (≡AlOH₂)₂²⁺(IP₆H₂)¹⁰⁻. The inner-sphere complex involving three surface sites may be considered to be equivalent to a surface precipitate. Thermodynamic parameters were obtained from equilibrium constants derived from surface complexation modeling. Enthalpies for the formation of inner-sphere surface complexes were endothermic, while the enthalpy for the outer-sphere complex was exothermic. The entropies for the proposed sorption reactions were large and positive suggesting that changes in solvation of species play a major role in driving

  7. Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

    2013-09-01

    Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Complexity, accuracy and practical applicability of different biogeochemical model versions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Los, F. J.; Blaas, M.

    2010-04-01

    The construction of validated biogeochemical model applications as prognostic tools for the marine environment involves a large number of choices particularly with respect to the level of details of the .physical, chemical and biological aspects. Generally speaking, enhanced complexity might enhance veracity, accuracy and credibility. However, very complex models are not necessarily effective or efficient forecast tools. In this paper, models of varying degrees of complexity are evaluated with respect to their forecast skills. In total 11 biogeochemical model variants have been considered based on four different horizontal grids. The applications vary in spatial resolution, in vertical resolution (2DH versus 3D), in nature of transport, in turbidity and in the number of phytoplankton species. Included models range from 15 year old applications with relatively simple physics up to present state of the art 3D models. With all applications the same year, 2003, has been simulated. During the model intercomparison it has been noticed that the 'OSPAR' Goodness of Fit cost function (Villars and de Vries, 1998) leads to insufficient discrimination of different models. This results in models obtaining similar scores although closer inspection of the results reveals large differences. In this paper therefore, we have adopted the target diagram by Jolliff et al. (2008) which provides a concise and more contrasting picture of model skill on the entire model domain and for the entire period of the simulations. Correctness in prediction of the mean and the variability are separated and thus enhance insight in model functioning. Using the target diagrams it is demonstrated that recent models are more consistent and have smaller biases. Graphical inspection of time series confirms this, as the level of variability appears more realistic, also given the multi-annual background statistics of the observations. Nevertheless, whether the improvements are all genuine for the particular

  9. Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

  10. Assessing Complexity in Learning Outcomes--A Comparison between the SOLO Taxonomy and the Model of Hierarchical Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stålne, Kristian; Kjellström, Sofia; Utriainen, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    An important aspect of higher education is to educate students who can manage complex relationships and solve complex problems. Teachers need to be able to evaluate course content with regard to complexity, as well as evaluate students' ability to assimilate complex content and express it in the form of a learning outcome. One model for evaluating…

  11. Modeling data irregularities and structural complexities in data envelopment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Joe

    2007-01-01

    In a relatively short period of time, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful quantitative, analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. It has been successfully applied to a whole variety of problems in many different contexts worldwide. This book deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in modeling DEA problems. DEA's use has grown with its capability of dealing with complex "service industry" and the "public service domain" types of problems that require modeling of both qualitative and quantitative data. This handbook treatment deals with specific data problems including: imprecise or inaccurate data; missing data; qualitative data; outliers; undesirable outputs; quality data; statistical analysis; software and other data aspects of modeling complex DEA problems. In addition, the book will demonstrate how to visualize DEA results when the data is more than 3-dimensional, and how to identify efficiency units quickly and accurately.

  12. Computer models of complex multiloop branched pipeline systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudinov, I. V.; Kolesnikov, S. V.; Eremin, A. V.; Branfileva, A. N.

    2013-11-01

    This paper describes the principal theoretical concepts of the method used for constructing computer models of complex multiloop branched pipeline networks, and this method is based on the theory of graphs and two Kirchhoff's laws applied to electrical circuits. The models make it possible to calculate velocities, flow rates, and pressures of a fluid medium in any section of pipeline networks, when the latter are considered as single hydraulic systems. On the basis of multivariant calculations the reasons for existing problems can be identified, the least costly methods of their elimination can be proposed, and recommendations for planning the modernization of pipeline systems and construction of their new sections can be made. The results obtained can be applied to complex pipeline systems intended for various purposes (water pipelines, petroleum pipelines, etc.). The operability of the model has been verified on an example of designing a unified computer model of the heat network for centralized heat supply of the city of Samara.

  13. Complex Network Structure of Flocks in the Standard Vicsek Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baglietto, Gabriel; Albano, Ezequiel V.; Candia, Julián

    2013-10-01

    In flocking models, the collective motion of self-driven individuals leads to the formation of complex spatiotemporal patterns. The Standard Vicsek Model (SVM) considers individuals that tend to adopt the direction of movement of their neighbors under the influence of noise. By performing an extensive complex network characterization of the structure of SVM flocks, we show that flocks are highly clustered, assortative, and non-hierarchical networks with short-tailed degree distributions. Moreover, we also find that the SVM dynamics leads to the formation of complex structures with an effective dimension higher than that of the space where the actual displacements take place. Furthermore, we show that these structures are capable of sustaining mean-field-like orientationally ordered states when the displacements are suppressed, thus suggesting a linkage between the onset of order and the enhanced dimensionality of SVM flocks.

  14. Free particles from Brauer algebras in complex matrix models

    CERN Document Server

    Kimura, Yusuke; Turton, David

    2009-01-01

    The gauge invariant degrees of freedom of matrix models based on an N x N complex matrix, with U(N) gauge symmetry, contain hidden free particle structures. These are exhibited using triangular matrix variables via the Schur decomposition. The Brauer algebra basis for complex matrix models developed earlier is useful in projecting to a sector which matches the state counting of N free fermions on a circle. The Brauer algebra projection is characterized by the vanishing of a scale invariant laplacian constructed from the complex matrix. The special case of N=2 is studied in detail: the ring of gauge invariant functions as well as a ring of scale and gauge invariant differential operators are characterized completely. The orthonormal basis of wavefunctions in this special case is completely characterized by a set of five commuting Hamiltonians, which display free particle structures. Applications to the reduced matrix quantum mechanics coming from radial quantization in N=4 SYM are described. We propose that th...

  15. Modelling, Estimation and Control of Networked Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chiuso, Alessandro; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro; Schenato, Luca; Zampieri, Sandro

    2009-01-01

    The paradigm of complexity is pervading both science and engineering, leading to the emergence of novel approaches oriented at the development of a systemic view of the phenomena under study; the definition of powerful tools for modelling, estimation, and control; and the cross-fertilization of different disciplines and approaches. This book is devoted to networked systems which are one of the most promising paradigms of complexity. It is demonstrated that complex, dynamical networks are powerful tools to model, estimate, and control many interesting phenomena, like agent coordination, synchronization, social and economics events, networks of critical infrastructures, resources allocation, information processing, or control over communication networks. Moreover, it is shown how the recent technological advances in wireless communication and decreasing in cost and size of electronic devices are promoting the appearance of large inexpensive interconnected systems, each with computational, sensing and mobile cap...

  16. Agricultural livelihoods in coastal Bangladesh under climate and environmental change--a model framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázár, Attila N; Clarke, Derek; Adams, Helen; Akanda, Abdur Razzaque; Szabo, Sylvia; Nicholls, Robert J; Matthews, Zoe; Begum, Dilruba; Saleh, Abul Fazal M; Abedin, Md Anwarul; Payo, Andres; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Hutton, Craig; Mondal, M Shahjahan; Moslehuddin, Abu Zofar Md

    2015-06-01

    Coastal Bangladesh experiences significant poverty and hazards today and is highly vulnerable to climate and environmental change over the coming decades. Coastal stakeholders are demanding information to assist in the decision making processes, including simulation models to explore how different interventions, under different plausible future socio-economic and environmental scenarios, could alleviate environmental risks and promote development. Many existing simulation models neglect the complex interdependencies between the socio-economic and environmental system of coastal Bangladesh. Here an integrated approach has been proposed to develop a simulation model to support agriculture and poverty-based analysis and decision-making in coastal Bangladesh. In particular, we show how a simulation model of farmer's livelihoods at the household level can be achieved. An extended version of the FAO's CROPWAT agriculture model has been integrated with a downscaled regional demography model to simulate net agriculture profit. This is used together with a household income-expenses balance and a loans logical tree to simulate the evolution of food security indicators and poverty levels. Modelling identifies salinity and temperature stress as limiting factors to crop productivity and fertilisation due to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a reinforcing factor. The crop simulation results compare well with expected outcomes but also reveal some unexpected behaviours. For example, under current model assumptions, temperature is more important than salinity for crop production. The agriculture-based livelihood and poverty simulations highlight the critical significance of debt through informal and formal loans set at such levels as to persistently undermine the well-being of agriculture-dependent households. Simulations also indicate that progressive approaches to agriculture (i.e. diversification) might not provide the clear economic benefit from the perspective of

  17. ABOUT COMPLEX APPROACH TO MODELLING OF TECHNOLOGICAL MACHINES FUNCTIONING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Honcharov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Problems arise in the process of designing, production and investigation of a complicated technological machine. These problems concern not only properties of some types of equipment but they have respect to regularities of control object functioning as a whole. A technological machine is thought of as such technological complex where it is possible to lay emphasis on a control system (or controlling device and a controlled object. The paper analyzes a number of existing approaches to construction of models for controlling devices and their functioning. A complex model for a technological machine operation has been proposed in the paper; in other words it means functioning of a controlling device and a controlled object of the technological machine. In this case models of the controlling device and the controlled object of the technological machine can be represented as aggregate combination (elements of these models. The paper describes a conception on realization of a complex model for a technological machine as a model for interaction of units (elements in the controlling device and the controlled object. When a control activation is given to the controlling device of the technological machine its modelling is executed at an algorithmic or logic level and the obtained output signals are interpreted as events and information about them is transferred to executive mechanisms.The proposed scheme of aggregate integration considers element models as object classes and the integration scheme is presented as a combination of object property values (combination of a great many input and output contacts and combination of object interactions (in the form of an integration operator. Spawn of parent object descendants of the technological machine model and creation of their copies in various project parts is one of the most important means of the distributed technological machine modelling that makes it possible to develop complicated models of

  18. Complex source rate estimation for atmospheric transport and dispersion models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, L.L.

    1993-09-13

    The accuracy associated with assessing the environmental consequences of an accidental atmospheric release of radioactivity is highly dependent on our knowledge of the source release rate which is generally poorly known. This paper reports on a technique that integrates the radiological measurements with atmospheric dispersion modeling for more accurate source term estimation. We construct a minimum least squares methodology for solving the inverse problem with no a priori information about the source rate.

  19. Petri net model for analysis of concurrently processed complex algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoughton, John W.; Mielke, Roland R.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents a Petri-net model suitable for analyzing the concurrent processing of computationally complex algorithms. The decomposed operations are to be processed in a multiple processor, data driven architecture. Of particular interest is the application of the model to both the description of the data/control flow of a particular algorithm, and to the general specification of the data driven architecture. A candidate architecture is also presented.

  20. Environmental Pathway Models-Ground-Water Modeling in Support of Remedial Decision Making at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Joint Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group wrote this report to promote appropriate and consistent use of mathematical environmental models in the remediation and restoration of sites contaminated by radioactive substances.

  1. Interactive Visualizations of Complex Seismic Data and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, C.; Ammon, C. J.; Maceira, M.; Herrmann, R. B.

    2016-12-01

    The volume and complexity of seismic data and models have increased dramatically thanks to dense seismic station deployments and advances in data modeling and processing. Seismic observations such as receiver functions and surface-wave dispersion are multidimensional: latitude, longitude, time, amplitude and latitude, longitude, period, and velocity. Three-dimensional seismic velocity models are characterized with three spatial dimensions and one additional dimension for the speed. In these circumstances, exploring the data and models and assessing the data fits is a challenge. A few professional packages are available to visualize these complex data and models. However, most of these packages rely on expensive commercial software or require a substantial time investment to master, and even when that effort is complete, communicating the results to others remains a problem. A traditional approach during the model interpretation stage is to examine data fits and model features using a large number of static displays. Publications include a few key slices or cross-sections of these high-dimensional data, but this prevents others from directly exploring the model and corresponding data fits. In this presentation, we share interactive visualization examples of complex seismic data and models that are based on open-source tools and are easy to implement. Model and data are linked in an intuitive and informative web-browser based display that can be used to explore the model and the features in the data that influence various aspects of the model. We encode the model and data into HTML files and present high-dimensional information using two approaches. The first uses a Python package to pack both data and interactive plots in a single file. The second approach uses JavaScript, CSS, and HTML to build a dynamic webpage for seismic data visualization. The tools have proven useful and led to deeper insight into 3D seismic models and the data that were used to construct them

  2. Modelling and simulating in-stent restenosis with complex automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, A.G.; Lawford, P.; Hose, R.

    2010-01-01

    In-stent restenosis, the maladaptive response of a blood vessel to injury caused by the deployment of a stent, is a multiscale system involving a large number of biological and physical processes. We describe a Complex Automata Model for in-stent restenosis, coupling bulk flow, drug diffusion, and s

  3. Modelling of Voids in Complex Radio Frequency Plasmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W. J. Goedheer,; Land, V.; Venema, J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper hydrodynamic and kinetic approaches to model low pressure capacitively coupled complex radio-frequency discharges are discussed and applied to discharges under microgravity. Experiments in the PKE-Nefedov reactor on board the International Space Station, as well as discharges in which

  4. Modelling storm impact on complex coastlines: Westkapelle, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Santen, R.B.; Steetzel, H.J.; Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.; Van Dongeren, A.

    2012-01-01

    Regular dune safety assessments in the Netherlands are presently based on a 1D model approach, which is insufficiently applicable for more complex coastal areas with structures, tidal channels or spatially strong varying bathymetry. These situations require more advanced methods to assess the safety

  5. Modelling storm impact on complex coastlines: Westkapelle, The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Santen, R.B.; Steetzel, H.J.; Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.; Van Dongeren, A.

    2012-01-01

    Regular dune safety assessments in the Netherlands are presently based on a 1D model approach, which is insufficiently applicable for more complex coastal areas with structures, tidal channels or spatially strong varying bathymetry. These situations require more advanced methods to assess the safety

  6. Performance of Random Effects Model Estimators under Complex Sampling Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yue; Stokes, Lynne; Harris, Ian; Wang, Yan

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we consider estimation of parameters of random effects models from samples collected via complex multistage designs. Incorporation of sampling weights is one way to reduce estimation bias due to unequal probabilities of selection. Several weighting methods have been proposed in the literature for estimating the parameters of…

  7. Modelling and simulating in-stent restenosis with complex automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, A.G.; Lawford, P.; Hose, R.

    2010-01-01

    In-stent restenosis, the maladaptive response of a blood vessel to injury caused by the deployment of a stent, is a multiscale system involving a large number of biological and physical processes. We describe a Complex Automata Model for in-stent restenosis, coupling bulk flow, drug diffusion, and s

  8. Copper complexes as biomimetic models of catechol oxidase : mechanistic studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koval, Iryna A.

    2006-01-01

    The research described in this thesis deals with the synthesis of copper(II) complexes with phenol-based or macrocyclic ligands, which can be regarded as model compounds of the active site of catechol oxidase, and with the mechanism of the catalytic oxidation of catechol mediated by these compounds.

  9. Model-based safety architecture framework for complex systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuitemaker, K.; Rajabalinejad, M.; Braakhuis, J.G.; Podofilini, Luca; Sudret, Bruno; Stojadinovic, Bozidar; Zio, Enrico; Kröger, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    The shift to transparency and rising need of the general public for safety, together with the increasing complexity and interdisciplinarity of modern safety-critical Systems of Systems (SoS) have resulted in a Model-Based Safety Architecture Framework (MBSAF) for capturing and sharing architectural

  10. Surface complexation modeling of americium sorption onto volcanic tuff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, M; Kelkar, S; Meijer, A

    2014-10-01

    Results of a surface complexation model (SCM) for americium sorption on volcanic rocks (devitrified and zeolitic tuff) are presented. The model was developed using PHREEQC and based on laboratory data for americium sorption on quartz. Available data for sorption of americium on quartz as a function of pH in dilute groundwater can be modeled with two surface reactions involving an americium sulfate and an americium carbonate complex. It was assumed in applying the model to volcanic rocks from Yucca Mountain, that the surface properties of volcanic rocks can be represented by a quartz surface. Using groundwaters compositionally representative of Yucca Mountain, americium sorption distribution coefficient (Kd, L/Kg) values were calculated as function of pH. These Kd values are close to the experimentally determined Kd values for americium sorption on volcanic rocks, decreasing with increasing pH in the pH range from 7 to 9. The surface complexation constants, derived in this study, allow prediction of sorption of americium in a natural complex system, taking into account the inherent uncertainty associated with geochemical conditions that occur along transport pathways.

  11. Database application for changing data models in environmental engineering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussels, Ulrich; Camarinopoulos, Stephanos; Luedtke, Torsten; Pampoukis, Georgios [RISA Sicherheitsanalysen GmbH, Berlin-Charlottenburg (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Whenever a technical task is to be solved with the help of a database application and uncertainties regarding the structure, scope or level of detail of the data model exist (either currently or in the future) the use of a generic database application can reduce considerably the cost of implementation and maintenance. Simultaneously the approach described in this contribution permits the operation with different views on the data and even finding and defining new views which had not been considered before. The prerequisite for this is that the preliminary information (structure as well as data) stored into the generic application matches the intended use. In this case, parts of the generic model developed with the generic approach can be reused and according efforts for a major rebuild can be saved. This significantly reduces the development time. At the same time flexibility is achieved concerning the environmental data model, which is not given in the context of conventional developments. (orig.)

  12. Research model of the environmental management in hotel firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaiza Armas Cruz

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The current work aims to develop a instrument to measure the impact of firms’ environmental protection activities on their economic performance. This tool is specifically designed for the tourism sector, which is rarely analysed from this perspective despite its considerable relevance due to its strong interaction with the environment. The work empirically tests the model on a sample of hotels in Canary Islands (Spain. It uses structural equation modelling to analyse the information. The findings show that the proposed model fits the underlying reality well, and its constituent components satisfy validity and reliability criteria. Thus, they make an important contribution to knowledge about the determinants and implications of sustainability in tourism-sector firms.

  13. TESTING FOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS FROM COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLING SURVEYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) employs the cumulative distribution function (cdf) to measure the status of quantitative variables for resources of interest. The ability to compare cdf's for a resource from, say,...

  14. A perspective on modeling and simulation of complex dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åström, K. J.

    2011-09-01

    There has been an amazing development of modeling and simulation from its beginning in the 1920s, when the technology was available only at a handful of University groups who had access to a mechanical differential analyzer. Today, tools for modeling and simulation are available for every student and engineer. This paper gives a perspective on the development with particular emphasis on technology and paradigm shifts. Modeling is increasingly important for design and operation of complex natural and man-made systems. Because of the increased use of model based control such as Kalman filters and model predictive control, models are also appearing as components of feedback systems. Modeling and simulation are multidisciplinary, it is used in a wide variety of fields and their development have been strongly influenced by mathematics, numerics, computer science and computer technology.

  15. Bayesian Case-deletion Model Complexity and Information Criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Chen, Qingxia

    2014-10-01

    We establish a connection between Bayesian case influence measures for assessing the influence of individual observations and Bayesian predictive methods for evaluating the predictive performance of a model and comparing different models fitted to the same dataset. Based on such a connection, we formally propose a new set of Bayesian case-deletion model complexity (BCMC) measures for quantifying the effective number of parameters in a given statistical model. Its properties in linear models are explored. Adding some functions of BCMC to a conditional deviance function leads to a Bayesian case-deletion information criterion (BCIC) for comparing models. We systematically investigate some properties of BCIC and its connection with other information criteria, such as the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC). We illustrate the proposed methodology on linear mixed models with simulations and a real data example.

  16. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  17. Data and models for exploring sustainability of human well-being in global environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deffuant, G.; Alvarez, I.; Barreteau, O.; de Vries, B.; Edmonds, B.; Gilbert, N.; Gotts, N.; Jabot, F.; Janssen, S.; Hilden, M.; Kolditz, O.; Murray-Rust, D.; Rougé, C.; Smits, P.

    2012-11-01

    This position paper proposes a vision for the research activity about sustainability in global environmental change (GEC) taking place in the FuturICT flagship project. This activity will be organised in an "Exploratory", gathering a core network of European scientists from ICT, social simulation, complex systems, economics, demographics, Earth system science. These research teams will collaborate in building a self-organising network of data sources and models about GEC and in using new facilities fostering stakeholder participation. We develop examples of concrete directions for this research: world wide virtual population with demographic and some economic descriptors, ecosystem services production and distribution, governance systems at various scales.

  18. [Systematization and hygienic standardization of environmental factors on the basis of common graphic models].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galkin, A A

    2012-01-01

    On the basis of graphic models of the human response to environmental factors, two main types of complex quantitative influence as well as interrelation between determined effects at the level of an individual, and stochastic effects on population were revealed. Two main kinds of factors have been suggested to be distinguished. They are essential factors and accidental factors. The essential factors are common for environment. The accidental factors are foreign for environment. The above two kinds are different in approaches of hygienic standardization Accidental factors need a dot-like approach, whereas a two-level range approach is suitable for the essential factors.

  19. Complexity vs. simplicity: groundwater model ranking using information criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelhardt, I; De Aguinaga, J G; Mikat, H; Schüth, C; Liedl, R

    2014-01-01

    A groundwater model characterized by a lack of field data about hydraulic model parameters and boundary conditions combined with many observation data sets for calibration purpose was investigated concerning model uncertainty. Seven different conceptual models with a stepwise increase from 0 to 30 adjustable parameters were calibrated using PEST. Residuals, sensitivities, the Akaike information criterion (AIC and AICc), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and Kashyap's information criterion (KIC) were calculated for a set of seven inverse calibrated models with increasing complexity. Finally, the likelihood of each model was computed. Comparing only residuals of the different conceptual models leads to an overparameterization and certainty loss in the conceptual model approach. The model employing only uncalibrated hydraulic parameters, estimated from sedimentological information, obtained the worst AIC, BIC, and KIC values. Using only sedimentological data to derive hydraulic parameters introduces a systematic error into the simulation results and cannot be recommended for generating a valuable model. For numerical investigations with high numbers of calibration data the BIC and KIC select as optimal a simpler model than the AIC. The model with 15 adjusted parameters was evaluated by AIC as the best option and obtained a likelihood of 98%. The AIC disregards the potential model structure error and the selection of the KIC is, therefore, more appropriate. Sensitivities to piezometric heads were highest for the model with only five adjustable parameters and sensitivity coefficients were directly influenced by the changes in extracted groundwater volumes.

  20. (Environmental and geophysical modeling, fracture mechanics, and boundary element methods)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gray, L.J.

    1990-11-09

    Technical discussions at the various sites visited centered on application of boundary integral methods for environmental modeling, seismic analysis, and computational fracture mechanics in composite and smart'' materials. The traveler also attended the International Association for Boundary Element Methods Conference at Rome, Italy. While many aspects of boundary element theory and applications were discussed in the papers, the dominant topic was the analysis and application of hypersingular equations. This has been the focus of recent work by the author, and thus the conference was highly relevant to research at ORNL.