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Sample records for modeling complex environmental

  1. Parametric Linear Hybrid Automata for Complex Environmental Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samar Hayat Khan Tareen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Environmental systems, whether they be weather patterns or predator-prey relationships, are dependent on a number of different variables, each directly or indirectly affecting the system at large. Since not all of these factors are known, these systems take on non-linear dynamics, making it difficult to accurately predict meaningful behavioral trends far into the future. However, such dynamics do not warrant complete ignorance of different efforts to understand and model close approximations of these systems. Towards this end, we have applied a logical modeling approach to model and analyze the behavioral trends and systematic trajectories that these systems exhibit without delving into their quantification. This approach, formalized by René Thomas for discrete logical modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs and further extended in our previous studies as parametric biological linear hybrid automata (Bio-LHA, has been previously employed for the analyses of different molecular regulatory interactions occurring across various cells and microbial species. As relationships between different interacting components of a system can be simplified as positive or negative influences, we can employ the Bio-LHA framework to represent different components of the environmental system as positive or negative feedbacks. In the present study, we highlight the benefits of hybrid (discrete/continuous modeling which lead to refinements among the fore-casted behaviors in order to find out which ones are actually possible. We have taken two case studies: an interaction of three microbial species in a freshwater pond, and a more complex atmospheric system, to show the applications of the Bio-LHA methodology for the timed hybrid modeling of environmental systems. Results show that the approach using the Bio-LHA is a viable method for behavioral modeling of complex environmental systems by finding timing constraints while keeping the complexity of the model

  2. Socio-Environmental Resilience and Complex Urban Systems Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deal, Brian; Petri, Aaron; Pan, Haozhi; Goldenberg, Romain; Kalantari, Zahra; Cvetkovic, Vladimir

    2017-04-01

    The increasing pressure of climate change has inspired two normative agendas; socio-technical transitions and socio-ecological resilience, both sharing a complex-systems epistemology (Gillard et al. 2016). Socio-technical solutions include a continuous, massive data gathering exercise now underway in urban places under the guise of developing a 'smart'(er) city. This has led to the creation of data-rich environments where large data sets have become central to monitoring and forming a response to anomalies. Some have argued that these kinds of data sets can help in planning for resilient cities (Norberg and Cumming 2008; Batty 2013). In this paper, we focus on a more nuanced, ecologically based, socio-environmental perspective of resilience planning that is often given less consideration. Here, we broadly discuss (and model) the tightly linked, mutually influenced, social and biophysical subsystems that are critical for understanding urban resilience. We argue for the need to incorporate these sub system linkages into the resilience planning lexicon through the integration of systems models and planning support systems. We make our case by first providing a context for urban resilience from a socio-ecological and planning perspective. We highlight the data needs for this type of resilient planning and compare it to currently collected data streams in various smart city efforts. This helps to define an approach for operationalizing socio-environmental resilience planning using robust systems models and planning support systems. For this, we draw from our experiences in coupling a spatio-temporal land use model (the Landuse Evolution and impact Assessment Model (LEAM)) with water quality and quantity models in Stockholm Sweden. We describe the coupling of these systems models using a robust Planning Support System (PSS) structural framework. We use the coupled model simulations and PSS to analyze the connection between urban land use transformation (social) and water

  3. Complex Environmental Data Modelling Using Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanevski, Mikhail

    2015-04-01

    The research deals with an adaptation and application of Adaptive General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) to high dimensional environmental data. GRNN [1,2,3] are efficient modelling tools both for spatial and temporal data and are based on nonparametric kernel methods closely related to classical Nadaraya-Watson estimator. Adaptive GRNN, using anisotropic kernels, can be also applied for features selection tasks when working with high dimensional data [1,3]. In the present research Adaptive GRNN are used to study geospatial data predictability and relevant feature selection using both simulated and real data case studies. The original raw data were either three dimensional monthly precipitation data or monthly wind speeds embedded into 13 dimensional space constructed by geographical coordinates and geo-features calculated from digital elevation model. GRNN were applied in two different ways: 1) adaptive GRNN with the resulting list of features ordered according to their relevancy; and 2) adaptive GRNN applied to evaluate all possible models N [in case of wind fields N=(2^13 -1)=8191] and rank them according to the cross-validation error. In both cases training were carried out applying leave-one-out procedure. An important result of the study is that the set of the most relevant features depends on the month (strong seasonal effect) and year. The predictabilities of precipitation and wind field patterns, estimated using the cross-validation and testing errors of raw and shuffled data, were studied in detail. The results of both approaches were qualitatively and quantitatively compared. In conclusion, Adaptive GRNN with their ability to select features and efficient modelling of complex high dimensional data can be widely used in automatic/on-line mapping and as an integrated part of environmental decision support systems. 1. Kanevski M., Pozdnoukhov A., Timonin V. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. Theory, applications and software. EPFL Press

  4. satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IICBA01

    Greenhouse-gas-induced temperature increase is one of the main reasons of ... The relation between altitude and density is a fairly complex exponential that has been ... in to ocean by which water becomes acidic also when water is heated it ...

  5. EVALUATING PREDICTIVE ERRORS OF A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL MODEL USING A GENERAL LINEAR MODEL AND LEAST SQUARE MEANS

    Science.gov (United States)

    A General Linear Model (GLM) was used to evaluate the deviation of predicted values from expected values for a complex environmental model. For this demonstration, we used the default level interface of the Regional Mercury Cycling Model (R-MCM) to simulate epilimnetic total mer...

  6. Using environmental tracers in modeling flow in a complex shallow aquifer system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Troldborg, Lars; Jensen, Karsten Høgh; Engesgaard, Peter Knudegaard

    2008-01-01

    shapes and sizes without being similar to the assumed age distributions used in the analytical approach. The shape of age distribution to some extent depends on sampling size and on whether the system is modeled in a transient or in a steady state, but shape and size were largely driven......Using environmental tracers in groundwater dating partly relies on the assumption that groundwater age distribution can be described analytically. To investigate the applicability of age dating in complex multiaquifer systems, a methodology for simulating well specific groundwater age distribution...... was developed. Using a groundwater model and particle tracking we modeled age distributions at screen locations. By enveloping modeled age distributions and estimated recharge concentrations, environmental tracer breakthroughs were simulated for specific screens. Simulated age distributions are of irregular...

  7. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator-prey model with periodic environmental modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harikrishnan, K. P.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator-prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rate of the predator. We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation. The model also displays the peculiar phenomenon of coexistence of multiple limit cycles in the domain of attraction for a given parameter value that combine and finally gets transformed into a single strange attractor as the control parameter is increased. To identify the chaotic regime in the parameter plane of the model, we apply the recently proposed scheme based on the correlation dimension analysis. We show that the environmental modulation is more favourable for the stable coexistence of the predator and the prey as the regions of fixed point and limit cycle in the parameter plane increase at the expense of chaotic domain.

  8. The Value of Conceptual Models in Coping with Complexity and Interdisciplinarity in Environmental Sciences Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortuin, Karen P. J.; van Koppen, C. S. A.; Leemans, Rik

    2011-01-01

    Conceptual models are useful for facing the challenges of environmental sciences curriculum and course developers and students. These challenges are inherent to the interdisciplinary and problem-oriented character of environmental sciences curricula. In this article, we review the merits of conceptual models in facing these challenges. These…

  9. Managing Complex Environmental Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Mikael [Karlstad Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Environmental Sciences

    2006-09-15

    Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

  10. Managing Complex Environmental Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Mikael

    2006-01-01

    Environmental and public health risks are often handled in a process in which experts, and sometimes policy makers, try their best to quantitatively assess, evaluate and manage risks. This approach harmonises with mainstream interpretations of sustainable development, which aim at defining a desirable relationship between human and natural systems, for instance by policies that define limit values of different forms of disturbances. However, under conditions of high scientific incertitude, diverging values and distrust, this approach is far from satisfactory. The use of cell phones, hazardous chemicals, nuclear or fossil energy systems, and modern biotechnology are examples of activities causing such risks with high complexity. Against this background, a complementary interpretation of the concept of sustainable development is suggested. This interpretation is operationalised through new formulations of three common principles for public risk management; the precautionary principle, the polluter pays principle and the principle of public participation. Implementation of these reformulated principles would challenge some foundations of present mainstream views on environmental decision-making, but would on the other hand contribute to improved practices for long-term human welfare and planetary survival (full text of contribution)

  11. Environmental Factors Affecting Computer Assisted Language Learning Success: A Complex Dynamic Systems Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marek, Michael W.; Wu, Wen-Chi Vivian

    2014-01-01

    This conceptual, interdisciplinary inquiry explores Complex Dynamic Systems as the concept relates to the internal and external environmental factors affecting computer assisted language learning (CALL). Based on the results obtained by de Rosnay ["World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution", 67(4/5), 304-315 (2011)], who observed…

  12. Addressing the complexity of water chemistry in environmental fate modeling for engineered nanoparticles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sani-Kast, Nicole; Scheringer, Martin; Slomberg, Danielle; Labille, Jérôme; Praetorius, Antonia; Ollivier, Patrick; Hungerbühler, Konrad

    2015-12-01

    Engineered nanoparticle (ENP) fate models developed to date - aimed at predicting ENP concentration in the aqueous environment - have limited applicability because they employ constant environmental conditions along the modeled system or a highly specific environmental representation; both approaches do not show the effects of spatial and/or temporal variability. To address this conceptual gap, we developed a novel modeling strategy that: 1) incorporates spatial variability in environmental conditions in an existing ENP fate model; and 2) analyzes the effect of a wide range of randomly sampled environmental conditions (representing variations in water chemistry). This approach was employed to investigate the transport of nano-TiO2 in the Lower Rhône River (France) under numerous sets of environmental conditions. The predicted spatial concentration profiles of nano-TiO2 were then grouped according to their similarity by using cluster analysis. The analysis resulted in a small number of clusters representing groups of spatial concentration profiles. All clusters show nano-TiO2 accumulation in the sediment layer, supporting results from previous studies. Analysis of the characteristic features of each cluster demonstrated a strong association between the water conditions in regions close to the ENP emission source and the cluster membership of the corresponding spatial concentration profiles. In particular, water compositions favoring heteroaggregation between the ENPs and suspended particulate matter resulted in clusters of low variability. These conditions are, therefore, reliable predictors of the eventual fate of the modeled ENPs. The conclusions from this study are also valid for ENP fate in other large river systems. Our results, therefore, shift the focus of future modeling and experimental research of ENP environmental fate to the water characteristic in regions near the expected ENP emission sources. Under conditions favoring heteroaggregation in these

  13. Modeling complex effects of multiple environmental stresses on carbon dynamics of Mid-Atlantic temperate forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough

    2007-01-01

    We used our GIS variant of the PnET-CN model to investigate changes of forest carbon stocks and fluxes in Mid-Atlantic temperate forests over the last century (1900-2000). Forests in this region are affected by multiple environmental changes including climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, N deposition and tropospheric ozone, and extensive land disturbances. Our...

  14. Simple versus complex models of trait evolution and stasis as a response to environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Gene; Hopkins, Melanie J.; Lidgard, Scott

    2015-04-01

    Previous analyses of evolutionary patterns, or modes, in fossil lineages have focused overwhelmingly on three simple models: stasis, random walks, and directional evolution. Here we use likelihood methods to fit an expanded set of evolutionary models to a large compilation of ancestor-descendant series of populations from the fossil record. In addition to the standard three models, we assess more complex models with punctuations and shifts from one evolutionary mode to another. As in previous studies, we find that stasis is common in the fossil record, as is a strict version of stasis that entails no real evolutionary changes. Incidence of directional evolution is relatively low (13%), but higher than in previous studies because our analytical approach can more sensitively detect noisy trends. Complex evolutionary models are often favored, overwhelmingly so for sequences comprising many samples. This finding is consistent with evolutionary dynamics that are, in reality, more complex than any of the models we consider. Furthermore, the timing of shifts in evolutionary dynamics varies among traits measured from the same series. Finally, we use our empirical collection of evolutionary sequences and a long and highly resolved proxy for global climate to inform simulations in which traits adaptively track temperature changes over time. When realistically calibrated, we find that this simple model can reproduce important aspects of our paleontological results. We conclude that observed paleontological patterns, including the prevalence of stasis, need not be inconsistent with adaptive evolution, even in the face of unstable physical environments.

  15. Strategic planning model for achieving stakeholder involvement in environmental at DOE weapons complex sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, G.

    1994-01-01

    Within today's reality a public manager often needs to develop cooperative relationships among a number of individual, program, and organizational stakeholders to accomplish particular projects, programs, or policies. A DOE site manager charged with accomplishing environmental restoration and conversion at former weapons production sites is no exception. Important reasons for this include the technical and political complexity of the clean-up problem; limits on the funding, authority, and other resources available to DOE; authority, responsibilities, and interests of other stakeholders; and the ever present potential for conflict among stakeholders, and power of any one to hinder, if not halt, the clean-up process if conflicts aren't managed and cooperative relationships established and maintained

  16. Addressing Complexity in Environmental Management and Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Kirschke

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Governance for complex problem solving has been increasingly discussed in environmental sustainability research. Above all, researchers continuously observe that sustainability problems are complex or “wicked”, and suggest participatory models to address these problems in practice. In order to add to this debate, this study suggests a more differentiated theoretical approach to define governance for complex environmental problem solving than in previous studies. The approach consists of two vital steps: First, we operationalize complexity and define management strategies for solving environmental sustainability problems based on findings from psychology research. Second, we identify governance strategies that facilitate these management strategies. Linking those strategies suggests that the role of diverse institutions, actors, and interactions differs for five key dimensions of complexity: goals, variables, dynamics, interconnections, and informational uncertainty. The results strengthen systematic analyses of environmental sustainability problems in both theory and practice.

  17. Documentation of a simple environmental pathways model of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, R.D.; Case, M.J.; Rope, S.K.

    1985-09-01

    The DOSTOMAN code calculates compartment inventories of radioactivity for all model compartments defined. Calculations are performed for the entire period of time simulated, at user-designated intervals. This output permits tracking of radionuclide movement within and from the disposal site. Simulation runs were performed for 60 Co, 90 Sr, 137 Cs, 239 Pu, and 241 Am for the duration of the site's operational period. For calculational purposes only, this period was assumed to extend to the year 2093. Sensitivity analyses, in which the relative importance of biotic and abiotic transport processes in radionuclide migration was evaluated, were performed for the EDS and CDS models. Interactive effects between transport processes were examined, as were time-dependent changes in process sensitivities. Results of the analyses are useful in defining the adequacy of present environmental monitoring activities. The current monitoring program addresses all pertinent environmental media. The level of comprehensiveness in sampling each medium, however, does not reflect differences in importance of the various transport processes. A number of special studies, in progress or planned, are expected to aid in improving the monitoring program. Limitations of the DOSTOMAN model, as applied to the Radioactive Waste Management Complex, are discussed. Modeling of atmospheric and hydrologic dispersion of contaminants, and consideration of seasonal dynamics of transport processes, are identified as most deserving of attention. It is recognized that, to the extent that further refinements of the monitoring program are based on model projections, resolution of these limitations is important. Recommendations are offered for work needed to deal with these limitations, many of which are already planned for implementation

  18. Integrated and spatially explicit modelling of the economic value of complex environmental change and its indirect effects

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Posen, Paulette

    2012-01-01

    Arguably the greatest challenge to contemporary research is to capture the inter-relatedness and complexity of the real world environment within models so at to better inform decision makers of the accurate and complete consequences of differing options. The paper presents an integrated model of the consequence of climate change upon land use and the secondary and subsequent effects arising subsequently. The model predicts the shift in land use which climate change is likely to induce and the...

  19. Environmental problems in the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fultz, K.O.

    1989-04-01

    This paper provide the authors' views on the environmental problems facing the Department of Energy. Testimony is based on a large body of work, over 50 reports and testimonies since 1981, on environmental, safety, and health aspects of DOE's nuclear weapons complex. This work has shown that the complex faces a wide variety of serious problem areas including aging facilities, safety concerns which have shut down DOE's production reactors, and environmental cleanup

  20. Environmental Modeling Center

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Environmental Modeling Center provides the computational tools to perform geostatistical analysis, to model ground water and atmospheric releases for comparison...

  1. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  2. Complex matrix model duality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, T.W.

    2010-11-01

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

  3. Complex matrix model duality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, T.W.

    2010-11-15

    The same complex matrix model calculates both tachyon scattering for the c=1 non-critical string at the self-dual radius and certain correlation functions of half-BPS operators in N=4 super- Yang-Mills. It is dual to another complex matrix model where the couplings of the first model are encoded in the Kontsevich-like variables of the second. The duality between the theories is mirrored by the duality of their Feynman diagrams. Analogously to the Hermitian Kontsevich- Penner model, the correlation functions of the second model can be written as sums over discrete points in subspaces of the moduli space of punctured Riemann surfaces. (orig.)

  4. Assembling large, complex environmental metagenomes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howe, A. C. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Plant Soil and Microbial Sciences; Jansson, J. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI), Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division; Malfatti, S. A. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI), Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Tringe, S. G. [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI), Walnut Creek, CA (United States); Tiedje, J. M. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Plant Soil and Microbial Sciences; Brown, C. T. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States). Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, Computer Science and Engineering

    2012-12-28

    The large volumes of sequencing data required to sample complex environments deeply pose new challenges to sequence analysis approaches. De novo metagenomic assembly effectively reduces the total amount of data to be analyzed but requires significant computational resources. We apply two pre-assembly filtering approaches, digital normalization and partitioning, to make large metagenome assemblies more computationaly tractable. Using a human gut mock community dataset, we demonstrate that these methods result in assemblies nearly identical to assemblies from unprocessed data. We then assemble two large soil metagenomes from matched Iowa corn and native prairie soils. The predicted functional content and phylogenetic origin of the assembled contigs indicate significant taxonomic differences despite similar function. The assembly strategies presented are generic and can be extended to any metagenome; full source code is freely available under a BSD license.

  5. Intertextuality for Handling Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byhring, Anne Kristine; Knain, Erik

    2016-01-01

    Nowhere is the need for handling complexity more pertinent than in addressing environmental issues. Our study explores students' situated constructs of complexity in unfolding discourses on socio-scientific issues. Students' dialogues in two group-work episodes are analysed in detail, with tools from Systemic Functional Linguistics. We identify…

  6. Use of a simplified pathways model to improve the environmental surveillance program at the radioactive waste management complex of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Case, M.J.; Rope, S.K.

    1985-01-01

    Systems analysis, including a simple pathways model based on first-order kinetics, is a useful way to design or improve environmental monitoring networks. This method allows investigators and administrators to consider interactions that may be occurring in the system and provides guidance in determining the need to collect data on various system components and processes. A simplified pathways model of radionuclide movement from low-level waste and transuranic waste buried at the Radioactive Waste Management Complex was developed (1) to identify critical pathways that should be monitored and (2) to identify key input parameters that need investigation by special studies. The model was modified from the Savannah River Laboratory DOSTOMAN code. Site-specific data were used in the model, if available. Physical and biological pathways include airborne and waterborne transport of surface soil, subsurface migration to the aquifer, waste container degradation, plant uptake, small mammal burrowing, and a few simplified food chain pathways. The model was run using a set of radionuclides determined to be significant in terms of relative hazard. Critical transport pathways which should be monitored were selected based on relative influence on model results. Key input parameters were identified for possible special studies by evaluating the sensitivity of model response to the parameters used to define transport pathways. A description of the approaches used and the guidance recommended to improve the environmental surveillance program are presented in this paper. 5 references, 1 figure, 2 tables

  7. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  8. Modeling Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Boccara, Nino

    2010-01-01

    Modeling Complex Systems, 2nd Edition, explores the process of modeling complex systems, providing examples from such diverse fields as ecology, epidemiology, sociology, seismology, and economics. It illustrates how models of complex systems are built and provides indispensable mathematical tools for studying their dynamics. This vital introductory text is useful for advanced undergraduate students in various scientific disciplines, and serves as an important reference book for graduate students and young researchers. This enhanced second edition includes: . -recent research results and bibliographic references -extra footnotes which provide biographical information on cited scientists who have made significant contributions to the field -new and improved worked-out examples to aid a student’s comprehension of the content -exercises to challenge the reader and complement the material Nino Boccara is also the author of Essentials of Mathematica: With Applications to Mathematics and Physics (Springer, 2007).

  9. Modeling environmental policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, W.E.; McDonald, L.A.

    1997-01-01

    The eight book chapters demonstrate the link between the physical models of the environment and the policy analysis in support of policy making. Each chapter addresses an environmental policy issue using a quantitative modeling approach. The volume addresses three general areas of environmental policy - non-point source pollution in the agricultural sector, pollution generated in the extractive industries, and transboundary pollutants from burning fossil fuels. The book concludes by discussing the modeling efforts and the use of mathematical models in general. Chapters are entitled: modeling environmental policy: an introduction; modeling nonpoint source pollution in an integrated system (agri-ecological); modeling environmental and trade policy linkages: the case of EU and US agriculture; modeling ecosystem constraints in the Clean Water Act: a case study in Clearwater National Forest (subject to discharge from metal mining waste); costs and benefits of coke oven emission controls; modeling equilibria and risk under global environmental constraints (discussing energy and environmental interrelations); relative contribution of the enhanced greenhouse effect on the coastal changes in Louisiana; and the use of mathematical models in policy evaluations: comments. The paper on coke area emission controls has been abstracted separately for the IEA Coal Research CD-ROM

  10. Modeling Complex Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreckenberg, M

    2004-01-01

    This book by Nino Boccara presents a compilation of model systems commonly termed as 'complex'. It starts with a definition of the systems under consideration and how to build up a model to describe the complex dynamics. The subsequent chapters are devoted to various categories of mean-field type models (differential and recurrence equations, chaos) and of agent-based models (cellular automata, networks and power-law distributions). Each chapter is supplemented by a number of exercises and their solutions. The table of contents looks a little arbitrary but the author took the most prominent model systems investigated over the years (and up until now there has been no unified theory covering the various aspects of complex dynamics). The model systems are explained by looking at a number of applications in various fields. The book is written as a textbook for interested students as well as serving as a comprehensive reference for experts. It is an ideal source for topics to be presented in a lecture on dynamics of complex systems. This is the first book on this 'wide' topic and I have long awaited such a book (in fact I planned to write it myself but this is much better than I could ever have written it!). Only section 6 on cellular automata is a little too limited to the author's point of view and one would have expected more about the famous Domany-Kinzel model (and more accurate citation!). In my opinion this is one of the best textbooks published during the last decade and even experts can learn a lot from it. Hopefully there will be an actualization after, say, five years since this field is growing so quickly. The price is too high for students but this, unfortunately, is the normal case today. Nevertheless I think it will be a great success! (book review)

  11. Modeling complexes of modeled proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anishchenko, Ivan; Kundrotas, Petras J; Vakser, Ilya A

    2017-03-01

    Structural characterization of proteins is essential for understanding life processes at the molecular level. However, only a fraction of known proteins have experimentally determined structures. This fraction is even smaller for protein-protein complexes. Thus, structural modeling of protein-protein interactions (docking) primarily has to rely on modeled structures of the individual proteins, which typically are less accurate than the experimentally determined ones. Such "double" modeling is the Grand Challenge of structural reconstruction of the interactome. Yet it remains so far largely untested in a systematic way. We present a comprehensive validation of template-based and free docking on a set of 165 complexes, where each protein model has six levels of structural accuracy, from 1 to 6 Å C α RMSD. Many template-based docking predictions fall into acceptable quality category, according to the CAPRI criteria, even for highly inaccurate proteins (5-6 Å RMSD), although the number of such models (and, consequently, the docking success rate) drops significantly for models with RMSD > 4 Å. The results show that the existing docking methodologies can be successfully applied to protein models with a broad range of structural accuracy, and the template-based docking is much less sensitive to inaccuracies of protein models than the free docking. Proteins 2017; 85:470-478. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  13. Polystochastic Models for Complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Iordache, Octavian

    2010-01-01

    This book is devoted to complexity understanding and management, considered as the main source of efficiency and prosperity for the next decades. Divided into six chapters, the book begins with a presentation of basic concepts as complexity, emergence and closure. The second chapter looks to methods and introduces polystochastic models, the wave equation, possibilities and entropy. The third chapter focusing on physical and chemical systems analyzes flow-sheet synthesis, cyclic operations of separation, drug delivery systems and entropy production. Biomimetic systems represent the main objective of the fourth chapter. Case studies refer to bio-inspired calculation methods, to the role of artificial genetic codes, neural networks and neural codes for evolutionary calculus and for evolvable circuits as biomimetic devices. The fifth chapter, taking its inspiration from systems sciences and cognitive sciences looks to engineering design, case base reasoning methods, failure analysis, and multi-agent manufacturing...

  14. Strategies for Evaluating Complex Environmental Education Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, V.

    2011-12-01

    Evidence for the effectiveness of environmental education programs has been difficult to establish for many reasons. Chief among them are the lack of clear program objectives and an inability to conceptualize how environmental education programs work. Both can lead to evaluations that make claims that are difficult to substantiate, such as significant changes in student achievement levels or behavioral changes based on acquisition of knowledge. Many of these challenges can be addressed by establishing the program theory and developing a logic model. However, claims of impact on larger societal outcomes are difficult to attribute solely to program activities. Contribution analysis may offer a promising method for addressing this challenge. Rather than attempt to definitively and causally link a program's activities to desired results, contribution analysis seeks to provide plausible evidence that can reduce uncertainty regarding the 'difference' a program is making to observed outcomes. It sets out to verify the theory of change behind a program and, at the same time, takes into consideration other influencing factors. Contribution analysis is useful in situations where the program is not experimental-there is little or no scope for varying how the program is implemented-and the program has been funded on the basis of a theory of change. In this paper, the author reviews the feasibility of using contribution analysis as a way of evaluating the impact of the GLOBE program, an environmental science and education program. Initially conceptualized by Al Gore in 1995, the program's implementation model is based on worldwide environmental monitoring by students and scientists around the globe. This paper will make a significant and timely contribution to the field of evaluation, and specifically environmental education evaluation by examining the usefulness of this analysis for developing evidence to assess the impact of environmental education programs.

  15. Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

    1982-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report

  16. Study of Environmental Data Complexity using Extreme Learning Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuenberger, Michael; Kanevski, Mikhail

    2017-04-01

    The main goals of environmental data science using machine learning algorithm deal, in a broad sense, around the calibration, the prediction and the visualization of hidden relationship between input and output variables. In order to optimize the models and to understand the phenomenon under study, the characterization of the complexity (at different levels) should be taken into account. Therefore, the identification of the linear or non-linear behavior between input and output variables adds valuable information for the knowledge of the phenomenon complexity. The present research highlights and investigates the different issues that can occur when identifying the complexity (linear/non-linear) of environmental data using machine learning algorithm. In particular, the main attention is paid to the description of a self-consistent methodology for the use of Extreme Learning Machines (ELM, Huang et al., 2006), which recently gained a great popularity. By applying two ELM models (with linear and non-linear activation functions) and by comparing their efficiency, quantification of the linearity can be evaluated. The considered approach is accompanied by simulated and real high dimensional and multivariate data case studies. In conclusion, the current challenges and future development in complexity quantification using environmental data mining are discussed. References - Huang, G.-B., Zhu, Q.-Y., Siew, C.-K., 2006. Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70 (1-3), 489-501. - Kanevski, M., Pozdnoukhov, A., Timonin, V., 2009. Machine Learning for Spatial Environmental Data. EPFL Press; Lausanne, Switzerland, p.392. - Leuenberger, M., Kanevski, M., 2015. Extreme Learning Machines for spatial environmental data. Computers and Geosciences 85, 64-73.

  17. Advances in complex societal, environmental and engineered systems

    CERN Document Server

    Essaaidi, Mohammad

    2017-01-01

    This book addresses recent technological progress that has led to an increased complexity in many natural and artificial systems. The resulting complexity research due to the emergence of new properties and spatio-temporal interactions among a large number of system elements - and between the system and its environment - is the primary focus of this text. This volume is divided into three parts: Part one focuses on societal and ecological systems, Part two deals with approaches for understanding, modeling, predicting and mastering socio-technical systems, and Part three includes real-life examples. Each chapter has its own special features; it is a self-contained contribution of distinguished experts working on different fields of science and technology relevant to the study of complex systems. Advances in Complex Systems of Contemporary Reality: Societal, Environmental and Engineered Systems will provide postgraduate students, researchers and managers with qualitative and quantitative methods for handling th...

  18. Environmental Measurements and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Environmental measurement is any data collection activity involving the assessment of chemical, physical, or biological factors in the environment which affect human health. Learn more about these programs and tools that aid in environmental decisions

  19. Appropriate complexity landscape modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Eppinga, Maarten B.; Passalacqua, Paola; Getz, Wayne M.; Rose, Kenneth A.; Liang, Man

    Advances in computing technology, new and ongoing restoration initiatives, concerns about climate change's effects, and the increasing interdisciplinarity of research have encouraged the development of landscape-scale mechanistic models of coupled ecological-geophysical systems. However,

  20. Environmental forensic research for emerging contaminants in complex environmental matrices

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency has established criteria to address many of the significant traditional pollutants demonstrated to have adverse affects on environmental quality. However, new chemicals are being created almost daily, and these new chemicals, as ...

  1. EPIC Forest LAI Dataset: LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale, biogeochemical model) on four forest complexes spanning three physiographic provinces in VA and NC.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This data depicts calculated and validated LAI estimates generated from the USDA Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model (a widely used, field-scale,...

  2. Environmental Perception as a Diagnostic Probe of Environmental Complexity Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Mirlaine R.; Macedo, Renato L. G.; Freitas, Matheus P.; Nunes, Cleiton A.; Venturin, Nelson

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Educational methods to diagnose and improve the level of environmental conception are required. The present work reports a methodology based on studies about the environmental perception of a university public, divided into general students and those related to the forest sciences, who are involved with disciplines and researches related…

  3. Macro-economic environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wier, M.

    1993-01-01

    In the present report, an introduction to macro-economic environmental models is given. The role of the models as a tool for policy analysis is discussed. Future applications, as well as the limitations given by the data, are brought into focus. The economic-ecological system is described. A set of guidelines for implementation of the system in a traditional economic macro-model is proposed. The characteristics of empirical national and international environmental macro-economic models so far are highlighted. Special attention is paid to main economic causalities and their consequences for the environmental policy recommendations sat by the models. (au) (41 refs.)

  4. Characterising performance of environmental models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bennett, N.D.; Croke, B.F.W.; Guariso, G.; Guillaume, J.H.A.; Hamilton, S.H.; Jakeman, A.J.; Marsili-Libelli, S.; Newham, L.T.H.; Norton, J.; Perrin, C.; Pierce, S.; Robson, B.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.; Fath, B.D.; Andreassian, V.

    2013-01-01

    In order to use environmental models effectively for management and decision-making, it is vital to establish an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. This paper reviews techniques available across various fields for characterising the performance of environmental models with focus

  5. Environmental Satellite Models for a Macroeconomic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, F.; Grinderslev, D.; Werner, M.

    2003-01-01

    To support national environmental policy, it is desirable to forecast and analyse environmental indicators consistently with economic variables. However, environmental indicators are physical measures linked to physical activities that are not specified in economic models. One way to deal with this is to develop environmental satellite models linked to economic models. The system of models presented gives a frame of reference where emissions of greenhouse gases, acid gases, and leaching of nutrients to the aquatic environment are analysed in line with - and consistently with - macroeconomic variables. This paper gives an overview of the data and the satellite models. Finally, the results of applying the model system to calculate the impacts on emissions and the economy are reviewed in a few illustrative examples. The models have been developed for Denmark; however, most of the environmental data used are from the CORINAIR system implemented in numerous countries

  6. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  7. Modelling environmental dynamics. Advances in goematic solutions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paegelow, Martin [Toulouse-2 Univ., 31 (France). GEODE UMR 5602 CNRS; Camacho Olmedo, Maria Teresa (eds.) [Granada Univ (Spain). Dpto. de Analisis Geografico Regional y Geografia Fisica

    2008-07-01

    Modelling environmental dynamics is critical to understanding and predicting the evolution of the environment in response to the large number of influences including urbanisation, climate change and deforestation. Simulation and modelling provide support for decision making in environmental management. The first chapter introduces terminology and provides an overview of methodological modelling approaches which may be applied to environmental and complex dynamics. Based on this introduction this book illustrates various models applied to a large variety of themes: deforestation in tropical regions, fire risk, natural reforestation in European mountains, agriculture, biodiversity, urbanism, climate change and land management for decision support, etc. These case studies, provided by a large international spectrum of researchers and presented in a uniform structure, focus particularly on methods and model validation so that this book is not only aimed at researchers and graduates but also at professionals. (orig.)

  8. Correcting environmental problems facing the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rezendes, V.S.

    1990-06-01

    This report discusses DOE's efforts to correct the environmental problems facing the nuclear weapons complex. It focuses on three main points. First, the weapons complex faces a variety of serious and costly environmental problems. Second, during the past year, DOE has made some important changes to its organization that should help change its management focus from one that emphasizes materials production to one that more clearly focuses on environmental concerns. Third, because resolution of DOE's environmental problems will require considerable resources during a period of budgetary constraints, it is imperative that DOE have internal controls in place to ensure that resources are spent efficiently

  9. Environmental Complexity: ethic-environmental propositions of the Latin- American Environmental Thought

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguera de Echeverri, Ana Patricia

    2007-01-01

    In this article, are compiled the most important ethic-environmental propositions of the Latin- American Environmental Thought, that had been growing up 30 years ago. In it are authors outlined in the field of the philosophic environmental thought, as the philosopher and Colombian thinker, of Latin-American transcendence, Augusto Angel Maya, who pustules the possibility of build en Ethical - Esthetic Environmental Philosophy, in fact of the Modern Philosophy have been metaphysic, even in the empiric, positivist and neo-positivist tendencies. It has been outlined the Enrique Leff's work, Mexican, who proposes his concepts of Complexity and Environmental Known as an initial point of an ethic in the education, science and technology into of an systemic and holistic relations. Equally, the Julio Carrizosa's ethical - esthetic proposition, also Colombian, which this essay shows as a fundamental political propose against Colombian problems as violence and exclusion. The propositions of Colombian philosophers of big relevance in the politic-moral philosophy had become in a public and communicative environmental ethic, that's the case of Guillermo Hoyos Vasquez and other thinkers as in Colombia and so other Latin-American countries which are shown in this space, with the finality of to pick up in a critical way our ideas about the possibility of an environmental ethic, that means an decentred ethic, with out subject and object, and systemic ethic, where the values has come being constructed 2.500 millions years ago, of which we are pure threads, an ethic that pass of been an object to be first a value in his greater sense

  10. The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James G Dyke

    Full Text Available The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

  11. The emergence of environmental homeostasis in complex ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyke, James G; Weaver, Iain S

    2013-01-01

    The Earth, with its core-driven magnetic field, convective mantle, mobile lid tectonics, oceans of liquid water, dynamic climate and abundant life is arguably the most complex system in the known universe. This system has exhibited stability in the sense of, bar a number of notable exceptions, surface temperature remaining within the bounds required for liquid water and so a significant biosphere. Explanations for this range from anthropic principles in which the Earth was essentially lucky, to homeostatic Gaia in which the abiotic and biotic components of the Earth system self-organise into homeostatic states that are robust to a wide range of external perturbations. Here we present results from a conceptual model that demonstrates the emergence of homeostasis as a consequence of the feedback loop operating between life and its environment. Formulating the model in terms of Gaussian processes allows the development of novel computational methods in order to provide solutions. We find that the stability of this system will typically increase then remain constant with an increase in biological diversity and that the number of attractors within the phase space exponentially increases with the number of environmental variables while the probability of the system being in an attractor that lies within prescribed boundaries decreases approximately linearly. We argue that the cybernetic concept of rein control provides insights into how this model system, and potentially any system that is comprised of biological to environmental feedback loops, self-organises into homeostatic states.

  12. Computational models of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Dabbaghian, Vahid

    2014-01-01

    Computational and mathematical models provide us with the opportunities to investigate the complexities of real world problems. They allow us to apply our best analytical methods to define problems in a clearly mathematical manner and exhaustively test our solutions before committing expensive resources. This is made possible by assuming parameter(s) in a bounded environment, allowing for controllable experimentation, not always possible in live scenarios. For example, simulation of computational models allows the testing of theories in a manner that is both fundamentally deductive and experimental in nature. The main ingredients for such research ideas come from multiple disciplines and the importance of interdisciplinary research is well recognized by the scientific community. This book provides a window to the novel endeavours of the research communities to present their works by highlighting the value of computational modelling as a research tool when investigating complex systems. We hope that the reader...

  13. Environmental management at Nuclear Fuel Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhary, S.; Kalidas, R.

    2005-01-01

    Nuclear Fuel Complex (NFC) a unit of Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) is manufacturing and supplying fuel assemblies and structurals for Atomic Power Reactors, Seamless Stainless Steel/ Special Alloy Tubes and high purity/special materials for various industries including Atomic Energy, Space and Electronics. NFC is spread over about 200 acres area. It consists of various chemical, metallurgical, fabrication and assembly plants engaged in processing uranium from concentrate to final fuel assembly, processing zirconium from ore to metallic products and processing various special high purity materials from ore or intermediate level to the final product. The plants were commissioned in the early seventies and capacities of these plants have been periodically enhanced to cater to the growing demands of the Indian Nuclear Industry. In the two streams of plants processing Uranium and zirconium, various types and categories including low level radioactive wastes are generated. These require proper handling and disposal. The overall management of radioactive and other waste aims at minimizing the generation and release to the environment. In this presentation, the environment management methodologies as practiced in Nuclear Fuel Complex are discussed. (author)

  14. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  15. Integrated Environmental Assessment Modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guardanz, R; Gimeno, B S; Bermejo, V; Elvira, S; Martin, F; Palacios, M; Rodriguez, E; Donaire, I [Ciemat, Madrid (Spain)

    2000-07-01

    This report describes the results of the Spanish participation in the project Coupling CORINAIR data to cost-effect emission reduction strategies based on critical threshold. (EU/LIFE97/ENV/FIN/336). The subproject has focused on three tasks. Develop tools to improve knowledge on the spatial and temporal details of emissions of air pollutants in Spain. Exploit existing experimental information on plant response to air pollutants in temperate ecosystem and Integrate these findings in a modelling framework that can asses with more accuracy the impact of air pollutants to temperate ecosystems. The results obtained during the execution of this project have significantly improved the models of the impact of alternative emission control strategies on ecosystems and crops in the Iberian Peninsula. (Author) 375 refs.

  16. Complexity-aware simple modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Schiavon, Mariana; El-Samad, Hana

    2018-02-26

    Mathematical models continue to be essential for deepening our understanding of biology. On one extreme, simple or small-scale models help delineate general biological principles. However, the parsimony of detail in these models as well as their assumption of modularity and insulation make them inaccurate for describing quantitative features. On the other extreme, large-scale and detailed models can quantitatively recapitulate a phenotype of interest, but have to rely on many unknown parameters, making them often difficult to parse mechanistically and to use for extracting general principles. We discuss some examples of a new approach-complexity-aware simple modeling-that can bridge the gap between the small-scale and large-scale approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Complex Networks in Psychological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedemann, R. S.; Carvalho, L. S. A. V. D.; Donangelo, R.

    We develop schematic, self-organizing, neural-network models to describe mechanisms associated with mental processes, by a neurocomputational substrate. These models are examples of real world complex networks with interesting general topological structures. Considering dopaminergic signal-to-noise neuronal modulation in the central nervous system, we propose neural network models to explain development of cortical map structure and dynamics of memory access, and unify different mental processes into a single neurocomputational substrate. Based on our neural network models, neurotic behavior may be understood as an associative memory process in the brain, and the linguistic, symbolic associative process involved in psychoanalytic working-through can be mapped onto a corresponding process of reconfiguration of the neural network. The models are illustrated through computer simulations, where we varied dopaminergic modulation and observed the self-organizing emergent patterns at the resulting semantic map, interpreting them as different manifestations of mental functioning, from psychotic through to normal and neurotic behavior, and creativity.

  18. Complex fluids modeling and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Saramito, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a comprehensive overview of the modeling of complex fluids, including many common substances, such as toothpaste, hair gel, mayonnaise, liquid foam, cement and blood, which cannot be described by Navier-Stokes equations. It also offers an up-to-date mathematical and numerical analysis of the corresponding equations, as well as several practical numerical algorithms and software solutions for the approximation of the solutions. It discusses industrial (molten plastics, forming process), geophysical (mud flows, volcanic lava, glaciers and snow avalanches), and biological (blood flows, tissues) modeling applications. This book is a valuable resource for undergraduate students and researchers in applied mathematics, mechanical engineering and physics.

  19. Complexity and interdisciplinary approaches to environmental research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammen, Daniel M.

    2013-03-01

    The launch of volume 8 of Environmental Research Letters (ERL) comes at a critical time in terms of innovations and exciting areas of science, but particularly in the areas linking environmental research and action. The most recent climate change Conference of the Parties meeting (COP), in Doha in December 2012, has now come and gone. As has been dissected in the press, very little was accomplished. Some will see this as a failure, as I do, and others will reasonably enough note that this meeting, the 18th such COP was1 never intended to be a milestone moment. The current plan, in fact, is for a 'post-Kyoto' international climate agreement to be adopted only at the COP20 summit in December 2015. As we lead up to COP20, and potentially other regional or national approaches to climate protection, innovations in science, innovations in policy tools, and political commitment must come together. The science of climate change only continues to get clearer and clearer, and bleaker [1]. Later this year the IPCC will release its Fifth Assessment Report, AR5. The draft versions are out for review now. ERL has published a number of papers on climate change science, mitigation and adaptation, but one area where the world needs a particular focus is on the nexus of science and action. A summary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings from the first assessment report (FAR; 1990) to the latest report is presented in figure 1. This graphic is specifically not about the scientific record alone. What is most important about this figure is the juxtaposition of the language of science and the language of ... language. Figure 1. Figure 1. A superposition of the state of climate science in three key data sets, and the dates of the first, second, third and fourth assessment reports (FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4, respectively) plotted as vertical lines. On the right are the key statements from each of these reports, along with the conclusion of the Special Report on

  20. Communication models in environmental health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidotti, Tee L

    2013-01-01

    Communication models common in environmental health are not well represented in the literature on health communication. Risk communication is a systematic approach to conveying essential information about a specific environmental issue and a framework for thinking about community risk and the alternatives for dealing with it. Crisis communication is intended to provide essential information to people facing an emergency in order to mitigate its effects and to enable them to make appropriate decisions, and it is primarily used in emergency management. Corporate communication is intended to achieve a change in attitude or perception of an organization, and its role in environmental health is usually public relations or to rehabilitate a damaged reputation. Environmental health education is a more didactic approach to science education with respect to health and the environment. Social marketing uses conventional marketing methods to achieve a socially desirable purpose but is more heavily used in health promotion generally. Communication models and styles in environmental health are specialized to serve the needs of the field in communicating with the community. They are highly structured and executed in different ways but have in common a relative lack of emphasis on changing personal or lifestyle behavior compared with health promotion and public health in general and a tendency to emphasize content on specific environmental issues and decision frameworks for protecting oneself or the community through collective action.

  1. Compliance with Environmental Regulations through Complex Geo-Event Processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Herrera

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In a context of e-government, there are usually regulatory compliance requirements that support systems must monitor, control and enforce. These requirements may come from environmental laws and regulations that aim to protect the natural environment and mitigate the effects of pollution on human health and ecosystems. Monitoring compliance with these requirements involves processing a large volume of data from different sources, which is a major challenge. This volume is also increased with data coming from autonomous sensors (e.g. reporting carbon emission in protected areas and from citizens providing information (e.g. illegal dumping in a voluntary way. Complex Event Processing (CEP technologies allow processing large amount of event data and detecting patterns from them. However, they do not provide native support for the geographic dimension of events which is essential for monitoring requirements which apply to specific geographic areas. This paper proposes a geospatial extension for CEP that allows monitoring environmental requirements considering the geographic location of the processed data. We extend an existing platform-independent, model-driven approach for CEP adding the geographic location to events and specifying patterns using geographic operators. The use and technical feasibility of the proposal is shown through the development of a case study and the implementation of a prototype.

  2. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  3. A complex social-ecological disaster: Environmentally induced forced migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rechkemmer, Andreas; O'Connor, Ashley; Rai, Abha; Decker Sparks, Jessica L; Mudliar, Pranietha; Shultz, James M

    2016-01-01

    In the 21 st century, global issues are increasingly characterized by inter-connectedness and complexity. Global environmental change, and climate change in particular, has become a powerful driver and catalyst of forced migration and internal displacement of people. Environmental migrants may far outnumber any other group of displaced people and refugees in the years to come. Deeper scientific integration, especially across the social sciences, is a prerequisite to tackle this issue.

  4. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  5. Health and environmental effects of complex chemical mixtures: proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) of the Department of Energy supports a broad long-term research program on human health and environmental effects from potential exposure to energy-related complex chemical mixtures. The program seeks basic mechanistic data on the effects of complex mixtures at the cellular, molecular, and whole animal levels to aid in predicting human health effects and seeks ecological data on biological and physical transformations in the mixtures, concentrations of the mixtures in various compartments of the environment, and potential routes for human exposure to these mixtures (e.g., food chain). On June 17-18, 1985, OHER held its First Annual Technical Meeting on the Complex Chemical Mixtures Program in Chicago, IL. The primary purpose of the meeting was to enable principal investigators to report the research status and accomplishments of ongoing complex chemical mixture studies supported by OHER. To help focus future research directions round table discussions were conducted.

  6. Modeling Environmental Literacy of University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teksoz, Gaye; Sahin, Elvan; Tekkaya-Oztekin, Ceren

    2012-01-01

    The present study proposed an Environmental Literacy Components Model to explain how environmental attitudes, environmental responsibility, environmental concern, and environmental knowledge as well as outdoor activities related to each other. A total of 1,345 university students responded to an environmental literacy survey (Kaplowitz and Levine…

  7. Environmental impact assessment for the Nova projects (Building 391 complex)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Odell, B.N.

    1979-01-01

    The environmental impact assessment of the Nova projects (Building 391 Complex) describes (1) the proposed actions, (2) the existing environment in and around the Livermore Valley, and (3) the potential environmental impacts from the construction and operation of these facilities. It shows that the proposed action does not conflict with any Federal, State, Regional, or Local Plans and Programs. Possible alternatives to the proposed action are discussed. However, it is concluded that the proposed actions were the most reasonable of the alternatives and would involve relatively minor adverse environmental impacts

  8. Environmental Survey preliminary report, Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex, Piketon, Ohio

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex (PUEC), conducted August 4 through August 15, 1986. The Survey is being conducted by an interdisciplinary team of environmental specialists, led and managed by the Office of Environment, Safety and Health's Office of Environmental Audit. Team specialists are being supplied by a private contractor. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations performed at PUEC, and interviews with site personnel. The Survey team developed a Sampling and Analysis Plan to assist in further assessing certain of the environmental problems identified during its on-site activities. The Sampling and Analysis Plan will be executed by Argonne National Laboratory. When completed, the results will be incorporated into the PUEC Environmental Survey Interim Report. The Interim Report will reflect the final determinations of the PUEC Survey. 55 refs., 22 figs., 21 tabs

  9. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  10. Environmental monitoring program for Itataia industrial complex before operational phase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Condessa, M.L.M.B.

    1982-01-01

    This environmental monitoring program aims to characterize the environment in adjacent area of Itataia Industrial Complex. The places and frequencies of samples and measurements, as well as analysis and parameters to be measured in each type of samples are presented. (C.M.) [pt

  11. Environmental layout complexity affects neural activity during navigation in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slone, Edward; Burles, Ford; Iaria, Giuseppe

    2016-05-01

    Navigating large-scale surroundings is a fundamental ability. In humans, it is commonly assumed that navigational performance is affected by individual differences, such as age, sex, and cognitive strategies adopted for orientation. We recently showed that the layout of the environment itself also influences how well people are able to find their way within it, yet it remains unclear whether differences in environmental complexity are associated with changes in brain activity during navigation. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to investigate how the brain responds to a change in environmental complexity by asking participants to perform a navigation task in two large-scale virtual environments that differed solely in interconnection density, a measure of complexity defined as the average number of directional choices at decision points. The results showed that navigation in the simpler, less interconnected environment was faster and more accurate relative to the complex environment, and such performance was associated with increased activity in a number of brain areas (i.e. precuneus, retrosplenial cortex, and hippocampus) known to be involved in mental imagery, navigation, and memory. These findings provide novel evidence that environmental complexity not only affects navigational behaviour, but also modulates activity in brain regions that are important for successful orientation and navigation. © 2016 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  13. Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

    2013-01-01

    an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

  14. Environmental problems and economic development in an endogenous fertility model

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Joest; Martin Quaas; Johannes Schiller

    2006-01-01

    Population growth is often viewed as a most oppressive global problem with respect to environmental deterioration, but the relationships between population development, economic dynamics and environmental pollution are complex due to various feedback mechanisms. We analyze society’s economic decisions on birth rates, investment into human and physical capital, and polluting emissions within an optimal control model of the coupled demographic-economic-environmental system. We show that a long-...

  15. Proposing an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meulengracht Jensen, Peter; Johansen, John; Wæhrens, Brian Vejrum

    2013-01-01

    that the EEA model can be used in global organizations to differentiate environmental efforts depending on the maturity stage of the individual sites. Furthermore, the model can be used to support the decision-making process regarding when organizations should embark on more complex environmental efforts......This paper presents an Environmental Excellence Self-Assessment (EEA) model based on the structure of the European Foundation of Quality Management Business Excellence Framework. Four theoretical scenarios for deploying the model are presented as well as managerial implications, suggesting...

  16. The effects of model and data complexity on predictions from species distributions models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Callejas, David; Bastos, Miguel

    2016-01-01

    How complex does a model need to be to provide useful predictions is a matter of continuous debate across environmental sciences. In the species distributions modelling literature, studies have demonstrated that more complex models tend to provide better fits. However, studies have also shown...... that predictive performance does not always increase with complexity. Testing of species distributions models is challenging because independent data for testing are often lacking, but a more general problem is that model complexity has never been formally described in such studies. Here, we systematically...

  17. Environmental model for a capital city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Eugenia Toca Torres

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available From a review of the various options for modeling a sustainable development in its environmental dimension, this research proposes a model of environmental impact for Bogota, using the Vensim PLE software to model the pollution, the pollution load and soil contamination. The model includes a limited number of endogenous variables, as well as a greater number of exogenous variables. This modeling allows us to anticipate the environmental situation in the capital, in order to support public policies for addressing issues such as economic sanctions and moral regulations on emissions, discharges and waste, environmental measures and environmentally friendly practices

  18. Environmental radioactivity at the heat power complex enterprises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krylov, D.A.; Putintseva, V.E.

    1997-01-01

    Environmental radioactivity at the heat power complex enterprises (coal mines, oil and gas deposits, coal thermal power plants and heat-electric generation plant) is considered. IT is shown that elevated level of radiation effect on the personnel lungs (2-3 times higher than that of safety standard) is observed at 80 coal mines. High levels of gamma radiation from natural radionuclides (300 μR/h and above) are marked at the separate objects of oil and gas mining industry. It is revealed that the contamination of ash wastes resulted from certain coals combustion reaches 520 Bq/kg at separate thermal power plants

  19. Integrative Models in Environmental Planning and Policy Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyler, David Clinton

    1984-01-01

    Discusses conceptual models of thought that have recently emerged to confront the conventional approaches to analysis and solution to complex environmental problems. In addition to a critical attack on the tradition of specialization and reductionism, several models are summarized that originated from ecology, cybernetics, and system theory. (BC)

  20. Osteosarcoma models : understanding complex disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mohseny, Alexander Behzad

    2012-01-01

    A mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) based osteosarcoma model was established. The model provided evidence for a MSC origin of osteosarcoma. Normal MSCs transformed spontaneously to osteosarcoma-like cells which was always accompanied by genomic instability and loss of the Cdkn2a locus. Accordingly loss of

  1. Complexity analysis of the turbulent environmental fluid flow time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, D. T.; Nikolić-Đorić, E.; Drešković, N.; Mimić, G.

    2014-02-01

    We have used the Kolmogorov complexities, sample and permutation entropies to quantify the randomness degree in river flow time series of two mountain rivers in Bosnia and Herzegovina, representing the turbulent environmental fluid, for the period 1926-1990. In particular, we have examined the monthly river flow time series from two rivers (the Miljacka and the Bosnia) in the mountain part of their flow and then calculated the Kolmogorov complexity (KL) based on the Lempel-Ziv Algorithm (LZA) (lower-KLL and upper-KLU), sample entropy (SE) and permutation entropy (PE) values for each time series. The results indicate that the KLL, KLU, SE and PE values in two rivers are close to each other regardless of the amplitude differences in their monthly flow rates. We have illustrated the changes in mountain river flow complexity by experiments using (i) the data set for the Bosnia River and (ii) anticipated human activities and projected climate changes. We have explored the sensitivity of considered measures in dependence on the length of time series. In addition, we have divided the period 1926-1990 into three subintervals: (a) 1926-1945, (b) 1946-1965, (c) 1966-1990, and calculated the KLL, KLU, SE, PE values for the various time series in these subintervals. It is found that during the period 1946-1965, there is a decrease in their complexities, and corresponding changes in the SE and PE, in comparison to the period 1926-1990. This complexity loss may be primarily attributed to (i) human interventions, after the Second World War, on these two rivers because of their use for water consumption and (ii) climate change in recent times.

  2. Thermodynamic modeling of complex systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Xiaodong

    after an oil spill. Engineering thermodynamics could be applied in the state-of-the-art sonar products through advanced artificial technology, if the speed of sound, solubility and density of oil-seawater systems could be satisfactorily modelled. The addition of methanol or glycols into unprocessed well...... is successfully applied to model the phase behaviour of water, chemical and hydrocarbon (oil) containing systems with newly developed pure component parameters for water and chemicals and characterization procedures for petroleum fluids. The performance of the PCSAFT EOS on liquid-liquid equilibria of water...... with hydrocarbons has been under debate for some vii years. An interactive step-wise procedure is proposed to fit the model parameters for small associating fluids by taking the liquid-liquid equilibrium data into account. It is still far away from a simple task to apply PC-SAFT in routine PVT simulations and phase...

  3. A data model for environmental scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapeljushnik, O.; Beran, B.; Valentine, D.; van Ingen, C.; Zaslavsky, I.; Whitenack, T.

    2008-12-01

    Environmental science encompasses a wide range of disciplines from water chemistry to microbiology, ecology and atmospheric sciences. Studies often require working across disciplines which differ in their ways of describing and storing data such that it is not possible to devise a monolithic one-size-fits-all data solution. Based on our experiences with Consortium of the Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science Inc. (CUAHSI) Observations Data Model, Berkeley Water Center FLUXNET carbon-climate work and by examining standards like EPA's Water Quality Exchange (WQX), we have developed a flexible data model that allows extensions without need to altering the schema such that scientists can define custom metadata elements to describe their data including observations, analysis methods as well as sensors and geographical features. The data model supports various types of observations including fixed point and moving sensors, bottled samples, rasters from remote sensors and models, and categorical descriptions (e.g. taxonomy) by employing user-defined-types when necessary. It leverages ADO .NET Entity Framework to provide the semantic data models for differing disciplines, while maintaining a common schema below the entity layer. This abstraction layer simplifies data retrieval and manipulation by hiding the logic and complexity of the relational schema from users thus allows programmers and scientists to deal directly with objects such as observations, sensors, watersheds, river reaches, channel cross-sections, laboratory analysis methods and samples as opposed to table joins, columns and rows.

  4. Role models for complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichardt, J.; White, D. R.

    2007-11-01

    We present a framework for automatically decomposing (“block-modeling”) the functional classes of agents within a complex network. These classes are represented by the nodes of an image graph (“block model”) depicting the main patterns of connectivity and thus functional roles in the network. Using a first principles approach, we derive a measure for the fit of a network to any given image graph allowing objective hypothesis testing. From the properties of an optimal fit, we derive how to find the best fitting image graph directly from the network and present a criterion to avoid overfitting. The method can handle both two-mode and one-mode data, directed and undirected as well as weighted networks and allows for different types of links to be dealt with simultaneously. It is non-parametric and computationally efficient. The concepts of structural equivalence and modularity are found as special cases of our approach. We apply our method to the world trade network and analyze the roles individual countries play in the global economy.

  5. Modelling the structure of complex networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herlau, Tue

    networks has been independently studied as mathematical objects in their own right. As such, there has been both an increased demand for statistical methods for complex networks as well as a quickly growing mathematical literature on the subject. In this dissertation we explore aspects of modelling complex....... The next chapters will treat some of the various symmetries, representer theorems and probabilistic structures often deployed in the modelling complex networks, the construction of sampling methods and various network models. The introductory chapters will serve to provide context for the included written...

  6. Environmental influences on neural systems of relational complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Layne eKalbfleisch

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Constructivist learning theory contends that we construct knowledge by experience and that environmental context influences learning. To explore this principle, we examined the cognitive process relational complexity (RC, defined as the number of visual dimensions considered during problem solving on a matrix reasoning task and a well-documented measure of mature reasoning capacity. We sought to determine how the visual environment influences RC by examining the influence of color and visual contrast on RC in a neuroimaging task. To specify the contributions of sensory demand and relational integration to reasoning, our participants performed a non-verbal matrix task comprised of color, no-color line, or black-white visual contrast conditions parametrically varied by complexity (relations 0, 1, 2. The use of matrix reasoning is ecologically valid for its psychometric relevance and for its potential to link the processing of psychophysically specific visual properties with various levels of relational complexity during reasoning. The role of these elements is important because matrix tests assess intellectual aptitude based on these seemingly context-less exercises. This experiment is a first step toward examining the psychophysical underpinnings of performance on these types of problems. The importance of this is increased in light of recent evidence that intelligence can be linked to visual discrimination. We submit three main findings. First, color and black-white visual contrast add demand at a basic sensory level, but contributions from color and from black-white visual contrast are dissociable in cortex such that color engages a reasoning heuristic and black-white visual contrast engages a sensory heuristic. Second, color supports contextual sense-making by boosting salience resulting in faster problem solving. Lastly, when visual complexity reaches 2-relations, color and visual contrast relinquish salience to other dimensions of problem

  7. Information, complexity and efficiency: The automobile model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allenby, B. [Lucent Technologies (United States)]|[Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-08-08

    The new, rapidly evolving field of industrial ecology - the objective, multidisciplinary study of industrial and economic systems and their linkages with fundamental natural systems - provides strong ground for believing that a more environmentally and economically efficient economy will be more information intensive and complex. Information and intellectual capital will be substituted for the more traditional inputs of materials and energy in producing a desirable, yet sustainable, quality of life. While at this point this remains a strong hypothesis, the evolution of the automobile industry can be used to illustrate how such substitution may, in fact, already be occurring in an environmentally and economically critical sector.

  8. Computational Modeling of Complex Protein Activity Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schivo, Stefano; Leijten, Jeroen; Karperien, Marcel; Post, Janine N.; Prignet, Claude

    2017-01-01

    Because of the numerous entities interacting, the complexity of the networks that regulate cell fate makes it impossible to analyze and understand them using the human brain alone. Computational modeling is a powerful method to unravel complex systems. We recently described the development of a

  9. Models of complex attitude systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Bjarne Taulo

    search algorithms and structural equation models. The results suggest that evaluative judgments of the importance of production system attributes are generated in a schematic manner, driven by personal value orientations. The effect of personal value orientations was strong and largely unmediated...... that evaluative affect propagates through the system in such a way that the system becomes evaluatively consistent and operates as a schema for the generation of evaluative judgments. In the empirical part of the paper, the causal structure of an attitude system from which people derive their evaluations of pork......Existing research on public attitudes towards agricultural production systems is largely descriptive, abstracting from the processes through which members of the general public generate their evaluations of such systems. The present paper adopts a systems perspective on such evaluations...

  10. Energy and externality environmental regional model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldi, L.; Bianchi, A.; Peri, M.

    2000-01-01

    The use of environmental externalities in both territorial management and the direction of energy and environment, faces the difficulties arising from their calculation. The so-called MACBET regional model, which has been constructed for Lombardy, is a first brand new attempt to overcome them. MACBET is a calculation model to assess environmental and employment externalities connected to energy use [it

  11. Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling: The UncertWeb framework.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bastin, L.; Cornford, D.; Jones, R.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Pebesma, E.; Stasch, C.; Nativi, S.; Mazzetti, P.

    2013-01-01

    Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing

  12. Enabling complex genetic circuits to respond to extrinsic environmental signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoynes-O'Connor, Allison; Shopera, Tatenda; Hinman, Kristina; Creamer, John Philip; Moon, Tae Seok

    2017-07-01

    Genetic circuits have the potential to improve a broad range of metabolic engineering processes and address a variety of medical and environmental challenges. However, in order to engineer genetic circuits that can meet the needs of these real-world applications, genetic sensors that respond to relevant extrinsic and intrinsic signals must be implemented in complex genetic circuits. In this work, we construct the first AND and NAND gates that respond to temperature and pH, two signals that have relevance in a variety of real-world applications. A previously identified pH-responsive promoter and a temperature-responsive promoter were extracted from the E. coli genome, characterized, and modified to suit the needs of the genetic circuits. These promoters were combined with components of the type III secretion system in Salmonella typhimurium and used to construct a set of AND gates with up to 23-fold change. Next, an antisense RNA was integrated into the circuit architecture to invert the logic of the AND gate and generate a set of NAND gates with up to 1168-fold change. These circuits provide the first demonstration of complex pH- and temperature-responsive genetic circuits, and lay the groundwork for the use of similar circuits in real-world applications. Biotechnol. Bioeng. 2017;114: 1626-1631. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Environmental evaluation of the air in a quarry in complex land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bedoya V, Julian

    1999-01-01

    Wind motion in a mountain terrain is hard to model, especially if it is located in the dividing line of the mountain where different wind regimes meet. In addition to difficulties in assessing wind fields, air pollution modeling requires special handling of receptors to estimate pollutant concentration (basically total suspended particulate for the case of a quarry). Modeling procedures are explained based on an exceptionally complex application for a quarry located in a mountain gorge in an eastern Colombian mountain. Emission factors of the US Environmental Protection Agency were applied to this example and the information was processed to use the ISCLT (Industrial Source Complex Long Term) dispersion model. Required meteorological information was obtained by interpolation of wind roses recorded in the two sides of the mountain (Santa fe de Bogota and Villavicencio). Two scenarios were modeled generating satisfying results since the highest air quality impacts are inside property line where occupational hygiene is applied

  14. Hierarchy and Interactions in Environmental Interfaces Regarded as Biophysical Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailovic, Dragutin T.; Balaz, Igor

    The field of environmental sciences is abundant with various interfaces and is the right place for the application of new fundamental approaches leading towards a better understanding of environmental phenomena. For example, following the definition of environmental interface by Mihailovic and Balaž [23], such interface can be placed between: human or animal bodies and surrounding air, aquatic species and water and air around them, and natural or artificially built surfaces (vegetation, ice, snow, barren soil, water, urban communities) and the atmosphere. Complex environmental interface systems are open and hierarchically organised, interactions between their constituent parts are nonlinear, and the interaction with the surrounding environment is noisy. These systems are therefore very sensitive to initial conditions, deterministic external perturbations and random fluctuations always present in nature. The study of noisy non-equilibrium processes is fundamental for modelling the dynamics of environmental interface systems and for understanding the mechanisms of spatio-temporal pattern formation in contemporary environmental sciences, particularly in environmental fluid mechanics. In modelling complex biophysical systems one of the main tasks is to successfully create an operative interface with the external environment. It should provide a robust and prompt translation of the vast diversity of external physical and/or chemical changes into a set of signals, which are "understandable" for an organism. Although the establishment of organisation in any system is of crucial importance for its functioning, it should not be forgotten that in biophysical systems we deal with real-life problems where a number of other conditions should be reached in order to put the system to work. One of them is the proper supply of the system by the energy. Therefore, we will investigate an aspect of dynamics of energy flow based on the energy balance equation. The energy as well as

  15. Modeling Musical Complexity: Commentary on Eerola (2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Albrecht

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available In his paper, "Expectancy violation and information-theoretic models of melodic complexity," Eerola compares a number of models that correlate musical features of monophonic melodies with participant ratings of perceived melodic complexity. He finds that fairly strong results can be achieved using several different approaches to modeling perceived melodic complexity. The data used in this study are gathered from several previously published studies that use widely different types of melodies, including isochronous folk melodies, isochronous 12-tone rows, and rhythmically complex African folk melodies. This commentary first briefly reviews the article's method and main findings, then suggests a rethinking of the theoretical framework of the study. Finally, some of the methodological issues of the study are discussed.

  16. Assessing the Role of Environmental Factors on Baltic Cod Recruitment, a Complex Adaptive System Emergent Property

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionysis Krekoukiotis

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available For decades, fish recruitment has been a subject of intensive research with stock–recruitment models commonly used for recruitment prediction often only explaining a small fraction of the inter-annual recruitment variation. The use of environmental information to improve our ability to predict recruitment, could contribute considerably to fisheries management. However, the problem remains difficult because the mechanisms behind such complex relationships are often poorly understood; this in turn, makes it difficult to determine the forecast estimation robustness, leading to the failure of some relationships when new data become available. The utility of machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks (ANNs for solving complex problems has been demonstrated in aquatic studies and has led many researchers to advocate ANNs as an attractive, non-linear alternative to traditional statistical methods. The goal of this study is to design a Baltic cod recruitment model (FishANN that can account for complex ecosystem interactions. To this end, we (1 build a quantitative model representation of the conceptual understanding of the complex ecosystem interactions driving Baltic cod recruitment dynamics, and (2 apply the model to strengthen the current capability to project future changes in Baltic cod recruitment. FishANN is demonstrated to bring multiple stressors together into one model framework and estimate the relative importance of these stressors while interpreting the complex nonlinear interactions between them. Additional requirements to further improve the current study in the future are also proposed.

  17. Modeling complex work systems - method meets reality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veer, Gerrit C.; Hoeve, Machteld; Lenting, Bert

    1996-01-01

    Modeling an existing task situation is often a first phase in the (re)design of information systems. For complex systems design, this model should consider both the people and the organization involved, the work, and situational aspects. Groupware Task Analysis (GTA) as part of a method for the

  18. Fatigue modeling of materials with complex microstructures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon

    2011-01-01

    with the phenomenological model of fatigue damage growth. As a result, the fatigue lifetime of materials with complex structures can be determined as a function of the parameters of their structures. As an example, the fatigue lifetimes of wood modeled as a cellular material with multilayered, fiber reinforced walls were...

  19. Mapping the environmental and biogeographic complexity of the Amazon basin using remote sensing methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streher, A. S.; Cordeiro, C. L. O.; Silva, T. S. F.

    2017-12-01

    Mapping environmental envelopes onto geographical space has been classically important for understanding biogeographical patterns. Knowing the biotic and abiotic limits defining these envelopes, we can better understand the requirements limiting species distributions. Most present efforts in this regard have focused on single-species distribution models, but the current breadth and accessibility of quantitative, spatially explicit environmental information can also be explored from an environment-first perspective. We thus used remote sensing to determine the occurrence of environmental discontinuities in the Amazon region and evaluated if such discontinuities may act as barriers to determine species distribution and range limits, forming clear environmental envelopes. We combined data on topography (SRTM), precipitation (CHIRPS), vegetation descriptors (PALSAR-1 backscattering, biomass, NDVI) and temperature (MODIS), using object-based image analysis and unsupervised learning to map environmental envelopes. We identified 14 environmental envelopes for the Amazon sensu latissimo region, mainly delimited by changes in vegetation, topography and precipitation. The resulting envelopes were compared to the distribution of 120 species of Trogonidae, Galbulidae, Bucconidae, Cebidae, Hylidae and Lecythidaceae, amounting to 22,649 occurrence records within the Amazonregion. We determined species prevalence in each envelope by calculating the ratio between species relative frequency per envelope and envelope relative frequency (area) in the complete map. Values closer to 1 indicate a high degree of prevalence. We found strong envelope associations (prevalence > 0.5) for 20 species (17% of analyzed taxa). Although several biogeographical and ecological factors will influence the distribution of a species, our results show that not only geographical barriers, but also modern environmental discontinuities may limit the distribution of some species., and may have also done so

  20. Updating the debate on model complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, Craig T.; Hunt, Randall J.

    2012-01-01

    As scientists who are trying to understand a complex natural world that cannot be fully characterized in the field, how can we best inform the society in which we live? This founding context was addressed in a special session, “Complexity in Modeling: How Much is Too Much?” convened at the 2011 Geological Society of America Annual Meeting. The session had a variety of thought-provoking presentations—ranging from philosophy to cost-benefit analyses—and provided some areas of broad agreement that were not evident in discussions of the topic in 1998 (Hunt and Zheng, 1999). The session began with a short introduction during which model complexity was framed borrowing from an economic concept, the Law of Diminishing Returns, and an example of enjoyment derived by eating ice cream. Initially, there is increasing satisfaction gained from eating more ice cream, to a point where the gain in satisfaction starts to decrease, ending at a point when the eater sees no value in eating more ice cream. A traditional view of model complexity is similar—understanding gained from modeling can actually decrease if models become unnecessarily complex. However, oversimplified models—those that omit important aspects of the problem needed to make a good prediction—can also limit and confound our understanding. Thus, the goal of all modeling is to find the “sweet spot” of model sophistication—regardless of whether complexity was added sequentially to an overly simple model or collapsed from an initial highly parameterized framework that uses mathematics and statistics to attain an optimum (e.g., Hunt et al., 2007). Thus, holistic parsimony is attained, incorporating “as simple as possible,” as well as the equally important corollary “but no simpler.”

  1. Complexity, Modeling, and Natural Resource Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Cilliers

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper contends that natural resource management (NRM issues are, by their very nature, complex and that both scientists and managers in this broad field will benefit from a theoretical understanding of complex systems. It starts off by presenting the core features of a view of complexity that not only deals with the limits to our understanding, but also points toward a responsible and motivating position. Everything we do involves explicit or implicit modeling, and as we can never have comprehensive access to any complex system, we need to be aware both of what we leave out as we model and of the implications of the choice of our modeling framework. One vantage point is never sufficient, as complexity necessarily implies that multiple (independent conceptualizations are needed to engage the system adequately. We use two South African cases as examples of complex systems - restricting the case narratives mainly to the biophysical domain associated with NRM issues - that make the point that even the behavior of the biophysical subsystems themselves are already complex. From the insights into complex systems discussed in the first part of the paper and the lessons emerging from the way these cases have been dealt with in reality, we extract five interrelated generic principles for practicing science and management in complex NRM environments. These principles are then further elucidated using four further South African case studies - organized as two contrasting pairs - and now focusing on the more difficult organizational and social side, comparing the human organizational endeavors in managing such systems.

  2. Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Subrata; Mengersen, Kerrie; Fidge, Colin; Ma, Lin; Lassen, David

    2015-01-01

    We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control.

  3. Multifaceted Modelling of Complex Business Enterprises

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    We formalise and present a new generic multifaceted complex system approach for modelling complex business enterprises. Our method has a strong focus on integrating the various data types available in an enterprise which represent the diverse perspectives of various stakeholders. We explain the challenges faced and define a novel approach to converting diverse data types into usable Bayesian probability forms. The data types that can be integrated include historic data, survey data, and management planning data, expert knowledge and incomplete data. The structural complexities of the complex system modelling process, based on various decision contexts, are also explained along with a solution. This new application of complex system models as a management tool for decision making is demonstrated using a railway transport case study. The case study demonstrates how the new approach can be utilised to develop a customised decision support model for a specific enterprise. Various decision scenarios are also provided to illustrate the versatility of the decision model at different phases of enterprise operations such as planning and control. PMID:26247591

  4. Modeling OPC complexity for design for manufacturability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Puneet; Kahng, Andrew B.; Muddu, Swamy; Nakagawa, Sam; Park, Chul-Hong

    2005-11-01

    Increasing design complexity in sub-90nm designs results in increased mask complexity and cost. Resolution enhancement techniques (RET) such as assist feature addition, phase shifting (attenuated PSM) and aggressive optical proximity correction (OPC) help in preserving feature fidelity in silicon but increase mask complexity and cost. Data volume increase with rise in mask complexity is becoming prohibitive for manufacturing. Mask cost is determined by mask write time and mask inspection time, which are directly related to the complexity of features printed on the mask. Aggressive RET increase complexity by adding assist features and by modifying existing features. Passing design intent to OPC has been identified as a solution for reducing mask complexity and cost in several recent works. The goal of design-aware OPC is to relax OPC tolerances of layout features to minimize mask cost, without sacrificing parametric yield. To convey optimal OPC tolerances for manufacturing, design optimization should drive OPC tolerance optimization using models of mask cost for devices and wires. Design optimization should be aware of impact of OPC correction levels on mask cost and performance of the design. This work introduces mask cost characterization (MCC) that quantifies OPC complexity, measured in terms of fracture count of the mask, for different OPC tolerances. MCC with different OPC tolerances is a critical step in linking design and manufacturing. In this paper, we present a MCC methodology that provides models of fracture count of standard cells and wire patterns for use in design optimization. MCC cannot be performed by designers as they do not have access to foundry OPC recipes and RET tools. To build a fracture count model, we perform OPC and fracturing on a limited set of standard cells and wire configurations with all tolerance combinations. Separately, we identify the characteristics of the layout that impact fracture count. Based on the fracture count (FC) data

  5. Integrated Environmental Modelling: Human decisions, human challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glynn, Pierre D.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated Environmental Modelling (IEM) is an invaluable tool for understanding the complex, dynamic ecosystems that house our natural resources and control our environments. Human behaviour affects the ways in which the science of IEM is assembled and used for meaningful societal applications. In particular, human biases and heuristics reflect adaptation and experiential learning to issues with frequent, sharply distinguished, feedbacks. Unfortunately, human behaviour is not adapted to the more diffusely experienced problems that IEM typically seeks to address. Twelve biases are identified that affect IEM (and science in general). These biases are supported by personal observations and by the findings of behavioural scientists. A process for critical analysis is proposed that addresses some human challenges of IEM and solicits explicit description of (1) represented processes and information, (2) unrepresented processes and information, and (3) accounting for, and cognizance of, potential human biases. Several other suggestions are also made that generally complement maintaining attitudes of watchful humility, open-mindedness, honesty and transparent accountability. These suggestions include (1) creating a new area of study in the behavioural biogeosciences, (2) using structured processes for engaging the modelling and stakeholder communities in IEM, and (3) using ‘red teams’ to increase resilience of IEM constructs and use.

  6. Multiscale modeling of complex materials phenomenological, theoretical and computational aspects

    CERN Document Server

    Trovalusci, Patrizia

    2014-01-01

    The papers in this volume deal with materials science, theoretical mechanics and experimental and computational techniques at multiple scales, providing a sound base and a framework for many applications which are hitherto treated in a phenomenological sense. The basic principles are formulated of multiscale modeling strategies towards modern complex multiphase materials subjected to various types of mechanical, thermal loadings and environmental effects. The focus is on problems where mechanics is highly coupled with other concurrent physical phenomena. Attention is also focused on the historical origins of multiscale modeling and foundations of continuum mechanics currently adopted to model non-classical continua with substructure, for which internal length scales play a crucial role.

  7. Sutherland models for complex reflection groups

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crampe, N.; Young, C.A.S.

    2008-01-01

    There are known to be integrable Sutherland models associated to every real root system, or, which is almost equivalent, to every real reflection group. Real reflection groups are special cases of complex reflection groups. In this paper we associate certain integrable Sutherland models to the classical family of complex reflection groups. Internal degrees of freedom are introduced, defining dynamical spin chains, and the freezing limit taken to obtain static chains of Haldane-Shastry type. By considering the relation of these models to the usual BC N case, we are led to systems with both real and complex reflection groups as symmetries. We demonstrate their integrability by means of new Dunkl operators, associated to wreath products of dihedral groups

  8. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  9. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process, National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... Models help EPA explain environmental phenomena in settings where direct observations are limited or unavailable, and anticipate the effects of agency policies on the environment, human health and the economy...

  10. Hydrological models for environmental management

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bolgov, Mikhail V

    2002-01-01

    .... Stochastic modelling and forecasting cannot at present adequately represent the characteristics of hydrological regimes, nor analyze the influence of water on processes that arise in biological...

  11. Comparison of Aspergillus species-complexes detected in different environmental settings

    OpenAIRE

    Sabino, Raquel; Viegas, Carla; Veríssimo, Carla; Clemons, K. V.; Stevens, D. A.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Samples from different environmental sources were screened for the presence of Aspergillus, and the distribution of the different species-complexes was determined in order to understand differences among that distribution in the several environmental sources and which of these species complexes are present in specific environmental settings. Methods: Four distinct environments (beaches, poultries, swineries and hospital) were studied and analyzed for which Aspergillus complexes were ...

  12. Complex Systems and Self-organization Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Bertelle, Cyrille; Kadri-Dahmani, Hakima

    2009-01-01

    The concern of this book is the use of emergent computing and self-organization modelling within various applications of complex systems. The authors focus their attention both on the innovative concepts and implementations in order to model self-organizations, but also on the relevant applicative domains in which they can be used efficiently. This book is the outcome of a workshop meeting within ESM 2006 (Eurosis), held in Toulouse, France in October 2006.

  13. Geometric Modelling with a-Complexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerritsen, B.H.M.; Werff, K. van der; Veltkamp, R.C.

    2001-01-01

    The shape of real objects can be so complicated, that only a sampling data point set can accurately represent them. Analytic descriptions are too complicated or impossible. Natural objects, for example, can be vague and rough with many holes. For this kind of modelling, a-complexes offer advantages

  14. The Kuramoto model in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Francisco A.; Peron, Thomas K. DM.; Ji, Peng; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Synchronization of an ensemble of oscillators is an emergent phenomenon present in several complex systems, ranging from social and physical to biological and technological systems. The most successful approach to describe how coherent behavior emerges in these complex systems is given by the paradigmatic Kuramoto model. This model has been traditionally studied in complete graphs. However, besides being intrinsically dynamical, complex systems present very heterogeneous structure, which can be represented as complex networks. This report is dedicated to review main contributions in the field of synchronization in networks of Kuramoto oscillators. In particular, we provide an overview of the impact of network patterns on the local and global dynamics of coupled phase oscillators. We cover many relevant topics, which encompass a description of the most used analytical approaches and the analysis of several numerical results. Furthermore, we discuss recent developments on variations of the Kuramoto model in networks, including the presence of noise and inertia. The rich potential for applications is discussed for special fields in engineering, neuroscience, physics and Earth science. Finally, we conclude by discussing problems that remain open after the last decade of intensive research on the Kuramoto model and point out some promising directions for future research.

  15. A cognitive model for software architecture complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwers, E.; Lilienthal, C.; Visser, J.; Van Deursen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Evaluating the complexity of the architecture of a softwaresystem is a difficult task. Many aspects have to be considered to come to a balanced assessment. Several architecture evaluation methods have been proposed, but very few define a quality model to be used during the evaluation process. In

  16. The integrated environmental control model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rubin, E.S.; Berkenpas, M.B.; Kalagnanam, J.R. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    The capability to estimate the performance and cost of emission control systems is critical to a variety of planning and analysis requirements faced by utilities, regulators, researchers and analysts in the public and private sectors. The computer model described in this paper has been developed for DOe to provide an up-to-date capability for analyzing a variety of pre-combustion, combustion, and post-combustion options in an integrated framework. A unique capability allows performance and costs to be modeled probabilistically, which allows explicit characterization of uncertainties and risks.

  17. Environmental Restoration Strategic Plan. Remediating the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-08-01

    With the end of the cold war, the US has a reduced need for nuclear weapons production. In response, the Department of Energy has redirected resources from weapons production to weapons dismantlement and environmental remediation. To this end, in November 1989, the US Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (renamed the Office of Environmental Management in 1994). It was created to bring under a central authority the management of radioactive and hazardous wastes at DOE sites and inactive or shut down facilities. The Environmental Restoration Program, a major component of DOE's Environmental Management Program, is responsible for the remediation and management of contaminated environmental media (e.g., soil, groundwater, sediments) and the decommissioning of facilities and structures at 130 sites in over 30 states and territories

  18. Comparing flood loss models of different complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Vogel, Kristin; Riggelsen, Carsten; Scherbaum, Frank; Merz, Bruno

    2013-04-01

    Any deliberation on flood risk requires the consideration of potential flood losses. In particular, reliable flood loss models are needed to evaluate cost-effectiveness of mitigation measures, to assess vulnerability, for comparative risk analysis and financial appraisal during and after floods. In recent years, considerable improvements have been made both concerning the data basis and the methodological approaches used for the development of flood loss models. Despite of that, flood loss models remain an important source of uncertainty. Likewise the temporal and spatial transferability of flood loss models is still limited. This contribution investigates the predictive capability of different flood loss models in a split sample cross regional validation approach. For this purpose, flood loss models of different complexity, i.e. based on different numbers of explaining variables, are learned from a set of damage records that was obtained from a survey after the Elbe flood in 2002. The validation of model predictions is carried out for different flood events in the Elbe and Danube river basins in 2002, 2005 and 2006 for which damage records are available from surveys after the flood events. The models investigated are a stage-damage model, the rule based model FLEMOps+r as well as novel model approaches which are derived using data mining techniques of regression trees and Bayesian networks. The Bayesian network approach to flood loss modelling provides attractive additional information concerning the probability distribution of both model predictions and explaining variables.

  19. Complex scaling in the cluster model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruppa, A.T.; Lovas, R.G.; Gyarmati, B.

    1987-01-01

    To find the positions and widths of resonances, a complex scaling of the intercluster relative coordinate is introduced into the resonating-group model. In the generator-coordinate technique used to solve the resonating-group equation the complex scaling requires minor changes in the formulae and code. The finding of the resonances does not need any preliminary guess or explicit reference to any asymptotic prescription. The procedure is applied to the resonances in the relative motion of two ground-state α clusters in 8 Be, but is appropriate for any systems consisting of two clusters. (author) 23 refs.; 5 figs

  20. Modeling of anaerobic digestion of complex substrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keshtkar, A. R.; Abolhamd, G.; Meyssami, B.; Ghaforian, H.

    2003-01-01

    A structured mathematical model of anaerobic conversion of complex organic materials in non-ideally cyclic-batch reactors for biogas production has been developed. The model is based on multiple-reaction stoichiometry (enzymatic hydrolysis, acidogenesis, aceto genesis and methano genesis), microbial growth kinetics, conventional material balances in the liquid and gas phases for a cyclic-batch reactor, liquid-gas interactions, liquid-phase equilibrium reactions and a simple mixing model which considers the reactor volume in two separate sections: the flow-through and the retention regions. The dynamic model describes the effects of reactant's distribution resulting from the mixing conditions, time interval of feeding, hydraulic retention time and mixing parameters on the process performance. The model is applied in the simulation of anaerobic digestion of cattle manure under different operating conditions. The model is compared with experimental data and good correlations are obtained

  1. Entrepreneurial environmental management model of marketing in a political-administrative system of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadchenko Olena Vasylivna

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with proposals for entrepreneurial model of environmental management, in particular environmental marketing in modern political and administrative systems. In the context of the complexity of the social structure, forming a dense network of communications, globalization, cultural and economic-ecological space offers new mechanisms for the relationship between the state and civil society in environmental management.

  2. 76 FR 80385 - Draft Environmental Impact Statement and Proposed Maricopa Sun Solar Complex Multi-Species...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-23

    .... Operation related activities could include solar panel maintenance, on-site parking, operation of solar...-FXES11120800000F2-123] Draft Environmental Impact Statement and Proposed Maricopa Sun Solar Complex Multi-Species... National Environmental Policy Act for the proposed Maricopa Sun Solar Complex Habitat Conservation Plan...

  3. Toxicological risk assessment of complex mixtures through the Wtox model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Gerson Matias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical models are important tools for environmental management and risk assessment. Predictions about the toxicity of chemical mixtures must be enhanced due to the complexity of eects that can be caused to the living species. In this work, the environmental risk was accessed addressing the need to study the relationship between the organism and xenobiotics. Therefore, ve toxicological endpoints were applied through the WTox Model, and with this methodology we obtained the risk classication of potentially toxic substances. Acute and chronic toxicity, citotoxicity and genotoxicity were observed in the organisms Daphnia magna, Vibrio scheri and Oreochromis niloticus. A case study was conducted with solid wastes from textile, metal-mechanic and pulp and paper industries. The results have shown that several industrial wastes induced mortality, reproductive eects, micronucleus formation and increases in the rate of lipid peroxidation and DNA methylation of the organisms tested. These results, analyzed together through the WTox Model, allowed the classication of the environmental risk of industrial wastes. The evaluation showed that the toxicological environmental risk of the samples analyzed can be classied as signicant or critical.

  4. A resource oriented webs service for environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferencik, Ioan

    2013-04-01

    Environmental modeling is a largely adopted practice in the study of natural phenomena. Environmental models can be difficult to build and use and thus sharing them within the community is an important aspect. The most common approach to share a model is to expose it as a web service. In practice the interaction with this web service is cumbersome due to lack of standardized contract and the complexity of the model being exposed. In this work we investigate the use of a resource oriented approach in exposing environmental models as web services. We view a model as a layered resource build atop the object concept from Object Oriented Programming, augmented with persistence capabilities provided by an embedded object database to keep track of its state and implementing the four basic principles of resource oriented architectures: addressability, statelessness, representation and uniform interface. For implementation we use exclusively open source software: Django framework, dyBase object oriented database and Python programming language. We developed a generic framework of resources structured into a hierarchy of types and consequently extended this typology with recurses specific to the domain of environmental modeling. To test our web service we used cURL, a robust command-line based web client.

  5. A Practical Philosophy of Complex Climate Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Gavin A.; Sherwood, Steven

    2014-01-01

    We give an overview of the practice of developing and using complex climate models, as seen from experiences in a major climate modelling center and through participation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).We discuss the construction and calibration of models; their evaluation, especially through use of out-of-sample tests; and their exploitation in multi-model ensembles to identify biases and make predictions. We stress that adequacy or utility of climate models is best assessed via their skill against more naive predictions. The framework we use for making inferences about reality using simulations is naturally Bayesian (in an informal sense), and has many points of contact with more familiar examples of scientific epistemology. While the use of complex simulations in science is a development that changes much in how science is done in practice, we argue that the concepts being applied fit very much into traditional practices of the scientific method, albeit those more often associated with laboratory work.

  6. Environmental management on the basis of Complex Regional Indicators Concept: case of the Murmansk region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, A.; Gutman, S.; Zaychenko, I.; Rytova, E.; Nijinskaya, P.

    2015-09-01

    The article presents an approach to sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region of the Russian Federation based on the complex regional indicators as a transformation of a balance scorecard method. The peculiarities of Murmansk region connected with sustainable environmental development are described. The complex regional indicators approach allows to elaborate the general concept of complex regional development taking into consideration economic and non-economic factors with the focus on environmental aspects, accumulated environmental damage in particular. General strategic chart of sustainable environmental development of the Murmansk region worked out on the basis of complex regional indicators concept is composed. The key target indicators of sustainable ecological development of the Murmansk region are presented for the following strategic chart components: regional finance; society and market; industry and entrepreneurship; training, development and innovations. These charts are to be integrated with international environmental monitoring systems.

  7. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  8. Elements of complexity in subsurface modeling, exemplified with three case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Vicky L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Truex, Michael J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rockhold, Mark [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Bacon, Diana H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Freshley, Mark D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Wellman, Dawn M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-04-03

    There are complexity elements to consider when applying subsurface flow and transport models to support environmental analyses. Modelers balance the benefits and costs of modeling along the spectrum of complexity, taking into account the attributes of more simple models (e.g., lower cost, faster execution, easier to explain, less mechanistic) and the attributes of more complex models (higher cost, slower execution, harder to explain, more mechanistic and technically defensible). In this paper, modeling complexity is examined with respect to considering this balance. The discussion of modeling complexity is organized into three primary elements: 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. Three examples are used to examine these complexity elements. Two of the examples use simulations generated from a complex model to develop simpler models for efficient use in model applications. The first example is designed to support performance evaluation of soil vapor extraction remediation in terms of groundwater protection. The second example investigates the importance of simulating different categories of geochemical reactions for carbon sequestration and selecting appropriate simplifications for use in evaluating sequestration scenarios. In the third example, the modeling history for a uranium-contaminated site demonstrates that conservative parameter estimates were inadequate surrogates for complex, critical processes and there is discussion on the selection of more appropriate model complexity for this application. All three examples highlight how complexity considerations are essential to create scientifically defensible models that achieve a balance between model simplification and complexity.

  9. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  10. FRAM Modelling Complex Socio-technical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Hollnagel, Erik

    2012-01-01

    There has not yet been a comprehensive method that goes behind 'human error' and beyond the failure concept, and various complicated accidents have accentuated the need for it. The Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) fulfils that need. This book presents a detailed and tested method that can be used to model how complex and dynamic socio-technical systems work, and understand both why things sometimes go wrong but also why they normally succeed.

  11. Complex Constructivism: A Theoretical Model of Complexity and Cognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doolittle, Peter E.

    2014-01-01

    Education has long been driven by its metaphors for teaching and learning. These metaphors have influenced both educational research and educational practice. Complexity and constructivism are two theories that provide functional and robust metaphors. Complexity provides a metaphor for the structure of myriad phenomena, while constructivism…

  12. Coping with Complex Environmental and Societal Flood Risk Management Decisions: An Integrated Multi-criteria Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Love Ekenberg

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available During recent years, a great deal of attention has been focused on the financial risk management of natural disasters. One reason behind is that the economic losses from floods, windstorms, earthquakes and other disasters in both the developing and developed countries are escalating dramatically. It has become apparent that an integrated water resource management approach would be beneficial in order to take both the best interests of society and of the environment into consideration. One improvement consists of models capable of handling multiple criteria (conflicting objectives as well as multiple stakeholders (conflicting interests. A systems approach is applied for coping with complex environmental and societal risk management decisions with respect to flood catastrophe policy formation, wherein the emphasis is on computer-based modeling and simulation techniques combined with methods for evaluating strategies where numerous stakeholders are incorporated in the process. The resulting framework consists of a simulation model, a decision analytical tool, and a set of suggested policy strategies for policy formulation. The framework will aid decision makers with high risk complex environmental decisions subject to significant uncertainties.

  13. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Trine S; Jensen, Jørgen D; Hasler, Berit; Illerup, Jytte B; Andersen, Frits M

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

  14. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  15. From complex to simple: interdisciplinary stochastic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazilu, D A; Zamora, G; Mazilu, I

    2012-01-01

    We present two simple, one-dimensional, stochastic models that lead to a qualitative understanding of very complex systems from biology, nanoscience and social sciences. The first model explains the complicated dynamics of microtubules, stochastic cellular highways. Using the theory of random walks in one dimension, we find analytical expressions for certain physical quantities, such as the time dependence of the length of the microtubules, and diffusion coefficients. The second one is a stochastic adsorption model with applications in surface deposition, epidemics and voter systems. We introduce the ‘empty interval method’ and show sample calculations for the time-dependent particle density. These models can serve as an introduction to the field of non-equilibrium statistical physics, and can also be used as a pedagogical tool to exemplify standard statistical physics concepts, such as random walks or the kinetic approach of the master equation. (paper)

  16. A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE GAS COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolova G. E.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the dynamics of gas production in Russia, the structure of sales in the different market segments, as well as comparative dynamics of selling prices on these segments. Problems of approach to the creation of the gas complex using a simulation model, allowing to estimate efficiency of the project and determine the stability region of the obtained solutions. In the presented model takes into account the unit repayment of the loan, allowing with the first year of simulation to determine the possibility of repayment of the loan. The model object is a group of gas fields, which is determined by the minimum flow rate above which the project is cost-effective. In determining the minimum source flow rate for the norm of discount is taken as a generalized weighted average percentage on debt and equity taking into account risk premiums. He also serves as the lower barrier to internal rate of return below which the project is rejected as ineffective. Analysis of the dynamics and methods of expert evaluation allow to determine the intervals of variation of the simulated parameters, such as the price of gas and the exit gas complex at projected capacity. Calculated using the Monte Carlo method, for each random realization of the model simulated values of parameters allow to obtain a set of optimal for each realization of values minimum yield of wells, and also allows to determine the stability region of the solution.

  17. Community Environmental Education as a Model for Effective Environmental Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Morag

    2008-01-01

    The benefits of community environmental education outlined in environmental education literature are supported by the findings and implications of a research study undertaken in New Zealand. Evidence from a two-case case study suggests that environmental programmes guided by the key principles and practices of community environmental education,…

  18. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  19. International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the International Summit on Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM), held in Washington, DC 7th-9th December 2010. The meeting brought together 57 scientists and managers from leading US and European government and non-governmental organizations, universitie...

  20. Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    arc

    Model comparisons and genetic and environmental parameter estimates of growth and the ... breeding strategies and for accurate breeding value estimation. The objectives ...... Sci. 23, 72-76. Van Wyk, J.B., Fair, M.D. & Cloete, S.W.P., 2003.

  1. An open-source Java-based Toolbox for environmental model evaluation: The MOUSE Software Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    A consequence of environmental model complexity is that the task of understanding how environmental models work and identifying their sensitivities/uncertainties, etc. becomes progressively more difficult. Comprehensive numerical and visual evaluation tools have been developed such as the Monte Carl...

  2. Glass Durability Modeling, Activated Complex Theory (ACT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CAROL, JANTZEN

    2005-01-01

    The most important requirement for high-level waste glass acceptance for disposal in a geological repository is the chemical durability, expressed as a glass dissolution rate. During the early stages of glass dissolution in near static conditions that represent a repository disposal environment, a gel layer resembling a membrane forms on the glass surface through which ions exchange between the glass and the leachant. The hydrated gel layer exhibits acid/base properties which are manifested as the pH dependence of the thickness and nature of the gel layer. The gel layer has been found to age into either clay mineral assemblages or zeolite mineral assemblages. The formation of one phase preferentially over the other has been experimentally related to changes in the pH of the leachant and related to the relative amounts of Al +3 and Fe +3 in a glass. The formation of clay mineral assemblages on the leached glass surface layers ,lower pH and Fe +3 rich glasses, causes the dissolution rate to slow to a long-term steady state rate. The formation of zeolite mineral assemblages ,higher pH and Al +3 rich glasses, on leached glass surface layers causes the dissolution rate to increase and return to the initial high forward rate. The return to the forward dissolution rate is undesirable for long-term performance of glass in a disposal environment. An investigation into the role of glass stoichiometry, in terms of the quasi-crystalline mineral species in a glass, has shown that the chemistry and structure in the parent glass appear to control the activated surface complexes that form in the leached layers, and these mineral complexes ,some Fe +3 rich and some Al +3 rich, play a role in whether or not clays or zeolites are the dominant species formed on the leached glass surface. The chemistry and structure, in terms of Q distributions of the parent glass, are well represented by the atomic ratios of the glass forming components. Thus, glass dissolution modeling using simple

  3. Chaos from simple models to complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Cencini, Massimo; Vulpiani, Angelo

    2010-01-01

    Chaos: from simple models to complex systems aims to guide science and engineering students through chaos and nonlinear dynamics from classical examples to the most recent fields of research. The first part, intended for undergraduate and graduate students, is a gentle and self-contained introduction to the concepts and main tools for the characterization of deterministic chaotic systems, with emphasis to statistical approaches. The second part can be used as a reference by researchers as it focuses on more advanced topics including the characterization of chaos with tools of information theor

  4. A motivational model for environmentally responsible behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabernero, Carmen; Hernández, Bernardo

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents a study examining whether self-efficacy and intrinsic motivation are related to environmentally responsible behavior (ERB). The study analysed past environmental behavior, self-regulatory mechanisms (self-efficacy, satisfaction, goals), and intrinsic and extrinsic motivation in relation to ERBs in a sample of 156 university students. Results show that all the motivational variables studied are linked to ERB. The effects of self-efficacy on ERB are mediated by the intrinsic motivation responses of the participants. A theoretical model was created by means of path analysis, revealing the power of motivational variables to predict ERB. Structural equation modeling was used to test and fit the research model. The role of motivational variables is discussed with a view to creating adequate learning contexts and experiences to generate interest and new sensations in which self-efficacy and affective reactions play an important role.

  5. Compliance with Environmental Regulations through Complex Geo-Event Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Federico Herrera; Laura González; Daniel Calegari; Bruno Rienzi

    2017-01-01

    In a context of e-government, there are usually regulatory compliance requirements that support systems must monitor, control and enforce. These requirements may come from environmental laws and regulations that aim to protect the natural environment and mitigate the effects of pollution on human health and ecosystems. Monitoring compliance with these requirements involves processing a large volume of data from different sources, which is a major challenge. This volume is also increased with ...

  6. Uncertainties in environmental radiological assessment models and their implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because these models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to biases in model formulation and parameter estimation. The best approach for estimating the actual extent of over- or underprediction is model validation, a procedure that requires testing over the range of the intended realm of model application. Other approaches discussed are the use of screening procedures, sensitivity and stochastic analyses, and model comparison. The magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. Estimates are made of the relative magnitude of uncertainty for situations requiring predictions of individual and collective risks for both chronic and acute releases of radionuclides. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible

  7. Complex singlet extension of the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barger, Vernon; McCaskey, Mathew; Langacker, Paul; Ramsey-Musolf, Michael; Shaughnessy, Gabe

    2009-01-01

    We analyze a simple extension of the standard model (SM) obtained by adding a complex singlet to the scalar sector (cxSM). We show that the cxSM can contain one or two viable cold dark matter candidates and analyze the conditions on the parameters of the scalar potential that yield the observed relic density. When the cxSM potential contains a global U(1) symmetry that is both softly and spontaneously broken, it contains both a viable dark matter candidate and the ingredients necessary for a strong first order electroweak phase transition as needed for electroweak baryogenesis. We also study the implications of the model for discovery of a Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider.

  8. Extension of association models to complex chemicals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Ane Søgaard

    Summary of “Extension of association models to complex chemicals”. Ph.D. thesis by Ane Søgaard Avlund The subject of this thesis is application of SAFT type equations of state (EoS). Accurate and predictive thermodynamic models are important in many industries including the petroleum industry......; CPA and sPC-SAFT. Phase equilibrium and monomer fraction calculations with sPC-SAFT for methanol are used in the thesis to illustrate the importance of parameter estimation when using SAFT. Different parameter sets give similar pure component vapor pressure and liquid density results, whereas very...... association is presented in the thesis, and compared to the corresponding lattice theory. The theory for intramolecular association is then applied in connection with sPC-SAFT for mixtures containing glycol ethers. Calculations with sPC-SAFT (without intramolecular association) are presented for comparison...

  9. Are Model Transferability And Complexity Antithetical? Insights From Validation of a Variable-Complexity Empirical Snow Model in Space and Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.

    2017-11-01

    The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.

  10. Environmental study of the waters of Mandovi - Zuari estuarine complex, Goa

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Singbal, S.Y.S.

    variations of some environmental parameters at different stations at surface and bottom waters of complex were studied during 1972-73, 1975 and 1977-78. In general, weak thermal stratification is developed at some stations during monsoon and post...

  11. Environmental Governance as a Model of Environmental Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budi Kristianto

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The concept of environmental governance does not promise practical solutions and provides short guidance in solving intertwined environmental problems in Indonesia. But at least environmental concept is useful when we try to realize environmental management in Indonesia currently. The worst is that the mistake has become routine manifesting in pragmatism in environmental management. Before it all too late, it is better that we keep in mind a German proverb in the beginning of this writing, which more or less, means “ we do not know what the future brings, but we know that we should act.”

  12. The Model of Complex Structure of Quark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rongwu

    2017-09-01

    In Quantum Chromodynamics, quark is known as a kind of point-like fundamental particle which carries mass, charge, color, and flavor, strong interaction takes place between quarks by means of exchanging intermediate particles-gluons. An important consequence of this theory is that, strong interaction is a kind of short-range force, and it has the features of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement''. In order to reveal the nature of strong interaction, the ``bag'' model of vacuum and the ``string'' model of string theory were proposed in the context of quantum mechanics, but neither of them can provide a clear interaction mechanism. This article formulates a new mechanism by proposing a model of complex structure of quark, it can be outlined as follows: (1) Quark (as well as electron, etc) is a kind of complex structure, it is composed of fundamental particle (fundamental matter mass and electricity) and fundamental volume field (fundamental matter flavor and color) which exists in the form of limited volume; fundamental particle lies in the center of fundamental volume field, forms the ``nucleus'' of quark. (2) As static electric force, the color field force between quarks has classical form, it is proportional to the square of the color quantity carried by each color field, and inversely proportional to the area of cross section of overlapping color fields which is along force direction, it has the properties of overlap, saturation, non-central, and constant. (3) Any volume field undergoes deformation when interacting with other volume field, the deformation force follows Hooke's law. (4) The phenomena of ``asymptotic freedom'' and ``quark confinement'' are the result of color field force and deformation force.

  13. Atmospheric dispersion models for environmental pollution applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gifford, F.A.

    1976-01-01

    Pollutants are introduced into the air by many of man's activities. The potentially harmful effects these can cause are, broadly speaking, of two kinds: long-term, possibly large-scale and wide-spread chronic effects, including long-term effects on the earth's climate; and acute, short-term effects such as those associated with urban air pollution. This section is concerned with mathematical cloud or plume models describing the role of the atmosphere, primarily in relation to the second of these, the acute effects of air pollution, i.e., those arising from comparatively high concentration levels. The need for such air pollution modeling studies has increased spectacularly as a result of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1968 and, especially, two key court decisions; the Calvert Cliffs decision, and the Sierra Club ruling on environmental non-degradation

  14. Uncertainty associated with selected environmental transport models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-11-01

    A description is given of the capabilities of several models to predict accurately either pollutant concentrations in environmental media or radiological dose to human organs. The models are discussed in three sections: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations. This procedure is infeasible for food chain models and, therefore, the uncertainty embodied in the models input parameters, rather than the model output, is estimated. Aquatic transport models are divided into one-dimensional, longitudinal-vertical, and longitudinal-horizontal models. Several conclusions were made about the ability of the Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model to predict accurately downwind air concentrations from releases under several sets of conditions. It is concluded that no validation study has been conducted to test the predictions of either aquatic or terrestrial food chain models. Using the aquatic pathway from water to fish to an adult for 137 Cs as an example, a 95% one-tailed confidence limit interval for the predicted exposure is calculated by examining the distributions of the input parameters. Such an interval is found to be 16 times the value of the median exposure. A similar one-tailed limit for the air-grass-cow-milk-thyroid for 131 I and infants was 5.6 times the median dose. Of the three model types discussed in this report,the aquatic transport models appear to do the best job of predicting observed concentrations. However, this conclusion is based on many fewer aquatic validation data than were availaable for atmospheric model validation

  15. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantage of streamlined deployment processes and affordable cloud access to move algorithms and data to the web for discoverability and consumption. In these deployments, environmental models can become available to end users through RESTful web services and consistent application program interfaces (APIs) that consume, manipulate, and store modeling data. RESTful modeling APIs also promote discoverability and guide usability through self-documentation. Embracing the RESTful paradigm allows models to be accessible via a web standard, and the resulting endpoints are platform- and implementation-agnostic while simultaneously presenting significant computational capabilities for spatial and temporal scaling. RESTful APIs present data in a simple verb-noun web request interface: the verb dictates how a resource is consumed using HTTP methods (e.g., GET, POST, and PUT) and the noun represents the URL reference of the resource on which the verb will act. The RESTful API can self-document in both the HTTP response and an interactive web page using the Open API standard. This lets models function as an interoperable service that promotes sharing, documentation, and discoverability. Here, we discuss the

  16. Critical complexity in environmental health practice: simplify and complexify

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keune Hans

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The magic word ‘complexity’ has been buzzing around in science, policy and society for quite some time now. There seems to be a common feel for a ‘new way’ of doing things, for overcoming the limits of tradition. From the combined perspective of critical complexity thinking and environment and health practice we want to contribute to the development of alternative routines that may help overcome the limitations of traditional environment and health science. On the one hand traditional environment and health science is too self-confident with respect to potential scientific insight in environment and health problems: complexity condemns us to limited and ambiguous knowledge and the need for simplification. A more modest attitude would be more realistic from that point of view. On the other hand from a problem solving perspective more boldness is required. Waiting for Godot (perfect undisputed knowledge will not help us with respect to the challenges posed to society by environment and health problems. A sense of urgency is legitimate: the paralysis by traditional analysis should be resolved. Nevertheless this sense of urgency should not withhold us from investing in the problem solving quality of our endeavour; quality takes time, fastness from a quality perspective often leads us to a standstill. We propose the concept of critical complexification of environment and health practice that will enable the integration of relevant actors and factors in a pragmatic manner. We will illustrate this with practical examples and especially draw attention to the practical complexities involved, confronting us not only with fundamental questions, but also with fundamental challenges.

  17. Power distribution in complex environmental negotiations: Does balance matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkardt, N.; Lamb, B.L.; Taylor, J.G.

    1997-01-01

    We studied six interagency negotiations covering Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) hydroelectric power licenses. Negotiations occurred between state and federal resource agencies and developers over project operations and natural resource mitigation. We postulated that a balance of power among parties was necessary for successful negotiations. We found a complex relationship between balanced power and success and conclude that a balance of power was associated with success in these negotiations. Power played a dynamic role in the bargaining and illuminates important considerations for regulatory design.

  18. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  19. Developing integrated methods to address complex resource and environmental issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kathleen S.; Phillips, Jeffrey D.; McCafferty, Anne E.; Clark, Roger N.

    2016-02-08

    IntroductionThis circular provides an overview of selected activities that were conducted within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Integrated Methods Development Project, an interdisciplinary project designed to develop new tools and conduct innovative research requiring integration of geologic, geophysical, geochemical, and remote-sensing expertise. The project was supported by the USGS Mineral Resources Program, and its products and acquired capabilities have broad applications to missions throughout the USGS and beyond.In addressing challenges associated with understanding the location, quantity, and quality of mineral resources, and in investigating the potential environmental consequences of resource development, a number of field and laboratory capabilities and interpretative methodologies evolved from the project that have applications to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster and hazard assessment, and planetary science. New or improved tools and research findings developed within the project have been applied to other projects and activities. Specifically, geophysical equipment and techniques have been applied to a variety of traditional and nontraditional mineral- and energy-resource studies, military applications, environmental investigations, and applied research activities that involve climate change, mapping techniques, and monitoring capabilities. Diverse applied geochemistry activities provide a process-level understanding of the mobility, chemical speciation, and bioavailability of elements, particularly metals and metalloids, in a variety of environmental settings. Imaging spectroscopy capabilities maintained and developed within the project have been applied to traditional resource studies as well as to studies related to ecosystem health, human health, disaster assessment, and planetary science. Brief descriptions of capabilities and laboratory facilities and summaries of some

  20. Clinical Complexity in Medicine: A Measurement Model of Task and Patient Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, R; Weir, C; Del Fiol, G

    2016-01-01

    Complexity in medicine needs to be reduced to simple components in a way that is comprehensible to researchers and clinicians. Few studies in the current literature propose a measurement model that addresses both task and patient complexity in medicine. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to understand and measure clinical complexity by incorporating both task and patient complexity components focusing on the infectious disease domain. The measurement model was adapted and modified for the healthcare domain. Three clinical infectious disease teams were observed, audio-recorded and transcribed. Each team included an infectious diseases expert, one infectious diseases fellow, one physician assistant and one pharmacy resident fellow. The transcripts were parsed and the authors independently coded complexity attributes. This baseline measurement model of clinical complexity was modified in an initial set of coding processes and further validated in a consensus-based iterative process that included several meetings and email discussions by three clinical experts from diverse backgrounds from the Department of Biomedical Informatics at the University of Utah. Inter-rater reliability was calculated using Cohen's kappa. The proposed clinical complexity model consists of two separate components. The first is a clinical task complexity model with 13 clinical complexity-contributing factors and 7 dimensions. The second is the patient complexity model with 11 complexity-contributing factors and 5 dimensions. The measurement model for complexity encompassing both task and patient complexity will be a valuable resource for future researchers and industry to measure and understand complexity in healthcare.

  1. Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan

    2007-01-01

    Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the

  2. Reducing Spatial Data Complexity for Classification Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruta, Dymitr; Gabrys, Bogdan

    2007-11-01

    Intelligent data analytics gradually becomes a day-to-day reality of today's businesses. However, despite rapidly increasing storage and computational power current state-of-the-art predictive models still can not handle massive and noisy corporate data warehouses. What is more adaptive and real-time operational environment requires multiple models to be frequently retrained which further hinders their use. Various data reduction techniques ranging from data sampling up to density retention models attempt to address this challenge by capturing a summarised data structure, yet they either do not account for labelled data or degrade the classification performance of the model trained on the condensed dataset. Our response is a proposition of a new general framework for reducing the complexity of labelled data by means of controlled spatial redistribution of class densities in the input space. On the example of Parzen Labelled Data Compressor (PLDC) we demonstrate a simulatory data condensation process directly inspired by the electrostatic field interaction where the data are moved and merged following the attracting and repelling interactions with the other labelled data. The process is controlled by the class density function built on the original data that acts as a class-sensitive potential field ensuring preservation of the original class density distributions, yet allowing data to rearrange and merge joining together their soft class partitions. As a result we achieved a model that reduces the labelled datasets much further than any competitive approaches yet with the maximum retention of the original class densities and hence the classification performance. PLDC leaves the reduced dataset with the soft accumulative class weights allowing for efficient online updates and as shown in a series of experiments if coupled with Parzen Density Classifier (PDC) significantly outperforms competitive data condensation methods in terms of classification performance at the

  3. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  4. Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B.

    2000-01-01

    "What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead

  5. On sampling and modeling complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsili, Matteo; Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Roudi, Yasser

    2013-01-01

    The study of complex systems is limited by the fact that only a few variables are accessible for modeling and sampling, which are not necessarily the most relevant ones to explain the system behavior. In addition, empirical data typically undersample the space of possible states. We study a generic framework where a complex system is seen as a system of many interacting degrees of freedom, which are known only in part, that optimize a given function. We show that the underlying distribution with respect to the known variables has the Boltzmann form, with a temperature that depends on the number of unknown variables. In particular, when the influence of the unknown degrees of freedom on the known variables is not too irregular, the temperature decreases as the number of variables increases. This suggests that models can be predictable only when the number of relevant variables is less than a critical threshold. Concerning sampling, we argue that the information that a sample contains on the behavior of the system is quantified by the entropy of the frequency with which different states occur. This allows us to characterize the properties of maximally informative samples: within a simple approximation, the most informative frequency size distributions have power law behavior and Zipf’s law emerges at the crossover between the under sampled regime and the regime where the sample contains enough statistics to make inferences on the behavior of the system. These ideas are illustrated in some applications, showing that they can be used to identify relevant variables or to select the most informative representations of data, e.g. in data clustering. (paper)

  6. Model evaluation methodology applicable to environmental assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaeffer, D.L.

    1979-08-01

    A model evaluation methodology is presented to provide a systematic framework within which the adequacy of environmental assessment models might be examined. The necessity for such a tool is motivated by the widespread use of models for predicting the environmental consequences of various human activities and by the reliance on these model predictions for deciding whether a particular activity requires the deployment of costly control measures. Consequently, the uncertainty associated with prediction must be established for the use of such models. The methodology presented here consists of six major tasks: model examination, algorithm examination, data evaluation, sensitivity analyses, validation studies, and code comparison. This methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart to show the logical interrelatedness of the various tasks. Emphasis has been placed on identifying those parameters which are most important in determining the predictive outputs of a model. Importance has been attached to the process of collecting quality data. A method has been developed for analyzing multiplicative chain models when the input parameters are statistically independent and lognormally distributed. Latin hypercube sampling has been offered as a promising candidate for doing sensitivity analyses. Several different ways of viewing the validity of a model have been presented. Criteria are presented for selecting models for environmental assessment purposes

  7. Environmental coupling and population dynamics in the PE545 light-harvesting complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghtar, Mortaza; Kleinekathöfer, Ulrich, E-mail: u.kleinekathoefer@jacobs-university.de

    2016-01-15

    Long-lived quantum coherences have been shown experimentally in the Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complex of green sulfur bacteria as well as in the phycoerythrin 545 (PE545) photosynthetic antenna system of marine algae. A combination of classical molecular dynamics simulations, quantum chemistry and quantum dynamical calculations is employed to determine the excitation transfer dynamics in PE545. One key property of the light-harvesting system concerning the excitation transfer and dephasing phenomena is the spectral density. This quantity is determined from time series of the vertical excitation energies of the aggregate. In the present study we focus on the quantum dynamical simulations using the earlier QM/MM calculations as input. Employing an ensemble-averaged classical path-based wave packet dynamics, the excitation transfer dynamics between the different bilins in the PE545 complex is determined and analyzed. Furthermore, the nature of the environmental fluctuations determining the transfer dynamics is discussed. - Highlights: • Modeling of excitation energy transfer in the light-harvesting system PE545. • Combination of molecular dynamics simulations, quantum chemistry and quantum dynamics. • Spectral densities for bilins in the PE545 complex.

  8. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This article reviews the forthcoming book Models and Parameters for Environmental Radiological Assessments, which presents a unified compilation of models and parameters for assessing the impact on man of radioactive discharges, both routine and accidental, into the environment. Models presented in this book include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Summaries are presented for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously for each of the transport and dosimetry areas previously mentioned, and details are available in the literature cited. A chapter of example problems illustrates many of the methodologies presented throughout the text. Models and parameters presented are based on the results of extensive literature reviews and evaluations performed primarily by the staff of the Health and Safety Research Division of Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  9. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farcas, Adrian [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom); Thompson, Paul M. [Lighthouse Field Station, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cromarty IV11 8YL (United Kingdom); Merchant, Nathan D., E-mail: nathan.merchant@cefas.co.uk [Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Pakefield Road, Lowestoft, NR33 0HT (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  10. Underwater noise modelling for environmental impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farcas, Adrian; Thompson, Paul M.; Merchant, Nathan D.

    2016-01-01

    Assessment of underwater noise is increasingly required by regulators of development projects in marine and freshwater habitats, and noise pollution can be a constraining factor in the consenting process. Noise levels arising from the proposed activity are modelled and the potential impact on species of interest within the affected area is then evaluated. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the relationship between noise levels and impacts on aquatic species, the science underlying noise modelling is well understood. Nevertheless, many environmental impact assessments (EIAs) do not reflect best practice, and stakeholders and decision makers in the EIA process are often unfamiliar with the concepts and terminology that are integral to interpreting noise exposure predictions. In this paper, we review the process of underwater noise modelling and explore the factors affecting predictions of noise exposure. Finally, we illustrate the consequences of errors and uncertainties in noise modelling, and discuss future research needs to reduce uncertainty in noise assessments.

  11. Knowledge-Based Environmental Context Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pukite, P. R.; Challou, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    As we move from the oil-age to an energy infrastructure based on renewables, the need arises for new educational tools to support the analysis of geophysical phenomena and their behavior and properties. Our objective is to present models of these phenomena to make them amenable for incorporation into more comprehensive analysis contexts. Starting at the level of a college-level computer science course, the intent is to keep the models tractable and therefore practical for student use. Based on research performed via an open-source investigation managed by DARPA and funded by the Department of Interior [1], we have adapted a variety of physics-based environmental models for a computer-science curriculum. The original research described a semantic web architecture based on patterns and logical archetypal building-blocks (see figure) well suited for a comprehensive environmental modeling framework. The patterns span a range of features that cover specific land, atmospheric and aquatic domains intended for engineering modeling within a virtual environment. The modeling engine contained within the server relied on knowledge-based inferencing capable of supporting formal terminology (through NASA JPL's Semantic Web for Earth and Environmental Technology (SWEET) ontology and a domain-specific language) and levels of abstraction via integrated reasoning modules. One of the key goals of the research was to simplify models that were ordinarily computationally intensive to keep them lightweight enough for interactive or virtual environment contexts. The breadth of the elements incorporated is well-suited for learning as the trend toward ontologies and applying semantic information is vital for advancing an open knowledge infrastructure. As examples of modeling, we have covered such geophysics topics as fossil-fuel depletion, wind statistics, tidal analysis, and terrain modeling, among others. Techniques from the world of computer science will be necessary to promote efficient

  12. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  13. Modeling the Structure and Complexity of Engineering Routine Design Problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jauregui Becker, Juan Manuel; Wits, Wessel Willems; van Houten, Frederikus J.A.M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a model to structure routine design problems as well as a model of its design complexity. The idea is that having a proper model of the structure of such problems enables understanding its complexity, and likewise, a proper understanding of its complexity enables the development

  14. Fan array wind tunnel: a multifunctional, complex environmental flow manipulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, Christopher; Veismann, Marcel; Gharib, Morteza

    2017-11-01

    The recent emergence of small unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has reshaped the aerospace testing environment. Traditional closed-loop wind tunnels are not particularly suited nor easily retrofit to take advantage of these coordinated, controls-based rotorcraft. As such, a highly configurable, novel wind tunnel aimed at addressing the unmet technical challenges associated with single or formation flight performance of autonomous drone systems is presented. The open-loop fan array wind tunnel features 1296 individually controllable DC fans arranged in a 2.88m x 2.88m array. The fan array can operate with and without a tunnel enclosure and is able to rotate between horizontal and vertical testing configurations. In addition to standard variable speed uniform flow, the fan array can generate both unsteady and shear flows. Through the aid of smaller side fan array units, vortex flows are also possible. Conceptual design, fabrication, and validation of the tunnel performance will be presented, including theoretical and computational predictions of flow speed and turbulence intensity. Validation of these parameters is accomplished through standard pitot-static and hot-wire techniques. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) of various complex flows will also be shown. This material is based upon work supported by the Center for Autonomous Systems and Technologies (CAST) at the Graduate Aerospace Laboratories of the California Institute of Technology (GALCIT).

  15. Environmental management policy analysis using complex system simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Eeckhout, E.; Roberts, D.; Oakes, R.; Shieh, A.; Hardie, W.; Pope, P.

    1999-01-01

    The two primary modules of Envirosim (the model of Los Alamos TA-55 and the WIPP transport/storage model) have been combined into one application, with the simulated waste generated by TA-55 operations being fed to storage, packaging, and transport simulation entities. Three simulation scenarios were executed which demonstrate the usefulness of Envirosim as a policy analysis tool for use in planning shipments to WIPP. A graphical user interface (GUI) has been implemented using IDL (Interactive Data Language) which allows the analyst to easily view simulation results. While IDL is not necessarily the graphics interface that would be selected for a production version of Envirosim, it does provide some powerful data manipulation capabilities, and it runs on a variety of platforms

  16. Global Environmental Change: An integrated modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Den Elzen, M.

    1993-01-01

    Two major global environmental problems are dealt with: climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion (and their mutual interactions), briefly surveyed in part 1. In Part 2 a brief description of the integrated modelling framework IMAGE 1.6 is given. Some specific parts of the model are described in more detail in other Chapters, e.g. the carbon cycle model, the atmospheric chemistry model, the halocarbon model, and the UV-B impact model. In Part 3 an uncertainty analysis of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion is presented (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 briefly reviews the social and economic uncertainties implied by future greenhouse gas emissions. Chapters 6 and 7 describe a model and sensitivity analysis pertaining to the scientific uncertainties and/or lacunae in the sources and sinks of methane and carbon dioxide, and their biogeochemical feedback processes. Chapter 8 presents an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the carbon cycle model, the halocarbon model, and the IMAGE model 1.6 as a whole. Part 4 presents the risk assessment methodology as applied to the problems of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion more specifically. In Chapter 10, this methodology is used as a means with which to asses current ozone policy and a wide range of halocarbon policies. Chapter 11 presents and evaluates the simulated globally-averaged temperature and sea level rise (indicators) for the IPCC-1990 and 1992 scenarios, concluding with a Low Risk scenario, which would meet the climate targets. Chapter 12 discusses the impact of sea level rise on the frequency of the Dutch coastal defence system (indicator) for the IPCC-1990 scenarios. Chapter 13 presents projections of mortality rates due to stratospheric ozone depletion based on model simulations employing the UV-B chain model for a number of halocarbon policies. Chapter 14 presents an approach for allocating future emissions of CO 2 among regions. (Abstract Truncated)

  17. DOE's efforts to correct environmental problems of the nuclear weapons complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rezendes, V.S.

    1990-03-01

    This report focuses on four main issues: the environmental problems at DOE's nuclear weapons complex, recent changes in DOE's organizational structure, DOE's 1991 budget request, and the need for effective management systems. This report concludes that the environmental problems are enormous and will take decades to resolve. Widespread contamination can be found at many DOE sites, and the full extent of the environmental problems is unknown. DOE has taken several steps during the past year to better deal with these problems, including making organizational improvements and requesting additional funds for environmental restoration and waste management activities

  18. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeh, Gour T.; Gwo, Jin Ping; Siegel, Malcolm D.; Li, Ming-Hsu; Fang, Yilin; Zhang, Fan; Luo, Wensui; Yabusaki, Steven B.

    2013-01-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co). The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  19. Innovative mathematical modeling in environmental remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, Gour T. [Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute (Taiwan); National Central Univ. (Taiwan); Univ. of Central Florida (United States); Gwo, Jin Ping [Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Rockville, MD (United States); Siegel, Malcolm D. [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Li, Ming-Hsu [National Central Univ. (Taiwan); ; Fang, Yilin [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhang, Fan [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Luo, Wensui [Inst. of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (China); Yabusaki, Steven B. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-05-01

    There are two different ways to model reactive transport: ad hoc and innovative reaction-based approaches. The former, such as the Kd simplification of adsorption, has been widely employed by practitioners, while the latter has been mainly used in scientific communities for elucidating mechanisms of biogeochemical transport processes. It is believed that innovative mechanistic-based models could serve as protocols for environmental remediation as well. This paper reviews the development of a mechanistically coupled fluid flow, thermal transport, hydrologic transport, and reactive biogeochemical model and example-applications to environmental remediation problems. Theoretical bases are sufficiently described. Four example problems previously carried out are used to demonstrate how numerical experimentation can be used to evaluate the feasibility of different remediation approaches. The first one involved the application of a 56-species uranium tailing problem to the Melton Branch Subwatershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the parallel version of the model. Simulations were made to demonstrate the potential mobilization of uranium and other chelating agents in the proposed waste disposal site. The second problem simulated laboratory-scale system to investigate the role of natural attenuation in potential off-site migration of uranium from uranium mill tailings after restoration. It showed inadequacy of using a single Kd even for a homogeneous medium. The third example simulated laboratory experiments involving extremely high concentrations of uranium, technetium, aluminum, nitrate, and toxic metals (e.g.,Ni, Cr, Co).The fourth example modeled microbially-mediated immobilization of uranium in an unconfined aquifer using acetate amendment in a field-scale experiment. The purposes of these modeling studies were to simulate various mechanisms of mobilization and immobilization of radioactive wastes and to illustrate how to apply reactive transport models

  20. THE EVALUATION OF DIVERSITY OF EDUCATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL MODELS OF LATVIAN RURAL SCHOOLS

    OpenAIRE

    Katane, Irēna; Laizāne, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Under conditions of changes and instability in any state rural schools are faced to look for different directions of development in order to manage in the rural areas. Thus the inner structure of rural schools becomes complex and causes formation of new educational environmental models of Latvian rural schools. The aims of the article: 1) to give substantiation of the concept model; 2) to give classification of educational environmental models of rural schools; 3) to emphasize the advantages ...

  1. Development of Dynamic Environmental Effect Calculation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il

    2010-01-01

    The short-term, long-term decay heat, and radioactivity are considered as main environmental parameters of SF and HLA. In this study, the dynamic calculation models for radioactivity, short-term decay heat, and long-term heat load of the SF are developed and incorporated into the Doneness code. The spent fuel accumulation has become a major issue for sustainable operation of nuclear power plants. If a once-through fuel cycle is selected, the SF will be disposed into the repository. Otherwise, in case of fast reactor or reuse cycle, the SF will be reprocessed and the high level waste will be disposed

  2. Modeling of environmentally significant interfaces: Two case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williford, R.E.

    2006-01-01

    When some parameters cannot be easily measured experimentally, mathematical models can often be used to deconvolute or interpret data collected on complex systems, such as those characteristic of many environmental problems. These models can help quantify the contributions of various physical or chemical phenomena that contribute to the overall behavior, thereby enabling the scientist to control and manipulate these phenomena, and thus to optimize the performance of the material or device. In the first case study presented here, a model is used to test the hypothesis that oxygen interactions with hydrogen on the catalyst particles of solid oxide fuel cell anodes can sometimes occur a finite distance away from the triple phase boundary (TPB), so that such reactions are not restricted to the TPB as normally assumed. The model may help explain a discrepancy between the observed structure of SOFCs and their performance. The second case study develops a simple physical model that allows engineers to design and control the sizes and shapes of mesopores in silica thin films. Such pore design can be useful for enhancing the selectivity and reactivity of environmental sensors and catalysts. This paper demonstrates the mutually beneficial interactions between experiment and modeling in the solution of a wide range of problems

  3. Simplified risk model support for environmental management integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eide, S.A.; Jones, J.L.; Wierman, T.E.

    1998-01-01

    This paper summarizes the process and results of human health risk assessments of the US Department of Energy (DOE) complex-wide programs for high-level waste, transuranic waste, low-level, mixed low-level waste, and spent nuclear fuel. The DOE baseline programs and alternatives for these five material types were characterized by disposition maps (material flow diagrams) and supporting information in the May 1997 report 'A Contractor Report to the Department of Energy on Environmental Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft). Risk analyses were performed using the Simplified Risk Model (SRM), developed to support DOE Environmental Management Integration studies. The SRM risk analyses consistently and comprehensively cover the life cycle programs for the five material types, from initial storage through final disposition. Risk results are presented at several levels: DOE complex-wide, material type program, individual DOE sites, and DOE site activities. The detailed risk results are documented in the February 1998 report 'Human Health Risk Comparisons for Environmental Management Baseline Programs and Integration Opportunities' (Discussion Draft)

  4. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  5. Modeling competitive substitution in a polyelectrolyte complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, B.; Muthukumar, M.

    2015-01-01

    We have simulated the invasion of a polyelectrolyte complex made of a polycation chain and a polyanion chain, by another longer polyanion chain, using the coarse-grained united atom model for the chains and the Langevin dynamics methodology. Our simulations reveal many intricate details of the substitution reaction in terms of conformational changes of the chains and competition between the invading chain and the chain being displaced for the common complementary chain. We show that the invading chain is required to be sufficiently longer than the chain being displaced for effecting the substitution. Yet, having the invading chain to be longer than a certain threshold value does not reduce the substitution time much further. While most of the simulations were carried out in salt-free conditions, we show that presence of salt facilitates the substitution reaction and reduces the substitution time. Analysis of our data shows that the dominant driving force for the substitution process involving polyelectrolytes lies in the release of counterions during the substitution

  6. Modelling of information processes management of educational complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Оксана Николаевна Ромашкова

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This work concerns information model of the educational complex which includes several schools. A classification of educational complexes formed in Moscow is given. There are also a consideration of the existing organizational structure of the educational complex and a suggestion of matrix management structure. Basic management information processes of the educational complex were conceptualized.

  7. Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoci, Angelo; Sodini, Mauro

    2009-01-01

    We analyze an overlapping generations model where agent's welfare depends on three goods: leisure, environmental quality and consumption of a private good. We assume that the production process of the private good depletes the natural resource and that the consumption of the private good alleviates the damages due to environmental deterioration. In such context, we show that individuals' reactions to environmental deterioration may lead to complex dynamics, in particular to the rise of periodic orbits and chaos.

  8. Sandpile model for relaxation in complex systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vazquez, A.; Sotolongo-Costa, O.; Brouers, F.

    1997-10-01

    The relaxation in complex systems is, in general, nonexponential. After an initial rapid decay the system relaxes slowly following a long time tail. In the present paper a sandpile moderation of the relaxation in complex systems is analysed. Complexity is introduced by a process of avalanches in the Bethe lattice and a feedback mechanism which leads to slower decay with increasing time. In this way, some features of relaxation in complex systems: long time tails relaxation, aging, and fractal distribution of characteristic times, are obtained by simple computer simulations. (author)

  9. Concept of Complex Environmental Monitoring Network - Vardzia Rock Cut City Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elashvili, Mikheil; Vacheishvili, Nikoloz; Margottini, Claudio; Basilaia, Giorgi; Chkhaidze, Davit; Kvavadze, Davit; Spizzichino, Daniele; Boscagli, Franceso; Kirkitadze, Giorgi; Adikashvili, Luka; Navrozashvili, Levan

    2016-04-01

    Vardzia represents an unique cultural heritage monument - rock cut city, which unites architectural monument and Natural-Geological complex. Such monuments are particularly vulnerable and their restoration and conservation requires complex approach. It is curved in various layers of volcanic tuffs and covers several hectares of area, with chronologically different segments of construction. This monument, as many similar monuments worldwide, is subjected to slow but permanent process of destruction, expressed in following factors: surface weathering of rock, active tectonics (aseismic displacement along the active faults and earthquakes), interaction between lithologically different rock layers, existence of major cracks and associated complex block structure, surface rainwater runoff and infiltrated ground water, temperature variations, etc. During its lifetime, Vardzia was heavily damaged by Historical Earthquake of 1283 and only partly restored afterwards. The technological progress together with the increased knowledge about ongoing environmental processes, established the common understanding that the complex monitoring of the environment represents the essential component for resolving such a principal issues, as: Proper management and prevention of natural disasters; Modeling of environmental processes, their short and long term prognosis; Monitoring of macro and micro climate; Safe functioning and preservation of important constructions. Research Center of Cultural Heritage and Environment of Ilia State University in cooperation with Experts from ISPRA, with the funding from the State agency of Cultural Heritage, has developed a concept of Vardzia complex monitoring network. Concept of the network includes: monitoring local meteorological conditions (meteorological station), monitoring microclimate in caves (temperature and humidity in the air and rock), monitoring microtremors and ambient seismic noise in Vardzia (local strong motion network), monitoring

  10. Effects of environmental parameters on the chestnut gall wasp and its complex of indigenous parasitoids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonsignore, Carmelo Peter; Bernardo, Umberto

    2018-04-01

    The chestnut gall wasp (CGW), Dryocosmus kuriphilus, an invasive pest native to China, has caused severe yield and economic losses to chestnut production in Europe since its arrival in 2002. In Southern Italy, the complex of indigenous parasitoids colonizing CGW was monitored between 2013 and 2015, with the aim of estimating the composition of the indigenous parasitoid complex, its ability to control CGW populations, and the interactions of both factors with several measured environmental parameters. We compared results among three differently managed field types. Results showed an increase in the rate of parasitism both when the host population density was lower and in unmanaged chestnut stands with more natural conditions. The percentage of parasitism in galls was related to morphological traits of the galls and to higher seasonal temperatures, which reduced the parasitism intensity because CGW develops earlier under such conditions. The host-parasitoid mortality inside galls varied among sites and was associated mostly with rot fungi during wet spring and summer months. Parasitoid species richness was similar among the study sites, but the proportion of parasitoid species differed between orchards and unmanaged coppice stands. The timing of attack by parasitoids followed a species-specific successional sequence throughout the larva-to-adult life cycle of the CGW. These interactions should be considered in future research on trophic relationships and when modeling invasive scenarios for new pest species.

  11. Finding Positive Feedback Loops in Environmental Models: A Mathematical Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikholeslami, R.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Dynamics of most earth and environmental systems are generally governed by interactions between several hydrological (e.g., soil moisture and precipitation), geological (e.g., and erosion), geochemical (e.g., nutrient loading), and atmospheric (e.g., temperature) processes which operate on a range of spatio-temporal scales. These interactions create numerous feedback mechanisms with complex behaviours, and their understanding and representation can vary depending on the scale in space and/or time at which the system is analyzed. One of the most crucial characteristics of such complex systems is the existence of positive feedback loops. The presence of positive feedbacks may increase complexity, accelerate change, or trigger multiple stable states in the underlying dynamical system. Furthermore, because of the inherent non-linearity, it is often very difficult to obtain a general idea of their complex dynamics. Feedback loops in environmental systems have been well recognized and qualitatively discussed. With a quantitative/mathematical view, in this presentation, we address the question of how the positive feedback loops can be identified/implemented in environmental models. We investigate the nature of different feedback mechanisms and dynamics of simple example case studies that underlie fundamental processes such as vegetation, precipitation and soil moisture. To do this, we apply the concept of "interaction graph" from mathematics which is built from the Jacobian matrix of the dynamical system. The Jacobian matrix contains information on how variations of one state variable depends on variations of other variables, and thus can be used to understand the dynamical possibilities of feedback mechanisms in the underlying system. Moreover, this study highlights that there are some situations where the existence of positive feedback loops can cause multiple stable states, and thereby regime shifts in environmental systems. Systems with multiple stable states are

  12. Modeling Complex Chemical Systems: Problems and Solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijk, Jan

    2016-09-01

    Non-equilibrium plasmas in complex gas mixtures are at the heart of numerous contemporary technologies. They typically contain dozens to hundreds of species, involved in hundreds to thousands of reactions. Chemists and physicists have always been interested in what are now called chemical reduction techniques (CRT's). The idea of such CRT's is that they reduce the number of species that need to be considered explicitly without compromising the validity of the model. This is usually achieved on the basis of an analysis of the reaction time scales of the system under study, which identifies species that are in partial equilibrium after a given time span. The first such CRT that has been widely used in plasma physics was developed in the 1960's and resulted in the concept of effective ionization and recombination rates. It was later generalized to systems in which multiple levels are effected by transport. In recent years there has been a renewed interest in tools for chemical reduction and reaction pathway analysis. An example of the latter is the PumpKin tool. Another trend is that techniques that have previously been developed in other fields of science are adapted as to be able to handle the plasma state of matter. Examples are the Intrinsic Low Dimension Manifold (ILDM) method and its derivatives, which originate from combustion engineering, and the general-purpose Principle Component Analysis (PCA) technique. In this contribution we will provide an overview of the most common reduction techniques, then critically assess the pros and cons of the methods that have gained most popularity in recent years. Examples will be provided for plasmas in argon and carbon dioxide.

  13. Modeling the Chemical Complexity in Titan's Atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuitton, Veronique; Yelle, Roger; Klippenstein, Stephen J.; Horst, Sarah; Lavvas, Panayotis

    2018-06-01

    Titan's atmospheric chemistry is extremely complicated because of the multiplicity of chemical as well as physical processes involved. Chemical processes begin with the dissociation and ionization of the most abundant species, N2 and CH4, by a variety of energy sources, i.e. solar UV and X-ray photons, suprathermal electrons (reactions involving radicals as well as positive and negative ions, all possibly in some excited electronic and vibrational state. Heterogeneous chemistry at the surface of the aerosols could also play a significant role. The efficiency and outcome of these reactions depends strongly on the physical characteristics of the atmosphere, namely pressure and temperature, ranging from 1.5×103 to 10-10 mbar and from 70 to 200 K, respectively. Moreover, the distribution of the species is affected by molecular diffusion and winds as well as escape from the top of the atmosphere and condensation in the lower stratosphere.Photochemical and microphysical models are the keystones of our understanding of Titan's atmospheric chemistry. Their main objective is to compute the distribution and nature of minor chemical species (typically containing up to 6 carbon atoms) and haze particles, respectively. Density profiles are compared to the available observations, allowing to identify important processes and to highlight those that remain to be constrained in the laboratory, experimentally and/or theoretically. We argue that positive ion chemistry is at the origin of complex organic molecules, such as benzene, ammonia and hydrogen isocyanide while neutral-neutral radiative association reactions are a significant source of alkanes. We find that negatively charged macromolecules (m/z ~100) attract the abundant positive ions, which ultimately leads to the formation of the aerosols. We also discuss the possibility that an incoming flux of oxygen from Enceladus, another Saturn's satellite, is responsible for the presence of oxygen-bearing species in Titan's reductive

  14. Urban habitat complexity affects species richness but not environmental filtering of morphologically-diverse ants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ossola

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Habitat complexity is a major determinant of structure and diversity of ant assemblages. Following the size-grain hypothesis, smaller ant species are likely to be advantaged in more complex habitats compared to larger species. Habitat complexity can act as an environmental filter based on species size and morphological traits, therefore affecting the overall structure and diversity of ant assemblages. In natural and semi-natural ecosystems, habitat complexity is principally regulated by ecological successions or disturbance such as fire and grazing. Urban ecosystems provide an opportunity to test relationships between habitat, ant assemblage structure and ant traits using novel combinations of habitat complexity generated and sustained by human management. We sampled ant assemblages in low-complexity and high-complexity parks, and high-complexity woodland remnants, hypothesizing that (i ant abundance and species richness would be higher in high-complexity urban habitats, (ii ant assemblages would differ between low- and high-complexity habitats and (iii ants living in high-complexity habitats would be smaller than those living in low-complexity habitats. Contrary to our hypothesis, ant species richness was higher in low-complexity habitats compared to high-complexity habitats. Overall, ant assemblages were significantly different among the habitat complexity types investigated, although ant size and morphology remained the same. Habitat complexity appears to affect the structure of ant assemblages in urban ecosystems as previously observed in natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, the habitat complexity filter does not seem to be linked to ant morphological traits related to body size.

  15. Urban habitat complexity affects species richness but not environmental filtering of morphologically-diverse ants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nash, Michael A.; Christie, Fiona J.; Hahs, Amy K.; Livesley, Stephen J.

    2015-01-01

    Habitat complexity is a major determinant of structure and diversity of ant assemblages. Following the size-grain hypothesis, smaller ant species are likely to be advantaged in more complex habitats compared to larger species. Habitat complexity can act as an environmental filter based on species size and morphological traits, therefore affecting the overall structure and diversity of ant assemblages. In natural and semi-natural ecosystems, habitat complexity is principally regulated by ecological successions or disturbance such as fire and grazing. Urban ecosystems provide an opportunity to test relationships between habitat, ant assemblage structure and ant traits using novel combinations of habitat complexity generated and sustained by human management. We sampled ant assemblages in low-complexity and high-complexity parks, and high-complexity woodland remnants, hypothesizing that (i) ant abundance and species richness would be higher in high-complexity urban habitats, (ii) ant assemblages would differ between low- and high-complexity habitats and (iii) ants living in high-complexity habitats would be smaller than those living in low-complexity habitats. Contrary to our hypothesis, ant species richness was higher in low-complexity habitats compared to high-complexity habitats. Overall, ant assemblages were significantly different among the habitat complexity types investigated, although ant size and morphology remained the same. Habitat complexity appears to affect the structure of ant assemblages in urban ecosystems as previously observed in natural and semi-natural ecosystems. However, the habitat complexity filter does not seem to be linked to ant morphological traits related to body size. PMID:26528416

  16. Modelling the complex dynamics of vegetation, livestock and rainfall ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... In this paper, we present mathematical models that incorporate ideas from complex systems theory to integrate several strands of rangeland theory in a hierarchical framework. ... Keywords: catastrophe theory; complexity theory; disequilibrium; hysteresis; moving attractors

  17. Proceedings of the international symposium on environmental modeling and radioecology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Ueda, Shinji; Kakiuchi, Hideki; Akata, Naofumi

    2007-03-01

    Environmental models using radioecological parameters are essential for predicting the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. Due to the complex behaviors of radionuclides in the environment, simplified models and parameters with ample margins are used for the safety assessment of nuclear facilities to ensure the safety of people in the surrounding area. As a consequence, radiation exposure doses from the radionuclides have generally been overestimated. Information with more precise predictions of the fate of the radionuclides in the environment and realistic radiation dose estimates are necessary for the public acceptance of nuclear facilities. Realistic dose estimates require continuous improvement of the models and their parameters as well as using state of the art modeling techniques and radioecological knowledge. The first commercial nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Japan has been built in Rokkasho, Aomori, and the Institute for Environmental Sciences was established for the purpose of assessing the effects of radionuclides released from the plant. Test runs by the plant using actual spent nuclear fuel began in March 2006. With commercial operation soon to begin, there is increasing concern regarding the behavior of radionuclides in the environment. This was a good time to hold a symposium here in Rokkasho to discuss recent progress in the field of environmental modeling and studies of the behaviors of radionuclides in the environment. The exchange of up-to-date information between modelers and experiments was an important aspect of the symposium. The symposium featured 26 oral lectures and 32 poster presentations. The 57 of the presented papers are indexed individually. (J.P.N.)

  18. Bacterial biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relations are modified by environmental complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenheder, Silke; Bulling, Mark T; Solan, Martin; Prosser, James I

    2010-05-26

    With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity) relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity ecosystem functioning relationships, suggests that detailed knowledge of how individual

  19. Bacterial biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relations are modified by environmental complexity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silke Langenheder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the recognition that environmental change resulting from anthropogenic activities is causing a global decline in biodiversity, much attention has been devoted to understanding how changes in biodiversity may alter levels of ecosystem functioning. Although environmental complexity has long been recognised as a major driving force in evolutionary processes, it has only recently been incorporated into biodiversity-ecosystem functioning investigations. Environmental complexity is expected to strengthen the positive effect of species richness on ecosystem functioning, mainly because it leads to stronger complementarity effects, such as resource partitioning and facilitative interactions among species when the number of available resource increases. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here we implemented an experiment to test the combined effect of species richness and environmental complexity, more specifically, resource richness on ecosystem functioning over time. We show, using all possible combinations of species within a bacterial community consisting of six species, and all possible combinations of three substrates, that diversity-functioning (metabolic activity relationships change over time from linear to saturated. This was probably caused by a combination of limited complementarity effects and negative interactions among competing species as the experiment progressed. Even though species richness and resource richness both enhanced ecosystem functioning, they did so independently from each other. Instead there were complex interactions between particular species and substrate combinations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our study shows clearly that both species richness and environmental complexity increase ecosystem functioning. The finding that there was no direct interaction between these two factors, but that instead rather complex interactions between combinations of certain species and resources underlie positive biodiversity

  20. An electricity and environmental policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanson, D.A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper describes work being done to simulate the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA), Title IV, Acidic Deposition Control, which introduced tradable, bankable SO 2 emission allowances. The Title IV simulations are compared with three other scenarios on a regional basis in order to calculate the following: the absolute cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach, the relative cost savings of the tradable/ bankable approach derived from a baseline of no controls, the environmental improvement, measured in terms of SO 2 emission reduction, that will be achieved under Title IV compared with a more rigid command-and-control regulation with the same cost. Hence, the simulations illustrate the basic point that more efficient market-based regulation can either reduce costs or can provide enhanced environmental quality, or both. It is important for policy formation to get a handle on relative magnitudes. The National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP) 1990 Assessment suggested a 25% cost saving from tradable emission allowances relative to command-and-control. Both the relative savings potential and the absolute savings potential matter because a small relative savings in a large regulatory program may still be worth pursuing. Regional cost reductions and environmental improvements are of particular interest. However, this study goes further to characterize likely SO 2 emission trading patterns within and among utility operating systems. The study also characterizes the coal market and the induced sulfur premiums over time and the market price path for SO 2 emission allowances. It is shown that the sulfur premium is equivalent to the SO 2 allowance price. This paper focuses on the methodology and on the new electric utility planning and compliance model which was designed for the study

  1. Generative complexity of Gray-Scott model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamatzky, Andrew

    2018-03-01

    In the Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion system one reactant is constantly fed in the system, another reactant is reproduced by consuming the supplied reactant and also converted to an inert product. The rate of feeding one reactant in the system and the rate of removing another reactant from the system determine configurations of concentration profiles: stripes, spots, waves. We calculate the generative complexity-a morphological complexity of concentration profiles grown from a point-wise perturbation of the medium-of the Gray-Scott system for a range of the feeding and removal rates. The morphological complexity is evaluated using Shannon entropy, Simpson diversity, approximation of Lempel-Ziv complexity, and expressivity (Shannon entropy divided by space-filling). We analyse behaviour of the systems with highest values of the generative morphological complexity and show that the Gray-Scott systems expressing highest levels of the complexity are composed of the wave-fragments (similar to wave-fragments in sub-excitable media) and travelling localisations (similar to quasi-dissipative solitons and gliders in Conway's Game of Life).

  2. Environmental flows in hydro-economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereau, Jean-Christophe; Pryet, Alexandre

    2018-03-01

    The protection of environmental flows, as a management objective for a regulating agency, needs to be consistent with the aquifer water balance and the degree of resource renewability. A stylized hydro-economic model is used where natural recharge, which sustains environmental flows, is considered both in the aquifer water budget and in the welfare function as ecosystem damage. Groundwater recharge and the associated natural drainage may be neglected for aquifers containing fossil water, where the groundwater is mined. However, when dealing with an aquifer that constitutes a renewable resource, for which recharge is not negligible, natural drainage should explicitly appear in the water budget. In doing so, the optimum path of net extraction rate does not necessarily converge to the recharge rate, but depends on the costs associated with ecosystem damages. The optimal paths and equilibrium values for the water volume and water extraction are analytically derived, and numerical simulations based on the Western La Mancha aquifer (southwest Spain) illustrate the theoretical results of the study.

  3. Web mapping system for complex processing and visualization of environmental geospatial datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny; Okladnikov, Igor

    2016-04-01

    Environmental geospatial datasets (meteorological observations, modeling and reanalysis results, etc.) are used in numerous research applications. Due to a number of objective reasons such as inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets, big dataset volume, complexity of data models used, syntactic and semantic differences that complicate creation and use of unified terminology, the development of environmental geodata access, processing and visualization services as well as client applications turns out to be quite a sophisticated task. According to general INSPIRE requirements to data visualization geoportal web applications have to provide such standard functionality as data overview, image navigation, scrolling, scaling and graphical overlay, displaying map legends and corresponding metadata information. It should be noted that modern web mapping systems as integrated geoportal applications are developed based on the SOA and might be considered as complexes of interconnected software tools for working with geospatial data. In the report a complex web mapping system including GIS web client and corresponding OGC services for working with geospatial (NetCDF, PostGIS) dataset archive is presented. There are three basic tiers of the GIS web client in it: 1. Tier of geospatial metadata retrieved from central MySQL repository and represented in JSON format 2. Tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods handling: --- NetCDF metadata --- Task XML object for configuring user calculations, input and output formats --- OGC WMS/WFS cartographical services 3. Graphical user interface (GUI) tier representing JavaScript objects realizing web application business logic Metadata tier consists of a number of JSON objects containing technical information describing geospatial datasets (such as spatio-temporal resolution, meteorological parameters, valid processing methods, etc). The middleware tier of JavaScript objects implementing methods for handling geospatial

  4. From process complexity to communication effectiveness: A challenge to those within and outside of the environmental sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, K. E.; McGlynn, B. L.

    2014-12-01

    Interdisciplinary work has become a cornerstone in research across the environmental sciences. Our work does so by evaluating biogeochemical cycling, specifically methane, in the context of landscape hydrology. Atmospheric methane is a greenhouse gas 27 times more potent than carbon dioxide and has been increasing at an unprecedented rate. This drastic increase in atmospheric methane has been attributed to anthropogenic activities such as burning of fossil fuels, ruminants, and rice cultivation, which together constitute approximately 67% of global methane sources. Characterizing CH4 flux in natural systems has remained difficult due to complex relationships among environmental variables (e.g. soil temperature and soil water content). To address this, we focus on how the redistribution of water in complex terrain influences the magnitude and direction of flux in upland and riparian soils. Distilling this complex behavior and scaling these observations is complicated by interacting feedback loops and uncertainties associated with global scale modeling. However, progress is critical given that predicting future climate is necessary to forecasting the quantity and distribution of available fresh water, and understanding how ecosystem processes, and energy/food production will be affected. Water sciences and environmental science as a whole must improve communication to a range of audiences, and advocate for researchers, policy makers, and business leaders to work together for a more sustainable future. A crucial step in this process is to optimize the appropriate level of information to convey that is both memorable and meaningful given the complexity of environmental systems. The challenge also extends to artists and filmmakers to present the subject in compelling ways that inspire audiences to take action in their own communities. True integration of professionals across environmental, social, political, and economic disciplines while motivating local involvement

  5. Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model

    OpenAIRE

    Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S.; Breen, Lauren J.; Witt, Regina R.; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

    2016-01-01

    Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of p...

  6. A software engineering perspective on environmental modeling framework design: The object modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    The environmental modeling community has historically been concerned with the proliferation of models and the effort associated with collective model development tasks (e.g., code generation, data provisioning and transformation, etc.). Environmental modeling frameworks (EMFs) have been developed to...

  7. Expert views on scientific policy advice on complex environmental health issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spruijt, P.

    2016-01-01

    Fact-based policies grounded in solid uncontested scientific evidence: this may sound as the ideal relation between science and policy. However, this ideal rarely holds for complex environmental health risks. When scientific knowledge is contested or incomplete, scientists can take different roles

  8. Border Security: A Conceptual Model of Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    law , constitutional powers, environmental regulations, and civil rights, http://tpplegal.files.wordpress.com/2012/05/isds-domestic-legal-process...Violation NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NII Non-Intrusive Inspection POE Port of Entry PPD-8 Presidential Policy Directive 8...security measured? What constitutes a measure of effectiveness for protection? These are all questions presented to representatives of the Department of

  9. Modeling Complex Workflow in Molecular Diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomah, Mohamed E.; Turley, James P.; Lu, Huimin; Jones, Dan

    2010-01-01

    One of the hurdles to achieving personalized medicine has been implementing the laboratory processes for performing and reporting complex molecular tests. The rapidly changing test rosters and complex analysis platforms in molecular diagnostics have meant that many clinical laboratories still use labor-intensive manual processing and testing without the level of automation seen in high-volume chemistry and hematology testing. We provide here a discussion of design requirements and the results of implementation of a suite of lab management tools that incorporate the many elements required for use of molecular diagnostics in personalized medicine, particularly in cancer. These applications provide the functionality required for sample accessioning and tracking, material generation, and testing that are particular to the evolving needs of individualized molecular diagnostics. On implementation, the applications described here resulted in improvements in the turn-around time for reporting of more complex molecular test sets, and significant changes in the workflow. Therefore, careful mapping of workflow can permit design of software applications that simplify even the complex demands of specialized molecular testing. By incorporating design features for order review, software tools can permit a more personalized approach to sample handling and test selection without compromising efficiency. PMID:20007844

  10. Complex systems modeling by cellular automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kroc, J.; Sloot, P.M.A.; Rabuñal Dopico, J.R.; Dorado de la Calle, J.; Pazos Sierra, A.

    2009-01-01

    In recent years, the notion of complex systems proved to be a very useful concept to define, describe, and study various natural phenomena observed in a vast number of scientific disciplines. Examples of scientific disciplines that highly benefit from this concept range from physics, mathematics,

  11. Modeling pitch perception of complex tones

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtsma, A.J.M.

    1986-01-01

    When one listens to a series of harmonic complex tones that have no acoustic energy at their fundamental frequencies, one usually still hears a melody that corresponds to those missing fundamentals. Since it has become evident some two decades ago that neither Helmholtz's difference tone theory nor

  12. 'spup' - An R package for uncertainty propagation in spatial environmental modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sawicka, K.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

    2016-01-01

    Computer models are crucial tools in engineering and environmental sciences for simulating the behaviour of complex systems. While many models are deterministic, the uncertainty in their predictions needs to be estimated before they are used for decision support. Advances in uncertainty analysis

  13. Guidance for modeling causes and effects in environmental problem solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, Carl L.; Williamson, Samuel C.

    1988-01-01

    Environmental problems are difficult to solve because their causes and effects are not easily understood. When attempts are made to analyze causes and effects, the principal challenge is organization of information into a framework that is logical, technically defensible, and easy to understand and communicate. When decisionmakers attempt to solve complex problems before an adequate cause and effect analysis is performed there are serious risks. These risks include: greater reliance on subjective reasoning, lessened chance for scoping an effective problem solving approach, impaired recognition of the need for supplemental information to attain understanding, increased chance for making unsound decisions, and lessened chance for gaining approval and financial support for a program/ Cause and effect relationships can be modeled. This type of modeling has been applied to various environmental problems, including cumulative impact assessment (Dames and Moore 1981; Meehan and Weber 1985; Williamson et al. 1987; Raley et al. 1988) and evaluation of effects of quarrying (Sheate 1986). This guidance for field users was written because of the current interest in documenting cause-effect logic as a part of ecological problem solving. Principal literature sources relating to the modeling approach are: Riggs and Inouye (1975a, b), Erickson (1981), and United States Office of Personnel Management (1986).

  14. Animal Models of Autism: An Epigenetic and Environmental Viewpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keiko Iwata

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Autism is a neurodevelopmental disorder of social behavior, which is more common in males than in females. The causes of autism are unknown; there is evidence for a substantial genetic component, but it is likely that a combination of genetic, environmental and epigenetic factors contribute to its complex pathogenesis. Rodent models that mimic the behavioral deficits of autism can be useful tools for dissecting both the etiology and molecular mechanisms. This review discusses animal models of autism generated by prenatal or neonatal environmental challenges, including virus infection and exposure to valproic acid (VPA or stress. Studies of viral infection models suggest that interleukin-6 can influence fetal development and programming. Prenatal exposure to the histone deacetylase inhibitor VPA has been linked to autism in children, and male VPA-exposed rats exhibit a spectrum of autistic-like behaviors. The experience of prenatal stress produces male-specific behavioral abnormalities in rats. These effects may be mediated by epigenetic modifications such as DNA methylation and histone acetylation resulting in alterations to the transcriptome.

  15. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  16. Physical modelling and testing in environmental geotechnics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garnier, J.; Thorel, L.; Haza, E.

    2000-01-01

    The preservation of natural environment has become a major concern, which affects nowadays a wide range of professionals from local communities administrators to natural resources managers (water, wildlife, flora, etc) and, in the end, to the consumers that we all are. Although totally ignored some fifty years ago, environmental geotechnics has become an emergent area of study and research which borders on the traditional domains, with which the geo-technicians are confronted (soil and rock mechanics, engineering geology, natural and anthropogenic risk management). Dedicated to experimental approaches (in-situ investigations and tests, laboratory tests, small-scale model testing), the Symposium fits in with the geotechnical domains of environment and transport of soil pollutants. These proceedings report some progress of developments in measurement techniques and studies of transport of pollutants in saturated and unsaturated soils in order to improve our understanding of such phenomena within multiphase environments. Experimental investigations on decontamination and isolation methods for polluted soils are discussed. The intention is to assess the impact of in-situ and laboratory tests, as well as small-scale model testing, on engineering practice. One paper is analysed in INIS data base for its specific interest in nuclear industry. The other ones, concerning the energy, are analyzed in ETDE data base

  17. Physical modelling and testing in environmental geotechnics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnier, J.; Thorel, L.; Haza, E. [Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussees a Nantes, 44 - Nantes (France)

    2000-07-01

    The preservation of natural environment has become a major concern, which affects nowadays a wide range of professionals from local communities administrators to natural resources managers (water, wildlife, flora, etc) and, in the end, to the consumers that we all are. Although totally ignored some fifty years ago, environmental geotechnics has become an emergent area of study and research which borders on the traditional domains, with which the geo-technicians are confronted (soil and rock mechanics, engineering geology, natural and anthropogenic risk management). Dedicated to experimental approaches (in-situ investigations and tests, laboratory tests, small-scale model testing), the Symposium fits in with the geotechnical domains of environment and transport of soil pollutants. These proceedings report some progress of developments in measurement techniques and studies of transport of pollutants in saturated and unsaturated soils in order to improve our understanding of such phenomena within multiphase environments. Experimental investigations on decontamination and isolation methods for polluted soils are discussed. The intention is to assess the impact of in-situ and laboratory tests, as well as small-scale model testing, on engineering practice. One paper has been analyzed in INIS data base for its specific interest in nuclear industry.

  18. The Impact of Environmental Complexity and Team Training on Team Processes and Performance in Multi-Team Environments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cobb, Marshall

    1999-01-01

    This study examined how manipulating the level of environmental complexity and the type of team training given to subject volunteers impacted important team process behaviors and performance outcomes...

  19. Model Fusion Tool - the Open Environmental Modelling Platform Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, H.; Giles, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    The vision of an Open Environmental Modelling Platform - seamlessly linking geoscience data, concepts and models to aid decision making in times of environmental change. Governments and their executive agencies across the world are facing increasing pressure to make decisions about the management of resources in light of population growth and environmental change. In the UK for example, groundwater is becoming a scarce resource for large parts of its most densely populated areas. At the same time river and groundwater flooding resulting from high rainfall events are increasing in scale and frequency and sea level rise is threatening the defences of coastal cities. There is also a need for affordable housing, improved transport infrastructure and waste disposal as well as sources of renewable energy and sustainable food production. These challenges can only be resolved if solutions are based on sound scientific evidence. Although we have knowledge and understanding of many individual processes in the natural sciences it is clear that a single science discipline is unable to answer the questions and their inter-relationships. Modern science increasingly employs computer models to simulate the natural, economic and human system. Management and planning requires scenario modelling, forecasts and ‘predictions’. Although the outputs are often impressive in terms of apparent accuracy and visualisation, they are inherently not suited to simulate the response to feedbacks from other models of the earth system, such as the impact of human actions. Geological Survey Organisations (GSO) are increasingly employing advances in Information Technology to visualise and improve their understanding of geological systems. Instead of 2 dimensional paper maps and reports many GSOs now produce 3 dimensional geological framework models and groundwater flow models as their standard output. Additionally the British Geological Survey have developed standard routines to link geological

  20. The utility of Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.

    2010-01-01

    Intermediate-complexity models are models which describe the dynamics of the atmosphere and/or ocean in less detail than conventional General Circulation Models (GCMs). At the same time, they go beyond the approach taken by atmospheric Energy Balance Models (EBMs) or ocean box models by

  1. A Survey of Precipitation Data for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report explores the types of precipitation data available for environmental modeling. Precipitation is the main driver in the hydrological cycle and modelers use this information to understand water quality and water availability. Models use observed precipitation informatio...

  2. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  3. Narrowing the gap between network models and real complex systems

    OpenAIRE

    Viamontes Esquivel, Alcides

    2014-01-01

    Simple network models that focus only on graph topology or, at best, basic interactions are often insufficient to capture all the aspects of a dynamic complex system. In this thesis, I explore those limitations, and some concrete methods of resolving them. I argue that, in order to succeed at interpreting and influencing complex systems, we need to take into account  slightly more complex parts, interactions and information flows in our models.This thesis supports that affirmation with five a...

  4. A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

  5. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center--providing comprehensive earth science for complex societal issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, David G.; Wallace, Alan R.; Schneider, Jill L.

    2010-01-01

    Minerals in the environment and products manufactured from mineral materials are all around us and we use and come into contact with them every day. They impact our way of life and the health of all that lives. Minerals are critical to the Nation's economy and knowing where future mineral resources will come from is important for sustaining the Nation's economy and national security. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Resources Program (MRP) provides scientific information for objective resource assessments and unbiased research results on mineral resource potential, production and consumption statistics, as well as environmental consequences of mining. The MRP conducts this research to provide information needed for land planners and decisionmakers about where mineral commodities are known and suspected in the earth's crust and about the environmental consequences of extracting those commodities. As part of the MRP scientists of the Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center (WMERSC or 'Center' herein) coordinate the development of national, geologic, geochemical, geophysical, and mineral-resource databases and the migration of existing databases to standard models and formats that are available to both internal and external users. The unique expertise developed by Center scientists over many decades in response to mineral-resource-related issues is now in great demand to support applications such as public health research and remediation of environmental hazards that result from mining and mining-related activities. Western Mineral and Environmental Resources Science Center Results of WMERSC research provide timely and unbiased analyses of minerals and inorganic materials to (1) improve stewardship of public lands and resources; (2) support national and international economic and security policies; (3) sustain prosperity and improve our quality of life; and (4) protect and improve public health, safety, and environmental quality. The MRP

  6. What do we gain from simplicity versus complexity in species distribution models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merow, Cory; Smith, Matthew J.; Edwards, Thomas C.; Guisan, Antoine; McMahon, Sean M.; Normand, Signe; Thuiller, Wilfried; Wuest, Rafael O.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Elith, Jane

    2014-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to explain and predict species ranges and environmental niches. They are most commonly constructed by inferring species' occurrence–environment relationships using statistical and machine-learning methods. The variety of methods that can be used to construct SDMs (e.g. generalized linear/additive models, tree-based models, maximum entropy, etc.), and the variety of ways that such models can be implemented, permits substantial flexibility in SDM complexity. Building models with an appropriate amount of complexity for the study objectives is critical for robust inference. We characterize complexity as the shape of the inferred occurrence–environment relationships and the number of parameters used to describe them, and search for insights into whether additional complexity is informative or superfluous. By building ‘under fit’ models, having insufficient flexibility to describe observed occurrence–environment relationships, we risk misunderstanding the factors shaping species distributions. By building ‘over fit’ models, with excessive flexibility, we risk inadvertently ascribing pattern to noise or building opaque models. However, model selection can be challenging, especially when comparing models constructed under different modeling approaches. Here we argue for a more pragmatic approach: researchers should constrain the complexity of their models based on study objective, attributes of the data, and an understanding of how these interact with the underlying biological processes. We discuss guidelines for balancing under fitting with over fitting and consequently how complexity affects decisions made during model building. Although some generalities are possible, our discussion reflects differences in opinions that favor simpler versus more complex models. We conclude that combining insights from both simple and complex SDM building approaches best advances our knowledge of current and future species

  7. Uncertainty and Complexity in Mathematical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Susan O.; Sanders, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Modeling is an effective tool to help students access mathematical concepts. Finding a math teacher who has not drawn a fraction bar or pie chart on the board would be difficult, as would finding students who have not been asked to draw models and represent numbers in different ways. In this article, the authors will discuss: (1) the properties of…

  8. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  9. Linking Complexity and Sustainability Theories: Implications for Modeling Sustainability Transitions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camaren Peter

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we deploy a complexity theory as the foundation for integration of different theoretical approaches to sustainability and develop a rationale for a complexity-based framework for modeling transitions to sustainability. We propose a framework based on a comparison of complex systems’ properties that characterize the different theories that deal with transitions to sustainability. We argue that adopting a complexity theory based approach for modeling transitions requires going beyond deterministic frameworks; by adopting a probabilistic, integrative, inclusive and adaptive approach that can support transitions. We also illustrate how this complexity-based modeling framework can be implemented; i.e., how it can be used to select modeling techniques that address particular properties of complex systems that we need to understand in order to model transitions to sustainability. In doing so, we establish a complexity-based approach towards modeling sustainability transitions that caters for the broad range of complex systems’ properties that are required to model transitions to sustainability.

  10. Environmental versus demographic variability in stochastic predator–prey models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobramysl, U; Täuber, U C

    2013-01-01

    In contrast to the neutral population cycles of the deterministic mean-field Lotka–Volterra rate equations, including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator–prey interactions yields complex spatio-temporal structures associated with long-lived erratic population oscillations. Environmental variability in the form of quenched spatial randomness in the predation rates results in more localized activity patches. Our previous study showed that population fluctuations in rare favorable regions in turn cause a remarkable increase in the asymptotic densities of both predators and prey. Very intriguing features are found when variable interaction rates are affixed to individual particles rather than lattice sites. Stochastic dynamics with demographic variability in conjunction with inheritable predation efficiencies generate non-trivial time evolution for the predation rate distributions, yet with overall essentially neutral optimization. (paper)

  11. Mathematical modeling and optimization of complex structures

    CERN Document Server

    Repin, Sergey; Tuovinen, Tero

    2016-01-01

    This volume contains selected papers in three closely related areas: mathematical modeling in mechanics, numerical analysis, and optimization methods. The papers are based upon talks presented  on the International Conference for Mathematical Modeling and Optimization in Mechanics, held in Jyväskylä, Finland, March 6-7, 2014 dedicated to Prof. N. Banichuk on the occasion of his 70th birthday. The articles are written by well-known scientists working in computational mechanics and in optimization of complicated technical models. Also, the volume contains papers discussing the historical development, the state of the art, new ideas, and open problems arising in  modern continuum mechanics and applied optimization problems. Several papers are concerned with mathematical problems in numerical analysis, which are also closely related to important mechanical models. The main topics treated include:  * Computer simulation methods in mechanics, physics, and biology;  * Variational problems and methods; minimiz...

  12. Hierarchical Models of the Nearshore Complex System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Werner, Brad

    2004-01-01

    .... This grant was termination funding for the Werner group, specifically aimed at finishing up and publishing research related to synoptic imaging of near shore bathymetry, testing models for beach cusp...

  13. Complex models of nodal nuclear data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dufek, Jan

    2011-01-01

    During the core simulations, nuclear data are required at various nodal thermal-hydraulic and fuel burnup conditions. The nodal data are also partially affected by thermal-hydraulic and fuel burnup conditions in surrounding nodes as these change the neutron energy spectrum in the node. Therefore, the nodal data are functions of many parameters (state variables), and the more state variables are considered by the nodal data models the more accurate and flexible the models get. The existing table and polynomial regression models, however, cannot reflect the data dependences on many state variables. As for the table models, the number of mesh points (and necessary lattice calculations) grows exponentially with the number of variables. As for the polynomial regression models, the number of possible multivariate polynomials exceeds the limits of existing selection algorithms that should identify a few dozens of the most important polynomials. Also, the standard scheme of lattice calculations is not convenient for modelling the data dependences on various burnup conditions since it performs only a single or few burnup calculations at fixed nominal conditions. We suggest a new efficient algorithm for selecting the most important multivariate polynomials for the polynomial regression models so that dependences on many state variables can be considered. We also present a new scheme for lattice calculations where a large number of burnup histories are accomplished at varied nodal conditions. The number of lattice calculations being performed and the number of polynomials being analysed are controlled and minimised while building the nodal data models of a required accuracy. (author)

  14. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  15. Environmental surveillance for the INEL radioactive waste management complex. Annual report, 1979

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickham, L.E.; Janke, D.H.

    1980-12-01

    This document is the 1979 annual environmental surveillance report for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex (RWMC) of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. Included are tabulated data from and discussions about routine radiological monitoring of atmospheric, hydrologic, geologic, and biotic environments of the RWMC. Also included are discussions of selected nonradiological pollutants (e.g., sodium, etc.). It is concluded that (a) RWMC operations have not adversely affected local, existing environments; (b) environmental conditions within the Transuranic Storage Area are not corrosive enough to adversely affect transuranic waste storage containers, and (c) the addition of lakebed soil to pit, trench, and soil test plot areas has altered the moisture cycle characteristic of RWMC soil

  16. National Environmental Policy Act guidance: A model process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Angle, B.M.; Lockhart, V.A.T.; Sema, B.; Tuott, L.C.; Irving, J.S.

    1995-04-01

    The ''Model National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process'' includes: References to regulations, guidance documents, and plans; training programs; procedures; and computer databases. Legislative Acts and reference documents from Congress, US Department of Energy, and Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company provide the bases for conducting NEPA at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL). Lockheed Idaho Technologies Company (LITCO) NEPA / Permitting Department, the Contractor Environmental Organization (CEO) is responsible for developing and maintaining LITCO NEPA and permitting policies, guidance, and procedures. The CEO develops procedures to conduct environmental evaluations based on NEPA, Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations, and DOE guidance. This procedure includes preparation or support of environmental checklists, categorical exclusion determinations, environmental assessment determinations, environmental assessments, and environmental impact statements. In addition, the CEO uses this information to train personnel conducting environmental evaluations at the INEL. Streamlining these procedures fosters efficient use of resources, quality documents, and better decisions on proposed actions

  17. Health effects of environmental pollution in population living near industrial complex areas in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eom, Sang-Yong; Choi, Jonghyuk; Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Ji-Ae; Kim, Guen-Bae; Yu, Seung-Do; Kim, Yangho; Lim, Hyun-Sul; Son, Bu-Soon; Paek, Domyung; Kim, Yong-Dae; Kim, Heon; Ha, Mina; Kwon, Ho-Jang

    2018-01-01

    Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between environmental pollution and various health conditions in individuals residing in industrial complexes. To evaluate the effects of pollution from industrial complex on human health, we performed a pooled analysis of environmental epidemiologic monitoring data for residents living near national industrial complexes in Korea. The respiratory and allergic symptoms and the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, including cancer, were used as the outcome variables for health effects. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between exposure to pollution from industrial complexes and health conditions. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, occupational exposure, level of education, and body mass index, the residents near the industrial complexes were found to have more respiratory symptoms, such as cough (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.31) and sputum production (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.24), and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20). Among residents of the industrial complexes, the prevalence of acute eye disorders was approximately 40% higher (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.84) and the prevalence of lung and uterine cancer was 3.45 times and 1.88 times higher, respectively, than those among residents of the control area. This study showed that residents living in the vicinity of industrial complexes have a high risk of acute and chronic diseases including respiratory and allergic conditions. These results can be used as basic objective data for developing health management measures for individuals residing near industrial complexes.

  18. Health effects of environmental pollution in population living near industrial complex areas in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Eom

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Several epidemiological studies have reported an association between environmental pollution and various health conditions in individuals residing in industrial complexes. To evaluate the effects of pollution from industrial complex on human health, we performed a pooled analysis of environmental epidemiologic monitoring data for residents living near national industrial complexes in Korea. The respiratory and allergic symptoms and the prevalence of acute and chronic diseases, including cancer, were used as the outcome variables for health effects. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the relationship between exposure to pollution from industrial complexes and health conditions. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, occupational exposure, level of education, and body mass index, the residents near the industrial complexes were found to have more respiratory symptoms, such as cough (odds ratio [OR], 1.18; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06 to 1.31 and sputum production (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.24, and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (OR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.20. Among residents of the industrial complexes, the prevalence of acute eye disorders was approximately 40% higher (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.84 and the prevalence of lung and uterine cancer was 3.45 times and 1.88 times higher, respectively, than those among residents of the control area. This study showed that residents living in the vicinity of industrial complexes have a high risk of acute and chronic diseases including respiratory and allergic conditions. These results can be used as basic objective data for developing health management measures for individuals residing near industrial complexes.

  19. A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dermody, Brian J.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Stehfest, Elke; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Wassen, Martin J.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Dekker, Stefan C.

    2018-01-01

    We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  20. A framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. J. Dermody

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new framework for modelling the complexities of food and water security under globalisation. The framework sets out a method to capture regional and sectoral interdependencies and cross-scale feedbacks within the global food system that contribute to emergent water use patterns. The framework integrates aspects of existing models and approaches in the fields of hydrology and integrated assessment modelling. The core of the framework is a multi-agent network of city agents connected by infrastructural trade networks. Agents receive socio-economic and environmental constraint information from integrated assessment models and hydrological models respectively and simulate complex, socio-environmental dynamics that operate within those constraints. The emergent changes in food and water resources are aggregated and fed back to the original models with minimal modification of the structure of those models. It is our conviction that the framework presented can form the basis for a new wave of decision tools that capture complex socio-environmental change within our globalised world. In doing so they will contribute to illuminating pathways towards a sustainable future for humans, ecosystems and the water they share.

  1. Endocrine-Disrupting Chemicals and Oil and Natural Gas Operations: Potential Environmental Contamination and Recommendations to Assess Complex Environmental Mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassotis, Christopher D; Tillitt, Donald E; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A; Nagel, Susan C

    2016-03-01

    Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. Although these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals that are used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals. We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and antihormonal activities for chemicals used. We discuss the literature on a) surface and groundwater contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and b) potential human exposure, particularly in the context of the total hormonal and antihormonal activities present in surface and groundwater from natural and anthropogenic sources; we also discuss initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps. In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures. We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide information supporting the idea that using such a component will help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

  2. Endocrine-disrupting chemicals and oil and natural gas operations: Potential environmental contamination and recommendations to assess complex environmental mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassotis, Christopher D.; Tillitt, Donald E.; Lin, Chung-Ho; McElroy, Jane A.; Nagel, Susan C.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Hydraulic fracturing technologies, developed over the last 65 years, have only recently been combined with horizontal drilling to unlock oil and gas reserves previously deemed inaccessible. While these technologies have dramatically increased domestic oil and natural gas production, they have also raised concerns for the potential contamination of local water supplies with the approximately 1,000 chemicals used throughout the process, including many known or suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals.Objectives: We discuss the need for an endocrine component to health assessments for drilling-dense regions in the context of hormonal and anti-hormonal activities for chemicals used.Methods: We discuss the literature on 1) surface and ground water contamination by oil and gas extraction operations, and 2) potential human exposure, particularly in context of the total hormonal and anti-hormonal activities present in surface and ground water from natural and anthropogenic sources, with initial analytical results and critical knowledge gaps discussed.Discussion: In light of the potential for environmental release of oil and gas chemicals that can disrupt hormone receptor systems, we recommend methods for assessing complex hormonally active environmental mixtures.Conclusions: We describe a need for an endocrine-centric component for overall health assessments and provide supporting information that using this may help explain reported adverse health trends as well as help develop recommendations for environmental impact assessments and monitoring programs.

  3. Smart modeling and simulation for complex systems practice and theory

    CERN Document Server

    Ren, Fenghui; Zhang, Minjie; Ito, Takayuki; Tang, Xijin

    2015-01-01

    This book aims to provide a description of these new Artificial Intelligence technologies and approaches to the modeling and simulation of complex systems, as well as an overview of the latest scientific efforts in this field such as the platforms and/or the software tools for smart modeling and simulating complex systems. These tasks are difficult to accomplish using traditional computational approaches due to the complex relationships of components and distributed features of resources, as well as the dynamic work environments. In order to effectively model the complex systems, intelligent technologies such as multi-agent systems and smart grids are employed to model and simulate the complex systems in the areas of ecosystem, social and economic organization, web-based grid service, transportation systems, power systems and evacuation systems.

  4. The animal sensorimotor organization: a challenge for the environmental complexity thesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keijzer, Fred; Arnellos, Argyris

    2017-01-01

    Godfrey-Smith's environmental complexity thesis (ECT) is most often applied to multicellular animals and the complexity of their macroscopic environments to explain how cognition evolved. We think that the ECT may be less suited to explain the origins of the animal bodily organization, including this organization's potentiality for dealing with complex macroscopic environments. We argue that acquiring the fundamental sensorimotor features of the animal body may be better explained as a consequence of dealing with internal bodily-rather than environmental complexity. To press and elucidate this option, we develop the notion of an animal sensorimotor organization (ASMO) that derives from an internal coordination account for the evolution of early nervous systems. The ASMO notion is a reply to the question how a collection of single cells can become integrated such that the resulting multicellular organization becomes sensitive to and can manipulate macroscopic features of both the animal body and its environment. In this account, epithelial contractile tissues play the central role in the organization behind complex animal bodies. In this paper, we relate the ASMO concept to recent work on epithelia, which provides empirical evidence that supports central assumptions behind the ASMO notion. Second, we discuss to what extent the notion applies to basic animal architectures, exemplified by sponges and jellyfish. We conclude that the features exhibited by the ASMO are plausibly explained by internal constraints acting on and within this multicellular organization, providing a challenge for the role the ECT plays in this context.

  5. Environmental surveillance report for the INEL radioactive waste management complex. Annual report, 1976

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dolenc, M.R.; Janke, D.H.

    1977-05-01

    This report describes the environmental surveillance activities during 1976 at the two solid waste facilities of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The monitoring program encompasses periodic and random sampling of air, water, and soil within and adjacent to the Radioactive Waste Management Complex and SL-1 Burial Ground. It was found that operation of the Radioactive Waste Management Complex and SL-1 during 1976 had little radiological impact on the environment and radioactivity levels were shown to be within appropriate guidelines for worker safety

  6. Energy and complex industrial systems environmental emissions data reporting and acquisition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moskowitz, P.D.; Hamilton, L.D.

    1987-07-01

    The Joint International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), UNEP and WHO Project on Assessing and Managing Health and Environmental risks from Energy and Other Complex Technologies intends to complile emissions data for mportant energy systems and other complex technologies from a wide variety of countries. To facilitate data generation and compilation, this report: outlines data reporting protocols; identifies potential information sources; demonstrates how to estimate coefficients; presents some compiled US emission coefficients or criteria air pollutants for some energy process; and, compares national air emission standards for electricity generating plants in OECD member countries. 27 refs., 2 fis., 1 tabs

  7. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker [DESY, Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Quella, Thomas [Amsterdam Univ. (Netherlands). Inst. for Theoretical Physics; Saleur, Hubert [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Inst. de Physique Theorique; USC, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Physics Dept.

    2009-08-15

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle {theta}. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP{sup S-1} {sup vertical} {sup stroke} {sup S} model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  8. The sigma model on complex projective superspaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Candu, Constantin; Mitev, Vladimir; Schomerus, Volker; Quella, Thomas; Saleur, Hubert; USC, Los Angeles, CA

    2009-08-01

    The sigma model on projective superspaces CP S-1 vertical stroke S gives rise to a continuous family of interacting 2D conformal field theories which are parametrized by the curvature radius R and the theta angle θ. Our main goal is to determine the spectrum of the model, non-perturbatively as a function of both parameters. We succeed to do so for all open boundary conditions preserving the full global symmetry of the model. In string theory parlor, these correspond to volume filling branes that are equipped with a monopole line bundle and connection. The paper consists of two parts. In the first part, we approach the problem within the continuum formulation. Combining combinatorial arguments with perturbative studies and some simple free field calculations, we determine a closed formula for the partition function of the theory. This is then tested numerically in the second part. There we propose a spin chain regularization of the CP S-1 vertical stroke S model with open boundary conditions and use it to determine the spectrum at the conformal fixed point. The numerical results are in remarkable agreement with the continuum analysis. (orig.)

  9. A complex autoregressive model and application to monthly temperature forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Gu

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A complex autoregressive model was established based on the mathematic derivation of the least squares for the complex number domain which is referred to as the complex least squares. The model is different from the conventional way that the real number and the imaginary number are separately calculated. An application of this new model shows a better forecast than forecasts from other conventional statistical models, in predicting monthly temperature anomalies in July at 160 meteorological stations in mainland China. The conventional statistical models include an autoregressive model, where the real number and the imaginary number are separately disposed, an autoregressive model in the real number domain, and a persistence-forecast model.

  10. Understanding complex urban systems integrating multidisciplinary data in urban models

    CERN Document Server

    Gebetsroither-Geringer, Ernst; Atun, Funda; Werner, Liss

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the modeling and understanding of complex urban systems. This second volume of Understanding Complex Urban Systems focuses on the challenges of the modeling tools, concerning, e.g., the quality and quantity of data and the selection of an appropriate modeling approach. It is meant to support urban decision-makers—including municipal politicians, spatial planners, and citizen groups—in choosing an appropriate modeling approach for their particular modeling requirements. The contributors to this volume are from different disciplines, but all share the same goal: optimizing the representation of complex urban systems. They present and discuss a variety of approaches for dealing with data-availability problems and finding appropriate modeling approaches—and not only in terms of computer modeling. The selection of articles featured in this volume reflect a broad variety of new and established modeling approaches such as: - An argument for using Big Data methods in conjunction with Age...

  11. Cellular Models for Environmental Toxicant Biomarker Discovery

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Halverson, Kelly M; Lewsis, John A; Jackson, David A; Dennis, William; Brennan, Linda; Krakaner, Teresa

    2006-01-01

    ...) is the development of biomarkers of exposure, effect, and susceptibility. As exposure monitoring using environmental sampling equipment can be impractical and doesn't account for differences in individual responses, new methodologies must be sought...

  12. Department of Energy environmental management complex-wide integration using systems engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairbourn, P.

    1997-01-01

    A systems engineering approach was successfully used to recommend changes to environmental management activities across the DOE Complex. A team of technical experts and systems engineers developed alternatives that could save tax payers billions of dollars if the barriers are removed to allow complete implementation. The alternatives are technically-based and defensible, and are being worked through the stakeholder review process. The integration process and implementing project structure are both discussed

  13. Environmental surveillance for the INEL Radioactive-Waste-Management complex. Annual report 1981

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janke, D.H.; Zahn, T.P.

    1982-09-01

    The 1981 environmental surveillance report for the Radioactive Waste Management Complex of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory contains data and discussions about routine radiological monitoring of the atmospheric, hydrologic, and geologic environments of the RWMC. Additional discussions include results of routine monitoring of two surplus facilities, the Stationary Low-Power Reactor No. 1 Surplus Area and the Organic Moderated Reactor Experiment. Each area has produced localized effects on the environment, but containment is well within the INEL site boundary

  14. Geo-inspired model: Agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental management (AVNG of water tributaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Eduardo Millán Rojas

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Context: Management to care for the environment and the Earth (geo can be source of inspiration for developing models that allow addressing complexity issues; the objective of this research was to develop an additional aspect of the inspired models. The geoinspired model has two features, the first covering aspects related to environmental management and the behavior of natural resources, and the second has a component of spatial location associated with existing objects on the Earth's surface. Method: The approach developed in the research is descriptive and its main objective is the representation or characterization of a case study within a particular context. Results: The result was the design of a model to emulate the natural behavior of the water tributaries of the Amazon foothills, in order to extend the application of the inspired models and allow the use of elements such as geo-referencing and environmental management. The proposed geoinspired model is called “natural vectors agents inspired in environmental management”. Conclusions: The agents vectors naturals inspired by the environmental are polyform elements that can assume the behavior of environmental entities, which makes it possible to achieve progress in other fields of environmental management (use of soil, climate, flora, fauna, and link environmental issues with the structure of the proposed model.

  15. Fluid flow modeling in complex areas*, **

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Poullet Pascal

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We show first results of 3D simulation of sea currents in a realistic context. We use the full Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible viscous fluid. The problem is solved using a second order incremental projection method associated with the finite volume of the staggered (MAC scheme for the spatial discretization. After validation on classical cases, it is used in a numerical simulation of the Pointe à Pitre harbour area. The use of the fictious domain method permits us to take into account the complexity of bathymetric data and allows us to work with regular meshes and thus preserves the efficiency essential for a 3D code. Dans cette étude, nous présentons les premiers résultats de simulation d’un écoulement d’un fluide incompressible visqueux dans un contexte environnemental réel. L’approche utilisée utilise une méthode de domaines fictifs pour une prise en compte d’un domaine physique tridimensionnel très irrégulier. Le schéma numérique combine un schéma de projection incrémentale et des volumes finis utilisant des volumes de contrôle adaptés à un maillage décalé. Les tests de validation sont menés pour les cas tests de la cavité double entraînée ainsi que l’écoulement dans un canal avec un obstacle placé de manière asymmétrique.

  16. Advanced aviation environmental modeling tools to inform policymakers

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-19

    Aviation environmental models which conform to international guidance have advanced : over the past several decades. Enhancements to algorithms and databases have increasingly : shown these models to compare well with gold standard measured data. The...

  17. Modelling consumers' preferences for Novel Protein Foods and environmental quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, X.; Ierland, van E.C.

    2005-01-01

    We develop a theoretical Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model that explicitly includes the environmental input in production functions and the consumers' preferences for environmental quality in utility functions. We empirically apply the model to provide some insights into the effects of the

  18. EASETECH – A LCA model for assessment of environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Anders; Baumeister, Hubert; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    EASETECH is a new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies developed in collaboration between DTU Environment and DTU Compute. EASETECH is based on experience gained in the field of waste management modelling over the last decade and applies the same concepts to systems...

  19. Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report, “Data Sources Available for Modeling Environmental Exposures in Older Adults,” focuses on information sources and data available for modeling environmental exposures in the older U.S. population, defined here to be people 60 years and older, with an emphasis on those...

  20. Cumulative complexity: a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity can improve research and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shippee, Nathan D; Shah, Nilay D; May, Carl R; Mair, Frances S; Montori, Victor M

    2012-10-01

    To design a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity with practical applicability to analytic design and clinical practice. Existing literature on patient complexity has mainly identified its components descriptively and in isolation, lacking clarity as to their combined functions in disrupting care or to how complexity changes over time. The authors developed a cumulative complexity model, which integrates existing literature and emphasizes how clinical and social factors accumulate and interact to complicate patient care. A narrative literature review is used to explicate the model. The model emphasizes a core, patient-level mechanism whereby complicating factors impact care and outcomes: the balance between patient workload of demands and patient capacity to address demands. Workload encompasses the demands on the patient's time and energy, including demands of treatment, self-care, and life in general. Capacity concerns ability to handle work (e.g., functional morbidity, financial/social resources, literacy). Workload-capacity imbalances comprise the mechanism driving patient complexity. Treatment and illness burdens serve as feedback loops, linking negative outcomes to further imbalances, such that complexity may accumulate over time. With its components largely supported by existing literature, the model has implications for analytic design, clinical epidemiology, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Passengers, Crowding and Complexity : Models for passenger oriented public transport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.C. Bouman (Paul)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractPassengers, Crowding and Complexity was written as part of the Complexity in Public Transport (ComPuTr) project funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). This thesis studies in three parts how microscopic data can be used in models that have the potential

  2. Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1996-01-01

    A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

  3. X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy Identifies Calcium-Uranyl-Carbonate Complexes at Environmental Concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Shelly D.; Kemner, Kenneth M.; Brooks, Scott C.

    2007-01-01

    Current research on bioremediation of uranium-contaminated groundwater focuses on supplying indigenous metal-reducing bacteria with the appropriate metabolic requirements to induce microbiological reduction of soluble uranium(VI) to poorly soluble uranium(IV). Recent studies of uranium(VI) bioreduction in the presence of environmentally relevant levels of calcium revealed limited and slowed uranium(VI) reduction and the formation of a Ca-UO2-CO3 complex. However, the stoichiometry of the complex is poorly defined and may be complicated by the presence of a Na-UO2-CO3 complex. Such a complex might exist even at high calcium concentrations, as some UO2-CO3 complexes will still be present. The number of calcium and/or sodium atoms coordinated to a uranyl carbonate complex will determine the net charge of the complex. Such a change in aqueous speciation of uranium(VI) in calcareous groundwater may affect the fate and transport properties of uranium. In this paper, we present the results from X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) measurements of a series of solutions containing 50 lM uranium(VI) and 30 mM sodium bicarbonate, with various calcium concentrations of 0-5 mM. Use of the data series reduces the uncertainty in the number of calcium atoms bound to the UO2-CO3 complex to approximately 0.6 and enables spectroscopic identification of the Na-UO2-CO3 complex. At nearly neutral pH values, the numbers of sodium and calcium atoms bound to the uranyl triscarbonate species are found to depend on the calcium concentration, as predicted by speciation calculations

  4. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Hitesh B

    2018-01-01

    There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  5. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hitesh B. Mistry

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model Bnet was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the Bnet model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  6. Environmental Screening for the Scedosporium apiospermum Species Complex in Public Parks in Bangkok, Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natthanej Luplertlop

    Full Text Available The Scedosporium apiospermum species complex, comprising filamentous fungal species S. apiospermum sensu stricto, S. boydii, S. aurantiacum, S. dehoogii and S. minutispora, are important pathogens that cause a wide variety of infections. Although some species (S. boydii and S. apiospermum have been isolated from patients in Thailand, no environmental surveys of these fungi have been performed in Thailand or surrounding countries. In this study, we isolated and identified species of these fungi from 68 soil and 16 water samples randomly collected from 10 parks in Bangkok. After filtration and subsequent inoculation of samples on Scedo-Select III medium, colony morphological examinations and microscopic observations were performed. Scedosporium species were isolated from soil in 8 of the 10 parks, but were only detected in one water sample. Colony morphologies of isolates from 41 of 68 soil samples (60.29% and 1 of 15 water samples (6.67% were consistent with that of the S. apiospermum species complex. Each morphological type was selected for species identification based on DNA sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of the β-tubulin gene. Three species of the S. apiospermum species complex were identified: S. apiospermum (71 isolates, S. aurantiacum (6 isolates and S. dehoogii (5 isolates. In addition, 16 sequences could not be assigned to an exact Scedosporium species. According to our environmental survey, the S. apiospermum species complex is widespread in soil in Bangkok, Thailand.

  7. A mathematical model for environmental risk assessment in manufacturing industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何莉萍; 徐盛明; 陈大川; 党创寅

    2002-01-01

    Environmental conscious manufacturing has become an important issue in industry because of market pressure and environmental regulations. An environmental risk assessment model was developed based on the network analytic method and fuzzy set theory. The "interval analysis method" was applied to deal with the on-site monitoring data as basic information for assessment. In addition, the fuzzy set theory was employed to allow uncertain, interactive and dynamic information to be effectively incorporated into the environmental risk assessment. This model is a simple, practical and effective tool for evaluating the environmental risk of manufacturing industry and for analyzing the relative impacts of emission wastes, which are hazardous to both human and ecosystem health. Furthermore, the model is considered useful for design engineers and decision-maker to design and select processes when the costs, environmental impacts and performances of a product are taken into consideration.

  8. Environmental Parametric Cost Model in Oil and Gas EPC Contracts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madjid Abbaspour

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at identifying the parameters that govern the environmental costs in oil and gas projects. An initial conceptual model was proposed. Next, the costs of environmental management work packages were estimated, separately and were applied in project control tools (WBS/CBS. Then, an environmental parametric cost model was designed to determine the environmental costs and relevant weighting factors. The suggested model can be considered as an innovative approach to designate the environmental indicators in oil and gas projects. The validity of variables was investigated based on Delphi method. The results indicated that the project environmental management’s weighting factor is 0.87% of total project’s weighting factor.

  9. A Knowledge-Based Representation Scheme for Environmental Science Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Richard M.; Dungan, Jennifer L.; Lum, Henry, Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    One of the primary methods available for studying environmental phenomena is the construction and analysis of computational models. We have been studying how artificial intelligence techniques can be applied to assist in the development and use of environmental science models within the context of NASA-sponsored activities. We have identified several high-utility areas as potential targets for research and development: model development; data visualization, analysis, and interpretation; model publishing and reuse, training and education; and framing, posing, and answering questions. Central to progress on any of the above areas is a representation for environmental models that contains a great deal more information than is present in a traditional software implementation. In particular, a traditional software implementation is devoid of any semantic information that connects the code with the environmental context that forms the background for the modeling activity. Before we can build AI systems to assist in model development and usage, we must develop a representation for environmental models that adequately describes a model's semantics and explicitly represents the relationship between the code and the modeling task at hand. We have developed one such representation in conjunction with our work on the SIGMA (Scientists' Intelligent Graphical Modeling Assistant) environment. The key feature of the representation is that it provides a semantic grounding for the symbols in a set of modeling equations by linking those symbols to an explicit representation of the underlying environmental scenario.

  10. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kelly, Rebecca A.; Jakeman, Anthony J.; Barreteau, Olivier; Borsuk, Mark E.; El-Sawah, Sondoss; Hamilton, Serena H.; Henriksen, Hans Jorgen; Kuikka, Sakari; Maier, Holger R.; Rizzoli, Andrea Emilio; van Delden, H.; Voinov, A.

    2013-01-01

    The design and implementation of effective environmental policies need to be informed by a holistic understanding of the system processes (biophysical, social and economic), their complex interactions, and how they respond to various changes. Models, integrating different system processes into a

  11. Public involvement in environmental, safety and health issues at the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, Laura L.; Morgan, Robert P.

    1992-01-01

    The state of public involvement in environmental, safety, and health issues at the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex is assessed through identification of existing opportunities for public involvement and through interviews with representatives of ten local citizen groups active in these issues at weapons facilities in their communities. A framework for analyzing existing means of public involvement is developed. On the whole, opportunities for public involvement are inadequate. Provisions for public involvement are lacking in several key stages of the decision-making process. Consequently, adversarial means of public involvement have generally been more effective than cooperative means in motivating change in the Weapons Complex. Citizen advisory boards, both on the local and national level, may provide a means of improving public involvement in Weapons Complex issues. (author)

  12. Modeling Air-Quality in Complex Terrain Using Mesoscale and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Air-quality in a complex terrain (Colorado-River-Valley/Grand-Canyon Area, Southwest U.S.) is modeled using a higher-order closure mesoscale model and a higher-order closure dispersion model. Non-reactive tracers have been released in the Colorado-River valley, during winter and summer 1992, to study the ...

  13. Surface-complexation models for sorption onto heterogeneous surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, K.B.

    1997-10-01

    This report provides a description of the discrete-logK spectrum model, together with a description of its derivation, and of its place in the larger context of surface-complexation modelling. The tools necessary to apply the discrete-logK spectrum model are discussed, and background information appropriate to this discussion is supplied as appendices. (author)

  14. MODEL OF IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEM BY MULTI - SOFTWARE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Jovanovic

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is based on doctoral dissertation which is oriented on improving environmental management system using multi - software. In this doctoral dissertation will be used key results of master thesis which is oriented on quantification environmental aspects and impacts by artificial neural network in organizations. This paper recommend improving environmental management system in organization using Balanced scorecard model and MCDM method - AHP (Analytic hierarchy process based on group decision. BSC would be spread with elements of Environmental management system and used in area of strategic management system in organization and AHP would be used in area of checking results getting by quantification environmental aspects and impacts.

  15. Business model innovation in electricity supply markets: The role of complex value in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Stephen; Roelich, Katy

    2016-01-01

    This research investigates the new opportunities that business model innovations are creating in electricity supply markets at the sub-national scale. These local supply business models can offer significant benefits to the electricity system, but also generate economic, social, and environmental values that are not well accounted for in current policy or regulation. This paper uses the UK electricity supply market to investigate new business models which rely on more complex value propositions than the incumbent utility model. Nine archetypal local supply business models are identified and their value propositions, value capture methods, and barriers to market entry are analysed. This analysis defines 'complex value' as a key concept in understanding business model innovation in the energy sector. The process of complex value identification poses a challenge to energy researchers, commercial firms and policymakers in liberalised markets; to investigate the opportunities for system efficiency and diverse outcomes that new supplier business models can offer to the electricity system. - Highlights: •Business models of energy supply markets shape energy transitions. •The British system misses four opportunities of local electricity supply. •Nine new business model archetypes of local supply are analysed. •New electricity business models have complex value propositions. •A process for policy response to business model innovation is presented.

  16. On spin and matrix models in the complex plane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damgaard, P.H.; Heller, U.M.

    1993-01-01

    We describe various aspects of statistical mechanics defined in the complex temperature or coupling-constant plane. Using exactly solvable models, we analyse such aspects as renormalization group flows in the complex plane, the distribution of partition function zeros, and the question of new coupling-constant symmetries of complex-plane spin models. The double-scaling form of matrix models is shown to be exactly equivalent to finite-size scaling of two-dimensional spin systems. This is used to show that the string susceptibility exponents derived from matrix models can be obtained numerically with very high accuracy from the scaling of finite-N partition function zeros in the complex plane. (orig.)

  17. A Framework for Modeling and Analyzing Complex Distributed Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lynch, Nancy A; Shvartsman, Alex Allister

    2005-01-01

    Report developed under STTR contract for topic AF04-T023. This Phase I project developed a modeling language and laid a foundation for computational support tools for specifying, analyzing, and verifying complex distributed system designs...

  18. Modelling the self-organization and collapse of complex networks

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modelling the self-organization and collapse of complex networks. Sanjay Jain Department of Physics and Astrophysics, University of Delhi Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Bangalore Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico.

  19. Public communication on times of environmental crisis. The opening of San Rafael 's uranium complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvino, Carlos; Cisneros, Martin

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Argentina has had a lot of cultural changes in the last few years. An environmental movement has gathered and is trying to stop the opening of the Sierra Pintada uranium complex, near the city of San Rafael, in the south of Mendoza province. Since 2005, several 'groundless information' have been published in the local media about the dangers of this re-opening. These news exaggerate the properties of radon gas, claiming that it will reach San Rafael city (20 miles from the complex), rising radiological risk among the population, etc. This scene shows a 'non-real' picture of the regulatory activities that the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (ARN), a government agency that regulates nuclear facilities in Argentina, is really and systematically accomplishing. In this situation, the board of Directors of ARN decided to entrust a full analysis of the environmental issue in the area. The Office of Press and Communication implemented a local communication plan, using a Strategic and Systemic tool kit. The period to be analyzed is from second semester 2005 to February 2007. A little bit of history: the San Rafael Complex started in September 20 of 1979. It belongs to the National Commission of Atomic Energy (CNEA), a government agency. Until its temporary suspension in 1995 for international market reasons (uranium price was U$S 10 / pound), almost 2 million tons of uranium were processed. Besides its temporary suspension, the ARN has been constantly monitoring this particular former complex. In the year 2001, CNEA notices that the uranium price starts to rise and entrust National Technology University, Avellaneda Branch, to accomplish an Environmental Impact Report, according to the argentine law 25.585. Due especially to the rising of uranium price, (actually, the uranium price is approximately U$S 200) the national government determined to restart the extraction of the mineral again. By the year 2004, with the results of the Environmental Impact report, CNEA

  20. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  1. Algebraic computability and enumeration models recursion theory and descriptive complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Nourani, Cyrus F

    2016-01-01

    This book, Algebraic Computability and Enumeration Models: Recursion Theory and Descriptive Complexity, presents new techniques with functorial models to address important areas on pure mathematics and computability theory from the algebraic viewpoint. The reader is first introduced to categories and functorial models, with Kleene algebra examples for languages. Functorial models for Peano arithmetic are described toward important computational complexity areas on a Hilbert program, leading to computability with initial models. Infinite language categories are also introduced to explain descriptive complexity with recursive computability with admissible sets and urelements. Algebraic and categorical realizability is staged on several levels, addressing new computability questions with omitting types realizably. Further applications to computing with ultrafilters on sets and Turing degree computability are examined. Functorial models computability is presented with algebraic trees realizing intuitionistic type...

  2. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  3. Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

  4. Coping with Complexity Model Reduction and Data Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Gorban, Alexander N

    2011-01-01

    This volume contains the extended version of selected talks given at the international research workshop 'Coping with Complexity: Model Reduction and Data Analysis', Ambleside, UK, August 31 - September 4, 2009. This book is deliberately broad in scope and aims at promoting new ideas and methodological perspectives. The topics of the chapters range from theoretical analysis of complex and multiscale mathematical models to applications in e.g., fluid dynamics and chemical kinetics.

  5. Mathematical Models to Determine Stable Behavior of Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumin, V. I.; Dushkin, A. V.; Smolentseva, T. E.

    2018-05-01

    The paper analyzes a possibility to predict functioning of a complex dynamic system with a significant amount of circulating information and a large number of random factors impacting its functioning. Functioning of the complex dynamic system is described as a chaotic state, self-organized criticality and bifurcation. This problem may be resolved by modeling such systems as dynamic ones, without applying stochastic models and taking into account strange attractors.

  6. A review of mathematical models in economic environmental problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nahorski, Z.; Ravn, H.F.

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents a review of mathematical models used,in economic analysis of environmental problems. This area of research combines macroeconomic models of growth, as dependent on capital, labour, resources, etc., with environmental models describing such phenomena like natural resources...... exhaustion or pollution accumulation and degradation. In simpler cases the models can be treated analytically and the utility function can be optimized using, e.g., such tools as the maximum principle. In more complicated cases calculation of the optimal environmental policies requires a computer solution....

  7. Environmental Modeling and Bayesian Analysis for Assessing Human Health Impacts from Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockton, T.; Black, P.; Tauxe, J.; Catlett, K.

    2004-12-01

    Bayesian decision analysis provides a unified framework for coherent decision-making. Two key components of Bayesian decision analysis are probability distributions and utility functions. Calculating posterior distributions and performing decision analysis can be computationally challenging, especially for complex environmental models. In addition, probability distributions and utility functions for environmental models must be specified through expert elicitation, stakeholder consensus, or data collection, all of which have their own set of technical and political challenges. Nevertheless, a grand appeal of the Bayesian approach for environmental decision- making is the explicit treatment of uncertainty, including expert judgment. The impact of expert judgment on the environmental decision process, though integral, goes largely unassessed. Regulations and orders of the Environmental Protection Agency, Department Of Energy, and Nuclear Regulatory Agency orders require assessing the impact on human health of radioactive waste contamination over periods of up to ten thousand years. Towards this end complex environmental simulation models are used to assess "risk" to human and ecological health from migration of radioactive waste. As the computational burden of environmental modeling is continually reduced probabilistic process modeling using Monte Carlo simulation is becoming routinely used to propagate uncertainty from model inputs through model predictions. The utility of a Bayesian approach to environmental decision-making is discussed within the context of a buried radioactive waste example. This example highlights the desirability and difficulties of merging the cost of monitoring, the cost of the decision analysis, the cost and viability of clean up, and the probability of human health impacts within a rigorous decision framework.

  8. Modeling and Simulation of Multi-scale Environmental Systems with Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mostafa eHerajy

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting and studying the dynamics and properties of environmental systems necessitates the construction and simulation of mathematical models entailing different levels of complexities. Such type of computational experiments often require the combination of discrete and continuous variables as well as processes operating at different time scales. Furthermore, the iterative steps of constructing and analyzing environmental models might involve researchers with different background. Hybrid Petri nets may contribute in overcoming such challenges as they facilitate the implementation of systems integrating discrete and continuous dynamics. Additionally, the visual depiction of model components will inevitably help to bridge the gap between scientists with distinct expertise working on the same problem. Thus, modeling environmental systems with hybrid Petri nets enables the construction of complex processes while keeping the models comprehensible for researchers working on the same project with significantly divergent education path. In this paper we propose the utilization of a special class of hybrid Petri nets, Generalized Hybrid Petri Nets (GHPN, to model and simulate environmental systems exposing processes interacting at different time-scales. GHPN integrate stochastic and deterministic semantics as well as other types of special basic events. Moreover, a case study is presented to illustrate the use of GHPN in constructing and simulating multi-timescale environmental scenarios.

  9. Developing Seventh Grade Students' Understanding of Complex Environmental Problems with Systems Tools and Representations: a Quasi-experimental Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doganca Kucuk, Zerrin; Saysel, Ali Kerem

    2017-03-01

    A systems-based classroom intervention on environmental education was designed for seventh grade students; the results were evaluated to see its impact on the development of systems thinking skills and standard science achievement and whether the systems approach is a more effective way to teach environmental issues that are dynamic and complex. A quasi-experimental methodology was used to compare performances of the participants in various dimensions, including systems thinking skills, competence in dynamic environmental problem solving and success in science achievement tests. The same pre-, post- and delayed tests were used with both the comparison and experimental groups in the same public middle school in Istanbul. Classroom activities designed for the comparison group (N = 20) followed the directives of the Science and Technology Curriculum, while the experimental group (N = 22) covered the same subject matter through activities benefiting from systems tools and representations such as behaviour over time graphs, causal loop diagrams, stock-flow structures and hands-on dynamic modelling. After a one-month systems-based instruction, the experimental group demonstrated significantly better systems thinking and dynamic environmental problem solving skills. Achievement in dynamic problem solving was found to be relatively stable over time. However, standard science achievement did not improve at all. This paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of the results, the weaknesses of the curriculum and educational implications.

  10. Global Sensitivity Analysis of Environmental Models: Convergence, Robustness and Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarrazin, Fanny; Pianosi, Francesca; Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Global Sensitivity Analysis aims to characterize the impact that variations in model input factors (e.g. the parameters) have on the model output (e.g. simulated streamflow). In sampling-based Global Sensitivity Analysis, the sample size has to be chosen carefully in order to obtain reliable sensitivity estimates while spending computational resources efficiently. Furthermore, insensitive parameters are typically identified through the definition of a screening threshold: the theoretical value of their sensitivity index is zero but in a sampling-base framework they regularly take non-zero values. There is little guidance available for these two steps in environmental modelling though. The objective of the present study is to support modellers in making appropriate choices, regarding both sample size and screening threshold, so that a robust sensitivity analysis can be implemented. We performed sensitivity analysis for the parameters of three hydrological models with increasing level of complexity (Hymod, HBV and SWAT), and tested three widely used sensitivity analysis methods (Elementary Effect Test or method of Morris, Regional Sensitivity Analysis, and Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis). We defined criteria based on a bootstrap approach to assess three different types of convergence: the convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices, of the ranking (the ordering among the parameters) and of the screening (the identification of the insensitive parameters). We investigated the screening threshold through the definition of a validation procedure. The results showed that full convergence of the value of the sensitivity indices is not necessarily needed to rank or to screen the model input factors. Furthermore, typical values of the sample sizes that are reported in the literature can be well below the sample sizes that actually ensure convergence of ranking and screening.

  11. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  12. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

    2009-01-01

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

  13. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  14. A marketing mix model for a complex and turbulent environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. B. Mason

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper is based on the proposition that the choice of marketing tactics is determined, or at least significantly influenced, by the nature of the company’s external environment. It aims to illustrate the type of marketing mix tactics that are suggested for a complex and turbulent environment when marketing and the environment are viewed through a chaos and complexity theory lens. Design/Methodology/Approach: Since chaos and complexity theories are proposed as a good means of understanding the dynamics of complex and turbulent markets, a comprehensive review and analysis of literature on the marketing mix and marketing tactics from a chaos and complexity viewpoint was conducted. From this literature review, a marketing mix model was conceptualised. Findings: A marketing mix model considered appropriate for success in complex and turbulent environments was developed. In such environments, the literature suggests destabilising marketing activities are more effective, whereas stabilising type activities are more effective in simple, stable environments. Therefore the model proposes predominantly destabilising type tactics as appropriate for a complex and turbulent environment such as is currently being experienced in South Africa. Implications: This paper is of benefit to marketers by emphasising a new way to consider the future marketing activities of their companies. How this model can assist marketers and suggestions for research to develop and apply this model are provided. It is hoped that the model suggested will form the basis of empirical research to test its applicability in the turbulent South African environment. Originality/Value: Since businesses and markets are complex adaptive systems, using complexity theory to understand how to cope in complex, turbulent environments is necessary, but has not been widely researched. In fact, most chaos and complexity theory work in marketing has concentrated on marketing strategy, with

  15. Considerations on the modelling of environmental radiocarbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, E.M.; McCartney, M.

    1991-01-01

    Modelling radionuclide transfer within the natural environment involves three general steps: model formulation, its fitting using appropriate experimental data and model validation. The last process typically involves a sensitivity analysis and is used to modify model formulation and to direct future experimental effort. A wide variety of models exists appropriate to a number of different applications. Recently, attention has been directed to the development of principles for establishing local, regional and global upper bounds to doses. Here important considerations in model choice are the spatial detail required within the model, the links between models of differing resolution and the availability of suitable experimental data. We illustrate the model-building stages and discuss the above considerations in transfer modelling using radiocarbon which is produced and released as part of the nuclear fuel cycle. Its long half life of 5730 years, its mobility in the environment and its incorporation into man via the food chain make it of some considerable radiological significance. We consider local modelling of 14 C transfer using a Gaussian plume model, while its global dispersal is modelled using a large globally-averaged compartmental model. The global analysis is used to make short term predictions of 14 C specific activities to 2050 and longer-term predictions over a period of 10,000 years. We discuss the validation of these models and attempt to quantify the sources and magnitudes of the uncertainties in the model predictions. (26 refs., 2 figs.)

  16. The use of models to assess environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustafson, P.F.

    1978-01-01

    Environmental impacts will include the effects on man as well as on other major segments of the natural or indigenous ecosystems. In their present state of development, the models used for environmental impact analysis give at least a semiquantitative estimate of the magnitude of such impacts. The methods used in the development of models are given, and their strengths and weaknesses are described. The relationship between predictive, before-the-fact models, and monitoring programs conducted during facility operation are also discussed

  17. The application of DEA model in enterprise environmental performance auditing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, F.; Zhu, L. Y.; Zhang, J. D.; Liu, C. Y.; Qu, Z. G.; Xiao, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    As a part of society, enterprises have an inescapable responsibility for environmental protection and governance. This article discusses the feasibility and necessity of enterprises environmental performance auditing and uses DEA model calculate the environmental performance of Haier for example. The most of reference data are selected and sorted from Haier’s environmental reportspublished in 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2015, and some of the data from some published articles and fieldwork. All the calculation results are calculated by DEAP software andhave a high credibility. The analysis results of this article can give corporate managements an idea about using environmental performance auditing to adjust their corporate environmental investments capital quota and change their company’s environmental strategies.

  18. Generalized complex geometry, generalized branes and the Hitchin sigma model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zucchini, Roberto

    2005-01-01

    Hitchin's generalized complex geometry has been shown to be relevant in compactifications of superstring theory with fluxes and is expected to lead to a deeper understanding of mirror symmetry. Gualtieri's notion of generalized complex submanifold seems to be a natural candidate for the description of branes in this context. Recently, we introduced a Batalin-Vilkovisky field theoretic realization of generalized complex geometry, the Hitchin sigma model, extending the well known Poisson sigma model. In this paper, exploiting Gualtieri's formalism, we incorporate branes into the model. A detailed study of the boundary conditions obeyed by the world sheet fields is provided. Finally, it is found that, when branes are present, the classical Batalin-Vilkovisky cohomology contains an extra sector that is related non trivially to a novel cohomology associated with the branes as generalized complex submanifolds. (author)

  19. Reassessing Geophysical Models of the Bushveld Complex in 3D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, J.; Webb, S. J.; Finn, C.

    2012-12-01

    Conceptual geophysical models of the Bushveld Igneous Complex show three possible geometries for its mafic component: 1) Separate intrusions with vertical feeders for the eastern and western lobes (Cousins, 1959) 2) Separate dipping sheets for the two lobes (Du Plessis and Kleywegt, 1987) 3) A single saucer-shaped unit connected at depth in the central part between the two lobes (Cawthorn et al, 1998) Model three incorporates isostatic adjustment of the crust in response to the weight of the dense mafic material. The model was corroborated by results of a broadband seismic array over southern Africa, known as the Southern African Seismic Experiment (SASE) (Nguuri, et al, 2001; Webb et al, 2004). This new information about the crustal thickness only became available in the last decade and could not be considered in the earlier models. Nevertheless, there is still on-going debate as to which model is correct. All of the models published up to now have been done in 2 or 2.5 dimensions. This is not well suited to modelling the complex geometry of the Bushveld intrusion. 3D modelling takes into account effects of variations in geometry and geophysical properties of lithologies in a full three dimensional sense and therefore affects the shape and amplitude of calculated fields. The main question is how the new knowledge of the increased crustal thickness, as well as the complexity of the Bushveld Complex, will impact on the gravity fields calculated for the existing conceptual models, when modelling in 3D. The three published geophysical models were remodelled using full 3Dl potential field modelling software, and including crustal thickness obtained from the SASE. The aim was not to construct very detailed models, but to test the existing conceptual models in an equally conceptual way. Firstly a specific 2D model was recreated in 3D, without crustal thickening, to establish the difference between 2D and 3D results. Then the thicker crust was added. Including the less

  20. A model for organizing and analyzing integration of environmental concerns in product design and re-design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Michael Søgaard

    2014-01-01

    Based on examples from research and innovation within nanotechnology, housing, bioenergy, and clothing the complexity of environmental innovation is discussed. A model for a more holistic approach to environmental innovation, which can be used both as part of innovation processes and for analyses...

  1. DEACTIVATION AND DECOMMISSIONING ENVIRONMENTAL STRATEGY FOR THE PLUTONIUM FINISHING PLANT COMPLEX, HANFORD NUCLEAR RESERVATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopkins, A.M.; Heineman, R.; Norton, S.; Miller, M.; Oates, L.

    2003-01-01

    Maintaining compliance with environmental regulatory requirements is a significant priority in successful completion of the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Nuclear Material Stabilization (NMS) Project. To ensure regulatory compliance throughout the deactivation and decommissioning of the PFP complex, an environmental regulatory strategy was developed. The overall goal of this strategy is to comply with all applicable environmental laws and regulations and/or compliance agreements during PFP stabilization, deactivation, and eventual dismantlement. Significant environmental drivers for the PFP Nuclear Material Stabilization Project include the Tri-Party Agreement; the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 (RCRA); the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA); the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA); the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA); the Clean Air Act (CAA), and the Clean Water Act (CWA). Recent TPA negotiation s with Ecology and EPA have resulted in milestones that support the use of CERCLA as the primary statutory framework for decommissioning PFP. Milestones have been negotiated to support the preparation of Engineering Evaluations/Cost Analyses for decommissioning major PFP buildings. Specifically, CERCLA EE/CA(s) are anticipated for the following scopes of work: Settling Tank 241-Z-361, the 232-Z Incinerator, , the process facilities (eg, 234-5Z, 242, 236) and the process facility support buildings. These CERCLA EE/CA(s) are for the purpose of analyzing the appropriateness of the slab-on-grade endpoint Additionally, agreement was reached on performing an evaluation of actions necessary to address below-grade structures or other structures remaining after completion of the decommissioning of PFP. Remaining CERCLA actions will be integrated with other Central Plateau activities at the Hanford site

  2. Online Higher Education Instruction to Foster Critical Thinking When Assessing Environmental Issues - the Brownfield Action Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Peter; Liddicoat, Joseph; Dittrick, Diane; Maenza-Gmelch, Terryanne; Kelsey, Ryan

    2013-04-01

    According to the Environmental Protection Agency, there are presently over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly into the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part online for more than a decade in environmental science courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies, conduct environmental site assessment investigations, and work collaboratively to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue or crisis.

  3. Environmental Management Model for Road Maintenance Operation Involving Community Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triyono, A. R. H.; Setyawan, A.; Sobriyah; Setiono, P.

    2017-07-01

    Public expectations of Central Java, which is very high on demand fulfillment, especially road infrastructure as outlined in the number of complaints and community expectations tweeter, Short Mail Massage (SMS), e-mail and public reports from various media, Highways Department of Central Java province requires development model of environmental management in the implementation of a routine way by involving the community in order to fulfill the conditions of a representative, may serve road users safely and comfortably. This study used survey method with SEM analysis and SWOT with Latent Independent Variable (X), namely; Public Participation in the regulation, development, construction and supervision of road (PSM); Public behavior in the utilization of the road (PMJ) Provincial Road Service (PJP); Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP); Integrated Management System (SMT) and latent dependent variable (Y) routine maintenance of the provincial road that is integrated with the environmental management system and involve the participation of the community (MML). The result showed the implementation of routine maintenance of road conditions in Central Java province has yet to implement an environmental management by involving the community; Therefore developed environmental management model with the results of H1: Community Participation (PSM) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML); H2: Behavior Society in Jalan Utilization (PMJ) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H3: Provincial Road Service (PJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H4: Safety in the Provincial Road (KJP) positive effect on Model Environmental Management (MML); H5: Integrated Management System (SMT) has positive influence on the Model of Environmental Management (MML). From the analysis obtained formulation model describing the relationship / influence of the independent variables PSM, PMJ, PJP, KJP, and SMT on the dependent variable

  4. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs

  5. 1987 Oak Ridge model conference: Proceedings: Volume 2, Environmental protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    See the abstract for Volume I for general information on the conference. Topics discussed in Volume II include data management techiques for environmental protection efforts, the use of models in environmental auditing, in emergency plans, chemical accident emergency response, risk assessment, monitoring of waste sites, air and water monitoring of waste sites, and in training programs. (TEM)

  6. LOUISIANA ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING SYSTEM FOR HYPOXIA RELATED ISSUES

    Science.gov (United States)

    An environmental assessment tool to evaluate the impacts of nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants discharged from Mississippi River basins into the Gulf of Mexico and to assess their effects on receiving water quality will be described. This system (Louisiana Environmental Modeling S...

  7. Modeling Environmental Literacy of Malaysian Pre-University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shamuganathan, Sheila; Karpudewan, Mageswary

    2015-01-01

    In this study attempt was made to model the environmental literacy of Malaysian pre-university students enrolled in a matriculation college. Students enrolled in the matriculation colleges in Malaysia are the top notch students in the country. Environmental literacy of this group is perceived important because in the future these students will be…

  8. Frontier models for evaluating environmental efficiency: an overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Wall, A.

    2014-01-01

    Our aim in this paper is to provide a succinct overview of frontier-based models used to evaluate environmental efficiency, with a special emphasis on agricultural activity. We begin by providing a brief, up-to-date review of the main approaches used to measure environmental efficiency, with

  9. Complexation and molecular modeling studies of europium(III)-gallic acid-amino acid complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Mohamed; Khan, Imran; Coutinho, João A P

    2016-04-01

    With many metal-based drugs extensively used today in the treatment of cancer, attention has focused on the development of new coordination compounds with antitumor activity with europium(III) complexes recently introduced as novel anticancer drugs. The aim of this work is to design new Eu(III) complexes with gallic acid, an antioxida'nt phenolic compound. Gallic acid was chosen because it shows anticancer activity without harming health cells. As antioxidant, it helps to protect human cells against oxidative damage that implicated in DNA damage, cancer, and accelerated cell aging. In this work, the formation of binary and ternary complexes of Eu(III) with gallic acid, primary ligand, and amino acids alanine, leucine, isoleucine, and tryptophan was studied by glass electrode potentiometry in aqueous solution containing 0.1M NaNO3 at (298.2 ± 0.1) K. Their overall stability constants were evaluated and the concentration distributions of the complex species in solution were calculated. The protonation constants of gallic acid and amino acids were also determined at our experimental conditions and compared with those predicted by using conductor-like screening model for realistic solvation (COSMO-RS) model. The geometries of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes were characterized by the density functional theory (DFT). The spectroscopic UV-visible and photoluminescence measurements are carried out to confirm the formation of Eu(III)-gallic acid complexes in aqueous solutions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling Complex Nesting Structures in International Business Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bo Bernhard; Nielsen, Sabina

    2013-01-01

    hierarchical random coefficient models (RCM) are often used for the analysis of multilevel phenomena, IB issues often result in more complex nested structures. This paper illustrates how cross-nested multilevel modeling allowing for predictor variables and cross-level interactions at multiple (crossed) levels...

  11. Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

    2018-01-01

    Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

  12. Environmental management plan of the mining and industrial uranium complex in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figuereido, N.; Hilton, M.; Wiikman, L.; Oliveira, M.; Taddei, J.

    1996-01-01

    The Mining and Industrial Complex of the Pocos de Caldas Plateau (CIPC) is located at Caldas, county in the southwest of Minas Gerais state. It is a plant of the Industrias Nucleares do Brazil S.A. -INB, the only installation in Brazil for the production of uranium concentrate (yellow-cake) as ammonium diuranate (Adu). The Environmental protection and control program in practice assures the environmental management plan, in operation, maintaining the Complex within technology standards required by updated environmental concepts. The mine is an open pit operation with a surface diameter of 1000 m and an actual average depth of 120 m. Some 44 x 10 6 m 3 of the overburden material were used in embankments structures to civil engineering works in the implantation of several installations in CIPC, and the other portion of the removed material was deposited in two pre-selected areas having both an upper area of about 2,0 x 10 6 m 2 . The annual average volume of waters transported to chemical treatment is about 9,0 x 10 5 m 3 . The mill, in its full operation, processes 2500 t of ore per day and the solid and liquid tailings are directed to a waste pond system where are contained approximately 2,0 x 10 6 m 3 (2,2 x 10 6 t) of solid wastes with an estimation of further 70 x 10 5 m 3 to be disposed. The upper surface of tailings pond is about 2,0 x 10 5 m 2 . Nowadays, the environmental protection and control program aims to the development of potential pollutant areas stabilization reintegrating them into their original features or adjusting them to other forms of laudable restoration. (authors). 1 fig

  13. Universal correlators for multi-arc complex matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akemann, G.

    1997-01-01

    The correlation functions of the multi-arc complex matrix model are shown to be universal for any finite number of arcs. The universality classes are characterized by the support of the eigenvalue density and are conjectured to fall into the same classes as the ones recently found for the Hermitian model. This is explicitly shown to be true for the case of two arcs, apart from the known result for one arc. The basic tool is the iterative solution of the loop equation for the complex matrix model with multiple arcs, which provides all multi-loop correlators up to an arbitrary genus. Explicit results for genus one are given for any number of arcs. The two-arc solution is investigated in detail, including the double-scaling limit. In addition universal expressions for the string susceptibility are given for both the complex and Hermitian model. (orig.)

  14. Generic models and parameters for assessing the environmental transfer of radionuclides from routine releases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    This report is addressed to national regulatory bodies and technical and administrative personnel responsible for performing environmental impact analyses, in particular for generic assessments of doses to most exposed individuals from routine releases of radioactive effluents to atmospheric and aquatic environments. The concern of society in general for the quality of the environment and the realization that all human activities have some environmental effect, in which actions and reactions are coupled in a complex but predictable manner, have led to the development of a procedure for environmental impact analysis. This procedure is a predictive one, which tries to forecast probable environmental effects before some action, such as the construction and operation of a nuclear power station, is decided upon. The method of prediction is by the application of models that attempt to describe the environmental processes in mathematical terms in order to produce a quantitative result which can be used in the decision-making process

  15. Estimating the complexity of 3D structural models using machine learning methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejía-Herrera, Pablo; Kakurina, Maria; Royer, Jean-Jacques

    2016-04-01

    Quantifying the complexity of 3D geological structural models can play a major role in natural resources exploration surveys, for predicting environmental hazards or for forecasting fossil resources. This paper proposes a structural complexity index which can be used to help in defining the degree of effort necessary to build a 3D model for a given degree of confidence, and also to identify locations where addition efforts are required to meet a given acceptable risk of uncertainty. In this work, it is considered that the structural complexity index can be estimated using machine learning methods on raw geo-data. More precisely, the metrics for measuring the complexity can be approximated as the difficulty degree associated to the prediction of the geological objects distribution calculated based on partial information on the actual structural distribution of materials. The proposed methodology is tested on a set of 3D synthetic structural models for which the degree of effort during their building is assessed using various parameters (such as number of faults, number of part in a surface object, number of borders, ...), the rank of geological elements contained in each model, and, finally, their level of deformation (folding and faulting). The results show how the estimated complexity in a 3D model can be approximated by the quantity of partial data necessaries to simulated at a given precision the actual 3D model without error using machine learning algorithms.

  16. Setting priorities for environmental restoration at the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ton, My K.; Morgan, Robert P.

    1992-01-01

    This paper provides an evaluation of the computerized methodologies and approaches that the Department of Energy (DOE) has developed to assist in setting cleanup priorities and in allocating Environmental Restoration funds to various activities within the DOE Nuclear Weapons Complex. Issues examined include the appropriateness of the methodologies for priority setting or budget planning, their strengths and weaknesses; the limitations to the use of such systems to aid decision making; public acceptance of these systems; and the level of participation by affected or interested parties and the public in the development and implementation processes. (author)

  17. International technology transfer to support the environmental restoration needs of the DOE complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DuCharme, A.R.; Jimenez, R.D.; Roberds, W.J.

    1992-01-01

    One of the principal objectives of the International Technology Exchange Program (ITEP) is the exchange of waste management and environmental restoration (WM/ER) technologies between the US and other nations. The current emphasis of ITEP is the transfer of technologies to the US that could provide better, faster, cheaper, or safer solutions to the needs of the DOE complex. The 10 candidate technologies that have been identified thus far by ITEP are discussed. The highlights of preliminary evaluations of these technologies through a systems approach are also described. The technologies have been evaluated by a screening process to determine their applicability to the leading WM/ER needs of the DOE complex. The technologies have been qualitatively compared with the known or anticipated capabilities of domestic, base case technologies

  18. Environmental Restoration and Waste Management manpower needs assessment: US Department of Energy complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmes, C.W.; Lewis, R.E.; Hunt, S.T. (Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States)); Finn, M.G. (Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc., TN (United States))

    1992-06-01

    A study was conducted Pacific Northwest Laboratory and Oak Ridge Associated Universities, Inc. to assess the supply and demand for 53 scientific, engineering, and technical occupations relevant to the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM). These assessments were made by examining budget projections and the input of program/project and human resources managers throughout the DOE complex. Quantitative projections of full-time equivalent employees slots for each occupation have been developed for the 1993--1997 time frame. Qualitative assessments of the factors that affect recruitment, staffing, and retention are also reported. The implications of the study are discussed within the likely skills mix of the future workforce and the education and organization interventions most likely to address the needs of the DOE complex.

  19. Bim Automation: Advanced Modeling Generative Process for Complex Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banfi, F.; Fai, S.; Brumana, R.

    2017-08-01

    The new paradigm of the complexity of modern and historic structures, which are characterised by complex forms, morphological and typological variables, is one of the greatest challenges for building information modelling (BIM). Generation of complex parametric models needs new scientific knowledge concerning new digital technologies. These elements are helpful to store a vast quantity of information during the life cycle of buildings (LCB). The latest developments of parametric applications do not provide advanced tools, resulting in time-consuming work for the generation of models. This paper presents a method capable of processing and creating complex parametric Building Information Models (BIM) with Non-Uniform to NURBS) with multiple levels of details (Mixed and ReverseLoD) based on accurate 3D photogrammetric and laser scanning surveys. Complex 3D elements are converted into parametric BIM software and finite element applications (BIM to FEA) using specific exchange formats and new modelling tools. The proposed approach has been applied to different case studies: the BIM of modern structure for the courtyard of West Block on Parliament Hill in Ottawa (Ontario) and the BIM of Masegra Castel in Sondrio (Italy), encouraging the dissemination and interaction of scientific results without losing information during the generative process.

  20. Multiwalled Carbon Nanotube Deposition on Model Environmental Surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deposition of multiwalled carbon nanotubes (MWNTs) on model environmental surfaces was investigated using a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). Deposition behaviors of MWNTs on positively and negatively charged surfaces were in good agreement with Der...

  1. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  2. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Rudel

    Full Text Available Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water, we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegans and P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  3. Assaying environmental nickel toxicity using model nematodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, David; Douglas, Chandler; Huffnagle, Ian; Besser, John M.; Ingersoll, Christopher G.

    2013-01-01

    Although nickel exposure results in allergic reactions, respiratory conditions, and cancer in humans and rodents, the ramifications of excess nickel in the environment for animal and human health remain largely undescribed. Nickel and other cationic metals travel through waterways and bind to soils and sediments. To evaluate the potential toxic effects of nickel at environmental contaminant levels (8.9-7,600 µg Ni/g dry weight of sediment and 50-800 µg NiCl2/L of water), we conducted assays using two cosmopolitan nematodes, Caenorhabditis elegans and Pristionchus pacificus. We assayed the effects of both sediment-bound and aqueous nickel upon animal growth, developmental survival, lifespan, and fecundity. Uncontaminated sediments were collected from sites in the Midwestern United States and spiked with a range of nickel concentrations. We found that nickel-spiked sediment substantially impairs both survival from larval to adult stages and adult longevity in a concentration-dependent manner. Further, while aqueous nickel showed no adverse effects on either survivorship or longevity, we observed a significant decrease in fecundity, indicating that aqueous nickel could have a negative impact on nematode physiology. Intriguingly, C. elegansand P. pacificus exhibit similar, but not identical, responses to nickel exposure. Moreover, P. pacificus could be tested successfully in sediments inhospitable to C. elegans. Our results add to a growing body of literature documenting the impact of nickel on animal physiology, and suggest that environmental toxicological studies could gain an advantage by widening their repertoire of nematode species.

  4. Complex groundwater flow systems as traveling agent models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver López Corona

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing field data from pumping tests, we show that as with many other natural phenomena, groundwater flow exhibits complex dynamics described by 1/f power spectrum. This result is theoretically studied within an agent perspective. Using a traveling agent model, we prove that this statistical behavior emerges when the medium is complex. Some heuristic reasoning is provided to justify both spatial and dynamic complexity, as the result of the superposition of an infinite number of stochastic processes. Even more, we show that this implies that non-Kolmogorovian probability is needed for its study, and provide a set of new partial differential equations for groundwater flow.

  5. ENVIRONMENTAL RESPONSIBILITY MODEL BASED ON ISO 14000 MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina SITNIKOV

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide corporations, as well as their stakeholders, are more conscious of the need for environmental management, SR behaviour, and sustainable growth and development. International Standards are becoming more significant for corporations to work towards common environmental management practices. ISO 14001 is the first and the broadest standard intended at a more responsible approach of corporations and the world’s most acknowledged framework for environmental management systems that assists corporations to better manage the effect of their activities on the environment. This article aims to study ISO 14001 implementation and its effects on the environmental responsibility. A model will be built, which covers the environmental management system, the components of organizational culture, being able to influence environmental standards implementation.

  6. Synchronization Experiments With A Global Coupled Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selten, Frank; Hiemstra, Paul; Shen, Mao-Lin

    2013-04-01

    In the super modeling approach an ensemble of imperfect models are connected through nudging terms that nudge the solution of each model to the solution of all other models in the ensemble. The goal is to obtain a synchronized state through a proper choice of connection strengths that closely tracks the trajectory of the true system. For the super modeling approach to be successful, the connections should be dense and strong enough for synchronization to occur. In this study we analyze the behavior of an ensemble of connected global atmosphere-ocean models of intermediate complexity. All atmosphere models are connected to the same ocean model through the surface fluxes of heat, water and momentum, the ocean is integrated using weighted averaged surface fluxes. In particular we analyze the degree of synchronization between the atmosphere models and the characteristics of the ensemble mean solution. The results are interpreted using a low order atmosphere-ocean toy model.

  7. Evaluating the Environmental Fate of Short-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins (SCCPs) in the Nordic Environment Using a Dynamic Multimedia Model

    OpenAIRE

    Krogseth, Ingjerd Sunde; Breivik, Knut; Arnot, Jon A; Wania, Frank; Borgen, Anders; Schlabach, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Short chain chlorinated paraffins (SCCPs) raise concerns due to their potential for persistence, bioaccumulation, long-range transport and adverse effects. An understanding of their environmental fate remains limited, partly due to the complexity of the mixture. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether a mechanistic, integrated, dynamic environmental fate and bioaccumulation multimedia model (CoZMoMAN) can reconcile what is known about environmental emissions and human exposure of SC...

  8. Satlc model lesson for teaching and learning complex ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental chemistry is one of the disciplines of Science. For the goal of the deep learning of the subject, it is indispensable to present perception and models of chemical behaviour explicitly. This can be accomplished by giving careful consideration to the development of concepts such that newer approaches are given ...

  9. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base

  10. Models and parameters for environmental radiological assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miller, C W [ed.

    1984-01-01

    This book presents a unified compilation of models and parameters appropriate for assessing the impact of radioactive discharges to the environment. Models examined include those developed for the prediction of atmospheric and hydrologic transport and deposition, for terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and for internal and external dosimetry. Chapters have been entered separately into the data base. (ACR)

  11. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  12. ANS main control complex three-dimensional computer model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cleaves, J.E.; Fletcher, W.M.

    1993-01-01

    A three-dimensional (3-D) computer model of the Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) main control complex is being developed. The main control complex includes the main control room, the technical support center, the materials irradiation control room, computer equipment rooms, communications equipment rooms, cable-spreading rooms, and some support offices and breakroom facilities. The model will be used to provide facility designers and operations personnel with capabilities for fit-up/interference analysis, visual ''walk-throughs'' for optimizing maintain-ability, and human factors and operability analyses. It will be used to determine performance design characteristics, to generate construction drawings, and to integrate control room layout, equipment mounting, grounding equipment, electrical cabling, and utility services into ANS building designs. This paper describes the development of the initial phase of the 3-D computer model for the ANS main control complex and plans for its development and use

  13. Nostradamus 2014 prediction, modeling and analysis of complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Suganthan, Ponnuthurai; Chen, Guanrong; Snasel, Vaclav; Abraham, Ajith; Rössler, Otto

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of behavior of complex systems, analysis and modeling of its structure is a vitally important problem in engineering, economy and generally in science today. Examples of such systems can be seen in the world around us (including our bodies) and of course in almost every scientific discipline including such “exotic” domains as the earth’s atmosphere, turbulent fluids, economics (exchange rate and stock markets), population growth, physics (control of plasma), information flow in social networks and its dynamics, chemistry and complex networks. To understand such complex dynamics, which often exhibit strange behavior, and to use it in research or industrial applications, it is paramount to create its models. For this purpose there exists a rich spectrum of methods, from classical such as ARMA models or Box Jenkins method to modern ones like evolutionary computation, neural networks, fuzzy logic, geometry, deterministic chaos amongst others. This proceedings book is a collection of accepted ...

  14. STABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS IN LEADERSHIP MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jin ZHANG; Shouyang WANG; Lei ZU

    2008-01-01

    International Environmental Agreements (IEAs) are a form of cooperation ratified by countries which can improve the management of shared environmental resources. The authors analyze the stability of International Environmental Agreements in leadership model. In 2006, Diamantoudi & Sartzetakis found that a stable coalition consists of either 2, 3, or 4 members if the number of countries is greater than 4. Their model is reconsidered. It is shown that the size of stable IEAs decreases from 3 to 2 when the total number of countries involved increases. However, a situation that can guarantee 4 to be the size of stable IEAs could not be found.

  15. Mathematical model in economic environmental problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahorski, Z. [Polish Academy of Sciences, Systems Research Inst. (Poland); Ravn, H.F. [Risoe National Lab. (Denmark)

    1996-12-31

    The report contains a review of basic models and mathematical tools used in economic regulation problems. It starts with presentation of basic models of capital accumulation, resource depletion, pollution accumulation, and population growth, as well as construction of utility functions. Then the one-state variable model is discussed in details. The basic mathematical methods used consist of application of the maximum principle and phase plane analysis of the differential equations obtained as the necessary conditions of optimality. A summary of basic results connected with these methods is given in appendices. (au) 13 ills.; 17 refs.

  16. Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abumeri, Galib H.; Chamis, Christos C.

    2010-01-01

    Complex material behavior is represented by a single equation of product form to account for interaction among the various factors. The factors are selected by the physics of the problem and the environment that the model is to represent. For example, different factors will be required for each to represent temperature, moisture, erosion, corrosion, etc. It is important that the equation represent the physics of the behavior in its entirety accurately. The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the external launch tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points - the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation, the data used were obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated. The problem lies in how to represent the divot weight with a single equation. A unique solution to this problem is a multi-factor equation of product form. Each factor is of the following form (1 xi/xf)ei, where xi is the initial value, usually at ambient conditions, xf the final value, and ei the exponent that makes the curve represented unimodal that meets the initial and final values. The exponents are either evaluated by test data or by technical judgment. A minor disadvantage may be the selection of exponents in the absence of any empirical data. This form has been used successfully in describing the foam ejected in simulated space environmental conditions. Seven factors were required

  17. Modeling geophysical complexity: a case for geometric determinism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Puente

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available It has been customary in the last few decades to employ stochastic models to represent complex data sets encountered in geophysics, particularly in hydrology. This article reviews a deterministic geometric procedure to data modeling, one that represents whole data sets as derived distributions of simple multifractal measures via fractal functions. It is shown how such a procedure may lead to faithful holistic representations of existing geophysical data sets that, while complementing existing representations via stochastic methods, may also provide a compact language for geophysical complexity. The implications of these ideas, both scientific and philosophical, are stressed.

  18. The Modular Modeling System (MMS): A modeling framework for water- and environmental-resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leavesley, G.H.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    The interdisciplinary nature and increasing complexity of water- and environmental-resource problems require the use of modeling approaches that can incorporate knowledge from a broad range of scientific disciplines. The large number of distributed hydrological and ecosystem models currently available are composed of a variety of different conceptualizations of the associated processes they simulate. Assessment of the capabilities of these distributed models requires evaluation of the conceptualizations of the individual processes, and the identification of which conceptualizations are most appropriate for various combinations of criteria, such as problem objectives, data constraints, and spatial and temporal scales of application. With this knowledge, "optimal" models for specific sets of criteria can be created and applied. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Modular Modeling System (MMS) is an integrated system of computer software that has been developed to provide these model development and application capabilities. MMS supports the integration of models and tools at a variety of levels of modular design. These include individual process models, tightly coupled models, loosely coupled models, and fully-integrated decision support systems. A variety of visualization and statistical tools are also provided. MMS has been coupled with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR) object-oriented reservoir and river-system modeling framework, RiverWare, under a joint USGS-BOR program called the Watershed and River System Management Program. MMS and RiverWare are linked using a shared relational database. The resulting database-centered decision support system provides tools for evaluating and applying optimal resource-allocation and management strategies to complex, operational decisions on multipurpose reservoir systems and watersheds. Management issues being addressed include efficiency of water-resources management, environmental concerns such as meeting flow needs for

  19. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-01-01

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters

  20. Deterministic ripple-spreading model for complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xiao-Bing; Wang, Ming; Leeson, Mark S; Hines, Evor L; Di Paolo, Ezequiel

    2011-04-01

    This paper proposes a deterministic complex network model, which is inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon. The motivations and main advantages of the model are the following: (i) The establishment of many real-world networks is a dynamic process, where it is often observed that the influence of a few local events spreads out through nodes, and then largely determines the final network topology. Obviously, this dynamic process involves many spatial and temporal factors. By simulating the natural ripple-spreading process, this paper reports a very natural way to set up a spatial and temporal model for such complex networks. (ii) Existing relevant network models are all stochastic models, i.e., with a given input, they cannot output a unique topology. Differently, the proposed ripple-spreading model can uniquely determine the final network topology, and at the same time, the stochastic feature of complex networks is captured by randomly initializing ripple-spreading related parameters. (iii) The proposed model can use an easily manageable number of ripple-spreading related parameters to precisely describe a network topology, which is more memory efficient when compared with traditional adjacency matrix or similar memory-expensive data structures. (iv) The ripple-spreading model has a very good potential for both extensions and applications.

  1. Complexity, rhizome and magma, three key elements in pattern building in environmental research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noguera de Echeverri, Ana Patricia

    2002-01-01

    The following reading synthesizes the rur-urban-agrary environmental research pattern that appear from the research Caldas Agrary Environmental Profile (IDEA, National University, Manizales - Colciencias, 1998 - 2000). This pattern is constructed from three ideas of the contemporary philosophy: complexity, rhizome and magma that comes from another disciplines: the mathematics, botanic, and geology. The genetics-historical method that follows this article, starts with a critical analysis to the relation forms between society and nature that belongs to the modernity, to do then, a presentation of the influence of the ecology in the construction of new relations between society and nature, culture and nature, and the influence of the theory of systems in a systemic view of society, culture, and nature. Finish with a presentation of the pattern ecosystem-culture made for Augusto Angel Maya and the critical-development that becomes form this pattern, that we had named rur-urban-agrary rhizoma. For example we show how this research pattern let us to amplify the methodology of river basins that we use inside the Agrary Environmental Profile

  2. Monitoring and Analysis of Environmental Gamma Dose Rate around Serpong Nuclear Complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I.P. Susila

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available An environmental radiation monitoring system that continuously measures gamma dose rate around nuclear facilities is an important tool to present dose rate information to the public or authorities for radiological protection during both normal operation and radiological accidents. We have developed such a system that consists of six GM-based device for monitoring the environmental dose rate around Serpong Nuclear Complex. It has operated since 2010. In this study, a description of the system and analysis of measured data are presented. Analysis of the data for the last five years shows that the average dose rate levels were between 84-99 nSv/h which are still lower than terrestrial gamma radiation levels at several other locations in Indonesia. Time series analysis of the monitoring data demonstrates a good agreement between an increase in environmental gamma dose rate and the presence of iodine and argon in the air by in situ measurement. This result indicates that system is also effective for an early warning system in the case of radiological emergency.

  3. Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex. [Construction and operation of proposed facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

    1982-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report.

  4. Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex environmental monitoring report for calendar year 1984

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-05-01

    At the Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex all effluent streams are sampled regularly and analyzed to assess compliance with applicable environmental standards. Radioactivity is measured in air, water, fish, produce, soil, and sediments; and radiation doses to the public are calculated. The calculated public radiation doses from process effluents are within US Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental Protection Agency standards. An extensive amount of engineering effort is underway to modify existing airborne radioactivity emissions sources to further reduce emissions in compliance with DOE policy. Non-radioactive effluents either presently comply with federal standards or will comply upon completion of planned projects. CY-1984 was the fourth full year under the current National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit for liquid effluents, and the second year the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assumed responsibility for administering the NPDES program. Compliance with the permit's discharge limits, with the exception of violations due to the startup of two new wastewater treatment facilities, did not present any significant problems. Overall compliance was 94.7%

  5. Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex environmental monitoring report for calendar year 1985

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1986-05-01

    At the Portsmouth Uranium Enrichment Complex all effluent streams are sampled regularly and analyzed to assess compliance with applicable environmental standards. Radioactivity is measured in air, water, fish, produce, soil, sediments and vegetation; and radiation doses to the public are calculated. The calculated public radiation doses from process effluents are within US Department of Energy (DOE) and US Environmental protection Agency (USEPA) standards. An extensive amount of engineering effort is underway to modify existing airborne radioactivity emissions sources to further reduce emissions in compliance with DOE policy. Non-radioactive effluents either presently comply with federal standards or will comply upon completion of planned projects. CY-1985 was the fifth full year under the current National Pullutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) permit for liquid effluents, and the third year since the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency (OEPA) assumed responsibility for administering the NPDES program. Compliance with the permit's discharge limits, with the exception of violations due to the Coal Pile Treatment Facility and the Biodenitrification Plant for which projects to improve performance are currently underway, did not present any significant problems. Overall compliance was 95.5%. There was increased activity in the areas of groundwater monitoring, hazardous waste and PCB waste management to comply with Federal regulations

  6. Exploratory behaviour in the open field test adapted for larval zebrafish: impact of environmental complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Farooq; Richardson, Michael K

    2013-01-01

    This study aimed to develop and characterize a novel (standard) open field test adapted for larval zebrafish. We also developed and characterized a variant of the same assay consisting of a colour-enriched open field; this was used to assess the impact of environmental complexity on patterns of exploratory behaviours as well to determine natural colour preference/avoidance. We report the following main findings: (1) zebrafish larvae display characteristic patterns of exploratory behaviours in the standard open field, such as thigmotaxis/centre avoidance; (2) environmental complexity (i.e. presence of colours) differentially affects patterns of exploratory behaviours and greatly attenuates natural zone preference; (3) larvae displayed the ability to discriminate colours. As reported previously in adult zebrafish, larvae showed avoidance towards blue and black; however, in contrast to the reported adult behaviour, larvae displayed avoidance towards red. Avoidance towards yellow and preference for green and orange are shown for the first time, (4) compared to standard open field tests, exposure to the colour-enriched open field resulted in an enhanced expression of anxiety-like behaviours. To conclude, we not only developed and adapted a traditional rodent behavioural assay that serves as a gold standard in preclinical drug screening, but we also provide a version of the same test that affords the possibility to investigate the impact of environmental stress on behaviour in larval zebrafish while representing the first test for assessment of natural colour preference/avoidance in larval zebrafish. In the future, these assays will improve preclinical drug screening methodologies towards the goal to uncover novel drugs. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: insert SI title. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Effects of Environmental Air Pollution on Pulmonary Function Level of Residents in Korean Industrial Complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Eunju; Lee, Seokwon; Kim, Geun-Bae; Kim, Tae-Jong; Kim, Hyoung-Wook; Lee, Kyoungho; Son, Bu-Soon

    2018-04-24

    This study aims to identify environmental air pollution adversely affecting pulmonary function among a community-based general population living in Korean industrial complexes. A total of 1963 residents participated in a pulmonary function test (PFT). The sample population consisted of an exposed group ( n = 1487) living within a radius of 5 km of industrial complexes and a control group ( n = 476) living over a radius of 10 km from the industrial complexes in Gwangyang and Yeosu cities. PFT results were calculated for each resident of the study population. On-site questionnaire surveys with face-to-face interviews were also conducted to collect more detailed information on personal lifestyles, medical history, exposure to air pollution, and respiratory disease and related symptoms. A total of 486 measured samples were collected by eight automated air-monitoring stations installed in four counties of Gwangyang and four counties of Yeosu in South Korea from January 2006 to February 2007. Mean levels of SO₂ (0.012 ppm), CO (0.648 ppm), NO₂ (0.02 ppm), O₃ (0.034 ppm), and PM 10 (43.07 μg/m³), collected within a radius of 5 km, were significantly higher than those collected over a radius of 10 km from Gwangyang and Yeosu industrial complexes. Prevalence odds ratio (OR) of abnormal pulmonary function in the exposed group of residents ( 0.05). In multiple linear regression analysis, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV₁) and forced vital capacity (FVC) levels significantly declined as SO₂, CO, and O₃ levels increased when adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), alcohol, smoking, secondhand smoke, and respiratory disease and related symptoms ( n = 1963) ( p < 0.05). These results suggest that exposure to air pollution affects pulmonary function levels of residents living in Korean industrial complexes.

  8. Application of a predictive Bayesian model to environmental accounting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anex, R P; Englehardt, J D

    2001-03-30

    Environmental accounting techniques are intended to capture important environmental costs and benefits that are often overlooked in standard accounting practices. Environmental accounting methods themselves often ignore or inadequately represent large but highly uncertain environmental costs and costs conditioned by specific prior events. Use of a predictive Bayesian model is demonstrated for the assessment of such highly uncertain environmental and contingent costs. The predictive Bayesian approach presented generates probability distributions for the quantity of interest (rather than parameters thereof). A spreadsheet implementation of a previously proposed predictive Bayesian model, extended to represent contingent costs, is described and used to evaluate whether a firm should undertake an accelerated phase-out of its PCB containing transformers. Variability and uncertainty (due to lack of information) in transformer accident frequency and severity are assessed simultaneously using a combination of historical accident data, engineering model-based cost estimates, and subjective judgement. Model results are compared using several different risk measures. Use of the model for incorporation of environmental risk management into a company's overall risk management strategy is discussed.

  9. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maloszewski, P.; Zuber, A.

    1996-01-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs

  10. Lumped parameter models for the interpretation of environmental tracer data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maloszewski, P [GSF-Inst. for Hydrology, Oberschleissheim (Germany); Zuber, A [Institute of Nuclear Physics, Cracow (Poland)

    1996-10-01

    Principles of the lumped-parameter approach to the interpretation of environmental tracer data are given. The following models are considered: the piston flow model (PFM), exponential flow model (EM), linear model (LM), combined piston flow and exponential flow model (EPM), combined linear flow and piston flow model (LPM), and dispersion model (DM). The applicability of these models for the interpretation of different tracer data is discussed for a steady state flow approximation. Case studies are given to exemplify the applicability of the lumped-parameter approach. Description of a user-friendly computer program is given. (author). 68 refs, 25 figs, 4 tabs.

  11. Riparian erosion vulnerability model based on environmental features.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botero-Acosta, Alejandra; Chu, Maria L; Guzman, Jorge A; Starks, Patrick J; Moriasi, Daniel N

    2017-12-01

    Riparian erosion is one of the major causes of sediment and contaminant load to streams, degradation of riparian wildlife habitats, and land loss hazards. Land and soil management practices are implemented as conservation and restoration measures to mitigate the environmental problems brought about by riparian erosion. This, however, requires the identification of vulnerable areas to soil erosion. Because of the complex interactions between the different mechanisms that govern soil erosion and the inherent uncertainties involved in quantifying these processes, assessing erosion vulnerability at the watershed scale is challenging. The main objective of this study was to develop a methodology to identify areas along the riparian zone that are susceptible to erosion. The methodology was developed by integrating the physically-based watershed model MIKE-SHE, to simulate water movement, and a habitat suitability model, MaxEnt, to quantify the probability of presences of elevation changes (i.e., erosion) across the watershed. The presences of elevation changes were estimated based on two LiDAR-based elevation datasets taken in 2009 and 2012. The changes in elevation were grouped into four categories: low (0.5 - 0.7 m), medium (0.7 - 1.0 m), high (1.0 - 1.7 m) and very high (1.7 - 5.9 m), considering each category as a studied "species". The categories' locations were then used as "species location" map in MaxEnt. The environmental features used as constraints to the presence of erosion were land cover, soil, stream power index, overland flow, lateral inflow, and discharge. The modeling framework was evaluated in the Fort Cobb Reservoir Experimental watershed in southcentral Oklahoma. Results showed that the most vulnerable areas for erosion were located at the upper riparian zones of the Cobb and Lake sub-watersheds. The main waterways of these sub-watersheds were also found to be prone to streambank erosion. Approximatively 80% of the riparian zone (streambank

  12. Assessing and managing health and environmental risks from energy and other complex industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    There is a growing awareness that it is necessary to identify, assess, and manage the risks of energy and other complex industrial activities in order to minimize their potential to harm public health and the environment. Therefore, quantitative risk analysis with emphasis on risk management has become an important aspect in high level decision making for regulation in developed and developing countries. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have initiated a project to promote the use of risk assessment and risk management in environmental health and safety decision making throughout the world. A meeting was held in Paris, France on October 13-17, 1986. The purpose of the meeting was to: a) Discuss the state of the art of national and international experience in conducting case studies in the field of assessing and managing industrial risks from energy and other complex industrial systems either at the plant level or in highly industrialized areas within a country; b) Present and discuss planned regional risk management case studies within a country or international research projects on risk management to be implemented in the future; and c) Review the Project Document on ''Assessing, Controlling, and Managing Health and Environmental Risks from Energy and Other Complex Industrial Systems''. The full texts, together with abstracts, of the papers given at the meeting are presented. The summary reviews briefly some of the major points that arose in papers or in the ensuing discussions. Where a consensus view resulted, conclusions were drawn. Major differences of opinion are also noted

  13. Model of environmental management system for environmentally sustainable universities training in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas Marin, Maria Isabel

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable campuses have become one of the main objectives of the Agendas University as a result of the impacts generated by the activities developed there and affect the environment. Given this, there are environmental management systems which are the set of practices, procedures, processes and resources needed to meet environmental regulations on business and are focused on reducing the impacts on the environment and the efficiency of processes. College- level companies still being considered, these systems do not work efficiently, it is necessary and urgent that the adequacy of a model environmental management system and that, through education and research, will help society to achieve the transition to sustainable lifestyles.

  14. Environmental Warning System Based on the DPSIR Model: A Practical and Concise Method for Environmental Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenqi Wang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Though we are in urgent need of environmental warnings to slow environmental deterioration, currently, there is no internationally concise method for environmental warnings. In addition, the existing approaches do not combine the three aspects of ecology, resources, and environment. At the same time, the three elements of the environment (air, water, and soil are separated in most environmental warning systems. Thus, the method this paper gives is an innovative attempt and aims to make environmental assessment more practical. This paper establishes the index system of an environmental early warning based on the Driving–Pressure–State–Influence–Response (DPSIR model. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP method was used to determine the weights. Next, single and integrated index methods further assess the environmental warning state, in which the weighted summation method is used to summarize the data and results. The case of Tianjin is used to confirm the applicability of this method. In conclusion, the method in this paper is more well-behaved and, therefore, more suitable to assist cities in their environmental assessment.

  15. Coupling model of energy consumption with changes in environmental utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Hongming; Jim, C.Y.

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility changes by a proposed Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model. Based on the dynamic equilibrium of input–output economics theory, it considers three simulation scenarios: fixed-technology, technological-innovation, and green-building effect. It is applied to analyse Hong Kong in 1980–2007. Continual increase in energy consumption with rapid economic growth degraded environmental utility. First, energy consumption at fixed-technology was determined by economic outcome. In 1990, it reached a critical balanced state when energy consumption was 22×10 9 kWh. Before 1990 (x 1 9 kWh), rise in energy consumption improved both economic development and environmental utility. After 1990 (x 1 >22×10 9 kWh), expansion of energy consumption facilitated socio-economic development but suppressed environmental benefits. Second, technological-innovation strongly influenced energy demand and improved environmental benefits. The balanced state remained in 1999 when energy consumption reached 32.33×10 9 kWh. Technological-innovation dampened energy consumption by 12.99%, exceeding the fixed-technology condition. Finally, green buildings reduced energy consumption by an average of 17.5% in 1990–2007. They contributed significantly to energy saving, and buffered temperature fluctuations between external and internal environment. The case investigations verified the efficiency of the EUEC model, which can effectively evaluate the interplay of energy consumption and environmental quality. - Highlights: ► We explore relationships between metropolis energy consumption and environmental utility. ► An Environmental Utility of Energy Consumption (EUEC) model is proposed. ► Technological innovation mitigates energy consumption impacts on environmental quality. ► Technological innovation decreases demand of energy consumption more than fixed technology scenario

  16. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polanco, Camilo

    2006-01-01

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  17. Modeling Influenza Transmission Using Environmental Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard K.

    2010-01-01

    Influenza is an acute viral respiratory disease that has significant mortality, morbidity and economic burden worldwide. It infects approximately 5-15% of the world population, and causes 250,000 500,000 deaths each year. The role of environments on influenza is often drawn upon the latitude variability of influenza seasonality pattern. In regions with temperate climate, influenza epidemics exhibit clear seasonal pattern that peak during winter months, but it is not as evident in the tropics. Toward this end, we developed mathematical model and forecasting capabilities for influenza in regions characterized by warm climate Hong Kong (China) and Maricopa County (Arizona, USA). The best model for Hong Kong uses Land Surface Temperature (LST), precipitation and relative humidity as its covariates. Whereas for Maricopa County, we found that weekly influenza cases can be best modelled using mean air temperature as its covariates. Our forecasts can further guides public health organizations in targeting influenza prevention and control measures such as vaccination.

  18. Development of a site specific environmental radiation assessment model for Youngkwang NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Yang Geun; Song, Myung Jae; Shon, Soon Hwan; Shin, Sang Woon; Lee, Gap Bock; Yang, Kyung Hwa [Korea Electric Power Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Seong Pyung; Kim, Jeong Kyu; Shin, Dae Yoon; Kim, Hyun Ku; Lee, Kyung Jin [Chosun University, Kwangju (Korea, Republic of)

    1996-12-31

    During the normal operation of nuclear power plants, a very small amount of radionuclide materials is released to the environment. The radionuclide releases to the environment may give rise to some additional radiation dose through a number of pathways. With a few exception, radionuclide transports are highly dependent on the environmental conditions such as topological features, atmospheric and oceanic conditions and socio-environmental characteristics, etc. The dose calculation in Korea are presently being performed using the models in US NRC Reg. Guide. However, these models which were originally released by the US NRC in 1977 are inadequate to deal with environmental movement of radionuclides in consideration of complex terrain, tidal condition of the Yellow Sea, and Youngkwang site specific conditions. KEPRI has developed the models to consider the site specific characteristics around Youngkwang NPPs, to give the realistic dose assessment, and to improve assurance and reliability in public dose calculation. (author). 41 figs., 70 refs.

  19. Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

    2013-09-01

    Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Effect of some environmental ligands and fertilizers on humic acid complexation with strontium. Vol. 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helal, A A; Iman, D M; Khalifa, S M; Aly, H F [Hot Laborities Center, Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo, (Egypt)

    1996-03-01

    Strontium-90 represents one of the main radionuclides produced in fission products. Migration of strontium in the environment in case of accidental release is governed by many factors, besides its interaction with the materials present in the environment. Both humic acid and fertilizers are present on agricultural lands or aqueous streams. Other ligands such as EDTA, citrates, and phosphates are present in the environment. The binding and exchange of cations by the soil organic fractions is of importance in soil fertility because the supply of Na{sup +}, K{sup +}, Ca{sup 2+}, Mg{sup 2+} and certain micro nutrients (Cu{sup 2+}, Mn{sup 2+}, Zn{sup 2+} and Fe{sup 3+}) to plant is strongly dependent on the cation exchange capacity of the soil which may be induced by organic matters. The effect of the presence of certain fertilizers and some environmental ligands on the Sr-humate complex was studied. In general, the fertilizers and the complexing ligands investigated are compared with humic acid in its complexation with strontium. 6 figs.

  1. Models in environmental regulatory decision making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Models in the Regulatory Decision Process; National Research Council; Division on Earth and Life Studies; National Research Council

    2007-01-01

    .... The centerpiece of the book's recommended vision is a life-cycle approach to model evaluation which includes peer review, corroboration of results, and other activities. This will enhance the agency's ability to respond to requirements from a 2001 law on information quality and improve policy development and implementation.

  2. Assessing Complexity in Learning Outcomes--A Comparison between the SOLO Taxonomy and the Model of Hierarchical Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stålne, Kristian; Kjellström, Sofia; Utriainen, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    An important aspect of higher education is to educate students who can manage complex relationships and solve complex problems. Teachers need to be able to evaluate course content with regard to complexity, as well as evaluate students' ability to assimilate complex content and express it in the form of a learning outcome. One model for evaluating…

  3. Hydrologic analyses in support of the Navajo Generating Station–Kayenta Mine Complex environmental impact statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leake, Stanley A.; Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

    2016-06-01

    IntroductionThe U.S. Department of Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, Lower Colorado Region (Reclamation) is preparing an environmental impact statement (EIS) for the Navajo Generating Station-Kayenta Mine Complex Project (NGS-KMC Project). The proposed project involves various Federal approvals that would facilitate continued operation of the Navajo Generating Station (NGS) from December 23, 2019 through 2044, and continued operation of the Kayenta Mine and support facilities (collectively called the Kayenta Mine Complex, or KMC) to supply coal to the NGS for this operational period. The EIS will consider several project alternatives that are likely to produce different effects on the Navajo (N) aquifer; the N aquifer is the principal water resource in the Black Mesa area used by the Navajo Nation, Hopi Tribe, and Peabody Western Coal Company (PWCC).The N aquifer is composed of three hydraulically connected formations—the Navajo Sandstone, the Kayenta Formation, and the Lukachukai Member of the Wingate Sandstone—that function as a single aquifer. The N aquifer is confined under most of Black Mesa, and the overlying stratigraphy limits recharge to this part of the aquifer. The N aquifer is unconfined in areas surrounding Black Mesa, and most recharge occurs where the Navajo Sandstone is exposed in the area near Shonto, Arizona. Overlying the N aquifer is the D aquifer, which includes the Dakota Sandstone, Morrison Formation, Entrada Sandstone, and Carmel Formation. The aquifer is named for the Dakota Sandstone, which is the primary water-bearing unit.The NGS is located near Page, Arizona on the Navajo Nation. The KMC, which delivers coal to NGS by way of a dedicated electric railroad, is located approximately 83 miles southeast of NGS (about 125 miles northeast of Flagstaff, Arizona). The Kayenta Mine permit area is located on about 44,073 acres of land leased within the boundaries of the Hopi and Navajo Indian Reservations. KMC has been conducting mining and

  4. The evolution of the Dogger Bank, North Sea: A complex history of terrestrial, glacial and marine environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotterill, Carol J.; Phillips, Emrys; James, Leo; Forsberg, Carl Fredrik; Tjelta, Tor Inge; Carter, Gareth; Dove, Dayton

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents a summary of the results of a detailed multidisciplinary study of the near surface geology of the Dogger Bank in the southern central North Sea, forming part of a site investigation for a major windfarm development undertaken by the Forewind consortium. It has revealed that the Dogger Bank is internally complex rather than comprising a simple ;layer cake; of the Quaternary sediments as previously thought. Regional and high-resolution seismic surveys have enabled a revised stratigraphic framework to be established for the upper part of this sequence which comprises the Eem (oldest), Dogger Bank, Bolders Bank formations and Botney Cut Formation (youngest), overlain by a typically thin Holocene sequence. Detailed mapping of key horizons identified on the high-resolution seismic profiles has led to the recognition of a series of buried palaeo-landsystems which are characterised by a range of features including; glacial, glacifluvial and fluvial channels, a large-scale glacitectonic thrust-moraine complex with intervening ice-marginal basins, a lacustrine basin and marine ravinement surfaces. Interpretation of these buried landscapes has enabled the development of an environmental change model to explain the evolution of the Dogger Bank. This evolution was driven by the complex interplay between climate change, ice sheet dynamics and sea level change associated with the growth and subsequent demise of the British and Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets during the Weichselian glaciation. Following the decay of these ice sheets the Dogger Bank entered a period of significant climatic and environmental flux which saw a terrestrial landscape being progressively inundated as sea levels rose during the Holocene.

  5. Modelling, Estimation and Control of Networked Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Chiuso, Alessandro; Frasca, Mattia; Rizzo, Alessandro; Schenato, Luca; Zampieri, Sandro

    2009-01-01

    The paradigm of complexity is pervading both science and engineering, leading to the emergence of novel approaches oriented at the development of a systemic view of the phenomena under study; the definition of powerful tools for modelling, estimation, and control; and the cross-fertilization of different disciplines and approaches. This book is devoted to networked systems which are one of the most promising paradigms of complexity. It is demonstrated that complex, dynamical networks are powerful tools to model, estimate, and control many interesting phenomena, like agent coordination, synchronization, social and economics events, networks of critical infrastructures, resources allocation, information processing, or control over communication networks. Moreover, it is shown how the recent technological advances in wireless communication and decreasing in cost and size of electronic devices are promoting the appearance of large inexpensive interconnected systems, each with computational, sensing and mobile cap...

  6. Infinite Multiple Membership Relational Modeling for Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Hansen, Lars Kai

    Learning latent structure in complex networks has become an important problem fueled by many types of networked data originating from practically all fields of science. In this paper, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian multiplemembership latent feature model for networks. Contrary to existing...... multiplemembership models that scale quadratically in the number of vertices the proposedmodel scales linearly in the number of links admittingmultiple-membership analysis in large scale networks. We demonstrate a connection between the single membership relational model and multiple membership models and show...

  7. Modeling data irregularities and structural complexities in data envelopment analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Zhu, Joe

    2007-01-01

    In a relatively short period of time, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has grown into a powerful quantitative, analytical tool for measuring and evaluating performance. It has been successfully applied to a whole variety of problems in many different contexts worldwide. This book deals with the micro aspects of handling and modeling data issues in modeling DEA problems. DEA's use has grown with its capability of dealing with complex "service industry" and the "public service domain" types of problems that require modeling of both qualitative and quantitative data. This handbook treatment deals with specific data problems including: imprecise or inaccurate data; missing data; qualitative data; outliers; undesirable outputs; quality data; statistical analysis; software and other data aspects of modeling complex DEA problems. In addition, the book will demonstrate how to visualize DEA results when the data is more than 3-dimensional, and how to identify efficiency units quickly and accurately.

  8. Modeling the propagation of mobile malware on complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wanping; Liu, Chao; Yang, Zheng; Liu, Xiaoyang; Zhang, Yihao; Wei, Zuxue

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, the spreading behavior of malware across mobile devices is addressed. By introducing complex networks to model mobile networks, which follows the power-law degree distribution, a novel epidemic model for mobile malware propagation is proposed. The spreading threshold that guarantees the dynamics of the model is calculated. Theoretically, the asymptotic stability of the malware-free equilibrium is confirmed when the threshold is below the unity, and the global stability is further proved under some sufficient conditions. The influences of different model parameters as well as the network topology on malware propagation are also analyzed. Our theoretical studies and numerical simulations show that networks with higher heterogeneity conduce to the diffusion of malware, and complex networks with lower power-law exponents benefit malware spreading.

  9. Working Group Reports: Working Group 1 - Software Systems Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The purpose of the Interagency Steering Committee on Multimedia Environmental Modeling (ISCMEM) is to foster the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases that are all in the public domain. It is compos...

  10. Modelling and simulating in-stent restenosis with complex automata

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, A.G.; Lawford, P.; Hose, R.

    2010-01-01

    In-stent restenosis, the maladaptive response of a blood vessel to injury caused by the deployment of a stent, is a multiscale system involving a large number of biological and physical processes. We describe a Complex Automata Model for in-stent restenosis, coupling bulk flow, drug diffusion, and

  11. The Complexity of Developmental Predictions from Dual Process Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.; Toplak, Maggie E.

    2011-01-01

    Drawing developmental predictions from dual-process theories is more complex than is commonly realized. Overly simplified predictions drawn from such models may lead to premature rejection of the dual process approach as one of many tools for understanding cognitive development. Misleading predictions can be avoided by paying attention to several…

  12. Constructive Lower Bounds on Model Complexity of Shallow Perceptron Networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 7 (2018), s. 305-315 ISSN 0941-0643 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-18108S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow and deep networks * model complexity and sparsity * signum perceptron networks * finite mappings * variational norms * Hadamard matrices Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 2.505, year: 2016

  13. Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2012-01-01

    Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

  14. Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

  15. Framework for Modelling Multiple Input Complex Aggregations for Interactive Installations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Padfield, Nicolas; Andreasen, Troels

    2012-01-01

    on fuzzy logic and provides a method for variably balancing interaction and user input with the intention of the artist or director. An experimental design is presented, demonstrating an intuitive interface for parametric modelling of a complex aggregation function. The aggregation function unifies...

  16. Model-based safety architecture framework for complex systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuitemaker, Katja; Rajabali Nejad, Mohammadreza; Braakhuis, J.G.; Podofillini, Luca; Sudret, Bruno; Stojadinovic, Bozidar; Zio, Enrico; Kröger, Wolfgang

    2015-01-01

    The shift to transparency and rising need of the general public for safety, together with the increasing complexity and interdisciplinarity of modern safety-critical Systems of Systems (SoS) have resulted in a Model-Based Safety Architecture Framework (MBSAF) for capturing and sharing architectural

  17. A binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-03

    Sep 3, 2017 ... Bi-variable and multi-variable binary logistic regression model with complex sampling design was fitted. .... Data was entered into STATA-12 and analyzed using. SPSS-21. .... lack of access/too far or costs too much. 35. 1.2.

  18. On the general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Shanyu.

    1987-12-01

    In this paper, the principle of a general procedure for modelling complex ecological systems, i.e. the Adaptive Superposition Procedure (ASP) is shortly stated. The result of application of ASP in a national project for ecological regionalization is also described. (author). 3 refs

  19. The dynamic complexity of a three species food chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv Songjuan; Zhao Min

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a three-species food chain model is analytically investigated on theories of ecology and using numerical simulation. Bifurcation diagrams are obtained for biologically feasible parameters. The results show that the system exhibits rich complexity features such as stable, periodic and chaotic dynamics

  20. Modeling adaptive and non-adaptive responses to environmental change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Coulson, Tim; Kendall, Bruce E; Barthold, Julia A.

    2017-01-01

    , with plastic responses being either adaptive or non-adaptive. We develop an approach that links quantitative genetic theory with data-driven structured models to allow prediction of population responses to environmental change via plasticity and adaptive evolution. After introducing general new theory, we...... construct a number of example models to demonstrate that evolutionary responses to environmental change over the short-term will be considerably slower than plastic responses, and that the rate of adaptive evolution to a new environment depends upon whether plastic responses are adaptive or non-adaptive....... Parameterization of the models we develop requires information on genetic and phenotypic variation and demography that will not always be available, meaning that simpler models will often be required to predict responses to environmental change. We consequently develop a method to examine whether the full...

  1. Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, William H

    2017-10-01

    Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

  2. A discrete-space urban model with environmental amenities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaila Tajibaeva; Robert G. Haight; Stephen Polasky

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the effects of providing environmental amenities associated with open space in a discrete-space urban model and characterizes optimal provision of open space across a metropolitan area. The discrete-space model assumes distinct neighborhoods in which developable land is homogeneous within a neighborhood but heterogeneous across neighborhoods. Open...

  3. Integrating environmental component models. Development of a software framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, O.

    2014-01-01

    Integrated models consist of interacting component models that represent various natural and social systems. They are important tools to improve our understanding of environmental systems, to evaluate cause–effect relationships of human–natural interactions, and to forecast the behaviour of

  4. A social identity model of pro-environmental action (SIMPEA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fritsche, Immo; Barth, Markus; Jugert, Philipp; Masson, Torsten; Reese, Gerhard

    2018-03-01

    Large-scale environmental crises are genuinely collective phenomena: they usually result from collective, rather than personal, behavior and how they are cognitively represented and appraised is determined by collectively shared interpretations (e.g., differing across ideological groups) and based on concern for collectives (e.g., humankind, future generations) rather than for individuals. Nevertheless, pro-environmental action has been primarily investigated as a personal decision-making process. We complement this research with a social identity perspective on pro-environmental action. Social identity is the human capacity to define the self in terms of "We" instead of "I," enabling people to think and act as collectives, which should be crucial given personal insufficiency to appraise and effectively respond to environmental crises. We propose a Social Identity Model of Pro-Environmental Action (SIMPEA) of how social identity processes affect both appraisal of and behavioral responses to large-scale environmental crises. We review related and pertinent research providing initial evidence for the role of 4 social identity processes hypothesized in SIMPEA. Specifically, we propose that ingroup identification, ingroup norms and goals, and collective efficacy determine environmental appraisals as well as both private and public sphere environmental action. These processes are driven by personal and collective emotions and motivations that arise from environmental appraisal and operate on both a deliberate and automatic processing level. Finally, we discuss SIMPEA's implications for the research agenda in environmental and social psychology and for interventions fostering pro-environmental action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Surface Complexation Modeling in Variable Charge Soils: Charge Characterization by Potentiometric Titration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuliano Marchi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Intrinsic equilibrium constants of 17 representative Brazilian Oxisols were estimated from potentiometric titration measuring the adsorption of H+ and OH− on amphoteric surfaces in suspensions of varying ionic strength. Equilibrium constants were fitted to two surface complexation models: diffuse layer and constant capacitance. The former was fitted by calculating total site concentration from curve fitting estimates and pH-extrapolation of the intrinsic equilibrium constants to the PZNPC (hand calculation, considering one and two reactive sites, and by the FITEQL software. The latter was fitted only by FITEQL, with one reactive site. Soil chemical and physical properties were correlated to the intrinsic equilibrium constants. Both surface complexation models satisfactorily fit our experimental data, but for results at low ionic strength, optimization did not converge in FITEQL. Data were incorporated in Visual MINTEQ and they provide a modeling system that can predict protonation-dissociation reactions in the soil surface under changing environmental conditions.

  6. Monitoring And Modeling Environmental Water Quality To Support Environmental Water Purchase Decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Null, S. E.; Elmore, L.; Mouzon, N. R.; Wood, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    More than 25 million cubic meters (20,000 acre feet) of water has been purchased from willing agricultural sellers for environmental flows in Nevada's Walker River to improve riverine habitat and connectivity with downstream Walker Lake. Reduced instream flows limit native fish populations, like Lahontan cutthroat trout, through warm daily stream temperatures and low dissolved oxygen concentrations. Environmental water purchases maintain instream flows, although effects on water quality are more varied. We use multi-year water quality monitoring and physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality modeling to estimate streamflow, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen concentrations with alternative environmental water purchases. We simulate water temperature and dissolved oxygen changes from increased streamflow to prioritize the time periods and locations that environmental water purchases most enhance trout habitat as a function of water quality. Monitoring results indicate stream temperature and dissolved oxygen limitations generally exist in the 115 kilometers upstream of Walker Lake (about 37% of the study area) from approximately May through September, and this reach acts as a water quality barrier for fish passage. Model results indicate that low streamflows generally coincide with critically warm stream temperatures, water quality refugia exist on a tributary of the Walker River, and environmental water purchases may improve stream temperature and dissolved oxygen conditions for some reaches and seasons, especially in dry years and prolonged droughts. This research supports environmental water purchase decision-making and allows water purchase decisions to be prioritized with other river restoration alternatives.

  7. Working Group 1: Software System Design and Implementation for Environmental Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    ISCMEM Working Group One Presentation, presentation with the purpose of fostering the exchange of information about environmental modeling tools, modeling frameworks, and environmental monitoring databases.

  8. Rethinking the Psychogenic Model of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Somatoform Disorders and Complex Regional Pain Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Renee J.; Chopra, Pradeep; Richardi, Toni

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Explaining the etiology of Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS) from the psychogenic model is exceedingly unsophisticated, because neurocognitive deficits, neuroanatomical abnormalities, and distortions in cognitive mapping are features of CRPS pathology. More importantly, many people who have developed CRPS have no history of mental illness. The psychogenic model offers comfort to physicians and mental health practitioners (MHPs) who have difficulty understanding pain maintained by newly uncovered neuro inflammatory processes. With increased education about CRPS through a biopsychosocial perspective, both physicians and MHPs can better diagnose, treat, and manage CRPS symptomatology. PMID:24223338

  9. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  10. Physical and Chemical Environmental Abstraction Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowak, E.

    2000-01-01

    As directed by a written development plan (CRWMS M and O 1999a), Task 1, an overall conceptualization of the physical and chemical environment (P/CE) in the emplacement drift is documented in this Analysis/Model Report (AMR). Included are the physical components of the engineered barrier system (EBS). The intended use of this descriptive conceptualization is to assist the Performance Assessment Department (PAD) in modeling the physical and chemical environment within a repository drift. It is also intended to assist PAD in providing a more integrated and complete in-drift geochemical model abstraction and to answer the key technical issues raised in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Issue Resolution Status Report (IRSR) for the Evolution of the Near-Field Environment (NFE) Revision 2 (NRC 1999). EBS-related features, events, and processes (FEPs) have been assembled and discussed in ''EBS FEPs/Degradation Modes Abstraction'' (CRWMS M and O 2000a). Reference AMRs listed in Section 6 address FEPs that have not been screened out. This conceptualization does not directly address those FEPs. Additional tasks described in the written development plan are recommended for future work in Section 7.3. To achieve the stated purpose, the scope of this document includes: (1) the role of in-drift physical and chemical environments in the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) (Section 6.1); (2) the configuration of engineered components (features) and critical locations in drifts (Sections 6.2.1 and 6.3, portions taken from EBS Radionuclide Transport Abstraction (CRWMS M and O 2000b)); (3) overview and critical locations of processes that can affect P/CE (Section 6.3); (4) couplings and relationships among features and processes in the drifts (Section 6.4); and (5) identities and uses of parameters transmitted to TSPA by some of the reference AMRs (Section 6.5). This AMR originally considered a design with backfill, and is now being updated (REV 00 ICN1) to address

  11. Modeling of environmentally induced transients within satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, N. John; Barbay, Gordon J.; Jones, Michael R.; Viswanathan, R.

    1987-01-01

    A technique is described that allows an estimation of possible spacecraft charging hazards. This technique, called SCREENS (spacecraft response to environments of space), utilizes the NASA charging analyzer program (NASCAP) to estimate the electrical stress locations and the charge stored in the dielectric coatings due to spacecraft encounter with a geomagnetic substorm environment. This information can then be used to determine the response of the spacecraft electrical system to a surface discharge by means of lumped element models. The coupling into the electronics is assumed to be due to magnetic linkage from the transient currents flowing as a result of the discharge transient. The behavior of a spinning spacecraft encountering a severe substorm is predicted using this technique. It is found that systems are potentially vulnerable to upset if transient signals enter through the ground lines.

  12. Applications of complex terrain meteorological models to emergency response management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Tetsuji; Leone, J.M. Jr.; Rao, K.S.; Dickerson, M.H.; Bader, D.C.; Williams, M.D.

    1989-01-01

    The Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER), US Department of Energy (DOE), has supported the development of mesoscale transport and diffusion and meteorological models for several decades. The model development activities are closely tied to the OHER field measurement program which has generated a large amount of meteorological and tracer gas data that have been used extensively to test and improve both meteorological and dispersion models. This paper briefly discusses the history of the model development activities associated with the OHER atmospheric science program. The discussion will then focus on how results from this program have made their way into the emergency response community in the past, and what activities are presently being pursued to improve real-time emergency response capabilities. Finally, fruitful areas of research for improving real-time emergency response modeling capabilities are suggested. 35 refs., 5 figs

  13. ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION MODELING: THE IMPORTANCE OF MODEL COMPLEXITY AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SELECTION CRITERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry de-Graft Acquah

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Information Criteria provides an attractive basis for selecting the best model from a set of competing asymmetric price transmission models or theories. However, little is understood about the sensitivity of the model selection methods to model complexity. This study therefore fits competing asymmetric price transmission models that differ in complexity to simulated data and evaluates the ability of the model selection methods to recover the true model. The results of Monte Carlo experimentation suggest that in general BIC, CAIC and DIC were superior to AIC when the true data generating process was the standard error correction model, whereas AIC was more successful when the true model was the complex error correction model. It is also shown that the model selection methods performed better in large samples for a complex asymmetric data generating process than with a standard asymmetric data generating process. Except for complex models, AIC's performance did not make substantial gains in recovery rates as sample size increased. The research findings demonstrate the influence of model complexity in asymmetric price transmission model comparison and selection.

  14. Higher genus correlators for the complex matrix model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambjorn, J.; Kristhansen, C.F.; Makeenko, Y.M.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, the authors describe an iterative scheme which allows us to calculate any multi-loop correlator for the complex matrix model to any genus using only the first in the chain of loop equations. The method works for a completely general potential and the results contain no explicit reference to the couplings. The genus g contribution to the m-loop correlator depends on a finite number of parameters, namely at most 4g - 2 + m. The authors find the generating functional explicitly up to genus three. The authors show as well that the model is equivalent to an external field problem for the complex matrix model with a logarithmic potential

  15. Reduced Complexity Volterra Models for Nonlinear System Identification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hacıoğlu Rıfat

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A broad class of nonlinear systems and filters can be modeled by the Volterra series representation. However, its practical use in nonlinear system identification is sometimes limited due to the large number of parameters associated with the Volterra filter′s structure. The parametric complexity also complicates design procedures based upon such a model. This limitation for system identification is addressed in this paper using a Fixed Pole Expansion Technique (FPET within the Volterra model structure. The FPET approach employs orthonormal basis functions derived from fixed (real or complex pole locations to expand the Volterra kernels and reduce the number of estimated parameters. That the performance of FPET can considerably reduce the number of estimated parameters is demonstrated by a digital satellite channel example in which we use the proposed method to identify the channel dynamics. Furthermore, a gradient-descent procedure that adaptively selects the pole locations in the FPET structure is developed in the paper.

  16. Deciphering the complexity of acute inflammation using mathematical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vodovotz, Yoram

    2006-01-01

    Various stresses elicit an acute, complex inflammatory response, leading to healing but sometimes also to organ dysfunction and death. We constructed both equation-based models (EBM) and agent-based models (ABM) of various degrees of granularity--which encompass the dynamics of relevant cells, cytokines, and the resulting global tissue dysfunction--in order to begin to unravel these inflammatory interactions. The EBMs describe and predict various features of septic shock and trauma/hemorrhage (including the response to anthrax, preconditioning phenomena, and irreversible hemorrhage) and were used to simulate anti-inflammatory strategies in clinical trials. The ABMs that describe the interrelationship between inflammation and wound healing yielded insights into intestinal healing in necrotizing enterocolitis, vocal fold healing during phonotrauma, and skin healing in the setting of diabetic foot ulcers. Modeling may help in understanding the complex interactions among the components of inflammation and response to stress, and therefore aid in the development of novel therapies and diagnostics.

  17. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  18. Elastic Network Model of a Nuclear Transport Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, Patrick; Liu, Wing K.; Lee, Dockjin; Seo, Sangjae; Kim, Young-Jin; Kim, Moon K.

    2010-05-01

    The structure of Kap95p was obtained from the Protein Data Bank (www.pdb.org) and analyzed RanGTP plays an important role in both nuclear protein import and export cycles. In the nucleus, RanGTP releases macromolecular cargoes from importins and conversely facilitates cargo binding to exportins. Although the crystal structure of the nuclear import complex formed by importin Kap95p and RanGTP was recently identified, its molecular mechanism still remains unclear. To understand the relationship between structure and function of a nuclear transport complex, a structure-based mechanical model of Kap95p:RanGTP complex is introduced. In this model, a protein structure is simply modeled as an elastic network in which a set of coarse-grained point masses are connected by linear springs representing biochemical interactions at atomic level. Harmonic normal mode analysis (NMA) and anharmonic elastic network interpolation (ENI) are performed to predict the modes of vibrations and a feasible pathway between locked and unlocked conformations of Kap95p, respectively. Simulation results imply that the binding of RanGTP to Kap95p induces the release of the cargo in the nucleus as well as prevents any new cargo from attaching to the Kap95p:RanGTP complex.

  19. Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

    2014-12-19

    The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.

  20. BlenX-based compositional modeling of complex reaction mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judit Zámborszky

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Molecular interactions are wired in a fascinating way resulting in complex behavior of biological systems. Theoretical modeling provides a useful framework for understanding the dynamics and the function of such networks. The complexity of the biological networks calls for conceptual tools that manage the combinatorial explosion of the set of possible interactions. A suitable conceptual tool to attack complexity is compositionality, already successfully used in the process algebra field to model computer systems. We rely on the BlenX programming language, originated by the beta-binders process calculus, to specify and simulate high-level descriptions of biological circuits. The Gillespie's stochastic framework of BlenX requires the decomposition of phenomenological functions into basic elementary reactions. Systematic unpacking of complex reaction mechanisms into BlenX templates is shown in this study. The estimation/derivation of missing parameters and the challenges emerging from compositional model building in stochastic process algebras are discussed. A biological example on circadian clock is presented as a case study of BlenX compositionality.

  1. Untangling the Influences of Voluntary Running, Environmental Complexity, Social Housing and Stress on Adult Hippocampal Neurogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grégoire, Catherine-Alexandra; Bonenfant, David; Le Nguyen, Adalie; Aumont, Anne; Fernandes, Karl J. L.

    2014-01-01

    Environmental enrichment (EE) exerts powerful effects on brain physiology, and is widely used as an experimental and therapeutic tool. Typical EE paradigms are multifactorial, incorporating elements of physical exercise, environmental complexity, social interactions and stress, however the specific contributions of these variables have not been separable using conventional housing paradigms. Here, we evaluated the impacts of these individual variables on adult hippocampal neurogenesis by using a novel “Alternating EE” paradigm. For 4 weeks, adult male CD1 mice were alternated daily between two enriched environments; by comparing groups that differed in one of their two environments, the individual and combinatorial effects of EE variables could be resolved. The Alternating EE paradigm revealed that (1) voluntary running for 3 days/week was sufficient to increase both mitotic and post-mitotic stages of hippocampal neurogenesis, confirming the central importance of exercise; (2) a complex environment (comprised of both social interactions and rotated inanimate objects) had no effect on neurogenesis itself, but enhanced depolarization-induced c-Fos expression (attributable to social interactions) and buffered stress-induced plasma corticosterone levels (attributable to inanimate objects); and (3) neither social isolation, group housing, nor chronically increased levels of plasma corticosterone had a prolonged impact on neurogenesis. Mouse strain, handling and type of running apparatus were tested and excluded as potential confounding factors. These findings provide valuable insights into the relative effects of key EE variables on adult neurogenesis, and this “Alternating EE” paradigm represents a useful tool for exploring the contributions of individual EE variables to mechanisms of neural plasticity. PMID:24465980

  2. Febrile illness diagnostics and the malaria-industrial complex: a socio-environmental perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin Stoler

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global prioritization of single-disease eradication programs over improvements to basic diagnostic capacity in the Global South have left the world unprepared for epidemics of chikungunya, Ebola, Zika, and whatever lies on the horizon. The medical establishment is slowly realizing that in many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, particularly urban areas, up to a third of patients suffering from acute fever do not receive a correct diagnosis of their infection. Main body Malaria is the most common diagnosis for febrile patients in low-resource health care settings, and malaria misdiagnosis has soared due to the institutionalization of malaria as the primary febrile illness of SSA by international development organizations and national malaria control programs. This has inadvertently created a “malaria-industrial complex” and historically obstructed our complete understanding of the continent’s complex communicable disease epidemiology, which is currently dominated by a mélange of undiagnosed febrile illnesses. We synthesize interdisciplinary literature from Ghana to highlight the complexity of communicable disease care in SSA from biomedical, social, and environmental perspectives, and suggest a way forward. Conclusion A socio-environmental approach to acute febrile illness etiology, diagnostics, and management would lead to substantial health gains in Africa, including more efficient malaria control. Such an approach would also improve global preparedness for future epidemics of emerging pathogens such as chikungunya, Ebola, and Zika, all of which originated in SSA with limited baseline understanding of their epidemiology despite clinical recognition of these viruses for many decades. Impending ACT resistance, new vaccine delays, and climate change all beckon our attention to proper diagnosis of fevers in order to maximize limited health care resources.

  3. Untangling the influences of voluntary running, environmental complexity, social housing and stress on adult hippocampal neurogenesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine-Alexandra Grégoire

    Full Text Available Environmental enrichment (EE exerts powerful effects on brain physiology, and is widely used as an experimental and therapeutic tool. Typical EE paradigms are multifactorial, incorporating elements of physical exercise, environmental complexity, social interactions and stress, however the specific contributions of these variables have not been separable using conventional housing paradigms. Here, we evaluated the impacts of these individual variables on adult hippocampal neurogenesis by using a novel "Alternating EE" paradigm. For 4 weeks, adult male CD1 mice were alternated daily between two enriched environments; by comparing groups that differed in one of their two environments, the individual and combinatorial effects of EE variables could be resolved. The Alternating EE paradigm revealed that (1 voluntary running for 3 days/week was sufficient to increase both mitotic and post-mitotic stages of hippocampal neurogenesis, confirming the central importance of exercise; (2 a complex environment (comprised of both social interactions and rotated inanimate objects had no effect on neurogenesis itself, but enhanced depolarization-induced c-Fos expression (attributable to social interactions and buffered stress-induced plasma corticosterone levels (attributable to inanimate objects; and (3 neither social isolation, group housing, nor chronically increased levels of plasma corticosterone had a prolonged impact on neurogenesis. Mouse strain, handling and type of running apparatus were tested and excluded as potential confounding factors. These findings provide valuable insights into the relative effects of key EE variables on adult neurogenesis, and this "Alternating EE" paradigm represents a useful tool for exploring the contributions of individual EE variables to mechanisms of neural plasticity.

  4. Sparse modeling of spatial environmental variables associated with asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Timothy S; Gangnon, Ronald E; David Page, C; Buckingham, William R; Tandias, Aman; Cowan, Kelly J; Tomasallo, Carrie D; Arndt, Brian G; Hanrahan, Lawrence P; Guilbert, Theresa W

    2015-02-01

    Geographically distributed environmental factors influence the burden of diseases such as asthma. Our objective was to identify sparse environmental variables associated with asthma diagnosis gathered from a large electronic health record (EHR) dataset while controlling for spatial variation. An EHR dataset from the University of Wisconsin's Family Medicine, Internal Medicine and Pediatrics Departments was obtained for 199,220 patients aged 5-50years over a three-year period. Each patient's home address was geocoded to one of 3456 geographic census block groups. Over one thousand block group variables were obtained from a commercial database. We developed a Sparse Spatial Environmental Analysis (SASEA). Using this method, the environmental variables were first dimensionally reduced with sparse principal component analysis. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling was then used to identify block group variables associated with asthma from sparse principal components. The addresses of patients from the EHR dataset were distributed throughout the majority of Wisconsin's geography. Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling captured spatial variation of asthma. Four sparse principal components identified via model selection consisted of food at home, dog ownership, household size, and disposable income variables. In rural areas, dog ownership and renter occupied housing units from significant sparse principal components were associated with asthma. Our main contribution is the incorporation of sparsity in spatial modeling. SASEA sequentially added sparse principal components to Logistic thin plate regression spline modeling. This method allowed association of geographically distributed environmental factors with asthma using EHR and environmental datasets. SASEA can be applied to other diseases with environmental risk factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Flexible Environmental Modeling with Python and Open - GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pryet, Alexandre; Atteia, Olivier; Delottier, Hugo; Cousquer, Yohann

    2015-04-01

    Numerical modeling now represents a prominent task of environmental studies. During the last decades, numerous commercial programs have been made available to environmental modelers. These software applications offer user-friendly graphical user interfaces that allow an efficient management of many case studies. However, they suffer from a lack of flexibility and closed-source policies impede source code reviewing and enhancement for original studies. Advanced modeling studies require flexible tools capable of managing thousands of model runs for parameter optimization, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. In addition, there is a growing need for the coupling of various numerical models associating, for instance, groundwater flow modeling to multi-species geochemical reactions. Researchers have produced hundreds of open-source powerful command line programs. However, there is a need for a flexible graphical user interface allowing an efficient processing of geospatial data that comes along any environmental study. Here, we present the advantages of using the free and open-source Qgis platform and the Python scripting language for conducting environmental modeling studies. The interactive graphical user interface is first used for the visualization and pre-processing of input geospatial datasets. Python scripting language is then employed for further input data processing, call to one or several models, and post-processing of model outputs. Model results are eventually sent back to the GIS program, processed and visualized. This approach combines the advantages of interactive graphical interfaces and the flexibility of Python scripting language for data processing and model calls. The numerous python modules available facilitate geospatial data processing and numerical analysis of model outputs. Once input data has been prepared with the graphical user interface, models may be run thousands of times from the command line with sequential or parallel calls. We

  6. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Efficient Simulation Modeling of an Integrated High-Level-Waste Processing Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, Michael V.; Paul, Pran K.

    2000-01-01

    An integrated computational tool named the Production Planning Model (ProdMod) has been developed to simulate the operation of the entire high-level-waste complex (HLW) at the Savannah River Site (SRS) over its full life cycle. ProdMod is used to guide SRS management in operating the waste complex in an economically efficient and environmentally sound manner. SRS HLW operations are modeled using coupled algebraic equations. The dynamic nature of plant processes is modeled in the form of a linear construct in which the time dependence is implicit. Batch processes are modeled in discrete event-space, while continuous processes are modeled in time-space. The ProdMod methodology maps between event-space and time-space such that the inherent mathematical discontinuities in batch process simulation are avoided without sacrificing any of the necessary detail in the batch recipe steps. Modeling the processes separately in event- and time-space using linear constructs, and then coupling the two spaces, has accelerated the speed of simulation compared to a typical dynamic simulation. The ProdMod simulator models have been validated against operating data and other computer codes. Case studies have demonstrated the usefulness of the ProdMod simulator in developing strategies that demonstrate significant cost savings in operating the SRS HLW complex and in verifying the feasibility of newly proposed processes

  8. Development of Dynamic Spent Nuclear Fuel Environmental Effect Analysis Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Chang Joon; Ko, Won Il; Lee, Ho Hee; Cho, Dong Keun; Park, Chang Je

    2010-07-01

    The dynamic environmental effect evaluation model for spent nuclear fuel has been developed and incorporated into the system dynamic DANESS code. First, the spent nuclear fuel isotope decay model was modeled. Then, the environmental effects were modeled through short-term decay heat model, short-term radioactivity model, and long-term heat load model. By using the developed model, the Korean once-through nuclear fuel cycles was analyzed. The once-through fuel cycle analysis was modeled based on the Korean 'National Energy Basic Plan' up to 2030 and a postulated nuclear demand growth rate until 2150. From the once-through results, it is shown that the nuclear power demand would be ∼70 GWe and the total amount of the spent fuel accumulated by 2150 would be ∼168000 t. If the disposal starts from 2060, the short-term decay heat of Cs-137 and Sr-90 isotopes are W and 1.8x10 6 W in 2100. Also, the total long-term heat load in 2100 will be 4415 MW-y. From the calculation results, it was found that the developed model is very convenient and simple for evaluation of the environmental effect of the spent nuclear fuel

  9. An Environmental Management Model of Thermal Waters in Entre Ríos Province, Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pablo, Mársico Daniel; Luís, Díaz Eduardo; Ivana, Zecca; Oscar, Dallacosta; Antonio, Paz-González

    2015-04-01

    Deep exploratory drillings, i.e. those with more than 500 meters depth, have been performed in the Entre Ríos province, Argentina, in order to ascertain the presence of thermal water. Drilling began in 1994, and until now there have been 18 polls with very variable results in terms of mineralization, resource flow, and temperature. The aim of this study was to present a management model, which should allow operators of thermal complexes to further develop procedures for safeguarding the biodiversity of the ecosystems involved, both during exploration and exploitation activities. The environmental management Plan proposed is constituted by a set of technical procedures that are formulated and should be performed during the stages of exploration and exploitation of the resource, and consists of: environmental monitoring, environmental audit, public information and contingency programs. This Plan describes the measures and proposals aimed at protecting environmental quality in the area of influence of a thermal complex project, ensuring that its execution remains environmentally responsibly, and allowing implementation of specific actions to prevent or correct environmental impacts, as predicted in the evaluation of the Environmental Program. The audit of environmental impact includes and takes into account natural factors, such as water, soil, atmosphere, flora and fauna, and also cultural factors. The technical audit Plan was prepared in order to get a systematic structure and organization of the verification process, and also with regard to document the degree of implementation of the proposed mitigation measures. Finally, an environmental contingency program was implemented, and its objective was to consider the safeguarding of life and its natural environment. Thus, a guide has been developed with the main actions to be taken on a contingency, since forecast increases the efficiency of the response. The methodology developed here was adopted as the procedure

  10. Suitability Analyses of Wind Power Generation Complex in South Korea by Using Environmental & Social Criterias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Y.; Jeon, S. W.; Seong, M.

    2017-12-01

    In case of wind-power, one of the most economical renewable energy resources, it is highly emerged owing to the strategic aspect of the response of environmental restriction and strong energy security as well as the upcoming motivation for huge industrial growth in the future. According to the fourth Fundamental Renewable Energy Plan, declared in Sep. 2014, the government instituted the scheme to minimize the proportion of previous RDF(Refused Derived Fuel) till 2035, promoting the solar power and wind power as the core energy for the next generation. Especially in South Korea, it is somewhat desperate to suggest the standard for environmentally optimal locations of wind power setup accompanied with the prevention of disasters from the climate changes. This is because that in case of South Korea, most of suitable places for Wind power complex are in the ridge of the mountains, where is highly invaluable sites as the pool of bio-resources and ecosystem conservations. In this research, we are to focus on the analysis of suitable locations for wind farm site which is relevant to the meteorological and geological factors, by utilizing GIS techniques through the whole South Korea. Ultimately, this analyses are to minimize the adverse effect derived from the current development of wind power in mountain ridges and the time for negotiation for wind power advance.

  11. The determination of arsenic, selenium, antimony, and tin in complex environmental samples by hydride generation AAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, D.; Beach, C.

    1990-01-01

    Hydride generation techniques are used routinely for the determination of As, Se, Sb and Sn in water samples. Advantages include high sensitivity, simplicity, and relative freedom from interferences. Continuous-flow designs greatly reduce analysis time as well as improve precision and allow for automation. However the accurate analysis of more complex environmental samples such as industrial sludges, soil samples, river sediments, and fly ash remains difficult. Numerous contributing factors influence the accuracy of the hydride technique. Sample digestion methods and sample preparation procedures are of critical importance. The digestion must adequately solubilize the elements of interest without loss by volatilization. Sample preparation procedures that guarantee the proper analyte oxidation state and eliminate the nitric acid and inter-element interferences are needed. In this study, difficult environmental samples were analyzed for As, Se, Sb, and Sn by continuous flow hydride generation. Sample preparation methods were optimized to eliminate interferences. The results of spike recovery studies will be presented. Data from the analysis of the same samples by graphite furnace AAS will be presented for comparison of accuracy, precision, and analysis time

  12. Radiological and environmental safety aspects of uranium fuel fabrication plants at Nuclear Fuel Complex, Hyderabad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viswanathan, S.; Surya Rao, B.; Lakshmanan, A.R.; Krishna Rao, T.

    1991-01-01

    Nuclear Fuel Complex, Hyderabad manufactures uranium dioxide fuel assemblies for PHWRs and BWRs operating in India. Starting materials are magnesium diuranate received from UCIL, Jaduguda and imported UF. Both of these are converted to UO 2 pellets by identical chemical processes and mechanical compacting. Since the uranium handled here is free of daughter product activities, external radiation is not a problem. Inhalation of airborne U compounds is one of the main source of exposure. Engineered protective measures like enclosures around U bearing powder handling equipment and local exhausts reduce worker's exposure. Installation of pre-filters, wet rotoclones and electrostatic precipitators in the ventillation system reduces the release of U into the environment. The criticality hazard in handling slightly enriched uranium is very low due to the built-in control based on geometry and inventory. Where airborne uranium is significant, workers are provided with protective respirators. The workers are regularly monitored for external exposure and also for internal exposure. The environmental releases from the NFC facility is well controlled. Soil, water and air from the NFC environment are routinely collected and analysed for all the possible pollutants. The paper describes the Health Physics experience during the last five years on occupational exposures and on environmental surveillance which reveals the high quality of safety observed in our nuclear fuel fabricating installations. (author). 4 refs., 6 tabs

  13. Modeling the Environmental Impact of Air Traffic Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Neil

    2011-01-01

    There is increased interest to understand and mitigate the impacts of air traffic on the climate, since greenhouse gases, nitrogen oxides, and contrails generated by air traffic can have adverse impacts on the climate. The models described in this presentation are useful for quantifying these impacts and for studying alternative environmentally aware operational concepts. These models have been developed by leveraging and building upon existing simulation and optimization techniques developed for the design of efficient traffic flow management strategies. Specific enhancements to the existing simulation and optimization techniques include new models that simulate aircraft fuel flow, emissions and contrails. To ensure that these new models are beneficial to the larger climate research community, the outputs of these new models are compatible with existing global climate modeling tools like the FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool.

  14. Evaluation of uncertainties in selected environmental dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.

    1979-01-01

    Compliance with standards of radiation dose to the general public has necessitated the use of dispersion models to predict radionuclide concentrations in the environment due to releases from nuclear facilities. Because these models are only approximations of reality and because of inherent variations in the input parameters used in these models, their predictions are subject to uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty is necessary to assess the adequacy of these models for use in determining compliance with protection standards. This paper characterizes the capabilities of several dispersion models to predict accurately pollutant concentrations in environmental media. Three types of models are discussed: aquatic or surface water transport models, atmospheric transport models, and terrestrial and aquatic food chain models. Using data published primarily by model users, model predictions are compared to observations

  15. Building Better Ecological Machines: Complexity Theory and Alternative Economic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jess Bier

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Computer models of the economy are regularly used to predict economic phenomena and set financial policy. However, the conventional macroeconomic models are currently being reimagined after they failed to foresee the current economic crisis, the outlines of which began to be understood only in 2007-2008. In this article we analyze the most prominent of this reimagining: Agent-Based models (ABMs. ABMs are an influential alternative to standard economic models, and they are one focus of complexity theory, a discipline that is a more open successor to the conventional chaos and fractal modeling of the 1990s. The modelers who create ABMs claim that their models depict markets as ecologies, and that they are more responsive than conventional models that depict markets as machines. We challenge this presentation, arguing instead that recent modeling efforts amount to the creation of models as ecological machines. Our paper aims to contribute to an understanding of the organizing metaphors of macroeconomic models, which we argue is relevant conceptually and politically, e.g., when models are used for regulatory purposes.

  16. Modelling and simulation of gas explosions in complex geometries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saeter, Olav

    1998-12-31

    This thesis presents a three-dimensional Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code (EXSIM94) for modelling and simulation of gas explosions in complex geometries. It gives the theory and validates the following sub-models : (1) the flow resistance and turbulence generation model for densely packed regions, (2) the flow resistance and turbulence generation model for single objects, and (3) the quasi-laminar combustion model. It is found that a simple model for flow resistance and turbulence generation in densely packed beds is able to reproduce the medium and large scale MERGE explosion experiments of the Commission of European Communities (CEC) within a band of factor 2. The model for a single representation is found to predict explosion pressure in better agreement with the experiments with a modified k-{epsilon} model. This modification also gives a slightly improved grid independence for realistic gas explosion approaches. One laminar model is found unsuitable for gas explosion modelling because of strong grid dependence. Another laminar model is found to be relatively grid independent and to work well in harmony with the turbulent combustion model. The code is validated against 40 realistic gas explosion experiments. It is relatively grid independent in predicting explosion pressure in different offshore geometries. It can predict the influence of ignition point location, vent arrangements, different geometries, scaling effects and gas reactivity. The validation study concludes with statistical and uncertainty analyses of the code performance. 98 refs., 96 figs, 12 tabs.

  17. SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO CREATION OF COMPLEX CONTROL SYSTEM MODEL FOR THE STREAMS OF BUILDING WASTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2011 in Russia a Strategy of Production Development of Construction Materials and Industrial Housing Construction for the period up to 2020 was approved as one of strategic documents in the sphere of construction. In the process of this strategy development all the needs of construction complex were taken into account in all the spheres of economy, including transport system. The strategy also underlined, that the construction industry is a great basis for use and application in secondary economic turnover of dangerous waste from different production branches. This gives possibility to produce construction products of recycled materials and at the same time to solve the problem of environmental protection. The article considers and analyzes scientific methodological approaches to creation of a model of a complex control system for the streams of building waste in frames of organizing uniform ecologically safe and economically effective complex system of waste treatment in country regions.

  18. Consideration of environmental pollution in MESSAGE-type energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rentz, O.; Hanicke, T.; Hempelmann, R.

    1981-10-01

    Macroeconomic and microeconomic data are acquired and processed to obtain a model-adequate data base. The MESSAGE model is adapted and implemented. Modifications for specific problems are described. Aspects of environmental pollution are considered for the various energy supply concepts. The model conception is flexible with regard to new technologies, in particular in the field of primary and secondary energy sources, and to cogeneration products (district heat, electric power). (HP) [de

  19. Bridging Mechanistic and Phenomenological Models of Complex Biological Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Transtrum, Mark K; Qiu, Peng

    2016-05-01

    The inherent complexity of biological systems gives rise to complicated mechanistic models with a large number of parameters. On the other hand, the collective behavior of these systems can often be characterized by a relatively small number of phenomenological parameters. We use the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) as a tool for deriving simple phenomenological models from complicated mechanistic models. The resulting models are not black boxes, but remain expressed in terms of the microscopic parameters. In this way, we explicitly connect the macroscopic and microscopic descriptions, characterize the equivalence class of distinct systems exhibiting the same range of collective behavior, and identify the combinations of components that function as tunable control knobs for the behavior. We demonstrate the procedure for adaptation behavior exhibited by the EGFR pathway. From a 48 parameter mechanistic model, the system can be effectively described by a single adaptation parameter τ characterizing the ratio of time scales for the initial response and recovery time of the system which can in turn be expressed as a combination of microscopic reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and biochemical concentrations. The situation is not unlike modeling in physics in which microscopically complex processes can often be renormalized into simple phenomenological models with only a few effective parameters. The proposed method additionally provides a mechanistic explanation for non-universal features of the behavior.

  20. LC-MS/MS signal suppression effects in the analysis of pesticides in complex environmental matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, B K; Hercules, D M; Gusev, A I

    2001-02-01

    The application of LC separation and mobile phase additives in addressing LC-MS/MS matrix signal suppression effects for the analysis of pesticides in a complex environmental matrix was investigated. It was shown that signal suppression is most significant for analytes eluting early in the LC-MS analysis. Introduction of different buffers (e.g. ammonium formate, ammonium hydroxide, formic acid) into the LC mobile phase was effective in improving signal correlation between the matrix and standard samples. The signal improvement is dependent on buffer concentration as well as LC separation of the matrix components. The application of LC separation alone was not effective in addressing suppression effects when characterizing complex matrix samples. Overloading of the LC column by matrix components was found to significantly contribute to analyte-matrix co-elution and suppression of signal. This signal suppression effect can be efficiently compensated by 2D LC (LC-LC) separation techniques. The effectiveness of buffers and LC separation in improving signal correlation between standard and matrix samples is discussed.

  1. Approaches for the environmental evaluation of two swamp complexes of the Momposina depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caballero, Humberto; Durango, Consuelo

    1998-01-01

    The swamp complexes of the Momposina depression in the lower Magdalena River have been submitted to irrational exploitation, transformation and contamination mainly since the beginning of the century, process that has be en getting worse in the last decade. The most evident manifestation of the environmental deterioration is expressed by the drastic reduction of fishing, with important socio-economic effects to the population that lives from this source. The most notorious causes of the actual state of the ecosystem were detected, and some preliminary considerations for its management are presented. However, due to the modifications that the complexes have suffered (closure of the natural sewer, construction of jarillones, modifications of the internal water flows and sediments, over exploitation, of fish and herpetofauna), the deterioration of the limnologic conditions is moderated, which allows to begin recuperation plans. The major impacts were observed in the fauna of birds and reptiles associated to the swamps; the decrease of the ictics populations seems to be related to the strong impact generated by the fishing action used and the interruption of the natural cycles of fish. The possibility of rebuilding the communication swamp-river should be studied with care because it seems the system has arrived to new conditions. The re-opening of the sewers could mean a new unbalanced condition represented mainly by the contamination coming from the Magdalena River

  2. Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: Agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, T.S.; Jensen, J.D.; Hasler, B.

    2007-01-01

    Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool for evaluating the progress towards sustainable development by analysing the effects on sustainability indicators of the general economic growth and implementation of national action...... economic model, environmental satellite models of energy and waste related emissions contributing to climate change and acidification. The model extension allows the main Danish contribution to climate change and acidification to be modelled. The existing model system is extended by environmental satellite...... models, in which emission coefficients are linked to economic activity variables as modelled by the agricultural sector model ESMERALDA. Agricultural emission sources related to the activity variables in ESMERALDA are mapped in order to develop the environmental satellite models and the development...

  3. A system for environmental protection. Reference dose models for fauna and flora

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pentreath, R.J.; Woodhead, D.S.

    2000-01-01

    Ideas have already been published on how the current problems relating to environmental protection could be explicitly addressed. One of the basic cornerstones of the proposed system is that of the use of reference dose models for fauna and flora, in a manner analogous to those used for the human species. The concept is that, for a number of both aquatic and terrestrial fauna and flora types, 'reference' dose models, and dose per unit (internal and external) exposure tables, could be compiled. These would then be used to draw broad conclusions on the likely effects for such organisms in relation to three broad environment end points of concern: life shortening; impairment of reproductive capacity; and scorable, cytogenetic damage. The level of complexity of the dose models needs to be commensurate with the morphological complexity of the modelled organism, its size, and the data bases which are either available or could be reasonably obtained. The most basic models considered are either solid ellipsoids or spheres, with fixed dimensions. Secondary models contain internal, but relatively simple geometric features representative of those key organs or tissues for which more precise estimates of dose are required. Their level of complexity is also a function of different internal and external sources of radiation, and expected differences in radiosensitivities. Tertiary models -of greater complexity- are only considered to be of value for higher vertebrates. The potential derivation and use of all three sets of models is briefly discussed. (author)

  4. SeSBench - An initiative to benchmark reactive transport models for environmental subsurface processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Diederik

    2017-04-01

    As soil functions are governed by a multitude of interacting hydrological, geochemical and biological processes, simulation tools coupling mathematical models for interacting processes are needed. Coupled reactive transport models are a typical example of such coupled tools mainly focusing on hydrological and geochemical coupling (see e.g. Steefel et al., 2015). Mathematical and numerical complexity for both the tool itself or of the specific conceptual model can increase rapidly. Therefore, numerical verification of such type of models is a prerequisite for guaranteeing reliability and confidence and qualifying simulation tools and approaches for any further model application. In 2011, a first SeSBench -Subsurface Environmental Simulation Benchmarking- workshop was held in Berkeley (USA) followed by four other ones. The objective is to benchmark subsurface environmental simulation models and methods with a current focus on reactive transport processes. The final outcome was a special issue in Computational Geosciences (2015, issue 3 - Reactive transport benchmarks for subsurface environmental simulation) with a collection of 11 benchmarks. Benchmarks, proposed by the participants of the workshops, should be relevant for environmental or geo-engineering applications; the latter were mostly related to radioactive waste disposal issues - excluding benchmarks defined for pure mathematical reasons. Another important feature is the tiered approach within a benchmark with the definition of a single principle problem and different sub problems. The latter typically benchmarked individual or simplified processes (e.g. inert solute transport, simplified geochemical conceptual model) or geometries (e.g. batch or one-dimensional, homogeneous). Finally, three codes should be involved into a benchmark. The SeSBench initiative contributes to confidence building for applying reactive transport codes. Furthermore, it illustrates the use of those type of models for different

  5. An Agent Model Integrating an Adaptive Model for Environmental Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.; Umair, M.

    2011-01-01

    The environments in which agents are used often may be described by dynamical models, e.g., in the form of a set of differential equations. In this paper, an agent model is proposed that can perform model-based reasoning about the environment, based on a numerical (dynamical system) model of the

  6. Evaluating the response of complex systems to environmental threats: the Σ II method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corynen, G.C.

    1983-05-01

    The Σ II method was developed to model and compute the probabilistic performance of systems that operate in a threatening environment. Although we emphasize the vulnerability of complex systems to earthquakes and to electromagnetic threats such as EMP (electromagnetic pulse), the method applies in general to most large-scale systems or networks that are embedded in a potentially harmful environment. Other methods exist for obtaining system vulnerability, but their complexity increases exponentially as the size of systems is increased. The complexity of the Σ II method is polynomial, and accurate solutions are now possible for problems for which current methods require the use of rough statistical bounds, confidence statements, and other approximations. For super-large problems, where the costs of precise answers may be prohibitive, a desired accuracy can be specified, and the Σ II algorithms will halt when that accuracy has been reached. We summarize the results of a theoretical complexity analysis - which is reported elsewhere - and validate the theory with computer experiments conducted both on worst-case academic problems and on more reasonable problems occurring in practice. Finally, we compare our method with the exact methods of Abraham and Nakazawa, and with current bounding methods, and we demonstrate the computational efficiency and accuracy of Σ II

  7. Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'sullivan, David J.; O'Keeffe, Gary; Fennell, Peter; Gleeson, James

    2015-09-01

    The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010), adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the “complex contagion” effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to “simple” contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory) regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010), to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

  8. Mathematical modelling of complex contagion on clustered networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J. P. O'Sullivan

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The spreading of behavior, such as the adoption of a new innovation, is influenced bythe structure of social networks that interconnect the population. In the experiments of Centola (Science, 2010, adoption of new behavior was shown to spread further and faster across clustered-lattice networks than across corresponding random networks. This implies that the complex contagion effects of social reinforcement are important in such diffusion, in contrast to simple contagion models of disease-spread which predict that epidemics would grow more efficiently on random networks than on clustered networks. To accurately model complex contagion on clustered networks remains a challenge because the usual assumptions (e.g. of mean-field theory regarding tree-like networks are invalidated by the presence of triangles in the network; the triangles are, however, crucial to the social reinforcement mechanism, which posits an increased probability of a person adopting behavior that has been adopted by two or more neighbors. In this paper we modify the analytical approach that was introduced by Hebert-Dufresne et al. (Phys. Rev. E, 2010, to study disease-spread on clustered networks. We show how the approximation method can be adapted to a complex contagion model, and confirm the accuracy of the method with numerical simulations. The analytical results of the model enable us to quantify the level of social reinforcement that is required to observe—as in Centola’s experiments—faster diffusion on clustered topologies than on random networks.

  9. Effects of Environmental Air Pollution on Pulmonary Function Level of Residents in Korean Industrial Complexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eunju Hong

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to identify environmental air pollution adversely affecting pulmonary function among a community-based general population living in Korean industrial complexes. A total of 1963 residents participated in a pulmonary function test (PFT. The sample population consisted of an exposed group (n = 1487 living within a radius of 5 km of industrial complexes and a control group (n = 476 living over a radius of 10 km from the industrial complexes in Gwangyang and Yeosu cities. PFT results were calculated for each resident of the study population. On-site questionnaire surveys with face-to-face interviews were also conducted to collect more detailed information on personal lifestyles, medical history, exposure to air pollution, and respiratory disease and related symptoms. A total of 486 measured samples were collected by eight automated air-monitoring stations installed in four counties of Gwangyang and four counties of Yeosu in South Korea from January 2006 to February 2007. Mean levels of SO2 (0.012 ppm, CO (0.648 ppm, NO2 (0.02 ppm, O3 (0.034 ppm, and PM10 (43.07 μg/m3, collected within a radius of 5 km, were significantly higher than those collected over a radius of 10 km from Gwangyang and Yeosu industrial complexes. Prevalence odds ratio (OR of abnormal pulmonary function in the exposed group of residents (<5 km was elevated at 1.24 (95% CI 0.71–1.96, but not statistically significant (p > 0.05. In multiple linear regression analysis, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1 and forced vital capacity (FVC levels significantly declined as SO2, CO, and O3 levels increased when adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI, alcohol, smoking, secondhand smoke, and respiratory disease and related symptoms (n = 1963 (p < 0.05. These results suggest that exposure to air pollution affects pulmonary function levels of residents living in Korean industrial complexes.

  10. An integrated model for simulating nitrogen trading in an agricultural catchment with complex hydrogeology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, T J; Rutherford, J C; Kerr, S C; Smeaton, D C; Palliser, C C

    2013-09-30

    Nitrogen loads to several New Zealand lakes are dominated by nonpoint runoff from pastoral farmland which adversely affects lake water quality. A 'cap and trade' scheme is being considered to help meet targets set for nitrogen loads to Lake Rotorua, and a numerical model, NTRADER, has been developed to simulate and compare alternative schemes. NTRADER models both the geophysics of nitrogen generation and transport, including groundwater lag times, and the economics of 'cap and trade' schemes. It integrates the output from several existing models, including a farm-scale nitrogen leaching and abatement model, a farm-scale management economic model, and a catchment-scale nitrogen transport model. This paper details modeling methods and compares possible trading program design features for the Lake Rotorua catchment. Model simulations demonstrate how a cap and trade program could be used to effectively achieve challenging environmental goals in the targeted catchment. However, results also show that, due to complex hydrogeology, satisfactory environmental outcomes may be not achieved unless groundwater lag times are incorporated into the regulatory scheme. One way to do this, as demonstrated here, would be to explicitly include lag times in the cap and trade program. The utility of the model is further demonstrated by quantifying relative differences in abatement costs across potential regulatory schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Evaluating the reliability of predictions made using environmental transfer models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The development and application of mathematical models for predicting the consequences of releases of radionuclides into the environment from normal operations in the nuclear fuel cycle and in hypothetical accident conditions has increased dramatically in the last two decades. This Safety Practice publication has been prepared to provide guidance on the available methods for evaluating the reliability of environmental transfer model predictions. It provides a practical introduction of the subject and a particular emphasis has been given to worked examples in the text. It is intended to supplement existing IAEA publications on environmental assessment methodology. 60 refs, 17 figs, 12 tabs

  12. The semiotics of control and modeling relations in complex systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, C

    2001-01-01

    We provide a conceptual analysis of ideas and principles from the systems theory discourse which underlie Pattee's semantic or semiotic closure, which is itself foundational for a school of theoretical biology derived from systems theory and cybernetics, and is now being related to biological semiotics and explicated in the relational biological school of Rashevsky and Rosen. Atomic control systems and models are described as the canonical forms of semiotic organization, sharing measurement relations, but differing topologically in that control systems are circularly and models linearly related to their environments. Computation in control systems is introduced, motivating hierarchical decomposition, hybrid modeling and control systems, and anticipatory or model-based control. The semiotic relations in complex control systems are described in terms of relational constraints, and rules and laws are distinguished as contingent and necessary functional entailments, respectively. Finally, selection as a meta-level of constraint is introduced as the necessary condition for semantic relations in control systems and models.

  13. Predicting the future completing models of observed complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Abarbanel, Henry

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the Future: Completing Models of Observed Complex Systems provides a general framework for the discussion of model building and validation across a broad spectrum of disciplines. This is accomplished through the development of an exact path integral for use in transferring information from observations to a model of the observed system. Through many illustrative examples drawn from models in neuroscience, fluid dynamics, geosciences, and nonlinear electrical circuits, the concepts are exemplified in detail. Practical numerical methods for approximate evaluations of the path integral are explored, and their use in designing experiments and determining a model's consistency with observations is investigated. Using highly instructive examples, the problems of data assimilation and the means to treat them are clearly illustrated. This book will be useful for students and practitioners of physics, neuroscience, regulatory networks, meteorology and climate science, network dynamics, fluid dynamics, and o...

  14. Student Learning of Complex Earth Systems: A Model to Guide Development of Student Expertise in Problem-Solving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holder, Lauren N.; Scherer, Hannah H.; Herbert, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    Engaging students in problem-solving concerning environmental issues in near-surface complex Earth systems involves developing student conceptualization of the Earth as a system and applying that scientific knowledge to the problems using practices that model those used by professionals. In this article, we review geoscience education research…

  15. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  16. A model of the environmental impacts of hydropower projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemppainen, T.; Haemaelaeinen, I.

    1992-01-01

    The aim was to create a model of the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects in Finland. To illustrate the effects of hydropower projects a checklist in the form of matrice was constructed. In this matrice all issues that could be significant in future hydropower projects were collected. Stable physical environmental changes are the starting-point for this matrice. The temporary change of hydropower constructions have also been under consideration. These are mainly environmental changes during construction. In chapter two the effects of hydropower modernization and extension projects physical environmental changes were examined. In chapter three the matrice was applied to some example cases. The cases were chosen to represent future hydropower projects. In addition these example cases represent urban areas, rural areas and uninhabited areas. The example cases were the extension of Tainionkoski hydropower plant at Vuoksi river, the modernization of Aeetsae power plant at Kokemaeenjoki river, the modernization of Stadsfors power plant at Lapuanjoki river in the centre of Uusikaarlepyy town and the construction of Kaitfors power plant at Perhonjoki river. Conclusions from usability of the model can be drawn on the ground of the example cases. The purpose of the model is to produce a checklist of estimated environmental effects in hydropower project of various kinds. Examination of issues within the model depends on local circumstances. Endangered animal and plant species, for example, can be studied and estimated only if endangered animal and plant species exist in the area of hydropower plant. Furthermore, the direction and extent of environmental effects depend on the local circumstances. The model is mainly a checklist of environmental effects caused by hydropower plant projects

  17. An Ontology for Modeling Complex Inter-relational Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wautelet, Yves; Neysen, Nicolas; Kolp, Manuel

    This paper presents an ontology for organizational modeling through multiple complementary aspects. The primary goal of the ontology is to dispose of an adequate set of related concepts for studying complex organizations involved in a lot of relationships at the same time. In this paper, we define complex organizations as networked organizations involved in a market eco-system that are playing several roles simultaneously. In such a context, traditional approaches focus on the macro analytic level of transactions; this is supplemented here with a micro analytic study of the actors' rationale. At first, the paper overviews enterprise ontologies literature to position our proposal and exposes its contributions and limitations. The ontology is then brought to an advanced level of formalization: a meta-model in the form of a UML class diagram allows to overview the ontology concepts and their relationships which are formally defined. Finally, the paper presents the case study on which the ontology has been validated.

  18. A model evaluation checklist for process-based environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson-Blake, Leah

    2015-04-01

    Mechanistic catchment-scale phosphorus models appear to perform poorly where diffuse sources dominate. The reasons for this were investigated for one commonly-applied model, the INtegrated model of CAtchment Phosphorus (INCA-P). Model output was compared to 18 months of daily water quality monitoring data in a small agricultural catchment in Scotland, and model structure, key model processes and internal model responses were examined. Although the model broadly reproduced dissolved phosphorus dynamics, it struggled with particulates. The reasons for poor performance were explored, together with ways in which improvements could be made. The process of critiquing and assessing model performance was then generalised to provide a broadly-applicable model evaluation checklist, incorporating: (1) Calibration challenges, relating to difficulties in thoroughly searching a high-dimensional parameter space and in selecting appropriate means of evaluating model performance. In this study, for example, model simplification was identified as a necessary improvement to reduce the number of parameters requiring calibration, whilst the traditionally-used Nash Sutcliffe model performance statistic was not able to discriminate between realistic and unrealistic model simulations, and alternative statistics were needed. (2) Data limitations, relating to a lack of (or uncertainty in) input data, data to constrain model parameters, data for model calibration and testing, and data to test internal model processes. In this study, model reliability could be improved by addressing all four kinds of data limitation. For example, there was insufficient surface water monitoring data for model testing against an independent dataset to that used in calibration, whilst additional monitoring of groundwater and effluent phosphorus inputs would help distinguish between alternative plausible model parameterisations. (3) Model structural inadequacies, whereby model structure may inadequately represent

  19. A computational framework for modeling targets as complex adaptive systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Eugene; Santos, Eunice E.; Korah, John; Murugappan, Vairavan; Subramanian, Suresh

    2017-05-01

    Modeling large military targets is a challenge as they can be complex systems encompassing myriad combinations of human, technological, and social elements that interact, leading to complex behaviors. Moreover, such targets have multiple components and structures, extending across multiple spatial and temporal scales, and are in a state of change, either in response to events in the environment or changes within the system. Complex adaptive system (CAS) theory can help in capturing the dynamism, interactions, and more importantly various emergent behaviors, displayed by the targets. However, a key stumbling block is incorporating information from various intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) sources, while dealing with the inherent uncertainty, incompleteness and time criticality of real world information. To overcome these challenges, we present a probabilistic reasoning network based framework called complex adaptive Bayesian Knowledge Base (caBKB). caBKB is a rigorous, overarching and axiomatic framework that models two key processes, namely information aggregation and information composition. While information aggregation deals with the union, merger and concatenation of information and takes into account issues such as source reliability and information inconsistencies, information composition focuses on combining information components where such components may have well defined operations. Since caBKBs can explicitly model the relationships between information pieces at various scales, it provides unique capabilities such as the ability to de-aggregate and de-compose information for detailed analysis. Using a scenario from the Network Centric Operations (NCO) domain, we will describe how our framework can be used for modeling targets with a focus on methodologies for quantifying NCO performance metrics.

  20. Fundamentals of complex networks models, structures and dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Guanrong; Li, Xiang

    2014-01-01

    Complex networks such as the Internet, WWW, transportationnetworks, power grids, biological neural networks, and scientificcooperation networks of all kinds provide challenges for futuretechnological development. In particular, advanced societies havebecome dependent on large infrastructural networks to an extentbeyond our capability to plan (modeling) and to operate (control).The recent spate of collapses in power grids and ongoing virusattacks on the Internet illustrate the need for knowledge aboutmodeling, analysis of behaviors, optimized planning and performancecontrol in such networks. F

  1. Model Complexities of Shallow Networks Representing Highly Varying Functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kůrková, Věra; Sanguineti, M.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 171, 1 January (2016), s. 598-604 ISSN 0925-2312 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD13002 Grant - others:grant for Visiting Professors(IT) GNAMPA-INdAM Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shallow networks * model complexity * highly varying functions * Chernoff bound * perceptrons * Gaussian kernel units Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 3.317, year: 2016

  2. Interacting with complex systems. Models and games for a sustainable economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Vries, H.J.M.

    2010-09-15

    In the last decades the science-policy interface has become more important and more complex too. In this report we search for novel ways to extend or reframe the economic and environmental theories and models upon which policy recommendations are, or should be, based. The methods and applications of Complex System Science, in particular, have been explored and are found to be still fragmented. But they certainly can and should form the basis for introducing behavioural and innovation dynamics which make these theories and models more like what happens in the real world. In combination with interactive simulation and games, of which some examples are discussed in this report, science can in a post-modern context contribute more effectively to the strategic decision making in government and other institutions regarding sustainable development. This will direly be needed in view of the new and global challenges facing us.

  3. Using frameworks to diagram value in complex policy and environmental interventions to prevent childhood obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swank, Melissa Farrell; Brennan, Laura K; Gentry, Daniel; Kemner, Allison L

    2015-01-01

    To date, few tools assist policy makers and practitioners in understanding and conveying the implementation costs, potential impacts, and value of policy and environmental changes to address healthy eating, active living, and childhood obesity. For the Evaluation of Healthy Kids, Healthy Communities (HKHC), evaluators considered inputs (resources and investments) that generate costs and savings as well as benefits and harms related to social, economic, environmental, and health-related outcomes in their assessment of 49 HKHC community partnerships funded from 2009 to 2014. Using data collected through individual and group interviews and an online performance monitoring system, evaluators created a socioecological framework to assess investments, resources, costs, savings, benefits, and harms at the individual, organizational, community, and societal levels. Evaluators customized frameworks for 6 focal strategies: active transportation, parks and play spaces, child care physical activity standards, corner stores, farmers' markets, and child care nutrition standards. To illustrate the Value Frameworks, this brief highlights the 38 HKHC communities implementing at least 1 active transportation strategy. Evaluators populated this conceptual Value Framework with themes from the strategy-specific inputs and outputs. The range of factors corresponding to the implementation and impact of the HKHC community partnerships are highlighted along with the inputs and outputs. The Value Frameworks helped evaluators identify gaps in current analysis models (ie, benefit-cost analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis) as well as paint a more complete picture of value for potential obesity prevention strategies. These frameworks provide a comprehensive understanding of investments needed, proposed costs and savings, and potential benefits and harms associated with economic, social, environmental, and health outcomes. This framing also allowed evaluators to demonstrate the interdependence

  4. Ti(IV) and the Siderophore Desferrioxamine B: A Tight Complex Has Biological and Environmental Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Kayleigh E; Batchler, Kathleen L; Zalouk, Célia; Valentine, Ann M

    2017-02-06

    The siderophore desferrioxamine B (DFOB) binds Ti(IV) tightly and precludes its hydrolytic precipitation under biologically and environmentally relevant conditions. This interaction of DFOB with Ti(IV) is investigated by using spectro-potentiometric and spectro-photometric titrations, mass spectrometry, isothermal titration calorimetry (ITC), and computational modeling. The data from pH 2-10 suggest two one-proton equilibria among three species, with one species predominating below pH 3.5, a second from pH 3.5 to 8, and a third above pH 8. The latter species is prone to slow hydrolytic precipitation. Electrospray mass spectrometry allowed the detection of [Ti(IV) (HDFOB)] 2+ and [Ti(DFOB)] + ; these species were assigned as the pH UV/vis-monitored competition with ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA). Taking into consideration the available binding constant of Ti(IV) and EDTA, the data reveal values of log β 111 = 41.7, log β 110 = 38.1, and log β 11-1 = 30.1. The former value was supported by ITC, with the transfer of Ti(IV) from EDTA to DFOB determined to be both enthalpically and entropically favorable. Computational methods yielded a model of Ti-DFOB. The physiological and environmental implications of this tight interaction and the potential role of DFOB in solubilizing Ti(IV) are discussed.

  5. Regional Persistent Organic Pollutants' Environmental Impact Assessment and Control Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgis Staniskis

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The sources of formation, environmental distribution and fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs are increasingly seen as topics to be addressed and solved at the global scale. Therefore, there are already two international agreements concerning persistent organic pollutants: the Protocol of 1998 to the 1979 Convention on the Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution on Persistent Organic Pollutants (Aarhus Protocol; and the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants. For the assessment of environmental pollution of POPs, for the risk assessment, for the evaluation of new pollutants as potential candidates to be included in the POPs list of the Stokholmo or/and Aarhus Protocol, a set of different models are developed or under development. Multimedia models help describe and understand environmental processes leading to global contamination through POPs and actual risk to the environment and human health. However, there is a lack of the tools based on a systematic and integrated approach to POPs management difficulties in the region.

  6. Complexity and agent-based modelling in urban research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian

    influence on the bigger system. Traditional scientific methods or theories often tried to simplify, not accounting complex relations of actors and decision-making. The introduction of computers in simulation made new approaches in modelling, as for example agent-based modelling (ABM), possible, dealing......Urbanisation processes are results of a broad variety of actors or actor groups and their behaviour and decisions based on different experiences, knowledge, resources, values etc. The decisions done are often on a micro/individual level but resulting in macro/collective behaviour. In urban research...

  7. Methodology and Results of Mathematical Modelling of Complex Technological Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrova, Nataliya V.

    2018-03-01

    The methodology of system analysis allows us to draw a mathematical model of the complex technological process. The mathematical description of the plasma-chemical process was proposed. The importance the quenching rate and initial temperature decrease time was confirmed for producing the maximum amount of the target product. The results of numerical integration of the system of differential equations can be used to describe reagent concentrations, plasma jet rate and temperature in order to achieve optimal mode of hardening. Such models are applicable both for solving control problems and predicting future states of sophisticated technological systems.

  8. Simulating Complex, Cold-region Process Interactions Using a Multi-scale, Variable-complexity Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, C.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate management of water resources is necessary for social, economic, and environmental sustainability worldwide. In locations with seasonal snowcovers, the accurate prediction of these water resources is further complicated due to frozen soils, solid-phase precipitation, blowing snow transport, and snowcover-vegetation-atmosphere interactions. Complex process interactions and feedbacks are a key feature of hydrological systems and may result in emergent phenomena, i.e., the arising of novel and unexpected properties within a complex system. One example is the feedback associated with blowing snow redistribution, which can lead to drifts that cause locally-increased soil moisture, thus increasing plant growth that in turn subsequently impacts snow redistribution, creating larger drifts. Attempting to simulate these emergent behaviours is a significant challenge, however, and there is concern that process conceptualizations within current models are too incomplete to represent the needed interactions. An improved understanding of the role of emergence in hydrological systems often requires high resolution distributed numerical hydrological models that incorporate the relevant process dynamics. The Canadian Hydrological Model (CHM) provides a novel tool for examining cold region hydrological systems. Key features include efficient terrain representation, allowing simulations at various spatial scales, reduced computational overhead, and a modular process representation allowing for an alternative-hypothesis framework. Using both physics-based and conceptual process representations sourced from long term process studies and the current cold regions literature allows for comparison of process representations and importantly, their ability to produce emergent behaviours. Examining the system in a holistic, process-based manner can hopefully derive important insights and aid in development of improved process representations.

  9. The complex sine-Gordon model on a half line

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tzamtzis, Georgios

    2003-01-01

    In this thesis, we study the complex sine-Gordon model on a half line. The model in the bulk is an integrable (1+1) dimensional field theory which is U(1) gauge invariant and comprises a generalisation of the sine-Gordon theory. It accepts soliton and breather solutions. By introducing suitably selected boundary conditions we may consider the model on a half line. Through such conditions the model can be shown to remain integrable and various aspects of the boundary theory can be examined. The first chapter serves as a brief introduction to some basic concepts of integrability and soliton solutions. As an example of an integrable system with soliton solutions, the sine-Gordon model is presented both in the bulk and on a half line. These results will serve as a useful guide for the model at hand. The introduction finishes with a brief overview of the two methods that will be used on the fourth chapter in order to obtain the quantum spectrum of the boundary complex sine-Gordon model. In the second chapter the model is properly introduced along with a brief literature review. Different realisations of the model and their connexions are discussed. The vacuum of the theory is investigated. Soliton solutions are given and a discussion on the existence of breathers follows. Finally the collapse of breather solutions to single solitons is demonstrated and the chapter concludes with a different approach to the breather problem. In the third chapter, we construct the lowest conserved currents and through them we find suitable boundary conditions that allow for their conservation in the presence of a boundary. The boundary term is added to the Lagrangian and the vacuum is reexamined in the half line case. The reflection process of solitons from the boundary is studied and the time-delay is calculated. Finally we address the existence of boundary-bound states. In the fourth chapter we study the quantum complex sine-Gordon model. We begin with a brief overview of the theory in

  10. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaylie Rasmuson; Kurt Rautenstrauch

    2003-01-01

    This analysis is one of nine technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) biosphere model. It documents input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop Biosphere Dose Conversion Factors (BDCF). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in the biosphere Technical Work Plan (TWP, BSC 2003a). It should be noted that some documents identified in Figure 1-1 may be under development and therefore not available at the time this document is issued. The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2003b) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters. This analysis report, ANL-MGR-MD-000006, ''Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model'', is one of the five reports that develop input parameters for the biosphere model. This report defines and justifies values for twelve parameters required in the biosphere model. These parameters are related to use of contaminated groundwater to grow crops. The parameter values recommended in this report are used in the soil, plant, and carbon-14 submodels of the ERMYN

  11. Extending a configuration model to find communities in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin, Di; Hu, Qinghua; He, Dongxiao; Yang, Bo; Baquero, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    Discovery of communities in complex networks is a fundamental data analysis task in various domains. Generative models are a promising class of techniques for identifying modular properties from networks, which has been actively discussed recently. However, most of them cannot preserve the degree sequence of networks, which will distort the community detection results. Rather than using a blockmodel as most current works do, here we generalize a configuration model, namely, a null model of modularity, to solve this problem. Towards decomposing and combining sub-graphs according to the soft community memberships, our model incorporates the ability to describe community structures, something the original model does not have. Also, it has the property, as with the original model, that it fixes the expected degree sequence to be the same as that of the observed network. We combine both the community property and degree sequence preserving into a single unified model, which gives better community results compared with other models. Thereafter, we learn the model using a technique of nonnegative matrix factorization and determine the number of communities by applying consensus clustering. We test this approach both on synthetic benchmarks and on real-world networks, and compare it with two similar methods. The experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our method over competing methods in detecting both disjoint and overlapping communities. (paper)

  12. Environmental system analysis of waste management. Experiences from applications of the ORWARE model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bjoerklund, Anna

    2000-11-01

    Waste management has gone through a history of shifting problems, demands, and strategies over the years. In contrast to the long prevailing view that the problem could be solved by hiding or moving it, waste is now viewed as a problem ranging from local to global concern, and as being an integral part of several sectors in society. Decisive for this view has been society's increasing complexity and thus the increasing complexity of waste, together with a general development of environmental consciousness, moving from local focus on point emission sources, to regional and global issues of more complex nature. This thesis is about the development and application ORWARE; a model for computer aided environmental systems analysis of municipal waste management. Its origin is the hypothesis that widened perspectives are needed in waste management decision-making to avoid severe sub-optimisation of environmental performance. With a strong foundation in life cycle assessment (LCA), ORWARE aims to cover the environmental impacts over the entire life cycle of waste management. It also performs substance flow analysis (SFA) calculations at a rather detailed level of the system. Applying ORWARE has confirmed the importance of applying systems perspective and of taking into account site specific differences in analysis and planning of waste management, rather than relying on overly simplified solutions. Some findings can be generalised and used as guidelines to reduce environmental impact of waste management. Recovery of material and energy resources from waste generally leads to net reductions in energy use and environmental impact, because of the savings this brings about in other sectors. Waste treatment with low rate of energy and materials recovery should therefore be avoided. The exact choice of technology however depends on what products can be recovered and how they are used. Despite the complexity of the model and a certain degree of user unfriendliness, involved

  13. Directional heterogeneity in WTP models for environmental valuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaafsma, M.; Brouwer, R.; Rose, J.

    2012-01-01

    Many studies in the stated preference literature on environmental valuation do not include the effects of substitutes and distance in willingness-to-pay (WTP) models, in spite of the relevance of these effects in aggregation and benefit transfer. Heterogeneity in the availability of substitutes over

  14. Modeling the Relationships between Subdimensions of Environmental Literacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genc, Murat; Akilli, Mustafa

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study is to demonstrate the relationships between subdimensions of environmental literacy using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). The study was conducted by the analysis of students' answers to questionnaires data using SEM. Initially, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin and Bartlett's tests were done to test appropriateness of subdimensions to…

  15. Heuristic Model Of The Composite Quality Index Of Environmental Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, A. N.; Knyaginin, A. A.; Bondarenko, D. V.; Shepet, I. P.; Korolkova, L. N.

    2017-01-01

    The goal of the paper is to present the heuristic model of the composite environmental quality index based on the integrated application of the elements of utility theory, multidimensional scaling, expert evaluation and decision-making. The composite index is synthesized in linear-quadratic form, it provides higher adequacy of the results of the assessment preferences of experts and decision-makers.

  16. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  17. The Mathematical modelling of environmental pollution using the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper environmental pollution has been modeled mathematically using the Freundlich non-linear contaminant transport formulation. An analytical solution of lower order perturbation of the concentration C(x,f) is obtained. Flow profiles for various values of molecular diffusion D and the velocity U are studied and the ...

  18. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunnenberg, C.; Taschner, M.; Ogram, G.L.

    1994-01-01

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs

  19. Key processes and input parameters for environmental tritium models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunnenberg, C; Taschner, M [Niedersaechsisches Inst. fuer Radiooekologie, Hannover (Germany); Ogram, G L [Ontario Hydro, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1994-12-31

    The primary objective of the work reported here is to define key processes and input parameters for mathematical models of environmental tritium behaviour adequate for use in safety analysis and licensing of fusion devices like NET and associated tritium handling facilities. (author). 45 refs., 3 figs.

  20. Environmental radiation levels around Nuclear Fuel Complex, Hyderabad during 1981-1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehta, Navnit; Lakshmanan, A.R.; Kathuria, S.P.; Nambi, K.S.V.

    1989-01-01

    This report presents environmental radiation monitoring results around Nuclear Ffuel Complex (NFC) at Hyderabad for the period, 1981-'88. During 1981-'83 only indoor radiations were monitored at 12 locations in the region of about 15 km. radius around NFC plant. However, during 1984-'88 both indoor and outdoor monitoring was done in a standardised manner at 8 locations. In this routine monitoring programme, environmental thermoluminescent dosimeters were used in quarterly integrating cycles. The average outdoor natural radiation level around NFC during 1984-'88 is found to be 227 ± 34 (σ) mR/y, which is the highest among the various sites in the country where DAE units are located. Such a high level of natural background radiation in and around Hyderabad is due to granitic terrains which normally have significant amounts of primordial radioactivity. The indoor to outdoor radiation ratio is found to be 1.35 ± 0.1 (σ). Application of this ratio on all the available indoor radiation monitoring results of 1981-'88 gives an estimate of 230 ± 26 mR/y as the average outdoor radiation level, and this is in very close agreement with the directly measured value mentioned earlier. The temporal variations seen in the quarterly results of each location have been tested for Normal and Log-Normal distributions and found to yield satisfactory correlations, although the plots reveal slight skewness; the latter however, could not be attributed to the NFC operations. (author). 7 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  1. Major Histocompatibility Complex, demographic, and environmental predictors of antibody presence in a free-ranging mammal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-López, María José; Monello, Ryan J; Schuttler, Stephanie G; Lance, Stacey L; Gompper, Matthew E; Eggert, Lori S

    2014-12-01

    Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) variability plays a key role in pathogen resistance, but its relative importance compared to environmental and demographic factors that also influence resistance is unknown. We analyzed the MHC II DRB exon 2 for 165 raccoons (Procyon lotor) in Missouri (USA). For each animal we also determined the presence of immunoglobulin G (IgG) and immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies to two highly virulent pathogens, canine distemper virus (CDV) and parvovirus. We investigated the role of MHC polymorphism and other demographic and environmental factors previously associated with predicting seroconversion. In addition, using an experimental approach, we studied the relative importance of resource availability and contact rates. We found important associations between IgG antibody presence and several MHC alleles and supertypes but not between IgM antibody presence and MHC. No effect of individual MHC diversity was found. For CDV, supertype S8, one allele within S8 (Prlo-DRB(∗)222), and a second allele (Prlo-DRB(∗)204) were positively associated with being IgG+, while supertype S4 and one allele within the supertype (Prlo-DRB(∗)210) were negatively associated with being IgG+. Age, year, and increased food availability were also positively associated with being IgG+, but allele Prlo-DRB(∗)222 was a stronger predictor. For parvovirus, only one MHC allele was negatively associated with being IgG+ and age and site were stronger predictors of seroconversion. Our results show that negative-frequency dependent selection is likely acting on the raccoon MHC and that while the role of MHC in relation to other factors depends on the pathogen of interest, it may be one of the most important factors predicting successful immune response. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Final Site-Wide Environmental Impact Statement for the Y-12 National Security Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) a separately organized agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for providing the Nation with nuclear weapons and ensuring that those nuclear weapons remain safe, secure, and reliable. As one of the DOE major production facilities, the Y-12 National Security Complex has been DOE's primary site for enriched uranium processing and storage, and one of the manufacturing facilities for maintaining the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. In response to the end of the Cold War and changes in the world's political regimes, the emphasis of the U.S. weapons program has shifted dramatically over the past few years from developing and producing new weapons to dismantlement and maintenance of a smaller, enduring stockpile. The ''Stockpile Stewardship and Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement'' [SSM PEIS], DOE/EIS-0236, issued in September 1996, evaluated alternatives for maintaining the safety and reliability of the nuclear weapons stockpile without underground nuclear testing or production of new-design weapons. In the SSM PEIS Record of Decision (ROD), DOE decided to maintain the national security missions at the Y-12 National Security Complex, but to downsize Y-12 consistent with reduced requirements. These national security missions include (1) maintaining the capability and capacity to fabricate secondaries, limited life components, and case parts for nuclear response; (2) evaluating components and subsystems returned from the stockpile; (3) storing enriched uranium that is designated for national security purposes; (4) storing depleted uranium and lithium parts; (5) dismantling nuclear weapons secondaries returned from the stockpile; (6) processing uranium and lithium (which includes chemical recovery, purification, and conversion of enriched uranium and lithium to a form suitable for long-term storage and/or further use); and (7) providing support to weapons laboratories. During the

  3. Using Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Practices to Address Scientific Misunderstandings Around Complex Environmental Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Kenna, T. C.

    2014-12-01

    The new NGSS provide an important opportunity for scientists to develop curriculum that links the practice of science to research-based data in order to improve understanding in areas of science that are both complex and confusing. Our curriculum focuses in particular on the fate and transport of anthropogenic radionuclides. Radioactivity, both naturally occurring and anthropogenic, is highly debated and largely misunderstood, and for large sections of the population is a source of scientific misunderstanding. Developed as part of the international GEOTRACES project which focuses on identifying ocean processes and quantifying fluxes that control the distributions of selected trace elements and isotopes in the ocean, and on establishing the sensitivity of these distributions to changing environmental conditions, the curriculum topic fits nicely into the applied focus of NGSS with both environmental and topical relevance. Our curriculum design focuses on small group discussion driven by questions, yet unlike more traditional curriculum pieces these are not questions posed to the students, rather they are questions posed by the students to facilitate their deeper understanding. Our curriculum design challenges the traditional question/answer memorization approach to instruction as we strive to develop an educational approach that supports the practice of science as well as the NGSS Cross Cutting Concepts and the Science & Engineering Practices. Our goal is for students to develop a methodology they can employ when faced with a complex scientific issue. Through background readings and team discussions they identify what type of information is important for them to know and where to find a reliable source for that information. Framing their discovery around key questions such as "What type of radioactive decay are we dealing with?", "What is the potential half-life of the isotope?", and "What are the pathways of transport of radioactivity?" allows students to evaluate a

  4. Ionic liquid and solid HF equivalent amine-poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes effecting efficient environmentally friendly isobutane-isobutylene alkylation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olah, George A; Mathew, Thomas; Goeppert, Alain; Török, Béla; Bucsi, Imre; Li, Xing-Ya; Wang, Qi; Marinez, Eric R; Batamack, Patrice; Aniszfeld, Robert; Prakash, G K Surya

    2005-04-27

    Isoparaffin-olefin alkylation was investigated using liquid as well as solid onium poly(hydrogen fluoride) catalysts. These new immobilized anhydrous HF catalysts contain varied amines and nitrogen-containing polymers as complexing agents. The liquid poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes of amines are typical ionic liquids, which are convenient media and serve as HF equivalent catalysts with decreased volatility for isoparaffin-olefin alkylation. Polymeric solid amine:poly(hydrogen fluoride) complexes are excellent solid HF equivalents for similar alkylation acid catalysis. Isobutane-isobutylene or 2-butene alkylation gave excellent yields of high octane alkylates (up to RON = 94). Apart from their excellent catalytic performance, the new catalyst systems significantly reduce environmental hazards due to the low volatility of complexed HF. They represent a new, "green" class of catalyst systems for alkylation reactions, maintaining activity of HF while minimizing its environmental hazards.

  5. Using model complexes to augment and advance metalloproteinase inhibitor design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Faith E; Cohen, Seth M

    2004-05-17

    The tetrahedral zinc complex [(Tp(Ph,Me))ZnOH] (Tp(Ph,Me) = hydrotris(3,5-phenylmethylpyrazolyl)borate) was combined with 2-thenylmercaptan, ethyl 4,4,4-trifluoroacetoacetate, salicylic acid, salicylamide, thiosalicylic acid, thiosalicylamide, methyl salicylate, methyl thiosalicyliate, and 2-hydroxyacetophenone to form the corresponding [(Tp(Ph,Me))Zn(ZBG)] complexes (ZBG = zinc-binding group). X-ray crystal structures of these complexes were obtained to determine the mode of binding for each ZBG, several of which had been previously studied with SAR by NMR (structure-activity relationship by nuclear magnetic resonance) as potential ligands for use in matrix metalloproteinase inhibitors. The [(Tp(Ph,Me))Zn(ZBG)] complexes show that hydrogen bonding and donor atom acidity have a pronounced effect on the mode of binding for this series of ligands. The results of these studies give valuable insight into how ligand protonation state and intramolecular hydrogen bonds can influence the coordination mode of metal-binding proteinase inhibitors. The findings here suggest that model-based approaches can be used to augment drug discovery methods applied to metalloproteins and can aid second-generation drug design.

  6. Model to Evaluate Pro-Environmental Consumer Practices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendolyn Aguilar-Salinas

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The consumer plays a key role in resource conservation; therefore, it is important to know consumer behavior to identify consumer profiles and to promote pro-environmental practices in society that encourage resource conservation and reductions in waste generation. The purpose of this paper is to implement a fuzzy model to evaluate consumer behavior in relation to three pro-environmental practices that can be implemented at the household level, including reductions in resource consumption (reduce, reuse of resources (reuse, and recycling (recycle. To identify socio-demographic profiles that characterize an environmentally responsible consumer, 2831 surveys were applied on a representative sample of consumers residing in a Mexican city. Fuzzy logic and neural networks were applied using a Sugeno-type subtractive clustering to determine each profile. The model input variables were socioeconomic status, age, education level, monthly income, occupation and the type of organizations with which the consumer is affiliated. The output variables were represented by pro-environmental practices. Results show that the consumer practices are performed independently of each other, with the most frequent pro-environmental consumer practices being reduction and reuse.

  7. A model for measuring the environmental sustainability of events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boggia, Antonio; Massei, Gianluca; Paolotti, Luisa; Rocchi, Lucia; Schiavi, Federico

    2018-01-15

    Like all human activities, events can generate significant pressures on environmental resources, unless they are well-managed and monitored. Therefore, it is becoming more and more important to develop models that can measure their environmental sustainability. Although increasing attention is being paid to this sector, there is currently no standard protocol or method to assess the eco-sustainability of events. This article presents an innovative assessment procedure to measure the environmental sustainability of events. It is based on several indicators, combined by means of a multi-criteria approach and aggregated into a final index, which we called METER (Measuring Events Through Environmental Research). The METER index uses nine major operational categories, divided in sub-categories and detailed items, which cover all the main aspects concerning environmental sustainability of an event and are evaluated for all its phases, i.e. planning, organisation, implementation, post event. The index is fairly analytical, and is thus able to represent the numerous aspects to be taken into consideration in the environmental assessment of an event. At the same time, it is simple to apply and user-friendly, thanks to its graphics and effective communication of the web platform within it is implemented. Moreover, METER is based on a participatory approach using the bottom-up model and on the principle of subsidiarity. All official international documents regarding sustainable development now require subsidiarity. However, it is not being currently applied as part of any certification or with any evaluation tool. Therefore, although the index is still a prototype, it represents an innovation in the field of environmental management. A simple exemplary case is presented, about a European Spring School held at University of Perugia (Italy) in 2014, in which the application of METER showed a sustainability assessment score of 638 points out of 1000, with an excellent management

  8. PeTTSy: a computational tool for perturbation analysis of complex systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domijan, Mirela; Brown, Paul E; Shulgin, Boris V; Rand, David A

    2016-03-10

    signalling systems. It allows for simulation and analysis of models under a variety of environmental conditions and for experimental optimisation of complex combined experiments. With its unique set of tools it makes a valuable addition to the current library of sensitivity analysis toolboxes. We believe that this software will be of great use to the wider biological, systems biology and modelling communities.

  9. Model calibration and parameter estimation for environmental and water resource systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sun, Ne-Zheng

    2015-01-01

    This three-part book provides a comprehensive and systematic introduction to the development of useful models for complex systems. Part 1 covers the classical inverse problem for parameter estimation in both deterministic and statistical frameworks, Part 2 is dedicated to system identification, hyperparameter estimation, and model dimension reduction, and Part 3 considers how to collect data and construct reliable models for prediction and decision-making. For the first time, topics such as multiscale inversion, stochastic field parameterization, level set method, machine learning, global sensitivity analysis, data assimilation, model uncertainty quantification, robust design, and goal-oriented modeling, are systematically described and summarized in a single book from the perspective of model inversion, and elucidated with numerical examples from environmental and water resources modeling. Readers of this book will not only learn basic concepts and methods for simple parameter estimation, but also get famili...

  10. Joint Distributed Surf Zone Environmental Model: FY96 Modeling Procedure

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Allard, Richard

    1997-01-01

    ... to the modeling and simulation community. To test this proof of concept, a suite of models were identified and tested for Camp Pendelton, CA, during two 7 day periods in January and August 1995, in which data from the Coupled Ocean...

  11. Semiotic aspects of control and modeling relations in complex systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joslyn, C.

    1996-08-01

    A conceptual analysis of the semiotic nature of control is provided with the goal of elucidating its nature in complex systems. Control is identified as a canonical form of semiotic relation of a system to its environment. As a form of constraint between a system and its environment, its necessary and sufficient conditions are established, and the stabilities resulting from control are distinguished from other forms of stability. These result from the presence of semantic coding relations, and thus the class of control systems is hypothesized to be equivalent to that of semiotic systems. Control systems are contrasted with models, which, while they have the same measurement functions as control systems, do not necessarily require semantic relations because of the lack of the requirement of an interpreter. A hybrid construction of models in control systems is detailed. Towards the goal of considering the nature of control in complex systems, the possible relations among collections of control systems are considered. Powers arguments on conflict among control systems and the possible nature of control in social systems are reviewed, and reconsidered based on our observations about hierarchical control. Finally, we discuss the necessary semantic functions which must be present in complex systems for control in this sense to be present at all.

  12. Stability of rotor systems: A complex modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...... approach applying bounds of appropriate Rayleigh quotients. The rotor systems tested are: a simple Laval rotor, a Laval rotor with additional elasticity and damping in the bearings, and a number of rotor systems with complex symmetric 4 x 4 randomly generated matrices.......The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...

  13. Surface complexation modeling of zinc sorption onto ferrihydrite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, James A; Trivedi, Paras; Scrivner, Noel C; Sparks, Donald L

    2004-02-01

    A previous study involving lead(II) [Pb(II)] sorption onto ferrihydrite over a wide range of conditions highlighted the advantages of combining molecular- and macroscopic-scale investigations with surface complexation modeling to predict Pb(II) speciation and partitioning in aqueous systems. In this work, an extensive collection of new macroscopic and spectroscopic data was used to assess the ability of the modified triple-layer model (TLM) to predict single-solute zinc(II) [Zn(II)] sorption onto 2-line ferrihydrite in NaNO(3) solutions as a function of pH, ionic strength, and concentration. Regression of constant-pH isotherm data, together with potentiometric titration and pH edge data, was a much more rigorous test of the modified TLM than fitting pH edge data alone. When coupled with valuable input from spectroscopic analyses, good fits of the isotherm data were obtained with a one-species, one-Zn-sorption-site model using the bidentate-mononuclear surface complex, (triple bond FeO)(2)Zn; however, surprisingly, both the density of Zn(II) sorption sites and the value of the best-fit equilibrium "constant" for the bidentate-mononuclear complex had to be adjusted with pH to adequately fit the isotherm data. Although spectroscopy provided some evidence for multinuclear surface complex formation at surface loadings approaching site saturation at pH >/=6.5, the assumption of a bidentate-mononuclear surface complex provided acceptable fits of the sorption data over the entire range of conditions studied. Regressing edge data in the absence of isotherm and spectroscopic data resulted in a fair number of surface-species/site-type combinations that provided acceptable fits of the edge data, but unacceptable fits of the isotherm data. A linear relationship between logK((triple bond FeO)2Zn) and pH was found, given by logK((triple bond FeO)2Znat1g/l)=2.058 (pH)-6.131. In addition, a surface activity coefficient term was introduced to the model to reduce the ionic strength

  14. Integrated environmental modeling: a vision and roadmap for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laniak, Gerard F.; Olchin, Gabriel; Goodall, Jonathan; Voinov, Alexey; Hill, Mary; Glynn, Pierre; Whelan, Gene; Geller, Gary; Quinn, Nigel; Blind, Michiel; Peckham, Scott; Reaney, Sim; Gaber, Noha; Kennedy, Philip R.; Hughes, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Integrated environmental modeling (IEM) is inspired by modern environmental problems, decisions, and policies and enabled by transdisciplinary science and computer capabilities that allow the environment to be considered in a holistic way. The problems are characterized by the extent of the environmental system involved, dynamic and interdependent nature of stressors and their impacts, diversity of stakeholders, and integration of social, economic, and environmental considerations. IEM provides a science-based structure to develop and organize relevant knowledge and information and apply it to explain, explore, and predict the behavior of environmental systems in response to human and natural sources of stress. During the past several years a number of workshops were held that brought IEM practitioners together to share experiences and discuss future needs and directions. In this paper we organize and present the results of these discussions. IEM is presented as a landscape containing four interdependent elements: applications, science, technology, and community. The elements are described from the perspective of their role in the landscape, current practices, and challenges that must be addressed. Workshop participants envision a global scale IEM community that leverages modern technologies to streamline the movement of science-based knowledge from its sources in research, through its organization into databases and models, to its integration and application for problem solving purposes. Achieving this vision will require that the global community of IEM stakeholders transcend social, and organizational boundaries and pursue greater levels of collaboration. Among the highest priorities for community action are the development of standards for publishing IEM data and models in forms suitable for automated discovery, access, and integration; education of the next generation of environmental stakeholders, with a focus on transdisciplinary research, development, and

  15. Coproducts performances in biorefineries: Development of Claiming-based allocation models for environmental policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnansounou, Edgard

    2018-04-01

    This study revisited the fundamentals of allocation to joint products and proposed new models for allocating common greenhouse gases emissions among coproducts of biorefineries. These emissions may account for more than 80% of the total emissions of greenhouse gases of the biorefineries. The proposed models optimize the reward of coproducts for their compliance to environmental requirements. They were illustrated by a case study of wheat straw biorefinery built on the literature. Several scenarios were considered with regard to the grain yield, field emissions of greenhouse gases, allocation between grain and straw and policy requirements. The results conform to the expectations and are sensitive to the policy targets and to the environmental performance of the counterpart system. Further research works are necessary to achieve a full application to complex processes. However, the proposed models are promising towards assessing the simultaneous compliance of coproducts of a biorefinery to environment policy requirements. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota, E-mail: dburchart@gig.eu; Fugiel, Agata, E-mail: afugiel@gig.eu; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna, E-mail: kczaplicka@gig.eu; Turek, Marian, E-mail: mturek@gig.eu

    2016-08-15

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  17. Model of environmental life cycle assessment for coal mining operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchart-Korol, Dorota; Fugiel, Agata; Czaplicka-Kolarz, Krystyna; Turek, Marian

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to environmental assessment of coal mining operations, which enables assessment of the factors that are both directly and indirectly affecting the environment and are associated with the production of raw materials and energy used in processes. The primary novelty of the paper is the development of a computational environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) model for coal mining operations and the application of the model for coal mining operations in Poland. The LCA model enables the assessment of environmental indicators for all identified unit processes in hard coal mines with the life cycle approach. The proposed model enables the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) based on the IPCC method and the assessment of damage categories, such as human health, ecosystems and resources based on the ReCiPe method. The model enables the assessment of GHGs for hard coal mining operations in three time frames: 20, 100 and 500 years. The model was used to evaluate the coal mines in Poland. It was demonstrated that the largest environmental impacts in damage categories were associated with the use of fossil fuels, methane emissions and the use of electricity, processing of wastes, heat, and steel supports. It was concluded that an environmental assessment of coal mining operations, apart from direct influence from processing waste, methane emissions and drainage water, should include the use of electricity, heat and steel, particularly for steel supports. Because the model allows the comparison of environmental impact assessment for various unit processes, it can be used for all hard coal mines, not only in Poland but also in the world. This development is an important step forward in the study of the impacts of fossil fuels on the environment with the potential to mitigate the impact of the coal industry on the environment. - Highlights: • A computational LCA model for assessment of coal mining operations • Identification of

  18. Agricultural and Environmental Input Parameters for the Biosphere Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    K. Rasmuson; K. Rautenstrauch

    2004-09-14

    This analysis is one of 10 technical reports that support the Environmental Radiation Model for Yucca Mountain Nevada (ERMYN) (i.e., the biosphere model). It documents development of agricultural and environmental input parameters for the biosphere model, and supports the use of the model to develop biosphere dose conversion factors (BDCFs). The biosphere model is one of a series of process models supporting the total system performance assessment (TSPA) for the repository at Yucca Mountain. The ERMYN provides the TSPA with the capability to perform dose assessments. A graphical representation of the documentation hierarchy for the ERMYN is presented in Figure 1-1. This figure shows the interrelationships between the major activities and their products (the analysis and model reports) that were planned in ''Technical Work Plan for Biosphere Modeling and Expert Support'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169573]). The ''Biosphere Model Report'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169460]) describes the ERMYN and its input parameters.

  19. Modelling of the quenching process in complex superconducting magnet systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hagedorn, D.; Rodriguez-Mateos, F.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the superconducting twin bore dipole magnet for the proposed Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN shows a complex winding structure consisting of eight compact layers each of them electromagnetically and thermally coupled with the others. This magnet is only one part of an electrical circuit; test and operation conditions are characterized by different circuits. In order to study the quenching process in this complex system, design adequate protection schemes, and provide a basis for the dimensioning of protection devices such as heaters, current breakers and dump resistors, a general simulation tool called QUABER has been developed using the analog system analysis program SABER. A complete set of electro-thermal models has been crated for the propagation of normal regions. Any network extension or modification is easy to implement without rewriting the whole set of differential equations

  20. Sensitivity analysis of specific activity model parameters for environmental transport of 3H and dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, S.; Mishra, D.G.; Ravi, P.M.; Tripathi, R.M.

    2016-01-01

    Tritium is one of the radionuclides likely to get released to the environment from Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors. Environmental models are extensively used to quantify the complex environmental transport processes of radionuclides and also to assess the impact to the environment. Model parameters exerting the significant influence on model results are identified through a sensitivity analysis (SA). SA is the study of how the variation (uncertainty) in the output of a mathematical model can be apportioned, qualitatively or quantitatively, to different sources of variation in the input parameters. This study was designed to identify the sensitive model parameters of specific activity model (TRS 1616, IAEA) for environmental transfer of 3 H following release to air and then to vegetation and animal products. Model includes parameters such as air to soil transfer factor (CRs), Tissue Free Water 3 H to Organically Bound 3 H ratio (Rp), Relative humidity (RH), WCP (fractional water content) and WEQp (water equivalent factor) any change in these parameters leads to change in 3 H level in vegetation and animal products consequently change in dose due to ingestion. All these parameters are function of climate and/or plant which change with time, space and species. Estimation of these parameters at every time is a time consuming and also required sophisticated instrumentation. Therefore it is necessary to identify the sensitive parameters and freeze the values of least sensitive parameters at constant values for more accurate estimation of 3 H dose in short time for routine assessment

  1. A Primer for Model Selection: The Decisive Role of Model Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höge, Marvin; Wöhling, Thomas; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2018-03-01

    Selecting a "best" model among several competing candidate models poses an often encountered problem in water resources modeling (and other disciplines which employ models). For a modeler, the best model fulfills a certain purpose best (e.g., flood prediction), which is typically assessed by comparing model simulations to data (e.g., stream flow). Model selection methods find the "best" trade-off between good fit with data and model complexity. In this context, the interpretations of model complexity implied by different model selection methods are crucial, because they represent different underlying goals of modeling. Over the last decades, numerous model selection criteria have been proposed, but modelers who primarily want to apply a model selection criterion often face a lack of guidance for choosing the right criterion that matches their goal. We propose a classification scheme for model selection criteria that helps to find the right criterion for a specific goal, i.e., which employs the correct complexity interpretation. We identify four model selection classes which seek to achieve high predictive density, low predictive error, high model probability, or shortest compression of data. These goals can be achieved by following either nonconsistent or consistent model selection and by either incorporating a Bayesian parameter prior or not. We allocate commonly used criteria to these four classes, analyze how they represent model complexity and what this means for the model selection task. Finally, we provide guidance on choosing the right type of criteria for specific model selection tasks. (A quick guide through all key points is given at the end of the introduction.)

  2. Spectroscopic studies of molybdenum complexes as models for nitrogenase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, T.P.

    1981-05-01

    Because biological nitrogen fixation requires Mo, there is an interest in inorganic Mo complexes which mimic the reactions of nitrogen-fixing enzymes. Two such complexes are the dimer Mo 2 O 4 (cysteine) 2 2- and trans-Mo(N 2 ) 2 (dppe) 2 (dppe = 1,2-bis(diphenylphosphino)ethane). The H 1 and C 13 NMR of solutions of Mo 2 O 4 (cys) 2 2- are described. It is shown that in aqueous solution the cysteine ligands assume at least three distinct configurations. A step-wise dissociation of the cysteine ligand is proposed to explain the data. The Extended X-ray Absorption Fine Structure (EXAFS) of trans-Mo(N 2 ) 2 (dppe) 2 is described and compared to the EXAFS of MoH 4 (dppe) 2 . The spectra are fitted to amplitude and phase parameters developed at Bell Laboratories. On the basis of this analysis, one can determine (1) that the dinitrogen complex contains nitrogen and the hydride complex does not and (2) the correct Mo-N distance. This is significant because the Mo inn both complexes is coordinated by four P atoms which dominate the EXAFS. A similar sort of interference is present in nitrogenase due to S coordination of the Mo in the enzyme. This model experiment indicates that, given adequate signal to noise ratios, the presence or absence of dinitrogen coordination to Mo in the enzyme may be determined by EXAFS using existing data analysis techniques. A new reaction between Mo 2 O 4 (cys) 2 2- and acetylene is described to the extent it is presently understood. A strong EPR signal is observed, suggesting the production of stable Mo(V) monomers. EXAFS studies support this suggestion. The Mo K-edge is described. The edge data suggests Mo(VI) is also produced in the reaction. Ultraviolet spectra suggest that cysteine is released in the course of the reaction

  3. Synthesizing models useful for ecohydrology and ecohydraulic approaches: An emphasis on integrating models to address complex research questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Shannon K.; Worthington, Thomas; Mollenhauer, Robert; Stewart, David; McManamay, Ryan; Guertault, Lucie; Moore, Desiree

    2018-01-01

    Ecohydrology combines empiricism, data analytics, and the integration of models to characterize linkages between ecological and hydrological processes. A challenge for practitioners is determining which models best generalizes heterogeneity in hydrological behaviour, including water fluxes across spatial and temporal scales, integrating environmental and socio‐economic activities to determine best watershed management practices and data requirements. We conducted a literature review and synthesis of hydrologic, hydraulic, water quality, and ecological models designed for solving interdisciplinary questions. We reviewed 1,275 papers and identified 178 models that have the capacity to answer an array of research questions about ecohydrology or ecohydraulics. Of these models, 43 were commonly applied due to their versatility, accessibility, user‐friendliness, and excellent user‐support. Forty‐one of 43 reviewed models were linked to at least 1 other model especially: Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (linked to 21 other models), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (19), and Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (15). However, model integration was still relatively infrequent. There was substantial variation in model applications, possibly an artefact of the regional focus of research questions, simplicity of use, quality of user‐support efforts, or a limited understanding of model applicability. Simply increasing the interoperability of model platforms, transformation of models to user‐friendly forms, increasing user‐support, defining the reliability and risk associated with model results, and increasing awareness of model applicability may promote increased use of models across subdisciplines. Nonetheless, the current availability of models allows an array of interdisciplinary questions to be addressed, and model choice relates to several factors including research objective, model complexity, ability to link to other models, and

  4. Diffusion in higher dimensional SYK model with complex fermions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Wenhe; Ge, Xian-Hui; Yang, Guo-Hong

    2018-01-01

    We construct a new higher dimensional SYK model with complex fermions on bipartite lattices. As an extension of the original zero-dimensional SYK model, we focus on the one-dimension case, and similar Hamiltonian can be obtained in higher dimensions. This model has a conserved U(1) fermion number Q and a conjugate chemical potential μ. We evaluate the thermal and charge diffusion constants via large q expansion at low temperature limit. The results show that the diffusivity depends on the ratio of free Majorana fermions to Majorana fermions with SYK interactions. The transport properties and the butterfly velocity are accordingly calculated at low temperature. The specific heat and the thermal conductivity are proportional to the temperature. The electrical resistivity also has a linear temperature dependence term.

  5. 3D model of amphioxus steroid receptor complexed with estradiol

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, Michael E., E-mail: mbaker@ucsd.edu [Department of Medicine, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0693 (United States); Chang, David J. [Department of Biology, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, CA 92093-0693 (United States)

    2009-08-28

    The origins of signaling by vertebrate steroids are not fully understood. An important advance was the report that an estrogen-binding steroid receptor [SR] is present in amphioxus, a basal chordate with a similar body plan as vertebrates. To investigate the evolution of estrogen-binding to steroid receptors, we constructed a 3D model of amphioxus SR complexed with estradiol. This 3D model indicates that although the SR is activated by estradiol, some interactions between estradiol and human ER{alpha} are not conserved in the SR, which can explain the low affinity of estradiol for the SR. These differences between the SR and ER{alpha} in the steroid-binding domain are sufficient to suggest that another steroid is the physiological regulator of the SR. The 3D model predicts that mutation of Glu-346 to Gln will increase the affinity of testosterone for amphioxus SR and elucidate the evolution of steroid-binding to nuclear receptors.

  6. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonten, Luc T.C.; Groenenberg, Jan E.; Meesenburg, Henning; Vries, Wim de

    2011-01-01

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: → Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. → Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. → The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. → Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  7. Using advanced surface complexation models for modelling soil chemistry under forests: Solling forest, Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonten, Luc T.C., E-mail: luc.bonten@wur.nl [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Groenenberg, Jan E. [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Meesenburg, Henning [Northwest German Forest Research Station, Abt. Umweltkontrolle, Sachgebiet Intensives Umweltmonitoring, Goettingen (Germany); Vries, Wim de [Alterra-Wageningen UR, Soil Science Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-10-15

    Various dynamic soil chemistry models have been developed to gain insight into impacts of atmospheric deposition of sulphur, nitrogen and other elements on soil and soil solution chemistry. Sorption parameters for anions and cations are generally calibrated for each site, which hampers extrapolation in space and time. On the other hand, recently developed surface complexation models (SCMs) have been successful in predicting ion sorption for static systems using generic parameter sets. This study reports the inclusion of an assemblage of these SCMs in the dynamic soil chemistry model SMARTml and applies this model to a spruce forest site in Solling Germany. Parameters for SCMs were taken from generic datasets and not calibrated. Nevertheless, modelling results for major elements matched observations well. Further, trace metals were included in the model, also using the existing framework of SCMs. The model predicted sorption for most trace elements well. - Highlights: > Surface complexation models can be well applied in field studies. > Soil chemistry under a forest site is adequately modelled using generic parameters. > The model is easily extended with extra elements within the existing framework. > Surface complexation models can show the linkages between major soil chemistry and trace element behaviour. - Surface complexation models with generic parameters make calibration of sorption superfluous in dynamic modelling of deposition impacts on soil chemistry under nature areas.

  8. Modeling impact of environmental factors on photovoltaic array performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jie; Sun, Yize; Xu, Yang [College of Mechanical Engineering, Donghua University NO.2999, North Renmin Road, Shanghai (China)

    2013-07-01

    It is represented in this paper that a methodology to model and quantify the impact of the three environmental factors, the ambient temperature, the incident irradiance and the wind speed, upon the performance of photovoltaic array operating under outdoor conditions. First, A simple correlation correlating operating temperature with the three environmental variables is validated for a range of wind speed studied, 2-8, and for irradiance values between 200 and 1000. Root mean square error (RMSE) between modeled operating temperature and measured values is 1.19% and the mean bias error (MBE) is -0.09%. The environmental factors studied influence I-V curves, P-V curves, and maximum-power outputs of photovoltaic array. The cell-to-module-to-array mathematical model for photovoltaic panels is established in this paper and the method defined as segmented iteration is adopted to solve the I-V curve expression to relate model I-V curves. The model I-V curves and P-V curves are concluded to coincide well with measured data points. The RMSE between numerically calculated maximum-power outputs and experimentally measured ones is 0.2307%, while the MBE is 0.0183%. In addition, a multivariable non-linear regression equation is proposed to eliminate the difference between numerically calculated values and measured ones of maximum power outputs over the range of high ambient temperature and irradiance at noon and in the early afternoon. In conclusion, the proposed method is reasonably simple and accurate.

  9. Ecosystem effects of environmental flows: Modelling and experimental floods in a dryland river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafroth, P.B.; Wilcox, A.C.; Lytle, D.A.; Hickey, J.T.; Andersen, D.C.; Beauchamp, Vanessa B.; Hautzinger, A.; McMullen, L.E.; Warner, A.

    2010-01-01

    Successful environmental flow prescriptions require an accurate understanding of the linkages among flow events, geomorphic processes and biotic responses. We describe models and results from experimental flow releases associated with an environmental flow program on the Bill Williams River (BWR), Arizona, in arid to semiarid western U.S.A. Two general approaches for improving knowledge and predictions of ecological responses to environmental flows are: (1) coupling physical system models to ecological responses and (2) clarifying empirical relationships between flow and ecological responses through implementation and monitoring of experimental flow releases. We modelled the BWR physical system using: (1) a reservoir operations model to simulate reservoir releases and reservoir water levels and estimate flow through the river system under a range of scenarios, (2) one- and two-dimensional river hydraulics models to estimate stage-discharge relationships at the whole-river and local scales, respectively, and (3) a groundwater model to estimate surface- and groundwater interactions in a large, alluvial valley on the BWR where surface flow is frequently absent. An example of a coupled, hydrology-ecology model is the Ecosystems Function Model, which we used to link a one-dimensional hydraulic model with riparian tree seedling establishment requirements to produce spatially explicit predictions of seedling recruitment locations in a Geographic Information System. We also quantified the effects of small experimental floods on the differential mortality of native and exotic riparian trees, on beaver dam integrity and distribution, and on the dynamics of differentially flow-adapted benthic macroinvertebrate groups. Results of model applications and experimental flow releases are contributing to adaptive flow management on the BWR and to the development of regional environmental flow standards. General themes that emerged from our work include the importance of response

  10. Exploring Environmental Factors in Nursing Workplaces That Promote Psychological Resilience: Constructing a Unified Theoretical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cusack, Lynette; Smith, Morgan; Hegney, Desley; Rees, Clare S; Breen, Lauren J; Witt, Regina R; Rogers, Cath; Williams, Allison; Cross, Wendy; Cheung, Kin

    2016-01-01

    Building nurses' resilience to complex and stressful practice environments is necessary to keep skilled nurses in the workplace and ensuring safe patient care. A unified theoretical framework titled Health Services Workplace Environmental Resilience Model (HSWERM), is presented to explain the environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. The framework builds on a previously-published theoretical model of individual resilience, which identified the key constructs of psychological resilience as self-efficacy, coping and mindfulness, but did not examine environmental factors in the workplace that promote nurses' resilience. This unified theoretical framework was developed using a literary synthesis drawing on data from international studies and literature reviews on the nursing workforce in hospitals. The most frequent workplace environmental factors were identified, extracted and clustered in alignment with key constructs for psychological resilience. Six major organizational concepts emerged that related to a positive resilience-building workplace and formed the foundation of the theoretical model. Three concepts related to nursing staff support (professional, practice, personal) and three related to nursing staff development (professional, practice, personal) within the workplace environment. The unified theoretical model incorporates these concepts within the workplace context, linking to the nurse, and then impacting on personal resilience and workplace outcomes, and its use has the potential to increase staff retention and quality of patient care.

  11. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M. (eds.)

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person.

  12. Inventory of environmental impact models related to energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, P.T.; Dailey, N.S.; Johnson, C.A.; Martin, F.M.

    1979-02-01

    The purpose of this inventory is to identify and collect data on computer simulations and computational models related to the environmental effects of energy source development, energy conversion, or energy utilization. Information for 33 data fields was sought for each model reported. All of the information which could be obtained within the time alloted for completion of the project is presented for each model listed. Efforts will be continued toward acquiring the needed information. Readers who are interested in these particular models are invited to contact ESIC for assistance in locating them. In addition to the standard bibliographic information, other data fields of interest to modelers, such as computer hardware and software requirements, algorithms, applications, and existing model validation information, are included. Indexes are provided for contact person, acronym, keyword, and title. The models are grouped into the following categories: atmospheric transport, air quality, aquatic transport, terrestrial food chains, soil transport, aquatic food chains, water quality, dosimetry, and human effects, animal effects, plant effects, and generalized environmental transport. Within these categories, the models are arranged alphabetically by last name of the contact person

  13. Interactive Higher Education Instruction to Advance STEM Instruction in the Environmental Sciences - the Brownfield Action Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddicoat, J. C.; Bower, P.

    2015-12-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates that presently there are over half a million brownfields in the United States, but this number only includes sites for which an Environmental Site Assessment has been conducted. The actual number of brownfields is certainly in the millions and constitutes one of the major environmental issues confronting all communities today. Taught in part or entirely online for more than 15 years in environmental science, engineering, and hydrology courses at over a dozen colleges, universities, and high schools in the United States, Brownfield Action (BA) is an interactive, web-based simulation that combines scientific expertise, constructivist education philosophy, and multimedia to advance the teaching of environmental science (Bower et al., 2011, 2014; Liddicoat and Bower, 2015). In the online simulation and classroom, students form geotechnical consulting companies with a peer chosen at random to solve a problem in environmental forensics. The BA model contains interdisciplinary scientific and social information that are integrated within a digital learning environment that encourages students to construct their knowledge as they learn by doing. As such, the approach improves the depth and coherence of students understanding of the course material. Like real-world environmental consultants and professionals, students are required to develop and apply expertise from a wide range of fields, including environmental science and engineering as well as journalism, medicine, public health, law, civics, economics, and business management. The overall objective is for students to gain an unprecedented appreciation of the complexity, ambiguity, and risk involved in any environmental issue, and to acquire STEM knowledge that can be used constructively when confronted with such an issue.

  14. A structure for models of hazardous materials with complex behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodean, H.C.

    1991-01-01

    Most atmospheric dispersion models used to assess the environmental consequences of accidental releases of hazardous chemicals do not have the capability to simulate the pertinent chemical and physical processes associated with the release of the material and its mixing with the atmosphere. The purpose of this paper is to present a materials sub-model with the flexibility to simulate the chemical and physical behaviour of a variety of materials released into the atmosphere. The model, which is based on thermodynamic equilibrium, incorporates the ideal gas law, temperature-dependent vapor pressure equations, temperature-dependent dissociation reactions, and reactions with atmospheric water vapor. The model equations, written in terms of pressure ratios and dimensionless parameters, are used to construct equilibrium diagrams with temperature and the mass fraction of the material in the mixture as coordinates. The model's versatility is demonstrated by its application to the release of UF 6 and N 2 O 4 , two materials with very different physical and chemical properties. (author)

  15. Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Qinghua; Huang, Zi-Gang; Wang, Yougui; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-09-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena.

  16. Multiagent model and mean field theory of complex auction dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Qinghua; Wang, Yougui; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2015-01-01

    Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in analyzing a variety of socio-economic phenomena using methods from statistical and nonlinear physics. We study a class of complex systems arising from economics, the lowest unique bid auction (LUBA) systems, which is a recently emerged class of online auction game systems. Through analyzing large, empirical data sets of LUBA, we identify a general feature of the bid price distribution: an inverted J-shaped function with exponential decay in the large bid price region. To account for the distribution, we propose a multi-agent model in which each agent bids stochastically in the field of winner’s attractiveness, and develop a theoretical framework to obtain analytic solutions of the model based on mean field analysis. The theory produces bid-price distributions that are in excellent agreement with those from the real data. Our model and theory capture the essential features of human behaviors in the competitive environment as exemplified by LUBA, and may provide significant quantitative insights into complex socio-economic phenomena. (paper)

  17. Complex Coronary Hemodynamics - Simple Analog Modelling as an Educational Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, Gaurav R; Peter, Elvis; Kakouros, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    Invasive coronary angiography remains the cornerstone for evaluation of coronary stenoses despite there being a poor correlation between luminal loss assessment by coronary luminography and myocardial ischemia. This is especially true for coronary lesions deemed moderate by visual assessment. Coronary pressure-derived fractional flow reserve (FFR) has emerged as the gold standard for the evaluation of hemodynamic significance of coronary artery stenosis, which is cost effective and leads to improved patient outcomes. There are, however, several limitations to the use of FFR including the evaluation of serial stenoses. In this article, we discuss the electronic-hydraulic analogy and the utility of simple electrical modelling to mimic the coronary circulation and coronary stenoses. We exemplify the effect of tandem coronary lesions on the FFR by modelling of a patient with sequential disease segments and complex anatomy. We believe that such computational modelling can serve as a powerful educational tool to help clinicians better understand the complexity of coronary hemodynamics and improve patient care.

  18. EcoMark: Evaluating Models of Vehicular Environmental Impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Chenjuan; Ma, Mike; Yang, Bin

    2012-01-01

    The reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transporta- tion is essential for achieving politically agreed upon emissions re- duction targets that aim to combat global climate change. So-called eco-routing and eco-driving are able to substantially reduce GHG emissions caused by vehicular...... the vehicle travels in. We develop an evaluation framework, called EcoMark, for such environmental impact models. In addition, we survey all eleven state-of-the-art impact models known to us. To gain insight into the capabilities of the models and to understand the effectiveness of the EcoMark, we apply...

  19. Stochastic models for predicting environmental impact in aquatic ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stewart-Oaten, A.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of stochastic predictions are discussed in relation to the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants on aquatic ecosystems. One purpose is to aid in making rational decisions about whether a power plant should be built, where, and how it should be designed. The other purpose is to check on the models themselves in the light of what eventually happens. The author discusses the role or statistical decision theory in the decision-making problem. Various types of stochastic models and their problems are presented. In addition some suggestions are made for generating usable stochastic models, and checking and improving on them. 12 references

  20. The Y-12 Plant - a model for environmental excellence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-11-01

    The Department of Energy`s Y-12 Plant, located in Oak Ridge, Tennessee, occupies more than 800 acres and has a work force of over 4,000 employees. The Y-12 Plant is managed by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc., a subsidiary of Martin Marietta Corporation. Although mission emphases at the Y-12 Plant have evolved and changed with the easing of international tensions, the Plant continues to serve as a key manufacturing unit and technology demonstration center for the Department of Energy and the nation. The Y-12 Plant has undergone many changes in the last 14 years. One of the most dramatic changes has occurred in the environmental programs with measurable improvements in environmental quality, the development of an award-winning pollution prevention program, and the institution of an environmentally-conscious work ethic among the work force. Because the plant is committed to achieving excellence, not just compliance with laws and regulations, a highly structured, multimedia environmental management program is in place. This program, combined with a commitment to protect the environment while striving for continued improvement, has placed Y-12 in the position to reach excellence. As a result of the Y-12 Plant`s changing mission, they are now working closely with American industry through technology transfer to share their experiences and {open_quotes}lessons learned{close_quotes}--including environmental and pollution prevention technology. To facilitate this effort, the Oak Ridge Centers for Manufacturing Technology has been established at the Y-12 Plant. Through the Centers, the Oak Ridge staff applies skills, capabilities, and facilities developed over a 50-year history of the Oak Ridge Complex to a variety of peacetime missions. The services found at the Centers are a key to helping America`s businesses--both small and large--compete in the global marketplace while protecting the nations environment and conserving its resources.