WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling approaches assumptions

  1. Improving Baseline Model Assumptions: Evaluating the Impacts of Typical Methodological Approaches in Watershed Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muenich, R. L.; Kalcic, M. M.; Teshager, A. D.; Long, C. M.; Wang, Y. C.; Scavia, D.

    2017-12-01

    Thanks to the availability of open-source software, online tutorials, and advanced software capabilities, watershed modeling has expanded its user-base and applications significantly in the past thirty years. Even complicated models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are being used and documented in hundreds of peer-reviewed publications each year, and likely more applied in practice. These models can help improve our understanding of present, past, and future conditions, or analyze important "what-if" management scenarios. However, baseline data and methods are often adopted and applied without rigorous testing. In multiple collaborative projects, we have evaluated the influence of some of these common approaches on model results. Specifically, we examined impacts of baseline data and assumptions involved in manure application, combined sewer overflows, and climate data incorporation across multiple watersheds in the Western Lake Erie Basin. In these efforts, we seek to understand the impact of using typical modeling data and assumptions, versus using improved data and enhanced assumptions on model outcomes and thus ultimately, study conclusions. We provide guidance for modelers as they adopt and apply data and models for their specific study region. While it is difficult to quantitatively assess the full uncertainty surrounding model input data and assumptions, recognizing the impacts of model input choices is important when considering actions at the both the field and watershed scales.

  2. Limiting assumptions in molecular modeling: electrostatics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Garland R

    2013-02-01

    Molecular mechanics attempts to represent intermolecular interactions in terms of classical physics. Initial efforts assumed a point charge located at the atom center and coulombic interactions. It is been recognized over multiple decades that simply representing electrostatics with a charge on each atom failed to reproduce the electrostatic potential surrounding a molecule as estimated by quantum mechanics. Molecular orbitals are not spherically symmetrical, an implicit assumption of monopole electrostatics. This perspective reviews recent evidence that requires use of multipole electrostatics and polarizability in molecular modeling.

  3. Lightweight Graphical Models for Selectivity Estimation Without Independence Assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tzoumas, Kostas; Deshpande, Amol; Jensen, Christian S.

    2011-01-01

    , propagated exponentially, can lead to severely sub-optimal plans. Modern optimizers typically maintain one-dimensional statistical summaries and make the attribute value independence and join uniformity assumptions for efficiently estimating selectivities. Therefore, selectivity estimation errors in today......’s optimizers are frequently caused by missed correlations between attributes. We present a selectivity estimation approach that does not make the independence assumptions. By carefully using concepts from the field of graphical models, we are able to factor the joint probability distribution of all...

  4. The sufficiency assumption of the reasoned approach to action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Trafimow

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The reasoned action approach to understanding and predicting behavior includes the sufficiency assumption. Although variables not included in the theory may influence behavior, these variables work through the variables in the theory. Once the reasoned action variables are included in an analysis, the inclusion of other variables will not increase the variance accounted for in behavioral intentions or behavior. Reasoned action researchers are very concerned with testing if new variables account for variance (or how much traditional variables account for variance, to see whether they are important, in general or with respect to specific behaviors under investigation. But this approach tacitly assumes that accounting for variance is highly relevant to understanding the production of variance, which is what really is at issue. Based on the variance law, I question this assumption.

  5. Estimators for longitudinal latent exposure models: examining measurement model assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Brisa N; Kim, Sehee; Sammel, Mary D

    2017-06-15

    Latent variable (LV) models are increasingly being used in environmental epidemiology as a way to summarize multiple environmental exposures and thus minimize statistical concerns that arise in multiple regression. LV models may be especially useful when multivariate exposures are collected repeatedly over time. LV models can accommodate a variety of assumptions but, at the same time, present the user with many choices for model specification particularly in the case of exposure data collected repeatedly over time. For instance, the user could assume conditional independence of observed exposure biomarkers given the latent exposure and, in the case of longitudinal latent exposure variables, time invariance of the measurement model. Choosing which assumptions to relax is not always straightforward. We were motivated by a study of prenatal lead exposure and mental development, where assumptions of the measurement model for the time-changing longitudinal exposure have appreciable impact on (maximum-likelihood) inferences about the health effects of lead exposure. Although we were not particularly interested in characterizing the change of the LV itself, imposing a longitudinal LV structure on the repeated multivariate exposure measures could result in high efficiency gains for the exposure-disease association. We examine the biases of maximum likelihood estimators when assumptions about the measurement model for the longitudinal latent exposure variable are violated. We adapt existing instrumental variable estimators to the case of longitudinal exposures and propose them as an alternative to estimate the health effects of a time-changing latent predictor. We show that instrumental variable estimators remain unbiased for a wide range of data generating models and have advantages in terms of mean squared error. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Models for waste life cycle assessment: Review of technical assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gentil, Emmanuel; Damgaard, Anders; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2010-01-01

    waste LCA models. This review infers that some of the differences in waste LCA models are inherent to the time they were developed. It is expected that models developed later, benefit from past modelling assumptions and knowledge and issues. Models developed in different countries furthermore rely...

  7. Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Blanchard, Julia L.; Fulton, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science; doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsv122) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Fro...... that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context...

  8. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  9. Sensitivity of fluvial sediment source apportionment to mixing model assumptions: A Bayesian model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Richard J; Krueger, Tobias; Hiscock, Kevin M; Rawlins, Barry G

    2014-11-01

    Mixing models have become increasingly common tools for apportioning fluvial sediment load to various sediment sources across catchments using a wide variety of Bayesian and frequentist modeling approaches. In this study, we demonstrate how different model setups can impact upon resulting source apportionment estimates in a Bayesian framework via a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) sensitivity analysis. We formulate 13 versions of a mixing model, each with different error assumptions and model structural choices, and apply them to sediment geochemistry data from the River Blackwater, Norfolk, UK, to apportion suspended particulate matter (SPM) contributions from three sources (arable topsoils, road verges, and subsurface material) under base flow conditions between August 2012 and August 2013. Whilst all 13 models estimate subsurface sources to be the largest contributor of SPM (median ∼76%), comparison of apportionment estimates reveal varying degrees of sensitivity to changing priors, inclusion of covariance terms, incorporation of time-variant distributions, and methods of proportion characterization. We also demonstrate differences in apportionment results between a full and an empirical Bayesian setup, and between a Bayesian and a frequentist optimization approach. This OFAT sensitivity analysis reveals that mixing model structural choices and error assumptions can significantly impact upon sediment source apportionment results, with estimated median contributions in this study varying by up to 21% between model versions. Users of mixing models are therefore strongly advised to carefully consider and justify their choice of model structure prior to conducting sediment source apportionment investigations. An OFAT sensitivity analysis of sediment fingerprinting mixing models is conductedBayesian models display high sensitivity to error assumptions and structural choicesSource apportionment results differ between Bayesian and frequentist approaches.

  10. PKreport: report generation for checking population pharmacokinetic model assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jun

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Graphics play an important and unique role in population pharmacokinetic (PopPK model building by exploring hidden structure among data before modeling, evaluating model fit, and validating results after modeling. Results The work described in this paper is about a new R package called PKreport, which is able to generate a collection of plots and statistics for testing model assumptions, visualizing data and diagnosing models. The metric system is utilized as the currency for communicating between data sets and the package to generate special-purpose plots. It provides ways to match output from diverse software such as NONMEM, Monolix, R nlme package, etc. The package is implemented with S4 class hierarchy, and offers an efficient way to access the output from NONMEM 7. The final reports take advantage of the web browser as user interface to manage and visualize plots. Conclusions PKreport provides 1 a flexible and efficient R class to store and retrieve NONMEM 7 output, 2 automate plots for users to visualize data and models, 3 automatically generated R scripts that are used to create the plots; 4 an archive-oriented management tool for users to store, retrieve and modify figures, 5 high-quality graphs based on the R packages, lattice and ggplot2. The general architecture, running environment and statistical methods can be readily extended with R class hierarchy. PKreport is free to download at http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/PKreport/index.html.

  11. Lifelong learning: Foundational models, underlying assumptions and critiques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regmi, Kapil Dev

    2015-04-01

    Lifelong learning has become a catchword in almost all countries because of its growing influence on education policies in the globalised world. In the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU), the promotion of lifelong learning has been a strategy to speed up economic growth and become competitive. For UNESCO and the World Bank, lifelong learning has been a novel education model to improve educational policies and programmes in developing countries. In the existing body of literature on the topic, various models of lifelong learning are discussed. After reviewing a number of relevant seminal texts by proponents of a variety of schools, this paper argues that the vast number of approaches are actually built on two foundational models, which the author calls the "human capital model" and the "humanistic model". The former aims to increase productive capacity by encouraging competition, privatisation and human capital formation so as to enhance economic growth. The latter aims to strengthen democracy and social welfare by fostering citizenship education, building social capital and expanding capability.

  12. Camera traps and mark-resight models: The value of ancillary data for evaluating assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Arielle W.; Simons, Theodore R.; Pollock, Kenneth H.; Stoskopf, Michael K.; Stocking, Jessica J.; O'Connell, Allan F.

    2015-01-01

    Unbiased estimators of abundance and density are fundamental to the study of animal ecology and critical for making sound management decisions. Capture–recapture models are generally considered the most robust approach for estimating these parameters but rely on a number of assumptions that are often violated but rarely validated. Mark-resight models, a form of capture–recapture, are well suited for use with noninvasive sampling methods and allow for a number of assumptions to be relaxed. We used ancillary data from continuous video and radio telemetry to evaluate the assumptions of mark-resight models for abundance estimation on a barrier island raccoon (Procyon lotor) population using camera traps. Our island study site was geographically closed, allowing us to estimate real survival and in situ recruitment in addition to population size. We found several sources of bias due to heterogeneity of capture probabilities in our study, including camera placement, animal movement, island physiography, and animal behavior. Almost all sources of heterogeneity could be accounted for using the sophisticated mark-resight models developed by McClintock et al. (2009b) and this model generated estimates similar to a spatially explicit mark-resight model previously developed for this population during our study. Spatially explicit capture–recapture models have become an important tool in ecology and confer a number of advantages; however, non-spatial models that account for inherent individual heterogeneity may perform nearly as well, especially where immigration and emigration are limited. Non-spatial models are computationally less demanding, do not make implicit assumptions related to the isotropy of home ranges, and can provide insights with respect to the biological traits of the local population.

  13. Vocational Didactics: Core Assumptions and Approaches from Denmark, Germany, Norway, Spain and Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gessler, Michael; Moreno Herrera, Lázaro

    2015-01-01

    The design of vocational didactics has to meet special requirements. Six core assumptions are identified: outcome orientation, cultural-historical embedding, horizontal structure, vertical structure, temporal structure, and the changing nature of work. Different approaches and discussions from school-based systems (Spain and Sweden) and dual…

  14. Benchmarking biological nutrient removal in wastewater treatment plants: influence of mathematical model assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Gernaey, Krist V; Jeppsson, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of different model assumptions when describing biological nutrient removal (BNR) by the activated sludge models (ASM) 1, 2d & 3. The performance of a nitrogen removal (WWTP1) and a combined nitrogen and phosphorus removal (WWTP2) benchmark wastewater treatment plant was compared for a series of model assumptions. Three different model approaches describing BNR are considered. In the reference case, the original model implementations are used to simulate WWTP1 (ASM1 & 3) and WWTP2 (ASM2d). The second set of models includes a reactive settler, which extends the description of the non-reactive TSS sedimentation and transport in the reference case with the full set of ASM processes. Finally, the third set of models is based on including electron acceptor dependency of biomass decay rates for ASM1 (WWTP1) and ASM2d (WWTP2). The results show that incorporation of a reactive settler: (1) increases the hydrolysis of particulates; (2) increases the overall plant's denitrification efficiency by reducing the S(NOx) concentration at the bottom of the clarifier; (3) increases the oxidation of COD compounds; (4) increases X(OHO) and X(ANO) decay; and, finally, (5) increases the growth of X(PAO) and formation of X(PHA,Stor) for ASM2d, which has a major impact on the whole P removal system. Introduction of electron acceptor dependent decay leads to a substantial increase of the concentration of X(ANO), X(OHO) and X(PAO) in the bottom of the clarifier. The paper ends with a critical discussion of the influence of the different model assumptions, and emphasizes the need for a model user to understand the significant differences in simulation results that are obtained when applying different combinations of 'standard' models.

  15. Sensitivity of Population Size Estimation for Violating Parametric Assumptions in Log-linear Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerritse Susanna C.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available An important quality aspect of censuses is the degree of coverage of the population. When administrative registers are available undercoverage can be estimated via capture-recapture methodology. The standard approach uses the log-linear model that relies on the assumption that being in the first register is independent of being in the second register. In models using covariates, this assumption of independence is relaxed into independence conditional on covariates. In this article we describe, in a general setting, how sensitivity analyses can be carried out to assess the robustness of the population size estimate. We make use of log-linear Poisson regression using an offset, to simulate departure from the model. This approach can be extended to the case where we have covariates observed in both registers, and to a model with covariates observed in only one register. The robustness of the population size estimate is a function of implied coverage: as implied coverage is low the robustness is low. We conclude that it is important for researchers to investigate and report the estimated robustness of their population size estimate for quality reasons. Extensions are made to log-linear modeling in case of more than two registers and the multiplier method

  16. Uncovering Implicit Assumptions: a Large-Scale Study on Students' Mental Models of Diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stains, Marilyne; Sevian, Hannah

    2015-12-01

    Students' mental models of diffusion in a gas phase solution were studied through the use of the Structure and Motion of Matter (SAMM) survey. This survey permits identification of categories of ways students think about the structure of the gaseous solute and solvent, the origin of motion of gas particles, and trajectories of solute particles in the gaseous medium. A large sample of data ( N = 423) from students across grade 8 (age 13) through upper-level undergraduate was subjected to a cluster analysis to determine the main mental models present. The cluster analysis resulted in a reduced data set ( N = 308), and then, mental models were ascertained from robust clusters. The mental models that emerged from analysis were triangulated through interview data and characterised according to underlying implicit assumptions that guide and constrain thinking about diffusion of a solute in a gaseous medium. Impacts of students' level of preparation in science and relationships of mental models to science disciplines studied by students were examined. Implications are discussed for the value of this approach to identify typical mental models and the sets of implicit assumptions that constrain them.

  17. Testing the habituation assumption underlying models of parasitoid foraging behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abram, Paul K.; Cusumano, Antonino; Abram, Katrina; Colazza, Stefano; Peri, Ezio

    2017-01-01

    Background. Habituation, a form of non-associative learning, has several well-defined characteristics that apply to a wide range of physiological and behavioral responses in many organisms. In classic patch time allocation models, habituation is considered to be a major mechanistic component of

  18. A note on the translation of conceptual data models into description logics: disjointness and covering assumptions

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Casini, G

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available ). In this paper we propose two simple procedures to assist modelers with integrating these assumptions into their models, thereby allowing for a more complete translation into DLs....

  19. Statistical power to detect violation of the proportional hazards assumption when using the Cox regression model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C

    2018-01-01

    The use of the Cox proportional hazards regression model is widespread. A key assumption of the model is that of proportional hazards. Analysts frequently test the validity of this assumption using statistical significance testing. However, the statistical power of such assessments is frequently unknown. We used Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the statistical power of two different methods for detecting violations of this assumption. When the covariate was binary, we found that a model-based method had greater power than a method based on cumulative sums of martingale residuals. Furthermore, the parametric nature of the distribution of event times had an impact on power when the covariate was binary. Statistical power to detect a strong violation of the proportional hazards assumption was low to moderate even when the number of observed events was high. In many data sets, power to detect a violation of this assumption is likely to be low to modest.

  20. Recursive Subspace Identification of AUV Dynamic Model under General Noise Assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zheping Yan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A recursive subspace identification algorithm for autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs is proposed in this paper. Due to the advantages at handling nonlinearities and couplings, the AUV model investigated here is for the first time constructed as a Hammerstein model with nonlinear feedback in the linear part. To better take the environment and sensor noises into consideration, the identification problem is concerned as an errors-in-variables (EIV one which means that the identification procedure is under general noise assumption. In order to make the algorithm recursively, propagator method (PM based subspace approach is extended into EIV framework to form the recursive identification method called PM-EIV algorithm. With several identification experiments carried out by the AUV simulation platform, the proposed algorithm demonstrates its effectiveness and feasibility.

  1. Analysis of Modeling Assumptions used in Production Cost Models for Renewable Integration Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoll, Brady [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Townsend, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bloom, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Renewable energy integration studies have been published for many different regions exploring the question of how higher penetration of renewable energy will impact the electric grid. These studies each make assumptions about the systems they are analyzing; however the effect of many of these assumptions has not been yet been examined and published. In this paper we analyze the impact of modeling assumptions in renewable integration studies, including the optimization method used (linear or mixed-integer programming) and the temporal resolution of the dispatch stage (hourly or sub-hourly). We analyze each of these assumptions on a large and a small system and determine the impact of each assumption on key metrics including the total production cost, curtailment of renewables, CO2 emissions, and generator starts and ramps. Additionally, we identified the impact on these metrics if a four-hour ahead commitment step is included before the dispatch step and the impact of retiring generators to reduce the degree to which the system is overbuilt. We find that the largest effect of these assumptions is at the unit level on starts and ramps, particularly for the temporal resolution, and saw a smaller impact at the aggregate level on system costs and emissions. For each fossil fuel generator type we measured the average capacity started, average run-time per start, and average number of ramps. Linear programming results saw up to a 20% difference in number of starts and average run time of traditional generators, and up to a 4% difference in the number of ramps, when compared to mixed-integer programming. Utilizing hourly dispatch instead of sub-hourly dispatch saw no difference in coal or gas CC units for either start metric, while gas CT units had a 5% increase in the number of starts and 2% increase in the average on-time per start. The number of ramps decreased up to 44%. The smallest effect seen was on the CO2 emissions and total production cost, with a 0.8% and 0

  2. Assumptions, conjectures, and other miracles: The application of evaluative thinking to theory of change models in community development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archibald, Thomas; Sharrock, Guy; Buckley, Jane; Cook, Natalie

    2016-12-01

    Unexamined and unjustified assumptions are the Achilles' heel of development programs. In this paper, we describe an evaluation capacity building (ECB) approach designed to help community development practitioners work more effectively with assumptions through the intentional infusion of evaluative thinking (ET) into the program planning, monitoring, and evaluation process. We focus specifically on one component of our ET promotion approach involving the creation and analysis of theory of change (ToC) models. We describe our recent efforts to pilot this ET ECB approach with Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in Ethiopia and Zambia. The use of ToC models, plus the addition of ET, is a way to encourage individual and organizational learning and adaptive management that supports more reflective and responsive programming. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

    2006-10-01

    This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis

  4. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern

    2006-10-01

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained

  5. The biosphere at Laxemar. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (eds.)

    2006-10-15

    This is essentially a compilation of a variety of reports concerning the site investigations, the research activities and information derived from other sources important for the safety assessment. The main objective is to present prerequisites, methods and data used, in the biosphere modelling for the safety assessment SR-Can at the Laxemar site. A major part of the report focuses on how site-specific data are used, recalculated or modified in order to be applicable in the safety assessment context; and the methods and sub-models that are the basis for the biosphere modelling. Furthermore, the assumptions made as to the future states of surface ecosystems are mainly presented in this report. A similar report is provided for the Forsmark area. This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. A central tool in the work is the description of the topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary in collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis.

  6. The biosphere at Forsmark. Data, assumptions and models used in the SR-Can assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, Sara; Kautsky, Ulrik; Loefgren, Anders; Soederbaeck, Bjoern (eds.)

    2006-10-15

    This report summarises the method adopted for safety assessment following a radionuclide release into the biosphere. The approach utilises the information about the site as far as possible and presents a way of calculating risk to humans. The parameters are topography, where there is good understanding of the present conditions and the development over time is fairly predictable. The topography affects surface hydrology, sedimentation, size of drainage areas and the characteristics of ecosystems. Other parameters are human nutritional intake, which is assumed to be constant over time, and primary production (photosynthesis), which also is a fairly constant parameter over time. The Landscape Dose Factor approach (LDF) gives an integrated measure for the site and also resolves the issues relating to the size of the group with highest exposure. If this approach is widely accepted as method, still some improvements and refinement are necessary, e.g. collecting missing site data, reanalysing site data, reviewing radionuclide specific data, reformulating ecosystem models and evaluating the results with further sensitivity analysis. The report presents descriptions and estimates not presented elsewhere, as well as summaries of important steps in the biosphere modelling that are presented in more detail in separate reports. The intention is to give the reader a coherent description of the steps taken to calculate doses to biota and humans, including a description of the data used, the rationale for a number of assumptions made during parameterisation, and of how the landscape context is applied in the modelling, and also to present the models used and the results obtained.

  7. Technoeconomic assumptions adopted for the development of a long-term electricity supply model for Cyprus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taliotis, Constantinos; Taibi, Emanuele; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger; Bazilian, Morgan; Welsch, Manuel

    2017-10-01

    The generation mix of Cyprus has been dominated by oil products for decades. In order to conform with European Union and international legislation, a transformation of the supply system is called for. Energy system models can facilitate energy planning into the future, but a large volume of data is required to populate such models. The present data article provides information on key modelling assumptions and input data adopted with the aim of representing the electricity supply system of Cyprus in a separate research article. Data in regards to renewable energy technoeconomic characteristics and investment cost projections, fossil fuel price projections, storage technology characteristics and system operation assumptions are described in this article.

  8. Investigating assumptions of crown archetypes for modelling LiDAR returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Calders, K.; Lewis, P.; Disney, M.; Verbesselt, J.; Herold, M.

    2013-01-01

    LiDAR has the potential to derive canopy structural information such as tree height and leaf area index (LAI), via models of the LiDAR signal. Such models often make assumptions regarding crown shape to simplify parameter retrieval and crown archetypes are typically assumed to contain a turbid

  9. Testing the normality assumption in the sample selection model with an application to travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Klaauw, B.; Koning, R.H.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we introduce a test for the normality assumption in the sample selection model. The test is based on a flexible parametric specification of the density function of the error terms in the model. This specification follows a Hermite series with bivariate normality as a special case.

  10. Testing the normality assumption in the sample selection model with an application to travel demand

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Klauw, B.; Koning, R.H.

    In this article we introduce a test for the normality assumption in the sample selection model. The test is based on a flexible parametric specification of the density function of the error terms in the model. This specification follows a Hermite series with bivariate normality as a special case.

  11. Holistic approach to education and upbringing: Contradictory to the general assumption of life

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlović Ljubiša M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Holistic education is a compprehensive view of education based on the assumption that each individual finds his own identity, meaning and objective in life through the connection with the community, nature and human values such as compassion and peace. Within holistic education the teacher is viewed not as an authority figure who guides and controls, but rather as a 'friend', a facilitator of learning: a guide and a companion in gaining experience. The norm is cooperation rather than competition. However, is this possible in real life? The answer is simple - it is not. Why? The reason why lies in the foundation of life itself: a molecule built in such a way that it does not permit such an idealistic approach to life, and therefore, to education. It is a DNK molecule: the molecule of life exhibiting, among other, the following characteristics: it seeks procreation, and exhibits the tendency of eternal struggle, competition. This is in stark opposition to holistic approach to education which does not recognize competition, struggle, gradation and rivalry. The development of an advanced and socially responsible society demands partial, measured application of holism. This needs to be reflected in education as well: approved competition, clear and fair gradation, the best in certain areas become the elite, with the rest following or to be found solutions in accordance with their abilities.

  12. A computational model to investigate assumptions in the headturn preference procedure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergmann, C.; Bosch, L.F.M. ten; Fikkert, J.P.M.; Boves, L.W.J.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we use a computational model to investigate four assumptions that are tacitly present in interpreting the results of studies on infants' speech processing abilities using the Headturn Preference Procedure (HPP): (1) behavioral differences originate in different processing; (2)

  13. A method for the analysis of assumptions in model-based environmental assessments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kloprogge, P.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Petersen, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    make many assumptions. This inevitably involves – to some degree – subjective judgements by the analysts. Although the potential value-ladenness of model-based assessments has been extensively problematized in literature, this has not so far led to a systematic strategy for analyzing this

  14. Cloud-turbulence interactions: Sensitivity of a general circulation model to closure assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinkop, S.; Roeckner, E.

    1993-01-01

    Several approaches to parameterize the turbulent transport of momentum, heat, water vapour and cloud water for use in a general circulation model (GCM) have been tested in one-dimensional and three-dimensional model simulations. The schemes differ with respect to their closure assumptions (conventional eddy diffusivity model versus turbulent kinetic energy closure) and also regarding their treatment of cloud-turbulence interactions. The basis properties of these parameterizations are discussed first in column simulations of a stratocumulus-topped atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) under a strong subsidence inversion during the KONTROL experiment in the North Sea. It is found that the K-models tend to decouple the cloud layer from the adjacent layers because the turbulent activity is calculated from local variables. The higher-order scheme performs better in this respect because internally generated turbulence can be transported up and down through the action of turbulent diffusion. Thus, the TKE-scheme provides not only a better link between the cloud and the sub-cloud layer but also between the cloud and the inversion as a result of cloud-top entrainment. In the stratocumulus case study, where the cloud is confined by a pronounced subsidence inversion, increased entrainment favours cloud dilution through enhanced evaporation of cloud droplets. In the GCM study, however, additional cloud-top entrainment supports cloud formation because indirect cloud generating processes are promoted through efficient ventilation of the ABL, such as the enhanced moisture supply by surface evaporation and the increased depth of the ABL. As a result, tropical convection is more vigorous, the hydrological cycle is intensified, the whole troposphere becomes warmer and moister in general and the cloudiness in the upper part of the ABL is increased. (orig.)

  15. Assessing the skill of hydrology models at simulating the water cycle in the HJ Andrews LTER: Assumptions, strengths and weaknesses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simulated impacts of climate on hydrology can vary greatly as a function of the scale of the input data, model assumptions, and model structure. Four models are commonly used to simulate streamflow in model assumptions, and model structure. Four models are commonly used to simu...

  16. Comparison of 2D Finite Element Modeling Assumptions with Results From 3D Analysis for Composite Skin-Stiffener Debonding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Ronald; Paris, Isbelle L.; OBrien, T. Kevin; Minguet, Pierre J.

    2004-01-01

    The influence of two-dimensional finite element modeling assumptions on the debonding prediction for skin-stiffener specimens was investigated. Geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses using two-dimensional plane-stress and plane-strain elements as well as three different generalized plane strain type approaches were performed. The computed skin and flange strains, transverse tensile stresses and energy release rates were compared to results obtained from three-dimensional simulations. The study showed that for strains and energy release rate computations the generalized plane strain assumptions yielded results closest to the full three-dimensional analysis. For computed transverse tensile stresses the plane stress assumption gave the best agreement. Based on this study it is recommended that results from plane stress and plane strain models be used as upper and lower bounds. The results from generalized plane strain models fall between the results obtained from plane stress and plane strain models. Two-dimensional models may also be used to qualitatively evaluate the stress distribution in a ply and the variation of energy release rates and mixed mode ratios with delamination length. For more accurate predictions, however, a three-dimensional analysis is required.

  17. Random Regression Models Based On The Skew Elliptically Contoured Distribution Assumptions With Applications To Longitudinal Data *

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Shimin; Rao, Uma; Bartolucci, Alfred A.; Singh, Karan P.

    2011-01-01

    Bartolucci et al.(2003) extended the distribution assumption from the normal (Lyles et al., 2000) to the elliptical contoured distribution (ECD) for random regression models used in analysis of longitudinal data accounting for both undetectable values and informative drop-outs. In this paper, the random regression models are constructed on the multivariate skew ECD. A real data set is used to illustrate that the skew ECDs can fit some unimodal continuous data better than the Gaussian distributions or more general continuous symmetric distributions when the symmetric distribution assumption is violated. Also, a simulation study is done for illustrating the model fitness from a variety of skew ECDs. The software we used is SAS/STAT, V. 9.13. PMID:21637734

  18. On the underlying assumptions of threshold Boolean networks as a model for genetic regulatory network behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Van; McCall, Matthew N; McMurray, Helene R; Almudevar, Anthony

    2013-01-01

    Boolean networks (BoN) are relatively simple and interpretable models of gene regulatory networks. Specifying these models with fewer parameters while retaining their ability to describe complex regulatory relationships is an ongoing methodological challenge. Additionally, extending these models to incorporate variable gene decay rates, asynchronous gene response, and synergistic regulation while maintaining their Markovian nature increases the applicability of these models to genetic regulatory networks (GRN). We explore a previously-proposed class of BoNs characterized by linear threshold functions, which we refer to as threshold Boolean networks (TBN). Compared to traditional BoNs with unconstrained transition functions, these models require far fewer parameters and offer a more direct interpretation. However, the functional form of a TBN does result in a reduction in the regulatory relationships which can be modeled. We show that TBNs can be readily extended to permit self-degradation, with explicitly modeled degradation rates. We note that the introduction of variable degradation compromises the Markovian property fundamental to BoN models but show that a simple state augmentation procedure restores their Markovian nature. Next, we study the effect of assumptions regarding self-degradation on the set of possible steady states. Our findings are captured in two theorems relating self-degradation and regulatory feedback to the steady state behavior of a TBN. Finally, we explore assumptions of synchronous gene response and asynergistic regulation and show that TBNs can be easily extended to relax these assumptions. Applying our methods to the budding yeast cell-cycle network revealed that although the network is complex, its steady state is simplified by the presence of self-degradation and lack of purely positive regulatory cycles.

  19. Using Covert Response Activation to Test Latent Assumptions of Formal Decision-Making Models in Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Servant, Mathieu; White, Corey; Montagnini, Anna; Burle, Borís

    2015-07-15

    Most decisions that we make build upon multiple streams of sensory evidence and control mechanisms are needed to filter out irrelevant information. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making have recently been enriched by attentional mechanisms that weight sensory evidence in a dynamic and goal-directed way. However, the framework retains the longstanding hypothesis that motor activity is engaged only once a decision threshold is reached. To probe latent assumptions of these models, neurophysiological indices are needed. Therefore, we collected behavioral and EMG data in the flanker task, a standard paradigm to investigate decisions about relevance. Although the models captured response time distributions and accuracy data, EMG analyses of response agonist muscles challenged the assumption of independence between decision and motor processes. Those analyses revealed covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") in a fraction of trials in which the correct response was finally given, providing intermediate states of evidence accumulation and response activation at the single-trial level. We extended the models by allowing motor activity to occur before a commitment to a choice and demonstrated that the proposed framework captured the rate, latency, and EMG surface of partial errors, along with the speed of the correction process. In return, EMG data provided strong constraints to discriminate between competing models that made similar behavioral predictions. Our study opens new theoretical and methodological avenues for understanding the links among decision making, cognitive control, and motor execution in humans. Sequential sampling models of perceptual decision making assume that sensory information is accumulated until a criterion quantity of evidence is obtained, from where the decision terminates in a choice and motor activity is engaged. The very existence of covert incorrect EMG activity ("partial error") during the evidence accumulation

  20. On the ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry: philosophical considerations and pragmatic tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giordano James

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A common theme in the contemporary medical model of psychiatry is that pathophysiological processes are centrally involved in the explanation, evaluation, and treatment of mental illnesses. Implied in this perspective is that clinical descriptors of these pathophysiological processes are sufficient to distinguish underlying etiologies. Psychiatric classification requires differentiation between what counts as normality (i.e.- order, and what counts as abnormality (i.e.- disorder. The distinction(s between normality and pathology entail assumptions that are often deeply presupposed, manifesting themselves in statements about what mental disorders are. In this paper, we explicate that realism, naturalism, reductionism, and essentialism are core ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry. We argue that while naturalism, realism, and reductionism can be reconciled with advances in contemporary neuroscience, essentialism - as defined to date - may be conceptually problematic, and we pose an eidetic construct of bio-psychosocial order and disorder based upon complex systems' dynamics. However we also caution against the overuse of any theory, and claim that practical distinctions are important to the establishment of clinical thresholds. We opine that as we move ahead toward both a new edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, and a proposed Decade of the Mind, the task at hand is to re-visit nosologic and ontologic assumptions pursuant to a re-formulation of diagnostic criteria and practice.

  1. On the ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry: philosophical considerations and pragmatic tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    A common theme in the contemporary medical model of psychiatry is that pathophysiological processes are centrally involved in the explanation, evaluation, and treatment of mental illnesses. Implied in this perspective is that clinical descriptors of these pathophysiological processes are sufficient to distinguish underlying etiologies. Psychiatric classification requires differentiation between what counts as normality (i.e.- order), and what counts as abnormality (i.e.- disorder). The distinction(s) between normality and pathology entail assumptions that are often deeply presupposed, manifesting themselves in statements about what mental disorders are. In this paper, we explicate that realism, naturalism, reductionism, and essentialism are core ontological assumptions of the medical model of psychiatry. We argue that while naturalism, realism, and reductionism can be reconciled with advances in contemporary neuroscience, essentialism - as defined to date - may be conceptually problematic, and we pose an eidetic construct of bio-psychosocial order and disorder based upon complex systems' dynamics. However we also caution against the overuse of any theory, and claim that practical distinctions are important to the establishment of clinical thresholds. We opine that as we move ahead toward both a new edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual, and a proposed Decade of the Mind, the task at hand is to re-visit nosologic and ontologic assumptions pursuant to a re-formulation of diagnostic criteria and practice. PMID:20109176

  2. A computational model to investigate assumptions in the headturn preference procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina eBergmann

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we use a computational model to investigate four assumptions that are tacitly present in interpreting the results of studies on infants' speech processing abilities using the Headturn Preference Procedure (HPP: (1 behavioural differences originate in different processing; (2 processing involves some form of recognition; (3 words are segmented from connected speech; and (4 differences between infants should not affect overall results. In addition, we investigate the impact of two potentially important aspects in the design and execution of the experiments: (a the specific voices used in the two parts on HPP experiments (familiarisation and test and (b the experimenter's criterion for what is a sufficient headturn angle. The model is designed to be maximise cognitive plausibility. It takes real speech as input, and it contains a module that converts the output of internal speech processing and recognition into headturns that can yield real-time listening preference measurements. Internal processing is based on distributed episodic representations in combination with a matching procedure based on the assumptions that complex episodes can be decomposed as positive weighted sums of simpler constituents. Model simulations show that the first assumptions hold under two different definitions of recognition. However, explicit segmentation is not necessary to simulate the behaviours observed in infant studies. Differences in attention span between infants can affect the outcomes of an experiment. The same holds for the experimenter's decision criterion. The speakers used in experiments affect outcomes in complex ways that require further investigation. The paper ends with recommendations for future studies using the HPP.

  3. Modeling hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs: Assumptions, limitations and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Nick; Hellard, Margaret; McBryde, Emma Sue

    2016-01-01

    The discovery of highly effective hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatments has led to discussion of elimination and intensified interest in models of HCV transmission. In developed settings, HCV disproportionally affects people who inject drugs (PWID), and models are typically used to provide an evidence base for the effectiveness of interventions such as needle and syringe programs, opioid substitution therapy and more recently treating PWID with new generation therapies to achieve specified reductions in prevalence and / or incidence. This manuscript reviews deterministic compartmental S-I, deterministic compartmental S-I-S and network-based transmission models of HCV among PWID. We detail typical assumptions made when modeling injecting risk behavior, virus transmission, treatment and re-infection and how they correspond with available evidence and empirical data.

  4. Pore Formation During Solidification of Aluminum: Reconciliation of Experimental Observations, Modeling Assumptions, and Classical Nucleation Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefian, Pedram; Tiryakioğlu, Murat

    2018-02-01

    An in-depth discussion of pore formation is presented in this paper by first reinterpreting in situ observations reported in the literature as well as assumptions commonly made to model pore formation in aluminum castings. The physics of pore formation is reviewed through theoretical fracture pressure calculations based on classical nucleation theory for homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation, with and without dissolved gas, i.e., hydrogen. Based on the fracture pressure for aluminum, critical pore size and the corresponding probability of vacancies clustering to form that size have been calculated using thermodynamic data reported in the literature. Calculations show that it is impossible for a pore to nucleate either homogeneously or heterogeneously in aluminum, even with dissolved hydrogen. The formation of pores in aluminum castings can only be explained by inflation of entrained surface oxide films (bifilms) under reduced pressure and/or with dissolved gas, which involves only growth, avoiding any nucleation problem. This mechanism is consistent with the reinterpretations of in situ observations as well as the assumptions made in the literature to model pore formation.

  5. Assessing moderated mediation in linear models requires fewer confounding assumptions than assessing mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeys, Tom; Talloen, Wouter; Goubert, Liesbet; Moerkerke, Beatrijs; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2016-11-01

    It is well known from the mediation analysis literature that the identification of direct and indirect effects relies on strong no unmeasured confounding assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Even in randomized studies the mediator may still be correlated with unobserved prognostic variables that affect the outcome, in which case the mediator's role in the causal process may not be inferred without bias. In the behavioural and social science literature very little attention has been given so far to the causal assumptions required for moderated mediation analysis. In this paper we focus on the index for moderated mediation, which measures by how much the mediated effect is larger or smaller for varying levels of the moderator. We show that in linear models this index can be estimated without bias in the presence of unmeasured common causes of the moderator, mediator and outcome under certain conditions. Importantly, one can thus use the test for moderated mediation to support evidence for mediation under less stringent confounding conditions. We illustrate our findings with data from a randomized experiment assessing the impact of being primed with social deception upon observer responses to others' pain, and from an observational study of individuals who ended a romantic relationship assessing the effect of attachment anxiety during the relationship on mental distress 2 years after the break-up. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  6. NONLINEAR MODELS FOR DESCRIPTION OF CACAO FRUIT GROWTH WITH ASSUMPTION VIOLATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JOEL AUGUSTO MUNIZ

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Cacao (Theobroma cacao L. is an important fruit in the Brazilian economy, which is mainly cultivated in the southern State of Bahia. The optimal stage for harvesting is a major factor for fruit quality and the knowledge on its growth curves can help, especially in identifying the ideal maturation stage for harvesting. Nonlinear regression models have been widely used for description of growth curves. However, several studies in this subject do not consider the residual analysis, the existence of a possible dependence between longitudinal observations, or the sample variance heterogeneity, compromising the modeling quality. The objective of this work was to compare the fit of nonlinear regression models, considering residual analysis and assumption violations, in the description of the cacao (clone Sial-105 fruit growth. The data evaluated were extracted from Brito and Silva (1983, who conducted the experiment in the Cacao Research Center, Ilheus, State of Bahia. The variables fruit length, diameter and volume as a function of fruit age were studied. The use of weighting and incorporation of residual dependencies was efficient, since the modeling became more consistent, improving the model fit. Considering the first-order autoregressive structure, when needed, leads to significant reduction in the residual standard deviation, making the estimates more reliable. The Logistic model was the most efficient for the description of the cacao fruit growth.

  7. On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipień, M.

    2008-09-01

    We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

  8. Does the Assumption on Innovation Process Play an Important Role for Filtered Historical Simulation Model?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emrah Altun

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the financial institutions compute the Value-at-Risk (VaR of their trading portfolios using historical simulation-based methods. In this paper, we examine the Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS model introduced by Barone-Adesi et al. (1999 theoretically and empirically. The main goal of this study is to find an answer for the following question: “Does the assumption on innovation process play an important role for the Filtered Historical Simulation model?”. For this goal, we investigate the performance of FHS model with skewed and fat-tailed innovations distributions such as normal, skew normal, Student’s-t, skew-T, generalized error, and skewed generalized error distributions. The performances of FHS models are evaluated by means of unconditional and conditional likelihood ratio tests and loss functions. Based on the empirical results, we conclude that the FHS models with generalized error and skew-T distributions produce more accurate VaR forecasts.

  9. Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ots

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012, as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source. The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist – all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than

  10. Modelling carbonaceous aerosol from residential solid fuel burning with different assumptions for emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ots, Riinu; Heal, Mathew R.; Young, Dominique E.; Williams, Leah R.; Allan, James D.; Nemitz, Eiko; Di Marco, Chiara; Detournay, Anais; Xu, Lu; Ng, Nga L.; Coe, Hugh; Herndon, Scott C.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Green, David C.; Kuenen, Jeroen J. P.; Reis, Stefan; Vieno, Massimo

    2018-04-01

    Evidence is accumulating that emissions of primary particulate matter (PM) from residential wood and coal combustion in the UK may be underestimated and/or spatially misclassified. In this study, different assumptions for the spatial distribution and total emission of PM from solid fuel (wood and coal) burning in the UK were tested using an atmospheric chemical transport model. Modelled concentrations of the PM components were compared with measurements from aerosol mass spectrometers at four sites in central and Greater London (ClearfLo campaign, 2012), as well as with measurements from the UK black carbon network.The two main alternative emission scenarios modelled were Base4x and combRedist. For Base4x, officially reported PM2.5 from the residential and other non-industrial combustion source sector were increased by a factor of four. For the combRedist experiment, half of the baseline emissions from this same source were redistributed by residential population density to simulate the effect of allocating some emissions to the smoke control areas (that are assumed in the national inventory to have no emissions from this source). The Base4x scenario yielded better daily and hourly correlations with measurements than the combRedist scenario for year-long comparisons of the solid fuel organic aerosol (SFOA) component at the two London sites. However, the latter scenario better captured mean measured concentrations across all four sites. A third experiment, Redist - all emissions redistributed linearly to population density, is also presented as an indicator of the maximum concentrations an assumption like this could yield.The modelled elemental carbon (EC) concentrations derived from the combRedist experiments also compared well with seasonal average concentrations of black carbon observed across the network of UK sites. Together, the two model scenario simulations of SFOA and EC suggest both that residential solid fuel emissions may be higher than inventory

  11. Spatial modelling of assumption of tourism development with geographic IT using

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitka Machalová

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to show the possibilities of spatial modelling and analysing of assumptions of tourism development in the Czech Republic with the objective to make decision-making processes in tourism easier and more efficient (for companies, clients as well as destination managements. The development and placement of tourism depend on the factors (conditions that influence its application in specific areas. These factors are usually divided into three groups: selective, localization and realization. Tourism is inseparably connected with space – countryside. The countryside can be modelled and consecutively analysed by the means of geographical information technologies. With the help of spatial modelling and following analyses the localization and realization conditions in the regions of the Czech Republic have been evaluated. The best localization conditions have been found in the Liberecký region. The capital city of Prague has negligible natural conditions; however, those social ones are on a high level. Next, the spatial analyses have shown that the best realization conditions are provided by the capital city of Prague. Then the Central-Bohemian, South-Moravian, Moravian-Silesian and Karlovarský regions follow. The development of tourism destination is depended not only on the localization and realization factors but it is basically affected by the level of local destination management. Spatial modelling can help destination managers in decision-making processes in order to optimal use of destination potential and efficient targeting their marketing activities.

  12. Modeling prosody: Different approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmichael, Lesley M.

    2002-11-01

    Prosody pervades all aspects of a speech signal, both in terms of raw acoustic outcomes and linguistically meaningful units, from the phoneme to the discourse unit. It is carried in the suprasegmental features of fundamental frequency, loudness, and duration. Several models have been developed to account for the way prosody organizes speech, and they vary widely in terms of their theoretical assumptions, organizational primitives, actual procedures of application to speech, and intended use (e.g., to generate speech from text vs. to model the prosodic phonology of a language). In many cases, these models overtly contradict one another with regard to their fundamental premises or their identification of the perceptible objects of linguistic prosody. These competing models are directly compared. Each model is applied to the same speech samples. This parallel analysis allows for a critical inspection of each model and its efficacy in assessing the suprasegmental behavior of the speech. The analyses illustrate how different approaches are better equipped to account for different aspects of prosody. Viewing the models and their successes from an objective perspective allows for creative possibilities in terms of combining strengths from models which might otherwise be considered fundamentally incompatible.

  13. Endogenous Fishing Mortality in Life History Models: Relaxing Some Implicit Assumptions

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Martin D.

    2007-01-01

    Life history models can include a wide range of biological and ecological features that affect exploited fish populations. However, they typically treat fishing mortality as an exogenous parameter. Implicitly, this approach assumes that the supply of fishing effort is perfectly inelastic. That is, the supply curve of effort is vertical. Fishery modelers often run simulations for different values of fishing mortality, but his exercise also assumes vertical supply and simply explores a series o...

  14. Assumptions to the model of managing knowledge workers in modern organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igielski Michał

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes in the twenty-first century are faster, suddenly appear, not always desirable for the smooth functioning of the company. This is the domain of globalization, in which new events - opportunities or threats, forcing the company all the time to act. More and more things depend on the intangible assets of the undertaking, its strategic potential. Certain types of work require more knowledge, experience and independent thinking, and custom than others. Therefore in this article the author has taken up the subject of knowledge workers in contemporary organizations. The aim of the study is to attempt to create assumptions about the knowledge management model in these organizations, based on literature analysis and empirical research. In this regard, the author describes the contemporary conditions of employee management and the skills and competences of knowledge workers. In addition, he conducted research (2016 in 100 medium enterprises in the province of Pomerania, using a tool in the form of a questionnaire and an interview. Already at the beginning of the analysis of the data collected, it turned out that for all employers it should be important to discern differences in the creation of a new category of managers who have knowledge useful for the functioning of the company. Moreover, with the experience gained in a similar research process previously carried out in companies from the Baltic Sea Region, the author knew about the positive influence of these people on creating new solutions or improving the quality of already existing products or services.

  15. TESTING THE ASSUMPTIONS AND INTERPRETING THE RESULTS OF THE RASCH MODEL USING LOG-LINEAR PROCEDURES IN SPSS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    TENVERGERT, E; GILLESPIE, M; KINGMA, J

    This paper shows how to use the log-linear subroutine of SPSS to fit the Rasch model. It also shows how to fit less restrictive models obtained by relaxing specific assumptions of the Rasch model. Conditional maximum likelihood estimation was achieved by including dummy variables for the total

  16. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  17. Sensitivity of wetland methane emissions to model assumptions: application and model testing against site observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Meng

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Methane emissions from natural wetlands and rice paddies constitute a large proportion of atmospheric methane, but the magnitude and year-to-year variation of these methane sources are still unpredictable. Here we describe and evaluate the integration of a methane biogeochemical model (CLM4Me; Riley et al., 2011 into the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4CN in order to better explain spatial and temporal variations in methane emissions. We test new functions for soil pH and redox potential that impact microbial methane production in soils. We also constrain aerenchyma in plants in always-inundated areas in order to better represent wetland vegetation. Satellite inundated fraction is explicitly prescribed in the model, because there are large differences between simulated fractional inundation and satellite observations, and thus we do not use CLM4-simulated hydrology to predict inundated areas. A rice paddy module is also incorporated into the model, where the fraction of land used for rice production is explicitly prescribed. The model is evaluated at the site level with vegetation cover and water table prescribed from measurements. Explicit site level evaluations of simulated methane emissions are quite different than evaluating the grid-cell averaged emissions against available measurements. Using a baseline set of parameter values, our model-estimated average global wetland emissions for the period 1993–2004 were 256 Tg CH4 yr−1 (including the soil sink and rice paddy emissions in the year 2000 were 42 Tg CH4 yr−1. Tropical wetlands contributed 201 Tg CH4 yr−1, or 78% of the global wetland flux. Northern latitude (>50 N systems contributed 12 Tg CH4 yr−1. However, sensitivity studies show a large range (150–346 Tg CH4 yr−1 in predicted global methane emissions (excluding emissions from rice paddies. The large range is

  18. Matrix Diffusion for Performance Assessment - Experimental Evidence, Modelling Assumptions and Open Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jakob, A.

    2004-07-01

    In this report a comprehensive overview on the matrix diffusion of solutes in fractured crystalline rocks is presented. Some examples from observations in crystalline bedrock are used to illustrate that matrix diffusion indeed acts on various length scales. Fickian diffusion is discussed in detail followed by some considerations on rock porosity. Due to the fact that the dual-porosity medium model is a very common and versatile method for describing solute transport in fractured porous media, the transport equations and the fundamental assumptions, approximations and simplifications are discussed in detail. There is a variety of geometrical aspects, processes and events which could influence matrix diffusion. The most important of these, such as, e.g., the effect of the flow-wetted fracture surface, channelling and the limited extent of the porous rock for matrix diffusion etc., are addressed. In a further section open issues and unresolved problems related to matrix diffusion are mentioned. Since matrix diffusion is one of the key retarding processes in geosphere transport of dissolved radionuclide species, matrix diffusion was consequently taken into account in past performance assessments of radioactive waste repositories in crystalline host rocks. Some issues regarding matrix diffusion are site-specific while others are independent of the specific situation of a planned repository for radioactive wastes. Eight different performance assessments from Finland, Sweden and Switzerland were considered with the aim of finding out how matrix diffusion was addressed, and whether a consistent picture emerges regarding the varying methodology of the different radioactive waste organisations. In the final section of the report some conclusions are drawn and an outlook is given. An extensive bibliography provides the reader with the key papers and reports related to matrix diffusion. (author)

  19. Influence of road network and population demand assumptions in evacuation modeling for distant tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Kevin; Wood, Nathan J.; Frazier, Tim G.

    2017-01-01

    Tsunami evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically focused on local events where at-risk individuals must move on foot in a matter of minutes to safety. Less attention has been placed on distant tsunamis, where evacuations unfold over several hours, are often dominated by vehicle use and are managed by public safety officials. Traditional traffic simulation models focus on estimating clearance times but often overlook the influence of varying population demand, alternative modes, background traffic, shadow evacuation, and traffic management alternatives. These factors are especially important for island communities with limited egress options to safety. We use the coastal community of Balboa Island, California (USA), as a case study to explore the range of potential clearance times prior to wave arrival for a distant tsunami scenario. We use a first-in–first-out queuing simulation environment to estimate variations in clearance times, given varying assumptions of the evacuating population (demand) and the road network over which they evacuate (supply). Results suggest clearance times are less than wave arrival times for a distant tsunami, except when we assume maximum vehicle usage for residents, employees, and tourists for a weekend scenario. A two-lane bridge to the mainland was the primary traffic bottleneck, thereby minimizing the effect of departure times, shadow evacuations, background traffic, boat-based evacuations, and traffic light timing on overall community clearance time. Reducing vehicular demand generally reduced clearance time, whereas improvements to road capacity had mixed results. Finally, failure to recognize non-residential employee and tourist populations in the vehicle demand substantially underestimated clearance time.

  20. Usefulness of an equal-probability assumption for out-of-equilibrium states: A master equation approach

    KAUST Repository

    Nogawa, Tomoaki

    2012-10-18

    We examine the effectiveness of assuming an equal probability for states far from equilibrium. For this aim, we propose a method to construct a master equation for extensive variables describing nonstationary nonequilibrium dynamics. The key point of the method is the assumption that transient states are equivalent to the equilibrium state that has the same extensive variables, i.e., an equal probability holds for microscopic states in nonequilibrium. We demonstrate an application of this method to the critical relaxation of the two-dimensional Potts model by Monte Carlo simulations. While the one-variable description, which is adequate for equilibrium, yields relaxation dynamics that are very fast, the redundant two-variable description well reproduces the true dynamics quantitatively. These results suggest that some class of the nonequilibrium state can be described with a small extension of degrees of freedom, which may lead to an alternative way to understand nonequilibrium phenomena. © 2012 American Physical Society.

  1. Stability and disease persistence in an age-structured SIS epidemic model with vertical transmission and proportionate mixing assumption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Doma, M.

    2001-02-01

    The stability of the endemic equilibrium of an SIS age-structured epidemic model of a vertically as well as horizontally transmitted disease is investigated when the force of infection is of proportionate mixing assumption type. We also investigate the uniform weak disease persistence. (author)

  2. Preliminary Review of Models, Assumptions, and Key Data used in Performance Assessments and Composite Analysis at the Idaho National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arthur S. Rood; Swen O. Magnuson

    2009-07-01

    This document is in response to a request by Ming Zhu, DOE-EM to provide a preliminary review of existing models and data used in completed or soon to be completed Performance Assessments and Composite Analyses (PA/CA) documents, to identify codes, methodologies, main assumptions, and key data sets used.

  3. Do irregular grids make a difference? Relaxing the spatial regularity assumption, in cellular models of social dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flache, A; Hegselmann, R

    2001-01-01

    Three decades of CA-modelling in the social sciences have shown that the cellular automata framework is a useful tool to explore the relationship between micro assumptions and macro outcomes in social dynamics. However, virtually all CA-applications in the social sciences rely on a potentially

  4. Discrete-State and Continuous Models of Recognition Memory: Testing Core Properties under Minimal Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellen, David; Klauer, Karl Christoph

    2014-01-01

    A classic discussion in the recognition-memory literature concerns the question of whether recognition judgments are better described by continuous or discrete processes. These two hypotheses are instantiated by the signal detection theory model (SDT) and the 2-high-threshold model, respectively. Their comparison has almost invariably relied on…

  5. A Memory-Based Model of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder: Evaluating Basic Assumptions Underlying the PTSD Diagnosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, David C.; Berntsen, Dorthe; Bohni, Malene Klindt

    2008-01-01

    In the mnemonic model of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), the current memory of a negative event, not the event itself, determines symptoms. The model is an alternative to the current event-based etiology of PTSD represented in the "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed., text rev.; American Psychiatric Association,…

  6. The reality behind the assumptions: Modelling and simulation support for the SAAF

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, K

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available : Modelling and simulation support for the SAAF Kavendra Naidoo Military Aerospace Trends & Strategy Military aerospace trends • National security includes other dimensions: social, economic development, environmental, energy security, etc...

  7. Nucleon deep-inelastic structure functions in a quark model with factorizability assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linkevich, A.D.; Skachkov, N.B.

    1979-01-01

    Formula for structure functions of deep-inelastic electron scattering on nucleon is derived. For this purpose the dynamic model of factorizing quark amplitudes is used. It has been found that with increase of Q 2 transferred pulse square at great values of x kinemastic variable the decrease of structure function values is observed. At x single values the increase of structure function values is found. The comparison With experimental data shows a good agreement of the model with experiment

  8. Sensitivity Analysis Without Assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Peng; VanderWeele, Tyler J

    2016-05-01

    Unmeasured confounding may undermine the validity of causal inference with observational studies. Sensitivity analysis provides an attractive way to partially circumvent this issue by assessing the potential influence of unmeasured confounding on causal conclusions. However, previous sensitivity analysis approaches often make strong and untestable assumptions such as having an unmeasured confounder that is binary, or having no interaction between the effects of the exposure and the confounder on the outcome, or having only one unmeasured confounder. Without imposing any assumptions on the unmeasured confounder or confounders, we derive a bounding factor and a sharp inequality such that the sensitivity analysis parameters must satisfy the inequality if an unmeasured confounder is to explain away the observed effect estimate or reduce it to a particular level. Our approach is easy to implement and involves only two sensitivity parameters. Surprisingly, our bounding factor, which makes no simplifying assumptions, is no more conservative than a number of previous sensitivity analysis techniques that do make assumptions. Our new bounding factor implies not only the traditional Cornfield conditions that both the relative risk of the exposure on the confounder and that of the confounder on the outcome must satisfy but also a high threshold that the maximum of these relative risks must satisfy. Furthermore, this new bounding factor can be viewed as a measure of the strength of confounding between the exposure and the outcome induced by a confounder.

  9. Model of the electric energy market in Poland. Assumptions, structure and operation principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kulagowski, W.

    1994-01-01

    Present state of works on model of electric energy market in Poland with special consideration of bulk energy market is presented. The designed model based on progressive, evolutionary changes is so elastic, that when keeping general structure and fundamentals the particular solutions can be verified or corrected. The changes in the electric energy market are considered as an integral part of existing restructuring process of Polish electric energy sector. The rate of those changes and the mode of their introduction influence on introduction speed of the new solutions. (author). 14 refs, 4 figs

  10. Multiverse Assumptions and Philosophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Johnson

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Multiverses are predictions based on theories. Focusing on each theory’s assumptions is key to evaluating a proposed multiverse. Although accepted theories of particle physics and cosmology contain non-intuitive features, multiverse theories entertain a host of “strange” assumptions classified as metaphysical (outside objective experience, concerned with fundamental nature of reality, ideas that cannot be proven right or wrong topics such as: infinity, duplicate yous, hypothetical fields, more than three space dimensions, Hilbert space, advanced civilizations, and reality established by mathematical relationships. It is easy to confuse multiverse proposals because many divergent models exist. This overview defines the characteristics of eleven popular multiverse proposals. The characteristics compared are: initial conditions, values of constants, laws of nature, number of space dimensions, number of universes, and fine tuning explanations. Future scientific experiments may validate selected assumptions; but until they do, proposals by philosophers may be as valid as theoretical scientific theories.

  11. White Noise Assumptions Revisited : Regression Models and Statistical Designs for Simulation Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2006-01-01

    Classic linear regression models and their concomitant statistical designs assume a univariate response and white noise.By definition, white noise is normally, independently, and identically distributed with zero mean.This survey tries to answer the following questions: (i) How realistic are these

  12. Accurate reduction of a model of circadian rhythms by delayed quasi steady state assumptions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vejchodský, Tomáš

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 139, č. 4 (2014), s. 577-585 ISSN 0862-7959 Grant - others:European Commission(XE) StochDetBioModel(328008) Program:FP7 Institutional support: RVO:67985840 Keywords : biochemical networks * gene regulatory networks * oscillating systems * periodic solution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics http://hdl.handle.net/10338.dmlcz/144135

  13. Violation of the Sphericity Assumption and Its Effect on Type-I Error Rates in Repeated Measures ANOVA and Multi-Level Linear Models (MLM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Haverkamp

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of violations of the sphericity assumption on Type I error rates for different methodical approaches of repeated measures analysis using a simulation approach. In contrast to previous simulation studies on this topic, up to nine measurement occasions were considered. Effects of the level of inter-correlations between measurement occasions on Type I error rates were considered for the first time. Two populations with non-violation of the sphericity assumption, one with uncorrelated measurement occasions and one with moderately correlated measurement occasions, were generated. One population with violation of the sphericity assumption combines uncorrelated with highly correlated measurement occasions. A second population with violation of the sphericity assumption combines moderately correlated and highly correlated measurement occasions. From these four populations without any between-group effect or within-subject effect 5,000 random samples were drawn. Finally, the mean Type I error rates for Multilevel linear models (MLM with an unstructured covariance matrix (MLM-UN, MLM with compound-symmetry (MLM-CS and for repeated measures analysis of variance (rANOVA models (without correction, with Greenhouse-Geisser-correction, and Huynh-Feldt-correction were computed. To examine the effect of both the sample size and the number of measurement occasions, sample sizes of n = 20, 40, 60, 80, and 100 were considered as well as measurement occasions of m = 3, 6, and 9. With respect to rANOVA, the results plead for a use of rANOVA with Huynh-Feldt-correction, especially when the sphericity assumption is violated, the sample size is rather small and the number of measurement occasions is large. For MLM-UN, the results illustrate a massive progressive bias for small sample sizes (n = 20 and m = 6 or more measurement occasions. This effect could not be found in previous simulation studies with a smaller number of measurement

  14. The reality behind the assumptions: Modelling and simulation support for the SAAF

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naidoo, K

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available : Modelling and simulation support for the SAAF Kavendra Naidoo Military Aerospace Trends & Strategy Military aerospace trends • National security includes other dimensions: social, economic development, environmental, energy security, etc... warfare … to this! http://sistemasdearmas.com.br/ggn/ggn07strikewar.html http://xbradtc.com/2013/12/19/cutaway-thursday-saab-gripen/ The Defence Review • DEFENCE SCIENCE, ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY CAPABILITY – GUIDELINE • 49. Science, Engineering...

  15. Sensitivity to assumptions in models of generalist predation on a cyclic prey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthiopoulos, Jason; Graham, Kate; Smout, Sophie; Asseburg, Christian; Redpath, Stephen; Thirgood, Simon; Hudson, Peter; Harwood, John

    2007-10-01

    Ecological theory predicts that generalist predators should damp or suppress long-term periodic fluctuations (cycles) in their prey populations and depress their average densities. However, the magnitude of these impacts is likely to vary depending on the availability of alternative prey species and the nature of ecological mechanisms driving the prey cycles. These multispecies effects can be modeled explicitly if parameterized functions relating prey consumption to prey abundance, and realistic population dynamical models for the prey, are available. These requirements are met by the interaction between the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) and three of its prey species in the United Kingdom, the Meadow Pipit (Anthus pratensis), the field vole (Microtus agrestis), and the Red Grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). We used this system to investigate how the availability of alternative prey and the way in which prey dynamics are modeled might affect the behavior of simple trophic networks. We generated cycles in one of the prey species (Red Grouse) in three different ways: through (1) the interaction between grouse density and macroparasites, (2) the interaction between grouse density and male grouse aggressiveness, and (3) a generic, delayed density-dependent mechanism. Our results confirm that generalist predation can damp or suppress grouse cycles, but only when the densities of alternative prey are low. They also demonstrate that diametrically opposite indirect effects between pairs of prey species can occur together in simple systems. In this case, pipits and grouse are apparent competitors, whereas voles and grouse are apparent facilitators. Finally, we found that the quantitative impacts of the predator on prey density differed among the three models of prey dynamics, and these differences were robust to uncertainty in parameter estimation and environmental stochasticity.

  16. Oceanographic and behavioural assumptions in models of the fate of coral and coral reef fish larvae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolanski, Eric; Kingsford, Michael J

    2014-09-06

    A predictive model of the fate of coral reef fish larvae in a reef system is proposed that combines the oceanographic processes of advection and turbulent diffusion with the biological process of horizontal swimming controlled by olfactory and auditory cues within the timescales of larval development. In the model, auditory cues resulted in swimming towards the reefs when within hearing distance of the reef, whereas olfactory cues resulted in the larvae swimming towards the natal reef in open waters by swimming against the concentration gradients in the smell plume emanating from the natal reef. The model suggested that the self-seeding rate may be quite large, at least 20% for the larvae of rapidly developing reef fish species, which contrasted with a self-seeding rate less than 2% for non-swimming coral larvae. The predicted self-recruitment rate of reefs was sensitive to a number of parameters, such as the time at which the fish larvae reach post-flexion, the pelagic larval duration of the larvae, the horizontal turbulent diffusion coefficient in reefal waters and the horizontal swimming behaviour of the fish larvae in response to auditory and olfactory cues, for which better field data are needed. Thus, the model suggested that high self-seeding rates for reef fish are possible, even in areas where the 'sticky water' effect is minimal and in the absence of long-term trapping in oceanic fronts and/or large-scale oceanic eddies or filaments that are often argued to facilitate the return of the larvae after long periods of drifting at sea. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  17. In modelling effects of global warming, invalid assumptions lead to unrealistic projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefevre, Sjannie; McKenzie, David J; Nilsson, Göran E

    2018-02-01

    In their recent Opinion, Pauly and Cheung () provide new projections of future maximum fish weight (W ∞ ). Based on criticism by Lefevre et al. (2017) they changed the scaling exponent for anabolism, d G . Here we find that changing both d G and the scaling exponent for catabolism, b, leads to the projection that fish may even become 98% smaller with a 1°C increase in temperature. This unrealistic outcome indicates that the current W ∞ is unlikely to be explained by the Gill-Oxygen Limitation Theory (GOLT) and, therefore, GOLT cannot be used as a mechanistic basis for model projections about fish size in a warmer world. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Flawed Assumptions, Models and Decision Making: Misconceptions Concerning Human Elements in Complex System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FORSYTHE, JAMES C.; WENNER, CAREN A.

    1999-01-01

    The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate

  19. Flawed Assumptions, Models and Decision Making: Misconceptions Concerning Human Elements in Complex System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    FORSYTHE,JAMES C.; WENNER,CAREN A.

    1999-11-03

    The history of high consequence accidents is rich with events wherein the actions, or inaction, of humans was critical to the sequence of events preceding the accident. Moreover, it has been reported that human error may contribute to 80% of accidents, if not more (dougherty and Fragola, 1988). Within the safety community, this reality is widely recognized and there is a substantially greater awareness of the human contribution to system safety today than has ever existed in the past. Despite these facts, and some measurable reduction in accident rates, when accidents do occur, there is a common lament. No matter how hard we try, we continue to have accidents. Accompanying this lament, there is often bewilderment expressed in statements such as, ''There's no explanation for why he/she did what they did''. It is believed that these statements are a symptom of inadequacies in how they think about humans and their role within technological systems. In particular, while there has never been a greater awareness of human factors, conceptual models of human involvement in engineered systems are often incomplete and in some cases, inaccurate.

  20. On testing the missing at random assumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2006-01-01

    Most approaches to learning from incomplete data are based on the assumption that unobserved values are missing at random (mar). While the mar assumption, as such, is not testable, it can become testable in the context of other distributional assumptions, e.g. the naive Bayes assumption. In this ......Most approaches to learning from incomplete data are based on the assumption that unobserved values are missing at random (mar). While the mar assumption, as such, is not testable, it can become testable in the context of other distributional assumptions, e.g. the naive Bayes assumption...

  1. Early Validation of Automation Plant Control Software using Simulation Based on Assumption Modeling and Validation Use Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Brandstetter

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In automation plants, technical processes must be conducted in a way that products, substances, or services are produced reliably, with sufficient quality and with minimal strain on resources. A key driver in conducting these processes is the automation plant’s control software, which controls the technical plant components and thereby affects the physical, chemical, and mechanical processes that take place in automation plants. To this end, the control software of an automation plant must adhere to strict process requirements arising from the technical processes, and from the physical plant design. Currently, the validation of the control software often starts late in the engineering process in many cases – once the automation plant is almost completely constructed. However, as widely acknowledged, the later the control software of the automation plant is validated, the higher the effort for correcting revealed defects is, which can lead to serious budget overruns and project delays. In this article we propose an approach that allows the early validation of automation control software against the technical plant processes and assumptions about the physical plant design by means of simulation. We demonstrate the application of our approach on the example of an actual plant project from the automation industry and present it’s technical implementation

  2. 76 FR 52353 - Assumption Buster Workshop: “Current Implementations of Cloud Computing Indicate a New Approach...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-22

    ... explored in this series is cloud computing. The workshop on this topic will be held in Gaithersburg, MD on October 21, 2011. Assertion: ``Current implementations of cloud computing indicate a new approach to security'' Implementations of cloud computing have provided new ways of thinking about how to secure data...

  3. The Role Of Modeling Assumptions And Policy Instruments in Evaluating The Global Implications Of U.S. Biofuel Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo A [ORNL; Kline, Keith L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    The primary objective of current U.S. biofuel law the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) is to reduce dependence on imported oil, but the law also requires biofuels to meet carbon emission reduction thresholds relative to petroleum fuels. EISA created a renewable fuel standard with annual targets for U.S. biofuel use that climb gradually from 9 billion gallons per year in 2008 to 36 billion gallons (or about 136 billion liters) of biofuels per year by 2022. The most controversial aspects of the biofuel policy have centered on the global social and environmental implications of its potential land use effects. In particular, there is an ongoing debate about whether indirect land use change (ILUC) make biofuels a net source, rather sink, of carbon emissions. However, estimates of ILUC induced by biofuel production and use can only be inferred through modeling. This paper evaluates how model structure, underlying assumptions, and the representation of policy instruments influence the results of U.S. biofuel policy simulations. The analysis shows that differences in these factors can lead to divergent model estimates of land use and economic effects. Estimates of the net conversion of forests and grasslands induced by U.S. biofuel policy range from 0.09 ha/1000 gallons described in this paper to 0.73 ha/1000 gallons from early studies in the ILUC change debate. We note that several important factors governing LUC change remain to be examined. Challenges that must be addressed to improve global land use change modeling are highlighted.

  4. Contextuality under weak assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, Andrew W; Rudolph, Terry; Wallman, Joel J; Pashayan, Hakop; Bartlett, Stephen D

    2017-01-01

    The presence of contextuality in quantum theory was first highlighted by Bell, Kochen and Specker, who discovered that for quantum systems of three or more dimensions, measurements could not be viewed as deterministically revealing pre-existing properties of the system. More precisely, no model can assign deterministic outcomes to the projectors of a quantum measurement in a way that depends only on the projector and not the context (the full set of projectors) in which it appeared, despite the fact that the Born rule probabilities associated with projectors are independent of the context. A more general, operational definition of contextuality introduced by Spekkens, which we will term ‘probabilistic contextuality’, drops the assumption of determinism and allows for operations other than measurements to be considered contextual. Even two-dimensional quantum mechanics can be shown to be contextual under this generalised notion. Probabilistic noncontextuality represents the postulate that elements of an operational theory that cannot be distinguished from each other based on the statistics of arbitrarily many repeated experiments (they give rise to the same operational probabilities) are ontologically identical. In this paper, we introduce a framework that enables us to distinguish between different noncontextuality assumptions in terms of the relationships between the ontological representations of objects in the theory given a certain relation between their operational representations. This framework can be used to motivate and define a ‘possibilistic’ analogue, encapsulating the idea that elements of an operational theory that cannot be unambiguously distinguished operationally can also not be unambiguously distinguished ontologically. We then prove that possibilistic noncontextuality is equivalent to an alternative notion of noncontextuality proposed by Hardy. Finally, we demonstrate that these weaker noncontextuality assumptions are sufficient to prove

  5. Relevance of collisionality in the transport model assumptions for divertor detachment multi-fluid modelling on JET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiesen, S.; Fundamenski, W.; Wischmeier, M.

    2011-01-01

    A revised formulation of the perpendicular diffusive transport model in 2D multi-fluid edge codes is proposed. Based on theoretical predictions and experimental observations a dependence on collisionality is introduced into the transport model of EDGE2D–EIRENE. The impact on time-dependent JET gas...... fuelled ramp-up scenario modelling of the full transient from attached divertor into the high-recycling regime, following a target flux roll over into divertor detachment, ultimately ending in a density limit is presented. A strong dependence on divertor geometry is observed which can mask features...... of the new transport model: a smoothly decaying target recycling flux roll over, an asymmetric drop of temperature and pressure along the field lines as well as macroscopic power dependent plasma oscillations near the density limit which had been previously observed also experimentally. The latter effect...

  6. Do unreal assumptions pervert behaviour?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Verner C.

    After conducting a series of experiments involving economics students Miller concludes: "The experience of taking a course in microeconomics actually altered students' conceptions of the appropriateness of acting in a self-interested manner, not merely their definition of self-interest." Being...... become taken for granted and tacitly included into theories and models of management. Guiding business and manage¬ment to behave in a fashion that apparently makes these assumptions become "true". Thus in fact making theories and models become self-fulfilling prophecies. The paper elucidates some...... of the basic assumptions underlying the theories found in economics. Assumptions relating to the primacy of self-interest, to resourceful, evaluative, maximising models of man, to incentive systems and to agency theory. The major part of the paper then discusses how these assumptions and theories may pervert...

  7. TWODEE: the Health and Safety Laboratory's shallow layer model for heavy gas dispersion. Part 1. Mathematical basis and physical assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankin, R K; Britter, R E

    1999-05-14

    The Major Hazard Assessment Unit of the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) provides advice to local planning authorities on land use planning in the vicinity of major hazard sites. For sites with the potential for large scale releases of toxic heavy gases such as chlorine this advice is based on risk levels and is informed by use of the computerised risk assessment tool RISKAT [C. Nussey, M. Pantony, R. Smallwood, HSE's risk assessment tool RISKAT, Major Hazards: Onshore and Offshore, October, 1992]. At present RISKAT uses consequence models for heavy gas dispersion that assume flat terrain. This paper is the first part of a three part paper. Part 1 describes the mathematical basis of TWODEE, the Health and Safety Laboratory's shallow layer model for heavy gas dispersion. The shallow layer approach used by TWODEE is a compromise between the complexity of CFD models and the simpler integral models. Motivated by the low aspect ratio of typical heavy gas clouds, shallow layer models use depth-averaged variables to describe the flow behaviour. This approach is particularly well suited to assess the effect of complex terrain because the downslope buoyancy force is easily included. Entrainment may be incorporated into a shallow layer model by the use of empirical formulae. Part 2 of this paper presents the numerical scheme used to solve the TWODEE mathematical model, and validated against theoretical results. Part 3 compares the results of the TWODEE model with the experimental results taken at Thorney Island [J. McQuaid, B. Roebuck, The dispersion of heavier-than-air gas from a fenced enclosure. Final report to the US Coast Guard on contract with the Health and Safety Executive, Technical Report RPG 1185, Safety Engineering Laboratory, Research and Laboratory Services Division, Broad Lane, Sheffield S3 7HQ, UK, 1985]. Crown Copyright Copyright 1999 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

  8. Analysis of post-Byzantine icons from the Church of the Assumption in Cephalonia, Ionian Islands, Greece: a multi-method approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouloumpi, Eleni; Vandenabeele, Peter; Lawson, Graham; Pavlidis, Vassilios; Moens, Luc

    2007-08-13

    A multi-method approach has been developed for the characterisation of the proteinaceous binding media, drying oils and pigments present in samples from the panel paintings of the Church of the Assumption in Cephalonia (Ionian Islands, Greece). The analytical protocol involved the use of scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray analysis (SEM/EDX), Raman spectroscopy and gas chromatography. The identification of the pigments was achieved by SEM/EDX and Raman spectroscopy. The latter technique was also used for the detection of the binding media, while their characterisation was achieved by gas chromatographic analysis of ethyl chloroformate derivatives. The aim of this multi-method protocol was to obtain as much information as possible from the panel paintings of the Church of the Assumption, through non-destructive methods, before proceeding to gas chromatography. Little scientific information is available for the understanding of the construction technique and the materials used by the post-Byzantine artists and whatever is available comes mainly from artists' manuals. One of the aims of this paper is to provide a scientific background to the technology of the Ionian post-Byzantine icons.

  9. Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Ellen S; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration-response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O(3))-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration-response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA's 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O(3). Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O(3)-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O(3)-related human health effects resulting from climate change.

  10. LncNetP, a systematical lncRNA prioritization approach based on ceRNA and disease phenotype association assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chaohan; Ping, Yanyan; Zhao, Hongying; Ning, Shangwei; Xia, Peng; Wang, Weida; Wan, Linyun; Li, Jie; Zhang, Li; Yu, Lei; Xiao, Yun

    2017-12-29

    Our knowledge of lncRNA is very limited and discovering novel disease-related long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) has been a major research challenge in cancer studies. In this work, we developed an LncRNA Network-based Prioritization approach, named "LncNetP" based on the competing endogenous RNA (ceRNA) and disease phenotype association assumptions. Through application to 11 cancer types with 3089 common lncRNA and miRNA samples from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), our approach yielded an average area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 83.87%, with the highest AUC (95.22%) for renal cell carcinoma, by the leave-one-out cross validation strategy. Moreover, we demonstrated the excellent performance of our approach by evaluating the influencing factors including disease phenotype associations, known disease lncRNAs and the numbers of cancer types. Comparisons with previous methods further suggested the integrative importance of our approach. Taking hepatocellular carcinoma (LIHC) as a case study, we predicted four candidate lncRNA genes, RHPN1-AS1, AC007389.1, LINC01116 and BMS1P20 that may serve as novel disease risk factors for disease diagnosis and prognosis. In summary, our lncRNA prioritization strategy can efficiently identify disease-related lncRNAs and help researchers better understand the important roles of lncRNAs in human cancers.

  11. HEDR modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

    1992-07-01

    This report details the conceptual approaches to be used in calculating radiation doses to individuals throughout the various periods of operations at the Hanford Site. The report considers the major environmental transport pathways--atmospheric, surface water, and ground water--and projects and appropriate modeling technique for each. The modeling sequence chosen for each pathway depends on the available data on doses, the degree of confidence justified by such existing data, and the level of sophistication deemed appropriate for the particular pathway and time period being considered

  12. A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

  13. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  14. Linking assumptions in amblyopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    LEVI, DENNIS M.

    2017-01-01

    Over the last 35 years or so, there has been substantial progress in revealing and characterizing the many interesting and sometimes mysterious sensory abnormalities that accompany amblyopia. A goal of many of the studies has been to try to make the link between the sensory losses and the underlying neural losses, resulting in several hypotheses about the site, nature, and cause of amblyopia. This article reviews some of these hypotheses, and the assumptions that link the sensory losses to specific physiological alterations in the brain. Despite intensive study, it turns out to be quite difficult to make a simple linking hypothesis, at least at the level of single neurons, and the locus of the sensory loss remains elusive. It is now clear that the simplest notion—that reduced contrast sensitivity of neurons in cortical area V1 explains the reduction in contrast sensitivity—is too simplistic. Considerations of noise, noise correlations, pooling, and the weighting of information also play a critically important role in making perceptual decisions, and our current models of amblyopia do not adequately take these into account. Indeed, although the reduction of contrast sensitivity is generally considered to reflect “early” neural changes, it seems plausible that it reflects changes at many stages of visual processing. PMID:23879956

  15. Multiverse Assumptions and Philosophy

    OpenAIRE

    James R. Johnson

    2018-01-01

    Multiverses are predictions based on theories. Focusing on each theory’s assumptions is key to evaluating a proposed multiverse. Although accepted theories of particle physics and cosmology contain non-intuitive features, multiverse theories entertain a host of “strange” assumptions classified as metaphysical (outside objective experience, concerned with fundamental nature of reality, ideas that cannot be proven right or wrong) topics such as: infinity, duplicate yous, hypothetical fields, mo...

  16. Material Modelling - Composite Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lauge Fuglsang

    1997-01-01

    This report is part of a research project on "Control of Early Age Cracking" - which, in turn, is part of the major research programme, "High Performance Concrete - The Contractor's Technology (HETEK)", coordinated by the Danish Road Directorate, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1997.A composite-rheological ......This report is part of a research project on "Control of Early Age Cracking" - which, in turn, is part of the major research programme, "High Performance Concrete - The Contractor's Technology (HETEK)", coordinated by the Danish Road Directorate, Copenhagen, Denmark, 1997.A composite......-rheological model of concrete is presented by which consistent predictions of creep, relaxation, and internal stresses can be made from known concrete composition, age at loading, and climatic conditions. No other existing "creep prediction method" offers these possibilities in one approach.The model...... in this report is that cement paste and concrete behave practically as linear-viscoelastic materials from an age of approximately 10 hours. This is a significant age extension relative to earlier studies in the literature where linear-viscoelastic behavior is only demonstrated from ages of a few days. Thus...

  17. Distributional Assumptions in Educational Assessments Analysis: Normal Distributions versus Generalized Beta Distribution in Modeling the Phenomenon of Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, Jose Alejandro Gonzalez; Moraga, Paulina Saavedra; Del Pozo, Manuel Freire

    2013-01-01

    This paper introduces the generalized beta (GB) model as a new modeling tool in the educational assessment area and evaluation analysis, specifically. Unlike normal model, GB model allows us to capture some real characteristics of data and it is an important tool for understanding the phenomenon of learning. This paper develops a contrast with the…

  18. A test of the Olson Circumplex Model: examining its curvilinear assumption and the presence of extreme types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, S A; Gavazzi, S M

    1990-09-01

    The debate over the usefulness of different family models continues. Recent attention has been paid to comparisons between the Olson Circumplex Model and the Beavers Systems Model. The present study seeks to contribute evidence that bears directly upon one of the most fundamental points of controversy surrounding the Olson model--the linear versus curvilinear nature of the cohesion and adaptability dimensions. A further contribution is an examination of the actual occurrence of the Circumplex Model's extreme types in a clinical population.

  19. On testing the missing at random assumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaeger, Manfred

    2006-01-01

    Most approaches to learning from incomplete data are based on the assumption that unobserved values are missing at random (mar). While the mar assumption, as such, is not testable, it can become testable in the context of other distributional assumptions, e.g. the naive Bayes assumption. In this ......Most approaches to learning from incomplete data are based on the assumption that unobserved values are missing at random (mar). While the mar assumption, as such, is not testable, it can become testable in the context of other distributional assumptions, e.g. the naive Bayes assumption....... In this paper we investigate a method for testing the mar assumption in the presence of other distributional constraints. We present methods to (approximately) compute a test statistic consisting of the ratio of two profile likelihood functions. This requires the optimization of the likelihood under...... no assumptionson the missingness mechanism, for which we use our recently proposed AI \\& M algorithm. We present experimental results on synthetic data that show that our approximate test statistic is a good indicator for whether data is mar relative to the given distributional assumptions....

  20. Limitations of individual causal models, causal graphs, and ignorability assumptions, as illustrated by random confounding and design unfaithfulness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenland, Sander; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

    2015-10-01

    We describe how ordinary interpretations of causal models and causal graphs fail to capture important distinctions among ignorable allocation mechanisms for subject selection or allocation. We illustrate these limitations in the case of random confounding and designs that prevent such confounding. In many experimental designs individual treatment allocations are dependent, and explicit population models are needed to show this dependency. In particular, certain designs impose unfaithful covariate-treatment distributions to prevent random confounding, yet ordinary causal graphs cannot discriminate between these unconfounded designs and confounded studies. Causal models for populations are better suited for displaying these phenomena than are individual-level models, because they allow representation of allocation dependencies as well as outcome dependencies across individuals. Nonetheless, even with this extension, ordinary graphical models still fail to capture distinctions between hypothetical superpopulations (sampling distributions) and observed populations (actual distributions), although potential-outcome models can be adapted to show these distinctions and their consequences.

  1. Cost effectiveness of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) for patients with type 2 diabetes and not on insulin: impact of modelling assumptions on recent Canadian findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tunis, Sandra L

    2011-11-01

    Canadian patients, healthcare providers and payers share interest in assessing the value of self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) for individuals with type 2 diabetes but not on insulin. Using the UKPDS (UK Prospective Diabetes Study) model, the Canadian Optimal Prescribing and Utilization Service (COMPUS) conducted an SMBG cost-effectiveness analysis. Based on the results, COMPUS does not recommend routine strip use for most adults with type 2 diabetes who are not on insulin. Cost-effectiveness studies require many assumptions regarding cohort, clinical effect, complication costs, etc. The COMPUS evaluation included several conservative assumptions that negatively impacted SMBG cost effectiveness. Current objectives were to (i) review key, impactful COMPUS assumptions; (ii) illustrate how alternative inputs can lead to more favourable results for SMBG cost effectiveness; and (iii) provide recommendations for assessing its long-term value. A summary of COMPUS methods and results was followed by a review of assumptions (for trial-based glycosylated haemoglobin [HbA(1c)] effect, patient characteristics, costs, simulation pathway) and their potential impact. The UKPDS model was used for a 40-year cost-effectiveness analysis of SMBG (1.29 strips per day) versus no SMBG in the Canadian payer setting. COMPUS assumptions for patient characteristics (e.g. HbA(1c) 8.4%), SMBG HbA(1c) advantage (-0.25%) and costs were retained. As with the COMPUS analysis, UKPDS HbA(1c) decay curves were incorporated into SMBG and no-SMBG pathways. An important difference was that SMBG HbA(1c) benefits in the current study could extend beyond the initial simulation period. Sensitivity analyses examined SMBG HbA(1c) advantage, adherence, complication history and cost inputs. Outcomes (discounted at 5%) included QALYs, complication rates, total costs (year 2008 values) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The base-case ICER was $Can63 664 per QALY gained; approximately 56% of

  2. Wrong assumptions in the financial crisis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aalbers, M.B.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show how some of the assumptions about the current financial crisis are wrong because they misunderstand what takes place in the mortgage market. Design/methodology/approach - The paper discusses four wrong assumptions: one related to regulation, one to

  3. A Test of Three Basic Assumptions of Situational Leadership® II Model and Their Implications for HRD Practitioners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zigarmi, Drea; Roberts, Taylor Peyton

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This study aims to test the following three assertions underlying the Situational Leadership® II (SLII) Model: all four leadership styles are received by followers; all four leadership styles are needed by followers; and if there is a fit between the leadership style a follower receives and needs, that follower will demonstrate favorable…

  4. ASSESSING GOING CONCERN ASSUMPTION BY USING RATING VALUATION MODELS BASED UPON ANALYTICAL PROCEDURES IN CASE OF FINANCIAL INVESTMENT COMPANIES

    OpenAIRE

    Tatiana Danescu; Ovidiu Spatacean; Paula Nistor; Andrea Cristina Danescu

    2010-01-01

    Designing and performing analytical procedures aimed to assess the rating of theFinancial Investment Companies are essential activities both in the phase of planning a financialaudit mission and in the phase of issuing conclusions regarding the suitability of using by themanagement and other persons responsible for governance of going concern, as the basis forpreparation and disclosure of financial statements. The paper aims to examine the usefulness ofrecognized models used in the practice o...

  5. Verification of a decision analytic model assumption using real-world practice data: implications for the cost effectiveness of cyclo-oxygenase 2 inhibitors (COX-2s).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Emily R; Motheral, Brenda; Mager, Doug

    2003-12-01

    To verify the gastroprotective agent (GPA) rate assumption used in cost-effectiveness models for cyclo-oxygenase 2 inhibitors (COX-2s) and to re-estimate model outcomes using GPA rates from actual practice. Prescription and medical claims data obtained from January 1, 1999, through May 31, 2001, from a large preferred provider organization in the Midwest, were used to estimate GPA rates within 3 groups of patients aged at least 18 years who were new to nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and COX-2 therapy: all new NSAID users, new NSAID users with a diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or osteoarthritis (OA), and a matched cohort of new NSAID users. Of the more than 319,000 members with at least 1 day of eligibility, 1900 met the study inclusion criteria for new NSAID users, 289 had a diagnosis of OA or RA, and 1232 were included in the matched cohort. Gastroprotective agent estimates for nonselective NSAID and COX-2 users were consistent across all 3 samples (all new NSAID users, new NSAID users with a diagnosis of OA or RA, and the matched cohort), with COX-2 GPA rates of 22%, 21%, and 20%, and nonselective NSAID GPA rates of 15%, 15%, and 18%, respectively. Re-estimation of the cost-effectiveness model increased the cost per year of life saved for COX-2s from $18,614 to more than $100,000. Contrary to COX-2 cost-effectiveness model assumptions, the rate of GPA use is positive and marginally higher among COX-2 users than among nonselective NSAID users. These findings call into question the use of expert opinion in estimating practice pattern model inputs prior to a product's use in clinical practice. A re-evaluation of COX-2 cost-effectiveness models is warranted.

  6. Fractal approach to computer-analytical modelling of tree crown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berezovskaya, F.S.; Karev, G.P.; Kisliuk, O.F.; Khlebopros, R.G.; Tcelniker, Yu.L.

    1993-09-01

    In this paper we discuss three approaches to the modeling of a tree crown development. These approaches are experimental (i.e. regressive), theoretical (i.e. analytical) and simulation (i.e. computer) modeling. The common assumption of these is that a tree can be regarded as one of the fractal objects which is the collection of semi-similar objects and combines the properties of two- and three-dimensional bodies. We show that a fractal measure of crown can be used as the link between the mathematical models of crown growth and light propagation through canopy. The computer approach gives the possibility to visualize a crown development and to calibrate the model on experimental data. In the paper different stages of the above-mentioned approaches are described. The experimental data for spruce, the description of computer system for modeling and the variant of computer model are presented. (author). 9 refs, 4 figs

  7. The error and covariance structures of the mean approach model of pooled cross-section and time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuamah, N.N.N.N.

    1991-01-01

    This paper postulates the assumptions underlying the Mean Approach model and recasts the re-expressions of the normal equations of this model in partitioned matrices of covariances. These covariance structures have been analysed. (author). 16 refs

  8. Testing Our Fundamental Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-06-01

    Science is all about testing the things we take for granted including some of the most fundamental aspects of how we understand our universe. Is the speed of light in a vacuum the same for all photons regardless of their energy? Is the rest mass of a photon actually zero? A series of recent studies explore the possibility of using transient astrophysical sources for tests!Explaining Different Arrival TimesArtists illustration of a gamma-ray burst, another extragalactic transient, in a star-forming region. [NASA/Swift/Mary Pat Hrybyk-Keith and John Jones]Suppose you observe a distant transient astrophysical source like a gamma-ray burst, or a flare from an active nucleus and two photons of different energies arrive at your telescope at different times. This difference in arrival times could be due to several different factors, depending on how deeply you want to question some of our fundamental assumptions about physics:Intrinsic delayThe photons may simply have been emitted at two different times by the astrophysical source.Delay due to Lorentz invariance violationPerhaps the assumption that all massless particles (even two photons with different energies) move at the exact same velocity in a vacuum is incorrect.Special-relativistic delayMaybe there is a universal speed for massless particles, but the assumption that photons have zero rest mass is wrong. This, too, would cause photon velocities to be energy-dependent.Delay due to gravitational potentialPerhaps our understanding of the gravitational potential that the photons experience as they travel is incorrect, also causing different flight times for photons of different energies. This would mean that Einsteins equivalence principle, a fundamental tenet of general relativity (GR), is incorrect.If we now turn this problem around, then by measuring the arrival time delay between photons of different energies from various astrophysical sources the further away, the better we can provide constraints on these

  9. Assumptions of Multiple Regression: Correcting Two Misconceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt N. Williams

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2002, an article entitled - Four assumptions of multiple regression that researchers should always test- by.Osborne and Waters was published in PARE. This article has gone on to be viewed more than 275,000 times.(as of August 2013, and it is one of the first results displayed in a Google search for - regression.assumptions- . While Osborne and Waters' efforts in raising awareness of the need to check assumptions.when using regression are laudable, we note that the original article contained at least two fairly important.misconceptions about the assumptions of multiple regression: Firstly, that multiple regression requires the.assumption of normally distributed variables; and secondly, that measurement errors necessarily cause.underestimation of simple regression coefficients. In this article, we clarify that multiple regression models.estimated using ordinary least squares require the assumption of normally distributed errors in order for.trustworthy inferences, at least in small samples, but not the assumption of normally distributed response or.predictor variables. Secondly, we point out that regression coefficients in simple regression models will be.biased (toward zero estimates of the relationships between variables of interest when measurement error is.uncorrelated across those variables, but that when correlated measurement error is present, regression.coefficients may be either upwardly or downwardly biased. We conclude with a brief corrected summary of.the assumptions of multiple regression when using ordinary least squares.

  10. Linear regression and the normality assumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Amand F; Finan, Chris

    2017-12-16

    Researchers often perform arbitrary outcome transformations to fulfill the normality assumption of a linear regression model. This commentary explains and illustrates that in large data settings, such transformations are often unnecessary, and worse may bias model estimates. Linear regression assumptions are illustrated using simulated data and an empirical example on the relation between time since type 2 diabetes diagnosis and glycated hemoglobin levels. Simulation results were evaluated on coverage; i.e., the number of times the 95% confidence interval included the true slope coefficient. Although outcome transformations bias point estimates, violations of the normality assumption in linear regression analyses do not. The normality assumption is necessary to unbiasedly estimate standard errors, and hence confidence intervals and P-values. However, in large sample sizes (e.g., where the number of observations per variable is >10) violations of this normality assumption often do not noticeably impact results. Contrary to this, assumptions on, the parametric model, absence of extreme observations, homoscedasticity, and independency of the errors, remain influential even in large sample size settings. Given that modern healthcare research typically includes thousands of subjects focusing on the normality assumption is often unnecessary, does not guarantee valid results, and worse may bias estimates due to the practice of outcome transformations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. A simplified approach to feedwater train modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ollat, X.; Smoak, R.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents a method to simplify feedwater train models for power plants. A simple set of algebraic equations, based on mass and energy balances, is developed to replace complex representations of the components under certain assumptions. The method was tested and used to model the low pressure heaters of the Sequoyah Nuclear Plant in a larger simulation

  12. On Assumptions in Development of a Mathematical Model of Thermo-gravitational Convection in the Large Volume Process Tanks Taking into Account Fermentation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Shkapov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a mathematical model of thermo-gravity convection in a large volume vertical cylinder. The heat is removed from the product via the cooling jacket at the top of the cylinder. We suppose that a laminar fluid motion takes place. The model is based on the NavierStokes equation, the equation of heat transfer through the wall, and the heat transfer equation. The peculiarity of the process in large volume tanks was the distribution of the physical parameters of the coordinates that was taken into account when constructing the model. The model corresponds to a process of wort beer fermentation in the cylindrical-conical tanks (CCT. The CCT volume is divided into three zones and for each zone model equations was obtained. The first zone has an annular cross-section and it is limited to the height by the cooling jacket. In this zone the heat flow from the cooling jacket to the product is uppermost. Model equation of the first zone describes the process of heat transfer through the wall and is presented by linear inhomogeneous differential equation in partial derivatives that is solved analytically. For the second and third zones description there was a number of engineering assumptions. The fluid was considered Newtonian, viscous and incompressible. Convective motion considered in the Boussinesq approximation. The effect of viscous dissipation is not considered. The topology of fluid motion is similar to the cylindrical Poiseuille. The second zone model consists of the Navier-Stokes equations in cylindrical coordinates with the introduction of a simplified and the heat equation in the liquid layer. The volume that is occupied by an upward convective flow pertains to the third area. Convective flows do not mix and do not exchange heat. At the start of the process a medium has the same temperature and a zero initial velocity in the whole volume that allows us to specify the initial conditions for the process. The paper shows the

  13. Effect of Selected Modeling Assumptions on Subsurface Radionuclide Transport Projections for the Potential Environmental Management Disposal Facility at Oak Ridge, Tennessee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Painter, Scott L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division

    2016-06-28

    The Department of Energy’s Office of Environmental Management recently revised a Remedial Investigation/ Feasibility Study (RI/FS) that included an analysis of subsurface radionuclide transport at a potential new Environmental Management Disposal Facility (EMDF) in East Bear Creek Valley near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The effect of three simplifying assumptions used in the RI/FS analyses are investigated using the same subsurface pathway conceptualization but with more flexible modeling tools. Neglect of vadose zone dispersion was found to be conservative or non-conservative, depending on the retarded travel time and the half-life. For a given equilibrium distribution coefficient, a relatively narrow range of half-life was identified for which neglect of vadose zone transport is non-conservative and radionuclide discharge into surface water is non-negligible. However, there are two additional conservative simplifications in the reference case that compensate for the non-conservative effect of neglecting vadose zone dispersion: the use of a steady infiltration rate and vadose zone velocity, and the way equilibrium sorption is used to represent transport in the fractured material of the saturated aquifer. With more realistic representations of all three processes, the RI/FS reference case was found to either provide a reasonably good approximation to the peak concentration or was significantly conservative (pessimistic) for all parameter combinations considered.

  14. A Comparison of Modeling Approaches in Simulating Chlorinated Ethene Removal in a Constructed Wetland by a Microbial Consortia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Campbell, Jason

    2002-01-01

    ... of the modeling approaches affect simulation results. Concepts like microbial growth in the form of a biofilm and spatially varying contaminant concentrations bring the validity of the CSTR assumption into question...

  15. How Does Temperature Impact Leaf Size and Shape in Four Woody Dicot Species? Testing the Assumptions of Leaf Physiognomy-Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, M.; Royer, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    The physiognomy (size and shape) of fossilized leaves has been used to reconstruct the mean annual temperature of ancient environments. Colder temperatures often select for larger and more abundant leaf teeth—serrated edges on leaf margins—as well as a greater degree of leaf dissection. However, to be able to accurately predict paleotemperature from the morphology of fossilized leaves, leaves must be able to react quickly and in a predictable manner to changes in temperature. We examined the extent to which temperature affects leaf morphology in four tree species: Carpinus caroliniana, Acer negundo, Ilex opaca, and Ostrya virginiana. Saplings of these species were grown in two growth cabinets under contrasting temperatures (17 and 25 °C). Compared to the cool treatment, in the warm treatment Carpinus caroliniana leaves had significantly fewer leaf teeth and a lower ratio of total number of leaf teeth to internal perimeter; and Acer negundo leaves had a significantly lower feret diameter ratio (a measure of leaf dissection). In addition, a two-way ANOVA tested the influence of temperature and species on leaf physiognomy. This analysis revealed that all plants, regardless of species, tended to develop more highly dissected leaves with more leaf teeth in the cool treatment. Because the cabinets maintained equivalent moisture, humidity, and CO2 concentration between the two treatments, these results demonstrate that these species could rapidly adapt to changes in temperature. However, not all of the species reacted identically to temperature changes. For example, Acer negundo, Carpinus caroliniana, and Ostrya virginiana all had a higher number of total teeth in the cool treatment compared to the warm treatment, but the opposite was true for Ilex opaca. Our work questions a fundamental assumption common to all models predicting paleotemperature from the physiognomy of fossilized leaves: a given climate will inevitably select for the same leaf physiognomy

  16. Probabilistic modelling in urban drainage – two approaches that explicitly account for temporal variation of model errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Del Giudice, Dario; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    of input uncertainties observed in the models. The explicit inclusion of such variations in the modelling process will lead to a better fulfilment of the assumptions made in formal statistical frameworks, thus reducing the need to resolve to informal methods. The two approaches presented here...

  17. Teaching the Pursuit of Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, Peter; Johnson, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Within the school of thought known as Critical Thinking, identifying or finding missing assumptions is viewed as one of the principal thinking skills. Within the new subject in schools and colleges, usually called Critical Thinking, the skill of finding missing assumptions is similarly prominent, as it is in that subject's public examinations. In…

  18. Risk patterns in drug safety study using relative times by accelerated failure time models when proportional hazards assumption is questionable: an illustrative case study of cancer risk of patients on glucose-lowering therapies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Edmond S-W; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H; van Staa, Tjeerd-Pieter

    2015-01-01

    Observational drug safety studies may be susceptible to confounding or protopathic bias. This bias may cause a spurious relationship between drug exposure and adverse side effect when none exists and may lead to unwarranted safety alerts. The spurious relationship may manifest itself through substantially different risk levels between exposure groups at the start of follow-up when exposure is deemed too short to have any plausible biological effect of the drug. The restrictive proportional hazards assumption with its arbitrary choice of baseline hazard function renders the commonly used Cox proportional hazards model of limited use for revealing such potential bias. We demonstrate a fully parametric approach using accelerated failure time models with an illustrative safety study of glucose-lowering therapies and show that its results are comparable against other methods that allow time-varying exposure effects. Our approach includes a wide variety of models that are based on the flexible generalized gamma distribution and allows direct comparisons of estimated hazard functions following different exposure-specific distributions of survival times. This approach lends itself to two alternative metrics, namely relative times and difference in times to event, allowing physicians more ways to communicate patient's prognosis without invoking the concept of risks, which some may find hard to grasp. In our illustrative case study, substantial differences in cancer risks at drug initiation followed by a gradual reduction towards null were found. This evidence is compatible with the presence of protopathic bias, in which undiagnosed symptoms of cancer lead to switches in diabetes medication. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. HEDR modeling approach: Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

    1994-05-01

    This report is a revision of the previous Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project modeling approach report. This revised report describes the methods used in performing scoping studies and estimating final radiation doses to real and representative individuals who lived in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. The scoping studies and dose estimates pertain to various environmental pathways during various periods of time. The original report discussed the concepts under consideration in 1991. The methods for estimating dose have been refined as understanding of existing data, the scope of pathways, and the magnitudes of dose estimates were evaluated through scoping studies

  20. HEDR modeling approach: Revision 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

    1994-05-01

    This report is a revision of the previous Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project modeling approach report. This revised report describes the methods used in performing scoping studies and estimating final radiation doses to real and representative individuals who lived in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. The scoping studies and dose estimates pertain to various environmental pathways during various periods of time. The original report discussed the concepts under consideration in 1991. The methods for estimating dose have been refined as understanding of existing data, the scope of pathways, and the magnitudes of dose estimates were evaluated through scoping studies.

  1. The 'revealed preferences' theory: Assumptions and conjectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, C.H.

    1983-01-01

    Being kind of intuitive psychology the 'Revealed-Preferences'- theory based approaches towards determining the acceptable risks are a useful method for the generation of hypotheses. In view of the fact that reliability engineering develops faster than methods for the determination of reliability aims the Revealed-Preferences approach is a necessary preliminary help. Some of the assumptions on which the 'Revealed-Preferences' theory is based will be identified and analysed and afterwards compared with experimentally obtained results. (orig./DG) [de

  2. Selection of hydrologic modeling approaches for climate change assessment: A comparison of model scale and structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surfleet, Christopher G.; Tullos, Desirèe; Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won

    2012-09-01

    SummaryA wide variety of approaches to hydrologic (rainfall-runoff) modeling of river basins confounds our ability to select, develop, and interpret models, particularly in the evaluation of prediction uncertainty associated with climate change assessment. To inform the model selection process, we characterized and compared three structurally-distinct approaches and spatial scales of parameterization to modeling catchment hydrology: a large-scale approach (using the VIC model; 671,000 km2 area), a basin-scale approach (using the PRMS model; 29,700 km2 area), and a site-specific approach (the GSFLOW model; 4700 km2 area) forced by the same future climate estimates. For each approach, we present measures of fit to historic observations and predictions of future response, as well as estimates of model parameter uncertainty, when available. While the site-specific approach generally had the best fit to historic measurements, the performance of the model approaches varied. The site-specific approach generated the best fit at unregulated sites, the large scale approach performed best just downstream of flood control projects, and model performance varied at the farthest downstream sites where streamflow regulation is mitigated to some extent by unregulated tributaries and water diversions. These results illustrate how selection of a modeling approach and interpretation of climate change projections require (a) appropriate parameterization of the models for climate and hydrologic processes governing runoff generation in the area under study, (b) understanding and justifying the assumptions and limitations of the model, and (c) estimates of uncertainty associated with the modeling approach.

  3. Modeling Approaches in Planetary Seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Renee; Knapmeyer, Martin; Panning, Mark; Schmerr, Nick

    2014-01-01

    Of the many geophysical means that can be used to probe a planet's interior, seismology remains the most direct. Given that the seismic data gathered on the Moon over 40 years ago revolutionized our understanding of the Moon and are still being used today to produce new insight into the state of the lunar interior, it is no wonder that many future missions, both real and conceptual, plan to take seismometers to other planets. To best facilitate the return of high-quality data from these instruments, as well as to further our understanding of the dynamic processes that modify a planet's interior, various modeling approaches are used to quantify parameters such as the amount and distribution of seismicity, tidal deformation, and seismic structure on and of the terrestrial planets. In addition, recent advances in wavefield modeling have permitted a renewed look at seismic energy transmission and the effects of attenuation and scattering, as well as the presence and effect of a core, on recorded seismograms. In this chapter, we will review these approaches.

  4. Cognitive ageing on latent constructs for visual processing capacity: A novel Structural Equation Modelling framework with causal assumptions based on A Theory of Visual Attention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon eNielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined the effects of normal ageing on visual cognition in a sample of 112 healthy adults aged 60-75. A testbattery was designed to capture high-level measures of visual working memory and low-level measures of visuospatial attention and memory. To answer questions of how cognitive ageing affects specific aspects of visual processing capacity, we used confirmatory factor analyses in Structural Equation Modelling (SEM; Model 2, informed by functional structures that were modelled with path analyses in SEM (Model 1. The results show that ageing effects were selective to measures of visual processing speed compared to visual short-term memory (VSTM capacity (Model 2. These results are consistent with some studies reporting selective ageing effects on processing speed, and inconsistent with other studies reporting ageing effects on both processing speed and VSTM capacity. In the discussion we argue that this discrepancy may be mediated by differences in age ranges, and variables of demography. The study demonstrates that SEM is a sensitive method to detect cognitive ageing effects even within a narrow age-range, and a useful approach to structure the relationships between measured variables, and the cognitive functional foundation they supposedly represent.

  5. Branding approach and valuation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamula Tatjana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Much of the skill of marketing and branding nowadays is concerned with building equity for products whose characteristics, pricing, distribution and availability are really quite close to each other. Brands allow the consumer to shop with confidence. The real power of successful brands is that they meet the expectations of those that buy them or, to put it another way, they represent a promise kept. As such they are a contract between a seller and a buyer: if the seller keeps to its side of the bargain, the buyer will be satisfied; if not, the buyer will in future look elsewhere. Understanding consumer perceptions and associations is an important first step to understanding brand preferences and choices. In this paper, we discuss different models to measure value of brand according to couple of well known approaches according to request by companies. We rely upon several empirical examples.

  6. Managerial and Organizational Assumptions in the CMM's

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Jeremy; Aaen, Ivan; Nielsen, Peter Axel

    2008-01-01

    thinking about large production and manufacturing organisations (particularly in America) in the late industrial age. Many of the difficulties reported with CMMI can be attributed basing practice on these assumptions in organisations which have different cultures and management traditions, perhaps...... in different countries operating different economic and social models. Characterizing CMMI in this way opens the door to another question: are there other sets of organisational and management assumptions which would be better suited to other types of organisations operating in other cultural contexts?...

  7. Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Molly S.; Ewert, Michael K.; Keener, John F.

    2018-01-01

    The Baseline Values and Assumptions Document (BVAD) provides analysts, modelers, and other life support researchers with a common set of values and assumptions which can be used as a baseline in their studies. This baseline, in turn, provides a common point of origin from which many studies in the community may depart, making research results easier to compare and providing researchers with reasonable values to assume for areas outside their experience. This document identifies many specific physical quantities that define life support systems, serving as a general reference for spacecraft life support system technology developers.

  8. The place of quantitative energy models in a prospective approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taverdet-Popiolek, N.

    2009-01-01

    Futurology above all depends on having the right mind set. Gaston Berger summarizes the prospective approach in 5 five main thrusts: prepare for the distant future, be open-minded (have a systems and multidisciplinary approach), carry out in-depth analyzes (draw out actors which are really determinant or the future, as well as established shed trends), take risks (imagine risky but flexible projects) and finally think about humanity, futurology being a technique at the service of man to help him build a desirable future. On the other hand, forecasting is based on quantified models so as to deduce 'conclusions' about the future. In the field of energy, models are used to draw up scenarios which allow, for instance, measuring medium or long term effects of energy policies on greenhouse gas emissions or global welfare. Scenarios are shaped by the model's inputs (parameters, sets of assumptions) and outputs. Resorting to a model or projecting by scenario is useful in a prospective approach as it ensures coherence for most of the variables that have been identified through systems analysis and that the mind on its own has difficulty to grasp. Interpretation of each scenario must be carried out in the light o the underlying framework of assumptions (the backdrop), developed during the prospective stage. When the horizon is far away (very long-term), the worlds imagined by the futurologist contain breaks (technological, behavioural and organizational) which are hard to integrate into the models. It is here that the main limit for the use of models in futurology is located. (author)

  9. The Axioms and Special Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borchers, Hans-Jürgen; Sen, Rathindra Nath

    For ease of reference, the axioms, the nontriviality assumptions (3.1.10), the definition of a D-set and the special assumptions of Chaps. 5 and 6 are collected together in the following. The verbal explanations that follow the formal definitions a)-f) of (4.2.1) have been omitted. The entries below are numbered as they are in the text. Recall that βC is the subset of the cone C which, in a D-set, is seen to coincide with the boundary of C after the topology is introduced (Sects. 3.2 and 3.2.1).

  10. Categorical Judgment Scaling with Ordinal Assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofacker, C F

    1984-01-01

    One of the most common activities of psychologists and other researchers is to construct Likert scales and then proceed to analyze them as if the numbers constituted an equal interval scale. There are several alternatives to this procedure (Thurstone & Chave, 1929; Muthen, 1983) that make normality assumptions but which do not assume that the answer categories as used by subjects constitute an equal interval scale. In this paper a new alternative is proposed that uses additive conjoint measurement. It is assumed that subjects can report their attitudes towards stimuli in the appropriate rank order. Neither within-subject nor between-subject distributional assumptions are made. Nevertheless, interval level stimulus values, as well as response category boundaries, are extracted by the procedure. This approach is applied to three sets of attitude data. In these three cases, the equal interval assumption is clearly wrong. Despite this, arithmetic means seem to closely reflect group attitudes towards the stimuli. In one data set, the normality assumption of Thurstone and Chave (1929) and Muthen (1983) is supported, and in the two others it is supported with reservations.

  11. Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation project: 2. Comparison of four modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farley, Kevin J.; Meyer, Joe; Balistrieri, Laurie S.; DeSchamphelaere, Karl; Iwasaki, Yuichi; Janssen, Colin; Kamo, Masashi; Lofts, Steve; Mebane, Christopher A.; Naito, Wataru; Ryan, Adam C.; Santore, Robert C.; Tipping, Edward

    2015-01-01

    As part of the Metal Mixture Modeling Evaluation (MMME) project, models were developed by the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan), the U.S. Geological Survey (USA), HDR⎪HydroQual, Inc. (USA), and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UK) to address the effects of metal mixtures on biological responses of aquatic organisms. A comparison of the 4 models, as they were presented at the MMME Workshop in Brussels, Belgium (May 2012), is provided herein. Overall, the models were found to be similar in structure (free ion activities computed by WHAM; specific or non-specific binding of metals/cations in or on the organism; specification of metal potency factors and/or toxicity response functions to relate metal accumulation to biological response). Major differences in modeling approaches are attributed to various modeling assumptions (e.g., single versus multiple types of binding site on the organism) and specific calibration strategies that affected the selection of model parameters. The models provided a reasonable description of additive (or nearly additive) toxicity for a number of individual toxicity test results. Less-than-additive toxicity was more difficult to describe with the available models. Because of limitations in the available datasets and the strong inter-relationships among the model parameters (log KM values, potency factors, toxicity response parameters), further evaluation of specific model assumptions and calibration strategies is needed.

  12. Multiscale modeling of alloy solidification using a database approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Lijian; Zabaras, Nicholas

    2007-11-01

    A two-scale model based on a database approach is presented to investigate alloy solidification. Appropriate assumptions are introduced to describe the behavior of macroscopic temperature, macroscopic concentration, liquid volume fraction and microstructure features. These assumptions lead to a macroscale model with two unknown functions: liquid volume fraction and microstructure features. These functions are computed using information from microscale solutions of selected problems. This work addresses the selection of sample problems relevant to the interested problem and the utilization of data from the microscale solution of the selected sample problems. A computationally efficient model, which is different from the microscale and macroscale models, is utilized to find relevant sample problems. In this work, the computationally efficient model is a sharp interface solidification model of a pure material. Similarities between the sample problems and the problem of interest are explored by assuming that the liquid volume fraction and microstructure features are functions of solution features extracted from the solution of the computationally efficient model. The solution features of the computationally efficient model are selected as the interface velocity and thermal gradient in the liquid at the time the sharp solid-liquid interface passes through. An analytical solution of the computationally efficient model is utilized to select sample problems relevant to solution features obtained at any location of the domain of the problem of interest. The microscale solution of selected sample problems is then utilized to evaluate the two unknown functions (liquid volume fraction and microstructure features) in the macroscale model. The temperature solution of the macroscale model is further used to improve the estimation of the liquid volume fraction and microstructure features. Interpolation is utilized in the feature space to greatly reduce the number of required

  13. Challenged assumptions and invisible effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wimmelmann, Camilla Lawaetz; Vitus, Kathrine; Jervelund, Signe Smith

    2017-01-01

    of two complete intervention courses and an analysis of the official intervention documents. Findings – This case study exemplifies how the basic normative assumptions behind an immigrant-oriented intervention and the intrinsic power relations therein may be challenged and negotiated by the participants...

  14. Portfolios: Assumptions, Tensions, and Possibilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Robert J.; Clark, Caroline; Fenner, Linda; Herter, Roberta J.; Simpson, Carolyn Staunton; Wiser, Bert

    1998-01-01

    Presents a discussion between two educators of the history, assumptions, tensions, and possibilities surrounding the use of portfolios in multiple classroom contexts. Includes illustrative commentaries that offer alternative perspectives from a range of other educators with differing backgrounds and interests in portfolios. (RS)

  15. Sampling Assumptions in Inductive Generalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Daniel J.; Dry, Matthew J.; Lee, Michael D.

    2012-01-01

    Inductive generalization, where people go beyond the data provided, is a basic cognitive capability, and it underpins theoretical accounts of learning, categorization, and decision making. To complete the inductive leap needed for generalization, people must make a key "sampling" assumption about how the available data were generated.…

  16. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  17. Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strimmer Korbinian

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale. Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood. Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also

  18. Learning Action Models: Qualitative Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bolander, T.; Gierasimczuk, N.; van der Hoek, W.; Holliday, W.H.; Wang, W.-F.

    2015-01-01

    In dynamic epistemic logic, actions are described using action models. In this paper we introduce a framework for studying learnability of action models from observations. We present first results concerning propositional action models. First we check two basic learnability criteria: finite

  19. Modelling hybrid stars in quark-hadron approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schramm, S. [FIAS, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Dexheimer, V. [Kent State University, Department of Physics, Kent, OH (United States); Negreiros, R. [Federal Fluminense University, Gragoata, Niteroi (Brazil)

    2016-01-15

    The density in the core of neutron stars can reach values of about 5 to 10 times nuclear matter saturation density. It is, therefore, a natural assumption that hadrons may have dissolved into quarks under such conditions, forming a hybrid star. This star will have an outer region of hadronic matter and a core of quark matter or even a mixed state of hadrons and quarks. In order to investigate such phases, we discuss different model approaches that can be used in the study of compact stars as well as being applicable to a wider range of temperatures and densities. One major model ingredient, the role of quark interactions in the stability of massive hybrid stars is discussed. In this context, possible conflicts with lattice QCD simulations are investigated. (orig.)

  20. The SR Approach: a new Estimation Method for Non-Linear and Non-Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Martin Møller; Christensen, Bent Jesper

    This paper suggests a new and easy approach to estimate linear and non-linear dynamic term structure models with latent factors. We impose no distributional assumptions on the factors and they may therefore be non-Gaussian. The novelty of our approach is to use many observables (yields or bonds p...

  1. modeling, observation and control, a multi-model approach

    OpenAIRE

    Elkhalil, Mansoura

    2011-01-01

    This thesis is devoted to the control of systems which dynamics can be suitably described by a multimodel approach from an investigation study of a model reference adaptative control performance enhancement. Four multimodel control approaches have been proposed. The first approach is based on an output reference model control design. A successful experimental validation involving a chemical reactor has been carried out. The second approach is based on a suitable partial state model reference ...

  2. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  3. Learning Actions Models: Qualitative Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bolander, Thomas; Gierasimczuk, Nina

    2015-01-01

    —they are identifiable in the limit.We then move on to a particular learning method, which proceeds via restriction of a space of events within a learning-specific action model. This way of learning closely resembles the well-known update method from dynamic epistemic logic. We introduce several different learning...... identifiability (conclusively inferring the appropriate action model in finite time) and identifiability in the limit (inconclusive convergence to the right action model). We show that deterministic actions are finitely identifiable, while non-deterministic actions require more learning power...... methods suited for finite identifiability of particular types of deterministic actions....

  4. New Assumptions to Guide SETI Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombano, S. P.

    2018-01-01

    The recent Kepler discoveries of Earth-like planets offer the opportunity to focus our attention on detecting signs of life and technology in specific planetary systems, but I feel we need to become more flexible in our assumptions. The reason is that, while it is still reasonable and conservative to assume that life is most likely to have originated in conditions similar to ours, the vast time differences in potential evolutions render the likelihood of "matching" technologies very slim. In light of these challenges I propose a more "aggressive"� approach to future SETI exploration in directions that until now have received little consideration.

  5. A Unified Approach to Modeling and Programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Ole Lehrmann; Møller-Pedersen, Birger

    2010-01-01

    of this paper is to go back to the future and get inspiration from SIMULA and propose a unied approach. In addition to reintroducing the contributions of SIMULA and the Scandinavian approach to object-oriented programming, we do this by discussing a number of issues in modeling and programming and argue3 why we......SIMULA was a language for modeling and programming and provided a unied approach to modeling and programming in contrast to methodologies based on structured analysis and design. The current development seems to be going in the direction of separation of modeling and programming. The goal...

  6. Performance of two formal tests based on martingales residuals to check the proportional hazard assumption and the functional form of the prognostic factors in flexible parametric excess hazard models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danieli, Coraline; Bossard, Nadine; Roche, Laurent; Belot, Aurelien; Uhry, Zoe; Charvat, Hadrien; Remontet, Laurent

    2017-07-01

    Net survival, the one that would be observed if the disease under study was the only cause of death, is an important, useful, and increasingly used indicator in public health, especially in population-based studies. Estimates of net survival and effects of prognostic factor can be obtained by excess hazard regression modeling. Whereas various diagnostic tools were developed for overall survival analysis, few methods are available to check the assumptions of excess hazard models. We propose here two formal tests to check the proportional hazard assumption and the validity of the functional form of the covariate effects in the context of flexible parametric excess hazard modeling. These tests were adapted from martingale residual-based tests for parametric modeling of overall survival to allow adding to the model a necessary element for net survival analysis: the population mortality hazard. We studied the size and the power of these tests through an extensive simulation study based on complex but realistic data. The new tests showed sizes close to the nominal values and satisfactory powers. The power of the proportionality test was similar or greater than that of other tests already available in the field of net survival. We illustrate the use of these tests with real data from French cancer registries. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Szekeres models: a covariant approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolopoulos, Pantelis S.

    2017-05-01

    We exploit the 1  +  1  +  2 formalism to covariantly describe the inhomogeneous and anisotropic Szekeres models. It is shown that an average scale length can be defined covariantly which satisfies a 2d equation of motion driven from the effective gravitational mass (EGM) contained in the dust cloud. The contributions to the EGM are encoded to the energy density of the dust fluid and the free gravitational field E ab . We show that the quasi-symmetric property of the Szekeres models is justified through the existence of 3 independent intrinsic Killing vector fields (IKVFs). In addition the notions of the apparent and absolute apparent horizons are briefly discussed and we give an alternative gauge-invariant form to define them in terms of the kinematical variables of the spacelike congruences. We argue that the proposed program can be used in order to express Sachs’ optical equations in a covariant form and analyze the confrontation of a spatially inhomogeneous irrotational overdense fluid model with the observational data.

  8. A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks.

  9. A comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leggett, R.W.; Cristy, M.; Eckerman, K.F.

    1986-01-01

    In the absence of age-specific biokinetic models, current retention models of the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) frequently are used as a point of departure for evaluation of exposures to the general population. These models were designed and intended for estimation of long-term integrated doses to the adult worker. Their format and empirical basis preclude incorporation of much valuable physiological information and physiologically reasonable assumptions that could be used in characterizing the age-specific behavior of radioelements in humans. In this paper we discuss a comprehensive approach to age-dependent dosimetric modeling in which consideration is given not only to changes with age in masses and relative geometries of body organs and tissues but also to best available physiological and radiobiological information relating to the age-specific biobehavior of radionuclides. This approach is useful in obtaining more accurate estimates of long-term dose commitments as a function of age at intake, but it may be particularly valuable in establishing more accurate estimates of dose rate as a function of age. Age-specific dose rates are needed for a proper analysis of the potential effects on estimates or risk of elevated dose rates per unit intake in certain stages of life, elevated response per unit dose received during some stages of life, and age-specific non-radiogenic competing risks

  10. Climate change scenarios in Mexico from models results under the assumption of a doubling in the atmospheric CO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendoza, V.M.; Villanueva, E.E.; Garduno, R.; Adem, J. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Mexico (Mexico)

    1995-12-31

    General circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs) are the best way to simulate the complex large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the atmosphere. These models have been used to estimate the global warming due to an increase of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. In Japan Ohta with coworkers has developed a physical model based on the conservation of thermal energy applied to pounded shallow water, to compute the change in the water temperature, using the atmospheric warming and the precipitation due to the increase in the atmospheric CO{sub 2} computed by the GISS-GCM. In this work, a method similar to the Ohta`s one is used for computing the change in ground temperature, soil moisture, evaporation, runoff and dryness index in eleven hydrological zones, using in this case the surface air temperature and precipitation due to CO{sub 2} doubling, computed by the GFDLR30-GCM and the version of the Adem thermodynamic climate model (CTM-EBM), which contains the three feedbacks (cryosphere, clouds and water vapor), and does not include water vapor in the CO{sub 2} atmospheric spectral band (12-19{mu})

  11. Multiple Model Approaches to Modelling and Control,

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    appeal in building systems which operate robustly over a wide range of operating conditions by decomposing them into a number of simplerlinear modelling or control problems, even for nonlinear modelling or control problems. This appeal has been a factor in the development of increasinglypopular `local...... to problems in the process industries, biomedical applications and autonomoussystems. The successful application of the ideas to demanding problems is already encouraging, but creative development of the basic framework isneeded to better allow the integration of human knowledge with automated learning....... The underlying question is `How should we partition the system - what is `local'?'. This book presents alternative ways of bringing submodels together,which lead to varying levels of performance and insight. Some are further developed for autonomous learning of parameters from data, while others havefocused...

  12. Petroacoustic Modelling of Heterolithic Sandstone Reservoirs: A Novel Approach to Gassmann Modelling Incorporating Sedimentological Constraints and NMR Porosity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, S.; Lovell, M.; Davies, S. J.; Pritchard, T.; Sirju, C.; Abdelkarim, A.

    2012-12-01

    Heterolithic or 'shaly' sandstone reservoirs constitute a significant proportion of hydrocarbon resources. Petroacoustic models (a combination of petrophysics and rock physics) enhance the ability to extract reservoir properties from seismic data, providing a connection between seismic and fine-scale rock properties. By incorporating sedimentological observations these models can be better constrained and improved. Petroacoustic modelling is complicated by the unpredictable effects of clay minerals and clay-sized particles on geophysical properties. Such effects are responsible for erroneous results when models developed for "clean" reservoirs - such as Gassmann's equation (Gassmann, 1951) - are applied to heterolithic sandstone reservoirs. Gassmann's equation is arguably the most popular petroacoustic modelling technique in the hydrocarbon industry and is used to model elastic effects of changing reservoir fluid saturations. Successful implementation of Gassmann's equation requires well-constrained drained rock frame properties, which in heterolithic sandstones are heavily influenced by reservoir sedimentology, particularly clay distribution. The prevalent approach to categorising clay distribution is based on the Thomas - Stieber model (Thomas & Stieber, 1975), this approach is inconsistent with current understanding of 'shaly sand' sedimentology and omits properties such as sorting and grain size. The novel approach presented here demonstrates that characterising reservoir sedimentology constitutes an important modelling phase. As well as incorporating sedimentological constraints, this novel approach also aims to improve drained frame moduli estimates through more careful consideration of Gassmann's model assumptions and limitations. A key assumption of Gassmann's equation is a pore space in total communication with movable fluids. This assumption is often violated by conventional applications in heterolithic sandstone reservoirs where effective porosity, which

  13. The theory of reasoned action as a model of marijuana use: tests of implicit assumptions and applicability to high-risk young women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Diane M; Golder, Seana; Keller, Thomas E; Gillmore, Mary Rogers

    2002-09-01

    The theory of reasoned action (TRA) is used to model decisions about substance use among young mothers who became premaritally pregnant at age 17 or younger. The results of structural equation modeling to test the TRA indicated that most relationships specified by the model were significant and in the predicted direction. Attitude was a stronger predictor of intention than norm, but both were significantly related to intention, and intention was related to actual marijuana use 6 months later. Outcome beliefs were bidimensional, and positive outcome beliefs, but not negative beliefs, were significantly related to attitude. Prior marijuana use was only partially mediated by the TRA variables; it also was directly related to intentions to use marijuana and to subsequent use.

  14. Modeling software behavior a craftsman's approach

    CERN Document Server

    Jorgensen, Paul C

    2009-01-01

    A common problem with most texts on requirements specifications is that they emphasize structural models to the near exclusion of behavioral models-focusing on what the software is, rather than what it does. If they do cover behavioral models, the coverage is brief and usually focused on a single model. Modeling Software Behavior: A Craftsman's Approach provides detailed treatment of various models of software behavior that support early analysis, comprehension, and model-based testing. Based on the popular and continually evolving course on requirements specification models taught by the auth

  15. System Behavior Models: A Survey of Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    the Petri model allowed a quick assessment of all potential states but was more cumbersome to build than the MP model. A comparison of approaches...identical state space results. The combined state space graph of the Petri model allowed a quick assessment of all potential states but was more...59 INITIAL DISTRIBUTION LIST ...................................................................................65 ix LIST

  16. Current approaches to gene regulatory network modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brazma Alvis

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Many different approaches have been developed to model and simulate gene regulatory networks. We proposed the following categories for gene regulatory network models: network parts lists, network topology models, network control logic models, and dynamic models. Here we will describe some examples for each of these categories. We will study the topology of gene regulatory networks in yeast in more detail, comparing a direct network derived from transcription factor binding data and an indirect network derived from genome-wide expression data in mutants. Regarding the network dynamics we briefly describe discrete and continuous approaches to network modelling, then describe a hybrid model called Finite State Linear Model and demonstrate that some simple network dynamics can be simulated in this model.

  17. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  18. Validation of Modeling Flow Approaching Navigation Locks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    USACE, Pittsburgh District ( LRP ) requested that the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Coastal and ERDC/CHL TR-13-9 2 Hydraulics...approaching the lock and dam. The second set of experiments considered a design, referred to as Plan B lock approach, which contained the weir field in...conditions and model parameters A discharge of 1.35 cfs was set as the inflow boundary condition at the upstream end of the model. The outflow boundary was

  19. Forecasting Renewable Energy Consumption under Zero Assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Ma

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy, as an environmentally friendly and sustainable source of energy, is key to realizing the nationally determined contributions of the United States (US to the December 2015 Paris agreement. Policymakers in the US rely on energy forecasts to draft and implement cost-minimizing, efficient and realistic renewable and sustainable energy policies but the inaccuracies in past projections are considerably high. The inaccuracies and inconsistencies in forecasts are due to the numerous factors considered, massive assumptions and modeling flaws in the underlying model. Here, we propose and apply a machine learning forecasting algorithm devoid of massive independent variables and assumptions to model and forecast renewable energy consumption (REC in the US. We employ the forecasting technique to make projections on REC from biomass (REC-BMs and hydroelectric (HE-EC sources for the 2009–2016 period. We find that, relative to reference case projections in Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008, projections based on our proposed technique present an enormous improvement up to ~138.26-fold on REC-BMs and ~24.67-fold on HE-EC; and that applying our technique saves the US ~2692.62PJ petajoules(PJ on HE-EC and ~9695.09PJ on REC-BMs for the 8-year forecast period. The achieved high-accuracy is also replicable to other regions.

  20. Effects of atmospheric turbulence on the single-photon receiving efficiency and the performance of quantum channel with the modified approximate elliptic-beam model assumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-yang; Zhao, Nan; Chen, Nan; Zhu, Chang-hua; Pei, Chang-xing

    2018-01-01

    In free space quantum channel, with the introduction and implementation of the satellite-ground link transmission, the researches of single-photon transmission have attracted great interest. We propose a single-photon receiving model and analyze the influence of the atmospheric turbulence on the single-photon transmission. We obtain the relationship between single-photon receiving efficiency and atmospheric turbulence, and analyze the influence of the atmospheric turbulence on the quantum channel performance by the single-photon counting. Finally, we present a reasonable simulation analysis. Simulation results show that as the strength of the atmospheric fluctuations increases, the counting distribution gradually broadens, and the utilization of quantum channel drops. Furthermore, the key generation rate and transmission distance decreases sharply in the case of strong turbulence.

  1. A new approach for modeling dry deposition velocity of particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giardina, M.; Buffa, P.

    2018-05-01

    The dry deposition process is recognized as an important pathway among the various removal processes of pollutants in the atmosphere. In this field, there are several models reported in the literature useful to predict the dry deposition velocity of particles of different diameters but many of them are not capable of representing dry deposition phenomena for several categories of pollutants and deposition surfaces. Moreover, their applications is valid for specific conditions and if the data in that application meet all of the assumptions required of the data used to define the model. In this paper a new dry deposition velocity model based on an electrical analogy schema is proposed to overcome the above issues. The dry deposition velocity is evaluated by assuming that the resistances that affect the particle flux in the Quasi-Laminar Sub-layers can be combined to take into account local features of the mutual influence of inertial impact processes and the turbulent one. Comparisons with the experimental data from literature indicate that the proposed model allows to capture with good agreement the main dry deposition phenomena for the examined environmental conditions and deposition surfaces to be determined. The proposed approach could be easily implemented within atmospheric dispersion modeling codes and efficiently addressing different deposition surfaces for several particle pollution.

  2. Beyond the crystal ball assumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaucouleur, Sebastien

    2008-01-01

    (programmers hide implementation details behind previously defined interfaces, or alternatively, they refine some pre-defined properties). While practical, this approach is unfortunately not completely satisfactory for Enterprise Resource Planning systems (ERPs). These software products have to be customizable...

  3. Hybrid approaches to physiologic modeling and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olengü, Nicholas O.; Reifman, Jaques

    2005-05-01

    This paper explores how the accuracy of a first-principles physiological model can be enhanced by integrating data-driven, "black-box" models with the original model to form a "hybrid" model system. Both linear (autoregressive) and nonlinear (neural network) data-driven techniques are separately combined with a first-principles model to predict human body core temperature. Rectal core temperature data from nine volunteers, subject to four 30/10-minute cycles of moderate exercise/rest regimen in both CONTROL and HUMID environmental conditions, are used to develop and test the approach. The results show significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with average improvements of up to 30% for prediction horizons of 20 minutes. The models developed from one subject's data are also used in the prediction of another subject's core temperature. Initial results for this approach for a 20-minute horizon show no significant improvement over the first-principles model by itself.

  4. Explorations in statistics: the assumption of normality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2017-09-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This twelfth installment of Explorations in Statistics explores the assumption of normality, an assumption essential to the meaningful interpretation of a t test. Although the data themselves can be consistent with a normal distribution, they need not be. Instead, it is the theoretical distribution of the sample mean or the theoretical distribution of the difference between sample means that must be roughly normal. The most versatile approach to assess normality is to bootstrap the sample mean, the difference between sample means, or t itself. We can then assess whether the distributions of these bootstrap statistics are consistent with a normal distribution by studying their normal quantile plots. If we suspect that an inference we make from a t test may not be justified-if we suspect that the theoretical distribution of the sample mean or the theoretical distribution of the difference between sample means is not normal-then we can use a permutation method to analyze our data. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

  5. Estimates of volume and magma input in crustal magmatic systems from zircon geochronology: the effect of modelling assumptions and system variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca eCaricchi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Magma fluxes in the Earth’s crust play an important role in regulating the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of volcanic eruptions, the chemical evolution of magmatic systems and the distribution of geothermal energy and mineral resources on our planet. Therefore, quantifying magma productivity and the rate of magma transfer within the crust can provide valuable insights to characterise the long-term behaviour of volcanic systems and to unveil the link between the physical and chemical evolution of magmatic systems and their potential to generate resources. We performed thermal modelling to compute the temperature evolution of crustal magmatic intrusions with different final volumes assembled over a variety of timescales (i.e., at different magma fluxes. Using these results, we calculated synthetic populations of zircon ages assuming the number of zircons crystallising in a given time period is directly proportional to the volume of magma at temperature within the zircon crystallisation range. The statistical analysis of the calculated populations of zircon ages shows that the mode, median and standard deviation of the populations varies coherently as function of the rate of magma injection and final volume of the crustal intrusions. Therefore, the statistical properties of the population of zircon ages can add useful constraints to quantify the rate of magma injection and the final volume of magmatic intrusions.Here, we explore the effect of different ranges of zircon saturation temperature, intrusion geometry, and wall rock temperature on the calculated distributions of zircon ages. Additionally, we determine the effect of undersampling on the variability of mode, median and standards deviation of calculated populations of zircon ages to estimate the minimum number of zircon analyses necessary to obtain meaningful estimates of magma flux and final intrusion volume.

  6. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-11-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  7. A novel modeling approach for job shop scheduling problem under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behnam Beheshti Pur

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available When aiming on improving efficiency and reducing cost in manufacturing environments, production scheduling can play an important role. Although a common workshop is full of uncertainties, when using mathematical programs researchers have mainly focused on deterministic problems. After briefly reviewing and discussing popular modeling approaches in the field of stochastic programming, this paper proposes a new approach based on utility theory for a certain range of problems and under some practical assumptions. Expected utility programming, as the proposed approach, will be compared with the other well-known methods and its meaningfulness and usefulness will be illustrated via a numerical examples and a real case.

  8. Vertically-integrated Approaches for Carbon Sequestration Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.; Guo, B.

    2015-12-01

    Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is being considered as an approach to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions from large stationary sources such as coal fired power plants and natural gas processing plants. Computer modeling is an essential tool for site design and operational planning as it allows prediction of the pressure response as well as the migration of both CO2 and brine in the subsurface. Many processes, such as buoyancy, hysteresis, geomechanics and geochemistry, can have important impacts on the system. While all of the processes can be taken into account simultaneously, the resulting models are computationally very expensive and require large numbers of parameters which are often uncertain or unknown. In many cases of practical interest, the computational and data requirements can be reduced by choosing a smaller domain and/or by neglecting or simplifying certain processes. This leads to a series of models with different complexity, ranging from coupled multi-physics, multi-phase three-dimensional models to semi-analytical single-phase models. Under certain conditions the three-dimensional equations can be integrated in the vertical direction, leading to a suite of two-dimensional multi-phase models, termed vertically-integrated models. These models are either solved numerically or simplified further (e.g., assumption of vertical equilibrium) to allow analytical or semi-analytical solutions. This presentation focuses on how different vertically-integrated models have been applied to the simulation of CO2 and brine migration during CCS projects. Several example sites, such as the Illinois Basin and the Wabamun Lake region of the Alberta Basin, are discussed to show how vertically-integrated models can be used to gain understanding of CCS operations.

  9. Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leszek Smolarek

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

  10. A Nonparametric Operational Risk Modeling Approach Based on Cornish-Fisher Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available It is generally accepted that the choice of severity distribution in loss distribution approach has a significant effect on the operational risk capital estimation. However, the usually used parametric approaches with predefined distribution assumption might be not able to fit the severity distribution accurately. The objective of this paper is to propose a nonparametric operational risk modeling approach based on Cornish-Fisher expansion. In this approach, the samples of severity are generated by Cornish-Fisher expansion and then used in the Monte Carlo simulation to sketch the annual operational loss distribution. In the experiment, the proposed approach is employed to calculate the operational risk capital charge for the overall Chinese banking. The experiment dataset is the most comprehensive operational risk dataset in China as far as we know. The results show that the proposed approach is able to use the information of high order moments and might be more effective and stable than the usually used parametric approach.

  11. Towards new approaches in phenological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chmielewski, Frank-M.; Götz, Klaus-P.; Rawel, Harshard M.; Homann, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    Modelling of phenological stages is based on temperature sums for many decades, describing both the chilling and the forcing requirement of woody plants until the beginning of leafing or flowering. Parts of this approach go back to Reaumur (1735), who originally proposed the concept of growing degree-days. Now, there is a growing body of opinion that asks for new methods in phenological modelling and more in-depth studies on dormancy release of woody plants. This requirement is easily understandable if we consider the wide application of phenological models, which can even affect the results of climate models. To this day, in phenological models still a number of parameters need to be optimised on observations, although some basic physiological knowledge of the chilling and forcing requirement of plants is already considered in these approaches (semi-mechanistic models). Limiting, for a fundamental improvement of these models, is the lack of knowledge about the course of dormancy in woody plants, which cannot be directly observed and which is also insufficiently described in the literature. Modern metabolomic methods provide a solution for this problem and allow both, the validation of currently used phenological models as well as the development of mechanistic approaches. In order to develop this kind of models, changes of metabolites (concentration, temporal course) must be set in relation to the variability of environmental (steering) parameters (weather, day length, etc.). This necessarily requires multi-year (3-5 yr.) and high-resolution (weekly probes between autumn and spring) data. The feasibility of this approach has already been tested in a 3-year pilot-study on sweet cherries. Our suggested methodology is not only limited to the flowering of fruit trees, it can be also applied to tree species of the natural vegetation, where even greater deficits in phenological modelling exist.

  12. An integrated biomechanical modeling approach to the ergonomic evaluation of drywall installation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Lu; Buchholz, Bryan; Punnett, Laura; Kriebel, David

    2016-03-01

    Three different methodologies: work sampling, computer simulation and biomechanical modeling, were integrated to study the physical demands of drywall installation. PATH (Posture, Activity, Tools, and Handling), a work-sampling based method, was used to quantify the percent of time that the drywall installers were conducting different activities with different body segment (trunk, arm, and leg) postures. Utilizing Monte-Carlo simulation to convert the categorical PATH data into continuous variables as inputs for the biomechanical models, the required muscle contraction forces and joint reaction forces at the low back (L4/L5) and shoulder (glenohumeral and sternoclavicular joints) were estimated for a typical eight-hour workday. To demonstrate the robustness of this modeling approach, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to examine the impact of some quantitative assumptions that have been made to facilitate the modeling approach. The results indicated that the modeling approach seemed to be the most sensitive to both the distribution of work cycles for a typical eight-hour workday and the distribution and values of Euler angles that are used to determine the "shoulder rhythm." Other assumptions including the distribution of trunk postures did not appear to have a significant impact on the model outputs. It was concluded that the integrated approach might provide an applicable examination of physical loads during the non-routine construction work, especially for those operations/tasks that have certain patterns/sequences for the workers to follow. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  13. Tumour resistance to cisplatin: a modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcu, L; Bezak, E; Olver, I; Doorn, T van

    2005-01-01

    Although chemotherapy has revolutionized the treatment of haematological tumours, in many common solid tumours the success has been limited. Some of the reasons for the limitations are: the timing of drug delivery, resistance to the drug, repopulation between cycles of chemotherapy and the lack of complete understanding of the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of a specific agent. Cisplatin is among the most effective cytotoxic agents used in head and neck cancer treatments. When modelling cisplatin as a single agent, the properties of cisplatin only have to be taken into account, reducing the number of assumptions that are considered in the generalized chemotherapy models. The aim of the present paper is to model the biological effect of cisplatin and to simulate the consequence of cisplatin resistance on tumour control. The 'treated' tumour is a squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck, previously grown by computer-based Monte Carlo techniques. The model maintained the biological constitution of a tumour through the generation of stem cells, proliferating cells and non-proliferating cells. Cell kinetic parameters (mean cell cycle time, cell loss factor, thymidine labelling index) were also consistent with the literature. A sensitivity study on the contribution of various mechanisms leading to drug resistance is undertaken. To quantify the extent of drug resistance, the cisplatin resistance factor (CRF) is defined as the ratio between the number of surviving cells of the resistant population and the number of surviving cells of the sensitive population, determined after the same treatment time. It is shown that there is a supra-linear dependence of CRF on the percentage of cisplatin-DNA adducts formed, and a sigmoid-like dependence between CRF and the percentage of cells killed in resistant tumours. Drug resistance is shown to be a cumulative process which eventually can overcome tumour regression leading to treatment failure

  14. Stream of consciousness: Quantum and biochemical assumptions regarding psychopathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonello, Lucio; Cocchi, Massimo; Gabrielli, Fabio; Tuszynski, Jack A

    2017-04-01

    The accepted paradigms of mainstream neuropsychiatry appear to be incompletely adequate and in various cases offer equivocal analyses. However, a growing number of new approaches are being proposed that suggest the emergence of paradigm shifts in this area. In particular, quantum theories of mind, brain and consciousness seem to offer a profound change to the current approaches. Unfortunately these quantum paradigms harbor at least two serious problems. First, they are simply models, theories, and assumptions, with no convincing experiments supporting their claims. Second, they deviate from contemporary mainstream views of psychiatric illness and do so in revolutionary ways. We suggest a possible way to integrate experimental neuroscience with quantum models in order to address outstanding issues in psychopathology. A key role is played by the phenomenon called the "stream of consciousness", which can be linked to the so-called "Gamma Synchrony" (GS), which is clearly demonstrated by EEG data. In our novel proposal, a unipolar depressed patient could be seen as a subject with an altered stream of consciousness. In particular, some clues suggest that depression is linked to an "increased power" stream of consciousness. It is additionally suggested that such an approach to depression might be extended to psychopathology in general with potential benefits to diagnostics and therapeutics in neuropsychiatry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. SLS Navigation Model-Based Design Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Geohagan, Kevin; Bernard, Bill; Park, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The SLS Program chose to implement a Model-based Design and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team has been responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for the navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1-B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper provides a discussion of the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the Navigation components. These include composing system requirements, requirements verification, model development, model verification and validation, and modeling and analysis approaches. The Model-based Design and Requirements approach does not reduce the effort associated with the design process versus previous processes used at Marshall Space Flight Center. Instead, the approach takes advantage of overlap between the requirements development and management process, and the design and analysis process by efficiently combining the control (i.e. the requirement) and the design mechanisms. The design mechanism is the representation of the component behavior and performance in design and analysis tools. The focus in the early design process shifts from the development and

  16. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: Agent-based versus structured metapopulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merler Stefano

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. Methods We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. Results The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age

  17. Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajelli, Marco; Gonçalves, Bruno; Balcan, Duygu; Colizza, Vittoria; Hu, Hao; Ramasco, José J; Merler, Stefano; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2010-06-29

    In recent years large-scale computational models for the realistic simulation of epidemic outbreaks have been used with increased frequency. Methodologies adapt to the scale of interest and range from very detailed agent-based models to spatially-structured metapopulation models. One major issue thus concerns to what extent the geotemporal spreading pattern found by different modeling approaches may differ and depend on the different approximations and assumptions used. We provide for the first time a side-by-side comparison of the results obtained with a stochastic agent-based model and a structured metapopulation stochastic model for the progression of a baseline pandemic event in Italy, a large and geographically heterogeneous European country. The agent-based model is based on the explicit representation of the Italian population through highly detailed data on the socio-demographic structure. The metapopulation simulations use the GLobal Epidemic and Mobility (GLEaM) model, based on high-resolution census data worldwide, and integrating airline travel flow data with short-range human mobility patterns at the global scale. The model also considers age structure data for Italy. GLEaM and the agent-based models are synchronized in their initial conditions by using the same disease parameterization, and by defining the same importation of infected cases from international travels. The results obtained show that both models provide epidemic patterns that are in very good agreement at the granularity levels accessible by both approaches, with differences in peak timing on the order of a few days. The relative difference of the epidemic size depends on the basic reproductive ratio, R0, and on the fact that the metapopulation model consistently yields a larger incidence than the agent-based model, as expected due to the differences in the structure in the intra-population contact pattern of the approaches. The age breakdown analysis shows that similar attack rates are

  18. Overview of the FEP analysis approach to model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report heads a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed safety assessment. A five stage approach has been adopted, which provides a systematic framework for addressing uncertainty and for the documentation of all modelling decisions and assumptions. The five stages are as follows: Stage 1: EP Analysis - compilation and structuring of a FEP database; Stage 2: Scenario and Conceptual Model Development; Stage 3: Mathematical Model Development; Stage 4: Software Development; Stage 5: confidence Building. This report describes the development and structuring of a FEP database as a Master Directed Diagram (MDD) and explains how this may be used to identify different modelling scenarios, based upon the identification of scenario -defining FEPs. The methodology describes how the possible evolution of a repository system can be addressed in terms of a base scenario, a broad and reasonable representation of the 'natural' evolution of the system, and a number of variant scenarios, representing the effects of probabilistic events and processes. The MDD has been used to identify conceptual models to represent the base scenario and the interactions between these conceptual models have been systematically reviewed using a matrix diagram technique. This has led to the identification of modelling requirements for the base scenario, against which existing assessment software capabilities have been reviewed. A mechanism for combining probabilistic scenario-defining FEPs to construct multi-FEP variant scenarios has been proposed and trialled using the concept of a 'timeline', a defined sequence of events, from which consequences can be assessed. An iterative approach, based on conservative modelling principles, has been proposed for the evaluation of

  19. Detecting and accounting for violations of the constancy assumption in non-inferiority clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koopmeiners, Joseph S; Hobbs, Brian P

    2018-05-01

    Randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials are the gold standard for evaluating a novel therapeutic agent. In some instances, it may not be considered ethical or desirable to complete a placebo-controlled clinical trial and, instead, the placebo is replaced by an active comparator with the objective of showing either superiority or non-inferiority to the active comparator. In a non-inferiority trial, the experimental treatment is considered non-inferior if it retains a pre-specified proportion of the effect of the active comparator as represented by the non-inferiority margin. A key assumption required for valid inference in the non-inferiority setting is the constancy assumption, which requires that the effect of the active comparator in the non-inferiority trial is consistent with the effect that was observed in previous trials. It has been shown that violations of the constancy assumption can result in a dramatic increase in the rate of incorrectly concluding non-inferiority in the presence of ineffective or even harmful treatment. In this paper, we illustrate how Bayesian hierarchical modeling can be used to facilitate multi-source smoothing of the data from the current trial with the data from historical studies, enabling direct probabilistic evaluation of the constancy assumption. We then show how this result can be used to adapt the non-inferiority margin when the constancy assumption is violated and present simulation results illustrating that our method controls the type-I error rate when the constancy assumption is violated, while retaining the power of the standard approach when the constancy assumption holds. We illustrate our adaptive procedure using a non-inferiority trial of raltegravir, an antiretroviral drug for the treatment of HIV.

  20. A Conceptual Modeling Approach for OLAP Personalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigós, Irene; Pardillo, Jesús; Mazón, Jose-Norberto; Trujillo, Juan

    Data warehouses rely on multidimensional models in order to provide decision makers with appropriate structures to intuitively analyze data with OLAP technologies. However, data warehouses may be potentially large and multidimensional structures become increasingly complex to be understood at a glance. Even if a departmental data warehouse (also known as data mart) is used, these structures would be also too complex. As a consequence, acquiring the required information is more costly than expected and decision makers using OLAP tools may get frustrated. In this context, current approaches for data warehouse design are focused on deriving a unique OLAP schema for all analysts from their previously stated information requirements, which is not enough to lighten the complexity of the decision making process. To overcome this drawback, we argue for personalizing multidimensional models for OLAP technologies according to the continuously changing user characteristics, context, requirements and behaviour. In this paper, we present a novel approach to personalizing OLAP systems at the conceptual level based on the underlying multidimensional model of the data warehouse, a user model and a set of personalization rules. The great advantage of our approach is that a personalized OLAP schema is provided for each decision maker contributing to better satisfy their specific analysis needs. Finally, we show the applicability of our approach through a sample scenario based on our CASE tool for data warehouse development.

  1. Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

  2. Neural network approaches for noisy language modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jun; Ouazzane, Karim; Kazemian, Hassan B; Afzal, Muhammad Sajid

    2013-11-01

    Text entry from people is not only grammatical and distinct, but also noisy. For example, a user's typing stream contains all the information about the user's interaction with computer using a QWERTY keyboard, which may include the user's typing mistakes as well as specific vocabulary, typing habit, and typing performance. In particular, these features are obvious in disabled users' typing streams. This paper proposes a new concept called noisy language modeling by further developing information theory and applies neural networks to one of its specific application-typing stream. This paper experimentally uses a neural network approach to analyze the disabled users' typing streams both in general and specific ways to identify their typing behaviors and subsequently, to make typing predictions and typing corrections. In this paper, a focused time-delay neural network (FTDNN) language model, a time gap model, a prediction model based on time gap, and a probabilistic neural network model (PNN) are developed. A 38% first hitting rate (HR) and a 53% first three HR in symbol prediction are obtained based on the analysis of a user's typing history through the FTDNN language modeling, while the modeling results using the time gap prediction model and the PNN model demonstrate that the correction rates lie predominantly in between 65% and 90% with the current testing samples, and 70% of all test scores above basic correction rates, respectively. The modeling process demonstrates that a neural network is a suitable and robust language modeling tool to analyze the noisy language stream. The research also paves the way for practical application development in areas such as informational analysis, text prediction, and error correction by providing a theoretical basis of neural network approaches for noisy language modeling.

  3. Heat transfer modeling an inductive approach

    CERN Document Server

    Sidebotham, George

    2015-01-01

    This innovative text emphasizes a "less-is-more" approach to modeling complicated systems such as heat transfer by treating them first as "1-node lumped models" that yield simple closed-form solutions. The author develops numerical techniques for students to obtain more detail, but also trains them to use the techniques only when simpler approaches fail. Covering all essential methods offered in traditional texts, but with a different order, Professor Sidebotham stresses inductive thinking and problem solving as well as a constructive understanding of modern, computer-based practice. Readers learn to develop their own code in the context of the material, rather than just how to use packaged software, offering a deeper, intrinsic grasp behind models of heat transfer. Developed from over twenty-five years of lecture notes to teach students of mechanical and chemical engineering at The Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, the book is ideal for students and practitioners across engineering discipl...

  4. On the Necessary and Sufficient Assumptions for UC Computation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Nielsen, Jesper Buus; Orlandi, Claudio

    2010-01-01

    -transfer protocol for the stand-alone model. Since a KRA where the secret keys can be computed from the public keys is useless, and some setup assumption is needed for UC secure computation, this establishes the best we could hope for the KRA model: any non-trivial KRA is sufficient for UC computation. •  We show......We study the necessary and sufficient assumptions for universally composable (UC) computation, both in terms of setup and computational assumptions. We look at the common reference string model, the uniform random string model and the key-registration authority model (KRA), and provide new results...... for all of them. Perhaps most interestingly we show that: •  For even the minimal meaningful KRA, where we only assume that the secret key is a value which is hard to compute from the public key, one can UC securely compute any poly-time functionality if there exists a passive secure oblivious...

  5. How Symmetrical Assumptions Advance Strategic Management Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai Juul; Hallberg, Hallberg

    2014-01-01

    We develop the case for symmetrical assumptions in strategic management theory. Assumptional symmetry obtains when assumptions made about certain actors and their interactions in one of the application domains of a theory are also made about this set of actors and their interactions in other...... application domains of the theory. We argue that assumptional symmetry leads to theoretical advancement by promoting the development of theory with greater falsifiability and stronger ontological grounding. Thus, strategic management theory may be advanced by systematically searching for asymmetrical...

  6. Peacebuilding: assumptions, practices and critiques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cravo, Teresa Almeida

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Peacebuilding has become a guiding principle of international intervention in the periphery since its inclusion in the Agenda for Peace of the United Nations in 1992. The aim of creating the conditions for a self-sustaining peace in order to prevent a return to armed conflict is, however, far from easy or consensual. The conception of liberal peace proved particularly limited, and inevitably controversial, and the reality of war-torn societies far more complex than anticipated by international actors that today assume activities in the promotion of peace in post-conflict contexts. With a trajectory full of contested successes and some glaring failures, the current model has been the target of harsh criticism and widespread scepticism. This article critically examines the theoretical background and practicalities of peacebuilding, exploring its ambition as well as the weaknesses of the paradigm adopted by the international community since the 1990s.

  7. Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    This report is an auxiliary document to the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(93)). It presents a detailed discussion of the assumptions underlying the forecasts in the AEO. The energy modeling system is an economic equilibrium system, with component demand modules representing end-use energy consumption by major end-use sector. Another set of modules represents petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity supply patterns and pricing. A separate module generates annual forecasts of important macroeconomic and industrial output variables. Interactions among these components of energy markets generate projections of prices and quantities for which energy supply equals energy demand. This equilibrium modeling system is referred to as the Intermediate Future Forecasting System (IFFS). The supply models in IFFS for oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity determine supply and price for each fuel depending upon consumption levels, while the demand models determine consumption depending upon end-use price. IFFS solves for market equilibrium for each fuel by balancing supply and demand to produce an energy balance in each forecast year

  8. A multiscale modeling approach for biomolecular systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowling, Alan, E-mail: bowling@uta.edu; Haghshenas-Jaryani, Mahdi, E-mail: mahdi.haghshenasjaryani@mavs.uta.edu [The University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (United States)

    2015-04-15

    This paper presents a new multiscale molecular dynamic model for investigating the effects of external interactions, such as contact and impact, during stepping and docking of motor proteins and other biomolecular systems. The model retains the mass properties ensuring that the result satisfies Newton’s second law. This idea is presented using a simple particle model to facilitate discussion of the rigid body model; however, the particle model does provide insights into particle dynamics at the nanoscale. The resulting three-dimensional model predicts a significant decrease in the effect of the random forces associated with Brownian motion. This conclusion runs contrary to the widely accepted notion that the motor protein’s movements are primarily the result of thermal effects. This work focuses on the mechanical aspects of protein locomotion; the effect ATP hydrolysis is estimated as internal forces acting on the mechanical model. In addition, the proposed model can be numerically integrated in a reasonable amount of time. Herein, the differences between the motion predicted by the old and new modeling approaches are compared using a simplified model of myosin V.

  9. Quasirelativistic quark model in quasipotential approach

    CERN Document Server

    Matveev, V A; Savrin, V I; Sissakian, A N

    2002-01-01

    The relativistic particles interaction is described within the frames of quasipotential approach. The presentation is based on the so called covariant simultaneous formulation of the quantum field theory, where by the theory is considered on the spatial-like three-dimensional hypersurface in the Minkowski space. Special attention is paid to the methods of plotting various quasipotentials as well as to the applications of the quasipotential approach to describing the characteristics of the relativistic particles interaction in the quark models, namely: the hadrons elastic scattering amplitudes, the mass spectra and widths mesons decays, the cross sections of the deep inelastic leptons scattering on the hadrons

  10. A new approach for developing adjoint models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, P. E.; Funke, S. W.

    2011-12-01

    Many data assimilation algorithms rely on the availability of gradients of misfit functionals, which can be efficiently computed with adjoint models. However, the development of an adjoint model for a complex geophysical code is generally very difficult. Algorithmic differentiation (AD, also called automatic differentiation) offers one strategy for simplifying this task: it takes the abstraction that a model is a sequence of primitive instructions, each of which may be differentiated in turn. While extremely successful, this low-level abstraction runs into time-consuming difficulties when applied to the whole codebase of a model, such as differentiating through linear solves, model I/O, calls to external libraries, language features that are unsupported by the AD tool, and the use of multiple programming languages. While these difficulties can be overcome, it requires a large amount of technical expertise and an intimate familiarity with both the AD tool and the model. An alternative to applying the AD tool to the whole codebase is to assemble the discrete adjoint equations and use these to compute the necessary gradients. With this approach, the AD tool must be applied to the nonlinear assembly operators, which are typically small, self-contained units of the codebase. The disadvantage of this approach is that the assembly of the discrete adjoint equations is still very difficult to perform correctly, especially for complex multiphysics models that perform temporal integration; as it stands, this approach is as difficult and time-consuming as applying AD to the whole model. In this work, we have developed a library which greatly simplifies and automates the alternate approach of assembling the discrete adjoint equations. We propose a complementary, higher-level abstraction to that of AD: that a model is a sequence of linear solves. The developer annotates model source code with library calls that build a 'tape' of the operators involved and their dependencies, and

  11. Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ruijven, B.J.

    2008-01-01

    Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used to explore possible future developments of the global energy system and identify policies to prevent potential problems. Such estimations of future energy use in developing countries are very uncertain. Crucial factors in the future energy use of these regions are electrification, urbanisation and income distribution, issues that are generally not included in present day global energy models. Model simulations in this thesis show that current insight in developments in low-income regions lead to a wide range of expected energy use in 2030 of the residential and transport sectors. This is mainly caused by many different model calibration options that result from the limited data availability for model development and calibration. We developed a method to identify the impact of model calibration uncertainty on future projections. We developed a new model for residential energy use in India, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science. Experiments with this model show that the impact of electrification and income distribution is less univocal than often assumed. The use of fuelwood, with related health risks, can decrease rapidly if the income of poor groups increases. However, there is a trade off in terms of CO2 emissions because these groups gain access to electricity and the ownership of appliances increases. Another issue is the potential role of new technologies in developing countries: will they use the opportunities of leapfrogging? We explored the potential role of hydrogen, an energy carrier that might play a central role in a sustainable energy system. We found that hydrogen only plays a role before 2050 under very optimistic assumptions. Regional energy

  12. Energy and Development. A Modelling Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ruijven, B.J.

    2008-12-17

    Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used to explore possible future developments of the global energy system and identify policies to prevent potential problems. Such estimations of future energy use in developing countries are very uncertain. Crucial factors in the future energy use of these regions are electrification, urbanisation and income distribution, issues that are generally not included in present day global energy models. Model simulations in this thesis show that current insight in developments in low-income regions lead to a wide range of expected energy use in 2030 of the residential and transport sectors. This is mainly caused by many different model calibration options that result from the limited data availability for model development and calibration. We developed a method to identify the impact of model calibration uncertainty on future projections. We developed a new model for residential energy use in India, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Science. Experiments with this model show that the impact of electrification and income distribution is less univocal than often assumed. The use of fuelwood, with related health risks, can decrease rapidly if the income of poor groups increases. However, there is a trade off in terms of CO2 emissions because these groups gain access to electricity and the ownership of appliances increases. Another issue is the potential role of new technologies in developing countries: will they use the opportunities of leapfrogging? We explored the potential role of hydrogen, an energy carrier that might play a central role in a sustainable energy system. We found that hydrogen only plays a role before 2050 under very optimistic assumptions. Regional energy

  13. An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, Ignacio

    2009-07-01

    The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi-population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution of the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by finding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach.

  14. Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Q. Wan

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

    On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

  15. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.

    2014-01-01

    Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...

  16. MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei OGREZEANU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.

  17. Interfacial Fluid Mechanics A Mathematical Modeling Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ajaev, Vladimir S

    2012-01-01

    Interfacial Fluid Mechanics: A Mathematical Modeling Approach provides an introduction to mathematical models of viscous flow used in rapidly developing fields of microfluidics and microscale heat transfer. The basic physical effects are first introduced in the context of simple configurations and their relative importance in typical microscale applications is discussed. Then,several configurations of importance to microfluidics, most notably thin films/droplets on substrates and confined bubbles, are discussed in detail.  Topics from current research on electrokinetic phenomena, liquid flow near structured solid surfaces, evaporation/condensation, and surfactant phenomena are discussed in the later chapters. This book also:  Discusses mathematical models in the context of actual applications such as electrowetting Includes unique material on fluid flow near structured surfaces and phase change phenomena Shows readers how to solve modeling problems related to microscale multiphase flows Interfacial Fluid Me...

  18. Continuum modeling an approach through practical examples

    CERN Document Server

    Muntean, Adrian

    2015-01-01

    This book develops continuum modeling skills and approaches the topic from three sides: (1) derivation of global integral laws together with the associated local differential equations, (2) design of constitutive laws and (3) modeling boundary processes. The focus of this presentation lies on many practical examples covering aspects such as coupled flow, diffusion and reaction in porous media or microwave heating of a pizza, as well as traffic issues in bacterial colonies and energy harvesting from geothermal wells. The target audience comprises primarily graduate students in pure and applied mathematics as well as working practitioners in engineering who are faced by nonstandard rheological topics like those typically arising in the food industry.

  19. Datamining approaches for modeling tumor control probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naqa, Issam El; Deasy, Joseph O; Mu, Yi; Huang, Ellen; Hope, Andrew J; Lindsay, Patricia E; Apte, Aditya; Alaly, James; Bradley, Jeffrey D

    2010-11-01

    Tumor control probability (TCP) to radiotherapy is determined by complex interactions between tumor biology, tumor microenvironment, radiation dosimetry, and patient-related variables. The complexity of these heterogeneous variable interactions constitutes a challenge for building predictive models for routine clinical practice. We describe a datamining framework that can unravel the higher order relationships among dosimetric dose-volume prognostic variables, interrogate various radiobiological processes, and generalize to unseen data before when applied prospectively. Several datamining approaches are discussed that include dose-volume metrics, equivalent uniform dose, mechanistic Poisson model, and model building methods using statistical regression and machine learning techniques. Institutional datasets of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients are used to demonstrate these methods. The performance of the different methods was evaluated using bivariate Spearman rank correlations (rs). Over-fitting was controlled via resampling methods. Using a dataset of 56 patients with primary NCSLC tumors and 23 candidate variables, we estimated GTV volume and V75 to be the best model parameters for predicting TCP using statistical resampling and a logistic model. Using these variables, the support vector machine (SVM) kernel method provided superior performance for TCP prediction with an rs=0.68 on leave-one-out testing compared to logistic regression (rs=0.4), Poisson-based TCP (rs=0.33), and cell kill equivalent uniform dose model (rs=0.17). The prediction of treatment response can be improved by utilizing datamining approaches, which are able to unravel important non-linear complex interactions among model variables and have the capacity to predict on unseen data for prospective clinical applications.

  20. Relaxing the zero-sum assumption in neutral biodiversity theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haegeman, Bart; Etienne, Rampal S.

    2008-01-01

    The zero-sum assumption is one of the ingredients of the standard neutral model of biodiversity by Hubbell. It states that the community is saturated all the time, which in this model means that the total number of individuals in the community is constant over time, and therefore introduces a

  1. Crime Modeling using Spatial Regression Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Adiatma; Kasim Aidid, M.

    2018-01-01

    Act of criminality in Indonesia increased both variety and quantity every year. As murder, rape, assault, vandalism, theft, fraud, fencing, and other cases that make people feel unsafe. Risk of society exposed to crime is the number of reported cases in the police institution. The higher of the number of reporter to the police institution then the number of crime in the region is increasing. In this research, modeling criminality in South Sulawesi, Indonesia with the dependent variable used is the society exposed to the risk of crime. Modelling done by area approach is the using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Error Model (SEM) methods. The independent variable used is the population density, the number of poor population, GDP per capita, unemployment and the human development index (HDI). Based on the analysis using spatial regression can be shown that there are no dependencies spatial both lag or errors in South Sulawesi.

  2. A Set Theoretical Approach to Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

    2016-01-01

    of it application on a social media maturity data-set. Specifically, we employ Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) to identify maturity stage boundaries as necessary conditions and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to arrive at multiple configurations that can be equally effective in progressing to higher......Maturity Model research in IS has been criticized for the lack of theoretical grounding, methodological rigor, empirical validations, and ignorance of multiple and non-linear paths to maturity. To address these criticisms, this paper proposes a novel set-theoretical approach to maturity models...... characterized by equifinality, multiple conjunctural causation, and case diversity. We prescribe methodological guidelines consisting of a six-step procedure to systematically apply set theoretic methods to conceptualize, develop, and empirically derive maturity models and provide a demonstration...

  3. MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Sadeq

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

  4. Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Andraud

    Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

  5. A Modeling Approach for Marine Observatory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charbel Geryes Aoun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Infrastructure of Marine Observatory (MO is an UnderWater Sensor Networks (UW-SN to perform collaborative monitoring tasks over a given area. This observation should take into consideration the environmental constraints since it may require specific tools, materials and devices (cables, servers, etc.. The logical and physical components that are used in these observatories provide data exchanged between the various devices of the environment (Smart Sensor, Data Fusion. These components provide new functionalities or services due to the long period running of the network. In this paper, we present our approach in extending the modeling languages to include new domain- specific concepts and constraints. Thus, we propose a meta-model that is used to generate a new design tool (ArchiMO. We illustrate our proposal with an example from the MO domain on object localization with several acoustics sensors. Additionally, we generate the corresponding simulation code for a standard network simulator using our self-developed domain-specific model compiler. Our approach helps to reduce the complexity and time of the design activity of a Marine Observatory. It provides a way to share the different viewpoints of the designers in the MO domain and obtain simulation results to estimate the network capabilities.

  6. A nationwide modelling approach to decommissioning - 16182

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, Bernard; Lowe, Andy; Mort, Paul

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we describe a proposed UK national approach to modelling decommissioning. For the first time, we shall have an insight into optimizing the safety and efficiency of a national decommissioning strategy. To do this we use the General Case Integrated Waste Algorithm (GIA), a universal model of decommissioning nuclear plant, power plant, waste arisings and the associated knowledge capture. The model scales from individual items of plant through cells, groups of cells, buildings, whole sites and then on up to a national scale. We describe the national vision for GIA which can be broken down into three levels: 1) the capture of the chronological order of activities that an experienced decommissioner would use to decommission any nuclear facility anywhere in the world - this is Level 1 of GIA; 2) the construction of an Operational Research (OR) model based on Level 1 to allow rapid what if scenarios to be tested quickly (Level 2); 3) the construction of a state of the art knowledge capture capability that allows future generations to learn from our current decommissioning experience (Level 3). We show the progress to date in developing GIA in levels 1 and 2. As part of level 1, GIA has assisted in the development of an IMechE professional decommissioning qualification. Furthermore, we describe GIA as the basis of a UK-Owned database of decommissioning norms for such things as costs, productivity, durations etc. From level 2, we report on a pilot study that has successfully tested the basic principles for the OR numerical simulation of the algorithm. We then highlight the advantages of applying the OR modelling approach nationally. In essence, a series of 'what if...' scenarios can be tested that will improve the safety and efficiency of decommissioning. (authors)

  7. A multiscale approach for modeling atherosclerosis progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchos, Konstantinos P; Carpegianni, Clara; Rigas, Georgios; Exarchos, Themis P; Vozzi, Federico; Sakellarios, Antonis; Marraccini, Paolo; Naka, Katerina; Michalis, Lambros; Parodi, Oberdan; Fotiadis, Dimitrios I

    2015-03-01

    Progression of atherosclerotic process constitutes a serious and quite common condition due to accumulation of fatty materials in the arterial wall, consequently posing serious cardiovascular complications. In this paper, we assemble and analyze a multitude of heterogeneous data in order to model the progression of atherosclerosis (ATS) in coronary vessels. The patient's medical record, biochemical analytes, monocyte information, adhesion molecules, and therapy-related data comprise the input for the subsequent analysis. As indicator of coronary lesion progression, two consecutive coronary computed tomography angiographies have been evaluated in the same patient. To this end, a set of 39 patients is studied using a twofold approach, namely, baseline analysis and temporal analysis. The former approach employs baseline information in order to predict the future state of the patient (in terms of progression of ATS). The latter is based on an approach encompassing dynamic Bayesian networks whereby snapshots of the patient's status over the follow-up are analyzed in order to model the evolvement of ATS, taking into account the temporal dimension of the disease. The quantitative assessment of our work has resulted in 93.3% accuracy for the case of baseline analysis, and 83% overall accuracy for the temporal analysis, in terms of modeling and predicting the evolvement of ATS. It should be noted that the application of the SMOTE algorithm for handling class imbalance and the subsequent evaluation procedure might have introduced an overestimation of the performance metrics, due to the employment of synthesized instances. The most prominent features found to play a substantial role in the progression of the disease are: diabetes, cholesterol and cholesterol/HDL. Among novel markers, the CD11b marker of leukocyte integrin complex is associated with coronary plaque progression.

  8. Evaluating The Markov Assumption For Web Usage Mining

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, S.; Pedersen, Torben Bach; Thorhauge, J.

    2003-01-01

    Web usage mining concerns the discovery of common browsing patterns, i.e., pages requested in sequence, from web logs. To cope with the enormous amounts of data, several aggregated structures based on statistical models of web surfing have appeared, e.g., the Hypertext Probabilistic Grammar (HPG......) model~\\cite{borges99data}. These techniques typically rely on the \\textit{Markov assumption with history depth} $n$, i.e., it is assumed that the next requested page is only dependent on the last $n$ pages visited. This is not always valid, i.e. false browsing patterns may be discovered. However, to our...... knowledge there has been no systematic study of the validity of the Markov assumption wrt.\\ web usage mining and the resulting quality of the mined browsing patterns. In this paper we systematically investigate the quality of browsing patterns mined from structures based on the Markov assumption. Formal...

  9. Modeling in transport phenomena a conceptual approach

    CERN Document Server

    Tosun, Ismail

    2007-01-01

    Modeling in Transport Phenomena, Second Edition presents and clearly explains with example problems the basic concepts and their applications to fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemical reaction engineering and thermodynamics. A balanced approach is presented between analysis and synthesis, students will understand how to use the solution in engineering analysis. Systematic derivations of the equations and the physical significance of each term are given in detail, for students to easily understand and follow up the material. There is a strong incentive in science and engineering to

  10. Model approach brings multi-level success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Mark

    2012-08-01

    n an article that first appeared in US magazine, Medical Construction & Design, Mark Howell, senior vice-president of Skanska USA Building, based in Seattle, describes the design and construction of a new nine-storey, 350,000 ft2 extension to the Good Samaritan Hospital in Puyallup, Washington state. He explains how the use of an Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) approach by the key players, and extensive use of building information modelling (BIM), combined to deliver a healthcare facility that he believes should meet the needs of patients, families, and the clinical care team, 'well into the future'.

  11. Pedagogic process modeling: Humanistic-integrative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boritko Nikolaj M.

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with some current problems of modeling the dynamics of the subject-features development of the individual. The term "process" is considered in the context of the humanistic-integrative approach, in which the principles of self education are regarded as criteria for efficient pedagogic activity. Four basic characteristics of the pedagogic process are pointed out: intentionality reflects logicality and regularity of the development of the process; discreteness (stageability in dicates qualitative stages through which the pedagogic phenomenon passes; nonlinearity explains the crisis character of pedagogic processes and reveals inner factors of self-development; situationality requires a selection of pedagogic conditions in accordance with the inner factors, which would enable steering the pedagogic process. Offered are two steps for singling out a particular stage and the algorithm for developing an integrative model for it. The suggested conclusions might be of use for further theoretic research, analyses of educational practices and for realistic predicting of pedagogical phenomena. .

  12. Distributed automata in an assumption-commitment framework

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We model examples like reliable bit transmission and sequence transmission protocols in this framework and discuss how assumption-commitment structure facilitates compositional design of such protocols. We prove a decomposition theorem which states that every protocol specified globally as a finite state system can ...

  13. A new approach to modeling aviation accidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Arjun Harsha

    views aviation accidents as a set of hazardous states of a system (pilot and aircraft), and triggers that cause the system to move between hazardous states. I used the NTSB's accident coding manual (that contains nearly 4000 different codes) to develop a "dictionary" of hazardous states, triggers, and information codes. Then, I created the "grammar", or a set of rules, that: (1) orders the hazardous states in each accident; and, (2) links the hazardous states using the appropriate triggers. This approach: (1) provides a more correct count of the causes for accidents in the NTSB database; and, (2) checks for gaps or omissions in NTSB accident data, and fills in some of these gaps using logic-based rules. These rules also help identify and count causes for accidents that were not discernable from previous analyses of historical accident data. I apply the model to 6200 helicopter accidents that occurred in the US between 1982 and 2015. First, I identify the states and triggers that are most likely to be associated with fatal and non-fatal accidents. The results suggest that non-fatal accidents, which account for approximately 84% of the accidents, provide valuable opportunities to learn about the causes for accidents. Next, I investigate the causes of inflight loss of control using both a conventional approach and using the state-based approach. The conventional analysis provides little insight into the causal mechanism for LOC. For instance, the top cause of LOC is "aircraft control/directional control not maintained", which does not provide any insight. In contrast, the state-based analysis showed that pilots' tendency to clip objects frequently triggered LOC (16.7% of LOC accidents)--this finding was not directly discernable from conventional analyses. Finally, I investigate the causes for improper autorotations using both a conventional approach and the state-based approach. The conventional approach uses modifiers (e.g., "improper", "misjudged") associated with "24520

  14. Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

    2015-10-01

    Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

  15. Respondent-Driven Sampling – Testing Assumptions: Sampling with Replacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barash Vladimir D.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Classical Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS estimators are based on a Markov Process model in which sampling occurs with replacement. Given that respondents generally cannot be interviewed more than once, this assumption is counterfactual. We join recent work by Gile and Handcock in exploring the implications of the sampling-with-replacement assumption for bias of RDS estimators. We differ from previous studies in examining a wider range of sampling fractions and in using not only simulations but also formal proofs. One key finding is that RDS estimates are surprisingly stable even in the presence of substantial sampling fractions. Our analyses show that the sampling-with-replacement assumption is a minor contributor to bias for sampling fractions under 40%, and bias is negligible for the 20% or smaller sampling fractions typical of field applications of RDS.

  16. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  17. Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Heckelei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews and discusses the more recent literature and application of Positive Mathematical Programming in the context of agricultural supply models. Specifically, advances in the empirical foundation of parameter specifications as well as the economic rationalisation of PMP models – both criticized in earlier reviews – are investigated. Moreover, the paper provides an overview on a larger set of models with regular/repeated policy application that apply variants of PMP. Results show that most applications today avoid arbitrary parameter specifications and rely on exogenous information on supply responses to calibrate model parameters. However, only few approaches use multiple observations to estimate parameters, which is likely due to the still considerable technical challenges associated with it. Equally, we found only limited reflection on the behavioral or technological assumptions that could rationalise the PMP model structure while still keeping the model’s advantages.

  18. Approaches and models of intercultural education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iván Manuel Sánchez Fontalvo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Needed to be aware of the need to build an intercultural society, awareness must be assumed in all social spheres, where stands the role play education. A role of transcendental, since it must promote educational spaces to form people with virtues and powers that allow them to live together / as in multicultural contexts and social diversities (sometimes uneven in an increasingly globalized and interconnected world, and foster the development of feelings of civic belonging shared before the neighborhood, city, region and country, allowing them concern and critical judgement to marginalization, poverty, misery and inequitable distribution of wealth, causes of structural violence, but at the same time, wanting to work for the welfare and transformation of these scenarios. Since these budgets, it is important to know the approaches and models of intercultural education that have been developed so far, analysing their impact on the contexts educational where apply.   

  19. Systems Approaches to Modeling Chronic Mucosal Inflammation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Boning; Choudhary, Sanjeev; Wood, Thomas G.; Carmical, Joseph R.; Boldogh, Istvan; Mitra, Sankar; Minna, John D.; Brasier, Allan R.

    2013-01-01

    The respiratory mucosa is a major coordinator of the inflammatory response in chronic airway diseases, including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Signals produced by the chronic inflammatory process induce epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT) that dramatically alters the epithelial cell phenotype. The effects of EMT on epigenetic reprogramming and the activation of transcriptional networks are known, its effects on the innate inflammatory response are underexplored. We used a multiplex gene expression profiling platform to investigate the perturbations of the innate pathways induced by TGFβ in a primary airway epithelial cell model of EMT. EMT had dramatic effects on the induction of the innate pathway and the coupling interval of the canonical and noncanonical NF-κB pathways. Simulation experiments demonstrate that rapid, coordinated cap-independent translation of TRAF-1 and NF-κB2 is required to reduce the noncanonical pathway coupling interval. Experiments using amantadine confirmed the prediction that TRAF-1 and NF-κB2/p100 production is mediated by an IRES-dependent mechanism. These data indicate that the epigenetic changes produced by EMT induce dynamic state changes of the innate signaling pathway. Further applications of systems approaches will provide understanding of this complex phenotype through deterministic modeling and multidimensional (genomic and proteomic) profiling. PMID:24228254

  20. ECOMOD - An ecological approach to radioecological modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sazykina, Tatiana G.

    2000-01-01

    A unified methodology is proposed to simulate the dynamic processes of radionuclide migration in aquatic food chains in parallel with their stable analogue elements. The distinguishing feature of the unified radioecological/ecological approach is the description of radionuclide migration along with dynamic equations for the ecosystem. The ability of the methodology to predict the results of radioecological experiments is demonstrated by an example of radionuclide (iron group) accumulation by a laboratory culture of the algae Platymonas viridis. Based on the unified methodology, the 'ECOMOD' radioecological model was developed to simulate dynamic radioecological processes in aquatic ecosystems. It comprises three basic modules, which are operated as a set of inter-related programs. The 'ECOSYSTEM' module solves non-linear ecological equations, describing the biomass dynamics of essential ecosystem components. The 'RADIONUCLIDE DISTRIBUTION' module calculates the radionuclide distribution in abiotic and biotic components of the aquatic ecosystem. The 'DOSE ASSESSMENT' module calculates doses to aquatic biota and doses to man from aquatic food chains. The application of the ECOMOD model to reconstruct the radionuclide distribution in the Chernobyl Cooling Pond ecosystem in the early period after the accident shows good agreement with observations

  1. Horizontal soil water potential heterogeneity: simplifying approaches for crop water dynamics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couvreur, V.; Vanderborght, J.; Beff, L.; Javaux, M.

    2014-05-01

    Soil water potential (SWP) is known to affect plant water status, and even though observations demonstrate that SWP distribution around roots may limit plant water availability, its horizontal heterogeneity within the root zone is often neglected in hydrological models. As motive, using a horizontal discretisation significantly larger than one centimetre is often essential for computing time considerations, especially for large-scale hydrodynamics models. In this paper, we simulate soil and root system hydrodynamics at the centimetre scale and evaluate approaches to upscale variables and parameters related to root water uptake (RWU) for two crop systems: a densely seeded crop with an average uniform distribution of roots in the horizontal direction (winter wheat) and a wide-row crop with lateral variations in root density (maize). In a first approach, the upscaled water potential at soil-root interfaces was assumed to equal the bulk SWP of the upscaled soil element. Using this assumption, the 3-D high-resolution model could be accurately upscaled to a 2-D model for maize and a 1-D model for wheat. The accuracy of the upscaled models generally increased with soil hydraulic conductivity, lateral homogeneity of root distribution, and low transpiration rate. The link between horizontal upscaling and an implicit assumption on soil water redistribution was demonstrated in quantitative terms, and explained upscaling accuracy. In a second approach, the soil-root interface water potential was estimated by using a constant rate analytical solution of the axisymmetric soil water flow towards individual roots. In addition to the theoretical model properties, effective properties were tested in order to account for unfulfilled assumptions of the analytical solution: non-uniform lateral root distributions and transient RWU rates. Significant improvements were however only noticed for winter wheat, for which the first approach was already satisfying. This study confirms that the

  2. Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice-a systematic review of common misconceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, Anja F; Albers, Casper J

    2017-01-01

    Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated employment and reporting of assumption checks in twelve clinical psychology journals. Findings indicate that normality of the variables themselves, rather than of the errors, was wrongfully held for a necessary assumption in 4% of papers that use regression. Furthermore, 92% of all papers using linear regression were unclear about their assumption checks, violating APA-recommendations. This paper appeals for a heightened awareness for and increased transparency in the reporting of statistical assumption checking.

  3. Modeling of integral-type Stirling refrigerator using system dynamics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, B.J.; Chen, H.Y. [National Taiwan Univ., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Taipei (Taiwan)

    2000-07-01

    A modeling of the integral-type Stirling refrigerator (ITSR) using a system dynamics approach is developed in the present study. The system dynamics models are derived to describe the input/output relation of each component of an ITSR. Connecting the equivalent circuits of the components together, we obtain a flow network diagram and derive a transfer function to represent system dynamics behavior of an ITSR. The performance analysis of an ITSR is then easily carried out by use of the transfer function with sinusoidal signal assumption. The performance calculation for a test refrigerator has shown that the analysis is accurate. An empirical correlation for a correction coefficient r in the expansion space was also derived for better results. The present study has demonstrated how a linear system theory or system dynamics approach can be applied to the design of an ITSR. (Author)

  4. Extracurricular Business Planning Competitions: Challenging the Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Kayleigh; McGowan, Pauric; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Business planning competitions [BPCs] are a commonly offered yet under-examined extracurricular activity. Given the extent of sceptical comment about business planning, this paper offers what the authors believe is a much-needed critical discussion of the assumptions that underpin the provision of such competitions. In doing so it is suggested…

  5. Culturally Biased Assumptions in Counseling Psychology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Paul B.

    2003-01-01

    Eight clusters of culturally biased assumptions are identified for further discussion from Leong and Ponterotto's (2003) article. The presence of cultural bias demonstrates that cultural bias is so robust and pervasive that is permeates the profession of counseling psychology, even including those articles that effectively attack cultural bias…

  6. Mexican-American Cultural Assumptions and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, E. Lou

    The search for presuppositions of a people's thought is not new. Octavio Paz and Samuel Ramos have both attempted to describe the assumptions underlying the Mexican character. Paz described Mexicans as private, defensive, and stoic, characteristics taken to the extreme in the "pachuco." Ramos, on the other hand, described Mexicans as…

  7. Assumptions of Multiple Regression: Correcting Two Misconceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Matt N.; Gomez Grajales, Carlos Alberto; Kurkiewicz, Dason

    2013-01-01

    In 2002, an article entitled "Four assumptions of multiple regression that researchers should always test" by Osborne and Waters was published in "PARE." This article has gone on to be viewed more than 275,000 times (as of August 2013), and it is one of the first results displayed in a Google search for "regression…

  8. Critically Challenging Some Assumptions in HRD

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, David; McGuire, David; Cross, Christine

    2006-01-01

    This paper sets out to critically challenge five interrelated assumptions prominent in the (human resource development) HRD literature. These relate to: the exploitation of labour in enhancing shareholder value; the view that employees are co-contributors to and co-recipients of HRD benefits; the distinction between HRD and human resource…

  9. Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keele, Luke

    2015-01-01

    In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

  10. Shattering world assumptions: A prospective view of the impact of adverse events on world assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Eric R; Boals, Adriel

    2016-05-01

    Shattered Assumptions theory (Janoff-Bulman, 1992) posits that experiencing a traumatic event has the potential to diminish the degree of optimism in the assumptions of the world (assumptive world), which could lead to the development of posttraumatic stress disorder. Prior research assessed the assumptive world with a measure that was recently reported to have poor psychometric properties (Kaler et al., 2008). The current study had 3 aims: (a) to assess the psychometric properties of a recently developed measure of the assumptive world, (b) to retrospectively examine how prior adverse events affected the optimism of the assumptive world, and (c) to measure the impact of an intervening adverse event. An 8-week prospective design with a college sample (N = 882 at Time 1 and N = 511 at Time 2) was used to assess the study objectives. We split adverse events into those that were objectively or subjectively traumatic in nature. The new measure exhibited adequate psychometric properties. The report of a prior objective or subjective trauma at Time 1 was related to a less optimistic assumptive world. Furthermore, participants who experienced an intervening objectively traumatic event evidenced a decrease in optimistic views of the world compared with those who did not experience an intervening adverse event. We found support for Shattered Assumptions theory retrospectively and prospectively using a reliable measure of the assumptive world. We discuss future assessments of the measure of the assumptive world and clinical implications to help rebuild the assumptive world with current therapies. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Being Explicit about Underlying Values, Assumptions and Views when Designing for Children in the IDC Community

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skovbjerg, Helle Marie; Bekker, Tilde; Barendregt, Wolmet

    2016-01-01

    In this full-day workshop we want to discuss how the IDC community can make underlying assumptions, values and views regarding children and childhood in making design decisions more explicit. What assumptions do IDC designers and researchers make, and how can they be supported in reflecting......, and intends to share different approaches for uncovering and reflecting on values, assumptions and views about children and childhood in design....

  12. An interdisciplinary approach to modeling tritium transfer into the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galeriu, D; Melintescu, A.

    2005-01-01

    equations between soil and plants. Considering mammals, we recently showed that the simplistic models currently applied did not accurately match experimental data from rats and sheep. Specific data for many farm and wild animals are scarce. In this paper, we are advancing a different approach based on energy metabolism, which can be parameterized predominantly based on published metabolic data for mature mammals. We started with the observation that the measured dynamics of 14 C and non-exchangeable organically bound tritium (OBT) were, not surprisingly, similar. We therefore introduced a metabolic definition for the 14 C and OBT loss rate (assumed to be the same) from the whole body and specific organs. We assumed that this was given by the specific metabolic rate of the whole body or organ, divided by the enthalpy of combustion of a kilogram of fresh matter. Since basal metabolism data were taken from the literature, they were modified for energy expenditure above basal need. To keep the model simple, organs were grouped according to their metabolic activity or importance in the food chain. Pools considered were viscera (high metabolic rate organs except the brain), muscle, adipose tissue, blood, and other (all other tissues). We disregarded any detail on substrate utilization from the dietary intake and condensed the postprandial respiration in a single rate. We included considerations of net maintenance and growth needs. For tritium, the transfer between body water and organic compartments was modeled using knowledge of basic metabolism and published relations. We considered the potential influence of rumen digestion and bacterial protein in ruminants. As for model application, we focused on laboratory and farm animals, where some experimental data were available. The model performed well for rat muscle, viscera and adipose tissue, but due to the simplicity of model structure and assumptions, blood and urine data were only satisfactorily reproduced. Whilst for sheep fed

  13. Risk communication: a mental models approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morgan, M. Granger (Millett Granger)

    2002-01-01

    ... information about risks. The procedure uses approaches from risk and decision analysis to identify the most relevant information; it also uses approaches from psychology and communication theory to ensure that its message is understood. This book is written in nontechnical terms, designed to make the approach feasible for anyone willing to try it. It is illustrat...

  14. How to interpret the results of medical time series data analysis: Classical statistical approaches versus dynamic Bayesian network modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onisko, Agnieszka; Druzdzel, Marek J; Austin, R Marshall

    2016-01-01

    Classical statistics is a well-established approach in the analysis of medical data. While the medical community seems to be familiar with the concept of a statistical analysis and its interpretation, the Bayesian approach, argued by many of its proponents to be superior to the classical frequentist approach, is still not well-recognized in the analysis of medical data. The goal of this study is to encourage data analysts to use the Bayesian approach, such as modeling with graphical probabilistic networks, as an insightful alternative to classical statistical analysis of medical data. This paper offers a comparison of two approaches to analysis of medical time series data: (1) classical statistical approach, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox proportional hazards regression model, and (2) dynamic Bayesian network modeling. Our comparison is based on time series cervical cancer screening data collected at Magee-Womens Hospital, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center over 10 years. The main outcomes of our comparison are cervical cancer risk assessments produced by the three approaches. However, our analysis discusses also several aspects of the comparison, such as modeling assumptions, model building, dealing with incomplete data, individualized risk assessment, results interpretation, and model validation. Our study shows that the Bayesian approach is (1) much more flexible in terms of modeling effort, and (2) it offers an individualized risk assessment, which is more cumbersome for classical statistical approaches.

  15. Fitting N-mixture models to count data with unmodeled heterogeneity: Bias, diagnostics, and alternative approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Adam; Adams, Michael J.; Peterson, James T.

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring animal populations is central to wildlife and fisheries management, and the use of N-mixture models toward these efforts has markedly increased in recent years. Nevertheless, relatively little work has evaluated estimator performance when basic assumptions are violated. Moreover, diagnostics to identify when bias in parameter estimates from N-mixture models is likely is largely unexplored. We simulated count data sets using 837 combinations of detection probability, number of sample units, number of survey occasions, and type and extent of heterogeneity in abundance or detectability. We fit Poisson N-mixture models to these data, quantified the bias associated with each combination, and evaluated if the parametric bootstrap goodness-of-fit (GOF) test can be used to indicate bias in parameter estimates. We also explored if assumption violations can be diagnosed prior to fitting N-mixture models. In doing so, we propose a new model diagnostic, which we term the quasi-coefficient of variation (QCV). N-mixture models performed well when assumptions were met and detection probabilities were moderate (i.e., ≥0.3), and the performance of the estimator improved with increasing survey occasions and sample units. However, the magnitude of bias in estimated mean abundance with even slight amounts of unmodeled heterogeneity was substantial. The parametric bootstrap GOF test did not perform well as a diagnostic for bias in parameter estimates when detectability and sample sizes were low. The results indicate the QCV is useful to diagnose potential bias and that potential bias associated with unidirectional trends in abundance or detectability can be diagnosed using Poisson regression. This study represents the most thorough assessment to date of assumption violations and diagnostics when fitting N-mixture models using the most commonly implemented error distribution. Unbiased estimates of population state variables are needed to properly inform management decision

  16. A Hybrid Physics-Based Data-Driven Approach for Point-Particle Force Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Chandler; Akiki, Georges; Balachandar, S.

    2017-11-01

    This study improves upon the physics-based pairwise interaction extended point-particle (PIEP) model. The PIEP model leverages a physical framework to predict fluid mediated interactions between solid particles. While the PIEP model is a powerful tool, its pairwise assumption leads to increased error in flows with high particle volume fractions. To reduce this error, a regression algorithm is used to model the differences between the current PIEP model's predictions and the results of direct numerical simulations (DNS) for an array of monodisperse solid particles subjected to various flow conditions. The resulting statistical model and the physical PIEP model are superimposed to construct a hybrid, physics-based data-driven PIEP model. It must be noted that the performance of a pure data-driven approach without the model-form provided by the physical PIEP model is substantially inferior. The hybrid model's predictive capabilities are analyzed using more DNS. In every case tested, the hybrid PIEP model's prediction are more accurate than those of physical PIEP model. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-1315138 and the U.S. DOE, NNSA, ASC Program, as a Cooperative Agreement under Contract No. DE-NA0002378.

  17. Formal verification of dynamic hybrid systems: a NuSMV-based model checking approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Zhi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Software security is an important and challenging research topic in developing dynamic hybrid embedded software systems. Ensuring the correct behavior of these systems is particularly difficult due to the interactions between the continuous subsystem and the discrete subsystem. Currently available security analysis methods for system risks have been limited, as they rely on manual inspections of the individual subsystems under simplifying assumptions. To improve this situation, a new approach is proposed that is based on the symbolic model checking tool NuSMV. A dual PID system is used as an example system, for which the logical part and the computational part of the system are modeled in a unified manner. Constraints are constructed on the controlled object, and a counter-example path is ultimately generated, indicating that the hybrid system can be analyzed by the model checking tool.

  18. How to Handle Assumptions in Synthesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roderick Bloem

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The increased interest in reactive synthesis over the last decade has led to many improved solutions but also to many new questions. In this paper, we discuss the question of how to deal with assumptions on environment behavior. We present four goals that we think should be met and review several different possibilities that have been proposed. We argue that each of them falls short in at least one aspect.

  19. Towards New Probabilistic Assumptions in Business Intelligence

    OpenAIRE

    Schumann Andrew; Szelc Andrzej

    2015-01-01

    One of the main assumptions of mathematical tools in science is represented by the idea of measurability and additivity of reality. For discovering the physical universe additive measures such as mass, force, energy, temperature, etc. are used. Economics and conventional business intelligence try to continue this empiricist tradition and in statistical and econometric tools they appeal only to the measurable aspects of reality. However, a lot of important variables of economic systems cannot ...

  20. Provisional safety analyses for SGT stage 2 -- Models, codes and general modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-12-01

    In the framework of the provisional safety analyses for Stage 2 of the Sectoral Plan for Deep Geological Repositories (SGT), deterministic modelling of radionuclide release from the barrier system along the groundwater pathway during the post-closure period of a deep geological repository is carried out. The calculated radionuclide release rates are interpreted as annual effective dose for an individual and assessed against the regulatory protection criterion 1 of 0.1 mSv per year. These steps are referred to as dose calculations. Furthermore, from the results of the dose calculations so-called characteristic dose intervals are determined, which provide input to the safety-related comparison of the geological siting regions in SGT Stage 2. Finally, the results of the dose calculations are also used to illustrate and to evaluate the post-closure performance of the barrier systems under consideration. The principal objective of this report is to describe comprehensively the technical aspects of the dose calculations. These aspects comprise: · the generic conceptual models of radionuclide release from the solid waste forms, of radionuclide transport through the system of engineered and geological barriers, of radionuclide transfer in the biosphere, as well as of the potential radiation exposure of the population, · the mathematical models for the explicitly considered release and transport processes, as well as for the radiation exposure pathways that are included, · the implementation of the mathematical models in numerical codes, including an overview of these codes and the most relevant verification steps, · the general modelling approach when using the codes, in particular the generic assumptions needed to model the near field and the geosphere, along with some numerical details, · a description of the work flow related to the execution of the calculations and of the software tools that are used to facilitate the modelling process, and · an overview of the

  1. Data-driven smooth tests of the proportional hazards assumption

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kraus, David

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 13, č. 1 (2007), s. 1-16 ISSN 1380-7870 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA101120604; GA ČR(CZ) GD201/05/H007 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Cox model * Neyman's smooth test * proportional hazards assumption * Schwarz's selection rule Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.491, year: 2007

  2. About tests of the "simplifying" assumption for conditional copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Derumigny, Alexis; Fermanian, Jean-David

    2016-01-01

    We discuss the so-called “simplifying assumption” of conditional copulas in a general framework. We introduce several tests of the latter assumption for non- and semiparametric copula models. Some related test procedures based on conditioning subsets instead of point-wise events are proposed. The limiting distributions of such test statistics under the null are approximated by several bootstrap schemes, most of them being new. We prove the validity of a particular semiparametric bootstrap sch...

  3. Mathematical Modelling Approach in Mathematics Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arseven, Ayla

    2015-01-01

    The topic of models and modeling has come to be important for science and mathematics education in recent years. The topic of "Modeling" topic is especially important for examinations such as PISA which is conducted at an international level and measures a student's success in mathematics. Mathematical modeling can be defined as using…

  4. A Multivariate Approach to Functional Neuro Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mørch, Niels J.S.

    1998-01-01

    by the application of linear and more flexible, nonlinear microscopic regression models to a real-world dataset. The dependency of model performance, as quantified by generalization error, on model flexibility and training set size is demonstrated, leading to the important realization that no uniformly optimal model......, provides the basis for a generalization theoretical framework relating model performance to model complexity and dataset size. Briefly summarized the major topics discussed in the thesis include: - An introduction of the representation of functional datasets by pairs of neuronal activity patterns...... exists. - Model visualization and interpretation techniques. The simplicity of this task for linear models contrasts the difficulties involved when dealing with nonlinear models. Finally, a visualization technique for nonlinear models is proposed. A single observation emerges from the thesis...

  5. Uncertainty in biology a computational modeling approach

    CERN Document Server

    Gomez-Cabrero, David

    2016-01-01

    Computational modeling of biomedical processes is gaining more and more weight in the current research into the etiology of biomedical problems and potential treatment strategies.  Computational modeling allows to reduce, refine and replace animal experimentation as well as to translate findings obtained in these experiments to the human background. However these biomedical problems are inherently complex with a myriad of influencing factors, which strongly complicates the model building and validation process.  This book wants to address four main issues related to the building and validation of computational models of biomedical processes: Modeling establishment under uncertainty Model selection and parameter fitting Sensitivity analysis and model adaptation Model predictions under uncertainty In each of the abovementioned areas, the book discusses a number of key-techniques by means of a general theoretical description followed by one or more practical examples.  This book is intended for graduate stude...

  6. Relaxed memory models: an operational approach

    OpenAIRE

    Boudol , Gérard; Petri , Gustavo

    2009-01-01

    International audience; Memory models define an interface between programs written in some language and their implementation, determining which behaviour the memory (and thus a program) is allowed to have in a given model. A minimal guarantee memory models should provide to the programmer is that well-synchronized, that is, data-race free code has a standard semantics. Traditionally, memory models are defined axiomatically, setting constraints on the order in which memory operations are allow...

  7. A criticism of connectivity in ecology and an alternative modelling approach: Flow connectivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Modelling ecological connectivity across landscape is pivotal for understanding a large number of ecological processes, and for achieving environmental management aims such as preserving plant and animal populations, predicting infective disease spread and conserving biodiversity. Recently, concepts and models from electrical circuit theory have been adjusted for these purposes. In circuit theory, landscapes are represented as conductive surfaces, with resistance proportional to the easiness of species dispersal or gene flow. I observe in this paper that landscape connectivity as estimated by circuit theory relies on a strong assumption that is possibly false, unproven or very challenging to be demonstrated: species dispersals are thought as "from-to" movements, i.e. from source patches to sink ones. To this reason, I offer here a modelling approach to ecological connectivity assessment that is alternative to circuit theory and is able to fix the weak point of the "from-to" connectivity approach. The proposed approach holds also for mountain and hilly landscapes. In addition, it doesn't assume any intention for a species to go from source points to sink ones, because the expected path for the species is determined locally (pixel by pixel by landscape features. I've called this approach "flow connectivity" since it resembles in some way the motion characteristic of fluids over a surface. Flow connectivity can be applied for conservation planning and for predicting ecological and genetic effects of spatial heterogeneity and landscape change.

  8. Numerical modelling approach for mine backfill

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... of mine backfill material needs special attention as the numerical model must behave realistically and in accordance with the site conditions. This paper discusses a numerical modelling strategy for modelling mine backfill material. Themodelling strategy is studied using a case study mine from Canadian mining industry.

  9. Assumptions for the Annual Energy Outlook 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This report serves a auxiliary document to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) publication Annual Energy Outlook 1992 (AEO) (DOE/EIA-0383(92)), released in January 1992. The AEO forecasts were developed for five alternative cases and consist of energy supply, consumption, and price projections by major fuel and end-use sector, which are published at a national level of aggregation. The purpose of this report is to present important quantitative assumptions, including world oil prices and macroeconomic growth, underlying the AEO forecasts. The report has been prepared in response to external requests, as well as analyst requirements for background information on the AEO and studies based on the AEO forecasts

  10. Applying sequential Monte Carlo methods into a distributed hydrologic model: lagged particle filtering approach with regularization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Noh

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Data assimilation techniques have received growing attention due to their capability to improve prediction. Among various data assimilation techniques, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC methods, known as "particle filters", are a Bayesian learning process that has the capability to handle non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. In this paper, we propose an improved particle filtering approach to consider different response times of internal state variables in a hydrologic model. The proposed method adopts a lagged filtering approach to aggregate model response until the uncertainty of each hydrologic process is propagated. The regularization with an additional move step based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods is also implemented to preserve sample diversity under the lagged filtering approach. A distributed hydrologic model, water and energy transfer processes (WEP, is implemented for the sequential data assimilation through the updating of state variables. The lagged regularized particle filter (LRPF and the sequential importance resampling (SIR particle filter are implemented for hindcasting of streamflow at the Katsura catchment, Japan. Control state variables for filtering are soil moisture content and overland flow. Streamflow measurements are used for data assimilation. LRPF shows consistent forecasts regardless of the process noise assumption, while SIR has different values of optimal process noise and shows sensitive variation of confidential intervals, depending on the process noise. Improvement of LRPF forecasts compared to SIR is particularly found for rapidly varied high flows due to preservation of sample diversity from the kernel, even if particle impoverishment takes place.

  11. A multiple imputation approach for MNAR mechanisms compatible with Heckman's model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galimard, Jacques-Emmanuel; Chevret, Sylvie; Protopopescu, Camelia; Resche-Rigon, Matthieu

    2016-07-30

    Standard implementations of multiple imputation (MI) approaches provide unbiased inferences based on an assumption of underlying missing at random (MAR) mechanisms. However, in the presence of missing data generated by missing not at random (MNAR) mechanisms, MI is not satisfactory. Originating in an econometric statistical context, Heckman's model, also called the sample selection method, deals with selected samples using two joined linear equations, termed the selection equation and the outcome equation. It has been successfully applied to MNAR outcomes. Nevertheless, such a method only addresses missing outcomes, and this is a strong limitation in clinical epidemiology settings, where covariates are also often missing. We propose to extend the validity of MI to some MNAR mechanisms through the use of the Heckman's model as imputation model and a two-step estimation process. This approach will provide a solution that can be used in an MI by chained equation framework to impute missing (either outcomes or covariates) data resulting either from a MAR or an MNAR mechanism when the MNAR mechanism is compatible with a Heckman's model. The approach is illustrated on a real dataset from a randomised trial in patients with seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Is There a Critical Distance for Fickian Transport? - a Statistical Approach to Sub-Fickian Transport Modelling in Porous Media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most, S.; Nowak, W.; Bijeljic, B.

    2014-12-01

    Transport processes in porous media are frequently simulated as particle movement. This process can be formulated as a stochastic process of particle position increments. At the pore scale, the geometry and micro-heterogeneities prohibit the commonly made assumption of independent and normally distributed increments to represent dispersion. Many recent particle methods seek to loosen this assumption. Recent experimental data suggest that we have not yet reached the end of the need to generalize, because particle increments show statistical dependency beyond linear correlation and over many time steps. The goal of this work is to better understand the validity regions of commonly made assumptions. We are investigating after what transport distances can we observe: A statistical dependence between increments, that can be modelled as an order-k Markov process, boils down to order 1. This would be the Markovian distance for the process, where the validity of yet-unexplored non-Gaussian-but-Markovian random walks would start. A bivariate statistical dependence that simplifies to a multi-Gaussian dependence based on simple linear correlation (validity of correlated PTRW). Complete absence of statistical dependence (validity of classical PTRW/CTRW). The approach is to derive a statistical model for pore-scale transport from a powerful experimental data set via copula analysis. The model is formulated as a non-Gaussian, mutually dependent Markov process of higher order, which allows us to investigate the validity ranges of simpler models.

  13. Models Portability: Some Considerations about Transdisciplinary Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Alessandro

    Some critical issues about the relative portability of models and solutions across disciplinary barriers are discussed. The risks linked to the use of models and theories coming from different disciplines are evidentiated with a particular emphasis on biology. A metaphorical use of conceptual tools coming from other fields is suggested, together with the unescapable need to judge about the relative merits of a model on the basis of the amount of facts relative to the particular domain of application it explains. Some examples of metaphorical modeling coming from biochemistry and psychobiology are briefly discussed in order to clarify the above positions.

  14. Nonlinear Modeling of the PEMFC Based On NNARX Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Shan-Jen Cheng; Te-Jen Chang; Kuang-Hsiung Tan; Shou-Ling Kuo

    2015-01-01

    Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is such a time-vary nonlinear dynamic system. The traditional linear modeling approach is hard to estimate structure correctly of PEMFC system. From this reason, this paper presents a nonlinear modeling of the PEMFC using Neural Network Auto-regressive model with eXogenous inputs (NNARX) approach. The multilayer perception (MLP) network is applied to evaluate the structure of the NNARX model of PEMFC. The validity and accurac...

  15. A visual approach for modeling spatiotemporal relations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.L. Guimarães (Rodrigo); C.S.S. Neto; L.F.G. Soares

    2008-01-01

    htmlabstractTextual programming languages have proven to be difficult to learn and to use effectively for many people. For this sake, visual tools can be useful to abstract the complexity of such textual languages, minimizing the specification efforts. In this paper we present a visual approach for

  16. DIVERSE APPROACHES TO MODELLING THE ASSIMILATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study evaluated the assimilative capacity of Ikpoba River using different approaches namely: homogeneous differential equation, ANOVA/Duncan Multiple rage test, first and second order differential equations, correlation analysis, Eigen values and eigenvectors, multiple linear regression, bootstrapping and far-field ...

  17. Effective modelling of percolation at the landscape scale using data-based approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selle, Benny; Lischeid, Gunnar; Huwe, Bernd

    2008-06-01

    Process-based models have been extensively applied to assess the impact of landuse change on water quantity and quality at landscape scales. However, the routine application of those models suffers from large computational efforts, lack of transparency and the requirement of many input parameters. Data-based models such as Feed-Forward Multilayer Perceptrons (MLP) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART) may be used as effective models, i.e. simple approximations of complex process-based models. These data-based approaches can subsequently be applied for scenario analysis and as a transparent management tool provided climatic boundary conditions and the basic model assumptions of the process-based models do not change dramatically. In this study, we apply MLP, CART and Multiple Linear Regression (LR) to model the spatially distributed and spatially aggregated percolation in soils using weather, groundwater and soil data. The percolation data is obtained via numerical experiments with Hydrus1D. Thus, the complex process-based model is approximated using simpler data-based approaches. The MLP model explains most of the percolation variance in time and space without using any soil information. This reflects the effective dimensionality of the process-based model and suggests that percolation in the study area may be modelled much simpler than using Hydrus1D. The CART model shows that soil properties play a negligible role for percolation under wet climatic conditions. However, they become more important if the conditions turn drier. The LR method does not yield satisfactory predictions for the spatially distributed percolation however the spatially aggregated percolation is well approximated. This may indicate that the soils behave simpler (i.e. more linear) when percolation dynamics are upscaled.

  18. Comparison of two novel approaches to model fibre reinforced concrete

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Radtke, F.K.F.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L.J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two approaches to model fibre reinforced concrete. In both approaches, discrete fibre distributions and the behaviour of the fibre-matrix interface are explicitly considered. One approach employs the reaction forces from fibre to matrix while the other is based on the partition of unity

  19. Modeling Approaches for Describing Microbial Population Heterogeneity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita

    in a computational (CFD) fluid dynamic model. The anaerobic Growth of a budding yeast population in a continuously run microbioreactor was used as example. The proposed integrated model describes the fluid flow, the local cell size and cell cycle position distributions, as well as the local concentrations of glucose...

  20. Accumulating approach to the life-cycle pension model: practical advantages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaniv Azoulay

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, we make an effort to enhance the practical advantages of the life-cycle pension model. We observe that previous studies are based on a “switching”approach, that is, on the assumption that when a pension fund member reaches a certain age, his accumulated savings are fully switched to another fund with a lower risk profile; we suggest an “accumulating” approach, according to which, at the same age, the member’s previously accumulated wealth continues to be invested in the same fund, while his new regular pension contributions start being directed to another (less risky fund. We consider a hypothetical (average Israeli employee, analyze two age-dependent life-cycle investment distributions of his pension savings, and perform a comparison between the two approaches to the life-cycle model by employing an estimation-based and a simulation-based technique. The results demonstrate that the “accumulating” approach provides: (i higher estimated annualized real returns and real accumulated savings; (ii significantly higher simulated mean and median values of real accumulated savings. Moreover, we document that, though the “accumulating” approach increases the standard deviation of total savings, it does not lead to critically low pension wealth levels even for relatively unfavorable sequences of financial assets’ returns. Therefore, we conclude that the “accumulating” approach to the life-cycle model has a potential significantly to increase pension fund members’ total accumulated wealth relatively to the common “switching” approach, without significantly increasing the members’ risk.

  1. The workshop on ecosystems modelling approaches for South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    roles played by models in the OMP approach, and raises questions about the costs of the data collection. (in particular) needed to apply a multispecies modelling approach in South African fisheries management. It then summarizes the deliberations of workshops held by the Scientific Committees of two international ma-.

  2. A multi-objective approach to improve SWAT model calibration in alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuo, Ye; Marcolini, Giorgia; Disse, Markus; Chiogna, Gabriele

    2018-04-01

    Multi-objective hydrological model calibration can represent a valuable solution to reduce model equifinality and parameter uncertainty. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely applied to investigate water quality and water management issues in alpine catchments. However, the model calibration is generally based on discharge records only, and most of the previous studies have defined a unique set of snow parameters for an entire basin. Only a few studies have considered snow observations to validate model results or have taken into account the possible variability of snow parameters for different subbasins. This work presents and compares three possible calibration approaches. The first two procedures are single-objective calibration procedures, for which all parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated according to river discharge alone. Procedures I and II differ from each other by the assumption used to define snow parameters: The first approach assigned a unique set of snow parameters to the entire basin, whereas the second approach assigned different subbasin-specific sets of snow parameters to each subbasin. The third procedure is a multi-objective calibration, in which we considered snow water equivalent (SWE) information at two different spatial scales (i.e. subbasin and elevation band), in addition to discharge measurements. We tested these approaches in the Upper Adige river basin where a dense network of snow depth measurement stations is available. Only the set of parameters obtained with this multi-objective procedure provided an acceptable prediction of both river discharge and SWE. These findings offer the large community of SWAT users a strategy to improve SWAT modeling in alpine catchments.

  3. A simple approach to modeling ductile failure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wellman, Gerald William

    2012-06-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has the need to predict the behavior of structures after the occurrence of an initial failure. In some cases determining the extent of failure, beyond initiation, is required, while in a few cases the initial failure is a design feature used to tailor the subsequent load paths. In either case, the ability to numerically simulate the initiation and propagation of failures is a highly desired capability. This document describes one approach to the simulation of failure initiation and propagation.

  4. Advanced language modeling approaches, case study: Expert search

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiemstra, Djoerd

    2008-01-01

    This tutorial gives a clear and detailed overview of advanced language modeling approaches and tools, including the use of document priors, translation models, relevance models, parsimonious models and expectation maximization training. Expert search will be used as a case study to explain the

  5. Chemotaxis: A Multi-Scale Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhowmik, Arpan

    We are attempting to build a working simulation of population level self-organization in dictyostelium discoideum cells by combining existing models for chemo-attractant production and detection, along with phenomenological motility models. Our goal is to create a computationally-viable model-framework within which a population of cells can self-generate chemo-attractant waves and self-organize based on the directional cues of those waves. The work is a direct continuation of our previous work published in Physical Biology titled ``Excitable waves and direction-sensing in Dictyostelium Discoideum: steps towards a chemotaxis model''. This is a work in progress, no official draft/paper exists yet.

  6. An Integrated Approach to Modeling Evacuation Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-01

    A spate of recent hurricanes and other natural disasters have drawn a lot of attention to the evacuation decision of individuals. Here we focus on evacuation models that incorporate two economic phenomena that seem to be increasingly important in exp...

  7. Infectious disease modeling a hybrid system approach

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xinzhi

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.

  8. Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

    2010-01-01

    A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

  9. "Dispersion modeling approaches for near road | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roadway design and roadside barriers can have significant effects on the dispersion of traffic-generated pollutants, especially in the near-road environment. Dispersion models that can accurately simulate these effects are needed to fully assess these impacts for a variety of applications. For example, such models can be useful for evaluating the mitigation potential of roadside barriers in reducing near-road exposures and their associated adverse health effects. Two databases, a tracer field study and a wind tunnel study, provide measurements used in the development and/or validation of algorithms to simulate dispersion in the presence of noise barriers. The tracer field study was performed in Idaho Falls, ID, USA with a 6-m noise barrier and a finite line source in a variety of atmospheric conditions. The second study was performed in the meteorological wind tunnel at the US EPA and simulated line sources at different distances from a model noise barrier to capture the effect on emissions from individual lanes of traffic. In both cases, velocity and concentration measurements characterized the effect of the barrier on dispersion.This paper presents comparisons with the two datasets of the barrier algorithms implemented in two different dispersion models: US EPA’s R-LINE (a research dispersion modelling tool under development by the US EPA’s Office of Research and Development) and CERC’s ADMS model (ADMS-Urban). In R-LINE the physical features reveal

  10. Robust modeling of differential gene expression data using normal/independent distributions: a Bayesian approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mojtaba Ganjali

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of identifying differentially expressed genes under different conditions using gene expression microarray data, in the presence of outliers, is discussed. For this purpose, the robust modeling of gene expression data using some powerful distributions known as normal/independent distributions is considered. These distributions include the Student's t and normal distributions which have been used previously, but also include extensions such as the slash, the contaminated normal and the Laplace distributions. The purpose of this paper is to identify differentially expressed genes by considering these distributional assumptions instead of the normal distribution. A Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is adopted for parameter estimation. Two publicly available gene expression data sets are analyzed using the proposed approach. The use of the robust models for detecting differentially expressed genes is investigated. This investigation shows that the choice of model for differentiating gene expression data is very important. This is due to the small number of replicates for each gene and the existence of outlying data. Comparison of the performance of these models is made using different statistical criteria and the ROC curve. The method is illustrated using some simulation studies. We demonstrate the flexibility of these robust models in identifying differentially expressed genes.

  11. A feature-based approach to modeling protein-DNA interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eilon Sharon

    Full Text Available Transcription factor (TF binding to its DNA target site is a fundamental regulatory interaction. The most common model used to represent TF binding specificities is a position specific scoring matrix (PSSM, which assumes independence between binding positions. However, in many cases, this simplifying assumption does not hold. Here, we present feature motif models (FMMs, a novel probabilistic method for modeling TF-DNA interactions, based on log-linear models. Our approach uses sequence features to represent TF binding specificities, where each feature may span multiple positions. We develop the mathematical formulation of our model and devise an algorithm for learning its structural features from binding site data. We also developed a discriminative motif finder, which discovers de novo FMMs that are enriched in target sets of sequences compared to background sets. We evaluate our approach on synthetic data and on the widely used TF chromatin immunoprecipitation (ChIP dataset of Harbison et al. We then apply our algorithm to high-throughput TF ChIP data from mouse and human, reveal sequence features that are present in the binding specificities of mouse and human TFs, and show that FMMs explain TF binding significantly better than PSSMs. Our FMM learning and motif finder software are available at http://genie.weizmann.ac.il/.

  12. Challenging the assumptions for thermal sensation scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schweiker, Marcel; Fuchs, Xaver; Becker, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    Scales are widely used to assess the personal experience of thermal conditions in built environments. Most commonly, thermal sensation is assessed, mainly to determine whether a particular thermal condition is comfortable for individuals. A seven-point thermal sensation scale has been used...... extensively, which is suitable for describing a one-dimensional relationship between physical parameters of indoor environments and subjective thermal sensation. However, human thermal comfort is not merely a physiological but also a psychological phenomenon. Thus, it should be investigated how scales for its...... assessment could benefit from a multidimensional conceptualization. The common assumptions related to the usage of thermal sensation scales are challenged, empirically supported by two analyses. These analyses show that the relationship between temperature and subjective thermal sensation is non...

  13. A consortium approach to glass furnace modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, S.-L.; Golchert, B.; Petrick, M.

    1999-04-20

    Using computational fluid dynamics to model a glass furnace is a difficult task for any one glass company, laboratory, or university to accomplish. The task of building a computational model of the furnace requires knowledge and experience in modeling two dissimilar regimes (the combustion space and the liquid glass bath), along with the skill necessary to couple these two regimes. Also, a detailed set of experimental data is needed in order to evaluate the output of the code to ensure that the code is providing proper results. Since all these diverse skills are not present in any one research institution, a consortium was formed between Argonne National Laboratory, Purdue University, Mississippi State University, and five glass companies in order to marshal these skills into one three-year program. The objective of this program is to develop a fully coupled, validated simulation of a glass melting furnace that may be used by industry to optimize the performance of existing furnaces.

  14. Phytoplankton as Particles - A New Approach to Modeling Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    ER D C/ EL T R -1 3 -1 3 Civil Works Basic Research Program Phytoplankton as Particles – A New Approach to Modeling Algal Blooms E nv... Phytoplankton as Particles – A New Approach to Modeling Algal Blooms Carl F. Cerco and Mark R. Noel Environmental Laboratory U.S. Army Engineer Research... phytoplankton blooms can be modeled by treating phytoplankton as discrete particles capable of self- induced transport via buoyancy regulation or other

  15. Contribution of a companion modelling approach

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2009-09-16

    Sep 16, 2009 ... This paper describes the role of participatory modelling and simulation as a way to provide a meaningful framework to enable actors to understand the interdependencies in peri-urban catchment management. A role-playing game, connecting the quantitative and qualitative dynamics of the resources with ...

  16. Numerical modelling approach for mine backfill

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Muhammad Zaka Emad

    2017-07-24

    Jul 24, 2017 ... Abstract. Numerical modelling is broadly used for assessing complex scenarios in underground mines, including mining sequence and blast-induced vibrations from production blasting. Sublevel stoping mining methods with delayed backfill are extensively used to exploit steeply dipping ore bodies by ...

  17. Energy and development : A modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521

    2008-01-01

    Rapid economic growth of developing countries like India and China implies that these countries become important actors in the global energy system. Examples of this impact are the present day oil shortages and rapidly increasing emissions of greenhouse gases. Global energy models are used explore

  18. Numerical modelling approach for mine backfill

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Muhammad Zaka Emad

    2017-07-24

    Jul 24, 2017 ... pulse is applied as a stress history on the CRF stope. Blast wave data obtained from the on-site monitoring are very complex. It requires processing before interpreting and using it for numerical models. Generally, mining compa- nies hire geophysics experts for interpretation of such data. The blast wave ...

  19. A new approach to model mixed hydrates

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hielscher, S.; Vinš, Václav; Jäger, A.; Hrubý, Jan; Breitkopf, C.; Span, R.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 459, March (2018), s. 170-185 ISSN 0378-3812 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-08218S Institutional support: RVO:61388998 Keywords : gas hydrate * mixture * modeling Subject RIV: BJ - Thermodynamics Impact factor: 2.473, year: 2016 https://www. science direct.com/ science /article/pii/S0378381217304983

  20. Estimation of cold extremes and the identical distribution assumption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parey, Sylvie

    2016-04-01

    Extreme, generally not observed, values of meteorological (or other) hazards are estimated by use of observed time series and application of the statistical extreme value theory. This theory is based on the essential assumption that the events are independent and identically distributed. This assumption is generally not verified for meteorological hazards, firstly because these phenomena are seasonal, and secondly because climate change may induce temporal trends. These issues can be dealt with, by selecting the season of occurrence or handling trends in the extreme distribution parameters for example. When recently updating extreme cold temperatures, we faced different rather new difficulties: the threshold choice, when applying the Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach happened to be exceptionally difficult, and when applying block maxima, different block sizes could lead to significantly different return levels. A more detailed analysis of the exceedances of different cold thresholds showed that when the threshold becomes more extreme, the exceedances are not identically distributed across the years. This behaviour could have been related to the preferred phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during each winter, and the return level estimation has then been based on a sub-sampling between negative and positive NAO winters. The approach and the return level estimation from the sub-samples will be illustrated with an example.

  1. Conflicts versus analytical redundancy relations: a comparative analysis of the model based diagnosis approach from the artificial intelligence and automatic control perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordier, Marie-Odile; Dague, Philippe; Lévy, François; Montmain, Jacky; Staroswiecki, Marcel; Travé-Massuyès, Louise

    2004-10-01

    Two distinct and parallel research communities have been working along the lines of the model-based diagnosis approach: the fault detection and isolation (FDI) community and the diagnostic (DX) community that have evolved in the fields of automatic control and artificial intelligence, respectively. This paper clarifies and links the concepts and assumptions that underlie the FDI analytical redundancy approach and the DX consistency-based logical approach. A formal framework is proposed in order to compare the two approaches and the theoretical proof of their equivalence together with the necessary and sufficient conditions is provided.

  2. Dynamic Metabolic Model Building Based on the Ensemble Modeling Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liao, James C. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Ensemble modeling of kinetic systems addresses the challenges of kinetic model construction, with respect to parameter value selection, and still allows for the rich insights possible from kinetic models. This project aimed to show that constructing, implementing, and analyzing such models is a useful tool for the metabolic engineering toolkit, and that they can result in actionable insights from models. Key concepts are developed and deliverable publications and results are presented.

  3. Integration models: multicultural and liberal approaches confronted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janicki, Wojciech

    2012-01-01

    European societies have been shaped by their Christian past, upsurge of international migration, democratic rule and liberal tradition rooted in religious tolerance. Boosting globalization processes impose new challenges on European societies, striving to protect their diversity. This struggle is especially clearly visible in case of minorities trying to resist melting into mainstream culture. European countries' legal systems and cultural policies respond to these efforts in many ways. Respecting identity politics-driven group rights seems to be the most common approach, resulting in creation of a multicultural society. However, the outcome of respecting group rights may be remarkably contradictory to both individual rights growing out from liberal tradition, and to reinforced concept of integration of immigrants into host societies. The hereby paper discusses identity politics upturn in the context of both individual rights and integration of European societies.

  4. Modelling thermal plume impacts - Kalpakkam approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, T.S.; Anup Kumar, B.; Narasimhan, S.V.

    2002-01-01

    A good understanding of temperature patterns in the receiving waters is essential to know the heat dissipation from thermal plumes originating from coastal power plants. The seasonal temperature profiles of the Kalpakkam coast near Madras Atomic Power Station (MAPS) thermal out fall site are determined and analysed. It is observed that the seasonal current reversal in the near shore zone is one of the major mechanisms for the transport of effluents away from the point of mixing. To further refine our understanding of the mixing and dilution processes, it is necessary to numerically simulate the coastal ocean processes by parameterising the key factors concerned. In this paper, we outline the experimental approach to achieve this objective. (author)

  5. Model-free prediction and regression a transformation-based approach to inference

    CERN Document Server

    Politis, Dimitris N

    2015-01-01

    The Model-Free Prediction Principle expounded upon in this monograph is based on the simple notion of transforming a complex dataset to one that is easier to work with, e.g., i.i.d. or Gaussian. As such, it restores the emphasis on observable quantities, i.e., current and future data, as opposed to unobservable model parameters and estimates thereof, and yields optimal predictors in diverse settings such as regression and time series. Furthermore, the Model-Free Bootstrap takes us beyond point prediction in order to construct frequentist prediction intervals without resort to unrealistic assumptions such as normality. Prediction has been traditionally approached via a model-based paradigm, i.e., (a) fit a model to the data at hand, and (b) use the fitted model to extrapolate/predict future data. Due to both mathematical and computational constraints, 20th century statistical practice focused mostly on parametric models. Fortunately, with the advent of widely accessible powerful computing in the late 1970s, co...

  6. Modelling approach for photochemical pollution studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silibello, C.; Catenacci, G.; Calori, G.; Crapanzano, G.; Pirovano, G.

    1996-01-01

    The comprehension of the relationships between primary pollutants emissions and secondary pollutants concentration and deposition is necessary to design policies and strategies for the maintenance of a healthy environment. The use of mathematical models is a powerful tool to assess the effect of the emissions and of physical and chemical transformations of pollutants on air quality. A photochemical model, Calgrid, developed by CARB (California Air Resources Board), has been used to test the effect of different meteorological and air quality, scenarios on the ozone concentration levels. This way we can evaluate the influence of these conditions to determine the most important chemical species and reactions in atmosphere. The ozone levels are strongly related to the reactive hydrocarbons concentrations and to the solar radiation flux

  7. 'Distorted structure modelling' - a more physical approach to Rapid Distortion Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savill, A.M.

    1979-11-01

    Rapid Distortion Theory is reviewed in the light of the modern mechanistic approach to turbulent motion. The apparent failure of current models, based on this theory, to predict stress intensity ratios accurately in distorted shear flows is attributed to their oversimplistic assumptions concerning the inherent turbulence structure of such flows. A more realistic picture of this structure and the manner in which it responds to distortion is presented in terms of interactions between the mean flow and three principal types of eddies. If Rapid Distortion Theory is modified to account for this it is shown that the stress intensity ratios can be accurately predicted in three test flows. It is concluded that a computational scheme based on Rapid Distortion Theory might ultimately be capable of predicting turbulence parameters in the highly complex geometries of reactor cooling systems. (author)

  8. Colour texture segmentation using modelling approach

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Haindl, Michal; Mikeš, Stanislav

    2005-01-01

    Roč. 3687, č. - (2005), s. 484-491 ISSN 0302-9743. [International Conference on Advances in Pattern Recognition /3./. Bath, 22.08.2005-25.08.2005] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA AV ČR 1ET400750407; GA AV ČR IAA2075302 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : colour texture segmentation * image models * segmentation benchmark Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information

  9. ISM Approach to Model Offshore Outsourcing Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunand Kumar

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In an effort to achieve a competitive advantage via cost reductions and improved market responsiveness, organizations are increasingly employing offshore outsourcing as a major component of their supply chain strategies. But as evident from literature number of risks such as Political risk, Risk due to cultural differences, Compliance and regulatory risk, Opportunistic risk and Organization structural risk, which adversely affect the performance of offshore outsourcing in a supply chain network. This also leads to dissatisfaction among different stake holders. The main objective of this paper is to identify and understand the mutual interaction among various risks which affect the performance of offshore outsourcing.  To this effect, authors have identified various risks through extant review of literature.  From this information, an integrated model using interpretive structural modelling (ISM for risks affecting offshore outsourcing is developed and the structural relationships between these risks are modeled.  Further, MICMAC analysis is done to analyze the driving power and dependency of risks which shall be helpful to managers to identify and classify important criterions and to reveal the direct and indirect effects of each criterion on offshore outsourcing. Results show that political risk and risk due to cultural differences are act as strong drivers.

  10. Causal inferences on the effectiveness of complex social programs: Navigating assumptions, sources of complexity and evaluation design challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterji, Madhabi

    2016-12-01

    This paper explores avenues for navigating evaluation design challenges posed by complex social programs (CSPs) and their environments when conducting studies that call for generalizable, causal inferences on the intervention's effectiveness. A definition is provided of a CSP drawing on examples from different fields, and an evaluation case is analyzed in depth to derive seven (7) major sources of complexity that typify CSPs, threatening assumptions of textbook-recommended experimental designs for performing impact evaluations. Theoretically-supported, alternative methodological strategies are discussed to navigate assumptions and counter the design challenges posed by the complex configurations and ecology of CSPs. Specific recommendations include: sequential refinement of the evaluation design through systems thinking, systems-informed logic modeling; and use of extended term, mixed methods (ETMM) approaches with exploratory and confirmatory phases of the evaluation. In the proposed approach, logic models are refined through direct induction and interactions with stakeholders. To better guide assumption evaluation, question-framing, and selection of appropriate methodological strategies, a multiphase evaluation design is recommended. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Dynamic Group Diffie-Hellman Key Exchange under standard assumptions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bresson, Emmanuel; Chevassut, Olivier; Pointcheval, David

    2002-01-01

    Authenticated Diffie-Hellman key exchange allows two principals communicating over a public network, and each holding public-private keys, to agree on a shared secret value. In this paper we study the natural extension of this cryptographic problem to a group of principals. We begin from existing formal security models and refine them to incorporate major missing details (e.g., strong-corruption and concurrent sessions). Within this model we define the execution of a protocol for authenticated dynamic group Diffie-Hellman and show that it is provably secure under the decisional Diffie-Hellman assumption. Our security result holds in the standard model and thus provides better security guarantees than previously published results in the random oracle model

  12. Agribusiness model approach to territorial food development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murcia Hector Horacio

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available

    Several research efforts have coordinated the academic program of Agricultural Business Management from the University De La Salle (Bogota D.C., to the design and implementation of a sustainable agribusiness model applied to food development, with territorial projection. Rural development is considered as a process that aims to improve the current capacity and potential of the inhabitant of the sector, which refers not only to production levels and productivity of agricultural items. It takes into account the guidelines of the Organization of the United Nations “Millennium Development Goals” and considered the concept of sustainable food and agriculture development, including food security and nutrition in an integrated interdisciplinary context, with holistic and systemic dimension. Analysis is specified by a model with an emphasis on sustainable agribusiness production chains related to agricultural food items in a specific region. This model was correlated with farm (technical objectives, family (social purposes and community (collective orientations projects. Within this dimension are considered food development concepts and methodologies of Participatory Action Research (PAR. Finally, it addresses the need to link the results to low-income communities, within the concepts of the “new rurality”.

  13. Smeared crack modelling approach for corrosion-induced concrete damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thybo, Anna Emilie Anusha; Michel, Alexander; Stang, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    In this paper a smeared crack modelling approach is used to simulate corrosion-induced damage in reinforced concrete. The presented modelling approach utilizes a thermal analogy to mimic the expansive nature of solid corrosion products, while taking into account the penetration of corrosion...... products into the surrounding concrete, non-uniform precipitation of corrosion products, and creep. To demonstrate the applicability of the presented modelling approach, numerical predictions in terms of corrosion-induced deformations as well as formation and propagation of micro- and macrocracks were...

  14. Applied Regression Modeling A Business Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoe, Iain

    2012-01-01

    An applied and concise treatment of statistical regression techniques for business students and professionals who have little or no background in calculusRegression analysis is an invaluable statistical methodology in business settings and is vital to model the relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables, as well as the prediction of a response value given values of the predictors. In view of the inherent uncertainty of business processes, such as the volatility of consumer spending and the presence of market uncertainty, business professionals use regression a

  15. Jackiw-Pi model: A superfield approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Saurabh

    2014-12-01

    We derive the off-shell nilpotent and absolutely anticommuting Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin (BRST) as well as anti-BRST transformations s ( a) b corresponding to the Yang-Mills gauge transformations of 3D Jackiw-Pi model by exploiting the "augmented" super-field formalism. We also show that the Curci-Ferrari restriction, which is a hallmark of any non-Abelian 1-form gauge theories, emerges naturally within this formalism and plays an instrumental role in providing the proof of absolute anticommutativity of s ( a) b .

  16. Quantifying unpredictability: A multiple-model approach based on satellite imagery data from Mediterranean ponds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lluis Franch-Gras

    Full Text Available Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1 gathering long-term data and (2 handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+ to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell's predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions-which are considered very different a priori

  17. A modular approach to numerical human body modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Griotto, G.; Rooij, L. van

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a human body model for a simulated automotive impact scenario must take into account both accurate model response and computational efficiency as key factors. This study presents a "modular numerical human body modeling" approach which allows the creation of a customized human body

  18. Mathematical Modeling in Mathematics Education: Basic Concepts and Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbas, Ayhan Kürsat; Kertil, Mahmut; Çetinkaya, Bülent; Çakiroglu, Erdinç; Alacaci, Cengiz; Bas, Sinem

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical modeling and its role in mathematics education have been receiving increasing attention in Turkey, as in many other countries. The growing body of literature on this topic reveals a variety of approaches to mathematical modeling and related concepts, along with differing perspectives on the use of mathematical modeling in teaching and…

  19. Implicit moral evaluations: A multinomial modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, C Daryl; Payne, B Keith; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Scheffer, Julian A; Inzlicht, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Implicit moral evaluations-i.e., immediate, unintentional assessments of the wrongness of actions or persons-play a central role in supporting moral behavior in everyday life. Yet little research has employed methods that rigorously measure individual differences in implicit moral evaluations. In five experiments, we develop a new sequential priming measure-the Moral Categorization Task-and a multinomial model that decomposes judgment on this task into multiple component processes. These include implicit moral evaluations of moral transgression primes (Unintentional Judgment), accurate moral judgments about target actions (Intentional Judgment), and a directional tendency to judge actions as morally wrong (Response Bias). Speeded response deadlines reduced Intentional Judgment but not Unintentional Judgment (Experiment 1). Unintentional Judgment was stronger toward moral transgression primes than non-moral negative primes (Experiments 2-4). Intentional Judgment was associated with increased error-related negativity, a neurophysiological indicator of behavioral control (Experiment 4). Finally, people who voted for an anti-gay marriage amendment had stronger Unintentional Judgment toward gay marriage primes (Experiment 5). Across Experiments 1-4, implicit moral evaluations converged with moral personality: Unintentional Judgment about wrong primes, but not negative primes, was negatively associated with psychopathic tendencies and positively associated with moral identity and guilt proneness. Theoretical and practical applications of formal modeling for moral psychology are discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Keyring models: An approach to steerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Carl A.; Colbeck, Roger; Shi, Yaoyun

    2018-02-01

    If a measurement is made on one half of a bipartite system, then, conditioned on the outcome, the other half has a new reduced state. If these reduced states defy classical explanation—that is, if shared randomness cannot produce these reduced states for all possible measurements—the bipartite state is said to be steerable. Determining which states are steerable is a challenging problem even for low dimensions. In the case of two-qubit systems, a criterion is known for T-states (that is, those with maximally mixed marginals) under projective measurements. In the current work, we introduce the concept of keyring models—a special class of local hidden state models. When the measurements made correspond to real projectors, these allow us to study steerability beyond T-states. Using keyring models, we completely solve the steering problem for real projective measurements when the state arises from mixing a pure two-qubit state with uniform noise. We also give a partial solution in the case when the uniform noise is replaced by independent depolarizing channels.

  1. Temporal Distinctiveness in Task Switching: Assessing the Mixture-Distribution Assumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Grange

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In task switching, increasing the response--cue interval has been shown to reduce the switch cost. This has been attributed to a time-based decay process influencing the activation of memory representations of tasks (task-sets. Recently, an alternative account based on interference rather than decay has been successfully applied to this data (Horoufchin et al., 2011. In this account, variation of the RCI is thought to influence the temporal distinctiveness (TD of episodic traces in memory, thus affecting their retrieval probability. This can affect performance as retrieval probability influences response time: If retrieval succeeds, responding is fast due to positive priming; if retrieval fails, responding is slow, due to having to perform the task via a slow algorithmic process. This account---and a recent formal model (Grange & Cross, 2015---makes the strong prediction that all RTs are a mixture of one of two processes: a fast process when retrieval succeeds, and a slow process when retrieval fails. The present paper assesses the evidence for this mixture-distribution assumption in TD data. In a first section, statistical evidence for mixture-distributions is found using the fixed-point property test. In a second section, a mathematical process model with mixture-distributions at its core is fitted to the response time distribution data. Both approaches provide good evidence in support of the mixture-distribution assumption, and thus support temporal distinctiveness accounts of the data.

  2. Transsexual parenthood and new role assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faccio, Elena; Bordin, Elena; Cipolletta, Sabrina

    2013-01-01

    This study explores the parental role of transsexuals and compares this to common assumptions about transsexuality and parentage. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 14 male-to-female transsexuals and 14 men, half parents and half non-parents, in order to explore four thematic areas: self-representation of the parental role, the description of the transsexual as a parent, the common representations of transsexuals as a parent, and male and female parental stereotypes. We conducted thematic and lexical analyses of the interviews using Taltac2 software. The results indicate that social representations of transsexuality and parenthood have a strong influence on processes of self-representation. Transsexual parents accurately understood conventional male and female parental prototypes and saw themselves as competent, responsible parents. They constructed their role based on affection toward the child rather than on the complementary role of their wives. In contrast, men's descriptions of transsexual parental roles were simpler and the descriptions of their parental role coincided with their personal experiences. These results suggest that the transsexual journey toward parenthood involves a high degree of re-adjustment, because their parental role does not coincide with a conventional one.

  3. Towards New Probabilistic Assumptions in Business Intelligence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schumann Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the main assumptions of mathematical tools in science is represented by the idea of measurability and additivity of reality. For discovering the physical universe additive measures such as mass, force, energy, temperature, etc. are used. Economics and conventional business intelligence try to continue this empiricist tradition and in statistical and econometric tools they appeal only to the measurable aspects of reality. However, a lot of important variables of economic systems cannot be observable and additive in principle. These variables can be called symbolic values or symbolic meanings and studied within symbolic interactionism, the theory developed since George Herbert Mead and Herbert Blumer. In statistical and econometric tools of business intelligence we accept only phenomena with causal connections measured by additive measures. In the paper we show that in the social world we deal with symbolic interactions which can be studied by non-additive labels (symbolic meanings or symbolic values. For accepting the variety of such phenomena we should avoid additivity of basic labels and construct a new probabilistic method in business intelligence based on non-Archimedean probabilities.

  4. Economic Growth Assumptions in Climate and Energy Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Y. Krakauer

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that the economic growth seen in recent decades will continue has dominated the discussion of future greenhouse gas emissions and the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. Given that long-term economic growth is uncertain, the impacts of a wide range of growth trajectories should be considered. In particular, slower economic growth would imply that future generations will be relatively less able to invest in emissions controls or adapt to the detrimental impacts of climate change. Taking into consideration the possibility of economic slowdown therefore heightens the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions now by moving to renewable energy sources, even if this incurs short-term economic cost. I quantify this counterintuitive impact of economic growth assumptions on present-day policy decisions in a simple global economy-climate model (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE. In DICE, slow future growth increases the economically optimal present-day carbon tax rate and the utility of taxing carbon emissions, although the magnitude of the increase is sensitive to model parameters, including the rate of social time preference and the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. Future scenario development should specifically include low-growth scenarios, and the possibility of low-growth economic trajectories should be taken into account in climate policy analyses.

  5. Studies on the effect of flaw detection probability assumptions on risk reduction at inspection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simola, K.; Cronvall, O.; Maennistoe, I.; Gunnars, J.; Alverlind, L.; Dillstroem, P.; Gandossi, L.

    2009-12-01

    The aim of the project was to study the effect of POD assumptions on failure probability using structural reliability models. The main interest was to investigate whether it is justifiable to use a simplified POD curve e.g. in risk-informed in-service inspection (RI-ISI) studies. The results of the study indicate that the use of a simplified POD curve could be justifiable in RI-ISI applications. Another aim was to compare various structural reliability calculation approaches for a set of cases. Through benchmarking one can identify differences and similarities between modelling approaches, and provide added confidence on models and identify development needs. Comparing the leakage probabilities calculated by different approaches at the end of plant lifetime (60 years) shows that the results are very similar when inspections are not accounted for. However, when inspections are taken into account the predicted order of magnitude differs. Further studies would be needed to investigate the reasons for the differences. Development needs and plans for the benchmarked structural reliability models are discussed. (author)

  6. Functional RG approach to the Potts model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Alì Zinati, Riccardo; Codello, Alessandro

    2018-01-01

    The critical behavior of the (n+1) -states Potts model in d-dimensions is studied with functional renormalization group techniques. We devise a general method to derive β-functions for continuous values of d and n and we write the flow equation for the effective potential (LPA’) when instead n is fixed. We calculate several critical exponents, which are found to be in good agreement with Monte Carlo simulations and ɛ-expansion results available in the literature. In particular, we focus on Percolation (n\\to0) and Spanning Forest (n\\to-1) which are the only non-trivial universality classes in d  =  4,5 and where our methods converge faster.

  7. Genetic Algorithm Approaches to Prebiobiotic Chemistry Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohn, Jason; Colombano, Silvano

    1997-01-01

    We model an artificial chemistry comprised of interacting polymers by specifying two initial conditions: a distribution of polymers and a fixed set of reversible catalytic reactions. A genetic algorithm is used to find a set of reactions that exhibit a desired dynamical behavior. Such a technique is useful because it allows an investigator to determine whether a specific pattern of dynamics can be produced, and if it can, the reaction network found can be then analyzed. We present our results in the context of studying simplified chemical dynamics in theorized protocells - hypothesized precursors of the first living organisms. Our results show that given a small sample of plausible protocell reaction dynamics, catalytic reaction sets can be found. We present cases where this is not possible and also analyze the evolved reaction sets.

  8. Fusion modeling approach for novel plasma sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melazzi, D; Manente, M; Pavarin, D; Cardinali, A

    2012-01-01

    The physics involved in the coupling, propagation and absorption of RF helicon waves (electronic whistler) in low temperature Helicon plasma sources is investigated by solving the 3D Maxwell-Vlasov model equations using a WKB asymptotic expansion. The reduced set of equations is formally Hamiltonian and allows for the reconstruction of the wave front of the propagating wave, monitoring along the calculation that the WKB expansion remains satisfied. This method can be fruitfully employed in a new investigation of the power deposition mechanisms involved in common Helicon low temperature plasma sources when a general confinement magnetic field configuration is allowed, unveiling new physical insight in the wave propagation and absorption phenomena and stimulating further research for the design of innovative and more efficient low temperature plasma sources. A brief overview of this methodology and its capabilities has been presented in this paper.

  9. Carbonate rock depositional models: A microfacies approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carozzi, A.V.

    1988-01-01

    Carbonate rocks contain more than 50% by weight carbonate minerals such as calcite, dolomite, and siderite. Understanding how these rocks form can lead to more efficient methods of petroleum exploration. Micofacies analysis techniques can be used as a method of predicting models of sedimentation for carbonate rocks. Micofacies in carbonate rocks can be seen clearly only in thin sections under a microscope. This section analysis of carbonate rocks is a tool that can be used to understand depositional environments, diagenetic evolution of carbonate rocks, and the formation of porosity and permeability in carbonate rocks. The use of micofacies analysis techniques is applied to understanding the origin and formation of carbonate ramps, carbonate platforms, and carbonate slopes and basins. This book will be of interest to students and professionals concerned with the disciplines of sedimentary petrology, sedimentology, petroleum geology, and palentology.

  10. Wind Turbine Control: Robust Model Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood

    . This is because, on the one hand, control methods can decrease the cost of energy by keeping the turbine close to its maximum efficiency. On the other hand, they can reduce structural fatigue and therefore increase the lifetime of the wind turbine. The power produced by a wind turbine is proportional...... to the square of its rotor radius, therefore it seems reasonable to increase the size of the wind turbine in order to capture more power. However as the size increases, the mass of the blades increases by cube of the rotor size. This means in order to keep structural feasibility and mass of the whole structure...... reasonable, the ratio of mass to size should be reduced. This trend results in more flexible structures. Control of the flexible structure of a wind turbine in a wind field with stochastic nature is very challenging. In this thesis we are examining a number of robust model based methods for wind turbine...

  11. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  12. A dual model approach to ground water recovery trench design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clodfelter, C.L.; Crouch, M.S.

    1992-01-01

    The design of trenches for contaminated ground water recovery must consider several variables. This paper presents a dual-model approach for effectively recovering contaminated ground water migrating toward a trench by advection. The approach involves an analytical model to determine the vertical influence of the trench and a numerical flow model to determine the capture zone within the trench and the surrounding aquifer. The analytical model is utilized by varying trench dimensions and head values to design a trench which meets the remediation criteria. The numerical flow model is utilized to select the type of backfill and location of sumps within the trench. The dual-model approach can be used to design a recovery trench which effectively captures advective migration of contaminants in the vertical and horizontal planes

  13. Toward the virtual cell: Automated approaches to building models of subcellular organization “learned” from microscopy images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buck, Taráz E.; Li, Jieyue; Rohde, Gustavo K.; Murphy, Robert F.

    2012-01-01

    We review state-of-the-art computational methods for constructing, from image data, generative statistical models of cellular and nuclear shapes and the arrangement of subcellular structures and proteins within them. These automated approaches allow consistent analysis of images of cells for the purposes of learning the range of possible phenotypes, discriminating between them, and informing further investigation. Such models can also provide realistic geometry and initial protein locations to simulations in order to better understand cellular and subcellular processes. To determine the structures of cellular components and how proteins and other molecules are distributed among them, the generative modeling approach described here can be coupled with high throughput imaging technology to infer and represent subcellular organization from data with few a priori assumptions. We also discuss potential improvements to these methods and future directions for research. PMID:22777818

  14. Simple queueing approach to segregation dynamics in Schelling model

    OpenAIRE

    Sobkowicz, Pawel

    2007-01-01

    A simple queueing approach for segregation of agents in modified one dimensional Schelling segregation model is presented. The goal is to arrive at simple formula for the number of unhappy agents remaining after the segregation.

  15. Virtuous organization: A structural equation modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Zamahani

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available For years, the idea of virtue was unfavorable among researchers and virtues were traditionally considered as culture-specific, relativistic and they were supposed to be associated with social conservatism, religious or moral dogmatism, and scientific irrelevance. Virtue and virtuousness have been recently considered seriously among organizational researchers. The proposed study of this paper examines the relationships between leadership, organizational culture, human resource, structure and processes, care for community and virtuous organization. Structural equation modeling is employed to investigate the effects of each variable on other components. The data used in this study consists of questionnaire responses from employees in Payam e Noor University in Yazd province. A total of 250 questionnaires were sent out and a total of 211 valid responses were received. Our results have revealed that all the five variables have positive and significant impacts on virtuous organization. Among the five variables, organizational culture has the most direct impact (0.80 and human resource has the most total impact (0.844 on virtuous organization.

  16. A systemic approach for modeling soil functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Hans-Jörg; Bartke, Stephan; Daedlow, Katrin; Helming, Katharina; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Lang, Birgit; Rabot, Eva; Russell, David; Stößel, Bastian; Weller, Ulrich; Wiesmeier, Martin; Wollschläger, Ute

    2018-03-01

    The central importance of soil for the functioning of terrestrial systems is increasingly recognized. Critically relevant for water quality, climate control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity, soil provides more functions than just the basis for agricultural production. Nowadays, soil is increasingly under pressure as a limited resource for the production of food, energy and raw materials. This has led to an increasing demand for concepts assessing soil functions so that they can be adequately considered in decision-making aimed at sustainable soil management. The various soil science disciplines have progressively developed highly sophisticated methods to explore the multitude of physical, chemical and biological processes in soil. It is not obvious, however, how the steadily improving insight into soil processes may contribute to the evaluation of soil functions. Here, we present to a new systemic modeling framework that allows for a consistent coupling between reductionist yet observable indicators for soil functions with detailed process understanding. It is based on the mechanistic relationships between soil functional attributes, each explained by a network of interacting processes as derived from scientific evidence. The non-linear character of these interactions produces stability and resilience of soil with respect to functional characteristics. We anticipate that this new conceptional framework will integrate the various soil science disciplines and help identify important future research questions at the interface between disciplines. It allows the overwhelming complexity of soil systems to be adequately coped with and paves the way for steadily improving our capability to assess soil functions based on scientific understanding.

  17. A Constructive Neural-Network Approach to Modeling Psychological Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Thomas R.

    2012-01-01

    This article reviews a particular computational modeling approach to the study of psychological development--that of constructive neural networks. This approach is applied to a variety of developmental domains and issues, including Piagetian tasks, shift learning, language acquisition, number comparison, habituation of visual attention, concept…

  18. Towards Translating Graph Transformation Approaches by Model Transformations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermann, F.; Kastenberg, H.; Modica, T.; Karsai, G.; Taentzer, G.

    2006-01-01

    Recently, many researchers are working on semantics preserving model transformation. In the field of graph transformation one can think of translating graph grammars written in one approach to a behaviourally equivalent graph grammar in another approach. In this paper we translate graph grammars

  19. An Almost Integration-free Approach to Ordered Response Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Praag, B.M.S.; Ferrer-i-Carbonell, A.

    2006-01-01

    'In this paper we propose an alternative approach to the estimation of ordered response models. We show that the Probit-method may be replaced by a simple OLS-approach, called P(robit)OLS, without any loss of efficiency. This method can be generalized to the analysis of panel data. For large-scale

  20. Optimizing technology investments: a broad mission model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, R.

    2003-01-01

    A long-standing problem in NASA is how to allocate scarce technology development resources across advanced technologies in order to best support a large set of future potential missions. Within NASA, two orthogonal paradigms have received attention in recent years: the real-options approach and the broad mission model approach. This paper focuses on the latter.

  1. A generalized quarter car modelling approach with frame flexibility ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... mass distribution and damping. Here we propose a generalized quarter-car modelling approach, incorporating both the frame as well as other-wheel ground contacts. Our approach is linear, uses Laplace transforms, involves vertical motions of key points of interest and has intermediate complexity with improved realism.

  2. Local conservation scores without a priori assumptions on neutral substitution rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dingel, Janis; Hanus, Pavol; Leonardi, Niccolò; Hagenauer, Joachim; Zech, Jürgen; Mueller, Jakob C

    2008-04-11

    Comparative genomics aims to detect signals of evolutionary conservation as an indicator of functional constraint. Surprisingly, results of the ENCODE project revealed that about half of the experimentally verified functional elements found in non-coding DNA were classified as unconstrained by computational predictions. Following this observation, it has been hypothesized that this may be partly explained by biased estimates on neutral evolutionary rates used by existing sequence conservation metrics. All methods we are aware of rely on a comparison with the neutral rate and conservation is estimated by measuring the deviation of a particular genomic region from this rate. Consequently, it is a reasonable assumption that inaccurate neutral rate estimates may lead to biased conservation and constraint estimates. We propose a conservation signal that is produced by local Maximum Likelihood estimation of evolutionary parameters using an optimized sliding window and present a Kullback-Leibler projection that allows multiple different estimated parameters to be transformed into a conservation measure. This conservation measure does not rely on assumptions about neutral evolutionary substitution rates and little a priori assumptions on the properties of the conserved regions are imposed. We show the accuracy of our approach (KuLCons) on synthetic data and compare it to the scores generated by state-of-the-art methods (phastCons, GERP, SCONE) in an ENCODE region. We find that KuLCons is most often in agreement with the conservation/constraint signatures detected by GERP and SCONE while qualitatively very different patterns from phastCons are observed. Opposed to standard methods KuLCons can be extended to more complex evolutionary models, e.g. taking insertion and deletion events into account and corresponding results show that scores obtained under this model can diverge significantly from scores using the simpler model. Our results suggest that discriminating among the

  3. Local conservation scores without a priori assumptions on neutral substitution rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hagenauer Joachim

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Comparative genomics aims to detect signals of evolutionary conservation as an indicator of functional constraint. Surprisingly, results of the ENCODE project revealed that about half of the experimentally verified functional elements found in non-coding DNA were classified as unconstrained by computational predictions. Following this observation, it has been hypothesized that this may be partly explained by biased estimates on neutral evolutionary rates used by existing sequence conservation metrics. All methods we are aware of rely on a comparison with the neutral rate and conservation is estimated by measuring the deviation of a particular genomic region from this rate. Consequently, it is a reasonable assumption that inaccurate neutral rate estimates may lead to biased conservation and constraint estimates. Results We propose a conservation signal that is produced by local Maximum Likelihood estimation of evolutionary parameters using an optimized sliding window and present a Kullback-Leibler projection that allows multiple different estimated parameters to be transformed into a conservation measure. This conservation measure does not rely on assumptions about neutral evolutionary substitution rates and little a priori assumptions on the properties of the conserved regions are imposed. We show the accuracy of our approach (KuLCons on synthetic data and compare it to the scores generated by state-of-the-art methods (phastCons, GERP, SCONE in an ENCODE region. We find that KuLCons is most often in agreement with the conservation/constraint signatures detected by GERP and SCONE while qualitatively very different patterns from phastCons are observed. Opposed to standard methods KuLCons can be extended to more complex evolutionary models, e.g. taking insertion and deletion events into account and corresponding results show that scores obtained under this model can diverge significantly from scores using the simpler model

  4. Numerical approaches to expansion process modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Alekseev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forage production is currently undergoing a period of intensive renovation and introduction of the most advanced technologies and equipment. More and more often such methods as barley toasting, grain extrusion, steaming and grain flattening, boiling bed explosion, infrared ray treatment of cereals and legumes, followed by flattening, and one-time or two-time granulation of the purified whole grain without humidification in matrix presses By grinding the granules. These methods require special apparatuses, machines, auxiliary equipment, created on the basis of different methods of compiled mathematical models. When roasting, simulating the heat fields arising in the working chamber, provide such conditions, the decomposition of a portion of the starch to monosaccharides, which makes the grain sweetish, but due to protein denaturation the digestibility of the protein and the availability of amino acids decrease somewhat. Grain is roasted mainly for young animals in order to teach them to eat food at an early age, stimulate the secretory activity of digestion, better development of the masticatory muscles. In addition, the high temperature is detrimental to bacterial contamination and various types of fungi, which largely avoids possible diseases of the gastrointestinal tract. This method has found wide application directly on the farms. Apply when used in feeding animals and legumes: peas, soy, lupine and lentils. These feeds are preliminarily ground, and then cooked or steamed for 1 hour for 30–40 minutes. In the feed mill. Such processing of feeds allows inactivating the anti-nutrients in them, which reduce the effectiveness of their use. After processing, legumes are used as protein supplements in an amount of 25–30% of the total nutritional value of the diet. But it is recommended to cook and steal a grain of good quality. A poor-quality grain that has been stored for a long time and damaged by pathogenic micro flora is subject to

  5. Graphical approach to model reduction for nonlinear biochemical networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, David O; Krainak, Nicholas C; Saucerman, Jeffrey J

    2011-01-01

    Model reduction is a central challenge to the development and analysis of multiscale physiology models. Advances in model reduction are needed not only for computational feasibility but also for obtaining conceptual insights from complex systems. Here, we introduce an intuitive graphical approach to model reduction based on phase plane analysis. Timescale separation is identified by the degree of hysteresis observed in phase-loops, which guides a "concentration-clamp" procedure for estimating explicit algebraic relationships between species equilibrating on fast timescales. The primary advantages of this approach over Jacobian-based timescale decomposition are that: 1) it incorporates nonlinear system dynamics, and 2) it can be easily visualized, even directly from experimental data. We tested this graphical model reduction approach using a 25-variable model of cardiac β(1)-adrenergic signaling, obtaining 6- and 4-variable reduced models that retain good predictive capabilities even in response to new perturbations. These 6 signaling species appear to be optimal "kinetic biomarkers" of the overall β(1)-adrenergic pathway. The 6-variable reduced model is well suited for integration into multiscale models of heart function, and more generally, this graphical model reduction approach is readily applicable to a variety of other complex biological systems.

  6. Graphical approach to model reduction for nonlinear biochemical networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David O Holland

    Full Text Available Model reduction is a central challenge to the development and analysis of multiscale physiology models. Advances in model reduction are needed not only for computational feasibility but also for obtaining conceptual insights from complex systems. Here, we introduce an intuitive graphical approach to model reduction based on phase plane analysis. Timescale separation is identified by the degree of hysteresis observed in phase-loops, which guides a "concentration-clamp" procedure for estimating explicit algebraic relationships between species equilibrating on fast timescales. The primary advantages of this approach over Jacobian-based timescale decomposition are that: 1 it incorporates nonlinear system dynamics, and 2 it can be easily visualized, even directly from experimental data. We tested this graphical model reduction approach using a 25-variable model of cardiac β(1-adrenergic signaling, obtaining 6- and 4-variable reduced models that retain good predictive capabilities even in response to new perturbations. These 6 signaling species appear to be optimal "kinetic biomarkers" of the overall β(1-adrenergic pathway. The 6-variable reduced model is well suited for integration into multiscale models of heart function, and more generally, this graphical model reduction approach is readily applicable to a variety of other complex biological systems.

  7. Data Analysis A Model Comparison Approach, Second Edition

    CERN Document Server

    Judd, Charles M; Ryan, Carey S

    2008-01-01

    This completely rewritten classic text features many new examples, insights and topics including mediational, categorical, and multilevel models. Substantially reorganized, this edition provides a briefer, more streamlined examination of data analysis. Noted for its model-comparison approach and unified framework based on the general linear model, the book provides readers with a greater understanding of a variety of statistical procedures. This consistent framework, including consistent vocabulary and notation, is used throughout to develop fewer but more powerful model building techniques. T

  8. A Model Management Approach for Co-Simulation Model Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, X.C.; Broenink, Johannes F.; Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2011-01-01

    Simulating formal models is a common means for validating the correctness of the system design and reduce the time-to-market. In most of the embedded control system design, multiple engineering disciplines and various domain-specific models are often involved, such as mechanical, control, software

  9. An Analytic Model Approach to the Frequency of Exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Traub, Wesley A.

    2016-10-01

    The underlying population of exoplanets around stars in the Kepler sample can be inferred by a simulation that includes binning the Kepler planets in radius and period, invoking an empirical noise model, assuming a model exoplanet distribution function, randomly assigning planets to each of the Kepler target stars, asking whether each planet's transit signal could be detected by Kepler, binning the resulting simulated detections, comparing the simulations with the observed data sample, and iterating on the model parameters until a satisfactory fit is obtained. The process is designed to simulate the Kepler observing procedure. The key assumption is that the distribution function is the product of separable functions of period and radius. Any additional suspected biases in the sample can be handled by adjusting the noise model or selective editing of the range of input planets. An advantage of this overall procedure is that it is a forward calculation designed to simulate the observed data, subject to a presumed underlying population distribution, minimizing the effect of bin-to-bin fluctuations. Another advantage is that the resulting distribution function can be extended to values of period and radius that go beyond the sample space, including, for example, application to estimating eta-sub-Earth, and also estimating the expected science yields of future direct-imaging exoplanet missions such as WFIRST-AFTA.

  10. A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared climate policy assumptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Ebi, K.L.; Kram, T.; Riahi, K.; Winkler, J.; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-01-01

    The new scenario framework facilitates the coupling of multiple socioeconomic reference pathways with climate model products using the representative concentration pathways. This will allow for improved assessment of climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Assumptions about climate policy play a

  11. Regression assumptions in clinical psychology research practice—a systematic review of common misconceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, Anja F.

    2017-01-01

    Misconceptions about the assumptions behind the standard linear regression model are widespread and dangerous. These lead to using linear regression when inappropriate, and to employing alternative procedures with less statistical power when unnecessary. Our systematic literature review investigated employment and reporting of assumption checks in twelve clinical psychology journals. Findings indicate that normality of the variables themselves, rather than of the errors, was wrongfully held for a necessary assumption in 4% of papers that use regression. Furthermore, 92% of all papers using linear regression were unclear about their assumption checks, violating APA-recommendations. This paper appeals for a heightened awareness for and increased transparency in the reporting of statistical assumption checking. PMID:28533971

  12. A novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, P.E.; Kangas, L.J.; Hashem, S.; Kouzes, R.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Allen, P.A. [Life Link, Richland, WA (United States)

    1995-07-01

    A novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system is introduced. A model exhibits a subset of the dynamics of the cardiovascular behavior of an individual by using a recurrent artificial neural network. Potentially, a model will be incorporated into a cardiovascular diagnostic system. This approach is unique in that each cardiovascular model is developed from physiological measurements of an individual. Any differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual at a given time are used for diagnosis. This approach also exploits sensor fusion to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors. The advantage of sensor fusion has been demonstrated in applications including control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

  13. Inferring gas-phase metallicity gradients of galaxies at the seeing limit: a forward modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carton, David; Brinchmann, Jarle; Shirazi, Maryam; Contini, Thierry; Epinat, Benoît; Erroz-Ferrer, Santiago; Marino, Raffaella A.; Martinsson, Thomas P. K.; Richard, Johan; Patrício, Vera

    2017-06-01

    We present a method to recover the gas-phase metallicity gradients from integral field spectroscopic (IFS) observations of barely resolved galaxies. We take a forward modelling approach and compare our models to the observed spatial distribution of emission-line fluxes, accounting for the degrading effects of seeing and spatial binning. The method is flexible and is not limited to particular emission lines or instruments. We test the model through comparison to synthetic observations and use downgraded observations of nearby galaxies to validate this work. As a proof of concept, we also apply the model to real IFS observations of high-redshift galaxies. From our testing, we show that the inferred metallicity gradients and central metallicities are fairly insensitive to the assumptions made in the model and that they are reliably recovered for galaxies with sizes approximately equal to the half width at half-maximum of the point spread function. However, we also find that the presence of star-forming clumps can significantly complicate the interpretation of metallicity gradients in moderately resolved high-redshift galaxies. Therefore, we emphasize that care should be taken when comparing nearby well-resolved observations to high-redshift observations of partially resolved galaxies.

  14. A model-driven approach to information security compliance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Correia, Anacleto; Gonçalves, António; Teodoro, M. Filomena

    2017-06-01

    The availability, integrity and confidentiality of information are fundamental to the long-term survival of any organization. Information security is a complex issue that must be holistically approached, combining assets that support corporate systems, in an extended network of business partners, vendors, customers and other stakeholders. This paper addresses the conception and implementation of information security systems, conform the ISO/IEC 27000 set of standards, using the model-driven approach. The process begins with the conception of a domain level model (computation independent model) based on information security vocabulary present in the ISO/IEC 27001 standard. Based on this model, after embedding in the model mandatory rules for attaining ISO/IEC 27001 conformance, a platform independent model is derived. Finally, a platform specific model serves the base for testing the compliance of information security systems with the ISO/IEC 27000 set of standards.

  15. Reusable Component Model Development Approach for Parallel and Distributed Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feng; Yao, Yiping; Chen, Huilong; Yao, Feng

    2014-01-01

    Model reuse is a key issue to be resolved in parallel and distributed simulation at present. However, component models built by different domain experts usually have diversiform interfaces, couple tightly, and bind with simulation platforms closely. As a result, they are difficult to be reused across different simulation platforms and applications. To address the problem, this paper first proposed a reusable component model framework. Based on this framework, then our reusable model development approach is elaborated, which contains two phases: (1) domain experts create simulation computational modules observing three principles to achieve their independence; (2) model developer encapsulates these simulation computational modules with six standard service interfaces to improve their reusability. The case study of a radar model indicates that the model developed using our approach has good reusability and it is easy to be used in different simulation platforms and applications. PMID:24729751

  16. Mathematical models for therapeutic approaches to control HIV disease transmission

    CERN Document Server

    Roy, Priti Kumar

    2015-01-01

    The book discusses different therapeutic approaches based on different mathematical models to control the HIV/AIDS disease transmission. It uses clinical data, collected from different cited sources, to formulate the deterministic as well as stochastic mathematical models of HIV/AIDS. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic and stochastic points of view, to optimal control strategy with perfect drug adherence and also tries to seek viewpoints of the same issue from different angles with various mathematical models to computer simulations. The book presents essential methods and techniques for students who are interested in designing epidemiological models on HIV/AIDS. It also guides research scientists, working in the periphery of mathematical modeling, and helps them to explore a hypothetical method by examining its consequences in the form of a mathematical modelling and making some scientific predictions. The model equations, mathematical analysis and several numerical simulations that are...

  17. Philosophy of Technology Assumptions in Educational Technology Leadership

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Mark David

    2017-01-01

    A qualitative study using grounded theory methods was conducted to (a) examine what philosophy of technology assumptions are present in the thinking of K-12 technology leaders, (b) investigate how the assumptions may influence technology decision making, and (c) explore whether technological determinist assumptions are present. Subjects involved…

  18. 41 CFR 60-3.9 - No assumption of validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true No assumption of validity... assumption of validity. A. Unacceptable substitutes for evidence of validity. Under no circumstances will the... of it's validity be accepted in lieu of evidence of validity. Specifically ruled out are: assumptions...

  19. The zero-sum assumption in neutral biodiversity theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Etienne, R.S.; Alonso, D.; McKane, A.J.

    2007-01-01

    The neutral theory of biodiversity as put forward by Hubbell in his 2001 monograph has received much criticism for its unrealistic simplifying assumptions. These are the assumptions of functional equivalence among different species (neutrality), the assumption of point mutation speciation, and the

  20. Semi-Supervised Transductive Hot Spot Predictor Working on Multiple Assumptions

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Jim Jing-Yan

    2014-05-23

    Protein-protein interactions are critically dependent on just a few residues (“hot spots”) at the interfaces. Hot spots make a dominant contribution to the binding free energy and if mutated they can disrupt the interaction. As mutagenesis studies require significant experimental efforts, there exists a need for accurate and reliable computational hot spot prediction methods. Compared to the supervised hot spot prediction algorithms, the semi-supervised prediction methods can take into consideration both the labeled and unlabeled residues in the dataset during the prediction procedure. The transductive support vector machine has been utilized for this task and demonstrated a better prediction performance. To the best of our knowledge, however, none of the transductive semi-supervised algorithms takes all the three semisupervised assumptions, i.e., smoothness, cluster and manifold assumptions, together into account during learning. In this paper, we propose a novel semi-supervised method for hot spot residue prediction, by considering all the three semisupervised assumptions using nonlinear models. Our algorithm, IterPropMCS, works in an iterative manner. In each iteration, the algorithm first propagates the labels of the labeled residues to the unlabeled ones, along the shortest path between them on a graph, assuming that they lie on a nonlinear manifold. Then it selects the most confident residues as the labeled ones for the next iteration, according to the cluster and smoothness criteria, which is implemented by a nonlinear density estimator. Experiments on a benchmark dataset, using protein structure-based features, demonstrate that our approach is effective in predicting hot spots and compares favorably to other available methods. The results also show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art transductive learning methods.

  1. Interoperable transactions in business models: A structured approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weigand, H.; Verharen, E.; Dignum, F.P.M.

    1996-01-01

    Recent database research has given much attention to the specification of "flexible" transactions that can be used in interoperable systems. Starting from a quite different angle, Business Process Modelling has approached the area of communication modelling as well (the Language/Action

  2. A Model-Driven Approach to e-Course Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savic, Goran; Segedinac, Milan; Milenkovic, Dušica; Hrin, Tamara; Segedinac, Mirjana

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents research on using a model-driven approach to the development and management of electronic courses. We propose a course management system which stores a course model represented as distinct machine-readable components containing domain knowledge of different course aspects. Based on this formally defined platform-independent…

  3. Modeling Alaska boreal forests with a controlled trend surface approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Jingjing Liang

    2012-01-01

    An approach of Controlled Trend Surface was proposed to simultaneously take into consideration large-scale spatial trends and nonspatial effects. A geospatial model of the Alaska boreal forest was developed from 446 permanent sample plots, which addressed large-scale spatial trends in recruitment, diameter growth, and mortality. The model was tested on two sets of...

  4. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  5. Towards modeling future energy infrastructures - the ELECTRA system engineering approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uslar, Mathias; Heussen, Kai

    2016-01-01

    of the IEC 62559 use case template as well as needed changes to cope particularly with the aspects of controller conflicts and Greenfield technology modeling. From the original envisioned use of the standards, we show a possible transfer on how to properly deal with a Greenfield approach when modeling....

  6. Child human model development: a hybrid validation approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forbes, P.A.; Rooij, L. van; Rodarius, C.; Crandall, J.

    2008-01-01

    The current study presents a development and validation approach of a child human body model that will help understand child impact injuries and improve the biofidelity of child anthropometric test devices. Due to the lack of fundamental child biomechanical data needed to fully develop such models a

  7. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  8. Refining the committee approach and uncertainty prediction in hydrological modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  9. Product Trial Processing (PTP): a model approach from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Product Trial Processing (PTP): a model approach from theconsumer's perspective. ... Global Journal of Social Sciences ... Among the constructs used in the model of consumer's processing of product trail includes; experiential and non- experiential attributes, perceived validity of product trial, consumer perceived expertise, ...

  10. A MIXTURE LIKELIHOOD APPROACH FOR GENERALIZED LINEAR-MODELS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    WEDEL, M; DESARBO, WS

    1995-01-01

    A mixture model approach is developed that simultaneously estimates the posterior membership probabilities of observations to a number of unobservable groups or latent classes, and the parameters of a generalized linear model which relates the observations, distributed according to some member of

  11. Bioaccumulation factors and the steady state assumption for cesium isotopes in aquatic foodwebs near nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowan, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    Steady state approaches, such as transfer coefficients or bioaccumulation factors, are commonly used to model the bioaccumulation of 137 Cs in aquatic foodwebs from routine operations and releases from nuclear generating stations and other nuclear facilities. Routine releases from nuclear generating stations and facilities, however, often consist of pulses as liquid waste is stored, analyzed to ensure regulatory compliance and then released. The effect of repeated pulse releases on the steady state assumption inherent in the bioaccumulation factor approach has not been evaluated. In this study, I examine the steady state assumption for aquatic biota by analyzing data for two cesium isotopes in the same biota, one isotope in steady state (stable 133 Cs) from geologic sources and the other released in pulses ( 137 Cs) from reactor operations. I also compare 137 Cs bioaccumulation factors for similar upstream populations from the same system exposed solely to weapon test 137 Cs, and assumed to be in steady state. The steady state assumption appears to be valid for small organisms at lower trophic levels (zooplankton, rainbow smelt and 0+ yellow perch) but not for older and larger fish at higher trophic levels (walleye). Attempts to account for previous exposure and retention through a biokinetics approach had a similar effect on steady state, upstream and non-steady state, downstream populations of walleye, but were ineffective in explaining the more or less constant deviation between fish with steady state exposures and non-steady state exposures of about 2-fold for all age classes of walleye. These results suggest that for large, piscivorous fish, repeated exposure to short duration, pulse releases leads to much higher 137 Cs BAFs than expected from 133 Cs BAFs for the same fish or 137 Cs BAFs for similar populations in the same system not impacted by reactor releases. These results suggest that the steady state approach should be used with caution in any situation

  12. Bioaccumulation factors and the steady state assumption for cesium isotopes in aquatic foodwebs near nuclear facilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowan, D J

    2013-07-01

    Steady state approaches, such as transfer coefficients or bioaccumulation factors, are commonly used to model the bioaccumulation of (137)Cs in aquatic foodwebs from routine operations and releases from nuclear generating stations and other nuclear facilities. Routine releases from nuclear generating stations and facilities, however, often consist of pulses as liquid waste is stored, analyzed to ensure regulatory compliance and then released. The effect of repeated pulse releases on the steady state assumption inherent in the bioaccumulation factor approach has not been evaluated. In this study, I examine the steady state assumption for aquatic biota by analyzing data for two cesium isotopes in the same biota, one isotope in steady state (stable (133)Cs) from geologic sources and the other released in pulses ((137)Cs) from reactor operations. I also compare (137)Cs bioaccumulation factors for similar upstream populations from the same system exposed solely to weapon test (137)Cs, and assumed to be in steady state. The steady state assumption appears to be valid for small organisms at lower trophic levels (zooplankton, rainbow smelt and 0+ yellow perch) but not for older and larger fish at higher trophic levels (walleye). Attempts to account for previous exposure and retention through a biokinetics approach had a similar effect on steady state, upstream and non-steady state, downstream populations of walleye, but were ineffective in explaining the more or less constant deviation between fish with steady state exposures and non-steady state exposures of about 2-fold for all age classes of walleye. These results suggest that for large, piscivorous fish, repeated exposure to short duration, pulse releases leads to much higher (137)Cs BAFs than expected from (133)Cs BAFs for the same fish or (137)Cs BAFs for similar populations in the same system not impacted by reactor releases. These results suggest that the steady state approach should be used with caution in any

  13. Meta-analysis a structural equation modeling approach

    CERN Document Server

    Cheung, Mike W-L

    2015-01-01

    Presents a novel approach to conducting meta-analysis using structural equation modeling. Structural equation modeling (SEM) and meta-analysis are two powerful statistical methods in the educational, social, behavioral, and medical sciences. They are often treated as two unrelated topics in the literature. This book presents a unified framework on analyzing meta-analytic data within the SEM framework, and illustrates how to conduct meta-analysis using the metaSEM package in the R statistical environment. Meta-Analysis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach begins by introducing the impo

  14. A study of multidimensional modeling approaches for data warehouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Sharmila Mat; Sidi, Fatimah; Ibrahim, Hamidah; Affendey, Lilly Suriani

    2016-08-01

    Data warehouse system is used to support the process of organizational decision making. Hence, the system must extract and integrate information from heterogeneous data sources in order to uncover relevant knowledge suitable for decision making process. However, the development of data warehouse is a difficult and complex process especially in its conceptual design (multidimensional modeling). Thus, there have been various approaches proposed to overcome the difficulty. This study surveys and compares the approaches of multidimensional modeling and highlights the issues, trend and solution proposed to date. The contribution is on the state of the art of the multidimensional modeling design.

  15. Numerical linked-cluster approach to quantum lattice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigol, Marcos; Bryant, Tyler; Singh, Rajiv R P

    2006-11-03

    We present a novel algorithm that allows one to obtain temperature dependent properties of quantum lattice models in the thermodynamic limit from exact diagonalization of small clusters. Our numerical linked-cluster approach provides a systematic framework to assess finite-size effects and is valid for any quantum lattice model. Unlike high temperature expansions, which have a finite radius of convergence in inverse temperature, these calculations are accurate at all temperatures provided the range of correlations is finite. We illustrate the power of our approach studying spin models on kagomé, triangular, and square lattices.

  16. Implications of genome wide association studies for addiction: are our a priori assumptions all wrong?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, F Scott; Drgonova, Jana; Jain, Siddharth; Uhl, George R

    2013-12-01

    Substantial genetic contributions to addiction vulnerability are supported by data from twin studies, linkage studies, candidate gene association studies and, more recently, Genome Wide Association Studies (GWAS). Parallel to this work, animal studies have attempted to identify the genes that may contribute to responses to addictive drugs and addiction liability, initially focusing upon genes for the targets of the major drugs of abuse. These studies identified genes/proteins that affect responses to drugs of abuse; however, this does not necessarily mean that variation in these genes contributes to the genetic component of addiction liability. One of the major problems with initial linkage and candidate gene studies was an a priori focus on the genes thought to be involved in addiction based upon the known contributions of those proteins to drug actions, making the identification of novel genes unlikely. The GWAS approach is systematic and agnostic to such a priori assumptions. From the numerous GWAS now completed several conclusions may be drawn: (1) addiction is highly polygenic; each allelic variant contributing in a small, additive fashion to addiction vulnerability; (2) unexpected, compared to our a priori assumptions, classes of genes are most important in explaining addiction vulnerability; (3) although substantial genetic heterogeneity exists, there is substantial convergence of GWAS signals on particular genes. This review traces the history of this research; from initial transgenic mouse models based upon candidate gene and linkage studies, through the progression of GWAS for addiction and nicotine cessation, to the current human and transgenic mouse studies post-GWAS. © 2013.

  17. Metamodelling Approach and Software Tools for Physical Modelling and Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitaliy Mezhuyev

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In computer science, metamodelling approach becomes more and more popular for the purpose of software systems development. In this paper, we discuss applicability of the metamodelling approach for development of software tools for physical modelling and simulation.To define a metamodel for physical modelling the analysis of physical models will be done. The result of such the analyses will show the invariant physical structures, we propose to use as the basic abstractions of the physical metamodel. It is a system of geometrical objects, allowing to build a spatial structure of physical models and to set a distribution of physical properties. For such geometry of distributed physical properties, the different mathematical methods can be applied. To prove the proposed metamodelling approach, we consider the developed prototypes of software tools.

  18. Learning the Task Management Space of an Aircraft Approach Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krall, Joseph; Menzies, Tim; Davies, Misty

    2014-01-01

    Validating models of airspace operations is a particular challenge. These models are often aimed at finding and exploring safety violations, and aim to be accurate representations of real-world behavior. However, the rules governing the behavior are quite complex: nonlinear physics, operational modes, human behavior, and stochastic environmental concerns all determine the responses of the system. In this paper, we present a study on aircraft runway approaches as modeled in Georgia Tech's Work Models that Compute (WMC) simulation. We use a new learner, Genetic-Active Learning for Search-Based Software Engineering (GALE) to discover the Pareto frontiers defined by cognitive structures. These cognitive structures organize the prioritization and assignment of tasks of each pilot during approaches. We discuss the benefits of our approach, and also discuss future work necessary to enable uncertainty quantification.

  19. An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

    2015-03-01

    This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

  20. Modeling Approaches and Systems Related to Structured Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-02-01

    Lasdon 򒾂> and Maturana 򒾃> for surveys of several modern systems. A -6- N NN- %0 CAMPS (Lucas and Mitra 򒾁>) -- Computer Assisted Mathe- %l...583-589. MATURANA , S. 򒾃>. "Comparative Analysis of Mathematical Modeling Systems," informal note, Graduate School of Manage- ment, UCLA, February

  1. Coupled sulfur isotopic and chemical mass transfer modeling: Approach and application to dynamic hydrothermal processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janecky, D.R.

    1988-01-01

    A computational modeling code (EQPSreverse arrowS) has been developed to examine sulfur isotopic distribution pathways coupled with calculations of chemical mass transfer pathways. A post processor approach to EQ6 calculations was chosen so that a variety of isotopic pathways could be examined for each reaction pathway. Two types of major bounding conditions were implemented: (1) equilibrium isotopic exchange between sulfate and sulfide species or exchange only accompanying chemical reduction and oxidation events, and (2) existence or lack of isotopic exchange between solution species and precipitated minerals, parallel to the open and closed chemical system formulations of chemical mass transfer modeling codes. All of the chemical data necessary to explicitly calculate isotopic distribution pathways is generated by most mass transfer modeling codes and can be input to the EQPS code. Routines are built in to directly handle EQ6 tabular files. Chemical reaction models of seafloor hydrothermal vent processes and accompanying sulfur isotopic distribution pathways illustrate the capabilities of coupling EQPSreverse arrowS with EQ6 calculations, including the extent of differences that can exist due to the isotopic bounding condition assumptions described above. 11 refs., 2 figs

  2. Electronic Cigarettes and Indoor Air Quality: A Simple Approach to Modeling Potential Bystander Exposures to Nicotine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Colard

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available There has been rapid growth in the use of electronic cigarettes (“vaping” in Europe, North America and elsewhere. With such increased prevalence, there is currently a debate on whether the aerosol exhaled following the use of e-cigarettes has implications for the quality of air breathed by bystanders. Conducting chemical analysis of the indoor environment can be costly and resource intensive, limiting the number of studies which can be conducted. However, this can be modelled reasonably accurately based on empirical emissions data and using some basic assumptions. Here, we present a simplified model, based on physical principles, which considers aerosol propagation, dilution and extraction to determine the potential contribution of a single puff from an e-cigarette to indoor air. From this, it was then possible to simulate the cumulative effect of vaping over time. The model was applied to a virtual, but plausible, scenario considering an e-cigarette user and a non-user working in the same office space. The model was also used to reproduce published experimental studies and showed good agreement with the published values of indoor air nicotine concentration. With some additional refinements, such an approach may be a cost-effective and rapid way of assessing the potential exposure of bystanders to exhaled e-cigarette aerosol constituents.

  3. Soil moisture simulations using two different modelling approaches

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šípek, Václav; Tesař, Miroslav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 64, 3-4 (2013), s. 99-103 ISSN 0006-5471 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA300600901; GA ČR GA205/08/1174 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : soil moisture modelling * SWIM model * box modelling approach Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology http://www.boku.ac.at/diebodenkultur/volltexte/sondernummern/band-64/heft-3-4/sipek.pdf

  4. Approaches to surface complexation modeling of Uranium(VI) adsorption on aquifer sediments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J.A.; Meece, D.E.; Kohler, M.; Curtis, G.P.

    2004-01-01

    Uranium(VI) adsorption onto aquifer sediments was studied in batch experiments as a function of pH and U(VI) and dissolved carbonate concentrations in artificial groundwater solutions. The sediments were collected from an alluvial aquifer at a location upgradient of contamination from a former uranium mill operation at Naturita, Colorado (USA). The ranges of aqueous chemical conditions used in the U(VI) adsorption experiments (pH 6.9 to 7.9; U(VI) concentration 2.5 ?? 10-8 to 1 ?? 10-5 M; partial pressure of carbon dioxide gas 0.05 to 6.8%) were based on the spatial variation in chemical conditions observed in 1999-2000 in the Naturita alluvial aquifer. The major minerals in the sediments were quartz, feldspars, and calcite, with minor amounts of magnetite and clay minerals. Quartz grains commonly exhibited coatings that were greater than 10 nm in thickness and composed of an illite-smectite clay with occluded ferrihydrite and goethite nanoparticles. Chemical extractions of quartz grains removed from the sediments were used to estimate the masses of iron and aluminum present in the coatings. Various surface complexation modeling approaches were compared in terms of the ability to describe the U(VI) experimental data and the data requirements for model application to the sediments. Published models for U(VI) adsorption on reference minerals were applied to predict U(VI) adsorption based on assumptions about the sediment surface composition and physical properties (e.g., surface area and electrical double layer). Predictions from these models were highly variable, with results overpredicting or underpredicting the experimental data, depending on the assumptions used to apply the model. Although the models for reference minerals are supported by detailed experimental studies (and in ideal cases, surface spectroscopy), the results suggest that errors are caused in applying the models directly to the sediments by uncertain knowledge of: 1) the proportion and types of

  5. DDH-like Assumptions Based on Extension Rings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cramer, Ronald; Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Kiltz, Eike

    2011-01-01

    We introduce and study a new type of DDH-like assumptions based on groups of prime order q. Whereas standard DDH is based on encoding elements of F_{q} ``in the exponent'' of elements in the group, we ask what happens if instead we put in the exponent elements of the extension ring R_f= \\F...... DDH, is easy in bilinear groups. This motivates our suggestion of a different type of assumption, the d-vector DDH problems (VDDH), which are based on f(X)= X^d, but with a twist to avoid the problems with reducible polynomials. We show in the generic group model that VDDH is hard in bilinear groups...... and that in fact the problems become harder with increasing d and hence form an infinite hierarchy. We show that hardness of VDDH implies CCA-secure encryption, efficient Naor-Reingold style pseudorandom functions, and auxiliary input secure encryption, a strong form of leakage resilience. This can be seen...

  6. DDH-Like Assumptions Based on Extension Rings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cramer, Ronald; Damgård, Ivan Bjerre; Kiltz, Eike

    2012-01-01

    and security proof but get better security and moreover, the amortized complexity (e.g, computation per encrypted bit) is the same as when using DDH. We also show that d-DDH, just like DDH, is easy in bilinear groups. We therefore suggest a different type of assumption, the d-vector DDH problems (d......We introduce and study a new type of DDH-like assumptions based on groups of prime order q. Whereas standard DDH is based on encoding elements of $\\mathbb{F}_{q}$ “in the exponent” of elements in the group, we ask what happens if instead we put in the exponent elements of the extension ring $R......-VDDH), which are based on f(X) = Xd, but with a twist to avoid problems with reducible polynomials. We show in the generic group model that d-VDDH is hard in bilinear groups and that the problems become harder with increasing d. We show that hardness of d-VDDH implies CCA-secure encryption, efficient Naor...

  7. Strategy for a Rock Mechanics Site Descriptive Model. Development and testing of the theoretical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, Isabelle; Fredriksson, Anders; Outters, Nils [Golder Associates AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

    2002-05-01

    In the purpose of studying the possibilities of a Deep Repository for spent fuel, the Swedish Nuclear and Fuel Management Company (SKB) is currently planning for Site Investigations. Data collected from these Site Investigations are interpreted and analysed to achieve the full Site Description, which is built up of models from all the disciplines that are considered of importance for the Site Description. One of these models is the Rock Mechanical Descriptive Model,which would be developed for any site in hard crystalline rock, and is a combination and evaluation of the characterisation of rock mass by means of empirical relationships and a theoretical approach based on numerical modelling. The present report describes the theoretical approach. The characterisation of the mechanical properties of the rock mass, viewed as a unit consisting of intact rock and fractures, is achieved by numerical simulations with following input parameters: initial stresses, fracture geometry, distribution of rock mechanical properties, such as deformation and strength parameters, for the intact rock and for the fractures. The numerical modelling was performed with the two-dimensional code UDEC, and the rock block models were generated from 2D trace sections extracted from the 3D Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) model. Assumptions and uncertainties related to the set-up of the model are considered. The numerical model was set-up to simulate a plain strain-loading test. Different boundary conditions were applied on the model for simulating stress conditions (I) in the undisturbed rock mass, and (II) at the proximity of a tunnel. In order to assess the reliability of the model sensitivity analyses have been conducted on some rock block models for defining the dependency of mechanical properties to in situ stresses, the influence of boundary conditions, rock material and joint constitutive models used to simulate the behaviour of intact rock and fractures, domain size and anisotropy. To

  8. A generic approach to haptic modeling of textile artifacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shidanshidi, H.; Naghdy, F.; Naghdy, G.; Wood Conroy, D.

    2009-08-01

    Haptic Modeling of textile has attracted significant interest over the last decade. In spite of extensive research, no generic system has been proposed. The previous work mainly assumes that textile has a 2D planar structure. They also require time-consuming measurement of textile properties in construction of the mechanical model. A novel approach for haptic modeling of textile is proposed to overcome the existing shortcomings. The method is generic, assumes a 3D structure for the textile, and deploys computational intelligence to estimate the mechanical properties of textile. The approach is designed primarily for display of textile artifacts in museums. The haptic model is constructed by superimposing the mechanical model of textile over its geometrical model. Digital image processing is applied to the still image of textile to identify its pattern and structure through a fuzzy rule-base algorithm. The 3D geometric model of the artifact is automatically generated in VRML based on the identified pattern and structure obtained from the textile image. Selected mechanical properties of the textile are estimated by an artificial neural network; deploying the textile geometric characteristics and yarn properties as inputs. The estimated mechanical properties are then deployed in the construction of the textile mechanical model. The proposed system is introduced and the developed algorithms are described. The validation of method indicates the feasibility of the approach and its superiority to other haptic modeling algorithms.

  9. Multiple Linear Regressions by Maximizing the Likelihood under Assumption of Generalized Gauss-Laplace Distribution of the Error.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jäntschi, Lorentz; Bálint, Donatella; Bolboacă, Sorana D

    2016-01-01

    Multiple linear regression analysis is widely used to link an outcome with predictors for better understanding of the behaviour of the outcome of interest. Usually, under the assumption that the errors follow a normal distribution, the coefficients of the model are estimated by minimizing the sum of squared deviations. A new approach based on maximum likelihood estimation is proposed for finding the coefficients on linear models with two predictors without any constrictive assumptions on the distribution of the errors. The algorithm was developed, implemented, and tested as proof-of-concept using fourteen sets of compounds by investigating the link between activity/property (as outcome) and structural feature information incorporated by molecular descriptors (as predictors). The results on real data demonstrated that in all investigated cases the power of the error is significantly different by the convenient value of two when the Gauss-Laplace distribution was used to relax the constrictive assumption of the normal distribution of the error. Therefore, the Gauss-Laplace distribution of the error could not be rejected while the hypothesis that the power of the error from Gauss-Laplace distribution is normal distributed also failed to be rejected.

  10. Gauging Through the Crowd: A Crowd-Sourcing Approach to Urban Rainfall Measurement and Storm Water Modeling Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Pan; Ng, Tze Ling

    2017-11-01

    Accurate rainfall measurement at high spatial and temporal resolutions is critical for the modeling and management of urban storm water. In this study, we conduct computer simulation experiments to test the potential of a crowd-sourcing approach, where smartphones, surveillance cameras, and other devices act as precipitation sensors, as an alternative to the traditional approach of using rain gauges to monitor urban rainfall. The crowd-sourcing approach is promising as it has the potential to provide high-density measurements, albeit with relatively large individual errors. We explore the potential of this approach for urban rainfall monitoring and the subsequent implications for storm water modeling through a series of simulation experiments involving synthetically generated crowd-sourced rainfall data and a storm water model. The results show that even under conservative assumptions, crowd-sourced rainfall data lead to more accurate modeling of storm water flows as compared to rain gauge data. We observe the relative superiority of the crowd-sourcing approach to vary depending on crowd participation rate, measurement accuracy, drainage area, choice of performance statistic, and crowd-sourced observation type. A possible reason for our findings is the differences between the error structures of crowd-sourced and rain gauge rainfall fields resulting from the differences between the errors and densities of the raw measurement data underlying the two field types.

  11. A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rubin, Ofir D.; Babcock, Bruce A.

    2011-01-01

    The theoretical framework developed in this study allows development of a model of deregulated electricity markets that explains two familiar empirical findings; the existence of forward premiums and price-cost markups in the spot market. This is a significant contribution because electricity forward premiums have been previously explained exclusively by the assumptions of perfect competition and risk-averse behavior while spot markups are generally the outcome of a body of literature assuming oligopolistic competition. Our theoretical framework indicates that a certain premium for forward contracting is required for efficient allocation of generation capacity. However, due to the uniqueness of electricity and the design of deregulated electricity markets this premium might be substantially higher than its optimal level. - Research highlights: → The state of knowledge regarding modeling electricity markets is incomplete. → Electricity forward premiums are not necessarily driven by risk aversion. → Efficiency in production requires a certain premium for forward contracting. → It is likely that market premiums are substantially higher than their optimal level. → Policy regulation should not seek to eliminate forward premium entirely.

  12. An approach for modeling sediment budgets in supply-limited rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Scott A.; Topping, David J.; Rubin, David M.; Melis, Theodore S.

    2010-01-01

    Reliable predictions of sediment transport and river morphology in response to variations in natural and human-induced drivers are necessary for river engineering and management. Because engineering and management applications may span a wide range of space and time scales, a broad spectrum of modeling approaches has been developed, ranging from suspended-sediment "rating curves" to complex three-dimensional morphodynamic models. Suspended sediment rating curves are an attractive approach for evaluating changes in multi-year sediment budgets resulting from changes in flow regimes because they are simple to implement, computationally efficient, and the empirical parameters can be estimated from quantities that are commonly measured in the field (i.e., suspended sediment concentration and water discharge). However, the standard rating curve approach assumes a unique suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. This assumption is not valid in rivers where sediment supply varies enough to cause changes in particle size or changes in areal coverage of sediment on the bed; both of these changes cause variations in suspended sediment concentration for a given water discharge. More complex numerical models of hydraulics and morphodynamics have been developed to address such physical changes of the bed. This additional complexity comes at a cost in terms of computations as well as the type and amount of data required for model setup, calibration, and testing. Moreover, application of the resulting sediment-transport models may require observations of bed-sediment boundary conditions that require extensive (and expensive) observations or, alternatively, require the use of an additional model (subject to its own errors) merely to predict the bed-sediment boundary conditions for use by the transport model. In this paper we present a hybrid approach that combines aspects of the rating curve method and the more complex morphodynamic models. Our primary objective

  13. Assessing framing assumptions in quantitative health impact assessments: a housing intervention example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesa-Frias, Marco; Chalabi, Zaid; Foss, Anna M

    2013-09-01

    Health impact assessment (HIA) is often used to determine ex ante the health impact of an environmental policy or an environmental intervention. Underpinning any HIA is the framing assumption, which defines the causal pathways mapping environmental exposures to health outcomes. The sensitivity of the HIA to the framing assumptions is often ignored. A novel method based on fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is developed to quantify the framing assumptions in the assessment stage of a HIA, and is then applied to a housing intervention (tightening insulation) as a case-study. Framing assumptions of the case-study were identified through a literature search of Ovid Medline (1948-2011). The FCM approach was used to identify the key variables that have the most influence in a HIA. Changes in air-tightness, ventilation, indoor air quality and mould/humidity have been identified as having the most influence on health. The FCM approach is widely applicable and can be used to inform the formulation of the framing assumptions in any quantitative HIA of environmental interventions. We argue that it is necessary to explore and quantify framing assumptions prior to conducting a detailed quantitative HIA during the assessment stage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Wave Resource Characterization Using an Unstructured Grid Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Cheng Wu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a modeling study conducted on the central Oregon coast for wave resource characterization, using the unstructured grid Simulating WAve Nearshore (SWAN model coupled with a nested grid WAVEWATCH III® (WWIII model. The flexibility of models with various spatial resolutions and the effects of open boundary conditions simulated by a nested grid WWIII model with different physics packages were evaluated. The model results demonstrate the advantage of the unstructured grid-modeling approach for flexible model resolution and good model skills in simulating the six wave resource parameters recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission in comparison to the observed data in Year 2009 at National Data Buoy Center Buoy 46050. Notably, spectral analysis indicates that the ST4 physics package improves upon the ST2 physics package’s ability to predict wave power density for large waves, which is important for wave resource assessment, load calculation of devices, and risk management. In addition, bivariate distributions show that the simulated sea state of maximum occurrence with the ST4 physics package matched the observed data better than with the ST2 physics package. This study demonstrated that the unstructured grid wave modeling approach, driven by regional nested grid WWIII outputs along with the ST4 physics package, can efficiently provide accurate wave hindcasts to support wave resource characterization. Our study also suggests that wind effects need to be considered if the dimension of the model domain is greater than approximately 100 km, or O (102 km.

  15. Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Naser, Arab

    2012-01-01

    Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning. This book also: Comprehensively discusses the application of mathematical models for evacuation and intelligent transportation modeling Covers advanced methodologies in evacuation modeling and planning Discusses principles a...

  16. Public key cryptography from weaker assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zottarel, Angela

    in the case the adversary is granted access to partial information about the secret state of the primitive. To do so, we work in an extension of the standard black-box model, a new framework where possible leakage from the secret state is taken into account. In particular, we give the first construction......This dissertation is focused on the construction of public key cryptographic primitives and on the relative security analysis in a meaningful theoretic model. This work takes two orthogonal directions. In the first part, we study cryptographic constructions preserving their security properties also...... of signature schemes in a very general leakage model known as auxiliary input. We also study how leakage influences the notion of simulation-based security, comparing leakage tolerance to adaptive security in the UC-framework. In the second part of this dissertation, we turn our attention to hardness...

  17. Breakdown of Hydrostatic Assumption in Tidal Channel with Scour Holes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunyan Li

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Hydrostatic condition is a common assumption in tidal and subtidal motions in oceans and estuaries.. Theories with this assumption have been largely successful. However, there is no definite criteria separating the hydrostatic from the non-hydrostatic regimes in real applications because real problems often times have multiple scales. With increased refinement of high resolution numerical models encompassing smaller and smaller spatial scales, the need for non-hydrostatic models is increasing. To evaluate the vertical motion over bathymetric changes in tidal channels and assess the validity of the hydrostatic approximation, we conducted observations using a vessel-based acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP. Observations were made along a straight channel 18 times over two scour holes of 25 m deep, separated by 330 m, in and out of an otherwise flat 8 m deep tidal pass leading to the Lake Pontchartrain over a time period of 8 hours covering part of the diurnal tidal cycle. Out of the 18 passages over the scour holes, 11 of them showed strong upwelling and downwelling which resulted in the breakdown of hydrostatic condition. The maximum observed vertical velocity was ~ 0.35 m/s, a high value in a tidal channel, and the estimated vertical acceleration reached a high value of 1.76×10-2 m/s2. Analysis demonstrated that the barotropic non-hydrostatic acceleration was dominant. The cause of the non-hydrostatic flow was the that over steep slopes. This demonstrates that in such a system, the bathymetric variation can lead to the breakdown of hydrostatic conditions. Models with hydrostatic restrictions will not be able to correctly capture the dynamics in such a system with significant bathymetric variations particularly during strong tidal currents.

  18. A review of function modeling: Approaches and applications

    OpenAIRE

    Erden, M.S.; Komoto, H.; Van Beek, T.J.; D'Amelio, V.; Echavarria, E.; Tomiyama, T.

    2008-01-01

    This work is aimed at establishing a common frame and understanding of function modeling (FM) for our ongoing research activities. A comparative review of the literature is performed to grasp the various FM approaches with their commonalities and differences. The relations of FM with the research fields of artificial intelligence, design theory, and maintenance are discussed. In this discussion the goals are to highlight the features of various classical approaches in relation to FM, to delin...

  19. Loss Modeling with a Data-Driven Approach in Event-Based Rainfall-Runoff Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, L. H. C.

    2012-04-01

    Mathematical models require the estimation of rainfall abstractions for accurate predictions of runoff. Although loss models such as the constant loss and exponential loss models are commonly used, these methods are based on simplified assumptions of the physical process. A new approach based on the data driven paradigm to estimate rainfall abstractions is proposed in this paper. The proposed data driven model, based on the artificial neural network (ANN) does not make any assumptions on the loss behavior. The estimated discharge from a physically-based model, obtained from the kinematic wave (KW) model assuming zero losses, was used as the only input to the ANN. The output is the measured discharge. Thus, the ANN functions as a black-box loss model. Two sets of data were analyzed for this study. The first dataset consists of rainfall and runoff data, measured from an artificial catchment (area = 25 m2) comprising two overland planes (slope = 11%), 25m long, transversely inclined towards a rectangular channel (slope = 2%) which conveyed the flow, recorded using calibrated weigh tanks, to the outlet. Two rain gauges, each placed 6.25 m from either ends of the channel, were used to record rainfall. Data for six storm events over the period between October 2002 and December 2002 were analyzed. The second dataset was obtained from the Upper Bukit Timah catchment (area = 6.4 km2) instrumented with two rain gauges and a flow measuring station. A total of six events recorded between November 1987 and July 1988 were selected for this study. The runoff predicted by the ANN was compared with the measured runoff. In addition, results from KW models developed for both the catchments were used as a benchmark. The KW models were calibrated assuming the loss rate for an average event for each of the datasets. The results from both the ANN and KW models agreed well with the runoff measured from the artificial catchment. The KW model is expected to perform well since the catchment

  20. A model-data based systems approach to process intensification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    . Their developments, however, are largely due to experiment based trial and error approaches and while they do not require validation, they can be time consuming and resource intensive. Also, one may ask, can a truly new intensified unit operation be obtained in this way? An alternative two-stage approach is to apply...... a model-based synthesis method to systematically generate and evaluate alternatives in the first stage and an experiment-model based validation in the second stage. In this way, the search for alternatives is done very quickly, reliably and systematically over a wide range, while resources are preserved...... for focused validation of only the promising candidates in the second-stage. This approach, however, would be limited to intensification based on “known” unit operations, unless the PI process synthesis/design is considered at a lower level of aggregation, namely the phenomena level. That is, the model-based...

  1. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR MODELING THE RURAL SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorbenkova Elena Vladimirovna

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Subject: the paper describes the research results on validation of a rural settlement developmental model. The basic methods and approaches for solving the problem of assessment of the urban and rural settlement development efficiency are considered. Research objectives: determination of methodological approaches to modeling and creating a model for the development of rural settlements. Materials and methods: domestic and foreign experience in modeling the territorial development of urban and rural settlements and settlement structures was generalized. The motivation for using the Pentagon-model for solving similar problems was demonstrated. Based on a systematic analysis of existing development models of urban and rural settlements as well as the authors-developed method for assessing the level of agro-towns development, the systems/factors that are necessary for a rural settlement sustainable development are identified. Results: we created the rural development model which consists of five major systems that include critical factors essential for achieving a sustainable development of a settlement system: ecological system, economic system, administrative system, anthropogenic (physical system and social system (supra-structure. The methodological approaches for creating an evaluation model of rural settlements development were revealed; the basic motivating factors that provide interrelations of systems were determined; the critical factors for each subsystem were identified and substantiated. Such an approach was justified by the composition of tasks for territorial planning of the local and state administration levels. The feasibility of applying the basic Pentagon-model, which was successfully used for solving the analogous problems of sustainable development, was shown. Conclusions: the resulting model can be used for identifying and substantiating the critical factors for rural sustainable development and also become the basis of

  2. An algebraic approach to modeling in software engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loegel, C.J.; Ravishankar, C.V.

    1993-09-01

    Our work couples the formalism of universal algebras with the engineering techniques of mathematical modeling to develop a new approach to the software engineering process. Our purpose in using this combination is twofold. First, abstract data types and their specification using universal algebras can be considered a common point between the practical requirements of software engineering and the formal specification of software systems. Second, mathematical modeling principles provide us with a means for effectively analyzing real-world systems. We first use modeling techniques to analyze a system and then represent the analysis using universal algebras. The rest of the software engineering process exploits properties of universal algebras that preserve the structure of our original model. This paper describes our software engineering process and our experience using it on both research and commercial systems. We need a new approach because current software engineering practices often deliver software that is difficult to develop and maintain. Formal software engineering approaches use universal algebras to describe ''computer science'' objects like abstract data types, but in practice software errors are often caused because ''real-world'' objects are improperly modeled. There is a large semantic gap between the customer's objects and abstract data types. In contrast, mathematical modeling uses engineering techniques to construct valid models for real-world systems, but these models are often implemented in an ad hoc manner. A combination of the best features of both approaches would enable software engineering to formally specify and develop software systems that better model real systems. Software engineering, like mathematical modeling, should concern itself first and foremost with understanding a real system and its behavior under given circumstances, and then with expressing this knowledge in an executable form

  3. Measuring sound absorption using local field assumptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuipers, E.R.

    2013-01-01

    To more effectively apply acoustically absorbing materials, it is desirable to measure angle-dependent sound absorption coefficients, preferably in situ. Existing measurement methods are based on an overall model of the acoustic field in front of the absorber, and are therefore sensitive to

  4. Joint Modeling of Multiple Crimes: A Bayesian Spatial Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A multivariate Bayesian spatial modeling approach was used to jointly model the counts of two types of crime, i.e., burglary and non-motor vehicle theft, and explore the geographic pattern of crime risks and relevant risk factors. In contrast to the univariate model, which assumes independence across outcomes, the multivariate approach takes into account potential correlations between crimes. Six independent variables are included in the model as potential risk factors. In order to fully present this method, both the multivariate model and its univariate counterpart are examined. We fitted the two models to the data and assessed them using the deviance information criterion. A comparison of the results from the two models indicates that the multivariate model was superior to the univariate model. Our results show that population density and bar density are clearly associated with both burglary and non-motor vehicle theft risks and indicate a close relationship between these two types of crime. The posterior means and 2.5% percentile of type-specific crime risks estimated by the multivariate model were mapped to uncover the geographic patterns. The implications, limitations and future work of the study are discussed in the concluding section.

  5. Injury prevention risk communication: A mental models approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Austin, Laurel Cecelia; Fischhoff, Baruch

    2012-01-01

    Individuals' decisions and behaviour can play a critical role in determining both the probability and severity of injury. Behavioural decision research studies peoples' decision-making processes in terms comparable to scientific models of optimal choices, providing a basis for focusing...... interventions on the most critical opportunities to reduce risks. That research often seeks to identify the ‘mental models’ that underlie individuals' interpretations of their circumstances and the outcomes of possible actions. In the context of injury prevention, a mental models approach would ask why people...... and uses examples to discuss how the approach can be used to develop scientifically validated context-sensitive injury risk communications....

  6. Assessing risk factors for dental caries: a statistical modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trottini, Mario; Bossù, Maurizio; Corridore, Denise; Ierardo, Gaetano; Luzzi, Valeria; Saccucci, Matteo; Polimeni, Antonella

    2015-01-01

    The problem of identifying potential determinants and predictors of dental caries is of key importance in caries research and it has received considerable attention in the scientific literature. From the methodological side, a broad range of statistical models is currently available to analyze dental caries indices (DMFT, dmfs, etc.). These models have been applied in several studies to investigate the impact of different risk factors on the cumulative severity of dental caries experience. However, in most of the cases (i) these studies focus on a very specific subset of risk factors; and (ii) in the statistical modeling only few candidate models are considered and model selection is at best only marginally addressed. As a result, our understanding of the robustness of the statistical inferences with respect to the choice of the model is very limited; the richness of the set of statistical models available for analysis in only marginally exploited; and inferences could be biased due the omission of potentially important confounding variables in the model's specification. In this paper we argue that these limitations can be overcome considering a general class of candidate models and carefully exploring the model space using standard model selection criteria and measures of global fit and predictive performance of the candidate models. Strengths and limitations of the proposed approach are illustrated with a real data set. In our illustration the model space contains more than 2.6 million models, which require inferences to be adjusted for 'optimism'.

  7. A modeling approach to hospital location for effective marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cokelez, S; Peacock, E

    1993-01-01

    This paper develops a mixed integer linear programming model for locating health care facilities. The parameters of the objective function of this model are based on factor rating analysis and grid method. Subjective and objective factors representative of the real life situations are incorporated into the model in a unique way permitting a trade-off analysis of certain factors pertinent to the location of hospitals. This results in a unified approach and a single model whose credibility is further enhanced by inclusion of geographical and demographical factors.

  8. Mathematical and computer modeling of electro-optic systems using a generic modeling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, M.I.; Murray-Smith, D.J.; Hickman, D.

    2007-01-01

    The conventional approach to modelling electro-optic sensor systems is to develop separate models for individual systems or classes of system, depending on the detector technology employed in the sensor and the application. However, this ignores commonality in design and in components of these systems. A generic approach is presented for modelling a variety of sensor systems operating in the infrared waveband that also allows systems to be modelled with different levels of detail and at diffe...

  9. Deep Appearance Models: A Deep Boltzmann Machine Approach for Face Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Duong, Chi Nhan; Luu, Khoa; Quach, Kha Gia; Bui, Tien D.

    2016-01-01

    The "interpretation through synthesis" approach to analyze face images, particularly Active Appearance Models (AAMs) method, has become one of the most successful face modeling approaches over the last two decades. AAM models have ability to represent face images through synthesis using a controllable parameterized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model. However, the accuracy and robustness of the synthesized faces of AAM are highly depended on the training sets and inherently on the genera...

  10. Leakage-Resilient Circuits without Computational Assumptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dziembowski, Stefan; Faust, Sebastian

    2012-01-01

    Physical cryptographic devices inadvertently leak information through numerous side-channels. Such leakage is exploited by so-called side-channel attacks, which often allow for a complete security breache. A recent trend in cryptography is to propose formal models to incorporate leakage...... into the model and to construct schemes that are provably secure within them. We design a general compiler that transforms any cryptographic scheme, e.g., a block-cipher, into a functionally equivalent scheme which is resilient to any continual leakage provided that the following three requirements are satisfied......: (i) in each observation the leakage is bounded, (ii) different parts of the computation leak independently, and (iii) the randomness that is used for certain operations comes from a simple (non-uniform) distribution. In contrast to earlier work on leakage resilient circuit compilers, which relied...

  11. Comparison of Cox and Gray's survival models in severe sepsis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasal, Jan; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; Clermont, Gilles

    2004-01-01

    Although survival is traditionally modeled using Cox proportional hazards modeling, this approach may be inappropriate in sepsis, in which the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Newer, more flexible models, such as Gray's model, may be more appropriate.......Although survival is traditionally modeled using Cox proportional hazards modeling, this approach may be inappropriate in sepsis, in which the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Newer, more flexible models, such as Gray's model, may be more appropriate....

  12. Modelo Century de dinâmica da matéria orgânica do solo: equações e pressupostos Century model of soil organic matter dynamics: equations and assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Fernando Carvalho Leite

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available A modelagem de processos biológicos tem por objetivos o planejamento do uso da terra, o estabelecimento de padrões ambientais e as estimativas dos riscos reais e potenciais das atividades agrícolas e ambientais. Diversos modelos têm sido criados nos últimos 25 anos. Century é um modelo mecanístico que analisa em longo prazo a dinâmica da matéria orgânica do solo e de nutrientes no sistema solo-planta em diversos agroecossistemas. O submodelo de matéria orgânica do solo possui os compartimentos ativo (biomassa microbiana e produtos, lento (produtos microbianos e vegetais, fisicamente protegidos ou biologicamente resistentes à decomposição e passivo (quimicamente recalcitrante ou também fisicamente protegido com diferentes taxas de decomposição. Equações de primeira ordem são usadas para modelar todos os compartimentos da matéria orgânica do solo e a temperatura e umidade do solo modificam as taxas de decomposição. A reciclagem do compartimento ativo e a formação do passivo são controladas pelo teor de areia e de argila do solo, respectivamente. Os resíduos vegetais são divididos em compartimentos dependentes dos teores de lignina e nitrogênio. Por meio do modelo, pode-se relacionar matéria orgânica aos níveis de fertilidade e ao manejo atual e futuro, otimizando o entendimento das transformações dos nutrientes em solos de diversos agroecossistemas.The modeling of biological processes has as objectives the planning of land use, setting environmental standards and estimating the actual and potential risks of the agricultural and environmental activities. Several models have been created in the last 25 years. Century is a mechanistic model that analyzes in long-term the dynamics of soil organic matter and of nutrients in soil-plant system in several agroecosystems. The soil organic matter submodel has the active (microbial biomass and products, slow (plant and microbial products that are physically protected or

  13. Earthquake response analysis of RC bridges using simplified modeling approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Do Hyung; Kim, Dookie; Park, Taehyo

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, simplified modeling approaches describing the hysteretic behavior of reinforced concrete bridge piers are proposed. For this purpose, flexure-axial and shear-axial interaction models are developed and implemented into a nonlinear finite element analysis program. Comparative verifications for reinforced concrete columns prove that the analytical predictions obtained with the new formulations show good correlation with experimental results under various levels of axial forces and section types. In addition, analytical correlation studies for the inelastic earthquake response of reinforced concrete bridge structures are also carried out using the simplified modeling approaches. Relatively good agreement is observed in the results between the current modeling approach and the elaborated fiber models. It is thus encouraging that the present developments and approaches are capable of identifying the contribution of deformation mechanisms correctly. Subsequently, the present developments can be used as a simple yet effective tool for the deformation capacity evaluation of reinforced concrete columns in general and reinforced concrete bridge piers in particular.

  14. Experimental assessment of unvalidated assumptions in classical plasticity theory.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brannon, Rebecca Moss (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Burghardt, Jeffrey A. (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Bauer, Stephen J.; Bronowski, David R.

    2009-01-01

    This report investigates the validity of several key assumptions in classical plasticity theory regarding material response to changes in the loading direction. Three metals, two rock types, and one ceramic were subjected to non-standard loading directions, and the resulting strain response increments were displayed in Gudehus diagrams to illustrate the approximation error of classical plasticity theories. A rigorous mathematical framework for fitting classical theories to the data, thus quantifying the error, is provided. Further data analysis techniques are presented that allow testing for the effect of changes in loading direction without having to use a new sample and for inferring the yield normal and flow directions without having to measure the yield surface. Though the data are inconclusive, there is indication that classical, incrementally linear, plasticity theory may be inadequate over a certain range of loading directions. This range of loading directions also coincides with loading directions that are known to produce a physically inadmissible instability for any nonassociative plasticity model.

  15. Nonlinear dynamics in work groups with Bion's basic assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Forno, Arianna; Merlone, Ugo

    2013-04-01

    According to several authors Bion's contribution has been a landmark in the thought and conceptualization of the unconscious functioning of human beings in groups. We provide a mathematical model of group behavior in which heterogeneous members may behave as if shared to different degrees what in Bion's theory is a common basic assumption. Our formalization combines both individual characteristics and group dynamics. By this formalization we analyze the group dynamics as the result of the individual dynamics of the members and prove that, under some conditions, each individual reproduces the group dynamics in a different scale. In particular, we provide an example in which the chaotic behavior of the group is reflected in each member.

  16. Assumptions of Customer Knowledge Enablement in the Open Innovation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jokubauskienė Raminta

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In the scientific literature, open innovation is one of the most effective means to innovate and gain a competitive advantage. In practice, there is a variety of open innovation activities, but, nevertheless, customers stand as the cornerstone in this area, since the customers’ knowledge is one of the most important sources of new knowledge and ideas. Evaluating the context where are the interactions of open innovation and customer knowledge enablement, it is necessary to take into account the importance of customer knowledge management. Increasingly it is highlighted that customers’ knowledge management facilitates the creation of innovations. However, it should be an examination of other factors that influence the open innovation, and, at the same time, customers’ knowledge management. This article presents a theoretical model, which reveals the assumptions of open innovation process and the impact on the firm’s performance.

  17. Evaluation of fecal mRNA reproducibility via a marginal transformed mixture modeling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davidson Laurie A

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Developing and evaluating new technology that enables researchers to recover gene-expression levels of colonic cells from fecal samples could be key to a non-invasive screening tool for early detection of colon cancer. The current study, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to investigate and report the reproducibility of fecal microarray data. Using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC as a measure of reproducibility and the preliminary analysis of fecal and mucosal data, we assessed the reliability of mixture density estimation and the reproducibility of fecal microarray data. Using Monte Carlo-based methods, we explored whether ICC values should be modeled as a beta-mixture or transformed first and fitted with a normal-mixture. We used outcomes from bootstrapped goodness-of-fit tests to determine which approach is less sensitive toward potential violation of distributional assumptions. Results The graphical examination of both the distributions of ICC and probit-transformed ICC (PT-ICC clearly shows that there are two components in the distributions. For ICC measurements, which are between 0 and 1, the practice in literature has been to assume that the data points are from a beta-mixture distribution. Nevertheless, in our study we show that the use of a normal-mixture modeling approach on PT-ICC could provide superior performance. Conclusions When modeling ICC values of gene expression levels, using mixture of normals in the probit-transformed (PT scale is less sensitive toward model mis-specification than using mixture of betas. We show that a biased conclusion could be made if we follow the traditional approach and model the two sets of ICC values using the mixture of betas directly. The problematic estimation arises from the sensitivity of beta-mixtures toward model mis-specification, particularly when there are observations in the neighborhood of the the boundary points, 0 or 1. Since beta-mixture modeling

  18. Are Gaussian spectra a viable perceptual assumption in color appearance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizokami, Yoko; Webster, Michael A

    2012-02-01

    Natural illuminant and reflectance spectra can be roughly approximated by a linear model with as few as three basis functions, and this has suggested that the visual system might construct a linear representation of the spectra by estimating the weights of these functions. However, such models do not accommodate nonlinearities in color appearance, such as the Abney effect. Previously, we found that these nonlinearities are qualitatively consistent with a perceptual inference that stimulus spectra are instead roughly Gaussian, with the hue tied to the inferred centroid of the spectrum [J. Vision 6(9), 12 (2006)]. Here, we examined to what extent a Gaussian inference provides a sufficient approximation of natural color signals. Reflectance and illuminant spectra from a wide set of databases were analyzed to test how well the curves could be fit by either a simple Gaussian with three parameters (amplitude, peak wavelength, and standard deviation) versus the first three principal component analysis components of standard linear models. The resulting Gaussian fits were comparable to linear models with the same degrees of freedom, suggesting that the Gaussian model could provide a plausible perceptual assumption about stimulus spectra for a trichromatic visual system. © 2012 Optical Society of America

  19. Bianchi VI0 and III models: self-similar approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belinchon, Jose Antonio

    2009-01-01

    We study several cosmological models with Bianchi VI 0 and III symmetries under the self-similar approach. We find new solutions for the 'classical' perfect fluid model as well as for the vacuum model although they are really restrictive for the equation of state. We also study a perfect fluid model with time-varying constants, G and Λ. As in other studied models we find that the behaviour of G and Λ are related. If G behaves as a growing time function then Λ is a positive decreasing time function but if G is decreasing then Λ 0 is negative. We end by studying a massive cosmic string model, putting special emphasis in calculating the numerical values of the equations of state. We show that there is no SS solution for a string model with time-varying constants.

  20. Modeling and control approach to a distinctive quadrotor helicopter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jun; Peng, Hui; Chen, Qing; Peng, Xiaoyan

    2014-01-01

    The referenced quadrotor helicopter in this paper has a unique configuration. It is more complex than commonly used quadrotors because of its inaccurate parameters, unideal symmetrical structure and unknown nonlinear dynamics. A novel method was presented to handle its modeling and control problems in this paper, which adopts a MIMO RBF neural nets-based state-dependent ARX (RBF-ARX) model to represent its nonlinear dynamics, and then a MIMO RBF-ARX model-based global LQR controller is proposed to stabilize the quadrotor's attitude. By comparing with a physical model-based LQR controller and an ARX model-set-based gain scheduling LQR controller, superiority of the MIMO RBF-ARX model-based control approach was confirmed. This successful application verified the validity of the MIMO RBF-ARX modeling method to the quadrotor helicopter with complex nonlinearity. © 2013 Published by ISA. All rights reserved.

  1. Software sensors based on the grey-box modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carstensen, J.; Harremoës, P.; Strube, Rune

    1996-01-01

    In recent years the grey-box modelling approach has been applied to wastewater transportation and treatment Grey-box models are characterized by the combination of deterministic and stochastic terms to form a model where all the parameters are statistically identifiable from the on......-line measurements. With respect to the development of software sensors, the grey-box models possess two important features. Firstly, the on-line measurements can be filtered according to the grey-box model in order to remove noise deriving from the measuring equipment and controlling devices. Secondly, the grey......-box models may contain terms which can be estimated on-line by use of the models and measurements. In this paper, it is demonstrated that many storage basins in sewer systems can be used as an on-line flow measurement provided that the basin is monitored on-line with a level transmitter and that a grey...

  2. Environmental Radiation Effects on Mammals A Dynamical Modeling Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Smirnova, Olga A

    2010-01-01

    This text is devoted to the theoretical studies of radiation effects on mammals. It uses the framework of developed deterministic mathematical models to investigate the effects of both acute and chronic irradiation in a wide range of doses and dose rates on vital body systems including hematopoiesis, small intestine and humoral immunity, as well as on the development of autoimmune diseases. Thus, these models can contribute to the development of the system and quantitative approaches in radiation biology and ecology. This text is also of practical use. Its modeling studies of the dynamics of granulocytopoiesis and thrombocytopoiesis in humans testify to the efficiency of employment of the developed models in the investigation and prediction of radiation effects on these hematopoietic lines. These models, as well as the properly identified models of other vital body systems, could provide a better understanding of the radiation risks to health. The modeling predictions will enable the implementation of more ef...

  3. Finansal Varlıkları Fiyatlama Modelinin Analizi: Varsayımlar, Bulgular ve Hakkındaki Eleştiriler(An Analysis of Capital Asset Pricing Model: Assumptions, Arguments and Critics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan Bilir

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Yatırım fırsatlarının değerlendirilmesi süreci beklene getiri ve riskin ölçümüne bağlıdır. Finansal Varlıkları Fiyatlama Modeli (CAPM, çok uzun yıllardır modern finans teorisinin temel taşlarından bir tanesini oluşturmaktadır. Model, varlıkların beklenen getirisi ve sistematik riski arasındaki basit doğrusal ilişkiyi ortaya koymaktadır. Model halen, sermaye maliyetinin hesaplanması, portföy yönetiminin performansının ölçülmesi ve yatırımların değerlendirilmesi amacıyla kullanılmaktadır. CAPM’in çekiciliği, riskin ve beklenen getiri ve risk arasındaki ilişkinin ölçümlenmesi konusundaki güçlü tahmin yeteneğinden gelmektedir. Bununla birlikte modelin bu yeteneği 30 yılı aşkın bir süredir akademisyenler ve uygulamacılar tarafından sorgulanmaktadır. Tartışmalar büyük ölçüde ampirik düzeyde gerçekleştirilmektedir. CAPM’in ampirik düzeydeki problemleri, çok sayıda basitleştirilmiş varsayımı içermesi nedeniyle teorik hatalardır. Çok sayıdaki gerçekçi olmayan varsayımlar modeli pratik olarak kullanışsız hale getirmektedir. Model ile ilgili temel eleştiriler ise risksiz faiz oranı, pazar portföyü ve beta katsayı üzerinde yoğunlaşmaktadır.

  4. An examination of the impact of care giving styles (accommodation and skilful communication and support) on the one year outcome of adolescent anorexia nervosa: Testing the assumptions of the cognitive interpersonal model in anorexia nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Laura; Rhind, Charlotte; Hibbs, Rebecca; Micali, Nadia; Schmidt, Ulrike; Gowers, Simon; Macdonald, Pamela; Goddard, Elizabeth; Todd, Gillian; Lo Coco, Gianluca; Treasure, Janet

    2016-02-01

    The cognitive interpersonal model predicts that parental caregiving style will impact on the rate of improvement of anorexia nervosa symptoms. The study aims to examine whether the absolute levels and the relative congruence between mothers' and fathers' care giving styles influenced the rate of change of their children's symptoms of anorexia nervosa over 12 months. Triads (n=54) consisting of patients with anorexia nervosa and both of their parents were included in the study. Caregivers completed the Caregiver Skills scale and the Accommodation and Enabling Scale at intake. Patients completed the Short Evaluation of Eating Disorders at intake and at monthly intervals for one year. Polynomial Hierarchical Linear Modeling was used for the analysis. There is a person/dose dependant relationship between accommodation and patients' outcome, i.e. when both mother and father are highly accommodating outcome is poor, if either is highly accommodating outcome is intermediate and if both parents are low on accommodation outcome is good. Outcome is also good if both parents or mother alone have high levels of carer skills and poor if both have low levels of skills. Including only a sub-sample of an adolescent clinical population; not considering time spent care giving, and reporting patient's self-reported outcome data limits the generalisability of the current findings. Accommodating and enabling behaviours by family members can serve to maintain eating disorder behaviours. However, skilful behaviours particularly by mothers, can aid recovery. Clinical interventions to optimise care giving skills and to reduce accommodation by both parents may be an important addition to treatment for anorexia nervosa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Modelling dynamic ecosystems : venturing beyond boundaries with the Ecopath approach

    OpenAIRE

    Coll, Marta; Akoglu, E.; Arreguin-Sanchez, F.; Fulton, E. A.; Gascuel, D.; Heymans, J. J.; Libralato, S.; Mackinson, S.; Palomera, I.; Piroddi, C.; Shannon, L. J.; Steenbeek, J.; Villasante, S.; Christensen, V.

    2015-01-01

    Thirty years of progress using the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach in different fields such as ecosystem impacts of fishing and climate change, emergent ecosystem dynamics, ecosystem-based management, and marine conservation and spatial planning were showcased November 2014 at the conference "Ecopath 30 years-modelling dynamic ecosystems: beyond boundaries with EwE". Exciting new developments include temporal-spatial and end-to-end modelling, as well as novel applications to environmental ...

  6. Regularization of quantum gravity in the matrix model approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ueda, Haruhiko

    1991-02-01

    We study divergence problem of the partition function in the matrix model approach for two-dimensional quantum gravity. We propose a new model V(φ) = 1/2Trφ 2 + g 4 /NTrφ 4 + g'/N 4 Tr(φ 4 ) 2 and show that in the sphere case it has no divergence problem and the critical exponent is of pure gravity. (author)

  7. Gray-box modelling approach for description of storage tunnel

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, Poul; Carstensen, Jacob

    1999-01-01

    The dynamics of a storage tunnel is examined using a model based on on-line measured data and a combination of simple deterministic and black-box stochastic elements. This approach, called gray-box modeling, is a new promising methodology for giving an on-line state description of sewer systems. ...... in a SCADA system because the most important information on the specific system is provided on-line...

  8. Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    conservativeness level , the conservative probability of failure obtained from Section 4 must be maintained. The mathematical formulation of conservative model... CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...PDF and a probability of failure are selected from these predicted output PDFs at a user-specified conservativeness level for validation. For

  9. Estimating, Testing, and Comparing Specific Effects in Structural Equation Models: The Phantom Model Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macho, Siegfried; Ledermann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The phantom model approach for estimating, testing, and comparing specific effects within structural equation models (SEMs) is presented. The rationale underlying this novel method consists in representing the specific effect to be assessed as a total effect within a separate latent variable model, the phantom model that is added to the main…

  10. Comparative flood damage model assessment: towards a European approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, B.; Kreibich, H.; Apel, H.; Barredo, J. I.; Bates, P. D.; Feyen, L.; Gericke, A.; Neal, J.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2012-12-01

    There is a wide variety of flood damage models in use internationally, differing substantially in their approaches and economic estimates. Since these models are being used more and more as a basis for investment and planning decisions on an increasingly large scale, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties involved and develop a harmonised European approach, in particular with respect to the EU Flood Risks Directive. In this paper we present a qualitative and quantitative assessment of seven flood damage models, using two case studies of past flood events in Germany and the United Kingdom. The qualitative analysis shows that modelling approaches vary strongly, and that current methodologies for estimating infrastructural damage are not as well developed as methodologies for the estimation of damage to buildings. The quantitative results show that the model outcomes are very sensitive to uncertainty in both vulnerability (i.e. depth-damage functions) and exposure (i.e. asset values), whereby the first has a larger effect than the latter. We conclude that care needs to be taken when using aggregated land use data for flood risk assessment, and that it is essential to adjust asset values to the regional economic situation and property characteristics. We call for the development of a flexible but consistent European framework that applies best practice from existing models while providing room for including necessary regional adjustments.

  11. A Final Approach Trajectory Model for Current Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Chester; Sadovsky, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Predicting accurate trajectories with limited intent information is a challenge faced by air traffic management decision support tools in operation today. One such tool is the FAA's Terminal Proximity Alert system which is intended to assist controllers in maintaining safe separation of arrival aircraft during final approach. In an effort to improve the performance of such tools, two final approach trajectory models are proposed; one based on polynomial interpolation, the other on the Fourier transform. These models were tested against actual traffic data and used to study effects of the key final approach trajectory modeling parameters of wind, aircraft type, and weight class, on trajectory prediction accuracy. Using only the limited intent data available to today's ATM system, both the polynomial interpolation and Fourier transform models showed improved trajectory prediction accuracy over a baseline dead reckoning model. Analysis of actual arrival traffic showed that this improved trajectory prediction accuracy leads to improved inter-arrival separation prediction accuracy for longer look ahead times. The difference in mean inter-arrival separation prediction error between the Fourier transform and dead reckoning models was 0.2 nmi for a look ahead time of 120 sec, a 33 percent improvement, with a corresponding 32 percent improvement in standard deviation.

  12. The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klos, Richard

    2008-03-15

    An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

  13. A Poisson hierarchical modelling approach to detecting copy number variation in sequence coverage data

    KAUST Repository

    Sepúlveda, Nuno

    2013-02-26

    Background: The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model.Results: Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates.Conclusions: In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data. 2013 Seplveda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  14. Modeling of phase equilibria with CPA using the homomorph approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breil, Martin Peter; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Kontogeorgis, Georgios

    2011-01-01

    For association models, like CPA and SAFT, a classical approach is often used for estimating pure-compound and mixture parameters. According to this approach, the pure-compound parameters are estimated from vapor pressure and liquid density data. Then, the binary interaction parameters, kij......, are estimated from binary systems; one binary interaction parameter per system. No additional mixing rules are needed for cross-associating systems, but combining rules are required, e.g. the Elliott rule or the so-called CR-1 rule. There is a very large class of mixtures, e.g. water or glycols with aromatic...... interaction parameters are often used for solvating systems; one for the physical part (kij) and one for the association part (βcross). This limits the predictive capabilities and possibilities of generalization of the model. In this work we present an approach to reduce the number of adjustable parameters...

  15. A model-data based systems approach to process intensification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    . Their developments, however, are largely due to experiment based trial and error approaches and while they do not require validation, they can be time consuming and resource intensive. Also, one may ask, can a truly new intensified unit operation be obtained in this way? An alternative two-stage approach is to apply...... for focused validation of only the promising candidates in the second-stage. This approach, however, would be limited to intensification based on “known” unit operations, unless the PI process synthesis/design is considered at a lower level of aggregation, namely the phenomena level. That is, the model......-based synthesis method must employ models at lower levels of aggregation and through combination rules for phenomena, generate (synthesize) new intensified unit operations. An efficient solution procedure for the synthesis problem is needed to tackle the potentially large number of options that would be obtained...

  16. A Two Step Face Alignment Approach Using Statistical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Cui

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Although face alignment using the Active Appearance Model (AAM is relatively stable, it is known to be sensitive to initial values and not robust under inconstant circumstances. In order to strengthen the ability of AAM performance for face alignment, a two step approach for face alignment combining AAM and Active Shape Model (ASM is proposed. In the first step, AAM is used to locate the inner landmarks of the face. In the second step, the extended ASM is used to locate the outer landmarks of the face under the constraint of the estimated inner landmarks by AAM. The two kinds of landmarks are then combined together to form the whole facial landmarks. The proposed approach is compared with the basic AAM and the progressive AAM methods. Experimental results show that the proposed approach gives a much more effective performance.

  17. A review of function modeling : Approaches and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erden, M.S.; Komoto, H.; Van Beek, T.J.; D'Amelio, V.; Echavarria, E.; Tomiyama, T.

    2008-01-01

    This work is aimed at establishing a common frame and understanding of function modeling (FM) for our ongoing research activities. A comparative review of the literature is performed to grasp the various FM approaches with their commonalities and differences. The relations of FM with the research

  18. The Bipolar Approach: A Model for Interdisciplinary Art History Courses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, John A.

    1993-01-01

    Describes a college level art history course based on the opposing concepts of Classicism and Romanticism. Contends that all creative work, such as film or architecture, can be categorized according to this bipolar model. Includes suggestions for objects to study and recommends this approach for art education at all education levels. (CFR)

  19. Model-independent approach for dark matter phenomenology ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We have studied the phenomenology of dark matter at the ILC and cosmic positron experiments based on model-independent approach. We have found a strong correlation between dark matter signatures at the ILC and those in the indirect detection experiments of dark matter. Once the dark matter is discovered in the ...

  20. A Behavioral Decision Making Modeling Approach Towards Hedging Services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Candel, M.J.J.M.; Egelkraut, T.M.

    2003-01-01

    This paper takes a behavioral approach toward the market for hedging services. A behavioral decision-making model is developed that provides insight into how and why owner-managers decide the way they do regarding hedging services. Insight into those choice processes reveals information needed by

  1. Comparing State SAT Scores Using a Mixture Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, YoungKoung Rachel

    2009-01-01

    Presented at the national conference for AERA (American Educational Research Association) in April 2009. The large variability of SAT taker population across states makes state-by-state comparisons of the SAT scores challenging. Using a mixture modeling approach, therefore, the current study presents a method of identifying subpopulations in terms…

  2. Export of microplastics from land to sea. A modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siegfried, Max; Koelmans, A.A.; Besseling, E.; Kroeze, C.

    2017-01-01

    Quantifying the transport of plastic debris from river to sea is crucial for assessing the risks of plastic debris to human health and the environment. We present a global modelling approach to analyse the composition and quantity of point-source microplastic fluxes from European rivers to the sea.

  3. A novel Monte Carlo approach to hybrid local volatility models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.W. van der Stoep (Anton); L.A. Grzelak (Lech Aleksander); C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractWe present in a Monte Carlo simulation framework, a novel approach for the evaluation of hybrid local volatility [Risk, 1994, 7, 18–20], [Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance, 1998, 1, 61–110] models. In particular, we consider the stochastic local volatility model—see e.g. Lipton et al. [Quant.

  4. Hidden Markov model-based approach for generation of Pitman ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Speech is one of the most basic means of human communication. ... human beings is carried out with the aid of communication and has facilitated the development ... Hidden Markov model-based approach for generation of PSL symbols. 279. Table 1. PSL basic strokes and English consonants. English consonant.

  5. A novel Monte Carlo approach to hybrid local volatility models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Stoep, A.W.; Grzelak, L.A.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2017-01-01

    We present in a Monte Carlo simulation framework, a novel approach for the evaluation of hybrid local volatility [Risk, 1994, 7, 18–20], [Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance, 1998, 1, 61–110] models. In particular, we consider the stochastic local volatility model—see e.g. Lipton et al. [Quant. Finance,

  6. Model-independent approach for dark matter phenomenology

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We have studied the phenomenology of dark matter at the ILC and cosmic positron experiments based on model-independent approach. We have found a strong correlation between dark matter signatures at the ILC and those in the indirect detection experiments of dark matter. Once the dark matter is discovered in the ...

  7. Model-independent approach for dark matter phenomenology ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We have studied the phenomenology of dark matter at the ILC and cosmic positron experiments based on model-independent approach. We have found a strong correlation between dark matter signatures at the ILC and those in the indirect detec- tion experiments of dark matter. Once the dark matter is discovered ...

  8. Using artificial neural network approach for modelling rainfall–runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 122; Issue 2. Using artificial neural network approach for modelling ... Nevertheless, water level and flow records are essential in hydrological analysis for designing related water works of flood management. Due to the complexity of the hydrological process, ...

  9. An Approach to Quality Estimation in Model-Based Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holmegaard, Jens Peter; Koch, Peter; Ravn, Anders Peter

    2004-01-01

    We present an approach to estimation of parameters for design space exploration in Model-Based Development, where synthesis of a system is done in two stages. Component qualities like space, execution time or power consumption are defined in a repository by platform dependent values. Connectors...

  10. Hidden Markov model-based approach for generation of Pitman ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this paper, an approach for feature extraction using Mel frequency cep- stral coefficients (MFCC) and classification using hidden Markov models (HMM) for generating strokes comprising consonants and vowels (CV) in the process of production of Pitman shorthand language from spoken English is proposed. The.

  11. Pruning Chinese trees : an experimental and modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeng, Bo

    2001-01-01

    Pruning of trees, in which some branches are removed from the lower crown of a tree, has been extensively used in China in silvicultural management for many purposes. With an experimental and modelling approach, the effects of pruning on tree growth and on the harvest of plant material were studied.

  12. Non-frontal Model Based Approach to Forensic Face Recognition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dutta, A.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a non-frontal model based approach which ensures that a face recognition system always gets to compare images having similar view (or pose). This requires a virtual suspect reference set that consists of non-frontal suspect images having pose similar to the surveillance

  13. Legal assumptions for private company claim for additional (supplementary payment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šogorov Stevan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Subject matter of analyze in this article are legal assumptions which must be met in order to enable private company to call for additional payment. After introductory remarks discussion is focused on existence of provisions regarding additional payment in formation contract, or in shareholders meeting general resolution, as starting point for company's claim. Second assumption is concrete resolution of shareholders meeting which creates individual obligations for additional payments. Third assumption is defined as distinctness regarding sum of payment and due date. Sending of claim by relevant company body is set as fourth legal assumption for realization of company's right to claim additional payments from member of private company.

  14. Reconciliation with oneself and with others: From approach to model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić-Ristanović Vesna

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper intends to present the approach to dealing with war and its consequences which was developed within Victimology Society of Serbia over the last five years, in the framework of Association Joint Action for Truth and Reconciliation (ZAIP. First, the short review of the Association and the process through which ZAIP approach to dealing with a past was developed is presented. Then, the detailed description of the approach itself, with identification of its most important specificities, is presented. In the conclusion, next steps, aimed at development of the model of reconciliation which will have the basis in ZAIP approach and which will be appropriate to social context of Serbia and its surrounding, are suggested.

  15. EXTENDE MODEL OF COMPETITIVITY THROUG APPLICATION OF NEW APPROACH DIRECTIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slavko Arsovski

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The basic subject of this work is the model of new approach impact on quality and safety products, and competency of our companies. This work represents real hypothesis on the basis of expert's experiences, in regard to that the infrastructure with using new approach directives wasn't examined until now, it isn't known which product or industry of Serbia is related to directives of the new approach and CE mark, and it is not known which are effects of the use of the CE mark. This work should indicate existing quality reserves and product's safety, the level of possible competency improvement and increasing the profit by discharging new approach directive requires.

  16. Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Chia-Ming Chen

    Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.

  17. Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malo, Pekka

    2009-11-01

    Electricity prices are known to exhibit multifractal properties. We accommodate this finding by investigating multifractal models for electricity prices. In this paper we propose a flexible Copula-MSM (Markov Switching Multifractal) approach for modeling spot and weekly futures price dynamics. By using a conditional copula function, the framework allows us to separately model the dependence structure, while enabling use of multifractal stochastic volatility models to characterize fluctuations in marginal returns. An empirical experiment is carried out using data from Nord Pool. A study of volatility forecasting performance for electricity spot prices reveals that multifractal techniques are a competitive alternative to GARCH models. We also demonstrate how the Copula-MSM model can be employed for finding optimal portfolios, which minimizes the Conditional Value-at-Risk.

  18. Multiphysics modeling using COMSOL a first principles approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pryor, Roger W

    2011-01-01

    Multiphysics Modeling Using COMSOL rapidly introduces the senior level undergraduate, graduate or professional scientist or engineer to the art and science of computerized modeling for physical systems and devices. It offers a step-by-step modeling methodology through examples that are linked to the Fundamental Laws of Physics through a First Principles Analysis approach. The text explores a breadth of multiphysics models in coordinate systems that range from 1D to 3D and introduces the readers to the numerical analysis modeling techniques employed in the COMSOL Multiphysics software. After readers have built and run the examples, they will have a much firmer understanding of the concepts, skills, and benefits acquired from the use of computerized modeling techniques to solve their current technological problems and to explore new areas of application for their particular technological areas of interest.

  19. Evaluation of Workflow Management Systems - A Meta Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Rosemann

    1998-11-01

    Full Text Available The automated enactment of processes through the use of workflow management systems enables the outsourcing of the control flow from application systems. By now a large number of systems, that follow different workflow paradigms, are available. This leads to the problem of selecting the appropriate workflow management system for a given situation. In this paper we outline the benefits of a meta model approach for the evaluation and comparison of different workflow management systems. After a general introduction on the topic of meta modeling the meta models of the workflow management systems WorkParty (Siemens Nixdorf and FlowMark (IBM are compared as an example. These product specific meta models can be generalized to meta reference models, which helps to specify a workflow methodology. Exemplary, an organisational reference meta model is presented, which helps users in specifying their requirements for a workflow management system.

  20. Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addison, P F E; de Bie, K; Rumpff, L

    2015-10-01

    We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future. © 2015 The

  1. A simplified GIS approach to modeling global leaf water isoscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason B West

    Full Text Available The stable hydrogen (delta(2H and oxygen (delta(18O isotope ratios of organic and inorganic materials record biological and physical processes through the effects of substrate isotopic composition and fractionations that occur as reactions proceed. At large scales, these processes can exhibit spatial predictability because of the effects of coherent climatic patterns over the Earth's surface. Attempts to model spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios of water have been made for decades. Leaf water has a particular importance for some applications, including plant organic materials that record spatial and temporal climate variability and that may be a source of food for migrating animals. It is also an important source of the variability in the isotopic composition of atmospheric gases. Although efforts to model global-scale leaf water isotope ratio spatial variation have been made (especially of delta(18O, significant uncertainty remains in models and their execution across spatial domains. We introduce here a Geographic Information System (GIS approach to the generation of global, spatially-explicit isotope landscapes (= isoscapes of "climate normal" leaf water isotope ratios. We evaluate the approach and the resulting products by comparison with simulation model outputs and point measurements, where obtainable, over the Earth's surface. The isoscapes were generated using biophysical models of isotope fractionation and spatially continuous precipitation isotope and climate layers as input model drivers. Leaf water delta(18O isoscapes produced here generally agreed with latitudinal averages from GCM/biophysical model products, as well as mean values from point measurements. These results show global-scale spatial coherence in leaf water isotope ratios, similar to that observed for precipitation and validate the GIS approach to modeling leaf water isotopes. These results demonstrate that relatively simple models of leaf water enrichment

  2. Thermal radiation transfer calculations in combustion fields using the SLW model coupled with a modified reference approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darbandi, Masoud; Abrar, Bagher

    2018-01-01

    The spectral-line weighted-sum-of-gray-gases (SLW) model is considered as a modern global model, which can be used in predicting the thermal radiation heat transfer within the combustion fields. The past SLW model users have mostly employed the reference approach to calculate the local values of gray gases' absorption coefficient. This classical reference approach assumes that the absorption spectra of gases at different thermodynamic conditions are scalable with the absorption spectrum of gas at a reference thermodynamic state in the domain. However, this assumption cannot be reasonable in combustion fields, where the gas temperature is very different from the reference temperature. Consequently, the results of SLW model incorporated with the classical reference approach, say the classical SLW method, are highly sensitive to the reference temperature magnitude in non-isothermal combustion fields. To lessen this sensitivity, the current work combines the SLW model with a modified reference approach, which is a particular one among the eight possible reference approach forms reported recently by Solovjov, et al. [DOI: 10.1016/j.jqsrt.2017.01.034, 2017]. The combination is called "modified SLW method". This work shows that the modified reference approach can provide more accurate total emissivity calculation than the classical reference approach if it is coupled with the SLW method. This would be particularly helpful for more accurate calculation of radiation transfer in highly non-isothermal combustion fields. To approve this, we use both the classical and modified SLW methods and calculate the radiation transfer in such fields. It is shown that the modified SLW method can almost eliminate the sensitivity of achieved results to the chosen reference temperature in treating highly non-isothermal combustion fields.

  3. A Genetic Algorithm Approach for Modeling a Grounding Electrode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Arbind Kumar; Nagaoka, Naoto; Ametani, Akihiro

    This paper has proposed a genetic algorithm based approach to determine a grounding electrode model circuit composed of resistances, inductances and capacitances. The proposed methodology determines the model circuit parameters based on a general ladder circuit directly from a measured result. Transient voltages of some electrodes were measured when applying a step like current. An EMTP simulation of a transient voltage on the grounding electrode has been carried out by adopting the proposed model circuits. The accuracy of the proposed method has been confirmed to be high in comparison with the measured transient voltage.

  4. A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach to Seismic Hazard Modeling Using the ETAS Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, G.

    2015-12-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is one of the most popular tools for modeling seismicity and quantifying risk in earthquake-prone regions. Under the ETAS model, the occurrence times of earthquakes are treated as a self-exciting Poisson process where each earthquake briefly increases the probability of subsequent earthquakes occurring soon afterwards, which captures the fact that large mainshocks tend to produce long sequences of aftershocks. A triggering kernel controls the amount by which the probability increases based on the magnitude of each earthquake, and the rate at which it then decays over time. This triggering kernel is usually chosen heuristically, to match the parametric form of the modified Omori law for aftershock decay. However recent work has questioned whether this is an appropriate choice. Since the choice of kernel has a large impact on the predictions made by the ETAS model, avoiding misspecification is crucially important. We present a novel nonparametric version of ETAS which avoids making parametric assumptions, and instead learns the correct specification from the data itself. Our approach is based on the Dirichlet process, which is a modern class of Bayesian prior distribution which allows for efficient inference over an infinite dimensional space of functions. We show how our nonparametric ETAS model can be fit to data, and present results demonstrating that the fit is greatly improved compared to the standard parametric specification. Additionally, we explain how our model can be used to perform probabilistic declustering of earthquake catalogs, to classify earthquakes as being either aftershocks or mainshocks. and to learn the causal relations between pairs of earthquakes.

  5. Data-driven approach to dynamic visual attention modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culibrk, Dubravko; Sladojevic, Srdjan; Riche, Nicolas; Mancas, Matei; Crnojevic, Vladimir

    2012-06-01

    Visual attention deployment mechanisms allow the Human Visual System to cope with an overwhelming amount of visual data by dedicating most of the processing power to objects of interest. The ability to automatically detect areas of the visual scene that will be attended to by humans is of interest for a large number of applications, from video coding, video quality assessment to scene understanding. Due to this fact, visual saliency (bottom-up attention) models have generated significant scientific interest in recent years. Most recent work in this area deals with dynamic models of attention that deal with moving stimuli (videos) instead of traditionally used still images. Visual saliency models are usually evaluated against ground-truth eye-tracking data collected from human subjects. However, there are precious few recently published approaches that try to learn saliency from eyetracking data and, to the best of our knowledge, no approaches that try to do so when dynamic saliency is concerned. The paper attempts to fill this gap and describes an approach to data-driven dynamic saliency model learning. A framework is proposed that enables the use of eye-tracking data to train an arbitrary machine learning algorithm, using arbitrary features derived from the scene. We evaluate the methodology using features from a state-of-the art dynamic saliency model and show how simple machine learning algorithms can be trained to distinguish between visually salient and non-salient parts of the scene.

  6. Polynomial Chaos Expansion Approach to Interest Rate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Di Persio

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE technique allows us to recover a finite second-order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity ξ, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed as a mathematically rigorous Uncertainty Quantification (UQ method which aims at providing reliable numerical estimates for some uncertain physical quantities defining the dynamic of certain engineering models and their related simulations. In the present paper, we use the PCE approach in order to analyze some equity and interest rate models. In particular, we take into consideration those models which are based on, for example, the Geometric Brownian Motion, the Vasicek model, and the CIR model. We present theoretical as well as related concrete numerical approximation results considering, without loss of generality, the one-dimensional case. We also provide both an efficiency study and an accuracy study of our approach by comparing its outputs with the ones obtained adopting the Monte Carlo approach, both in its standard and its enhanced version.

  7. Common modelling approaches for training simulators for nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-02-01

    Training simulators for nuclear power plant operating staff have gained increasing importance over the last twenty years. One of the recommendations of the 1983 IAEA Specialists' Meeting on Nuclear Power Plant Training Simulators in Helsinki was to organize a Co-ordinated Research Programme (CRP) on some aspects of training simulators. The goal statement was: ''To establish and maintain a common approach to modelling for nuclear training simulators based on defined training requirements''. Before adapting this goal statement, the participants considered many alternatives for defining the common aspects of training simulator models, such as the programming language used, the nature of the simulator computer system, the size of the simulation computers, the scope of simulation. The participants agreed that it was the training requirements that defined the need for a simulator, the scope of models and hence the type of computer complex that was required, the criteria for fidelity and verification, and was therefore the most appropriate basis for the commonality of modelling approaches. It should be noted that the Co-ordinated Research Programme was restricted, for a variety of reasons, to consider only a few aspects of training simulators. This report reflects these limitations, and covers only the topics considered within the scope of the programme. The information in this document is intended as an aid for operating organizations to identify possible modelling approaches for training simulators for nuclear power plants. 33 refs

  8. Estimating a DIF decomposition model using a random-weights linear logistic test model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Insu; Fukuhara, Hirotaka

    2015-09-01

    A differential item functioning (DIF) decomposition model separates a testlet item DIF into two sources: item-specific differential functioning and testlet-specific differential functioning. This article provides an alternative model-building framework and estimation approach for a DIF decomposition model that was proposed by Beretvas and Walker (2012). Although their model is formulated under multilevel modeling with the restricted pseudolikelihood estimation method, our approach illustrates DIF decomposition modeling that is directly built upon the random-weights linear logistic test model framework with the marginal maximum likelihood estimation method. In addition to demonstrating our approach's performance, we provide detailed information on how to implement this new DIF decomposition model using an item response theory software program; using DIF decomposition may be challenging for practitioners, yet practical information on how to implement it has previously been unavailable in the measurement literature.

  9. Controversies in psychotherapy research: epistemic differences in assumptions about human psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shean, Glenn D

    2013-01-01

    It is the thesis of this paper that differences in philosophical assumptions about the subject matter and treatment methods of psychotherapy have contributed to disagreements about the external validity of empirically supported therapies (ESTs). These differences are evident in the theories that are the basis for both the design and interpretation of recent psychotherapy efficacy studies. The natural science model, as applied to psychotherapy outcome research, transforms the constitutive features of the study subject in a reciprocal manner so that problems, treatments, and indicators of effectiveness are limited to what can be directly observed. Meaning-based approaches to therapy emphasize processes and changes that do not lend themselves to experimental study. Hermeneutic philosophy provides a supplemental model to establishing validity in those instances where outcome indicators do not lend themselves to direct observation and measurement and require "deep" interpretation. Hermeneutics allows for a broadening of psychological study that allows one to establish a form of validity that is applicable when constructs do not refer to things that literally "exist" in nature. From a hermeneutic perspective the changes that occur in meaning-based therapies must be understood and evaluated on the manner in which they are applied to new situations, the logical ordering and harmony of the parts with the theoretical whole, and the capability of convincing experts and patients that the interpretation can stand up against other ways of understanding. Adoption of this approach often is necessary to competently evaluate the effectiveness of meaning-based therapies.

  10. Stochastic frontier model approach for measuring stock market efficiency with different distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Md Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah; Mustafa, Adli; Baten, Md Azizul

    2012-01-01

    The stock market is considered essential for economic growth and expected to contribute to improved productivity. An efficient pricing mechanism of the stock market can be a driving force for channeling savings into profitable investments and thus facilitating optimal allocation of capital. This study investigated the technical efficiency of selected groups of companies of Bangladesh Stock Market that is the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market, using the stochastic frontier production function approach. For this, the authors considered the Cobb-Douglas Stochastic frontier in which the technical inefficiency effects are defined by a model with two distributional assumptions. Truncated normal and half-normal distributions were used in the model and both time-variant and time-invariant inefficiency effects were estimated. The results reveal that technical efficiency decreased gradually over the reference period and that truncated normal distribution is preferable to half-normal distribution for technical inefficiency effects. The value of technical efficiency was high for the investment group and low for the bank group, as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-varying environment whereas it was high for the investment group but low for the ceramic group as compared with other groups in the DSE market for both distributions in time-invariant situation.

  11. Poisson regression approach for modeling fatal injury rates amongst Malaysian workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamarulzaman Ibrahim; Heng Khai Theng

    2005-01-01

    Many safety studies are based on the analysis carried out on injury surveillance data. The injury surveillance data gathered for the analysis include information on number of employees at risk of injury in each of several strata where the strata are defined in terms of a series of important predictor variables. Further insight into the relationship between fatal injury rates and predictor variables may be obtained by the poisson regression approach. Poisson regression is widely used in analyzing count data. In this study, poisson regression is used to model the relationship between fatal injury rates and predictor variables which are year (1995-2002), gender, recording system and industry type. Data for the analysis were obtained from PERKESO and Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia. It is found that the assumption that the data follow poisson distribution has been violated. After correction for the problem of over dispersion, the predictor variables that are found to be significant in the model are gender, system of recording, industry type, two interaction effects (interaction between recording system and industry type and between year and industry type). Introduction Regression analysis is one of the most popular

  12. Modeling of multisensory convergence with a network of spiking neurons: a reverse engineering approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hun Ki; Keniston, Leslie P; Cios, Krzysztof J

    2011-07-01

    Multisensory processing in the brain underlies a wide variety of perceptual phenomena, but little is known about the underlying mechanisms of how multisensory neurons are formed. This lack of knowledge is due to the difficulty for biological experiments to manipulate and test the parameters of multisensory convergence, the first and definitive step in the multisensory process. Therefore, by using a computational model of multisensory convergence, this study seeks to provide insight into the mechanisms of multisensory convergence. To reverse-engineer multisensory convergence, we used a biologically realistic neuron model and a biology-inspired plasticity rule, but did not make any a priori assumptions about multisensory properties of neurons in the network. The network consisted of two separate projection areas that converged upon neurons in a third area, and stimulation involved activation of one of the projection areas (or the other) or their combination. Experiments consisted of two parts: network training and multisensory simulation. Analyses were performed, first, to find multisensory properties in the simulated networks; second, to reveal properties of the network using graph theoretical approach; and third, to generate hypothesis related to the multisensory convergence. The results showed that the generation of multisensory neurons related to the topological properties of the network, in particular, the strengths of connections after training, was found to play an important role in forming and thus distinguishing multisensory neuron types. © 2011 IEEE

  13. Plenary lecture: innovative modeling approaches applicable to risk assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oscar, T P

    2011-06-01

    Proper identification of safe and unsafe food at the processing plant is important for maximizing the public health benefit of food by ensuring both its consumption and safety. Risk assessment is a holistic approach to food safety that consists of four steps: 1) hazard identification; 2) exposure assessment; 3) hazard characterization; and 4) risk characterization. Risk assessments are modeled by mapping the risk pathway as a series of unit operations and associated pathogen events and then using probability distributions and a random sampling method to simulate the rare, random, variable and uncertain nature of pathogen events in the risk pathway. To model pathogen events, a rare event modeling approach is used that links a discrete distribution for incidence of the pathogen event with a continuous distribution for extent of the pathogen event. When applied to risk assessment, rare event modeling leads to the conclusion that the most highly contaminated food at the processing plant does not necessarily pose the highest risk to public health because of differences in post-processing risk factors among distribution channels and consumer populations. Predictive microbiology models for individual pathogen events can be integrated with risk assessment models using the rare event modeling method. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

    KAUST Repository

    Boas, Sonja E. M.

    2015-11-21

    Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  15. A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

    2015-11-21

    Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

  16. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, H.K.; Christian, R.A.; Banerjee, J.; Patra, A.K.

    2013-01-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and 3 H concentration at discharge point. The Output was 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. -- Highlights: • Uncommon approach (Fuzzy Rule Base) of modelling radionuclide dispersion in Lake. • Predicts 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at a point of human exposure. • RMSE of fuzzy model is 1.95, which means, it has well imitated natural ecosystem

  17. Modeling energy fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes employing a mosaic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Priesack, Eckart

    2015-04-01

    Recent studies show that uncertainties in regional and global climate and weather simulations are partly due to inadequate descriptions of the energy flux exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. One major shortcoming is the limitation of the grid-cell resolution, which is recommended to be about at least 3x3 km² in most models due to limitations in the model physics. To represent each individual grid cell most models select one dominant soil type and one dominant land use type. This resolution, however, is often too coarse in regions where the spatial diversity of soil and land use types are high, e.g. in Central Europe. An elegant method to avoid the shortcoming of grid cell resolution is the so called mosaic approach. This approach is part of the recently developed ecosystem model framework Expert-N 5.0. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the characteristics of two managed fields, planted with winter wheat and potato, on the near surface soil moistures and on the near surface energy flux exchanges of the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. The simulated energy fluxes were compared with eddy flux tower measurements between the respective fields at the research farm Scheyern, North-West of Munich, Germany. To perform these simulations, we coupled the ecosystem model Expert-N 5.0 to an analytical footprint model. The coupled model system has the ability to calculate the mixing ratio of the surface energy fluxes at a given point within one grid cell (in this case at the flux tower between the two fields). This approach accounts for the differences of the two soil types, of land use managements, and of canopy properties due to footprint size dynamics. Our preliminary simulation results show that a mosaic approach can improve modeling and analyzing energy fluxes when the land surface is heterogeneous. In this case our applied method is a promising approach to extend weather and climate models on the regional and on the global scale.

  18. Inference of reactive transport model parameters using a Bayesian multivariate approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carniato, Luca; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick

    2014-08-01

    Parameter estimation of subsurface transport models from multispecies data requires the definition of an objective function that includes different types of measurements. Common approaches are weighted least squares (WLS), where weights are specified a priori for each measurement, and weighted least squares with weight estimation (WLS(we)) where weights are estimated from the data together with the parameters. In this study, we formulate the parameter estimation task as a multivariate Bayesian inference problem. The WLS and WLS(we) methods are special cases in this framework, corresponding to specific prior assumptions about the residual covariance matrix. The Bayesian perspective allows for generalizations to cases where residual correlation is important and for efficient inference by analytically integrating out the variances (weights) and selected covariances from the joint posterior. Specifically, the WLS and WLS(we) methods are compared to a multivariate (MV) approach that accounts for specific residual correlations without the need for explicit estimation of the error parameters. When applied to inference of reactive transport model parameters from column-scale data on dissolved species concentrations, the following results were obtained: (1) accounting for residual correlation between species provides more accurate parameter estimation for high residual correlation levels whereas its influence for predictive uncertainty is negligible, (2) integrating out the (co)variances leads to an efficient estimation of the full joint posterior with a reduced computational effort compared to the WLS(we) method, and (3) in the presence of model structural errors, none of the methods is able to identify the correct parameter values.

  19. Bayesian approach to errors-in-variables in regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozliman, Nur Aainaa; Ibrahim, Adriana Irawati Nur; Yunus, Rossita Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    In many applications and experiments, data sets are often contaminated with error or mismeasured covariates. When at least one of the covariates in a model is measured with error, Errors-in-Variables (EIV) model can be used. Measurement error, when not corrected, would cause misleading statistical inferences and analysis. Therefore, our goal is to examine the relationship of the outcome variable and the unobserved exposure variable given the observed mismeasured surrogate by applying the Bayesian formulation to the EIV model. We shall extend the flexible parametric method proposed by Hossain and Gustafson (2009) to another nonlinear regression model which is the Poisson regression model. We shall then illustrate the application of this approach via a simulation study using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods.

  20. Transportation radiological risk assessment for the programmatic environmental impact statement: An overview of methodologies, assumptions, and input parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monette, F.; Biwer, B.; LePoire, D.; Chen, S.Y.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is considering a broad range of alternatives for the future configuration of radioactive waste management at its network of facilities. Because the transportation of radioactive waste is an integral component of the management alternatives being considered, the estimated human health risks associated with both routine and accident transportation conditions must be assessed to allow a complete appraisal of the alternatives. This paper provides an overview of the technical approach being used to assess the radiological risks from the transportation of radioactive wastes. The approach presented employs the RADTRAN 4 computer code to estimate the collective population risk during routine and accident transportation conditions. Supplemental analyses are conducted using the RISKIND computer code to address areas of specific concern to individuals or population subgroups. RISKIND is used for estimating routine doses to maximally exposed individuals and for assessing the consequences of the most severe credible transportation accidents. The transportation risk assessment is designed to ensure -- through uniform and judicious selection of models, data, and assumptions -- that relative comparisons of risk among the various alternatives are meaningful. This is accomplished by uniformly applying common input parameters and assumptions to each waste type for all alternatives. The approach presented can be applied to all radioactive waste types and provides a consistent and comprehensive evaluation of transportation-related risk

  1. 40 CFR 264.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... FACILITIES Financial Requirements § 264.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the closure, post-closure care, or... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

  2. 40 CFR 261.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Excluded Hazardous Secondary Materials § 261.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the closure or liability... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

  3. 40 CFR 265.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., STORAGE, AND DISPOSAL FACILITIES Financial Requirements § 265.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the... 40 Protection of Environment 25 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

  4. 40 CFR 144.66 - State assumption of responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) UNDERGROUND INJECTION CONTROL PROGRAM Financial Responsibility: Class I Hazardous Waste Injection Wells § 144.66 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

  5. 40 CFR 267.150 - State assumption of responsibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... STANDARDIZED PERMIT Financial Requirements § 267.150 State assumption of responsibility. (a) If a State either assumes legal responsibility for an owner's or operator's compliance with the closure care or liability... 40 Protection of Environment 26 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false State assumption of responsibility...

  6. 40 CFR 761.2 - PCB concentration assumptions for use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 30 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false PCB concentration assumptions for use..., AND USE PROHIBITIONS General § 761.2 PCB concentration assumptions for use. (a)(1) Any person may..., oil-filled cable, and rectifiers whose PCB concentration is not established contain PCBs at < 50 ppm...

  7. Distributed automata in an assumption-commitment framework

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We propose a class of finite state systems of synchronizing distributed processes, where processes make assumptions at local states about the state of other processes in the system. This constrains the global states of the system to those where assumptions made by a process about another are compatible with the ...

  8. Basic assumptions in statistical analyses of data in biomedical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    If one or more assumptions are violated, an alternative procedure must be used to obtain valid results. This article aims at highlighting some basic assumptions in statistical analyses of data in biomedical sciences. Keywords: samples, independence, non-parametric, parametric, statistical analyses. Int. J. Biol. Chem. Sci. Vol.

  9. 29 CFR 1607.9 - No assumption of validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false No assumption of validity. 1607.9 Section 1607.9 Labor... EMPLOYEE SELECTION PROCEDURES (1978) General Principles § 1607.9 No assumption of validity. A. Unacceptable substitutes for evidence of validity. Under no circumstances will the general reputation of a test or other...

  10. A screening-level modeling approach to estimate nitrogen ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents a screening-level modeling approach that can be used to rapidly estimate nutrient loading and assess numerical nutrient standard exceedance risk of surface waters leading to potential classification as impaired for designated use. It can also be used to explore best management practice (BMP) implementation to reduce loading. The modeling framework uses a hybrid statistical and process based approach to estimate source of pollutants, their transport and decay in the terrestrial and aquatic parts of watersheds. The framework is developed in the ArcGIS environment and is based on the total maximum daily load (TMDL) balance model. Nitrogen (N) is currently addressed in the framework, referred to as WQM-TMDL-N. Loading for each catchment includes non-point sources (NPS) and point sources (PS). NPS loading is estimated using export coefficient or event mean concentration methods depending on the temporal scales, i.e., annual or daily. Loading from atmospheric deposition is also included. The probability of a nutrient load to exceed a target load is evaluated using probabilistic risk assessment, by including the uncertainty associated with export coefficients of various land uses. The computed risk data can be visualized as spatial maps which show the load exceedance probability for all stream segments. In an application of this modeling approach to the Tippecanoe River watershed in Indiana, USA, total nitrogen (TN) loading and risk of standard exce

  11. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, H K; Christian, R A; Banerjee, J; Patra, A K

    2013-10-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of (3)H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and (3)H concentration at discharge point. The Output was (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. BUSINESS MODEL ROADMAPPING: A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO COME FROM AN EXISTING TO A DESIRED BUSINESS MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    MARK DE REUVER; HARRY BOUWMAN; TIMBER HAAKER

    2013-01-01

    Literature on business models deals extensively with how to design new business models, but hardly with how to make the transition from an existing to a newly designed business model. The transition to a new business model raises several practical and strategic issues, such as how to replace an existing value proposition with a new one, when to acquire new resources and capabilities, and when to start new partnerships. In this paper, we coin the term business model roadmapping as an approach ...

  13. Anthropomorphic Coding of Speech and Audio: A Model Inversion Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Bastiaan Kleijn

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Auditory modeling is a well-established methodology that provides insight into human perception and that facilitates the extraction of signal features that are most relevant to the listener. The aim of this paper is to provide a tutorial on perceptual speech and audio coding using an invertible auditory model. In this approach, the audio signal is converted into an auditory representation using an invertible auditory model. The auditory representation is quantized and coded. Upon decoding, it is then transformed back into the acoustic domain. This transformation converts a complex distortion criterion into a simple one, thus facilitating quantization with low complexity. We briefly review past work on auditory models and describe in more detail the components of our invertible model and its inversion procedure, that is, the method to reconstruct the signal from the output of the auditory model. We summarize attempts to use the auditory representation for low-bit-rate coding. Our approach also allows the exploitation of the inherent redundancy of the human auditory system for the purpose of multiple description (joint source-channel coding.

  14. A modal approach to modeling spatially distributed vibration energy dissipation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Segalman, Daniel Joseph

    2010-08-01

    The nonlinear behavior of mechanical joints is a confounding element in modeling the dynamic response of structures. Though there has been some progress in recent years in modeling individual joints, modeling the full structure with myriad frictional interfaces has remained an obstinate challenge. A strategy is suggested for structural dynamics modeling that can account for the combined effect of interface friction distributed spatially about the structure. This approach accommodates the following observations: (1) At small to modest amplitudes, the nonlinearity of jointed structures is manifest primarily in the energy dissipation - visible as vibration damping; (2) Correspondingly, measured vibration modes do not change significantly with amplitude; and (3) Significant coupling among the modes does not appear to result at modest amplitudes. The mathematical approach presented here postulates the preservation of linear modes and invests all the nonlinearity in the evolution of the modal coordinates. The constitutive form selected is one that works well in modeling spatially discrete joints. When compared against a mathematical truth model, the distributed dissipation approximation performs well.

  15. PFP issues/assumptions development and management planning guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SINCLAIR, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    The PFP Issues/Assumptions Development and Management Planning Guide presents the strategy and process used for the identification, allocation, and maintenance of an Issues/Assumptions Management List for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) integrated project baseline. Revisions to this document will include, as attachments, the most recent version of the Issues/Assumptions Management List, both open and current issues/assumptions (Appendix A), and closed or historical issues/assumptions (Appendix B). This document is intended be a Project-owned management tool. As such, this document will periodically require revisions resulting from improvements of the information, processes, and techniques as now described. Revisions that suggest improved processes will only require PFP management approval

  16. Lifelong Learning: Foundational Models, Underlying Assumptions and Critiques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regmi, Kapil Dev

    2015-01-01

    Lifelong learning has become a catchword in almost all countries because of its growing influence on education policies in the globalised world. In the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the European Union (EU), the promotion of lifelong learning has been a strategy to speed up economic growth and become competitive.…

  17. Assessing and relaxing assumptions in quasi-simplex models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lugtig, Peter|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304824658; Cernat, Alexandru; Uhrig, Noah; Watson, Nicole

    2014-01-01

    Panel data (repeated measures of the same individuals) has become more and more popular in research as it has a number of unique advantages such as enabling researchers to answer questions about individual change and help deal (partially) with the issues linked to causality. But this type of data

  18. multi-scale data assimilation approaches and error characterisation applied to the inverse modelling of atmospheric constituent emission fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koohkan, Mohammad Reza

    2012-01-01

    Data assimilation in geophysical sciences aims at optimally estimating the state of the system or some parameters of the system's physical model. To do so, data assimilation needs three types of information: observations and background information, a physical/numerical model, and some statistical description that prescribes uncertainties to each component of the system. In my dissertation, new methodologies of data assimilation are used in atmospheric chemistry and physics: the joint use of a 4D-Var with a sub-grid statistical model to consistently account for representativeness errors, accounting for multiple scale in the BLUE estimation principle, and a better estimation of prior errors using objective estimation of hyper-parameters. These three approaches will be specifically applied to inverse modelling problems focusing on the emission fields of tracers or pollutants. First, in order to estimate the emission inventories of carbon monoxide over France, in-situ stations which are impacted by the representativeness errors are used. A sub-grid model is introduced and coupled with a 4D-Var to reduce the representativeness error. Indeed, the results of inverse modelling showed that the 4D-Var routine was not fit to handle the representativeness issues. The coupled data assimilation system led to a much better representation of the CO concentration variability, with a significant improvement of statistical indicators, and more consistent estimation of the CO emission inventory. Second, the evaluation of the potential of the IMS (International Monitoring System) radionuclide network is performed for the inversion of an accidental source. In order to assess the performance of the global network, a multi-scale adaptive grid is optimised using a criterion based on degrees of freedom for the signal (DFS). The results show that several specific regions remain poorly observed by the IMS network. Finally, the inversion of the surface fluxes of Volatile Organic Compounds

  19. A Novel Approach to Implement Takagi-Sugeno Fuzzy Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chia-Wen; Tao, Chin-Wang

    2017-09-01

    This paper proposes new algorithms based on the fuzzy c-regressing model algorithm for Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy modeling of the complex nonlinear systems. A fuzzy c-regression state model (FCRSM) algorithm is a T-S fuzzy model in which the functional antecedent and the state-space-model-type consequent are considered with the available input-output data. The antecedent and consequent forms of the proposed FCRSM consists mainly of two advantages: one is that the FCRSM has low computation load due to only one input variable is considered in the antecedent part; another is that the unknown system can be modeled to not only the polynomial form but also the state-space form. Moreover, the FCRSM can be extended to FCRSM-ND and FCRSM-Free algorithms. An algorithm FCRSM-ND is presented to find the T-S fuzzy state-space model of the nonlinear system when the input-output data cannot be precollected and an assumed effective controller is available. In the practical applications, the mathematical model of controller may be hard to be obtained. In this case, an online tuning algorithm, FCRSM-FREE, is designed such that the parameters of a T-S fuzzy controller and the T-S fuzzy state model of an unknown system can be online tuned simultaneously. Four numerical simulations are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  20. Systematic approach to verification and validation: High explosive burn models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Scovel, Christina A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-04-16

    Most material models used in numerical simulations are based on heuristics and empirically calibrated to experimental data. For a specific model, key questions are determining its domain of applicability and assessing its relative merits compared to other models. Answering these questions should be a part of model verification and validation (V and V). Here, we focus on V and V of high explosive models. Typically, model developers implemented their model in their own hydro code and use different sets of experiments to calibrate model parameters. Rarely can one find in the literature simulation results for different models of the same experiment. Consequently, it is difficult to assess objectively the relative merits of different models. This situation results in part from the fact that experimental data is scattered through the literature (articles in journals and conference proceedings) and that the printed literature does not allow the reader to obtain data from a figure in electronic form needed to make detailed comparisons among experiments and simulations. In addition, it is very time consuming to set up and run simulations to compare different models over sufficiently many experiments to cover the range of phenomena of interest. The first difficulty could be overcome if the research community were to support an online web based database. The second difficulty can be greatly reduced by automating procedures to set up and run simulations of similar types of experiments. Moreover, automated testing would be greatly facilitated if the data files obtained from a database were in a standard format that contained key experimental parameters as meta-data in a header to the data file. To illustrate our approach to V and V, we have developed a high explosive database (HED) at LANL. It now contains a large number of shock initiation experiments. Utilizing the header information in a data file from HED, we have written scripts to generate an input file for a hydro code

  1. A Composite Modelling Approach to Decision Support by the Use of the CBA-DK Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a decision support system for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The composite modelling approach, COSIMA, combines a cost-benefit analysis by use of the CBA-DK model with multi-criteria analysis applying the AHP and SMARTER techniques. The modelling uncertaintie...

  2. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  3. Innovation Networks New Approaches in Modelling and Analyzing

    CERN Document Server

    Pyka, Andreas

    2009-01-01

    The science of graphs and networks has become by now a well-established tool for modelling and analyzing a variety of systems with a large number of interacting components. Starting from the physical sciences, applications have spread rapidly to the natural and social sciences, as well as to economics, and are now further extended, in this volume, to the concept of innovations, viewed broadly. In an abstract, systems-theoretical approach, innovation can be understood as a critical event which destabilizes the current state of the system, and results in a new process of self-organization leading to a new stable state. The contributions to this anthology address different aspects of the relationship between innovation and networks. The various chapters incorporate approaches in evolutionary economics, agent-based modeling, social network analysis and econophysics and explore the epistemic tension between insights into economics and society-related processes, and the insights into new forms of complex dynamics.

  4. Research on teacher education programs: logic model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Xiaoxia A; Poon, Rebecca C; Nunes, Nicole L; Stone, Elisa M

    2013-02-01

    Teacher education programs in the United States face increasing pressure to demonstrate their effectiveness through pupils' learning gains in classrooms where program graduates teach. The link between teacher candidates' learning in teacher education programs and pupils' learning in K-12 classrooms implicit in the policy discourse suggests a one-to-one correspondence. However, the logical steps leading from what teacher candidates have learned in their programs to what they are doing in classrooms that may contribute to their pupils' learning are anything but straightforward. In this paper, we argue that the logic model approach from scholarship on evaluation can enhance research on teacher education by making explicit the logical links between program processes and intended outcomes. We demonstrate the usefulness of the logic model approach through our own work on designing a longitudinal study that focuses on examining the process and impact of an undergraduate mathematics and science teacher education program. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  6. An evaluation of the Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for use with pseudo-replicated count data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toribo, S.G.; Gray, B.R.; Liang, S.

    2011-01-01

    The N-mixture model proposed by Royle in 2004 may be used to approximate the abundance and detection probability of animal species in a given region. In 2006, Royle and Dorazio discussed the advantages of using a Bayesian approach in modelling animal abundance and occurrence using a hierarchical N-mixture model. N-mixture models assume replication on sampling sites, an assumption that may be violated when the site is not closed to changes in abundance during the survey period or when nominal replicates are defined spatially. In this paper, we studied the robustness of a Bayesian approach to fitting the N-mixture model for pseudo-replicated count data. Our simulation results showed that the Bayesian estimates for abundance and detection probability are slightly biased when the actual detection probability is small and are sensitive to the presence of extra variability within local sites.

  7. DISCRETE LATTICE ELEMENT APPROACH FOR ROCK FAILURE MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijo Nikolić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the ‘discrete lattice model’, or, simply, the ‘lattice model’, developed for rock failure modeling. The main difficulties in numerical modeling, namely, those related to complex crack initiations and multiple crack propagations, their coalescence under the influence of natural disorder, and heterogeneities, are overcome using the approach presented in this paper. The lattice model is constructed as an assembly of Timoshenko beams, representing the cohesive links between the grains of the material, which are described by Voronoi polygons. The kinematics of the Timoshenko beams are enhanced by the embedded strong discontinuities in their axial and transversal directions so as to provide failure modes I, II, and III. The model presented is suitable for meso-scale rock simulations. The representative numerical simulations, in both 2D and 3D settings, are provided in order to illustrate the model’s capabilities.

  8. Computer Modeling of Violent Intent: A Content Analysis Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Mcgrath, Liam R.; Bell, Eric B.

    2014-01-03

    We present a computational approach to modeling the intent of a communication source representing a group or an individual to engage in violent behavior. Our aim is to identify and rank aspects of radical rhetoric that are endogenously related to violent intent to predict the potential for violence as encoded in written or spoken language. We use correlations between contentious rhetoric and the propensity for violent behavior found in documents from radical terrorist and non-terrorist groups and individuals to train and evaluate models of violent intent. We then apply these models to unseen instances of linguistic behavior to detect signs of contention that have a positive correlation with violent intent factors. Of particular interest is the application of violent intent models to social media, such as Twitter, that have proved to serve as effective channels in furthering sociopolitical change.

  9. A fuzzy approach to the Weighted Overlap Dominance model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franco de los Rios, Camilo Andres; Hougaard, Jens Leth; Nielsen, Kurt

    2013-01-01

    Decision support models are required to handle the various aspects of multi-criteria decision problems in order to help the individual understand its possible solutions. In this sense, such models have to be capable of aggregating and exploiting different types of measurements and evaluations...... in an interactive way, where input data can take the form of uniquely-graded or interval-valued information. Here we explore the Weighted Overlap Dominance (WOD) model from a fuzzy perspective and its outranking approach to decision support and multidimensional interval analysis. Firstly, imprecision measures...... are introduced for characterizing the type of uncertainty being expressed by intervals, examining at the same time how the WOD model handles both non-interval as well as interval data, and secondly, relevance degrees are proposed for obtaining a ranking over the alternatives. Hence, a complete methodology...

  10. A reservoir simulation approach for modeling of naturally fractured reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Mohammadi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In this investigation, the Warren and Root model proposed for the simulation of naturally fractured reservoir was improved. A reservoir simulation approach was used to develop a 2D model of a synthetic oil reservoir. Main rock properties of each gridblock were defined for two different types of gridblocks called matrix and fracture gridblocks. These two gridblocks were different in porosity and permeability values which were higher for fracture gridblocks compared to the matrix gridblocks. This model was solved using the implicit finite difference method. Results showed an improvement in the Warren and Root model especially in region 2 of the semilog plot of pressure drop versus time, which indicated a linear transition zone with no inflection point as predicted by other investigators. Effects of fracture spacing, fracture permeability, fracture porosity, matrix permeability and matrix porosity on the behavior of a typical naturally fractured reservoir were also presented.

  11. Fibroblast motility on substrates with different rigidities: modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gracheva, Maria; Dokukina, Irina

    2009-03-01

    We develop a discrete model for cell locomotion on substrates with different rigidities and simulate experiments described in Lo, Wang, Dembo, Wang (2000) ``Cell movement is guided by the rigidity of the substrate'', Biophys. J. 79: 144-152. In these experiments fibroblasts were planted on a substrate with a step rigidity and showed preference for locomotion over stiffer side of the substrate when approaches the boundary between the soft and the stiff sides of the substrate. The model reproduces experimentally observed behavior of fibroblasts. In particular, we are able to show with our model how cell characteristics (such as cell length, shape, area and speed) change during cell crawling through the ``soft-stiff'' substrate boundary. Also, our model suggests the temporary increase of both cell speed and area in that very moment when cell leaves soft side of substrate.

  12. Modeling fabrication of nuclear components: An integrative approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hench, K.W.

    1996-08-01

    Reduction of the nuclear weapons stockpile and the general downsizing of the nuclear weapons complex has presented challenges for Los Alamos. One is to design an optimized fabrication facility to manufacture nuclear weapon primary components in an environment of intense regulation and shrinking budgets. This dissertation presents an integrative two-stage approach to modeling the casting operation for fabrication of nuclear weapon primary components. The first stage optimizes personnel radiation exposure for the casting operation layout by modeling the operation as a facility layout problem formulated as a quadratic assignment problem. The solution procedure uses an evolutionary heuristic technique. The best solutions to the layout problem are used as input to the second stage - a simulation model that assesses the impact of competing layouts on operational performance. The focus of the simulation model is to determine the layout that minimizes personnel radiation exposures and nuclear material movement, and maximizes the utilization of capacity for finished units.

  13. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2017-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  14. Similarity-based multi-model ensemble approach for 1-15-day advance prediction of monsoon rainfall over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati

    2018-04-01

    The southwest (SW) monsoon season (June, July, August and September) is the major period of rainfall over the Indian region. The present study focuses on the development of a new multi-model ensemble approach based on the similarity criterion (SMME) for the prediction of SW monsoon rainfall in the extended range. This approach is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional MME approaches. In this approach, the training dataset has been selected by matching the present day condition to the archived dataset and days with the most similar conditions were identified and used for training the model. The coefficients thus generated were used for the rainfall prediction. The precipitation forecasts from four general circulation models (GCMs), viz. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and China Meteorological Administration (CMA) have been used for developing the SMME forecasts. The forecasts of 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days were generated using the newly developed approach for each pentad of June-September during the years 2008-2013 and the skill of the model was analysed using verification scores, viz. equitable skill score (ETS), mean absolute error (MAE), Pearson's correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency index. Statistical analysis of SMME forecasts shows superior forecast skill compared to the conventional MME and the individual models for all the pentads, viz. 1-5, 6-10 and 11-15 days.

  15. THE SIGNAL APPROACH TO MODELLING THE BALANCE OF PAYMENT CRISIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers and presents synthesis of theoretical models of balance of payment crisis and investigates the most effective ways to model the crisis in Ukraine. For mathematical formalization of balance of payment crisis, comparative analysis of the effectiveness of different calculation methods of Exchange Market Pressure Index was performed. A set of indicators that signal the growing likelihood of balance of payments crisis was defined using signal approach. With the help of minimization function thresholds indicators were selected, the crossing of which signalize increase in the probability of balance of payment crisis.

  16. Risk Modeling Approaches in Terms of Volatility Banking Transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelica Cucşa (Stratulat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The inseparability of risk and banking activity is one demonstrated ever since banking systems, the importance of the topic being presend in current life and future equally in the development of banking sector. Banking sector development is done in the context of the constraints of nature and number of existing risks and those that may arise, and serves as limiting the risk of banking activity. We intend to develop approaches to analyse risk through mathematical models by also developing a model for the Romanian capital market 10 active trading picks that will test investor reaction in controlled and uncontrolled conditions of risk aggregated with harmonised factors.

  17. Modeling software with finite state machines a practical approach

    CERN Document Server

    Wagner, Ferdinand; Wagner, Thomas; Wolstenholme, Peter

    2006-01-01

    Modeling Software with Finite State Machines: A Practical Approach explains how to apply finite state machines to software development. It provides a critical analysis of using finite state machines as a foundation for executable specifications to reduce software development effort and improve quality. This book discusses the design of a state machine and of a system of state machines. It also presents a detailed analysis of development issues relating to behavior modeling with design examples and design rules for using finite state machines. This volume describes a coherent and well-tested fr

  18. Surrogate based approaches to parameter inference in ocean models

    KAUST Repository

    Knio, Omar

    2016-01-06

    This talk discusses the inference of physical parameters using model surrogates. Attention is focused on the use of sampling schemes to build suitable representations of the dependence of the model response on uncertain input data. Non-intrusive spectral projections and regularized regressions are used for this purpose. A Bayesian inference formalism is then applied to update the uncertain inputs based on available measurements or observations. To perform the update, we consider two alternative approaches, based on the application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods or of adjoint-based optimization techniques. We outline the implementation of these techniques to infer dependence of wind drag, bottom drag, and internal mixing coefficients.

  19. Understanding Gulf War Illness: An Integrative Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    high-order diffusion imaging in a rat model of Gulf War Illness. §These authors contributed equally to the work. Brain Behavior and Immunity. pii...astrocyte specific transcriptome responses to neurotoxicity. §These authors contributed equally to the work. Submitted for Internal CDC-NIOSH...Antagonist: Evaluation of Beneficial Effects for Gulf War Illness 4) GW160116 (Nathanson) Genomics approach to find gender specific mechanisms of GWI

  20. An Approach for Modeling and Formalizing SOA Design Patterns

    OpenAIRE

    Tounsi , Imen; Hadj Kacem , Mohamed; Hadj Kacem , Ahmed; Drira , Khalil

    2013-01-01

    11 pages; International audience; Although design patterns has become increasingly popular, most of them are presented in an informal way, which can give rise to ambiguity and may lead to their incorrect usage. Patterns proposed by the SOA design pattern community are described with informal visual notations. Modeling SOA design patterns with a standard formal notation contributes to avoid misunderstanding by software architects and helps endowing design methods with refinement approaches for...