Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zurell, Damaris; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pagel, Jörn; Cabral, Juliano S; Münkemüller, Tamara; Gravel, Dominique; Dullinger, Stefan; Normand, Signe; Schiffers, Katja H; Moore, Kara A; Zimmermann, Niklaus E

2016-08-01

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches

Expanding Model Independent Approaches for Measuring the CKM angle $\\gamma$ at LHCb

CERN Multimedia

Prouve, Claire

2017-01-01

Model independent approaches to measuring the CKM angle $\\gamma$ in $B\\rightarrow DK$ decays at LHCb are explored. In particular, we consider the case where the $D$ meson decays into a final state with four hadrons. Using four-body final states such as $\\pi^+ \\pi^- \\pi^+ \\pi^-$, $K^+ \\pi^- \\pi^+ \\pi^-$ and $K^+ K^- \\pi^+ \\pi^-$ in addition to traditional 2 and 3 body states and has the potential to significantly improve to the overall constraint on $\\gamma$. There is a significant systematic uncertainty associated with modelling the complex phase of the $D$ decay amplitude across the five-dimensional phase space of the four body decay. It is therefore important to replace these model-dependent quantities with model-independent parameters as input for the $\\gamma$ measurement. These model independent parameters have been measured using quantum-correlated $\\psi(3770) \\rightarrow D^0 \\overline{D^0}$ decays collected by the CLEO-c experiment, and, for $D\\rightarrow K^+ \\pi^- \\pi^+ \\pi^-$, with $D^0-\\overline{D^0...

A Systematic Approach to Determining the Identifiability of Multistage Carcinogenesis Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Brouwer, Andrew F; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C

2017-07-01

Multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models of carcinogenesis are continuous-time Markov process models often used to relate cancer incidence to biological mechanism. Identifiability analysis determines what model parameter combinations can, theoretically, be estimated from given data. We use a systematic approach, based on differential algebra methods traditionally used for deterministic ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, to determine identifiable combinations for a generalized subclass of MSCE models with any number of preinitation stages and one clonal expansion. Additionally, we determine the identifiable combinations of the generalized MSCE model with up to four clonal expansion stages, and conjecture the results for any number of clonal expansion stages. The results improve upon previous work in a number of ways and provide a framework to find the identifiable combinations for further variations on the MSCE models. Finally, our approach, which takes advantage of the Kolmogorov backward equations for the probability generating functions of the Markov process, demonstrates that identifiability methods used in engineering and mathematics for systems of ODEs can be applied to continuous-time Markov processes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Final Technical Report: "Representing Endogenous Technological Change in Climate Policy Models: General Equilibrium Approaches"

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ian Sue Wing

2006-04-18

The research supported by this award pursued three lines of inquiry: (1) The construction of dynamic general equilibrium models to simulate the accumulation and substitution of knowledge, which has resulted in the preparation and submission of several papers: (a) A submitted pedagogic paper which clarifies the structure and operation of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (C.2), and a review article in press which develops a taxonomy for understanding the representation of technical change in economic and engineering models for climate policy analysis (B.3). (b) A paper which models knowledge directly as a homogeneous factor, and demonstrates that inter-sectoral reallocation of knowledge is the key margin of adjustment which enables induced technical change to lower the costs of climate policy (C.1). (c) An empirical paper which estimates the contribution of embodied knowledge to aggregate energy intensity in the U.S. (C.3), followed by a companion article which embeds these results within a CGE model to understand the degree to which autonomous energy efficiency improvement (AEEI) is attributable to technical change as opposed to sub-sectoral shifts in industrial composition (C.4) (d) Finally, ongoing theoretical work to characterize the precursors and implications of the response of innovation to emission limits (E.2). (2) Data development and simulation modeling to understand how the characteristics of discrete energy supply technologies determine their succession in response to emission limits when they are embedded within a general equilibrium framework. This work has produced two peer-reviewed articles which are currently in press (B.1 and B.2). (3) Empirical investigation of trade as an avenue for the transmission of technological change to developing countries, and its implications for leakage, which has resulted in an econometric study which is being revised for submission to a journal (E.1). As work commenced on this topic, the U.S. withdrawal

Repository documentation rethought. A comprehensive approach from untreated waste to waste packages for final disposal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anthofer, Anton Philipp; Schubert, Johannes [VPC GmbH, Dresden (Germany)

2017-11-15

The German Act on Reorganization of Responsibility for Nuclear Disposal (Entsorgungsuebergangsgesetz (EntsorgUebG)) adopted in June 2017 provides the energy utilities with the new option of transferring responsibility for their waste packages to the Federal Government. This is conditional on the waste packages being approved for delivery to the Konrad final repository. A comprehensive approach starts with the dismantling of nuclear facilities and extends from waste disposal and packaging planning to final repository documentation. Waste package quality control measures are planned and implemented as early as in the process qualification stage so that the production of waste packages that are suitable for final deposition can be ensured. Optimization of cask and loading configuration can save container and repository volume. Workflow planning also saves time, expenditure and exposure time for personnel at the facilities. VPC has evaluated this experience and developed it into a comprehensive approach.

A nonlinear optimal control approach to stabilization of a macroeconomic development model

Science.gov (United States)

Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Sarno, D.

2017-11-01

A nonlinear optimal (H-infinity) control approach is proposed for the problem of stabilization of the dynamics of a macroeconomic development model that is known as the Grossman-Helpman model of endogenous product cycles. The dynamics of the macroeconomic development model is divided in two parts. The first one describes economic activities in a developed country and the second part describes variation of economic activities in a country under development which tries to modify its production so as to serve the needs of the developed country. The article shows that through control of the macroeconomic model of the developed country, one can finally control the dynamics of the economy in the country under development. The control method through which this is achieved is the nonlinear H-infinity control. The macroeconomic model for the country under development undergoes approximate linearization round a temporary operating point. This is defined at each time instant by the present value of the system's state vector and the last value of the control input vector that was exerted on it. The linearization is based on Taylor series expansion and the computation of the associated Jacobian matrices. For the linearized model an H-infinity feedback controller is computed. The controller's gain is calculated by solving an algebraic Riccati equation at each iteration of the control method. The asymptotic stability of the control approach is proven through Lyapunov analysis. This assures that the state variables of the macroeconomic model of the country under development will finally converge to the designated reference values.

A computational approach to compare regression modelling strategies in prediction research.

Science.gov (United States)

Pajouheshnia, Romin; Pestman, Wiebe R; Teerenstra, Steven; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-08-25

It is often unclear which approach to fit, assess and adjust a model will yield the most accurate prediction model. We present an extension of an approach for comparing modelling strategies in linear regression to the setting of logistic regression and demonstrate its application in clinical prediction research. A framework for comparing logistic regression modelling strategies by their likelihoods was formulated using a wrapper approach. Five different strategies for modelling, including simple shrinkage methods, were compared in four empirical data sets to illustrate the concept of a priori strategy comparison. Simulations were performed in both randomly generated data and empirical data to investigate the influence of data characteristics on strategy performance. We applied the comparison framework in a case study setting. Optimal strategies were selected based on the results of a priori comparisons in a clinical data set and the performance of models built according to each strategy was assessed using the Brier score and calibration plots. The performance of modelling strategies was highly dependent on the characteristics of the development data in both linear and logistic regression settings. A priori comparisons in four empirical data sets found that no strategy consistently outperformed the others. The percentage of times that a model adjustment strategy outperformed a logistic model ranged from 3.9 to 94.9 %, depending on the strategy and data set. However, in our case study setting the a priori selection of optimal methods did not result in detectable improvement in model performance when assessed in an external data set. The performance of prediction modelling strategies is a data-dependent process and can be highly variable between data sets within the same clinical domain. A priori strategy comparison can be used to determine an optimal logistic regression modelling strategy for a given data set before selecting a final modelling approach.

Population Modeling Approach to Optimize Crop Harvest Strategy. The Case of Field Tomato.

Science.gov (United States)

Tran, Dinh T; Hertog, Maarten L A T M; Tran, Thi L H; Quyen, Nguyen T; Van de Poel, Bram; Mata, Clara I; Nicolaï, Bart M

2017-01-01

In this study, the aim is to develop a population model based approach to optimize fruit harvesting strategies with regard to fruit quality and its derived economic value. This approach was applied to the case of tomato fruit harvesting under Vietnamese conditions. Fruit growth and development of tomato (cv. "Savior") was monitored in terms of fruit size and color during both the Vietnamese winter and summer growing seasons. A kinetic tomato fruit growth model was applied to quantify biological fruit-to-fruit variation in terms of their physiological maturation. This model was successfully calibrated. Finally, the model was extended to translate the fruit-to-fruit variation at harvest into the economic value of the harvested crop. It can be concluded that a model based approach to the optimization of harvest date and harvest frequency with regard to economic value of the crop as such is feasible. This approach allows growers to optimize their harvesting strategy by harvesting the crop at more uniform maturity stages meeting the stringent retail demands for homogeneous high quality product. The total farm profit would still depend on the impact a change in harvesting strategy might have on related expenditures. This model based harvest optimisation approach can be easily transferred to other fruit and vegetable crops improving homogeneity of the postharvest product streams.

Mine-by experiment final design report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Read, R.S.; Martin, C.D.

1991-12-01

The Underground Research Laboratory (URL) Mine-by Experiment is designed to provide information on rock mass response to excavation that will be used to assess important aspects of the design of a nuclear fuel waste disposal vault in a granitic pluton. The final experiment design is the result of a multidisciplinary approach, drawing on experience gained at other sites as well as the URL, and using both internal expertise and the external consultants. The final experiment design, including details on characterization, construction, instrumentation, and numerical modelling, is presented along with final design drawings

Numerical modeling of axi-symmetrical cold forging process by ``Pseudo Inverse Approach''

Science.gov (United States)

Halouani, A.; Li, Y. M.; Abbes, B.; Guo, Y. Q.

2011-05-01

The incremental approach is widely used for the forging process modeling, it gives good strain and stress estimation, but it is time consuming. A fast Inverse Approach (IA) has been developed for the axi-symmetric cold forging modeling [1-2]. This approach exploits maximum the knowledge of the final part's shape and the assumptions of proportional loading and simplified tool actions make the IA simulation very fast. The IA is proved very useful for the tool design and optimization because of its rapidity and good strain estimation. However, the assumptions mentioned above cannot provide good stress estimation because of neglecting the loading history. A new approach called "Pseudo Inverse Approach" (PIA) was proposed by Batoz, Guo et al.. [3] for the sheet forming modeling, which keeps the IA's advantages but gives good stress estimation by taking into consideration the loading history. Our aim is to adapt the PIA for the cold forging modeling in this paper. The main developments in PIA are resumed as follows: A few intermediate configurations are generated for the given tools' positions to consider the deformation history; the strain increment is calculated by the inverse method between the previous and actual configurations. An incremental algorithm of the plastic integration is used in PIA instead of the total constitutive law used in the IA. An example is used to show the effectiveness and limitations of the PIA for the cold forging process modeling.

A Cluster-based Approach Towards Detecting and Modeling Network Dictionary Attacks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Tajari Siahmarzkooh

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we provide an approach to detect network dictionary attacks using a data set collected as flows based on which a clustered graph is resulted. These flows provide an aggregated view of the network traffic in which the exchanged packets in the network are considered so that more internally connected nodes would be clustered. We show that dictionary attacks could be detected through some parameters namely the number and the weight of clusters in time series and their evolution over the time. Additionally, the Markov model based on the average weight of clusters,will be also created. Finally, by means of our suggested model, we demonstrate that artificial clusters of the flows are created for normal and malicious traffic. The results of the proposed approach on CAIDA 2007 data set suggest a high accuracy for the model and, therefore, it provides a proper method for detecting the dictionary attack.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja E. M.

2015-11-21

Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models.

Science.gov (United States)

Boas, Sonja E M; Navarro Jimenez, Maria I; Merks, Roeland M H; Blom, Joke G

2015-11-21

Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such 'black-box' models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all 'black-box' models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

Development Of Robust IFE Laser Mirrors and Multi-Scale Modeling Of Pulsed Radiation Effects. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghoniem, Nasr M.

2009-01-01

The following has been achieved: (1) Final design of a Deformable Grazing Incidence Mirror, (2) Formulation of a new approach to model surface roughening under laser illumination, and (3) Modeling of radiation hardening under IFE conditions. We discuss here progress made in each one of these areas. The objectives of the Grazing Incidence Metal Mirror (GIMM) are: (1) to reflect the incident laser beam into the direction of the target; (2) to focus the incident beam directly onto the target (3) to withstand the thermomechanical and damage induced by laser beams; (4) to correct the reflective surface so that the focus is permanently on the target; (5) to have a full range of motion so it can be placed anywhere relative to the target. The design was described in our progress report of the period August 15, 2003 through April 15, 2004. In the following, we describe further improvements of the final design.

Modeling of delays in PKPD: classical approaches and a tutorial for delay differential equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Gilbert; Krzyzanski, Wojciech; Pérez-Ruixo, Juan Jose; Schropp, Johannes

2014-08-01

In pharmacokinetics/pharmacodynamics (PKPD) the measured response is often delayed relative to drug administration, individuals in a population have a certain lifespan until they maturate or the change of biomarkers does not immediately affects the primary endpoint. The classical approach in PKPD is to apply transit compartment models (TCM) based on ordinary differential equations to handle such delays. However, an alternative approach to deal with delays are delay differential equations (DDE). DDEs feature additional flexibility and properties, realize more complex dynamics and can complementary be used together with TCMs. We introduce several delay based PKPD models and investigate mathematical properties of general DDE based models, which serve as subunits in order to build larger PKPD models. Finally, we review current PKPD software with respect to the implementation of DDEs for PKPD analysis.

The place of quantitative energy models in a prospective approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taverdet-Popiolek, N.

2009-01-01

Futurology above all depends on having the right mind set. Gaston Berger summarizes the prospective approach in 5 five main thrusts: prepare for the distant future, be open-minded (have a systems and multidisciplinary approach), carry out in-depth analyzes (draw out actors which are really determinant or the future, as well as established shed trends), take risks (imagine risky but flexible projects) and finally think about humanity, futurology being a technique at the service of man to help him build a desirable future. On the other hand, forecasting is based on quantified models so as to deduce 'conclusions' about the future. In the field of energy, models are used to draw up scenarios which allow, for instance, measuring medium or long term effects of energy policies on greenhouse gas emissions or global welfare. Scenarios are shaped by the model's inputs (parameters, sets of assumptions) and outputs. Resorting to a model or projecting by scenario is useful in a prospective approach as it ensures coherence for most of the variables that have been identified through systems analysis and that the mind on its own has difficulty to grasp. Interpretation of each scenario must be carried out in the light o the underlying framework of assumptions (the backdrop), developed during the prospective stage. When the horizon is far away (very long-term), the worlds imagined by the futurologist contain breaks (technological, behavioural and organizational) which are hard to integrate into the models. It is here that the main limit for the use of models in futurology is located. (author)

A probabilistic multi objective CLSC model with Genetic algorithm-ε_Constraint approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alireza TaheriMoghadam

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper an uncertain multi objective closed-loop supply chain is developed. The first objective function is maximizing the total profit. The second objective function is minimizing the use of row materials. In the other word, the second objective function is maximizing the amount of remanufacturing and recycling. Genetic algorithm is used for optimization and for finding the pareto optimal line, Epsilon-constraint method is used. Finally a numerical example is solved with proposed approach and performance of the model is evaluated in different sizes. The results show that this approach is effective and useful for managerial decisions.

Multiscale approach for the construction of equilibrated all-atom models of a poly(ethylene glycol)-based hydrogel

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xianfeng; Murthy, N. Sanjeeva; Becker, Matthew L.; Latour, Robert A.

2016-01-01

A multiscale modeling approach is presented for the efficient construction of an equilibrated all-atom model of a cross-linked poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG)-based hydrogel using the all-atom polymer consistent force field (PCFF). The final equilibrated all-atom model was built with a systematic simulation toolset consisting of three consecutive parts: (1) building a global cross-linked PEG-chain network at experimentally determined cross-link density using an on-lattice Monte Carlo method based on the bond fluctuation model, (2) recovering the local molecular structure of the network by transitioning from the lattice model to an off-lattice coarse-grained (CG) model parameterized from PCFF, followed by equilibration using high performance molecular dynamics methods, and (3) recovering the atomistic structure of the network by reverse mapping from the equilibrated CG structure, hydrating the structure with explicitly represented water, followed by final equilibration using PCFF parameterization. The developed three-stage modeling approach has application to a wide range of other complex macromolecular hydrogel systems, including the integration of peptide, protein, and/or drug molecules as side-chains within the hydrogel network for the incorporation of bioactivity for tissue engineering, regenerative medicine, and drug delivery applications. PMID:27013229

Report on Approaches to Database Translation. Final Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Gallagher, Leonard; Salazar, Sandra

This report describes approaches to database translation (i.e., transferring data and data definitions from a source, either a database management system (DBMS) or a batch file, to a target DBMS), and recommends a method for representing the data structures of newly-proposed network and relational data models in a form suitable for database…

Vector-model-supported approach in prostate plan optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Eva Sau Fan; Wu, Vincent Wing Cheung; Harris, Benjamin; Lehman, Margot; Pryor, David; Chan, Lawrence Wing Chi

2017-01-01

Lengthy time consumed in traditional manual plan optimization can limit the use of step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiotherapy/volumetric-modulated radiotherapy (S&S IMRT/VMAT). A vector model base, retrieving similar radiotherapy cases, was developed with respect to the structural and physiologic features extracted from the Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) files. Planning parameters were retrieved from the selected similar reference case and applied to the test case to bypass the gradual adjustment of planning parameters. Therefore, the planning time spent on the traditional trial-and-error manual optimization approach in the beginning of optimization could be reduced. Each S&S IMRT/VMAT prostate reference database comprised 100 previously treated cases. Prostate cases were replanned with both traditional optimization and vector-model-supported optimization based on the oncologists' clinical dose prescriptions. A total of 360 plans, which consisted of 30 cases of S&S IMRT, 30 cases of 1-arc VMAT, and 30 cases of 2-arc VMAT plans including first optimization and final optimization with/without vector-model-supported optimization, were compared using the 2-sided t-test and paired Wilcoxon signed rank test, with a significance level of 0.05 and a false discovery rate of less than 0.05. For S&S IMRT, 1-arc VMAT, and 2-arc VMAT prostate plans, there was a significant reduction in the planning time and iteration with vector-model-supported optimization by almost 50%. When the first optimization plans were compared, 2-arc VMAT prostate plans had better plan quality than 1-arc VMAT plans. The volume receiving 35 Gy in the femoral head for 2-arc VMAT plans was reduced with the vector-model-supported optimization compared with the traditional manual optimization approach. Otherwise, the quality of plans from both approaches was comparable. Vector-model-supported optimization was shown to offer much shortened planning time and iteration

Vector-model-supported approach in prostate plan optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Eva Sau Fan [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane (Australia); Department of Health Technology and Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (Hong Kong); Wu, Vincent Wing Cheung [Department of Health Technology and Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (Hong Kong); Harris, Benjamin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane (Australia); Lehman, Margot; Pryor, David [Department of Radiation Oncology, Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane (Australia); School of Medicine, University of Queensland (Australia); Chan, Lawrence Wing Chi, E-mail: wing.chi.chan@polyu.edu.hk [Department of Health Technology and Informatics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (Hong Kong)

2017-07-01

Lengthy time consumed in traditional manual plan optimization can limit the use of step-and-shoot intensity-modulated radiotherapy/volumetric-modulated radiotherapy (S&S IMRT/VMAT). A vector model base, retrieving similar radiotherapy cases, was developed with respect to the structural and physiologic features extracted from the Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) files. Planning parameters were retrieved from the selected similar reference case and applied to the test case to bypass the gradual adjustment of planning parameters. Therefore, the planning time spent on the traditional trial-and-error manual optimization approach in the beginning of optimization could be reduced. Each S&S IMRT/VMAT prostate reference database comprised 100 previously treated cases. Prostate cases were replanned with both traditional optimization and vector-model-supported optimization based on the oncologists' clinical dose prescriptions. A total of 360 plans, which consisted of 30 cases of S&S IMRT, 30 cases of 1-arc VMAT, and 30 cases of 2-arc VMAT plans including first optimization and final optimization with/without vector-model-supported optimization, were compared using the 2-sided t-test and paired Wilcoxon signed rank test, with a significance level of 0.05 and a false discovery rate of less than 0.05. For S&S IMRT, 1-arc VMAT, and 2-arc VMAT prostate plans, there was a significant reduction in the planning time and iteration with vector-model-supported optimization by almost 50%. When the first optimization plans were compared, 2-arc VMAT prostate plans had better plan quality than 1-arc VMAT plans. The volume receiving 35 Gy in the femoral head for 2-arc VMAT plans was reduced with the vector-model-supported optimization compared with the traditional manual optimization approach. Otherwise, the quality of plans from both approaches was comparable. Vector-model-supported optimization was shown to offer much shortened planning time and iteration

Model-Assisted Estimation of Tropical Forest Biomass Change: A Comparison of Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikolai Knapp

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Monitoring of changes in forest biomass requires accurate transfer functions between remote sensing-derived changes in canopy height (ΔH and the actual changes in aboveground biomass (ΔAGB. Different approaches can be used to accomplish this task: direct approaches link ΔH directly to ΔAGB, while indirect approaches are based on deriving AGB stock estimates for two points in time and calculating the difference. In some studies, direct approaches led to more accurate estimations, while, in others, indirect approaches led to more accurate estimations. It is unknown how each approach performs under different conditions and over the full range of possible changes. Here, we used a forest model (FORMIND to generate a large dataset (>28,000 ha of natural and disturbed forest stands over time. Remote sensing of forest height was simulated on these stands to derive canopy height models for each time step. Three approaches for estimating ΔAGB were compared: (i the direct approach; (ii the indirect approach and (iii an enhanced direct approach (dir+tex, using ΔH in combination with canopy texture. Total prediction accuracies of the three approaches measured as root mean squared errors (RMSE were RMSEdirect = 18.7 t ha−1, RMSEindirect = 12.6 t ha−1 and RMSEdir+tex = 12.4 t ha−1. Further analyses revealed height-dependent biases in the ΔAGB estimates of the direct approach, which did not occur with the other approaches. Finally, the three approaches were applied on radar-derived (TanDEM-X canopy height changes on Barro Colorado Island (Panama. The study demonstrates the potential of forest modeling for improving the interpretation of changes observed in remote sensing data and for comparing different methodologies.

A Deep Learning based Approach to Reduced Order Modeling of Fluids using LSTM Neural Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mohan, Arvind; Gaitonde, Datta

2017-11-01

Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) can be used as surrogates to prohibitively expensive simulations to model flow behavior for long time periods. ROM is predicated on extracting dominant spatio-temporal features of the flow from CFD or experimental datasets. We explore ROM development with a deep learning approach, which comprises of learning functional relationships between different variables in large datasets for predictive modeling. Although deep learning and related artificial intelligence based predictive modeling techniques have shown varied success in other fields, such approaches are in their initial stages of application to fluid dynamics. Here, we explore the application of the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to sequential data, specifically to predict the time coefficients of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) modes of the flow for future timesteps, by training it on data at previous timesteps. The approach is demonstrated by constructing ROMs of several canonical flows. Additionally, we show that statistical estimates of stationarity in the training data can indicate a priori how amenable a given flow-field is to this approach. Finally, the potential and limitations of deep learning based ROM approaches will be elucidated and further developments discussed.

Innovative approaches to inertial confinement fusion reactors: Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bourque, R.F.; Schultz, K.R.

1986-11-01

Three areas of innovative approaches to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) reactor design are given. First, issues pertaining to the Cascade reactor concept are discussed. Then, several innovative concepts are presented which attempt to directly recover the blast energy from a fusion target. Finally, the Turbostar concept for direct recovery of that energy is evaluated. The Cascade issues discussed are combustion of the carbon granules in the event of air ingress, the use of alternate granule materials, and the effect of changes in carbon flow on details of the heat exchanger. Carbon combustion turns out to be a minor problem. Four ICF innovative concepts were considered: a turbine with ablating surfaces, a liquid piston system, a wave generator, and a resonating pump. In the final analysis, none show any real promise. The Turbostar concept of direct recovery is a very interesting idea and appeared technically viable. However, it shows no efficiency gain or any decrease in capital cost compared to reactors with conventional thermal conversion systems. Attempts to improve it by placing a close-in lithium sphere around the target to increase gas generation increased efficiency only slightly. It is concluded that these direct conversion techniques require thermalization of the x-ray and debris energy, and are Carnot limited. They therefore offer no advantage over existing and proposed methods of thermal energy conversion or direct electrical conversion

Uncertainty Aware Structural Topology Optimization Via a Stochastic Reduced Order Model Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Aguilo, Miguel A.; Warner, James E.

2017-01-01

This work presents a stochastic reduced order modeling strategy for the quantification and propagation of uncertainties in topology optimization. Uncertainty aware optimization problems can be computationally complex due to the substantial number of model evaluations that are necessary to accurately quantify and propagate uncertainties. This computational complexity is greatly magnified if a high-fidelity, physics-based numerical model is used for the topology optimization calculations. Stochastic reduced order model (SROM) methods are applied here to effectively 1) alleviate the prohibitive computational cost associated with an uncertainty aware topology optimization problem; and 2) quantify and propagate the inherent uncertainties due to design imperfections. A generic SROM framework that transforms the uncertainty aware, stochastic topology optimization problem into a deterministic optimization problem that relies only on independent calls to a deterministic numerical model is presented. This approach facilitates the use of existing optimization and modeling tools to accurately solve the uncertainty aware topology optimization problems in a fraction of the computational demand required by Monte Carlo methods. Finally, an example in structural topology optimization is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty aware structural topology optimization approach.

A Model-Driven Approach for 3D Modeling of Pylon from Airborne LiDAR Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingquan Li

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Reconstructing three-dimensional model of the pylon from LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging point clouds automatically is one of the key techniques for facilities management GIS system of high-voltage nationwide transmission smart grid. This paper presents a model-driven three-dimensional pylon modeling (MD3DM method using airborne LiDAR data. We start with constructing a parametric model of pylon, based on its actual structure and the characteristics of point clouds data. In this model, a pylon is divided into three parts: pylon legs, pylon body and pylon head. The modeling approach mainly consists of four steps. Firstly, point clouds of individual pylon are detected and segmented from massive high-voltage transmission corridor point clouds automatically. Secondly, an individual pylon is divided into three relatively simple parts in order to reconstruct different parts with different strategies. Its position and direction are extracted by contour analysis of the pylon body in this stage. Thirdly, the geometric features of the pylon head are extracted, from which the head type is derived with a SVM (Support Vector Machine classifier. After that, the head is constructed by seeking corresponding model from pre-build model library. Finally, the body is modeled by fitting the point cloud to planes. Experiment results on several point clouds data sets from China Southern high-voltage nationwide transmission grid from Yunnan Province to Guangdong Province show that the proposed approach can achieve the goal of automatic three-dimensional modeling of the pylon effectively.

Development of generalised model for grate combustion of biomass. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosendahl, L.

2007-02-15

This project has been divided into two main parts, one of which has focused on modelling and one on designing and constructing a grate fired biomass test rig. The modelling effort has been defined due to a need for improved knowledge of the transport and conversion processes within the bed layer for two reasons: 1) to improve emission understanding and reduction measures and 2) to improve boundary conditions for CFD-based furnace modelling. The selected approach has been based on a diffusion coefficient formulation, where conservation equations for the concentration of fuel are solved in a spatially resolved grid, much in the same manner as in a finite volume CFD code. Within this porous layer of fuel, gas flows according to the Ergun equation. The diffusion coefficient links the properties of the fuel to the grate type and vibration mode, and is determined for each combination of fuel, grate and vibration mode. In this work, 3 grates have been tested as well as 4) types of fuel, drinking straw, wood beads, straw pellets and wood pellets. Although much useful information and knowledge has been obtained on transport processes in fuel layers, the model has proved to be less than perfect, and the recommendation is not to continue along this path. New visual data on the motion of straw on vibrating grates indicate that a diffusion governed motion does not very well represent the transport. Furthermore, it is very difficult to obtain the diffusion coefficient in other places than the surface layer of the grate, and it is not likely that this is representative for the motion within the layer. Finally, as the model complexity grows, model turnover time increases to a level where it is comparable to that of the full furnace model. In order to proceed and address the goals of the first paragraph, it is recommended to return to either a walking column approach or even some other, relatively simple method of prediction, and combine this with a form of randomness, to mimic the

Recent developments of the quantum chemical cluster approach for modeling enzyme reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Siegbahn, Per E M; Himo, Fahmi

2009-06-01

The quantum chemical cluster approach for modeling enzyme reactions is reviewed. Recent applications have used cluster models much larger than before which have given new modeling insights. One important and rather surprising feature is the fast convergence with cluster size of the energetics of the reactions. Even for reactions with significant charge separation it has in some cases been possible to obtain full convergence in the sense that dielectric cavity effects from outside the cluster do not contribute to any significant extent. Direct comparisons between quantum mechanics (QM)-only and QM/molecular mechanics (MM) calculations for quite large clusters in a case where the results differ significantly have shown that care has to be taken when using the QM/MM approach where there is strong charge polarization. Insights from the methods used, generally hybrid density functional methods, have also led to possibilities to give reasonable error limits for the results. Examples are finally given from the most extensive study using the cluster model, the one of oxygen formation at the oxygen-evolving complex in photosystem II.

Characterize and Model Final Waste Formulations and Offgas Solids from Thermal Treatment Processes - FY-98 Final Report for LDRD 2349

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kessinger, Glen Frank; Nelson, Lee Orville; Grandy, Jon Drue; Zuck, Larry Douglas; Kong, Peter Chuen Sun; Anderson, Gail

1999-08-01

The purpose of LDRD #2349, Characterize and Model Final Waste Formulations and Offgas Solids from Thermal Treatment Processes, was to develop a set of tools that would allow the user to, based on the chemical composition of a waste stream to be immobilized, predict the durability (leach behavior) of the final waste form and the phase assemblages present in the final waste form. The objectives of the project were: • investigation, testing and selection of thermochemical code • development of auxiliary thermochemical database • synthesis of materials for leach testing • collection of leach data • using leach data for leach model development • thermochemical modeling The progress toward completion of these objectives and a discussion of work that needs to be completed to arrive at a logical finishing point for this project will be presented.

Temperature Buffer Test. Final THM modelling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aakesson, Mattias; Malmberg, Daniel; Boergesson, Lennart; Hernelind, Jan [Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden); Ledesma, Alberto; Jacinto, Abel [UPC, Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain)

2012-01-15

The Temperature Buffer Test (TBT) is a joint project between SKB/ANDRA and supported by ENRESA (modelling) and DBE (instrumentation), which aims at improving the understanding and to model the thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior of buffers made of swelling clay submitted to high temperatures (over 100 deg C) during the water saturation process. The test has been carried out in a KBS-3 deposition hole at Aespoe HRL. It was installed during the spring of 2003. Two heaters (3 m long, 0.6 m diameter) and two buffer arrangements have been investigated: the lower heater was surrounded by bentonite only, whereas the upper heater was surrounded by a composite barrier, with a sand shield between the heater and the bentonite. The test was dismantled and sampled during the winter of 2009/2010. This report presents the final THM modelling which was resumed subsequent to the dismantling operation. The main part of this work has been numerical modelling of the field test. Three different modelling teams have presented several model cases for different geometries and different degree of process complexity. Two different numerical codes, Code{sub B}right and Abaqus, have been used. The modelling performed by UPC-Cimne using Code{sub B}right, has been divided in three subtasks: i) analysis of the response observed in the lower part of the test, by inclusion of a number of considerations: (a) the use of the Barcelona Expansive Model for MX-80 bentonite; (b) updated parameters in the vapour diffusive flow term; (c) the use of a non-conventional water retention curve for MX-80 at high temperature; ii) assessment of a possible relation between the cracks observed in the bentonite blocks in the upper part of TBT, and the cycles of suction and stresses registered in that zone at the start of the experiment; and iii) analysis of the performance, observations and interpretation of the entire test. It was however not possible to carry out a full THM analysis until the end of the test due to

Temperature Buffer Test. Final THM modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aakesson, Mattias; Malmberg, Daniel; Boergesson, Lennart; Hernelind, Jan; Ledesma, Alberto; Jacinto, Abel

2012-01-01

The Temperature Buffer Test (TBT) is a joint project between SKB/ANDRA and supported by ENRESA (modelling) and DBE (instrumentation), which aims at improving the understanding and to model the thermo-hydro-mechanical behavior of buffers made of swelling clay submitted to high temperatures (over 100 deg C) during the water saturation process. The test has been carried out in a KBS-3 deposition hole at Aespoe HRL. It was installed during the spring of 2003. Two heaters (3 m long, 0.6 m diameter) and two buffer arrangements have been investigated: the lower heater was surrounded by bentonite only, whereas the upper heater was surrounded by a composite barrier, with a sand shield between the heater and the bentonite. The test was dismantled and sampled during the winter of 2009/2010. This report presents the final THM modelling which was resumed subsequent to the dismantling operation. The main part of this work has been numerical modelling of the field test. Three different modelling teams have presented several model cases for different geometries and different degree of process complexity. Two different numerical codes, Code B right and Abaqus, have been used. The modelling performed by UPC-Cimne using Code B right, has been divided in three subtasks: i) analysis of the response observed in the lower part of the test, by inclusion of a number of considerations: (a) the use of the Barcelona Expansive Model for MX-80 bentonite; (b) updated parameters in the vapour diffusive flow term; (c) the use of a non-conventional water retention curve for MX-80 at high temperature; ii) assessment of a possible relation between the cracks observed in the bentonite blocks in the upper part of TBT, and the cycles of suction and stresses registered in that zone at the start of the experiment; and iii) analysis of the performance, observations and interpretation of the entire test. It was however not possible to carry out a full THM analysis until the end of the test due to

Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model reliability and identifiability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. C. Winsemius

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Variations of water stocks in the upper Zambezi river basin have been determined by 2 different hydrological modelling approaches. The purpose was to provide preliminary terrestrial storage estimates in the upper Zambezi, which will be compared with estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE in a future study. The first modelling approach is GIS-based, distributed and conceptual (STREAM. The second approach uses Lumped Elementary Watersheds identified and modelled conceptually (LEW. The STREAM model structure has been assessed using GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation a posteriori to determine parameter identifiability. The LEW approach could, in addition, be tested for model structure, because computational efforts of LEW are low. Both models are threshold models, where the non-linear behaviour of the Zambezi river basin is explained by a combination of thresholds and linear reservoirs. The models were forced by time series of gauged and interpolated rainfall. Where available, runoff station data was used to calibrate the models. Ungauged watersheds were generally given the same parameter sets as their neighbouring calibrated watersheds. It appeared that the LEW model structure could be improved by applying GLUE iteratively. Eventually, it led to better identifiability of parameters and consequently a better model structure than the STREAM model. Hence, the final model structure obtained better represents the true hydrology. After calibration, both models show a comparable efficiency in representing discharge. However the LEW model shows a far greater storage amplitude than the STREAM model. This emphasizes the storage uncertainty related to hydrological modelling in data-scarce environments such as the Zambezi river basin. It underlines the need and potential for independent observations of terrestrial storage to enhance our understanding and modelling capacity of the hydrological processes. GRACE

A Fuzzy Modeling Approach to Road Transport with Application to a Case of Spent Nuclear Fuel Transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marseguerra, Marzio; Zio, Enrico; Bianchi, Mauro

2004-01-01

In this paper, we propose a general fuzzy inference approach to building a model of hazardous road transport that relates given traffic, weather, and vehicle-speed conditions to the accident rate. The development of the model is discussed in detail, and its validation is provided with reference to literature data regarding the transport of spent nuclear fuel to its final confinement repository

Technical approach to finalizing sensible soil cleanup levels at the Fernald Environmental Management Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carr, D.; Hertel, B.; Jewett, M.; Janke, R.; Conner, B.

1996-01-01

The remedial strategy for addressing contaminated environmental media was recently finalized for the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) following almost 10 years of detailed technical analysis. The FEMP represents one of the first major nuclear facilities to successfully complete the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) phase of the environmental restoration process. A critical element of this success was the establishment of sensible cleanup levels for contaminated soil and groundwater both on and off the FEMP property. These cleanup levels were derived based upon a strict application of Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) regulations and guidance, coupled with positive input from the regulatory agencies and the local community regarding projected future land uses for the site. The approach for establishing the cleanup levels was based upon a Feasibility Study (FS) strategy that examined a bounding range of viable future land uses for the site. Within each land use, the cost and technical implications of a range of health-protective cleanup levels for the environmental media were analyzed. Technical considerations in driving these cleanup levels included: direct exposure routes to viable human receptors; cross- media impacts to air, surface water, and groundwater; technical practicality of attaining the levels; volume of affected media; impact to sensitive environmental receptors or ecosystems; and cost. This paper will discuss the technical approach used to support the finalization of the cleanup levels for the site. The final cleanup levels provide the last remaining significant piece to the puzzle of establishing a final site-wide remedial strategy for the FEMP, and positions the facility for the expedient completion of site-wide remedial activities

Modelling an industrial anaerobic granular reactor using a multi-scale approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feldman, Hannah; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Ramin, Pedram

2017-01-01

The objective of this paper is to show the results of an industrial project dealing with modelling of anaerobic digesters. A multi-scale mathematical approach is developed to describe reactor hydrodynamics, granule growth/distribution and microbial competition/inhibition for substrate/space within...... the biofilm. The main biochemical and physico-chemical processes in the model are based on the Anaerobic Digestion Model No 1 (ADM1) extended with the fate of phosphorus (P), sulfur (S) and ethanol (Et-OH). Wastewater dynamic conditions are reproduced and data frequency increased using the Benchmark...... simulations show the effects on the overall process performance when operational (pH) and loading (S:COD) conditions are modified. Lastly, the effect of intra-granular precipitation on the overall organic/inorganic distribution is assessed at: 1) different times; and, 2) reactor heights. Finally...

Numerical modelling of diesel spray using the Eulerian multiphase approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vujanović, Milan; Petranović, Zvonimir; Edelbauer, Wilfried; Baleta, Jakov; Duić, Neven

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Numerical model for fuel disintegration was presented. • Fuel liquid and vapour were calculated. • Good agreement with experimental data was shown for various combinations of injection and chamber pressure. - Abstract: This research investigates high pressure diesel fuel injection into the combustion chamber by performing computational simulations using the Euler–Eulerian multiphase approach. Six diesel-like conditions were simulated for which the liquid fuel jet was injected into a pressurised inert environment (100% N 2 ) through a 205 μm nozzle hole. The analysis was focused on the liquid jet and vapour penetration, describing spatial and temporal spray evolution. For this purpose, an Eulerian multiphase model was implemented, variations of the sub-model coefficients were performed, and their impact on the spray formation was investigated. The final set of sub-model coefficients was applied to all operating points. Several simulations of high pressure diesel injections (50, 80, and 120 MPa) combined with different chamber pressures (5.4 and 7.2 MPa) were carried out and results were compared to the experimental data. The predicted results share a similar spray cloud shape for all conditions with the different vapour and liquid penetration length. The liquid penetration is shortened with the increase in chamber pressure, whilst the vapour penetration is more pronounced by elevating the injection pressure. Finally, the results showed good agreement when compared to the measured data, and yielded the correct trends for both the liquid and vapour penetrations under different operating conditions

A Bio-Inspired Model-Based Approach for Context-Aware Post-WIMP Tele-Rehabilitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Víctor López-Jaquero

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Tele-rehabilitation is one of the main domains where Information and Communication Technologies (ICT have been proven useful to move healthcare from care centers to patients’ home. Moreover, patients, especially those carrying out a physical therapy, cannot use a traditional Window, Icon, Menu, Pointer (WIMP system, but they need to interact in a natural way, that is, there is a need to move from WIMP systems to Post-WIMP ones. Moreover, tele-rehabilitation systems should be developed following the context-aware approach, so that they are able to adapt to the patients’ context to provide them with usable and effective therapies. In this work a model-based approach is presented to assist stakeholders in the development of context-aware Post-WIMP tele-rehabilitation systems. It entails three different models: (i a task model for designing the rehabilitation tasks; (ii a context model to facilitate the adaptation of these tasks to the context; and (iii a bio-inspired presentation model to specify thoroughly how such tasks should be performed by the patients. Our proposal overcomes one of the limitations of the model-based approach for the development of context-aware systems supporting the specification of non-functional requirements. Finally, a case study is used to illustrate how this proposal can be put into practice to design a real world rehabilitation task.

Analysis of the Correlation between GDP and the Final Consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Constantin ANGHELACHE

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the results of the researches performed by the author regarding the evolution of Gross Domestic Product. One of the main aspects of GDP analysis is the correlation with the final consumption, an important macroeconomic indicator. The evolution of the Gross Domestic Product is highly influenced by the evolution of the final consumption. To analyze the correlation, the paper proposes the use of the linear regression model, as one of the most appropriate instruments for such scientific approach. The regression model described in the article uses the GDP as resultant variable and the final consumption as factorial variable.

Social Network Analysis and Nutritional Behavior: An Integrated Modeling Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Senior, Alistair M; Lihoreau, Mathieu; Buhl, Jerome; Raubenheimer, David; Simpson, Stephen J

2016-01-01

Animals have evolved complex foraging strategies to obtain a nutritionally balanced diet and associated fitness benefits. Recent research combining state-space models of nutritional geometry with agent-based models (ABMs), show how nutrient targeted foraging behavior can also influence animal social interactions, ultimately affecting collective dynamics and group structures. Here we demonstrate how social network analyses can be integrated into such a modeling framework and provide a practical analytical tool to compare experimental results with theory. We illustrate our approach by examining the case of nutritionally mediated dominance hierarchies. First we show how nutritionally explicit ABMs that simulate the emergence of dominance hierarchies can be used to generate social networks. Importantly the structural properties of our simulated networks bear similarities to dominance networks of real animals (where conflicts are not always directly related to nutrition). Finally, we demonstrate how metrics from social network analyses can be used to predict the fitness of agents in these simulated competitive environments. Our results highlight the potential importance of nutritional mechanisms in shaping dominance interactions in a wide range of social and ecological contexts. Nutrition likely influences social interactions in many species, and yet a theoretical framework for exploring these effects is currently lacking. Combining social network analyses with computational models from nutritional ecology may bridge this divide, representing a pragmatic approach for generating theoretical predictions for nutritional experiments.

Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dale, Michael

2010-09-15

This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

Development of an international safeguards approach to the final disposal of spent fuel in geological repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphey, W.M.; Moran, B.W.; Fattah, A.

1996-01-01

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is currently pursuing development of an international safeguards approach for the final disposal of spent fuel in geological repositories through consultants meetings and through the Program for Development of Safeguards for Final Disposal of Spent Fuel in Geological Repositories (SAGOR). The consultants meetings provide policy guidance to IAEA; SAGOR recommends effective approaches that can be efficiently implemented by IAEA. The SAGOR program, which is a collaboration of eight Member State Support Programs (MSSPs), was initiated in July 1994 and has identified 15 activities in each of three areas (i.e. conditioning facilities, active repositories, and closed repositories) that must be performed to ensure an efficient, yet effective safeguards approach. Two consultants meetings have been held: the first in May 1991 and the last in November 1995. For nuclear materials emplaced in a geological repository, the safeguards objectives were defined to be (1) to detect the diversion of spent fuel, whether concealed or unconcealed, from the repository and (2) to detect undeclared activities of safeguards concern (e.g., tunneling, underground reprocessing, or substitution in containers)

Comparisons of Multilevel Modeling and Structural Equation Modeling Approaches to Actor-Partner Interdependence Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Sehee; Kim, Soyoung

2018-01-01

There are basically two modeling approaches applicable to analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model: the multilevel modeling (hierarchical linear model) and the structural equation modeling. This article explains how to use these two models in analyzing an actor-partner interdependence model and how these two approaches work differently. As an empirical example, marital conflict data were used to analyze an actor-partner interdependence model. The multilevel modeling and the structural equation modeling produced virtually identical estimates for a basic model. However, the structural equation modeling approach allowed more realistic assumptions on measurement errors and factor loadings, rendering better model fit indices.

Medicare Program; Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) and Alternative Payment Model (APM) Incentive Under the Physician Fee Schedule, and Criteria for Physician-Focused Payment Models. Final rule with comment period.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-04

The Medicare Access and CHIP Reauthorization Act of 2015 (MACRA) repeals the Medicare sustainable growth rate (SGR) methodology for updates to the physician fee schedule (PFS) and replaces it with a new approach to payment called the Quality Payment Program that rewards the delivery of high-quality patient care through two avenues: Advanced Alternative Payment Models (Advanced APMs) and the Merit-based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) for eligible clinicians or groups under the PFS. This final rule with comment period establishes incentives for participation in certain alternative payment models (APMs) and includes the criteria for use by the Physician-Focused Payment Model Technical Advisory Committee (PTAC) in making comments and recommendations on physician-focused payment models (PFPMs). Alternative Payment Models are payment approaches, developed in partnership with the clinician community, that provide added incentives to deliver high-quality and cost-efficient care. APMs can apply to a specific clinical condition, a care episode, or a population. This final rule with comment period also establishes the MIPS, a new program for certain Medicare-enrolled practitioners. MIPS will consolidate components of three existing programs, the Physician Quality Reporting System (PQRS), the Physician Value-based Payment Modifier (VM), and the Medicare Electronic Health Record (EHR) Incentive Program for Eligible Professionals (EPs), and will continue the focus on quality, cost, and use of certified EHR technology (CEHRT) in a cohesive program that avoids redundancies. In this final rule with comment period we have rebranded key terminology based on feedback from stakeholders, with the goal of selecting terms that will be more easily identified and understood by our stakeholders.

A Multi-Model Approach for System Diagnosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Bækgaard, Mikkel Ask Buur

2007-01-01

A multi-model approach for system diagnosis is presented in this paper. The relation with fault diagnosis as well as performance validation is considered. The approach is based on testing a number of pre-described models and find which one is the best. It is based on an active approach......,i.e. an auxiliary input to the system is applied. The multi-model approach is applied on a wind turbine system....

Model-free approach to the estimation of radiation hazards. I. Theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaider, M.; Brenner, D.J.

1986-01-01

The experience of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors constitutes to date the major data base for evaluating the effects of low doses of ionizing radiation on human populations. Although numerous analyses have been performed and published concerning this experience, it is clear that no consensus has emerged as to the conclusions that may be drawn to assist in setting realistic radiation protection guidelines. In part this is an inherent consequences of the rather limited amount of data available. In this paper the authors address an equally important problem; namely, the use of arbitrary parametric risk models which have little theoretical foundation, yet almost totally determine the final conclusions drawn. They propose the use of a model-free approach to the estimation of radiation hazards

NUFACTS-nuclear fuel cycle activity simulator: reference manual. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Triplett, M.B.; Waddell, J.D.; Breese, T.A.

1978-01-01

The Nuclear Fuel Cycle Activity Simulator (NUFACTS) is a package of FORTRAN subroutines which facilitate the simulation of a diversity of nuclear power growth scenarios. An approach to modeling the nuclear fuel cycle has been developed that is highly adaptive and capable of addressing a variety of problems. Being a simulation model rather than an optimization model, NUFACTS mimics the events and processes that are characteristic of the nuclear fuel cycle. This approach enables the model user to grasp the modeling approach rather quickly. Within this report descriptions of the model and its components are provided with several emphases. First, a discussion of modeling approach and basic assumptions is provided. Next, instructions are provided for generating data, inputting the data properly, and running the code. Finally, detailed descriptions of individual program element are given as an aid to modifying and extending the present capabilities

Modelling approaches to the dewetting of evaporating thin films of nanoparticle suspensions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thiele, U; Vancea, I; Archer, A J; Robbins, M J; Frastia, L; Stannard, A; Pauliac-Vaujour, E; Martin, C P; Blunt, M O; Moriarty, P J

2009-01-01

We review recent experiments on dewetting thin films of evaporating colloidal nanoparticle suspensions (nanofluids) and discuss several theoretical approaches to describe the ongoing processes including coupled transport and phase changes. These approaches range from microscopic discrete stochastic theories to mesoscopic continuous deterministic descriptions. In particular, we describe (i) a microscopic kinetic Monte Carlo model, (ii) a dynamical density functional theory and (iii) a hydrodynamic thin film model. Models (i) and (ii) are employed to discuss the formation of polygonal networks, spinodal and branched structures resulting from the dewetting of an ultrathin 'postcursor film' that remains behind a mesoscopic dewetting front. We highlight, in particular, the presence of a transverse instability in the evaporative dewetting front, which results in highly branched fingering structures. The subtle interplay of decomposition in the film and contact line motion is discussed. Finally, we discuss a simple thin film model (iii) of the hydrodynamics on the mesoscale. We employ coupled evolution equations for the film thickness profile and mean particle concentration. The model is used to discuss the self-pinning and depinning of a contact line related to the 'coffee-stain' effect. In the course of the review we discuss the advantages and limitations of the different theories, as well as possible future developments and extensions.

Roadmap Modeling and Assessment Approach for Defense Technology System of Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Lu

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Advanced defense technology plays a crucial role in safeguarding national safety and development interests. Aiming to handle the problems of current research and development (R&D management approaches faced with the rocketing complexities of system of systems, the authors propose a novel roadmap modeling and assessment methodology through studying the driving forces of general technology development and analyzing realistic requirements of defense technology management in this article. First, a requirement decomposition framework is designed based on multi-view theories and text-mining tools are used to construct a multi-layer knowledge-flow network model. Second, the contribution rates of requirement elements at different levels are evaluated using a multi-criteria decision-making approach and the node importance is assessed based on the topological structure of multi-layer network. Third, it is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches that illustrative examples of the technology requirements in maritime security strategy investigating and a dual-layer knowledge-flow network consists of patents that belong to the “Coherent Light Generator (CLC” classification from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO database and the related academic papers from Web of Science. Finally, the contributions, potential applications, and drawbacks of this work are discussed and research outlooks are provided.

A final size relation for epidemic models of vector-transmitted diseases

OpenAIRE

Fred Brauer

2017-01-01

We formulate and analyze an age of infection model for epidemics of diseases transmitted by a vector, including the possibility of direct transmission as well. We show how to determine a basic reproduction number. While there is no explicit final size relation as for diseases transmitted directly, we are able to obtain estimates for the final size of the epidemic.

Building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach using relational database environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmood, N.; Burney, S.M.A.

2017-01-01

Everything in this world is encapsulated by space and time fence. Our daily life activities are utterly linked and related with other objects in vicinity. Therefore, a strong relationship exist with our current location, time (including past, present and future) and event through with we are moving as an object also affect our activities in life. Ontology development and its integration with database are vital for the true understanding of the complex systems involving both spatial and temporal dimensions. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework for building spatio-temporal database model based on ontological approach. We have used relational data model for modelling spatio-temporal data content and present our methodology with spatio-temporal ontological accepts and its transformation into spatio-temporal database model. We illustrate the implementation of our conceptual model through a case study related to cultivated land parcel used for agriculture to exhibit the spatio-temporal behaviour of agricultural land and related entities. Moreover, it provides a generic approach for designing spatiotemporal databases based on ontology. The proposed model is capable to understand the ontological and somehow epistemological commitments and to build spatio-temporal ontology and transform it into a spatio-temporal data model. Finally, we highlight the existing and future research challenges. (author)

A Graph-Based Approach for 3D Building Model Reconstruction from Airborne LiDAR Point Clouds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Wu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available 3D building model reconstruction is of great importance for environmental and urban applications. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR is a very useful data source for acquiring detailed geometric and topological information of building objects. In this study, we employed a graph-based method based on hierarchical structure analysis of building contours derived from LiDAR data to reconstruct urban building models. The proposed approach first uses a graph theory-based localized contour tree method to represent the topological structure of buildings, then separates the buildings into different parts by analyzing their topological relationships, and finally reconstructs the building model by integrating all the individual models established through the bipartite graph matching process. Our approach provides a more complete topological and geometrical description of building contours than existing approaches. We evaluated the proposed method by applying it to the Lujiazui region in Shanghai, China, a complex and large urban scene with various types of buildings. The results revealed that complex buildings could be reconstructed successfully with a mean modeling error of 0.32 m. Our proposed method offers a promising solution for 3D building model reconstruction from airborne LiDAR point clouds.

Modelling an industrial anaerobic granular reactor using a multi-scale approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Feldman, H; Flores-Alsina, X; Ramin, P; Kjellberg, K; Jeppsson, U; Batstone, D J; Gernaey, K V

2017-12-01

The objective of this paper is to show the results of an industrial project dealing with modelling of anaerobic digesters. A multi-scale mathematical approach is developed to describe reactor hydrodynamics, granule growth/distribution and microbial competition/inhibition for substrate/space within the biofilm. The main biochemical and physico-chemical processes in the model are based on the Anaerobic Digestion Model No 1 (ADM1) extended with the fate of phosphorus (P), sulfur (S) and ethanol (Et-OH). Wastewater dynamic conditions are reproduced and data frequency increased using the Benchmark Simulation Model No 2 (BSM2) influent generator. All models are tested using two plant data sets corresponding to different operational periods (#D1, #D2). Simulation results reveal that the proposed approach can satisfactorily describe the transformation of organics, nutrients and minerals, the production of methane, carbon dioxide and sulfide and the potential formation of precipitates within the bulk (average deviation between computer simulations and measurements for both #D1, #D2 is around 10%). Model predictions suggest a stratified structure within the granule which is the result of: 1) applied loading rates, 2) mass transfer limitations and 3) specific (bacterial) affinity for substrate. Hence, inerts (X I ) and methanogens (X ac ) are situated in the inner zone, and this fraction lowers as the radius increases favouring the presence of acidogens (X su ,X aa , X fa ) and acetogens (X c4 ,X pro ). Additional simulations show the effects on the overall process performance when operational (pH) and loading (S:COD) conditions are modified. Lastly, the effect of intra-granular precipitation on the overall organic/inorganic distribution is assessed at: 1) different times; and, 2) reactor heights. Finally, the possibilities and opportunities offered by the proposed approach for conducting engineering optimization projects are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All

Washington State Nursing Home Administrator Model Curriculum. Final Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Cowan, Florence Kelly

The course outlines presented in this final report comprise a proposed Fort Steilacoom Community College curriculum to be used as a statewide model two-year associate degree curriculum for nursing home administrators. The eight courses described are introduction to nursing, home administration, financial management of nursing homes, nursing home…

TRILEX and G W +EDMFT approach to d -wave superconductivity in the Hubbard model

Science.gov (United States)

Vučičević, J.; Ayral, T.; Parcollet, O.

2017-09-01

We generalize the recently introduced TRILEX approach (TRiply irreducible local EXpansion) to superconducting phases. The method treats simultaneously Mott and spin-fluctuation physics using an Eliashberg theory supplemented by local vertex corrections determined by a self-consistent quantum impurity model. We show that, in the two-dimensional Hubbard model, at strong coupling, TRILEX yields a d -wave superconducting dome as a function of doping. Contrary to the standard cluster dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) approaches, TRILEX can capture d -wave pairing using only a single-site effective impurity model. We also systematically explore the dependence of the superconducting temperature on the bare dispersion at weak coupling, which shows a clear link between strong antiferromagnetic (AF) correlations and the onset of superconductivity. We identify a combination of hopping amplitudes particularly favorable to superconductivity at intermediate doping. Finally, we study within G W +EDMFT the low-temperature d -wave superconducting phase at strong coupling in a region of parameter space with reduced AF fluctuations.

A model independent search for new physics in final states containing leptons at the D0 experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piper, Joel Michael

2009-01-01

The standard model is known to be the low energy limit of a more general theory. Several consequences of the standard model point to a strong probability of new physics becoming experimentally visible in high energy collisions of a few TeV, resulting in high momentum objects. The specific signatures of these collisions are topics of much debate. Rather than choosing a specific signature, this analysis broadly searches the data, preferring breadth over sensitivity. In searching for new physics, several different approaches are used. These include the comparison of data with standard model background expectation in overall number of events, comparisons of distributions of many kinematic variables, and finally comparisons on the tails of distributions that sum the momenta of the objects in an event. With 1.07 fb -1 at the D0 experiment, we find no evidence of physics beyond the standard model. Several discrepancies from the standard model were found, but none of these provide a compelling case for new physics.

A model independent search for new physics in final states containing leptons at the D0 experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piper, Joel Michael [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)

2009-01-01

The standard model is known to be the low energy limit of a more general theory. Several consequences of the standard model point to a strong probability of new physics becoming experimentally visible in high energy collisions of a few TeV, resulting in high momentum objects. The specific signatures of these collisions are topics of much debate. Rather than choosing a specific signature, this analysis broadly searches the data, preferring breadth over sensitivity. In searching for new physics, several different approaches are used. These include the comparison of data with standard model background expectation in overall number of events, comparisons of distributions of many kinematic variables, and finally comparisons on the tails of distributions that sum the momenta of the objects in an event. With 1.07 fb^-1 at the D0 experiment, we find no evidence of physics beyond the standard model. Several discrepancies from the standard model were found, but none of these provide a compelling case for new physics.

An Overview of Modeling Approaches Applied to Aggregation-Based Fleet Management and Integration of Plug-in Electric Vehicles †

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shi You

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The design and implementation of management policies for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs need to be supported by a holistic understanding of the functional processes, their complex interactions, and their response to various changes. Models developed to represent different functional processes and systems are seen as useful tools to support the related studies for different stakeholders in a tangible way. This paper presents an overview of modeling approaches applied to support aggregation-based management and integration of PEVs from the perspective of fleet operators and grid operators, respectively. We start by explaining a structured modeling approach, i.e., a flexible combination of process models and system models, applied to different management and integration studies. A state-of-the-art overview of modeling approaches applied to represent several key processes, such as charging management, and key systems, such as the PEV fleet, is then presented, along with a detailed description of different approaches. Finally, we discuss several considerations that need to be well understood during the modeling process in order to assist modelers and model users in the appropriate decisions of using existing, or developing their own, solutions for further applications.

An Adaptive Agent-Based Model of Homing Pigeons: A Genetic Algorithm Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francis Oloo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Conventionally, agent-based modelling approaches start from a conceptual model capturing the theoretical understanding of the systems of interest. Simulation outcomes are then used “at the end” to validate the conceptual understanding. In today’s data rich era, there are suggestions that models should be data-driven. Data-driven workflows are common in mathematical models. However, their application to agent-based models is still in its infancy. Integration of real-time sensor data into modelling workflows opens up the possibility of comparing simulations against real data during the model run. Calibration and validation procedures thus become automated processes that are iteratively executed during the simulation. We hypothesize that incorporation of real-time sensor data into agent-based models improves the predictive ability of such models. In particular, that such integration results in increasingly well calibrated model parameters and rule sets. In this contribution, we explore this question by implementing a flocking model that evolves in real-time. Specifically, we use genetic algorithms approach to simulate representative parameters to describe flight routes of homing pigeons. The navigation parameters of pigeons are simulated and dynamically evaluated against emulated GPS sensor data streams and optimised based on the fitness of candidate parameters. As a result, the model was able to accurately simulate the relative-turn angles and step-distance of homing pigeons. Further, the optimised parameters could replicate loops, which are common patterns in flight tracks of homing pigeons. Finally, the use of genetic algorithms in this study allowed for a simultaneous data-driven optimization and sensitivity analysis.

The Role of Participatory Modeling in Landscape Approaches to Reconcile Conservation and Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marieke Sandker

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Conservation organizations are increasingly turning to landscape approaches to achieve a balance between conservation and development goals. We use six case studies in Africa and Asia to explore the role of participatory modeling with stakeholders as one of the steps towards implementing a landscape approach. The modeling was enthusiastically embraced by some stakeholders and led to impact in some cases. Different stakeholders valued the modeling exercise differently. Noteworthy was the difference between those stakeholders connected to the policy process and scientists; the presence of the former in the modeling activities is key to achieving policy impacts, and the latter were most critical of participatory modeling. Valued aspects of the modeling included stimulating cross-sector strategic thinking, and helping participants to confront the real drivers of change and to recognize trade-offs. The modeling was generally considered to be successful in building shared understanding of issues. This understanding was gained mainly in the discussions held in the process of building the model rather than in the model outputs. The model itself reflects but a few of the main elements of the usually rich discussions that preceded its finalization. Problems emerged when models became too complex. Key lessons for participatory modeling are the need for good facilitation in order to maintain a balance between "models as stories" and technical modeling, and the importance of inviting the appropriate stakeholders to achieve impact.

Optimization of the piezoelectric response of 0–3 composites: a modeling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chambion, B; Goujon, L; Badie, L; Mugnier, Y; Barthod, C; Galez, C; Wiebel, S; Venet, C

2011-01-01

Finite element modeling is used in this study to optimize the electromechanical behavior of 0–3 composites according to the material properties of their constituents. Our modeling approach considers an 'extended' 2D representative volume element (RVE) with randomly dispersed piezoelectric particles. A variable distribution of their polarization axes is also implemented because a full periodic arrangement of fillers and a unique poling orientation are unrealistic in practice. Comparisons with a simpler RVE and with an analytical model based on the Mori–Tanaka approach are performed as a function of the particle concentration for the elastic, dielectric and piezoelectric homogenized properties. An optimization of the piezoelectric response of 0–3 composites according to material considerations is then computed, allowing it to be shown that the piezoelectric strain coefficient is not the only relevant parameter and that lead-free piezoelectric fillers such as LiNbO 3 and ZnO are competitive alternatives. Finally, the piezoelectric responses of 0–3 composites with different filler arrangements are quantitatively compared to 1–3 composites and to the corresponding bulk material

SLS Navigation Model-Based Design Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Geohagan, Kevin; Bernard, Bill; Park, Thomas

2018-01-01

The SLS Program chose to implement a Model-based Design and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team has been responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for the navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1-B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper provides a discussion of the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the Navigation components. These include composing system requirements, requirements verification, model development, model verification and validation, and modeling and analysis approaches. The Model-based Design and Requirements approach does not reduce the effort associated with the design process versus previous processes used at Marshall Space Flight Center. Instead, the approach takes advantage of overlap between the requirements development and management process, and the design and analysis process by efficiently combining the control (i.e. the requirement) and the design mechanisms. The design mechanism is the representation of the component behavior and performance in design and analysis tools. The focus in the early design process shifts from the development and

A land use regression model for ambient ultrafine particles in Montreal, Canada: A comparison of linear regression and a machine learning approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Weichenthal, Scott; Ryswyk, Keith Van; Goldstein, Alon; Bagg, Scott; Shekkarizfard, Maryam; Hatzopoulou, Marianne

2016-04-01

Existing evidence suggests that ambient ultrafine particles (UFPs) (regression model for UFPs in Montreal, Canada using mobile monitoring data collected from 414 road segments during the summer and winter months between 2011 and 2012. Two different approaches were examined for model development including standard multivariable linear regression and a machine learning approach (kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS)) that learns the functional form of covariate impacts on ambient UFP concentrations from the data. The final models included parameters for population density, ambient temperature and wind speed, land use parameters (park space and open space), length of local roads and rail, and estimated annual average NOx emissions from traffic. The final multivariable linear regression model explained 62% of the spatial variation in ambient UFP concentrations whereas the KRLS model explained 79% of the variance. The KRLS model performed slightly better than the linear regression model when evaluated using an external dataset (R(2)=0.58 vs. 0.55) or a cross-validation procedure (R(2)=0.67 vs. 0.60). In general, our findings suggest that the KRLS approach may offer modest improvements in predictive performance compared to standard multivariable linear regression models used to estimate spatial variations in ambient UFPs. However, differences in predictive performance were not statistically significant when evaluated using the cross-validation procedure. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An Approach to Developing Independent Learning and Non-Technical Skills Amongst Final Year Mining Engineering Students

Science.gov (United States)

Knobbs, C. G.; Grayson, D. J.

2012-01-01

There is mounting evidence to show that engineers need more than technical skills to succeed in industry. This paper describes a curriculum innovation in which so-called "soft" skills, specifically inter-personal and intra-personal skills, were integrated into a final year mining engineering course. The instructional approach was…

A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

2009-12-01

States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program, as well as those addressing coastal population dynamics and sea level rise. Our approach has several advantages, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty through a nonparametric probability distribution which avoids common pitfalls of fitting parameters and model error structure to a predetermined parametric distribution function. In addition, by explicitly acknowledging correlation between model parameters (and reflecting those correlations in our predictive model) our model yields relatively efficient prediction intervals (unlike those in the current literature which are often unnecessarily large, and may lead to overly-conservative management actions). Finally, our model helps improve understanding of the rainfall-runoff process by identifying model parameters (and associated catchment attributes) which are most sensitive to current and future land use change patterns. Disclaimer: Although this work was reviewed by EPA and approved for publication, it may not necessarily reflect official Agency policy.

Evolutionary modeling-based approach for model errors correction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Q. Wan

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963 equation as a prediction model and the Lorenz equation with a periodic evolutionary function as an accurate representation of reality to generate "observational data."

On the basis of the intelligent features of evolutionary modeling (EM, including self-organization, self-adaptive and self-learning, the dynamic information contained in the historical data can be identified and extracted by computer automatically. Thereby, a new approach is proposed to estimate model errors based on EM in the present paper. Numerical tests demonstrate the ability of the new approach to correct model structural errors. In fact, it can actualize the combination of the statistics and dynamics to certain extent.

HEDR modeling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

1992-07-01

This report details the conceptual approaches to be used in calculating radiation doses to individuals throughout the various periods of operations at the Hanford Site. The report considers the major environmental transport pathways--atmospheric, surface water, and ground water--and projects and appropriate modeling technique for each. The modeling sequence chosen for each pathway depends on the available data on doses, the degree of confidence justified by such existing data, and the level of sophistication deemed appropriate for the particular pathway and time period being considered

Analytic Model Predictive Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems: A Fuzzy Adaptive Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiuyan Peng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive control method is proposed in this paper for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. Specifically, invoking the standard results from the Moore-Penrose inverse of matrix, the unmatched problem which exists commonly in input and output dimensions of systems is firstly solved. Then, recurring to analytic model predictive control law, combined with fuzzy adaptive approach, the fuzzy adaptive predictive controller synthesis for the underlying systems is developed. To further reduce the impact of fuzzy approximation error on the system and improve the robustness of the system, the robust compensation term is introduced. It is shown that by applying the fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive controller the rudder roll stabilization system is ultimately uniformly bounded stabilized in the H-infinity sense. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Supplementary Material for: A global sensitivity analysis approach for morphogenesis models

KAUST Repository

Boas, Sonja

2015-01-01

Abstract Background Morphogenesis is a developmental process in which cells organize into shapes and patterns. Complex, non-linear and multi-factorial models with images as output are commonly used to study morphogenesis. It is difficult to understand the relation between the uncertainty in the input and the output of such ‘black-box’ models, giving rise to the need for sensitivity analysis tools. In this paper, we introduce a workflow for a global sensitivity analysis approach to study the impact of single parameters and the interactions between them on the output of morphogenesis models. Results To demonstrate the workflow, we used a published, well-studied model of vascular morphogenesis. The parameters of this cellular Potts model (CPM) represent cell properties and behaviors that drive the mechanisms of angiogenic sprouting. The global sensitivity analysis correctly identified the dominant parameters in the model, consistent with previous studies. Additionally, the analysis provided information on the relative impact of single parameters and of interactions between them. This is very relevant because interactions of parameters impede the experimental verification of the predicted effect of single parameters. The parameter interactions, although of low impact, provided also new insights in the mechanisms of in silico sprouting. Finally, the analysis indicated that the model could be reduced by one parameter. Conclusions We propose global sensitivity analysis as an alternative approach to study the mechanisms of morphogenesis. Comparison of the ranking of the impact of the model parameters to knowledge derived from experimental data and from manipulation experiments can help to falsify models and to find the operand mechanisms in morphogenesis. The workflow is applicable to all ‘black-box’ models, including high-throughput in vitro models in which output measures are affected by a set of experimental perturbations.

A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-11

This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

Improving stability of prediction models based on correlated omics data by using network approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renaud Tissier

Full Text Available Building prediction models based on complex omics datasets such as transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics remains a challenge in bioinformatics and biostatistics. Regularized regression techniques are typically used to deal with the high dimensionality of these datasets. However, due to the presence of correlation in the datasets, it is difficult to select the best model and application of these methods yields unstable results. We propose a novel strategy for model selection where the obtained models also perform well in terms of overall predictability. Several three step approaches are considered, where the steps are 1 network construction, 2 clustering to empirically derive modules or pathways, and 3 building a prediction model incorporating the information on the modules. For the first step, we use weighted correlation networks and Gaussian graphical modelling. Identification of groups of features is performed by hierarchical clustering. The grouping information is included in the prediction model by using group-based variable selection or group-specific penalization. We compare the performance of our new approaches with standard regularized regression via simulations. Based on these results we provide recommendations for selecting a strategy for building a prediction model given the specific goal of the analysis and the sizes of the datasets. Finally we illustrate the advantages of our approach by application of the methodology to two problems, namely prediction of body mass index in the DIetary, Lifestyle, and Genetic determinants of Obesity and Metabolic syndrome study (DILGOM and prediction of response of each breast cancer cell line to treatment with specific drugs using a breast cancer cell lines pharmacogenomics dataset.

Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

2017-11-01

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Application of various FLD modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Banabic, D.; Aretz, H.; Paraianu, L.; Jurco, P.

2005-07-01

This paper focuses on a comparison between different modelling approaches to predict the forming limit diagram (FLD) for sheet metal forming under a linear strain path using the recently introduced orthotropic yield criterion BBC2003 (Banabic D et al 2005 Int. J. Plasticity 21 493-512). The FLD models considered here are a finite element based approach, the well known Marciniak-Kuczynski model, the modified maximum force criterion according to Hora et al (1996 Proc. Numisheet'96 Conf. (Dearborn/Michigan) pp 252-6), Swift's diffuse (Swift H W 1952 J. Mech. Phys. Solids 1 1-18) and Hill's classical localized necking approach (Hill R 1952 J. Mech. Phys. Solids 1 19-30). The FLD of an AA5182-O aluminium sheet alloy has been determined experimentally in order to quantify the predictive capabilities of the models mentioned above.

Double scattering and final-state interaction in Xd ---> YNN

CERN Document Server

Alberi, G; Thomé, Z D

1974-01-01

A unified approach to double scattering, as well as the final-state interaction of the two nucleons at small and large momentum transfers are given. The closure sum rule for the final-state interaction at small momentum transfers is shown explicitly in a simple model for the deuteron wave function and nucleon interaction. An application for the process K/sup +/d to K/sup 0/pp is given, trying to explain discrepancies present in recent experiments. (35 refs).

A Unified Approach to Modeling and Programming

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Ole Lehrmann; Møller-Pedersen, Birger

2010-01-01

of this paper is to go back to the future and get inspiration from SIMULA and propose a unied approach. In addition to reintroducing the contributions of SIMULA and the Scandinavian approach to object-oriented programming, we do this by discussing a number of issues in modeling and programming and argue3 why we......SIMULA was a language for modeling and programming and provided a unied approach to modeling and programming in contrast to methodologies based on structured analysis and design. The current development seems to be going in the direction of separation of modeling and programming. The goal...

Technical note: Comparison of methane ebullition modelling approaches used in terrestrial wetland models

Science.gov (United States)

Peltola, Olli; Raivonen, Maarit; Li, Xuefei; Vesala, Timo

2018-02-01

Emission via bubbling, i.e. ebullition, is one of the main methane (CH4) emission pathways from wetlands to the atmosphere. Direct measurement of gas bubble formation, growth and release in the peat-water matrix is challenging and in consequence these processes are relatively unknown and are coarsely represented in current wetland CH4 emission models. In this study we aimed to evaluate three ebullition modelling approaches and their effect on model performance. This was achieved by implementing the three approaches in one process-based CH4 emission model. All the approaches were based on some kind of threshold: either on CH4 pore water concentration (ECT), pressure (EPT) or free-phase gas volume (EBG) threshold. The model was run using 4 years of data from a boreal sedge fen and the results were compared with eddy covariance measurements of CH4 fluxes.Modelled annual CH4 emissions were largely unaffected by the different ebullition modelling approaches; however, temporal variability in CH4 emissions varied an order of magnitude between the approaches. Hence the ebullition modelling approach drives the temporal variability in modelled CH4 emissions and therefore significantly impacts, for instance, high-frequency (daily scale) model comparison and calibration against measurements. The modelling approach based on the most recent knowledge of the ebullition process (volume threshold, EBG) agreed the best with the measured fluxes (R2 = 0.63) and hence produced the most reasonable results, although there was a scale mismatch between the measurements (ecosystem scale with heterogeneous ebullition locations) and model results (single horizontally homogeneous peat column). The approach should be favoured over the two other more widely used ebullition modelling approaches and researchers are encouraged to implement it into their CH4 emission models.

System Behavior Models: A Survey of Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-01

OF FIGURES Spiral Model .................................................................................................3 Figure 1. Approaches in... spiral model was chosen for researching and structuring this thesis, shown in Figure 1. This approach allowed multiple iterations of source material...applications and refining through iteration. 3 Spiral Model Figure 1. D. SCOPE The research is limited to a literature review, limited

Set-Theoretic Approach to Maturity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lasrado, Lester Allan

Despite being widely accepted and applied, maturity models in Information Systems (IS) have been criticized for the lack of theoretical grounding, methodological rigor, empirical validations, and ignorance of multiple and non-linear paths to maturity. This PhD thesis focuses on addressing...... these criticisms by incorporating recent developments in configuration theory, in particular application of set-theoretic approaches. The aim is to show the potential of employing a set-theoretic approach for maturity model research and empirically demonstrating equifinal paths to maturity. Specifically...... methodological guidelines consisting of detailed procedures to systematically apply set theoretic approaches for maturity model research and provides demonstrations of it application on three datasets. The thesis is a collection of six research papers that are written in a sequential manner. The first paper...

Parametric laws to model urban pollutant dispersion with a street network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Soulhac, L.; Salizzoni, P.; Mejean, P.; Perkins, R. J.

2013-03-01

This study discusses the reliability of the street network approach for pollutant dispersion modelling in urban areas. This is essentially based on a box model, with parametric relations that explicitly model the main phenomena that contribute to the street canyon ventilation: the mass exchanges between the street and the atmosphere, the pollutant advection along the street axes and the pollutant transfer at street intersections. In the first part of the paper the focus is on the development of a model for the bulk transfer street/atmosphere, which represents the main ventilation mechanisms for wind direction that are almost perpendicular to the axis of the street. We then discuss the role of the advective transfer along the street axis on its ventilation, depending on the length of the street and the direction of the external wind. Finally we evaluate the performances of a box model integrating parametric exchange laws for these transfer phenomena. To that purpose we compare the prediction of the model to wind tunnel experiments of pollutant dispersion within a street canyon placed in an idealised urban district.

Final Report Fermionic Symmetries and Self consistent Shell Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamick, Larry

2008-01-01

In this final report in the field of theoretical nuclear physics we note important accomplishments.We were confronted with 'anomoulous' magnetic moments by the experimetalists and were able to expain them. We found unexpected partial dynamical symmetries--completely unknown before, and were able to a large extent to expain them. The importance of a self consistent shell model was emphasized.

A New Approach of Modeling an Ultra-Super-Critical Power Plant for Performance Improvement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guolian Hou

2016-04-01

Full Text Available A suitable model of coordinated control system (CCS with high accuracy and simple structure is essential for the design of advanced controllers which can improve the efficiency of the ultra-super-critical (USC power plant. Therefore, with the demand of plant performance improvement, an improved T-S fuzzy model identification approach is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the improved entropy cluster algorithm is applied to identify the premise parameters which can automatically determine the cluster numbers and initial cluster centers by introducing the concept of a decision-making constant and threshold. Then, the learning algorithm is used to modify the initial cluster center and a new structure of concluding part is discussed, the incremental data around the cluster center is used to identify the local linear model through a weighted recursive least-square algorithm. Finally, the proposed approach is employed to model the CCS of a 1000 MW USC one-through boiler power plant by using on-site measured data. Simulation results show that the T-S fuzzy model built in this paper is accurate enough to reflect the dynamic performance of CCS and can be treated as a foundation model for the overall optimizing control of the USC power plant.

Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

2017-10-02

Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

Transient Inverse Calibration of Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts from 1943 to 1996-Alternative Conceptual Model Considering Interaction with Uppermost Basalt Confined Aquifer; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vermeul, Vince R; Cole, Charles R; Bergeron, Marcel P; Thorne, Paul D; Wurstner, Signe K

2001-01-01

The baseline three-dimensional transient inverse model for the estimation of site-wide scale flow parameters, including their uncertainties, using data on the transient behavior of the unconfined aquifer system over the entire historical period of Hanford operations, has been modified to account for the effects of basalt intercommunication between the Hanford unconfined aquifer and the underlying upper basalt confined aquifer. Both the baseline and alternative conceptual models (ACM-1) considered only the groundwater flow component and corresponding observational data in the 3-Dl transient inverse calibration efforts. Subsequent efforts will examine both groundwater flow and transport. Comparisons of goodness of fit measures and parameter estimation results for the ACM-1 transient inverse calibrated model with those from previous site-wide groundwater modeling efforts illustrate that the new 3-D transient inverse model approach will strengthen the technical defensibility of the final model(s) and provide the ability to incorporate uncertainty in predictions related to both conceptual model and parameter uncertainty

Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling. Final report

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Badger, Jake

This is the final report of the project PSO-10240 "Calculation of extreme wind atlases using mesoscale modeling". The overall objective is to improve the estimation of extreme winds by developing and applying new methodologies to confront the many weaknesses in the current methodologies as explai...

Photovoltaic subsystem marketing and distribution model: programming manual. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-07-01

Complete documentation of the marketing and distribution (M and D) computer model is provided. The purpose is to estimate the costs of selling and transporting photovoltaic solar energy products from the manufacturer to the final customer. The model adjusts for the inflation and regional differences in marketing and distribution costs. The model consists of three major components: the marketing submodel, the distribution submodel, and the financial submodel. The computer program is explained including the input requirements, output reports, subprograms and operating environment. The program specifications discuss maintaining the validity of the data and potential improvements. An example for a photovoltaic concentrator collector demonstrates the application of the model.

Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Mooij, Wolf M.; Trolle, Dennis; Jeppesen, Erik; Arhonditsis, George; Belolipetsky, Pavel V.; Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B.R.; Degermendzhy, Andrey G.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Domis, Lisette N. De Senerpont; Downing, Andrea S.; Elliott, J. Alex; Ruberto, Carlos Ruberto; Gaedke, Ursula; Genova, Svetlana N.; Gulati, Ramesh D.; Hakanson, Lars; Hamilton, David P.; Hipsey, Matthew R.; Hoen, Jochem 't; Hulsmann, Stephan; Los, F. Hans; Makler-Pick, Vardit; Petzoldt, Thomas; Prokopkin, Igor G.; Rinke, Karsten; Schep, Sebastiaan A.; Tominaga, Koji; Van Dam, Anne A.; Van Nes, Egbert H.; Wells, Scott A.; Janse, Jan H.

2010-01-01

A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and trait-based models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative

Models of galaxies - The modal approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, C.C.; Lowe, S.A.

1990-01-01

The general viability of the modal approach to the spiral structure in normal spirals and the barlike structure in certain barred spirals is discussed. The usefulness of the modal approach in the construction of models of such galaxies is examined, emphasizing the adoption of a model appropriate to observational data for both the spiral structure of a galaxy and its basic mass distribution. 44 refs

Evaporator modeling - A hybrid approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun

2009-01-01

In this paper, a hybrid modeling approach is proposed to model two-phase flow evaporators. The main procedures for hybrid modeling includes: (1) Based on the energy and material balance, and thermodynamic principles to formulate the process fundamental governing equations; (2) Select input/output (I/O) variables responsible to the system performance which can be measured and controlled; (3) Represent those variables existing in the original equations but are not measurable as simple functions of selected I/Os or constants; (4) Obtaining a single equation which can correlate system inputs and outputs; and (5) Identify unknown parameters by linear or nonlinear least-squares methods. The method takes advantages of both physical and empirical modeling approaches and can accurately predict performance in wide operating range and in real-time, which can significantly reduce the computational burden and increase the prediction accuracy. The model is verified with the experimental data taken from a testing system. The testing results show that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating evaporator with the maximum error of ±8%. The developed models will have wide applications in operational optimization, performance assessment, fault detection and diagnosis

Deep inelastic final states

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girardi, G.

1980-11-01

In these lectures we attempt to describe the final states of deep inelastic scattering as given by QCD. In the first section we shall briefly comment on the parton model and give the main properties of decay functions which are of interest for the study of semi-inclusive leptoproduction. The second section is devoted to the QCD approach to single hadron leptoproduction. First we recall basic facts on QCD log's and derive after that the evolution equations for the fragmentation functions. For this purpose we make a short detour in e + e - annihilation. The rest of the section is a study of the factorization of long distance effects associated with the initial and final states. We then show how when one includes next to leading QCD corrections one induces factorization breaking and describe the double moments useful for testing such effects. The next section contains a review on the QCD jets in the hadronic final state. We begin by introducing the notion of infrared safe variable and defining a few useful examples. Distributions in these variables are studied to first order in QCD, with some comments on the resummation of logs encountered in higher orders. Finally the last section is a 'gaullimaufry' of jet studies

MARKETING RELATIONSHIP AND TRADING IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SERVICE PROVIDERS, HEALTH OPERATORS AND FINAL CUSTOMER: THE SEARCH FOR AN INTEGRATING MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nilda Catalina, Tañski

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The marketing relationship finds similarities with the concept of cooperative bargaining, the purpose of this is to find solutions to mutual gains with long-term vision. Within this approach, we sought to build an integrative model of relationship marketing and negotiation in the relationship between service providers, health operators and final customers in the health plan market in Brazil, this relationship is complex, full of conflicts and stagnation. It was first used, first, as an exploratory research of direct observation of the phenomenon referred to relationship marketing, trading and health insurance to increase employment opportunities. Then, the method of data collection was in that environment through online questionnaires using the survey method, in the representative sector. The type of sample used, where n = 217 and the confidence level was 95%, not intentional probabilistic. In the final, it was concluded that the initially proposed model was fully accepted, taking into account the choice of methodology, then achieving the main objective of this study.

Deep Appearance Models: A Deep Boltzmann Machine Approach for Face Modeling

OpenAIRE

Duong, Chi Nhan; Luu, Khoa; Quach, Kha Gia; Bui, Tien D.

2016-01-01

The "interpretation through synthesis" approach to analyze face images, particularly Active Appearance Models (AAMs) method, has become one of the most successful face modeling approaches over the last two decades. AAM models have ability to represent face images through synthesis using a controllable parameterized Principal Component Analysis (PCA) model. However, the accuracy and robustness of the synthesized faces of AAM are highly depended on the training sets and inherently on the genera...

A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buslik, A.

1994-01-01

A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

A Model-Based Approach to Infer Shifts in Regional Fire Regimes Over Time Using Sediment Charcoal Records

Science.gov (United States)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; Hooten, M.; Higuera, P. E.; Marlon, J. R.; McLachlan, J. S.; Kelly, R.

2016-12-01

Sediment charcoal records are used in paleoecological analyses to identify individual local fire events and to estimate fire frequency and regional biomass burned at centennial to millenial time scales. Methods to identify local fire events based on sediment charcoal records have been well developed over the past 30 years, however, an integrated statistical framework for fire identification is still lacking. We build upon existing paleoecological methods to develop a hierarchical Bayesian point process model for local fire identification and estimation of fire return intervals. The model is unique in that it combines sediment charcoal records from multiple lakes across a region in a spatially-explicit fashion leading to estimation of a joint, regional fire return interval in addition to lake-specific local fire frequencies. Further, the model estimates a joint regional charcoal deposition rate free from the effects of local fires that can be used as a measure of regional biomass burned over time. Finally, the hierarchical Bayesian approach allows for tractable error propagation such that estimates of fire return intervals reflect the full range of uncertainty in sediment charcoal records. Specific sources of uncertainty addressed include sediment age models, the separation of local versus regional charcoal sources, and generation of a composite charcoal record The model is applied to sediment charcoal records from a dense network of lakes in the Yukon Flats region of Alaska. The multivariate joint modeling approach results in improved estimates of regional charcoal deposition with reduced uncertainty in the identification of individual fire events and local fire return intervals compared to individual lake approaches. Modeled individual-lake fire return intervals range from 100 to 500 years with a regional interval of roughly 200 years. Regional charcoal deposition to the network of lakes is correlated up to 50 kilometers. Finally, the joint regional charcoal

Conducting requirements analyses for research using routinely collected health data: a model driven approach.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lusignan, Simon; Cashman, Josephine; Poh, Norman; Michalakidis, Georgios; Mason, Aaron; Desombre, Terry; Krause, Paul

2012-01-01

Medical research increasingly requires the linkage of data from different sources. Conducting a requirements analysis for a new application is an established part of software engineering, but rarely reported in the biomedical literature; and no generic approaches have been published as to how to link heterogeneous health data. Literature review, followed by a consensus process to define how requirements for research, using, multiple data sources might be modeled. We have developed a requirements analysis: i-ScheDULEs - The first components of the modeling process are indexing and create a rich picture of the research study. Secondly, we developed a series of reference models of progressive complexity: Data flow diagrams (DFD) to define data requirements; unified modeling language (UML) use case diagrams to capture study specific and governance requirements; and finally, business process models, using business process modeling notation (BPMN). These requirements and their associated models should become part of research study protocols.

Final Report, “Exploiting Global View for Resilience”

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chien, Andrew [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United States)

2017-03-29

Final technical report for the "Exploiting Global View for Resilience" project. The GVR project aims to create a new approach to portable, resilient applications. The GVR approach builds on a global view data model,, adding versioning (multi-version), user control of timing and rate (multi-stream), and flexible cross layer error signalling and recovery. With a versioned array as a portable abstraction, GVR enables application programmers to exploit deep scientific and application code insights to manage resilience (and its overhead) in a flexible, portable fashion.

An Evolutionary Robotics Approach to the Control of Plant Growth and Motion: Modeling Plants and Crossing the Reality Gap

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wahby, Mostafa; Hofstadler, Daniel Nicolas; Heinrich, Mary Katherine

2016-01-01

approach where task performance is determined by monitoring the plant's reaction. First, we do initial plant experiments with simple, predetermined controllers. Then we use image sampling data as a model of the dynamics of the plant tip xy position. Second, we use this approach to evolve robot controllers...... in simulation. The task is to make the plant approach three predetermined, distinct points in an xy-plane. Finally, we test the evolved controllers in real plant experiments and find that we cross the reality gap successfully. We shortly describe how we have extended from plant tip to many points on the plant...

Modelling individual differences in the form of Pavlovian conditioned approach responses: a dual learning systems approach with factored representations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Lesaint

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US, some rats (sign-trackers come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS itself - a lever - more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in

Modelling Individual Differences in the Form of Pavlovian Conditioned Approach Responses: A Dual Learning Systems Approach with Factored Representations

Science.gov (United States)

Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Flagel, Shelly B.; Robinson, Terry E.; Khamassi, Mehdi

2014-01-01

Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs) and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US), some rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS) itself – a lever – more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in

Modelling individual differences in the form of Pavlovian conditioned approach responses: a dual learning systems approach with factored representations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Flagel, Shelly B; Robinson, Terry E; Khamassi, Mehdi

2014-02-01

Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs) and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US), some rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS) itself - a lever - more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in computational

Comparison of tree types of models for the prediction of final academic achievement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvana Gasar

2002-12-01

Full Text Available For efficient prevention of inappropriate secondary school choices and by that academic failure, school counselors need a tool for the prediction of individual pupil's final academic achievements. Using data mining techniques on pupils' data base and expert modeling, we developed several models for the prediction of final academic achievement in an individual high school educational program. For data mining, we used statistical analyses, clustering and two machine learning methods: developing classification decision trees and hierarchical decision models. Using an expert system shell DEX, an expert system, based on a hierarchical multi-attribute decision model, was developed manually. All the models were validated and evaluated from the viewpoint of their applicability. The predictive accuracy of DEX models and decision trees was equal and very satisfying, as it reached the predictive accuracy of an experienced counselor. With respect on the efficiency and difficulties in developing models, and relatively rapid changing of our education system, we propose that decision trees are used in further development of predictive models.

An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

2011-02-01

The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

A Model-Based Approach for Bridging Virtual and Physical Sensor Nodes in a Hybrid Simulation Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Mozumdar

2014-06-01

Full Text Available The Model Based Design (MBD approach is a popular trend to speed up application development of embedded systems, which uses high-level abstractions to capture functional requirements in an executable manner, and which automates implementation code generation. Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs are an emerging very promising application area for embedded systems. However, there is a lack of tools in this area, which would allow an application developer to model a WSN application by using high level abstractions, simulate it mapped to a multi-node scenario for functional analysis, and finally use the refined model to automatically generate code for different WSN platforms. Motivated by this idea, in this paper we present a hybrid simulation framework that not only follows the MBD approach for WSN application development, but also interconnects a simulated sub-network with a physical sub-network and then allows one to co-simulate them, which is also known as Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL simulation.

A Workflow-Oriented Approach To Propagation Models In Heliophysics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriele Pierantoni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The Sun is responsible for the eruption of billions of tons of plasma andthe generation of near light-speed particles that propagate throughout the solarsystem and beyond. If directed towards Earth, these events can be damaging toour tecnological infrastructure. Hence there is an effort to understand the causeof the eruptive events and how they propagate from Sun to Earth. However, thephysics governing their propagation is not well understood, so there is a need todevelop a theoretical description of their propagation, known as a PropagationModel, in order to predict when they may impact Earth. It is often difficultto define a single propagation model that correctly describes the physics ofsolar eruptive events, and even more difficult to implement models capable ofcatering for all these complexities and to validate them using real observational data.In this paper, we envisage that workflows offer both a theoretical andpractical framerwork for a novel approach to propagation models. We definea mathematical framework that aims at encompassing the different modalitieswith which workflows can be used, and provide a set of generic building blockswritten in the TAVERNA workflow language that users can use to build theirown propagation models. Finally we test both the theoretical model and thecomposite building blocks of the workflow with a real Science Use Case that wasdiscussed during the 4th CDAW (Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop eventheld by the HELIO project. We show that generic workflow building blocks canbe used to construct a propagation model that succesfully describes the transitof solar eruptive events toward Earth and predict a correct Earth-impact time

Bayesian informative dropout model for longitudinal binary data with random effects using conditional and joint modeling approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Jennifer S K

2016-05-01

Dropouts are common in longitudinal study. If the dropout probability depends on the missing observations at or after dropout, this type of dropout is called informative (or nonignorable) dropout (ID). Failure to accommodate such dropout mechanism into the model will bias the parameter estimates. We propose a conditional autoregressive model for longitudinal binary data with an ID model such that the probabilities of positive outcomes as well as the drop-out indicator in each occasion are logit linear in some covariates and outcomes. This model adopting a marginal model for outcomes and a conditional model for dropouts is called a selection model. To allow for the heterogeneity and clustering effects, the outcome model is extended to incorporate mixture and random effects. Lastly, the model is further extended to a novel model that models the outcome and dropout jointly such that their dependency is formulated through an odds ratio function. Parameters are estimated by a Bayesian approach implemented using the user-friendly Bayesian software WinBUGS. A methadone clinic dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed models. Result shows that the treatment time effect is still significant but weaker after allowing for an ID process in the data. Finally the effect of drop-out on parameter estimates is evaluated through simulation studies. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Current approaches to gene regulatory network modelling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brazma Alvis

2007-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Many different approaches have been developed to model and simulate gene regulatory networks. We proposed the following categories for gene regulatory network models: network parts lists, network topology models, network control logic models, and dynamic models. Here we will describe some examples for each of these categories. We will study the topology of gene regulatory networks in yeast in more detail, comparing a direct network derived from transcription factor binding data and an indirect network derived from genome-wide expression data in mutants. Regarding the network dynamics we briefly describe discrete and continuous approaches to network modelling, then describe a hybrid model called Finite State Linear Model and demonstrate that some simple network dynamics can be simulated in this model.

Development of Building Thermal Load and Discomfort Degree Hour Prediction Models Using Data Mining Approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yaolin Lin

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Thermal load and indoor comfort level are two important building performance indicators, rapid predictions of which can help significantly reduce the computation time during design optimization. In this paper, a three-step approach is used to develop and evaluate prediction models. Firstly, the Latin Hypercube Sampling Method (LHSM is used to generate a representative 19-dimensional design database and DesignBuilder is then used to obtain the thermal load and discomfort degree hours through simulation. Secondly, samples from the database are used to develop and validate seven prediction models, using data mining approaches including multilinear regression (MLR, chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID, exhaustive CHAID (ECHAID, back-propagation neural network (BPNN, radial basis function network (RBFN, classification and regression trees (CART, and support vector machines (SVM. It is found that the MLR and BPNN models outperform the others in the prediction of thermal load with average absolute error of less than 1.19%, and the BPNN model is the best at predicting discomfort degree hour with 0.62% average absolute error. Finally, two hybrid models—MLR (MLR + BPNN and MLR-BPNN—are developed. The MLR-BPNN models are found to be the best prediction models, with average absolute error of 0.82% in thermal load and 0.59% in discomfort degree hour.

A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

2008-11-21

Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

A Dynamic Intelligent Decision Approach to Dependency Modeling of Project Tasks in Complex Engineering System Optimization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tinggui Chen

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Complex engineering system optimization usually involves multiple projects or tasks. On the one hand, dependency modeling among projects or tasks highlights structures in systems and their environments which can help to understand the implications of connectivity on different aspects of system performance and also assist in designing, optimizing, and maintaining complex systems. On the other hand, multiple projects or tasks are either happening at the same time or scheduled into a sequence in order to use common resources. In this paper, we propose a dynamic intelligent decision approach to dependency modeling of project tasks in complex engineering system optimization. The approach takes this decision process as a two-stage decision-making problem. In the first stage, a task clustering approach based on modularization is proposed so as to find out a suitable decomposition scheme for a large-scale project. In the second stage, according to the decomposition result, a discrete artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm inspired by the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybees is developed for the resource constrained multiproject scheduling problem. Finally, a certain case from an engineering design of a chemical processing system is utilized to help to understand the proposed approach.

Ethical aspects of final disposal. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baltes, B.; Leder, W.; Achenbach, G.B.; Spaemann, R.; Gerhardt, V.

2003-01-01

In fulfilment of this task the Federal Environmental Ministry has commissioned GRS to summarise the current national and international status of ethical aspects of the final disposal of radioactive wastes as part of the project titled ''Final disposal of radioactive wastes as seen from the viewpoint of ethical objectives''. The questions arising from the opinions, positions and publications presented in the report by GRS were to serve as a basis for an expert discussion or an interdisciplinary discussion forum for all concerned with the ethical aspects of an answerable approach to the final disposal of radioactive wastes. In April 2001 GRS held a one-day seminar at which leading ethicists and philosophers offered statements on the questions referred to above and joined in a discussion with experts on issues of final disposal. This report documents the questions that arose ahead of the workshop, the specialist lectures held there and a summary of the discussion results [de

Service creation: a model-based approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Quartel, Dick; van Sinderen, Marten J.; Ferreira Pires, Luis

1999-01-01

This paper presents a model-based approach to support service creation. In this approach, services are assumed to be created from (available) software components. The creation process may involve multiple design steps in which the requested service is repeatedly decomposed into more detailed

Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

Science.gov (United States)

Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

2017-04-01

Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

Are individual based models a suitable approach to estimate population vulnerability? - a case study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eva Maria Griebeler

2011-04-01

Full Text Available European populations of the Large Blue Butterfly Maculinea arion have experienced severe declines in the last decades, especially in the northern part of the species range. This endangered lycaenid butterfly needs two resources for development: flower buds of specific plants (Thymus spp., Origanum vulgare, on which young caterpillars briefly feed, and red ants of the genus Myrmica, whose nests support caterpillars during a prolonged final instar. I present an analytically solvable deterministic model to estimate the vulnerability of populations of M. arion. Results obtained from the sensitivity analysis of this mathematical model (MM are contrasted to the respective results that had been derived from a spatially explicit individual based model (IBM for this butterfly. I demonstrate that details in landscape configuration which are neglected by the MM but are easily taken into consideration by the IBM result in a different degree of intraspecific competition of caterpillars on flower buds and within host ant nests. The resulting differences in mortalities of caterpillars lead to erroneous estimates of the extinction risk of a butterfly population living in habitat with low food plant coverage and low abundance in host ant nests. This observation favors the use of an individual based modeling approach over the deterministic approach at least for the management of this threatened butterfly.

Modelling a suitable location for Urban Solid Waste Management using AHP method and GIS -A geospatial approach and MCDM Model

Science.gov (United States)

Iqbal, M.; Islam, A.; Hossain, A.; Mustaque, S.

2016-12-01

Multi-Criteria Decision Making(MCDM) is advanced analytical method to evaluate appropriate result or decision from multiple criterion environment. Present time in advanced research, MCDM technique is progressive analytical process to evaluate a logical decision from various conflict. In addition, Present day Geospatial approach (e.g. Remote sensing and GIS) also another advanced technical approach in a research to collect, process and analyze various spatial data at a time. GIS and Remote sensing together with the MCDM technique could be the best platform to solve a complex decision making process. These two latest process combined very effectively used in site selection for solid waste management in urban policy. The most popular MCDM technique is Weighted Linear Method (WLC) where Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is another popular and consistent techniques used in worldwide as dependable decision making. Consequently, the main objective of this study is improving a AHP model as MCDM technique with Geographic Information System (GIS) to select a suitable landfill site for urban solid waste management. Here AHP technique used as a MCDM tool to select the best suitable landfill location for urban solid waste management. To protect the urban environment in a sustainable way municipal waste needs an appropriate landfill site considering environmental, geological, social and technical aspect of the region. A MCDM model generate from five class related which related to environmental, geological, social and technical using AHP method and input the result set in GIS for final model location for urban solid waste management. The final suitable location comes out that 12.2% of the area corresponds to 22.89 km2 considering the total study area. In this study, Keraniganj sub-district of Dhaka district in Bangladesh is consider as study area which is densely populated city currently undergoes an unmanaged waste management system especially the suitable landfill sites for

Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

Science.gov (United States)

Zi, Z

2011-11-01

With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

Quantification of uncertainties in turbulence modeling: A comparison of physics-based and random matrix theoretic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Jian-Xun; Sun, Rui; Xiao, Heng

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Compared physics-based and random matrix methods to quantify RANS model uncertainty. • Demonstrated applications of both methods in channel ow over periodic hills. • Examined the amount of information introduced in the physics-based approach. • Discussed implications to modeling turbulence in both near-wall and separated regions. - Abstract: Numerical models based on Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations are widely used in engineering turbulence modeling. However, the RANS predictions have large model-form uncertainties for many complex flows, e.g., those with non-parallel shear layers or strong mean flow curvature. Quantification of these large uncertainties originating from the modeled Reynolds stresses has attracted attention in the turbulence modeling community. Recently, a physics-based Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties has been proposed with successful applications to several flows. Nonetheless, how to specify proper priors without introducing unwarranted, artificial information remains challenging to the current form of the physics-based approach. Another recently proposed method based on random matrix theory provides the prior distributions with maximum entropy, which is an alternative for model-form uncertainty quantification in RANS simulations. This method has better mathematical rigorousness and provides the most non-committal prior distributions without introducing artificial constraints. On the other hand, the physics-based approach has the advantages of being more flexible to incorporate available physical insights. In this work, we compare and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the two approaches on model-form uncertainty quantification. In addition, we utilize the random matrix theoretic approach to assess and possibly improve the specification of priors used in the physics-based approach. The comparison is conducted through a test case using a canonical flow, the flow past

Medicare Program; Cancellation of Advancing Care Coordination Through Episode Payment and Cardiac Rehabilitation Incentive Payment Models; Changes to Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Payment Model: Extreme and Uncontrollable Circumstances Policy for the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Payment Model. Final rule; interim final rule with comment period.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-01

This final rule cancels the Episode Payment Models (EPMs) and Cardiac Rehabilitation (CR) Incentive Payment Model and rescinds the regulations governing these models. It also implements certain revisions to the Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement (CJR) model, including: Giving certain hospitals selected for participation in the CJR model a one-time option to choose whether to continue their participation in the model; technical refinements and clarifications for certain payment, reconciliation and quality provisions; and a change to increase the pool of eligible clinicians that qualify as affiliated practitioners under the Advanced Alternative Payment Model (Advanced APM) track. An interim final rule with comment period is being issued in conjunction with this final rule in order to address the need for a policy to provide some flexibility in the determination of episode costs for providers located in areas impacted by extreme and uncontrollable circumstances.

A Multivariate Approach to Functional Neuro Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørch, Niels J.S.

1998-01-01

by the application of linear and more flexible, nonlinear microscopic regression models to a real-world dataset. The dependency of model performance, as quantified by generalization error, on model flexibility and training set size is demonstrated, leading to the important realization that no uniformly optimal model......, provides the basis for a generalization theoretical framework relating model performance to model complexity and dataset size. Briefly summarized the major topics discussed in the thesis include: - An introduction of the representation of functional datasets by pairs of neuronal activity patterns...... exists. - Model visualization and interpretation techniques. The simplicity of this task for linear models contrasts the difficulties involved when dealing with nonlinear models. Finally, a visualization technique for nonlinear models is proposed. A single observation emerges from the thesis...

A unified modeling approach for physical experiment design and optimization in laser driven inertial confinement fusion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Haiyan [Mechatronics Engineering School of Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Huang, Yunbao, E-mail: Huangyblhy@gmail.com [Mechatronics Engineering School of Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006 (China); Jiang, Shaoen, E-mail: Jiangshn@vip.sina.com [Laser Fusion Research Center, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China); Jing, Longfei, E-mail: scmyking_2008@163.com [Laser Fusion Research Center, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China); Tianxuan, Huang; Ding, Yongkun [Laser Fusion Research Center, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China)

2015-11-15

Highlights: • A unified modeling approach for physical experiment design is presented. • Any laser facility can be flexibly defined and included with two scripts. • Complex targets and laser beams can be parametrically modeled for optimization. • Automatically mapping of laser beam energy facilitates targets shape optimization. - Abstract: Physical experiment design and optimization is very essential for laser driven inertial confinement fusion due to the high cost of each shot. However, only limited experiments with simple structure or shape on several laser facilities can be designed and evaluated in available codes, and targets are usually defined by programming, which may lead to it difficult for complex shape target design and optimization on arbitrary laser facilities. A unified modeling approach for physical experiment design and optimization on any laser facilities is presented in this paper. Its core idea includes: (1) any laser facility can be flexibly defined and included with two scripts, (2) complex shape targets and laser beams can be parametrically modeled based on features, (3) an automatically mapping scheme of laser beam energy onto discrete mesh elements of targets enable targets or laser beams be optimized without any additional interactive modeling or programming, and (4) significant computation algorithms are additionally presented to efficiently evaluate radiation symmetry on the target. Finally, examples are demonstrated to validate the significance of such unified modeling approach for physical experiments design and optimization in laser driven inertial confinement fusion.

Generating Collaborative Systems for Digital Libraries: a Model-Driven Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessio Malizia

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The design and development of a digital library involves different stakeholders, such as: information architects, librarians, and domain experts, who need to agree on a common language to describe, discuss, and negotiate the services the library has to offer. To this end, high-level, language-neutral models have to be devised. Metamodeling techniques favor the definition of domainspecific visual languages through which stakeholders can share their views and directly manipulate representations of the domain entities. This paper describes CRADLE (Cooperative-Relational Approach to Digital Library Environments, a metamodel-based framework and visual language for the definition of notions and services related to the development of digital libraries. A collection of tools allows the automatic generation of several services, defined with the CRADLE visual language, and of the graphical user interfaces providing access to them for the final user. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated by presenting digital libraries generated with CRADLE, while the CRADLE environment has been evaluated by using the cognitive dimensions framework.

Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.

1978-12-01

Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.

A logic-based dynamic modeling approach to explicate the evolution of the central dogma of molecular biology.

Science.gov (United States)

Jafari, Mohieddin; Ansari-Pour, Naser; Azimzadeh, Sadegh; Mirzaie, Mehdi

It is nearly half a century past the age of the introduction of the Central Dogma (CD) of molecular biology. This biological axiom has been developed and currently appears to be all the more complex. In this study, we modified CD by adding further species to the CD information flow and mathematically expressed CD within a dynamic framework by using Boolean network based on its present-day and 1965 editions. We show that the enhancement of the Dogma not only now entails a higher level of complexity, but it also shows a higher level of robustness, thus far more consistent with the nature of biological systems. Using this mathematical modeling approach, we put forward a logic-based expression of our conceptual view of molecular biology. Finally, we show that such biological concepts can be converted into dynamic mathematical models using a logic-based approach and thus may be useful as a framework for improving static conceptual models in biology.

A logic-based dynamic modeling approach to explicate the evolution of the central dogma of molecular biology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohieddin Jafari

Full Text Available It is nearly half a century past the age of the introduction of the Central Dogma (CD of molecular biology. This biological axiom has been developed and currently appears to be all the more complex. In this study, we modified CD by adding further species to the CD information flow and mathematically expressed CD within a dynamic framework by using Boolean network based on its present-day and 1965 editions. We show that the enhancement of the Dogma not only now entails a higher level of complexity, but it also shows a higher level of robustness, thus far more consistent with the nature of biological systems. Using this mathematical modeling approach, we put forward a logic-based expression of our conceptual view of molecular biology. Finally, we show that such biological concepts can be converted into dynamic mathematical models using a logic-based approach and thus may be useful as a framework for improving static conceptual models in biology.

Approaches to learning for the ANZCA Final Examination and validation of the revised Study Process Questionnaire in specialist medical training.

Science.gov (United States)

Weller, J M; Henning, M; Civil, N; Lavery, L; Boyd, M J; Jolly, B

2013-09-01

When evaluating assessments, the impact on learning is often overlooked. Approaches to learning can be deep, surface and strategic. To provide insights into exam quality, we investigated the learning approaches taken by trainees preparing for the Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists (ANZCA) Final Exam. The revised two-factor Study Process Questionnaire (R-SPQ-2F) was modified and validated for this context and was administered to ANZCA advanced trainees. Additional questions were asked about perceived value for anaesthetic practice, study time and approaches to learning for each exam component. Overall, 236 of 690 trainees responded (34%). Responses indicated both deep and surface approaches to learning with a clear preponderance of deep approaches. The anaesthetic viva was valued most highly and the multiple choice question component the least. Despite this, respondents spent the most time studying for the multiple choice questions. The traditionally low short answer questions pass rate could not be explained by limited study time, perceived lack of value or study approaches. Written responses suggested that preparation for multiple choice questions was characterised by a surface approach, with rote memorisation of past questions. Minimal reference was made to the ANZCA syllabus as a guide for learning. These findings indicate that, although trainees found the exam generally relevant to practice and adopted predominantly deep learning approaches, there was considerable variation between the four components. These results provide data with which to review the existing ANZCA Final Exam and comparative data for future studies of the revisions to the ANZCA curriculum and exam process.

On a model-based approach to radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waligorski, M.P.R.

2002-01-01

There is a preoccupation with linearity and absorbed dose as the basic quantifiers of radiation hazard. An alternative is the fluence approach, whereby radiation hazard may be evaluated, at least in principle, via an appropriate action cross section. In order to compare these approaches, it may be useful to discuss them as quantitative descriptors of survival and transformation-like endpoints in cell cultures in vitro - a system thought to be relevant to modelling radiation hazard. If absorbed dose is used to quantify these biological endpoints, then non-linear dose-effect relations have to be described, and, e.g. after doses of densely ionising radiation, dose-correction factors as high as 20 are required. In the fluence approach only exponential effect-fluence relationships can be readily described. Neither approach alone exhausts the scope of experimentally observed dependencies of effect on dose or fluence. Two-component models, incorporating a suitable mixture of the two approaches, are required. An example of such a model is the cellular track structure theory developed by Katz over thirty years ago. The practical consequences of modelling radiation hazard using this mixed two-component approach are discussed. (author)

Mathematical Modeling Approaches in Plant Metabolomics.

Science.gov (United States)

Fürtauer, Lisa; Weiszmann, Jakob; Weckwerth, Wolfram; Nägele, Thomas

2018-01-01

The experimental analysis of a plant metabolome typically results in a comprehensive and multidimensional data set. To interpret metabolomics data in the context of biochemical regulation and environmental fluctuation, various approaches of mathematical modeling have been developed and have proven useful. In this chapter, a general introduction to mathematical modeling is presented and discussed in context of plant metabolism. A particular focus is laid on the suitability of mathematical approaches to functionally integrate plant metabolomics data in a metabolic network and combine it with other biochemical or physiological parameters.

Effective Classroom Management and Instruction: An Exploration of Models. Executive Summary of Final Report.

Science.gov (United States)

Evertson, Carolyn M.; And Others

A summary is presented of the final report, "Effective Classroom Management and Instruction: An Exploration of Models." The final report presents a set of linked investigations of the effects of training teachers in effective classroom management practices in a series of school-based workshops. Four purposes were addressed by the study: (1) to…

Meta-analysis a structural equation modeling approach

CERN Document Server

Cheung, Mike W-L

2015-01-01

Presents a novel approach to conducting meta-analysis using structural equation modeling. Structural equation modeling (SEM) and meta-analysis are two powerful statistical methods in the educational, social, behavioral, and medical sciences. They are often treated as two unrelated topics in the literature. This book presents a unified framework on analyzing meta-analytic data within the SEM framework, and illustrates how to conduct meta-analysis using the metaSEM package in the R statistical environment. Meta-Analysis: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach begins by introducing the impo

An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study (Final Report, 2010)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, An Approach to Using Toxicogenomic Data in U.S. EPA Human Health Risk Assessments: A Dibutyl Phthalate Case Study. This report outlines an approach to evaluate genomic data for use in risk assessment and a case study to ...

Economic and industrial development. EID - EMPLOY. Final report. Task 1. Review of approaches for employment impact assessment of renewable energy deployment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Breitschopf, Barbara [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer System- und Innovationsforschung (ISI), Karlsruhe (Germany); Nathani, Carsten; Resch, Gustav

2011-11-15

full picture of the impacts of RE deployment on the total economy - covering all economic activities like production, service and consumption (industries, households). To get the number of additional jobs caused by RE deployment, they compare a situation without RE (baseline or counterfactual) to a situation under a strong RE deployment. In a second step, we characterize the studies inter alia by their scope, activities and impacts and show the relevant positive and negative effects that are included in gross or net impact assessment studies. The effects are briefly described in Table 0-1. While gross studies mainly include the positive effects listed here, net studies in general include positive and negative effects. Third, we distinguish between methodological approaches assessing impacts. We observe that the more effects are incorporated in the approach, the more data are needed, the more complex and demanding the methodological approach becomes and the more the impacts capture effects of and in the whole economy - representing net impacts. A simple approach requires a few data and allows answering simple questions concerning the impact on the RE-industry - representing gross impacts. We identify six main approaches, three for gross and three for net impacts. They are depicted in Figure 0-2. The methodological approaches are characterized by their effects captured, the complexity of model and additional data requirement (besides data on RE investments, capacities and generation) as well as by their depicted impacts reflecting the economic comprehensiveness. A detailed overview of the diverse studies in table form is given in the Annex to this report. Finally, we suggest to elaborate guidelines for the simple EF-approach, the gross IO-modelling and net IO-modelling approach. The first approach enables policy makers to do a quick assessment on gross effects, while the second is a more sophisticated approach for gross effects. The third approach builds on the gross IO

Computational and Game-Theoretic Approaches for Modeling Bounded Rationality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

L. Waltman (Ludo)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis thesis studies various computational and game-theoretic approaches to economic modeling. Unlike traditional approaches to economic modeling, the approaches studied in this thesis do not rely on the assumption that economic agents behave in a fully rational way. Instead, economic

The Implementation of Discovery Learning Model with Scientific Learning Approach to Improve Students’ Critical Thinking in Learning History

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edi Nurcahyo

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Historical learning has not reached optimal in the learning process. It is caused by the history teachers’ learning model has not used the innovative learning models. Furthermore, it supported by the perception of students to the history subject because it does not become final exam (UN subject so it makes less improvement and builds less critical thinking in students’ daily learning. This is due to the lack of awareness of historical events and the availability of history books for students and teachers in the library are still lacking. Discovery learning with scientific approach encourages students to solve problems actively and able to improve students' critical thinking skills with scientific approach so student can build scientific thinking include observing, asking, reasoning, trying, and networking   Keywords: discovery learning, scientific, critical thinking

A degradation approach to accelerate simulations to steady-state in a 3-D tracer transport model of the global ocean

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aumont, O.; Orr, J.C.; Marti, O. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. de Modelisation du Climat et de l`Environnement; Jamous, D.; Monfray, P. [Centre des Faibles Radioactivites, Laboratoire mixte CNRS-CEA, L`Orme des Merisiers, Bt. 709/LMCE, CE Saclay, F-91191 Gif sur Yvette Cedex (France); Madec, G. [Laboratoire d`Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, (CNRS/ORSTOM/UPMC) Universite Paris VI, 4 place Jussieu, Paris (France)

1998-02-01

We have developed a new method to accelerate tracer simulations to steady-state in a 3D global ocean model, run off-line. Using this technique, our simulations for natural {sup 14}C ran 17 times faster when compared to those made with the standard nonaccelerated approach. For maximum acceleration we wish to initialize the model with tracer fields that are as close as possible to the final equilibrium solution. Our initial tracer fields were derived by judiciously constructing a much faster, lower-resolution (degraded), off-line model from advective and turbulent fields predicted from the parent on-line model, an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). No on-line version of the degraded model exists; it is based entirely on results from the parent OGCM. Degradation was made horizontally over sets of four adjacent grid-cell squares for each vertical layer of the parent model. However, final resolution did not suffer because as a second step, after allowing the degraded model to reach equilibrium, we used its tracer output to reinitialize the parent model (at the original resolution). After reinitialization, the parent model must then be integrated only to a few hundred years before reaching equilibrium. To validate our degradation-integration technique (DEGINT), we compared {sup 14}C results from runs with and without this approach. Differences are less than 10 permille throughout 98.5% of the ocean volume. Predicted natural {sup 14}C appears reasonable over most of the ocean. In the Atlantic, modeled {Delta}{sup 14}C indicates that as observed, the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) fills the deep North Atlantic, and Antartic Intermediate Water (AAIW) infiltrates northward. (orig.) With 12 figs., 1 tab., 42 refs.

Modeling healthcare authorization and claim submissions using the openEHR dual-model approach

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background The TISS standard is a set of mandatory forms and electronic messages for healthcare authorization and claim submissions among healthcare plans and providers in Brazil. It is not based on formal models as the new generation of health informatics standards suggests. The objective of this paper is to model the TISS in terms of the openEHR archetype-based approach and integrate it into a patient-centered EHR architecture. Methods Three approaches were adopted to model TISS. In the first approach, a set of archetypes was designed using ENTRY subclasses. In the second one, a set of archetypes was designed using exclusively ADMIN_ENTRY and CLUSTERs as their root classes. In the third approach, the openEHR ADMIN_ENTRY is extended with classes designed for authorization and claim submissions, and an ISM_TRANSITION attribute is added to the COMPOSITION class. Another set of archetypes was designed based on this model. For all three approaches, templates were designed to represent the TISS forms. Results The archetypes based on the openEHR RM (Reference Model) can represent all TISS data structures. The extended model adds subclasses and an attribute to the COMPOSITION class to represent information on authorization and claim submissions. The archetypes based on all three approaches have similar structures, although rooted in different classes. The extended openEHR RM model is more semantically aligned with the concepts involved in a claim submission, but may disrupt interoperability with other systems and the current tools must be adapted to deal with it. Conclusions Modeling the TISS standard by means of the openEHR approach makes it aligned with ISO recommendations and provides a solid foundation on which the TISS can evolve. Although there are few administrative archetypes available, the openEHR RM is expressive enough to represent the TISS standard. This paper focuses on the TISS but its results may be extended to other billing processes. A complete

A piecewise modeling approach for climate sensitivity studies: Tests with a shallow-water model

Science.gov (United States)

Shao, Aimei; Qiu, Chongjian; Niu, Guo-Yue

2015-10-01

In model-based climate sensitivity studies, model errors may grow during continuous long-term integrations in both the "reference" and "perturbed" states and hence the climate sensitivity (defined as the difference between the two states). To reduce the errors, we propose a piecewise modeling approach that splits the continuous long-term simulation into subintervals of sequential short-term simulations, and updates the modeled states through re-initialization at the end of each subinterval. In the re-initialization processes, this approach updates the reference state with analysis data and updates the perturbed states with the sum of analysis data and the difference between the perturbed and the reference states, thereby improving the credibility of the modeled climate sensitivity. We conducted a series of experiments with a shallow-water model to evaluate the advantages of the piecewise approach over the conventional continuous modeling approach. We then investigated the impacts of analysis data error and subinterval length used in the piecewise approach on the simulations of the reference and perturbed states as well as the resulting climate sensitivity. The experiments show that the piecewise approach reduces the errors produced by the conventional continuous modeling approach, more effectively when the analysis data error becomes smaller and the subinterval length is shorter. In addition, we employed a nudging assimilation technique to solve possible spin-up problems caused by re-initializations by using analysis data that contain inconsistent errors between mass and velocity. The nudging technique can effectively diminish the spin-up problem, resulting in a higher modeling skill.

A Dynamic Approach to Modeling Dependence Between Human Failure Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Laboratory

2015-09-01

In practice, most HRA methods use direct dependence from THERP—the notion that error be- gets error, and one human failure event (HFE) may increase the likelihood of subsequent HFEs. In this paper, we approach dependence from a simulation perspective in which the effects of human errors are dynamically modeled. There are three key concepts that play into this modeling: (1) Errors are driven by performance shaping factors (PSFs). In this context, the error propagation is not a result of the presence of an HFE yielding overall increases in subsequent HFEs. Rather, it is shared PSFs that cause dependence. (2) PSFs have qualities of lag and latency. These two qualities are not currently considered in HRA methods that use PSFs. Yet, to model the effects of PSFs, it is not simply a matter of identifying the discrete effects of a particular PSF on performance. The effects of PSFs must be considered temporally, as the PSFs will have a range of effects across the event sequence. (3) Finally, there is the concept of error spilling. When PSFs are activated, they not only have temporal effects but also lateral effects on other PSFs, leading to emergent errors. This paper presents the framework for tying together these dynamic dependence concepts.

Do recommender systems benefit users? a modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Yeung, Chi Ho

2016-04-01

Recommender systems are present in many web applications to guide purchase choices. They increase sales and benefit sellers, but whether they benefit customers by providing relevant products remains less explored. While in many cases the recommended products are relevant to users, in other cases customers may be tempted to purchase the products only because they are recommended. Here we introduce a model to examine the benefit of recommender systems for users, and find that recommendations from the system can be equivalent to random draws if one always follows the recommendations and seldom purchases according to his or her own preference. Nevertheless, with sufficient information about user preferences, recommendations become accurate and an abrupt transition to this accurate regime is observed for some of the studied algorithms. On the other hand, we find that high estimated accuracy indicated by common accuracy metrics is not necessarily equivalent to high real accuracy in matching users with products. This disagreement between estimated and real accuracy serves as an alarm for operators and researchers who evaluate recommender systems merely with accuracy metrics. We tested our model with a real dataset and observed similar behaviors. Finally, a recommendation approach with improved accuracy is suggested. These results imply that recommender systems can benefit users, but the more frequently a user purchases the recommended products, the less relevant the recommended products are in matching user taste.

A Discrete Monetary Economic Growth Model with the MIU Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin Zhang

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes an alternative approach to economic growth with money. The production side is the same as the Solow model, the Ramsey model, and the Tobin model. But we deal with behavior of consumers differently from the traditional approaches. The model is influenced by the money-in-the-utility (MIU approach in monetary economics. It provides a mechanism of endogenous saving which the Solow model lacks and avoids the assumption of adding up utility over a period of time upon which the Ramsey approach is based.

Coupling model and solving approach for performance evaluation of natural draft counter-flow wet cooling towers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Wei

2016-01-01

Full Text Available When searching for the optimum condenser cooling water flow in a thermal power plant with natural draft cooling towers, it is essential to evaluate the outlet water temperature of cooling towers when the cooling water flow and inlet water temperature change. However, the air outlet temperature and tower draft or inlet air velocity are strongly coupled for natural draft cooling towers. Traditional methods, such as trial and error method, graphic method and iterative methods are not simple and efficient enough to be used for plant practice. In this paper, we combine Merkel equation with draft equation, and develop the coupled description for performance evaluation of natural draft cooling towers. This model contains two inputs: the cooling water flow, the inlet cooling water temperature and two outputs: the outlet water temperature, the inlet air velocity, equivalent to tower draft. In this model, we furthermore put forward a soft-sensing algorithm to calculate the total drag coefficient instead of empirical correlations. Finally, we design an iterative approach to solve this coupling model, and illustrate three cases to prove that the coupling model and solving approach proposed in our paper are effective for cooling tower performance evaluation.

Nonperturbative approach to the attractive Hubbard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, S.; Tremblay, A.-M. S.

2001-01-01

A nonperturbative approach to the single-band attractive Hubbard model is presented in the general context of functional-derivative approaches to many-body theories. As in previous work on the repulsive model, the first step is based on a local-field-type ansatz, on enforcement of the Pauli principle and a number of crucial sumrules. The Mermin-Wagner theorem in two dimensions is automatically satisfied. At this level, two-particle self-consistency has been achieved. In the second step of the approximation, an improved expression for the self-energy is obtained by using the results of the first step in an exact expression for the self-energy, where the high- and low-frequency behaviors appear separately. The result is a cooperon-like formula. The required vertex corrections are included in this self-energy expression, as required by the absence of a Migdal theorem for this problem. Other approaches to the attractive Hubbard model are critically compared. Physical consequences of the present approach and agreement with Monte Carlo simulations are demonstrated in the accompanying paper (following this one)

Search for the standard model Higgs boson in tau final states

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Abazov, V.M.; et al., [Unknown; Ancu, L.S.; de Jong, S.J.; Filthaut, F.; Galea, C.F.; Hegeman, J.G.; Houben, P.; Meijer, M.M.; Svoisky, P.; van den Berg, P.J.; van Leeuwen, W.M.

2009-01-01

We present a search for the standard model Higgs boson using hadronically decaying tau leptons, in 1 fb(-1) of data collected with the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron p(p)over-bar collider. We select two final states: tau(+/-) plus missing transverse energy and b jets, and tau(+)tau(-) plus

Reservoir architecture modeling: Nonstationary models for quantitative geological characterization. Final report, April 30, 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerr, D.; Epili, D.; Kelkar, M.; Redner, R.; Reynolds, A.

1998-12-01

The study was comprised of four investigations: facies architecture; seismic modeling and interpretation; Markov random field and Boolean models for geologic modeling of facies distribution; and estimation of geological architecture using the Bayesian/maximum entropy approach. This report discusses results from all four investigations. Investigations were performed using data from the E and F units of the Middle Frio Formation, Stratton Field, one of the major reservoir intervals in the Gulf Coast Basin.

Learning Approaches - Final Report Sub-Project 4

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dirckinck-Holmfeld, Lone; Rodríguez Illera, José Luis; Escofet, Anna

2007-01-01

The overall aim of Subproject 4 is to apply learning approaches that are appropriate and applicable using ICT. The task is made up of two components 4.1 dealing with learning approaches (see deliverable 4.1), and component 4.2 application of ICT (see deliverable 4.2, deliverable 4.3 & deliverable...

Fractal approach to computer-analytical modelling of tree crown

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berezovskaya, F.S.; Karev, G.P.; Kisliuk, O.F.; Khlebopros, R.G.; Tcelniker, Yu.L.

1993-09-01

In this paper we discuss three approaches to the modeling of a tree crown development. These approaches are experimental (i.e. regressive), theoretical (i.e. analytical) and simulation (i.e. computer) modeling. The common assumption of these is that a tree can be regarded as one of the fractal objects which is the collection of semi-similar objects and combines the properties of two- and three-dimensional bodies. We show that a fractal measure of crown can be used as the link between the mathematical models of crown growth and light propagation through canopy. The computer approach gives the possibility to visualize a crown development and to calibrate the model on experimental data. In the paper different stages of the above-mentioned approaches are described. The experimental data for spruce, the description of computer system for modeling and the variant of computer model are presented. (author). 9 refs, 4 figs

Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

1993-01-01

The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

A moving approach for the Vector Hysteron Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardelli, E. [Department of Engineering, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti 93, 06125 Perugia (Italy); Faba, A., E-mail: antonio.faba@unipg.it [Department of Engineering, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti 93, 06125 Perugia (Italy); Laudani, A. [Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via V. Volterra 62, 00146 Rome (Italy); Quondam Antonio, S. [Department of Engineering, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti 93, 06125 Perugia (Italy); Riganti Fulginei, F.; Salvini, A. [Department of Engineering, Roma Tre University, Via V. Volterra 62, 00146 Rome (Italy)

2016-04-01

A moving approach for the VHM (Vector Hysteron Model) is here described, to reconstruct both scalar and rotational magnetization of electrical steels with weak anisotropy, such as the non oriented grain Silicon steel. The hysterons distribution is postulated to be function of the magnetization state of the material, in order to overcome the practical limitation of the congruency property of the standard VHM approach. By using this formulation and a suitable accommodation procedure, the results obtained indicate that the model is accurate, in particular in reproducing the experimental behavior approaching to the saturation region, allowing a real improvement respect to the previous approach.

It's the parameters, stupid! Moving beyond multi-model and multi-physics approaches to characterize and reduce predictive uncertainty in process-based hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Freer, Jim

2014-05-01

Multi-model and multi-physics approaches are a popular tool in environmental modelling, with many studies focusing on optimally combining output from multiple model simulations to reduce predictive errors and better characterize predictive uncertainty. However, a careful and systematic analysis of different hydrological models reveals that individual models are simply small permutations of a master modeling template, and inter-model differences are overwhelmed by uncertainty in the choice of the parameter values in the model equations. Furthermore, inter-model differences do not explicitly represent the uncertainty in modeling a given process, leading to many situations where different models provide the wrong results for the same reasons. In other cases, the available morphological data does not support the very fine spatial discretization of the landscape that typifies many modern applications of process-based models. To make the uncertainty characterization problem worse, the uncertain parameter values in process-based models are often fixed (hard-coded), and the models lack the agility necessary to represent the tremendous heterogeneity in natural systems. This presentation summarizes results from a systematic analysis of uncertainty in process-based hydrological models, where we explicitly analyze the myriad of subjective decisions made throughout both the model development and parameter estimation process. Results show that much of the uncertainty is aleatory in nature - given a "complete" representation of dominant hydrologic processes, uncertainty in process parameterizations can be represented using an ensemble of model parameters. Epistemic uncertainty associated with process interactions and scaling behavior is still important, and these uncertainties can be represented using an ensemble of different spatial configurations. Finally, uncertainty in forcing data can be represented using ensemble methods for spatial meteorological analysis. Our systematic

Personalization of models with many model parameters: an efficient sensitivity analysis approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Donders, W P; Huberts, W; van de Vosse, F N; Delhaas, T

2015-10-01

Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis are indispensable for patient-specific applications of models that enhance diagnosis or aid decision-making. Variance-based sensitivity analysis methods, which apportion each fraction of the output uncertainty (variance) to the effects of individual input parameters or their interactions, are considered the gold standard. The variance portions are called the Sobol sensitivity indices and can be estimated by a Monte Carlo (MC) approach (e.g., Saltelli's method [1]) or by employing a metamodel (e.g., the (generalized) polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE) [2, 3]). All these methods require a large number of model evaluations when estimating the Sobol sensitivity indices for models with many parameters [4]. To reduce the computational cost, we introduce a two-step approach. In the first step, a subset of important parameters is identified for each output of interest using the screening method of Morris [5]. In the second step, a quantitative variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed using gPCE. Efficient sampling strategies are introduced to minimize the number of model runs required to obtain the sensitivity indices for models considering multiple outputs. The approach is tested using a model that was developed for predicting post-operative flows after creation of a vascular access for renal failure patients. We compare the sensitivity indices obtained with the novel two-step approach with those obtained from a reference analysis that applies Saltelli's MC method. The two-step approach was found to yield accurate estimates of the sensitivity indices at two orders of magnitude lower computational cost. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stochastic approaches to inflation model building

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ramirez, Erandy; Liddle, Andrew R.

2005-01-01

While inflation gives an appealing explanation of observed cosmological data, there are a wide range of different inflation models, providing differing predictions for the initial perturbations. Typically models are motivated either by fundamental physics considerations or by simplicity. An alternative is to generate large numbers of models via a random generation process, such as the flow equations approach. The flow equations approach is known to predict a definite structure to the observational predictions. In this paper, we first demonstrate a more efficient implementation of the flow equations exploiting an analytic solution found by Liddle (2003). We then consider alternative stochastic methods of generating large numbers of inflation models, with the aim of testing whether the structures generated by the flow equations are robust. We find that while typically there remains some concentration of points in the observable plane under the different methods, there is significant variation in the predictions amongst the methods considered

An approach to 3D model fusion in GIS systems and its application in a future ECDIS

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Tao; Zhao, Depeng; Pan, Mingyang

2016-04-01

Three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics technology is widely used in various areas and causes profound changes. As an information carrier, 3D models are becoming increasingly important. The use of 3D models greatly helps to improve the cartographic expression and design. 3D models are more visually efficient, quicker and easier to understand and they can express more detailed geographical information. However, it is hard to efficiently and precisely fuse 3D models in local systems. The purpose of this study is to propose an automatic and precise approach to fuse 3D models in geographic information systems (GIS). It is the basic premise for subsequent uses of 3D models in local systems, such as attribute searching, spatial analysis, and so on. The basic steps of our research are: (1) pose adjustment by principal component analysis (PCA); (2) silhouette extraction by simple mesh silhouette extraction and silhouette merger; (3) size adjustment; (4) position matching. Finally, we implement the above methods in our system Automotive Intelligent Chart (AIC) 3D Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS). The fusion approach we propose is a common method and each calculation step is carefully designed. This approach solves the problem of cross-platform model fusion. 3D models can be from any source. They may be stored in the local cache or retrieved from Internet, or may be manually created by different tools or automatically generated by different programs. The system can be any kind of 3D GIS system.

An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecast.

Science.gov (United States)

Alessandrini, S.; Decimi, G.; Hagedorn, R.; Sperati, S.

2010-09-01

The wind power forecast of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast is based on a mesoscale meteorological models that provides the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. The corrected wind data are then used as input in the wind farm power curve to obtain the power forecast. These computations require historical time series of wind measured data (by an anemometer located in the wind farm or on the nacelle) and power data in order to be able to perform the statistical analysis on the past. For this purpose a Neural Network (NN) is trained on the past data and then applied in the forecast task. Considering that the anemometer measurements are not always available in a wind farm a different approach has also been adopted. A training of the NN to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has also been performed. The normalized RMSE forecast error seems to be lower in most cases by following the second approach. We have examined two wind farms, one located in Denmark on flat terrain and one located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). In both cases we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by using two or more models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI, HIRLAM). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Moreover the use of a deterministic global model, (e.g. ECMWF deterministic

Continued development of modeling tools and theory for rf heating. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smithe, D.N.

1998-01-01

The work performed during the grant has been reported long before this date, specifically in: (1) the grant's annual performance report for 1991, MRC/WDC-R-277; (2) the published AIP Conference Proceedings number-sign 244, Radio Frequency Power in Plasmas, Charleston, SC 1991, ''Evaluation of Wave Dispersion, Mode-Conversion, and Damping for ECRH with Exact Relativistic Corrections,'' by D.N. Smithe and P.L. Colestock; and (3) an unpublished paper entitled ''Temperature Anisotropy and Rotation Upgrades to the ICRF Modules in SNAP and TRANSP'', presented at the 1992 ICRF Modeling and Theory Workshop, at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. This final report contains copies of number (1). The specifics of the grant's final months' activities, which to the authors recollection have never been reported to the DOE, are as follows. The original grant, which was to terminate August 15, 1991, was extended without additional funds to October 31, 1992. The primary reason for the extension was to permit attendance at the 1992 ICRF Modeling and Theory Workshop at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL), which was finally held August 17--18, 1992, after having been rescheduled several times during the summer of 1992. The body of this report contains copies of the 1991 annual report, which gives detailed discussion of the work accomplished

Modeling healthcare authorization and claim submissions using the openEHR dual-model approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Freire Sergio M

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The TISS standard is a set of mandatory forms and electronic messages for healthcare authorization and claim submissions among healthcare plans and providers in Brazil. It is not based on formal models as the new generation of health informatics standards suggests. The objective of this paper is to model the TISS in terms of the openEHR archetype-based approach and integrate it into a patient-centered EHR architecture. Methods Three approaches were adopted to model TISS. In the first approach, a set of archetypes was designed using ENTRY subclasses. In the second one, a set of archetypes was designed using exclusively ADMIN_ENTRY and CLUSTERs as their root classes. In the third approach, the openEHR ADMIN_ENTRY is extended with classes designed for authorization and claim submissions, and an ISM_TRANSITION attribute is added to the COMPOSITION class. Another set of archetypes was designed based on this model. For all three approaches, templates were designed to represent the TISS forms. Results The archetypes based on the openEHR RM (Reference Model can represent all TISS data structures. The extended model adds subclasses and an attribute to the COMPOSITION class to represent information on authorization and claim submissions. The archetypes based on all three approaches have similar structures, although rooted in different classes. The extended openEHR RM model is more semantically aligned with the concepts involved in a claim submission, but may disrupt interoperability with other systems and the current tools must be adapted to deal with it. Conclusions Modeling the TISS standard by means of the openEHR approach makes it aligned with ISO recommendations and provides a solid foundation on which the TISS can evolve. Although there are few administrative archetypes available, the openEHR RM is expressive enough to represent the TISS standard. This paper focuses on the TISS but its results may be extended to other billing

A new approach for modeling the peak utility impacts from a proposed CUAC standard

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi; Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris; Chan, Peter; Coughlin, Katie

2004-08-01

This report describes a new Berkeley Lab approach for modeling the likely peak electricity load reductions from proposed energy efficiency programs in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This method is presented in the context of the commercial unitary air conditioning (CUAC) energy efficiency standards. A previous report investigating the residential central air conditioning (RCAC) load shapes in NEMS revealed that the peak reduction results were lower than expected. This effect was believed to be due in part to the presence of the squelch, a program algorithm designed to ensure changes in the system load over time are consistent with the input historic trend. The squelch applies a system load-scaling factor that scales any differences between the end-use bottom-up and system loads to maintain consistency with historic trends. To obtain more accurate peak reduction estimates, a new approach for modeling the impact of peaky end uses in NEMS-BT has been developed. The new approach decrements the system load directly, reducing the impact of the squelch on the final results. This report also discusses a number of additional factors, in particular non-coincidence between end-use loads and system loads as represented within NEMS, and their impacts on the peak reductions calculated by NEMS. Using Berkeley Lab's new double-decrement approach reduces the conservation load factor (CLF) on an input load decrement from 25% down to 19% for a SEER 13 CUAC trial standard level, as seen in NEMS-BT output. About 4 GW more in peak capacity reduction results from this new approach as compared to Berkeley Lab's traditional end-use decrement approach, which relied solely on lowering end use energy consumption. The new method has been fully implemented and tested in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 (AEO2003) version of NEMS and will routinely be applied to future versions. This capability is now available for use in future end-use efficiency or other policy analysis

Topological Approach for Predicting the Properties of Glasses

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Smedskjær, Morten Mattrup; Mauro, John C.; Yue, Yuanzheng

. Moreover, the modeling approach enables a detailed understanding of the microscopic mechanisms governing macroscopic properties. Finally, we also present a phenomenological model offering an improved description of the composition and temperature dependence of the shear viscosity of multicomponent liquids......, for which the existing analytical models currently do not apply....

Research on Turbofan Engine Model above Idle State Based on NARX Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Bing; Shu, Wenjun

2017-03-01

The nonlinear model for turbofan engine above idle state based on NARX is studied. Above all, the data sets for the JT9D engine from existing model are obtained via simulation. Then, a nonlinear modeling scheme based on NARX is proposed and several models with different parameters are built according to the former data sets. Finally, the simulations have been taken to verify the precise and dynamic performance the models, the results show that the NARX model can well reflect the dynamics characteristic of the turbofan engine with high accuracy.

Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

2008-09-01

The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

A BEHAVIORAL-APPROACH TO LINEAR EXACT MODELING

NARCIS (Netherlands)

ANTOULAS, AC; WILLEMS, JC

1993-01-01

The behavioral approach to system theory provides a parameter-free framework for the study of the general problem of linear exact modeling and recursive modeling. The main contribution of this paper is the solution of the (continuous-time) polynomial-exponential time series modeling problem. Both

Modelling the Cast Component Weight in Hot Chamber Die Casting using Combined Taguchi and Buckingham's π Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Rupinder

2018-02-01

Hot chamber (HC) die casting process is one of the most widely used commercial processes for the casting of low temperature metals and alloys. This process gives near-net shape product with high dimensional accuracy. However in actual field environment the best settings of input parameters is often conflicting as the shape and size of the casting changes and one have to trade off among various output parameters like hardness, dimensional accuracy, casting defects, microstructure etc. So for online inspection of the cast components properties (without affecting the production line) the weight measurement has been established as one of the cost effective method (as the difference in weight of sound and unsound casting reflects the possible casting defects) in field environment. In the present work at first stage the effect of three input process parameters (namely: pressure at 2nd phase in HC die casting; metal pouring temperature and die opening time) has been studied for optimizing the cast component weight `W' as output parameter in form of macro model based upon Taguchi L9 OA. After this Buckingham's π approach has been applied on Taguchi based macro model for the development of micro model. This study highlights the Taguchi-Buckingham based combined approach as a case study (for conversion of macro model into micro model) by identification of optimum levels of input parameters (based on Taguchi approach) and development of mathematical model (based on Buckingham's π approach). Finally developed mathematical model can be used for predicting W in HC die casting process with more flexibility. The results of study highlights second degree polynomial equation for predicting cast component weight in HC die casting and suggest that pressure at 2nd stage is one of the most contributing factors for controlling the casting defect/weight of casting.

Development of a subway operation incident delay model using accelerated failure time approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Jinxian; Zheng, Yang; Yan, Xuedong; Meng, Qiang

2014-12-01

This study aims to develop a subway operational incident delay model using the parametric accelerated time failure (AFT) approach. Six parametric AFT models including the log-logistic, lognormal and Weibull models, with fixed and random parameters are built based on the Hong Kong subway operation incident data from 2005 to 2012, respectively. In addition, the Weibull model with gamma heterogeneity is also considered to compare the model performance. The goodness-of-fit test results show that the log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is most suitable for estimating the subway incident delay. First, the results show that a longer subway operation incident delay is highly correlated with the following factors: power cable failure, signal cable failure, turnout communication disruption and crashes involving a casualty. Vehicle failure makes the least impact on the increment of subway operation incident delay. According to these results, several possible measures, such as the use of short-distance and wireless communication technology (e.g., Wifi and Zigbee) are suggested to shorten the delay caused by subway operation incidents. Finally, the temporal transferability test results show that the developed log-logistic AFT model with random parameters is stable over time. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Total System Performance Assessment - License Application Methods and Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McNeish, J.

2003-01-01

''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES FOR MODELING THE RURAL SETTLEMENT DEVELOPMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gorbenkova Elena Vladimirovna

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Subject: the paper describes the research results on validation of a rural settlement developmental model. The basic methods and approaches for solving the problem of assessment of the urban and rural settlement development efficiency are considered. Research objectives: determination of methodological approaches to modeling and creating a model for the development of rural settlements. Materials and methods: domestic and foreign experience in modeling the territorial development of urban and rural settlements and settlement structures was generalized. The motivation for using the Pentagon-model for solving similar problems was demonstrated. Based on a systematic analysis of existing development models of urban and rural settlements as well as the authors-developed method for assessing the level of agro-towns development, the systems/factors that are necessary for a rural settlement sustainable development are identified. Results: we created the rural development model which consists of five major systems that include critical factors essential for achieving a sustainable development of a settlement system: ecological system, economic system, administrative system, anthropogenic (physical system and social system (supra-structure. The methodological approaches for creating an evaluation model of rural settlements development were revealed; the basic motivating factors that provide interrelations of systems were determined; the critical factors for each subsystem were identified and substantiated. Such an approach was justified by the composition of tasks for territorial planning of the local and state administration levels. The feasibility of applying the basic Pentagon-model, which was successfully used for solving the analogous problems of sustainable development, was shown. Conclusions: the resulting model can be used for identifying and substantiating the critical factors for rural sustainable development and also become the basis of

A new approach for developing adjoint models

Science.gov (United States)

Farrell, P. E.; Funke, S. W.

2011-12-01

Many data assimilation algorithms rely on the availability of gradients of misfit functionals, which can be efficiently computed with adjoint models. However, the development of an adjoint model for a complex geophysical code is generally very difficult. Algorithmic differentiation (AD, also called automatic differentiation) offers one strategy for simplifying this task: it takes the abstraction that a model is a sequence of primitive instructions, each of which may be differentiated in turn. While extremely successful, this low-level abstraction runs into time-consuming difficulties when applied to the whole codebase of a model, such as differentiating through linear solves, model I/O, calls to external libraries, language features that are unsupported by the AD tool, and the use of multiple programming languages. While these difficulties can be overcome, it requires a large amount of technical expertise and an intimate familiarity with both the AD tool and the model. An alternative to applying the AD tool to the whole codebase is to assemble the discrete adjoint equations and use these to compute the necessary gradients. With this approach, the AD tool must be applied to the nonlinear assembly operators, which are typically small, self-contained units of the codebase. The disadvantage of this approach is that the assembly of the discrete adjoint equations is still very difficult to perform correctly, especially for complex multiphysics models that perform temporal integration; as it stands, this approach is as difficult and time-consuming as applying AD to the whole model. In this work, we have developed a library which greatly simplifies and automates the alternate approach of assembling the discrete adjoint equations. We propose a complementary, higher-level abstraction to that of AD: that a model is a sequence of linear solves. The developer annotates model source code with library calls that build a 'tape' of the operators involved and their dependencies, and

Towards a 3d Spatial Urban Energy Modelling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bahu, J.-M.; Koch, A.; Kremers, E.; Murshed, S. M.

2013-09-01

Today's needs to reduce the environmental impact of energy use impose dramatic changes for energy infrastructure and existing demand patterns (e.g. buildings) corresponding to their specific context. In addition, future energy systems are expected to integrate a considerable share of fluctuating power sources and equally a high share of distributed generation of electricity. Energy system models capable of describing such future systems and allowing the simulation of the impact of these developments thus require a spatial representation in order to reflect the local context and the boundary conditions. This paper describes two recent research approaches developed at EIFER in the fields of (a) geo-localised simulation of heat energy demand in cities based on 3D morphological data and (b) spatially explicit Agent-Based Models (ABM) for the simulation of smart grids. 3D city models were used to assess solar potential and heat energy demand of residential buildings which enable cities to target the building refurbishment potentials. Distributed energy systems require innovative modelling techniques where individual components are represented and can interact. With this approach, several smart grid demonstrators were simulated, where heterogeneous models are spatially represented. Coupling 3D geodata with energy system ABMs holds different advantages for both approaches. On one hand, energy system models can be enhanced with high resolution data from 3D city models and their semantic relations. Furthermore, they allow for spatial analysis and visualisation of the results, with emphasis on spatially and structurally correlations among the different layers (e.g. infrastructure, buildings, administrative zones) to provide an integrated approach. On the other hand, 3D models can benefit from more detailed system description of energy infrastructure, representing dynamic phenomena and high resolution models for energy use at component level. The proposed modelling strategies

Validated Models for Radiation Response and Signal Generation in Scintillators: Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kerisit, Sebastien N.; Gao, Fei; Xie, YuLong; Campbell, Luke W.; Van Ginhoven, Renee M.; Wang, Zhiguo; Prange, Micah P.; Wu, Dangxin

2014-12-01

This Final Report presents work carried out at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) under the project entitled “Validated Models for Radiation Response and Signal Generation in Scintillators” (Project number: PL10-Scin-theor-PD2Jf) and led by Drs. Fei Gao and Sebastien N. Kerisit. This project was divided into four tasks: 1) Electronic response functions (ab initio data model) 2) Electron-hole yield, variance, and spatial distribution 3) Ab initio calculations of information carrier properties 4) Transport of electron-hole pairs and scintillation efficiency Detailed information on the results obtained in each of the four tasks is provided in this Final Report. Furthermore, published peer-reviewed articles based on the work carried under this project are included in Appendix. This work was supported by the National Nuclear Security Administration, Office of Nuclear Nonproliferation Research and Development (DNN R&D/NA-22), of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Jie; Hu, Youmin; Wu, Bo; Wang, Yan; Xie, Fengyun

2017-05-18

The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD). Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features' information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jie Liu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD. Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features’ information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

A new approach towards image based virtual 3D city modeling by using close range photogrammetry

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, S. P.; Jain, K.; Mandla, V. R.

2014-05-01

3D city model is a digital representation of the Earth's surface and it's related objects such as building, tree, vegetation, and some manmade feature belonging to urban area. The demand of 3D city modeling is increasing day to day for various engineering and non-engineering applications. Generally three main image based approaches are using for virtual 3D city models generation. In first approach, researchers used Sketch based modeling, second method is Procedural grammar based modeling and third approach is Close range photogrammetry based modeling. Literature study shows that till date, there is no complete solution available to create complete 3D city model by using images. These image based methods also have limitations This paper gives a new approach towards image based virtual 3D city modeling by using close range photogrammetry. This approach is divided into three sections. First, data acquisition process, second is 3D data processing, and third is data combination process. In data acquisition process, a multi-camera setup developed and used for video recording of an area. Image frames created from video data. Minimum required and suitable video image frame selected for 3D processing. In second section, based on close range photogrammetric principles and computer vision techniques, 3D model of area created. In third section, this 3D model exported to adding and merging of other pieces of large area. Scaling and alignment of 3D model was done. After applying the texturing and rendering on this model, a final photo-realistic textured 3D model created. This 3D model transferred into walk-through model or in movie form. Most of the processing steps are automatic. So this method is cost effective and less laborious. Accuracy of this model is good. For this research work, study area is the campus of department of civil engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee. This campus acts as a prototype for city. Aerial photography is restricted in many country

A website evaluation model by integration of previous evaluation models using a quantitative approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Moeini

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Regarding the ecommerce growth, websites play an essential role in business success. Therefore, many authors have offered website evaluation models since 1995. Although, the multiplicity and diversity of evaluation models make it difficult to integrate them into a single comprehensive model. In this paper a quantitative method has been used to integrate previous models into a comprehensive model that is compatible with them. In this approach the researcher judgment has no role in integration of models and the new model takes its validity from 93 previous models and systematic quantitative approach.

Multichannel approach to the Glauber model for heavy-ion collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lenzi, S.M.; Zardi, F.; Vitturi, A.

1990-01-01

A formalism is developed in order to describe, within the Glauber model, the scattering processes between heavy ions in situations involving several coupled channels. The approach is based on a suitable truncation of the number of nuclear states which can be excited at each microscopic nucleon-nucleon collision. The set of coupled equations for the S-matrix elements of the conventional reaction theory is replaced by simple matrix relations, only involving the nucleon-nucleon scattering amplitude and the nuclear densities and transition densities. This method avoids the difficulties arising from the combinatorial aspects of the multiple scattering theories, the slow convergence of the series, and the problems of center-of-mass correlations. We discuss some specific examples of multichannel collisions where the multiple-scattering series can be summed to give analytic expressions for the scattering amplitude. We finally explicate the formalism for the perturbative treatment of mutual excitation and charge-exchange processes

Symmetry-projected variational approach to the one-dimensional Hubbard model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, K.W.; Dahm, T.; Margueron, J.; Muether, H.

2005-01-01

We apply a variational method devised for the nuclear many-body problem to the one-dimensional Hubbard model with nearest neighbor hopping and periodic boundary conditions. The test wave function consist for each state out of a single Hartree-Fock determinant mixing all the sites (or momenta) as well as the spin projections of the electrons. Total spin and linear momentum are restored by projection methods before the variation. It is demonstrated that this approach reproduces the results of exact diagonalizations for half-filled N=12 and N=14 lattices not only for the energies and occupation numbers of the ground but also of the lowest excited states rather well. Furthermore, a system of ten electrons in an N=12 lattice is investigated and, finally, an N=30 lattice is studied. In addition to energies and occupation numbers we present the spectral functions computed with the help of the symmetry-projected wave functions as well

An algebraic approach to modeling in software engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loegel, C.J.; Ravishankar, C.V.

1993-09-01

Our work couples the formalism of universal algebras with the engineering techniques of mathematical modeling to develop a new approach to the software engineering process. Our purpose in using this combination is twofold. First, abstract data types and their specification using universal algebras can be considered a common point between the practical requirements of software engineering and the formal specification of software systems. Second, mathematical modeling principles provide us with a means for effectively analyzing real-world systems. We first use modeling techniques to analyze a system and then represent the analysis using universal algebras. The rest of the software engineering process exploits properties of universal algebras that preserve the structure of our original model. This paper describes our software engineering process and our experience using it on both research and commercial systems. We need a new approach because current software engineering practices often deliver software that is difficult to develop and maintain. Formal software engineering approaches use universal algebras to describe ''computer science'' objects like abstract data types, but in practice software errors are often caused because ''real-world'' objects are improperly modeled. There is a large semantic gap between the customer's objects and abstract data types. In contrast, mathematical modeling uses engineering techniques to construct valid models for real-world systems, but these models are often implemented in an ad hoc manner. A combination of the best features of both approaches would enable software engineering to formally specify and develop software systems that better model real systems. Software engineering, like mathematical modeling, should concern itself first and foremost with understanding a real system and its behavior under given circumstances, and then with expressing this knowledge in an executable form

Windfield and trajectory models for tornado-propelled objects. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redmann, G.H.; Radbill, J.R.; Marte, J.E.; Dergarabedian, P.; Fendell, F.E.

1983-03-01

This is the final report of a three-phased research project to develop a six-degree-of-freedom mathematical model to predict the trajectories of tornado-propelled objects. The model is based on the meteorological, aerodynamic, and dynamic processes that govern the trajectories of missiles in a tornadic windfield. The aerodynamic coefficients for the postulated missiles were obtained from full-scale wind tunnel tests on a 12-inch pipe and car and from drop tests. Rocket sled tests were run whereby the 12-inch pipe and car were injected into a worst-case tornado windfield in order to verify the trajectory model. To simplify and facilitate the use of the trajectory model for design applications without having to run the computer program, this report gives the trajectory data for NRC-postulated missiles in tables based on given variables of initial conditions of injection and tornado windfield. Complete descriptions of the tornado windfield and trajectory models are presented. The trajectory model computer program is also included for those desiring to perform trajectory or sensitivity analyses beyond those included in the report or for those wishing to examine other missiles and use other variables

FINAL REPORT:Observation and Simulations of Transport of Molecules and Ions Across Model Membranes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MURAD, SOHAIL [University of Illinois at Chicago; JAMESON, CYNTHIA J [University of Illinois at Chicago

2013-10-22

During the this new grant we developed a robust methodology for investigating a wide range of properties of phospho-lipid bilayers. The approach developed is unique because despite using periodic boundary conditions, we can simulate an entire experiment or process in detail. For example, we can follow the entire permeation process in a lipid-membrane. This includes transport from the bulk aqueous phase to the lipid surface; permeation into the lipid; transport inside the lipid; and transport out of the lipid to the bulk aqueous phase again. We studied the transport of small gases in both the lipid itself and in model protein channels. In addition, we have examined the transport of nanocrystals through the lipid membrane, with the main goal of understanding the mechanical behavior of lipids under stress including water and ion leakage and lipid flip flop. Finally we have also examined in detail the deformation of lipids when under the influence of external fields, both mechanical and electrostatic (currently in progress). The important observations and conclusions from our studies are described in the main text of the report

Atomistic approach for modeling metal-semiconductor interfaces

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stradi, Daniele; Martinez, Umberto; Blom, Anders

2016-01-01

realistic metal-semiconductor interfaces and allows for a direct comparison between theory and experiments via the I–V curve. In particular, it will be demonstrated how doping — and bias — modifies the Schottky barrier, and how finite size models (the slab approach) are unable to describe these interfaces......We present a general framework for simulating interfaces using an atomistic approach based on density functional theory and non-equilibrium Green's functions. The method includes all the relevant ingredients, such as doping and an accurate value of the semiconductor band gap, required to model...

Multi-model approach to characterize human handwriting motion.

Science.gov (United States)

Chihi, I; Abdelkrim, A; Benrejeb, M

2016-02-01

This paper deals with characterization and modelling of human handwriting motion from two forearm muscle activity signals, called electromyography signals (EMG). In this work, an experimental approach was used to record the coordinates of a pen tip moving on the (x, y) plane and EMG signals during the handwriting act. The main purpose is to design a new mathematical model which characterizes this biological process. Based on a multi-model approach, this system was originally developed to generate letters and geometric forms written by different writers. A Recursive Least Squares algorithm is used to estimate the parameters of each sub-model of the multi-model basis. Simulations show good agreement between predicted results and the recorded data.

Nonlinear Modeling of the PEMFC Based On NNARX Approach

OpenAIRE

Shan-Jen Cheng; Te-Jen Chang; Kuang-Hsiung Tan; Shou-Ling Kuo

2015-01-01

Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is such a time-vary nonlinear dynamic system. The traditional linear modeling approach is hard to estimate structure correctly of PEMFC system. From this reason, this paper presents a nonlinear modeling of the PEMFC using Neural Network Auto-regressive model with eXogenous inputs (NNARX) approach. The multilayer perception (MLP) network is applied to evaluate the structure of the NNARX model of PEMFC. The validity and accurac...

RFMix: A Discriminative Modeling Approach for Rapid and Robust Local-Ancestry Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Maples, Brian K.; Gravel, Simon; Kenny, Eimear E.; Bustamante, Carlos D.

2013-01-01

Local-ancestry inference is an important step in the genetic analysis of fully sequenced human genomes. Current methods can only detect continental-level ancestry (i.e., European versus African versus Asian) accurately even when using millions of markers. Here, we present RFMix, a powerful discriminative modeling approach that is faster (∼30×) and more accurate than existing methods. We accomplish this by using a conditional random field parameterized by random forests trained on reference panels. RFMix is capable of learning from the admixed samples themselves to boost performance and autocorrect phasing errors. RFMix shows high sensitivity and specificity in simulated Hispanics/Latinos and African Americans and admixed Europeans, Africans, and Asians. Finally, we demonstrate that African Americans in HapMap contain modest (but nonzero) levels of Native American ancestry (∼0.4%). PMID:23910464

Final report of the TRUE Block Scale project. 3. Modelling of flow and transport

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poteri, Antti [VTT Processes, Helsinki (Finland); Billaux, Daniel [Itasca Consultants SA, Ecully (France); Dershowitz, William [Golder Associates Inc., Redmond, WA (United States); Gomez-Hernandez, J. Jaime [Univ. Politecnica de Valencia (Spain). Dept. of Hydrahulic and Environmental Engineering; Cvetkovic, Vladimir [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Water Resources Engineering; Hautojaervi, Aimo [Posiva Oy, Olkiluoto (Finland); Holton, David [Serco Assurance, Harwell (United Kingdom); Medina, Agustin [UPC, Barcelona (Spain); Winberg, Anders (ed.) [Conterra AB, Uppsala (Sweden)

2002-12-01

A series of tracer experiments were performed as part of the TRUE Block Scale experiment over length scales ranging from 10 to 100 m. The in situ experimentation was preceded by a comprehensive iterative characterisation campaign - the results from one borehole was used to update descriptive models and provide the basis for continued characterisation. Apart from core drilling, various types of laboratory investigations, core logging, borehole TV imaging and various types of hydraulic tests (single hole and cross-hole) were performed. Based on the characterisation data a hydro structural model of the investigated rock volume was constructed including deterministic structures and a stochastic background fracture population, and their material properties. In addition, a generic microstructure conceptual model of the investigated structures was developed. Tracer tests with radioactive sorbing tracers performed in three flow paths were preceded by various pre-tests including tracer dilution tests, which were used to select suitable configurations of tracer injection and pumping in the established borehole array. The in situ experimentation was preceded by formulation of basic questions and associated hypotheses to be addressed by the tracer tests and the subsequent evaluation. The hypotheses included address of the validity of the hydro structural model, the effects of heterogeneity and block scale retention. Model predictions and subsequent evaluation modelling was performed using a wide variety of model concepts. These included stochastic continuum, discrete feature network and channel network models formulated in 3D, which also solved the flow problem. In addition, two 'single channel' approaches (Posiva Streamtube and LaSAR extended to the block scale) were employed. A common basis for transport was formulated. The difference between the approaches was found in how heterogeneity is accounted for, both in terms of number of different types of immobile zones

Final report of the TRUE Block Scale project. 3. Modelling of flow and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poteri, Antti; Billaux, Daniel; Dershowitz, William; Gomez-Hernandez, J. Jaime; Holton, David; Medina, Agustin; Winberg, Anders

2002-12-01

A series of tracer experiments were performed as part of the TRUE Block Scale experiment over length scales ranging from 10 to 100 m. The in situ experimentation was preceded by a comprehensive iterative characterisation campaign - the results from one borehole was used to update descriptive models and provide the basis for continued characterisation. Apart from core drilling, various types of laboratory investigations, core logging, borehole TV imaging and various types of hydraulic tests (single hole and cross-hole) were performed. Based on the characterisation data a hydro structural model of the investigated rock volume was constructed including deterministic structures and a stochastic background fracture population, and their material properties. In addition, a generic microstructure conceptual model of the investigated structures was developed. Tracer tests with radioactive sorbing tracers performed in three flow paths were preceded by various pre-tests including tracer dilution tests, which were used to select suitable configurations of tracer injection and pumping in the established borehole array. The in situ experimentation was preceded by formulation of basic questions and associated hypotheses to be addressed by the tracer tests and the subsequent evaluation. The hypotheses included address of the validity of the hydro structural model, the effects of heterogeneity and block scale retention. Model predictions and subsequent evaluation modelling was performed using a wide variety of model concepts. These included stochastic continuum, discrete feature network and channel network models formulated in 3D, which also solved the flow problem. In addition, two 'single channel' approaches (Posiva Streamtube and LaSAR extended to the block scale) were employed. A common basis for transport was formulated. The difference between the approaches was found in how heterogeneity is accounted for, both in terms of number of different types of immobile zones included

A realistic approach to modeling an in-duct desulfurization process based on an experimental pilot plant study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ortiz, F.J.G.; Ollero, P. [University of Seville, Seville (Spain)

2008-07-15

This paper has been written to provide a realistic approach to modeling an in-duct desulfurization process and because of the disagreement between the results predicted by published kinetic models of the reaction between hydrated lime and SO{sub 2} at low temperature and the experimental results obtained in pilot plants where this process takes place. Results were obtained from an experimental program carried out in a 3-MWe pilot plant. Additionally, five kinetic models, from the literature, of the reaction of sulfation of Ca(OH){sub 2} at low temperatures were assessed by simulation and indicate that the desulfurization efficiencies predicted by them are clearly lower than those experimentally obtained in our own pilot plant as well as others. Next, a general model was fitted by minimizing the difference between the calculated and the experimental results from the pilot plant, using Matlab{sup TM}. The parameters were reduced as much as possible, to only two. Finally, after implementing this model in a simulation tool of the in-duct sorbent injection process, it was validated and it was shown to yield a realistic approach useful for both analyzing results and aiding in the design of an in-duct desulfurization process.

Understanding Gulf War Illness: An Integrative Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

2017-10-01

using a novel mathematical model. The computational biology approach will enable the consortium to quickly identify targets of dysfunction and find... computer / mathematical paradigms for evaluation of treatment strategies 12-30 50% Develop pilot clinical trials on basis of animal studies 24-36 60...the goal of testing chemical treatments. The immune and autonomic biomarkers will be tested using a computational modeling approach allowing for a

Heat transfer modeling an inductive approach

CERN Document Server

Sidebotham, George

2015-01-01

This innovative text emphasizes a "less-is-more" approach to modeling complicated systems such as heat transfer by treating them first as "1-node lumped models" that yield simple closed-form solutions. The author develops numerical techniques for students to obtain more detail, but also trains them to use the techniques only when simpler approaches fail. Covering all essential methods offered in traditional texts, but with a different order, Professor Sidebotham stresses inductive thinking and problem solving as well as a constructive understanding of modern, computer-based practice. Readers learn to develop their own code in the context of the material, rather than just how to use packaged software, offering a deeper, intrinsic grasp behind models of heat transfer. Developed from over twenty-five years of lecture notes to teach students of mechanical and chemical engineering at The Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, the book is ideal for students and practitioners across engineering discipl...

Polynomial Chaos Expansion Approach to Interest Rate Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Di Persio

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE technique allows us to recover a finite second-order random variable exploiting suitable linear combinations of orthogonal polynomials which are functions of a given stochastic quantity ξ, hence acting as a kind of random basis. The PCE methodology has been developed as a mathematically rigorous Uncertainty Quantification (UQ method which aims at providing reliable numerical estimates for some uncertain physical quantities defining the dynamic of certain engineering models and their related simulations. In the present paper, we use the PCE approach in order to analyze some equity and interest rate models. In particular, we take into consideration those models which are based on, for example, the Geometric Brownian Motion, the Vasicek model, and the CIR model. We present theoretical as well as related concrete numerical approximation results considering, without loss of generality, the one-dimensional case. We also provide both an efficiency study and an accuracy study of our approach by comparing its outputs with the ones obtained adopting the Monte Carlo approach, both in its standard and its enhanced version.

Simulation of emotional contagion using modified SIR model: A cellular automaton approach

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Libi; Song, Weiguo; Lv, Wei; Lo, Siuming

2014-07-01

Emotion plays an important role in the decision-making of individuals in some emergency situations. The contagion of emotion may induce either normal or abnormal consolidated crowd behavior. This paper aims to simulate the dynamics of emotional contagion among crowds by modifying the epidemiological SIR model to a cellular automaton approach. This new cellular automaton model, entitled the “CA-SIRS model”, captures the dynamic process ‘susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible', which is based on SIRS contagion in epidemiological theory. Moreover, in this new model, the process is integrated with individual movement. The simulation results of this model show that multiple waves and dynamical stability around a mean value will appear during emotion spreading. It was found that the proportion of initial infected individuals had little influence on the final stable proportion of infected population in a given system, and that infection frequency increased with an increase in the average crowd density. Our results further suggest that individual movement accelerates the spread speed of emotion and increases the stable proportion of infected population. Furthermore, decreasing the duration of an infection and the probability of reinfection can markedly reduce the number of infected individuals. It is hoped that this study will be helpful in crowd management and evacuation organization.

A dynamic texture-based approach to recognition of facial actions and their temporal models.

Science.gov (United States)

Koelstra, Sander; Pantic, Maja; Patras, Ioannis

2010-11-01

In this work, we propose a dynamic texture-based approach to the recognition of facial Action Units (AUs, atomic facial gestures) and their temporal models (i.e., sequences of temporal segments: neutral, onset, apex, and offset) in near-frontal-view face videos. Two approaches to modeling the dynamics and the appearance in the face region of an input video are compared: an extended version of Motion History Images and a novel method based on Nonrigid Registration using Free-Form Deformations (FFDs). The extracted motion representation is used to derive motion orientation histogram descriptors in both the spatial and temporal domain. Per AU, a combination of discriminative, frame-based GentleBoost ensemble learners and dynamic, generative Hidden Markov Models detects the presence of the AU in question and its temporal segments in an input image sequence. When tested for recognition of all 27 lower and upper face AUs, occurring alone or in combination in 264 sequences from the MMI facial expression database, the proposed method achieved an average event recognition accuracy of 89.2 percent for the MHI method and 94.3 percent for the FFD method. The generalization performance of the FFD method has been tested using the Cohn-Kanade database. Finally, we also explored the performance on spontaneous expressions in the Sensitive Artificial Listener data set.

DECOVALEX III PROJECT. Modelling of FEBEX In-Situ Test. Task1 Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alonso, E.E.; Alcoverro, J. [Univ. Politecnica de Catalunya, Barcelona (Spain)] (comps.)

2005-02-15

Task 1 of DECOVALEX III was conceived as a benchmark exercise supported by all field and laboratory data generated during the performance of the FEBEX experiment designed to study thermo-hydro-mechanical and thermo-hydro-geochemical processes of the buffer and rock in the near field. The task was defined as a series of three successive blind prediction exercises (Parts A, B and C), which cover the behaviour of both the rock and bentonite barrier. Research teams participating in the FEBEX task were given, for each of the three parts, a set of field and laboratory data theoretically sufficient to generate a proper model and were asked to submit predictions, at given locations and time, for some of the measured variables. The merits and limitations of different modeling approaches were therefore established. The teams could perform additional calculations, once the actual 'solution' was disclosed. Final calculations represented the best approximation that a given team could provide, always within the general time constraints imposed by the General DECOVALEX III Organization. This report presents the works performed for Task 1. It contains the case definitions and evaluations of modelling results for Part A, B and C, and the overall evaluation of the works performed. The report is completed by a CD-ROM containing a set of final reports provided by the modeling teams participating in each of the three parts defined. These reports provide the necessary details to better understand the nature of the blind or final predictions included in this report. The report closes with a set of conclusions, which provides a summary of the main findings and highlights the lessons learned, some of which were summarized below. The best predictions of the water inflow into the excavated tunnel are found when the hydro geological model is properly calibrated on the basis of other known flow measurements in the same area. The particular idealization of the rock mass (equivalent

DECOVALEX III PROJECT. Modelling of FEBEX In-Situ Test. Task1 Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonso, E.E.; Alcoverro, J.

2005-02-01

Task 1 of DECOVALEX III was conceived as a benchmark exercise supported by all field and laboratory data generated during the performance of the FEBEX experiment designed to study thermo-hydro-mechanical and thermo-hydro-geochemical processes of the buffer and rock in the near field. The task was defined as a series of three successive blind prediction exercises (Parts A, B and C), which cover the behaviour of both the rock and bentonite barrier. Research teams participating in the FEBEX task were given, for each of the three parts, a set of field and laboratory data theoretically sufficient to generate a proper model and were asked to submit predictions, at given locations and time, for some of the measured variables. The merits and limitations of different modeling approaches were therefore established. The teams could perform additional calculations, once the actual 'solution' was disclosed. Final calculations represented the best approximation that a given team could provide, always within the general time constraints imposed by the General DECOVALEX III Organization. This report presents the works performed for Task 1. It contains the case definitions and evaluations of modelling results for Part A, B and C, and the overall evaluation of the works performed. The report is completed by a CD-ROM containing a set of final reports provided by the modeling teams participating in each of the three parts defined. These reports provide the necessary details to better understand the nature of the blind or final predictions included in this report. The report closes with a set of conclusions, which provides a summary of the main findings and highlights the lessons learned, some of which were summarized below. The best predictions of the water inflow into the excavated tunnel are found when the hydro geological model is properly calibrated on the basis of other known flow measurements in the same area. The particular idealization of the rock mass (equivalent porous media

Total System Performance Assessment - License Application Methods and Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

J. McNeish

2003-12-08

''Total System Performance Assessment-License Application (TSPA-LA) Methods and Approach'' provides the top-level method and approach for conducting the TSPA-LA model development and analyses. The method and approach is responsive to the criteria set forth in Total System Performance Assessment Integration (TSPAI) Key Technical Issues (KTIs) identified in agreements with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the ''Yucca Mountain Review Plan'' (YMRP), ''Final Report'' (NRC 2003 [163274]), and the NRC final rule 10 CFR Part 63 (NRC 2002 [156605]). This introductory section provides an overview of the TSPA-LA, the projected TSPA-LA documentation structure, and the goals of the document. It also provides a brief discussion of the regulatory framework, the approach to risk management of the development and analysis of the model, and the overall organization of the document. The section closes with some important conventions that are used in this document.

An Intelligent Systems Approach to Reservoir Characterization. Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shahab D. Mohaghegh; Jaime Toro; Thomas H. Wilson; Emre Artun; Alejandro Sanchez; Sandeep Pyakurel

2005-01-01

Today, the major challenge in reservoir characterization is integrating data coming from different sources in varying scales, in order to obtain an accurate and high-resolution reservoir model. The role of seismic data in this integration is often limited to providing a structural model for the reservoir. Its relatively low resolution usually limits its further use. However, its areal coverage and availability suggest that it has the potential of providing valuable data for more detailed reservoir characterization studies through the process of seismic inversion. In this paper, a novel intelligent seismic inversion methodology is presented to achieve a desirable correlation between relatively low-frequency seismic signals, and the much higher frequency wireline-log data. Vertical seismic profile (VSP) is used as an intermediate step between the well logs and the surface seismic. A synthetic seismic model is developed by using real data and seismic interpretation. In the example presented here, the model represents the Atoka and Morrow formations, and the overlying Pennsylvanian sequence of the Buffalo Valley Field in New Mexico. Generalized regression neural network (GRNN) is used to build two independent correlation models between; (1) Surface seismic and VSP, (2) VSP and well logs. After generating virtual VSP's from the surface seismic, well logs are predicted by using the correlation between VSP and well logs. The values of the density log, which is a surrogate for reservoir porosity, are predicted for each seismic trace through the seismic line with a classification approach having a correlation coefficient of 0.81. The same methodology is then applied to real data taken from the Buffalo Valley Field, to predict inter-well gamma ray and neutron porosity logs through the seismic line of interest. The same procedure can be applied to a complete 3D seismic block to obtain 3D distributions of reservoir properties with less uncertainty than the geostatistical

A DG approach to the numerical solution of the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility option pricing model

Science.gov (United States)

Hozman, J.; Tichý, T.

2017-12-01

Stochastic volatility models enable to capture the real world features of the options better than the classical Black-Scholes treatment. Here we focus on pricing of European-style options under the Stein-Stein stochastic volatility model when the option value depends on the time, on the price of the underlying asset and on the volatility as a function of a mean reverting Orstein-Uhlenbeck process. A standard mathematical approach to this model leads to the non-stationary second-order degenerate partial differential equation of two spatial variables completed by the system of boundary and terminal conditions. In order to improve the numerical valuation process for a such pricing equation, we propose a numerical technique based on the discontinuous Galerkin method and the Crank-Nicolson scheme. Finally, reference numerical experiments on real market data illustrate comprehensive empirical findings on options with stochastic volatility.

Nonlinear mixed effects modelling approach in investigating phenobarbital pharmacokinetic interactions in epileptic patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Vučićević, Katarina; Jovanović, Marija; Golubović, Bojana; Kovačević, Sandra Vezmar; Miljković, Branislava; Martinović, Žarko; Prostran, Milica

2015-02-01

The present study aimed to establish population pharmacokinetic model for phenobarbital (PB), examining and quantifying the magnitude of PB interactions with other antiepileptic drugs concomitantly used and to demonstrate its use for individualization of PB dosing regimen in adult epileptic patients. In total 205 PB concentrations were obtained during routine clinical monitoring of 136 adult epilepsy patients. PB steady state concentrations were measured by homogeneous enzyme immunoassay. Nonlinear mixed effects modelling (NONMEM) was applied for data analyses and evaluation of the final model. According to the final population model, significant determinant of apparent PB clearance (CL/F) was daily dose of concomitantly given valproic acid (VPA). Typical value of PB CL/F for final model was estimated at 0.314 l/h. Based on the final model, co-therapy with usual VPA dose of 1000 mg/day, resulted in PB CL/F average decrease of about 25 %, while 2000 mg/day leads to an average 50 % decrease in PB CL/F. Developed population PB model may be used in estimating individual CL/F for adult epileptic patients and could be applied for individualizing dosing regimen taking into account dose-dependent effect of concomitantly given VPA.

Eutrophication Modeling Using Variable Chlorophyll Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdolabadi, H.; Sarang, A.; Ardestani, M.; Mahjoobi, E.

2016-01-01

In this study, eutrophication was investigated in Lake Ontario to identify the interactions among effective drivers. The complexity of such phenomenon was modeled using a system dynamics approach based on a consideration of constant and variable stoichiometric ratios. The system dynamics approach is a powerful tool for developing object-oriented models to simulate complex phenomena that involve feedback effects. Utilizing stoichiometric ratios is a method for converting the concentrations of state variables. During the physical segmentation of the model, Lake Ontario was divided into two layers, i.e., the epilimnion and hypolimnion, and differential equations were developed for each layer. The model structure included 16 state variables related to phytoplankton, herbivorous zooplankton, carnivorous zooplankton, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved phosphorus, and particulate and dissolved carbon in the epilimnion and hypolimnion during a time horizon of one year. The results of several tests to verify the model, close to 1 Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (0.98), the data correlation coefficient (0.98), and lower standard errors (0.96), have indicated well-suited model’s efficiency. The results revealed that there were significant differences in the concentrations of the state variables in constant and variable stoichiometry simulations. Consequently, the consideration of variable stoichiometric ratios in algae and nutrient concentration simulations may be applied in future modeling studies to enhance the accuracy of the results and reduce the likelihood of inefficient control policies.

Advanced language modeling approaches, case study: Expert search

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hiemstra, Djoerd

2008-01-01

This tutorial gives a clear and detailed overview of advanced language modeling approaches and tools, including the use of document priors, translation models, relevance models, parsimonious models and expectation maximization training. Expert search will be used as a case study to explain the

Lightweight approach to model traceability in a CASE tool

Science.gov (United States)

Vileiniskis, Tomas; Skersys, Tomas; Pavalkis, Saulius; Butleris, Rimantas; Butkiene, Rita

2017-07-01

A term "model-driven" is not at all a new buzzword within the ranks of system development community. Nevertheless, the ever increasing complexity of model-driven approaches keeps fueling all kinds of discussions around this paradigm and pushes researchers forward to research and develop new and more effective ways to system development. With the increasing complexity, model traceability, and model management as a whole, becomes indispensable activities of model-driven system development process. The main goal of this paper is to present a conceptual design and implementation of a practical lightweight approach to model traceability in a CASE tool.

A self-consistent first-principle based approach to model carrier mobility in organic materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meded, Velimir; Friederich, Pascal; Symalla, Franz; Neumann, Tobias; Danilov, Denis; Wenzel, Wolfgang

2015-01-01

Transport through thin organic amorphous films, utilized in OLEDs and OPVs, has been a challenge to model by using ab-initio methods. Charge carrier mobility depends strongly on the disorder strength and reorganization energy, both of which are significantly affected by the details in environment of each molecule. Here we present a multi-scale approach to describe carrier mobility in which the materials morphology is generated using DEPOSIT, a Monte Carlo based atomistic simulation approach, or, alternatively by molecular dynamics calculations performed with GROMACS. From this morphology we extract the material specific hopping rates, as well as the on-site energies using a fully self-consistent embedding approach to compute the electronic structure parameters, which are then used in an analytic expression for the carrier mobility. We apply this strategy to compute the carrier mobility for a set of widely studied molecules and obtain good agreement between experiment and theory varying over several orders of magnitude in the mobility without any freely adjustable parameters. The work focuses on the quantum mechanical step of the multi-scale workflow, explains the concept along with the recently published workflow optimization, which combines density functional with semi-empirical tight binding approaches. This is followed by discussion on the analytic formula and its agreement with established percolation fits as well as kinetic Monte Carlo numerical approaches. Finally, we skatch an unified multi-disciplinary approach that integrates materials science simulation and high performance computing, developed within EU project MMM@HPC

Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2. Final technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

1983-01-01

A modeling effort has been initiated to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO 2 variations. The approach uses a three-dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO 2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO 2 at the surface. This report identifies the 3-D model employed in this study and discusses biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks. Some preliminary model results are presented. 14 figures

Development of the “Approach to Critical” Experiment Simulation Model for the Consort Reactor Using LABVIEW

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbo, D. N. O.

2015-01-01

Following the shutdown of the CONSORT reactor, the “Approach to Critical” experiment which allowed students to observe and understand the procedure for taking the reactor to critical, balancing the system at low power and increasing the power over a range of powers levels and eventual reactor shutdown, would no longer be possible. It was therefore important to develop a simulation model of the experiment that would enable future students to have comparable training. An “Approach to Critical” Experiment Simulation model for the CONSORT Reactor was developed using Lab-VIEW software to simulate the “Students” experiment version. Lab– VIEW software was chosen due to its good user graphical user interface, offers ready to start functions and also the possibility of improving on the system with new algorithms. The modulation process was used to develop mathematical codes from equations using Lab–VIEW 2012 based on the CONSORT historical experimental data and known literature. The Simulation models the kinetics of a sub-critical reactor with a start-up neutron source, such that control rods are used to increase the power, then achieve power balance and finally shutting down the reactor. Reactivity changes due to temperature effects were neglected. The model was validated by testing the code through performing the three parts of the experiment; Approach to Critical, Doubling time method and Rod drop method, and results compared to the historical experimental data. The results were in agreement with historical data. However the negligible variations were obtained in the Rod drop method due to the reactivity values used to generate the code. (author)

SEMI-EMPIRICAL WHITE DWARF INITIAL-FINAL MASS RELATIONSHIPS: A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salaris, Maurizio; Serenelli, Aldo; Weiss, Achim; Miller Bertolami, Marcelo

2009-01-01

Using the most recent results about white dwarfs (WDs) in ten open clusters, we revisit semiempirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the WD cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

Smeared crack modelling approach for corrosion-induced concrete damage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thybo, Anna Emilie Anusha; Michel, Alexander; Stang, Henrik

2017-01-01

In this paper a smeared crack modelling approach is used to simulate corrosion-induced damage in reinforced concrete. The presented modelling approach utilizes a thermal analogy to mimic the expansive nature of solid corrosion products, while taking into account the penetration of corrosion...... products into the surrounding concrete, non-uniform precipitation of corrosion products, and creep. To demonstrate the applicability of the presented modelling approach, numerical predictions in terms of corrosion-induced deformations as well as formation and propagation of micro- and macrocracks were......-induced damage phenomena in reinforced concrete. Moreover, good agreements were also found between experimental and numerical data for corrosion-induced deformations along the circumference of the reinforcement....

An Alternative Approach to the Extended Drude Model

Science.gov (United States)

Gantzler, N. J.; Dordevic, S. V.

2018-05-01

The original Drude model, proposed over a hundred years ago, is still used today for the analysis of optical properties of solids. Within this model, both the plasma frequency and quasiparticle scattering rate are constant, which makes the model rather inflexible. In order to circumvent this problem, the so-called extended Drude model was proposed, which allowed for the frequency dependence of both the quasiparticle scattering rate and the effective mass. In this work we will explore an alternative approach to the extended Drude model. Here, one also assumes that the quasiparticle scattering rate is frequency dependent; however, instead of the effective mass, the plasma frequency becomes frequency-dependent. This alternative model is applied to the high Tc superconductor Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ (Bi2212) with Tc = 92 K, and the results are compared and contrasted with the ones obtained from the conventional extended Drude model. The results point to several advantages of this alternative approach to the extended Drude model.

Final Report Coupling in silico microbial models with reactive transport models to predict the fate of contaminants in the subsurface.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lovley, Derek R.

2012-10-31

This project successfully accomplished its goal of coupling genome-scale metabolic models with hydrological and geochemical models to predict the activity of subsurface microorganisms during uranium bioremediation. Furthermore, it was demonstrated how this modeling approach can be used to develop new strategies to optimize bioremediation. The approach of coupling genome-scale metabolic models with reactive transport modeling is now well enough established that it has been adopted by other DOE investigators studying uranium bioremediation. Furthermore, the basic principles developed during our studies will be applicable to much broader investigations of microbial activities, not only for other types of bioremediation, but microbial metabolism in diversity of environments. This approach has the potential to make an important contribution to predicting the impact of environmental perturbations on the cycling of carbon and other biogeochemical cycles.

Modeling of microstructure evolution in direct metal laser sintering: A phase field approach

Science.gov (United States)

Nandy, Jyotirmoy; Sarangi, Hrushikesh; Sahoo, Seshadev

2017-02-01

Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS) is a new technology in the field of additive manufacturing, which builds metal parts in a layer by layer fashion directly from the powder bed. The process occurs within a very short time period with rapid solidification rate. Slight variations in the process parameters may cause enormous change in the final build parts. The physical and mechanical properties of the final build parts are dependent on the solidification rate which directly affects the microstructure of the material. Thus, the evolving of microstructure plays a vital role in the process parameters optimization. Nowadays, the increase in computational power allows for direct simulations of microstructures during materials processing for specific manufacturing conditions. In this study, modeling of microstructure evolution of Al-Si-10Mg powder in DMLS process was carried out by using a phase field approach. A MATLAB code was developed to solve the set of phase field equations, where simulation parameters include temperature gradient, laser scan speed and laser power. The effects of temperature gradient on microstructure evolution were studied and found that with increase in temperature gradient, the dendritic tip grows at a faster rate.

Model-independent and quasi-model-independent search for new physics at CDF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aaltonen, T.; Maki, T.; Mehtala, P.; Orava, R.; Osterberg, K.; Saarikko, H.; van Remortel, N.; Abulencia, A.; Budd, S.; Ciobanu, C. I.; Errede, D.; Errede, S.; Gerberich, H.; Grundler, U.; Junk, T. R.; Kraus, J.; Marino, C. P.; Neubauer, M. S.; Norniella, O.; Pitts, K.

2008-01-01

Data collected in run II of the Fermilab Tevatron are searched for indications of new electroweak scale physics. Rather than focusing on particular new physics scenarios, CDF data are analyzed for discrepancies with respect to the standard model prediction. A model-independent approach (Vista) considers the gross features of the data and is sensitive to new large cross section physics. A quasi-model-independent approach (Sleuth) searches for a significant excess of events with large summed transverse momentum and is particularly sensitive to new electroweak scale physics that appears predominantly in one final state. This global search for new physics in over 300 exclusive final states in 927 pb -1 of pp collisions at √(s)=1.96 TeV reveals no such significant indication of physics beyond the standard model.

Evaluation of Lithium-Ion Battery Equivalent Circuit Models for State of Charge Estimation by an Experimental Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinxin Fan

2011-03-01

Full Text Available To improve the use of lithium-ion batteries in electric vehicle (EV applications, evaluations and comparisons of different equivalent circuit models are presented in this paper. Based on an analysis of the traditional lithium-ion battery equivalent circuit models such as the Rint, RC, Thevenin and PNGV models, an improved Thevenin model, named dual polarization (DP model, is put forward by adding an extra RC to simulate the electrochemical polarization and concentration polarization separately. The model parameters are identified with a genetic algorithm, which is used to find the optimal time constant of the model, and the experimental data from a Hybrid Pulse Power Characterization (HPPC test on a LiMn2O4 battery module. Evaluations on the five models are carried out from the point of view of the dynamic performance and the state of charge (SoC estimation. The dynamic performances of the five models are obtained by conducting the Dynamic Stress Test (DST and the accuracy of SoC estimation with the Robust Extended Kalman Filter (REKF approach is determined by performing a Federal Urban Driving Schedules (FUDS experiment. By comparison, the DP model has the best dynamic performance and provides the most accurate SoC estimation. Finally, sensitivity of the different SoC initial values is investigated based on the accuracy of SoC estimation with the REKF approach based on the DP model. It is clear that the errors resulting from the SoC initial value are significantly reduced and the true SoC is convergent within an acceptable error.

A novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, P.E.; Kangas, L.J.; Hashem, S.; Kouzes, R.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Allen, P.A. [Life Link, Richland, WA (United States)

1995-07-01

A novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system is introduced. A model exhibits a subset of the dynamics of the cardiovascular behavior of an individual by using a recurrent artificial neural network. Potentially, a model will be incorporated into a cardiovascular diagnostic system. This approach is unique in that each cardiovascular model is developed from physiological measurements of an individual. Any differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual at a given time are used for diagnosis. This approach also exploits sensor fusion to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors. The advantage of sensor fusion has been demonstrated in applications including control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

A Proposed Approach for Joint Modeling of the Longitudinal and Time-To-Event Data in Heterogeneous Populations: An Application to HIV/AIDS's Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Roustaei, Narges; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Zare, Najaf

2018-01-01

In recent years, the joint models have been widely used for modeling the longitudinal and time-to-event data simultaneously. In this study, we proposed an approach (PA) to study the longitudinal and survival outcomes simultaneously in heterogeneous populations. PA relaxes the assumption of conditional independence (CI). We also compared PA with joint latent class model (JLCM) and separate approach (SA) for various sample sizes (150, 300, and 600) and different association parameters (0, 0.2, and 0.5). The average bias of parameters estimation (AB-PE), average SE of parameters estimation (ASE-PE), and coverage probability of the 95% confidence interval (CP) among the three approaches were compared. In most cases, when the sample sizes increased, AB-PE and ASE-PE decreased for the three approaches, and CP got closer to the nominal level of 0.95. When there was a considerable association, PA in comparison with SA and JLCM performed better in the sense that PA had the smallest AB-PE and ASE-PE for the longitudinal submodel among the three approaches for the small and moderate sample sizes. Moreover, JLCM was desirable for the none-association and the large sample size. Finally, the evaluated approaches were applied on a real HIV/AIDS dataset for validation, and the results were compared.

Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account

A comprehensive approach to dark matter studies: exploration of simplified top-philic models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arina, Chiara; Backović, Mihailo [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3),Université catholique de Louvain, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Conte, Eric [Groupe de Recherche de Physique des Hautes Énergies (GRPHE), Université de Haute-Alsace,IUT Colmar, F-68008 Colmar Cedex (France); Fuks, Benjamin [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC University Paris 06, UMR 7589, LPTHE, F-75005, Paris (France); CNRS, UMR 7589, LPTHE, F-75005, Paris (France); Guo, Jun [State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien/Département Recherches Subatomiques,Université de Strasbourg/CNRS-IN2P3, F-67037 Strasbourg (France); Heisig, Jan [Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology, RWTH Aachen University,Sommerfeldstr. 16, D-52056 Aachen (Germany); Hespel, Benoît [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3),Université catholique de Louvain, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Krämer, Michael [Institute for Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology, RWTH Aachen University,Sommerfeldstr. 16, D-52056 Aachen (Germany); Maltoni, Fabio; Martini, Antony [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3),Université catholique de Louvain, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mawatari, Kentarou [Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie, Université Grenoble-Alpes,CNRS/IN2P3, 53 Avenue des Martyrs, F-38026 Grenoble (France); Theoretische Natuurkunde and IIHE/ELEM, Vrije Universiteit Brussel andInternational Solvay Institutes, Pleinlaan 2, B-1050 Brussels (Belgium); Pellen, Mathieu [Universität Würzburg, Institut für Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik,Emil-Hilb-Weg 22, 97074 Würzburg (Germany); Vryonidou, Eleni [Centre for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3),Université catholique de Louvain, Chemin du Cyclotron 2, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

2016-11-21

Studies of dark matter lie at the interface of collider physics, astrophysics and cosmology. Constraining models featuring dark matter candidates entails the capability to provide accurate predictions for large sets of observables and compare them to a wide spectrum of data. We present a framework which, starting from a model Lagrangian, allows one to consistently and systematically make predictions, as well as to confront those predictions with a multitude of experimental results. As an application, we consider a class of simplified dark matter models where a scalar mediator couples only to the top quark and a fermionic dark sector (i.e. the simplified top-philic dark matter model). We study in detail the complementarity of relic density, direct/indirect detection and collider searches in constraining the multi-dimensional model parameter space, and efficiently identify regions where individual approaches to dark matter detection provide the most stringent bounds. In the context of collider studies of dark matter, we point out the complementarity of LHC searches in probing different regions of the model parameter space with final states involving top quarks, photons, jets and/or missing energy. Our study of dark matter production at the LHC goes beyond the tree-level approximation and we show examples of how higher-order corrections to dark matter production processes can affect the interpretation of the experimental results.

78 FR 70598 - Submission for Review: Request for External Review (3206-NEW); Model Notice of Final Internal...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-26

... notice to enrollees about the result of any final internal adverse benefit determination, their external... OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT Submission for Review: Request for External Review (3206-NEW); Model Notice of Final Internal Adverse Benefit Determination and Case Intake Form AGENCY: U.S. Office of...

A dual model approach to ground water recovery trench design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clodfelter, C.L.; Crouch, M.S.

1992-01-01

The design of trenches for contaminated ground water recovery must consider several variables. This paper presents a dual-model approach for effectively recovering contaminated ground water migrating toward a trench by advection. The approach involves an analytical model to determine the vertical influence of the trench and a numerical flow model to determine the capture zone within the trench and the surrounding aquifer. The analytical model is utilized by varying trench dimensions and head values to design a trench which meets the remediation criteria. The numerical flow model is utilized to select the type of backfill and location of sumps within the trench. The dual-model approach can be used to design a recovery trench which effectively captures advective migration of contaminants in the vertical and horizontal planes

Mechatronic modeling of a 750kW fixed-speed wind energy conversion system using the Bond Graph Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Khaouch, Zakaria; Zekraoui, Mustapha; Bengourram, Jamaa; Kouider, Nourreeddine; Mabrouki, Mustapha

2016-11-01

In this paper, we would like to focus on modeling main parts of the wind turbines (blades, gearbox, tower, generator and pitching system) from a mechatronics viewpoint using the Bond-Graph Approach (BGA). Then, these parts are combined together in order to simulate the complete system. Moreover, the real dynamic behavior of the wind turbine is taken into account and with the new model; final load simulation is more realistic offering benefits and reliable system performance. This model can be used to develop control algorithms to reduce fatigue loads and enhance power production. Different simulations are carried-out in order to validate the proposed wind turbine model, using real data provided in the open literature (blade profile and gearbox parameters for a 750 kW wind turbine). Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A robust quantitative near infrared modeling approach for blend monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohan, Shikhar; Momose, Wataru; Katz, Jeffrey M; Hossain, Md Nayeem; Velez, Natasha; Drennen, James K; Anderson, Carl A

2018-01-30

This study demonstrates a material sparing Near-Infrared modeling approach for powder blend monitoring. In this new approach, gram scale powder mixtures are subjected to compression loads to simulate the effect of scale using an Instron universal testing system. Models prepared by the new method development approach (small-scale method) and by a traditional method development (blender-scale method) were compared by simultaneously monitoring a 1kg batch size blend run. Both models demonstrated similar model performance. The small-scale method strategy significantly reduces the total resources expended to develop Near-Infrared calibration models for on-line blend monitoring. Further, this development approach does not require the actual equipment (i.e., blender) to which the method will be applied, only a similar optical interface. Thus, a robust on-line blend monitoring method can be fully developed before any large-scale blending experiment is viable, allowing the blend method to be used during scale-up and blend development trials. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An ontology-based approach for modelling architectural styles

OpenAIRE

Pahl, Claus; Giesecke, Simon; Hasselbring, Wilhelm

2007-01-01

peer-reviewed The conceptual modelling of software architectures is of central importance for the quality of a software system. A rich modelling language is required to integrate the different aspects of architecture modelling, such as architectural styles, structural and behavioural modelling, into a coherent framework.We propose an ontological approach for architectural style modelling based on description logic as an abstract, meta-level modelling instrument. Architect...

An Approach to Enforcing Clark-Wilson Model in Role-based Access Control Model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LIANGBin; SHIWenchang; SUNYufang; SUNBo

2004-01-01

Using one security model to enforce another is a prospective solution to multi-policy support. In this paper, an approach to the enforcing Clark-Wilson data integrity model in the Role-based access control (RBAC) model is proposed. An enforcement construction with great feasibility is presented. In this construction, a direct way to enforce the Clark-Wilson model is provided, the corresponding relations among users, transformation procedures, and constrained data items are strengthened; the concepts of task and subtask are introduced to enhance the support to least-privilege. The proposed approach widens the applicability of RBAC. The theoretical foundation for adopting Clark-Wilson model in a RBAC system with small cost is offered to meet the requirements of multi-policy support and policy flexibility.

The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klos, Richard

2008-03-15

An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

The Generalised Ecosystem Modelling Approach in Radiological Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klos, Richard

2008-03-01

An independent modelling capability is required by SSI in order to evaluate dose assessments carried out in Sweden by, amongst others, SKB. The main focus is the evaluation of the long-term radiological safety of radioactive waste repositories for both spent fuel and low-level radioactive waste. To meet the requirement for an independent modelling tool for use in biosphere dose assessments, SSI through its modelling team CLIMB commissioned the development of a new model in 2004, a project to produce an integrated model of radionuclides in the landscape. The generalised ecosystem modelling approach (GEMA) is the result. GEMA is a modular system of compartments representing the surface environment. It can be configured, through water and solid material fluxes, to represent local details in the range of ecosystem types found in the past, present and future Swedish landscapes. The approach is generic but fine tuning can be carried out using local details of the surface drainage system. The modular nature of the modelling approach means that GEMA modules can be linked to represent large scale surface drainage features over an extended domain in the landscape. System change can also be managed in GEMA, allowing a flexible and comprehensive model of the evolving landscape to be constructed. Environmental concentrations of radionuclides can be calculated and the GEMA dose pathway model provides a means of evaluating the radiological impact of radionuclide release to the surface environment. This document sets out the philosophy and details of GEMA and illustrates the functioning of the model with a range of examples featuring the recent CLIMB review of SKB's SR-Can assessment

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

An integrated approach to human reliability analysis -- decision analytic dynamic reliability model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Hukki, K.; Norros, L.; Pulkkinen, U.; Pyy, P.

1999-01-01

The reliability of human operators in process control is sensitive to the context. In many contemporary human reliability analysis (HRA) methods, this is not sufficiently taken into account. The aim of this article is that integration between probabilistic and psychological approaches in human reliability should be attempted. This is achieved first, by adopting such methods that adequately reflect the essential features of the process control activity, and secondly, by carrying out an interactive HRA process. Description of the activity context, probabilistic modeling, and psychological analysis form an iterative interdisciplinary sequence of analysis in which the results of one sub-task maybe input to another. The analysis of the context is carried out first with the help of a common set of conceptual tools. The resulting descriptions of the context promote the probabilistic modeling, through which new results regarding the probabilistic dynamics can be achieved. These can be incorporated in the context descriptions used as reference in the psychological analysis of actual performance. The results also provide new knowledge of the constraints of activity, by providing information of the premises of the operator's actions. Finally, the stochastic marked point process model gives a tool, by which psychological methodology may be interpreted and utilized for reliability analysis

Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Strimmer Korbinian

2003-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale. Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood. Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also

A modular approach to numerical human body modeling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Forbes, P.A.; Griotto, G.; Rooij, L. van

2007-01-01

The choice of a human body model for a simulated automotive impact scenario must take into account both accurate model response and computational efficiency as key factors. This study presents a "modular numerical human body modeling" approach which allows the creation of a customized human body

Clock Synchronization in Wireless Sensor Networks: A New Model and Analysis Approach Based on Networked Control Perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Ting

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the importance of the clock synchronization in wireless sensor networks (WSNs, this paper proposes a new research approach and model approach, which quantitatively analyzes clock synchronization from the perspective of modern control theory. Two kinds of control strategies are used as examples to analyze the effect of the control strategy on clock synchronization from different perspectives, namely, the single-step optimal control and the LQG global optimal control. The proposed method establishes a state space model for clock relationship, thus making dimension extension and parameter identification easier, and is robust to changes under the condition of node failures and new nodes. And through the design of different control strategies and performance index functions, the method can satisfy various requirements of the synchronization precision, convergence speed, energy consumption and the computational complexity, and so on. Finally, the simulations show that the synchronization accuracy of the proposed method is higher than that of the existing protocol, and the former convergence speed of the synchronization error is faster.

AN INTEGRATED PHOTOGRAMMETRIC AND PHOTOCLINOMETRIC APPROACH FOR PIXEL-RESOLUTION 3D MODELLING OF LUNAR SURFACE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. C. Liu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available High-resolution 3D modelling of lunar surface is important for lunar scientific research and exploration missions. Photogrammetry is known for 3D mapping and modelling from a pair of stereo images based on dense image matching. However dense matching may fail in poorly textured areas and in situations when the image pair has large illumination differences. As a result, the actual achievable spatial resolution of the 3D model from photogrammetry is limited by the performance of dense image matching. On the other hand, photoclinometry (i.e., shape from shading is characterised by its ability to recover pixel-wise surface shapes based on image intensity and imaging conditions such as illumination and viewing directions. More robust shape reconstruction through photoclinometry can be achieved by incorporating images acquired under different illumination conditions (i.e., photometric stereo. Introducing photoclinometry into photogrammetric processing can therefore effectively increase the achievable resolution of the mapping result while maintaining its overall accuracy. This research presents an integrated photogrammetric and photoclinometric approach for pixel-resolution 3D modelling of the lunar surface. First, photoclinometry is interacted with stereo image matching to create robust and spatially well distributed dense conjugate points. Then, based on the 3D point cloud derived from photogrammetric processing of the dense conjugate points, photoclinometry is further introduced to derive the 3D positions of the unmatched points and to refine the final point cloud. The approach is able to produce one 3D point for each image pixel within the overlapping area of the stereo pair so that to obtain pixel-resolution 3D models. Experiments using the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera - Narrow Angle Camera (LROC NAC images show the superior performances of the approach compared with traditional photogrammetric technique. The results and findings from this

Vibration Stabilization of a Mechanical Model of a X-Band Linear Collider Final Focus Magnet

CERN Document Server

Frisch, J; Decker, V; Hendrickson, L; Markiewicz, T W; Partridge, R; Seryi, Andrei

2004-01-01

The small beam sizes at the interaction point of a X-band linear collider require mechanical stabilization of the final focus magnets at the nanometer level. While passive systems provide adequate performance at many potential sites, active mechanical stabilization is useful if the natural or cultural ground vibration is higher than expected. A mechanical model of a room temperature linear collider final focus magnet has been constructed and actively stabilized with an accelerometer based system.

Vibration Stabilization of a Mechanical Model of a X-Band Linear Collider Final Focus Magnet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frisch, Josef; Chang, Allison; Decker, Valentin; Doyle, Eric; Eriksson, Leif; Hendrickson, Linda; Himel, Thomas; Markiewicz, Thomas; Partridge, Richard; Seryi, Andrei; SLAC

2006-01-01

The small beam sizes at the interaction point of a X-band linear collider require mechanical stabilization of the final focus magnets at the nanometer level. While passive systems provide adequate performance at many potential sites, active mechanical stabilization is useful if the natural or cultural ground vibration is higher than expected. A mechanical model of a room temperature linear collider final focus magnet has been constructed and actively stabilized with an accelerometer based system

Incorporating the CALPHAD sublattice approach of ordering into the phase-field model with finite interface dissipation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Lijun; Stratmann, Matthias; Du, Yong; Sundman, Bo; Steinbach, Ingo

2015-01-01

A new approach to incorporate the sublattice models in the CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagram) formalism directly into the phase-field formalism is developed. In binary alloys, the sublattice models can be classified into two types (i.e., “Type I” and “Type II”), depending on whether a direct one-to-one relation between the element site fraction in the CALPHAD database and the phase concentration in the phase-field model exists (Type I), or not (Type II). For “Type II” sublattice models, the specific site fractions, corresponding to a given mole fraction, have to be established via internal relaxation between different sublattices. Internal minimization of sublattice occupancy and solute evolution during microstructure transformation leads, in general, to a solution superior to the separate solution of the individual problems. The present coupling technique is validated for Fe–C and Ni–Al alloys. Finally, the model is extended into multicomponent alloys and applied to simulate the nucleation process of VC monocarbide from austenite matrix in a steel containing vanadium

A Model for the Acceptance of Cloud Computing Technology Using DEMATEL Technique and System Dynamics Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

seyyed mohammad zargar

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Cloud computing is a new method to provide computing resources and increase computing power in organizations. Despite the many benefits this method shares, it has not been universally used because of some obstacles including security issues and has become a concern for IT managers in organization. In this paper, the general definition of cloud computing is presented. In addition, having reviewed previous studies, the researchers identified effective variables on technology acceptance and, especially, cloud computing technology. Then, using DEMATEL technique, the effectiveness and permeability of the variable were determined. The researchers also designed a model to show the existing dynamics in cloud computing technology using system dynamics approach. The validity of the model was confirmed through evaluation methods in dynamics model by using VENSIM software. Finally, based on different conditions of the proposed model, a variety of scenarios were designed. Then, the implementation of these scenarios was simulated within the proposed model. The results showed that any increase in data security, government support and user training can lead to the increase in the adoption and use of cloud computing technology.

A systemic approach to modelling of radiobiological effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Obaturov, G.M.

1988-01-01

Basic principles of the systemic approach to modelling of the radiobiological effects at different levels of cell organization have been formulated. The methodology is proposed for theoretical modelling of the effects at these levels

A rough set-based association rule approach implemented on a brand trust evaluation model

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Shu-Hsien; Chen, Yin-Ju

2017-09-01

In commerce, businesses use branding to differentiate their product and service offerings from those of their competitors. The brand incorporates a set of product or service features that are associated with that particular brand name and identifies the product/service segmentation in the market. This study proposes a new data mining approach, a rough set-based association rule induction, implemented on a brand trust evaluation model. In addition, it presents as one way to deal with data uncertainty to analyse ratio scale data, while creating predictive if-then rules that generalise data values to the retail region. As such, this study uses the analysis of algorithms to find alcoholic beverages brand trust recall. Finally, discussions and conclusion are presented for further managerial implications.

Dynamics and control of quadcopter using linear model predictive control approach

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, M.; Okasha, M.; Idres, M. M.

2017-12-01

This paper investigates the dynamics and control of a quadcopter using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) approach. The dynamic model is of high fidelity and nonlinear, with six degrees of freedom that include disturbances and model uncertainties. The control approach is developed based on MPC to track different reference trajectories ranging from simple ones such as circular to complex helical trajectories. In this control technique, a linearized model is derived and the receding horizon method is applied to generate the optimal control sequence. Although MPC is computer expensive, it is highly effective to deal with the different types of nonlinearities and constraints such as actuators’ saturation and model uncertainties. The MPC parameters (control and prediction horizons) are selected by trial-and-error approach. Several simulation scenarios are performed to examine and evaluate the performance of the proposed control approach using MATLAB and Simulink environment. Simulation results show that this control approach is highly effective to track a given reference trajectory.

Model-centric approaches for the development of health information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuomainen, Mika; Mykkänen, Juha; Luostarinen, Heli; Pöyhölä, Assi; Paakkanen, Esa

2007-01-01

Modeling is used increasingly in healthcare to increase shared knowledge, to improve the processes, and to document the requirements of the solutions related to health information systems (HIS). There are numerous modeling approaches which aim to support these aims, but a careful assessment of their strengths, weaknesses and deficiencies is needed. In this paper, we compare three model-centric approaches in the context of HIS development: the Model-Driven Architecture, Business Process Modeling with BPMN and BPEL and the HL7 Development Framework. The comparison reveals that all these approaches are viable candidates for the development of HIS. However, they have distinct strengths and abstraction levels, they require local and project-specific adaptation and offer varying levels of automation. In addition, illustration of the solutions to the end users must be improved.

Neurons to algorithms LDRD final report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rothganger, Fredrick H.; Aimone, James Bradley; Warrender, Christina E.; Trumbo, Derek

2013-09-01

Over the last three years the Neurons to Algorithms (N2A) LDRD project teams has built infrastructure to discover computational structures in the brain. This consists of a modeling language, a tool that enables model development and simulation in that language, and initial connections with the Neuroinformatics community, a group working toward similar goals. The approach of N2A is to express large complex systems like the brain as populations of a discrete part types that have specific structural relationships with each other, along with internal and structural dynamics. Such an evolving mathematical system may be able to capture the essence of neural processing, and ultimately of thought itself. This final report is a cover for the actual products of the project: the N2A Language Specification, the N2A Application, and a journal paper summarizing our methods.

Remote handling dynamical modelling: assessment on new approach to enhance positioning accuracy with heavy load manipulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gagarina-Sasia, T.; David, O.; Dubus, G.; Perrot, Y.; Riwain, A.

2007-01-01

In vessel maintenance work in Fusion Tokamak will be carried out with help several sets of robotic devices. Heavy loads handling in constrained space is identified by all players of the RH community as a key-issue in the latest Fusion Tokamak facilities. To deal with high-level dexterity tasks, high payload to mass ratio and limited operating space, RH equipment designers can only propose systems whose mechanical flexibility is no longer negligible and need to be taken into account in the control scheme. Traditional approaches where control system only includes a linear model of deformation of the structure leads to poor positioning accuracy. Uncontrolled or under evaluated errors could be damaging for in-vessel components during maintenance operations in the Tokamak facility. To address the control of complex flexible systems, we will investigate the use of specific mechanical software that combines both finite element and kinematical joints analyses, with a strong-coupled formulation, to perform system dynamics simulations. This procedure will be applied on a single axis mock up robotic joint with highly flexible structure. A comparison of experimental results with the traditional linear approach and the specified software model will be carried out. Benefits introduced by this new approach will finally be assessed in view of RH design or specification in the field of RH in Fusion Tokamak scale such as ITER. (orig.)

Meson dynamics beyond the quark model: a study of final state interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Au, K.L.; Pennington, M.R.; Morgan, D.

1986-09-01

A scalar glueball is predicted in the 1 GeV mass region. The present analysis is concerned with experimental evidence for such a state. Recent high statistics results on central dimeson production at the ISR enable the authors to perform an extensive new coupled channel analysis of I = O S-wave ππ and KK-bar final states. This unambiguously reveals three resonances in the 1 GeV region - S 1 (991), S 2 (988) and epsilon(900) - where the naive quark model expects just two. These new features are discussed including how they may be confirmed experimentally and their present interpretation. The S 1 (991) is a plausible candidate for the scalar glueball. Other production reactions are examined (heavy flavour decays and γγ reactions) which lead to the same final states. (author)

sigma model approach to the heterotic string theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, A.

1985-09-01

Relation between the equations of motion for the massless fields in the heterotic string theory, and the conformal invariance of the sigma model describing the propagation of the heterotic string in arbitrary background massless fields is discussed. It is emphasized that this sigma model contains complete information about the string theory. Finally, we discuss the extension of the Hull-Witten proof of local gauge and Lorentz invariance of the sigma-model to higher order in α', and the modification of the transformation laws of the antisymmetric tensor field under these symmetries. Presence of anomaly in the naive N = 1/2 supersymmetry transformation is also pointed out in this context. 12 refs

Risk Modelling for Passages in Approach Channel

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leszek Smolarek

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Methods of multivariate statistics, stochastic processes, and simulation methods are used to identify and assess the risk measures. This paper presents the use of generalized linear models and Markov models to study risks to ships along the approach channel. These models combined with simulation testing are used to determine the time required for continuous monitoring of endangered objects or period at which the level of risk should be verified.

Fracture network modelling: an integrated approach for realisation of complex fracture network geometries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Srivastava, R.M.

2007-01-01

In its efforts to improve geological support of the safety case, Ontario Power Generation's Deep Geologic Repository Technology Programme (DGRTP) has developed a procedure (Srivastava, 2002) for creating realistic 3-D fracture network models (FNMs) that honor information typically available at the time of preliminary site characterisation: By accommodating all of the these various pieces of 'hard' and 'soft' data, these FNMs provide a single, coherent and consistent model that can serve the needs of many preliminary site characterisation studies. The detailed, complex and realistic models of 3-D fracture geometry produced by this method can serve as the basis for developing rock property models to be used in flow and transport studies. They can also be used for exploring the suitability of a proposed site by providing quantitative assessments of the probability that a proposed repository with a specified geometry will be intersected by fractures. When integrated with state-of-the-art scientific visualisation, these models can also help in the planning of additional data gathering activities by identifying critical fractures that merit further detailed investigation. Finally, these FNMs can serve as one of the central elements of the presentation and explanation of the Descriptive Conceptual Geosphere Model (DCM) to other interested parties, including non-technical audiences. In addition to being ideally suited to preliminary site characterisation, the approach also readily incorporates field data that may become available during subsequent site investigations, including ground reconnaissance, borehole programmes and other subsurface studies. A single approach can therefore serve the needs of the site characterisation from its inception through several years of data collection and more detailed site-specific investigations, accommodating new data as they become available and updating the FNMs accordingly. The FNMs from this method are probabilistic in the sense that

Final Thesis Models in European Teacher Education and Their Orientation towards the Academy and the Teaching Profession

Science.gov (United States)

Råde, Anders

2014-01-01

This study concerns different final thesis models in the research on teacher education in Europe and their orientation towards the academy and the teaching profession. In scientific journals, 33 articles support the occurrence of three models: the portfolio model, with a mainly teaching-professional orientation; the thesis model, with a mainly…

An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne

2003-07-01

Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical

Model Orlando regionally efficient travel management coordination center (MORE TMCC), phase II : final report.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

The final report for the Model Orlando Regionally Efficient Travel Management Coordination Center (MORE TMCC) presents the details of : the 2-year process of the partial deployment of the original MORE TMCC design created in Phase I of this project...

Feedback structure based entropy approach for multiple-model estimation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Shen-tu Han; Xue Anke; Guo Yunfei

2013-01-01

The variable-structure multiple-model (VSMM) approach, one of the multiple-model (MM) methods, is a popular and effective approach in handling problems with mode uncertainties. The model sequence set adaptation (MSA) is the key to design a better VSMM. However, MSA methods in the literature have big room to improve both theoretically and practically. To this end, we propose a feedback structure based entropy approach that could find the model sequence sets with the smallest size under certain conditions. The filtered data are fed back in real time and can be used by the minimum entropy (ME) based VSMM algorithms, i.e., MEVSMM. Firstly, the full Markov chains are used to achieve optimal solutions. Secondly, the myopic method together with particle filter (PF) and the challenge match algorithm are also used to achieve sub-optimal solutions, a trade-off between practicability and optimality. The numerical results show that the proposed algorithm provides not only refined model sets but also a good robustness margin and very high accuracy.

Final Report: The Influence of Novel Behavioral Strategies in Promoting the Diffusion of Solar Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gillingham, Kenneth [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States); Bollinger, Bryan [Duke Univ., Durham, NC (United States)

2017-08-30

This is the final report for a systematic, evidence-based project using an unprecedented series of large-scale field experiments to examine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of novel approaches to reduce the soft costs of solar residential photovoltaics. The approaches were based around grassroots marketing campaigns called ‘Solarize’ campaigns, that were designed to lower costs and increase adoption of solar technology. This study quantified the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the Solarize programs and tested new approaches to further improve the model.

Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taha Zaghdoudi

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a Bayesian approach. The results of this approach have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

A Regionalization Approach to select the final watershed parameter set among the Pareto solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Park, G. H.; Micheletty, P. D.; Carney, S.; Quebbeman, J.; Day, G. N.

2017-12-01

The calibration of hydrological models often results in model parameters that are inconsistent with those from neighboring basins. Considering that physical similarity exists within neighboring basins some of the physically related parameters should be consistent among them. Traditional manual calibration techniques require an iterative process to make the parameters consistent, which takes additional effort in model calibration. We developed a multi-objective optimization procedure to calibrate the National Weather Service (NWS) Research Distributed Hydrological Model (RDHM), using the Nondominant Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II) with expert knowledge of the model parameter interrelationships one objective function. The multi-objective algorithm enables us to obtain diverse parameter sets that are equally acceptable with respect to the objective functions and to choose one from the pool of the parameter sets during a subsequent regionalization step. Although all Pareto solutions are non-inferior, we exclude some of the parameter sets that show extremely values for any of the objective functions to expedite the selection process. We use an apriori model parameter set derived from the physical properties of the watershed (Koren et al., 2000) to assess the similarity for a given parameter across basins. Each parameter is assigned a weight based on its assumed similarity, such that parameters that are similar across basins are given higher weights. The parameter weights are useful to compute a closeness measure between Pareto sets of nearby basins. The regionalization approach chooses the Pareto parameter sets that minimize the closeness measure of the basin being regionalized. The presentation will describe the results of applying the regionalization approach to a set of pilot basins in the Upper Colorado basin as part of a NASA-funded project.

Uncertainty Modeling and Robust Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Discrete Systems: A Mathematical Programming Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olav Slupphaug

2001-01-01

Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.

Hypercompetitive Environments: An Agent-based model approach

Science.gov (United States)

Dias, Manuel; Araújo, Tanya

Information technology (IT) environments are characterized by complex changes and rapid evolution. Globalization and the spread of technological innovation have increased the need for new strategic information resources, both from individual firms and management environments. Improvements in multidisciplinary methods and, particularly, the availability of powerful computational tools, are giving researchers an increasing opportunity to investigate management environments in their true complex nature. The adoption of a complex systems approach allows for modeling business strategies from a bottom-up perspective — understood as resulting from repeated and local interaction of economic agents — without disregarding the consequences of the business strategies themselves to individual behavior of enterprises, emergence of interaction patterns between firms and management environments. Agent-based models are at the leading approach of this attempt.

A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Qureshi, Zahid H

2008-01-01

.... This report provides a review of key traditional accident modelling approaches and their limitations, and describes new system-theoretic approaches to the modelling and analysis of accidents in safety-critical systems...

Parameter identification and global sensitivity analysis of Xin'anjiang model using meta-modeling approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-meng Song

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on (1 a screening method (Morris for qualitative ranking of parameters, and (2 a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model (RSMSobol. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters' sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model (RSM were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.

A Fault Diagnosis Approach for Gears Based on IMF AR Model and SVM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu Yang

2008-05-01

Full Text Available An accurate autoregressive (AR model can reflect the characteristics of a dynamic system based on which the fault feature of gear vibration signal can be extracted without constructing mathematical model and studying the fault mechanism of gear vibration system, which are experienced by the time-frequency analysis methods. However, AR model can only be applied to stationary signals, while the gear fault vibration signals usually present nonstationary characteristics. Therefore, empirical mode decomposition (EMD, which can decompose the vibration signal into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs, is introduced into feature extraction of gear vibration signals as a preprocessor before AR models are generated. On the other hand, by targeting the difficulties of obtaining sufficient fault samples in practice, support vector machine (SVM is introduced into gear fault pattern recognition. In the proposed method in this paper, firstly, vibration signals are decomposed into a finite number of intrinsic mode functions, then the AR model of each IMF component is established; finally, the corresponding autoregressive parameters and the variance of remnant are regarded as the fault characteristic vectors and used as input parameters of SVM classifier to classify the working condition of gears. The experimental analysis results show that the proposed approach, in which IMF AR model and SVM are combined, can identify working condition of gears with a success rate of 100% even in the case of smaller number of samples.

Analysis of Final Energy Demand by Sector in Malaysia using MAED Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, M.; Muhammed Zulfakar Mohd Zolkaffly; Alawiah Musa

2011-01-01

Energy supply security is important in ensuring a long term supply to fulfill the growing energy demand. This paper presents the use of IAEA energy planning tool, Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED) to analyze, simulate and compare final energy demand by five different sectors in Malaysia under some assumptions, bounds and restrictions and the outcome can be used for planning of energy supply in future. (author)

Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

Science.gov (United States)

Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

2018-02-01

Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Simple Heuristic Approach to Introduction of the Black-Scholes Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yalamova, Rossitsa

2010-01-01

A heuristic approach to explaining of the Black-Scholes option pricing model in undergraduate classes is described. The approach draws upon the method of protocol analysis to encourage students to "think aloud" so that their mental models can be surfaced. It also relies upon extensive visualizations to communicate relationships that are…

A Knowledge Model Sharing Based Approach to Privacy-Preserving Data Mining

OpenAIRE

Hongwei Tian; Weining Zhang; Shouhuai Xu; Patrick Sharkey

2012-01-01

Privacy-preserving data mining (PPDM) is an important problem and is currently studied in three approaches: the cryptographic approach, the data publishing, and the model publishing. However, each of these approaches has some problems. The cryptographic approach does not protect privacy of learned knowledge models and may have performance and scalability issues. The data publishing, although is popular, may suffer from too much utility loss for certain types of data mining applications. The m...

A new approach to Naturalness in SUSY models

CERN Document Server

Ghilencea, D M

2013-01-01

We review recent results that provide a new approach to the old problem of naturalness in supersymmetric models, without relying on subjective definitions for the fine-tuning associated with {\\it fixing} the EW scale (to its measured value) in the presence of quantum corrections. The approach can address in a model-independent way many questions related to this problem. The results show that naturalness and its measure (fine-tuning) are an intrinsic part of the likelihood to fit the data that {\\it includes} the EW scale. One important consequence is that the additional {\\it constraint} of fixing the EW scale, usually not imposed in the data fits of the models, impacts on their overall likelihood to fit the data (or chi^2/ndf, ndf: number of degrees of freedom). This has negative implications for the viability of currently popular supersymmetric extensions of the Standard Model.

Analyzing the impacts of final demand changes on total output using input-output approach: The case of Japanese ICT sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Zuhdi, Ubaidillah

2014-03-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of final demand changes on total output of Japanese Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sectors in future time. This study employs one of analysis tool in Input-Output (IO) analysis, demand-pull IO quantity model, in achieving the purpose. There are three final demand changes used in this study, namely (1) export, (2) import, and (3) outside households consumption changes. This study focuses on "pure change" condition, the condition that final demand changes only appear in analyzed sectors. The results show that export and outside households consumption modifications give positive impact while opposite impact could be seen in import change.

A Set Theoretical Approach to Maturity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lasrado, Lester; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

2016-01-01

characterized by equifinality, multiple conjunctural causation, and case diversity. We prescribe methodological guidelines consisting of a six-step procedure to systematically apply set theoretic methods to conceptualize, develop, and empirically derive maturity models and provide a demonstration......Maturity Model research in IS has been criticized for the lack of theoretical grounding, methodological rigor, empirical validations, and ignorance of multiple and non-linear paths to maturity. To address these criticisms, this paper proposes a novel set-theoretical approach to maturity models...

An integrated modeling approach to age invariant face recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Alvi, Fahad Bashir; Pears, Russel

2015-03-01

This Research study proposes a novel method for face recognition based on Anthropometric features that make use of an integrated approach comprising of a global and personalized models. The system is aimed to at situations where lighting, illumination, and pose variations cause problems in face recognition. A Personalized model covers the individual aging patterns while a Global model captures general aging patterns in the database. We introduced a de-aging factor that de-ages each individual in the database test and training sets. We used the k nearest neighbor approach for building a personalized model and global model. Regression analysis was applied to build the models. During the test phase, we resort to voting on different features. We used FG-Net database for checking the results of our technique and achieved 65 percent Rank 1 identification rate.

Variational approach to chiral quark models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Futami, Yasuhiko; Odajima, Yasuhiko; Suzuki, Akira

1987-03-01

A variational approach is applied to a chiral quark model to test the validity of the perturbative treatment of the pion-quark interaction based on the chiral symmetry principle. It is indispensably related to the chiral symmetry breaking radius if the pion-quark interaction can be regarded as a perturbation.

Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

CERN Document Server

Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

2016-01-01

Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

Learning the Task Management Space of an Aircraft Approach Model

Science.gov (United States)

Krall, Joseph; Menzies, Tim; Davies, Misty

2014-01-01

Validating models of airspace operations is a particular challenge. These models are often aimed at finding and exploring safety violations, and aim to be accurate representations of real-world behavior. However, the rules governing the behavior are quite complex: nonlinear physics, operational modes, human behavior, and stochastic environmental concerns all determine the responses of the system. In this paper, we present a study on aircraft runway approaches as modeled in Georgia Tech's Work Models that Compute (WMC) simulation. We use a new learner, Genetic-Active Learning for Search-Based Software Engineering (GALE) to discover the Pareto frontiers defined by cognitive structures. These cognitive structures organize the prioritization and assignment of tasks of each pilot during approaches. We discuss the benefits of our approach, and also discuss future work necessary to enable uncertainty quantification.

Gray-box modelling approach for description of storage tunnel

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harremoës, Poul; Carstensen, Jacob

1999-01-01

The dynamics of a storage tunnel is examined using a model based on on-line measured data and a combination of simple deterministic and black-box stochastic elements. This approach, called gray-box modeling, is a new promising methodology for giving an on-line state description of sewer systems...... of the water in the overflow structures. The capacity of a pump draining the storage tunnel is estimated for two different rain events, revealing that the pump was malfunctioning during the first rain event. The proposed modeling approach can be used in automated online surveillance and control and implemented...

A study of multidimensional modeling approaches for data warehouse

Science.gov (United States)

Yusof, Sharmila Mat; Sidi, Fatimah; Ibrahim, Hamidah; Affendey, Lilly Suriani

2016-08-01

Data warehouse system is used to support the process of organizational decision making. Hence, the system must extract and integrate information from heterogeneous data sources in order to uncover relevant knowledge suitable for decision making process. However, the development of data warehouse is a difficult and complex process especially in its conceptual design (multidimensional modeling). Thus, there have been various approaches proposed to overcome the difficulty. This study surveys and compares the approaches of multidimensional modeling and highlights the issues, trend and solution proposed to date. The contribution is on the state of the art of the multidimensional modeling design.

Microwave modeling of laser plasma interactions. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-08-01

For a large laser fusion targets and nanosecond pulse lengths, stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) and self-focusing are expected to be significant problems. The goal of the contractual effort was to examine certain aspects of these physical phenomena in a wavelength regime (lambda approx.5 cm) more amenable to detailed diagnostics than that characteristic of laser fusion (lambda approx.1 micron). The effort was to include the design, fabrication and operation of a suitable experimental apparatus. In addition, collaboration with Dr. Neville Luhmann and his associates at UCLA and with Dr. Curt Randall of LLNL, on analysis and modelling of the UCLA experiments was continued. Design and fabrication of the TRW experiment is described under ''Experiment Design'' and ''Experimental Apparatus''. The design goals for the key elements of the experimental apparatus were met, but final integration and operation of the experiment was not accomplished. Some theoretical considerations on the interaction between Stimulated Brillouin Scattering and Self-Focusing are also presented

Modelling efficient innovative work: integration of economic and social psychological approaches

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Babanova Yulia

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the relevance of integration of economic and social psychological approaches to the solution of enhancing the efficiency of innovation management. The content, features and specifics of the modelling methods within each of approaches are unfolded and options of integration are considered. The economic approach lies in the generation of the integrated matrix concept of management of innovative development of an enterprise in line with the stages of innovative work and the use of the integrated vector method for the evaluation of the innovative enterprise development level. The social psychological approach lies in the development of a system of psychodiagnostic indexes of activity resources within the scope of psychological innovative audit of enterprise management and development of modelling methods for the balance of activity trends. Modelling the activity resources is based on the system of equations accounting for the interaction type of psychodiagnostic indexes. Integration of two approaches includes a methodological level, a level of empirical studies and modelling methods. There are suggested options of integrating the economic and psychological approaches to analyze available material and non-material resources of the enterprises’ innovative work and to forecast an optimal option of development based on the implemented modelling methods.

Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning A Modeling-Based Approach

CERN Document Server

Naser, Arab

2012-01-01

Intelligent Transportation and Evacuation Planning: A Modeling-Based Approach provides a new paradigm for evacuation planning strategies and techniques. Recently, evacuation planning and modeling have increasingly attracted interest among researchers as well as government officials. This interest stems from the recent catastrophic hurricanes and weather-related events that occurred in the southeastern United States (Hurricane Katrina and Rita). The evacuation methods that were in place before and during the hurricanes did not work well and resulted in thousands of deaths. This book offers insights into the methods and techniques that allow for implementing mathematical-based, simulation-based, and integrated optimization and simulation-based engineering approaches for evacuation planning. This book also: Comprehensively discusses the application of mathematical models for evacuation and intelligent transportation modeling Covers advanced methodologies in evacuation modeling and planning Discusses principles a...

Fast algorithms for transport models. Final report, June 1, 1993--May 31, 1994

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manteuffel, T.

1994-12-01

The focus of this project is the study of multigrid and multilevel algorithms for the numerical solution of Boltzmann models of the transport of neutral and charged particles. In previous work a fast multigrid algorithm was developed for the numerical solution of the Boltzmann model of neutral particle transport in slab geometry assuming isotropic scattering. The new algorithm is extremely fast in the thick diffusion limit; the multigrid v-cycle convergence factor approaches zero as the mean-free-path between collisions approaches zero, independent of the mesh. Also, a fast multilevel method was developed for the numerical solution of the Boltzmann model of charged particle transport in the thick Fokker-Plank limit for slab geometry. Parallel implementations were developed for both algorithms

Quasirelativistic quark model in quasipotential approach

CERN Document Server

Matveev, V A; Savrin, V I; Sissakian, A N

2002-01-01

The relativistic particles interaction is described within the frames of quasipotential approach. The presentation is based on the so called covariant simultaneous formulation of the quantum field theory, where by the theory is considered on the spatial-like three-dimensional hypersurface in the Minkowski space. Special attention is paid to the methods of plotting various quasipotentials as well as to the applications of the quasipotential approach to describing the characteristics of the relativistic particles interaction in the quark models, namely: the hadrons elastic scattering amplitudes, the mass spectra and widths mesons decays, the cross sections of the deep inelastic leptons scattering on the hadrons

A new approach in nuclear risk theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serbanescu, D.

1994-01-01

The basic problem of the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the errors evaluation. The main contributor to the final PSA results is the systematical error induced by the method itself. There may be some alternatives to the PSA classical approaches. All the new more successful approaches in the PSA results validation are related to the modelling problem. A comparison between two possible approaches for a pressurized heavy water reactor (PHWR) leakage event tree is included: The new approach proposed in (Serbanescu, 1991); the approach used in (Serbanescu, 1992), based on some unexplored yet features of the existing PSA analyses. The results are presented in relative units and an algorithm which was already implemented on an IBM.PC computer (Serbanescu, 1991) is used as a tool to decisions making tool. The decision making process should be based on a nuclear power plant (NPP) between modelling from the risk analysis point of view. This is the main feature of the proposed approach. (author). 4 refs, 2 figs, 2 tabs

A model-data based systems approach to process intensification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gani, Rafiqul

. Their developments, however, are largely due to experiment based trial and error approaches and while they do not require validation, they can be time consuming and resource intensive. Also, one may ask, can a truly new intensified unit operation be obtained in this way? An alternative two-stage approach is to apply...... a model-based synthesis method to systematically generate and evaluate alternatives in the first stage and an experiment-model based validation in the second stage. In this way, the search for alternatives is done very quickly, reliably and systematically over a wide range, while resources are preserved...... for focused validation of only the promising candidates in the second-stage. This approach, however, would be limited to intensification based on “known” unit operations, unless the PI process synthesis/design is considered at a lower level of aggregation, namely the phenomena level. That is, the model-based...

Test validation of environmental barrier coating (EBC) durability and damage tolerance modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul-Aziz, Ali; Najafi, Ali; Abdi, Frank; Bhatt, Ramakrishna T.; Grady, Joseph E.

2014-03-01

Protection of Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) is rather an important element for the engine manufacturers and aerospace companies to help improve the durability of their hot engine components. The CMC's are typically porous materials which permits some desirable infiltration that lead to strength enhancements. However, they experience various durability issues such as degradation due to coating oxidation. These concerns are being addressed by introducing a high temperature protective system, Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) that can operate at temperature applications1, 3 In this paper, linear elastic progressive failure analyses are performed to evaluate conditions that would cause crack initiation in the EBC. The analysis is to determine the overall failure sequence under tensile loading conditions on different layers of material including the EBC and CMC in an attempt to develop a life/failure model. A 3D finite element model of a dogbone specimen is constructed for the analyses. Damage initiation, propagation and final failure is captured using a progressive failure model considering tensile loading conditions at room temperature. It is expected that this study will establish a process for using a computational approach, validated at a specimen level, to predict reliably in the future component level performance without resorting to extensive testing.

A novel approach of modeling continuous dark hydrogen fermentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandropoulou, Maria; Antonopoulou, Georgia; Lyberatos, Gerasimos

2018-02-01

In this study a novel modeling approach for describing fermentative hydrogen production in a continuous stirred tank reactor (CSTR) was developed, using the Aquasim modeling platform. This model accounts for the key metabolic reactions taking place in a fermentative hydrogen producing reactor, using fixed stoichiometry but different reaction rates. Biomass yields are determined based on bioenergetics. The model is capable of describing very well the variation in the distribution of metabolic products for a wide range of hydraulic retention times (HRT). The modeling approach is demonstrated using the experimental data obtained from a CSTR, fed with food industry waste (FIW), operating at different HRTs. The kinetic parameters were estimated through fitting to the experimental results. Hydrogen and total biogas production rates were predicted very well by the model, validating the basic assumptions regarding the implicated stoichiometric biochemical reactions and their kinetic rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An interdisciplinary approach for earthquake modelling and forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Han, P.; Zhuang, J.; Hattori, K.; Ogata, Y.

2016-12-01

Earthquake is one of the most serious disasters, which may cause heavy casualties and economic losses. Especially in the past two decades, huge/mega earthquakes have hit many countries. Effective earthquake forecasting (including time, location, and magnitude) becomes extremely important and urgent. To date, various heuristically derived algorithms have been developed for forecasting earthquakes. Generally, they can be classified into two types: catalog-based approaches and non-catalog-based approaches. Thanks to the rapid development of statistical seismology in the past 30 years, now we are able to evaluate the performances of these earthquake forecast approaches quantitatively. Although a certain amount of precursory information is available in both earthquake catalogs and non-catalog observations, the earthquake forecast is still far from satisfactory. In most case, the precursory phenomena were studied individually. An earthquake model that combines self-exciting and mutually exciting elements was developed by Ogata and Utsu from the Hawkes process. The core idea of this combined model is that the status of the event at present is controlled by the event itself (self-exciting) and all the external factors (mutually exciting) in the past. In essence, the conditional intensity function is a time-varying Poisson process with rate λ(t), which is composed of the background rate, the self-exciting term (the information from past seismic events), and the external excitation term (the information from past non-seismic observations). This model shows us a way to integrate the catalog-based forecast and non-catalog-based forecast. Against this background, we are trying to develop a new earthquake forecast model which combines catalog-based and non-catalog-based approaches.

A New Approach for Magneto-Static Hysteresis Behavioral Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Astorino, Antonio; Swaminathan, Madhavan; Antonini, Giulio

2016-01-01

in this paper is based on simple functions, which do not require calculus to be involved, thus assuring a very good efficiency in the algorithm. In addition, the proposed method enables initial magnetization curves, symmetric loops, minor loops, normal curves, and reversal curves of any order to be reproduced......, as demonstrated through the pertinent results provided in this paper. A model example based on the proposed modeling technique is also introduced and used as inductor core, in order to simulate an LR series circuit. Finally, the model ability to emulate hysteretic inductors is proved by the satisfactory agreement...

Constructing a justice model based on Sen's capability approach

OpenAIRE

Yüksel, Sevgi; Yuksel, Sevgi

2008-01-01

The thesis provides a possible justice model based on Sen's capability approach. For this goal, we first analyze the general structure of a theory of justice, identifying the main variables and issues. Furthermore, based on Sen (2006) and Kolm (1998), we look at 'transcendental' and 'comparative' approaches to justice and concentrate on the sufficiency condition for the comparative approach. Then, taking Rawls' theory of justice as a starting point, we present how Sen's capability approach em...

Biotic interactions in the face of climate change: a comparison of three modelling approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anja Jaeschke

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to alter biotic interactions, and may lead to temporal and spatial mismatches of interacting species. Although the importance of interactions for climate change risk assessments is increasingly acknowledged in observational and experimental studies, biotic interactions are still rarely incorporated in species distribution models. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the obligate interaction between Aeshna viridis and its egg-laying plant Stratiotes aloides in Europe, based on an ensemble modelling technique. We compared three different approaches for incorporating biotic interactions in distribution models: (1 We separately modelled each species based on climatic information, and intersected the future range overlap ('overlap approach'. (2 We modelled the potential future distribution of A. viridis with the projected occurrence probability of S. aloides as further predictor in addition to climate ('explanatory variable approach'. (3 We calibrated the model of A. viridis in the current range of S. aloides and multiplied the future occurrence probabilities of both species ('reference area approach'. Subsequently, all approaches were compared to a single species model of A. viridis without interactions. All approaches projected a range expansion for A. viridis. Model performance on test data and amount of range gain differed depending on the biotic interaction approach. All interaction approaches yielded lower range gains (up to 667% lower than the model without interaction. Regarding the contribution of algorithm and approach to the overall uncertainty, the main part of explained variation stems from the modelling algorithm, and only a small part is attributed to the modelling approach. The comparison of the no-interaction model with the three interaction approaches emphasizes the importance of including obligate biotic interactions in projective species distribution modelling. We recommend the use of

Top-down approach to unified supergravity models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hempfling, R.

1994-03-01

We introduce a new approach for studying unified supergravity models. In this approach all the parameters of the grand unified theory (GUT) are fixed by imposing the corresponding number of low energy observables. This determines the remaining particle spectrum whose dependence on the low energy observables can now be investigated. We also include some SUSY threshold corrections that have previously been neglected. In particular the SUSY threshold corrections to the fermion masses can have a significant impact on the Yukawa coupling unification. (orig.)

Final-year diagnostic radiography students' perception of role models within the profession.

Science.gov (United States)

Conway, Alinya; Lewis, Sarah; Robinson, John

2008-01-01

Within a clinical education setting, the value of role models and prescribed mentors can be seen as an important influence in shaping the student's future as a diagnostic radiographer. A study was undertaken to create a new understanding of how diagnostic radiography students perceive role models and professional behavior in the workforce. The study aimed to determine the impact of clinical education in determining modeling expectations, role model identification and attributes, and the integration of academic education and "hands-on" clinical practice in preparing diagnostic radiography students to enter the workplace. Thirteen final-year (third-year) diagnostic radiography students completed an hour-long interview regarding their experiences and perceptions of role models while on clinical placement. The key concepts that emerged illustrated that students gravitate toward radiographers who enjoy sharing practical experiences with students and are good communicators. Unique to diagnostic radiography, students made distinctions about the presence of role models in private versus public service delivery. This study gives insight to clinical educators in diagnostic radiography and wider allied health into how students perceive role models, interact with preceptors, and combine real-life experiences with formal learning.

Modelling of air quality for Winter and Summer episodes in Switzerland. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Keller, J.; Barmpadimos, L.; Oderbolz, D.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A. [Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry, Villigen (Switzerland); Alfarra, R. [University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Sandradewi, J. [Jisca Sandradewi, Hoexter (Germany)

2009-05-15

This final report issued by the General Energy Research Department and its Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) reports on the results obtained from the modelling of regional air quality for three episodes, January-February 2006, June 2006 and January 2007. The focus of the calculations is on particulate matter concentrations, as well as on ozone levels in summer. The model results were compared with the aerosol data collected by an Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS), which was operated during all three episodes as well as with the air quality monitoring data from further monitoring programs. The air quality model used in this study is described and the results obtained for various types of locations - rural, city, high-altitude and motorway-near - are presented and discussed. The models used are described.

Unraveling the Mechanisms of Manual Therapy: Modeling an Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bialosky, Joel E; Beneciuk, Jason M; Bishop, Mark D; Coronado, Rogelio A; Penza, Charles W; Simon, Corey B; George, Steven Z

2018-01-01

Synopsis Manual therapy interventions are popular among individual health care providers and their patients; however, systematic reviews do not strongly support their effectiveness. Small treatment effect sizes of manual therapy interventions may result from a "one-size-fits-all" approach to treatment. Mechanistic-based treatment approaches to manual therapy offer an intriguing alternative for identifying patients likely to respond to manual therapy. However, the current lack of knowledge of the mechanisms through which manual therapy interventions inhibit pain limits such an approach. The nature of manual therapy interventions further confounds such an approach, as the related mechanisms are likely a complex interaction of factors related to the patient, the provider, and the environment in which the intervention occurs. Therefore, a model to guide both study design and the interpretation of findings is necessary. We have previously proposed a model suggesting that the mechanical force from a manual therapy intervention results in systemic neurophysiological responses leading to pain inhibition. In this clinical commentary, we provide a narrative appraisal of the model and recommendations to advance the study of manual therapy mechanisms. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2018;48(1):8-18. doi:10.2519/jospt.2018.7476.

A Proposed Approach for Joint Modeling of the Longitudinal and Time-To-Event Data in Heterogeneous Populations: An Application to HIV/AIDS’s Disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Narges Roustaei

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the joint models have been widely used for modeling the longitudinal and time-to-event data simultaneously. In this study, we proposed an approach (PA to study the longitudinal and survival outcomes simultaneously in heterogeneous populations. PA relaxes the assumption of conditional independence (CI. We also compared PA with joint latent class model (JLCM and separate approach (SA for various sample sizes (150, 300, and 600 and different association parameters (0, 0.2, and 0.5. The average bias of parameters estimation (AB-PE, average SE of parameters estimation (ASE-PE, and coverage probability of the 95% confidence interval (CP among the three approaches were compared. In most cases, when the sample sizes increased, AB-PE and ASE-PE decreased for the three approaches, and CP got closer to the nominal level of 0.95. When there was a considerable association, PA in comparison with SA and JLCM performed better in the sense that PA had the smallest AB-PE and ASE-PE for the longitudinal submodel among the three approaches for the small and moderate sample sizes. Moreover, JLCM was desirable for the none-association and the large sample size. Finally, the evaluated approaches were applied on a real HIV/AIDS dataset for validation, and the results were compared.

A Model-Driven Approach to e-Course Management

Science.gov (United States)

Savic, Goran; Segedinac, Milan; Milenkovic, Dušica; Hrin, Tamara; Segedinac, Mirjana

2018-01-01

This paper presents research on using a model-driven approach to the development and management of electronic courses. We propose a course management system which stores a course model represented as distinct machine-readable components containing domain knowledge of different course aspects. Based on this formally defined platform-independent…

Modelling the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using a Grey-box approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

2006-01-01

identification of an overall model structure followed by data-based modelling, whereby the details of the model are identified. This approach is sometimes called grey-box modelling, but the specific approach used here does not require states to be specified. Overall, the paper demonstrates the power of the grey......-box approach. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

The process approach to service quality management

OpenAIRE

Kamila Kowalik; Dorota Klimecka-Tatar

2018-01-01

In this paper a model of service quality management based on the process approach has been presented. The first part of the article contains the theoretical framework of service quality and the process approach in management. Next, quality of service process has been presented in reference to a process-based definition in quoted literature. Finally, the outcomes of a customer questionnaire concerning the validity of particular quality attributes has been presented. The collected data in relat...

Fuzzy Investment Portfolio Selection Models Based on Interval Analysis Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Haifeng Guo

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper employs fuzzy set theory to solve the unintuitive problem of the Markowitz mean-variance (MV portfolio model and extend it to a fuzzy investment portfolio selection model. Our model establishes intervals for expected returns and risk preference, which can take into account investors' different investment appetite and thus can find the optimal resolution for each interval. In the empirical part, we test this model in Chinese stocks investment and find that this model can fulfill different kinds of investors’ objectives. Finally, investment risk can be decreased when we add investment limit to each stock in the portfolio, which indicates our model is useful in practice.

Analyzing the impacts of final demand changes on total output using input-output approach: The case of Japanese ICT sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zuhdi, Ubaidillah

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of final demand changes on total output of Japanese Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sectors in future time. This study employs one of analysis tool in Input-Output (IO) analysis, demand-pull IO quantity model, in achieving the purpose. There are three final demand changes used in this study, namely (1) export, (2) import, and (3) outside households consumption changes. This study focuses on ''pure change'' condition, the condition that final demand changes only appear in analyzed sectors. The results show that export and outside households consumption modifications give positive impact while opposite impact could be seen in import change

Modeling energy fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes employing a mosaic approach

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Priesack, Eckart

2015-04-01

Recent studies show that uncertainties in regional and global climate and weather simulations are partly due to inadequate descriptions of the energy flux exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. One major shortcoming is the limitation of the grid-cell resolution, which is recommended to be about at least 3x3 km² in most models due to limitations in the model physics. To represent each individual grid cell most models select one dominant soil type and one dominant land use type. This resolution, however, is often too coarse in regions where the spatial diversity of soil and land use types are high, e.g. in Central Europe. An elegant method to avoid the shortcoming of grid cell resolution is the so called mosaic approach. This approach is part of the recently developed ecosystem model framework Expert-N 5.0. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the characteristics of two managed fields, planted with winter wheat and potato, on the near surface soil moistures and on the near surface energy flux exchanges of the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. The simulated energy fluxes were compared with eddy flux tower measurements between the respective fields at the research farm Scheyern, North-West of Munich, Germany. To perform these simulations, we coupled the ecosystem model Expert-N 5.0 to an analytical footprint model. The coupled model system has the ability to calculate the mixing ratio of the surface energy fluxes at a given point within one grid cell (in this case at the flux tower between the two fields). This approach accounts for the differences of the two soil types, of land use managements, and of canopy properties due to footprint size dynamics. Our preliminary simulation results show that a mosaic approach can improve modeling and analyzing energy fluxes when the land surface is heterogeneous. In this case our applied method is a promising approach to extend weather and climate models on the regional and on the global scale.

Schedulability Analysis for Java Finalizers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøgholm, Thomas; Hansen, Rene Rydhof; Søndergaard, Hans

2010-01-01

Java finalizers perform clean-up and finalisation of objects at garbage collection time. In real-time Java profiles the use of finalizers is either discouraged (RTSJ, Ravenscar Java) or even disallowed (JSR-302), mainly because of the unpredictability of finalizers and in particular their impact...... on the schedulability analysis. In this paper we show that a controlled scoped memory model results in a structured and predictable execution of finalizers, more reminiscent of C++ destructors than Java finalizers. Furthermore, we incorporate finalizers into a (conservative) schedulability analysis for Predictable Java...... programs. Finally, we extend the SARTS tool for automated schedulability analysis of Java bytecode programs to handle finalizers in a fully automated way....

Designing water demand management schemes using a socio-technical modelling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Baki, Sotiria; Rozos, Evangelos; Makropoulos, Christos

2018-05-01

Although it is now widely acknowledged that urban water systems (UWSs) are complex socio-technical systems and that a shift towards a socio-technical approach is critical in achieving sustainable urban water management, still, more often than not, UWSs are designed using a segmented modelling approach. As such, either the analysis focuses on the description of the purely technical sub-system, without explicitly taking into account the system's dynamic socio-economic processes, or a more interdisciplinary approach is followed, but delivered through relatively coarse models, which often fail to provide a thorough representation of the urban water cycle and hence cannot deliver accurate estimations of the hydrosystem's responses. In this work we propose an integrated modelling approach for the study of the complete socio-technical UWS that also takes into account socio-economic and climatic variability. We have developed an integrated model, which is used to investigate the diffusion of household water conservation technologies and its effects on the UWS, under different socio-economic and climatic scenarios. The integrated model is formed by coupling a System Dynamics model that simulates the water technology adoption process, and the Urban Water Optioneering Tool (UWOT) for the detailed simulation of the urban water cycle. The model and approach are tested and demonstrated in an urban redevelopment area in Athens, Greece under different socio-economic scenarios and policy interventions. It is suggested that the proposed approach can establish quantifiable links between socio-economic change and UWS responses and therefore assist decision makers in designing more effective and resilient long-term strategies for water conservation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A final state interaction model for K and eta decay into three pions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angus, A.G.

1973-07-01

The Khuri-Treiman model is adapted in a relativistic formalism with the electromagnetic mass differences of the pions in the final state taken into account to produce new predictions for the relative decay rates and the slope parameters of the four reactions K→3x and the two reactions eta→3x. The pion-pion interaction is investigated in terms of the N/D method and as well as the normal pure pole approximations for the N functions. The Khuri-Treiman equations are solved for the best solutions from both the pure pole and the mixed pole and cut models. (author)

An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios (Final Report, 2008)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, An Exploratory Study: Assessment of Modeled Dioxin Exposure in Ceramic Art Studios. This report investigates the potential dioxin exposure to artists/hobbyists who use ball clay to make pottery and related products. Derm...

Study of Modern Approach to Build the Functional Models of Managerial and Engineering Systems in Training Specialists for Space Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. V. Arhipova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The SM8 Chair at Bauman Moscow State Technological University (BMSTU trains specialists majoring not only in design and manufacture, but also in operation and maintenance of space ground-based infrastructure.The learning courses in design, production, and operation of components of the missile and space technology, give much prominence to modeling. The same attention should be given to the modeling of managerial and engineering systems, with which deal both an expert and a leadman. It is important to choose the modeling tools for managerial and engineering systems with which they are to work and to learn how to apply these tools.The study of modern approach to functional modeling of managerial and engineering systems is held in the format of business game in laboratory class. A structural analysis and design technique (IDEFØ is considered as the means of modeling.The article stresses the IDEFØ approach advantages, namely: comprehensible graphical language, applicability to all-types and all-levels-of-hierarchy managerial and engineering systems modeling, popularity, version control means, teamwork tools. Moreover, the IDEFØ allows us to illustrate such notions, as point of view, system bounders, structure, control, feedback as applied to the managerial and engineering systems.The article offers a modified procedure to create an IDEFØ model in the context of training session. It also suggests a step-by-step procedure of the instruction session to be held, as well as of student self-training to have study credits, and a procedure of the work defense (final test.The approach under consideration can be applied to other training courses. The article proves it giving information about positive experience of its application.

Foundations for Improvements to Passive Detection Systems - Final Report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Labov, S E; Pleasance, L; Sokkappa, P; Craig, W; Chapline, G; Frank, M; Gronberg, J; Jernigan, J G; Johnson, S; Kammeraad, J; Lange, D; Meyer, A; Nelson, K; Pohl, B; Wright, D; Wurtz, R

2004-01-01

This project explores the scientific foundation and approach for improving passive detection systems for plutonium and highly enriched uranium in real applications. Sources of gamma-ray radiation of interest were chosen to represent a range of national security threats, naturally occurring radioactive materials, industrial and medical radiation sources, and natural background radiation. The gamma-ray flux emerging from these sources, which include unclassified criticality experiment configurations as surrogates for nuclear weapons, were modeled in detail. The performance of several types of gamma-ray imaging systems using Compton scattering were modeled and compared. A mechanism was created to model the combine sources and background emissions and have the simulated radiation ''scene'' impinge on a model of a detector. These modeling tools are now being used in various projects to optimize detector performance and model detector sensitivity in complex measuring environments. This study also developed several automated algorithms for isotope identification from gamma-ray spectra and compared these to each other and to algorithms already in use. Verification testing indicates that these alternative isotope identification algorithms produced less false positive and false negative results than the ''GADRAS'' algorithms currently in use. In addition to these algorithms that used binned spectra, a new approach to isotope identification using ''event mode'' analysis was developed. Finally, a technique using muons to detect nuclear material was explored

A Constructive Neural-Network Approach to Modeling Psychological Development

Science.gov (United States)

Shultz, Thomas R.

2012-01-01

This article reviews a particular computational modeling approach to the study of psychological development--that of constructive neural networks. This approach is applied to a variety of developmental domains and issues, including Piagetian tasks, shift learning, language acquisition, number comparison, habituation of visual attention, concept…

Modular Modelling and Simulation Approach - Applied to Refrigeration Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Kresten Kjær; Stoustrup, Jakob

2008-01-01

This paper presents an approach to modelling and simulation of the thermal dynamics of a refrigeration system, specifically a reefer container. A modular approach is used and the objective is to increase the speed and flexibility of the developed simulation environment. The refrigeration system...

The hadronic final state in the deep inelastic electron-proton scattering. A comparison between the ZEUS data measured 1992 and theoretical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, J.L.

1993-12-01

The hadronic final state in deep inelastic e - P collisions has been studied with the 1992 data from the ZEUS detector at HERA. The hadronic final state is described by event topology variables like thrust and sphericity and also by variables like multiplicity and transverse momentum. These quantities require the reconstruction of the particle four moments which are calculated from calorimeter cell clusters (condensates). A detailed Monte-Carlo comparison between final state particles and condensates is presented. ZEUS data and model predictions are compared in the γ * P system. Good agreement between data and models is found in the x-Feynman and transverse momentum spectra and in the seagull plot. Mean thrust and sphericity are measured as functions of the invariant mass W of the hadronic final state. They significantly deviate from the model predictions, as do the mean multiplicities, which exceed the model predictions by about 1 unit. (orig.)

Comparison of two novel approaches to model fibre reinforced concrete

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Radtke, F.K.F.; Simone, A.; Sluys, L.J.

2009-01-01

We present two approaches to model fibre reinforced concrete. In both approaches, discrete fibre distributions and the behaviour of the fibre-matrix interface are explicitly considered. One approach employs the reaction forces from fibre to matrix while the other is based on the partition of unity

Merits of a Scenario Approach in Dredge Plume Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Claus; Chu, Amy Ling Chu; Hjelmager Jensen, Jacob

2011-01-01

Dredge plume modelling is a key tool for quantification of potential impacts to inform the EIA process. There are, however, significant uncertainties associated with the modelling at the EIA stage when both dredging methodology and schedule are likely to be a guess at best as the dredging...... contractor would rarely have been appointed. Simulation of a few variations of an assumed full dredge period programme will generally not provide a good representation of the overall environmental risks associated with the programme. An alternative dredge plume modelling strategy that attempts to encapsulate...... uncertainties associated with preliminary dredging programmes by using a scenario-based modelling approach is presented. The approach establishes a set of representative and conservative scenarios for key factors controlling the spill and plume dispersion and simulates all combinations of e.g. dredge, climatic...

An approach to multiscale modelling with graph grammars.

Science.gov (United States)

Ong, Yongzhi; Streit, Katarína; Henke, Michael; Kurth, Winfried

2014-09-01

Functional-structural plant models (FSPMs) simulate biological processes at different spatial scales. Methods exist for multiscale data representation and modification, but the advantages of using multiple scales in the dynamic aspects of FSPMs remain unclear. Results from multiscale models in various other areas of science that share fundamental modelling issues with FSPMs suggest that potential advantages do exist, and this study therefore aims to introduce an approach to multiscale modelling in FSPMs. A three-part graph data structure and grammar is revisited, and presented with a conceptual framework for multiscale modelling. The framework is used for identifying roles, categorizing and describing scale-to-scale interactions, thus allowing alternative approaches to model development as opposed to correlation-based modelling at a single scale. Reverse information flow (from macro- to micro-scale) is catered for in the framework. The methods are implemented within the programming language XL. Three example models are implemented using the proposed multiscale graph model and framework. The first illustrates the fundamental usage of the graph data structure and grammar, the second uses probabilistic modelling for organs at the fine scale in order to derive crown growth, and the third combines multiscale plant topology with ozone trends and metabolic network simulations in order to model juvenile beech stands under exposure to a toxic trace gas. The graph data structure supports data representation and grammar operations at multiple scales. The results demonstrate that multiscale modelling is a viable method in FSPM and an alternative to correlation-based modelling. Advantages and disadvantages of multiscale modelling are illustrated by comparisons with single-scale implementations, leading to motivations for further research in sensitivity analysis and run-time efficiency for these models.

Final Report for Award #DE-SC3956 Separating Algorithm and Implementation via programming Model Injection (SAIMI)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strout, Michelle [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

2015-08-15

Programming parallel machines is fraught with difficulties: the obfuscation of algorithms due to implementation details such as communication and synchronization, the need for transparency between language constructs and performance, the difficulty of performing program analysis to enable automatic parallelization techniques, and the existence of important "dusty deck" codes. The SAIMI project developed abstractions that enable the orthogonal specification of algorithms and implementation details within the context of existing DOE applications. The main idea is to enable the injection of small programming models such as expressions involving transcendental functions, polyhedral iteration spaces with sparse constraints, and task graphs into full programs through the use of pragmas. These smaller, more restricted programming models enable orthogonal specification of many implementation details such as how to map the computation on to parallel processors, how to schedule the computation, and how to allocation storage for the computation. At the same time, these small programming models enable the expression of the most computationally intense and communication heavy portions in many scientific simulations. The ability to orthogonally manipulate the implementation for such computations will significantly ease performance programming efforts and expose transformation possibilities and parameter to automated approaches such as autotuning. At Colorado State University, the SAIMI project was supported through DOE grant DE-SC3956 from April 2010 through August 2015. The SAIMI project has contributed a number of important results to programming abstractions that enable the orthogonal specification of implementation details in scientific codes. This final report summarizes the research that was funded by the SAIMI project.

A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Desai, H.K.; Christian, R.A.; Banerjee, J.; Patra, A.K.

2013-01-01

Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and 3 H concentration at discharge point. The Output was 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. -- Highlights: • Uncommon approach (Fuzzy Rule Base) of modelling radionuclide dispersion in Lake. • Predicts 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at a point of human exposure. • RMSE of fuzzy model is 1.95, which means, it has well imitated natural ecosystem

Data Analysis A Model Comparison Approach, Second Edition

CERN Document Server

Judd, Charles M; Ryan, Carey S

2008-01-01

This completely rewritten classic text features many new examples, insights and topics including mediational, categorical, and multilevel models. Substantially reorganized, this edition provides a briefer, more streamlined examination of data analysis. Noted for its model-comparison approach and unified framework based on the general linear model, the book provides readers with a greater understanding of a variety of statistical procedures. This consistent framework, including consistent vocabulary and notation, is used throughout to develop fewer but more powerful model building techniques. T

Validation of an employee satisfaction model: A structural equation model approach

OpenAIRE

Ophillia Ledimo; Nico Martins

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to validate an employee satisfaction model and to determine the relationships between the different dimensions of the concept, using the structural equation modelling approach (SEM). A cross-sectional quantitative survey design was used to collect data from a random sample of (n=759) permanent employees of a parastatal organisation. Data was collected using the Employee Satisfaction Survey (ESS) to measure employee satisfaction dimensions. Following the steps of ...

A Specific N=2 Supersymmetric Quantum Mechanical Model: Supervariable Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aradhya Shukla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available By exploiting the supersymmetric invariant restrictions on the chiral and antichiral supervariables, we derive the off-shell nilpotent symmetry transformations for a specific (0 + 1-dimensional N=2 supersymmetric quantum mechanical model which is considered on a (1, 2-dimensional supermanifold (parametrized by a bosonic variable t and a pair of Grassmannian variables (θ,θ¯. We also provide the geometrical meaning to the symmetry transformations. Finally, we show that this specific N=2 SUSY quantum mechanical model is a model for Hodge theory.

Developing scenarios to assess future landslide risks: a model-based approach applied to mountainous regions

Science.gov (United States)

Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas

2016-04-01

In the last century, European mountain landscapes have experienced significant transformations. Natural and anthropogenic changes, climate changes, touristic and industrial development, socio-economic interactions, and their implications in terms of LUCC (land use and land cover changes) have directly influenced the spatial organization and vulnerability of mountain landscapes. This study is conducted as part of the SAMCO project founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR). It aims at developing a methodological approach, combining various tools, modelling platforms and methods, to identify vulnerable regions to landslide hazards accounting for futures LUCC. It presents an integrated approach combining participative scenarios and a LULC changes simulation models to assess the combined effects of LUCC and climate change on landslide risks in the Cauterets valley (French Pyrenees Mountains) up to 2100. Through vulnerability and risk mapping, the objective is to gather information to support landscape planning and implement land use strategies with local stakeholders for risk management. Four contrasting scenarios are developed and exhibit contrasting trajectories of socio-economic development. Prospective scenarios are based on national and international socio-economic contexts relying on existing assessment reports. The methodological approach integrates knowledge from local stakeholders to refine each scenario during their construction and to reinforce their plausibility and relevance by accounting for local specificities, e.g. logging and pastoral activities, touristic development, urban planning, etc. A process-based model, the Forecasting Scenarios for Mountains (ForeSceM) model, developed on the Dinamica Ego modelling platform is used to spatially allocate futures LUCC for each prospective scenario. Concurrently, a spatial decision support tool, i.e. the SYLVACCESS model, is used to identify accessible areas for forestry in scenario projecting logging

Data and Dynamics Driven Approaches for Modelling and Forecasting the Red Sea Chlorophyll

KAUST Repository

Dreano, Denis

2017-01-01

concentration and have practical applications for fisheries operation and harmful algae blooms monitoring. Modelling approaches can be divided between physics- driven (dynamical) approaches, and data-driven (statistical) approaches. Dynamical models are based

Oriented Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed Mohammad Moghimi

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Promoting productivity is one of the goals of usinginformation technology in organizations. The purpose of this research isexamining the impact of IT on organizational productivity andrecognizing its mechanisms based on process-oriented approach. For thisend, by reviewing the literature of the subject a number of impacts of ITon organizational processes were identified. Then, through interviewswith IT experts, seven main factors were selected and presented in aconceptual model. This model was tested through a questionnaire in 148industrial companies. Data analysis shows that impact of IT onproductivity can be included in the eight major categories: Increasing ofthe Automation, Tracking, Communication, Improvement, Flexibility,Analytic, Coordination and Monitoring in organizational processes.Finally, to improve the impact of information technology onorganizational productivity, some suggestions are presented.

High dimensions - a new approach to fermionic lattice models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vollhardt, D.

1991-01-01

The limit of high spatial dimensions d, which is well-established in the theory of classical and localized spin models, is shown to be a fruitful approach also to itinerant fermion systems, such as the Hubbard model and the periodic Anderson model. Many investigations which are probability difficult in finite dimensions, become tractable in d=∞. At the same time essential features of systems in d=3 and even lower dimensions are very well described by the results obtained in d=∞. A wide range of applications of this new concept (e.g., in perturbation theory, Fermi liquid theory, variational approaches, exact results, etc.) is discussed and the state-of-the-art is reviewed. (orig.)

R&D for computational cognitive and social models : foundations for model evaluation through verification and validation (final LDRD report).

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Slepoy, Alexander; Mitchell, Scott A.; Backus, George A.; McNamara, Laura A.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

2008-09-01

Sandia National Laboratories is investing in projects that aim to develop computational modeling and simulation applications that explore human cognitive and social phenomena. While some of these modeling and simulation projects are explicitly research oriented, others are intended to support or provide insight for people involved in high consequence decision-making. This raises the issue of how to evaluate computational modeling and simulation applications in both research and applied settings where human behavior is the focus of the model: when is a simulation 'good enough' for the goals its designers want to achieve? In this report, we discuss two years' worth of review and assessment of the ASC program's approach to computational model verification and validation, uncertainty quantification, and decision making. We present a framework that extends the principles of the ASC approach into the area of computational social and cognitive modeling and simulation. In doing so, we argue that the potential for evaluation is a function of how the modeling and simulation software will be used in a particular setting. In making this argument, we move from strict, engineering and physics oriented approaches to V&V to a broader project of model evaluation, which asserts that the systematic, rigorous, and transparent accumulation of evidence about a model's performance under conditions of uncertainty is a reasonable and necessary goal for model evaluation, regardless of discipline. How to achieve the accumulation of evidence in areas outside physics and engineering is a significant research challenge, but one that requires addressing as modeling and simulation tools move out of research laboratories and into the hands of decision makers. This report provides an assessment of our thinking on ASC Verification and Validation, and argues for further extending V&V research in the physical and engineering sciences toward a broader program of model

Bayesian Multi-Energy Computed Tomography reconstruction approaches based on decomposition models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Caifang

2013-01-01

Multi-Energy Computed Tomography (MECT) makes it possible to get multiple fractions of basis materials without segmentation. In medical application, one is the soft-tissue equivalent water fraction and the other is the hard-matter equivalent bone fraction. Practical MECT measurements are usually obtained with polychromatic X-ray beams. Existing reconstruction approaches based on linear forward models without counting the beam poly-chromaticity fail to estimate the correct decomposition fractions and result in Beam-Hardening Artifacts (BHA). The existing BHA correction approaches either need to refer to calibration measurements or suffer from the noise amplification caused by the negative-log pre-processing and the water and bone separation problem. To overcome these problems, statistical DECT reconstruction approaches based on non-linear forward models counting the beam poly-chromaticity show great potential for giving accurate fraction images.This work proposes a full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach which allows the reconstruction of high quality fraction images from ordinary polychromatic measurements. This approach is based on a Gaussian noise model with unknown variance assigned directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Referring to Bayesian inferences, the decomposition fractions and observation variance are estimated by using the joint Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation method. Subject to an adaptive prior model assigned to the variance, the joint estimation problem is then simplified into a single estimation problem. It transforms the joint MAP estimation problem into a minimization problem with a non-quadratic cost function. To solve it, the use of a monotone Conjugate Gradient (CG) algorithm with suboptimal descent steps is proposed.The performances of the proposed approach are analyzed with both simulated and experimental data. The results show that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to noise and materials. It is also

Post-closure biosphere assessment modelling: comparison of complex and more stylised approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Walke, Russell C; Kirchner, Gerald; Xu, Shulan; Dverstorp, Björn

2015-10-01

Geological disposal facilities are the preferred option for high-level radioactive waste, due to their potential to provide isolation from the surface environment (biosphere) on very long timescales. Assessments need to strike a balance between stylised models and more complex approaches that draw more extensively on site-specific information. This paper explores the relative merits of complex versus more stylised biosphere models in the context of a site-specific assessment. The more complex biosphere modelling approach was developed by the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co (SKB) for the Formark candidate site for a spent nuclear fuel repository in Sweden. SKB's approach is built on a landscape development model, whereby radionuclide releases to distinct hydrological basins/sub-catchments (termed 'objects') are represented as they evolve through land rise and climate change. Each of seventeen of these objects is represented with more than 80 site specific parameters, with about 22 that are time-dependent and result in over 5000 input values per object. The more stylised biosphere models developed for this study represent releases to individual ecosystems without environmental change and include the most plausible transport processes. In the context of regulatory review of the landscape modelling approach adopted in the SR-Site assessment in Sweden, the more stylised representation has helped to build understanding in the more complex modelling approaches by providing bounding results, checking the reasonableness of the more complex modelling, highlighting uncertainties introduced through conceptual assumptions and helping to quantify the conservatisms involved. The more stylised biosphere models are also shown capable of reproducing the results of more complex approaches. A major recommendation is that biosphere assessments need to justify the degree of complexity in modelling approaches as well as simplifying and conservative assumptions. In light of

Synthesis of industrial applications of local approach to fracture models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eripret, C.

1993-03-01

This report gathers different applications of local approach to fracture models to various industrial configurations, such as nuclear pressure vessel steel, cast duplex stainless steels, or primary circuit welds such as bimetallic welds. As soon as models are developed on the basis of microstructural observations, damage mechanisms analyses, and fracture process, the local approach to fracture proves to solve problems where classical fracture mechanics concepts fail. Therefore, local approach appears to be a powerful tool, which completes the standard fracture criteria used in nuclear industry by exhibiting where and why those classical concepts become unvalid. (author). 1 tab., 18 figs., 25 refs

A review of single-sample-based models and other approaches for radiocarbon dating of dissolved inorganic carbon in groundwater

Science.gov (United States)

Han, L. F; Plummer, Niel

2016-01-01

Numerous methods have been proposed to estimate the pre-nuclear-detonation 14C content of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) recharged to groundwater that has been corrected/adjusted for geochemical processes in the absence of radioactive decay (14C0) - a quantity that is essential for estimation of radiocarbon age of DIC in groundwater. The models/approaches most commonly used are grouped as follows: (1) single-sample-based models, (2) a statistical approach based on the observed (curved) relationship between 14C and δ13C data for the aquifer, and (3) the geochemical mass-balance approach that constructs adjustment models accounting for all the geochemical reactions known to occur along a groundwater flow path. This review discusses first the geochemical processes behind each of the single-sample-based models, followed by discussions of the statistical approach and the geochemical mass-balance approach. Finally, the applications, advantages and limitations of the three groups of models/approaches are discussed.The single-sample-based models constitute the prevailing use of 14C data in hydrogeology and hydrological studies. This is in part because the models are applied to an individual water sample to estimate the 14C age, therefore the measurement data are easily available. These models have been shown to provide realistic radiocarbon ages in many studies. However, they usually are limited to simple carbonate aquifers and selection of model may have significant effects on 14C0 often resulting in a wide range of estimates of 14C ages.Of the single-sample-based models, four are recommended for the estimation of 14C0 of DIC in groundwater: Pearson's model, (Ingerson and Pearson, 1964; Pearson and White, 1967), Han & Plummer's model (Han and Plummer, 2013), the IAEA model (Gonfiantini, 1972; Salem et al., 1980), and Oeschger's model (Geyh, 2000). These four models include all processes considered in single-sample-based models, and can be used in different ranges of

CFD Modeling of Wall Steam Condensation: Two-Phase Flow Approach versus Homogeneous Flow Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mimouni, S.; Mechitoua, N.; Foissac, A.; Hassanaly, M.; Ouraou, M.

2011-01-01

The present work is focused on the condensation heat transfer that plays a dominant role in many accident scenarios postulated to occur in the containment of nuclear reactors. The study compares a general multiphase approach implemented in NEPTUNE C FD with a homogeneous model, of widespread use for engineering studies, implemented in Code S aturne. The model implemented in NEPTUNE C FD assumes that liquid droplets form along the wall within nucleation sites. Vapor condensation on droplets makes them grow. Once the droplet diameter reaches a critical value, gravitational forces compensate surface tension force and then droplets slide over the wall and form a liquid film. This approach allows taking into account simultaneously the mechanical drift between the droplet and the gas, the heat and mass transfer on droplets in the core of the flow and the condensation/evaporation phenomena on the walls. As concern the homogeneous approach, the motion of the liquid film due to the gravitational forces is neglected, as well as the volume occupied by the liquid. Both condensation models and compressible procedures are validated and compared to experimental data provided by the TOSQAN ISP47 experiment (IRSN Saclay). Computational results compare favorably with experimental data, particularly for the Helium and steam volume fractions.

Hadron final states in deep inelastic processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bjorken, J.D.

1976-05-01

Lectures are presented dealing mainly with the description and discussion of hadron final states in electroproduction, colliding beams, and neutrino reactions from the point of view of the simple parton model. Also the space-time evolution of final states in the parton model is considered. It is found that the picture of space-time evolution of hadron final states in deep inelastic processes isn't totally trivial and that it can be made consistent with the hypotheses of the parton model. 39 references

Application of declarative modeling approaches for external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anoba, R.C.

2005-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessments (PSAs) are increasingly being used as a tool for supporting the acceptability of design, procurement, construction, operation, and maintenance activities at Nuclear Power Plants. Since the issuance of Generic Letter 88-20 and subsequent IPE/IPEEE assessments, the NRC has issued several Regulatory Guides such as RG 1.174 to describe the use of PSA in risk-informed regulation activities. Most PSA have the capability to address internal events including internal floods. As the more demands are being placed for using the PSA to support risk-informed applications, there has been a growing need to integrate other eternal events (Seismic, Fire, etc.) into the logic models. Most external events involve spatial dependencies and usually impact the logic models at the component level. Therefore, manual insertion of external events impacts into a complex integrated fault tree model may be too cumbersome for routine uses of the PSA. Within the past year, a declarative modeling approach has been developed to automate the injection of external events into the PSA. The intent of this paper is to introduce the concept of declarative modeling in the context of external event applications. A declarative modeling approach involves the definition of rules for injection of external event impacts into the fault tree logic. A software tool such as the EPRI's XInit program can be used to interpret the pre-defined rules and automatically inject external event elements into the PSA. The injection process can easily be repeated, as required, to address plant changes, sensitivity issues, changes in boundary conditions, etc. External event elements may include fire initiating events, seismic initiating events, seismic fragilities, fire-induced hot short events, special human failure events, etc. This approach has been applied at a number of US nuclear power plants including a nuclear power plant in Romania. (authors)

A fire model with distinct crop, pasture, and non-agricultural burning: use of new data and a model-fitting algorithm for FINAL.1

Science.gov (United States)

Rabin, Sam S.; Ward, Daniel S.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Magi, Brian I.; Shevliakova, Elena; Pacala, Stephen W.

2018-03-01

This study describes and evaluates the Fire Including Natural & Agricultural Lands model (FINAL) which, for the first time, explicitly simulates cropland and pasture management fires separately from non-agricultural fires. The non-agricultural fire module uses empirical relationships to simulate burned area in a quasi-mechanistic framework, similar to past fire modeling efforts, but with a novel optimization method that improves the fidelity of simulated fire patterns to new observational estimates of non-agricultural burning. The agricultural fire components are forced with estimates of cropland and pasture fire seasonality and frequency derived from observational land cover and satellite fire datasets. FINAL accurately simulates the amount, distribution, and seasonal timing of burned cropland and pasture over 2001-2009 (global totals: 0.434×106 and 2.02×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 0.454×106 and 2.04×106 km2 yr-1 observed), but carbon emissions for cropland and pasture fire are overestimated (global totals: 0.295 and 0.706 PgC yr-1 modeled, 0.194 and 0.538 PgC yr-1 observed). The non-agricultural fire module underestimates global burned area (1.91×106 km2 yr-1 modeled, 2.44×106 km2 yr-1 observed) and carbon emissions (1.14 PgC yr-1 modeled, 1.84 PgC yr-1 observed). The spatial pattern of total burned area and carbon emissions is generally well reproduced across much of sub-Saharan Africa, Brazil, Central Asia, and Australia, whereas the boreal zone sees underestimates. FINAL represents an important step in the development of global fire models, and offers a strategy for fire models to consider human-driven fire regimes on cultivated lands. At the regional scale, simulations would benefit from refinements in the parameterizations and improved optimization datasets. We include an in-depth discussion of the lessons learned from using the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm in an interactive optimization for a dynamic global vegetation model.

CFD approach to modelling, hydrodynamic analysis and motion characteristics of a laboratory underwater glider with experimental results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yogang Singh

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Underwater gliders are buoyancy propelled vehicle which make use of buoyancy for vertical movement and wings to propel the glider in forward direction. Autonomous underwater gliders are a patented technology and are manufactured and marketed by corporations. In this study, we validate the experimental lift and drag characteristics of a glider from the literature using Computational fluid dynamics (CFD approach. This approach is then used for the assessment of the steady state characteristics of a laboratory glider designed at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT Madras. Flow behaviour and lift and drag force distribution at different angles of attack are studied for Reynolds numbers varying from 105 to 106 for NACA0012 wing configurations. The state variables of the glider are the velocity, gliding angle and angle of attack which are simulated by making use of the hydrodynamic drag and lift coefficients obtained from CFD. The effect of the variable buoyancy is examined in terms of the gliding angle, velocity and angle of attack. Laboratory model of glider is developed from the final design asserted by CFD. This model is used for determination of static and dynamic properties of an underwater glider which were validated against an equivalent CAD model and simulation results obtained from equations of motion of glider in vertical plane respectively. In the literature, only empirical approach has been adopted to estimate the hydrodynamic coefficients of the AUG that are required for its trajectory simulation. In this work, a CFD approach has been proposed to estimate the hydrodynamic coefficients and validated with experimental data. A two-mass variable buoyancy engine has been designed and implemented. The equations of motion for this two-mass engine have been obtained by modifying the single mass version of the equations described in the literature. The objectives of the present study are to understand the glider dynamics adopting a CFD approach

BioModels: expanding horizons to include more modelling approaches and formats.

Science.gov (United States)

Glont, Mihai; Nguyen, Tung V N; Graesslin, Martin; Hälke, Robert; Ali, Raza; Schramm, Jochen; Wimalaratne, Sarala M; Kothamachu, Varun B; Rodriguez, Nicolas; Swat, Maciej J; Eils, Jurgen; Eils, Roland; Laibe, Camille; Malik-Sheriff, Rahuman S; Chelliah, Vijayalakshmi; Le Novère, Nicolas; Hermjakob, Henning

2018-01-04

BioModels serves as a central repository of mathematical models representing biological processes. It offers a platform to make mathematical models easily shareable across the systems modelling community, thereby supporting model reuse. To facilitate hosting a broader range of model formats derived from diverse modelling approaches and tools, a new infrastructure for BioModels has been developed that is available at http://www.ebi.ac.uk/biomodels. This new system allows submitting and sharing of a wide range of models with improved support for formats other than SBML. It also offers a version-control backed environment in which authors and curators can work collaboratively to curate models. This article summarises the features available in the current system and discusses the potential benefit they offer to the users over the previous system. In summary, the new portal broadens the scope of models accepted in BioModels and supports collaborative model curation which is crucial for model reproducibility and sharing. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Emission of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) at a waterfall in a sewer: study of main factors affecting H2S emission and modeling approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Daniel; Hatrait, Laetitia; Gouello, Julien; Ponthieux, Arnaud; Parez, Vincent; Renner, Christophe

2017-11-01

Hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S) represents one of the main odorant gases emitted from sewer networks. A mathematical model can be a fast and low-cost tool for estimating its emission. This study investigates two approaches to modeling H 2 S gas transfer at a waterfall in a discharge manhole. The first approach is based on an adaptation of oxygen models for H 2 S emission at a waterfall and the second consists of a new model. An experimental set-up and a statistical data analysis allowed the main factors affecting H 2 S emission to be studied. A new model of the emission kinetics was developed using linear regression and taking into account H 2 S liquid concentration, waterfall height and fluid velocity at the outlet pipe of a rising main. Its prediction interval was estimated by the residual standard deviation (15.6%) up to a rate of 2.3 g H 2 S·h -1 . Finally, data coming from four sampling campaigns on sewer networks were used to perform simulations and compare predictions of all developed models.

Object-Oriented Approach to Modeling Units of Pneumatic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu. V. Kyurdzhiev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The article shows the relevance of the approaches to the object-oriented programming when modeling the pneumatic units (PU.Based on the analysis of the calculation schemes of aggregates pneumatic systems two basic objects, namely a cavity flow and a material point were highlighted.Basic interactions of objects are defined. Cavity-cavity interaction: ex-change of matter and energy with the flows of mass. Cavity-point interaction: force interaction, exchange of energy in the form of operation. Point-point in-teraction: force interaction, elastic interaction, inelastic interaction, and inter-vals of displacement.The authors have developed mathematical models of basic objects and interactions. Models and interaction of elements are implemented in the object-oriented programming.Mathematical models of elements of PU design scheme are implemented in derived from the base class. These classes implement the models of flow cavity, piston, diaphragm, short channel, diaphragm to be open by a given law, spring, bellows, elastic collision, inelastic collision, friction, PU stages with a limited movement, etc.A numerical integration of differential equations for the mathematical models of PU design scheme elements is based on the Runge-Kutta method of the fourth order. On request each class performs a tact of integration i.e. calcu-lation of the coefficient method.The paper presents an integration algorithm of the system of differential equations. All objects of the PU design scheme are placed in a unidirectional class list. Iterator loop cycle initiates the integration tact of all the objects in the list. One in four iteration makes a transition to the next step of integration. Calculation process stops when any object shows a shutdowns flag.The proposed approach was tested in the calculation of a number of PU designs. With regard to traditional approaches to modeling, the authors-proposed method features in easy enhancement, code reuse, high reliability

Modelling transport energy demand: A socio-technical approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anable, Jillian; Brand, Christian; Tran, Martino; Eyre, Nick

2012-01-01

Despite an emerging consensus that societal energy consumption and related emissions are not only influenced by technical efficiency but also by lifestyles and socio-cultural factors, few attempts have been made to operationalise these insights in models of energy demand. This paper addresses that gap by presenting a scenario exercise using an integrated suite of sectoral and whole systems models to explore potential energy pathways in the UK transport sector. Techno-economic driven scenarios are contrasted with one in which social change is strongly influenced by concerns about energy use, the environment and well-being. The ‘what if’ Lifestyle scenario reveals a future in which distance travelled by car is reduced by 74% by 2050 and final energy demand from transport is halved compared to the reference case. Despite the more rapid uptake of electric vehicles and the larger share of electricity in final energy demand, it shows a future where electricity decarbonisation could be delayed. The paper illustrates the key trade-off between the more aggressive pursuit of purely technological fixes and demand reduction in the transport sector and concludes there are strong arguments for pursuing both demand and supply side solutions in the pursuit of emissions reduction and energy security.

Mathematical Modeling in Mathematics Education: Basic Concepts and Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Erbas, Ayhan Kürsat; Kertil, Mahmut; Çetinkaya, Bülent; Çakiroglu, Erdinç; Alacaci, Cengiz; Bas, Sinem

2014-01-01

Mathematical modeling and its role in mathematics education have been receiving increasing attention in Turkey, as in many other countries. The growing body of literature on this topic reveals a variety of approaches to mathematical modeling and related concepts, along with differing perspectives on the use of mathematical modeling in teaching and…

Integrating UML, the Q-model and a Multi-Agent Approach in Process Specifications and Behavioural Models of Organisations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raul Savimaa

2005-08-01

Full Text Available Efficient estimation and representation of an organisation's behaviour requires specification of business processes and modelling of actors' behaviour. Therefore the existing classical approaches that concentrate only on planned processes are not suitable and an approach that integrates process specifications with behavioural models of actors should be used instead. The present research indicates that a suitable approach should be based on interactive computing. This paper examines the integration of UML diagrams for process specifications, the Q-model specifications for modelling timing criteria of existing and planned processes and a multi-agent approach for simulating non-deterministic behaviour of human actors in an organisation. The corresponding original methodology is introduced and some of its applications as case studies are reviewed.

Final Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stinis, Panos [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2016-08-07

This is the final report for the work conducted at the University of Minnesota (during the period 12/01/12-09/18/14) by PI Panos Stinis as part of the "Collaboratory on Mathematics for Mesoscopic Modeling of Materials" (CM4). CM4 is a multi-institution DOE-funded project whose aim is to conduct basic and applied research in the emerging field of mesoscopic modeling of materials.

Strategies for reactor safety: Preventing loss of coolant accidents. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydell, B.O.Y.

1997-12-01

This final report on the NKS/RAK-1.2 summarizes the main features of the PIFRAP PC-program and its intended implementation. Regardless of the preferred technical approach to LOCA frequency estimation, the analysis approach must include recognition of the following technical issues: a) Degradation and failure mechanisms potentially affecting piping systems within the reactor coolant pressure boundary (RCPB) and the potential consequences; b) In-service inspection practices and how they influence piping reliability; and c) The service experience with piping systems. The report consists of six sections and one appendix. A Nordic perspective on LOCA and nuclear safety is given. It includes summaries of results from research in material sciences and current regulatory philosophies regarding piping reliability. A summary of the LOCA concept is applied in Nordic PSA studies. It includes a discussion on deterministic and probabilistic views on LOCA. The R and D on piping reliability by SKI and the PIFRAP model is summarized. Next, Section 6 presents conclusion and recommendations. Finally, Appendix A contains a list of abbreviations and acronyms, together with a glossary of technical terms. (EG)

A rule-based approach to model checking of UML state machines

Science.gov (United States)

Grobelna, Iwona; Grobelny, Michał; Stefanowicz, Łukasz

2016-12-01

In the paper a new approach to formal verification of control process specification expressed by means of UML state machines in version 2.x is proposed. In contrast to other approaches from the literature, we use the abstract and universal rule-based logical model suitable both for model checking (using the nuXmv model checker), but also for logical synthesis in form of rapid prototyping. Hence, a prototype implementation in hardware description language VHDL can be obtained that fully reflects the primary, already formally verified specification in form of UML state machines. Presented approach allows to increase the assurance that implemented system meets the user-defined requirements.

Application of Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach in an economic production quantity model with partial trade credit policy under fuzzy environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pinki Majumder

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In this present study, a production inventory model with partial trade credit is formulated and solved in fuzzy environment via Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach. To capture the market, a supplier offers a trade credit period to its retailers. Due to this facility, retailer also offers a partial trade credit period to his/her customer to boost the demand of the item. In practical life situation, demands are generally dependent upon time. Constant demand of an item varies time to time. In this vague situation, demands are taken as time dependent, where its constant part is taken as Left Right - type fuzzy number. In this paper, Generalized Hukuhara derivative approach is used to solve the fuzzy inventory model. Four different cases are considered by using Generalized Hukuhara-(i differentiability and Generalized Hukuhara-(ii differentiability. The objective of this paper is to find out the optimal time so as the total inventory cost is minimum. Finally the model is solved by generalized reduced gradient method. The proposed model and technique are illustrated by numerical examples. Some sensitivity analyses both in tabular and graphical forms are presented and the effects of minimum cost with respect to various inventory parameters are discussed.

Bystander Approaches: Empowering Students to Model Ethical Sexual Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Annette; Fleming, Wm. Michael

2005-01-01

Sexual violence on college campuses is well documented. Prevention education has emerged as an alternative to victim-- and perpetrator--oriented approaches used in the past. One sexual violence prevention education approach focuses on educating and empowering the bystander to become a point of ethical intervention. In this model, bystanders to…

Review of the Space Mapping Approach to Engineering Optimization and Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bakr, M. H.; Bandler, J. W.; Madsen, Kaj

2000-01-01

We review the Space Mapping (SM) concept and its applications in engineering optimization and modeling. The aim of SM is to avoid computationally expensive calculations encountered in simulating an engineering system. The existence of less accurate but fast physically-based models is exploited. S......-based Modeling (SMM). These include Space Derivative Mapping (SDM), Generalized Space Mapping (GSM) and Space Mapping-based Neuromodeling (SMN). Finally, we address open points for research and future development....

Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Chia-Ming Chen

Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.

A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

Modelling of ductile and cleavage fracture by local approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samal, M.K.; Dutta, B.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2000-08-01

This report describes the modelling of ductile and cleavage fracture processes by local approach. It is now well known that the conventional fracture mechanics method based on single parameter criteria is not adequate to model the fracture processes. It is because of the existence of effect of size and geometry of flaw, loading type and rate on the fracture resistance behaviour of any structure. Hence, it is questionable to use same fracture resistance curves as determined from standard tests in the analysis of real life components because of existence of all the above effects. So, there is need to have a method in which the parameters used for the analysis will be true material properties, i.e. independent of geometry and size. One of the solutions to the above problem is the use of local approaches. These approaches have been extensively studied and applied to different materials (including SA33 Gr.6) in this report. Each method has been studied and reported in a separate section. This report has been divided into five sections. Section-I gives a brief review of the fundamentals of fracture process. Section-II deals with modelling of ductile fracture by locally uncoupled type of models. In this section, the critical cavity growth parameters of the different models have been determined for the primary heat transport (PHT) piping material of Indian pressurised heavy water reactor (PHWR). A comparative study has been done among different models. The dependency of the critical parameters on stress triaxiality factor has also been studied. It is observed that Rice and Tracey's model is the most suitable one. But, its parameters are not fully independent of triaxiality factor. For this purpose, a modification to Rice and Tracery's model is suggested in Section-III. Section-IV deals with modelling of ductile fracture process by locally coupled type of models. Section-V deals with the modelling of cleavage fracture process by Beremins model, which is based on Weibulls

Characterization of the radon source in North-Central Florida. Final report part 1 -- Final project report; Final report part 2 -- Technical report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This report contains two separate parts: Characterization of the Radon Source in North-Central Florida (final report part 1 -- final project report); and Characterization of the Radon Source in North-Central Florida (technical report). The objectives were to characterize the radon 222 source in a region having a demonstrated elevated indoor radon potential and having geology, lithology, and climate that are different from those in other regions of the U.S. where radon is being studied. Radon availability and transport in this region were described. Approaches for predicting the radon potential of lands in this region were developed

Repetitive Identification of Structural Systems Using a Nonlinear Model Parameter Refinement Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeng-Wen Lin

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.

Towards a Semantic E-Learning Theory by Using a Modelling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Yli-Luoma, Pertti V. J.; Naeve, Ambjorn

2006-01-01

In the present study, a semantic perspective on e-learning theory is advanced and a modelling approach is used. This modelling approach towards the new learning theory is based on the four SECI phases of knowledge conversion: Socialisation, Externalisation, Combination and Internalisation, introduced by Nonaka in 1994, and involving two levels of…

Fuzzy model-based servo and model following control for nonlinear systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ohtake, Hiroshi; Tanaka, Kazuo; Wang, Hua O

2009-12-01

This correspondence presents servo and nonlinear model following controls for a class of nonlinear systems using the Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model-based control approach. First, the construction method of the augmented fuzzy system for continuous-time nonlinear systems is proposed by differentiating the original nonlinear system. Second, the dynamic fuzzy servo controller and the dynamic fuzzy model following controller, which can make outputs of the nonlinear system converge to target points and to outputs of the reference system, respectively, are introduced. Finally, the servo and model following controller design conditions are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities. Design examples illustrate the utility of this approach.

Final technical report for DE-SC00012633 AToM (Advanced Tokamak Modeling)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holland, Christopher [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States); Orlov, Dmitri [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States); Izzo, Valerie [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)

2018-02-05

This final report for the AToM project documents contributions from University of California, San Diego researchers over the period of 9/1/2014 – 8/31/2017. The primary focus of these efforts was on performing validation studies of core tokamak transport models using the OMFIT framework, including development of OMFIT workflow scripts. Additional work was performed to develop tools for use of the nonlinear magnetohydrodynamics code NIMROD in OMFIT, and its use in the study of runaway electron dynamics in tokamak disruptions.

Mathematical models for therapeutic approaches to control HIV disease transmission

CERN Document Server

Roy, Priti Kumar

2015-01-01

The book discusses different therapeutic approaches based on different mathematical models to control the HIV/AIDS disease transmission. It uses clinical data, collected from different cited sources, to formulate the deterministic as well as stochastic mathematical models of HIV/AIDS. It provides complementary approaches, from deterministic and stochastic points of view, to optimal control strategy with perfect drug adherence and also tries to seek viewpoints of the same issue from different angles with various mathematical models to computer simulations. The book presents essential methods and techniques for students who are interested in designing epidemiological models on HIV/AIDS. It also guides research scientists, working in the periphery of mathematical modeling, and helps them to explore a hypothetical method by examining its consequences in the form of a mathematical modelling and making some scientific predictions. The model equations, mathematical analysis and several numerical simulations that are...

EXPERIMENTS AND COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF PULVERIZED-COAL IGNITION; FINAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samuel Owusu-Ofori; John C. Chen

1999-01-01

Under typical conditions of pulverized-coal combustion, which is characterized by fine particles heated at very high rates, there is currently a lack of certainty regarding the ignition mechanism of bituminous and lower rank coals as well as the ignition rate of reaction. furthermore, there have been no previous studies aimed at examining these factors under various experimental conditions, such as particle size, oxygen concentration, and heating rate. Finally, there is a need to improve current mathematical models of ignition to realistically and accurately depict the particle-to-particle variations that exist within a coal sample. Such a model is needed to extract useful reaction parameters from ignition studies, and to interpret ignition data in a more meaningful way. The authors propose to examine fundamental aspects of coal ignition through (1) experiments to determine the ignition temperature of various coals by direct measurement, and (2) modeling of the ignition process to derive rate constants and to provide a more insightful interpretation of data from ignition experiments. The authors propose to use a novel laser-based ignition experiment to achieve their first objective. Laser-ignition experiments offer the distinct advantage of easy optical access to the particles because of the absence of a furnace or radiating walls, and thus permit direct observation and particle temperature measurement. The ignition temperature of different coals under various experimental conditions can therefore be easily determined by direct measurement using two-color pyrometry. The ignition rate-constants, when the ignition occurs heterogeneously, and the particle heating rates will both be determined from analyses based on these measurements

A security modeling approach for web-service-based business processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Meiko; Feja, Sven

2009-01-01

a transformation that automatically derives WS-SecurityPolicy-conformant security policies from the process model, which in conjunction with the generated WS-BPEL processes and WSDL documents provides the ability to deploy and run the complete security-enhanced process based on Web Service technology.......The rising need for security in SOA applications requires better support for management of non-functional properties in web-based business processes. Here, the model-driven approach may provide valuable benefits in terms of maintainability and deployment. Apart from modeling the pure functionality...... of a process, the consideration of security properties at the level of a process model is a promising approach. In this work-in-progress paper we present an extension to the ARIS SOA Architect that is capable of modeling security requirements as a separate security model view. Further we provide...

Query Language for Location-Based Services: A Model Checking Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hoareau, Christian; Satoh, Ichiro

We present a model checking approach to the rationale, implementation, and applications of a query language for location-based services. Such query mechanisms are necessary so that users, objects, and/or services can effectively benefit from the location-awareness of their surrounding environment. The underlying data model is founded on a symbolic model of space organized in a tree structure. Once extended to a semantic model for modal logic, we regard location query processing as a model checking problem, and thus define location queries as hybrid logicbased formulas. Our approach is unique to existing research because it explores the connection between location models and query processing in ubiquitous computing systems, relies on a sound theoretical basis, and provides modal logic-based query mechanisms for expressive searches over a decentralized data structure. A prototype implementation is also presented and will be discussed.

Merging Digital Surface Models Implementing Bayesian Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeq, H.; Drummond, J.; Li, Z.

2016-06-01

In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades). It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

MERGING DIGITAL SURFACE MODELS IMPLEMENTING BAYESIAN APPROACHES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Sadeq

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this research different DSMs from different sources have been merged. The merging is based on a probabilistic model using a Bayesian Approach. The implemented data have been sourced from very high resolution satellite imagery sensors (e.g. WorldView-1 and Pleiades. It is deemed preferable to use a Bayesian Approach when the data obtained from the sensors are limited and it is difficult to obtain many measurements or it would be very costly, thus the problem of the lack of data can be solved by introducing a priori estimations of data. To infer the prior data, it is assumed that the roofs of the buildings are specified as smooth, and for that purpose local entropy has been implemented. In addition to the a priori estimations, GNSS RTK measurements have been collected in the field which are used as check points to assess the quality of the DSMs and to validate the merging result. The model has been applied in the West-End of Glasgow containing different kinds of buildings, such as flat roofed and hipped roofed buildings. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been employed to validate the merged DSM. The validation results have shown that the model was successfully able to improve the quality of the DSMs and improving some characteristics such as the roof surfaces, which consequently led to better representations. In addition to that, the developed model has been compared with the well established Maximum Likelihood model and showed similar quantitative statistical results and better qualitative results. Although the proposed model has been applied on DSMs that were derived from satellite imagery, it can be applied to any other sourced DSMs.

Box-wing model approach for solar radiation pressure modelling in a multi-GNSS scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Tobias, Guillermo; Jesús García, Adrián

2016-04-01

The solar radiation pressure force is the largest orbital perturbation after the gravitational effects and the major error source affecting GNSS satellites. A wide range of approaches have been developed over the years for the modelling of this non gravitational effect as part of the orbit determination process. These approaches are commonly divided into empirical, semi-analytical and analytical, where their main difference relies on the amount of knowledge of a-priori physical information about the properties of the satellites (materials and geometry) and their attitude. It has been shown in the past that the pre-launch analytical models fail to achieve the desired accuracy mainly due to difficulties in the extrapolation of the in-orbit optical and thermic properties, the perturbations in the nominal attitude law and the aging of the satellite's surfaces, whereas empirical models' accuracies strongly depend on the amount of tracking data used for deriving the models, and whose performances are reduced as the area to mass ratio of the GNSS satellites increases, as it happens for the upcoming constellations such as BeiDou and Galileo. This paper proposes to use basic box-wing model for Galileo complemented with empirical parameters, based on the limited available information about the Galileo satellite's geometry. The satellite is modelled as a box, representing the satellite bus, and a wing representing the solar panel. The performance of the model will be assessed for GPS, GLONASS and Galileo constellations. The results of the proposed approach have been analyzed over a one year period. In order to assess the results two different SRP models have been used. Firstly, the proposed box-wing model and secondly, the new CODE empirical model, ECOM2. The orbit performances of both models are assessed using Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) measurements, together with the evaluation of the orbit prediction accuracy. This comparison shows the advantages and disadvantages of

Numerical modeling of hydrodynamics and sediment transport—an integrated approach

Science.gov (United States)

Gic-Grusza, Gabriela; Dudkowska, Aleksandra

2017-10-01

Point measurement-based estimation of bedload transport in the coastal zone is very difficult. The only way to assess the magnitude and direction of bedload transport in larger areas, particularly those characterized by complex bottom topography and hydrodynamics, is to use a holistic approach. This requires modeling of waves, currents, and the critical bed shear stress and bedload transport magnitude, with a due consideration to the realistic bathymetry and distribution of surface sediment types. Such a holistic approach is presented in this paper which describes modeling of bedload transport in the Gulf of Gdańsk. Extreme storm conditions defined based on 138-year NOAA data were assumed. The SWAN model (Booij et al. 1999) was used to define wind-wave fields, whereas wave-induced currents were calculated using the Kołodko and Gic-Grusza (2015) model, and the magnitude of bedload transport was estimated using the modified Meyer-Peter and Müller (1948) formula. The calculations were performed using a GIS model. The results obtained are innovative. The approach presented appears to be a valuable source of information on bedload transport in the coastal zone.

Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies (Final Report)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Uncertainty and Variability in Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Models: Key Issues and Case Studies. This report summarizes some of the recent progress in characterizing uncertainty and variability in physi...

A multiscale modeling approach for biomolecular systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bowling, Alan, E-mail: bowling@uta.edu; Haghshenas-Jaryani, Mahdi, E-mail: mahdi.haghshenasjaryani@mavs.uta.edu [The University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (United States)

2015-04-15

This paper presents a new multiscale molecular dynamic model for investigating the effects of external interactions, such as contact and impact, during stepping and docking of motor proteins and other biomolecular systems. The model retains the mass properties ensuring that the result satisfies Newton’s second law. This idea is presented using a simple particle model to facilitate discussion of the rigid body model; however, the particle model does provide insights into particle dynamics at the nanoscale. The resulting three-dimensional model predicts a significant decrease in the effect of the random forces associated with Brownian motion. This conclusion runs contrary to the widely accepted notion that the motor protein’s movements are primarily the result of thermal effects. This work focuses on the mechanical aspects of protein locomotion; the effect ATP hydrolysis is estimated as internal forces acting on the mechanical model. In addition, the proposed model can be numerically integrated in a reasonable amount of time. Herein, the differences between the motion predicted by the old and new modeling approaches are compared using a simplified model of myosin V.

An approach for activity-based DEVS model specification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alshareef, Abdurrahman; Sarjoughian, Hessam S.; Zarrin, Bahram

2016-01-01

Creation of DEVS models has been advanced through Model Driven Architecture and its frameworks. The overarching role of the frameworks has been to help develop model specifications in a disciplined fashion. Frameworks can provide intermediary layers between the higher level mathematical models...... and their corresponding software specifications from both structural and behavioral aspects. Unlike structural modeling, developing models to specify behavior of systems is known to be harder and more complex, particularly when operations with non-trivial control schemes are required. In this paper, we propose specifying...... activity-based behavior modeling of parallel DEVS atomic models. We consider UML activities and actions as fundamental units of behavior modeling, especially in the presence of recent advances in the UML 2.5 specifications. We describe in detail how to approach activity modeling with a set of elemental...

A durability model incorporating safe life methodology and damage tolerance approach to assess first inspection and maintenance period for structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiong, J.J.; Shenoi, R.A.

2009-01-01

This paper outlines a new durability model to assess the first inspection and maintenance period for structures. Practical scatter factor formulae are presented to determine the safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives from the results of a single full-scale test of a complete structure. New theoretical solutions are proposed to determine the s a -s m -N surfaces of fatigue crack initiation and propagation. Prediction techniques are then developed to establish the relationship equation between safe fatigue crack initiation and propagation lives with a specific reliability level using a two-stage fatigue damage cumulative rule. A new durability model incorporating safe life and damage tolerance design approaches is derived to assess the first inspection and maintenance period. Finally, the proposed models are applied to assess the first inspection and maintenance period of a fastening structure at the root of helicopter blade.

A network-based meta-population approach to model Rift Valley fever epidemics.

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Ling; Scott, H Morgan; Cohnstaedt, Lee W; Scoglio, Caterina

2012-08-07

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) has been expanding its geographical distribution with important implications for both human and animal health. The emergence of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in the Middle East, and its continuing presence in many areas of Africa, has negatively impacted both medical and veterinary infrastructures and human morbidity, mortality, and economic endpoints. Furthermore, worldwide attention should be directed towards the broader infection dynamics of RVFV, because suitable host, vector and environmental conditions for additional epidemics likely exist on other continents; including Asia, Europe and the Americas. We propose a new compartmentalized model of RVF and the related ordinary differential equations to assess disease spread in both time and space; with the latter driven as a function of contact networks. Humans and livestock hosts and two species of vector mosquitoes are included in the model. The model is based on weighted contact networks, where nodes of the networks represent geographical regions and the weights represent the level of contact between regional pairings for each set of species. The inclusion of human, animal, and vector movements among regions is new to RVF modeling. The movement of the infected individuals is not only treated as a possibility, but also an actuality that can be incorporated into the model. We have tested, calibrated, and evaluated the model using data from the recent 2010 RVF outbreak in South Africa as a case study; mapping the epidemic spread within and among three South African provinces. An extensive set of simulation results shows the potential of the proposed approach for accurately modeling the RVF spreading process in additional regions of the world. The benefits of the proposed model are twofold: not only can the model differentiate the maximum number of infected individuals among different provinces, but also it can reproduce the different starting times of the outbreak in multiple locations

Multirule Based Diagnostic Approach for the Fog Predictions Using WRF Modelling Tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swagata Payra

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The prediction of fog onset remains difficult despite the progress in numerical weather prediction. It is a complex process and requires adequate representation of the local perturbations in weather prediction models. It mainly depends upon microphysical and mesoscale processes that act within the boundary layer. This study utilizes a multirule based diagnostic (MRD approach using postprocessing of the model simulations for fog predictions. The empiricism involved in this approach is mainly to bridge the gap between mesoscale and microscale variables, which are related to mechanism of the fog formation. Fog occurrence is a common phenomenon during winter season over Delhi, India, with the passage of the western disturbances across northwestern part of the country accompanied with significant amount of moisture. This study implements the above cited approach for the prediction of occurrences of fog and its onset time over Delhi. For this purpose, a high resolution weather research and forecasting (WRF model is used for fog simulations. The study involves depiction of model validation and postprocessing of the model simulations for MRD approach and its subsequent application to fog predictions. Through this approach model identified foggy and nonfoggy days successfully 94% of the time. Further, the onset of fog events is well captured within an accuracy of 30–90 minutes. This study demonstrates that the multirule based postprocessing approach is a useful and highly promising tool in improving the fog predictions.

A Composite Modelling Approach to Decision Support by the Use of the CBA-DK Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2007-01-01

This paper presents a decision support system for assessment of transport infrastructure projects. The composite modelling approach, COSIMA, combines a cost-benefit analysis by use of the CBA-DK model with multi-criteria analysis applying the AHP and SMARTER techniques. The modelling uncertaintie...

A Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and prediction using a computationally intensive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higdon, Dave; McDonnell, Jordan D; Schunck, Nicolas; Sarich, Jason; Wild, Stefan M

2015-01-01

Bayesian methods have been successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model η(θ), where θ denotes the uncertain, best input setting. Hence the statistical model is of the form y=η(θ)+ϵ, where ϵ accounts for measurement, and possibly other, error sources. When nonlinearity is present in η(⋅), the resulting posterior distribution for the unknown parameters in the Bayesian formulation is typically complex and nonstandard, requiring computationally demanding computational approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to produce multivariate draws from the posterior. Although generally applicable, MCMC requires thousands (or even millions) of evaluations of the physics model η(⋅). This requirement is problematic if the model takes hours or days to evaluate. To overcome this computational bottleneck, we present an approach adapted from Bayesian model calibration. This approach combines output from an ensemble of computational model runs with physical measurements, within a statistical formulation, to carry out inference. A key component of this approach is a statistical response surface, or emulator, estimated from the ensemble of model runs. We demonstrate this approach with a case study in estimating parameters for a density functional theory model, using experimental mass/binding energy measurements from a collection of atomic nuclei. We also demonstrate how this approach produces uncertainties in predictions for recent mass measurements obtained at Argonne National Laboratory. (paper)

A Bayesian Approach to Model Selection in Hierarchical Mixtures-of-Experts Architectures.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanner, Martin A.; Peng, Fengchun; Jacobs, Robert A.

1997-03-01

There does not exist a statistical model that shows good performance on all tasks. Consequently, the model selection problem is unavoidable; investigators must decide which model is best at summarizing the data for each task of interest. This article presents an approach to the model selection problem in hierarchical mixtures-of-experts architectures. These architectures combine aspects of generalized linear models with those of finite mixture models in order to perform tasks via a recursive "divide-and-conquer" strategy. Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology is used to estimate the distribution of the architectures' parameters. One part of our approach to model selection attempts to estimate the worth of each component of an architecture so that relatively unused components can be pruned from the architecture's structure. A second part of this approach uses a Bayesian hypothesis testing procedure in order to differentiate inputs that carry useful information from nuisance inputs. Simulation results suggest that the approach presented here adheres to the dictum of Occam's razor; simple architectures that are adequate for summarizing the data are favored over more complex structures. Copyright 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All Rights Reserved.

A survey on computational intelligence approaches for predictive modeling in prostate cancer

OpenAIRE

Cosma, G; Brown, D; Archer, M; Khan, M; Pockley, AG

2017-01-01

Predictive modeling in medicine involves the development of computational models which are capable of analysing large amounts of data in order to predict healthcare outcomes for individual patients. Computational intelligence approaches are suitable when the data to be modelled are too complex forconventional statistical techniques to process quickly and eciently. These advanced approaches are based on mathematical models that have been especially developed for dealing with the uncertainty an...

A modelling approach for improved implementation of information technology in manufacturing systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Michael Holm; Langer, Gilad; Kirkby, Lars Phillip

2000-01-01

concept into practice. The paper demonstrates the use of the approach in a practical case, which involves modelling of the shop floor activities and control system at the aluminium parts production at a Danish manufacturer of state-of-the-art audio-video equipment and telephones.......The paper presents a modelling approach, which is based on the multiple view perspective of Soft Systems Methodology and an encapsulation of these perspectives into an object orientated model. The approach provides a structured procedure for putting theoretical abstractions of a new production...

Evaluation of various modelling approaches in flood routing simulation and flood area mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Papaioannou, George; Loukas, Athanasios; Vasiliades, Lampros; Aronica, Giuseppe

2016-04-01

An essential process of flood hazard analysis and mapping is the floodplain modelling. The selection of the modelling approach, especially, in complex riverine topographies such as urban and suburban areas, and ungauged watersheds may affect the accuracy of the outcomes in terms of flood depths and flood inundation area. In this study, a sensitivity analysis implemented using several hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches (1D, 2D, 1D/2D) and the effect of modelling approach on flood modelling and flood mapping was investigated. The digital terrain model (DTMs) used in this study was generated from Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) point cloud data. The modelling approaches included 1-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (1D), 2-dimensional hydraulic-hydrodynamic models (2D) and the coupled 1D/2D. The 1D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: HECRAS, MIKE11, LISFLOOD, XPSTORM. The 2D hydraulic-hydrodynamic models used were: MIKE21, MIKE21FM, HECRAS (2D), XPSTORM, LISFLOOD and FLO2d. The coupled 1D/2D models employed were: HECRAS(1D/2D), MIKE11/MIKE21(MIKE FLOOD platform), MIKE11/MIKE21 FM(MIKE FLOOD platform), XPSTORM(1D/2D). The validation process of flood extent achieved with the use of 2x2 contingency tables between simulated and observed flooded area for an extreme historical flash flood event. The skill score Critical Success Index was used in the validation process. The modelling approaches have also been evaluated for simulation time and requested computing power. The methodology has been implemented in a suburban ungauged watershed of Xerias river at Volos-Greece. The results of the analysis indicate the necessity of sensitivity analysis application with the use of different hydraulic-hydrodynamic modelling approaches especially for areas with complex terrain.

Setting conservation management thresholds using a novel participatory modeling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Addison, P F E; de Bie, K; Rumpff, L

2015-10-01

We devised a participatory modeling approach for setting management thresholds that show when management intervention is required to address undesirable ecosystem changes. This approach was designed to be used when management thresholds: must be set for environmental indicators in the face of multiple competing objectives; need to incorporate scientific understanding and value judgments; and will be set by participants with limited modeling experience. We applied our approach to a case study where management thresholds were set for a mat-forming brown alga, Hormosira banksii, in a protected area management context. Participants, including management staff and scientists, were involved in a workshop to test the approach, and set management thresholds to address the threat of trampling by visitors to an intertidal rocky reef. The approach involved trading off the environmental objective, to maintain the condition of intertidal reef communities, with social and economic objectives to ensure management intervention was cost-effective. Ecological scenarios, developed using scenario planning, were a key feature that provided the foundation for where to set management thresholds. The scenarios developed represented declines in percent cover of H. banksii that may occur under increased threatening processes. Participants defined 4 discrete management alternatives to address the threat of trampling and estimated the effect of these alternatives on the objectives under each ecological scenario. A weighted additive model was used to aggregate participants' consequence estimates. Model outputs (decision scores) clearly expressed uncertainty, which can be considered by decision makers and used to inform where to set management thresholds. This approach encourages a proactive form of conservation, where management thresholds and associated actions are defined a priori for ecological indicators, rather than reacting to unexpected ecosystem changes in the future. © 2015 The

A generalized approach for historical mock-up acquisition and data modelling: Towards historically enriched 3D city models

Science.gov (United States)

Hervy, B.; Billen, R.; Laroche, F.; Carré, C.; Servières, M.; Van Ruymbeke, M.; Tourre, V.; Delfosse, V.; Kerouanton, J.-L.

2012-10-01

Museums are filled with hidden secrets. One of those secrets lies behind historical mock-ups whose signification goes far behind a simple representation of a city. We face the challenge of designing, storing and showing knowledge related to these mock-ups in order to explain their historical value. Over the last few years, several mock-up digitalisation projects have been realised. Two of them, Nantes 1900 and Virtual Leodium, propose innovative approaches that present a lot of similarities. This paper presents a framework to go one step further by analysing their data modelling processes and extracting what could be a generalized approach to build a numerical mock-up and the knowledge database associated. Geometry modelling and knowledge modelling influence each other and are conducted in a parallel process. Our generalized approach describes a global overview of what can be a data modelling process. Our next goal is obviously to apply this global approach on other historical mock-up, but we also think about applying it to other 3D objects that need to embed semantic data, and approaching historically enriched 3D city models.

A review of function modeling: Approaches and applications

OpenAIRE

Erden, M.S.; Komoto, H.; Van Beek, T.J.; D'Amelio, V.; Echavarria, E.; Tomiyama, T.

2008-01-01

This work is aimed at establishing a common frame and understanding of function modeling (FM) for our ongoing research activities. A comparative review of the literature is performed to grasp the various FM approaches with their commonalities and differences. The relations of FM with the research fields of artificial intelligence, design theory, and maintenance are discussed. In this discussion the goals are to highlight the features of various classical approaches in relation to FM, to delin...

An interdisciplinary approach to modeling tritium transfer into the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galeriu, D; Melintescu, A.

2005-01-01

More robust radiological assessment models are required to support the safety case for the nuclear industry. Heavy water reactors, fuel processing plants, radiopharmaceutical factories, and the future fusion reactor, all have large tritium loads. While of low probability, large accidental tritium releases cannot be ignored. For Romania that uses CANDU600 for nuclear energy, tritium is the national radionuclide. Tritium enters directly into the life cycle in many physicochemical forms. Tritiated water (HTO) is leaked from most nuclear installations but is partially converted into organically bound tritium (OBT) through plant and animal metabolic processes. Hydrogen and carbon are elemental components of major nutrients and animal tissues and their radioisotopes must be modeled differently from those of most other radionuclides. Tritium transfer from atmosphere to plant and conversion into organically bound tritium strongly depend on plant characteristics, season, and weather conditions. In order to cope with this large variability and avoid expensive calibration experiments, we developed a model using knowledge of plant physiology, agrometeorology, soil sciences, hydrology, and climatology. The transfer of tritiated water to plant was modeled with resistance approach including sparse canopy. The canopy resistance was modeled using the Jarvis-Calvet approach modified in order to make direct use of the canopy photosynthesis rate. The crop growth model WOFOST was used for photosynthesis rate both for canopy resistance and formation of organically bound tritium. Using this formalism, the tritium transfer parameters were directly linked to processes and parameters known from agricultural sciences. Model predictions for tritium in wheat were close to a factor two, according to experimental data without any calibration. The model was also tested on rice and soybean and can be applied for various plants and environmental conditions. For sparse canopy, the model used coupled

Fracture in quasi-brittle materials: experimental and numerical approach for the determination of an incremental model with generalized variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morice, Erwan

2014-01-01

Fracture in quasi-brittle materials, such as ceramics or concrete, can be represented schematically by series of events of nucleation and coalescence of micro-cracks. Modeling this process is an important challenge for the reliability and life prediction of concrete structures, in particular the prediction of the permeability of damaged structures. A multi-scale approach is proposed. The global behavior is modeled within the fracture mechanics framework and the local behavior is modeled by the discrete element method. An approach was developed to condense the non linear behavior of the mortar. A model reduction technic is used to extract the relevant information from the discrete elements method. To do so, the velocity field is partitioned into mode I, II, linear and non-linear components, each component being characterized by an intensity factor and a fixed spatial distribution. The response of the material is hence condensed in the evolution of the intensity factors, used as non-local variables. A model was also proposed to predict the behavior of the crack for proportional and non-proportional mixed mode I+II loadings. An experimental campaign was finally conducted to characterize the fatigue and fracture behavior of mortar. The results show that fatigue crack growth can be of significant importance. The experimental velocity field determined, in the crack tip region, by DIC, were analyzed using the same technic as that used for analyzing the fields obtained by the discrete element method showing consistent results. (author)