WorldWideScience

Sample records for model year gasoline-fueled

  1. Modelling of heating and evaporation of gasoline fuel droplets: A comparative analysis of approximations

    KAUST Repository

    Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid

    2013-09-01

    Modelling of gasoline fuel droplet heating and evaporation processes is investigated using several approximations of this fuel. These are quasi-components used in the quasi-discrete model and the approximations of these quasi-components (Surrogate I (molar fractions: 83.0% n-C 6H14 + 15.6% n-C10H22 + 1.4% n-C14H30) and Surrogate II (molar fractions: 83.0% n-C7H16 + 15.6% n-C11H24 + 1.4% n-C15H32)). Also, we have used Surrogate A (molar fractions: 56% n-C7H16 + 28% iso-C8H 18 + 17% C7H8) and Surrogate B (molar fractions: 63% n-C7H16 + 20% iso-C8H 18 + 17% C7H8), originally introduced based on the closeness of the ignition delay of surrogates to that of gasoline fuel. The predictions of droplet radii and temperatures based on three quasi-components and their approximations (Surrogates I and II) are shown to be much more accurate than the predictions using Surrogates A and B. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling of Heating and Evaporation of FACE I Gasoline Fuel and its Surrogates

    KAUST Repository

    Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid

    2016-04-05

    The US Department of Energy has formulated different gasoline fuels called \\'\\'Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines (FACE)\\'\\' to standardize their compositions. FACE I is a low octane number gasoline fuel with research octane number (RON) of approximately 70. The detailed hydrocarbon analysis (DHA) of FACE I shows that it contains 33 components. This large number of components cannot be handled in fuel spray simulation where thousands of droplets are directly injected in combustion chamber. These droplets are to be heated, broken-up, collided and evaporated simultaneously. Heating and evaporation of single droplet FACE I fuel was investigated. The heating and evaporation model accounts for the effects of finite thermal conductivity, finite liquid diffusivity and recirculation inside the droplet, referred to as the effective thermal conductivity/effective diffusivity (ETC/ED) model. The temporal variations of the liquid mass fractions of the droplet components were used to characterize the evaporation process. Components with similar evaporation characteristics were merged together. A representative component was initially chosen based on the highest initial mass fraction. Three 6 components surrogates, Surrogate 1-3, that match evaporation characteristics of FACE I have been formulated without keeping same mass fractions of different hydrocarbon types. Another two surrogates (Surrogate 4 and 5) were considered keeping same hydrocarbon type concentrations. A distillation based surrogate that matches measured distillation profile was proposed. The calculated molar mass, hydrogen-to-carbon (H/C) ratio and RON of Surrogate 4 and distillation based one are close to those of FACE I.

  3. 40 CFR 600.206-86 - Calculation and use of fuel economy values for gasoline-fueled, diesel, and electric vehicle...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... values for gasoline-fueled, diesel, and electric vehicle configurations. 600.206-86 Section 600.206-86...-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy Regulations for 1977 and Later Model Year... values for gasoline-fueled, diesel, and electric vehicle configurations. (a) Fuel economy values...

  4. Cycle Engine Modelling Of Spark Ignition Engine Processes during Wide-Open Throttle (WOT) Engine Operation Running By Gasoline Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahim, M F Abdul; Rahman, M M; Bakar, R A

    2012-01-01

    One-dimensional engine model is developed to simulate spark ignition engine processes in a 4-stroke, 4 cylinders gasoline engine. Physically, the baseline engine is inline cylinder engine with 3-valves per cylinder. Currently, the engine's mixture is formed by external mixture formation using piston-type carburettor. The model of the engine is based on one-dimensional equation of the gas exchange process, isentropic compression and expansion, progressive engine combustion process, and accounting for the heat transfer and frictional losses as well as the effect of valves overlapping. The model is tested for 2000, 3000 and 4000 rpm of engine speed and validated using experimental engine data. Results showed that the engine is able to simulate engine's combustion process and produce reasonable prediction. However, by comparing with experimental data, major discrepancy is noticeable especially on the 2000 and 4000 rpm prediction. At low and high engine speed, simulated cylinder pressures tend to under predict the measured data. Whereas the cylinder temperatures always tend to over predict the measured data at all engine speed. The most accurate prediction is obtained at medium engine speed of 3000 rpm. Appropriate wall heat transfer setup is vital for more precise calculation of cylinder pressure and temperature. More heat loss to the wall can lower cylinder temperature. On the hand, more heat converted to the useful work mean an increase in cylinder pressure. Thus, instead of wall heat transfer setup, the Wiebe combustion parameters are needed to be carefully evaluated for better results.

  5. 40 CFR 600.206-93 - Calculation and use of fuel economy values for gasoline-fueled, diesel-fueled, electric, alcohol...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy Regulations for 1977 and Later Model Year Automobiles-Procedures... equivalent petroleum-based fuel economy value exists for an electric vehicle configuration, all values for... values for gasoline-fueled, diesel-fueled, electric, alcohol-fueled, natural gas-fueled, alcohol dual...

  6. 46 CFR 58.50-5 - Gasoline fuel tanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Gasoline fuel tanks. 58.50-5 Section 58.50-5 Shipping... AND RELATED SYSTEMS Independent Fuel Tanks § 58.50-5 Gasoline fuel tanks. (a) Construction—(1) Shape...) Installation. (1) Gasoline fuel tanks used for propulsion shall be located in water-tight compartments separate...

  7. 46 CFR 169.613 - Gasoline fuel systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Gasoline fuel systems. 169.613 Section 169.613 Shipping... Machinery and Electrical Fuel Systems § 169.613 Gasoline fuel systems. (a) Except as provided in paragraph (b) each gasoline fuel system must meet the requirements of § 56.50-70 of this chapter (b) Each...

  8. 46 CFR 56.50-70 - Gasoline fuel systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Gasoline fuel systems. 56.50-70 Section 56.50-70... APPURTENANCES Design Requirements Pertaining to Specific Systems § 56.50-70 Gasoline fuel systems. (a) Material.... Outlets in fuel lines for drawing gasoline for any purpose are prohibited. Valved openings in the bottom...

  9. Primary Reference Fuels (PRFs) as Surrogates for Low Sensitivity Gasoline Fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Bhavani Shankar, Vijai Shankar

    2016-04-05

    Primary Reference Fuels (PRFs) - binary mixtures of n-heptane and iso-octane based on Research Octane Number (RON) - are popular gasoline surrogates for modeling combustion in spark ignition engines. The use of these two component surrogates to represent real gasoline fuels for simulations of HCCI/PCCI engines needs further consideration, as the mode of combustion is very different in these engines (i.e. the combustion process is mainly controlled by the reactivity of the fuel). This study presents an experimental evaluation of PRF surrogates for four real gasoline fuels termed FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) A, C, I, and J in a motored CFR (Cooperative Fuels Research) engine. This approach enables the surrogate mixtures to be evaluated purely from a chemical kinetic perspective. The gasoline fuels considered in this study have very low sensitivities, S (RON-MON), and also exhibit two-stage ignition behavior. The first stage heat release, which is termed Low Temperature Heat Release (LTHR), controls the combustion phasing in this operating mode. As a result, the performance of the PRF surrogates was evaluated by its ability to mimic the low temperature chemical reactivity of the real gasoline fuels. This was achieved by comparing the LTHR from the engine pressure histories. The PRF surrogates were able to consistently reproduce the amount of LTHR, closely match the phasing of LTHR, and the compression ratio for the start of hot ignition of the real gasoline fuels. This suggests that the octane quality of a surrogate fuel is a good indicator of the fuel’s reactivity across low (LTC), negative temperature coefficient (NTC), and high temperature chemical (HTC) reactivity regimes.

  10. Ignition of alkane-rich FACE gasoline fuels and their surrogate mixtures

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani

    2015-01-01

    Petroleum derived gasoline is the most used transportation fuel for light-duty vehicles. In order to better understand gasoline combustion, this study investigated the ignition propensity of two alkane-rich FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasoline test fuels and their corresponding PRF (primary reference fuel) blend in fundamental combustion experiments. Shock tube ignition delay times were measured in two separate facilities at pressures of 10, 20, and 40 bar, temperatures from 715 to 1500 K, and two equivalence ratios. Rapid compression machine ignition delay times were measured for fuel/air mixtures at pressures of 20 and 40 bar, temperatures from 632 to 745 K, and two equivalence ratios. Detailed hydrocarbon analysis was also performed on the FACE gasoline fuels, and the results were used to formulate multi-component gasoline surrogate mixtures. Detailed chemical kinetic modeling results are presented herein to provide insights into the relevance of utilizing PRF and multi-component surrogate mixtures to reproduce the ignition behavior of the alkane-rich FACE gasoline fuels. The two FACE gasoline fuels and their corresponding PRF mixture displayed similar ignition behavior at intermediate and high temperatures, but differences were observed at low temperatures. These trends were mimicked by corresponding surrogate mixture models, except for the amount of heat release in the first stage of a two-stage ignition events, when observed. © 2014 The Combustion Institute.

  11. 40 CFR 86.340-79 - Gasoline-fueled engine dynamometer test run.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Gasoline-fueled engine dynamometer... Emission Regulations for New Gasoline-Fueled and Diesel-Fueled Heavy-Duty Engines; Gaseous Exhaust Test Procedures § 86.340-79 Gasoline-fueled engine dynamometer test run. (a) This section applies to gasoline...

  12. Understanding premixed flame chemistry of gasoline fuels by comparing quantities of interest

    KAUST Repository

    Selim, Hatem

    2016-07-23

    Gasoline fuels are complex mixtures that vary in composition depending on crude oil feedstocks and refining processes. Gasoline combustion in high-speed spark ignition engines is governed by flame propagation, so understanding fuel composition effects on premixed flame chemistry is important. In this study, the combustion chemistry of low-pressure, burner-stabilized, premixed flames of two gasoline fuels was investigated under stoichiometric conditions. Flame speciation was conducted using vacuum-ultraviolet synchrotron photoionization time-of-flight molecular beam mass spectroscopy. Stable end-products, intermediate hydrocarbons, and free radicals were detected and quantified. In addition, several isomeric species in the reaction pool were distinguished and quantified with the help of the highly tunable synchrotron radiation. A comparison between the products of both flames is presented and the major differences are highlighted. Premixed flame numerical simulations were conducted using surrogate fuel kinetic models for each flame. Furthermore, a new approach was developed to elucidate the main discrepancies between experimental measurements and the numerical predictions by comparing quantities of interest. © 2016.

  13. 40 CFR 86.335-79 - Gasoline-fueled engine test cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Gasoline-fueled engine test cycle. 86....335-79 Gasoline-fueled engine test cycle. (a) The following test sequence shall be followed in... operating the engine at the higher approved load setting during cycle 1 and at the lower approved load...

  14. A new formulation of physical surrogates of FACE A gasoline fuel based on heating and evaporation characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid; Sazhin, S.S.; Im, Hong G.

    2016-01-01

    The US Department of Energy has formulated various sets of gasoline fuels, called fuels for advanced combustion engines (FACE), which are consistent in composition and properties. The analysis of heating and evaporation of FACE A gasoline fuel (paraffin-rich) is studied by replacing the 66 components with 19 components to represent this fuel. The reduction in the number of components is based on merging components from the same chemical groups and having the same chemical formula, which have very close thermophysical properties; the components with the highest initial compositions are chosen to be the representative components. Modelling of heating and evaporation of FACE A gasoline fuel and various surrogates is carried out based on the effective thermal conductivity/effective diffusivity model (ETC/ED). The model takes into account the effect of finite liquid thermal conductivity, finite liquid mass diffusivity and recirculation inside the droplets due to their non-zero velocities relative to the ambient air. Four surrogates of FACE A found in the literature are used in the analysis. These surrogates include the five component surrogate chosen for its ability to match the ignition delay time of the FACE A gasoline fuel (Surr1), the primary reference fuel surrogate (PRF84) that matches the research octane number (RON) of FACE A, the one that matches hydrogen-to-carbon ratio (H/C), RON, density and distillation curve with FACE A (Surr2), and the one that matches the RON based on mole fraction linear blending (Surr3). It is shown that these surrogates cannot predict adequately the time evolution of surface temperatures and radii of FACE A droplets. New 'physical' surrogates with 8, 7 and 6 components (Surr4, Surr5, and Surr6) are introduced to match the evaporation characteristics of FACE A. It is found that Surr5 (7 components surrogate) can predict droplet lifetime and time evolution of surface temperature of a FACE A droplet with errors of up to 5% and 0

  15. A new formulation of physical surrogates of FACE A gasoline fuel based on heating and evaporation characteristics

    KAUST Repository

    Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid

    2016-02-19

    The US Department of Energy has formulated various sets of gasoline fuels, called fuels for advanced combustion engines (FACE), which are consistent in composition and properties. The analysis of heating and evaporation of FACE A gasoline fuel (paraffin-rich) is studied by replacing the 66 components with 19 components to represent this fuel. The reduction in the number of components is based on merging components from the same chemical groups and having the same chemical formula, which have very close thermophysical properties; the components with the highest initial compositions are chosen to be the representative components. Modelling of heating and evaporation of FACE A gasoline fuel and various surrogates is carried out based on the effective thermal conductivity/effective diffusivity model (ETC/ED). The model takes into account the effect of finite liquid thermal conductivity, finite liquid mass diffusivity and recirculation inside the droplets due to their non-zero velocities relative to the ambient air. Four surrogates of FACE A found in the literature are used in the analysis. These surrogates include the five component surrogate chosen for its ability to match the ignition delay time of the FACE A gasoline fuel (Surr1), the primary reference fuel surrogate (PRF84) that matches the research octane number (RON) of FACE A, the one that matches hydrogen-to-carbon ratio (H/C), RON, density and distillation curve with FACE A (Surr2), and the one that matches the RON based on mole fraction linear blending (Surr3). It is shown that these surrogates cannot predict adequately the time evolution of surface temperatures and radii of FACE A droplets. New \\'physical\\' surrogates with 8, 7 and 6 components (Surr4, Surr5, and Surr6) are introduced to match the evaporation characteristics of FACE A. It is found that Surr5 (7 components surrogate) can predict droplet lifetime and time evolution of surface temperature of a FACE A droplet with errors of up to 5% and 0

  16. Physical and chemical effects of low octane gasoline fuels on compression ignition combustion

    KAUST Repository

    Badra, Jihad; Viollet, Yoann; Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid; Im, Hong G.; Chang, Junseok

    2016-01-01

    Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) engines running on low octane gasoline fuels are considered an attractive alternative to traditional spark ignition engines. In this study, three fuels with different chemical and physical characteristics have

  17. Compositional Effects of Gasoline Fuels on Combustion, Performance and Emissions in Engine

    KAUST Repository

    Ahmed, Ahfaz; Waqas, Muhammad; Naser, Nimal; Singh, Eshan; Roberts, William L.; Chung, Suk-Ho; Sarathy, Mani

    2016-01-01

    to interpret differences in combustion behavior of gasoline fuels that show similar knock characteristics in a cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine, but may behave differently in direct injection spark ignition (DISI) engines or any other engine combustion

  18. Understanding premixed flame chemistry of gasoline fuels by comparing quantities of interest

    KAUST Repository

    Selim, Hatem; Mohamed, Samah; Dawood, Alaaeldin; Sarathy, Mani

    2016-01-01

    Gasoline fuels are complex mixtures that vary in composition depending on crude oil feedstocks and refining processes. Gasoline combustion in high-speed spark ignition engines is governed by flame propagation, so understanding fuel composition

  19. Dynamic behavior of gasoline fuel cell electric vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, William; Bowers, Brian J.; Garnier, Christophe; Boudjemaa, Fabien

    As we begin the 21st century, society is continuing efforts towards finding clean power sources and alternative forms of energy. In the automotive sector, reduction of pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions from the power plant is one of the main objectives of car manufacturers and innovative technologies are under active consideration to achieve this goal. One technology that has been proposed and vigorously pursued in the past decade is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell, an electrochemical device that reacts hydrogen with oxygen to produce water, electricity and heat. Since today there is no existing extensive hydrogen infrastructure and no commercially viable hydrogen storage technology for vehicles, there is a continuing debate as to how the hydrogen for these advanced vehicles will be supplied. In order to circumvent the above issues, power systems based on PEM fuel cells can employ an on-board fuel processor that has the ability to convert conventional fuels such as gasoline into hydrogen for the fuel cell. This option could thereby remove the fuel infrastructure and storage issues. However, for these fuel processor/fuel cell vehicles to be commercially successful, issues such as start time and transient response must be addressed. This paper discusses the role of transient response of the fuel processor power plant and how it relates to the battery sizing for a gasoline fuel cell vehicle. In addition, results of fuel processor testing from a current Renault/Nuvera Fuel Cells project are presented to show the progress in transient performance.

  20. Jet-stirred reactor oxidation of alkane-rich FACE gasoline fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Bingjie

    2016-06-23

    Understanding species evolution upon gasoline fuel oxidation can aid in mitigating harmful emissions and improving combustion efficiency. Experimentally measured speciation profiles are also important targets for surrogate fuel kinetic models. This work presents the low- and high-temperature oxidation of two alkane-rich FACE gasolines (A and C, Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) in a jet-stirred reactor at 10. bar and equivalence ratios from 0.5 to 2 by probe sampling combined with gas chromatography and Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectrometry analysis. Detailed speciation profiles as a function of temperature are presented and compared to understand the combustion chemistry of these two real fuels. Simulations were conducted using three surrogates (i.e., FGA2, FGC2, and FRF 84), which have similar physical and chemical properties as the two gasolines. The experimental results reveal that the reactivity and major product distributions of these two alkane-rich FACE fuels are very similar, indicating that they have similar global reactivity despite their different compositions. The simulation results using all the surrogates capture the two-stage oxidation behavior of the two FACE gasolines, but the extent of low temperature reactivity is over-predicted. The simulations were analyzed, with a focus on the n-heptane and n-butane sub-mechanisms, to help direct the future model development and surrogate fuel formulation strategies.

  1. Jet-stirred reactor oxidation of alkane-rich FACE gasoline fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Bingjie; Togbé , Casimir; Wang, Zhandong; Dagaut, Philippe; Sarathy, Mani

    2016-01-01

    Understanding species evolution upon gasoline fuel oxidation can aid in mitigating harmful emissions and improving combustion efficiency. Experimentally measured speciation profiles are also important targets for surrogate fuel kinetic models. This work presents the low- and high-temperature oxidation of two alkane-rich FACE gasolines (A and C, Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) in a jet-stirred reactor at 10. bar and equivalence ratios from 0.5 to 2 by probe sampling combined with gas chromatography and Fourier Transformed Infrared Spectrometry analysis. Detailed speciation profiles as a function of temperature are presented and compared to understand the combustion chemistry of these two real fuels. Simulations were conducted using three surrogates (i.e., FGA2, FGC2, and FRF 84), which have similar physical and chemical properties as the two gasolines. The experimental results reveal that the reactivity and major product distributions of these two alkane-rich FACE fuels are very similar, indicating that they have similar global reactivity despite their different compositions. The simulation results using all the surrogates capture the two-stage oxidation behavior of the two FACE gasolines, but the extent of low temperature reactivity is over-predicted. The simulations were analyzed, with a focus on the n-heptane and n-butane sub-mechanisms, to help direct the future model development and surrogate fuel formulation strategies.

  2. Oxidation of Alkane Rich Gasoline Fuels and their Surrogates in a Motored Engine

    KAUST Repository

    Shankar, Vijai S B

    2015-03-30

    The validation of surrogates formulated using a computational framework by Ahmed et al.[1]for two purely paraffinic gasoline fuels labelled FACE A and FACE C was undertaken in this study. The ability of these surrogate mixtures to be used in modelling LTC engines was accessed by comparison of their low temperature oxidation chemistry with that of the respective parent fuel as well as a PRF based on RON. This was done by testing the surrogate mixtures in a modified Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine running in Controlled Autoignition Mode (CAI) mode. The engine was run at a constant speed of 600 rpm at an equivalence ratio of 0.5 with the intake temperature at 150 °C and a pressure of 98 kPa. The low temperature reactivity of the fuels were studied by varying the compression ratio of the engine from the point were very only small low temperature heat release was observed to a point beyond which auto-ignition of the fuel/air mixture occurred. The apparent heat release rates of different fuels was calculated from the pressure histories using first law analysis and the CA 50 times of the low temperature heat release (LTHR) were compared. The surrogates reproduced the cool flame behavior of the parent fuels better than the PRF across all compression ratios.

  3. Oxidation of Alkane Rich Gasoline Fuels and their Surrogates in a Motored Engine

    KAUST Repository

    Shankar, Vijai S B; Al-Qurashi, Khalid; Ahmed, Ahfaz; Atef, Nour; Chung, Suk-Ho; Roberts, William L.; Sarathy, Mani

    2015-01-01

    The validation of surrogates formulated using a computational framework by Ahmed et al.[1]for two purely paraffinic gasoline fuels labelled FACE A and FACE C was undertaken in this study. The ability of these surrogate mixtures to be used in modelling LTC engines was accessed by comparison of their low temperature oxidation chemistry with that of the respective parent fuel as well as a PRF based on RON. This was done by testing the surrogate mixtures in a modified Cooperative Fuels Research (CFR) engine running in Controlled Autoignition Mode (CAI) mode. The engine was run at a constant speed of 600 rpm at an equivalence ratio of 0.5 with the intake temperature at 150 °C and a pressure of 98 kPa. The low temperature reactivity of the fuels were studied by varying the compression ratio of the engine from the point were very only small low temperature heat release was observed to a point beyond which auto-ignition of the fuel/air mixture occurred. The apparent heat release rates of different fuels was calculated from the pressure histories using first law analysis and the CA 50 times of the low temperature heat release (LTHR) were compared. The surrogates reproduced the cool flame behavior of the parent fuels better than the PRF across all compression ratios.

  4. Primary Reference Fuels (PRFs) as Surrogates for Low Sensitivity Gasoline Fuels

    KAUST Repository

    Bhavani Shankar, Vijai Shankar; Sajid, Muhammad Bilal; Al-Qurashi, Khalid; Atef, Nour; Al Khesho, Issam; Ahmed, Ahfaz; Chung, Suk-Ho; Roberts, William L.; Morganti, Kai; Sarathy, Mani

    2016-01-01

    This study presents an experimental evaluation of PRF surrogates for four real gasoline fuels termed FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) A, C, I, and J in a motored CFR (Cooperative Fuels Research) engine. This approach enables the surrogate mixtures to be evaluated purely from a chemical kinetic perspective. The gasoline fuels considered in this study have very low sensitivities, S (RON-MON), and also exhibit two-stage ignition behavior. The first stage heat release, which is termed Low Temperature Heat Release (LTHR), controls the combustion phasing in this operating mode. As a result, the performance of the PRF surrogates was evaluated by its ability to mimic the low temperature chemical reactivity of the real gasoline fuels. This was achieved by comparing the LTHR from the engine pressure histories. The PRF surrogates were able to consistently reproduce the amount of LTHR, closely match the phasing of LTHR, and the compression ratio for the start of hot ignition of the real gasoline fuels. This suggests that the octane quality of a surrogate fuel is a good indicator of the fuel’s reactivity across low (LTC), negative temperature coefficient (NTC), and high temperature chemical (HTC) reactivity regimes.

  5. Flame chemistry of alkane-rich gasoline fuels and a surrogate using photoionization mass spectrometry: I. Primary reference fuel

    KAUST Repository

    Selim, H.

    2015-03-30

    Improving the gasoline engines performance requires thorough understanding of their fundamental chemistry of combustion. Since the actual gasoline fuels are difficult to examine, due to the lack of knowledge about their exact composition as well as their numerous fuel components, the approach of using simpler gasoline fuels with limited number of components or using surrogate fuels has become more common. In this study, the combustion chemistry of laminar premixed flame of different gasoline fuels/surrogate has been examined. In this particular paper, the primary reference fuel, PRF84, has been examined at equivalence ratio of 1 and pressure of 20 Torr. The gas analysis was conducted using vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry.

  6. Flame chemistry of alkane-rich gasoline fuels and a surrogate using photoionization mass spectrometry: I. Primary reference fuel

    KAUST Repository

    Selim, H.; Lucassen, A.; Hansen, N.; Sarathy, Mani

    2015-01-01

    Improving the gasoline engines performance requires thorough understanding of their fundamental chemistry of combustion. Since the actual gasoline fuels are difficult to examine, due to the lack of knowledge about their exact composition as well as their numerous fuel components, the approach of using simpler gasoline fuels with limited number of components or using surrogate fuels has become more common. In this study, the combustion chemistry of laminar premixed flame of different gasoline fuels/surrogate has been examined. In this particular paper, the primary reference fuel, PRF84, has been examined at equivalence ratio of 1 and pressure of 20 Torr. The gas analysis was conducted using vacuum ultraviolet photoionization mass spectrometry.

  7. A study on emission characteristics of an EFI engine with ethanol blended gasoline fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Bang-Quan; Wang, Jian-Xin; Hao, Ji-Ming; Yan, Xiao-Guang; Xiao, Jian-Hua

    The effect of ethanol blended gasoline fuels on emissions and catalyst conversion efficiencies was investigated in a spark ignition engine with an electronic fuel injection (EFI) system. The addition of ethanol to gasoline fuel enhances the octane number of the blended fuels and changes distillation temperature. Ethanol can decrease engine-out regulated emissions. The fuel containing 30% ethanol by volume can drastically reduce engine-out total hydrocarbon emissions (THC) at operating conditions and engine-out THC, CO and NO x emissions at idle speed, but unburned ethanol and acetaldehyde emissions increase. Pt/Rh based three-way catalysts are effective in reducing acetaldehyde emissions, but the conversion of unburned ethanol is low. Tailpipe emissions of THC, CO and NO x have close relation to engine-out emissions, catalyst conversion efficiency, engine's speed and load, air/fuel equivalence ratio. Moreover, the blended fuels can decrease brake specific energy consumption.

  8. Compositional Effects of Gasoline Fuels on Combustion, Performance and Emissions in Engine

    KAUST Repository

    Ahmed, Ahfaz

    2016-10-17

    Commercial gasoline fuels are complex mixtures of numerous hydrocarbons. Their composition differs significantly owing to several factors, source of crude oil being one of them. Because of such inconsistency in composition, there are multiple gasoline fuel compositions with similar octane ratings. It is of interest to comparatively study such fuels with similar octane ratings and different composition, and thus dissimilar physical and chemical properties. Such an investigation is required to interpret differences in combustion behavior of gasoline fuels that show similar knock characteristics in a cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine, but may behave differently in direct injection spark ignition (DISI) engines or any other engine combustion modes. Two FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasolines, FACE F and FACE G with similar Research and Motor Octane Numbers but dissimilar physical properties were studied in a DISI engine under two sets of experimental conditions; the first set involved early fuel injection to allow sufficient time for fuel-air mixing hence permitting operation similar to homogenous DISI engines, while the second set consists of advance of spark timings to attain MBT (maximum brake torque) settings. These experimental conditions are repeated across different load points to observe the effect of increasing temperature and pressure on combustion and emission parameters. The differences in various engine-out parameters are discussed and interpreted in terms of physical and thermodynamic properties of the fuels.

  9. Performance and emissions analysis on using acetone–gasoline fuel blends in spark-ignition engine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf Elfasakhany

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, new blended fuels were formed by adding 3–10 vol. % of acetone into a regular gasoline. According to the best of the author's knowledge, it is the first time that the influence of acetone blends has been studied in a gasoline-fueled engine. The blended fuels were tested for their energy efficiencies and pollutant emissions using SI (spark-ignition engine with single-cylinder and 4-stroke. Experimental results showed that the AC3 (3 vol.% acetone + 97 vol.% gasoline blended fuel has an advantage over the neat gasoline in exhaust gases temperature, in-cylinder pressure, brake power, torque and volumetric efficiency by about 0.8%, 2.3%, 1.3%, 0.45% and 0.9%, respectively. As the acetone content increases in the blends, as the engine performance improved where the best performance obtained in this study at the blended fuel of AC10. In particular, exhaust gases temperature, in-cylinder pressure, brake power, torque and volumetric efficiency increase by about 5%, 10.5%, 5.2%, 2.1% and 3.2%, respectively, compared to neat gasoline. In addition, the use of acetone with gasoline fuel reduces exhaust emissions averagely by about 43% for carbon monoxide, 32% for carbon dioxide and 33% for the unburnt hydrocarbons. The enhanced engine performance and pollutant emissions are attributed to the higher oxygen content, slight leaning effect, lower knock tendency and high flame speeds of acetone, compared to the neat gasoline. Finally the mechanism of acetone combustion in gasoline-fueled engines is proposed in this work; two main pathways for acetone combustion are highlighted; furthermore, the CO, CO2 and UHC (unburnt hydrocarbons mechanisms of formation and oxidation are acknowledged. Such acetone mechanism is employed for further understanding acetone combustion in spark-ignition engines.

  10. Hot-wire air flow meter for gasoline fuel-injection system. Calculation of air mass in cylinder during transient condition; Gasoline funsha system yo no netsusenshiki kuki ryuryokei. Kato untenji no cylinder juten kukiryo no keisan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oyama, Y [Hitachi Car Engineering, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan); Nishimura, Y; Osuga, M; Yamauchi, T [Hitachi, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-10-01

    Air flow characteristics of hot-wire air flow meters for gasoline fuel-injection systems with supercharging and exhaust gas recycle during transient conditions were investigated to analyze a simple method for calculating air mass in cylinder. It was clarified that the air mass in cylinder could be calculated by compensating for the change of air mass in intake system by using aerodynamic models of intake system. 3 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Performance and emissions analysis on using acetone–gasoline fuel blends in spark-ignition engine

    OpenAIRE

    Ashraf Elfasakhany

    2016-01-01

    In this study, new blended fuels were formed by adding 3–10 vol. % of acetone into a regular gasoline. According to the best of the author's knowledge, it is the first time that the influence of acetone blends has been studied in a gasoline-fueled engine. The blended fuels were tested for their energy efficiencies and pollutant emissions using SI (spark-ignition) engine with single-cylinder and 4-stroke. Experimental results showed that the AC3 (3 vol.% acetone + 97 vol.% gasoline) blended fu...

  12. Hydrodeoxygenation of oxidized distilled bio-oil for the production of gasoline fuel type

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Yan; Guda, Vamshi Krishna; Hassan, El Barbary; Steele, Philip H.; Mitchell, Brian; Yu, Fei

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Oxidation had more influence on the yield of total hydrocarbons than distillation. • The highest total hydrocarbon yield was obtained from oxidized distilled bio-oil. • The 2nd-stage hydrocarbons were in the range of gasoline fuel boiling points. • The main products for upgrading of oxidized bio-oil were aliphatic hydrocarbons. • The main products for upgrading of non-oxidized bio-oil were aromatic hydrocarbons. - Abstract: Distilled and oxidized distilled bio-oils were subjected to 1st-stage mild hydrodeoxygenation and 2nd-stage full hydrodeoxygenation using nickel/silica–alumina catalyst as a means to enhance hydrocarbon yield. Raw bio-oil was treated for hydrodeoxygenation as a control to which to compare study treatments. Following two-stage hydrodeoxygenation, four types of hydrocarbons were mainly comprised of gasoline and had water contents, oxygen contents and total acid numbers of nearly zero and higher heating values of 44–45 MJ/kg. Total hydrocarbon yields for raw bio-oil, oxidized raw bio-oil, distilled bio-oil and oxidized distilled bio-oil were 11.6, 16.2, 12.9 and 20.5 wt.%, respectively. The results indicated that oxidation had the most influence on increasing the yield of gasoline fuel type followed by distillation. Gas chromatography/mass spectrometry characterization showed that 66.0–76.6% of aliphatic hydrocarbons and 19.5–31.6% of aromatic hydrocarbons were the main products for oxidized bio-oils while 35.5–38.7% of aliphatic hydrocarbons and 58.2–63.1% of aromatic hydrocarbons were the main products for non-oxidized bio-oils. Both aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons are important components for liquid transportation fuels and chemical products.

  13. Physical and chemical effects of low octane gasoline fuels on compression ignition combustion

    KAUST Repository

    Badra, Jihad

    2016-09-30

    Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) engines running on low octane gasoline fuels are considered an attractive alternative to traditional spark ignition engines. In this study, three fuels with different chemical and physical characteristics have been investigated in single cylinder engine running in GCI combustion mode at part-load conditions both experimentally and numerically. The studied fuels are: Saudi Aramco light naphtha (SALN) (Research octane number (RON) = 62 and final boiling point (FBP) = 91 °C), Haltermann straight run naphtha (HSRN) (RON = 60 and FBP = 140 °C) and a primary reference fuel (PRF65) (RON = 65 and FBP = 99 °C). Injection sweeps, where the start of injection (SOI) is changed between −60 and −11 CAD aTDC, have been performed for the three fuels. Full cycle computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations were executed using PRFs as chemical surrogates for the naphtha fuels. Physical surrogates based on the evaporation characteristics of the naphtha streams have been developed and their properties have been implemented in the engine simulations. It was found that the three fuels have similar combustion phasings and emissions at the conditions tested in this work with minor differences at SOI earlier than −30 CAD aTDC. These trends were successfully reproduced by the CFD calculations. The chemical and physical effects were further investigated numerically. It was found that the physical characteristics of the fuel significantly affect the combustion for injections earlier than −30 CAD aTDC because of the low evaporation rates of the fuel because of the higher boiling temperature of the fuel and the colder in-cylinder air during injection. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd

  14. Experimental investigation on SI engine using gasoline and a hybrid iso-butanol/gasoline fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elfasakhany, Ashraf

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • iso-Butanol–gasoline blends (iB) using up to 10 vol.% butanol were examined in SIE. • iB extensively decrease the greenhouse effect of SI engine. • iB without engine tuning led to a drop in engine performance at all speeds. • iB provide higher performance and lower CO and CO 2 emissions than n-butanol blends. • iB grant lower CO and UHC than gasoline at <2900 r/min, but overturn at >2900 r/min. - Abstract: Experimental investigation on pollutant emissions and performance of SI engine fueled with gasoline and iso-butanol–gasoline blends is carried out. Engine was operated at speed range of 2600–3400 r/min for each blend (3, 7 and 10 vol.% iso-butanol) and neat gasoline. Results declare that the CO and UHC emissions of neat gasoline are higher than those of the blended fuels for speeds less than or equal to 2900 r/min; however, for speeds higher than 2900 r/min, we have an opposite impact where the blended fuels produce higher level of CO and UHC emissions than the gasoline fuel. The CO 2 emission at using iso-butanol–gasoline blends is always lower than the neat gasoline at all speeds by up to 43%. The engine performance results demonstrate that using iso-butanol–gasoline blends in SI engine without any engine tuning lead to a drop in engine performance within all speed range. Without modifying the engine system, overall fuel combustion of iso-butanol–gasoline blends was quasi-complete. However, when engine system is optimized for blended fuels, iso-butanol has significant oxygen content and that can lead to a leaner combustion, which improves the completeness of combustion and therefore high performance and less emissions would be obtained. Finally, the performance and emissions of iso-butanol–gasoline blends are compared with those of n-butanol–gasoline blends at similar blended rates and engine working conditions. Such comparison is directed to evaluate the combustion dissimilarity of the two butanol isomers and also to

  15. A comparative study of the oxidation characteristics of two gasoline fuels and an n-heptane/iso-octane surrogate mixture

    KAUST Repository

    Javed, Tamour

    2015-01-01

    Ignition delay times and CO, H2O, OH and CO2 time-histories were measured behind reflected shock waves for two FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasolines and one PRF (Primary Reference Fuel) blend. The FACE gasolines chosen for this work are primarily paraffinic and have the same octane rating (∼RON = 84) as the PRF blend, but contain varying amounts of iso- and n-paraffins. Species time-histories and ignition delay times were measured using laser absorption methods over a temperature range of 1350-1550 K and pressures near 2 atm. Measured species time-histories and ignition delay times of the PRF blend and the two FACE fuels agreed reasonably well. However, when compared to recent gasoline surrogate mechanisms, the simulations did not capture some of the kinetic trends found in the species profiles. To our knowledge, this work provides some of the first shock tube species time-history data for gasoline fuels and PRF surrogates and should enable further improvements in detailed kinetic mechanisms of gasoline fuels.

  16. Atomization and spray characteristics of bioethanol and bioethanol blended gasoline fuel injected through a direct injection gasoline injector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Su Han; Kim, Hyung Jun; Suh, Hyun Kyu; Lee, Chang Sik

    2009-01-01

    The focus of this study was to investigate the spray characteristics and atomization performance of gasoline fuel (G100), bioethanol fuel (E100), and bioethanol blended gasoline fuel (E85) in a direct injection gasoline injector in a gasoline engine. The overall spray and atomization characteristics such as an axial spray tip penetration, spray width, and overall SMD were measured experimentally and predicted by using KIVA-3V code. The development process and the appearance timing of the vortices in the test fuels were very similar. In addition, the numerical results accurately described the experimentally observed spray development pattern and shape, the beginning position of the vortex, and the spray breakup on the spray surface. Moreover, the increased injection pressure induced the occurrence of a clear circular shape in the downstream spray and a uniform mixture between the injected spray droplets and ambient air. The axial spray tip penetrations of the test fuels were similar, while the spray width and spray cone angle of E100 were slightly larger than the other fuels. In terms of atomization performance, the E100 fuel among the tested fuels had the largest droplet size because E100 has a high kinematic viscosity and surface tension.

  17. Impact of methanol-gasoline fuel blend on the fuel consumption and exhaust emission of a SI engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifal, Mohamad; Sinaga, Nazaruddin

    2016-04-01

    In this study, the effect of methanol-gasoline fuel blend (M15, M30 and M50) on the fuel consumption and exhaust emission of a spark ignition engine (SI) were investigated. In the experiment, an engine four-cylinder, four stroke injection system (engine of Toyota Kijang Innova 1TR-FE) was used. Test were did to know the relation of fuel consumption and exhaust emission (CO, CO2, HC) were analyzed under the idle throttle operating condition and variable engine speed ranging from 1000 to 4000 rpm. The experimental result showed that the fuel consumption decrease with the use of methanol. It was also shown that the CO and HC emission were reduced with the increase methanol content while CO2 were increased.

  18. Modeling of Heating and Evaporation of FACE I Gasoline Fuel and its Surrogates

    KAUST Repository

    Elwardani, Ahmed Elsaid; Badra, Jihad; Sim, Jaeheon; Khurshid, Muneeb; Sarathy, Mani; Im, Hong G.

    2016-01-01

    ) of approximately 70. The detailed hydrocarbon analysis (DHA) of FACE I shows that it contains 33 components. This large number of components cannot be handled in fuel spray simulation where thousands of droplets are directly injected in combustion chamber

  19. Gasoline-fueled hybrid vs. conventional vehicle emissions and fuel economy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, J.; Bharathan, D.; He, J.; Plotkin, S.; Santini, D.; Vyas, A.

    1999-06-18

    This paper addresses the relative fuel economy and emissions behavior, both measured and modeled, of technically comparable, contemporary hybrid and conventional vehicles fueled by gasoline, in terms of different driving cycles. Criteria pollutants (hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen oxides) are discussed, and the potential emissions benefits of designing hybrids for grid connection are briefly considered. In 1997, Toyota estimated that their grid-independent hybrid vehicle would obtain twice the fuel economy of a comparable conventional vehicle on the Japan 10/15 mode driving cycle. This initial result, as well as the fuel economy level (66 mpg), made its way into the U.S. press. Criteria emissions amounting to one-tenth of Japanese standards were cited, and some have interpreted these results to suggest that the grid-independent hybrid can reduce criteria emissions in the U.S. more sharply than can a conventional gasoline vehicle. This paper shows that the potential of contemporary grid-independent hybrid vehicle technology for reducing emissions and fuel consumption under U.S. driving conditions is less than some have inferred. The importance (and difficulty) of doing test and model assessments with comparable driving cycles, comparable emissions control technology, and comparable performance capabilities is emphasized. Compared with comparable-technology conventional vehicles, grid-independent hybrids appear to have no clear criteria pollutant benefits (or disbenefits). (Such benefits are clearly possible with grid-connectable hybrids operating in zero emissions mode.) However, significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (i.e., fuel consumption) are possible with hybrid vehicles when they are used to best advantage.

  20. Trends of NO-, NO 2-, and NH 3-emissions from gasoline-fueled Euro-3- to Euro-4-passenger cars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeb, Norbert V.; Saxer, Christian J.; Forss, Anna-Maria; Brühlmann, Stefan

    Vehicular emissions of reactive nitrogen compounds (RNCs) such as nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2), and ammonia (NH 3) have a substantial impact on urban air quality. NO and NO 2 support the photochemical formation of ozone, and NH 3 is involved in the atmospheric formation of secondary aerosols. Vehicular NO is mainly formed during combustion, whereas NO 2 and NH 3 are both secondary pollutants of the catalytic converter systems. Herein we report on tail-pipe RNC emissions of gasoline-fueled Euro-3- and Euro-4-passenger cars at transient driving from 0 to 150 km h -1. Two sets of 10 in-use vehicles with comparable engine size and mileage were studied with time-resolved chemical ionization-mass spectrometry (CI-MS). Each vehicle was tested in 7 different driving cycles including the legislative European (EDC) and the US FTP-75 driving cycles. Mean emission factors (EFs) for different traffic situations are reported and effects of cold start, velocity, acceleration, and deceleration are discussed. Furthermore, critical operating conditions supporting the de novo formation of NH 3 have been identified. In the EDC, mean NO- and NH 3-EFs of 57±26 and 16±12 mg km -1 were obtained for Euro-3-vehicles; those of the Euro-4-technology were lower by about 25% and 33% at the levels of 43±46 and 10±7 mg km -1, respectively. NO 2 emissions of the investigated three-way catalyst (TWC) vehicles accounted for exhaust. Velocity and acceleration had pronounced effects on the RNC emission characteristics. Mean velocity-dependent EFs for NO and NH 3 varied by about one order of magnitude from 10 to 74 and 15 to 161 mg km -1 for Euro-3-vehicles and from 12 to 44 and 7 to 144 mg km -1 for the Euro-4 fleet. We conclude that the investigated Euro-3- and Euro-4-vehicles are mainly operated under slightly reducing conditions, where the NH 3 emissions dominate over those of the NO. Under these conditions, both vehicle fleets on an average fulfilled the valid Euro-3 and Euro-4

  1. Performance and exhaust emissions of a gasoline engine with ethanol blended gasoline fuels using artificial neural network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Najafi, G.; Ghobadian, B.; Tavakoli, T.; Faizollahnejad, M. [Tarbiat Modares University, Jalale-E-Aleahmad Highway, Tehran, P.O. Box: 14115-111 (Iran); Buttsworth, D.R.; Yusaf, T.F. [University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, 4350 QLD (Australia)

    2009-05-15

    The purpose of this study is to experimentally analyse the performance and the pollutant emissions of a four-stroke SI engine operating on ethanol-gasoline blends of 0%, 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% with the aid of artificial neural network (ANN). The properties of bioethanol were measured based on American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standards. The experimental results revealed that using ethanol-gasoline blended fuels increased the power and torque output of the engine marginally. For ethanol blends it was found that the brake specific fuel consumption (bsfc) was decreased while the brake thermal efficiency ({eta}{sub b.th.}) and the volumetric efficiency ({eta}{sub v}) were increased. The concentration of CO and HC emissions in the exhaust pipe were measured and found to be decreased when ethanol blends were introduced. This was due to the high oxygen percentage in the ethanol. In contrast, the concentration of CO{sub 2} and NO{sub x} was found to be increased when ethanol is introduced. An ANN model was developed to predict a correlation between brake power, torque, brake specific fuel consumption, brake thermal efficiency, volumetric efficiency and emission components using different gasoline-ethanol blends and speeds as inputs data. About 70% of the total experimental data were used for training purposes, while the 30% were used for testing. A standard Back-Propagation algorithm for the engine was used in this model. A multi layer perception network (MLP) was used for nonlinear mapping between the input and the output parameters. It was observed that the ANN model can predict engine performance and exhaust emissions with correlation coefficient (R) in the range of 0.97-1. Mean relative errors (MRE) values were in the range of 0.46-5.57%, while root mean square errors (RMSE) were found to be very low. This study demonstrates that ANN approach can be used to accurately predict the SI engine performance and emissions. (author)

  2. Decreasing the emissions of a partially premixed gasoline fueled compression ignition engine by means of injection characteristics and EGR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nemati Arash

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is presented in order to elucidate some numerical investigations related to a partially premixed gasoline fuelled engine by means of three dimensional CFD code. Comparing with the diesel fuel, gasoline has lower soot emission because of its higher ignition delay. The application of double injection strategy reduces the maximum heat release rate and leads to the reduction of NOx emission. For validation of the model, the results for the mean in-cylinder pressure, H.R.R., NOx and soot emissions are compared with the corresponding experimental data and show good levels of agreement. The effects of injection characteristics such as, injection duration, spray angle, nozzle hole diameter, injected fuel temperature and EGR rate on combustion process and emission formation are investigated yielding the determination of the optimal point thereafter. The results indicated that optimization of injection characteristics leads to simultaneous reduction of NOx and soot emissions with negligible change in IMEP.

  3. Evaluation of light LPG-fueled vehicles and comparison with their diesel-fueled and gasoline-fueled versions. Measurements of regulated and non-regulated pollutant emissions. Measurement of CO{sub 2} emissions and fuel consumption; Evaluation de vehicules legers fonctionnant au GPL et comparatif avec leurs versions essence et diesel. Mesures des emissions polluantes reglementees et non reglementees. Mesure des emissions de CO{sub 2} et de la consommation de carburant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gagnepain, L.

    2004-04-01

    During the end of the 1990's the number of light LPG-fueled vehicles has increased thanks to the environmental advantages of this automotive fuel and to its tax depreciation advantage. A European emission test program (EETP) has been initiated by LPG companies (BP LPG, French committee of butane propane, liquefied petroleum gas association, Shell global autogas, SHV gas, Totalgas, Vereniging Vloeibaar Gas) and by environment agencies (Ademe, energy saving trust) in order to compare the environmental performances of LPG-fueled vehicles with their equivalent diesel-fueled and gasoline-fueled models. Four laboratories have participated to this evaluation: TUV (Germany), IFP (France), TNO (Netherlands) and Millbrook (UK). The comparative results are presented in tables and graphs (CO, HC, NO{sub x} and CO{sub 2} emissions, fuel consumption, CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, benzene, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) emissions, 'well to wheel' greenhouse impact, ozone formation potential, carcinogen risk). The results show important differences among the different models and differences in the environmental performances depending on the vehicle utilization (highway, urban area use). In general the new generation (Euro 3) of LPG-fueled vehicles is significantly better in terms of environmental impact than the previous generation (Euro 2) of vehicles. (J.S.)

  4. Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. This report details compliance for model year 2015, fiscal year 2016.

  5. Improvement of performance and reduction of pollutant emission of a four stroke spark ignition engine fueled with hydrogen-gasoline fuel mixture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Baghdadi, Maher Abdul-Resul Sadiq; Al-Janabi, Haroun Abdul-Kadim Shahad [Babylon Univ., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Babylon (Iraq)

    2000-07-01

    The effect of the amount of hydrogen/ethyl alcohol addition on the performance and pollutant emissions of a four stroke spark ignition engine has been studied. A detailed model to simulate a four stroke cycle of a spark ignition engine fueled with hydrogen-ethyl alcohol-gasoline has been used to study the effect of hydrogen and ethyl alcohol blending on the thermodynamic cycle of the engine. The results of the study show that all engine performance parameters have been improved when operating the gasoline S.I.E. with dual addition of hydrogen and ethyl alcohol. It has been found that 4% of hydrogen and 30% of ethyl alcohol blending causes a 49% reduction in CO emission, a 39% reduction in NO{sub x} emission, a 49% reduction in specific fuel consumption and increases in the thermal efficiency and output power by 5 and 4%, respectively. When ethyl alcohol is increased over 30%, it causes unstable engine operation which can be related to the fact that the fuel is not vaporised, and this causes a reduction in both the brake power and efficiency. (Author)

  6. New approaches to the modelling of multi-component fuel droplet heating and evaporation

    KAUST Repository

    Sazhin, Sergei S

    2015-02-25

    The previously suggested quasi-discrete model for heating and evaporation of complex multi-component hydrocarbon fuel droplets is described. The dependence of density, viscosity, heat capacity and thermal conductivity of liquid components on carbon numbers n and temperatures is taken into account. The effects of temperature gradient and quasi-component diffusion inside droplets are taken into account. The analysis is based on the Effective Thermal Conductivity/Effective Diffusivity (ETC/ED) model. This model is applied to the analysis of Diesel and gasoline fuel droplet heating and evaporation. The components with relatively close n are replaced by quasi-components with properties calculated as average properties of the a priori defined groups of actual components. Thus the analysis of the heating and evaporation of droplets consisting of many components is replaced with the analysis of the heating and evaporation of droplets consisting of relatively few quasi-components. It is demonstrated that for Diesel and gasoline fuel droplets the predictions of the model based on five quasi-components are almost indistinguishable from the predictions of the model based on twenty quasi-components for Diesel fuel droplets and are very close to the predictions of the model based on thirteen quasi-components for gasoline fuel droplets. It is recommended that in the cases of both Diesel and gasoline spray combustion modelling, the analysis of droplet heating and evaporation is based on as little as five quasi-components.

  7. 49 CFR 537.7 - Pre-model year and mid-model year reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... accordance with subpart D of 40 CFR part 600, (2) Body style, (3) Beginning model year 2010, base tire as...) Passenger-carrying volume, (2) Cargo-carrying volume, (3) Beginning model year 2008, base tire as defined in...; (ii) Departure angle; (iii) Breakover angle; (iv) Axle clearance; (v) Minimum running clearance; and...

  8. 40 CFR 86.092-2 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... production techniques as components or systems which have been durability demonstrated in some other... 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and...

  9. The standard model 30 years of glory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefrancois, J.

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e + ,e - ), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e + e - experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  10. The standard model 30 years of glory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefrancois, J

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e{sup +},e{sup -}), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e{sup +}e{sup -} experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  11. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  12. One Hundred Years of Bohr Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    In this article I shall present a brief review of the .... By 1900, the amount of information available about .... resulting value was in quite good agreement with the .... It is fair to say that Bohr's model of the atom is simple, elegant, revolutionary but ...

  13. Vermont travel model 2010-2011 (year 3) report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    This report is being prepared under Task 1 of the Maintenance, Operation and Evaluation of the VTrans Statewide Transportation Model contract with the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans) in the 2010-2011 year of the contract. The objectiv...

  14. Measured and Predicted Vapor Liquid Equilibrium of Ethanol-Gasoline Fuels with Insight on the Influence of Azeotrope Interactions on Aromatic Species Enrichment and Particulate Matter Formation in Spark Ignition Engines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ratcliff, Matthew A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCormick, Robert L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Burke, Stephen [Colorado State University; Rhoads, Robert [University of Colorado; Windom, Bret [Colorado State University

    2018-04-03

    A relationship has been observed between increasing ethanol content in gasoline and increased particulate matter (PM) emissions from direct injection spark ignition (DISI) vehicles. The fundamental cause of this observation is not well understood. One potential explanation is that increased evaporative cooling as a result of ethanol's high HOV may slow evaporation and prevent sufficient reactant mixing resulting in the combustion of localized fuel rich regions within the cylinder. In addition, it is well known that ethanol when blended in gasoline forms positive azeotropes which can alter the liquid/vapor composition during the vaporization process. In fact, it was shown recently through a numerical study that these interactions can retain the aromatic species within the liquid phase impeding the in-cylinder mixing of these compounds, which would accentuate PM formation upon combustion. To better understand the role of the azeotrope interactions on the vapor/liquid composition evolution of the fuel, distillations were performed using the Advanced Distillation Curve apparatus on carefully selected samples consisting of gasoline blended with ethanol and heavy aromatic and oxygenated compounds with varying vapor pressures, including cumene, p-cymene, 4-tertbutyl toluene, anisole, and 4-methyl anisole. Samples collected during the distillation indicate an enrichment of the heavy aromatic or oxygenated additive with an increase in initial ethanol concentration from E0 to E30. A recently developed distillation and droplet evaporation model is used to explore the influence of dilution effects versus azeotrope interactions on the aromatic species enrichment. The results suggest that HOV-cooling effects as well as aromatic species enrichment behaviors should be considered in future development of predictive indices to forecast the PM potential of fuels containing oxygenated compounds with comparatively high HOV.

  15. Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

  16. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  17. DIAGNOSTICS OF GASOLINE FUEL SYSTEMS WITH DIRECT INJECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bulgakov

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A method of diagnosing fuel systems with direct injection by means of producing a pressure oscillation in a hydraulic accumulator is presented. Having obtained a signal from pressure sensor it is possible to register a pressure drop at the moment of injection. If the system has a malfunction, then the pressure drop will be higher.

  18. Compact gasoline fuel processor for passenger vehicle APU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severin, Christopher; Pischinger, Stefan; Ogrzewalla, Jürgen

    Due to the increasing demand for electrical power in today's passenger vehicles, and with the requirements regarding fuel consumption and environmental sustainability tightening, a fuel cell-based auxiliary power unit (APU) becomes a promising alternative to the conventional generation of electrical energy via internal combustion engine, generator and battery. It is obvious that the on-board stored fuel has to be used for the fuel cell system, thus, gasoline or diesel has to be reformed on board. This makes the auxiliary power unit a complex integrated system of stack, air supply, fuel processor, electrics as well as heat and water management. Aside from proving the technical feasibility of such a system, the development has to address three major barriers:start-up time, costs, and size/weight of the systems. In this paper a packaging concept for an auxiliary power unit is presented. The main emphasis is placed on the fuel processor, as good packaging of this large subsystem has the strongest impact on overall size. The fuel processor system consists of an autothermal reformer in combination with water-gas shift and selective oxidation stages, based on adiabatic reactors with inter-cooling. The configuration was realized in a laboratory set-up and experimentally investigated. The results gained from this confirm a general suitability for mobile applications. A start-up time of 30 min was measured, while a potential reduction to 10 min seems feasible. An overall fuel processor efficiency of about 77% was measured. On the basis of the know-how gained by the experimental investigation of the laboratory set-up a packaging concept was developed. Using state-of-the-art catalyst and heat exchanger technology, the volumes of these components are fixed. However, the overall volume is higher mainly due to mixing zones and flow ducts, which do not contribute to the chemical or thermal function of the system. Thus, the concept developed mainly focuses on minimization of those component volumes. Therefore, the packaging utilizes rectangular catalyst bricks and integrates flow ducts into the heat exchangers. A concept is presented with a 25 l fuel processor volume including thermal isolation for a 3 kW el auxiliary power unit. The overall size of the system, i.e. including stack, air supply and auxiliaries can be estimated to 44 l.

  19. Environmental impact of ethanol-methanol-gasoline fuel mixture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szwarc, A.

    1990-01-01

    The main information of Environmental impact study - The use of methanol as fuel are described, including the emissions, comparative evaluations with others fuels, the danger for the health and the toxicity. (C.G.C.)

  20. The lubricity of ethanol-gasoline fuel blends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Agudelo

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se midió la lubricidad de varias mezclas etanol (hidratado o anhidro / gasolina usando un equipo HFRR convencional. Las pruebas se efectuaron a 25 ºC sin control de la presión de vapor del agua, de acuerdo con la norma ASTM D6079. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos el rango de variación del diámetro medio de la huella de desgaste fue pequeño entre los combustibles probados, indicando que la adición de etanol, anhidro o hidratado, no impacta signifi cativamente la lubricidad de la mezcla. La adición de etanol hidratado (96% v/v mejoró ligeramente la lubricidad de la mezcla en comparación con la adición de etanol anhidro. Los mayores diámetros medios de la huella de desgaste, menores películas de fl uido y mayores coefi cientes de fricción obtenidos para todos los combustibles probados, en comparación con los valores típicos de los combustibles diesel, indican la necesidad de usar aditivos de lubricidad cuando se usen mezclas etanol/gasolina en nuevas tecnologías de motor que requieran mayores presiones en el sistema de inyección de combustible.

  1. Luttinger model the first 50 years and some new directions

    CERN Document Server

    Mattis, Daniel C

    2014-01-01

    The Luttinger Model is the only model of many-fermion physics with legitimate claims to be both exactly and completely solvable. In several respects it plays the same role in many-body theory as does the 2D Ising model in statistical physics. Interest in the Luttinger model has increased steadily ever since its introduction half a century ago. The present volume starts with reprints of the seminal papers in which it was originally introduced and solved, and continues with several contributions setting out the landscape of the principal advances of the last fifty years and of prominent new dire

  2. Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  3. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  4. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  5. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  6. Model Year 2018 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2017-12-07

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  7. 15 years of food-chain modeling in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gheorghe, R.; Galeriu, D.; Apostoaie, I.; Gheorghe, D.

    2002-01-01

    In the very begin of Chernobyl accident, the high contamination of food, the large variability and the unexpected behavior posed many problems in order to assess the radiological consequences. A simple dynamic food-chain model was built in early May and used for our first assessment on future food contamination and overall impact of Chernobyl in Romania. This quite primitive model show remarkable performance when compared in late 86 and 87 with measurements and our projection of dose was close to a factor two with 10 years later post assessment. After the slowing down of radiological stress we developed a more advanced, process level model of food chain, using not only all literature available but also all local measurements with quality assurance. This model, named LINDOZ, was first internationally applied in the frame of A4 scenario in BIOMOVS 1. and presented in the 1990 Stockholm conference. It was the first time when fallout solubility and foliar absorption were introduced in such a model, explaining very well the dynamics of grass and milk contamination. Upgrades of the model were done concerning deposition and retention and LINDOZ91 was successfully applied in international comparisons VAMP and BIOMOVS 2., including blind tests. Using local expertise and certified data, correlation between probability distribution of deposition and food contamination were used and successfully applied to predict Cs body content distribution in VAMP scenario. Extension to lake-fish was done and tested with excellent results in BIOMOVS 2. In 1994, the model was applied in the first attempt to assess food contamination in Iput region and this old results have been compared recently with those obtained last year by other modelers using updated scenario information. The key points in LINDOZ and its performances in international comparison exercises are presented. In 90'years the German model ECOSYS was spread in Europe and a variant (FDMT) was developed as a food-chain model for

  8. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  9. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  10. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  11. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  12. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  13. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  14. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  17. Adsorptive Desulfurization of Model Gasoline by Using Different Zn Sources Exchanged NaY Zeolites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwei Rui

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available A series of Zn-modified NaY zeolites were prepared by the liquid-phase ion-exchange method with different Zn sources, including Zn(NO32, Zn(Ac2 and ZnSO4. The samples were tested as adsorbents for removing an organic sulfur compound from a model gasoline fuel containing 1000 ppmw sulfur. Zn(Ac2-Y exhibited the best performance for the desulfurization of gasoline at ambient conditions. Combined with the adsorbents’ characterization results, the higher adsorption capacity of Zn(Ac2-Y is associated with a higher ion-exchange degree. Further, the results demonstrated that the addition of 5 wt % toluene or 1-hexene to the diluted thiophene (TP solution in cyclohexane caused a large decrease in the removal of TP from the model gasoline fuel. This provides evidence about the competition through the π-complexation between TP and toluene for adsorption on the active sites. The acid-catalyzed alkylation by 1-hexene of TP and the generated complex mixture of bulky alkylthiophenes would adsorb on the surface active sites of the adsorbent and block the pores. The regenerated Zn(Ac2-Y adsorbent afforded 84.42% and 66.10% of the initial adsorption capacity after the first two regeneration cycles.

  18. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  19. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  20. Dynamical Downscaling of NASA/GISS ModelE: Continuous, Multi-Year WRF Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otte, T.; Bowden, J. H.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Herwehe, J. A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The WRF Model is being used at the U.S. EPA for dynamical downscaling of the NASA/GISS ModelE fields to assess regional impacts of climate change in the United States. The WRF model has been successfully linked to the ModelE fields in their raw hybrid vertical coordinate, and continuous, multi-year WRF downscaling simulations have been performed. WRF will be used to downscale decadal time slices of ModelE for recent past, current, and future climate as the simulations being conducted for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report become available. This presentation will focus on the sensitivity to interior nudging within the RCM. The use of interior nudging for downscaled regional climate simulations has been somewhat controversial over the past several years but has been recently attracting attention. Several recent studies that have used reanalysis (i.e., verifiable) fields as a proxy for GCM input have shown that interior nudging can be beneficial toward achieving the desired downscaled fields. In this study, the value of nudging will be shown using fields from ModelE that are downscaled using WRF. Several different methods of nudging are explored, and it will be shown that the method of nudging and the choices made with respect to how nudging is used in WRF are critical to balance the constraint of ModelE against the freedom of WRF to develop its own fields.

  1. Eight Year Climatologies from Observational (AIRS) and Model (MERRA) Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearty, Thomas; Savtchenko, Andrey; Won, Young-In; Theobalk, Mike; Vollmer, Bruce; Manning, Evan; Smith, Peter; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Greg

    2010-01-01

    We examine climatologies derived from eight years of temperature, water vapor, cloud, and trace gas observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flying on the Aqua satellite and compare them to similar climatologies constructed with data from a global assimilation model, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We use the AIRS climatologies to examine anomalies and trends in the AIRS data record. Since sampling can be an issue for infrared satellites in low earth orbit, we also use the MERRA data to examine the AIRS sampling biases. By sampling the MERRA data at the AIRS space-time locations both with and without the AIRS quality control we estimate the sampling bias of the AIRS climatology and the atmospheric conditions where AIRS has a lower sampling rate. While the AIRS temperature and water vapor sampling biases are small at low latitudes, they can be more than a few degrees in temperature or 10 percent in water vapor at higher latitudes. The largest sampling biases are over desert. The AIRS and MERRA data are available from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The AIRS climatologies we used are available for analysis with the GIOVANNI data exploration tool. (see, http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

  2. Acoustic Vocal Tract Model of One-year-old Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vojnović

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The physical shape of vocal tract and its formant (resonant frequencies are directly related. The study of this functional connectivity is essential in speech therapy practice with children. Most of the perceived children’s speech anomalies can be explained on a physical level: malfunctioning movement of articulation organs. The current problem is that there is no enough data on the anatomical shape of children’s vocal tract to create its acoustic model. Classical techniques for vocal tract shape imaging (X-ray, magnetic resonance, etc. are not appropriate for children. One possibility is to start from the shape of the adult vocal tract and correct it based on anatomical, morphological and articulatory differences between children and adults. This paper presents a method for vocal tract shape estimation of the child aged one year. The initial shapes of the vocal tract refer to the Russian vowels spoken by an adult male. All the relevant anatomical and articulation parameters, that influence the formant frequencies, are analyzed. Finally, the hypothetical configurations of the children’s vocal tract, for the five vowels, are presented.

  3. Reflection of a Year Long Model-Driven Business and UI Modeling Development Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukaviriya, Noi; Mani, Senthil; Sinha, Vibha

    Model-driven software development enables users to specify an application at a high level - a level that better matches problem domain. It also promises the users with better analysis and automation. Our work embarks on two collaborating domains - business process and human interactions - to build an application. Business modeling expresses business operations and flows then creates business flow implementation. Human interaction modeling expresses a UI design, its relationship with business data, logic, and flow, and can generate working UI. This double modeling approach automates the production of a working system with UI and business logic connected. This paper discusses the human aspects of this modeling approach after a year long of building a procurement outsourcing contract application using the approach - the result of which was deployed in December 2008. The paper discusses in multiple areas the happy endings and some heartache. We end with insights on how a model-driven approach could do better for humans in the process.

  4. 40 CFR 86.094-3 - Abbreviations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., and for 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas... of this part, and have the following meanings: ALVW—Adjusted Loaded Vehicle Weight LPG—Liquefied Petroleum Gas NMHC—Nonmethane Hydrocarbons NMHCE—Non-Methane Hydrocarbon Equivalent PM—Particulate Matter...

  5. 40 CFR 86.001-21 - Application for certification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and Heavy-Duty Engines, and for 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and Methanol-Fueled Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.001-21 Application for... a volume of fuel equal to 85% of fuel tank volume. (b)(6)-(b)(8) [Reserved]. For guidance see § 86...

  6. 40 CFR 86.098-2 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and... on liquefied petroleum gas-fueled vehicles which uses a relatively small positive shutoff valve and... the fuel being dispensed into the tank of the test vehicle during a refueling test. Evaporative...

  7. 40 CFR 86.099-17 - Emission control diagnostic system for 1999 and later light-duty vehicles and light-duty trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and Methanol-Fueled... alternate fueled vehicles. For alternate fueled vehicles (e.g., natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas.... On vehicles with fuel tank capacity greater than 25 gallons, the Administrator may, following a...

  8. 40 CFR 86.004-21 - Application for certification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and Heavy-Duty Engines, and for 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and Methanol-Fueled Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.004-21 Application for...% of fuel tank volume. (6) Participation in averaging programs—(i) Particulate averaging. (A) If the...

  9. 40 CFR 86.095-35 - Labeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and... trademark of manufacturer; (C) Evaporative family identification; (D) The maximum nominal fuel tank capacity... vehicles whose evaporative control system efficiency is not dependent on fuel tank capacity); and (E) An...

  10. 40 CFR 86.082-2 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and... that they are produced by a separate division of a single manufacturer. Calibrating gas means a gas of... calibrations, fuel tank and carburetor bowl vent calibrations and other fuel system and evaporative emission...

  11. 40 CFR 86.094-21 - Application for certification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and Heavy-Duty Engines, and for 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and Methanol-Fueled Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.094-21 Application for... manufacturer shall specify a maximum nominal fuel tank capacity for each evaporative emission family...

  12. 40 CFR 86.231-94 - Vehicle preparation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Vehicle preparation. 86.231-94 Section... (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES Emission Regulations for 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  13. 40 CFR 86.232-94 - Vehicle preconditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Vehicle preconditioning. 86.232-94... (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES Emission Regulations for 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  14. 40 CFR 86.078-3 - Abbreviations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., and for 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas... feet per hour. CFV—Critical flow venturi. CFV-CVS—Critical flow venturi—constant volume sampler... pump—constant volume sampler. ppm—parts per million by volume. ppm C—parts per million, carbon. psi...

  15. 40 CFR 86.203-94 - Abbreviations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Abbreviations. 86.203-94 Section 86.203-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  16. 40 CFR 86.214-94 - Analytical gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Analytical gases. 86.214-94 Section 86.214-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  17. 40 CFR 86.235-94 - Dynamometer procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Dynamometer procedure. 86.235-94 Section 86.235-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  18. 40 CFR 86.240-94 - Exhaust sample analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exhaust sample analysis. 86.240-94 Section 86.240-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  19. 40 CFR 86.213-94 - Fuel specifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fuel specifications. 86.213-94 Section 86.213-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  20. 40 CFR 86.213-04 - Fuel specifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fuel specifications. 86.213-04 Section 86.213-04 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  1. 40 CFR 86.201-94 - General applicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false General applicability. 86.201-94 Section 86.201-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  2. 40 CFR 86.228-94 - Transmissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Transmissions. 86.228-94 Section 86.228-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  3. 40 CFR 86.218-94 - Dynamometer calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Dynamometer calibration. 86.218-94 Section 86.218-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  4. 40 CFR 86.213-11 - Fuel specifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fuel specifications. 86.213-11 Section 86.213-11 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  5. 40 CFR 86.227-94 - Test procedures; overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Test procedures; overview. 86.227-94 Section 86.227-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  6. 40 CFR 86.219-94 - CVS calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false CVS calibration. 86.219-94 Section 86.219-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  7. 40 CFR 86.201-11 - General applicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false General applicability. 86.201-11 Section 86.201-11 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS... 1994 and Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium...

  8. 40 CFR 86.202-94 - Definitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Definitions. 86.202-94 Section 86.202-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  9. 40 CFR 86.242-94 - Records required.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Records required. 86.242-94 Section 86.242-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  10. 40 CFR 86.208-94 - Dynamometer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Dynamometer. 86.208-94 Section 86.208-94 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED... Later Model Year Gasoline-Fueled New Light-Duty Vehicles, New Light-Duty Trucks and New Medium-Duty...

  11. A comprehensive iso-octane combustion model with improved thermochemistry and chemical kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Atef, Nour; Kukkadapu, Goutham; Mohamed, Samah; Rashidi, Mariam Al; Banyon, Colin; Mehl, Marco; Heufer, Karl Alexander; Nasir, Ehson Fawad; Alfazazi, Adamu; Das, Apurba K.; Westbrook, Charles K.; Pitz, William J.; Lu, Tianfeng; Farooq, Aamir; Sung, Chih-Jen; Curran, Henry J.; Sarathy, Mani

    2017-01-01

    Iso-Octane (2,2,4-trimethylpentane) is a primary reference fuel and an important component of gasoline fuels. Moreover, it is a key component used in surrogates to study the ignition and burning characteristics of gasoline fuels. This paper presents

  12. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-05-11

    This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

  13. Reduced Gasoline Surrogate (Toluene/n-Heptane/iso-Octane) Chemical Kinetic Model for Compression Ignition Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani

    2018-04-03

    Toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF) (mixture of toluene, iso-octane and heptane) is a suitable surrogate to represent a wide spectrum of real fuels with varying octane sensitivity. Investigating different surrogates in engine simulations is a prerequisite to identify the best matching mixture. However, running 3D engine simulations using detailed models is currently impossible and reduction of detailed models is essential. This work presents an AramcoMech reduced kinetic model developed at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) for simulating complex TPRF surrogate blends. A semi-decoupling approach was used together with species and reaction lumping to obtain a reduced kinetic model. The model was widely validated against experimental data including shock tube ignition delay times and premixed laminar flame speeds. Finally, the model was utilized to simulate the combustion of a low reactivity gasoline fuel under partially premixed combustion conditions.

  14. Reduced Gasoline Surrogate (Toluene/n-Heptane/iso-Octane) Chemical Kinetic Model for Compression Ignition Simulations

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani; Atef, Nour; Alfazazi, Adamu; Badra, Jihad; Zhang, Yu; Tzanetakis, Tom; Pei, Yuanjiang

    2018-01-01

    Toluene primary reference fuel (TPRF) (mixture of toluene, iso-octane and heptane) is a suitable surrogate to represent a wide spectrum of real fuels with varying octane sensitivity. Investigating different surrogates in engine simulations is a prerequisite to identify the best matching mixture. However, running 3D engine simulations using detailed models is currently impossible and reduction of detailed models is essential. This work presents an AramcoMech reduced kinetic model developed at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) for simulating complex TPRF surrogate blends. A semi-decoupling approach was used together with species and reaction lumping to obtain a reduced kinetic model. The model was widely validated against experimental data including shock tube ignition delay times and premixed laminar flame speeds. Finally, the model was utilized to simulate the combustion of a low reactivity gasoline fuel under partially premixed combustion conditions.

  15. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: intervention model fiscal year 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the researcher, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in terms of crashes avoided, injuries avoided, ...

  16. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  17. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  18. The early years of string theory: The dual resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramond, P.

    1987-10-01

    This paper reviews the past quantum mechanical history of the dual resonance model which is an early string theory. The content of this paper is listed as follows: historical review, the Veneziano amplitude, the operator formalism, the ghost story, and the string story

  19. The "Biopsychosocial Model": 40 years of application in Psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, G

    2017-01-01

    In 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "TheIn 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "Theneed for a new medical model: A challenge for biomedicine", introducing the term Biopsychosocial Model. This model basedon the results of Engel's studies in ulcerative colitis, depression and psychogenic pain, constituted a challenge for biomedicineand the biomedical model. The basic principles of the model included the biological, psychological and social dimensions of the person's life and theperception that the person suffers as a whole and not as isolated organs. The doctor should use a holistic approach regardingillness and should consider his/her relation with the patient socially equal. The personality and the emotional reserves of thepatient, as well as the particular environmental conditions in which the person lives in should be taken into account. There is no doubt that the biopsychosocial model has established a more empathetic and compassionate approach in medical practice. Already since 1936, the general adaptation syndrome had been proposed by the Austrian-Canadian endocrinologist HansSeley (1907-1982), who emphasized that psychological stressful factors may have injurious consequences on health, while theresponse systems to stress may be dysregulated not only by genetic factors, but also from experiences and stressful life events,as well as by harmful behaviors such as smoking, alcohol consumption and lack of physical exercise. Psychosocial factors may co-determine the patient's vulnerability and the illness's severity and course. The biopsychosocialmodel consider the interactions with genetic susceptibility, personality, stressful events and, generally, with the patient's socialcontext. Environmental factors increase the probability of the clinical expression of a mental disorder, play a role in the time

  20. Acoustic vocal tract model of one-year-old children

    OpenAIRE

    Vojnović, Milan; Bogavac, Ivana; Dobrijević, Ljiljana

    2014-01-01

    The physical shape of vocal tract and its formant (resonant) frequencies are directly related. The study of this functional connectivity is essential in speech therapy practice with children. Most of the perceived children’s speech anomalies can be explained on a physical level: malfunctioning movement of articulation organs. The current problem is that there is no enough data on the anatomical shape of children’s vocal tract to create its acoustic model. Classical techniques for vocal tract...

  1. Modelling loans and deposits during electoral years i n Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae - Marius JULA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effect of electoral years on loans and deposits for population in Romania. Using monthly data regarding the total loans and deposits, we identify the significance of the electoral timing on population´s behavior regarding financial decisions. We estimate that there are small changes in population´s affinity for increase in the indebtedness or for savings. We use dummy variables for electoral periods, and when these are econometrically significant there is an evidence of the influence of the electoral timings in population´s financial decisions.

  2. Numerical modelling: where will we be in ten years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caseau, P.

    1993-01-01

    Computer hardware power is increasing following a regular curve since 30 years; the 2000-2005 horizon is easy to extrapolate. But interactions between machine capacity, processing speed, working memory and memory store, pre- and post-processing/stations capacity, process communications/stations capacity, etc. are more difficult to assess, such as the place of one-Teraflop machines in an architecture. The needs for an one Teraflop capacity for various applications are discussed: numerical simulation of diffusion and transport in neutronics, of poly-phasic and reactive flows, of large electric utility networks, of physico-chemistry at molecular levels; artificial intelligence may play a major role. 2 figs

  3. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  4. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Intervention Model in fiscal year 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    This report presents results from FMCSAs Roadside Intervention Model for fiscal year 2007. The model estimates the number of crashes avoided, as well as injuries avoided and lives saved, as a result of the Agencys roadside inspection program. T...

  5. A comprehensive iso-octane combustion model with improved thermochemistry and chemical kinetics

    KAUST Repository

    Atef, Nour

    2017-02-05

    Iso-Octane (2,2,4-trimethylpentane) is a primary reference fuel and an important component of gasoline fuels. Moreover, it is a key component used in surrogates to study the ignition and burning characteristics of gasoline fuels. This paper presents an updated chemical kinetic model for iso-octane combustion. Specifically, the thermodynamic data and reaction kinetics of iso-octane have been re-assessed based on new thermodynamic group values and recently evaluated rate coefficients from the literature. The adopted rate coefficients were either experimentally measured or determined by analogy to theoretically calculated values. Furthermore, new alternative isomerization pathways for peroxy-alkyl hydroperoxide (ȮOQOOH) radicals were added to the reaction mechanism. The updated kinetic model was compared against new ignition delay data measured in rapid compression machines (RCM) and a high-pressure shock tube. These experiments were conducted at pressures of 20 and 40 atm, at equivalence ratios of 0.4 and 1.0, and at temperatures in the range of 632–1060 K. The updated model was further compared against shock tube ignition delay times, jet-stirred reactor oxidation speciation data, premixed laminar flame speeds, counterflow diffusion flame ignition, and shock tube pyrolysis speciation data available in the literature. Finally, the updated model was used to investigate the importance of alternative isomerization pathways in the low temperature oxidation of highly branched alkanes. When compared to available models in the literature, the present model represents the current state-of-the-art in fundamental thermochemistry and reaction kinetics of iso-octane; and thus provides the best prediction of wide ranging experimental data and fundamental insights into iso-octane combustion chemistry.

  6. Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

    2018-01-01

    This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

  7. Understanding Weight Management Perceptions in First-Year College Students Using the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bhibha M.; Evans, Ellen M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine weight management barriers, using the Health Belief Model, in first-year college students. Participants: First-year college students (n = 45), with data collected in April, May, and November 2013. Methods: Nominal group technique sessions (n = 8) were conducted. Results: First-year students recognize benefits to weight…

  8. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 1 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2013-01-01

    On September 22, 2012, NSF announced its decision to fund a three-year project, "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO). In the first year of grant operation, MIAEO has invited 18 high school students, two K-12 teachers, and two CSUB student assistants to conduct research explorations in the fields of…

  9. Continuous Improvement of a Groundwater Model over a 20-Year Period: Lessons Learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Peter F; Ross, James L; Fenske, Jon P

    2018-04-17

    Groundwater models developed for specific sites generally become obsolete within a few years due to changes in: (1) modeling technology; (2) site/project personnel; (3) project funding; and (4) modeling objectives. Consequently, new models are sometimes developed for the same sites using the latest technology and data, but without potential knowledge gained from the prior models. When it occurs, this practice is particularly problematic because, although technology, data, and observed conditions change, development of the new numerical model may not consider the conceptual model's underpinnings. As a contrary situation, we present the unique case of a numerical flow and trichloroethylene (TCE) transport model that was first developed in 1993 and since revised and updated annually by the same personnel. The updates are prompted by an increase in the amount of data, exposure to a wider range of hydrologic conditions over increasingly longer timeframes, technological advances, evolving modeling objectives, and revised modeling methodologies. The history of updates shows smooth, incremental changes in the conceptual model and modeled aquifer parameters that result from both increase and decrease in complexity. Myriad modeling objectives have included demonstrating the ineffectiveness of a groundwater extraction/injection system, evaluating potential TCE degradation, locating new monitoring points, and predicting likelihood of exceedance of groundwater standards. The application emphasizes an original tenet of successful groundwater modeling: iterative adjustment of the conceptual model based on observations of actual vs. model response. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  10. Adolescents Exiting Homelessness over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua

    2009-01-01

    The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM) demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal…

  11. Mathematical Modelling in the Junior Secondary Years: An Approach Incorporating Mathematical Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, James; Carter, Merilyn; Cooper, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models are conceptual processes that use mathematics to describe, explain, and/or predict the behaviour of complex systems. This article is written for teachers of mathematics in the junior secondary years (including out-of-field teachers of mathematics) who may be unfamiliar with mathematical modelling, to explain the steps involved…

  12. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  13. Nano-Continuum Modeling of a Nuclear Glass Specimen Altered for 25 Years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, Carl

    2014-01-06

    The purpose of this contribution is to report on preliminary nano-continuum scale modeling of nuclear waste glass corrosion. The focus of the modeling is an experiment involving a French glass SON68 specimen leached for 25 years in a granitic environment. In this report, we focus on capturing the nano-scale concentration profiles. We use a high resolution continuum model with a constant grid spacing of 1 nanometer to investigate the glass corrosion mechanisms.

  14. 40 CFR 1068.360 - What restrictions apply to assigning a model year to imported engines and equipment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... new engine identified as a 2007 model-year product that is imported on January 31, 2010 will be... equipment? This section includes limitations on assigning a model year to engines and equipment that are imported in a year later than the model year in which they were manufactured, except as specified in...

  15. Rapid prototyping modelling in oral and maxillofacial surgery: A two year retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suomalainen, Anni; Stoor, Patricia; Mesimäki, Karri; Kontio, Risto K

    2015-12-01

    The use of rapid prototyping (RP) models in medicine to construct bony models is increasing. The aim of the study was to evaluate retrospectively the indication for the use of RP models in oral and maxillofacial surgery at Helsinki University Central Hospital during 2009-2010. Also, the used computed tomography (CT) examination - multislice CT (MSCT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) - method was evaluated. In total 114 RP models were fabricated for 102 patients. The mean age of the patients at the time of the production of the model was 50.4 years. The indications for the modelling included malignant lesions (29%), secondary reconstruction (25%), prosthodontic treatment (22%), orthognathic surgery or asymmetry (13%), benign lesions (8%), and TMJ disorders (4%). MSCT examination was used in 92 and CBCT examination in 22 cases. Most of the models (75%) were conventional hard tissue models. Models with colored tumour or other structure(s) of interest were ordered in 24%. Two out of the 114 models were soft tissue models. The main benefit of the models was in treatment planning and in connection with the production of pre-bent plates or custom made implants. The RP models both facilitate and improve treatment planning and intraoperative efficiency. Rapid prototyping, radiology, computed tomography, cone beam computed tomography.

  16. 25 Years of Model-Driven Web Engineering: What we achieved, What is missing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rossi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Model-Driven Web Engineering (MDWE approaches aim to improve the Web applications development process by focusing on modeling instead of coding, and deriving the running application by transformations from conceptual models to code. The emergence of the Interaction Flow Modeling Language (IFML has been an important milestone in the evolution of Web modeling languages, indicating not only the maturity of the field but also a final convergence of languages. In this paper we explain the evolution of modeling and design approaches since the early years (in the 90’s detailing the forces which drove that evolution and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of some of those approaches. A brief presentation of the IFML is accompanied with a thorough analysis of the most important achievements of the MDWE community as well as the problems and obstacles that hinder the dissemination of model-driven techniques in the Web engineering field.

  17. Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Program 18th annual report to Congress for Fiscal Year 1994

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-04-01

    The Department remains focused on the technologies that are critical to making electric and hybrid vehicles commercially viable and competitive with current production gasoline-fueled vehicles in performance, reliability, and affordability. During Fiscal Year 1994, significant progress was made toward fulfilling the intent of Congress. The Department and the United States Advanced Battery Consortium (a partnership of the three major domestic automobile manufacturers) continued to work together and to focus the efforts of battery developers on the battery technologies that are most likely to be commercialized in the near term. Progress was made in industry cost-shared contracts toward demonstrating the technical feasibility of fuel cells for passenger bus and light duty vehicle applications. Two industry teams which will develop hybrid vehicle propulsion technologies have been selected through competitive procurement and have initiated work, in Fiscal Year 1994. In addition, technical studies and program planning continue, as required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992, to achieve the goals of reducing the transportation sector dependence on imported oil, reducing the level of environmentally harmful emissions, and enhancing industrial productivity and competitiveness.

  18. A comparison of emission calculations using different modeled indicators with 1-year online measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengers, Bernd; Schiefler, Inga; Büscher, Wolfgang

    2013-12-01

    The overall measurement of farm level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production is not feasible, from either an engineering or administrative point of view. Instead, computational model systems are used to generate emission inventories, demanding a validation by measurement data. This paper tests the GHG calculation of the dairy farm-level optimization model DAIRYDYN, including methane (CH₄) from enteric fermentation and managed manure. The model involves four emission calculation procedures (indicators), differing in the aggregation level of relevant input variables. The corresponding emission factors used by the indicators range from default per cow (activity level) emissions up to emission factors based on feed intake, manure amount, and milk production intensity. For validation of the CH₄ accounting of the model, 1-year CH₄ measurements of an experimental free-stall dairy farm in Germany are compared to model simulation results. An advantage of this interdisciplinary study is given by the correspondence of the model parameterization and simulation horizon with the experimental farm's characteristics and measurement period. The results clarify that modeled emission inventories (2,898, 4,637, 4,247, and 3,600 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1)) lead to more or less good approximations of online measurements (average 3,845 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1) (±275 owing to manure management)) depending on the indicator utilized. The more farm-specific characteristics are used by the GHG indicator; the lower is the bias of the modeled emissions. Results underline that an accurate emission calculation procedure should capture differences in energy intake, owing to milk production intensity as well as manure storage time. Despite the differences between indicator estimates, the deviation of modeled GHGs using detailed indicators in DAIRYDYN from on-farm measurements is relatively low (between -6.4% and 10.5%), compared with findings from the literature.

  19. Relationship Between Vehicle Size and Fatality Risk in Model Year 1985-93 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Fatality rates per million exposure years are computed by make, model and model year, : based on the crash experience of model year 1985-93 passenger cars and light trucks (pickups) vans : and sport utility vehicles) in the United States during calen...

  20. A Multidimensional Model of School Dropout from an 8-Year Longitudinal Study in a General High School Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, Laurier; Marcotte, Diane; Diallo, Thierno; Potvin, Pierre; Royer, Egide

    2013-01-01

    This study tests an empirical multidimensional model of school dropout, using data collected in the first year of an 8-year longitudinal study, with first year high school students aged 12-13 years. Structural equation modeling analyses show that five personal, family, and school latent factors together contribute to school dropout identified at…

  1. Educators' Year Long Reactions to the Implementation of a Response to Intervention (RTI) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanger, Dixie; Friedli, Corey; Brunken, Cindy; Snow, Pamela; Ritzman, Mitzi

    2012-01-01

    Mixed methods were used to explore the reactions of educators before and after implementing the Response to Intervention (RTI) model in secondary settings during a school year. Eighteen participants from six middle schools and four high schools collaborated on interdisciplinary teams that involved classroom teachers, speech-language pathologists…

  2. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12–22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12–22 years

  3. Analysis of the Impacts of City Year's Whole School Whole Child Model on Partner Schools' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Julie; Anderson, Leslie M.

    2015-01-01

    City Year is a learning organization committed to the rigorous evaluation of its "Whole School Whole Child" model, which trains and deploys teams of AmeriCorps members to low-performing, urban schools to empower more students to reach their full potential. A third-party study by Policy Studies Associates (PSA) examined the impact of…

  4. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part II : Appendix E and F

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  5. Implementing and Assessing a Flipped Classroom Model for First-Year Engineering Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saterbak, Ann; Volz, Tracy; Wettergreen, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Faculty at Rice University are creating instructional resources to support teaching first-year engineering design using a flipped classroom model. This implementation of flipped pedagogy is unusual because content-driven, lecture courses are usually targeted for flipping, not project-based design courses that already incorporate an abundance of…

  6. 3D Heart Model and 4D Flow MRI 20 Years after Spiral Arterial Switch Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievers, Hans-Hinrich; Kheradvar, Arash; Kramer, Hans-Heiner; Rickers, Carsten

    2016-12-01

    Case of a patient is presented here 20 years after spiral direct anastomosis of the great arteries in an arterial switch operation. Three-dimensional model of the heart combined with four-dimensional flow magnetic resonance imaging presents a novel comprehensive way to assess surgical results.

  7. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  8. Developing a Model for Identifying Students at Risk of Failure in a First Year Accounting Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Malcolm; Therry, Len; Whale, Jacqui

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on the process involved in attempting to build a predictive model capable of identifying students at risk of failure in a first year accounting unit in an Australian university. Identifying attributes that contribute to students being at risk can lead to the development of appropriate intervention strategies and support…

  9. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12-22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12-22 years

  10. Final-year diagnostic radiography students' perception of role models within the profession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Alinya; Lewis, Sarah; Robinson, John

    2008-01-01

    Within a clinical education setting, the value of role models and prescribed mentors can be seen as an important influence in shaping the student's future as a diagnostic radiographer. A study was undertaken to create a new understanding of how diagnostic radiography students perceive role models and professional behavior in the workforce. The study aimed to determine the impact of clinical education in determining modeling expectations, role model identification and attributes, and the integration of academic education and "hands-on" clinical practice in preparing diagnostic radiography students to enter the workplace. Thirteen final-year (third-year) diagnostic radiography students completed an hour-long interview regarding their experiences and perceptions of role models while on clinical placement. The key concepts that emerged illustrated that students gravitate toward radiographers who enjoy sharing practical experiences with students and are good communicators. Unique to diagnostic radiography, students made distinctions about the presence of role models in private versus public service delivery. This study gives insight to clinical educators in diagnostic radiography and wider allied health into how students perceive role models, interact with preceptors, and combine real-life experiences with formal learning.

  11. Physical aggression, compromised social support, and 10-year marital outcomes: Testing a relational spillover model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kieran T; Pasch, Lauri A; Lawrence, Erika; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to test a relational spillover model of physical aggression whereby physical aggression affects marital outcomes due to its effects on how spouses ask for and provide support to one another. Newlywed couples (n = 172) reported levels of physical aggression over the past year and engaged in interactions designed to elicit social support; marital adjustment, and stability were assessed periodically over the first 10 years of marriage. Multilevel modeling revealed that negative support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and 10-year marital adjustment levels whereas positive support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and divorce status. These findings emphasize the need to look beyond conflict when explaining how aggression affects relationships and when working with couples with a history of physical aggression who are seeking to improve their relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  13. Development, Validation and Parametric study of a 3-Year-Old Child Head Finite Element Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihai; Chen, Yue; Li, Haiyan; Ruan, ShiJie

    2015-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury caused by drop and traffic accidents is an important reason for children's death and disability. Recently, the computer finite element (FE) head model has been developed to investigate brain injury mechanism and biomechanical responses. Based on CT data of a healthy 3-year-old child head, the FE head model with detailed anatomical structure was developed. The deep brain structures such as white matter, gray matter, cerebral ventricle, hippocampus, were firstly created in this FE model. The FE model was validated by comparing the simulation results with that of cadaver experiments based on reconstructing the child and adult cadaver experiments. In addition, the effects of skull stiffness on the child head dynamic responses were further investigated. All the simulation results confirmed the good biofidelity of the FE model.

  14. A computational growth model for measuring dynamic cortical development in the first year of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jingxin; Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-10-01

    Human cerebral cortex develops extremely fast in the first year of life. Quantitative measurement of cortical development during this early stage plays an important role in revealing the relationship between cortical structural and high-level functional development. This paper presents a computational growth model to simulate the dynamic development of the cerebral cortex from birth to 1 year old by modeling the cerebral cortex as a deformable elastoplasticity surface driven via a growth model. To achieve a high accuracy, a guidance model is also incorporated to estimate the growth parameters and cortical shapes at later developmental stages. The proposed growth model has been applied to 10 healthy subjects with longitudinal brain MR images acquired at every 3 months from birth to 1 year old. The experimental results show that our proposed method can capture the dynamic developmental process of the cortex, with the average surface distance error smaller than 0.6 mm compared with the ground truth surfaces, and the results also show that 1) the curvedness and sharpness decrease from 2 weeks to 12 months and 2) the frontal lobe shows rapidly increasing cortical folding during this period, with relatively slower increase of the cortical folding in the occipital and parietal lobes.

  15. Incorporating Yearly Derived Winter Wheat Maps Into Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Roger, J.-C.; Vermote, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C.; Santamaría-Artigas, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.

  16. A participative evaluation model to refine academic support for first year Indigenous higher education students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn Rossingh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluative approach designed to provide a cycle of continuous improvement to retain Indigenous students during their first year of higher education.   The evaluation model operates in conjunction with a student academic enrichment program that is premised on valuing and respecting each student's background and life experience whilst building capability for learning success.  Data collected will be used for continual improvement of a newly developed innovative academic enrichment program that caters to the needs of Indigenous students.  The defining mechanisms of the model for measuring the first year experience are particularly meaningful for the Australian Centre For Indigenous Knowledges and Education as it moves into its inaugural year of operation in 2012. This preeminent time requires a flexible model to receive timely feedback in a reflexive environment where students guide the process as they continue their journey of accumulating knowledge and leave behind their contribution in shaping the landscape for future first year Indigenous students.  

  17. Development and validation of a 10-year-old child ligamentous cervical spine finite element model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Liqiang; Li, Guangyao; Mao, Haojie; Marek, Stanley; Yang, King H

    2013-12-01

    Although a number of finite element (FE) adult cervical spine models have been developed to understand the injury mechanisms of the neck in automotive related crash scenarios, there have been fewer efforts to develop a child neck model. In this study, a 10-year-old ligamentous cervical spine FE model was developed for application in the improvement of pediatric safety related to motor vehicle crashes. The model geometry was obtained from medical scans and meshed using a multi-block approach. Appropriate properties based on review of literature in conjunction with scaling were assigned to different parts of the model. Child tensile force-deformation data in three segments, Occipital-C2 (C0-C2), C4-C5 and C6-C7, were used to validate the cervical spine model and predict failure forces and displacements. Design of computer experiments was performed to determine failure properties for intervertebral discs and ligaments needed to set up the FE model. The model-predicted ultimate displacements and forces were within the experimental range. The cervical spine FE model was validated in flexion and extension against the child experimental data in three segments, C0-C2, C4-C5 and C6-C7. Other model predictions were found to be consistent with the experimental responses scaled from adult data. The whole cervical spine model was also validated in tension, flexion and extension against the child experimental data. This study provided methods for developing a child ligamentous cervical spine FE model and to predict soft tissue failures in tension.

  18. Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

  19. A year 2003 conceptual model for the U.S. telecommunications infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Reinert, Rhonda K.

    2003-12-01

    To model the telecommunications infrastructure and its role and robustness to shocks, we must characterize the business and engineering of telecommunications systems in the year 2003 and beyond. By analogy to environmental systems modeling, we seek to develop a 'conceptual model' for telecommunications. Here, the conceptual model is a list of high-level assumptions consistent with the economic and engineering architectures of telecommunications suppliers and customers, both today and in the near future. We describe the present engineering architectures of the most popular service offerings, and describe the supplier markets in some detail. We also develop a characterization of the customer base for telecommunications services and project its likely response to disruptions in service, base-lining such conjectures against observed behaviors during 9/11.

  20. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling, five-year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1996-08-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The project originated in October 1990 and was scheduled to run for four years. At that time, there was considerable emphasis on developing accurate predictions of the physical carryover of macroscopic particles of partially burnt black liquor and smelt droplets out of the furnace, since this was seen as the main cause of boiler plugging. This placed a major emphasis on gas flow patterns within the furnace and on the mass loss rates and swelling and shrinking rates of burning black liquor drops. As work proceeded on developing the recovery boiler furnace model, it became apparent that some recovery boilers encounter serious plugging problems even when physical carryover was minimal. After the original four-year period was completed, the project was extended to address this issue. The objective of the extended project was to improve the utility of the models by including the black liquor chemistry relevant to air emissions predictions and aerosol formation, and by developing the knowledge base and computational tools to relate furnace model outputs to fouling and plugging of the convective sections of the boilers. The work done to date includes CFD model development and validation, acquisition of information on black liquor combustion fundamentals and development of improved burning models, char bed model development, and model application and simplification.

  1. Forty years of 9Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined

  2. Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Rivera, Michael K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)

    2014-04-01

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  3. Multi-year Estimates of Methane Fluxes in Alaska from an Atmospheric Inverse Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. M.; Commane, R.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, C. E.; Michalak, A. M.; Dinardo, S. J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hartery, S.; Karion, A.; Lindaas, J.; Sweeney, C.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    We estimate methane fluxes across Alaska over a multi-year period using observations from a three-year aircraft campaign, the Carbon Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Existing estimates of methane from Alaska and other Arctic regions disagree in both magnitude and distribution, and before the CARVE campaign, atmospheric observations in the region were sparse. We combine these observations with an atmospheric particle trajectory model and a geostatistical inversion to estimate surface fluxes at the model grid scale. We first use this framework to estimate the spatial distribution of methane fluxes across the state. We find the largest fluxes in the south-east and North Slope regions of Alaska. This distribution is consistent with several estimates of wetland extent but contrasts with the distribution in most existing flux models. These flux models concentrate methane in warmer or more southerly regions of Alaska compared to the estimate presented here. This result suggests a discrepancy in how existing bottom-up models translate wetland area into methane fluxes across the state. We next use the inversion framework to explore inter-annual variability in regional-scale methane fluxes for 2012-2014. We examine the extent to which this variability correlates with weather or other environmental conditions. These results indicate the possible sensitivity of wetland fluxes to near-term variability in climate.

  4. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

    More than two year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm...

  5. Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, S. V.; Muldashev, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the

  6. Development of NIR calibration models to assess year-to-year variation in total non-structural carbohydrates in grasses using PLSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shetty, Nisha; Gislum, René; Jensen, Anne Mette Dahl

    2012-01-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used in combination with chemometrics to quantify total nonstructural carbohydrates (TNC) in grass samples in order to overcome year-to-year variation. A total of 1103 above-ground plant and root samples were collected from different field and pot experiments...... and with various experimental designs in the period from 2001 to 2005. A calibration model was developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The calibration model on a large data set spanning five years demonstrated that quantification of TNC using NIR spectroscopy was possible with an acceptable low...

  7. 40 CFR 80.46 - Measurement of reformulated gasoline fuel parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Method for Total Sulfur in Gaseous Fuels by Hydrogenolysis and Rateometric Colorimetry,” or (ii) ASTM... Total Sulfur in Gaseous Fuels by Hydrogenolysis and Rateometric Colorimetry. (2) [Reserved] [59 FR 7813...

  8. Method to improve lubricity of low-sulfur diesel and gasoline fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdemir, Ali

    2004-08-31

    A method for providing lubricity in fuels and lubricants includes adding a boron compound to a fuel or lubricant to provide a boron-containing fuel or lubricant. The fuel or lubricant may contain a boron compound at a concentration between about 30 ppm and about 3,000 ppm and a sulfur concentration of less than about 500 ppm. A method of powering an engine to minimize wear, by burning a fuel containing boron compounds. The boron compounds include compound that provide boric acid and/or BO.sub.3 ions or monomers to the fuel or lubricant.

  9. Ignition of alkane-rich FACE gasoline fuels and their surrogate mixtures

    KAUST Repository

    Sarathy, Mani; Kukkadapu, Goutham; Mehl, Marco; Wang, Weijing; Javed, Tamour; Park, Sungwoo; Oehlschlaeger, Matthew A.; Farooq, Aamir; Pitz, William J.; Sung, Chihjen

    2015-01-01

    Engines) gasoline test fuels and their corresponding PRF (primary reference fuel) blend in fundamental combustion experiments. Shock tube ignition delay times were measured in two separate facilities at pressures of 10, 20, and 40 bar, temperatures from

  10. Study of ethanol and gasoline fuel sprays using mie-scatter and schlieren imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchard, Lauren; Bittle, Joshua; Puzinauskas, Paul

    2016-11-01

    Many cars today are capable of running on both gasoline and ethanol, however it is not clear how well optimized the engines are for the multiple fuels. This experiment looks specifically at the fuel spray in a direct injection system. The length and angle of direct injection sprays were characterized and a comparison between ethanol and gasoline sprays was made. Fuels were tested using a modified diesel injector in a test chamber at variable ambient pressures and temperatures in order to simulate both high and low load combustion chamber conditions. Rainbow schlieren and mie-scatter imaging were both used to investigate the liquid and vapor portions of the sprays. The sprays behaved as expected with temperature and pressure changes. There was no noticeable fuel effect on the liquid portion of the spray (mie-scatter), though the gasoline vapor spray angles were wider than ethanol spray angles (possible a result of the distillation curves of the two fuels). Funding from NSF REU site Grant EEC 1358991 is greatly appreciated.

  11. The SIR model of Zika virus disease outbreak in Brazil at year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aik, Lim Eng; Kiang, Lam Chee; Hong, Tan Wei; Abu, Mohd Syafarudy

    2017-05-01

    This research study demonstrates a numerical model intended for comprehension the spread of the year 2015 Zika virus disease utilizing the standard SIR framework. In modeling virulent disease dynamics, it is important to explore whether the illness spread could accomplish a pandemic level or it could be eradicated. Information from the year 2015 Zika virus disease event is utilized and Brazil where the event began is considered in this research study. A three dimensional nonlinear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically utilizing the Euler's method in MS excel. It is appeared from the research study that, with health intercessions of public, the viable regenerative number can be decreased making it feasible for the event to cease to exist. It is additionally indicated numerically that the pandemic can just cease to exist when there are no new infected people in the populace.

  12. Modeling 100,000-year climate fluctuations in pre-Pleistocene time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Mengel, John G.; Short, David A.

    1992-01-01

    A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.

  13. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G

    2009-01-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10 8 t yr- 1 . A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  14. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

    2009-03-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  15. Terry Turbopump Analytical Modeling Efforts in Fiscal Year 2016 ? Progress Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Douglas; Ross, Kyle; Cardoni, Jeffrey N

    2018-04-01

    This document details the Fiscal Year 2016 modeling efforts to define the true operating limitations (margins) of the Terry turbopump systems used in the nuclear industry for Milestone 3 (full-scale component experiments) and Milestone 4 (Terry turbopump basic science experiments) experiments. The overall multinational-sponsored program creates the technical basis to: (1) reduce and defer additional utility costs, (2) simplify plant operations, and (3) provide a better understanding of the true margin which could reduce overall risk of operations.

  16. Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gras, Laure-Lise; Stockman, Isabelle; Brolin, Karin

    2017-01-01

    Emergency events can influence a child's kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs-MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models-were evaluated and compared with child volunteers' data during emergency events-braking and steering-with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control.

  17. Mercury Studies around the Mediterranean Sea Basin: Ten years of Measurements and Modeling results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sprovieri F.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Only a few years ago the presence of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM was believed to be almost exclusively the result of anthropogenic emissions and that sustained high RGM concentrations in the MBL were not considered likely. During the past ten years, an in-depth investigation was carried out in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL of the Mediterranean Sea to quantify and possibly explain spatial and temporal patterns of Hg-species concentrations. This paper provides an overview of modeling results and atmospheric measurements performed during several cruise campaigns performed aboard the Research Vessel (RV URANIA of the CNR over the Mediterranean sea basin. RGM concentrations have been modelled using a photochemical box model of the MBL and compared to measured data obtained during the research cruises. The comparison results supports the hypothesis that there are daytime mercury oxidation reactions occurring which have not yet been identified. Major findings of key studies carried out during ten years of ship-borne activities have been highlighted.

  18. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Shanthi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131 were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5% patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4% achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context

  19. Imitation of live and televised models by children one to three years of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, R B; Parke, R D; Kavanaugh, R D

    1977-01-01

    The results of these studies indicated that children younger than 1 year possess the cognitive capability of translating a perception of a novel action into their own behavior. However, the likelihood of imitation varied as a function of the nature of the target behavior. For example, actions requiring direct social commerce with the examiner were imitated less frequently than simple motor behaviors with objects, and reproducing gestures was more common than vocalizations. Moreover, imitation seemed to depend upon the child's level of mental development--the imitation of coordinated sequences, which requires the child to associate two external events, lagged behind the imitation of single-unit behaviors. There was no evidence for individual traits of general imitativeness, at least not until symbolic relations were involved. Live models were imitated more than TV models but only prior to age 3. While children under 2 years of age were not facile at imitating sequences of behaviors or delaying performance at short time after modeling, older toddlers readily and accurately imitated televised sequences even after a 24-hour delay. Whereas socially extroverted and fearless children imitated live models more than shy children, TV imitation was not related to temperament, home TV viewing habits, or parental education. Finally, the experience of being imitated may facilitate the social cognition of influencing another person.

  20. A Five-Year CMAQ PM2.5 Model Performance for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, J. L.; Pouliot, G.; Foley, K.; Rappold, A.; Pierce, T. E.

    2016-12-01

    Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. We will also review plume rise to see how it affects model bias and compare CMAQ current fire emissions input to an hourly dataset from FLAMBE.

  1. Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Paulo Batistella Pasini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

  2. Modeling the Office of Science ten year facilities plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Supinski, Bronis R de; Gamblin, Todd; Schulz, Martin

    2009-01-01

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  3. Crash-related mortality and model year: are newer vehicles safer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; McGwin, Gerald; Griffin, Russell L

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether occupants of newer vehicles experience a lower risk of crash-related mortality. The occurrence of death was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age ≥ 16 captured in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between 2000 and 2008. The associations between death and other occupant, vehicular and crash characteristics were also explored. Multiple logistic regression models for the prediction of death were built with model year as the independent variable and other characteristics linked to death as covariates. Imputation was used for missing data; weighted data was used. A total of 70,314 cases representing 30,514,372 weighted cases were available for analysis. Death occurred in 0.6% of the weighted population. Death was linked to age>60, male gender, higher BMI, near lateral direction of impact, high delta v, rollover, ejection and vehicle mismatch, and negatively associated with seatbelt use and rear and far lateral direction of impact. Mortality decreased with later model year groups (MY<94 0.78%, MY 94-97 0.53%, MY 98-04 0.51% and MY 05-08 0.38%, p=<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, MY 94-97, MY 98-04 and MY 05-08 showed decreased odds of death [OR 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.82 (0.70-0.97), and 0.67 (0.47-0.96), respectively] when compared to MY <94. Newer vehicles are associated with lower crash-related mortality. Their introduction into the vehicle fleet may explain, at least in part, the decrease in mortality rates in the past two decades.

  4. Evaluating Engagement Models for a Citizen Science Project: Lessons Learned From Four Years of Nature's Notebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, T. M.; Rosemartin, A.

    2012-12-01

    The success of citizen science programs hinges on their abilities to recruit and maintain active participants. The USA National Phenology Network's plant and animal phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook, has been active since 2009. This program engages thousands of citizen scientists in tracking plant and animal life cycle activity over the course of the year. We embarked on an evaluation of the various observer recruitment and retention tactics that we have employed over the ~4-year life of this program to better inform future outreach efforts specific to Nature's Notebook and for the broader citizen science community. Participants in Nature's Notebook may become engaged via one of three pathways: individuals may join Nature's Notebook directly, they may be invited to join through a USA-NPN partner organization, or they may engage through a group with local, site-based leadership. The level and type of recruitment tactics, training, and retention efforts that are employed varies markedly among these three models. In this evaluation, we compared the efficacy of these three engagement models using several metrics: number of individuals recruited, number of individuals that go on to submit at least one data point, retention rates over time, duration of activity, and quantity of data points submitted. We also qualitatively considered the differences in costs the three models require to support. In terms of recruitment, direct engagement yielded 20-100 times more registrants than other two models. In contrast, rates of participation were highest for site-based leadership (>35%, versus 20-30% for direct engagement; rates for partner organizations were highly variable due to small sample sizes). Individuals participating through partners with site-based leadership showed a much higher rate of retention (41% of participants remained active for two+ years) than those participating directly in Nature's Notebook (27% of participants remained active for two+ years

  5. A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Quiroga Lombard

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210 and 1470/17 (~86.5 years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

  6. "No-fault" compensation for victims of medical injuries. Ten years of implementing the French model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbot, Janine; Parizot, Isabelle; Winance, Myriam

    2014-02-01

    For decades and in many countries, the issue of compensation for victims of medical injuries has led to lively debates. In 2002, a law set up a new model for compensation in France - based on the creation of a "no fault" compensation scheme and of an out-of-court settlement mechanism. This is one of the most recent models to have been adopted in European countries. This article analyses the choices made by the law and discusses the key figures of its ten years of implementation. We conducted (1) a study of debates regarding compensation for victims of medical injuries in France; (2) a comparative analysis of the different models of compensation which had already been adopted in different countries; (3) a study of primary sources provided by the bodies in charge of the French new out-of-court settlement mechanism; and (4) a statistical analysis of the exhaustive list of 18,258 claims filed between 2003 and 2009. The article highlights the context which led to the adoption of the 2002 law on the quality of care and patients' rights. It analyses, from a comparative standpoint, the specificities of the new compensation model set up by the law. It shows how the opportunities for victims of medical injuries to be compensated had improved in France. Finally, we discuss the limits of the new model and what the next step might be to improve access to compensation for victims of medical injuries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2017-11-01

    The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

  8. Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

    1997-11-01

    The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

  9. On the Cutting Edge Professional Development Program - An effective model built from years of experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckner, M. Z.; Macdonald, H.; Beane, R. J.; Manduca, C. A.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Mogk, D. W.; Tewksbury, B. J.; Wiese, K.; Wysession, M. E.; Iverson, E. A. R.; Fox, S.

    2015-12-01

    The On the Cutting Edge (CE) program offers a successful model for designing and convening professional development events. Information about the model is now available on the CE website. The program model has evolved from more than 12 years of experience, building with input from strong leaders and participants. CE offers face-to-face, virtual, and hybrid events, and features a rich website that supports these professional development events as well as a growing community with a shared interest in effective geoscience teaching. Data from national surveys, participant feedback, and self-report data indicate the program's success in improving undergraduate geoscience education. Successes are also demonstrated in classroom observations using RTOP, indicating a significant difference in teaching style among participants and non-participants. A suite of web pages, with a planning timeline, provides guidance to those interested in designing and convening face-to-face or virtual events based on the CE model. The pages suggest ways to develop robust event goals and evaluation tools, how to choose strong leaders and recruit diverse participants, advice for designing effective event programs that utilize participant expertise, websites, and web tools, and suggestions for effectively disseminating event results and producing useful products. The CE model has been successfully transferred to projects that vary in scale and discipline. Best practices from the CE model include (1) thinking of the workshop as shared enterprise among conveners and participants; (2) incorporating conveners and participants who bring diverse viewpoints and approaches; (3) promoting structured discussions that utilize participants' expertise; (4) emphasizing practical strategies to effect change; and (5) using the website as a platform to prepare for the workshop, share ideas, and problem-solve challenges. Learn more about how to utilize this model for your project at:serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/workshops/convene

  10. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  11. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. PMID:22129456

  12. Resuscitation outcomes comparing year 2000 with year 2005 ALS guidelines in a pig model of cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xanthos, Theodoros; Tsirikos-Karapanos, Nikolas; Papadimitriou, Dimitrios; Vlachos, Ioannis S; Tsiftsi, Katerina; Ekmektzoglou, Konstantinos A; Papadimitriou, Lila

    2007-06-01

    Ventricular fibrillation remains the leading cause of death in western societies. International organizations publish guidelines to follow in case of cardiac arrest. The aim of the present study is to assess whether the newly published guidelines record similar resuscitation success with the 2000 Advanced Life Support Guidelines on Resuscitation in a swine model of cardiac arrest. Nineteen landrace/large white pigs were used. Ventricular fibrillation was induced with the use of a transvenous pacing wire inserted into the right ventricle. The animals were randomized into two groups. In Group A, 10 animals were resuscitated using the 2000 guidelines, whereas in Group B, 9 animals were resuscitated using the 2005 guidelines. Both algorithms recorded similar successful resuscitation rates, as 60% of the animals in Group A and 44.5% in Group B were successfully resuscitated. However, animals in Group A restored a rhythm, compatible with a pulse, quicker than those in Group B (p=0.002). Coronary perfusion pressure (CPP) was not adversely affected by three defibrillation attempts in Group A. Both algorithms' resulted in comparable resuscitation success, however, guidelines 2000 resulted in faster resuscitation times. These preliminary results merit further investigation.

  13. Estrogen receptor testing and 10-year mortality from breast cancer: A model for determining testing strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Naugler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy in the treatment of estrogen receptor (ER expressing breast carcinomas represents a major advance in personalized cancer treatment. Because there is no benefit (and indeed there is increased morbidity and mortality associated with the use of tamoxifen therapy in ER-negative breast cancer, its use is restricted to women with ER expressing cancers. However, correctly classifying cancers as ER positive or negative has been challenging given the high reported false negative test rates for ER expression in surgical specimens. In this paper I model practice recommendations using published information from clinical trials to address the question of whether there is a false negative test rate above which it is more efficacious to forgo ER testing and instead treat all patients with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. Methods: I used data from randomized clinical trials to model two different hypothetical treatment strategies: (1 the current strategy of treating only ER positive women with tamoxifen and (2 an alternative strategy where all women are treated with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. The variables used in the model are literature-derived survival rates of the different combinations of ER positivity and treatment with tamoxifen, varying true ER positivity rates and varying false negative ER testing rates. The outcome variable was hypothetical 10-year survival. Results: The model predicted that there will be a range of true ER rates and false negative test rates above which it would be more efficacious to treat all women with breast cancer with tamoxifen and forgo ER testing. This situation occurred with high true positive ER rates and false negative ER test rates in the range of 20-30%. Conclusions: It is hoped that this model will provide an example of the potential importance of diagnostic error on clinical outcomes and furthermore will give an example of how the effect of that

  14. [A new working shift model for anesthesiologists: an analysis 3 years after implementation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maschmann, J; Holderried, M; Blumenstock, G; Rieger, M A; Bamberg, M; Rosenberger, P; Wagner, T

    2012-11-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy, appropriateness and cost-effectiveness of a new working shift model for anesthesiologists complying with the European working time directive (EWTD) at the University Hospital of Tübingen (UKT), Germany 3 years after implementation Applying the standards of the EWTD is challenging for university hospitals as doctors must comply with the challenge of combining patient care, research and teaching. So far there have been no data available for German university hospitals on how these requirements can be met. As the department of anesthesiology is also a service-providing department it is essential not to increase staffing costs with a new shift model. In 2007 a new working shift model for the department of anesthesiology was designed and introduced in 2008. Shift planning and documentation of working hours were implemented electronically. The calculated number of doctors to run this model was 87.6 full time equivalents (FTE). For 2009 and 2010 the compliance with the EWTD parameters was checked for 1) average weekly working time limit (AWWTL) and 2) compliance to the maximum daily working time limit of 10 h (10 h DWTL). Furthermore, staffing costs for doctors in 2010 were compared to 2007. To check for the time spent in patient care the period of anesthetic attendance (PAA) was chosen, i.e. the total time of patient contact by anesthesiology staff. Data were analyzed descriptively for AWWTL and for 10 h DWTL. FTE, staff costs and PAA were evaluated by one-way ANOVA. The new shift model allowed 84.4 % of all doctors to comply with the individual AWWT limits of 54 h and 48 h in 2009 (81/96) and 76.0 % in 2010 (79/104). In 2009 61.5 % of anesthesiologists voted for opt-out (59/96) and 53.8 % did so in 2010 (56/104). The 10 h DWTL was respected by 84.0 % in 2009 and by 85.9 % in 2010. The mean number of anesthesiologists rose significantly from 78.4 FTE in 2007 to 82.5 FTE in 2009 and 84.6 FTE in 2010 (p

  15. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore

  16. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigg, David W.; Steuhm, Devin A.

    2011-01-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V and V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V and V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V and V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose

  17. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Hamre, Børge

    2017-09-01

    Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400-900 nm) were found to be on average 0.15-0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39-0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice). This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL) increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  18. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Taskjelle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400–900 nm were found to be on average 0.15–0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39–0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice. This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  19. A 40-year accumulation dataset for Adelie Land, Antarctica and its application for model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agosta, Cecile; Favier, Vincent [UJF-Grenoble 1 / CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Genthon, Christophe; Gallee, Hubert; Krinner, Gerhard [CNRS / UJF-Grenoble 1, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Lenaerts, Jan T.M.; Broeke, Michiel R. van den [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362 mm water equivalent a{sup -1}. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40 years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27-125 km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation. (orig.)

  20. Transition in, Transition out: a sustainable model to engage first year students in learning. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chester

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Peer mentoring, presented as an inclusive teaching approach, embedded in the curriculum, has been successfully implemented to support first year student learning. Developing sustainable and scalable models for large first year cohorts, however, provides a challenge. The Transition in, Transition out model is a sustainable peer mentoring model supporting the transition of both first and final year students. The model has been implemented in two Australian psychology programs, one face-to-face and one delivered online. The focus in this Practice Report will be on the outcome data for on-campus first year student at one university. Participants were 231 first year students (166 females and 65 males. Results suggest positive changes in academic performance and learning approaches as well as positive endorsement of the model.

  1. A statistical skull geometry model for children 0-3 years old.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhigang Li

    Full Text Available Head injury is the leading cause of fatality and long-term disability for children. Pediatric heads change rapidly in both size and shape during growth, especially for children under 3 years old (YO. To accurately assess the head injury risks for children, it is necessary to understand the geometry of the pediatric head and how morphologic features influence injury causation within the 0-3 YO population. In this study, head CT scans from fifty-six 0-3 YO children were used to develop a statistical model of pediatric skull geometry. Geometric features important for injury prediction, including skull size and shape, skull thickness and suture width, along with their variations among the sample population, were quantified through a series of image and statistical analyses. The size and shape of the pediatric skull change significantly with age and head circumference. The skull thickness and suture width vary with age, head circumference and location, which will have important effects on skull stiffness and injury prediction. The statistical geometry model developed in this study can provide a geometrical basis for future development of child anthropomorphic test devices and pediatric head finite element models.

  2. A statistical skull geometry model for children 0-3 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhigang; Park, Byoung-Keon; Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Jinhuan; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hoff, Carrie N; Hu, Jingwen

    2015-01-01

    Head injury is the leading cause of fatality and long-term disability for children. Pediatric heads change rapidly in both size and shape during growth, especially for children under 3 years old (YO). To accurately assess the head injury risks for children, it is necessary to understand the geometry of the pediatric head and how morphologic features influence injury causation within the 0-3 YO population. In this study, head CT scans from fifty-six 0-3 YO children were used to develop a statistical model of pediatric skull geometry. Geometric features important for injury prediction, including skull size and shape, skull thickness and suture width, along with their variations among the sample population, were quantified through a series of image and statistical analyses. The size and shape of the pediatric skull change significantly with age and head circumference. The skull thickness and suture width vary with age, head circumference and location, which will have important effects on skull stiffness and injury prediction. The statistical geometry model developed in this study can provide a geometrical basis for future development of child anthropomorphic test devices and pediatric head finite element models.

  3. Life cycle models of conventional and alternative-fueled automobiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maclean, Heather Louise

    This thesis reports life cycle inventories of internal combustion engine automobiles with feasible near term fuel/engine combinations. These combinations include unleaded gasoline, California Phase 2 Reformulated Gasoline, alcohol and gasoline blends (85 percent methanol or ethanol combined with 15 percent gasoline), and compressed natural gas in spark ignition direct and indirect injection engines. Additionally, I consider neat methanol and neat ethanol in spark ignition direct injection engines and diesel fuel in compression ignition direct and indirect injection engines. I investigate the potential of the above options to have a lower environmental impact than conventional gasoline-fueled automobiles, while still retaining comparable pricing and consumer benefits. More broadly, the objective is to assess whether the use of any of the alternative systems will help to lead to the goal of a more sustainable personal transportation system. The principal tool is the Economic Input-Output Life Cycle Analysis model which includes inventories of economic data, environmental discharges, and resource use. I develop a life cycle assessment framework to assemble the array of data generated by the model into three aggregate assessment parameters; economics, externalities, and vehicle attributes. The first step is to develop a set of 'comparable cars' with the alternative fuel/engine combinations, based on characteristics of a conventional 1998 gasoline-fueled Ford Taurus sedan, the baseline vehicle for the analyses. I calculate the assessment parameters assuming that these comparable cars can attain the potential thermal efficiencies estimated by experts for each fuel/engine combination. To a first approximation, there are no significant differences in the assessment parameters for the vehicle manufacture, service, fixed costs, and the end-of-life for any of the options. However, there are differences in the vehicle operation life cycle components and the state of technology

  4. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  5. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  6. Renewables in the grid. Modeling the German power market of the year 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boldt, Jenny; Hankel, Lisa; Laurisch, Lilian Charlotte; Lutterbeck, Felix; Oei, Pao-Yu; Sander, Aram; Schroeder, Andreas; Schweter, Helena; Sommer, Philipp; Sulerz, Jasmin

    2012-01-01

    Renewable energy in Germany is on the rise. Recent changes in legislature, following the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, have accelerated the shift towards a renewable and sustainable energy supply. Offshore wind from the North and Baltic Sea is expected to reach nearly 30 GW by 2030, while the adequacy of the electricity grid to withstand this impact is already threatened today. Since the bulk of renewable energy comes from the North and East of Germany, while demand is far greater in the South and West, transmission infrastructure is poised to become the bottleneck of the German power market transformation. This study investigates where congestion is likely to occur along the grid, and proposes different approaches to meeting the requirements of an increasing share of renewable energy generation. A considerable amount of data for the year 2030, including, but not limited to, conventional generation, renewable generation, transmission and demand serves as the input for the welfare-maximizing DC load flow model. It consists of 40 nodes (18 within Germany, as well as 22 European countries, each modeled by a single node), 232 AC lines and 35 DC lines. The model is solved with the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for four representative weeks in 2030, one for each season of the year. We investigate three different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Strategic South Scenario and the Direct Current (DC) Highway Scenario. - The Reference Scenario is based on the assumption that 63 percent of renewable energy power will be generated in Northern and Eastern Germany by 2030, while 62 percent of load will be located in Southern and Western Germany. This situation requires a substantial expansion of transmission infrastructure from north to south. - In the Strategic South Scenario, we explore the possibility of strategically placing renewable and conventional generation capacities to Southern and Western regions in order to make major transmission upgrades redundant

  7. Renewables in the grid. Modeling the German power market of the year 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boldt, Jenny; Hankel, Lisa; Laurisch, Lilian Charlotte; Lutterbeck, Felix; Oei, Pao-Yu; Sander, Aram; Schroeder, Andreas; Schweter, Helena; Sommer, Philipp; Sulerz, Jasmin

    2012-02-15

    Renewable energy in Germany is on the rise. Recent changes in legislature, following the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, have accelerated the shift towards a renewable and sustainable energy supply. Offshore wind from the North and Baltic Sea is expected to reach nearly 30 GW by 2030, while the adequacy of the electricity grid to withstand this impact is already threatened today. Since the bulk of renewable energy comes from the North and East of Germany, while demand is far greater in the South and West, transmission infrastructure is poised to become the bottleneck of the German power market transformation. This study investigates where congestion is likely to occur along the grid, and proposes different approaches to meeting the requirements of an increasing share of renewable energy generation. A considerable amount of data for the year 2030, including, but not limited to, conventional generation, renewable generation, transmission and demand serves as the input for the welfare-maximizing DC load flow model. It consists of 40 nodes (18 within Germany, as well as 22 European countries, each modeled by a single node), 232 AC lines and 35 DC lines. The model is solved with the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for four representative weeks in 2030, one for each season of the year. We investigate three different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Strategic South Scenario and the Direct Current (DC) Highway Scenario. - The Reference Scenario is based on the assumption that 63 percent of renewable energy power will be generated in Northern and Eastern Germany by 2030, while 62 percent of load will be located in Southern and Western Germany. This situation requires a substantial expansion of transmission infrastructure from north to south. - In the Strategic South Scenario, we explore the possibility of strategically placing renewable and conventional generation capacities to Southern and Western regions in order to make major transmission upgrades redundant

  8. Thirty years of progress in applications and modeling of ocean ambient noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siderius, Martin; Buckingham, Michael J.

    2012-11-01

    Ambient noise in the ocean is a stochastic process, which traditionally was considered to be a nuisance, since it reduced the detectability of sonar signals of interest. However, over the last thirty years, it has come to be recognized that the ambient noise itself contains useful information about the ocean and ocean processes. To extract the information, various inversion procedures have been developed, based upon which a number of practical applications of the ambient noise have evolved. Since naturally generated ambient noise is always present in the ocean, it has the advantage of being non-invasive and non-damaging to marine life, including marine mammals. In this article, a summary of the commonly encountered ambient noise models is offered, along with the associated inversion procedures, and some of the more recent applications of the ambient noise are highlighted.

  9. Cause-effect analysis: improvement of a first year engineering students' calculus teaching model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of mathematics, factors that the tertiary sector has no control over. The analysis also indicates the undesirable issues that are at the root of impeding success in the calculus module. Most important is that students are not encouraged to become independent thinkers from an early age. This triggers problems in follow-up courses where students are expected to have learned to deal with the work load and understanding of certain concepts. A new model was designed to lessen the impact of these undesirable issues.

  10. A model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Beth A; Porter, Andrea L; Shawl, Lauren; Motl Moroney, Susannah E

    2012-06-18

    To design, integrate, and assess the effectiveness of an introductory pharmacy practice experience intended to redefine first-year student pharmacists' views on aging and medication use through their work with a healthy, community-based older-adult population. All students (N = 273) completed live skills training in an 8-hour boot camp provided during orientation week. Teams were assigned an independently living senior partner, completed 10 visits and reflections, and documented health-related information using an electronic portfolio (e-portfolio). As determined by pre- and post-experience survey instruments, students gained significant confidence in 7 skill areas related to communication, medication interviews, involving the partner in health care, and applying patient-care skills. Student reflections, in-class presentations, and e-portfolios documented that personal attitudes toward seniors changed over time. Senior partners enjoyed mentoring and interacting with students and many experienced health improvements as a result of the interaction. The model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults improved students' skills and fostered their connections to pharmacist roles and growth as person-centered providers.

  11. The 2-MEV model: Constancy of adolescent environmental values within an 8-year time frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, F. X.; Johnson, B.; Buxner, S.; Felix, L.

    2015-08-01

    The 2-MEV model is a widely used tool to monitor children's environmental perception by scoring individual values. Although the scale's validity has been confirmed repeatedly and independently as well as the scale is in usage within more than two dozen language units all over the world, longitudinal properties still need clarification. The purpose of the present study therefore was to validate the 2-MEV scale based on a large data basis of 10,676 children collected over an eight-year period. Cohorts of three different US states contributed to the sample by responding to a paper-and-pencil questionnaire within their pre-test initiatives in the context of field center programs. Since we used only the pre-program 2-MEV scale results (which is before participation in education programs), the data were clearly unspoiled by any follow-up interventions. The purpose of analysis was fourfold: First, to test and confirm the hypothesized factorized structure for the large data set and for the subsample of each of the three states. Second, to analyze the scoring pattern across the eight years' time range for both preservation and utilitarian preferences. Third, to investigate any age effects in the extracted factors. Finally, to extract suitable recommendations for educational implementation efforts.

  12. The First 24 Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary, 20-22 September 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, László

    2013-11-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the fifth workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on the banks of the Danube in the Budapest suburbs in the autumn of 2012. Over fifty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community [1], producing an average of over 90 papers and 1200 citations per year over the last five years. It is particularly suitable for the study of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, as well as the structural analysis of disordered crystalline systems. The principal experimental data that are modelled are obtained from total x-ray or neutron scattering experiments, using the reciprocal space structure factor and/or the real space pair distribution function (PDF). Additional data might be included from extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS), Bragg peak intensities or indeed any measured data that can be calculated from a three-dimensional atomistic model. It is this use of total scattering (diffuse and Bragg), rather than just the Bragg peak intensities more commonly used for crystalline structure analysis, which enables RMC modelling to probe the often important deviations from the average crystal structure, to probe the structures of poorly crystalline or nanocrystalline materials, and the local structures of non-crystalline materials where only diffuse scattering is observed. This flexibility across various condensed matter structure-types has made the RMC method very attractive in a wide range of disciplines, as borne out in the contents of this special issue. It is however important to point out that since

  13. Victimization, Suicidal Ideation, and Alcohol Use From Age 13 to 15 Years: Support for the Self-Medication Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschall-Lévesque, Shawn; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Parent, Sophie; Renaud, Johanne; Vitaro, Frank; Boivin, Michel; Tremblay, Richard E; Séguin, Jean R

    2017-04-01

    Recent years have seen increased coverage of adolescent victimization and suicide. Both adolescent peer victimization and substance use have been associated with suicidal ideation, with evidence suggesting that all three factors are interrelated. There are at least four models which can explain the associations between these factors (i.e., self-medication, secondary mental disorder, bidirectional, and common factor). However, none of them is being empirically supported as the dominant model because few longitudinal studies have explored the association between these factors. The present study compared longitudinal paths of all four models simultaneously using a cross-lagged model. This was done using self-reported measures of peer victimization, suicidal ideation, and alcohol use at age 13, 14, and 15 years in a longitudinal sample of 238 adolescents. All three variables were moderately stable across time. Significant cross-lagged associations were found, showing that frequent peer victimization at age 13 years was associated with higher odds of having suicidal ideation at age 14 years (odds ratio, 1.82; p suicidal ideation at age 14 years was significantly associated with higher alcohol use frequency at age 15 years (β = .13; p suicidal ideation and alcohol use over 1 year, supporting the self-medication model. Clarifying the empirical basis of these underlying models could allow for earlier prevention strategies, by targeting the risk factor that appears the earliest in the model. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. An appreciation of Bruce and Young's (1986) serial stage model of face naming after 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanley, J Richard

    2011-11-01

    The current status of Bruce and Young's (1986) serial model of face naming is discussed 25 years after its original publication. In the first part of the paper, evidence for and against the serial model is reviewed. It is argued that there is no compelling reason why we should abandon Bruce and Young's claim that recall of a name is contingent upon prior retrieval of semantic information about the person. The current status of the claim that people's names are more difficult to recall than the names of objects is then evaluated. Finally, an account of the anatomical location in the brain of Bruce and Young's three processing stages (face familiarity, retrieval of semantic information, retrieval of names) is suggested. In particular, there is evidence that biographical knowledge about familiar people is stored in the right anterior temporal lobes (ATL) and that the left temporal pole (TP) is heavily involved in retrieval of the names of familiar people. The issue of whether these brain areas play a similar role in object processing is also discussed. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  16. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  17. 40 years of Bio-Psycho-Social model: what’s new?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kholmogorova A.B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bio-Psycho-Social Model, proposed by George Engel in 1977, was recognized as a turning point in the praxis of medical diagnosis and treatments. Bio-Psycho-Social Model should be seen in a historical context as bucking against the trend of biological reductionism. Social Neuroscience has been formed ten years. Social neuroscience aims to investigate the biological systems that underlie people’s thoughts, feelings and actions in light of the social context in which they operate. Social neuroscience has captured the interest of anthropologists, psychiatrists, psychologists, and experts in other disciplines, as well as the general public who more and more draw upon the insights and methods of social neuroscience to explain, predict and change social behavior. An analysis of the current situation in neurosciences shows that new methods of instrumental brain research do not exclude biological reductionism. The authors qualify the situation in modern studies of social neuroscience as a methodological crisis associated with the prevalence of reductionist approaches that ignore the uniqueness of the human psyche. He substantiates the heuristic provisions of the cultural and historical development of Vygotsky’s psyche theory to overcome any contradictions

  18. Zinc and cadmium mobility in a 5-year-old dredged sediment deposit: experiments and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lions, J. [BRGM, Orleans (France). Water Div.; Centre National de Recherche sur les Sites et Sols Pollues, Douai (France); Lee, J. van der [Ecole des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau (France). Geosciences - Reactive Hydrodynamics Group; Guerin, V.; Bataillard, P. [BRGM, Orleans (France). Environment and Process Div.; Centre National de Recherche sur les Sites et Sols Pollues, Douai (France); Laboudigue, A. [Ecole des Mines de Douai (France). Environmental and Civil Engineering; Centre National de Recherche sur les Sites et Sols Pollues, Douai (France)

    2007-08-15

    Background. Landfill deposits of contaminated, dredged sediments are subject to chemical alteration and especially to oxidation processes. Accordingly, sulphides are gradually oxidized leading to the formation of secondary phases and associated metals could become mobile and redistributed among the sediment components, such as carbonates, clay and freshly precipitated (hydr)oxides. Once mobilised, metals could represent a hazard for the environment and especially for drinking water supply facilities. Methods. In the present study, leaching experiments have been carried out on a dredged sediment to study metal mobilisation after 5 years of field aging. First, kinetic batch tests allowed one to evaluate the impact of solid-liquid contact time and to determine the kinetic parameters. Secondly, two types of dynamic experiments have been conducted: dynamic flush reactor and column leach test to evaluate the impact of solution renewing by excluding or not excluding the transport processes, respectively. In order to evaluate the impact of calcium on the metal mobilisation, the column leaching test is conducted with pure water and Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2} solution, at the beginning and at the end of the injection, respectively. Geochemical and reactive transport modelling of the experiments was performed using the geochemical code CHESS and the reactive transport model HYTEC. Results and Discussion. The studied sediment is complex with numerous reactive phases such as sulphides, (hydr)oxides, organic matter, phyllosilicates. All leaching tests highlight that zinc and cadmium are mobilised in significant concentrations and lead remains insoluble. A conceptual geochemical model of the sediment has been built to allow simulations of the whole experiments, based on a single, coherent phase description and parameter set. Simulations of the batch, flush and column experiments were performed taking into account the major reaction-controlling mechanisms including, among others, p

  19. A 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, J.S. von [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Kharin, V [Canadian Climate Centre, Victoria, BC (Canada); Cubasch, U [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Hegerl, G C [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Schriever, D [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Storch, H von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Zorita, E [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1996-05-01

    A 1260-year integration generated by the ECHAM1/LSG coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is analyzed in this paper. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of the model atmosphere and the model ocean, and on the variations of the final quasi-stationary atmosphere-ocean system. The evolution of the coupled system is affected by the globally integrated fluxes of heat and fresh water, the coupling shock induced by different types of fluxes prior to and after the coupling, and the insufficient spin-up of the deep ocean prior to the coupling. It is suggested that the flux correction with its unsatisfactory formulation over sea ice areas does not play the crucial role in causing the initial drift of the system. The main question concerning the atmospheric variations is whether the spatial structures of variations on short time scales are similar to those on long time scales. The answer to this question is yes. The questions concerning the oceanic variations are what are their dominant modes and to what extent are variations of different parts of the oceanic circulation related to each other. It is shown that the dominant oceanic variations are located in the North Pacific and at the southern flank of the mean position of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the areas where deep water from three oceans meets the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. A correlation analysis indicates further that an anomalous outflow from (inflow into) the deep Atlantic is related to an anomalous outflow from (inflow into) the deep Indian Ocean and an anomalous eastward (westward) flow along the Antarctic coast. (orig.)

  20. Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not

  1. Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  3. [Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Fei; Dai, Xin-hua; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Kui; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2016-02-01

    To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10 - 30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian's classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H (P Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

  4. Trajectories of Heroin Addiction: Growth Mixture Modeling Results Based on a 33-Year Follow-Up Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Huang, David; Chou, Chih-Ping; Anglin, M. Douglas

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates trajectories of heroin use and subsequent consequences in a sample of 471 male heroin addicts who were admitted to the California Civil Addict Program in 1964-1965 and followed over 33 years. Applying a two-part growth mixture modeling strategy to heroin use level during the first 16 years of the addiction careers since…

  5. Factor structure of a conceptual model of oral health tested among 65-year olds in Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrøm, Anne Nordrehaug; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven

    2010-04-01

    No studies have tested oral health-related quality of life models in dentate older adults across different populations. To test the factor structure of oral health outcomes within Gilbert's conceptual model among 65-year olds in Sweden and Norway. It was hypothesized that responses to 14 observed indicators could be explained by three correlated factors, symptom status, functional limitations and oral disadvantages, that each observed oral health indicator would associate more strongly with the factor it is supposed to measure than with competing factors and that the proposed 3-factor structure would possess satisfactory cross-national stability with 65-year olds in Norway and Sweden. In 2007, 6078 Swedish- and 4062 Norwegian adults borne in 1942 completed mailed questionnaires including oral symptoms, functional limitations and the eight item Oral Impacts on Daily Performances inventory. Model generation analysis was restricted to the Norwegian study group and the model achieved was tested without modifications in Swedish 65-year olds. A modified 3-factor solution with cross-loadings, improved the fit to the data compared with a 2-factor- and the initially proposed 3-factor model among the Norwegian [comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.97] and Swedish (CFI = 0.98) participants. All factor loadings for the modified 3-factor model were in the expected direction and were statistically significant at CR > 1. Multiple group confirmatory factor analyses, with Norwegian and Swedish data simultaneously revealed acceptable fit for the unconstrained model (CFI = 0.97), whereas unconstrained and constrained models were statistically significant different in nested model comparison. Within construct validity of Gilbert's model was supported with Norwegian and Swedish 65-year olds, indicating that the 14-item questionnaire reflected three constructs; symptom status, functional limitation and oral disadvantage. Measurement invariance was confirmed at the level of factor structure

  6. Hydrogeochemical transport modeling of 24 years of Rhine water infiltration in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Breukelen, B.M.; Appelo, C.A.J.; Olsthoorn, T.N.

    1998-01-01

    Water quality changes were modelled along a flowpath in a plume of artificially recharged, pretreated Rhine water in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply, after 24 years of infiltration. The hydrogeochemical transport model PHREEQC was extended with dispersion/diffusion and kinetics for selected

  7. Multi-model ensemble simulations of troposheric NO2 compared with GOME retrievals for the year 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noije, van T.P.C.; Eskes, H.J.; Dentener, F.J.; Stevenson, D.S.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Boersma, K.F.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Drevet, J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Krol, M.C.; Lamarque, J.F.; Lawrence, M.G.; Martin, R.V.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Richter, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Roozendael, van M.

    2006-01-01

    We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions

  8. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

    2017-01-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

  9. Paper for Publication in IOP: Conference Series Leachate Treatment using three Years Aged Lysimetric Bioreactor Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartono, Djoko M.; Andari Kristanto, Gabriel; Gusniani Sofian, Irma; Fauzan, Ahmad; Mahdiana, Ghanis

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted as a response to address the problem of land availability for Cipayung landfill that no longer able to accommodate waste generation Depok City and to protect water pollution in receiving water body. Law No. 8/2008 explained that local governments and cities are required to create a sanitary landfill as a final waste processing system to replace open dumping that had been done by almost all the final processing of waste in cities in Indonesia. Sanitary landfill is the final waste processing system that works best and is environmentally friendly. The sanitary landfill will generate leachate. Leachate is the result of precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, water infiltration into the waste, and also including the water contained in the waste. The purpose of this study was to determine the utilization of leachate generated by three years aged reactor.This study use a modeling tools as bioreactor landfill tank or so called lysimetric, that made of the polymer material that susceptible to high heat and pressure. This bioreactor landfill tank has a diameter of 0.83 m, with a surface area of 0.54 m2 and a height of 2.02 m, with the examination duration of 115 days. This tank consists of several layer, such as sand layer, solid waste layer, water layer and piping system. These layer has 3 year aged. The In this research, leachate recirculation in bioreactor landfills was conducted with waste layered loading systems with percolation system. This research has been conducted since the beginning of 2016, sampling, field measurement and analysis of leachate and waste quality carried out for approximately 115 days of field measurements.Several parameter were measured such as pH, BOD, COD, nitrate, nitrite and TSS. From the analysis of the leachate quality parameters of pH, BOD, COD, nitrite, TSS, showed a reduction in the concentration of the three reactors. The concentration of parameters measured at the initial stage until the final stage, showed a

  10. Twenty-five years of modeling multiphase flow and heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyczkowski, R.W.

    1999-01-01

    This presentation will cover some of the highlights of multiphase modeling in collaboration with Professor Dimitri Gidaspow (DG) over the last roughly twenty-five years. It all started in 1972 in Idaho Falls with Charles Solbrig, who planned and initiated a project for the former USAEC to develop a computer code to replace RELAP4 to analyze the loss of coolant accident (LOCA). DG spent his sabbatical on the project in 1973. One highlight was the discovery of complex characteristics, the implications of which are still pondered by some. Fluidization research began in 1978 when the author collaboratively developed a step-by-step building-block approach to understanding the hydrodynamics of fluidized beds, an approach closely coupled to validation experiments. A grant from the USDOE to study solids circulation around a jet in a fluidized bed was awarded to DG in 1978. Following that, grants from GRI, NSF, and a contract from Westinghouse Electric Corp. allowed the early work to continue. Progress was slow since computer costs were high. Subsequent continuing support from the USDOE, NSF, EPRI, and industry has allowed research to continue, as has his collaboration. A highlight of this collaboration was the development of the monolayer energy dissipation (MED) erosion model. Multiphase flow and fluidization theory took quantum leaps with the publication of DG's Multiphase Flow and Fluidization: Continuum and Kinetic Theory Descriptions (MFF), Academic Press, San Diego (1994), for which there is essentially no competition. Only the late Professor S.L. Soo's Particulates and Continuum: Multiphase Fluid Dynamics, Hemisphere Publishing Corp., New York (1989), a textbook version of the classic monograph Multiphase Fluid Dynamics, Science Press, Beijing, China (1990), comes close. In MFF, the kinetic theory of granular flow has evolved as a potentially viable adjunct to the continuum multiphase theory, of which fluidization is one important manifestation. It must be

  11. Assessing allometric models to predict vegetative growth of mango (Mangifera indica; Anacardiaceae) at the current-year branch scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Frédéric; Lauri, Pierre-Éric

    2012-03-01

    Accurate and reliable predictive models are necessary to estimate nondestructively key variables for plant growth studies such as leaf area and leaf, stem, and total biomass. Predictive models are lacking at the current-year branch scale despite the importance of this scale in plant science. We calibrated allometric models to estimate leaf area and stem and branch (leaves + stem) mass of current-year branches, i.e., branches several months old studied at the end of the vegetative growth season, of four mango cultivars on the basis of their basal cross-sectional area. The effects of year, site, and cultivar were tested. Models were validated with independent data and prediction accuracy was evaluated with the appropriate statistics. Models revealed a positive allometry between dependent and independent variables, whose y-intercept but not the slope, was affected by the cultivar. The effects of year and site were negligible. For each branch characteristic, cultivar-specific models were more accurate than common models built with pooled data from the four cultivars. Prediction quality was satisfactory but with data dispersion around the models, particularly for large values. Leaf area and stem and branch mass of mango current-year branches could be satisfactorily estimated on the basis of branch basal cross-sectional area with cultivar-specific allometric models. The results suggested that, in addition to the heteroscedastic behavior of the variables studied, model accuracy was probably related to the functional plasticity of branches in relation to the light environment and/or to the number of growth units composing the branches.

  12. To Humbly Go: Guarding Against Perpetuating Models of Colonization in the 100-Year Starship Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, W. R.

    Past patterns of exploration, colonization and exploitation on Earth continue to provide the predominant paradigms that guide many space programs. Any project of crewed space exploration, especially of the magnitude envisioned by the 100-Year Starship Study, must guard against the hubris that may emerge among planners, crew, and others associated with the project, including those industries and bureaucracies that will emerge from the effort. Maintaining a non-exploitative approach may be difficult in consideration of the century of preparatory research and development and the likely multigenerational nature of the voyage itself. Starting now with mission dreamers and planners, the purpose of the voyage must be cast as one of respectful learning and humble discovery, not of conquest (either actual or metaphorical) or other inappropriate models, including military. At a minimum, the Study must actively build non-violence into the voyaging culture it is beginning to create today. References to exploitive colonization, conquest, destiny and other terms from especially American frontier mythology, while tempting in their propagandizing power, should be avoided as they limit creative thinking about alternative possible futures. Future voyagers must strive to adapt to new environments wherever possible and be assimilated by new worlds both biologically and behaviorally rather than to rely on attempts to recreate the Earth they have left. Adaptation should be strongly considered over terraforming. This paper provides an overview of previous work linking the language of colonization to space programs and challenges the extension of the myth of the American frontier to the Starship Study. It argues that such metaphors would be counter-productive at best and have the potential to doom long-term success and survival by planting seeds of social decay and self-destruction. Cautions and recommendations are suggested.

  13. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimi McEvoy

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis: A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS; eight groups (64 students by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment and session satisfaction (survey in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results: We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students’ reflective scores (p=0.0003 and satisfaction (p=0.0001. T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033; there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students’ reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions: Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students’ reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic

  14. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2018-05-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  15. Rapid prototyping modelling in oral and maxillofacial surgery: a two year retrospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Suomalainen, Anni; Stoor, Patricia; Mesimäki, Karri; Kontio, Risto K.

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of rapid prototyping (RP) models in medicine to construct bony models is increasing. Material and Methods The aim of the study was to evaluate retrospectively the indication for the use of RP models in oral and maxillofacial surgery at Helsinki University Central Hospital during 2009-2010. Also, the used computed tomography (CT) examination ? multislice CT (MSCT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) - method was evaluated. Results In total 114 RP models were fabricated for 102 patients. ...

  16. Microscopic Car Modeling for Intelligent Traffic and Scenario Generation in the UCF Driving Simulator : Year 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    A multi-year project was initiated to introduce autonomous vehicles in the University of Central Florida (UCF) Driving Simulator for real-time interaction with the simulator vehicle. This report describes the progress during the second year. In the f...

  17. Entry-Year Administrator Induction: A State and Local School District Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, William R.

    1988-01-01

    The Dayton (Ohio) City School District initiated a very successful pilot induction program for entry-year administrators in January 1987. Nine special workshops were planned to train both volunteer mentors and entry-year administrators in such areas as personal development, conflict management, problem identification and solution, time management,…

  18. The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: a 10-year review of empirical studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos; Karlaftis, Matthew G.; Tsamboulas, Dimitrios

    2010-01-01

    The gravity model has been extensively used in international trade research for the last 40 years because of its considerable empirical robustness and explanatory power. Since their introduction in the 1960's, gravity models have been used for assessing trade policy implications and, particularly recently, for analyzing the effects of Free Trade Agreements on international trade. The objective of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models, highlight best practic...

  19. Feasibility Study of a Solar-Powered Electric Vehicle Charging Station Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bin Ye

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In China, the power sector is currently the largest carbon emitter and the transportation sector is the fastest-growing carbon emitter. This paper proposes a model of solar-powered charging stations for electric vehicles to mitigate problems encountered in China’s renewable energy utilization processes and to cope with the increasing power demand by electric vehicles for the near future. This study applies the proposed model to Shenzhen City to verify its technical and economic feasibility. Modeling results showed that the total net present value of a photovoltaic power charging station that meets the daily electricity demand of 4500 kWh is $3,579,236 and that the cost of energy of the combined energy system is $0.098/kWh. In addition, the photovoltaic powered electric vehicle model has pollutant reduction potentials of 99.8%, 99.7% and 100% for carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxides, respectively, compared with a traditional gasoline-fueled car. Sensitivity analysis results indicated that interest rate has a relatively strong influence on COE (Cost of Energy. An increase in the interest rate from 0% to 6% increases COE from $0.027/kWh to $0.097/kWh. This analysis also suggests that carbon pricing promotes renewable energy only when the price of carbon is above $20/t.

  20. Fighter Pilot Inventory and Requirements Model; A Ten Year Look with Impact of UAV Increase

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Garner, Russell S; Villem, Paul A

    2005-01-01

    .... In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles have become a highly sought after commodity, and the number of UAV billets have increased, with more increases expected in the near future. Currently 45...

  1. Finding foundations: A model for information literacy assessment of first-year students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe Fisher

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In Brief This article presents a case study in establishing an information literacy instruction and assessment program for first-year university students at the University of Colorado Denver. Rather than presenting assessment data, we document the process in which our department engaged with the student learning assessment cycle, with the intention of allowing other information literacy professionals to see how we established an instruction program for first-year English Composition. We include a description of in-class exercises, rubrics, and the procedures we followed in order to assess the foundational information literacy skills of first-year students on our campus. This assessment was not conducted to demonstrate what students learned from librarians (thereby illustrating the value of library instruction. Rather, we assessed student learning to ascertain the information literacy skills students bring with them into a first-year English Composition course.

  2. A Model to Predict Student Failure in the First Year of the Undergraduate Medical Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard J.A. Baars

    2017-06-01

    Discussion: The earliest moment with the highest specificity to predict student failure in the first-year curriculum seems to be at 6 months. However, additional factors are needed to improve this prediction or to bring forward the predictive moment.

  3. Forty years of Fanger's model of thermal comfort: Comfort for all?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoof, van J.

    2008-01-01

    The predicted mean vote (PMV) model of thermal comfort, created by Fanger in the late 1960s, is used worldwide to assess thermal comfort. Fanger based his model on college-aged students for use in invariant environmental conditions in air-conditioned buildings in moderate thermal climate zones.

  4. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Several studies have attributed social demographic and environmental characteristics to differentials in children mortality rates worldwide but there is paucity of information on modelling of children survival in Nigeria. In this study we modelled children survival in Nigeria and predicted their chances of survival in ...

  5. Modelling of water and chloride transport in concrete during yearly wetting/drying cycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Der Zanden, A.J.J.; Taher, A.; Arends, T.

    2015-01-01

    The simultaneous transport of water and chloride in concrete has been modelled. The water transport is described with a concentration dependent diffusion coefficient. The chloride transport is modelled with a convective part, caused by the water transport, and a diffusive part, caused by the

  6. A Multi-Year Plan for Enhancing Turbulence Modeling in Hydra-TH Revised and Updated Version 2.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Thomas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Berndt, Markus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Magolan, Ben [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to document a multi-year plan for enhancing turbulence modeling in Hydra-TH for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Hydra-TH is being developed to the meet the high- fidelity, high-Reynolds number CFD based thermal hydraulic simulation needs of the program. This work is being conducted within the thermal hydraulics methods (THM) focus area. This report is an extension of THM CASL milestone L3:THM.CFD.P10.02 [33] (March, 2015) and picks up where it left off. It will also serve to meet the requirements of CASL THM level three milestone, L3:THM.CFD.P11.04, scheduled for completion September 30, 2015. The objectives of this plan will be met by: maturation of recently added turbulence models, strategic design/development of new models and systematic and rigorous testing of existing and new models and model extensions. While multi-phase turbulent flow simulations are important to the program, only single-phase modeling will be considered in this report. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also an important modeling methodology. However, at least in the first year, the focus is on steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling.

  7. PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

    2009-10-01

    Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

  8. Forty years of Fanger's model of thermal comfort: comfort for all?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hoof, J

    2008-06-01

    The predicted mean vote (PMV) model of thermal comfort, created by Fanger in the late 1960s, is used worldwide to assess thermal comfort. Fanger based his model on college-aged students for use in invariant environmental conditions in air-conditioned buildings in moderate thermal climate zones. Environmental engineering practice calls for a predictive method that is applicable to all types of people in any kind of building in every climate zone. In this publication, existing support and criticism, as well as modifications to the PMV model are discussed in light of the requirements by environmental engineering practice in the 21st century in order to move from a predicted mean vote to comfort for all. Improved prediction of thermal comfort can be achieved through improving the validity of the PMV model, better specification of the model's input parameters, and accounting for outdoor thermal conditions and special groups. The application range of the PMV model can be enlarged, for instance, by using the model to assess the effects of the thermal environment on productivity and behavior, and interactions with other indoor environmental parameters, and the use of information and communication technologies. Even with such modifications to thermal comfort evaluation, thermal comfort for all can only be achieved when occupants have effective control over their own thermal environment. The paper treats the assessment of thermal comfort using the PMV model of Fanger, and deals with the strengths and limitations of this model. Readers are made familiar to some opportunities for use in the 21st-century information society.

  9. Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-07-27

    This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

  10. The development of personal models of diabetes in the first 2 years after diagnosis: a prospective longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, V L; Bundy, C; Harvey, J N

    2008-04-01

    Personal models of diabetes comprise beliefs about symptoms, treatment effectiveness, consequences and emotional responses to possible future complications. They are associated with, and influence, self-care behaviour. Little work has examined potential influences on the development and maintenance of personal models. The aims of this study were: (i) to assess changes in personal models over 2 years from diagnosis of diabetes; and (ii) to examine the relative contributions of health threat communication (at diagnosis, since diagnosis, during follow-up care) and personality to personal models of diabetes 2 years post-diagnosis. Newly diagnosed patients were interviewed at diagnosis (time 1) and 6 months (time 2), 1 year (time 3) and 2 years (time 4) after diagnosis. Data were available for 158 patients at time 1 (32 Type 1 patients and 126 Type 2 patients), 147 at time 2, 142 at time 3 and 138 at time 4. Perceptions of symptoms, consequences, course and control of diabetes remained stable over time. Emotional responses decreased and illness coherence (perceived understanding) increased over time. Health threat communication was a stronger predictor of personal models than personality. Emotional responses to diabetes 2 years after diagnosis were predicted by perceptions of a threatening health message (at diagnosis 18%, at follow-up 5%). Health threat communication predicted perceptions of serious consequences (at diagnosis 5%, at follow-up 9%). Perceptions of a reassuring message during follow-up were related to beliefs of treatment effectiveness (26%). The communication of information and the way it is perceived is an important determinant of the patient's view of their diabetes. The initial effects of the education process at diagnosis persisted 2 years after diagnosis.

  11. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  12. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside : inspections and traffic enforcements i...

  13. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model fiscal year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  14. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model, fiscal year 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  15. Climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, S.K.; Hense, A. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Legutke, S.; Kwon, W.T. [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea). Meteorological Research Inst.

    2004-03-01

    The climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G are analyzed and compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux corrections for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no climate drift for 1000 years, but no flux corrections for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modeled near surface temperatures shows that the observed global warming at near surface level is beyond the range of internal variability produced by ECHO-G. The simulated global mean near surface temperatures, however, show a two-year spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the ENSO signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (3-9 years) is underestimated. The overall ENSO structure such as the tropical SST climate and its seasonal cycle, a single ITCZ in the eastern tropical Pacific, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle are simulated reasonably well by ECHO-G. However, the amplitude of SST variability is overestimated in the eastern equatorial pacific and the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial pacific is not captured by the model. ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are reproduced realistically. The station-based NAO index in the model exhibits a 'white' noise spectrum similar to the observed and the NAO-related patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are also simulated successfully. However, the model overestimates the additional warming over the north pacific in the high index

  16. 25-years three-fluid modeling-experience: successes and limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolev, N.I.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents many examples of successful use of the three fluid processes modeling in 1D-networks, 3D-single volumes and 3D-boundary fitted volumes in the nuclear engineering. Fig. 1 shows 2700K hot molten aluminum oxide dropped in water and 3000K uranium oxide dropped in water as a demonstration for mathematical modeling of very complex real processes. (author)

  17. Temperature responses to the 11 year solar cycle in the mesosphere from the 31 year (1979-2010) extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulations and a comparison with the 14 year (2002-2015) TIMED/SABER observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Quan; Du, Jian; Fomichev, Victor I.; Ward, William E.; Beagley, Stephen R.; Zhang, Shaodong; Yue, Jia

    2017-04-01

    A recent 31 year simulation (1979-2010) by extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM30) and the 14 year (2002-2015) observation by the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emssion Radiometry (TIMED/SABER) are utilized to investigate the temperature response to the 11 year solar cycle on the mesosphere. Overall, the zonal mean responses tend to increase with height, and the amplitudes are on the order of 1-2 K/100 solar flux unit (1 sfu = 10-22 W m-2 Hz-1) below 80 km and 2-4 K/100 sfu in the mesopause region (80-100 km) from the eCMAM30, comparatively weaker than those from the SABER except in the midlatitude lower mesosphere. A pretty good consistence takes place at around 75-80 km with a response of 1.5 K/100 sfu within 10°S/N. Also, a symmetric pattern of the responses about the equator agrees reasonably well between the two. It is noteworthy that the eCMAM30 displays an alternate structure with the upper stratospheric cooling and the lower mesospheric warming at midlatitudes of the winter hemisphere, in favor of the long-term Rayleigh lidar observation reported by the previous studies. Through diagnosing multiple dynamical parameters, it is manifested that this localized feature is induced by the anomalous residual circulation as a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction during the solar maximum year.

  18. 77 FR 62623 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-15

    ... changes to the regulations applicable to model years 2012-2016, with respect to air conditioner... standards for emissions of pollutants from new motor vehicles which emissions cause or contribute to air... same improvements in air conditioner efficiency. \\5\\ This is further broken down by 5.0 and 7.2 g/mi...

  19. 77 FR 2028 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-13

    .../otaq/climate/regulations.htm or by searching the public dockets (NHTSA-2010-0131 (for the proposed rule... EPA's Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm . NHTSA and EPA will consider all... vehicles for model years 2017-2025. On May 21, 2010, President Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum...

  20. 76 FR 48758 - 2017-2025 Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards: Supplemental Notice of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-09

    ... definitions of mild and strong HEV pickup trucks, but expect to include stop/start, regenerative braking... (light-duty vehicles) built in those model years. Together, these vehicle categories, which include... provides the opportunity to begin to transform the most challenging category of vehicles in terms of the...

  1. An Evaluation of the Model School Division (MSD) Preschool Program for the School Year 1973-74.

    Science.gov (United States)

    District of Columbia Public Schools, Washington, DC. Dept. of Research and Evaluation.

    This study was designed to assess the extent to which children served by the Model Schools Division Preschool Program developed socially, intellectually, physically and emotionally during the 1973-74 school year. This evaluation was also designed to measure the appropriateness of the learning environment and the amount of services provided by the…

  2. Developing a Hybrid Model to Predict Student First Year Retention in STEM Disciplines Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhasawneh, Ruba; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to develop a hybrid framework to model first year student retention for underrepresented minority (URM) students comprising African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans. Identifying inputs that best contribute to student retention provides significant information for institutions to learn about…

  3. 75 FR 62739 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards; Notice of Intent

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-13

    ... Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards; Notice of Intent AGENCIES: Environmental... fuel economy (CAFE) standards in accordance with the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), as... FR 49454, 49460 (September 28, 2009). The NHTSA CAFE standards are only based on technologies that...

  4. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River

  5. Quantities of Interest in Jet Stirred Reactor Oxidation of a High-Octane Gasoline

    KAUST Repository

    Chen, Bingjie; Togbé , Casimir; Selim, Hatem; Dagaut, Philippe; Sarathy, Mani

    2017-01-01

    related to smaller molecule reactions. The results presented here offer new insights into the oxidation chemistry of complex gasoline fuels and provide suggestions for the future development of surrogate kinetic models.

  6. Modeling Racial Differences in the Effects of Racial Representation on 2-Year College Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Museus, Samuel D.; Jayakumar, Uma M.; Robinson, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The failure of many 2-year college students to persist and complete a post-secondary credential or degree remains a problem of paramount importance to higher education policymakers and practitioners. While racial representation--or the extent to which a student's racial group is represented on their respective campus--might be one factor that…

  7. Cause-Effect Analysis: Improvement of a First Year Engineering Students' Calculus Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of…

  8. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fagbamigbe

    We computed the probability of survival and mortality rates for the first five years and .... plotting completed parity distributions and 'time-plotting' mean numbers of children ever .... Then the adjusted number at risk (nj )at the start of the interval could be obtained using ..... facilities, trained health workers, better nutrition etc.

  9. Anatomy Integration Blueprint: A Fourth-Year Musculoskeletal Anatomy Elective Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D.; Kauffman, Gordon L., Jr.; Kothari, Milind J.; Mosher, Timothy J.; Silvis, Matthew L.; Wawrzyniak, John R.; Anderson, Daniel T.; Black, Kevin P.

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of…

  10. Thirty Years with EoS/GE Models - What Have We Learned?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.; Coutsikos, Philippos

    2012-01-01

    Thirty years of research and the use of EoS/GE mixing rules in cubic equations of state are reviewed. The most popular approaches are presented both from the derivation and application points of view and they are compared to each other. It is shown that all methods have significant capabilities b...

  11. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batchelor, M T

    2005-01-01

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with δ-function potentials, the Heisenberg spin chain, the Hubbard model, exchange models, the Calogero

  12. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batchelor, M T [Department of Theoretical Physics, RSPSE and Department of Mathematics, MSI, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2005-04-08

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with {delta}-function potentials, the

  13. Model independent foreground power spectrum estimation using WMAP 5-year data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Tuhin; Souradeep, Tarun; Saha, Rajib; Jain, Pankaj

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement on WMAP 5 yr data a model independent approach of foreground power spectrum estimation for multifrequency observations of the CMB experiments. Recently, a model independent approach of CMB power spectrum estimation was proposed by Saha et al. 2006. This methodology demonstrates that the CMB power spectrum can be reliably estimated solely from WMAP data without assuming any template models for the foreground components. In the current paper, we extend this work to estimate the galactic foreground power spectrum using the WMAP 5 yr maps following a self-contained analysis. We apply the model independent method in harmonic basis to estimate the foreground power spectrum and frequency dependence of combined foregrounds. We also study the behavior of synchrotron spectral index variation over different regions of the sky. We use the full sky Haslam map as an external template to increase the degrees of freedom, while computing the synchrotron spectral index over the frequency range from 408 MHz to 94 GHz. We compare our results with those obtained from maximum entropy method foreground maps, which are formed in pixel space. We find that relative to our model independent estimates maximum entropy method maps overestimate the foreground power close to galactic plane and underestimates it at high latitudes.

  14. Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

  15. A model of Earth’s magnetic field derived from 2 years of Swarm satellite constellation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Kotsiaros, Stavros

    2016-01-01

    More than 2 years of magnetic field data taken by the three-satellite constellation mission Swarm are used to derive a model of Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation. This model is called SIFMplus. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites...... the North–South gradient. The SIFMplus model provides a description of the static lithospheric field that is very similar to models determined from CHAMP data, up to at least spherical harmonic degree n=75. Also the core field part of SIFMplus, with a quadratic time dependence for n≤6 and a linear time...... with the model of the core, lithospheric and large-scale magnetospheric fields, a magnetic potential that depends on quasi-dipole latitude and magnetic local time....

  16. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  17. 25 Years of DECOVALEX - Research Advances and Lessons Learned from an International Model Comparison Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of an international research and model comparison collaboration (DECOVALEX) for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. Prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and is also relevant for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX research activities have been supported by a large number of radioactive-waste-management organizations and regulatory authorities. Research teams from more than a dozen international partner organizations have participated in the comparative modeling evaluation of complex field and laboratory experiments in the UK, Switzerland, Japan, France and Sweden. Together, these tasks (1) have addressed a wide range of relevant issues related to engineered and natural system behavior in argillaceous, crystalline and other host rocks, (2) have yielded in-depth knowledge of coupled THM and THMC processes associated with nuclear waste repositories and wider geo-engineering applications, and (3) have advanced the capability, as well as demonstrated the suitability, of numerical simulation models for quantitative analysis.

  18. Twenty years at the margins: the Herman-Chomsky propaganda model, 1988-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Mullen, Andy

    2008-01-01

    2008 marks the 20th anniversary of the publication of Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky. This comment briefly assesses how the Herman-Chomsky Propaganda Model (PM) has been received within the field of media and communication studies in the United Kingdom.

  19. Modeling diarrhea disease in children less than 5 years old: a GAM and GLM approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sharif mahmood

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} This paper presents the application of generalized additive model (GAM and generalized linear model (GLM as an exploratory tool for analyzing the factors that affect the occurrence of diarrhea of Bangladeshi child. The relation between the factors that are related with occurrence of diarrhea can be obtained by modeling parametric approach (GLM. But in practice the relation is not straight forward and we require elaborate explanations which incline semiparametric regression (GAM. We present a unified approach for analyzing factors affecting diarrhea via GLM and GAM. We applied Akaike's information criterion to select the best model for our data. Our study analyzes nonlinear resolution of covariate not available with traditional parametric models and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce occurrence of diarrhea by improving socio-economic and public health conditions.

  20. Model application of Murabahah financing acknowledgement statement of Sharia accounting standard No 59 Year 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Iskandar; Panjaitan, Rohdearni; Erlina; Ginting, Syafruddin; Maksum, Azhar; Abubakar

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to observe murabahah financing implantation model. Observations were made on one of the sharia banks going public in Indonesia. Form of implementation of such implementation in the form of financing given the exact facilities and maximum financing, then the provision of financing should be adjusted to the type, business conditions and business plans prospective mudharib. If the financing provided is too low with the mudharib requirement not reaching the target and the financing is not refundable.

  1. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...... ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis...

  2. 8 years of experience in international, interdisciplinary and structured doctoral training in Earth system modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Antje; Stevens, Bjorn; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    The mission of the International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM) is to provide a high quality, modern and structured graduate education to students pursuing a doctoral degree in Earth system modelling. In so doing, the IMPRS-ESM also strives to advance the emerging discipline (or cross-discipline) of Earth system modelling; to provide a framework for attracting the most talented and creative young women and men from around the world to pursue their doctoral education in Germany; to provide advanced as well as specialized academic training and scientific guidance to doctoral students; to encourage academic networking and publication of research results; to better integrate doctoral research at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) with education and research at the University of Hamburg and other cooperating institutions. Core elements are rigorous selection of doctoral students, effective academic supervision, advanced academic training opportunities and interdisciplinary communication as well as administrative support. IMPRS-ESM graduates have been recognized with a variety of awards. 85% of our alumni continue a career in research. In this presentation we review the challenges for an interdisciplinary PhD program in Earth system sciences and the types of routines we have implemented to surmount them as well as key elements that we believe contribute to the success of our doctoral program.

  3. Cervical cancer screening in Australia: modelled evaluation of the impact of changing the recommended interval from two to three years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kirsten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that sexually active women between the ages of 18-70 years attend routine screening every 2 years. The publically funded National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007, with catch-up in females aged 12-26 years conducted until 2009; and this may prompt consideration of whether the screening interval and other aspects of the organized screening program could be reviewed. The aim of the current evaluation was to assess the epidemiologic outcomes and cost implications of changing the recommended screening interval in Australia to 3 years. Methods We used a modelling approach to evaluate the effects of moving to a 3-yearly recommended screening interval. We used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry over the period 1997-2007 to model compliance with routine screening under current practice, and registry data from other countries with 3-yearly recommendations to inform assumptions about future screening behaviour under two alternative systems for screening organisation - retention of a reminder-based system (as in New Zealand, or a move to a call-and-recall system (as in England. Results A 3-yearly recommendation is predicted to be of similar effectiveness to the current 2-yearly recommendation, resulting in no substantial change to the total number of incident cervical cancer cases or cancer deaths, or to the estimated 0.68% average cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated Australian women. However, a 3-yearly screening policy would be associated with decreases in the annual number of colposcopy and biopsy procedures performed (by 4-10% and decreases in the number of treatments for pre-invasive lesions (by 2-4%. The magnitude of the decrease in the number of diagnostic procedures and treatments would depend on the method of screening organization, with call-and-recall screening associated with the highest reductions. The

  4. Ready to learn physics: a team-based learning model for first year university

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parappilly, Maria; Schmidt, Lisa; De Ritter, Samantha

    2015-09-01

    Team-based learning (TBL) is an established model of group work which aims to improve students' ability to apply discipline-related content. TBL consists of a readiness assurance process (RAP), student groups and application activities. While TBL has not been implemented widely in science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines, it has been effective in improving student learning in other disciplines. This paper describes the incorporation of TBL activities into a non-calculus based introductory level physics topic—Physics for the Modern World. Students were given pre-class preparation materials and an individual RAP online test before the workshops. The pre-workshop individual RAP test ensured that all students were exposed to concept-based questions before their workshops and motivated them to use the preparatory materials in readiness for the workshop. The students were placed into random teams and during the first part of the workshop, the teams went through a subset of the quiz questions (team RAP test) and in the remaining time, teams completed an in-class assignment. After the workshop students were allowed another attempt at the individual RAP test to see if their knowledge had improved. The ability of TBL to promote student learning of key concepts was evaluated by experiment using pre- and post- testing. The students’ perception of TBL was monitored by discussion posts and survey responses. Finally, the ability of TBL to support peer-peer interaction was evaluated by video analysis of the class. We found that the TBL process improved student learning; students did interact with each other in class; and the students had a positive view of TBL. To assess the transferability of this model to other topics, we conducted a comparison study with an environmental science topic which produced similar results. Our study supports the use of this TBL model in science topics.

  5. Cloud vector mapping using MODIS 09 Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) for the year 2010 and 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jah, Asjad Asif; Farrukh, Yousaf Bin; Ali, Rao Muhammad Saeed

    2013-01-01

    An alternate use for MODIS images was sought by mapping cloud movement directions and dissipation time during the 2010 and 2011 floods. MODIS Level-02 daily CMG (Climate Modelling Grid) land-cover images were downloaded and subsequently rectified and clipped to the study area. These images were then put together to observe the direction of cloud movement and vectorize the observed paths. Initial findings suggest that usually cloud does not have a prolonged coverage period over the northern humid region of the country and dissipates within less than 24-hours. Additionally, this led to the development of a robust methodology for cloud motion analysis using FOSS and market leading GIS utilities

  6. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreau, Sebastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    , of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equa- tions. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption, and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3ﰀ6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also...... included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experi- ment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary...

  7. Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platnick, Steven E.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

  8. A post audit and inverse modeling in reactive transport: 50 years of artificial recharge in the Amsterdam Water Supply Dunes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsen, R. H.; Smits, F. J. C.; Stuyfzand, P. J.; Olsthoorn, T. N.; van Breukelen, B. M.

    2012-08-01

    SummaryThis article describes the post audit and inverse modeling of a 1-D forward reactive transport model. The model simulates the changes in water quality following artificial recharge of pre-treated water from the river Rhine in the Amsterdam Water Supply Dunes using the PHREEQC-2 numerical code. One observation dataset is used for model calibration, and another dataset for validation of model predictions. The total simulation time of the model is 50 years, from 1957 to 2007, with recharge composition varying on a monthly basis and the post audit is performed 26 years after the former model simulation period. The post audit revealed that the original model could reasonably predict conservative transport and kinetic redox reactions (oxygen and nitrate reduction coupled to the oxidation of soil organic carbon), but showed discrepancies in the simulation of cation exchange. Conceptualizations of the former model were inadequate to accurately simulate water quality changes controlled by cation exchange, especially concerning the breakthrough of potassium and magnesium fronts. Changes in conceptualization and model design, including the addition of five flow paths, to a total of six, and the use of parameter estimation software (PEST), resulted in a better model to measurement fit and system representation. No unique parameter set could be found for the model, primarily due to high parameter correlations, and an assessment of the predictive error was made using a calibration constrained Monte-Carlo method, and evaluated against field observations. The predictive error was found to be low for Na+ and Ca2+, except for greater travel times, while the K+ and Mg2+ error was restricted to the exchange fronts at some of the flow paths. Optimized cation exchange coefficients were relatively high, especially for potassium, but still within the observed range in literature. The exchange coefficient for potassium agrees with strong fixation on illite, a main clay mineral in

  9. The Effect of Talking Drawings on Five-Year-Old Turkish Children's Mental Models of the Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahi, Berat

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study is to determine the effect of talking drawings on Turkish preschool children's mental models of the water cycle. The study was conducted in the city of Kastamonu, located in the north-west of Turkey. A total of 40 five-year-old preschool children participated in the study in the spring term of the 2015-2016 school…

  10. Cosmology and Particle Physics beyond Standard Models Ten Years of the SEENET-MTP Network

    CERN Document Server

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Stojkovic, Dejan

    2014-01-01

    This publication - "Cosmology and Particle Physics beyond Standard Models" - is dedicated to the celebration of the tenth anniversary of the Southeastern European Network in Mathematical and Theoretical Physics (SEENET-MTP). As a Theme Collection, rather than a Monograph or Proceedings, this volume presents a number of reports and overviews, a few research papers and a short note. However, some of them are excellent examples of a nowadays increasingly deep interplay between particle physics and cosmology. Contributions span a wide range of topics in cosmology, particle physics, but also gravity, including the interface of these fields. The presented work is of both theoretical and experimental/ observational nature. The contributions represent recent progress in their respective fields: inflation, dark matter, neutrino physics, supersymmetry, collider physics, string theory, quantum gravity, black hole physics and massive gravity.

  11. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, Sébastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis; Zhou, Jiayun; Kotovich, Marie; Thomas, David; Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Goosse, Hugues

    2015-04-01

    Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halo-thermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport, of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equations. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3•6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6-month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska and an ice-tank experiment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes are limited by DIC stocks, and therefore < 2 mmol m-2 day-1, we argue that the observed much larger CO2 fluxes from eddy covariance retrievals cannot be explained by a sea ice direct source and must involve other processes or other sources of CO2. Finally, the simulations suggest that near surface TA/DIC ratios of ~2, sometimes used as an indicator of calcification, would rather suggest outgassing.

  12. Time-series photometric spot modeling. 2: Fifteen years of photometry of the bright RS CVn binary HR 7275

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassmeier, K. G.; Hall, D. S.; Henry, G. W.

    1994-01-01

    We present a time-dependent spot modeling analysis of 15 consecutive years of V-band photometry of the long-period (P(sub orb) = 28.6 days) RS CVn binary HR 7275. This baseline in time is one of the longest, uninterrupted intervals a spotted star has been observed. The spot modeling analysis yields a total of 20 different spots throughout the time span of our observations. The distribution of the observed spot migration rates is consistent with solar-type differential rotation and suggests a lower limit of the differential-rotation coefficient of 0.022 +/-0.004. The observed, maximum lifetime of a single spot (or spot group) is 4.5 years, the minimum lifetime is approximately one year, but an average spot lives for 2.2 years. If we assume that the mechanical shear by differential rotation sets the upper limit to the spot lifetime, the observed maximum lifetime in turn sets an upper limit to the differential-rotation coefficient, namely 0.04 +/- 0.01. This would be differential rotation just 5 to 8 times less than the solar value and one of the strongest among active binaries. We found no conclusive evidence for the existence of a periodic phenomenon that could be attributed to a stellar magnetic cycle.

  13. Modelling the lay expert for first-year medical students: the actor-patient as teacher.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestel, Debra; Muir, Elizabeth; Plant, Marilyn; Kidd, Jane; Thurlow, Sue

    2002-09-01

    Actors are widely used in medical education as simulated patients. In this session, the role of actors was extended to 'simulated students' and facilitators in an introductory communication session. After an initial activity with the entire cohort of first-year students, groups of 20 students worked with either an actor or medical teacher in three activities. The activities aimed to raise students' awareness of the range of communication challenges in medical education and practice. After the session, students completed evaluation forms based on their experiences in the session. The results revealed no difference between students who were facilitated by actors or medical teachers in relation to meeting the learning objectives and their ratings of the usefulness of the activities to support learning. The actors who participated in this session were experienced in working with medical students. Their enhanced role provides students with an opportunity to identify with and reflect on the expertise of a lay teacher and to consider extending their definition of a learning opportunity to more informal encounters.

  14. Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

  15. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels.

  16. Observations and modeling of fjord sedimentation during the 30 year retreat of Columbia Glacier, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Katherine B; Hallet, Bernard; Pratt, Thomas L.; O'Neel, Shad

    2016-01-01

    To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 108 m3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a−1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

  17. Building information modelling (BIM) after ten years: Malaysian construction players’ perception of BIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latiffi, A. Ahmad; Brahim, J.; Fathi, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    Building Information Modelling (BIM) concept has expanded widely in many countries for more than a decade with its role of improving current practices in construction projects. However, the understanding of BIM differs among construction players, depending on how construction players utilize the concept in their projects. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the understanding of BIM concept among construction players in the Malaysian construction industry. A literature review on BIM concept and semi-structured interviews with construction players in BIM such as client, civil and structural (C&S) engineer and mechanical and electrical (M&E) engineer, quantity surveyor (QS), contractor, facilities manager and BIM consultant have been conducted in order to achieve this study’s the aim. The results show that the understanding of BIM concept among the construction players is limited to BIM as a process and technology. It is important for the construction players to improve their understanding of BIM as it can be used to enhance performance and productivity of construction projects.

  18. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nigg, David W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  19. The trilayer approach of teaching physiology, pathophysiology, and pharmacology concepts in a first-year pharmacy course: the TLAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Mohammed A; Sabnis, Gauri; Farris, Fred

    2017-09-01

    This paper describes the development, implementation, and students' perceptions of a new trilayer approach of teaching (TLAT). The TLAT model involved blending lecture, in-class group activities, and out-of-class assignments on selected content areas and was implemented initially in a first-year integrated pharmacy course. Course contents were either delivered by traditional lectures or by the TLAT. A survey instrument was distributed by SurveyMonkey to determine students' perceptions of the TLAT model. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Students' performance in a total of 225 examination and quiz questions was analyzed to evaluate whether the TLAT model improved students' learning. Students' ( n = 98) performance scores for TLAT-based and lecture-based questions were 83.3 ± 10.2 and 79.5 ± 14.0, respectively ( P Physiological Society.

  20. Integrating critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry across a four-year dental curriculum: a model for independent learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Handoo, Nidhi; Solow, Catherine M; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; Finkelstein, Michael W

    2014-03-01

    Introducing critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry (EBD) content into an established dental curriculum can be a difficult and challenging process. Over the past three years, the University of Iowa College of Dentistry has developed and implemented a progressive four-year integrated critical thinking and EBD curriculum. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implementation process to make it available as a model for other dental schools contemplating introduction of critical thinking and EBD into their curricula. The newly designed curriculum built upon an existing problem-based learning foundation, which introduces critical thinking and the scientific literature in the D1 year, in order to expose students to the rationale and resources for practicing EBD in the D2 and D3 years and provide opportunities to practice critical thinking and apply the EBD five-step process in the D2, D3, and D4 years. All curricular content is online, and D3 and D4 EBD activities are integrated within existing clinical responsibilities. The curricular content, student resources, and student activities are described.

  1. Modeling Early Postnatal Brain Growth and Development with CT: Changes in the Brain Radiodensity Histogram from Birth to 2 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauley, K A; Hu, Y; Och, J; Yorks, P J; Fielden, S W

    2018-04-01

    The majority of brain growth and development occur in the first 2 years of life. This study investigated these changes by analysis of the brain radiodensity histogram of head CT scans from the clinical population, 0-2 years of age. One hundred twenty consecutive head CTs with normal findings meeting the inclusion criteria from children from birth to 2 years were retrospectively identified from 3 different CT scan platforms. Histogram analysis was performed on brain-extracted images, and histogram mean, mode, full width at half maximum, skewness, kurtosis, and SD were correlated with subject age. The effects of scan platform were investigated. Normative curves were fitted by polynomial regression analysis. Average total brain volume was 360 cm 3 at birth, 948 cm 3 at 1 year, and 1072 cm 3 at 2 years. Total brain tissue density showed an 11% increase in mean density at 1 year and 19% at 2 years. Brain radiodensity histogram skewness was positive at birth, declining logarithmically in the first 200 days of life. The histogram kurtosis also decreased in the first 200 days to approach a normal distribution. Direct segmentation of CT images showed that changes in brain radiodensity histogram skewness correlated with, and can be explained by, a relative increase in gray matter volume and an increase in gray and white matter tissue density that occurs during this period of brain maturation. Normative metrics of the brain radiodensity histogram derived from routine clinical head CT images can be used to develop a model of normal brain development. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  2. The Swarm Initial Field Model – a Model of the Earth’s Magnetic Field for 2014 Determined From One Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    Almost one year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times (Kp less than 2o, time change of Dst-index less than 2 nT/hr) and dark regions (sun below horizon) and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC...

  3. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5-6 year olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A

    2016-01-01

    Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5-6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5-6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5-6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5–6 year olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J.; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L.; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. Objective This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5–6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. Methods 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5–6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Results Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Conclusions Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5–6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. PMID:26647364

  5. Intranasal Deposition of Accuspray™ Aerosol in Anatomically Correct Models of 2-, 5-, and 12-Year-Old Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laube, Beth L; Sharpless, Gail; Vikani, Ami R; Harrand, Vincent; Zinreich, Simeon J; Sedberry, Keith; Knaus, Darin; Barry, James; Papania, Mark

    2015-10-01

    To our knowledge, quantification of intranasal deposition of aerosol generated by Accuspray(™) (AS) in children has never been published. We hypothesized that deposition would vary significantly with age and with placement of the device within, or outside, of the nostril. We tested these hypotheses in anatomically-correct physical models based on CT scans of 2-, 5-, and 12-year-old children with normal, intranasal airways. Models included a removable anterior nose (AN) with exterior facial features and interior nasal vestibule and nasal valve area and a main nasal airway (MNA), subdivided into upper (superior turbinates and olfactory area), middle (middle turbinates), and lower (inferior turbinates and nasopharynx) thirds. Aerosol was generated from distilled water admixed with (99m)technetium pertechnetate and administered during static airflow by AS inserted inside the right nostril (eight runs/model), or outside the right nostril (six runs/model). Mean aerosol Dv(50) ± standard deviation was 67.8 ± 24.7 μm. Deposition was quantified by 2D gamma scintigraphy and expressed as percentage of the emitted dose. When placed inside the nostril, mean (± standard deviation) deposition within the MNA was significantly less in the 2-year-old, compared to the 5- and 12-year-old, averaging 46.8 ± 33.8% (AN:55.4 ± 29.9%), 75.4 ± 26.7% (AN:23.3 ± 13.6%), and 72.1 ± 18.5% (AN:25.8 ± 18.5%), respectively (pchildren.

  6. Bridging the gap between textbook and maternity patient: a nurse-developed teaching model for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooksey, Nancy Rumsey

    2010-12-01

    Providing more opportunities for first-year medical students to interact with patients in clinical settings is a current discussion topic in medical student education reform. Early clinical experience helps students bridge the gap between textbook and patient while observing patient-centered care, and serves as a first step for students to develop the skills needed to work cooperatively as members of a multidisciplinary health care team. The author developed a model to provide perinatal education to first-year medical students, consistent with the concept of interprofessional education. Primarily first-year medical students participated in the nurse-developed education model, a component of a noncredit extracurricular, student-run perinatal program at a Midwestern university medical center. Students were placed at the bedsides of hospitalized women to provide support and education to them during perinatal procedures, labor, childbirth, and cesarean delivery. A total of 350 students participated over a period of 13 school calendar years. Students remarked that participation in the program reinforced the importance of their concurrent anatomy and physiology classes. They observed interdependence and cooperation among the members of the health care team caring for women, and their evaluations of their experiences at the bedside were highly positive. Women consistently expressed appreciation for the additional individualized attention and education received from our student and nurse team. Nurses can enhance the learning of first-year medical students in the maternity care clinical setting. This nurse-developed education program provided students with a variety of vivid clinical experiences with maternity patients. © 2010, Copyright the Author. Journal compilation © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Air pollution modeling over very complex terrain: An evaluation of WRF-Chem over Switzerland for two 1-year periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Mathias; Müller, Mathias D.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Parlow, Eberhard

    2013-10-01

    The fully coupled chemistry module (WRF-Chem) within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been implemented over a Swiss domain for the years 2002 and 1991. The very complex terrain requires a high horizontal resolution (2 × 2 km2), which is achieved by nesting the Swiss domain into a coarser European one. The temporal and spatial distribution of O3, NO2 and PM10 as well as temperature and solar radiation are evaluated against ground-based measurements. The model performs well for the meteorological parameters with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.92 for temperature and 0.88-0.89 for solar radiation. Temperature has root mean square errors (RMSE) of 3.30 K and 3.51 K for 2002 and 1991 and solar radiation has RMSEs of 122.92 and 116.35 for 2002 and 1991, respectively. For the modeled air pollutants, a multi-linear regression post-processing was used to eliminate systematic bias. Seasonal variations of post-processed air pollutants are represented correctly. However, short-term peaks of several days are not captured by the model. Averaged daily maximum and daily values of O3 achieved Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.69-0.77 whereas averaged NO2 and PM10 had the highest correlations for yearly average values (0.68-0.78). The spatial distribution reveals the importance of PM10 advection from the Po valley to southern Switzerland (Ticino). The absolute errors are ranging from - 10 to 15 μg/m3 for ozone, - 9 to 3 μg/m3 for NO2 and - 4 to 3 μg/m3 for PM10. However, larger errors occur along heavily trafficked roads, in street canyons or on mountains. We also compare yearly modeled results against a dedicated Swiss dispersion model for NO2 and PM10. The dedicated dispersion model has a slightly better statistical performance, but WRF-Chem is capable of computing the temporal evolution of three-dimensional data for a variety of air pollutants and meteorological parameters. Overall, WRF-Chem with the application of post-processing algorithms can

  8. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Vishnampettai G; Roy, Priyamvada; Das, Shukla; Mogha, Narendra Singh; Bansal, Ajay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

  9. Vertical distribution of Saharan dust over Rome (Italy): Comparison between 3-year model predictions and lidar soundings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishcha, P.; Barnaba, F.; Gobbi, G. P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.

    2005-03-01

    Mineral dust particles loaded into the atmosphere from the Sahara desert represent one major factor affecting the Earth's radiative budget. Regular model-based forecasts of 3-D dust fields can be used in order to determine the dust radiative effect in climate models, in spite of the large gaps in observations of dust vertical profiles. In this study, dust forecasts by the Tel Aviv University (TAU) dust prediction system were compared to lidar observations to better evaluate the model's capabilities. The TAU dust model was initially developed at the University of Athens and later modified at Tel Aviv University. Dust forecasts are initialized with the aid of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI) measurements. The lidar soundings employed were collected at the outskirts of Rome, Italy (41.84°N, 12.64°E) during the high-dust activity season from March to June of the years 2001, 2002, and 2003. The lidar vertical profiles collected in the presence of dust were used for obtaining statistically significant reference parameters of dust layers over Rome and for model versus lidar comparison. The Barnaba and Gobbi (2001) approach was used in the current study to derive height-resolved dust volumes from lidar measurements of backscatter. Close inspection of the juxtaposed vertical profiles, obtained from lidar and model data near Rome, indicates that the majority (67%) of the cases under investigation can be classified as good or acceptable forecasts of the dust vertical distribution. A more quantitative comparison shows that the model predictions are mainly accurate in the middle part of dust layers. This is supported by high correlation (0.85) between lidar and model data for forecast dust volumes greater than the threshold of 1 × 10-12 cm3/cm3. In general, however, the model tends to underestimate the lidar-derived dust volume profiles. The effect of clouds in the TOMS detection of AI is supposed to be the main factor responsible for this effect

  10. A comparative study of the oxidation characteristics of two gasoline fuels and an n-heptane/iso-octane surrogate mixture

    KAUST Repository

    Javed, Tamour; Nasir, Ehson F.; Es-sebbar, Et-touhami; Farooq, Aamir

    2015-01-01

    Ignition delay times and CO, H2O, OH and CO2 time-histories were measured behind reflected shock waves for two FACE (Fuels for Advanced Combustion Engines) gasolines and one PRF (Primary Reference Fuel) blend. The FACE gasolines chosen for this work

  11. 41 CFR 101-26.602-3 - Procurement of gasoline, fuel oil (diesel and burner), kerosene, and solvents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... from local purchase sources, when local purchase authority and capability exists, or by submitting... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Procurement of gasoline... REGULATIONS SUPPLY AND PROCUREMENT 26-PROCUREMENT SOURCES AND PROGRAM 26.6-Procurement Sources Other Than GSA...

  12. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, Tommy; Hed Myrberg, Ida; Omerov, Pernilla; Steineck, Gunnar; Nyberg, Ullakarin

    2016-01-01

    Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose. During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss. In total 666/915 (73%) participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766), but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84); sick-leave (OR = 2.81) or unemployment (OR = 1.64); psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64), or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96); suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54); with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48); and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22) found as protective. Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before

  13. Aggression, Sibling Antagonism, and Theory-of-Mind During the First Year of Siblinghood: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ju-Hyun; Volling, Brenda L.; Lane, Jonathan D.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2016-01-01

    A developmental cascade model was tested to examine longitudinal associations among firstborn children’s aggression, Theory-of-Mind, and antagonism toward their younger sibling during the first year of siblinghood. Aggression and Theory-of-Mind were assessed before the birth of a sibling, and 4 and 12 months after the birth, and antagonism was examined at 4 and 12 months in a sample of 208 firstborn children (initial M age = 30 months, 56% girls) from primarily European American, middle- class families. Firstborns’ aggression consistently predicted high sibling antagonism both directly and through poorer Theory-of-Mind. Results highlight the importance of examining longitudinal influences across behavioral, social-cognitive, and relational factors that are closely intertwined even from the early years of life. PMID:27096923

  14. Repeatability of stance phase kinematics from a multi-segment foot model in people aged 50 years and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, John B; Mackintosh, Shylie; Jones, Sara; Thewlis, Dominic

    2013-06-01

    Confidence in 3D multi-segment foot models has been limited by a lack of repeatability data, particularly in older populations that may display unique functional foot characteristics. This study aimed to determine the intra and inter-observer repeatability of stance phase kinematic data from a multi-segment foot model described by Leardini et al. [2] in people aged 50 years or older. Twenty healthy adults participated (mean age 65.4 years SD 8.4). A repeated measures study design was used with data collected from four testing sessions on two days from two observers. Intra (within-day and between-day) and inter-observer coefficient of multiple correlations revealed moderate to excellent similarity of stance phase joint range of motion (0.621-0.975). Relative to the joint range of motion (ROM), mean differences (MD) between sessions were highest for the within-day comparison for all planar ROM at the metatarsus-midfoot articulation (sagittal plane ROM 5.2° vs. 3.9°, MD 3.1°; coronal plane ROM 3.9 vs. 3.1°, MD 2.3°; transverse plane ROM 6.8° vs. 5.16°, MD 3.5°). Consequently, data from the metatarsus-midfoot articulation in the Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli (IOR) foot model in adults aged over 50 years needs to be considered with respect to the findings of this study. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ulrike; López, Damián A.; Silva-Busso, Adrián

    2018-04-01

    The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m)-1) and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The Fourcade Glacier catchment drains

  16. The cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for people aged 50 to 64 years: an international model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aballéa, Samuel; Chancellor, Jeremy; Martin, Monique; Wutzler, Peter; Carrat, Fabrice; Gasparini, Roberto; Toniolo-Neto, Joao; Drummond, Michael; Weinstein, Milton

    2007-01-01

    Routine influenza vaccination is currently recommended in several countries for people aged more than 60 or 65 years or with high risk of complications. A lower age threshold of 50 years has been recommended in the United States since 1999. To help policymakers consider whether such a policy should be adopted more widely, we conducted an economic evaluation of lowering the age limit for routine influenza vaccination to 50 years in Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy. The probabilistic model was designed to compare in a single season the costs and clinical outcomes associated with two alternative vaccination policies for persons aged 50 to 64 years: reimbursement only for people at high risk of complications (current policy), and reimbursement for all individuals in this age group (proposed policy). Two perspectives were considered: third-party payer (TPP) and societal. Model inputs were obtained primarily from the published literature and validated through expert opinion. The historical distribution of annual influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence was used to simulate the uncertain incidence in any given season. We estimated gains in unadjusted and quality-adjusted life expectancy, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Comparing the proposed to the current policy, the estimated mean costs per QALY gained were R$4,100, EURO 13,200, EURO 31,400 and EURO 15,700 for Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy, respectively, from a TPP perspective. From the societal perspective, the age-based policy is predicted to yield net cost savings in Germany and Italy, whereas the cost per QALY decreased to R$2800 for Brazil and EURO 8000 for France. The results were particularly sensitive to the ILI incidence rate, vaccine uptake, influenza fatality rate, and the costs of administering vaccination. Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold ratio of EURO 50,000 per QALY gained, the probabilities of the

  17. A full year evaluation of the CALIOPE-EU air quality modeling system over Europe for 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pay, M. T.; Piot, M.; Jorba, O.; Gassó, S.; Gonçalves, M.; Basart, S.; Dabdub, D.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Baldasano, J. M.

    The CALIOPE-EU high-resolution air quality modeling system, namely WRF-ARW/HERMES-EMEP/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b, is developed and applied to Europe (12 km × 12 km, 1 h). The model performances are tested in terms of air quality levels and dynamics reproducibility on a yearly basis. The present work describes a quantitative evaluation of gas phase species (O 3, NO 2 and SO 2) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) against ground-based measurements from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) network for the year 2004. The evaluation is based on statistics. Simulated O 3 achieves satisfactory performances for both daily mean and daily maximum concentrations, especially in summer, with annual mean correlations of 0.66 and 0.69, respectively. Mean normalized errors are comprised within the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA). The general trends and daily variations of primary pollutants (NO 2 and SO 2) are satisfactory. Daily mean concentrations of NO 2 correlate well with observations (annual correlation r = 0.67) but tend to be underestimated. For SO 2, mean concentrations are well simulated (mean bias = 0.5 μg m -3) with relatively high annual mean correlation ( r = 0.60), although peaks are generally overestimated. The dynamics of PM2.5 and PM10 is well reproduced (0.49 Deficiencies in particulate matter source characterization are discussed. Also, the spatially distributed statistics and the general patterns for each pollutant over Europe are examined. The model performances are compared with other European studies. While O 3 statistics generally remain lower than those obtained by the other considered studies, statistics for NO 2, SO 2, PM2.5 and PM10 present higher scores than most models.

  18. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  19. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  20. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  1. Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

    2012-04-01

    Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata

  2. Identifying the Optimal Offshore Areas for Wave Energy Converter Deployments in Taiwanese Waters Based on 12-Year Model Hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Ju Shih

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A 12-year sea-state hindcast for Taiwanese waters, covering the period from 2005 to 2016, was conducted using a fully coupled tide-surge-wave model. The hindcasts of significant wave height and peak period were employed to estimate the wave power resources in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Numerical simulations based on unstructured grids were converted to structured grids with a resolution of 25 × 25 km. The spatial distribution maps of offshore annual mean wave power were created for each year and for the 12-year period. Waters with higher wave power density were observed off the northern, northeastern, southeastern (south of Green Island and southeast of Lanyu and southern coasts of Taiwan. Five energetic sea areas with spatial average annual total wave energy density of 60–90 MWh/m were selected for further analysis. The 25 × 25 km square grids were then downscaled to resolutions of 5 × 5 km, and five 5 × 5 km optimal areas were identified for wave energy converter deployments. The spatial average annual total wave energy yields at the five optimal areas (S1–(S5 were estimated to be 64.3, 84.1, 84.5, 111.0 and 99.3 MWh/m, respectively. The prevailing wave directions for these five areas lie between east and northeast.

  3. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.Z. Baskent

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests.  This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies.Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalı district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey.Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETÇAP to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies.Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1194 ha (4%, the productive forest areas increased about 5397 ha (18% with a decrease of degraded forest (5824 ha, 20% and increase of maquis areas (2212 ha, 7%.The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11% due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized.Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively.Keywords: Forest management; simulation; optimization; forest dynamics; land use change.

  4. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baskent, E. Z.; Celik, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests. This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies. Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalt district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey. Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETCAP) to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies. Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1,194 ha (4%), the productive forest areas increased about 5,397 ha (18%) with a decrease of degraded forest (5,824 ha, 20%) and increase of maquis areas (2,212 ha, 7%).The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11%) due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized. Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively. (Author)

  5. 40 CFR Table 1 to Subpart IIIi of... - Emission Standards for Stationary Pre-2007 Model Year Engines With a Displacement of

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...-2007 Model Year Engines With a Displacement of 1 Table 1 to Subpart IIII of Part 60 Protection of... NEW STATIONARY SOURCES Standards of Performance for Stationary Compression Ignition Internal... Stationary Pre-2007 Model Year Engines With a Displacement of 2,237 KW (3,000 HP) and With a Displacement of...

  6. 40 CFR 86.008-10 - Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.008-10 Section 86.008-10 Protection of... Otto-cycle HDE. (d) Every manufacturer of new motor vehicle engines subject to the standards prescribed... production of heavy-duty Otto-cycle motor vehicle engines for model year 2008, except as explicitly allowed...

  7. 40 CFR 86.098-10 - Emission standards for 1998 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.098-10 Section 86.098-10 Protection of..., exhaust emissions from new 1998 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines shall not exceed: (i) For Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines fueled with either gasoline or liquefied petroleum gas, and intended...

  8. 40 CFR 86.005-10 - Emission standards for 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.005-10 Section 86.005-10 Protection of... AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions for Emission Regulations for 1977 and Later Model Year New Light-Duty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks and Heavy-Duty Engines, and for 1985 and Later...

  9. 40 CFR 86.004-11 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year diesel heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... This section applies to 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs. (a)(1) Exhaust emissions from new 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs shall not exceed the following: (i)(A) Oxides of Nitrogen plus Non... diesel HDE families in any or all of the emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the restrictions...

  10. Occurrence of blowing snow events at an alpine site over a 10-year period: Observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim Bouvet, F.; Martin, E.; Durand, Y.; Bellot, H.; Bel, C.; Puglièse, P.

    2013-05-01

    Blowing snow events control the evolution of the snow pack in mountainous areas and cause inhomogeneous snow distribution. The goal of this study is to identify the main features of blowing snow events at an alpine site and assess the ability of the detailed snowpack model Crocus to reproduce the occurrence of these events in a 1D configuration. We created a database of blowing snow events observed over 10 years at our experimental site. Occurrences of blowing snow events were divided into cases with and without concurrent falling snow. Overall, snow transport is observed during 10.5% of the time in winter and occurs with concurrent falling snow 37.3% of the time. Wind speed and snow age control the frequency of occurrence. Model results illustrate the necessity of taking the wind-dependence of falling snow grain characteristics into account to simulate periods of snow transport and mass fluxes satisfactorily during those periods. The high rate of false alarms produced by the model is investigated in detail for winter 2010/2011 using measurements from snow particle counters.

  11. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Research; Gustafsson, Bo [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden); Omstedt, Anders [SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times.

  12. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian; Omstedt, Anders

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times

  13. Reconstructing and modelling 71 years of forest growth in a Canadian boreal landscape : a test of the CBM-CFS3 carbon accounting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernier, P.Y.; Guindon, L. [Canadian Forest Service, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Laurentian Forestry Centre; Kurz, W.A.; Stinson, G. [Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC (Canada). Pacific Forestry Centre

    2010-01-15

    Modelled estimates have suggested that Canada's managed forests are now shifting from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon sources. This study evaluated the Canadian Forest Sector carbon budget model (CBM-CFS3). A reconstructed dataset of forest growth and disturbances encompassing a 62 km{sup 2} landscape spanning a 71 year period were used to demonstrate that the CBM-CFS3 simulations underestimated realized net biomass accrual by 10 per cent in undisturbed stands, and may also underestimate biomass accrual in disturbed stands. Results from the model were compared with mechanistic model predictions, flux-tower measurements of ecosystem carbon exchanges, and long-term observations of changes in biomass. The errors were attributed to the initial 1928 operational forest photointerpretation and inventory procedures used to determine merchantable volume and biomass. Regionally parameterized yield curves may also be contributing to errors. Results of the study suggested that long-term trends in climate or atmospheric composition may not have contributed to the bias. A similar exercise conducted in a Pacific coastal forest demonstrated a small relative impact on total carbon from forest management activities in the absence of natural disturbances. 30 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  14. Effects of climate change on productivity of cereals and legumes; model evaluation of observed year-to-year variability of the CO2 response.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grashoff, C.; Dijkstra, P.; Nonhebel, S.; Schapendonk, A.H.C.M.; Geijn, van de S.C.

    1995-01-01

    The effect of elevated [CO2] on the productivity of spring wheat, winter wheat and faba bean was studied in experiments in climatized crop enclosures in the Wageningen Rhizolab in 1991–93. Simulation models for crop growth were used to explore possible causes for the observed differences in the CO2

  15. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2016-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a 'Starkrimson' × 'Granny Smith' cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility of

  16. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Falk

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP. This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m−1 and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA. The

  17. Ten years of a model of aesthetic appreciation and aesthetic judgments : The aesthetic episode - Developments and challenges in empirical aesthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leder, Helmut; Nadal, Marcos

    2014-11-01

    About a decade ago, psychology of the arts started to gain momentum owing to a number of drives: technological progress improved the conditions under which art could be studied in the laboratory, neuroscience discovered the arts as an area of interest, and new theories offered a more comprehensive look at aesthetic experiences. Ten years ago, Leder, Belke, Oeberst, and Augustin (2004) proposed a descriptive information-processing model of the components that integrate an aesthetic episode. This theory offered explanations for modern art's large number of individualized styles, innovativeness, and for the diverse aesthetic experiences it can stimulate. In addition, it described how information is processed over the time course of an aesthetic episode, within and over perceptual, cognitive and emotional components. Here, we review the current state of the model, and its relation to the major topics in empirical aesthetics today, including the nature of aesthetic emotions, the role of context, and the neural and evolutionary foundations of art and aesthetics. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  18. The benefit of modeled ozone data for the reconstruction of a 99-year UV radiation time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Feister, U.; Helbig, A.; GöRgen, K.; Rozanov, E.; KrzyśCin, J. W.; Hoffmann, L.

    2012-08-01

    Solar erythemal UV radiation (UVER) is highly relevant for numerous biological processes that affect plants, animals, and human health. Nevertheless, long-term UVER records are scarce. As significant declines in the column ozone concentration were observed in the past and a recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is anticipated by the middle of the 21st century, there is a strong interest in the temporal variation of UVERtime series. Therefore, we combined ground-based measurements of different meteorological variables with modeled ozone data sets to reconstruct time series of daily totals of UVER at the Meteorological Observatory, Potsdam, Germany. Artificial neural networks were trained with measured UVER, sunshine duration, the day of year, measured and modeled total column ozone, as well as the minimum solar zenith angle. This allows for the reconstruction of daily totals of UVERfor the period from 1901 to 1999. Additionally, analyses of the long-term variations from 1901 until 1999 of the reconstructed, new UVER data set are presented. The time series of monthly and annual totals of UVERprovide a long-term meteorological basis for epidemiological investigations in human health and occupational medicine for the region of Potsdam and Berlin. A strong benefit of our ANN-approach is the fact that it can be easily adapted to different geographical locations, as successfully tested in the framework of the COSTAction 726.

  19. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-08-01

    Computational phantoms are commonly used in internal radiation dosimetry to assess the amount and distribution pattern of energy deposited in various parts of the human body from different internal radiation sources. Radiation dose assessments are commonly performed on predetermined reference computational phantoms while the argument for individualized patient-specific radiation dosimetry exists. This study aims to evaluate the influence of body habitus on internal dosimetry and to quantify the uncertainties in dose estimation correlated with the use of fixed reference models. The 5-year-old IT’IS male phantom was modified to match target anthropometric parameters, including body weight, body height and sitting height/stature ratio (SSR), determined from reference databases, thus enabling the creation of 125 5-year-old habitus-dependent male phantoms with 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile body morphometries. We evaluated the absorbed fractions and the mean absorbed dose to the target region per unit cumulative activity in the source region (S-values) of F-18 in 46 source regions for the generated 125 anthropomorphic 5-year-old hybrid male phantoms using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body

  20. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  1. Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Cochlear Implantation and Deaf Education in Nicaragua: A Disability Adjusted Life Year Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, James E; Barrs, David M; Gong, Wenfeng; Wilson, Blake S; Mojica, Karen; Tucci, Debara L

    2015-09-01

    Cochlear implantation (CI) is a common intervention for severe-to-profound hearing loss in high-income countries, but is not commonly available to children in low resource environments. Owing in part to the device costs, CI has been assumed to be less economical than deaf education for low resource countries. The purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of the two interventions for children with severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in a model using disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Cost estimates were derived from published data, expert opinion, and known costs of services in Nicaragua. Individual costs and lifetime DALY estimates with a 3% discounting rate were applied to both two interventions. Sensitivity analysis was implemented to evaluate the effect on the discounted cost of five key components: implant cost, audiology salary, speech therapy salary, number of children implanted per year, and device failure probability. The costs per DALY averted are $5,898 and $5,529 for CI and deaf education, respectively. Using standards set by the WHO, both interventions are cost effective. Sensitivity analysis shows that when all costs set to maximum estimates, CI is still cost effective. Using a conservative DALY analysis, both CI and deaf education are cost-effective treatment alternatives for severe-to-profound SNHL. CI intervention costs are not only influenced by the initial surgery and device costs but also by rehabilitation costs and the lifetime maintenance, device replacement, and battery costs. The major CI cost differences in this low resource setting were increased initial training and infrastructure costs, but lower medical personnel and surgery costs.

  2. [The changing profile of caregivers of persons aged 65 years and over with disabilities within a persisting family care model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zueras, Pilar; Spijker, Jeroen; Blanes, Amand

    The increasing participation of women in the workforce may make it difficult to sustain the current model of elderly care. The aim of this article was to determine the changing sociodemographic profile of informal elderly caregivers with disabilities, the interaction between employment and care, and the view of the public on the responsibility of that care. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from four national surveys were used: the disability surveys held in 1999 (N=3,936) and 2008 (N=5,257), the 2011-12 National Health Survey (N=439), and the Family and Gender survey of 2012 (N=1,359). They were analysed using contingency tables based on gender and age. Half of the informal caregivers were women aged 45 to 64 years. Between 1999 and 2011-12 they became more concentrated in the 55-64 age-bracket, among whom participation in the workforce doubled from 20% to 40%. Increased care for men was associated with unemployment. Care work had a negative impact on working life, with greater impact among women and those who cared for elderly people with severe disabilities. Less likely to consider that elderly care provision should rest on family are 45-54 year-old economically active women (only 42%) or those who are more educated (40%), compared to 60% of economically inactive women and 55% of less educated women. Economically active and educated women are less inclined to family-based care, but assume it independently of their workforce participation, whereas males do so according to their availability. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. Transmembrane signaling in Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model for signaling in metazoans: state of the art after 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelberg, David; Perlman, Riki; Levitzki, Alexander

    2014-12-01

    In the very first article that appeared in Cellular Signalling, published in its inaugural issue in October 1989, we reviewed signal transduction pathways in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Although this yeast was already a powerful model organism for the study of cellular processes, it was not yet a valuable instrument for the investigation of signaling cascades. In 1989, therefore, we discussed only two pathways, the Ras/cAMP and the mating (Fus3) signaling cascades. The pivotal findings concerning those pathways undoubtedly contributed to the realization that yeast is a relevant model for understanding signal transduction in higher eukaryotes. Consequently, the last 25 years have witnessed the discovery of many signal transduction pathways in S. cerevisiae, including the high osmotic glycerol (Hog1), Stl2/Mpk1 and Smk1 mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase pathways, the TOR, AMPK/Snf1, SPS, PLC1 and Pkr/Gcn2 cascades, and systems that sense and respond to various types of stress. For many cascades, orthologous pathways were identified in mammals following their discovery in yeast. Here we review advances in the understanding of signaling in S. cerevisiae over the last 25 years. When all pathways are analyzed together, some prominent themes emerge. First, wiring of signaling cascades may not be identical in all S. cerevisiae strains, but is probably specific to each genetic background. This situation complicates attempts to decipher and generalize these webs of reactions. Secondly, the Ras/cAMP and the TOR cascades are pivotal pathways that affect all processes of the life of the yeast cell, whereas the yeast MAP kinase pathways are not essential. Yeast cells deficient in all MAP kinases proliferate normally. Another theme is the existence of central molecular hubs, either as single proteins (e.g., Msn2/4, Flo11) or as multisubunit complexes (e.g., TORC1/2), which are controlled by numerous pathways and in turn determine the fate of the cell. It is also apparent that

  4. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2014-10-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is -0.24 mm day-1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the underestimation of

  5. Emission Inventory of On-Road Transport in Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR Development during 2007 to 2015 Using the GAINS Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Penwadee Cheewaphongphan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR, including the capital city and five adjacent provinces, constitutes one of the top 10 megacities experiencing serious traffic congestion in the world, leading to air quality problems with significant adverse human health risks. Previously, there have been many operations planned to influence the fuel consumption and emissions from the on-road transport sector in the BMR area. It is necessary to estimate emissions using detailed information in order to thoroughly understand the reason for changes in emission levels and their impact on air quality. This paper aims to determine the successful implementation of energy and air pollution control policies in Thailand through an investigation of the emissions inventory of on-road transport in BMR, including ozone precursors (CO, NOX, Non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs , greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, acidic substances (SO2 and NH3, and particulate matters (PM2.5, PM10, Black Carbon (BC, Organic Carbon (OC during the period from 2007 to 2015, using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS model based on the country-specific activity data together with the emission factor from the GAINS-Asia database. This study found that the amount of exhaust emissions over the BMR area in the year 2015 (and the trend during the period from 2007 to 2015 is approximately 139 kt of CO (−7.9%, 103 kt of NOX (−4.1%, 19.9 kt of NMVOC (−6.7%, 15 kt of CO2 (+1.6%, 8.6 kt of CH4 (+6.8%, 0.59 kt of N2O (+1.3%, 0.87 kt of SO2 (−25.8%, 1.1 kt of NH3 (+7.8%, 4.9 kt of PM2.5 (−5.5%, 5.1 kt of PM10 (−7.9%, 3.1 kt of BC (−2.5%, and 1.4 kt of OC (−7.7%. The change in emissions in each pollutant is a result of the more stringent control of fuel and engine standards, the shift in the fuel type used, and the effects of controlling some emissions. Light duty car gasoline fuel is identified as a major contributor of CO, NH3, N2O, and NMVOC, whereas

  6. In-use NOx emissions from model year 2010 and 2011 heavy-duty diesel engines equipped with aftertreatment devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Chandan; Collins, John F; Herner, Jorn D; Sax, Todd; Krishnamurthy, Mohan; Sobieralski, Wayne; Burntizki, Mark; Chernich, Don

    2013-07-16

    The California Air Resources Board (ARB) undertook this study to characterize the in-use emissions of model year (MY) 2010 or newer diesel engines. Emissions from four trucks: one equipped with an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and three equipped with EGR and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) device were measured on two different routes with three different payloads using a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) in the Sacramento area. Results indicated that brake-specific NOx emissions for the truck equipped only with an EGR were independent of the driving conditions. Results also showed that for typical highway driving conditions, the SCR technology is proving to be effective in controlling NOx emissions. However, under operations where the SCR's do not reach minimum operating temperature, like cold starts and some low load/slow speed driving conditions, NOx emissions are still elevated. The study indicated that strategies used to maintain exhaust temperature above a certain threshold, which are used in some of the newer SCRs, have the potential to control NOx emissions during certain low-load/slow speed driving conditions.

  7. The deaf strong hospital program: a model of diversity and inclusion training for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thew, Denise; Smith, Scott R; Chang, Christopher; Starr, Matt

    2012-11-01

    Recent research indicates that the cultural competence training students receive during medical school might not adequately address the issues that arise when caring for patients of different cultures. Because of their unique communication, linguistic, and cultural issues, incorporating deaf people who use sign language into cultural competence education at medical schools might help to bridge this gap in cross-cultural education. The Deaf Strong Hospital (DSH) program at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, started in 1998, exposes first-year medical students to the issues that are relevant to providing effective patient care and to establishing multicultural sensitivity early in their medical education. Because medical students better acquire cross-cultural competence through hands-on experience rather than through lectures, the DSH program, which includes a role-reversal exercise in which medical students play the role of the patients, provides such a model for other medical schools and health care training centers to use in teaching future health care providers how to address the relevant cultural, linguistic, and communication needs of both their deaf patients and their non-English-speaking patients. This article describes the DSH program curriculum, shares findings from both medical students' short-term and long-term postprogram evaluations, and provides a framework for the implementation of a broader cultural and linguistic sensitivity training program specific to working with and improving the quality of health care among deaf people.

  8. Visibility of children behind 2010-2013 model year passenger vehicles using glances, mirrors, and backup cameras and parking sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidd, David G; Brethwaite, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    This study identified the areas behind vehicles where younger and older children are not visible and measured the extent to which vehicle technologies improve visibility. Rear visibility of targets simulating the heights of a 12-15-month-old, a 30-36-month-old, and a 60-72-month-old child was assessed in 21 2010-2013 model year passenger vehicles with a backup camera or a backup camera plus parking sensor system. The average blind zone for a 12-15-month-old was twice as large as it was for a 60-72-month-old. Large SUVs had the worst rear visibility and small cars had the best. Increases in rear visibility provided by backup cameras were larger than the non-visible areas detected by parking sensors, but parking sensors detected objects in areas near the rear of the vehicle that were not visible in the camera or other fields of view. Overall, backup cameras and backup cameras plus parking sensors reduced the blind zone by around 90 percent on average and have the potential to prevent backover crashes if drivers use the technology appropriately. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Promoting Metacognition in First Year Anatomy Laboratories Using Plasticine Modeling and Drawing Activities: A Pilot Study of the "Blank Page" Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naug, Helen L.; Colson, Natalie J.; Donner, Daniel G.

    2011-01-01

    Many first year students of anatomy and physiology courses demonstrate an inability to self-regulate their learning. To help students increase their awareness of their own learning in a first year undergraduate anatomy course, we piloted an exercise that incorporated the processes of (1) active learning: drawing and plasticine modeling and (2)…

  10. III. Heterogeneous Polymerization. Modeling of emulsion polymerization, will it ever be possible? Part 2: Determination of Basic Kinetic data over the last ten years.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herk, van A.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling of Emulsion polymerization processes is based on the knowledge of fundamental kinetic and thermodynamic parameters. The most important kinetic parameters are propagation and termination rate coefficients. Ten years ago a paper has been published with the title Modeling of Emulsion

  11. Behavioural Outcomes of Four-Year-Old Children Prenatally Exposed to Methadone or Buprenorphine: A Test of Three Risk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konijnenberg, Carolien; Lund, Ingunn Olea; Melinder, Annika

    2015-01-01

    It is still under debate whether the reported effects of opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) on child behaviour are a direct effect of prenatal exposure, or whether other factors are involved. This prospective cohort study investigated three models: the teratogenic risk model, the maternal risk model, and a combined risk model in a group of 35…

  12. Five year experience in management of perforated peptic ulcer and validation of common mortality risk prediction models - are existing models sufficient? A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbalakan, K; Chua, D; Pandya, G J; Shelat, V G

    2015-02-01

    Emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Accurate and early risk stratification is important. The primary aim of this study is to validate the various existing MRPMs and secondary aim is to audit our experience of managing PPU. 332 patients who underwent emergency surgery for PPU at a single intuition from January 2008 to December 2012 were studied. Clinical and operative details were collected. Four MRPMs: American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, Boey's score, Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and Peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score were validated. Median age was 54.7 years (range 17-109 years) with male predominance (82.5%). 61.7% presented within 24 h of onset of abdominal pain. Median length of stay was 7 days (range 2-137 days). Intra-abdominal collection, leakage, re-operation and 30-day mortality rates were 8.1%, 2.1%, 1.2% and 7.2% respectively. All the four MRPMs predicted intra-abdominal collection and mortality; however, only MPI predicted leak (p = 0.01) and re-operation (p = 0.02) rates. The area under curve for predicting mortality was 75%, 72%, 77.2% and 75% for ASA score, Boey's score, MPI and PULP score respectively. Emergency surgery for PPU has low morbidity and mortality in our experience. MPI is the only scoring system which predicts all - intra-abdominal collection, leak, reoperation and mortality. All four MRPMs had a similar and fair accuracy to predict mortality, however due to geographic and demographic diversity and inherent weaknesses of exiting MRPMs, quest for development of an ideal model should continue. Copyright © 2015 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Spatial and temporal modelling of fluvial aggradation in the Hasli Valley (Swiss Alps) during the last 1300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Jaime; Schulte, Lothar; Carvalho, Filipe

    2016-04-01

    process. Results suggest a longitudinal decrease of sedimentation rates from the apex towards the distal section of the delta plain. Differences in rates are also found within each cross-section (e.g. channel-levée: higher rates; interdistributary depression: lower rates), suggesting an asymmetric growth of the floodplain. A GIS paleosurfaces model was executed to calculate the fluvial sediment storage, which was subdivided in 300-year time slices, thus contributing to identify temporal trends in floodplain aggradation. The results were analyzed with regard to external drivers that control the sedimentation processes in the Haslital delta, such as climate and/or anthropogenic factors (land-use changes, hydraulic management), as well as the influence of the internal system settings. The facies-based approach provides an explanation of both the spatial and temporal components of delta plain formation; and produces valid information for local flood risk management, concerning the problem of alpine floodplains aggradation.

  14. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D.; Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T.; Husted, B.; Magnusson, T.; Joerud, F.

    2013-05-01

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  15. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  16. Changes of net primary productivity in China during recent 11 years detected using an ecological model driven by MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yibo; Ju, Weimin; He, Honglin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Yuandong

    2013-03-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Accurately mapping the spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China is crucial for global carbon cycling study. In this study the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was employed to study the changes of NPP in China's ecosystems for the period from 2000 to 2010. The BEPS model was first validated using gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at typical flux sites and forest NPP measured at different regions. Then it was driven with leaf area index (LAI) inversed from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products and meteorological data interpolated from observations at 753 national basic meteorological stations to simulate NPP at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 500 m from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Validations show that BEPS is able to capture the seasonal variations of tower-based GPP and the spatial variability of forest NPP in different regions of China. Estimated national total of annual NPP varied from 2.63 to 2.84Pg C·yr-1, averaging 2.74 Pg C·yr-1 during the study period. Simulated terrestrial NPP shows spatial patterns decreasing from the east to the west and from the south to the north, in association with land cover types and climate. South-west China makes the largest contribution to the national total of NPP while NPP in the North-west account for only 3.97% of the national total. During the recent 11 years, the temporal changes of NPP were heterogamous. NPP increased in 63.8% of China's landmass, mainly in areas north of the Yangtze River and decreased in most areas of southern China, owing to the low temperature freezing in early 2008 and the severe drought in late 2009.

  17. Marker-based or model-based RSA for evaluation of hip resurfacing arthroplasty? A clinical validation and 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzen, Nina Dyrberg; Stilling, Maiken; Jakobsen, Stig Storgaard; Gustafson, Klas; Søballe, Kjeld; Baad-Hansen, Thomas

    2013-11-01

    The stability of implants is vital to ensure a long-term survival. RSA determines micro-motions of implants as a predictor of early implant failure. RSA can be performed as a marker- or model-based analysis. So far, CAD and RE model-based RSA have not been validated for use in hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA). A phantom study determined the precision of marker-based and CAD and RE model-based RSA on a HRA implant. In a clinical study, 19 patients were followed with stereoradiographs until 5 years after surgery. Analysis of double-examination migration results determined the clinical precision of marker-based and CAD model-based RSA, and at the 5-year follow-up, results of the total translation (TT) and the total rotation (TR) for marker- and CAD model-based RSA were compared. The phantom study showed that comparison of the precision (SDdiff) in marker-based RSA analysis was more precise than model-based RSA analysis in TT (p CAD RSA analysis (p = 0.002), but showed no difference between the marker- and CAD model-based RSA analysis regarding the TR (p = 0.91). Comparing the mean signed values regarding the TT and the TR at the 5-year follow-up in 13 patients, the TT was lower (p = 0.03) and the TR higher (p = 0.04) in the marker-based RSA compared to CAD model-based RSA. The precision of marker-based RSA was significantly better than model-based RSA. However, problems with occluded markers lead to exclusion of many patients which was not a problem with model-based RSA. HRA were stable at the 5-year follow-up. The detection limit was 0.2 mm TT and 1° TR for marker-based and 0.5 mm TT and 1° TR for CAD model-based RSA for HRA.

  18. The Cost-Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination for People Aged 50 to 64 Years: An International Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aballéa, Samuel; Chancellor, Jeremy; Martin, Monique; Wutzler, Peter; Carrat, Fabrice; Gasparini, Roberto; Toniolo-Neto, Joao; Drummond, Michael; Weinstein, Milton

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: Routine influenza vaccination is currently recommended in several countries for people aged more than 60 or 65 years or with high risk of complications. A lower age threshold of 50 years has been recommended in the United States since 1999. To help policymakers consider whether such a policy should be adopted more widely, we conducted an economic evaluation of lowering the age limit for routine influenza vaccination to 50 years in Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy.Methods: the pr...

  19. Fleet average NOx emission performance of 2004 model year light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations came into effect on January 1, 2004. The regulations introduced more stringent national emission standards for on-road vehicles and engines, and also required that companies submit reports containing information concerning the company's fleets. This report presented a summary of the regulatory requirements relating to nitric oxide (NO x ) fleet average emissions for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles under the new regulations. The effectiveness of the Canadian fleet average NO x emission program at achieving environmental performance objectives was also evaluated. A summary of the fleet average NO x emission performance of individual companies was presented, as well as the overall Canadian fleet average of the 2004 model year based on data submitted by companies in their end of model year reports. A total of 21 companies submitted reports covering 2004 model year vehicles in 10 test groups, comprising 1,350,719 vehicles of the 2004 model year manufactured or imported for the purpose of sale in Canada. The average NO x value for the entire Canadian LDV/LDT fleet was 0.2016463 grams per mile. The average NO x values for the entire Canadian HLDT/MDPV fleet was 0.321976 grams per mile. It was concluded that the NO x values for both fleets were consistent with the environmental performance objectives of the regulations for the 2004 model year. 9 tabs

  20. Change Management Model for Implementing an Effective First-Year Experience Program in the Community College Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Joy C.

    2015-01-01

    This study provides evidence that systematic management of change can facilitate the implementation of first-year experience programming that leads to improved results in retention and student success for community college students. The study includes four major themes: (a) first-year experience, (b) change management, (c) change leadership, and…

  1. Perceptions of five-year competitive categories: model of how relative age influences competitiveness in masters sport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medic, Nikola; Young, Bradley W; Grove, J Robert

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contrasting perceptions of masters swimmers related to the first and fifth constituent years of a 5-year age category. Swimmers aged between 35 and 93 years (154 male, 184 female) were surveyed at the 2008 FINA World Masters Championships. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of the following five factors considered important for preparation, attendance, and success at masters competitions: awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity. One sample t-tests showed that masters swimmers are conscious of advantages that 5-year age categories afford to relatively-younger cohorts (i.e., those who are in the first year of any age category). They also perceive that, in the first compared to the fifth year of an age category, they have greater physiological capacity, engage in more training, have higher expectations to perform well, and are more motivated (all ps competitions than relatively older masters athletes. Key PointsThere are at least five psycho-social and physical factors (i.e., awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity) that may explain why relatively younger masters athletes are more likely to perform better and to participate more in masters competitions than relatively older masters athletes.Masters athletes are conscious of the advantage that 5-year age categories afford to relatively younger cohorts of athletes.Differential perceptions associated with the 5-year age categories might compromise masters athletes' continuity of sport competitiveness and underlying training.

  2. Mixed butanols addition to gasoline surrogates: Shock tube ignition delay time measurements and chemical kinetic modeling

    KAUST Repository

    AlRamadan, Abdullah S.

    2015-10-01

    The demand for fuels with high anti-knock quality has historically been rising, and will continue to increase with the development of downsized and turbocharged spark-ignition engines. Butanol isomers, such as 2-butanol and tert-butanol, have high octane ratings (RON of 105 and 107, respectively), and thus mixed butanols (68.8% by volume of 2-butanol and 31.2% by volume of tert-butanol) can be added to the conventional petroleum-derived gasoline fuels to improve octane performance. In the present work, the effect of mixed butanols addition to gasoline surrogates has been investigated in a high-pressure shock tube facility. The ignition delay times of mixed butanols stoichiometric mixtures were measured at 20 and 40bar over a temperature range of 800-1200K. Next, 10vol% and 20vol% of mixed butanols (MB) were blended with two different toluene/n-heptane/iso-octane (TPRF) fuel blends having octane ratings of RON 90/MON 81.7 and RON 84.6/MON 79.3. These MB/TPRF mixtures were investigated in the shock tube conditions similar to those mentioned above. A chemical kinetic model was developed to simulate the low- and high-temperature oxidation of mixed butanols and MB/TPRF blends. The proposed model is in good agreement with the experimental data with some deviations at low temperatures. The effect of mixed butanols addition to TPRFs is marginal when examining the ignition delay times at high temperatures. However, when extended to lower temperatures (T < 850K), the model shows that the mixed butanols addition to TPRFs causes the ignition delay times to increase and hence behaves like an octane booster at engine-like conditions. © 2015 The Combustion Institute.

  3. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  4. 40 CFR 1039.102 - What exhaust emission standards and phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... for any engine family in the 56-130 kW power category is 2.3 g/kW-hr for model years 2012 and 2013...-unit engine family in the 75-130 kW power category may be certified to meet the standards for PM, NMHC... the first four years of the Tier 4 standards for the applicable power category, as allowed in § 1039...

  5. Vanishing Boundaries between Science and Art: Modelling Effective Middle Years of Schooling Practice in Pre-Service Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paige, Kathryn; Whitney, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes an innovation in science pre-service education that endeavours to increase student engagement in learning and doing science in the middle years through integrating science, mathematics and art. (Contains 8 figures.)

  6. Comparing Mortality of Peritoneal and Hemodialysis Patients in the First 2 Years of Dialysis Therapy: A Marginal Structural Model Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukowsky, Lilia R.; Mehrotra, Rajnish; Kheifets, Leeka; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Nissenson, Allen R.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

    2013-01-01

    Background and objectives There are conflicting research results about the survival differences between hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, especially during the first 2 years of dialysis treatment. Given the challenges of conducting randomized trials, differential rates of modality switch and

  7. Analysis of the benefits of designing and implementing a virtual didactic model of multiple choice exam and problem-solving heuristic report, for first year engineering students

    OpenAIRE

    Bennun, Leonardo; Santibanez, Mauricio

    2015-01-01

    Improvements in performance and approval obtained by first year engineering students from University of Concepcion, Chile, were studied, once a virtual didactic model of multiple-choice exam, was implemented. This virtual learning resource was implemented in the Web ARCO platform and allows training, by facing test models comparable in both time and difficulty to those that they will have to solve during the course. It also provides a feedback mechanism for both: 1) The students, since they c...

  8. One-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisci, Emiliano; de Donato, Gianmarco; Fargion, Aaron; Ventoruzzo, Giorgio; Parlani, Gianbattista; Setacci, Carlo; Ercolini, Leonardo; Michelagnoli, Stefano

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to report the methodology and 1-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease (TAAD). Complex TAADs without a feasible conventional surgical repair were prospectively evaluated by vascular surgeons of the same public health service (National Health System) located in a huge area of 22,994 km 2 with 3.7 million inhabitants and 11 tertiary hospitals. Surgeons evaluated computed tomography scans and clinical details that were placed on a web platform (Google Drive; Google, Mountain View, Calif) and shared by all surgeons. Patients gave informed consent for the teleconsultation. The surgeon who submits a case discusses in detail his or her case and proposes a possible therapeutic strategy. The other surgeons suggest other solutions and options in terms of grafts, techniques, or access to be used. Computed tomography angiography, angiography, and clinical outcomes of cases are then presented at the following telemeetings, and a final agreement of the operative strategy is evaluated. Teleconsultation is performed using a web conference service (WebConference.com; Avaya Inc, Basking Ridge, NJ) every month. An inter-rater agreement statistic was calculated, and the κ value was interpreted according to Altman's criteria for computed tomography angiography measurements. The rate of participation was constant (mean number of surgeons, 11; range, 9-15). Twenty-four complex TAAD cases were discussed for planning and operation during the study period. The interobserver reliability recorded was moderate (κ = 0.41-0.60) to good (κ = 0.61-0.80) for measurements of proximal and distal sealing and very good (κ = 0.81-1) for detection of any target vessel angulation >60 degrees, significant calcification (circumferential), and thrombus presence (>50%). The concordance for planning and therapeutic strategy among all participants was complete in 16 cases. In

  9. Burden of Disease Measured by Disability-Adjusted Life Years and a Disease Forecasting Time Series Model of Scrub Typhus in Laiwu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Li-Ping; Liang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Xian-Jun; Li, Xiu-Jun; Wu, Yan-Ling; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Background Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles. Methodology/Principal Findings A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60–69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October. Conclusions/Significance Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease. PMID:25569248

  10. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  11. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  12. The Effect of Teaching Model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ toward Students’ Achievement in Learning Mathematic at X Years Class SMA Negeri 1 Banuhampu 2013/2014 Academic Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeni, N.; Suryabayu, E. P.; Handayani, T.

    2017-02-01

    Based on the survey showed that mathematics teacher still dominated in teaching and learning process. The process of learning is centered on the teacher while the students only work based on instructions provided by the teacher without any creativity and activities that stimulate students to explore their potential. Realized the problem above the writer interested in finding the solution by applying teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’. The purpose of his research is to know whether teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than conventional teaching in teaching mathematic. The type of the research is quasi experiment by Randomized Control test Group Only Design. The population in this research were all X years class students. The sample is chosen randomly after doing normality, homogeneity test and average level of students’ achievement. As the sample of this research was X.7’s class as experiment class used teaching model learning cycles 5E and X.8’s class as control class used conventional teaching. The result showed us that the students achievement in the class that used teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than the class which did not use the model.

  13. FMCSA Safety Program Effectiveness Measurement: Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1 Report for Fiscal Year 2014 Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  14. Repository seal materials performance for a SALT Repository Project 5-year code/model development plan: Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-06-01

    This document describes an integrated laboratory testing and model development effort for the seal system for a high-level nuclear waste repository in salt. The testing and modeling efforts are designed to determine seal material response in the repository environment, to provide models of seal system components for performance assessment, and to assist in the development of seal system designs. A code/model development and performance analysis program will be performed to predict the short- and long-term response of seal materials and seal components. The results from these analyses will be used to support the material testing activities on this contract and to support performance assessment activities that are conducted in other parts of the Salt Repository Project (SRP). 48 refs., 15 figs., 4 tabs

  15. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1, report for fiscal year 2013 interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  16. Developing groundwater flow and transport models for radioactive waste disposal - six years of experience from the INTRAVAL project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, N.; Andersson, J.; Bogorinski, P.; Carrera, J.; Hadermann, J.; Hodgkinson, D.; Jackson, P.; Neretnieks, I.; Neuman, S.; Skagius, K.; Nicholson, T.; Chin-Fu Tsang; Voss, C.

    1995-01-01

    The validity of informations and the models used to make predictions is central to the credibility of a performance assessment for a radioactive waste repository. The INTRAVAL project has been set up to bring together users of models and regulatory agencies from many countries to share experience, to carry out comparison exercises, and to build an internationally accepted approach to develop and apply both the models and the approach to prediction. This paper outlines the methodology adopted to evaluate the 18 different test cases of phases 1 and 2 of the project and which concern hard fractured rocks, plastic clays, mixed sedimentary and unsaturated geological environments at many scales, with observations and interpretations on a very wide range of space and time scales. Modelling has been tested by multiple groups against real data and the project integrated exercise,s both in the field and at the laboratory, for various spatial scales. (J.S.). 7 refs., 1 tab

  17. An evaluation of Arctic cloud and radiation processes during the SHEBA year: simulation results from eight Arctic regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyser, K.; Willen, U. [Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Jones, C.G.; Du, P.; Girard, E.; Laprise, R. [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network, Montreal (Canada); Cassano, J.; Serreze, M.; Shaw, M.J. [University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); Christensen, J.H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark); Curry, J.A. [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Dethloff, K.; Rinke, A. [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit, Potsdam (Germany); Haugen, J.-E.; Koeltzow, M. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway); Jacob, D.; Pfeifer, S. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lynch, A. [Monash University, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Melbourne (Australia); Tjernstroem, M.; Zagar, M. [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2008-02-15

    Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project. The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions. Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages, many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic. (orig.)

  18. Understanding landscape dynamics over thousand years : combining field and model work : with case study in the Drakensberg foothill, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.

    2008-01-01

    The title of this thesis is “Understanding landscape dynamics over thousands of years : combining field and model work, with a case study in the Drakensberg Foothills, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa”. As the title clearly states, the overall objective is an increased knowledge of landscape dynamics

  19. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  20. How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model. Appendix A & B

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Endowment for the Arts, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents two appendices supporting the "How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model" report. In Appendix A, brief descriptions of relevant studies and datasets for each node in the "How Art Works" system map are presented. This appendix is meant to supply…

  1. 40 CFR 86.099-10 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.099-10 Section 86.099-10 Protection of... to Otto-cycle engines used in such MDPVs, except as specified in subpart S of this part. The term... AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions for Emission Regulations for 1977 and Later...

  2. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River. [Effects of entrainment and impingement at power plants on population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River.

  3. An Integrated Model of Academic Self-Concept Development: Academic Self-Concept, Grades, Test Scores, and Tracking over 6 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Herbert W.; Pekrun, Reinhard; Murayama, Kou; Arens, A. Katrin; Parker, Philip D.; Guo, Jiesi; Dicke, Theresa

    2018-01-01

    Our newly proposed integrated academic self-concept model integrates 3 major theories of academic self-concept formation and developmental perspectives into a unified conceptual and methodological framework. Relations among math self-concept (MSC), school grades, test scores, and school-level contextual effects over 6 years, from the end of…

  4. Between-year survival and rank transitions in male Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) : A multistate modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schubert, Kristin A.; Mennill, Daniel J.; Ramsay, Scott M.; Otter, Ken A.; Ratcliffe, Laurene M.; Kraus, Cornelia

    In dominance-structured animal societies, variation in individual fitness is often related to social status. Like many passerine birds, Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) have a short average adult life-expectancy (similar to 2 years); however, the maximum recorded life span is >5x as

  5. Academic Performance of First-Year Students at a College of Pharmacy in East Tennessee: Models for Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavier, Cheri Whitehead

    2013-01-01

    With the increase of students applying to pharmacy programs, it is imperative that admissions committees choose appropriate measures to analyze student readiness. The purpose of this research was to identify significant factors that predict the academic performance, defined as grade point average (GPA) at the end of the first professional year, of…

  6. Modeling Developmental Changes in Functional Capacities and Soccer-Specific Skills in Male Players Aged 11-17 Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valente-dos-Santos, Joao; Coelho-e-Silva, Manuel J.; Simoes, Filipe; Figueiredo, Antonio J.; Leite, Neiva; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T.; Malina, Robert M.; Sherar, Lauren

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluates the contributions of age. growth, skeletal maturation, playing position and training to longitudinal changes in functional and skill performance in male youth soccer. Players were annually followed over 5 years (n = 83, 4.4 measurements per player). Composite scores for

  7. Atmospheric Modeling of the Martian Polar Regions: One Mars Year of CRISM EPF Observations of the South Pole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A. J.; Wolff, M. J.

    2009-03-01

    We have used CRISM Emission Phase Function gimballed observations to investigate atmospheric dust/ice opacity and surface albedo in the south polar region for the first Mars year of MRO operations. This covers the MY28 "dust event" and cap recession.

  8. Evaluation of the rusle and disturbed wepp erosion models for predicting soil loss in the first year after wildfire in NW Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A

    2018-05-04

    Severe fire greatly increases soil erosion rates and overland-flow in forest land. Soil erosion prediction models are essential for estimating fire impacts and planning post-fire emergency responses. We evaluated the performance of a) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), modified by inclusion of an alternative equation for the soil erodibility factor, and b) the Disturbed WEPP model, by comparing the soil loss predicted by the models and the soil loss measured in the first year after wildfire in 44 experimental field plots in NW Spain. The Disturbed WEPP has not previously been validated with field data for use in NW Spain; validation studies are also very scarce in other areas. We found that both models underestimated the erosion rates. The accuracy of the RUSLE model was low, even after inclusion of a modified soil erodibility factor accounting for high contents of soil organic matter. We conclude that neither model is suitable for predicting soil erosion in the first year after fire in NW Spain and suggest that soil burn severity should be given greater weighting in post-fire soil erosion modelling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2013-01-01

    The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the

  10. Surface ozone pollution in Poland - observations and modelling support for a two-year assessment 2012-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzewska, Joanna; Kaminski, Jacek W.; Durka, Pawel

    2015-04-01

    The concentrations of near-surface ozone in terms of long term objectives and target values are exceeded at many monitoring sites in Poland. At the request of the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection, an assessment of ozone impact on human health and ecosystems in Poland was undertaken, based on the GEM-AQ model calculations for the period 2012-2013. GEM-AQ (Kaminski et al., 2008) is a comprehensive chemical weather model where air quality processes (chemistry and aerosols) are implemented on-line in the operational weather prediction model developed at Environment Canada (Cote et al., 1998). For this project the model was run in a self-nesting mode with the target grid centered over Poland with the resolution of 5 km. The EMEP emission inventory was refined based on GIS information. Modelling results were evaluated against ozone and NO2 measurements from available monitoring stations in Poland using the DeltaTool developed in the scope of FAIRMODE. We will present exposure levels to high ozone concentrations in terms of number of days with exceeded target values as well as indices AOT40 and SOMO35. Differences between exposure diagnostics in 2012 and 2013 will be discussed.

  11. Using the Continuum of Design Modelling Techniques to Aid the Development of CAD Modeling Skills in First Year Industrial Design Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, I. J.; Campbell, R. I.

    2012-01-01

    Industrial Designers need to understand and command a number of modelling techniques to communicate their ideas to themselves and others. Verbal explanations, sketches, engineering drawings, computer aided design (CAD) models and physical prototypes are the most commonly used communication techniques. Within design, unlike some disciplines,…

  12. Sixty years of broken symmetries in quantum physics (from the Bogoliubov theory of superfluidity to the Standard Model)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirkov, Dmitrii V

    2009-01-01

    This is a retrospective historical review of the ideas that led to the concept of the spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB), the issue that has been implemented in quantum field theory in the form of the Higgs mechanism. The key stages covered include: the Bogoliubov microscopic theory of superfluidity (1946); the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer-Bogoliubov microscopic theory of superconductivity (1957); superconductivity as superfluidity of Cooper pairs (Bogoliubov, 1958); the extension of the SSB concept to simple quantum field models (early 1960s); triumph of the Higgs model in electroweak theory (early 1980s). The role and status of the Higgs mechanism in the current Standard Model are discussed. (oral issue of the journal 'uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk')

  13. Comparison of Bayesian network and support vector machine models for two-year survival prediction in lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayasurya, K.; Fung, G.; Yu, S.; Dehing-Oberije, C.; De Ruysscher, D.; Hope, A.; De Neve, W.; Lievens, Y.; Lambin, P.; Dekker, A. L. A. J.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Classic statistical and machine learning models such as support vector machines (SVMs) can be used to predict cancer outcome, but often only perform well if all the input variables are known, which is unlikely in the medical domain. Bayesian network (BN) models have a natural ability to reason under uncertainty and might handle missing data better. In this study, the authors hypothesize that a BN model can predict two-year survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients as accurately as SVM, but will predict survival more accurately when data are missing. Methods: A BN and SVM model were trained on 322 inoperable NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy from Maastricht and validated in three independent data sets of 35, 47, and 33 patients from Ghent, Leuven, and Toronto. Missing variables occurred in the data set with only 37, 28, and 24 patients having a complete data set. Results: The BN model structure and parameter learning identified gross tumor volume size, performance status, and number of positive lymph nodes on a PET as prognostic factors for two-year survival. When validated in the full validation set of Ghent, Leuven, and Toronto, the BN model had an AUC of 0.77, 0.72, and 0.70, respectively. A SVM model based on the same variables had an overall worse performance (AUC 0.71, 0.68, and 0.69) especially in the Ghent set, which had the highest percentage of missing the important GTV size data. When only patients with complete data sets were considered, the BN and SVM model performed more alike. Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, the hypothesis is supported that BN models are better at handling missing data than SVM models and are therefore more suitable for the medical domain. Future works have to focus on improving the BN performance by including more patients, more variables, and more diversity.

  14. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  15. Transfer of Problem Solving Skills from Touchscreen to 3D Model by 3- to 6-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasuik, Joanne; Demaria, Ana; Kaufman, Jordy

    2017-01-01

    Although much published research purports that young children struggle to solve problems from screen-based media and to transfer learning from a virtual to a physical modality, Huber et al. (2016)'s recent study on children solving the Tower of Hanoi (ToH) problem on a touchscreen app offers a clear counter example. Huber et al. (2016) reported that children transferred learning from media to the physical world. As this finding arguably differs from that of prior research in this area, the current study tests whether the Huber et al. (2016) results could be replicated. Additionally, we extended the scope of the Huber et al. (2016) work by testing a broader age range, including children as young as 3 years, and using a culturally distinct participant pool. The results of the current study verified Huber et al.'s (2016) conclusion that 4- to 6-year-old children are capable of transferring the ToH learning from touchscreen devices to the physical version of the puzzle. Children under 4 years of age, in contrast, showed little ability to improve at the ToH problem regardless of the practice modality-suggesting that a different problem-solving task is required to probe very young children's ability to learn from touchscreen apps.

  16. A new method of modelling early plasma creatinine changes predicts 1-year graft function after kidney transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogstrup, Nicoline V; Bibby, Bo Martin; Aulbjerg, Camilla

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Delayed graft function after renal transplantation is associated with inferior long-term outcome. To evaluate the impact of slow onset graft function, we aimed to model and correlate early changes in plasma creatinine (p-cr) with long-term graft function. MATERIALS: In a single centre...

  17. Application of Strategic Institutional-Information Technology Alignment Model in Four-Year Institutions of Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lach-Smith, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    This study examined an existing corporate model of business-information technology alignment for application in higher education and tested the findings by surveying executive and technology leaders in higher education. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact alignment between institutional strategic…

  18. Effect of 5E Instructional Model in Student Success in Primary School 6th Year Circulatory System Topic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardak, Osman; Dikmenli, Musa; Saritas, Ozge

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to research the effect of the 5E instructional model on primary (sixth grade) student success during the circulatory system unit. This study was conducted with 38 students in two different classes by the same researcher in 2006-2007. One of the classes was assigned as the control group and the other as the experimental…

  19. The Job Demands-Job Control Model and absence behaviour : results of a 3-year longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.G.W.; Nijhuis, F.J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical results of earlier studies only marginally supported the relevance of Karasek's Job Demands-Job Control Model for absence behaviour. Since longitudinal studies with respect to these relations were largely lacking, a four-wave panel study was carried out using data from 1755 male employees

  20. A Multi-Year Study of the Impact of the Rice Model Teacher Professional Development on Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaconu, Dana Viorica; Radigan, Judy; Suskavcevic, Milijana; Nichol, Carolyn

    2012-01-01

    A teacher professional development program for in-service elementary school science teachers, the Rice Elementary Model Science Lab (REMSL), was developed for urban school districts serving predominately high-poverty, high-minority students. Teachers with diverse skills and science capacities came together in Professional Learning Communities, one…

  1. Language, motor and cognitive development of extremely preterm children: modeling individual growth trajectories over the first three years of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansavini, Alessandra; Pentimonti, Jill; Justice, Laura; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Survival rate of extremely low gestational age (ELGA) newborns has increased over 80% in the last 15 years, but its consequences on the short- and longer-term developmental competencies may be severe. The aim of this study was to describe growth trajectories of linguistic, motor and cognitive skills among ELGA children, compared to full-term (FT) peers, from the first to the third year of life, a crucial period for development. Growth curve analysis was used to examine individual and group differences in terms of initial status at 12 months and rate of growth through the second and the third year of life with five points of assessment. Twenty-eight monolingual Italian children, of whom 17 were ELGA (mean GA 25.7 weeks) and 11 were FT children, were assessed through the BSID-III at 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 months for language skills and at 12, 24 and 30 months for motor and cognitive skills. ELGA children presented significantly lower scores than FT peers in language, motor and cognitive skills and they did not overcome their disadvantage by 3 years, even if their corrected age was taken into account. Concerning growth curves, in motor development a significant increasing divergence was found showing a Matthew effect with the preterm sample falling further behind the FT sample. In linguistic and cognitive development, instead, a stable gap between the two samples was found. In addition, great inter-individual differences in rate of change were observed for language development in both samples. Our findings highlight the theoretical and clinical relevance of analyzing, through growth curve analyses, the developmental trajectories of ELGA children in language skills taking into account their inter-individual variability also across motor and cognitive domains. After reading this article, the reader will interpret: (a) characteristics and growth trajectories of ELGA children from the first to the third year of life with respect to FT children in language, motor and

  2. Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

    2018-06-01

    Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Tailoring Breast Cancer Screening Intervals by Breast Density and Risk for Women Aged 50 Years or Older: Collaborative Modeling of Screening Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Kerlikowske, Karla; Stout, Natasha K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Schechter, Clyde B; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Sprague, Brian L; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Near, Aimee M; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Chandler, Young; de Koning, Harry J; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Tosteson, Anna N A

    2016-11-15

    Biennial screening is generally recommended for average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years, but tailored screening may provide greater benefits. To estimate outcomes for various screening intervals after age 50 years based on breast density and risk for breast cancer. Collaborative simulation modeling using national incidence, breast density, and screening performance data. United States. Women aged 50 years or older with various combinations of breast density and relative risk (RR) of 1.0, 1.3, 2.0, or 4.0. Annual, biennial, or triennial digital mammography screening from ages 50 to 74 years (vs. no screening) and ages 65 to 74 years (vs. biennial digital mammography from ages 50 to 64 years). Lifetime breast cancer deaths, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive mammograms, benign biopsy results, overdiagnosis, cost-effectiveness, and ratio of false-positive results to breast cancer deaths averted. Screening benefits and overdiagnosis increase with breast density and RR. False-positive mammograms and benign results on biopsy decrease with increasing risk. Among women with fatty breasts or scattered fibroglandular density and an RR of 1.0 or 1.3, breast cancer deaths averted were similar for triennial versus biennial screening for both age groups (50 to 74 years, median of 3.4 to 5.1 vs. 4.1 to 6.5 deaths averted; 65 to 74 years, median of 1.5 to 2.1 vs. 1.8 to 2.6 deaths averted). Breast cancer deaths averted increased with annual versus biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years at all levels of breast density and an RR of 4.0, and those aged 65 to 74 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts and an RR of 4.0. However, harms were almost 2-fold higher. Triennial screening for the average-risk subgroup and annual screening for the highest-risk subgroup cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained. Models did not consider women younger than 50 years, those with an RR less than 1, or other imaging methods. Average-risk women

  4. Computer Modeling of Hydrology, Weathering, and Isotopic Fractionation in Andrews Creek, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado for Water Years 1992 through 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. M. T.; Parkhurst, D. L.; Mast, A.; Clow, D. W.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) was used to simulate hydrology, weathering, and isotopic fractionation in the 1.7 square kilometer Andrews Creek alpine watershed. WEBMOD includes hydrologic modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model, and TOPMODEL. PHREEQC, a geochemical reaction model, is coupled with the hydrologic model to simulate the geochemical evolution of waters as they evaporate, mix, and react within the landscape. Major solute concentrations and δ18O were modeled over the period 1992-2012. Variations of chloride and inorganic nitrogen respond almost entirely to variations in atmospheric deposition and preferential elution of snowpack. Both evaporation and melting result in isotopic enrichment of heavy isotopes in the residual snowpack throughout the summer. Magnesium and potassium, derived mostly from weathering with some atmospheric inputs, vary seasonally with uptake during the growing season and release during the fall and winter. The weathering of granitic minerals—oligoclase, biotite, chlorite, pyrite, calcite, and formation of secondary minerals—kaolinite, goethite, gibbsite, and smectite-illite—were selected as primary reactions based on mole-balance modeling of basin outflows. The rates of these reactions were quantified by calibrating WEBMOD to match observed concentrations and loads. Exported annual loads of most weathering products are highly correlated with discharge, whereas silica loads are less correlated with discharge, suggesting a source that is more active during dry years and less active during wet years. Potential sources include net dissolution of kaolinite and smectite-illite or mineralization of colloids with high silica content. WEBMOD is a valuable tool for simulating water quality variations in response to climate change, acid mine drainage, acid rain, biological transformations, and other

  5. Simulated climate change during the last 1,000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Timothy J.; Briffa, Keith R. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Raper, Sarah C.B. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Manchester Metropolitan University, Dalton Research Institute, Manchester (United Kingdom)

    2006-08-15

    An intercomparison of eight climate simulations, each driven with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcings for the last millennium, indicates that the so-called ''Erik'' simulation of the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model exhibits atypical behaviour. The ECHO-G simulation has a much stronger cooling trend from 1000 to 1700 and a higher rate of warming since 1800 than the other simulations, with the result that the overall amplitude of millennial-scale temperature variations in the ECHO-G simulation is much greater than in the other models. The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas-Induced Climate Change) simple climate model is used to investigate possible causes of this atypical behaviour. It is shown that disequilibrium in the initial conditions probably contributes spuriously to the cooling trend in the early centuries of the simulation, and that the omission of tropospheric sulphate aerosol forcing is the likely explanation for the anomalously large recent warming. The simple climate model results are used to adjust the ECHO-G Erik simulation to mitigate these effects, which brings the simulation into better agreement with the other seven models considered here and greatly reduces the overall range of temperature variations during the last millennium simulated by ECHO-G. Smaller inter-model differences remain which can probably be explained by a combination of the particular forcing histories and model sensitivities of each experiment. These have not been investigated here, though we have diagnosed the effective climate sensitivity of ECHO-G to be 2.39{+-}0.11 K for a doubling of CO{sub 2}. (orig.)

  6. Estimation of sexual behavior in the 18-to-24-years-old Iranian youth based on a crosswise model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakilian, Katayon; Mousavi, Seyed Abbas; Keramat, Afsaneh

    2014-01-13

    In many countries, negative social attitude towards sensitive issues such as sexual behavior has resulted in false and invalid data concerning this issue.This is an analytical cross-sectional study, in which a total number of 1500 single students from universities of Shahroud City were sampled using a multi stage technique. The students were assured that their information disclosed for the researcher will be treated as private and confidential. The results were analyzed using crosswise model, Crosswise Regression, T-test and Chi-square tests. It seems that the prevalence of sexual behavior among Iranian youth is 41% (CI = 36-53). Findings showed that estimation sexual relationship in Iranian single youth is high. Thus, devising training models according to the Islamic-Iranian culture is necessary in order to prevent risky sexual behavior.

  7. Two-year concurrent observation of isoprene at 20 sites over China: comparison with MEGAN-REAM model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Yang, W.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Lyu, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, G.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Isoprene, the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon emitted from plants, directly and indirectly affects atmospheric photochemistry and radiative forcing, yet narrowing its emission uncertainties is a continuous challenge. Comparison of observed and modelled isoprene on large spatiotemporal scales would help recognize factors that control isoprene variability, systematic field observation data are however quite lacking. Here we collected ambient air samples with 1 L silonite-treated stainless steel canisters simultaneously at 20 sites over China on every Wednesday at approximately 14:00 pm Beijing time from 2012 to 2014, and analyzed isoprene mixing ratios by preconcentrator-GC-MSD/FID. Observed isoprene mixing ratios were also compared with that simulated by coupling MEGAN 2.0 (Guenther et al., 2006) with a 3-D Regional chEmical trAnsport Model (REAM) (Zhang et al., 2017). Similar seasonal variations between observation and model simulation were obtained for most of sampling sites, but overall the average isoprene mixing ratios during growing months (May to October) was 0.37 ± 0.08 ppbv from model simulation, about 32% lower than that of 0.54 ± 0.20 ppbv based on ground-based observation, and this discrepancy was particularly significant in north China during wintertime. Further investigation demonstrated that emission of biogenic isoprene in northwest China might be underestimated and non-biogenic emission, such burning biomass/biofuel, might contribute to the elevated levels of isoprene during winter time. The observation-based empirical formulas for changing isoprene emission with solar radiation and temperature were also derived for different regions of China.

  8. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  9. Reduction of CO2 emission by INCAM model in Malaysia biomass power plants during the year 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Nor Aishah Saidina; Talebian-Kiakalaieh, Amin

    2018-03-01

    As the world's second largest palm oil producer and exporter, Malaysia could capitalize on its oil palm biomass waste for power generation. The emission factors from this renewable energy source are far lower than that of fossil fuels. This study applies an integrated carbon accounting and mitigation (INCAM) model to calculate the amount of CO 2 emissions from two biomass thermal power plants. The CO 2 emissions released from biomass plants utilizing empty fruit bunch (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME), as alternative fuels for powering steam and gas turbines, were determined using the INCAM model. Each section emitting CO 2 in the power plant, known as the carbon accounting center (CAC), was measured for its carbon profile (CP) and carbon index (CI). The carbon performance indicator (CPI) included electricity, fuel and water consumption, solid waste and waste-water generation. The carbon emission index (CEI) and carbon emission profile (CEP), based on the total monthly carbon production, were determined across the CPI. Various innovative strategies resulted in a 20%-90% reduction of CO 2 emissions. The implementation of reduction strategies significantly reduced the CO 2 emission levels. Based on the model, utilization of EFB and POME in the facilities could significantly reduce the CO 2 emissions and increase the potential for waste to energy initiatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. In Vitro Assessment of Spray Deposition Patterns in a Pediatric (12 Year-Old) Nasal Cavity Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawant, Namita; Donovan, Maureen D

    2018-03-26

    Nasal sprays available for the treatment of cold and allergy symptoms currently use identical formulations and devices for adults as well as for children. Due to the obvious differences between the nasal airway dimensions of a child and those of an adult, the performance of nasal sprays in children was evaluated. Deposition patterns of nasal sprays administered to children were tested using a nasal cast based on MRI images obtained from a 12 year old child's nasal cavity. Test formulations emitting a range of spray patterns were investigated by actuating the device into the pediatric nasal cast under controlled conditions. The results showed that the nasal sprays impacted in the anterior region of the 12 year old child's nasal cavity, and only limited spray entered the turbinate region - the effect site for most topical drugs and the primary absorptive region for systemically absorbed drugs. Differences in deposition patterns following the administration of nasal sprays to adults and children may lead to differences in efficacy between these populations. Greater anterior deposition in children may result in decreased effectiveness, greater anterior dosage form loss, and the increased potential for patient non-compliance.

  11. Simulated root dynamics of a 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree with and without ozone exposure using the TREGRO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retzlaff, W. A.; Weinstein, D. A.; Laurence, J. A.; Gollands, B.

    1996-01-01

    Because of difficulties in directly assessing root responses of mature forest trees exposed to atmospheric pollutants, we have used the model TREGRO to analyze the effects of a 3- and a 10-year exposure to ozone (O(3)) on root dynamics of a simulated 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree. We used existing phenological, allometric, and growth data to parameterize TREGRO to produce a simulated 160-year-old tree. Simulations were based on literature values for sugar maple fine root production and senescence and the photosynthetic responses of sugar maple seedlings exposed to O(3) in open-top chambers. In the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3), 2 x ambient atmospheric O(3) concentrations reduced net carbon (C) gain of the 160-year-old tree. This reduction occurred in the C storage pools (total nonstructural carbohydrate, TNC), with most of the reduction occurring in coarse (woody) roots. Total fine root production and senescence were unaffected by the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3). However, extending the simulated O(3) exposure period to 10 years depleted the TNC pools of the coarse roots and reduced total fine root production. Similar reductions in TNC pools have been observed in forest-grown sugar maple trees exhibiting symptoms of stress. We conclude that modeling can aid in evaluating the belowground response of mature forest trees to atmospheric pollution stress and could indicate the potential for gradual deterioration of tree health under conditions of long-term stress, a situation similar to that underlying the decline of sugar maple trees.

  12. Development and External Validation of Prognostic Model for 2-Year Survival of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Yu Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Meersschout, Sabine; Van Beek, Karen; Lievens, Yolande; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; De Neve, Wilfried; Rao, Bharat Ph.D.; Weide, Hiska van der; Lambin, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. Conclusion: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process.

  13. An EGS4-ready tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso for calculating organ doses from CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caon, M.; School of Physics and Electronic Systems Engineering, University of South Australia, The Levels Campus, Mawson Lakes, South Australia, 5095; Pattison, J.

    1999-01-01

    Fifty-four consecutive CT scans have been used to construct a tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso suitable for the determination of organ doses from CT. The model, known as ADELAIDE, is in the form of an input file compatible with user codes based on XYZDOS.MOR from the readily available EGS4 Monte Carlo radiation transport code. ADELAIDE's dimensions are close to the Australian averages for her age so the model is representative of a 14-year-old girl. The realistic anatomy in the model differs considerably from that in Cristy's 15-year-old mathematical computational model by having realistically shaped organs that are appropriately located within a real external contour. Average absorbed dose to organs from simulated CT examinations of the chest and abdomen have been calculated for ADELAIDE using EGS4 within a geometry specific to the General Electric Hi-Speed Advantage CT scanner and using an x-ray spectrum calculated using data from the scanner's x-ray tube. The simulations include the scanner's beam shaping filter and patient table. It is suggested that the resulting values have fewer possible sources of uncertainty than organ doses derived from dose coefficients calculated for a MIRD style model with mathematical anatomy and a spectrum that may not match that of the scanner. The organ doses were normalized using the scanner's CTDI measured free-in-air and an EGS4 simulation of the CTDI measurement. Effective dose to the torso from 26-slice chest and 24-slice abdomen examinations (at 120 kV, 200 mAs, 7 mm slices) is 4.6±0.1mSv and 4.3±0.1mSv respectively. (author)

  14. Poverty as a Predictor of 4-Year-Olds’ Executive Function: New Perspectives on Models of Differential Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raver, C. Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Willoughby, Michael

    2017-01-01

    In a predominantly low-income, population-based longitudinal sample of 1,259 children followed from birth, results suggest that chronic exposure to poverty and the strains of financial hardship were each uniquely predictive of young children’s performance on measures of executive functioning. Results suggest that temperament-based vulnerability serves as a statistical moderator of the link between poverty-related risk and children’s executive functioning. Implications for models of ecology and biology in shaping the development of children’s self-regulation are discussed. PMID:22563675

  15. [Epidemiology of homicides in Cali, Colombia, 1993-1998: six years of a population-based model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha-Eastman, Alberto; Espitia, Victoria E; Espinosa, Rafael; Guerrero, Rodrigo

    2002-10-01

    To demonstrate the usefulness of an effective and timely information model, underscore the seriousness of the problem of homicides, and point out the need to apply this type of model as well as comprehensive prevention projects, such as Desarrollo, Seguridad y Paz (DESESPAZ). From 1993 to 1998, 11 457 homicides were registered in Cali, Colombia, through an epidemiological surveillance model established under DESESPAZ by the mayor's office in Cali. Beginning in January 1993, a work group organized by DESESPAZ reviewed and standardized the variables that different institutions gathered about the victims, their assailants, and the facts surrounding each case, and issued a weekly summary bulletin for the mayor and other local authorities. Between 1983 and 1994, the homicide rate increased from 23 to 124 per 100 000 inhabitants. Subsequently, rates went down in 1995, 1996, and 1997 to 112, 102, and 86,1 per 100 000, respectively, and again rose slightly in 1998 to 88 per 100 000. Even though people of all ages, including children under 5, have been victims of violence, the most affected group is that of men between the ages of 20 and 34. The ratio of men to women has varied from 14.3:1 to 9.2:1. In terms of numbers, percentages, and rates, low-income groups are the most seriously affected, although the highest-income groups have had rates as high as 160 per 100 000. A firearm was used in over 80% of homicides, and the crime was most often committed at night and on a weekend. A suspect was identified in only a few cases (8% to 21%). The bivariate analysis revealed a positive association with alcohol consumption by the victim, as well as with the use of firearms by the assailant (OR: 3.1; 95% CI: 2.6 to 3.6). Cases that occurred during a fight between individuals or during group fighting showed an association with the use of a sharp weapon and with alcohol consumption by the victim (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.6). A map shows the homicide distribution by neighborhood, and

  16. Theoretical Risk and Prevention Model for Secondary Health Conditions and Mortality After SCI: 15 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, James S.; Saunders, Lee L.; DiPiro, Nicole D.; Reed, Karla S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: To successfully prevent secondary health conditions (SHCs) and promote longevity after spinal cord injury (SCI), we must first understand the risk factors precipitating their occurrence and develop strategies to address these risk factors. Conceptual models may aid in identifying the nature of SHCs and guide research, clinical practice, and the development of prevention strategies. Objective: Our purpose is to review and refine an existing theoretical risk and prevention model (TRPM) as a means of classifying risk and protective factors for SHCs and mortality after SCI and for identifying points of intervention. Methods: We describe conceptual work within the field of SCI research and SHCs, including a description of the TRPM, a review of research using the TRPM, and conceptual enhancements to the TRPM based on previous research. Conclusions: The enhanced TRPM directs research to the timing and chronicity of the SHCs and their relationship with overall health and physiologic decline. Future research should identify differences in the nature of SHCs, the extent to which they relate to risk and protective factors, and the degree to which they may be prevented with appropriate research-based strategies. PMID:23459002

  17. Linking growth to environmental histories in central Baltic young-of-the-year sprat, Sprattus sprattus : an approach based on otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, H.; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Voss, R.

    2006-01-01

    Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back-calculat......Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back......-calculated days of first feeding (DFF), was narrow compared to the extended spawning season of sprat in the Baltic Sea (mean +/- SD = 22 June +/- 14.1 days) and indicated that only individuals born in summer survived until October 2002. Within the group of survivors, individuals born later in the season exhibited...

  18. PREFACE: The First Fifteen Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary (9--11 October 2003)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, Laszlo; Dove, Martin T.

    2005-02-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the second workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on hills overlooking Budapest in October 2003. Around forty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980’s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community. It is particularly suitable for studies of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, although it has also been used for a number of disordered crystalline systems. There is currently a great interest in the properties of disordered materials and this has produced a resurgence in methods for investigating their structures, with an increased number of high-quality instruments at central facilities for neutron and x-ray scattering from disordered materials. Methods such as RMC are currently in great demand for analysing the resulting total scattering and XAS data and the RMC methodology is actively being developed by a number of groups worldwide. Within this context, the RMC workshop was particularly timely, providing a forum for those workers in the field to take stock of past achievements and to look forward to future developments. It is our hope that the collection of papers within this special issue will also communicate this to the wider scientific community, by providing a balance between papers that have more of an introductory review flavour and those that concentrate on current state of the art research opportunities using the RMC method. The order of the papers within this special issue reflects this balance. The first two papers are introductory reviews of the RMC method in general and as applied specifically to crystalline systems, respectively

  19. Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

    2014-02-01

    To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

  20. Chemical effects in 11-year solar cycle simulations with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with online chemistry (FUB-CMAM-CHEM)

    OpenAIRE

    U. Langematz; J. Grenfell; K. Matthes; P. Mieth; M. Kunze; B. Steil; C. Brühl;  

    2005-01-01

    The impact of 11-year solar cycle variations on stratospheric ozone (O3) is studied with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry (FUB-CMAM-CHEM). To consider the effect of variations in charged particle precipitation we included an idealized NO x source in the upper mesosphere representing relativistic electron precipitation (REP). Our results suggest that the NO x source by particles and its transport from the mesosphere to the stratosphe...

  1. A synthesis of ten years' tests on scale models of LMFBR steam generators at the CGVS facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, J.P.; Quinet, J.L.

    1982-01-01

    Electricite de France has built a high power sodium heated steam generator (SG) facility (CGVS), capable of reproducing all possible operating conditions, to study the behaviour of scale-models of industrial apparatuses. The main findings of the experiments were as follows: - heat exchange surfaces remained perfectly leak proof; - hydrogen detection in the sodium and argon constitute additional systems for monitoring the impermeability to leaks of a SG with a free sodium surface; - extrapolation of the findings to the SUPER PHENIX SG shows that water leaking at a rate of 100 mg/s would induce in ten minutes a 50% rise of the signal produced by the hydrogen monitoring device in the sodium; - acoustic method can detect leaks of the order of one g/s in a 45 MW SG sited in an industrial environment

  2. Analysis of impulse oscillometric measures of lung function and respiratory system model parameters in small airway-impaired and healthy children over a 2-year period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nava Pat

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Is Impulse Oscillometry System (IOS a valuable tool to measure respiratory system function in Children? Asthma (A is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease in children. Therefore, early and accurate assessment of respiratory function is of tremendous clinical interest in diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of respiratory conditions in this subpopulation. IOS has been successfully used to measure lung function in children with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity to small airway impairments (SAI and asthma. IOS measures of airway function and equivalent electrical circuit models of the human respiratory system have been developed to quantify the severity of these conditions. Previously, we have evaluated several known respiratory models based on the Mead's model and more parsimonious versions based on fitting IOS data known as extended RIC (eRIC and augmented RIC (aRIC models have emerged, which offer advantages over earlier models. Methods IOS data from twenty-six children were collected and compared during pre-bronchodilation (pre-B and post- bronchodilation (post-B conditions over a period of 2 years. Results and Discussion Are the IOS and model parameters capable of differentiating between healthy children and children with respiratory system distress? Children were classified into two main categories: Healthy (H and Small Airway-Impaired (SAI. The IOS measures and respiratory model parameters analyzed differed consistently between H and SAI children. SAI children showed smaller trend of "growth" and larger trend of bronchodilator responses than H children. The two model parameters: peripheral compliance (Cp and peripheral resistance (Rp tracked IOS indices of small airway function well. Cp was a more sensitive index than Rp. Both eRIC and aRIC Cps and the IOS Reactance Area, AX, (also known as the "Goldman Triangle" showed good correlations. Conclusions What are the most useful IOS and model parameters? In

  3. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  4. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment.

  5. Mental Health Changes and Its Predictors in Adolescents using the Path Analytic Model: A 7-Year Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This 7-year observational study examines the hours of TV-watching, phone conversation with friends, using the internet, and physical activity as predictors of mental health among adolescents in south of Iran.At the baseline (in 2005, the participants were 2584 high school students in the 9th to 11th grade. At the baseline, 30% of the available participants (n = 775 were selected in the follow-up (2012 using convenience sampling method. This study used the path analysis to examine the predictors of mental health and to obtain direct, indirect and total effects of the independent variables.At the baseline (2005, female gender, internet use, maternal education, physical activity and father's education were associated with mental health (p<0.05. Baseline mental health, internet use and physical activity predicted mental health of the participants in the follow up (p<0.05.The findings of the study revealed that better mental health in later life is associated with better mental health at baseline, male gender, higher physical activity and phone communication with friends, and less use of the internet and TV.

  6. Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history using hydrological model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Wu

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The 1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458 points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI, which can be used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis. We have developed a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought events. As a result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978, 2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, which indicates that the SMAPI is capable of identifying the onset of a drought event, its progression, as well as its termination. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts in China's nine drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to 30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions (Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North from 1951–2009. However, the decadal variability of droughts has been weak in the rest of the five regions (South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet. Xinjiang has even been showing steadily wetter since the 1950s. Two regional dry centres are discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first centre is located in the area partially covered by the North

  7. A selective review of the first 20 years of instrumental variables models in health-services research and medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawley, John

    2015-01-01

    The method of instrumental variables (IV) is useful for estimating causal effects. Intuitively, it exploits exogenous variation in the treatment, sometimes called natural experiments or instruments. This study reviews the literature in health-services research and medical research that applies the method of instrumental variables, documents trends in its use, and offers examples of various types of instruments. A literature search of the PubMed and EconLit research databases for English-language journal articles published after 1990 yielded a total of 522 original research articles. Citations counts for each article were derived from the Web of Science. A selective review was conducted, with articles prioritized based on number of citations, validity and power of the instrument, and type of instrument. The average annual number of papers in health services research and medical research that apply the method of instrumental variables rose from 1.2 in 1991-1995 to 41.8 in 2006-2010. Commonly-used instruments (natural experiments) in health and medicine are relative distance to a medical care provider offering the treatment and the medical care provider's historic tendency to administer the treatment. Less common but still noteworthy instruments include randomization of treatment for reasons other than research, randomized encouragement to undertake the treatment, day of week of admission as an instrument for waiting time for surgery, and genes as an instrument for whether the respondent has a heritable condition. The use of the method of IV has increased dramatically in the past 20 years, and a wide range of instruments have been used. Applications of the method of IV have in several cases upended conventional wisdom that was based on correlations and led to important insights about health and healthcare. Future research should pursue new applications of existing instruments and search for new instruments that are powerful and valid.

  8. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-01-01

    Xtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI...... and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean...... absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body weight, standing height and sitting height have considerable effects on human internal dosimetry. Radiation dose calculations...

  9. Modeling the recurrent failure to thrive in less than two-year children: recurrent events survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saki Malehi, Amal; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Kambiz; Kholdi, Nahid

    2014-01-01

    This study aimes to evaluate the failure to thrive (FTT) recurrent event over time. This longitudinal study was conducted during February 2007 to July 2009. The primary outcome was growth failure. The analysis was done using 1283 children who had experienced FTT several times, based on recurrent events analysis. Fifty-nine percent of the children had experienced the FTT at least one time and 5.3% of them had experienced it up to four times. The Prentice-Williams-Peterson (PWP) model revealed significant relationship between diarrhea (HR=1.26), respiratory infections (HR=1.25), urinary tract infections (HR=1.51), discontinuation of breast-feeding (HR=1.96), teething (HR=1.18), initiation age of complementary feeding (HR=1.11) and hazard rate of the first FTT event. Recurrence nature of the FTT is a main problem, which taking it into account increases the accuracy in analysis of FTT event process and can lead to identify different risk factors for each FTT recurrences.

  10. MODELING THE VARIATIONS OF DOSE RATE MEASURED BY RAD DURING THE FIRST MSL MARTIAN YEAR: 2012–2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Jingnan; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; Heber, Bernd; Köhler, Jan; Appel, Jan K.; Böhm, Eckart; Böttcher, Stephan; Burmeister, Sönke; Lohf, Henning; Martin, Cesar [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel (Germany); Zeitlin, Cary [Southwest Research Institute, Earth, Oceans and Space Department, Durham, NH (United States); Rafkin, Scot; Hassler, Donald M.; Ehresmann, Bent [Southwest Research Institute, Space Science and Engineering Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Posner, Arik [NASA Headquarters, Science Mission Directorate, Washington, DC (United States); Brinza, David E. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Kahanpää, H. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland); Reitz, Günther, E-mail: guo@physik.uni-kiel.de [Aerospace Medicine, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Köln (Germany)

    2015-09-01

    The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), on board Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) rover Curiosity, measures the energy spectra of both energetic charged and neutral particles along with the radiation dose rate at the surface of Mars. With these first-ever measurements on the Martian surface, RAD observed several effects influencing the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) induced surface radiation dose concurrently: (a) short-term diurnal variations of the Martian atmospheric pressure caused by daily thermal tides, (b) long-term seasonal pressure changes in the Martian atmosphere, and (c) the modulation of the primary GCR flux by the heliospheric magnetic field, which correlates with long-term solar activity and the rotation of the Sun. The RAD surface dose measurements, along with the surface pressure data and the solar modulation factor, are analyzed and fitted to empirical models that quantitatively demonstrate how the long-term influences ((b) and (c)) are related to the measured dose rates. Correspondingly, we can estimate dose rate and dose equivalents under different solar modulations and different atmospheric conditions, thus allowing empirical predictions of the Martian surface radiation environment.

  11. General and specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder factors of children 4 to 6 years of age: An exploratory structural equation modeling approach to assessing symptom multidimensionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Víctor B; Ponce, Fernando P; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Benito; Núñez, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    We tested first-order factor and bifactor models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to adequately summarize the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, (DSM-IV-TR) symptoms observed in a Spanish sample of preschoolers and kindergarteners. Six ESEM and CFA models were estimated based on teacher evaluations of the behavior of 638 children 4 to 6 years of age. An ESEM bifactor model with a central dimension plus 3 specific factors (inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity) showed the best fit and interpretability. Strict invariance between the sexes was observed. The bifactor model provided a solution to previously encountered inconsistencies in the factorial models of ADHD in young children. However, the low reliability of the specific factors casts doubt on the utility of the subscales for ADHD measurement. More research is necessary to clarify the nature of G and S factors of ADHD. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

  12. Modelling survival and mortality risk to 15 years of age for a national cohort of children with serious congenital heart defects diagnosed in infancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel L Knowles

    Full Text Available Congenital heart defects (CHDs are a significant cause of death in infancy. Although contemporary management ensures that 80% of affected children reach adulthood, post-infant mortality and factors associated with death during childhood are not well-characterised. Using data from a UK-wide multicentre birth cohort of children with serious CHDs, we observed survival and investigated independent predictors of mortality up to age 15 years.Data were extracted retrospectively from hospital records and death certificates of 3,897 children (57% boys in a prospectively identified cohort, born 1992-1995 with CHDs requiring intervention or resulting in death before age one year. A discrete-time survival model accounted for time-varying predictors; hazards ratios were estimated for mortality. Incomplete data were addressed through multilevel multiple imputation.By age 15 years, 932 children had died; 144 died without any procedure. Survival to one year was 79.8% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 78.5, 81.1% and to 15 years was 71.7% (63.9, 73.4%, with variation by cardiac diagnosis. Importantly, 20% of cohort deaths occurred after age one year. Models using imputed data (including all children from birth demonstrated higher mortality risk as independently associated with cardiac diagnosis, female sex, preterm birth, having additional cardiac defects or non-cardiac malformations. In models excluding children who had no procedure, additional predictors of higher mortality were younger age at first procedure, lower weight or height, longer cardiopulmonary bypass or circulatory arrest duration, and peri-procedural complications; non-cardiac malformations were no longer significant.We confirm the high mortality risk associated with CHDs in the first year of life and demonstrate an important persisting risk of death throughout childhood. Late mortality may be underestimated by procedure-based audit focusing on shorter-term surgical outcomes. National monitoring

  13. Modelling survival and mortality risk to 15 years of age for a national cohort of children with serious congenital heart defects diagnosed in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Rachel L; Bull, Catherine; Wren, Christopher; Wade, Angela; Goldstein, Harvey; Dezateux, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are a significant cause of death in infancy. Although contemporary management ensures that 80% of affected children reach adulthood, post-infant mortality and factors associated with death during childhood are not well-characterised. Using data from a UK-wide multicentre birth cohort of children with serious CHDs, we observed survival and investigated independent predictors of mortality up to age 15 years. Data were extracted retrospectively from hospital records and death certificates of 3,897 children (57% boys) in a prospectively identified cohort, born 1992-1995 with CHDs requiring intervention or resulting in death before age one year. A discrete-time survival model accounted for time-varying predictors; hazards ratios were estimated for mortality. Incomplete data were addressed through multilevel multiple imputation. By age 15 years, 932 children had died; 144 died without any procedure. Survival to one year was 79.8% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 78.5, 81.1%) and to 15 years was 71.7% (63.9, 73.4%), with variation by cardiac diagnosis. Importantly, 20% of cohort deaths occurred after age one year. Models using imputed data (including all children from birth) demonstrated higher mortality risk as independently associated with cardiac diagnosis, female sex, preterm birth, having additional cardiac defects or non-cardiac malformations. In models excluding children who had no procedure, additional predictors of higher mortality were younger age at first procedure, lower weight or height, longer cardiopulmonary bypass or circulatory arrest duration, and peri-procedural complications; non-cardiac malformations were no longer significant. We confirm the high mortality risk associated with CHDs in the first year of life and demonstrate an important persisting risk of death throughout childhood. Late mortality may be underestimated by procedure-based audit focusing on shorter-term surgical outcomes. National monitoring systems should

  14. Five-Year-Olds’ Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206

  15. Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.

  16. Using Dynamic Transmission Modeling to Determine Vaccination Coverage Rate Based on 5-Year Economic Burden of Infectious Disease: An Example of Pneumococcal Vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yu-Wen; Wu, Hsin; Chang, Chee-Jen

    2015-05-01

    Vaccination can reduce the incidence and mortality of an infectious disease and thus increase the years of life and productivity for the entire society. But when determining the vaccination coverage rate, its economic burden is usually not taken into account. This article aimed to use a dynamic transmission modeling (DTM), which is based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model and is a system of differential equations, to find the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the economic burden of an infectious disease. Vaccination for pneumococcal diseases was used as an example to demonstrate the main purpose. 23-Valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have shown their cost-effectiveness in elderly and children, respectively. Scenarios analysis of PPV23 to elderly aged 65+ years and of PCV13 to children aged 0 to 4 years was applied to assess the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the 5-year economic burden. Model parameters were derived from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, government data, and published literature. Various vaccination coverage rates, the vaccine efficacy, and all epidemiologic parameters were substituted into DTM, and all differential equations were solved in R Statistical Software. If the coverage rate of PPV23 for the elderly and of PCV13 for the children both reach 50%, the economic burden due to pneumococcal disease will be acceptable. This article provided an alternative perspective from the economic burden of diseases to obtain a vaccination coverage rate using the DTM. This will provide valuable information for vaccination policy decision makers. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collin F Payne

    Full Text Available Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited.Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64% of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5 with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46% of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8 with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well

  18. Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Collin F; Mkandawire, James; Kohler, Hans-Peter

    2013-01-01

    Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited. Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge) microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64%) of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5) with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46%) of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8) with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well-being. Individuals in this

  19. One-Year Outcomes of Total Meniscus Reconstruction Using a Novel Fiber-Reinforced Scaffold in an Ovine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jay M; Merriam, Aaron R; Culp, Brian M; Gatt, Charles J; Dunn, Michael G

    2016-04-01

    Meniscus injuries and resulting meniscectomies lead to joint deterioration, causing pain, discomfort, and instability. Tissue-engineered devices to replace the meniscus have not shown consistent success with regard to function, mechanical integrity, or protection of cartilage. To evaluate a novel resorbable polymer fiber-reinforced meniscus reconstruction scaffold in an ovine model for 52 weeks and assess its integrity, tensile and compressive mechanics, cell phenotypes, matrix organization and content, and protection of the articular cartilage surfaces. Controlled laboratory study. Eight skeletally mature ewes were implanted with the fiber-reinforced scaffold after total meniscectomy, and 2 additional animals had untreated total meniscectomies. Animals were sacrificed at 52 weeks, and the explants and articular surfaces were analyzed macroscopically. Explants were characterized by ultimate tensile testing, confined compression creep testing, and biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical analyses. Cartilage damage was characterized using the Mankin score on histologic slides from both the femur and tibia. One sheep was removed from the study because of a torn extensor tendon; the remaining 7 explants remained fully intact and incorporated into the bone tunnels. All explants exhibited functional tensile loads, tensile stiffnesses, and compressive moduli. Fibrocartilagenous repair with both types 1 and 2 collagen were observed, with areas of matrix organization and biochemical content similar to native tissue. Narrowing in the body region was observed in 5 of 7 explants. Mankin scores showed less cartilage damage in the explant group (femoral condyle: 3.43 ± 0.79, tibial plateau: 3.50 ± 1.63) than in the meniscectomy group (femoral condyle: 8.50 ± 3.54, tibial plateau: 6.75 ± 2.47) and were comparable with Mankin scores at the previously reported 16- and 32-week time points. A resorbable fiber-reinforced meniscus scaffold supports formation of functional

  20. The Year Without a Ski Season: An Analysis of the Winter of 2015 for Three Ski Resorts in Western Canada Using Historical and Simulation Model Forecasted Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Goode, J. D.; Pedersen, S.

    2015-12-01

    The winter of 2015 will go down as "the year without a ski season" for many ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada and the USA. During this winter season, a large area of the eastern North Pacific Ocean had extremely high sea surface temperatures. These high sea surface temperatures influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, in alpine environments precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow instead fell as rain. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winter of 2015 in greater detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Mount Washington, Cypress Mountain and Hemlock Valley. For these resorts, historical (1901 to 2013) and IPCC AR5 climate model forecasted climate data (RCP8.5 for 2025, 2055, and 2085) was generated for the variable winter degree days climate database ClimateBC. A value for winter degree days climate data at nearby meteorological stations for comparative analysis. For all three resorts, the winter of 2015 proved to be warmer than any individual year in the period 1901 to 2013. Interpolations involving the multi-model ensemble forecast means suggest that the climate associated with winter of 2015 will become the average normal for these resorts in only 35 to 45 years under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

  1. [An example of self-evaluation of a sense of achievement by students in 6-year pharmacy school with the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shingaki, Tomoteru; Koyanagi, Jyunichi; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Hirata, Takahiro; Ohta, Atsutane; Akimoto, Masayuki; Shirahata, Akira; Mitsumoto, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    In March 2012, the first students, finishing the newly introduced 6-year-course of pharmaceutical education, have graduated and gone out into the world. At this point, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) is going to revise the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education to be more suited for educating students to achieve their goal of becoming the clinical pharmacist standard defined by the revised School Education Act. Here we report the self-evaluation study based on the survey using questionnaire about a sense of achievement with Visual Analog Scales, regarding the fundamental quality as a pharmacist standard proposed by the Professional Activities Committee in the MEXT. The sample size of survey was about 600 of students studying in the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Josai International University (JIU) and the survey was carried out during the period of March-April in 2012. The study suggested that the majority of graduates were satisfied with the new education system and marked as a well-balanced quality to be a pharmacist standard, after completing the 6-year pharmaceutical education based on "the model core-curriculum". It would be worthwhile to perform this kind of survey continuously to monitor the student's self-evaluation of a sense of achievement to verify the effectiveness of 6-year-course pharmaceutical education based on the newly establishing core curriculum in Japan.

  2. Petroleum - as far as available. Analysis and critical model calculation up to the year 2200. Erdoel - soweit verfuegbar. Analyse und kritische Modellrechnung bis zum Jahr 2200

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stahmer, A M

    1979-01-01

    An outline is given on the most important oil producing countries and on the petroleum reserves available there as they developed from 1960 to 1978. For the last few years, the figures at hand show a distinct decline of new discoveries i.e. of proved reserves, compared with consumption. Prospective development factors are critically examined, and a model of potential petroleum supply is developed covering the period up to the year 2200 and requiring the adjustment of production and consumption. Until 1986, the model shows a plateau of international oil production (and of consumption) amounting to 3 billion tons per year on an average, and subsequently a constant decline of output. The international average consumption being kept at a relatively high level is to give the world economy the opportunity to develop alternative energy sources. From this detailed statement follows automatically the demand to increase exploratory activities and to lead an optimal consumption policy. In a separate section deposits of heavy oil sands and oil shales and respective production technologies are dealt with as well as their potential contribution to meet energy needs.

  3. Development and validation of a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model for simulating submarining in motor-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jingwen; Klinich, Kathleen D; Reed, Matthew P; Kokkolaras, Michael; Rupp, Jonathan D

    2012-06-01

    In motor-vehicle crashes, young school-aged children restrained by vehicle seat belt systems often suffer from abdominal injuries due to submarining. However, the current anthropomorphic test device, so-called "crash dummy", is not adequate for proper simulation of submarining. In this study, a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model capable of simulating and predicting submarining was developed using MADYMO (TNO Automotive Safety Solutions). The model incorporated improved pelvis and abdomen geometry and properties previously tested in a modified physical dummy. The model was calibrated and validated against four sled tests under two test conditions with and without submarining using a multi-objective optimization method. A sensitivity analysis using this validated child dummy model showed that dummy knee excursion, torso rotation angle, and the difference between head and knee excursions were good predictors for submarining status. It was also shown that restraint system design variables, such as lap belt angle, D-ring height, and seat coefficient of friction (COF), may have opposite effects on head and abdomen injury risks; therefore child dummies and dummy models capable of simulating submarining are crucial for future restraint system design optimization for young school-aged children. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Anggreini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.

  5. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  6. Development of a child head analytical dynamic model considering cranial nonuniform thickness and curvature - Applying to children aged 0-1 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhigang; Ji, Cheng; Wang, Lishu

    2018-07-01

    Although analytical models have been used to quickly predict head response under impact condition, the existing models generally took the head as regular shell with uniform thickness which cannot account for the actual head geometry with varied cranial thickness and curvature at different locations. The objective of this study is to develop and validate an analytical model incorporating actual cranial thickness and curvature for child aged 0-1YO and investigate their effects on child head dynamic responses at different head locations. To develop the new analytical model, the child head was simplified into an irregular fluid-filled shell with non-uniform thickness and the cranial thickness and curvature at different locations were automatically obtained from CT scans using a procedure developed in this study. The implicit equation of maximum impact force was derived as a function of elastic modulus, thickness and radius of curvature of cranium. The proposed analytical model are compared with cadaver test data of children aged 0-1 years old and it is shown to be accurate in predicting head injury metrics. According to this model, obvious difference in injury metrics were observed among subjects with the same age, but different cranial thickness and curvature; and the injury metrics at forehead location are significant higher than those at other locations due to large thickness it owns. The proposed model shows good biofidelity and can be used in quickly predicting the dynamics response at any location of head for child younger than 1 YO. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Exploring Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer: development of a prognostic model predicting 5-year survival after surgical resection†.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrera, Francesco; Errico, Luca; Evangelista, Andrea; Filosso, Pier Luigi; Ruffini, Enrico; Lisi, Elena; Bora, Giulia; Asteggiano, Elena; Olivetti, Stefania; Lausi, Paolo; Ardissone, Francesco; Oliaro, Alberto

    2015-06-01

    Despite impressive results in diagnosis and treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), more than 30% of patients with Stage I NSCLC die within 5 years after surgical treatment. Identification of prognostic factors to select patients with a poor prognosis and development of tailored treatment strategies are then advisable. The aim of our study was to design a model able to define prognosis in patients with Stage I NSCLC, submitted to surgery with curative intent. A retrospective analysis of two surgical registries was performed. Predictors of survival were investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (accounting for the within-centre correlation). Candidate predictors were: age, gender, smoking habit, morbidity, previous malignancy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, clinical N stage, maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)), forced expiratory volume in 1 s, carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO), extent of surgical resection, systematic lymphadenectomy, vascular invasion, pathological T stage, histology and histological grading. The final model included predictors with P model demonstrated that mortality was significantly associated with age, male sex, presence of cardiac comorbidities, DLCO (%), SUV(max), systematic nodal dissection, presence of microscopic vascular invasion, pTNM stage and histological grading. The final model showed a fair discrimination ability (C-statistic = 0.69): the calibration of the model indicated a good agreement between observed and predicted survival. We designed an effective prognostic model based on clinical, pathological and surgical covariates. Our preliminary results need to be refined and validated in a larger patient population, in order to provide an easy-to-use prognostic tool for Stage I NSCLC patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  8. Lead exposure in young children over a 5-year period from urban environments using alternative exposure measures with the US EPA IEUBK model - A trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulson, Brian; Taylor, Alan; Stifelman, Marc

    2018-02-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model has been widely used to predict blood lead (PbB) levels in children especially around industrial sites. Exposure variables have strongly focussed on the major contribution of lead (Pb) in soil and interior dust to total intake and, in many studies, site-specific data for air, water, diet and measured PbB were not available. We have applied the IEUBK model to a comprehensive data set, including measured PbB, for 108 children monitored over a 5-year period in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. To use this data set, we have substituted available data (with or without modification) for standard inputs as needed. For example, as an alternative measure for soil Pb concentration (μg/g), we have substituted exterior dust sweepings Pb concentration (μg/g). As alternative measures for interior dust Pb concentration (μg/g) we have used 1) 30-day cumulative petri dish deposition data (PDD) (as µg Pb/m 2 /30days), or 2) hand wipe data (as μg Pb/hand). For comparison, simulations were also undertaken with estimates of dust Pb concentration derived from a prior regression of dust Pb concentration (μg/g) on dust Pb loading (μg/ft 2 ) as concentration is the unit specified for the Model. Simulations for each subject using observed data aggregated over the 5-year interval of the study, the most usual application of the IEUBK model, showed using Wilcoxon tests that there was a significant difference between the observed values and the values predicted by the Model containing soil with hand wipes (p < 0.001), and soil and PDD (p = 0.026) but not those for the other two sets of predictors, based on sweepings and PDD or sweepings and wipes. Overall, simulations of the Model using alternative exposure measures of petri dish dust (and possibly hand wipes) instead of vacuum cleaner dust and dust sweepings instead of soil provide predicted PbB which are generally consistent with each

  9. The influence of naturally-occurring organic acids on model estimates of lakewater acidification using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). Summary of research conducted during year 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Eilers, J.M. [E and S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States); Cosby, B.J. [Virginia Univ., Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Driscoll, C.T. [Syracuse Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Hemond, H.F. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Charles, D.F. [Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, PA (United States). Patrick Center for Environmental Research; Norton, S.A. [Maine Univ., Orono, ME (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences

    1993-03-05

    A project for the US Department of Energy, entitled ``Incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and Testing of the Revised Model UsingIndependent Data Sources`` was initiated by E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. in March, 1992. Major components of the project include: improving the MAGIC model by incorporating a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, and testing the revised model using data from paleolimnological hindcasts of preindustrial chemistry for 33 Adirondack Mountain lakes, and the results of whole-catchment artificial acidification projects in Maine and Norway. The ongoing research in this project involves development of an organic acid representation to be incorporated into the MAGIC modeland testing of the improved model using three independent data sources. The research during Year 1 has included conducting two workshops to agree on an approach for the organic acid modeling, developing the organic subroutine and incorporating it into MAGIC (Task 1), conducing MAGIC hindcasts for Adirondack lakes and comparing the results with paleolimnological reconstructions (Task 2), and conducting site visits to the manipulation project sites in Maine and Norway. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the work that has been conducted on this project during Year 1. Tasks 1 and 2 have now been completed.

  10. Impact of Study Skills and Parent Education on First-Year GPA Among College Students With and Without ADHD: A Moderated Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormley, Matthew J; Pinho, Trevor; Pollack, Brittany; Puzino, Kristina; Franklin, Melanie K; Busch, Chelsea; DuPaul, George J; Weyandt, Lisa L; Anastopoulos, Arthur D

    2018-02-01

    To test if the relationship between ADHD and academic achievement is mediated by service utilization and/or study skills, and if these mediation effects are moderated by parental education level. A bootstrapping method within structural equation modeling was used with data from 355 first year college students meeting strict criteria for ADHD or clearly without ADHD to test the mediation and moderation effects. Study skills, but not service utilization, significantly mediated the relationship between ADHD status and GPA; however, this relationship was not significant among students with at least one parent holding a master's degree or higher. Among first year college students study skills may be a more salient predictor of educational outcomes relative to ADHD status. Additional research into support services for college students with ADHD is needed, however, results suggest interventions targeting study skills may hold particular promise for these students.

  11. Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

  12. The IPM Wheat Model--results of a three-year study in North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verreet, J A; Heger, M; Oerke, E; Dehne, H W; Finger, I; Busse, C; Klink, H

    2003-01-01

    Under the primary utilisation of phytosanitary production factors such as selection of variety, crop rotation and N fertilisation according to plant requirements, the IPM Wheat Model comprises the elements diagnosis (qualitative = type of pathogen, quantitative = disease severity), scientifically grounded treatment thresholds which, as critical values in pathogen development, can be applied to define the optimum time of fungicide application, and pathogen-specific effective fungicides and application amounts. This leads to the location and year-specific optimised control of the pathogen and of the associated yield performance. After several years of development in Bavaria (from 1985 on) and Schleswig-Holstein (1993-1999), the model was tested as part of a project involving the Universities of Bonn and Kiel and the plant protection services of the German states of Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein in a three-year study (1999-2001) in interregional locations (usually nine per state) with the winter wheat variety Ritmo (interregional indicator variety) and a further variety of regional importance in different variations (untreated control, three to four times growth stage-oriented variants for the determination of the absolute damage potential, IPM-variant). In exact records (approx. 12 dates per vegetation period), the disease epidemics were recorded weekly. With the genetically uniform indicator variety Ritmo, the results documented substantially differing year- and location-specific disease and yield patterns. Interregionally, a broad wheat pathogen spectrum (Puccinia striiformis, P. recondita, Septoria tritici, Stagonospora (syn. Septoria) nodorum, Blumeria (syn. Erysiphe) graminis, Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides, Drechslera tritici-repentis) in differing composition, disease severity and damage effect was demonstrated. The heterogeneity of the infection and damage patterns was increased in the case of the second variety, in

  13. Predictive models and spatial variations of vital capacity in healthy people from 6 to 84 years old in China based on geographical factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jinwei; Ge, Miao; Wang, Congxia; Jiang, Naigui; Zhang, Mingxin; Yun, Pujun

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to provide a scientific basic for a unified standard of the reference value of vital capacity (VC) of healthy subjects from 6 and 84 years old in China. The normal reference value of VC was correlated to seven geographical factors, including altitude (X1), annual duration of sunshine (X2), annual mean air temperature (X3), annual mean relative humidity (X4), annual precipitation amount (X5), annual air temperature range (X6) and annual mean wind speed (X7). Predictive models were established by five different linear and nonlinear methods. The best models were selected by t-test. The geographical distribution map of VC in different age groups can be interpolated by Kriging's method using ArcGIS software. It was found that the correlation of VC and geographical factors in China was quite significant, especially for both males and females aged from 6 to 45. The best models were built for different age groups. The geographical distribution map shows the spatial variations of VC in China precisely. The VC of healthy subjects can be simulated by the best model or acquired from the geographical distribution map provided the geographical factors for that city or county of China are known.

  14. Use of a 3D Skull Model to Improve Accuracy in Cranioplasty for Autologous Flap Resorption in a 3-Year-Old Child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maduri, Rodolfo; Viaroli, Edoardo; Levivier, Marc; Daniel, Roy T; Messerer, Mahmoud

    2017-01-01

    Cranioplasty is considered a simple reconstructive procedure, usually performed in a single stage. In some clinical conditions, such as in children with multifocal flap osteolysis, it could represent a surgical challenge. In these patients, the partially resorbed autologous flap should be removed and replaced with a precustomed prosthesis which should perfectly match the expected bone defect. We describe the technique used for a navigated cranioplasty in a 3-year-old child with multifocal autologous flap osteolysis. We decided to perform a cranioplasty using a custom-made hydroxyapatite porous ceramic flap. The prosthesis was produced with an epoxy resin 3D skull model of the patient, which included a removable flap corresponding to the planned cranioplasty. Preoperatively, a CT scan of the 3D skull model was performed without the removable flap. The CT scan images of the 3D skull model were merged with the preoperative 3D CT scan of the patient and navigated during the cranioplasty to define with precision the cranioplasty margins. After removal of the autologous resorbed flap, the hydroxyapatite prosthesis matched perfectly with the skull defect. The anatomical result was excellent. Thus, the implementation of cranioplasty with image merge navigation of a 3D skull model may improve cranioplasty accuracy, allowing precise anatomic reconstruction in complex skull defect cases. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  15. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahaim Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  16. Transitions in cognitive test scores over 5 and 10 years in elderly people: Evidence for a model of age-related deficit accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rockwood Kenneth

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background On average, health worsens with age, but many people have periods of improvement. A stochastic model provides an excellent description of how such changes occur. Given that cognition also changes with age, we wondered whether the same model might also describe the accumulation of errors in cognitive test scores in community-dwelling older adults. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 8954 older people (aged 65+ at baseline from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging were followed for 10 years. Cognitive status was defined by the number of errors on the 100-point Modified Min-Mental State Examination. The error count was chosen to parallel the deficit count in the general model of aging, which is based on deficit accumulation. As with the deficit count, a Markov chain transition model was employed, with 4 parameters. Results On average, the chance of making errors increased linearly with the number of errors present at each time interval. Changes in cognitive states were described with high accuracy (R2 = 0.96 by a modified Poisson distribution, using four parameters: the background chance of accumulating additional errors, the chance of incurring more or fewer errors, given the existing number, and the corresponding background and incremental chances of dying. Conclusion The change in the number of errors in a cognitive test corresponded to a general model that also summarizes age-related changes in deficits. The model accounts for both improvement and deterioration and appears to represent a clinically relevant means of quantifying how various aspects of health status change with age.

  17. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: evidence from 555 years of program experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

    2005-01-27

    Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  18. Supporting Third Year Medical Students' Skill Acquisition and Self-Efficacy with Coping Models and Process Feedback during Laparoscopic Knot Tying Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Michael S; Kauffman, Douglas F

    2017-01-01

    Background: During the third year general surgery clerkship, medical students are required to develop laparoscopic knot-tying skills. Knot-tying skills studies often rely on objective variables (e.g., time, materials used, number of iterations) that lend themselves to correlational analysis of pre- and post-intervention skill level. This study differs by examining how instructional interventions-role modeling and feedback-affect medical students' skill acquisition and self-efficacy during a laparoscopic surgical simulation training session. Methods: Seventy-eight surgical clerkship students were assigned randomly to one cell of a 2X2 factorial design. Participants observed one of two types of role modeling (expert vs. coping) and received either process-oriented or outcome-oriented feedback during a 30-min laparoscopic training session. Participants also completed several surveys that assessed their interest in surgery and their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot tying. Results: Coping model groups tended to perform better on the knot tying task, though this was less the case in the presence of outcome feedback. Expert model groups slightly outperformed the coping model group on the peg transfer task, but in the presence of outcome feedback they reported the lowest satisfaction with their performance and the lowest self-efficacy for the knot tying task. The coping model combined with process feedback had a positive influence on students' efficiency in learning the task, on their satisfaction with their performance, and on their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot typing. Conclusions: Results are discussed relative to self-regulated learning theory.

  19. Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of Conservative or Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment Guidelines in Adults Aged 35-74 Years: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moise, Nathalie; Huang, Chen; Rodgers, Anthony; Kohli-Lynch, Ciaran N; Tzong, Keane Y; Coxson, Pamela G; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Goldman, Lee; Moran, Andrew E

    2016-07-01

    The population health effect and cost-effectiveness of implementing intensive blood pressure goals in high-cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk adults have not been described. Using the CVD Policy Model, CVD events, treatment costs, quality-adjusted life years, and drug and monitoring costs were simulated over 2016 to 2026 for hypertensive patients aged 35 to 74 years. We projected the effectiveness and costs of hypertension treatment according to the 2003 Joint National Committee (JNC)-7 or 2014 JNC8 guidelines, and then for adults aged ≥50 years, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of adding an intensive goal of systolic blood pressure cost-effectiveness ratios cost-effective. JNC7 strategies treat more patients and are more costly to implement compared with JNC8 strategies. Adding intensive systolic blood pressure goals for high-risk patients prevents an estimated 43 000 and 35 000 annual CVD events incremental to JNC8 and JNC7, respectively. Intensive strategies save costs in men and are cost-effective in women compared with JNC8 alone. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained, JNC8+intensive had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in women (82%) and JNC7+intensive the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in men (100%). Assuming higher drug and monitoring costs, adding intensive goals for high-risk patients remained consistently cost-effective in men, but not always in women. Among patients aged 35 to 74 years, adding intensive blood pressure goals for high-risk groups to current national hypertension treatment guidelines prevents additional CVD deaths while saving costs provided that medication costs are controlled. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  20. Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

    2015-12-01

    A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The

  1. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  2. Modeling the Severity of Drinking Consequences in First-Year College Women: An Item Response Theory Analysis of the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Amy M.; Hagman, Brett T.; Graff, Fiona S.; Noel, Nora E.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The present study examined the latent continuum of alcohol-related negative consequences among first-year college women using methods from item response theory and classical test theory. Method: Participants (N = 315) were college women in their freshman year who reported consuming any alcohol in the past 90 days and who completed assessments of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related negative consequences using the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. Results: Item response theory analyses showed poor model fit for five items identified in the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. Two-parameter item response theory logistic models were applied to the remaining 18 items to examine estimates of item difficulty (i.e., severity) and discrimination parameters. The item difficulty parameters ranged from 0.591 to 2.031, and the discrimination parameters ranged from 0.321 to 2.371. Classical test theory analyses indicated that the omission of the five misfit items did not significantly alter the psychometric properties of the construct. Conclusions: Findings suggest that those consequences that had greater severity and discrimination parameters may be used as screening items to identify female problem drinkers at risk for an alcohol use disorder. PMID:22051212

  3. The Effects of Model-Based Educational Intervention on Self-medication Behavior in Mothers with Children less than 2- year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostam Heydartabar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self-medication by people is one of the major issues in the world that can be lead to numerous medical and economic problems, this especially issue in children under 2 years who are at the age of growth and development have great importance. The aim of this study was investigate the effects of model-based educational interventions on self-medication behavior in mothers with children under 2 years of age who referred to the health centers of Firoozkooh city (Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was quasi - experimental interventional study. The study population consisted of mothers with children under 2 years old referring to health centers of the Firoozkooh city, Iran. The data collection tool was researcher made questionnaire which its validity and reliability was assessed than was used. The required information was collected before and after the educational intervention. Then 4 months after the educational intervention, evaluation was done and data analysis was using SPSS-20. Results: Significant difference was not found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, self-efficacy with performance (self-medication before the educational intervention (P>0.05. But after the educational intervention, statistically significant difference was found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, and self-efficacy with performance (P

  4. Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the {proportional_to}1,500-year cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dima, Mihai [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); University of Bucharest, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Physics, P.O. Box 11440, Magurele, Bucharest (Romania); Lohmann, Gerrit [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)

    2009-02-15

    Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a {proportional_to}1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct {proportional_to}1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes. (orig.)

  5. Urology Residents' Experience and Attitude Toward Surgical Simulation: Presenting our 4-Year Experience With a Multi-institutional, Multi-modality Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Alexander K; Sherer, Benjamin A; Yura, Emily; Kielb, Stephanie; Kocjancic, Ervin; Eggener, Scott; Turk, Thomas; Park, Sangtae; Psutka, Sarah; Abern, Michael; Latchamsetty, Kalyan C; Coogan, Christopher L

    2017-11-01

    To evaluate the Urological resident's attitude and experience with surgical simulation in residency education using a multi-institutional, multi-modality model. Residents from 6 area urology training programs rotated through simulation stations in 4 consecutive sessions from 2014 to 2017. Workshops included GreenLight photovaporization of the prostate, ureteroscopic stone extraction, laparoscopic peg transfer, 3-dimensional laparoscopy rope pass, transobturator sling placement, intravesical injection, high definition video system trainer, vasectomy, and Urolift. Faculty members provided teaching assistance, objective scoring, and verbal feedback. Participants completed a nonvalidated questionnaire evaluating utility of the workshop and soliciting suggestions for improvement. Sixty-three of 75 participants (84%) (postgraduate years 1-6) completed the exit questionnaire. Median rating of exercise usefulness on a scale of 1-10 ranged from 7.5 to 9. On a scale of 0-10, cumulative median scores of the course remained high over 4 years: time limit per station (9; interquartile range [IQR] 2), faculty instruction (9, IQR 2), ease of use (9, IQR 2), face validity (8, IQR 3), and overall course (9, IQR 2). On multivariate analysis, there was no difference in rating of domains between postgraduate years. Sixty-seven percent (42/63) believe that simulation training should be a requirement of Urology residency. Ninety-seven percent (63/65) viewed the laboratory as beneficial to their education. This workshop model is a valuable training experience for residents. Most participants believe that surgical simulation is beneficial and should be a requirement for Urology residency. High ratings of usefulness for each exercise demonstrated excellent face validity provided by the course. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Improved nurse job satisfaction and job retention with the transition from a "mandatory consultation" model to a "semiclosed" surgical intensive care unit: a 1-year prospective evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haut, Elliott R; Sicoutris, Corinna P; Meredith, Denise M; Sonnad, Seema S; Reilly, Patrick M; Schwab, C William; Hanson, C William; Gracias, Vicente H

    2006-02-01

    The change from a "mandatory consultation" to a "semiclosed" surgical intensive care unit (SICU) model will impact nurses considerably. We hypothesize that nurse job satisfaction, job turnover rates, and hospital costs for temporary agency nurses will improve and these improvements will be more dramatic in SICU sections with greater involvement of a dedicated surgical critical care service (SCCS). Prospective longitudinal survey. Tertiary-care university hospital. SICU staff nurses. Change from mandatory consultation to semiclosed SICU. We surveyed SICU nurses during the year-long transition to a semiclosed SICU service (five time points, 3-month intervals). The first four surveys included ten questions on nurse job satisfaction. The final survey included two additional questions. All questions were on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree). Nurse job turnover rates and money spent on agency nurses were compared over time; 503 of a possible 914 surveys were completed (55% overall return rate). Nurse job satisfaction scores significantly improved over time for all questions (p job turnover rate dropped from 25% to 16% (p = .15). The scores for both year-end statements ("I am more satisfied with my job now than 1 year ago" and "The SCCS management of all orders has improved my job satisfaction") were significantly higher in sections with greater SCCS involvement (p = .0070 and p job satisfaction improved significantly with the transition to a semiclosed SICU. This higher satisfaction was associated with a significant decrease in spending on temporary agency nurses and a trend toward increased staff nurse job retention. SICU sections with greater SCCS involvement had more dramatic improvements. This semiclosed SICU model may help retain SICU nurses in a competitive job market in which experienced nurses are in short supply.

  7. Verification of a prognostic meteorological and air pollution model for year-long predictions in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurley, P.J.; Blockley, A.; Rayner, K.

    2001-01-01

    A prognostic air pollution model (TAPM) has been used to predict meteorology and sulphur dioxide concentration in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia for 1997, with a view to verifying TAPM for use in environmental impact assessments and associated air pollution studies. The regulatory plume model, DISPMOD, developed for the Kwinana region has also been run using both an observationally based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-O) and using a TAPM-based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-T). TAPM predictions of the meteorology for 1997 compare well with the observed values at each of the five monitoring sites. Root mean square error and index of agreement values for temperature and winds indicate that TAPM performs well at predicting the meteorology, compared to the performance of similar models from other studies. The yearly average, 99.9 percentile, maximum and mean of the top 10 ground-level sulphur dioxide concentrations for 1997 were predicted well by all of the model runs, although DISPMOD-O and DISPMOD-T tended to overpredict extreme statistics at sites furthest from the sources. Overall, TAPM performed better than DISPMOD-O, which in turn performed better than DISPMOD-T, for all statistics considered, but we consider that all three sets of results are sufficiently accurate for regulatory applications. The mean of the top ten concentrations is generally considered to be a robust performance statistic for air pollution applications, and we show that compared to the site-averaged observed value of 95μgm -3 , TAPM predicted 94μgm -3 , DISPMOD-O predicted 111μgm -3 and DISPMOD-T predicted 125μgm -3 . The results indicate that the prognostic meteorological and air pollution approach to regulatory modelling used by TAPM, gives comparable or better results than the current regulatory approach used in the Kwinana region (DISPMOD), and also indicates that the approach of using a currently accepted regulatory model with a prognostically

  8. Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

    2014-05-01

    A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

  9. The Effect of Education on Preventive Behaviors of Failure to Thrive in Mothers with Children Aged One to Five Years: Applied Health Belief Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahtab Navabi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: One of the common and important health problems is failure to thrive in childhood. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of education on preventive behaviors of failure to thrive in mothers with children based on health belief model. Materials and Methods: This study is an interventional one in which 100 mothers with children one to five years involved (samples divided into two case and control groups, each of 50 sampling was done by a simple random method. For collecting information, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the health belief model and performance check list were used. Then, case group was trained for one month. 3 months after training, data were gathered and analyzed by Spss20 software. In addition to descriptive statistics, tests such as Chi-square, paired t-test and independent T-test were used. Results: The mean age of case and control was 29.98±5.51 and 25.35±5.30 years old, respectively. The average age of children was 23.31 ± 13.14 and 27.55 ± 14.01months, respectively. Before the intervention, no significant difference was seen between groups. The average score in case group before intervention was as: knowledge(31.87±14.24, perceived susceptibility(64.23±5.86, perceived severity(64.41±9.34, perceived benefits(61.75±6.79, perceived barriers(67.91±8.14, self-efficacy(68.00±7.87, cues to action(44.53±6.82 and action(70.00±9.77. However, after the intervention, significant differences between groups in all variables were obserred. Conclusion: According to the results, education based on health belief model is recommended for promoting preventive behaviors of failure to thrive.

  10. Stochastic modelling of basal temperatures in divide regions of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 1.5 million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Liefferinge, Brice; Pattyn, Frank; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Young, Duncan A.; Roberts, Jason L.

    2017-04-01

    The quest for oldest ice in Antarctica has recently been launched through an EU H2020 project (Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice) and aims at identifying suitable areas for a potential future drilling. Retrieving an ice core of such age is essential to understand the relation between orbital changes and atmospheric composition during the mid-Pliocene transition. However, sites for a potential undisturbed record of 1.5 million-year old ice in Antarctica are difficult to find and require slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be sufficiently thick but cold basal conditions should still prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. Therefore, ice-flow conditions and thermodynamic characteristics are crucial for identifying potential locations of undisturbed ice. Van Liefferinge and Pattyn (2013) identified suitable areas based on a pan-Antarctic simplified thermodynamic ice sheet model and demonstrated that uncertainty in geothermal conditions remain a major unknown. In order to refine these estimates, and provide uncertainties, we employ a full thermo-mechanically coupled higher-order ice sheet model (Pattyn, 2003; Pattyn et al., 2004). Initial conditions for the calculations are based on an inversion of basal slipperiness, based on observed surface topography (Pollard and DeConto, 2012; Pattyn, in prep.). Uncertainties in geothermal conditions are introduced using the convolution of two Gaussian probability density functions: (a) the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet geometry and testing ice thickness variability over the last 2 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) and (b) the surface temperature reconstruction over the same period (Snyder et al., 2016). The standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the whole Antarctic ice sheet are analyzed to observe likely probable melt conditions. Finally, we focus on model results in the

  11. Modeled and measured glacier change and related glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance and water years 2006 and 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance years 2006 and 2007. Mass balances were computed with assistance from a new model that was based on the works of other glacier researchers. The model, which was developed for mass balance practitioners, coupled selected meteorological and glaciological data to systematically estimate daily mass balance at selected glacier sites. The North Cascade Range in the vicinity of South Cascade Glacier accumulated approximately average to above average winter snow packs during 2006 and 2007. Correspondingly, the balance years 2006 and 2007 maximum winter snow mass balances of South Cascade Glacier, 2.61 and 3.41 meters water equivalent, respectively, were approximately equal to or more positive (larger) than the average of such balances since 1959. The 2006 glacier summer balance, -4.20 meters water equivalent, was among the four most negative since 1959. The 2007 glacier summer balance, -3.63 meters water equivalent, was among the 14 most negative since 1959. The glacier continued to lose mass during 2006 and 2007, as it commonly has since 1953, but the loss was much smaller during 2007 than during 2006. The 2006 glacier net balance, -1.59 meters water equivalent, was 1.02 meters water equivalent more negative (smaller) than the average during 1953-2005. The 2007 glacier net balance, -0.22 meters water equivalent, was 0.37 meters water equivalent less negative (larger) than the average during 1953-2006. The 2006 accumulation area ratio was less than 0.10, owing to isolated patches of accumulated snow that endured the 2006 summer season. The 2006 equilibrium line altitude was higher than the glacier. The 2007 accumulation area ratio and equilibrium line altitude were 0.60 and 1,880 meters, respectively. Accompanying the glacier mass losses were retreat of the terminus and reduction of total glacier area. The

  12. Tests of bioaccumulation models for polychlorinated biphenyl compounds: a study of young-of-the-year bluefish in the Hudson River estuary, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Lawrence A; Buckel, Jeffrey A; Conover, David O; Brownawell, Bruce J

    2006-08-01

    A field-based study regarding uptake of polychlorinated biphenyl compounds (PCBs) by young-of-the-year (YOY) bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) was initiated to test a steady-state model of bioaccumulation and trophic transfer in a rapidly growing fish. Determination of prey composition as well as size-dependent growth and specific consumption rates for YOY bluefish from separate field and laboratory studies enabled the input of these species-specific parameters into the model. Furthermore, the time and duration of the exposure of YOY bluefish to dissolved PCBs from a well-characterized system (Hudson River, USA) was well known. Patterns of accumulation of individual PCB congeners differed relative to the accumulation of total PCBs, with the greatest net accumulation occurring for the higher-molecular-weight congeners. Comparison of lipid-normalized bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) with the octanol-water partition coefficients of individual PCB congeners revealed bluefish to be above the BAFs predicted by lipid-based equilibrium partitioning, suggesting that uptake from food is an important source of PCBs in YOY bluefish. Comparison of measured BAFs with values predicted by a steady-state, food-chain model showed good first-order agreement.

  13. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in During a Five-Year Period (2010-2014 by Using AirQ Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Kermani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Air pollution in large cities is one of the main difficulties that have harmful effects on humans and the environment and cause various diseases including cardiovascular disease. So, present study with aim of Estimation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in during a five-year period (2010-2014 by using AirQ Model were performed. Materials and Methods: This Study was a descriptive–analytic at first, hourly data of pollutants were taken from the environmental protection agency Tehran and Air Quality Control Company and validated according to the WHO guidelines. Required statistical parameters calculated for health effect quantifying and finally processed data converted to input and requirements AirQ model data and health effects quantifying were performed using this model. The final results on deaths due to cardiovascular disease were presented in tables and graphs format. Results: Results showed annual average concentration of CO in Tehran in 2010-2014 are 49, 31, 11,12,21,76 mg/ m3 respectively. In addition, the number of cardiovascular deaths in 2011-2015 is 52,37,29,31,42 respectively Conclusion: According to the results, CO as well as other pollutants can adversely affect human health. Due to high levels of air pollution and its related health consequences, particularly cardiovascular disease, should take appropriate measures to reduce air pollution.

  14. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12-year crop succession: impact of soil hydraulic and vegetation properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J. C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Buis, S.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2015-07-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain terms in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs (Interaction Sol-Biosphere-Atmosphere) simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at the field scale over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamics of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key parameters which drive the simulation of ET, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. A sensitivity analysis is first conducted to quantify the relative contribution of each parameter on ET simulation over 12 years. The impact of the estimation method used to retrieve the soil parameters (pedotransfer function, laboratory and field methods) on ET is then analysed. The benefit of representing the variations in time of the rooting depth and wilting point is evaluated. Finally, the propagation of uncertainties in the soil parameters on ET simulations is quantified through a Monte Carlo analysis and compared with the uncertainties triggered by the mesophyll conductance which is a key above-ground driver of the stomatal conductance. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This results in a high sensitivity of simulated evapotranspiration to uncertainties in the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at saturation, both of which drive the simulation of soil evaporation. Field capacity was proved to be the most

  15. Size distribution, chemical composition and oxidation reactivity of particulate matter from gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine fueled with ethanol-gasoline fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Yueqi; Zhu, Lei; Fang, Junhua; Zhuang, Zhuyue; Guan, Chun; Xia, Chen; Xie, Xiaomin; Huang, Zhen

    2015-01-01

    Ethanol-gasoline blended fuels have been widely applied in markets recently, as ethanol reduces life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and improves anti-knock performance. However, its effects on particulate matter (PM) emissions from gasoline direct injection (GDI) engine still need further investigation. In this study, the effects of ethanol-gasoline blended fuels on particle size distributions, number concentrations, chemical composition and soot oxidation activity of GDI engine were investigated. It was found that ethanol-gasoline blended fuels increased the particle number concentration in low-load operating conditions. In higher load conditions, the ethanol-gasoline was effective for reducing the particle number concentration, indicating that the chemical benefits of ethanol become dominant, which could reduce soot precursors such as large n-alkanes and aromatics in gasoline. The volatile organic mass fraction in ethanol-gasoline particulates matter was higher than that in gasoline particulate matter because ethanol reduced the amount of soot precursors during combustion and thereby reduced the elemental carbon proportions in PM. Ethanol addition also increased the proportion of small particles, which confirmed the effects of ethanol on organic composition. Ethanol-gasoline reduced the concentrations of most PAH species, except those with small aromatic rings, e.g., naphthalene. Soot from ethanol-gasoline has lower activation energy of oxidation than that from gasoline. The results in this study indicate that ethanol-gasoline has positive effects on PM emissions control, as the soot oxidation activity is improved and the particle number concentrations are reduced at moderate and high engine loads. - Highlights: • Ethanol-gasoline reduces elemental carbon in PM. • Ethanol-gasoline increases volatile organic fraction in PM. • Soot generated from ethanol-gasoline has higher oxidation activity.

  16. Technology Demonstration of Qualified Vehicle Modifier (QVM) Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) and Gasoline Fueled Ford F-150 Series Bifuel Prep Vehicles at Ft. Hood, TX

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Alvarez, R

    2000-01-01

    ...) of 1988, the Clean Air Act (CAA) Amendments of 1990, and the Energy Policy Act of 1992. The objectives of the program were to demonstrate the acceptability of alternative-fueled- vehicles in a Department of Defense (DOD) U.S...

  17. Analysis of Transition from HCCI to CI via PPC with Low Octane Gasoline Fuels Using Optical Diagnostics and Soot Particle Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    An, Yanzhao; Vallinayagam, R; Vedharaj, S; Masurier, Jean-Baptiste; Dawood, Alaaeldin; Izadi Najafabadi, Mohammad; Somers, Bart; Johansson, Bengt

    2017-01-01

    In-cylinder visualization, combustion stratification, and engine-out particulate matter (PM) emissions were investigated in an optical engine fueled with Haltermann straight-run naphtha fuel and corresponding surrogate fuel. The combustion mode was transited from homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) to conventional compression ignition (CI) via partially premixed combustion (PPC). Single injection strategy with the change of start of injection (SOI) from early to late injections was employed. The high-speed color camera was used to capture the in-cylinder combustion images. The combustion stratification was analyzed based on the natural luminosity of the combustion images. The regulated emission of unburned hydrocarbon (UHC), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO) were measured to evaluate the combustion efficiency together with the in-cylinder rate of heat release. Soot mass concentration was measured and linked with the combustion stratification and the integrated red channel intensity of the high-speed images for the soot emissions. The nucleation nanoscale particle number and the particle size distribution were sampled to understand the effect of combustion mode switch.

  18. Analysis of Transition from HCCI to CI via PPC with Low Octane Gasoline Fuels Using Optical Diagnostics and Soot Particle Analysis

    KAUST Repository

    An, Yanzhao

    2017-10-10

    In-cylinder visualization, combustion stratification, and engine-out particulate matter (PM) emissions were investigated in an optical engine fueled with Haltermann straight-run naphtha fuel and corresponding surrogate fuel. The combustion mode was transited from homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) to conventional compression ignition (CI) via partially premixed combustion (PPC). Single injection strategy with the change of start of injection (SOI) from early to late injections was employed. The high-speed color camera was used to capture the in-cylinder combustion images. The combustion stratification was analyzed based on the natural luminosity of the combustion images. The regulated emission of unburned hydrocarbon (UHC), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO) were measured to evaluate the combustion efficiency together with the in-cylinder rate of heat release. Soot mass concentration was measured and linked with the combustion stratification and the integrated red channel intensity of the high-speed images for the soot emissions. The nucleation nanoscale particle number and the particle size distribution were sampled to understand the effect of combustion mode switch.

  19. Performance of STICS model to predict rainfed corn evapotranspiration and biomass evaluated for 6 years between 1995 and 2006 using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes and ancillary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattey, Elizabeth; Jégo, Guillaume; Bourgeois, Gaétan

    2010-05-01

    Verifying the performance of process-based crop growth models to predict evapotranspiration and crop biomass is a key component of the adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate variations. STICS, developed by INRA, was part of the models selected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to be implemented for environmental assessment studies on climate variations, because of its built-in ability to assimilate biophysical descriptors such as LAI derived from satellite imagery and its open architecture. The model prediction of shoot biomass was calibrated using destructive biomass measurements over one season, by adjusting six cultivar parameters and three generic plant parameters to define two grain corn cultivars adapted to the 1000-km long Mixedwood Plains ecozone. Its performance was then evaluated using a database of 40 years-sites of corn destructive biomass and yield. In this study we evaluate the temporal response of STICS evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation predictions against estimates using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes. The flux tower was located in an experimental farm south of Ottawa and measurements carried out over corn fields in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2006. Daytime and nighttime fluxes were QC/QA and gap-filled separately. Soil respiration was partitioned to calculate the corn net daily CO2 uptake, which was converted into dry biomass. Out of the six growing seasons, three (1995, 1998, 2002) had water stress periods during corn grain filling. Year 2000 was cool and wet, while 1996 had heat and rainfall distributed evenly over the season and 2006 had a wet spring. STICS can predict evapotranspiration using either crop coefficients, when wind speed and air moisture are not available, or resistance. The first approach provided higher prediction for all the years than the resistance approach and the flux measurements. The dynamic of evapotranspiration prediction of STICS was very good for the growing seasons without

  20. Eight New Luminous z > 6 Quasars Selected via SED Model Fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, S.L.; et al.

    2017-01-17

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the ESO NTT and Gemini South telescopes of eight new 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with z$_{AB}$ < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any star-galaxy morphological criteria from 1533 deg$^{2}$ using SED model fitting to photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), the VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data was fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift dependent Lyman-{\\alpha} forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using on a SED-model based $\\chi^{2}$-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST, Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100% without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being over run by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimating technique that gives comparable accuracy to MgII and CO based redshift estimators. We find two z $\\sim$ 6.2 quasars with HII near zone sizes < 3 proper Mpc which could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages < 10$^6$ - 10$^7$ years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDESJ0224-4711 has J$_{AB}$ = 19.75 is the second most luminous quasar known with z > 6.5.

  1. Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, S. L.; McMahon, R. G.; Martini, P.; Banerji, M.; Auger, M.

    2017-01-01

    Here, we present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the European Southern Observatory New Technology Telescope (NTT) and Gemini South telescopes of eight new, and the rediscovery of two previously known, 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with zAB < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any morphological criteria from 1533 deg2 using spectral energy distribution (SED) model fitting to photometric data from Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data were fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift-dependent Ly α forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low-mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using an SED-model-based χ2-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST and Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100 per cent without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants, the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being overrun by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimator that gives comparable accuracy to Mg ii and CO-based redshift estimators. We find two z ~6.2 quasars with H ii near zone sizes ≤3 proper Mpc that could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages ≲ 10 6 -10 7 years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDES J0224–4711 has JAB = 19.75 and is the second most luminous quasar known with z ≥ 6.5.

  2. Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting Volcanic Ash Plumes over the Past 5 Years and the Impact on Preparedness from the London VAAC Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. S.; Lisk, I.

    2015-12-01

    Hosted and run by the Met Office, the London VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre) is responsible for issuing advisories on the location and likely dispersion of ash clouds originating from volcanoes in the North East Atlantic, primarily from Iceland. These advisories and additional guidance products are used by the civil aviation community to make decisions on airspace flight management. London VAAC has specialist forecasters who use a combination of volcano source data, satellite-based, ground-based and aircraft observations, weather forecast models and dispersion models. Since the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which resulted in the decision by many northern European countries to impose significant restrictions on the use of their airspace, London VAAC has been active in further developing its volcanic ash monitoring, modelling and forecasting capabilities, collaborating with research organisations, industry, other VAACs, Meteorological Services and the Volcano Observatory in Iceland. It has been necessary to advance operational capabilities to address evolving requirements, including for more quantitative assessments of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Here we summarise advances in monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic ash plumes over the past 5 years from the London VAAC perspective, and the realization of science into operations. We also highlight the importance of collaborative activities, such as the 'VAAC Best Practice' Workshop, where information is exchanged between all nine VAACs worldwide on the operational practices in monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash, with the aim of working toward a more harmonized service for decision makers in the aviation community. We conclude on an evaluation of how better we are prepared for the next significant ash-rich Icelandic eruption, and the challenges still remaining.

  3. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim; Hermann, Albert J.; Gibson, Georgina A.; Punt, André E.; Wiese, Francis K.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Ferm, Nissa; Buckley, Troy W.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A.; Ianelli, James N.; Murphy, James; Dalton, Michael; Cheng, Wei; Wang, Muyin; Hedstrom, Kate; Bond, Nicholas A.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Boyd, Charlotte

    2016-12-01

    We combined field data and the output from a climate-to-fish coupled biophysical model to calculate weekly climatologies and 1971-2009 time series of physical and biological drivers for 16 distinct regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. We focus on spatial trends and physical-biological interactions as a framework to compare model output to localized or season-specific observations. Data on pollock (≥8 cm) diet were used to evaluate energy flows and zooplankton dynamics predicted by the model. Model validation shows good agreement to sea-ice cover albeit with a one month delay in ice retreat. Likewise, the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in the model were delayed approximately one month in the south and extend further into summer, but the relative timing between the spring and fall bloom peaks was consistent with observations. Ice-related primary producers may shift the timing of the spring bloom maximum biomass earlier in years when sea ice was still present after mid-March in the southern regions. Including the effects of explicit, dynamic fish predation on zooplankton in the model shifts the seasonal spring peak and distribution of zooplankton later in the year relative to simulations with implicit predation dependent only on zooplankton biomass and temperature; the former capturing the dynamic demand on zooplankton prey by fish. Pollock diets based on stomach samples collected in late fall and winter from 1982-2013 show overwintering euphausiids and small pollock as key prey items in the outer and southern Bering Sea shelf; a characteristic not currently present in the model. The model captured two large-scale gradients, supported by field data, characterizing the overall dynamics: 1) inshore to off-shelf physical and biological differences with a gradient in inter-annual variability from higher frequency inshore to lower frequency offshore; and 2) latitudinal gradients in the timing of events. The combined effects of length of day

  5. The Teach for America RockCorps, Year 1: Turning Authentic Research Experiences in Geophysics for STEM Teachers into Modeling Instruction™ in High School Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, D. R., Jr.; Neubauer, H.; Barber, T. J.; Griffith, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    National reform efforts such as the Next Generation Science Standards, Modeling Instruction™, and Project Lead the Way (PLTW) seek to more closely align K-12 students' STEM learning experiences with the practices of scientific and engineering inquiry. These reform efforts aim to lead students toward deeper understandings constructed through authentic scientific and engineering inquiry in classrooms, particularly via model building and testing, more closely mirroring the professional practice of scientists and engineers, whereas traditional instructional approaches have typically been lecture-driven. In this vein, we describe the approach taken in the first year of the Teach for America (TFA) RockCorps, a five-year, NSF-sponsored project designed to provide authentic research experiences for secondary teachers and foster the development of Geophysics-themed teaching materials through cooperative lesson plan development and purchase of scientific equipment. Initially, two teachers were selected from the local Dallas-Fort Worth Region of TFA to participate in original research studying the failure of rocks under impulsive loads using a Split-Hopkinson-Pressure Bar (SHPB). For the teachers, this work provides a context from which to derive Geophysics-themed lesson plans for their courses, Physics/Pre-AP and Principles of Engineering (POE), offered at two large public high schools in Dallas ISD. The Physics course will incorporate principles of seismic wave propagation to allow students to develop a model of wave behavior, including velocity, refraction, and resonance, and apply the model to predict propagation properties of a variety of waves through multiple media. For the PLTW POE course, tension and compression testing of a variety of rock samples will be incorporated into materials properties and testing units. Also, a project will give a group of seniors in the PLTW Engineering Design and Development course at this certified NAF Academy of Engineering the

  6. Modeling soil organic carbon stock after 10 years of cover crops in Mediterranean vineyards: improving ANN prediction by digital terrain analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Papa, Giuseppe; Novara, Agata; Santoro, Antonino; Gristina, Luciano

    2014-05-01

    Estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock after Agro Environment Measures adoption are strategically for national and regional scale. Uncertainty in estimates also represents a very important parameter in terms of evaluation of the exact costs and agro environment payments to farmers. In this study we modeled the variation of SOC stock after 10-year cover crop adoption in a vine growing area of South-Eastern Sicily. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in SOC stocks. A total 100 paired sites (i.e. two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (Ap soil horizons, circa 0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot to obtain a mean value of organic carbon concentration for each plot. The variation of soil organic carbon (SOCv) for each plot was calculated by differences between concentrations of the plot subjected to cover crops (SOC10) and the relative plot subjected to traditional agronomic practices (SOC0). The feasibility of using artificial neural networks as a method to predict soil organic carbon stock variation and the contribution of digital terrain analysis to improve the prediction were tested. We randomly subdivided the experimental values of SOC-stock difference in 80 learning samples and 20 test samples for model validation. SOCv was strongly correlated to the SOC0 concentration. Model validation using only SOCv as unique covariate showed a training and test perfection of 0.724 and 0.871 respectively. We hypothesized that terrain-driven hydrological flow patterns, mass-movement and local micro-climatic factors could be responsible processes contributing for SOC redistributions, thus affecting soil carbon stock in time. Terrain attributes were derived by digital terrain analysis from the 10 m DEM of the study area. A total of 37 terrain attributes were calculated and submitted to statistical feature selection. The Chi-square ranking indicated only 4 significant covariates among the terrain attributes (slope height

  7. Model Novaes for analysis of the productivity and efficiency of logistics operators in Brazil: a study of its applicability for the years 2005 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Rodrigues Junqueira

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a proposal to upgrade the production function to evaluate the productivity and efficiency of Brazilians logistics operators, which was developed by Novaes in his study in 2000. The goal was identify if and how the variables used continued to explain the behavior of productivity of these companies. To achieve that goal, tests were performed with data of years for 2005 and 2006, provided by the Revista Tecnologística, and used the same statistical techniques developed in the previous study, the multiple regression. The previous study intended to help the competitive advantage of logistics operators attentive to the problem, through the methodology of analysis of competitors and to customers of this service along the supply chain management, interested in identifying companies with greater efficiency. The results indicate that the model developed by Novaes is not valid for the current reality of these companies. Key-words: productivity function; logistic operators; analysis of competitors and suppliers.

  8. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  9. Three year stability of Five-Factor Model personality traits in relation to changes in symptom levels in patients with schizophrenia or related disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyette, Lindy-Lou; Nederlof, Jan; Meijer, Carin; de Boer, Froukje; de Haan, Lieuwe

    2015-09-30

    Five-Factor Model (FFM) personality traits are related to a wide range of clinical outcome in patients with psychotic disorders. However, it is not sufficiently clear whether psychotic illness, particularly fluctuation in negative symptoms and psychotic relapse, affects personality. The current study examined the 3-year temporal stability of FFM traits in 91 patients with non-affective psychotic disorders with a maximum duration of illness of 10 years and 32 control subjects without a (family member with) a diagnosis of psychotic illness. In patients, change in negative symptoms predicted changes in Neuroticism and (inversely) in Extraversion and Openness. However, when correcting for depressive symptoms, negative symptoms no longer predicted change in any FFM trait. Clinical characteristics, such as psychotic relapse, were also not found to be related to change in FFM traits. Patients showed a slight increase in Conscientiousness levels, the other FFM traits showed mean-level stability. Rank-order stability of the FFM traits was moderate to strong, although weaker for Neuroticism in patients. Our findings indicate that psychotic symptoms exert limited effect on the stability of FFM traits in patients with psychotic disorders. Consistent with general population findings, one should guard against state-trait confusion between Neuroticism/Extraversion and depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Two-year impact of the Spanish smoking law on exposure to secondhand smoke: evidence of the failure of the 'Spanish model'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Maria J; Nebot, Manel; Schiaffino, Anna; Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Fu, Marcela; Ariza, Carles; Muñoz, Gloria; Fernández, Esteve

    2012-07-01

    Studies evaluating the long-term impact of smoking laws on secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure using airborne markers are scarce. This study aimed to assess the long-term impact of the Spanish smoking law on SHS levels, using a specific and objective marker. Follow-up study, measuring vapour-phase nicotine levels before the implementation of the law and 6, 12 and 24 months after the initial assessment. A total of 443 samples were taken at baseline in eight different regions in offices in the public administration, private sector, universities and hospitality venues. Two years after the law was implemented, the nicotine concentration decreased by a minimum of 60% in public administration, university and private sector offices, as well as in venues where smoking was totally banned. However, nicotine levels significantly increased by 40% in hospitality venues allowing smoking. No significant differences were found in hospitality venues with areas for smokers and non-smokers or in pubs and discotheques. Two years after the smoking law came into force, levels of SHS exposure in the workplace were significantly lower than before the law was implemented. Importantly, however, SHS levels were even higher than before the law was implemented in venues still allowing smoking. The data obtained in this study clearly show that the 'Spanish model' is not protecting the health of hospitality workers and that a complete ban is required. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of compliance with smoking laws over time.

  11. Pre-entry Characteristics, Perceived Social Support, Adjustment and Academic Achievement in First-Year Spanish University Students: A Path Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, María Soledad; Tinajero, Carolina; Páramo, María Fernanda

    2017-11-17

    Transition to university is a multifactorial process to which scarce consideration has been given in Spain, despite this being one of the countries with the highest rates of academic failure and attrition within the European Union. The present study proposes an empirical model for predicting Spanish students' academic achievement at university by considering pre-entry characteristics, perceived social support and adaptation to university, in a sample of 300 traditional first-year university students. The findings of the path analysis showed that pre-university achievement and academic and personal-emotional adjustment were direct predictors of academic achievement. Furthermore, gender, parents' education and family support were indirect predictors of academic achievement, mediated by pre-university grades and adjustment to university. The current findings supporting evidence that academic achievement in first-year Spanish students is the cumulative effect of pre-entry characteristics and process variables, key factors that should be taken into account in designing intervention strategies involving families and that establish stronger links between research findings and university policies.

  12. The cost-effectiveness of hospital-based telephone coaching for people with type 2 diabetes: a 10 year modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varney, J E; Liew, D; Weiland, T J; Inder, W J; Jelinek, G A

    2016-09-27

    Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a burdensome condition for individuals to live with and an increasingly costly condition for health services to treat. Cost-effective treatment strategies are required to delay the onset and slow the progression of diabetes related complications. The Diabetes Telephone Coaching Study (DTCS) demonstrated that telephone coaching is an intervention that may improve the risk factor status and diabetes management practices of people with T2DM. Measuring the cost effectiveness of this intervention is important to inform funding decisions that may facilitate the translation of this research into clinical practice. The purpose of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of telephone coaching, compared to usual diabetes care, in participants with poorly controlled T2DM. A cost utility analysis was undertaken using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model to extrapolate outcomes collected at 6 months in the DTCS over a 10 year time horizon. The intervention's impact on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and costs was estimated. Costs were reported from a health system perspective. A 5 % discount rate was applied to all future costs and effects. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to reflect uncertainty surrounding key input parameters. The intervention dominated the control condition in the base-case analysis, contributing to cost savings of $3327 per participant, along with non-significant improvements in QALE (0.2 QALE) and life expectancy (0.3 years). The cost of delivering the telephone coaching intervention continuously, for 10 years, was fully recovered through cost savings and a trend towards net health benefits. Findings of cost savings and net health benefits are rare and should prove attractive to decision makers who will determine whether this intervention is implemented into clinical practice. ACTRN12609000075280.

  13. Growth and Mortality Outcomes for Different Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Criteria in Children Ages 1-5 Years: A Causal Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Davies, Mary-Ann; Malateste, Karen; Renner, Lorna; Sawry, Shobna; N'Gbeche, Sylvie; Technau, Karl-Günter; Eboua, François; Tanser, Frank; Sygnaté-Sy, Haby; Phiri, Sam; Amorissani-Folquet, Madeleine; Cox, Vivian; Koueta, Fla; Chimbete, Cleophas; Lawson-Evi, Annette; Giddy, Janet; Amani-Bosse, Clarisse; Wood, Robin; Egger, Matthias; Leroy, Valeriane

    2016-03-01

    There is limited evidence regarding the optimal timing of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children. We conducted a causal modeling analysis in children ages 1-5 years from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS West/Southern-Africa collaboration to determine growth and mortality differences related to different CD4-based treatment initiation criteria, age groups, and regions. ART-naïve children of ages 12-59 months at enrollment with at least one visit before ART initiation and one follow-up visit were included. We estimated 3-year growth and cumulative mortality from the start of follow-up for different CD4 criteria using g-computation. About one quarter of the 5,826 included children was from West Africa (24.6%).The median (first; third quartile) CD4% at the first visit was 16% (11%; 23%), the median weight-for-age z-scores and height-for-age z-scores were -1.5 (-2.7; -0.6) and -2.5 (-3.5; -1.5), respectively. Estimated cumulative mortality was higher overall, and growth was slower, when initiating ART at lower CD4 thresholds. After 3 years of follow-up, the estimated mortality difference between starting ART routinely irrespective of CD4 count and starting ART if either CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4% <25% was 0.2% (95% CI = -0.2%; 0.3%), and the difference in the mean height-for-age z-scores of those who survived was -0.02 (95% CI = -0.04; 0.01). Younger children ages 1-2 and children in West Africa had worse outcomes. Our results demonstrate that earlier treatment initiation yields overall better growth and mortality outcomes, although we could not show any differences in outcomes between immediate ART and delaying until CD4 count/% falls below 750/25%.

  14. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. The restoration of the endangered Sambucus palmensis after 30 years of conservation actions in the Garajonay National Park: genetic assessment and niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Priscila; Fernández de Castro, Alejandro G; Sosa, Pedro A

    2018-01-01

    The translocation of individuals or the reinforcement of populations are measures in the genetic rescue of endangered species. Although it can be controversial to decide which and how many individuals must be reintroduced, populations can benefit from reinforcements. Sambucus palmensis is a critically endangered endemic to the Canary Islands. During the past 30 years, the Garajonay National Park (La Gomera) has carried out an intensive program of translocations using cuttings, due to the low germination rates of seeds. To assess the effect of the restorations on the population genetics of S. palmensis in La Gomera, we collected 402 samples from all the restored sites and all known natural individuals, which were genotyped with seven microsatellite markers. In addition, we conducted a species distribution modeling approach to assess how restorations fit the ecological niche of the species. Results show that there is a high proportion of clone specimens due to the propagation method, and the natural clonal reproduction of the species. Nonetheless, the observed heterozygosity has increased with the restorations and there still are private alleles and unique genotypes in the natural populations that have not been considered in the restorations. The population of Liria constitutes a very important genetic reservoir for the species. To optimize future reintroductions, we have proposed a list of specimens that are suitable for the extraction of seeds or cuttings in a greenhouse, as well as new suitable areas obtained by the species distribution models.

  16. Concussion Characteristics in High School Football by Helmet Age/Recondition Status, Manufacturer, and Model: 2008-2009 Through 2012-2013 Academic Years in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Christy L; McKenzie, Lara B; Ferketich, Amy K; Andridge, Rebecca; Xiang, Huiyun; Comstock, R Dawn

    2016-06-01

    Football helmets used by high school athletes in the United States should meet the National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment performance standards. Despite differences in interior padding and exterior shells, all football helmets should provide comparable protection against concussions. Yet, debate continues on whether differences in the rates or severity of concussions exist based on helmet age/recondition status, manufacturer, or model. To investigate whether high school football concussion characteristics varied by helmet age/recondition status, manufacturer, and model. Descriptive epidemiological study. High school football concussion and helmet data were collected from academic years 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 as part of the National High School Sports-Related Injury Surveillance Study. The certified athletic trainers of participating schools submitted athlete-exposure (AE) and injury information weekly. Participating schools reported 2900 football concussions during 3,528,790 AEs for an overall rate of 8.2 concussions per 10,000 AEs. Concussion rates significantly increased from 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 overall (P = .006) as well as in competition (P = .027) and practice (P = .023). Characteristics of concussed football players (ie, mean number of symptoms, specific concussion symptoms, symptom resolution time, and time until return to play) were similar among players wearing new helmets when compared with reconditioned helmets. Fewer players wearing an old/not reconditioned helmet had concussion symptoms resolve within 1 day compared with players wearing a new helmet. Despite differences in the manufacturers and models of helmets worn by all high school football players compared with players who sustained a concussion, the mean number of concussion symptoms, specific concussion symptoms, symptom resolution time, and time until return to play were similar for concussions sustained by football players wearing the most common helmet

  17. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoqi; Wang, Shen S. J.; Chen, Chengrong

    2017-12-01

    Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA) to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species-enzyme-C/N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C/N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG), N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP) and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases). The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01-2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99-2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait.), increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22-1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native coniferous tree species like hoop pine and

  18. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C, and nitrogen (N stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species–enzyme–C∕N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C∕N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG, N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases. The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01–2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99–2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait., increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22–1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native

  19. Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, S. L.; McMahon, R. G.; Martini, P.; Banerji, M.; Auger, M.; Hewett, P. C.; Koposov, S. E.; Gibbons, S. L. J.; Gonzalez-Solares, E.; Ostrovski, F.; Tie, S. S.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Burke, D. L.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; da Costa, L. N.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Doel, P.; Evrard, A. E.; Finley, D. A.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gaztanaga, E.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; James, D. J.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Miller, C. J.; Miquel, R.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Tucker, D. L.; Walker, A. R.; Wester, W.

    2017-07-01

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the European Southern Observatory New Technology Telescope (NTT) and Gemini South telescopes of eight new, and the rediscovery of two previously known, 6.0 VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data were fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift-dependent Ly α forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low-mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using an SED-model-based χ2-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST and Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100 per cent without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants, the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being overrun by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimator that gives comparable accuracy to Mg II and CO-based redshift estimators. We find two z ˜ 6.2 quasars with H II near zone sizes ≤3 proper Mpc that could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages ≲ 106-107 years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDES J0224-4711 has JAB = 19.75 and is the second most luminous quasar known with z ≥ 6.5.

  20. Teaching programming and modelling skills to first-year earth & environmental science undergraduates: outcomes and lessons learned from a pilot project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, J. A.; Brewer, C.; O'Brien, G.

    2017-12-01

    Computing and programming are rapidly becoming necessary skills for earth and environmental scientists. Scientists in both academia and industry must be able to manipulate increasingly large datasets, create plots and 3-D visualisations of observations, and interpret outputs from complex numerical models, among other tasks. However, these skills are rarely taught as a compulsory part of undergraduate earth science curricula. In 2016, the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences at the University of Wollongong began a pilot program to integrate introductory programming and modelling skills into the required first-year core curriculum for all undergraduates majoring in earth and environmental science fields. Using Python, a popular teaching language also widely used by professionals, a set of guided exercises were developed. These exercises use interactive Jupyter Notebooks to introduce students to programming fundamentals and simple modelling problems relevant to the earth system, such as carbon cycling and population growth. The exercises are paired with peer review activities to expose students to the multitude of "correct" ways to solve computing problems. In the last weeks of the semester, students work in groups to creatively adapt their new-found skills to selected problems in earth system science. In this presentation, I will report on outcomes from delivering the new curriculum to the first two cohorts of 120-150 students, including details of the implementation and the impacts on both student aptitude and attitudes towards computing. While the first cohort clearly developed competency, survey results suggested a drop in student confidence over the course of the semester. To address this confidence gap for the second cohort, the in-class activities are now being supplemented with low-stakes open-book review quizzes that provide further practice with no time pressure. Research into the effectiveness of these review quizzes is ongoing and preliminary findings