WorldWideScience

Sample records for model year 2017-2025

  1. 76 FR 48758 - 2017-2025 Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards: Supplemental Notice of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-09

    ...-stop, solar roof panels for battery charging on EV, PHEV or HEV with at least 100 watts, active... more recently sought extensive input from automobile manufacturers regarding design elements for the MY... designed specifically for law enforcement purposes, which have the effect of raising their GHG emissions. 8...

  2. Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. This report details compliance for model year 2015, fiscal year 2016.

  3. This year`s model: Geochemical modeling and groundwater quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuchfeld, H.A.; Simmons, S.P.; Jesionek, K.S. [GeoSyntec Consultants, Walnut Creek, CA (United States)]|[GeoSyntec Consultants, Atlanta, GA (United States); Romito, A.A. [Browning-Ferris Industries, Inc., Houston, TX (United States)

    1998-07-01

    It has been determined that landfill gas migration is a source of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in groundwater. This can occur through: direct partitioning of migrating gas constituents into the groundwater; alteration of the physiochemical properties of the groundwater; and by indirect means (such as migration of landfill gas condensate and vadose zone water contaminated by landfill gas). This article examines the use of geochemical modeling as a useful tool for differentiating the effects of municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill gas versus leachate on groundwater quality at MSW landfill sites.

  4. 49 CFR 537.7 - Pre-model year and mid-model year reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... with § 537.9 and based upon the fuel economy values and projected sales figures provided under... accordance with 49 CFR 531.5(c) and 49 CFR 533.5(h) and based upon the projected sales figures provided under... accordance with subpart D of 40 CFR part 600, (2) Body style, (3) Beginning model year 2010, base tire...

  5. Aspects of dual models many years ago

    CERN Document Server

    Corrigan, E

    2008-01-01

    In October 1969, almost forty years ago I started my three years as a graduate student in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, Cambridge. During the previous year, as was customary then, I took Part III of the Mathematics Tripos. This was a thorough grounding in many of the tools then useful in elementary particle theory. However, by today's standards, it was lacking in some respects, especially in the area of quantum field theory - the most notable omission being any mention of Yang-Mills gauge theory.

  6. Geomagnetic Information Model for the Year 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Brkić

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The finalization of the survey of the Basic Geomagnetic Network of the Republic of Croatia (BGNRC and completion of geomagnetic information models for the Institute for Research and Development of Defence Systems of the Ministry of Defence and the State Geodetic Administration (e.g. Brkić M., E. Jungwirth, D. Matika and Ž. Bačić, 2012, Geomagnetic Information and Safety, 3rd Conference of Croatian National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, National Protection and Rescue Directorate, Zagreb was followed in 2012 with validity confirmation of the GI2012 predictive model by geomagnetic observations in quiet conditions. The differences between the measured and modelled declination were found to be within the expected errors of the model. It needs to be pointed out that this was the first successful implementation of night surveying (especially suitable for geomagnetic surveys of airports in the Republic of Croatia.

  7. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  8. Microdata Simulation Modeling After Twenty Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haveman, Robert H.

    1986-01-01

    This article describes the method and the development of microdata simulation modeling over the past two decades. After tracing a brief history of this evaluation method, its problems and prospects are assessed. The effects of this research method on the development of the social sciences are examined. (JAZ)

  9. The Thirring model 40 years later

    CERN Document Server

    Ilieva, N P

    1999-01-01

    Solutions to the Thirring model are constructed in the framework of algebraic QFT. It is shown that for all positive temperatures there are fermionic solutions only if the coupling constant is $\\lambda = \\sqrt{2(2n+1)\\pi}, n\\in many) live in orthogonal spaces, so the whole Hilbert space becomes non-separable and in each of its sectors a different Urgleichung holds. This feature certainly cannot be seen by any power expansion in $\\lambda$. Moreover, if the statistic parameter is tied to the coupling constant it is clear that such an expansion is doomed to failure and will never reveal the true structure of the theory. On the basis of the model in question, it is not possible to decide whether fermions or bosons are more fundamental since dressed fermions can be constructed either from bare fermions or directly from the current algebra.

  10. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Fourth year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    The scope of the report is to present the results of the fourth year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  11. 40 CFR 85.2302 - Definition of model year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Definition of model year. 85.2302 Section 85.2302 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF AIR POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES Determination of Model Year for Motor Vehicles and Engines Used in Motor Vehicles Under...

  12. 40 CFR 600.512-12 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... economy standard or the “required fuel economy level” pursuant to 49 CFR part 533, as applicable. Model year reports for light trucks meeting required fuel economy levels pursuant to 49 CFR 533.5(g) and (h... requirements. (9) For 2011 and later model year reports, the “required fuel economy level” pursuant to 49...

  13. 40 CFR 85.2303 - Duration of model year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Duration of model year. 85.2303 Section 85.2303 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF AIR POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES Determination of Model Year for Motor Vehicles and Engines Used in Motor Vehicles Under Section...

  14. 40 CFR 600.512-86 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Model year report. 600.512-86 Section 600.512-86 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy Regulations for Model Year 1978 Passenger Automobiles and for 1979...

  15. Development of a multi-year climate prediction model | Alexander ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Development of a multi-year climate prediction model. ... The available water resources in Southern Africa are rapidly approaching the limits of economic exploitation. ... that could be attributed to climate change arising from human activities.

  16. 40 CFR 600.512-08 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...” pursuant to 49 CFR part 533, as applicable. Model year reports for light trucks meeting required fuel economy levels pursuant to 49 CFR 533.5(g) and (h) shall include information in sufficient detail to... reports, the “required fuel economy level” pursuant to 49 CFR parts 531 or 533, as applicable. Model...

  17. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  18. The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non-stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.

  19. Luttinger model the first 50 years and some new directions

    CERN Document Server

    Mattis, Daniel C

    2014-01-01

    The Luttinger Model is the only model of many-fermion physics with legitimate claims to be both exactly and completely solvable. In several respects it plays the same role in many-body theory as does the 2D Ising model in statistical physics. Interest in the Luttinger model has increased steadily ever since its introduction half a century ago. The present volume starts with reprints of the seminal papers in which it was originally introduced and solved, and continues with several contributions setting out the landscape of the principal advances of the last fifty years and of prominent new dire

  20. Constraining hybrid inflation models with WMAP three-year results

    CERN Document Server

    Cardoso, A

    2006-01-01

    We reconsider the original model of quadratic hybrid inflation in light of the WMAP three-year results and study the possibility of obtaining a spectral index of primordial density perturbations, $n_s$, smaller than one from this model. The original hybrid inflation model naturally predicts $n_s\\geq1$ in the false vacuum dominated regime but it is also possible to have $n_s<1$ when the quadratic term dominates. We therefore investigate whether there is also an intermediate regime compatible with the latest constraints, where the scalar field value during the last 50 e-folds of inflation is less than the Planck scale.

  1. Challenges in validating model results for first year ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Eastwood, Steinar; Xie, Jiping; Aaboe, Signe; Bertino, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the quality of model results for the distribution of first year ice, a comparison with a product based on observations from satellite-borne instruments has been performed. Such a comparison is not straightforward due to the contrasting algorithms that are used in the model product and the remote sensing product. The implementation of the validation is discussed in light of the differences between this set of products, and validation results are presented. The model product is the daily updated 10-day forecast from the Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in CMEMS. The forecasts are produced with the assimilative ocean prediction system TOPAZ. Presently, observations of sea ice concentration and sea ice drift are introduced in the assimilation step, but data for sea ice thickness and ice age (or roughness) are not included. The model computes the age of the ice by recording and updating the time passed after ice formation as sea ice grows and deteriorates as it is advected inside the model domain. Ice that is younger than 365 days is classified as first year ice. The fraction of first-year ice is recorded as a tracer in each grid cell. The Ocean and Sea Ice Thematic Assembly Centre in CMEMS redistributes a daily product from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF of gridded sea ice conditions which include "ice type", a representation of the separation of regions between those infested by first year ice, and those infested by multi-year ice. The ice type is parameterized based on data for the gradient ratio GR(19,37) from SSMIS observations, and from the ASCAT backscatter parameter. This product also includes information on ambiguity in the processing of the remote sensing data, and the product's confidence level, which have a strong seasonal dependency.

  2. Review of the UPFC Different Models in Recent Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoud Zadehbagheri

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Unified Power Flow Controller (UPFC is one of the most intriguing and, potentially, the most versatile classes of Flexible AC Transmission Systems (FACTS devices. The UPFC is a device which can control simultaneously tree parameters line impedance, voltage, phase angle and dynamic compensation of AC power system. In order to analyse its true effects on power systems, it is important to model its constraints, due to various ratings and operating limits. This paper reviews on the different models of UPFC used in recent years and gives sets of information for each model of the UPFC in AC transmission. Then the different models are compared and features of each model are examined.

  3. Predictive 5-Year Survivorship Model of Cystic Fibrosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liou, Theodore G.; Adler, Frederick R.; FitzSimmons, Stacey C.; Cahill, Barbara C.; Hibbs, Jonathan R.; Marshall, Bruce C.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study was to create a 5-year survivorship model to identify key clinical features of cystic fibrosis. Such a model could help researchers and clinicians to evaluate therapies, improve the design of prospective studies, monitor practice patterns, counsel individual patients, and determine the best candidates for lung transplantation. The authors used information from the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR), which has collected longitudinal data on approximately 90% of cystic fibrosis patients diagnosed in the United States since 1986. They developed multivariate logistic regression models by using data on 5,820 patients randomly selected from 11,630 in the CFFPR in 1993. Models were tested for goodness of fit and were validated for the remaining 5,810 patients for 1993. The validated 5-year survivorship model included age, forced expiratory volume in 1 second as a percentage of predicted normal, gender, weight-for-age z score, pancreatic sufficiency, diabetes mellitus, Staphylococcus aureus infection, Burkerholderia cepacia infection, and annual number of acute pulmonary exacerbations. The model provides insights into the complex nature of cystic fibrosis and supplies a rigorous tool for clinical practice and research. PMID:11207152

  4. Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  5. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  6. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  7. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  8. Modeling diarrhea disease in children less than 5 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kale, Pauline Lorena; Hinde, John Philip; Nobre, Flávio Fonseca

    2004-07-01

    Identification of the temporal pattern of diarrhea disease in children less than 5 years of age in Rio de Janeiro City (1995-1998) to provide support for decisions about prevention and control of the disease. The weekly counts of hospitalizations and deaths due to diarrhea disease were analyzed separately. An initial generalized linear model (GLM) was derived using variables related to weather and month. Displays of fitted generalized additive models (GAM) including a spline smoothed function of time suggested additional predictors that were used to obtain new models. The initial models did not properly account for the observed cyclical pattern of the data. Graphical displays of the GAM model show a nonhomogeneous decline and annual cycles. Stepwise fitting of GLMs with two factors (cycle and season), and a time trend, showed that the full three-way interaction model was required. Plots of the residuals from the death model suggested a mixture of distributions while the residuals from the hospitalization model were approximately normal. The same general pattern for both time series was found by graphical inspection and fitting of appropriate GLMs. This study provides some additional evidence that severe cases of diarrhea disease may be attributed to rotavirus.

  9. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  10. Foothills Model Forest: a ten-year review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simpson, R.

    2002-04-01

    The first ten years of the Foothills Model Forest, established in 1992, is reviewed. The model forest has been established to develop sustainable forest management within the broader concept of sustainable development and integrated resource management. The project focuses on issues such as wildlife habits and habitats; biodiversity monitoring; natural disturbance trends and patterns; and socio-economic studies. In Phase One of the Canadian Model Forest Network the Foothills Model Forest focused primarily on conducting world class research to advance the concept of sustainable forest management. Phase Two was devoted to communicating the results of that research, with a strong emphasis on generating baseline awareness of the concept of sustainable forest management and creating public awareness of the project's mandate in Alberta. Work during the next five years is expected to focus on demonstration and implementation of research results to forest managers and practitioners and others with a stake in the continued sustainability of Alberta's forests. The Sustainable Forest Management project shares a common objective with the Alberta Chamber of Resources' Integrated Landscape Management project; both projects recognise that reducing the industrial footprint is key to sustainable development. The emphasis on demonstration and implementation in the third phase of the Foothills Model Forest is expected to ensure continued sustainability of forests, ecosystems, communities and resources, with full recognition of the fact that the goal of sustainable development can be achieved only by full cooperation and integrated action of all stakeholders.

  11. Workplace violence mitigation: the three-year model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harmon, Justin

    2016-01-01

    In presenting a three-year model for workplace violence mitigation in this article, the author sees it as providing a way to gauge the maturity of the program. This model, he says, functions similarly to a high performing security awareness program where certain themes need to be repeated on a routine basis just so situational awareness does not fall by the wayside. While the program outlined here is not a guaranteed formula for success, it is a framework to work within to ensure you have a roadmap upon which to build success.

  12. Fifteen Years of Research on Business Model Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Foss, Nicolai Juul; Saebi, Tina

    2017-01-01

    Over the last 15 years, business model innovation (BMI) has gained an increasing amount of attention in management research and among practitioners. The emerging BMI literature addresses an important phenomenon but lacks theoretical underpinning, and empirical inquiry is not cumulative. Thus...... research and show how the complexity theory, innovation, and other streams of literature can help overcome many of the gaps in the BMI literature....

  13. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  14. Continuous global geomagnetic field models for the past 3000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korte, Monika; Constable, Catherine

    2003-11-01

    Several global geomagnetic field models exist for recent decades, but due to limited data availability models for several centuries to millennia are rare. We present a continuous spherical harmonic model for almost 3 millennia from 1000 b.c. to 1800 a.d., based on a dataset of directional archaeo- and paleomagnetic data and axial dipole constraints. The model, named Continuous Archaeomagnetic and Lake Sediment Geomagnetic Model for the last 3k years (CALS3K.1), can be used to predict both the field and secular variation. Comparisons and tests with synthetic data lead to the conclusion that CALS3K.1 gives a good general, large-scale representation of the geomagnetic field, but lacks small-scale structure due to the limited resolution of the sparse dataset. In future applications the model can be used for comparisons with additional, new data for that time span. For better resolved regions, the agreement of data with CALS3K.1 will provide an idea about the general compatibility of the data with the field and secular variation in that region of the world. For poorly covered regions and time intervals we hope to iteratively improve the model by comparisons with and inclusion of new data. Animations and additional snapshot plots of model predictions as well as the model coefficients and a FORTRAN code to evaluate them for any time can be accessed under http://www.mahi.ucsd.edu/cathy/Holocene/holocene.html. The whole package is also stored in the Earthref digital archive at http://www.earthref.org/...

  15. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  17. Challenges for the CMS Computing Model in the First Year

    CERN Document Server

    Fisk, Ian

    2009-01-01

    CMS is in the process of commissioning a complex detector and a globally distributed computing infrastructure simultaneously. This represents a unique challenge. Even at the beginning there is not sufficient analysis or organized processing resources at CERN alone. In this presentation we discuss the unique computing challenges CMS expects to face during the first year of running and how they influence the baseline computing model decisions. During the early accelerator commissioning periods, CMS will attempt to collect as many events as possible when the beam is on in order to provide adequate early commissioning data. Some of these plans involve overdriving the Tier-0 infrastructure during data collection with recovery when the beam is off. In addition to the larger number of triggered events, there will be pressure in the first year to collect and analyze more complete data formats as the summarized formats mature. The large event formats impact the required storage, bandwidth, and processing capacity acro...

  18. Model Year 2008 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  19. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  20. Model Year 2007 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  1. Model Year 2006 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2005-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  2. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  3. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  4. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  5. Synthesising 30 years of mathematical modelling of Echinococcus transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jo-An M Atkinson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Echinococcosis is a complex zoonosis that has domestic and sylvatic lifecycles, and a range of different intermediate and definitive host species. The complexities of its transmission and the sparse evidence on the effectiveness of control strategies in diverse settings provide significant challenges for the design of effective public health policy against this disease. Mathematical modelling is a useful tool for simulating control packages under locally specific transmission conditions to inform optimal timing and frequency of phased interventions for cost-effective control of echinococcosis. The aims of this review of 30 years of Echinococcus modelling were to discern the epidemiological mechanisms underpinning models of Echinococcus granulosus and E. multilocularis transmission and to establish the need to include a human transmission component in such models. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A search was conducted of all relevant articles published up until July 2012, identified from the PubMED, Web of Knowledge and Medline databases and review of bibliographies of selected papers. Papers eligible for inclusion were those describing the design of a new model, or modification of an existing mathematical model of E. granulosus or E. multilocularis transmission. A total of 13 eligible papers were identified, five of which described mathematical models of E. granulosus and eight that described E. multilocularis transmission. These models varied primarily on the basis of six key mechanisms that all have the capacity to modulate model dynamics, qualitatively affecting projections. These are: 1 the inclusion of a 'latent' class and/or time delay from host exposure to infectiousness; 2 an age structure for animal hosts; 3 the presence of density-dependent constraints; 4 accounting for seasonality; 5 stochastic parameters; and 6 inclusion of spatial and risk structures. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This review discusses the conditions under

  6. Challenges for the CMS computing model in the first year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, I, E-mail: ifisk@fnal.go [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (United States)

    2010-04-01

    CMS is in the process of commissioning a complex detector and a globally distributed computing infrastructure simultaneously. This represents a unique challenge. Even at the beginning there is not sufficient analysis or organized processing resources at CERN alone. In this presentation we discuss the unique computing challenges CMS expects to face during the first year of running and how they influence the baseline computing model decisions. During the early accelerator commissioning periods, CMS will attempt to collect as many events as possible when the beam is on in order to provide adequate early commissioning data. Some of these plans involve overdriving the Tier-0 infrastructure during data collection with recovery when the beam is off. In addition to the larger number of triggered events, there will be pressure in the first year to collect and analyze more complete data formats as the summarized formats mature. The large event formats impact the required storage, bandwidth, and processing capacity across all the computing centers. While the understanding of the detector and the event selections is being improved, there will likely be a larger number of reconstruction passes and skims performed by both central operations and individual users. We discuss how these additional stresses impact the allocation of resources and the changes from the baseline computing model.

  7. Challenges for the CMS computing model in the first year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fisk, I.; /Fermilab

    2009-05-01

    CMS is in the process of commissioning a complex detector and a globally distributed computing infrastructure simultaneously. This represents a unique challenge. Even at the beginning there is not sufficient analysis or organized processing resources at CERN alone. In this presentation we discuss the unique computing challenges CMS expects to face during the first year of running and how they influence the baseline computing model decisions. During the early accelerator commissioning periods, CMS will attempt to collect as many events as possible when the beam is on in order to provide adequate early commissioning data. Some of these plans involve overdriving the Tier-0 infrastructure during data collection with recovery when the beam is off. In addition to the larger number of triggered events, there will be pressure in the first year to collect and analyze more complete data formats as the summarized formats mature. The large event formats impact the required storage, bandwidth, and processing capacity across all the computing centers. While the understanding of the detector and the event selections is being improved, there will likely be a larger number of reconstruction passes and skims performed by both central operations and individual users. We discuss how these additional stresses impact the allocation of resources and the changes from the baseline computing model.

  8. Fifty years of numerical modeling of baroclinic ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkisyan, A. S.

    2012-02-01

    This paper presents a brief critical analysis of the main historical stages of numerical modeling for the last fifty years. It was a half a century ago that the numerical simulation of an actual baroclinic ocean was initiated by the author and his students [1, 2]. In meteorology, studies on the numerical modeling of a baroclinic atmosphere existed much earlier [21, 22]. Despite this, a similar move in oceanography was met with strong resistance. At that time, there were many studies on the calculation of the total mass transport. The founders of this field, V.B. Shtokman, H. Sverdrup, and W. Munk, were mistaken in believing that they addressed baroclinic models of the ocean. The author preferred works by V. Ekman [12] and I. Sandström and B. Helland-Hansen [19]. A generalization of recent studies made it possible to come to some conclusions on the need to use the level of the free oceanic surface as a basis rather than the function of total mass transport, on the role of the baroclinic β effect (BARBE), on the joint effect of baroclinicity and bottom relief (JEBAR), etc. The author conditionally divides these fifty years into the following three stages. (1) The first stage was 1961-1969, when the author and his students performed almost exclusively diagnostic and adaptation calculations of climatic characteristics. (2) The second stage began with papers by K. Bryan [23] and his students. This is an important and promising stage involving mainly prognostic studies and four-dimensional analysis. The major advances in modeling at this stage (the Gulf Stream separation point [61], the Kuroshio seasonal evolution [63], the formation of the cold intermediate layer in the Black Sea [80], the subsurface countercurrent in the Caspian Sea [25], the realistic four-dimensional analysis of the Kara Sea [60], etc.) were due to high-resolution and/or data assimilation with an adequate period of integration. (3) The third stage began with the activities of international

  9. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  10. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  11. Theories beyond the standard model, one year before the LHC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimopoulos, Savas

    2006-04-01

    Next year the Large Hadron Collider at CERN will begin what may well be a new golden era of particle physics. I will discuss three theories that will be tested at the LHC. I will begin with the supersymmetric standard model, proposed with Howard Georgi in 1981. This theory made a precise quantitative prediction, the unification of couplings, that has been experimentally confirmed in 1991 by experiments at CERN and SLAC. This established it as the leading theory for physics beyond the standard model. Its main prediction, the existence of supersymmetric particles, will be tested at the large hadron collider. I will next overview theories with large new dimensions, proposed with Nima Arkani-Hamed and Gia Dvali in 1998. This links the weakness of gravity to the presence of sub-millimeter size dimensions, that are presently searched for in experiments looking for deviations from Newton's law at short distances. In this framework quantum gravity, string theory, and black holes may be experimentally investigated at the large hadron collider. I will end with the recent proposal of split supersymmetry with Nima Arkani-Hamed. This theory is motivated by the possible existence of an enormous number of ground states in the fundamental theory, as suggested by the cosmological constant problem and recent developments in string theory and cosmology. It can be tested at the large hadron collider and, if confirmed, it will lend support to the idea that our universe and its laws are not unique and that there is an enormous variety of universes each with its own distinct physical laws.

  12. Eight Year Climatologies from Observational (AIRS) and Model (MERRA) Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearty, Thomas; Savtchenko, Andrey; Won, Young-In; Theobalk, Mike; Vollmer, Bruce; Manning, Evan; Smith, Peter; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Greg

    2010-01-01

    We examine climatologies derived from eight years of temperature, water vapor, cloud, and trace gas observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flying on the Aqua satellite and compare them to similar climatologies constructed with data from a global assimilation model, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We use the AIRS climatologies to examine anomalies and trends in the AIRS data record. Since sampling can be an issue for infrared satellites in low earth orbit, we also use the MERRA data to examine the AIRS sampling biases. By sampling the MERRA data at the AIRS space-time locations both with and without the AIRS quality control we estimate the sampling bias of the AIRS climatology and the atmospheric conditions where AIRS has a lower sampling rate. While the AIRS temperature and water vapor sampling biases are small at low latitudes, they can be more than a few degrees in temperature or 10 percent in water vapor at higher latitudes. The largest sampling biases are over desert. The AIRS and MERRA data are available from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The AIRS climatologies we used are available for analysis with the GIOVANNI data exploration tool. (see, http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

  13. Model year 2010 Ford Fusion Level-1 testing report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rask, E.; Bocci, D.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H.; Energy Systems

    2010-11-23

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Ford Fusion was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of vehicle-level testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity. Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network information, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles, and A/C usage cycles were conducted. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database. The major results are shown in this report. Given the benchmark nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and sought to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from an exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current/voltage from a DC power analyzer, and CAN bus data such as engine speed, engine load, and electric machine operation. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Fusion and provide insight into unique features of its operation and design.

  14. Acoustic Vocal Tract Model of One-year-old Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vojnović

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The physical shape of vocal tract and its formant (resonant frequencies are directly related. The study of this functional connectivity is essential in speech therapy practice with children. Most of the perceived children’s speech anomalies can be explained on a physical level: malfunctioning movement of articulation organs. The current problem is that there is no enough data on the anatomical shape of children’s vocal tract to create its acoustic model. Classical techniques for vocal tract shape imaging (X-ray, magnetic resonance, etc. are not appropriate for children. One possibility is to start from the shape of the adult vocal tract and correct it based on anatomical, morphological and articulatory differences between children and adults. This paper presents a method for vocal tract shape estimation of the child aged one year. The initial shapes of the vocal tract refer to the Russian vowels spoken by an adult male. All the relevant anatomical and articulation parameters, that influence the formant frequencies, are analyzed. Finally, the hypothetical configurations of the children’s vocal tract, for the five vowels, are presented.

  15. Model year 2010 Honda insight level-1 testing report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rask, E.; Bocci, D.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H. (Energy Systems)

    2011-03-22

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Honda Insight was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of vehicle-level testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA). Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network information, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer data). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles and A/C usage cycles were tested. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database (D3). The major results are shown here in this report. Given the preliminary nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and seeks to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from an exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current and voltage from a DC power analyzer, and CAN bus data such as engine speed, engine load, and electric machine operation when available. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Insight and provide insight into unique features of its operation and design.

  16. Building a Model of Early Years Professionalism from Practitioners’ Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, Avril

    2013-01-01

    Practitioner voice has been absent from debates regarding what constitutes professional behaviour and practice in the early years. This research identifies and uses the professional knowledge of a group of early years educators to create a typology of professionalism. The typology comprises seven inter-related dimensions of early years…

  17. Cupola modeling research: Phase 2 (Year one), Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-11-20

    Objective was to develop a mathematical model of the cupola furnace (cast iron production) in on-line and off-line process control and optimization. In Phase I, the general structure of the heat transfer, fluid flow, and chemical models were laid out, providing reasonable descriptions of cupola behavior with a one-dimensional representation. Work was also initiated on a two-dimensional model. Phase II was focused on perfecting the one-dimensional model. The contributions include these from MIT, Michigan University, and GM.

  18. Waste pretreatment and interfacing system dynamic simulation model (ITHINK model) FY-96 year-end report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harmsen, R.W.

    1996-09-30

    The Waste Pretreatment and Interfacing Systems Dynamic Simulation (ITHINK) Model (see WHC-SD-WM-DR-013) was originally created to investigate the required pretreatment facility processing rates required to meet the Tri-Party Agreement (TPA) waste vitrification milestones. The TPA milestones are satisfied by retrieving the TX tank farm (salt cake) single-shell tanks (SSTs)first and by utilizing a relatively constant retrieval rate to the year 2018 when retrieval is completed.

  19. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-05-11

    This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

  20. An Innovative Learning Model for Computation in First Year Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkes, E. J.; Loch, B. I.; Stace, A. W.

    2005-01-01

    MATLAB is a sophisticated software tool for numerical analysis and visualization. The University of Queensland has adopted Matlab as its official teaching package across large first year mathematics courses. In the past, the package has met severe resistance from students who have not appreciated their computational experience. Several main…

  1. Model forest program: Year in review, 1992-1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    As part of the Green Plan, introduced by the Federal Government in late 1990, a network of model forests was developed to demonstrate the concept of sustainable forest management in practical terms on a working scale. This annual report describes the competitive site selection process, the forests involved in the project, program milestones, the operation of model forests, and highlights of the project. Financial data is included.

  2. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  3. Modelling loans and deposits during electoral years i n Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae - Marius JULA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effect of electoral years on loans and deposits for population in Romania. Using monthly data regarding the total loans and deposits, we identify the significance of the electoral timing on population´s behavior regarding financial decisions. We estimate that there are small changes in population´s affinity for increase in the indebtedness or for savings. We use dummy variables for electoral periods, and when these are econometrically significant there is an evidence of the influence of the electoral timings in population´s financial decisions.

  4. Aggressive symbolic model identification in 13 year-old youths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Vidal

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Although a great amount of research has been carried out about the effects of media on the audience, few studies deal with the process that determines why the viewers identify with a specific symbolic model instead of choosing any other. In this descriptive study we try to highlight similarity identification, focusing on aggressive model identification. A sample of 203 participants, both male and female, aged 13, and with a high socioeconomic level viewed different films sequences. They were asked to answer to a questionnaire both before and after watching the clip. This questionnaire included an adjective list about the traits that best defined themselves, their favorite characters, and characters they didn’t like. Results show a clear correspondence between the participants’ self-perceived traits and those perceived for the main characters in the film. Self-perceived traits were opposed to those perceived in the main characters opponents.

  5. Development and impact analysis of 3-year-old child FE human model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koizumi, T.; Tsujiuchi, N.; Taki, N.; Forbes, P.A.; Lange, R. de

    2007-01-01

    In a previous study, a 3-year old child FE human model was developed by scaling down an adult male FE human model. Scaling down was performed for body dimensions, joint characteristics, and material properties. The focus of this current study is biofidelity validation and enhancement of the 3-year-o

  6. Twenty years of experience with the rabbit model, a versatile model for tracheal transplantation research

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Margot Den Hondt; Bart M Vanaudenaerde; Pierre Delaere; Jan J Vranckx

    2016-01-01

    Pathologies comprising more than half the length of the trachea are a challenge to the reconstructive surgeon. Innovative tracheal transplantation techniques aim to offer the patient a curative solution with a sustained improvement in quality of life. This review summarizes the authors’ experience with the rabbit as a versatile model for research regarding tracheal transplantation. Because of the segmental blood supply of the trachea, it is not feasible to transplant the organ together with a well-defined vascular pedicle. As such, the key element of successful tracheal transplantation is the creation of a new blood supply. This vascularized construct is created by prelaminating the rabbit trachea heterotopically, within the lateral thoracic fascia. After prelamination, the construct and its vascular pedicle are transferred to the orthotopic position in the neck. This model has become gold standard because of the advantages of working with rabbits, the anatomy of the rabbit trachea, and the reliability of the lateral thoracic artery flap. In this paper, the key elements of surgery in the rabbit are discussed, as well as the tracheal anastomosis and the harvest of the lateral thoracic artery flap. Practical tips and tricks are presented. The data described in this review represent the fundaments of ongoing translational research in the center over the past twenty years.

  7. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of life. ... social demographic and environmental characteristics to differentials in children ... years and predicted survivals for 6th to 10th years of life using life table techniques ...

  8. Understanding Weight Management Perceptions in First-Year College Students Using the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bhibha M.; Evans, Ellen M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine weight management barriers, using the Health Belief Model, in first-year college students. Participants: First-year college students (n = 45), with data collected in April, May, and November 2013. Methods: Nominal group technique sessions (n = 8) were conducted. Results: First-year students recognize benefits to weight…

  9. Understanding Weight Management Perceptions in First-Year College Students Using the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bhibha M.; Evans, Ellen M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine weight management barriers, using the Health Belief Model, in first-year college students. Participants: First-year college students (n = 45), with data collected in April, May, and November 2013. Methods: Nominal group technique sessions (n = 8) were conducted. Results: First-year students recognize benefits to weight…

  10. Structural model of in-group dynamic of 6-10 years old boys’ motor fitness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivashchenko O.V.

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to determine structural model of in-group dynamic of 6-10 years old boys’ motor fitness. Material: in the research 6 years old boys (n=48, 7 years old (n=45, 8 years old (n=60, 9 years’ age (n=47 and10 years’ age (n=40 participated. We carried out analysis of factorial model of schoolchildren’s motor fitness. Results: we received information for taking decisions in monitoring of physical education. This information is also necessary for working out of effective programs of children’s and adolescents’ physical training. We determined model of motor fitness and specified informative tests for pedagogic control in every age group. In factorial model of boys’ motor fitness the following factor is the most significant: for 6 years - complex development of motor skills; for 7 years - also complex development of motor skills; for 8 years - strength and coordination; for 9 years - complex development of motor skills; for 10 years - complex development of motor skills. Conclusions: In factorial model of 6-10 years old boys’ motor fitness the most significant are backbone and shoulder joints’ mobility, complex manifestation of motor skills, motor coordination. The most informative tests for assessment of different age boys’ motor fitness have been determined.

  11. Measuring Years of Inactivity, Years in Retirement, Time to Retirement, and Age at Retirement Within the Markov Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    SKOOG, GARY R.; CIECKA, JAMES E.

    2010-01-01

    Retirement-related concepts are treated as random variables within Markov process models that capture multiple labor force entries and exits. The expected number of years spent outside of the labor force, expected years in retirement, and expected age at retirement are computed—all of which are of immense policy interest but have been heretofore reported with less precisely measured proxies. Expected age at retirement varies directly with a person’s age; but even younger people can expect to retire at ages substantially older than those commonly associated with retirement, such as age 60, 62, or 65. Between 1970 and 2003, men allocated most of their increase in life expectancy to increased time in retirement, but women allocated most of their increased life expectancy to labor force activity. Although people can exit and reenter the labor force at older ages, most 65-year-old men who are active in the labor force will not reenter after they eventually exit. At age 65, the probability that those who are inactive will reenter the labor force at some future time is .38 for men and .27 for women. Life expectancy at exact ages is decomposed into the sum of the expected time spent active and inactive in the labor force, and also as the sum of the expected time to labor force separation and time in retirement. PMID:20879680

  12. Safety Changes in the US Vehicle Fleet since Model Year 1990, Based on NASS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigen, Ana Maria; Digges, Kennerly; Samaha, Randa Radwan

    2012-01-01

    Based on the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System since the 1988–1992 model years, there has been a reduction in the MAIS 3+ injury rate and the Mean HARM for all crash modes. The largest improvement in vehicle safety has been in rollovers. There was an increase in the rollover injury rate in the 1993–1998 model year period, but a reduction since then. When comparing vehicles of the model year 1993 to 1998 with later model vehicles, the most profound difference was the reduction of rollover frequency for SUV’s – down more than 20% when compared to other crash modes. When considering only model years since 2002 the rollover frequency reduction was nearly 40%. A 26% reduction in the rate of moderate and serious injuries for all drivers in rollovers was observed for the model years later than 1998. The overall belt use rate for drivers of late model vehicles with HARM weighted injuries was 62% - up from 54% in earlier model vehicles. However, in rollover crashes, the same belt use rate lagged at 54%. PMID:23169134

  13. Safety Changes in the US Vehicle Fleet since Model Year 1990, Based on NASS Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigen, Ana Maria; Digges, Kennerly; Samaha, Randa Radwan

    2012-01-01

    Based on the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System since the 1988-1992 model years, there has been a reduction in the MAIS 3+ injury rate and the Mean HARM for all crash modes. The largest improvement in vehicle safety has been in rollovers. There was an increase in the rollover injury rate in the 1993-1998 model year period, but a reduction since then. When comparing vehicles of the model year 1993 to 1998 with later model vehicles, the most profound difference was the reduction of rollover frequency for SUV's - down more than 20% when compared to other crash modes. When considering only model years since 2002 the rollover frequency reduction was nearly 40%. A 26% reduction in the rate of moderate and serious injuries for all drivers in rollovers was observed for the model years later than 1998. The overall belt use rate for drivers of late model vehicles with HARM weighted injuries was 62% - up from 54% in earlier model vehicles. However, in rollover crashes, the same belt use rate lagged at 54%.

  14. Bianchi Type VII_h Models and the WMAP 3-year Data

    CERN Document Server

    Jaffe, T R; Eriksen, H K; Górski, K M; Hansen, F K

    2006-01-01

    Context. A specific example of Bianchi Type VIIh models, i.e. those including universal rotation (vorticity) and differential expansion (shear), has been shown in Jaffe et al. (2005) to correlate unexpectedly with the WMAP first-year data. Aims. We re-assess the signature of this model in the WMAP 3-year data. Methods. The cross-correlation methods are described in Jaffe et al. (2006a). We use the WMAP 3-year data release, including maps for individual years, and perform additional comparisons to assess the influence of both noise and residual foregrounds and eliminate potential non-cosmological sources for the correlation. Results. We confirm that the signal is detected in both the combined 3-year data and the individual yearly sky maps at a level consistent with our original analysis. The significance of the correlation is not affected by either noise or foreground residuals. Conclusions. The results of our previous study are unchanged.

  15. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 1 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2013-01-01

    On September 22, 2012, NSF announced its decision to fund a three-year project, "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO). In the first year of grant operation, MIAEO has invited 18 high school students, two K-12 teachers, and two CSUB student assistants to conduct research explorations in the fields of…

  16. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  17. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  18. Predictors and Characteristics of Erikson's Life Cycle Model Among Men: A 32-Year Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westermeyer, Jerry F.

    2004-01-01

    To assess Erikson's life cycle model, 86 men, initially selected for health, were prospectively studied at age 21, and reassessed 32 years later at age 53. Using the Vaillant and Milofsky (1980) modification of Erikson's model, 48 men (56%) achieved generativity, an advanced developmental stage, at follow-up. Results generally support Erikson's…

  19. Nano-Continuum Modeling of a Nuclear Glass Specimen Altered for 25 Years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, Carl

    2014-01-06

    The purpose of this contribution is to report on preliminary nano-continuum scale modeling of nuclear waste glass corrosion. The focus of the modeling is an experiment involving a French glass SON68 specimen leached for 25 years in a granitic environment. In this report, we focus on capturing the nano-scale concentration profiles. We use a high resolution continuum model with a constant grid spacing of 1 nanometer to investigate the glass corrosion mechanisms.

  20. Nano-Continuum Modeling of a Nuclear Glass Specimen Altered for 25 Years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, Carl

    2014-01-06

    The purpose of this contribution is to report on preliminary nano-continuum scale modeling of nuclear waste glass corrosion. The focus of the modeling is an experiment involving a French glass SON68 specimen leached for 25 years in a granitic environment. In this report, we focus on capturing the nano-scale concentration profiles. We use a high resolution continuum model with a constant grid spacing of 1 nanometer to investigate the glass corrosion mechanisms.

  1. Model Independent Foreground Power Spectrum Estimation using WMAP 5-year Data

    CERN Document Server

    Ghosh, Tuhin; Jain, Pankaj; Souradeep, Tarun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose & implement on WMAP 5-year data, a model independent approach of foreground power spectrum estimation for multifrequency observations of CMB experiments. Recently a model independent approach of CMB power spectrum estimation was proposed by Saha et al. 2006. This methodology demonstrates that CMB power spectrum can be reliably estimated solely from WMAP data without assuming any template models for the foreground components. In the current paper, we extend this work to estimate the galactic foreground power spectrum using the WMAP 5 year maps following a self contained analysis. We apply the model independent method in harmonic basis to estimate the foreground power spectrum and frequency dependence of combined foregrounds. We also study the behaviour of synchrotron spectral index variation over different regions of the sky. We compare our results with those obtained from MEM foreground maps which are formed in pixel space. We find that relative to our model independent estimates...

  2. First-Year Village: Experimenting with an African Model for First-Year Adjustment and Support in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speckman, McGlory

    2016-01-01

    Predicated on the principles of success and contextuality, this chapter shares an African perspective on a first-year adjustment programme, known as First-Year Village, including its potential and challenges in establishing it.

  3. Professional identity acquisition process model in interprofessional education using structural equation modelling: 10-year initiative survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kururi, Nana; Tozato, Fusae; Lee, Bumsuk; Kazama, Hiroko; Katsuyama, Shiori; Takahashi, Maiko; Abe, Yumiko; Matsui, Hiroki; Tokita, Yoshiharu; Saitoh, Takayuki; Kanaizumi, Shiomi; Makino, Takatoshi; Shinozaki, Hiromitsu; Yamaji, Takehiko; Watanabe, Hideomi

    2016-01-01

    The mandatory interprofessional education (IPE) programme at Gunma University, Japan, was initiated in 1999. A questionnaire of 10 items to assess the students' understanding of the IPE training programme has been distributed since then, and the factor analysis of the responses revealed that it was categorised into four subscales, i.e. "professional identity", "structure and function of training facilities", "teamwork and collaboration", and "role and responsibilities", and suggested that these may take into account the development of IPE programme with clinical training. The purpose of this study was to examine the professional identity acquisition process (PIAP) model in IPE using structural equation modelling (SEM). Overall, 1,581 respondents of a possible 1,809 students from the departments of nursing, laboratory sciences, physical therapy, and occupational therapy completed the questionnaire. The SEM technique was utilised to construct a PIAP model on the relationships among four factors. The original PIAP model showed that "professional identity" was predicted by two factors, namely "role and responsibilities" and "teamwork and collaboration". These two factors were predicted by the factor "structure and function of training facilities". The same structure was observed in nursing and physical therapy students' PIAP models, but it was not completely the same in laboratory sciences and occupational therapy students' PIAP models. A parallel but not isolated curriculum on expertise unique to the profession, which may help to understand their professional identity in combination with learning the collaboration, may be necessary.

  4. Model forest program: Year in review, 1993-94. Annual publication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-12-31

    The Model Forest Program was initiated in response to concerns expressed by Canadians about their environment during a nationwide consultative process carried out in 1990. The Program is designed to promote the creation of local partnerships and to encourage these partnerships to formulate and implement their own working vision of sustainable forest management. This document presents developments to date, the Model Forest Network, and models across the country. Information is also included on the International Model Forest Program and Russia joining the Network. A budget for the year and an organizational chart are included.

  5. The drug-target residence time model: a 10-year retrospective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Robert A

    2016-02-01

    The drug-target residence time model was first introduced in 2006 and has been broadly adopted across the chemical biology, biotechnology and pharmaceutical communities. While traditional in vitro methods view drug-target interactions exclusively in terms of equilibrium affinity, the residence time model takes into account the conformational dynamics of target macromolecules that affect drug binding and dissociation. The key tenet of this model is that the lifetime (or residence time) of the binary drug-target complex, and not the binding affinity per se, dictates much of the in vivo pharmacological activity. Here, this model is revisited and key applications of it over the past 10 years are highlighted.

  6. Model forest network: Year in review, 1994-95. Annual publication

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-07-01

    The Model Forest Program was initiated in response to concerns expressed by Canadians about their environment during a nationwide consultative process carried out in 1990. The Program is designed to promote the creation of local partnerships and to encourage these partnerships to formulate and implement their own working vision of sustainable forest management. This document presents developments to date, the Model Forest Network, and models across the country. Information is also included on the International Model Forest Program and Russia joining the Network. A budget for the year and an organizational chart are included.

  7. 25 Years of Model-Driven Web Engineering: What we achieved, What is missing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rossi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Model-Driven Web Engineering (MDWE approaches aim to improve the Web applications development process by focusing on modeling instead of coding, and deriving the running application by transformations from conceptual models to code. The emergence of the Interaction Flow Modeling Language (IFML has been an important milestone in the evolution of Web modeling languages, indicating not only the maturity of the field but also a final convergence of languages. In this paper we explain the evolution of modeling and design approaches since the early years (in the 90’s detailing the forces which drove that evolution and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of some of those approaches. A brief presentation of the IFML is accompanied with a thorough analysis of the most important achievements of the MDWE community as well as the problems and obstacles that hinder the dissemination of model-driven techniques in the Web engineering field.

  8. Thirteen years after. Using hierarchical linear modeling to investigate long-term assessment center validity

    OpenAIRE

    Jansen, P.G.W.

    2003-01-01

    Using hierarchical linear modeling the author investigated temporal trends in the predictive validity of an assessment center for career advancement (measured as salary growth) over a 13-year period, for a sample of 456 academic graduates. Using year of entry and tenure as controls, linear and quadratic properties of individual salary curves could be predicted by the assessment center dimensions. The validity of the (clinical) overall assessment rating for persons with tenure of at least 12 y...

  9. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Years of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, N.; Finlay, C. C.; Kotsiaros, S.

    2015-12-01

    Two years of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth's magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites and alongtrack first differences we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from two years of Swarm satellite data by comparison with other recent models that also include non-Swarm magnetic observations.

  10. Air pollution dispersion model in Prague - land development plan modelling of the year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hornicek, K. [Road and Motorway Directorate (Czech Republic)

    2000-07-01

    Prague municipality operates an unique air pollution model, which reflects changing of air quality situation in the town. The model was generated at the beginning of last decade and solves gradual changes of air quality in a period of 90's. The next logical step aims to upgrade this model as a tool for visualisation of all predictable air quality changes, which can affect environmental condition for inhabitants in Prague region. The object of model simulation is to estimate these changes in term of 2010. The model simulation includes following problems: Share of heating media in near future variants of heating systems used in the different residential parts of the town planned system of new roads used at that time traffic volume in network of existing and new roads traffic condition, emission parameters of air pollutants coming from power plants, heating systems, cars and trucks All the above described problems content emission and concentration parts of air pollutants. The road network of the city has been simulated by using about 3000 pieces of road segment and 350 pieces of crossing with original track values, speed, grade and traffic conditions. One of the aims of the final project is to visualize the main changes between present concentrations of different pollutants and the target concentrations in 2010. The key pollutant, which is very significant for the road network of the city, is NOx. Present situation in the field of transport is: 90 % of the area - air pollution is getting better remaining 10 % of the area - concentration of pollutants are increasing (mainly in the neighbourhood of main motorways and newly designed roads). The main reason for improvement of global air pollution situation in Prague is rapid progress of changes in heating systems of residential areas in the town. In comparison with that total emissions coming from transport are generally in the same level like in 1998. The highest values of concentration are present along new large

  11. Cosmological-constant cold dark matter models and the cobe two-year Sky maps

    CERN Document Server

    Bunn, E F; Emory F Bunn; Naoshi Sugiyama

    1994-01-01

    Abstract. We compare the two-year COBE DMR sky maps with the predictions of cosmological-constant cold dark matter models. Using a Bayesian analysis, we find that the most likely value of the cosmological constant in such a model is Lambda = 0. The data set an upper limit on Lambda of 0.71 (0.78) at 90% confidence, and 0.78 (0.86) at 95% confidence with (without) the quadrupole anisotropy.

  12. Regional modelling of the Geomagnetic Field in Europe for the last 8000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavon-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Osete, Maria Luisa; Miquel Torta, J.

    2010-05-01

    From a selected compilation of sedimentary and archaeomagnetic data a new low-degree regional geomagnetic model for the European Continent valid for the period 6000 BC to 1000 BC has been developed. This model provides information about the direction (declination and inclination) and intensity of the Earth's Magnetic Field in Europe during 5000 years, from 6000 BC to 1000 BC. By connecting it with our SCHA.DIF.3K previous model valid from 1000 BC to 1900 AD and the IGRF, we furnish continuous geomagnetic field information for the last 8000 years. The new model is called SCHA.DIF.8K. It has been developed using the Revised Spherical Cap Harmonic Analysis in 2 Dimensions technique (R-SCHA2D, Thébault, 2008, GJI) and the norm of the Earth's Magnetic Field to constrain the inversion problem. The size of the cap is 22°. The maximum degree of the expansion is 2. The linearization problem has been solved using the truncation Taylor's series applied to the expressions of the relationship between the declination, inclination and intensity data and the Cartesian component of the geomagnetic field. As initial or reference we used the Geocentric Axial Dipole field. In time, we used the classical sliding overlapping window method. The size of the window was set to 100 years shifted 50 years. We have compared the model's prediction with the input data and with the global CALS7K.2 model. The regional model shows a better fitting to the input data than the global model, especially for the intensity data.

  13. Parental influences on 7–9 year olds’ physical activity: A conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leary, Janie M.; Lilly, Christa L.; Dino, Geri; Loprinzi, Paul D.; Cottrell, Lesley

    2016-01-01

    Objective Models characterizing parental influence on child and adolescent physical activity (PA) over time are limited. Preschool and Adolescent Models (PM and AM) of PA are available leaving the need to focus on elementary-aged children. We tested current models (PM and AM) with a sample of 7–9 year-olds, and then developed a model appropriate to this specific target population. Methods Parent–child dyads completed questionnaires in 2010–2011. All models were assessed using path analysis and model fit indices. Results For adequate power, 90 families were needed, with 174 dyads participating. PM and AM exhibited poor fit when applied to the study population. A gender-specific model was developed and demonstrated acceptable fit. To develop an acceptable model for this population, constructs from both the PM (i.e. parental perception of child competency) and AM (i.e., child-reported self-efficacy) were used. For boys, self-efficacy was a strong predictor of PA, which was influenced by various parental variables. For girls, parental PA demonstrated the greatest strength of association with child PA. Conclusion This new model can be used to promote PA and guide future research/interventions. Future studies, particularly longitudinal designs, are needed to confirm the utility of this model as a bridge between currently available models. PMID:23438761

  14. Modeling Seven Years of Event Horizon Telescope Observations with Radiatively Inefficient Accretion Flow Models

    CERN Document Server

    Broderick, Avery E; Johnson, Michael D; Rosenfeld, Katherine; Wang, Carlos; Doeleman, Sheperd S; Akiyama, Kazunori; Johannsen, Tim; Roy, Alan L

    2016-01-01

    An initial three-station version of the Event Horizon Telescope, a millimeter-wavelength very-long baseline interferometer, has observed Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) repeatedly from 2007 to 2013, resulting in the measurement of a variety of interferometric quantities. Of particular importance, there is now a large set of closure phases, measured over a number of independent observing epochs. We analyze these observations within the context of a realization of semi-analytic radiatively inefficient disk models, implicated by the low luminosity of Sgr A*. We find a broad consistency among the various observing epochs and between different interferometric data types, with the latter providing significant support for this class of models of Sgr A*. The new data significantly tighten existing constraints on the spin magnitude and its orientation within this model context, finding a spin magnitude of $a=0.10^{+0.30+0.56}_{-0.10-0.10}$, an inclination with respect to the line of sight of $\\theta={60^\\circ}^{+5^\\circ+10^\\c...

  15. A comparison of emission calculations using different modeled indicators with 1-year online measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengers, Bernd; Schiefler, Inga; Büscher, Wolfgang

    2013-12-01

    The overall measurement of farm level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production is not feasible, from either an engineering or administrative point of view. Instead, computational model systems are used to generate emission inventories, demanding a validation by measurement data. This paper tests the GHG calculation of the dairy farm-level optimization model DAIRYDYN, including methane (CH₄) from enteric fermentation and managed manure. The model involves four emission calculation procedures (indicators), differing in the aggregation level of relevant input variables. The corresponding emission factors used by the indicators range from default per cow (activity level) emissions up to emission factors based on feed intake, manure amount, and milk production intensity. For validation of the CH₄ accounting of the model, 1-year CH₄ measurements of an experimental free-stall dairy farm in Germany are compared to model simulation results. An advantage of this interdisciplinary study is given by the correspondence of the model parameterization and simulation horizon with the experimental farm's characteristics and measurement period. The results clarify that modeled emission inventories (2,898, 4,637, 4,247, and 3,600 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1)) lead to more or less good approximations of online measurements (average 3,845 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1) (±275 owing to manure management)) depending on the indicator utilized. The more farm-specific characteristics are used by the GHG indicator; the lower is the bias of the modeled emissions. Results underline that an accurate emission calculation procedure should capture differences in energy intake, owing to milk production intensity as well as manure storage time. Despite the differences between indicator estimates, the deviation of modeled GHGs using detailed indicators in DAIRYDYN from on-farm measurements is relatively low (between -6.4% and 10.5%), compared with findings from the literature.

  16. A Model for Two-Year and Baccalaureate Clinical Dental Hygiene Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gluch-Scranton, Joan; Gurenlian, JoAnn Rigolizzo

    1985-01-01

    Models for associate and bachelors degree programs training dental hygienists are proposed as a step in eliminating technical training for dental hygiene education and in delineating roles for the graduates of two- and four-year programs. They outline clinical and professional skills, practice settings, and supervision levels for each group. (MSE)

  17. 40 CFR 86.410-90 - Emission standards for 1990 and later model year motorcycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 1990 and later model year motorcycles. 86.410-90 Section 86.410-90 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES Emission Regulations for 1978...

  18. 49 CFR 536.6 - Treatment of credits earned prior to model year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Treatment of credits earned prior to model year 2011. 536.6 Section 536.6 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL ECONOMY CREDITS § 536.6 Treatment of...

  19. 49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years. 526.5 Section 526.5 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PETITIONS AND PLANS FOR RELIEF UNDER THE AUTOMOBILE FUEL EFFICIENCY...

  20. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 2 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2014-01-01

    "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO) is an NSF-funded, three-year project to support hands-on explorations in "network security" and "cryptography" through Research Experience Vitalizing Science-University Program (REVS-UP) at California State University, Bakersfield. In addition, the…

  1. Analysis of the Impacts of City Year's Whole School Whole Child Model on Partner Schools' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Julie; Anderson, Leslie M.

    2015-01-01

    City Year is a learning organization committed to the rigorous evaluation of its "Whole School Whole Child" model, which trains and deploys teams of AmeriCorps members to low-performing, urban schools to empower more students to reach their full potential. A third-party study by Policy Studies Associates (PSA) examined the impact of…

  2. A 1000-year simulation with the IPSL ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Conil

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A 1000-year climate simulation is run with the ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed at the Institute Pierre- Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris. No flux adjustment is used. The drift of the model is analyzed in terms of the seasurface temperature and deep ocean temperature. When the model's own equilibrium is reached, it is found that the Antarctic bottom water production experiences large-amplitude variation, oscillating between strong and weak episodes. This can yield oceanic temperature variation in the Southern Hemisphere and for the global mean.

  3. Physical aggression, compromised social support, and 10-year marital outcomes: Testing a relational spillover model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kieran T; Pasch, Lauri A; Lawrence, Erika; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to test a relational spillover model of physical aggression whereby physical aggression affects marital outcomes due to its effects on how spouses ask for and provide support to one another. Newlywed couples (n = 172) reported levels of physical aggression over the past year and engaged in interactions designed to elicit social support; marital adjustment, and stability were assessed periodically over the first 10 years of marriage. Multilevel modeling revealed that negative support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and 10-year marital adjustment levels whereas positive support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and divorce status. These findings emphasize the need to look beyond conflict when explaining how aggression affects relationships and when working with couples with a history of physical aggression who are seeking to improve their relationships.

  4. Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption: A simple production model for the next 35 years Part I

    CERN Document Server

    Dittmar, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately, studies from only 10 years ago, which tried to forecast the oil production during the next 20-30 years, failed to make accurate predictions for today's global oil production and consumption. Forecasts using economic growth scenarios, overestimated the actual oil production, while models which tried to estimate the maximum future oil production/year, using the official country oil reserve data, predicted a too low production. In this paper, a new approach to model the maximal future regional and thus global oil production (part I) and consumption (part II) during the next decades is proposed. Our analysis of the regional oil production data during past decades shows that, in contrast to periods when production was growing and growth rates varied greatly from one country to ano...

  5. The 40-year history of modeling active dendrites in cerebellar Purkinje cells: Emergence of the first single cell 'Community Model'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James M Bower

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the effects of the active properties of the Purkinje cell dendrite on neuronal function has been an active subject of study for more than 40 years. Somewhat unusually, some of these investigations, from the outset have involved an interacting combination of experimental and model-based techniques. This paper recounts that 40-year history, and the view of the functional significance of the active properties of the Purkinje cell dendrite that has emerged. It specifically considers the emergence from these efforts of what is arguably the first single cell ‘community’ model in neuroscience. The paper also considers the implications of the development of this model for future studies of the complex properties of neuronal dendrites.

  6. Modeling Seven Years of Event Horizon Telescope Observations with Radiatively Inefficient Accretion Flow Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Avery E.; Fish, Vincent L.; Johnson, Michael D.; Rosenfeld, Katherine; Wang, Carlos; Doeleman, Sheperd S.; Akiyama, Kazunori; Johannsen, Tim; Roy, Alan L.

    2016-04-01

    An initial three-station version of the Event Horizon Telescope, a millimeter-wavelength very-long baseline interferometer, has observed Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) repeatedly from 2007 to 2013, resulting in the measurement of a variety of interferometric quantities. Of particular importance is that there is now a large set of closure phases measured over a number of independent observing epochs. We analyze these observations within the context of a realization of semi-analytic radiatively inefficient disk models, implicated by the low luminosity of Sgr A*. We find a broad consistency among the various observing epochs and between different interferometric data types, with the latter providing significant support for this class of model of Sgr A*. The new data significantly tighten existing constraints on the spin magnitude and its orientation within this model context, finding a spin magnitude of a={0.10}-0.10-0.10+0.30+0.56, an inclination with respect to the line of sight of θ ={60^\\circ }-{8^\\circ -{13}^\\circ }+{5^\\circ +{10}^\\circ }, and a position angle of ξ ={156^\\circ }-{17^\\circ -{27}^\\circ }+{10^\\circ +{14}^\\circ } east of north. These are in good agreement with previous analyses. Notably, the previous 180° degeneracy in the position angle has now been conclusively broken by the inclusion of the closure-phase measurements. A reflection degeneracy in the inclination remains, permitting two localizations of the spin vector orientation, one of which is in agreement with the orbital angular momentum of the infrared gas cloud G2 and the clockwise disk of young stars. This may support a relationship between Sgr A*'s accretion flow and these larger-scale features.

  7. Final-year diagnostic radiography students' perception of role models within the profession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Alinya; Lewis, Sarah; Robinson, John

    2008-01-01

    Within a clinical education setting, the value of role models and prescribed mentors can be seen as an important influence in shaping the student's future as a diagnostic radiographer. A study was undertaken to create a new understanding of how diagnostic radiography students perceive role models and professional behavior in the workforce. The study aimed to determine the impact of clinical education in determining modeling expectations, role model identification and attributes, and the integration of academic education and "hands-on" clinical practice in preparing diagnostic radiography students to enter the workplace. Thirteen final-year (third-year) diagnostic radiography students completed an hour-long interview regarding their experiences and perceptions of role models while on clinical placement. The key concepts that emerged illustrated that students gravitate toward radiographers who enjoy sharing practical experiences with students and are good communicators. Unique to diagnostic radiography, students made distinctions about the presence of role models in private versus public service delivery. This study gives insight to clinical educators in diagnostic radiography and wider allied health into how students perceive role models, interact with preceptors, and combine real-life experiences with formal learning.

  8. A Computational Growth Model for Measuring Dynamic Cortical Development in the First Year of Life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jingxin; Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Gilmore, John H.; Lin, Weili

    2012-01-01

    Human cerebral cortex develops extremely fast in the first year of life. Quantitative measurement of cortical development during this early stage plays an important role in revealing the relationship between cortical structural and high-level functional development. This paper presents a computational growth model to simulate the dynamic development of the cerebral cortex from birth to 1 year old by modeling the cerebral cortex as a deformable elastoplasticity surface driven via a growth model. To achieve a high accuracy, a guidance model is also incorporated to estimate the growth parameters and cortical shapes at later developmental stages. The proposed growth model has been applied to 10 healthy subjects with longitudinal brain MR images acquired at every 3 months from birth to 1 year old. The experimental results show that our proposed method can capture the dynamic developmental process of the cortex, with the average surface distance error smaller than 0.6 mm compared with the ground truth surfaces, and the results also show that 1) the curvedness and sharpness decrease from 2 weeks to 12 months and 2) the frontal lobe shows rapidly increasing cortical folding during this period, with relatively slower increase of the cortical folding in the occipital and parietal lobes. PMID:22047969

  9. The Leicester Model of Interprofessional education: developing, delivering and learning from student voices for 10 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Elizabeth S; Lennox, Angela

    2009-11-01

    There are few sustained interprofessional learning opportunities in practice which engage the whole cohort of health and social care students across a region, the Leicester Model of Interprofessional Education is such an example. Since 1995 the Leicester Model has evolved to enable health and social care students to learn about the complexities of delivering multi-agency care in a range of health and social care settings. The learning environment is situated at the front line of service delivery. The education model takes students through a cycle of learning and applies a problem-solving, experiential learning approach which promotes deep learning. Follow-up data indicates that deep learning is achieved. This paper describes the original setting and presents the evaluation outcomes of the Leicester Model's "Health in the Community" course, which is delivered in city-centre communities, where inequalities in health are greatest. It traces a ten-year trajectory of interprofessional student group evaluations which helped shape this learning experience. Year-on-year positive student outcomes indicate the potential of the model to motivate and prepare future professionals for team working. Its sustainability has been achieved through ensuring the integration of education research in the development process, engagement of practitioners who value the student contributions to team working, placing patients central to the learning experience and establishing working partnerships between Higher Education Institutions, local health and social care organizations and the voluntary sector.

  10. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars;

    More than two year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm...... satellites and alongtrack first differences we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from two years...

  11. Partnerships for success: A collaborative support model to enhance the first year student experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Einfalt

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent discourse about engaging first year students calls for more collaboration in terms of adopting a holistic approach to course delivery and support. This paper discusses a collaborative support model operating at a regional Australian university since 2008. In particular, it describes a collaborative support initiative emerging from this model that is based on providing an informal consultative space where students can drop-in and gain assessment support for research, writing and content. A focus group, online surveys and interviews with co-ordinators were conducted to evaluate the impact of this initiative. Findings suggest that this collaborative support model impacts on the first year student experience by: raising awareness about academic skills and the processes for researching and writing; promoting peer learning opportunities; building confidence and providing suitable support for a diverse range of students.

  12. Development, Validation and Parametric study of a 3-Year-Old Child Head Finite Element Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihai; Chen, Yue; Li, Haiyan; Ruan, ShiJie

    2015-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury caused by drop and traffic accidents is an important reason for children's death and disability. Recently, the computer finite element (FE) head model has been developed to investigate brain injury mechanism and biomechanical responses. Based on CT data of a healthy 3-year-old child head, the FE head model with detailed anatomical structure was developed. The deep brain structures such as white matter, gray matter, cerebral ventricle, hippocampus, were firstly created in this FE model. The FE model was validated by comparing the simulation results with that of cadaver experiments based on reconstructing the child and adult cadaver experiments. In addition, the effects of skull stiffness on the child head dynamic responses were further investigated. All the simulation results confirmed the good biofidelity of the FE model.

  13. Computational Modeling of Traffic Related Thoracic Injury of a 10-Year-Old Child Using Subject-Specific Modeling Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Feng; Jiang, Binhui; Hu, Jingwen; Wang, Yulong; Shen, Ming; Yang, King H

    2016-01-01

    Traffic injuries have become a major health-related issue to school-aged children. To study this type of injury with numerical simulations, a finite element model was developed to represent the full body of a 10-year-old (YO) child. The model has been validated against test data at both body-part and full-body levels in previous studies. Representing only the average 10-YO child, this model did not include subject-specific attributes, such as the variations in size and shape among different children. In this paper, a new modeling approach was used to morph this baseline model to a subject-specific model, based on anthropometric data collected from pediatric subjects. This mesh-morphing method was then used to rapidly morph the baseline mesh into the subject-specific geometry while maintaining a good mesh quality. The morphed model was subsequently applied to simulate a real-world motor vehicle crash accident. A lung injury observed in the accident was well captured by the subject-specific model. The findings of this study demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed morphing approach to develop subject-specific human models, and confirm their capability in prediction of traffic injuries.

  14. A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

    2009-01-01

    Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

  15. A participative evaluation model to refine academic support for first year Indigenous higher education students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn Rossingh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluative approach designed to provide a cycle of continuous improvement to retain Indigenous students during their first year of higher education.   The evaluation model operates in conjunction with a student academic enrichment program that is premised on valuing and respecting each student's background and life experience whilst building capability for learning success.  Data collected will be used for continual improvement of a newly developed innovative academic enrichment program that caters to the needs of Indigenous students.  The defining mechanisms of the model for measuring the first year experience are particularly meaningful for the Australian Centre For Indigenous Knowledges and Education as it moves into its inaugural year of operation in 2012. This preeminent time requires a flexible model to receive timely feedback in a reflexive environment where students guide the process as they continue their journey of accumulating knowledge and leave behind their contribution in shaping the landscape for future first year Indigenous students.  

  16. A model of Earth's magnetic field derived from 2 years of Swarm satellite constellation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Christopher C.; Kotsiaros, Stavros; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

    2016-07-01

    More than 2 years of magnetic field data taken by the three-satellite constellation mission Swarm are used to derive a model of Earth's magnetic field and its time variation. This model is called SIFMplus. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect of Swarm by including East-West magnetic intensity and vector field gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences of the magnetic intensity as well as of the vector components provide further information concerning the North-South gradient. The SIFMplus model provides a description of the static lithospheric field that is very similar to models determined from CHAMP data, up to at least spherical harmonic degree n=75. Also the core field part of SIFMplus, with a quadratic time dependence for n ≤ 6 and a linear time dependence for n=7-15, demonstrates the possibility to determine high-quality field models from only 2 years of Swarm data, thanks to the unique constellation aspect of Swarm. To account for the magnetic signature caused by ionospheric electric currents at polar latitudes we co-estimate, together with the model of the core, lithospheric and large-scale magnetospheric fields, a magnetic potential that depends on quasi-dipole latitude and magnetic local time.

  17. Modeling variations of marine reservoir ages during the last 45 000 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Franke

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available When dating marine samples with 14C, the reservoir-age effect is usually assumed to be constant, although atmospheric 14C production rate and ocean circulation changes cause temporal and spatial reservoir-age variations. These lead to dating errors, which can limit the interpretation of cause and effect in paleoclimate data. We used a global ocean circulation model forced by transient atmospheric Δ14C variations to calculate reservoir ages for the last 45 000 years for a present day-like and a last glacial maximum-like ocean circulation. A ~30% reduced Atlantic meridonal overturning circulation leads to increased reservoir ages by up to ~500 years in high latitudes. Temporal variations are proportional to the absolute value of the reservoir age; regions with large reservoir age also show large variation. Temporal variations range between ~300 years in parts of the subtropics and ~1000 years in the Southern Ocean. For tropical regions, which are generally assumed to have nearly stable reservoir ages, the model suggests variations of several hundred years.

  18. Prospective and retrospective evaluation of five-year earthquake forecast models for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strader, Anne; Schneider, Max; Schorlemmer, Danijel

    2017-10-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability was developed to prospectively test earthquake forecasts through reproducible and transparent experiments within a controlled environment. From January 2006 to December 2010, the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) Working Group developed and evaluated thirteen time-invariant prospective earthquake mainshock forecasts. The number, spatial and magnitude components of the forecasts were compared to the observed seismicity distribution using a set of likelihood-based consistency tests. In this RELM experiment update, we assess the long-term forecasting potential of the RELM forecasts. Additionally, we evaluate RELM forecast performance against the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF2) and the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) forecasts, which are used for seismic hazard analysis for California. To test each forecast's long-term stability, we also evaluate each forecast from January 2006 to December 2015, which contains both five-year testing periods, and the 40-year period from January 1967 to December 2006. Multiple RELM forecasts, which passed the N-test during the retrospective (January 2006 to December 2010) period, overestimate the number of events from January 2011 to December 2015, although their forecasted spatial distributions are consistent with observed earthquakes. Both the UCERF2 and NSHMP forecasts pass all consistency tests for the two five-year periods; however, they tend to underestimate the number of observed earthquakes over the 40-year testing period. The smoothed seismicity model Helmstetter-et-al.Mainshock outperforms both United States Geological Survey (USGS) models during the second five-year experiment, and contains higher forecasted seismicity rates than the USGS models at multiple observed earthquake locations.

  19. The giant arc statistics in the three year WMAP cosmological model

    CERN Document Server

    Li, G L; Jing, Y P; Mo, H J; Gao, L; Lin, W P

    2006-01-01

    We use high-resolution $N$-body simulations to investigate the optical depth of giant arcs with length-to-width ratio larger than 7.5 and 10 in the `standard' $\\LCDM$ model with $\\sigma_8=0.9$ and $\\Omega_{\\rm m,0}=0.3$ and a model based on three-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) data. We find that, in dark-matter only simulations, the lensing probability in the three-year WMAP model (with $\\sigma_8=0.74$ and $\\Omega_{\\rm m,0}=0.238)$ decreases by a factor of $\\sim 6$ compared with that in the `standard' $\\LCDM$ model. The effects of baryonic cooling, star formation and feedbacks are uncertain, but we argue that baryons will only increase the the lensing cross-section by a moderate factor, $\\sim 2$. We conclude that the low central value of $\\sigma_8$ and $\\Omega_{\\rm m,0}$ preferred by the WMAP three-year data may be too low to be compatible with observations if conventional assumptions of the background source population are correct.

  20. Designing a model to improve first year student adjustment to university

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasrin Nikfal Azar

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The increase in the number of universities for the last decade in Iran increases the need for higher education institutions to manage their enrollment, more effectively. The purpose of this study is to design a model to improve the first year university student adjustment by examining the effects of academic self-efficacy, academic motivation, satisfaction, high school GPA and demographic variables on student’s adjustment to university. The study selects a sample of 357 students out of 4585 bachelor first year student who were enrolled in different programs. Three questionnaires were used for collection of data for this study, namely academic self-efficacy, academic motivation and student satisfaction with university. Structural equation modeling was employed using AMOS version7.16 to test the adequacy of the hypothesized model. Inclusion of additional relationship in the initial model improved the goodness indices considerably. The results suggest that academic self-efficacy were related positively to adjustment, both directly (B=0.35 and indirectly through student satisfaction (B=0.14 and academic motivation (B=0.9. The results indicate a need to develop programs that effectively promote the self-efficacy of first year student of student to increase college adjustment and consequently retention rate.

  1. Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés, J.-C.; Colmenar, J.-M.; Hidalgo, J.-I.; Sánchez-Sánchez, A.; Santonja, F.-J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

    2016-01-01

    Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30 % of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as the model parameters the ones that best fit data returned by the Differential Evolution algorithm. This technique permits to forecast model trends in the next few years using confidence intervals.

  2. Application for certification 1982 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1982-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing.

  3. Development and validation of a 10-year-old child ligamentous cervical spine finite element model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Liqiang; Li, Guangyao; Mao, Haojie; Marek, Stanley; Yang, King H

    2013-12-01

    Although a number of finite element (FE) adult cervical spine models have been developed to understand the injury mechanisms of the neck in automotive related crash scenarios, there have been fewer efforts to develop a child neck model. In this study, a 10-year-old ligamentous cervical spine FE model was developed for application in the improvement of pediatric safety related to motor vehicle crashes. The model geometry was obtained from medical scans and meshed using a multi-block approach. Appropriate properties based on review of literature in conjunction with scaling were assigned to different parts of the model. Child tensile force-deformation data in three segments, Occipital-C2 (C0-C2), C4-C5 and C6-C7, were used to validate the cervical spine model and predict failure forces and displacements. Design of computer experiments was performed to determine failure properties for intervertebral discs and ligaments needed to set up the FE model. The model-predicted ultimate displacements and forces were within the experimental range. The cervical spine FE model was validated in flexion and extension against the child experimental data in three segments, C0-C2, C4-C5 and C6-C7. Other model predictions were found to be consistent with the experimental responses scaled from adult data. The whole cervical spine model was also validated in tension, flexion and extension against the child experimental data. This study provided methods for developing a child ligamentous cervical spine FE model and to predict soft tissue failures in tension.

  4. A Fast Version of LASG/IAP Climate System Model and Its 1000-year Control Integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; WU Bo; WEN Xinyu; LI Lijuan; WANG Bin

    2008-01-01

    A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geo- physical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (GAMIL), with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic com- ponent LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model (LICOM), land component Common Land Model (CLM), and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR CCSM2), as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model (FGOALS_g). The parameterizatious of physical and dynamical processes of the at- mospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for long- term and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and variability axe evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a "double ITCZ" (Inter

  5. Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

  6. A year 2003 conceptual model for the U.S. telecommunications infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Reinert, Rhonda K.

    2003-12-01

    To model the telecommunications infrastructure and its role and robustness to shocks, we must characterize the business and engineering of telecommunications systems in the year 2003 and beyond. By analogy to environmental systems modeling, we seek to develop a 'conceptual model' for telecommunications. Here, the conceptual model is a list of high-level assumptions consistent with the economic and engineering architectures of telecommunications suppliers and customers, both today and in the near future. We describe the present engineering architectures of the most popular service offerings, and describe the supplier markets in some detail. We also develop a characterization of the customer base for telecommunications services and project its likely response to disruptions in service, base-lining such conjectures against observed behaviors during 9/11.

  7. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling, five-year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1996-08-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The project originated in October 1990 and was scheduled to run for four years. At that time, there was considerable emphasis on developing accurate predictions of the physical carryover of macroscopic particles of partially burnt black liquor and smelt droplets out of the furnace, since this was seen as the main cause of boiler plugging. This placed a major emphasis on gas flow patterns within the furnace and on the mass loss rates and swelling and shrinking rates of burning black liquor drops. As work proceeded on developing the recovery boiler furnace model, it became apparent that some recovery boilers encounter serious plugging problems even when physical carryover was minimal. After the original four-year period was completed, the project was extended to address this issue. The objective of the extended project was to improve the utility of the models by including the black liquor chemistry relevant to air emissions predictions and aerosol formation, and by developing the knowledge base and computational tools to relate furnace model outputs to fouling and plugging of the convective sections of the boilers. The work done to date includes CFD model development and validation, acquisition of information on black liquor combustion fundamentals and development of improved burning models, char bed model development, and model application and simplification.

  8. Multi-year Estimates of Methane Fluxes in Alaska from an Atmospheric Inverse Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. M.; Commane, R.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, C. E.; Michalak, A. M.; Dinardo, S. J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hartery, S.; Karion, A.; Lindaas, J.; Sweeney, C.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    We estimate methane fluxes across Alaska over a multi-year period using observations from a three-year aircraft campaign, the Carbon Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Existing estimates of methane from Alaska and other Arctic regions disagree in both magnitude and distribution, and before the CARVE campaign, atmospheric observations in the region were sparse. We combine these observations with an atmospheric particle trajectory model and a geostatistical inversion to estimate surface fluxes at the model grid scale. We first use this framework to estimate the spatial distribution of methane fluxes across the state. We find the largest fluxes in the south-east and North Slope regions of Alaska. This distribution is consistent with several estimates of wetland extent but contrasts with the distribution in most existing flux models. These flux models concentrate methane in warmer or more southerly regions of Alaska compared to the estimate presented here. This result suggests a discrepancy in how existing bottom-up models translate wetland area into methane fluxes across the state. We next use the inversion framework to explore inter-annual variability in regional-scale methane fluxes for 2012-2014. We examine the extent to which this variability correlates with weather or other environmental conditions. These results indicate the possible sensitivity of wetland fluxes to near-term variability in climate.

  9. A Modified Hybrid III 6-Year-Old Dummy Head Model for Lateral Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Rafukka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid III six-year-old (6YO child dummy head model was developed and validated for frontal impact assessment according to the specifications contained in Code of Federal Regulations, Title 49, Part 572.122, Subpart N by Livermore Software Technology Corporation (LSTC. This work is aimed at improving biofidelity of the head for frontal impact and also extending its application to lateral impact assessment by modifying the head skin viscoelastic properties and validating the head response using the scaled nine-year-old (9YO child cadaver head response recently published in the literature. The modified head model was validated for two drop heights for frontal, right, and left parietal impact locations. Peak resultant acceleration of the modified head model appeared to have good correlation with scaled 9YO child cadaver head response for frontal impact on dropping from 302 mm height and fair correlation with 12.3% difference for 151 mm drop height. Right parietal peak resultant acceleration values correlate well with scaled 9YO head experimental data for 153 mm drop height, while fair correlation with 16.4% difference was noticed for 302 mm drop height. Left parietal, however, shows low biofidelity for the two drop heights as the difference in head acceleration response was within 30%. The modified head model could therefore be used to estimate injuries in vehicle crash for head parietal impact locations which cannot be measured by the current hybrid III dummy head model.

  10. Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Rivera, Michael K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)

    2014-04-01

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  11. Forty years of 90Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, J M; Piault, E; Macouillard, D; Juncos, C

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of (90)Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The (90)Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of (90)Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the (90)Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year(-1) in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined.

  12. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

    More than two year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm...

  13. The SIR model of Zika virus disease outbreak in Brazil at year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aik, Lim Eng; Kiang, Lam Chee; Hong, Tan Wei; Abu, Mohd Syafarudy

    2017-05-01

    This research study demonstrates a numerical model intended for comprehension the spread of the year 2015 Zika virus disease utilizing the standard SIR framework. In modeling virulent disease dynamics, it is important to explore whether the illness spread could accomplish a pandemic level or it could be eradicated. Information from the year 2015 Zika virus disease event is utilized and Brazil where the event began is considered in this research study. A three dimensional nonlinear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically utilizing the Euler's method in MS excel. It is appeared from the research study that, with health intercessions of public, the viable regenerative number can be decreased making it feasible for the event to cease to exist. It is additionally indicated numerically that the pandemic can just cease to exist when there are no new infected people in the populace.

  14. Practical prediction model for the risk of 2-year mortality of individuals in the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Gautam, Shiva; Brown, Robert S

    2016-04-01

    This study proposed to validate a prediction model and risk-stratification tool of 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population suitable for office practice use. A risk indicator (R) derived from data in the literature was based on only 6 variables: to calculate R for an individual, starting with 0, for each year of age above 60, add 0.14; for a male, add 0.9; for diabetes mellitus, add 0.7; for albuminuria > 30 mg/g of creatinine, add 0.7; for stage ≥ 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), add 0.9; for cardiovascular disease (CVD), add 1.4; or for both CKD and CVD, add 1.7. We developed a univariate logistic regression model predicting 2-year individual mortality rates. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set (1999-2004 with deaths through 2006) was used as the target for validation. These 12,515 subjects had a mean age of 48.9 ± 18.1 years, 48% males, 9.5% diabetes, 11.7% albuminuria, 6.8% CVD, 5.4% CKD, and 2.8% both CKD and CVD. Using the risk indicator R alone to predict mortality demonstrated good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.84. Dividing subjects into low-risk (R=0-1.0), low intermediate risk (R > 1.0-3.0), high intermediate risk (R > 3.0-5.0) or high-risk (R > 5.0) categories predicted 2-year mortality rates of 0.52%, 1.44%, 5.19% and 15.24%, respectively, by the prediction model compared with actual mortality rates of 0.29%, 2.48%, 5.13% and 13.40%, respectively. We have validated a model of risk stratification using easily identified clinical characteristics to predict 2-year mortality rates of individuals in the general population. The model demonstrated performance adequate for its potential use for clinical practice and research decisions.

  15. Personality change over 40 years of adulthood: hierarchical linear modeling analyses of two longitudinal samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helson, Ravenna; Jones, Constance; Kwan, Virginia S Y

    2002-09-01

    Normative personality change over 40 years was shown in 2 longitudinal cohorts with hierarchical linear modeling of California Psychological Inventory data obtained at multiple times between ages 21-75. Although themes of change and the paucity of differences attributable to gender and cohort largely supported findings of multiethnic cross-sectional samples, the authors also found much quadratic change and much individual variability. The form of quadratic change supported predictions about the influence of period of life and social climate as factors in change over the adult years: Scores on Dominance and Independence peaked in the middle age of both cohorts, and scores on Responsibility were lowest during peak years of the culture of individualism. The idea that personality change is most pronounced before age 30 and then reaches a plateau received no support.

  16. The climate in China over the past 2000 years in a global Earth System Model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorita, Eduardo; Wagner, Sebastian; Luterbacher, Jürg; Zhang, Huan

    2016-04-01

    The climate in China over the past 2000 years is analysed based on a global simulation with the Earth System Model MPI-ESM-P. This model has been used for the past millennium simulations of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 5. The model includes an atmospheric sub-model (ECHAM6), the ocean and sea-ice submodel MPI-OM. The carbon cycle and vegetation submodels of MPI-ESM-P were switched-off in the version of the Earth System Model. The climate model was forced by reconstructions of past volcanic activity, solar irradiance, greenhouse gases and land-use changes. Over the second millennium, these forcings are the same those used in the past-millennium CMIP5 simulations with the model MPI-ESM-P. For the first millennium, reconstructions of these forcings have been implemented, as described below. The reconstruction of the volcanic forcing is based on the sulphate data set of Sigl et al. (2013) and applying the algorithm of Crowley and Unterman (2012). The sulphate records are scaled to the Crowley and Unterman (2012) reconstruction used within CMIP5 in the second millennium. The solar forcing is based on the reconstruction of Vieira et al. (2011). Long-term changes represent a 0.1% difference between the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715 AD) and present-day values (1950-2000 AD). Land-use changes have been prescribed according to the CMIP5 protocol from 800 onwards and kept constant before this period. This global simulation is currently analysed, thus the presentation will show preliminary results on the past climate variations over China for the Common Era. The spatially averaged annual mean temperature clearly displays the known phases of a relatively warm Roman period, followed by colder conditions during the 'Dark Ages', warmer temperatures again during the Mediaeval Warm Period (MWP; peaking at about 1100 AD). The period from 1300 to 1800 was characterised by below normal temperatures. with an ensuing strong warming trend over approximately the last 200

  17. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    OpenAIRE

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J

    2012-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscien...

  18. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

    2009-03-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  19. A cognitive model of second-year organic chemistry students' conceptualizations of mental molecular rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, Michael W.

    The goal of this research was to answer the question, "What is a plausible explanation (model) of the cognitive structure and processes that facilitate mental molecular rotation?". This work used phenomenographic methodology and techniques of interview and think-aloud protocol. Constructivism was the theoretical framework. At the outset of the research, I designed nine tasks to obtain participant articulations of conceptualizations of mental molecular rotations. Articulations from five second-year organic chemistry students attending a Midwestern research university became the research data. Analysis produced four emerging themes along two axes: visualization representation and modeling cognition. These two axes formed a mental space, which was modeled by structure and processes that facilitated mental molecular rotation. A theoretical cognitive model of mental molecular rotation was based on the work of two researchers: Robbie Case and Richard Lesh. Lesh's "mental model" is composed of cognitive elements and operations, which are distributed over heeded local and global cognitive sub-models whereas Case deals with unheeded central conceptual structures. The models and structures interact to produce new knowledge and facilitate the use of existing knowledge. Two predictions of the theory of mental molecular rotation were elaborated. Students without a set of operations in a central conceptual structure will not be able to mentally rotate molecules. This is true even if a set of components, other than "operation", is constructed. The artifacts of mental molecular rotation can be used to determine the state of construction of the central conceptual structure responsible for mental molecular rotation.

  20. 78 FR 17660 - Draft Guidance for E85 Flexible Fuel Vehicle Weighting Factor for Model Years 2016-2019 Vehicles...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-22

    ... AGENCY Draft Guidance for E85 Flexible Fuel Vehicle Weighting Factor for Model Years 2016-2019 Vehicles... determined by weighting the gasoline and E85 values of the model together using the specified factor (see 40... that EPA provide a weighting factor to use for 2016 and later model year vehicles. EPA has assessed the...

  1. Anticorrelated observed and modeled trends in dissolved oceanic oxygen over the last 50 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Stramma

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Observations and model runs indicate trends in dissolved oxygen (DO associated with current and ongoing global warming. However, a large-scale observation-to-model comparison has been missing and is presented here. This study presents a first global compilation of DO measurements covering the last 50 years. It shows declining upper-ocean DO levels in many regions, especially the tropical oceans, whereas areas with increasing trends are found in the subtropics and in some subpolar regions. For the Atlantic Ocean south of 20° N, the DO history could even be extended back to about 70 years, showing decreasing DO in the subtropical South Atlantic. The global mean DO trend between 50° S and 50° N at 300 dbar for the period 1960 to 2010 is −0.063 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Results of a numerical biogeochemical Earth system model reveal that the magnitude of the observed change is consistent with CO2-induced climate change. However, the correlation between simulated and observed patterns of past DO change is negative, indicating that the model does not correctly reproduce the processes responsible for observed regional oxygen changes in the past 50 years. A negative pattern correlation is also obtained for model configurations with particularly low and particularly high diapycnal mixing, for a configuration that assumes a CO2-induced enhancement of the C:N ratios of exported organic matter and irrespective of whether climatological or realistic winds from reanalysis products are used to force the model. Depending on the model configuration the 300 dbar DO trend between 50° S and 50° N is −0.026 to −0.046 μmol kg−1 yr−1. Although numerical models reproduce the overall sign and, to some extent, magnitude of observed ocean deoxygenation, this degree of realism does not necessarily apply to simulated regional patterns and the representation of processes involved in their generation

  2. A description of persistent climatic anomalies in a 1000-year climatic model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, B. G.

    The Mark 2 version of the CSIRO coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 1000-year simulation of natural (i.e. unforced) climatic variability representative of ``present conditions''. The annual mean output from the simulation has been used to investigate the occurrence of decadal and longer trends over the globe for a number of climatic variables. Here trends are defined to be periods of years with a climatic anomaly of a given sign. The analysis reveals substantial differences between the trend characteristics of the various climatic variables. Trends longer than 12years duration were unusual for rainfall. Such trends were fairly uniformly distributed over the globe and had an asymmetry in the rate of occurrence for wet or dry conditions. On the other hand, trends in surface wind stress, and especially the atmospheric screen temperature, were of longer duration but primarily confined to oceanic regions. The trends in the atmospheric screen temperature could be traced deep into the oceanic mixed layer, implying large changes in oceanic thermal inertia. This thermal inertia then constituted an important component of the `memory' of the climatic system. While the geographic region associated with a given trend could be identified over several adjacent grid boxes of the model, regional plots for individual years of the trend revealed a range of variations, suggesting that a consistent forcing mechanism may not be responsible for a trend at a given location. Typical return periods for 12-year rainfall trends were once in 1000years, highlighting the rarity of such events. Using a looser definition of a trend revealed that drying trends up to 50 years duration were also possible, attributable solely to natural climatic variability. Significant ( 20% to 40%) rainfall reductions per year can be associated with a long-term drying trend, hence such events are of considerable climatic significance. It can take more than 100years for the hydrologic losses

  3. Disability multilevel modelling in first episodes of psychosis at 3-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor-Marsá, Blanca; Caballero, Francisco Félix; Cabello, María; Ayuso-Mateos, José Luis; Setién-Suero, Esther; Vázquez-Bourgon, Javier; Crespo-Facorro, Benedicto; Ayesa-Arriola, Rosa

    2017-07-01

    The description of longitudinal bio-psycho-social profiles in FEP samples may be useful for the prediction of disability trajectories. This study aimed to describe the differences between disability status of FEP patients at baseline and their change over time, analysing how variables associated to the psychological status, and the environment of the patient can affect his or her disability trajectory, once the influence of health condition and socio-demographic variables has been controlled for. Using data from a 3-year follow-up study on early psychosis (PAFIP), a multilevel structure in which the longitudinal measurements (within level) were nested within the individuals (between level), was modeled. The contribution of the different time-varying and time-invariant variables to the patients' disability outcomes was tested through eight nested models. Consecutive models, that successively added health related, socio-demographic, psychological and environmental variables to the unconditional model were estimated, by means of deviance and fit statistics. The present work revealed the importance of psychological and environmental factors in the explanation of disability changes in the context of FEP. We may conclude that longitudinal assessments of time-varying predictors - living situation (b=-0.10, pdisability variation over time, independently from symptoms' severity, duration of untreated psychosis, age, gender and years of education. Additionally, the level of premorbid adjustment (b=0.05, pdisability outcomes among FEP patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Development model for energy crop plantations in the Czech Republic for the years 2008-2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Havlickova, Kamila; Suchy, Jiri [Department of Phytoenergy, Silva Tarouca Research Institute for Landscape and Ornamental Gardening, Publ. Res. Inst., Kvetnove nam. 391, 252 43 Pruhonice (Czech Republic)

    2010-09-15

    This paper deals with modelling the development of plantations for intentional biomass production. The model of plots for the areas of interest consider the following biomass sources: intentionally produced biomass from SRC of fast-growing trees and non-woody energy crops (sorrel, reed grass and triticale). Statistical data for the entire area of interest (NUTS1 size) and data for a part of this area (NUTS3 size - 18% of total area of interest) were used to determine data on the area of arable land and permanent grasslands in the initial year. This paper presents a model of the development of production plots for the period 2008-2030. Yields are calculated of selected energy crops with regard to their growing cycle using so-called triangular method. The core of the algorithm for calculation of growing area of energy crop is an optimalization of processes regarding economic and technical demands for long-term and sustainable production of biomass. (author)

  5. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Shanthi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131 were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5% patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4% achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context

  6. The Type IIb SN 2011dh - 2 years of observations and modelling of the lightcurves

    CERN Document Server

    Ergon, M; Sollerman, J; Elias-Rosa, N; Fransson, C; Fraser, M; Pastorello, A; Kotak, R; Taubenberger, S; Tomasella, L; Valenti, S; Benetti, S; Helou, G; Kasliwal, M M; Maund, J; Smartt, S J; Spyromilio, J

    2014-01-01

    We present optical and near-infrared (NIR) photometry and spectroscopy as well as modelling of the lightcurves of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh. Our extensive dataset spans 2 years, and complemented with Spitzer mid-infrared (MIR) data, we use it to build a 3-732 days optical to MIR bolometric lightcurve. To model the <400 days bolometric lightcurve we use a hydrodynamical model grid and a bolometric correction determined with steady-state NLTE modelling. We obtain similar results using the <100 days and <400 days bolometric lightcurves, and using the latter we find a helium core mass of 3.1 (+0.7-0.4) solar masses for SN 2011dh. We present 100-500 days bolometric and photometric lightcurves for the Jerkstrand et al. (2014) steady-state NLTE models, and the preferred 12 solar masses (initial mass) model shows a good overall agreement with the observed lightcurves. We find an excess in the K and the MIR bands developing between 100 and 250 days, during which an increase in the optical decline rat...

  7. Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Paulo Batistella Pasini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

  8. Modeling the Office of Science ten year facilities plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Supinski, Bronis R.; Alam, Sadaf; Bailey, David H.; Carrington, Laura; Daley, Chris; Dubey, Anshu; Gamblin, Todd; Gunter, Dan; Hovland, Paul D.; Jagode, Heike; Karavanic, Karen; Marin, Gabriel; Mellor-Crummey, John; Moore, Shirley; Norris, Boyana; Oliker, Leonid; Olschanowsky, Catherine; Roth, Philip C.; Schulz, Martin; Shende, Sameer; Snavely, Allan; Spear, Wyatt; Tikir, Mustafa; Vetter, Jeff; Worley, Pat; Wright, Nicholas

    2009-07-01

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  9. Modeling the Office of Science Ten Year Facilities Plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Supinski, Bronis R.; Alam, Sadaf; Bailey, David H.; Carrington, Laura; Daley, Chris; Dubey, Anshu; Gamblin, Todd; Gunter, Dan; Hovland, Paul D.; Jagode, Heike; Karavanic, Karen; Marin, Gabriel; Mellor-Crummey, John; Moore, Shirley; Norris, Boyana; Oliker, Leonid; Olschanowsky, Catherine; Roth, Philip C.; Schulz, Martin; Shende, Sameer; Snavely, Allan; Spear, Wyatt; Tikir, Mustafa; Vetter, Jeff; Worley, Pat; Wright, Nicholas

    2009-06-26

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  10. Modeling the Office of Science Ten Year Facilities Plan: The PERI Architecture Team

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Supinski, Bronis R. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Alam, Sadaf R [ORNL; Bailey, David [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL); Carrington, Laura [University of California, San Diego; Daley, Christopher [University of Chicago; Dubey, Anshu [University of Chicago; Gamblin, Todd [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Gunter, Dan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL); Hovland, Paul [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Jagode, Heike [ORNL; Karavanic, Karen [Portland State University; Marin, Gabriel [ORNL; Mellor-Crummey, John [Rice University; Moore, Shirley [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Norris, Boyana [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL); Oliker, Leonid [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL); Olschanowsky, Cathy [San Diego Supercomputer Center; Roth, Philip C [ORNL; Schulz, Martin [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL); Shende, Sameer [University of Oregon; Snavely, Allan [University of California, San Diego; Spea, Wyatt [University of Oregon; Tikir, Mustafa [San Diego Supercomputer Center; Vetter, Jeffrey S [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Wright, Nicholas [San Diego Supercomputer Center

    2009-01-01

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfilll our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  11. Crash-Related Mortality and Model Year: Are Newer Vehicles Safer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; McGwin, Gerald; Griffin, Russell L

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to determine whether occupants of newer vehicles experience a lower risk of crash-related mortality. Methods: The occurrence of death was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age ≥ 16 captured in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between 2000 and 2008. The associations between death and other occupant, vehicular and crash characteristics were also explored. Multiple logistic regression models for the prediction of death were built with model year as the independent variable and other characteristics linked to death as covariates. Imputation was used for missing data; weighted data was used. Results: A total of 70,314 cases representing 30,514,372 weighted cases were available for analysis. Death occurred in 0.6% of the weighted population. Death was linked to age>60, male gender, higher BMI, near lateral direction of impact, high delta v, rollover, ejection and vehicle mismatch, and negatively associated with seatbelt use and rear and far lateral direction of impact. Mortality decreased with later model year groups (MY<94 0.78%, MY 94–97 0.53%, MY 98-04 0.51% and MY 05–08 0.38%, p=<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, MY 94–97, MY 98-04 and MY 05–08 showed decreased odds of death [OR 0.80 (0.69–0.94), 0.82 (0.70–0.97), and 0.67 (0.47–0.96), respectively] when compared to MY <94. Conclusion: Newer vehicles are associated with lower crash-related mortality. Their introduction into the vehicle fleet may explain, at least in part, the decrease in mortality rates in the past two decades. PMID:22105389

  12. Finding the 'lost years' in green turtles: insights from ocean circulation models and genetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, Nathan F; Naro-Maciel, Eugenia

    2013-10-07

    Organismal movement is an essential component of ecological processes and connectivity among ecosystems. However, estimating connectivity and identifying corridors of movement are challenging in oceanic organisms such as young turtles that disperse into the open sea and remain largely unobserved during a period known as 'the lost years'. Using predictions of transport within an ocean circulation model and data from published genetic analysis, we present to our knowledge, the first basin-scale hypothesis of distribution and connectivity among major rookeries and foraging grounds (FGs) of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) during their 'lost years'. Simulations indicate that transatlantic dispersal is likely to be common and that recurrent connectivity between the southwestern Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic is possible. The predicted distribution of pelagic juvenile turtles suggests that many 'lost years hotspots' are presently unstudied and located outside protected areas. These models, therefore, provide new information on possible dispersal pathways that link nesting beaches with FGs. These pathways may be of exceptional conservation concern owing to their importance for sea turtles during a critical developmental period.

  13. Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Emergency events can influence a child’s kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs–MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models–were evaluated and compared with child volunteers’ data during emergency events–braking and steering–with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control. PMID:28099505

  14. Single Field Inflation models allowed and ruled out by the three years WMAP data

    CERN Document Server

    De Vega, H J

    2006-01-01

    We study the single field slow-roll inflation models that better fit the available CMB and LSS data including the three years WMAP data: new inflation and hybrid inflation. We study them as effective field theories in the Ginsburg-Landau context: a trinomial potential turns out to be a simple and well motivated model. The compute the spectral index n_s of the adiabatic fluctuations, the ratio r of tensor to scalar fluctuations and the running index d n_s/dln k, derive explicit formulae and provide relevant plots. In new inflation, and for the three years WMAP central value n_s = 0.95, we predict 0.031. Hybrid inflation for mu_0^2>Lambda_0 M_{Pl}^2/192 can fullfill all the present CMB+LSS data. Even if chaotic inflation predicts n_s values compatible with the data, chaotic inflation is disfavoured since it predicts a too high value for the ratio r=0.27. The model which best fits the current data and which best prepares the way to the expected data r < 0.1, is the trinomial potential with negative mass term:...

  15. Housing Abandonment and Demolition: Exploring the Use of Micro-Level and Multi-Year Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Yin

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Policies focusing on enforcing property code violations and the improvement of vacant properties are argued to be more efficacious than demolition policies to fight urban blight. This study applies parcel level data to a multi-year hybrid modeling structure. A fine-grained analysis is conducted on the dynamic patterns of abandonment and demolition for a unique period of four years before and after the City of Buffalo’s stepped-up demolition efforts. Results showed that proximity to vacant and abandoned properties, sustained over the years, had the greatest impact on the possibility of a property being abandoned. The second greatest positive impact on property abandonment was small lot front size. Results also showed that neighborhood vacancy density had the greatest negative impact on surrounding housing sales prices over the years. There was no significant impact of demolition on housing sales prices. These findings suggested that the City should aim to have more incentive programs that are tailored to control the number of vacant properties, rather than focusing primarily on demolition-oriented programs.

  16. Inflation model constraints from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe three-year data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, William H.; /SUNY, Buffalo; Kolb, Edward W.; /Fermilab /Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; /Rome U. /INFN, Rome; Riotto, Antonio; /CERN

    2006-05-01

    We extract parameters relevant for distinguishing among single-field inflation models from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) three-year data set, and also from WMAP in combination with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxy power spectrum. Our analysis leads to the following conclusions: (1) the Harrison-Zel'dovich model is consistent with both data sets at a 95% confidence level; (2) there is no strong evidence for running of the spectral index of scalar perturbations; (3) Potentials of the form V {infinity} {phi}{sup P} are consistent with the data for p = 2, and are marginally consistent with the WMAP data considered alone for p = 4, but ruled out by WMAP combined with SDSS. We perform a ''Monte Carlo reconstruction'' of the inflationary potential, and find that: (1) there is no evidence to support an observational lower bound on the amplitude of gravitational waves produced during inflation; (2) models such as simple hybrid potentials which evolve toward an inflationary late-time attractor in the space of flow parameters are strongly disfavored by the data, (3) models selected with even a weak slow-roll prior strongly cluster in the region favoring a ''red'' power spectrum and no running of the spectral index, consistent with simple single-field inflation models.

  17. Modelling 20 years of synchrotron flaring in the jet of 3C 273

    CERN Document Server

    Türler, M; Paltani, S

    2000-01-01

    We present a phenomenological jet model which is able to reproduce well the observed variations of the submillimetre-to-radio emission of the bright quasar 3C 273 during the last 20 years. It is a generalization of the original shock model of Marscher & Gear (1985), which is now able to describe an accelerating or decelerating shock wave, in a curved, non-conical and non-adiabatic jet. The model defines the properties of a synchrotron outburst which is expected to be emitted by the jet material in a small region just behind the shock front. By a proper parameterization of the average outburst's evolution and of the peculiarities of individual outbursts, we are able to decompose simultaneously thirteen long-term light-curves of 3C 273 in a series of seventeen distinct outbursts. It is the first time that a model is so closely confronted to the long-term multi-wavelength variability properties of a quasar. The ability of the model to reproduce the very different shapes of the submillimetre-to-radio light cu...

  18. Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2017-09-01

    The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

  19. Application for certification for 1978 model year heavy-duty vehicles - General Motors corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-03-01

    Every year each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. The application consists of two parts. In the part I, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. The part I also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. The part II application, submitted after emission testing is completed, contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, and maintenance instructions to be followed by the ultimate owners of the vehicles.

  20. Application for certification 1986 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  1. Application for certification, 1986 model year heavy-duty vehicles - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  2. Application for certification for 1979 model year for heavy-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-11-21

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. The application consists of two parts. In the part I, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems an exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. The part I also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. The part II application submitted after emission testing is completed, contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, and maintenance instructions to be followed by the ultimate owners of the vehicles.

  3. Application for certification, 1989 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1989-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  4. Application for certification 1981 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  5. Application for certification 1983 model year heavy-duty engines - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1983-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  6. Application for certification, 1991 model-year light-duty vehicles - General motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model-year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  7. Application for certification, 1990 model-year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  8. Application for certification 1981 model year heavy duty gasoline vehicles - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  9. Application for certification, 1986 model year heavy-duty vehicles/engines - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1986-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  10. Application for certification for 1979 model year for light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-11-21

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. The application consists of two parts. In the part I, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. The part I also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. The part II application submitted after emission testing is completed, contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, and maintenance instructions to be followed by the ultimate owners of the vehicles.

  11. Application for certification model year 1981 light-duty vehicles - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  12. Application for certification 1981 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  13. Application for certification, 1992 model-year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines that he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  14. Application for certification, 1988 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission-control systems. Information is also provided on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  15. Application for certification for 1978 model year heavy-duty vehicles - General Motors Corporation, supplement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1978-03-01

    Every year each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles or heavy-engines submits to EPA an application for certification. The application consists of two parts. In the part I, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. The part I also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. The part II application, submitted after emission testing is completed, contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, and maintenance instructions to be followed by the ultimate owners of the vehicles.

  16. Application for certification 1980 model year heavy-duty engines - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  17. Application for certification 1984 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  18. Application for certification 1980 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems, and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  19. Application for certification 1987 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. The engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. They also provide information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  20. Application for certification 1987 model year heavy-duty vehicles/engines - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1987-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. They also provide information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  1. Application for certification for 1979 model year for heavy-duty engines - General Motors Co

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-03-30

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. The application consists of two parts. In the part I, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. The part I also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. The part II application, submitted after emission testing is completed, contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, and maintenance instructions to be followed by the ultimate owners of the vehicles.

  2. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Chrysler

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  3. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Honda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  4. Application for certification 1993 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - Cummins Engine Company

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Each year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement or compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  5. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Nissan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  6. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Rover Group

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  7. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Ford

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  8. Application for certification 1993 model year heavy-duty trucks - Ford

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Each year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement or compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  9. Application for certification 1994 model year light-duty vehicles - Ferrari

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  10. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Fiat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  11. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Porsche

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  12. Application for certification 1993 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - Isuzu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Each year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement or compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  13. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - BMW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  14. Application for certification 1994 model year light-duty vehicles - Porsche

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1994-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  15. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty trucks - Isuzu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  16. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Volvo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  17. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Nummi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  18. Toyota's early 2000 model year application for certification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1998-10-22

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  19. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Mercedes Benz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  20. Application for certification 1993 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - Hino Motors Inc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Each year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement or compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  1. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Rolls Royce

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  2. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Mitsubishi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  3. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty trucks - Mitsubishi

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  4. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Vector Aeromotive

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  5. Application for certification 1993 model year heavy-duty diesel engines - Mitsubishi Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Each year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement or compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  6. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - General Motors Corporation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  7. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Liphardt and Associates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  8. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Jaguar cars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  9. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty trucks - Nissan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  10. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Volkswagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  11. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty trucks - Mazda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  12. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty trucks - Chrysler

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  13. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Harley Davidson

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  14. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Kia motors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  15. Application for certification 1993 model year light-duty vehicles - Jaguar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-01-01

    Every year, each manufacturer of passenger cars, light-duty trucks, motorcycles, or heavy-duty engines submits to EPA an application for certification. In the application, the manufacturer gives a detailed technical description of the vehicles or engines he intends to market during the upcoming model year. These engineering data include explanations and/or drawings which describe engine/vehicle parameters such as basic engine design, fuel systems, ignition systems and exhaust and evaporative emission control systems. It also provides information on emission test procedures, service accumulation procedures, fuels to be used, and proposed maintenance requirements to be followed during testing. Section 16 of the application contains the results of emission testing, a statement of compliance to the regulations, production engine parameters, and a Summary Sheet Input Form on which issuance of a Certificate of Conformity is based.

  16. On the Cutting Edge Professional Development Program - An effective model built from years of experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckner, M. Z.; Macdonald, H.; Beane, R. J.; Manduca, C. A.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Mogk, D. W.; Tewksbury, B. J.; Wiese, K.; Wysession, M. E.; Iverson, E. A. R.; Fox, S.

    2015-12-01

    The On the Cutting Edge (CE) program offers a successful model for designing and convening professional development events. Information about the model is now available on the CE website. The program model has evolved from more than 12 years of experience, building with input from strong leaders and participants. CE offers face-to-face, virtual, and hybrid events, and features a rich website that supports these professional development events as well as a growing community with a shared interest in effective geoscience teaching. Data from national surveys, participant feedback, and self-report data indicate the program's success in improving undergraduate geoscience education. Successes are also demonstrated in classroom observations using RTOP, indicating a significant difference in teaching style among participants and non-participants. A suite of web pages, with a planning timeline, provides guidance to those interested in designing and convening face-to-face or virtual events based on the CE model. The pages suggest ways to develop robust event goals and evaluation tools, how to choose strong leaders and recruit diverse participants, advice for designing effective event programs that utilize participant expertise, websites, and web tools, and suggestions for effectively disseminating event results and producing useful products. The CE model has been successfully transferred to projects that vary in scale and discipline. Best practices from the CE model include (1) thinking of the workshop as shared enterprise among conveners and participants; (2) incorporating conveners and participants who bring diverse viewpoints and approaches; (3) promoting structured discussions that utilize participants' expertise; (4) emphasizing practical strategies to effect change; and (5) using the website as a platform to prepare for the workshop, share ideas, and problem-solve challenges. Learn more about how to utilize this model for your project at:serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/workshops/convene

  17. Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson at LEP in the year 2000

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, P.; Adye, T.; Adzic, P.; Albrecht, Z.; Alderweireld, T.; Alekseev, G.D.; Alemany, R.; Allmendinger, T.; Allport, P.P.; Almehed, S.; Amaldi, U.; Amapane, N.; Amato, S.; Anashkin, E.; Anassontzis, E.G.; Andersson, P.; Andreazza, A.; Andringa, S.; Anjos, N.; Antilogus, P.; Apel, W.D.; Arnoud, Y.; Asman, B.; Augustin, J.E.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Ballestrero, A.; Bambade, P.; Barao, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Barbier, R.; Bardin, Dmitri Yu.; Barker, G.J.; Baroncelli, A.; Battaglia, M.; Baubillier, M.; Becks, K.H.; Begalli, M.; Behrmann, A.; Belokopytov, Yu.; Belous, K.; Benekos, N.C.; Benvenuti, A.C.; Berat, C.; Berggren, M.; Berntzon, L.; Bertrand, D.; Besancon, M.; Besson, N.; Bilenky, Mikhail S.; Bloch, D.; Blom, H.M.; Bol, L.; Bonesini, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Booth, P.S.L.; Borisov, G.; Bosio, C.; Botner, O.; Boudinov, E.; Bouquet, B.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Boyko, I.; Bozovic, I.; Bozzo, M.; Bracko, M.; Branchini, P.; Brenner, R.A.; Bruckman, P.; Brunet, J.M.; Bugge, L.; Buschmann, P.; Caccia, M.; Calvi, M.; Camporesi, T.; Canale, V.; Carena, F.; Carroll, L.; Caso, C.; Castillo Gimenez, M.V.; Cattai, A.; Cavallo, F.R.; Chapkin, M.; Charpentier, P.; Checchia, P.; Chelkov, G.A.; Chierici, R.; Chliapnikov, P.; Chochula, P.; Chorowicz, V.; Chudoba, J.; Cieslik, K.; Collins, P.; Contri, R.; Cortina, E.; Cosme, G.; Cossutti, F.; Costa, M.; Crawley, H.B.; Crennell, D.; Croix, J.; Crosetti, G.; Cuevas Maestro, J.; Czellar, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Dalmau, J.; Davenport, M.; Da Silva, W.; Della Ricca, G.; Delpierre, P.; Demaria, N.; De Angelis, A.; De Boer, W.; De Clercq, C.; De Lotto, B.; De Min, A.; De Paula, L.; Dijkstra, H.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Doroba, K.; Dracos, M.; Drees, J.; Dris, M.; Eigen, G.; Ekelof, T.; Ellert, M.; Elsing, M.; Engel, J.P.; Espirito Santo, M.C.; Fanourakis, G.; Fassouliotis, D.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrer-Ribas, E.; Ferro, F.; Firestone, A.; Flagmeyer, U.; Foeth, H.; Fokitis, E.; Franek, B.; Frodesen, A.G.; Fruhwirth, R.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Fuster, J.; Gamba, D.; Gamblin, S.; Gandelman, M.; Garcia, C.; Gaspar, C.; Gaspar, M.; Gasparini, U.; Gavillet, P.; Gazis, Evangelos; Gele, D.; Geralis, T.; Ghodbane, N.; Gil Botella, Ines; Glege, F.; Gokieli, R.; Golob, B.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncalves, P.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Gopal, G.; Gorn, L.; Gouz, Yu.; Gracco, V.; Grahl, J.; Graziani, E.; Grosdidier, G.; Grzelak, K.; Guy, J.; Haag, C.; Hahn, F.; Hahn, S.; Haider, S.; Hallgren, A.; Hamacher, K.; Hansen, J.; Harris, F.J.; Haug, S.; Hauler, F.; Hedberg, V.; Heising, S.; Hernandez, J.J.; Herquet, P.; Herr, H.; Hertz, O.; Higon, E.; Holmgren, S.O.; Holt, P.J.; Hoorelbeke, S.; Houlden, M.; Hrubec, J.; Hughes, G.J.; Hultqvist, K.; Jackson, John Neil; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, P.; Jarlskog, C.; Jarlskog, G.; Jarry, P.; Jean-Marie, B.; Jeans, D.; Johansson, Erik Karl; Jonsson, P.; Joram, C.; Juillot, P.; Jungermann, L.; Kapusta, Frederic; Karafasoulis, K.; Katsanevas, S.; Katsoufis, E.C.; Keranen, R.; Kernel, G.; Kersevan, B.P.; Khomenko, B.A.; Khovanski, N.N.; Kiiskinen, A.; King, B.; Kinvig, A.; Kjaer, N.J.; Klapp, O.; Kluit, P.; Kokkinias, P.; Kostioukhine, V.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krammer, M.; Kriznic, E.; Krumstein, Z.; Kubinec, P.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kurowska, J.; Lamsa, J.W.; Laugier, J.P.; Leder, G.; Ledroit, Fabienne; Leinonen, L.; Leisos, A.; Leitner, R.; Lenzen, G.; Lepeltier, V.; Lesiak, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Libby, J.; Liebig, W.; Liko, D.; Lipniacka, A.; Lippi, I.; Loken, J.G.; Lopes, J.H.; Lopez, J.M.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Loukas, D.; Lutz, P.; Lyons, L.; MacNaughton, J.; Mahon, J.R.; Maio, A.; Malek, A.; Maltezos, S.; Malychev, V.; Mandl, F.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Marechal, B.; Margoni, M.; Marin, J.C.; Mariotti, C.; Markou, A.; Martinez-Rivero, C.; Marti i Garcia, S.; Masik, J.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Matorras, F.; Matteuzzi, C.; Matthiae, G.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; McCubbin, M.; McKay, R.; McNulty, R.; Merle, E.; Meroni, C.; Meyer, W.T.; Miagkov, A.; Migliore, E.; Mirabito, L.; Mitaroff, W.A.; Mjoernmark, U.; Moa, T.; Moch, M.; Monig, Klaus; Monge, M.R.; Montenegro, J.; Moraes, D.; Morettini, P.; Morton, G.; Muller, U.; Muenich, K.; Mulders, M.; Mundim, L.M.; Murray, W.J.; Muryn, B.; Myatt, G.; Myklebust, T.; Nassiakou, M.; Navarria, F.L.; Nawrocki, K.; Negri, P.; Nemecek, S.; Neufeld, N.; Nicolaidou, R.; Niezurawski, P.; Nikolenko, M.; Nomokonov, V.; Nygren, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Olshevski, A.G.; Onofre, A.; Orava, R.; Osterberg, K.; Ouraou, A.; Oyanguren, A.; Paganoni, M.; Paiano, S.; Pain, R.; Paiva, R.; Palacios, J.; Palka, H.; Papadopoulou, T.D.; Pape, L.; Parkes, C.; Parodi, F.; Parzefall, U.; Passeri, A.; Passon, O.; Peralta, L.; Perepelitsa, V.; Pernicka, M.; Perrotta, A.; Petridou, C.; Petrolini, A.; Phillips, H.T.; Pierre, F.; Pimenta, M.; Piotto, E.; Podobnik, T.; Poireau, V.; Pol, M.E.; Polok, G.; Poropat, P.; Pozdniakov, V.; Privitera, P.; Pukhaeva, N.; Pullia, A.; Radojicic, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Rahmani, H.; Read, Alexander L.; Rebecchi, P.; Redaelli, Nicola Giuseppe; Regler, M.; Rehn, J.; Reid, D.; Reinhardt, R.; Renton, P.B.; Resvanis, L.K.; Richard, F.; Ridky, J.; Rinaudo, G.; Ripp-Baudot, Isabelle; Romero, A.; Ronchese, P.; Rosenberg, E.I.; Rosinsky, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rovelli, T.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Ruiz, A.; Saarikko, H.; Sacquin, Y.; Sadovsky, A.; Sajot, G.; Salmi, L.; Salt, J.; Sampsonidis, D.; Sannino, M.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schwanda, C.; Schwemling, P.; Schwering, B.; Schwickerath, U.; Scuri, Fabrizio; Sedykh, Y.; Segar, A.M.; Sekulin, R.; Sette, G.; Shellard, R.C.; Siebel, M.; Simard, L.; Simonetto, F.; Sisakian, A.N.; Smadja, G.; Smirnov, N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, G.R.; Sokolov, A.; Sopczak, A.; Sosnowski, R.; Spassov, T.; Spiriti, E.; Squarcia, S.; Stanescu, C.; Stanitzki, M.; Stevenson, K.; Stocchi, A.; Strauss, J.; Strub, R.; Stugu, B.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Tabarelli, T.; Taffard, A.; Chikilev, O.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Terranova, F.; Timmermans, Jan; Tinti, N.; Tkatchev, L.G.; Tobin, M.; Todorova, S.; Tome, B.; Tonazzo, A.; Tortora, L.; Tortosa, P.; Treille, D.; Tristram, G.; Trochimczuk, M.; Troncon, C.; Turluer, M.L.; Tyapkin, I.A.; Tyapkin, P.; Tzamarias, S.; Ullaland, O.; Uvarov, V.; Valenti, G.; Vallazza, E.; Vander Velde, C.; Van Dam, Piet; Van den Boeck, W.; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Eldik, J.; Van Lysebetten, A.; van Remortel, N.; Van Vulpen, I.; Vegni, G.; Ventura, L.; Venus, W.; Verbeure, F.; Verdier, P.; Verlato, M.; Vertogradov, L.S.; Verzi, V.; Vilanova, D.; Vitale, L.; Vlasov, E.; Vodopianov, A.S.; Voulgaris, G.; Vrba, V.; Wahlen, H.; Washbrook, A.J.; Weiser, C.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, J.H.; Wilkinson, G.R.; Winter, M.; Witek, M.; Wolf, G.; Yi, J.; Yushchenko, O.; Zalewska, A.; Zalewski, P.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zevgolatakos, E.; Zimine, N.I.; Zintchenko, A.; Zoller, P.; Zumerle, G.; Zupan, M.

    2001-01-01

    Searches for the Standard Model Higgs boson have been performed in the data collected by the DELPHI experiment at LEP in the year 2000 at centre-of-mass energies between 200 and 209~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}} $} corresponding to a total integrated \\mbox{luminosity} of 224~\\mbox{pb$^{-1}$}. No evidence for a Higgs signal is observed in the kinematically accessible mass range, and a 95\\% CL lower mass limit of 114.3~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}}/c ^2 $} is set, to be compared with an expected median limit of 113.5~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}}/c^2 $} for these data.

  18. Fear extinction as a model for translational neuroscience: ten years of progress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milad, Mohammed R; Quirk, Gregory J

    2012-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by a high degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. Research in fear extinction could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience.

  19. Thirty Years with EoS/GE Models - What Have We Learned?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.; Coutsikos, Philippos

    2012-01-01

    Thirty years of research and the use of EoS/GE mixing rules in cubic equations of state are reviewed. The most popular approaches are presented both from the derivation and application points of view and they are compared to each other. It is shown that all methods have significant capabilities...... but also limitations which are discussed. A useful approach is presented for analyzing the models by looking at the activity coefficient expression derived from the equations of state using various mixing rules. The size-asymmetric systems are investigated in detail, and an explanation is provided on how...

  20. Reduced Protection for Belted Occupants in Rear Seats Relative to Front Seats of New Model Year Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahraei, Elham; Digges, Kennerly; Marzougui, Dhafer

    2010-01-01

    Effectiveness of the rear seat in protecting occupants of different age groups in frontal crashes for 2000–2009 model years (MY) of vehicles was estimated and compared to 1990–1999 model years of vehicles. The objective was to determine the effectiveness of the rear seat compared to the front seat for various age groups in newer model year vehicles. The double paired comparison method was used to estimate relative effectiveness. For belted adults of the 25–49 age group, the fatality reduction effectiveness of the rear seat compared to the right front seat was 25 % (CI 11% to 36%), in the 1990–1999 model year vehicles. The relative effectiveness was −31% (CI −63% to −5%) for the same population, in the 2000–2009 model year vehicles. For restrained children 0–8 years old, the relative effectiveness was 55% (CI 48% to 61%) when the vehicles were of the 1990–1999 period. The level of effectiveness for this age group was reduced to 25% (CI −4% to 46%) in the 2000–2009 MYs of vehicles. Results for other age groups of belted occupants have followed a similar trend. All belted adult occupants of 25+ years old were significantly less protected in rear seats as compared to right front seats in the 2000–2009 model years of vehicles. For unbelted occupants however, rear seats were still a safer position than front seats, even in the 2000–2009 model years of vehicles. PMID:21050599

  1. Modelling scenarios of land use change in northern China in the next 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HEChunyang; LIJinggang; SHIPeijun; CHENJin; PANYaozhong; LIXiaobing

    2005-01-01

    Modelling scenarios of land use change and their impacts in typical regions are helpful to investigate the mechanism between land use and ecological systems and process the land use allocation under the ecological security. A system dynamics (SD) model with the aim to modelling scenarios of land use change and assessing ecological impact in northern China in the next 50 years is developed here. The accuracy assessment with the historic data from 1990 to 2001 indicated the SD model is robust. After the different """"what-if' scenarios controlled by GDP, population, market, and technology advancement were built, the different scenarios of land use change in northern China from 2000 to 2050 were simulated with their ecological impact assessed. The result suggested that such factors as GDP, population, market and technology have a strong relationship with land use structural change innorthern China. It also indicated that such measures as strict controlling of population increase,importing some food to keep the supply-demand balance in the region, and improving agricultural technology will be the guarantee of regional sustainable development with fast economic growth and the obvious land use structural improvement at the same time.

  2. Solar irradiance variability: A six-year comparison between SORCE observations and the SATIRE model

    CERN Document Server

    Ball, Will T; Krivova, Natalie A; Solanki, Sami; Harder, Jerald W

    2011-01-01

    Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model and compare modeled total solar irradiance (TSI) with TSI measurements between 2003 and 2009. Spectral solar irradiance over 200-1630nm is compared with the SIM instrument on SORCE between 2004 and 2009 during a period of decline from moderate activity to the recent solar minimum in 10 nm bands and for three spectral regions of significant interest: the UV integrated over 200-300nm, the visible over 400-691nm and the IR between 972-1630 nm. Results: The model captures 97% of observed TSI variation. In the spectral comparison, rotational variability is well reproduced, especially between 400 and 1200 nm. The magnitude of change in the long-term trends is many times larger in SIM at almost all wavelengths while trends in SIM oppose SATIRE in the visible between 500 and 700nm...

  3. Constraining the last 7 billion years of galaxy evolution in semi-analytic models

    CERN Document Server

    Mutch, Simon J; Croton, Darren J

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the ability of the Croton et al. (2006) semi-analytic model to reproduce the evolution of observed galaxies across the final 7 billion years of cosmic history. Using Monte-Carlo Markov Chain techniques we explore the available parameter space to produce a model which attempts to achieve a statistically accurate fit to the observed stellar mass function at z=0 and z~0.8, as well as the local black hole-bulge relation. We find that in order to be successful we are required to push supernova feedback efficiencies to extreme limits which are, in some cases, unjustified by current observations. This leads us to the conclusion that the current model may be incomplete. Using the posterior probability distributions provided by our fitting, as well as the qualitative details of our produced stellar mass functions, we suggest that any future model improvements must act to preferentially bolster star formation efficiency in the most massive halos at high redshift.

  4. Estrogen receptor testing and 10-year mortality from breast cancer: A model for determining testing strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Naugler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy in the treatment of estrogen receptor (ER expressing breast carcinomas represents a major advance in personalized cancer treatment. Because there is no benefit (and indeed there is increased morbidity and mortality associated with the use of tamoxifen therapy in ER-negative breast cancer, its use is restricted to women with ER expressing cancers. However, correctly classifying cancers as ER positive or negative has been challenging given the high reported false negative test rates for ER expression in surgical specimens. In this paper I model practice recommendations using published information from clinical trials to address the question of whether there is a false negative test rate above which it is more efficacious to forgo ER testing and instead treat all patients with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. Methods: I used data from randomized clinical trials to model two different hypothetical treatment strategies: (1 the current strategy of treating only ER positive women with tamoxifen and (2 an alternative strategy where all women are treated with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. The variables used in the model are literature-derived survival rates of the different combinations of ER positivity and treatment with tamoxifen, varying true ER positivity rates and varying false negative ER testing rates. The outcome variable was hypothetical 10-year survival. Results: The model predicted that there will be a range of true ER rates and false negative test rates above which it would be more efficacious to treat all women with breast cancer with tamoxifen and forgo ER testing. This situation occurred with high true positive ER rates and false negative ER test rates in the range of 20-30%. Conclusions: It is hoped that this model will provide an example of the potential importance of diagnostic error on clinical outcomes and furthermore will give an example of how the effect of that

  5. Model Checking - My 27-Year Quest to Overcome the State Explosion Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Ed

    2009-01-01

    Model Checking is an automatic verification technique for state-transition systems that are finite=state or that have finite-state abstractions. In the early 1980 s in a series of joint papers with my graduate students E.A. Emerson and A.P. Sistla, we proposed that Model Checking could be used for verifying concurrent systems and gave algorithms for this purpose. At roughly the same time, Joseph Sifakis and his student J.P. Queille at the University of Grenoble independently developed a similar technique. Model Checking has been used successfully to reason about computer hardware and communication protocols and is beginning to be used for verifying computer software. Specifications are written in temporal logic, which is particularly valuable for expressing concurrency properties. An intelligent, exhaustive search is used to determine if the specification is true or not. If the specification is not true, the Model Checker will produce a counterexample execution trace that shows why the specification does not hold. This feature is extremely useful for finding obscure errors in complex systems. The main disadvantage of Model Checking is the state-explosion problem, which can occur if the system under verification has many processes or complex data structures. Although the state-explosion problem is inevitable in worst case, over the past 27 years considerable progress has been made on the problem for certain classes of state-transition systems that occur often in practice. In this talk, I will describe what Model Checking is, how it works, and the main techniques that have been developed for combating the state explosion problem.

  6. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore

  7. Neuronal cell death, nerve growth factor and neurotrophic models: 50 years on.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennet, M R; Gibson, W G; Lemon, G

    2002-01-10

    Viktor Hamburger has just died at the age of 100. It is 50 years since he and Rita Levi-Montalcini laid the foundations for the study of naturally occurring cell death and of neurotrophic factors in the nervous system. In a period of less than 10 years, from 1949 to 1958, Hamburger and Levi-Montalcini made the following seminal discoveries: that neuron cell death occurs in dorsal root ganglia, sympathetic ganglia and the cervical column of motoneurons; that the predictions arising from this observation, namely that survival is dependent on the supply of a trophic factor, could be substantiated by studying the effects of a sarcoma on the proliferation of ganglionic processes both in vivo and in vitro; and that the proliferation of these processes could be used as an assay system to isolate the factor. This work provides a short review mostly of the early history of this subject in the context of the Hamburger/Levi-Montalcini paradigm. This acts as an introduction to a consideration of models that have been proposed to account for how the different sources of growth factors provide for the survival of neurons during development. It is suggested that what has been called the 'social-control' model provides the most parsimonious quantitative description of the contribution of trophic factors to neuronal survival, a concept for which we are in debt to Viktor Hamburger and Rita Levi-Montalcini.

  8. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  9. Transition in, Transition out: a sustainable model to engage first year students in learning. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chester

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Peer mentoring, presented as an inclusive teaching approach, embedded in the curriculum, has been successfully implemented to support first year student learning. Developing sustainable and scalable models for large first year cohorts, however, provides a challenge. The Transition in, Transition out model is a sustainable peer mentoring model supporting the transition of both first and final year students. The model has been implemented in two Australian psychology programs, one face-to-face and one delivered online. The focus in this Practice Report will be on the outcome data for on-campus first year student at one university. Participants were 231 first year students (166 females and 65 males. Results suggest positive changes in academic performance and learning approaches as well as positive endorsement of the model.

  10. Lake isotope records of the 8200-year cooling event in western Ireland: Comparison with model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Jonathan A.; Tindall, Julia; Roberts, Neil; Marshall, William; Marshall, Jim D.; Bingham, Ann; Feeser, Ingo; O'Connell, Michael; Atkinson, Tim; Jourdan, Anne-Lise; March, Anna; Fisher, Elizabeth H.

    2016-01-01

    The early Holocene cooling, which occurred around 8200 calendar years before present, was a prominent abrupt event around the north Atlantic region. Here, we investigate the timing, duration, magnitude and regional coherence of the event as expressed in carbonate oxygen-isotope records from three lakes on northwest Europe's Atlantic margin in western Ireland, namely Loch Avolla, Loch Gealáin and Lough Corrib. An abrupt negative oxygen-isotope excursion lasted about 200 years. Comparison of records from three sites suggests that the excursion was primarily the result of a reduction of the oxygen-isotope values of precipitation, which was likely caused by lowered air temperatures, possibly coupled with a change in atmospheric circulation. Comparison of records from two of the lakes (Loch Avolla and Loch Gealáin), which have differing bathymetries, further suggests a reduction in evaporative loss of lake water during the cooling episode. Comparison of climate model experiments with lake-sediment isotope data indicates that effective moisture may have increased along this part of the northeast Atlantic seaboard during the 8200-year climatic event, as lower evaporation compensated for reduced precipitation.

  11. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Taskjelle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400–900 nm were found to be on average 0.15–0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39–0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice. This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  12. Modeling of Electromagnetic Waves Scattering from Snow Covered First Year Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, A. S.; Barber, D. G.; Isleifson, D. K.

    2011-12-01

    Modeling of electromagnetic wave interaction with sea ice is required for various remote sensing applications, such as an interpretation of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over sea ice. In this study, we present numerical modeling of the Normalized Radar Cross Section (NRCS) at vertical and horizontal polarizations from snow covered First Year (FY) sea ice. We consider sea ice as a layered medium with an arbitrary profile of dielectric constant, and the snow cover as a homogeneous layer on the top of the sea ice. Surface scattering at the snow-sea ice interface was taken into account by the first-order approximation of the small perturbation method. We obtained an analytical formulation for radar cross-sections at vertical and horizontal polarizations and conducted numerical modeling of the backscattering characteristics. The solution derived for NRCSs includes reflection coefficients from snow and sea ice. The calculation of reflection coefficients from the stratified sea ice is considered separately as an auxiliary problem. In-situ geophysical properties of snow and sea ice collected during the Circumpolar Flow Lead (CFL) system study project were used to estimate the dielectric constants of snow and sea ice for several case studies. The dielectric constant of the sea ice was calculated using the Polder-van-Santen/de Loor (PVD) mixture model, while the dielectric constant of the snow was estimated using a Debye-like model. The calculated angular dependencies of the NRCSs (HH- and VV- polarizations) and co-polarization ratios were compared with in-situ C-band scatterometer measurements. These comparisons demonstrate a good agreement between simulated and observed scattering characteristics.

  13. Development of a 10-year-old paediatric thorax finite element model validated against cardiopulmonary resuscitation data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Binhui; Cao, Libo; Mao, Haojie; Wagner, Christina; Marek, Stan; Yang, King H

    2014-01-01

    Thoracic injury in the paediatric population is a relatively common cause of severe injury and has an accompanying high mortality rate. However, no anatomically accurate, complex paediatric chest finite element (FE) component model is available for a 10-year old in the published literature. In this study, a 10-year-old thorax FE model was developed based on internal and external geometries segmented from medical images. The model was then validated against published data measured during cardiopulmonary resuscitation performed on paediatric subjects.

  14. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  15. Inflation model constraints from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe three-year data

    CERN Document Server

    Kinney, W H; Melchiorri, A; Riotto, Antonio; Kinney, William H.; Kolb, Edward W.; Melchiorri, Alessandro; Riotto, Antonio

    2006-01-01

    We extract parameters relevant for distinguishing among single-field inflation models from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) three-year data set, and also from WMAP in combination with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxy power spectrum. Our analysis leads to the following conclusions: 1) the Harrison--Zel'dovich model is consistent with both data sets at a 95% confidence level; 2) there is no strong evidence for running of the spectral index of scalar perturbations; 3) Potentials of the form V \\propto \\phi^p are consistent with the data for p = 2, and are marginally consistent with the WMAP data considered alone for p = 4, but ruled out by WMAP combined with SDSS. We perform a "Monte Carlo reconstruction" of the inflationary potential, and find that: 1) there is no evidence to support an observational lower bound on the amplitude of gravitational waves produced during inflation; 2) models such as simple hybrid potentials which evolve toward an inflationary late-time attractor in the space...

  16. A Realistic Cosmological Model Based on Observations and Some Theory Developed Over the Last 90 Years

    CERN Document Server

    Burbidge, Geoffrey

    2008-01-01

    This meeting is entitled "A Century of Cosmology." But most of the papers being given here are based on work done very recently and there is really no attempt being made to critically review what has taken place in the last 90 or 100 years. Instead, in general the participants accept without question that cosmology equates to "hot big bang cosmology" with all of its bells and whistles. All of the theory and the results obtained from observations are interpreted on the assumption that this extremely popular model is the correct one, and observers feel that they have to interpret its results in terms of what this theory allows. No one is attempting to seriously test the model with a view to accepting it or ruling it out. They are aware, as are the theorists, that there are enough free parameters available to fix up almost any model of the type. The current scheme given in detail for example by Spergel et al (206, 2007) demonstrates this. How we got to this stage is never discussed, and little or no attention is...

  17. Constraint on inflation model from BICEP2 and WMAP 9-year data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Cheng; Huang, Qing-Guo

    2015-11-01

    Even though Planck data released in 2013 (P13) is not compatible with Background Imaging of Cosmic Extragalactic Polarization (B2) and some local cosmological observations, including Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) samples and H0 prior from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) etc. Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe 9-year data (W9) is consistent with all of them in the base six-parameter ΛCDM + tensor cosmology quite well. In this paper, we adopt the combinations of B2+W9 and B2+W9+SNLS+BAO+HST to constrain the cosmological parameters in the base six-parameter ΛCDM + tensor model with nt = -r/8, where r and nt are the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the tilt of relic gravitational wave spectrum, and BAO denotes Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO). We find that the Harrison-Zel'dovich (HZ) scale invariant scalar power spectrum is consistent with both data combinations, chaotic inflation is marginally disfavored by the data at around 2σ level, but the power-law inflation model and the inflation model with inverse power-law potential can fit the data nicely.

  18. Testing the Oregon delinquency model with 9-year follow-up of the Oregon Divorce Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forgatch, Marion S; Patterson, Gerald R; Degarmo, David S; Beldavs, Zintars G

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents experimental tests of the Oregon delinquency model applied within a randomized design of an at-risk sample of single mothers and their elementary school-aged sons. In the theoretical model, ineffective parenting practices and deviant peer association serve as the primary mechanisms for growth in adolescent delinquent behavior and early arrests. Multiple-method assessments of 238 mothers and sons include delinquency as measured by teacher reports and official arrest records, parenting skills measured by observations of parent-child interactions, and deviant peer association as reported by focal boys. Analyses of the 9-year follow-up data indicate that the Oregon model of parent management training significantly reduced teacher-reported delinquency and police arrests for focal boys. As hypothesized, the experiments demonstrated that improving parenting practices and reducing contacts with deviant peers served as mediating mechanisms for reducing rates of adolescent delinquency. As predicted, there was also a significant delay in the timing of police arrests for youth in the experimental as compared to the control group.

  19. Latent transition models to study women's changing of dietary patterns from pregnancy to 1 year postpartum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotres-Alvarez, Daniela; Herring, Amy H; Siega-Riz, Anna-Maria

    2013-04-15

    Latent class models are useful for classifying subjects by dietary patterns. Our goals were to use latent transition models to identify dietary patterns during pregnancy and postpartum, to estimate the prevalence of these dietary patterns, and to model transition probabilities between dietary patterns as a function of covariates. Women who were enrolled in the Pregnancy, Infection, and Nutrition Study (University of North Carolina, 2000-2005) were followed for 1 year postpartum, and their diets were assessed in the second trimester and at 3 and 12 months postpartum (n = 519, 484, and 374, respectively) by using a food frequency questionnaire. After adjusting for energy intake, parity, smoking status, race, and education, we identified 3 dietary patterns and named them "prudent," "health conscious Western," and "Western." Nulliparas were 2.9 and 2.1 times more likely to be in the "prudent" class than the "health conscious Western" or the "Western" class, respectively. The 3 dietary patterns were very stable, with the "health conscious Western" class being the least stable; the probability for staying in the same class was 0.74 and 0.87 at 3 and 12 months postpartum, respectively. Breastfeeding mothers were more likely than nonbreastfeeding mothers to switch dietary pattern class (P = 0.0286). Except for breastfeeding mothers, most women did not switch dietary patterns from pregnancy to postpartum.

  20. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  1. A model 450 million years in the making: zebrafish and vertebrate immunity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen A. Renshaw

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first splash 30 years ago, the use of the zebrafish model has been extended from a tool for genetic dissection of early vertebrate development to the functional interrogation of organogenesis and disease processes such as infection and cancer. In particular, there is recent and growing attention in the scientific community directed at the immune systems of zebrafish. This development is based on the ability to image cell movements and organogenesis in an entire vertebrate organism, complemented by increasing recognition that zebrafish and vertebrate immunity have many aspects in common. Here, we review zebrafish immunity with a particular focus on recent studies that exploit the unique genetic and in vivo imaging advantages available for this organism. These unique advantages are driving forward our study of vertebrate immunity in general, with important consequences for the understanding of mammalian immune function and its role in disease pathogenesis.

  2. The First Year of OCO-2 XCO2 Observations: Bias Correction and Comparison to Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Dell, C.; Eldering, A.; Frankenberg, C.; Crisp, D.; Gunson, M. R.; Fisher, B.; Mandrake, L.; McDuffie, J. L.; Pollock, H. R.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Doran, G. B., Jr.

    2015-12-01

    Observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) have the potential to be revolutionary in their impact on our understanding of carbon sources and sinks. For this to be achieved, however, requires the observations to have sub-ppm systematic errors; the large data density of OCO-2 generally means that random errors will be of lesser importance in terms of regional scale fluxes. In this presentation we report on results from the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) algorithm as applied to the first year of OCO-2 observations, with a particular focus on filtering and bias-correction of the OCO-2 data "Nadir" and "Glint" mode data. In general, we find the random errors to be low (0.5-2.0 ppm), especially for ocean glint retrievals, consistent with the higher signal-to-noise ratio and reduced effects of aerosols over ocean. Systematic errors are explored via comparison to TCCON, low-variability southern hemisphere data, and data taken over small spatial regions. These are used to form a multi-linear bias correction, similar that that implemented for ACOS/GOSAT observations. Additionally we present comparisons of the first year of bias-corrected OCO-2 observations to inverse model output. This comparison will shed light on potential retrieval biases still lurking in the OCO-2 data, such as from surface albedo, aerosol effects, and other error sources.

  3. Social Recovery Model: An 8-Year Investigation of Adolescent 12-step Group Involvement following Inpatient Treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John F.; Brown, Sandra A.; Abrantes, Ana; Kahler, Christopher; Myers, Mark

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite widespread use of 12-step treatment approaches and referrals to Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) and Narcotics Anonymous (NA) by youth providers, little is known about the significance of these organizations in youth addiction recovery. Furthermore, existing evidence is based mostly on short-term follow-up and is limited methodologically. Methods Adolescent inpatients (N = 160; M age = 16, 40% female) were followed at 6-months, and at 1, 2, 4, 6, and 8 years post-treatment. Time-lagged, generalized estimating equations (GEE) modeled treatment outcome in relation to AA/NA attendance controlling for static and time-varying covariates. Robust regression (LOWESS) explored dose-response thresholds of AA/NA attendance on outcome. Results AA/NA attendance was common and intensive early post-treatment, but declined sharply and steadily over the 8-year period. Patients with greater addiction severity and those who believed they could not use substances in moderation were more likely to attend. Despite declining attendance, the effects related to AA/NA remained significant and consistent. Greater early participation was associated with better long-term outcomes. Conclusions Even though many youth discontinue AA/NA over time, attendees appear to benefit, and more severely substance-involved youth attend most. Successful early post-treatment engagement of youth in abstinence-supportive social contexts, such as AA/NA, may have long-term implications for alcohol and drug involvement into young adulthood. PMID:18557829

  4. A Model for Partnering First-Year Student Pharmacists With Community-Based Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Andrea L.; Shawl, Lauren; Motl Moroney, Susannah E.

    2012-01-01

    Objectives. To design, integrate, and assess the effectiveness of an introductory pharmacy practice experience intended to redefine first-year student pharmacists’ views on aging and medication use through their work with a healthy, community-based older-adult population. Design. All students (N = 273) completed live skills training in an 8-hour boot camp provided during orientation week. Teams were assigned an independently living senior partner, completed 10 visits and reflections, and documented health-related information using an electronic portfolio (e-portfolio). Assessment. As determined by pre- and post-experience survey instruments, students gained significant confidence in 7 skill areas related to communication, medication interviews, involving the partner in health care, and applying patient-care skills. Student reflections, in-class presentations, and e-portfolios documented that personal attitudes toward seniors changed over time. Senior partners enjoyed mentoring and interacting with students and many experienced health improvements as a result of the interaction. Conclusions. The model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults improved students’ skills and fostered their connections to pharmacist roles and growth as person-centered providers. PMID:22761526

  5. Dynamic evaluation of a multi-year model simulation of particulate matter concentrations over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    È. Lecœur

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A nine-year air quality simulation is conducted from 2000 to 2008 over Europe using the Polyphemus/Polair3D chemical-transport model (CTM and then evaluated against the measurements of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP.

    The spatial distribution of PM2.5 over Europe shows high concentrations over northern Italy (36 μg m−3 and some areas of eastern Europe, France, and Benelux, and low concentrations over Scandinavia, Spain, and the easternmost part of Europe. PM2.5 composition differs among regions.

    The operational evaluation shows satisfactory model performance for ozone (O3. PM2.5, PM10, and sulfate (SO42− meet the performance goal of Boylan and Russell (2006. Nitrate (NO3 and ammonium (NH4+ are overestimated, although NH4+ meets the performance criteria. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed data are 63% for O3, 57% for PM10, 59% for PM2.5, 57% for SO42−, 42% for NO3, and 58% for NH4+. The comparison with other recent one-year model simulations shows that all models overestimate nitrate. The performance of PM2.5, sulfate, and ammonium is comparable to that of the other models.

    The dynamic evaluation shows that the response of PM2.5 to changes in meteorology differs depending on location and the meteorological variable considered. Wind speed and precipitation show a strong negative day-to-day correlation with PM2.5 and its components (except for sea salt, which shows a positive correlation, that tends towards 0 as the day lag increases. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient is near constant for temperature, for any day lag and PM2.5 species, but it may be positive

  6. Prediction models for the 15 years risk of new-onset hypertension in Chinese people aged from 35 to 64 years old

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李国奇

    2014-01-01

    Objective To set up prediction models for the risk of new-onset hypertension in Chinese people and explorethe risk scores to facilitate the clinical application.Methods A cohort set up since 1992 with participants aged 35-64 years old from 11 provinces and cities of China was prospectively studied.Logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for the incidence of hy-

  7. The First 24 Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary, 20-22 September 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, László

    2013-11-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the fifth workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on the banks of the Danube in the Budapest suburbs in the autumn of 2012. Over fifty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community [1], producing an average of over 90 papers and 1200 citations per year over the last five years. It is particularly suitable for the study of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, as well as the structural analysis of disordered crystalline systems. The principal experimental data that are modelled are obtained from total x-ray or neutron scattering experiments, using the reciprocal space structure factor and/or the real space pair distribution function (PDF). Additional data might be included from extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS), Bragg peak intensities or indeed any measured data that can be calculated from a three-dimensional atomistic model. It is this use of total scattering (diffuse and Bragg), rather than just the Bragg peak intensities more commonly used for crystalline structure analysis, which enables RMC modelling to probe the often important deviations from the average crystal structure, to probe the structures of poorly crystalline or nanocrystalline materials, and the local structures of non-crystalline materials where only diffuse scattering is observed. This flexibility across various condensed matter structure-types has made the RMC method very attractive in a wide range of disciplines, as borne out in the contents of this special issue. It is however important to point out that since

  8. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  9. Curly tail: a 50 year history of the mouse spina bifida model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Straaten, Henny W.M.; Copp, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    Summary This paper reviews 50 years of progress towards understanding the aetiology and pathogenesis of neural tube defects (NTD) in the curly tail (ct) mutant mouse. More than 45 papers have been published on various aspects of curly tail with the result that it is now the best understood mouse model of NTD pathogenesis. The failure of closure of the spinal neural tube, which leads to spina bifida in this mouse, has been traced back to a tissue-specific defect of cell proliferation in the tail bud of the E9.5 embryo. This cell proliferation defect results in a growth imbalance in the caudal region that generates ventral curvature of the body axis. Neurulation movements are opposed, leading to delayed neuropore closure and spina bifida, or tail defects. It is interesting to reflect that these advances have been achieved in the absence of information on the nature of the ct gene product, which remains unidentified. In addition to the principal ct gene, which maps to distal Chromosome 4, the curly tail phenotype is influenced by several modifier genes and by environmental factors. NTD in curly tail are resistant to folic acid, but can be prevented by myo-inositol. These and other features of NTD in this system bear striking similarities to the situation in humans, making curly tail a model for understanding a sub-type of human NTD. PMID:11396850

  10. Constraint on inflation model from BICEP2 and WMAP 9-year data

    CERN Document Server

    Cheng, Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Even though Planck data released in 2013 (P13) is not compatible with Background Imaging of Cosmic Extragalactic Polarization (B2) and some local cosmological observations, including Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) samples and $H_0$ prior from Hubble Space Telescope (HST) etc, Wilkinson Microwaves Anisotropy Probe 9-year data (W9) is consistent with all of them in the base six-parameter $\\Lambda$CDM+tensor cosmology quite well. In this letter, we adopt the combinations of B2+W9 and B2+W9+SNLS+BAO+HST to constrain the cosmological parameters in the base six-parameter $\\Lambda$CDM+tensor model with $n_t=-r/8$, where r and $n_t$ are the tensor-to-scalar ratio and the tilt of relic gravitational wave spectrum, and BAO denotes Baryon Acoustic Oscillation. We find that the Harrison-Zel'dovich (HZ) scale invariant scalar power spectrum is consistent with both data combinations, $m^2\\phi^2/2$ chaotic inflation is marginally disfavored by the data at around $2\\sigma$ level, but the power-law inflation model can fit the...

  11. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  12. The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest; Bookhagen, Bodo; Palazzi, Elisa; Tahir, Adnan Ahmad

    2017-09-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.

  13. Hydrological variability in a comprehensive Earth System Model simulation of the past 2,000 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, S.; Zorita, E.

    2015-12-01

    The focus of climate reconstructions at large-scales has been so far placed on temperature (cf. PAGES2k, PMIP3) and particularly over the last millennium. Here, we present new global simulations with an Earth System Model covering the past 2,000 years and more specifically investigate the hydrological changes over southwestern North America (sNADA), and the European continent. On a global scale, changes in soil wetness are negatively correlated to changes in (local) temperature with the strongest correlations over the tropical and subtropical non-desert covered areas. Long term-trends over the full simulation period indicate increases for NH summer soil wetness over central NA, central Europe, whereas southern NA and southwestern Europe show drying tendencies. The evolution of the modelled and the reconstructed sNADA and soil wetness, respectively, over southwestern North America show only very little coherence, even on multi-decadal time scales. One explanation may be the high amount of internal variability and deficiencies in both model and reconstruction. An interesting second analysis pertains to the hydrological changes over the European continent in comparison with southwestern North America. Here, results indicate that on multi-decadal time scale those regions, especially the European Mediterranean, share common variance at lower frequencies on top of the millennial-scale trends. The prominent volcanic eruption in 528 AD produces an immediate increase of soil wetness over southwestern Europe and western North America. However, on a global scale this pattern is not robust, as in the 2nd ensemble member the same eruption produces a different pattern, especially in tropical areas pointing to the high degree of internal variability involved despite pronounced changes in volcanic activity.

  14. A global model of mantle conductivity derived from 5 years of CHAMP, Orsted, and SAC-C magnetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, A.; Olsen, Nils

    2006-01-01

    We present a global 1-D conductivity model which is obtained by analysis of five years ( 2001 - 2005) of simultaneous magnetic data from the three satellites Orsted, CHAMP and SAC-C. After removal of core and crustal fields as predicted by a recent field model we used non-polar scalar and vector...... model which is rather similar to models derived from ground-based data....

  15. Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that's constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing

  16. Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dany Habka

    Full Text Available During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1 the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2 the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that's constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new

  17. Two-Year Community: A 3+8 Model of Undergraduate Research for Community College STEM Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett-Robinson, Pamela M.; Villa, Brandi C.; Mooring, Suazette Reid

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the implementation of an innovative undergraduate research model for students attending a two-year institution. It gives students an opportunity to engage in undergraduate research at nearby four-year institutions, which provides a foundation that allows them to successfully make the transition to STEM programs at the…

  18. Two-Year Community: A 3+8 Model of Undergraduate Research for Community College STEM Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett-Robinson, Pamela M.; Villa, Brandi C.; Mooring, Suazette Reid

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the implementation of an innovative undergraduate research model for students attending a two-year institution. It gives students an opportunity to engage in undergraduate research at nearby four-year institutions, which provides a foundation that allows them to successfully make the transition to STEM programs at the…

  19. Mapping disability-adjusted life years: a Bayesian hierarchical model framework for burden of disease and injury assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacNab, Ying C

    2007-11-20

    This paper presents a Bayesian disability-adjusted life year (DALY) methodology for spatial and spatiotemporal analyses of disease and/or injury burden. A Bayesian disease mapping model framework, which blends together spatial modelling, shared-component modelling (SCM), temporal modelling, ecological modelling, and non-linear modelling, is developed for small-area DALY estimation and inference. In particular, we develop a model framework that enables SCM as well as multivariate CAR modelling of non-fatal and fatal disease or injury rates and facilitates spline smoothing for non-linear modelling of temporal rate and risk trends. Using British Columbia (Canada) hospital admission-separation data and vital statistics mortality data on non-fatal and fatal road traffic injuries to male population age 20-39 for year 1991-2000 and for 84 local health areas and 16 health service delivery areas, spatial and spatiotemporal estimation and inference on years of life lost due to premature death, years lived with disability, and DALYs are presented. Fully Bayesian estimation and inference, with Markov chain Monte Carlo implementation, are illustrated. We present a methodological framework within which the DALY and the Bayesian disease mapping methodologies interface and intersect. Its development brings the relative importance of premature mortality and disability into the assessment of community health and health needs in order to provide reliable information and evidence for community-based public health surveillance and evaluation, disease and injury prevention, and resource provision.

  20. Survival analysis of gastric cancer patients using Cox model: a five year study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Biglarian A

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available "n Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE AR-SA MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} Background: Gastric cancer is the second most common cancer and known as the second cause of death due to cancers worldwide. Adenocarcinoma is the most fatal cancer in Iran and a patient with this kind of cancer, has a lower lifetime than others. In this research, the survival of patients with gastric carcinoma who were registered at Taleghani Hospital, were studied."n"nMethods: 291 patients with Gastric carcinoma who had received care, chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy, at Taleghani Hospital in Tehran from 2002 to 2007 were studied as a historical cohort. Their survival rates and its relationship with 12 risk factors were assessed."n"nResults: Of the 291 patients with Gastric carcinoma, 70.1 percent were men and others (29.9% were women. The mean age of men was 62.26 years and of women was 59.32 years at the time of diagnosis. Most of patients (93.91% were advanced stage and metastasis. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that age at diagnosis, tumor stage and histology type with survival time had significant relationships (p=0.039, p=0.042 and p=0.032 respectively."n"n Conclusion: The five-year survival rate and median lifetime of gastric cancer patients who underwent chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy are very

  1. Performance assessment of different day-of-the-year-based models for estimating global solar radiation - Case study: Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassan, Gasser E.; Youssef, M. Elsayed; Ali, Mohamed A.; Mohamed, Zahraa E.; Shehata, Ali I.

    2016-11-01

    Different models are introduced to predict the daily global solar radiation in different locations but there is no specific model based on the day of the year is proposed for many locations around the world. In this study, more than 20 years of measured data for daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface are used to develop and validate seven models to estimate the daily global solar radiation by day of the year for ten cities around Egypt as a case study. Moreover, the generalization capability for the best models is examined all over the country. The regression analysis is employed to calculate the coefficients of different suggested models. The statistical indicators namely, RMSE, MABE, MAPE, r and R2 are calculated to evaluate the performance of the developed models. Based on the validation with the available data, the results show that the hybrid sine and cosine wave model and 4th order polynomial model have the best performance among other suggested models. Consequently, these two models coupled with suitable coefficients can be used for estimating the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface for each city, and also for all the locations around the studied region. It is believed that the established models in this work are applicable and significant for quick estimation for the average daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface with higher accuracy. The values of global solar radiation generated by this approach can be utilized in the design and estimation of the performance of different solar applications.

  2. Atmospheric CO2 content in the last 120,000 years: The phosphate-extraction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keir, R. S.; Berger, W. H.

    1983-07-01

    Broecker [1982] has proposed that during the retreat of the Wisconsin ice sheets, atmospheric CO2 increased because of the extraction of phosphorus from the ocean as sea level rose. Using a time-dependent box-model, we examine the consequences of the phosphate extraction hypothesis over the last 120,000 years, assuming that δ18O change in core V28-238 is analogous to sea level variation. The model takes into account the total CO2 and alkalinity balance in the deep sea and in an `upper' reservoir consisting of the surface ocean and atmosphere, which are assumed to be in equilibrium. Dissolution of deep-sea calcium carbonate sediment is assumed to respond to the supply of particulate carbonate from the `upper' box and to the dissolved carbonate-ion concentration of the deep sea. Assuming 1015 mole of phosphorus and 1017 mole of carbon were extracted during deglaciation, the predicted increase in pCO2 is 54 ppm. Variation of pCO2 follows the ice-volume forcing function with a 1000 yr lag, which is the input residence time of water in the deep sea. The accumulation (supply minus dissolution) of CaCO3 and the percent preservation (accumulation over supply) follow the derivative of the ice-volume function. Both are similar to the solution index and percent fragments of core V28-238. In addition, unusually good preservation is predicted during deglaciation due to carbon extraction. If phosphorus but not carbon is assumed to be extracted, the accumulation of CaCO3 varies little, remaining near a value equivalent to the river input.

  3. Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record

  4. Model year 2010 (Gen 3) Toyota Prius level 1 testing report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rask, E.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H.; Bocci, D.; Energy Systems

    2010-06-24

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Toyota Prius (Generation 3) was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of 'Level 1' testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA). Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network connection, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer data). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles and A/C usage cycles were conducted. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database (D{sup 3}). The major results are shown here in this report. Given the preliminary nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and seeks to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from the exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current and voltage from a DC power analyzer, and minimal CAN bus data such as engine speed and pedal position. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Prius over standard regulatory cycles.

  5. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  6. [Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Fei; Dai, Xin-hua; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Kui; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2016-02-01

    To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10 - 30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian's classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H (P Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

  7. Student Stress in a Three-Year Doctor of Pharmacy Program Using a Mastery Learning Educational Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frick, Lara J.; Frick, Jacob L.; Coffman, Renee E.; Dey, Surajit

    2011-01-01

    Objective To identify stress and stress-relieving mechanisms among second-year pharmacy students in a 3-year doctor of pharmacy (PharmD) program using a Mastery Learning Educational Model and to compare findings with those from a 4-year program. Methods Second-year PharmD students in a 3-year program were asked to complete a series of questionnaires including the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS) regarding stress and stress-relieving activities. Results The average PSS score for the 3-year PharmD cohort was significantly higher than the score of demographically similar students enrolled in a 4-year PharmD program (P = 0.04). There were significant differences between the 2 groups’ scores on 5 items on the PSS including how often they: were upset because something happened unexpectedly, felt unable to control important things, felt nervous and stressed, thought about things that had to be accomplished, and were able to control the way they spent their time. The rate of prescription drug misuse among those in the 3-year PharmD program was 11.6%. Conclusions Students in a 3-year PharmD program with a unique educational model experienced more stress than students in a traditional 4-year PharmD program. PMID:21769140

  8. A model-driven approach to quantify migration patterns: individual, regional and yearly differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunnefeld, Nils; Börger, Luca; van Moorter, Bram; Rolandsen, Christer M; Dettki, Holger; Solberg, Erling Johan; Ericsson, Göran

    2011-03-01

    1. Animal migration has long intrigued scientists and wildlife managers alike, yet migratory species face increasing challenges because of habitat fragmentation, climate change and over-exploitation. Central to the understanding migratory species is the objective discrimination between migratory and nonmigratory individuals in a given population, quantifying the timing, duration and distance of migration and the ability to predict migratory movements. 2. Here, we propose a uniform statistical framework to (i) separate migration from other movement behaviours, (ii) quantify migration parameters without the need for arbitrary cut-off criteria and (iii) test predictability across individuals, time and space. 3. We first validated our novel approach by simulating data based on established theoretical movement patterns. We then formulated the expected shapes of squared displacement patterns as nonlinear models for a suite of movement behaviours to test the ability of our method to distinguish between migratory movement and other movement types. 4. We then tested our approached empirically using 108 wild Global Positioning System (GPS)-collared moose Alces alces in Scandinavia as a study system because they exhibit a wide range of movement behaviours, including resident, migrating and dispersing individuals, within the same population. Applying our approach showed that 87% and 67% of our Swedish and Norwegian subpopulations, respectively, can be classified as migratory. 5. Using nonlinear mixed effects models for all migratory individuals we showed that the distance, timing and duration of migration differed between the sexes and between years, with additional individual differences accounting for a large part of the variation in the distance of migration but not in the timing or duration. Overall, the model explained most of the variation (92%) and also had high predictive power for the same individuals over time (69%) as well as between study populations (74

  9. [25 years of organized ambulatory heart sport in Luxembourg. The development of a sustained rehabilitation model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delagardelle, Charles; Feiereisen, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    underlying atherosclerotic processes, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality". The responsible ESC cardiologists agree with the international community that fighting CVD risk factors is at least as important as the whole arsenal of modern heart surgery and interventional cardiology. The core activity of ambulatory heart sport groups remains physical activity, and nowadays 6 different activities can be offered (one activity each day of the week): exercise lesson, swimming, walking, cycling, Nordic Walking and water gymnastics On the other hand comprehensive prevention programs, especially concerning CVD risk factors are also endorsed by the ambulatory heart sport groups of Luxembourg via regular meetings, conferences, brochures and symposia. One advantage of the ambulatory heart sport movement in Luxembourg, in contrast to the German model, is the direct financial allowance of the health ministry, which permits a lifelong activity to all the active members. Another advantage is that all the regional groups are directed by clinical cardiologists knowing the patients very closely. One weak point is that only about 5-10% of all potential candidates adhere to the ambulatory heart sport groups but nearly 50% of the active members are practicing for more than 5 years. These regularly active patients are a positive selection of well committed cardiac patients who, most of the time, control CVD risk factors with scrutiny. The ESC has recommended creating so called "Heart Houses" where all the aspects of comprehensive prevention and rehabilitation can be offered. Their main concern is to develop a sustained strategy which is desperately missing for the moment. A lot of the active members of the heart sport groups of Luxembourg achieve such a sustained activity and, therefore, these heart sport groups can be considered as very cost effective models of sustained rehabilitation. After a 25 years activity the ambulatory heart sport movement of Luxemburg has reached the outstanding goal

  10. Factor structure of a conceptual model of oral health tested among 65-year olds in Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrøm, Anne Nordrehaug; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven

    2010-04-01

    No studies have tested oral health-related quality of life models in dentate older adults across different populations. To test the factor structure of oral health outcomes within Gilbert's conceptual model among 65-year olds in Sweden and Norway. It was hypothesized that responses to 14 observed indicators could be explained by three correlated factors, symptom status, functional limitations and oral disadvantages, that each observed oral health indicator would associate more strongly with the factor it is supposed to measure than with competing factors and that the proposed 3-factor structure would possess satisfactory cross-national stability with 65-year olds in Norway and Sweden. In 2007, 6078 Swedish- and 4062 Norwegian adults borne in 1942 completed mailed questionnaires including oral symptoms, functional limitations and the eight item Oral Impacts on Daily Performances inventory. Model generation analysis was restricted to the Norwegian study group and the model achieved was tested without modifications in Swedish 65-year olds. A modified 3-factor solution with cross-loadings, improved the fit to the data compared with a 2-factor- and the initially proposed 3-factor model among the Norwegian [comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.97] and Swedish (CFI = 0.98) participants. All factor loadings for the modified 3-factor model were in the expected direction and were statistically significant at CR > 1. Multiple group confirmatory factor analyses, with Norwegian and Swedish data simultaneously revealed acceptable fit for the unconstrained model (CFI = 0.97), whereas unconstrained and constrained models were statistically significant different in nested model comparison. Within construct validity of Gilbert's model was supported with Norwegian and Swedish 65-year olds, indicating that the 14-item questionnaire reflected three constructs; symptom status, functional limitation and oral disadvantage. Measurement invariance was confirmed at the level of factor structure

  11. Use of the FAR Guide to Present a Pedagogical Analogical Model of Gel Electrophoresis in Year 10 Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a qualitative, practice based study describing the use of the Focus-Action-Reflection (FAR) Guide (Harrison & Treagust, 2000) to address the shortcomings of a pedagogical analogical model in Year 10 Science. The aim of this paper is to present my experience of the FAR Guide in relation to an analogical model that gave rise to…

  12. Assessing allometric models to predict vegetative growth of mango (Mangifera indica; Anacardiaceae) at the current-year branch scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Frédéric; Lauri, Pierre-Éric

    2012-03-01

    Accurate and reliable predictive models are necessary to estimate nondestructively key variables for plant growth studies such as leaf area and leaf, stem, and total biomass. Predictive models are lacking at the current-year branch scale despite the importance of this scale in plant science. We calibrated allometric models to estimate leaf area and stem and branch (leaves + stem) mass of current-year branches, i.e., branches several months old studied at the end of the vegetative growth season, of four mango cultivars on the basis of their basal cross-sectional area. The effects of year, site, and cultivar were tested. Models were validated with independent data and prediction accuracy was evaluated with the appropriate statistics. Models revealed a positive allometry between dependent and independent variables, whose y-intercept but not the slope, was affected by the cultivar. The effects of year and site were negligible. For each branch characteristic, cultivar-specific models were more accurate than common models built with pooled data from the four cultivars. Prediction quality was satisfactory but with data dispersion around the models, particularly for large values. Leaf area and stem and branch mass of mango current-year branches could be satisfactorily estimated on the basis of branch basal cross-sectional area with cultivar-specific allometric models. The results suggested that, in addition to the heteroscedastic behavior of the variables studied, model accuracy was probably related to the functional plasticity of branches in relation to the light environment and/or to the number of growth units composing the branches.

  13. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimi McEvoy

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis: A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS; eight groups (64 students by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment and session satisfaction (survey in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results: We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students’ reflective scores (p=0.0003 and satisfaction (p=0.0001. T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033; there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students’ reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions: Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students’ reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic

  14. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Mimi; Pollack, Staci; Dyche, Lawrence; Burton, William

    2016-01-01

    Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students) were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS); eight groups (64 students) by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students) were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment) and session satisfaction (survey) in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students' reflective scores (p=0.0003) and satisfaction (p=0.0001). T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033); there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students' reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students' reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic development. Overall, students preferred facilitated to non-facilitated peer feedback

  15. Performance of IRI-2012 model during a deep solar minimum and a maximum year over global equatorial regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sanjay

    2016-06-01

    Present paper inspects the prediction capability of the latest version of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI-2012) model in predicting the total electron content (TEC) over seven different equatorial regions across the globe during a very low solar activity phase 2009 and a high solar activity phase 2012. This has been carried out by comparing the ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)-derived VTEC with those from the IRI-2012 model. The observed GPS-TEC shows the presence of winter anomaly which is prominent during the solar maximum year 2012 and disappeared during solar minimum year 2009. The monthly and seasonal mean of the IRI-2012 model TEC with IRI-NeQ topside has been compared with the GPS-TEC, and our results showed that the monthly and seasonal mean value of the IRI-2012 model overestimates the observed GPS-TEC at all the equatorial stations. The discrepancy (or over estimation) in the IRI-2012 model is found larger during solar maximum year 2012 than that during solar minimum year 2009. This is a contradiction to the results recently presented by Tariku (2015) over equatorial regions of Uganda. The discrepancy is found maximum during the December solstice and a minimum during the March equinox. The magnitude of discrepancy in the IRI-2012 model showed longitudinal dependent which maximized in western longitude sector during both the years 2009 and 2012. The significant discrepancy in the IRI-2012 model observed during the solar minimum year 2009 could be attributed to larger difference between F10.7 flux and EUV flux (26-34 nm) during low solar activity period 2007-2009 than that during high solar activity period 2010-2012. This suggests that to represent the solar activity impact in the IRI model, implementation of new solar activity indices is further required for its better performance.

  16. Real-world emissions from model year 1993, 2000, and 2010 passenger cars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M.; Goodwin, R.; Watkins, R. [and others

    1995-11-01

    Air pollution by cars and light trucks is a major problem in metropolitan areas in the United States and around the world. Much of the discussion of this issue is based on the emissions per vehicle mile as determined under somewhat artificial testing conditions. The pollutants actually emitted vary considerably with the particular vehicle and the way it is driven, but the average emissions per mile are much higher than the test values. This report concerns the sources and levels of excess emissions, and the potential for reducing them. The history of automotive emissions regulation reveals remarkable success in reducing the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO{sub x}) from new automobiles - as measured in certification tests. The grams-per-mile (g/mile) standards for these tests are stringent, with 96% reductions mandated in comparison to the estimated pre-control (mid-1960s) levels for CO and HC; and 75% reductions mandated for NO{sub x}. Powerful new technologies have been developed and incorporated into every new vehicle in order to accomplish these reductions. Most noteworthy are the catalytic converter and closed-loop engine controls; the latter includes sensors before and after the engine proper, and computer analysis of the information leading to real-time control of fuel injection, with the principal objective of maintaining just the right chemical balance of fuel and air. The average lifetime real-world g/mile emissions associated with conventional gasoline fueled cars for model years 1993, 2000, and 2010 have been projected. Results are discussed.

  17. Accelerated 20-year sunlight exposure simulation of a photochromic foldable intraocular lens in a rabbit model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Liliana; Abdel-Aziz, Salwa; Peck, Carolee Cutler; Monson, Bryan; Espandar, Ladan; Zaugg, Brian; Stringham, Jack; Wilcox, Chris; Mamalis, Nick

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE To assess the long-term biocompatibility and photochromic stability of a new photochromic hydrophobic acrylic intraocular lens (IOL) under extended ultraviolet (UV) light exposure. SETTING John A. Moran Eye Center, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA. DESIGN Experimental study. METHODS A Matrix Aurium photochromic IOL was implanted in right eyes and a Matrix Acrylic IOL without photochromic properties (n = 6) or a single-piece AcrySof Natural SN60AT (N = 5) IOL in left eyes of 11 New Zealand rabbits. The rabbits were exposed to a UV light source of 5 mW/cm2 for 3 hours during every 8-hour period, equivalent to 9 hours a day, and followed for up to 12 months. The photochromic changes were evaluated during slitlamp examination by shining a penlight UV source in the right eye. After the rabbits were humanely killed and the eyes enucleated, study and control IOLs were explanted and evaluated in vitro on UV exposure and studied histopathologically. RESULTS The photochromic IOL was as biocompatible as the control IOLs after 12 months under conditions simulating at least 20 years of UV exposure. In vitro evaluation confirmed the retained optical properties, with photochromic changes observed within 7 seconds of UV exposure. The rabbit eyes had clinical and histopathological changes expected in this model with a 12-month follow-up. CONCLUSIONS The new photochromic IOL turned yellow only on exposure to UV light. The photochromic changes were reversible, reproducible, and stable over time. The IOL was biocompatible with up to 12 months of accelerated UV exposure simulation. PMID:21241924

  18. To Humbly Go: Guarding Against Perpetuating Models of Colonization in the 100-Year Starship Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, W. R.

    Past patterns of exploration, colonization and exploitation on Earth continue to provide the predominant paradigms that guide many space programs. Any project of crewed space exploration, especially of the magnitude envisioned by the 100-Year Starship Study, must guard against the hubris that may emerge among planners, crew, and others associated with the project, including those industries and bureaucracies that will emerge from the effort. Maintaining a non-exploitative approach may be difficult in consideration of the century of preparatory research and development and the likely multigenerational nature of the voyage itself. Starting now with mission dreamers and planners, the purpose of the voyage must be cast as one of respectful learning and humble discovery, not of conquest (either actual or metaphorical) or other inappropriate models, including military. At a minimum, the Study must actively build non-violence into the voyaging culture it is beginning to create today. References to exploitive colonization, conquest, destiny and other terms from especially American frontier mythology, while tempting in their propagandizing power, should be avoided as they limit creative thinking about alternative possible futures. Future voyagers must strive to adapt to new environments wherever possible and be assimilated by new worlds both biologically and behaviorally rather than to rely on attempts to recreate the Earth they have left. Adaptation should be strongly considered over terraforming. This paper provides an overview of previous work linking the language of colonization to space programs and challenges the extension of the myth of the American frontier to the Starship Study. It argues that such metaphors would be counter-productive at best and have the potential to doom long-term success and survival by planting seeds of social decay and self-destruction. Cautions and recommendations are suggested.

  19. Changes in southern hemispheric polar amplification over the past 5 million years revealed by climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoencamp, Jori; Stap, Lennert; Tuenter, Erik; Lourens, Luc; van de Wal, Roderik

    2016-04-01

    Knowledge on polar amplification is important to relate high latitude climate records to global mean temperature changes. Several studies have pointed out that the strength of polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere varies considerably due to the presence of large ice sheets and more sea ice during colder climate conditions. As a result, the polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere decreases for warmer climates. In this study, we address the fact that these changes in the Northern Hemisphere also affect the polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere. We study the Southern and Northern Hemisphere amplification together over the past 5 million years with the CLIMBER-2 intermediate complexity model. Radiation, land ice extent and height, and greenhouse gases are prescribed as forcing. We find that in contrast to the reduction in polar amplification in the Northern Hemisphere, polar amplification in the Southern Hemisphere increases for warmer climates. The amplification decreases in the Northern Hemisphere from 2.7 during glacial conditions to 1.6 for a pre-industrial climate, which is line with other climate simulations. Over the same CO2 range the southern hemispheric polar amplification increases from 1 to 1.6. This is caused by the fact that the atmospheric transport needed to balance the radiation surplus in the equatorial region needs to be compensated by relatively stronger transport of energy in Southern direction while the transport in Northern direction reduces. This reduction in Northern direction is driven by less (land and sea) ice resulting in a smaller meridional gradient in Northern direction and hence a smaller atmospheric transport. As a consequence, the traditional scaled (with LGM temperature) Dome C record needs to be corrected with a maximum of 0.6 degrees half-way glacial and interglacial conditions, if it is to be interpreted as global mean temperature change indicator. While this changes the amplitude, the phasing of

  20. Progress in Pressure Swing Adsorption Models During the Recent 30 Years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    曾嵘; 关建郁

    2002-01-01

    The pressure swing adsorption (PSA) models discussed here are divided into three categories: partialdifferential equation model, electrical analogue model and neural network model. The partial differential equationmodel, including equilibrium and kinetic models, has provided an elementary viewpoint for PSA processes. Usingthe simplest equilibrium models, some influential factors, such as pressurization with product, incomplete purge,beds with dead volume and heat effects, are discussed respectively. With several approximate assumptions i.e.,concentration profile in adsorbent, "frozen" column, symmetry and heat effects of bed wall, the more complexkinetic models can be simplified to a certain degree at the expense of a limited application. It has also been foundthat the electrical analogue model has great flexibility to handle more realistic PSA processes without any additionalhypothesis.

  1. Improving the Retention of First-Year College Students: A Temporal Model of Assessment and Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Hall P.; Davidson, William B.

    2015-01-01

    This investigation sought to determine when colleges should conduct assessments to identify first-year students at risk of dropping out. Thirty-five variables were used to predict the persistence of 2,024 first-year students from four universities in the southeastern United States. The predictors were subdivided into groups according to when they…

  2. Challenging the First Year of College: Old Models and New Imperatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Shala A.; Mehaffy, George L.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter argues that the first year of college needs to be reconsidered. The authors offer, as an alternative, a new kind of course, one created by groups of faculty members from different campuses, multidisciplinary in focus, delivered in a blended format, focused on civic outcomes, and intended primarily for first-year students.

  3. Programming Interpersonal Curricula for Adolescents (PICA) Project Year Three: A Laboratory Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Harold L.; And Others

    The report reviews the third year of a 4-year demonstration and research project, Programing Interpersonal Curricula for Adolescents (PICA). General purpose is to develop remedial procedures for adolescents with both scholastic and social or behavioral problems. In a half day educational program 12 such students study academic and interpersonal…

  4. Challenging the First Year of College: Old Models and New Imperatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Shala A.; Mehaffy, George L.

    2016-01-01

    This chapter argues that the first year of college needs to be reconsidered. The authors offer, as an alternative, a new kind of course, one created by groups of faculty members from different campuses, multidisciplinary in focus, delivered in a blended format, focused on civic outcomes, and intended primarily for first-year students.

  5. Lagrangian models of the particles with spin the first seventy years

    CERN Document Server

    Frydryszak, A M

    1996-01-01

    We briefly review models of relativistic particles with spin. Departing from the oldest attempts to describe the spin within the lagrangian framework we pass through various non supersymmetric models. Then the component and superfield formulations of the spinning particle and superparticle models are reviewed. Our focus is mainly on the classical side of the problem, but some quantization questions are mentioned as well.

  6. A novel substance flow analysis model for analysing multi-year phosphorus flow at the regional scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Rubel Biswas; Moore, Graham A; Weatherley, Anthony J; Arora, Meenakshi

    2016-12-01

    Achieving sustainable management of phosphorus (P) is crucial for both global food security and global environmental protection. In order to formulate informed policy measures to overcome existing barriers of achieving sustainable P management, there is need for a sound understanding of the nature and magnitude of P flow through various systems at different geographical and temporal scales. So far, there is a limited understanding on the nature and magnitude of P flow over multiple years at the regional scale. In this study, we have developed a novel substance flow analysis (SFA) model in the MATLAB/Simulink® software platform that can be effectively utilized to analyse the nature and magnitude of multi-year P flow at the regional scale. The model is inclusive of all P flows and storage relating to all key systems, subsystems, processes or components, and the associated interactions of P flow required to represent a typical P flow system at the regional scale. In an annual time step, this model can analyse P flow and storage over as many as years required at a time, and therefore, can indicate the trends and changes in P flow and storage over many years, which is not offered by the existing regional scale SFA models of P. The model is flexible enough to allow any modification or the inclusion of any degree of complexity, and therefore, can be utilized for analysing P flow in any region around the world. The application of the model in the case of Gippsland region, Australia has revealed that the model generates essential information about the nature and magnitude of P flow at the regional scale which can be utilized for making improved management decisions towards attaining P sustainability. A systematic reliability check on the findings of model application also indicates that the model produces reliable results.

  7. Budget impact analysis of a pneumococcal vaccination programme in the 65-year-old Spanish cohort using a dynamic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background This study aimed to assess the costs and clinical benefits of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) administered annually to the 65-year-old cohort in Spain versus the alternative of not vaccinating patients and treating them only when infected. Methods Cases of pneumococcal disease avoided were calculated through a dynamic model based on the work of Anderson and May (1999). Sixty-six percent of the 65-year-old cohort was assumed to have been vaccinated with one PCV13 dose (304,492 subjects). Base-case estimated vaccine effectiveness and serotype coverage were 58% and 60%, respectively. Disease-related costs were calculated based on published data. Results Over the 5-year period, a total of 125,906 cases of pneumococcal disease would be avoided. Net savings of €102 million would be obtained. The cost-saving distribution was not homogeneous, starting in the 2nd year and increasing through the 5th. To demonstrate model robustness, an additional scenario analysis was performed using extreme values of model parameters (vaccination programme coverage, vaccine effectiveness, discount rate and disease costs). Under those scenarios, net savings were always achieved. Conclusions Based on the assumptions of the model, the 65-year-cohort pneumococcal vaccination campaign appears to be a cost-saving intervention in the Spanish population under different scenarios. PMID:23578307

  8. Global climate simulations at 3000 year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Alder

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We apply GENMOM, a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, to simulate eight equilibrium "time-segments" at 3000 yr intervals for the past 21 000 years forced by changes in Earth-Sun geometry, atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs, continental ice sheets and sea level. Simulated global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM is 3.8 °C and the rate of post-glacial warming is in overall agreement with recently published temperature reconstructions. The greatest rate of warming occurs between 15 and 12 ka (2.4 °C over land, 0.7 °C over oceans and 1.4 °C globally in response to changes in radiative forcing from the diminished extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH ice sheets and increases in GHGs and NH summer insolation. The modeled LGM and 6 ka temperature and precipitation climatologies are generally consistent with proxy reconstructions, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations, and other paleoclimate data-model analyses. The model does not capture the mid-Holocene "thermal maximum" and gradual cooling to pre-industrial global temperature found in the data. Simulated monsoonal precipitation in North Africa peaks between 12 and 9 ka at values ~ 50% greater than those of the PI, and Indian monsoonal precipitation peaks at 12 and 9 ka at values ~ 45% greater than the PI. GENMOM captures the reconstructed LGM extent of NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH sea ice. The simulated present-day Antarctica Circumpolar Current (ACC is ~ 48% weaker than observed (62 vs. 119 Sv. The simulated present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC of 19.3 ± 1.4 Sv on the Bermuda Rise (33° N is comparable with the observed value of 17.4 Sv. AMOC at 33° N is reduced by ~ 15% during the LGM, and the largest post-glacial increase (~ 11% occurs, unforced, during the 15 ka time slice.

  9. A Model to Predict Student Failure in the First Year of the Undergraduate Medical Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard J.A. Baars

    2017-06-01

    Discussion: The earliest moment with the highest specificity to predict student failure in the first-year curriculum seems to be at 6 months. However, additional factors are needed to improve this prediction or to bring forward the predictive moment.

  10. 40 CFR 86.005-10 - Emission standards for 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.005-10 Section 86.005-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.005-10 Emission standards for 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty... and later model year Otto-cycle HDEs, except for Otto-cycle HDEs subject to the alternative...

  11. Stress Generation, Avoidance Coping, and Depressive Symptoms: A 10-Year Model

    OpenAIRE

    Holahan, Charles J.; Moos, Rudolf H.; Holahan, Carole K.; Brennan, Penny L.; Schutte, Kathleen K.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined (a) the role of avoidance coping in prospectively generating both chronic and acute life stressors and (b) the stress-generating role of avoidance coping as a prospective link to future depressive symptoms. Participants were 1,211 late-middle-aged individuals (500 women and 711 men) assessed 3 times over a 10-year period. As predicted, baseline avoidance coping was prospectively associated with both more chronic and more acute life stressors 4 years later. Furthermore, as ...

  12. A simple model for 100 K-year oscillations in glaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindzen, R. S.

    1986-01-01

    A simple climatic model which produces glaciation cycles of 100 K periods in response to forcing by 20 K, 40 K, and 100 K periods is described. The model is based on Milankovitch's (1930) hypothesis that glaciation fluctuations are forced by orbital variation and the associated change in insolation. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model, and the relation between heat variations and the ice/snow line are analyzed. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model is between the pole and 53 deg latitude and the line's position is the forcing for the glaciation cycle. Examples of the model's response to forcing are presented and evaluated. The negative glaciation permitted by the model is studied. The role of CO2 feedback in the glaciation cycle is investigated.

  13. Introduction to the special issue celebrating 200 years of geodynamic modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strak, Vincent; Schellart, Wouter P.

    2016-10-01

    Since the first published laboratory models from Sir James Hall in 1815, analogue and numerical geodynamic modelling have become widely used as they provide qualitative and quantitative insights into a broad range of geological processes. To celebrate the 200th anniversary of geodynamic modelling, this special issue gathers review works and recent studies on analogue and numerical modelling of tectonic and geodynamic processes, as an opportunity to present some of the milestones and recent breakthroughs in this field, to discuss potential issues and to highlight possible future developments.

  14. Temperature responses to the 11 year solar cycle in the mesosphere from the 31 year (1979-2010) extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulations and a comparison with the 14 year (2002-2015) TIMED/SABER observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Quan; Du, Jian; Fomichev, Victor I.; Ward, William E.; Beagley, Stephen R.; Zhang, Shaodong; Yue, Jia

    2017-04-01

    A recent 31 year simulation (1979-2010) by extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM30) and the 14 year (2002-2015) observation by the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emssion Radiometry (TIMED/SABER) are utilized to investigate the temperature response to the 11 year solar cycle on the mesosphere. Overall, the zonal mean responses tend to increase with height, and the amplitudes are on the order of 1-2 K/100 solar flux unit (1 sfu = 10-22 W m-2 Hz-1) below 80 km and 2-4 K/100 sfu in the mesopause region (80-100 km) from the eCMAM30, comparatively weaker than those from the SABER except in the midlatitude lower mesosphere. A pretty good consistence takes place at around 75-80 km with a response of 1.5 K/100 sfu within 10°S/N. Also, a symmetric pattern of the responses about the equator agrees reasonably well between the two. It is noteworthy that the eCMAM30 displays an alternate structure with the upper stratospheric cooling and the lower mesospheric warming at midlatitudes of the winter hemisphere, in favor of the long-term Rayleigh lidar observation reported by the previous studies. Through diagnosing multiple dynamical parameters, it is manifested that this localized feature is induced by the anomalous residual circulation as a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction during the solar maximum year.

  15. A Multi-Year Plan for Enhancing Turbulence Modeling in Hydra-TH Revised and Updated Version 2.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Thomas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Berndt, Markus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Magolan, Ben [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to document a multi-year plan for enhancing turbulence modeling in Hydra-TH for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Hydra-TH is being developed to the meet the high- fidelity, high-Reynolds number CFD based thermal hydraulic simulation needs of the program. This work is being conducted within the thermal hydraulics methods (THM) focus area. This report is an extension of THM CASL milestone L3:THM.CFD.P10.02 [33] (March, 2015) and picks up where it left off. It will also serve to meet the requirements of CASL THM level three milestone, L3:THM.CFD.P11.04, scheduled for completion September 30, 2015. The objectives of this plan will be met by: maturation of recently added turbulence models, strategic design/development of new models and systematic and rigorous testing of existing and new models and model extensions. While multi-phase turbulent flow simulations are important to the program, only single-phase modeling will be considered in this report. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also an important modeling methodology. However, at least in the first year, the focus is on steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling.

  16. Risk model for estimating the 1-year risk of deferred lesion intervention following deferred revascularization after fractional flow reserve assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Depta, Jeremiah P; Patel, Jayendrakumar S; Novak, Eric; Gage, Brian F; Masrani, Shriti K; Raymer, David; Facey, Gabrielle; Patel, Yogesh; Zajarias, Alan; Lasala, John M; Amin, Amit P; Kurz, Howard I; Singh, Jasvindar; Bach, Richard G

    2015-02-21

    Although lesions deferred revascularization following fractional flow reserve (FFR) assessment have a low risk of adverse cardiac events, variability in risk for deferred lesion intervention (DLI) has not been previously evaluated. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to estimate 1-year risk of DLI for coronary lesions where revascularization was not performed following FFR assessment. A prediction model for DLI was developed from a cohort of 721 patients with 882 coronary lesions where revascularization was deferred based on FFR between 10/2002 and 7/2010. Deferred lesion intervention was defined as any revascularization of a lesion previously deferred following FFR. The final DLI model was developed using stepwise Cox regression and validated using bootstrapping techniques. An algorithm was constructed to predict the 1-year risk of DLI. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 4.0 ± 2.3 years, 18% of lesions deferred after FFR underwent DLI; the 1-year incidence of DLI was 5.3%, while the predicted risk of DLI varied from 1 to 40%. The final Cox model included the FFR value, age, current or former smoking, history of coronary artery disease (CAD) or prior percutaneous coronary intervention, multi-vessel CAD, and serum creatinine. The c statistic for the DLI prediction model was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.61-0.70). Patients deferred revascularization based on FFR have variation in their risk for DLI. A clinical prediction model consisting of five clinical variables and the FFR value can help predict the risk of DLI in the first year following FFR assessment. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2014. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Collective Bargaining in Four Year Institutions: A Faculty Perspective Viewed through the Easton Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rockman, Ilene F.

    A systems model, developed by David Easton, is used to provide some clarity to many of the issues involved with collective bargaining in American higher education. The model serves as an illustration for understanding how decisions are made, and as a conceptual frame of reference to analyze the political situation. The issues surrounding…

  18. Ad hoc modeling in agronomy: What have we learned in the last 15 years?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Affholder, F.; Tittonell, P.A.; Corbeels, M.; Roux, S.; Motisi, N.; Tixier, P.; Wery, J.

    2012-01-01

    The “Use and Abuse of Crop Simulation Models” special issue of Agronomy Journal published in 1996 ended with the myth of the universal crop model. Sinclair and Seligman consequently recommended tailoring models to specific problems. This paper reviews the fate of the idea of such ad hoc approaches t

  19. The Pieter Schippers story : Almost 40 years of developments in sonar performance modelling in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, P.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Beerens, S.P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is dedicated to the work of Pieter Schippers and gives an overview of his achievement in sonar performance modelling over his career. This publication is the last of a long list, many of which published at UDT [1-5]. A historical review is presented of the sonar performance modeling work

  20. The Development of a Holistic Online Course Development Model (Year 1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFeeters, Forrest; Moore, Antionette; Chief, Irene

    2008-01-01

    This article includes a reflection on the experiences, both positive and negative, in using a collaborative approach to the development of an online instructional design model. It outlines the processes and points out the challenges associated in the creation of courses to be taught on the Internet using this model. There are reflections on the…

  1. Possible damping model of the 6 year oscillation signal in length of day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Pengshuo; Liu, Genyou; Hu, Xiaogang; Sun, Yafei; Li, Honglei

    2017-04-01

    A significant 6 year oscillation signal exists in the observed length-of-day (LOD) series. We recently used normal Morlet wavelet transform method to recover this oscillation signal. The result indicates that the amplitude of this oscillation has been decreasing for the over past 50 years. Using the simulation analysis, this study further demonstrates that the above result is reliable. However, the geophysical mechanism responsible for this decrease is less clear. Here, we develop a temporal-decaying function to characterize the secular attenuation of the oscillation signal. Using the least squared method, we obtain the corresponding quality factor Q value (51.6 ± 0.4) and the damping relaxation time τ (99.2 ± 0.8 years). We find the attenuation of the 6 year oscillation signal and its Q value can be explained by previous theoretical prediction, providing constraints on the related physical parameters of the lowermost mantle. The dissipative effect of electromagnetic coupling at the core-mantle boundary is likely to be a primary factor to cause the decaying of the 6 year oscillation signal.

  2. Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-07-27

    This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

  3. 77 FR 64051 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-18

    ... Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards... standards to improve fuel economy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions for vehicles manufactured for sale in... and address global climate change. Need for Correction As published, the final...

  4. Effectiveness of Video Self-Modeling to Promote Social Initiations by 3-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buggey, Tom

    2012-01-01

    Video Self-Modeling (VSM) provides individuals the opportunity to view themselves performing a task beyond their present functioning level through the careful editing of videos. In this study, a single-case multiple-baseline design was used to determine whether VSM would facilitate social initiations across three young children (M = 3 years 10…

  5. 40 CFR 1068.360 - What restrictions apply to assigning a model year to imported engines and equipment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 32 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What restrictions apply to assigning a model year to imported engines and equipment? 1068.360 Section 1068.360 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR POLLUTION CONTROLS GENERAL COMPLIANCE PROVISIONS FOR...

  6. 40 CFR 86.097-9 - Emission standards for 1997 and later model year light-duty trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 1997 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.097-9 Section 86.097-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions...

  7. 40 CFR 86.099-9 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year light-duty trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 1999 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.099-9 Section 86.099-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions...

  8. 40 CFR 86.001-9 - Emission standards for 2001 and later model year light-duty trucks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 2001 and later model year light-duty trucks 86.001-9 Section 86.001-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions...

  9. 77 FR 68070 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-15

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY 40 CFR Parts 85, 86, and 600 DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 49 CFR Parts 523, 531, 533, 536, and 537 RIN 2060-AQ54; RIN 2127-AK79 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas...

  10. 40 CFR Appendix IV to Part 600 - Sample Fuel Economy Labels for 2008 and Later Model Year Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Sample Fuel Economy Labels for 2008 and Later Model Year Vehicles IV Appendix IV to Part 600 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Pt. 600, App. IV Appendix IV to Part...

  11. 40 CFR 86.099-8 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year light-duty vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 1999 and later model year light-duty vehicles. 86.099-8 Section 86.099-8 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions...

  12. The First Year Results of the LHCf Experiment to Verify Cosmic Ray Interaction Models at LHC Energy

    CERN Document Server

    Itow, Yoshitaka

    2011-01-01

    The LHCf experiment is dedicated to the measurement of spectra of neutral particles at very forward region of the LHC collision point in order to verify various comsic ray interaction models used in air shower Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. We report status of the first data taking at LHC and preliminary results from the first year data.

  13. 40 CFR 86.004-9 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emission standards for 2004 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.004-9 Section 86.004-9 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions...

  14. 40 CFR 85.2204 - Short test standards for 1981 and later model year light-duty trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Short test standards for 1981 and later model year light-duty trucks. 85.2204 Section 85.2204 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF AIR POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES Emission Control System Performance Warranty...

  15. 40 CFR 85.2203 - Short test standards for 1981 and later model year light-duty vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 18 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Short test standards for 1981 and later model year light-duty vehicles. 85.2203 Section 85.2203 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF AIR POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES Emission Control System Performance Warranty...

  16. Models of Micro-Organisms: Children's Knowledge and Understanding of Micro-Organisms from 7 to 14 Years Old

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Jenny

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the expressed models that children aged 7, 11, and 14 years have about micro-organisms and microbial activity. These were elicited using a variety of data collection techniques that complemented each other, resulting in a rich dataset, and provided information about the level of knowledge and progression of ideas across the…

  17. Effectiveness of Video Self-Modeling to Promote Social Initiations by 3-Year-Olds with Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buggey, Tom

    2012-01-01

    Video Self-Modeling (VSM) provides individuals the opportunity to view themselves performing a task beyond their present functioning level through the careful editing of videos. In this study, a single-case multiple-baseline design was used to determine whether VSM would facilitate social initiations across three young children (M = 3 years 10…

  18. Prediction of the Science Inquiry Skill of Seventeen-Year-Olds: A Test of the Model of Educational Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakow, Steven J.

    1985-01-01

    This study: (1) tested the effectiveness of the Model of Educational Productivity for predicting the inquiry skill of 17-year-olds; (2) investigated if the prediction of inquiry differed for males and females; and (3) if the prediction of inquiry skill differed for white and nonwhite students. (JN)

  19. 75 FR 62739 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards; Notice of Intent

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-13

    ... increasingly important for the sustainability of auto companies. Trends in the world automotive market suggest... mass reduction, relative to Pathways B and C. Pathway C represents an approach where the industry... significant amounts of mass reduction, relative to 2008 model year vehicles, ranging from 15 to 30 percent...

  20. Stress Generation, Avoidance Coping, and Depressive Symptoms: A 10-Year Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holahan, Charles J.; Moos, Rudolf H.; Holahan, Carole K.; Brennan, Penny L.; Schutte, Kathleen K.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined (a) the role of avoidance coping in prospectively generating both chronic and acute life stressors and (b) the stress-generating role of avoidance coping as a prospective link to future depressive symptoms. Participants were 1,211 late-middle-aged individuals (500 women and 711 men) assessed 3 times over a 10-year period. As predicted, baseline avoidance coping was prospectively associated with both more chronic and more acute life stressors 4 years later. Furthermore, as predicted, these intervening life stressors linked baseline avoidance coping and depressive symptoms 10 years later, controlling for the influence of initial depressive symptoms. These findings broaden knowledge about the stress-generation process and elucidate a key mechanism through which avoidance coping is linked to depressive symptoms. PMID:16173853

  1. ECONOMIC MODELLING AND ANALYSIS OF HUNGARIAN WHEAT PRODUCTION IN THE MARKETING YEAR 2011

    OpenAIRE

    Kiss, Istvan

    2012-01-01

    In the framework of the present study I analysed the wheat production sector. In order to evaluate the situation prevailing in the sector I conducted an economic analysis which I based on primary data collection. The year of investigation was the production year of 2011. Long-term implications for different crop sectors can only be based on multi-annual analysis, so in this article I only attempted to analyse the sector with respect to 2011. To evaluate wheat production I compiled its cost st...

  2. PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

    2009-10-01

    Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

  3. Size-dependent melting of nanoparticles: Hundred years of thermodynamic model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K K Nanda

    2009-04-01

    Thermodynamic model first published in 1909, is being used extensively to understand the size-dependent melting of nanoparticles. Pawlow deduced an expression for the size-dependent melting temperature of small particles based on the thermodynamic model which was then modified and applied to different nanostructures such as nanowires, prism-shaped nanoparticles, etc. The model has also been modified to understand the melting of supported nanoparticles and superheating of embedded nanoparticles. In this article, we have reviewed the melting behaviour of nanostructures reported in the literature since 1909.

  4. Yield Model Development (YMD) implementation plan for fiscal years 1981 and 1982

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambroziak, R. A. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    A plan is described for supporting USDA crop production forecasting and estimation by (1) testing, evaluating, and selecting crop yield models for application testing; (2) identifying areas of feasible research for improvement of models; and (3) conducting research to modify existing models and to develop new crop yield assessment methods. Tasks to be performed for each of these efforts are described as well as for project management and support. The responsibilities of USDA, USDC, USDI, and NASA are delineated as well as problem areas to be addressed.

  5. Comparison of Two Stochastic Daily Rainfall Models and their Ability to Preserve Multi-year Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, AFM; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2016-04-01

    Stochastic simulation of rainfall is often required in the simulation of streamflow and reservoir levels for water security assessment. As reservoir water levels generally vary on monthly to multi-year timescales, it is important that these rainfall series accurately simulate the multi-year variability. However, the underestimation of multi-year variability is a well-known issue in daily rainfall simulation. Focusing on this issue, we developed a hierarchical Markov Chain (MC) model in a traditional two-part MC-Gamma Distribution modelling structure, but with a new parameterization technique. We used two parameters of first-order MC process (transition probabilities of wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry days) to simulate the wet and dry days, and two parameters of Gamma distribution (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. We found that use of deterministic Gamma parameter values results in underestimation of multi-year variability of rainfall depths. Therefore, we calculated the Gamma parameters for each month of each year from the observed data. Then, for each month, we fitted a multi-variate normal distribution to the calculated Gamma parameter values. In the model, we stochastically sampled these two Gamma parameters from the multi-variate normal distribution for each month of each year and used them to generate rainfall depth in wet days using the Gamma distribution. In another study, Mehrotra and Sharma (2007) proposed a semi-parametric Markov model. They also used a first-order MC process for rainfall occurrence simulation. But, the MC parameters were modified by using an additional factor to incorporate the multi-year variability. Generally, the additional factor is analytically derived from the rainfall over a pre-specified past periods (e.g. last 30, 180, or 360 days). They used a non-parametric kernel density process to simulate the wet day rainfall depths. In this study, we have compared the performance of our

  6. The model of the first-year students’ adaptation to vocational training: the example of foreign language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galishninkova Elena M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of adaptation of the first-year students to professional activity by means of foreign language. To design the adaptation model, we developed four-block questionnaires to determine students’ readiness for adaptation. The experiment resulted in the three groups of students with high, average and low levels of adaptation. Students with low level of adaptation become the target of our research. To remove the difficulties in studying a foreign language by the third group of students, an adaptation model was elaborated. Further, we identified the conditions for the effective implementation of the adaptation model of students to vocational training. In our view, these pedagogical conditions promote a more “sparing” transition of students to their main function as first-year students and increase the level of foreign language learning as well as improve the educational indicators.

  7. Experiences and lessons learned from 30 years of dynamic collector testing, modelling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perers, Bengt; Kovacs, Peter; Pettersson, Ulrik

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic testing and modeling (in contrast to Steady State line of action) of solar collectors is to prefer in most climates, except for the most extreme locations with clear skies every day. A very important part of dynamic testing and modeling is not only the thermal capacitance correction......, but also the split of the solar radiation absorption modeling, into beam and diffuse and the modeling of the collectors’ incidence angle dependency for both beam and diffuse radiation. These optical features are in most situations more important than the accuracy of the dynamic and thermal loss part...... concerning solar radiation measurements for beam and diffuse including alignment of sensors and test object, that are often not considered, which will be discussed and lessons learned will be given. A misalignment of just a few degrees of the collector test stand or the solar sensors will immediately show up...

  8. Cause-Effect Analysis: Improvement of a First Year Engineering Students' Calculus Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of…

  9. Cause-Effect Analysis: Improvement of a First Year Engineering Students' Calculus Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of…

  10. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fagbamigbe

    Conflict of Interest: Authors declared no conflict of interest ... Nigeria and predicted their chances of survival in their first ten years of life. Methods: ... The indicators for tracking this goal are (i) Under-five mortality rate (ii) Infant mortality rate and.

  11. Constructing a Model of Success for First-Year Native American College Writers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komlos, Barbara Zsuzsanna

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this grounded theory study was to explore Native American students' experiences with writing in the first year of college at a public research university and two tribal colleges, exploring in particular what helped them succeed as writers. Individual interviews with students served as the main sources of data and included…

  12. A Model for Incorporating Research into the First-Year Chemistry Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James R.; Prudente, Caryn; Newton, Thomas A.

    2008-01-01

    The development, implementation, and evaluation of a research-based program of laboratory instruction for first-year chemistry students is described. The new approach engages students in interdisciplinary, chemistry-centered research projects during the second semester of their general chemistry course. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  13. Anatomy Integration Blueprint: A Fourth-Year Musculoskeletal Anatomy Elective Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D.; Kauffman, Gordon L., Jr.; Kothari, Milind J.; Mosher, Timothy J.; Silvis, Matthew L.; Wawrzyniak, John R.; Anderson, Daniel T.; Black, Kevin P.

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of…

  14. Ten Years of Change in Sierran Stringer Meadows: An Evaluation of Range Condition Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbara H. Allen

    1989-01-01

    Grazed Sierra Nevada stringer meadow systems were sampled on Blodgett Forest Research Station in northern California between 1977 and 1987 to determine cattle use, and to examine changes in production and species composition over time. Utilization of meadow species averaged 61 percent over the 10 years, but use increased to more than 80 percent utilization after 1985....

  15. Indiana's Fourth Grade Project: Model Applications of Technology. Second Year, 1989-90.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Advanced Technology, Inc., Indianapolis, IN.

    Designed to identify teaching-learning strategies that can be facilitated by the use of technology and to specify factors and configurations that have impact on computer use in the classroom, this second-year study of computer use in Indiana schools focused on the effects of computer use on students and on teachers, the curriculum implications of…

  16. Anatomy Integration Blueprint: A Fourth-Year Musculoskeletal Anatomy Elective Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D.; Kauffman, Gordon L., Jr.; Kothari, Milind J.; Mosher, Timothy J.; Silvis, Matthew L.; Wawrzyniak, John R.; Anderson, Daniel T.; Black, Kevin P.

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of…

  17. A Year-Round Professional Development Model for World Language Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Tracy M.; Peterson, Margaret D.; Silva, Duarte M.; Padilla, Amado M.

    2009-01-01

    The Bay Area Foreign Language Program (BAFLP), one of nine regional sites of the California Foreign Language Project, offers ongoing, year-round professional development programs for world language educators. In addition, its leadership program prepares selected educators to assume leadership positions at their school sites, building capacity for…

  18. Stress Generation, Avoidance Coping, and Depressive Symptoms: A 10-Year Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holahan, Charles J.; Moos, Rudolf H.; Holahan, Carole K.; Brennan, Penny L.; Schutte, Kathleen K.

    2005-01-01

    This study examined (a) the role of avoidance coping in prospectively generating both chronic and acute life stressors and (b) the stress-generating role of avoidance coping as a prospective link to future depressive symptoms. Participants were 1,211 late-middle-aged individuals (500 women and 711 men) assessed 3 times over a 10-year period. As…

  19. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: Year 3 and Summative Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2015-01-01

    Over the past three years, California State University, Bakersfield received NSF funding to support hands-on explorations in "network security" and "cryptography" through Research Experience Vitalizing Science-University Program (REVS-UP). In addition to the summer bridge component, the grant included development of…

  20. A model of Earth’s magnetic field derived from 2 years of Swarm satellite constellation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Kotsiaros, Stavros

    2016-01-01

    More than 2 years of magnetic field data taken by the three-satellite constellation mission Swarm are used to derive a model of Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation. This model is called SIFMplus. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites...... the North–South gradient. The SIFMplus model provides a description of the static lithospheric field that is very similar to models determined from CHAMP data, up to at least spherical harmonic degree n=75. Also the core field part of SIFMplus, with a quadratic time dependence for n≤6 and a linear time...... with the model of the core, lithospheric and large-scale magnetospheric fields, a magnetic potential that depends on quasi-dipole latitude and magnetic local time....

  1. Pearls and pitfalls in human pharmacological models of migraine: 30 years' experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashina, Messoud; Hansen, Jakob Møller; Olesen, Jes

    2013-06-01

    In vitro studies have contributed to the characterization of receptors in cranial blood vessels and the identification of new possible anti-migraine agents. In vivo animal models enable the study of vascular responses, neurogenic inflammation, peptide release and genetic predisposition and thus have provided leads in the search for migraine mechanisms. All animal-based results must, however, be validated in human studies because so far no animal models can predict the efficacy of new therapies for migraine. Given the nature of migraine attacks, fully reversible and treatable, the headache- or migraine-provoking property of naturally occurring signaling molecules can be tested in a human model. If such an endogenous substance can provoke migraine in human patients, then it is likely, although not certain, that blocking its effect will be effective in the treatment of acute migraine attacks. To this end, a human in vivo model of experimental headache and migraine in humans has been developed. Human models of migraine offer unique possibilities to study mechanisms responsible for migraine and to explore the mechanisms of action of existing and future anti-migraine drugs. The human model has played an important role in translational migraine research leading to the identification of three new principally different targets in the treatment of acute migraine attacks and has been used to examine other endogenous signaling molecules as well as genetic susceptibility factors. New additions to the model, such as advanced neuroimaging, may lead to a better understanding of the complex events that constitute a migraine attack, and better and more targeted ways of intervention.

  2. 18 Years Later: Revisiting a Groundwater Model of the Cambric Site at NTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Considine, E. J.; Wheatcraft, S. W.; Meerschaert, M. M.

    2004-12-01

    Since its advent in 1974, the Radionuclide Migration Project at the Nevada Test Site has spawned several interesting groundwater modeling ventures. Of interest to this research is the Cambric detonation site, where a tracer test was conducted from 1975 to 1991. Burbey and Wheatcraft (1986) built a groundwater/transport model of the Cambric site and at the time of calibration had achieved a good match to the measured data. Since then the predicted concentrations have diverged from the measured concentrations, which exhibit classic heavy-tailed behavior. It has been hypothesized that the Fractional Advection Dispersion Equation (FADE) will better predict these late-time high concentrations; this research will apply the FADE to the Cambric problem and aims to reach a more complete understanding of the physical significance of the coefficients contained in the FADE. We first built a preliminary groundwater model, employing the traditional Advection Dispersion Equation, in the hopes of duplicating Burbey's predicted concentrations. Burbey used the Deep Well Disposal Model, whereas this investigation used MODFLOW and MT3D. While the new model has produced a breakthrough curve fitting the peak concentration, it too fails to produce the heavy tail seen in the measured data. Also of concern is the nonuniqueness of the new model's solution; the best-fit breakthrough curve can be produced by changing either one of at least two parameters. We believe that both of these shortcomings (under predicted late-time concentrations and non-uniqueness) may be resolved by using the FADE. Not only does fractional theory permit heavy tails, but also it effectively replaces aquifer heterogeneity with fractional derivatives, thereby reducing the probability of a nonunique solution. Future work includes modeling the Cambric problem with Tadjeran and Meerschaert's numerical, fractional, radial-flow transport code (2003) and evaluating the code's applicability to varied flow and transport

  3. Anatomy integration blueprint: A fourth-year musculoskeletal anatomy elective model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D; Kauffman, Gordon L; Kothari, Milind J; Mosher, Timothy J; Silvis, Matthew L; Wawrzyniak, John R; Anderson, Daniel T; Black, Kevin P

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of a course wherein the primary learning and teaching objective is to integrate basic science anatomy knowledge with clinical education. The course was developed through collaboration by a multi-specialist course development team (composed of both basic scientists and physicians) and was founded in current adult learning theories. The course was designed to be widely applicable to multiple future specialties, using current published reports regarding the topics and clinical care areas relying heavily on anatomical knowledge regardless of specialist focus. To this end, the course focuses on the role of anatomy in the diagnosis and treatment of frequently encountered musculoskeletal conditions. Our iterative implementation and action research approach to this course development has yielded a curricular template for anatomy integration into clinical years. Key components for successful implementation of these types of courses, including content topic sequence, the faculty development team, learning approaches, and hidden curricula, were developed. We also report preliminary feedback from course stakeholders and lessons learned through the process. The purpose of this report is to enhance the current literature regarding basic science integration in the clinical years of medical school.

  4. Ten-year-old children strategies in mental addition: A counting model account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevenot, Catherine; Barrouillet, Pierre; Castel, Caroline; Uittenhove, Kim

    2016-01-01

    For more than 30 years, it has been admitted that individuals from the age of 10 mainly retrieve the answer of simple additions from long-term memory, at least when the sum does not exceed 10. Nevertheless, recent studies challenge this assumption and suggest that expert adults use fast, compacted and unconscious procedures in order to solve very simple problems such as 3+2. If this is true, automated procedures should be rooted in earlier strategies and therefore observable in their non-compacted form in children. Thus, contrary to the dominant theoretical position, children's behaviors should not reflect retrieval. This is precisely what we observed in analyzing the responses times of a sample of 42 10-year-old children who solved additions with operands from 1 to 9. Our results converge towards the conclusion that 10-year-old children still use counting procedures in order to solve non-tie problems involving operands from 2 to 4. Moreover, these counting procedures are revealed whatever the expertise of children, who differ only in their speed of execution. Therefore and contrary to the dominant position in the literature according to which children's strategies evolve from counting to retrieval, the key change in development of mental addition solving appears to be a shift from slow to quick counting procedures.

  5. A simple risk stratification model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality rate in patients with solid-organ cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Wen-Chi; Wang, Frank; Cheng, Yu-Fan; Chen, Miao-Fen; Lu, Chang-Hsien; Wang, Cheng-Hsu; Lin, Yung-Chang; Yeh, Ta-Sen

    2015-11-01

    This study aimed to construct a scoring system developed exclusively from the preoperative data that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients with solid cancers. A total of 20,632 patients who had a curative resection for solid-organ cancers between 2007 and 2012 at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital Linkou Medical Center were included in the derivation cohort. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a risk model that predicts 1-year postoperative mortality. Patients were then stratified into four risk groups (low-, intermediate-, high-, and very high-risk) according to the total score (0-43) form mortality risk analysis. An independent cohort of 16,656 patients who underwent curative cancer surgeries at three other hospitals during the same study period (validation cohort) was enrolled to verify the risk model. Age, gender, cancer site, history of previous cancer, tumor stage, Charlson comorbidity index, American Society of Anesthesiologist score, admission type, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were independently predictive of 1-year postoperative mortality. The 1-year postoperative mortality rates were 0.5%, 3.8%, 14.6%, and 33.8%, respectively, among the four risk groups in the derivation cohort (c-statistic, 0.80), compared with 0.9%, 4.2%, 14.6%, and 32.6%, respectively, in the validation cohort (c-statistic, 0.78). The risk stratification model also demonstrated good discrimination of long-term survival outcome of the four-tier risk groups (P model not only predicts 1-year postoperative mortality but also differentiates long-term survival outcome between the risk groups.

  6. Global dataset of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Sindelarova

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1 together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980–2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg (C yr−1 consisting of isoprene (70%, monoterpenes (11%, methanol (6%, acetone (3%, sesquiterpenes (2.5% and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2%. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of up to ±17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for a sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene inventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene, α-pinene and group of monoterpenes showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements at sites located in tropical forests in the Amazon and Malaysia. The model was able to capture the seasonal variation of isoprene emissions in the Amazon forest.

  7. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  8. Cervical cancer screening in Australia: modelled evaluation of the impact of changing the recommended interval from two to three years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kirsten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that sexually active women between the ages of 18-70 years attend routine screening every 2 years. The publically funded National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007, with catch-up in females aged 12-26 years conducted until 2009; and this may prompt consideration of whether the screening interval and other aspects of the organized screening program could be reviewed. The aim of the current evaluation was to assess the epidemiologic outcomes and cost implications of changing the recommended screening interval in Australia to 3 years. Methods We used a modelling approach to evaluate the effects of moving to a 3-yearly recommended screening interval. We used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry over the period 1997-2007 to model compliance with routine screening under current practice, and registry data from other countries with 3-yearly recommendations to inform assumptions about future screening behaviour under two alternative systems for screening organisation - retention of a reminder-based system (as in New Zealand, or a move to a call-and-recall system (as in England. Results A 3-yearly recommendation is predicted to be of similar effectiveness to the current 2-yearly recommendation, resulting in no substantial change to the total number of incident cervical cancer cases or cancer deaths, or to the estimated 0.68% average cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated Australian women. However, a 3-yearly screening policy would be associated with decreases in the annual number of colposcopy and biopsy procedures performed (by 4-10% and decreases in the number of treatments for pre-invasive lesions (by 2-4%. The magnitude of the decrease in the number of diagnostic procedures and treatments would depend on the method of screening organization, with call-and-recall screening associated with the highest reductions. The

  9. A model of the 4000-year paleohydrology (δ18O) record from Lake Salpetén, Guatemala

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenmeier, Michael F.; Brenner, Mark; Hodell, David A.; Martin, Jonathan B.; Curtis, Jason H.; Binford, Michael W.

    2016-03-01

    A simple mass-balance model provides insights into the influence of catchment vegetation changes and climate variability on the hydrologic and stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) evolution of Lake Salpetén, in the Maya Lowlands of northern Guatemala. Model simulations for the last 4000 years incorporate pollen-inferred changes in vegetation cover and account for 75% of the variance observed in the biogenic carbonate δ18O record from a long lake sediment core. Vegetation-driven hydrologic changes, however, failed to capture the full range of late Holocene sediment core δ18O variability. The model requires incorporation of additional shifts in catchment vegetation cover, inclusion of regional precipitation changes, or likely both, to explain the fluctuations observed in the lake core oxygen isotope record. Climatic interpretation of the model results suggests that there was relatively greater moisture availability between about 2400 and 1800 years ago, but increased δ18O values centered at ~ 3300, 2900, 500, and 200 calendar years before present (cal yr BP) indicate abrupt precipitation decreases. There is evidence for protracted aridity between 1500 and 800 cal yr BP.

  10. Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Schärrer

    Full Text Available Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD. The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef, age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years. The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm. The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants.

  11. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 4 (Appendix IV)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 4 contains the following appendix sections: Radiative heat transfer properties for black liquor combustion -- Facilities and techniques and Spectral absorbance and emittance data; and Radiate heat transfer determination of the optical constants of ash samples from kraft recovery boilers -- Calculation procedure; Computation program; Density determination; Particle diameter determination; Optical constant data; and Uncertainty analysis.

  12. Model Simulations of the Arctic Atmospheric Boundary Layer from the SHEBA Year

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tjernstroem, Michael; Zagar, Mark; Svensson, Gunilla [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    2004-06-01

    We present Arctic atmospheric boundary-layer modeling with a regional model COAMPSTM, for the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment. Model results are compared to soundings, near-surface measurements and forecasts from the ECMWF model. The near-surface temperature is often too high in winter, except in shorter periods when the boundary layer was cloud-capped and well-mixed due to cloud-top cooling. Temperatures are slightly too high also during the summer melt season. Effects are too high boundary-layer moisture and formation of too dense stratocumulus, generating a too deep well-mixed boundary layer with a cold bias at the simulated boundary-layer top. Errors in temperature and therefore moisture are responsible for large errors in heat flux, in particular in solar radiation, by forming these clouds. We conclude that the main problems lie in the surface energy balance and the treatment of the heat conduction through the ice and snow and in how low-level clouds are treated.

  13. Islands as model systems in ecology and evolution: prospects fifty years after MacArthur-Wilson

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.H. Warren; D Simberloff; R.E. Ricklefs; R. Aguilée; F.L. Condamine; D. Gravel; H. Morlon; N. Mouquet; J. Rosindell; J. Casquet; E. Conti; J. Cornuault; J.M. Fernández-Palacios; T. Hengl; S.J. Norder; K.F. Rijsdijk; I. Sanmartin; D. Strasberg; K.A. Trantis; L.M. Valente; R.J. Whittaker; R.G. Gillespie; B.C. Emerson; C. Thébaud

    2015-01-01

    The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, ‘An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography’, was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, isl

  14. Twenty years at the margins: the Herman-Chomsky propaganda model, 1988-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Mullen, Andy

    2008-01-01

    2008 marks the 20th anniversary of the publication of Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky. This comment briefly assesses how the Herman-Chomsky Propaganda Model (PM) has been received within the field of media and communication studies in the United Kingdom.

  15. Compliance, Resistance and Seduction: Reflections on 20 Years of the Funding Council Model of Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filippakou, Ourania; Salter, Brian; Tapper, Ted

    2010-01-01

    Formally the new public management model of governance was introduced into British higher education with the passage of the 1988 Education Reform Act, which abolished the existing University Grants Committee (UGC) and instigated the funding councils. This article explores the relationship between the state, the funding councils and the…

  16. Obesity status transitions across the elementary years: Use of Markov chain modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overweight and obesity status transition probabilities using first-order Markov transition models applied to elementary school children were assessed. Complete longitudinal data across eleven assessments were available from 1,494 elementary school children (from 7,599 students in 41 out of 45 school...

  17. Dynamic evaluation of a multi-year model simulation of particulate matter concentrations over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    È. Lecœur

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A 9 yr air quality simulation is conducted from 2000 to 2008 over Europe using the Polyphemus/Polair3D chemical-transport model (CTM and then evaluated against the measurements of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP. The spatial distribution of PM2.5 over Europe shows high concentrations over northern Italy (36 μg m−3 and some areas of Eastern Europe, France, and Benelux, and low concentrations over Scandinavia, Spain, and the easternmost part of Europe. PM2.5 composition differs among regions. The operational evaluation shows satisfactory model performance for ozone (O3. PM2.5, PM10, and sulfate (SO4= meet the performance goal of Boylan and Russell (2006. Nitrate (NO3− and ammonium (NH4+ are overestimated, although NH4+ meets the performance criterion. The correlation coefficients between simulated and observed data are 63% for O3, 57% for PM10, 59% for PM2.5, 57% for SO4=, 42% for NO3−, and 58% for NH4+. The comparison with other recent 1 yr model simulations shows that all models overestimate nitrate. The performance of PM2.5, sulfate, and ammonium is comparable to that of the other models. The dynamic evaluation shows that the response of PM2.5 to changes in meteorology differs depending on location and the meteorological variable considered. Wind speed and precipitation show a strong negative day-to-day correlation with PM2.5 and its components (except for sea salt, which shows a positive correlation, which tends towards 0 as the day lag increases. On the other hand, the correlation coefficient is near constant for temperature, for any day lag and PM2.5 species, but it may be positive or negative depending on the species and, for sulfate, depending on the location. The effects of precipitation and wind speed on PM2.5 and its components are better reproduced by the model than the effects of temperature. This is mainly due to the fact that temperature has different effects on the PM2.5 components, unlike

  18. Modeling diarrhea disease in children less than 5 years old: a GAM and GLM approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sharif mahmood

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} This paper presents the application of generalized additive model (GAM and generalized linear model (GLM as an exploratory tool for analyzing the factors that affect the occurrence of diarrhea of Bangladeshi child. The relation between the factors that are related with occurrence of diarrhea can be obtained by modeling parametric approach (GLM. But in practice the relation is not straight forward and we require elaborate explanations which incline semiparametric regression (GAM. We present a unified approach for analyzing factors affecting diarrhea via GLM and GAM. We applied Akaike's information criterion to select the best model for our data. Our study analyzes nonlinear resolution of covariate not available with traditional parametric models and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce occurrence of diarrhea by improving socio-economic and public health conditions.

  19. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...... ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis...

  20. Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Hiemstra, Christopher [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Christensen, Jens [DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INS.

    2009-01-01

    Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrIS were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.

  1. Model for determining the change in value of the forest captial during the financial year. Modell foer beraekning av skogskapitalets vaerdefoeraendring under raekenskapsaret

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegg, A.

    1993-01-01

    The annual report of a forestry district usually states an operating profit, expressed in monetary units, and a return figure, expressed as a percentage of the capital employed. If the operating profit from logging and silviculture in any given year is to reflect the true profit generated by the district, the profit must equal the value increment of that year. Any difference amounts to a change in the value of the forest capital. The aim of the study is to present a model for calculating the annual value increment and the operating profit from logging and silviculture, expressed in commensurable units. Thus, the model will make it possible to compare these quantities. The model presupposes the existence of a computer based, regularly updated, stand register. The problem analysis carried out has lead to the following conclusions: The value increment of the stand ensues from an increase of its anticipated value. It is, accordingly, a calculated value; At the start, the entire holding must be valued stand-by-stand; In the valuations, the real discount rate, as well as in- and outpayments should be adjusted for taxes; The value changes of the forest capital during the year should be based upon the calculated net profit, not upon the actual profit; and Actually existing stand registers can be used as a basis for the model, even if they do not explicity state all the data required by the model.

  2. ACEEE's green book: The environmental guide to cars and trucks, Model year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeCicco, J.; Kliesch, J.; Thomas, M.

    2000-07-01

    This pathbreaking guide ranks cars and trucks according to environmental friendliness. Buyers can compare cars, vans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles by their environmental impacts, including air pollution, global warming, and fuel efficiency. Inside the guide: how to buy the cleanest and most efficient vehicle that meets your needs; Green Scores for all 2000 makes and models, listed by class--compact, mid-size, and large cars, vans, pickups, and sport utilities; Best of 2000 section featuring the greenest models in each class; Green by Design chapter highlighting advanced technologies and what makes some vehicles greener than others; listings for electric and other alternative fuel vehicles in addition to gasoline and diesel vehicles; tips on keeping your vehicle running cleanly and efficiently; and the environmental impacts of vehicles, including global warming and the health effects of vehicle pollution.

  3. An optimal energy allocation model using fuzzy linear programming for energy planning in India for the year 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jebaraj, S.; Iniyan, S. [Anna University, Chennai (India). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-07-01

    Development of an energy allocation model will help in the proper allocation of the energy sources in meeting the future energy demand in India. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a fuzzy-based linear programming optimal energy model that minimises the cost and determines the optimum allocation of different energy sources for the centralised and decentralised power generation in India. The potential, energy demand, efficiency, emission and carbon tax are used as constraints in the model. The model allocates the energy distribution pattern for the year 2020 in India. The results indicate that the energy distribution pattern would be 15,800 GWh (4%) from the coal-based plants, 85,400 GWh (20%) from the nuclear plants, 191,100 GWh (44%) from the hydro plants, 22,400 GWh (5%) from the wind turbine generators, 45,520 GWh (11%) from the biomass gasifier plants, 14,112 GWh (3%) from the biogas plants, 8400 GWh (2%) from the solid waste, 33,600 GWh (8%) from the cogeneration plants and 11,970 GWh (3%) from the mini-hydel plants, for the year 2020. A sensitivity analysis has been done to validate the OEAM model. This study will help in the formation of strategies for the effective utilisation of energy sources in India.

  4. An optimal energy allocation model using fuzzy linear programming for energy planning in India for the year 2020

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jebaraj, S.; Iniyan, S. [Anna University, Chennai (India). Department of Mechanical Engineering

    2004-08-15

    Development of an energy allocation model will help in the proper allocation of the energy sources in meeting the future energy demand in India. In this paper, an attempt has been made to develop a fuzzy-based linear programming optimal energy model that minimises the cost and determines the optimum allocation of different energy sources for the centralised and decentralised power generation in India. The potential, energy demand, efficiency, emission and carbon tax are used as constraints in the model. The model allocates the energy distribution pattern for the year 2020 in India. The results indicate that the energy distribution pattern would be 15,800 GWh (4%) from the coal-based plants, 85 400 GWh (20%) from the nuclear plants, 191,100 GWh (44%) from the hydro plants, 22 400 GWh (5%) from the wind turbine generators, 45,520 GWh (11%) from the biomass gasifier plants, 14,112 GWh (3%) from the biogas plants, 8400 GWh (2%) from the solid waste, 33,600 GWh (8%) from the cogeneration plants and 11,970 GWh (3%) from the mini-hydel plants, for the year 2020. A sensitivity analysis has been done to validate the OEAM model. This study will help in the formation of strategies for the effective utilisation of energy sources in India.

  5. Evaluation of a model of dissertation supervision for 3rd year B.Sc. undergraduate nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholefield, Donna; Cox, Georgina

    2016-03-01

    All English universities now offer an all degree undergraduate nursing programme. Many currently use an individual supervision model to support final year dissertation students, but with increased numbers and limited resources new models of supervision are needed. This study evaluated a mixed (group and individual) model of dissertation supervision to determine its effectiveness for a large group of undergraduate nursing students. A sample of 3rd year students and their supervisors were selected from one large university. An evaluation survey was conducted using anonymous internet-based questionnaires and focus groups. The data was analysed using Survey Monkey, SPSS and thematic analysis. A 51% (n = 56/110) response rate (students) and 65% (n = 24/37) for supervisors was obtained. The majority of students and supervisors were satisfied with the new model. There was a mixed response to the group workshops and supervision groups. Three themes emerged from the qualitative data: engaging with the process, motivation to supervise and valuing the process. The supervision process is a struggle but both parties gained considerably from going through the process. In conclusion, a mixed model of supervision together with a range of other learning resources can be an effective approach in supporting students through the dissertation process.

  6. Forty years of {sup 9}Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez, J.M. [CEA-Cadarache, DTN/SMTM/LMTE, BP 1, 13108 Saint Paul Lez Durance (France)]. E-mail: jean-michel.fernandez@noumea.ird.nc; Piault, E. [CEA-Cadarache, DTN/SMTM/LMTE, BP 1, 13108 Saint Paul Lez Durance (France); Macouillard, D. [ENSIL, 16 rue d' Atlantis, Technopole BP 6804, 87068 Limoges (France); Juncos, C. [Universite de Savoie, BP 1104, 73011 Chambery (France)

    2006-07-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of {sup 9}Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The {sup 9}Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of {sup 9}Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the {sup 9}Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year{sup -1} in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined.

  7. The Propaganda Model after 20 Years: Interview with Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky

    OpenAIRE

    Mullen, Andrew

    2009-01-01

    Andrew Mullen (AM) – Question 1: The first of the three hypotheses put forward in the Propaganda Model is that, where there is elite consensus, the media will serve elite interests uncompromisingly. Do you have any observations, or are there any general rules, concerning the existence (or not) of consensus among the elite (i.e. are particular issues prone to consensus/dissensus) or should media analysts approach the question on an issue-by-issue basis through empirical investigation?

  8. Alternative Mental Models of Second-Year Engineering Students for Coulomb’s Law and the Electric Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Bohigas

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study is to identify the mental models applied by students using Coulomb's law and the electric field concept to interpret electrostatic phenomena at the beginning of a second-year engineering course. Results indicate that most students do not correctly apply the symmetry of Coulomb's law. Although they have a coherent mental model, their version is not consistent with that which is scientifically accepted, and they confuse the concept of the electric field with the force between charges.

  9. Animal Models of Peritoneal Dialysis: Thirty Years of Our Own Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Pawlaczyk

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Experimental animal models improve our understanding of technical problems in peritoneal dialysis PD, and such studies contribute to solving crucial clinical problems. We established an acute and chronic PD model in nonuremic and uremic rats. We observed that kinetics of PD in rats change as the animals are aging, and this effect is due not only to an increasing peritoneal surface area, but also to changes in the permeability of the peritoneum. Changes of the peritoneal permeability seen during chronic PD in rats are comparable to results obtained in humans treated with PD. Effluent dialysate can be drained repeatedly to measure concentration of various bioactive molecules and to correlate the results with the peritoneal permeability. Additionally we can study in in vitro conditions properties of the effluent dialysate on cultured peritoneal mesothelial cells or fibroblasts. We can evaluate acute and chronic effect of various additives to the dialysis fluid on function and permeability of the peritoneum. Results from such study are even more relevant to the clinical scenario when experiments are performed in uremic rats. Our experimental animal PD model not only helps to understand the pathophysiology of PD but also can be used for testing biocompatibility of new PD fluids.

  10. Animal Models of Peritoneal Dialysis: Thirty Years of Our Own Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawlaczyk, Krzysztof; Baum, Ewa; Schwermer, Krzysztof; Hoppe, Krzysztof; Lindholm, Bengt; Breborowicz, Andrzej

    2015-01-01

    Experimental animal models improve our understanding of technical problems in peritoneal dialysis PD, and such studies contribute to solving crucial clinical problems. We established an acute and chronic PD model in nonuremic and uremic rats. We observed that kinetics of PD in rats change as the animals are aging, and this effect is due not only to an increasing peritoneal surface area, but also to changes in the permeability of the peritoneum. Changes of the peritoneal permeability seen during chronic PD in rats are comparable to results obtained in humans treated with PD. Effluent dialysate can be drained repeatedly to measure concentration of various bioactive molecules and to correlate the results with the peritoneal permeability. Additionally we can study in in vitro conditions properties of the effluent dialysate on cultured peritoneal mesothelial cells or fibroblasts. We can evaluate acute and chronic effect of various additives to the dialysis fluid on function and permeability of the peritoneum. Results from such study are even more relevant to the clinical scenario when experiments are performed in uremic rats. Our experimental animal PD model not only helps to understand the pathophysiology of PD but also can be used for testing biocompatibility of new PD fluids.

  11. 8 years of experience in international, interdisciplinary and structured doctoral training in Earth system modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Antje; Stevens, Bjorn; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    The mission of the International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM) is to provide a high quality, modern and structured graduate education to students pursuing a doctoral degree in Earth system modelling. In so doing, the IMPRS-ESM also strives to advance the emerging discipline (or cross-discipline) of Earth system modelling; to provide a framework for attracting the most talented and creative young women and men from around the world to pursue their doctoral education in Germany; to provide advanced as well as specialized academic training and scientific guidance to doctoral students; to encourage academic networking and publication of research results; to better integrate doctoral research at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) with education and research at the University of Hamburg and other cooperating institutions. Core elements are rigorous selection of doctoral students, effective academic supervision, advanced academic training opportunities and interdisciplinary communication as well as administrative support. IMPRS-ESM graduates have been recognized with a variety of awards. 85% of our alumni continue a career in research. In this presentation we review the challenges for an interdisciplinary PhD program in Earth system sciences and the types of routines we have implemented to surmount them as well as key elements that we believe contribute to the success of our doctoral program.

  12. Animal models of chemical carcinogenesis: driving breakthroughs in cancer research for 100 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Christopher J.

    2016-01-01

    Chemical carcinogenesis studies in animals have directly contributed to a reduction of cancer burden in the human population through their ability to identify carcinogens from the workplace, diet, and environment. Reduced exposure to these carcinogens through lifestyle changes, government regulation, or change in industry practices has reduced cancer incidence in exposed populations. In addition to providing the first experimental evidence for the link between chemical and radiation exposure and cancer, animal models of environmentally induced cancer have and will continue to provide important insight into the causes, mechanisms, and conceptual frameworks of cancer. More recently, combining chemical carcinogens with genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) has emerged as an invaluable approach to study the complex interaction between genotype and environment that contributes to cancer development. In the future, animal models of environmentally induced cancer are likely to provide insight into areas such as the epigenetic basis of cancer, genetic modifiers of cancer susceptibility, the systems biology of cancer, inflammation and cancer, and cancer prevention. PMID:26430259

  13. The Effect of Talking Drawings on Five-Year-Old Turkish Children's Mental Models of the Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahi, Berat

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study is to determine the effect of talking drawings on Turkish preschool children's mental models of the water cycle. The study was conducted in the city of Kastamonu, located in the north-west of Turkey. A total of 40 five-year-old preschool children participated in the study in the spring term of the 2015-2016 school…

  14. Using Logistic Regression to Model New York City Restaurant Grades Over a Two-Year Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Nadler

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A knowledge gap exists in the role of restaurant type on the prediction of attaining the highest grade possible from the local health inspection agency. This study identified disparities using logistic regression between the issuance of a Grade A and restaurant type and location. This study tested the eight most inspected types of restaurants within the City of New York and calculated the odds ratios of their receiving the highest inspection grade by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. A fitted equation has been proposed for the prediction of receiving the highest inspection grade based upon the citywide results of these eight restaurant types from calendar years 2011 and 2012. The results suggest that certain styles of restaurants have lower odds of receiving the highest grade in comparison to American-style restaurants.

  15. Evaluation of an outreach education model over five years: Perception of dental students and their outreach clinical mentors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisnert, L; Redmo Emanuelsson, I; Papia, E; Ericson, D

    2017-05-01

    The objective was to investigate changes in students' and clinical mentors' perceptions of a model for outreach education over a 5-year period, 2006-2010. Two cohorts of last-year students of a dental problem-based curriculum and their clinical mentors in the Public Dental Service (PDS) were invited to respond to a questionnaire. In 2006, 85% of 54 students and 72% of their 54 mentors responded; 98% of 40 students and 88% of 41 of the mentors did so in 2010. Participants scored their level of agreement with different statements on a numeric rating scale and gave comments. Dental students and their clinical mentors reported that they shared a consistent and favourable perception of this outreach education model over 5 years. The students reported increased professional confidence and self-reliance. Clinical mentors expressed a transfer of knowledge to their clinics. Differences in scoring were seen between students and mentors for two statements in 2006 and two statements in 2010 (P students perceived that they became self-reliant, which may facilitate their transition from being a student to becoming a professional. The current model supports exchange and professional development for students, faculty and outreach clinics. This leads us to look at outreach education as an opportunity to form a mutual learning community comprised of the outreach clinics and the dental school. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Fifty years of the integrated control concept: moving the model and implementation forward in Arizona.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naranjo, Steven E; Ellsworth, Peter C

    2009-12-01

    Fifty years ago, Stern, Smith, van den Bosch and Hagen outlined a simple but sophisticated idea of pest control predicated on the complementary action of chemical and biological control. This integrated control concept has since been a driving force and conceptual foundation for all integrated pest management (IPM) programs. The four basic elements include thresholds for determining the need for control, sampling to determine critical densities, understanding and conserving the biological control capacity in the system and the use of selective insecticides or selective application methods, when needed, to augment biological control. Here we detail the development, evolution, validation and implementation of an integrated control (IC) program for whitefly, Bemisia tabaci (Genn.), in the Arizona cotton system that provides a rare example of the vision of Stern and his colleagues. Economic thresholds derived from research-based economic injury levels were developed and integrated with rapid and accurate sampling plans into validated decision tools widely adopted by consultants and growers. Extensive research that measured the interplay among pest population dynamics, biological control by indigenous natural enemies and selective insecticides using community ordination methods, predator:prey ratios, predator exclusion and demography validated the critical complementary roles played by chemical and biological control. The term 'bioresidual' was coined to describe the extended environmental resistance from biological control and other forces possible when selective insecticides are deployed. The tangible benefits have been a 70% reduction in foliar insecticides, a >$200 million saving in control costs and yield, along with enhanced utilization of ecosystem services over the last 14 years.

  17. Ready to learn physics: a team-based learning model for first year university

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parappilly, Maria; Schmidt, Lisa; De Ritter, Samantha

    2015-09-01

    Team-based learning (TBL) is an established model of group work which aims to improve students' ability to apply discipline-related content. TBL consists of a readiness assurance process (RAP), student groups and application activities. While TBL has not been implemented widely in science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines, it has been effective in improving student learning in other disciplines. This paper describes the incorporation of TBL activities into a non-calculus based introductory level physics topic—Physics for the Modern World. Students were given pre-class preparation materials and an individual RAP online test before the workshops. The pre-workshop individual RAP test ensured that all students were exposed to concept-based questions before their workshops and motivated them to use the preparatory materials in readiness for the workshop. The students were placed into random teams and during the first part of the workshop, the teams went through a subset of the quiz questions (team RAP test) and in the remaining time, teams completed an in-class assignment. After the workshop students were allowed another attempt at the individual RAP test to see if their knowledge had improved. The ability of TBL to promote student learning of key concepts was evaluated by experiment using pre- and post- testing. The students’ perception of TBL was monitored by discussion posts and survey responses. Finally, the ability of TBL to support peer-peer interaction was evaluated by video analysis of the class. We found that the TBL process improved student learning; students did interact with each other in class; and the students had a positive view of TBL. To assess the transferability of this model to other topics, we conducted a comparison study with an environmental science topic which produced similar results. Our study supports the use of this TBL model in science topics.

  18. Models of Quality-Adjusted Life Years when Health varies over Time: Survey and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    2006-01-01

    time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard of the health state index, re-examining the role...... of the constant-proportional trade-off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken...

  19. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, reexamining the role of the constantproportional tradeoff condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination...

  20. Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platnick, Steven E.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

  1. Source of Kerr-Newman solution as supersymmetric bag model: 50 years of the problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burinskii, A.

    The ultra extreme Kerr-Newman (KN) solution(a = J/m >> m) produces the gravitational and EM fields of the electron. It has a naked singular ring - a topological defect which may be regularized by a solitonic source forming the pseudo-vacuum bubble filled by Higgs condensate in a supersymmetric superconducting state. Structure and stability of this source is determined by Bogomolnyi equations as a BPS-saturated soliton. The Principal Null Congruences of the KN solution determine consistent embedding of the Dirac equation, which acquires the mass from the Higgs condensate inside the soliton, indicating that this soliton forms a bag model. Shape of this bag is unambiguously determined by BPS-bound. The bag turns out to be flexible and takes the form of a very thin disk, which is completed by a ring-string along its sharp boundary. The ring-string traveling waves generate extra deformations of the bag creating a circulating singular pole. Bag model of the KN source integrates the dressed and pointlike electron in a bag-string-quark system, which removes the conflict between gravity and the point-like electron of the Dirac theory.

  2. Integrating critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry across a four-year dental curriculum: a model for independent learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Handoo, Nidhi; Solow, Catherine M; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; Finkelstein, Michael W

    2014-03-01

    Introducing critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry (EBD) content into an established dental curriculum can be a difficult and challenging process. Over the past three years, the University of Iowa College of Dentistry has developed and implemented a progressive four-year integrated critical thinking and EBD curriculum. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implementation process to make it available as a model for other dental schools contemplating introduction of critical thinking and EBD into their curricula. The newly designed curriculum built upon an existing problem-based learning foundation, which introduces critical thinking and the scientific literature in the D1 year, in order to expose students to the rationale and resources for practicing EBD in the D2 and D3 years and provide opportunities to practice critical thinking and apply the EBD five-step process in the D2, D3, and D4 years. All curricular content is online, and D3 and D4 EBD activities are integrated within existing clinical responsibilities. The curricular content, student resources, and student activities are described.

  3. Cosmology and Particle Physics beyond Standard Models Ten Years of the SEENET-MTP Network

    CERN Document Server

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Stojkovic, Dejan

    2014-01-01

    This publication - "Cosmology and Particle Physics beyond Standard Models" - is dedicated to the celebration of the tenth anniversary of the Southeastern European Network in Mathematical and Theoretical Physics (SEENET-MTP). As a Theme Collection, rather than a Monograph or Proceedings, this volume presents a number of reports and overviews, a few research papers and a short note. However, some of them are excellent examples of a nowadays increasingly deep interplay between particle physics and cosmology. Contributions span a wide range of topics in cosmology, particle physics, but also gravity, including the interface of these fields. The presented work is of both theoretical and experimental/ observational nature. The contributions represent recent progress in their respective fields: inflation, dark matter, neutrino physics, supersymmetry, collider physics, string theory, quantum gravity, black hole physics and massive gravity.

  4. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreau, Sebastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experi- ment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary...... factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes...

  5. Constraints on isocurvature models from the WMAP first-year data

    CERN Document Server

    Moodley, K; Dunkley, J; Ferreira, P G; Skordis, C

    2004-01-01

    We investigate the constraints imposed by the first-year WMAP CMB data extended to higher multipole by data from ACBAR, BOOMERANG, CBI and the VSA and by the LSS data from the 2dF galaxy redshift survey on the possible amplitude of primordial isocurvature modes. A flat universe with CDM and Lambda is assumed, and the baryon, CDM (CI), and neutrino density (NID) and velocity (NIV) isocurvature modes are considered. Constraints on the allowed isocurvature contributions are established from the data for various combinations of the adiabatic mode and one, two, and three isocurvature modes, with intermode cross-correlations allowed. Since baryon and CDM isocurvature are observationally virtually indistinguishable, these modes are not considered separately. We find that when just a single isocurvature mode is added, the present data allows an isocurvature fraction as large as 13+-6, 7+-4, and 13+-7 percent for adiabatic plus the CI, NID, and NIV modes, respectively. When two isocurvature modes plus the adiabatic mo...

  6. Water exchange through the Kerama Gap estimated with a 25-year Pacific HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Wenzheng; Yu, Fei; Nan, Feng

    2017-03-01

    V ariations in water exchange through the Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island) from 1979 to 2003 were estimated with the 0.08° Pacific HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). The model results show that the mean transport through the Kerama Gap (KGT) from the Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) was 2.1 Sv, which agrees well with the observed mean KGT (2.0 Sv) for 2009-2010. Over the time period examined, the monthly KGT varied from -10.9 Sv to 15.8 Sv and had a standard deviation of ± 5.0 Sv. The water mainly enters the ECS via the subsurface layer (300-500 m) along the northeastern slope of the Kerama Gap and mainly flows out of the ECS into the southwest of the Kerama Gap. The seasonal and interannual variations of the KGT and the Kuroshio upstream transport were negatively correlated. The Kuroshio upstream transport was largest in summer and smallest in autumn while the KGT was smallest in summer (1.02 Sv) and largest in spring (2.94 Sv) and autumn (2.44 Sv). The seasonal and interannual variations in the Kuroshio downstream (across the PN-line) transport differed significantly from the Kuroshio upstream transport but corresponded well with the KGT and the sum of the transport through the Kerama Gap and the Kuroshio upstream, which indicates that information about variation in the KGT is important for determining variation in the Kuroshio transport along the PN-line.

  7. Modeling studies on the changes of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific during the last 100 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Intensity index series of Subtropical High over the Western Pacific was constructed according to modeling results by using of CCM3.6 atmospheric model with climatologically SST forcing for 30 years, and with observed SST forcing from 1900 to 2000. The index series constructed by modeling closely correlated to the observations for 1951-1999 (c.c. 0.72) and to the statistically reconstructed one for 1900-1950 (c.c. 0.51). The index series for 1900-1999 showed significant 80 a and 40 a periodicity. A minimum of persistence in seasonal variations of the index occurred in Autumn, which was called "Autumn Barrier". It may relate to the "Spring Barrier", found in the seasonal variations of SST over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. The increasing trend shown in the index series for the 20th century may associate with the global warming caused by enhancement of greenhouse effect.

  8. Socially valued role models 25 years after the fall of Communism: a quantitative study on students and mass media exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Duduciuc

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available How young people appreciate certain public personalities and interpersonal relations in respect with their professional path have been a topic of interest among social science and communication scholars. The aim of this article consists in investigating the relation between media effects and Romanian students’ role models in lines of cultivation theory (G. Gerbner et al., 1977. On this purpose, 188 students respond to a questionnaire regarding exposure to media, the prevalent role models valued by them and their views on life achievements conveyed by the media and society at large: teachers, celebrities, artists, politicians, businessmen, priests, parents. The results showed that students relate more to role models which are contextually close to them (parents, siblings than those frequently covered by the media (politicians, showbiz celebrities. Based on these results, we stated that 25 year after the fall of communism Romanian young people do not find a contemporary personality to value as a representative for their social identity.

  9. A New Geomagnetic Field Model for the last 2k years based on high quality archaeomagnetic and volcanic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campuzano, Saioa A.; Gómez-Paccard, Miriam; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Osete, María Luisa

    2016-04-01

    The knowledge of the ancient Earth's magnetic field is crucial to understand its origin and future evolution. In this context, the palaeomagnetic studies provide useful information about the past geomagnetic field registered in rocks, lava flows, sediments or archaeological materials. The continuous upgrade of the palaeomagnetic database during the last decade has allowed the generation of global geomagnetic field models based on different palaeomagnetic data and techniques (such as the SHA.DIF.14K, ARCH3K.1, CALS3K.4b, pfm9k.1a models, among others). Some recent studies have pointed out that the archaeointensity database might not be reliable enough, by observing high scatter in the records. Here, we present a new global geomagnetic model for the last 2000 years, SHAQ2K, based on high quality archaeomagnetic and volcanic intensity data. For this purpose we classify the palaeointensity data in two quality categories following widely accepted palaeomagnetic criteria based on the methodology used during the laboratory treatment of the samples and on the number of specimens finally used to calculate the mean intensities. Respect to the modelling process, we use the spherical harmonic analysis in space and cubic b-splines in time, also applying a spatial and temporal regularization which minimizes the energy of the geomagnetic field at the core-mantle boundary. The implications of the differences between this new model and other previously published global geomagnetic models are discussed.

  10. Bridging the gap between textbook and maternity patient: a nurse-developed teaching model for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooksey, Nancy Rumsey

    2010-12-01

    Providing more opportunities for first-year medical students to interact with patients in clinical settings is a current discussion topic in medical student education reform. Early clinical experience helps students bridge the gap between textbook and patient while observing patient-centered care, and serves as a first step for students to develop the skills needed to work cooperatively as members of a multidisciplinary health care team. The author developed a model to provide perinatal education to first-year medical students, consistent with the concept of interprofessional education. Primarily first-year medical students participated in the nurse-developed education model, a component of a noncredit extracurricular, student-run perinatal program at a Midwestern university medical center. Students were placed at the bedsides of hospitalized women to provide support and education to them during perinatal procedures, labor, childbirth, and cesarean delivery. A total of 350 students participated over a period of 13 school calendar years. Students remarked that participation in the program reinforced the importance of their concurrent anatomy and physiology classes. They observed interdependence and cooperation among the members of the health care team caring for women, and their evaluations of their experiences at the bedside were highly positive. Women consistently expressed appreciation for the additional individualized attention and education received from our student and nurse team. Nurses can enhance the learning of first-year medical students in the maternity care clinical setting. This nurse-developed education program provided students with a variety of vivid clinical experiences with maternity patients. © 2010, Copyright the Author. Journal compilation © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Development of NIR calibration models to assess year-to-year variation in total non-structural carbohydrates in grasses using PLSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shetty, Nisha; Gislum, René; Jensen, Anne Mette Dahl

    2012-01-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used in combination with chemometrics to quantify total nonstructural carbohydrates (TNC) in grass samples in order to overcome year-to-year variation. A total of 1103 above-ground plant and root samples were collected from different field and pot experiments ...

  12. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5–6 year olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J.; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L.; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. Objective This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5–6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. Methods 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5–6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Results Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Conclusions Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5–6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. PMID:26647364

  13. Smoking Behavior Based on Stages of Change Model Among Iranian Male Students in 2009-2010 Academic Year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Sharifirad

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: According to the stages of change model, individuals are in the different stages of smoking behavior. The aim of current study was to analyze the smoking behavior based on stages of change model among the students of six Iranian universities during 2009-2010 academic year.Materials and Method: This is a descriptive study using convenient sample method (N=578. Data gathering instrument was the short form questionnaire based on stages of change model. Descriptive and inferential statistics were applied using SPSS software.Results: Subjects ages ranged between 18-49 years, with a mean age of 23.2±2.3. Average age for beginning smoking was 18.4±3.2; the duration of smoking was 4.4±3.3 years and the mean number of cigarette smoking per day was 9.09±7.4. 268 cases (46.4% and 83(14.4% announced half and more than half of their friends are current smoker, respectively. 321 people (55.5% were in precontemplation, 109 people (18.9% in contemplation, 99 people (17.1% in preparation, 27 people (4.7% in action and 22 people (3.8% in maintenance stage. Conclusion: About three quarter of the subjects were in precontemplation and contemplation stage and according to their age situation and known effect of smoking on their health it is necessary to encourage them smoke cessation intervention based on the stages of change model constructs. Meanwhile, 17.8% were in preparation stage and it’s a good opportunity for smoking cessation programs

  14. Technology and Cost of the Model Year (MY) 2007 Toyota Camry HEV Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-09-30

    The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) provides research and development (R&D) support to the Department of Energy on issues related to the cost and performance of hybrid vehicles. ORNL frequently benchmarks its own research against commercially available hybrid components currently used in the market. In 2005 we completed a detailed review of the cost of the second generation Prius hybrid. This study examines the new 2007 Camry hybrid model for changes in technology and cost relative to the Prius. The work effort involved a detailed review of the Camry hybrid and the system control strategy to identify the hybrid components used in the drive train. Section 2 provides this review while Section 3 presents our detailed evaluation of the specific drive train components and their cost estimates. Section 3 also provides a summary of the total electrical drive train cost for the Camry hybrid vehicle and contrasts these estimates to the costs for the second generation Prius that we estimated in 2005. Most of the information on cost and performance were derived from meetings with the technical staff of Toyota, Nissan, and some key Tier I suppliers like Hitachi and Panasonic Electric Vehicle Energy (PEVE) and we thank these companies for their kind cooperation.

  15. Multiple Determinants of Externalizing Behavior in 5-Year-Olds: A Longitudinal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smeekens, Sanny; van Bakel, Hedwig J. A.

    2007-01-01

    In a community sample of 116 children, assessments of parent-child interaction, parent-child attachment, and various parental, child, and contextual characteristics at 15 and 28 months and at age 5 were used to predict externalizing behavior at age 5, as rated by parents and teachers. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis and path analysis yielded a significant longitudinal model for the prediction of age 5 externalizing behavior, with independent contributions from the following predictors: child sex, partner support reported by the caregiver, disorganized infant-parent attachment at 15 months, child anger proneness at 28 months, and one of the two parent-child interaction factors observed at 28 months, namely negative parent-child interactions. The other, i.e., a lack of effective guidance, predicted externalizing problems only in highly anger-prone children. Furthermore, mediated pathways of influence were found for the parent-child interaction at 15 months (via disorganized attachment) and parental ego-resiliency (via negative parent-child interaction at 28 months). PMID:17243016

  16. Building information modelling (BIM) after ten years: Malaysian construction players’ perception of BIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latiffi, A. Ahmad; Brahim, J.; Fathi, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    Building Information Modelling (BIM) concept has expanded widely in many countries for more than a decade with its role of improving current practices in construction projects. However, the understanding of BIM differs among construction players, depending on how construction players utilize the concept in their projects. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the understanding of BIM concept among construction players in the Malaysian construction industry. A literature review on BIM concept and semi-structured interviews with construction players in BIM such as client, civil and structural (C&S) engineer and mechanical and electrical (M&E) engineer, quantity surveyor (QS), contractor, facilities manager and BIM consultant have been conducted in order to achieve this study’s the aim. The results show that the understanding of BIM concept among the construction players is limited to BIM as a process and technology. It is important for the construction players to improve their understanding of BIM as it can be used to enhance performance and productivity of construction projects.

  17. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  18. A palaeobiogeographic model for biotic diversification within Amazonia over the past three million years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribas, Camila C; Aleixo, Alexandre; Nogueira, Afonso C R; Miyaki, Cristina Y; Cracraft, Joel

    2012-02-22

    Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain high species diversity in Amazonia, but few generalizations have emerged. In part, this has arisen from the scarcity of rigorous tests for mechanisms promoting speciation, and from major uncertainties about palaeogeographic events and their spatial and temporal associations with diversification. Here, we investigate the environmental history of Amazonia using a phylogenetic and biogeographic analysis of trumpeters (Aves: Psophia), which are represented by species in each of the vertebrate areas of endemism. Their relationships reveal an unforeseen 'complete' time-slice of Amazonian diversification over the past 3.0 Myr. We employ this temporally calibrated phylogeny to test competing palaeogeographic hypotheses. Our results are consistent with the establishment of the current Amazonian drainage system at approximately 3.0-2.0 Ma and predict the temporal pattern of major river formation over Plio-Pleistocene times. We propose a palaeobiogeographic model for the last 3.0 Myr of Amazonian history that has implications for understanding patterns of endemism, the temporal history of Amazonian diversification and mechanisms promoting speciation. The history of Psophia, in combination with new geological evidence, provides the strongest direct evidence supporting a role for river dynamics in Amazonian diversification, and the absence of such a role for glacial climate cycles and refugia.

  19. EARLINET dust observations vs. BSC-DREAM8b modeled profiles: 12-year-long systematic comparison at Potenza, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mona, L.; Papagiannopoulos, N.; Basart, S.; Baldasano, J.; Binietoglou, I.; Cornacchia, C.; Pappalardo, G.

    2014-08-01

    In this paper, we report the first systematic comparison of 12-year modeled dust extinction profiles vs. Raman lidar measurements. We use the BSC-DREAM8b model, one of the most widely used dust regional models in the Mediterranean, and Potenza EARLINET lidar profiles for Saharan dust cases, the largest one-site database of dust extinction profiles. A total of 310 dust cases were compared for the May 2000-July 2012 period. The model reconstructs the measured layers well: profiles are correlated within 5% of significance for 60% of the cases and the dust layer center of mass as measured by lidar and modeled by BSC-DREAM8b differ on average 0.3 ± 1.0 km. Events with a dust optical depth lower than 0.1 account for 70% of uncorrelated profiles. Although there is good agreement in terms of profile shape and the order of magnitude of extinction values, the model overestimates the occurrence of dust layer top above 10 km. Comparison with extinction profiles measured by the Raman lidar shows that BSC-DREAM8b typically underestimates the dust extinction coefficient, in particular below 3 km. Lowest model-observation differences (below 17%) correspond to a lidar ratio at 532 nm and Ångström exponent at 355/532 nm of 60 ± 13 and 0.1 ± 0.6 sr, respectively. These are in agreement with values typically observed and modeled for pure desert dust. However, the highest differences (higher than 85%) are typically related to greater Ångström values (0.5 ± 0.6), denoting smaller particles. All these aspects indicate that the level of agreement decreases with an increase in mixing/modification processes.

  20. Evaluation of the effectiveness of 3D vascular stereoscopic models in anatomy instruction for first year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Dongmei; Wilson, Timothy D; Rockhold, Robin W; Lehman, Michael N; Lynch, James C

    2017-01-01

    The head and neck region is one of the most complex areas featured in the medical gross anatomy curriculum. The effectiveness of using three-dimensional (3D) models to teach anatomy is a topic of much discussion in medical education research. However, the use of 3D stereoscopic models of the head and neck circulation in anatomy education has not been previously studied in detail. This study investigated whether 3D stereoscopic models created from computed tomographic angiography (CTA) data were efficacious teaching tools for the head and neck vascular anatomy. The test subjects were first year medical students at the University of Mississippi Medical Center. The assessment tools included: anatomy knowledge tests (prelearning session knowledge test and postlearning session knowledge test), mental rotation tests (spatial ability; presession MRT and postsession MRT), and a satisfaction survey. Results were analyzed using a Wilcoxon rank-sum test and linear regression analysis. A total of 39 first year medical students participated in the study. The results indicated that all students who were exposed to the stereoscopic 3D vascular models in 3D learning sessions increased their ability to correctly identify the head and neck vascular anatomy. Most importantly, for students with low-spatial ability, 3D learning sessions improved postsession knowledge scores to a level comparable to that demonstrated by students with high-spatial ability indicating that the use of 3D stereoscopic models may be particularly valuable to these students with low-spatial ability. Anat Sci Educ 10: 34-45. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists. © 2016 American Association of Anatomists.

  1. Modeling of 137Cs migration in soils using an 80-year soil archive: role of fertilizers and agricultural amendments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monna, F; van Oort, F; Hubert, P; Dominik, J; Bolte, J; Loizeau, J-L; Labanowski, J; Lamri, J; Petit, C; Le Roux, G; Chateau, C

    2009-01-01

    An 80-year soil archive, the 42-plot experimental design at the INRA in Versailles (France), is used here to study long-term contamination by 137Cs atmospheric deposition and the fate of this radioisotope when associated with various agricultural practices: fallow land, KCl, NH4(NO3), superphosphate fertilizers, horse manure and lime amendments. The pertinence of a simple box model, where radiocaesium is supposed to move downward by convectional mechanisms, is checked using samples from control plots which had been neither amended, nor cultivated since 1928. This simple model presents the advantage of depending on only two parameters: alpha, a proportional factor allowing the historical atmospheric 137Cs fluxes to be reconstructed locally, and k, an annual loss coefficient from the plow horizon. Another pseudo-unknown is however necessary to run the model: the shape of historical 137Cs deposition, but this function can be easily computed by merging several curves previously established by other surveys. A loss of approximately 1.5% per year from the plow horizon, combined with appropriate fluxes, provides good concordance between simulated and measured values. In the 0-25cm horizon, the residence half time is found to be approximately 18yr (including both migration and radioactive decay). Migration rate constants are also calculated for some plots receiving continuous long-term agricultural treatments. Comparison with the control plots reveals significant influence of amendments on 137Cs mobility in these soils developed from a unique genoform.

  2. Modeling of {sup 137}Cs migration in soils using an 80-year soil archive: role of fertilizers and agricultural amendments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monna, F. [UMR 5594 CNRS-Universite de Bourgogne, Centre des Sciences de la Terre, ARTeHIS, Bat. Gabriel, F-21000 Dijon (France)], E-mail: Fabrice.Monna@u-bourgogne.fr; Oort, F. van [UR 251-PESSAC, INRA, RD 10, F-78026 Versailles Cedex (France); Hubert, P. [Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires de Bordeaux-Gradignan, BP 120, Le Haut-Vigneau, F-33175 GRADIGNAN Cedex (France); Dominik, J. [Institut F.-A. Forel, Universite de Geneve, 10 route de Suisse, CH-1290 Versoix (Switzerland); Bolte, J. [UMR 7090, Equipe Combinatoire et Optimisation, Universite Paris 06, 4 Pl Jussieu, F-75252 Paris 05 (France); Loizeau, J.-L. [Institut F.-A. Forel, Universite de Geneve, 10 route de Suisse, CH-1290 Versoix (Switzerland); Labanowski, J. [UMR 6008, CNRS - Universite de Poitiers-ESIP, Laboratoire de Chimie et Microbiologie de l' Eau (ex LCEE), 40 avenue du recteur Pineau, F-86022 Poitiers (France); Lamri, J.; Petit, C. [UMR 5594 CNRS-Universite de Bourgogne, Centre des Sciences de la Terre, ARTeHIS, Bat. Gabriel, F-21000 Dijon (France); Le Roux, G. [URAP, Departement de Geologie, B18, Sart-Tilman, Allee du 6 Aout, B-4000 Liege (Belgium); Chateau, C. [Centre des Sciences de la Terre, Universite de Bourgogne, Bat. Gabriel, F-21000 Dijon (France)

    2009-01-15

    An 80-year soil archive, the 42-plot experimental design at the INRA in Versailles (France), is used here to study long-term contamination by {sup 137}Cs atmospheric deposition and the fate of this radioisotope when associated with various agricultural practices: fallow land, KCl, NH{sub 4}(NO{sub 3}), superphosphate fertilizers, horse manure and lime amendments. The pertinence of a simple box model, where radiocaesium is supposed to move downward by convectional mechanisms, is checked using samples from control plots which had been neither amended, nor cultivated since 1928. This simple model presents the advantage of depending on only two parameters: {alpha}, a proportional factor allowing the historical atmospheric {sup 137}Cs fluxes to be reconstructed locally, and k, an annual loss coefficient from the plow horizon. Another pseudo-unknown is however necessary to run the model: the shape of historical {sup 137}Cs deposition, but this function can be easily computed by merging several curves previously established by other surveys. A loss of {approx}1.5% per year from the plow horizon, combined with appropriate fluxes, provides good concordance between simulated and measured values. In the 0-25 cm horizon, the residence half time is found to be {approx}18 yr (including both migration and radioactive decay). Migration rate constants are also calculated for some plots receiving continuous long-term agricultural treatments. Comparison with the control plots reveals significant influence of amendments on {sup 137}Cs mobility in these soils developed from a unique genoform.

  3. Analysis of the mid-latitude weather regimes in the 200-year control integration of the SINTEX model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Navarra

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent results indicate that climate predictions require models which can simulate accurately natural circulation regimes and their associated variability. The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether (and how a coupled model can simulate the real world weather regimes. A 200-year control integration of a coupled GCM (the «SINTEX model» is considered. The output analysed consists of monthly mean values of Northern Hemisphere extended winter (November to April 500-hPa geopotential heights. An Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF analysis is first applied in order to define a reduced phase space based on the leading modes of variability. Therefore the principal component PDF in the reduced phase space spanned by two leading EOFs is computed. Based on a PDF analysis in the phase space spanned by the leading EOF1 and REOF2, substantial evidence of the nongaussian regime structure of the SINTEX northern winter circulation is found. The model Probability Density Function (PDF exhibits three maxima. The 500-hPa height geographical patterns of these density maxima are strongly reminiscent of well-documented Northern Hemisphere weather regimes. This result indicates that the SINTEX model can not only simulate the non-gaussian structure of the climatic attractor, but is also able to reproduce the natural modes of variability of the system.

  4. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hed Myrberg, Ida; Omerov, Pernilla; Steineck, Gunnar; Nyberg, Ullakarin

    2016-01-01

    Background Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose. Method During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss. Results In total 666/915 (73%) participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766), but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84); sick-leave (OR = 2.81) or unemployment (OR = 1.64); psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64), or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96); suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54); with non-legal guardianship during the child’s upbringing (OR = 0.48); and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22) found as protective. Conclusions Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but

  5. Aggression, Sibling Antagonism, and Theory of Mind During the First Year of Siblinghood: A Developmental Cascade Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ju-Hyun; Volling, Brenda L; Lane, Jonathan D; Wellman, Henry M

    2016-07-01

    A developmental cascade model was tested to examine longitudinal associations among firstborn children's aggression, theory of mind (ToM), and antagonism toward their younger sibling during the 1st year of siblinghood. Aggression and ToM were assessed before the birth of a sibling and 4 and 12 months after the birth, and antagonism was examined at 4 and 12 months in a sample of 208 firstborn children (initial Mage  = 30 months, 56% girls) from primarily European American, middle-class families. Firstborns' aggression consistently predicted high sibling antagonism both directly and through poorer ToM. Results highlight the importance of examining longitudinal influences across behavioral, social-cognitive, and relational factors that are closely intertwined even from the early years of life.

  6. Multi-model ensemble simulations of tropospheric NO2 compared with GOME retrievals for the year 2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. C. van Noije

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions from biomass burning based on the 1997–2002 average carbon emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED. Model output is analyzed at 10:30 local time, close to the overpass time of the ERS-2 satellite, and collocated with the measurements to account for sampling biases due to incomplete spatiotemporal coverage of the instrument. We assessed the importance of different contributions to the sampling bias: correlations on seasonal time scale give rise to a positive bias of 30–50% in the retrieved annual means over regions dominated by emissions from biomass burning. Over the industrial regions of the eastern United States, Europe and eastern China the retrieved annual means have a negative bias with significant contributions (between –25% and +10% of the NO2 column resulting from correlations on time scales from a day to a month. We present global maps of modeled and retrieved annual mean NO2 column densities, together with the corresponding ensemble means and standard deviations for models and retrievals. The spatial correlation between the individual models and retrievals are high, typically in the range 0.81–0.93 after smoothing the data to a common resolution. On average the models underestimate the retrievals in industrial regions, especially over eastern China and over the Highveld region of South Africa, and overestimate the retrievals in regions dominated by biomass burning during the dry season. The discrepancy over South America south of the Amazon disappears when we use the GFED emissions specific to the year 2000. The seasonal cycle is analyzed in detail for eight different continental regions. Over regions dominated by

  7. Multi-model ensemble simulations of tropospheric NO2 compared with GOME retrievals for the year 2000

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Noije, T. P. C.; Eskes, H. J.; Dentener, F. J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M. G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C. S.; Bergmann, D. J.; Bey, I.; Boersma, K. F.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Drevet, J.; Fiore, A. M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D. A.; Horowitz, L. W.; Isaksen, I. S. A.; Krol, M. C.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lawrence, M. G.; Martin, R. V.; Montanaro, V.; Müller, J.-F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M. J.; Pyle, J. A.; Richter, A.; Rodriguez, J. M.; Savage, N. H.; Strahan, S. E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; van Roozendael, M.

    2006-07-01

    We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions from biomass burning based on the 1997-2002 average carbon emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). Model output is analyzed at 10:30 local time, close to the overpass time of the ERS-2 satellite, and collocated with the measurements to account for sampling biases due to incomplete spatiotemporal coverage of the instrument. We assessed the importance of different contributions to the sampling bias: correlations on seasonal time scale give rise to a positive bias of 30-50% in the retrieved annual means over regions dominated by emissions from biomass burning. Over the industrial regions of the eastern United States, Europe and eastern China the retrieved annual means have a negative bias with significant contributions (between -25% and +10% of the NO2 column) resulting from correlations on time scales from a day to a month. We present global maps of modeled and retrieved annual mean NO2 column densities, together with the corresponding ensemble means and standard deviations for models and retrievals. The spatial correlation between the individual models and retrievals are high, typically in the range 0.81-0.93 after smoothing the data to a common resolution. On average the models underestimate the retrievals in industrial regions, especially over eastern China and over the Highveld region of South Africa, and overestimate the retrievals in regions dominated by biomass burning during the dry season. The discrepancy over South America south of the Amazon disappears when we use the GFED emissions specific to the year 2000. The seasonal cycle is analyzed in detail for eight different continental regions. Over regions dominated by biomass burning, the timing of

  8. A directional Secular Variation Curve for Greece for the last 4500 years: Comparison with regional and global geomagnetic field models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marco, E.; Tema, E.; Lanos, P.; Kondopoulou, D.

    2009-12-01

    A total of 64 Greek archaeomagnetic directional data have been used for the establishment of the variation of the Earth’s magnetic field in Greece over the past 4500 years. Most of the data come from archaeological material but some data from Santorini lava flows are also included. The data ages range from Minoan times (~2500 BC) up to the last century with a gap around 10th to 6th century BC. All data have been relocated to Athens (37.97° N, 23.72° E) using the virtual geomagnetic pole method. Data coming from direct measurements available in Greece for the last four centuries have been also added. The secular variation (SV) curves for declination and inclination have been obtained using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. For comparison, the dataset has been also analysed using the bi-variate moving average window technique with 150 years time window shifted by 75 years. The obtained smoothed curves accompanied by a 95 % confidence envelope are compared with archaeomagnetic data from Mediterranean area and with SV curves from nearby countries. The Greek curves have also been compared with the predictions of the SCHA.DIF.3K regional and the CALS7K and ARCH3K global geomagnetic field models. Despite the differences recognised between these models, the Greek archaeomagnetic SV curve is in reasonably good agreement with their basic trends. The proposed directional SV curve can contribute, together with the intensity SV curve previously published for Greece, to the reliable archaeomagnetic dating of Greek artefacts based on the full description of the Earth’s magnetic field (declination, inclination, intensity). It is clear that the continuous update of the dataset with new results from well-dated archaeological material will increase the precision of the SV curve, especially for the time periods poorly covered by data.

  9. Assessing a 1500-year record of Atlantic hurricane activity from South Andros Island, the Bahamas, using modeled hurricane climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, E. J.; Donnelly, J. P.; Emanuel, K.; Wiman, C.; van Hengstum, P. J.; Sullivan, R.; Winkler, T. S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones can cause substantial loss of life and economic resources in coastal areas. In the current changing climate, it is of critical importance for society to understand any links between hurricane activity and climactic conditions. Unfortunately, historical tropical cyclone records are too short and incomplete to constrain how climate controls cyclone activity or to accurately quantify the risk of such storms to local human populations. Hurricane-induced deposits preserved in sediment cores can offer records of past hurricane activity stretching over thousands of years. Here we present a 1500 year annually resolved record of the frequency of intense hurricane events in a blue hole (AM4) on South Andros Island on the Great Bahama Bank. This carbonate island in the western North Atlantic Ocean is positioned along the trackway of many storms originating in the Caribbean and Atlantic basins. The record is corroborated by cores collected from three other blue holes near AM4. Over the past 1500 years, there have been periods of elevated hurricane activity from 750 to 950 CE, 1150 to 1300 CE and 1550 to 1850 CE. The statistical significance of this sedimentary record is assessed utilizing a set of synthetic storms generated from a previously published statistical deterministic hurricane model. The model simulates climatological conditions from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset, and the CMIP5 MPI model for the 20th century calibration (1850-2005 CE), and the millennial simulation (850-1849 CE). The average reoccurrence rates of hurricanes passing within 100 km of AM4 under each simulation are 1.06, 0.62, and 0.61 storms per year respectively. Using each climatology, thousands of hurricane induced deposits for the site are generated based on a random draw of these storms, a wind speed threshold for deposit, and a temporal resolution given the sedimentation rate of approximately 1 cm/yr at the site. Overall, the results of this study offer information on changes

  10. A MODEL TO EVALUATE 100-YEAR ENERGY-MIX SCENARIOS TO FACILITATE DEEP DECARBONIZATION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Adkisson, Mary A [ORNL; Qualls, A L [ORNL

    2016-08-01

    The Southeast United States consumes approximately one billion megawatt-hours of electricity annually; roughly two-thirds from carbon dioxide (CO2) emitting sources. The balance is produced by non-CO2 emitting sources: nuclear power, hydroelectric power, and other renewables. Approximately 40% of the total CO2 emissions come from the electric grid. The CO2 emitting sources, coal, natural gas, and petroleum, produce approximately 372 million metric tons of CO2 annually. The rest is divided between the transportation sector (36%), the industrial sector (20%), the residential sector (3%), and the commercial sector (2%). An Energy Mix Modeling Analysis (EMMA) tool was developed to evaluate 100-year energy mix strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the southeast. Current energy sector data was gathered and used to establish a 2016 reference baseline. The spreadsheet-based calculation runs 100-year scenarios based on current nuclear plant expiration dates, assumed electrical demand changes from the grid, assumed renewable power increases and efficiency gains, and assumed rates of reducing coal generation and deployment of new nuclear reactors. Within the model, natural gas electrical generation is calculated to meet any demand not met by other sources. Thus, natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source that produces less CO2 than coal until non-CO2 emitting sources can be brought online. The annual production of CO2 and spent nuclear fuel and the natural gas consumed are calculated and summed. A progression of eight preliminary scenarios show that nuclear power can substantially reduce or eliminate demand for natural gas within 100 years if it is added at a rate of only 1000 MWe per year. Any increases in renewable energy or efficiency gains can offset the need for nuclear power. However, using nuclear power to reduce CO2 will result in significantly more spent fuel. More efficient advanced reactors can only marginally reduce the amount of spent fuel generated in

  11. Analysis of the eight-year trend in ozone depletion from empirical models of solar backscattered ultraviolet instrument degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, J. R.; Hudson, R. D.; Serafino, G.

    1990-01-01

    Arguments are presented showing that the basic empirical model of the solar backscatter UV (SBUV) instrument degradation used by Cebula et al. (1988) in their analysis of the SBUV data is likely to lead to an incorrect estimate of the ozone trend. A correction factor is given as a function of time and altitude that brings the SBUV data into approximate agreement with the SAGE, SME, and Dobson network ozone trends. It is suggested that the currently archived SBUV ozone data should be used with caution for periods of analysis exceeding 1 yr, since it is likely that the yearly decreases contained in the archived data are too large.

  12. Ten years of a model of aesthetic appreciation and aesthetic judgments : The aesthetic episode - Developments and challenges in empirical aesthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leder, Helmut; Nadal, Marcos

    2014-11-01

    About a decade ago, psychology of the arts started to gain momentum owing to a number of drives: technological progress improved the conditions under which art could be studied in the laboratory, neuroscience discovered the arts as an area of interest, and new theories offered a more comprehensive look at aesthetic experiences. Ten years ago, Leder, Belke, Oeberst, and Augustin (2004) proposed a descriptive information-processing model of the components that integrate an aesthetic episode. This theory offered explanations for modern art's large number of individualized styles, innovativeness, and for the diverse aesthetic experiences it can stimulate. In addition, it described how information is processed over the time course of an aesthetic episode, within and over perceptual, cognitive and emotional components. Here, we review the current state of the model, and its relation to the major topics in empirical aesthetics today, including the nature of aesthetic emotions, the role of context, and the neural and evolutionary foundations of art and aesthetics.

  13. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-01-01

    Computational phantoms are commonly used in internal radiation dosimetry to assess the amount and distribution pattern of energy deposited in various parts of the human body from different internal radiation sources. Radiation dose assessments are commonly performed on predetermined reference...... computational phantoms while the argument for individualized patient-specific radiation dosimetry exists. This study aims to evaluate the influence of body habitus on internal dosimetry and to quantify the uncertainties in dose estimation correlated with the use of fixed reference models. The 5-year-old IT...... absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body weight, standing height and sitting height have considerable effects on human internal dosimetry. Radiation dose calculations...

  14. Frequentist comparison of CMB local extrema statistics in the five-year WMAP data with two anisotropic cosmological models

    CERN Document Server

    Hou, Zhen; Górski, K M; Groeneboom, N E; Eriksen, H K

    2009-01-01

    We present local extrema studies of two models that introduce a preferred direction into the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature field. In particular, we make a frequentist comparison of the one- and two-point statistics for the dipole modulation and ACW models with data from the five-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP). This analysis is motivated by previously revealed anomalies in the WMAP data, and particularly the difference in the statistical nature of the temperature anisotropies when analysed in hemispherical partitions. The analysis of the one-point statistics indicates that the previously determined hemispherical variance difficulties can be apparently overcome by a dipole modulation field, but new inconsistencies arise if the mean and the l-dependence of the statistics are considered. The two-point correlation functions of the local extrema, the temperature pair product and the point-point spatial pair-count, demonstrate that the impact of such a modulation is to over...

  15. Day of the year-based prediction of horizontal global solar radiation by a neural network auto-regressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gani, Abdullah; Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Khorasanizadeh, Hossein; Seyed Danesh, Amir; Piri, Jamshid; Ismail, Zuraini; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-08-01

    The availability of accurate solar radiation data is essential for designing as well as simulating the solar energy systems. In this study, by employing the long-term daily measured solar data, a neural network auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NN-ARX) is applied to predict daily horizontal global solar radiation using day of the year as the sole input. The prime aim is to provide a convenient and precise way for rapid daily global solar radiation prediction, for the stations and their immediate surroundings with such an observation, without utilizing any meteorological-based inputs. To fulfill this, seven Iranian cities with different geographical locations and solar radiation characteristics are considered as case studies. The performance of NN-ARX is compared against the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results prove that day of the year-based prediction of daily global solar radiation by both NN-ARX and ANFIS models would be highly feasible owing to the accurate predictions attained. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis indicates the superiority of NN-ARX over ANFIS. In fact, the NN-ARX model represents high potential to follow the measured data favorably for all cities. For the considered cities, the attained statistical indicators of mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination for the NN-ARX models are in the ranges of 0.44-0.61 kWh/m2, 0.50-0.71 kWh/m2, and 0.78-0.91, respectively.

  16. What is the role of histone H1 heterogeneity? A functional model emerges from a 50 year mystery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Missag Hagop Parseghian

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available For the past 50 years, understanding the function of histone H1 heterogeneity has been mired in confusion and contradiction. Part of the reason for this is the lack of a working model that tries to explain the large body of data that has been collected about the H1 subtypes so far. In this review, a global model is described largely based on published data from the author and other researchers over the past 20 years. The intrinsic disorder built into H1 protein structure is discussed to help the reader understand that these histones are multi-conformational and adaptable to interactions with different targets. We discuss the role of each structural section of H1 (as we currently understand it, but we focus on the H1's C-terminal domain and its effect on each subtype's affinity, mobility and compaction of chromatin. We review the multiple ways these characteristics have been measured from circular dichroism to FRAP analysis, which has added to the sometimes contradictory assumptions made about each subtype. Based on a tabulation of these measurements, we then organize the H1 variants according to their ability to condense chromatin and produce nucleosome repeat lengths amenable to that compaction. This subtype variation generates a continuum of different chromatin states allowing for fine regulatory control and some overlap in the event one or two subtypes are lost to mutation. We also review the myriad of disparate observations made about each subtype, both somatic and germline specific ones, that lend support to the proposed model. Finally, to demonstrate its adaptability as new data further refines our understanding of H1 subtypes, we show how the model can be applied to experimental observations of telomeric heterochromatin in aging cells.

  17. Modeling and Analysis of the Wind-Waves Field Variability in the Indian Ocean During 1998-2009 Years

    CERN Document Server

    Polnikov, V G; Sannasiraj, S A; Sundar, V

    2011-01-01

    To calculate the wind-waves in the Indian Ocean (IO), the wind field for the period from 1998 to 2009 was used, obtained from the NCEP/NOAA archive, and numerical model WAM (Cycle-4) was applied, modified by the new source function proposed in Polnikov (2005). Based on buoy data for the Indian Ocean, the fitting of the modified model WAM was done, which provides the win in accuracy of calculations on 35%, in comparison with the original model. All the further calculations of the wave fields in IO were made for these model settings. At the first stage, the analysis of the simulation results involves a) mapping the fields of the significant wave height and the wave energy , calculated with different scales of averaging in time T and space R; b) estimating the fields of seasonal, annual and long-term variability; and c) determining the 12-year trend of the annually averaged fields. The analysis was carried out taking into account the previously introduced zoning the ocean area, provided by the spatial inhomogen...

  18. A 7-year dataset for driving and evaluating snow models at an Arctic site (Sodankylä, Finland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Essery, Richard; Kontu, Anna; Lemmetyinen, Juha; Dumont, Marie; Ménard, Cécile B.

    2016-06-01

    Datasets derived from measurements at Sodankylä, Finland, for driving and evaluating snow models are presented. This is the first time that such complete datasets have been made available for a site in the Arctic. The continuous October 2007-September 2014 driving data comprise all of the meteorological variables required as inputs for physically based snow models at hourly intervals: incoming solar and longwave radiation, snowfall and rainfall rates, air temperature, humidity, wind speed and atmospheric pressure. Two versions of the driving data are provided: one using radiation and wind speed measurements made above the height of the trees around the clearing where the evaluation data were measured and one with adjustments for the influence of the trees on conditions close to the ground. The available evaluation data include automatic and manual measurements of bulk snow depth and snow water equivalent, and profiles of snow temperature, snow density and soil temperature. A physically based snow model is driven and evaluated with the datasets to illustrate their utility. Shading by trees is found to extend the duration of both modelled and observed snow cover on the ground by several days a year.

  19. 40 CFR 86.098-10 - Emission standards for 1998 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Otto-cycle heavy-duty engine. (d) Every manufacturer of new motor vehicle engines subject to the... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.098-10 Section 86.098-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.098-10 Emission standards for 1998 and later model year Otto-cycle...

  20. 40 CFR 86.008-10 - Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... exceed 50 percent of the manufacturer's U.S.-directed production of heavy-duty Otto-cycle motor vehicle... heavy-duty Otto-cycle motor vehicle engines for model year 2008. (2)(i) Manufacturers certifying engines... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.008-10 Section 86.008-10 Protection...

  1. 40 CFR 86.099-10 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.099-10 Section 86.099-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.099-10 Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty... described in this section do not apply to Otto-cycle medium-duty passenger vehicles (MDPVs) that are...

  2. Longitudinal Prediction of the One-Year Course of Preschool ADHD Symptoms: Implications for Models of Temperament-ADHD Associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martel, Michelle M; Gremillion, Monica L; Roberts, Bethan A; Zastrow, Brittany L; Tackett, Jennifer L

    2014-07-01

    Despite the fact that Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is often conceptualized as an extreme trait, there remains controversy about the best way to understand associations between temperament traits and ADHD. The current study examines longitudinal associations between temperament traits and ADHD during early childhood in order to critically examine vulnerability and spectrum models of trait-ADHD associations. Study participants were 109 children between the ages of 3 and 6 and their primary caregivers and teachers/daycare providers, community-recruited for ADHD-related problems. Primary caregivers completed the Kiddie Disruptive Behavior Disorders Schedule semi-structured diagnostic interview at the initial appointment and one year later. At the initial appointment, primary caregivers completed the Child Behavior Questionnaire as a measure of child temperament traits. Results from the initial time point indicated that high neuroticism and high surgency were associated with inattentive and hyperactive-impulsive ADHD symptoms, and low effortful control was associated with hyperactive-impulsive ADHD symptoms. However, none of these traits predicted the one-year course of ADHD symptoms. Results are more consistent with a spectrum (vs. vulnerability) model of trait-psychopathology associations, suggesting that traits, but may not influence longitudinal course during early childhood.

  3. Geostatistical model-based estimates of Schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged ≤ 20 years in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadine Schur

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤ 20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤ 20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia and 37.1% (Liberia for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia and 51.6% (Sierra Leone for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3% than reported before (30.0%. Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. CONCLUSION

  4. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.Z. Baskent

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests.  This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies.Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalı district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey.Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETÇAP to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies.Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1194 ha (4%, the productive forest areas increased about 5397 ha (18% with a decrease of degraded forest (5824 ha, 20% and increase of maquis areas (2212 ha, 7%.The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11% due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized.Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively.Keywords: Forest management; simulation; optimization; forest dynamics; land use change.

  5. Modelled rainfall skill assessment against a 1000-year time/space isotope dendro-climatology for southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodborne, Stephan; Hall, Grant; Zhang, Qiong

    2016-04-01

    Palaeoclimate reconstruction using isotopic analysis of tree growth increments has yielded a 1000-year record of rainfall variability in southern Africa. Isotope dendro-climatology reconstructions from baobab trees (Adansonia digitata) provide evidence for rainfall variability from the arid Namib Desert and the Limpopo River Valley. Isotopic analysis of a museum specimen of a yellowwood tree (Podocarps falcatus) yields another record from the southwestern part of the subcontinent. Combined with the limited classic denro-climatologies available in the region these records yield palaeo-rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones as well as the hyper-arid zone over the last 1000 years. Coherent shifts in all of the records indicate synoptic changes in the westerlies, the inter-tropical convergence zone, and the Congo air boundary. The most substantial rainfall shift takes place at about 1600 CE at the onset of the Little Ice Age. Another distinctive feature of the record is a widespread phenomenon that occurs shortly after 1810 CE that in southern Africa corresponds with a widespread social upheaval known as the Difequane or Mfekane. Large scale forcing of the system includes sea-surface temperatures in the Agulhas Current, the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode. The Little Ice Age and Mfekane climate shifts result from different forcing mechanisms, and the rainfall response in the different regions at these times do not have a fixed phase relationship. This complexity provides a good scenario to test climate models. A first order (wetter versus drier) comparison between each of the tree records and a 1000-year palaeoclimate model simulation for the Little Ice Age and Mfekane transitions demonstrates a generally good correspondence.

  6. Multi-year model simulations of mineral dust distribution and transport over the Indian subcontinent during summer monsoon seasons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijikumar, S.; Aneesh, S.; Rajeev, K.

    2016-08-01

    Aerosol distribution over the Arabian Sea and the Indian subcontinent during the northern hemispheric summer is dominated by mineral dust transport from the West Asian desert regions. The radiative impact of these dust plumes is expected to have a prominent role in regulating the Asian Summer Monsoon circulation. While satellite observations have provided information in the spatial distribution of aerosols over the oceanic regions during the season, their utility over the land is rather limited. This study examines the transport of mineral dust over the West Asian desert, the Indian subcontinent and the surrounding oceanic regions during the summer monsoon season with the help of a regional scale model, WRF-Chem. Geographical locations of prominent dust sources, altitude ranges of mineral dust transport and their inter-annual variations are examined in detail. Multi-year model simulations were carried out during 2007 to 2012 with a model integration from 15 May to 31 August of each year. Six-year seasonal mean (June to August) vertically integrated dust amount from 1000 to 300 hPa level shows prominent dust loading over the eastern parts of Arabian desert and the northwestern part of India which are identified as two major sources of dust production. Large latitudinal gradient in dust amount is observed over the Arabian Sea with the largest dust concentration over the northwestern part and is primarily caused by the prevailing northwesterly wind at 925 hPa level from the Arabian desert. The model simulations clearly show that most of the dust distributed over the Indo-Gangetic plane originates from the Rajasthan desert located in the northwestern part of India, whereas dust observed over the central and south peninsular India and over the Arabian Sea are mainly transported from the Arabian desert. Abnormal dust loading is observed over the north Arabian Sea during June 2008. This has been produced as a result of the low pressure system (associated with the onset of

  7. Translucency and color stability of resin composite and dental adhesives as modeling liquids - A one-year evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedrez-Porto, José Augusto; Münchow, Eliseu Aldrighi; Cenci, Maximiliano Sérgio; Pereira-Cenci, Tatiana

    2017-07-03

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of modeling liquids on the translucency and color shade of resin composites (RCs) after one year of storage. RC specimens were prepared using either a conventional insertion technique (control; without modeling liquid) or a restorative dental modeling insertion technique (RDMIT) with dental adhesives as modeling liquids (Scotchbond™ Multi-Purpose [SBMP; 3M ESPE] or Adper™ Single Bond 2 [SB; 3M ESPE]). The initial colors of the specimens were obtained with a digital spectrophotometer and the CIEL*a*b* color system, after which specimens were stored (37°C) in distilled water or red wine for 12 months. Color measurements were reassessed after 6 and 12 months of storage, and scanning electron microscopy was performed after 12 months. Translucency and color change (ΔE*) were calculated and analyzed using ANOVA and Tukey's test (α = 5%). RC samples prepared via RDMIT showed a translucency similar to that of control samples. ΔE* was also less intense for RCs containing SBMP than for RCs containing SB. Specimens stored in wine showed a clear pattern of degradation, especially in the control group, and surface degradation seemed to be less intense for specimens prepared with SBMP and SB than for specimens without. Specimens stored in water did not show clear evidence of surface degradation. RDMIT appears to be an interesting approach to reduce ΔE* in RCs over time without negative effects on the translucency of the material. However, the modeling liquid should feature a hydrophobic composition, similar to that used in the SBMP group, the achieve the best results.

  8. Committed retreat of Smith, Pope, and Kohler Glaciers over the next 30 years inferred by transient model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. N.; Heimbach, P.; Joughin, I.; Smith, B.

    2015-12-01

    A glacial flow model of Smith, Pope and Kohler Glaciers is calibrated by means of control methods against time varying, annually resolved observations of ice height and velocities, covering the period 2002 to 2011. The inversion - termed "transient calibration" - produces an optimal set of time-mean, spatially varying parameters together with a time-evolving state that accounts for the transient nature of observations and the model dynamics. Serving as an optimal initial condition, the estimated state for 2011 is used, with no additional forcing, for predicting grounded ice volume loss and grounding line retreat over the ensuing 30 years. The transiently calibrated model predicts a near-steady loss of grounded ice volume of approximately 21 km3 a-1 over this period, as well as loss of 33 km2 a-1 grounded area. We contrast this prediction with one obtained following a commonly used "snapshot" or steady-state inversion, which does not consider time dependence and assumes all observations to be contemporaneous. Transient calibration is shown to achieve a better fit with observations of thinning and grounding line retreat histories, and yields a quantitatively different projection with respect to ice volume loss and ungrounding. Sensitivity studies suggest large near-future levels of unforced, i.e., committed sea level contribution from these ice streams under reasonable assumptions regarding uncertainties of the unknown parameters.

  9. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Research; Gustafsson, Bo [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden); Omstedt, Anders [SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times.

  10. Mental models and language registers in the psychoanalysis of psychosis: an overview of a thirteen-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Riccardo

    2003-08-01

    The author suggests that the use of mental models and language registers may help an analysis to proceed, especially in psychosis, when the patient has not yet developed a mental space that will allow him/her the functions of knowledge and containment of emotions. Models, according to Bion, are a primitive approach to abstraction and a manifestation of the analyst's reverie that enables him/her to transform sense data into alpha-elements. Ferrari, in a further development of Bion's theories, hypothesises a relationship between the transference and the internal level of body-mind communication, and proposes the use of language registers to sustain the psychoanalytic process. The author presents several clinical examples from a thirteen-year, four-session-a-week analysis of a psychotic analysand who was initially confused, paranoid and altogether unable to bring self-reflective thought to bear on her overwhelming emotions and had, by the end of the analysis, completely recovered from her psychotic symptoms. The clinical material shows how the technical tools of mental models and language registers helped in the construction of a mental space and spatio-temporal parameters, permitting the patient to tolerate overwhelming concrete emotions and finally to recognise and work through the emotions of an intense transference.

  11. The Swarm Initial Field Model – a Model of the Earth’s Magnetic Field for 2014 Determined From One Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent;

    Almost one year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its......) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times (Kp less than 2o, time change of Dst-index less than 2 nT/hr) and dark regions (sun below horizon) and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC...

  12. High-resolution modelling of health impacts and related external cost from air pollution over 36 years using the integrated model system EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Jørgen; Andersen, Mikael S.; Bønløkke, Jakob; Christensen, Jesper H.; Geels, Camilla; Hansen, Kaj M.; Hertel, Ole; Im, Ulas; Jensen, Steen S.; Ketzel, Matthias; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Plejdrup, Marlene S.; Sigsgaard, Torben

    2016-04-01

    A high-resolution assessment of health impacts from air pollution and related external cost has been conducted for Denmark using the integrated EVA model system. The EVA system is based on the impact-pathway methodology, where the site-specific emissions will result, via atmospheric transport and chemistry, in a concentration distribution, which together with detailed population data, is used to estimate the population-level exposure. Using exposure-response functions and economic valuations, the exposure is transformed into impacts on human health and related external costs. In this study we have used a coupling of two chemistry transport models to calculate the air pollution concentration at different domain and scales; the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) to calculate the air pollution levels in the Northern Hemisphere with a resolution down to 5.6 km x 5.6 km and the Urban Background Model (UBM) to further calculate the air pollution in Denmark at 1 km x 1 km resolution using results from DEHM as boundary conditions. Both the emission data as well as the population density has been represented in the model system with the same high resolution. Previous health impact assessments related to air pollution have been made on a lower resolution. In this study, the integrated model system, EVA, has been used to estimate the health impacts and related external cost for Denmark at a 1 km x 1 km resolution. New developments of the integrated model system will be presented as well as the development of health impacts and related external costs in Europe and Denmark over a period of 36 years (1979-2014). Acknowledgements This work was funded by: DCE - National Centre for Environment and Energy. Project: "Health impacts and external costs from air pollution in Denmark over 25 years" and NordForsk under the Nordic Programme on Health and Welfare. Project: "Understanding the link between air pollution and distribution of related health impacts and welfare in the

  13. Reconstructing and modelling 71 years of forest growth in a Canadian boreal landscape : a test of the CBM-CFS3 carbon accounting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernier, P.Y.; Guindon, L. [Canadian Forest Service, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Laurentian Forestry Centre; Kurz, W.A.; Stinson, G. [Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC (Canada). Pacific Forestry Centre

    2010-01-15

    Modelled estimates have suggested that Canada's managed forests are now shifting from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon sources. This study evaluated the Canadian Forest Sector carbon budget model (CBM-CFS3). A reconstructed dataset of forest growth and disturbances encompassing a 62 km{sup 2} landscape spanning a 71 year period were used to demonstrate that the CBM-CFS3 simulations underestimated realized net biomass accrual by 10 per cent in undisturbed stands, and may also underestimate biomass accrual in disturbed stands. Results from the model were compared with mechanistic model predictions, flux-tower measurements of ecosystem carbon exchanges, and long-term observations of changes in biomass. The errors were attributed to the initial 1928 operational forest photointerpretation and inventory procedures used to determine merchantable volume and biomass. Regionally parameterized yield curves may also be contributing to errors. Results of the study suggested that long-term trends in climate or atmospheric composition may not have contributed to the bias. A similar exercise conducted in a Pacific coastal forest demonstrated a small relative impact on total carbon from forest management activities in the absence of natural disturbances. 30 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  14. Multi-year simulation of the East Asian Monsoon and Precipitation in China using a Regional Climate Model and Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Qiaoping; DING Yihui

    2005-01-01

    By using the regional climate model (RegCM_NCC), East Asian monsoon and precipitation over China during 1998 to 2002 are simulated. Results show that the model can well reproduce the seasonal patterns of mean circulation as well as the intensity and seasonal march of the East Asian monsoon. The simulated onset or retreat time of the West Pacific subtropical high, and the intensity and location of the South Asian high are consistent with the fact. The spatial distribution and transport of moisture in lower layer are also well simulated. The seasonal variations of regional rainfall and temperature are reproduced in the model, with three northward shift time and intensity of the rain belts over the sub-regions (such as Mid-Lower Yangtze basins and South China) well corresponding to the observation. However, the simulated summer monsoon is stronger compared with NCEP reanalysis fields, with the location of subtropical high being further north by 2-3 degrees than normal. Error evaluation shows that there is a discernible systematic bias in the simulated mean circulation pattern, with air temperature bias being positive over the land and negative over the ocean in the lower troposphere in summer. The systematic bias exaggerates the summer temperature difference between the land and ocean, which may be a main responsible factor for the stronger simulated summer monsoon, thus resulting in the overestimated rainfall in North China and it can not reflect well the abnormal rainfall distribution in these 5 years. The deficiency may be mainly contributed to the complex topography and cloud-radiation parameterization scheme. The analyses also indicate that it is difficult to simulate the persistent abnormal precipitation pattern over China. It is necessary to improve the model's capability further.

  15. Global validation of the wave model WAM over a one-year period using geosat wave height data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Romeiser, R. (Universitaet Hamburg (Germany))

    1993-03-15

    The high quality of wave fields simulated by the third-generation wave model WAM has already been demonstrated in various validation studies using in situ measurements as well as data from satellites as reference. However, owing to limitations of the reference data sets, the previous studies concentrated on relatively small regions or short time periods only, for which adequate measurements were available. In this paper the first global verification of the WAM model over a full 1-year period is presented. The significant wave heights hindcast for 1988 by the WAM model as implemented at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts are compared with measurements obtained by the Geosat radar altimeter. The wave heights from WAM and Geosat show good agreement in general. However, significant regional and seasonal differences are found. The hindcast wave heights are underestimated by about 20% in large parts of the southern hemisphere and the tropical region during May-September. For the rest of the time, the agreement with Geosat data is fairly good. Together with the fact that also the rms variability of wave heights in the tropical region is clearly underestimated by WAM, this can possibly be attributed to simplifications like the neglect of atmospheric stratification effects when converting wind speeds to the wind stress fields driving WAM. Furthermore, the intercomparison indicates that low wave heights below [approx]1.5 m are generally overestimated by WAM. As it is planned to use altimeter wave heights for updating wave models in future data assimilation systems, it is quite important to have efficient quality control criteria for these data. The difference between the Geosat and WAM wave heights shows a clear dependence on the additional parameters in some cases, which must be related to quality problems of the Geosat data. Some new criteria for the rejection of incorrect Geosat data points are obtained. 16 refs., 6 figs.

  16. The climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers: a 10-year simulation with a coupled atmosphere-glacier mass balance model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aas, Kjetil S.; Dunse, Thorben; Collier, Emily; Schuler, Thomas V.; Berntsen, Terje K.; Kohler, Jack; Luks, Bartłomiej

    2016-05-01

    In this study we simulate the climatic mass balance of Svalbard glaciers with a coupled atmosphere-glacier model with 3 km grid spacing, from September 2003 to September 2013. We find a mean specific net mass balance of -257 mm w.e. yr-1, corresponding to a mean annual mass loss of about 8.7 Gt, with large interannual variability. Our results are compared with a comprehensive set of mass balance, meteorological, and satellite measurements. Model temperature biases of 0.19 and -1.9 °C are found at two glacier automatic weather station sites. Simulated climatic mass balance is mostly within about 100 mm w.e. yr-1 of stake measurements, and simulated winter accumulation at the Austfonna ice cap shows mean absolute errors of 47 and 67 mm w.e. yr-1 when compared to radar-derived values for the selected years 2004 and 2006. Comparison of modeled surface height changes from 2003 to 2008, and satellite altimetry reveals good agreement in both mean values and regional differences. The largest deviations from observations are found for winter accumulation at Hansbreen (up to around 1000 mm w.e. yr-1), a site where sub-grid topography and wind redistribution of snow are important factors. Comparison with simulations using 9 km grid spacing reveal considerable differences on regional and local scales. In addition, 3 km grid spacing allows for a much more detailed comparison with observations than what is possible with 9 km grid spacing. Further decreasing the grid spacing to 1 km appears to be less significant, although in general precipitation amounts increase with resolution. Altogether, the model compares well with observations and offers possibilities for studying glacier climatic mass balance on Svalbard both historically as well as based on climate projections.

  17. Longitudinal Relationships Between Productive Activities and Functional Health in Later Years: A Multivariate Latent Growth Curve Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Eunhee; Tang, Fengyan; Kim, Sung-Geun; Turk, Phillip

    2016-10-01

    This study examined the longitudinal relationships between functional health in later years and three types of productive activities: volunteering, full-time, and part-time work. Using the data from five waves (2000-2008) of the Health and Retirement Study, we applied multivariate latent growth curve modeling to examine the longitudinal relationships among individuals 50 or over. Functional health was measured by limitations in activities of daily living. Individuals who volunteered, worked either full time or part time exhibited a slower decline in functional health than nonparticipants. Significant associations were also found between initial functional health and longitudinal changes in productive activity participation. This study provides additional support for the benefits of productive activities later in life; engagement in volunteering and employment are indeed associated with better functional health in middle and old age.

  18. A Risk-Scoring Model to Predict One-year Major Adverse Cardiac Events after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed-Ebrahim Kassaian

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The aim of the present study was to develop a scoring system for predicting 1-year major adverse cardiac events (MACE, including mortality, target vessel or target lesion revascularization, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, and non-fatal myocardial infarction after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI.Methods: The data were extracted from a single center PCI registry. The score was created based on the clinical, procedural, and laboratory characteristics of 8206 patients who underwent PCI between April 2004 and October 2009. Consecutive patients undergoing PCI between November 2009 and February 2011 (n= 2875 were included as a validation data set. Results: Diabetes mellitus, increase in the creatinine level, decrease in the left ventricular ejection fraction, presentation with the acute coronary syndrome, number of diseased vessels, primary PCI, PCI on the left anterior descending artery and saphenous vein graft, and stent type and diameter were identified as the predictors of the outcome and used to develop the score (R² = 0.795. The models had adequate goodness of fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic; p value = 0.601 and acceptable ability of discrimination (c-statistics = 0.63. The score categorized the individual patients as low-, moderate-, and high-risk for the occurrence of MACE. The validation of the model indicated a good agreement between the observed and expected risks.Conclusion: An individual risk-scoring system based on both clinical and procedural variables can be used conveniently to predict 1-year MACE after PCI. Risk classification based on this score can assist physicians in decision-making and postprocedural health care. 

  19. Geo-Needs: Investigating Models for Improved Access to Geosciences at Two-Year and Minority-Serving Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Her, X.; Turner, S. P.; LaDue, N.; Bentley, A. P.; Petcovic, H. L.; Mogk, D. W.; Cartwright, T.

    2015-12-01

    Geosciences are an important field of study for the future of energy, water, climate resilience, and infrastructure in our country. Geoscience related job growth is expected to steeply climb in the United States, however many of these positions will be left unfilled. One untapped population of Americans is ethnic minorities, who have historically been underrepresented in the geosciences. In 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that black and Hispanics only make 8.1% of geoscience related jobs, while making up nearly 30% of Americans. This pattern of underrepresentation has been attributed to 1) minority serving institutions lacking geoscience programs, 2) low interest in the outdoors due to a lack of opportunity, and 3) negative and low prestigious perceptions of geoscientists. Our project focuses specifically on the first barrier. Preliminary research suggests that only 2.5% of institutions with geoscience programs (n= 609) are also minority serving. The goals of the Geo-Needs project are to identify obstacles to and opportunities for better use of existing educational resources in two-year and minority-serving institutions, and to explore "ideal" models of resources, partnerships, and other support for geoscience faculty and students in these institutions. Four focus group meetings were held in August 2015 bringing administrators, instructors, resource providers, and education researchers together to discuss and develop these models. Activities at the meetings included small and whole group prompted discussion, guest speakers, gallery walks, and individual reflection. Content from the focus group meetings is available at the project's website: http://serc.carleton.edu/geoneeds/index.html. Findings from the meetings can be used to inform future efforts aimed toward broadening access to the geosciences at two-year and minority-serving institutions.

  20. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2017-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a ‘Starkrimson’ × ‘Granny Smith’ cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility

  1. Seasonal cycle of volume transport through Kerama Gap revealed by a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhitao; Metzger, E. Joseph; Thoppil, Prasad; Hurlburt, Harley E.; Zamudio, Luis; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Na, Hanna; Nakamura, Hirohiko; Park, Jae-Hun

    2015-12-01

    The temporal variability of volume transport from the North Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) through Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island - a part of Ryukyu Islands Arc) is investigated using a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation from 1993 to 2012. The HYCOM mean transport is 2.1 Sv (positive into the ECS, 1 Sv = 106 m3/s) from June 2009 to June 2011, in good agreement with the observed 2.0 Sv transport during the same period. This is similar to the 20-year mean Kerama Gap transport of 1.95 ± 4.0 Sv. The 20-year monthly mean volume transport (transport seasonal cycle) is maximum in October (3.0 Sv) and minimum in November (0.5 Sv). The annual variation component (345-400 days), mesoscale eddy component (70-345 days), and Kuroshio meander component (< 70 days) are separated to determine their contributions to the transport seasonal cycle. The annual variation component has a close relation with the local wind field and increases (decreases) transport into the ECS through Kerama Gap in summer (winter). Most of the variations in the transport seasonal cycle come from the mesoscale eddy component. The impinging mesoscale eddies increase the transport into the ECS during January, February, May, and October, and decrease it in March, April, November, and December, but have little effect in summer (June-September). The Kuroshio meander components cause smaller transport variations in summer than in winter.

  2. Variability of the Martian thermosphere during eight Martian years as simulated by a ground-to-exosphere global circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Galindo, F.; López-Valverde, M. A.; Forget, F.; García-Comas, M.; Millour, E.; Montabone, L.

    2015-11-01

    Using a ground-to-exosphere general circulation model for Mars we have simulated the variability of the dayside temperatures at the exobase during eight Martian years (MY, from MY24 to MY31, approximately from 1998 to 2013), taking into account the observed day-to-day solar and dust load variability. We show that the simulated temperatures are in good agreement with the exospheric temperatures derived from Precise Orbit Determination of Mars Global Surveyor. We then study the effects of the solar variability and of two planetary-encircling dust storms on the simulated temperatures. The seasonal effect produced by the large eccentricity of the Martian orbit translates in an aphelion-to-perihelion temperature contrast in every simulated year. However, the magnitude of this seasonal temperature variation is strongly affected by the solar conditions, ranging from 50 K for years corresponding to solar minimum conditions to almost 140 K during the last solar maximum. The 27 day solar rotation cycle is observed on the simulated temperatures at the exobase, with average amplitude of the temperature oscillation of 2.6 K but with a significant interannual variability. These two results highlight the importance of taking into account the solar variability when simulating the Martian upper atmosphere and likely have important implications concerning the atmospheric escape rate. We also show that the global dust storms in MY25 and MY28 have a significant effect on the simulated temperatures. In general, they increase the exospheric temperatures over the low latitude and midlatitude regions and decrease them in the polar regions.

  3. Seasonal forcing and multi-year cycles in interacting populations: lessons from a predator-prey model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rachel A; Sherratt, Jonathan A; White, Andrew

    2013-12-01

    Many natural systems are subject to seasonal environmental change. As a consequence many species exhibit seasonal changes in their life history parameters--such as a peak in the birth rate in spring. It is important to understand how this seasonal forcing affects the population dynamics. The main way in which seasonal models have been studied is through a two dimensional bifurcation approach. We augment this bifurcation approach with extensive simulation in order to understand the potential solution behaviours for a predator-prey system with a seasonally forced prey growth rate. We consider separately how forcing influences the system when the unforced dynamics have either monotonic decay to the coexistence steady state, or oscillatory decay, or stable limit cycles. The range of behaviour the system can exhibit includes multi-year cycles of different periodicities, parameter ranges with coexisting multi-year cycles of the same or different period as well as quasi-periodicity and chaos. We show that the level of oscillation in the unforced system has a large effect on the range of behaviour when the system is seasonally forced. We discuss how the methods could be extended to understand the dynamics of a wide range of ecological and epidemiological systems that are subject to seasonal changes.

  4. Modeling the spatial and temporal population dynamics of the copepod Centropages typicus in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during the year 2001 using a 3D ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlotti, F.; Eisenhauer, L.; Campbell, R.; Diaz, F.

    2014-07-01

    The spatio-temporal dynamics of a simulated Centropages typicus (Kröyer) population during the year 2001 at the regional scale of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea are addressed using a 3D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The setup of the coupled biological model comprises a pelagic plankton ecosystem model and a stage-structured population model forced by the 3D velocity and temperature fields provided by an eddy-resolving regional circulation model. The population model for C. typicus (C. t. below) represents demographic processes through five groups of developmental stages, which depend on underlying individual growth and development processes and are forced by both biotic (prey and predator fields) and abiotic (temperature, advection) factors from the coupled physical-biogeochemical model. The objective is to characterize C. t. ontogenic habitats driven by physical and trophic processes. The annual dynamics are presented for two of the main oceanographic stations in the Gulf of Lions, which are representative of shelf and open sea conditions, while the spatial distributions over the whole area are presented for three dates during the year, in early and late spring and in winter. The simulated spatial patterns of C. t. developmental stages are closely related to mesoscale hydrodynamic features and circulation patterns. The seasonal and spatial distributions on the Gulf of Lions shelf depend on the seasonal interplay between the Rhône river plume, the mesoscale eddies on the shelf and the Northern Current acting as either as a dynamic barrier between the shelf and the open sea or allowing cross-shelf exchanges. In the central gyre of the northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the patchiness of plankton is tightly linked to mesoscale frontal systems, surface eddies and filaments and deep gradients. Due to its flexibility in terms of its diet, C. t. succeeds in maintaining its population in both coastal and offshore areas year round. The simulations suggest that

  5. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-08-01

    Computational phantoms are commonly used in internal radiation dosimetry to assess the amount and distribution pattern of energy deposited in various parts of the human body from different internal radiation sources. Radiation dose assessments are commonly performed on predetermined reference computational phantoms while the argument for individualized patient-specific radiation dosimetry exists. This study aims to evaluate the influence of body habitus on internal dosimetry and to quantify the uncertainties in dose estimation correlated with the use of fixed reference models. The 5-year-old IT’IS male phantom was modified to match target anthropometric parameters, including body weight, body height and sitting height/stature ratio (SSR), determined from reference databases, thus enabling the creation of 125 5-year-old habitus-dependent male phantoms with 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile body morphometries. We evaluated the absorbed fractions and the mean absorbed dose to the target region per unit cumulative activity in the source region (S-values) of F-18 in 46 source regions for the generated 125 anthropomorphic 5-year-old hybrid male phantoms using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body

  6. Zonda downslope winds in the central Andes of South America in a 20-year climate simulation with the Eta model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antico, Pablo L.; Chou, Sin Chan; Mourão, Caroline

    2015-12-01

    The Zonda wind is a local version of the alpine foehn in the central Andes Mountains in South America. It blows on the eastern slopes and produces an extremely warm and dry condition in Argentina. In this study, the occurrence of Zonda wind events during a 20-year simulation from the regional Eta model is analyzed and results are compared to previous studies of Zonda wind events based on weather observations. We define a set of parameters to account for the zonal pressure gradient across the mountain, vertical movement, and air humidity typical of Zonda wind events. These parameters are applied to characterize Zonda wind events in model run and to classify them as surface-level or high-level episodes. The resulting annual distribution of Zonda occurrences based on composite analyses shows a preference for winter and spring with rare occurrences during summer. For the surface-level Zonda wind events, the highest frequency occurs during spring. Whereas surface-level Zonda wind episodes more commonly initiate in the afternoon, high-level Zonda wind events show no preference for a given initiation time. Our results are mostly in agreement with previous observational results.

  7. State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamura, Kenji; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Motoyama, Hideaki; Ageta, Yutaka; Aoki, Shuji; Azuma, Nobuhiko; Fujii, Yoshiyuki; Fujita, Koji; Fujita, Shuji; Fukui, Kotaro; Furukawa, Teruo; Furusaki, Atsushi; Goto-Azuma, Kumiko; Greve, Ralf; Hirabayashi, Motohiro; Hondoh, Takeo; Hori, Akira; Horikawa, Shinichiro; Horiuchi, Kazuho; Igarashi, Makoto; Iizuka, Yoshinori; Kameda, Takao; Kanda, Hiroshi; Kohno, Mika; Kuramoto, Takayuki; Matsushi, Yuki; Miyahara, Morihiro; Miyake, Takayuki; Miyamoto, Atsushi; Nagashima, Yasuo; Nakayama, Yoshiki; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Nakazawa, Fumio; Nishio, Fumihiko; Obinata, Ichio; Ohgaito, Rumi; Oka, Akira; Okuno, Jun’ichi; Okuyama, Junichi; Oyabu, Ikumi; Parrenin, Frédéric; Pattyn, Frank; Saito, Fuyuki; Saito, Takashi; Saito, Takeshi; Sakurai, Toshimitsu; Sasa, Kimikazu; Seddik, Hakime; Shibata, Yasuyuki; Shinbori, Kunio; Suzuki, Keisuke; Suzuki, Toshitaka; Takahashi, Akiyoshi; Takahashi, Kunio; Takahashi, Shuhei; Takata, Morimasa; Tanaka, Yoichi; Uemura, Ryu; Watanabe, Genta; Watanabe, Okitsugu; Yamasaki, Tetsuhide; Yokoyama, Kotaro; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Yoshimoto, Takayasu

    2017-01-01

    Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. PMID:28246631

  8. The benefit of modeled ozone data for the reconstruction of a 99-year UV radiation time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Feister, U.; Helbig, A.; GöRgen, K.; Rozanov, E.; KrzyśCin, J. W.; Hoffmann, L.

    2012-08-01

    Solar erythemal UV radiation (UVER) is highly relevant for numerous biological processes that affect plants, animals, and human health. Nevertheless, long-term UVER records are scarce. As significant declines in the column ozone concentration were observed in the past and a recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is anticipated by the middle of the 21st century, there is a strong interest in the temporal variation of UVERtime series. Therefore, we combined ground-based measurements of different meteorological variables with modeled ozone data sets to reconstruct time series of daily totals of UVER at the Meteorological Observatory, Potsdam, Germany. Artificial neural networks were trained with measured UVER, sunshine duration, the day of year, measured and modeled total column ozone, as well as the minimum solar zenith angle. This allows for the reconstruction of daily totals of UVERfor the period from 1901 to 1999. Additionally, analyses of the long-term variations from 1901 until 1999 of the reconstructed, new UVER data set are presented. The time series of monthly and annual totals of UVERprovide a long-term meteorological basis for epidemiological investigations in human health and occupational medicine for the region of Potsdam and Berlin. A strong benefit of our ANN-approach is the fact that it can be easily adapted to different geographical locations, as successfully tested in the framework of the COSTAction 726.

  9. Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

    2017-04-01

    We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall

  10. Comparison of a 1500 Year-Long ENSO-Sensitive Ice Core Proxy Record to Modeled Solar Forcing Mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osterberg, E.; Mayewski, P.; Kreutz, K.; Fisher, D.; Sneed, S.

    2008-12-01

    A calibrated 1500 year-long glaciochemical proxy record for the strength of the wintertime (November-March) Aleutian Low (ALOW) from the Mt. Logan summit (PR Col; 5300 m a.s.l.) ice core [Na+] time series reveals a strong ALOW from ca. 650-900 A.D., ca. 1300-1550 A.D., and ca. 1700-1998 A.D., and a weaker ALOW from ca. 900-1300 A.D. and ca. 1550-1700 A.D. The proxy record was calibrated to instrumental sea-level pressure data using standard regression techniques, and verified using statistical, spectral, and spatial correlation analyses. This record is consistent with ENSO-sensitive paleoclimate proxies from the Pacific basin that indicate El Niño-like conditions during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and La Niña- like conditions during the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). The Mt. Logan ALOW proxy record is significantly correlated with atmospheric Δ14C records (r = 0.39, p<0.05), supporting an influence of solar forcing on late Holocene North Pacific climate. The increased frequency of El Niño conditions during the LIA relative to the MCA is consistent with the modeled "ocean thermostat" mechanism whereby weak solar irradiance during the LIA promotes El Niño-like conditions, and strong MCA solar irradiance promotes La Niña-like conditions by modifying the east-west SST gradient in the tropical Pacific. We will also discuss the consistency of these paleoproxy records with models invoking solar-induced changes in the north-south temperature gradient at the tropopause. In these model results, weaker solar irradiance causes cooling and weaker westerly winds in the stratosphere, inducing a tropospheric response that includes expansion of the polar cell, contraction of the Hadley cell, and enhanced meridional circulation.

  11. Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Cochlear Implantation and Deaf Education in Nicaragua: A Disability Adjusted Life Year Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, James E; Barrs, David M; Gong, Wenfeng; Wilson, Blake S; Mojica, Karen; Tucci, Debara L

    2015-09-01

    Cochlear implantation (CI) is a common intervention for severe-to-profound hearing loss in high-income countries, but is not commonly available to children in low resource environments. Owing in part to the device costs, CI has been assumed to be less economical than deaf education for low resource countries. The purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of the two interventions for children with severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in a model using disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Cost estimates were derived from published data, expert opinion, and known costs of services in Nicaragua. Individual costs and lifetime DALY estimates with a 3% discounting rate were applied to both two interventions. Sensitivity analysis was implemented to evaluate the effect on the discounted cost of five key components: implant cost, audiology salary, speech therapy salary, number of children implanted per year, and device failure probability. The costs per DALY averted are $5,898 and $5,529 for CI and deaf education, respectively. Using standards set by the WHO, both interventions are cost effective. Sensitivity analysis shows that when all costs set to maximum estimates, CI is still cost effective. Using a conservative DALY analysis, both CI and deaf education are cost-effective treatment alternatives for severe-to-profound SNHL. CI intervention costs are not only influenced by the initial surgery and device costs but also by rehabilitation costs and the lifetime maintenance, device replacement, and battery costs. The major CI cost differences in this low resource setting were increased initial training and infrastructure costs, but lower medical personnel and surgery costs.

  12. Improvement and decline of cognitive function in schizophrenia over one year: a longitudinal investigation using latent growth modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joyce Eileen M

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Long-term follow-up studies of people with schizophrenia report stability of cognitive performance; less is known about any shorter-term changes in cognitive function. Methods This longitudinal study aimed to establish whether there was stability, improvement or decline in memory and executive functions over four assessments undertaken prospectively in one year. Cognitive performance was assessed during randomized controlled trials of first- and second-generation antipsychotic medication. Analyses used a latent growth modeling approach, so that individuals who missed some testing occasions could be included and trajectories of cognitive change explored despite missing data. Results Over the year there was significant decline in spatial recognition but no change in pattern recognition or motor speed. Improvement was seen in planning and spatial working memory tasks; this may reflect improved strategy use with practice. There were significant individual differences in the initial level of performance on all tasks but not in rate of change; the latter may have been due to sample size limitations. Age, sex, premorbid IQ and drug class allocation explained significant variation in level of performance but could not predict change. Patients randomized to first-generation drugs improved more quickly than other groups on the planning task. Conclusion We conclude that cognitive change is present in schizophrenia but the magnitude of change is small when compared with the large differences in cognitive function that exist between patients. Analyses that retain patients who drop out of longitudinal studies, as well as those who complete testing protocols, are important to our understanding of cognition in schizophrenia.

  13. 40 CFR 1039.102 - What exhaust emission standards and phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... years. See § 1039.101 for exhaust emission standards that apply to later model years. See 40 CFR 89.112... 40 CFR part 89. However, except as specified by paragraph (a)(1) of this section, the transient PM...+NMHC credits from any Tier 2 engine at or above 37 kW certified under 40 CFR part 89 to meet the...

  14. Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history using hydrological model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Wu

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The recent fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458 points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI, which can be used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis. We develop a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought events. As the result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978, 2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, indicating SMAPI is capable of indentifying the onset of a drought event, its progressing, as well as its ending. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts on China's nine drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to 30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North during the recent fifty-nine years. However, the decadal variability of droughts has been week in the rest five regions South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet. Xinjiang has even been wetting steadily since the 1950s. Two regional dry centers are discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first center is located in the area partially covered by two

  15. Bioresorbable polylactide interbody implants in an ovine anterior cervical discectomy and fusion model: three-year results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin A; Toth, Jeffrey M; Crawford, Neil R; Seim, Howard B; Shi, Lewis L; Harris, Mitchel B; Turner, A Simon

    2008-04-01

    In vivo study of anterior discectomy and fusion using a bioresorbable 70:30 poly(l-lactide-co-d,l-lactide) interbody implant in an ovine model. To evaluate the efficacy of the polylactide implant to function as an interbody fusion device, and to assess the tissue reaction to the material during the resorption process. The use of polylactide as a cervical interbody implant has several potential advantages when compared with traditional materials. Having an elastic modulus very similar to bone minimizes the potential for stress shielding, and as the material resorbs additional loading is transferred to the developing fusion mass. Although preclinical and clinical studies have demonstrated the suitability of polylactide implants for lumbar interbody fusion, detailed information on cervical anterior cervical discectomy and fusion (ACDF) with polylactide devices is desirable. Single level ACDF was performed in 8 skeletally mature ewes. Bioresorbable 70:30 poly (l-lactide-co-d,l-lactide) interbody implants packed with autograft were used with single-level metallic plates. Radiographs were made every 3 months up to 1 year, and yearly thereafter. The animals were killed at 6 months (3 animals), 12 months (3 animals), and 36 months (2 animals). In addition to the serial plain radiographs, the specimens were evaluated by nondestructive biomechanical testing and undecalcified histologic analysis. The bioresorbable polylactide implants were effective in achieving interbody fusion. The 6-month animals appeared fused radiographically and biomechanically, whereas histologic sections demonstrated partial fusion (in 3 of 3 animals). Radiographic fusion was confirmed histologically and biomechanically at 12 months (3 of 3 animals) and 36 months (2 of 2 animals). A mild chronic inflammatory response to the resorbing polylactide implant was observed at both 6 months and 12 months. At 36 months, the operative levels were solidly fused and the implants were completely resorbed. No

  16. IFN production ability and healthy ageing: mixed model analysis of a 24 year longitudinal study in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uno, Kazuko; Yagi, Katsumi; Yoshimori, Masayo; Tanigawa, Mari; Yoshikawa, Toshikazu; Fujita, Setsuya

    2013-01-01

    Objective To track changes in interferon (IFN) production in healthy individuals to shed light on the effect these changes have on the course of healthy ageing. Design Study is based on data that were collected over 24 years from a cohort of individuals whose IFN-α production was quantified as a part of their annual routine health check-up. Setting All individuals in this study underwent regular health check-ups at Louis Pasteur Center for Medical Research. Participants 295 healthy individuals (159 males and 136 females) without a history of cancer, autoimmune diseases and hepatitis C virus (HCV) whose IFN-α production was quantified more than five times within 24 years were selected. Finally, 29 males and 4 females whose IFN-α production was quantified more than 25 times were selected and their data were analysed using a mixed model. Main outcome measures HVJ stimulated IFN-α  production was quantified. Healthy individual's periodical log transformed IFN-α values (y) were plotted versus age (x) and fitted to linear (y=mx+n) and quadratic formula (y=ax2+bx+c) expressions to reveal changes in the IFN-α  production in these healthy individuals. Results The linear expression showed that log (IFN-α) had a slight tendency to decline (3% over 10 years). However, the quadratic formula analysis showed the quadratic expression to be more positive than negative (a concave U-shaped pattern) which means that individuals’ once declining IFN production recovered as they aged. Conclusions Although we observed a marginal decline in IFN-α  production, we also observed that IFN production recovered even in individuals in their mid50s to early 60s. These results combined with our previous cross-sectional studies of patients with various diseases suggest that in healthy individuals, the impairment of IFN production is triggered more by the onset of disease (notwithstanding the cause) rather than by ageing. PMID:23315513

  17. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Garrigues

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is −0.24 mm day−1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the

  18. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2014-10-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is -0.24 mm day-1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the underestimation of

  19. A mixed-methods exploration of implementation of a comprehensive school healthy eating model one year after scale-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, Patti-Jean; McKay, Heather A; Valente, Maria; Mâsse, Louise C

    2016-04-01

    To study the implementation of a school-based healthy eating (HE) model one year after scale-up in British Columbia (BC). Specifically, to examine implementation of Action Schools! BC (AS! BC) and its influence on implementation of classroom HE activities, and to explore factors associated with implementation. Diffusion of Innovations, Social Cognitive and Organizational Change theories guided our approach. We used a mixed-methods research design including focus group interviews (seven schools, sixty-two implementers) and a cross-sectional multistage survey to principals (n 36, 92 % response rate) and teachers of grades 4 to 7 (n 168, 70 % response rate). Self-reported implementation of classroom HE activities and reported use of specific AS! BC HE activities were primary implementation measures. Thematic analysis of focus group data and multilevel mixed-effect logistic regression analyses of survey data were conducted. Elementary schools across BC, Canada. Thirty-nine school districts, thirty-six principals, 168 grade 4 to 7 teachers. Forty-two per cent of teachers in registered schools were implementing AS! BC HE in their classrooms. Users were 6·25 times more likely to have delivered a HE lesson in the past week. Implementation facilitators were school champions, technical support and access to resources; barriers were lack of time, loss of leadership or momentum. Implementation predictors were teacher training, self-efficacy, experience with the physical activity component of AS! BC, supportive school climate and parental post-secondary education. Our findings reinforce that continued teacher training and support are important public health investments that contribute to successful implementation of school-based HE models after scale-up.

  20. Stress increases the risk of type 2 diabetes onset in women: A 12-year longitudinal study using causal modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldmeadow, Christopher; Hure, Alexis; Luu, Judy; Loxton, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    Background Type 2 diabetes is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Modifiable risk factors have been found to contribute up to 60% of type 2 diabetes risk. However, type 2 diabetes continues to rise despite implementation of interventions based on traditional risk factors. There is a clear need to identify additional risk factors for chronic disease prevention. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between perceived stress and type 2 diabetes onset, and partition the estimates into direct and indirect effects. Methods and findings Women born in 1946–1951 (n = 12,844) completed surveys for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health in 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010. The total causal effect was estimated using logistic regression and marginal structural modelling. Controlled direct effects were estimated through conditioning in the regression model. A graded association was found between perceived stress and all mediators in the multivariate time lag analyses. A significant association was found between hypertension, as well as physical activity and body mass index, and diabetes, but not smoking or diet quality. Moderate/high stress levels were associated with a 2.3-fold increase in the odds of diabetes three years later, for the total estimated effect. Results were only slightly attenuated when the direct and indirect effects of perceived stress on diabetes were partitioned, with the mediators only explaining 10–20% of the excess variation in diabetes. Conclusions Perceived stress is a strong risk factor for type 2 diabetes. The majority of the effect estimate of stress on diabetes risk is not mediated by the traditional risk factors of hypertension, physical activity, smoking, diet quality, and body mass index. This gives a new pathway for diabetes prevention trials and clinical practice. PMID:28222165

  1. Visibility of children behind 2010-2013 model year passenger vehicles using glances, mirrors, and backup cameras and parking sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidd, David G; Brethwaite, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    This study identified the areas behind vehicles where younger and older children are not visible and measured the extent to which vehicle technologies improve visibility. Rear visibility of targets simulating the heights of a 12-15-month-old, a 30-36-month-old, and a 60-72-month-old child was assessed in 21 2010-2013 model year passenger vehicles with a backup camera or a backup camera plus parking sensor system. The average blind zone for a 12-15-month-old was twice as large as it was for a 60-72-month-old. Large SUVs had the worst rear visibility and small cars had the best. Increases in rear visibility provided by backup cameras were larger than the non-visible areas detected by parking sensors, but parking sensors detected objects in areas near the rear of the vehicle that were not visible in the camera or other fields of view. Overall, backup cameras and backup cameras plus parking sensors reduced the blind zone by around 90 percent on average and have the potential to prevent backover crashes if drivers use the technology appropriately.

  2. Using ice-flow models to evaluate potential sites of million year-old ice in Antarctica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Van Liefferinge

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Finding suitable potential sites for an undisturbed record of million-year old ice in Antarctica requires slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be thick and cold basal conditions should prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. However, thick ice (needed to resolve the signal at sufficient high resolution increases basal temperatures, which is a conflicting condition for finding a suitable drill site. In addition, slow moving areas in the center of ice sheets are also low-accumulation areas, and low accumulation reduces potential cooling of the ice through vertical advection. While boundary conditions such as ice thickness and accumulation rates are relatively well constrained, the major uncertainty in determining basal thermal conditions resides in the geothermal heat flow (GHF underneath the ice sheet. We explore uncertainties in existing GHF data sets and their effect on basal temperatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and propose an updated method based on Pattyn (2010 to improve existing GHF data sets in agreement with known basal temperatures and their gradients to reduce this uncertainty. Both complementary methods lead to a better comprehension of basal temperature sensitivity and a characterization of potential ice coring sites within these uncertainties. The combination of both modeling approaches show that the most likely oldest ice sites are situated near the divide areas (close to existing deep drilling sites, but in areas of smaller ice thickness and across the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains.

  3. Bankruptcy prediction: The influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pompe, P.P.M.; Bilderbeek, J.

    2005-01-01

    Using large amounts of data from small and medium-sized industrial firms, this study examines two aspects of bankruptcy prediction: the influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline. The results show that especially models

  4. Bankruptcy prediction: The influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pompe, P.P.M.; Bilderbeek, J.

    2005-01-01

    Using large amounts of data from small and medium-sized industrial firms, this study examines two aspects of bankruptcy prediction: the influence of the year prior to failure selected for model building and the effects in a period of economic decline. The results show that especially models generate

  5. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  6. Behavioural Outcomes of Four-Year-Old Children Prenatally Exposed to Methadone or Buprenorphine: A Test of Three Risk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konijnenberg, Carolien; Lund, Ingunn Olea; Melinder, Annika

    2015-01-01

    It is still under debate whether the reported effects of opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) on child behaviour are a direct effect of prenatal exposure, or whether other factors are involved. This prospective cohort study investigated three models: the teratogenic risk model, the maternal risk model, and a combined risk model in a group of 35…

  7. Behavioural Outcomes of Four-Year-Old Children Prenatally Exposed to Methadone or Buprenorphine: A Test of Three Risk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konijnenberg, Carolien; Lund, Ingunn Olea; Melinder, Annika

    2015-01-01

    It is still under debate whether the reported effects of opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) on child behaviour are a direct effect of prenatal exposure, or whether other factors are involved. This prospective cohort study investigated three models: the teratogenic risk model, the maternal risk model, and a combined risk model in a group of 35…

  8. Spatial and temporal modelling of fluvial aggradation in the Hasli Valley (Swiss Alps) during the last 1300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Jaime; Schulte, Lothar; Carvalho, Filipe

    2016-04-01

    process. Results suggest a longitudinal decrease of sedimentation rates from the apex towards the distal section of the delta plain. Differences in rates are also found within each cross-section (e.g. channel-levée: higher rates; interdistributary depression: lower rates), suggesting an asymmetric growth of the floodplain. A GIS paleosurfaces model was executed to calculate the fluvial sediment storage, which was subdivided in 300-year time slices, thus contributing to identify temporal trends in floodplain aggradation. The results were analyzed with regard to external drivers that control the sedimentation processes in the Haslital delta, such as climate and/or anthropogenic factors (land-use changes, hydraulic management), as well as the influence of the internal system settings. The facies-based approach provides an explanation of both the spatial and temporal components of delta plain formation; and produces valid information for local flood risk management, concerning the problem of alpine floodplains aggradation.

  9. Changes of net primary productivity in China during recent 11 years detected using an ecological model driven by MODIS data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yibo LIU; Weimin JU; Honglin HE; Shaoqiang WANG; Rui SUN; Yuandong ZHANG

    2013-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle.Accurately mapping the spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China is crucial for global carbon cycling study.In this study the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was employed to study the changes of NPP in China's ecosystems for the period from 2000 to 2010.The BEPS model was first validated using gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at typical flux sites and forest NPP measured at different regions.Then it was driven with leaf area index (LAI) inversed from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products and meteorological data interpolated from observations at753 national basic meteorological stations to simulate NPP at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 500 m from January 1,2000 to December 31,2010.Validations show that BEPS is able to capture the seasonal variations of tower-based GPP and the spatial variability of forest NPP in different regions of China.Estimated national total of annual NPP varied from 2.63 to 2.84Pg C·yr-1,averaging 2.74Pg C.yr-1 during the study period.Simulated terrestrial NPP shows spatial patterns decreasing from the east to the west and from the south to the north,in association with land cover types and climate.South-west China makes the largest contribution to the national total of NPP while NPP in the North-west account for only 3.97%of the national total.During the recent 11 years,the temporal changes of NPP were heterogamous.NPP increased in 63.8% of China's landmass,mainly in areas north of the Yangtze River and decreased in most areas of southern China,owing to the low temperature freezing in early 2008 and the severe drought in late 2009.

  10. Oncologist use of the Adjuvant! model for risk communication: a pilot study examining patient knowledge of 10-year prognosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hutton David W

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Our purpose was to collect preliminary data on newly diagnosed breast cancer patient knowledge of prognosis before and after oncology visits. Many oncologists use a validated prognostic software model, Adjuvant!, to estimate 10-year recurrence and mortality outcomes for breast cancer local and adjuvant therapy. Some oncologists are printing Adjuvant! screens to use as visual aids during consultations. No study has reported how such use of Adjuvant! printouts affects patient knowledge of prognosis. We hypothesized that Adjuvant! printouts would be associated with significant changes in the proportion of patients with accurate understanding of local therapy prognosis. Methods We recruited a convenience sample of 20 patients seen by 2 senior oncologists using Adjuvant! printouts of recurrence and mortality screens in our academic medical center. We asked patients for their estimates of local therapy recurrence and mortality risks and counted the number of patients whose estimates were within ± 5% of Adjuvant! before and after the oncology visit, testing whether pre/post changes were significant using McNemar's two-sided test at a significance level of 5%. Results Two patients (10% accurately estimated local therapy recurrence and mortality risks before the oncology visit, while seven out of twenty (35% were accurate afterwards (p = 0.125. Conclusion A majority of patients in our sample were inaccurate in estimating their local therapy recurrence and mortality risks, even after being shown printouts summarizing these risks during their oncology visits. Larger studies are needed to replicate or repudiate these preliminary findings, and test alternative methods of presenting risk estimates. Meanwhile, oncologists should be wary of relying exclusively on Adjuvant! printouts to communicate local therapy recurrence and mortality estimates to patients, as they may leave a majority of patients misinformed.

  11. Changes of net primary productivity in China during recent 11 years detected using an ecological model driven by MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yibo; Ju, Weimin; He, Honglin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Yuandong

    2013-03-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Accurately mapping the spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China is crucial for global carbon cycling study. In this study the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was employed to study the changes of NPP in China's ecosystems for the period from 2000 to 2010. The BEPS model was first validated using gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at typical flux sites and forest NPP measured at different regions. Then it was driven with leaf area index (LAI) inversed from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products and meteorological data interpolated from observations at 753 national basic meteorological stations to simulate NPP at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 500 m from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Validations show that BEPS is able to capture the seasonal variations of tower-based GPP and the spatial variability of forest NPP in different regions of China. Estimated national total of annual NPP varied from 2.63 to 2.84Pg C·yr-1, averaging 2.74 Pg C·yr-1 during the study period. Simulated terrestrial NPP shows spatial patterns decreasing from the east to the west and from the south to the north, in association with land cover types and climate. South-west China makes the largest contribution to the national total of NPP while NPP in the North-west account for only 3.97% of the national total. During the recent 11 years, the temporal changes of NPP were heterogamous. NPP increased in 63.8% of China's landmass, mainly in areas north of the Yangtze River and decreased in most areas of southern China, owing to the low temperature freezing in early 2008 and the severe drought in late 2009.

  12. Anti-diphtheria antibody seroprotection rates are similar 10 years after vaccination with dTpa or DTPa using a mathematical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheuvart, Brigitte; Burgess, Margaret; Zepp, Fred; Mertsola, Jussi; Wolter, Joanne; Schuerman, Lode

    2004-12-01

    The reduced antigen content diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis (dTpa) vaccine (Boostrixtrade mark) has been shown to induce a strong booster response to all the vaccine components in 4-6 year olds. However, anti-diphtheria antibody levels were observed to be lower when compared to the "full strength" paediatric DTPa vaccine. To assess the impact of this difference on long-term protection, a mathematical model was developed to predict diphtheria antibody decay over time. The model was based on a linear decrease in log-transformed antibody concentrations after the first year post-vaccination. When applied to data collected 3.5 years after vaccination of 4-6 year olds with either DTPa or dTpa, the model predicted that 10 years post-vaccination, 98.6% of subjects vaccinated with dTpa were likely to remain seroprotected against diphtheria, compared to 99.6% vaccinated with DTPa. Therefore, the difference observed in diphtheria antibody geometric mean concentrations 1 month after booster vaccination at 4-6 years with dTpa or DTPa is unlikely to be of clinical relevance 10 years later at the time of the adolescent booster.

  13. Perceptions of five-year competitive categories: model of how relative age influences competitiveness in masters sport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medic, Nikola; Young, Bradley W; Grove, J Robert

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contrasting perceptions of masters swimmers related to the first and fifth constituent years of a 5-year age category. Swimmers aged between 35 and 93 years (154 male, 184 female) were surveyed at the 2008 FINA World Masters Championships. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of the following five factors considered important for preparation, attendance, and success at masters competitions: awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity. One sample t-tests showed that masters swimmers are conscious of advantages that 5-year age categories afford to relatively-younger cohorts (i.e., those who are in the first year of any age category). They also perceive that, in the first compared to the fifth year of an age category, they have greater physiological capacity, engage in more training, have higher expectations to perform well, and are more motivated (all ps competitions than relatively older masters athletes. Key PointsThere are at least five psycho-social and physical factors (i.e., awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity) that may explain why relatively younger masters athletes are more likely to perform better and to participate more in masters competitions than relatively older masters athletes.Masters athletes are conscious of the advantage that 5-year age categories afford to relatively younger cohorts of athletes.Differential perceptions associated with the 5-year age categories might compromise masters athletes' continuity of sport competitiveness and underlying training.

  14. Home Environment and School Performance: A Ten-Year Follow-up and Examination of Three Models of Environmental Action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Robert H.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    Examines home environments of children aged ten and eleven when they were six months and two years old. Significant correlations were observed between the home environments at two and ten years, children's achievement test scores, and classroom behavior. Home environment at six months was related to a minimal number of classroom behaviors. (RJC)

  15. A Model for Reform. Two-Year Colleges in the Twenty-First Century: Breaking Down Barriers (TYC21).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, James C., Ed.

    This book describes the TYC21 project (Two-Year Colleges in the Twenty-First Century: Breaking Down Barriers), which provided a framework to implement reform in science, engineering, and physics education at two-year colleges via the cooperative efforts of faculty in cross-educational activities. The project sought to increase the quality of…

  16. Use of age-period-cohort models to estimate effects of vehicle age, year of crash and year of vehicle manufacture on driver injury and fatality rates in single vehicle crashes in New South Wales, 2003-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, R W G; Searson, D J

    2015-02-01

    A novel application of age-period-cohort methods are used to explain changes in vehicle based crash rates in New South Wales, Australia over the period 2003-2010. Models are developed using vehicle age, crash period and vehicle cohort to explain changes in the rate of single vehicle driver fatalities and injuries in vehicles less than 13 years of age. Large declines in risk are associated with vehicle cohorts built after about 1996. The decline in risk appears to have accelerated to 12 percent per vehicle cohort year for cohorts since 2004. Within each cohort, the risk of crashing appears to be a minimum at two years of age and increases as the vehicle ages beyond this. Period effects (i.e., other road safety measures) between 2003 and 2010 appear to have contributed to declines of up to about two percent per annum to the driver-fatality single vehicle crash rate, and possibly only negligible improvements to the driver-injury single vehicle crash rate. Vehicle improvements appear to have been responsible for a decline in per-vehicle crash risk of at least three percent per calendar year for both severity levels over the same period. Given the decline in risk associated with more recent vehicle cohorts and the dynamics of fleet turnover, continued declines in per-vehicle crash risk over coming years are almost certain. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45–64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon J

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Design, setting and participants Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45–64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45–64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Main outcome measures Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. Results We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45–64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030—a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030—a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030—a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030—a growth of 51.6%. Conclusions There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers’ health

  18. Economic costs of chronic disease through lost productive life years (PLYs) among Australians aged 45-64 years from 2015 to 2030: results from a microsimulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schofield, Deborah; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Cunich, Michelle M; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon J; Passey, Megan E

    2016-09-22

    To project the number of older workers with lost productive life years (PLYs) due to chronic disease and resultant lost income; and lost taxes and increased welfare payments from 2015 to 2030. Using a microsimulation model, Health&WealthMOD2030, the costs of chronic disease in Australians aged 45-64 were projected to 2030. The model integrates household survey data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers (SDACs) 2003 and 2009, output from long-standing microsimulation models (STINMOD (Static Incomes Model) and APPSIM (Australian Population and Policy Simulation Model)) used by various government departments, population and labour force growth data from Treasury, and disease trends data from the Australian Burden of Disease and Injury Study (2003). Respondents aged 45-64 years in the SDACs 2003 and 2009 formed the base population. Lost PLYs due to chronic disease; resultant lost income, lost taxes and increased welfare payments in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. We projected 380 000 (6.4%) people aged 45-64 years with lost PLYs in 2015, increasing to 462 000 (6.5%) in 2030-a 22% increase in absolute numbers. Those with lost PLYs experience the largest reduction in income than any other group in each year compared to those employed full time without a chronic disease, and this income gap widens over time. The total economic loss due to lost PLYs consisted of lost income modelled at $A12.6 billion in 2015, increasing to $A20.5 billion in 2030-a 62.7% increase. Additional costs to the government consisted of increased welfare payments at $A6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to $A7.3 billion in 2030-a 17.7% increase; and a loss of $A3.1 billion in taxes in 2015, increasing to $A4.7 billion in 2030-a growth of 51.6%. There is a need for greater investment in effective preventive health interventions which improve workers' health and work capacity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not

  19. APPROACH OF FIVE-YEAR-AVERAGE HAZARD RATES FOR THE BREAST CANCER PATIENTS AND ANALYSES OF PROGNOSTIC FACTORS-AN APPLICATION OF COX REGRESSION MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gai Xueliang; Fan Zhimin; Liu Guojin; Jacques Brisson

    1998-01-01

    Objective: To compare with five-year survival after surgery for the 116 breast cancer patients treated at the First Teaching Hospital (FTH) and the 866 breast cancer patients at Hopital du Saint-Sacrement (HSS). Methods:Using Cox regression model, after eliminating the confounders, to develop the comparison of the five-year average hazard rates between two hospitals and among the levels of prognostic factors. Results: It has significant difference for the old patients (50 years old or more)between the two hospitals. Conclusion: Tumor size at pathology and involvement of lymph nodes were important prognostic factors.

  20. Vanishing Boundaries between Science and Art: Modelling Effective Middle Years of Schooling Practice in Pre-Service Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paige, Kathryn; Whitney, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes an innovation in science pre-service education that endeavours to increase student engagement in learning and doing science in the middle years through integrating science, mathematics and art. (Contains 8 figures.)

  1. Perceptions of Five-Year Competitive Categories: Model of How Relative Age Influences Competitiveness in Masters Sport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medic, Nikola; Young, Bradley W.; Grove, J. Robert

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contrasting perceptions of masters swimmers related to the first and fifth constituent years of a 5-year age category. Swimmers aged between 35 and 93 years (154 male, 184 female) were surveyed at the 2008 FINA World Masters Championships. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of the following five factors considered important for preparation, attendance, and success at masters competitions: awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity. One sample t-tests showed that masters swimmers are conscious of advantages that 5-year age categories afford to relatively-younger cohorts (i.e., those who are in the first year of any age category). They also perceive that, in the first compared to the fifth year of an age category, they have greater physiological capacity, engage in more training, have higher expectations to perform well, and are more motivated (all ps < .001). Findings point to perceived psycho-social and physical factors that potentially explain why relatively younger masters athletes are more likely to perform better and to participate in masters competitions than relatively older masters athletes. Key Points There are at least five psycho-social and physical factors (i.e., awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity) that may explain why relatively younger masters athletes are more likely to perform better and to participate more in masters competitions than relatively older masters athletes. Masters athletes are conscious of the advantage that 5-year age categories afford to relatively younger cohorts of athletes. Differential perceptions associated with the 5-year age categories might compromise masters athletes’ continuity of sport competitiveness and underlying training. PMID:24421732

  2. Perceptions of Five-Year Competitive Categories: Model of How Relative Age Influences Competitiveness in Masters Sport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikola Medic

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to examine the contrasting perceptions of masters swimmers related to the first and fifth constituent years of a 5-year age category. Swimmers aged between 35 and 93 years (154 male, 184 female were surveyed at the 2008 FINA World Masters Championships. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of the following five factors considered important for preparation, attendance, and success at masters competitions: awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity. One sample t-tests showed that masters swimmers are conscious of advantages that 5-year age categories afford to relatively-younger cohorts (i.e., those who are in the first year of any age category. They also perceive that, in the first compared to the fifth year of an age category, they have greater physiological capacity, engage in more training, have higher expectations to perform well, and are more motivated (all ps < .001. Findings point to perceived psycho-social and physical factors that potentially explain why relatively younger masters athletes are more likely to perform better and to participate in masters competitions than relatively older masters athletes.

  3. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  4. The fate of persistent organic pollutants in the North Sea. Multiple year model simulations of {gamma}-HCH, {alpha}-HCH and PCB 153

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ilyina, T.P. [Hawaii Univ., Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States). Dept. of Oceanography

    2007-07-01

    Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are harmful to human health and to the environment. Their fate in the marine environment is not yet fully understood. An ocean model (FANTOM) has been developed to investigate the fate of selected POPs in the North Sea. The main focus of the model is on quantifying the distribution of POPs and their aquatic pathways. This is the first time that a spatially-resolved, measurement-based ocean transport model has been used to study POP-like substances, at least on the regional scale. The model was applied for the southern North Sea and tested by studying the behaviour of g-HCH, a-HCH and PCB 153 in sea water. This model study proves that transport models, such as FANTOM, are capable of reproducing realistic multi-year temporal and spatial trends of selected POPs and can be used to address further scientific questions. (orig.)

  5. Case Based Metabolic Unit (CBMU: A Model for Better Understanding of Metabolic Pathways in the Second Year Extended Modular Program Medical Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanaa Eissa

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We designed a case based metabolic unit (CBMU which is a  hybrid learning model using case based learning and interactive lectures for 2nd year EMP medical students (n:113 who firstly attended blood module (Classical model in learning metabolism and then locomotor module (CBMU. At the end of both modules, they were evaluated through MCQ exams and the results of both exams were compared. The Majority of students (97-100% opined that case based metabolic unit learning model was interesting, motivating, and better than the classical model in understanding metabolic pathways and making learning stick. 99% of them demanded the application of this learning model in future biochemistry courses. Improvement in student’s exam scores ensures that they grasped the knowledge by this model. In conclusion, CBMU is a useful learning tool for metabolic pathways using human cases to aid in connecting theory to practice which is positively reflected on student’s academic performance.

  6. General and specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder factors of children 4 to 6 years of age: An exploratory structural equation modeling approach to assessing symptom multidimensionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Víctor B; Ponce, Fernando P; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Benito; Núñez, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    We tested first-order factor and bifactor models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to adequately summarize the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, (DSM-IV-TR) symptoms observed in a Spanish sample of preschoolers and kindergarteners. Six ESEM and CFA models were estimated based on teacher evaluations of the behavior of 638 children 4 to 6 years of age. An ESEM bifactor model with a central dimension plus 3 specific factors (inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity) showed the best fit and interpretability. Strict invariance between the sexes was observed. The bifactor model provided a solution to previously encountered inconsistencies in the factorial models of ADHD in young children. However, the low reliability of the specific factors casts doubt on the utility of the subscales for ADHD measurement. More research is necessary to clarify the nature of G and S factors of ADHD.

  7. A review of 40 years of hydrological science and practice in southern Africa using the Pitman rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    The 40th anniversary of the initial development of the Pitman rainfall-runoff (developed in South Africa and widely applied throughout southern Africa) approximately coincides with the end of the IAHS PUB programme and the start of a new decade focussing on hydrological change (Panta Rhei) and society. The paper reviews the developments and applications of the Pitman model in the context of the appropriate outcomes of PUB and the proposed future directions of Panta Rhei. The focus of development of the Pitman model has been dominated by practical applications, while PUB was largely dominated by science issues. While some of the PUB principles have been applied with the Pitman model, there are others that are deemed inappropriate for practical modelling and others that would almost certainly benefit the Pitman model applications in the future. The paper includes discussions of the model structure, input data, parameters and output evaluations - all in the context of uncertainty. The capabilities of the model to address societal development impacts are also discussed and a brief example of an uncertainty approach to applying the model is provided. The conclusions are that some developments of the Pitman model anticipated more recent international developments, while others have not been ignored even if further efforts are required to effectively implement them. Perhaps the largest gap in applying uncertainty principles in practice is how to use them in water resources decision making.

  8. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  9. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of 3D Vascular Stereoscopic Models in Anatomy Instruction for First Year Medical Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Dongmei; Wilson, Timothy D.; Rockhold, Robin W.; Lehman, Michael N.; Lynch, James C.

    2017-01-01

    The head and neck region is one of the most complex areas featured in the medical gross anatomy curriculum. The effectiveness of using three-dimensional (3D) models to teach anatomy is a topic of much discussion in medical education research. However, the use of 3D stereoscopic models of the head and neck circulation in anatomy education has not…

  10. On the (in)consistency of a multi-model ensemble of the past 30 years land surface state.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutra, Emanuel; Schellekens, Jaap; Beck, Hylke; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2016-04-01

    Global land-surface and hydrological models are a fundamental tool in understanding the land-surface state and evolution either coupled to atmospheric models for climate and weather predictions or in stand-alone mode. In this study we take a recently developed dataset consisting in stand-alone simulations by 10 global hydrological and land surface models sharing the same atmospheric forcing for the period 1979-2012 (the eart2Observe dataset). This multi-model ensemble provides the first freely available dataset with such a spatial/temporal scale that allows for a characterization of the multi-model characteristics such as inter-model consistency and error-spread relationship. We will present a metric for the ensemble consistency using the concept of potential predictability, that can be interpreted as a proxy for the multi-model agreement. Initial results point to regions of low inter-model agreement in the polar and tropical regions, the latter also present when comparing globally available precipitation datasets. In addition to this, the discharge ensemble spread around the ensemble mean was compared to the error of the ensemble mean for several large-scale and small scale basins. This showed a general under-estimation of the ensemble spread, particularly in tropical basins, suggesting that the current dataset lacks the representation of the precipitation uncertainty in the input meteorological data.

  11. Evaluation of the Effectiveness of 3D Vascular Stereoscopic Models in Anatomy Instruction for First Year Medical Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Dongmei; Wilson, Timothy D.; Rockhold, Robin W.; Lehman, Michael N.; Lynch, James C.

    2017-01-01

    The head and neck region is one of the most complex areas featured in the medical gross anatomy curriculum. The effectiveness of using three-dimensional (3D) models to teach anatomy is a topic of much discussion in medical education research. However, the use of 3D stereoscopic models of the head and neck circulation in anatomy education has not…

  12. Is it time to Leave Behind the Revised Hierarchical Model of Bilingual Language Processing after Fifteen Years of Service?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brysbaert, Marc; Duyck, Wouter

    2010-01-01

    The Revised Hierarchical Model (RHM) of bilingual language processing dominates current thinking on bilingual language processing. Recently, basic tenets of the model have been called into question. First, there is little evidence for separate lexicons. Second, there is little evidence for language selective access. Third, the inclusion of…

  13. The Effect of Teaching Model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ toward Students’ Achievement in Learning Mathematic at X Years Class SMA Negeri 1 Banuhampu 2013/2014 Academic Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeni, N.; Suryabayu, E. P.; Handayani, T.

    2017-02-01

    Based on the survey showed that mathematics teacher still dominated in teaching and learning process. The process of learning is centered on the teacher while the students only work based on instructions provided by the teacher without any creativity and activities that stimulate students to explore their potential. Realized the problem above the writer interested in finding the solution by applying teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’. The purpose of his research is to know whether teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than conventional teaching in teaching mathematic. The type of the research is quasi experiment by Randomized Control test Group Only Design. The population in this research were all X years class students. The sample is chosen randomly after doing normality, homogeneity test and average level of students’ achievement. As the sample of this research was X.7’s class as experiment class used teaching model learning cycles 5E and X.8’s class as control class used conventional teaching. The result showed us that the students achievement in the class that used teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than the class which did not use the model.

  14. Using multi-year data to evaluate performance of one-layer and multi-layer models in snow hydrology: an example from Col De Porte

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Morin, Samuel; Carmagnola, Carlo Maria; Ghezzi, Antonio; Lejeune, Yves

    2016-04-01

    Snow mass dynamics prediction represents an important task for snow hydrologists, since snow on the ground influences local/global water availability and streamflow timing and amount. Different modeling tools have been formulated for decades to predict snowmelt runoff dynamics and therefore to integrate snow mass dynamics in watershed hydrology modeling. Typical variables of interest include snow depth, snow bulk density, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt runoff. All these variables have been monitored at several locations worldwide for several decades in order to evaluate model performance. As a result, several multi-year datasets are now available to perform extensive evaluation tests. In this presentation, we report an example of these evaluations by discussing the performance of two models of different complexity in reproducing observed data of snow dynamics at a site in French Alps (Col De Porte, 1325 m AMSL), where 18 continuous-time years of observations are available. We consider Crocus as an example of multi-layer physically-based complex models and HyS (De Michele et al. 2013) as an example of a one-layer temperature-index models. Using multi-year data allows us to compare models performance over long periods of time, thus considering different climatic and snow conditions. Moreover, the use of continuous-time data allows to evaluate models performance at different temporal resolutions. De Michele, C., Avanzi, F., Ghezzi, A., and Jommi, C.: Investigating the dynamics of bulk snow density in dry and wet conditions using a one-dimensional model, The Cryosphere, 7, 433-444, doi:10.5194/tc-7-433-2013, 2013.

  15. The Power of Relevant Models: Using a Corpus of Student Writing to Introduce Disciplinary Practices in a First Year Composition Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Jack A.; Römer, Ute; Roberson, Audrey

    2015-01-01

    In attempts to find appropriate and authentic materials for students who are developing their academic writing skills, instructors often turn to works written by professional academics. However, genres such as published research articles and textbooks in specific disciplines may not be the most suitable models for what first year composition…

  16. Mass screening on abdominal aortic aneurysm in men aged 60 to 65 years in The Netherlands. Impact on life expectancy and cost-effectiveness using a Markov model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boll, A.P.M.; Severens, J.L.; Verbeek, A.L.M.; Vliet, J.A. van der

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To predict the costs and effects on life expectancy of an AAA screening programme. METHODS: A Markov model was designed to compare the effects of a single screening for a cohort of men 60-65 years with the current no screening strategy. The following health states were distinguished: no

  17. 40 CFR 86.007-11 - Emission standards and supplemental requirements for 2007 and later model year diesel heavy-duty...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 1985 and Later Model Year New Gasoline Fueled, Natural Gas-Fueled, Liquefied Petroleum Gas-Fueled and... derived from averaging, banking, or trading programs. (ii)(A) Non-Methane Hydrocarbons (NMHC) for engines fueled with either diesel fuel, natural gas, or liquefied petroleum gas. 0.14 grams per brake...

  18. How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model. Appendix A & B

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Endowment for the Arts, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents two appendices supporting the "How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model" report. In Appendix A, brief descriptions of relevant studies and datasets for each node in the "How Art Works" system map are presented. This appendix is meant to supply…

  19. Parity non-conservation in beta-decay of nuclei: revisiting experiment and theory fifty years after. IV. Parity breaking models

    CERN Document Server

    Georgiev, Mladen

    2008-01-01

    This part offers a survey of models proposed to cope with the symmetry-breaking challenge. Among them are the two-component neutrinos, the neutrino twins, the universal Fermi interaction, etc. Moreover, the broken discrete symmetries in physics are very much on the agenda and may occupy considerable time for LHC experiments next year aimed at revealing the symmetry-breaking mechanisms.

  20. 40 CFR 86.709-99 - In-use emission standards for 1999 and later model year light-duty trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 19 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false In-use emission standards for 1999 and later model year light-duty trucks. 86.709-99 Section 86.709-99 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CONTROL OF EMISSIONS FROM NEW AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES (CONTINUED)...