WorldWideScience

Sample records for model year 2017-2025

  1. 76 FR 48758 - 2017-2025 Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards: Supplemental Notice of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-09

    ... comment. The evaluation will be based on (1) A holistic assessment of all of the factors considered by the... gallon/mile. The test methods used to calculate these credits will be the same as EPA's. 5. Treatment of... time. Therefore, treatment of E85 FFVs will continue as the MY2016 program, based on actual usage of...

  2. 76 FR 76932 - Public Hearings for 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-09

    .../otaq/climate/regulations.htm or by searching the public dockets (NHTSA-2010-0131 (for the proposed rule... emissions from and improve fuel economy for light-duty vehicles for model years 2017-2025. The proposal... Program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of light-duty vehicles for model years 2017-2025. The proposal...

  3. 77 FR 2028 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-13

    .../otaq/climate/regulations.htm or by searching the public dockets (NHTSA-2010-0131 (for the proposed rule... EPA's Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm . NHTSA and EPA will consider all... vehicles for model years 2017-2025. On May 21, 2010, President Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum...

  4. California Plug-In Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projections: 2017-2025 - Future Infrastructure Needs for Reaching the State's Zero Emission-Vehicle Deployment Goals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, Eric W [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rames, Clement L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bedir, Abdulkadir [California Energy Commission; Crisostomo, Noel [California Energy Commission; Allen, Jennifer [California Energy Commission

    2018-03-27

    This report analyzes plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) infrastructure needs in California from 2017 to 2025 in a scenario where the State's zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) deployment goals are achieved by household vehicles. The statewide infrastructure needs are evaluated by using the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Projection tool, which incorporates representative statewide travel data from the 2012 California Household Travel Survey. The infrastructure solution presented in this assessment addresses two primary objectives: (1) enabling travel for battery electric vehicles and (2) maximizing the electric vehicle-miles traveled for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The analysis is performed at the county-level for each year between 2017 and 2025 while considering potential technology improvements. The results from this study present an infrastructure solution that can facilitate market growth for PEVs to reach the State's ZEV goals by 2025. The overall results show a need for 99k-130k destination chargers, including workplaces and public locations, and 9k-25k fast chargers. The results also show a need for dedicated or shared residential charging solutions at multi-family dwellings, which are expected to host about 120k PEVs by 2025. An improvement to the scientific literature, this analysis presents the significance of infrastructure reliability and accessibility on the quantification of charger demand.

  5. Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. This report details compliance for model year 2015, fiscal year 2016.

  6. One Hundred Years of Bohr Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    In this article I shall present a brief review of the hundred-year young Bohr model of the atom. In particular, I will first introduce the Thomson and the Rutherford models of atoms, their shortcom- ings and then discuss in some detail the develop- ment of the atomic model by Niels Bohr. Fur- ther, I will mention its refinements at ...

  7. 75 FR 76337 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards: Supplemental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-08

    ... agencies should break the MY 2017- 2025 standard setting process into three separate rulemakings, rather than establishing standards for all of these MYs in the current rulemaking process. OEM recommendations... provide a strong basis for setting a standard of at least 6 percent annual improvement rate, which they...

  8. 77 FR 64051 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-18

    ... and address global climate change. Need for Correction As published, the final regulations... 2014 2015 2016 2017-2025 Passenger Cars 150,922 177,238 177,366 178,652 180,497 182,134 195,264 Light...

  9. One Hundred Years of Bohr Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    science at school and college level. In this article I shall present a brief review of the hundred-year young Bohr model of the atom. In particular, I will first introduce the Thomson and .... This model, despite being successful, had one major problem. ... This tempted several people to look for an empirical formula which would ...

  10. The standard model 30 years of glory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefrancois, J.

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e + ,e - ), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e + e - experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  11. 49 CFR 537.7 - Pre-model year and mid-model year reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...) of this section for the manufacturer's passenger automobiles for the current model year. (2) After...) State the projected average fuel economy for the manufacturer's automobiles determined in accordance with § 537.9 and based upon the fuel economy values and projected sales figures provided under...

  12. Motor vehicle MPG and market shares report: model year 1985

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.

    1986-02-01

    Sales of automobiles jumped dramatically from 10,211,058 units in model year 1984 to 10,968,515 units in model year 1985, an incease of 7.4%. Light trucks had an even more striking increase in sales, rising 17.2% from the previous model year. The sales-weighted fuel economy for the entire automobile fleet continued to climb in model year 1985, from 26.3 mpg in model year 1984 to 27.0 mpg in this model year. The sales-weighted fuel economies in light trucks have remained relatively constant since model year 1979. The trends of various vehicle characteristics from model year 1978 through 1985 are illustrated. 34 figs., 45 tabs.

  13. 20 years of ultrasound contrast agent modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faez, T.; Emmer, M.; Kooiman, K.; Versluis, Michel; van der Steen, A.F.W.; de Jong, N.

    2013-01-01

    The merits of ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) were already known in the 1960s. It was, however, not until the 1990s that UCAs were clinically approved and marketed. In these years, it was realized that the UCAs are not just efficient ultrasound scatterers, but that their main constituent, the

  14. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  15. Vermont travel model 2010-2011 (year 3) report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    This report is being prepared under Task 1 of the Maintenance, Operation and Evaluation of the VTrans Statewide Transportation Model contract with the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans) in the 2010-2011 year of the contract. The objectiv...

  16. 40 CFR 600.512-01 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... listing of both domestically and nondomestically produced car lines as determined in § 600.511 and the... model year report must include the following information: (1) All fuel economy data used in the labeling... economy value for each model type of the manufacturer's product line calculated according to § 600.510(b...

  17. Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

  18. Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oteros, J.; García-Mozo, H.; Hervás-Martínez, C.; Galán, C.

    2013-07-01

    It is now widely accepted that weather conditions occurring several months prior to the onset of flowering have a major influence on various aspects of olive reproductive phenology, including flowering intensity. Given the variable characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, we analyse its influence on the registered variations in olive flowering intensity in southern Spain, and relate them to previous climatic parameters using a year-clustering approach, as a first step towards an olive flowering phenology model adapted to different year categories. Phenological data from Cordoba province (Southern Spain) for a 30-year period (1982-2011) were analysed. Meteorological and phenological data were first subjected to both hierarchical and "K-means" clustering analysis, which yielded four year-categories. For this classification purpose, three different models were tested: (1) discriminant analysis; (2) decision-tree analysis; and (3) neural network analysis. Comparison of the results showed that the neural-networks model was the most effective, classifying four different year categories with clearly distinct weather features. Flowering-intensity models were constructed for each year category using the partial least squares regression method. These category-specific models proved to be more effective than general models. They are better suited to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, due to the different response of plants to the same environmental stimuli depending on the previous weather conditions in any given year. The present detailed analysis of the influence of weather patterns of different years on olive phenology will help us to understand the short-term effects of climate change on olive crop in the Mediterranean area that is highly affected by it.

  19. 76 FR 26996 - Notice of Intent To Prepare an Environmental Impact Statement for New Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-10

    ... greater certainty and incentives for long-term innovation by manufacturers, NHTSA is planning to set CAFE... impacts of new fuel economy standards for model years 2017-2025 passenger cars and light trucks that NHTSA... rulemaking (NPRM), NHTSA intends to propose Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for model years...

  20. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  1. Luttinger model the first 50 years and some new directions

    CERN Document Server

    Mattis, Daniel C

    2014-01-01

    The Luttinger Model is the only model of many-fermion physics with legitimate claims to be both exactly and completely solvable. In several respects it plays the same role in many-body theory as does the 2D Ising model in statistical physics. Interest in the Luttinger model has increased steadily ever since its introduction half a century ago. The present volume starts with reprints of the seminal papers in which it was originally introduced and solved, and continues with several contributions setting out the landscape of the principal advances of the last fifty years and of prominent new dire

  2. Challenges in validating model results for first year ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Eastwood, Steinar; Xie, Jiping; Aaboe, Signe; Bertino, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the quality of model results for the distribution of first year ice, a comparison with a product based on observations from satellite-borne instruments has been performed. Such a comparison is not straightforward due to the contrasting algorithms that are used in the model product and the remote sensing product. The implementation of the validation is discussed in light of the differences between this set of products, and validation results are presented. The model product is the daily updated 10-day forecast from the Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in CMEMS. The forecasts are produced with the assimilative ocean prediction system TOPAZ. Presently, observations of sea ice concentration and sea ice drift are introduced in the assimilation step, but data for sea ice thickness and ice age (or roughness) are not included. The model computes the age of the ice by recording and updating the time passed after ice formation as sea ice grows and deteriorates as it is advected inside the model domain. Ice that is younger than 365 days is classified as first year ice. The fraction of first-year ice is recorded as a tracer in each grid cell. The Ocean and Sea Ice Thematic Assembly Centre in CMEMS redistributes a daily product from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF of gridded sea ice conditions which include "ice type", a representation of the separation of regions between those infested by first year ice, and those infested by multi-year ice. The ice type is parameterized based on data for the gradient ratio GR(19,37) from SSMIS observations, and from the ASCAT backscatter parameter. This product also includes information on ambiguity in the processing of the remote sensing data, and the product's confidence level, which have a strong seasonal dependency.

  3. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  4. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  5. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  6. Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  7. Model Year 2018 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2017-12-07

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  8. 15 years of food-chain modeling in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gheorghe, R.; Galeriu, D.; Apostoaie, I.; Gheorghe, D.

    2002-01-01

    In the very begin of Chernobyl accident, the high contamination of food, the large variability and the unexpected behavior posed many problems in order to assess the radiological consequences. A simple dynamic food-chain model was built in early May and used for our first assessment on future food contamination and overall impact of Chernobyl in Romania. This quite primitive model show remarkable performance when compared in late 86 and 87 with measurements and our projection of dose was close to a factor two with 10 years later post assessment. After the slowing down of radiological stress we developed a more advanced, process level model of food chain, using not only all literature available but also all local measurements with quality assurance. This model, named LINDOZ, was first internationally applied in the frame of A4 scenario in BIOMOVS 1. and presented in the 1990 Stockholm conference. It was the first time when fallout solubility and foliar absorption were introduced in such a model, explaining very well the dynamics of grass and milk contamination. Upgrades of the model were done concerning deposition and retention and LINDOZ91 was successfully applied in international comparisons VAMP and BIOMOVS 2., including blind tests. Using local expertise and certified data, correlation between probability distribution of deposition and food contamination were used and successfully applied to predict Cs body content distribution in VAMP scenario. Extension to lake-fish was done and tested with excellent results in BIOMOVS 2. In 1994, the model was applied in the first attempt to assess food contamination in Iput region and this old results have been compared recently with those obtained last year by other modelers using updated scenario information. The key points in LINDOZ and its performances in international comparison exercises are presented. In 90'years the German model ECOSYS was spread in Europe and a variant (FDMT) was developed as a food-chain model for

  9. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  10. 76 FR 72702 - Environmental Impacts Statements; Notice of Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-25

    ..., Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards Passenger Car and Light Trucks Model Years 2017-2025, To.... 20110400, Draft EIS, BIA, NV, K Road Moapa Solar Generation Facility, Moapa Band of Paiutes (Tribe), to... PV Solar Generating Station and Associated Infrastructure, Clark County, NV, Comment Period Ends: 01...

  11. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  12. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  13. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  14. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  17. Model Year 2006 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2005-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  18. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  19. Model Year 2008 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  20. Model Year 2007 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  1. Hydra, a fruitful model system for 270 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galliot, Brigitte

    2012-01-01

    The discovery of Hydra regeneration by Abraham Trembley in 1744 promoted much scientific curiosity thanks to his clever design of experimental strategies away from the natural environment. Since then, this little freshwater cnidarian polyp flourished as a potent and fruitful model system. Here, we review some general biological questions that benefitted from Hydra research, such as the nature of embryogenesis, neurogenesis, induction by organizers, sex reversal, symbiosis, aging, feeding behavior, light regulation, multipotency of somatic stem cells, temperature-induced cell death, neuronal transdifferentiation, to cite only a few. To understand how phenotypes arise, theoricists also chose Hydra to model patterning and morphogenetic events, providing helpful concepts such as reaction-diffusion, positional information, and autocatalysis combined with lateral inhibition. Indeed, throughout these past 270 years, scientists used transplantation and grafting experiments, together with tissue, cell and molecular labelings, as well as biochemical procedures, in order to establish the solid foundations of cell and developmental biology. Nowadays, thanks to transgenic, genomic and proteomic tools, Hydra remains a promising model for these fields, but also for addressing novel questions such as evolutionary mechanisms, maintenance of dynamic homeostasis, regulation of stemness, functions of autophagy, cell death, stress response, innate immunity, bioactive compounds in ecosystems, ecotoxicant sensing and science communication.

  2. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  3. Model year 2010 Ford Fusion Level-1 testing report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rask, E.; Bocci, D.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H.; Energy Systems

    2010-11-23

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Ford Fusion was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of vehicle-level testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity. Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network information, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles, and A/C usage cycles were conducted. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database. The major results are shown in this report. Given the benchmark nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and sought to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from an exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current/voltage from a DC power analyzer, and CAN bus data such as engine speed, engine load, and electric machine operation. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Fusion and provide insight into unique features of its operation and design.

  4. Cupola modeling research: Phase 2 (Year one), Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-11-20

    Objective was to develop a mathematical model of the cupola furnace (cast iron production) in on-line and off-line process control and optimization. In Phase I, the general structure of the heat transfer, fluid flow, and chemical models were laid out, providing reasonable descriptions of cupola behavior with a one-dimensional representation. Work was also initiated on a two-dimensional model. Phase II was focused on perfecting the one-dimensional model. The contributions include these from MIT, Michigan University, and GM.

  5. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-05-11

    This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

  6. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: intervention model fiscal year 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the researcher, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in terms of crashes avoided, injuries avoided, ...

  7. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  8. An Innovative Learning Model for Computation in First Year Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkes, E. J.; Loch, B. I.; Stace, A. W.

    2005-01-01

    MATLAB is a sophisticated software tool for numerical analysis and visualization. The University of Queensland has adopted Matlab as its official teaching package across large first year mathematics courses. In the past, the package has met severe resistance from students who have not appreciated their computational experience. Several main…

  9. Two-Year Apprenticeships--A Successful Model of Training?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammermann, Marlise; Stalder, Barbara E.; Hattich, Achim

    2011-01-01

    Educational policy is asked to support young people in their successful transition from education to employment. In Switzerland, a two-year apprenticeship with Federal VET Certificate was established in 2002 aimed at increasing the employability of low-achieving school leavers. It is a low-threshold VET programme offering standardised vocational…

  10. The early years of string theory: The dual resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramond, P.

    1987-10-01

    This paper reviews the past quantum mechanical history of the dual resonance model which is an early string theory. The content of this paper is listed as follows: historical review, the Veneziano amplitude, the operator formalism, the ghost story, and the string story

  11. 40 CFR 600.512-86 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) A listing of both domestically and nondomestically produced car lines as determined in § 600.511 and... must include the following information: (1) All fuel economy data used in the labeling calculations and... fuel economy value for each model type of the manufacturer's product line calculated according to § 600...

  12. Year-Round Schools: The Star of the Sea Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, Paul S.

    1994-01-01

    Star of the Sea School, located in the Wai'alae-kahala area of Honolulu, implemented year-round schooling (YRS) in 1991. This publication describes the history of YRS, the status of YRS in the Pacific region, and outcomes of the Star of the Sea's program. The private Catholic K-8 school adheres to a 45-10 plan, which includes 180 regular school…

  13. The "Biopsychosocial Model": 40 years of application in Psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, G

    2017-01-01

    In 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "TheIn 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "Theneed for a new medical model: A challenge for biomedicine", introducing the term Biopsychosocial Model. This model basedon the results of Engel's studies in ulcerative colitis, depression and psychogenic pain, constituted a challenge for biomedicineand the biomedical model. The basic principles of the model included the biological, psychological and social dimensions of the person's life and theperception that the person suffers as a whole and not as isolated organs. The doctor should use a holistic approach regardingillness and should consider his/her relation with the patient socially equal. The personality and the emotional reserves of thepatient, as well as the particular environmental conditions in which the person lives in should be taken into account. There is no doubt that the biopsychosocial model has established a more empathetic and compassionate approach in medical practice. Already since 1936, the general adaptation syndrome had been proposed by the Austrian-Canadian endocrinologist HansSeley (1907-1982), who emphasized that psychological stressful factors may have injurious consequences on health, while theresponse systems to stress may be dysregulated not only by genetic factors, but also from experiences and stressful life events,as well as by harmful behaviors such as smoking, alcohol consumption and lack of physical exercise. Psychosocial factors may co-determine the patient's vulnerability and the illness's severity and course. The biopsychosocialmodel consider the interactions with genetic susceptibility, personality, stressful events and, generally, with the patient's socialcontext. Environmental factors increase the probability of the clinical expression of a mental disorder, play a role in the time

  14. Aggressive symbolic model identification in 13 year-old youths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Vidal

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Although a great amount of research has been carried out about the effects of media on the audience, few studies deal with the process that determines why the viewers identify with a specific symbolic model instead of choosing any other. In this descriptive study we try to highlight similarity identification, focusing on aggressive model identification. A sample of 203 participants, both male and female, aged 13, and with a high socioeconomic level viewed different films sequences. They were asked to answer to a questionnaire both before and after watching the clip. This questionnaire included an adjective list about the traits that best defined themselves, their favorite characters, and characters they didn’t like. Results show a clear correspondence between the participants’ self-perceived traits and those perceived for the main characters in the film. Self-perceived traits were opposed to those perceived in the main characters opponents.

  15. Modelling loans and deposits during electoral years i n Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae - Marius JULA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effect of electoral years on loans and deposits for population in Romania. Using monthly data regarding the total loans and deposits, we identify the significance of the electoral timing on population´s behavior regarding financial decisions. We estimate that there are small changes in population´s affinity for increase in the indebtedness or for savings. We use dummy variables for electoral periods, and when these are econometrically significant there is an evidence of the influence of the electoral timings in population´s financial decisions.

  16. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov) notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate.

  17. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  18. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Intervention Model in fiscal year 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    This report presents results from FMCSAs Roadside Intervention Model for fiscal year 2007. The model estimates the number of crashes avoided, as well as injuries avoided and lives saved, as a result of the Agencys roadside inspection program. T...

  19. Motor vehicle mpg and market shares report: first six months of model year 1984

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.; Greene, D.L.; Till, L.E.

    1984-10-01

    This issue of the publication reports the sales, market shares, estimated sales-weighted fuel economies, and other estimated sales-weighted vehicle characteristics of automobiles and light trucks for the first six months of model year 1984 and for the previous five model years. Comparisons and observations are made on the trends in these vehicles from one model year to the next. An improved methodology is used to allocate the yearly mpg changes among eight components, rather than the four reported in the previous reports. Sales of automobiles showed an increase of 21.8% from the first half of model year 1983. An even more striking increase was observed in the sales of light trucks: 42.2% from the first half of model year 1983. The first six months of model year 1984 experienced a gain of 0.21 mpg in sales-weighted automobile fuel economy. In contrast, light trucks experienced a loss of 0.83 mpg in fuel economy, from 20.52 mpg in model year 1983 to 19.69 mpg in the first half of model year 1984.

  20. 49 CFR 536.6 - Treatment of credits earned prior to model year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL... compliance category before model year 2008 may be applied by the manufacturer that earned them to carryback... during and after model year 2008 may be applied by the manufacturer that earned them to carryback plans...

  1. Understanding Weight Management Perceptions in First-Year College Students Using the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bhibha M.; Evans, Ellen M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine weight management barriers, using the Health Belief Model, in first-year college students. Participants: First-year college students (n = 45), with data collected in April, May, and November 2013. Methods: Nominal group technique sessions (n = 8) were conducted. Results: First-year students recognize benefits to weight…

  2. A Year-Long Comparison of GPS TEC and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlongo, N. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Cnossen, I.; Wu, C.

    2018-02-01

    The prevalence of GPS total electron content (TEC) observations has provided an opportunity for extensive global ionosphere-thermosphere model validation efforts. This study presents a year-long data-model comparison using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). For the entire year of 2010, each model was run and compared to GPS TEC observations. The results were binned according to season, latitude, local time, and magnetic local time. GITM was found to overestimate the TEC everywhere, except on the midlatitude nightside, due to high O/N2 ratios. TIE-GCM produced much less TEC and had lower O/N2 ratios and neutral wind speeds. Seasonal and regional biases in the models are discussed along with ideas for model improvements and further validation efforts.

  3. Adolescents Exiting Homelessness Over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

    OpenAIRE

    Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua

    2009-01-01

    The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM), demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal data collected from 183 newly homeless adolescents followed over 2 years in Los Angeles, CA. In support of RAAM, unadjusted odds of exiting at 2 yea...

  4. A Predictive Model of Student Loan Default at a Two-Year Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Chanda Denea

    2015-01-01

    This study explored whether a predictive model of student loan default could be developed with data from an institution's three-year cohort default rate report. The study used borrower data provided by a large two-year community college. Independent variables under investigation included total undergraduate Stafford student loan debt, total number…

  5. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 1 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2013-01-01

    On September 22, 2012, NSF announced its decision to fund a three-year project, "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO). In the first year of grant operation, MIAEO has invited 18 high school students, two K-12 teachers, and two CSUB student assistants to conduct research explorations in the fields of…

  6. Predictors and Characteristics of Erikson's Life Cycle Model Among Men: A 32-Year Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westermeyer, Jerry F.

    2004-01-01

    To assess Erikson's life cycle model, 86 men, initially selected for health, were prospectively studied at age 21, and reassessed 32 years later at age 53. Using the Vaillant and Milofsky (1980) modification of Erikson's model, 48 men (56%) achieved generativity, an advanced developmental stage, at follow-up. Results generally support Erikson's…

  7. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  8. Mathematical Modelling in the Junior Secondary Years: An Approach Incorporating Mathematical Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, James; Carter, Merilyn; Cooper, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models are conceptual processes that use mathematics to describe, explain, and/or predict the behaviour of complex systems. This article is written for teachers of mathematics in the junior secondary years (including out-of-field teachers of mathematics) who may be unfamiliar with mathematical modelling, to explain the steps involved…

  9. Adolescents Exiting Homelessness over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua

    2009-01-01

    The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM) demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal…

  10. Nano-Continuum Modeling of a Nuclear Glass Specimen Altered for 25 Years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, Carl

    2014-01-06

    The purpose of this contribution is to report on preliminary nano-continuum scale modeling of nuclear waste glass corrosion. The focus of the modeling is an experiment involving a French glass SON68 specimen leached for 25 years in a granitic environment. In this report, we focus on capturing the nano-scale concentration profiles. We use a high resolution continuum model with a constant grid spacing of 1 nanometer to investigate the glass corrosion mechanisms.

  11. Development of NIR calibration models to assess year-to-year variation in total non-structural carbohydrates in grasses using PLSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shetty, Nisha; Gislum, René; Jensen, Anne Mette Dahl

    2012-01-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used in combination with chemometrics to quantify total nonstructural carbohydrates (TNC) in grass samples in order to overcome year-to-year variation. A total of 1103 above-ground plant and root samples were collected from different field and pot experiments...... and with various experimental designs in the period from 2001 to 2005. A calibration model was developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The calibration model on a large data set spanning five years demonstrated that quantification of TNC using NIR spectroscopy was possible with an acceptable low...... to improve model performance, but still it was not possible to avoid year-to-year variation using iPLS, however iPLS simplified the interpretation of the regression model. The best option was to expand the database with samples from a new year, to include these samples in the calibration model and to apply...

  12. A 10-year prognostic model for patients with suspected angina attending a chest pain clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhri, Neha; Perel, Pablo; Clayton, Tim; Feder, Gene S; Hemingway, Harry; Timmis, Adam

    2016-06-01

    Diagnostic models used in the management of suspected angina provide no explicit information about prognosis. We present a new prognostic model of 10-year coronary mortality in patients presenting for the first time with suspected angina to complement the Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability. A multicentre cohort of 8762 patients with suspected angina was followed up for a median of 10 years during which 233 coronary deaths were observed. Developmental (n=4412) and validation (n=4350) prognostic models based on clinical data available at first presentation showed good performance with close agreement and the final model utilised all 8762 patients to maximise power. The prognostic model showed strong associations with coronary mortality for age, sex, chest pain typicality, smoking status, diabetes, pulse rate, and ECG findings. Model discrimination was good (C statistic 0.83), patients in the highest risk quarter accounting for 173 coronary deaths (10-year risk of death: 8.7%) compared with a total of 60 deaths in the three lower risk quarters. When the model was simplified to incorporate only Diamond-Forrester factors (age, sex and character of symptoms) it underestimated coronary mortality risk, particularly in patients with reversible risk factors. For the first time in patients with suspected angina, a prognostic model is presented based on simple clinical factors available at the initial cardiological assessment. The model discriminated powerfully between patients at high risk and lower risk of coronary death during 10-year follow-up. Clinical utility was reflected in the prognostic value it added to the updated Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  13. 25 Years of Model-Driven Web Engineering: What we achieved, What is missing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rossi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Model-Driven Web Engineering (MDWE approaches aim to improve the Web applications development process by focusing on modeling instead of coding, and deriving the running application by transformations from conceptual models to code. The emergence of the Interaction Flow Modeling Language (IFML has been an important milestone in the evolution of Web modeling languages, indicating not only the maturity of the field but also a final convergence of languages. In this paper we explain the evolution of modeling and design approaches since the early years (in the 90’s detailing the forces which drove that evolution and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of some of those approaches. A brief presentation of the IFML is accompanied with a thorough analysis of the most important achievements of the MDWE community as well as the problems and obstacles that hinder the dissemination of model-driven techniques in the Web engineering field.

  14. Relationship Between Vehicle Size and Fatality Risk in Model Year 1985-93 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Fatality rates per million exposure years are computed by make, model and model year, : based on the crash experience of model year 1985-93 passenger cars and light trucks (pickups) vans : and sport utility vehicles) in the United States during calen...

  15. A 1000-year simulation with the IPSL ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Conil

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A 1000-year climate simulation is run with the ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed at the Institute Pierre- Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris. No flux adjustment is used. The drift of the model is analyzed in terms of the seasurface temperature and deep ocean temperature. When the model's own equilibrium is reached, it is found that the Antarctic bottom water production experiences large-amplitude variation, oscillating between strong and weak episodes. This can yield oceanic temperature variation in the Southern Hemisphere and for the global mean.

  16. A Multidimensional Model of School Dropout from an 8-Year Longitudinal Study in a General High School Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, Laurier; Marcotte, Diane; Diallo, Thierno; Potvin, Pierre; Royer, Egide

    2013-01-01

    This study tests an empirical multidimensional model of school dropout, using data collected in the first year of an 8-year longitudinal study, with first year high school students aged 12-13 years. Structural equation modeling analyses show that five personal, family, and school latent factors together contribute to school dropout identified at…

  17. Modeling the Impact of Wilderness Orientation Programs on First-Year Academic Success and Life Purpose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Andrew W.; Kang, Hyoung-Kil

    2015-01-01

    Wilderness orientation programs (WOPs) are becoming a popular method of encouraging college student retention and success. Previous studies have identified outcomes and correlates of participation in these programs, but a cohesive model of impact is lacking. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of WOPs on first-year student success…

  18. A Field Training Model for Creative Arts Therapies: Report from a 3-Year Program Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orkibi, Hod

    2012-01-01

    Clinical field training is an essential component of educating future therapists. This article discusses a creative arts therapies field training model in Israel as designed and modified from 3 years of program evaluation in a changing regulatory context. A clinical seminar structure puts beginning students in the role of participant-observer in…

  19. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12–22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12–22 years

  20. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12-22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12-22 years

  1. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  2. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part II : Appendix E and F

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  3. Analysis of the Impacts of City Year's Whole School Whole Child Model on Partner Schools' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Julie; Anderson, Leslie M.

    2015-01-01

    City Year is a learning organization committed to the rigorous evaluation of its "Whole School Whole Child" model, which trains and deploys teams of AmeriCorps members to low-performing, urban schools to empower more students to reach their full potential. A third-party study by Policy Studies Associates (PSA) examined the impact of…

  4. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 2 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2014-01-01

    "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO) is an NSF-funded, three-year project to support hands-on explorations in "network security" and "cryptography" through Research Experience Vitalizing Science-University Program (REVS-UP) at California State University, Bakersfield. In addition, the…

  5. Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schödelbauerová, Iva; Tremblay, R. L.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 3 (2010), s. 637-650 ISSN 0960-3115 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Lepanthes rubripetala * Matrix models * Orchids * Transition matrix Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.146, year: 2010

  6. Development, Validation and Parametric study of a 3-Year-Old Child Head Finite Element Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihai; Chen, Yue; Li, Haiyan; Ruan, ShiJie

    2015-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury caused by drop and traffic accidents is an important reason for children's death and disability. Recently, the computer finite element (FE) head model has been developed to investigate brain injury mechanism and biomechanical responses. Based on CT data of a healthy 3-year-old child head, the FE head model with detailed anatomical structure was developed. The deep brain structures such as white matter, gray matter, cerebral ventricle, hippocampus, were firstly created in this FE model. The FE model was validated by comparing the simulation results with that of cadaver experiments based on reconstructing the child and adult cadaver experiments. In addition, the effects of skull stiffness on the child head dynamic responses were further investigated. All the simulation results confirmed the good biofidelity of the FE model.

  7. Physical aggression, compromised social support, and 10-year marital outcomes: Testing a relational spillover model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kieran T; Pasch, Lauri A; Lawrence, Erika; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to test a relational spillover model of physical aggression whereby physical aggression affects marital outcomes due to its effects on how spouses ask for and provide support to one another. Newlywed couples (n = 172) reported levels of physical aggression over the past year and engaged in interactions designed to elicit social support; marital adjustment, and stability were assessed periodically over the first 10 years of marriage. Multilevel modeling revealed that negative support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and 10-year marital adjustment levels whereas positive support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and divorce status. These findings emphasize the need to look beyond conflict when explaining how aggression affects relationships and when working with couples with a history of physical aggression who are seeking to improve their relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Using hematogram model to predict future metabolic syndrome in elderly: a 4-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yu-Hsiang; Hsu, Chun-Hsien; Lin, Jiunn-Diann; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun; Wu, Chung-Ze; Chao, Ting-Ting; Pei, Dee; Liang, Yao-Jen; Wang, Kun; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-03-01

    The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is proposed to predict future occurrence of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There are some other "non-traditional" risk factors such as hematogram components that are also related to the same endpoints as MetS. In this four-year longitudinal study, we used hematogram components to build models for predicting future occurrence of MetS in older men and women separately. Subjects above 65 years without MetS and related diseases were enrolled. All subjects were followed up until they developed MetS or until up to four years from the day of entry, whichever was earlier. Among the 4539 study participants, 1327 developed MetS. Models were built for men and women separately and the areas under the receiver operation curves were significant. The Kaplan-Meier plot showed that the models could predict future MetS. Finally, Cox regression analysis showed that the hematogram model was correlated to future MetS with hazard ratios of 1.567 and 1.738 in men and women, respectively. Our hematogram models could significantly predict future MetS in elderly and might be more practical and convenient for daily clinical practice.

  9. A computational growth model for measuring dynamic cortical development in the first year of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jingxin; Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-10-01

    Human cerebral cortex develops extremely fast in the first year of life. Quantitative measurement of cortical development during this early stage plays an important role in revealing the relationship between cortical structural and high-level functional development. This paper presents a computational growth model to simulate the dynamic development of the cerebral cortex from birth to 1 year old by modeling the cerebral cortex as a deformable elastoplasticity surface driven via a growth model. To achieve a high accuracy, a guidance model is also incorporated to estimate the growth parameters and cortical shapes at later developmental stages. The proposed growth model has been applied to 10 healthy subjects with longitudinal brain MR images acquired at every 3 months from birth to 1 year old. The experimental results show that our proposed method can capture the dynamic developmental process of the cortex, with the average surface distance error smaller than 0.6 mm compared with the ground truth surfaces, and the results also show that 1) the curvedness and sharpness decrease from 2 weeks to 12 months and 2) the frontal lobe shows rapidly increasing cortical folding during this period, with relatively slower increase of the cortical folding in the occipital and parietal lobes.

  10. Partnerships for success: A collaborative support model to enhance the first year student experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Einfalt

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent discourse about engaging first year students calls for more collaboration in terms of adopting a holistic approach to course delivery and support. This paper discusses a collaborative support model operating at a regional Australian university since 2008. In particular, it describes a collaborative support initiative emerging from this model that is based on providing an informal consultative space where students can drop-in and gain assessment support for research, writing and content. A focus group, online surveys and interviews with co-ordinators were conducted to evaluate the impact of this initiative. Findings suggest that this collaborative support model impacts on the first year student experience by: raising awareness about academic skills and the processes for researching and writing; promoting peer learning opportunities; building confidence and providing suitable support for a diverse range of students.

  11. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

    More than two year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm...... satellites and alongtrack first differences we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from two years...

  12. Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés, J.-C.; Colmenar, J.-M.; Hidalgo, J.-I.; Sánchez-Sánchez, A.; Santonja, F.-J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

    2016-01-01

    Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30 % of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as the model parameters the ones that best fit data returned by the Differential Evolution algorithm. This technique permits to forecast model trends in the next few years using confidence intervals.

  13. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model: eight years of experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kaufmann

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The Swiss Model, a hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, has been used at MeteoSwiss for operational forecasting at the meso-beta scale (mesh-size 14 km from 1994 until 2001. The quality of the quantitative precipitation forecasts is evaluated for the eight years of operation. The seasonal precipitation over Switzerland and its dependence on altitude is examined for both model forecasts and observations using the Swiss rain gauge network sampling daily precipitation at over 400 stations for verification. The mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is verified against the automatic surface observation network on the basis of hourly recordings. In winter, there is no diurnal forcing of precipitation and the modelled precipitation agrees with the observed values. In summer, the convection in the model starts too early, overestimates the amount of precipitation and is too short-lived. Skill scores calculated for six-hourly precipitation sums show a constant level of performance over the model life cycle. Dry and wet seasons influence the model performance more than the model changes during its operational period. The comprehensive verification of the model precipitation is complemented by the discussion of a number of heavy rain events investigated during the RAPHAEL project. The sensitivities to a number of model components are illustrated, namely the driving boundary fields, the internal partitioning of parameterised and grid-scale precipitation, the advection scheme and the vertical resolution. While a small impact of the advection scheme had to be expected, the increasing overprediction of rain with increasing vertical resolution in the RAPHAEL case studies was larger than previously thought. The frequent update of the boundary conditions enhances the positioning of the rain in the model. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecast, model verification

  14. Predictability of 2-year La Niña events in a coupled general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiNezio, Pedro N.; Deser, Clara; Okumura, Yuko; Karspeck, Alicia

    2017-12-01

    The predictability of the duration of La Niña is assessed using the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), a coupled climate model capable of simulating key features of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, including the multi-year duration of La Niña. Statistical analysis of a 1800 year long control simulation indicates that a strong thermocline discharge or a strong El Niño can lead to La Niña conditions that last 2 years (henceforth termed 2-year LN). This relationship suggest that 2-year LN maybe predictable 18 to 24 months in advance. Perfect model forecasts performed with CESM1 are used to further explore the link between 2-year LN and the "Discharge" and "Peak El Niño" predictors. Ensemble forecasts are initialized on January and July coinciding with ocean states characterized by peak El Niño amplitudes and peak thermocline discharge respectively. Three cases with different magnitudes of these predictors are considered resulting in a total of six ensembles. Each "Peak El Niño" and "Discharge" ensemble forecast consists of 30 or 20 members respectively, generated by adding a infinitesimally small perturbation to the atmospheric initial conditions unique to each member. The forecasts show that the predictability of 2-year LN, measured by the potential prediction utility (PPU) of the Niño-3.4 SST index during the second year, is related to the magnitude of the initial conditions. Forecasts initialized with strong thermocline discharge or strong peak El Niño amplitude show higher PPU than those with initial conditions of weaker magnitude. Forecasts initialized from states characterized by weaker predictors are less predictable, mainly because the ensemble-mean signal is smaller, and therefore PPU is reduced due to the influence of forecast spread. The error growth of the forecasts, measured by the spread of the Niño-3.4 SST index, is independent of the initial conditions and appears to be driven by wind variability over the

  15. Prediction model for 3-year rupture risk of unruptured cerebral aneurysms in Japanese patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tominari, Shinjiro; Morita, Akio; Ishibashi, Toshihiro; Yamazaki, Tomosato; Takao, Hiroyuki; Murayama, Yuichi; Sonobe, Makoto; Yonekura, Masahiro; Saito, Nobuhito; Shiokawa, Yoshiaki; Date, Isao; Tominaga, Teiji; Nozaki, Kazuhiko; Houkin, Kiyohiro; Miyamoto, Susumu; Kirino, Takaaki; Hashi, Kazuo; Nakayama, Takeo

    2015-06-01

    To build a prediction model that estimates the 3-year rupture risk of unruptured saccular cerebral aneurysms. Survival analysis was done using each aneurysm as the unit for analysis. Derivation data were from the Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysm Study (UCAS) in Japan. It consists of patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms enrolled between 2000 and 2004 at neurosurgical departments at tertiary care hospitals in Japan. The model was presented as a scoring system, and aneurysms were classified into 4 risk grades by predicted 3-year rupture risk: I, 9%. The discrimination property and calibration plot of the model were evaluated with external validation data. They were a combination of 3 Japanese cohort studies: UCAS II, the Small Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Verification study, and the study at Jikei University School of Medicine. The derivation data include 6,606 unruptured cerebral aneurysms in 5,651 patients. During the 11,482 aneurysm-year follow-up period, 107 ruptures were observed. The predictors chosen for the scoring system were patient age, sex, and hypertension, along with aneurysm size, location, and the presence of a daughter sac. The 3-year risk of rupture ranged from 15% depending on the individual characteristics of patients and aneurysms. External validation indicated good discrimination and calibration properties. A simple scoring system that only needs easily available patient and aneurysmal information was constructed. This can be used in clinical decision making regarding management of unruptured cerebral aneurysms. © 2015 American Neurological Association.

  16. A participative evaluation model to refine academic support for first year Indigenous higher education students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn Rossingh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluative approach designed to provide a cycle of continuous improvement to retain Indigenous students during their first year of higher education.   The evaluation model operates in conjunction with a student academic enrichment program that is premised on valuing and respecting each student's background and life experience whilst building capability for learning success.  Data collected will be used for continual improvement of a newly developed innovative academic enrichment program that caters to the needs of Indigenous students.  The defining mechanisms of the model for measuring the first year experience are particularly meaningful for the Australian Centre For Indigenous Knowledges and Education as it moves into its inaugural year of operation in 2012. This preeminent time requires a flexible model to receive timely feedback in a reflexive environment where students guide the process as they continue their journey of accumulating knowledge and leave behind their contribution in shaping the landscape for future first year Indigenous students.  

  17. A year 2003 conceptual model for the U.S. telecommunications infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Reinert, Rhonda K.

    2003-12-01

    To model the telecommunications infrastructure and its role and robustness to shocks, we must characterize the business and engineering of telecommunications systems in the year 2003 and beyond. By analogy to environmental systems modeling, we seek to develop a 'conceptual model' for telecommunications. Here, the conceptual model is a list of high-level assumptions consistent with the economic and engineering architectures of telecommunications suppliers and customers, both today and in the near future. We describe the present engineering architectures of the most popular service offerings, and describe the supplier markets in some detail. We also develop a characterization of the customer base for telecommunications services and project its likely response to disruptions in service, base-lining such conjectures against observed behaviors during 9/11.

  18. Two-Year versus One-Year Head Start Program Impact: Addressing Selection Bias by Comparing Regression Modeling with Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, Christine; Wen, Xiaoli; Korfmacher, Jon

    2015-01-01

    This article compares regression modeling and propensity score analysis as different types of statistical techniques used in addressing selection bias when estimating the impact of two-year versus one-year Head Start on children's school readiness. The analyses were based on the national Head Start secondary dataset. After controlling for…

  19. Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Rivera, Michael K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)

    2014-04-01

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  20. Forty years of 9Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined

  1. Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, S. V.; Muldashev, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the

  2. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

    2009-03-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  3. The SIR model of Zika virus disease outbreak in Brazil at year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aik, Lim Eng; Kiang, Lam Chee; Hong, Tan Wei; Abu, Mohd Syafarudy

    2017-05-01

    This research study demonstrates a numerical model intended for comprehension the spread of the year 2015 Zika virus disease utilizing the standard SIR framework. In modeling virulent disease dynamics, it is important to explore whether the illness spread could accomplish a pandemic level or it could be eradicated. Information from the year 2015 Zika virus disease event is utilized and Brazil where the event began is considered in this research study. A three dimensional nonlinear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically utilizing the Euler's method in MS excel. It is appeared from the research study that, with health intercessions of public, the viable regenerative number can be decreased making it feasible for the event to cease to exist. It is additionally indicated numerically that the pandemic can just cease to exist when there are no new infected people in the populace.

  4. Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gras, Laure-Lise; Stockman, Isabelle; Brolin, Karin

    2017-01-01

    Emergency events can influence a child's kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs-MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models-were evaluated and compared with child volunteers' data during emergency events-braking and steering-with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control.

  5. Mercury Studies around the Mediterranean Sea Basin: Ten years of Measurements and Modeling results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sprovieri F.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Only a few years ago the presence of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM was believed to be almost exclusively the result of anthropogenic emissions and that sustained high RGM concentrations in the MBL were not considered likely. During the past ten years, an in-depth investigation was carried out in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL of the Mediterranean Sea to quantify and possibly explain spatial and temporal patterns of Hg-species concentrations. This paper provides an overview of modeling results and atmospheric measurements performed during several cruise campaigns performed aboard the Research Vessel (RV URANIA of the CNR over the Mediterranean sea basin. RGM concentrations have been modelled using a photochemical box model of the MBL and compared to measured data obtained during the research cruises. The comparison results supports the hypothesis that there are daytime mercury oxidation reactions occurring which have not yet been identified. Major findings of key studies carried out during ten years of ship-borne activities have been highlighted.

  6. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Shanthi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131 were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5% patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4% achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context

  7. Modeling the Office of Science ten year facilities plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Supinski, Bronis R de; Gamblin, Todd; Schulz, Martin

    2009-01-01

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  8. Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Paulo Batistella Pasini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

  9. Spherical Cap Harmonic Modelling of 400 Years of Secular Variation in the South-west Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, M.; Alfheid, M.; Ingham, E. M.; Turner, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    Historical magnetic data recorded in ship's logs on voyages of exploration and trade in the south-west Pacific have been used as a basis for constructing a model of secular variation in the region using spherical cap harmonic (SCH) analysis. The spherical cap used is centred on colatitude 115° and longitude 160° and has a radius of 50°, thus covering New Zealand, Australia and parts of Antarctica. Gaps in the observational data have been filled by an iterative procedure started by using IGRF field values to obtain SCH models for 2000, 1950 and 1900 and assuming that the spherical cap coefficients have a linear variation in time over the 400 year time period of the model, as is observed to a first approximation for Gauss coefficients calculated from a global spherical harmonic analysis. The resulting field models have generally smooth spatial and temporal variations in declination, inclination and intensity which show some differences from the variations calculated using the global spherical harmonic model gufm1. The technique clearly shows promise for producing more refined models of secular variation in the south-west Pacific when the historical data are supplemented by archeomagnetic and paleomagnetic data.

  10. Global Multi-Year O3-CO Correlation Patterns from Models and TES Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voulgarakis, A.; Telford, P. J.; Aghedo, A. M.; Braesicke, P.; Faluvegi, G.; Abraham, N. L.; Bowman, K. W.; Pyle, J. A.; Shindell, D. T.

    2011-01-01

    The correlation between measured tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been used extensively in tropospheric chemistry studies to explore the photochemical characteristics of different regions and to evaluate the ability of models to capture these characteristics. Here, we present the first study that uses multi-year, global, vertically resolved, simultaneous and collocated O3 and CO satellite (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) measurements, to determine this correlation in the middle/lower free troposphere for two different seasons, and to evaluate two chemistry-climate models. We find results that are fairly robust across different years, altitudes and timescales considered, which indicates that the correlation maps presented here could be used in future model evaluations. The highest positive correlations (around 0.8) are found in the northern Pacific during summer, which is a common feature in the observations and the G-PUCCINI model. We make quantitative comparisons between the models using a single-figure metric (C), which we define as the correlation coefficient between the modeled and the observed O3-CO correlations for different regions of the globe. On a global scale, the G-PUCCINI model shows a good performance in the summer (C =0.71) and a satisfactory performance in the winter (C = 0.52). It captures midlatitude features very well, especially in the summer, whereas the performance in regions like South America or Central Africa is weaker. The UKCA model (C = 0.46/0.15 for July-August/December-January on a global scale) performs better in certain regions, such as the tropics in winter, and it captures some of the broad characteristics of summer extratropical correlations, but it systematically underestimates the O3-CO correlations over much of the globe. It is noteworthy that the correlations look very different in the two models, even though the ozone distributions are similar. This demonstrates that this technique provides a powerful

  11. Evaluating Engagement Models for a Citizen Science Project: Lessons Learned From Four Years of Nature's Notebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, T. M.; Rosemartin, A.

    2012-12-01

    The success of citizen science programs hinges on their abilities to recruit and maintain active participants. The USA National Phenology Network's plant and animal phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook, has been active since 2009. This program engages thousands of citizen scientists in tracking plant and animal life cycle activity over the course of the year. We embarked on an evaluation of the various observer recruitment and retention tactics that we have employed over the ~4-year life of this program to better inform future outreach efforts specific to Nature's Notebook and for the broader citizen science community. Participants in Nature's Notebook may become engaged via one of three pathways: individuals may join Nature's Notebook directly, they may be invited to join through a USA-NPN partner organization, or they may engage through a group with local, site-based leadership. The level and type of recruitment tactics, training, and retention efforts that are employed varies markedly among these three models. In this evaluation, we compared the efficacy of these three engagement models using several metrics: number of individuals recruited, number of individuals that go on to submit at least one data point, retention rates over time, duration of activity, and quantity of data points submitted. We also qualitatively considered the differences in costs the three models require to support. In terms of recruitment, direct engagement yielded 20-100 times more registrants than other two models. In contrast, rates of participation were highest for site-based leadership (>35%, versus 20-30% for direct engagement; rates for partner organizations were highly variable due to small sample sizes). Individuals participating through partners with site-based leadership showed a much higher rate of retention (41% of participants remained active for two+ years) than those participating directly in Nature's Notebook (27% of participants remained active for two+ years

  12. Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2017-11-01

    The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

  13. Finding the 'lost years' in green turtles: insights from ocean circulation models and genetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, Nathan F; Naro-Maciel, Eugenia

    2013-10-07

    Organismal movement is an essential component of ecological processes and connectivity among ecosystems. However, estimating connectivity and identifying corridors of movement are challenging in oceanic organisms such as young turtles that disperse into the open sea and remain largely unobserved during a period known as 'the lost years'. Using predictions of transport within an ocean circulation model and data from published genetic analysis, we present to our knowledge, the first basin-scale hypothesis of distribution and connectivity among major rookeries and foraging grounds (FGs) of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) during their 'lost years'. Simulations indicate that transatlantic dispersal is likely to be common and that recurrent connectivity between the southwestern Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic is possible. The predicted distribution of pelagic juvenile turtles suggests that many 'lost years hotspots' are presently unstudied and located outside protected areas. These models, therefore, provide new information on possible dispersal pathways that link nesting beaches with FGs. These pathways may be of exceptional conservation concern owing to their importance for sea turtles during a critical developmental period.

  14. Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Susan; Kidokoro, Toru; Karamchandani, Prakash; Shah, Tejas; Jung, Jaegun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.

  15. A Validated Normative Model for Human Uterine Volume from Birth to Age 40 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Thomas W; Ginbey, Eleanor; Chowdhury, Moti M; Bath, Louise E; Anderson, Richard A; Wallace, W Hamish B

    2016-01-01

    Transabdominal pelvic ultrasound and/or pelvic Magnetic Resonance Imaging are safe, accurate and non-invasive means of determining the size and configuration of the internal female genitalia. The assessment of uterine size and volume is helpful in the assessment of many conditions including disorders of sex development, precocious or delayed puberty, infertility and menstrual disorders. Using our own data from the assessment of MRI scans in healthy young females and data extracted from four studies that assessed uterine volume using transabdominal ultrasound in healthy females we have derived and validated a normative model of uterine volume from birth to age 40 years. This shows that uterine volume increases across childhood, with a faster increase in adolescence reflecting the influence of puberty, followed by a slow but progressive rise during adult life. The model suggests that around 84% of the variation in uterine volumes in the healthy population up to age 40 is due to age alone. The derivation of a validated normative model for uterine volume from birth to age 40 years has important clinical applications by providing age-related reference values for uterine volume.

  16. On the Cutting Edge Professional Development Program - An effective model built from years of experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckner, M. Z.; Macdonald, H.; Beane, R. J.; Manduca, C. A.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Mogk, D. W.; Tewksbury, B. J.; Wiese, K.; Wysession, M. E.; Iverson, E. A. R.; Fox, S.

    2015-12-01

    The On the Cutting Edge (CE) program offers a successful model for designing and convening professional development events. Information about the model is now available on the CE website. The program model has evolved from more than 12 years of experience, building with input from strong leaders and participants. CE offers face-to-face, virtual, and hybrid events, and features a rich website that supports these professional development events as well as a growing community with a shared interest in effective geoscience teaching. Data from national surveys, participant feedback, and self-report data indicate the program's success in improving undergraduate geoscience education. Successes are also demonstrated in classroom observations using RTOP, indicating a significant difference in teaching style among participants and non-participants. A suite of web pages, with a planning timeline, provides guidance to those interested in designing and convening face-to-face or virtual events based on the CE model. The pages suggest ways to develop robust event goals and evaluation tools, how to choose strong leaders and recruit diverse participants, advice for designing effective event programs that utilize participant expertise, websites, and web tools, and suggestions for effectively disseminating event results and producing useful products. The CE model has been successfully transferred to projects that vary in scale and discipline. Best practices from the CE model include (1) thinking of the workshop as shared enterprise among conveners and participants; (2) incorporating conveners and participants who bring diverse viewpoints and approaches; (3) promoting structured discussions that utilize participants' expertise; (4) emphasizing practical strategies to effect change; and (5) using the website as a platform to prepare for the workshop, share ideas, and problem-solve challenges. Learn more about how to utilize this model for your project at:serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/workshops/convene

  17. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  18. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. PMID:22129456

  19. Thirty Years with EoS/GE Models - What Have We Learned?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.; Coutsikos, Philippos

    2012-01-01

    Thirty years of research and the use of EoS/GE mixing rules in cubic equations of state are reviewed. The most popular approaches are presented both from the derivation and application points of view and they are compared to each other. It is shown that all methods have significant capabilities...... but also limitations which are discussed. A useful approach is presented for analyzing the models by looking at the activity coefficient expression derived from the equations of state using various mixing rules. The size-asymmetric systems are investigated in detail, and an explanation is provided on how...

  20. Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson at LEP in the year 2000

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, P.; Adye, T.; Adzic, P.; Albrecht, Z.; Alderweireld, T.; Alekseev, G.D.; Alemany, R.; Allmendinger, T.; Allport, P.P.; Almehed, S.; Amaldi, U.; Amapane, N.; Amato, S.; Anashkin, E.; Anassontzis, E.G.; Andersson, P.; Andreazza, A.; Andringa, S.; Anjos, N.; Antilogus, P.; Apel, W.D.; Arnoud, Y.; Asman, B.; Augustin, J.E.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Ballestrero, A.; Bambade, P.; Barao, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Barbier, R.; Bardin, Dmitri Yu.; Barker, G.J.; Baroncelli, A.; Battaglia, M.; Baubillier, M.; Becks, K.H.; Begalli, M.; Behrmann, A.; Belokopytov, Yu.; Belous, K.; Benekos, N.C.; Benvenuti, A.C.; Berat, C.; Berggren, M.; Berntzon, L.; Bertrand, D.; Besancon, M.; Besson, N.; Bilenky, Mikhail S.; Bloch, D.; Blom, H.M.; Bol, L.; Bonesini, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Booth, P.S.L.; Borisov, G.; Bosio, C.; Botner, O.; Boudinov, E.; Bouquet, B.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Boyko, I.; Bozovic, I.; Bozzo, M.; Bracko, M.; Branchini, P.; Brenner, R.A.; Bruckman, P.; Brunet, J.M.; Bugge, L.; Buschmann, P.; Caccia, M.; Calvi, M.; Camporesi, T.; Canale, V.; Carena, F.; Carroll, L.; Caso, C.; Castillo Gimenez, M.V.; Cattai, A.; Cavallo, F.R.; Chapkin, M.; Charpentier, P.; Checchia, P.; Chelkov, G.A.; Chierici, R.; Chliapnikov, P.; Chochula, P.; Chorowicz, V.; Chudoba, J.; Cieslik, K.; Collins, P.; Contri, R.; Cortina, E.; Cosme, G.; Cossutti, F.; Costa, M.; Crawley, H.B.; Crennell, D.; Croix, J.; Crosetti, G.; Cuevas Maestro, J.; Czellar, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Dalmau, J.; Davenport, M.; Da Silva, W.; Della Ricca, G.; Delpierre, P.; Demaria, N.; De Angelis, A.; De Boer, W.; De Clercq, C.; De Lotto, B.; De Min, A.; De Paula, L.; Dijkstra, H.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Doroba, K.; Dracos, M.; Drees, J.; Dris, M.; Eigen, G.; Ekelof, T.; Ellert, M.; Elsing, M.; Engel, J.P.; Espirito Santo, M.C.; Fanourakis, G.; Fassouliotis, D.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrer-Ribas, E.; Ferro, F.; Firestone, A.; Flagmeyer, U.; Foeth, H.; Fokitis, E.; Franek, B.; Frodesen, A.G.; Fruhwirth, R.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Fuster, J.; Gamba, D.; Gamblin, S.; Gandelman, M.; Garcia, C.; Gaspar, C.; Gaspar, M.; Gasparini, U.; Gavillet, P.; Gazis, Evangelos; Gele, D.; Geralis, T.; Ghodbane, N.; Gil Botella, Ines; Glege, F.; Gokieli, R.; Golob, B.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncalves, P.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Gopal, G.; Gorn, L.; Gouz, Yu.; Gracco, V.; Grahl, J.; Graziani, E.; Grosdidier, G.; Grzelak, K.; Guy, J.; Haag, C.; Hahn, F.; Hahn, S.; Haider, S.; Hallgren, A.; Hamacher, K.; Hansen, J.; Harris, F.J.; Haug, S.; Hauler, F.; Hedberg, V.; Heising, S.; Hernandez, J.J.; Herquet, P.; Herr, H.; Hertz, O.; Higon, E.; Holmgren, S.O.; Holt, P.J.; Hoorelbeke, S.; Houlden, M.; Hrubec, J.; Hughes, G.J.; Hultqvist, K.; Jackson, John Neil; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, P.; Jarlskog, C.; Jarlskog, G.; Jarry, P.; Jean-Marie, B.; Jeans, D.; Johansson, Erik Karl; Jonsson, P.; Joram, C.; Juillot, P.; Jungermann, L.; Kapusta, Frederic; Karafasoulis, K.; Katsanevas, S.; Katsoufis, E.C.; Keranen, R.; Kernel, G.; Kersevan, B.P.; Khomenko, B.A.; Khovanski, N.N.; Kiiskinen, A.; King, B.; Kinvig, A.; Kjaer, N.J.; Klapp, O.; Kluit, P.; Kokkinias, P.; Kostioukhine, V.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krammer, M.; Kriznic, E.; Krumstein, Z.; Kubinec, P.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kurowska, J.; Lamsa, J.W.; Laugier, J.P.; Leder, G.; Ledroit, Fabienne; Leinonen, L.; Leisos, A.; Leitner, R.; Lenzen, G.; Lepeltier, V.; Lesiak, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Libby, J.; Liebig, W.; Liko, D.; Lipniacka, A.; Lippi, I.; Loken, J.G.; Lopes, J.H.; Lopez, J.M.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Loukas, D.; Lutz, P.; Lyons, L.; MacNaughton, J.; Mahon, J.R.; Maio, A.; Malek, A.; Maltezos, S.; Malychev, V.; Mandl, F.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Marechal, B.; Margoni, M.; Marin, J.C.; Mariotti, C.; Markou, A.; Martinez-Rivero, C.; Marti i Garcia, S.; Masik, J.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Matorras, F.; Matteuzzi, C.; Matthiae, G.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; McCubbin, M.; McKay, R.; McNulty, R.; Merle, E.; Meroni, C.; Meyer, W.T.; Miagkov, A.; Migliore, E.; Mirabito, L.; Mitaroff, W.A.; Mjoernmark, U.; Moa, T.; Moch, M.; Monig, Klaus; Monge, M.R.; Montenegro, J.; Moraes, D.; Morettini, P.; Morton, G.; Muller, U.; Muenich, K.; Mulders, M.; Mundim, L.M.; Murray, W.J.; Muryn, B.; Myatt, G.; Myklebust, T.; Nassiakou, M.; Navarria, F.L.; Nawrocki, K.; Negri, P.; Nemecek, S.; Neufeld, N.; Nicolaidou, R.; Niezurawski, P.; Nikolenko, M.; Nomokonov, V.; Nygren, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Olshevski, A.G.; Onofre, A.; Orava, R.; Osterberg, K.; Ouraou, A.; Oyanguren, A.; Paganoni, M.; Paiano, S.; Pain, R.; Paiva, R.; Palacios, J.; Palka, H.; Papadopoulou, T.D.; Pape, L.; Parkes, C.; Parodi, F.; Parzefall, U.; Passeri, A.; Passon, O.; Peralta, L.; Perepelitsa, V.; Pernicka, M.; Perrotta, A.; Petridou, C.; Petrolini, A.; Phillips, H.T.; Pierre, F.; Pimenta, M.; Piotto, E.; Podobnik, T.; Poireau, V.; Pol, M.E.; Polok, G.; Poropat, P.; Pozdniakov, V.; Privitera, P.; Pukhaeva, N.; Pullia, A.; Radojicic, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Rahmani, H.; Read, Alexander L.; Rebecchi, P.; Redaelli, Nicola Giuseppe; Regler, M.; Rehn, J.; Reid, D.; Reinhardt, R.; Renton, P.B.; Resvanis, L.K.; Richard, F.; Ridky, J.; Rinaudo, G.; Ripp-Baudot, Isabelle; Romero, A.; Ronchese, P.; Rosenberg, E.I.; Rosinsky, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rovelli, T.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Ruiz, A.; Saarikko, H.; Sacquin, Y.; Sadovsky, A.; Sajot, G.; Salmi, L.; Salt, J.; Sampsonidis, D.; Sannino, M.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schwanda, C.; Schwemling, P.; Schwering, B.; Schwickerath, U.; Scuri, Fabrizio; Sedykh, Y.; Segar, A.M.; Sekulin, R.; Sette, G.; Shellard, R.C.; Siebel, M.; Simard, L.; Simonetto, F.; Sisakian, A.N.; Smadja, G.; Smirnov, N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, G.R.; Sokolov, A.; Sopczak, A.; Sosnowski, R.; Spassov, T.; Spiriti, E.; Squarcia, S.; Stanescu, C.; Stanitzki, M.; Stevenson, K.; Stocchi, A.; Strauss, J.; Strub, R.; Stugu, B.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Tabarelli, T.; Taffard, A.; Chikilev, O.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Terranova, F.; Timmermans, Jan; Tinti, N.; Tkatchev, L.G.; Tobin, M.; Todorova, S.; Tome, B.; Tonazzo, A.; Tortora, L.; Tortosa, P.; Treille, D.; Tristram, G.; Trochimczuk, M.; Troncon, C.; Turluer, M.L.; Tyapkin, I.A.; Tyapkin, P.; Tzamarias, S.; Ullaland, O.; Uvarov, V.; Valenti, G.; Vallazza, E.; Vander Velde, C.; Van Dam, Piet; Van den Boeck, W.; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Eldik, J.; Van Lysebetten, A.; van Remortel, N.; Van Vulpen, I.; Vegni, G.; Ventura, L.; Venus, W.; Verbeure, F.; Verdier, P.; Verlato, M.; Vertogradov, L.S.; Verzi, V.; Vilanova, D.; Vitale, L.; Vlasov, E.; Vodopianov, A.S.; Voulgaris, G.; Vrba, V.; Wahlen, H.; Washbrook, A.J.; Weiser, C.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, J.H.; Wilkinson, G.R.; Winter, M.; Witek, M.; Wolf, G.; Yi, J.; Yushchenko, O.; Zalewska, A.; Zalewski, P.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zevgolatakos, E.; Zimine, N.I.; Zintchenko, A.; Zoller, P.; Zumerle, G.; Zupan, M.

    2001-01-01

    Searches for the Standard Model Higgs boson have been performed in the data collected by the DELPHI experiment at LEP in the year 2000 at centre-of-mass energies between 200 and 209~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}} $} corresponding to a total integrated \\mbox{luminosity} of 224~\\mbox{pb$^{-1}$}. No evidence for a Higgs signal is observed in the kinematically accessible mass range, and a 95\\% CL lower mass limit of 114.3~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}}/c ^2 $} is set, to be compared with an expected median limit of 113.5~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}}/c^2 $} for these data.

  1. Estrogen receptor testing and 10-year mortality from breast cancer: A model for determining testing strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Naugler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy in the treatment of estrogen receptor (ER expressing breast carcinomas represents a major advance in personalized cancer treatment. Because there is no benefit (and indeed there is increased morbidity and mortality associated with the use of tamoxifen therapy in ER-negative breast cancer, its use is restricted to women with ER expressing cancers. However, correctly classifying cancers as ER positive or negative has been challenging given the high reported false negative test rates for ER expression in surgical specimens. In this paper I model practice recommendations using published information from clinical trials to address the question of whether there is a false negative test rate above which it is more efficacious to forgo ER testing and instead treat all patients with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. Methods: I used data from randomized clinical trials to model two different hypothetical treatment strategies: (1 the current strategy of treating only ER positive women with tamoxifen and (2 an alternative strategy where all women are treated with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. The variables used in the model are literature-derived survival rates of the different combinations of ER positivity and treatment with tamoxifen, varying true ER positivity rates and varying false negative ER testing rates. The outcome variable was hypothetical 10-year survival. Results: The model predicted that there will be a range of true ER rates and false negative test rates above which it would be more efficacious to treat all women with breast cancer with tamoxifen and forgo ER testing. This situation occurred with high true positive ER rates and false negative ER test rates in the range of 20-30%. Conclusions: It is hoped that this model will provide an example of the potential importance of diagnostic error on clinical outcomes and furthermore will give an example of how the effect of that

  2. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Hamre, Børge

    2017-09-01

    Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400-900 nm) were found to be on average 0.15-0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39-0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice). This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL) increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  3. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Taskjelle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400–900 nm were found to be on average 0.15–0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39–0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice. This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  4. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigg, David W.; Steuhm, Devin A.

    2011-01-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V and V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V and V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V and V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose

  5. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore

  6. Neuronal cell death, nerve growth factor and neurotrophic models: 50 years on.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennet, M R; Gibson, W G; Lemon, G

    2002-01-10

    Viktor Hamburger has just died at the age of 100. It is 50 years since he and Rita Levi-Montalcini laid the foundations for the study of naturally occurring cell death and of neurotrophic factors in the nervous system. In a period of less than 10 years, from 1949 to 1958, Hamburger and Levi-Montalcini made the following seminal discoveries: that neuron cell death occurs in dorsal root ganglia, sympathetic ganglia and the cervical column of motoneurons; that the predictions arising from this observation, namely that survival is dependent on the supply of a trophic factor, could be substantiated by studying the effects of a sarcoma on the proliferation of ganglionic processes both in vivo and in vitro; and that the proliferation of these processes could be used as an assay system to isolate the factor. This work provides a short review mostly of the early history of this subject in the context of the Hamburger/Levi-Montalcini paradigm. This acts as an introduction to a consideration of models that have been proposed to account for how the different sources of growth factors provide for the survival of neurons during development. It is suggested that what has been called the 'social-control' model provides the most parsimonious quantitative description of the contribution of trophic factors to neuronal survival, a concept for which we are in debt to Viktor Hamburger and Rita Levi-Montalcini.

  7. Modelling analysis and prediction of women javelin throw results in the years I946 — 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Grycmann

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goals of our study of the women's javelin throw were twofold; first, to analyse the dynamics of female javelin throw results variability as a function of time (time period 1946-2014, second, to create a predictive model of the results during the upcoming 4 years. The study material consisted of databases covering the female track and field events obtained from the International Association of Athletics Federations. Prior to predicting the magnitude of results change dynamics in the time to follow, the adjustment of trend function to empirical data was tested using the coefficients of convergence. Phase ll of the investigation consisted of the construction of predictive models. The greatest decreases in result indexes were noted in 2000 (9.4%, 2005-2006 (8.7% and Z009 (7.4%. The trend increase was only noted in the years 2006-2008. In general, until 1998 the mean result improved by 54.6% (100% - results of 1946 whereas from 1999 through 2011 the result only increased by 1.3%. Based on data and results variability analysis it might be presumed that, in the nearest future (2015-2018, results variability will increase by approximately 9.7%. Percent improvement of javelin throw distance calculated on the basis of the 1999 raw input data is 1.4% (end of 2014.

  8. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  9. 40 CFR Appendix I to Part 600 - Highway Fuel Economy Driving Schedule (Applicable to 1978 and Later Model Year Automobiles)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Highway Fuel Economy Driving Schedule (Applicable to 1978 and Later Model Year Automobiles) I Appendix I to Part 600 Protection of Environment... to 1978 and Later Model Year Automobiles) [ speed (mph) vs time (sec) ] SEC MPH SEC MPH SEC MPH SEC...

  10. A 40-year accumulation dataset for Adelie Land, Antarctica and its application for model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agosta, Cecile; Favier, Vincent [UJF-Grenoble 1 / CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Genthon, Christophe; Gallee, Hubert; Krinner, Gerhard [CNRS / UJF-Grenoble 1, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Lenaerts, Jan T.M.; Broeke, Michiel R. van den [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362 mm water equivalent a{sup -1}. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40 years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27-125 km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation. (orig.)

  11. Improved climate model evaluation using a new, 750-year Antarctic-wide snow accumulation product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, B.; Thomas, E. R.

    2017-12-01

    Snow that accumulates over the cold, dry grounded ice of Antarctica is an important component of its mass balance, mitigating the ice sheet's contribution to sea level. Secular trends in accumulation not only result trends in the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also directly and indirectly impact surface height changes. Long-term and spatiotemporally complete records of snow accumulation are needed to understand part and present Antarctic-wide mass balance, to convert from altimetry derived volume change to mass change, and to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed climate change. We need measurements in both time and space, yet they typically sample one dimension at the expense of the other. Here, we develop a spatially complete, annually resolved snow accumulation product for the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the past 750 years by combining a newly compiled database of ice core accumulation records with climate model output. We mainly focus on climate model evaluation. Because the product spans several centuries, we can evaluate model ability in representing the preindustrial as well as present day accumulation change. Significant long-term trends in snow accumulation are found over the Ross and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and several sectors in East Antarctica. These results suggest that change is more complex over the Antarctic Ice Sheet than a simple uniform change (i.e., more snowfall in a warming world), which highlights the importance of atmospheric circulation as a major driver of change. By evaluating several climate models' ability to reproduce the observed trends, we can deduce whether their projections are reasonable or potentially biased where the latter would result in a misrepresentation of the Antarctic contribution to sea level.

  12. Transition in, Transition out: a sustainable model to engage first year students in learning. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chester

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Peer mentoring, presented as an inclusive teaching approach, embedded in the curriculum, has been successfully implemented to support first year student learning. Developing sustainable and scalable models for large first year cohorts, however, provides a challenge. The Transition in, Transition out model is a sustainable peer mentoring model supporting the transition of both first and final year students. The model has been implemented in two Australian psychology programs, one face-to-face and one delivered online. The focus in this Practice Report will be on the outcome data for on-campus first year student at one university. Participants were 231 first year students (166 females and 65 males. Results suggest positive changes in academic performance and learning approaches as well as positive endorsement of the model.

  13. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  14. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  15. Solar irradiance variability: a six-year comparison between SORCE observations and the SATIRE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S.; Harder, J. W.

    2011-06-01

    Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model and compare modeled total solar irradiance (TSI) with TSI measurements over the period 25 February 2003 to 1 November 2009. Spectral solar irradiance over 200-1630 nm is compared with the SIM instrument on SORCE over the period 21 April 2004 to 1 November 2009. We discuss the overall change in flux and the rotational and long-term trends during this period of decline from moderate activity to the recent solar minimum in ~10 nm bands and for three spectral regions of significant interest: the UV integrated over 200-300 nm, the visible over 400-691 nm and the IR between 972-1630 nm. Results: The model captures 97% of the observed TSI variation. This is on the order at which TSI detectors agree with each other during the period considered. In the spectral comparison, rotational variability is well reproduced, especially between 400 and 1200 nm. The magnitude of change in the long-term trends is many times larger in SIM at almost all wavelengths while trends in SIM oppose SATIRE in the visible between 500 and 700 nm and again between 1000 and 1200 nm. We discuss the remaining issues with both SIM data and the identified limits of the model, particularly with the way facular contributions are dealt with, the limit of flux identification in MDI magnetograms during solar minimum and the model atmospheres in the IR employed by SATIRE. However, it is unlikely that improvements in these areas will significantly enhance the agreement in the long-term trends. This disagreement implies that some mechanism other than surface magnetism is causing SSI variations, in particular between 2004 and 2006, if the SIM data are correct. Since SATIRE was able to reproduce UV irradiance between 1991 and 2002 from UARS, either the solar mechanism for SSI

  16. Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not discriminate well. Year 1 and year 2 models showed fair to good predictive validity for PTS. Cranial surgery, although medically necessary, requires ongoing research regarding potential benefits of increased monitoring for signs of epileptogenesis, PTS prophylaxis, and/or rehabilitation/social support. Future studies should

  17. Thirty years of progress in applications and modeling of ocean ambient noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siderius, Martin; Buckingham, Michael J.

    2012-11-01

    Ambient noise in the ocean is a stochastic process, which traditionally was considered to be a nuisance, since it reduced the detectability of sonar signals of interest. However, over the last thirty years, it has come to be recognized that the ambient noise itself contains useful information about the ocean and ocean processes. To extract the information, various inversion procedures have been developed, based upon which a number of practical applications of the ambient noise have evolved. Since naturally generated ambient noise is always present in the ocean, it has the advantage of being non-invasive and non-damaging to marine life, including marine mammals. In this article, a summary of the commonly encountered ambient noise models is offered, along with the associated inversion procedures, and some of the more recent applications of the ambient noise are highlighted.

  18. The 2-MEV model: Constancy of adolescent environmental values within an 8-year time frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, F. X.; Johnson, B.; Buxner, S.; Felix, L.

    2015-08-01

    The 2-MEV model is a widely used tool to monitor children's environmental perception by scoring individual values. Although the scale's validity has been confirmed repeatedly and independently as well as the scale is in usage within more than two dozen language units all over the world, longitudinal properties still need clarification. The purpose of the present study therefore was to validate the 2-MEV scale based on a large data basis of 10,676 children collected over an eight-year period. Cohorts of three different US states contributed to the sample by responding to a paper-and-pencil questionnaire within their pre-test initiatives in the context of field center programs. Since we used only the pre-program 2-MEV scale results (which is before participation in education programs), the data were clearly unspoiled by any follow-up interventions. The purpose of analysis was fourfold: First, to test and confirm the hypothesized factorized structure for the large data set and for the subsample of each of the three states. Second, to analyze the scoring pattern across the eight years' time range for both preservation and utilitarian preferences. Third, to investigate any age effects in the extracted factors. Finally, to extract suitable recommendations for educational implementation efforts.

  19. The First 24 Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary, 20-22 September 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, László

    2013-11-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the fifth workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on the banks of the Danube in the Budapest suburbs in the autumn of 2012. Over fifty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community [1], producing an average of over 90 papers and 1200 citations per year over the last five years. It is particularly suitable for the study of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, as well as the structural analysis of disordered crystalline systems. The principal experimental data that are modelled are obtained from total x-ray or neutron scattering experiments, using the reciprocal space structure factor and/or the real space pair distribution function (PDF). Additional data might be included from extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS), Bragg peak intensities or indeed any measured data that can be calculated from a three-dimensional atomistic model. It is this use of total scattering (diffuse and Bragg), rather than just the Bragg peak intensities more commonly used for crystalline structure analysis, which enables RMC modelling to probe the often important deviations from the average crystal structure, to probe the structures of poorly crystalline or nanocrystalline materials, and the local structures of non-crystalline materials where only diffuse scattering is observed. This flexibility across various condensed matter structure-types has made the RMC method very attractive in a wide range of disciplines, as borne out in the contents of this special issue. It is however important to point out that since

  20. A tale of two models: Changes in psychological need satisfaction and physical activity over 3 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnell, Katie E; Bélanger, Mathieu; Brunet, Jennifer

    2016-02-01

    (a) Examine longitudinal measurement invariance of scores from psychological need satisfaction (PNS) scales, and (b) examine if changes in PNS were associated with change in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Adolescents (N = 842, Mage = 10.8, SD = .6) enrolled in the Monitoring Activities of Teenagers to Comprehend their Habits (MATCH) study completed measures of PNS and MVPA every 4 months over a 3-year period (2011-14) for a total of 9 times. PNS scores demonstrated strong longitudinal measurement invariance (i.e., invariant factor loadings and intercepts). Latent growth curve modeling indicated that a factor representing perceptions of all 3 PNS variables was positively associated with MVPA at Time 1 (β = .562, p change over time. Further, 2 equally well fitting models were found suggesting that change in PNS can be both an antecedent and an outcome of MVPA. As such, both PNS and MVPA could be targeted in interventions aimed at increasing need satisfaction or MVPA. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  2. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  3. 40 years of Bio-Psycho-Social model: what’s new?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kholmogorova A.B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bio-Psycho-Social Model, proposed by George Engel in 1977, was recognized as a turning point in the praxis of medical diagnosis and treatments. Bio-Psycho-Social Model should be seen in a historical context as bucking against the trend of biological reductionism. Social Neuroscience has been formed ten years. Social neuroscience aims to investigate the biological systems that underlie people’s thoughts, feelings and actions in light of the social context in which they operate. Social neuroscience has captured the interest of anthropologists, psychiatrists, psychologists, and experts in other disciplines, as well as the general public who more and more draw upon the insights and methods of social neuroscience to explain, predict and change social behavior. An analysis of the current situation in neurosciences shows that new methods of instrumental brain research do not exclude biological reductionism. The authors qualify the situation in modern studies of social neuroscience as a methodological crisis associated with the prevalence of reductionist approaches that ignore the uniqueness of the human psyche. He substantiates the heuristic provisions of the cultural and historical development of Vygotsky’s psyche theory to overcome any contradictions

  4. Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dany Habka

    Full Text Available During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1 the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2 the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that's constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new

  6. The Influence of Different Models on 15-years-old Students' Understanding of the Solid State of Matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devetak, Iztok; Hajzeri, Metka; Glažar, Saša Aleksij; Vogrinc, Janez

    2010-12-01

    Different models are an indispensable part of teaching and learning chemistry for students to develop adequate mental models of solid states of matter. The aim of this study was to establish the importance of using physical models (teachers' demonstrations and students' modelling) and virtual models of solid states in the educational process for students' to acquire a better understanding of the crystal structures of substances. First year grammar school students (average age 15.4 years) participated in the study. All students were divided into three groups, depending on what sort of activity involving models was used in the chemistry teaching and learning process. The solid state of matter was taught in the first group by students' constructing physical models. In the second group virtual models were used, while the third group was taught by teachers' demonstration of physical models. Students' understanding of the solid state structures was assessed with a knowledge test after the educational strategy, whereas the knowledge retention was evaluated one month following the applications of the teaching strategies with the delayed test. The students who modelled physical models scored better on the test than did the students who used virtual models and also those who were taught the solid state of matter by the teachers' demonstration of physical models. Those students who used virtual models or modelling during chemistry learning achieved statistically the same results on the delayed test, whereas the students who were exposed to the teachers' model demonstration achieved the lowest test score. It can be concluded that students who are engaged in active learning strategies that include modelling or computer interaction using virtual models develop more adequate mental models of solid state substance structures.

  7. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  8. [Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Fei; Dai, Xin-hua; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Kui; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2016-02-01

    To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10 - 30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian's classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H (P Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

  9. Two-Year Community: A 3+8 Model of Undergraduate Research for Community College STEM Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett-Robinson, Pamela M.; Villa, Brandi C.; Mooring, Suazette Reid

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the implementation of an innovative undergraduate research model for students attending a two-year institution. It gives students an opportunity to engage in undergraduate research at nearby four-year institutions, which provides a foundation that allows them to successfully make the transition to STEM programs at the…

  10. [25 years of organized ambulatory heart sport in Luxembourg. The development of a sustained rehabilitation model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delagardelle, Charles; Feiereisen, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    underlying atherosclerotic processes, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality". The responsible ESC cardiologists agree with the international community that fighting CVD risk factors is at least as important as the whole arsenal of modern heart surgery and interventional cardiology. The core activity of ambulatory heart sport groups remains physical activity, and nowadays 6 different activities can be offered (one activity each day of the week): exercise lesson, swimming, walking, cycling, Nordic Walking and water gymnastics On the other hand comprehensive prevention programs, especially concerning CVD risk factors are also endorsed by the ambulatory heart sport groups of Luxembourg via regular meetings, conferences, brochures and symposia. One advantage of the ambulatory heart sport movement in Luxembourg, in contrast to the German model, is the direct financial allowance of the health ministry, which permits a lifelong activity to all the active members. Another advantage is that all the regional groups are directed by clinical cardiologists knowing the patients very closely. One weak point is that only about 5-10% of all potential candidates adhere to the ambulatory heart sport groups but nearly 50% of the active members are practicing for more than 5 years. These regularly active patients are a positive selection of well committed cardiac patients who, most of the time, control CVD risk factors with scrutiny. The ESC has recommended creating so called "Heart Houses" where all the aspects of comprehensive prevention and rehabilitation can be offered. Their main concern is to develop a sustained strategy which is desperately missing for the moment. A lot of the active members of the heart sport groups of Luxembourg achieve such a sustained activity and, therefore, these heart sport groups can be considered as very cost effective models of sustained rehabilitation. After a 25 years activity the ambulatory heart sport movement of Luxemburg has reached the outstanding goal

  11. An evaluation of the hardwood regeneration model (REGEN) 16 years post-harvest of a regenerated stand in East Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne K. Clatterbuck

    2015-01-01

    The REGEN model (developed by USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Bent Creek Experimental Forest) was used prior to harvest to predict species composition of hardwoods at crown closure. This study evaluates whether the predictive ability of the model was effective by using post-harvest information after 16 years. Regeneration data were collected prior to...

  12. Hydrogeochemical transport modeling of 24 years of Rhine water infiltration in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Breukelen, B.M.; Appelo, C.A.J.; Olsthoorn, T.N.

    1998-01-01

    Water quality changes were modelled along a flowpath in a plume of artificially recharged, pretreated Rhine water in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply, after 24 years of infiltration. The hydrogeochemical transport model PHREEQC was extended with dispersion/diffusion and kinetics for selected

  13. A global model of mantle conductivity derived from 5 years of CHAMP, Orsted, and SAC-C magnetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, A.; Olsen, Nils

    2006-01-01

    We present a global 1-D conductivity model which is obtained by analysis of five years ( 2001 - 2005) of simultaneous magnetic data from the three satellites Orsted, CHAMP and SAC-C. After removal of core and crustal fields as predicted by a recent field model we used non-polar scalar and vector...

  14. Use of the FAR Guide to Present a Pedagogical Analogical Model of Gel Electrophoresis in Year 10 Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a qualitative, practice based study describing the use of the Focus-Action-Reflection (FAR) Guide (Harrison & Treagust, 2000) to address the shortcomings of a pedagogical analogical model in Year 10 Science. The aim of this paper is to present my experience of the FAR Guide in relation to an analogical model that gave rise to…

  15. Paper for Publication in IOP: Conference Series Leachate Treatment using three Years Aged Lysimetric Bioreactor Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartono, Djoko M.; Andari Kristanto, Gabriel; Gusniani Sofian, Irma; Fauzan, Ahmad; Mahdiana, Ghanis

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted as a response to address the problem of land availability for Cipayung landfill that no longer able to accommodate waste generation Depok City and to protect water pollution in receiving water body. Law No. 8/2008 explained that local governments and cities are required to create a sanitary landfill as a final waste processing system to replace open dumping that had been done by almost all the final processing of waste in cities in Indonesia. Sanitary landfill is the final waste processing system that works best and is environmentally friendly. The sanitary landfill will generate leachate. Leachate is the result of precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, water infiltration into the waste, and also including the water contained in the waste. The purpose of this study was to determine the utilization of leachate generated by three years aged reactor.This study use a modeling tools as bioreactor landfill tank or so called lysimetric, that made of the polymer material that susceptible to high heat and pressure. This bioreactor landfill tank has a diameter of 0.83 m, with a surface area of 0.54 m2 and a height of 2.02 m, with the examination duration of 115 days. This tank consists of several layer, such as sand layer, solid waste layer, water layer and piping system. These layer has 3 year aged. The In this research, leachate recirculation in bioreactor landfills was conducted with waste layered loading systems with percolation system. This research has been conducted since the beginning of 2016, sampling, field measurement and analysis of leachate and waste quality carried out for approximately 115 days of field measurements.Several parameter were measured such as pH, BOD, COD, nitrate, nitrite and TSS. From the analysis of the leachate quality parameters of pH, BOD, COD, nitrite, TSS, showed a reduction in the concentration of the three reactors. The concentration of parameters measured at the initial stage until the final stage, showed a

  16. Assessing allometric models to predict vegetative growth of mango (Mangifera indica; Anacardiaceae) at the current-year branch scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Frédéric; Lauri, Pierre-Éric

    2012-03-01

    Accurate and reliable predictive models are necessary to estimate nondestructively key variables for plant growth studies such as leaf area and leaf, stem, and total biomass. Predictive models are lacking at the current-year branch scale despite the importance of this scale in plant science. We calibrated allometric models to estimate leaf area and stem and branch (leaves + stem) mass of current-year branches, i.e., branches several months old studied at the end of the vegetative growth season, of four mango cultivars on the basis of their basal cross-sectional area. The effects of year, site, and cultivar were tested. Models were validated with independent data and prediction accuracy was evaluated with the appropriate statistics. Models revealed a positive allometry between dependent and independent variables, whose y-intercept but not the slope, was affected by the cultivar. The effects of year and site were negligible. For each branch characteristic, cultivar-specific models were more accurate than common models built with pooled data from the four cultivars. Prediction quality was satisfactory but with data dispersion around the models, particularly for large values. Leaf area and stem and branch mass of mango current-year branches could be satisfactorily estimated on the basis of branch basal cross-sectional area with cultivar-specific allometric models. The results suggested that, in addition to the heteroscedastic behavior of the variables studied, model accuracy was probably related to the functional plasticity of branches in relation to the light environment and/or to the number of growth units composing the branches.

  17. Real-world emissions from model year 1993, 2000, and 2010 passenger cars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M.; Goodwin, R.; Watkins, R. [and others

    1995-11-01

    Air pollution by cars and light trucks is a major problem in metropolitan areas in the United States and around the world. Much of the discussion of this issue is based on the emissions per vehicle mile as determined under somewhat artificial testing conditions. The pollutants actually emitted vary considerably with the particular vehicle and the way it is driven, but the average emissions per mile are much higher than the test values. This report concerns the sources and levels of excess emissions, and the potential for reducing them. The history of automotive emissions regulation reveals remarkable success in reducing the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO{sub x}) from new automobiles - as measured in certification tests. The grams-per-mile (g/mile) standards for these tests are stringent, with 96% reductions mandated in comparison to the estimated pre-control (mid-1960s) levels for CO and HC; and 75% reductions mandated for NO{sub x}. Powerful new technologies have been developed and incorporated into every new vehicle in order to accomplish these reductions. Most noteworthy are the catalytic converter and closed-loop engine controls; the latter includes sensors before and after the engine proper, and computer analysis of the information leading to real-time control of fuel injection, with the principal objective of maintaining just the right chemical balance of fuel and air. The average lifetime real-world g/mile emissions associated with conventional gasoline fueled cars for model years 1993, 2000, and 2010 have been projected. Results are discussed.

  18. A Multi-Year Ammunition Procurement Model for Department of the Navy Non-Nuclear Ordnance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bruggeman, John

    2003-01-01

    ... model that is then optimized to mimic perfect manual planning, introduces a metric for quantifying the capability provided by a given inventory of a munition, and introduces the Assessment and Investment Model (AIM...

  19. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimi McEvoy

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis: A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS; eight groups (64 students by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment and session satisfaction (survey in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results: We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students’ reflective scores (p=0.0003 and satisfaction (p=0.0001. T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033; there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students’ reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions: Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students’ reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic

  20. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Mimi; Pollack, Staci; Dyche, Lawrence; Burton, William

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students) were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS); eight groups (64 students) by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students) were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment) and session satisfaction (survey) in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students' reflective scores (p=0.0003) and satisfaction (p=0.0001). T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033); there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students' reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students' reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic development. Overall, students

  1. The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: a 10-year review of empirical studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos; Karlaftis, Matthew G.; Tsamboulas, Dimitrios

    2010-01-01

    The gravity model has been extensively used in international trade research for the last 40 years because of its considerable empirical robustness and explanatory power. Since their introduction in the 1960's, gravity models have been used for assessing trade policy implications and, particularly recently, for analyzing the effects of Free Trade Agreements on international trade. The objective of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models, highlight best practic...

  2. Microscopic Car Modeling for Intelligent Traffic and Scenario Generation in the UCF Driving Simulator : Year 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    A multi-year project was initiated to introduce autonomous vehicles in the University of Central Florida (UCF) Driving Simulator for real-time interaction with the simulator vehicle. This report describes the progress during the second year. In the f...

  3. A simple model for 100 K-year oscillations in glaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindzen, R. S.

    1986-01-01

    A simple climatic model which produces glaciation cycles of 100 K periods in response to forcing by 20 K, 40 K, and 100 K periods is described. The model is based on Milankovitch's (1930) hypothesis that glaciation fluctuations are forced by orbital variation and the associated change in insolation. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model, and the relation between heat variations and the ice/snow line are analyzed. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model is between the pole and 53 deg latitude and the line's position is the forcing for the glaciation cycle. Examples of the model's response to forcing are presented and evaluated. The negative glaciation permitted by the model is studied. The role of CO2 feedback in the glaciation cycle is investigated.

  4. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2018-05-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P model was able to distinguish well among three risk groups based on tertiles of the risk score. Adding treatment modality to the model did not decrease the predictive power. As a post hoc analysis, we tested the added value of comorbidity as scored by American Society of Anesthesiologists score in a subsample, which increased the C statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  5. Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that’s constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing

  6. Ad hoc modeling in agronomy: What have we learned in the last 15 years?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Affholder, F.; Tittonell, P.A.; Corbeels, M.; Roux, S.; Motisi, N.; Tixier, P.; Wery, J.

    2012-01-01

    The “Use and Abuse of Crop Simulation Models” special issue of Agronomy Journal published in 1996 ended with the myth of the universal crop model. Sinclair and Seligman consequently recommended tailoring models to specific problems. This paper reviews the fate of the idea of such ad hoc approaches

  7. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Several studies have attributed social demographic and environmental characteristics to differentials in children mortality rates worldwide but there is paucity of information on modelling of children survival in Nigeria. In this study we modelled children survival in Nigeria and predicted their chances of survival in ...

  8. The Pieter Schippers story : Almost 40 years of developments in sonar performance modelling in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, P.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Beerens, S.P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is dedicated to the work of Pieter Schippers and gives an overview of his achievement in sonar performance modelling over his career. This publication is the last of a long list, many of which published at UDT [1-5]. A historical review is presented of the sonar performance modeling work

  9. Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-07-27

    This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

  10. A Model to Predict Student Failure in the First Year of the Undergraduate Medical Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard J.A. Baars

    2017-06-01

    Discussion: The earliest moment with the highest specificity to predict student failure in the first-year curriculum seems to be at 6 months. However, additional factors are needed to improve this prediction or to bring forward the predictive moment.

  11. Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    We apply GENMOM, a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, to simulate eight equilibrium time slices at 3000-year intervals for the past 21 000 years forced by changes in Earth–Sun geometry, atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), continental ice sheets, and sea level. Simulated global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 3.8 ◦C and the rate of post-glacial warming is in overall agreement with recently published temperature reconstructions. The greatest rate of warming occurs between 15 and 12 ka (2.4 ◦C over land, 0.7 ◦C over oceans, and 1.4 ◦C globally) in response to changes in radiative forcing from the diminished extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets and increases in GHGs and NH summer insolation. The modeled LGM and 6 ka temperature and precipitation climatologies are generally consistent with proxy reconstructions, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations, and other paleoclimate data–model analyses. The model does not capture the mid-Holocene “thermal maximum” and gradual cooling to preindustrial (PI) global temperature found in the data. Simulated monsoonal precipitation in North Africa peaks between 12 and 9 ka at values ∼ 50 % greater than those of the PI, and Indian monsoonal precipitation peaks at 12 and 9 ka at values ∼ 45 % greater than the PI. GENMOM captures the reconstructed LGM extent of NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice. The simulated present-day Antarctica Circumpolar Current (ACC) is ∼ 48 % weaker than the observed (62 versus 119 Sv). The simulated present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of 19.3 ± 1.4 Sv on the Bermuda Rise (33◦ N) is comparable with observed value of 18.7 ± 4.8 Sv. AMOC at 33◦ N is reduced by ∼ 15 % during the LGM, and the largest post-glacial increase (∼ 11 %) occurs during the 15 ka time slice.

  12. A Multi-Year Plan for Enhancing Turbulence Modeling in Hydra-TH Revised and Updated Version 2.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Thomas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Berndt, Markus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Magolan, Ben [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to document a multi-year plan for enhancing turbulence modeling in Hydra-TH for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Hydra-TH is being developed to the meet the high- fidelity, high-Reynolds number CFD based thermal hydraulic simulation needs of the program. This work is being conducted within the thermal hydraulics methods (THM) focus area. This report is an extension of THM CASL milestone L3:THM.CFD.P10.02 [33] (March, 2015) and picks up where it left off. It will also serve to meet the requirements of CASL THM level three milestone, L3:THM.CFD.P11.04, scheduled for completion September 30, 2015. The objectives of this plan will be met by: maturation of recently added turbulence models, strategic design/development of new models and systematic and rigorous testing of existing and new models and model extensions. While multi-phase turbulent flow simulations are important to the program, only single-phase modeling will be considered in this report. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also an important modeling methodology. However, at least in the first year, the focus is on steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling.

  13. Cardiovascular medication changes over 5 years in a national data linkage study: implications for risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehta S

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Suneela Mehta,1 Rod Jackson,1 Sue Wells,1 Jeff Harrison,2 Daniel J Exeter,1 Andrew J Kerr1,3 1Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, 2School of Pharmacy, University of Auckland, 3Cardiology Services, Middlemore Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand Background: Despite widespread use of cardiovascular disease (CVD preventive medications in cohorts used to develop CVD risk prediction models, only some incorporate baseline CVD pharmacotherapy and none account for treatment changes during study follow-up. Therefore, current risk prediction scores may underestimate the true CVD event risk. We examined changes in CVD pharmacotherapy over 5 years in preparation for developing new 5-year risk prediction models.Methods: Anonymized individual-level linkage of eight national administrative health datasets enabled identification of all New Zealanders aged 30–74 years, without prior hospitalization for CVD or heart failure, who utilized publicly funded health services during 2006. We determined proportions of participants dispensed blood pressure lowering, lipid lowering, and antiplatelet/anticoagulant pharmacotherapy at baseline in 2006, and the proportion of person years of follow-up (2007–2011 where dispensing occurred.Results: The study population comprised of 1,766,584 individuals, representing ~85% of all New Zealanders aged 30–74 years without prior CVD or heart failure in 2006, with mean follow-up of 4.9 years (standard deviation 0.6 years; 8,589,931 total person years. CVD medications were dispensed to 21% of people at baseline, with most single or combination pharmacotherapies continuing for ≥80% of follow-up. Complete discontinuation of baseline treatment accounted for 2% of follow-up time while CVD pharmacotherapy that commenced after baseline accounted for 7% of total follow-up time. Conclusion: In a national primary prevention cohort of 30–74 year olds, one in five received baseline CVD primary preventive pharmacotherapy and medication

  14. PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

    2009-10-01

    Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

  15. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  16. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside : inspections and traffic enforcements i...

  17. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model fiscal year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  18. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model, fiscal year 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  19. The Biopsychosocial Model 25 Years Later: Principles, Practice, and Scientific Inquiry

    OpenAIRE

    Borrell-Carrió, Francesc; Suchman, Anthony L.; Epstein, Ronald M.

    2004-01-01

    The biopsychosocial model is both a philosophy of clinical care and a practical clinical guide. Philosophically, it is a way of understanding how suffering, disease, and illness are affected by multiple levels of organization, from the societal to the molecular. At the practical level, it is a way of understanding the patient’s subjective experience as an essential contributor to accurate diagnosis, health outcomes, and humane care. In this article, we defend the biopsychosocial model as a ne...

  20. Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model: Results from the First Year in Real-Time Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, M. D.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    In October 2016, the first version of the Geospace model was transitioned into real-time operations at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The Geospace model is a part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan, and the model simulates the full time-dependent 3D Geospace environment (Earth's magnetosphere, ring current and ionosphere) and predicts global space weather parameters such as induced magnetic perturbations in space and on Earth's surface. The current version of the Geospace model uses three coupled components of SWMF: the BATS-R-US global magnetosphere model, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere, and the Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM). In the operational mode, SWMF/Geospace runs continually in real-time as long as there is new solar wind data arriving from a satellite at L1, either DSCOVR or ACE. We present an analysis of the overall performance of the Geospace model during the first year of real-time operations. Evaluation metrics include Kp, Dst, as well as regional magnetometer stations. We will also present initial results from new products, such as the AE index, available with the recent upgrade to the Geospace model.

  1. An Evaluation of the Model School Division (MSD) Preschool Program for the School Year 1973-74.

    Science.gov (United States)

    District of Columbia Public Schools, Washington, DC. Dept. of Research and Evaluation.

    This study was designed to assess the extent to which children served by the Model Schools Division Preschool Program developed socially, intellectually, physically and emotionally during the 1973-74 school year. This evaluation was also designed to measure the appropriateness of the learning environment and the amount of services provided by the…

  2. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River

  3. 40 CFR 1039.101 - What exhaust emission standards must my engines meet after the 2014 model year?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...-cooled, direct injection engines below 8 kW to an optional Tier 4 PM standard of 0.60 g/kW-hr. The term... my engines meet after the 2014 model year? 1039.101 Section 1039.101 Protection of Environment... NONROAD COMPRESSION-IGNITION ENGINES Emission Standards and Related Requirements § 1039.101 What exhaust...

  4. Long-term exposure models for traffic related NO 2 across geographically diverse areas over separate years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally Liu, L.-J.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Keidel, Dirk; Gemperli, Armin; Ineichen, Alex; Hazenkamp-von Arx, Marianne; Bayer-Oglesby, Lucy; Rochat, Thierry; Künzli, Nino; Ackermann-Liebrich, Ursula; Straehl, Peter; Schwartz, Joel; Schindler, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Although recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have embraced land-use regression models for estimating outdoor traffic exposure, few have examined the spatio-temporal variability of traffic related pollution over a long term period and the optimal methods to take these factors into account for exposure estimates. We used home outdoor NO 2 measurements taken from eight geographically diverse areas to examine spatio-temporal variations, construct, and evaluate models that could best predict the within-city contrasts in observations. Passive NO 2 measurements were taken outside of up to 100 residences per area over three seasons in 1993 and 2003 as part of the Swiss cohort study on air pollution and lung and heart disease in adults (SAPALDIA). The spatio-temporal variation of NO 2 differed by area and year. Regression models constructed using the annual NO 2 means from central monitoring stations and geographic parameters predicted home outdoor NO 2 levels better than a dispersion model. However, both the regression and dispersion models underestimated the within-city contrasts of NO 2 levels. Our results indicated that the best models should be constructed for individual areas and years, and would use the dispersion estimates as the urban background, geographic information system (GIS) parameters to enhance local characteristics, and temporal and meteorological variables to capture changing local dynamics. Such models would be powerful tools for assessing health effects from long-term exposure to air pollution in a large cohort.

  5. The Swarm Initial Field Model – a Model of the Earth’s Magnetic Field for 2014 Determined From One Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    Almost one year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its......) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial...... and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from one year of Swarm satellite data by comparison with other recent models that also include non-Swarm magnetic observations....

  6. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batchelor, M T [Department of Theoretical Physics, RSPSE and Department of Mathematics, MSI, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2005-04-08

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with {delta}-function potentials, the

  7. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batchelor, M T

    2005-01-01

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with δ-function potentials, the Heisenberg spin chain, the Hubbard model, exchange models, the Calogero

  8. Cause-Effect Analysis: Improvement of a First Year Engineering Students' Calculus Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of…

  9. Catastrophe modelling: deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic risk has mostly focused on property losses and the resulting impact on property insurance companies.

  10. Modeling the underlying tobacco smoking predictors among 1st year university students in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hassan Sahebihagh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are scant studies on the prevalence and determinants of tobacco smoking among 1st year university students in Iran. We aim to determine the prevalence of substance abuse and identify factors related with tobacco smoking in 1st year students of Qazvin University of Medical Sciences (QUMS. Methods: A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on sociodemographic, cigarette smoking, hookah smoking, and related risk factors among 521 1st year students in QUMS between January and February 2014. We used logistic regression to determine factors associated with substance abuse among students. Results: The descriptive statistics indicated that the prevalence of lifetime cigarette and hookah smoking was 8.6% (confidence interval [CI] 95%: 6.5–11.4 and 35.5% (CI 95%: 31.5–39.7, respectively. After adjustment for other factors, being male, the presence of any smoker in the family and having smoker friends were factors associated with cigarette and hookah smoking among students. Our findings also revealed the co-occurrence of risk-taking behaviors among students. Conclusions: Our study showed considerably low prevalence of tobacco smoking among 1st year students. Longitudinal studies are necessary to approve the observed results of this study and thus allow for a certain generalization of the observations.

  11. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...

  12. Modeling Racial Differences in the Effects of Racial Representation on 2-Year College Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Museus, Samuel D.; Jayakumar, Uma M.; Robinson, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The failure of many 2-year college students to persist and complete a post-secondary credential or degree remains a problem of paramount importance to higher education policymakers and practitioners. While racial representation--or the extent to which a student's racial group is represented on their respective campus--might be one factor that…

  13. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fagbamigbe

    high in these periods, the contribution of the probability of dying in the 0-4 years of human life is substantial, ii) impact on the average expectation of life and the art of population growth, iii) sensitivity to environmental and sanitary conditions and iv) usefulness of infant and child mortality as health indicator and living standard ...

  14. A model of Earth’s magnetic field derived from 2 years of Swarm satellite constellation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Kotsiaros, Stavros

    2016-01-01

    More than 2 years of magnetic field data taken by the three-satellite constellation mission Swarm are used to derive a model of Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation. This model is called SIFMplus. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites......, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect of Swarm by including East–West magnetic intensity and vector field gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences of the magnetic intensity as well as of the vector components provide further information concerning...... dependence for n=7–15, demonstrates the possibility to determine high-quality field models from only 2 years of Swarm data, thanks to the unique constellation aspect of Swarm. To account for the magnetic signature caused by ionospheric electric currents at polar latitudes we co-estimate, together...

  15. The model of the first-year students’ adaptation to vocational training: the example of foreign language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galishninkova Elena M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of adaptation of the first-year students to professional activity by means of foreign language. To design the adaptation model, we developed four-block questionnaires to determine students’ readiness for adaptation. The experiment resulted in the three groups of students with high, average and low levels of adaptation. Students with low level of adaptation become the target of our research. To remove the difficulties in studying a foreign language by the third group of students, an adaptation model was elaborated. Further, we identified the conditions for the effective implementation of the adaptation model of students to vocational training. In our view, these pedagogical conditions promote a more “sparing” transition of students to their main function as first-year students and increase the level of foreign language learning as well as improve the educational indicators.

  16. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  17. 49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... each planned product action (e.g., new model, mix change) which will affect the average fuel economy of... Act must contain the following information: (a) Projected average fuel economy and production levels for the class of automobiles which may fail to comply with a fuel economy standard and for any other...

  18. 25 Years of DECOVALEX - Research Advances and Lessons Learned from an International Model Comparison Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of an international research and model comparison collaboration (DECOVALEX) for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. Prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and is also relevant for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX research activities have been supported by a large number of radioactive-waste-management organizations and regulatory authorities. Research teams from more than a dozen international partner organizations have participated in the comparative modeling evaluation of complex field and laboratory experiments in the UK, Switzerland, Japan, France and Sweden. Together, these tasks (1) have addressed a wide range of relevant issues related to engineered and natural system behavior in argillaceous, crystalline and other host rocks, (2) have yielded in-depth knowledge of coupled THM and THMC processes associated with nuclear waste repositories and wider geo-engineering applications, and (3) have advanced the capability, as well as demonstrated the suitability, of numerical simulation models for quantitative analysis.

  19. Modeling suspended sediment discharge from the Waipaoa River system, New Zealand : The last 3000 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kettner, A.J.; Gomez, B.; Syvitski, J.P.M.

    2007-01-01

    HydroTrend, a hydrologic-transport model, is used to simulate the water and suspended sediment discharge of the Waipaoa River system over the last 3 Kyr, a time period in which a well-documented sequence of natural events and anthropogenic activities that profoundly impacted drainage basin processes

  20. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 4 (Appendix IV)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 4 contains the following appendix sections: Radiative heat transfer properties for black liquor combustion -- Facilities and techniques and Spectral absorbance and emittance data; and Radiate heat transfer determination of the optical constants of ash samples from kraft recovery boilers -- Calculation procedure; Computation program; Density determination; Particle diameter determination; Optical constant data; and Uncertainty analysis.

  1. Twenty years at the margins: the Herman-Chomsky propaganda model, 1988-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Mullen, Andy

    2008-01-01

    2008 marks the 20th anniversary of the publication of Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky. This comment briefly assesses how the Herman-Chomsky Propaganda Model (PM) has been received within the field of media and communication studies in the United Kingdom.

  2. Moving beyond Basic Numeracy: Data Modeling in the Early Years of Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    Recent research has shown that young children are capable of engaging in data modeling and making informed judgments, an aspect of the mathematics curriculum not previously considered integral to early numeracy. In an Australian study, a sample of 21 highly able Grade 1 students was engaged in a series of investigations where they developed their…

  3. Anatomy integration blueprint: A fourth-year musculoskeletal anatomy elective model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D; Kauffman, Gordon L; Kothari, Milind J; Mosher, Timothy J; Silvis, Matthew L; Wawrzyniak, John R; Anderson, Daniel T; Black, Kevin P

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of a course wherein the primary learning and teaching objective is to integrate basic science anatomy knowledge with clinical education. The course was developed through collaboration by a multi-specialist course development team (composed of both basic scientists and physicians) and was founded in current adult learning theories. The course was designed to be widely applicable to multiple future specialties, using current published reports regarding the topics and clinical care areas relying heavily on anatomical knowledge regardless of specialist focus. To this end, the course focuses on the role of anatomy in the diagnosis and treatment of frequently encountered musculoskeletal conditions. Our iterative implementation and action research approach to this course development has yielded a curricular template for anatomy integration into clinical years. Key components for successful implementation of these types of courses, including content topic sequence, the faculty development team, learning approaches, and hidden curricula, were developed. We also report preliminary feedback from course stakeholders and lessons learned through the process. The purpose of this report is to enhance the current literature regarding basic science integration in the clinical years of medical school. © 2014 American Association of Anatomists.

  4. Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Hiemstra, Christopher [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Christensen, Jens [DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INS.

    2009-01-01

    Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrIS were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.

  5. Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Schärrer

    Full Text Available Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD. The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef, age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years. The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm. The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants.

  6. Model application of Murabahah financing acknowledgement statement of Sharia accounting standard No 59 Year 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Iskandar; Panjaitan, Rohdearni; Erlina; Ginting, Syafruddin; Maksum, Azhar; Abubakar

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to observe murabahah financing implantation model. Observations were made on one of the sharia banks going public in Indonesia. Form of implementation of such implementation in the form of financing given the exact facilities and maximum financing, then the provision of financing should be adjusted to the type, business conditions and business plans prospective mudharib. If the financing provided is too low with the mudharib requirement not reaching the target and the financing is not refundable.

  7. Animal Models of Chemical Carcinogenesis: Driving Breakthroughs in Cancer Research for 100 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Christopher J

    2015-10-01

    The identification of carcinogens in the workplace, diet, and environment through chemical carcinogenesis studies in animals has directly contributed to a reduction of cancer burden in the human population. Reduced exposure to these carcinogens through lifestyle changes, government regulation, or change in industry practices has reduced cancer incidence in exposed populations. In addition to providing the first experimental evidence for cancer's relationship to chemical and radiation exposure, animal models of environmentally induced cancer have and will continue to provide important insight into the causes, mechanisms, and conceptual frameworks of cancer. More recently, combining chemical carcinogens with genetically engineered mouse models has emerged as an invaluable approach to study the complex interaction between genotype and environment that contributes to cancer development. In the future, animal models of environmentally induced cancer are likely to provide insight into areas such as the epigenetic basis of cancer, genetic modifiers of cancer susceptibility, the systems biology of cancer, inflammation and cancer, and cancer prevention. © 2015 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

  8. Animal Models of Peritoneal Dialysis: Thirty Years of Our Own Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Ewa; Schwermer, Krzysztof; Hoppe, Krzysztof; Lindholm, Bengt; Breborowicz, Andrzej

    2015-01-01

    Experimental animal models improve our understanding of technical problems in peritoneal dialysis PD, and such studies contribute to solving crucial clinical problems. We established an acute and chronic PD model in nonuremic and uremic rats. We observed that kinetics of PD in rats change as the animals are aging, and this effect is due not only to an increasing peritoneal surface area, but also to changes in the permeability of the peritoneum. Changes of the peritoneal permeability seen during chronic PD in rats are comparable to results obtained in humans treated with PD. Effluent dialysate can be drained repeatedly to measure concentration of various bioactive molecules and to correlate the results with the peritoneal permeability. Additionally we can study in in vitro conditions properties of the effluent dialysate on cultured peritoneal mesothelial cells or fibroblasts. We can evaluate acute and chronic effect of various additives to the dialysis fluid on function and permeability of the peritoneum. Results from such study are even more relevant to the clinical scenario when experiments are performed in uremic rats. Our experimental animal PD model not only helps to understand the pathophysiology of PD but also can be used for testing biocompatibility of new PD fluids. PMID:26236720

  9. Modeling vertical movement of organic matter in a soil incubated for 41 years with "1"4C labeled straw

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, S.; Christensen, B.T.; Thomsen, I.K.

    2007-01-01

    The distribution of organic matter (OM) in the soil profile reflects the balance between inputs and decomposition at different depths as well as transport of OM within the profile. In this study we modeled movement of OM in the soil profile as a result of mechanisms resulting in dispersive...... and advective movement. The model was used to interpret the distribution of C-14 in the soil profile 41 years after the labeling event. The model fitted the observed distribution of C-14 well (R-2 = 0.988, AIC(c) = -82.6), with a dispersion constant of D = 0.71 cm(2) yr(-1) and an advection constant of v = 0.......0081 cm yr(-1). However, the model consistently underestimated the amount of OM in the soil layers from 27 to 37 cm depth. A possible explanation for this is that different fractions of OM are transported by different mechanisms. For example, particulate OM, organomineral colloids and dissolved OM...

  10. [Personality in the big five model and maintaining abstinence after one year follow-up].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betkowska-Korpała, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    To compare Five-Factor personality traits in patients maintaining abstinence and relapsed patients (i.e. those who relapsed within a year after treatment), following eight weeks of in-house treatment and three months of out-patient treatment. In longitudinal studies, a sample of 190 patients was analysed (49 females and 141 males; mean age: 43). The patients participated in therapeutic programmes at several addiction treatment centres across Poland. Personality traits were measured using the NEO PI-R inventory proposed by Costa and McCrae (adapted into Polish by Jerzy Siuta) at the initial stage of the treatment. Abstinence was assessed based on the interview. As far as the main traits are concerned, abstinent patients have higher levels of Agreeableness and Conscientiousness than patients who relapsed within a year following the therapy. Moreover, they are characterised by higher levels of constituent traits: Straightforwardness, Ideas and Altruism, as well as higher levels of Order, Self-Discipline and Dutifulness. However, their levels of Hostility are lower compared to patients not maintaining abstinence. After one year follow-up, the group maintaining abstinence is characterised by a higher Agreeableness and Conscientiousness, which is beneficial for cooperation with others as well as undertaking and realising tasks. Moreover, lower constituent values of Neuroticism are linked to higher adaptability and greater therapy participation than in a relapsed group. An early identification of patients bearing traits linked to lower adaptability will decrease the possibility of relapse thanks to making a greater effort at enhancing treatment participation while paying special attention to any co-existing psychopathology.

  11. Cervical cancer screening in Australia: modelled evaluation of the impact of changing the recommended interval from two to three years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kirsten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that sexually active women between the ages of 18-70 years attend routine screening every 2 years. The publically funded National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007, with catch-up in females aged 12-26 years conducted until 2009; and this may prompt consideration of whether the screening interval and other aspects of the organized screening program could be reviewed. The aim of the current evaluation was to assess the epidemiologic outcomes and cost implications of changing the recommended screening interval in Australia to 3 years. Methods We used a modelling approach to evaluate the effects of moving to a 3-yearly recommended screening interval. We used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry over the period 1997-2007 to model compliance with routine screening under current practice, and registry data from other countries with 3-yearly recommendations to inform assumptions about future screening behaviour under two alternative systems for screening organisation - retention of a reminder-based system (as in New Zealand, or a move to a call-and-recall system (as in England. Results A 3-yearly recommendation is predicted to be of similar effectiveness to the current 2-yearly recommendation, resulting in no substantial change to the total number of incident cervical cancer cases or cancer deaths, or to the estimated 0.68% average cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated Australian women. However, a 3-yearly screening policy would be associated with decreases in the annual number of colposcopy and biopsy procedures performed (by 4-10% and decreases in the number of treatments for pre-invasive lesions (by 2-4%. The magnitude of the decrease in the number of diagnostic procedures and treatments would depend on the method of screening organization, with call-and-recall screening associated with the highest reductions. The

  12. Ready to learn physics: a team-based learning model for first year university

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parappilly, Maria; Schmidt, Lisa; De Ritter, Samantha

    2015-09-01

    Team-based learning (TBL) is an established model of group work which aims to improve students' ability to apply discipline-related content. TBL consists of a readiness assurance process (RAP), student groups and application activities. While TBL has not been implemented widely in science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines, it has been effective in improving student learning in other disciplines. This paper describes the incorporation of TBL activities into a non-calculus based introductory level physics topic—Physics for the Modern World. Students were given pre-class preparation materials and an individual RAP online test before the workshops. The pre-workshop individual RAP test ensured that all students were exposed to concept-based questions before their workshops and motivated them to use the preparatory materials in readiness for the workshop. The students were placed into random teams and during the first part of the workshop, the teams went through a subset of the quiz questions (team RAP test) and in the remaining time, teams completed an in-class assignment. After the workshop students were allowed another attempt at the individual RAP test to see if their knowledge had improved. The ability of TBL to promote student learning of key concepts was evaluated by experiment using pre- and post- testing. The students’ perception of TBL was monitored by discussion posts and survey responses. Finally, the ability of TBL to support peer-peer interaction was evaluated by video analysis of the class. We found that the TBL process improved student learning; students did interact with each other in class; and the students had a positive view of TBL. To assess the transferability of this model to other topics, we conducted a comparison study with an environmental science topic which produced similar results. Our study supports the use of this TBL model in science topics.

  13. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, reexamining the role of the constantproportional tradeoff condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination...

  14. Models of Quality-Adjusted Life Years when Health varies over Time: Survey and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    2006-01-01

    time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard of the health state index, re-examining the role...... of the constant-proportional trade-off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken...

  15. Predicting five-year recurrence rates of kidney stones: an artificial neural network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudarella, Renata; Tonello, Lucio; Rizzoli, Elisabetta; Vescini, Fabio

    2011-03-01

    Due to high recurrence rates of urolithiasis, many attempts have been performed to identify tools for predicting the risk of stone formation. The application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) seems to be a valid candidate for reaching this endpoint. The aim of this study was to find a set of parameters able to predict recurrence episodes immediately after clinical and metabolic evaluation performed at the first visit in a 5-year window. Data were collected from 80 outpatients who presented idiopathic calcium stone disease both at baseline and after 5 years; patients underwent treatment including both general measures and medical therapy. After 5 years, patients were classified into two subsets, namely SSFs (without recurrence episodes), consisting of 45 subjects (56.25%) and RSFs, with at least one episode of recurrence after the baseline, consisting of 35 subjects (43.75%). Helped by conventional statistics (One-way ANOVA and three Discriminant Analyses: standard, backward stepwise and forward stepwise), an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was used to predict recurrence episodes. An optimal set of 6 parameters was identified from amongst the different combinations in order to efficiently predict the outcome of stone recurrence in approximately 90% of cases. This set consist of serum Na and K as well as Na, P, Oxalate and AP (CaP) index from urine. The results obtained with ANN seem to suggest that some kind of relationship is present between the identified parameters and future stone recurrence. This relationship is probably very complex (in the mathematical sense) and non-linear In fact, a Logistic Regression was built as a comparative method and performed less good results at least in terms of accuracy and sensitivity. The application of ANN to the database led to a promising predicting algorithm and suggests that a strongly non-linear relationship seems to exist between the parameters and the recurrence episodes. In particular, the ANN approach

  16. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreau, Sebastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halothermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport...... included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experi- ment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary...... factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes...

  17. Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platnick, Steven E.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

  18. Using Logistic Regression to Model New York City Restaurant Grades Over a Two-Year Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Nadler

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A knowledge gap exists in the role of restaurant type on the prediction of attaining the highest grade possible from the local health inspection agency. This study identified disparities using logistic regression between the issuance of a Grade A and restaurant type and location. This study tested the eight most inspected types of restaurants within the City of New York and calculated the odds ratios of their receiving the highest inspection grade by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. A fitted equation has been proposed for the prediction of receiving the highest inspection grade based upon the citywide results of these eight restaurant types from calendar years 2011 and 2012. The results suggest that certain styles of restaurants have lower odds of receiving the highest grade in comparison to American-style restaurants.

  19. Comparing transient, accelerated, and equilibrium simulations of the last 30 000 years with the GENIE-1 model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Lunt

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine several aspects of the ocean-atmosphere system over the last 30 000 years, by carrying out simulations with prescribed ice sheets, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and orbital parameters. We use the GENIE-1 model with a frictional geostrophic ocean, dynamic sea ice, an energy balance atmosphere, and a land-surface scheme with fixed vegetation. A transient simulation, with boundary conditions derived from ice-core records and ice sheet reconstructions, is compared with equilibrium snapshot simulations, including the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present; 21 kyrBP, mid-Holocene (6 kyrBP and pre-industrial. The equilibrium snapshot simulations are all very similar to their corresponding time period in the transient simulation, indicating that over the last 30 000 years, the model's ocean-atmosphere system is close to equilibrium with its boundary conditions. However, our simulations neglect the transfer of fresh water from and to the ocean, resulting from the growth and decay of ice sheets, which would, in reality, lead to greater disequilibrium. Additionally, the GENIE-1 model exhibits a rather limited response in terms of its Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC over the 30 000 years; a more sensitive AMOC would also be likely to lead to greater disequilibrium. We investigate the method of accelerating the boundary conditions of a transient simulation and find that the Southern Ocean is the region most affected by the acceleration. The Northern Hemisphere, even with a factor of 10 acceleration, is relatively unaffected. The results are robust to changes to several tunable parameters in the model. They also hold when a higher vertical resolution is used in the ocean.

  20. The Effect of Talking Drawings on Five-Year-Old Turkish Children's Mental Models of the Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahi, Berat

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study is to determine the effect of talking drawings on Turkish preschool children's mental models of the water cycle. The study was conducted in the city of Kastamonu, located in the north-west of Turkey. A total of 40 five-year-old preschool children participated in the study in the spring term of the 2015-2016 school…

  1. Standards in Modeling and Simulation: The Next Ten Years MODSIM World Paper 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Andrew J.; Diallo, Saikou; Sherfey, Solomon R.; Tolk, Andreas; Turnitsa, Charles D.; Petty, Mikel; Wiesel, Eric

    2011-01-01

    The world has moved on since the introduction of the Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) standard in the early 1980s. The cold-war maybe over but there is still a requirement to train for and analyze the next generation of threats that face the free world. With the emergence of new and more powerful computer technology and techniques means that modeling and simulation (M&S) has become an important and growing, part in satisfying this requirement. As an industry grows, the benefits from standardization within that industry grow with it. For example, it is difficult to imagine what the USA would be like without the 110 volts standard for domestic electricity supply. This paper contains an overview of the outcomes from a recent workshop to investigate the possible future of M&S standards within the federal government.

  2. A Multi-Year Study of the Impact of the Rice Model Teacher Professional Development on Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viorica Diaconu, Dana; Radigan, Judy; Suskavcevic, Milijana; Nichol, Carolyn

    2012-04-01

    A teacher professional development program for in-service elementary school science teachers, the Rice Elementary Model Science Lab (REMSL), was developed for urban school districts serving predominately high-poverty, high-minority students. Teachers with diverse skills and science capacities came together in Professional Learning Communities, one full day each week throughout an academic year, to create a classroom culture for science instruction. Approximately 80 teachers each year received professional development in science content and pedagogy using the same inquiry-based constructivist methods that the teachers were expected to use in their classrooms. During this four-year study, scientists and educators worked with elementary teachers in a year-long model science lab environment to provide science content and science pedagogy. The effectiveness of the program was measured using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods that allowed the researchers to triangulate the findings from quantitative measures, such as content test and surveys, with the emerging themes from the qualitative instruments, such as class observations and participant interviews. Results showed that, in all four years, teachers from the REMSL Treatment group have significantly increased their science content knowledge (p < 0.05). During the last two years, their gains in science content knowledge, use of inquiry-based instruction and leadership skills were significantly higher than those of the Control group teachers' (p < 0.01, p < 0.001 and p < 0.05, respectively). Three themes resonated in the interviews with participants: science content knowledge growth, constructivist pedagogy and leadership skills.

  3. Modelling the lay expert for first-year medical students: the actor-patient as teacher.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestel, Debra; Muir, Elizabeth; Plant, Marilyn; Kidd, Jane; Thurlow, Sue

    2002-09-01

    Actors are widely used in medical education as simulated patients. In this session, the role of actors was extended to 'simulated students' and facilitators in an introductory communication session. After an initial activity with the entire cohort of first-year students, groups of 20 students worked with either an actor or medical teacher in three activities. The activities aimed to raise students' awareness of the range of communication challenges in medical education and practice. After the session, students completed evaluation forms based on their experiences in the session. The results revealed no difference between students who were facilitated by actors or medical teachers in relation to meeting the learning objectives and their ratings of the usefulness of the activities to support learning. The actors who participated in this session were experienced in working with medical students. Their enhanced role provides students with an opportunity to identify with and reflect on the expertise of a lay teacher and to consider extending their definition of a learning opportunity to more informal encounters.

  4. The trilayer approach of teaching physiology, pathophysiology, and pharmacology concepts in a first-year pharmacy course: the TLAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Mohammed A; Sabnis, Gauri; Farris, Fred

    2017-09-01

    This paper describes the development, implementation, and students' perceptions of a new trilayer approach of teaching (TLAT). The TLAT model involved blending lecture, in-class group activities, and out-of-class assignments on selected content areas and was implemented initially in a first-year integrated pharmacy course. Course contents were either delivered by traditional lectures or by the TLAT. A survey instrument was distributed by SurveyMonkey to determine students' perceptions of the TLAT model. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Students' performance in a total of 225 examination and quiz questions was analyzed to evaluate whether the TLAT model improved students' learning. Students' ( n = 98) performance scores for TLAT-based and lecture-based questions were 83.3 ± 10.2 and 79.5 ± 14.0, respectively ( P Physiological Society.

  5. Socially valued role models 25 years after the fall of Communism: a quantitative study on students and mass media exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Duduciuc

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available How young people appreciate certain public personalities and interpersonal relations in respect with their professional path have been a topic of interest among social science and communication scholars. The aim of this article consists in investigating the relation between media effects and Romanian students’ role models in lines of cultivation theory (G. Gerbner et al., 1977. On this purpose, 188 students respond to a questionnaire regarding exposure to media, the prevalent role models valued by them and their views on life achievements conveyed by the media and society at large: teachers, celebrities, artists, politicians, businessmen, priests, parents. The results showed that students relate more to role models which are contextually close to them (parents, siblings than those frequently covered by the media (politicians, showbiz celebrities. Based on these results, we stated that 25 year after the fall of communism Romanian young people do not find a contemporary personality to value as a representative for their social identity.

  6. Islands as model systems in ecology and evolution: prospects fifty years after MacArthur-Wilson.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Ben H; Simberloff, Daniel; Ricklefs, Robert E; Aguilée, Robin; Condamine, Fabien L; Gravel, Dominique; Morlon, Hélène; Mouquet, Nicolas; Rosindell, James; Casquet, Juliane; Conti, Elena; Cornuault, Josselin; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Hengl, Tomislav; Norder, Sietze J; Rijsdijk, Kenneth F; Sanmartín, Isabel; Strasberg, Dominique; Triantis, Kostas A; Valente, Luis M; Whittaker, Robert J; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Emerson, Brent C; Thébaud, Christophe

    2015-02-01

    The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, 'An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography', was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, island systems have provided new insights into the formation of ecological communities. Here, building on such developments, we highlight prospects for research on islands to improve our understanding of the ecology and evolution of communities in general. Throughout, we emphasise how attributes of islands combine to provide unusual research opportunities, the implications of which stretch far beyond islands. Molecular tools and increasing data acquisition now permit re-assessment of some fundamental issues that interested MacArthur and Wilson. These include the formation of ecological networks, species abundance distributions, and the contribution of evolution to community assembly. We also extend our prospects to other fields of ecology and evolution - understanding ecosystem functioning, speciation and diversification - frequently employing assets of oceanic islands in inferring the geographic area within which evolution has occurred, and potential barriers to gene flow. Although island-based theory is continually being enriched, incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics is identified as a major challenge for the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  7. A palaeobiogeographic model for biotic diversification within Amazonia over the past three million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribas, Camila C.; Aleixo, Alexandre; Nogueira, Afonso C. R.; Miyaki, Cristina Y.; Cracraft, Joel

    2012-01-01

    Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain high species diversity in Amazonia, but few generalizations have emerged. In part, this has arisen from the scarcity of rigorous tests for mechanisms promoting speciation, and from major uncertainties about palaeogeographic events and their spatial and temporal associations with diversification. Here, we investigate the environmental history of Amazonia using a phylogenetic and biogeographic analysis of trumpeters (Aves: Psophia), which are represented by species in each of the vertebrate areas of endemism. Their relationships reveal an unforeseen ‘complete’ time-slice of Amazonian diversification over the past 3.0 Myr. We employ this temporally calibrated phylogeny to test competing palaeogeographic hypotheses. Our results are consistent with the establishment of the current Amazonian drainage system at approximately 3.0–2.0 Ma and predict the temporal pattern of major river formation over Plio-Pleistocene times. We propose a palaeobiogeographic model for the last 3.0 Myr of Amazonian history that has implications for understanding patterns of endemism, the temporal history of Amazonian diversification and mechanisms promoting speciation. The history of Psophia, in combination with new geological evidence, provides the strongest direct evidence supporting a role for river dynamics in Amazonian diversification, and the absence of such a role for glacial climate cycles and refugia. PMID:21795268

  8. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nigg, David W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  9. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels.

  10. Building information modelling (BIM) after ten years: Malaysian construction players’ perception of BIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latiffi, A. Ahmad; Brahim, J.; Fathi, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    Building Information Modelling (BIM) concept has expanded widely in many countries for more than a decade with its role of improving current practices in construction projects. However, the understanding of BIM differs among construction players, depending on how construction players utilize the concept in their projects. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the understanding of BIM concept among construction players in the Malaysian construction industry. A literature review on BIM concept and semi-structured interviews with construction players in BIM such as client, civil and structural (C&S) engineer and mechanical and electrical (M&E) engineer, quantity surveyor (QS), contractor, facilities manager and BIM consultant have been conducted in order to achieve this study’s the aim. The results show that the understanding of BIM concept among the construction players is limited to BIM as a process and technology. It is important for the construction players to improve their understanding of BIM as it can be used to enhance performance and productivity of construction projects.

  11. Observations and modeling of fjord sedimentation during the 30 year retreat of Columbia Glacier, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Katherine B; Hallet, Bernard; Pratt, Thomas L.; O'Neel, Shad

    2016-01-01

    To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 108 m3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a−1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

  12. Integrating critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry across a four-year dental curriculum: a model for independent learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Handoo, Nidhi; Solow, Catherine M; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; Finkelstein, Michael W

    2014-03-01

    Introducing critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry (EBD) content into an established dental curriculum can be a difficult and challenging process. Over the past three years, the University of Iowa College of Dentistry has developed and implemented a progressive four-year integrated critical thinking and EBD curriculum. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implementation process to make it available as a model for other dental schools contemplating introduction of critical thinking and EBD into their curricula. The newly designed curriculum built upon an existing problem-based learning foundation, which introduces critical thinking and the scientific literature in the D1 year, in order to expose students to the rationale and resources for practicing EBD in the D2 and D3 years and provide opportunities to practice critical thinking and apply the EBD five-step process in the D2, D3, and D4 years. All curricular content is online, and D3 and D4 EBD activities are integrated within existing clinical responsibilities. The curricular content, student resources, and student activities are described.

  13. Modeling Early Postnatal Brain Growth and Development with CT: Changes in the Brain Radiodensity Histogram from Birth to 2 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauley, K A; Hu, Y; Och, J; Yorks, P J; Fielden, S W

    2018-02-15

    The majority of brain growth and development occur in the first 2 years of life. This study investigated these changes by analysis of the brain radiodensity histogram of head CT scans from the clinical population, 0-2 years of age. One hundred twenty consecutive head CTs with normal findings meeting the inclusion criteria from children from birth to 2 years were retrospectively identified from 3 different CT scan platforms. Histogram analysis was performed on brain-extracted images, and histogram mean, mode, full width at half maximum, skewness, kurtosis, and SD were correlated with subject age. The effects of scan platform were investigated. Normative curves were fitted by polynomial regression analysis. Average total brain volume was 360 cm 3 at birth, 948 cm 3 at 1 year, and 1072 cm 3 at 2 years. Total brain tissue density showed an 11% increase in mean density at 1 year and 19% at 2 years. Brain radiodensity histogram skewness was positive at birth, declining logarithmically in the first 200 days of life. The histogram kurtosis also decreased in the first 200 days to approach a normal distribution. Direct segmentation of CT images showed that changes in brain radiodensity histogram skewness correlated with, and can be explained by, a relative increase in gray matter volume and an increase in gray and white matter tissue density that occurs during this period of brain maturation. Normative metrics of the brain radiodensity histogram derived from routine clinical head CT images can be used to develop a model of normal brain development. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  14. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5-6 year olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A

    2016-01-01

    Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5-6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5-6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5-6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5–6 year olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J.; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L.; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. Objective This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5–6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. Methods 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5–6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Results Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Conclusions Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5–6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. PMID:26647364

  16. Bridging the gap between textbook and maternity patient: a nurse-developed teaching model for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooksey, Nancy Rumsey

    2010-12-01

    Providing more opportunities for first-year medical students to interact with patients in clinical settings is a current discussion topic in medical student education reform. Early clinical experience helps students bridge the gap between textbook and patient while observing patient-centered care, and serves as a first step for students to develop the skills needed to work cooperatively as members of a multidisciplinary health care team. The author developed a model to provide perinatal education to first-year medical students, consistent with the concept of interprofessional education. Primarily first-year medical students participated in the nurse-developed education model, a component of a noncredit extracurricular, student-run perinatal program at a Midwestern university medical center. Students were placed at the bedsides of hospitalized women to provide support and education to them during perinatal procedures, labor, childbirth, and cesarean delivery. A total of 350 students participated over a period of 13 school calendar years. Students remarked that participation in the program reinforced the importance of their concurrent anatomy and physiology classes. They observed interdependence and cooperation among the members of the health care team caring for women, and their evaluations of their experiences at the bedside were highly positive. Women consistently expressed appreciation for the additional individualized attention and education received from our student and nurse team. Nurses can enhance the learning of first-year medical students in the maternity care clinical setting. This nurse-developed education program provided students with a variety of vivid clinical experiences with maternity patients. © 2010, Copyright the Author. Journal compilation © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year-Round Passive Acoustic Data from the Southern California Bight

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year...predictive, year-round habitat models of the presence of calling blue and fin whales in the Southern California Bight (SCB), to facilitate Navy’s...operational needs in this area. OBJECTIVES The primary objective of this research was to develop predictive, year-round habitat models of the presence

  18. Model thermohaline trends in the Mediterranean Sea during the last years: a change with respect to the last decades?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Navarro, F Javier; Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Temperature and salinity outputs from ECCO (years 93-09) and GLORYS (years 03-09) models have been used to compute the thermohaline and steric sea level trends in the surface (0-150 m), intermediate (150 m-600 m), and deep (600 m-bottom) layers of the Mediterranean Sea. Some changes with respect to the second half of the 20th century have been observed: the cooling of the upper waters of the entire eastern basin since 1950 seems to have vanished; the warming of WMDW historically reported for the second half of the last century could have reversed, although there is no agreement between both models at this point (trends of different sign are predicted); the salinification of WMDW reported for the previous decades is not observed in the south-westernmost area in the period 93-09, and a clear change from positive to negative in the steric sea level trend with respect to the period 93-05 is detected due to the sharp decreasing steric sea level of years 02-06.

  19. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Vishnampettai G; Roy, Priyamvada; Das, Shukla; Mogha, Narendra Singh; Bansal, Ajay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

  20. Hybrid complexity modelling of changes to estuary morphology, hydrodynamics and tidal surge water levels at 10 to 200 year timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, J.; Burningham, H.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme coastal flooding is expected to increase with climate change, especially in estuaries susceptible to tidal surges. Estuary hydrodynamics are well understood and models can predict spatial variation in tide and surge water levels with skill. However, estuary morphological change alters the pathway between sources of flood risk (tides, surges) and receptors (humans, assets, activities) in vulnerable areas. Our ability to predict morphological change at timescales relevant to climate change remains limited, and this hinders quantitative assessment of changing flood risk. Reductionist hydrodynamic and sediment transport models tend to perform poorly at longer timescales and estuary morphodynamics are increasingly modelled using more `synthesist' approaches to capture landform behaviour at 10 to 100+ year timescales. However, non-linear interaction between tides and morphology means that it is useful to retain hydrodynamic complexity to resolve feedbacks between morphological change and tide/surge propagation. This paper presents a new approach to estuary morphological evolution that combines 1D simulation of tidal hydrodynamics with parameterised 2D representation of intertidal sedimentation and erosion under the influence of fetch-limited waves (Estuary Spatial Landscape Evolution Model; ESTEEM). ESTEEM is used in combination with a 2D shallow water equation model (Telemac2D) to simulate changes in 100 to 200-year flood levels that include changes in morphology due to continuing natural sedimentary processes and realignment of flood defences to accommodate sea-level rise. Results for two UK estuaries indicate that hydrodynamics and surge levels change only slightly with present defences in place. Flood defence realignment results in step-changes to the morphology and significant effects on tide and surge water levels. Evolution of the altered morphology tends to counter the hydrodynamic impact, but is sensitive to wind climate, which strongly controls

  1. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, Tommy; Hed Myrberg, Ida; Omerov, Pernilla; Steineck, Gunnar; Nyberg, Ullakarin

    2016-01-01

    Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose. During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss. In total 666/915 (73%) participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766), but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84); sick-leave (OR = 2.81) or unemployment (OR = 1.64); psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64), or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96); suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54); with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48); and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22) found as protective. Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before

  2. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommy Nyberg

    Full Text Available Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose.During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9 and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss.In total 666/915 (73% participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766, but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84; sick-leave (OR = 2.81 or unemployment (OR = 1.64; psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64, or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96; suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54; with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48; and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22 found as protective.Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before

  3. Aggression, Sibling Antagonism, and Theory-of-Mind During the First Year of Siblinghood: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ju-Hyun; Volling, Brenda L.; Lane, Jonathan D.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2016-01-01

    A developmental cascade model was tested to examine longitudinal associations among firstborn children’s aggression, Theory-of-Mind, and antagonism toward their younger sibling during the first year of siblinghood. Aggression and Theory-of-Mind were assessed before the birth of a sibling, and 4 and 12 months after the birth, and antagonism was examined at 4 and 12 months in a sample of 208 firstborn children (initial M age = 30 months, 56% girls) from primarily European American, middle- class families. Firstborns’ aggression consistently predicted high sibling antagonism both directly and through poorer Theory-of-Mind. Results highlight the importance of examining longitudinal influences across behavioral, social-cognitive, and relational factors that are closely intertwined even from the early years of life. PMID:27096923

  4. A directional Secular Variation Curve for Greece for the last 4500 years: Comparison with regional and global geomagnetic field models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marco, E.; Tema, E.; Lanos, P.; Kondopoulou, D.

    2009-12-01

    A total of 64 Greek archaeomagnetic directional data have been used for the establishment of the variation of the Earth’s magnetic field in Greece over the past 4500 years. Most of the data come from archaeological material but some data from Santorini lava flows are also included. The data ages range from Minoan times (~2500 BC) up to the last century with a gap around 10th to 6th century BC. All data have been relocated to Athens (37.97° N, 23.72° E) using the virtual geomagnetic pole method. Data coming from direct measurements available in Greece for the last four centuries have been also added. The secular variation (SV) curves for declination and inclination have been obtained using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. For comparison, the dataset has been also analysed using the bi-variate moving average window technique with 150 years time window shifted by 75 years. The obtained smoothed curves accompanied by a 95 % confidence envelope are compared with archaeomagnetic data from Mediterranean area and with SV curves from nearby countries. The Greek curves have also been compared with the predictions of the SCHA.DIF.3K regional and the CALS7K and ARCH3K global geomagnetic field models. Despite the differences recognised between these models, the Greek archaeomagnetic SV curve is in reasonably good agreement with their basic trends. The proposed directional SV curve can contribute, together with the intensity SV curve previously published for Greece, to the reliable archaeomagnetic dating of Greek artefacts based on the full description of the Earth’s magnetic field (declination, inclination, intensity). It is clear that the continuous update of the dataset with new results from well-dated archaeological material will increase the precision of the SV curve, especially for the time periods poorly covered by data.

  5. Repeatability of stance phase kinematics from a multi-segment foot model in people aged 50 years and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, John B; Mackintosh, Shylie; Jones, Sara; Thewlis, Dominic

    2013-06-01

    Confidence in 3D multi-segment foot models has been limited by a lack of repeatability data, particularly in older populations that may display unique functional foot characteristics. This study aimed to determine the intra and inter-observer repeatability of stance phase kinematic data from a multi-segment foot model described by Leardini et al. [2] in people aged 50 years or older. Twenty healthy adults participated (mean age 65.4 years SD 8.4). A repeated measures study design was used with data collected from four testing sessions on two days from two observers. Intra (within-day and between-day) and inter-observer coefficient of multiple correlations revealed moderate to excellent similarity of stance phase joint range of motion (0.621-0.975). Relative to the joint range of motion (ROM), mean differences (MD) between sessions were highest for the within-day comparison for all planar ROM at the metatarsus-midfoot articulation (sagittal plane ROM 5.2° vs. 3.9°, MD 3.1°; coronal plane ROM 3.9 vs. 3.1°, MD 2.3°; transverse plane ROM 6.8° vs. 5.16°, MD 3.5°). Consequently, data from the metatarsus-midfoot articulation in the Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli (IOR) foot model in adults aged over 50 years needs to be considered with respect to the findings of this study. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Day of the year-based prediction of horizontal global solar radiation by a neural network auto-regressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gani, Abdullah; Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Khorasanizadeh, Hossein; Seyed Danesh, Amir; Piri, Jamshid; Ismail, Zuraini; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-08-01

    The availability of accurate solar radiation data is essential for designing as well as simulating the solar energy systems. In this study, by employing the long-term daily measured solar data, a neural network auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NN-ARX) is applied to predict daily horizontal global solar radiation using day of the year as the sole input. The prime aim is to provide a convenient and precise way for rapid daily global solar radiation prediction, for the stations and their immediate surroundings with such an observation, without utilizing any meteorological-based inputs. To fulfill this, seven Iranian cities with different geographical locations and solar radiation characteristics are considered as case studies. The performance of NN-ARX is compared against the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results prove that day of the year-based prediction of daily global solar radiation by both NN-ARX and ANFIS models would be highly feasible owing to the accurate predictions attained. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis indicates the superiority of NN-ARX over ANFIS. In fact, the NN-ARX model represents high potential to follow the measured data favorably for all cities. For the considered cities, the attained statistical indicators of mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination for the NN-ARX models are in the ranges of 0.44-0.61 kWh/m2, 0.50-0.71 kWh/m2, and 0.78-0.91, respectively.

  7. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  8. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  9. Peak-power estimation equations in 12- to 16-year old children: comparing linear with allometric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Michael J; Hankey, Joanne; Nevill, Alan M

    2013-08-01

    This study examined the efficacy of peak-power estimation equations in children using force platform data and determined whether allometric modeling offers a sounder alternative to estimating peak power in pediatric samples. Ninety one boys and girls aged 12-16 years performed 3 countermovement jumps (CMJ) on a force platform. Estimated peak power (PP(est)) was determined using the Harman et al., Sayers SJ, Sayers CMJ, and Canavan and Vescovi equations. All 4 equations were associated with actual peak power (r = 0.893-0.909, all p equations (p allometric model using CMJ height, body mass, and age was then developed with this sample, which predicted 88.8% of the variance in PP(actual) (p equations were cross-validated using the one-third split sample (n = 31), evidencing a significant positive relationship (r = .910, p = .001) and no significant difference (p = .151) between PP(actual) and PP(est) using this equation. The allometric and linear models determined from this study provide accurate models to estimate peak power in children.

  10. Collaborative Care model in mental health. Scope and experiences after three years of activity in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamil-Salcedo, Valerio; Vargas-Terrez, Blanca E; Díaz-Anzaldúa, Adriana

    2017-05-01

    Aim The aim of this study was to evaluate the experience of the Collaborative Care model with general practitioners (GPs) for diagnosis and treatment of depression and anxiety disorders in primary care centers (PCC). For many years, different ways to address mental health problems in primary care settings have been evaluated. However, there is still debate over how to treat psychiatric conditions in such a context. A cross-sectional design was used. The study was conducted in two consecutive studies in six PCC that serve marginalized population in Mexico City. In the first study, cases were interviewed, diagnosed, and treated by a psychiatrist. In the second study, Collaborative Care model was used and GPs were trained; psychiatrists diagnosed and treated patients but GPs discussed the symptoms and treatment of the patients with the psychiatrist. Findings First study: 18 patients with depressive and/or anxiety disorders were interviewed; these cases were not discussed between the GPs and the psychiatrist. Second study: psychiatrists and GPs conducted joint interviews and cases were discussed. From the 399 evaluated individuals, 38.94% were diagnosed with a depressive disorder. After the Collaborative Care model was applied, GPs were more aware about mental health problems and they were more interested in the identification of these conditions in PCC. Replication studies will help confirm the effectiveness of this model.

  11. Finite element analysis of a bone healing model: 1-year follow-up after internal fixation surgery for femoral fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang-Jun, Zhou; Min, Zhao; Ya-Bo, Yan; Wei, Lei; Ren-Fa, Lv; Zhi-Yu, Zhu; Rong-Jian, Chen; Wei-Tao, Yu; Cheng-Fei, Du

    2014-03-01

    Finite element analysis was used to compare preoperative and postoperative stress distribution of a bone healing model of femur fracture, to identify whether broken ends of fractured bone would break or not after fixation dislodgement one year after intramedullary nailing. Method s: Using fast, personalized imaging, bone healing models of femur fracture were constructed based on data from multi-slice spiral computed tomography using Mimics, Geomagic Studio, and Abaqus software packages. The intramedullary pin was removed by Boolean operations before fixation was dislodged. Loads were applied on each model to simulate a person standing on one leg. The von Mises stress distribution, maximum stress, and its location was observed. Results : According to 10 kinds of display groups based on material assignment, the nodes of maximum and minimum von Mises stress were the same before and after dislodgement, and all nodes of maximum von Mises stress were outside the fracture line. The maximum von Mises stress node was situated at the bottom quarter of the femur. The von Mises stress distribution was identical before and after surgery. Conclusion : Fast, personalized model establishment can simulate fixation dislodgement before operation, and personalized finite element analysis was performed to successfully predict whether nail dislodgement would disrupt femur fracture or not.

  12. Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

    2012-04-01

    Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata

  13. 40 CFR 85.1403 - Particulate standard for pre-1994 model year urban buses effective at time of engine rebuild or...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) CONTROL OF AIR POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES Urban Bus Rebuild Requirements § 85.1403 Particulate standard for pre-1994 model year urban buses effective at time of engine rebuild or engine replacement. (a... model year urban buses effective at time of engine rebuild or engine replacement. 85.1403 Section 85...

  14. 40 CFR 86.099-10 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... manufacturer's engineering design evaluation using good engineering practice (a statement of which is required... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.099-10 Section 86.099-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.099-10 Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty...

  15. 40 CFR 86.008-10 - Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... manufacturer's engineering design evaluation using good engineering practice (a statement of which is required... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.008-10 Section 86.008-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.008-10 Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty...

  16. 40 CFR 86.004-11 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year diesel heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... This section applies to 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs. (a)(1) Exhaust emissions from new 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs shall not exceed the following: (i)(A) Oxides of Nitrogen plus Non... diesel HDE families in any or all of the emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the restrictions...

  17. 40 CFR 86.007-11 - Emission standards and supplemental requirements for 2007 and later model year diesel heavy-duty...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... later model year diesel HDEs. Section 86.007-11 includes text that specifies requirements that differ... see § 86.004-11.”. (a)(1) Exhaust emissions from new 2007 and later model year diesel HDEs shall not... any or all of the NOX and NOX plus NMHC emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the restrictions...

  18. Identifying the Optimal Offshore Areas for Wave Energy Converter Deployments in Taiwanese Waters Based on 12-Year Model Hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Ju Shih

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A 12-year sea-state hindcast for Taiwanese waters, covering the period from 2005 to 2016, was conducted using a fully coupled tide-surge-wave model. The hindcasts of significant wave height and peak period were employed to estimate the wave power resources in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Numerical simulations based on unstructured grids were converted to structured grids with a resolution of 25 × 25 km. The spatial distribution maps of offshore annual mean wave power were created for each year and for the 12-year period. Waters with higher wave power density were observed off the northern, northeastern, southeastern (south of Green Island and southeast of Lanyu and southern coasts of Taiwan. Five energetic sea areas with spatial average annual total wave energy density of 60–90 MWh/m were selected for further analysis. The 25 × 25 km square grids were then downscaled to resolutions of 5 × 5 km, and five 5 × 5 km optimal areas were identified for wave energy converter deployments. The spatial average annual total wave energy yields at the five optimal areas (S1–(S5 were estimated to be 64.3, 84.1, 84.5, 111.0 and 99.3 MWh/m, respectively. The prevailing wave directions for these five areas lie between east and northeast.

  19. Global and diffuse solar irradiance modelling over north-western Europe using MAR regional climate model : validation and construction of a 30-year climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumet, Julien; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Erpicum, Michel

    2015-04-01

    Solar irradiance modelling is crucial for solar resource management, photovoltaic production forecasting and for a better integration of solar energy in the electrical grid network. For those reasons, an adapted version of the Modèle Atmospheric Regional (MAR) is being developed at the Laboratory of Climatology of the University of Liège in order to provide high quality modelling of solar radiation, wind and temperature over north-western Europe. In this new model version, the radiation scheme has been calibrated using solar irradiance in-situ measurements and CORINE Land Cover data have been assimilated in order to improve the modelling of 10 m wind speed and near-surface temperature. In this study, MAR is forced at its boundary by ERA-40 reanalysis and its horizontal resolution is 10 kilometres. Diffuse radiation is estimated using global radiation from MAR outputs and a calibrated version of Ruiz-Arias et al., (2010) sigmoid model. This study proposes to evaluate the method performance for global and diffuse radiation modelling at both the hourly and daily time scale using data from the European Solar Radiation Atlas database for the weather stations of Uccle (Belgium) and Braunschweig (Germany). After that, a 30-year climatology of global and diffuse irradiance for the 1981-2010 period over western Europe is built. The created data set is then analysed in order to highlight possible regional or seasonal trends. The validity of the results is then evaluated after comparison with trends found in in-situ data or from different studies from the literature.

  20. Mental models and language registers in the psychoanalysis of psychosis: an overview of a thirteen-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Riccardo

    2003-08-01

    The author suggests that the use of mental models and language registers may help an analysis to proceed, especially in psychosis, when the patient has not yet developed a mental space that will allow him/her the functions of knowledge and containment of emotions. Models, according to Bion, are a primitive approach to abstraction and a manifestation of the analyst's reverie that enables him/her to transform sense data into alpha-elements. Ferrari, in a further development of Bion's theories, hypothesises a relationship between the transference and the internal level of body-mind communication, and proposes the use of language registers to sustain the psychoanalytic process. The author presents several clinical examples from a thirteen-year, four-session-a-week analysis of a psychotic analysand who was initially confused, paranoid and altogether unable to bring self-reflective thought to bear on her overwhelming emotions and had, by the end of the analysis, completely recovered from her psychotic symptoms. The clinical material shows how the technical tools of mental models and language registers helped in the construction of a mental space and spatio-temporal parameters, permitting the patient to tolerate overwhelming concrete emotions and finally to recognise and work through the emotions of an intense transference.

  1. Occurrence of blowing snow events at an alpine site over a 10-year period: Observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim Bouvet, F.; Martin, E.; Durand, Y.; Bellot, H.; Bel, C.; Puglièse, P.

    2013-05-01

    Blowing snow events control the evolution of the snow pack in mountainous areas and cause inhomogeneous snow distribution. The goal of this study is to identify the main features of blowing snow events at an alpine site and assess the ability of the detailed snowpack model Crocus to reproduce the occurrence of these events in a 1D configuration. We created a database of blowing snow events observed over 10 years at our experimental site. Occurrences of blowing snow events were divided into cases with and without concurrent falling snow. Overall, snow transport is observed during 10.5% of the time in winter and occurs with concurrent falling snow 37.3% of the time. Wind speed and snow age control the frequency of occurrence. Model results illustrate the necessity of taking the wind-dependence of falling snow grain characteristics into account to simulate periods of snow transport and mass fluxes satisfactorily during those periods. The high rate of false alarms produced by the model is investigated in detail for winter 2010/2011 using measurements from snow particle counters.

  2. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Research; Gustafsson, Bo [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden); Omstedt, Anders [SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times.

  3. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian; Omstedt, Anders

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times

  4. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2017-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a ‘Starkrimson’ × ‘Granny Smith’ cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility

  5. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Falk

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP. This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m−1 and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA. The

  6. Geo-Needs: Investigating Models for Improved Access to Geosciences at Two-Year and Minority-Serving Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Her, X.; Turner, S. P.; LaDue, N.; Bentley, A. P.; Petcovic, H. L.; Mogk, D. W.; Cartwright, T.

    2015-12-01

    Geosciences are an important field of study for the future of energy, water, climate resilience, and infrastructure in our country. Geoscience related job growth is expected to steeply climb in the United States, however many of these positions will be left unfilled. One untapped population of Americans is ethnic minorities, who have historically been underrepresented in the geosciences. In 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that black and Hispanics only make 8.1% of geoscience related jobs, while making up nearly 30% of Americans. This pattern of underrepresentation has been attributed to 1) minority serving institutions lacking geoscience programs, 2) low interest in the outdoors due to a lack of opportunity, and 3) negative and low prestigious perceptions of geoscientists. Our project focuses specifically on the first barrier. Preliminary research suggests that only 2.5% of institutions with geoscience programs (n= 609) are also minority serving. The goals of the Geo-Needs project are to identify obstacles to and opportunities for better use of existing educational resources in two-year and minority-serving institutions, and to explore "ideal" models of resources, partnerships, and other support for geoscience faculty and students in these institutions. Four focus group meetings were held in August 2015 bringing administrators, instructors, resource providers, and education researchers together to discuss and develop these models. Activities at the meetings included small and whole group prompted discussion, guest speakers, gallery walks, and individual reflection. Content from the focus group meetings is available at the project's website: http://serc.carleton.edu/geoneeds/index.html. Findings from the meetings can be used to inform future efforts aimed toward broadening access to the geosciences at two-year and minority-serving institutions.

  7. Using the common sense model of illness perceptions to examine osteoarthritis change: a 6-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaptein, Ad A; Bijsterbosch, Jessica; Scharloo, Margreet; Hampson, Sarah E; Kroon, Herman M; Kloppenburg, Margreet

    2010-01-01

    To examine the association between changes in common sense models and changes in functional status over a 6-year follow-up in patients with osteoarthritis. At baseline and follow-up, osteoarthritis outpatients (N = 241) recruited from a university medical center completed the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised (IPQ-R), the Australian/Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index, and the Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Osteoarthritis Index. Also, their physician-assessed pain intensity, and biomedical, and clinical measures of medical severity of osteoarthritis were recorded. Functional disability, pain intensity. Over 6 years, functional disability and pain intensity increased. The IPQ-R dimensions of timeline, personal control, and illness coherence became more negative, and emotional representations became less negative (i.e., more accepting). Patients identified as sharing a similar profile of negative changes on the IPQ-R had significantly worse functioning on 2 of 3 outcomes, independent of objectively measured osteoarthritis severity. Changes in illness perceptions were associated with changes in outcomes. Interventions to prevent increasingly negative patterns of illness perceptions over time, with an emphasis on strengthening control cognitions, may benefit functional status outcomes in patients with osteoarthritis.

  8. Overview of the hydraulic characteristics of the ITER Central Solenoid Model Coil conductors after 15 years of test campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brighenti, A.; Bonifetto, R.; Isono, T.; Kawano, K.; Russo, G.; Savoldi, L.; Zanino, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ITER Central Solenoid Model Coil (CSMC) is a superconducting magnet, layer-wound two-in-hand using Nb3Sn cable-in-conduit conductors (CICCs) with the central channel typical of ITER magnets, cooled with supercritical He (SHe) at ∼4.5 K and 0.5 MPa, operating for approximately 15 years at the National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology in Naka, Japan. The aim of this work is to give an overview of the issues related to the hydraulic performance of the three different CICCs used in the CSMC based on the extensive experimental database put together during the past 15 years. The measured hydraulic characteristics are compared for the different test campaigns and compared also to those coming from the tests of short conductor samples when available. It is shown that the hydraulic performance of the CSMC conductors did not change significantly in the sequence of test campaigns with more than 50 cycles up to 46 kA and 8 cooldown/warmup cycles from 300 K to 4.5 K. The capability of the correlations typically used to predict the friction factor of the SHe for the design and analysis of ITER-like CICCs is also shown.

  9. Results from a model of course-based undergraduate research in the first- and second-year chemistry curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Gabriela

    2014-03-01

    The Center for Authentic Science Practice in Education (CASPiE) is a project funded by the URC program of the NSF Chemistry Division. The purpose of CASPiE was to provide students in first and second year laboratory courses with authentic research experiences as a gateway to more traditional forms of undergraduate research. Each research experience is a 6- to 8-week laboratory project based on and contributing to the research work of the experiment's author through data or preparation of samples. The CASPiE program has resulted in a model for engaging students in undergraduate research early in their college careers. To date, CASPiE has provided that experience to over 6000 students at 17 different institutions. Evaluation data collected has included student surveys, interviews and longitudinal analysis of performance. We have found that students' perceptions of their understanding of the material and the discipline increase over the course of the semester, whereas they are seen to decrease in the control courses. Students demonstrate a greater ability to explain the meaning and purpose of their experimental procedures and results and provide extensions to the experimental design, compared not only to control courses but also compared to inquiry-based courses. Longitudinal analysis of grades indicates a possible benefit to performance in courses related to the discipline two and three years later. A similar implementation in biology courses has demonstrated an increase in critical thinking scores. Work supported by the National Science Foundation, Division of Chemistry.

  10. Asian dust transport during the springtime of year 2001 and 2002 with a nested version of dust transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uno, I.; Satake, S.; Hara, Y.; Takemura, T.; Wang, Z.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2002-12-01

    Number of yellow sand (Kosa) observation has been surprisingly increasing in Japan and Korea since 2000. Especially extremely high PM10 concentration (exceeding 0.5mg/m3) was observed in Japan several times in 2002, so we have an urgent scientific and political need to forecast/reproduce the detailed dust emission, transport and deposition processes. Intensive modeling studies have already been conducted to examine transport of Sahara dust and its impact on global radiation budget. One of the important differences between the Sahara desert and the Asian desert (mainly Gobi Desert and Takla Makan Desert) is the elevation of the dust source. The averaged elevation of Gobi Desert is approximately 1500 to 2500 m. These deserts are surrounded by high mountains. Furthermore advance of the recent manmade desertification made complicated land use patches for the arid region in Inner Mongolia. Therefore the development of a high horizontal resolution dust model is highly required. In this study, we will report a newly developed nested version of the dust transport model (as a part of Chemical weather FORecasting System; CFORS) in order to have a better understanding of Asian springtime heady dust episode. Here, CFORS is a multi-tracer, on-line, system built within the RAMS mesoscale meteorological model. A unique feature of nested CFORS is that multiple tracers are run on-line in RAMS under the two-way nesting, so that all the fine-scale on-line meteorological information such as 3-D winds, boundary-layer turbulence, surface fluxes and precipitation amount are directly used by the dust emission and transport at every time step. As a result, nested-CFORS produces with high time resolution 3-dimensional fields of dust distributions and major meteorological parameters under the nesting capability of RAMS. In this work, the dust transport model simulation with the nested-CFORS was conducted between March and April of the years 2001 and 2002, respectively. The sensititivy

  11. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-08-01

    Computational phantoms are commonly used in internal radiation dosimetry to assess the amount and distribution pattern of energy deposited in various parts of the human body from different internal radiation sources. Radiation dose assessments are commonly performed on predetermined reference computational phantoms while the argument for individualized patient-specific radiation dosimetry exists. This study aims to evaluate the influence of body habitus on internal dosimetry and to quantify the uncertainties in dose estimation correlated with the use of fixed reference models. The 5-year-old IT’IS male phantom was modified to match target anthropometric parameters, including body weight, body height and sitting height/stature ratio (SSR), determined from reference databases, thus enabling the creation of 125 5-year-old habitus-dependent male phantoms with 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile body morphometries. We evaluated the absorbed fractions and the mean absorbed dose to the target region per unit cumulative activity in the source region (S-values) of F-18 in 46 source regions for the generated 125 anthropomorphic 5-year-old hybrid male phantoms using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body

  12. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  13. A review of the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQL) model for dental hygiene: Eighteen years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadbury-Amyot, C C; Austin, K S; Simmer-Beck, M

    2017-05-05

    The purpose of this paper is to review available evidence to determine the impact of the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQL) Model for Dental Hygiene on education, research, and practice. A search was conducted in PubMed using the search terms oral health-related quality of life, OHRQL, and dental hygiene and limited to publications between 1998 and 2016. Google Scholar was also used to identify citations for the two original OHRQL model papers to capture the literature widely read by practicing dental hygienists but not indexed in PubMed. A total of 40 publications met the predetermined search strategy. Full publications were obtained and reviewed to determine how this research is being used in education, research, and practice. The OHRQL is being utilized to a very limited degree in education, research, and practice. The literature shows how the OHRQL is actively being used in the school where the model originated in addition to a dental hygiene programme in Japan. Studies have been conducted on a variety of research instruments, including the OHRQL, designed to capture OHRQL outcomes. Japanese researchers have used the OHRQL in studies designed to determine the impact of oral healthcare delivery on patients' oral health-related quality of life. Eighteen years of the literature confirms that the OHRQL is being used minimally in education, research, and practice. Greater emphasis is needed around the collection and assessment of oral health-related quality of life measures for providing patient-centred care. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

    2017-04-01

    We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall

  15. Implications of CISNET modeling on number needed to screen and mortality reduction with digital mammography in women 40-49 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrick, R Edward; Helvie, Mark A; Hardesty, Lara A

    2014-12-01

    In this article, we evaluate the implications of recent Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) modeling of benefits and harms of screening to women 40-49 years old using annual digital mammography. We show that adding annual digital mammography of women 40-49 years old to biennial screening of women 50-74 years old increases lives saved by 27% and life-years gained by 47%. Annual digital mammography in women 40-49 years old saves 42% more lives and life-years than biennial digital mammography. The number needed to screen to save one life (NNS) with annual digital mammography in women 40-49 years old is 588.

  16. [The changing profile of caregivers of persons aged 65 years and over with disabilities within a persisting family care model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zueras, Pilar; Spijker, Jeroen; Blanes, Amand

    The increasing participation of women in the workforce may make it difficult to sustain the current model of elderly care. The aim of this article was to determine the changing sociodemographic profile of informal elderly caregivers with disabilities, the interaction between employment and care, and the view of the public on the responsibility of that care. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from four national surveys were used: the disability surveys held in 1999 (N=3,936) and 2008 (N=5,257), the 2011-12 National Health Survey (N=439), and the Family and Gender survey of 2012 (N=1,359). They were analysed using contingency tables based on gender and age. Half of the informal caregivers were women aged 45 to 64 years. Between 1999 and 2011-12 they became more concentrated in the 55-64 age-bracket, among whom participation in the workforce doubled from 20% to 40%. Increased care for men was associated with unemployment. Care work had a negative impact on working life, with greater impact among women and those who cared for elderly people with severe disabilities. Less likely to consider that elderly care provision should rest on family are 45-54 year-old economically active women (only 42%) or those who are more educated (40%), compared to 60% of economically inactive women and 55% of less educated women. Economically active and educated women are less inclined to family-based care, but assume it independently of their workforce participation, whereas males do so according to their availability. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2014-10-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is -0.24 mm day-1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the underestimation of

  18. The Vermont model for rural HIV care delivery: eleven years of outcome data comparing urban and rural clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Christopher; Kutzko, Deborah; Alston, W Kemper; Ramundo, Mary; Polish, Louis; Osler, Turner

    2010-01-01

    Provision of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in rural areas has encountered unique barriers. To compare medical outcomes of care provided at 3 HIV specialty clinics in rural Vermont with that provided at an urban HIV specialty clinic. This was a retrospective cohort study. Over an 11-year period 363 new patients received care, including 223 in the urban clinic and 140 in the rural clinics. Patients in the 2 cohorts were demographically similar and had similar initial CD4 counts and viral loads. There was no difference between the urban and rural clinic patients receiving Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis (83.5% vs 86%, P= .38) or antiretroviral therapy (96.8% vs 97.5%, P= .79). Both rural and urban cohorts had similar decreases in median viral load from 1996 to 2006 (3,876 copies/mL to vs 8,331 copies/mL to vs 16%-71.4%, P= .11). Rural and urban cohorts had similar increases in median CD4 counts (275/mm(3)-350/mm(3) vs 182 cells/mm(3)-379/mm(3)). A repeated measures regression analysis showed that neither fall in viral load (P= .91) nor rise in CD4 count (P= .64) were associated with urban versus rural site of care. Survival times, using a Cox proportional hazards model, were similar for urban and rural patients (hazard ratio for urban = 0.80 [95% CI, 0.39-1.61; P= .53]). This urban outreach model provides similar quality of care to persons receiving care in rural areas of Vermont as compared to those receiving care in the urban center.

  19. Modeling stability in the somatotype of children and youngsters from 10 to 16 years of the Madeira growth study (Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martine Thomis

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This investigation aims at the study of somatotype´s (tri-dimensional structure stability in children and youngsters from Madeira (Portugal. Based on a stratified and proportional sample and from a mixed-longitudinal study, we obtained information from 309 subjects (157 boys, 152 girls that participed in ‘Madeira Growth Study’. Somatotype was estimated with the Heath-Carter method, and statistical analysis was based on quasi-simplex models to optimize the multivariate data structure. Mplus was used in all calculations. Results from fitting models to the multidimensional nature of the data have shown that somatotype is strongly stable over the age range of 10 to 16 years. This characteristic highlights its reduced capability to change, and thus inform us about its prediction. RESUMO Este estudo pretende investigar a estabilidade do somatótipo, enquanto entidade tridimensional, de crianças e jovens Madeirenses (Portugal. Com base numa amostra estratificada proporcional, e a partir de um delineamento longitudinal-misto, foi obtida informação de 309 sujeitos dos dois sexos (157 rapazes e 152 moças que participaram no ‘Estudo de Crescimento da Madeira’. O somatótipo foi estimado com base no procedimento de Heath-Carter, e a análise estatística recorreu à modelação quasi-simplex para solucionar a estrutura multivariada dos dados. Os cálculos foram efectuados no software Mplus. Na sua essência, os resultados do ajustamento dos diferentes modelos à estrutura do somatótipo sugerem a sua forte estabilidade no intervalo etário dos 10 aos 16 anos. Esta característica salienta a sua reduzida alteração, e consequente previsibilidade desenvolvimentalista.

  20. In-use NOx emissions from model year 2010 and 2011 heavy-duty diesel engines equipped with aftertreatment devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Chandan; Collins, John F; Herner, Jorn D; Sax, Todd; Krishnamurthy, Mohan; Sobieralski, Wayne; Burntizki, Mark; Chernich, Don

    2013-07-16

    The California Air Resources Board (ARB) undertook this study to characterize the in-use emissions of model year (MY) 2010 or newer diesel engines. Emissions from four trucks: one equipped with an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and three equipped with EGR and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) device were measured on two different routes with three different payloads using a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) in the Sacramento area. Results indicated that brake-specific NOx emissions for the truck equipped only with an EGR were independent of the driving conditions. Results also showed that for typical highway driving conditions, the SCR technology is proving to be effective in controlling NOx emissions. However, under operations where the SCR's do not reach minimum operating temperature, like cold starts and some low load/slow speed driving conditions, NOx emissions are still elevated. The study indicated that strategies used to maintain exhaust temperature above a certain threshold, which are used in some of the newer SCRs, have the potential to control NOx emissions during certain low-load/slow speed driving conditions.

  1. The deaf strong hospital program: a model of diversity and inclusion training for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thew, Denise; Smith, Scott R; Chang, Christopher; Starr, Matt

    2012-11-01

    Recent research indicates that the cultural competence training students receive during medical school might not adequately address the issues that arise when caring for patients of different cultures. Because of their unique communication, linguistic, and cultural issues, incorporating deaf people who use sign language into cultural competence education at medical schools might help to bridge this gap in cross-cultural education. The Deaf Strong Hospital (DSH) program at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, started in 1998, exposes first-year medical students to the issues that are relevant to providing effective patient care and to establishing multicultural sensitivity early in their medical education. Because medical students better acquire cross-cultural competence through hands-on experience rather than through lectures, the DSH program, which includes a role-reversal exercise in which medical students play the role of the patients, provides such a model for other medical schools and health care training centers to use in teaching future health care providers how to address the relevant cultural, linguistic, and communication needs of both their deaf patients and their non-English-speaking patients. This article describes the DSH program curriculum, shares findings from both medical students' short-term and long-term postprogram evaluations, and provides a framework for the implementation of a broader cultural and linguistic sensitivity training program specific to working with and improving the quality of health care among deaf people.

  2. Promoting Metacognition in First Year Anatomy Laboratories Using Plasticine Modeling and Drawing Activities: A Pilot Study of the "Blank Page" Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naug, Helen L.; Colson, Natalie J.; Donner, Daniel G.

    2011-01-01

    Many first year students of anatomy and physiology courses demonstrate an inability to self-regulate their learning. To help students increase their awareness of their own learning in a first year undergraduate anatomy course, we piloted an exercise that incorporated the processes of (1) active learning: drawing and plasticine modeling and (2)…

  3. Behavioural Outcomes of Four-Year-Old Children Prenatally Exposed to Methadone or Buprenorphine: A Test of Three Risk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konijnenberg, Carolien; Lund, Ingunn Olea; Melinder, Annika

    2015-01-01

    It is still under debate whether the reported effects of opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) on child behaviour are a direct effect of prenatal exposure, or whether other factors are involved. This prospective cohort study investigated three models: the teratogenic risk model, the maternal risk model, and a combined risk model in a group of 35…

  4. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D.; Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T.; Husted, B.; Magnusson, T.; Joerud, F.

    2013-05-01

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  5. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  6. Spatial and temporal modelling of fluvial aggradation in the Hasli Valley (Swiss Alps) during the last 1300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Jaime; Schulte, Lothar; Carvalho, Filipe

    2016-04-01

    process. Results suggest a longitudinal decrease of sedimentation rates from the apex towards the distal section of the delta plain. Differences in rates are also found within each cross-section (e.g. channel-levée: higher rates; interdistributary depression: lower rates), suggesting an asymmetric growth of the floodplain. A GIS paleosurfaces model was executed to calculate the fluvial sediment storage, which was subdivided in 300-year time slices, thus contributing to identify temporal trends in floodplain aggradation. The results were analyzed with regard to external drivers that control the sedimentation processes in the Haslital delta, such as climate and/or anthropogenic factors (land-use changes, hydraulic management), as well as the influence of the internal system settings. The facies-based approach provides an explanation of both the spatial and temporal components of delta plain formation; and produces valid information for local flood risk management, concerning the problem of alpine floodplains aggradation.

  7. Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

    2011-12-01

    The full Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled model Elmer/Ice is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Elmer/Ice employs the finite element method to solve the full Stokes equations, the temperature evolution equation and the evolution equation of the free surface. The general framework of this modeling effort is a contribution to the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) assessment project, a community-organized effort to estimate the likely range of ice sheet contributions to sea level rise over the next few hundred years (http://tinyurl.com/srise-lanl, http://tinyurl.com/srise-umt). The present geometry (surface and basal topographies) is derived from data where the basal topography was created with the preservation of the troughs at the Jakobshavn Ice Stream, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glaciers. A mesh of the computational domain is created using an initial footprint which contains elements of 5 km horizontal resolution and to limit the number elements on the footprint while maximizing the spatial resolution, an anisotropic mesh adaptation scheme is employed based on the Hessian matrix of the observed surface velocities. The adaptation is carried out with the tool YAMS and the final footprint is vertically extruded to form a 3D mesh of 320880 elements with 17 equidistant, terrain-following layers. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations employs direct solvers with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is given by data and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. Results for the SeaRISE 2011 sensitivity experiments are presented so that six different experiments have been conducted, grouped in two sets. The Set C (three experiments) applies a change to

  8. Changes of net primary productivity in China during recent 11 years detected using an ecological model driven by MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yibo; Ju, Weimin; He, Honglin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Yuandong

    2013-03-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Accurately mapping the spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China is crucial for global carbon cycling study. In this study the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was employed to study the changes of NPP in China's ecosystems for the period from 2000 to 2010. The BEPS model was first validated using gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at typical flux sites and forest NPP measured at different regions. Then it was driven with leaf area index (LAI) inversed from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products and meteorological data interpolated from observations at 753 national basic meteorological stations to simulate NPP at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 500 m from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Validations show that BEPS is able to capture the seasonal variations of tower-based GPP and the spatial variability of forest NPP in different regions of China. Estimated national total of annual NPP varied from 2.63 to 2.84Pg C·yr-1, averaging 2.74 Pg C·yr-1 during the study period. Simulated terrestrial NPP shows spatial patterns decreasing from the east to the west and from the south to the north, in association with land cover types and climate. South-west China makes the largest contribution to the national total of NPP while NPP in the North-west account for only 3.97% of the national total. During the recent 11 years, the temporal changes of NPP were heterogamous. NPP increased in 63.8% of China's landmass, mainly in areas north of the Yangtze River and decreased in most areas of southern China, owing to the low temperature freezing in early 2008 and the severe drought in late 2009.

  9. 4.5 Years of Seafloor Uplift in Middle Valley, Juan de Fuca Ridge: Modeling a Source Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inderbitzen, K. E.; Becker, K.; Davis, E. E.

    2012-12-01

    Currently, in-situ seafloor and basement pressures are continuously monitored and recorded by an ODP subseafloor hydrogeological observatory (CORK) located in Middle Valley, Juan de Fuca Ridge. Hole 857D was drilled in 1991 in thickly sedimented crust to a depth of 936 mbsf and instrumented with an original CORK that was replaced in 1996. A small hydrothermal field consisting of two isolated chimneys and several diffuse flow sites is located ~800 meters northeast of Hole 857D and has been visited periodically by submersible/ROV since 1999. Declining seafloor pressure recorded at 857D showed apparent seafloor uplift over a 4.5 year period, and this is supported by differences in wellhead depths measured by the submersible Alvin. The rate of uplift is ~0.6 m/yr over its duration (2005-2010) and has reduced mean seafloor pressure by ~28 kPa, equivalent to nearly 3 meters of head. This uplift rate is four times the re-inflation rate observed at Axial Seamount following its 1998 eruption. Initially the uplift observed at 857D did not have any observed effect on local high-temperature hydrothermal venting. However operations during 2010 in Middle Valley revealed not only distinct changes at the hydrothermal field to the northeast, but also a shutdown of high-temperature venting to the north of 857D. A high-resolution pressure data logger was deployed at 857D in June 2010, providing a concurrent dataset for seafloor and basement pressures in addition to the downhole logger. We will present new results from Middle Valley including the latest downloaded data, and show results of numerical modeling that help constrain the potential source mechanism for physical uplift in this region.

  10. Fleet average NOx emission performance of 2004 model year light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations came into effect on January 1, 2004. The regulations introduced more stringent national emission standards for on-road vehicles and engines, and also required that companies submit reports containing information concerning the company's fleets. This report presented a summary of the regulatory requirements relating to nitric oxide (NO x ) fleet average emissions for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles under the new regulations. The effectiveness of the Canadian fleet average NO x emission program at achieving environmental performance objectives was also evaluated. A summary of the fleet average NO x emission performance of individual companies was presented, as well as the overall Canadian fleet average of the 2004 model year based on data submitted by companies in their end of model year reports. A total of 21 companies submitted reports covering 2004 model year vehicles in 10 test groups, comprising 1,350,719 vehicles of the 2004 model year manufactured or imported for the purpose of sale in Canada. The average NO x value for the entire Canadian LDV/LDT fleet was 0.2016463 grams per mile. The average NO x values for the entire Canadian HLDT/MDPV fleet was 0.321976 grams per mile. It was concluded that the NO x values for both fleets were consistent with the environmental performance objectives of the regulations for the 2004 model year. 9 tabs

  11. Change Management Model for Implementing an Effective First-Year Experience Program in the Community College Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Joy C.

    2015-01-01

    This study provides evidence that systematic management of change can facilitate the implementation of first-year experience programming that leads to improved results in retention and student success for community college students. The study includes four major themes: (a) first-year experience, (b) change management, (c) change leadership, and…

  12. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  13. 40 CFR 1039.102 - What exhaust emission standards and phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... for any engine family in the 56-130 kW power category is 2.3 g/kW-hr for model years 2012 and 2013...-unit engine family in the 75-130 kW power category may be certified to meet the standards for PM, NMHC... the first four years of the Tier 4 standards for the applicable power category, as allowed in § 1039...

  14. Application of Cox and Parametric Survival Models to Assess Social Determinants of Health Affecting Three-Year Survival of Breast Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohseny, Maryam; Amanpour, Farzaneh; Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza; Jafari, Hossein; Moradi-Joo, Mohammad; Davoudi Monfared, Esmat

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer mortality in Iran. Social determinants of health are among the key factors affecting the pathogenesis of diseases. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the social determinants of breast cancer survival time with parametric and semi-parametric regression models. It was conducted on male and female patients diagnosed with breast cancer presenting to the Cancer Research Center of Shohada-E-Tajrish Hospital from 2006 to 2010. The Cox proportional hazard model and parametric models including the Weibull, log normal and log-logistic models were applied to determine the social determinants of survival time of breast cancer patients. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to assess the best fit. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA (version 11) software. This study was performed on 797 breast cancer patients, aged 25-93 years with a mean age of 54.7 (±11.9) years. In both semi-parametric and parametric models, the three-year survival was related to level of education and municipal district of residence (P<0.05). The AIC suggested that log normal distribution was the best fit for the three-year survival time of breast cancer patients. Social determinants of health such as level of education and municipal district of residence affect the survival of breast cancer cases. Future studies must focus on the effect of childhood social class on the survival times of cancers, which have hitherto only been paid limited attention.

  15. Comparing Mortality of Peritoneal and Hemodialysis Patients in the First 2 Years of Dialysis Therapy: A Marginal Structural Model Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukowsky, Lilia R.; Mehrotra, Rajnish; Kheifets, Leeka; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Nissenson, Allen R.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

    2013-01-01

    Background and objectives There are conflicting research results about the survival differences between hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, especially during the first 2 years of dialysis treatment. Given the challenges of conducting randomized trials, differential rates of modality switch and

  16. One-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisci, Emiliano; de Donato, Gianmarco; Fargion, Aaron; Ventoruzzo, Giorgio; Parlani, Gianbattista; Setacci, Carlo; Ercolini, Leonardo; Michelagnoli, Stefano

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to report the methodology and 1-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease (TAAD). Complex TAADs without a feasible conventional surgical repair were prospectively evaluated by vascular surgeons of the same public health service (National Health System) located in a huge area of 22,994 km 2 with 3.7 million inhabitants and 11 tertiary hospitals. Surgeons evaluated computed tomography scans and clinical details that were placed on a web platform (Google Drive; Google, Mountain View, Calif) and shared by all surgeons. Patients gave informed consent for the teleconsultation. The surgeon who submits a case discusses in detail his or her case and proposes a possible therapeutic strategy. The other surgeons suggest other solutions and options in terms of grafts, techniques, or access to be used. Computed tomography angiography, angiography, and clinical outcomes of cases are then presented at the following telemeetings, and a final agreement of the operative strategy is evaluated. Teleconsultation is performed using a web conference service (WebConference.com; Avaya Inc, Basking Ridge, NJ) every month. An inter-rater agreement statistic was calculated, and the κ value was interpreted according to Altman's criteria for computed tomography angiography measurements. The rate of participation was constant (mean number of surgeons, 11; range, 9-15). Twenty-four complex TAAD cases were discussed for planning and operation during the study period. The interobserver reliability recorded was moderate (κ = 0.41-0.60) to good (κ = 0.61-0.80) for measurements of proximal and distal sealing and very good (κ = 0.81-1) for detection of any target vessel angulation >60 degrees, significant calcification (circumferential), and thrombus presence (>50%). The concordance for planning and therapeutic strategy among all participants was complete in 16 cases. In

  17. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  18. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  19. Validation of risk prediction models for the development of HBV-related HCC: a retrospective multi-center 10-year follow-up cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yeon Seok; Jang, Byoung Kuk; Um, Soon Ho; Hwang, Jae Seok; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Kim, Sang Gyune; Lee, Kwan Sik; Kim, Seung Up; Kim, Young Seok; Lee, Jung Il

    2017-12-22

    Recently, modified REACH-B (mREACH-B) risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was proposed. We validated the accuracy of the mREACH-B model and compared its accuracy with those of other prediction models. Between 2006 and 2012, 1,241 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were recruited. All patients underwent transient elastography at enrollment. The median age of the study population (840 males, 401 females) was 49 years. The median PAGE-B, LSM-HCC, and mREACH-B values were 10, 10, and 8, respectively. Among patients without cirrhosis ( n = 940, 75.7%), the median REACH-B value was 9. During the follow-up period (median 77.4 months), 66 (5.3%) and 83 (6.7%) patients developed HCC and liver-related events (LRE), respectively. Higher liver stiffness (LS) independently predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.047) and LRE development (HR = 1.047) (all P HCC (AUC = 0.824 at 3-year and 0.750 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.782 at 3-year and 0.739 at 5-year) (all P HCC (AUC = 0.715-0.809 at 3-year and 0.719-0.742 at 5-year for HCC; AUC = 0.704-0.777 at 3-year and 0.721-0.735 at 5-year for LRE). Among patients without cirrhosis, mREACH-B predicted HCC (AUC = 0.803 vs. 0.654-0.816 at 3-year and 0.684 vs. 0.639-0.738 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.734 vs. 0.619-0.789 at 3-year and 0.674 vs. 0.626-0.729 at 5-year) similarly to PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC. mREACH-B appropriately predicted HCC and LRE development in patients with CHB and showed similar or superior accuracy to those of PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC.

  20. Repository seal materials performance for a SALT Repository Project 5-year code/model development plan: Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-06-01

    This document describes an integrated laboratory testing and model development effort for the seal system for a high-level nuclear waste repository in salt. The testing and modeling efforts are designed to determine seal material response in the repository environment, to provide models of seal system components for performance assessment, and to assist in the development of seal system designs. A code/model development and performance analysis program will be performed to predict the short- and long-term response of seal materials and seal components. The results from these analyses will be used to support the material testing activities on this contract and to support performance assessment activities that are conducted in other parts of the Salt Repository Project (SRP). 48 refs., 15 figs., 4 tabs

  1. FMCSA Safety Program Effectiveness Measurement: Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1 Report for Fiscal Year 2014 Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  2. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1, report for fiscal year 2013 interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  3. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: carrier intervention effectiveness model (CIEM), version 1.1 : report for fiscal year 2013 interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  4. The Effect of Teaching Model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ toward Students’ Achievement in Learning Mathematic at X Years Class SMA Negeri 1 Banuhampu 2013/2014 Academic Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeni, N.; Suryabayu, E. P.; Handayani, T.

    2017-02-01

    Based on the survey showed that mathematics teacher still dominated in teaching and learning process. The process of learning is centered on the teacher while the students only work based on instructions provided by the teacher without any creativity and activities that stimulate students to explore their potential. Realized the problem above the writer interested in finding the solution by applying teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’. The purpose of his research is to know whether teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than conventional teaching in teaching mathematic. The type of the research is quasi experiment by Randomized Control test Group Only Design. The population in this research were all X years class students. The sample is chosen randomly after doing normality, homogeneity test and average level of students’ achievement. As the sample of this research was X.7’s class as experiment class used teaching model learning cycles 5E and X.8’s class as control class used conventional teaching. The result showed us that the students achievement in the class that used teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than the class which did not use the model.

  5. Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sindelarova, K.; Granier, Claire; Bouarar, I.; Guenther, Alex B.; Tilmes, S.; Stavrakou, T.; Muller, J. F.; Kuhn, U.; Stefani, P.; Knorr, W.

    2014-09-09

    The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic VOCs available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980 - 2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg(C) yr1 consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2 %. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of * 17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene in ventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene and*-pinene showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements in the Amazon andthe model was able to capture the seasonal variation of emissions in this region.

  6. How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model. Appendix A & B

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Endowment for the Arts, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents two appendices supporting the "How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model" report. In Appendix A, brief descriptions of relevant studies and datasets for each node in the "How Art Works" system map are presented. This appendix is meant to supply…

  7. The Effect of Training Parents in Couples' Communication Model on Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms in 4-9 Year-Old Students in Isfahan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariat, Arghavan; Malekpour, Mokhtar; Ghamarani, Amir

    2013-01-01

    Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neuropsychological childhood disorders that causes inconvenience to children, families, and the society. The objective of the present research is to investigate the effect of teaching Couples' Communication Model on the symptoms of ADHD in 4-9 year-old students. For this…

  8. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River. [Effects of entrainment and impingement at power plants on population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River.

  9. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  10. 40 CFR 86.005-10 - Emission standards for 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... emissions from new 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle HDEs, except for Otto-cycle HDEs subject to the... its Otto-cycle HDE families in any or all of the emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the... measured under transient operating conditions. (C) Idle carbon monoxide. For all Otto-cycle HDEs utilizing...

  11. An Integrated Model of Academic Self-Concept Development: Academic Self-Concept, Grades, Test Scores, and Tracking over 6 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Herbert W.; Pekrun, Reinhard; Murayama, Kou; Arens, A. Katrin; Parker, Philip D.; Guo, Jiesi; Dicke, Theresa

    2018-01-01

    Our newly proposed integrated academic self-concept model integrates 3 major theories of academic self-concept formation and developmental perspectives into a unified conceptual and methodological framework. Relations among math self-concept (MSC), school grades, test scores, and school-level contextual effects over 6 years, from the end of…

  12. Using the Continuum of Design Modelling Techniques to Aid the Development of CAD Modeling Skills in First Year Industrial Design Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, I. J.; Campbell, R. I.

    2012-01-01

    Industrial Designers need to understand and command a number of modelling techniques to communicate their ideas to themselves and others. Verbal explanations, sketches, engineering drawings, computer aided design (CAD) models and physical prototypes are the most commonly used communication techniques. Within design, unlike some disciplines,…

  13. The model SIRANE for atmospheric urban pollutant dispersion. PART III: Validation against NO2 yearly concentration measurements in a large urban agglomeration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulhac, L.; Nguyen, C. V.; Volta, P.; Salizzoni, P.

    2017-10-01

    We present a validation study of an updated version of the SIRANE model, whose results have been systematically compared to concentrations of nitrogen dioxide collected over the whole urban agglomeration of Lyon. We model atmospheric dispersion of nitrogen oxides emitted by road traffic, industries and domestic heating. The meteorological wind field is computed by a pre-processor using data collected at a ground level monitoring station. Model results are compared with hourly concentrations measured at 15 monitoring stations over the whole year (2008). Further 75 passive diffusion samplers were used during 3 periods of 2 weeks to get a detailed spatial distribution over the west part of the city. An analysis of the model results depending on the variability of the meteorological input allows us to identify the causes for peculiar bad performances of the model and to identify possible improvements of the parameterisations implemented in it.

  14. Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2013-01-01

    The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the

  15. Academic Performance of First-Year Students at a College of Pharmacy in East Tennessee: Models for Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavier, Cheri Whitehead

    2013-01-01

    With the increase of students applying to pharmacy programs, it is imperative that admissions committees choose appropriate measures to analyze student readiness. The purpose of this research was to identify significant factors that predict the academic performance, defined as grade point average (GPA) at the end of the first professional year, of…

  16. A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, R.H.; Jin, Z.; Liu, Q.X.; van de Koppel, J.; Alonso, D.

    2012-01-01

    Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks

  17. A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, R.H.; Jin, Z.; Liu, Q.X.; Van de Koppel, J.; Alonso, D.

    2012-01-01

    Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks

  18. A view of progress in the numerical modeling of physical characteristics of the World Ocean in the light of sixty-year experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkisyan, A. S.

    2015-05-01

    In view of the 60th anniversary of the pioneering oceanographic work on the numerical modeling of dynamical characteristics of the ocean [1], the author has decided to present his view of the principal milestones in the progress of the numerical modeling of climatic characteristics of the ocean. This progress is shown schematically and conventionally as a single a table consisting of two lines: (A) synthesis of measurement data models and (B) theory and calculation of sea currents. Line A consists of the following stages: reference surface method, diagnostic method, diagnostics-adaptation, and four-dimensional analysis. Line B is as follows: Ekman's school, numerical modeling of a barotropic and then baroclinic ocean, modeling of individual basins with high resolution, and modeling of the World Ocean with high resolution and allowance for ice cover. This paper briefly reviews and analyzes the results of each of the abovementioned stages. The author sympathizes with line A because he believes that the most realistic results for characteristics of scientific interest are obtained by a synthesis of models and measurement data, with an optimal choice of the model integration time. Unfortunately, studies in both directions have often used unreasonably long integration times (50-100 years). In this case, models even with a high resolution (0.1° of grid spacing) become inadequate and analyze strange characteristics, such as meridional overturning or kinetic energy averaged over the entire column of the world ocean, which actually have no scientific significance.

  19. Modeling a thick unsaturated zone at San Gorgonio Pass, California: lessons learned after five years of artificial recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Alan L.; Ellett, Kevin M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Martin, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The information flow among the tasks of framework assessment, numerical modeling, model forecasting and hind casting, and system-performance monitoring is illustrated. Results provide an understanding of artificial recharge in high-altitude desert settings where large vertical distances may separate application ponds from their target aquifers.Approximately 3.8 million cubic meters of surface water was applied to spreading ponds from 2003–2007 to artificially recharge the underlying aquifer through a 200-meter thick unsaturated zone in the San Gorgonio Pass area in southern California. A study was conducted between 1997 and 2003, and a numerical model was developed to help determine the suitability of the site for artificial recharge. Ongoing monitoring results indicated that the existing model needed to be modified and recalibrated to more accurately predict artificial recharge at the site. The objective of this work was to recalibrate the model by using observation of the application rates, the rise and fall of the water level above a perching layer, and the approximate arrival time to the water table during the 5-yr monitoring period following initiation of long-term artificial recharge. Continuous monitoring of soil-matric potential, temperature, and water levels beneath the site indicated that artificial recharge reached the underlying water table between 3.75 and 4.5 yr after the initial application of the recharge water. The model was modified to allow the simulation to more adequately match the perching layer dynamics and the time of arrival at the water table. The instrumentation also showed that the lag time between changes in application of water at the surface and the response at the perching layer decreased from about 4 mo to less than 1 mo due to the wet-up of the unsaturated zone and the increase in relative permeability. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of iteratively monitoring and modeling the unsaturated zone in layered

  20. A 5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: predictions from a mathematical model using field data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Andrew P; Hanger, Jon; Loader, Jo; Ellis, William A H; Callaghan, John; Dexter, Cathryn; Jones, Darryl; Beagley, Kenneth W; Timms, Peter; Wilson, David P

    2014-07-16

    Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level

  1. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees) have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox), the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN) have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM) by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms); arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a) forcing all factors; b) a forward-; and c) a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis) with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810) but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838) were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors), family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm circumference

  2. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  3. A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas

  4. Twenty-five years with the biopsychosocial model of low back pain-is it time to celebrate?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pincus, Tamar; Kent, Peter; Bronfort, Gert

    2013-01-01

    An integrated review of current knowledge about the biopsychosocial model of back pain for understanding etiology, prognosis, and interventions, as presented at the plenary sessions of the XII International Forum on LBP Research in Primary Care (Denmark; October 17-19, 2012)....

  5. The Job Demands-Job Control Model and absence behaviour : results of a 3-year longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.G.W.; Nijhuis, F.J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical results of earlier studies only marginally supported the relevance of Karasek's Job Demands-Job Control Model for absence behaviour. Since longitudinal studies with respect to these relations were largely lacking, a four-wave panel study was carried out using data from 1755 male employees

  6. Evaluating 4 years of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) over Europe using IASI satellite observations and LOTOS-EUROS model results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damme, M. van; Wichink Kruit, R.J.; Schaap, M.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.F.; Dammers, E.; Dolman, A.J.; Erisman, J.W.

    2014-01-01

    Monitoring ammonia (NH3) concentrations on a global to regional scale is a challenge. Due to the limited availability of reliable ground-based measurements, the determination of NH3 distributions generally relies on model calculations. Novel remotely sensed NH3burdens provide valuable insights to

  7. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-05-01

    The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900-1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature

  8. Validation and Extension of the Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic Model (ProVent) Score for Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udeh, Chiedozie I; Hadder, Brent; Udeh, Belinda L

    2015-12-01

    Prognostic models can inform management decisions for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. The Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic model (ProVent) score was developed to predict 1-year mortality in these patients. External evaluation of such models is needed before they are adopted for routine use. The goal was to perform an independent external validation of the modified ProVent score and assess for spectrum extension at 14 days of mechanical ventilation. This was a retrospective cohort analysis of patients who received prolonged mechanical ventilation at the University of Iowa Hospitals. Patients who received 14 or more days of mechanical ventilation were identified from a database. Manual review of their medical records was performed to abstract relevant data including the four model variables at Days 14 and 21 of mechanical ventilation. Vital status at 1 year was checked in the medical records or the social security death index. Logistic regressions examined the associations between the different variables and mortality. Model performance at 14 to 20 days and 21+ days was assessed for discrimination by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. A total of 180 patients (21+ d) and 218 patients (14-20 d) were included. Overall, 75% were surgical patients. One-year mortality was 51% for 21+ days and 32% for 14 to 20 days of mechanical ventilation. Age greater than 65 years was the strongest predictor of mortality at 1 year in all cohorts. There was no significant difference between predicted and observed mortality rates for patients stratified by ProVent score. There was near-perfect specificity for mortality in the groups with higher ProVent scores. Areas under the curve were 0.69 and 0.75 for the 21+ days and the 14 to 20 days cohorts respectively. P values for the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics were 0.24 for 21+ days and 0.22 for 14 to

  9. Extracurricular Learning Model In Girls Volleyball (Case Studies In SMP Negeri 1 Bancak Kabupaten Semarang Academic Year 2013/2014)

    OpenAIRE

    SUMARYONO, IG

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the implementation of extracurricular activities in women's volleyball SMP Negeri 1 Bancak Kabupaten Semarang Academic Year 2013/2014.The research was conducted at SMP Negeri 1 Bancak Kabupaten Semarang using qualitative methods. Source of information in this study was the Principal, teacher or sports coach and student. Data collection techniques used observation, interview and documentation.Based on these results it can be concluded that the prepa...

  10. Transfer of Problem Solving Skills from Touchscreen to 3D Model by 3- to 6-Year-Olds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Tarasuik

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Although much published research purports that young children struggle to solve problems from screen-based media and to transfer learning from a virtual to a physical modality, Huber et al. (2016’s recent study on children solving the Tower of Hanoi (ToH problem on a touchscreen app offers a clear counter example. Huber et al. (2016 reported that children transferred learning from media to the physical world. As this finding arguably differs from that of prior research in this area, the current study tests whether the Huber et al. (2016 results could be replicated. Additionally, we extended the scope of the Huber et al. (2016 work by testing a broader age range, including children as young as 3 years, and using a culturally distinct participant pool. The results of the current study verified Huber et al.’s (2016 conclusion that 4- to 6-year-old children are capable of transferring the ToH learning from touchscreen devices to the physical version of the puzzle. Children under 4 years of age, in contrast, showed little ability to improve at the ToH problem regardless of the practice modality—suggesting that a different problem-solving task is required to probe very young children’s ability to learn from touchscreen apps.

  11. Computer Modeling of Hydrology, Weathering, and Isotopic Fractionation in Andrews Creek, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado for Water Years 1992 through 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. M. T.; Parkhurst, D. L.; Mast, A.; Clow, D. W.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) was used to simulate hydrology, weathering, and isotopic fractionation in the 1.7 square kilometer Andrews Creek alpine watershed. WEBMOD includes hydrologic modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model, and TOPMODEL. PHREEQC, a geochemical reaction model, is coupled with the hydrologic model to simulate the geochemical evolution of waters as they evaporate, mix, and react within the landscape. Major solute concentrations and δ18O were modeled over the period 1992-2012. Variations of chloride and inorganic nitrogen respond almost entirely to variations in atmospheric deposition and preferential elution of snowpack. Both evaporation and melting result in isotopic enrichment of heavy isotopes in the residual snowpack throughout the summer. Magnesium and potassium, derived mostly from weathering with some atmospheric inputs, vary seasonally with uptake during the growing season and release during the fall and winter. The weathering of granitic minerals—oligoclase, biotite, chlorite, pyrite, calcite, and formation of secondary minerals—kaolinite, goethite, gibbsite, and smectite-illite—were selected as primary reactions based on mole-balance modeling of basin outflows. The rates of these reactions were quantified by calibrating WEBMOD to match observed concentrations and loads. Exported annual loads of most weathering products are highly correlated with discharge, whereas silica loads are less correlated with discharge, suggesting a source that is more active during dry years and less active during wet years. Potential sources include net dissolution of kaolinite and smectite-illite or mineralization of colloids with high silica content. WEBMOD is a valuable tool for simulating water quality variations in response to climate change, acid mine drainage, acid rain, biological transformations, and other

  12. Language, motor and cognitive development of extremely preterm children: modeling individual growth trajectories over the first three years of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansavini, Alessandra; Pentimonti, Jill; Justice, Laura; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Survival rate of extremely low gestational age (ELGA) newborns has increased over 80% in the last 15 years, but its consequences on the short- and longer-term developmental competencies may be severe. The aim of this study was to describe growth trajectories of linguistic, motor and cognitive skills among ELGA children, compared to full-term (FT) peers, from the first to the third year of life, a crucial period for development. Growth curve analysis was used to examine individual and group differences in terms of initial status at 12 months and rate of growth through the second and the third year of life with five points of assessment. Twenty-eight monolingual Italian children, of whom 17 were ELGA (mean GA 25.7 weeks) and 11 were FT children, were assessed through the BSID-III at 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 months for language skills and at 12, 24 and 30 months for motor and cognitive skills. ELGA children presented significantly lower scores than FT peers in language, motor and cognitive skills and they did not overcome their disadvantage by 3 years, even if their corrected age was taken into account. Concerning growth curves, in motor development a significant increasing divergence was found showing a Matthew effect with the preterm sample falling further behind the FT sample. In linguistic and cognitive development, instead, a stable gap between the two samples was found. In addition, great inter-individual differences in rate of change were observed for language development in both samples. Our findings highlight the theoretical and clinical relevance of analyzing, through growth curve analyses, the developmental trajectories of ELGA children in language skills taking into account their inter-individual variability also across motor and cognitive domains. After reading this article, the reader will interpret: (a) characteristics and growth trajectories of ELGA children from the first to the third year of life with respect to FT children in language, motor and

  13. Analysis of Casualty Risk per Police-Reported Crash for Model Year 2000 to 2004 Vehicles, using Crash Data from Five States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom

    2011-03-20

    In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk could differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.

  14. A validated age-related normative model for male total testosterone shows increasing variance but no decline after age 40 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Thomas W; Li, Lucy Q; Mitchell, Rod T; Whelan, Ashley; Anderson, Richard A; Wallace, W Hamish B

    2014-01-01

    The diagnosis of hypogonadism in human males includes identification of low serum testosterone levels, and hence there is an underlying assumption that normal ranges of testosterone for the healthy population are known for all ages. However, to our knowledge, no such reference model exists in the literature, and hence the availability of an applicable biochemical reference range would be helpful for the clinical assessment of hypogonadal men. In this study, using model selection and validation analysis of data identified and extracted from thirteen studies, we derive and validate a normative model of total testosterone across the lifespan in healthy men. We show that total testosterone peaks [mean (2.5-97.5 percentile)] at 15.4 (7.2-31.1) nmol/L at an average age of 19 years, and falls in the average case [mean (2.5-97.5 percentile)] to 13.0 (6.6-25.3) nmol/L by age 40 years, but we find no evidence for a further fall in mean total testosterone with increasing age through to old age. However we do show that there is an increased variation in total testosterone levels with advancing age after age 40 years. This model provides the age related reference ranges needed to support research and clinical decision making in males who have symptoms that may be due to hypogonadism.

  15. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  16. Two-year concurrent observation of isoprene at 20 sites over China: comparison with MEGAN-REAM model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Yang, W.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Lyu, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, G.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Isoprene, the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon emitted from plants, directly and indirectly affects atmospheric photochemistry and radiative forcing, yet narrowing its emission uncertainties is a continuous challenge. Comparison of observed and modelled isoprene on large spatiotemporal scales would help recognize factors that control isoprene variability, systematic field observation data are however quite lacking. Here we collected ambient air samples with 1 L silonite-treated stainless steel canisters simultaneously at 20 sites over China on every Wednesday at approximately 14:00 pm Beijing time from 2012 to 2014, and analyzed isoprene mixing ratios by preconcentrator-GC-MSD/FID. Observed isoprene mixing ratios were also compared with that simulated by coupling MEGAN 2.0 (Guenther et al., 2006) with a 3-D Regional chEmical trAnsport Model (REAM) (Zhang et al., 2017). Similar seasonal variations between observation and model simulation were obtained for most of sampling sites, but overall the average isoprene mixing ratios during growing months (May to October) was 0.37 ± 0.08 ppbv from model simulation, about 32% lower than that of 0.54 ± 0.20 ppbv based on ground-based observation, and this discrepancy was particularly significant in north China during wintertime. Further investigation demonstrated that emission of biogenic isoprene in northwest China might be underestimated and non-biogenic emission, such burning biomass/biofuel, might contribute to the elevated levels of isoprene during winter time. The observation-based empirical formulas for changing isoprene emission with solar radiation and temperature were also derived for different regions of China.

  17. Reduction of CO2 emission by INCAM model in Malaysia biomass power plants during the year 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Nor Aishah Saidina; Talebian-Kiakalaieh, Amin

    2018-03-01

    As the world's second largest palm oil producer and exporter, Malaysia could capitalize on its oil palm biomass waste for power generation. The emission factors from this renewable energy source are far lower than that of fossil fuels. This study applies an integrated carbon accounting and mitigation (INCAM) model to calculate the amount of CO 2 emissions from two biomass thermal power plants. The CO 2 emissions released from biomass plants utilizing empty fruit bunch (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME), as alternative fuels for powering steam and gas turbines, were determined using the INCAM model. Each section emitting CO 2 in the power plant, known as the carbon accounting center (CAC), was measured for its carbon profile (CP) and carbon index (CI). The carbon performance indicator (CPI) included electricity, fuel and water consumption, solid waste and waste-water generation. The carbon emission index (CEI) and carbon emission profile (CEP), based on the total monthly carbon production, were determined across the CPI. Various innovative strategies resulted in a 20%-90% reduction of CO 2 emissions. The implementation of reduction strategies significantly reduced the CO 2 emission levels. Based on the model, utilization of EFB and POME in the facilities could significantly reduce the CO 2 emissions and increase the potential for waste to energy initiatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The use of multilevel modeling and the level two residual file to explore the relationship between middle years programme student performance and diploma programme student performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Melissa; Bergeron, Liz

    2015-03-01

    Multilevel modeling has recently found a substantial niche in the context of educational research, although several details about the methodological application of these models have yet to be explored in an achievement data framework. This paper makes use of data provided by the International Baccalaureate (IB) in order to investigate modeling decisions and certain applications of the level two residual file in an effort to increase understanding about the way linear and logistic multilevel models function. The focus of this research is on the relationship between performances in two IB programmes: the Middle Years Programme (MYP) and the Diploma Programme (DP). The impact of predictors on the interpretation of the unconditional and conditional variance-covariance matrix as well as the reliability coefficients is discussed. Empirical findings suggest that students who perform better during MYP moderation tend to perform better on DP exams. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Using Stochastically Downscaled Climate Models and Multiproxy Lake Sediment Data to Connect Climatic Variations Over the Past 1000 Years and the History of Prehistoric Maize Farming in Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, M. J.; MacDonald, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    We are investigating the relationship between climatic variations over the past 1000 years and the history of prehistoric maize farming expansion and decline in the American Southwest, with a focus on Utah. We are examining both the downscaled climate models and high resolution analyses of lake cores and dendrochronological data matched with occupation information. We are testing the specific utility of stochastically downscaled general circulation models (viz. ECHO-G) to reconstruct local conditions for sites with documented prehistoric dryland farming through the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and transition to the Little Ice Age (LIA). We are testing our model-based reconstructions with proxies of temperature and aridity from three subalpine lake sediment cores transecting Utah. We compare the patterns of climate change from the downscaled models and the paleoclimate records to a database of 837 radiocarbon dates over 169 locations of archaeological Native American maize-farmer site occupations in Utah.

  20. Development and External Validation of Prognostic Model for 2-Year Survival of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Yu Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Meersschout, Sabine; Van Beek, Karen; Lievens, Yolande; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; De Neve, Wilfried; Rao, Bharat Ph.D.; Weide, Hiska van der; Lambin, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. Conclusion: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process.

  1. Harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, N.

    2012-12-01

    We show that the Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles that are closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (~9.93 year), to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years) and to a central cycle that may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle. The central harmonic is approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A harmonic model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals major beat periods occurring at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. Equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic solar proxy records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima around 1900-1920 and 1960-1980, the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005, and a secular upward trending during the 20th century. The latter modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which is produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts

  2. An EGS4-ready tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso for calculating organ doses from CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caon, M.; School of Physics and Electronic Systems Engineering, University of South Australia, The Levels Campus, Mawson Lakes, South Australia, 5095; Pattison, J.

    1999-01-01

    Fifty-four consecutive CT scans have been used to construct a tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso suitable for the determination of organ doses from CT. The model, known as ADELAIDE, is in the form of an input file compatible with user codes based on XYZDOS.MOR from the readily available EGS4 Monte Carlo radiation transport code. ADELAIDE's dimensions are close to the Australian averages for her age so the model is representative of a 14-year-old girl. The realistic anatomy in the model differs considerably from that in Cristy's 15-year-old mathematical computational model by having realistically shaped organs that are appropriately located within a real external contour. Average absorbed dose to organs from simulated CT examinations of the chest and abdomen have been calculated for ADELAIDE using EGS4 within a geometry specific to the General Electric Hi-Speed Advantage CT scanner and using an x-ray spectrum calculated using data from the scanner's x-ray tube. The simulations include the scanner's beam shaping filter and patient table. It is suggested that the resulting values have fewer possible sources of uncertainty than organ doses derived from dose coefficients calculated for a MIRD style model with mathematical anatomy and a spectrum that may not match that of the scanner. The organ doses were normalized using the scanner's CTDI measured free-in-air and an EGS4 simulation of the CTDI measurement. Effective dose to the torso from 26-slice chest and 24-slice abdomen examinations (at 120 kV, 200 mAs, 7 mm slices) is 4.6±0.1mSv and 4.3±0.1mSv respectively. (author)

  3. Simulated root dynamics of a 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree with and without ozone exposure using the TREGRO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retzlaff, W. A.; Weinstein, D. A.; Laurence, J. A.; Gollands, B.

    1996-01-01

    Because of difficulties in directly assessing root responses of mature forest trees exposed to atmospheric pollutants, we have used the model TREGRO to analyze the effects of a 3- and a 10-year exposure to ozone (O(3)) on root dynamics of a simulated 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree. We used existing phenological, allometric, and growth data to parameterize TREGRO to produce a simulated 160-year-old tree. Simulations were based on literature values for sugar maple fine root production and senescence and the photosynthetic responses of sugar maple seedlings exposed to O(3) in open-top chambers. In the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3), 2 x ambient atmospheric O(3) concentrations reduced net carbon (C) gain of the 160-year-old tree. This reduction occurred in the C storage pools (total nonstructural carbohydrate, TNC), with most of the reduction occurring in coarse (woody) roots. Total fine root production and senescence were unaffected by the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3). However, extending the simulated O(3) exposure period to 10 years depleted the TNC pools of the coarse roots and reduced total fine root production. Similar reductions in TNC pools have been observed in forest-grown sugar maple trees exhibiting symptoms of stress. We conclude that modeling can aid in evaluating the belowground response of mature forest trees to atmospheric pollution stress and could indicate the potential for gradual deterioration of tree health under conditions of long-term stress, a situation similar to that underlying the decline of sugar maple trees.

  4. [Epidemiology of homicides in Cali, Colombia, 1993-1998: six years of a population-based model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha-Eastman, Alberto; Espitia, Victoria E; Espinosa, Rafael; Guerrero, Rodrigo

    2002-10-01

    To demonstrate the usefulness of an effective and timely information model, underscore the seriousness of the problem of homicides, and point out the need to apply this type of model as well as comprehensive prevention projects, such as Desarrollo, Seguridad y Paz (DESESPAZ). From 1993 to 1998, 11 457 homicides were registered in Cali, Colombia, through an epidemiological surveillance model established under DESESPAZ by the mayor's office in Cali. Beginning in January 1993, a work group organized by DESESPAZ reviewed and standardized the variables that different institutions gathered about the victims, their assailants, and the facts surrounding each case, and issued a weekly summary bulletin for the mayor and other local authorities. Between 1983 and 1994, the homicide rate increased from 23 to 124 per 100 000 inhabitants. Subsequently, rates went down in 1995, 1996, and 1997 to 112, 102, and 86,1 per 100 000, respectively, and again rose slightly in 1998 to 88 per 100 000. Even though people of all ages, including children under 5, have been victims of violence, the most affected group is that of men between the ages of 20 and 34. The ratio of men to women has varied from 14.3:1 to 9.2:1. In terms of numbers, percentages, and rates, low-income groups are the most seriously affected, although the highest-income groups have had rates as high as 160 per 100 000. A firearm was used in over 80% of homicides, and the crime was most often committed at night and on a weekend. A suspect was identified in only a few cases (8% to 21%). The bivariate analysis revealed a positive association with alcohol consumption by the victim, as well as with the use of firearms by the assailant (OR: 3.1; 95% CI: 2.6 to 3.6). Cases that occurred during a fight between individuals or during group fighting showed an association with the use of a sharp weapon and with alcohol consumption by the victim (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.6). A map shows the homicide distribution by neighborhood, and

  5. Poverty as a Predictor of 4-Year-Olds’ Executive Function: New Perspectives on Models of Differential Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raver, C. Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Willoughby, Michael

    2017-01-01

    In a predominantly low-income, population-based longitudinal sample of 1,259 children followed from birth, results suggest that chronic exposure to poverty and the strains of financial hardship were each uniquely predictive of young children’s performance on measures of executive functioning. Results suggest that temperament-based vulnerability serves as a statistical moderator of the link between poverty-related risk and children’s executive functioning. Implications for models of ecology and biology in shaping the development of children’s self-regulation are discussed. PMID:22563675

  6. Year rather than farming system influences protein utilization and energy value of vegetables when measured in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Henry; Brandt, Kirsten; Lauridsen, Charlotte

    2008-12-01

    The aim of the study was to measure protein utilization and energy value of dried apple, carrot, kale, pea, and potato prepared for human consumption and grown in 2 consecutive years with 3 different farming systems: (1) low input of fertilizer without pesticides (LIminusP), (2) low input of fertilizers and high input of pesticides (LIplusP), (3) and high input of fertilizers and high input of pesticides (HIplusP). In addition, the study goal was to verify the nutritional values, taking into consideration the physiologic state. In experiment 1, the nutritive values, including protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score, were determined in single ingredients in trials with young rats (3-4 weeks) as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization for all age groups. A second experiment was carried out with adult rats to assess the usefulness of digestibility values to predict the digestibility and nutritive value of mixed diets and study the age aspect. Each plant material was included in the diet with protein-free basal mixtures or casein to contain 10% dietary protein. The results showed that variations in protein utilization and energy value determined on single ingredients between cultivation strategies were inconsistent and smaller than between harvest years. Overall, dietary crude fiber was negatively correlated with energy digestibility. The energy value of apple, kale, and pea was lower than expected from literature values. A mixture of plant ingredients fed to adult rats showed lower protein digestibility and higher energy digestibility than predicted. The protein digestibility data obtained using young rats in the calculation of protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score overestimates protein digestibility and quality and underestimates energy value for mature rats. The present study provides new data on protein utilization and energy digestibility of some typical plant foods that may

  7. Linking growth to environmental histories in central Baltic young-of-the-year sprat, Sprattus sprattus : an approach based on otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, H.; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Voss, R.

    2006-01-01

    Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back-calculat......Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back......-calculated days of first feeding (DFF), was narrow compared to the extended spawning season of sprat in the Baltic Sea (mean +/- SD = 22 June +/- 14.1 days) and indicated that only individuals born in summer survived until October 2002. Within the group of survivors, individuals born later in the season exhibited...

  8. Why did modern human populations disperse from Africa ca. 60,000 years ago? A new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellars, Paul

    2006-06-20

    Recent research has provided increasing support for the origins of anatomically and genetically "modern" human populations in Africa between 150,000 and 200,000 years ago, followed by a major dispersal of these populations to both Asia and Europe sometime after ca. 65,000 before present (B.P.). However, the central question of why it took these populations approximately 100,000 years to disperse from Africa to other regions of the world has never been clearly resolved. It is suggested here that the answer may lie partly in the results of recent DNA studies of present-day African populations, combined with a spate of new archaeological discoveries in Africa. Studies of both the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mismatch patterns in modern African populations and related mtDNA lineage-analysis patterns point to a major demographic expansion centered broadly within the time range from 80,000 to 60,000 B.P., probably deriving from a small geographical region of Africa. Recent archaeological discoveries in southern and eastern Africa suggest that, at approximately the same time, there was a major increase in the complexity of the technological, economic, social, and cognitive behavior of certain African groups, which could have led to a major demographic expansion of these groups in competition with other, adjacent groups. It is suggested that this complex of behavioral changes (possibly triggered by the rapid environmental changes around the transition from oxygen isotope stage 5 to stage 4) could have led not only to the expansion of the L2 and L3 mitochondrial lineages over the whole of Africa but also to the ensuing dispersal of these modern populations over most regions of Asia, Australasia, and Europe, and their replacement (with or without interbreeding) of the preceding "archaic" populations in these regions.

  9. Analysis of impulse oscillometric measures of lung function and respiratory system model parameters in small airway-impaired and healthy children over a 2-year period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nava Pat

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Is Impulse Oscillometry System (IOS a valuable tool to measure respiratory system function in Children? Asthma (A is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease in children. Therefore, early and accurate assessment of respiratory function is of tremendous clinical interest in diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of respiratory conditions in this subpopulation. IOS has been successfully used to measure lung function in children with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity to small airway impairments (SAI and asthma. IOS measures of airway function and equivalent electrical circuit models of the human respiratory system have been developed to quantify the severity of these conditions. Previously, we have evaluated several known respiratory models based on the Mead's model and more parsimonious versions based on fitting IOS data known as extended RIC (eRIC and augmented RIC (aRIC models have emerged, which offer advantages over earlier models. Methods IOS data from twenty-six children were collected and compared during pre-bronchodilation (pre-B and post- bronchodilation (post-B conditions over a period of 2 years. Results and Discussion Are the IOS and model parameters capable of differentiating between healthy children and children with respiratory system distress? Children were classified into two main categories: Healthy (H and Small Airway-Impaired (SAI. The IOS measures and respiratory model parameters analyzed differed consistently between H and SAI children. SAI children showed smaller trend of "growth" and larger trend of bronchodilator responses than H children. The two model parameters: peripheral compliance (Cp and peripheral resistance (Rp tracked IOS indices of small airway function well. Cp was a more sensitive index than Rp. Both eRIC and aRIC Cps and the IOS Reactance Area, AX, (also known as the "Goldman Triangle" showed good correlations. Conclusions What are the most useful IOS and model parameters? In

  10. predictive power of Health Promotion Model constructs in relation to oral health behaviors among students in Elementary school students year 2016-17

    OpenAIRE

    Mitra Moodi; Gholamreza Sharifzadeh; Sedigheh Ramazani; Leili Jalilian

    2018-01-01

    Background and Aim: Recognition of factors affecting oral health behaviors in students is a key step in promoting oral health. This study explored the predictive power of constructs in Pender’s Health Promotion Model vis-à-vis oral health behaviors among elementary students in 2016-2017 school year in Nehbandan. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study recruited 464 fifth- and sixth-grade Nehbandan-based elementary students who were selected through randomized cluster...

  11. A synthesis of ten years' tests on scale models of LMFBR steam generators at the CGVS facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, J.P.; Quinet, J.L.

    1982-01-01

    Electricite de France has built a high power sodium heated steam generator (SG) facility (CGVS), capable of reproducing all possible operating conditions, to study the behaviour of scale-models of industrial apparatuses. The main findings of the experiments were as follows: - heat exchange surfaces remained perfectly leak proof; - hydrogen detection in the sodium and argon constitute additional systems for monitoring the impermeability to leaks of a SG with a free sodium surface; - extrapolation of the findings to the SUPER PHENIX SG shows that water leaking at a rate of 100 mg/s would induce in ten minutes a 50% rise of the signal produced by the hydrogen monitoring device in the sodium; - acoustic method can detect leaks of the order of one g/s in a 45 MW SG sited in an industrial environment

  12. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  13. Nitrogen dioxide levels estimated from land use regression models several years apart and association with mortality in a large cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesaroni Giulia

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Land Use Regression models (LUR are useful to estimate the spatial variability of air pollution in urban areas. Few studies have evaluated the stability of spatial contrasts in outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2 concentration over several years. We aimed to compare measured and estimated NO2 levels 12 years apart, the stability of the exposure estimates for members of a large cohort study, and the association of the exposure estimates with natural mortality within the cohort. Methods We measured NO2 at 67 locations in Rome in 1995/96 and 78 sites in 2007, over three one-week-long periods. To develop LUR models, several land-use and traffic variables were used. NO2 concentration at each residential address was estimated for a cohort of 684,000 adults. We used Cox regression to analyze the association between the two estimated exposures and mortality. Results The mean NO2 measured concentrations were 45.4 μg/m3 (SD 6.9 in 1995/96 and 44.6 μg/m3 (SD 11.0 in 2007, respectively. The correlation of the two measurements was 0.79. The LUR models resulted in adjusted R2 of 0.737 and 0.704, respectively. The correlation of the predicted exposure values for cohort members was 0.96. The association of each 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 with mortality was 6 % for 1995/96 and 4 % for 2007 LUR models. The increased risk per an inter-quartile range change was identical (4 %, 95 % CI:3–6 % for both estimates of NO2. Conclusions Measured and predicted NO2 values from LUR models, from samples collected 12 years apart, had good agreement, and the exposure estimates were similarly associated with mortality in a large cohort study.

  14. Mental Health Changes and Its Predictors in Adolescents using the Path Analytic Model: A 7-Year Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This 7-year observational study examines the hours of TV-watching, phone conversation with friends, using the internet, and physical activity as predictors of mental health among adolescents in south of Iran.At the baseline (in 2005, the participants were 2584 high school students in the 9th to 11th grade. At the baseline, 30% of the available participants (n = 775 were selected in the follow-up (2012 using convenience sampling method. This study used the path analysis to examine the predictors of mental health and to obtain direct, indirect and total effects of the independent variables.At the baseline (2005, female gender, internet use, maternal education, physical activity and father's education were associated with mental health (p<0.05. Baseline mental health, internet use and physical activity predicted mental health of the participants in the follow up (p<0.05.The findings of the study revealed that better mental health in later life is associated with better mental health at baseline, male gender, higher physical activity and phone communication with friends, and less use of the internet and TV.

  15. A Multi-Year Aerosol Characterization for the Greater Tehran Area Using Satellite, Surface, and Modeling Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewan Crosbie

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study reports a multi-year (2000–2009 aerosol characterization for metropolitan Tehran and surrounding areas using multiple datasets (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, and surface and upper air data from local stations. Monthly trends in aerosol characteristics are examined in the context of the local meteorology, regional and local emission sources, and air mass back-trajectory data. Dust strongly affects the region during the late spring and summer months (May–August when aerosol optical depth (AOD is at its peak and precipitation accumulation is at a minimum. In addition, the peak AOD that occurs in July is further enhanced by a substantial number of seasonal wildfires in upwind regions. Conversely, AOD is at a minimum during winter; however, reduced mixing heights and a stagnant lower atmosphere trap local aerosol emissions near the surface and lead to significant reductions in visibility within Tehran. The unique meteorology and topographic setting makes wintertime visibility and surface aerosol concentrations particularly sensitive to local anthropogenic sources and is evident in the noteworthy improvement in visibility observed on weekends. Scavenging of aerosol due to precipitation is evident during the winter when a consistent increase in surface visibility and concurrent decrease in AOD is observed in the days after rain compared with the days immediately before rain.

  16. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment.

  17. Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history using hydrological model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Wu

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The 1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458 points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI, which can be used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis. We have developed a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought events. As a result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978, 2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, which indicates that the SMAPI is capable of identifying the onset of a drought event, its progression, as well as its termination. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts in China's nine drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to 30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions (Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North from 1951–2009. However, the decadal variability of droughts has been weak in the rest of the five regions (South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet. Xinjiang has even been showing steadily wetter since the 1950s. Two regional dry centres are discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first centre is located in the area partially covered by the North

  18. General and specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder factors of children 4 to 6 years of age: An exploratory structural equation modeling approach to assessing symptom multidimensionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Víctor B; Ponce, Fernando P; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Benito; Núñez, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    We tested first-order factor and bifactor models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to adequately summarize the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, (DSM-IV-TR) symptoms observed in a Spanish sample of preschoolers and kindergarteners. Six ESEM and CFA models were estimated based on teacher evaluations of the behavior of 638 children 4 to 6 years of age. An ESEM bifactor model with a central dimension plus 3 specific factors (inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity) showed the best fit and interpretability. Strict invariance between the sexes was observed. The bifactor model provided a solution to previously encountered inconsistencies in the factorial models of ADHD in young children. However, the low reliability of the specific factors casts doubt on the utility of the subscales for ADHD measurement. More research is necessary to clarify the nature of G and S factors of ADHD. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

  19. Behavioral health screening and intervention for women in Argentina: a preliminary model for the childbearing years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suarez Ordoñez RM

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Rocio M Suarez Ordoñez,1 Jorgelina Cesolari,2 Casas Ofelia,2 Ivonne Villavicencio,1 Hendrée E Jones31Research Department, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience INECO Oroño, 2Neonatology Department, Martin Maternity, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina; 3UNC Horizons and Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USAAbstract: Untreated behavioral disorders in pregnant women and in women of childbearing age pose physical and psychological safety concerns and are barriers to the well-being of both mother and neonate. The present paper underlines the importance of screening in Argentina for behavioral problems in women of childbearing age, particularly pregnant women and their newborns. Emphasized is the need to formalize this comprehensive screening in a protocol that includes domains of mental disorders, behavioral disorders, education, social environment, employment, desire for maternity, substance use including non-prescription use of prescription medications, eating disorders, suicide risk, interpersonal violence, stress, and trauma. Implementation of such a model would require agreement and cooperation between the public and private health sectors as well as in the development of research for validation of the various screening and interventions tools that would be adopted for general use. Keywords: pregnancy, substance use, assessment, measures

  20. Modeling the recurrent failure to thrive in less than two-year children: recurrent events survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saki Malehi, Amal; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Kambiz; Kholdi, Nahid

    2014-01-01

    This study aimes to evaluate the failure to thrive (FTT) recurrent event over time. This longitudinal study was conducted during February 2007 to July 2009. The primary outcome was growth failure. The analysis was done using 1283 children who had experienced FTT several times, based on recurrent events analysis. Fifty-nine percent of the children had experienced the FTT at least one time and 5.3% of them had experienced it up to four times. The Prentice-Williams-Peterson (PWP) model revealed significant relationship between diarrhea (HR=1.26), respiratory infections (HR=1.25), urinary tract infections (HR=1.51), discontinuation of breast-feeding (HR=1.96), teething (HR=1.18), initiation age of complementary feeding (HR=1.11) and hazard rate of the first FTT event. Recurrence nature of the FTT is a main problem, which taking it into account increases the accuracy in analysis of FTT event process and can lead to identify different risk factors for each FTT recurrences.

  1. Depression in Men and Women One Year Following Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI: A TBI Model Systems Study

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    Sarah Lavoie

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In the general population, females experience depression at significantly higher rates than males. Individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI are at substantially greater risk for depression compared to the overall population. Treatment of, and recovery from, TBI can be hindered by depression; comorbid TBI and depression can lead to adverse outcomes and negatively affect multiple aspects of individuals’ lives. Gender differences in depression following TBI are not well understood, and relevant empirical findings have been mixed. Utilizing the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9 1 year after TBI, we examined whether women would experience more severe depressive symptoms, and would endorse higher levels of depression within each category of depression severity, than would men. Interestingly, and contrary to our hypothesis, men and women reported mild depression at equal rates; PHQ-9 total scores were slightly lower in women than in men. Men and women did not differ significantly in any PHQ-9 depression severity category. Item analyses, yielded significant gender differences on the following items: greater concentration difficulties (cognitive problems in men and more sleep disturbances (psychosomatic issues in women per uncorrected two-sample Z-test for proportions analyses; however, these results were not significant after the family-wise Bonferroni correction. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the general population, mild depression in persons with moderate to severe TBI may not be gender-specific. These findings underscore the need for early identification, active screening, and depression treatment equally for men and women to improve emotional well-being, promote recovery, and enhance quality of life following TBI.

  2. Five-Year-Olds’ Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206

  3. Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.

  4. Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model.

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    Collin F Payne

    Full Text Available Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited.Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64% of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5 with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46% of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8 with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well

  5. One-Year Outcomes of Total Meniscus Reconstruction Using a Novel Fiber-Reinforced Scaffold in an Ovine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jay M; Merriam, Aaron R; Culp, Brian M; Gatt, Charles J; Dunn, Michael G

    2016-04-01

    Meniscus injuries and resulting meniscectomies lead to joint deterioration, causing pain, discomfort, and instability. Tissue-engineered devices to replace the meniscus have not shown consistent success with regard to function, mechanical integrity, or protection of cartilage. To evaluate a novel resorbable polymer fiber-reinforced meniscus reconstruction scaffold in an ovine model for 52 weeks and assess its integrity, tensile and compressive mechanics, cell phenotypes, matrix organization and content, and protection of the articular cartilage surfaces. Controlled laboratory study. Eight skeletally mature ewes were implanted with the fiber-reinforced scaffold after total meniscectomy, and 2 additional animals had untreated total meniscectomies. Animals were sacrificed at 52 weeks, and the explants and articular surfaces were analyzed macroscopically. Explants were characterized by ultimate tensile testing, confined compression creep testing, and biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical analyses. Cartilage damage was characterized using the Mankin score on histologic slides from both the femur and tibia. One sheep was removed from the study because of a torn extensor tendon; the remaining 7 explants remained fully intact and incorporated into the bone tunnels. All explants exhibited functional tensile loads, tensile stiffnesses, and compressive moduli. Fibrocartilagenous repair with both types 1 and 2 collagen were observed, with areas of matrix organization and biochemical content similar to native tissue. Narrowing in the body region was observed in 5 of 7 explants. Mankin scores showed less cartilage damage in the explant group (femoral condyle: 3.43 ± 0.79, tibial plateau: 3.50 ± 1.63) than in the meniscectomy group (femoral condyle: 8.50 ± 3.54, tibial plateau: 6.75 ± 2.47) and were comparable with Mankin scores at the previously reported 16- and 32-week time points. A resorbable fiber-reinforced meniscus scaffold supports formation of functional

  6. Mechanosensing in myosin filament solves a 60 years old conflict in skeletal muscle modeling between high power output and slow rise in tension

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Marcucci

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Almost 60 years ago Andrew Huxley with his seminal paper [Huxley1957] laid the foundation of modern muscle modeling, linking chemical events to mechanical performance. He described mechanics and energetics of muscle contraction through the cyclical attachment and detachment of myosin motors to the actin filament with ad hoc assumptions on the dependence of the rate constants on the strain of the myosin motors. That relatively simple hypothesis is still present in recent models, even though with several modifications to adapt the model to the different experimental constraints which became subsequently available. However, already in that paper, one controversial aspect of the model became clear. Relatively high attachment and detachment rates of myosin to the actin filament were needed to simulate the high power output at intermediate velocity of contraction. However, these rates were incompatible with the relatively slow rise in tension after activation, despite the rise should be generated by the same rate functions. This discrepancy has not been fully solved till today, despite several hypotheses have been forwarded to reconcile the two aspects.Here, using a conventional muscle model, we show that the recently revealed mechanosensing mechanism of recruitment of myosin motors [Linarietal2015] can solve this long standing problem without any further ad-hoc hypotheses.

  7. Development and validation of a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model for simulating submarining in motor-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jingwen; Klinich, Kathleen D; Reed, Matthew P; Kokkolaras, Michael; Rupp, Jonathan D

    2012-06-01

    In motor-vehicle crashes, young school-aged children restrained by vehicle seat belt systems often suffer from abdominal injuries due to submarining. However, the current anthropomorphic test device, so-called "crash dummy", is not adequate for proper simulation of submarining. In this study, a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model capable of simulating and predicting submarining was developed using MADYMO (TNO Automotive Safety Solutions). The model incorporated improved pelvis and abdomen geometry and properties previously tested in a modified physical dummy. The model was calibrated and validated against four sled tests under two test conditions with and without submarining using a multi-objective optimization method. A sensitivity analysis using this validated child dummy model showed that dummy knee excursion, torso rotation angle, and the difference between head and knee excursions were good predictors for submarining status. It was also shown that restraint system design variables, such as lap belt angle, D-ring height, and seat coefficient of friction (COF), may have opposite effects on head and abdomen injury risks; therefore child dummies and dummy models capable of simulating submarining are crucial for future restraint system design optimization for young school-aged children. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. [An example of self-evaluation of a sense of achievement by students in 6-year pharmacy school with the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shingaki, Tomoteru; Koyanagi, Jyunichi; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Hirata, Takahiro; Ohta, Atsutane; Akimoto, Masayuki; Shirahata, Akira; Mitsumoto, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    In March 2012, the first students, finishing the newly introduced 6-year-course of pharmaceutical education, have graduated and gone out into the world. At this point, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) is going to revise the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education to be more suited for educating students to achieve their goal of becoming the clinical pharmacist standard defined by the revised School Education Act. Here we report the self-evaluation study based on the survey using questionnaire about a sense of achievement with Visual Analog Scales, regarding the fundamental quality as a pharmacist standard proposed by the Professional Activities Committee in the MEXT. The sample size of survey was about 600 of students studying in the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Josai International University (JIU) and the survey was carried out during the period of March-April in 2012. The study suggested that the majority of graduates were satisfied with the new education system and marked as a well-balanced quality to be a pharmacist standard, after completing the 6-year pharmaceutical education based on "the model core-curriculum". It would be worthwhile to perform this kind of survey continuously to monitor the student's self-evaluation of a sense of achievement to verify the effectiveness of 6-year-course pharmaceutical education based on the newly establishing core curriculum in Japan.

  9. The Year Without a Ski Season: An Analysis of the Winter of 2015 for Three Ski Resorts in Western Canada Using Historical and Simulation Model Forecasted Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Goode, J. D.; Pedersen, S.

    2015-12-01

    The winter of 2015 will go down as "the year without a ski season" for many ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada and the USA. During this winter season, a large area of the eastern North Pacific Ocean had extremely high sea surface temperatures. These high sea surface temperatures influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, in alpine environments precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow instead fell as rain. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winter of 2015 in greater detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Mount Washington, Cypress Mountain and Hemlock Valley. For these resorts, historical (1901 to 2013) and IPCC AR5 climate model forecasted climate data (RCP8.5 for 2025, 2055, and 2085) was generated for the variable winter degree days climate database ClimateBC. A value for winter degree days climate data at nearby meteorological stations for comparative analysis. For all three resorts, the winter of 2015 proved to be warmer than any individual year in the period 1901 to 2013. Interpolations involving the multi-model ensemble forecast means suggest that the climate associated with winter of 2015 will become the average normal for these resorts in only 35 to 45 years under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

  10. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  11. The influence of naturally-occurring organic acids on model estimates of lakewater acidification using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). Summary of research conducted during year 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Eilers, J.M. [E and S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States); Cosby, B.J. [Virginia Univ., Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Driscoll, C.T. [Syracuse Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Hemond, H.F. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Charles, D.F. [Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, PA (United States). Patrick Center for Environmental Research; Norton, S.A. [Maine Univ., Orono, ME (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences

    1993-03-05

    A project for the US Department of Energy, entitled ``Incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and Testing of the Revised Model UsingIndependent Data Sources`` was initiated by E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. in March, 1992. Major components of the project include: improving the MAGIC model by incorporating a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, and testing the revised model using data from paleolimnological hindcasts of preindustrial chemistry for 33 Adirondack Mountain lakes, and the results of whole-catchment artificial acidification projects in Maine and Norway. The ongoing research in this project involves development of an organic acid representation to be incorporated into the MAGIC modeland testing of the improved model using three independent data sources. The research during Year 1 has included conducting two workshops to agree on an approach for the organic acid modeling, developing the organic subroutine and incorporating it into MAGIC (Task 1), conducing MAGIC hindcasts for Adirondack lakes and comparing the results with paleolimnological reconstructions (Task 2), and conducting site visits to the manipulation project sites in Maine and Norway. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the work that has been conducted on this project during Year 1. Tasks 1 and 2 have now been completed.

  12. The natural history of cervical cancer in chinese women: results from an 11-year follow-up study in china using a multistate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shao-Kai; Kang, Le-Ni; Chang, Irene J; Zhao, Fang-Hui; Hu, Shang-Ying; Chen, Wen; Shi, Ju-Fang; Zhang, Xun; Pan, Qin-Jing; Li, Shu-Min; Qiao, You-Lin

    2014-07-01

    It is important to understand the natural history of cervical cancer, which has implications for cancer prevention and management. However, a dearth of studies on the long-term development of cervical cancer exists in China. We investigated the natural history of cervical cancer in Chinese women by creating a multistate model using 11 years of follow-up data from the Shanxi Province Cervical Cancer Screening Study I conducted from 1999 to 2010. In 1999, a total of 1,997 eligible women, ages 35 to 45 years, were enrolled in Xiangyuan County, Shanxi Province. Participants were followed up in 2005 and 2010, respectively. The average time a subject spent in CIN1 before transiting into another state was 1.4693 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1215-1.9251] and the average time a subject spent in CIN2 was 2.9822 years (95% CI: 1.9790-4.4938). A subject's transition probability from CIN1 to normal increased with time. However, the transition probability from CIN1 to CIN2 was relatively lower, with 3-, 5-, and 10-year transition probabilities of 0.1415, 0.1066, and 0.0437. Comparison of 5-year transition probabilities between CIN2 to normal/CIN1 and CIN2 to CIN3(+) yielded a ratio of 2.74. Women with CIN1 had a substantial tendency for regression. Similarly, women with CIN2 had a higher probability of regression to normal/CIN1 than progression to CIN3(+). Findings in this study may have significant implications for the development and evaluation of formal cervical cancer preventive strategies in China. This study may serve as a valuable reference to future research on other multistate cancer processes. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  13. Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

  14. Translating the Cognitive Model of PTSD to the Treatment of Very Young Children: A Single Case Study of an 8-Year-Old Motor Vehicle Accident Survivor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodall, Benjamin; Chadwick, Isobel; McKinnon, Anna; Werner-Seidler, Aliza; Meiser-Stedman, Richard; Smith, Patrick; Dalgleish, Tim

    2017-05-01

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a clinical condition that occurs after a discrete traumatic event, such as an accident or assault. Research into PTSD has primarily been adult-focused; however, there is a growing body of evidence evaluating the theory and treatment of PTSD in young children. Consequently, cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) interventions for PTSD in youth have been developed that focus on 3 core components of the cognitive model-a disorganized memory of the trauma, maladaptive appraisals of the trauma and its effects (meanings), and dysfunctional coping mechanisms (management). Here, we describe the extension of this treatment approach (termed CBT-3M) to very young children (3-8 years) through the case of Dylan, an 8-year-old motor vehicle accident survivor. This serves as an illustration of the underlying theory and its successful application. Further work is intended to provide evidence of the efficacy of this treatment via an ongoing treatment trial. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Variation in the amounts of selected volatiles in a model population of fragaria × ananassa Duch. As influenced by harvest year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbricht, Klaus; Ulrich, Detlef; Weiss, Kirsten; Grafe, Christine

    2011-02-09

    Volatile metabolites are a basis for sensory and resistance traits of Fragaria × ananassa . Stability of expression is important for the selection of cultivars. For the first time, the stability of volatiles in a strawberry population after cross-combination of two distinct cultivars ('Mieze Schindler' × 'Elsanta') has been investigated. In this work, environmentally caused variations in the synthesis of 18 volatiles were studied over two years using a model population of 158 clones. The stability varied throughout the F1 seedling population between the two years, defining stable and unstable genotypes with respect to volatile synthesis. Most of the stable genotypes exhibited low values in relative volatile concentration. Merely 6 stable volatiles were detected in the parental cultivars, whereas about 40% of the F1 progeny had up to 11 stable volatiles. Consequently, a higher stability in volatile synthesis can be achieved by breeding.

  16. Impact of Study Skills and Parent Education on First-Year GPA Among College Students With and Without ADHD: A Moderated Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormley, Matthew J; Pinho, Trevor; Pollack, Brittany; Puzino, Kristina; Franklin, Melanie K; Busch, Chelsea; DuPaul, George J; Weyandt, Lisa L; Anastopoulos, Arthur D

    2018-02-01

    To test if the relationship between ADHD and academic achievement is mediated by service utilization and/or study skills, and if these mediation effects are moderated by parental education level. A bootstrapping method within structural equation modeling was used with data from 355 first year college students meeting strict criteria for ADHD or clearly without ADHD to test the mediation and moderation effects. Study skills, but not service utilization, significantly mediated the relationship between ADHD status and GPA; however, this relationship was not significant among students with at least one parent holding a master's degree or higher. Among first year college students study skills may be a more salient predictor of educational outcomes relative to ADHD status. Additional research into support services for college students with ADHD is needed, however, results suggest interventions targeting study skills may hold particular promise for these students.

  17. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: evidence from 555 years of program experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

    2005-01-27

    Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  18. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahaim Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  19. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context. PMID:15676068

  20. Supporting Third Year Medical Students' Skill Acquisition and Self-Efficacy with Coping Models and Process Feedback during Laparoscopic Knot Tying Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Michael S; Kauffman, Douglas F

    2017-01-01

    Background: During the third year general surgery clerkship, medical students are required to develop laparoscopic knot-tying skills. Knot-tying skills studies often rely on objective variables (e.g., time, materials used, number of iterations) that lend themselves to correlational analysis of pre- and post-intervention skill level. This study differs by examining how instructional interventions-role modeling and feedback-affect medical students' skill acquisition and self-efficacy during a laparoscopic surgical simulation training session. Methods: Seventy-eight surgical clerkship students were assigned randomly to one cell of a 2X2 factorial design. Participants observed one of two types of role modeling (expert vs. coping) and received either process-oriented or outcome-oriented feedback during a 30-min laparoscopic training session. Participants also completed several surveys that assessed their interest in surgery and their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot tying. Results: Coping model groups tended to perform better on the knot tying task, though this was less the case in the presence of outcome feedback. Expert model groups slightly outperformed the coping model group on the peg transfer task, but in the presence of outcome feedback they reported the lowest satisfaction with their performance and the lowest self-efficacy for the knot tying task. The coping model combined with process feedback had a positive influence on students' efficiency in learning the task, on their satisfaction with their performance, and on their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot typing. Conclusions: Results are discussed relative to self-regulated learning theory.

  1. Transitions in cognitive test scores over 5 and 10 years in elderly people: Evidence for a model of age-related deficit accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rockwood Kenneth

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background On average, health worsens with age, but many people have periods of improvement. A stochastic model provides an excellent description of how such changes occur. Given that cognition also changes with age, we wondered whether the same model might also describe the accumulation of errors in cognitive test scores in community-dwelling older adults. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 8954 older people (aged 65+ at baseline from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging were followed for 10 years. Cognitive status was defined by the number of errors on the 100-point Modified Min-Mental State Examination. The error count was chosen to parallel the deficit count in the general model of aging, which is based on deficit accumulation. As with the deficit count, a Markov chain transition model was employed, with 4 parameters. Results On average, the chance of making errors increased linearly with the number of errors present at each time interval. Changes in cognitive states were described with high accuracy (R2 = 0.96 by a modified Poisson distribution, using four parameters: the background chance of accumulating additional errors, the chance of incurring more or fewer errors, given the existing number, and the corresponding background and incremental chances of dying. Conclusion The change in the number of errors in a cognitive test corresponded to a general model that also summarizes age-related changes in deficits. The model accounts for both improvement and deterioration and appears to represent a clinically relevant means of quantifying how various aspects of health status change with age.

  2. Use of a 3D Skull Model to Improve Accuracy in Cranioplasty for Autologous Flap Resorption in a 3-Year-Old Child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maduri, Rodolfo; Viaroli, Edoardo; Levivier, Marc; Daniel, Roy T; Messerer, Mahmoud

    2017-01-01

    Cranioplasty is considered a simple reconstructive procedure, usually performed in a single stage. In some clinical conditions, such as in children with multifocal flap osteolysis, it could represent a surgical challenge. In these patients, the partially resorbed autologous flap should be removed and replaced with a precustomed prosthesis which should perfectly match the expected bone defect. We describe the technique used for a navigated cranioplasty in a 3-year-old child with multifocal autologous flap osteolysis. We decided to perform a cranioplasty using a custom-made hydroxyapatite porous ceramic flap. The prosthesis was produced with an epoxy resin 3D skull model of the patient, which included a removable flap corresponding to the planned cranioplasty. Preoperatively, a CT scan of the 3D skull model was performed without the removable flap. The CT scan images of the 3D skull model were merged with the preoperative 3D CT scan of the patient and navigated during the cranioplasty to define with precision the cranioplasty margins. After removal of the autologous resorbed flap, the hydroxyapatite prosthesis matched perfectly with the skull defect. The anatomical result was excellent. Thus, the implementation of cranioplasty with image merge navigation of a 3D skull model may improve cranioplasty accuracy, allowing precise anatomic reconstruction in complex skull defect cases. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  3. Factors associated with mothers' beliefs and practices concerning injury prevention in under five-year children, based on health belief model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poorolajal, Jalal; Cheraghi, Parvin; Hazavehei, Seyed Mohammad Mahdi; Rezapur-Shahkolai, Forouzan

    2012-05-29

    Injuries are the first leading but predictable, avoidable and preventable cause of death among under five-year children worldwide. The present study aimed to identify the factors associated with mothers' beliefs and practices concerning injury prevention in under five-year children. This cross-sectional study was conducted from August to October 2011 in Hamadan County, the west of Iran, enrolling 580 mothers with at least one under five-year child. The data collection instrument was a questionnaire including 85 questions regarding demographic characteristics; knowledge; practices; Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs; and history of injury occurrence among the children. The reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated by a pilot study using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Data had been collected through interview with mothers, by trained interviewers. Almost 22.59% of mothers reported at least one injury in their under five-year children. Of 131 injuries occurred, 85 cases were mild, 23 cases were moderate, and 23 cases were severe. About 52.67% of injuries occurred in boys, 37.41% in less than one-year children, 73.28% at home, and 61.07% when the children were playing game. Fall (24.28%), burn (20.61%) and poisoning (14.50%) were the common causes of injuries. There was a positive correlation between mothers' practices and knowledge, perceived benefits, cues to action and self-efficacy and a negative correlation between mothers' practices and perceived susceptibility, severity, and barriers. Knowledge, perceived severity, perceived barriers, cues to action, and self-efficacy of mothers toward the injuries in children were among the most important predictive constructs, which may be used for planning educating programs.

  4. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  5. [Fertility behavior in Quebec, family allowances, and taxes: results and simulations with a discrete choice model for the years 1975-1987].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, P; Brouillette, L; Felteau, C

    1994-12-01

    "We suppose that women (couples), who are less than 40 years old, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation.... We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of 'married' women in Quebec to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method.... This empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal and transfer policies in favor of families with dependent children on fertility, [women's] labor force participation and the importance of spending costs for the two levels of government." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  6. Probabilistic modelling to assess exposure to three artificial sweeteners of young Irish patients aged 1-3 years with PKU and CMPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, Aaron J; Pigat, Sandrine; O'Mahony, Cian; Gibney, Michael J; McKevitt, Aideen I

    2016-11-01

    The choice of suitable normal foods is limited for individuals with particular medical conditions, e.g., inborn errors of metabolism (phenylketonuria - PKU) or severe cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA). Patients may have dietary restrictions and exclusive or partial replacement of specific food groups with specially formulated products to meet particular nutrition requirements. Artificial sweeteners are used to improve the appearance and palatability of such food products to avoid food refusal and ensure dietary adherence. Young children have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes for additives than adults due to higher food intakes kg -1 body weight. The Budget Method and EFSA's Food Additives Intake Model (FAIM) are not equipped to assess partial dietary replacement with special formulations as they are built on data from dietary surveys of consumers without special medical requirements impacting the diet. The aim of this study was to explore dietary exposure modelling as a means of estimating the intake of artificial sweeteners by young PKU and CMPA patients aged 1-3 years. An adapted validated probabilistic model (FACET) was used to assess patients' exposure to artificial sweeteners. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in Ireland from the National Preschool and Nutrition Survey (NPNS, 2010-11). Specially formulated foods for special medical purposes were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. Inclusion was based on recommendations for adequate protein intake and dietary adherence data. Exposure assessment results indicated that young children with PKU and CMPA have higher relative average intakes of artificial sweeteners than healthy young children. The reliability and robustness of the model in the estimation of patient additive exposures was further investigated and provides the first exposure estimates for these special populations.

  7. Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

    2014-05-01

    A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

  8. The Effects of Model-Based Educational Intervention on Self-medication Behavior in Mothers with Children less than 2- year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostam Heydartabar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self-medication by people is one of the major issues in the world that can be lead to numerous medical and economic problems, this especially issue in children under 2 years who are at the age of growth and development have great importance. The aim of this study was investigate the effects of model-based educational interventions on self-medication behavior in mothers with children under 2 years of age who referred to the health centers of Firoozkooh city (Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was quasi - experimental interventional study. The study population consisted of mothers with children under 2 years old referring to health centers of the Firoozkooh city, Iran. The data collection tool was researcher made questionnaire which its validity and reliability was assessed than was used. The required information was collected before and after the educational intervention. Then 4 months after the educational intervention, evaluation was done and data analysis was using SPSS-20. Results: Significant difference was not found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, self-efficacy with performance (self-medication before the educational intervention (P>0.05. But after the educational intervention, statistically significant difference was found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, and self-efficacy with performance (P

  9. Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the {proportional_to}1,500-year cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dima, Mihai [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); University of Bucharest, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Physics, P.O. Box 11440, Magurele, Bucharest (Romania); Lohmann, Gerrit [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)

    2009-02-15

    Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a {proportional_to}1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct {proportional_to}1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes. (orig.)

  10. The Effect of Education on Preventive Behaviors of Failure to Thrive in Mothers with Children Aged One to Five Years: Applied Health Belief Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahtab Navabi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: One of the common and important health problems is failure to thrive in childhood. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of education on preventive behaviors of failure to thrive in mothers with children based on health belief model. Materials and Methods: This study is an interventional one in which 100 mothers with children one to five years involved (samples divided into two case and control groups, each of 50 sampling was done by a simple random method. For collecting information, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the health belief model and performance check list were used. Then, case group was trained for one month. 3 months after training, data were gathered and analyzed by Spss20 software. In addition to descriptive statistics, tests such as Chi-square, paired t-test and independent T-test were used. Results: The mean age of case and control was 29.98±5.51 and 25.35±5.30 years old, respectively. The average age of children was 23.31 ± 13.14 and 27.55 ± 14.01months, respectively. Before the intervention, no significant difference was seen between groups. The average score in case group before intervention was as: knowledge(31.87±14.24, perceived susceptibility(64.23±5.86, perceived severity(64.41±9.34, perceived benefits(61.75±6.79, perceived barriers(67.91±8.14, self-efficacy(68.00±7.87, cues to action(44.53±6.82 and action(70.00±9.77. However, after the intervention, significant differences between groups in all variables were obserred. Conclusion: According to the results, education based on health belief model is recommended for promoting preventive behaviors of failure to thrive.

  11. Modeled and measured glacier change and related glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance and water years 2006 and 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance years 2006 and 2007. Mass balances were computed with assistance from a new model that was based on the works of other glacier researchers. The model, which was developed for mass balance practitioners, coupled selected meteorological and glaciological data to systematically estimate daily mass balance at selected glacier sites. The North Cascade Range in the vicinity of South Cascade Glacier accumulated approximately average to above average winter snow packs during 2006 and 2007. Correspondingly, the balance years 2006 and 2007 maximum winter snow mass balances of South Cascade Glacier, 2.61 and 3.41 meters water equivalent, respectively, were approximately equal to or more positive (larger) than the average of such balances since 1959. The 2006 glacier summer balance, -4.20 meters water equivalent, was among the four most negative since 1959. The 2007 glacier summer balance, -3.63 meters water equivalent, was among the 14 most negative since 1959. The glacier continued to lose mass during 2006 and 2007, as it commonly has since 1953, but the loss was much smaller during 2007 than during 2006. The 2006 glacier net balance, -1.59 meters water equivalent, was 1.02 meters water equivalent more negative (smaller) than the average during 1953-2005. The 2007 glacier net balance, -0.22 meters water equivalent, was 0.37 meters water equivalent less negative (larger) than the average during 1953-2006. The 2006 accumulation area ratio was less than 0.10, owing to isolated patches of accumulated snow that endured the 2006 summer season. The 2006 equilibrium line altitude was higher than the glacier. The 2007 accumulation area ratio and equilibrium line altitude were 0.60 and 1,880 meters, respectively. Accompanying the glacier mass losses were retreat of the terminus and reduction of total glacier area. The

  12. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in During a Five-Year Period (2010-2014 by Using AirQ Model

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    Majid Kermani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Air pollution in large cities is one of the main difficulties that have harmful effects on humans and the environment and cause various diseases including cardiovascular disease. So, present study with aim of Estimation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in during a five-year period (2010-2014 by using AirQ Model were performed. Materials and Methods: This Study was a descriptive–analytic at first, hourly data of pollutants were taken from the environmental protection agency Tehran and Air Quality Control Company and validated according to the WHO guidelines. Required statistical parameters calculated for health effect quantifying and finally processed data converted to input and requirements AirQ model data and health effects quantifying were performed using this model. The final results on deaths due to cardiovascular disease were presented in tables and graphs format. Results: Results showed annual average concentration of CO in Tehran in 2010-2014 are 49, 31, 11,12,21,76 mg/ m3 respectively. In addition, the number of cardiovascular deaths in 2011-2015 is 52,37,29,31,42 respectively Conclusion: According to the results, CO as well as other pollutants can adversely affect human health. Due to high levels of air pollution and its related health consequences, particularly cardiovascular disease, should take appropriate measures to reduce air pollution.

  13. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12-year crop succession: impact of soil hydraulic and vegetation properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J. C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Buis, S.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2015-07-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain terms in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs (Interaction Sol-Biosphere-Atmosphere) simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at the field scale over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamics of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key parameters which drive the simulation of ET, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. A sensitivity analysis is first conducted to quantify the relative contribution of each parameter on ET simulation over 12 years. The impact of the estimation method used to retrieve the soil parameters (pedotransfer function, laboratory and field methods) on ET is then analysed. The benefit of representing the variations in time of the rooting depth and wilting point is evaluated. Finally, the propagation of uncertainties in the soil parameters on ET simulations is quantified through a Monte Carlo analysis and compared with the uncertainties triggered by the mesophyll conductance which is a key above-ground driver of the stomatal conductance. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This results in a high sensitivity of simulated evapotranspiration to uncertainties in the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at saturation, both of which drive the simulation of soil evaporation. Field capacity was proved to be the most

  14. Performance of STICS model to predict rainfed corn evapotranspiration and biomass evaluated for 6 years between 1995 and 2006 using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes and ancillary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattey, Elizabeth; Jégo, Guillaume; Bourgeois, Gaétan

    2010-05-01

    Verifying the performance of process-based crop growth models to predict evapotranspiration and crop biomass is a key component of the adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate variations. STICS, developed by INRA, was part of the models selected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to be implemented for environmental assessment studies on climate variations, because of its built-in ability to assimilate biophysical descriptors such as LAI derived from satellite imagery and its open architecture. The model prediction of shoot biomass was calibrated using destructive biomass measurements over one season, by adjusting six cultivar parameters and three generic plant parameters to define two grain corn cultivars adapted to the 1000-km long Mixedwood Plains ecozone. Its performance was then evaluated using a database of 40 years-sites of corn destructive biomass and yield. In this study we evaluate the temporal response of STICS evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation predictions against estimates using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes. The flux tower was located in an experimental farm south of Ottawa and measurements carried out over corn fields in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2006. Daytime and nighttime fluxes were QC/QA and gap-filled separately. Soil respiration was partitioned to calculate the corn net daily CO2 uptake, which was converted into dry biomass. Out of the six growing seasons, three (1995, 1998, 2002) had water stress periods during corn grain filling. Year 2000 was cool and wet, while 1996 had heat and rainfall distributed evenly over the season and 2006 had a wet spring. STICS can predict evapotranspiration using either crop coefficients, when wind speed and air moisture are not available, or resistance. The first approach provided higher prediction for all the years than the resistance approach and the flux measurements. The dynamic of evapotranspiration prediction of STICS was very good for the growing seasons without

  15. Eight New Luminous z > 6 Quasars Selected via SED Model Fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, S.L.; et al.

    2017-01-17

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the ESO NTT and Gemini South telescopes of eight new 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with z$_{AB}$ < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any star-galaxy morphological criteria from 1533 deg$^{2}$ using SED model fitting to photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), the VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data was fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift dependent Lyman-{\\alpha} forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using on a SED-model based $\\chi^{2}$-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST, Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100% without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being over run by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimating technique that gives comparable accuracy to MgII and CO based redshift estimators. We find two z $\\sim$ 6.2 quasars with HII near zone sizes < 3 proper Mpc which could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages < 10$^6$ - 10$^7$ years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDESJ0224-4711 has J$_{AB}$ = 19.75 is the second most luminous quasar known with z > 6.5.

  16. Testing the four-factor model of personality vulnerability to alcohol misuse: a three-wave, one-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackinnon, Sean P; Kehayes, Ivy-Lee L; Clark, Roderick; Sherry, Simon B; Stewart, Sherry H

    2014-12-01

    The 4-factor model of personality vulnerability identifies 4 personality risk factors for alcohol misuse: hopelessness, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity, and sensation seeking. These personality traits are associated with distinct mechanisms and motivations for alcohol misuse. Individuals high in hopelessness drink to regulate dysphoric affect, while those high in anxiety sensitivity drink to reduce anxiety and to conform to peer expectations. Individuals high in sensation seeking are highly sensitive to the rewarding properties of alcohol, and misuse alcohol to maximize enjoyment. Impulsivity is a broad risk factor contributing to all drinking motives. We hypothesized that personality vulnerabilities would indirectly predict alcohol quantity and problems through specific drinking motives theorized by the 4-factor model. The present study tested hypotheses using a 3-wave, 1-year longitudinal study of undergraduate drinkers (N = 302). Data were analyzed using multilevel path analysis. Hopelessness and impulsivity were positively related to drinking motives in the expected fashion. Anxiety sensitivity was related to coping-anxiety and conformity motives only in the between-subjects model (partially supporting hypotheses), while sensation seeking was generally unrelated to all drinking motives and alcohol outcomes (failing to support hypotheses). Enhancement motives predicted alcohol quantity and problems at both levels, coping-depression motives predicted alcohol problems at the between-subjects level only, and coping-anxiety, conformity, and social motives failed to predict alcohol outcomes beyond other motives. Overall, this study partially supports the 4-factor model, with the strongest support emerging for impulsivity and hopelessness. This study suggests that personality traits such as impulsivity and hopelessness may be important targets in prevention and treatment with undergraduate drinkers.

  17. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, S. L.; McMahon, R. G.; Martini, P.; Banerji, M.; Auger, M.; Hewett, P. C.; Koposov, S. E.; Gibbons, S. L. J.; Gonzalez-Solares, E.; Ostrovski, F.; Tie, S. S.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Burke, D. L.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; da Costa, L. N.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Doel, P.; Evrard, A. E.; Finley, D. A.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gaztanaga, E.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; James, D. J.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Miller, C. J.; Miquel, R.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Tucker, D. L.; Walker, A. R.; Wester, W.

    2017-07-01

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the European Southern Observatory New Technology Telescope (NTT) and Gemini South telescopes of eight new, and the rediscovery of two previously known, 6.0 energy distribution (SED) model fitting to photometric data from Dark Energy Survey (g, r, I, z, Y), VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data were fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift-dependent Ly α forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low-mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using an SED-model-based χ2-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST and Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100 per cent without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants, the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being overrun by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimator that gives comparable accuracy to Mg II and CO-based redshift estimators. We find two z ˜ 6.2 quasars with H II near zone sizes ≤3 proper Mpc that could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages ≲ 106-107 years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDES J0224-4711 has JAB = 19.75 and is the second most luminous quasar known with z ≥ 6.5.

  19. Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim; Hermann, Albert J.; Gibson, Georgina A.; Punt, André E.; Wiese, Francis K.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Ferm, Nissa; Buckley, Troy W.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A.; Ianelli, James N.; Murphy, James; Dalton, Michael; Cheng, Wei; Wang, Muyin; Hedstrom, Kate; Bond, Nicholas A.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Boyd, Charlotte

    2016-12-01

    We combined field data and the output from a climate-to-fish coupled biophysical model to calculate weekly climatologies and 1971-2009 time series of physical and biological drivers for 16 distinct regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. We focus on spatial trends and physical-biological interactions as a framework to compare model output to localized or season-specific observations. Data on pollock (≥8 cm) diet were used to evaluate energy flows and zooplankton dynamics predicted by the model. Model validation shows good agreement to sea-ice cover albeit with a one month delay in ice retreat. Likewise, the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in the model were delayed approximately one month in the south and extend further into summer, but the relative timing between the spring and fall bloom peaks was consistent with observations. Ice-related primary producers may shift the timing of the spring bloom maximum biomass earlier in years when sea ice was still present after mid-March in the southern regions. Including the effects of explicit, dynamic fish predation on zooplankton in the model shifts the seasonal spring peak and distribution of zooplankton later in the year relative to simulations with implicit predation dependent only on zooplankton biomass and temperature; the former capturing the dynamic demand on zooplankton prey by fish. Pollock diets based on stomach samples collected in late fall and winter from 1982-2013 show overwintering euphausiids and small pollock as key prey items in the outer and southern Bering Sea shelf; a characteristic not currently present in the model. The model captured two large-scale gradients, supported by field data, characterizing the overall dynamics: 1) inshore to off-shelf physical and biological differences with a gradient in inter-annual variability from higher frequency inshore to lower frequency offshore; and 2) latitudinal gradients in the timing of events. The combined effects of length of day

  20. Modeling soil organic carbon stock after 10 years of cover crops in Mediterranean vineyards: improving ANN prediction by digital terrain analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Papa, Giuseppe; Novara, Agata; Santoro, Antonino; Gristina, Luciano

    2014-05-01

    Estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock after Agro Environment Measures adoption are strategically for national and regional scale. Uncertainty in estimates also represents a very important parameter in terms of evaluation of the exact costs and agro environment payments to farmers. In this study we modeled the variation of SOC stock after 10-year cover crop adoption in a vine growing area of South-Eastern Sicily. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in SOC stocks. A total 100 paired sites (i.e. two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (Ap soil horizons, circa 0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot to obtain a mean value of organic carbon concentration for each plot. The variation of soil organic carbon (SOCv) for each plot was calculated by differences between concentrations of the plot subjected to cover crops (SOC10) and the relative plot subjected to traditional agronomic practices (SOC0). The feasibility of using artificial neural networks as a method to predict soil organic carbon stock variation and the contribution of digital terrain analysis to improve the prediction were tested. We randomly subdivided the experimental values of SOC-stock difference in 80 learning samples and 20 test samples for model validation. SOCv was strongly correlated to the SOC0 concentration. Model validation using only SOCv as unique covariate showed a training and test perfection of 0.724 and 0.871 respectively. We hypothesized that terrain-driven hydrological flow patterns, mass-movement and local micro-climatic factors could be responsible processes contributing for SOC redistributions, thus affecting soil carbon stock in time. Terrain attributes were derived by digital terrain analysis from the 10 m DEM of the study area. A total of 37 terrain attributes were calculated and submitted to statistical feature selection. The Chi-square ranking indicated only 4 significant covariates among the terrain attributes (slope height

  1. Model for assessing the efficiency of biologic drugs in the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis for one year in clinical practice in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, L; López-Ferrer, A; Vilarrasa, E; García, I; Fernández-del Olmo, R

    2016-01-01

    Most economic evaluations in the literature on the subject of biologic therapy for the treatment of psoriasis do not reflect normal clinical practice or consider the cost of patient management. The objective of the present study is to establish a model for assessing the efficiency of biologic therapies in the treatment of psoriasis taking into account the cost of managing treatment which, in routine clinical practice, depends on patient response. We developed a model based on a decision tree that incorporates the probability of treatment response or failure with adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, and ustekinumab after 24 weeks of therapy (end of the induction phase). The probability in each case was calculated using data from a meta-analysis. The following direct health costs were taken into account: the cost of drugs and their administration in euro (2015). Our analysis was based on the cost of 12 months of treatment administered in a hospital setting. According to the proposed model, the mean cost per year by initial treatment strategy was lowest for patients who started treatment with ustekinumab, although the percentage cost difference between ustekinumab and infliximab or adalimumab was less than 3%. With a fixed budget of €1,000,000, the initial treatment option that would achieve success in the largest number of patients for one year would, according to this model, be ustekinumab (66 patients), followed by infliximab (n = 62), adalimumab (n = 59), and etanercept (n = 50). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the reliability of these results. However, considering the confidence intervals of the incremental efficacy observed in the meta-analysis, the differences found are probably not significant in all the possible binary comparisons. Likewise, possible differences in actual price structures, populations, and the strategies and therapeutic objectives of each hospital could all give rise to considerable variations in real life. The cost of managing treatment in

  2. Model Novaes for analysis of the productivity and efficiency of logistics operators in Brazil: a study of its applicability for the years 2005 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Rodrigues Junqueira

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a proposal to upgrade the production function to evaluate the productivity and efficiency of Brazilians logistics operators, which was developed by Novaes in his study in 2000. The goal was identify if and how the variables used continued to explain the behavior of productivity of these companies. To achieve that goal, tests were performed with data of years for 2005 and 2006, provided by the Revista Tecnologística, and used the same statistical techniques developed in the previous study, the multiple regression. The previous study intended to help the competitive advantage of logistics operators attentive to the problem, through the methodology of analysis of competitors and to customers of this service along the supply chain management, interested in identifying companies with greater efficiency. The results indicate that the model developed by Novaes is not valid for the current reality of these companies. Key-words: productivity function; logistic operators; analysis of competitors and suppliers.

  3. Multi-year downscaling application of two-way coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over east Asia for regional climate and air quality modeling: model evaluation and aerosol direct effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Chaopeng; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yang; Tang, Youhua; Tong, Daniel; He, Kebin

    2017-06-01

    In this study, a regional coupled climate-chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established by linking the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the regional two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model for the purpose of comprehensive assessments of regional climate change and air quality and their interactions within one modeling framework. The modeling system was applied over east Asia for a multi-year climatological application during 2006-2010, driven with CESM downscaling data under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5), along with a short-term air quality application in representative months in 2013 that was driven with a reanalysis dataset. A comprehensive model evaluation was conducted against observations from surface networks and satellite observations to assess the model's performance. This study presents the first application and evaluation of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model for climatological simulations using the dynamical downscaling technique. The model was able to satisfactorily predict major meteorological variables. The improved statistical performance for the 2 m temperature (T2) in this study (with a mean bias of -0.6 °C) compared with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-models might be related to the use of the regional model WRF and the bias-correction technique applied for CESM downscaling. The model showed good ability to predict PM2. 5 in winter (with a normalized mean bias (NMB) of 6.4 % in 2013) and O3 in summer (with an NMB of 18.2 % in 2013) in terms of statistical performance and spatial distributions. Compared with global models that tend to underpredict PM2. 5 concentrations in China, WRF-CMAQ was able to capture the high PM2. 5 concentrations in urban areas. In general, the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model performed well for both climatological and air quality applications. The coupled

  4. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  5. Health beliefs about lifestyle habits differ between patients and spouses 1 year after a cardiac event - a qualitative analysis based on the Health Belief Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, Anita Kärner; Nilsson, Staffan; Jaarsma, Tiny; Tingström, Pia

    2017-06-01

    Spousal concordance on risk factors and lifestyle habits exists and can partly be explained by patients' and spouses' health beliefs and underuse of cardiac rehabilitation. However, there have been very few qualitative comparisons of health beliefs between patients and spouses after a cardiac event. To examine and qualitatively compare the health beliefs of patients with coronary heart disease and their spouses about lifestyle habits, 1 year after the cardiac event. Explorative and descriptive. Semi-structured focus group interviews were conducted with patients (n = 14) 1 year after a cardiac event, as well as individual interviews with spouses (n = 8). The transcriptions underwent a deductive qualitative content analysis, within the framework of the Health Belief Model. Patients' and spouses' health beliefs about lifestyle habits qualitatively differed in most predetermined main analytical categories of the Health Belief Model. The patients relied more on their own capacity and the healthcare system than on collaboration with their spouses who instead emphasised the importance of mutual activities to establish lifestyle habits. The spouses therefore experienced problems with different family preferences compared to the patients' wishes. Moreover, only patients believed supervised exercise was beneficial for risk reduction of coronary heart disease and they related barriers for medication to a self-healing body and a meaningless life without relatives and old habits. Patients and spouses agreed that despite the severity of illness, life was captured and that normalisation to a life as usual was possible. The patients' and spouses' qualitatively different health beliefs regarding health-related behaviours imply a new approach. Nurses and associated professionals need to follow-up patients' and spouses' in primary health care to support them in a tailored way, for example in problem-based sessions. Recognition and understanding of their different views and otherness

  6. Pre-entry Characteristics, Perceived Social Support, Adjustment and Academic Achievement in First-Year Spanish University Students: A Path Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, María Soledad; Tinajero, Carolina; Páramo, María Fernanda

    2017-11-17

    Transition to university is a multifactorial process to which scarce consideration has been given in Spain, despite this being one of the countries with the highest rates of academic failure and attrition within the European Union. The present study proposes an empirical model for predicting Spanish students' academic achievement at university by considering pre-entry characteristics, perceived social support and adaptation to university, in a sample of 300 traditional first-year university students. The findings of the path analysis showed that pre-university achievement and academic and personal-emotional adjustment were direct predictors of academic achievement. Furthermore, gender, parents' education and family support were indirect predictors of academic achievement, mediated by pre-university grades and adjustment to university. The current findings supporting evidence that academic achievement in first-year Spanish students is the cumulative effect of pre-entry characteristics and process variables, key factors that should be taken into account in designing intervention strategies involving families and that establish stronger links between research findings and university policies.

  7. Three year stability of Five-Factor Model personality traits in relation to changes in symptom levels in patients with schizophrenia or related disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyette, Lindy-Lou; Nederlof, Jan; Meijer, Carin; de Boer, Froukje; de Haan, Lieuwe

    2015-09-30

    Five-Factor Model (FFM) personality traits are related to a wide range of clinical outcome in patients with psychotic disorders. However, it is not sufficiently clear whether psychotic illness, particularly fluctuation in negative symptoms and psychotic relapse, affects personality. The current study examined the 3-year temporal stability of FFM traits in 91 patients with non-affective psychotic disorders with a maximum duration of illness of 10 years and 32 control subjects without a (family member with) a diagnosis of psychotic illness. In patients, change in negative symptoms predicted changes in Neuroticism and (inversely) in Extraversion and Openness. However, when correcting for depressive symptoms, negative symptoms no longer predicted change in any FFM trait. Clinical characteristics, such as psychotic relapse, were also not found to be related to change in FFM traits. Patients showed a slight increase in Conscientiousness levels, the other FFM traits showed mean-level stability. Rank-order stability of the FFM traits was moderate to strong, although weaker for Neuroticism in patients. Our findings indicate that psychotic symptoms exert limited effect on the stability of FFM traits in patients with psychotic disorders. Consistent with general population findings, one should guard against state-trait confusion between Neuroticism/Extraversion and depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Two-year impact of the Spanish smoking law on exposure to secondhand smoke: evidence of the failure of the 'Spanish model'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Maria J; Nebot, Manel; Schiaffino, Anna; Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Fu, Marcela; Ariza, Carles; Muñoz, Gloria; Fernández, Esteve

    2012-07-01

    Studies evaluating the long-term impact of smoking laws on secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure using airborne markers are scarce. This study aimed to assess the long-term impact of the Spanish smoking law on SHS levels, using a specific and objective marker. Follow-up study, measuring vapour-phase nicotine levels before the implementation of the law and 6, 12 and 24 months after the initial assessment. A total of 443 samples were taken at baseline in eight different regions in offices in the public administration, private sector, universities and hospitality venues. Two years after the law was implemented, the nicotine concentration decreased by a minimum of 60% in public administration, university and private sector offices, as well as in venues where smoking was totally banned. However, nicotine levels significantly increased by 40% in hospitality venues allowing smoking. No significant differences were found in hospitality venues with areas for smokers and non-smokers or in pubs and discotheques. Two years after the smoking law came into force, levels of SHS exposure in the workplace were significantly lower than before the law was implemented. Importantly, however, SHS levels were even higher than before the law was implemented in venues still allowing smoking. The data obtained in this study clearly show that the 'Spanish model' is not protecting the health of hospitality workers and that a complete ban is required. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of compliance with smoking laws over time.

  9. Three-dimensional biometric study of palatine rugae in children with a mixed-model analysis: a 9-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hong-Kyun; Moon, Sung-Chul; Lee, Shin-Jae; Park, Young-Seok

    2012-05-01

    The palatine rugae have been suggested as stable reference points for superimposing 3-dimensional virtual models before and after orthodontic treatment. We investigated 3-dimensional changes in the palatine rugae of children over 9 years. Complete dental stone casts were biennially prepared for 56 subjects (42 girls, 14 boys) aged from 6 to 14 years. Using 3-dimensional laser scanning and reconstruction software, virtual casts were constructed. Medial and lateral points of the first anterior 3 rugae were defined as the 3-dimensional landmarks. The length of each ruga and the distance between the end points of the rugae were measured in virtual 3-dimensional space. The measurement changes over time were analyzed by using the mixed-effect method for longitudinal data. There were slight increases in the linear measurements in the rugae areas: the lengths of the rugae and the distances between them during the observation period. However, the amounts of the increments were relatively small when compared with the initial values and individual random variability. Although age affected the linear dimensions significantly, it was not clinically significant; the rugae were relatively stable. The use of the palatine rugae as reference points for superimposing and evaluating changes during orthodontic treatment was thought to be possible with special cautions. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. The attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder model for traumatic dental injuries: a critical review and update of the last 10 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabuncuoglu, Osman; Irmak, Mustafa Yasin

    2017-04-01

    It has been more than 10 years since the proposal of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) model as an explanatory construct for traumatic dental injuries (TDIs) in children. The aim of this review was to address developments in the study of the issue after 2005-2016. A systematic literature search covering the period from 2005 to 2016 was conducted on PubMed, the Cochrane library and Google Scholar using relevant keywords. Fourteen studies exploring the relationship between ADHD and TDIs from 2005 and onward (including the proposal paper) were identified. Of the 12 controlled studies, nine reported confirming findings for a link with ADHD in the occurrence of TDIs. More than one-third of all children with ADHD may suffer from TDIs. In ADHD children, the most common types of injury were uncomplicated/complicated crown fractures and subluxation of maxillary central incisors resulting from falls and collisions. There is also evidence that ADHD represents an independent risk factor other than the well-established risk factor of incisor overjet. Over the last 10 years, convincing evidence has accumulated that ADHD is an important and common risk factor for TDIs. Increased awareness and side-by-side work of medical, dental and mental professionals at both clinical and research settings are necessary. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Growth and Mortality Outcomes for Different Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Criteria in Children Ages 1-5 Years: A Causal Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Davies, Mary-Ann; Malateste, Karen; Renner, Lorna; Sawry, Shobna; N'Gbeche, Sylvie; Technau, Karl-Günter; Eboua, François; Tanser, Frank; Sygnaté-Sy, Haby; Phiri, Sam; Amorissani-Folquet, Madeleine; Cox, Vivian; Koueta, Fla; Chimbete, Cleophas; Lawson-Evi, Annette; Giddy, Janet; Amani-Bosse, Clarisse; Wood, Robin; Egger, Matthias; Leroy, Valeriane

    2016-03-01

    There is limited evidence regarding the optimal timing of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children. We conducted a causal modeling analysis in children ages 1-5 years from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS West/Southern-Africa collaboration to determine growth and mortality differences related to different CD4-based treatment initiation criteria, age groups, and regions. ART-naïve children of ages 12-59 months at enrollment with at least one visit before ART initiation and one follow-up visit were included. We estimated 3-year growth and cumulative mortality from the start of follow-up for different CD4 criteria using g-computation. About one quarter of the 5,826 included children was from West Africa (24.6%).The median (first; third quartile) CD4% at the first visit was 16% (11%; 23%), the median weight-for-age z-scores and height-for-age z-scores were -1.5 (-2.7; -0.6) and -2.5 (-3.5; -1.5), respectively. Estimated cumulative mortality was higher overall, and growth was slower, when initiating ART at lower CD4 thresholds. After 3 years of follow-up, the estimated mortality difference between starting ART routinely irrespective of CD4 count and starting ART if either CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4% <25% was 0.2% (95% CI = -0.2%; 0.3%), and the difference in the mean height-for-age z-scores of those who survived was -0.02 (95% CI = -0.04; 0.01). Younger children ages 1-2 and children in West Africa had worse outcomes. Our results demonstrate that earlier treatment initiation yields overall better growth and mortality outcomes, although we could not show any differences in outcomes between immediate ART and delaying until CD4 count/% falls below 750/25%.

  12. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C, and nitrogen (N stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species–enzyme–C∕N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C∕N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG, N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases. The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01–2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99–2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait., increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22–1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native

  14. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoqi; Wang, Shen S. J.; Chen, Chengrong

    2017-12-01

    Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA) to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species-enzyme-C/N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C/N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG), N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP) and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases). The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01-2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99-2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait.), increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22-1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native coniferous tree species like hoop pine and

  15. Concussion Characteristics in High School Football by Helmet Age/Recondition Status, Manufacturer, and Model: 2008-2009 Through 2012-2013 Academic Years in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Christy L; McKenzie, Lara B; Ferketich, Amy K; Andridge, Rebecca; Xiang, Huiyun; Comstock, R Dawn

    2016-06-01

    Football helmets used by high school athletes in the United States should meet the National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment performance standards. Despite differences in interior padding and exterior shells, all football helmets should provide comparable protection against concussions. Yet, debate continues on whether differences in the rates or severity of concussions exist based on helmet age/recondition status, manufacturer, or model. To investigate whether high school football concussion characteristics varied by helmet age/recondition status, manufacturer, and model. Descriptive epidemiological study. High school football concussion and helmet data were collected from academic years 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 as part of the National High School Sports-Related Injury Surveillance Study. The certified athletic trainers of participating schools submitted athlete-exposure (AE) and injury information weekly. Participating schools reported 2900 football concussions during 3,528,790 AEs for an overall rate of 8.2 concussions per 10,000 AEs. Concussion rates significantly increased from 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 overall (P = .006) as well as in competition (P = .027) and practice (P = .023). Characteristics of concussed football players (ie, mean number of symptoms, specific concussion symptoms, symptom resolution time, and time until return to play) were similar among players wearing new helmets when compared with reconditioned helmets. Fewer players wearing an old/not reconditioned helmet had concussion symptoms resolve within 1 day compared with players wearing a new helmet. Despite differences in the manufacturers and models of helmets worn by all high school football players compared with players who sustained a concussion, the mean number of concussion symptoms, specific concussion symptoms, symptom resolution time, and time until return to play were similar for concussions sustained by football players wearing the most common helmet

  16. Teaching programming and modelling skills to first-year earth & environmental science undergraduates: outcomes and lessons learned from a pilot project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, J. A.; Brewer, C.; O'Brien, G.

    2017-12-01

    Computing and programming are rapidly becoming necessary skills for earth and environmental scientists. Scientists in both academia and industry must be able to manipulate increasingly large datasets, create plots and 3-D visualisations of observations, and interpret outputs from complex numerical models, among other tasks. However, these skills are rarely taught as a compulsory part of undergraduate earth science curricula. In 2016, the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences at the University of Wollongong began a pilot program to integrate introductory programming and modelling skills into the required first-year core curriculum for all undergraduates majoring in earth and environmental science fields. Using Python, a popular teaching language also widely used by professionals, a set of guided exercises were developed. These exercises use interactive Jupyter Notebooks to introduce students to programming fundamentals and simple modelling problems relevant to the earth system, such as carbon cycling and population growth. The exercises are paired with peer review activities to expose students to the multitude of "correct" ways to solve computing problems. In the last weeks of the semester, students work in groups to creatively adapt their new-found skills to selected problems in earth system science. In this presentation, I will report on outcomes from delivering the new curriculum to the first two cohorts of 120-150 students, including details of the implementation and the impacts on both student aptitude and attitudes towards computing. While the first cohort clearly developed competency, survey results suggested a drop in student confidence over the course of the semester. To address this confidence gap for the second cohort, the in-class activities are now being supplemented with low-stakes open-book review quizzes that provide further practice with no time pressure. Research into the effectiveness of these review quizzes is ongoing and preliminary findings

  17. Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Molly S.; Rea, Alan; Skinner, Kenneth D.; Hortness, Jon E.

    2009-01-01

    prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

  18. Geostatistical modelling of malaria indicator survey data to assess the effects of interventions on the geographical distribution of malaria prevalence in children less than 5 years in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssempiira, Julius; Nambuusi, Betty; Kissa, John; Agaba, Bosco; Makumbi, Fredrick; Kasasa, Simon; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2017-01-01

    Malaria burden in Uganda has declined disproportionately among regions despite overall high intervention coverage across all regions. The Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) 2014-15 was the second nationally representative survey conducted to provide estimates of malaria prevalence among children less than 5 years, and to track the progress of control interventions in the country. In this present study, 2014-15 MIS data were analysed to assess intervention effects on malaria prevalence in Uganda among children less than 5 years, assess intervention effects at regional level, and estimate geographical distribution of malaria prevalence in the country. Bayesian geostatistical models with spatially varying coefficients were used to determine the effect of interventions on malaria prevalence at national and regional levels. Spike-and-slab variable selection was used to identify the most important predictors and forms. Bayesian kriging was used to predict malaria prevalence at unsampled locations. Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) and Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN) ownership had a significant but varying protective effect on malaria prevalence. However, no effect was observed for Artemisinin Combination-based Therapies (ACTs). Environmental factors, namely, land cover, rainfall, day and night land surface temperature, and area type were significantly associated with malaria prevalence. Malaria prevalence was higher in rural areas, increased with the child's age, and decreased with higher household socioeconomic status and higher level of mother's education. The highest prevalence of malaria in children less than 5 years was predicted for regions of East Central, North East and West Nile, whereas the lowest was predicted in Kampala and South Western regions, and in the mountainous areas in Mid-Western and Mid-Eastern regions. IRS and ITN ownership are important interventions against malaria prevalence in children less than 5 years in Uganda. The varying effects of the

  19. Geostatistical modelling of malaria indicator survey data to assess the effects of interventions on the geographical distribution of malaria prevalence in children less than 5 years in Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Ssempiira

    Full Text Available Malaria burden in Uganda has declined disproportionately among regions despite overall high intervention coverage across all regions. The Uganda Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS 2014-15 was the second nationally representative survey conducted to provide estimates of malaria prevalence among children less than 5 years, and to track the progress of control interventions in the country. In this present study, 2014-15 MIS data were analysed to assess intervention effects on malaria prevalence in Uganda among children less than 5 years, assess intervention effects at regional level, and estimate geographical distribution of malaria prevalence in the country.Bayesian geostatistical models with spatially varying coefficients were used to determine the effect of interventions on malaria prevalence at national and regional levels. Spike-and-slab variable selection was used to identify the most important predictors and forms. Bayesian kriging was used to predict malaria prevalence at unsampled locations.Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS and Insecticide Treated Nets (ITN ownership had a significant but varying protective effect on malaria prevalence. However, no effect was observed for Artemisinin Combination-based Therapies (ACTs. Environmental factors, namely, land cover, rainfall, day and night land surface temperature, and area type were significantly associated with malaria prevalence. Malaria prevalence was higher in rural areas, increased with the child's age, and decreased with higher household socioeconomic status and higher level of mother's education. The highest prevalence of malaria in children less than 5 years was predicted for regions of East Central, North East and West Nile, whereas the lowest was predicted in Kampala and South Western regions, and in the mountainous areas in Mid-Western and Mid-Eastern regions.IRS and ITN ownership are important interventions against malaria prevalence in children less than 5 years in Uganda. The varying

  20. Prevalence and Predictors of Pre-Diabetes and Diabetes among Adults 18 Years or Older in Florida: A Multinomial Logistic Modeling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifechukwude Obiamaka Okwechime

    Full Text Available Individuals with pre-diabetes and diabetes have increased risks of developing macro-vascular complications including heart disease and stroke; which are the leading causes of death globally. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes, and to investigate their predictors among adults ≥18 years in Florida.Data covering the time period January-December 2013, were obtained from Florida's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS. Survey design of the study was declared using SVYSET statement of STATA 13.1. Descriptive analyses were performed to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes. Predictors of pre-diabetes and diabetes were investigated using multinomial logistic regression model. Model goodness-of-fit was evaluated using both the multinomial goodness-of-fit test proposed by Fagerland, Hosmer, and Bofin, as well as, the Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test.There were approximately 2,983 (7.3% and 5,189 (12.1% adults in Florida diagnosed with pre-diabetes and diabetes, respectively. Over half of the study respondents were white, married and over the age of 45 years while 36.4% reported being physically inactive, overweight (36.4% or obese (26.4%, hypertensive (34.6%, hypercholesteremic (40.3%, and 26% were arthritic. Based on the final multivariable multinomial model, only being overweight (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] = 1.85, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 1.41, 2.42, obese (RRR = 3.41, 95% CI = 2.61, 4.45, hypertensive (RRR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.15, hypercholesterolemic (RRR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.55, 2.43, and arthritic (RRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.55 had significant associations with pre-diabetes. However, more predictors had significant associations with diabetes and the strengths of associations tended to be higher than for the association with pre-diabetes. For instance, the relative risk ratios for the association between diabetes and being overweight (RRR = 2.00, 95

  1. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

  2. 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures and hip fractures according to Ukrainian model of FRAX® in women with vertebral fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.V. Grygorieva

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background. Vertebral fractures are one of the severe complications of systemic osteoporosis, which lead to the low-back pain, decrease or loss of efficiency and increase of mortality in older people. FRAX and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA are important methods in determining major osteoporotic fractures risk, including vertebral fractures. Materials and methods. We studied the parameters of Ukrainian model of FRAX in women depending on the presence of vertebral fractures. 652 patients aged 40–89 years examined at the Ukrainian Scientific Medical Center of Osteoporosis were divided into two groups: the first one — 523 women without any previous fractures, the second one — 129 patients with previous vertebral fractures. The assessment of bone mineral density (BMD was performed using DXA (Prodigy, General Electric. The 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (FRAX-MOF and hip fractures (FRAX-HF has been determined using Ukrainian model of FRAX according to two methods — with body mass index (FRAXBMI and BMD. Results. According the distribution of FRAXBMI-MOF parameters in women depending on the presence of vertebral fractures, it was found that index of FRAXBMI-MOF was less than 20 % (the limit indicated as the criterion for treatment initiation in US guidelines in 100 and 100 % of subjects, respectively. The indices of FRAX BMD-HF were less than 3 % (the limit for starting treatment in US guidelines in 95 and 55 % of women, respectively. It was shown the significant moderate correlation between the indices of two methods in all groups for both parameters of the algorithm — FRAX-MOF and FRAX-HF. Conclusions. The study of the age-specific features of FRAX in women depending on the presence of vertebral fractures showed a significant increase in the risks for both major osteoporotic and hip fractures, regardless of the used technique (with BMI or BMD in women with vertebral fractures or without any fractures. Our

  3. EPA and California Air Resources Board disapprove Volkswagen’s Proposed Emissions Modification for model year 2012 – 2014 manual transmission diesel Passat vehicles; VW intends to submit revised proposal

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA and CARB approve an emissions modification proposed by Volkswagen (VW) to reduce nitrogen oxides emissions from model year 2009-2014, generation 1, 2.0 liter diesel Jetta, Golf, Beetle, and Audi A3 vehicles.

  4. Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance Penalties for 2004 and later Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance Penalties for 2004 and later Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

  5. Releasing the digital elevation model for the whole Italian territory: a case study reporting two years of core-data dissemination for Earth Sciences communities and other stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarquini, Simone; Nannipieri, Luca

    2014-05-01

    EPOS (European Plate Observing System) is the European initiative for the implementation and integration of European Research Infrastructures in the field of Solid Earth Sciences. In particular, EPOS is aimed at creating a common environment for data exchange for both the scientific community and relevant stakeholders interested in Earth Sciences. In such a context, a service providing access to the complete topography of one of the countries participating in EPOS represents a step forward towards the realization of the EPOS mission. Here we report about two years of activity of a data dissemination service which released (for free) a digital elevation model (DEM) of the whole Italian territory at 10 m-resolution named TINTALY/01. The new TINITALY/01 DEM for the whole Italian territory was completed and presented by INGV in 2007. This DEM was the final result of a project funded by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. TINITALY/01 was completed in two phases: in a first phase, independent elevation models for single regions were derived, and in a second phase, all the regional models were merged into a single, seamless model covering the whole territory of Italy. In early 2012, a web portal was published (http://tinitaly.pi.ingv.it/) through which the above DEM is open for a full web-GIS navigation (3-D navigation in anaglyph mode or standard 2-D hillshade), and where internet navigators can ask for the download of the DEM dataset (in grid format, 10 m-resolution) through the compilation of an online form (http://tinitaly.pi.ingv.it/account_request_form.html). Submission of the form implies stating the destination of use for the data, and acceptance of the policy of use (i.e. no-profit use). After nearly two years from the opening of the portal, the DEM is still browsed by up to 10-20 users per day (about 3000 visits throughout 2013). As of 31 December 2013, about 220 users affiliated to nearly 150 different institutions or associations (i.e. universities

  6. Family time, parental behaviour model and the initiation of smoking and alcohol use by ten-year-old children: an epidemiological study in Kaunas, Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaborskis Apolinaras

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Family is considered to be the first and the most important child development and socialization bond. Nevertheless, parental behaviour model importance for the children, as well as family time for shared activity amount influence upon the child's health-related behaviour habit development has not been yet thoroughly examined. The aim of this paper is to indicate the advanced health-hazardous behaviour modelling possibilities in the families, as well as time spent for joint family activities, and to examine the importance of time spent for joint family activities for the smoking and alcohol use habit initiation among children. Methods This research was carried out in Kaunas, Lithuania, during the school year 2004–2005. The research population consisted of 369 fifth-grade schoolchildren (211 (57.2% boys and 158 (42.8% girls and 565 parents: 323 (57.2% mothers and 242 (48.2% fathers. The response rate was 80.7% for children; 96.1% and 90.6% for mothers and fathers correspondingly. Results Eating a meal together was the most frequent joint family activity, whereas visiting friends or relatives together, going for a walk, or playing sports were the most infrequent joint family activities. More than two thirds (81.5% of parents (248 (77.0% mothers and 207 (85.9% fathers (p Conclusion Joint family activity time deficit together with frequent parental examples of smoking and alcohol use underlie the development of alcohol and smoking addictions in children to some extent. The above-mentioned issues are suggested to be widely addressed in the comprehensive family health education programs.

  7. Using soil records with atmospheric dispersion modeling to investigate the effects of clean air regulations on 60 years of manganese deposition in Marietta, Ohio (USA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Megan R; Gaudet, Brian J; Stauffer, David R; White, Timothy S; Brantley, Susan L

    2015-05-15

    Atmospheric emissions of metals from anthropogenic activities have led to deposition and contamination of soils worldwide. We quantified addition of manganese (Mn) to soils around the largest emitter of Mn in the United States (U.S.) using chemical analyses and atmospheric dispersion modeling (Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF)). Concentrations of soil-surface Mn were enriched by 9-fold relative to that of the parent material within 1 km of the facility. Elevated concentrations of Mn and chromium (Cr), another potentially toxic element that was emitted, document contamination only within 1 m of the soil surface. Total mass of Mn added per unit land area integrated over 1 m, mMn, equals ~80 mg Mn cm(-2) near the facility. Values of mMn remained above background up to tens of kilometers from the source. Air concentrations of Mn particles of 7.5-micron diameter simulated with SCIPUFF using available data for the emission rate and local meteorological conditions for 2006 were consistent with measured air concentrations. However, the Mn deposition calculated for 2006 with SCIPUFF yielded a cumulative value over the lifetime of the refinery (60 years) that is a factor of 15 lower than the Mn observed to have been added to the soils. This discrepancy can be easily explained if Mn deposition rates before 1988 were more than an order of magnitude greater than today. Such higher emissions are probable, given the changes in metal production with time and the installation of emission controls after the Clean Air Act (1970). This work shows that atmospheric dispersion models can be used with soil profiles to understand the changes in metal emissions over decadal timescales. In addition, the calculations are consistent with the Clean Air Act accounting for a 15-fold decrease in the Mn deposition to soils around the refinery per metric ton of Mn alloy produced. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Comparison of a Drug-Free Early Programmed Dismantling PDLLA Bioresorbable Scaffold and a Metallic Stent in a Porcine Coronary Artery Model at 3-Year Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahagi, Kazuyuki; Yang, Yi; Torii, Sho; Mensah, Johanne; White, Roseann M; Mathieu, Marion; Pacheco, Erica; Nakano, Masataka; Barakat, Abdul; Sharkawi, Tahmer; Vert, Michel; Joner, Michael; Finn, Aloke V; Virmani, Renu; Lafont, Antoine

    2017-06-09

    Arterial Remodeling Technologies bioresorbable scaffold (ART-BRS), composed of l- and d-lactyl units without drug, has shown its safety in a porcine coronary model at 6 months. However, long-term performance remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ART-BRS compared to a bare metal stent (BMS) in a healthy porcine coronary model for up to 3 years. Eighty-two ART-BRS and 66 BMS were implanted in 64 Yucatan swine, and animals were euthanatized at intervals of 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months to determine the vascular response using quantitative coronary angiography, optical coherence tomography, light and scanning electron microscopy, and molecular weight analysis. Lumen enlargement was observed in ART-BRS as early as 3 months, which progressively increased up to 18 months, whereas BMS showed no significant difference over time. Percentage area stenosis by optical coherence tomography was greater in ART-BRS than in BMS at 1 and 3 months, but this relationship reversed beyond 3 months. Inflammation peaked at 6 months and thereafter continued to decrease up to 36 months. Complete re-endothelialization was observed at 1 month following implantation in both ART-BRS and BMS. Scaffold dismantling started at 3 months, which allowed early vessel enlargement, and bioresorption was complete by 24 months. ART-BRS has the unique quality of early programmed dismantling accompanied by vessel lumen enlargement with mild to moderate inflammation. The main distinguishing feature of the ART-BRS from other scaffolds made from poly-l-lactic acid may result in early and long-term vascular restoration. © 2017 The Authors and Arterial Remodeling Technologies. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

  9. Growth and Mortality Outcomes for Different Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Criteria in Children aged 1–5 Years: A Causal Modelling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Davies, Mary-Ann; Malateste, Karen; Renner, Lorna; Sawry, Shobna; N’Gbeche, Sylvie; Technau, Karl-Günter; Eboua, François; Tanser, Frank; Sygnaté-Sy, Haby; Phiri, Sam; Amorissani-Folquet, Madeleine; Cox, Vivian; Koueta, Fla; Chimbete, Cleophas; Lawson-Evi, Annette; Giddy, Janet; Amani-Bosse, Clarisse; Wood, Robin; Egger, Matthias; Leroy, Valeriane

    2017-01-01

    Background There is limited evidence regarding the optimal timing of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children. We conducted a causal modelling analysis in children aged 1–5 years from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS West/Southern-Africa collaboration to determine growth and mortality differences related to different CD4-based treatment initiation criteria, age groups and regions. Methods ART-naïve children of age 12–59 months at enrollment with at least one visit before ART initiation and one follow-up visit were included. We estimated 3-year growth and cumulative mortality from the start of follow-up for different CD4 criteria using g-computation. Results About one quarter of the 5826 included children was from West Africa (24.6%). The median (first; third quartile) CD4% at the first visit was 16% (11%;23%), the median weight-for-age z-scores and height-for-age z-scores were −1.5 (−2.7; −0.6) and −2.5 (−3.5; −1.5), respectively. Estimated cumulative mortality was higher overall, and growth was slower, when initiating ART at lower CD4 thresholds. After 3 years of follow-up, the estimated mortality difference between starting ART routinely irrespective of CD4 count and starting ART if either CD4 count<750 cells/mm3 or CD4%<25% was 0.2% (95%CI: −0.2%;0.3%), and the difference in the mean height-for-age z-scores of those who survived was −0.02 (95%CI: −0.04;0.01). Younger children aged 1–2 and children in West Africa had worse outcomes. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that earlier treatment initiation yields overall better growth and mortality outcomes, though we could not show any differences in outcomes between immediate ART and delaying until CD4 count/% falls below750/25%. PMID:26479876

  10. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom

    1996-01-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  11. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldegard, Tom [Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen (Norway)

    1996-07-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  12. Fleet average NOx emission performance of 2007 model year light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-09-01

    This report summarized the regulatory requirements related to nitrous oxide (NO x ) fleet averaging for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles under the On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations. The regulations introduced more stringent national emission standards for on-road vehicles and engines and include technical standards that establish maximum limits on vehicle exhaust emissions. The fleet average NO x emission performance of individual companies and the overall Canadian fleet for 2007 was summarized, and the effectiveness of the Canadian fleet average NO x emission program was evaluated in relation to its environmental performance objectives. A total of 22 companies submitted reports for 294 test groups comprising 1,599,051 vehicles of the 2007 model year. The average NO x value for the entire LDV/LLDT fleet was 0.06897630 grams per mile. The average value for the HLDT/MDPV fleet was 0.160668 grams per mile. NO x values for both overall fleets remained better than the corresponding fleet average NO x standards, and were consistent with the environmental performance objectives of the regulations. 9 tabs., 3 figs.

  13. Monitoring ground water storage at mesoscale using seismic noise: 30 years of continuous observation and thermo-elastic and hydrological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lecocq, Thomas; Longuevergne, Laurent; Pedersen, Helle Anette; Brenguier, Florent; Stammler, Klaus

    2017-10-27

    Groundwater is a vital freshwater resource for both humans and ecosystems. Achieving sustainable management requires a detailed knowledge of the aquifer structure and of its behavior in response to climatic and anthropogenic forcing. Traditional monitoring is carried out using piezometer networks, and recently complemented with new geophysical or satellite-based observations. These techniques survey either local (small-scale) water systems or regional areas (large scale) but, to date, adequate observation tools are lacking at the water management scale (i.e. several tens of kms), which is generally explored by modeling. Using 30 years of continuous recording by four seismic stations of the Gräfenberg Array (Germany), we demonstrate that long-term observations of velocity variations (approximately 0.01%) of surface waves can be extracted from such recordings of ocean-generated seismic noise. These small variations can be explained by changes to mechanical properties of the complex aquifer system in the top few hundred meters of the crust. The velocity changes can be interpreted as effects of temperature diffusion and water storage changes. Seismic noise recordings may become a new and valuable tool to monitor heterogeneous groundwater systems at mesoscale, in addition to existing observation methods.

  14. Modeling relationship between mean years of schooling and household expenditure at Central Sulawesi using constrained B-splines (COBS) in quantile regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudoyo, Luhur Partomo; Andriyana, Yudhie; Handoko, Budhi

    2017-03-01

    Quantile regression illustrates the distribution of conditional variable responses to various quantile desired values. Each quantile characterizes a certain point (center or tail) of a conditional distribution. This analysis is very useful for asymmetric conditional distribution, e.g. solid at the tail of the distribution, the truncated distribution and existence of outliers. One approach nonparametric method of predicting the conditional quantile objective function is Constrained B-Splines (COBS). COBS is a smoothing technique to accommodate the addition of constraints such as monotonicity, convexity and periodicity. In this study, we will change the minimum conditional quantile objective function in COBS into a linear programming problem. Linear programming problem is defined as the problem of minimizing and maximizing a linear function subject to linear constraints. The constraints may be equalities or inequalities. This research will discuss the relationship between education (mean years of schooling) and economic (household expenditure) levels at Central Sulawesi Province in 2014 which household level data provide more systematic evidence on positive relationship. So monotonicity (increasing) constraints will be used in COBS quantile regression model.

  15. Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2003-2010 Passenger Cars and LTVs”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-06-01

    NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, by 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the

  16. PERFORM 60: Prediction of the effects of radiation for reactor pressure vessel and in-core materials using multi-scale modelling - 60 years foreseen plant lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al Mazouzi, A.; Alamo, A.; Lidbury, D.; Moinereau, D.; Van Dyck, S.

    2011-01-01

    stress corrosion behaviour of these materials in a primary coolant environment. Recently, relying on the existing PERFECT Roadmap, the FP7 Collaborative Project PERFORM 60 was launched with the overall objective of building on the success of PERFECT to develop similar tools that would allow simulation of the combined effects of irradiation and corrosion on internals, in addition to a further improvement of the existing tools which model irradiation effects in RPV bainitic steels. From a managerial viewpoint, PERFORM 60 is based on two technical sub-projects, namely (i) RPV and (ii) Internals. In addition, a User's Group and training scheme have been initiated in order to allow representatives of constructors, utilities, research organizations, etc. from Europe, USA and Japan to participate actively in the process of appraising the limits and potentialities of the developed tools and to assess their validation against qualified experimental data. Furthermore, significant efforts are being made to share knowledge and experience with young researchers in the field of nuclear materials degradation and to disseminate the results as widely as possible both within the project, and in international conferences, peer reviewed journals and via a dedicated website, that the latter serving as an 'open window' for internal communications and as a close link with similar projects underway worldwide. PERFORM 60 officially kicked off on March 1st, 2009 for a duration of 4 years. There are 20 participants. These comprise European organizations and Universities active in the nuclear field: all are engaged directly in the consortium to provide the intended software tools and to ensure that these are underpinned by physical understanding of the main mechanisms behind the observed in-service degradation phenomena.

  17. A simulation model investigating the impact of tumor volume doubling time and mammographic tumor detectability on screening outcomes in women aged 40-49 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Stephanie L; Sigal, Bronislava M; Plevritis, Sylvia K

    2010-08-18

    Compared with women aged 50-69 years, the lower sensitivity of mammographic screening in women aged 40-49 years is largely attributed to the lower mammographic tumor detectability and faster tumor growth in the younger women. We used a Monte Carlo simulation model of breast cancer screening by age to estimate the median tumor size detectable on a mammogram and the mean tumor volume doubling time. The estimates were calculated by calibrating the predicted breast cancer incidence rates to the actual rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and the predicted distributions of screen-detected tumor sizes to the actual distributions obtained from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC). The calibrated parameters were used to estimate the relative impact of lower mammographic tumor detectability vs faster tumor volume doubling time on the poorer screening outcomes in younger women compared with older women. Mammography screening outcomes included sensitivity, mean tumor size at detection, lifetime gained, and breast cancer mortality. In addition, the relationship between screening sensitivity and breast cancer mortality was investigated as a function of tumor volume doubling time, mammographic tumor detectability, and screening interval. Lowered mammographic tumor detectability accounted for 79% and faster tumor volume doubling time accounted for 21% of the poorer sensitivity of mammography screening in younger women compared with older women. The relative contributions were similar when the impact of screening was evaluated in terms of mean tumor size at detection, lifetime gained, and breast cancer mortality. Screening sensitivity and breast cancer mortality reduction attributable to screening were almost linearly related when comparing annual or biennial screening with no screening. However, when comparing annual with biennial screening, the greatest reduction in breast cancer mortality attributable to screening did not

  18. Status of 137Cs contamination in marine biota along the Pacific coast of eastern Japan derived from a dynamic biological model two years simulation following the Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tateda, Yutaka; Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Yamada, Masatoshi; Kanda, Jota; Ishimaru, Takashi

    2016-01-01

    Radiocesium ( 134 Cs and 137 Cs) released into the Fukushima coastal environment was transferred to marine biota inhabiting the Pacific Ocean coastal waters of eastern Japan. Though the levels in most of the edible marine species decreased overtime, radiocesium concentrations in some fishes were still remained higher than the Japanese regulatory limit for seafood products. In this study, a dynamic food chain transfer model was applied to reconstruct 137 Cs levels in olive flounder by adopting the radiocesium concentrations in small demersal fish which constitute an important fraction of the diet of the olive flounder particularly inhabiting area near Fukushima. In addition, 137 Cs levels in slime flounder were also simulated using reported radiocesium concentrations in some prey organisms. The simulated results from Onahama on the southern border of the Fukushima coastline, and at Choshi the southernmost point where the contaminated water mass was transported by the Oyashio current, were assessed in order to identify what can be explained from present information, and what remains to be clarified three years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (1FNPP) accident. As a result, the observed 137 Cs concentrations in planktivorous fish and their predator fish could be explained by the theoretically-derived simulated levels. On the other hand, the slow 137 Cs depuration in slime flounder can be attributed to uptake from unknown sources for which the uptake fluxes were of a similar magnitude as the excretion fluxes. Since the reported 137 Cs concentrations in benthic invertebrates off Onahama were higher than the simulated values, radiocesium transfer from these benthic detritivorous invertebrates to slime flounder via ingestion was suggested as a cause for the observed slow depuration of 137 Cs in demersal fish off southern Fukushima. Furthermore, the slower depuration in the demersal fish likely required an additional source of 137 Cs, i.e. contaminated

  19. Biodiversity, greenhouse gas and economic trade-offs from biochar use: a 20 year model of biochar use in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathorne-Hardy, A.

    2014-12-01

    Biochar is promoted for its carbon storage and soil amendment properties, but there remains a research gap into wider sustainability implications of biochar use. Without these there is a risk that biochar use could deliver negative unforeseen consequences. Key to biochar sustainability is the feedstock sustainability, which in developed nations can be novel due to the ability to process biomass locally. Using field trial data and primary biodiversity assessments we modelled different sustainability indicators (local GHG balance, global GHG balance, local biodiversity, global biodiversity and local economic return) associated with four different biochar feedstocks (woodlands, hedgerows, Short Rotation Coppice (SRC) and straw) over 20 years for UK arable agriculture. Global measures included Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC). Our results showed that trade-offs are inherent. Local GHG emissions are reduced by use of straw and SRC, and increased through the use of woodlands. In contrast all feedstocks reduced the global GHG emissions. Local biodiversity was increased through use of hedgerows, woodlands, SRC and low fertiliser rates. Global biodiversity was maximised through high fertiliser rates and use of all feedstocks. Critically economic return was maximised through high use of woodland and straw, and substantially reduced when hedgerows or SRC is used as feedstock. The introduction of high (£52 t-1 CO2) and low (£11.44 t-1 CO2) carbon prices were never enough to shift a system between loss and profit. This research demonstrates that the sustainability of biochar varies substantially depending on the scale (local or global) and the breadth of indicators included. Ultimately biochar is designed to have a role in solving global problems, but the decisions determining use will be made locally. Regulation to ensure biochar is used appropriately may be necessary.

  20. Concurrent agreement between an anthropometric model to predict thigh volume and dual-energy X-Ray absorptiometry assessment in female volleyball players aged 14-18 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Óscar M; Valente-Dos-Santos, João; Duarte, João P; Póvoas, Susana C; Gobbo, Luís A; Fernandes, Rômulo A; Marinho, Daniel A; Casanova, José M; Sherar, Lauren B; Courteix, Daniel; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

    2016-11-24

    A variety of performance outputs are strongly determined by lower limbs volume and composition in children and adolescents. The current study aimed to examine the validity of thigh volume (TV) estimated by anthropometry in late adolescent female volleyball players. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measures were used as the reference method. Total and regional body composition was assessed with a Lunar DPX NT/Pro/MD+/Duo/Bravo scanner in a cross-sectional sample of 42 Portuguese female volleyball players aged 14-18 years (165.2 ± 0.9 cm; 61.1 ± 1.4 kg). TV was estimated with the reference method (TV-DXA) and with the anthropometric method (TV-ANTH). Agreement between procedures was assessed with Deming regression. The analysis also considered a calibration of the anthropometric approach. The equation that best predicted TV-DXA was: -0.899 + 0.876 × log 10 (body mass) + 0.113 × log 10 (TV-ANTH). This new model (NM) was validated using the predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) method (R 2 PRESS  = 0.838). Correlation between the reference method and the NM was 0.934 (95%CI: 0.880-0.964, S y∙x  = 0.325 L). A new and accurate anthropometric method to estimate TV in adolescent female volleyball players was obtained from the equation of Jones and Pearson alongside with adjustments for body mass.

  1. Defining the Magnitude: Patterns, Regularities and Direct TOA-Surface Flux Relationships in the 15-Year Long CERES Satellite Data — Observations, Model and Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagoni, M.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past fifteen years, the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite mission has provided the scientific community with the most reliable Earth radiation budget data. This presentation offers quantitative assessment of the published CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 2.8 and Edition 4.0 data products, and reveals several internal patterns, ratios and regularities within the annual global mean flux components of the all-sky and clear-sky surface and atmospheric energy budgets. The found patterns, among others, include: (i) direct relationships between the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative and surface radiative and non-radiative fluxes (contradicting the expectation that TOA and surface fluxes are physically decoupled); (ii) integer ratios and relationships between the absorbed and emitted surface and atmospheric energy flow elements; and (iii) definite connections among the clear-sky and the all-sky shortwave, longwave and non-radiative (turbulent) flux elements and the corresponding greenhouse effect. Comparison between the EBAF Ed2.8 and Ed4.0 SFC and TOA data products and trend analyses of the normalized clear-sky and all-sky greenhouse factors are presented. Longwave cloud radiative effect (LW CRE) proved to be playing a principal role in organizing the found numerical patterns in the surface and atmospheric energy flow components. All of the revealed structures are quantitatively valid within the one-sigma range of uncertainty of the involved individual flux elements. This presentation offers a conceptual framework to interpret the found relationships and shows how the observed CERES fluxes can be deduced from this proposed physical model. An important conclusion drawn from our analysis is that the internal atmospheric and surface energy flow system forms a definite structure and seems to be more constrained to the incoming solar energy than previously thought.

  2. Year-and-a-half old, dried Echinacea roots retain cytokine-modulating capabilities in an in vitro human older adult model of influenza vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senchina, David S; Wu, Lankun; Flinn, Gina N; Konopka, Del N; McCoy, Joe-Ann; Widrlechner, Mark P; Widrelechner, Mark P; Wurtele, Eve Syrkin; Kohut, Marian L

    2006-10-01

    Alcohol tinctures prepared from aged Echinacea roots are typically taken for preventing or treating upper respiratory infections, as they are purported to stimulate immunity in this context. The effects of long-term (> 1 year) dry storage on the capabilities of Echinacea spp. roots from mature individuals to modulate cytokine production are unknown. Using an older human adult model of influenza vaccination, we collected peripheral blood mononuclear cells from subjects 6 months post-vaccination and stimulated them in vitro with the two Type A influenza viruses contained in the trivalent 2004-2005 vaccine with a 50 % alcohol tincture prepared from the roots of one of seven Echinacea species: E. angustifolia, E. pallida, E. paradoxa, E. purpurea, E. sanguinea, E. simulata, and E. tennesseensis. Before being processed into extracts, all roots had been stored under dry conditions for sixteen months. Cells were cultured for 48 hours; following incubation, supernatants were collected and assayed for interleukin-2, interleukin-10, and interferon-gamma production, cytokines important in the immune response to viral infection. Four species ( E. angustifolia, E. purpurea, E. simulata, E. tennesseensis) augmented IL-10 production, diminished IL-2 production, and had no effect on IFN-gamma production. Echinacea pallida suppressed production of all cytokines; E. paradoxa and E. sanguinea behaved similarly, although to a lesser extent. The results from these in vitro bioactivity assays indicate that dried Echinacea roots stored for sixteen months maintain cytokine-modulating capacities. Our data support and extend previous research and indicate that tinctures from different Echinacea species have different patterns of immune modulation; further, they indicate that certain species may be efficacious in the immune response to viral infection.

  3. Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2004-2011 Passenger Cars and LTVs” (LBNL Phase 1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P.

    2018-03-28

    reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or

  4. Analysis for dry and wet years with the WIMISA model of tree-crop competition for wind break systems in the Sahel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mayus, M.; Keulen, van H.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1999-01-01

    A modelling approach was chosen for analyzing the effects of competition between windbreaks and crops for soil water and radiation in the Sahel. The model has a high spatial and temporal resolution to account for the heterogeneity in a windbreak-cropping system. The model was parameterised for

  5. Validation of a multimarker model for assessing risk of type 2 diabetes from a five-year prospective study of 6784 Danish people (Inter99)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Urdea, Mickey; Kolberg, Janice; Wilber, Judith

    2009-01-01

    to the sequestered validation set, the PreDx DRS showed the same performance (AUC = 0.838), thus validating the model. This model had a better AUC than any other single measure from a fasting sample. Moreover, the model provided further risk stratification among high-risk subpopulations with impaired fasting glucose...

  6. Mediastinitis, a model of care. Experience in the General Hospital of Mexico over 34 years (1982–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.P. Navarro-Reynoso

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Mediastinitis is a potentially fatal condition. In addition to timely diagnosis, its prognosis depends on an early and systematic approach. Objective: To describe the results of mediastinitis treatment over a period of 34 years in a teaching hospital, its evolution and the current model of care. Materials and methods: Cross-sectional, retrospective and descriptive study of patients with mediastinitis admitted from 1 June 1982 to 30 July 2016. The analysed variables were demographic, classification and aetiology of mediastinitis, comorbidities, complications, length of hospital and intensive care unit stay and mortality. Results: 1880 patients were included of which 1496 (79.6% were men. The mean age was 39.4 ± 17.8 years. According to the classification of Endo, 603 (32.1% corresponded to type I and 1277 (67.9% to types IIA and IIB. According to the aetiology, in 910 cases the origin was odontogenic (48.4%, 526 due to retropharyngeal abscess (28%, 147 secondary to submandibular abscess (7.8%, 49 due to cervical lymphadenectomy (2.6%, 36 due to pharyngeal trauma (1.9%, 14 due to post-intubation tracheal rupture (0.7% and 198 were of undetermined origin (10.6%. Mediastinotomy with right thoracotomy was performed in 86% and mediastinotomy with left thoracotomy was performed in 14%. Simultaneous tracheostomy was performed in 83% of cases, standardising this procedure since 2005. Mortality varied between periods and was 50% in 1982–1992, 41% in 1992–2001, 35% in 2002–2011 and 17% in 2012–2016. Conclusion: Along with the standardisation of the management of mediastinitis, a fall in mortality from this cause has been observed over the years. The maturity of the proposed model of care is a result of, among other things, medical and scientific advances and the experience gained in this pathology over more than three decades. Resumen: Antecedente: La mediastinitis es un padecimiento potencialmente fatal. Adem

  7. Past Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodge, Oliver

    2012-07-01

    Preface; 1. Ancestry and early days; 2. Schooldays; 3. Relation with other boys at school; 4. Education; 5. Influence of the Royal Institution; 6. Later education in London; 7. Reminiscences of Bedford College; 8. Scientific work and friends in London; 9. Personal retrospect; 10. Romance; 11. Influence of the British Association; 12. Reminiscences of Coopers Hill and assistants and popular lectures; 13. Liverpool; 14. Scientific work at Liverpool; 15. Scientific work at Liverpool (cont.); 16. Scientific work at Liverpool (cont.); 17. Electric waves and the beginnings of wireless; 18. Other friends; 19. Family life; 20. Holidays; 21. Side issues; 22. Early experiences in psychical research; 23. Psychical research; 24. Further psychic adventures, and psycho-physical phenomena; 25. Reminiscences of my years at the university of Birmingham; 26. Birmingham friendships and recollections; 27. Scientific retrospect; 28. Apologia pro vita mea; Index.

  8. Geotail observations of plasma sheet ion composition over 16 years: On variations of average plasma ion mass and O+ triggering substorm model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nosé, M.; Ieda, A.; Christon, S. P.

    2009-07-01

    We examined long-term variations of ion composition in the plasma sheet, using energetic (9.4-212.1 keV/e) ion flux data obtained by the suprathermal ion composition spectrometer (STICS) sensor of the energetic particle and ion composition (EPIC) instrument on board the Geotail spacecraft. EPIC/STICS observations are available from 17 October 1992 for more than 16 years, covering the declining phase of solar cycle 22, all of solar cycle 23, and the early phase of solar cycle 24. This unprecedented long-term data set revealed that (1) the He+/H+ and O+/H+ flux ratios in the plasma sheet were dependent on the F10.7 index; (2) the F10.7 index dependence is stronger for O+/H+ than He+/H+; (3) the O+/H+ flux ratio is also weakly correlated with the ΣKp index; and (4) the He2+/H+ flux ratio in the plasma sheet appeared to show no long-term trend. From these results, we derived empirical equations related to plasma sheet ion composition and the F10.7 index and estimated that the average plasma ion mass changes from ˜1.1 amu during solar minimum to ˜2.8 amu during solar maximum. In such a case, the Alfvén velocity during solar maximum decreases to ˜60% of the solar minimum value. Thus, physical processes in the plasma sheet are considered to be much different between solar minimum and solar maximum. We also compared long-term variation of the plasma sheet ion composition with that of the substorm occurrence rate, which is evaluated by the number of Pi2 pulsations. No correlation or negative correlation was found between them. This result contradicts the O+ triggering substorm model, in which heavy ions in the plasma sheet increase the growth rate of the linear ion tearing mode and play an important role in localization and initiation of substorms. In contrast, O+ ions in the plasma sheet may prevent occurrence of substorms.

  9. Evaluation of a seven-year air quality simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models in the eastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongliang; Chen, Gang; Hu, Jianlin; Chen, Shu-Hua; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Kleeman, Michael; Ying, Qi

    2014-03-01

    The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) system in the eastern United States is analyzed based on results from a seven-year modeling study with a 4-km spatial resolution. For 2-m temperature, the monthly averaged mean bias (MB) and gross error (GE) values are generally within the recommended performance criteria, although temperature is over-predicted with MB values up to 2K. Water vapor at 2-m is well-predicted but significant biases (>2 g kg(-1)) were observed in wintertime. Predictions for wind speed are satisfactory but biased towards over-prediction with 0

  10. Status of (137)Cs contamination in marine biota along the Pacific coast of eastern Japan derived from a dynamic biological model two years simulation following the Fukushima accident.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tateda, Yutaka; Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Yamada, Masatoshi; Kanda, Jota; Ishimaru, Takashi

    2016-01-01

    Radiocesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) released into the Fukushima coastal environment was transferred to marine biota inhabiting the Pacific Ocean coastal waters of eastern Japan. Though the levels in most of the edible marine species decreased overtime, radiocesium concentrations in some fishes were still remained higher than the Japanese regulatory limit for seafood products. In this study, a dynamic food chain transfer model was applied to reconstruct (137)Cs levels in olive flounder by adopting the radiocesium concentrations in small demersal fish which constitute an important fraction of the diet of the olive flounder particularly inhabiting area near Fukushima. In addition, (137)Cs levels in slime flounder were also simulated using reported radiocesium concentrations in some prey organisms. The simulated results from Onahama on the southern border of the Fukushima coastline, and at Choshi the southernmost point where the contaminated water mass was transported by the Oyashio current, were assessed in order to identify what can be explained from present information, and what remains to be clarified three years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (1FNPP) accident. As a result, the observed (137)Cs concentrations in planktivorous fish and their predator fish could be explained by the theoretically-derived simulated levels. On the other hand, the slow (137)Cs depuration in slime flounder can be attributed to uptake from unknown sources for which the uptake fluxes were of a similar magnitude as the excretion fluxes. Since the reported (137)Cs concentrations in benthic invertebrates off Onahama were higher than the simulated values, radiocesium transfer from these benthic detritivorous invertebrates to slime flounder via ingestion was suggested as a cause for the observed slow depuration of (137)Cs in demersal fish off southern Fukushima. Furthermore, the slower depuration in the demersal fish likely required an additional source of (137)Cs, i

  11. Modeling Supply and Demand for Arts and Sciences Faculty: What Ten Years of Data Tell Us about the Labor Market Projections of Bowen and Sosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Douglas T.

    2001-01-01

    The labor market projections of Bowen and Sosa's "Prospects for Faculty" (1989) are assessed by testing their assumptions about faculty supply and demand against data from the last decade. Improvements to the model are recommended, including the use of an inventory-attrition model to account for backlogs of supply. (Author)

  12. Update on the debate about the existence and utility of the Big Five: a ten-year follow-up on Carroll's "the Five-Factor Personality Model: how complete and satisfactory is it?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merenda, Peter F

    2008-12-01

    This paper is a follow-up comment on John B. Carroll's critique of the Big Five Model and his suggestion years ago on how to design and conduct research properly on the structure of personality and its assessment. The status of research on personality factor models is discussed, and conclusions are reached regarding the likely consequences and further prospects of the failure of personality theorists and practitioners to follow through on Carroll's poignant suggestion for required effort.

  13. A model for evaluation of faculty members′ activities based on meta-evaluation of a 5-year experience in medical school

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aeen Mohammadi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: There is a global interest for deploying faculty members′ activities evaluation systems, however implementing a fair and reliable system is a challenging issue. In this study, the authors devised a model for evaluation of faculty members′ activities with regard to their viewpoints and meta-evaluation standards. Materials and Methods: The reliability of the current faculty members′ activities metrics system was investigated in Medical School of Tehran University of Medical Sciences in 2014. Then authors conducted semi-structured interviews regarding meta-evaluation standards and designed a questionnaire based on interviews′ results which were delivered to faculty members. Finally, they extracted the components of the model regarding interviews′ content analysis and questionnaire′s factor analysis and finalized them in a focus group session with experts. Results: Reliability of the current system was 0.99 (P < 0.05. The final model had six dimensions (mission alignment, accuracy, explicit, satisfaction, appropriateness, and constructiveness derived from factor analysis of the questionnaire and nine factors (consensus, self-reporting, web-based system, evaluation period, minimum expectancies, analysis intervals, verifiers, flexibility, and decision making obtained via qualitative content analysis of the interviews. Conclusion: In this study, the authors presented a model for faculty members′ activities evaluation based on meta-evaluation of the existing system. The model covered conceptual and executive aspects. Faculty members′ viewpoints were the core component of this model, so it would be acceptable in a medical school to use the model for evaluating their activities.

  14. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 1 (Main text and Appendix I, sections 1--4)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 1 contains the main body of the report and the first 4 sections of Appendix 1: Modeling of black liquor recovery boilers -- summary report; Flow and heat transfer modeling in the upper furnace of a kraft recovery boiler; Numerical simulation of black liquor combustion; and Investigation of turbulence models and prediction of swirling flows for kraft recovery furnaces.

  15. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : carrier intervention effectiveness model, version 1.0, summary report for fiscal years 2009, 2010, 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor : carrier interventions in terms...

  16. An integrated model for radiology education: development of a year-long curriculum in imaging with focus on ambulatory and multidisciplinary medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffer, Kitt; Ng, Joshua M; Hirsh, David A

    2009-10-01

    In 2004, Harvard Medical School initiated a pilot program, the Cambridge Integrated Clerkship, in which students study the core third-year medical disciplines in a longitudinal year long experience. In this paper, the authors describe the design of the radiology portion of this program and compare outcomes to those of students in a traditional curriculum. Students in the integrated curriculum were compared to students in traditional clerkships on the basis of Objective Structured Clinical Examination cases, final exams, fourth-year comprehensive exam scores, and choice of specialty. Scores on Objective Structured Clinical Examination cases and imaging final exams were not statistically different between the two groups, but Integrated Clerkship students had statistically lower scores on final exams. Integrated Clerkship students scored higher on the fourth-year radiology comprehensive exam than traditional students, but differences were not statistically significant. Choice of radiology as a specialty was not statistically different between the two groups. Teaching radiology in an integrated year long curriculum is feasible, with a minimal drop in exam scores but no changes in other evaluative measures and no decrease in the choice of radiology as a specialty. The program may give students a better appreciation of the role of radiology in an ambulatory setting and in relationship to other specialties.

  17. Application of a Weighted Regression Model for Reporting Nutrient and Sediment Concentrations, Fluxes, and Trends in Concentration and Flux for the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network, Results Through Water Year 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanat, Jeffrey G.; Moyer, Douglas L.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hyer, Kenneth E.; Langland, Michael J.

    2016-01-13

    In the Chesapeake Bay watershed, estimated fluxes of nutrients and sediment from the bay’s nontidal tributaries into the estuary are the foundation of decision making to meet reductions prescribed by the Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) and are often the basis for refining scientific understanding of the watershed-scale processes that influence the delivery of these constituents to the bay. Two regression-based flux and trend estimation models, ESTIMATOR and Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), were compared using data from 80 watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Nontidal Water-Quality Monitoring Network (CBNTN). The watersheds range in size from 62 to 70,189 square kilometers and record lengths range from 6 to 28 years. ESTIMATOR is a constant-parameter model that estimates trends only in concentration; WRTDS uses variable parameters estimated with weighted regression, and estimates trends in both concentration and flux. WRTDS had greater explanatory power than ESTIMATOR, with the greatest degree of improvement evident for records longer than 25 years (30 stations; improvement in median model R2= 0.06 for total nitrogen, 0.08 for total phosphorus, and 0.05 for sediment) and the least degree of improvement for records of less than 10 years, for which the two models performed nearly equally. Flux bias statistics were comparable or lower (more favorable) for WRTDS for any record length; for 30 stations with records longer than 25 years, the greatest degree of improvement was evident for sediment (decrease of 0.17 in median statistic) and total phosphorus (decrease of 0.05). The overall between-station pattern in concentration trend direction and magnitude for all constituents was roughly similar for both models. A detailed case study revealed that trends in concentration estimated by WRTDS can operationally be viewed as a less-constrained equivalent to trends in concentration estimated by ESTIMATOR. Estimates of annual mean flow

  18. Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection : A Computational Modeling Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false

  19. Changes in physical activity and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barakat, A.; Williams, K.M.; Prevost, A.T.; Kinmonth, A.L.; Wareham, N.J.; Griffin, S.J.; Simmons, R.K.

    2013-01-01

    Aims To describe change in physical activity over 1year and associations with change in cardiovascular disease risk factors in a population with screen-detected Type2 diabetes. Methods Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent measurement of self-reported

  20. A Model Policy on Employment, Professional Development, Institutional Integration, and Evaluation of Part-Time Faculty in the Public Two-Year College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayers, Holly M.

    2014-01-01

    For years, researchers and part-time faculty advocacy organizations have addressed the distinctive circumstances surrounding the inequitable workforce situation that continues to plague higher education. Regardless of the vast research that focuses on how and why the situation remains unchanged, few institutions have been proactive in seeking a…

  1. Estimation of parameters of finite seismic source model for selected event of West Bohemia year 2008 seismic swarm-methodology improvement and data extension

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kolář, Petr

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 4 (2015), s. 935-947 ISSN 1383-4649 Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : West Bohemia 2008 seismic swarm * finite seismic source * stopping phases Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure Impact factor: 1.550, year: 2015

  2. Mental Representations of the Text Surface, the Text Base, and the Situation Model in Auditory and Audiovisual Texts in 7-, 9-, and 11-Year-Olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wannagat, Wienke; Waizenegger, Gesine; Hauf, Juliane; Nieding, Gerhild

    2018-01-01

    This study investigated the effects of auditory and audiovisual text presentation on the three levels of mental representations assumed in theories of discourse processing. A sample of 106 children aged 7, 9, and 11 years listened to 16 short narrative texts, 8 of which were accompanied by a series of pictures illustrating the content.…

  3. An Examination of the Relationship between Gifted Students' Self-Image, Gifted Program Model, Years in the Program, and Academic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creasy, Lydia A.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the correlations between gifted students' self-image, academic achievement, and number of years enrolled in the gifted programming. In addition, the study examined the relationships between gifted students' educational placement, race, and gender with self-image. Study participants were gifted students in third through eighth…

  4. Assessing recovery from acidification of European surface waters in the year 2010: Evaluation of projections made with the MAGIC model in 1995

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Helliwell, R. C.; Wright, R. F.; Jackson-Blake, L.A.; Ferrier, R. C.; Aherne, J.; Cosby, B. J.; Evans, C. D.; Forsius, M.; Hruška, J.; Jenkins, A.; Krám, P.; Kopáček, Jiří; Majer, V.; Moldan, F.; Posch, M.; Potts, J. M.; Rogora, M.; Schöpp, W.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 48, č. 22 (2014), s. 13280-13288 ISSN 0013-936X Grant - others:EC(XE) RECOVER:2010 EVK1-CT-1999-00018 Institutional support: RVO:60077344 Keywords : atmospheric acidification * sulphur * nitrogen * Tatra Mountains Subject RIV: DJ - Water Pollution ; Quality Impact factor: 5.330, year: 2014

  5. Hypoxaemia in Mozambican children <5 years of age admitted to hospital with clinical severe pneumonia: clinical features and performance of predictor models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassat, Quique; Lanaspa, Miguel; Machevo, Sónia; O'Callaghan-Gordo, Cristina; Madrid, Lola; Nhampossa, Tacilta; Acácio, Sozinho; Roca, Anna; Alonso, Pedro L

    2016-09-01

    To determine the prevalence of hypoxaemia among under-five children admitted to hospital with clinical severe pneumonia and to assess the performance to diagnose hypoxaemia of models based on clinical signs. We conducted a hospital-based survey in a district hospital from Southern Mozambique. A total of 825 children were recruited after obtaining an informed consent. The prevalence of hypoxaemia on admission was 27.9%, and 19.8% of these children died (OR compared with non-hypoxaemic children 3.22, 95% CI 1.98-5.21, P < 0.001). The model with larger area under the ROC curve (AUC-ROC) to predict hypoxaemia included cyanosis or thoracoabdominal breathing or respiratory rate ≥70 breaths per minute. None of the models performed well when tested in different case scenarios of oxygen availability through mathematical modelling, with over 50% of hypoxaemic children not receiving oxygen even in favourable case scenarios. Clinical signs alone or in combination are not suitable to diagnose hypoxaemia. The use of pulse oximeters should be strongly encouraged. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Western root disease model simulation versus plot remeasurement: 11 years of change in stand structure and density induced by Armillaria root disease in Central Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helen M. Maffei; Gregory M. Filip; Kristen L. Chadwick; Lance David

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis was to use long term permanent plots to evaluate the short-term predictive capability of the Western Root Disease Model extension (WRDM) of the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) in central Oregon mixed-conifer forests in project planning situations. Measured (1991–2002) structure and density changes on a 100-acre unmanaged area in south-...

  7. The HTA Core Model®—10 Years of Developing an International Framework to Share Multidimensional Value Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Finn Børlum; Lampe, Kristian; Wild, Claudia

    2017-01-01

    Background and Objectives The HTA Core Model® as a science-based framework for assessing dimensions of value was developed as a part of the European network for Health Technology Assessment project in the period 2006 to 2008 to facilitate production and sharing of health technology assessment (HT...

  8. Local- and regional-scale air pollution modelling (PM10) and exposure assessment for pregnancy trimesters, infancy, and childhood to age 15 years: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliver, John; Elliott, Paul; Henderson, John; Hansell, Anna L; Vienneau, Danielle; Cai, Yutong; McCrea, Adrienne; Garwood, Kevin; Boyd, Andy; Neal, Lucy; Agnew, Paul; Fecht, Daniela; Briggs, David; de Hoogh, Kees

    2018-04-01

    We established air pollution modelling to study particle (PM 10 ) exposures during pregnancy and infancy (1990-1993) through childhood and adolescence up to age ~15 years (1991-2008) for the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents And Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. For pregnancy trimesters and infancy (birth to 6 months; 7 to 12 months) we used local (ADMS-Urban) and regional/long-range (NAME-III) air pollution models, with a model constant for local, non-anthropogenic sources. For longer exposure periods (annually and the average of birth to age ~8 and to age ~15 years to coincide with relevant follow-up clinics) we assessed spatial contrasts in local sources of PM 10 with a yearly-varying concentration for all background sources. We modelled PM 10 (μg/m 3 ) for 36,986 address locations over 19 years and then accounted for changes in address in calculating exposures for different periods: trimesters/infancy (n = 11,929); each year of life to age ~15 (n = 10,383). Intra-subject exposure contrasts were largest between pregnancy trimesters (5 th to 95 th centile: 24.4-37.3 μg/m 3 ) and mostly related to temporal variability in regional/long-range PM 10 . PM 10 exposures fell on average by 11.6 μg/m 3 from first year of life (mean concentration = 31.2 μg/m 3 ) to age ~15 (mean = 19.6 μg/m 3 ), and 5.4 μg/m 3 between follow-up clinics (age ~8 to age ~15). Spatial contrasts in 8-year average PM 10 exposures (5 th to 95 th centile) were relatively low: 25.4-30.0 μg/m 3 to age ~8 years and 20.7-23.9 μg/m 3 from age ~8 to age ~15 years. The contribution of local sources to total PM 10 was 18.5%-19.5% during pregnancy and infancy, and 14.4%-17.0% for periods leading up to follow-up clinics. Main roads within the study area contributed on average ~3.0% to total PM 10 exposures in all periods; 9.5% of address locations were within 50 m of a main road. Exposure estimates will be used in a number of planned epidemiological

  9. The influence of ice sheets on temperature during the past 38 million years inferred from a one-dimensional ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stap, Lennert B.; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.; de Boer, Bas; Bintanja, Richard; Lourens, Lucas J.

    2017-09-01

    Since the inception of the Antarctic ice sheet at the Eocene-Oligocene transition (˜ 34 Myr ago), land ice has played a crucial role in Earth's climate. Through feedbacks in the climate system, land ice variability modifies atmospheric temperature changes induced by orbital, topographical, and greenhouse gas variations. Quantification of these feedbacks on long timescales has hitherto scarcely been undertaken. In this study, we use a zonally averaged energy balance climate model bidirectionally coupled to a one-dimensional ice sheet model, capturing the ice-albedo and surface-height-temperature feedbacks. Potentially important transient changes in topographic boundary conditions by tectonics and erosion are not taken into account but are briefly discussed. The relative simplicity of the coupled model allows us to perform integrations over the past 38 Myr in a fully transient fashion using a benthic oxygen isotope record as forcing to inversely simulate CO2. Firstly, we find that the results of the simulations over the past 5 Myr are dependent on whether the model run is started at 5 or 38 Myr ago. This is because the relation between CO2 and temperature is subject to hysteresis. When the climate cools from very high CO2 levels, as in the longer transient 38 Myr run, temperatures in the lower CO2 range of the past 5 Myr are higher than when the climate is initialised at low temperatures. Consequently, the modelled CO2 concentrations depend on the initial state. Taking the realistic warm initialisation into account, we come to a best estimate of CO2, temperature, ice-volume-equivalent sea level, and benthic δ18O over the past 38 Myr. Secondly, we study the influence of ice sheets on the evolution of global temperature and polar amplification by comparing runs with ice sheet-climate interaction switched on and off. By passing only albedo or surface height changes to the climate model, we can distinguish the separate effects of the ice-albedo and surface

  10. Predictive Modeling of Two-Year Potency Outcomes via a Novel 90-Day Percent Fullness Scale after Robot-Assisted Radical Prostatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huynh, Linda M; Osann, Kathryn; Skarecky, Douglas; Ahlering, Thomas E

    2018-03-09

    To introduce a patient-reported erection fullness scale (% fullness) following robot-assisted radical prostatectomy as a qualitative adjunct to the IIEF-5 and as a 90-day predictor of two-year potency outcomes. Prospective data was collected from 540 men with preoperative IIEF-5 22-25 who underwent RARP by a single surgeon, of which 299 had complete data at all time points up to 2 years. In addition to standard assessment tools (IIEF-5 and erections sufficient for intercourse), patients were asked to "indicate the fullness you are able to achieve in erections compared to before surgery?" (0-10…100%). The primary outcome was prediction of potency (defined as ESI) at 24 months, based on 90-day % fullness (0-24%, 25-74%, and 75-100%). 299 men with complete follow-up were included. Significant predictors of 24 month potency included age, BMI, pathologic stage, nerve-sparing status, and % fullness tertiles. When men (pre-op IIEF-5 22-25) were assessed at 90 days post-RARP, 181/299 (61%) men had erections inadequate for intercourse. If IIEF-5 scores 1-6 is used, 142/181 (78%) would be targeted for early intervention. In distinction, if 0-24% fullness is used, 88/181 (49%) are targeted. If both the IIEF-5 and % fullness are used, this is reduced to 77/181 (43%). We introduce % fullness as a qualitative adjunct to the IIEF-5 and separately as a 90-day predictor of two-year potency recovery. This initial report is hypothesis-generating such that the use of % fullness enables the identification of men most likely to benefit from early, secondary intervention. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  11. Using multi-year reanalysis-derived recharge rates to drive a groundwater model for the Lake Tana region of Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokou, Z.; Kheirabadi, M.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Moges, S. A.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2017-12-01

    Ethiopia's high inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that stress local communities and lead to economic and food insecurity. Better predictions of water availability can supply farmers and water management authorities with critical guidance, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions that will in turn ensure food and water security in the region. The work presented here focuses on the development and calibration of a groundwater model of the Lake Tana region, one of the most important sub-basins of the Blue Nile River Basin. Groundwater recharge, which is the major groundwater source in the area, depends mainly on the seasonality of precipitation and the spatial variation in geology. Given that land based precipitation data are sparse in the region, two approaches for estimating groundwater recharge were used and compared that both utilize global atmospheric reanalysis driven by remote sensing datasets. In the first approach, the reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF reanalysis adjusted based on GPCC) together with evapotranspiration and surface run-off estimates are used to calculate the groundwater recharge component using water budget equations. In the second approach, groundwater recharge estimates (subsurface runoff) are taken directly from a Land Surface model (FLDAS Noah), provided at a monthly time scale and 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ spatial resolution. The reanalysis derived recharge rates in both cases are incorporated into the groundwater model MODFLOW, which in combination with a Lake module that simulates the Lake water budget, offers a unique capability of improving the predictability of groundwater and lake levels in the Lake Tana basin. Model simulations using the two approaches are compared against in-situ observations of groundwater and lake levels. This modeling effort can be further used to explore climate variability effects on groundwater and lake levels and provide guidance to

  12. The performance of model-based versus rule-based phase I clinical trials in oncology : A quantitative comparison of the performance of model-based versus rule-based phase I trials with molecularly targeted anticancer drugs over the last 2 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Brummelen, E M J; Huitema, A D R; van Werkhoven, E; Beijnen, J H; Schellens, J H M

    Phase I studies with anticancer drugs are used to evaluate safety and tolerability and to choose a recommended phase II dose (RP2D). Traditionally, phase I trial designs are rule-based, but for several years there is a trend towards model-based designs. Simulations have shown that model-based

  13. Modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Spädtke, P

    2013-01-01

    Modeling of technical machines became a standard technique since computer became powerful enough to handle the amount of data relevant to the specific system. Simulation of an existing physical device requires the knowledge of all relevant quantities. Electric fields given by the surrounding boundary as well as magnetic fields caused by coils or permanent magnets have to be known. Internal sources for both fields are sometimes taken into account, such as space charge forces or the internal magnetic field of a moving bunch of charged particles. Used solver routines are briefly described and some bench-marking is shown to estimate necessary computing times for different problems. Different types of charged particle sources will be shown together with a suitable model to describe the physical model. Electron guns are covered as well as different ion sources (volume ion sources, laser ion sources, Penning ion sources, electron resonance ion sources, and H$^-$-sources) together with some remarks on beam transport.

  14. Using twelve years of USGS refraction lines to calibrate the Brocher and others (1997) 3D velocity model of the Bay Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boatwright, John; Blair, Luke; Catchings, Rufus; Goldman, Mark; Perosi, Fabio; Steedman, Clare

    2004-01-01

    Campbell (1983) demonstrated that site amplification correlates with depths to the 1.0, 1.5, and 2.5 km/s S-wave velocity horizons. To estimate these depths for the Bay Area stations in the PEER/NGA database, we compare the depths to the 3.2 and 4.4 km/s P-wave velocities in the Brocher and others (1997) 3D velocity model with the depths to these horizons determined from 6 refraction lines shot in the Bay Area from 1991 to 2003. These refraction lines range from two recent 20 km lines that extend from Los Gatos to downtown San Jose, and from downtown San Jose into Alum Rock Park, to two older 200 km lines than run axially from Hollister up the San Francisco Peninsula to Inverness and from Hollister up the East Bay across San Pablo Bay to Santa Rosa. Comparison of these cross-sections with the Brocher and others (1997) model indicates that the 1.5 km/s S-wave horizon, which we correlate with the 3.2 km/s P-wave horizon, is the most reliable horizon that can be extracted from the Brocher and others (1997) velocity model. We determine simple adjustments to bring the Brocher and others (1997) 3.2 and 4.4 km/s P-wave horizons into an average agreement with the refraction results. Then we apply these adjustments to estimate depths to the 1.5 and 2.5 km/s S-wave horizons beneath the strong motion stations in the PEER/NGA database.

  15. Greenhouse gas emissions and stocks of soil carbon and nitrogen from a 20-year fertilised wheat-maize intercropping system: A model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xubo; Xu, Minggang; Liu, Jian; Sun, Nan; Wang, Boren; Wu, Lianhai

    2016-02-01

    Accurate modelling of agricultural management impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and the cycling of carbon and nitrogen is complicated due to interactions between various processes and the disturbance caused by field management. In this study, a process-based model, the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum System (SPACSYS), was used to simulate the effects of different fertilisation regimes on crop yields, the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (SN) stocks from 1990 to 2010, and soil CO2 (2007-2010) and N2O (2007-2008) emissions based on a long-term fertilisation experiment with a winter-wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) and summer-maize (Zea mays L.) intercropping system in Eutric Cambisol (FAO) soil in southern China. Three fertilisation treatments were 1) unfertilised (Control), 2) chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), and 3) NPK plus pig manure (NPKM). Statistical analyses indicated that the SPACSYS model can reasonably simulate the yields of wheat and maize, the evolution of SOC and SN stocks and soil CO2 and N2O emissions. The simulations showed that the NPKM treatment had the highest values of crop yields, SOC and SN stocks, and soil CO2 and N2O emissions were the lowest from the Control treatment. Furthermore, the simulated results showed that manure amendment along with chemical fertiliser applications led to both C (1017 ± 470 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) and N gains (91.7 ± 15.1 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) in the plant-soil system, while the Control treatment caused a slight loss in C and N. In conclusion, the SPACSYS model can accurately simulate the processes of C and N as affected by various fertilisation treatments in the red soil. Furthermore, application of chemical fertilisers plus manure could be a suitable management for ensuring crop yield and sustaining soil fertility in the red soil region, but the ratio of chemical fertilisers to manure should be optimized to reduce C and N losses to the environment. Copyright © 2015

  16. Comparison of a Drug‐Free Early Programmed Dismantling PDLLA Bioresorbable Scaffold and a Metallic Stent in a Porcine Coronary Artery Model at 3‐Year Follow‐Up

    OpenAIRE

    Yahagi, Kazuyuki; Yang, Yi; Torii, Sho; Mensah, Johanne; White, Roseann M.; Mathieu, Marion; Pacheco, Erica; Nakano, Masataka; Barakat, Abdul; Sharkawi, Tahmer; Vert, Michel; Joner, Michael; Finn, Aloke V.; Virmani, Renu; Lafont, Antoine

    2017-01-01

    Background Arterial Remodeling Technologies bioresorbable scaffold (ART‐BRS), composed of l‐ and d‐lactyl units without drug, has shown its safety in a porcine coronary model at 6 months. However, long‐term performance remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ART‐BRS compared to a bare metal stent (BMS) in a healthy porcine coronary model for up to 3 years. Methods and Results Eighty‐two ART‐BRS and 66 BMS were implanted in 64 Yucatan swine, and animals were euthanatized at ...

  17. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  18. Modeling CH4 Emissions from Natural Wetlands on the Tibetan Plateau over the Past 60 Years: Influence of Climate Change and Wetland Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Li

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The natural wetlands of the Tibetan Plateau (TP are considered to be an important natural source of methane (CH4 to the atmosphere. The long-term variation in CH4 associated with climate change and wetland loss is still largely unknown. From 1950 to 2010, CH4 emissions over the TP were analyzed using a model framework that integrates CH4MODwetland, TOPMODEL, and TEM models. Our simulation revealed a total increase of 15% in CH4 fluxes, from 6.1 g m−2 year−1 to 7.0 g m−2 year−1. This change was primarily induced by increases in temperature and precipitation. Although climate change has accelerated CH4 fluxes, the total amount of regional CH4 emissions decreased by approximately 20% (0.06 Tg—i.e., from 0.28 Tg in the 1950s to 0.22 Tg in the 2000s, due to the loss of 1.41 million ha of wetland. Spatially, both CH4 fluxes and regional CH4 emissions showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest of the study area. Lower CH4 emissions occurred in the northwestern Plateau, while the highest emissions occurred in the eastern edge. Overall, our results highlighted the fact that wetland loss decreased the CH4 emissions by approximately 20%, even though climate change has accelerated the overall CH4 emission rates over the last six decades.

  19. Connecting Past to Present and Watersheds to Ocean: Modeling 165 Years of Incremental Changes to Flows into the San Francisco Bay Delta System

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacVean, L. J.; Thompson, S. E.; Huttom, P. H.; Sivapalan, M.

    2016-02-01

    California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sits at the intersection of vast agricultural and population centers, and supplies fresh water for the diverse and often competing needs of ecosystems, farmers, and millions of Californians. Managing and allocating this resource is a complex feat of economics, politics, and engineering, made increasingly contentious by the ongoing drought. The objective of this research is to augment the scientific foundation of management decisions by addressing the question of how flows into the Delta have evolved in response to human intervention since 1850. In particular, quantifying the dynamic components of water usage through vegetative uptake and evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, flood conveyance, and water exports at incremental levels of development is a key ambition. This approach emphasizes the built environment, which is subject to the local regulatory framework, rather than climate change, which is generally considered immovable without united global effort. This work encompasses the creation of a hydrologic model representing the watersheds of the San Francisco Bay-Delta system, and quantifies the impacts of changes in land use and the gradual construction of levees, reservoirs, and diversion infrastructure. The model is run using the same climatological forcing at each level of development, thus elucidating the effects of local anthropogenic activity on the Delta and the inflows to the San Francisco Bay estuary. Our results provide a timeline of change, giving decision-makers a scientifically established baseline to aid in the sustainable management of the Bay-Delta system.

  20. Formation of Mobilization Model and Macroeconomic Dynamics of the USSR During the First Five-Year Period and the Great Patriotic War

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheremisinov Georgiy Aleksandrovich

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The research of origin and functioning of mobilization model of economy is possible on the basis of the hypothesis about the government entrepreneurship as a typological sign of Russian economy development, the concept of threshold changes of macroeconomic dynamics, methodology of a chronotope and the theory of interrelation of the government organization of accumulation of the capital, industrialization, militarization, economic and territorial expansion of state power. Socio-economic reforming in our country was connected with threshold levels of impact of the government on economy that is confirmed by the analysis of macroeconomic conditions of emergence of the centralized planned management of a national economy. System transformations of the Russian economy to the revolutionary-military period (1914-1920 in the second half of the 1920s – early 1930s, in the period of the Great Patriotic War were carried out by the ruling power for the purpose of increase in quantity of the benefits, services, factors of production appropriated, distributed or used in its interests. The level of the centralized withdrawal of resources on irretrievable military expenses and on investments into industrialization of the power defined macroeconomic dynamics and extent of reorganization of a market mechanism of regulation of a domestic national economy. The mobilization model of directive planned management of a national economy created as a result of reforms of the beginning of the 1930s provided an economic basis of the USSR victory in the Great Patriotic War.

  1. Estimated radiation exposure of German commercial airline cabin crew in the years 1960-2003 modeled using dose registry data for 2004-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollschläger, Daniel; Hammer, Gaël Paul; Schafft, Thomas; Dreger, Steffen; Blettner, Maria; Zeeb, Hajo

    2018-05-01

    Exposure to ionizing radiation of cosmic origin is an occupational risk factor in commercial aircrew. In a historic cohort of 26,774 German aircrew, radiation exposure was previously estimated only for cockpit crew using a job-exposure matrix (JEM). Here, a new method for retrospectively estimating cabin crew dose is developed. The German Federal Radiation Registry (SSR) documents individual monthly effective doses for all aircrew. SSR-provided doses on 12,941 aircrew from 2004 to 2015 were used to model cabin crew dose as a function of age, sex, job category, solar activity, and male pilots' dose; the mean annual effective dose was 2.25 mSv (range 0.01-6.39 mSv). In addition to an inverse association with solar activity, exposure followed age- and sex-dependent patterns related to individual career development and life phases. JEM-derived annual cockpit crew doses agreed with SSR-provided doses for 2004 (correlation 0.90, 0.40 mSv root mean squared error), while the estimated average annual effective dose for cabin crew had a prediction error of 0.16 mSv, equaling 7.2% of average annual dose. Past average annual cabin crew dose can be modeled by exploiting systematic external influences as well as individual behavioral determinants of radiation exposure, thereby enabling future dose-response analyses of the full aircrew cohort including measurement error information.

  2. The First Eighteen Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, a workshop held in Budapest, Hungary (28-30th September 2006).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A; Pusztai, László

    2007-08-22

    This Special Issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the third workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on hills overlooking Budapest at the end of September 2006. Over forty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community [1]. It is particularly suitable for studies of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, although it may also be applied effectively to the structural analysis of disordered crystalline systems. Since the previous RMC workshop in 2003 [2] there have been several developments in the technique, particularly as applied to crystals, and in the range of its application, most noticeable being the routine modelling of multiple data sets for a given problem; the latter growing through the increasing quality and availability of x-ray total scattering data from synchrotron x-ray sources. The RMC workshop was particularly beneficial, providing a forum for those workers in the field to take stock of past achievements and to look forward to future developments. It is our hope that the collection of papers within this Special Issue will also communicate this to the wider scientific community, providing a balance between papers that have more of an introductory review flavour and those that concentrate on current state of the art research opportunities using the RMC method. Furthermore, by including a small number of papers from colleagues working on similar disordered problems with complementary analysis techniques, we hope that the RMC method may be placed in a broader scientific context. The papers within this special issue have been arranged into four groups

  3. Short-stay rural and remote placements in dental education, an effective model for rural exposure: a review of eight-year experience in Western Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

    2010-08-01

    The increase in demand for dental care over the next 10 years is expected to outstrip the supply of dental visits in Australia, resulting in an ongoing shortage of dental practitioners. As trends in medicine have shown, the greatest effect will be felt in rural and remote regions, where an undersupply of dentists already exists. It is clearly evident that it is important to provide strategies that will increase the recruitment and retention of practitioners in rural and remote areas. Previous research suggested an increased likelihood for health graduates to choose rural practice if they have a rural background, or were exposed to rural practice during their education. Short-stay (three to four weeks) placements for final-year dental students has been part of dental education in Western Australia for near on a decade. This paper reflects on the experiences gained from managing this placement program. Short-stay placements are a quality learning initiative but need a high level of planning and a clear vision to be effective. The key factors in ensuring sustainable, student centred learning is driven through a small core group of staff who have strong direct links with rural and remote communities, students and support providers. The integration of service, education and research goals have played a critical role in sustaining placements. The philosophy underpinning the rural placements needs to be clearly articulated and applied effectively in each step of their implementation and a highly focused customer-service driven implementation is required to make short-stay rural and remote placements effective.

  4. A 60-year reconstructed high-resolution local meteorological data set in Central Sahel (1950-2009): evaluation, analysis and application to land surface modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leauthaud, Crystele; Cappelaere, Bernard; Demarty, Jérôme; Guichard, Françoise; Velluet, Cécile; Kergoat, Laurent; Vischel, Théo; Grippa, Manuela; Mouhaimouni, Mohammed; Bouzou Moussa, Ibrahim; Mainassara, Ibrahim; Sultan, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    The Sahel has experienced strong climate variability in the past decades. Understanding its implications for natural and cultivated ecosystems is pivotal in a context of high population growth and mainly agriculture-based livelihoods. However, efforts to model processes at the land-atmosphere interface are hindered, particularly when the multi-decadal timescale is targeted, as climatic data are scarce, largely incomplete and often unreliable. This study presents the generation of a long-term, high-temporal resolution, multivariate local climatic data set for Niamey, Central Sahel. The continuous series spans the period 1950-2009 at a 30-min timescale and includes ground station-based meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature, relative and specific humidity, air pressure, wind speed, downwelling long- and short-wave radiation) as well as process-modelled surface fluxes (upwelling long- and short-wave radiation,latent, sensible and soil heat fluxes and surface temperature). A combination of complementary techniques (linear/spline regressions, a multivariate analogue method, artificial neural networks and recursive gap filling) was used to reconstruct missing meteorological data. The complete surface energy budget was then obtained for two dominant land cover types, fallow bush and millet, by applying the meteorological forcing data set to a finely field-calibrated land surface model. Uncertainty in reconstructed data was expressed by means of a stochastic ensemble of plausible historical time series. Climatological statistics were computed at sub-daily to decadal timescales and compared with local, regional and global data sets such as CRU and ERA-Interim. The reconstructed precipitation statistics, ˜1°C increase in mean annual temperature from 1950 to 2009, and mean diurnal and annual cycles for all variables were in good agreement with previous studies. The new data set, denoted NAD (Niamey Airport-derived set) and publicly available, can be used

  5. Rheological behavior of the crust and mantle in subduction zones in the time-scale range from earthquake (minute) to mln years inferred from thermomechanical model and geodetic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, Stephan; Muldashev, Iskander

    2016-04-01

    The key achievement of the geodynamic modelling community greatly contributed by the work of Evgenii Burov and his students is application of "realistic" mineral-physics based non-linear rheological models to simulate deformation processes in crust and mantle. Subduction being a type example of such process is an essentially multi-scale phenomenon with the time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. In this study we test the possibility to simulate the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (Mln yr) with the single cross-scale thermomechanical model that employs elasticity, mineral-physics constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. First we generate a thermo-mechanical model of subduction zone at geological time-scale including a narrow subduction channel with "wet-quartz" visco-elasto-plastic rheology and low static friction. We next introduce in the same model classic rate-and state friction l