Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bedia

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed.

In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity.

As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2015-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahima Diouf

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM, driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be

Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

2017-09-25

The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized reanalysis (4x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

2018-01-01

Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context

Characterization of the variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone using satellite and reanalysis wind products

Science.gov (United States)

Kidwell, Autumn; Lee, Tong; Jo, Young-Heon; Yan, Xiao-hai

2016-04-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), the largest rain band worldwide during austral summer, is important to atmospheric circulation (including cyclone genesis) and ocean circulation. Previous studies of the SPCZ have focused on parameters such as outgoing longwave radiation or precipitation. However, wind convergence is fundamental causing the variations of these parameters. In this study, the SPCZ variability is examined using ocean surface wind products derived from NASA's QuickSCAT (1999-2009) and ESA's ASCAT (2007 onward) satellite scatterometers and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis (1981 onward). From these products, indices were developed to characterize the SPCZ strength, area, and centroid location. Excellent agreement is found in terms of the temporal variations of the indices derived from the satellites and reanalysis wind products, despite some small differences in the time-mean SPCZ strength. The SPCZ strength, area, and centroid latitude have a dominant seasonal cycle. In contrast, the SPCZ centroid longitude is dominated by intraseasonal variability due to the influence by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The SPCZ indices are all correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. Interannual and intraseasonal variations of SPCZ strength during strong El Niño are approximately twice as large as the respective seasonal variations. SPCZ strength depends more on the intensity of El Niño rather than the central- vs. eastern-Pacific type. The longer ERA-Interim product is also used to examine decadal variations of the SPCZ indices. The change from positive to negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase around 1999 resulted in a westward shift of the SPCZ centroid longitude, much smaller interannual swing in centroid latitude, and a decrease in SPCZ area. This study improves the understanding of the variations of the SPCZ on multiple time scales and reveals the variations of SPCZ strength not reported previously. The diagnostics analyses can be

The high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.

2016-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers the past 20 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

Science.gov (United States)

Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

2016-12-01

We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

Evaluation of a High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis for Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Ohlwein, C.; Wahl, S.; Keller, J. D.; Bollmeyer, C.

2014-12-01

Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. The regional reanalysis for Europe matches the domain of the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km) and comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO complemented by a special soil moisture analysis with boundary conditions provided by ERA-Interim data. The reanalysis data set covers 6 years (2007-2012) and is currently extended to 16 years. Extensive evaluation of the reanalysis is performed using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations indicating a better representation of small scale variability. Further, the evaluation shows an added value of the regional reanalysis with respect to the forcing ERA Interim reanalysis and compared to a pure high-resolution dynamical downscaling approach without data assimilation.

Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liselotte Bach

2016-11-01

Full Text Available A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERA-Interim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of six-hourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA.

A ground temperature map of the North Atlantic permafrost region based on remote sensing and reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Westermann, S.; Østby, T. I.; Gisnås, K.

2015-01-01

Permafrost is a key element of the terrestrial cryosphere which makes mapping and monitoring of its state variables an imperative task. We present a modeling scheme based on remotely sensed land surface temperatures and reanalysis products from which mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) can be ...... with gradually decreasing permafrost probabilities. The study exemplifies the unexploited potential of remotely sensed data sets in permafrost mapping if they are employed in multi-sensor multi-source data fusion approaches.......Permafrost is a key element of the terrestrial cryosphere which makes mapping and monitoring of its state variables an imperative task. We present a modeling scheme based on remotely sensed land surface temperatures and reanalysis products from which mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) can...

The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.; Collins, W.; Deaven, D.; Gandin, L.; Iredell, M.; Saha, S.; White, G.; Woollen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Leetmaa, A.; Reynolds, B.; Chelliah, M.; Ebisuzaki, W.; Higgins, W.; Janowiak, J.; Mo, K. C.; Ropelewski, C.; Wang, J.; Jenne, Roy; Joseph, Dennis

1996-03-01

The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted "reanalysis") to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957-96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system.The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided by different countries and organizations. The system has been designed with advanced quality control and monitoring components, and can produce 1 mon of reanalysis per day on a Cray YMP/8 supercomputer. Different types of output archives are being created to satisfy different user needs, including a "quick look" CD-ROM (one per year) with six tropospheric and stratospheric fields available twice daily, as well as surface, top-of-the-atmosphere, and isentropic fields. Reanalysis information and selected output is also available on-line via the Internet (http//:nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000). A special CD-ROM, containing 13 years of selected observed, daily, monthly, and climatological data from the NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis, is included with this issue. Output variables are classified into four classes, depending on the degree to which they are influenced by the observations and/or the model. For example, "C" variables (such as precipitation and surface fluxes) are completely determined

Japanese 25-year reanalysis (JRA-25)

Science.gov (United States)

Ohkawara, Nozomu

2006-12-01

A long term global atmospheric reanalysis Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) which covers from 1979 to 2004 was completed using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) numerical assimilation and forecast system. This is the first long term reanalysis undertaken in Asia. JMA's latest numerical assimilation system, and observational data collected as much as possible, were used in JRA-25 to generate a consistent and high quality reanalysis dataset to contribute to climate research and operational work. One purpose of JRA-25 is to enhance to a high quality the analysis in the Asian region. 6-hourly data assimilation cycles were performed and produced 6-hourly atmospheric analysis and forecast fields with various kinds of physical variables. The global model used in JRA-25 has a spectral resolution of T106 (equivalent to a horizontal grid size of around 120km) and 40 vertical layers with the top level at 0.4hPa. For observational data, a great deal of satellite data was used in addition to conventional surface and upper air data. Atmospheric Motion Vector (AMV) data retrieved from geostationary satellites, brightness temperature (TBB) data from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), precipitable water retrieved from radiance of microwave radiometer from orbital satellites and some other satellite data were assimilated with 3-dimensional variational method (3DVAR). Many advantages have been found in the JRA-25 reanalysis. Firstly, forecast 6-hour global total precipitation in JRA-25 performs well, distribution and amount are properly represented both in space and time. JRA-25 has the best performance compared to other reanalysis with respect to time series of global precipitation over many years, with few unrealistic variations caused by degraded quality of satellite data due to volcanic eruptions. Secondly, JRA-25 is the first reanalysis which assimilated wind profiles surrounding tropical cyclones retrieved from historical best track information; tropical cyclones

Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

Science.gov (United States)

Manney, Gloria L.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Wargan, Krzysztof; Millán, Luis F.; Schwartz, Michael J.; Santee, Michelle L.; Lambert, Alyn; Pawson, Steven; Knosp, Brian W.; Fuller, Ryan A.; Daffer, William H.

2017-09-01

The representation of upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex), and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications), ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis), JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution - for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution) typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis) a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution) shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in UTLS jet and

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region

Science.gov (United States)

Bentzien, Sabrina; Bollmeyer, Christoph; Crewell, Susanne; Friederichs, Petra; Hense, Andreas; Keller, Jan; Keune, Jessica; Kneifel, Stefan; Ohlwein, Christian; Pscheidt, Ieda; Redl, Stephanie; Steinke, Sandra

2014-05-01

A High-resolution Reanalysis for the European CORDEX Region Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Meteorological Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on the regional reanalysis for Europe with a domain matching the CORDEX-EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). The COSMO reanalysis system comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-interim data. The reanalysis data set currently covers 6 years (2007-2012). The evaluation of the reanalyses is done using independent observations with special emphasis on precipitation and high-impact weather situations. The development and evaluation of the COSMO-based reanalysis for the CORDEX-Euro domain can be seen as a preparation for joint European activities on the development of an ensemble system of regional reanalyses for Europe.

An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

2018-03-01

The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

2017-10-01

Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

Recent Reanalysis Activities at ECMWF: Results from ERA-20C and Plans for ERA5

Science.gov (United States)

Dragani, R.; Hersbach, H.; Poli, P.; Pebeuy, C.; Hirahara, S.; Simmons, A.; Dee, D.

2015-12-01

This presentation will provide an overview of the most recent reanalysis activities performed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). A pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century (ERA-20C) has recently been completed. Funded through the European FP7 collaborative project ERA-CLIM, ERA-20C is part of a suite of experiments that also includes a model-only integration (ERA-20CM) and a land-surface reanalysis (ERA-20CL). Its data assimilation system is constrained by only surface observations obtained from ISPD (3.2.6) and ICOADS (2.5.1). Surface boundary conditions are provided by the Hadley Centre (HadISST2.1.0.0) and radiative forcing follows CMIP5 recommended data sets. First-guess uncertainty estimates are based on a 10-member ensemble of Data Assimilations, ERA-20C ensemble, run prior to ERA-20C using ten SST and sea-ice realizations from the Hadley Centre. In November 2014, the European Commission entrusted ECMWF to run on its behalf the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) aiming at producing quality-assured information about the past, current and future states of the climate at both European and global scales. Reanalysis will be one of the main components of the C3S portfolio and the first one to be produced is a global modern era reanalysis (ERA5) covering the period from 1979 onwards. Based on a recent version of the ECMWF data assimilation system, ERA5 will replace the widely used ERA-Interim dataset. This new production will benefit from a much improved model, and better characterized and exploited observations compared to its predecessor. The first part of the presentation will focus on the ERA-20C production, provide an overview of its main characteristics and discuss some of the key results from its assessment. The second part of the talk will give an overview of ERA5, and briefly discuss some of its challenges.

A reanalysis dataset of the South China Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Xuezhi; Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Zhijin; Qi, Yiquan; Chen, Rongyu

2014-01-01

Ocean reanalysis provides a temporally continuous and spatially gridded four-dimensional estimate of the ocean state for a better understanding of the ocean dynamics and its spatial/temporal variability. Here we present a 19-year (1992–2010) high-resolution ocean reanalysis dataset of the upper ocean in the South China Sea (SCS) produced from an ocean data assimilation system. A wide variety of observations, including in-situ temperature/salinity profiles, ship-measured and satellite-derived sea surface temperatures, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimetry, are assimilated into the outputs of an ocean general circulation model using a multi-scale incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, yielding a daily high-resolution reanalysis dataset of the SCS. Comparisons between the reanalysis and independent observations support the reliability of the dataset. The presented dataset provides the research community of the SCS an important data source for studying the thermodynamic processes of the ocean circulation and meso-scale features in the SCS, including their spatial and temporal variability. PMID:25977803

NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NARR dataset is an extension of the NCEP Global Reanalysis which is run over the North American Region. The NARR model uses the very high resolution NCEP Eta...

Downscaling reanalysis data to high-resolution variables above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Hofer, Marlis; Mölg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-05-01

month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8, but the mixed-field predictors generally perform better than the single-field predictors. At all time scales, the ESD model shows added value against two simple reference models; (i) the direct use of reanalysis grid point values, and (ii) mean diurnal and seasonal cycles over the calibration period. The ESD model forecast 1960 to 2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type. So far, we have not assessed the performance of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data against other reanalysis products. The developed ESD model is computationally cheap and applicable wherever measurements are available for model calibration.

Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, P.; Zucker, A.; Careri, F.; Huld, T.; Badger, J.

2017-01-01

Highlights: •Wind speed spatial resolution highly influences calculated wind power peaks and ramps. •Reduction of wind power generation uncertainties using statistical downscaling. •Publicly available dataset of wind power generation hourly time series at NUTS2. -- Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from solar and mainly wind resources constantly increases the stochastic nature of the power system. Modelling the high share of renewable energy sources – and in particular wind power – crucially depends on the adequate representation of the intermittency and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can simulate wind speeds at higher spatial resolution (up to 1 × 1 km) than a reanalysis (generally, ranging from about 25 km to 70 km), they require high computational resources and massive storage systems: therefore, the most common alternative is to use the reanalysis data. However, local wind features could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured by different wind speeds spatial resolution datasets, the importance of using high resolution data for the conversion into power and the implications in power system analyses. It is proposed a methodology to increase the spatial resolution from a reanalysis. This study presents an open access renewable generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative

Mass Balance Modelling of Saskatchewan Glacier, Canada Using Empirically Downscaled Reanalysis Data

Science.gov (United States)

Larouche, O.; Kinnard, C.; Demuth, M. N.

2017-12-01

Observations show that glaciers around the world are retreating. As sites with long-term mass balance observations are scarce, models are needed to reconstruct glacier mass balance and assess its sensitivity to climate. In regions with discontinuous and/or sparse meteorological data, high-resolution climate reanalysis data provide a convenient alternative to in situ weather observations, but can also suffer from strong bias due to the spatial and temporal scale mismatch. In this study we used data from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) project with a 30 x 30 km spatial resolution and 3-hour temporal resolution to produce the meteorological forcings needed to drive a physically-based, distributed glacier mass balance model (DEBAM, Hock and Holmgren 2005) for the historical period 1979-2016. A two-year record from an automatic weather station (AWS) operated on Saskatchewan Glacier (2014-2016) was used to downscale air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and incoming solar radiation from the nearest NARR gridpoint to the glacier AWS site. An homogenized historical precipitation record was produced using data from two nearby, low-elevation weather stations and used to downscale the NARR precipitation data. Three bias correction methods were applied (scaling, delta and empirical quantile mapping - EQM) and evaluated using split sample cross-validation. The EQM method gave better results for precipitation and for air temperature. Only a slight improvement in the relative humidity was obtained using the scaling method, while none of the methods improved the wind speed. The later correlates poorly with AWS observations, probably because the local glacier wind is decoupled from the larger scale NARR wind field. The downscaled data was used to drive the DEBAM model in order to reconstruct the mass balance of Saskatchewan Glacier over the past 30 years. The model was validated using recent snow thickness measurements and previously published geodetic mass

On the impact of using downscaled reanalysis data instead of direct measurements for modeling the mass balance of a tropical glacier (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Galos, Stephan; Hofer, Marlis; Marzeion, Ben; Mölg, Thomas; Großhauser, Martin

2013-04-01

Due to their setting, tropical glaciers are sensitive indicators of mid-tropospheric meteorological variability and climate change. Furthermore these glaciers are of particular interest because they respond faster to climatic changes than glaciers located in mid- or high-latitudes. As long-term direct meteorological measurements in such remote environments are scarce, reanalysis data (e.g. ERA-Interim) provide a highly valuable source of information. Reanalysis datasets (i) enable a temporal extension of data records gained by direct measurements and (ii) provide information from regions where direct measurements are not available. In order to properly derive the physical exchange processes between glaciers and atmosphere from reanalysis data, downscaling procedures are required. In the present study we investigate if downscaled atmospheric variables (air temperature and relative humidity) from a reanalysis dataset can be used as input for a physically based, high resolution energy and mass balance model. We apply a well validated empirical-statistical downscaling model, fed with ERA-Interim data, to an automated weather station (AWS) on the surface of Glaciar Artesonraju (8.96° S | 77.63° W). The downscaled data is then used to replace measured air temperature and relative humidity in the input for the energy and mass balance model, which was calibrated using ablation data from stakes and a sonic ranger. In order to test the sensitivity of the modeled mass balance to the downscaled data, the results are compared to a reference model run driven solely with AWS data as model input. We finally discuss the results and present future perspectives for further developing this method.

Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

Science.gov (United States)

León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

2012-04-01

One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Gelaro, Ron

2018-01-01

Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be

SST algorithms in ACSPO reanalysis of AVHRR GAC data from 2002-2013

Science.gov (United States)

Petrenko, B.; Ignatov, A.; Kihai, Y.; Zhou, X.; Stroup, J.

2014-05-01

In response to a request from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch Program, NOAA SST Team initiated reprocessing of 4 km resolution GAC data from AVHRRs flown onboard NOAA and MetOp satellites. The objective is to create a longterm Level 2 Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO) SST product, consistent with NOAA operations. ACSPO-Reanalysis (RAN) is used as input in the NOAA geo-polar blended Level 4 SST and potentially other Level 4 SST products. In the first stage of reprocessing (reanalysis 1, or RAN1), data from NOAA-15, -16, -17, -18, -19, and Metop-A and -B, from 2002-present have been processed with ACSPO v2.20, and matched up with quality controlled in situ data from in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam) version 1. The ~12 years time series of matchups were used to develop and explore the SST retrieval algorithms, with emphasis on minimizing spatial biases in retrieved SSTs, close reproduction of the magnitudes of true SST variations, and maximizing temporal, spatial and inter-platform stability of retrieval metrics. Two types of SST algorithms were considered: conventional SST regressions, and recently developed incremental regressions. The conventional equations were adopted in the EUMETSAT OSI-SAF formulation, which, according to our previous analyses, provide relatively small regional biases and well-balanced combination of precision and sensitivity, in its class. Incremental regression equations were specifically elaborated to automatically correct for model minus observation biases, always present when RTM simulations are employed. Improved temporal stability was achieved by recalculation of SST coefficients from matchups on a daily basis, with a +/-45 day window around the current date. This presentation describes the candidate SST algorithms considered for the next round of ACSPO reanalysis, RAN2.

Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Fujiwara

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

A high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX region

Science.gov (United States)

Bollmeyer, Christoph; Keller, Jan; Ohlwein, Christian; Wahl, Sabrina

2015-04-01

Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Weather Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations, renewable energy applications). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on two regional reanalyses for Europe and Germany. The European reanalysis COSMO-REA6 matches the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). Nested into COSMO-REA6 is COSMO-REA2, a convective-scale reanalysis with 2km resolution for Germany. COSMO-REA6 comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-Interim data. COSMO-REA2 also uses the nudging scheme complemented by a latent heat nudging of radar information. The reanalysis data set currently covers 17 years (1997-2013) for COSMO-REA6 and 4 years (2010-2013) for COSMO-REA2 with a very large set of output variables and a high temporal output step of hourly 3D-fields and quarter-hourly 2D-fields. The evaluation

Characterization of the variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone using satellite and reanalysis wind product

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, T.; Kidwell, A. N.; Jo, Y. H.; Yan, X. H.

2016-02-01

The variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is evaluated using ocean surface wind products derived from the QuickSCAT satellite scatterometer for the period of 1999-2009and ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis for the period of 1981-2014. From these products, indices were developed to represent the SPCZ strength, area, and centroid location. Excellent agreement is found between the indices derived from the two wind products during the QuikSCAT period in terms of the spatio-temporal structures of the SPCZ. The longer ERA-Interim product is then used to study the variations of SPCZ properties on intraseasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scales. The SPCZ strength, area, and centroid latitude have a dominant seasonal cycle. In contrast, the SPCZ centroid longitude is dominated by intraseasonal variability due to the influence by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The SPCZ indices are all correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices. Interannual and intraseasonal variations of SPCZ strength during strong El Niño are approximately twice as large as the respective seasonal variations. SPCZ strength depends more on the intensity of El Niño rather than the central- vs. eastern-Pacific type. The change from positive to negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase around 1999 results in a westward shift of the SPCZ centroid longitude, much smaller interannual swing in centroid latitude, and a decrease in SPCZ area. This study improves the understanding of the variations of the SPCZ on multiple time scales and reveals the variations of SPCZ strength not reported previously. The diagnostics analyses can be used to evaluate climate models.

Monitoring Multidecadal satellite earth observation of soil moisture products through land surface reanalysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.; Balsamo, G.; Sabatar, J; de Rosnay, P.; Isaksen, I; Brocca, L; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.

2013-01-01

Soil moisture from ERA-Land, a revised version of the land surface components of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), is used to monitor at a global scale the consistency of a new microwave based multi-satellite surface soil moisture date set

Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA Using Satellite and Surface Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaotong Zhang

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface (Rs is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55 using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from −2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 were obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

Using multi-year reanalysis-derived recharge rates to drive a groundwater model for the Lake Tana region of Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Dokou, Z.; Kheirabadi, M.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Moges, S. A.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Ethiopia's high inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that stress local communities and lead to economic and food insecurity. Better predictions of water availability can supply farmers and water management authorities with critical guidance, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions that will in turn ensure food and water security in the region. The work presented here focuses on the development and calibration of a groundwater model of the Lake Tana region, one of the most important sub-basins of the Blue Nile River Basin. Groundwater recharge, which is the major groundwater source in the area, depends mainly on the seasonality of precipitation and the spatial variation in geology. Given that land based precipitation data are sparse in the region, two approaches for estimating groundwater recharge were used and compared that both utilize global atmospheric reanalysis driven by remote sensing datasets. In the first approach, the reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF reanalysis adjusted based on GPCC) together with evapotranspiration and surface run-off estimates are used to calculate the groundwater recharge component using water budget equations. In the second approach, groundwater recharge estimates (subsurface runoff) are taken directly from a Land Surface model (FLDAS Noah), provided at a monthly time scale and 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ spatial resolution. The reanalysis derived recharge rates in both cases are incorporated into the groundwater model MODFLOW, which in combination with a Lake module that simulates the Lake water budget, offers a unique capability of improving the predictability of groundwater and lake levels in the Lake Tana basin. Model simulations using the two approaches are compared against in-situ observations of groundwater and lake levels. This modeling effort can be further used to explore climate variability effects on groundwater and lake levels and provide guidance to

A Method for Snow Reanalysis: The Sierra Nevada (USA) Example

Science.gov (United States)

Girotto, Manuela; Margulis, Steven; Cortes, Gonzalo; Durand, Michael

2017-01-01

This work presents a state-of-the art methodology for constructing snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis. The method is comprised of two main components: (1) a coupled land surface model and snow depletion curve model, which is used to generate an ensemble of predictions of SWE and snow cover area for a given set of (uncertain) inputs, and (2) a reanalysis step, which updates estimation variables to be consistent with the satellite observed depletion of the fractional snow cover time series. This method was applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) based on the assimilation of remotely sensed fractional snow covered area data from the Landsat 5-8 record (1985-2016). The verified dataset (based on a comparison with over 9000 station years of in situ data) exhibited mean and root-mean-square errors less than 3 and 13 cm, respectively, and correlation greater than 0.95 compared with in situ SWE observations. The method (fully Bayesian), resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (31 years), and accuracy provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. This presentation illustrates how the reanalysis dataset was used to provide a basic accounting of the stored snowpack water in the Sierra Nevada over the last 31 years and ultimately improve real-time streamflow predictions.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

Science.gov (United States)

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-04-01

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

KAUST Repository

Attada, Raju

2017-07-04

This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

The Last Millennium Reanalysis: Improvements to proxies and proxy modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Tardif, R.; Hakim, G. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Anderson, D. M.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach to produce climate field reconstructions (CFRs). Here, we focus on two key factors in PDA generated CFRs: the set of assimilated proxy records and forward models (FMs) used to estimate proxies from climate model output. In the initial configuration of the LMR [Hakim et al., 2016], the proxy dataset of [PAGES2k Consortium, 2013] was used, along with univariate linear FMs calibrated against annually-averaged 20th century temperature datasets. In an updated configuration, proxy records from the recent dataset [PAGES2k Consortium, 2017] are used, while a hierarchy of statistical FMs are tested: (1) univariate calibrated on annual temperature as in the initial configuration, (2) univariate against temperature as in (1) but calibration performed using expert-derived seasonality for individual proxy records, (3) as in (2) but expert proxy seasonality replaced by seasonal averaging determined objectively as part of the calibration process, (4) linear objective seasonal FMs as in (3) but objectively selecting relationships calibrated either on temperature or precipitation, and (5) bivariate linear models calibrated on temperature and precipitation with objectively-derived seasonality. (4) and (5) specifically aim at better representing the physical drivers of tree ring width proxies. Reconstructions generated using the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an uninformed prior are evaluated against various 20th century data products. Results show the benefits of using the new proxy collection, particularly on the detrended global mean temperature and spatial patterns. The positive impact of using proper seasonality and temperature/moisture sensitivities for tree ring width records is also notable. This updated configuration will be used for the first generation of LMR-generated CFRs to be publicly released. These also provide a benchmark for future efforts aimed at evaluating the

Reanalysis of the consequences of a beyond-design based brine intrusion in the Schachtanlage Asse II. Further development of the radio-ecological modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kueppers, Christian; Ustohalova, Veronika; Steinhoff, Mathias

2011-01-01

The reanalysis of the consequences of a beyond-design based brine intrusion in the Schachtanlage Asse includes the following chapters: (1) Scope and introduction. (2) Overview on the methodology. (3) Modeling of the transport in the overlying rock and radiation exposure: Modeling of the radionuclide migration in the overlying rock considering the solubility limits and different retention and retarding effects; description of the used model for the radiation exposure calculations, quality assurance of the model and the calculations. (4) Results and reanalysis for the scenario I (GRS scenario). (5) Radiation exposure considering the solubility limits and transport calculations (scenario II). (6) Possibilities of monitoring in the Asse environment. (7) Estimation of collective doses as a consequence of contaminated water release into the biosphere and use as drinking water. (8) Discussion of the radiation exposure calculations in the former study of GRS (2009).

NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRV2)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire...

Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Tesfaye, T.

2017-12-01

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

Re-analysis as a Comparison of Constructions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jochen Gläser

2000-12-01

Full Text Available An interesting methodological aspect of secondary analysis is that it enables comparisons between constructions that constitute qualitative data analysis. This comparison is even more focused if a reanalysis is conducted, that means an analysis that reexamines both the primary study's data and the primary study's research question. In this article, a reanalysis is described that used interviews from the archive at the Special Collaborative Centre 186 (Sfb 186. One of the primary study's results was formulated as a hypothesis and subsequently "tested" by conducting a qualitative content analysis of the interviews. A comparison of primary study and reanalysis reveals critical decisions which may lead the data analyses to different results. These decisions are usually made implicitly and will show up only if contradictions between results are explained. As a second result of the comparison, typical threats to primary and secondary analyses are discussed. Primary studies seem to suffer from a "closure pressure", that it is a necessity to make sense of the data at all costs. This may stimulate researchers to close gaps in their data by speculation and to neglect contradicting evidence. Secondary analyses are thematically and methodically restricted by the primary study's data collection. Finally, the reanalysis confirmed that it is possible to use interviews from archives: The losses of information due to archiving and anonymisation seemed to have no significant influence on the reanalysis. URN: urn:nbn:de:0114-fqs0003257

An 8-year, high-resolution reanalysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, B.; Chatterjee, A.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

2017-12-01

This talk presents an overview of results from the GEOS-Carb reanalysis of retrievals of average-column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite missions. The reanalysis is a Level 3 (L3) product: a collection of 3D fields of carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios every 6 hours beginning in April 2009 going until the present on a grid with a 0.5 degree horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels from the surface to 0.01 hPa. Using an assimilation methodology based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), the L3 fields are weighted averages of the two satellite retrievals and predictions from the GEOS general circulation model driven by assimilated meteorology from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). In places and times where there are a dense number of soundings, the observations dominate the predicted mixing ratios, while the model is used to fill in locations with fewer soundings, e.g., high latitudes and the Amazon. Blending the satellite observations with model predictions has at least two notable benefits. First, it provides a bridge for evaluating the satellite retrievals and their uncertainties against a heterogeneous collection of observations including those from surface sites, towers, aircraft, and soundings from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Extensive evaluations of the L3 reanalysis clearly demonstrate both the strength and the deficiency of the satellite retrievals. Second, it is possible to estimate variables from the reanalysis without introducing bias due to spatiotemporal variability in sounding coverage. For example, the assimilated product provides robust estimates of the monthly CO2 global growth rate. These monthly growth rate estimates show significant differences from estimates based on in situ observations, which have sparse coverage

An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-12-15

At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

Equalizing effects of the wind energy production in Northern Europe determined from reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Giebel, Gregor

2000-01-01

The wind energy resource of Northern Europe is spread out over a geographically large area. This helps the utilities to integrate wind energy into their grids, since the generation is less variable, when it is combined from a larger area. The analysis wasdone based on 34 years of Reanalysis data...

Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

Science.gov (United States)

Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

2011-01-01

The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

Rainy Days in the New Arctic: A Comprehensive Look at Precipitation from 8 Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Markus, T.

2017-12-01

Precipitation in the Arctic plays an important role in the fresh water budget, and is the primary control of snow accumulation on sea ice. However, Arctic precipitation from reanalysis is highly uncertain due to differences in the atmospheric physics and use/approaches of data assimilation and sea ice concentrations across the different products. More specifically, yearly cumulative precipitation in some regions can vary by 100-150 mm across reanalyses. This creates problems for those modeling snow depth on sea ice, specifically for use in deriving sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry. In recent years, this new Arctic has become warmer and wetter, and evaporation from the ice-free ocean has been increasing, which leads to the question: is more precipitation falling and is more of this precipitation rain? This could pose a big problem for model and remote sensing applications and studies those modeling snow accumulation because rain events will can melt the existing snow pack, reduce surface albedo, and modify the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux via snow densification. In this work we compare precipitation (both snow and rain) from 8 different reanalysis: MERRA, MERRA2, NCEP-R1, NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, ERA-5, ASR and JRA-55. We examine the annual, seasonal, and regional differences and compare with buoy data to assess discrepancies between products during observed snowfall and rainfall events. Magnitudes and frequencies of these precipitation events are evaluated, as well as the "residual drizzle" between reanalyzes. Lastly, we will look at whether the frequency and magnitude of "rainy days" in the Arctic have been changing over recent decades.

Dynamical Downscaling of Typhoon Vera (1959) and related Storm Surge based on JRA-55 Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ninomiya, J.; Takemi, T.; Mori, N.; Shibutani, Y.; Kim, S.

2015-12-01

Typhoon Vera in 1959 is historical extreme typhoon that caused severest typhoon damage mainly due to the storm surge up to 389 cm in Japan. Vera developed 895 hPa on offshore and landed with 929.2 hPa. There are many studies of the dynamical downscaling of Vera but it is difficult to simulate accurately because of the lack of the accuracy of global reanalysis data. This study carried out dynamical downscaling experiment of Vera using WRF downscaling forced by JRA-55 that are latest atmospheric model and reanalysis data. In this study, the reproducibility of five global reanalysis data for Typhoon Vera were compered. Comparison shows that reanalysis data doesn't have strong typhoon information except for JRA-55, so that downscaling with conventional reanalysis data goes wrong. The dynamical downscaling method for storm surge is studied very much (e.g. choice of physical model, nudging, 4D-VAR, bogus and so on). In this study, domain size and resolution of the coarse domain were considered. The coarse domain size influences the typhoon route and central pressure, and larger domain restrains the typhoon strength. The results of simulations with different domain size show that the threshold of developing restrain is whether the coarse domain fully includes the area of wind speed more than 15 m/s around the typhoon. The results of simulations with different resolution show that the resolution doesn't affect the typhoon route, and higher resolution gives stronger typhoon simulation.

A System of Oceanic Reanalysis (SOR) fot the Nordic Seas

Science.gov (United States)

Pnyushkov, A.

2009-04-01

A system of oceanic reanalysis of the Nordic seas (Norwegian, Greenland and Barents seas) directed to the investigations of long period changes in the oceanic climate of the Arctic sub-polar seas was developed. The system of oceanic reanalysys (SOR) includes hybrid coordinate 22-th level ocean model HYCOM [Bleck,2002] and modern oceanographic data assimilation technique based on spectral nudging method. A series of test experiments was carried out and optimal parameters for assimilation routine were choused. These parameters take into account the accuracy of spatial restoring by means objective analysis procedure and phase distortion in modeling fields during monotonous assimilation of monthly distributions. On the basis of modeling results a set of monthly mean hydrological distributions of thermohaline parameters was created for the Nordic seas that was used for climatic field compilations on the standard levels for period 1957-1990. The data of reanalysis system projections allow us to restore the information about structure and dynamic of oceanographic fields for the periods and areas with a small number of direct measurements, for example East-Greenland currents area, north and north-east parts of the Barents sea. A series of additional experiments with SOR were performed directed to the simple assimilation of sea ice concentration data. A significant improvement of the system of objectively analyzed field preparation was done during 2008 including additional validation procedure of gridded arrays with using the direct data of oceanographic stations. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 07-05-00393).

Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations over two solar cycles, and operational forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Podladchikova, T.; Drozdov, A.; Subbotin, D.; Makarevich, R. A.; Donovan, E.; Nagai, T.

2015-12-01

Understanding of the dynamics in Earth's radiation belts is critical to accurate modeling and forecasting of space weather conditions, both which are important for design, and protection of our space-borne assets. In the current study, we utilize the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, multi-spacecraft measurements, and a split-operator Kalman filter to recontructe the global state of the radiation belt system in the CRRES era and the current era. The reanalysis has revealed a never before seen 4-belt structure in the radiation belts during the March 1991 superstorm, and highlights several important aspects in regards to the the competition between the source, acceleration, loss, and transport of particles. In addition to the above, performing reanalysis in adiabatic coordinates relies on specification of the Earth's magnetic field, and associated observational, and model errors. We determine the observational errors for the Kalman filter directly from cross-spacecraft phase-space density (PSD) conjunctions, and obtain the error in VERB by comparison with reanalysis over a long time period. Specification of errors associated with several magnetic field models provides an important insight into the applicability of such models for radiation belt research. The comparison of CRRES area reanalysis with Van Allen Probe era reanalysis allows us to perform a global comparison of the dynamics of the radiation belts during different parts of the solar cycle and during different solar cycles. The data assimilative model is presently used to perform operational forecasts of the radiation belts (http://rbm.epss.ucla.edu/realtime-forecast/).

Geophysical excitation of LOD/UT1 estimated from the output of the global circulation models of the atmosphere - ERA-40 reanalysis and of the ocean - OMCT

Science.gov (United States)

Korbacz, A.; Brzeziński, A.; Thomas, M.

2008-04-01

We use new estimates of the global atmospheric and oceanic angular momenta (AAM, OAM) to study the influence on LOD/UT1. The AAM series was calculated from the output fields of the atmospheric general circulation model ERA-40 reanalysis. The OAM series is an outcome of global ocean model OMCT simulation driven by global fields of the atmospheric parameters from the ERA- 40 reanalysis. The excitation data cover the period between 1963 and 2001. Our calculations concern atmospheric and oceanic effects in LOD/UT1 over the periods between 20 days and decades. Results are compared to those derived from the alternative AAM/OAM data sets.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

2009-10-15

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

2009-01-01

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2c)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRV2c)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the...

NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), for 1979 to Present

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Project is a reanalysis of historical observations using a 32-km version of the National Centers for Environmental...

NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project is using a state-of-the-art analysis/forecast system to perform data assimilation using past data from 1979 through near present....

Performance and quality assessment of the global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis GLORYS2V4.

Science.gov (United States)

Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Greiner, Eric; Drévillon, Marie; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Régnier, Charly; Desportes, Charles; Le Galloudec, Olivier; Bricaud, Clement; Drillet, Yann; Hernandez, Fabrice; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

2017-04-01

The purpose of this presentation is to give an overview of the recent upgrade of GLORYS2 (version 4 and GLORYS2V4 hereafter), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at Mercator Ocean that covers the altimetry era (1993-2015) in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS; http://marine.copernicus.eu/). The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (¼° horizontal resolution and 75 vertical levels) with the NEMO model and driven at the surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The reanalysis system uses a multi-data and multivariate reduced order Kalman filter based on the singular extended evolutive Kalman (SEEK) filter formulation together with a 3D-VAR large scale bias correction. The assimilated observations are along-track satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity. With respect to the previous version (GLORYS2V3), GLORYS2V4 contains a number of improvements. In particular: a) new initial temperature and salinity conditions derived from EN4 data base with a better mass equilibrium with altimetry, b) the use of the updated delayed mode CORA in situ observations from CMEMS, c) a new hybrid Mean Dynamical Topography (MDT) for the assimilation scheme referenced over the 1993-2013 period, d) a better observation operator for altimetry observations for the data assimilation scheme: e) A correction of large scale ERA-Interim atmospheric surface (precipitations and radiative) fluxes as in GLORYS2V3 but towards new satellite data set f) an update of the climatological runoff data base by using the latest version of Dai's 2009 data set for the global ocean together with better account of freshwater fluxes from polar ice sheet's glaciers. The presentation will show that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects such as biases and root mean squared error and, especially in representing

The dynamics of cyclone clustering in re-analysis and a high-resolution climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Priestley, Matthew; Pinto, Joaquim; Dacre, Helen; Shaffrey, Len

2017-04-01

Extratropical cyclones have a tendency to occur in groups (clusters) in the exit of the North Atlantic storm track during wintertime, potentially leading to widespread socioeconomic impacts. The Winter of 2013/14 was the stormiest on record for the UK and was characterised by the recurrent clustering of intense extratropical cyclones. This clustering was associated with a strong, straight and persistent North Atlantic 250 hPa jet with Rossby wave-breaking (RWB) on both flanks, pinning the jet in place. Here, we provide for the first time an analysis of all clustered events in 36 years of the ERA-Interim Re-analysis at three latitudes (45˚ N, 55˚ N, 65˚ N) encompassing various regions of Western Europe. The relationship between the occurrence of RWB and cyclone clustering is studied in detail. Clustering at 55˚ N is associated with an extended and anomalously strong jet flanked on both sides by RWB. However, clustering at 65(45)˚ N is associated with RWB to the south (north) of the jet, deflecting the jet northwards (southwards). A positive correlation was found between the intensity of the clustering and RWB occurrence to the north and south of the jet. However, there is considerable spread in these relationships. Finally, analysis has shown that the relationships identified in the re-analysis are also present in a high-resolution coupled global climate model (HiGEM). In particular, clustering is associated with the same dynamical conditions at each of our three latitudes in spite of the identified biases in frequency and intensity of RWB.

LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koller, Josep; Reeves, Geoffrey D.; Friedel, Reiner H.W.

2008-01-01

Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10 5 calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models over more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand physical

LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koller, Josep [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01

Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10{sup 5} calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models over more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand

Approximate Reanalysis in Topology Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amir, Oded; Bendsøe, Martin P.; Sigmund, Ole

2009-01-01

In the nested approach to structural optimization, most of the computational effort is invested in the solution of the finite element analysis equations. In this study, the integration of an approximate reanalysis procedure into the framework of topology optimization of continuum structures...

Comparison of TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level and Linear Model Results forced by Various Wind Products for the Tropical Pacific

Science.gov (United States)

Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

1997-01-01

The goal of this paper is to compare TOPEX/Posaidon (T/P) sea level with sea level results from linear ocean model experiments forced by several different wind products for the tropical Pacific. During the period of this study (October 1992 - October 1995), available wind products include satellite winds from the ERS-1 scatterometer product of [HALP 97] and the passive microwave analysis of SSMI winds produced using the variational analysis method (VAM) of [ATLA 91]. In addition, atmospheric GCM winds from the NCEP reanalysis [KALN 96], ECMWF analysis [ECMW94], and the Goddard EOS-1 (GEOS-1) reanalysis experiment [SCHU 93] are available for comparison. The observed ship wind analysis of FSU [STRI 92] is also included in this study. The linear model of [CANE 84] is used as a transfer function to test the quality of each of these wind products for the tropical Pacific. The various wind products are judged by comparing the wind-forced model sea level results against the T/P sea level anomalies. Correlation and RMS difference maps show how well each wind product does in reproducing the T/P sea level signal. These results are summarized in a table showing area average correlations and RMS differences. The large-scale low-frequency temporal signal is reproduced by all of the wind products, However, significant differences exist in both amplitude and phase on regional scales. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds do a better job reproducing the T/P signal (i.e. have a higher average correlation and lower RMS difference) than the results forced by atmospheric model winds.

A reanalysis of resistive size effects in tungsten

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sambles, J.R.; Mundy, J.N.

1983-01-01

A reanalysis of available data on the influence of surface scattering upon the resistivity of high-purity tungsten is presented. It is shown that some of the data appear to fit quite well to Soffer's model of surface scattering. From this new analysis values for the product rhosub(infinity)lambdasub(infinity) (bulk resistivity times bulk mean free path) may be obtained lying in the range 1.0-1.7 fΩ m 2 . Early data, which could not be interpreted using Fuchs' theory of surface scattering, may now be explained and yield surface roughness ratios (ratio of root mean square height of deviations from the mean surface to the Fermi wavelength) of the order of 0.2-2.5, typical of the value expected for atomically smooth to atomically rough surfaces. However, more recent data violate Soffer's theory in a convincing fashion. They illustrate fully the severe dangers of using a theory to interpret data for which it is not at all applicable. The Fermi surface of tungsten by no means approximates a simple sphere (one of the basic assumptions of the Soffer model). Hence such a naive treatment as Fuchs' leads to meaningless parameters such as quoted above. This paper is presented as a warning to all experimentalists who attempt to interpret data from metals with complex Fermi surfaces in a simple-minded fashion (e.g. using Fuchs' model). (author)

Evaluation of ACCMIP ozone simulations and ozonesonde sampling biases using a satellite-based multi-constituent chemical reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Bowman, Kevin

2017-07-01

The Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble ozone simulations for the present day from the 2000 decade simulation results are evaluated by a state-of-the-art multi-constituent atmospheric chemical reanalysis that ingests multiple satellite data including the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) for 2005-2009. Validation of the chemical reanalysis against global ozonesondes shows good agreement throughout the free troposphere and lower stratosphere for both seasonal and year-to-year variations, with an annual mean bias of less than 0.9 ppb in the middle and upper troposphere at the tropics and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis provides comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of chemistry-model performance that compliments direct ozonesonde comparisons, which are shown to suffer from significant sampling bias. The reanalysis reveals that the ACCMIP ensemble mean overestimates ozone in the northern extratropics by 6-11 ppb while underestimating by up to 18 ppb in the southern tropics over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Most models underestimate the spatial variability of the annual mean lower tropospheric concentrations in the extratropics of both hemispheres by up to 70 %. The ensemble mean also overestimates the seasonal amplitude by 25-70 % in the northern extratropics and overestimates the inter-hemispheric gradient by about 30 % in the lower and middle troposphere. A part of the discrepancies can be attributed to the 5-year reanalysis data for the decadal model simulations. However, these differences are less evident with the current sonde network. To estimate ozonesonde sampling biases, we computed model bias separately for global coverage and the ozonesonde network. The ozonesonde sampling bias in the evaluated model bias for the seasonal mean concentration relative to global

Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

Science.gov (United States)

Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

2016-12-05

Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

Complementizer Agreement in Modern Varieties of West Germanic: A Model of Reanalysis and Renewal

Science.gov (United States)

Bousquette, Joshua

2013-01-01

This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of Complementizer Agreement (C-agr) in modern dialects of West Germanic from a diachronic perspective, attributing the rise and development of C-agr to the initiation and progression of a Linguistic Cycle specific to C-agr. Approached as a historical process of reanalysis and compensatory renewal…

Connecting Observations and Reanalysis of the MJO with Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, S. W.

2017-12-01

Over the past few years, refined theories have been advanced the explain the onset and/or propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation over the tropical warm pool. For example, Adames and Kim (2016) built on Sobel and Maloney (2012, 2013) to describe the MJO as a dispersive moisture wave whose instability mechanism is a radiative-convective instability supported by anvils of large mesoscale systems. Wang and Chen (2016) describe a similar frictionally coupled moisture mode that captures many basic features of the canonically observed MJO. Arnold and Randall (2015) hypothesize that the MJO might be described as self-aggregation of convection over the Indian Ocean. Fuchs and Raymond (2017) describe the MJO as a first baroclinic dispersive mode in a simplified model with a linear WISHE instability that shows decreased propagation speeds for lower wavelengths. Not all of these theories can be correct, and quite possibly none of them are fully. Intelligent use of observations and reanalysis of past MJO events can help guide development of MJO theory. For example, Powell (2017) shows that in MERRA-2 reanalysis, the MJO propagates as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave over the Western Hemisphere then transitions abruptly into a slower moving mode over the Indian Ocean. A complete MJO theory must account for both forms as, and when, the MJO circumnavigates. Observations (like TRMM and GPM data) and reanalysis can reveal the relative roles of cloud-scale processes and large-scale free tropospheric horizontal advection in "pre-moistening" the troposphere in the location of MJO initiation where subsequent propagation of an existing MJO occurs. This can, for example, help validate or refute aspects of moisture mode theory that require large-scale dynamics to moisten an area ahead of an active envelope of MJO-related convection before the MJO can propagate eastward. Radar and satellite observations might yield some insight into whether convective self-aggregation is a real

An Overview of the GEOS-5 Aerosol Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter Richard; Damenov, Anton Spasov; Buchard-Marchant, Virginie; Randles, Cynthia A.; Gupta, Pawan

2011-01-01

GEOS-5 is the latest version of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) earth system model. GEOS-5 contains components for atmospheric circulation and composition (including data assimilation), ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and land surface processes. In addition to traditional meteorological parameters, GEOS-5 includes modules representing the atmospheric composition, most notably aerosols and tropospheric/stratospheric chemical constituents, taking explicit account of the impact of these constituents on the radiative processes of the atmosphere. MERRA is a NASA meteorological reanalysis for the satellite era (1979-present) using GEOS-5. This project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales. As a first step towards an integrated Earth System Analysis (IESA), the GMAO is extending MERRA with reanalyses for other components of the earth system: land, ocean, bio-geochemistry and atmospheric constituents. In this talk we will present results from the MERRA-driven aerosol reanalysis covering the Aqua period (2003-present). The assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS-5 involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a Neural Net scheme that translates MODIS radiances into AERONET calibrated AOD. These measurements are further quality controlled using an adaptive buddy check scheme, and assimilated using the Local Displacement Ensemble (LDE) methodology. For this reanalysis, GEOS-5 runs at a nominal 50km horizontal resolution with 72 vertical layers (top at approx. 8Skm). GEOS-5 is driven by daily biomass burning emissions derived from MODIS fire radiative power retrievals. We will present a summary of our efforts to validate such dataset. The GEOS-5 assimilated aerosol fields are first validated by comparison to independent in-situ measurements (AERONET and PM2.5 surface concentrations). In order to asses aerosol

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis (ERA) temperature increments

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-09-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in the reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the lack of dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (>0.5), low correlation and high negative correlation (Forecast (ECMWF) suggest that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity and downward (upward) airflow. These findings are associated with the interaction between dust-forced heating/cooling and atmospheric circulation. This paper contributes to a better understanding of dust radiative processes missed in the model.

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona

2016-11-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) that covers the meteorological satellite era (1980-present) and it is being updated in delayed time mode. The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4° horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels) and consists of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, a surface nudging and a bias correction scheme. With respect to the previous version (v4), C-GLORSv5 contains a number of improvements. In particular, background- and observation-error covariances have been retuned, allowing a flow-dependent inflation in the globally averaged background-error variance. An additional constraint on the Arctic sea-ice thickness was introduced, leading to a realistic ice volume evolution. Finally, the bias correction scheme and the initialization strategy were retuned. Results document that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects, especially in representing the variability of global heat content and associated steric sea level in the last decade, the top 80 m ocean temperature biases and root mean square errors, and the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation; slight worsening in the high-latitude salinity and deep ocean temperature emerge though, providing the motivation for further tuning of the reanalysis system. The dataset is available in NetCDF format at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.857995.

Investigating a solar influence on cloud cover using the North American Regional Reanalysis data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krahenbuhl Daniel Scott

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The controversial connection between cosmic rays, solar activity, and cloud cover is investigated using a climatological reconstructed reanalysis product: the North American Regional Reanalysis which provides high-resolution, low, mid-level, high, and total cloud cover data over a Lambert conformal conic projection permitting land/ocean discrimination. Pearson’s product-moment regional correlations were obtained between monthly cloud cover data and solar variability indicators, cosmic ray neutron monitors, several climatological indices, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, and between cloud layers. Regions of the mid-latitude oceans exhibited a positive correlation with cosmic ray flux. Additionally, this maritime low cloud cover exhibits the only failed correlation significance with other altitudes. The cross correlation reveals that cloud cover is positively correlated everywhere but for ocean low cloud cover, supporting the unique response of the marine layer. The results of this investigation suggest that with the assumption that solar forcing does impact cloud cover, measurements of solar activity exhibits a slightly higher correlation than GCRs. The only instance where GCRs exhibit a positive regional correlation with cloud cover is for maritime low clouds. The AMO exerts the greatest control of cloud cover in the NARR domain.

Atmospheric response to Saharan dust deduced from ECMWF reanalysis increments

Science.gov (United States)

Kishcha, P.; Alpert, P.; Barkan, J.; Kirchner, I.; Machenhauer, B.

2003-04-01

This study focuses on the atmospheric temperature response to dust deduced from a new source of data - the European Reanalysis (ERA) increments. These increments are the systematic errors of global climate models, generated in reanalysis procedure. The model errors result not only from the lack of desert dust but also from a complex combination of many kinds of model errors. Over the Sahara desert the dust radiative effect is believed to be a predominant model defect which should significantly affect the increments. This dust effect was examined by considering correlation between the increments and remotely-sensed dust. Comparisons were made between April temporal variations of the ERA analysis increments and the variations of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (AI) between 1979 and 1993. The distinctive structure was identified in the distribution of correlation composed of three nested areas with high positive correlation (> 0.5), low correlation, and high negative correlation (Forecast(ECMWF) suggests that the PCA (NCA) corresponds mainly to anticyclonic (cyclonic) flow, negative (positive) vorticity, and downward (upward) airflow. These facts indicate an interaction between dust-forced heating /cooling and atmospheric circulation. The April correlation results are supported by the analysis of vertical distribution of dust concentration, derived from the 24-hour dust prediction system at Tel Aviv University (website: http://earth.nasa.proj.ac.il/dust/current/). For other months the analysis is more complicated because of the essential increasing of humidity along with the northward progress of the ITCZ and the significant impact on the increments.

AVHRR GAC SST Reanalysis Version 1 (RAN1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Ignatov

2016-04-01

Full Text Available In response to its users’ needs, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA initiated reanalysis (RAN of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC; 4 km sea surface temperature (SST data employing its Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO retrieval system. Initially, AVHRR/3 data from five NOAA and two Metop satellites from 2002 to 2015 have been reprocessed. The derived SSTs have been matched up with two reference SSTs—the quality controlled in situ SSTs from the NOAA in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC L4 SST analysis—and analyzed in the NOAA SST Quality Monitor (SQUAM online system. The corresponding clear-sky ocean brightness temperatures (BT in AVHRR bands 3b, 4 and 5 (centered at 3.7, 11, and 12 µm, respectively have been compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model simulations in another NOAA online system, Monitoring of Infrared Clear-sky Radiances over Ocean for SST (MICROS. For some AVHRRs, the time series of “AVHRR minus reference” SSTs and “observed minus model” BTs are unstable and inconsistent, with artifacts in the SSTs and BTs strongly correlated. In the official “Reanalysis version 1” (RAN1, data from only five platforms—two midmorning (NOAA-17 and Metop-A and three afternoon (NOAA-16, -18 and -19—were included during the most stable periods of their operations. The stability of the SST time series was further improved using variable regression SST coefficients, similarly to how it was done in the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder version 5.2 (PFV5.2 dataset. For data assimilation applications, especially those blending satellite and in situ SSTs, we recommend bias-correcting the RAN1 SSTs using the newly developed sensor-specific error statistics (SSES, which are reported in the product files. Relative performance of RAN1 and PFV5.2 SSTs is discussed. Work is underway to improve the calibration of AVHRR/3s and

Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

2018-04-01

In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

Efficient reanalysis techniques for robust topology optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amir, Oded; Sigmund, Ole; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov

2012-01-01

efficient robust topology optimization procedures based on reanalysis techniques. The approach is demonstrated on two compliant mechanism design problems where robust design is achieved by employing either a worst case formulation or a stochastic formulation. It is shown that the time spent on finite...

Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

2018-04-01

Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

Assessment of Bias in the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) Reanalysis Radar-Only Estimate

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, B. R.; Prat, O. P.; Stevens, S. E.; Seo, D. J.; Zhang, J.; Howard, K.

2014-12-01

The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (NEXRAD) network over Continental United States (CONUS) is nearly completed for the period covering from 2001 to 2012. Reanalysis data are available at 1-km and 5-minute resolution. An important step in generating the best possible precipitation data is to assess the bias in the radar-only product. In this work, we use data from a combination of rain gauge networks to assess the bias in the NMQ reanalysis. Rain gauge networks such as the Hydrometeorological Automated Data System (HADS), the Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), the Climate Reference Network (CRN), and the Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-D) are combined for use in the assessment. These rain gauge networks vary in spatial density and temporal resolution. The challenge hence is to optimally utilize them to assess the bias at the finest resolution possible. For initial assessment, we propose to subset the CONUS data in climatologically representative domains, and perform bias assessment using information in the Q2 dataset on precipitation type and phase.

C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

OpenAIRE

A. Storto; S. Masina

2016-01-01

Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysi...

Dynamic inundation mapping of Hurricane Harvey flooding in the Houston metro area using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, S. J.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, S.; Zhang, Y.; Seo, D. J.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was one of the most extreme weather events in Texas history and left significant damages in the Houston and adjoining coastal areas. To understand better the relative impact to urban flooding of extreme amount and spatial extent of rainfall, unique geography, land use and storm surge, high-resolution water modeling is necessary such that natural and man-made components are fully resolved. In this presentation, we reconstruct spatiotemporal evolution of inundation during Hurricane Harvey using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis. The two-dimensional urban flood model used is based on dynamic wave approximation and 10 m-resolution terrain data, and is forced by the radar-based multisensor quantitative precipitation estimates. The model domain includes Buffalo, Brays, Greens and White Oak Bayous in Houston. The model is simulated using hybrid parallel computing. To evaluate dynamic inundation mapping, we combine various qualitative crowdsourced images and video footages with LiDAR-based terrain data.

Relating Radiative Fluxes on Arctic Sea Ice Area Using Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Sledd, A.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

2017-12-01

With Arctic sea ice declining rapidly and Arctic temperatures rising faster than the rest of the globe, a better understanding of the Arctic climate, and ice cover-radiation feedbacks in particular, is needed. Here we present the Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS), a dataset of integrated products to facilitate studying the Arctic using satellite, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. The data include cloud properties, radiative fluxes, aerosols, meteorology, precipitation, and surface properties, to name just a few. Each dataset has uniform grid-spacing, time-averaging and naming conventions for ease of use between products. One intended use of ArORIS is to assess Arctic radiation and moisture budgets. Following that goal, we use observations from ArORIS - CERES-EBAF radiative fluxes and NSIDC sea ice fraction and area to quantify relationships between the Arctic energy balance and surface properties. We find a discernable difference between energy budgets for years with high and low September sea ice areas. Surface fluxes are especially responsive to the September sea ice minimum in months both leading up to September and the months following. In particular, longwave fluxes at the surface show increased sensitivity in the months preceding September. Using a single-layer model of solar radiation we also investigate the individual responses of surface and planetary albedos to changes in sea ice area. By partitioning the planetary albedo into surface and atmospheric contributions, we find that the atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo is less sensitive to changes in sea ice area than the surface contribution. Further comparisons between observations and reanalyses can be made using the available datasets in ArORIS.

A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sabrina Wahl

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

Science.gov (United States)

Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

2013-09-01

We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness

Quantifying How Observations Inform a Numerical Reanalysis of Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, B. S.

2017-11-01

When assimilating observations into a model via state-estimation, it is possible to quantify how each observation changes the modeled estimate of a chosen oceanic metric. Using an existing 2 year reanalysis of Hawaii that includes more than 31 million observations from satellites, ships, SeaGliders, and autonomous floats, I assess which observations most improve the estimates of the transport and eddy kinetic energy. When the SeaGliders were in the water, they comprised less than 2.5% of the data, but accounted for 23% of the transport adjustment. Because the model physics constrains advanced state-estimation, the prescribed covariances are propagated in time to identify observation-model covariance. I find that observations that constrain the isopycnal tilt across the transport section provide the greatest impact in the analysis. In the case of eddy kinetic energy, observations that constrain the surface-driven upper ocean have more impact. This information can help to identify optimal sampling strategies to improve both state-estimates and forecasts.

Comment to the 'Reanalysis of the Eoetvoes experiment'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vecsernyes, P.

1986-07-01

A recent reanalysis of the classical Eoetvoes experiment - concerning the relation between the inertial and gravitational mass - shows strong correlation between the baryon number per unit mass of the samples and the deviations from the strict linearity measured by Eoetvoes. This result can be interpreted as an evidence for the existence of a new basic interaction of medium range, 'the fifth force'. Another possible candidate for carrying a new interaction is the lepton charge, the symmetric pair of the baryon charge in grand unified models. It is pointed out that the deviations from the null results in the Eoetvoes experiment do not correlate with the lepton charge per unit mass of the samples used by Eotvoes, only with their baryon charges. (D.Gy.)

Evaluation of a bias correction method applied to downscaled precipitation and temperature reanalysis for the Rhine basin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Terink, W.; Hurkmans, R.T.W.L.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

2010-01-01

In many climate impact studies hydrological models are forced with meteorological data without an attempt to assess the quality of these data. The objective of this study was to compare downscaled ERA15 (ECMWF-reanalysis data) precipitation and temperature with observed precipitation and temperature

Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Jin; Yu, Ye; Li, Jiang-lin; Ge, Jun; Liu, Chuan

2018-02-01

Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (SH and LE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been under research since 1950s, especially for recent several years, by mainly using observation, reanalysis, and satellite data. However, the spatiotemporal changes are not consistent among different studies. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variation of SH and LE over the TP from 1981 to 2013 using reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA) and observations. Results show that the spatiotemporal changes from the three reanalysis data sets are significantly different and the probable causes are discussed. Averaged for the whole TP, both SH and LE from MERRA are obviously higher than the other two reanalysis data sets. ERA-Interim shows a significant downward trend for SH and JRA-55 shows a significant increase of LE during the 33 years with other data sets having no obvious changes. By comparing the heat fluxes and some climate factors from the reanalysis with observations, it is found that the differences of heat fluxes among the three reanalysis data sets are closely related to their differences in meteorological conditions as well as the different parameterizations for surface transfer coefficients. In general, the heat fluxes from the three reanalysis have a better representation in the western TP than that in the eastern TP under inter-annual scale. While in terms of monthly variation, ERA-Interim may have better applicability in the eastern TP with dense vegetation conditions, while SH of JRA-55 and LE of MERRA are probably more representative for the middle and western TP with poor vegetation conditions.

Multimodel evaluation of cloud phase transition using satellite and reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Cesana, G.; Waliser, D. E.; Jiang, X.; Li, J.-L. F.

2015-08-01

We take advantage of climate simulations from two multimodel experiments to characterize and evaluate the cloud phase partitioning in 16 general circulation models (GCMs), specifically the vertical structure of the transition between liquid and ice in clouds. We base our analysis on the ratio of ice condensates to the total condensates (phase ratio, PR). Its transition at 90% (PR90) and its links with other relevant variables are evaluated using the GCM-Oriented Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation Cloud Product climatology, reanalysis data, and other satellite observations. In 13 of 16 models, the PR90 transition height occurs too low (6 km to 8.4 km) and at temperatures too warm (-13.9°C to -32.5°C) compared to observations (8.6 km, -33.7°C); features consistent with a lack of supercooled liquid with respect to ice above 6.5 km. However, this bias would be slightly reduced by using the lidar simulator. In convective regimes (more humid air and precipitation), the observed cloud phase transition occurs at a warmer temperature than for subsidence regimes (less humid air and precipitation). Only few models manage to roughly replicate the observed correlations with humidity (5/16), vertical velocity (5/16), and precipitation (4/16); 3/16 perform well for all these parameters (MPI-ESM, NCAR-CAM5, and NCHU). Using an observation-based Clausius-Clapeyron phase diagram, we illustrate that the Bergeron-Findeisen process is a necessary condition for models to represent the observed features. Finally, the best models are those that include more complex microphysics.

Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

Studying Diurnal Variations of Aerosols with NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Suhung; Ostrenga, Dana M.; Zeng, Jian; Vollmer, Bruce E.

2018-01-01

Aerosols play an important role in atmospheric dynamics, climate variations, and Earth's energy cycle by altering the radiation balance in the atmosphere through interaction with clouds, providing fertilizer for forests and canopy, and as a supply of iron to the ocean over long time periods. Studies suggest that much of the feedback between dust aerosols and dynamics is associated with diurnal and synoptic scale variability. However, the lack of sub-daily resolution of aerosols from satellite observations makes it difficult to study the diurnal characteristics, especially over tropical and subtropical regions. Investigation of this topic utilizes over 37 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, in the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) data set, available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, and is continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using data from MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated using the MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interacts directly with radiation parameterization, and is radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Hourly, monthly, and monthly diurnal data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5o x 0.625o (latitude x longitude). By using MERRA-2 hourly and monthly diurnal products, different aerosol diurnal variabilities are observed over North America, Africa, Asia, and Australia, that may be due to different meteorological conditions and aerosol sources. The presentation will also provide an overview of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC, such as how to find and download data, and how to quickly visualize and analyze data online with Giovanni.

Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System aerosol reanalysis products

Science.gov (United States)

Colarco, Peter R.; Gassó, Santiago; Ahn, Changwoo; Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Torres, Omar

2017-11-01

We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero). Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI near-UV aerosol retrieval algorithms (known as OMAERUV) is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining to the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600 and 1013.25 hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial-resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

Assessment of Patient-Specific Surgery Effect Based on Weighted Estimation and Propensity Scoring in the Re-Analysis of the Sciatica Trial

Science.gov (United States)

Mertens, Bart J. A.; Jacobs, Wilco C. H.; Brand, Ronald; Peul, Wilco C.

2014-01-01

We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control) arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery. PMID:25353633

A 3-D evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the greater European region using CALIOP/CALIPSO satellite observations

Science.gov (United States)

Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Benedetti, Angela; Zanis, Prodromos; Kourtidis, Konstantinos

2016-04-01

Significant amounts of dust are being transferred on an annual basis over the Mediterranean Basin and continental Europe from Northern Africa (Sahara Desert) and Middle East (Arabian Peninsula) as well as from other local sources. Dust affects a number of processes in the atmosphere modulating weather and climate also having an impact on human health and the economy. Therefore, the ability of simulating adequately the amount and optical properties of dust is essential. This work focuses on the evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the regions mentioned above. The evaluation procedure is based on pure dust satellite retrievals from CALIOP/CALIPSO that cover the period 2007-2012. The CALIOP/CALIPSO data utilized here come from an optimized retrieval scheme that was originally developed within the framework of the LIVAS (Lidar Climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for Space-Based LIDAR Simulation Studies) project. CALIOP/CALIPSO dust extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 532 nm are used for the validation of MACC natural aerosol extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 550 nm. Overall, it is shown in this work that space-based lidars may play a major role in the improvement of the MACC aerosol product. This research has been financed under the FP7 Programme MarcoPolo (Grand Number 606953, Theme SPA.2013.3.2-01).

The Use of Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.

1999-01-01

An important component of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind resource assessment methodology is the use of available upper-air data to construct detailed vertical profiles for a study region. Currently, the most useful upper-air data for this type of analysis are archived observations from approximately 1800 rawinsonde and pilot balloon stations worldwide. However, significant uncertainty exists in the accuracy of the constructed profiles for many regions. The United States Reanalysis Data Set, recently created by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, has the potential to improve the quality of the vertical profiles. The initial evaluation of the usefulness of the Reanalysis data for wind resource assessment consisted of contrasting reanalysis-derived vertical profiles of the wind characteristics to those generated from upper-air observations for comparable locations. The results indicate that, while reanalysis data can be substituted for upper-air observation data in the assessment methodology for areas of the world where observation data are limited, enough discrepancies with observation data have been noticed to warrant further studies

Isotope Reanalysis for 20th century: Reproduction of isotopic time series in corals, tree-rings, and tropical ice cores

Science.gov (United States)

Yoshimura, K.

2012-04-01

In the present study, an isotope-incorporated GCM simulation for AD1871 to AD2008 nudged toward the so-called "20th Century Reanalysis (20CR)" atmospheric fields is conducted. Beforehand the long-term integration, a method to downscale ensemble mean fields is proposed, since 20CR is a product of 56-member ensemble Kalman filtering data assimilation. The method applies a correction to one of the ensemble members in such a way that the seasonal mean is equal to that of the ensemble mean, and then the corrected member is inputted into the isotope-incorporated GCM (i.e., IsoGSM) with the global spectral nudging technique. Use of the method clearly improves the skill than the cases of using only a single member and of using the ensemble means; the skill becomes equivalent to when 3-6 members are directly used. By comparing with GNIP precipitation isotope database, it is confirmed that the 20C Isotope Reanalysis's performance for latter half of the 20th century is just comparable to the other latest studies. For more comparisons for older periods, proxy records including corals, tree-rings, and tropical ice cores are used. First for corals: the 20C Isotope Reanalysis successfully reproduced the δ18O in surface sea water recorded in the corals at many sites covering large parts of global tropical oceans. The comparison suggests that coral records represent past hydrologic balance information where interannual variability in precipitation is large. Secondly for tree-rings: δ18O of cellulose extracted from the annual rings of the long-lived Bristlecone Pine from White Mountain in Southern California is well reproduced by 20C Isotope Reanalysis. Similar good performance is obtained for Cambodia, too. However, the mechanisms driving the isotopic variations are different over California and Cambodia; for California, Hadley cell's expansion and consequent meridional shift of the submerging dry zone and changes in water vapor source is the dominant control, but in Cambodia

Comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature variability for Northern Eurasia based on the Reanalysis and in-situ observed data

Science.gov (United States)

Shulgina, T.; Genina, E.; Gordov, E.; Nikitchuk, K.

2009-04-01

At present numerous data archives which include meteorological observations as well as climate processes modeling data are available for Earth Science specialists. Methods of mathematical statistics are widely used for their processing and analysis. In many cases they represent the only way of quantitative assessment of the meteorological and climatic information. Unified set of analysis methods allows us to compare climatic characteristics calculated on the basis of different datasets with the purpose of performing more detailed analysis of climate dynamics for both regional and global levels. The report presents the results of comparative analysis of atmosphere temperature behavior for the Northern Eurasia territory for the period from 1979 to 2004 based on the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, NCEP/DOE Reanalysis AMIP II, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis data and observation data obtained from meteorological stations of the former Soviet Union. Statistical processing of atmosphere temperature data included analysis of time series homogeneity of climate indices approved by WMO, such as "Number of frost days", "Number of summer days", "Number of icing days", "Number of tropical nights", etc. by means of parametric methods of mathematical statistics (Fisher and Student tests). That allowed conducting comprehensive research of spatio-temporal features of the atmosphere temperature. Analysis of the atmosphere temperature dynamics revealed inhomogeneity of the data obtained for large observation intervals. Particularly, analysis performed for the period 1979 - 2004 showed the significant increase of the number of frost and icing days approximately by 1 day for every 2 years and decrease roughly by 1 day for 2 years for the number of summer days. Also it should be mentioned that the growth period mean temperature have increased by 1.5 - 2° C for the time period being considered. The usage of different Reanalysis datasets in conjunction with in-situ observed

Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, D.

2016-12-01

Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

Global Climatology of the Coastal Low-Level Wind Jets using different Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lima, Daniela C. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Semedo, Alvaro; Cardoso, Rita M.

2016-04-01

Coastal Low-Level Jets (henceforth referred to as "coastal jets" or simply as CLLJ) are low-tropospheric mesoscale wind features, with wind speed maxima confined to the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL), typically bellow 1km. Coastal jets occur in the eastern flank of the semi-permanent subtropical mid-latitude high pressure systems, along equatorward eastern boundary currents, due to a large-scale synoptic forcing. The large-scale synoptic forcing behind CLLJ occurrences is a high pressure system over the ocean and a thermal low inland. This results in coastal parallel winds that are the consequence of the geostrophic adjustment. CLLJ are found along the California (California-Oregon) and the Canary (Iberia and Northeastern Africa) currents in the Northern Hemisphere, and along the Peru-Humboldt (Peru-Chile), Benguela (Namibia) and Western Australia (West Australia) currents in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Arabian Sea (Oman CLLJ), the interaction between the high pressure over the Indian Ocean in summer (Summer Indian Monsoon) and the Somali (also known as Findlater) Jet forces a coastal jet wind feature off the southeast coast of Oman. Coastal jets play an important role in the regional climates of the mid-latitude western continental regions. The decrease of the sea surface temperatures (SST) along the coast due to upwelling lowers the evaporation over the ocean and the coast parallel winds prevents the advection of marine air inshore. The feedback processes between the CLLJ and upwelling play a crucial role in the regional climate, namely, promoting aridity since the parallel flow prevents the intrusion of moisture inland, and increasing fish stocks through the transport of rich nutrient cold water from the bottom. In this study, the global coastal low-level wind jets are identified and characterized using an ensemble of three reanalysis, the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the NCEP Climate Forecast

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Science.gov (United States)

Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

2015-01-01

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

Assessment of patient-specific surgery effect based on weighted estimation and propensity scoring in the re-analysis of the sciatica trial.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bart J A Mertens

Full Text Available We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery.

Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

KAUST Repository

Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2017-01-01

in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport

Regional Evaluation of ERA-40 Reanalysis Data with Marine Atmospheric Observations in the North Sea Area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nils H. Schade

2013-12-01

Full Text Available An important task of the departmental research programme KLIWAS is the evaluation and assessment of climate model results by means of a comprehensive reference data set. For validation purposes, and to create a North Sea wide maritime atmospheric and oceanographic reference database, in-situ observations of the Centre for Global Marine Meteorological Observations (GZS of the National Meteorological Service DWD have been compared to the ERA-40 reanalysis. ERA-40 is used as forcing for the hindcast runs of the ENSEMBLES regional climate models, which is used within the KLIWAS model chain. The GZS hosts a regularly updated, quality controlled, world-wide data bank of weather observations from the oceans. It includes data from all sorts of observation platforms as Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS, drifting and moored buoys, light vessels, and offshore platforms, either from real-time (RT via the Global Telecommunication System (GTS or from international exchange in delayed-mode (DM. In addition to the automated set of programs applied for high quality control, erroneous data are also manually corrected to a certain extent, if possible. To assure reliable statistics for the evaluation, the corrected observations are gridded to a resolution of 2.25 degree, so each grid box includes four ERA-40 reanalysis grid points. The temporal coverage of the grid boxes depends on shipping routes and the positions of automated systems. Observed air temperatures, covering a period of 40 years (1961?2000, show noticeable differences to the reanalysis data for all land influenced boxes, specifically in the winter months. The same differences can be found if ERA-40 data alone are compared between land- and sea facing boxes. They can not be found in GZS data. It can be assumed that the differences are not resulting from measurement errors or uncertain fraction variabilities, since they are small during the winter months. A comparison of the differences basing on the 1981

Application of the spectral correction method to reanalysis data in South Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries C.

2014-01-01

of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the method to the relevant region. The impacts from the two aspects are investigated for interior and coastal locations. Measurements from five stations from South Africa are used to evaluate the results from the spectral model S(f)=af−5/3 together...... with the hourly time series of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) 10 m wind at 38 km resolution over South Africa. The results show that using the spectral correction method to the CFSR wind data produce extreme wind atlases in acceptable agreement with the atlas made from limited measurements across...

Re-Analysis of Metagenomic Sequences from Acute Flaccidmyelitis Patients Reveals Alternatives to Enterovirus D68 Infection

Science.gov (United States)

2015-07-13

caused in some cases by infection with enterovirus D68. We found that among the patients whose symptoms were previously attributed to enterovirus D68...distribution is unlimited. Re-analysis of metagenomic sequences from acute flaccidmyelitis patients reveals alternatives to enterovirus D68...Street Baltimore, MD 21218 -2685 ABSTRACT Re-analysis of metagenomic sequences from acute flaccidmyelitis patients reveals alternatives to enterovirus

Evaluation of person-level heterogeneity of treatment effects in published multiperson N-of-1 studies: systematic review and reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Raman, Gowri; Balk, Ethan M; Lai, Lana; Shi, Jennifer; Chan, Jeffrey; Lutz, Jennifer S; Dubois, Robert W; Kravitz, Richard L; Kent, David M

2018-05-26

Individual patients with the same condition may respond differently to similar treatments. Our aim is to summarise the reporting of person-level heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) in multiperson N-of-1 studies and to examine the evidence for person-level HTE through reanalysis. Systematic review and reanalysis of multiperson N-of-1 studies. Medline, Cochrane Controlled Trials, EMBASE, Web of Science and review of references through August 2017 for N-of-1 studies published in English. N-of-1 studies of pharmacological interventions with at least two subjects. Citation screening and data extractions were performed in duplicate. We performed statistical reanalysis testing for person-level HTE on all studies presenting person-level data. We identified 62 multiperson N-of-1 studies with at least two subjects. Statistical tests examining HTE were described in only 13 (21%), of which only two (3%) tested person-level HTE. Only 25 studies (40%) provided person-level data sufficient to reanalyse person-level HTE. Reanalysis using a fixed effect linear model identified statistically significant person-level HTE in 8 of the 13 studies (62%) reporting person-level treatment effects and in 8 of the 14 studies (57%) reporting person-level outcomes. Our analysis suggests that person-level HTE is common and often substantial. Reviewed studies had incomplete information on person-level treatment effects and their variation. Improved assessment and reporting of person-level treatment effects in multiperson N-of-1 studies are needed. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Efficient Reanalysis Procedures in Structural Topology Optimization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Amir, Oded

This thesis examines efficient solution procedures for the structural analysis problem within topology optimization. The research is motivated by the observation that when the nested approach to structural optimization is applied, most of the computational effort is invested in repeated solutions...... on approximate reanalysis. For cases where memory limitations require the utilization of iterative equation solvers, we suggest efficient procedures based on alternative termination criteria for such solvers. These approaches are tested on two- and three-dimensional topology optimization problems including...

The Value of Reanalysis: TV Viewing and Attention Problems

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, E. Michael; Watkins, Stephanie

2010-01-01

Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 1,159), this study reexamines the link between maternal reports of television viewing at ages 1 and 3 and attention problems at age 7. This work represents a reanalysis and extension of recent research suggesting young children's television viewing causes subsequent attention problems.…

The benefit of using additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data on water allocation decisions in irrigation districts

Science.gov (United States)

Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2017-04-01

Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.

Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake

2013-01-01

Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatia...

An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frankignoul, C.; Kestenare, E. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Botzet, M. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Carril, A.F. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Drange, H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Pardaens, A. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office (United Kingdom); Terray, L.; Sutton, R. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

2004-04-01

The surface heat flux feedback is estimated in the Atlantic and the extra-tropical Indo-Pacific, using monthly heat flux and sea surface temperature anomaly data from control simulations with five global climate models, and it is compared to estimates derived from COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. In all data sets, the heat flux feedback is negative nearly everywhere and damps the sea surface temperature anomalies. At extra-tropical latitudes, it is strongly dominated by the turbulent fluxes. The radiative feedback can be positive or negative, depending on location and season, but it remains small, except in some models in the tropical Atlantic. The negative heat flux feedback is strong in the mid-latitude storm tracks, exceeding 40 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} at place, but in the Northern Hemisphere it is substantially underestimated in several models. The negative feedback weakens at high latitudes, although the models do not reproduce the weak positive feedback found in NCEP in the northern North Atlantic. The main differences are found in the tropical Atlantic where the heat flux feedback is weakly negative in some models, as in the observations, and strongly negative in others where it can exceed 30 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} at large scales, in part because of a strong contribution of the radiative fluxes, in particular during spring. A comparison between models with similar atmospheric or oceanic components suggests that the atmospheric model is primarily responsible for the heat flux feedback differences at extra-tropical latitudes. In the tropical Atlantic, the ocean behavior plays an equal role. The differences in heat flux feedback in the tropical Atlantic are reflected in the sea surface temperature anomaly persistence, which is too small in models where the heat flux damping is large. A good representation of the heat flux feedback is thus required to simulate climate variability realistically. (orig.)

Climatological and regional characteristics of supercell tornado occurrence based on a long-term reanalysis of tornado parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2016-01-01

This study investigates tornado climatology in Japan in terms of the regionalization of tornado intensity. A 50-year reanalysis dataset (the horizontal resolution of 5 km and hourly interval), produced by downscaling using the WRF mesoscale model and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, is used to estimate tornado parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and 3-km storm relative helicity (SReH). Energy helicity index (EHI) is also calculated as a composite parameter. Based on a long-term reanalysis data of tornado parameters, the number of times simultaneously exceeding threshold values is counted for SReH and CAPE parameters. The same procedure is done for EHI parameter. The thresholds are set from meteorological analysis of F3 tornadoes that are currently the most intense in Japan. Results indicate that the Pacific side of Japan along the south coast is the most favorable region for the occurrence of the most intense scale of tornado. This is consistent with the fact that the paths of most of all F3 tornadoes are include in this high-frequency region in exceeding thresholds. In other hand, approximately one-order smaller frequency in exceeding than the Pacific sides is evaluated in the Japan Sea side, which suggests topographic effects of blocking humid unstable air mass transported from the Pacific Ocean. The tornado intensity region evaluated by our approach is useful for a probabilistic hazard analysis of tornado wind speeds in the implementation of impact assessment of tornadoes for nuclear power plants. (author)

Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

2012-01-15

In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

2012-01-01

In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

Large-Scale Total Water Storage and Water Flux Changes over the Arid and Semiarid Parts of the Middle East from GRACE and Reanalysis Products

Science.gov (United States)

Forootan, E.; Safari, A.; Mostafaie, A.; Schumacher, M.; Delavar, M.; Awange, J. L.

2017-05-01

Previous studies indicate that water storage over a large part of the Middle East has been decreased over the last decade. Variability in the total (hydrological) water flux (TWF, i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff) and water storage changes of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin and Iran's six major basins (Khazar, Persian, Urmia, Markazi, Hamun, and Sarakhs) over 2003-2013 is assessed in this study. Our investigation is performed based on the TWF that are estimated as temporal derivatives of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products and those from the reanalysis products of ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land. An inversion approach is applied to consistently estimate the spatio-temporal changes of soil moisture and groundwater storage compartments of the seven basins during the study period from GRACE TWS, altimetry, and land surface model products. The influence of TWF trends on separated water storage compartments is then explored. Our results, estimated as basin averages, indicate negative trends in the maximums of TWF peaks that reach up to -5.2 and -2.6 (mm/month/year) over 2003-2013, respectively, for the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins, which are most likely due to the reported meteorological drought. Maximum amplitudes of the soil moisture compartment exhibit negative trends of -11.1, -6.6, -6.1, -4.8, -4.7, -3.8, and -1.2 (mm/year) for Urmia, Tigris-Euphrates, Khazar, Persian, Markazi, Sarakhs, and Hamun basins, respectively. Strong groundwater storage decrease is found, respectively, within the Khazar -8.6 (mm/year) and Sarakhs -7.0 (mm/year) basins. The magnitude of water storage decline in the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins is found to be bigger than the decrease in the monthly accumulated TWF indicating a contribution of human water use, as well as surface and groundwater flow to the storage decline over the study area.

Does Nutrition Cause Intelligence? A Reanalysis of the Cali Experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bejar, Isaac I.

1981-01-01

Recent literature suggests a causal link between malnutrition and impaired cognitive development. A selective literature review indicates that the presence or absence of such a link cannot be established. A reanalysis of an experiment indicated after four years of treatment there was no association between cognitive and nutritional status.…

Syntactic Reconstruction and Reanalysis, Semantic Dead Ends, and Prefrontal Cortex

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Ken Ramshøj

2010-01-01

have been to Paris than […] to Oslo), using pseudo-elliptical structures (‘dead ends’) as control (More people have been to Paris than I have). (ii) Reanalysis in the face of structural ambiguity in syntactic ‘garden paths’, where the parser initially assigns an incorrect structure and is forced...

Radon, cigarette smoke, and lung cancer: A re-analysis of the Colorado Plateau uranium miners' data [see comments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moolgavkar, S.H.; Luebeck, E.G.; Krewski, D.; Zielinski, J.M.

1993-01-01

Much of our knowledge regarding the interaction of radon and tobacco smoke in the etiology of human lung cancer derives from studies of uranium miners. In this article, we present a re-analysis of lung cancer mortality in the Colorado Plateau miners' cohort within the framework of the two-mutation clonal expansion model of carcinogenesis. This analysis takes into account the patterns of exposure to radon and cigarette smoke experienced by individuals in the cohort. A simultaneous re-analysis of the British doctors' cohort indicated that those model parameters relating to the effects of tobacco were comparable in the two data sets. We found no evidence of interaction between radon and tobacco smoke with respect to their joint effect on the first or second stage mutation rates or on the rate of proliferation of initiated cells. The age-specific relative risks associated with joint exposure to radon and cigarette smoke, however, were supra-additive but submultiplicative. The analysis also confirmed that fractionation of radon exposures leads to higher lung cancer risks. Finally, we present some estimates of lung cancer risk from environmental radon exposure for non-smokers and smokers

Assembling Typical Meteorological Year Data Sets for Building Energy Performance Using Reanalysis and Satellite-Based Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Huld

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We present a method to generate Typical Meteorological Year (TMY data sets for use in calculations of the energy performance of buildings, based on satellite derived solar radiation data and other meteorological parameters obtained from reanalysis products. The great advantage of this method is the availability of data over large geographical regions, giving global coverage for the reanalysis and continental-scale coverage for the solar radiation data, making it possible to generate TMY data for nearly any location, independent of the availability of meteorological measurement stations in the area. The TMY data generated with this method have been validated against 487 meteorological stations in Europe, by calculating heating and cooling degree days, and by running building energy performance simulations using EnergyPlus. Results show that the generated data sets using a long time series perform better than the TMY data generated from station measurements for building heating calculations and nearly as well for cooling calculations, with relative standard deviations remaining below 6% for heating calculations. TMY data constructed using the proposed method yield somewhat larger deviations compared to TMY data constructed from station data. We outline a number of possibilities for further improvement using data sets that will become available in the near future.

Exploring Climatology and Long-Term Variations of Aerosols from NASA Reanalysis MERRA-2 with Giovanni

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Suhung; Ostrenga, Dana; Vollmer, Bruce; Li, Zhanqing

2016-01-01

Dust plays important roles in energy cycle and climate variations. The dust deposition is the major source of iron in the open ocean, which is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton growth and therefore may influence the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. Mineral dust can also act as fertilizer for forests over long time periods. Over 35 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) are available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated by using MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interact directly with the radiation parameterization, and radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Dust deposition data along with other major aerosol compositions (e.g. black carbon, sea salt, and sulfate, etc.) are simulated as dry and wet deposition, respectively. The hourly and monthly data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5ox0.625o (latitude x longitude). Quick data exploration of climatology and interannual variations of MERRA-2 aerosol can be done through the online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni. This presentation, using dust deposition as an example, demonstrates a number of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC. Global distributions of dust depositions, and their seasonal and inter-annual variations are investigated from MERRA-2 monthly aerosol products.

From Product Models to Product State Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Michael Holm

1999-01-01

A well-known technology designed to handle product data is Product Models. Product Models are in their current form not able to handle all types of product state information. Hence, the concept of a Product State Model (PSM) is proposed. The PSM and in particular how to model a PSM is the Research...

Runoff simulation using the North American regional reanalysis data set

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, P.; Kim, S.J.; Moore, A.; Choi, W.

2008-01-01

In part due to concerns about the impact of climate change, there has been an increased interest in hydrological modelling of watersheds in Canada. Most of Canada is sparsely populated and a recurrent problem is the lack of quality weather data that are often not available at the sites of interest. Continuous hydrologic models require input of temperature and precipitation as a minimum, and often additional information such as solar radiation and humidity. It is not uncommon that such information must be obtained by interpolating information from weather stations located far outside the watershed. The difficulty in obtaining good calibration results is obvious in such cases. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set has been found to be in reasonable agreement with surface observations. NARR surface data, including those commonly required in hydrologic models, are available on a 32 km by 32 km grid which is appropriate for hydrologic modelling. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether hydrologic models for selected watersheds in Central Canada can be adequately calibrated using NARR data rather than conventional station information. For the specific case studies considered here, it is found that calibration with NARR weather information is quite acceptable and similar to what can be obtained using interpolated weather station data. (author)

Empirical-statistical downscaling of reanalysis data to high-resolution air temperature and specific humidity above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

Science.gov (United States)

Hofer, Marlis; MöLg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

2010-06-01

Recently initiated observation networks in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru) provide temporally high-resolution, yet short-term, atmospheric data. The aim of this study is to extend the existing time series into the past. We present an empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) model that links 6-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis data to air temperature and specific humidity, measured at the tropical glacier Artesonraju (northern Cordillera Blanca). The ESD modeling procedure includes combined empirical orthogonal function and multiple regression analyses and a double cross-validation scheme for model evaluation. Apart from the selection of predictor fields, the modeling procedure is automated and does not include subjective choices. We assess the ESD model sensitivity to the predictor choice using both single-field and mixed-field predictors. Statistical transfer functions are derived individually for different months and times of day. The forecast skill largely depends on month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8. The mixed-field predictors perform better than the single-field predictors. The ESD model shows added value, at all time scales, against simpler reference models (e.g., the direct use of reanalysis grid point values). The ESD model forecast 1960-2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type.

Accurate reanalysis of structures by a preconditioned conjugate gradient method

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Kirsch, U.; Kočvara, Michal; Zowe, J.

2002-01-01

Roč. 55, č. 2 (2002), s. 233-251 ISSN 0029-5981 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA1075005 Grant - others:BMBF(DE) 03ZOM3ER Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : preconditioned conjugate gradient s * structural reanalysis Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.468, year: 2002

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Science.gov (United States)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

2015-04-01

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the last century built on the NOAA 20th century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at delivering appropriate meteorological forcings for continuous distributed hydrological modelling over the last 140 years. The longer term objective is to improve our knowledge of major historical hydrometeorological events having occurred outside of the last 50-year period, over which comprehensive reconstructions and observations are available. It would constitute a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies. The Sandhy (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for Hydrology) statistical downscaling method (Radanovics et al., 2013), initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between 20CR predictors - temperature, geopotential shape, vertical velocity and relative humidity - and local predictands - precipitation and temperature - relevant for catchment-scale hydrology. Multiple predictor domains for geopotential shape are retained from a local optimisation over France using the Safran near-surface reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010). Sandhy gives an ensemble of 125 equally plausible gridded precipitation and temperature time series over the whole 1871-2012 period. Previous studies showed that Sandhy precipitation outputs are very slightly biased at the annual time scale. Nevertheless, the seasonal precipitation signal for areas with a high interannual variability is not well simulated. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and underestimated. Reliable seasonal precipitation and temperature signals are however necessary for hydrological modelling, especially for evapotranspiration and snow accumulation/snowmelt processes. Two different post-processing methods are

Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

Science.gov (United States)

Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2015-10-01

In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

A North American regional reanalysis climatology of the Haines Index

Science.gov (United States)

Wei Lu; Joseph J. (Jay) Charney; Sharon Zhong; Xindi Bian; Shuhua. Liu

2011-01-01

A warm-season (May through October) Haines Index climatology is derived using 32-km regional reanalysis temperature and humidity data from 1980 to 2007. We compute lapse rates, dewpoint depressions, Haines Index factors A and B, and values for each of the low-, mid- and high-elevation variants of the Haines Index. Statistical techniques are used to investigate the...

High-resolution dynamical downscaling of re-analysis data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Fonseca, Ricardo; Martín-Torres, Javier

2018-03-01

We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the climate of the Kerguelen Islands (49° S, 69° E) and investigate its inter-annual variability. Here, we have dynamically downscaled 30 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over these islands at 3-km horizontal resolution. The model output is found to agree well with the station and radiosonde data at the Port-aux-Français station, the only location in the islands for which observational data is available. An analysis of the seasonal mean WRF data showed a general increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature with elevation. The largest seasonal rainfall amounts occur at the highest elevations of the Cook Ice Cap in winter where the summer mean temperature is around 0 °C. Five modes of variability are considered: conventional and Modoki El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Subtropical IOD (SIOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is concluded that a key mechanism by which these modes impact the local climate is through interaction with the diurnal cycle in particular in the summer season when it has a larger magnitude. One of the most affected regions is the area just to the east of the Cook Ice Cap extending into the lower elevations between the Gallieni and Courbet Peninsulas. The WRF simulation shows that despite the small annual variability, the atmospheric flow in the Kerguelen Islands is rather complex which may also be the case for the other islands located in the Southern Hemisphere at similar latitudes.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Miyazaki

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25. The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC. The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

Evaluation of ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE R2 and CFSR Reanalysis precipitation Data using Gauge Observation over Ethiopia for a period of 33 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The vital demand of reliable climatic and hydrologic data of fine spatial and temporal resolution triggered the employment of reanalysis datasets as a surrogate in most of the hydrological modelling exercises. This study examines the performance of four widely used reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE R2, MERRA and CFSR, in reproducing the spatio-temporal characteristics of observed daily precipitation of different stations spread across Ethiopia, East Africa. The appropriateness of relying on reanalysis datasets for hydrologic modelling, climate change impact assessment and regional modelling studies is assessed using various statistical and non-parametric techniques. ERA-Interim is found to exhibit higher correlation and least root mean square error values with observed daily rainfall, which is followed by CFSR and MERRA in most of the stations. The variability of daily precipitation is better captured by ERA, CFSR and MERRA, while NCEP-DOE R2 overestimated the spread of the precipitation data. While ERA overestimates the probability of moderate rainfall, it is seemingly better in capturing the probability of low rainfall. CFSR captures the overall distribution reasonable well. NCEP-DOE R2 appears to be outperforming others in capturing the probabilities of higher magnitude rainfall. Climatological seasonal cycle and the characteristics of wet and dry spells are compared further, where ERA seemingly replicates the pattern more effectively. However, observed rainfall exhibits higher frequency of short wet spells when compared to that of any reanalysis datasets. MERRA relatively underperforms in simulating the wet spell characteristics of observed daily rainfall. CFSR overestimates the mean wet spell length and mean dry spell length. Spatial trend analysis indicates that the northern and central western Ethiopia show increasing trends, whereas the Central and Eastern Ethiopia as well as the Southern Ethiopia stations show either no trend

Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Cornejo-Bueno

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

Multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. J. van der A

2010-11-01

Full Text Available A single coherent total ozone dataset, called the Multi Sensor Reanalysis (MSR, has been created from all available ozone column data measured by polar orbiting satellites in the near-ultraviolet Huggins band in the last thirty years. Fourteen total ozone satellite retrieval datasets from the instruments TOMS (on the satellites Nimbus-7 and Earth Probe, SBUV (Nimbus-7, NOAA-9, NOAA-11 and NOAA-16, GOME (ERS-2, SCIAMACHY (Envisat, OMI (EOS-Aura, and GOME-2 (Metop-A have been used in the MSR. As first step a bias correction scheme is applied to all satellite observations, based on independent ground-based total ozone data from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center. The correction is a function of solar zenith angle, viewing angle, time (trend, and effective ozone temperature. As second step data assimilation was applied to create a global dataset of total ozone analyses. The data assimilation method is a sub-optimal implementation of the Kalman filter technique, and is based on a chemical transport model driven by ECMWF meteorological fields. The chemical transport model provides a detailed description of (stratospheric transport and uses parameterisations for gas-phase and ozone hole chemistry. The MSR dataset results from a 30-year data assimilation run with the 14 corrected satellite datasets as input, and is available on a grid of 1× 1 1/2° with a sample frequency of 6 h for the complete time period (1978–2008. The Observation-minus-Analysis (OmA statistics show that the bias of the MSR analyses is less than 1% with an RMS standard deviation of about 2% as compared to the corrected satellite observations used.

The critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition: a statistical critique and a reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanhove, Jan

2013-01-01

In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph) holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies-with few exceptions-use analytical (statistical) tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression) by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials.

Climatology of Tibetan Plateau Vortices and connection to upper-level flow in reanalysis data and a high-resolution model simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Curio, Julia; Schiemann, Reinhard; Hodges, Kevin; Turner, Andrew

2017-04-01

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) and surrounding high mountain ranges constitute an important forcing of the atmospheric circulation over Asia due to their height and extent. Therefore, the TP impacts weather and climate in downstream regions of East Asia, especially precipitation. Mesoscale Tibetan Plateau Vortices (TPVs) are known to be one of the major precipitation-bearing systems on the TP. They are mainly present at the 500 hPa level and have a vertical extent of 2-3 km while their horizontal scale is around 500 km. Their average lifetime is 18 hours. There are two types of TPVs: the largest number originating and staying on the TP, while a smaller number is able to move off the plateau to the east. The latter category can cause extreme precipitation events and severe flooding in large parts of eastern and southern China downstream of the TP, e.g. the Yangtze River valley. The first aim of the study is to identify and track TPVs in reanalysis data and to connect the TPV activity to the position and strength of the upper-level subtropical jet stream, and to determine favourable conditions for TPV development and maintenance. We identify and track TPVs using the TRACK algorithm developed by Hodges et al. (1994). Relative vorticity at the 500 hPa level from the ERA-Interim and NCEP-CFSR reanalyses are used as input data. TPVs are retained which originate on the TP and which persist for at least two days, since these are more likely to move off the TP to the East. The second aim is to identify TPVs in a high-resolution, present-day climate model simulation of the MetOffice Unified Model (UPSCALE, HadGEM3 GA3.0) to assess how well the model represents the TPV climatology and variability. We find that the reanalysis data sets and the model show similar results for the statistical measures of TPVs (genesis, track, and lysis density). The TPV genesis region is small and stable at a specific region of the TP throughout the year. The reason for this seems to be the convergence

A generalized multivariate regression model for modelling ocean wave heights

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, X. L.; Feng, Y.; Swail, V. R.

2012-04-01

In this study, a generalized multivariate linear regression model is developed to represent the relationship between 6-hourly ocean significant wave heights (Hs) and the corresponding 6-hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields. The model is calibrated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis of Hs and MSLP fields for 1981-2000, and is validated using the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 2001-2010 and ERA40 reanalysis of Hs and MSLP for 1958-2001. The performance of the fitted model is evaluated in terms of Pierce skill score, frequency bias index, and correlation skill score. Being not normally distributed, wave heights are subjected to a data adaptive Box-Cox transformation before being used in the model fitting. Also, since 6-hourly data are being modelled, lag-1 autocorrelation must be and is accounted for. The models with and without Box-Cox transformation, and with and without accounting for autocorrelation, are inter-compared in terms of their prediction skills. The fitted MSLP-Hs relationship is then used to reconstruct historical wave height climate from the 6-hourly MSLP fields taken from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al. 2011), and to project possible future wave height climates using CMIP5 model simulations of MSLP fields. The reconstructed and projected wave heights, both seasonal means and maxima, are subject to a trend analysis that allows for non-linear (polynomial) trends.

Comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments of the MACCii global reanalysis near surface ozone

Science.gov (United States)

Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Katragou, Eleni; Zanis, Prodromos; Melas, Dimitrios; Eskes, Henk; Flemming, Johannes; Huijnen, Vincent; Inness, Antje; Kapsomenakis, Ioannis; Schultz, Martin; Stein, Olaf; Zerefos, Christos

2014-05-01

In this work we evaluate near surface ozone concentrations of the MACCii global reanalysis using measurements from the EMEP and AIRBASE database. The eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003-2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system (Inness et al., 2013). The study mainly focuses in the differences between the assimilated and the non-assimilated experiments and aims to identify and quantify any improvements achieved by adding data assimilation to the system. Results are analyzed in eight European sub-regions and region-specific Taylor plots illustrate the evaluation and the overall predictive skill of each experiment. The diurnal and annual cycles of near surface ozone are evaluated for both experiments. Furthermore ozone exposure indices for crop growth (AOT40), human health (SOMO35) and the number of days that 8-hour ozone averages exceeded 60ppb and 90ppb have been calculated for each station based on both observed and simulated data. Results indicate mostly improvement of the assimilated experiment with respect to the high near surface ozone concentrations, the diurnal cycle and range and the bias in comparison to the non-assimilated experiment. The limitations of the comparison between assimilated and non-assimilated experiments for near surface ozone are also discussed.

Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Separation from Cross-Track Infrared Sounder Data with Atmospheric Reanalysis Data and ISSTES Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Ze Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS is one of the most advanced hyperspectral instruments and has been used for various atmospheric applications such as atmospheric retrievals and weather forecast modeling. However, because of the specific design purpose of CrIS, little attention has been paid to retrieving land surface parameters from CrIS data. To take full advantage of the rich spectral information in CrIS data to improve the land surface retrievals, particularly the acquisition of a continuous Land Surface Emissivity (LSE spectrum, this paper attempts to simultaneously retrieve a continuous LSE spectrum and the Land Surface Temperature (LST from CrIS data with the atmospheric reanalysis data and the Iterative Spectrally Smooth Temperature and Emissivity Separation (ISSTES algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of the retrieved LSEs and LST is comparable with the current land products. The overall differences of the LST and LSE retrievals are approximately 1.3 K and 1.48%, respectively. However, the LSEs in our study can be provided as a continuum spectrum instead of the single-channel values in traditional products. The retrieved LST and LSEs now can be better used to further analyze the surface properties or improve the retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

Strategic system development toward biofuel, desertification, and crop production monitoring in continental scales using satellite-based photosynthesis models

Science.gov (United States)

Kaneko, Daijiro

2013-10-01

The author regards fundamental root functions as underpinning photosynthesis activities by vegetation and as affecting environmental issues, grain production, and desertification. This paper describes the present development of monitoring and near real-time forecasting of environmental projects and crop production by approaching established operational monitoring step-by-step. The author has been developing a thematic monitoring structure (named RSEM system) which stands on satellite-based photosynthesis models over several continents for operational supports in environmental fields mentioned above. Validation methods stand not on FLUXNET but on carbon partitioning validation (CPV). The models demand continuing parameterization. The entire frame system has been built using Reanalysis meteorological data, but model accuracy remains insufficient except for that of paddy rice. The author shall accomplish the system that incorporates global environmental forces. Regarding crop production applications, industrialization in developing countries achieved through direct investment by economically developed nations raises their income, resulting in increased food demand. Last year, China began to import rice as it had in the past with grains of maize, wheat, and soybeans. Important agro-potential countries make efforts to cultivate new crop lands in South America, Africa, and Eastern Europe. Trends toward less food sustainability and stability are continuing, with exacerbation by rapid social and climate changes. Operational monitoring of carbon sequestration by herbaceous and bore plants converges with efforts at bio-energy, crop production monitoring, and socio-environmental projects such as CDM A/R, combating desertification, and bio-diversity.

Climatology and trend of wind power resources in China and its surrounding regions: a revisit using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2015-01-01

The mean climatology, seasonal and interannual variability and trend of wind speeds at the hub height (80 m) of modern wind turbines over China and its surrounding regions are revisited using 33-year (1979–2011) wind data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) that has many improvements including higher spatial resolution over previous global reanalysis...

Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gonzalez-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, Patrick

2017-01-01

generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative territorial unit), for a 30 year period taking into account the wind generating fleet at the end of 2015. (C) 2017 The Authors...... and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can...... could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured...

Geodetic reanalysis of annual glaciological mass balances (2001-2011) of Hintereisferner, Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Klug, Christoph; Bollmann, Erik; Galos, Stephan Peter; Nicholson, Lindsey; Prinz, Rainer; Rieg, Lorenzo; Sailer, Rudolf; Stötter, Johann; Kaser, Georg

2018-03-01

This study presents a reanalysis of the glaciologically obtained annual glacier mass balances at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria, for the period 2001-2011. The reanalysis is accomplished through a comparison with geodetically derived mass changes, using annual high-resolution airborne laser scanning (ALS). The grid-based adjustments for the method-inherent differences are discussed along with associated uncertainties and discrepancies of the two methods of mass balance measurements. A statistical comparison of the two datasets shows no significant difference for seven annual, as well as the cumulative, mass changes over the 10-year record. Yet, the statistical view hides significant differences in the mass balance years 2002/03 (glaciological minus geodetic records = +0.92 m w.e.), 2005/06 (+0.60 m w.e.), and 2006/07 (-0.45 m w.e.). We conclude that exceptional meteorological conditions can render the usual glaciological observational network inadequate. Furthermore, we consider that ALS data reliably reproduce the annual mass balance and can be seen as validation or calibration tools for the glaciological method.

Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

KAUST Repository

Perdigão, João Carlos

2016-01-26

© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results show that reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm-2 (40Wm-2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964-1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Variability and trends of downward surface global solar radiation over the Iberian Peninsula based on ERA-40 reanalysis

KAUST Repository

Perdigã o, Joã o Carlos; Salgado, Rui; Costa, Maria Joã o; Dasari, Hari Prasad; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo

2016-01-01

© 2016 Royal Meteorological Society. A climate study of the incidence of downward surface global solar radiation (SSRD) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based primarily on ERA-40 reanalysis is presented. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ground-based records from several Portuguese and Spanish stations have been also considered. The results show that reanalysis can capture a similar inter-annual variability as compared to ground-based observations, especially on a monthly basis, even though annual ERA-40 (NCEP/NCAR) values tend to underestimate (overestimate) the observations with a mean relative difference of around 20Wm-2 (40Wm-2). On the other hand, ground-based measurements in Portuguese stations during the period 1964-1989 show a tendency to decrease until the mid-1970s followed by an increase up to the end of the study period, in line with the dimming/brightening phenomenon reported in the literature. Nevertheless, there are different temporal behaviours as a greater increase since the 1970s is observed in the south and less industrialized regions. Similarly, the ERA-40 reanalysis shows a noticeable decrease until the early 1970s followed by a slight increase up to the end of the 1990s, suggesting a dimming/brightening transition around the early 1970s, earlier in the south and centre and later in the north of the IP. Although there are slight differences in the magnitude of the trends as well as the turning year of the dimming/brightening periods, the decadal changes of ERA-40 fairly agree with the ground-based observations in Portugal and Spain, in contrast to most of the literature for other regions of the world, and is used in the climatology of the SSRD in the study area. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis does not capture the decadal variations of SSRD in the IP. The results show that part of the decadal variability of the global radiation in the IP is related to changes in cloud cover (represented in ERA-40).

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

2014-01-01

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

Comparison of the seasonal climate simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the reanalysis NCEP/NCAR with the observed data of the temperature of the air and the precipitation in Colombia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza; Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal

2001-01-01

In this work we carry out a comparison of the simulations of the climatic model CCM3, the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and real data, by the practical significance of the model based on the observed differences

Self-Disorder and Brain Processing of Proprioception in Schizophrenia Spectrum Patients: A Re-Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnfred, Sidse M.; Raballo, Andrea; Mørup, Morten

2015-01-01

with abnormalities of early contralateral proprioceptive evoked oscillatory brain activity. Methods : We investigated the association between proprioceptive evoked potential components and SDs in a re-analysis of data from a subsample (n = 12) of SZS patients who had previously been observed with deviant...

A preliminary experiment for the long-term regional reanalysis over Japan assimilating conventional observations with NHM-LETKF

Science.gov (United States)

Fukui, Shin; Iwasaki, Toshiki; Saito, Kazuo; Seko, Hiromu; Kunii, Masaru

2016-04-01

Several long-term global reanalyses have been produced by major operational centres and have contributed to the advance of weather and climate researches considerably. Although the horizontal resolutions of these global reanalyses are getting higher partly due to the development of computing technology, they are still too coarse to reproduce local circulations and precipitation realistically. To solve this problem, dynamical downscaling is often employed. However, the forcing from lateral boundaries only cannot necessarily control the inner fields especially in long-term dynamical downscaling. Regional reanalysis is expected to overcome the difficulty. To maintain the long-term consistency of the analysis quality, it is better to assimilate only the conventional observations that are available in long period. To confirm the effectiveness of the regional reanalysis, some assimilation experiments are performed. In the experiments, only conventional observations (SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, TEMP, PILOT, TC-Bogus) are assimilated with the NHM-LETKF system, which consists of the nonhydrostatic model (NHM) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF). The horizontal resolution is 25 km and the domain covers Japan and its surroundings. Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) is adopted as the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the NHM-LETKF forecast-analysis cycles. The ensemble size is 10. The experimental period is August 2014 as a representative of warm season for the region. The results are verified against the JMA's operational Meso-scale Analysis, which is produced with assimilating observation data including various remote sensing observations using a 4D-Var scheme, and compared with those of the simple dynamical downscaling experiment without data assimilation. Effects of implementation of lateral boundary perturbations derived from an EOF analysis of JRA-55 over the targeted domain are also examined. The comparison

Comparing and Combining Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Products for Improved Hydrological Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert M. Parinussa

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Land surface temperature (LST is an important variable that provides a valuable connection between the energy and water budget and is strongly linked to land surface hydrology. Space-borne remote sensing provides a consistent means for regularly observing LST using thermal infrared (TIR and passive microwave observations each with unique strengths and weaknesses. The spatial resolution of TIR based LST observations is around 1 km, a major advantage when compared to passive microwave observations (around 10 km. However, a major advantage of passive microwaves is their cloud penetrating capability making them all-weather sensors whereas TIR observations are routinely masked under the presence of clouds and aerosols. In this study, a relatively simple combination approach that benefits from the cloud penetrating capacity of passive microwave sensors was proposed. In the first step, TIR and passive microwave LST products were compared over Australia for both anomalies and raw timeseries. A very high agreement was shown over the vast majority of the country with R2 typically ranging from 0.50 to 0.75 for the anomalies and from 0.80 to 1.00 for the raw timeseries. Then, the scalability of the passive microwave based LST product was examined and a pixel based merging approach through linear scaling was proposed. The individual and merged LST products were further compared against independent LST from the re-analysis model outputs. This comparison revealed that the TIR based LST product agrees best with the re-analysis data (R2 0.26 for anomalies and R2 0.76 for raw data, followed by the passive microwave LST product (R2 0.16 for anomalies and R2 0.66 for raw data and the combined LST product (R2 0.18 for anomalies and R2 0.62 for raw data. It should be noted that the drop in performance comes with an increased revisit frequency of approximately 20% compared to the revised frequency of the TIR alone. Additionally, this comparison against re-analysis

Climatology and Structures of Southwest Vortices in NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Xinyuan; Liu, Changhai; Fan, Guangzhou; Liu, Xiaodong; Feng, Caiyun

2017-04-01

A southwest vortex (SWV) refers to the meso-α-scale cyclonic low-pressure system originating in southwest China, as a result of interactions of large-scale circulations and the specific multi-scale topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountain and Sichuan Basin. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in southwestern China, in the Yangtze River valley and even in north China. This paper reports on a systematic investigation of its climatological and structural characteristics over the 32-yr period of 1979-2010 using the high-resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The present study has the several unique features. First, the new generation reanalysis product possesses high spatial and temporal resolution, arguably being more suitable for mesoscale vortex studies as compared to the preceding reanalysis datasets and moreover enabling an examination of the diurnal behavior. Second, our 32-yr statistics are capable of producing a robust representation of the SWV climatology. Third, the application of an objective identification methodology avoids some subjective ambiguities in the manual approach that has exclusively been adopted before. Lastly, a systematic exploration of thermodynamic and kinematic structures is conducted, unlike the previous exclusive heavy-rain-generating case studies. Our major findings are summarized as follows. The SWV is a common regional weather system with an annual count of 73. Two primary source regions are identified, located in the Sichuan Basin and southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The genesis displays striking seasonality, characteristic of a spring-summer (March-August) preference with a peak in May. Remarkable diurnal variations are present, with two active periods around 07 and 19 Local Time. There exist prominent regional disparities in both the seasonal and diurnal variability though. A large portion of the vortices travel a rather limited distance due partially

Reanalysis and semantic persistence in native and non-native garden-path recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacob, Gunnar; Felser, Claudia

2016-01-01

We report the results from an eye-movement monitoring study investigating how native and non-native speakers of English process temporarily ambiguous sentences such as While the gentleman was eating the burgers were still being reheated in the microwave, in which an initially plausible direct-object analysis is first ruled out by a syntactic disambiguation (were) and also later on by semantic information (being reheated). Both participant groups showed garden-path effects at the syntactic disambiguation, with native speakers showing significantly stronger effects of ambiguity than non-native speakers in later eye-movement measures but equally strong effects in first-pass reading times. Ambiguity effects at the semantic disambiguation and in participants' end-of-trial responses revealed that for both participant groups, the incorrect direct-object analysis was frequently maintained beyond the syntactic disambiguation. The non-native group showed weaker reanalysis effects at the syntactic disambiguation and was more likely to misinterpret the experimental sentences than the native group. Our results suggest that native language (L1) and non-native language (L2) parsing are similar with regard to sensitivity to syntactic and semantic error signals, but different with regard to processes of reanalysis.

Statistical Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration Using Satellite Imagery and Climate Reanalysis Data in the Barents and Kara Seas, 1979–2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jihye Ahn

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Extensive sea ice over Arctic regions is largely involved in heat, moisture, and momentum exchanges between the atmosphere and ocean. Some previous studies have been conducted to develop statistical models for the status of Arctic sea ice and showed considerable possibilities to explain the impacts of climate changes on the sea ice extent. However, the statistical models require improvements to achieve better predictions by incorporating techniques that can deal with temporal variation of the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate factors. In this paper, we describe the statistical approaches by ordinary least squares (OLS regression and a time-series method for modeling sea ice concentration using satellite imagery and climate reanalysis data for the Barents and Kara Seas during 1979–2012. The OLS regression model could summarize the overall climatological characteristics in the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate variables. We also introduced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models because the sea ice concentration is such a long-range dataset that the relationships may not be explained by a single equation of the OLS regression. Temporally varying relationships between sea ice concentration and the climate factors such as skin temperature, sea surface temperature, total column liquid water, total column water vapor, instantaneous moisture flux, and low cloud cover were modeled by the ARIMA method, which considerably improved the prediction accuracies. Our method may also be worth consideration when forecasting future sea ice concentration by using the climate data provided by general circulation models (GCM.

Re-analysis of RNA-Sequencing Data on Apple Stem Grooving Virus infected Apple reveals more significant differentially expressed genes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bipin Balan

2017-12-01

Full Text Available RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq technology has enabled the researchers to investigate the host global gene expression changes in plant-virus interactions which helped to understand the molecular basis of virus diseases. The re-analysis of RNA-Seq studies using most updated genome version and the available best analysis pipeline will produce most accurate results. In this study, we re-analysed the Apple stem grooving virus (ASGV infected apple shoots in comparison with that of virus-free in vitro shoots [1] using the most updated Malus x domestica genome downloaded from Phytozome database. The re-analysis was done by using HISAT2 software and Cufflinks program was used to mine the differentially expressed genes. We found that ~20% more reads was mapped to the latest genome using the updated pipeline, which proved the significance of such re-analysis. The comparison of the updated results with that of previous was done. In addition, we performed protein-protein interaction (PPI to investigate the proteins affected by ASGV infection.

An assessment of the surface climate in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Wanqiu; Xie, Pingping; Yoo, Soo-Hyun; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wu, Xingren [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-10-15

This paper analyzes surface climate variability in the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) recently completed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The CFSR represents a new generation of reanalysis effort with first guess from a coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice-land forecast system. This study focuses on the analysis of climate variability for a set of surface variables including precipitation, surface air 2-m temperature (T2m), and surface heat fluxes. None of these quantities are assimilated directly and thus an assessment of their variability provides an independent measure of the accuracy. The CFSR is compared with observational estimates and three previous reanalyses (the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis or R1, the NCEP/DOE reanalysis or R2, and the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The CFSR has improved time-mean precipitation distribution over various regions compared to the three previous reanalyses, leading to a better representation of freshwater flux (evaporation minus precipitation). For interannual variability, the CFSR shows improved precipitation correlation with observations over the Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and western Pacific. The T2m of the CFSR is superior to R1 and R2 with more realistic interannual variability and long-term trend. On the other hand, the CFSR overestimates downward solar radiation flux over the tropical Western Hemisphere warm pool, consistent with a negative cloudiness bias and a positive sea surface temperature bias. Meanwhile, the evaporative latent heat flux in CFSR appears to be larger than other observational estimates over most of the globe. A few deficiencies in the long-term variations are identified in the CFSR. Firstly, dramatic changes are found around 1998-2001 in the global average of a number of variables, possibly related to the changes in the assimilated satellite observations. Secondly, the use of multiple streams for the CFSR induces spurious

Application of Aura OMI L2G Products Compared with NASA MERRA-2 Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Jian; Shen, Suhung; Wei, Jennifer; Johnson, James E.; Su, Jian; Meyer, David J.

2018-01-01

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) is one of the instruments aboard NASA's Aura satellite. It measures ozone total column and vertical profile, aerosols, clouds, and trace gases including NO2, SO2, HCHO, BrO, and OClO using absorption in the ultraviolet electromagnetic spectrum (280 - 400 nm). OMI Level-2G (L2G) products are based on the pixel-level OMI granule satellite measurements stored within global 0.25 deg. X 0.25 deg. grids, therefore they conserve all the Level 2 (L2) spatial and temporal details for 24 hours of scientific data in one file. The second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) is NASA's atmospheric reanalysis, using an upgraded version of Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) data assimilation system. MERRA-2 includes aerosol data reanalysis and improved representations of stratospheric ozone, compared with its predecessor MERRA, in both instantaneous and time-averaged collections. It is found that simply comparing satellite Level-3 products might cause biases, due to lack of detailed temporal and original retrieval information. It is therefore preferable to inter-compare or implement satellite derived physical quantities directly with/to model assimilation with as high temporal and spatial resolutions as possible. This study will demonstrate utilization of OMI L2G daily aerosol and ozone products by comparing them with MERRA-2 hourly aerosol/ozone simulations, matched in both space and time aspects. Both OMI and MERRA-2 products are accessible online through NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data Information Services Center (GES DISC, https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/).

Near-Surface Meteorology During the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS): Evaluation of Reanalyses and Global Climate Models.

Science.gov (United States)

De Boer, G.; Shupe, M.D.; Caldwell, P.M.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Persson, O.; Boyle, J.S.; Kelley, M.; Klein, S.A.; Tjernstrom, M.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric measurements from the Arctic Summer Cloud Ocean Study (ASCOS) are used to evaluate the performance of three atmospheric reanalyses (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)- Interim reanalysis, National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, and NCEP-DOE (Department of Energy) reanalysis) and two global climate models (CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model 5) and NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) ModelE2) in simulation of the high Arctic environment. Quantities analyzed include near surface meteorological variables such as temperature, pressure, humidity and winds, surface-based estimates of cloud and precipitation properties, the surface energy budget, and lower atmospheric temperature structure. In general, the models perform well in simulating large-scale dynamical quantities such as pressure and winds. Near-surface temperature and lower atmospheric stability, along with surface energy budget terms, are not as well represented due largely to errors in simulation of cloud occurrence, phase and altitude. Additionally, a development version of CAM5, which features improved handling of cloud macro physics, has demonstrated to improve simulation of cloud properties and liquid water amount. The ASCOS period additionally provides an excellent example of the benefits gained by evaluating individual budget terms, rather than simply evaluating the net end product, with large compensating errors between individual surface energy budget terms that result in the best net energy budget.

A Reanalysis of Toomela (2003: Spurious measurement error as cause for common variance between personality factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MATTHIAS ZIEGLER

2009-03-01

Full Text Available The present article reanalyzed data collected by Toomela (2003. The data contain personality self ratings and cognitive ability test results from n = 912 men with military background. In his original article Toomela showed that in the group with the highest cognitive ability, Big-Five-Neuroticism and -Conscientiousness were substantially correlated and could no longer be clearly separated using exploratory factor analysis. The present reanalysis was based on the hypothesis that a spurious measurement error caused by situational demand was responsible. This means, people distorted their answers. Furthermore it was hypothesized that this situational demand was felt due to a person’s military rank but not due to his intelligence. Using a multigroup structural equation model our hypothesis could be confirmed. Moreover, the results indicate that an uncorrelated trait model might represent personalities better when situational demand is partialized. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

Estimating climatological variability of solar energy production

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Juruš, Pavel; Eben, Kryštof; Resler, Jaroslav; Krč, Pavel; Kasanický, Ivan; Pelikán, Emil; Brabec, Marek; Hošek, Jiří

98 Part C, December (2013), s. 255-264 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:68378289 Keywords : MERRA * reanalysis * numerical weather prediction * photovoltaic power production Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.541, year: 2013

Comparison of the ocean surface vector winds over the Nordic Seas and their application for ocean modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Dukhovskoy, Dmitry; Bourassa, Mark

2017-04-01

Ocean processes in the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic are strongly controlled by air-sea heat and momentum fluxes. The predominantly cyclonic, large-scale atmospheric circulation brings the deep ocean layer up to the surface preconditioning the convective sites in the Nordic Seas for deep convection. In winter, intensive cooling and possibly salt flux from newly formed sea ice erodes the near-surface stratification and the mixed layer merges with the deeper domed layer, exposing the very weakly stratified deep water mass to direct interaction with the atmosphere. Surface wind is one of the atmospheric parameters required for estimating momentum and turbulent heat fluxes to the sea ice and ocean surface. In the ocean models forced by atmospheric analysis, errors in surface wind fields result in errors in air-sea heat and momentum fluxes, water mass formation, ocean circulation, as well as volume and heat transport in the straits. The goal of the study is to assess discrepancies across the wind vector fields from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-derived gridded products over the Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic and to demonstrate possible implications of these differences for ocean modeling. The analyzed data sets include the reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis 2 (NCEPR2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) and satellite wind products Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product version 1.1 and recently released version 2.0, and Remote Sensing Systems QuikSCAT data. Large-scale and mesoscale characteristics of winds are compared at interannual, seasonal, and synoptic timescales. Numerical sensitivity experiments are conducted with a coupled ice-ocean model forced by different wind fields. The sensitivity experiments demonstrate differences in the net surface heat fluxes during storm events. Next, it is hypothesized that discrepancies in the wind vorticity

The ILRS Reanalysis 1983 - 2009 Contributed To ITRF2008

Science.gov (United States)

Pavlis, E. C.; Luceri, V.; Sciarretta, C.; Kelm, R.

2009-12-01

For over two decades, Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data contribute to the definition of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF). Until the development of ITRF2000, the contributions were submitted in the form of a set of normal equations or a covariance matrix of station coordinates and their linear rates at a standard epoch. The development of ITRF2005 ushered a new era with the use of weekly or session contributions, allowing greater flexibility in the relative weighting and the combination of information from various techniques. Moreover, the need of a unique, official, representative solution for each Technique Service, based on the rigorous combination of the various Analysis Centers’ contributions, gave the opportunity to all techniques to verify, as a first step, the intra-technique solution consistency and, immediately after, to engage in discussions and comparison of the internal procedures, leading to a harmonization and validation of these procedures and the adopted models in the inter-technique context. In many occasions, the time series approach joint with the intra- and inter-technique comparison steps also highlighted differences that previously went unnoticed, and corrected incompatibilities. During the past year we have been preparing the ILRS contribution to a second TRF developed in the same way, the ITRF2008. The ILRS approach is based strictly on the current IERS Conventions 2003 and our internal standards. The Unified Analysis Workshop in 2007 stressed a number of areas where each technique needed to focus more attention in future analyses. In the case of SLR, the primary areas of concern were tracking station biases, extending the data span used in the analysis, and target characteristics. The present re-analysis extends from 1983 to 2009, covering a 25-year period, the longest for any of the contributing techniques; although the network and data quality for the 1983-1993 period are significantly poorer than for the latter years, the overall

Soil moisture variations in remotely sensed and reanalysis datasets during weak monsoon conditions over central India and central Myanmar

Science.gov (United States)

Shrivastava, Sourabh; Kar, Sarat C.; Sharma, Anu Rani

2017-07-01

Variation of soil moisture during active and weak phases of summer monsoon JJAS (June, July, August, and September) is very important for sustenance of the crop and subsequent crop yield. As in situ observations of soil moisture are few or not available, researchers use data derived from remote sensing satellites or global reanalysis. This study documents the intercomparison of soil moisture from remotely sensed and reanalyses during dry spells within monsoon seasons in central India and central Myanmar. Soil moisture data from the European Space Agency (ESA)—Climate Change Initiative (CCI) has been treated as observed data and was compared against soil moisture data from the ECMWF reanalysis-Interim (ERA-I) and the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) for the period of 2002-2011. The ESA soil moisture correlates rather well with observed gridded rainfall. The ESA data indicates that soil moisture increases over India from west to east and from north to south during monsoon season. The ERA-I overestimates the soil moisture over India, while the CFSR soil moisture agrees well with the remotely sensed observation (ESA). Over Myanmar, both the reanalysis overestimate soil moisture values and the ERA-I soil moisture does not show much variability from year to year. Day-to-day variations of soil moisture in central India and central Myanmar during weak monsoon conditions indicate that, because of the rainfall deficiency, the observed (ESA) and the CFSR soil moisture values are reduced up to 0.1 m3/m3 compared to climatological values of more than 0.35 m3/m3. This reduction is not seen in the ERA-I data. Therefore, soil moisture from the CFSR is closer to the ESA observed soil moisture than that from the ERA-I during weak phases of monsoon in the study region.

Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations of a four-zone structure using five spacecraft and the VERB code

Science.gov (United States)

Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y. Y.; Kondrashov, D.; Subbotin, D.; Makarevich, R. A.; Donovan, E.; Nagai, T.

2014-11-01

Obtaining the global state of radiation belt electrons through reanalysis is an important step toward validating our current understanding of radiation belt dynamics and for identification of new physical processes. In the current study, reanalysis of radiation belt electrons is achieved through data assimilation of five spacecraft with the 3-D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code using a split-operator Kalman filter technique. The spacecraft data are cleaned for noise, saturation effects, and then intercalibrated on an individual energy channel basis, by considering phase space density conjunctions in the T96 field model. Reanalysis during the CRRES era reveals a never-before-reported four-zone structure in the Earth's radiation belts during the 24 March 1991 shock-induced injection superstorm: (1) an inner belt, (2) the high-energy shock-injection belt, (3) a remnant outer radiation belt, and (4) a second outer radiation belt. The third belt formed near the same time as the second belt and was later enhanced across keV to MeV energies by a second particle injection observed by CRRES and the Northern Solar Terrestrial Array riometer network. During the recovery phase of the storm, the fourth belt was created near L*=4RE, lasting for several days. Evidence is provided that the fourth belt was likely created by a dominant local heating process. This study outlines the necessity to consider all diffusive processes acting simultaneously and the advantage of supporting ground-based data in quantifying the observed radiation belt dynamics. It is demonstrated that 3-D data assimilation can resolve various nondiffusive processes and provides a comprehensive picture of the electron radiation belts.

A critical evaluation of the upper ocean heat budget in the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data for the south central equatorial Pacific

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu Hailong; Liu Xiangcui [State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China); Zhang Minghua [Institute for Terrestrial and Planetary Atmospheres, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, NY (United States); Lin Wuyin, E-mail: lhl@lasg.iap.ac.cn [Atmospheric Sciences Division, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States)

2011-07-15

Coupled ocean-atmospheric models suffer from the common bias of a spurious rain belt south of the central equatorial Pacific throughout the year. Observational constraints on key processes responsible for this bias are scarce. The recently available reanalysis from a coupled model system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data is a potential benchmark for climate models in this region. Its suitability for model evaluation and validation, however, needs to be established. This paper examines the mixed layer heat budget and the ocean surface currents-key factors for the sea surface temperature control in the double Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone in the central Pacific-from 5 deg. S to 10 deg. S and 170 deg. E to 150 deg. W. Two independent approaches are used. The first approach is through comparison of CFSR data with collocated station observations from field experiments; the second is through the residual analysis of the heat budget of the mixed layer. We show that the CFSR overestimates the net surface flux in this region by 23 W m{sup -2}. The overestimated net surface flux is mainly due to an even larger overestimation of shortwave radiation by 44 W m{sup -2}, which is compensated by a surface latent heat flux overestimated by 14 W m{sup -2}. However, the quality of surface currents and the associated oceanic heat transport in CFSR are not compromised by the surface flux biases, and they agree with the best available estimates. The uncertainties of the observational data from field experiments are also briefly discussed in the present study.

Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu

2018-05-01

The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

Modelling Product Families for Product Configuration Systems with Product Variant Master

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hvam, Lars; Haug, Anders

2010-01-01

This article presents an evaluation of applying a suggested method for modelling product families for product configuration based on theory for modelling mechanical products,systems theory and object-oriented modelling. The modelling technique includes a so-called product variant master and CRC-cards...... the three views. Modelling of characteristics of the product variants in a product family Modelling of constraints between parts in the product family Visualisation of the entire product family on a poster e.g. 1x2 meters The product variant master and CRC-cards are means to bridge the gap between domain...... experts and IT-developers, thus making it possible for the domain experts (e.g. engineers from product development) to express their knowledge in a form that is understandable both for the domain experts and the IT-developers. The product variant master and CRC-cards have currently been tested and further...

Polarizing a stored proton beam by spin flip? - A high statistic reanalysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oellers, Dieter

2011-01-01

Prompted by recent, conflicting calculations, we have carried out a measurement of the spin flip cross section in low-energy electron-proton scattering. The experiment uses the cooling electron beam at COSY as an electron target. A reanalysis of the data leeds to a reduced statistical errors resulting in a factor of 4 reduced upper limit for the spin flip cross section. The measured cross sections are too small for making spin flip a viable tool in polarizing a stored beam.

AN EFFICIENT STRUCTURAL REANALYSIS MODEL FOR ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

be required if complete and exact analysis would be carried out. This paper ... qualities even under significantly large design modifications. A numerical example has been presented to show potential capabilities of theproposed model. INTRODUCTION ... equilibrium conditions in the structural system and the subsequent ...

Intercomparison of the Gulf Stream in ocean reanalyses: 1993-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Chi, Lequan; Wolfe, Christopher L. P.; Hameed, Sultan

2018-05-01

In recent years, significant progress has been made in the development of high-resolution ocean reanalysis products. This paper compares aspects of the Gulf Stream (GS) from the Florida Straits to south of the Grand Banks-particularly Florida Strait transport, separation of the GS near Cape Hatteras, GS properties along the Oleander Line (from New Jersey to Bermuda), GS path, and the GS north wall positions-in 13 widely used global reanalysis products of various resolutions, including two unconstrained products. A large spread across reanalysis products is found. HYCOM and GLORYS2v4 stand out for their superior performance by most metrics. Some common biases are found in all discussed models; for example, the velocity structure of the GS near the Oleander Line is too symmetrical and the maximum velocity is too weak compared with observations. Less than half of the reanalysis products show significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) with observations for the GS separation latitude at Cape Hatteras, the GS transport, and net transport across Oleander Line. The cross-stream velocity structure is further discussed by a theoretical model idealizing GS as a smoothed PV front.

Understanding Recent Trends in Freezing Level Height over the Tropical Andes Mountains of South America: An Investigation of Reanalysis Products and GEOSCCM Integrations.

Science.gov (United States)

Zaitchik, B. F.; Russell, A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-12-01

As the global climate warms, the height of the 0°C isotherm - aka the freezing level height (FLH) - rises, especially over mountainous regions. Over the past few decades, FLH in the tropical Andes Mountains of South America has been rising at a rate that is 2 to 3 times faster than would be expected considering the zonally-averaged upper troposphere temperature trends and the recent cooling of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. Rising FLH could have devastating impacts in this region where most of the dry season runoff comes from seasonal snow melt and glacial melt. Yet, is unclear why FLH is rising so rapidly in this particular area and what the quantitative implications will be for tropical Andean water resources. Reanalysis products tend to disagree on the spatial pattern and strength of FLH changes which confounds the issue by making it difficult to uncover the driving mechanisms of these local changes in FLH. Indeed, there are several possible factors that may be contributing to the unprecedented rise in FLH over the Andes (above and beyond the normally expected effects of greenhouse gases) of which the most likely actors are: changes in the state of the tropical Pacific Ocean, changes in sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, shifts in the Hadley cell, indirect effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and recent recovery, and local thermodynamic land-atmosphere feedbacks. To better understand the changes in FLH, which will ultimately contribute to the effort to predict effects on Andean water resources, we analyze FLH in several forcing-separated integrations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM). By separating out the various forcings (greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures, ozone depleting substances, volcanic eruptions, and solar fluctuations), we are able to develop hypotheses for mechanistic drivers of FLH changes which can be rigorously tested. These efforts will contribute to the understanding of

Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor Data Using GPS Zenith Delays and Global Reanalysis Data in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peng Jiang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available GPS has become a very effective tool to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV information, which is important for weather forecasting and nowcasting. The number of geodetic GNSS stations set up in China has substantially increased over the last few decades. However, GPS PWV derivation requires surface pressure to calculate the precise zenith hydrostatic delay and weighted mean temperature to map the zenith wet delay to precipitable water vapor. GPS stations without collocated meteorological sensors can retrieve water vapor using standard atmosphere parameters, which lead to a decrease in accuracy. In this paper, a method of interpolating NWP reanalysis data to site locations for generating corresponding meteorological elements is explored over China. The NCEP FNL dataset provided by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and over 600 observed stations from different sources was selected to assess the quality of the results. A one-year experiment was performed in our study. The types of stations selected include meteorological sites, GPS stations, radio sounding stations, and a sun photometer station. Compared with real surface measurements, the accuracy of the interpolated surface pressure and air temperature both meet the requirements of GPS PWV derivation in most areas; however, the interpolated surface air temperature exhibits lower precision than the interpolated surface pressure. At more than 96% of selected stations, PWV differences caused by the differences between the interpolation results and real measurements were less than 1.0 mm. Our study also indicates that relief amplitude exerts great influence on the accuracy of the interpolation approach. Unsatisfactory interpolation results always occurred in areas of strong relief. GPS PWV data generated from interpolated meteorological parameters are consistent with other PWV products (radio soundings, the NWP reanalysis dataset, and sun photometer PWV data. The

Using the OMI aerosol index and absorption aerosol optical depth to evaluate the NASA MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Buchard, V.; da Silva, A. M.; Colarco, P. R.; Darmenov, A.; Randles, C. A.; Govindaraju, R.; Torres, O.; Campbell, J.; Spurr, R.

2015-05-01

A radiative transfer interface has been developed to simulate the UV aerosol index (AI) from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) aerosol assimilated fields. The purpose of this work is to use the AI and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements as independent validation for the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero). MERRAero is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model that is radiatively coupled to the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module and includes assimilation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Since AI is dependent on aerosol concentration, optical properties and altitude of the aerosol layer, we make use of complementary observations to fully diagnose the model, including AOD from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), aerosol retrievals from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and attenuated backscatter coefficients from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) mission to ascertain potential misplacement of plume height by the model. By sampling dust, biomass burning and pollution events in 2007 we have compared model-produced AI and AAOD with the corresponding OMI products, identifying regions where the model representation of absorbing aerosols was deficient. As a result of this study over the Saharan dust region, we have obtained a new set of dust aerosol optical properties that retains consistency with the MODIS AOD data that were assimilated, while resulting in better agreement with aerosol absorption measurements from OMI. The analysis conducted over the southern African and South American biomass burning regions indicates that revising the spectrally dependent aerosol absorption properties in the near-UV region improves the modeled-observed AI comparisons

Validation of a homogeneous 41-year (1961-2001) winter precipitation hindcasted dataset over the Iberian Peninsula: assessment of the regional improvement of global reanalysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sotillo, M.G. [Area de Medio Fisico, Puertos del Estado, Madrid (Spain); Martin, M.L. [Universidad de Valladolid, Dpto. Matematica Aplicada, Escuela Universitaria de Informatica, Campus de Segovia, Segovia (Spain); Valero, F. [Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Dpto. Astrofisica y CC. de la Atmosfera, Facultad de CC Fisicas, Madrid (Spain); Luna, M.Y. [Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Madrid (Spain)

2006-11-15

A 44-year (1958-2001) homogeneous, Mediterranean, high-resolution atmospheric database was generated through dynamical downscaling within the HIPOCAS (Hindcast of Dynamic Processes of the Ocean and Coastal Areas of Europe) Project framework. This work attempts to provide a validation of the monthly winter HIPOCAS precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands and to evaluate the potential improvement of these new hindcasted data versus global reanalysis datasets. The validation was performed through the comparative analysis with a precipitation database derived from 4,617 in situ stations located over Iberia and the Balearics. The statistical comparative analysis between the observed and the HIPOCAS fields highlights their very good agreement not only in terms of spatial and time distribution, but also in terms of total amount of precipitation. A principal component analysis is carried out, showing that the patterns derived from the HIPOCAS data largely capture the main characteristics of the observed field. Moreover, it is worth to note that the HIPOCAS patterns reproduce accurately the observed regional characteristics linked to the main orographic features of the study domain. The existence of high correlations between the hindcasted and observed principal component time series gives a measure of the model performance ability. An additional comparative study of the HIPOCAS winter precipitation with global reanalysis data (NCEP and ERA) is performed. This study reveals the important regional improvement in the characterization of the observed precipitation introduced by the HIPOCAS hindcast relative to the above global reanalyses. Such improvement is effective not only in terms of total amount values, but also in the spatial distribution, the observed field being much more realistically reproduced by HIPOCAS than by the global reanalysis data. (orig.)

Application of Observed Precipitation in NCEP Global and Regional Data Assimilation Systems, Including Reanalysis and Land Data Assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, K. E.

2006-12-01

The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) applies several different analyses of observed precipitation in both the data assimilation and validation components of NCEP's global and regional numerical weather and climate prediction/analysis systems (including in NCEP global and regional reanalysis). This invited talk will survey these data assimilation and validation applications and methodologies, as well as the temporal frequency, spatial domains, spatial resolution, data sources, data density and data quality control in the precipitation analyses that are applied. Some of the precipitation analyses applied by EMC are produced by NCEP's Climate Prediction Center (CPC), while others are produced by the River Forecast Centers (RFCs) of the National Weather Service (NWS), or by automated algorithms of the NWS WSR-88D Radar Product Generator (RPG). Depending on the specific type of application in data assimilation or model forecast validation, the temporal resolution of the precipitation analyses may be hourly, daily, or pentad (5-day) and the domain may be global, continental U.S. (CONUS), or Mexico. The data sources for precipitation include ground-based gauge observations, radar-based estimates, and satellite-based estimates. The precipitation analyses over the CONUS are analyses of either hourly, daily or monthly totals of precipitation, and they are of two distinct types: gauge-only or primarily radar-estimated. The gauge-only CONUS analysis of daily precipitation utilizes an orographic-adjustment technique (based on the well-known PRISM precipitation climatology of Oregon State University) developed by the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD). The primary NCEP global precipitation analysis is the pentad CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), which blends both gauge observations and satellite estimates. The presentation will include a brief comparison between the CMAP analysis and other global

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

Science.gov (United States)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

2016-03-01

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the 1871-2012 period built on the NOAA Twentieth Century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR). The objective is to fill in the spatial and temporal data gaps in surface observations in order to improve our knowledge on the local-scale climate variability from the late nineteenth century onwards. The SANDHY (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for HYdrology) statistical downscaling method, initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between large-scale 20CR predictors and local-scale predictands from the Safran high-resolution near-surface reanalysis, available from 1958 onwards only. SANDHY provides a daily ensemble of 125 analogue dates over the 1871-2012 period for 608 climatically homogeneous zones paving France. Large precipitation biases in intermediary seasons are shown to occur in regions with high seasonal asymmetry like the Mediterranean. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and under-estimated over the whole of France. Two analogue subselection methods are therefore developed with the aim of keeping the structure of the SANDHY method unchanged while reducing those seasonal biases. The calendar selection keeps the analogues closest to the target calendar day. The stepwise selection applies two new analogy steps based on similarity of the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale 2 m temperature (T). Comparisons to the Safran reanalysis over 1959-2007 and to homogenized series over the whole twentieth century show that biases in the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are reduced with both methods. The stepwise subselection moreover leads to a large improvement of interannual correlation and reduction of errors in seasonal temperature time series. When the calendar subselection is an easily applicable method suitable in

Extending product modeling methods for integrated product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonev, Martin; Wörösch, Michael; Hauksdóttir, Dagný

2013-01-01

Despite great efforts within the modeling domain, the majority of methods often address the uncommon design situation of an original product development. However, studies illustrate that development tasks are predominantly related to redesigning, improving, and extending already existing products...... and PVM methods, in a presented Product Requirement Development model some of the individual drawbacks of each method could be overcome. Based on the UML standard, the model enables the representation of complex hierarchical relationships in a generic product model. At the same time it uses matrix....... Updated design requirements have then to be made explicit and mapped against the existing product architecture. In this paper, existing methods are adapted and extended through linking updated requirements to suitable product models. By combining several established modeling techniques, such as the DSM...

Re-analysis of fatigue data for welded joints using the notch stress approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Mikkel Melters; Mouritsen, Ole Ø.; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

2010-01-01

Experimental fatigue data for welded joints have been collected and subjected to re-analysis using the notch stress approach according to IIW recommendations. This leads to an overview regarding the reliability of the approach, based on a large number of results (767 specimens). Evidently......-welded joints agree quite well with the FAT 225 curve; however a reduction to FAT 200 is suggested in order to achieve approximately the same safety as observed in the nominal stress approach....

Evaluation of a 12-km Satellite-Era Reanalysis of Surface Mass Balance for the Greenland Ice Sheet

Science.gov (United States)

Cullather, R. I.; Nowicki, S.; Zhao, B.; Max, S.

2016-12-01

The recent contribution to sea level change from the Greenland Ice Sheet is thought to be strongly driven by surface processes including melt and runoff. Global reanalyses are potential means of reconstructing the historical time series of ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), but lack spatial resolution needed to resolve ablation areas along the periphery of the ice sheet. In this work, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) is used to examine the spatial and temporal variability of surface melt over the Greenland Ice Sheet. MERRA-2 is produced for the period 1980 to the present at a grid spacing of ½° latitude by ⅝° longitude, and includes snow hydrology processes including compaction, meltwater percolation and refreezing, runoff, and a prognostic surface albedo. The configuration of the MERRA-2 system allows for the background model - the Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) - to be carried in phase space through analyzed states via the computation of analysis increments, a capability referred to as "replay". Here, a MERRA-2 replay integration is conducted in which atmospheric forcing fields are interpolated and adjusted to sub- atmospheric grid-scale resolution. These adjustments include lapse-rate effects on temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables that are known to have a strong elevation dependency over ice sheets. The surface coupling is performed such that mass and energy are conserved. The atmospheric forcing influences the surface representation, which operates on land surface tiles with an approximate 12-km spacing. This produces a high-resolution, downscaled SMB which is interactively coupled to the reanalysis model. We compare the downscaled SMB product with other reanalyses, regional climate model values, and a second MERRA-2 replay in which the background model has been replaced with a 12-km, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5. The assessment

Regional reanalysis without local data: Exploiting the downscaling paradigm

Science.gov (United States)

von Storch, Hans; Feser, Frauke; Geyer, Beate; Klehmet, Katharina; Li, Delei; Rockel, Burkhardt; Schubert-Frisius, Martina; Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo

2017-08-01

This paper demonstrates two important aspects of regional dynamical downscaling of multidecadal atmospheric reanalysis. First, that in this way skillful regional descriptions of multidecadal climate variability may be constructed in regions with little or no local data. Second, that the concept of large-scale constraining allows global downscaling, so that global reanalyses may be completed by additions of consistent detail in all regions of the world. Global reanalyses suffer from inhomogeneities. However, their large-scale componenst are mostly homogeneous; Therefore, the concept of downscaling may be applied to homogeneously complement the large-scale state of the reanalyses with regional detail—wherever the condition of homogeneity of the description of large scales is fulfilled. Technically, this can be done by dynamical downscaling using a regional or global climate model, which's large scales are constrained by spectral nudging. This approach has been developed and tested for the region of Europe, and a skillful representation of regional weather risks—in particular marine risks—was identified. We have run this system in regions with reduced or absent local data coverage, such as Central Siberia, the Bohai and Yellow Sea, Southwestern Africa, and the South Atlantic. Also, a global simulation was computed, which adds regional features to prescribed global dynamics. Our cases demonstrate that spatially detailed reconstructions of the climate state and its change in the recent three to six decades add useful supplementary information to existing observational data for midlatitude and subtropical regions of the world.

Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Mohrmann, Johannes K.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Wood, Robert; Field, Paul R.

2018-02-01

Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the key state variable that moderates the relationship between aerosol and the radiative forcing arising from aerosol-cloud interactions. Uncertainty related to the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties represents the largest uncertainty in total anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we show that regionally averaged time series of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed CDNC of low, liquid-topped clouds is well predicted by the MERRA2 reanalysis near-surface sulfate mass concentration over decadal timescales. A multiple linear regression between MERRA2 reanalyses masses of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS), and dust (DU) shows that CDNC across many different regimes can be reproduced by a simple power-law fit to near-surface SO4, with smaller contributions from BC, OC, SS, and DU. This confirms previous work using a less sophisticated retrieval of CDNC on monthly timescales. The analysis is supported by an examination of remotely sensed sulfur dioxide (SO2) over maritime volcanoes and the east coasts of North America and Asia, revealing that maritime CDNC responds to changes in SO2 as observed by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI). This investigation of aerosol reanalysis and top-down remote-sensing observations reveals that emission controls in Asia and North America have decreased CDNC in their maritime outflow on a decadal timescale.

Comparison and evaluation of gridded radiation products across northern Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Troy, T J; Wood, E F

2009-01-01

Northern Eurasia is a region experiencing documented changes in temperature and large-scale streamflow, yet little attention has been focused on the large-scale energy budgets over the region. We compare station data and gridded radiation products from reanalysis and remote sensing to evaluate the radiative fluxes across northern Eurasia. On annual timescales, we find that the downward shortwave radiation products, with the exception of those of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, compare well with long-term station observations, but that this agreement breaks down with smaller timescales and for downward longwave and upward shortwave and longwave radiation. Of the six gridded products, the Surface Radiation Budget data set performs the best as compared to observations. Differences in radiative fluxes are on the order of 15-20 W m -2 on seasonal timescales, averaged across the region, with larger variations spatially and at smaller timescales. The resulting uncertainty in net radiation has implications for climate and hydrologic analyses that seek to understand changes in northern Eurasia climate and its hydrologic cycle.

The Posterior Sustained Negativity Revisited—An SPN Reanalysis of Jacobsen and Höfel (2003

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Jacobsen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Symmetry is an important cue for the aesthetic judgment of beauty. Using a binary forced-choice format in a cued mixed design, Jacobsen and Höfel (2003 compared aesthetic judgments of beauty and symmetry judgments of novel graphic patterns. A late posterior sustained negativity elicited by symmetric patterns was observed in the symmetry judgment condition, but not in the beauty judgement condition. Therefore, this negativity appeared to be mainly driven by the task.In a series of studies, Bertamini, Makin, and colleagues observed a comparable sustained posterior negativity (SPN to symmetric stimuli, mainly taken to reflect obligatory symmetry processing independent of task requirements. We reanalyzed the data by Jacobsen and Höfel (2003 using similar parameters for data analysis as Bertamini, Makin, and colleagues to examine these apparent differences. The reanalysis confirmed both a task-driven effect on the posterior sustained negativity/SPN to symmetric patterns in the symmetry judgment condition and a strong symmetry-driven SPN to symmetric patterns. Differences between the references used for analyses of the electroencephalogram (EEG had an effect. Based on the reanalysis, the Jacobsen and Höfel (2003 data also fit well with Bertamini’s, Makin’s, and colleagues’ account of obligatory symmetry processing.

Asking 'why' from a distance facilitates emotional processing: a reanalysis of Wimalaweera and Moulds (2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Ayduk, Ozlem; Kross, Ethan

2009-01-01

Wimalaweera and Moulds [Wimalaweera, S. W., & Moulds, M. L. (2008). Processing memories of anger-eliciting events: the effect of asking 'why' from a distance. Behaviour Research and Therapy, 46, 402-409] reported a failure to replicate previous findings demonstrating the effectiveness of analyzing anger-related experiences from a self-distanced perspective for reducing negative affect in the short-term (Ayduk, O., & Kross, E. (2008). [Enhancing the pace of recovery: self-distanced-analysis of negative experiences reduces blood pressure reactivity. Psychological Science, 9(3), 229-231; Kross, E., Ayduk, O., & Mischel, W. (2005). When asking "why" does not hurt. Psychological Science, 16, 709-715.] and facilitating adaptive emotional processing over time [Kross, E., & Ayduk, O. (2008). Facilitating adaptive emotional analysis: distinguishing distanced-analysis of depressive experiences from immersed-analysis and distraction. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin]. A reanalysis of their data that takes into account effect sizes and participants' scores on the avoidance subscale of the Impact of Events Scale, which were not reported in the original write-up, contradict this and a number of other conclusions reported in their article. In this article, we review the key findings that emerged from this reanalysis.

Comprehensive reanalysis of transcription factor knockout expression data in Saccharomyces cerevisiae reveals many new targets.

Science.gov (United States)

Reimand, Jüri; Vaquerizas, Juan M; Todd, Annabel E; Vilo, Jaak; Luscombe, Nicholas M

2010-08-01

Transcription factor (TF) perturbation experiments give valuable insights into gene regulation. Genome-scale evidence from microarray measurements may be used to identify regulatory interactions between TFs and targets. Recently, Hu and colleagues published a comprehensive study covering 269 TF knockout mutants for the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. However, the information that can be extracted from this valuable dataset is limited by the method employed to process the microarray data. Here, we present a reanalysis of the original data using improved statistical techniques freely available from the BioConductor project. We identify over 100,000 differentially expressed genes-nine times the total reported by Hu et al. We validate the biological significance of these genes by assessing their functions, the occurrence of upstream TF-binding sites, and the prevalence of protein-protein interactions. The reanalysed dataset outperforms the original across all measures, indicating that we have uncovered a vastly expanded list of relevant targets. In summary, this work presents a high-quality reanalysis that maximizes the information contained in the Hu et al. compendium. The dataset is available from ArrayExpress (accession: E-MTAB-109) and it will be invaluable to any scientist interested in the yeast transcriptional regulatory system.

Evaluation of water productivity under climate change in irrigated areas of the arid Northwest China using an assemble statistical downscaling method and an agro-hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Liu; Guo, Zezhong; Huang, Guanhua

2018-06-01

The Heihe River Basin (HRB) is the second largest inland river basin, located in the arid region of Northwest China with a serious water shortage. Evaluation of water productivity will provide scientific implications for agricultural water-saving in irrigated areas of the arid region under climate change. Based on observed meteorological data, 23 GCMs outputs and the ERA-40 reanalysis data, an assemble statistical downscaling model was developed to generate climate change scenarios under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 respectively, which were then used to drive the SWAP-EPIC model to simulate crop growth in the irrigated areas of the middle HRB for the future period from 2018 to 2047. Crop yield showed an increasing trend, while crop water consumption decreased gradually in Gaotai and Ganzhou irrigated areas. The water productivity in future 30 years showed an increasing trend in both Gaotai and Ganzhou areas, with the most significant increase under RCP4.5 scenario, which were both larger than 2 kg m-3. Compared with that of the period from 2012 to 2015, the water productivity during 2018-2047 under three RCP scenarios increased by 9.2, 14.3 and 11.8 % in the Gaotai area, and 15.4, 21.6, 19.9 % in the Ganzhou area, respectively.

Product Knowledge Modelling and Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Y.; MacCallum, K. J.; Duffy, Alex

1996-01-01

function-oriented design. Both Specific Product Knowledge and Product Domain Knowledge are modelled at two levels, a meta-model and an information-level.Following that, a computer-based scheme to manage the proposed product lknowledge models within a dynamically changing environment is presented.......The term, Product Knowledge is used to refer to two related but distinct concepts; the knowledge of a specific product (Specific Product Knowledge) and the knowledge of a product domain (Product Domain Knowledge). Modelling and managing Product Knowlege is an essential part of carrying out design.......A scheme is presented in this paper to model, i.e. classify, structure and formalise the product knowledge for the purpose of supporting function-oriented design. The product design specification and four types of required attributes of a specific product have been identified to form the Specific Product...

Simulating and Predicting Cereal Crop Yields in Ethiopia: Model Calibration and Verification

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, M.; Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; Eggen, M.; Adugna, B.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2017-12-01

Agriculture in developing countries are extremely vulnerable to climate variability and changes. In East Africa, most people live in the rural areas with outdated agriculture techniques and infrastructure. Smallholder agriculture continues to play a key role in this area, and the rate of irrigation is among the lowest of the world. As a result, seasonal and inter-annual weather patterns play an important role in the spatiotemporal variability of crop yields. This study investigates how various climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, sunshine) and agricultural practice (e.g., fertilization, irrigation, planting date) influence cereal crop yields using a process-based model (DSSAT) and statistical analysis, and focuses on the Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The DSSAT model is driven with meteorological forcing from the ECMWF's latest reanalysis product that cover the past 35 years; the statistical model will be developed by linking the same meteorological reanalysis data with harvest data at the woreda level from the Ethiopian national dataset. Results from this study will set the stage for the development of a seasonal prediction system for weather and crop yields in Ethiopia, which will serve multiple sectors in coping with the agricultural impact of climate variability.

Hail frequency estimation across Europe based on a combination of overshooting top detections and the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Punge, H. J.; Bedka, K. M.; Kunz, M.; Reinbold, A.

2017-12-01

This article presents a hail frequency estimation based on the detection of cold overshooting cloud tops (OTs) from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) operational weather satellites, in combination with a hail-specific filter derived from the ERA-INTERIM reanalysis. This filter has been designed based on the atmospheric properties in the vicinity of hail reports registered in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). These include Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE), 0-6-km bulk wind shear and freezing level height, evaluated at the nearest time step and interpolated from the reanalysis grid to the location of the hail report. Regions highly exposed to hail events include Northern Italy, followed by South-Eastern Austria and Eastern Spain. Pronounced hail frequency is also found in large parts of Eastern Europe, around the Alps, the Czech Republic, Southern Germany, Southern and Eastern France, and in the Iberic and Apennine mountain ranges.

Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Hansi K. A.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tardif, Robert; Emile-Geay, Julien; Noone, David C.

2018-02-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

Circumpolar Genetic Structure and Recent Gene Flow of Polar Bears: A Reanalysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Malenfant, René M; Davis, Corey S; Cullingham, Catherine I; Coltman, David W

2016-01-01

Recently, an extensive study of 2,748 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from across their circumpolar range was published in PLOS ONE, which used microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes to apparently show altered population structure and a dramatic change in directional gene flow towards the Canadian Archipelago-an area believed to be a future refugium for polar bears as their southernmost habitats decline under climate change. Although this study represents a major international collaborative effort and promised to be a baseline for future genetics work, methodological shortcomings and errors of interpretation undermine some of the study's main conclusions. Here, we present a reanalysis of this data in which we address some of these issues, including: (1) highly unbalanced sample sizes and large amounts of systematically missing data; (2) incorrect calculation of FST and of significance levels; (3) misleading estimates of recent gene flow resulting from non-convergence of the program BayesAss. In contrast to the original findings, in our reanalysis we find six genetic clusters of polar bears worldwide: the Hudson Bay Complex, the Western and Eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the Western and Eastern Polar Basin, and-importantly-we reconfirm the presence of a unique and possibly endangered cluster of bears in Norwegian Bay near Canada's expected last sea-ice refugium. Although polar bears' abundance, distribution, and population structure will certainly be negatively affected by ongoing-and increasingly rapid-loss of Arctic sea ice, these genetic data provide no evidence of strong directional gene flow in response to recent climate change.

Circumpolar Genetic Structure and Recent Gene Flow of Polar Bears: A Reanalysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René M Malenfant

Full Text Available Recently, an extensive study of 2,748 polar bears (Ursus maritimus from across their circumpolar range was published in PLOS ONE, which used microsatellites and mitochondrial haplotypes to apparently show altered population structure and a dramatic change in directional gene flow towards the Canadian Archipelago-an area believed to be a future refugium for polar bears as their southernmost habitats decline under climate change. Although this study represents a major international collaborative effort and promised to be a baseline for future genetics work, methodological shortcomings and errors of interpretation undermine some of the study's main conclusions. Here, we present a reanalysis of this data in which we address some of these issues, including: (1 highly unbalanced sample sizes and large amounts of systematically missing data; (2 incorrect calculation of FST and of significance levels; (3 misleading estimates of recent gene flow resulting from non-convergence of the program BayesAss. In contrast to the original findings, in our reanalysis we find six genetic clusters of polar bears worldwide: the Hudson Bay Complex, the Western and Eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago, the Western and Eastern Polar Basin, and-importantly-we reconfirm the presence of a unique and possibly endangered cluster of bears in Norwegian Bay near Canada's expected last sea-ice refugium. Although polar bears' abundance, distribution, and population structure will certainly be negatively affected by ongoing-and increasingly rapid-loss of Arctic sea ice, these genetic data provide no evidence of strong directional gene flow in response to recent climate change.

Symbolic Dynamics of Reanalysis Data

Science.gov (United States)

Larson, J. W.; Dickens, P. M.

2003-12-01

Symbolic dynamics1 is the study of sequences of symbols belonging to a discrete set of elements, the most commmon example being a sequence of ones and zeroes. Often the set of symbols is derived from a timeseries of a continuous variable through the introduction of a partition function--a process called symbolization. Symbolic dynamics has been used widely in the physical sciences; a geophysical example being the application of C1 and C2 complexity2 to hourly precipitation station data3. The C1 and C2 complexities are computed by examining subsequences--or words--of fixed length L in the limit of large values of L. Recent advances in information theory have led to techniques focused on the growth rate of the Shannon entropy and its asymptotic behavior in the limit of long words--levels of entropy convergence4. The result is a set of measures one can use to quantify the amount of memory stored in the sequence, whether or not an observer is able to synchronize to the sequence, and with what confidence it may be predicted. These techniques may also be used to uncover periodic behavior in the sequence. We are currently applying complexity theory and levels of entropy convergence to gridpoint timeseries from the NCAR/NCEP 50-year reanalysis5. Topics to be discussed include: a brief introduction to symbolic dynamics; a description of the partition function/symbolization strategy; a discussion of C1 and C2 complexity and entropy convergence rates and their utility; and example applications of these techniques to NCAR/NCEP 50-reanalyses gridpoint timeseries, resulting in maps of C1 and C2 complexities and entropy convergence rates. Finally, we will discuss how these results may be used to validate climate models. 1{Hao, Bai-Lin, Elementary Symbolic Dynamics and Chaos in Dissipative Systems, Wold Scientific, Singapore (1989)} 2{d'Alessandro, G. and Politi, A., Phys. Rev. Lett., 64, 1609-1612 (1990).} 3{Elsner, J. and Tsonis, A., J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 400-405 (1993).} 4

Maternal age and Alzheimer's disease: a collaborative re-analysis of case-control studies. EURODEM Risk Factors Research Group

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.A. Rocca; C.M. van Duijn (Cornelia); D.G. Clayton (David); V. Chandra; L. Fratiglioni (Laura); A.B. Graves; A. Heyman; A.F. Jorm; E. Kokmen (Emre); K. Kondo; J.A. Mortimer; S.L. Shalat; H. Soininen; A. Hofman (Albert)

1991-01-01

textabstractTo investigate the possible association between Alzheimer's disease and late maternal age at index birth, we conducted a collaborative re-analysis of existing case-control data sets. Of the 11 studies participating in the EURODEM project, four were included in the analyses regarding

Combined use of local and global hydrometeorological data with regional and global hydrological models in the Magdalena - Cauca river basin, Colombia

Science.gov (United States)

Rodriguez, Erasmo; Sanchez, Ines; Duque, Nicolas; Lopez, Patricia; Kaune, Alexander; Werner, Micha; Arboleda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The Magdalena Cauca Macrobasin (MCMB) in Colombia, with an area of about 257,000 km2, is the largest and most important water resources system in the country. With almost 80% of the Colombian population (46 million people) settled in the basin, it is the main source of water for demands including human consumption, agriculture, hydropower generation, industrial activities and ecosystems. Despite its importance, the basin has witnessed enormous changes in land-cover and extensive deforestation during the last three decades. To make things more complicated, the MCMB currently lacks a set of tools to support planning and decision making processes at scale of the whole watershed. Considering this, the MCMB has been selected as one of the six different regional case studies in the eartH2Observe research project, in which hydrological and meteorological reanalysis products are being validated for the period 1980-2012. The combined use of the hydrological and meteorological reanalysis data, with local hydrometeorological data (precipitation, temperature and streamflow) provided by the National Hydrometeorological Agency (IDEAM), has given us the opportunity to implement and test three hydrological models (VIC, WFLOW and a Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework) at the basin scale. Additionally, results from the global models in the eartH2Observe hydrological reanalysis have been used to evaluate their performance against the observed streamflow data. This paper discusses the comparison between streamflow observations and simulations from the global hydrological models forced with the WFDEI data, and regional models forced with a combination of observed and meteorological reanalysis data, in the whole domain of the MCMB. For the three regional models analysed results show good performances for some sub-basins and poor performances for others. This can be due to the smoothing of the precipitation fields, interpolated from point daily rainfall data, the effect of

A model for optimizing the production of pharmaceutical products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nevena Gospodinova

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The problem associated with the optimal production planning is especially relevant in modern industrial enterprises. The most commonly used optimality criteria in this context are: maximizing the total profit; minimizing the cost per unit of production; maximizing the capacity utilization; minimizing the total production costs. This article aims to explore the possibility for optimizing the production of pharmaceutical products through the construction of a mathematical model that can be viewed in two ways – as a single-product model and a multi-product model. As an optimality criterion it is set the minimization of the cost per unit of production for a given planning period. The author proposes an analytical method for solving the nonlinear optimization problem. An optimal production plan of Tylosin tartrate is found using the single-product model.

A 4-D Climatology (1979-2009) of the Monthly Tropospheric Aerosol Optical Depth Distribution over the Mediterranean Region from a Comparative Evaluation and Blending of Remote Sensing and Model Products

Science.gov (United States)

Nabat, P.; Somot, S.; Mallet, M.; Chiapello, I; Morcrette, J. J.; Solomon, F.; Szopa, S.; Dulac, F; Collins, W.; Ghan, S.;

Product Platform Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Rasmus

for customisation of products. In many companies these changes in the business environment have created a controversy between the need for a wide variety of products offered to the marketplace and a desire to reduce variation within the company in order to increase efficiency. Many companies use the concept...... other. These groups can be varied and combined to form different product variants without increasing the internal variety in the company. Based on the Theory of Domains, the concept of encapsulation in the organ domain is introduced, and organs are formulated as platform elements. Included......This PhD thesis has the title Product Platform Modelling. The thesis is about product platforms and visual product platform modelling. Product platforms have gained an increasing attention in industry and academia in the past decade. The reasons are many, yet the increasing globalisation...

A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid-latitude upper tropospheric jets

Science.gov (United States)

Rikus, Lawrie

2018-04-01

A simple closed contour object identification scheme has been applied to the zonal mean monthly mean zonal wind fields from nine global reanalysis data sets for 31 years of the satellite era (1979-2009) to identify objects corresponding to westerly jet streams. The results cluster naturally into six individual jet streams but only the mid-latitude upper-tropospheric jets are considered here. The time series of the jet properties from all reanalyses are decomposed into seasonal means and anomalies, and correlations between variables are evaluated, with the aim of identifying robust features which can form the basis of evaluation metrics for climate model simulations of the twentieth century. There is substantial agreement between all the reanalyses for all jet properties although there are some systematic differences with particular data sets. Some of the results from the object identification applied to the reanalyses are used in a simple example of a model evaluation score for the zonal mean jet seasonal cycle.

Re-analysis of radiation-induced specific locus mutations in the mouse

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abrahamson, S.; Wolff, S.

1976-01-01

It is stated that a re-analysis of published data on mouse mutation rates induced by x-and gamma rays suggests that the kinetics of induction can be analysed by fitting that data to a parabolic curve. This is interpreted to mean that a substantial proportion of the induced mutations results from gross chromosomal changes such as deletions, some of which are one-track and some of which are two-track. This analysis is based on the assumption that the shape of the dose curve, which in the female is concave upward, reflects the manner in which the mutations are induced rather than representing a one-track (linear) curve whose shape has been modified by differential repair. (author)

Towards validation of the Canadian precipitation analysis (CaPA) for hydrologic modeling applications in the Canadian Prairies

Science.gov (United States)

Boluwade, Alaba; Zhao, K.-Y.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Rasmussen, P.

2018-01-01

This study presents a three-step validation technique to compare the performance of the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) product relative to actual observation as a hydrologic forcing in regional watershed simulation. CaPA is an interpolated (6 h or 24 h accumulation) reanalysis precipitation product in near real time covering all of North America. The analysis procedure involves point-to-point (P2P) and map-to-map (M2M) comparisons, followed by proxy validation using an operational version of the WATFLOOD™ hydrologic model from 2002 to 2005 in the Lake Winnipeg Basin (LWB), Canada. The P2P technique using a Bayesian change point analysis shows that CaPA corresponds with actual observations (Canadian daily climate data, CDCD), on both an annual and seasonal basis. CaPA has the same spatial pattern, dependency and autocorrelation properties as CDCD pixel by pixel (M2M). When used as hydrologic forcing in WATFLOOD™, results indicate that CaPA is a reliable product for water resource modeling and predictions, but that the quality of CaPA data varies annually and seasonally, as does the quality of observations. CaPA proved most beneficial as a hydrologic forcing during winter seasons where observation quality is the lowest. Reanalysis products, such as CaPA, can be a reliable option in sparse network areas, and is beneficial for regional governments when the cost of new weather stations is prohibitive.

Reanalysis of morphine consumption from two randomized controlled trials of gabapentin using longitudinal statistical methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang S

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Shiyuan Zhang,1 James Paul,2 Manyat Nantha-Aree,2 Norman Buckley,2 Uswa Shahzad,2 Ji Cheng,2 Justin DeBeer,5 Mitchell Winemaker,5 David Wismer,5 Dinshaw Punthakee,5 Victoria Avram,5 Lehana Thabane1–4 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, 2Department of Anesthesia, McMaster University, 3Biostatistics Unit/Centre for Evaluation of Medicines, St Joseph’s Healthcare-Hamilton, 4Population Health Research Institute, Hamilton Health Science/McMaster University, 5Department of Surgery, Division of Orthopaedics, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Postoperative pain management in total joint replacement surgery remains ineffective in up to 50% of patients and has an overwhelming impact in terms of patient well-being and health care burden. We present here an empirical analysis of two randomized controlled trials assessing whether addition of gabapentin to a multimodal perioperative analgesia regimen can reduce morphine consumption or improve analgesia for patients following total joint arthroplasty (the MOBILE trials. Methods: Morphine consumption, measured for four time periods in patients undergoing total hip or total knee arthroplasty, was analyzed using a linear mixed-effects model to provide a longitudinal estimate of the treatment effect. Repeated-measures analysis of variance and generalized estimating equations were used in a sensitivity analysis to compare the robustness of the methods. Results: There was no statistically significant difference in morphine consumption between the treatment group and a control group (mean effect size estimate 1.0, 95% confidence interval −4.7, 6.7, P=0.73. The results remained robust across different longitudinal methods. Conclusion: The results of the current reanalysis of morphine consumption align with those of the MOBILE trials. Gabapentin did not significantly reduce morphine consumption in patients undergoing major replacement surgeries. The

Assessing concentration uncertainty estimates from passive microwave sea ice products

Science.gov (United States)

Meier, W.; Brucker, L.; Miller, J. A.

2017-12-01

Sea ice concentration is an essential climate variable and passive microwave derived estimates of concentration are one of the longest satellite-derived climate records. However, until recently uncertainty estimates were not provided. Numerous validation studies provided insight into general error characteristics, but the studies have found that concentration error varied greatly depending on sea ice conditions. Thus, an uncertainty estimate from each observation is desired, particularly for initialization, assimilation, and validation of models. Here we investigate three sea ice products that include an uncertainty for each concentration estimate: the NASA Team 2 algorithm product, the EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) product, and the NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record (CDR) product. Each product estimates uncertainty with a completely different approach. The NASA Team 2 product derives uncertainty internally from the algorithm method itself. The OSI-SAF uses atmospheric reanalysis fields and a radiative transfer model. The CDR uses spatial variability from two algorithms. Each approach has merits and limitations. Here we evaluate the uncertainty estimates by comparing the passive microwave concentration products with fields derived from the NOAA VIIRS sensor. The results show that the relationship between the product uncertainty estimates and the concentration error (relative to VIIRS) is complex. This may be due to the sea ice conditions, the uncertainty methods, as well as the spatial and temporal variability of the passive microwave and VIIRS products.

Data Analysis of GPM Constellation Satellites-IMERG and ERA-Interim precipitation products over West of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Sharifi, Ehsan; Steinacker, Reinhold; Saghafian, Bahram

2016-04-01

Precipitation is a critical component of the Earth's hydrological cycle. The primary requirement in precipitation measurement is to know where and how much precipitation is falling at any given time. Especially in data sparse regions with insufficient radar coverage, satellite information can provide a spatial and temporal context. Nonetheless, evaluation of satellite precipitation is essential prior to operational use. This is why many previous studies are devoted to the validation of satellite estimation. Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation over mountainous basins is of great importance because of their susceptibility to hazards. In situ observations over mountainous areas are mostly limited, but currently available satellite precipitation products can potentially provide the precipitation estimation needed for meteorological and hydrological applications. One of the newest and blended methods that use multi-satellites and multi-sensors has been developed for estimating global precipitation. The considered data set known as Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) for GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) is routinely produced by the GPM constellation satellites. Moreover, recent efforts have been put into the improvement of the precipitation products derived from reanalysis systems, which has led to significant progress. One of the best and a worldwide used model is developed by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). They have produced global reanalysis daily precipitation, known as ERA-Interim. This study has evaluated one year of precipitation data from the GPM-IMERG and ERA-Interim reanalysis daily time series over West of Iran. IMERG and ERA-Interim yield underestimate the observed values while IMERG underestimated slightly and performed better when precipitation is greater than 10mm. Furthermore, with respect to evaluation of probability of detection (POD), threat score (TS), false alarm ratio (FAR) and probability

CRC-cards for Product Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer

2003-01-01

, transportation, service and decommissioning. A main challenge when building product models is to collect and document the product related data, information and knowledge in a structured way. CRC cards are index cards (or computerized versions of these) which are used to record proposed classes, the behavior......This paper describes the CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration) modelling process for building product models. A product model is normally represented in an IT system which contains data, information and knowledge on industrial products and their life cycle properties e.g. manufacturing...... of the classes, their responsibilities, and their relationship to other classes (collaboration). CRC modelling gives an effective, low-tech method for domain-experts, programmers and users to work closely together to identify, structure, understand and document a product model. CRC cards were originally...

Product and Process Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

. These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety......This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

Reanalysis information for eigenvalues derived from a differential equation analysis formulation. [for shell of revolution buckling

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, W. A.; Majumder, D. K.

1974-01-01

The investigation reported demonstrates that in the case considered perturbation methods can be used in a straightforward manner to obtain reanalysis information. A perturbation formula for the buckling loads of a general shell of revolution is derived. The accuracy of the obtained relations and their range of application is studied with the aid of a specific example involving a particular stiffened shell of revolution.

An inter-comparison of six latent and sensible heat flux products over the Southern Ocean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lejiang Yu

2011-11-01

Full Text Available The latent heat fluxes (LHF and sensible heat fluxes (SHF over the Southern Ocean from six different data sets are inter-compared for the period 1988–2000. The six data sets include three satellite-based products, namely, the second version of the Goddard Satellite-Based Surface Turbulent Fluxes data set (GSSTF-2, the third version of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data (HOAPS-3 and the Japanese Ocean Fluxes Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO; two global reanalysis products, namely, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 data set (NCEP-2 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis data set (ERA-40; and the Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes for the Global Oceans data set (OAFlux. All these products reveal a similar pattern in the averaged flux fields. The zonal mean LHF fields all exhibit a continuous increase equatorward. With an exception of HOAPS-3, the zonal mean SHF fields display a minimum value near 50°S, increasing both pole- and equatorward. The differences in the standard deviation for LHF are larger among the six data products than the differences for SHF. Over the regions where the surface fluxes are significantly influenced by the Antarctic Oscillation and the Pacific–South American teleconnection, the values and distributions of both LHF and SHF are consistent among the six products. It was found that the spatial patterns of the standard deviations and trends of LHF and SHF can be explained primarily by sea–air specific humidity and temperature differences; wind speed plays a minor role.

MSWEP : 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979-2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beck, Hylke E.; Van Dijk, Albert I.J.M.; Levizzani, Vincenzo; Schellekens, Jaap; Miralles, Diego G.; Martens, Brecht; De Roo, Ad

2017-01-01

Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979-2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial

Alignment of Product Models and Product State Models - Integration of the Product Lifecycle Phases

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Michael Holm; Kirkby, Lars Phillip; Vesterager, Johan

1999-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integration of the Product Model (PM) and the Product State Model (PCM). Focus is on information exchange from the PSM to the PM within the manufacturing of a single ship. The paper distinguishes between information and knowledge integration. The paper ...... provides some overall strategies for integrating PM and PSM. The context of this discussion is a development project at Odense Steel Shipyard....

Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

2011-01-01

This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

A re-analysis of the Lake Suigetsu terrestrial radiocarbon calibration dataset

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Staff, R.A.; Bronk Ramsey, C.; Nakagawa, T.

2010-01-01

Lake Suigetsu, Honshu Island, Japan provides an ideal sedimentary sequence from which to derive a wholly terrestrial radiocarbon calibration curve back to the limits of radiocarbon detection (circa 60 ka bp). The presence of well-defined, annually-deposited laminae (varves) throughout the entirety of this period provides an independent, high resolution chronometer against which radiocarbon measurements of plant macrofossils from the sediment column can be directly related. However, data from the initial Lake Suigetsu project were found to diverge significantly from alternative, marine-based calibration datasets released around the same time (e.g. ). The main source of this divergence is thought to be the result of inaccuracies in the absolute age profile of the Suigetsu project, caused by both varve counting uncertainties and gaps in the sediment column of unknown duration between successively-drilled core sections. Here, a re-analysis of the previously-published Lake Suigetsu data is conducted. The most recent developments in Bayesian statistical modelling techniques (OxCal v4.1; ) are implemented to fit the Suigetsu data to the latest radiocarbon calibration datasets and thereby estimate the duration of the inter-core section gaps in the Suigetsu data. In this way, the absolute age of the Lake Suigetsu sediment profile is more accurately defined, providing significant information for both radiocarbon calibration and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction purposes.

A re-analysis of neutron diffraction data from UO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, M.J.; Sakata, M.

1979-04-01

The results of a re-analysis of recent single crystal and powder neutron diffraction data from UO2 are presented and discussed. It is shown that apparent inconsistencies in the results of previous analyses of these data arose from differences between the values assumed for some of the parameters and that the various sets of data are in fact extremely consistent. These data also provide a more accurate value for the ratio of the scattering amplitudes, i.e. bU/bO = 1.451(2), which gives a value for bU = 0.842(2) x 10(-12) cm on the assumption of a value for b0 = 0.5805(11) x 10(-12) cm. The temperature factors for the atoms at room temperature are determined to be BU = 0.23(1)Angstrom and BO = 0.44(1)Angstrom(2). (author)

Mass balance re-analysis of Findelengletscher, Switzerland; benefits of extensive snow accumulation measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leo eSold

2016-02-01

Full Text Available A re-analysis is presented here of a 10-year mass balance series at Findelengletscher, a temperate mountain glacier in Switzerland. Calculating glacier-wide mass balance from the set of glaciological point balance observations using conventional approaches, such as the profile or contour method, resulted in significant deviations from the reference value given by the geodetic mass change over a five-year period. This is attributed to the sparsity of observations at high elevations and to the inability of the evaluation schemes to adequately estimate accumulation in unmeasured areas. However, measurements of winter mass balance were available for large parts of the study period from snow probings and density pits. Complementary surveys by helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR were conducted in three consecutive years. The complete set of seasonal observations was assimilated using a distributed mass balance model. This model-based extrapolation revealed a substantial mass loss at Findelengletscher of -0.43m w.e. a^-1 between 2004 and 2014, while the loss was less pronounced for its former tributary, Adlergletscher (-0.30m w.e. a^-1. For both glaciers, the resulting time series were within the uncertainty bounds of the geodetic mass change. We show that the model benefited strongly from the ability to integrate seasonal observations. If no winter mass balance measurements were available and snow cover was represented by a linear precipitation gradient, the geodetic mass balance was not matched. If winter balance measurements by snow probings and snow density pits were taken into account, the model performance was substantially improved but still showed a significant bias relative to the geodetic mass change. Thus the excellent agreement of the model-based extrapolation with the geodetic mass change was owed to an adequate representation of winter accumulation distribution by means of extensive GPR measurements.

Product models for the Construction industry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

1996-01-01

Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given.......Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given....

A procedure for Building Product Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars

1999-01-01

, easily adaptable concepts and methods from data modeling (object oriented analysis) and domain modeling (product modeling). The concepts are general and can be used for modeling all types of specifications in the different phases in the product life cycle. The modeling techniques presented have been......The application of product modeling in manufacturing companies raises the important question of how to model product knowledge in a comprehensible and efficient way. An important challenge is to qualify engineers to model and specify IT-systems (product models) to support their specification...... activities. A basic assumption is that engineers have to take the responsability for building product models to be used in their domain. To do that they must be able to carry out the modeling task on their own without any need for support from computer science experts. This paper presents a set of simple...

Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

Science.gov (United States)

Long, Craig S.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Davis, Sean; Mitchell, Daniel M.; Wright, Corwin J.

2017-12-01

Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon), aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979-2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2) between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979-1998) and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999-2014). There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25) have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from TOVS to ATOVS observations

EPA's Reanalysis of Key Issues Related to Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments (Volume 1) (Interagency Science Discussion Draft)

Science.gov (United States)

EPA is releasing the draft report, EPA's Reanalysis of Key Issues Related to Dioxin Toxicity and Response to NAS Comments (Volume 1), that was distributed to Federal agencies and White House Offices for comment during the Science Discussion step of the Application of global datasets for hydrological modelling of a remote, snowmelt driven catchment in the Canadian Sub-Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Casson, David; Werner, Micha; Weerts, Albrecht; Schellekens, Jaap; Solomatine, Dimitri

2017-04-01

Hydrological modelling in the Canadian Sub-Arctic is hindered by the limited spatial and temporal coverage of local meteorological data. Local watershed modelling often relies on data from a sparse network of meteorological stations with a rough density of 3 active stations per 100,000 km2. Global datasets hold great promise for application due to more comprehensive spatial and extended temporal coverage. A key objective of this study is to demonstrate the application of global datasets and data assimilation techniques for hydrological modelling of a data sparse, Sub-Arctic watershed. Application of available datasets and modelling techniques is currently limited in practice due to a lack of local capacity and understanding of available tools. Due to the importance of snow processes in the region, this study also aims to evaluate the performance of global SWE products for snowpack modelling. The Snare Watershed is a 13,300 km2 snowmelt driven sub-basin of the Mackenzie River Basin, Northwest Territories, Canada. The Snare watershed is data sparse in terms of meteorological data, but is well gauged with consistent discharge records since the late 1970s. End of winter snowpack surveys have been conducted every year from 1978-present. The application of global re-analysis datasets from the EU FP7 eartH2Observe project are investigated in this study. Precipitation data are taken from Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) and temperature data from Watch Forcing Data applied to European Reanalysis (ERA)-Interim data (WFDEI). GlobSnow-2 is a global Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) measurement product funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) and is also evaluated over the local watershed. Downscaled precipitation, temperature and potential evaporation datasets are used as forcing data in a distributed version of the HBV model implemented in the WFLOW framework. Results demonstrate the successful application of global datasets in local watershed modelling, but

Innovation Production Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamam N. Guseinova

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the study of the models of production of innovations at enterprise and state levels. The shift towards a new technology wave induces a change in systems of division of labour as well as establishment of new forms of cooperation that are reflected both in theory and practice of innovation policy and management. Within the scope of the research question we have studied different generation of innovation process, starting with simple linear models - "technology push" and "market pull" - and ending with a complex integrated model of open innovations. There are two organizational models of innovation production at the enterprise level: start-ups in the early stages of their development and ambidextrous organizations. The former are prone to linear models of innovation process, while the latter create innovation within more sophisticated inclusive processes. Companies that effectuate reciprocal ambidexterity stand out from all the rest, since together with start-ups, research and development centres, elements of innovation infrastructure and other economic agents operating in the same value chain they constitute the core of most advanced forms of national innovation systems, namely Triple Helix and Quadruple Helix systems. National innovation systems - models of innovation production at the state level - evolve into systems with a more profound division of labour that enable "line production" of innovations. These tendencies are closely related to the advent and development of the concept of serial entrepreneurship that transforms entrepreneurship into a new type of profession. International experience proves this concept to be efficient in various parts of the world. Nevertheless, the use of above mentioned models and concepts in national innovation system should be justified by socioeconomic conditions of economic regions, since they determine the efficiency of implementation of certain innovation processes and

PET studies of phonetic processing of speech: review, replication, and reanalysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zatorre, R J; Meyer, E; Gjedde, A

1996-01-01

Positron emission tomography was used to investigate cerebral blood flow (CBF) changes associated with the processing of speech. In a first experiment, normal right-handed volunteers were scanned under two conditions that required phonetic processing (discrimination of final consonants and phoneme...... monitoring), and one baseline condition of passive listening. Analysis was carried out by paired-image subtraction, with MRI overlay for anatomical localization. Comparison of each phonetic condition with the baseline condition revealed increased CBF in the left frontal lobe, close to the border between...... Broca's area and the motor cortex, and in a left parietal region. A second experiment showed that this area was not activated by a semantic judgement task. Reanalysis of data from an earlier study, in which various baseline conditions were used, confirmed that this region of left frontal cortex...

Re-analysis of survival data of cancer patients utilizing additive homeopathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Gleiss, Andreas; Frass, Michael; Gaertner, Katharina

2016-08-01

In this short communication we present a re-analysis of homeopathic patient data in comparison to control patient data from the same Outpatient´s Unit "Homeopathy in malignant diseases" of the Medical University of Vienna. In this analysis we took account of a probable immortal time bias. For patients suffering from advanced stages of cancer and surviving the first 6 or 12 months after diagnosis, respectively, the results show that utilizing homeopathy gives a statistically significant (p<0.001) advantage over control patients regarding survival time. In conclusion, bearing in mind all limitations, the results of this retrospective study suggest that patients with advanced stages of cancer might benefit from additional homeopathic treatment until a survival time of up to 12 months after diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A 4-D climatology (1979–2009 of the monthly tropospheric aerosol optical depth distribution over the Mediterranean region from a comparative evaluation and blending of remote sensing and model products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Nabat

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Since the 1980s several spaceborne sensors have been used to retrieve the aerosol optical depth (AOD over the Mediterranean region. In parallel, AOD climatologies coming from different numerical model simulations are now also available, permitting to distinguish the contribution of several aerosol types to the total AOD. In this work, we perform a comparative analysis of this unique multi-year database in terms of total AOD and of its apportionment by the five main aerosol types (soil dust, sea-salt, sulfate, black and organic carbon. We use 9 different satellite-derived monthly AOD products: NOAA/AVHRR, SeaWiFS (2 products, TERRA/MISR, TERRA/MODIS, AQUA/MODIS, ENVISAT/MERIS, PARASOL/POLDER and MSG/SEVIRI, as well as 3 more historical datasets: NIMBUS7/CZCS, TOMS (onboard NIMBUS7 and Earth-Probe and METEOSAT/MVIRI. Monthly model datasets include the aerosol climatology from Tegen et al. (1997, the climate-chemistry models LMDz-OR-INCA and RegCM-4, the multi-model mean coming from the ACCMIP exercise, and the reanalyses GEMS and MACC. Ground-based Level-2 AERONET AOD observations from 47 stations around the basin are used here to evaluate the model and satellite data. The sensor MODIS (on AQUA and TERRA has the best average AOD scores over this region, showing a relevant spatio-temporal variability and highlighting high dust loads over Northern Africa and the sea (spring and summer, and sulfate aerosols over continental Europe (summer. The comparison also shows limitations of certain datasets (especially MERIS and SeaWiFS standard products. Models reproduce the main patterns of the AOD variability over the basin. The MACC reanalysis is the closest to AERONET data, but appears to underestimate dust over Northern Africa, where RegCM-4 is found closer to MODIS thanks to its interactive scheme for dust emissions. The vertical dimension is also investigated using the CALIOP instrument. This study confirms differences of vertical distribution between

European oil product supply modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saint-Antonin, V.

1998-01-01

Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author)

Bias correction of satellite precipitation products for flood forecasting application at the Upper Mahanadi River Basin in Eastern India

Science.gov (United States)

Beria, H.; Nanda, T., Sr.; Chatterjee, C.

2015-12-01

High resolution satellite precipitation products such as Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), etc., offer a promising alternative to flood forecasting in data scarce regions. At the current state-of-art, these products cannot be used in the raw form for flood forecasting, even at smaller lead times. In the current study, these precipitation products are bias corrected using statistical techniques, such as additive and multiplicative bias corrections, and wavelet multi-resolution analysis (MRA) with India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation product,obtained from gauge-based rainfall estimates. Neural network based rainfall-runoff modeling using these bias corrected products provide encouraging results for flood forecasting upto 48 hours lead time. We will present various statistical and graphical interpretations of catchment response to high rainfall events using both the raw and bias corrected precipitation products at different lead times.

Technical Note: On the Use of Nudging for Aerosol-Climate Model Intercomparison Studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Kai; Wan, Hui; Liu, Xiaohong; Ghan, Steven J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, Po-Lun; Rasch, Philip J.; Neubauer, David; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-26

Nudging is an assimilation technique widely used in the development and evaluation of climate models. Con- straining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the artificial forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the relatively strong sensitivity of homogeneous ice nucleation to aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on longwave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. This suggests that nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a good strategy, especially for studies that involve both warm and cold clouds.

A procedure for building product models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Malis, Martin

2001-01-01

This article presents a procedure for building product models to support the specification processes dealing with sales, design of product variants and production preparation. The procedure includes, as the first phase, an analysis and redesign of the business processes, which are to be supported...... with product models. The next phase includes an analysis of the product assortment, and the set up of a so-called product master. Finally the product model is designed and implemented using object oriented modelling. The procedure is developed in order to ensure that the product models constructed are fit...... for the business processes they support, and properly structured and documented, in order to facilitate that the systems can be maintained continually and further developed. The research has been carried out at the Centre for Industrialisation of Engineering, Department of Manufacturing Engineering, Technical...

The Climate Response to Explosive Volcanism in the Last Millennium Reanalysis

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Emile-Geay, J.; Erb, M. P.; Hakim, G. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Toohey, M.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

Explosive volcanism substantially affects the climate system via the direct effect of radiative forcing anomalies and ensuing influences on, and feedback to, major modes of ocean-atmosphere variability. Eruptions therefore offer unparalleled natural experiments with which to study the climate response to stratospheric aerosol loading. While the instrumental record provides a few, modest examples of such eruptions, the Common Era provides a much larger sample with more dramatic instances [Sigl et al, Nature, 2015]. Here we leverage the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR, Hakim et al [JGR-Atm, 2016]), to probe the climate response to explosive volcanism. LMR fuses information from general circulation models and a recent multiproxy compilation [PAGES 2k Consortium, Sci Data, 2017] to depict Common Era climate: surface temperature, 500mb geopotential height, precipitation and drought indices are reconstructed at annual resolution over the past 2,000 years, with error estimates. Using forcing estimates from Toohey & Sigl [ESDD, 2017], the reconstructions shows a 0.2K cooling following the 20 largest eruptions since 750, with maximum impacts over Northern Eurasia and western North America. Comparison to the N-TREND temperature reconstruction [Anchukaitis et al, QSR 2017], which uses a completely independent methodology, shows remarkable agreement in the magnitude and spatial patterns. Surprisingly, reconstructed temperature recovers slowly (10-15y) after major eruptions, a result at odds with conventional wisdom [Robock, Rev. Geophys. 2000] but consistent with modeling results [Pausata et al, PNAS, 2015], and suggestive of an active role for ocean dynamics. Preliminary results show a marginally significant, El Niño-like sea-surface temperature response immediately after the eruption, accompanied by a significant weakening of the Walker circulation and a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. A comparison to PMIP3 simulations shows greater magnitudes of

The PEcAn Project: Accessible Tools for On-demand Ecosystem Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cowdery, E.; Kooper, R.; LeBauer, D.; Desai, A. R.; Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

2014-12-01

Ecosystem models play a critical role in understanding the terrestrial biosphere and forecasting changes in the carbon cycle, however current forecasts have considerable uncertainty. The amount of data being collected and produced is increasing on daily basis as we enter the "big data" era, but only a fraction of this data is being used to constrain models. Until we can improve the problems of model accessibility and model-data communication, none of these resources can be used to their full potential. The Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) is an ecoinformatics toolbox and a set of workflows that wrap around an ecosystem model and manage the flow of information in and out of regional-scale TBMs. Here we present new modules developed in PEcAn to manage the processing of meteorological data, one of the primary driver dependencies for ecosystem models. The module downloads, reads, extracts, and converts meteorological observations to Unidata Climate Forecast (CF) NetCDF community standard, a convention used for most climate forecast and weather models. The module also automates the conversion from NetCDF to model specific formats, including basic merging, gap-filling, and downscaling procedures. PEcAn currently supports tower-based micrometeorological observations at Ameriflux and FluxNET sites, site-level CSV-formatted data, and regional and global reanalysis products such as the North American Regional Reanalysis and CRU-NCEP. The workflow is easily extensible to additional products and processing algorithms.These meteorological workflows have been coupled with the PEcAn web interface and now allow anyone to run multiple ecosystem models for any location on the Earth by simply clicking on an intuitive Google-map based interface. This will allow users to more readily compare models to observations at those sites, leading to better calibration and validation. Current work is extending these workflows to also process field, remotely-sensed, and historical

Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

2011-01-01

Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

Developing an Earth system Inverse model for the Earth's energy and water budgets.

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, K.; Thomas, C.; Liu, C.; Allan, R. P.; Carneiro, D. M.

2017-12-01

The CONCEPT-Heat project aims at developing a consistent energy budget for the Earth system in order to better understand and quantify global change. We advocate a variational "Earth system inverse" solution as the best methodology to bring the necessary expertise from different disciplines together. L'Ecuyer et al (2015) and Rodell et al (2015) first used a variational approach to adjust multiple satellite data products for air-sea-land vertical fluxes of heat and freshwater, achieving closed budgets on a regional and global scale. However their treatment of horizontal energy and water redistribution and its uncertainties was limited. Following the recent work of Liu et al (2015, 2017) which used atmospheric reanalysis convergences to derive a new total surface heat flux product from top of atmosphere fluxes, we have revisited the variational budget approach introducing a more extensive analysis of the role of horizontal transports of heat and freshwater, using multiple atmospheric and ocean reanalysis products. We find considerable improvements in fluxes in regions such as the North Atlantic and Arctic, for example requiring higher atmospheric heat and water convergences over the Arctic than given by ERA-Interim, thereby allowing lower and more realistic oceanic transports. We explore using the variational uncertainty analysis to produce lower resolution corrections to higher resolution flux products and test these against in situ flux data. We also explore the covariance errors implied between component fluxes that are imposed by the regional budget constraints. Finally we propose this as a valuable methodology for developing consistent observational constraints on the energy and water budgets in climate models. We take a first look at the same regional budget quantities in CMIP5 models and consider the implications of the differences for the processes and biases active in the models. Many further avenues of investigation are possible focused on better valuing

Direct stratospheric injection of biomass burning emissions: a case study of the 2009 Australian bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Field, Robert; From, Mike; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew; Flannigan, Mike; Bernath, Peter

2014-05-01

Direct stratospheric injection (DSI) of forest fire smoke represents a direct biogeochemical link between the land surface and stratosphere. DSI events occur regularly in the northern and southern extratropics, and have been observed across a wide range of measurements, but their fate and effects are not well understood. DSIs result from explosive, short-lived fires, and their plumes stand out from background concentrations immediately. This makes it easier to associate detected DSIs to individual fires and their estimated emissions. Because the emissions pulses are brief, chemical decay can be more clearly assessed, and because the emissions pulses are so large, a wide range of rare chemical species can be detected. Observational evidence suggests that they can persist in the stratosphere for several months, enhance ozone production, and be self-lofted to the middle stratosphere through shortwave absorption and diabatic heating. None of these phenomena have been evaluated, however, with a physical model. To that end, we are simulating the smoke plumes from the February 2009 Australia 'Black Saturday' bushfires using the NASA GISS ModelE2 composition-climate model, nudged toward horizontal winds from reanalysis. To-date, this is the best-observed DSI in the southern hemisphere. Chemical and aerosol signatures of the plume were observed in a wide array of limb and nadir satellite retrievals. Detailed estimates of fuel consumption and injection height have been made because of the severity of the fires. Uncommon among DSIs events was a large segment of the plume that entrained into the upper equatorial easterlies. Preliminary modeling results show that the relative strengths of the equatorial and extratropical plume segments are sensitive to the plume's initial injection height. This highlights the difficulty in reconciling uncertainty in the reanalysis over the Southern Hemisphere with fairly-well constrained estimates of fire location and injection height at the

Recombination pattern reanalysis of some HIV-1 circulating recombination forms suggest the necessity and difficulty of revision.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lei Jia

Full Text Available Recombination is one of the major mechanisms underlying the generation of HIV-1 variability. Currently 61 circulating recombinant forms of HIV-1 have been identified. With the development of recombination detection techniques and accumulation of HIV-1 reference stains, more accurate mosaic structures of circulating recombinant forms (CRFs, like CRF04 and CRF06, have undergone repeated analysis and upgrades. Such revisions may also be necessary for other CRFs. Unlike previous studies, whose results are based primarily on a single recombination detection program, the current study was based on multiple recombination analysis, which may have produced more impartial results.Representative references of 3 categories of intersubtype recombinants were selected, including BC recombinants (CRF07 and CRF08, BG recombinants (CRF23 and CRF24, and BF recombinants (CRF38 and CRF44. They were reanalyzed in detail using both the jumping profile hidden Markov model and RDP3.The results indicate that revisions and upgrades are very necessary and the entire re-analysis suggested 2 types of revision: (i length of inserted fragments; and (ii number of inserted fragments. The reanalysis also indicated that determination of small regions of about 200 bases or fewer should be performed with more caution.Results indicated that the involvement of multiple recombination detection programs is very necessary. Additionally, results suggested two major challenges, one involving the difficulty of accurately determining the locations of breakpoints and the second involving identification of small regions of about 200 bases or fewer with greater caution. Both indicate the complexity of HIV-1 recombination. The resolution would depend critically on development of a recombination analysis algorithm, accumulation of HIV-1 stains, and a higher sequencing quality. With the changes in recombination pattern, phylogenetic relationships of some CRFs may also change. All these results may

Climatology and interannual variability of dynamic variables in multiple reanalyses evaluated by the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. S. Long

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Two of the most basic parameters generated from a reanalysis are temperature and winds. Temperatures in the reanalyses are derived from conventional (surface and balloon, aircraft, and satellite observations. Winds are observed by conventional systems, cloud tracked, and derived from height fields, which are in turn derived from the vertical temperature structure. In this paper we evaluate as part of the SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP the temperature and wind structure of all the recent and past reanalyses. This evaluation is mainly among the reanalyses themselves, but comparisons against independent observations, such as HIRDLS and COSMIC temperatures, are also presented. This evaluation uses monthly mean and 2.5° zonal mean data sets and spans the satellite era from 1979–2014. There is very good agreement in temperature seasonally and latitudinally among the more recent reanalyses (CFSR, MERRA, ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA-2 between the surface and 10 hPa. At lower pressures there is increased variance among these reanalyses that changes with season and latitude. This variance also changes during the time span of these reanalyses with greater variance during the TOVS period (1979–1998 and less variance afterward in the ATOVS period (1999–2014. There is a distinct change in the temperature structure in the middle and upper stratosphere during this transition from TOVS to ATOVS systems. Zonal winds are in greater agreement than temperatures and this agreement extends to lower pressures than the temperatures. Older reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, ERA-40, JRA-25 have larger temperature and zonal wind disagreement from the more recent reanalyses. All reanalyses to date have issues analysing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO winds. Comparisons with Singapore QBO winds show disagreement in the amplitude of the westerly and easterly anomalies. The disagreement with Singapore winds improves with the transition from

The northern annular mode in summer and its relation to solar activity variations in the GISS ModelE

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jae N.; Hameed, Sultan; Shindell, Drew T.

2008-03-01

The northern annular mode (NAM) has been successfully used in several studies to understand the variability of the winter atmosphere and its modulation by solar activity. The variability of summer circulation can also be described by the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of geopotential heights. We compare the annular modes of the summer geopotential heights in the northern hemisphere stratosphere and troposphere in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE with those in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis. In the stratosphere, the summer NAM obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as well as from the ModelE simulations has the same sign throughout the northern hemisphere, but shows greater variability at low latitudes. The patterns in both analyses are consistent with the interpretation that low NAM conditions represent an enhancement of the seasonal difference between the summer and the annual averages of geopotential height, temperature and velocity distributions, while the reverse holds for high NAM conditions. Composite analysis of high and low NAM cases in both model and observation suggests that the summer stratosphere is more "summer-like" when the solar activity is near a maximum. This means that the zonal easterly wind flow is stronger and the temperature is higher than normal. Thus increased irradiance favors a low summer NAM. A quantitative comparison of the anti-correlation between the NAM and the solar forcing is presented in the model and in the observation, both of which show lower/higher NAM index in solar maximum/minimum conditions. The temperature fluctuations in simulated solar minimum conditions are greater than in solar maximum throughout the summer stratosphere. The summer NAM in the troposphere obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis has a dipolar zonal structure with maximum variability over the Asian monsoon region. The corresponding EOF in ModelE has

Modeling Novo Nordisk Production Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miller, Thomas Dedenroth

1997-01-01

This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'.......This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'....

Snow water equivalent in the Alps as seen by gridded data sets, CMIP5 and CORDEX climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Terzago

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The estimate of the current and future conditions of snow resources in mountain areas would require reliable, kilometre-resolution, regional-observation-based gridded data sets and climate models capable of properly representing snow processes and snow–climate interactions. At the moment, the development of such tools is hampered by the sparseness of station-based reference observations. In past decades passive microwave remote sensing and reanalysis products have mainly been used to infer information on the snow water equivalent distribution. However, the investigation has usually been limited to flat terrains as the reliability of these products in mountain areas is poorly characterized.This work considers the available snow water equivalent data sets from remote sensing and from reanalyses for the greater Alpine region (GAR, and explores their ability to provide a coherent view of the snow water equivalent distribution and climatology in this area. Further we analyse the simulations from the latest-generation regional and global climate models (RCMs, GCMs, participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment over the European domain (EURO-CORDEX and in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 respectively. We evaluate their reliability in reproducing the main drivers of snow processes – near-surface air temperature and precipitation – against the observational data set EOBS, and compare the snow water equivalent climatology with the remote sensing and reanalysis data sets previously considered. We critically discuss the model limitations in the historical period and we explore their potential in providing reliable future projections.The results of the analysis show that the time-averaged spatial distribution of snow water equivalent and the amplitude of its annual cycle are reproduced quite differently by the different remote sensing and reanalysis data sets, which in fact exhibit a large spread around

Snow water equivalent in the Alps as seen by gridded data sets, CMIP5 and CORDEX climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Terzago, Silvia; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa; Provenzale, Antonello

2017-07-01

The estimate of the current and future conditions of snow resources in mountain areas would require reliable, kilometre-resolution, regional-observation-based gridded data sets and climate models capable of properly representing snow processes and snow-climate interactions. At the moment, the development of such tools is hampered by the sparseness of station-based reference observations. In past decades passive microwave remote sensing and reanalysis products have mainly been used to infer information on the snow water equivalent distribution. However, the investigation has usually been limited to flat terrains as the reliability of these products in mountain areas is poorly characterized.This work considers the available snow water equivalent data sets from remote sensing and from reanalyses for the greater Alpine region (GAR), and explores their ability to provide a coherent view of the snow water equivalent distribution and climatology in this area. Further we analyse the simulations from the latest-generation regional and global climate models (RCMs, GCMs), participating in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment over the European domain (EURO-CORDEX) and in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) respectively. We evaluate their reliability in reproducing the main drivers of snow processes - near-surface air temperature and precipitation - against the observational data set EOBS, and compare the snow water equivalent climatology with the remote sensing and reanalysis data sets previously considered. We critically discuss the model limitations in the historical period and we explore their potential in providing reliable future projections.The results of the analysis show that the time-averaged spatial distribution of snow water equivalent and the amplitude of its annual cycle are reproduced quite differently by the different remote sensing and reanalysis data sets, which in fact exhibit a large spread around the ensemble mean. We

A re-analysis of Price's "Islam and human rights: a case of deceptive first appearances".

Science.gov (United States)

Schumm, Walter R

2003-12-01

Daniel Price in his analysis of Islamic Political Culture and Human Rights concluded that "... government rooted in Islam does not facilitate the abuse of human rights." A re-analysis of his data for 23 Islamic governments demonstrates otherwise. There is a significant trend (pSharia law (if not any secular or religious legal system) may have serious implications for human rights--or at least, Western Euro-American conceptualizations of human rights. At the same time, support for human rights may increase as Islamic governments shift from mostly secular to moderate applications of Islamic law.

Cyclone Activity in the Arctic From an Ensemble of Regional Climate Models (Arctic CORDEX)

Science.gov (United States)

Akperov, Mirseid; Rinke, Annette; Mokhov, Igor I.; Matthes, Heidrun; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Adakudlu, Muralidhar; Cassano, John; Christensen, Jens H.; Dembitskaya, Mariya A.; Dethloff, Klaus; Fettweis, Xavier; Glisan, Justin; Gutjahr, Oliver; Heinemann, Günther; Koenigk, Torben; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Laprise, René; Mottram, Ruth; Nikiéma, Oumarou; Scinocca, John F.; Sein, Dmitry; Sobolowski, Stefan; Winger, Katja; Zhang, Wenxin

2018-03-01

The ability of state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate cyclone activity in the Arctic is assessed based on an ensemble of 13 simulations from 11 models from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative. Some models employ large-scale spectral nudging techniques. Cyclone characteristics simulated by the ensemble are compared with the results forced by four reanalyses (ERA-Interim, National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2, and Japan Meteorological Agency-Japanese 55-year reanalysis) in winter and summer for 1981-2010 period. In addition, we compare cyclone statistics between ERA-Interim and the Arctic System Reanalysis reanalyses for 2000-2010. Biases in cyclone frequency, intensity, and size over the Arctic are also quantified. Variations in cyclone frequency across the models are partly attributed to the differences in cyclone frequency over land. The variations across the models are largest for small and shallow cyclones for both seasons. A connection between biases in the zonal wind at 200 hPa and cyclone characteristics is found for both seasons. Most models underestimate zonal wind speed in both seasons, which likely leads to underestimation of cyclone mean depth and deep cyclone frequency in the Arctic. In general, the regional climate models are able to represent the spatial distribution of cyclone characteristics in the Arctic but models that employ large-scale spectral nudging show a better agreement with ERA-Interim reanalysis than the rest of the models. Trends also exhibit the benefits of nudging. Models with spectral nudging are able to reproduce the cyclone trends, whereas most of the nonnudged models fail to do so. However, the cyclone characteristics and trends are sensitive to the choice of nudged variables.

Product Family Modelling for Manufacturing Planning

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Kaj Asbjørn; Petersen, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

2011-01-01

To enable product configuration of a product family, it is important to develop a model of the selected product family. From such a model, an often performed practice is to make a product configurator from which customers can specify individual products from the family. To get further utilisation...

Steps toward a CONUS-wide reanalysis with archived NEXRAD data using National Mosaic and Multisensor Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (NMQ/Q2) algorithms

Science.gov (United States)

Stevens, S. E.; Nelson, B. R.; Langston, C.; Qi, Y.

2012-12-01

The National Mosaic and Multisensor QPE (NMQ/Q2) software suite, developed at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, OK, addresses a large deficiency in the resolution of currently archived precipitation datasets. Current standards, both radar- and satellite-based, provide for nationwide precipitation data with a spatial resolution of up to 4-5 km, with a temporal resolution as fine as one hour. Efforts are ongoing to process archived NEXRAD data for the period of record (1996 - present), producing a continuous dataset providing precipitation data at a spatial resolution of 1 km, on a timescale of only five minutes. In addition, radar-derived precipitation data are adjusted hourly using a wide variety of automated gauge networks spanning the United States. Applications for such a product range widely, from emergency management and flash flood guidance, to hydrological studies and drought monitoring. Results are presented from a subset of the NEXRAD dataset, providing basic statistics on the distribution of rainrates, relative frequency of precipitation types, and several other variables which demonstrate the variety of output provided by the software. Precipitation data from select case studies are also presented to highlight the increased resolution provided by this reanalysis and the possibilities that arise from the availability of data on such fine scales. A previously completed pilot project and steps toward a nationwide implementation are presented along with proposed strategies for managing and processing such a large dataset. Reprocessing efforts span several institutions in both North Carolina and Oklahoma, and data/software coordination are key in producing a homogeneous record of precipitation to be archived alongside NOAA's other Climate Data Records. Methods are presented for utilizing supercomputing capability in expediting processing, to allow for the iterative nature of a reanalysis effort.

ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

2018-01-01

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

Modelling production system architectures in the early phases of product development

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir; Ravn, Poul Martin; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

2016-01-01

are needed and appropriate to enable determination of obtainable product quality. In order to meet this challenge, it is suggested that a visual modelling framework be adopted that clarifies which product and production features are known at a specific time of the project and which features will be worked...... on – leading to an improved basis for prioritizing activities in the project. Requirements for the contents of the framework are presented, and literature on production and system models is reviewed. The production system architecture modelling framework is founded on methods and approaches in literature......This article suggests a framework for modelling a production system architecture in the early phases of product development.The challenge in these phases is that the products to be produced are not completely defined and yet decisions need to be made early in the process on what investments...

Temporal and spatial variability of wind resources in the United States as derived from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman

2015-01-01

This study examines the spatial and temporal variability of wind speed at 80m above ground (the average hub height of most modern wind turbines) in the contiguous United States using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data from 1979 to 2011. The mean 80-m wind exhibits strong seasonality and large spatial variability, with higher (lower) wind speeds in the...

Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project

Processes of Change in Acceptance and Commitment Therapy and Cognitive Therapy for Depression: A Mediation Reanalysis of Zettle and Rains

Science.gov (United States)

Zettle, Robert D.; Rains, Jeanetta C.; Hayes, Steven C.

2011-01-01

Several articles have recently questioned the distinction between acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) and traditional cognitive therapy (CT). This study presents a reanalysis of data from Zettle and Rains that compared 12 weeks of group CT with group ACT. For theoretical reasons, Zettle and Rains also included a modified form of CT that did…

A Production Model for Deteriorating Inventory Items with Production Disruptions

OpenAIRE

Yong He; Ju He

2010-01-01

Disruption management has recently become an active area of research. In this study, an extension is made to consider the fact that some products may deteriorate during storage. A production-inventory model for deteriorating items with production disruptions is developed. Then the optimal production and inventory plans are provided, so that the manufacturer can reduce the loss caused by disruptions. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the model.

An integrated production, inventory and preventive maintenance model for a multi-product production system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Xuejuan; Wang, Wenbin; Peng, Rui

2015-01-01

This paper considers a production system that can produce multiple products alternately. Products go through the system in a sequence and a complete run of all products forms a production cycle. An integrated production, inventory and preventive maintenance model is constructed, which is characterized by the delay-time concept. Two different situations are studied based on whether the unqualified products and downtime caused by the failures of the system, set-up and preventive maintenance can be ignored or not. Three cases are considered for each situation, depending on the position of the preventive maintenance epochs: the first case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at the end of each production cycle; the second case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at each set-up time of the products; and the third case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at some set-up times only, since it may not always be optimal to carry out preventive maintenance at the end of the production cycle or at each set-up time. The modeling objectives are to find the optimal number of production cycles per year and the optimal position of preventive maintenance that will maximize the expected profit per unit time. Numerical examples, using real data, are presented to illustrate the model. - Highlights: • We propose an integrated economic production quantity and preventive maintenance model. • The situation that multiple products are produced on the same system alternately is studied. • Two situations are studied based on whether the downtime and the product quality can be ignored or not. • We use enumeration method and analytical method to select the optimal preventive maintenance policy, respectively. • We use the delay-time concept to model the preventive maintenance policy

The climatology of planetary boundary layer height in China derived from radiosonde and reanalysis data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Guo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The important roles of the planetary boundary layer (PBL in climate, weather and air quality have long been recognized, but little is known about the PBL climatology in China. Using the fine-resolution sounding observations made across China and reanalysis data, we conducted a comprehensive investigation of the PBL in China from January 2011 to July 2015. The boundary layer height (BLH is found to be generally higher in spring and summer than that in fall and winter. The comparison of seasonally averaged BLHs derived from observations and reanalysis, on average, shows good agreement, despite the pronounced inconsistence in some regions. The BLH, derived from soundings conducted three or four times daily in summer, tends to peak in the early afternoon, and the diurnal amplitude of BLH is higher in the northern and western subregions of China than other subregions. The meteorological influence on the annual cycle of BLH is investigated as well, showing that BLH at most sounding sites is negatively associated with the surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability, but positively associated with the near-surface wind speed and temperature. In addition, cloud tends to suppress the development of PBL, particularly in the early afternoon. This indicates that meteorology plays a significant role in the PBL processes. Overall, the key findings obtained from this study lay a solid foundation for us to gain a deep insight into the fundamentals of PBL in China, which helps to understand the roles that the PBL plays in the air pollution, weather and climate of China.

Crop Yield Simulations Using Multiple Regional Climate Models in the Southwestern United States

Science.gov (United States)

Stack, D.; Kafatos, M.; Kim, S.; Kim, J.; Walko, R. L.

2013-12-01

Agricultural productivity (described by crop yield) is strongly dependent on climate conditions determined by meteorological parameters (e.g., temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation). California is the largest producer of agricultural products in the United States, but crops in associated arid and semi-arid regions live near their physiological limits (e.g., in hot summer conditions with little precipitation). Thus, accurate climate data are essential in assessing the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity in the Southwestern United States and other arid regions. To address this issue, we produced simulated climate datasets and used them as input for the crop production model. For climate data, we employed two different regional climate models (WRF and OLAM) using a fine-resolution (8km) grid. Performances of the two different models are evaluated in a fine-resolution regional climate hindcast experiment for 10 years from 2001 to 2010 by comparing them to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. Based on this comparison, multi-model ensembles with variable weighting are used to alleviate model bias and improve the accuracy of crop model productivity over large geographic regions (county and state). Finally, by using a specific crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings from the multi-regional climate model ensemble, we demonstrate the degree to which maize yields are sensitive to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States.

Framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which supports product modelling for mass customization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer; Hvam, Lars

2003-01-01

on experience from product modelling projects in several companies. Among them for example companies manufacturing electronic switchboards, spray dryer systems and air conditioning equipment. The framework is divided into three views: the product knowledge view, the life phase system view and the transformation...... and personalization. The framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge is based on the following theories: axiomatic design, technical systems, theory of domains, theory of structuring, theory of properties and the framework for the content of product and product related models. The framework is built......The article presents a framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which can be used to support the product modelling process which is needed for developing IT systems. These IT systems are important tools for many companies when they aim at achieving mass customization...

Direct integration of intensity-level data from Affymetrix and Illumina microarrays improves statistical power for robust reanalysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Turnbull Arran K

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Affymetrix GeneChips and Illumina BeadArrays are the most widely used commercial single channel gene expression microarrays. Public data repositories are an extremely valuable resource, providing array-derived gene expression measurements from many thousands of experiments. Unfortunately many of these studies are underpowered and it is desirable to improve power by combining data from more than one study; we sought to determine whether platform-specific bias precludes direct integration of probe intensity signals for combined reanalysis. Results Using Affymetrix and Illumina data from the microarray quality control project, from our own clinical samples, and from additional publicly available datasets we evaluated several approaches to directly integrate intensity level expression data from the two platforms. After mapping probe sequences to Ensembl genes we demonstrate that, ComBat and cross platform normalisation (XPN, significantly outperform mean-centering and distance-weighted discrimination (DWD in terms of minimising inter-platform variance. In particular we observed that DWD, a popular method used in a number of previous studies, removed systematic bias at the expense of genuine biological variability, potentially reducing legitimate biological differences from integrated datasets. Conclusion Normalised and batch-corrected intensity-level data from Affymetrix and Illumina microarrays can be directly combined to generate biologically meaningful results with improved statistical power for robust, integrated reanalysis.

Enriching step-based product information models to support product life-cycle activities

Science.gov (United States)

Sarigecili, Mehmet Ilteris

The representation and management of product information in its life-cycle requires standardized data exchange protocols. Standard for Exchange of Product Model Data (STEP) is such a standard that has been used widely by the industries. Even though STEP-based product models are well defined and syntactically correct, populating product data according to these models is not easy because they are too big and disorganized. Data exchange specifications (DEXs) and templates provide re-organized information models required in data exchange of specific activities for various businesses. DEXs show us it would be possible to organize STEP-based product models in order to support different engineering activities at various stages of product life-cycle. In this study, STEP-based models are enriched and organized to support two engineering activities: materials information declaration and tolerance analysis. Due to new environmental regulations, the substance and materials information in products have to be screened closely by manufacturing industries. This requires a fast, unambiguous and complete product information exchange between the members of a supply chain. Tolerance analysis activity, on the other hand, is used to verify the functional requirements of an assembly considering the worst case (i.e., maximum and minimum) conditions for the part/assembly dimensions. Another issue with STEP-based product models is that the semantics of product data are represented implicitly. Hence, it is difficult to interpret the semantics of data for different product life-cycle phases for various application domains. OntoSTEP, developed at NIST, provides semantically enriched product models in OWL. In this thesis, we would like to present how to interpret the GD & T specifications in STEP for tolerance analysis by utilizing OntoSTEP.

Re-annotation and re-analysis of the Campylobacter jejuni NCTC11168 genome sequence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dorrell Nick

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial cause of human gastroenteritis in the developed world. To improve our understanding of this important human pathogen, the C. jejuni NCTC11168 genome was sequenced and published in 2000. The original annotation was a milestone in Campylobacter research, but is outdated. We now describe the complete re-annotation and re-analysis of the C. jejuni NCTC11168 genome using current database information, novel tools and annotation techniques not used during the original annotation. Results Re-annotation was carried out using sequence database searches such as FASTA, along with programs such as TMHMM for additional support. The re-annotation also utilises sequence data from additional Campylobacter strains and species not available during the original annotation. Re-annotation was accompanied by a full literature search that was incorporated into the updated EMBL file [EMBL: AL111168]. The C. jejuni NCTC11168 re-annotation reduced the total number of coding sequences from 1654 to 1643, of which 90.0% have additional information regarding the identification of new motifs and/or relevant literature. Re-annotation has led to 18.2% of coding sequence product functions being revised. Conclusions Major updates were made to genes involved in the biosynthesis of important surface structures such as lipooligosaccharide, capsule and both O- and N-linked glycosylation. This re-annotation will be a key resource for Campylobacter research and will also provide a prototype for the re-annotation and re-interpretation of other bacterial genomes.

BALTEX water and energy budgets in the NCEP/DOE reanalysis II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roads, J. [Experimental Climate Prediction Center, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA (United States); Raschke, E. [Meteorologisches Institut der Universitaet Hamburg (Germany); Rocke, B. [Institute for Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center, Geesthacht (Germany)

2002-07-01

Water and energy budgets from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Dept. of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis II (NCEPRII) are described for the Baltic Sea catchment and sea (BALTEX). Annually, NCEPRII shows 0.7 mm d{sup -1} of atmospheric moisture converged into the land region with a corresponding runoff of 0.7 mm d{sup -1} to the Baltic Sea, consistent with observations. However, precipitation is too low; evaporation is too large; runoff does not have an appropriate winter minimum and spring maximum; the assimilation and surface nudging are too large. Important hydroclimatic characteristics can still be discerned. During summer, atmospheric water vapor, precipitation, evaporation, and surface and atmospheric radiative heating increase and the atmospheric radiative cooling, dry static energy convergence decrease. There are large contrasts between the sea and land; during winter sensible heat is transferred from the sea to the atmosphere and sea evaporation and precipitation are largest during the fall and winter; somewhat opposite behavior occurs over land. (orig.)

Multiresolution comparison of precipitation datasets for large-scale models

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, K. P.; Sapriza Azuri, G.; Davison, B.; DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.

2014-12-01

Gridded precipitation datasets are crucial for driving large-scale models which are related to weather forecast and climate research. However, the quality of precipitation products is usually validated individually. Comparisons between gridded precipitation products along with ground observations provide another avenue for investigating how the precipitation uncertainty would affect the performance of large-scale models. In this study, using data from a set of precipitation gauges over British Columbia and Alberta, we evaluate several widely used North America gridded products including the Canadian Gridded Precipitation Anomalies (CANGRD), the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis, the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project, the thin plate spline smoothing algorithms (ANUSPLIN) and Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA). Based on verification criteria for various temporal and spatial scales, results provide an assessment of possible applications for various precipitation datasets. For long-term climate variation studies (~100 years), CANGRD, NCEP, WATCH and ANUSPLIN have different comparative advantages in terms of their resolution and accuracy. For synoptic and mesoscale precipitation patterns, CaPA provides appealing performance of spatial coherence. In addition to the products comparison, various downscaling methods are also surveyed to explore new verification and bias-reduction methods for improving gridded precipitation outputs for large-scale models.

A product feature-based user-centric product search model

OpenAIRE

Ben Jabeur, Lamjed; Soulier, Laure; Tamine, Lynda; Mousset, Paul

2016-01-01

During the online shopping process, users would search for interesting products and quickly access those that fit with their needs among a long tail of similar or closely related products. Our contribution addresses head queries that are frequently submitted on e-commerce Web sites. Head queries usually target featured products with several variations, accessories, and complementary products. We present in this paper a product feature-based user-centric model for product search involving in a...

Hybrid simulation models of production networks

CERN Document Server

Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

2001-01-01

This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

On the use of MOZAIC-IAGOS data to assess the ability of the MACC reanalysis to reproduce the distribution of ozone and CO in the UTLS over Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrey Gaudel

2015-12-01

Full Text Available MOZAIC-IAGOS data are used to assess the ability of the MACC reanalysis (REAN to reproduce distributions of ozone (O3 and carbon monoxide (CO, along with vertical and inter-annual variability in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere region (UTLS over Europe for the period 2003–2010. A control run (CNTRL, without assimilation is compared with the MACC reanalysis (REAN, with assimilation to assess the impact of assimilation. On average over the period, REAN underestimates ozone by 60 ppbv in the lower stratosphere (LS, whilst CO is overestimated by 20 ppbv. In the upper troposphere (UT, ozone is overestimated by 50 ppbv, while CO is partly over or underestimated by up to 20 ppbv. As expected, assimilation generally improves model results but there are some exceptions. Assimilation leads to increased CO mixing ratios in the UT which reduce the biases of the model in this region but the difference in CO mixing ratios between LS and UT has not changed and remains underestimated after assimilation. Therefore, this leads to a significant positive bias of CO in the LS after assimilation. Assimilation improves estimates of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle for both species. Additionally, the observations clearly show a general negative trend of CO in the UT which is rather well reproduced by REAN. However, REAN misses the observed inter-annual variability in summer. The O3–CO correlation in the Ex-UTLS is rather well reproduced by the CNTRL and REAN, although REAN tends to miss the lowest CO mixing ratios for the four seasons and tends to oversample the extra-tropical transition layer (ExTL region in spring. This evaluation stresses the importance of the model gradients for a good description of the mixing in the Ex-UTLS region, which is inherently difficult to observe from satellite instruments.

Early-childhood housing mobility and subsequent PTSD in adolescence: a Moving to Opportunity reanalysis [version 1; referees: 2 approved

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David C. Norris

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In a 2014 report on adolescent mental health outcomes in the Moving to Opportunity for Fair Housing Demonstration (MTO, Kessler et al. reported that, at 10- to 15-year follow-up, boys from households randomized to an experimental housing voucher intervention experienced 12-month prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD at several times the rate of boys from control households. We reanalyze this finding here, bringing to light a PTSD outcome imputation procedure used in the original analysis, but not described in the study report. By bootstrapping with repeated draws from the frequentist sampling distribution of the imputation model used by Kessler et al., and by varying two pseudorandom number generator seeds that fed their analysis, we account for several purely statistical components of the uncertainty inherent in their imputation procedure. We also discuss other sources of uncertainty in this procedure that were not accessible to a formal reanalysis.

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol-climate model intercomparison studies

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, K.; Wan, H.; Liu, X.; Ghan, S. J.; Kooperman, G. J.; Ma, P.-L.; Rasch, P. J.; Neubauer, D.; Lohmann, U.

2014-08-01

Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5), due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but not temperature is a

Technical Note: On the use of nudging for aerosol–climate model intercomparison studies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Zhang

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Nudging as an assimilation technique has seen increased use in recent years in the development and evaluation of climate models. Constraining the simulated wind and temperature fields using global weather reanalysis facilitates more straightforward comparison between simulation and observation, and reduces uncertainties associated with natural variabilities of the large-scale circulation. On the other hand, the forcing introduced by nudging can be strong enough to change the basic characteristics of the model climate. In the paper we show that for the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5, due to the systematic temperature bias in the standard model and the sensitivity of simulated ice formation to anthropogenic aerosol concentration, nudging towards reanalysis results in substantial reductions in the ice cloud amount and the impact of anthropogenic aerosols on long-wave cloud forcing. In order to reduce discrepancies between the nudged and unconstrained simulations, and meanwhile take the advantages of nudging, two alternative experimentation methods are evaluated. The first one constrains only the horizontal winds. The second method nudges both winds and temperature, but replaces the long-term climatology of the reanalysis by that of the model. Results show that both methods lead to substantially improved agreement with the free-running model in terms of the top-of-atmosphere radiation budget and cloud ice amount. The wind-only nudging is more convenient to apply, and provides higher correlations of the wind fields, geopotential height and specific humidity between simulation and reanalysis. Results from both CAM5 and a second aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2 also indicate that compared to the wind-and-temperature nudging, constraining only winds leads to better agreement with the free-running model in terms of the estimated shortwave cloud forcing and the simulated convective activities. This suggests nudging the horizontal winds but

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Science.gov (United States)

Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Coleman, Blair N.; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

2015-01-01

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health

Assessment of upper tropospheric and stratospheric water vapor and ozone in reanalyses as part of S-RIP

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Sean M.; Hegglin, Michaela I.; Fujiwara, Masatomo; Dragani, Rossana; Harada, Yayoi; Kobayashi, Chiaki; Long, Craig; Manney, Gloria L.; Nash, Eric R.; Potter, Gerald L.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Wang, Tao; Wargan, Krzysztof; Wright, Jonathon S.

2017-10-01

Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields.The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses.In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that

Toward Reanalysis of the Tight-Pitch HCLWR-PROTEUS Phase II Experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Perret, Grégory; Vlassopoulos, Efstathios; Hursin, Mathieu; Pautz, Andreas

2016-03-01

The HCLWR-Proteus Phase II experiments were conducted from 1985 to 1990 in the zero-power reactor Proteus at PSI in Switzerland. The experimental program was dedicated to the physics of high conversion light water reactors and in particular to the measurement of reactor parameters such as reaction rate traverses, spectral indices, absorber reactivity worths and void coefficients. The HCLWR experiments are especially interesting because they generated knowledge in the epithermal range of the neutron flux spectrum, for which little integral experimental data is available. In an effort to assess the interest of this experimental data to validate modern nuclear data and improve their uncertainties, a preliminary re-analysis of selected configurations was conducted with Monte-Carlo codes (MCNP6/SERPENT2) and modern nuclear data libraries (ENDF/B-VII.0, JEFF-3.1.1 and JENDL-4.0). The spectral ndices, flux spectra and sensitivity coefficients on k∞ were calculated using cell models representative of the tight-pitch measurement configurations containing 11% PuO2-UO2 fuel rods in different moderation conditions (air, water and dowtherm). Spectral index predictions using the three nuclear data libraries agreed within two standard deviations with the measured values. The only exception is the Pu-242-capture-to-Pu-239-fission ratio, which was overestimated with all libraries by more than four standard deviations, i.e. 13%, in the non-moderated configuration. In this configuration, Pu-242 captures are few since the flux spectrum in the Pu-242 capture resonance region (between 1eV and 1keV) is small making this spectral index hard to measure. Sensitivity coefficient predictions with both MCNP6 and SERPENT2 were in good agreement.

Model based process-product design and analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gani, Rafiqul

This paper gives a perspective on modelling and the important role it has within product-process design and analysis. Different modelling issues related to development and application of systematic model-based solution approaches for product-process design is discussed and the need for a hybrid...... model-based framework is highlighted. This framework should be able to manage knowledge-data, models, and associated methods and tools integrated with design work-flows and data-flows for specific product-process design problems. In particular, the framework needs to manage models of different types......, forms and complexity, together with their associated parameters. An example of a model-based system for design of chemicals based formulated products is also given....

A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bean, John P.

A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

Reanalysis of Korean War Anthropological Records to Support the Resolution of Cold Cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Emily K

2017-09-01

Re-investigation of previously unidentified remains from the Korean War has yielded 55 new identifications, each with corresponding records of prior anthropological analyses. This study compares biological assessments for age at death, stature, and ancestry across (i) anthropological analyses from the 1950s, (ii) recent anthropological analyses of those same sets of remains, and (iii) the reported antemortem biological information for the identified individual. A comparison of long bone measurements from both the 1950s and during reanalysis is also presented. These comparisons demonstrate commonalities and continuing patterns of errors that are useful in refining both research on Korean War cold case records and forensic anthropological analyses performed using methods developed from the 1950s identifications. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

GEOS Atmospheric Model: Challenges at Exascale

Science.gov (United States)

Putman, William M.; Suarez, Max J.

2017-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) is used to simulate the multi-scale variability of the Earth's weather and climate, and is used primarily to assimilate conventional and satellite-based observations for weather forecasting and reanalysis. In addition, assimilations coupled to an ocean model are used for longer-term forecasting (e.g., El Nino) on seasonal to interannual times-scales. The GMAO's research activities, including system development, focus on numerous time and space scales, as detailed on the GMAO website, where they are tabbed under five major themes: Weather Analysis and Prediction; Seasonal-Decadal Analysis and Prediction; Reanalysis; Global Mesoscale Modeling, and Observing System Science. A brief description of the GEOS systems can also be found at the GMAO website. GEOS executes as a collection of earth system components connected through the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF). The ESMF layer is supplemented with the MAPL (Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction Layer) software toolkit developed at the GMAO, which facilitates the organization of the computational components into a hierarchical architecture. GEOS systems run in parallel using a horizontal decomposition of the Earth's sphere into processing elements (PEs). Communication between PEs is primarily through a message passing framework, using the message passing interface (MPI), and through explicit use of node-level shared memory access via the SHMEM (Symmetric Hierarchical Memory access) protocol. Production GEOS weather prediction systems currently run at 12.5-kilometer horizontal resolution with 72 vertical levels decomposed into PEs associated with 5,400 MPI processes. Research GEOS systems run at resolutions as fine as 1.5 kilometers globally using as many as 30,000 MPI processes. Looking forward, these systems can be expected to see a 2 times increase in horizontal resolution every two to three years, as well as

More Questions than Answers: Continued Critical Reanalysis of Fredrickson et al.'s Studies of Genomics and Well-Being.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas J L Brown

Full Text Available We critically re-examine Fredrickson et al.'s renewed claims concerning the differential relationship between hedonic and eudaimonic forms of well-being and gene expression, namely that people who experience a preponderance of eudaimonic well-being have gene expression profiles that are associated with more favorable health outcomes. By means of an extensive reanalysis of their data, we identify several discrepancies between what these authors claimed and what their data support; we further show that their different analysis models produce mutually contradictory results. We then show how Fredrickson et al.'s most recent article on this topic not only fails to adequately address our previously published concerns about their earlier related work, but also introduces significant further problems, including inconsistency in their hypotheses. Additionally, we demonstrate that regardless of which statistical model is used to analyze their data, Fredrickson et al.'s method can be highly sensitive to the inclusion (or exclusion of data from a single subject. We reiterate our previous conclusions, namely that there is no evidence that Fredrickson et al. have established a reliable empirical distinction between their two delineated forms of well-being, nor that eudaimonic well-being provides any overall health benefits over hedonic well-being.

Modelling Retail Floorspace Productivity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

A.R. Thurik (Roy); P. Kooiman

1986-01-01

textabstractThis research note presents a "switching regime" model to investigate the impact of environmental factors on floorspace productivity of individual retail stores. The model includes independent supply and demand functions, which are incorporated within a sales maximizing framework. Unlike

Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen

2017-07-01

The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from climate.copernicus.eu" target="_blank">ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.

A Conceptual Model for Production Leveling (Heijunka) Implementation in Batch Production Systems

OpenAIRE

De Araujo , Luciano Fonseca; De Queiroz , Abelardo Alves

2009-01-01

International audience; This paper explains an implementation model for a new method for Production Leveling designed for batch production system. The main structure of this model is grounded on three constructs: traditional framework for Operations Planning, Lean Manufacturing concepts for Production Leveling and case study guidelines. By combining the first and second construct, a framework for Production Leveling has been developed for batch production systems. Then, case study guidelines ...

Dynamical 3-Space Gravity Theory: Effects on Polytropic Solar Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

May R. D.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Numerous experiments and observations have confirmed the existence of a dynamical 3-space, detectable directly by light-speed anisotropy experiments, and indirectly by means of novel gravitational effects, such as bore hole g anomalies, predictable black hole masses, flat spiral-galaxy rotation curves, and the expansion of the universe, all without dark matter and dark energy. The dynamics for this 3-space follows from a unique generalisation of Newtonian gravity, once that is cast into a velocity formalism. This new theory of gravity is applied to the solar model of the sun to compute new density, pressure and temperature profiles, using polytrope modelling of the equation of state for the matter. These results should be applied to a re-analysis of solar neutrino production, and to stellar evolution in general.

Model for fission-product calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.B.

1984-01-01

Many fission-product cross sections remain unmeasurable thus considerable reliance must be placed upon calculational interpolation and extrapolation from the few available measured cross sections. The vehicle, particularly for the lighter fission products, is the conventional optical-statistical model. The applied goals generally are: capture cross sections to 7 to 10% accuracies and inelastic-scattering cross sections to 25 to 50%. Comparisons of recent evaluations and experimental results indicate that these goals too often are far from being met, particularly in the area of inelastic scattering, and some of the evaluated fission-product cross sections are simply physically unreasonable. It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the models employed in many of the evaluations are inappropriate and/or inappropriately used. In order to alleviate the above unfortunate situations, a regional optical-statistical (OM) model was sought with the goal of quantitative prediction of the cross sections of the lighter-mass (Z = 30-51) fission products. The first step toward that goal was the establishment of a reliable experimental data base consisting of energy-averaged neutron total and differential-scattering cross sections. The second step was the deduction of a regional model from the experimental data. It was assumed that a spherical OM is appropriate: a reasonable and practical assumption. The resulting OM then was verified against the measured data base. Finally, the physical character of the regional model is examined

An Optimization Model for Product Placement on Product Listing Pages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-Kwang Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The design of product listing pages is a key component of Website design because it has significant influence on the sales volume on a Website. This study focuses on product placement in designing product listing pages. Product placement concerns how venders of online stores place their products over the product listing pages for maximization of profit. This problem is very similar to the offline shelf management problem. Since product information sources on a Web page are typically communicated through the text and image, visual stimuli such as color, shape, size, and spatial arrangement often have an effect on the visual attention of online shoppers and, in turn, influence their eventual purchase decisions. In view of the above, this study synthesizes the visual attention literature and theory of shelf-space allocation to develop a mathematical programming model with genetic algorithms for finding optimal solutions to the focused issue. The validity of the model is illustrated with example problems.

Multi products single machine economic production quantity model with multiple batch size

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ata Allah Taleizadeh

2011-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a multi products single machine economic order quantity model with discrete delivery is developed. A unique cycle length is considered for all produced items with an assumption that all products are manufactured on a single machine with a limited capacity. The proposed model considers different items such as production, setup, holding, and transportation costs. The resulted model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. Harmony search algorithm, extended cutting plane and particle swarm optimization methods are used to solve the proposed model. Two numerical examples are used to analyze and to evaluate the performance of the proposed model.

Downscaling an Eddy-Resolving Global Model for the Continental Shelf off South Eastern Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Roughan, M.; Baird, M.; MacDonald, H.; Oke, P.

2008-12-01

The Australian Bluelink collaboration between CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and the Royal Australian Navy has made available to the research community the output of BODAS (Bluelink ocean data assimilation system), an ensemble optimal interpolation reanalysis system with ~10 km resolution around Australia. Within the Bluelink project, BODAS fields are assimilated into a dynamic ocean model of the same resolution to produce BRAN (BlueLink ReANalysis, a hindcast of water properties around Australia from 1992 to 2004). In this study, BODAS hydrographic fields are assimilated into a ~ 3 km resolution Princeton Ocean Model (POM) configuration of the coastal ocean off SE Australia. Experiments were undertaken to establish the optimal strength and duration of the assimilation of BODAS fields into the 3 km resolution POM configuration for the purpose of producing hindcasts of ocean state. It is shown that the resultant downscaling of Bluelink products is better able to reproduce coastal features, particularly velocities and hydrography over the continental shelf off south eastern Australia. The BODAS-POM modelling system is used to provide a high-resolution simulation of the East Australian Current over the period 1992 to 2004. One of the applications that we will present is an investigation of the seasonal and inter-annual variability in the dispersion of passive particles in the East Australian Current. The practical outcome is an estimate of the connectivity of estuaries along the coast of southeast Australia, which is relevant for the dispersion of marine pests.

A regional model simulation of the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Yangtze-Huai River Valley. Part 2: Model bias

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gong, W.; Wang, W.C.

2000-01-01

This is the second part of a study investigating the 1991 severe precipitation event over the Uangtze-Huai River valley (YHRV) in China using both observations and regional model simulations. While Part 1 reported on the Mei-yu front and its association with large-scale circulation, this study documents the biases associated with the treatment of the lateral boundary in the regional model. Two aspects of the biases were studied: the driving field, which provides large-scale boundary forcing, and the coupling scheme, which specified how the forcing is adopted by the model. The former bias is defined as model uncertainty because it is not related to the model itself, while the latter bias (as well as those biases attributed to other sources) is referred to as model error. These two aspects were examined by analyzing the regional model simulations of the 1991 summer severe precipitation event over YHRV using different driving fields (ECMWF-TOGA objective analysis, ECMWF reanalysis, and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis) and coupling scheme (distribution function of the nudging coefficient and width of the buffer zone). Spectral analysis was also used to study the frequency distribution of the bias.

Constraining the dynamics of the water budget at high spatial resolution in the world's water towers using models and remote sensing data; Snake River Basin, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, K. A.; Masarik, M. T.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Mountainous, snow-dominated basins are often referred to as the water towers of the world because they store precipitation in seasonal snowpacks, which gradually melt and provide water supplies to downstream communities. Yet significant uncertainties remain in terms of quantifying the stores and fluxes of water in these regions as well as the associated energy exchanges. Constraining these stores and fluxes is crucial for advancing process understanding and managing these water resources in a changing climate. Remote sensing data are particularly important to these efforts due to the remoteness of these landscapes and high spatial variability in water budget components. We have developed a high resolution regional climate dataset extending from 1986 to the present for the Snake River Basin in the northwestern USA. The Snake River Basin is the largest tributary of the Columbia River by volume and a critically important basin for regional economies and communities. The core of the dataset was developed using a regional climate model, forced by reanalysis data. Specifically the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to dynamically downscale the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the region at 3 km horizontal resolution for the period of interest. A suite of satellite remote sensing products provide independent, albeit uncertain, constraint on a number of components of the water and energy budgets for the region across a range of spatial and temporal scales. For example, GRACE data are used to constrain basinwide terrestrial water storage and MODIS products are used to constrain the spatial and temporal evolution of evapotranspiration and snow cover. The joint use of both models and remote sensing products allows for both better understanding of water cycle dynamics and associated hydrometeorologic processes, and identification of limitations in both the remote sensing products and regional climate simulations.

Applying linear programming model to aggregate production planning of coated peanut products

Science.gov (United States)

Rohmah, W. G.; Purwaningsih, I.; Santoso, EF S. M.

2018-03-01

The aim of this study was to set the overall production level for each grade of coated peanut product to meet market demands with a minimum production cost. The linear programming model was applied in this study. The proposed model was used to minimize the total production cost based on the limited demand of coated peanuts. The demand values applied to the method was previously forecasted using time series method and production capacity aimed to plan the aggregate production for the next 6 month period. The results indicated that the production planning using the proposed model has resulted a better fitted pattern to the customer demands compared to that of the company policy. The production capacity of product family A, B, and C was relatively stable for the first 3 months of the planning periods, then began to fluctuate over the next 3 months. While, the production capacity of product family D and E was fluctuated over the 6-month planning periods, with the values in the range of 10,864 - 32,580 kg and 255 – 5,069 kg, respectively. The total production cost for all products was 27.06% lower than the production cost calculated using the company’s policy-based method.

Lumped hydrological models is an Occam' razor for runoff modeling in large Russian Arctic basins

OpenAIRE

Ayzel Georgy

2018-01-01

This study is aimed to investigate the possibility of three lumped hydrological models to predict daily runoff of large-scale Arctic basins for the modern period (1979-2014) in the case of substantial data scarcity. All models were driven only by meteorological forcing reanalysis dataset without any additional information about landscape, soil or vegetation cover properties of studied basins. We found limitations of model parameters calibration in ungauged basins using global optimization alg...

Investigating smoke's influence on primary production throughout the Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Flanner, M. G.; Mahowald, N. M.; Zender, C. S.; Randerson, J. T.; Tosca, M. G.

2007-12-01

Smoke from annual burning in the Amazon causes large reduction in surface insolation and increases the diffuse fraction of photosynthetically-active radiation (PAR). These effects have competing influence on gross primary production (GPP). Recent studies indicate that the sign of net influence depends on aerosol optical depth, but the magnitude of smoke's effect on continental-scale carbon cycling is very poorly constrained and may constitute an important term of fire's net impact on carbon storage. To investigate widespread effects of Amazon smoke on surface radiation properties, we apply a version of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model with prognostic aerosol transport, driven with re-analysis winds. Carbon aerosol emissions are derived from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We use AERONET observations to identify model biases in aerosol optical depth, single-scatter albedo, and surface radiative forcing, and prescribe new aerosol optical properties based on field observations to improve model agreement with AERONET data. Finally, we quantify a potential range of smoke-induced change in large-scale GPP based on: 1) ground measurements of GPP in the Amazon as a function of aerosol optical depth and diffuse fraction of PAR, and 2) empirical functions of ecosystem-scale photosynthesis rates currently employed in models such as the Community Land Model (CLM).

Three-dimensional decomposition models for carbon productivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meng, Ming; Niu, Dongxiao

2012-01-01

This paper presents decomposition models for the change in carbon productivity, which is considered a key indicator that reflects the contributions to the control of greenhouse gases. Carbon productivity differential was used to indicate the beginning of decomposition. After integrating the differential equation and designing the Log Mean Divisia Index equations, a three-dimensional absolute decomposition model for carbon productivity was derived. Using this model, the absolute change of carbon productivity was decomposed into a summation of the absolute quantitative influences of each industrial sector, for each influence factor (technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment) in each year. Furthermore, the relative decomposition model was built using a similar process. Finally, these models were applied to demonstrate the decomposition process in China. The decomposition results reveal several important conclusions: (a) technological innovation plays a far more important role than industrial structure adjustment; (b) industry and export trade exhibit great influence; (c) assigning the responsibility for CO 2 emission control to local governments, optimizing the structure of exports, and eliminating backward industrial capacity are highly essential to further increase China's carbon productivity. -- Highlights: ► Using the change of carbon productivity to measure a country's contribution. ► Absolute and relative decomposition models for carbon productivity are built. ► The change is decomposed to the quantitative influence of three-dimension. ► Decomposition results can be used for improving a country's carbon productivity.

Efficient forced vibration reanalysis method for rotating electric machines

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Akira; Suzuki, Hiromitsu; Kuroishi, Masakatsu; Nakai, Hideo

2015-01-01

Rotating electric machines are subject to forced vibration by magnetic force excitation with wide-band frequency spectrum that are dependent on the operating conditions. Therefore, when designing the electric machines, it is inevitable to compute the vibration response of the machines at various operating conditions efficiently and accurately. This paper presents an efficient frequency-domain vibration analysis method for the electric machines. The method enables the efficient re-analysis of the vibration response of electric machines at various operating conditions without the necessity to re-compute the harmonic response by finite element analyses. Theoretical background of the proposed method is provided, which is based on the modal reduction of the magnetic force excitation by a set of amplitude-modulated standing-waves. The method is applied to the forced response vibration of the interior permanent magnet motor at a fixed operating condition. The results computed by the proposed method agree very well with those computed by the conventional harmonic response analysis by the FEA. The proposed method is then applied to the spin-up test condition to demonstrate its applicability to various operating conditions. It is observed that the proposed method can successfully be applied to the spin-up test conditions, and the measured dominant frequency peaks in the frequency response can be well captured by the proposed approach.

Assessment of Wind Datasets for Estimating Offshore Wind Energy along the Central California Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y. H.; Walter, R. K.; Ruttenberg, B.; White, C.

2017-12-01

Offshore renewable energy along the central California coastline has gained significant interest in recent years. We present a comprehensive analysis of near-surface wind datasets available in this region to facilitate future estimates of wind power generation potential. The analyses are based on local NDBC buoys, satellite-based measurements (QuickSCAT and CCMP V2.0), reanalysis products (NARR and MERRA), and a regional climate model (WRF). There are substantial differences in the diurnal signal during different months among the various products (i.e., satellite-based, reanalysis, and modeled) relative to the local buoys. Moreover, the datasets tended to underestimate wind speed under light wind conditions and overestimate under strong wind conditions. In addition to point-to-point comparisons against local buoys, the spatial variations of bias and error in both the reanalysis products and WRF model data in this region were compared against satellite-based measurements. NARR's bias and root-mean-square-error were generally small in the study domain and decreased with distance from coastlines. Although its smaller spatial resolution is likely to be insufficient to reveal local effects, the small bias and error in near-surface winds, as well as the availability of wind data at the proposed turbine hub heights, suggests that NARR is an ideal candidate for use in offshore wind energy production estimates along the central California coast. The framework utilized here could be applied in other site-specific regions where offshore renewable energy is being considered.

Mapping Global Ocean Surface Albedo from Satellite Observations: Models, Algorithms, and Datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Li, X.; Fan, X.; Yan, H.; Li, A.; Wang, M.; Qu, Y.

2018-04-01

Ocean surface albedo (OSA) is one of the important parameters in surface radiation budget (SRB). It is usually considered as a controlling factor of the heat exchange among the atmosphere and ocean. The temporal and spatial dynamics of OSA determine the energy absorption of upper level ocean water, and have influences on the oceanic currents, atmospheric circulations, and transportation of material and energy of hydrosphere. Therefore, various parameterizations and models have been developed for describing the dynamics of OSA. However, it has been demonstrated that the currently available OSA datasets cannot full fill the requirement of global climate change studies. In this study, we present a literature review on mapping global OSA from satellite observations. The models (parameterizations, the coupled ocean-atmosphere radiative transfer (COART), and the three component ocean water albedo (TCOWA)), algorithms (the estimation method based on reanalysis data, and the direct-estimation algorithm), and datasets (the cloud, albedo and radiation (CLARA) surface albedo product, dataset derived by the TCOWA model, and the global land surface satellite (GLASS) phase-2 surface broadband albedo product) of OSA have been discussed, separately.

Re-analysis of public genetic data reveals a rare X-chromosomal variant associated with type 2 diabetes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bonàs-Guarch, Sílvia; Guindo-Martínez, Marta; Miguel-Escalada, Irene

2018-01-01

The reanalysis of existing GWAS data represents a powerful and cost-effective opportunity to gain insights into the genetics of complex diseases. By reanalyzing publicly available type 2 diabetes (T2D) genome-wide association studies (GWAS) data for 70,127 subjects, we identify seven novel...... available data using novel genetic resources and analytical approaches....... associated with the expression of Angiotensin II Receptor type 2 gene (AGTR2), a modulator of insulin sensitivity, and exhibits allelic specific activity in muscle cells. Beyond providing insights into the genetics and pathophysiology of T2D, these results also underscore the value of reanalyzing publicly...

Description, Modelling and Design of Production Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jacobsen, Peter; Rudolph, Carsten

1997-01-01

Design of production systems are rarely an activity in which decision makers in most production companies have much experience. In future, this activity is to be more recurrent due to more and more frequent changes in the production task. Consequently, the decision makers are in need of better...... management tools and methods for description and modelling of production systems supporting the decisions. In this article a structural framework to describe and model production systems will be introduced, and it is shown how the production system of a minor Danish manufacturer of electromechanical...

Modelling Configuration Knowledge in Heterogeneous Product Families

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Queva, Matthieu Stéphane Benoit; Männistö, Tomi; Ricci, Laurent

2011-01-01

Product configuration systems play an important role in the development of Mass Customisation. The configuration of complex product families may nowadays involve multiple design disciplines, e.g. hardware, software and services. In this paper, we present a conceptual approach for modelling...... the variability in such heterogeneous product families. Our approach is based on a framework that aims to cater for the different stakeholders involved in the modelling and management of the product family. The modelling approach is centred around the concepts of views, types and constraints and is illustrated...... by a motivation example. Furthermore, as a proof of concept, a prototype has been implemented for configuring a non-trivial heterogeneous product family....

Meteorological Modeling Using the WRF-ARW Model for Grand Bay Intensive Studies of Atmospheric Mercury

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fong Ngan

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Measurements at the Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve support a range of research activities aimed at improving the understanding of the atmospheric fate and transport of mercury. Routine monitoring was enhanced by two intensive measurement periods conducted at the site in summer 2010 and spring 2011. Detailed meteorological data are required to properly represent the weather conditions, to determine the transport and dispersion of plumes and to understand the wet and dry deposition of mercury. To describe the mesoscale features that might influence future plume calculations for mercury episodes during the Grand Bay Intensive campaigns, fine-resolution meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model were conducted with various initialization and nudging configurations. The WRF simulations with nudging generated reasonable results in comparison with conventional observations in the region and measurements obtained at the Grand Bay site, including surface and sounding data. The grid nudging, together with observational nudging, had a positive effect on wind prediction. However, the nudging of mass fields (temperature and moisture led to overestimates of precipitation, which may introduce significant inaccuracies if the data were to be used for subsequent atmospheric mercury modeling. The regional flow prediction was also influenced by the reanalysis data used to initialize the WRF simulations. Even with observational nudging, the summer case simulation results in the fine resolution domain inherited features of the reanalysis data, resulting in different regional wind patterns. By contrast, the spring intensive period showed less influence from the reanalysis data.

A comparison of production system life cycle models

Science.gov (United States)

Attri, Rajesh; Grover, Sandeep

2012-09-01

Companies today need to keep up with the rapidly changing market conditions to stay competitive. The main issues in this paper are related to a company's market and its competitors. The prediction of market behavior is helpful for a manufacturing enterprise to build efficient production systems. However, these predictions are usually not reliable. A production system is required to adapt to changing markets, but such requirement entails higher cost. Hence, analyzing different life cycle models of the production system is necessary. In this paper, different life cycle models of the production system are compared to evaluate the distinctive features and the limitations of each model. Furthermore, the difference between product life cycle and production life cycle is summarized, and the effect of product life cycle on production life cycle is explained. Finally, a production system life cycle model, along with key activities to be performed in each stage, is proposed specifically for the manufacturing sector.

The CAFE model: A net production model for global ocean phytoplankton

Science.gov (United States)

Silsbe, Greg M.; Behrenfeld, Michael J.; Halsey, Kimberly H.; Milligan, Allen J.; Westberry, Toby K.

2016-12-01

The Carbon, Absorption, and Fluorescence Euphotic-resolving (CAFE) net primary production model is an adaptable framework for advancing global ocean productivity assessments by exploiting state-of-the-art satellite ocean color analyses and addressing key physiological and ecological attributes of phytoplankton. Here we present the first implementation of the CAFE model that incorporates inherent optical properties derived from ocean color measurements into a mechanistic and accurate model of phytoplankton growth rates (μ) and net phytoplankton production (NPP). The CAFE model calculates NPP as the product of energy absorption (QPAR), and the efficiency (ϕμ) by which absorbed energy is converted into carbon biomass (CPhyto), while μ is calculated as NPP normalized to CPhyto. The CAFE model performance is evaluated alongside 21 other NPP models against a spatially robust and globally representative set of direct NPP measurements. This analysis demonstrates that the CAFE model explains the greatest amount of variance and has the lowest model bias relative to other NPP models analyzed with this data set. Global oceanic NPP from the CAFE model (52 Pg C m-2 yr-1) and mean division rates (0.34 day-1) are derived from climatological satellite data (2002-2014). This manuscript discusses and validates individual CAFE model parameters (e.g., QPAR and ϕμ), provides detailed sensitivity analyses, and compares the CAFE model results and parameterization to other widely cited models.

A climatology based on reanalysis of baroclinic developmental regions in the extratropical northern hemisphere.

Science.gov (United States)

de la Torre, Laura; Nieto, Raquel; Noguerol, Marta; Añel, Juan Antonio; Gimeno, Luis

2008-12-01

Regions of the occurrence of different phenomena related to the development of baroclinic disturbances are reviewed for the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data. The occurrence of height lows appears to be related to the orography near the earth's surface and with surface- and upper-air cyclogenesis in the upper troposphere. Over the cyclone tracks, the surface maxima appear to be trapped by land masses, whereas over the Mediterranean Sea they are located on the lee side of mountain ranges. The forcing terms of the geopotential tendency and omega equations mark the genesis (and, by the vorticity advection terms, the path) of the extratropical cyclones on the storm track. They occur mostly over the western coast of the oceans, beginning and having maxima on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains and the Tibetan Plateau. Their associated fronts form from the cold air coming from the continents and converging with the warm air over the Gulf and Kuroshio currents. Evident trends are found only for the Atlantic cyclone track (positive) and the Pacific cyclone track (negative) until the last decade when the tendency reverses. Over the southern Pacific, the number of fronts is lower during 1978-1997, coinciding with a period of strong El Niño Southern Oscillation episodes. This information is important for validating numerical models in order to predict changes associated with climate change and to study the behavior of extratropical cyclones and fronts.

Evaluation of WRF Performance Driven by GISS-E2-R Global Model for the 2014 Rainy Season in Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Almanza, V.; Zavala, M. A.; Lei, W.; Shindell, D. T.; Molina, L. T.

2017-12-01

Precipitation and cloud fields as well as the spatial distribution of emissions are important during the estimation of the radiative effects of atmospheric pollutants in future climate applications. In particular, landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms greatly affect the amount and distribution of annual precipitation, and thus have a direct impact on the wet deposition of pollutants and aerosol-cloud interactions. Therefore, long-term simulations in chemistry mode driven by the outputs of a global model need to consider the influence of these phenomena on the radiative effects, particularly for countries such as Mexico that have high number of landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. In this work the NASA earth system GISS-E2-R global model is downscaled with the WRF model over a domain encompassing Mexico. We use the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and Era-Interim reanalysis, along with available surface observations and data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) products to evaluate the contribution of spectral nudging, domain size and resolution in resolving the precipitation and cloud fraction fields for the rainy season in 2014. We focus on this year since 10 tropical cyclones made landfall in central Mexico. The results of the evaluation are useful to assess the performance of the model in representing the present conditions of precipitation and cloud fraction in Mexico. In addition, it provides guidelines for conducting the operational runs in chemistry mode for the future years.

Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Guangfei; Li, Xianneng; Wang, Jianliang; Lian, Lian; Ma, Tieju

2015-01-01

Numerous models have been proposed to forecast the future trends of oil production and almost all of them are based on some predefined assumptions with various uncertainties. In this study, we propose a novel data-driven approach that uses symbolic regression to model oil production. We validate our approach on both synthetic and real data, and the results prove that symbolic regression could effectively identify the true models beneath the oil production data and also make reliable predictions. Symbolic regression indicates that world oil production will peak in 2021, which broadly agrees with other techniques used by researchers. Our results also show that the rate of decline after the peak is almost half the rate of increase before the peak, and it takes nearly 12 years to drop 4% from the peak. These predictions are more optimistic than those in several other reports, and the smoother decline will provide the world, especially the developing countries, with more time to orchestrate mitigation plans. -- Highlights: •A data-driven approach has been shown to be effective at modeling the oil production. •The Hubbert model could be discovered automatically from data. •The peak of world oil production is predicted to appear in 2021. •The decline rate after peak is half of the increase rate before peak. •Oil production projected to decline 4% post-peak

Using long-term ground-based HSRL and geostationary observations in combination with model re-analysis to help disentangle local and long-range transported aerosols in Seoul, South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Phillips, C.; Holz, R.; Eloranta, E. W.; Reid, J. S.; Kim, S. W.; Kuehn, R.; Marais, W.

2017-12-01

The University of Wisconsin High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) has been continuously operating at Seoul National University as part of the Korea-United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ). The instrument was installed in March of 2016 and continues to operate as of August 2017, providing a truly unique data set to monitor aerosol and cloud properties. With its capability to separate the molecular and particulate scattering, the HSRL is able to detect extremely thin aerosol layers with sub-molecular scattering sensitivity. The system deployed in Seoul has depolarization measurements at 532 nm as well as a near IR channel at 1064 nm providing discrimination between dust, smoke, pollution, water clouds, and ice clouds. As will be presented, these capabilities can be used to produce three channel combined RGB images that provide visualization of small changes in the aerosol properties. A primary motivation of KORUS-AQ was to determine the relative effects of transported pollution and local pollution on air quality in Seoul. We hypothesize that HSRL-based image analysis algorithms combined with satellite and model re-analysis has the potential to identify cases when remote sources of aerosols and pollution are advected into the boundary layer with impacts to the surface air quality. To facilitate this research we have developed the capability to combine ten-minute geostationary imagery from Himawari-8, nearby radiosondes, model output, surface PM measurements, and AERONET data over the HSRL site. On a case-by-case basis, it is possible to separate layers of aerosols with different scattering properties using these tools. Additionally, a preliminary year-long aerosol climatology with integrated geo-stationary retrievals and modeling data will be presented. The focus is on investigating correlations between the HSRL aerosol measurements (depolarization, color ratio, extinction, and lidar ratio) with the model output and aerosol sources. This analysis will use recently

Automatic support for product based workflow design : generation of process models from a product data model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vanderfeesten, I.T.P.; Reijers, H.A.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Vogelaar, J.J.C.L.; Meersman, R.; Dillon, T.; Herrero, P.

2010-01-01

Product Based Workflow Design (PBWD) is one of the few scientific methodologies for the (re)design of workflow processes. It is based on an analysis of the product that is produced in the workflow process and derives a process model from the product structure. Until now this derivation has been a

Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szlufarska, Izabela; Morgan, Dane; Allen, Todd

2013-01-01

The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high-temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission products

Classification hierarchies for product data modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pels, H.J.

2006-01-01

Abstraction is an essential element in data modelling that appears mainly in one of the following forms: generalisation, classification or aggregation. In the design of complex products classification hierarchies can be found product families that are viewed as classes of product types, while

Evaluation of the hydrological cycle of MATCH driven by NCEP reanalysis data: comparison with GOME water vapor measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lang

2005-01-01

Full Text Available This study examines two key parameters of the hydrological cycle, water vapor (WV and precipitation rates (PR, as modelled by the chemistry transport model MATCH (Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry driven by National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP reanalysis data (NRA. For model output evaluation we primarily employ WV total column data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME on ERS-2, which is the only instrument capable measuring WV on a global scale and over all surface types with a substantial data record from 1995 to the present. We find that MATCH and NRA WV and PR distributions are closely related, but that significant regional differences in both parameters exist in magnitude and distribution patterns when compared to the observations. We also find that WV residual patterns between model and observations show remarkable similarities to residuals observed in the PR when comparing MATCH and NRA output to observations comprised by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP. We conclude that deficiencies in model parameters shared by MATCH and NRA, like in the surface evaporation rates and regional transport patterns, are likely to lead to the observed differences. Monthly average regional differences between MATCH modelled WV columns and the observations can be as large as 2 cm, based on the analysis of three years. Differences in the global mean WV values are, however, below 0.1 cm. Regional differences in the PR between MATCH and GPCP can be above 0.5 cm per day and MATCH computes on average a higher PR than what has been observed. The lower water vapor content of MATCH is related to shorter model WV residence times by up to 1 day as compared to the observations. We find that MATCH has problems in modelling the WV content in regions of strong upward convection like, for example, along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, where it appears to be generally too dry as compared to the observations. We

[Characteristics of Hospitalized Mentally ill Spanish Migrants in Germany - Results of a Statistical Reanalysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Valdés-Stauber, J; Valdés-Stauber, M A

2015-10-01

To draft a clinical profile of mentally ill first-generation Spanish immigrants in Germany treated in a special setting in their native language and to identify possible correlations between time of onset of a mental disorder and migration and also between degree of utilization and clinical as well as care variables. Statistical reanalysis of individual data (n = 100) of a previously published descriptive study with aggregated data corresponding to 15 variables. Correlations are calculated using chi-square as well as Fisher's exact test. Multivariate regression and logistic models were conducted. In addition to the explained variance of the models (R(2)), analyses of residuals as well as post-hoc power analyses (1-β) were performed. A quarter of the sample (26 %) was mentally ill before migration; most of the patients received treatment very late (about 10 years after onset) and became chronically ill. Half of the sample shows a relevant somatic comorbidity and large average lengths of inpatient stays (54 days). In 16 % of treated cases, repatriation had to be organized. The degree of chronicity correlates with mental illness prior to migration. Severe mood disorders and psychoses occur late after having migrated, addictions and neurotic disorders are equally distributed over time. Migration can not be set in a causal relationship with the development of mental disorders, although there is a positive correlation between affective disorders and the duration of the migration status. Chronicity is related to an outbreak of the disease before migration. The sample is relatively homogeneous (one nationality, first generation), but loses epidemiological representativeness (not related to a catchment area). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. C. Sperna Weiland

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

An economic production model for time dependent demand with rework and multiple production setups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.R. Singh

2014-04-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we present a model for time dependent demand with multiple productions and rework setups. Production is demand dependent and greater than the demand rate. Production facility produces items in m production setups and one rework setup (m, 1 policy. The major reason of reverse logistic and green supply chain is rework, so it reduces the cost of production and other ecological problems. Most of the researchers developed a rework model without deteriorating items. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is shown to describe the model.

Dynamical downscaling of ERA-40 in complex terrain using the WRF regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heikkilae, U. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Sandvik, A. [Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Institute for Marine Research (IMR), Bergen (Norway); Sorteberg, A. [University of Bergen, Geophysical Institute, Bergen (Norway)

2011-10-15

Results from a first-time employment of the WRF regional climate model to climatological simulations in Europe are presented. The ERA-40 reanalysis (resolution 1 ) has been downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 30 and 10 km for the period of 1961-1990. This model setup includes the whole North Atlantic in the 30 km domain and spectral nudging is used to keep the large scales consistent with the driving ERA-40 reanalysis. The model results are compared against an extensive observational network of surface variables in complex terrain in Norway. The comparison shows that the WRF model is able to add significant detail to the representation of precipitation and 2-m temperature of the ERA-40 reanalysis. Especially the geographical distribution, wet day frequency and extreme values of precipitation are highly improved due to the better representation of the orography. Refining the resolution from 30 to 10 km further increases the skill of the model, especially in case of precipitation. Our results indicate that the use of 10-km resolution is advantageous for producing regional future climate projections. Use of a large domain and spectral nudging seems to be useful in reproducing the extreme precipitation events due to the better resolved synoptic scale features over the North Atlantic, and also helps to reduce the large regional temperature biases over Norway. This study presents a high-resolution, high-quality climatological data set useful for reference climate impact studies. (orig.)

A production model and maintenance planning model for the process industry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ashayeri, J.; Teelen, A.; Selen, W.J.

1995-01-01

In this paper a model is developed to simultaneously plan preventive maintenance and production in a process industry environment, where maintenance planning is extremely important. The model schedules production jobs and preventive maintenance jobs, while minimizing costs associated with

Research on Digital Product Modeling Key Technologies of Digital Manufacturing

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

DING Guoping; ZHOU Zude; HU Yefa; ZHAO Liang

2006-01-01

With the globalization and diversification of the market and the rapid development of Information Technology (IT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the digital revolution of manufacturing is coming. One of the key technologies in digital manufacturing is product digital modeling. This paper firstly analyzes the information and features of the product digital model during each stage in the product whole lifecycle, then researches on the three critical technologies of digital modeling in digital manufacturing-product modeling, standard for the exchange of product model data and digital product data management. And the potential signification of the product digital model during the process of digital manufacturing is concluded-product digital model integrates primary features of each stage during the product whole lifecycle based on graphic features, applies STEP as data exchange mechanism, and establishes PDM system to manage the large amount, complicated and dynamic product data to implement the product digital model data exchange, sharing and integration.

Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

Science.gov (United States)

Lipkin, Ilya

Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak

Product Portfolio Management Best Practices For New Product Development: A Review Of Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doorasamy Mishelle

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The survival of any industrial organization depends on whether producing goods or services hinge on how innovative they have become in managing their product portfolio to craft new products that changes with the ever-changing tastes and needs of their customers. This study delves in to the models and theories that drive product portfolio management practices in a way that they support the successes of new product development. Our review is based on selected studies at the frontier of product management, summarized, and compared based on authors experiences, subsisting models, and theories with the results purely based on qualitative rather than quantitative approaches. The essence is to explore possible new theory or model in this field of research.

Modeling of nitrous oxide production by autotrophic ammonia-oxidizing bacteria with multiple production pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Ni, Bing-Jie; Peng, Lai; Law, Yingyu; Guo, Jianhua; Yuan, Zhiguo

2014-04-01

Autotrophic ammonia oxidizing bacteria (AOB) have been recognized as a major contributor to N2O production in wastewater treatment systems. However, so far N2O models have been proposed based on a single N2O production pathway by AOB, and there is still a lack of effective approach for the integration of these models. In this work, an integrated mathematical model that considers multiple production pathways is developed to describe N2O production by AOB. The pathways considered include the nitrifier denitrification pathway (N2O as the final product of AOB denitrification with NO2(-) as the terminal electron acceptor) and the hydroxylamine (NH2OH) pathway (N2O as a byproduct of incomplete oxidation of NH2OH to NO2(-)). In this model, the oxidation and reduction processes are modeled separately, with intracellular electron carriers introduced to link the two types of processes. The model is calibrated and validated using experimental data obtained with two independent nitrifying cultures. The model satisfactorily describes the N2O data from both systems. The model also predicts shifts of the dominating pathway at various dissolved oxygen (DO) and nitrite levels, consistent with previous hypotheses. This unified model is expected to enhance our ability to predict N2O production by AOB in wastewater treatment systems under varying operational conditions.

A grand model for chemical product design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fung, Ka Y.; Ng, Ka M.; Zhang, Lei

2016-01-01

, a pricing model, an economic model as well as factors such as company strategy, government policies and regulations. This article introduces the model and highlights selected aspects of the model with two case studies. One is a die attach adhesive that illustrates how pricing affects profitability, and how...... product composition changes with market conditions. Another is a hand lotion that illustrates how product quality affects the profit.(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

Development of an inpatient operational pharmacy productivity model.

Science.gov (United States)

Naseman, Ryan W; Lopez, Ben R; Forrey, Ryan A; Weber, Robert J; Kipp, Kris M

2015-02-01

An innovative model for measuring the operational productivity of medication order management in inpatient settings is described. Order verification within a computerized prescriber order-entry system was chosen as the pharmacy workload driver. To account for inherent variability in the tasks involved in processing different types of orders, pharmaceutical products were grouped by class, and each class was assigned a time standard, or "medication complexity weight" reflecting the intensity of pharmacist and technician activities (verification of drug indication, verification of appropriate dosing, adverse-event prevention and monitoring, medication preparation, product checking, product delivery, returns processing, nurse/provider education, and problem-order resolution). The resulting "weighted verifications" (WV) model allows productivity monitoring by job function (pharmacist versus technician) to guide hiring and staffing decisions. A 9-month historical sample of verified medication orders was analyzed using the WV model, and the calculations were compared with values derived from two established models—one based on the Case Mix Index (CMI) and the other based on the proprietary Pharmacy Intensity Score (PIS). Evaluation of Pearson correlation coefficients indicated that values calculated using the WV model were highly correlated with those derived from the CMI-and PIS-based models (r = 0.845 and 0.886, respectively). Relative to the comparator models, the WV model offered the advantage of less period-to-period variability. The WV model yielded productivity data that correlated closely with values calculated using two validated workload management models. The model may be used as an alternative measure of pharmacy operational productivity. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Extensive validation of CM SAF surface radiation products over Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Urraca, Ruben; Gracia-Amillo, Ana M; Koubli, Elena; Huld, Thomas; Trentmann, Jörg; Riihelä, Aku; Lindfors, Anders V; Palmer, Diane; Gottschalg, Ralph; Antonanzas-Torres, Fernando

2017-09-15

This work presents a validation of three satellite-based radiation products over an extensive network of 313 pyranometers across Europe, from 2005 to 2015. The products used have been developed by the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) and are one geostationary climate dataset (SARAH-JRC), one polar-orbiting climate dataset (CLARA-A2) and one geostationary operational product. Further, the ERA-Interim reanalysis is also included in the comparison. The main objective is to determine the quality level of the daily means of CM SAF datasets, identifying their limitations, as well as analyzing the different factors that can interfere in the adequate validation of the products. The quality of the pyranometer was the most critical source of uncertainty identified. In this respect, the use of records from Second Class pyranometers and silicon-based photodiodes increased the absolute error and the bias, as well as the dispersion of both metrics, preventing an adequate validation of the daily means. The best spatial estimates for the three datasets were obtained in Central Europe with a Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) within 8-13 W/m 2 , whereas the MAD always increased at high-latitudes, snow-covered surfaces, high mountain ranges and coastal areas. Overall, the SARAH-JRC's accuracy was demonstrated over a dense network of stations making it the most consistent dataset for climate monitoring applications. The operational dataset was comparable to SARAH-JRC in Central Europe, but lacked of the temporal stability of climate datasets, while CLARA-A2 did not achieve the same level of accuracy despite predictions obtained showed high uniformity with a small negative bias. The ERA-Interim reanalysis shows the by-far largest deviations from the surface reference measurements.

Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouden, den M.

1996-01-01

The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

Economic production quantity models for imperfect product and service with rework

OpenAIRE

Tai, Allen H.

2012-01-01

When imperfect quality products are produced in a production process, rework may be performed to make them become serviceable. In an inventory system, items may deteriorate. Selling deteriorated items to customers will create negative impact on corporate image. In this paper, two economic production quantity (EPQ) models are proposed for deteriorating items with rework process. A single production-rework plant system and a system consists of $n$ production plants and one rework plant are cons...

Validation of the space fields and the median zonal of the temperature of the air in surface and of the precipitation in Colombia, simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal; Leon Aristizabal Gloria Esperanza; Eslava Ramirez, Jesus Antonio

2001-01-01

This work presents an analysis of the basic fields of the surface temperature and the precipitation for the national territory, from two sources of information: the data originated by the national meteorological network and the generated ones at world-wide level by means of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis project for the assimilation of data coming from diverse world-wide networks. With them reference scenes are constructed to validate the CCM3 model which is used like tool for the projection of the climatic change in Colombia

Short synthesis of 3-(hydroxymethyl)xylitol and structure revision of the anti-diabetic natural product from Casearia esculenta.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Ruomeng; Paddon-Row, Michael N; Sherburn, Michael S

2013-11-01

3-(Hydroxymethyl)xylitol, a compound reportedly isolated from the root of Casearia esculenta (Roxb.), along with its three possible stereoisomers, has been synthesized for the first time by way of a triple dihydroxylation reaction performed upon the simplest cross-conjugated hydrocarbon, [3]dendralene. The data for the natural product do not match any of the isomeric 3-(hydroxymethyl)pentitols. The structure of the natural product from the root of Casearia esculenta (Roxb.) has been corrected by reanalysis of the published data.

Dielectron production in heavy ion collisions at 158 GeV/c per nucleon

CERN Document Server

Hering, Gunar

2002-01-01

In this paper, the low-mass electron pair production in 158 AGeV/c Pb - Au collisions is investigated with the Cherenkov Ring Electron Spectrometer (CERES) at the Super Proton Synchrotron accelerator (SPS) at CERN. The main goal is to search for modifications of hadron properties in hot and dense nuclear matter. The presented re-analysis of the 1996 data set is focused on a detailed study of the combinatorial-background subtraction by means of the mixed-event technique. The results confirm previous findings of CERES. The di-electron production in the mass range of $0.25model calculations and seem to favor the version including in-medium effects. Furthermore, the development of a new technology to manufacture ultralightweight mirrors for Ring Imaging Cherenkov detectors (RICH) is described. Replacement of the RICH-2 glass mirror by a mirror...

A speech production model including the nasal Cavity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Morten

In order to obtain articulatory analysis of speech production the model is improved. the standard model, as used in LPC analysis, to a large extent only models the acoustic properties of speech signal as opposed to articulatory modelling of the speech production. In spite of this the LPC model...... is by far the most widely used model in speech technology....

A model for marketing planning of new products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martensen, Anne

1994-01-01

Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

Local Adaptive Calibration of the GLASS Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Product Using Smoothing Spline

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, X.; Liang, S.; Wang, G.

2015-12-01

Incident solar radiation (ISR) over the Earth's surface plays an important role in determining the Earth's climate and environment. Generally, can be obtained from direct measurements, remotely sensed data, or reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs) data. Each type of product has advantages and limitations: the surface direct measurements provide accurate but sparse spatial coverage, whereas other global products may have large uncertainties. Ground measurements have been normally used for validation and occasionally calibration, but transforming their "true values" spatially to improve the satellite products is still a new and challenging topic. In this study, an improved thin-plate smoothing spline approach is presented to locally "calibrate" the Global LAnd Surface Satellite (GLASS) ISR product using the reconstructed ISR data from surface meteorological measurements. The influences of surface elevation on ISR estimation was also considered in the proposed method. The point-based surface reconstructed ISR was used as the response variable, and the GLASS ISR product and the surface elevation data at the corresponding locations as explanatory variables to train the thin plate spline model. We evaluated the performance of the approach using the cross-validation method at both daily and monthly time scales over China. We also evaluated estimated ISR based on the thin-plate spline method using independent ground measurements at 10 sites from the Coordinated Enhanced Observation Network (CEON). These validation results indicated that the thin plate smoothing spline method can be effectively used for calibrating satellite derived ISR products using ground measurements to achieve better accuracy.

The simulation of medicanes in a high-resolution regional climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cavicchia, Leone [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, Bologna (Italy); Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); Ca' Foscari University, Venice (Italy); Storch, Hans von [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht (Germany); University of Hamburg, Meteorological Institute, Hamburg (Germany)

2012-11-15

Medicanes, strong mesoscale cyclones with tropical-like features, develop occasionally over the Mediterranean Sea. Due to the scarcity of observations over sea and the coarse resolution of the long-term reanalysis datasets, it is difficult to study systematically the multidecadal statistics of sub-synoptic medicanes. Our goal is to assess the long-term variability and trends of medicanes, obtaining a long-term climatology through dynamical downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In this paper, we examine the robustness of this method and investigate the value added for the study of medicanes. To do so, we performed several climate mode simulations with a high resolution regional atmospheric model (CCLM) for a number of test cases described in the literature. We find that the medicanes are formed in the simulations, with deeper pressures and stronger winds than in the driving global NCEP reanalysis. The tracks are adequately reproduced. We conclude that our methodology is suitable for constructing multi-decadal statistics and scenarios of current and possible future medicane activities. (orig.)

Concurrent engineering and product models in seafood companies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan; Børresen, Torger

1998-01-01

Concurrent Engineering (CE) can provide an improved approach to product development for extending the lines of seafood products. Information technology (IT) support tools based on product models can provide an integrated and simultaneous approach for specifying new recipes. The seafood industry can...... benefit from the CE approach which can support product developers to provide concurrent specifications for raw materials, ingredients, packaging, and production methods. The approach involves the use of product models from which line extensions are more easily generated than by use of customary stepwise...

Modeling pure culture heterotrophic production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB).

Science.gov (United States)

Mozumder, Md Salatul Islam; Goormachtigh, Laurens; Garcia-Gonzalez, Linsey; De Wever, Heleen; Volcke, Eveline I P

2014-03-01

In this contribution a mechanistic model describing the production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) through pure-culture fermentation was developed, calibrated and validated for two different substrates, namely glucose and waste glycerol. In both cases, non-growth-associated PHB production was triggered by applying nitrogen limitation. The occurrence of some growth-associated PHB production besides non-growth-associated PHB production was demonstrated, although it is inhibited in the presence of nitrogen. Other phenomena observed experimentally and described by the model included biomass growth on PHB and non-linear product inhibition of PHB production. The accumulated impurities from the waste substrate negatively affected the obtained maximum PHB content. Overall, the developed mathematical model provided an accurate prediction of the dynamic behavior of heterotrophic biomass growth and PHB production in a two-phase pure culture system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Holistic RBS-PIXE data reanalysis of SBT thin film samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reis, M.A.; Barradas, N.P.; Pascual-Izarra, C.; Chaves, P.C.; Ramos, A.R.; Alves, E.; Gonzalez-Aguilar, G.; Costa, M.E.V.; Miranda Salvado, I.M.

2007-01-01

The growth of SrBi 2 Ta 2 O 9 (SBT) films on top of Pt electrode substrates is an important issue for the fabrication of ferroelectric based memories. In a recent publication, SBT thin films grown using seeded and unseeded procedures were studied by PIXE and RBS. Difficulties and misfits found in the comparison of results from both techniques were, at that time, overcome by physical considerations. These, although not rendering interpretation impossible, left out the possibility of understanding the exact nature of the differences between the interface behavior in each case. In the present work it is shown that the reanalysis of the same data using the recently developed RBS-PIXE simultaneous and self-consistent calculation present in NDF leads to stronger conclusions on the solid state reaction occurring during the deposition stage for both types of samples. Allowing for the occurrence of solid state reactions between the deposited film and the Pt electrode even in the case of seeded samples leads to a full explanation of IBA data, this result showing that in complex systems such as this, the PIXE data are essential and must be integrated with the RBS data in an holistic analysis, in order to properly unfold the depth profile of the samples. Contrary to what is usually supposed PIXE data is therefore shown to contain hidden depth structure information

Selection of productivity improvement techniques via mathematical modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahassan M. Khater

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new mathematical model to select an optimal combination of productivity improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper considers four-stage cycle productivity and the productivity is assumed to be a linear function of fifty four improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study of manufacturing plant. The resulted problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming which can be solved for optimality using traditional methods. The preliminary results of the implementation of the proposed model of this paper indicate that the productivity can be improved through a change on equipments and it can be easily applied for both manufacturing and service industries.

A neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production.

Science.gov (United States)

Helie, Sebastien; Roeder, Jessica L; Vucovich, Lauren; Rünger, Dennis; Ashby, F Gregory

2015-07-01

Most behaviors unfold in time and include a sequence of submovements or cognitive activities. In addition, most behaviors are automatic and repeated daily throughout life. Yet, relatively little is known about the neurobiology of automatic sequence production. Past research suggests a gradual transfer from the associative striatum to the sensorimotor striatum, but a number of more recent studies challenge this role of the BG in automatic sequence production. In this article, we propose a new neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production in which the main role of the BG is to train cortical-cortical connections within the premotor areas that are responsible for automatic sequence production. The new model is used to simulate four different data sets from human and nonhuman animals, including (1) behavioral data (e.g., RTs), (2) electrophysiology data (e.g., single-neuron recordings), (3) macrostructure data (e.g., TMS), and (4) neurological circuit data (e.g., inactivation studies). We conclude with a comparison of the new model with existing models of automatic sequence production and discuss a possible new role for the BG in automaticity and its implication for Parkinson's disease.

Fuzzy production planning models for an unreliable production system with fuzzy production rate and stochastic/fuzzy demand rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. A. Halim

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this article, we consider a single-unit unreliable production system which produces a single item. During a production run, the production process may shift from the in-control state to the out-of-control state at any random time when it produces some defective items. The defective item production rate is assumed to be imprecise and is characterized by a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The production rate is proportional to the demand rate where the proportionality constant is taken to be a fuzzy number. Two production planning models are developed on the basis of fuzzy and stochastic demand patterns. The expected cost per unit time in the fuzzy sense is derived in each model and defuzzified by using the graded mean integration representation method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal results of the proposed fuzzy models.

Using SST and land cover data from EO Missions for improved mesoscale modelling of the coastal zone

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Karagali, Ioanna; Floors, Rogier Ralph; Lea, Guillaume

was to evaluate the uncertainty of the modelled wind in the coastal zone and further improve it. Moreover LIDAR measurements were used to evaluate the wind speed retrieval from high resolution SAR systems (Sentinel-1 and TerraSAR-X). The WRF model used a high-resolution satellite SST reanalysis product from...... be implemented in the meso-scale model to better represent the actual conditions in the study area. Such improvements are expected to strengthen the model’s ability to represent land- sea and air-sea interactions, the atmospheric stability and the local topographic features that partly affect the coastal zone......Existing wind measurements in near-shore and offshore areas are sparse and scarce, therefore simulations from state-of-the-art meso-scale models are used for wind resource predictions. In coastal and near-shore areas, models are inaccurate and uncertain, mainly because of numerical approximations...

A reanalysis of "Two types of asynchronous activity in networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons".

Science.gov (United States)

Engelken, Rainer; Farkhooi, Farzad; Hansel, David; van Vreeswijk, Carl; Wolf, Fred

2016-01-01

Neuronal activity in the central nervous system varies strongly in time and across neuronal populations. It is a longstanding proposal that such fluctuations generically arise from chaotic network dynamics. Various theoretical studies predict that the rich dynamics of rate models operating in the chaotic regime can subserve circuit computation and learning. Neurons in the brain, however, communicate via spikes and it is a theoretical challenge to obtain similar rate fluctuations in networks of spiking neuron models. A recent study investigated spiking balanced networks of leaky integrate and fire (LIF) neurons and compared their dynamics to a matched rate network with identical topology, where single unit input-output functions were chosen from isolated LIF neurons receiving Gaussian white noise input. A mathematical analogy between the chaotic instability in networks of rate units and the spiking network dynamics was proposed. Here we revisit the behavior of the spiking LIF networks and these matched rate networks. We find expected hallmarks of a chaotic instability in the rate network: For supercritical coupling strength near the transition point, the autocorrelation time diverges. For subcritical coupling strengths, we observe critical slowing down in response to small external perturbations. In the spiking network, we found in contrast that the timescale of the autocorrelations is insensitive to the coupling strength and that rate deviations resulting from small input perturbations rapidly decay. The decay speed even accelerates for increasing coupling strength. In conclusion, our reanalysis demonstrates fundamental differences between the behavior of pulse-coupled spiking LIF networks and rate networks with matched topology and input-output function. In particular there is no indication of a corresponding chaotic instability in the spiking network.

Parallel Development of Products and New Business Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lund, Morten; Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård

2014-01-01

The perception of product development and the practical execution of product development in professional organizations have undergone dramatic changes in recent years. Many of these chances relate to introduction of broader and more cross-disciplinary views that involves new organizational functi...... and innovation management the 4th generation models are increasingly including the concept business models and business model innovation....... functions and new concepts. These chances can be captured in various generations of practice. This paper will discuss the recent development of 3rd generation product development process models and the emergence of a 4th generation. While the 3rd generation models included the concept of innovation...

Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products

CERN Document Server

Wang, Charlie C L

2013-01-01

The recent trend in user-customized product design requires the shape of products to be automatically adjusted according to the human body’s shape, so that people will feel more comfortable when wearing these products.  Geometric approaches can be used to design the freeform shape of products worn by people, which can greatly improve the efficiency of design processes in various industries involving customized products (e.g., garment design, toy design, jewel design, shoe design, and design of medical devices, etc.). These products are usually composed of very complex geometric shapes (represented by free-form surfaces), and are not driven by a parameter table but a digital human model with free-form shapes or part of human bodies (e.g., wrist, foot, and head models).   Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products introduces the algorithms of human body reconstruction, freeform product modeling, constraining and reconstructing freeform products, and shape optimization for improving...

Improving Timeliness of Winter Wheat Production Forecast in United States of America, Ukraine and China Using MODIS Data and NCAR Growing Degree Day

Science.gov (United States)

Vermote, E.; Franch, B.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Claverie, M.; Huang, J.; Zhang, J.; Sobrino, J. A.

2014-12-01

Wheat is the most important cereal crop traded on international markets and winter wheat constitutes approximately 80% of global wheat production. Thus, accurate and timely forecasts of its production are critical for informing agricultural policies and investments, as well as increasing market efficiency and stability. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) used an empirical generalized model for forecasting winter wheat production. Their approach combined BRDF-corrected daily surface reflectance from Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) with detailed official crop statistics and crop type masks. It is based on the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at the peak of the growing season, percent wheat within the CMG pixel, and the final yields. This method predicts the yield approximately one month to six weeks prior to harvest. In this study, we include the Growing Degree Day (GDD) information extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in order to improve the winter wheat production forecast by increasing the timeliness of the forecasts while conserving the accuracy of the original model. We apply this modified model to three major wheat-producing countries: United States of America, Ukraine and China from 2001 to 2012. We show that a reliable forecast can be made between one month to a month and a half prior to the peak NDVI (meaning two months to two and a half months prior to harvest) while conserving an accuracy of 10% in the production forecast.

Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew L Rizk

2009-09-01

Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

Shared probe design and existing microarray reanalysis using PICKY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chou Hui-Hsien

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Large genomes contain families of highly similar genes that cannot be individually identified by microarray probes. This limitation is due to thermodynamic restrictions and cannot be resolved by any computational method. Since gene annotations are updated more frequently than microarrays, another common issue facing microarray users is that existing microarrays must be routinely reanalyzed to determine probes that are still useful with respect to the updated annotations. Results PICKY 2.0 can design shared probes for sets of genes that cannot be individually identified using unique probes. PICKY 2.0 uses novel algorithms to track sharable regions among genes and to strictly distinguish them from other highly similar but nontarget regions during thermodynamic comparisons. Therefore, PICKY does not sacrifice the quality of shared probes when choosing them. The latest PICKY 2.1 includes the new capability to reanalyze existing microarray probes against updated gene sets to determine probes that are still valid to use. In addition, more precise nonlinear salt effect estimates and other improvements are added, making PICKY 2.1 more versatile to microarray users. Conclusions Shared probes allow expressed gene family members to be detected; this capability is generally more desirable than not knowing anything about these genes. Shared probes also enable the design of cross-genome microarrays, which facilitate multiple species identification in environmental samples. The new nonlinear salt effect calculation significantly increases the precision of probes at a lower buffer salt concentration, and the probe reanalysis function improves existing microarray result interpretations.

Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

1996-08-01

This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

A system dynamics model to determine products mix

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahtab Hajghasem

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an implementation of system dynamics model to determine appropriate product mix by considering various factors such as labor, materials, overhead, etc. for an Iranian producer of cosmetic and sanitary products. The proposed model of this paper considers three hypotheses including the relationship between product mix and profitability, optimum production capacity and having minimum amount of storage to take advantage of low cost production. The implementation of system dynamics on VENSIM software package has confirmed all three hypotheses of the survey and suggested that in order to reach better mix product, it is necessary to reach optimum production planning, take advantage of all available production capacities and use inventory management techniques.

Boolean models of biosurfactants production in Pseudomonas fluorescens.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrien Richard

Full Text Available Cyclolipopeptides (CLPs are biosurfactants produced by numerous Pseudomonas fluorescens strains. CLP production is known to be regulated at least by the GacA/GacS two-component pathway, but the full regulatory network is yet largely unknown. In the clinical strain MFN1032, CLP production is abolished by a mutation in the phospholipase C gene (plcC and not restored by plcC complementation. Their production is also subject to phenotypic variation. We used a modelling approach with Boolean networks, which takes into account all these observations concerning CLP production without any assumption on the topology of the considered network. Intensive computation yielded numerous models that satisfy these properties. All models minimizing the number of components point to a bistability in CLP production, which requires the presence of a yet unknown key self-inducible regulator. Furthermore, all suggest that a set of yet unexplained phenotypic variants might also be due to this epigenetic switch. The simplest of these Boolean networks was used to propose a biological regulatory network for CLP production. This modelling approach has allowed a possible regulation to be unravelled and an unusual behaviour of CLP production in P. fluorescens to be explained.

Evolution Model and Simulation of Profit Model of Agricultural Products Logistics Financing

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Bo; Wu, Yan

2018-03-01

Agricultural products logistics financial warehousing business mainly involves agricultural production and processing enterprises, third-party logistics enterprises and financial institutions tripartite, to enable the three parties to achieve win-win situation, the article first gives the replication dynamics and evolutionary stability strategy between the three parties in business participation, and then use NetLogo simulation platform, using the overall modeling and simulation method of Multi-Agent, established the evolutionary game simulation model, and run the model under different revenue parameters, finally, analyzed the simulation results. To achieve the agricultural products logistics financial financing warehouse business to participate in tripartite mutually beneficial win-win situation, thus promoting the smooth flow of agricultural products logistics business.

Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rahul Tripathi

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

A study for production simulation model generation system based on data model at a shipyard

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Myung-Gi Back

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Simulation technology is a type of shipbuilding product lifecycle management solution used to support production planning or decision-making. Normally, most shipbuilding processes are consisted of job shop production, and the modeling and simulation require professional skills and experience on shipbuilding. For these reasons, many shipbuilding companies have difficulties adapting simulation systems, regardless of the necessity for the technology. In this paper, the data model for shipyard production simulation model generation was defined by analyzing the iterative simulation modeling procedure. The shipyard production simulation data model defined in this study contains the information necessary for the conventional simulation modeling procedure and can serve as a basis for simulation model generation. The efficacy of the developed system was validated by applying it to the simulation model generation of the panel block production line. By implementing the initial simulation model generation process, which was performed in the past with a simulation modeler, the proposed system substantially reduced the modeling time. In addition, by reducing the difficulties posed by different modeler-dependent generation methods, the proposed system makes the standardization of the simulation model quality possible.

Altimetric observations and model simulations of coastal Kelvin waves in the Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Nienhaus, M.J.; Subrahmanyam, B; Murty, V.S.N.

Wavelet analyses of sea surface height (SSH) obtained from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis, satellite altimetry derived SSH anomalies during 1993–2006, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) simulations of SSH during 2003...

Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

2012-01-01

This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...... with a major international engineering company....

A model for individual egg production in chickens

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grossman, M.; Koops, W.J.

2001-01-01

Our primary objective was to improve on an existing model for the individual weekly egg production curve by modeling the curve as a sum of logistic functions: one for the increasing phase of production and a sum for the decreasing phases. To illustrate the model, we used four data sets from two

An assessment of the wind re-analyses in the modelling of an extreme sea state in the Black Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Akpinar, Adem; Ponce de León, S.

2016-03-01

This study aims at an assessment of wind re-analyses for modelling storms in the Black Sea. A wind-wave modelling system (Simulating WAve Nearshore, SWAN) is applied to the Black Sea basin and calibrated with buoy data for three recent re-analysis wind sources, namely the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim (ERA-Interim), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) during an extreme wave condition that occurred in the north eastern part of the Black Sea. The SWAN model simulations are carried out for default and tuning settings for deep water source terms, especially whitecapping. Performances of the best model configurations based on calibration with buoy data are discussed using data from the JASON2, TOPEX-Poseidon, ENVISAT and GFO satellites. The SWAN model calibration shows that the best configuration is obtained with Janssen and Komen formulations with whitecapping coefficient (Cds) equal to 1.8e-5 for wave generation by wind and whitecapping dissipation using ERA-Interim. In addition, from the collocated SWAN results against the satellite records, the best configuration is determined to be the SWAN using the CFSR winds. Numerical results, thus show that the accuracy of a wave forecast will depend on the quality of the wind field and the ability of the SWAN model to simulate the waves under extreme wind conditions in fetch limited wave conditions.

A review of pH calculation and corrosion product solubilities under PWR primary coolant chemistry conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thornton, E.W.; Polley, M.V.

1986-12-01

The calculation of high temperature pH in boric acid solutions is discussed and various relationships for the ionisation constant Ksub(w) or ion product Qsub(w) for water are reviewed. It is shown that the boric acid equilibria of Mesmer, Baes and Sweeton remain virtually unaltered when Marshall and Franck's relationship for Ksub(w) is substituted in a re-analysis of Mesmer, Baes and Sweeton's original experimental data. Magnetite solubility data and Westinghouse's studies of iron, nickel and cobalt solubility from mixed ferrites are collated and consideration is given to experimental difficulties which could have contributed to the variability in the data. Thermodynamic model fits have been computerised and used to compare different studies and to determine pH values at which the temperature dependence of solubility is predicted to be zero. Consideration is given to the differing dependences of solubility on dissolved hydrogen concentration in the three model fits. Two models for predicting iron and nickel solubility with respect to non-stoichiometric nickel ferrites are briefly discussed showing that only one of these is likely to be credible. (author)

A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte

2017-01-01

surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous-time state......Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic......-space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size...

Sum rule limitations of kinetic particle-production models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knoll, J.; CEA Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Grenoble, 38; Guet, C.

1988-04-01

Photoproduction and absorption sum rules generalized to systems at finite temperature provide a stringent check on the validity of kinetic models for the production of hard photons in intermediate energy nuclear collisions. We inspect such models for the case of nuclear matter at finite temperature employed in a kinetic regime which copes those encountered in energetic nuclear collisions, and find photon production rates which significantly exceed the limits imposed by the sum rule even under favourable concession. This suggests that coherence effects are quite important and the production of photons cannot be considered as an incoherent addition of individual NNγ production processes. The deficiencies of present kinetic models may also apply for the production of probes such as the pion which do not couple perturbatively to the nuclear currents. (orig.)

Characteristics and development of European cyclones with tropical origin in reanalysis data

Science.gov (United States)

Dekker, Mark M.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Vries, Hylke de; Baatsen, Michiel; Delden, Aarnout J. van

2018-01-01

Major storm systems over Europe frequently have a tropical origin. This paper analyses the characteristics and dynamics of such cyclones in the observational record, using MERRA reanalysis data for the period 1979-2013. By stratifying the cyclones along three key phases of their development (tropical phase, extratropical transition and final re-intensification), we identify four radically different life cycles: the tropical cyclone and extratropical cyclone life cycles, the classic extratropical transition and the warm seclusion life cycle. More than 50% of the storms reaching Europe from low latitudes follow the warm seclusion life cycle. It also contains the strongest cyclones. They are characterized by a warm core and a frontal T-bone structure, with a northwestward warm conveyor belt and the effects of dry intrusion. Rapid deepening occurs in the latest phase, around their arrival in Europe. Both baroclinic instability and release of latent heat contribute to the strong intensification. The pressure minimum occurs often a day after entering Europe, which enhances the potential threat of warm seclusion storms for Europe. The impact of a future warmer climate on the development of these storms is discussed.

Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Milligan, M R

1996-04-01

As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

2016-01-01

average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...

Merging Radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimates (QPEs) from the High-resolution NEXRAD Reanalysis over CONUS with Rain-gauge Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Prat, O. P.; Nelson, B. R.; Stevens, S. E.; Nickl, E.; Seo, D. J.; Kim, B.; Zhang, J.; Qi, Y.

2015-12-01

The processing of radar-only precipitation via the reanalysis from the National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor Quantitative (NMQ/Q2) based on the WSR-88D Next-generation Radar (Nexrad) network over the Continental United States (CONUS) is completed for the period covering from 2002 to 2011. While this constitutes a unique opportunity to study precipitation processes at higher resolution than conventionally possible (1-km, 5-min), the long-term radar-only product needs to be merged with in-situ information in order to be suitable for hydrological, meteorological and climatological applications. The radar-gauge merging is performed by using rain gauge information at daily (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily: GHCN-D), hourly (Hydrometeorological Automated Data System: HADS), and 5-min (Automated Surface Observing Systems: ASOS; Climate Reference Network: CRN) resolution. The challenges related to incorporating differing resolution and quality networks to generate long-term large-scale gridded estimates of precipitation are enormous. In that perspective, we are implementing techniques for merging the rain gauge datasets and the radar-only estimates such as Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Simple Kriging (SK), Ordinary Kriging (OK), and Conditional Bias-Penalized Kriging (CBPK). An evaluation of the different radar-gauge merging techniques is presented and we provide an estimate of uncertainty for the gridded estimates. In addition, comparisons with a suite of lower resolution QPEs derived from ground based radar measurements (Stage IV) are provided in order to give a detailed picture of the improvements and remaining challenges.

Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

Science.gov (United States)

This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

Evaluation of Temperature and Humidity Profiles of Unified Model and ECMWF Analyses Using GRUAN Radiosonde Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Chan Noh

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Temperature and water vapor profiles from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA and the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMO Unified Model (UM data assimilation systems and from reanalysis fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF were assessed using collocated radiosonde observations from the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN for January–December 2012. The motivation was to examine the overall performance of data assimilation outputs. The difference statistics of the collocated model outputs versus the radiosonde observations indicated a good agreement for the temperature, amongst datasets, while less agreement was found for the relative humidity. A comparison of the UM outputs from the UKMO and KMA revealed that they are similar to each other. The introduction of the new version of UM into the KMA in May 2012 resulted in an improved analysis performance, particularly for the moisture field. On the other hand, ECMWF reanalysis data showed slightly reduced performance for relative humidity compared with the UM, with a significant humid bias in the upper troposphere. ECMWF reanalysis temperature fields showed nearly the same performance as the two UM analyses. The root mean square differences (RMSDs of the relative humidity for the three models were larger for more humid conditions, suggesting that humidity forecasts are less reliable under these conditions.

The impact of applying product-modelling techniques in configurator projects

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hvam, Lars; Kristjansdottir, Katrin; Shafiee, Sara

2018-01-01

This paper aims to increase understanding of the impact of using product-modelling techniques to structure and formalise knowledge in configurator projects. Companies that provide customised products increasingly apply configurators in support of sales and design activities, reaping benefits...... that include shorter lead times, improved quality of specifications and products, and lower overall product costs. The design and implementation of configurators are a challenging task that calls for scientifically based modelling techniques to support the formal representation of configurator knowledge. Even...... the phenomenon model and information model are considered visually, (2) non-UML-based modelling techniques, in which only the phenomenon model is considered and (3) non-formal modelling techniques. This study analyses the impact to companies from increased availability of product knowledge and improved control...

Atmospheric Pressure Corrections in Geodesy and Oceanography: a Strategy for Handling Air Tides

Science.gov (United States)

Ponte, Rui M.; Ray, Richard D.

2003-01-01

Global pressure data are often needed for processing or interpreting modern geodetic and oceanographic measurements. The most common source of these data is the analysis or reanalysis products of various meteorological centers. Tidal signals in these products can be problematic for several reasons, including potentially aliased sampling of the semidiurnal solar tide as well as the presence of various modeling or timing errors. Building on the work of Van den Dool and colleagues, we lay out a strategy for handling atmospheric tides in (re)analysis data. The procedure also offers a method to account for ocean loading corrections in satellite altimeter data that are consistent with standard ocean-tide corrections. The proposed strategy has immediate application to the on-going Jason-1 and GRACE satellite missions.

Aspect-Oriented Model-Driven Software Product Line Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Groher, Iris; Voelter, Markus

Software product line engineering aims to reduce development time, effort, cost, and complexity by taking advantage of the commonality within a portfolio of similar products. The effectiveness of a software product line approach directly depends on how well feature variability within the portfolio is implemented and managed throughout the development lifecycle, from early analysis through maintenance and evolution. This article presents an approach that facilitates variability implementation, management, and tracing by integrating model-driven and aspect-oriented software development. Features are separated in models and composed of aspect-oriented composition techniques on model level. Model transformations support the transition from problem to solution space models. Aspect-oriented techniques enable the explicit expression and modularization of variability on model, template, and code level. The presented concepts are illustrated with a case study of a home automation system.

A non-linear model of economic production processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

2003-06-01

We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

Proposal for product development model focused on ce certification methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathalia Marcia Goulart Pinheiro

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a critical analysis comparing 21 product development models in order to identify whether these structures meet the demands Product Certification of the European Community (CE. Furthermore, it presents a product development model, comprising the steps in the models analyzed, including improvements in activities for referred product certification. The proposed improvements are justified by the growing quest for the internationalization of products and processes within companies.

[Characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem primary productivity in East Asia based on remote sensing and process-based model].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Fang-Min; Ju, Wei-Min; Chen, Jing-Ming; Wang, Shao-Qiang; Yu, Gui-Rui; Han, Shi-Jie

2012-02-01

Based on the bi-linearly interpolated meteorological reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA and by using the leaf area index data derived from the GIMMS NDVI to run the process-based Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, this paper simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in East Asia in 2000-2005. Before regional simulating and calculating, the observation GPP data of different terrestrial ecosystem in 15 experimental stations of AsiaFlux network and the inventory measurements of NPP at 1300 sampling sites were applied to validate the BEPS GPP and NPP. The results showed that BEPS could well simulate the changes in GPP and NPP of different terrestrial ecosystems, with the R2 ranging from 0.86 to 0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.2 to 1.2 g C x m(-2) x d(-1). The simulated values by BEPS could explain 78% of the changes in annual NPP, and the RMSE was 118 g C x m(-2) x a(-1). In 2000-2005, the averaged total GPP and total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia were 21.7 and 10.5 Pg C x a(-1), respectively, and the GPP and NPP exhibited similar spatial and temporal variation patterns. During the six years, the total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystems varied from 10.2 to 10.7 Pg C x a(-1), with a coefficient of variation being 2. 2%. High NPP (above 1000 g C x m(-2) x a(-1)) occurred in the southeast island countries, while low NPP (below 30 g C x m(-2) x a(-1)) occurred in the desert area of Northwest China. The spatial patterns of NPP were mainly attributed to the differences in the climatic variables across East Asia. The NPP per capita also varied greatly among different countries, which was the highest (70217 kg C x a(-1)) in Mongolia, far higher than that (1921 kg C x a(-1)) in China, and the lowest (757 kg C x a(-1)) in India.

H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

2008-09-01

The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

Modelling energy consumption in a manufacturing plant using productivity KPIs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gallachoir, Brian O.; Cahill, Caiman (Sustainable Energy Research Group, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. College Cork (Ireland))

2009-07-01

Energy efficiency initiatives in industrial plants are often focused on getting energy-consuming utilities and devices to operate more efficiently, or on conserving energy. While such device-oriented energy efficiency measures can achieve considerable savings, greater energy efficiency improvement may be achieved by improving the overall productivity and quality of manufacturing processes. The paper highlights the observed relationship between productivity and energy efficiency using aggregated data on unit consumption and production index data for Irish industry. Past studies have developed simple top-down models of final energy consumption in manufacturing plants using energy consumption and production output figures, but these models do not help identify opportunities for energy savings that could achieved through increased productivity. This paper proposes an improved and innovative method of modelling plant final energy demand that introduces standard productivity Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) into the model. The model demonstrates the relationship between energy consumption and productivity, and uses standard productivity metrics to identify the areas of manufacturing activity that offer the most potential for improved energy efficiency. The model provides a means of comparing the effect of device-oriented energy efficiency measures with the potential for improved energy efficiency through increased productivity.

Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnafous, L.

2017-12-01

Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

Reference model for apparel product development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isabel Cristina Moretti

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to develop a reference model for the implementation of the process of product development (PDP for apparel. The tool was developed through an interactive process of comparison between theoretical. Managers in companies and professionals working in this market can utilize the reference model as a source for the organization and improvement of the PDP for apparel and the universities as a reference source for systematized teaching of this process. This model represents the first comprehensive attempt to develop an instrument at a detailed level (macro phases, phases, activities, inputs and outputs at each stage and at the gates to systematize the PDP process for fashion products and to consider its particularities.

Microalgal CO2 sequestering – Modeling microalgae production costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilanovic, Dragoljub; Holland, Mark; Armon, Robert

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Microalgae production costs were modeled as a function of specific expenses. ► The effects of uncontrollable expenses/factors were incorporated into the model. ► Modeled microalgae production costs were in the range $102–1503 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . - Abstract: Microalgae CO 2 sequestering facilities might become an industrial reality if microalgae biomass could be produced at cost below $500.00 t −1 . We develop a model for estimation of total production costs of microalgae as a function of known production-specific expenses, and incorporate into the model the effects of uncontrollable factors which affect known production-specific expenses. Random fluctuations were intentionally incorporated into the model, consequently into generated cost/technology scenarios, because each and every logically interconnected equipment/operation that is used in design/construction/operation/maintenance of a production process is inevitably subject to random cost/price fluctuations which can neither be eliminated nor a priori controlled. A total of 152 costs/technology scenarios were evaluated to find 44 scenarios in which predicted total production costs of microalgae (PTPCM) was in the range $200–500 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . An additional 24 scenarios were found with PTCPM in the range of $102–200 t −1 ha −1 y −1 . These findings suggest that microalgae CO 2 sequestering and the production of commercial compounds from microalgal biomass can be economically viable venture even today when microalgae production technology is still far from its optimum.

Geometrical model of multiple production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chikovani, Z.E.; Jenkovszky, L.L.; Kvaratshelia, T.M.; Struminskij, B.V.

1988-01-01

The relation between geometrical and KNO-scaling and their violation is studied in a geometrical model of multiple production of hadrons. Predictions concerning the behaviour of correlation coefficients at future accelerators are given

A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON SPECTRAL ENERGETICS BETWEEN THE NCEP reanalysisII in current climate AND MODEL ECHAM5 in future scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Aranha, A. F.; Veiga, J. P.

2013-12-01

Saltzman (1957) starting Lorenz Cycle (1955) derived a set of equations that show the energy contained in the basic state and the disturbed atmosphere, decomposing in various fields disturbance wave type, so as to quantify and analyze the energy of these disorders according to their number or wavelength. Based on the methodology Saltzman, this paper aims a comparative study between the energy of the disturbed state between the NCEP reanalysis-II for the current weather conditions and model ECHAM5 scenarios for future conditions of increased concentration of greenhouse gases (RCP26, RCP45 and RCP85), considering the terms of the generation of available potential energy to nth wave due to diabatic heating, represented by (Gn), the potential energy of nth wave (Pn) and kinetic energy of nth wave (Kn), as well as the conversion of energy between kinetic energy and potential energy nth wave of nth wave, given by (Cn). Two data sets were used in the calculation of the aforementioned terms. For the data set of NCEP and ECHAM5 were used variables, temperature (T), orthogonal wind components (u, v, w) and geopotential height (L), considering daily shared values on a regular grid with spatial resolutions of 2,5 x 2.5 and 1.875 x 1.875 graus, distributed on 12 and 15 levels of pressure (1000.0, 925.0, 850.0, 700.0, 600.0, 500.0, 400.0, 300.0, 250.0, 200.0, 150.0, 100.0 hPa), (1000.0, 850.0, 700.0, 500.0, 250.0, 150.0, 100.0, 70.0, 50.0, 30.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.3, 0.1 hPa) for the period of 1979-1999 and 2090-2100, respectively. The results show that most of the kinetic energy of disturbance to nth waves is concentrated in the first 15 wave numbers, both for the weather-NCEP II as to ECHAM5, having more significant increase in the profile and having a RCP85 energy cascade. This increase in kinetic energy was expected due to the increased energy in the system. For Pn, increasing the potential energy is also expected in view of the increased diabatic heating, but the energy jump

Using Multiple Monthly Water Balance Models to Evaluate Gridded Precipitation Products over Peninsular Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Javier Senent-Aparicio

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The availability of precipitation data is the key driver in the application of hydrological models when simulating streamflow. Ground weather stations are regularly used to measure precipitation. However, spatial coverage is often limited in low-population areas and mountain areas. To overcome this limitation, gridded datasets from remote sensing have been widely used. This study evaluates four widely used global precipitation datasets (GPDs: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43, the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN, and the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP, against point gauge and gridded dataset observations using multiple monthly water balance models (MWBMs in four different meso-scale basins that cover the main climatic zones of Peninsular Spain. The volumes of precipitation obtained from the GPDs tend to be smaller than those from the gauged data. Results underscore the superiority of the national gridded dataset, although the TRMM provides satisfactory results in simulating streamflow, reaching similar Nash-Sutcliffe values, between 0.70 and 0.95, and an average total volume error of 12% when using the GR2M model. The performance of GPDs highly depends on the climate, so that the more humid the watershed is, the better results can be achieved. The procedures used can be applied in regions with similar case studies to more accurately assess the resources within a system in which there is scarcity of recorded data available.

A model for marketing planning for new products

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martensen, Anne

1993-01-01

awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

Production system with process quality control: modelling and application

Science.gov (United States)

Tsou, Jia-Chi

2010-07-01

Over the past decade, there has been a great deal of research dedicated to the study of quality and the economics of production. In this article, we develop a dynamic model which is based on the hypothesis of a traditional economic production quantity model. Taguchi's cost of poor quality is used to evaluate the cost of poor quality in the dynamic production system. A practical case from the automotive industry, which uses the Six-sigma DMAIC methodology, is discussed to verify the proposed model. This study shows that there is an optimal value of quality investment to make the production system reach a reasonable quality level and minimise the production cost. Based on our model, the management can adjust its investment in quality improvement to generate considerable financial return.

Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R.; Herrgard, Markus

2013-01-01

associated with the development and implementation of a su stainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow......With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes...... models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process...

A deterministic aggregate production planning model considering quality of products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madadi, Najmeh; Wong, Kuan Yew

2013-01-01

Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is a medium-term planning which is concerned with the lowest-cost method of production planning to meet customers' requirements and to satisfy fluctuating demand over a planning time horizon. APP problem has been studied widely since it was introduced and formulated in 1950s. However, in several conducted studies in the APP area, most of the researchers have concentrated on some common objectives such as minimization of cost, fluctuation in the number of workers, and inventory level. Specifically, maintaining quality at the desirable level as an objective while minimizing cost has not been considered in previous studies. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that serves those companies aiming to incur the minimum level of operational cost while maintaining quality at an acceptable level. In order to obtain the solution to the multi-objective model, the Fuzzy Goal Programming approach and max-min operator of Bellman-Zadeh were applied to the model. At the final step, IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio software was used to obtain the experimental results based on the data collected from an automotive parts manufacturing company. The results show that incorporating quality in the model imposes some costs, however a trade-off should be done between the cost resulting from producing products with higher quality and the cost that the firm may incur due to customer dissatisfaction and sale losses.

Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2015-11-01

Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

Modeling of Agile Intelligent Manufacturing-oriented Production Scheduling System

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Zhong-Qi Sheng; Chang-Ping Tang; Ci-Xing Lv

2010-01-01

Agile intelligent manufacturing is one of the new manufacturing paradigms that adapt to the fierce globalizing market competition and meet the survival needs of the enterprises, in which the management and control of the production system have surpassed the scope of individual enterprise and embodied some new features including complexity, dynamicity, distributivity, and compatibility. The agile intelligent manufacturing paradigm calls for a production scheduling system that can support the cooperation among various production sectors, the distribution of various resources to achieve rational organization, scheduling and management of production activities. This paper uses multi-agents technology to build an agile intelligent manufacturing-oriented production scheduling system. Using the hybrid modeling method, the resources and functions of production system are encapsulated, and the agent-based production system model is established. A production scheduling-oriented multi-agents architecture is constructed and a multi-agents reference model is given in this paper.

On production costs in vertical differentiation models

OpenAIRE

Dorothée Brécard

2009-01-01

In this paper, we analyse the effects of the introduction of a unit production cost beside a fixed cost of quality improvement in a duopoly model of vertical product differentiation. Thanks to an original methodology, we show that a low unit cost tends to reduce product differentiation and thus prices, whereas a high unit cost leads to widen product differentiation and to increase prices

Review of existing landfill leachate production models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khan, T.A.

2000-01-01

The protection of water resources is a fundamental consideration in managing landfill operations. Landfill sites should be designed and operated so as to control leachate production and hence minimize the risk of surface and ground water pollution. A further important development is the use of computer models to estimate the production of leachate from landfill sites. It is revealed from the literature that a number of landfill leachate management model lave been development in recent years. These models allow different engineering schemes to be evaluated and are essential tools for design and operation managements of modern landfills. This paper describes a review of such models mainly focused on their theory, practicability, data requirements, suitability to real situation and usefulness. An evaluation of these models identifies. (author)

Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

2008-01-01

There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

Alcohol advertising, consumption and abuse: a covariance-structural modelling look at Strickland's data.

Science.gov (United States)

Adlaf, E M; Kohn, P M

1989-07-01

Re-analysis employing covariance-structural models was conducted on Strickland's (1983) survey data on 772 drinking students from Grades 7, 9 and 11. These data bear on the relations among alcohol consumption, alcohol abuse, association with drinking peers and exposure to televised alcohol advertising. Whereas Strickland used a just-identified model which, therefore, could not be tested for goodness of fit, our re-analysis tested several alternative models, which could be contradicted by the data. One model did fit his data particularly well. Its major implications are as follows: (1) Symptomatic consumption, negative consequences and self-rated severity of alcohol-related problems apparently reflect a common underlying factor, namely alcohol abuse. (2) Use of alcohol to relieve distress and frequency of intoxication, however, appear not to reflect abuse, although frequent intoxication contributes substantially to it. (3). Alcohol advertising affects consumption directly and abuse indirectly, although peer association has far greater impact on both consumption and abuse. These findings are interpreted as lending little support to further restrictions on advertising.

A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

2002-01-01

CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Herrgård, Markus J

2013-09-01

With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes associated with the development and implementation of a sustainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process, chemical industry, economy, and ecosystem. In addition, we propose a multi-scale approach for integrating the existing models into a cohesive framework. The major benefit of this proposed framework is that the design and decision-making at each scale can be informed, guided, and constrained by simulations and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2014-06-01

Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

Exotic hadron production in a quark combination model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han Wei; Shao Fenglan; Li Shiyuan; Shang Yonghui; Yao Tao

2009-01-01

The philosophy on production of exotic hadrons (multiquark states) in the framework of the quark combination model is investigated, taking f 0 (980) as an example. The production rate and p T spectra of f 0 (980) considered as (ss) or (sqsq), respectively, are calculated and compared in Au+Au collisions at √(s NN )=200 GeV. The unitarity of various combination models, when open for exotic hadron production, is addressed.

Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

2017-12-01

The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

BOREAS TE-17 Production Efficiency Model Images

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A BOREAS version of the Global Production Efficiency Model(www.inform.umd.edu/glopem) was developed by TE-17 to generate maps of gross and net primary production,...

From Landau's hydrodynamical model to field theory model to field theory models of multiparticle production: a tribute to Peter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, F.

1996-01-01

We review the assumptions and domain of applicability of Landau's Hydrodynamical Model. By considering two models of particle production, pair production from strong electric fields and particle production in the linear σ model, we demonstrate that many of Landau's ideas are verified in explicit field theory calculations

Characterization of the rainy season in Burkina Faso and it's representation by regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ibrahim, B.; Karambiri, H. [Institut International d' Ingenierie de l' Eau et de l' Environnement (2iE), Ouagadougou 01 (Burkina Faso); Polcher, J. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique du CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Rockel, B. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Institute of Coastal Research/Group Regional Atmospheric Modeling, Geesthacht (Germany)

2012-09-15

West African monsoon is one of the most challenging climate components to model. Five regional climate models (RCMs) were run over the West African region with two lateral boundary conditions, ERA-Interim re-analysis and simulations from two general circulation models (GCMs). Two sets of daily rainfall data were generated from these boundary conditions. These simulated rainfall data are analyzed here in comparison to daily rainfall data collected over a network of ten synoptic stations in Burkina Faso from 1990 to 2004. The analyses are based on a description of the rainy season throughout a number of it's characteristics. It was found that the two sets of rainfall data produced with the two driving data present significant biases. The RCMs generally produce too frequent low rainfall values (between 0.1 and 5 mm/day) and too high extreme rainfalls (more than twice the observed values). The high frequency of low rainfall events in the RCMs induces shorter dry spells at the rainfall thresholds of 0.1-1 mm/day. Altogether, there are large disagreements between the models on the simulate season duration and the annual rainfall amounts but most striking are their differences in representing the distribution of rainfall intensity. It is remarkable that these conclusions are valid whether the RCMs are driven by re-analysis or GCMs. In none of the analyzed rainy season characteristics, a significant improvement of their representation can be found when the RCM is forced by the re-analysis, indicating that these deficiencies are intrinsic to the models. (orig.)

Pebble Bed Reactor Dust Production Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Joshua J. Cogliati

2008-09-01

The operation of pebble bed reactors, including fuel circulation, can generate graphite dust, which in turn could be a concern for internal components; and to the near field in the remote event of a break in the coolant circuits. The design of the reactor system must, therefore, take the dust into account and the operation must include contingencies for dust removal and for mitigation of potential releases. Such planning requires a proper assessment of the dust inventory. This paper presents a predictive model of dust generation in an operating pebble bed with recirculating fuel. In this preliminary work the production model is based on the use of the assumption of proportionality between the dust production and the normal force and distance traveled. The model developed in this work uses the slip distances and the inter-pebble forces computed by the authors’ PEBBLES. The code, based on the discrete element method, simulates the relevant static and kinetic friction interactions between the pebbles as well as the recirculation of the pebbles through the reactor vessel. The interaction between pebbles and walls of the reactor vat is treated using the same approach. The amount of dust produced is proportional to the wear coefficient for adhesive wear (taken from literature) and to the slip volume, the product of the contact area and the slip distance. The paper will compare the predicted volume with the measured production rates. The simulation tallies the dust production based on the location of creation. Two peak production zones from intra pebble forces are predicted within the bed. The first zone is located near the pebble inlet chute due to the speed of the dropping pebbles. The second peak zone occurs lower in the reactor with increased pebble contact force due to the weight of supported pebbles. This paper presents the first use of a Discrete Element Method simulation of pebble bed dust production.

Pebble Bed Reactor Dust Production Model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Joshua J. Cogliati

2008-01-01

The operation of pebble bed reactors, including fuel circulation, can generate graphite dust, which in turn could be a concern for internal components; and to the near field in the remote event of a break in the coolant circuits. The design of the reactor system must, therefore, take the dust into account and the operation must include contingencies for dust removal and for mitigation of potential releases. Such planning requires a proper assessment of the dust inventory. This paper presents a predictive model of dust generation in an operating pebble bed with recirculating fuel. In this preliminary work the production model is based on the use of the assumption of proportionality between the dust production and the normal force and distance traveled. The model developed in this work uses the slip distances and the inter-pebble forces computed by the authors PEBBLES. The code, based on the discrete element method, simulates the relevant static and kinetic friction interactions between the pebbles as well as the recirculation of the pebbles through the reactor vessel. The interaction between pebbles and walls of the reactor vat is treated using the same approach. The amount of dust produced is proportional to the wear coefficient for adhesive wear (taken from literature) and to the slip volume, the product of the contact area and the slip distance. The paper will compare the predicted volume with the measured production rates. The simulation tallies the dust production based on the location of creation. Two peak production zones from intra pebble forces are predicted within the bed. The first zone is located near the pebble inlet chute due to the speed of the dropping pebbles. The second peak zone occurs lower in the reactor with increased pebble contact force due to the weight of supported pebbles. This paper presents the first use of a Discrete Element Method simulation of pebble bed dust production

Information Sharing In Shipbuilding based on the Product State Model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Michael Holm

1999-01-01

The paper provides a review of product modelling technologies and the overall architecture for the Product State Model (PSM) environment as a basis for how dynamically updated product data can improve control of production activities. Especially, the paper focuses on the circumstances prevailing...

Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model

Science.gov (United States)

Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis

2001-10-01

Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.

Fate of microplastics and mesoplastics carried by surface currents and wind waves: A numerical model approach in the Sea of Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Iwasaki, Shinsuke; Isobe, Atsuhiko; Kako, Shin'ichiro; Uchida, Keiichi; Tokai, Tadashi

2017-08-15

A numerical model was established to reproduce the oceanic transport processes of microplastics and mesoplastics in the Sea of Japan. A particle tracking model, where surface ocean currents were given by a combination of a reanalysis ocean current product and Stokes drift computed separately by a wave model, simulated particle movement. The model results corresponded with the field survey. Modeled results indicated the micro- and mesoplastics are moved northeastward by the Tsushima Current. Subsequently, Stokes drift selectively moves mesoplastics during winter toward the Japanese coast, resulting in increased contributions of mesoplastics south of 39°N. Additionally, Stokes drift also transports micro- and mesoplastics out to the sea area south of the subpolar front where the northeastward Tsushima Current carries them into the open ocean via the Tsugaru and Soya straits. Average transit time of modeled particles in the Sea of Japan is drastically reduced when including Stokes drift in the model. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Surrogate reservoir models for CSI well probabilistic production forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saúl Buitrago

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present the construction and use of Surrogate Reservoir Models capable of accurately predicting cumulative oil production for every well stimulated with cyclic steam injection at any given time in a heavy oil reservoir in Mexico considering uncertain variables. The central composite experimental design technique was selected to capture the maximum amount of information from the model response with a minimum number of reservoir models simulations. Four input uncertain variables (the dead oil viscosity with temperature, the reservoir pressure, the reservoir permeability and oil sand thickness hydraulically connected to the well were selected as the ones with more impact on the initial hot oil production rate according to an analytical production prediction model. Twenty five runs were designed and performed with the STARS simulator for each well type on the reservoir model. The results show that the use of Surrogate Reservoir Models is a fast viable alternative to perform probabilistic production forecasting of the reservoir.

Modeling issues associated with production reactor safety assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stack, D.W.; Thomas, W.R.

1990-01-01

This paper describes several Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) modeling issues that are related to the unique design and operation of the production reactors. The identification of initiating events and determination of a set of success criteria for the production reactors is of concern because of their unique design. The modeling of accident recovery must take into account the unique operation of these reactors. Finally, a more thorough search and evaluation of common-cause events is required to account for combinations of unique design features and operation that might otherwise not be included in the PSA. It is expected that most of these modeling issues also would be encountered when modeling some of the other more unique reactor and nonreactor facilities that are part of the DOE nuclear materials production complex. 9 refs., 2 figs

Accounting for model error due to unresolved scales within ensemble Kalman filtering

OpenAIRE

Mitchell, Lewis; Carrassi, Alberto

2014-01-01

We propose a method to account for model error due to unresolved scales in the context of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF). The approach extends to this class of algorithms the deterministic model error formulation recently explored for variational schemes and extended Kalman filter. The model error statistic required in the analysis update is estimated using historical reanalysis increments and a suitable model error evolution law. Two different versions of the method are describe...

Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

2004-05-01

Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net

The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

2005-01-01

.... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

Evaluation of Extratropical Cyclone Precipitation in the North Atlantic Basin: An analysis of ERA-Interim, WRF, and two CMIP5 models.

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, James F; Naud, Catherine M; Willison, Jeff

2018-03-01

The representation of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) precipitation in general circulation models (GCMs) and a weather research and forecasting (WRF) model is analyzed. This work considers the link between ETC precipitation and dynamical strength and tests if parameterized convection affects this link for ETCs in the North Atlantic Basin. Lagrangian cyclone tracks of ETCs in ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI), the GISS and GFDL CMIP5 models, and WRF with two horizontal resolutions are utilized in a compositing analysis. The 20-km resolution WRF model generates stronger ETCs based on surface wind speed and cyclone precipitation. The GCMs and ERAI generate similar composite means and distributions for cyclone precipitation rates, but GCMs generate weaker cyclone surface winds than ERAI. The amount of cyclone precipitation generated by the convection scheme differs significantly across the datasets, with GISS generating the most, followed by ERAI and then GFDL. The models and reanalysis generate relatively more parameterized convective precipitation when the total cyclone-averaged precipitation is smaller. This is partially due to the contribution of parameterized convective precipitation occurring more often late in the ETC life cycle. For reanalysis and models, precipitation increases with both cyclone moisture and surface wind speed, and this is true if the contribution from the parameterized convection scheme is larger or not. This work shows that these different models generate similar total ETC precipitation despite large differences in the parameterized convection, and these differences do not cause unexpected behavior in ETC precipitation sensitivity to cyclone moisture or surface wind speed.

Modeling dependencies in product families with COVAMOF

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sinnema, Marco; Deelstra, Sybren; Nijhuis, Jos; Bosch, Jan; Riebisch, M; Tabeling, P; Zorn, W

2006-01-01

Many variability modeling approaches consider only formalized dependencies, i.e. in- or exclude relations between variants. However, in real industrial product families, dependencies are often much more complicated. In this paper, we discuss the product derivation problems associated with

An integrated production-inventory model for food products adopting a general raw material procurement policy

Science.gov (United States)

Fauza, G.; Prasetyo, H.; Amanto, B. S.

2018-05-01

Studies on an integrated production-inventory model for deteriorating items have been done extensively. Most of the studies define deterioration as physical depletion of some inventories over time. This definition may not represent the deterioration characteristics of food products. The quality of food production decreases over time while the quantity remains the same. Further, in the existing models, the raw material is replenished several times (or at least once) within one production cycle. In food industries, however, a food company, for several reasons (e.g., the seasonal raw materials, discounted price, etc.) sometimes will get more benefit if it orders raw materials in a large quantity. Considering this fact, this research, therefore, is aimed at developing a more representative inventory model by (i) considering the quality losses in food and (ii) adopting a general raw material procurement policy. A mathematical model is established to represent the proposed policy in which the total profit of the system is the objective function. To evaluate the performance of the model, a numerical test was conducted. The numerical test indicates that the developed model has better performance, i.e., the total profit is 2.3% higher compared to the existing model.

A Production Model for Construction: A Theoretical Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricardo Antunes

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The building construction industry faces challenges, such as increasing project complexity and scope requirements, but shorter deadlines. Additionally, economic uncertainty and rising business competition with a subsequent decrease in profit margins for the industry demands the development of new approaches to construction management. However, the building construction sector relies on practices based on intuition and experience, overlooking the dynamics of its production system. Furthermore, researchers maintain that the construction industry has no history of the application of mathematical approaches to model and manage production. Much work has been carried out on how manufacturing practices apply to construction projects, mostly lean principles. Nevertheless, there has been little research to understand the fundamental mechanisms of production in construction. This study develops an in-depth literature review to examine the existing knowledge about production models and their characteristics in order to establish a foundation for dynamic production systems management in construction. As a result, a theoretical framework is proposed, which will be instrumental in the future development of mathematical production models aimed at predicting the performance and behaviour of dynamic project-based systems in construction.

Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

2018-04-01

The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

Robust Optimization Model for Production Planning Problem under Uncertainty