WorldWideScience

Sample records for model reanalysis products

  1. An integrated evaluation of land surface energy fluxes over China in seven reanalysis/modeling products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongyu; Fu, Congbin; Guo, Weidong

    2017-08-01

    An integrated evaluation of monthly mean land surface energy fluxes over China in seven reanalysis and land model products during the period 1979-2015 is conducted. Observations from seven field sites are used to evaluate these flux products, including four reanalysis data sets and three produced by off-line land surface models. In general, the expected seasonal variations and spatial patterns in major climatic regimes are well reproduced by all reanalysis and modeling products. However, large differences among the four reanalysis products are found, while the three off-line land surface modeling products correlate well with each other. Looking at the Bowen ratio, it is found that the off-line land surface models convert a larger fraction of surface available energy into sensible heat flux compared to the reanalysis products in all climatic regimes. There are three centers of high interannual variability in sensible heat located in West China, Northeast China, and the eastern Inner Mongolia, respectively. In addition, the sensible heat flux agrees better with observations at grassland sites than at forest sites, while the latent heat flux and net radiation are significantly overestimated at forest sites in all the flux products. Besides, mean square errors of the fluxes are decomposed into biases, correlations, and differences in standard deviation. Finally, based on a ranking system adopted to quantitatively evaluate the performance of each data set, it is found that the surface energy fluxes in ERA-Interim and JRA-25 agree well with observations and the ensemble mean of all these products remains reasonably realistic as well.

  2. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  3. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

  4. Detection and Attribution of Precipitation Extremes over China using Gauge Observations, Reanalysis Products and Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C.; Wang, K.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation characteristics have undergone notable changes over the past several decades (IPCC 2013) and their extremes at subdaily, seasonal to decadal timescales should be associated with severe impacts such as drought and flooding. Using gauge observations, reanalysis and model simulation of precipitation, we did a systematic detection and attribution for multi-graded precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2014 over China. (1) We found subdaily precipitation characteristics exhibit an asymmetrical long-term trends, i.e., the long-time decreasing (increasing) trend in nighttime precipitation frequency (intensity) is significantly greater than that in daytime precipitation frequency (intensity) from 1979 to 2014 over China, despite of no significant change in precipitation amount. (2) We examined the eight current reanalysis products and pointed out that the JRA-55 roughly capture this trend pattern in precipitation intensity but still have considerable room for improvement. (3) We put forward a novel method to quantify the precipitation scalings with long-term warming trend and interannual-decadal variation of surface air temperature from 1979 to 2014 over China. In this method, we successfully isolated the dynamic and thermodynamic effect on precipitation scaling and further reconciled a seemingly contradiction on existing reports. (4) Combining the observed with modeled precipitation from CMIP5 and HadGEM3-A-based attribution system, we separated the impact of global warming and El Niño on increasing probability of the occurrence of such events as the July 2016 flood-induced extreme precipitation over China's Wuhan. These results have been published in Journal of Climate and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

  5. Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

    2015-11-01

    Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

  6. AN EFFICIENT STRUCTURAL REANALYSIS MODEL FOR ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    to a form (see Annex): in which F is the flexibility matrix, N is the vector of redundant forces, and D the displacement compatibility vector corresponding to the ... effort both in the synthesis and the analysis phases as reanalysis is to be carried out at significantly. 'large number of design coordinates in the design space. A more ...

  7. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project....

  8. Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Moraes, Elisabete C; Bertani, Gabriel; Dos Santos, Thiago V; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Aragão, Luiz E O C

    2016-06-24

    In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001-December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance.

  9. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  10. Investigation on the Urmia Lake Drought Using Satellite Altimetry and Weather Reanalysis Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabzehee, F.; Nafisi, V.; Iran Pour, S.

    2017-09-01

    The Urmia Lake is located in northwestern Iran. It is the sixth largest salt lake in the world. In the past 14 years, this lake strongly faced to the water level decrease and surface water reduction. Several space-borne techniques have been employed for detecting the hydrological cycle and its inter-annual changes. The goal of this paper is to investigate weather reanalysis products such as specific humidity of NCEP model and a total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF model and other techniques such as satellite altimetry that have been powerful for the identification of some drought factors of the Urmia Lake. In this study, we used satellite altimetry data from ENVISAT and CryoSat-2 to monitor the Lake water level and optical satellite imagery to determine the surface water extent of the lake during 2002 to 2014. Our altimetry and satellite imagery results reveal decrease in height and area of Urmia Lake over the last 14 years. The lake surface area and the water level decreased continuously at approximately 2666 km2 and 3.5 m respectively. Moreover, we employed the monthly 0.125°×0.125° datasets of the ECMWF data and 2.5°×2.5° datasets of the NCEP data to demonstrate amount of water vapor in the atmosphere over the lake. The total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF data and specific humidity of NCEP data show similar behavior. Results indicate that no meaningful correlation between the altimetry data and weather reanalysis models exists. The weather reanalysis models do not indicate descending variations during 2000 until 2014. For interpreting the situation and studying the climate change and man-made impacts on the drought in this region, we need to use ground-based data such as wind speed, precipitation, barometric pressure and temperature.

  11. INVESTIGATION ON THE URMIA LAKE DROUGHT USING SATELLITE ALTIMETRY AND WEATHER REANALYSIS PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sabzehee

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Urmia Lake is located in northwestern Iran. It is the sixth largest salt lake in the world. In the past 14 years, this lake strongly faced to the water level decrease and surface water reduction. Several space-borne techniques have been employed for detecting the hydrological cycle and its inter-annual changes. The goal of this paper is to investigate weather reanalysis products such as specific humidity of NCEP model and a total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF model and other techniques such as satellite altimetry that have been powerful for the identification of some drought factors of the Urmia Lake. In this study, we used satellite altimetry data from ENVISAT and CryoSat-2 to monitor the Lake water level and optical satellite imagery to determine the surface water extent of the lake during 2002 to 2014. Our altimetry and satellite imagery results reveal decrease in height and area of Urmia Lake over the last 14 years. The lake surface area and the water level decreased continuously at approximately 2666 km2 and 3.5 m respectively. Moreover, we employed the monthly 0.125°×0.125° datasets of the ECMWF data and 2.5°×2.5° datasets of the NCEP data to demonstrate amount of water vapor in the atmosphere over the lake. The total column water vapor extracted from ECMWF data and specific humidity of NCEP data show similar behavior. Results indicate that no meaningful correlation between the altimetry data and weather reanalysis models exists. The weather reanalysis models do not indicate descending variations during 2000 until 2014. For interpreting the situation and studying the climate change and man-made impacts on the drought in this region, we need to use ground-based data such as wind speed, precipitation, barometric pressure and temperature.

  12. An efficient structural reanalysis model for general design changes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Approximate structural reanalysis methods have long been pursued in quest for efficiency so as to enhance their practical' application in the assessment and verification of designs following design modifications, These have been of significant practical importance with particular emphasis on design optimization of ...

  13. Examination of Satellite and Model Reanalysis Precipitation with Climate Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donato, T. F.; Houser, P. R.

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the efficacy of satellite and model reanalysis precipitation with climate oscillations. Specifically, we examine and compare the relationship between the Global Precipitation Climate Project (GPCP) with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) in regards to four climate indices: The North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, the Southern Annular Mode and Solar Activity. This analysis covers a 35-year observation period from 1980 through 2015. We ask two questions: How is global and regional precipitation changing over the observation period, and how are global and regional variations in precipitation related to global climate variation? We explore and compare global and regional precipitation trends between the two data sets. To do this, we constructed a total of 56 Regions of Interest (ROI). Nineteen of the ROIs were focused on geographic regions including continents, ocean basins, and marginal seas. Twelve ROIs examine hemispheric processes. The remaining 26 regions are derived from spatial-temporal classification analysis of GPCP data over a ten-year period (2001-2010). These regions include the primary wet and dry monsoon regions, regions influenced by western boundary currents, and orography. We investigate and interpret the monthly, seasonal and yearly global and regional response to the selected climate indices. Initial results indicate that no correlation exist between the GPCP data and Merra-2 data. Preliminary qualitative assessment between GCPC and solar activity suggest a possible relationship in intra-annual variability. This work is performed under the State of the Global Water and Energy Cycle (SWEC) project, a NASA-sponsored program in support of NASA's Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS).

  14. SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, M.; Long, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    The middle atmosphere and climate community use reanalyses widely to understand atmospheric processes and variability in the middle atmosphere, to validate climate models, and, potentially, for trend analysis. Yet different reanalyses give different results for the same diagnostic. There is thus a need for a coordinated reanalysis intercomparison project that shall start a comprehensive activity to compare all appropriate reanalysis data sets for key diagnostics to help understand the causes of differences and to use the results to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies. In addition, the reanalysis community will benefit from coordinated user feedback, which can lead to improvements in the next generation of reanalysis products. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a SPARC activity that was proposed in 2012 and approved in 2014. The goals of S-RIP are: (1) to create a communication platform between the SPARC community and the reanalysis centers; (2) to understand current reanalysis products and to contribute to future reanalysis improvements in the middle atmosphere region; and (3) to write up the results of the reanalysis intercomparison in peer reviewed papers and a SPARC report. The project duration is from 2013 to 2018. In the presentation, an overview of the project is made and some early intercomparison results are discussed.

  15. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

    2017-09-25

    The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

  16. Multidecadal Changes in the UTLS Ozone from the MERRA-2 Reanalysis and the GMI Chemistry Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargan, Krzysztof; Orbe, Clara; Pawson, Steven; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Oman, Luke; Olsen, Mark; Coy, Lawrence; Knowland, Emma

    2018-01-01

    Long-term changes of ozone in the UTLS (Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere) reflect the response to decreases in the stratospheric concentrations of ozone-depleting substances as well as changes in the stratospheric circulation induced by climate change. To date, studies of UTLS ozone changes and variability have relied mainly on satellite and in-situ observations as well as chemistry-climate model simulations. By comparison, the potential of reanalysis ozone data remains relatively untapped. This is despite evidence from recent studies, including detailed analyses conducted under SPARC (Scalable Processor Architecture) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP), that demonstrate that stratospheric ozone fields from modern atmospheric reanalyses exhibit good agreement with independent data while delineating issues related to inhomogeneities in the assimilated observations. In this presentation, we will explore the possibility of inferring long-term geographically and vertically resolved behavior of the lower stratospheric (LS) ozone from NASA's MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -2) reanalysis after accounting for the few known discontinuities and gaps in its assimilated input data. This work builds upon previous studies that have documented excellent agreement between MERRA-2 ozone and ozonesonde observations in the LS. Of particular importance is a relatively good vertical resolution of MERRA-2 allowing precise separation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone contents. We also compare the MERRA-2 LS ozone results with the recently completed 37-year simulation produced using Goddard Earth Observing System in "replay"� mode coupled with the GMI (Global Modeling Initiative) chemistry mechanism. Replay mode dynamically constrains the model with the MERRA-2 reanalysis winds, temperature, and pressure. We will emphasize the areas of agreement of the reanalysis and replay and interpret differences between them in the context

  17. Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bedia

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed.

    In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity.

    As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still

  18. Comparison and evaluation of satellite- and reanalysis-based precipitation products for water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Khan, Abu; Sohel Masud, Md.; Abdulla Hel Kafi, Md.; Sultana, Tashrifa; Lopez Lopez, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    The Brahmaputra River, with a transboundary basin area of approx. 554,500 km2, has its origin on the northern slope of the Himalayas in China, from where it flows through India, Bhutan and finally Bangladesh. Brahmaputra basin's climatology is heavily conditioned by precipitation during the monsoon months, concentrating about the 85 % of the rainfall in this period and originating severe and frequent floods that impact specially the Bangladeshi population in the delta region. Recent campaigns to increase the quality and to share ground-based hydro-meteorological data, in particular precipitation, within the basin have provided limited results. Global rainfall data from satellite and reanalysis may improve the temporal and spatial availability of in-situ observations for advanced water resources management. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of several global precipitation products from satellite and reanalysis in comparison with in-situ data to quantify their added value for hydrological modeling at a basin and sub-basin scale for the Brahmaputra River. Precipitation products from CMORPH, TRMM-3B42, GsMAP, WFDEI, MSWEP and various combinations with ground-based data were evaluated at basin and sub-basin level at a daily and monthly temporal resolution. The Brahmaputra was delineated into 54 sub-basins for a more detailed evaluation of the precipitation products. The data were analysed and inter-compared for the time period from 2002 to 2010. Precipitation performance assessment was conducted including several indicators, such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). Preliminary results indicate high correlation and low bias and RMSE values between WFDEI, TRMM-3B42 and CMORPH precipitation and in-situ observations at a monthly time scale. Lower correlations and higher bias and RMSE values were found between GsMAP and MSWEP and ground-observed precipitation

  19. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  20. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahima Diouf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM, driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be

  1. Inferring the Relative Quality of Reanalysis Data from a Historical Reforecast Using a Vorticity Equation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballesteros, C. A.; Herrmann, M.; Huang, H.

    2011-12-01

    The improvement of numerical weather prediction models in recent decades has led to a measurable decrease in forecast error, for instance as quantified by the 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly correlation. This improvement can be attributed in part to the refinements in the numerical architecture and the representation of physical processes in the model. It is more difficult to attribute the reduction in forecast error to improvements in the accuracy of the models' initial conditions, not least because of the complexity of the data assimilation process. As a contribution to this problem that will also be pedagogically useful, a reforecast experiment was conducted using a simple regional vorticity equation model for the 500-hPa flow over North America. This model is comparable in complexity to the Charney-Fjörtoft-von Neumann model used for the first numerical weather prediction experiment in 1949. Six-hourly predictions are made out to 36 hours for the period from 1948-2010, using the NCEP Reanalysis dataset for the initial conditions. Because initialization is trivial for this "filtered" model, one can clearly attribute the change in forecast skill to the changing quality of the initial state. The choice of the 500 hPa level is relevant since it will reflect the effect of the significant change in the density of upper-air observations from the mid- to late 20th Century. As an important byproduct of this exercise, a trend of improved forecast over time will imply an improved relative quality of the reanalysis data for the mid-troposphere. Therefore, the experiment serves two purposes of studying the forecast error and checking the quality of the reanalysis. An analysis of selected cases indicates that the predictions made for the 21st century have smaller errors compared to those made for the 1950s. A comprehensive analysis for the whole set of forecast is underway and the outcome will be discussed.

  2. Equalizing effects of the wind energy production in Northern Europe determined from reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor

    2000-01-01

    The wind energy resource of Northern Europe is spread out over a geographically large area. This helps the utilities to integrate wind energy into their grids, since the generation is less variable, when it is combined from a larger area. The analysis wasdone based on 34 years of Reanalysis data...

  3. Monitoring Multidecadal satellite earth observation of soil moisture products through land surface reanalysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.; Balsamo, G.; Sabatar, J; de Rosnay, P.; Isaksen, I; Brocca, L; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.

    2013-01-01

    Soil moisture from ERA-Land, a revised version of the land surface components of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim), is used to monitor at a global scale the consistency of a new microwave based multi-satellite surface soil moisture date set

  4. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  5. Statistical evaluation of the performance of gridded monthly precipitation products from reanalysis data, satellite estimates, and merged analyses over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Xueliang; Nie, Suping; Deng, Weitao; Cao, Weihua

    2018-04-01

    In this study, we compared the following four different gridded monthly precipitation products: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction version 2 (NCEP-2) reanalysis data, the satellite-based Climate Prediction Center Morphing technique (CMORPH) data, the merged satellite-gauge Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data, and the merged satellite-gauge-model data from the Beijing Climate Center Merged Estimation of Precipitation (BMEP). We evaluated the performances of these products using monthly precipitation observations spanning the period of January 2003 to December 2013 from a dense, national, rain gauge network in China. Our assessment involved several statistical techniques, including spatial pattern, temporal variation, bias, root-mean-square error (RMSE), and correlation coefficient (CC) analysis. The results show that NCEP-2, GPCP, and BMEP generally overestimate monthly precipitation at the national scale and CMORPH underestimates it. However, all of the datasets successfully characterized the northwest to southeast increase in the monthly precipitation over China. Because they include precipitation gauge information from the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) network, GPCP and BMEP have much smaller biases, lower RMSEs, and higher CCs than NCEP-2 and CMORPH. When the seasonal and regional variations are considered, NCEP-2 has a larger error over southern China during the summer. CMORPH poorly reproduces the magnitude of the precipitation over southeastern China and the temporal correlation over western and northwestern China during all seasons. BMEP has a lower RMSE and higher CC than GPCP over eastern and southern China, where the station network is dense. In contrast, BMEP has a lower CC than GPCP over western and northwestern China, where the gauge network is relatively sparse.

  6. Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System aerosol reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. R. Colarco

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI aerosol index (AI product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero. Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI near-UV aerosol retrieval algorithms (known as OMAERUV is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining to the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600 and 1013.25 hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial-resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

  7. Simulation of the Ozone Monitoring Instrument aerosol index using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System aerosol reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colarco, Peter R.; Gassó, Santiago; Ahn, Changwoo; Buchard, Virginie; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Torres, Omar

    2017-11-01

    We provide an analysis of the commonly used Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) aerosol index (AI) product for qualitative detection of the presence and loading of absorbing aerosols. In our analysis, simulated top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiances are produced at the OMI footprints from a model atmosphere and aerosol profile provided by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications aerosol reanalysis (MERRAero). Having established the credibility of the MERRAero simulation of the OMI AI in a previous paper we describe updates in the approach and aerosol optical property assumptions. The OMI TOA radiances are computed in cloud-free conditions from the MERRAero atmospheric state, and the AI is calculated. The simulated TOA radiances are fed to the OMI near-UV aerosol retrieval algorithms (known as OMAERUV) is compared to the MERRAero calculated AI. Two main sources of discrepancy are discussed: one pertaining to the OMI algorithm assumptions of the surface pressure, which are generally different from what the actual surface pressure of an observation is, and the other related to simplifying assumptions in the molecular atmosphere radiative transfer used in the OMI algorithms. Surface pressure assumptions lead to systematic biases in the OMAERUV AI, particularly over the oceans. Simplifications in the molecular radiative transfer lead to biases particularly in regions of topography intermediate to surface pressures of 600 and 1013.25 hPa. Generally, the errors in the OMI AI due to these considerations are less than 0.2 in magnitude, though larger errors are possible, particularly over land. We recommend that future versions of the OMI algorithms use surface pressures from readily available atmospheric analyses combined with high-spatial-resolution topographic maps and include more surface pressure nodal points in their radiative transfer lookup tables.

  8. Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA Using Satellite and Surface Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaotong Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface (Rs is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55 using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from −2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 were obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

  9. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008–2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. PMID:28080984

  10. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

    2016-12-05

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  11. Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Romanowsky, Erik; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems.

  12. Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Fischer, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.; Ganske, A.; Rosenhagen, G.; Heinrich, H.

    2015-06-01

    A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001-2100)-(1901-2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

  13. Complementizer Agreement in Modern Varieties of West Germanic: A Model of Reanalysis and Renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousquette, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of Complementizer Agreement (C-agr) in modern dialects of West Germanic from a diachronic perspective, attributing the rise and development of C-agr to the initiation and progression of a Linguistic Cycle specific to C-agr. Approached as a historical process of reanalysis and compensatory renewal…

  14. NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized reanalysis (4x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

  15. Variable amplitude fatigue analysis using surrogate models and exact XFEM reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pais, Matthew Jon

    Fatigue crack growth occurs as the result of repeated cyclic loading well below the stress levels which typically would cause failure. The number of cycles to failure for high-cycle fatigue is commonly of the order of 10 4--108 cycles to failure. Fatigue is characterized by a differential equation which gives the crack growth rate as a function of material properties and the stress intensity factor. Analytical relationships for the stress intensity factor are limited to simple geometries. A numerical method is commonly used to find the stress intensity factor for a given geometry under certain loading. The use of kriging to assist higher-order approximations is introduced. Here stress intensity factor data is fit using a surrogate. This surrogate is used to extrapolate for the purpose of integration, which enables larger step sizes to be taken without a loss in accuracy for the solution of the governing differential equation. Furthermore, it was observed that for the extended finite element method a small portion of the global stiffness matrix is changed as a result of crack growth. It is possible to use this small portion to save on both the assembly and solution of the resulting system of linear equations. This results in savings in both the assembly and factorization of the stiffness matrix for repeated simulations reducing the computational cost associated with numerical fatigue crack growth. The use of the XFEM reanalysis algorithm allow for the analysis of nonproportional mixed-mode variable amplitude loading upon an airplane wing to be considered. An airplane wing box was analyzed using AbaqusRTM. The Abaqus RTM stress solution was used in coordination with airplane flight data provided by the Air Force Research Laboratory. This stress history is converted into a cyclic loading history through the use of the rainflow counting method. The resulting analysis is one where approximately 30,000 cycles elapse. Due to the non-proportional loading, each cycle must

  16. GREP: Evaluation of the Copernicus Marine Service Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product: deriving uncertainty estimates for 3D T and S variability in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desportes, Charles; Drévillon, Marie; Drillet, Yann; Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Régnier, Charly; Masina, Simona; Storto, Andrea; Petterson, Drew; Wood, Richard; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Zuo, Hao

    2017-04-01

    Global ocean reanalyses are homogeneous 3D gridded descriptions of the physical state of the ocean spanning several decades, produced with a numerical ocean model constrained with data assimilation of satellite and in situ observations. The evaluation of global ocean reanalyses, and of how well they capture ocean variability, has progressed these recent years thanks to the CLIVAR/GSOP/GODAE Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project ORA-IP (Balmaseda et al 2015). During the MyOcean project, several high resolution (1/4° horizontal grid) reanalyses based on NEMO but produced with different tunings and by different institutes, were evaluated jointly using common validation guidelines (Masina et al, 2015). The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service CMEMS (marine.copernicus.eu) Global Monitoring and Forecasting Center now takes advantage of the diversity of ocean reanalyses currently developed with that same NEMO model grid (ORCA025 at ¼°) to propose a multi-model ensemble product, which spread allows uncertainties or error bars to be estimated. In a number of regions, the ensemble mean may even provide a more reliable estimate than any individual reanalysis product. Four reanalyses have been selected to contribute to the project; GLORYS2V4 from Mercator Ocean (Fr), ORAS5 from ECMWF, FOAM/GloSea from Met Office (UK), and C-GLORS from CMCC (It). The four different time series of global ocean 3D monthly estimates have been post-processed to create the new product called GREP (Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product), covering the recent period during which altimetry observations are available: 1993-2015. Starting from April 20th 2017, the ensemble mean and standard deviation of the ensemble, as well as the four individual members for the period 1993-2015, are thus made available on a 1°x1° grid and monthly frequency. The time series will be extended by one year each year. In the presentation, we will describe the results of the scientific qualification of the

  17. The GEWEX Integrated Product - An Assessment of the Terrestrial Water Cycle from Satellite Observations and Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kummerow, C.; Brown, P.

    2017-12-01

    The GEWEX Data and Assessments Paned (GDAP) has been working on a set of consistent products describing the water and energy budgets as well as fluxes at high spatial (1°) and temporal (3hr) resolution. Unlike individual products, the GEWEX Integrated product is careful to make assumptions consistent among algorithms and use internally derived parameters from one product (e.g. clouds from the ISCCP) as input to all other products requiring cloud information. This product was developed with two goals in mind: The first was to validate individual assumptions by cross-checking them with other products within the water and energy budget and ultimately verifying closure of the water and energy budgets within the uncertainties of each algorithm. With the recent completion of the first version of the GEWEX Integrated product, this talk will offer a first look at the consistency among the products insofar as the terrestrial water budget is concerned. Satellite observations of evaporation and precipitation will be compared to atmospheric water vapor divergences from ERA-Interim for various regions, and time scales to assess consistency among the individual estimates. The second goal was to make a available to the community, an internally consistent product that could be used to better understand climate processes and feedback. The status of this will also be discussed.

  18. Reanalysis of global terrestrial vegetation trends from MODIS products: Browning or greening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yulong Zhang; Conghe Song; Lawrence E. Band; Ge Sun; Junxiang Li

    2017-01-01

    Accurately monitoring global vegetation dynamics with modern remote sensing is critical for understanding the functions and processes of the biosphere and its interactions with the planetary climate. The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI) product has been a primary data source for this purpose. To date, theMODIS teamhad released...

  19. Intercomparison of IPCC AR4 models with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis within the AFRICA-CORDEX domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, M.; González, Y.; Díaz, J. P.; Expósito, F. J.; Pérez, J. C.; González, A.

    2012-04-01

    One of the most useful techniques to obtain regional climate projections along the XXI century is to run a mesoscale model driven by coarse input data (initial and boundaries conditions) obtained from Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Models (AOGCM). This is the dynamical downscaling approach. To correctly configure the dynamical downscaling approach it is necessary to choose the correct input dataset that project the climatic situation in a more accurate way and to establish a boundary to the errors in the results associated to these input data. In this study, we consider that the agreement of models with present observations is a way to assign confidence to the quality of a model. With this aim we intercompare the surface temperature of 21 IPCC AR4 runs models with the results from the reanalysis databases ERA40 and NCEP/NCAR in the CORDEX-AFRICA domain in the period 1961-2000. Thus, we have studied the seasonal cycles of the four decades of this period in addition to the probability density functions (PDFs) of the IPCC models. The statistical study allows us to classify the IPCC AR4 models according to their discrepancies with reanalysis data for the CORDEX domain. In general, the MRI CGCM 2.3.2 IPCC AR4 model presents the best fits compared with the reanalysis databases regarding to the correlation factor, root mean square (rms) and PDF skill score. For the intercomparison with ERA-40, the percentage of points with rms lower than 2°C is over 80%, for the four decades; with 89% of the points showing correlations coefficients larger than 0.80 and a 76 % of the data presents skill-scores values, based on the common areas of the PDFs, above a threshold of 0.7. Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge to the MEC (Ministry of Education and Science, Spain) for the next supports: projects CGL2007-66477-C02-02/CLI, CGL2008-04740/CLI, CGL2010-21366-C04-01 and UNLL08-3E-007.

  20. JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Yumimoto

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1°  ×  1.1°. This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET (RMSE  =  0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE  =  28.1 %, MFB  =  0.6 %, and IOA  =  0.93. Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in

  1. JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumimoto, Keiya; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Oshima, Naga; Maki, Takashi

    2017-09-01

    A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero) was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1° × 1.1°). This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation) of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE) of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB) of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) (RMSE = 0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE = 28.1 %, MFB = 0.6 %, and IOA = 0.93). Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in industrializing countries) and a positive bias at mountain sites, possibly because

  2. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koller, Josep [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10{sup 5} calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models over more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand

  3. A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Wada, Y.; Tregoning, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data

  4. An ensemble estimation of the variability of upper-ocean heat content over the tropical Atlantic Ocean with multi-ocean reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Jieshun [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Balmaseda, Magdalena A. [European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-08-15

    Current ocean reanalysis systems contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the subsurface oceanic state, especially in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Given this level of uncertainty, it is important to develop useful strategies to identify realistic low-frequency signals optimally from these analyses. In this paper, we present an ''ensemble'' method to estimate the variability of upper-ocean heat content (HC) in the tropical Atlantic based on multiple-ocean reanalysis products. Six state-of-the-art global ocean reanalysis products, all of which are widely used in the climate research community, are examined in terms of their HC variability from 1979 to 2007. The conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the HC anomalies from each individual analysis indicates that their leading modes show significant qualitative differences among analyses, especially for the first modes, although some common characteristics are discernable. Then, the simple arithmetic average (or ensemble mean) is applied to produce an ensemble dataset, i.e., the EM analysis. The leading EOF modes of the EM analysis show quantitatively consistent spatial-temporal patterns with those derived from an alternative EOF technique that maximizes signal-to-noise ratio of the six analyses, which suggests that the ensemble mean generates HC fields with the noise reduced to an acceptable level. The quality of the EM analysis is further validated against AVISO altimetry sea level anomaly (SLA) data and PIRATA mooring station data. A regression analysis with the AVISO SLA data proved that the leading modes in the EM analysis are realistic. It also demonstrated that some reanalysis products might contain higher level of intrinsic noise than others. A quantitative correlation analysis indicates that the HC fields are more realistic in the EM analysis than in individual products, especially over the equatorial regions, with signals contributed from all ensemble members. A

  5. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-04-01

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  6. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2017-07-04

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  7. The Mesoscale Eddies and Kuroshio Transport in the Western North Pacific East of Taiwan from 8-year (2003-2010) Model Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-25

    the Navy Opera- tional Global Atmospheric Prediction System (Rosmond 1992). In the heat flux, solar radiation is retained separately , while the rest...in space and time. An oceanographic reanalysis product, on the other hand, is rarely available because global/re- gional ocean operational systems...10.1029/ 2005GL025416 Ko DS, Chao SY, Huang P, Lin SF (2009) Anomalous upwelling in Nan Wan: July 2008. Terr Atmos Ocean Sci 20(6):839–852. doi:10. 3319/TAO

  8. Higher-order factors of the big five model of personality: a reanalysis of Digman (1997).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutch, Christopher

    2005-02-01

    Based on the results from factor analyses conducted on 14 different data sets, Digman proposed a model of two higher-order factors, or metatraits, that subsumed the Big Five personality traits. In the current article, problems in Digman's analyses were explicated, and more appropriate analyses were then conducted using the same 14 correlation matrices from Digman's study. The resultant two-factor model produced improper solutions, poor model fit indices, or both, in almost all of the 14 data sets and thus raised serious doubts about the veracity of Digman's proposed model.

  9. Large-Scale Total Water Storage and Water Flux Changes over the Arid and Semiarid Parts of the Middle East from GRACE and Reanalysis Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forootan, E.; Safari, A.; Mostafaie, A.; Schumacher, M.; Delavar, M.; Awange, J. L.

    2017-05-01

    Previous studies indicate that water storage over a large part of the Middle East has been decreased over the last decade. Variability in the total (hydrological) water flux (TWF, i.e., precipitation minus evapotranspiration minus runoff) and water storage changes of the Tigris-Euphrates river basin and Iran's six major basins (Khazar, Persian, Urmia, Markazi, Hamun, and Sarakhs) over 2003-2013 is assessed in this study. Our investigation is performed based on the TWF that are estimated as temporal derivatives of terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products and those from the reanalysis products of ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land. An inversion approach is applied to consistently estimate the spatio-temporal changes of soil moisture and groundwater storage compartments of the seven basins during the study period from GRACE TWS, altimetry, and land surface model products. The influence of TWF trends on separated water storage compartments is then explored. Our results, estimated as basin averages, indicate negative trends in the maximums of TWF peaks that reach up to -5.2 and -2.6 (mm/month/year) over 2003-2013, respectively, for the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins, which are most likely due to the reported meteorological drought. Maximum amplitudes of the soil moisture compartment exhibit negative trends of -11.1, -6.6, -6.1, -4.8, -4.7, -3.8, and -1.2 (mm/year) for Urmia, Tigris-Euphrates, Khazar, Persian, Markazi, Sarakhs, and Hamun basins, respectively. Strong groundwater storage decrease is found, respectively, within the Khazar -8.6 (mm/year) and Sarakhs -7.0 (mm/year) basins. The magnitude of water storage decline in the Urmia and Tigris-Euphrates basins is found to be bigger than the decrease in the monthly accumulated TWF indicating a contribution of human water use, as well as surface and groundwater flow to the storage decline over the study area.

  10. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NARR dataset is an extension of the NCEP Global Reanalysis which is run over the North American Region. The NARR model uses the very high resolution NCEP Eta...

  11. Reanalysis of water and carbon cycle models at a critical zone observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO) is a forested, hill-slope catchment located in the temperate-climate of central Pennsylvania with an extensive network of ground-based instrumentation for model testing and development. In this paper we discuss the use of multi-state fi...

  12. High-resolution dynamical downscaling of re-analysis data over the Kerguelen Islands using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Ricardo; Martín-Torres, Javier

    2018-03-01

    We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the climate of the Kerguelen Islands (49° S, 69° E) and investigate its inter-annual variability. Here, we have dynamically downscaled 30 years of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over these islands at 3-km horizontal resolution. The model output is found to agree well with the station and radiosonde data at the Port-aux-Français station, the only location in the islands for which observational data is available. An analysis of the seasonal mean WRF data showed a general increase in precipitation and decrease in temperature with elevation. The largest seasonal rainfall amounts occur at the highest elevations of the Cook Ice Cap in winter where the summer mean temperature is around 0 °C. Five modes of variability are considered: conventional and Modoki El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Subtropical IOD (SIOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). It is concluded that a key mechanism by which these modes impact the local climate is through interaction with the diurnal cycle in particular in the summer season when it has a larger magnitude. One of the most affected regions is the area just to the east of the Cook Ice Cap extending into the lower elevations between the Gallieni and Courbet Peninsulas. The WRF simulation shows that despite the small annual variability, the atmospheric flow in the Kerguelen Islands is rather complex which may also be the case for the other islands located in the Southern Hemisphere at similar latitudes.

  13. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data

    OpenAIRE

    Bebber, Daniel P.; Castillo, ?ngela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate rean...

  14. Variations in Atmospheric Water Vapor as Seen in Satellite Data and Model Reanalysis Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Chang, Fong-Chiau; Suggs, Ronnie J.; Guillory, Anthony R.

    1998-01-01

    New data sets used to describe components of the hydrologic and energy cycles of the Earth system are currently being produced and disseminated through the NASA EOS DAACs and several data assimilation centers supported by such organizations as NASA and NOAA. These data sets incorporate hybrid data analysis schemes and portray satellite and radiosonde data combined in a diagnostic sense and in a forecast mode. There is a need to develop a better understanding of the accuracy and utility of these global, relatively long-term, datasets to describe components of the hydrologic cycle and to understand atmospheric moisture variability and its relation to climatological significant events Much progress has been made in the last ten years in the development of global atmospheric models and analysis of satellite data for global studies. The atmospheric models have improved in their ability to predict both short term and longer term weather events. This has been possible through better understanding of atmosphere dynamics and very rapid advances in computer technology. Over the same period, data assimilation methods have advanced and unconventional data sources such as aircraft and satellite data, drifting buoys, etc., can be assimilated at non-synaptic times. As a result of these improvements, comprehensive global atmospheric fields based on four-dimensional data assimilation methods now provide one of the most reliable methods for studying dynamical and physical behavior in the atmosphere.

  15. A reanalysis of football impact reconstructions for head kinematics and finite element modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Erin J; Gabler, Lee F; Good, Ann B; Funk, James R; Crandall, Jeff R; Panzer, Matthew B

    2018-03-14

    Head kinematics generated by laboratory reconstructions of professional football helmet impacts have been applied to computational models to study the biomechanics of concussion. Since the original publication of this data, techniques for evaluating accelerometer consistency and error correction have been developed. This study applies these techniques to the original reconstruction data and reanalyzes the results given the current state of concussion biomechanics. Consistency checks were applied to the sensor data collected in the head of each test dummy. Inconsistent data were corrected using analytical techniques, and head kinematics were recalculated from the corrected data. Reconstruction videos were reviewed to identify artefactual impacts during the reconstruction to establish the region of applicability for simulations. Corrected head kinematics were input into finite element brain models to investigate strain response to the corrected dataset. Multiple reconstruction cases had inconsistent sensor arrays caused by a problematic sensor; corrections to the arrays caused changes in calculated rotational head motion. These corrections increased median peak angular velocity for the concussion cases from 35.6 to 41.5 rad/s. Using the original kinematics resulted in an average error of 20% in maximum principal strain results for each case. Simulations of the reconstructions also demonstrated that simulation lengths less than 40 ms did not capture the entire brain strain response and under-predicted strain. This study corrects data that were used to determine concussion risk, and indicates altered head angular motion and brain strain response for many reconstructions. Conclusions based on the original data should be re-examined based on this new study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nord, Camilla L; Valton, Vincent; Wood, John; Roiser, Jonathan P

    2017-08-23

    Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered-some very seriously so-but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but potentially

  17. Inconsistencies between precipitation and streamflow data in the Mekong River Basin and the Need for reanalysis products in Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa-Cabral, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2006-12-01

    precipitation appears plausible at its native resolution (slightly more than one degree latitude-longitude in the Mekong), the resolution is too coarse to resolve the complex topography of the Mekong basin. We argue that a high quality reanalysis, at a spatial resolution which ideally would exceed that of the North American Regional Reanalysis (about 32 km) would be highly useful in improving understanding of runoff generation in the Mekong, and other important river basins in the region where in situ gauge networks are sparse.

  18. Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Christopher; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Su, Chun-Hsu; Jakob, Dörte; Kociuba, Greg; Eisenberg, Nathan; Steinle, Peter; Harris, Rebecca; Corney, Stuart; Love, Peter; Remenyi, Tomas; Chladil, Mark; Bally, John; Bindoff, Nathan

    2017-04-01

    , precipitation, evaporation, soil water, and energy fluxes. In this presentation, we report on the implementation of the Australia regional reanalysis and results from first stages of the project, with a focus on the Tasmanian subdomain. An initial benchmarking 1.5 km data set - referred to as the 'Initial Analysis' - has been constructed over the subdomains consisting of regridded and harmonised analysis and short-term forecast fields from the operational ACCESS-C model using the past 5 years (2011-2015) of archived data. Evaluation of the Initial Analysis against surface observations from automatic weather stations indicate changes in model skills over time that may be attributed to changes in NWP and assimilation systems, and model cycling frequency. Preliminary evaluations of the reanalysis across Tasmania and its inter-comparisons with the Initial Analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis products will be presented, including some features across the Tasmanian subdomain such as means and extremes of analysed weather variables. Finally, we describe a number of applications across Tasmania of the reanalysis of immediate interest to meteorologists, fire and landscape managers and other members of the emergency management community, including the use of the data to create post-processed fields such as soil dryness, tornados and fire danger indices for forest fire danger risk assessment, including a climatology of Continuous Haines Index.

  19. Seasonal cycle of volume transport through Kerama Gap revealed by a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-10

    Oceanography Division, Naval Research Laboratory, tennis Space Center, MS 39529, USA. Tel.: +2286884883. E-mail address: zhitao.yu.ctr@nrlssc.navy.mil (Z. Yu...of the observations (Na et al., 2014). The time frame spans the observational period, June 2009–June 2011. Table 1 Correlation coefficient between...transforms the results. The correlation coefficients between reanalysis and observed along Kerama Gap velocity are summarized in Table 1 for the two

  20. Response Surface Methodology Using a Fullest Balanced Model: A Re-Analysis of a Dataset in theKorean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheem, Sungsue; Rheem, Insoo; Oh, Sejong

    2017-01-01

    Response surface methodology (RSM) is a useful set of statistical techniques for modeling and optimizing responses in research studies of food science. In the analysis of response surface data, a second-order polynomial regression model is usually used. However, sometimes we encounter situations where the fit of the second-order model is poor. If the model fitted to the data has a poor fit including a lack of fit, the modeling and optimization results might not be accurate. In such a case, using a fullest balanced model, which has no lack of fit, can fix such problem, enhancing the accuracy of the response surface modeling and optimization. This article presents how to develop and use such a model for the better modeling and optimizing of the response through an illustrative re-analysis of a dataset in Park et al. (2014) published in the Korean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources .

  1. Using multi-year reanalysis-derived recharge rates to drive a groundwater model for the Lake Tana region of Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokou, Z.; Kheirabadi, M.; Nikolopoulos, E. I.; Moges, S. A.; Bagtzoglou, A. C.; Anagnostou, E. N.

    2017-12-01

    Ethiopia's high inter-annual variability in local precipitation has resulted in droughts and floods that stress local communities and lead to economic and food insecurity. Better predictions of water availability can supply farmers and water management authorities with critical guidance, enabling informed water resource allocation and management decisions that will in turn ensure food and water security in the region. The work presented here focuses on the development and calibration of a groundwater model of the Lake Tana region, one of the most important sub-basins of the Blue Nile River Basin. Groundwater recharge, which is the major groundwater source in the area, depends mainly on the seasonality of precipitation and the spatial variation in geology. Given that land based precipitation data are sparse in the region, two approaches for estimating groundwater recharge were used and compared that both utilize global atmospheric reanalysis driven by remote sensing datasets. In the first approach, the reanalysis precipitation dataset (ECMWF reanalysis adjusted based on GPCC) together with evapotranspiration and surface run-off estimates are used to calculate the groundwater recharge component using water budget equations. In the second approach, groundwater recharge estimates (subsurface runoff) are taken directly from a Land Surface model (FLDAS Noah), provided at a monthly time scale and 0.1˚ x 0.1˚ spatial resolution. The reanalysis derived recharge rates in both cases are incorporated into the groundwater model MODFLOW, which in combination with a Lake module that simulates the Lake water budget, offers a unique capability of improving the predictability of groundwater and lake levels in the Lake Tana basin. Model simulations using the two approaches are compared against in-situ observations of groundwater and lake levels. This modeling effort can be further used to explore climate variability effects on groundwater and lake levels and provide guidance to

  2. Production models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    The Project is co-financed with Nilpeter A/S and investigates the industrialization of build to order production. Project content: - Enterprise engineering - Specification processes - Mass Customization/ Build To Order - Knowledge/information management - Configuration - Supply Chain Management...

  3. A 3-D evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the greater European region using CALIOP/CALIPSO satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Benedetti, Angela; Zanis, Prodromos; Kourtidis, Konstantinos

    2016-04-01

    Significant amounts of dust are being transferred on an annual basis over the Mediterranean Basin and continental Europe from Northern Africa (Sahara Desert) and Middle East (Arabian Peninsula) as well as from other local sources. Dust affects a number of processes in the atmosphere modulating weather and climate also having an impact on human health and the economy. Therefore, the ability of simulating adequately the amount and optical properties of dust is essential. This work focuses on the evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the regions mentioned above. The evaluation procedure is based on pure dust satellite retrievals from CALIOP/CALIPSO that cover the period 2007-2012. The CALIOP/CALIPSO data utilized here come from an optimized retrieval scheme that was originally developed within the framework of the LIVAS (Lidar Climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for Space-Based LIDAR Simulation Studies) project. CALIOP/CALIPSO dust extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 532 nm are used for the validation of MACC natural aerosol extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 550 nm. Overall, it is shown in this work that space-based lidars may play a major role in the improvement of the MACC aerosol product. This research has been financed under the FP7 Programme MarcoPolo (Grand Number 606953, Theme SPA.2013.3.2-01).

  4. Toward a 35-years North American Precipitation and Surface Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasset, N.; Fortin, V.

    2017-12-01

    In support of the International Watersheds Initiative (IWI) of the International Joint Commission (IJC), a 35-years precipitation and surface reanalysis covering North America at a 3-hours and 15-km resolution is currently being developed at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC). A deterministic reforecast / dynamical downscaling approach is followed where a global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) is used as initial condition of the Global Environmental Multi-scale model (GEM). Moreover, the latter is coupled with precipitation and surface data assimilation systems, i.e. the Canadian Precipitation Analysis (CaPA) and the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS). While optimized to be more computationally efficient in the context of a reforecast experiment, all systems used are closely related to model versions and configurations currently run operationally at CMC, meaning they have undergone a strict and thorough validation procedure.As a proof of concept and in order to identify the optimal set-up before achieving the 35-years reanalysis, several configurations of the approach are evaluated for the years 2010-2014 using both standard CMC validation methodology as well as more dedicated scores such as comparison against the currently available products (North American Regional Reanalysis, MERRA-Land and the newly released ERA5 reanalysis). A special attention is dedicated to the evaluation of analysed variables, i.e. precipitation, snow depth, surface/ground temperature and moisture over the whole domain of interest. Results from these preliminary samples are very encouraging and the optimal set-up is identified. The coupled approach, i.e. GEM+CaPA/CaLDAS, always shows clear improvements over classical reforecast and dynamical downscaling where surface observations are present. Furthermore, results are inline or better than currently available products and the reference CMC operational approach that was operated from 2012 to 2016 (GEM 3.3, 10-km resolution). This

  5. Dynamic inundation mapping of Hurricane Harvey flooding in the Houston metro area using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, S. J.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, S.; Zhang, Y.; Seo, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was one of the most extreme weather events in Texas history and left significant damages in the Houston and adjoining coastal areas. To understand better the relative impact to urban flooding of extreme amount and spatial extent of rainfall, unique geography, land use and storm surge, high-resolution water modeling is necessary such that natural and man-made components are fully resolved. In this presentation, we reconstruct spatiotemporal evolution of inundation during Hurricane Harvey using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis. The two-dimensional urban flood model used is based on dynamic wave approximation and 10 m-resolution terrain data, and is forced by the radar-based multisensor quantitative precipitation estimates. The model domain includes Buffalo, Brays, Greens and White Oak Bayous in Houston. The model is simulated using hybrid parallel computing. To evaluate dynamic inundation mapping, we combine various qualitative crowdsourced images and video footages with LiDAR-based terrain data.

  6. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  7. Simulated convective systems using a cloud resolving model: Impact of large-scale temperature and moisture forcing using observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Hou, A.; Lin, X.

    2006-01-01

    The GCE (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble) model, which has been developed and improved at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center over the past two decades, is considered as one of the finer and state-of-the-art CRMs (Cloud Resolving Models) in the research community. As the chosen CRM for a NASA Interdisciplinary Science (IDS) Project, GCE has recently been successfully upgraded into an MPI (Message Passing Interface) version with which great improvement has been achieved in computational efficiency, scalability, and portability. By basically using the large-scale temperature and moisture advective forcing, as well as the temperature, water vapor and wind fields obtained from TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) field experiments such as SCSMEX (South China Sea Monsoon Experiment) and KWAJEX (Kwajalein Experiment), our recent 2-D and 3-D GCE simulations were able to capture detailed convective systems typical of the targeted (simulated) regions. The GEOS-3 [Goddard EOS (Earth Observing System) Version-3] reanalysis data have also been proposed and successfully implemented for usage in the proposed/performed GCE long-term simulations (i.e., aiming at producing massive simulated cloud data -- Cloud Library) in compensating the scarcity of real field experimental data in both time and space (location). Preliminary 2-D or 3-D pilot results using GEOS-3 data have generally showed good qualitative agreement (yet some quantitative difference) with the respective numerical results using the SCSMEX observations. The first objective of this paper is to ensure the GEOS-3 data quality by comparing the model results obtained from several pairs of simulations using the real observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis data. The different large-scale advective forcing obtained from these two kinds of resources (i.e., sounding observations and GEOS-3 reanalysis) has been considered as a major critical factor in producing various model results. The second objective of this paper is therefore to

  8. Evaluation of precipitation in observations, reanalysis and climate models over the Himalayas from an agricultural point of view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daloz, A. S.; Chakraborty, R.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

    2015-12-01

    The Himalayas support the agricultural and water resource needs of over 2 billion people. According to some reports the impacts of climate change in the region may be catastrophic so, there is an urgent need for better understanding the impact of climate change on this region, especially on agricultural production, which is the primary livelihood of the population. However, the region is known for its unique landscape and complicated biophysical and socioeconomic systems. This complexity is a source of difficulty for obtaining both reliable observations and realistic predictions of future climate in the region. The ultimate aim of our inter-disciplinary research project is to couple disparate climate and agro-ecosystem models to understand how future changes in precipitation may impact agriculture in the Himalayas. The project is divided into two parts: Quantify the response of precipitation to climate change in state-of-the-art climate model simulations, Evaluate the impact of projected future changes in precipitation on agricultural production with an agro-ecosystem model. For the first part of the project we evaluated the ability of climate models to represent the present climate of this region. Climate model output was compared against precipitation observations from ground stations, satellites, and atmospheric reanalyses to document the biases of the models and evaluate objectively the future changes in precipitation. After evaluating the biases of our models, climate model predictions of precipitation changes over the Himalayas were quantified. The models clearly show a significant increase in precipitation over a large part of the region, especially during the monsoon season and the season preceding the monsoon. The second component of the study seeks to introduce these precipitation changes into an agro-ecosystem model. This model, that contains multiple dynamic variables with regulate-able stochasticity and will allow us to visualize probable impacts of

  9. Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

  10. The NASA Reanalysis Ensemble Service - Advanced Capabilities for Integrated Reanalysis Access and Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    NASA's efforts to advance climate analytics-as-a-service are making new capabilities available to the research community: (1) A full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) comprising monthly means data from multiple reanalysis data sets, accessible through an enhanced set of extraction, analytic, arithmetic, and intercomparison operations. The operations are made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib; (2) A cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables. This near real-time capability enables advanced technologies like Spark and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files; and (3) A WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation systems such as ESGF. The Reanalysis Ensemble Service includes the following: - New API that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services with sample queries - A Docker-ready RES application to deploy across platforms - Extended capabilities that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, standard deviation, and ensemble averages - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses including basic sub-setting and arithmetic operations (e.g., avg, sum, max, min, var, count, anomaly) - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset in addition to, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NCEP CFSR, JMA JRA-55 and NOAA/ESRL 20CR… - A Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism designed for client use cases that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive scenarios and personalized project management - Supporting analytic services for NASA GMAO Forward Processing datasets - Basic uncertainty quantification services that combine heterogeneous ensemble products with comparative observational products (e

  11. Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis wind products with in situ wave glider wind observations in the Southern Ocean

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schmidt, KM

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Surface ocean wind datasets are required to be of high spatial and temporal resolution and high precision to accurately force or be assimilated into coupled atmosphere–ocean numerical models and to understand ocean–atmospheric processes. In situ...

  12. A 10-year global gridded Aerosol Optical Thickness Reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Zhang, J.; Westphal, D. L.; Campbell, J. R.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D.; Hyer, E. J.; Sessions, W.; Shi, Y.; Turk, J.

    2013-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need of a best-available fused product on a regular grid for numerous climate and applied applications. Remote sensing and modeling technologies have now advanced to a point where aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers. It is inevitable that, like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see heavy use in the near future. A first long term, 2003-2012 global 1x1 degree and 6-hourly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product has been generated. The goal of this effort is not only for climate applications, but to generate a dataset that can be used by the US Navy to understand operationally hindering aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and application of electro-optical technologies. The reanalysis utilizes Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled collection 5 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD with minor corrections from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRaditometer (MISR). A subset of this product includes Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar assimilation since its launch in mid-2006. Surface aerosol sources, including dust and smoke, in the aerosol model have been regionally tuned so that fine and coarse mode AOTs best match those resolve by ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT is then used to adjust other aerosol processes, eg., sources, dry deposition, etc. Aerosol wet deposition is constrained with satellite-retrieved precipitation. The final AOT reanalysis is shown to exhibit good agreement with AERONET. Here we review the development of the reanalysis and consider issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses. Considerations are also made for extending such work

  13. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Koller

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe here a new method for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. L* (pronounced L-star is directly proportional to the integral of the magnetic flux contained within the surface defined by a charged particle moving in the Earth's geomagnetic field. Under adiabatic changes to the geomagnetic field L* is a conserved quantity, while under quasi-adiabatic fluctuations diffusion (with respect to a particle's L* is the primary term in equations of particle dynamics. In particular the equations of motion for the very energetic particles that populate the Earth's radiation belts are most commonly expressed by diffusion in three dimensions: L*, energy (or momentum, and pitch angle (the dot product of velocity and the magnetic field vector. Expressing dynamics in these coordinates reduces the dimensionality of the problem by referencing the particle distribution functions to values at the magnetic equatorial point of a magnetic "drift shell" (or L-shell irrespective of local time (or longitude. While the use of L* aids in simplifying the equations of motion, practical applications such as space weather forecasting using realistic geomagnetic fields require sophisticated magnetic field models that, in turn, require computationally intensive numerical integration. Typically a single L* calculation can require on the order of 105 calls to a magnetic field model and each point in the simulation domain and each calculated pitch angle has a different value of L*. We describe here the development and validation of a neural network surrogate model for calculating L* in sophisticated geomagnetic field models with a high degree of fidelity at computational speeds that are millions of times faster than direct numerical field line mapping and integration. This new surrogate model has

  14. ENSO influence on the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone as derived from the satellite observations, reanalysis and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiaolu; Konopka, Paul; Ploeger, Felix; Tao, Mengchu; Bian, Jianchun; Mueller, Rolf

    2017-04-01

    El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The extremes of ENSO patterns have impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate. The ENSO activities typically show pronounced features in boreal winter time, but some prolonged events may last for months or years. In this study we analyze the influence of ENSO on the atmospheric composition in the tropical and extra-tropical UTLS region in the months following strong ENSO events. In particular, we are interested in the impact of ENSO on the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone. Using the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), we define two composites starting from strong El Nino and La Nina winters (|MEI|>0.9) and analyze the anomalies caused by them in the following months. To quantify the differences in dynamics, the velocity potential (VP) and the stream function (SF) are calculated based on ERA-Interim reanalysis from 1979 to 2015. SF shows that during winter the horizontal flow in the tropical UTLS is dominated by two equatorially symmetric anticyclones resembling the well-known Matsuno-Gill solution. In summer, the anticyclone in the North Hemisphere is shifted to the ASM region. VP shows that the centers of the divergent part of the flow lie in the West Tropical Pacific and Central Pacific for La Nina and El Nino winters, respectively. These centers move northwestwards during spring and summer. The anticyclone, subtropical jet and the divergent part of the flow after La Nina winters are significantly stronger than after El Nino winters. Based on the MLS measurements of CO, H2O and O3 from 2004 to 2015, we also discuss the respective anomalies at the tropopause level for the El Nino/La Nina composites. EL Nino composite of CO shows higher values in the tropical region not only during winter but also during spring and summer. La Nina composite of H2O shows low anomaly over Maritime Continent which spread over the whole tropics until summer. The H2O

  15. Climate Reanalysis: Progress and Future Prospects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ron

    2018-01-01

    Reanalysis is the process whereby an unchanging data assimilation system is used to provide a consistent reprocessing of observations, typically spanning an extended segment of the historical data record. The process relies on an underlying model to combine often-disparate observations in a physically consistent manner, enabling production of gridded data sets for a broad range of applications including the study of historical weather events, preparation of climatologies, business sector development and, more recently, climate monitoring. Over the last few decades, several generations of reanalyses of the global atmosphere have been produced by various operational and research centers, focusing more or less on the period of regular conventional and satellite observations beginning in the mid to late twentieth century. There have also been successful efforts to extend atmospheric reanalyses back to the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, using mostly surface observations. Much progress has resulted from (and contributed to) advancements in numerical weather prediction, especially improved models and data assimilation techniques, increased computing capacity, the availability of new observation types and efforts to recover and improve the quality of historical ones. The recent extension of forecast systems that allow integrated modeling of meteorological, oceanic, land surface, and chemical variables provide the basic elements for coupled data assimilation. This has opened the door to the development of a new generation of coupled reanalyses of the Earth system, or integrated Earth system analyses (IESA). Evidence so far suggests that this approach can improve the analysis of currently uncoupled components of the Earth system, especially at their interface, and lead to increased predictability. However, extensive analysis coupling as envisioned for IESA, while progressing, still presents significant challenges. These include model biases that can be

  16. Expanding the performance curve of different weather data sources for hydrologic modeling in central Texas: a comparison of ground observations and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as watershed model inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuka, D. R.; Collick, A.; Auerbach, D.; Kleinman, P. J. A.; Wagena, M. B.; Sommerlot, A.; Harmel, D.; Easton, Z. M.

    2015-12-01

    Obtaining location specific representative meteorological data can be difficult and time consuming, even though correctly representing the weather is critical to hydrological modeling and watershed management planning. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally-available records that offer a consistent baseline for assessments of candidate weather data, have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations, as well as have been demonstrated as a solution for ungaged tropical and semi-tropical montane basins. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall data density in USDA-ARS's Reisel experimental watershed. We compared model performance under alternative weather inputs: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) records, a standard public weather station dataset available from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN), and a the high density research quality dataset available from the USDA-ARS. Results show that utilizing the CFSR precipitation and temperature data to force a watershed model provides stream discharge simulations that are as good as or better than models forced using traditional weather gauging stations available from GHCN, especially when stations are more than 10-km from the watershed. These results further demonstrate that adding CFSR data to the suite of watershed modelling tools provides new opportunities for meeting the challenges of modelling ungauged watersheds and advancing real-time hydrological modelling.

  17. Development and evaluation of a high-resolution reanalysis of the East Australian Current region using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerry, Colette; Powell, Brian; Roughan, Moninya; Oke, Peter

    2016-10-01

    As with other Western Boundary Currents globally, the East Australian Current (EAC) is highly variable making it a challenge to model and predict. For the EAC region, we combine a high-resolution state-of-the-art numerical ocean model with a variety of traditional and newly available observations using an advanced variational data assimilation scheme. The numerical model is configured using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and takes boundary forcing from the BlueLink ReANalysis (BRAN3). For the data assimilation, we use an Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) scheme, which uses the model dynamics to perturb the initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions, such that the modelled ocean state better fits and is in balance with the observations. This paper describes the data assimilative model configuration that achieves a significant reduction of the difference between the modelled solution and the observations to give a dynamically consistent "best estimate" of the ocean state over a 2-year period. The reanalysis is shown to represent both assimilated and non-assimilated observations well. It achieves mean spatially averaged root mean squared (rms) residuals with the observations of 7.6 cm for sea surface height (SSH) and 0.4 °C for sea surface temperature (SST) over the assimilation period. The time-mean rms residual for subsurface temperature measured by Argo floats is a maximum of 0.9 °C between water depths of 100 and 300 m and smaller throughout the rest of the water column. Velocities at several offshore and continental shelf moorings are well represented in the reanalysis with complex correlations between 0.8 and 1 for all observations in the upper 500 m. Surface radial velocities from a high-frequency radar array are assimilated and the reanalysis provides surface velocity estimates with complex correlations with observed velocities of 0.8-1 across the radar footprint. A comparison with

  18. Reanalysis and External Validation of a Decision Tree Model for Detecting Unrecognized Diabetes in Rural Chinese Individuals

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, Zhong; Hua, Lin; Wang, Xu-Hong; Zhao, Dong; Yu, Cai-Guo; Ma, Ya-Hong; Zhao, Lei; Cao, Xi; Yang, Jin-Kui

    2017-01-01

    We reanalyzed previous data to develop a more simplified decision tree model as a screening tool for unrecognized diabetes, using basic information in Beijing community health records. Then, the model was validated in another rural town. Only three non-laboratory-based risk factors (age, BMI, and presence of hypertension) with fewer branches were used in the new model. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve (AUC) for detect...

  19. Reanalysis and External Validation of a Decision Tree Model for Detecting Unrecognized Diabetes in Rural Chinese Individuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhong Xin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We reanalyzed previous data to develop a more simplified decision tree model as a screening tool for unrecognized diabetes, using basic information in Beijing community health records. Then, the model was validated in another rural town. Only three non-laboratory-based risk factors (age, BMI, and presence of hypertension with fewer branches were used in the new model. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve (AUC for detecting diabetes were calculated. The AUC values in internal and external validation groups were 0.708 and 0.629, respectively. Subjects with high risk of diabetes had significantly higher HOMA-IR, but no significant difference in HOMA-B was observed. This simple tool will help general practitioners and residents assess the risk of diabetes quickly and easily. This study also validates the strong associations of insulin resistance and early stage of diabetes, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the current model in rural Chinese adult populations.

  20. Reanalysis and External Validation of a Decision Tree Model for Detecting Unrecognized Diabetes in Rural Chinese Individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin, Zhong; Hua, Lin; Wang, Xu-Hong; Zhao, Dong; Yu, Cai-Guo; Ma, Ya-Hong; Zhao, Lei; Cao, Xi; Yang, Jin-Kui

    2017-01-01

    We reanalyzed previous data to develop a more simplified decision tree model as a screening tool for unrecognized diabetes, using basic information in Beijing community health records. Then, the model was validated in another rural town. Only three non-laboratory-based risk factors (age, BMI, and presence of hypertension) with fewer branches were used in the new model. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and area under the curve (AUC) for detecting diabetes were calculated. The AUC values in internal and external validation groups were 0.708 and 0.629, respectively. Subjects with high risk of diabetes had significantly higher HOMA-IR, but no significant difference in HOMA-B was observed. This simple tool will help general practitioners and residents assess the risk of diabetes quickly and easily. This study also validates the strong associations of insulin resistance and early stage of diabetes, suggesting that more attention should be paid to the current model in rural Chinese adult populations.

  1. Re-analysis of tropospheric sulfate aerosol and ozone for the period 1980–2005 using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pozzoli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding historical trends of trace gas and aerosol distributions in the troposphere is essential to evaluate the efficiency of existing strategies to reduce air pollution and to design more efficient future air quality and climate policies. We performed coupled photochemistry and aerosol microphysics simulations for the period 1980–2005 using the aerosol-chemistry-climate model ECHAM5-HAMMOZ, to assess our understanding of long-term changes and inter-annual variability of the chemical composition of the troposphere, and in particular of ozone and sulfate concentrations, for which long-term surface observations are available. In order to separate the impact of the anthropogenic emissions and natural variability on atmospheric chemistry, we compare two model experiments, driven by the same ECMWF re-analysis data, but with varying and constant anthropogenic emissions, respectively. Our model analysis indicates an increase of ca. 1 ppbv (0.055 ± 0.002 ppbv yr−1 in global average surface O3 concentrations due to anthropogenic emissions, but this trend is largely masked by the larger O3 anomalies due to the variability of meteorology and natural emissions. The changes in meteorology (not including stratospheric variations and natural emissions account for the 75 % of the total variability of global average surface O3 concentrations. Regionally, annual mean surface O3 concentrations increased by 1.3 and 1.6 ppbv over Europe and North America, respectively, despite the large anthropogenic emission reductions between 1980 and 2005. A comparison of winter and summer O3 trends with measurements shows a qualitative agreement, except in North America, where our model erroneously computed a positive trend. Simulated O3 increases of more than 4 ppbv in East Asia and 5 ppbv in South Asia can not be corroborated with long-term observations. Global average sulfate surface

  2. Evaluation of river discharges from ensemble global water resources reanalysis in the Upper Blue Nile basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belay, Haileyesus; Moges, Semu; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil

    2017-04-01

    The increased capacity of observational datasets, both from in-situ and remote sensors, along with the continuous advancements in earth system models and data assimilation algorithms, have led to the generation of a number of water resources reanalysis products that are available at global scale and high spatial and temporal resolution. These products hold a great potential for studies and applications related to water resources but their level of accuracy and range of uncertainty needs to be investigated and understood. In this work, we analyze and evaluate the runoff estimates from a multi-model global water resources reanalysis (WRR) dataset that was recently produced within the framework of Earth2Observe project (http: //www.earth2observe.eu). Evaluation of the WRR reanalysis is based on the comparison of streamflows derived from the ensemble WRR and available in situ observations for a range of basin scales in the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. Analysis is carried out for different runoff properties (e.g. volume, maximum flows, duration curves) and for different temporal scales (daily, seasonal, annual) in order to evaluate the ability of WRR-based runoff estimates to represent various runoff characteristics. Results clearly indicate that the basin area and temporal scale are the most important controls on the performance of WRR streamflow simulations. Furthermore, results allow providing recommendations on application-specific use of WRR products and discussing potential bias correction techniques for improving river streamflow simulations.

  3. Approximate Reanalysis in Topology Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded; Bendsøe, Martin P.; Sigmund, Ole

    2009-01-01

    In the nested approach to structural optimization, most of the computational effort is invested in the solution of the finite element analysis equations. In this study, the integration of an approximate reanalysis procedure into the framework of topology optimization of continuum structures...

  4. Product and Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

    This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models....... These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

  5. Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived from Paleoclimate Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badgeley, J.; Steig, E. J.; Hakim, G. J.; Anderson, J.; Tardif, R.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling past ice-sheet behavior requires independent knowledge of past surface mass balance. Though models provide useful insight into ice-sheet response to climate forcing, if past climate is unknown, then ascertaining the rate and extent of past ice-sheet change is limited to geological and geophysical constraints. We use a novel data-assimilation framework developed under the Last Millennium Reanalysis Project (Hakim et al., 2016) to reconstruct past climate over ice sheets with the intent of creating an independent surface mass balance record for paleo ice-sheet modeling. Paleoclimate data assimilation combines the physics of climate models and the time series evidence of proxy records in an offline, ensemble-based approach. This framework allows for the assimilation of numerous proxy records and archive types while maintaining spatial consistency with known climate dynamics and physics captured by the models. In our reconstruction, we use the Community Climate System Model version 4, CMIP5 last millennium simulation (Taylor et al., 2012; Landrum et al., 2013) and a nearly complete database of ice core oxygen isotope records to reconstruct Holocene surface temperature and precipitation over the Greenland Ice Sheet on a decadal timescale. By applying a seasonality to this reconstruction (from the TraCE-21ka simulation; Liu et al., 2009), our reanalysis can be used in seasonally-based surface mass balance models. Here we discuss the methods behind our reanalysis and the performance of our reconstruction through prediction of unassimilated proxy records and comparison to paleoclimate reconstructions and reanalysis products.

  6. Product Platform Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus

    on the notion that reuse and encapsulation of platform elements are fundamental characteristics of a product platform. Reuse covers the desire to reuse and share certain assets across a family of products and/or across generations of products. Product design solutions and principles are often regarded...... as important assets in a product platform, yet activities, working patterns, processes and knowledge can also be reused in a platform approach. Encapsulation is seen as a process in which the different elements of a platform are grouped into well defined and self-contained units which are decoupled from each...... support decision makers during a product platform project. The reaction from stakeholders in the case companies indicates that the decision base is improved by means of visual models. Another finding is that the sometimes rather theoretical and intangible phenomena can be instantiated in models...

  7. Development studies towards an 11-year global gridded aerosol optical thickness reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Zhang, J.; Hogan, T. F.; Hyer, E. J.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D. A.; Shi, Y.; Campbell, J. R.; Rubin, J. I.; Sessions, W. R.; Turk, F. J.; Walker, A. L.

    2015-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need in numerous climate and applied applications for a fused product on a regular grid. Aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers, and like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see significant use in the near future. Here we present a standardized 2003-2013 global 1° × 1° and 6 hourly modal aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product. This dataset can be applied to basic and applied earth system science studies of significant aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and electro-optical propagation and sensor performance, among other uses. This paper describes the science of how to develop and score an aerosol reanalysis product. This reanalysis utilizes a modified Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled retrievals of AOT from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra. The aerosol source functions, including dust and smoke, were regionally tuned to obtain the best match between the model fine and coarse mode AOTs and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOTs. Other model processes, including deposition, were tuned to minimize the AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT. Aerosol wet deposition in the tropics is driven with satellite retrieved precipitation, rather than the model field. The final reanalyzed fine and coarse mode AOT at 550 nm is shown to have good agreement with AERONET observations, with global mean root mean square error around 0.1 for both fine and coarse mode AOTs. This paper includes a discussion of issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses, considerations for extending such a reanalysis outside of the NASA A-Train era, and examples of how the

  8. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  9. Maintaining Atmospheric Mass and Water Balance Within Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Todling, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    This report describes the modifications implemented into the Goddard Earth Observing System Version-5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) to maintain global conservation of dry atmospheric mass as well as to preserve the model balance of globally integrated precipitation and surface evaporation during reanalysis. Section 1 begins with a review of these global quantities from four current reanalysis efforts. Section 2 introduces the modifications necessary to preserve these constraints within the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) analysis procedure, and the Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) algorithm. Section 3 presents experiments quantifying the impact of the new procedure. Section 4 shows preliminary results from its use within the GMAO MERRA-2 Reanalysis project. Section 5 concludes with a summary.

  10. Status and Preliminary Evaluation for Chinese Re-Analysis Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    bin, zhao; chunxiang, shi; tianbao, zhao; dong, si; jingwei, liu

    2016-04-01

    Based on operational T639L60 spectral model, combined with Hybird_GSI assimilation system by using meteorological observations including radiosondes, buoyes, satellites el al., a set of Chinese Re-Analysis (CRA) datasets is developing by Chinese National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC) of Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA). The datasets are run at 30km (0.28°latitude / longitude) resolution which holds higher resolution than most of the existing reanalysis dataset. The reanalysis is done in an effort to enhance the accuracy of historical synoptic analysis and aid to find out detailed investigation of various weather and climate systems. The current status of reanalysis is in a stage of preliminary experimental analysis. One-year forecast data during Jun 2013 and May 2014 has been simulated and used in synoptic and climate evaluation. We first examine the model prediction ability with the new assimilation system, and find out that it represents significant improvement in Northern and Southern hemisphere, due to addition of new satellite data, compared with operational T639L60 model, the effect of upper-level prediction is improved obviously and overall prediction stability is enhanced. In climatological analysis, compared with ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE reanalyses, the results show that surface temperature simulates a bit lower in land and higher over ocean, 850-hPa specific humidity reflects weakened anomaly and the zonal wind value anomaly is focus on equatorial tropics. Meanwhile, the reanalysis dataset shows good ability for various climate index, such as subtropical high index, ESMI (East-Asia subtropical Summer Monsoon Index) et al., especially for the Indian and western North Pacific monsoon index. Latter we will further improve the assimilation system and dynamical simulating performance, and obtain 40-years (1979-2018) reanalysis datasets. It will provide a more comprehensive analysis for synoptic and climate diagnosis.

  11. Innovation Production Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamam N. Guseinova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the study of the models of production of innovations at enterprise and state levels. The shift towards a new technology wave induces a change in systems of division of labour as well as establishment of new forms of cooperation that are reflected both in theory and practice of innovation policy and management. Within the scope of the research question we have studied different generation of innovation process, starting with simple linear models - "technology push" and "market pull" - and ending with a complex integrated model of open innovations. There are two organizational models of innovation production at the enterprise level: start-ups in the early stages of their development and ambidextrous organizations. The former are prone to linear models of innovation process, while the latter create innovation within more sophisticated inclusive processes. Companies that effectuate reciprocal ambidexterity stand out from all the rest, since together with start-ups, research and development centres, elements of innovation infrastructure and other economic agents operating in the same value chain they constitute the core of most advanced forms of national innovation systems, namely Triple Helix and Quadruple Helix systems. National innovation systems - models of innovation production at the state level - evolve into systems with a more profound division of labour that enable "line production" of innovations. These tendencies are closely related to the advent and development of the concept of serial entrepreneurship that transforms entrepreneurship into a new type of profession. International experience proves this concept to be efficient in various parts of the world. Nevertheless, the use of above mentioned models and concepts in national innovation system should be justified by socioeconomic conditions of economic regions, since they determine the efficiency of implementation of certain innovation processes and

  12. Reanalysis comparisons of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric jets and multiple tropopauses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. L. Manney

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The representation of upper tropospheric–lower stratospheric (UTLS jet and tropopause characteristics is compared in five modern high-resolution reanalyses for 1980 through 2014. Climatologies of upper tropospheric jet, subvortex jet (the lowermost part of the stratospheric vortex, and multiple tropopause frequency distributions in MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, ERA-I (ERA-Interim; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, interim reanalysis, JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis, and CFSR (the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis are compared with those in MERRA-2. Differences between alternate products from individual reanalysis systems are assessed; in particular, a comparison of CFSR data on model and pressure levels highlights the importance of vertical grid spacing. Most of the differences in distributions of UTLS jets and multiple tropopauses are consistent with the differences in assimilation model grids and resolution – for example, ERA-I (with coarsest native horizontal resolution typically shows a significant low bias in upper tropospheric jets with respect to MERRA-2, and JRA-55 (the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis a more modest one, while CFSR (with finest native horizontal resolution shows a high bias with respect to MERRA-2 in both upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses. Vertical temperature structure and grid spacing are especially important for multiple tropopause characterizations. Substantial differences between MERRA and MERRA-2 are seen in mid- to high-latitude Southern Hemisphere (SH winter upper tropospheric jets and multiple tropopauses as well as in the upper tropospheric jets associated with tropical circulations during the solstice seasons; some of the largest differences from the other reanalyses are seen in the same times and places. Very good qualitative agreement among the reanalyses is seen between the large-scale climatological features in

  13. Product Knowledge Modelling and Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Y.; MacCallum, K. J.; Duffy, Alex

    1996-01-01

    .A scheme is presented in this paper to model, i.e. classify, structure and formalise the product knowledge for the purpose of supporting function-oriented design. The product design specification and four types of required attributes of a specific product have been identified to form the Specific Product......The term, Product Knowledge is used to refer to two related but distinct concepts; the knowledge of a specific product (Specific Product Knowledge) and the knowledge of a product domain (Product Domain Knowledge). Modelling and managing Product Knowlege is an essential part of carrying out design...... Knowledge involved in the product generation process and therefore modelled in a PDS unit and four viewpoint models. Further, product domain knowledge model consists of four types of basic product domain knowledge and product family knowledge. They are considered as necessary and sufficient to support...

  14. Ocean Monitoring Indicators for the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry derived from a high-resolution reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Bolzon, Giorgio; Salon, Stefano; Teruzzi, Anna; Lazzari, Paolo; Crise, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    In recent years the interest in multi-decadal reanalyses of the status of the Mediterranean marine ecosystem has been rising constantly, also in light of the need of information for a proper implementation of European directives (e.g. MSFD). State-of-art reanalyses of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry - being an optimal integration of multi-platforms data and numerical models - constitute an extremely relevant source of information in evaluating the ecosystem status at basin and sub-basin scale. Furthermore, they provide highly valuable data to be used as boundary conditions for local studies. The objective of this work is to produce sensible environmental indicators useful to characterize the environmental status of the Mediterranean starting from an upgraded high-resolution reanalysis of Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry delivered in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Services (CMEMS). The reanalysis was qualified by a comparison against several available data sets, in terms of the main surface and sub-surface biogeochemical essential climate variables (chlorophyll, carbon dioxide partial pressure, ocean acidity, nutrients, oxygen). The reanalysis outputs reproduced spatial patterns, seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability of the assessed variables, allowing for a proper description of recent trends and present status of the Mediterranean Sea biogeochemistry. Our results confirm the vision of the Mediterranean as a mainly oligotrophic ecosystem with the presence of significant biogeochemical gradients from the eastern to the western sub-basins (e.g. in chlorophyll, nutrients, primary production). Our reanalysis can be used to contribute estimating eutrophication MFSD descriptors, atmospheric carbon sequestration fluxes, first assessment of potential resources available for the higher trophic levels and more. Indeed, the reanalysis data set provides a suitable basis for the estimation of the so-called Ocean Monitoring Indicators

  15. Advanced Production Planning Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JONES,DEAN A.; LAWTON,CRAIG R.; KJELDGAARD,EDWIN A.; WRIGHT,STEPHEN TROY; TURNQUIST,MARK A.; NOZICK,LINDA K.; LIST,GEORGE F.

    2000-12-01

    >This report describes the innovative modeling approach developed as a result of a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project. The overall goal of this project was to provide an effective suite of solvers for advanced production planning at facilities in the nuclear weapons complex (NWC). We focused our development activities on problems related to operations at the DOE's Pantex Plant. These types of scheduling problems appear in many contexts other than Pantex--both within the NWC (e.g., Neutron Generators) and in other commercial manufacturing settings. We successfully developed an innovative and effective solution strategy for these types of problems. We have tested this approach on actual data from Pantex, and from Org. 14000 (Neutron Generator production). This report focuses on the mathematical representation of the modeling approach and presents three representative studies using Pantex data. Results associated with the Neutron Generator facility will be published in a subsequent SAND report. The approach to task-based scheduling described here represents a significant addition to the literature for large-scale, realistic scheduling problems in a variety of production settings.

  16. Reconstructing hydro-climatological data using dynamical downscaling of reanalysis products in data-sparse regions – Application to the Limpopo catchment in southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ditiro B. Moalafhi

    2017-08-01

    The model generally under-estimates temperature and over-estimates precipitation over the basin, although reasonably consistent with observations. The model does well in simulating observed sustained hydrological extremes as assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI although it consistently under-estimates the severity ofmoisture deficit for the wettest part of the year during the dry years. The basin's aridity index (I is above the severe drought threshold during summer and is more severe in autumn. This practically restricts rain-fed agriculture to around 3 months in a year over the basin. This study presents possible beneficial use of the downscaled simulations foroptimal hydrologic design and water resources planning in data scarce parts of the world.

  17. A reanalysis of resistive size effects in tungsten

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sambles, J.R.; Mundy, J.N.

    1983-01-01

    A reanalysis of available data on the influence of surface scattering upon the resistivity of high-purity tungsten is presented. It is shown that some of the data appear to fit quite well to Soffer's model of surface scattering. From this new analysis values for the product rhosub(infinity)lambdasub(infinity) (bulk resistivity times bulk mean free path) may be obtained lying in the range 1.0-1.7 fΩ m 2 . Early data, which could not be interpreted using Fuchs' theory of surface scattering, may now be explained and yield surface roughness ratios (ratio of root mean square height of deviations from the mean surface to the Fermi wavelength) of the order of 0.2-2.5, typical of the value expected for atomically smooth to atomically rough surfaces. However, more recent data violate Soffer's theory in a convincing fashion. They illustrate fully the severe dangers of using a theory to interpret data for which it is not at all applicable. The Fermi surface of tungsten by no means approximates a simple sphere (one of the basic assumptions of the Soffer model). Hence such a naive treatment as Fuchs' leads to meaningless parameters such as quoted above. This paper is presented as a warning to all experimentalists who attempt to interpret data from metals with complex Fermi surfaces in a simple-minded fashion (e.g. using Fuchs' model). (author)

  18. High-Resolution Regional Reanalysis in China: Evaluation of 1 Year Period Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Pan, Yinong; Wang, Shuyu; Xu, Jianjun; Tang, Jianping

    2017-10-01

    Globally, reanalysis data sets are widely used in assessing climate change, validating numerical models, and understanding the interactions between the components of a climate system. However, due to the relatively coarse resolution, most global reanalysis data sets are not suitable to apply at the local and regional scales directly with the inadequate descriptions of mesoscale systems and climatic extreme incidents such as mesoscale convective systems, squall lines, tropical cyclones, regional droughts, and heat waves. In this study, by using a data assimilation system of Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation, and a mesoscale atmospheric model of Weather Research and Forecast model, we build a regional reanalysis system. This is preliminary and the first experimental attempt to construct a high-resolution reanalysis for China main land. Four regional test bed data sets are generated for year 2013 via three widely used methods (classical dynamical downscaling, spectral nudging, and data assimilation) and a hybrid method with data assimilation coupled with spectral nudging. Temperature at 2 m, precipitation, and upper level atmospheric variables are evaluated by comparing against observations for one-year-long tests. It can be concluded that the regional reanalysis with assimilation and nudging methods can better produce the atmospheric variables from surface to upper levels, and regional extreme events such as heat waves, than the classical dynamical downscaling. Compared to the ERA-Interim global reanalysis, the hybrid nudging method performs slightly better in reproducing upper level temperature and low-level moisture over China, which improves regional reanalysis data quality.

  19. Reanalysis of galactic primary nucleosynthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Twarog, B.A.; Wheeler, J.C.

    1987-05-01

    Primary nucleosynthesis in the Galactic disk is reexamined in light of improved observational data for Mg in field stars and improved theoretical data in the form of stellar elemental yields and a higher C-12(alpha, gamma)O-16 reaction rate. It is concluded that the data for O, C, Fe, and Mg are consistent with a constant relative production rate for these elements over the lifetime of the disk in a standard infall model. The yield distribution is nonsolar. Additionally, any continuous mass function in which all stars over 12 solar masses explode both fails to meet the observational constraints on elemental production ratios and overproduces significant amounts of O for the most plausible mass function. Consideration of the probable uncertainties indicates that the discrepancy is real and casts doubt on the capability of current stellar nucleosynthesis theory to provide reliable constraints on stellar evolution, the history of the mass function, or models of galactic chemical evolution. 32 references.

  20. Diesel motor exhaust and lung cancer mortality: reanalysis of a cohort study in potash miners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möhner, Matthias; Kersten, Norbert; Gellissen, Johannes

    2013-02-01

    The aim of the reanalysis is to reassess lung cancer risk associated with occupational exposure to diesel motor exhaust in potash miners, while controlling for potential confounders such as smoking and previous occupational history. Our investigation is based on a cohort study of nearly 6,000 German potash miners, who were followed up from 1970 to 2001. The reanalysis also takes into account the employment periods before potash mining, in particular uranium mining. Different approaches (nested case-control study and Cox model) were used to adjust for confounding. The exposure estimates were recalculated, lagging the exposure by 5 years. Exposure groups were defined by tertiles of cumulative respirable elemental carbon (REC) exposure estimates and occupational categories, where exposure was estimated originally by representative measurements of total carbon for different occupations. The highest REC concentration was measured for production workers, about twice as much as for other occupations. The reanalysis revealed that while about 4 % of all study subjects had worked earlier in uranium mines, 10.3 % of later lung cancer cases did so. Although their absolute number was small, the corresponding relative risk estimator was significantly elevated. Our analysis did not show any notable association between cumulative REC exposure and lung cancer risk. Introducing cumulative REC exposure as a continuous variable into the conditional logistic regression model yielded an odds ratio of OR = 1.04 [0.70-1.53]95 % adjusted for smoking and previous employment. The study results give no evidence for an association between REC exposure and lung cancer risk. Only for very high cumulative dose, corresponding to at least 20 years of exposure in the production area, some weak hints for a possible risk increase could be detected. The study underlines the importance of assessing the entire occupational history in occupational studies, especially if the supposed dose

  1. Development and Assessment of the Sand Dust Prediction Model by Utilizing Microwave-Based Satellite Soil Moisture and Reanalysis Datasets in East Asian Desert Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunglok Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For several decades, satellite-based microwave sensors have provided valuable soil moisture monitoring in various surface conditions. We have first developed a modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD dataset by utilizing Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2, and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS soil moisture datasets in order to estimate dust outbreaks over desert areas of East Asia. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer- (MODIS- based AOD products were used as reference datasets to validate the modeled AOD (MA. The SMOS-based MA (SMOS-MA dataset showed good correspondence with observed AOD (R-value: 0.56 compared to AMSR2- and GLDAS-based MA datasets, and it overestimated AOD compared to observed AOD. The AMSR2-based MA dataset was found to underestimate AOD, and it showed a relatively low R-value (0.35 with respect to observed AOD. Furthermore, SMOS-MA products were able to simulate the short-term AOD trends, having a high R-value (0.65. The results of this study may allow us to acknowledge the utilization of microwave-based soil moisture datasets for investigation of near-real time dust outbreak predictions and short-term dust outbreak trend analysis.

  2. Exploring hydro-meteorological drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa (1979-2014) using remote sensing and reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awange, J. L.; Khandu; Schumacher, M.; Forootan, E.; Heck, B.

    2016-08-01

    Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological droughts over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are explored based on total water storage (TWS) changes derived from time-variable gravity field solutions of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE, 2002-2014), together with those simulated by Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA, 1980-2014). These hydrological extremes are then related to meteorological drought events estimated from observed monthly precipitation products of Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC, 1979-2010) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 1998-2014). The major focus of this contribution lies on the application of spatial Independent Component Analysis (sICA) to extract distinguished regions with similar rainfall and TWS with similar overall trend and seasonality. Rainfall and TWS are used to estimate Standard Precipitation Indices (SPIs) and Total Storage Deficit Indices (TSDIs), respectively that are employed to characterize frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological droughts over GHA. Significant positive (negative) changes in monthly rainfall over Ethiopia (Sudan) between 2002 and 2010 leading to a significant increase in TWS over the central GHA region were noted in both MERRA and GRACE TWS (2002-2014). However, these trends were completely reversed in the long-term (1980-2010) records of rainfall (GPCC) and TWS (MERRA). The four independent hydrological sub-regions extracted based on the sICA (i.e., Lake Victoria Basin, Ethiopia-Sudanese border, South Sudan, and Tanzania) indicated fairly distinct temporal patterns that matched reasonably well between precipitation and TWS changes. While meteorological droughts were found to be consistent with most previous studies in all sub-regions, their impacts are clearly observed in the TWS changes resulting in multiple years of extreme hydrological droughts. Correlations between SPI and TSDI were found to be significant over Lake Victoria Basin, South

  3. NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project is using a state-of-the-art analysis/forecast system to perform data assimilation using past data from 1979 through near present....

  4. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R.; Collins, W.; Deaven, D.; Gandin, L.; Iredell, M.; Saha, S.; White, G.; Woollen, J.; Zhu, Y.; Leetmaa, A.; Reynolds, B.; Chelliah, M.; Ebisuzaki, W.; Higgins, W.; Janowiak, J.; Mo, K. C.; Ropelewski, C.; Wang, J.; Jenne, Roy; Joseph, Dennis

    1996-03-01

    The NCEP and NCAR are cooperating in a project (denoted "reanalysis") to produce a 40-year record of global analyses of atmospheric fields in support of the needs of the research and climate monitoring communities. This effort involves the recovery of land surface, ship, rawinsonde, pibal, aircraft, satellite, and other data; quality controlling and assimilating these data with a data assimilation system that is kept unchanged over the reanalysis period 1957-96. This eliminates perceived climate jumps associated with changes in the data assimilation system.The NCEP/NCAR 40-yr reanalysis uses a frozen state-of-the-art global data assimilation system and a database as complete as possible. The data assimilation and the model used are identical to the global system implemented operationally at the NCEP on 11 January 1995, except that the horizontal resolution is T62 (about 210 km). The database has been enhanced with many sources of observations not available in real time for operations, provided by different countries and organizations. The system has been designed with advanced quality control and monitoring components, and can produce 1 mon of reanalysis per day on a Cray YMP/8 supercomputer. Different types of output archives are being created to satisfy different user needs, including a "quick look" CD-ROM (one per year) with six tropospheric and stratospheric fields available twice daily, as well as surface, top-of-the-atmosphere, and isentropic fields. Reanalysis information and selected output is also available on-line via the Internet (http//:nic.fb4.noaa.gov:8000). A special CD-ROM, containing 13 years of selected observed, daily, monthly, and climatological data from the NCEP/NCAR Re-analysis, is included with this issue. Output variables are classified into four classes, depending on the degree to which they are influenced by the observations and/or the model. For example, "C" variables (such as precipitation and surface fluxes) are completely determined

  5. SST algorithms in ACSPO reanalysis of AVHRR GAC data from 2002-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrenko, B.; Ignatov, A.; Kihai, Y.; Zhou, X.; Stroup, J.

    2014-05-01

    In response to a request from the NOAA Coral Reef Watch Program, NOAA SST Team initiated reprocessing of 4 km resolution GAC data from AVHRRs flown onboard NOAA and MetOp satellites. The objective is to create a longterm Level 2 Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO) SST product, consistent with NOAA operations. ACSPO-Reanalysis (RAN) is used as input in the NOAA geo-polar blended Level 4 SST and potentially other Level 4 SST products. In the first stage of reprocessing (reanalysis 1, or RAN1), data from NOAA-15, -16, -17, -18, -19, and Metop-A and -B, from 2002-present have been processed with ACSPO v2.20, and matched up with quality controlled in situ data from in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam) version 1. The ~12 years time series of matchups were used to develop and explore the SST retrieval algorithms, with emphasis on minimizing spatial biases in retrieved SSTs, close reproduction of the magnitudes of true SST variations, and maximizing temporal, spatial and inter-platform stability of retrieval metrics. Two types of SST algorithms were considered: conventional SST regressions, and recently developed incremental regressions. The conventional equations were adopted in the EUMETSAT OSI-SAF formulation, which, according to our previous analyses, provide relatively small regional biases and well-balanced combination of precision and sensitivity, in its class. Incremental regression equations were specifically elaborated to automatically correct for model minus observation biases, always present when RTM simulations are employed. Improved temporal stability was achieved by recalculation of SST coefficients from matchups on a daily basis, with a +/-45 day window around the current date. This presentation describes the candidate SST algorithms considered for the next round of ACSPO reanalysis, RAN2.

  6. A System of Oceanic Reanalysis (SOR) fot the Nordic Seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pnyushkov, A.

    2009-04-01

    A system of oceanic reanalysis of the Nordic seas (Norwegian, Greenland and Barents seas) directed to the investigations of long period changes in the oceanic climate of the Arctic sub-polar seas was developed. The system of oceanic reanalysys (SOR) includes hybrid coordinate 22-th level ocean model HYCOM [Bleck,2002] and modern oceanographic data assimilation technique based on spectral nudging method. A series of test experiments was carried out and optimal parameters for assimilation routine were choused. These parameters take into account the accuracy of spatial restoring by means objective analysis procedure and phase distortion in modeling fields during monotonous assimilation of monthly distributions. On the basis of modeling results a set of monthly mean hydrological distributions of thermohaline parameters was created for the Nordic seas that was used for climatic field compilations on the standard levels for period 1957-1990. The data of reanalysis system projections allow us to restore the information about structure and dynamic of oceanographic fields for the periods and areas with a small number of direct measurements, for example East-Greenland currents area, north and north-east parts of the Barents sea. A series of additional experiments with SOR were performed directed to the simple assimilation of sea ice concentration data. A significant improvement of the system of objectively analyzed field preparation was done during 2008 including additional validation procedure of gridded arrays with using the direct data of oceanographic stations. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant 07-05-00393).

  7. PRODUCT STRUCTURE DIGITAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.M. Sineglazov

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available  Research results of representation of product structure made by means of CADDS5 computer-aided design (CAD system, Product Data Management Optegra (PDM system and Product Life Cycle Management Wind-chill system (PLM, are examined in this work. Analysis of structure component development and its storage in various systems is carried out. Algorithms of structure transformation required for correct representation of the structure are considered. Management analysis of electronic mockup presentation of the product structure is carried out for Windchill system.

  8. AVHRR GAC SST Reanalysis Version 1 (RAN1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Ignatov

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In response to its users’ needs, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA initiated reanalysis (RAN of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC; 4 km sea surface temperature (SST data employing its Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO retrieval system. Initially, AVHRR/3 data from five NOAA and two Metop satellites from 2002 to 2015 have been reprocessed. The derived SSTs have been matched up with two reference SSTs—the quality controlled in situ SSTs from the NOAA in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC L4 SST analysis—and analyzed in the NOAA SST Quality Monitor (SQUAM online system. The corresponding clear-sky ocean brightness temperatures (BT in AVHRR bands 3b, 4 and 5 (centered at 3.7, 11, and 12 µm, respectively have been compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model simulations in another NOAA online system, Monitoring of Infrared Clear-sky Radiances over Ocean for SST (MICROS. For some AVHRRs, the time series of “AVHRR minus reference” SSTs and “observed minus model” BTs are unstable and inconsistent, with artifacts in the SSTs and BTs strongly correlated. In the official “Reanalysis version 1” (RAN1, data from only five platforms—two midmorning (NOAA-17 and Metop-A and three afternoon (NOAA-16, -18 and -19—were included during the most stable periods of their operations. The stability of the SST time series was further improved using variable regression SST coefficients, similarly to how it was done in the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder version 5.2 (PFV5.2 dataset. For data assimilation applications, especially those blending satellite and in situ SSTs, we recommend bias-correcting the RAN1 SSTs using the newly developed sensor-specific error statistics (SSES, which are reported in the product files. Relative performance of RAN1 and PFV5.2 SSTs is discussed. Work is underway to improve the calibration of AVHRR/3s and

  9. Model checking sum and product

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ditmarsch, H; Ruan, H; Verbrugge, L.C.; Zhang, S.; Jarvis, R.

    2005-01-01

    We model the well-known Sum-and-Product problem in a modal logic, and verify its solution in a model checker. The modal logic is public announcement logic. The riddle is then implemented and its solution verified in the epistemic model checker DEMO.

  10. Efficacy of Interventions with Caregivers: A Reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlatch, Carol J.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Presents reanalysis of previously reported study (Zarit et al.,1987) with family caregivers (n=113) of dementia patients using the method of prediction analysis. Compared with subjects on a waiting list or enrolled in support groups, caregivers in individual and family counseling were more likely to have successful outcomes. Recommends previous…

  11. European oil product supply modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saint-Antonin, V.

    1998-01-01

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author)

  12. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), for 1979 to Present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Project is a reanalysis of historical observations using a 32-km version of the National Centers for Environmental...

  13. MASS CUSTOMIZATION and PRODUCT MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten; Malis, Martin

    2003-01-01

    to the product. Through the application of a mass customization strategy, companies have a unique opportunity to create increased customer satisfaction. In a customized production, knowledge and information have to be easily accessible since every product is a unique combination of information. If the dream......When dealing with complex product models, efficient knowledge distribution is essential to obtain success. This paper describes how product models can be applied to support the knowledge distribution. The change towards individualization will radically affect the knowledge application in relation...... of a customized alternative instead of a uniform mass-produced product shall become a reality, then the cross-organizational efficiency must be kept at a competitive level. This is the real challenge for mass customization. A radical restructuring of both the internal and the external knowledge management systems...

  14. Rainy Days in the New Arctic: A Comprehensive Look at Precipitation from 8 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisvert, L.; Webster, M.; Petty, A.; Markus, T.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation in the Arctic plays an important role in the fresh water budget, and is the primary control of snow accumulation on sea ice. However, Arctic precipitation from reanalysis is highly uncertain due to differences in the atmospheric physics and use/approaches of data assimilation and sea ice concentrations across the different products. More specifically, yearly cumulative precipitation in some regions can vary by 100-150 mm across reanalyses. This creates problems for those modeling snow depth on sea ice, specifically for use in deriving sea ice thickness from satellite altimetry. In recent years, this new Arctic has become warmer and wetter, and evaporation from the ice-free ocean has been increasing, which leads to the question: is more precipitation falling and is more of this precipitation rain? This could pose a big problem for model and remote sensing applications and studies those modeling snow accumulation because rain events will can melt the existing snow pack, reduce surface albedo, and modify the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux via snow densification. In this work we compare precipitation (both snow and rain) from 8 different reanalysis: MERRA, MERRA2, NCEP-R1, NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, ERA-5, ASR and JRA-55. We examine the annual, seasonal, and regional differences and compare with buoy data to assess discrepancies between products during observed snowfall and rainfall events. Magnitudes and frequencies of these precipitation events are evaluated, as well as the "residual drizzle" between reanalyzes. Lastly, we will look at whether the frequency and magnitude of "rainy days" in the Arctic have been changing over recent decades.

  15. Performance and quality assessment of the global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis GLORYS2V4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Greiner, Eric; Drévillon, Marie; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Régnier, Charly; Desportes, Charles; Le Galloudec, Olivier; Bricaud, Clement; Drillet, Yann; Hernandez, Fabrice; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to give an overview of the recent upgrade of GLORYS2 (version 4 and GLORYS2V4 hereafter), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at Mercator Ocean that covers the altimetry era (1993-2015) in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS; http://marine.copernicus.eu/). The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (¼° horizontal resolution and 75 vertical levels) with the NEMO model and driven at the surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The reanalysis system uses a multi-data and multivariate reduced order Kalman filter based on the singular extended evolutive Kalman (SEEK) filter formulation together with a 3D-VAR large scale bias correction. The assimilated observations are along-track satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity. With respect to the previous version (GLORYS2V3), GLORYS2V4 contains a number of improvements. In particular: a) new initial temperature and salinity conditions derived from EN4 data base with a better mass equilibrium with altimetry, b) the use of the updated delayed mode CORA in situ observations from CMEMS, c) a new hybrid Mean Dynamical Topography (MDT) for the assimilation scheme referenced over the 1993-2013 period, d) a better observation operator for altimetry observations for the data assimilation scheme: e) A correction of large scale ERA-Interim atmospheric surface (precipitations and radiative) fluxes as in GLORYS2V3 but towards new satellite data set f) an update of the climatological runoff data base by using the latest version of Dai's 2009 data set for the global ocean together with better account of freshwater fluxes from polar ice sheet's glaciers. The presentation will show that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects such as biases and root mean squared error and, especially in representing

  16. Evaluation of reanalysis datasets against observational soil temperature data over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai; Zhang, Jingyong

    2018-01-01

    Soil temperature is a key land surface variable, and is a potential predictor for seasonal climate anomalies and extremes. Using observational soil temperature data in China for 1981-2005, we evaluate four reanalysis datasets, the land surface reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim/Land), the second modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), and version 2 of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.0), with a focus on 40 cm soil layer. The results show that reanalysis data can mainly reproduce the spatial distributions of soil temperature in summer and winter, especially over the east of China, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Owing to the influence of precipitation on soil temperature, the four datasets perform better in winter than in summer. The ERA-Interim/Land and GLDAS-2.0 produce spatial characteristics of the climatological mean that are similar to observations. The interannual variability of soil temperature is well reproduced by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset in summer and by the CFSR dataset in winter. The linear trend of soil temperature in summer is well rebuilt by reanalysis datasets. We demonstrate that soil heat fluxes in April-June and in winter are highly correlated with the soil temperature in summer and winter, respectively. Different estimations of surface energy balance components can contribute to different behaviors in reanalysis products in terms of estimating soil temperature. In addition, reanalysis datasets can mainly rebuild the northwest-southeast gradient of soil temperature memory over China.

  17. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujiwara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

  18. Re-analysis of martian gully orientation and slope for comparison with climate model predictions of freeze-thaw and dry-ice sublimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Susan; Harrison, Tanya; Lewis, Stephen; Balme, Matthew; Soare, Richard; Britton, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    Gullies on Mars are kilometre-scale landforms, comprising an erosional alcove and channel and a terminal debris apron/fan. These landforms are similar to features on Earth carved by the flow of liquid water, or by the action of water rich debris flows. The majority gullies on Mars are believed to be (at most) ˜5 Ma old and both erosion and deposition within these features have been observed within the last 10 years of orbital observations. At present liquid water is not thermodynamically stable at the martian surface and many of the recent changes in surface morphology occur during winter and early spring, when temperatures are too low for even metastable liquid water to be produced. Therefore, researchers have proposed an alternative mechanism for gully-formation - the sublimation of solid CO2, which is deposited on the maritan surface every winter. Previous studies have revealed that gully-density and orientation varies systematically with latitude - a fact that led to the development of many climate-based hypotheses for their formation. Here, we use the global database of martian gullies and extract the orientation and slope-angle of gully-hosting-slopes. We find that gully-orientation is more even strongly controlled by latitude than previous studies, where more sparse data were used. From ˜30-40° latitude in both hemispheres, gullies are almost never found on equator-facing slopes, and polewards of 40° gullies have a tendency to be located on equator-facing slopes. We use a 1D version of the LMD Mars climate model physics to simulate surface temperature on slopes up to 35° , oriented to face north or south, for all latitudes (5° spacing), and for orbital obliquities of 5-55° . We otherwise use current orbital conditions (ellipticity, date of perihelion) and we use a constant thermal inertia of the substrate of 1000 Jm-2K-1s-1/2and a bare soil albedo of 0.2. We extracted two pieces of information from a complete annual cycle: (i) The number of hours

  19. A Novel Reanalysis Dataset for Improving Seasonal Snowpack Characterization: Application to the Sierra Nevada (USA) Over the Landsat 5 Record (1985-2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margulis, S. A.; Cortés, G.; Girotto, M.; Durand, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Highly variable spatial and temporal patterns in snow properties are the norm in complex terrain, yet most mountain regions remain significantly under-sampled with respect to in situ data. We argue that significant strides in our understanding of snow processes in montane regions can be made using a regional reanalysis approach that merges information from uncertain model estimates and globally available remote sensing measurements. While many large-scale reanalysis datasets (e.g. NARR, NCEP/NCAR, MERRA, etc.) exist, their coarse spatial resolution and modeling/assimilation approaches are generally insufficient and/or inaccurate for direct application to analysis of snow processes in remote complex mountainous terrain. The newly developed state-of-the-art snow water equivalent (SWE) reanalysis approach presented in this paper is focused on snow and is based on the leveraging of long-term Landsat fractional snow-covered area (fSCA) datasets together with existing meteorological reanalysis products and snow modeling, merging all information streams within a data assimilation framework. The method is applied over the Sierra Nevada (USA) for the Landsat 5 record (1985-2011). The resolution (daily, 90-meter), temporal extent (27 years), and accuracy (mean and root-mean-squared errors less than 3 and 14 cm respectively and correlation greater than 0.94 compared with in situ SWE observations) provide a unique dataset for investigating snow processes. Preliminary analysis has focused on the peak SWE climatology over the reanalysis period. The pixel-wise peak SWE volume over the domain was found to be 19.9 km3 on average with a range of 9.8-35.8 km3. The 27-year climatology for range-wide peak SWE was found to be 16.4 km3 and occurred on 28 March. The results show that the assumption that 01 April SWE is representative of the peak range-wide SWE can lead to significant underestimation both on average (16%) and on an inter-annual basis (up to 47%). The reanalysis is being

  20. The MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis, 1980 Onward. Part I: System Description and Data Assimilation Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randles, C. A. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; da Silva, A. M. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Buchard, V. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland; Colarco, P. R. [Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Darmenov, A. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Govindaraju, R. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; Smirnov, A. [Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; NASA Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland; Holben, B. [NASA Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland; Ferrare, R. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; Hair, J. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; Shinozuka, Y. [Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Petaluma, California; NASA Ames Research Center Cooperative for Research in Earth Science and Technology, Moffett Field, California; Flynn, C. J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-09-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) updates NASA’s previous satellite era (1980 – onward) reanalysis system to include additional observations and improvements to the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model. As a major step towards a full Integrated Earth Systems Analysis (IESA), in addition to meteorological observations, MERRA-2 now includes assimila-tion of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from various ground- and space-based remote sensing platforms. Here, in the first of a pair of studies, we document the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation, including a description of the prognostic model (GEOS-5 coupled to the GOCART aerosol module), aerosol emissions, and the quality control of ingested observations. We provide initial validation and evaluation of the analyzed AOD fields using independent observations rom ground, aircraft, and shipborne instruments. We demonstrate the pos-itive impact of the AOD assimilation on simulated aerosols by comparing MERRA-2 aerosol fields to an identical control simulation that does not in-clude AOD assimilation. Having shown the AOD evaluation, we take a first look at aerosol-climate interactions by examining the shortwave, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect. In our companion paper, we evaluate and validate available MERRA-2 aerosol properties not directly impacted by the AOD assimilation (e.g. aerosol vertical distribution and absorption). Importantly, while highlighting the skill of the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation products, both studies point out caveats that must be considered when using this new reanalysis product for future studies of aerosols and their interactions with weather and climate.

  1. Reanalysis of Tyrannosaurus rex Mass Spectra.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bern, Marshall; Phinney, Brett S; Goldberg, David

    2009-09-01

    Asara et al. reported the detection of collagen peptides in a 68-million-year-old Tyrannosaurus rex bone by shotgun proteomics. This finding has been called into question as a possible statistical artifact. We reanalyze Asara et al.'s tandem mass spectra using a different search engine and different statistical tools. Our reanalysis shows a sample containing common laboratory contaminants, soil bacteria, and bird-like hemoglobin and collagen.

  2. Reanalysis of Tyrannosaurus rex Mass Spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bern, Marshall; Phinney, Brett S.; Goldberg, David

    2009-01-01

    Asara et al. reported the detection of collagen peptides in a 68-million-year-old T. rex bone by shotgun proteomics. This finding has been called into question as a possible statistical artifact. We reanalyze Asara et al.'s tandem mass spectra using a different search engine and different statistical tools. Our reanalysis shows a sample containing common laboratory contaminants, soil bacteria, and bird-like hemoglobin and collagen. PMID:19603827

  3. Product Tax Modelling in INFORGE

    OpenAIRE

    Mönnig, Anke

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the application of INFORGE as an analyzing tool for fiscal policy shocks is introduced by using the example of taxes on products. In recent times, variations of tax rates on product taxes have become rather popular because it is a simple method to consolidate state budget. A detailed modelling of taxes on products is important for further two reasons: (i) they are an important component for the transition from demand at purchasers’ prices to demand at basic prices. (ii) Taxes o...

  4. Geophysical Global Modeling for Extreme Crop Production Using Photosynthesis Models Coupled to Ocean SST Dipoles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change appears to have manifested itself along with abnormal meteorological disasters. Instability caused by drought and flood disasters is producing poor harvests because of poor photosynthesis and pollination. Fluctuations of extreme phenomena are increasing rapidly because amplitudes of change are much greater than average trends. A fundamental cause of these phenomena derives from increased stored energy inside ocean waters. Geophysical and biochemical modeling of crop production can elucidate complex mechanisms under seasonal climate anomalies. The models have progressed through their combination with global climate reanalysis, environmental satellite data, and harvest data on the ground. This study examined adaptation of crop production to advancing abnormal phenomena related to global climate change. Global environmental surface conditions, i.e., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. Basic streams of the concepts of modeling rely upon continental energy flow and carbon circulation among crop vegetation, land surface atmosphere combining energy advection from ocean surface anomalies. Global environmental surface conditions, e.g., vegetation, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature observed by satellites, enable global modeling of crop production and monitoring. The method of validating the modeling relies upon carbon partitioning in biomass and grains through carbon flow by photosynthesis using carbon dioxide unit in photosynthesis. Results of computations done for this study show global distributions of actual evaporation, stomata opening, and photosynthesis, presenting mechanisms related to advection effects from SST anomalies in the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian oceans on global and continental croplands. For North America, climate effects appear clearly in severe atmospheric phenomena, which have caused drought and forest fires

  5. Reanalysis Data Evaluation to Study Temperature Extremes in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulgina, T. M.; Gordov, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    Ongoing global climate changes are strongly pronounced in Siberia by significant warming in the 2nd half of 20th century and recent extreme events such as 2010 heat wave and 2013 flood in Russia's Far East. To improve our understanding of observed climate extremes and to provide to regional decision makers the reliable scientifically based information with high special and temporal resolution on climate state, we need to operate with accurate meteorological data in our study. However, from available 231 stations across Siberia only 130 of them present the homogeneous daily temperature time series. Sparse, station network, especially in high latitudes, force us to use simulated reanalysis data. However those might differ from observations. To obtain reliable information on temperature extreme "hot spots" in Siberia we have compared daily temperatures form ERA-40, ERA Interim, JRA-25, JRA-55, NCEP/DOE, MERRA Reanalysis, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX gridded datasets with observations from RIHMI-WDC/CDIAC dataset for overlap period 1981-2000. Data agreement was estimated at station coordinates to which reanalysis data were interpolated using modified Shepard method. Comparison of averaged over 20 year annual mean temperatures shows general agreement for Siberia excepting Baikal region, where reanalyses significantly underestimate observed temperature behavior. The annual temperatures closest to observed one were obtained from ERA-40 and ERA Interim. Furthermore, t-test results show homogeneity of these datasets, which allows one to combine them for long term time series analysis. In particular, we compared the combined data with observations for percentile-based extreme indices. In Western Siberia reanalysis and gridded data accurately reproduce observed daily max/min temperatures. For East Siberia, Lake Baikal area, ERA Interim data slightly underestimates TN90p and TX90p values. Results obtained allows regional decision-makers to get required high spatial resolution (0,25°×0

  6. Syntactic features in reanalysis: positive and negative symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fodor, J D; Inoue, A

    2000-01-01

    Meng and Bader have presented evidence that a Case conflict is a more effective cue for garden-path reanalysis than a number conflict is, for German wh-sentences with subject-object ambiguities. The preferred first-pass analysis has the wh-trace in subject position, although object position is correct. In a speeded grammaticality judgment task, perceivers accepted Case-disambiguated examples more often and more rapidly than number-disambiguated examples, although comprehension questions indicated that both were eventually understood correctly. For ungrammatical sentences, a Case mismatch error resulted in more false positive grammaticality judgments than a number mismatch error. We offer an explanation for why Case and number features differ in these two ways in their effects on sentence processing. We propose, within the Diagnosis Model of garden-path processing, that reanalysis triggered by a Case mismatch guides the parser more effectively toward the correct structure. Case is a positive symptom, which carries information about the new structure that must be built. By contrast, a number mismatch is a negative symptom; it invalidates the incorrect structure without showing how to rebuild it. This difference in the transparency of garden-path repair can also account for the greater overacceptance of Case-disambiguated ungrammatical sentences. The speeded grammaticality judgment task is designed to encourage hasty responses. Usually, these are hasty rejections of garden path sentences that, on calmer reflection, the parser would find acceptable. Conversely, over-hasty acceptance could occur if some initial progress is made in resolving a grammatical problem. Thus, a higher rate of false positives on ungrammaticals is to be expected where reanalysis proceeds successfully for a while before blocking.

  7. Minimizing Reanalysis Jumps Due to New Observing Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Kalnay, E.; Chen, J.

    2014-12-01

    A major problem with reanalyses has been the presence of jumps in the climatology associated with changes in the observing system. These jumps became especially obvious when satellites were first introduced in 1979. After 1979, however, during the "satellite era" jumps have continued to appear whenever a new observing system was introduced. To explore this problem, we develop and test new methodologies to minimize these reanalysis jumps in the reanalyses time series due to new observing systems. We first study a state-of-the-art reanalysis, NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA thereafter). Analysis increments from two 2-year analyses with SSM/I (referred to as MERRA) or without SSM/I (referred to as NoSSMI), are compared and their climatological differences are defined as correction terms. The correction terms are then introduced into the tendency equation of the forecast model, i.e., GEOS-5. The debiased reanalysis without SSM/I observations shows improvements in almost all fields, even in precipitation field that is generally considered to be uncertain on all time and space scales, but the correction is underestimated by about a factor of 2. We believe that this is because the correction terms defined here do not take into account the nonlinear interactions between the temperature and humidity fields observed by SSM/I, which would introduce accumulated errors during the 2-year experiment period. This deficiency can be corrected by doing the No-SSMI analysis using a MERRA background, as in the method of Danforth et al. (2007) We test the new correction method in a simpler data assimilation system, SPEEDY-LETKF because with our limited computational resource it is infeasible to apply this method to the complex MERRA system. The new method defines the correction terms by calculating the difference of analysis increments from the following two analyses, 1) assimilating both RAOB and AIRS observations, named RaobAirs, and 2

  8. Skill and global trend analysis of soil moisture from reanalysis and microwave remote sensing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albergel, C.; Dorigo, W.A.; Reichle, R.H.; Balsamo, G.; de Rosnay, P.; Munoz-Sabater, J.; Isaksen, I; de Jeu, R.A.M.; Wagner, W.W.

    2014-01-01

    In situ soil moisture measurements from 2007 to 2010 for 196 stations from five networks across the world (United States, France, Spain, China, and Australia) are used to determine the reliability of three soil moisture products: (i) a revised version of the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim;

  9. Product State Modelling based on a Meta Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Sørensen, Christian; Langer, Gilad

    1999-01-01

    ) is a product model that contains continuously updated data regarding the outcome of the production processes. The main contribution of this paper is a definition and a description of a Production Meta Product State Model (Production Meta PSM), using the Unified Modelling Language (UML). The meta model......As products often deviate from their original design and specifications when being produced, adjustments of the product or process are required in order to meet specifications. A prerequisite for this adjustment, is appropriate and effectively collected shop floor data. The Product State Model (PSM...... incorporates a set of characteristics associated to the (1) scope or application domain of the PSM, (2) the artefact or product, and (3) the events transforming the product and trigging product state changes. Moreover, the paper provides guidelines for a specialisation of the meta model with respect...

  10. Development of a production meta Product State Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Sørensen, Christian; Langer, Gilad

    1999-01-01

    ) is a product model that contains continuously updated data regarding the outcome of the production processes. The main contribution of this paper is a definition and a description of a Production Meta Product State Model (Production Meta PSM), using the Unified Modelling Language (UML). The meta model......As products often deviate from their original design and specifications when being produced, adjustments of the product or process are required in order to meet specifications. A prerequisite for this adjustment, is appropriate and effectively collected shop floor data. The Product State Model (PSM...... incorporates a set of characteristics associated to the (1) scope or application domain of the PSM, (2) the artefact or product, and (3) the events transforming the product and trigging product state changes. Moreover, the paper provides guidelines for a specialisation of the meta model with respect...

  11. Validation and uncertainty analysis for monthly and extreme precipitation in the ERA-20C reanalysis based on the WZN in-situ measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustemeier, Elke; Ziese, Markus; Raykova, Kristin; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Schneider, Udo; Finger, Peter; Becker, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The proper representation of precipitation, in particular extreme precipitation, in global reanalyses is still challenging. This paper focuses on the potential of the ERA-20C centennial reanalysis to reproduce precipitation events. The global ERA-20C Reanalysis has been developed within the projects ERA-CLIM and its successor ERA-CLIM2 with the aim of a multi-decadal reanalysis of the global climate system. One of the objectives of ERA-CLIM2 is to provide useful information about the uncertainty of the various parameters. Since precipitation is a prognostic variable, it allows for independent validation by in-situ measurements. For this purpose, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) operated by the DWD has compared the ERA-20C Reanalysis with the GPCC observational products "Full Data Monthly Version 7" (FDM-V7) and "Full Data Daily Version 1" (FDD-V1). ERA-20C is based on the ECMWF prediction model IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of approximately 125 km and covers the 111 years from 1900 to 2010. The GPCC FDM-V7 raster data product, on the other hand, includes the global land surface in-situ measurements between 1901 and 2013 (Schneider et al., 2014) and the FDD-V1 raster data product covers daily precipitation from 1988 to 2013 with daily resolution. The most suitable resolution of 1° was used to validate ERA-20C. For the spatial and temporal validation of the ERA-20C Reanalysis, global temporal scores were calculated on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. These include e.g. monthly contingency table scores, correlation or climate change indices (ETCCDI) for precipitation to determine extreme values and their temporal change (Peterson et al., 2001, Appendix A). Not surprisingly, the regions with the strongest differences are also those with data scarcity, mountain regions with their luv and lee effects or monsoon areas. They all show a strong systematic difference and breaks within the time series. Differences between ERA-20C and

  12. A model for optimizing the production of pharmaceutical products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevena Gospodinova

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The problem associated with the optimal production planning is especially relevant in modern industrial enterprises. The most commonly used optimality criteria in this context are: maximizing the total profit; minimizing the cost per unit of production; maximizing the capacity utilization; minimizing the total production costs. This article aims to explore the possibility for optimizing the production of pharmaceutical products through the construction of a mathematical model that can be viewed in two ways – as a single-product model and a multi-product model. As an optimality criterion it is set the minimization of the cost per unit of production for a given planning period. The author proposes an analytical method for solving the nonlinear optimization problem. An optimal production plan of Tylosin tartrate is found using the single-product model.

  13. The MACC reanalysis: an 8 yr data set of atmospheric composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Inness

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a horizontal resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gas analysis fields to document the data set and to give a first indication of its quality. Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions. Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozonesondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most seasons and regions. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozonesondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area-averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi-sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent. NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in northern and southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons. Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are assimilated. It shows good agreement with

  14. Alignment of Product Models and Product State Models - Integration of the Product Lifecycle Phases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Kirkby, Lars Phillip; Vesterager, Johan

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integration of the Product Model (PM) and the Product State Model (PCM). Focus is on information exchange from the PSM to the PM within the manufacturing of a single ship. The paper distinguishes between information and knowledge integration. The paper...

  15. Product Family Modelling for Manufacturing Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kaj Asbjørn; Petersen, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

    2011-01-01

    dependent on the specific assembly structure of the configured product, i.e. the combination of modules. In this paper, issues of how to create manufacturing structures and related planning data in product family models are presented. Primarily, the more complicated multi-level manufacturing structures......To enable product configuration of a product family, it is important to develop a model of the selected product family. From such a model, an often performed practice is to make a product configurator from which customers can specify individual products from the family. To get further utilisation...... of the product family model, however, the model should be enriched with data for planning and execution of the manufacturing processes. The idea is that, when any individual product is specified using the product configurator, a product model can be extracted with all data necessary for planning...

  16. Comparison of TOPEX/Poseidon Sea Level and Linear Model Results forced by Various Wind Products for the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackert, Eric C.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to compare TOPEX/Posaidon (T/P) sea level with sea level results from linear ocean model experiments forced by several different wind products for the tropical Pacific. During the period of this study (October 1992 - October 1995), available wind products include satellite winds from the ERS-1 scatterometer product of [HALP 97] and the passive microwave analysis of SSMI winds produced using the variational analysis method (VAM) of [ATLA 91]. In addition, atmospheric GCM winds from the NCEP reanalysis [KALN 96], ECMWF analysis [ECMW94], and the Goddard EOS-1 (GEOS-1) reanalysis experiment [SCHU 93] are available for comparison. The observed ship wind analysis of FSU [STRI 92] is also included in this study. The linear model of [CANE 84] is used as a transfer function to test the quality of each of these wind products for the tropical Pacific. The various wind products are judged by comparing the wind-forced model sea level results against the T/P sea level anomalies. Correlation and RMS difference maps show how well each wind product does in reproducing the T/P sea level signal. These results are summarized in a table showing area average correlations and RMS differences. The large-scale low-frequency temporal signal is reproduced by all of the wind products, However, significant differences exist in both amplitude and phase on regional scales. In general, the model results forced by satellite winds do a better job reproducing the T/P signal (i.e. have a higher average correlation and lower RMS difference) than the results forced by atmospheric model winds.

  17. The economic production lot size model with several production rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. The production rates and their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all production rates...

  18. NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRV2)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire...

  19. NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2c)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRV2c)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the...

  20. Efficient reanalysis techniques for robust topology optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded; Sigmund, Ole; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov

    2012-01-01

    The article focuses on the reduction of the computational effort involved in robust topology optimization procedures. The performance of structures designed by means of topology optimization may be seriously degraded due to fabrication errors. Robust formulations of the optimization problem were...... shown to yield optimized designs that are tolerant with respect to such manufacturing uncertainties. The main drawback of such procedures is the added computational cost associated with the need to evaluate a set of designs by performing multiple finite element analyses. In this article, we propose...... efficient robust topology optimization procedures based on reanalysis techniques. The approach is demonstrated on two compliant mechanism design problems where robust design is achieved by employing either a worst case formulation or a stochastic formulation. It is shown that the time spent on finite...

  1. Extending product modeling methods for integrated product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonev, Martin; Wörösch, Michael; Hauksdóttir, Dagný

    2013-01-01

    Despite great efforts within the modeling domain, the majority of methods often address the uncommon design situation of an original product development. However, studies illustrate that development tasks are predominantly related to redesigning, improving, and extending already existing products...

  2. On the Reprocessing and Reanalysis of Observations for Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, Michael G.; Kennedy, John; Dee, Dick; Allan, R.; O'Neill, Alan

    2013-01-01

    The long observational record is critical to our understanding of the Earths climate, but most observing systems were not developed with a climate objective in mind. As a result, tremendous efforts have gone into assessing and reprocessing the data records to improve their usefulness in climate studies. The purpose of this paper is to both review recent progress in reprocessing and reanalyzing observations, and to summarize the challenges that must be overcome in order to improve our understanding of climate and variability. Reprocessing improves data quality through more scrutiny and improved retrieval techniques for individual observing systems, while reanalysis merges many disparate observations with models through data assimilation, yet both aim to provide an climatology of Earth processes. Many challenges remain, such as tracking the improvement of processing algorithms and limited spatial coverage. Reanalyses have fostered significant research, yet reliable global trends in many physical fields are not yet attainable, despite significant advances in data assimilation and numerical modeling. Oceanic reanalyses have made significant advances in recent years, but will only be discussed here in terms of progress toward integrated Earth system analyses. Climate data sets are generally adequate for process studies and large-scale climate variability. Communication of the strengths, limitations and uncertainties of reprocessed observations and reanalysis data, not only among the community of developers, but also with the extended research community, including the new generations of researchers and the decision makers is crucial for further advancement of the observational data records. It must be emphasized that careful investigation of the data and processing methods are required to use the observations appropriately.

  3. A grand model for chemical product design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fung, Ka Y.; Ng, Ka M.; Zhang, Lei

    2016-01-01

    , ingredients and structure. Market and competitive analysis, government policies and regulations have to be explicitly considered in product design. All these considerations are accounted for in the Grand Product Design Model, which consists of a process model, a property model, a quality model, a cost model......Chemical engineering has been expanding its focus from primarily business-to-business products (B2B) to business-to-consumer (B2C) products. The production of B2B products generally emphasizes on process design and optimization, whereas the production of B2C products focuses on product quality...... product composition changes with market conditions. Another is a hand lotion that illustrates how product quality affects the profit.(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  4. Modelling and using product architectures in mechatronic product development

    OpenAIRE

    Bruun, Hans Peter Lomholt; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    2012-01-01

    The objective for the paper is to determine the role of a product architecture modelling tool to support communication and to form the basis for developing and maintaining product structures for improving development practices of complex products. This paper contains descriptions, observations, and lessons learned from a case study in which the author tested a modelling tool to represent a product’s architecture during product development in a larger Danish company. The reasons leading to the...

  5. A procedure for Building Product Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars

    1999-01-01

    activities. A basic assumption is that engineers have to take the responsability for building product models to be used in their domain. To do that they must be able to carry out the modeling task on their own without any need for support from computer science experts. This paper presents a set of simple......The application of product modeling in manufacturing companies raises the important question of how to model product knowledge in a comprehensible and efficient way. An important challenge is to qualify engineers to model and specify IT-systems (product models) to support their specification......, easily adaptable concepts and methods from data modeling (object oriented analysis) and domain modeling (product modeling). The concepts are general and can be used for modeling all types of specifications in the different phases in the product life cycle. The modeling techniques presented have been...

  6. Small oilfield integrated production management model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilović Dušan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper is presented the concept of integrated oil production management model. The model's main objective is to provide more efficient tool for oil production process management in terms of the technological and economical aspects. Integrated oil production management model implies multidisciplinary approach which connects oil reservoir development and production with application of risk analysis. Model's task is to simulate behavior of the whole production system, enabling overcoming the weaknesses of conventional deterministic analysis and significantly enhancing oil production, as well as an investment decision making. In the article is presented shortly the application of integrated oil production management model at the oilfield 'K'. The ultimate goal was techno-economic analysis of managing production process, i.e. determination of production economic limit based on production history data, decline analysis and operating costs.

  7. Modelling Product Families for Product Configuration Systems with Product Variant Master

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hvam, Lars; Haug, Anders

    2010-01-01

    -cards for modelling and visualising the parts and properties of a complete product family. The modelling techniques include: Customer, engineering and part views on the product assortment to model the properties, functions and structure of the product family. This also makes it possible to map the links between......This article presents an evaluation of applying a suggested method for modelling product families for product configuration based on theory for modelling mechanical products,systems theory and object-oriented modelling. The modelling technique includes a so-called product variant master and CRC...... the three views. Modelling of characteristics of the product variants in a product family Modelling of constraints between parts in the product family Visualisation of the entire product family on a poster e.g. 1x2 meters The product variant master and CRC-cards are means to bridge the gap between domain...

  8. Impact of different reanalysis data on WRF dynamical downscaling over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Danlian; Gao, Shibo

    2018-02-01

    High-resolution simulations were conducted over China during 2000-2014 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Final Analysis (FNL) and ERA-interim reanalysis data. ERA-interim showed better agreement with observed temperature and precipitation than FNL. In general, WRF downscaling resulted in a more reliable spatial distribution of temperature than FNL, but not better than ERA-interim. For precipitation, ERA-interim performed the best, while WRF produced a wet bias in southeastern and southwestern China. A better spatial distribution and annual cycle were achieved by WRF in most of the subregions compared with FNL. In the simulation of extreme precipitation, WRF captured the main features of the extreme indices, and the spatial pattern correlations were higher than those for FNL. The simulation of precipitation and extreme precipitation was sensitive to the different reanalysis data boundaries, where significant differences occurred. The precipitation and extreme precipitation of WRF forced by ERA-interim were relatively better than those forced by FNL. This suggests a positive influence of the lateral boundary conditions of ERI in improving the WRF dynamical downscaling capabilities. However, compared with the reanalysis data itself, the improvements in the WRF simulation forced by FNL were more obvious than those forced by ERA-interim. This indicates that greater improvements can be made to the downscaling skill of the WRF forced by the FNL reanalysis data than to that forced by the ERA-interim data.

  9. Can reanalysis datasets describe the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jian; Huang, Dan-Qing; Yan, Pei-Wen; Huang, Ying; Kuang, Xue-Yuan

    2017-10-01

    The persistent temperature and precipitation extremes may bring damage to the economy and human due to their intensity, duration and areal coverage. Understanding the quality of reanalysis datasets in descripting these extreme events is important for detection, attribution and model evaluation. In this study, the performances of two reanalysis datasets [the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and Interim ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim)] in reproducing the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes in China are evaluated. For the persistent temperature extremes, the two datasets can better capture the intensity indices than the frequency indices. The increasing/decreasing trend of persistent warm/cold extremes has been reasonably detected by the two datasets, particularly in the northern part of China. The ERA-Interim better reproduces the climatology and tendency of persistent warm extremes, while the 20CR has better skill to depict the persistent cold extremes. For the persistent precipitation extremes, the two datasets have the ability to reproduce the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation. The two datasets largely underestimate the maximum consecutive dry days over the northern part of China, while overestimate the maximum consecutive wet days over the southern part of China. For the response of the precipitation extremes against the temperature variations, the ERA-Interim has good ability to depict the relationship among persistent precipitation extremes, local persistent temperature extremes, and global temperature variations over specific regions.

  10. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers a...... in relation to an ITQ system, including concentration, specialisation, market activity and price changes. Finally, plausible consequences of exogenous chocks and changes in management practice in the form of mesh size increases are considered....... via individual learning and adjustments in output mix. All the papers included in Part II: Modelling and Evaluating Fishermen’s Behaviour consider factors influencing fishermen’s behaviour. Knowledge about these factors is important to give a correct description of fishermen’s behaviour. However....... They concern the ability to learn best-practice (catch-up) and the ability to change the input and output composition (mix). The framework is then adapted to a dataset from the Danish fishery. Not surprisingly, the gains rise with increased behavioural flexibility. Under the most restrictive assumptions...

  11. Spatiotemporal Evaluation of Reanalysis and In-situ Surface Air Temperature over Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfaye, T.

    2017-12-01

    Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye*1, C.T. Dhanya 2,and A.K. Gosain3 1Research Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 2Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India 3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi-110016, India, *e-mail: tewodros2002@gmail.com Abstract: Water resources management and modelling studies are often constrained by the scarcity of observed data, especially of the two major variables i.e., precipitation and temperature. Modellers, hence, rely on reanalysis datasets as a substitute; though its performance heavily vary depending on the data availability and regional characteristics. The present study aims at examining the ability of frequently used reanalysis datasets in capturing the spatiotemporal characteristics of maximum and minimum surface temperatures over Ethiopia and to highlight the biases, if any, in these over Ethiopian region. We considered ERA-Interim, NCEP 2, MERRA and CFSR reanalysis datasets and compared these with temperature observations from 15 synoptic stations spread over Ethiopia. In addition to the long term averages and annual cycle, a critical comparison of various extreme indices such as diurnal temperature range, warm days, warm nights, cool days, cool nights, summer days and tropical nights are also undertaken. Our results indicate that, the performance of CFSR followed by NCEP 2 is better in capturing majority of the aspects. ERA-Interim suffers a huge additive bias in the simulation of various aspects of minimum temperature in all the stations considered; while its performance is better for maximum temperature. The inferior performance of ERA-Interim is noted to be only because of the difficulty in simulating minimum temperature. Key words: ERA Interim; NCEP Reanalysis; MERRA; CFSR; Diurnal temperature range; reanalysis performance.

  12. Use Of EOS-AURA Observation In The MERRA-2 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawson, Steven; Wargan, Krzysztof; Coy, Lawrence L.; McCarty, Will

    2014-01-01

    Meteorological reanalyses provide multi-year gridded datasets that describe the evolution of the atmosphere. Such products use a data assimilation system, comprising of an atmospheric model, a broad suite of observations, and an analysis system that optimally combines the model forecast with the observations, using an algorithm that includes information about model and data accuracy. The mixture of observations is of central importance to the quality of the assimilated datasets. The Modern-era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) included constraints on the thermal structure of the middle atmosphere from nadir sounders on the NOAA polar-orbiting platforms (Stratospheric Sounding Units and Advanced Microwave Sounding Units). These instruments have peak sensitivities that occur well below the stratopause. As such, the radiance measurements do not provide strong constraints on stratopause temperature. The new MERRA-2 reanalysis is using EOS-MLS temperature retrievals after they are available: it will be demonstrated that these data lead to a more realistic stratopause structure in MERRA-2 than in MERRA. Similarly, the work demonstrates the improvements in lower stratospheric ozone in MERRA-2 than in MERRA, for the period when EOS-MLS ozone data are assimilated. This improvement occurs because of the ozone profile information offered by MLS in the low stratosphere, in contrast to the SBUV/2 data used for the rest of MERRA-2. The impacts of choosing to use the EOS-MLS datasets are discussed in context of the continuity of the data record in MERRA- 2.

  13. Modelling and using product architectures in mechatronic product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Hans Peter Lomholt; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    The objective for the paper is to determine the role of a product architecture modelling tool to support communication and to form the basis for developing and maintaining product structures for improving development practices of complex products. This paper contains descriptions, observations...... product system, will lead to better decision making. Moreover, it is discussed how the sometimes intangible product structures within a architecture can be visually modeled based on the assumption that knowledge about a product’s architecture has to be tangibly instantiated, in order for people......, and lessons learned from a case study in which the author tested a modelling tool to represent a product’s architecture during product development in a larger Danish company. The reasons leading to the use of the specific model and it’s terminology is described and illustrated. The paper supports two...

  14. Modeling Consumer Learning from Online Product Reviews

    OpenAIRE

    Yi Zhao; Sha Yang; Vishal Narayan; Ying Zhao

    2013-01-01

    We propose a structural model to study the effect of online product reviews on consumer purchases of experiential products. Such purchases are characterized by limited repeat purchase behavior of the same product item (such as a book title) but significant past usage experience with other products of the same type (such as books of the same genre). To cope with the uncertainty in quality of the product item, we posit that consumers may learn from their experience with the same type of product...

  15. Runoff simulation using the North American regional reanalysis data set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rasmussen, P.; Kim, S.J.; Moore, A.; Choi, W.

    2008-01-01

    In part due to concerns about the impact of climate change, there has been an increased interest in hydrological modelling of watersheds in Canada. Most of Canada is sparsely populated and a recurrent problem is the lack of quality weather data that are often not available at the sites of interest. Continuous hydrologic models require input of temperature and precipitation as a minimum, and often additional information such as solar radiation and humidity. It is not uncommon that such information must be obtained by interpolating information from weather stations located far outside the watershed. The difficulty in obtaining good calibration results is obvious in such cases. The recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data set has been found to be in reasonable agreement with surface observations. NARR surface data, including those commonly required in hydrologic models, are available on a 32 km by 32 km grid which is appropriate for hydrologic modelling. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether hydrologic models for selected watersheds in Central Canada can be adequately calibrated using NARR data rather than conventional station information. For the specific case studies considered here, it is found that calibration with NARR weather information is quite acceptable and similar to what can be obtained using interpolated weather station data. (author)

  16. A procedure for building product models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Malis, Martin

    2001-01-01

    This article presents a procedure for building product models to support the specification processes dealing with sales, design of product variants and production preparation. The procedure includes, as the first phase, an analysis and redesign of the business processes, which are to be supported...... with product models. The next phase includes an analysis of the product assortment, and the set up of a so-called product master. Finally the product model is designed and implemented using object oriented modelling. The procedure is developed in order to ensure that the product models constructed are fit...... for the business processes they support, and properly structured and documented, in order to facilitate that the systems can be maintained continually and further developed. The research has been carried out at the Centre for Industrialisation of Engineering, Department of Manufacturing Engineering, Technical...

  17. The Mediterranean interannual variability in MEDRYS, a Mediterranean Sea reanalysis over 1992-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beuvier, Jonathan; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Greiner, Eric; Alias, Antoinette; Arsouze, Thomas; Benkiran, Mounir; Béranger, Karine; Drillet, Yann; Sevault, Florence; Somot, Samuel

    2015-04-01

    The French research community on the Mediterranean Sea and the French operational ocean forecasting center Mercator Océan are gathering their skills and expertises in physical oceanography, ocean modelling, atmospheric forcings and data assimilation, to carry out a MEDiterranean Sea ReanalYsiS (MEDRYS) at high resolution for the period 1992-2013. The reanalysis is used to have a realistic description of the ocean state over the recent decades and it will help to understand the long-term water cycle over the Mediterranean basin in terms of variability and trends, contributing thus to the HyMeX international program. The ocean model used is NEMOMED12 [Lebeaupin Brossier et al., 2011, Oc. Mod., 2012, Oc. Mod.; Beuvier et al., 2012a, JGR, 2012b, Mercator Newsl.], a Mediterranean configuration of NEMO [Madec and the NEMO Team, 2008], with a 1/12° (about 7 km) horizontal resolution and 75 vertical z-levels with partial steps. It is forced by the 3-hourly atmospheric fluxes coming from an ALADIN-Climate simulation at 12 km of resolution [Herrmann et al., 2011, NHESS], driven by the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis. The exchanges with the Atlantic Ocean are performed through a buffer zone, with a damping on 3D theta-S and on sea level towards the ORA-S4 oceanic reanalysis [Balmaseda et al., 2012, QJRMS]. This model configuration is used to carry a 34-year free simulation over the period 1979-2013. This free simulation is the initial state of the reanalysis in October 1992. It is also used to compute anomalies from which the data assimilation scheme derives required characteristic covariances of the ocean model. MEDRYS1 uses the current Mercator Océan operational data assimilation system [Lellouche et al., 2013, Oc.Sci.]. It uses a reduced order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. A 3D-Var scheme corrects biases in temperature and salinity for the slowly evolving large-scale. In addition, some modifications dedicated to the

  18. An 8-year, high-resolution reanalysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, B.; Chatterjee, A.; Ott, L. E.; Pawson, S.

    2017-12-01

    This talk presents an overview of results from the GEOS-Carb reanalysis of retrievals of average-column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) and Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) satellite missions. The reanalysis is a Level 3 (L3) product: a collection of 3D fields of carbon dioxide (CO2) mixing ratios every 6 hours beginning in April 2009 going until the present on a grid with a 0.5 degree horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels from the surface to 0.01 hPa. Using an assimilation methodology based on the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), the L3 fields are weighted averages of the two satellite retrievals and predictions from the GEOS general circulation model driven by assimilated meteorology from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). In places and times where there are a dense number of soundings, the observations dominate the predicted mixing ratios, while the model is used to fill in locations with fewer soundings, e.g., high latitudes and the Amazon. Blending the satellite observations with model predictions has at least two notable benefits. First, it provides a bridge for evaluating the satellite retrievals and their uncertainties against a heterogeneous collection of observations including those from surface sites, towers, aircraft, and soundings from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Extensive evaluations of the L3 reanalysis clearly demonstrate both the strength and the deficiency of the satellite retrievals. Second, it is possible to estimate variables from the reanalysis without introducing bias due to spatiotemporal variability in sounding coverage. For example, the assimilated product provides robust estimates of the monthly CO2 global growth rate. These monthly growth rate estimates show significant differences from estimates based on in situ observations, which have sparse coverage

  19. Validation of three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervantes-Villa, Juan Sebastian; Shprits, Yuri Y.

    2017-04-01

    Satellite observations are often incomplete and inaccurate and may have only limited spatial coverage. However, through data assimilation they can be blended with information from physics-based models, in order to fill gaps and lead to a better understanding of the underlying dynamical processes. Data assimilation methods have been extensively used to analyze and predict meteorological, oceanographic, and climate processes. With the advent of space-borne observational data and the development of more sophisticated space-physics models, dynamical processes in the Earth's radiation belts can be analyzed and assessed using data assimilation methods. In this study, reanalysis of radiation belt electrons is achieved through data assimilation of Van Allen Probes mission and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite with the 3D Versatile Electron Radiation Belt using a split-operator Kalman filter technique. Results are statistically validated for several field models and boundary conditions. Sensitivity of the reanalysis electron flux to available spacecraft data is also assessed.

  20. Modelling shape distortions in composite products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lamers, E.A.D.; Wijskamp, Sebastiaan; Akkerman, Remko; Storen, A.

    2004-01-01

    Shape distortions often occur after the forming of woven fabric reinforced composite products. The thermomechanical behaviour of the product must be known in order to predict these product distortions. A two-step strategy is proposed to model the thermomechanical behaviour of a product. First, the

  1. Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

  2. An Optimization Model for Product Placement on Product Listing Pages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan-Kwang Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The design of product listing pages is a key component of Website design because it has significant influence on the sales volume on a Website. This study focuses on product placement in designing product listing pages. Product placement concerns how venders of online stores place their products over the product listing pages for maximization of profit. This problem is very similar to the offline shelf management problem. Since product information sources on a Web page are typically communicated through the text and image, visual stimuli such as color, shape, size, and spatial arrangement often have an effect on the visual attention of online shoppers and, in turn, influence their eventual purchase decisions. In view of the above, this study synthesizes the visual attention literature and theory of shelf-space allocation to develop a mathematical programming model with genetic algorithms for finding optimal solutions to the focused issue. The validity of the model is illustrated with example problems.

  3. Quantifying How Observations Inform a Numerical Reanalysis of Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, B. S.

    2017-11-01

    When assimilating observations into a model via state-estimation, it is possible to quantify how each observation changes the modeled estimate of a chosen oceanic metric. Using an existing 2 year reanalysis of Hawaii that includes more than 31 million observations from satellites, ships, SeaGliders, and autonomous floats, I assess which observations most improve the estimates of the transport and eddy kinetic energy. When the SeaGliders were in the water, they comprised less than 2.5% of the data, but accounted for 23% of the transport adjustment. Because the model physics constrains advanced state-estimation, the prescribed covariances are propagated in time to identify observation-model covariance. I find that observations that constrain the isopycnal tilt across the transport section provide the greatest impact in the analysis. In the case of eddy kinetic energy, observations that constrain the surface-driven upper ocean have more impact. This information can help to identify optimal sampling strategies to improve both state-estimates and forecasts.

  4. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

  5. Architecture of the Product State Model Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Larsen, Michael; Lynggaard, Hans Jørgen B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of using product models to support product lifecycle activities withparticular focus on the production phase. The motivation of the research is that products are producedmore costly and with longer lead-time than necessary.The paper provides a review of product...... modelling technologies and approaches, and the overallarchitecture for the Product State Model (PSM) Environment as a basis for quality monitoring.Especially, the paper focuses on the circumstances prevailing in a one-of-a-kind manufacturingenvironment like the shipbuilding industry, where product modelling...... technologies already haveproved their worth in the design and engineering phases of shipbuilding and in the operation phase.However, the handling of product information on the shop floor is not yet equally developed.The paper reports from the Brite-Euram project (No. BE97-4510) QualiGlobe focusing...

  6. BOREAS TE-17 Production Efficiency Model Images

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A BOREAS version of the Global Production Efficiency Model(www.inform.umd.edu/glopem) was developed by TE-17 to generate maps of gross and net primary production,...

  7. CRC-cards for Product Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer

    2003-01-01

    , transportation, service and decommissioning. A main challenge when building product models is to collect and document the product related data, information and knowledge in a structured way. CRC cards are index cards (or computerized versions of these) which are used to record proposed classes, the behavior...... of the classes, their responsibilities, and their relationship to other classes (collaboration). CRC modelling gives an effective, low-tech method for domain-experts, programmers and users to work closely together to identify, structure, understand and document a product model. CRC cards were originally......This paper describes the CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration) modelling process for building product models. A product model is normally represented in an IT system which contains data, information and knowledge on industrial products and their life cycle properties e.g. manufacturing...

  8. Episódios de bloqueios no hemisfério sul: comparação entre reanálises do NCEP/NCAR e modelo HADCM3 Blocking episodes in the southern hemisphere: comparasion between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and HADCM3 model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Cristina Damião Mendes

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Nesse artigo é apresentada uma comparação entre o diagnóstico de bloqueios para o Hemisfério Sul, identificados em uma simulação com o modelo de circulação geral do Hadley Centre (HadCM3, e aqueles obtidos das reanálises do NCEP/NCAR, para o período de 1960 a 2000. A definição de bloqueio usada baseia-se no cálculo de dois gradientes meridionais da altura geopotencial em 500 hPa. O ciclo sazonal e as regiões preferenciais de ocorrência dos bloqueios foi bem simulada pelo modelo. Semelhante ao que foi encontrado a partir das reanálises, o modelo identificou como área preferencial de ocorrência de bloqueios o Pacífico Sul e Oceania. A freqüência dos bloqueios simulada pelo modelo foi semelhante à observada, com maior atividade verificada no inverno e início da primavera (junho até setembro.A comparison of blocking episodes for the Southern Hemisphere obtained from the Hadley Centre (HadCM3 model results and from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1960 to 2000, is discussed in this study. The definition of blocking is obtained by using an objective index based on two, 500 hPa geopotential height, meridional gradients. The seasonal cycle and preferential areas of occurrence are well reproduced by the model. Similar to the reanalysis results, the South Pacific and Oceania were the preferred regions of blocking occurrence. The frequency of blocking episodes simulated by the model was also similar to the observed, with higher blocking occurrences in the winter and beginning of spring (from June to September.

  9. Surface wave climatology and its variability in the North Indian Ocean based on ERA-Interim reanalysis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anoop, T.R.; Sanilkumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.; Johnson, G.

    -Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis product (ERA-Interim) for the period 1979–2012 are analyzed. Annual average significant wave height (SWH) of the NIO ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m and the seasonal average is highest (3–3.5 m) during...

  10. Relating Radiative Fluxes on Arctic Sea Ice Area Using Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sledd, A.; L'Ecuyer, T. S.

    2017-12-01

    With Arctic sea ice declining rapidly and Arctic temperatures rising faster than the rest of the globe, a better understanding of the Arctic climate, and ice cover-radiation feedbacks in particular, is needed. Here we present the Arctic Observation and Reanalysis Integrated System (ArORIS), a dataset of integrated products to facilitate studying the Arctic using satellite, reanalysis, and in-situ datasets. The data include cloud properties, radiative fluxes, aerosols, meteorology, precipitation, and surface properties, to name just a few. Each dataset has uniform grid-spacing, time-averaging and naming conventions for ease of use between products. One intended use of ArORIS is to assess Arctic radiation and moisture budgets. Following that goal, we use observations from ArORIS - CERES-EBAF radiative fluxes and NSIDC sea ice fraction and area to quantify relationships between the Arctic energy balance and surface properties. We find a discernable difference between energy budgets for years with high and low September sea ice areas. Surface fluxes are especially responsive to the September sea ice minimum in months both leading up to September and the months following. In particular, longwave fluxes at the surface show increased sensitivity in the months preceding September. Using a single-layer model of solar radiation we also investigate the individual responses of surface and planetary albedos to changes in sea ice area. By partitioning the planetary albedo into surface and atmospheric contributions, we find that the atmospheric contribution to planetary albedo is less sensitive to changes in sea ice area than the surface contribution. Further comparisons between observations and reanalyses can be made using the available datasets in ArORIS.

  11. A 4D Variational Reanalysis of the Bering Sea Circulation in 2007-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaremchuk, M.; Panteleev, G.; Francis, O. P.; Stabeno, P. J.; Weingartner, T.; Zhang, J.

    2016-02-01

    A two-way nested 4d-variational data assimilation system is implementedin the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) to investigate changes in circulation andthermodynamic state for a 3.8-year period. Assimilated observations includedata from 19 moorings deployed on the shelf and in the Bering Strait, 1705hydrographic stations occupied during eight surveys, and remotely sensedsea surface temperature and sea surface height (SSH) data. Validation ofthe presented 4dVar reanalysis against the output of two sequential data-assimilative systems (the Bering Ecosystem Study ice-ocean Modeling andAssimilation System (BESTMAS) and the Arctic Cap Nowcast-ForecastSystem (ACNFS)) has shown that the product is more consistent with theobserved transports in the Bering Strait and in the EBS interior both interms of their magnitude and time variability.Analysis of the data-optimized solution quantifies a sequence of wind-forced events that resulted in the anomalous heat and freshwater transportsthrough the Bering Strait, including a 28-day long flow reversal that occurredin November of 2009 and carried Siberian Coastal Current water as far asthe Gulf of Anadyr. Lagrangian study of the Arctic-bound Pacific watersindicates the extreme importance of the cross-shelf exchange along the pathof the Bering Slope Current and quantifies the spectrum of residence timesfor the waters entering EBS through Unimak Pass and through Aleutianpassages. Residence times in the EBS cold pool are diagnosed to be 2-3times longer than those in the surrounding waters.

  12. Identification of favorable environments for thunderstorms in reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja T. Westermayer

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The relations between lightning occurrence over Europe from the EUCLID network (2008–2013 and parameters derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis data were studied to increase the understanding of the conditions under which thunderstorms form. The objective was to identify relevant factors beyond instability and convective inhibition, in order to better model thunderstorms using numerical weather prediction or climate model data. It was found that latent instability is only required up to a certain amount of approximately 200–400 J kg-1 CAPE. For higher values of CAPE (~800$\\sim800$–2800 J kg-1, the relative frequency of lightning is rather constant. Relative humidity in the low to mid-troposphere has a major influence on storm occurrence with low relative humidity strongly suppressing thunderstorm development. For an average 850–500 hPa relative humidity below 50 %, the frequency of lightning decreases to below 15 %, even when CIN is negligible and CAPE sufficient. A subtle dependency on wind shear was found in which two regimes of higher frequency of lightning were identified. For very weak and for high shear the probability was higher than for intermediate values of both deep-layer and low-level shear.

  13. Studying Diurnal Variations of Aerosols with NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Suhung; Ostrenga, Dana M.; Zeng, Jian; Vollmer, Bruce E.

    2018-01-01

    Aerosols play an important role in atmospheric dynamics, climate variations, and Earth's energy cycle by altering the radiation balance in the atmosphere through interaction with clouds, providing fertilizer for forests and canopy, and as a supply of iron to the ocean over long time periods. Studies suggest that much of the feedback between dust aerosols and dynamics is associated with diurnal and synoptic scale variability. However, the lack of sub-daily resolution of aerosols from satellite observations makes it difficult to study the diurnal characteristics, especially over tropical and subtropical regions. Investigation of this topic utilizes over 37 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, in the second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) data set, available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, and is continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using data from MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated using the MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interacts directly with radiation parameterization, and is radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Hourly, monthly, and monthly diurnal data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5o x 0.625o (latitude x longitude). By using MERRA-2 hourly and monthly diurnal products, different aerosol diurnal variabilities are observed over North America, Africa, Asia, and Australia, that may be due to different meteorological conditions and aerosol sources. The presentation will also provide an overview of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC, such as how to find and download data, and how to quickly visualize and analyze data online with Giovanni.

  14. Marketing Modeling for New Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis addresses the analysis of new or very recent marketing data and the introduction of new marketing models. We present a collection of models that are useful to analyze (1) the optimal launch time of new and dominant technologies, (2) the triggers, speed and timing of new

  15. Order and disorder in product innovation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pina e Cunha, Miguel; Gomes, Jorge F.S.; Gomes, J.F.

    2003-01-01

    This article argues that the conceptual development of product innovation models goes hand in hand with paradigmatic changes in the field of organization science. Remarkable similarities in the change of organizational perspectives and product innovation models are noticeable. To illustrate how

  16. Winter atmospheric circulation over Europe and the North Atlantic: an intercomparison of reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

    2016-04-01

    Research on atmospheric circulation has been quite common lately and includes e.g. analyses of circulation properties and trends in both reanalysis datasets and circulation model outputs. In many cases, however, studies have been restricted to only one set of data and only one research method. The goal of our present work is to compare the properties of winter European atmospheric circulation in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, JRA-55, ERA-20C, and 20CRv2) over 1961-2000. The main research method we use is an automated circulation classification. In order to bring robust results, however, eight distinct circulation type calendars are defined based on the reanalysed daily mean sea level pressure patterns, for each of the reanalyses and over the total of eight European domains. Subsequently, basic properties of these calendars are computed and compared. Lastly, we show how results of GCM validation can vary if different reanalyses are taken as a benchmark.

  17. Stratospheric Intrusion-Influenced Ozone Air Quality Exceedances Investigated in the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowland, K. E.; Ott, L. E.; Duncan, B. N.; Wargan, K.

    2017-10-01

    Stratospheric intrusions have been the interest of decades of research for their ability to bring stratospheric ozone (O3) into the troposphere with the potential to enhance surface O3 concentrations. However, these intrusions have been misrepresented in models and reanalyses until recently, as the features of a stratospheric intrusion are best identified in horizontal resolutions of 50 km or smaller. NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis is a publicly available high-resolution data set (˜50 km) with assimilated O3 that characterizes O3 on the same spatiotemporal resolution as the meteorology. We demonstrate the science capabilities of the MERRA-2 reanalysis when applied to the evaluation of stratospheric intrusions that impact surface air quality. This is demonstrated through a case study analysis of stratospheric intrusion-influenced O3 exceedances in spring 2012 in Colorado, using a combination of observations, the MERRA-2 reanalysis and Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 simulations.

  18. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  19. Batch Cultivation Model for Biopolymer Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. E. Torres-Cerna

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a mathematical model to evaluate the kinetics of two different Pseudomonas putida strains, wild and mutant-type for the microbial production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs. Model parameters were estimated to represent adequately experimental data from the batch reactor using the differential evolution algorithm. Based on the mathematical model with the best-fit parameter values, simulations suggested that the high production of PHA by the mutant strain can be attributed not only to the higher production of PHA but also to a reduction in the consumption rate of the substrates of approximately 66 %. Remarkably, the cell growth rate value is higher for the wild type than the mutant type, suggesting that the PHA increase is not only to an increase in the production rate but also to the metabolism of the cells. This mathematical model advances comprehension of the PHA production capacity by P. putida paving the road towards environmentally friendly plastics.

  20. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  1. Modelling Configuration Knowledge in Heterogeneous Product Families

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Queva, Matthieu Stéphane Benoit; Männistö, Tomi; Ricci, Laurent

    2011-01-01

    the variability in such heterogeneous product families. Our approach is based on a framework that aims to cater for the different stakeholders involved in the modelling and management of the product family. The modelling approach is centred around the concepts of views, types and constraints and is illustrated...... by a motivation example. Furthermore, as a proof of concept, a prototype has been implemented for configuring a non-trivial heterogeneous product family.......Product configuration systems play an important role in the development of Mass Customisation. The configuration of complex product families may nowadays involve multiple design disciplines, e.g. hardware, software and services. In this paper, we present a conceptual approach for modelling...

  2. Models and Modelling Tools for Chemical Product and Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    2016-01-01

    -process design. Illustrative examples highlighting the need for efficient model-based systems will be presented, where the need for predictive models for innovative chemical product-process design will be highlighted. The examples will cover aspects of chemical product-process design where the idea of the grand......The design, development and reliability of a chemical product and the process to manufacture it, need to be consistent with the end-use characteristics of the desired product. One of the common ways to match the desired product-process characteristics is through trial and error based experiments......, which can be expensive and time consuming. An alternative approach is the use of a systematic model-based framework according to an established work-flow in product-process design, replacing some of the time consuming and/or repetitive experimental steps. The advantages of the use of a model...

  3. Formal Information Model for Representing Production Resources

    OpenAIRE

    Siltala, Niko; Järvenpää, Eeva; Lanz, Minna

    2017-01-01

    Part 2: Intelligent Manufacturing Systems; International audience; This paper introduces a concept and associated descriptions to formally describe physical production resources for modular and reconfigurable production systems. These descriptions are source of formal information for (automatic) production system design and (re-)configuration. They can be further utilized during the system deployment and execution. The proposed concept and the underlying formal resource description model is c...

  4. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  5. Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    We report on the suitability of statistical model checking for the analysis of quantitative properties of product line models by an extended treatment of earlier work by the authors. The type of analysis that can be performed includes the likelihood of specific product behaviour, the expected...... average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...... behaviour converge in a discrete-time Markov chain semantics, enabling the analysis of quantitative properties. Technically, a Maude implementation of QFLan, integrated with Microsoft’s SMT constraint solver Z3, is combined with the distributed statistical model checker MultiVeStA, developed by one...

  6. Measuring productivity differences in equilibrium search models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanot, Gauthier; Neumann, George R.

    1996-01-01

    Equilibrium search models require unobserved heterogeneity in productivity to fit observed wage distribution data, but provide no guidance about the location parameter of the heterogeneity. In this paper we show that the location of the productivity heterogeneity implies a mode in a kernel density...

  7. Mathematical modeling of fructose production by immobilised ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Production of fructose from glucose isomerisation process using commercial immobilized glucose isomerase (IGI) was conducted in a batch type of stirred tank bioreactor. A mathematical model was developed to describe the effect of temperature and pH on the kinetic parameters of fructose production. Modified Santos ...

  8. A model for persistency of egg production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grossman, M.; Gossman, T.N.; Koops, W.J.

    2000-01-01

    The objectives of our study were to propose a new definition for persistency of egg production and to develop a mathematical model to describe the egg production curve, one that includes a new measure for persistency, based on the proposed definition, for use as a selection criterion to improve

  9. Framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which supports product modelling for mass customization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer; Hvam, Lars

    2003-01-01

    and personalization. The framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge is based on the following theories: axiomatic design, technical systems, theory of domains, theory of structuring, theory of properties and the framework for the content of product and product related models. The framework is built...... and product related knowledge which should be or should not be included in the model. This demarcation will have a large influence on the structure of the IT systems (for example the configurator system, the CAD system or the PDM system). • The use of the framework can help achieve more structured models......The article presents a framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which can be used to support the product modelling process which is needed for developing IT systems. These IT systems are important tools for many companies when they aim at achieving mass customization...

  10. Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szlufarska, Izabela; Morgan, Dane; Allen, Todd

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high-temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission products

  11. Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szlufarska, Izabela [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Morgan, Dane [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Allen, Todd [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2013-04-08

    The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high- temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission

  12. Three-dimensional data assimilation and reanalysis of radiation belt electrons: Observations over two solar cycles, and operational forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Podladchikova, T.; Drozdov, A.; Subbotin, D.; Makarevich, R. A.; Donovan, E.; Nagai, T.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding of the dynamics in Earth's radiation belts is critical to accurate modeling and forecasting of space weather conditions, both which are important for design, and protection of our space-borne assets. In the current study, we utilize the Versatile Electron Radiation Belt (VERB) code, multi-spacecraft measurements, and a split-operator Kalman filter to recontructe the global state of the radiation belt system in the CRRES era and the current era. The reanalysis has revealed a never before seen 4-belt structure in the radiation belts during the March 1991 superstorm, and highlights several important aspects in regards to the the competition between the source, acceleration, loss, and transport of particles. In addition to the above, performing reanalysis in adiabatic coordinates relies on specification of the Earth's magnetic field, and associated observational, and model errors. We determine the observational errors for the Kalman filter directly from cross-spacecraft phase-space density (PSD) conjunctions, and obtain the error in VERB by comparison with reanalysis over a long time period. Specification of errors associated with several magnetic field models provides an important insight into the applicability of such models for radiation belt research. The comparison of CRRES area reanalysis with Van Allen Probe era reanalysis allows us to perform a global comparison of the dynamics of the radiation belts during different parts of the solar cycle and during different solar cycles. The data assimilative model is presently used to perform operational forecasts of the radiation belts (http://rbm.epss.ucla.edu/realtime-forecast/).

  13. Airborne Characterization of the 2003 North American Electrical Blackout: Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marufu, L.; Piety, C.; Bloomer, B.; Doddridge, B.; Stehr, J.; Dickerson, R.

    2006-05-01

    Airborne observations over central Pennsylvania on August 15, 2003, about 24 hrs into one of the largest North American electrical blackouts, revealed significant reductions in SO2, O3, and light scattered by particles, relative to measurements outside the blackout region and over the same location on a synoptically similar day the year before (August 4, 2002). CO and light absorbing particles were unaffected; the single scattering albedo during the blackout was 0.85. Reported SO2 and NOx emissions from upwind power plants were reduced to 34 and 20% of normal. The substantial improvement in air quality during the blackout suggested that transport of emissions from power plants hundreds of km upwind can play a dominant role in levels of O3 and haze over eastern North America. In this paper we report on the outcome of a follow up study that aimed at further testing the above conclusion. This study involved; 1) flying additional control cases, i.e., repeating the blackout flights over central PA under similar weather conditions, 2) inclusion of more control day (August 4, 2002) aircraft measurements over central PA in the comparisons, and 3) comparison of aircraft measurements to the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model output with appropriate emissions. Reanalysis of the blackout observations against additional information from this study confirmed the initial conclusion that long- range transport of emissions from up-wind power plants contribute substantially to the pollution experienced over eastern North America. Model output and the larger data set of control cases show that ozone was reduced by roughly 25%, SO2 by a factor of 2-4, and scattering by aerosols by a factor of 2.

  14. Comparison of the seasonal climate simulated by the pattern CCM3 and the data of the reanalysis NCEP/NCAR with the observed data of the temperature of the air and the precipitation in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leon Aristizabal, Gloria Esperanza; Zea Mazo, Jorge Anibal

    2001-01-01

    In this work we carry out a comparison of the simulations of the climatic model CCM3, the data of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis and real data, by the practical significance of the model based on the observed differences

  15. Modelling Fungal Fermentations for Enzyme Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albæk, Mads Orla; Gernaey, Krist; Hansen, Morten S.

    We have developed a process model of fungal fed-batch fermentations for enzyme production. In these processes, oxygen transfer rate is limiting and controls the substrate feeding rate. The model has been shown to describe cultivations of both Aspergillus oryzae and Trichoderma reesei strains in 550...

  16. A deterministic aggregate production planning model considering quality of products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madadi, Najmeh; Wong, Kuan Yew

    2013-01-01

    Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is a medium-term planning which is concerned with the lowest-cost method of production planning to meet customers' requirements and to satisfy fluctuating demand over a planning time horizon. APP problem has been studied widely since it was introduced and formulated in 1950s. However, in several conducted studies in the APP area, most of the researchers have concentrated on some common objectives such as minimization of cost, fluctuation in the number of workers, and inventory level. Specifically, maintaining quality at the desirable level as an objective while minimizing cost has not been considered in previous studies. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that serves those companies aiming to incur the minimum level of operational cost while maintaining quality at an acceptable level. In order to obtain the solution to the multi-objective model, the Fuzzy Goal Programming approach and max-min operator of Bellman-Zadeh were applied to the model. At the final step, IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio software was used to obtain the experimental results based on the data collected from an automotive parts manufacturing company. The results show that incorporating quality in the model imposes some costs, however a trade-off should be done between the cost resulting from producing products with higher quality and the cost that the firm may incur due to customer dissatisfaction and sale losses.

  17. Oxygen production System Models for Lunar ISRU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo

    2007-01-01

    In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) seeks to make human space exploration feasible; by using available resources from a planet or the moon to produce consumables, parts, and structures that otherwise would be brought from Earth. Producing these in situ reduces the mass of such that must be launched and doing so allows more payload mass' for each mission. The production of oxygen from lunar regolith, for life support and propellant, is one of the tasks being studied under ISRU. NASA is currently funding three processes that have shown technical merit for the production of oxygen from regolith: Molten Salt Electrolysis, Hydrogen Reduction of Ilmenite, and Carbothermal Reduction. The ISRU program is currently developing system models of, the , abovementioned processes to: (1) help NASA in the evaluation process to select the most cost-effective and efficient process for further prototype development, (2) identify key parameters, (3) optimize the oxygen production process, (4) provide estimates on energy and power requirements, mass and volume.of the system, oxygen production rate, mass of regolith required, mass of consumables, and other important parameters, and (5) integrate into the overall end-to-end ISRU system model, which could be integrated with mission architecture models. The oxygen production system model is divided into modules that represent unit operations (e.g., reactor, water electrolyzer, heat exchanger). Each module is modeled theoretically using Excel and Visual Basic for Applications (VBA), and will be validated using experimental data from on-going laboratory work. This modularity (plug-n-play) feature of each unit operation allows the use of the same model on different oxygen production systems simulations resulting in comparable results. In this presentation, preliminary results for mass, power, volume will be presented along with brief description of the oxygen production system model.

  18. A North American regional reanalysis climatology of the Haines Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei Lu; Joseph J. (Jay) Charney; Sharon Zhong; Xindi Bian; Shuhua. Liu

    2011-01-01

    A warm-season (May through October) Haines Index climatology is derived using 32-km regional reanalysis temperature and humidity data from 1980 to 2007. We compute lapse rates, dewpoint depressions, Haines Index factors A and B, and values for each of the low-, mid- and high-elevation variants of the Haines Index. Statistical techniques are used to investigate the...

  19. Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

    2012-01-15

    In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

  20. Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake

    2013-01-01

    Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatial...

  1. Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

    2012-01-01

    In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

  2. Review of existing landfill leachate production models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, T.A.

    2000-01-01

    The protection of water resources is a fundamental consideration in managing landfill operations. Landfill sites should be designed and operated so as to control leachate production and hence minimize the risk of surface and ground water pollution. A further important development is the use of computer models to estimate the production of leachate from landfill sites. It is revealed from the literature that a number of landfill leachate management model lave been development in recent years. These models allow different engineering schemes to be evaluated and are essential tools for design and operation managements of modern landfills. This paper describes a review of such models mainly focused on their theory, practicability, data requirements, suitability to real situation and usefulness. An evaluation of these models identifies. (author)

  3. A neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helie, Sebastien; Roeder, Jessica L; Vucovich, Lauren; Rünger, Dennis; Ashby, F Gregory

    2015-07-01

    Most behaviors unfold in time and include a sequence of submovements or cognitive activities. In addition, most behaviors are automatic and repeated daily throughout life. Yet, relatively little is known about the neurobiology of automatic sequence production. Past research suggests a gradual transfer from the associative striatum to the sensorimotor striatum, but a number of more recent studies challenge this role of the BG in automatic sequence production. In this article, we propose a new neurocomputational model of automatic sequence production in which the main role of the BG is to train cortical-cortical connections within the premotor areas that are responsible for automatic sequence production. The new model is used to simulate four different data sets from human and nonhuman animals, including (1) behavioral data (e.g., RTs), (2) electrophysiology data (e.g., single-neuron recordings), (3) macrostructure data (e.g., TMS), and (4) neurological circuit data (e.g., inactivation studies). We conclude with a comparison of the new model with existing models of automatic sequence production and discuss a possible new role for the BG in automaticity and its implication for Parkinson's disease.

  4. Conceptual Modelling of Complex Production Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nenad Perši

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Complex system dynamics, structure and behaviour performances call for a wide range of methods, algorithms and tools to reach a model capable of finding optimal performing parameters. In the modelling process, it is up to the analyst to select the appropriate combination of methods, algorithms and tools to express significant system performances. Such a methodology for designing complex systems should be based upon conceptual modelling to perform a sensitive analysis of different system levels and views, allowing system representations for developing computer models.Complex systems, such as business systems with a continuous-discrete production process, require a well organised supply chain highly reactive to production assortment changes. Aligning two different production components distinctive in their behaviour is especially delicate at the production parameters transition point. Such system performances require distinctive designing methods that can follow the double nature of the production process behaviour in accordance with their entities dynamics caused by assortment changes. Consequently, such systems need different conceptual presentations for their purpose to be realized from different views and aspects.

  5. Global snowfall: A combined CloudSat, GPM, and reanalysis perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Lisa; Kulie, Mark S.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail; Munchak, S. Joseph; Wood, Norman B.; Levizzani, Vincenzo

    2017-04-01

    Quantitative global snowfall estimates derived from multi-year data records will be presented to highlight recent advances in high latitude precipitation retrievals using spaceborne observations. More specifically, the analysis features the 2006-2016 CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and the 2014-2016 Global Precipitation (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) observational datasets and derived products. The ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset is also used to define the meteorological context and an independent combined modeling/observational evaluation dataset. An overview is first provided of CloudSat CPR-derived results that have stimulated significant recent research regarding global snowfall, including seasonal analyses of unique snowfall modes. GMI and DPR global annual snowfall retrievals are then evaluated against the CloudSat estimates to highlight regions where the datasets provide both consistent and diverging snowfall estimates. A hemispheric seasonal analysis for both datasets will also be provided. These comparisons aim at providing a unified global snowfall characterization that leverages the respective instrument's strengths. Attention will also be devoted to regions around the globe that experience unique snowfall modes. For instance, CloudSat has demonstrated an ability to effectively discern snowfall produced by shallow cumuliform cloud structures (e.g., lake/ocean-induced convective snow produced by air/water interactions associated with seasonal cold air outbreaks). The CloudSat snowfall database also reveals prevalent seasonal shallow cumuliform snowfall trends over climate-sensitive regions like the Greenland Ice Sheet. Other regions with unique snowfall modes, such as the US East Coast winter storm track zone that experiences intense snowfall rates directly associated with strong low pressure systems, will also be highlighted to demonstrate GPM's observational effectiveness. Linkages between CloudSat and GPM

  6. Modelling preparation and consumption of pork products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swart, Arno; Nauta, Maarten; Evers, Eric

    This poster describes the retail and consumer phase of the EFSA Salmonella in Pork QMRA (Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment, funded under an Article 36 grant to support the scientific opinion required by EFS). The food chain is modelled from retail to ingestion by the consumer. Three...... on daily life food handling practices are hard to obtain. We performed a literature survey and parametrised the model including the inherent variability in consumer behaviour. The output is the number of Salmonellae ingested per person per day, for each pig meat product. This output will in feed...... into the final model, where the risk of illness is modelled using a dose-response relation....

  7. An integrated production, inventory and preventive maintenance model for a multi-product production system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Xuejuan; Wang, Wenbin; Peng, Rui

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers a production system that can produce multiple products alternately. Products go through the system in a sequence and a complete run of all products forms a production cycle. An integrated production, inventory and preventive maintenance model is constructed, which is characterized by the delay-time concept. Two different situations are studied based on whether the unqualified products and downtime caused by the failures of the system, set-up and preventive maintenance can be ignored or not. Three cases are considered for each situation, depending on the position of the preventive maintenance epochs: the first case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at the end of each production cycle; the second case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at each set-up time of the products; and the third case, where preventive maintenance is carried out at some set-up times only, since it may not always be optimal to carry out preventive maintenance at the end of the production cycle or at each set-up time. The modeling objectives are to find the optimal number of production cycles per year and the optimal position of preventive maintenance that will maximize the expected profit per unit time. Numerical examples, using real data, are presented to illustrate the model. - Highlights: • We propose an integrated economic production quantity and preventive maintenance model. • The situation that multiple products are produced on the same system alternately is studied. • Two situations are studied based on whether the downtime and the product quality can be ignored or not. • We use enumeration method and analytical method to select the optimal preventive maintenance policy, respectively. • We use the delay-time concept to model the preventive maintenance policy

  8. Strategic system development toward biofuel, desertification, and crop production monitoring in continental scales using satellite-based photosynthesis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Daijiro

    2013-10-01

    The author regards fundamental root functions as underpinning photosynthesis activities by vegetation and as affecting environmental issues, grain production, and desertification. This paper describes the present development of monitoring and near real-time forecasting of environmental projects and crop production by approaching established operational monitoring step-by-step. The author has been developing a thematic monitoring structure (named RSEM system) which stands on satellite-based photosynthesis models over several continents for operational supports in environmental fields mentioned above. Validation methods stand not on FLUXNET but on carbon partitioning validation (CPV). The models demand continuing parameterization. The entire frame system has been built using Reanalysis meteorological data, but model accuracy remains insufficient except for that of paddy rice. The author shall accomplish the system that incorporates global environmental forces. Regarding crop production applications, industrialization in developing countries achieved through direct investment by economically developed nations raises their income, resulting in increased food demand. Last year, China began to import rice as it had in the past with grains of maize, wheat, and soybeans. Important agro-potential countries make efforts to cultivate new crop lands in South America, Africa, and Eastern Europe. Trends toward less food sustainability and stability are continuing, with exacerbation by rapid social and climate changes. Operational monitoring of carbon sequestration by herbaceous and bore plants converges with efforts at bio-energy, crop production monitoring, and socio-environmental projects such as CDM A/R, combating desertification, and bio-diversity.

  9. Application of the spectral correction method to reanalysis data in South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries C.

    2014-01-01

    of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the method to the relevant region. The impacts from the two aspects are investigated for interior and coastal locations. Measurements from five stations from South Africa are used to evaluate the results from the spectral model S(f)=af−5/3 together...... with the hourly time series of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) 10 m wind at 38 km resolution over South Africa. The results show that using the spectral correction method to the CFSR wind data produce extreme wind atlases in acceptable agreement with the atlas made from limited measurements across...

  10. Land Surface Temperature and Emissivity Separation from Cross-Track Infrared Sounder Data with Atmospheric Reanalysis Data and ISSTES Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Ze Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS is one of the most advanced hyperspectral instruments and has been used for various atmospheric applications such as atmospheric retrievals and weather forecast modeling. However, because of the specific design purpose of CrIS, little attention has been paid to retrieving land surface parameters from CrIS data. To take full advantage of the rich spectral information in CrIS data to improve the land surface retrievals, particularly the acquisition of a continuous Land Surface Emissivity (LSE spectrum, this paper attempts to simultaneously retrieve a continuous LSE spectrum and the Land Surface Temperature (LST from CrIS data with the atmospheric reanalysis data and the Iterative Spectrally Smooth Temperature and Emissivity Separation (ISSTES algorithm. The results show that the accuracy of the retrieved LSEs and LST is comparable with the current land products. The overall differences of the LST and LSE retrievals are approximately 1.3 K and 1.48%, respectively. However, the LSEs in our study can be provided as a continuum spectrum instead of the single-channel values in traditional products. The retrieved LST and LSEs now can be better used to further analyze the surface properties or improve the retrieval of atmospheric parameters.

  11. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  12. Kinetic model for polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) production by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A kinetic model that describes microbial growth, biopolymer production and substrate consumption is used to predict the performance of batch fermentation of Hydrogenophaga pseudoflava. H. pseudoflava DSMZ 1034 is useful in synthesizing polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs).The experimental data was also fitted with the ...

  13. Design, product structuring and modelling of mechatronic products and systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conrad, Finn; Sørensen, Torben

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology offers software and hardware for improvement of the engineering design, structuring and control systems, and industrial applications. The latest progress in IT makes integration of an overall design and manufacturing IT- concept feasible and commercially attractive. An IT......-tool concept for modelling, simulation and design of mechatronic products and systems is proposed in this paper. It built on results from a Danish mechatronic research program on intelligent motion control as well as from the Esprit project SWING on IT-tools for rapid prototyping of fluid power components...

  14. Pebble Bed Reactor Dust Production Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Joshua J. Cogliati

    2008-09-01

    The operation of pebble bed reactors, including fuel circulation, can generate graphite dust, which in turn could be a concern for internal components; and to the near field in the remote event of a break in the coolant circuits. The design of the reactor system must, therefore, take the dust into account and the operation must include contingencies for dust removal and for mitigation of potential releases. Such planning requires a proper assessment of the dust inventory. This paper presents a predictive model of dust generation in an operating pebble bed with recirculating fuel. In this preliminary work the production model is based on the use of the assumption of proportionality between the dust production and the normal force and distance traveled. The model developed in this work uses the slip distances and the inter-pebble forces computed by the authors’ PEBBLES. The code, based on the discrete element method, simulates the relevant static and kinetic friction interactions between the pebbles as well as the recirculation of the pebbles through the reactor vessel. The interaction between pebbles and walls of the reactor vat is treated using the same approach. The amount of dust produced is proportional to the wear coefficient for adhesive wear (taken from literature) and to the slip volume, the product of the contact area and the slip distance. The paper will compare the predicted volume with the measured production rates. The simulation tallies the dust production based on the location of creation. Two peak production zones from intra pebble forces are predicted within the bed. The first zone is located near the pebble inlet chute due to the speed of the dropping pebbles. The second peak zone occurs lower in the reactor with increased pebble contact force due to the weight of supported pebbles. This paper presents the first use of a Discrete Element Method simulation of pebble bed dust production.

  15. Nutrient transports in the Baltic Sea - results from a 30-year physical-biogeochemical reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ye; Meier, H. E. Markus; Eilola, Kari

    2017-04-01

    Long-term oxygen and nutrient transports in the Baltic Sea are reconstructed using the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) coupled to the Rossby Centre Ocean model (RCO). Two simulations with and without data assimilation covering the period 1970-1999 are carried out. Here, the weakly coupled scheme with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) method is adopted to assimilate observed profiles in the reanalysis system. The reanalysis shows considerable improvement in the simulation of both oxygen and nutrient concentrations relative to the free run. Further, the results suggest that the assimilation of biogeochemical observations has a significant effect on the simulation of the oxygen-dependent dynamics of biogeochemical cycles. From the reanalysis, nutrient transports between sub-basins, between the coastal zone and the open sea, and across latitudinal and longitudinal cross sections are calculated. Further, the spatial distributions of regions with nutrient import or export are examined. Our results emphasize the important role of the Baltic proper for the entire Baltic Sea, with large net transport (export minus import) of nutrients from the Baltic proper into the surrounding sub-basins (except the net phosphorus import from the Gulf of Riga and the net nitrogen import from the Gulf of Riga and Danish Straits). In agreement with previous studies, we found that the Bothnian Sea imports large amounts of phosphorus from the Baltic proper that are retained in this sub-basin. For the calculation of sub-basin budgets, the location of the lateral borders of the sub-basins is crucial, because net transports may change sign with the location of the border. Although the overall transport patterns resemble the results of previous studies, our calculated estimates differ in detail considerably.

  16. Alternative methods of modeling wind generation using production costing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milligan, M.R.; Pang, C.K.

    1996-08-01

    This paper examines the methods of incorporating wind generation in two production costing models: one is a load duration curve (LDC) based model and the other is a chronological-based model. These two models were used to evaluate the impacts of wind generation on two utility systems using actual collected wind data at two locations with high potential for wind generation. The results are sensitive to the selected wind data and the level of benefits of wind generation is sensitive to the load forecast. The total production cost over a year obtained by the chronological approach does not differ significantly from that of the LDC approach, though the chronological commitment of units is more realistic and more accurate. Chronological models provide the capability of answering important questions about wind resources which are difficult or impossible to address with LDC models

  17. Investigating a solar influence on cloud cover using the North American Regional Reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krahenbuhl Daniel Scott

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The controversial connection between cosmic rays, solar activity, and cloud cover is investigated using a climatological reconstructed reanalysis product: the North American Regional Reanalysis which provides high-resolution, low, mid-level, high, and total cloud cover data over a Lambert conformal conic projection permitting land/ocean discrimination. Pearson’s product-moment regional correlations were obtained between monthly cloud cover data and solar variability indicators, cosmic ray neutron monitors, several climatological indices, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, and between cloud layers. Regions of the mid-latitude oceans exhibited a positive correlation with cosmic ray flux. Additionally, this maritime low cloud cover exhibits the only failed correlation significance with other altitudes. The cross correlation reveals that cloud cover is positively correlated everywhere but for ocean low cloud cover, supporting the unique response of the marine layer. The results of this investigation suggest that with the assumption that solar forcing does impact cloud cover, measurements of solar activity exhibits a slightly higher correlation than GCRs. The only instance where GCRs exhibit a positive regional correlation with cloud cover is for maritime low clouds. The AMO exerts the greatest control of cloud cover in the NARR domain.

  18. Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ménégoz

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We applied a Regional Climate Model (RCM to simulate precipitation and snow cover over the Himalaya, between March 2000 and December 2002. Due to its higher resolution, our model simulates a more realistic spatial variability of wind and precipitation than those of the reanalysis of the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF used as lateral boundaries. In this region, we found very large discrepancies between the estimations of precipitation provided by reanalysis, rain gauges networks, satellite observations, and our RCM simulation. Our model clearly underestimates precipitation at the foothills of the Himalaya and in its eastern part. However, our simulation provides a first estimation of liquid and solid precipitation in high altitude areas, where satellite and rain gauge networks are not very reliable. During the two years of simulation, our model resembles the snow cover extent and duration quite accurately in these areas. Both snow accumulation and snow cover duration differ widely along the Himalaya: snowfall can occur during the whole year in western Himalaya, due to both summer monsoon and mid-latitude low pressure systems bringing moisture into this region. In Central Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau, a much more marked dry season occurs from October to March. Snow cover does not have a pronounced seasonal cycle in these regions, since it depends both on the quite variable duration of the monsoon and on the rare but possible occurrence of snowfall during the extra-monsoon period.

  19. Coordinated supply chain dynamic production planning model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandra, Charu; Grabis, Janis

    2001-10-01

    Coordination of different and often contradicting interests of individual supply chain members is one of the important issues in supply chain management because the individual members can not succeed without success of the supply chain and vice versa. This paper investigates a supply chain dynamic production planning problem with emphasis on coordination. A planning problem is formally described using a supply chain kernel, which defines supply chain configuration, management policies, available resources and objectives both at supply chain or macro and supply chain member or micro levels. The coordinated model is solved in order to balance decisions made at the macro and micro levels and members' profitability is used as the coordination criterion. The coordinated model is used to determine inventory levels and production capacity across the supply chain. Application of the coordinated model distributes costs burden uniformly among supply chain members and preserves overall efficiency of the supply chain. Influence of the demand series uncertainty is investigated. The production planning model is a part of the integrated supply chain decision modeling system, which is shared among the supply chain members across the Internet.

  20. Reference model for apparel product development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Cristina Moretti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper was to develop a reference model for the implementation of the process of product development (PDP for apparel. The tool was developed through an interactive process of comparison between theoretical. Managers in companies and professionals working in this market can utilize the reference model as a source for the organization and improvement of the PDP for apparel and the universities as a reference source for systematized teaching of this process. This model represents the first comprehensive attempt to develop an instrument at a detailed level (macro phases, phases, activities, inputs and outputs at each stage and at the gates to systematize the PDP process for fashion products and to consider its particularities.

  1. Extreme winds over Denmark from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frank, H.P.

    2001-05-01

    An extreme wind analysis of wind speed calculated in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is done for grid points over and near Denmark. Winds at 10 m, 850 hPa, and geostrophic winds at 850 hPa, 1000 hPa, and at the sea level are analyzed. At 10 m height the expected extreme wind with a return period of 50 years at the North Sea west of Denmark is 27 ms{sup -1}. It is approximately 11 % less than estimates from observations. However, values at grid points over land in Denmark cannot be compared with observations because the roughness length of these land surfaces is far to big in the model. A transformation to a common roughness length of 5 cm using the geostrophic drag law yields too high values. At points in northern Germany, where the surface roughness of the model is less, the transformed 50-years wind speed is 22-23 ms{sup -1}, which agrees well with estimates obtained from measurements. The analyses of the wind at 850 hPa and the geostrophic wind at 850 hPa or 1000 hPa yield very similar extreme winds of approximately 42 ms{sup -1}. The geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure is approximately 45 ms{sup -1} in central Denmark. The geostrophic winds at 1000 hPa are slightly stronger than at 850 hPa, which are somewhat greater than the actual wind at 850 hPa. Transformations to a wind at 10 m over a surface with roughness 5 cm with the help of the drag law yield extreme winds, which are approximately 10-12 % less than from surface measurements. The 850 hPa winds and the geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure indicate a weak decrease from west to east, whereas the geostrophic wind data at constant pressure levels show almost constant extreme winds across Denmark. All upper-air and geostrophic wind data show higher extreme winds in northern Germany than in Denmark. Further investigations are necessary to find out if the underestimation of the extreme wind by approximately 10-12 % is valid in most mid-latitudes. (au)

  2. Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

    OpenAIRE

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2013-01-01

    Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatial distribution of the extreme wind with coarse resolution data giving smaller extreme winds. The CFSR surface winds at 38 km horizontal resolution provides the best spatial distribution of the extreme...

  3. Testing Software Development Project Productivity Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipkin, Ilya

    Software development is an increasingly influential factor in today's business environment, and a major issue affecting software development is how an organization estimates projects. If the organization underestimates cost, schedule, and quality requirements, the end results will not meet customer needs. On the other hand, if the organization overestimates these criteria, resources that could have been used more profitably will be wasted. There is no accurate model or measure available that can guide an organization in a quest for software development, with existing estimation models often underestimating software development efforts as much as 500 to 600 percent. To address this issue, existing models usually are calibrated using local data with a small sample size, with resulting estimates not offering improved cost analysis. This study presents a conceptual model for accurately estimating software development, based on an extensive literature review and theoretical analysis based on Sociotechnical Systems (STS) theory. The conceptual model serves as a solution to bridge organizational and technological factors and is validated using an empirical dataset provided by the DoD. Practical implications of this study allow for practitioners to concentrate on specific constructs of interest that provide the best value for the least amount of time. This study outlines key contributing constructs that are unique for Software Size E-SLOC, Man-hours Spent, and Quality of the Product, those constructs having the largest contribution to project productivity. This study discusses customer characteristics and provides a framework for a simplified project analysis for source selection evaluation and audit task reviews for the customers and suppliers. Theoretical contributions of this study provide an initial theory-based hypothesized project productivity model that can be used as a generic overall model across several application domains such as IT, Command and Control

  4. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  5. Efficient Reanalysis Procedures in Structural Topology Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded

    This thesis examines efficient solution procedures for the structural analysis problem within topology optimization. The research is motivated by the observation that when the nested approach to structural optimization is applied, most of the computational effort is invested in repeated solutions...... effort invested in the solution of the nested problem is even more dominant since nonlinear equation systems are to be solved repeatedly. Efficient procedures for nonlinear structural analysis are proposed, based on transferring solutions and factorized tangent stiffnesses from one design cycle...... is on the utilization of various approximations to the solution of the analysis problem, where the underlying model corresponds to linear elasticity. For computational environments that enable the direct solution of large linear equation systems using matrix factorization, we propose efficient procedures based...

  6. Model of the Product Development Lifecycle.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Sunny L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roe, Natalie H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wood, Evan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    While the increased use of Commercial Off-The-Shelf information technology equipment has presented opportunities for improved cost effectiveness and flexibility, the corresponding loss of control over the product's development creates unique vulnerabilities and security concerns. Of particular interest is the possibility of a supply chain attack. A comprehensive model for the lifecycle of hardware and software products is proposed based on a survey of existing literature from academic, government, and industry sources. Seven major lifecycle stages are identified and defined: (1) Requirements, (2) Design, (3) Manufacturing for hardware and Development for software, (4) Testing, (5) Distribution, (6) Use and Maintenance, and (7) Disposal. The model is then applied to examine the risk of attacks at various stages of the lifecycle.

  7. Constraining supergravity models from gluino production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbieri, R.; Gamberini, G.; Giudice, G.F.; Ridolfi, G.

    1988-01-01

    The branching ratios for gluino decays g tilde → qanti qΧ, g tilde → gΧ into a stable undetected neutralino are computed as functions of the relevant parameters of the underlying supergravity theory. A simple way of constraining supergravity models from gluino production emerges. The effectiveness of hadronic versus e + e - colliders in the search for supersymmetry can be directly compared. (orig.)

  8. Product with service, technology with business model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service-S...... promising concept beyond PSS design; via an integrated development of technology and business model. This can be of particular interest for further research, especially due to its high freedom for designers.......Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product....../Service-Systems (PSS) design. This paper first explains PSS design as a type of an expansion of the engineering design of a physical product. Secondly, it gives a review of PSS research and a projection of future research issues, also ranging out into untraditional fields of research. Finally, it presents a new...

  9. Analysis of the precipitation and streamflow extremes in Northern Italy using high resolution reanalysis dataset Express-Hydro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestro, Francesco; Parodi, Antonio; Campo, Lorenzo

    2017-04-01

    The characterization of the hydrometeorological extremes, both in terms of rainfall and streamflow, in a given region plays a key role in the environmental monitoring provided by the flood alert services. In last years meteorological simulations (both near real-time and historical reanalysis) were available at increasing spatial and temporal resolutions, making possible long-period hydrological reanalysis in which the meteo dataset is used as input in distributed hydrological models. In this work, a very high resolution meteorological reanalysis dataset, namely Express-Hydro (CIMA, ISAC-CNR, GAUSS Special Project PR45DE), was employed as input in the hydrological model Continuum in order to produce long time series of streamflows in the Liguria territory, located in the Northern part of Italy. The original dataset covers the whole Europe territory in the 1979-2008 period, at 4 km of spatial resolution and 3 hours of time resolution. Analyses in terms of comparison between the rainfall estimated by the dataset and the observations (available from the local raingauges network) were carried out, and a bias correction was also performed in order to better match the observed climatology. An extreme analysis was eventually carried on the streamflows time series obtained by the simulations, by comparing them with the results of the same hydrological model fed with the observed time series of rainfall. The results of the analysis are shown and discussed.

  10. Satellite-based terrestrial production efficiency modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obersteiner Michael

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Production efficiency models (PEMs are based on the theory of light use efficiency (LUE which states that a relatively constant relationship exists between photosynthetic carbon uptake and radiation receipt at the canopy level. Challenges remain however in the application of the PEM methodology to global net primary productivity (NPP monitoring. The objectives of this review are as follows: 1 to describe the general functioning of six PEMs (CASA; GLO-PEM; TURC; C-Fix; MOD17; and BEAMS identified in the literature; 2 to review each model to determine potential improvements to the general PEM methodology; 3 to review the related literature on satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP and NPP modeling for additional possibilities for improvement; and 4 based on this review, propose items for coordinated research. This review noted a number of possibilities for improvement to the general PEM architecture - ranging from LUE to meteorological and satellite-based inputs. Current PEMs tend to treat the globe similarly in terms of physiological and meteorological factors, often ignoring unique regional aspects. Each of the existing PEMs has developed unique methods to estimate NPP and the combination of the most successful of these could lead to improvements. It may be beneficial to develop regional PEMs that can be combined under a global framework. The results of this review suggest the creation of a hybrid PEM could bring about a significant enhancement to the PEM methodology and thus terrestrial carbon flux modeling. Key items topping the PEM research agenda identified in this review include the following: LUE should not be assumed constant, but should vary by plant functional type (PFT or photosynthetic pathway; evidence is mounting that PEMs should consider incorporating diffuse radiation; continue to pursue relationships between satellite-derived variables and LUE, GPP and autotrophic respiration (Ra; there is an urgent need for

  11. Satellite-based terrestrial production efficiency modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Ian; Wagner, Wolfgang; Schmullius, Christiane; Shvidenko, Anatoly; Obersteiner, Michael; Fritz, Steffen; Nilsson, Sten

    2009-09-18

    Production efficiency models (PEMs) are based on the theory of light use efficiency (LUE) which states that a relatively constant relationship exists between photosynthetic carbon uptake and radiation receipt at the canopy level. Challenges remain however in the application of the PEM methodology to global net primary productivity (NPP) monitoring. The objectives of this review are as follows: 1) to describe the general functioning of six PEMs (CASA; GLO-PEM; TURC; C-Fix; MOD17; and BEAMS) identified in the literature; 2) to review each model to determine potential improvements to the general PEM methodology; 3) to review the related literature on satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP) and NPP modeling for additional possibilities for improvement; and 4) based on this review, propose items for coordinated research.This review noted a number of possibilities for improvement to the general PEM architecture - ranging from LUE to meteorological and satellite-based inputs. Current PEMs tend to treat the globe similarly in terms of physiological and meteorological factors, often ignoring unique regional aspects. Each of the existing PEMs has developed unique methods to estimate NPP and the combination of the most successful of these could lead to improvements. It may be beneficial to develop regional PEMs that can be combined under a global framework. The results of this review suggest the creation of a hybrid PEM could bring about a significant enhancement to the PEM methodology and thus terrestrial carbon flux modeling.Key items topping the PEM research agenda identified in this review include the following: LUE should not be assumed constant, but should vary by plant functional type (PFT) or photosynthetic pathway; evidence is mounting that PEMs should consider incorporating diffuse radiation; continue to pursue relationships between satellite-derived variables and LUE, GPP and autotrophic respiration (Ra); there is an urgent need for satellite-based biomass

  12. Fast variable stiffness composite cylinder uncertainty analysis by using reanalysis assisted Copula function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zeng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available There are lots of uncertainties in variable-stiffness composite materials such as material properties, fibre volume fraction, geometries at various scale and matrix porosity. Commonly, these uncertainties are not always mutually independent and there exist correlations among these random input variables. These correlations may affect the output of composite significantly. To address these correlations, a novel approach for uncertainty analysis based on copula function assisted by reanalysis method is suggested. The Copula function is utilized to address the correlations of random input variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS is employed to obtain the uncertainty analysis. Therefore, a large number of samples should be generated and the expensive computational cost is not feasible when the popular finite element (FE model is utilized. To save the computational cost and make the uncertainty analysis feasible in practice, an efficient fast computation method, reanalysis method is integrated in the frame. The numerical test demonstrates that the proposed approach is an efficient uncertainty analysis tool for the practical engineering problems.

  13. Wind Power Ramp Events Prediction with Hybrid Machine Learning Regression Techniques and Reanalysis Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Cornejo-Bueno

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind Power Ramp Events (WPREs are large fluctuations of wind power in a short time interval, which lead to strong, undesirable variations in the electric power produced by a wind farm. Its accurate prediction is important in the effort of efficiently integrating wind energy in the electric system, without affecting considerably its stability, robustness and resilience. In this paper, we tackle the problem of predicting WPREs by applying Machine Learning (ML regression techniques. Our approach consists of using variables from atmospheric reanalysis data as predictive inputs for the learning machine, which opens the possibility of hybridizing numerical-physical weather models with ML techniques for WPREs prediction in real systems. Specifically, we have explored the feasibility of a number of state-of-the-art ML regression techniques, such as support vector regression, artificial neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons and extreme learning machines and Gaussian processes to solve the problem. Furthermore, the ERA-Interim reanalysis from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts is the one used in this paper because of its accuracy and high resolution (in both spatial and temporal domains. Aiming at validating the feasibility of our predicting approach, we have carried out an extensive experimental work using real data from three wind farms in Spain, discussing the performance of the different ML regression tested in this wind power ramp event prediction problem.

  14. Assessment of patient-specific surgery effect based on weighted estimation and propensity scoring in the re-analysis of the sciatica trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart J A Mertens

    Full Text Available We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery.

  15. Assessment of Patient-Specific Surgery Effect Based on Weighted Estimation and Propensity Scoring in the Re-Analysis of the Sciatica Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Bart J. A.; Jacobs, Wilco C. H.; Brand, Ronald; Peul, Wilco C.

    2014-01-01

    We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control) arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery. PMID:25353633

  16. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabrina Wahl

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric reanalyses are a state-of-the-art tool to generate consistent and realistic state estimates of the atmospheric system. They provide a synthesis of various heterogeneous observational systems and model simulations using a physical model together with a data assimilation scheme. Current reanalyses are mainly global, while regional reanalyses are emerging for North America, the polar region, and most recently for Europe. However, deep convection is still parameterized even in the regional reanalyses. A novel convective-scale regional reanalysis system for Central Europe (COSMO-REA2 has been developed by the Hans-Ertel Center for Weather Research – Climate Monitoring Branch. The system is based on the COSMO model and uses observational nudging for regional data assimilation. In addition to conventional observations, radar-derived rain rates are assimilated using latent heat nudging. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2 km, the model runs without parameterization of deep moist convection. COSMO-REA2 produces horizontal wind fields that represent a realistic energy spectrum for horizontal scales above 14 km. COSMO-REA2 is currently available for seven years from 2007 to 2013.This study illustrates the improved representation of local precipitation over Germany by the convective-scale reanalysis COSMO-REA2 compared to coarser gridded European and global reanalyses. A systematic verification using rain gauge data reveals the added value of high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalyses on different time scales. On monthly to annual time scales, regional reanalyses yield better estimates of the spatial variability of precipitation patterns which can not be provided by coarser gridded global models. On hourly to daily time scales, the convective-scale reanalysis substantially improves the representation of local precipitation in two ways. On the one hand, COSMO-REA2 shows an enhanced representation of observed frequencies of local

  17. Interannual Variability of Southern Ocean Diatom Production in a Model With Flexible Si:N:C:Chl Ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelker, C. D.; Hohn, S.; Losch, M.; Losa, S.; Wolf-Gladrow, D. A.

    2008-12-01

    The requirements of phytoplankton for nutrients strongly couple the fluxes of different biologically important elements, such as carbon, nitrogen, silicon and iron. In the Southern Ocean this coupling manifests itself in iron limitation controlling the primary production, but also influencing the Si:N-ratio of nutrient drawdown and biomass export. We investigate the interaction between nutrient inputs, biomass composition and the biological pump in the Southern Ocean with the help of a global biogeochemical model that allows for physiological variations of the Our model results agree with observations of enhanced Si:N drawdown ratios around Antarctica and show a belt of strong vertical flux of biogenic Si over the location of the 'opal belt' in the sediment. In the model, the export of BSi around Antarctica is increased through high Si:C ratios in phytoplankton caused by iron limitation. Integration of the model forced by meteorological reanalysis fields leads to interannual variability of sea ice extent, nutrient upwelling and sea surface temperature. We investigate the consequences of this variability for the biological pump in different regions of the Southern Ocean, comparing the model with JGOFS data, and analyse the role of stoichiometric variations.

  18. Evaluation of ACCMIP ozone simulations and ozonesonde sampling biases using a satellite-based multi-constituent chemical reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Bowman, Kevin

    2017-07-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble ozone simulations for the present day from the 2000 decade simulation results are evaluated by a state-of-the-art multi-constituent atmospheric chemical reanalysis that ingests multiple satellite data including the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) for 2005-2009. Validation of the chemical reanalysis against global ozonesondes shows good agreement throughout the free troposphere and lower stratosphere for both seasonal and year-to-year variations, with an annual mean bias of less than 0.9 ppb in the middle and upper troposphere at the tropics and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis provides comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of chemistry-model performance that compliments direct ozonesonde comparisons, which are shown to suffer from significant sampling bias. The reanalysis reveals that the ACCMIP ensemble mean overestimates ozone in the northern extratropics by 6-11 ppb while underestimating by up to 18 ppb in the southern tropics over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Most models underestimate the spatial variability of the annual mean lower tropospheric concentrations in the extratropics of both hemispheres by up to 70 %. The ensemble mean also overestimates the seasonal amplitude by 25-70 % in the northern extratropics and overestimates the inter-hemispheric gradient by about 30 % in the lower and middle troposphere. A part of the discrepancies can be attributed to the 5-year reanalysis data for the decadal model simulations. However, these differences are less evident with the current sonde network. To estimate ozonesonde sampling biases, we computed model bias separately for global coverage and the ozonesonde network. The ozonesonde sampling bias in the evaluated model bias for the seasonal mean concentration relative to global

  19. Syntactic Reconstruction and Reanalysis, Semantic Dead Ends, and Prefrontal Cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ken Ramshøj

    2010-01-01

    The left inferior frontal gyrus (LIFG) is crucially has been found to be involved in syntactic processing of various kinds. This study investigates the cortical effects of two types of syntactic processes: (i) Reconstruction in ellipsis (recovery of left-out material given by context, More people...... to reanalyze. Reanalysis and reconstruction require additional syntactic processing and were predicted to increase activation in areas otherwise involved in structural computation: LIFG (BA 44, 45), premotor BA 6, and posterior temporal BA 21, 22. This was borne out. The results showed an interaction effect...

  20. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Rosa Castro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a li- neal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.

  1. Modeling of Kefir Production with Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin Nail Akgül

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The fermentation is ended with pH 4.6 values in industrial production of kefir. In this study, the incubation temperature, the incubation time and inoculums of culture were chose as variable parameters of kefir. In conventional control systems, the value of pH can be found by trial method. In these systems, if the number of input parameters is greater, the method of trial and error creates a system dependent on the person as well as troublesome. Fuzzy logic can be used in such cases. Modeling studies with this fuzzy logic control are examined in two portions. The first part consists of fuzzy rules and membership functions, while the second part consists of clarify. Kefir incubation temperature between 20 and 25°C, the incubation period between 18 to 22 hours and the inoculum ratio of culture between 1-5% are selected for optimum production conditions. Three separate fuzzy sets (triangular membership function are used to blur the incubation temperature, the incubation time and the inoculum ratio of culture. Because the membership function numbers belonging to the the input parameters are 3 units, 3x3x3=27 line rule is obtained by multiplying these numbers. The table of fuzzy rules was obtained using the method of Mamdani. The membership function values were determined by the method of average weight using three trapezoidal area of membership functions created for clarification. The success of the system will be found, comparing the numerical values obtained with pH values that should be. Eventually, to achieve the desired pH value of 4.6 in the production of kefir, with the using of fuzzy logic, the workload of people will be decreased and the productivity of business can be increased. In this case, it can be provided savings in both cost and time.

  2. Generic modeling propositions for configuring, sale, product and production

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang , L.; Vareilles , Élise; Aldanondo , Michel; Helo , P.

    2012-01-01

    IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM), HONG KONG, DEC 10-13, 2012; International audience; Facilitating product customization, configuration has attracted much attention from both academia and industry alike. However, the available studies and the reported systems focus on sales or product configuration while leaving other important issues in developing customized products unaddressed. In this study, we propose a new configuration concept: i...

  3. Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cássia Pianca

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007 obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1, Southeast (W2, Central (W3, East (W4, Northeast (W5 and North (W6. W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.O presente trabalho apresenta o clima de ondas da região ao largo da costa brasileira com base em uma série temporal de onze anos (Jan/1997-Dez/2007 obtida através de dados de reanálise do modelo operacional NWW3. Informações sobre o regime de ondas no Brasil são escassas e baseadas em observações ocasionais de curto período, sendo a presente análise inédita na escala espaço-temporal apresentada. Para a definição do clima de ondas foram definidos e analisados seis setores ao longo da quebra da plataforma continental brasileira: Sul (W1, Sudeste (W2, Central (W3, Leste (W4, Nordeste (W5 e Norte

  4. A Reanalysis of Toomela (2003: Spurious measurement error as cause for common variance between personality factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MATTHIAS ZIEGLER

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The present article reanalyzed data collected by Toomela (2003. The data contain personality self ratings and cognitive ability test results from n = 912 men with military background. In his original article Toomela showed that in the group with the highest cognitive ability, Big-Five-Neuroticism and -Conscientiousness were substantially correlated and could no longer be clearly separated using exploratory factor analysis. The present reanalysis was based on the hypothesis that a spurious measurement error caused by situational demand was responsible. This means, people distorted their answers. Furthermore it was hypothesized that this situational demand was felt due to a person’s military rank but not due to his intelligence. Using a multigroup structural equation model our hypothesis could be confirmed. Moreover, the results indicate that an uncorrelated trait model might represent personalities better when situational demand is partialized. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

  5. Climatological and regional characteristics of supercell tornado occurrence based on a long-term reanalysis of tornado parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Soichiro; Nohara, Daisuke; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates tornado climatology in Japan in terms of the regionalization of tornado intensity. A 50-year reanalysis dataset (the horizontal resolution of 5 km and hourly interval), produced by downscaling using the WRF mesoscale model and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, is used to estimate tornado parameters such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and 3-km storm relative helicity (SReH). Energy helicity index (EHI) is also calculated as a composite parameter. Based on a long-term reanalysis data of tornado parameters, the number of times simultaneously exceeding threshold values is counted for SReH and CAPE parameters. The same procedure is done for EHI parameter. The thresholds are set from meteorological analysis of F3 tornadoes that are currently the most intense in Japan. Results indicate that the Pacific side of Japan along the south coast is the most favorable region for the occurrence of the most intense scale of tornado. This is consistent with the fact that the paths of most of all F3 tornadoes are include in this high-frequency region in exceeding thresholds. In other hand, approximately one-order smaller frequency in exceeding than the Pacific sides is evaluated in the Japan Sea side, which suggests topographic effects of blocking humid unstable air mass transported from the Pacific Ocean. The tornado intensity region evaluated by our approach is useful for a probabilistic hazard analysis of tornado wind speeds in the implementation of impact assessment of tornadoes for nuclear power plants. (author)

  6. Pion production model - connection between dynamics and quark models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, T.-S. H.; Sato, T.

    2000-05-17

    The authors discuss the difficulties in testing the hadron models by using the N{sup *} parameters extracted from the empirical amplitude analyses of the {pi}N and {gamma}N reaction data. As an alternative or perhaps a more advantageous approach, they present a Hamiltonian formulation that can relate the pion production dynamics and the constituent quark models of N{sup *} structure. The application of the approach in investigating the {Delta} and N{sup *}(S{sub 11}) excitations is reviewed. It is found that while the {Delta} excitation can be described satisfactory, the {pi}N scattering in S{sub 11} channel can not be described by the constituent quark models based on either the one-gluon-exchange or one-meson-exchange mechanisms. A phenomenological quark-quark potential has been constructed to reproduce the S{sub 11} amplitude.

  7. Proposal for product development model focused on ce certification methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalia Marcia Goulart Pinheiro

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a critical analysis comparing 21 product development models in order to identify whether these structures meet the demands Product Certification of the European Community (CE. Furthermore, it presents a product development model, comprising the steps in the models analyzed, including improvements in activities for referred product certification. The proposed improvements are justified by the growing quest for the internationalization of products and processes within companies.

  8. Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tietsche, Steffen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zuo, Hao; Mogensen, Kristian

    2017-08-01

    We discuss the state of Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis Ocean ReAnalysis Pilot 5 (ORAP5). Among other innovations, ORAP5 now assimilates observations of sea ice concentration using a univariate 3DVar-FGAT scheme. We focus on the period 1993-2012 and emphasize the evaluation of model performance with respect to recent observations of sea ice thickness. We find that sea ice concentration in ORAP5 is close to assimilated observations, with root mean square analysis residuals of less than 5 % in most regions. However, larger discrepancies exist for the Labrador Sea and east of Greenland during winter owing to biases in the free-running model. Sea ice thickness is evaluated against three different observational data sets that have sufficient spatial and temporal coverage: ICESat, IceBridge and SMOSIce. Large-scale features like the gradient between the thickest ice in the Canadian Arctic and thinner ice in the Siberian Arctic are simulated well by ORAP5. However, some biases remain. Of special note is the model's tendency to accumulate too thick ice in the Beaufort Gyre. The root mean square error of ORAP5 sea ice thickness with respect to ICESat observations is 1.0 m, which is on par with the well-established PIOMAS model sea ice reconstruction. Interannual variability and trend of sea ice volume in ORAP5 also compare well with PIOMAS and ICESat estimates. We conclude that, notwithstanding a relatively simple sea ice data assimilation scheme, the overall state of Arctic sea ice in ORAP5 is in good agreement with observations and will provide useful initial conditions for predictions.

  9. The Structured Intuitive Model for Product Line Economics (SIMPLE)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Clements, Paul C; McGregor, John D; Cohen, Sholom G

    2005-01-01

    .... This report presents the Structured Intuitive Model of Product Line Economics (SIMPLE), a general-purpose business model that supports the estimation of the costs and benefits in a product line development organization...

  10. Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golchev Riste

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

  11. Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard; Liu, Chunlei

    2017-04-01

    The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty (Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013; Roberts et al., 2016). A combination of satellite-derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere (TOA) adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally (Liu et al., 2015). Land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach using relations at each grid point with the consideration of snowmelt to improve regional realism. The energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis input data and products. Zonal multiannual mean surface flux uncertainty is estimated to be less than 5 Wm-2 but much larger uncertainty is likely for regional monthly values. The meridional energy transport is calculated using the net surface heat fluxes estimated in this study and the result shows better agreement with observations in Atlantic than before. The derived turbulent fluxes (difference between the net heat flux and the CERES EBAF radiative flux at surface) also have good agreement with those from OAFLUX dataset and buoy observations. Decadal changes in the global energy budget and the hemisphere energy imbalances are quantified and present day cross-equator heat transports is re-evaluated as 0.22±0.15 PW southward by the atmosphere and 0.32±0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks (Roemmich et al., 2006) . Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res., Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD

  12. Reanalysis of and attribution to near-surface ozone concentrations in Sweden during 1990-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Camilla; Alpfjord, Heléne; Robertson, Lennart; Karlsson, Per Erik; Engardt, Magnuz

    2017-11-01

    We have constructed two data sets of hourly resolution reanalyzed near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations for the period 1990-2013 for Sweden. Long-term simulations from a chemistry-transport model (CTM) covering Europe were combined with hourly ozone concentration observations at Swedish and Norwegian background measurement sites using retrospective variational data analysis. The reanalysis data sets show improved performance over the original CTM when compared to independent observations. In one of the reanalyses, we included all available hourly near-surface O3 observations, whilst in the other we carefully selected time-consistent observations. Based on the second reanalysis we investigated statistical aspects of the distribution of the near-surface O3 concentrations, focusing on the linear trend over the 24-year period. We show that high near-surface O3 concentrations are decreasing and low O3 concentrations are increasing, which is reflected in observed improvement of many health and vegetation indices (apart from those with a low threshold). Using the CTM we also conducted sensitivity simulations to quantify the causes of the observed change, focusing on three factors: change in hemispheric background concentrations, meteorology and anthropogenic emissions. The rising low concentrations of near-surface O3 in Sweden are caused by a combination of all three factors, whilst the decrease in the highest O3 concentrations is caused by European O3 precursor emissions reductions. While studying the impact of anthropogenic emissions changes, we identified systematic differences in the modeled trend compared to observations that must be caused by incorrect trends in the utilized emissions inventory or by too high sensitivity of our model to emissions changes.

  13. Assessment of the European Severe Convective Storm Climatology using Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pistotnik, Georg; Groenemeijer, Pieter; Kühne, Thilo

    2013-04-01

    Thunderstorms and their accompanying phenomena like large hail, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and excessive precipitation are increasingly recognized as an important hazard to life and property in Europe. Within the project STEPCLIM ("Severe Thunderstorm Evaluation and Predictability in Climate Models"), we link historic severe thunderstorm events in Europe to atmospheric conditions resolved by reanalysis data. The aim is to find a relation between quantities, which can be represented by relatively coarse climate models, and the occurrence of short-lived and local severe weather phenomena associated with convection. At a later stage, this relation will be applied to climate forecast data, so that the effects of climate change on the frequency and intensity of severe convective storms can be investigated. A set of parameters is defined for the characterization of the local state of the atmosphere at any given point in place and time. These parameters represent the "ingredients" for severe thunderstorms, namely instability, vertical wind shear, and a measure of support for convective initiation. They are calculated from 6-hourly ERA-Interim reanalysis fields (1979-2011). The such derived fields are compared with the occurrence or non-occurrence of severe weather phenomena according to the quality-controlled severe storm reports collected in the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD). A logistic regression is then fitted in order to find the best relation between a given combination of parameters and the associated severe weather probability. This relation is postulated to be invariant against any changes in climate, an assumption that is justified by the physics-based nature of the chosen parameters. With this restriction, the derived relation can be used to estimate future severe weather frequencies based on modeled climatic changes of the underlying parameter distributions. In this presentation, emphasis is put on the used methodology and on a way to deal with

  14. tavg1_2d_mld_Nx: MERRA Simulated 2D Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) MERRA-Land reanalysis, GEOSldas-MERRALand, Time Average 1-hourly 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MST1NXMLD) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis data product that provides, in addition to atmospheric...

  15. tavgU_2d_mld_Nx: MERRA Simulated 2D Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) MERRA-Land reanalysis, GEOSldas-MERRALand, Time Average Diurnal 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MSTUNXMLD) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis data product that provides, in addition to atmospheric...

  16. tavgM_2d_mld_Nx: MERRA Simulated 2D Incremental Analysis Update (IAU) MERRA-Land reanalysis, GEOSldas-MERRALand, Time Average Monthly Mean 0.667 x 0.5 degree V5.2.0 (MSTMNXMLD) at GES DISC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis data product that provides, in addition to atmospheric...

  17. Integrate System Modeling for Design and Production Planning of High Quality Products Considering Failure Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoyama, Kazuhiro; Koga, Tsuyoshi

    2009-07-01

    Since the product recall problem is recently observed, realizing design and production activities that can prevent occurrences of a product failure has been becoming a serious issue. This paper proposes "the Synthetic design approach of a product and a production process which enables to reduce occurrences of a product failure from the initial stage of a product development." In order to realize this proposed concept as a specific system, the integrated model of the failure information in the design and production is introduced. This paper shows some examples of design and production for a circuit breaker and an automobile with considering a design error and a production failure using developed prototype system.

  18. Comprehensive graphical presentation of data from incurred sample reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudzki, Piotr J; Biecek, Przemysław; Kaza, Michał

    2017-06-01

    Incurred sample reanalysis (ISR) contributes to the reliability of pharmacokinetic studies. Despite regulatory guidelines having adopted ISR methodology, graphical presentation of data has been overlooked. Different graphs were tested for datasets including limited, standard and large numbers of ISR pairs. The datasets covered both passed and failed cases. We have developed a combination of complementary plots enabling the visual inspection of ISR data quality: %difference versus mean concentration and cumulative ISR plot. The former shows individual ISR datapoints and concentration-dependent trends, while the latter presents the contribution of individual pairs to the overall result as well as time-dependent trends. The proposed visualization of ISR data shows at a glance whether acceptance criteria for each sample and whole experiment are met or not. Standardized graphical presentation of ISR outcomes may increase quality of bioanalytical data.

  19. Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor Data Using GPS Zenith Delays and Global Reanalysis Data in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available GPS has become a very effective tool to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV information, which is important for weather forecasting and nowcasting. The number of geodetic GNSS stations set up in China has substantially increased over the last few decades. However, GPS PWV derivation requires surface pressure to calculate the precise zenith hydrostatic delay and weighted mean temperature to map the zenith wet delay to precipitable water vapor. GPS stations without collocated meteorological sensors can retrieve water vapor using standard atmosphere parameters, which lead to a decrease in accuracy. In this paper, a method of interpolating NWP reanalysis data to site locations for generating corresponding meteorological elements is explored over China. The NCEP FNL dataset provided by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and over 600 observed stations from different sources was selected to assess the quality of the results. A one-year experiment was performed in our study. The types of stations selected include meteorological sites, GPS stations, radio sounding stations, and a sun photometer station. Compared with real surface measurements, the accuracy of the interpolated surface pressure and air temperature both meet the requirements of GPS PWV derivation in most areas; however, the interpolated surface air temperature exhibits lower precision than the interpolated surface pressure. At more than 96% of selected stations, PWV differences caused by the differences between the interpolation results and real measurements were less than 1.0 mm. Our study also indicates that relief amplitude exerts great influence on the accuracy of the interpolation approach. Unsatisfactory interpolation results always occurred in areas of strong relief. GPS PWV data generated from interpolated meteorological parameters are consistent with other PWV products (radio soundings, the NWP reanalysis dataset, and sun photometer PWV data. The

  20. Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Classified Marketing of Agricultural Products

    OpenAIRE

    WANG, Fengying

    2014-01-01

    Classified marketing of agricultural products was analyzed using the Logistic Regression Model. This method can take full advantage of information in agricultural product database, to find factors influencing best selling degree of agricultural products, and make quantitative analysis accordingly. Using this model, it is also able to predict sales of agricultural products, and provide reference for mapping out individualized sales strategy for popularizing agricultural products.

  1. Description, Modelling and Design of Production Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Peter; Rudolph, Carsten

    1997-01-01

    Design of production systems are rarely an activity in which decision makers in most production companies have much experience. In future, this activity is to be more recurrent due to more and more frequent changes in the production task. Consequently, the decision makers are in need of better ma...

  2. Information Sharing In Shipbuilding based on the Product State Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    The paper provides a review of product modelling technologies and the overall architecture for the Product State Model (PSM) environment as a basis for how dynamically updated product data can improve control of production activities. Especially, the paper focuses on the circumstances prevailing...... in a one-of-a-kind manufacturing environment like the shipbuilding industry, where product modelling technologies already have proved their worth in the design and engineering phases of shipbuilding and in the operation phase. However, the handling of product information on the shop floor is not yet...

  3. Organic production in a dynamic CGE model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2004-01-01

    Concerns about the impact of modern agriculture on the environment have in recent years led to an interest in supporting the development of organic farming. In addition to environmental benefits, the aim is to encourage the provision of other “multifunctional” properties of organic farming...... agricultural sector and each secondary food industry has been split into two separate industries: one producing organic products, the other producing conventional products. The substitution nests in private consumption have also been altered to emphasise the pair wise substitution between organic...... and conventional products. One of the most important regulations regarding organic production concerns the conversion period, that is the period where the farmer starts to use organic production methods until the farmland and the production are considered organic. Currently organic production methods have...

  4. A Model for the Evaluation of Educational Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Charles L.

    A model for the evaluation of educational products based on experience with development of three such products is described. The purpose of the evaluation model is to indicate the flow of evaluation activity as products undergo development. Evaluation is given Stufflebeam's definition as the process of delineating, obtaining, and providing useful…

  5. development of an integrated production inventory model for a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... production inventory system is extended for non-instantaneous production and integrated with concept of inventory models with cost changes. Integer multiple parameters are used as a check factor for cost minimization. A numerical example is also presented. KeyWords Inventory, Production, Optimization, Modeling

  6. Product Trial Processing (PTP): a model approach from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Product Trial Processing (PTP): a model approach from theconsumer's perspective. ... Global Journal of Social Sciences ... Among the constructs used in the model of consumer's processing of product trail includes; experiential and non- experiential attributes, perceived validity of product trial, consumer perceived expertise, ...

  7. Ensemble-based Experimental Atmospheric Reanalysis using a Global Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean GCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komori, N.; Enomoto, T.; Miyoshi, T.; Yamazaki, A.; Kuwano-Yoshida, A.; Taguchi, B.

    2016-02-01

    To enhance the capability of the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with the Atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) for the Earth Simulator (AFES), a new system has been developed by replacing AFES with the Coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM for the Earth Simulator (CFES). An initial test of the prototype of the CFES-LETKF system has been completed successfully, assimilating atmospheric observational data (NCEP PREPBUFR archived at UCAR) every 6 hours to update the atmospheric variables, whereas the oceanic variables are kept unchanged throughout the assimilation procedure. An experimental retrospective analysis-forecast cycle with the coupled system (CLERA-A) starts on August 1, 2008, and the atmospheric initial conditions (63 members) are taken from the second generation of AFES-LETKF experimental ensemble reanalysis (ALERA2). The ALERA2 analyses are also used as forcing of stand-alone 63-member ensemble simulations with the Ocean GCM for the Earth Simulator (EnOFES), from which the oceanic initial conditions for the CLERA-A are taken. The ensemble spread of SST is larger in CLERA-A than in EnOFES, suggesting positive feedback between the ocean and the atmosphere. Although SST in CLERA-A suffers from the common biases among many coupled GCMs, the ensemble spreads of air temperature and specific humidity in the lower troposphere are larger in CLERA-A than in ALERA2. Thus replacement of AFES with CFES successfully contributes to mitigate an underestimation of the ensemble spread near the surface resulting from the single boundary condition for all ensemble members and the lack of atmosphere-ocean interaction. In addition, the basin-scale structure of surface atmospheric variables over the tropical Pacific is well reconstructed from the ensemble correlation in CLERA-A but not ALERA2. This suggests that use of a coupled GCM rather than an atmospheric GCM could be important even for atmospheric reanalysis with an ensemble-based data assimilation system.

  8. Property Modelling for Applications in Chemical Product and Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    Physical-chemical properties of pure chemicals and their mixtures play an important role in the design of chemicals based products and the processes that manufacture them. Although, the use of experimental data in design and analysis of chemicals based products and their processes is desirable...... such as database, property model library, model parameter regression, and, property-model based product-process design will be presented. The database contains pure component and mixture data for a wide range of organic chemicals. The property models are based on the combined group contribution and atom...... modeling tools in design and analysis of chemical product-process design, including biochemical processes will be highlighted....

  9. A Model to Improve the Quality Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan GOKKAYA

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The topic of this paper is to present a solution who can improve product qualityfollowing the idea: “Unlike people who have verbal skills, machines use "sign language"to communicate what hurts or what has invaded their system’. Recognizing the "signs"or symptoms that the machine conveys is a required skill for those who work withmachines and are responsible for their care and feeding. The acoustic behavior of technical products is predominantly defined in the design stage, although the acoustic characteristics of machine structures can be analyze and give a solution for the actual products and create a new generation of products. The paper describes the steps intechnological process for a product and the solution who will reduce the costs with the non-quality of product and improve the management quality.

  10. A model for 'sustainable' US beef production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshel, Gidon; Shepon, Alon; Shaket, Taga; Cotler, Brett D; Gilutz, Stav; Giddings, Daniel; Raymo, Maureen E; Milo, Ron

    2018-01-01

    Food production dominates land, water and fertilizer use and is a greenhouse gas source. In the United States, beef production is the main agricultural resource user overall, as well as per kcal or g of protein. Here, we offer a possible, non-unique, definition of 'sustainable' beef as that subsisting exclusively on grass and by-products, and quantify its expected US production as a function of pastureland use. Assuming today's pastureland characteristics, all of the pastureland that US beef currently use can sustainably deliver ≈45% of current production. Rewilding this pastureland's less productive half (≈135 million ha) can still deliver ≈43% of current beef production. In all considered scenarios, the ≈32 million ha of high-quality cropland that beef currently use are reallocated for plant-based food production. These plant items deliver 2- to 20-fold more calories and protein than the replaced beef and increase the delivery of protective nutrients, but deliver no B 12 . Increased deployment of rapid rotational grazing or grassland multi-purposing may increase beef production capacity.

  11. The economic production lot size model extended to include more than one production rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2001-01-01

    We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. Moreover, the production rates, as well as their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. First, we show that all production rates should be choosen in the interval...

  12. Parallel Development of Products and New Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten; Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård

    2014-01-01

    The perception of product development and the practical execution of product development in professional organizations have undergone dramatic changes in recent years. Many of these chances relate to introduction of broader and more cross-disciplinary views that involves new organizational functi...... and innovation management the 4th generation models are increasingly including the concept business models and business model innovation....

  13. REVIEW OF AQUACULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM MODELS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The success and profitability of aquaculture production is highly dependent on the proper management employed during the culture period. This management is synonymous with water management since water of suitable quality and quantity is a pre-requisite for any successful aquacultural production. The knowledge of ...

  14. REVIEW OF AQUACULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEM MODELS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The success and profitability of aquaculture production is highly dependent on the proper management employed during the culture period. This management is synonymous with water management since water of suitable quality and quantity is a pre-requisite for any successful aquacultural production. The knowledge of ...

  15. Modelling production system architectures in the early phases of product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir; Ravn, Poul Martin; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    2016-01-01

    on – leading to an improved basis for prioritizing activities in the project. Requirements for the contents of the framework are presented, and literature on production and system models is reviewed. The production system architecture modelling framework is founded on methods and approaches in literature......This article suggests a framework for modelling a production system architecture in the early phases of product development.The challenge in these phases is that the products to be produced are not completely defined and yet decisions need to be made early in the process on what investments...... are needed and appropriate to enable determination of obtainable product quality. In order to meet this challenge, it is suggested that a visual modelling framework be adopted that clarifies which product and production features are known at a specific time of the project and which features will be worked...

  16. Model optimizing production structure of coal enterprise and its application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Q. [China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou (China). College of Business and Adminsitration

    2000-05-01

    The models which optimize the product structure and maximize the profit of a coal enterprise were established. These models are mainly the increment and total analysis model for determining the optimum coal preparation scheme, the model of management risk analysis, and the linear plan model for deciding the optimum product structure under the condition of a given technology. They have been applied to coal enterprise in practice and obtained obvious economic benefit. This shows that the models are scientifically reasonable and efficient, and are valuable in designing preparation plant and in planning production under the condition of market economy. 2 refs., 2 tabs.

  17. Design models in the development of mechatronic products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Tufail; Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

    2012-01-01

    In view of widespread application of mechatronic systems and the competition to offer customized products at high quality and low cost, there has been considerable attention to introduce new methods and models in this regard. This paper explores design process of mechatronic product development...... with the aid of models. The role of software not only as part of the product but also in the development process. These models contribute to product structuring and evaluation of design process by reducing the complexity and their use for product customization....

  18. A combined model of sediment production, supply and transport

    OpenAIRE

    M. Fujita; K. Yamanoi; H. Izumiyama

    2015-01-01

    In previous sediment-runoff models, the sediment production rates of mountain slopes, and the sediment supply rates to streams typically have been developed using empirical methods. A process-based model for sediment production and supply is, however, required for more exact simulations of sediment runoff. In this study, we develop a method to calculate the sediment production rate due to both freeze-thaw action and the sediment supply rate (i.e. erosion rate of talus). These numerical models...

  19. From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joohoan

    Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the…

  20. Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric D Vugrin

    Full Text Available Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products.We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors.Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity

  1. Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Coleman, Blair N.; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health

  2. Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vugrin, Eric D; Rostron, Brian L; Verzi, Stephen J; Brodsky, Nancy S; Brown, Theresa J; Choiniere, Conrad J; Coleman, Blair N; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J

    2015-01-01

    Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

  3. Product modelling in the seafood industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan

    1997-01-01

    The paper addresses the aspects of Concurrent Engineering (CE) as a means to obtain integrated product development in the seafood industry. It is assumed that the future New Product Development (NPD) in seafood industry companies will shift from being retailer driven and reactive to be more company...... driven and proactive to comply with the increasing competition, in such a way that the fish processor issues new products covering both the current and especially latent future consumer demands. This implies a need for new systematic approaches in the NPD as procedures and tools, which integrate...

  4. An economic production model for time dependent demand with rework and multiple production setups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.R. Singh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a model for time dependent demand with multiple productions and rework setups. Production is demand dependent and greater than the demand rate. Production facility produces items in m production setups and one rework setup (m, 1 policy. The major reason of reverse logistic and green supply chain is rework, so it reduces the cost of production and other ecological problems. Most of the researchers developed a rework model without deteriorating items. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is shown to describe the model.

  5. Kinetic model for polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) production by ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    2010-05-24

    May 24, 2010 ... Key words: Kinetic model, polyhydroxyalkanoates, Hydrogenophaga pseudoflava, logistic model, Monod, biopolymer. INTRODUCTION. Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) is a biopolymer that can be used as a biodegradable thermoplastic material for waste management strategies and biocompatibility in medical.

  6. Modeling intermediate product selection under production and storage capacity limitations in food processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilic, Onur Alper; Akkerman, Renzo; Grunow, Martin

    2009-01-01

    In the food industry products are usually characterized by their recipes, which are specified by various quality attributes. For end products, this is given by customer requirements, but for intermediate products, the recipes can be chosen in such a way that raw material procurement costs...... with production and inventory planning, thereby considering the production and storage capacity limitations. The resulting model can be used to solve an important practical problem typical for many food processing industries....

  7. Extreme winds over Denmark from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frank, H.P.

    2001-01-01

    An extreme wind analysis of wind speed calculated in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is done for grid points over and near Denmark. Winds at 10 m, 850 hPa, and geostrophic winds at 850 hPa, 1000 hPa, and at the sea level are analyzed. At 10 m height the expectedextreme wind with a return period of 50...... at 850 hPa and the geostrophic wind at 850 hPa or 1000 hPa yield very similar extreme winds of approximately 42ms-1. The geostrophic wind calculated from the surface pressure is approximately 45 ms-1 in central Denmark. The geostrophic winds at 1000 hPa are slightly stronger than at 850 hPa, which...... are somewhat greater than the actual wind at 850 hPa.Transformations to a wind at 10 m over a surface with roughness 5 cm with the help of the drag law yield extreme winds, which are approximately 10-12 % less than from surface measurements. The 850 hPa winds and the geostrophic wind calculated from thesurface...

  8. Reanalysis of "Raptorex kriegsteini": a juvenile tyrannosaurid dinosaur from Mongolia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denver W Fowler

    Full Text Available The carnivorous Tyrannosauridae are among the most iconic dinosaurs: typified by large body size, tiny forelimbs, and massive robust skulls with laterally thickened teeth. The recently described small-bodied tyrannosaurid Raptorex kreigsteini is exceptional as its discovery proposes that many of the distinctive anatomical traits of derived tyrannosaurids were acquired in the Early Cretaceous, before the evolution of large body size. This inference depends on two core interpretations: that the holotype (LH PV18 derives from the Lower Cretaceous of China, and that despite its small size, it is a subadult or young adult. Here we show that the published data is equivocal regarding stratigraphic position and that ontogenetic reanalysis shows there is no reason to conclude that LH PV18 has reached this level of maturity. The probable juvenile status of LH PV18 makes its use as a holotype unreliable, since diagnostic features of Raptorex may be symptomatic of its immature status, rather than its actual phylogenetic position. These findings are consistent with the original sale description of LH PV18 as a juvenile Tarbosaurus from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia. Consequently, we suggest that there is currently no evidence to support the conclusion that tyrannosaurid skeletal design first evolved in the Early Cretaceous at small body size.

  9. Reanalysis of "Raptorex kriegsteini": a juvenile tyrannosaurid dinosaur from Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Denver W; Woodward, Holly N; Freedman, Elizabeth A; Larson, Peter L; Horner, John R

    2011-01-01

    The carnivorous Tyrannosauridae are among the most iconic dinosaurs: typified by large body size, tiny forelimbs, and massive robust skulls with laterally thickened teeth. The recently described small-bodied tyrannosaurid Raptorex kreigsteini is exceptional as its discovery proposes that many of the distinctive anatomical traits of derived tyrannosaurids were acquired in the Early Cretaceous, before the evolution of large body size. This inference depends on two core interpretations: that the holotype (LH PV18) derives from the Lower Cretaceous of China, and that despite its small size, it is a subadult or young adult. Here we show that the published data is equivocal regarding stratigraphic position and that ontogenetic reanalysis shows there is no reason to conclude that LH PV18 has reached this level of maturity. The probable juvenile status of LH PV18 makes its use as a holotype unreliable, since diagnostic features of Raptorex may be symptomatic of its immature status, rather than its actual phylogenetic position. These findings are consistent with the original sale description of LH PV18 as a juvenile Tarbosaurus from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia. Consequently, we suggest that there is currently no evidence to support the conclusion that tyrannosaurid skeletal design first evolved in the Early Cretaceous at small body size.

  10. Shared probe design and existing microarray reanalysis using PICKY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chou Hui-Hsien

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Large genomes contain families of highly similar genes that cannot be individually identified by microarray probes. This limitation is due to thermodynamic restrictions and cannot be resolved by any computational method. Since gene annotations are updated more frequently than microarrays, another common issue facing microarray users is that existing microarrays must be routinely reanalyzed to determine probes that are still useful with respect to the updated annotations. Results PICKY 2.0 can design shared probes for sets of genes that cannot be individually identified using unique probes. PICKY 2.0 uses novel algorithms to track sharable regions among genes and to strictly distinguish them from other highly similar but nontarget regions during thermodynamic comparisons. Therefore, PICKY does not sacrifice the quality of shared probes when choosing them. The latest PICKY 2.1 includes the new capability to reanalyze existing microarray probes against updated gene sets to determine probes that are still valid to use. In addition, more precise nonlinear salt effect estimates and other improvements are added, making PICKY 2.1 more versatile to microarray users. Conclusions Shared probes allow expressed gene family members to be detected; this capability is generally more desirable than not knowing anything about these genes. Shared probes also enable the design of cross-genome microarrays, which facilitate multiple species identification in environmental samples. The new nonlinear salt effect calculation significantly increases the precision of probes at a lower buffer salt concentration, and the probe reanalysis function improves existing microarray result interpretations.

  11. Criteria Assessment Model for Sustainable Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Turan, Faiz; Johan, Kartina; Hisyamudin Muhd Nor, Nik

    2016-11-01

    The instability in today's market and the ever increasing and emerging demands for mass customized and hybrid products by customers, are driving companies and decision makers to seek for cost effective and time efficient improvements in their product development process. Design concept evaluation which is the end of conceptual design is one of the most critical decision points in product development. It relates to the final success of product development, because poor criteria assessment in design concept evaluation can rarely compensated at the later stages. This has led to real pressure for the adaptation of new developmental architecture and operational parameters to remain competitive in the market. In this paper, a new integrated design concept evaluation based on fuzzy-technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) is presented, and it also attempts to incorporate sustainability practices in assessing the criteria. Prior to Fuzzy-TOPSIS, a new scale of “Weighting criteria” for survey process is developed to quantify the evaluation criteria. This method will help engineers to improve the effectiveness and objectivity of the sustainable product development. Case example from industry is presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology. The result of the example shows that the new integrated method provides an alternative to existing methods of design concept evaluation.

  12. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  13. A reanalysis of ozone on Mars from assimilation of SPICAM observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, James A.; Lewis, Stephen R.; Patel, Manish R.; Lefèvre, Franck

    2018-03-01

    We have assimilated for the first time SPICAM retrievals of total ozone into a Martian global circulation model to provide a global reanalysis of the ozone cycle. Disagreement in total ozone between model prediction and assimilation is observed between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180° and at northern polar (60°N-90°N) latitudes during northern fall (LS = 150-195°). Large percentage differences in total ozone at northern fall polar latitudes identified through the assimilation process are linked with excessive northward transport of water vapour west of Tharsis and over Arabia Terra. Modelling biases in water vapour can also explain the underestimation of total ozone between 45°S-10°S from LS = 135-180°. Heterogeneous uptake of odd hydrogen radicals are unable to explain the outstanding underestimation of northern polar total ozone in late northern fall. Assimilation of total ozone retrievals results in alterations of the modelled spatial distribution of ozone in the southern polar winter high altitude ozone layer. This illustrates the potential use of assimilation methods in constraining total ozone where SPICAM cannot observe, in a region where total ozone is especially important for potential investigations of the polar dynamics.

  14. Prognostic modeling of total global steel production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Gajdzik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this publication was to present the results of prognoses for steel production volume in the world. This work was created on the basis of statistical data. The volume of total steel production in the world from 2000 to 2015 was used in order to create the prognosis. The prognoses were created until 2020 – for a period of 5 years. Econometric methods were used to execute the prognoses. The minimum value of error (square root was assumed as optimisation criterion of the point value of a prognosis. Individual prognoses were grouped according to change scenarios for the studied phenomenon, taking into account the trend nature.

  15. Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century Reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Brönnimann

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1 kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2 ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011 that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures. In cruise (1, the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2, after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1 and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2 are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the

  16. Product Trial Processing (PTP): a model approach from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Product trial is described as consumer's first usage experience with a company's brand or product that is most important in determining brand attributes and the intention to make a purchase. Among the constructs used in the model of consumer's processing of product trail includes; experiential and non- experiential ...

  17. Predictive ability of egg production models | Oni | Nigerian Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The monthly egg production data of a strain of Rhode Island chickens were used to compare three mathematical models (the Parabolic exponential, Wood's Gamma and modified Gamma by McNally) on their ability to predict 52 week total egg production from part-production at 16, 20, and 24 weeks, on a hen-housed basis.

  18. Concurrent engineering and product models in seafood companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan; Børresen, Torger

    1998-01-01

    Concurrent Engineering (CE) can provide an improved approach to product development for extending the lines of seafood products. Information technology (IT) support tools based on product models can provide an integrated and simultaneous approach for specifying new recipes. The seafood industry c...

  19. Applying linear programming model to aggregate production planning of coated peanut products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohmah, W. G.; Purwaningsih, I.; Santoso, EF S. M.

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this study was to set the overall production level for each grade of coated peanut product to meet market demands with a minimum production cost. The linear programming model was applied in this study. The proposed model was used to minimize the total production cost based on the limited demand of coated peanuts. The demand values applied to the method was previously forecasted using time series method and production capacity aimed to plan the aggregate production for the next 6 month period. The results indicated that the production planning using the proposed model has resulted a better fitted pattern to the customer demands compared to that of the company policy. The production capacity of product family A, B, and C was relatively stable for the first 3 months of the planning periods, then began to fluctuate over the next 3 months. While, the production capacity of product family D and E was fluctuated over the 6-month planning periods, with the values in the range of 10,864 - 32,580 kg and 255 – 5,069 kg, respectively. The total production cost for all products was 27.06% lower than the production cost calculated using the company’s policy-based method.

  20. Modeling pure culture heterotrophic production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mozumder, Md Salatul Islam; Goormachtigh, Laurens; Garcia-Gonzalez, Linsey; De Wever, Heleen; Volcke, Eveline I P

    2014-03-01

    In this contribution a mechanistic model describing the production of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) through pure-culture fermentation was developed, calibrated and validated for two different substrates, namely glucose and waste glycerol. In both cases, non-growth-associated PHB production was triggered by applying nitrogen limitation. The occurrence of some growth-associated PHB production besides non-growth-associated PHB production was demonstrated, although it is inhibited in the presence of nitrogen. Other phenomena observed experimentally and described by the model included biomass growth on PHB and non-linear product inhibition of PHB production. The accumulated impurities from the waste substrate negatively affected the obtained maximum PHB content. Overall, the developed mathematical model provided an accurate prediction of the dynamic behavior of heterotrophic biomass growth and PHB production in a two-phase pure culture system. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Developing and modelling of ohmic heating for solid food products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Frosch, Stina

    Heating of solid foods using the conventional technologies is time-consuming due to the fact that heat transfer is limited by internal conduction within the product. This is a big challenge to food manufactures who wish to heat the product faster to the desired core temperature and to ensure more...... uniform quality across the product. Ohmic heating is one of the novel technologies potentially solving this problem by allowing volumetric heating of the product and thereby reducing or eliminating temperature gradients within the product. However, the application of ohmic heating for solid food products...... and current were continuously measured inside the product. The model has been validated using the experimental data. Good agreement was achieved between model predictions and the experimental values. The model has been utilized to predict the temperature distribution and to control the process by tracking...

  2. STEP - Product Model Data Sharing and Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroszynski, Uri

    1998-01-01

    - Product Data Representation and Exchange", featuring at present some 30 released parts, and growing continuously. Many of the parts are Application Protocols (AP). This article presents an overview of STEP, based upon years of involvement in three ESPRIT projects, which contributed to the development...

  3. Conceptual Development af a 3D Product Configuration Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skauge, Jørn

    2006-01-01

    Paper. This project deals with 3D product configuration of a digital building element which has been developed as a prototype in cooperation between a product manufacturer and a research institution in Denmark. The project falls within the concept of product modelling which is more and more used ......’s production of steel fire sliding doors. The development of the 3D digital model is based on practical rather than theoretical research. The result of the research is a prototype digital 3D model to be presented live....

  4. Model based process-product design and analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    This paper gives a perspective on modelling and the important role it has within product-process design and analysis. Different modelling issues related to development and application of systematic model-based solution approaches for product-process design is discussed and the need for a hybrid......, forms and complexity, together with their associated parameters. An example of a model-based system for design of chemicals based formulated products is also given....... model-based framework is highlighted. This framework should be able to manage knowledge-data, models, and associated methods and tools integrated with design work-flows and data-flows for specific product-process design problems. In particular, the framework needs to manage models of different types...

  5. A model for marketing planning of new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1994-01-01

    incorporates a special model to explain consumer awareness of the new product. 3. Consumer awareness is explained by distribution (shelf facings and in-store promotion), advertising and giving away free samples. 4. The trial model incorporates the total market potential, the probability of being in a buying......Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

  6. A combined model of sediment production, supply and transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujita

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In previous sediment-runoff models, the sediment production rates of mountain slopes, and the sediment supply rates to streams typically have been developed using empirical methods. A process-based model for sediment production and supply is, however, required for more exact simulations of sediment runoff. In this study, we develop a method to calculate the sediment production rate due to both freeze-thaw action and the sediment supply rate (i.e. erosion rate of talus. These numerical models were then connected to an existing sediment transport model. The integrated model presented here was applied to a small mountainous watershed. We found that the calculated sediment production rate was within the range of values typically observed for this region. Additionally, the estimated annual sediment discharge using the model agreed with observational results. Lastly, we found that the model can be used to qualitatively characterize typical features of the actual sediment routine in mountainous watersheds.

  7. Modelling heat processing of dairy products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hotrum, N.; Fox, M.B.; Lieverloo, H.; Smit, E.; Jong, de P.; Schutyser, M.A.I.

    2010-01-01

    This chapter discusses the application of computer modelling to optimise the heat processing of milk. The chapter first reviews types of heat processing equipment used in the dairy industry. Then, the types of objectives that can be achieved using model-based process optimisation are discussed.

  8. A proposed computer system on Kano model for new product ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A case study is conducted for system verification by an attractive attribute regarding Kano model about an automobile. Keywords: Kano Model, Attributes of Product, New Product Development and Innovation, Monte-Carlo Simulation International Journal of Engineering, Science and Technology, Vol. 2, No. 9, 2010, pp. 1-12 ...

  9. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  10. A continuous-time control model on production planning network ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A continuous-time control model on production planning network. DEA Omorogbe, MIU Okunsebor. Abstract. In this paper, we give a slightly detailed review of Graves and Hollywood model on constant inventory tactical planning model for a job shop. The limitations of this model are pointed out and a continuous time ...

  11. Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this manual is to enable users of the Global Forest Products Model to: • Install and run the GFPM software • Understand the input data • Change the input data to explore different scenarios • Interpret the output The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products (Buongiorno et al. 2003). The GFPM2012 has data...

  12. Developing a Decision Model of Sustainable Product Design and Development from Product Servicizing in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Chen; Tu, Jui-Che; Hung, So-Jeng

    2016-01-01

    In response to the global trend of low carbon and the concept of sustainable development, enterprises need to develop R&D for the manufacturing of energy-saving and sustainable products and low carbon products. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct a decision model for sustainable product design and development from product…

  13. The economic production lot size model extended to include more than one production rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2005-01-01

    We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. Moreover, the production rates, as well as their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all...

  14. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miomir JOVANOVIC

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The northern region of Montenegro represents a very important resource for agricultural production. However, the depopulation of the analysed area, pronounced in-kind character of production without significant participation of market producers, lack of market research, stronger vertical and horizontal connection between primary production and processing sectors have significant impacts causing the low level of competitiveness of agricultural production. Potato production in the analysed area has recorded positive trends in last ten years. This paper presents economic models of agriculture households on the analysed area from the potatoes production point of view.

  15. Conceptual Modelling for Product Configuration Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shafiee, Sara

    Product Configuration Systems (PCS), have been proposed as the solution both by researchers and practitioners and various benefits are mentioned from utilizing PCSs. Based on the latest literature, there are challenges reported in all phases of PCS projects including planning, development......, and documentation. Moreover, the challenges become more serious when it involves complicated products/processes in engineer-to-order (ETO) companies. The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to the existing knowledge of managing PCS projects by proposing frameworks and tools to address some of the main...... challenges. First, this research focuses on the reported benefits and challenges in different phases of PCS projects aligned with the gaps in the current literature. Second, the study presents a survey in order to have a comprehensive overview to assess the most important challenges in the area. Third...

  16. A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    production, over half the work force at the 95 percent level. There would obviously be social issues associated with such kinds of changes, and the...William Walker, Drug Control in the Americas, University of New Mexico Press: Albuquerque [revised edition], 1988. 11. "Plan de Ejecucion del Proyecto ...de Desarrollo Rural Integral del Alto Huallaga," USAID. Washington, D.C., 1981. 12. "Huallaga Valley Agribusiness and Marketing Study," IRI Research

  17. Lattice Model for Production of Gas

    KAUST Repository

    Marder, M.

    2017-12-01

    We define a lattice model for rock, absorbers, and gas that makes it possible to examine the flow of gas to a complicated absorbing boundary over long periods of time. The motivation is to deduce the geometry of the boundary from the time history of gas absorption. We find a solution to this model using Green\\'s function techniques, and apply the solution to three absorbing networks of increasing complexity.

  18. Sustainability Assessment Model in Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd; Omar, Badrul

    2017-08-01

    Faster and more efficient development of innovative and sustainable products has become the focus for manufacturing companies in order to remain competitive in today’s technologically driven world. Design concept evaluation which is the end of conceptual design is one of the most critical decision points. It relates to the final success of product development, because poor criteria assessment in design concept evaluation can rarely compensated at the later stages. Furthermore, consumers, investors, shareholders and even competitors are basing their decisions on what to buy or invest in, from whom, and also on what company report, and sustainability is one of a critical component. In this research, a new methodology of sustainability assessment in product development for Malaysian industry has been developed using integration of green project management, new scale of “Weighting criteria” and Rough-Grey Analysis. This method will help design engineers to improve the effectiveness and objectivity of the sustainable design concept evaluation, enable them to make better-informed decisions before finalising their choice and consequently create value to the company or industry. The new framework is expected to provide an alternative to existing methods.

  19. Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Rizk

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

  20. Enriching step-based product information models to support product life-cycle activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigecili, Mehmet Ilteris

    The representation and management of product information in its life-cycle requires standardized data exchange protocols. Standard for Exchange of Product Model Data (STEP) is such a standard that has been used widely by the industries. Even though STEP-based product models are well defined and syntactically correct, populating product data according to these models is not easy because they are too big and disorganized. Data exchange specifications (DEXs) and templates provide re-organized information models required in data exchange of specific activities for various businesses. DEXs show us it would be possible to organize STEP-based product models in order to support different engineering activities at various stages of product life-cycle. In this study, STEP-based models are enriched and organized to support two engineering activities: materials information declaration and tolerance analysis. Due to new environmental regulations, the substance and materials information in products have to be screened closely by manufacturing industries. This requires a fast, unambiguous and complete product information exchange between the members of a supply chain. Tolerance analysis activity, on the other hand, is used to verify the functional requirements of an assembly considering the worst case (i.e., maximum and minimum) conditions for the part/assembly dimensions. Another issue with STEP-based product models is that the semantics of product data are represented implicitly. Hence, it is difficult to interpret the semantics of data for different product life-cycle phases for various application domains. OntoSTEP, developed at NIST, provides semantically enriched product models in OWL. In this thesis, we would like to present how to interpret the GD & T specifications in STEP for tolerance analysis by utilizing OntoSTEP.

  1. A model for estimating carbon accumulation in cork products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana C. Dias

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: This study aims to develop a calculation model for estimating carbon accumulation in cork products, both whilst in use and when in landfills, and to apply the model to Portugal as an example.Area of study: The model is applicable worldwide and the case-study is Portugal.Material and methods: The model adopts a flux-data method based on a lifetime analysis and quantifies carbon accumulation in cork products according to three approaches that differ on how carbon stocks (or emissions are allocated to cork product consuming and producing countries. These approaches are: stock-change, production and atmospheric-flow. The effect on carbon balance of methane emissions from the decay of cork products in landfills is also evaluated.Main results: The model was applied to Portugal and the results show that carbon accumulation in cork products in the period between 1990 and 2010 varied between 24 and 92 Gg C year-1. The atmospheric-flow approach provided the highest carbon accumulation over the whole period due to the net export of carbon in cork products. The production approach ranked second because exported cork products were mainly manufactured from domestically produced cork. The net carbon balance in cork products was also a net carbon accumulation with all the approaches, ranging from 5 to 81 Gg C eq year-1.Research highlights: The developed model can be applied to other countries and may be a step forward to consider carbon accumulation in cork products in national greenhouse gas inventories, as well as in future climate agreements.Keywords: Atmospheric-flow approach; Greenhouse gas balance; Modelling; Production approach; Stock-change approach.

  2. A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous-time state......Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic...... and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete-time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust...

  3. Assembling Typical Meteorological Year Data Sets for Building Energy Performance Using Reanalysis and Satellite-Based Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Huld

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We present a method to generate Typical Meteorological Year (TMY data sets for use in calculations of the energy performance of buildings, based on satellite derived solar radiation data and other meteorological parameters obtained from reanalysis products. The great advantage of this method is the availability of data over large geographical regions, giving global coverage for the reanalysis and continental-scale coverage for the solar radiation data, making it possible to generate TMY data for nearly any location, independent of the availability of meteorological measurement stations in the area. The TMY data generated with this method have been validated against 487 meteorological stations in Europe, by calculating heating and cooling degree days, and by running building energy performance simulations using EnergyPlus. Results show that the generated data sets using a long time series perform better than the TMY data generated from station measurements for building heating calculations and nearly as well for cooling calculations, with relative standard deviations remaining below 6% for heating calculations. TMY data constructed using the proposed method yield somewhat larger deviations compared to TMY data constructed from station data. We outline a number of possibilities for further improvement using data sets that will become available in the near future.

  4. Fuzzy production planning models for an unreliable production system with fuzzy production rate and stochastic/fuzzy demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Halim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we consider a single-unit unreliable production system which produces a single item. During a production run, the production process may shift from the in-control state to the out-of-control state at any random time when it produces some defective items. The defective item production rate is assumed to be imprecise and is characterized by a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The production rate is proportional to the demand rate where the proportionality constant is taken to be a fuzzy number. Two production planning models are developed on the basis of fuzzy and stochastic demand patterns. The expected cost per unit time in the fuzzy sense is derived in each model and defuzzified by using the graded mean integration representation method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal results of the proposed fuzzy models.

  5. Marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico - II. Model results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke

    2010-01-01

    In the second part of this two-part article on marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico, we estimate the number of committed assets in water depth less than 1000 ft that are expected to be marginal over a 60-year time horizon. We compute the expected quantity and value of the production and gross revenue streams of the gulf's committed asset inventory circa. January 2007 using a probabilistic model framework. Cumulative hydrocarbon production from the producing inventory is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas. Marginal production from the committed asset inventory is expected to contribute 4.1% of total oil production and 5.4% of gas production. A meta-evaluation procedure is adapted to present the results of sensitivity analysis. Model results are discussed along with a description of the model framework and limitations of the analysis. (author)

  6. Marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico - II. Model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)

    2010-08-15

    In the second part of this two-part article on marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico, we estimate the number of committed assets in water depth less than 1000 ft that are expected to be marginal over a 60-year time horizon. We compute the expected quantity and value of the production and gross revenue streams of the gulf's committed asset inventory circa. January 2007 using a probabilistic model framework. Cumulative hydrocarbon production from the producing inventory is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas. Marginal production from the committed asset inventory is expected to contribute 4.1% of total oil production and 5.4% of gas production. A meta-evaluation procedure is adapted to present the results of sensitivity analysis. Model results are discussed along with a description of the model framework and limitations of the analysis. (author)

  7. Particle production in string cosmology models

    CERN Document Server

    Brustein, Ram; Brustein, Ram; Hadad, Merav

    1998-01-01

    We compute spectra of particles produced during a dilaton-driven kinetic inflation phase within string cosmology models. The resulting spectra depend on the parameters of the model and on the type of particle and are quite varied, some increasing and some decreasing with frequency. We use an approximation scheme in which all spectra can be expressed in a nice symmetric form, perhaps hinting at a deeper symmetry of the underlying physics. Our results may serve as a starting point for detailed studies of relic abundances, dark matter candidates, and possible sources of large scale anisotropy.

  8. Climatology and Structures of Southwest Vortices in NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xinyuan; Liu, Changhai; Fan, Guangzhou; Liu, Xiaodong; Feng, Caiyun

    2017-04-01

    A southwest vortex (SWV) refers to the meso-α-scale cyclonic low-pressure system originating in southwest China, as a result of interactions of large-scale circulations and the specific multi-scale topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, Hengduan Mountain and Sichuan Basin. It is a high-impact precipitation-generating weather system in southwestern China, in the Yangtze River valley and even in north China. This paper reports on a systematic investigation of its climatological and structural characteristics over the 32-yr period of 1979-2010 using the high-resolution NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The present study has the several unique features. First, the new generation reanalysis product possesses high spatial and temporal resolution, arguably being more suitable for mesoscale vortex studies as compared to the preceding reanalysis datasets and moreover enabling an examination of the diurnal behavior. Second, our 32-yr statistics are capable of producing a robust representation of the SWV climatology. Third, the application of an objective identification methodology avoids some subjective ambiguities in the manual approach that has exclusively been adopted before. Lastly, a systematic exploration of thermodynamic and kinematic structures is conducted, unlike the previous exclusive heavy-rain-generating case studies. Our major findings are summarized as follows. The SWV is a common regional weather system with an annual count of 73. Two primary source regions are identified, located in the Sichuan Basin and southeast flank of the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The genesis displays striking seasonality, characteristic of a spring-summer (March-August) preference with a peak in May. Remarkable diurnal variations are present, with two active periods around 07 and 19 Local Time. There exist prominent regional disparities in both the seasonal and diurnal variability though. A large portion of the vortices travel a rather limited distance due partially

  9. Three-dimensional decomposition models for carbon productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng, Ming; Niu, Dongxiao

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents decomposition models for the change in carbon productivity, which is considered a key indicator that reflects the contributions to the control of greenhouse gases. Carbon productivity differential was used to indicate the beginning of decomposition. After integrating the differential equation and designing the Log Mean Divisia Index equations, a three-dimensional absolute decomposition model for carbon productivity was derived. Using this model, the absolute change of carbon productivity was decomposed into a summation of the absolute quantitative influences of each industrial sector, for each influence factor (technological innovation and industrial structure adjustment) in each year. Furthermore, the relative decomposition model was built using a similar process. Finally, these models were applied to demonstrate the decomposition process in China. The decomposition results reveal several important conclusions: (a) technological innovation plays a far more important role than industrial structure adjustment; (b) industry and export trade exhibit great influence; (c) assigning the responsibility for CO 2 emission control to local governments, optimizing the structure of exports, and eliminating backward industrial capacity are highly essential to further increase China's carbon productivity. -- Highlights: ► Using the change of carbon productivity to measure a country's contribution. ► Absolute and relative decomposition models for carbon productivity are built. ► The change is decomposed to the quantitative influence of three-dimension. ► Decomposition results can be used for improving a country's carbon productivity.

  10. Parameterization and prediction of nanoparticle transport in porous media: A reanalysis using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babakhani, Peyman; Bridge, Jonathan; Doong, Ruey-an; Phenrat, Tanapon

    2017-06-01

    The continuing rapid expansion of industrial and consumer processes based on nanoparticles (NP) necessitates a robust model for delineating their fate and transport in groundwater. An ability to reliably specify the full parameter set for prediction of NP transport using continuum models is crucial. In this paper we report the reanalysis of a data set of 493 published column experiment outcomes together with their continuum modeling results. Experimental properties were parameterized into 20 factors which are commonly available. They were then used to predict five key continuum model parameters as well as the effluent concentration via artificial neural network (ANN)-based correlations. The Partial Derivatives (PaD) technique and Monte Carlo method were used for the analysis of sensitivities and model-produced uncertainties, respectively. The outcomes shed light on several controversial relationships between the parameters, e.g., it was revealed that the trend of Katt with average pore water velocity was positive. The resulting correlations, despite being developed based on a "black-box" technique (ANN), were able to explain the effects of theoretical parameters such as critical deposition concentration (CDC), even though these parameters were not explicitly considered in the model. Porous media heterogeneity was considered as a parameter for the first time and showed sensitivities higher than those of dispersivity. The model performance was validated well against subsets of the experimental data and was compared with current models. The robustness of the correlation matrices was not completely satisfactory, since they failed to predict the experimental breakthrough curves (BTCs) at extreme values of ionic strengths.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Rotary Kiln Productivity Increase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romero-Valle, M.A.; Pisaroni, M.; Van Puyvelde, D.; Lahaye, D.J.P.; Sadi, R.

    2013-01-01

    Rotary kilns are used in many industrial processes ranging from cement manufacturing to waste incineration. The operating conditions vary widely depending on the process. While there are many models available within the literature and industry, the wide range of operating conditions justifies

  12. Modelling spray drying processes for dairy products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdurmen, Ruud E.M.; Straatsma, Han; Verschueren, Maykel; van Haren, Jan; Smit, Erik; Bargeman, Gerrald; de Jong, Peter

    2002-01-01

    NIZO food research (The Netherlands) has been working for the food industry, the dairy industry in particular, for over 50 years. During the past 15 years NIZO food research has put a lot of effort into developing predictive computer models for the food industry. Nowadays the main challenges in the

  13. Equations of state for explosive detonation products: The PANDA model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerley, G.I.

    1994-05-01

    This paper discusses a thermochemical model for calculating equations of state (EOS) for the detonation products of explosives. This model, which was first presented at the Eighth Detonation Symposium, is available in the PANDA code and is referred to here as ``the Panda model``. The basic features of the PANDA model are as follows. (1) Statistical-mechanical theories are used to construct EOS tables for each of the chemical species that are to be allowed in the detonation products. (2) The ideal mixing model is used to compute the thermodynamic functions for a mixture of these species, and the composition of the system is determined from assumption of chemical equilibrium. (3) For hydrocode calculations, the detonation product EOS are used in tabular form, together with a reactive burn model that allows description of shock-induced initiation and growth or failure as well as ideal detonation wave propagation. This model has been implemented in the three-dimensional Eulerian code, CTH.

  14. Model-driven and software product line engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Royer, Jean-Claude

    2013-01-01

    Many approaches to creating Software Product Lines have emerged that are based on Model-Driven Engineering. This book introduces both Software Product Lines and Model-Driven Engineering, which have separate success stories in industry, and focuses on the practical combination of them. It describes the challenges and benefits of merging these two software development trends and provides the reader with a novel approach and practical mechanisms to improve software development productivity.The book is aimed at engineers and students who wish to understand and apply software product lines

  15. A model for marketing planning for new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1993-01-01

    awareness model. The model can be used to generate improved marketing plans. In this connection, it is important that the model includes the marketing variables, for it is only in this way that the model can be used for marketing plan optimization. It is predicted that a future direction of development...... and use of sales forecasting models for new products will be within optimization of the marketing plan for launching a new product, and not only as a tool for forecasting sales for just one marketing plan....

  16. Technology Model of Aquaculture Production System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hor, K. W.; Salleh, S. M.; Abdullah; Ezree, Mohd; Zaman, I.; Hatta, M. H.; Ahmad, S.; Ismail, A. E.; Mahmud, W. A. W.

    2017-10-01

    The high market demand has led to the rapid growth in fish farming. The young generation are inexperienced in determining the estimated results of fish farming and the preparation of fish pond during the period of fish farming. These need a complete guide as their reference which includes the knowledge of fish farming. The main objective of this project is to develop a practical design of real pond appropriate with aquaculture technology and fish farming production. There are three parts of study in this project which include fish farming cage, growth of fish and water quality of fish farming pond. Few of experiments were carried out involved the collection data in terms of growth of fish and parameters of water quality.

  17. Pion production models and neutrino factories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collot, Johann; Kirk, Harold G.; Mokhov, Nikolai V.

    2000-01-01

    Scenarios for the building of muon colliders or storage rings suitable for the generation of robust neutrino beams call for the generation of a prodigious quantity of pions. These pions are then conducted into a decay channel where the resulting muon decay products can be collected for cooling and subsequent acceleration. Central to this concept is the design and construction of a target which will be highly efficient in producing pions of both signs while mitigating the absorption of these pions before they decay. This design effort is being facilitated by using two computer codes FLUKA and MARS. We present comparisons of the two computer codes and also present a comparison of these codes with available data

  18. PION PRODUCTION MODELS AND NEUTRINO FACTORIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    COLLOT, J.; KIRK, H.G.; MOKHOV, N.V.

    2000-01-01

    Scenarios for the building of muon colliders or storage rings suitable for the generation of robust neutrino beams call for the generation of a prodigious quantity of pions. These pions are then conducted into a decay channel where the resulting muon decay products can be collected for cooling and subsequent acceleration. Central to this concept is the design and construction of a target which will be highly efficient in producing pions of both signs while mitigating the absorption of these pions before they decay. This design effort is being facilitated by using two computer codes FLUKA and MARS. The authors present comparisons of the two computer codes and also present a comparison of these codes with available data

  19. A kinetic model for flavonoid production in tea cell culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibasaki-Kitakawa, Naomi; Iizuka, Yasuhiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Yonemoto, Toshikuni

    2017-02-01

    As one of the strategies for efficient production of a metabolite from cell cultures, a kinetic model is very useful tool to predict productivity under various culture conditions. In this study, we propose a kinetic model for flavonoid production in tea cell culture based on the cell life cycle and expression of PAL, the gene encoding phenylalanine ammonia-lyase (PAL)-the key enzyme in flavonoid biosynthesis. The flavonoid production rate was considered to be related to the amount of active PAL. Synthesis of PAL was modelled based on a general gene expression/translation mechanism, including the transcription of DNA encoding PAL into mRNA and the translation of PAL mRNA into the PAL protein. The transcription of DNA was assumed to be promoted at high light intensity and suppressed by a feedback regulatory mechanism at high flavonoid concentrations. In the model, mRNA and PAL were considered to self-decompose and to be lost by cell rupture. The model constants were estimated by fitting the experimental results obtained from tea cell cultures under various light intensities. The model accurately described the kinetic behaviors of dry and fresh cell concentrations, glucose concentration, cell viability, PAL specific activity, and flavonoid content under a wide range of light intensities. The model simulated flavonoid productivity per medium under various culture conditions. Therefore, this model will be useful to predict optimum culture conditions for maximum flavonoid productivity in cultured tea cells.

  20. Dynamic Modelling and Simulation of Citric Acid Production from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The modelling of batch production of citric acid from corn starch hydrolysate using Aspergillus niger ATCC 9142 was carried out in this work. A validated mathematical model was developed to describe the process. Four kinetic models, Monod, Haldane, logistic and hyperbolic for simulating the growth of the Aspergillus ...

  1. Evaluation of ERA-Interim, MERRA, NCEP-DOE R2 and CFSR Reanalysis precipitation Data using Gauge Observation over Ethiopia for a period of 33 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tewodros Woldemariam Tesfaye

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The vital demand of reliable climatic and hydrologic data of fine spatial and temporal resolution triggered the employment of reanalysis datasets as a surrogate in most of the hydrological modelling exercises. This study examines the performance of four widely used reanalysis datasets: ERA-Interim, NCEP-DOE R2, MERRA and CFSR, in reproducing the spatio-temporal characteristics of observed daily precipitation of different stations spread across Ethiopia, East Africa. The appropriateness of relying on reanalysis datasets for hydrologic modelling, climate change impact assessment and regional modelling studies is assessed using various statistical and non-parametric techniques. ERA-Interim is found to exhibit higher correlation and least root mean square error values with observed daily rainfall, which is followed by CFSR and MERRA in most of the stations. The variability of daily precipitation is better captured by ERA, CFSR and MERRA, while NCEP-DOE R2 overestimated the spread of the precipitation data. While ERA overestimates the probability of moderate rainfall, it is seemingly better in capturing the probability of low rainfall. CFSR captures the overall distribution reasonable well. NCEP-DOE R2 appears to be outperforming others in capturing the probabilities of higher magnitude rainfall. Climatological seasonal cycle and the characteristics of wet and dry spells are compared further, where ERA seemingly replicates the pattern more effectively. However, observed rainfall exhibits higher frequency of short wet spells when compared to that of any reanalysis datasets. MERRA relatively underperforms in simulating the wet spell characteristics of observed daily rainfall. CFSR overestimates the mean wet spell length and mean dry spell length. Spatial trend analysis indicates that the northern and central western Ethiopia show increasing trends, whereas the Central and Eastern Ethiopia as well as the Southern Ethiopia stations show either no trend

  2. Diboson resonant production in non-custodial composite Higgs models

    CERN Document Server

    Carmona, Adrian; Quirós, Mariano; Santiago, Jose

    2015-01-01

    We show that the recently reported excess in resonant diboson production can be explained in the context of non-custodial composite Higgs models. Dibosons are generated via the s-channel exchange of massive vector bosons present in these models. We discuss the compatibility of the signal excess with other diboson experimental searches. We also discuss the tension between diboson production and other experimental tests of the model that include electroweak precision data, dilepton, dijet and top pair production and show that there is a region of parameter space in which they are all compatible with the excess.

  3. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  4. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  5. Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Charlie C L

    2013-01-01

    The recent trend in user-customized product design requires the shape of products to be automatically adjusted according to the human body’s shape, so that people will feel more comfortable when wearing these products.  Geometric approaches can be used to design the freeform shape of products worn by people, which can greatly improve the efficiency of design processes in various industries involving customized products (e.g., garment design, toy design, jewel design, shoe design, and design of medical devices, etc.). These products are usually composed of very complex geometric shapes (represented by free-form surfaces), and are not driven by a parameter table but a digital human model with free-form shapes or part of human bodies (e.g., wrist, foot, and head models).   Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products introduces the algorithms of human body reconstruction, freeform product modeling, constraining and reconstructing freeform products, and shape optimization for improving...

  6. Sustainability Product Properties in Building Information Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Pset_Material_Sustainability_US ThermalResistance Thermal resistance of the element, hr-CuFt-F/Btu (K-Cu m/W) 0 hr-CuFt-F/Btu Pset_Material_Sustainability_US Asphalt ...Model Checker, the sustainable information properties associated with the toilet fixture were visible by selecting the “Private 1.6 LPF” folder in...Performance - Required to be a minimum of 30% better than ASH RAE 90.1-2004 - The key strategies for conserving energy include energy efficiency in

  7. Comparison of surface sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Tibetan Plateau from reanalysis and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jin; Yu, Ye; Li, Jiang-lin; Ge, Jun; Liu, Chuan

    2018-02-01

    Surface sensible and latent heat fluxes (SH and LE) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have been under research since 1950s, especially for recent several years, by mainly using observation, reanalysis, and satellite data. However, the spatiotemporal changes are not consistent among different studies. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variation of SH and LE over the TP from 1981 to 2013 using reanalysis data sets (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, and MERRA) and observations. Results show that the spatiotemporal changes from the three reanalysis data sets are significantly different and the probable causes are discussed. Averaged for the whole TP, both SH and LE from MERRA are obviously higher than the other two reanalysis data sets. ERA-Interim shows a significant downward trend for SH and JRA-55 shows a significant increase of LE during the 33 years with other data sets having no obvious changes. By comparing the heat fluxes and some climate factors from the reanalysis with observations, it is found that the differences of heat fluxes among the three reanalysis data sets are closely related to their differences in meteorological conditions as well as the different parameterizations for surface transfer coefficients. In general, the heat fluxes from the three reanalysis have a better representation in the western TP than that in the eastern TP under inter-annual scale. While in terms of monthly variation, ERA-Interim may have better applicability in the eastern TP with dense vegetation conditions, while SH of JRA-55 and LE of MERRA are probably more representative for the middle and western TP with poor vegetation conditions.

  8. Comparative Evaluation of the Third-Generation Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment of the Southwestern Offshore in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun-Goo Kim

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluated the applicability of long-term datasets among third-generation reanalysis data CFSR, ERA-Interim, MERRA, and MERRA-2 to determine which dataset is more suitable when performing wind resource assessment for the ‘Southwest 2.5 GW Offshore Wind Power Project’, which is currently underway strategically in South Korea. The evaluation was performed by comparing the reanalyses with offshore, onshore, and island meteorological tower measurements obtained in and around the southwest offshore. In the pre-processing of the measurement data, the shading sectors due to a meteorological tower were excluded from all observation data, and the measurement heights at the offshore meteorological towers were corrected considering the sea level change caused by tidal difference. To reflect the orographic forcing by terrain features, the reanalysis data were transformed by using WindSim, a flow model based on computational fluid dynamics and statistical-dynamic downscaling. The comparison of the reanalyses with the measurement data showed the fitness in the following order in terms of coefficient of determination: MERRA-2 > CFSR = MERRA > ERA-Interim. Since the measurement data at the onshore meteorological towers strongly revealed a local wind system such as sea-land breeze, it is judged to be inappropriate for use as supplementary data for offshore wind resource assessment.

  9. An intercomparison of multidecadal observational and reanalysis data sets for global total ozone trends and variability analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Kaixu; Chang, Ni-Bin; Shi, Runhe; Yu, Huijia; Gao, Wei

    2017-07-01

    A four-step adaptive ozone trend estimation scheme is proposed by integrating multivariate linear regression (MLR) and ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) to analyze the long-term variability of total column ozone from a set of four observational and reanalysis total ozone data sets, including the rarely explored ERA-Interim total ozone reanalysis, from 1979 to 2009. Consistency among the four data sets was first assessed, indicating a mean relative difference of 1% and root-mean-square error around 2% on average, with respect to collocated ground-based total ozone observations. Nevertheless, large drifts with significant spatiotemporal inhomogeneity were diagnosed in ERA-Interim after 1995. To emphasize long-term trends, natural ozone variations associated with the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation, volcanic aerosols, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation were modeled with MLR and then removed from each total ozone record, respectively, before performing EEMD analyses. The resulting rates of change estimated from the proposed scheme captured the long-term ozone variability well, with an inflection time of 2000 clearly detected. The positive rates of change after 2000 suggest that the ozone layer seems to be on a healing path, but the results are still inadequate to conclude an actual recovery of the ozone layer, and more observational evidence is needed. Further investigations suggest that biases embedded in total ozone records may significantly impact ozone trend estimations by resulting in large uncertainty or even negative rates of change after 2000.

  10. Bicycle helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing: a re-analysis of Walker, 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake Olivier

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To re-analyse bicycle overtaking data collected by Walker (2007 with a view to assess factors associated with close passing (<1 m, to adjust for other observed factors in a multivariable analysis, and to assess the extent to which the sample size in the original analysis may have contributed to spurious results. METHOD: A re-analysis of 2,355 motor vehicle passing events recorded by Walker that includes information on cyclist's distance to the kerb, vehicle size and colour, city of observation, time of day, whether the event occurred while in a bikelane and helmet wearing. Each variable was considered for a final, multivariable model using purposeful selection of variables. The analysis was repeated using multiple logistic regression with passing distance dichotomised by the one metre rule. Bootstrap p-values were computed using sample sizes computed from conventional values of power and effect size. RESULTS: The previously observed significant association between passing distance and helmet wearing was not found when dichotomised by the one metre rule. Other factors were found to be significantly associated with close passing including cyclists' distance to the kerb, vehicle size and city of observation (Salisbury or Bristol, UK. P-values from bootstrap samples indicate the significance of helmet wearing resulted from an overly large sample size. CONCLUSIONS: After re-analysis of Walker's data, helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing. The results, however, highlight other more important factors that may inform effective bicycle safety strategies.

  11. Aspect-Oriented Model-Driven Software Product Line Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groher, Iris; Voelter, Markus

    Software product line engineering aims to reduce development time, effort, cost, and complexity by taking advantage of the commonality within a portfolio of similar products. The effectiveness of a software product line approach directly depends on how well feature variability within the portfolio is implemented and managed throughout the development lifecycle, from early analysis through maintenance and evolution. This article presents an approach that facilitates variability implementation, management, and tracing by integrating model-driven and aspect-oriented software development. Features are separated in models and composed of aspect-oriented composition techniques on model level. Model transformations support the transition from problem to solution space models. Aspect-oriented techniques enable the explicit expression and modularization of variability on model, template, and code level. The presented concepts are illustrated with a case study of a home automation system.

  12. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  13. Sum rule limitations of kinetic particle-production models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoll, J.; CEA Centre d'Etudes Nucleaires de Grenoble, 38; Guet, C.

    1988-04-01

    Photoproduction and absorption sum rules generalized to systems at finite temperature provide a stringent check on the validity of kinetic models for the production of hard photons in intermediate energy nuclear collisions. We inspect such models for the case of nuclear matter at finite temperature employed in a kinetic regime which copes those encountered in energetic nuclear collisions, and find photon production rates which significantly exceed the limits imposed by the sum rule even under favourable concession. This suggests that coherence effects are quite important and the production of photons cannot be considered as an incoherent addition of individual NNγ production processes. The deficiencies of present kinetic models may also apply for the production of probes such as the pion which do not couple perturbatively to the nuclear currents. (orig.)

  14. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  15. Model of high-productive varieties in forage pea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Kosev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A linear equation of regression was used for establishment of the influence of quantitative characteristics on the grain productivity in forage pea and for development of a model for breeding work. The model for pea plant with high productivity was characterized by average height of 60–70 cm, 8–10 formed pods, 30–40 seeds per plant and 160–260 g in regard to 1000-seed weight. The obtained results showed that the greatest effect on grain productivity had the seed number per plant, first pod height and 1000-seed weight. Kristal variety had high ecological plasticity and could be considered as close to an ideal type, suitable for growing under wide range of environments. Pleven 4 and Rezonator were determined as high-productive varieties and with low stability, Kerpo and Pikardi - as low-productive but stable varieties. Druzba was identified as unstable and low-productive variety.

  16. Satellite-based model detection of recent climate-driven changes in northern high-latitude vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ke; Kimball, John S.; Hogg, E. H.; Zhao, Maosheng; Oechel, Walter C.; Cassano, John J.; Running, Steven W.

    2008-09-01

    We applied a satellite remote sensing based production efficiency model (PEM) using an integrated AVHRR and MODIS FPAR/LAI time series with a regionally corrected NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily surface meteorology and NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget shortwave solar radiation inputs to assess annual terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP) for the pan-Arctic basin and Alaska from 1983 to 2005. Our results show that low temperature constraints on Boreal-Arctic NPP are decreasing by 0.43% per year (P vegetation moisture constraints of 0.49% per year (P = 0.04) are offsetting the potential benefits of longer growing seasons and contributing to recent disturbances in NPP. The PEM simulations of NPP seasonality, annual anomalies and trends are similar to stand inventory network measurements of boreal aspen stem growth (r = 0.56; P = 0.007) and atmospheric CO2 measurement based estimates of the timing of growing season onset (r = 0.78; P forest region after the late-1990s. However, seasonal low temperatures are still a dominant limitation on regional NPP. Despite recent drought events, mean annual NPP for the pan-Arctic region showed a positive growth trend of 0.34% per year (20.27 TgC/a; P = 0.002) from 1983 to 2005. Drought induced NPP decreases may become more frequent and widespread as regional ecosystems adjust to a warmer, drier atmosphere, though the occurrence and severity of drought events will depend on future patterns of plant-available moisture.

  17. Pricing Participating Products under a Generalized Jump-Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tak Kuen Siu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a model for valuing participating life insurance products under a generalized jump-diffusion model with a Markov-switching compensator. It also nests a number of important and popular models in finance, including the classes of jump-diffusion models and Markovian regime-switching models. The Esscher transform is employed to determine an equivalent martingale measure. Simulation experiments are conducted to illustrate the practical implementation of the model and to highlight some features that can be obtained from our model.

  18. Daily temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region derived from the BaltAn65+ reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toll, Velle; Post, Piia

    2018-04-01

    Daily 2-m temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region for the time period of 1965-2005 is studied based on data from the BaltAn65 + high resolution atmospheric reanalysis. Moreover, the ability of regional reanalysis to capture extremes is analysed by comparing the reanalysis data to gridded observations. The shortcomings in the simulation of the minimum temperatures over the northern part of the region and in the simulation of the extreme precipitation over the Scandinavian mountains in the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data are detected and analysed. Temporal trends in the temperature and precipitation extremes in the Baltic Sea region, with the largest increases in temperature and precipitation in winter, are detected based on both gridded observations and the BaltAn65+ reanalysis data. However, the reanalysis is not able to capture all of the regional trends in the extremes in the observations due to the shortcomings in the simulation of the extremes.

  19. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    OpenAIRE

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  20. Selection of productivity improvement techniques via mathematical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahassan M. Khater

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new mathematical model to select an optimal combination of productivity improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper considers four-stage cycle productivity and the productivity is assumed to be a linear function of fifty four improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study of manufacturing plant. The resulted problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming which can be solved for optimality using traditional methods. The preliminary results of the implementation of the proposed model of this paper indicate that the productivity can be improved through a change on equipments and it can be easily applied for both manufacturing and service industries.

  1. Sustainable economic production quantity models for inventory systems with shortage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taleizadeh, Ata Allah; Soleymanfar, Vahid Reza; Govindan, Kannan

    2018-01-01

    (EPQ). The theoretical sustainable EOQ and EPQ models are basic models that ignore many real-life conditions such as the possibility of stock-out in inventory systems. In this paper, we develop four new sustainable economic production quantity models that consider different shortage situations. To find...... optimal values of inventory system variables, we solve four independent profit maximization problems for four different situations. These proposed models include a basic model in which shortages are not allowed, and when shortages are allowed, the lost sale, full backordering and partial backordering...... models can be selected by operations managers depending on the manufacturer's motivation to improve service levels. We have also proposed an algorithm for determining optimum values of the decision variables for these sustainable economic production quantity models. Finally, the formulated models...

  2. Modelling production of field crops and its requirements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wit, de C.T.; Keulen, van H.

    1987-01-01

    Simulation models are being developed that enable quantitative estimates of the growth and production of the main agricultural crops under a wide range of weather and soil conditions. For this purpose, several hierarchically ordered production situations are distinguished in such a way that the

  3. Production compilation : A simple mechanism to model complex skill acquisition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, N.A.; Lee, F.J.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we describe production compilation, a mechanism for modeling skill acquisition. Production compilation has been developed within the ACT-Rational (ACT-R; J. R. Anderson, D. Bothell, M. D. Byrne, & C. Lebiere, 2002) cognitive architecture and consists of combining and specializing

  4. MODEL2TALK : An Intervention to Promote Productive Classroom Talk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Veen, Chiel; van der Wilt, Femke; van Kruistum, Claudia; van Oers, Bert; Michaels, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    This article describes the MODEL2TALK intervention, which aims to promote young children's oral communicative competence through productive classroom talk. Productive classroom talk provides children in early childhood education with many opportunities to talk and think together. Results from a

  5. A Markov decision model for optimising economic production lot size ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. Traditional approaches towards determining the economic production lot (EPL) size in man- ufacturing applications assume deterministic demand, often at a constant rate. In this paper, an optimisation model is developed for determining the EPL size that minimises production and inventory costs of a periodic ...

  6. Product Modelling for Building Design: Annotated Bibliography (2nd Edition)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1999-01-01

    This bibliography concerns research publications from 1976 to 1994-5, on product modelling in computer aided architectural design and computer aided engineering design of buildings and their surroundings. For each item of literature, full bibliographic information is given whenever available...... of literature is offered on machine interpretation of drawings, which may be relevant in the context of information exchange among different product models. Although the bibliography is fairly comprehensive as far as it goes, no completeness of coverage is claimed....

  7. A Comparison of Southern Hemisphere Cyclone Track Climatology and Interannual Variability in Coarse-Gridded Reanalysis Datasets

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Timothy Paul; Gottschalck, Jon

    2013-01-01

    Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical cyclones have received less study than their Northern Hemisphere (NH) counterparts. Generating SH cyclone tracks from global reanalysis datasets is problematic due to data reliability, especially prior to 1979. It is therefore prudent to compare the climatology and variability of SH cyclone tracks from different reanalysis datasets. We generate cyclone track frequency and intensity climatologies from three reanalysis datasets: The National Center for Env...

  8. Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

    2011-01-01

    Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

  9. Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. K. A. Singh

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0–2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

  10. Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hansi K. A.; Hakim, Gregory J.; Tardif, Robert; Emile-Geay, Julien; Noone, David C.

    2018-02-01

    The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a data assimilation approach to reconstruct climate fields from annually resolved proxy data over years 0-2000 CE. We use the LMR to examine Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the last 2 millennia and find several robust thermodynamic features associated with a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index that reveal a dynamically consistent pattern of variability: the Atlantic and most continents warm; sea ice thins over the Arctic and retreats over the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian seas; and equatorial precipitation shifts northward. The latter is consistent with anomalous southward energy transport mediated by the atmosphere. Net downward shortwave radiation increases at both the top of the atmosphere and the surface, indicating a decrease in planetary albedo, likely due to a decrease in low clouds. Heat is absorbed by the climate system and the oceans warm. Wavelet analysis of the AMO time series shows a reddening of the frequency spectrum on the 50- to 100-year timescale, but no evidence of a distinct multidecadal or centennial spectral peak. This latter result is insensitive to both the choice of prior model and the calibration dataset used in the data assimilation algorithm, suggesting that the lack of a distinct multidecadal spectral peak is a robust result.

  11. Mass balance re-analysis of Findelengletscher, Switzerland; benefits of extensive snow accumulation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo eSold

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A re-analysis is presented here of a 10-year mass balance series at Findelengletscher, a temperate mountain glacier in Switzerland. Calculating glacier-wide mass balance from the set of glaciological point balance observations using conventional approaches, such as the profile or contour method, resulted in significant deviations from the reference value given by the geodetic mass change over a five-year period. This is attributed to the sparsity of observations at high elevations and to the inability of the evaluation schemes to adequately estimate accumulation in unmeasured areas. However, measurements of winter mass balance were available for large parts of the study period from snow probings and density pits. Complementary surveys by helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR were conducted in three consecutive years. The complete set of seasonal observations was assimilated using a distributed mass balance model. This model-based extrapolation revealed a substantial mass loss at Findelengletscher of -0.43m w.e. a^-1 between 2004 and 2014, while the loss was less pronounced for its former tributary, Adlergletscher (-0.30m w.e. a^-1. For both glaciers, the resulting time series were within the uncertainty bounds of the geodetic mass change. We show that the model benefited strongly from the ability to integrate seasonal observations. If no winter mass balance measurements were available and snow cover was represented by a linear precipitation gradient, the geodetic mass balance was not matched. If winter balance measurements by snow probings and snow density pits were taken into account, the model performance was substantially improved but still showed a significant bias relative to the geodetic mass change. Thus the excellent agreement of the model-based extrapolation with the geodetic mass change was owed to an adequate representation of winter accumulation distribution by means of extensive GPR measurements.

  12. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  13. Improving Crop Productions Using the Irrigation & Crop Production Model Under Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Y.; Lee, T.; Lee, S. H.; Kim, J.; Jang, W.; Park, S.

    2017-12-01

    We aimed to improve crop productions by providing optimal irrigation water amounts (IWAs) for various soils and crops using the Irrigation & Crop Production (ICP) model under various hydro-climatic regions. We selected the Little Washita (LW 13/21) and Bangdong-ri sites in Oklahoma (United States of America) and Chuncheon (Republic of Korea) for the synthetic studies. Our results showed that the ICP model performed well for improving crop productions by providing optimal IWAs during the study period (2000 to 2016). Crop productions were significantly affected by the solar radiation and precipitation, but the maximum and minimum temperature showed less impact on crop productions. When we considerd that the weather variables cannot be adjusted by artifical activities, irrigation might be the only solution for improving crop productions under drought. Also, the presence of shallow ground water (SGW) table depths higlhy influences on crop production. Although certainties exist in the synthetic studies, our results showed the robustness of the ICP model for improving crop productions under the drought condition. Thus, the ICP model can contribute to efficient water management plans under drought in regions at where water availability is limited.

  14. Modeling of the Gross Regional Product on the Basis of Production Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadovin, Nikolay S.; Kokotkina, Tatiana N.; Barkalova, Tatiana G.; Tsaregorodsev, Evgeny I.

    2016-01-01

    The article is devoted to elaboration and construction of a static model of macroeconomics in which economics is considered as an unstructured holistic unit, the input of which receives the resources, and the output is the result of the functioning of economics in the form of gross domestic product or gross regional product. Resources are…

  15. Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Tripathi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

  16. The twentieth century Africal easterly waves in reanalysis systems and IPCC simulations, from intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruti, Paolo; Dell' Aquila, Alessandro [ENEA, CR Casaccia, UTMEA-CLIM, Rome (Italy)

    2010-11-15

    The nature of intraseasonal and interannual variability of African easterly waves (AEWs) in IPCC-CMIP3 global simulations is investigated in comparison with 40-year NCEP and ERA40 products. AEWs are a major source of atmospheric variability over the Sahel and particularly over West Africa. An accurate representation of AEWs dynamics is therefore an important precondition to skilled climate predictions and seasonal forecasts for this area. We describe the synoptic features of these disturbances and we illustrate a statistical link, at interannual timescale, between Sea Surface Temperature and AEWs activity. At intraseasonal time scale, the models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours in reproducing the synoptic features of the disturbances, namely AEWs amplitude and pattern. It is possible to classify the models into two groups, one localizing intense variability well inside the continental area, and the other exhibiting a weaker variance mostly placed over West Africa. Concerning the inter-annual variability, we point out a statistical link between SST anomalies and AEWs activity that reveals a strong influence of the ENSO events on the variability of the disturbances over the Guinean coasts. Warm/cold ENSO events occur in conjunction with suppressed/enhanced AEWs through upper tropospheric teleconnection bridge. Only two model running at significantly different vertical and horizontal resolution (INM and INGV-SGX) are able to reproduce this mechanism in accordance to what observed in the global reanalysis systems. Our result introduces non-negligible caveats with respect to the ability of most of CMIP3 models in obtaining reliable description of AEWs. (orig.)

  17. Model of high-productive varieties in forage pea

    OpenAIRE

    KOSEV, VALENTIN

    2015-01-01

    A linear equation of regression was used for establishment of the influence of quantitative characteristics on the grain productivity in forage pea and for development of a model for breeding work. The model for pea plant with high productivity was characterized by average height of 60–70 cm, 8–10 formed pods, 30–40 seeds per plant and 160–260 g in regard to 1000-seed weight. The obtained results showed that the greatest effect on grain productivity had the seed number per plant, first pod he...

  18. Boolean models of biosurfactants production in Pseudomonas fluorescens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Richard

    Full Text Available Cyclolipopeptides (CLPs are biosurfactants produced by numerous Pseudomonas fluorescens strains. CLP production is known to be regulated at least by the GacA/GacS two-component pathway, but the full regulatory network is yet largely unknown. In the clinical strain MFN1032, CLP production is abolished by a mutation in the phospholipase C gene (plcC and not restored by plcC complementation. Their production is also subject to phenotypic variation. We used a modelling approach with Boolean networks, which takes into account all these observations concerning CLP production without any assumption on the topology of the considered network. Intensive computation yielded numerous models that satisfy these properties. All models minimizing the number of components point to a bistability in CLP production, which requires the presence of a yet unknown key self-inducible regulator. Furthermore, all suggest that a set of yet unexplained phenotypic variants might also be due to this epigenetic switch. The simplest of these Boolean networks was used to propose a biological regulatory network for CLP production. This modelling approach has allowed a possible regulation to be unravelled and an unusual behaviour of CLP production in P. fluorescens to be explained.

  19. H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

    2008-09-01

    The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

  20. Modelling of wander ratios, travel speeds and productivity of cable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multiple regression was also used to develop prediction models for travel speeds loaded and unloaded. The study met its objectives for driving speeds and productivity, and the developed models will be used in a subsequent network analysis to provide solutions to optimise the softwood sawtimber supply chain. The study ...

  1. Product design and business model strategies for a circular economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bocken, N.M.P.; de Pauw, I.C.; Bakker, C.A.; van der Grinten, B.

    The transition within business from a linear to a circular economy brings with it a range of practical challenges for companies. The following question is addressed: What are the product design and business model strategies for
    companies that want to move to a circular economy model? This paper

  2. Testday models for production traits in dairy cattle | Mostert | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Methodology has been developed to implement testday models in the national genetic evaluation of dairy breeds for production traits in South Africa. Positive definite covariance matrices have been estimated, using multitrait, multi-lactation, fixed regression testday BLUP animal models, including testday records of the first ...

  3. Meat consumption, production and land use : model implementation and scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woltjer, G.B.

    2011-01-01

    This report discusses simulations with the LEITAP model about opportunities to reduce land use as a consequence of changing meat consumption and production. In order to be able to generate plausible simulation results, the LEITAP model had to be adjusted. These changes are discussed in the first

  4. Modeling new product sales; an application of cointegration analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1994-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers an econometric model for new product sales, which extends the deterministic Gompertz process by allowing the saturation level to depend on forcing variables. It turns out that this model can be written in error correction form. Given that many marketing variables

  5. Some Problems in Using Diffusion Models for New Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Irwin; Mackenzie, Kenneth D.

    This paper analyzes some of the problems of using diffusion models to formulate marketing strategies for new products. Though future work in this area appears justified, many unresolved problems limit its application. There is no theory for adoption and diffusion processes; such a theory is outlined in this paper. The present models are too…

  6. A comparative analysis of the temperature behavior and multiple tropopause events derived from GPS, radiosonde and reanalysis datasets over Argentina, as an example of Southern mid latitudes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.G. Lakkis

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent research on climatologies for temperature structure and tropopause parameters in the tropics, based on radiosonde, satellites data and model reanalysis show good agreement between radiosonde (RS and data derived from remote sounding, such as GPS Radio Occultation (GPS RO, and reanalysis. The agreement is remarkably good over and immediately near the tropics. However, in the southern extra tropical region, especially at medium and high latitudes, there are often considerable differences in the temperature profiles as latitudes increases, which depends on the variability of location and evolution of the tropopause. The purpose of this work is to compare the behaviour of temperature profiles derived from GPS RO, daily and monthly ERA 40 reanalysis means and nearby radiosonde measurements in the southern extra tropical region. Argentina serves as an example of latitudes between 30°- 60°S. The data covers 2001-2002 and analyses parameters such as temperature, pressure, and height derived rom radiosonde and satellite data in order to detect single and multiple tropopause events. The results show that in most cases are GPS RO more closely related to RS measurements than to reanalysis profiles, both for daily values, monthly means and their standard deviations. However, GPS RO deviations increase with respect to RS for heights above the tropopause, i.e., in the stratosphere, and decrease into the troposphere. Radiosonde and GPS appear to be in good agreement for tropopause temperatures and heights estimates when a single tropopause (LRT1 is considered, but with decreasing agreement as latitudes increase. Furthermore, while single and double tropopause events can be detected in RS observations this is less common for the GPS RO retrievals.

  7. A simple climatology of westerly jet streams in global reanalysis datasets part 1: mid-latitude upper tropospheric jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rikus, Lawrie

    2018-04-01

    A simple closed contour object identification scheme has been applied to the zonal mean monthly mean zonal wind fields from nine global reanalysis data sets for 31 years of the satellite era (1979-2009) to identify objects corresponding to westerly jet streams. The results cluster naturally into six individual jet streams but only the mid-latitude upper-tropospheric jets are considered here. The time series of the jet properties from all reanalyses are decomposed into seasonal means and anomalies, and correlations between variables are evaluated, with the aim of identifying robust features which can form the basis of evaluation metrics for climate model simulations of the twentieth century. There is substantial agreement between all the reanalyses for all jet properties although there are some systematic differences with particular data sets. Some of the results from the object identification applied to the reanalyses are used in a simple example of a model evaluation score for the zonal mean jet seasonal cycle.

  8. Alternative wind power modeling methods using chronological and load duration curve production cost models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M R

    1996-04-01

    As an intermittent resource, capturing the temporal variation in windpower is an important issue in the context of utility production cost modeling. Many of the production cost models use a method that creates a cumulative probability distribution that is outside the time domain. The purpose of this report is to examine two production cost models that represent the two major model types: chronological and load duration cure models. This report is part of the ongoing research undertaken by the Wind Technology Division of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in utility modeling and wind system integration.

  9. The history and transitent nature of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea from advanced reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinardi, Nadia; Fratianni, Claudia; Lyubartsev, Vladyslav

    2015-04-01

    Long term, high resolution re-analyses of the Mediterranean Sea circulation and thermohaline structure are now available from the NextData and MyOcean projects. The first is a 60 years re-analysis (1953-2012) done with atmospheric AMIP forcing and the second is 25 years re-analysis (1987-2012) done with ECMWF atmospheric forcing re-analysis. Both concur to have a representation of the longest time series of salinity anomalies in the Mediterranean Sea, the highest space-time reconstruction ever done for the whole basin. The salinity anomalies of the Mediterranean Sea below seven hundred meters of the past 60 years are examined in comparison with the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, a phenomenon Dr. A.Hecht contributed to discover during POEM. Deep water salinity changes and Gibraltar Strait anomalies are also examined in the light of possible feedback mechanisms, as well as the structure and correlation of such salinity anomalies with atmospheric forcing.

  10. Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R.; Herrgard, Markus

    2013-01-01

    associated with the development and implementation of a su stainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow...... and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production.......With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes...

  11. Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Miyazaki

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25. The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC. The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

  12. A Deterministic Inventory/Production Model with General Inventory Cost Rate Function and Concave Production Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); Z.P. Bayindir (Pelin)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe present a thorough analysis of the economic order quantity model with shortages under a general inventory cost rate function and concave production costs. By using some standard results from convex analysis, we show that the model exhibits a composite concave-convex structure.

  13. A model of the supplier involvement in the product innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Manoj

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine the product innovation in a supply chain by a supplier and derive a model for a supplier’s product innovation policy. The product innovation of a supplier can contribute to the long-term competitiveness for the supply chain, and as it is for many supply chains a major factor, it should be considered in the development of strategies for a supplier. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of supplier product innovation as a strategic tool to enhance the competitiveness and viability of supply chain. This paper explores the dynamic research performance of a supplier with endogenous time preference under a given arrangement of product innovation. We find that the optimal effort level and the achieved product innovation obey a saddle point path, or show tremendous fluctuations even without introducing the stochastic nature of product innovative activity. We also find that the fluctuation frequency is largely dependent both on the supplier’s characteristics such as supplier’s product innovative ability and on the nature of product innovation process per se. Short-run analyses are also made on the effect of supply chain cooperation in the product innovation process.

  14. The model for estimation production cost of embroidery handicraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nofierni; Sriwana, IK; Septriani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Embroidery industry is one of type of micro industry that produce embroidery handicraft. These industries are emerging in some rural areas of Indonesia. Embroidery clothing are produce such as scarves and clothes that show cultural value of certain region. The owner of an enterprise must calculate the cost of production before making a decision on how many products are received from the customer. A calculation approach to production cost analysis is needed to consider the feasibility of each order coming. This study is proposed to design the expert system (ES) in order to improve production management in the embroidery industry. The model will design used Fuzzy inference system as a model to estimate production cost. Research conducted based on survey and knowledge acquisitions from stakeholder of supply chain embroidery handicraft industry at Bukittinggi, West Sumatera, Indonesia. This paper will use fuzzy input where the quality, the complexity of the design and the working hours required and the result of the model are useful to manage production cost on embroidery production.

  15. Rice production model based on the concept of ecological footprint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faiz, S. A.; Wicaksono, A. D.; Dinanti, D.

    2017-06-01

    Pursuant to what had been stated in Region Spatial Planning (RTRW) of Malang Regency for period 2010-2030, Malang Regency was considered as the center of agricultural development, including districts bordered with Malang City. To protect the region functioning as the provider of rice production, then the policy of sustainable food farming-land (LP2B) was made which its implementation aims to protect rice-land. In the existing condition, LP2B system was not maximally executed, and it caused a limited extend of rice-land to deliver rice production output. One cause related with the development of settlements and industries due to the effect of Malang City that converted land-function. Location of research focused on 30 villages with direct border with Malang City. Review was conducted to develop a model of relation between farming production output and ecological footprint variables. These variables include rice-land area (X1), built land percentage (X2), and number of farmers (X3). Analysis technique was regression. Result of regression indicated that the model of rice production output Y=-207,983 + 10.246X1. Rice-land area (X1) was the most influential independent variable. It was concluded that of villages directly bordered with Malang City, there were 11 villages with higher production potential because their rice production yield was more than 1,000 tons/year, while 12 villages were threatened with low production output because its rice production yield only attained 500 tons/year. Based on the model and the spatial direction of RTRW, it can be said that the direction for the farming development policy must be redesigned to maintain rice-land area on the regions on which agricultural activity was still dominant. Because rice-land area was the most influential factor to farming production. Therefore, the wider the rice-land is, the higher rice production output is on each village.

  16. Fish Processed Production Planning Using Integer Stochastic Programming Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firmansyah, Mawengkang, Herman

    2011-06-01

    Fish and its processed products are the most affordable source of animal protein in the diet of most people in Indonesia. The goal in production planning is to meet customer demand over a fixed time horizon divided into planning periods by optimizing the trade-off between economic objectives such as production cost and customer satisfaction level. The major decisions are production and inventory levels for each product and the number of workforce in each planning period. In this paper we consider the management of small scale traditional business at North Sumatera Province which performs processing fish into several local seafood products. The inherent uncertainty of data (e.g. demand, fish availability), together with the sequential evolution of data over time leads the production planning problem to a nonlinear mixed-integer stochastic programming model. We use scenario generation based approach and feasible neighborhood search for solving the model. The results which show the amount of each fish processed product and the number of workforce needed in each horizon planning are presented.

  17. Kinetic model development for biogas production from cattle dung

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghatak, Manjula Das; Mahanta, P.

    2017-07-01

    Biogas is a mixture of methane, carbon dioxide and traces of numerous trace of elements. It is produced by anaerobic digestion of organic matters including cattle dung which depend upon various factors affecting the population and activity of microorganisms producing biogas. Among the various factors temperature is one of them which play a significant role in biogas production from cattle dung. Biogas production from cattle dung was studied at temperatures 35°C to 55°C at a step of 5°C to study the effect of temperature on biogas production from cattle dung. In this work a mathematical model is developed for evaluating the effect of temperature on the rate of biogas production from cattle dung. The new mathematical model is derived by adding the effect of temperature on the modified Gompertz model. The new model is found to be suitable for predicting the biogas production from cattle dung in the temperature range 35°C to 55°C. The results from the new model are found to be highly correlated to the experimental data of present study.

  18. A study for production simulation model generation system based on data model at a shipyard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myung-Gi Back

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Simulation technology is a type of shipbuilding product lifecycle management solution used to support production planning or decision-making. Normally, most shipbuilding processes are consisted of job shop production, and the modeling and simulation require professional skills and experience on shipbuilding. For these reasons, many shipbuilding companies have difficulties adapting simulation systems, regardless of the necessity for the technology. In this paper, the data model for shipyard production simulation model generation was defined by analyzing the iterative simulation modeling procedure. The shipyard production simulation data model defined in this study contains the information necessary for the conventional simulation modeling procedure and can serve as a basis for simulation model generation. The efficacy of the developed system was validated by applying it to the simulation model generation of the panel block production line. By implementing the initial simulation model generation process, which was performed in the past with a simulation modeler, the proposed system substantially reduced the modeling time. In addition, by reducing the difficulties posed by different modeler-dependent generation methods, the proposed system makes the standardization of the simulation model quality possible.

  19. Surrogate reservoir models for CSI well probabilistic production forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saúl Buitrago

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work is to present the construction and use of Surrogate Reservoir Models capable of accurately predicting cumulative oil production for every well stimulated with cyclic steam injection at any given time in a heavy oil reservoir in Mexico considering uncertain variables. The central composite experimental design technique was selected to capture the maximum amount of information from the model response with a minimum number of reservoir models simulations. Four input uncertain variables (the dead oil viscosity with temperature, the reservoir pressure, the reservoir permeability and oil sand thickness hydraulically connected to the well were selected as the ones with more impact on the initial hot oil production rate according to an analytical production prediction model. Twenty five runs were designed and performed with the STARS simulator for each well type on the reservoir model. The results show that the use of Surrogate Reservoir Models is a fast viable alternative to perform probabilistic production forecasting of the reservoir.

  20. Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Kai; Bakshi, Bhavik R; Herrgård, Markus J

    2013-09-01

    With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes associated with the development and implementation of a sustainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process, chemical industry, economy, and ecosystem. In addition, we propose a multi-scale approach for integrating the existing models into a cohesive framework. The major benefit of this proposed framework is that the design and decision-making at each scale can be informed, guided, and constrained by simulations and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production. Copyright © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production

    OpenAIRE

    Andra Blumberga; Armands Gravelsins; Haralds Vigants; Dagnija Blumberga

    2017-01-01

    The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this resear...

  2. Habitat connectivity and ecosystem productivity: implications from a simple model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloern, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    The import of resources (food, nutrients) sustains biological production and food webs in resource-limited habitats. Resource export from donor habitats subsidizes production in recipient habitats, but the ecosystem-scale consequences of resource translocation are generally unknown. Here, I use a nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton model to show how dispersive connectivity between a shallow autotrophic habitat and a deep heterotrophic pelagic habitat can amplify overall system production in metazoan food webs. This result derives from the finite capacity of suspension feeders to capture and assimilate food particles: excess primary production in closed autotrophic habitats cannot be assimilated by consumers; however, if excess phytoplankton production is exported to food-limited heterotrophic habitats, it can be assimilated by zooplankton to support additional secondary production. Transport of regenerated nutrients from heterotrophic to autotrophic habitats sustains higher system primary production. These simulation results imply that the ecosystem-scale efficiency of nutrient transformation into metazoan biomass can be constrained by the rate of resource exchange across habitats and that it is optimized when the transport rate matches the growth rate of primary producers. Slower transport (i.e., reduced connectivity) leads to nutrient limitation of primary production in autotrophic habitats and food limitation of secondary production in heterotrophic habitats. Habitat fragmentation can therefore impose energetic constraints on the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems. The outcomes of ecosystem restoration through habitat creation will be determined by both functions provided by newly created aquatic habitats and the rates of hydraulic connectivity between them.

  3. Structural model for sustainable consumption and production adoption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luthra, Sunil; Govindan, Kannan; Mangla, Sachin Kumar

    2017-01-01

    Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) patterns are becoming important in the implementation of sustainability in industrial contexts. In this sense, this study uniquely focuses on developing a structural model to evaluate the sustainable consumption and production adoption drivers...... and to improve sustainability aspects in the supply chain scenario under uncertain environments. Initially, fourteen drivers related to sustainable consumption and production adoption were selected from the literature and expert feedback. Then, the grey based Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory....... “Governmental policies and regulations to develop sustainable consumption and production focused system” and “Management support, dedication and involvement in sustainable consumption and production implementation” have been found as the most influencing drivers and “Gaining the market edge and improving...

  4. A Production Model for Construction: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Antunes

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The building construction industry faces challenges, such as increasing project complexity and scope requirements, but shorter deadlines. Additionally, economic uncertainty and rising business competition with a subsequent decrease in profit margins for the industry demands the development of new approaches to construction management. However, the building construction sector relies on practices based on intuition and experience, overlooking the dynamics of its production system. Furthermore, researchers maintain that the construction industry has no history of the application of mathematical approaches to model and manage production. Much work has been carried out on how manufacturing practices apply to construction projects, mostly lean principles. Nevertheless, there has been little research to understand the fundamental mechanisms of production in construction. This study develops an in-depth literature review to examine the existing knowledge about production models and their characteristics in order to establish a foundation for dynamic production systems management in construction. As a result, a theoretical framework is proposed, which will be instrumental in the future development of mathematical production models aimed at predicting the performance and behaviour of dynamic project-based systems in construction.

  5. Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnafous, L.

    2017-12-01

    Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

  6. [Characteristics of Hospitalized Mentally ill Spanish Migrants in Germany - Results of a Statistical Reanalysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdés-Stauber, J; Valdés-Stauber, M A

    2015-10-01

    To draft a clinical profile of mentally ill first-generation Spanish immigrants in Germany treated in a special setting in their native language and to identify possible correlations between time of onset of a mental disorder and migration and also between degree of utilization and clinical as well as care variables. Statistical reanalysis of individual data (n = 100) of a previously published descriptive study with aggregated data corresponding to 15 variables. Correlations are calculated using chi-square as well as Fisher's exact test. Multivariate regression and logistic models were conducted. In addition to the explained variance of the models (R(2)), analyses of residuals as well as post-hoc power analyses (1-β) were performed. A quarter of the sample (26 %) was mentally ill before migration; most of the patients received treatment very late (about 10 years after onset) and became chronically ill. Half of the sample shows a relevant somatic comorbidity and large average lengths of inpatient stays (54 days). In 16 % of treated cases, repatriation had to be organized. The degree of chronicity correlates with mental illness prior to migration. Severe mood disorders and psychoses occur late after having migrated, addictions and neurotic disorders are equally distributed over time. Migration can not be set in a causal relationship with the development of mental disorders, although there is a positive correlation between affective disorders and the duration of the migration status. Chronicity is related to an outbreak of the disease before migration. The sample is relatively homogeneous (one nationality, first generation), but loses epidemiological representativeness (not related to a catchment area). © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  7. A production inventory model with deteriorating items and shortages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samanta G.P.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A continuous production control inventory model for deteriorating items with shortages is developed. A number of structural properties of the inventory system are studied analytically. The formulae for the optimal average system cost, stock level, backlog level and production cycle time are derived when the deterioration rate is very small. Numerical examples are taken to illustrate the procedure of finding the optimal total inventory cost, stock level, backlog level and production cycle time. Sensitivity analysis is carried out to demonstrate the effects of changing parameter values on the optimal solution of the system.

  8. Comparison of kinetic model for biogas production from corn cob

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shitophyta, L. M.; Maryudi

    2018-04-01

    Energy demand increases every day, while the energy source especially fossil energy depletes increasingly. One of the solutions to overcome the energy depletion is to provide renewable energies such as biogas. Biogas can be generated by corn cob and food waste. In this study, biogas production was carried out by solid-state anaerobic digestion. The steps of biogas production were the preparation of feedstock, the solid-state anaerobic digestion, and the measurement of biogas volume. This study was conducted on TS content of 20%, 22%, and 24%. The aim of this research was to compare kinetic models of biogas production from corn cob and food waste as a co-digestion using the linear, exponential equation, and first-kinetic models. The result showed that the exponential equation had a better correlation than the linear equation on the ascending graph of biogas production. On the contrary, the linear equation had a better correlation than the exponential equation on the descending graph of biogas production. The correlation values on the first-kinetic model had the smallest value compared to the linear and exponential models.

  9. An inventory control model for biomass dependent production systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grado, S.C.; Strauss, C.H.

    1993-01-01

    The financial performance of a biomass dependent production system was critiqued based on the development and validation of an inventory control model. Dynamic programming was used to examine the constraints and capabilities of producing ethanol from various biomass crops. In particular, the model evaluated the plantation, harvest, and manufacturing components of a woody biomass supply system. The optimum wood to ethanol production scheme produced 38 million litres of ethanol in the harvest year, at 13.6 million litre increase over the least optimal policy as demonstrated in the dynamic programming results. The system produced ethanol at a delivered cost of $0.38 L -1 which was consistent with the unit costs from other studies. Nearly 60% of the delivered costs were in ethanol production. The remaining costs were attributed to growing biomass (14%), harvest and shipment of the crop (18%), storage of the raw material and finished product (7%) and open-quotes lost salesclose quotes (2%). Inventory control, in all phases of production, proved to be an important cost consideration throughout the model. The model also analyzed the employment of alternative harvesting policies and the use of different or multiple feedstocks. A comparison between the least cost wood system and an even cut wood system further revealed the benefits of using an inventory control system

  10. GASCAP: Wellhead Gas Productive Capacity Model documentation, June 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The Wellhead Gas Productive Capacity Model (GASCAP) has been developed by EIA to provide a historical analysis of the monthly productive capacity of natural gas at the wellhead and a projection of monthly capacity for 2 years into the future. The impact of drilling, oil and gas price assumptions, and demand on gas productive capacity are examined. Both gas-well gas and oil-well gas are included. Oil-well gas productive capacity is estimated separately and then combined with the gas-well gas productive capacity. This documentation report provides a general overview of the GASCAP Model, describes the underlying data base, provides technical descriptions of the component models, diagrams the system and subsystem flow, describes the equations, and provides definitions and sources of all variables used in the system. This documentation report is provided to enable users of EIA projections generated by GASCAP to understand the underlying procedures used and to replicate the models and solutions. This report should be of particular interest to those in the Congress, Federal and State agencies, industry, and the academic community, who are concerned with the future availability of natural gas

  11. Modelling architectures in multi-product oriented technology development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir

    This thesis investigates the use of architecture modelling in a technology development context.This context presents greater uncertainties than more mature new product development. Applications—the use of products based on the technology being developed—are not fully identified and the requiremen...... frameworks in a technology development projectare presented, along with descriptive results on the context of technology development gained through active participation in the case project.......This thesis investigates the use of architecture modelling in a technology development context.This context presents greater uncertainties than more mature new product development. Applications—the use of products based on the technology being developed—are not fully identified and the requirements...... to be fulfilled are not completely defined.The products to be based on the technology are yet to be developed as the foundation for their development will be developed during the technology development. Furthermore, the production of a new technology is not defined as both the technology and derivative products...

  12. Towards a reference model for portfolio management for product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Flemming

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of portfolio management for product development at company level. Departing from a combination of explorative interviews with industry professionals and a literature review a proposal for a reference model for portfolio management is developed....... The model consists of a set of defined and interrelated concepts which forms a coherent and consistent reference model that explicate the totality of the portfolio management concept at company level in terms of structure, processes and elements. The model simultaneously pinpoints, positions and integrates...

  13. Sampling from stochastic reservoir models constrained by production data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hegstad, Bjoern Kaare

    1997-12-31

    When a petroleum reservoir is evaluated, it is important to forecast future production of oil and gas and to assess forecast uncertainty. This is done by defining a stochastic model for the reservoir characteristics, generating realizations from this model and applying a fluid flow simulator to the realizations. The reservoir characteristics define the geometry of the reservoir, initial saturation, petrophysical properties etc. This thesis discusses how to generate realizations constrained by production data, that is to say, the realizations should reproduce the observed production history of the petroleum reservoir within the uncertainty of these data. The topics discussed are: (1) Theoretical framework, (2) History matching, forecasting and forecasting uncertainty, (3) A three-dimensional test case, (4) Modelling transmissibility multipliers by Markov random fields, (5) Up scaling, (6) The link between model parameters, well observations and production history in a simple test case, (7) Sampling the posterior using optimization in a hierarchical model, (8) A comparison of Rejection Sampling and Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, (9) Stochastic simulation and conditioning by annealing in reservoir description, and (10) Uncertainty assessment in history matching and forecasting. 139 refs., 85 figs., 1 tab.

  14. Atmospheric Rivers in Climate Simulations: A Multi-model, Global Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, B.; Waliser, D. E.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play important roles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. To date, there have been very limited broad characterizations of AR representations in global weather and climate models despite the increasing awareness of ARs' global signatures and impacts in all continents. Part of the challenge in AR-related global model evaluation has been the lack of automated AR detection algorithms suitable for such applications. One such algorithm was recently developed, evaluated, and applied to reanalysis products to provide a baseline characterization of the global climatology of ARs (Guan and Waliser, 2015). In this work, the above algorithm is applied to 20-year, 6-hourly simulations by 24 global weather/climate models from the GASS-YoTC Multi-model Experiment. Multiple reanalysis products are used as references. Model performance is examined for key characteristics of ARs (frequency, geometry, intensity, climate variations, etc.), with the focus on identifying and understanding systematic biases in simulated ARs. The results highlight the range of model performances relative to reanalysis uncertainties in representing the most basic features of ARs. Possible connections between AR simulation qualities and model configurations (e.g., spatial resolution, air-sea coupling) will be discussed. The work will contribute to the development of a suite of AR simulation diagnostics and model performance metrics and associated software packages.

  15. Industrial Implementation of Models for Joint Production and Maintenance Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Macchi, Marco; Pozzetti, Alessandro; Fumagalli, Luca

    2014-01-01

    Part 2: Knowledge Discovery and Sharing; International audience; The paper aims at investigating the industrial applicability of models for joint production and maintenance planning. Scientific community has paid attention to this issue for decades and more recently many researchers proposed models to optimize such kind of planning. Nevertheless each scientific work is based on its peculiarities and hypothesis, which might prevent the applicability within different industrial contexts. This i...

  16. Irreducible integrable theories form tensor products of conformal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathur, S.D.; Warner, N.P.

    1991-01-01

    By using Toda field theories we show that there are perturbations of direct products of conformal theories that lead to irreducible integrable field theories. The same affine Toda theory can be truncated to different quantum integrable models for different choices of the charge at infinity and the coupling. The classification of integrable models that can be obtained in this fashion follows the classification of symmetric spaces of type G/H with rank H = rank G. (orig.)

  17. The Use of Reanalysis Data for Wind Resource Assessment at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elliott, D.; Schwartz, M.; George, R.

    1999-01-01

    An important component of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory wind resource assessment methodology is the use of available upper-air data to construct detailed vertical profiles for a study region. Currently, the most useful upper-air data for this type of analysis are archived observations from approximately 1800 rawinsonde and pilot balloon stations worldwide. However, significant uncertainty exists in the accuracy of the constructed profiles for many regions. The United States Reanalysis Data Set, recently created by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, has the potential to improve the quality of the vertical profiles. The initial evaluation of the usefulness of the Reanalysis data for wind resource assessment consisted of contrasting reanalysis-derived vertical profiles of the wind characteristics to those generated from upper-air observations for comparable locations. The results indicate that, while reanalysis data can be substituted for upper-air observation data in the assessment methodology for areas of the world where observation data are limited, enough discrepancies with observation data have been noticed to warrant further studies

  18. Dissociating retrieval interference and reanalysis in the P600 during sentence comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner, Darren; Grey, Sarah; van Hell, Janet G

    2017-02-01

    We investigated the relative independence of two key processes in language comprehension, as reflected in the P600 ERP component. Numerous studies have linked the P600 to sentence- or message-level reanalysis; however, much research has shown that skilled, cue-based memory retrieval operations are also important to successful language processing. Our goal was to identify whether these cue-based retrieval operations are part of the reanalysis processes indexed by the P600. To this end, participants read sentences that were either grammatical or ungrammatical via subject-verb agreement violations, and in which there was either no possibility for retrieval interference or there was an attractor noun interfering with the computation of subject-verb agreement (e.g., "The slogan on the political poster(s) was/were …"). A stimulus onset asynchrony manipulation (fast, medium, or slow presentation rate) was designed to modulate participants' ability to engage in reanalysis processes. Results showed a reliable attraction interference effect, indexed by reduced behavioral sensitivity to ungrammaticalities and P600 amplitudes when there was an opportunity for retrieval interference, as well as an effect of presentation rate, with reduced behavioral sensitivity and smaller P600 effects at faster presentation rates. Importantly, there was no interaction between the two, suggesting that retrieval interference and sentence-level reanalysis processes indexed by the P600 can be neurocognitively distinct processes. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

  19. Re-Analysis of QPO in 3C 273 Light Curve P. Mohan1,∗ , A ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    c Indian Academy of Sciences. Re-Analysis of QPO in 3C 273 Light Curve. P. Mohan1,∗. , A. Mangalam1, Hum Chand2 & Alok C. Gupta2. 1Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Sarjapur Road, Koramangala, Bangalore 560 034, India. 2Aryabhatta Research Institute of Observational Sciences (ARIES), Nainital 263 129, India. ∗.

  20. Modeling Manpower and Equipment Productivity in Tall Building Construction Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudumbai Krishnaswamy, Parthasarathy; Rajiah, Murugasan; Vasan, Ramya

    2017-12-01

    Tall building construction projects involve two critical resources of manpower and equipment. Their usage, however, widely varies due to several factors affecting their productivity. Currently, no systematic study for estimating and increasing their productivity is available. What is prevalent is the use of empirical data, experience of similar projects and assumptions. As tall building projects are here to stay and increase, to meet the emerging demands in ever shrinking urban spaces, it is imperative to explore ways and means of scientific productivity models for basic construction activities: concrete, reinforcement, formwork, block work and plastering for the input of specific resources in a mixed environment of manpower and equipment usage. Data pertaining to 72 tall building projects in India were collected and analyzed. Then, suitable productivity estimation models were developed using multiple linear regression analysis and validated using independent field data. It is hoped that the models developed in the study will be useful for quantity surveyors, cost engineers and project managers to estimate productivity of resources in tall building projects.

  1. Combining surface reanalysis and remote sensing data for monitoring evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, M.; Tu, K.; Funk, C.; Michaelsen, J.; Williams, Pat; Williams, C.; Ardö, J.; Marie, B.; Cappelaere, B.; Grandcourt, A.; Nickless, A.; Noubellon, Y.; Scholes, R.; Kutsch, W.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact on the world's poor. In the Sahel, a climatically sensitive region where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood, expected decreases in water supply will increase food insecurity. Studies on climate change and the intensification of the water cycle in sub-Saharan Africa are few. This is due in part to poor calibration of modeled actual evapotranspiration (AET), a key input in continental-scale hydrologic models. In this study, a model driven by dynamic canopy AET was combined with the Global Land Data Assimilation System realization of the NOAH Land Surface Model (GNOAH) wet canopy and soil AET for monitoring purposes in sub-Saharan Africa. The performance of the hybrid model was compared against AET from the GNOAH model and dynamic model using eight eddy flux towers representing major biomes of sub-Saharan Africa. The greatest improvements in model performance are at humid sites with dense vegetation, while performance at semi-arid sites is poor, but better than individual models. The reduction in errors using the hybrid model can be attributed to the integration of a dynamic vegetation component with land surface model estimates, improved model parameterization, and reduction of multiplicative effects of uncertain data.

  2. Inner products in integrable Richardson-Gaudin models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter W. Claeys, Dimitri Van Neck, Stijn De Baerdemacker

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We present the inner products of eigenstates in integrable Richardson-Gaudin models from two different perspectives and derive two classes of Gaudin-like determinant expressions for such inner products. The requirement that one of the states is on-shell arises naturally by demanding that a state has a dual representation. By implicitly combining these different representations, inner products can be recast as domain wall boundary partition functions. The structure of all involved matrices in terms of Cauchy matrices is made explicit and used to show how one of the classes returns the Slavnov determinant formula. This framework provides a further connection between two different approaches for integrable models, one in which everything is expressed in terms of rapidities satisfying Bethe equations, and one in which everything is expressed in terms of the eigenvalues of conserved charges, satisfying quadratic equations.

  3. Duplication Detection When Evolving Feature Models of Software Product Lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amal Khtira

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available After the derivation of specific applications from a software product line, the applications keep evolving with respect to new customer’s requirements. In general, evolutions in most industrial projects are expressed using natural language, because it is the easiest and the most flexible way for customers to express their needs. However, the use of this means of communication has shown its limits in detecting defects, such as inconsistency and duplication, when evolving the existing models of the software product line. The aim of this paper is to transform the natural language specifications of new evolutions into a more formal representation using natural language processing. Then, an algorithm is proposed to automatically detect duplication between these specifications and the existing product line feature models. In order to instantiate the proposed solution, a tool is developed to automatize the two operations.

  4. Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Vidal

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Physically-based droughts can be defined as a water deficit in at least one component of the land surface hydrological cycle. The reliance of different activity domains (water supply, irrigation, hydropower, etc. on specific components of this cycle requires drought monitoring to be based on indices related to meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts. This paper describes a high-resolution retrospective analysis of such droughts in France over the last fifty years, based on the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM hydrometeorological suite. The high-resolution 1958–2008 Safran atmospheric reanalysis was used to force the Isba land surface scheme and the hydrogeological model Modcou. Meteorological droughts are characterized with the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI at time scales varying from 1 to 24 months. Similar standardizing methods were applied to soil moisture and streamflow for identifying multiscale agricultural droughts – through the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI – and multiscale hydrological droughts, through the Standardized Flow Index (SFI. Based on a common threshold level for all indices, drought event statistics over the 50-yr period – number of events, duration, severity and magnitude – have been derived locally in order to highlight regional differences at multiple time scales and at multiple levels of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, streamflow. Results show a substantial variety of temporal drought patterns over the country that are highly dependent on both the variable and time scale considered. Independent spatio-temporal drought events have then been identified and described by combining local characteristics with the evolution of area under drought. Summary statistics have finally been used to compare past severe drought events, from multi-year precipitation deficits (1989–1990 to short hot and dry periods (2003. Results show that the ranking of drought events depends highly

  5. Toward Reanalysis of the Tight-Pitch HCLWR-PROTEUS Phase II Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perret, Grégory; Vlassopoulos, Efstathios; Hursin, Mathieu; Pautz, Andreas

    2016-03-01

    The HCLWR-Proteus Phase II experiments were conducted from 1985 to 1990 in the zero-power reactor Proteus at PSI in Switzerland. The experimental program was dedicated to the physics of high conversion light water reactors and in particular to the measurement of reactor parameters such as reaction rate traverses, spectral indices, absorber reactivity worths and void coefficients. The HCLWR experiments are especially interesting because they generated knowledge in the epithermal range of the neutron flux spectrum, for which little integral experimental data is available. In an effort to assess the interest of this experimental data to validate modern nuclear data and improve their uncertainties, a preliminary re-analysis of selected configurations was conducted with Monte-Carlo codes (MCNP6/SERPENT2) and modern nuclear data libraries (ENDF/B-VII.0, JEFF-3.1.1 and JENDL-4.0). The spectral ndices, flux spectra and sensitivity coefficients on k∞ were calculated using cell models representative of the tight-pitch measurement configurations containing 11% PuO2-UO2 fuel rods in different moderation conditions (air, water and dowtherm). Spectral index predictions using the three nuclear data libraries agreed within two standard deviations with the measured values. The only exception is the Pu-242-capture-to-Pu-239-fission ratio, which was overestimated with all libraries by more than four standard deviations, i.e. 13%, in the non-moderated configuration. In this configuration, Pu-242 captures are few since the flux spectrum in the Pu-242 capture resonance region (between 1eV and 1keV) is small making this spectral index hard to measure. Sensitivity coefficient predictions with both MCNP6 and SERPENT2 were in good agreement.

  6. Multivariate Product-Shot-noise Cox Point Process Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jalilian, Abdollah; Guan, Yongtao; Mateu, Jorge

    We introduce a new multivariate product-shot-noise Cox process which is useful for model- ing multi-species spatial point patterns with clustering intra-specific interactions and neutral, negative or positive inter-specific interactions. The auto and cross pair correlation functions of the process...

  7. A model for the evaluation of different production strategies for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An interactive user-friendly computer package is being developed to assist planners and managers with the evaluation of different livestock production strategies in semi-arid regions. It comprises a hierarchy of simulation models that predict over time the effects of past and present rainfall, stocking rates, milking and sales ...

  8. A semianalytic model for the productivity testing of multiple wells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fokker, P.A.; Verga, F.

    2008-01-01

    We present a semianalytic method for modeling the productivity testing of vertical, horizontal, slanted, or multilateral wells. The method is applicable to both oil and gas reservoirs and automatically accounts for well interference. The use of analytic expressions ensures that short-time transient

  9. empirical model for predicting rate of biogas production

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    users

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  10. Empirical Model for Predicting Rate of Biogas Production | Adamu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rate of biogas production using cow manure as substrate was monitored in two laboratory scale batch reactors (13 liter and 108 liter capacities). Two empirical models based on the Gompertz and the modified logistic equations were used to fit the experimental data based on non-linear regression analysis using Solver tool ...

  11. How can Product Development Process Modelling be made more useful?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wynn, David C; Maier, Anja; Clarkson, John P

    2010-01-01

    A significant body of research exists in the area of Product Development (PD) process modelling. This is highlighted by Browning and Ramasesh (2007), who recently reviewed over 400 papers in this field. However, despite hundreds, probably thousands of publications in this area, few of the proposed...

  12. Revised models and genetic parameter estimates for production and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Genetic parameters for production and reproduction traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud were estimated using records of 11743 lambs born between 1943 and 2002. An animal model with direct and maternal additive, maternal permanent and temporary environmental effects was fitted for traits considered traits of the ...

  13. Buys-Ballot Modeling of Nigerian Domestic Crude Oil Production ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper has examined time series analysis of Nigeria domestic crude oil production, the descriptive approach of time series analysis. Buys-Ballot table procedure was used in assessing variance stability (transformation), choice of model and seasonal effect. Inverse square root transformation was carried to stabilize the ...

  14. Product Lifecycle Management Architecture: A Model Based Systems Engineering Analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noonan, Nicholas James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-07-01

    This report is an analysis of the Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) program. The analysis is centered on a need statement generated by a Nuclear Weapons (NW) customer. The need statement captured in this report creates an opportunity for the PLM to provide a robust service as a solution. Lifecycles for both the NW and PLM are analyzed using Model Based System Engineering (MBSE).

  15. The influence of fragmentation models in the production of hadron ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    555–563. The influence of fragmentation models in the production of hadron jets in electron–positron annihilation. M HASHEMINIA1,∗, A MIRJALILI1, M E ZOMORRODIAN2 and. A SEPEHRI3. 1Physics Department, Yazd University, P.O. Box 89195-741, Yazd, Iran. 2Department of Physics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, ...

  16. Metabolic modeling of mixed substrate uptake for polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, Y.; Hebly, M.; Kleerebezem, R.; Muyzer, G.; van Loosdrecht, M.C.M.

    2011-01-01

    Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production by mixed microbial communities can be established in a two-stage process, consisting of a microbial enrichment step and a PHA accumulation step. In this study, a mathematical model was constructed for evaluating the influence of the carbon substrate composition

  17. A single product perishing inventory model with demand interaction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper describes a single perishing product inventory model in which items deteriorate in two phases and then perish. An independent demand takes place at constant rates for items in both phases. A demand for an item in Phase I not satisfied may be satisfied by an item in Phase II, based on a probability measure.

  18. Traceability for Model Driven, Software Product Line Engineering

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anquetil, N.; Grammel, B.; Galvao, I.; Noppen, J.A.R.; Shakil Khan, S.; Arboleda, H.; Rashid, A.; Garcia, A.

    Traceability is an important challenge for software organizations. This is true for traditional software development and even more so in new approaches that introduce more variety of artefacts such as Model Driven development or Software Product Lines. In this paper we look at some aspect of the

  19. Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bindi, M.; Palosuo, T.; Trnka, Miroslav; Semenov, M. A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, SEP (2015), s. 3-5 ISSN 0936-577X Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Crop production Upscaling * Climate change impact and adaptation assessments * Upscaling * Model ensembles Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.690, year: 2015

  20. Particle production at large transverse momentum and hard collision models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranft, G.; Ranft, J.

    1977-04-01

    The majority of the presently available experimental data is consistent with hard scattering models. Therefore the hard scattering model seems to be well established. There is good evidence for jets in large transverse momentum reactions as predicted by these models. The overall picture is however not yet well enough understood. We mention only the empirical hard scattering cross section introduced in most of the models, the lack of a deep theoretical understanding of the interplay between quark confinement and jet production, and the fact that we are not yet able to discriminate conclusively between the many proposed hard scattering models. The status of different hard collision models discussed in this paper is summarized. (author)

  1. Employment, Production and Consumption model: Patterns of phase transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavička, H.; Lin, L.; Novotný, J.

    2010-04-01

    We have simulated the model of Employment, Production and Consumption (EPC) using Monte Carlo. The EPC model is an agent based model that mimics very basic rules of industrial economy. From the perspective of physics, the nature of the interactions in the EPC model represents multi-agent interactions where the relations among agents follow the key laws for circulation of capital and money. Monte Carlo simulations of the stochastic model reveal phase transition in the model economy. The two phases are the phase with full unemployment and the phase with nearly full employment. The economy switches between these two states suddenly as a reaction to a slight variation in the exogenous parameter, thus the system exhibits strong non-linear behavior as a response to the change of the exogenous parameters.

  2. Validating HadCM3 from NCEP re-analysis by seasonal extreme temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucio, P. S.; Corte-Real, J.; Silva, A. M.

    2003-04-01

    The debate on the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, confusing the climate change impact analysis and the decision-makers. In this paper we attempt to quantify the space-time uncertainties surrounding the extreme temperature’s response. Climatic and meteorological risk analy-sis and forecasting concerns, among others topics, analysis of recurrence of long duration extreme values. A statistical-dynamical analysis is carried on to derive a climatological characterization of different areas. For particular depend-ent sequences and in a context of statistical extremes, a relevant parameter appears to be the extremal index. Important parameters of rare events, which are functions of this index, are the high quantiles, and the return period for an established level. We consider the influence of the extremal index working with the method of the annual maximal or minimal. We analyse the extreme annual temperatures for the reference pe-riod 1960-61 to 1989-90 based on NCEP re-analysis to validate the HadCM3 model output over Europe. The aim of this study is to analyse whether the extreme values of the time series can detect changes, supporting the assumption of global warming during these years. We use the maximal and minimal seasonal temperatures (“DJF” for winter and “JJA” for summer) as well as the spatiotemporal clustering of extreme temperatures for this analysis. The present study points to the conclusion that, in terms of extremes, the simulations of HadCM3 reasonably reproduce those of NCEP re-analyses, a conclusion that not always emerge from the consideration of the ensembles of daily simulated and analysed fields. Consequently, all diagnostic plots led support to the fitted GEV model for extrapolation, suggesting that the HadCM3 is adequate for forecasting future extreme scenarios. Though uncertainty is inherent in any statistical model, such uncertainties can be reduced by judicious choices of model and inference, and by the utilization of all

  3. Sustainable crop models for fruit, vegetable and flower quality productions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inglese Paolo

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable development is a paradigm that has evolved over the time, since the ideas of socially acceptable and compatible development, on which it was originally based, are now supported by the more recent notions of ecological equilibria and production process economy, both of which need to be also preserved. Environmental and health safety, rational use of the natural resources and technological tools, upkeep of high social growth rates and respect of a social equity are the basis of the sustainability for any production process, including the agriculture. The new globalization framework has penalized small farms and, at the same time, has put serious constraints to the development of stronger economic systems (medium/large farms, as well. As consequence, the EU has outlined several strategic programs to support small agricultural systems in marginal areas by: 1 strengthening all the quality- related aspects of agricultural production, including nutritional and cultural traits associated to local, typical and in some cases to neglected crops; 2 improving traditional cultural practices by adapting the cropping cycles and fomenting new partnerships between the different parts of the production chain, as for example; promotion of small horticultural chains. Specific political actions for the horticultural production sector have also been developed. Some of these policies are specifically addressed to preserve the biodiversity and to create quality labels certifying typical and/or organic products. All of these are possible strategies that may counteract and cope with the globalization process and increase the competitiveness of many production systems especially those performed by local and small entrepreneurs. New sustainable development models are required by both the market and the implicit requirements of the production system, inside a context on which Europe must face with new emerging economies with lower production costs, by increasing

  4. Modeling population exposures to silver nanoparticles present in consumer products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royce, Steven G.; Mukherjee, Dwaipayan; Cai, Ting; Xu, Shu S.; Alexander, Jocelyn A.; Mi, Zhongyuan; Calderon, Leonardo; Mainelis, Gediminas; Lee, KiBum; Lioy, Paul J.; Tetley, Teresa D.; Chung, Kian Fan; Zhang, Junfeng; Georgopoulos, Panos G.

    2014-11-01

    Exposures of the general population to manufactured nanoparticles (MNPs) are expected to keep rising due to increasing use of MNPs in common consumer products (PEN 2014). The present study focuses on characterizing ambient and indoor population exposures to silver MNPs (nAg). For situations where detailed, case-specific exposure-related data are not available, as in the present study, a novel tiered modeling system, Prioritization/Ranking of Toxic Exposures with GIS (geographic information system) Extension (PRoTEGE), has been developed: it employs a product life cycle analysis (LCA) approach coupled with basic human life stage analysis (LSA) to characterize potential exposures to chemicals of current and emerging concern. The PRoTEGE system has been implemented for ambient and indoor environments, utilizing available MNP production, usage, and properties databases, along with laboratory measurements of potential personal exposures from consumer spray products containing nAg. Modeling of environmental and microenvironmental levels of MNPs employs probabilistic material flow analysis combined with product LCA to account for releases during manufacturing, transport, usage, disposal, etc. Human exposure and dose characterization further employ screening microenvironmental modeling and intake fraction methods combined with LSA for potentially exposed populations, to assess differences associated with gender, age, and demographics. Population distributions of intakes, estimated using the PRoTEGE framework, are consistent with published individual-based intake estimates, demonstrating that PRoTEGE is capable of capturing realistic exposure scenarios for the US population. Distributions of intakes are also used to calculate biologically relevant population distributions of uptakes and target tissue doses through human airway dosimetry modeling that takes into account product MNP size distributions and age-relevant physiological parameters.

  5. Yarrowia lipolytica: a model yeast for citric acid production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavallo, Ema; Charreau, Hernán; Cerrutti, Patricia; Foresti, María Laura

    2017-12-01

    Every year more than 2 million tons of citric acid (CA) are produced around the world for industrial uses. Although initially extracted from citrus, the low profitability of the process and the increasing demand soon stimulated the search for more efficient methods to produce CA. Currently, most world CA demand (99%) is satisfied by fermentations with microorganisms, especially filamentous fungi and yeasts. CA production with yeasts has certain advantages over molds (e.g. higher productivity and easier cultivation), which in the last two decades have triggered a clear increase in publications and patents devoted to the use of yeasts in this field. Yarrowia lipolytica has become a model yeast that proved to be successful in different production systems. Considering the current interest evidenced in the literature, the most significant information on CA production using Y. lipolytica is summarized. The relevance on CA yields of key factors such as strains, media formulation, environmental conditions and production regimes is thoroughly discussed, with particular focus on increasing CA productivity. Besides, the possibility of tuning the mentioned variables to reduce concomitant isocitric acid production-the biggest disadvantage of using yeasts-is analyzed. Available methods for CA purification/quantification are also discussed. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Quantitative Analysis of Probabilistic Models of Software Product Lines with Statistical Model Checking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maurice H. ter Beek

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the suitability of statistical model checking techniques for analysing quantitative properties of software product line models with probabilistic aspects. For this purpose, we enrich the feature-oriented language FLan with action rates, which specify the likelihood of exhibiting particular behaviour or of installing features at a specific moment or in a specific order. The enriched language (called PFLan allows us to specify models of software product lines with probabilistic configurations and behaviour, e.g. by considering a PFLan semantics based on discrete-time Markov chains. The Maude implementation of PFLan is combined with the distributed statistical model checker MultiVeStA to perform quantitative analyses of a simple product line case study. The presented analyses include the likelihood of certain behaviour of interest (e.g. product malfunctioning and the expected average cost of products.

  7. ISRU System Model Tool: From Excavation to Oxygen Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago-Maldonado, Edgardo; Linne, Diane L.

    2007-01-01

    In the late 80's, conceptual designs for an in situ oxygen production plant were documented in a study by Eagle Engineering [1]. In the "Summary of Findings" of this study, it is clearly pointed out that: "reported process mass and power estimates lack a consistent basis to allow comparison." The study goes on to say: "A study to produce a set of process mass, power, and volume requirements on a consistent basis is recommended." Today, approximately twenty years later, as humans plan to return to the moon and venture beyond, the need for flexible up-to-date models of the oxygen extraction production process has become even more clear. Multiple processes for the production of oxygen from lunar regolith are being investigated by NASA, academia, and industry. Three processes that have shown technical merit are molten regolith electrolysis, hydrogen reduction, and carbothermal reduction. These processes have been selected by NASA as the basis for the development of the ISRU System Model Tool (ISMT). In working to develop up-to-date system models for these processes NASA hopes to accomplish the following: (1) help in the evaluation process to select the most cost-effective and efficient process for further prototype development, (2) identify key parameters, (3) optimize the excavation and oxygen production processes, and (4) provide estimates on energy and power requirements, mass and volume of the system, oxygen production rate, mass of regolith required, mass of consumables, and other important parameters. Also, as confidence and high fidelity is achieved with each component's model, new techniques and processes can be introduced and analyzed at a fraction of the cost of traditional hardware development and test approaches. A first generation ISRU System Model Tool has been used to provide inputs to the Lunar Architecture Team studies.

  8. Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

  9. Production functions for climate policy modeling. An empirical analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Werf, Edwin

    2008-01-01

    Quantitative models for climate policy modeling differ in the production structure used and in the sizes of the elasticities of substitution. The empirical foundation for both is generally lacking. This paper estimates the parameters of 2-level CES production functions with capital, labour and energy as inputs, and is the first to systematically compare all nesting structures. Using industry-level data from 12 OECD countries, we find that the nesting structure where capital and labour are combined first, fits the data best, but for most countries and industries we cannot reject that all three inputs can be put into one single nest. These two nesting structures are used by most climate models. However, while several climate policy models use a Cobb-Douglas function for (part of the) production function, we reject elasticities equal to one, in favour of considerably smaller values. Finally we find evidence for factor-specific technological change. With lower elasticities and with factor-specific technological change, some climate policy models may find a bigger effect of endogenous technological change on mitigating the costs of climate policy. (author)

  10. Educational productivity in higher education : An examination of part of the Walberg Educational Productivity Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruinsma, M.; Jansen, E. P. W. A.

    Several factors in the H. J. Walberg Educational Productivity Model, which assumes that 9 factors affect academic achievement, were examined with a limited sample of 1st-year students in the University of Groningen. Information concerning 8 of these factors - grades, motivation, age, prior

  11. Local business models for district heat production; Kaukolaemmoen paikalliset liiketoimintamallit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hakala, L.; Pesola, A.; Vanhanen, J.

    2012-12-15

    Local district heating business, outside large urban centers, is a profitable business in Finland, which can be practiced with several different business models. In addition to the traditional, local district heating business, local district heat production can be also based on franchising business model, on integrated service model or on different types of cooperation models, either between a local district heat producer and industrial site providing surplus heat or between a local district heat producer and a larger district heating company. Locally available wood energy is currently utilized effectively in the traditional district heating business model, in which a local entrepreneur produces heat to consumers in the local area. The franchising model is a more advanced version of the traditional district heating entrepreneurship. In this model, franchisor funds part of the investments, as well as offers centralized maintenance and fuel supply, for example. In the integrated service model, the local district heat producer offers also energy efficiency services and other value-added services, which are based on either the local district heat suppliers or his partner's expertise. In the cooperation model with industrial site, the local district heating business is based on the utilization of the surplus heat from the industrial site. In some cases, profitable operating model approach may be a district heating company outsourcing operations of one or more heating plants to a local entrepreneur. It can be concluded that all business models for district heat production (traditional district heat business model, franchising, integrated service model, cooperative model) discussed in this report can be profitable in Finnish conditions, as well for the local heat producer as for the municipality - and, above all, they produce cost-competitive heat for the end-user. All the models were seen as viable and interesting and having possibilities for expansion Finland

  12. A game-theoretical model of private power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xing, W.; Wu, F.F.

    2001-01-01

    Private power production has sprung up all over the world. The build-operate-transfer (BOT) arrangement has emerged as one of the most important options for private power production, especially in developing countries with rapidly growing demand and financial shortages. Based on oligopoly theory, the paper proposes a Stackelberg game model between a BOT investor and an electric utility whereby they can negotiate a long-term energy contract. Asymmetric pricing schemes are taken into account such that a host utility purchases electricity from a BOT company at its ''avoided cost'', and sells its electricity to end users at its ''average cost''. Our Stackelberg game model is transferred into a two-level optimization problem, and then solved by an iterative algorithm. The game model is demonstrated by an illustrative example. (author)

  13. Reanalysis of mortality from lung cancer among diatomaceous earth industry workers, with consideration of potential confounding by asbestos exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Checkoway, H; Heyer, N J; Demers, P A; Gibbs, G W

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential for confounding from asbestos exposure, primarily chrysotile, on the relation between crystalline silica and mortality from lung cancer among diatomaceous earth (diatomite) workers. METHODS: A reanalysis of a cohort mortality study of diatomite workers was performed to take into account quantitative estimates of asbestos exposure. The reanalysis was limited to a subset of the original cohort, comprising 2266 white men for whom asbestos exposure could be reconstructed with greatest confidence. Comparisons between mortality from lung cancer (standardised mortality ratios (SMR)) were made between rates for 1942-87 for United States white men, and workers cross classified according to cumulative exposures to crystalline silica and asbestos. Comparisons of internal rates, involving Poisson regression modeling, were conducted for exposure to crystalline silica, with and without adjustment for asbestos exposure. Exposures were lagged by 15 years to take into account disease latency. RESULTS: There was an overall excess of lung cancer (SMR 1.41; 52 observed). The SMRs for four categories of increasing crystalline silica among the workers not exposed to asbestos were 1.13, 0.87, 2.14, 2.00. An SMR of 8.31 (three observed) was found for workers with the highest cumulative exposure to both dusts. Internal analysis, after adjustment for asbestos exposure, yielded rate ratios for categories of exposure to crystalline silica: 1.00 (reference), 1.37, 1.80, and 1.79. CONCLUSIONS: Asbestos exposure was not an important confounder of the association between crystalline silica and mortality from lung cancer in this cohort. Although based on a small number of deaths from lung cancer, the data suggest possible synergy between these exposures. An extended follow up of this cohort is in progress and should enable better assessments of independent and combined effects on risk of lung cancer. PMID:8882123

  14. Evaluation of multiple precipitation products across Mainland China using the triple collocation method without ground truth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Li, C.; Hong, Y.; Long, D.

    2017-12-01

    Proliferation of satellite and reanalysis precipitation products underscores the need to evaluate their reliability, particularly over ungauged or poorly gauged regions. However, it is really challenging to perform such evaluations over regions lacking ground truth data. Here, using the triple collocation (TC) method that is capable of evaluating relative uncertainties in different products without ground truth, we evaluate five satellite-based precipitation products and comparatively assess uncertainties in three types of independent precipitation products, e.g., satellite-based, ground-observed, and model reanalysis over Mainland China, including a ground-based precipitation dataset (the gauge based daily precipitation analysis, CGDPA), the latest version of the European reanalysis agency reanalysis (ERA-interim) product, and five satellite-based products (i.e., 3B42V7, 3B42RT of TMPA, IMERG, CMORPH-CRT, PERSIANN-CDR) on a regular 0.25° grid at the daily timescale from 2013 to 2015. First, the effectiveness of the TC method is evaluated by comparison with traditional methods based on ground observations in a densely gauged region. Results show that the TC method is reliable because the correlation coefficient (CC) and root mean square error (RMSE) are close to those based on the traditional method with a maximum difference only up to 0.08 and 0.71 (mm/day) for CC and RMSE, respectively. Then, the TC method is applied to Mainland China and the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Results indicate that: (1) the overall performance of IMERG is better than the other satellite products over Mainland China; (2) over grid cells without rain gauges in the TP, IMERG and ERA show better performance than CGDPA, indicating the potential of remote sensing and reanalysis data over these regions and the inherent uncertainty of CGDPA due to interpolation using sparsely gauged data; (3) both TMPA-3B42 and CMORPH-CRT have some unexpected CC values over certain grid cells that contain water

  15. Mathematical model of rhamnolipid production using E.coli bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adham, Muhammad Fariduddin; Apri, Mochamad; Moeis, Maelita Ramdani

    2018-03-01

    Rhamnolipid is one of biosurfactants that is widely used in many industries. Despite its wide use, production of rhamnolipid usually involves a pathogen that may endanger our health. To tackle this issue, in iGEM (International Genetically Engineered Machine) competition 2015, our team engineered Escherichia coli (E.coli) to produce rhamnolipid. The bacteria were then put into medium containing glucose and lactose. It turned out that bacteria E. coli produced lower rhamnolipid than that by pseudomonas, therefore a good strategy is required to improve their productivity. We present a mathematical model to describe the production of rhamnolipid by the engineered E coli. Using bifurcation analysis, the equilibrium points of the model and their stabilities were analyzed as the amount of lactose was varied. We show that the system produces bistability behavior for some interval values of lactose. From this analysis we found that to guarantee a high production of rhamnolipid, a high level of lactose is required. To maintain the productivity, however, it is sufficient to maintain the lactose level above a certain threshold value.

  16. Improving Power System Modeling. A Tool to Link Capacity Expansion and Production Cost Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diakov, Victor [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, Robert [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Capacity expansion models (CEM) provide a high-level long-term view at the prospects of the evolving power system. In simulating the possibilities of long-term capacity expansion, it is important to maintain the viability of power system operation in the short-term (daily, hourly and sub-hourly) scales. Production-cost models (PCM) simulate routine power system operation on these shorter time scales using detailed load, transmission and generation fleet data by minimizing production costs and following reliability requirements. When based on CEM 'predictions' about generating unit retirements and buildup, PCM provide more detailed simulation for the short-term system operation and, consequently, may confirm the validity of capacity expansion predictions. Further, production cost model simulations of a system that is based on capacity expansion model solution are 'evolutionary' sound: the generator mix is the result of logical sequence of unit retirement and buildup resulting from policy and incentives. The above has motivated us to bridge CEM with PCM by building a capacity expansion - to - production cost model Linking Tool (CEPCoLT). The Linking Tool is built to onset capacity expansion model prescriptions onto production cost model inputs. NREL's ReEDS and Energy Examplar's PLEXOS are the capacity expansion and the production cost models, respectively. Via the Linking Tool, PLEXOS provides details of operation for the regionally-defined ReEDS scenarios.

  17. Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

  18. [Characteristics of terrestrial ecosystem primary productivity in East Asia based on remote sensing and process-based model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fang-Min; Ju, Wei-Min; Chen, Jing-Ming; Wang, Shao-Qiang; Yu, Gui-Rui; Han, Shi-Jie

    2012-02-01

    Based on the bi-linearly interpolated meteorological reanalysis data from National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA and by using the leaf area index data derived from the GIMMS NDVI to run the process-based Boreal Ecosystems Productivity Simulator (BEPS) model, this paper simulated and analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the terrestrial ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) in East Asia in 2000-2005. Before regional simulating and calculating, the observation GPP data of different terrestrial ecosystem in 15 experimental stations of AsiaFlux network and the inventory measurements of NPP at 1300 sampling sites were applied to validate the BEPS GPP and NPP. The results showed that BEPS could well simulate the changes in GPP and NPP of different terrestrial ecosystems, with the R2 ranging from 0.86 to 0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE) from 0.2 to 1.2 g C x m(-2) x d(-1). The simulated values by BEPS could explain 78% of the changes in annual NPP, and the RMSE was 118 g C x m(-2) x a(-1). In 2000-2005, the averaged total GPP and total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia were 21.7 and 10.5 Pg C x a(-1), respectively, and the GPP and NPP exhibited similar spatial and temporal variation patterns. During the six years, the total NPP of the terrestrial ecosystems varied from 10.2 to 10.7 Pg C x a(-1), with a coefficient of variation being 2. 2%. High NPP (above 1000 g C x m(-2) x a(-1)) occurred in the southeast island countries, while low NPP (below 30 g C x m(-2) x a(-1)) occurred in the desert area of Northwest China. The spatial patterns of NPP were mainly attributed to the differences in the climatic variables across East Asia. The NPP per capita also varied greatly among different countries, which was the highest (70217 kg C x a(-1)) in Mongolia, far higher than that (1921 kg C x a(-1)) in China, and the lowest (757 kg C x a(-1)) in India.

  19. Product Data Model for Performance-driven Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Guang-Zhong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Xiao, Shou-Ne; Yang, Guang-Wu; Pu, Fan

    2017-09-01

    When designing large-sized complex machinery products, the design focus is always on the overall performance; however, there exist no design theory and method based on performance driven. In view of the deficiency of the existing design theory, according to the performance features of complex mechanical products, the performance indices are introduced into the traditional design theory of "Requirement-Function-Structure" to construct a new five-domain design theory of "Client Requirement-Function-Performance-Structure-Design Parameter". To support design practice based on this new theory, a product data model is established by using performance indices and the mapping relationship between them and the other four domains. When the product data model is applied to high-speed train design and combining the existing research result and relevant standards, the corresponding data model and its structure involving five domains of high-speed trains are established, which can provide technical support for studying the relationships between typical performance indices and design parameters and the fast achievement of a high-speed train scheme design. The five domains provide a reference for the design specification and evaluation criteria of high speed train and a new idea for the train's parameter design.

  20. Modeling Electric Discharges with Entropy Production Rate Principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Christen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Under which circumstances are variational principles based on entropy production rate useful tools for modeling steady states of electric (gas discharge systems far from equilibrium? It is first shown how various different approaches, as Steenbeck’s minimum voltage and Prigogine’s minimum entropy production rate principles are related to the maximum entropy production rate principle (MEPP. Secondly, three typical examples are discussed, which provide a certain insight in the structure of the models that are candidates for MEPP application. It is then thirdly argued that MEPP, although not being an exact physical law, may provide reasonable model parameter estimates, provided the constraints contain the relevant (nonlinear physical effects and the parameters to be determined are related to disregarded weak constraints that affect mainly global entropy production. Finally, it is additionally conjectured that a further reason for the success of MEPP in certain far from equilibrium systems might be based on a hidden linearity of the underlying kinetic equation(s.

  1. Next Generation Agricultural System Data, Models and Knowledge Products: Introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antle, John M.; Jones, James W.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.

    2016-01-01

    Agricultural system models have become important tools to provide predictive and assessment capability to a growing array of decision-makers in the private and public sectors. Despite ongoing research and model improvements, many of the agricultural models today are direct descendants of research investments initially made 30-40 years ago, and many of the major advances in data, information and communication technology (ICT) of the past decade have not been fully exploited. The purpose of this Special Issue of Agricultural Systems is to lay the foundation for the next generation of agricultural systems data, models and knowledge products. The Special Issue is based on a 'NextGen' study led by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

  2. Modelling of the granular products vacuum freeze-dried process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Antipov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the work reviewed and simulated the process of vacuum freeze-drying of granular products with the destruction of the dried layer. As development of this direction serves the method based on removal of the dried product layer from a surface of a granule, formed in the form of spherical bodies and placed in the punched drum. After process of preliminary freezing of a granule get to the punched drum located in the vacuum drying chamber. In case of fixed hashing of granules of a product due to their friction among themselves and about drum walls a dry part of a product undergoes destruction and regularly separates from the refrigerated remaining balance. Process comes to an end when all product in a granule turns into dry powder. For creation of adequate model of process of drying, it is reasonable to consider a separate granule, but not a layer of granules in general, but taking into account influence of granules at each other in the course of drying. For this purpose, the scheme and mathematical description of radiation heat flux of the individual granules of the product. To account for the intermittent nature of exposure to granules suggested ratio and its two alternative approaches to its definition. As well as an algorithm for determining the coefficient that takes into account the one-sided irradiation of the pellets. Formulated mathematical model of the process the vacuum - freeze-drying of granular products, which is a one-dimensional parabolic boundary value problem with moving boundary. It includes the unsteady heat conduction equation, initial condition, boundary conditions and defining a movable boundary conditions. The sought quantities are the temperature field and the free boundary. Explained the origin of the functions of internal heat sources present in the equations of heat conduction.

  3. Parton recombination model including resonance production. RL-78-040

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberts, R.G.; Hwa, R.C.; Matsuda, S.

    1978-05-01

    Possible effects of resonance production on the meson inclusive distribution in the fragmentation region are investigated in the framework of the parton recombination model. From a detailed study of the data on vector-meson production, a reliable ratio of the vector-to-pseudoscalar rates is determined. Then the influence of the decay of the vector mesons on the pseudoscalar spectrum is examined, and the effect found to be no more than 25% for x > 0.5. The normalization of the non-strange antiquark distributions are still higher than those in a quiescent proton. The agreement between the calculated results and data remain very good. 36 references

  4. An Efficiency Model For Hydrogen Production In A Pressurized Electrolyzer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smoglie, Cecilia; Lauretta, Ricardo

    2010-09-15

    The use of Hydrogen as clean fuel at a world wide scale requires the development of simple, safe and efficient production and storage technologies. In this work, a methodology is proposed to produce Hydrogen and Oxygen in a self pressurized electrolyzer connected to separate containers that store each of these gases. A mathematical model for Hydrogen production efficiency is proposed to evaluate how such efficiency is affected by parasitic currents in the electrolytic solution. Experimental set-up and results for an electrolyzer are also presented. Comparison of empirical and analytical results shows good agreement.

  5. Application of product modelling - seen from a work preparation viewpoint

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars

    the specification work. The theoretical fundament of the project include four elements. The first element (work preparation) consider methods for analysing and preparing the direct work in the production, pointing to an analogy between analysing the direct work in the production and the work in the planning systems......, over building a model, and to the final programming of an application. It has been stressed out to carry out all the phases in the outline of procedure in the empirical work, one of the reasons being to prove that it is possible, with a reasonable consumption of resources, to build an application...

  6. Modeling productivity and transpiration of Pinus radiata: climatic effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheriff, D. W.; Mattay, J. P. [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT (Australia). Div. of Forestry and Forest Products; McMurtrie, R. E. [New South Wales Univ., Sydney, NSW (Australia)

    1996-01-01

    Using a process-based forest growth model, BIOMASS, the climatic effect on annual net carbon gain, stem biomass and annual transpiration were simulated for Pinus radiata. Regional variation in climate between Canberra and Mt. Gambier resulted in a 20 per cent difference in simulated annual transpiration rate, but only a relatively small difference in simulated productivity. Simulated carbon gain values averaged about 1.4 per cent; this result was not consistent with the predicted 8 per cent annual carbon assimilation difference between the two sites, based on differences in climate. These results suggest that climatic differences do not account for differences in productivity. 12 refs., 3 tabs., 2 figs.

  7. The problem of nucleon production in the quark parton model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranft, J.; Ranft, G.

    1977-06-01

    Quark fragmentation into hadrons, esp. nucleons, is studied fitting empirical fragmentation functions to e + e - annihilation data. We find fragmentation functions deviating from counting rule predictions as well as from scaling due to the threshold in kaon and nucleon production. Using these fragmentation functions we study particle production ratios in ep and large transverse momentum hadronic reactions. In both cases we find the ratios p/π + and antip/π - to agree roughly in magnitude with the measured ratios. The model is however inconsistent with the transverse momentum -12 behaviour of large transverse momentum proton spectra. (author)

  8. Nonlinear flow model for well production in an underground formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Guo

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Fluid flow in underground formations is a nonlinear process. In this article we modelled the nonlinear transient flow behaviour of well production in an underground formation. Based on Darcy's law and material balance equations, we used quadratic pressure gradients to deduce diffusion equations and discuss the origins of nonlinear flow issues. By introducing an effective-well-radius approach that considers skin factor, we established a nonlinear flow model for both gas and liquid (oil or water. The liquid flow model was solved using a semi-analytical method, while the gas flow model was solved using numerical simulations because the diffusion equation of gas flow is a stealth function of pressure. For liquid flow, a series of standard log-log type curves of pressure transients were plotted and nonlinear transient flow characteristics were analyzed. Qualitative and quantitative analyses were used to compare the solutions of the linear and nonlinear models. The effect of nonlinearity upon pressure transients should not be ignored. For gas flow, pressure transients were simulated and compared with oil flow under the same formation and well conditions, resulting in the conclusion that, under the same volume rate production, oil wells demand larger pressure drops than gas wells. Comparisons between theoretical data and field data show that nonlinear models will describe fluid flow in underground formations realistically and accurately.

  9. Modeling productivity and transpiration of Pinus radiata: climatic effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheriff, D. W.; Mattay, J. P.; McMurtrie, R. E.

    1996-01-01

    Climatic effects on annual net carbon gain, stem biomass and annual transpiration were simulated for Pinus radiata D. Don at Canberra and Mt. Gambier. Simulations were conducted with an existing process-based forest growth model (BIOMASS, Model 1) and with a modified version of the BIOMASS model (Model 2) in which response functions for carbon assimilation and leaf conductance were replaced with those derived from field gas exchange data collected at Mt. Gambier. Simulated carbon gain was compared with a published report stating that mean annual stem volume increment (MAI) at Mt. Gambier was 1.8 times greater than at Canberra and that the difference could be the result solely of differences in climate. Regional differences in climate resulted in a 20% greater simulated annual transpiration at Canberra than at Mt. Gambier but only small differences in simulated productivity, indicating that climatic differences did not account for the reported differences in productivity. With Model 1, simulated annual net carbon gain and annual increase in stem biomass were greater at Canberra than at Mt. Gambier, whereas Model 2 indicated a similar annual net carbon gain and annual stem biomass increase in both regions.

  10. TECHNICAL PRODUCT RISK ASSESSMENT: STANDARDS, INTEGRATION IN THE ERM MODEL AND UNCERTAINTY MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirko Djapic

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available European Union has accomplished, through introducing New Approach to technical harmonization and standardization, a breakthrough in the field of technical products safety and in assessing their conformity, in such a manner that it integrated products safety requirements into the process of products development. This is achieved by quantifying risk levels with the aim of determining the scope of the required safety measures and systems. The theory of probability is used as a tool for modeling uncertainties in the assessment of that risk. In the last forty years are developed new mathematical theories have proven to be better at modeling uncertainty when we have not enough data about uncertainty events which is usually the case in product development. Bayesian networks based on modeling of subjective probability and Evidence networks based on Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions proved to be an excellent tool for modeling uncertainty when we do not have enough information about all events aspect.

  11. Quantitative Analysis of Probabilistic Models of Software Product Lines with Statistical Model Checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the suitability of statistical model checking techniques for analysing quantitative properties of software product line models with probabilistic aspects. For this purpose, we enrich the feature-oriented language FLAN with action rates, which specify the likelihood of exhibiting...... particular behaviour or of installing features at a specific moment or in a specific order. The enriched language (called PFLAN) allows us to specify models of software product lines with probabilistic configurations and behaviour, e.g. by considering a PFLAN semantics based on discrete-time Markov chains....... The Maude implementation of PFLAN is combined with the distributed statistical model checker MultiVeStA to perform quantitative analyses of a simple product line case study. The presented analyses include the likelihood of certain behaviour of interest (e.g. product malfunctioning) and the expected average...

  12. Models for new particle production in nuclear collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schaefer, A.; Reinhardt, J.; Mueller, B.; Greiner, W.

    1986-04-01

    Following up our earlier work and also stimulated by recent experimental results on positron production in heavy ion collisions we investigate various mechanisms for the production of a light, previously unknown particle in such collisions. As more conventional mechanisms seem to be inadequate we concentrate on processes directly or indirectly connected with the strong electric or magnetic fields and quark degrees of freedom in nuclei. We also consider modifications of the color confinement scheme. Our analysis is confined to schemes staying within the framework of the standard SU(3)sub(C) x SU(2) x U(1) model. Since most of the possibilities discussed can be rejected, severe modifications of basic concepts of particle physics seem to be required if the production of a new particle is confirmed. (orig.)

  13. Modeling Hourly Resident Productivity in the Emergency Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Joshua W; Henning, Daniel J; Strouse, Connie S; Chiu, David T; Nathanson, Larry A; Sanchez, Leon D

    2017-08-01

    Resident productivity, defined as new patients per hour, carries important implications for emergency department operations. In high-volume academic centers, essential staffing decisions can be made on the assumption that residents see patients at a static rate. However, it is unclear whether this model mirrors reality; previous studies have not rigorously examined whether productivity changes over time. We examine residents' productivity across shifts to determine whether it remained consistent. This was a retrospective cohort study conducted in an urban academic hospital with a 3-year emergency medicine training program in which residents acquire patients ad libitum throughout their shift. Time stamps of all patient encounters were automatically logged. A linear mixed model was constructed to predict productivity per shift hour. A total of 14,364 8- and 9-hour shifts were worked by 75 residents between July 1, 2010, and June 20, 2015. This comprised 6,127 (42.7%) postgraduate year (PGY) 1 shifts, 7,236 (50.4%) PGY-2 shifts, and 998 (6.9%) PGY-3 nonsupervisory shifts (Table 1). Overall, residents treated a mean of 10.1 patients per shift (SD 3.2), with most patients at Emergency Severity Index level 3 or more acute (93.8%). In the initial hour, residents treated a mean of 2.14 patients (SD 1.2), and every subsequent hour was associated with a significant decrease, with the largest in the second, third, and final hours. Emergency medicine resident productivity during a single shift follows a reliable pattern that decreases significantly hourly, a pattern preserved across PGY years and types of shifts. This suggests that resident productivity is a dynamic process, which should be considered in staffing decisions and studied further. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Optimization of tobacco variety model to increase seed productivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. І. Савіна

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. To develop a tobacco variety model with optimal inflorescence traits such as size and shape that will allow to increase seed productivity of the crop. Methods. Statistical and mathematical (correlative, regressive ones. Results. Basic collection consisting of 282 variety samples registered in the National Genetics Center was evaluated, optimal parameters of inflorescence were defined that can provide a high seed yield. During statistical analysis, correlation matrix was developed with the purpose to highlight traits that correlate with inflorescence productivity. According to the results of correlation analysis, a strong relationship between the width and height of inflorescence (r = 0,773±0,038 was established. Somewhat weaker correlation was observed when modeling regressive relation between inflorescence height and width, where regression showed the medium relationship. Regression equation of these traits is as follows: y = 0,5585x + 8,4649. Inflorescence density (r = 0,646, height (r = 0,556 and width (r = 0,527 also had quite a high positive effect on seed productivity. The results of regression analysis pointed to the fact that there were a linear relationship between inflorescence size and seed productivity. Conclusions. Among 282 samples of basic tobacco collection, 29 varieties with high seed productivity was defined which can be used in the breeding process, and ‘Sobolchskyi 15/21’, ‘Ergo 23’, ‘C-11’, ‘Sygarnyi 99’ varieties were selected for large-scale implementation into the production of raw material of cigar type.

  15. Property Modelling and Databases in Product-Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul; Sansonetti, Sascha

    development, however, it is necessary to have a large database of measured property data that has been checked for consistency and accuracy. The presentation will first introduce a database, in terms of its knowledge representation structure, the type and range of properties and chemical systems covered......, and their internal consistency-accuracy checks. The database includes properties of organic chemicals, polymers and ionic liquids. There are also chemical class specific database sections, such as for solvents, aroma-chemicals, surfactants and emulsifiers. The use of this property database for model development...... of the PC-SAFT is used. The developed database and property prediction models have been combined into a properties-software that allows different product-process design related applications. The presentation will also briefly highlight applications of the software for virtual product-process design...

  16. Product State Models in Holonic shop floor control systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langer, Gilad; Sørensen, Christian; Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    This paper reviews the concepts of the product state models as an integrated database for Holonic Shop Floor Control. One of the requirements of agility is to be able to realise real-time control of manufacturing systems based on the actual state of the system and especially the state of its...... workpieces. The Product State Model (PSM) is an integrated object oriented database, which contains the dynamic data concerning the actual state of the workpieces during the manufacturing processing. It is integrated in the HoMuCS architecture by aggregating a PSM in each order holon. The paper outlines...... this as well as the general concepts of the PSM and the important parts of the HoMuCS system architecture. Finally the integration of a PSM is illustrated in a case study based on an industrial case at the Odense Steel Shipyard Ltd....

  17. Predictive Model of Energy Consumption in Beer Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiecheng Pu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The predictive model of energy consumption is presented based on subtractive clustering and Adaptive-Network-Based Fuzzy Inference System (for short ANFIS in the beer production. Using the subtractive clustering on the historical data of energy consumption, the limit of artificial experience is conquered while confirming the number of fuzzy rules. The parameters of the fuzzy inference system are acquired by the structure of adaptive network and hybrid on-line learning algorithm. The method can predict and guide the energy consumption of the factual production process. The reducing consumption scheme is provided based on the actual situation of the enterprise. Finally, using concrete examples verified the feasibility of this method comparing with the Radial Basis Functions (for short RBF neural network predictive model.

  18. A New Product Development Partnership Model for Antibiotic Resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billington, John K

    2016-05-01

    Antibiotics have prevented countless deaths from common infections and have made possible many modern medical procedures. Over the past few decades, antibiotic-resistant bacteria have become a global threat, spreading between healthcare facilities and throughout communities worldwide at an alarming pace. Antibiotic overuse and misuse in humans, animals, and the environment accelerate resistance by selecting for bacteria with antibiotic-resistant traits, which then become predominant and infect others. Meanwhile, few antibiotics remain active against the most resistant bacteria. There is an urgent need for new antibiotics and other antibacterial products to replace second-line and last resort therapies when they no longer work. This Article proposes a new U.S.-based, non-governmental, not-for-profit product development partnership (PDP) model specifically designed for antibacterial development. This new model should both supplement and complement existing government-led efforts and should be built with mechanisms in place to balance the values of innovation, access, and conservation.

  19. Modeling and Analysis of New Products Diffusion on Heterogeneous Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuping Li

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a heterogeneous networks model with the awareness stage and the decision-making stage to explain the process of new products diffusion. If mass media is neglected in the decision-making stage, there is a threshold whether the innovation diffusion is successful or not, or else it is proved that the network model has at least one positive equilibrium. For networks with the power-law degree distribution, numerical simulations confirm analytical results, and also at the same time, by numerical analysis of the influence of the network structure and persuasive advertisements on the density of adopters, we give two different products propagation strategies for two classes of nodes in scale-free networks.

  20. Bayesian non parametric modelling of Higgs pair production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scarpa Bruno

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical classification models are commonly used to separate a signal from a background. In this talk we face the problem of isolating the signal of Higgs pair production using the decay channel in which each boson decays into a pair of b-quarks. Typically in this context non parametric methods are used, such as Random Forests or different types of boosting tools. We remain in the same non-parametric framework, but we propose to face the problem following a Bayesian approach. A Dirichlet process is used as prior for the random effects in a logit model which is fitted by leveraging the Polya-Gamma data augmentation. Refinements of the model include the insertion in the simple model of P-splines to relate explanatory variables with the response and the use of Bayesian trees (BART to describe the atoms in the Dirichlet process.

  1. A Hybrid Fuzzy Model for Lean Product Development Performance Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osezua Aikhuele, Daniel; Mohd Turan, Faiz

    2016-02-01

    In the effort for manufacturing companies to meet up with the emerging consumer demands for mass customized products, many are turning to the application of lean in their product development process, and this is gradually moving from being a competitive advantage to a necessity. However, due to lack of clear understanding of the lean performance measurements, many of these companies are unable to implement and fully integrated the lean principle into their product development process. Extensive literature shows that only few studies have focus systematically on the lean product development performance (LPDP) evaluation. In order to fill this gap, the study therefore proposed a novel hybrid model based on Fuzzy Reasoning Approach (FRA), and the extension of Fuzzy-AHP and Fuzzy-TOPSIS methods for the assessment of the LPDP. Unlike the existing methods, the model considers the importance weight of each of the decision makers (Experts) since the performance criteria/attributes are required to be rated, and these experts have different level of expertise. The rating is done using a new fuzzy Likert rating scale (membership-scale) which is designed such that it can address problems resulting from information lost/distortion due to closed-form scaling and the ordinal nature of the existing Likert scale.

  2. Procurement model for copper and polymer electrical products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sremac

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Procurement model for copper and polymer electrical products. Electrical cable structure (wire, insulation, filling and mantle is in accordance with the technical specifications of individual cable components in terms of the incorporated materials. Materials used in cable manufacture are copper, aluminum, rubber and polyvinyl chloride. One of the key issues in managing the flow of goods pertains to the timing of procurement. The combination of the two concepts can take advantage of individual strengths of fuzzy logic and neural networks in hybrid systems of homogeneous structure. The model has high practical significance, as, with minor modifications, it can be applied in any enterprise responsible for managing the goods flows.

  3. Modeling the spatial structure of hog production in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larue, Solène; Abildtrup, Jens; Schmitt, Bertrand

    , the interaction between the location of hog production and slaughterhouses. It is the assumption that the location of slaughterhouses is influenced by the location of the primary producers, implying that this variable is endogenous, whereas the location of primary producers is independent of the location...... of slaughterhouses. This is due to the fact that transportation costs of pigs are paid by the cooperatives owning the slaughterhouses. This assumption is tested applying a spatial econometric model. The model is estimated for 1989, 1999 and 2004. In the latter period, it is the hypothesis that the demand for export...

  4. Mechanistic Modelling of Biodiesel Production using a Liquid Lipase Formulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Price, Jason Anthony; Hofmann, Björn; Silva, Vanessa T. L.

    2014-01-01

    , with respect to the industrial production of biodiesel. The developed kinetic model, coupled with a mass balance of the system, was fitted to and validated on experimental results for the fed-batch transesterification of rapeseed oil. The confidence intervals of the parameter estimates, along...... that constrains the amount of methanol in the reactor was computed and the predictions experimentally validated. Monte-Carlo simulations were then used to characterize the effect of the parameter uncertainty on the model outputs, giving a biodiesel yield, based on the mass of oil, of 90.8 ± 0.55 mass %. © 2014...

  5. Medium Term Hydroelectric Production Planning - A Multistage Stochastic Optimization Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BITA ANALUI

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Multistage stochastic programming is a key technology for making decisions over time in an uncertain environment. One of the promising areas in which this technology is implementable, is medium term planning of electricity production and trading where decision makers are typically faced with uncertain parameters (such as future demands and market prices that can be described by stochastic processes in discrete time. We apply this methodology to hydrosystem operation assuming random electricity prices and random inflows to the reservoir system. After describing the multistage stochastic model a simple case study is presented. In particular we use the model for pricing an electricity delivery contract in the framework of indifference pricing.

  6. Theoretical models in the development of advertising for food products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino; Stacey, Julia

    2005-01-01

    the advertisement influences the target may serve as creative inspiration and as a common frame of reference for those involved in the development of advertisements. The means-end-chain model says that an advertisement is effective by connecting the product's attributes (means) and the target's personal values...... apples. One proposal, which is based on the meansendchain model, tries to establish a connection between the vitamin and energy content of apples and the personal value: quality of life. The other one is made in the traditional fashion, ie without the use of theoreticalmodels. Its message is that apples...

  7. The Model of the Production Process for the Quality Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alot Zbigniew

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article is a result of the research on the models of the production processes for the quality management and their identification. It discusses the classical model and the indicators for evaluating the capabilities by taking as its starting point the assumption of the normal distribution of the process characteristics. The division of the process types proposed by ISO 21747:2006 standard introducing models for non-stationary processes is presented. A general process model that allows in any real case to precisely describe the statistical characteristics of the process is proposed. It gives the opportunity for more detailed description, in comparison to the model proposed by ISO 21747:2006 standard, of the process characteristics and determining its capability. This model contains the type of process, statistical distribution, and the method for determining the capability and performance (long-term capability of the process. One of the model elements is proposed, own classification and resulting set of process types. The classification follows the recommendations of ISO 21747:2006 introducing models for the non-stationary processes. However, the set of the process types allows, beyond a more precise description of the process characteristics, its usage to monitor the process.

  8. Diffractive open charm production from the dipole model analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luszczak, A.; Golec-Biernat, K.

    2009-01-01

    The most promising QCD based approach to DIS diffraction is formulated in terms of dipole models. In this analysis, we consider two important parameterizations of the dipole scattering amplitude, called GBW and CGC in which parton saturation results are built in. We present a precise comparison of the results of the dipole models using these two parameterizations with the newest data from HERA. The comparison we performed prompt us to discuss some subtle points of the dipole models, mostly related to the qqg component, and connect them to the approach based on the diffractive parton distributions evolved with the Dokshitzer-Gribov-Lipatov-Altarelli-Parisi (DGLAP) equations. Within the latter approach, the diffractive open charm production, which is the main goal of this analysis, is particularly interesting since it is sensitive to a diffractive gluon distribution. Thus, we extracted the diffractive gluon distribution from the dipole model formulae to use it for the computation of the charm contribution to F 2 D . We found good agreement with the HERA data on the diffractive open charm production both for the the gluon distributions from the considered dipole models and the DGLAP fits to HERA data from our earlier analysis for diffractive parton distributions with higher twist. (authors)

  9. A model of northern pintail productivity and population growth rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, James B.; Rockwell, Robert F.

    1998-01-01

    Our objective was to synthesize individual components of reproductive ecology into a single estimate of productivity and to assess the relative effects of survival and productivity on population dynamics. We used information on nesting ecology, renesting potential, and duckling survival of northern pintails (Anas acuta) collected on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, 1991-95, to model the number of ducklings produced under a range of nest success and duckling survival probabilities. Using average values of 25% nest success, 11% duckling survival, and 56% renesting probability from our study population, we calculated that all young in our population were produced by 13% of the breeding females, and that early-nesting females produced more young than later-nesting females. Further, we calculated, on average, that each female produced only 0.16 young females/nesting season. We combined these results with estimates of first-year and adult survival to examine the growth rate (X) of the population and the relative contributions of these demographic parameters to that growth rate. Contrary to aerial survey data, the population projection model suggests our study population is declining rapidly (X = 0.6969). The relative effects on population growth rate were 0.1175 for reproductive success, 0.1175 for first-year survival, and 0.8825 for adult survival. Adult survival had the greatest influence on X for our population, and this conclusion was robust over a range of survival and productivity estimates. Given published estimates of annual survival for adult females (61%), our model suggested nest success and duckling survival need to increase to approximately 40% to achieve population stability. We discuss reasons for the apparent discrepancy in population trends between our model and aerial surveys in terms of bias in productivity and survival estimates.

  10. Linear programming model can explain respiration of fermentation products.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Möller

    Full Text Available Many differentiated cells rely primarily on mitochondrial oxidative phosphorylation for generating energy in the form of ATP needed for cellular metabolism. In contrast most tumor cells instead rely on aerobic glycolysis leading to lactate to about the same extent as on respiration. Warburg found that cancer cells to support oxidative phosphorylation, tend to ferment glucose or other energy source into lactate even in the presence of sufficient oxygen, which is an inefficient way to generate ATP. This effect also occurs in striated muscle cells, activated lymphocytes and microglia, endothelial cells and several mammalian cell types, a phenomenon termed the "Warburg effect". The effect is paradoxical at first glance because the ATP production rate of aerobic glycolysis is much slower than that of respiration and the energy demands are better to be met by pure oxidative phosphorylation. We tackle this question by building a minimal model including three combined reactions. The new aspect in extension to earlier models is that we take into account the possible uptake and oxidation of the fermentation products. We examine the case where the cell can allocate protein on several enzymes in a varying distribution and model this by a linear programming problem in which the objective is to maximize the ATP production rate under different combinations of constraints on enzymes. Depending on the cost of reactions and limitation of the substrates, this leads to pure respiration, pure fermentation, and a mixture of respiration and fermentation. The model predicts that fermentation products are only oxidized when glucose is scarce or its uptake is severely limited.

  11. Productivity simulation model for optimization of maritime container terminals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elen TWRDY

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article describes a proposed productivity simulation model enabling container terminal operators to find optimization possibilities. A research of more than forty terminals has been done, in order to provide a helping tool for maritime container terminals. By applying an adequate simulation model, it is possible to measure and increase the productivity in all subsystem of the maritime container terminal. Management of a maritime container terminal includes a vast number of different financial and operational decisions. Financial decisions are often in a direct connection with investments in infrastructure and handling equipment. Such investments are very expensive. Therefore, they must give back the invested money as soon as possible. On the other hand, some terminals are limited by the physical extension and are forced to increase annual throughput only with sophisticated equipment on the berth side and on the yard as well. Considering all these important facts in container and shipping industry, the proposed simulation model gives a helping tool for checking the productivity and its time variation and monitoring competitiveness of a certain maritime terminal with terminals from the same group.

  12. Modeling methane emissions by cattle production systems in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelan-Ortega, O. A.; Ku Vera, J.; Molina, L. T.

    2013-12-01

    Methane emissions from livestock is one of the largest sources of methane in Mexico. The purpose of the present paper is to provide a realistic estimate of the national inventory of methane produced by the enteric fermentation of cattle, based on an integrated simulation model, and to provide estimates of CH4 produced by cattle fed typical diets from the tropical and temperate climates of Mexico. The Mexican cattle population of 23.3 million heads was divided in two groups. The first group (7.8 million heads), represents cattle of the tropical climate regions. The second group (15.5 million heads), are the cattle in the temperate climate regions. This approach allows incorporating the effect of diet on CH4 production into the analysis because the quality of forages is lower in the tropics than in temperate regions. Cattle population in every group was subdivided into two categories: cows (COW) and other type of cattle (OTHE), which included calves, heifers, steers and bulls. The daily CH4 production by each category of animal along an average production cycle of 365 days was simulated, instead of using a default emission factor as in Tier 1 approach. Daily milk yield, live weight changes associated with the lactation, and dry matter intake, were simulated for the entire production cycle. The Moe and Tyrrell (1979) model was used to simulate CH4 production for the COW category, the linear model of Mills et al. (2003) for the OTHE category in temperate regions and the Kurihara et al. (1999) model for the OTHE category in the tropical regions as it has been developed for cattle fed tropical diets. All models were integrated with a cow submodel to form an Integrated Simulation Model (ISM). The AFRC (1993) equations and the lactation curve model of Morant and Gnanasakthy (1989) were used to construct the cow submodel. The ISM simulates on a daily basis the CH4 production, milk yield, live weight changes associated with lactation and dry matter intake. The total daily CH

  13. Re-analysis of fatigue data for welded joints using the notch stress approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mikkel Melters; Mouritsen, Ole Ø.; Hansen, Michael Rygaard

    2010-01-01

    Experimental fatigue data for welded joints have been collected and subjected to re-analysis using the notch stress approach according to IIW recommendations. This leads to an overview regarding the reliability of the approach, based on a large number of results (767 specimens). Evidently, there ......-welded joints agree quite well with the FAT 225 curve; however a reduction to FAT 200 is suggested in order to achieve approximately the same safety as observed in the nominal stress approach.......Experimental fatigue data for welded joints have been collected and subjected to re-analysis using the notch stress approach according to IIW recommendations. This leads to an overview regarding the reliability of the approach, based on a large number of results (767 specimens). Evidently...

  14. Evaluation of Aqua crop Model to Predict Crop Water Productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Noor Hidayat Adenan; Faiz Ahmad; Shyful Azizi Abdul Rahman; Abdul Rahim Harun; Khairuddin Abdul Rahim

    2015-01-01

    Water and nutrient are critical inputs for crop production, especially in meeting challenges from increasing fertilizer cost and irregular water availability associated with climate change. The Land and Water Division of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has developed Aqua Crop, an integrated application software to simulate the interactions between plant, water and soil. Field management and irrigation management are the factors that need to be considered since it affects the interactions. Four critical components are needed in the Aqua Crop model, viz. climate, crop, field management and soil conditions. In our case study, climate data from rice field in Utan Aji, Kangar, Perlis was applied to run a simulation by using AquaCrop model. The rice crop was also assessed against deficit irrigation schedules and we found that use of water at optimum level increased rice yield. Results derived from the use of the model corresponded conventional assessment. This model can be adopted to help farmers in Malaysia in planning crop and field management to increase the crop productivity, especially in areas where the water is limited. (author)

  15. Evolution Model and Simulation of Profit Model of Agricultural Products Logistics Financing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bo; Wu, Yan

    2018-03-01

    Agricultural products logistics financial warehousing business mainly involves agricultural production and processing enterprises, third-party logistics enterprises and financial institutions tripartite, to enable the three parties to achieve win-win situation, the article first gives the replication dynamics and evolutionary stability strategy between the three parties in business participation, and then use NetLogo simulation platform, using the overall modeling and simulation method of Multi-Agent, established the evolutionary game simulation model, and run the model under different revenue parameters, finally, analyzed the simulation results. To achieve the agricultural products logistics financial financing warehouse business to participate in tripartite mutually beneficial win-win situation, thus promoting the smooth flow of agricultural products logistics business.

  16. Assimilation of LAI time-series in crop production models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooistra, Lammert; Rijk, Bert; Nannes, Louis

    2014-05-01

    Agriculture is worldwide a large consumer of freshwater, nutrients and land. Spatial explicit agricultural management activities (e.g., fertilization, irrigation) could significantly improve efficiency in resource use. In previous studies and operational applications, remote sensing has shown to be a powerful method for spatio-temporal monitoring of actual crop status. As a next step, yield forecasting by assimilating remote sensing based plant variables in crop production models would improve agricultural decision support both at the farm and field level. In this study we investigated the potential of remote sensing based Leaf Area Index (LAI) time-series assimilated in the crop production model LINTUL to improve yield forecasting at field level. The effect of assimilation method and amount of assimilated observations was evaluated. The LINTUL-3 crop production model was calibrated and validated for a potato crop on two experimental fields in the south of the Netherlands. A range of data sources (e.g., in-situ soil moisture and weather sensors, destructive crop measurements) was used for calibration of the model for the experimental field in 2010. LAI from cropscan field radiometer measurements and actual LAI measured with the LAI-2000 instrument were used as input for the LAI time-series. The LAI time-series were assimilated in the LINTUL model and validated for a second experimental field on which potatoes were grown in 2011. Yield in 2011 was simulated with an R2 of 0.82 when compared with field measured yield. Furthermore, we analysed the potential of assimilation of LAI into the LINTUL-3 model through the 'updating' assimilation technique. The deviation between measured and simulated yield decreased from 9371 kg/ha to 8729 kg/ha when assimilating weekly LAI measurements in the LINTUL model over the season of 2011. LINTUL-3 furthermore shows the main growth reducing factors, which are useful for farm decision support. The combination of crop models and sensor

  17. Extreme Winds from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    : the Mistral in the Gulf of Lions and the Bora in the north Adriatic Sea. It was found that the method introduced here can be applied to places where the extreme wind events are synoptic weather phenomena like in north-western Europe, but a more complicated downscaling, e.g. based on a mesoscale model...... wind. We examined extreme winds in different places where the strongest wind events are weather phenomena of different scales, including the mid-latitude lows in Denmark, channelling winds in the Gulf of Suez, typhoons in the western North Pacific, cyclones in the Caribbean Sea, local strong winds...

  18. The critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition: a statistical critique and a reanalysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Vanhove

    Full Text Available In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies-with few exceptions-use analytical (statistical tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials.

  19. The critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition: a statistical critique and a reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanhove, Jan

    2013-01-01

    In second language acquisition research, the critical period hypothesis (cph) holds that the function between learners' age and their susceptibility to second language input is non-linear. This paper revisits the indistinctness found in the literature with regard to this hypothesis's scope and predictions. Even when its scope is clearly delineated and its predictions are spelt out, however, empirical studies-with few exceptions-use analytical (statistical) tools that are irrelevant with respect to the predictions made. This paper discusses statistical fallacies common in cph research and illustrates an alternative analytical method (piecewise regression) by means of a reanalysis of two datasets from a 2010 paper purporting to have found cross-linguistic evidence in favour of the cph. This reanalysis reveals that the specific age patterns predicted by the cph are not cross-linguistically robust. Applying the principle of parsimony, it is concluded that age patterns in second language acquisition are not governed by a critical period. To conclude, this paper highlights the role of confirmation bias in the scientific enterprise and appeals to second language acquisition researchers to reanalyse their old datasets using the methods discussed in this paper. The data and R commands that were used for the reanalysis are provided as supplementary materials.

  20. Transition towards Sustainable Solutions: Product, Service, Technology, and Business Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mina Nasiri

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the horse industry can be considered as an important industry in European countries and has a major role in agricultural industry throughout the world. Although today the diversity of the horse-related companies provides new markets and business opportunities, there are also some sustainable issues which needs to be addressed. Therefore, this study contributes to this research gap by reviewing the concept of sustainability and existing approaches to find sustainable solutions for companies. These sustainable approaches can be applied to products, services and technologies as well as business models, such as the product-service-system (PSS, circular economy (CE and industrial symbiosis (IS. Although there seems to be a growing understanding of sustainable approaches and their role in sustainable development, there is a lack of research at the empirical level regarding the types of sustainability approaches (i.e., technologies, services, products and business models that evolve in specific industries. The empirical data in this research have been collected from a cross-section of Finnish horse industry operators to determine how willing companies are to exploit approaches to sustainable solutions, as well as what the existing sustainable solutions are in this industry. The response rate of this study is approximately 24 percent, including 139 received valid responses among the sample of 580 operators.