WorldWideScience

Sample records for model reanalysis products

  1. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Angélil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  2. Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angélil, Oliver; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V; Stone, Dáithí; Donat, Markus G; Wehner, Michael; Shiogama, Hideo; Ciavarella, Andrew; Christidis, Nikolaos

    2016-09-01

    A growing field of research aims to characterise the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to the likelihood of extreme weather and climate events. These analyses can be sensitive to the shapes of the tails of simulated distributions. If tails are found to be unrealistically short or long, the anthropogenic signal emerges more or less clearly, respectively, from the noise of possible weather. Here we compare the chance of daily land-surface precipitation and near-surface temperature extremes generated by three Atmospheric Global Climate Models typically used for event attribution, with distributions from six reanalysis products. The likelihoods of extremes are compared for area-averages over grid cell and regional sized spatial domains. Results suggest a bias favouring overly strong attribution estimates for hot and cold events over many regions of Africa and Australia, and a bias favouring overly weak attribution estimates over regions of North America and Asia. For rainfall, results are more sensitive to geographic location. Although the three models show similar results over many regions, they do disagree over others. Equally, results highlight the discrepancy amongst reanalyses products. This emphasises the importance of using multiple reanalysis and/or observation products, as well as multiple models in event attribution studies.

  3. Use of ARM Products in Reanalysis Applications and IPCC Model Assessment

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    Walsh, John E; Chapman, William L

    2011-09-30

    Year-3 of the project was spent developing an observed cloud climatology for Barrow, AK and relating the observed cloud fractions to the surface circulation patterns and locally observed winds. Armed with this information, we identified errors and sources of errors of cloud fraction simulations by numerical models in the Arctic. Specifically, we compared the cloud simulations output by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to corresponding observed cloud fractions obtained by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for four mid-season months: (January, April, July, and October). Reanalyses are obtained from numerical weather prediction models that are not run in real-time. Instead, a reanalysis model ingests a wide variety of historical observations for the purpose of producing a gridded dataset of many model-derived quantities that are as temporally homogeneous as possible. Therefore, reanalysis output can be used as a proxy for observations, although some biases and other errors are inevitable because of model parameterizations and observational gaps. In the observational analysis we documented the seasonality of cloudiness at the north slope including cloud base height and dependence on synoptic regime. We followed this with an evaluation of the associations of wind-speed and direction and cloud amounts in both the observational record and the reanalysis model. The Barrow cloud fraction data show that clear conditions are most often associated with anomalous high pressure to the north of Barrow, especially in spring and early summer. Overcast skies are most commonly associated with anomalous low pressure to the south. The observational analysis shows that low, boundary layer clouds are the most common type of cloud observed North Slope ARM observing site. However, these near-surface clouds are a major source of errors in the NARR simulations. When compared to observations, the NARR over-simulates the fraction of

  4. Use of ARM Products in Reanalysis Applications and IPCC Model Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, John E; Chapman, William L

    2011-09-30

    Year-3 of the project was spent developing an observed cloud climatology for Barrow, AK and relating the observed cloud fractions to the surface circulation patterns and locally observed winds. Armed with this information, we identified errors and sources of errors of cloud fraction simulations by numerical models in the Arctic. Specifically, we compared the cloud simulations output by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) to corresponding observed cloud fractions obtained by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for four mid-season months: (January, April, July, and October). Reanalyses are obtained from numerical weather prediction models that are not run in real-time. Instead, a reanalysis model ingests a wide variety of historical observations for the purpose of producing a gridded dataset of many model-derived quantities that are as temporally homogeneous as possible. Therefore, reanalysis output can be used as a proxy for observations, although some biases and other errors are inevitable because of model parameterizations and observational gaps. In the observational analysis we documented the seasonality of cloudiness at the north slope including cloud base height and dependence on synoptic regime. We followed this with an evaluation of the associations of wind-speed and direction and cloud amounts in both the observational record and the reanalysis model. The Barrow cloud fraction data show that clear conditions are most often associated with anomalous high pressure to the north of Barrow, especially in spring and early summer. Overcast skies are most commonly associated with anomalous low pressure to the south. The observational analysis shows that low, boundary layer clouds are the most common type of cloud observed North Slope ARM observing site. However, these near-surface clouds are a major source of errors in the NARR simulations. When compared to observations, the NARR over-simulates the fraction of

  5. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations versus gridded observed and regional reanalysis products using a combined weighting scheme

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    Eum, Hyung-Il; Laprise, Rene [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Gachon, Philippe [University of Quebec at Montreal, ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal, QC (Canada); Environment Canada, Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Climate Research Division, Montreal, QC (Canada); Ouarda, Taha [University of Quebec, INRS-ETE (Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau-Terre-Environnement), Quebec, QC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    This study presents a combined weighting scheme which contains five attributes that reflect accuracy of climate data, i.e. short-term (daily), mid-term (annual), and long-term (decadal) timescales, as well as spatial pattern, and extreme values, as simulated from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) with respect to observed and regional reanalysis products. Southern areas of Quebec and Ontario provinces in Canada are used for the study area. Three series of simulation from two different versions of the Canadian RCM (CRCM4.1.1, and CRCM4.2.3) are employed over 23 years from 1979 to 2001, driven by both NCEP and ERA40 global reanalysis products. One series of regional reanalysis dataset (i.e. NARR) over North America is also used as reference for comparison and validation purpose, as well as gridded historical observed daily data of precipitation and temperatures, both series have been beforehand interpolated on the CRCM 45-km grid resolution. Monthly weighting factors are calculated and then combined into four seasons to reflect seasonal variability of climate data accuracy. In addition, this study generates weight averaged references (WARs) with different weighting factors and ensemble size as new reference climate data set. The simulation results indicate that the NARR is in general superior to the CRCM simulated precipitation values, but the CRCM4.1.1 provides the highest weighting factors during the winter season. For minimum and maximum temperature, both the CRCM4.1.1 and the NARR products provide the highest weighting factors, respectively. The NARR provides more accurate short- and mid-term climate data, but the two versions of the CRCM provide more precise long-term data, spatial pattern and extreme events. Or study confirms also that the global reanalysis data (i.e. NCEP vs. ERA40) used as boundary conditions in the CRCM runs has non-negligible effects on the accuracy of CRCM simulated precipitation and temperature values. In addition, this study demonstrates

  6. A global ocean reanalysis product in the China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guijun; Fu, Hongli; Zhang, Xuefeng; Li, Wei; Wu, Xinrong; Wang, Xidong; Zhang, Lianxin

    2013-11-01

    The first version of a global ocean reanalysis over multiple decades (1979-2008) has been completed by the National Marine Data and Information Service within the China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) project. The global ocean model employed is based upon the ocean general circulation model of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A sequential data assimilation scheme within the framework of 3D variational (3DVar) analysis, called multi-grid 3DVar, is implemented in 3D space for retrieving multiple-scale observational information. Assimilated oceanic observations include sea level anomalies (SLAs) from multi-altimeters, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from remote sensing satellites, and in-situ temperature/salinity profiles. Evaluation showed that compared to the model simulation, the annual mean heat content of the global reanalysis is significantly approaching that of World Ocean Atlas 2009 (WOA09) data. The quality of the global temperature climatology was found to be comparable with the product of Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA), and the major ENSO events were reconstructed. The global and Atlantic meridional overturning circulations showed some similarity as SODA, although significant differences were found to exist. The analysis of temperature and salinity in the current version has relatively larger errors at high latitudes and improvements are ongoing in an updated version. CORA was found to provide a simulation of the subsurface current in the equatorial Pacific with a correlation coefficient beyond about 0.6 compared with the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) mooring data. The mean difference of SLAs between altimetry data and CORA was less than 0.1 m in most years.

  7. The Sensitivity of Simulated Ocean Biogeochemistry to Forcing Fields Derived from NCEP and MERRA Reanalysis Products

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    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy

    2010-01-01

    Ocean biogeochemistry models are typically forced by atmospheric and oceanic data derived from reanalysis products. For the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) such reanalysis forcing fields include: surface wind stress, sea surface temperature, ice distributions, shortwave radiation, surface wind speeds and surface atmospheric pressure. Additionally, proper computation of ocean irradiance requires reanalysis products of relative humidity and precipitable water (in addition to aerosol and cloud information which is derived from satellite data). The question posed here is, does the choice of reanalysis products make a difference in the representation of ocean biology and biogeochemistry? NOBM was forced by NCEP and MERRA reanalysis products for the period 2002-2009. We find that in 2009 global distributions and abundances of biological variables (total chlorophyll and nutrients) and carbon (dissolved inorganic and organic carbon and surface pCO2) were similar between the two different forcing fields. Global statistical comparisons with satellite and in situ data also showed negligible differences.

  8. Effects of in-situ and reanalysis climate data on estimation of cropland gross primary production using the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model

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    Jin, Cui; Xiao, Xiangming; Wagle, Pradeep; Griffis, Timothy; Dong, Jinwei; Wu, Chaoyang; Qin, Yuanwei; Cook, David R.

    2015-11-01

    Satellite-based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs) often require meteorological reanalysis data such as the North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) as model inputs to simulate Gross Primary Production (GPP) at regional and global scales. This study first evaluated the accuracies of air temperature (TNARR) and downward shortwave radiation (RNARR) of the NARR by comparing with in-situ meteorological measurements at 37 AmeriFlux non-crop eddy flux sites, then used one PEM – the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) to simulate 8-day mean GPP (GPPVPM) at seven AmeriFlux crop sites, and investigated the uncertainties in GPPVPM from climate inputs as compared with eddy covariance-based GPP (GPPEC). Results showed that TNARR agreed well with in-situ measurements; RNARR, however, was positively biased. An empirical linear correction was applied to RNARR, and significantly reduced the relative error of RNARR by ~25% for crop site-years. Overall, GPPVPM calculated from the in-situ (GPPVPM(EC)), original (GPPVPM(NARR)) and adjusted NARR (GPPVPM(adjNARR)) climate data tracked the seasonality of GPPEC well, albeit with different degrees of biases. GPPVPM(EC) showed a good match with GPPEC for maize (Zea mays L.), but was slightly underestimated for soybean (Glycine max L.). Replacing the in-situ climate data with the NARR resulted in a significant overestimation of GPPVPM(NARR) (18.4/29.6% for irrigated/rainfed maize and 12.7/12.5% for irrigated/rainfed soybean). GPPVPM(adjNARR) showed a good agreement with GPPVPM(EC) for both crops due to the reduction in the bias of RNARR. The results imply that the bias of RNARR introduced significant uncertainties into the PEM-based GPP estimates, suggesting that more accurate surface radiation datasets are needed to estimate primary production of terrestrial ecosystems at regional and global scales.

  9. Comparison of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation between 1960 and 2007 in six ocean reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karspeck, A. R.; Stammer, D.; Köhl, A.; Danabasoglu, G.; Balmaseda, M.; Smith, D. M.; Fujii, Y.; Zhang, S.; Giese, B.; Tsujino, H.; Rosati, A.

    2017-08-01

    The mean and variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), as represented in six ocean reanalysis products, are analyzed over the period 1960-2007. Particular focus is on multi-decadal trends and interannual variability at 26.5°N and 45°N. For four of the six reanalysis products, corresponding reference simulations obtained from the same models and forcing datasets but without the imposition of subsurface data constraints are included for comparison. An emphasis is placed on identifying general characteristics of the reanalysis representation of AMOC relative to their reference simulations without subsurface data constraints. The AMOC as simulated in these two sets are presented in the context of results from the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments phase II (CORE-II) effort, wherein a common interannually varying atmospheric forcing data set was used to force a large and diverse set of global ocean-ice models. Relative to the reference simulations and CORE-II forced model simulations it is shown that (1) the reanalysis products tend to have greater AMOC mean strength and enhanced variance and (2) the reanalysis products are less consistent in their year-to-year AMOC changes. We also find that relative to the reference simulations (but not the CORE-II forced model simulations) the reanalysis products tend to have enhanced multi-decadal trends (from 1975-1995 to 1995-2007) in the mid to high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.

  10. Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2015-01-01

    Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

  11. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological reanalysis product

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    Wanders, Niko; Bierkens, Marc; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; van Beek, Rens

    2014-05-01

    fields with consideration of local topographic and orographic effects. Results show that the model parameters can be successfully calibrated, while corrections to the forcing precipitation fields are substantial. Topography has the largest impact on the corrected precipitation and globally the precipitation is reduced by 3%. The calibrated model output is compared to the reference run of PCR-GLOBWB before calibration showing significant improvement in simulation of the global terrestrial water cycle. The RMSE is reduced by 10% on average, leading to improved discharge simulations, especially under base flow situations. The main outcome of this work is a 1960-2010 global reanalysis dataset that includes extensive daily hydrological components, such as precipitation, evaporation and transpiration, snow, soil moisture, groundwater storage and discharge. This reanalysis product may be used for understanding land surface memory processes, initializing regional studies and operational forecasts, as well as evaluating and improving our understanding of spatio-temporal variation of meteorological and hydrological processes. Moreover, The PCR-GLOBWB data assimilation framework developed in this work can also be extended by including more observational data, including remotely sensed data reflecting the distribution of energy and water (e.g., heat fluxes and soil moisture storage).

  12. Assessment of the structure and variability of Weddell Sea water masses in distinct ocean reanalysis products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Dotto

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We assessed and evaluated the performance of five ocean reanalysis in reproducing essential hydrographic properties and their associated temporal variability for the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The products used in this assessment were ECMWF ORAS4, CFSR, MyOcean UR025.4, ECCO2 and SODA. The present study focuses on the Weddell Sea deep layer, which is composed of the following three main water masses: Warm Deep Water (WDW, Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW and Weddell Sea Bottom Water (WSBW. Moreover, all the ocean reanalysis products analyzed showed limited capabilities in representing the surface water masses in the Weddell Sea. The MyOcean UR025.4 product provided the most accurate representation of the structure of the Weddell Sea water masses when compared to observations. The CFSR and ECCO2 products were not able to represent the WSBW throughout the simulation period. The expected WDW warming was only reproduced by the SODA product, while the ECCO2 product was able to represent the WSDW's hydrographic properties trends. All of these ocean reanalysis systems were able to represent the decrease in the WSBW's density. Our results also showed that a simple increase in horizontal resolution does not necessarily imply better representation of the deep layers. Rather, it is needed to observe the physics involved in each model and their parameterizations because the Southern Ocean suffers from the lack of in situ data, and it is biased by summer observations. The choice of the reanalysis product should be made carefully, taking into account the performance, the parameters of interest, and the type of physical processes to be evaluated.

  13. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (Reanalysis-2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) reanalysis is a follow-on project to the "50-year" (1948-present) NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis Project....

  14. Use of MODIS Sensor Images Combined with Reanalysis Products to Retrieve Net Radiation in Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Gabriel; Brunsell, Nathaniel A; Moraes, Elisabete C; Bertani, Gabriel; Dos Santos, Thiago V; Shimabukuro, Yosio E; Aragão, Luiz E O C

    2016-06-24

    In the Amazon region, the estimation of radiation fluxes through remote sensing techniques is hindered by the lack of ground measurements required as input in the models, as well as the difficulty to obtain cloud-free images. Here, we assess an approach to estimate net radiation (Rn) and its components under all-sky conditions for the Amazon region through the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) model utilizing only remote sensing and reanalysis data. The study period comprised six years, between January 2001-December 2006, and images from MODIS sensor aboard the Terra satellite and GLDAS reanalysis products were utilized. The estimates were evaluated with flux tower measurements within the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) project. Comparison between estimates obtained by the proposed method and observations from LBA towers showed errors between 12.5% and 16.4% and 11.3% and 15.9% for instantaneous and daily Rn, respectively. Our approach was adequate to minimize the problem related to strong cloudiness over the region and allowed to map consistently the spatial distribution of net radiation components in Amazonia. We conclude that the integration of reanalysis products and satellite data, eliminating the need for surface measurements as input model, was a useful proposition for the spatialization of the radiation fluxes in the Amazon region, which may serve as input information needed by algorithms that aim to determine evapotranspiration, the most important component of the Amazon hydrological balance.

  15. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  16. Uncertainty in the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks associated with ENSO in the reanalysis products

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Arun; Hu, Zeng-Zhen [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2012-08-15

    The evolution of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low-level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST. An analysis of these feedbacks requires physically consistent observational data sets. Availability of various reanalysis data sets produced during the last 15 years provides such an opportunity. A consolidated estimate of ocean surface fluxes based on multiple reanalyses also helps understand biases in ENSO predictions and simulations from climate models. In this paper, the intensity and the spatial structure of ocean-atmosphere feedback terms (precipitation, surface wind stress, and ocean surface heat flux) associated with ENSO are evaluated for six different reanalysis products. The analysis provides an estimate for the feedback terms that could be used for model validation studies. The analysis includes the robustness of the estimate across different reanalyses. Results show that one of the ''coupled'' reanalysis among the six investigated is closer to the ensemble mean of the results, suggesting that the coupled data assimilation may have the potential to better capture the overall atmosphere-ocean feedback processes associated with ENSO than the uncoupled ones. (orig.)

  17. Sensitivity of a numerical wave model on wind re-analysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavidas, George; Venugopal, Vengatesan; Friedrich, Daniel

    2017-03-01

    Wind is the dominant process for wave generation. Detailed evaluation of metocean conditions strengthens our understanding of issues concerning potential offshore applications. However, the scarcity of buoys and high cost of monitoring systems pose a barrier to properly defining offshore conditions. Through use of numerical wave models, metocean conditions can be hindcasted and forecasted providing reliable characterisations. This study reports the sensitivity of wind inputs on a numerical wave model for the Scottish region. Two re-analysis wind datasets with different spatio-temporal characteristics are used, the ERA-Interim Re-Analysis and the CFSR-NCEP Re-Analysis dataset. Different wind products alter results, affecting the accuracy obtained. The scope of this study is to assess different available wind databases and provide information concerning the most appropriate wind dataset for the specific region, based on temporal, spatial and geographic terms for wave modelling and offshore applications. Both wind input datasets delivered results from the numerical wave model with good correlation. Wave results by the 1-h dataset have higher peaks and lower biases, in expense of a high scatter index. On the other hand, the 6-h dataset has lower scatter but higher biases. The study shows how wind dataset affects the numerical wave modelling performance, and that depending on location and study needs, different wind inputs should be considered.

  18. Disagreements between Moisture Distribution in (Re)Analysis Products associated with Surges of the West African Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Alex; Knippertz, Peter; Marsham, John

    2014-05-01

    Reanalysis and operational analysis products are routinely used as the best estimates of the atmospheric state for climatological studies, to initialise operational forecasts or simulations for research, or to drive chemistry transport models. Differences between the models employed, assimilation methods and assimilated datasets can lead to substantial differences between (re)analysis products. Here we analyse such differences in the distribution of low-level water vapour to estimate the zonal mean position of the leading edge of the West African Monsoon (the Intertropical Discontinuity, ITDΦ). We do this for 11 monsoon seasons (April-September, 2000-2010) in 7 (re)analysis products: (1) NCEP-NCAR, (2) NCEP-DOE, (3) MERRA, (4) CFSR, (5) ERA-Interim, (6) GFS operational analysis and (7) ECMWF operational analysis. Long-term biases and inter-annual and seasonal patterns of disagreement between the different (re)analysis products are identified, together with particular periods with extreme disagreement . Composites of the extreme disagreement events show that they coincide with northward excursions of the ITDΦ and the production of rainfall in the Sahel and Sahara. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 V7 rainfall retrievals are used to illustrate the presence of precipitating clouds north of the ITDΦ one to four days before peak disagreement. TRMM retrievals are compared with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the products which produce the greatest and smallest range of movement of ITDΦ. The product with the greatest range which also stays north longest compares well with TRMM and has a much greater coverage of cold cloud compared to the product which produces the smallest and shortest lived northward surge. The largest disagreement occurs during the retreat of the ITDΦ. The sparse nature of observations over much of West Africa mean that the ITD in (re)analysis products is poorly constrained, particularly if ITDΦ is far north. Therefore, it is

  19. SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, M.; Long, C. S.

    2014-12-01

    The middle atmosphere and climate community use reanalyses widely to understand atmospheric processes and variability in the middle atmosphere, to validate climate models, and, potentially, for trend analysis. Yet different reanalyses give different results for the same diagnostic. There is thus a need for a coordinated reanalysis intercomparison project that shall start a comprehensive activity to compare all appropriate reanalysis data sets for key diagnostics to help understand the causes of differences and to use the results to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies. In addition, the reanalysis community will benefit from coordinated user feedback, which can lead to improvements in the next generation of reanalysis products. The Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a SPARC activity that was proposed in 2012 and approved in 2014. The goals of S-RIP are: (1) to create a communication platform between the SPARC community and the reanalysis centers; (2) to understand current reanalysis products and to contribute to future reanalysis improvements in the middle atmosphere region; and (3) to write up the results of the reanalysis intercomparison in peer reviewed papers and a SPARC report. The project duration is from 2013 to 2018. In the presentation, an overview of the project is made and some early intercomparison results are discussed.

  20. Depiction of global drought by reanalysis and real-time satellite precipitation products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric; Zhan, Wang

    2017-04-01

    Reanalysis precipitation is routinely used as a surrogate of observations due to its high spatial and temporal resolution and global coverage, and thus widely used in hydrologic and agricultural applications. The resultant product is largely dependent on the accuracy of reanalysis precipitation datasets. With advances in satellite remote sensing technology, the latest generation of reanalysis systems starts to include real time satellite precipitation estimates as inputs to their assimilation system. In this presentation, reanalysis precipitations datasets and real-time satellite rainfall products are used for the depiction of global drought events by comparing them against an observational reference dataset, namely the Princeton Global Forcing (PGF) dataset, during the period of March 2000 to December 2012. The selected reanalyses are the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ERA-Interim, and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 1 (MERRA) and 2 (MERRA-2). Three real-time satellite precipitation estimates; namely the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing algorithm (CMORPH) and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) are included in the study. Our results show that all datasets depict Sub-Saharan African drought events with limited skill, as opposed to mid latitude regions. Reanalyses and satellite real-time precipitation datasets have comparative skill in the low latitudes. Specific drought events are analyzed that demonstrate the drought depiction from the various datasets. In North America, Asia and Europe, drought events are better replicated and inter-dataset variability is significantly smaller. Overall, temporal characteristics of identified drought events are better estimated than their spatial extent.

  1. Evaluation of four global reanalysis products using in situ observations in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, R. W.; Renfrew, I. A.; Orr, A.; Webber, B. G. M.; Holland, D. M.; Lazzara, M. A.

    2016-06-01

    The glaciers within the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), West Antarctica, are amongst the most rapidly retreating in Antarctica. Meteorological reanalysis products are widely used to help understand and simulate the processes causing this retreat. Here we provide an evaluation against observations of four of the latest global reanalysis products within the ASE region—the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-I), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The observations comprise data from four automatic weather stations (AWSs), three research vessel cruises, and a new set of 38 radiosondes all within the period 2009-2014. All four reanalyses produce 2 m temperature fields that are colder than AWS observations, with the biases varying from approximately -1.8°C (ERA-I) to -6.8°C (MERRA). Over the Amundsen Sea, spatially averaged summertime biases are between -0.4°C (JRA-55) and -2.1°C (MERRA) with notably larger cold biases close to the continent (up to -6°C) in all reanalyses. All four reanalyses underestimate near-surface wind speed at high wind speeds (>15 m s-1) and exhibit dry biases and relatively large root-mean-square errors (RMSE) in specific humidity. A comparison to the radiosonde soundings shows that the cold, dry bias at the surface extends into the lower troposphere; here ERA-I and CFSR reanalyses provide the most accurate profiles. The reanalyses generally contain larger temperature and humidity biases, (and RMSE) when a temperature inversion is observed, and contain larger wind speed biases (~2 to 3 m s-1), when a low-level jet is observed.

  2. Stratospheric age-of-air trends: Reanalysis v. climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monge-Sanz, Beatriz; Dee, Dick; Hersbach, Hans; Simmons, Adrian; Parodi, Jose A.; Haenel, Florian; Stiller, Gabriele; Chipperfield, Martyn; Feng, Wuhu

    2017-04-01

    Knowing how the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) has evolved in the recent past and will continue to evolve is crucial for atmospheric composition in the UTLS and stratosphere, as well as for feedbacks with climate. Most climate models have predicted an intensification of the stratospheric circulation with the increase in greenhouse gases concentrations, which translates into younger age-of-air (AoA) values modelled in the stratosphere. Nevertheless, balloon and satellite observations do not agree with the widespread modelled trend towards younger age-of-air for the recent past (Engel et al., 2009; Stiller et al., 2012; Haenel et al. 2015). Furthermore, a few recent studies with chemistry transport models (CTMs) driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (Dee et al., 2011) have also shown agreement with the observed trends and not with those from climate models (e.g. Monge-Sanz et al., 2012; Diallo et al., 2012; Ploeger et al., 2015). To increase our confidence in climate-chemistry projections, the causes for the apparent disagreement in trends of age-of-air between observations and most climate models need to be identified. In this study we have carried out simulations with a CTM to assess the stratospheric circulation with the ERA-Interim dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), as well as with data produced from an equivalent climate system. AoA trends from our model results with ERA-Interim fields are in good agreement with the recent age-of-air studies based on observations and differ from the results we obtain with the corresponding climate data. We will show that biases in the mean AoA values are also different for these datasets compared to observations. In addition we have used recent experimental datasets from the ECMWF system to identify potential causes for the differences in AoA distribution and trends. The validation of our model results has been performed against the new revised AoA dataset based on MIPAS SF6

  3. Reanalysis of Water, Land Use, and Production Data for Assessing China's Agricultural Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T.; Pan, J.; McLaughlin, D.

    2016-12-01

    Quantitative data about water availability, crop evapotranspiration (ET), agricultural land use, and production are needed at high temporal and spatial resolutions to develop sustainable water and agricultural plan and policies. However, large-scale high-resolution measured data can be susceptible to errors, physically inconsistent, or incomplete. Reanalysis provides a way to develop improved physically consistent estimates of both measured and hidden variables. The reanalysis approach described here uses a least-squares technique constrained by water balances and crop water requirements to assimilate many possibly redundant data sources to yield estimates of water, land use, and food production variables that are physically consistent while minimizing differences from measured data. As an example, this methodology is applied in China, where food demand is expected to increase but land and water resources could constrain further increases in food production. Hydrologic fluxes, crop ET, agricultural land use, yields, and food production are characterized at 0.5o by 0.5o resolution for a nominal year around the year 2000 for 22 different crop groups. The reanalysis approach provides useful information for resource management and policy, both in China and around the world.

  4. Evaluation of Atmospheric Precipitable Water from Reanalysis Products Using Homogenized Radiosonde Observations over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Wang, J.; Dai, A.

    2015-12-01

    Many multi-decadal atmospheric reanalysis products are avialable now, but their consistencies and reliability are far from perfect. In this study, atmospheric precipitable water (PW) from the NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE, MERRA, JRA-55, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, ERA-40, CFSR and 20CR reanalyses is evaluated against homogenized radiosonde observations over China during 1979-2012 (1979-2001 for ERA-40). Results suggest that the PW biases in the reanalyses are within ˜20% for most of northern and eastern China, but the reanalyses underestimate the observed PW by 20%-40% over western China, and by ˜60% over the southwestern Tibetan Plateau. The newer-generation reanalyses (e.g., JRA25, JRA55, CFSR and ERA-Interim) have smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) than the older-generation ones (NCEP/NCAR, NCEP/DOE and ERA-40). Most of the reanalyses reproduce well the observed PW climatology and interannual variations over China. However, few reanalyses capture the observed long-term PW changes, primarily because they show spurious wet biases before about 2002. This deficiency results mainly from the discontinuities contained in reanalysis RH fields in the mid-lower troposphere due to the wet bias in older radiosonde records that are assimilated into the reanalyses. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed two leading modes that represent the long-term PW changes and ENSO-related interannual variations with robust spatial patterns. The reanalysis products, especially the MERRA and JRA-25, roughly capture these EOF modes, which account for over 50% of the total variance. The results show that even during the post-1979 satellite era, discontinuities in radiosonde data can still induce large spurious long-term changes in reanalysis PW and other related fields. Thus, more efforts are needed to remove spurious changes in input data for future long-term reanlayses.

  5. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diouf, Ibrahima; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belen; Deme, Abdoulaye; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P; Cisse, Moustapha; Sy, Ibrahima; Dia, Ibrahima; Ermert, Volker; Ndione, Jacques-André; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

    2017-09-25

    The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM), driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal) and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be considered as a

  6. Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bedia

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed.

    In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity.

    As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still

  7. Comparison and evaluation of satellite- and reanalysis-based precipitation products for water resources management in the Brahmaputra River basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Khan, Abu; Sohel Masud, Md.; Abdulla Hel Kafi, Md.; Sultana, Tashrifa; Lopez Lopez, Patricia

    2017-04-01

    The Brahmaputra River, with a transboundary basin area of approx. 554,500 km2, has its origin on the northern slope of the Himalayas in China, from where it flows through India, Bhutan and finally Bangladesh. Brahmaputra basin's climatology is heavily conditioned by precipitation during the monsoon months, concentrating about the 85 % of the rainfall in this period and originating severe and frequent floods that impact specially the Bangladeshi population in the delta region. Recent campaigns to increase the quality and to share ground-based hydro-meteorological data, in particular precipitation, within the basin have provided limited results. Global rainfall data from satellite and reanalysis may improve the temporal and spatial availability of in-situ observations for advanced water resources management. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of several global precipitation products from satellite and reanalysis in comparison with in-situ data to quantify their added value for hydrological modeling at a basin and sub-basin scale for the Brahmaputra River. Precipitation products from CMORPH, TRMM-3B42, GsMAP, WFDEI, MSWEP and various combinations with ground-based data were evaluated at basin and sub-basin level at a daily and monthly temporal resolution. The Brahmaputra was delineated into 54 sub-basins for a more detailed evaluation of the precipitation products. The data were analysed and inter-compared for the time period from 2002 to 2010. Precipitation performance assessment was conducted including several indicators, such as probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), bias and root mean square error (RMSE). Preliminary results indicate high correlation and low bias and RMSE values between WFDEI, TRMM-3B42 and CMORPH precipitation and in-situ observations at a monthly time scale. Lower correlations and higher bias and RMSE values were found between GsMAP and MSWEP and ground-observed precipitation

  8. Comparison of Malaria Simulations Driven by Meteorological Observations and Reanalysis Products in Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahima Diouf

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The analysis of the spatial and temporal variability of climate parameters is crucial to study the impact of climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The use of malaria models is an alternative way of producing potential malaria historical data for Senegal due to the lack of reliable observations for malaria outbreaks over a long time period. Consequently, here we use the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM, driven by different climatic datasets, in order to study and validate simulated malaria parameters over Senegal. The findings confirm that the risk of malaria transmission is mainly linked to climate variables such as rainfall and temperature as well as specific landscape characteristics. For the whole of Senegal, a lag of two months is generally observed between the peak of rainfall in August and the maximum number of reported malaria cases in October. The malaria transmission season usually takes place from September to November, corresponding to the second peak of temperature occurring in October. Observed malaria data from the Programme National de Lutte contre le Paludisme (PNLP, National Malaria control Programme in Senegal and outputs from the meteorological data used in this study were compared. The malaria model outputs present some consistencies with observed malaria dynamics over Senegal, and further allow the exploration of simulations performed with reanalysis data sets over a longer time period. The simulated malaria risk significantly decreased during the 1970s and 1980s over Senegal. This result is consistent with the observed decrease of malaria vectors and malaria cases reported by field entomologists and clinicians in the literature. The main differences between model outputs and observations regard amplitude, but can be related not only to reanalysis deficiencies but also to other environmental and socio-economic factors that are not included in this mechanistic malaria model framework. The present study can be

  9. Comparison of precipitable water over Ghana using GPS signals and reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acheampong, A. A.; Fosu, C.; Amekudzi, L. K.; Kaas, E.

    2015-11-01

    Signals from Global Navigational Satellite Systems (GNSS) when integrated with surface meteorological parameters can be used to sense atmospheric water vapour. Using gLAB software and employing precise point positioning techniques, zenith troposphere delays (ZTD) for a GPS base station at KNUST, Kumasi have been computed and used to retrieve Precipitable Water (PW). The PW values obtained were compared with products from ERA-Interim and NCEP reanalysis data. The correlation coefficients, r, determined from these comparisons were 0.839 and 0.729 for ERA-interim and NCEP respectively. This study has demonstrated that water vapour can be retrieved with high precision from GNSS signal. Furthermore, a location map have been produced to serve as a guide in adopting and installing GNSS base stations in Ghana to achieve a country wide coverage of GNSS based water vapour monitoring.

  10. Intercomparison of atmospheric reanalysis data in the Arctic region: To derive site-specific forcing data for terrestrial models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, J.; Saito, K.; Machiya, H.; Yabuki, H.; Ikawa, H.; Ohta, T.; Iijima, Y.; Kotani, A.; Suzuki, R.; Miyazaki, S.; Sato, A.; Hajima, T.; Sueyoshi, T.

    2015-12-01

    An intercomparison project for the Arctic terrestrial (physical and ecosystem) models, GTMIP, is conducted, targeting at improvements in the existing terrestrial schemes, as an activity of the Terrestrial Ecosystem research group in the Arctic of Japan GRENE Arctic Climate Change Research Project (GRENE-TEA). For site simulations for four GRENE-TEA sites (i.e., Fairbanks/AK, Kevo/Finland, Tiksi and Yakutsk/Siberia), we needed to prepare continuous, site-fit forcing data ready to drive the models. Due to scarcity of site observations in the region, however, it was difficult to make such data directly from the observations. Therefore, we decided to create a backbone dataset (Level 0 or Lv0) first by utilizing the reanalysis data to derive the site-specific data (Level 1 or Lv1). For selection of the best dataset for our purpose, we compared four atmospheric reanalysis datasets, i.e., ERA Interim, JRA-55, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, and NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2, in terms of the climatic reproducibility (w.r.t. temperature at 2 m and precipitation) in the region north of 60°N. CRU for temperature and GPCP for precipitation were also used for monthly-mean ground-level climate. As we will show ERA-Interim showed the smallest bias for both the parameters in terms of RMSE. Especially, air temperature in the cold period was reproduced better in ERA-Interim than is in JRA-55 or other reanalysis products. Therefore, we created Lv0 from ERA-Interim. Comparison between the site observations and Lv0 showed good agreement except for wind speed at all sites and air temperature at Tiksi, a coastal site in the eastern Siberia. Air temperature of ERA-Interim showed significantly continental characteristics while the site observation more coastal. The 34-year-long, hourly, site-fit continuous data (Lv1) for each of the GRENE-TEA sites was then created from the Lv0 values at the grid point closest to the site, by merging with the observations.

  11. A NASA Climate Model Data Services (CDS) End-to-End System to Support Reanalysis Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Maxwell, T. P.; Huffer, E.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major Reanalysis projects, currently, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, and JMA JRA25. Components of the system include the full spectrum of Climate Model Data Services; Data, Compute Services, Data Services, Analytic Services and Knowledge Services. The Data includes standard Reanalysis model output, and will be expanded to include gridded observations, and gridded Innovations (O-A and O-F). The NCCS High Performance Science Cloud provides the compute environment (storage, servers, and network). Data Services are provided through an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node complete with Live Access Server (LAS), Web Map Service (WMS) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) for visualization, as well as a collaborative interface through the Earth System CoG. Analytic Services include UV-CDAT for analysis and MERRA/AS, accessed via the CDS API, for computation services, both part of the CDS Climate Analytics as a Service (CAaaS). Knowledge Services include access to an Ontology browser, ODISEES, for metadata search and data retrieval. The result is a system that provides the ability for both reanalysis scientists and those scientists in need of reanalysis output to identify the data of interest, compare, compute, visualize, and research without the need for transferring large volumes of data, performing time consuming format conversions, and writing code for frequently run computations and visualizations.

  12. Multiyear monitoring of soil moisture over Iran through satellite and reanalysis soil moisture products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmani, Abdolaziz; Golian, Saeed; Brocca, Luca

    2016-06-01

    Soil moisture (SM) plays a fundamental role for many hydrological applications including water resources, drought analysis, agriculture, and climate variability and extremes. SM is not measured in most parts of Iran and limited measurements do not meet sufficient temporal and spatial resolution. Hence, due to ease of operation, their global coverage and demonstrated accuracy, use of remote sensing SM products is almost the only way for deriving SM information in Iran. In the present research, surface SM (SSM) datasets at six subregions of Iran with different climate conditions were extracted from two satellite-based passive (SMOSL3) and active + passive (ESA CCI SM) microwave observations, and two reanalysis (ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land) products. Time series of averaged monthly mean SSM products and in situ ground precipitation and temperature measurements were derived for each subregion. Results revealed that, generally, all SSM products were in good agreement with each other with correlation coefficients higher than 0.5. The better agreement was found in the Northeast and Southwest region with average correlation values equal to 0.88 and 0.91, respectively. It should be noted that the SSM datasets are characterized by different periods and lengths. Hence, results should be assessed with cautious. Moreover, most SSM products have strong correlations with maximum, minimum and average temperature as well as with total monthly precipitation. Also, trend analysis showed no trend for time series of monthly SSM over all subregions in the two periods 1980-1999 and 2000-2014. The only exceptions were the Southeast subregion for ERA-Interim and Center and Northwest subregions for the ESA CCI SM for which a negative trend was detected for the period 2000-2014. Finally, the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI) calculated from ERA-Interim, ERA-I/Land and ESA CCI SM datasets showed that the Center and Southeast regions suffered from the most severe and longest

  13. Modeling of ground temperatures in South Shetlands (Antarctic Peninsula): Forcing a land surface model with the reanalysis ERA-Interim

    Science.gov (United States)

    João Rocha, Maria; Dutra, Emanuel; Vieira, Gonçalo; Miranda, Pedro; Ramos, Miguel

    2010-05-01

    This study focus on Livingston Island (South Shetlands Antarctic Peninsula), one of the Earth's regions where warming has been more significant in the last 50 years. Our work is integrated in a project focusing on studying the influence of climate change on permafrost temperatures, which includes systematic and long-term terrain monitoring and also modeling using land surface models. A contribution will be the evaluation of the possibilities for using land surface modeling approaches to areas of the Antarctic Peninsula with lack of data on observational meteorological forcing data, as well as on permafrost temperatures. The climate variability of the Antarctic Peninsula region was studied using the new reanalysis product from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Era-Interim and observational data from boreholes run by our group. Monthly and annual cycles of near surface climate variables are compared. The modeling approach includes the HTESSEL (Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme for Surface Exchanges over Land) forced with ERA-Interim for modeling ground temperatures in the study region. The simulation results of run of HTESSEL are compared against soil temperature observations. The results show a favorable match between simulated and observed soil temperatures. The use of different forcing parameters is compared and the model vs. observation results from different results is analyzed. The main variable needing further improvement in the modeling is snow cover. The developed methodology provides a good tool for the analysis of the influence of climate variability on permafrost of the Maritime Antarctic.

  14. Evaluating global reanalysis datasets for provision of boundary conditions in regional climate modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

    2016-11-01

    Regional climate modelling studies often begin by downscaling a reanalysis dataset in order to simulate the observed climate, allowing the investigation of regional climate processes and quantification of the errors associated with the regional model. To date choice of reanalysis to perform such downscaling has been made based either on convenience or on performance of the reanalyses within the regional domain for relevant variables such as near-surface air temperature and precipitation. However, the only information passed from the reanalysis to the regional model are the atmospheric temperature, moisture and winds at the location of the boundaries of the regional domain. Here we present a methodology to evaluate reanalyses derived lateral boundary conditions for an example domain over southern Africa using satellite data. This study focusses on atmospheric temperature and moisture which are easily available. Five commonly used global reanalyses (NCEP1, NCEP2, ERA-I, 20CRv2, and MERRA) are evaluated against the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite temperature and relative humidity over boundaries of two domains centred on southern Africa for the years 2003-2012 inclusive. The study reveals that MERRA is the most suitable for climate mean with NCEP1 the next most suitable. For climate variability, ERA-I is the best followed by MERRA. Overall, MERRA is preferred for generating lateral boundary conditions for this domain, followed by ERA-I. While a "better" LBC specification is not the sole precursor to an improved downscaling outcome, any reduction in uncertainty associated with the specification of LBCs is a step in the right direction.

  15. Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2016-07-01

    The changes of atmospheric flow patterns related to Arctic Amplification have impacts well beyond the Arctic regional weather and climate system. Here we examine modulations of vertically propagating planetary waves, a major feature of the climate response to Arctic sea ice reduction by comparing the corresponding results of an atmospheric general circulation model with reanalysis data for periods of high and low sea ice conditions. Under low sea ice condition we find enhanced coupling between troposphere and stratosphere starting in November with preferred polar stratospheric vortex breakdowns in February, which then feeds back to the troposphere. The model experiment and ERA-Interim reanalysis data agree well with respect to temporal and spatial characteristics associated with vertical planetary wave propagation including its precursors. The upward propagating planetary wave anomalies resemble a wave number 1 and 2 pattern depending on region and timing. Since our experimental design only allows influences from sea ice changes and there is a high degree of resemblance between model results and observations, we conclude that sea ice is a main driver of observed winter circulation changes.

  16. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  17. Enhancing Global Land Surface Hydrology Estimates from the NASA MERRA Reanalysis Using Precipitation Observations and Model Parameter Adjustments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichle, Rolf; Koster, Randal; DeLannoy, Gabrielle; Forman, Barton; Liu, Qing; Mahanama, Sarith; Toure, Ally

    2011-01-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) is a state-of-the-art reanalysis that provides. in addition to atmospheric fields. global estimates of soil moisture, latent heat flux. snow. and runoff for J 979-present. This study introduces a supplemental and improved set of land surface hydrological fields ('MERRA-Land') generated by replaying a revised version of the land component of the MERRA system. Specifically. the MERRA-Land estimates benefit from corrections to the precipitation forcing with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad product (version 2.1) and from revised parameters in the rainfall interception model, changes that effectively correct for known limitations in the MERRA land surface meteorological forcings. The skill (defined as the correlation coefficient of the anomaly time series) in land surface hydrological fields from MERRA and MERRA-Land is assessed here against observations and compared to the skill of the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis. MERRA-Land and ERA-Interim root zone soil moisture skills (against in situ observations at 85 US stations) are comparable and significantly greater than that of MERRA. Throughout the northern hemisphere, MERRA and MERRA-Land agree reasonably well with in situ snow depth measurements (from 583 stations) and with snow water equivalent from an independent analysis. Runoff skill (against naturalized stream flow observations from 15 basins in the western US) of MERRA and MERRA-Land is typically higher than that of ERA-Interim. With a few exceptions. the MERRA-Land data appear more accurate than the original MERRA estimates and are thus recommended for those interested in using '\\-tERRA output for land surface hydrological studies.

  18. Similarity and difference of global reanalysis datasets (WFD and APHRODITE) in driving lumped and distributed hydrological models in a humid region of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hongliang; Xu, Chong-Yu; Chen, Sidian; Chen, Hua

    2016-11-01

    Different conclusions have been drawn in literature as using reanalysis rainfall products to drive hydrological models for the simulation of streamflow, which warrant a need of further investigation before a generalised conclusion can be drawn. This paper assesses the utility of two widely used reanalysis rainfall datasets (WFD (developed by the WATCH project) and APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of the water resources)) against the gauged rainfall in terms of flood simulation in lumped (Xinanjiang Model) and distributed (SWAT Model) hydrological models in a tributary basin of Yangtze River with 94,660 km2 drainage area in humid region of southern China. Differences in terms of rainfall accumulation, number of rainy days, spatial patterns of the rainfall amount and frequency distribution of the rain rates are evaluated. The APHRODITE product shows high consistency with the gauged rainfall while WFD data gives large errors in various statistical indices in the study region. Simulated discharges from the gauged and reanalysis rainfall data, respectively, are analysed and compared with the observed discharge in basin outlet over the period 1991-2005. The APHRODITE data show relatively high ability in modelling hydrological responses while the WFD data based models give large error in simulating the discharge. For the assessment of the high flows, both datasets exhibit some skills in flood prediction, however, APHRODITE data perform better than the WFD data when forcing into the lumped Xinanjiang Model than into the distributed SWAT Model in terms of flood duration, Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate, regressions of annual peaks and partial duration series.

  19. Quantifying the Land-Atmosphere Coupling Behavior in Modern Reanalysis Products over the U.S. Southern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, J. A.; Roundy, J. K.; Dirmeyer, P.

    2014-12-01

    The coupling of the land with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) on diurnal timescales is critical to regulating the strength of the connection between soil moisture and precipitation. To improve our understanding of land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions, recent studies have focused on the development of diagnostics to quantify the strength and accuracy of the land-PBL coupling at the process-level. In this paper, we apply a suite of local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) metrics to modern reanalysis (RA) products and observations during a 17-year period over the U. S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, a range of diagnostics exploring the links between soil moisture, evaporation, PBL height, temperature, humidity, and precipitation are applied to the summertime monthly mean diurnal cycles of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). Results show that CFSR is the driest and MERRA the wettest of the three RAs in terms of overall surface-PBL coupling. When compared against observations, CFSR has a significant dry bias that impacts all components of the land-PBL system. CFSR and NARR are more similar in terms of PBL dynamics and response to dry and wet extremes, while MERRA is more constrained in terms of evaporation and PBL variability. The implications for moist processes are also discussed, which warrants further investigation into the potential downstream impacts of land-PBL coupling on the diurnal cycle of clouds, convection, and precipitation. Lastly, the results are put into context of community investigations into drought assessment and predictability over the region and underscore that caution should be used when treating RAs as truth, as the coupled water and energy cycle representation in each can vary considerably.

  20. Evaluation of the Reanalysis Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Products from NCEP, ECMWF, GSFC, and JMA Using Satellite and Surface Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaotong Zhang

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Solar radiation incident at the Earth’s surface (Rs is an essential component of the total energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface. Reanalysis data have been widely used, but a comprehensive validation using surface measurements is still highly needed. In this study, we evaluated the Rs estimates from six current representative global reanalyses (NCEP–NCAR, NCEP-DOE; CFSR; ERA-Interim; MERRA; and JRA-55 using surface measurements from different observation networks [GEBA; BSRN; GC-NET; Buoy; and CMA] (674 sites in total and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES EBAF product from 2001 to 2009. The global mean biases between the reanalysis Rs and surface measurements at all sites ranged from 11.25 W/m2 to 49.80 W/m2. Comparing with the CERES-EBAF Rs product, all the reanalyses overestimate Rs, except for ERA-Interim, with the biases ranging from −2.98 W/m2 to 21.97 W/m2 over the globe. It was also found that the biases of cloud fraction (CF in the reanalyses caused the overestimation of Rs. After removing the averaged bias of CERES-EBAF, weighted by the area of the latitudinal band, a global annual mean Rs values of 184.6 W/m2, 180.0 W/m2, and 182.9 W/m2 were obtained over land, ocean, and the globe, respectively.

  1. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

    2016-12-05

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  2. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008–2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience’. PMID:28080984

  3. An Evaluation of Satellite-Based and Re-Analysis Radiation Budget Datasets Using CERES EBAF Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shashi; Stackhouse, Paul; Wong, Takmeng; Mikovitz, Colleen; Cox, Stephen; Zhang, Taiping

    2016-04-01

    Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative fluxes from CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF; Loeb et al., 2009; Kato et al. 2013) products are used to evaluate the performance of several widely used long-term radiation budget datasets. Two of those are derived from satellite observations and five more are from re-analysis products. Satellite-derived datasets are the NASA/GEWEX Surface and TOA Radiation Budget Dataset Release-3 and the ISCCP-FD Dataset. The re-analysis datasets are taken from NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, Japanese Re-Analysis (JRA-55), MERRA and the newly released MERRA2 products. Close examination is made of the differences between MERRA and MERRA2 products for the purpose of identifying improvements achieved for MERRA2. Many of these datasets have undergone quality assessment under the GEWEX Radiative Flux Assessment (RFA) project. For the purposes of the present study, EBAF datasets are treated as reference and other datasets are compared with it. All-sky and clear-sky, SW and LW, TOA and surface fluxes are included in this study. A 7-year period (2001-2007) common to all datasets is chosen for comparisons of global and zonal averages, monthly and annual average timeseries, and their anomalies. These comparisons show significant differences between EBAF and the other datasets. Certain anomalies and trends observed in the satellite-derived datasets are attributable to corresponding features in satellite datasets used as input, especially ISCCP cloud properties. Comparisons of zonal averages showed significant differences especially over higher latitudes even when those differences are not obvious in the global averages. Special emphasis is placed on the analysis of the correspondence between spatial patterns of geographical distribution of the above fluxes on a 7-year average as well as on a month-by-month basis using the Taylor (2001) methodology. Results showed that for 7-year average fields correlation coefficients between spatial patterns

  4. Atmospheric winter response to Arctic sea ice changes in reanalysis data and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiser, Ralf; Nakamura, Tetsu; Handorf, Dörthe; Romanowsky, Erik; Dethloff, Klaus; Ukita, Jinro; Yamazaki, Koji

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, Arctic regions showcased the most pronounced signals of a changing climate: Sea ice is reduced by more the ten percent per decade. At the same time, global warming trends have their maximum in Arctic latitudes often labled Arctic Amplification. There is strong evidence that amplified Arctic changes feed back into mid-latitudes in winter. We identified mechanisms that link recent Arctic changes through vertically propagating planetary waves to events of a weakened stratospheric polar vortex. Related anomalies propagate downward and lead to negative AO-like situations in the troposphere. European winter climate is sensitive to negative AO situations in terms of cold air outbreaks that are likely to occur more often in that case. These results based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data do not allow to dismiss other potential forcing factors leading to observed mid-latitude climate changes. Nevertheless, properly designed Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) experiments with AFES and ECHAM6 are able to reproduce observed atmospheric circulation changes if only observed sea ice changes in the Arctic are prescribed. This allows to deduce mechanisms that explain how Arctic Amplification can lead to a negative AO response via a stratospheric pathway. Further investigation of these mechanisms may feed into improved prediction systems.

  5. Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Fischer, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.; Ganske, A.; Rosenhagen, G.; Heinrich, H.

    2015-06-01

    A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001-2100)-(1901-2000)], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

  6. Identification of storm surge events over the German Bight from atmospheric reanalysis and climate model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Befort

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A new procedure for the identification of storm surge situations for the German Bight is developed and applied to reanalysis and global climate model data. This method is based on the empirical approach for estimating storm surge heights using information about wind speed and wind direction. Here, we hypothesize that storm surge events are caused by high wind speeds from north-westerly direction in combination with a large-scale wind storm event affecting the North Sea region. The method is calibrated for ERA-40 data, using the data from the storm surge atlas for Cuxhaven. It is shown that using information of both wind speed and direction as well as large-scale wind storm events improves the identification of storm surge events. To estimate possible future changes of potential storm surge events, we apply the new identification approach to an ensemble of three transient climate change simulations performed with the ECHAM5/MPIOM model under A1B greenhouse gas scenario forcing. We find an increase in the total number of potential storm surge events of about 12 % [(2001–2100–(1901–2000], mainly based on changes of moderate events. Yearly numbers of storm surge relevant events show high interannual and decadal variability and only one of three simulations shows a statistical significant increase in the yearly number of potential storm surge events between 1900 and 2100. However, no changes in the maximum intensity and duration of all potential events is determined. Extreme value statistic analysis confirms no frequency change of the most severe events.

  7. Complementizer Agreement in Modern Varieties of West Germanic: A Model of Reanalysis and Renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bousquette, Joshua

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation provides a comparative analysis of Complementizer Agreement (C-agr) in modern dialects of West Germanic from a diachronic perspective, attributing the rise and development of C-agr to the initiation and progression of a Linguistic Cycle specific to C-agr. Approached as a historical process of reanalysis and compensatory renewal…

  8. Assessment of cloud cover in climate models and reanalysis databases with ISCCP over the Mediterranean region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enriquez, Aaron; Calbo, Josep; Gonzalez, Josep-Abel

    2013-04-01

    Clouds are an important regulator of climate due to their influence on the water balance of the atmosphere and their interaction with solar and infrared radiation. At any time, clouds cover a great percentage of the Earth's surface but their distribution is very irregular along time and space, which makes the evaluation of their influence on climate a difficult task. At present there are few studies related to cloud cover comparing current climate models with observational data. In this study, the database of monthly cloud cover provided by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) has been chosen as a reference against which we compare the output of CMIP5 climate models and reanalysis databases, on the domain South-Europe-Mediterranean (SEM) established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [1]. The study covers the period between 1984 and 2009, and the performance of cloud cover estimations for seasons has also been studied. To quantify the agreement between the databases we use two types of statistics: bias and SkillScore, which is based on the probability density functions (PDFs) of the databases [2]. We also use Taylor diagrams to visualize the statistics. Results indicate that there are areas where the models accurately describe what it is observed by ISCCP, for some periods of the year (e.g. Northern Africa, for autumn), compared to other areas and periods for which the agreement is lower (Iberian Peninsula in winter and the Black Sea for the summer months). However these differences should be attributed not only to the limitations of climate models, but possibly also to the data provided by ISCCP. References [1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I Report: The Physical Science Basis. [2] Ranking the AR4 climate models over the Murray Darling Basin using simulated maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation. Int J Climatol 28

  9. NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Data is from NMC initialized reanalysis (4x/day). It consists of most variables interpolated to pressure surfaces from model (sigma) surfaces.

  10. GREP: Evaluation of the Copernicus Marine Service Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product: deriving uncertainty estimates for 3D T and S variability in the ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desportes, Charles; Drévillon, Marie; Drillet, Yann; Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Régnier, Charly; Masina, Simona; Storto, Andrea; Petterson, Drew; Wood, Richard; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Zuo, Hao

    2017-04-01

    Global ocean reanalyses are homogeneous 3D gridded descriptions of the physical state of the ocean spanning several decades, produced with a numerical ocean model constrained with data assimilation of satellite and in situ observations. The evaluation of global ocean reanalyses, and of how well they capture ocean variability, has progressed these recent years thanks to the CLIVAR/GSOP/GODAE Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project ORA-IP (Balmaseda et al 2015). During the MyOcean project, several high resolution (1/4° horizontal grid) reanalyses based on NEMO but produced with different tunings and by different institutes, were evaluated jointly using common validation guidelines (Masina et al, 2015). The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service CMEMS (marine.copernicus.eu) Global Monitoring and Forecasting Center now takes advantage of the diversity of ocean reanalyses currently developed with that same NEMO model grid (ORCA025 at ¼°) to propose a multi-model ensemble product, which spread allows uncertainties or error bars to be estimated. In a number of regions, the ensemble mean may even provide a more reliable estimate than any individual reanalysis product. Four reanalyses have been selected to contribute to the project; GLORYS2V4 from Mercator Ocean (Fr), ORAS5 from ECMWF, FOAM/GloSea from Met Office (UK), and C-GLORS from CMCC (It). The four different time series of global ocean 3D monthly estimates have been post-processed to create the new product called GREP (Global Reanalysis Ensemble Product), covering the recent period during which altimetry observations are available: 1993-2015. Starting from April 20th 2017, the ensemble mean and standard deviation of the ensemble, as well as the four individual members for the period 1993-2015, are thus made available on a 1°x1° grid and monthly frequency. The time series will be extended by one year each year. In the presentation, we will describe the results of the scientific qualification of the

  11. A reanalysis of North Sea plaice spawning-stock biomass using the annual egg production method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damme, van C.J.G.; Bolle, L.J.; Fossum, P.; Kraus, G.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2009-01-01

    Uncertainty about the quality of current virtual population analysis-based stock assessment for North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) has led to various abundance indices. We compared biomass estimates from the annual egg production (AEP) method with current stock assessments based on catch-at-ag

  12. Reanalysis of global terrestrial vegetation trends from MODIS products: Browning or greening?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yulong Zhang; Conghe Song; Lawrence E. Band; Ge Sun; Junxiang Li

    2017-01-01

    Accurately monitoring global vegetation dynamics with modern remote sensing is critical for understanding the functions and processes of the biosphere and its interactions with the planetary climate. The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index (VI) product has been a primary data source for this purpose. To date, theMODIS teamhad released...

  13. A reanalysis of North Sea plaice spawning-stock biomass using the annual egg production method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damme, van C.J.G.; Bolle, L.J.; Fossum, P.; Kraus, G.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2009-01-01

    Uncertainty about the quality of current virtual population analysis-based stock assessment for North Sea plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) has led to various abundance indices. We compared biomass estimates from the annual egg production (AEP) method with current stock assessments based on

  14. JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumimoto, Keiya; Tanaka, Taichu Y.; Oshima, Naga; Maki, Takashi

    2017-09-01

    A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero) was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1° × 1.1°). This paper describes the aerosol transport model, the data assimilation system, the observation data, and the setup of the reanalysis and examines its quality with AOD observations. Comparisons with MODIS AODs that were used for the assimilation showed that the reanalysis showed much better agreement than the free run (without assimilation) of the aerosol model and improved under- and overestimation in the free run, thus confirming the accuracy of the data assimilation system. The reanalysis had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.05, a correlation coefficient (R) of 0.96, a mean fractional error (MFE) of 23.7 %, a mean fractional bias (MFB) of 2.8 %, and an index of agreement (IOA) of 0.98. The better agreement of the first guess, compared to the free run, indicates that aerosol fields obtained by the reanalysis can improve short-term forecasts. AOD fields from the reanalysis also agreed well with monthly averaged global AODs obtained by the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) (RMSE = 0.08, R = 0. 90, MFE = 28.1 %, MFB = 0.6 %, and IOA = 0.93). Site-by-site comparison showed that the reanalysis was considerably better than the free run; RMSE was less than 0.10 at 86.4 % of the 181 AERONET sites, R was greater than 0.90 at 40.7 % of the sites, and IOA was greater than 0.90 at 43.4 % of the sites. However, the reanalysis tended to have a negative bias at urban sites (in particular, megacities in industrializing countries) and a positive bias at mountain sites, possibly because

  15. Toward a chemical reanalysis in a coupled chemistry-climate model: An evaluation of MOPITT CO assimilation and its impact on tropospheric composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaubert, B.; Arellano, A. F.; Barré, J.; Worden, H. M.; Emmons, L. K.; Tilmes, S.; Buchholz, R. R.; Vitt, F.; Raeder, K.; Collins, N.; Anderson, J. L.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Martinez Alonso, S.; Edwards, D. P.; Andreae, M. O.; Hannigan, J. W.; Petri, C.; Strong, K.; Jones, N.

    2016-06-01

    We examine in detail a 1 year global reanalysis of carbon monoxide (CO) that is based on joint assimilation of conventional meteorological observations and Measurement of Pollution in The Troposphere (MOPITT) multispectral CO retrievals in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Our focus is to assess the impact to the chemical system when CO distribution is constrained in a coupled full chemistry-climate model like CESM. To do this, we first evaluate the joint reanalysis (MOPITT Reanalysis) against four sets of independent observations and compare its performance against a reanalysis with no MOPITT assimilation (Control Run). We then investigate the CO burden and chemical response with the aid of tagged sectoral CO tracers. We estimate the total tropospheric CO burden in 2002 (from ensemble mean and spread) to be 371 ± 12% Tg for MOPITT Reanalysis and 291 ± 9% Tg for Control Run. Our multispecies analysis of this difference suggests that (a) direct emissions of CO and hydrocarbons are too low in the inventory used in this study and (b) chemical oxidation, transport, and deposition processes are not accurately and consistently represented in the model. Increases in CO led to net reduction of OH and subsequent longer lifetime of CH4 (Control Run: 8.7 years versus MOPITT Reanalysis: 9.3 years). Yet at the same time, this increase led to 5-10% enhancement of Northern Hemisphere O3 and overall photochemical activity via HOx recycling. Such nonlinear effects further complicate the attribution to uncertainties in direct emissions alone. This has implications to chemistry-climate modeling and inversion studies of longer-lived species.

  16. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koller, Josep [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Reeves, Geoffrey D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Friedel, Reiner H W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    Space weather modeling, forecasts, and predictions, especially for the radiation belts in the inner magnetosphere, require detailed information about the Earth's magnetic field. Results depend on the magnetic field model and the L* (pron. L-star) values which are used to describe particle drift shells. Space wather models require integrating particle motions along trajectories that encircle the Earth. Numerical integration typically takes on the order of 10{sup 5} calls to a magnetic field model which makes the L* calculations very slow, in particular when using a dynamic and more accurate magnetic field model. Researchers currently tend to pick simplistic models over more accurate ones but also risking large inaccuracies and even wrong conclusions. For example, magnetic field models affect the calculation of electron phase space density by applying adiabatic invariants including the drift shell value L*. We present here a new method using a surrogate model based on a neural network technique to replace the time consuming L* calculations made with modern magnetic field models. The advantage of surrogate models (or meta-models) is that they can compute the same output in a fraction of the time while adding only a marginal error. Our drift shell model LANL* (Los Alamos National Lab L-star) is based on L* calculation using the TSK03 model. The surrogate model has currently been tested and validated only for geosynchronous regions but the method is generally applicable to any satellite orbit. Computations with the new model are several million times faster compared to the standard integration method while adding less than 1% error. Currently, real-time applications for forecasting and even nowcasting inner magnetospheric space weather is limited partly due to the long computing time of accurate L* values. Without them, real-time applications are limited in accuracy. Reanalysis application of past conditions in the inner magnetosphere are used to understand

  17. The diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone from the MACC reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, WACCM and Earth observation data: characteristics and intercomparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schanz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we compare the diurnal variation in stratospheric ozone derived from free-running simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM and from reanalysis data of the atmospheric service MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate which both use a similar stratospheric chemistry module. We find good agreement between WACCM and the MACC reanalysis for the diurnal ozone variation in the high-latitude summer stratosphere based on photochemistry. In addition, we consult the ozone data product of the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The ERA-Interim reanalysis ozone system with its long-term ozone parametrization can not capture these diurnal variations in the upper stratosphere that are due to photochemistry. The good dynamics representations, however, reflects well dynamically induced ozone variations in the lower stratosphere. For the high-latitude winter stratosphere we describe a novel feature of diurnal variation in ozone where changes of up to 46.6% (3.3 ppmv occur in monthly mean data. For this effect good agreement between the ERA-Interim reanalysis and the MACC reanalysis suggest quite similar diurnal advection processes of ozone. The free-running WACCM model seriously underestimates the role of diurnal advection processes at the polar vortex at the two tested resolutions. The intercomparison of the MACC reanalysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis demonstrates how global reanalyses can benefit from a chemical representation held by a chemical transport model. The MACC reanalysis provides an unprecedented description of the dynamics and photochemistry of the diurnal variation of stratospheric ozone which is of high interest for ozone trend analysis and research on atmospheric tides. We confirm the diurnal variation in ozone at 5 hPa by observations of the Superconducting Submillimeter-Wave Limb-Emission Sounder (SMILES experiment and selected sites of the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC

  18. A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Tregoning, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data

  19. A global water cycle reanalysis (2003-2012) merging satellite gravimetry and altimetry observations with a hydrological multi-model ensemble

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dijk, A. I. J. M.; Renzullo, L. J.; Wada, Y.; Tregoning, P.

    2014-01-01

    We present a global water cycle reanalysis that merges water balance estimates derived from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, satellite water level altimetry and off-line estimates from several hydrological models. Error estimates for the sequential data assimila

  20. A comparison of low pressure system statistics derived from a high-resolution NWP output and three reanalysis products over the Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uotila, P.; Pezza, A. B.; Cassano, J. J.; Keay, K.; Lynch, A. H.

    2009-09-01

    Low pressure system statistics derived from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and NCEP, NCEP2, and JRA25 reanalysis products are compared by using an automatic cyclone tracking scheme. Since AMPS model spatial and temporal resolutions are much higher than the ones of the reanalyses, this study provides a valuable insight of the ability of numerical models to simulate low pressure systems with an increasing resolution. Results based on AMPS data agree relatively well with reanalyses-based results when looking at the seasonal variability and spatial patterns of low pressure system properties over large scales. Results differ systematically close to the Antarctic ice sheet, where the horizontal resolution is important in resolving the continental topography. This appears as lower AMPS system densities and smaller system sizes close to the Antarctic coast. Results differ most during winter when the correct parameterization of surface energy balance is crucial over the sea-ice covered ocean. AMPS data show more systems at around and south of 60°S in the Antarctic Circumpolar Trough, where reanalyses display systems of larger size. Earlier studies of cyclonic systems over the Southern Ocean show that there is a spectrum of atmospheric systems, where small synoptic systems merge into mesoscale lows. Accordingly, a high-resolution model setup with appropriate physics parameterization, like AMPS, is required to generate small systems. This study highlights that when new data become available it is important to update low pressure system statistics to gain a better understanding of high-latitude processes over intermediate scales.

  1. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attada, Raju; Parekh, Anant; Chowdary, J. S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2017-07-01

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003-2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  2. Reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon: four dimensional data assimilation of AIRS retrievals in a regional data assimilation and modeling framework

    KAUST Repository

    Attada, Raju

    2017-07-04

    This work is the first attempt to produce a multi-year downscaled regional reanalysis of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational analyses and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 temperature and moisture retrievals in a regional model. Reanalysis of nine monsoon seasons (2003–2011) are produced in two parallel setups. The first set of experiments simply downscale the original NCEP operational analyses, whilst the second one assimilates the AIRS temperature and moisture profiles. The results show better representation of the key monsoon features such as low level jet, tropical easterly jet, subtropical westerly jet, monsoon trough and the spatial pattern of precipitation when AIRS profiles are assimilated (compared to those without AIRS data assimilation). The distribution of temperature, moisture and meridional gradients of dynamical and thermodynamical fields over the monsoon region are better represented in the reanalysis that assimilates AIRS profiles. The change induced by AIRS data on the moist and thermodynamic conditions results in more realistic rendering of the vertical shear associated with the monsoon, which in turn leads to a proper moisture transport and the moist convective feedback. This feedback benefits the representation of the regional monsoon characteristics, the monsoon dynamics and the moist convective processes on the seasonal time scale. This study emphasizes the use of AIRS soundings for downscaling of ISM representation in a regional reanalysis.

  3. An intercomparison between the surface heat flux feedback in five coupled models, COADS and the NCEP reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frankignoul, C.; Kestenare, E. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, 4 place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Botzet, M. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Carril, A.F. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Drange, H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Pardaens, A. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office (United Kingdom); Terray, L.; Sutton, R. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

    2004-04-01

    The surface heat flux feedback is estimated in the Atlantic and the extra-tropical Indo-Pacific, using monthly heat flux and sea surface temperature anomaly data from control simulations with five global climate models, and it is compared to estimates derived from COADS and the NCEP reanalysis. In all data sets, the heat flux feedback is negative nearly everywhere and damps the sea surface temperature anomalies. At extra-tropical latitudes, it is strongly dominated by the turbulent fluxes. The radiative feedback can be positive or negative, depending on location and season, but it remains small, except in some models in the tropical Atlantic. The negative heat flux feedback is strong in the mid-latitude storm tracks, exceeding 40 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} at place, but in the Northern Hemisphere it is substantially underestimated in several models. The negative feedback weakens at high latitudes, although the models do not reproduce the weak positive feedback found in NCEP in the northern North Atlantic. The main differences are found in the tropical Atlantic where the heat flux feedback is weakly negative in some models, as in the observations, and strongly negative in others where it can exceed 30 W m{sup -2} K{sup -1} at large scales, in part because of a strong contribution of the radiative fluxes, in particular during spring. A comparison between models with similar atmospheric or oceanic components suggests that the atmospheric model is primarily responsible for the heat flux feedback differences at extra-tropical latitudes. In the tropical Atlantic, the ocean behavior plays an equal role. The differences in heat flux feedback in the tropical Atlantic are reflected in the sea surface temperature anomaly persistence, which is too small in models where the heat flux damping is large. A good representation of the heat flux feedback is thus required to simulate climate variability realistically. (orig.)

  4. A Reanalysis of High Resolution XMM-Newton Data of V2491 Cyg Using Collisionally Ionized Hot Absorber Models

    CERN Document Server

    Balman, Solen

    2016-01-01

    We present a reanalysis of XMM-Newton Reflection Grating Spectrometer data of the classical nova V2491 Cyg obtained from two different pointings, 40 d and 50 d after outburst utilizing the SRON software SPEX version 2.05.04. We aim to model absorption components using hot collisionally ionized absorber models along with interstellar absorption (of gas and dust origin separately). We find blackbody temperatures in a range 61-91 eV for the continuum yielding a white dwarf mass of 1.15-1.3 M_sun. We derive two different hot absorber components with blueshifts yielding 2900-3800 km/s for the first (day 40) and 2600-3600 km/s for the second observation 50 days after outburst consistent with ejecta/wind speeds. The two collisionally ionized hot absorption components have temperatures kT_1 =1.0-3.6 keV and kT_2 =0.4-0.87 keV with rms velocities (sigma_v) 872 km/s and 56 km/s. These are consistent with shock temperatures in the X-ray wavelengths. V2491 Cyg shows signature of H-burning with underabundant carbon C/C_su...

  5. Twentieth century ENSO-related precipitation mean states in twentieth century reanalysis, reconstructed precipitation and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Ni; Arkin, Phillip A.

    2017-05-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related precipitation during the entire twentieth century is compared among the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR), a statistically reconstructed precipitation dataset (REC) and 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Empirical orthogonal functions, ENSO-related precipitation composites based on sea surface temperature (SST)-constructed ENSO index and singular value decomposition (SVD) are employed to extract ENSO-related precipitation/SST signals in each dataset. With the background trend being removed in all of the data, our results show that the REC and the 20CR resemble both in their precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation results. The biases in the CMIP5 models precipitation climatology such as dry equator over the Pacific Ocean, "double-intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs)" and overly zonal Southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) are major reasons for lowering spatial correlations with the REC and the 20CR precipitation climatology. Two groups of CMIP5 models are built based on severity of these biases in their precipitation background and the spatial correlations of ENSO-related precipitation with the observations. Compared with the group with more severe biases in its precipitation climatology, the group with smaller biases tends to produce more ENSO-like precipitation patterns, simulate more realistic mean magnitude and seasonal variability of ENSO precipitation signals, as well as generating better ENSO-related SST/precipitation correlation patterns produced in its SVD analysis. The ENSO-related precipitation biases in the CMIP5 models over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, as well as the equatorial Pacific, are strongly related with their precipitation climatology biases over these regions. The ENSO-related precipitation biases over the off-equator eastern Pacific Ocean are associated with both the "double-ITCZs" biases in the precipitation climatology and the ENSO

  6. A first overview of an ensemble of regional climate models over South America forced with 1989-2008 ERAinterim reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Enrique; Berbery, Hugo; Samuelsson, Manuel De Castro (1), Roberto García.-Ochoa (1), Patrick; Jacob, Armelle Reca C.-Remedio (4), Daniela; Rojas, Maisa; Menéndez, Anna Sorensson (6, 1), Claudio; Porfirio Rocha, Rosmeri; Solman, Silvina; Chou, Jose Marengo (8), Sin Chan; (9), Hervé Le Treut, Laurent Li

    2010-05-01

    The EU FP7 CLARIS LPB project (A Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin, 2008-2012) aims at predicting the climate change impact on hydroclimate and extreme events over La Plata Basin. As the first step to reach this goal, a group of regional climate models (RCMs) forced by 1989-2008 ERAinterim reanalysis have simulated the South American continent with 50km of horizontal resolution. The domains of the models are large enough to include the one proposed by CORDEX (A COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment). One of the most challenging climatic features of the South American continent is the large uncertainties shown by the global climate model simulations included in the last IPCC (2007). Within this regional climate model intercomparison exercise, the analysis of the spread in their results, related to their physical parameterizations, could be a key aspect that may help to understand the global models'shortcomings. In a first overview, seasonal mean temperature and precipitation are compared for each RCM available against CRU observations to evaluate their capability to describe the main climatic features of the continent. Some metrics were developed for a more specific analysis of the main atmospheric processes involved in the region, with special attention to the hydrological cycle and extreme events. This validation analysis of present climate period is also an essential first step issue needed for the following modelling studies of future climatic conditions that are going to be performed as a second step inside the CLARIS-LPB project.

  7. Twentieth century ENSO-related precipitation mean states in twentieth century reanalysis, reconstructed precipitation and CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Ni; Arkin, Phillip A.

    2016-07-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related precipitation during the entire twentieth century is compared among the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR), a statistically reconstructed precipitation dataset (REC) and 30 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Empirical orthogonal functions, ENSO-related precipitation composites based on sea surface temperature (SST)-constructed ENSO index and singular value decomposition (SVD) are employed to extract ENSO-related precipitation/SST signals in each dataset. With the background trend being removed in all of the data, our results show that the REC and the 20CR resemble both in their precipitation climatology and ENSO-related precipitation results. The biases in the CMIP5 models precipitation climatology such as dry equator over the Pacific Ocean, "double-intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs)" and overly zonal Southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) are major reasons for lowering spatial correlations with the REC and the 20CR precipitation climatology. Two groups of CMIP5 models are built based on severity of these biases in their precipitation background and the spatial correlations of ENSO-related precipitation with the observations. Compared with the group with more severe biases in its precipitation climatology, the group with smaller biases tends to produce more ENSO-like precipitation patterns, simulate more realistic mean magnitude and seasonal variability of ENSO precipitation signals, as well as generating better ENSO-related SST/precipitation correlation patterns produced in its SVD analysis. The ENSO-related precipitation biases in the CMIP5 models over the western Pacific and Indian Ocean, as well as the equatorial Pacific, are strongly related with their precipitation climatology biases over these regions. The ENSO-related precipitation biases over the off-equator eastern Pacific Ocean are associated with both the "double-ITCZs" biases in the precipitation climatology and the ENSO

  8. Multiyear simulation of the African climate using a regional climate model (RegCM3) with the high resolution ERA-interim reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba [Cheikh Anta Diop University, Laboratory for Atmospheric Physics, Simeon Fongang (LPASF), Polytechnic School, BP 5085, Dakar (Senegal); Coppola, E.; Giorgi, F.; Bi, X. [International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Physics of Weather and Climate Group, Earth System Physics Section, Trieste (Italy); Mariotti, L. [International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Physics of Weather and Climate Group, Earth System Physics Section, Trieste (Italy); University of L' Aquila, Department of Physics, Centre of Excellence CETEMPS, L' Aquila (Italy); Ruti, P.M.; Dell' Aquila, A. [Casaccia Center, Ente per le Nuove Technologie, l' Energia e l' Ambiente (ENEA), Climate Section, Rome (Italy)

    2010-07-15

    This study examines the ability of the latest version of the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM3) to reproduce seasonal mean climatologies, annual cycle and interannual variability over the entire African continent and different climate subregions. The new European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-interim reanalysis is used to provide initial and lateral boundary conditions for the RegCM3 simulation. Seasonal mean values of zonal wind profile, temperature, precipitation and associated low level circulations are shown to be realistically simulated, although the regional model still shows some deficiencies. The West Africa monsoon flow is somewhat overestimated and the Africa Easterly Jet (AEJ) core intensity is underestimated. Despite these biases, there is a marked improvement in these simulated model variables compared to previous applications of this model over Africa. The mean annual cycle of precipitation, including single and multiple rainy seasons, is well captured over most African subregions, in some cases even improving the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. Similarly, the observed precipitation interannual variability is well reproduced by the regional model over most regions, mostly following, and sometimes improving, the quality of the ERA-interim reanalysis. It is assessed that the performance of this model over the entire African domain is of sufficient quality for application to the study of climate change and climate variability over the African continent. (orig.)

  9. Higher-order factors of the big five model of personality: a reanalysis of Digman (1997).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutch, Christopher

    2005-02-01

    Based on the results from factor analyses conducted on 14 different data sets, Digman proposed a model of two higher-order factors, or metatraits, that subsumed the Big Five personality traits. In the current article, problems in Digman's analyses were explicated, and more appropriate analyses were then conducted using the same 14 correlation matrices from Digman's study. The resultant two-factor model produced improper solutions, poor model fit indices, or both, in almost all of the 14 data sets and thus raised serious doubts about the veracity of Digman's proposed model.

  10. Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Tedesco

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ~ 97% of the ice sheet and melting lasted up to ~ two months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ~ 3 standard deviations (σ above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance was ~ 3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean.

    We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, changes in surface conditions (e.g. albedo and pre-conditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Because of self-amplifying positive feedbacks, less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should large-scale atmospheric circulation and induced surface characteristics observed over the past decade persist. Since the general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 do not simulate the abnormal anticyclonic circulation resulting from extremely negative NAO conditions as observed over recent years, contribution to sea level rise projected under different warming scenarios will be underestimated should the trend in NAO summer values continue.

  11. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NARR dataset is an extension of the NCEP Global Reanalysis which is run over the North American Region. The NARR model uses the very high resolution NCEP Eta...

  12. Seasonal cycle of volume transport through Kerama Gap revealed by a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhitao; Metzger, E. Joseph; Thoppil, Prasad; Hurlburt, Harley E.; Zamudio, Luis; Smedstad, Ole Martin; Na, Hanna; Nakamura, Hirohiko; Park, Jae-Hun

    2015-12-01

    The temporal variability of volume transport from the North Pacific Ocean to the East China Sea (ECS) through Kerama Gap (between Okinawa Island and Miyakojima Island - a part of Ryukyu Islands Arc) is investigated using a 20-year global HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) reanalysis with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation from 1993 to 2012. The HYCOM mean transport is 2.1 Sv (positive into the ECS, 1 Sv = 106 m3/s) from June 2009 to June 2011, in good agreement with the observed 2.0 Sv transport during the same period. This is similar to the 20-year mean Kerama Gap transport of 1.95 ± 4.0 Sv. The 20-year monthly mean volume transport (transport seasonal cycle) is maximum in October (3.0 Sv) and minimum in November (0.5 Sv). The annual variation component (345-400 days), mesoscale eddy component (70-345 days), and Kuroshio meander component (< 70 days) are separated to determine their contributions to the transport seasonal cycle. The annual variation component has a close relation with the local wind field and increases (decreases) transport into the ECS through Kerama Gap in summer (winter). Most of the variations in the transport seasonal cycle come from the mesoscale eddy component. The impinging mesoscale eddies increase the transport into the ECS during January, February, May, and October, and decrease it in March, April, November, and December, but have little effect in summer (June-September). The Kuroshio meander components cause smaller transport variations in summer than in winter.

  13. Investigating relationships between aerosol optical depth and cloud fraction using satellite, aerosol reanalysis and general circulation model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. S. Grandey

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Strong positive relationships between cloud fraction (fc and aerosol optical depth (τ have been reported. Data retrieved from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS instrument show positive fc–τ relationships across most of the globe. A global mean fc increase of approximately 0.2 between low and high τ conditions is found for both ocean and land. However, these relationships are not necessarily due to cloud–aerosol interactions. Using state-of-the-art Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC reanalysis-forecast τ data, which should be less affected by retrieval artefacts, it is demonstrated that a large part of the observed fc–τ signal may be due to cloud contamination of satellite-retrieved τ. For longer MACC forecast time steps of 24 h, which likely contain less cloud contamination, some negative fc–τ relationships are found. The global mean fc increase between low and high τ conditions is reduced to 0.1, suggesting that cloud contamination may account for approximately one half of the satellite-retrieved increase in fc. ECHAM5-HAM general circulation model (GCM simulations further demonstrate that positive fc–τ relationships may arise due to covariation with relative humidity. Widespread negative simulated fc–τ relationships in the tropics are shown to arise due to scavenging of aerosol by convective precipitation. Wet scavenging events are likely poorly sampled in satellite-retrieved data, because the properties of aerosol below clouds cannot be retrieved. Quantifying the role of wet scavenging, and assessing GCM representations of this important process, remains a challenge for future observational studies of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions.

  14. Assessing the resilience of Norway spruce forests through a model-based reanalysis of thinning trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Vigl, Friedrich; Rössler, Günter; Neumann, Markus; Rammer, Werner

    2017-03-15

    As a result of a rapidly changing climate the resilience of forests is an increasingly important property for ecosystem management. Recent efforts have improved the theoretical understanding of resilience, yet its operational quantification remains challenging. Furthermore, there is growing awareness that resilience is not only a means to addressing the consequences of climate change but is also affected by it, necessitating a better understanding of the climate sensitivity of resilience. Quantifying current and future resilience is thus an important step towards mainstreaming resilience thinking into ecosystem management. Here, we present a novel approach for quantifying forest resilience from thinning trials, and assess the climate sensitivity of resilience using process-based ecosystem modeling. We reinterpret the wide range of removal intensities and frequencies in thinning trials as an experimental gradient of perturbation, and estimate resilience as the recovery rate after perturbation. Our specific objectives were (i) to determine how resilience varies with stand and site conditions, (ii) to assess the climate sensitivity of resilience across a range of potential future climate scenarios, and (iii) to evaluate the robustness of resilience estimates to different focal indicators and assessment methodologies. We analyzed three long-term thinning trials in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests across an elevation gradient in Austria, evaluating and applying the individual-based process model iLand. The resilience of Norway spruce was highest at the montane site, and decreased at lower elevations. Resilience also decreased with increasing stand age and basal area. The effects of climate change were strongly context-dependent: At the montane site, where precipitation levels were ample even under climate change, warming increased resilience in all scenarios. At lower elevations, however, rising temperatures decreased resilience, particularly at

  15. Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nord, Camilla L; Valton, Vincent; Wood, John; Roiser, Jonathan P

    2017-08-23

    Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered-some very seriously so-but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but potentially

  16. Developing a high-resolution regional atmospheric reanalysis for Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Christopher; Fox-Hughes, Paul; Su, Chun-Hsu; Jakob, Dörte; Kociuba, Greg; Eisenberg, Nathan; Steinle, Peter; Harris, Rebecca; Corney, Stuart; Love, Peter; Remenyi, Tomas; Chladil, Mark; Bally, John; Bindoff, Nathan

    2017-04-01

    , precipitation, evaporation, soil water, and energy fluxes. In this presentation, we report on the implementation of the Australia regional reanalysis and results from first stages of the project, with a focus on the Tasmanian subdomain. An initial benchmarking 1.5 km data set - referred to as the 'Initial Analysis' - has been constructed over the subdomains consisting of regridded and harmonised analysis and short-term forecast fields from the operational ACCESS-C model using the past 5 years (2011-2015) of archived data. Evaluation of the Initial Analysis against surface observations from automatic weather stations indicate changes in model skills over time that may be attributed to changes in NWP and assimilation systems, and model cycling frequency. Preliminary evaluations of the reanalysis across Tasmania and its inter-comparisons with the Initial Analysis and the ERA-Interim reanalysis products will be presented, including some features across the Tasmanian subdomain such as means and extremes of analysed weather variables. Finally, we describe a number of applications across Tasmania of the reanalysis of immediate interest to meteorologists, fire and landscape managers and other members of the emergency management community, including the use of the data to create post-processed fields such as soil dryness, tornados and fire danger indices for forest fire danger risk assessment, including a climatology of Continuous Haines Index.

  17. Towards a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for Europe: evaluation of precipitation from experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liselotte Bach

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A new development in the field of reanalyses is the incorporation of uncertainty estimation capabilities. We have developed a probabilistic regional reanalysis system for the CORDEX-EUR11 domain that is based on the numerical weather prediction model COSMO at a 12-km grid spacing. The lateral boundary conditions of all ensemble members are provided by the global reanalysis ERA-Interim. In the basic implementation of the system, uncertainties due to observation errors are estimated. Atmospheric assimilation of conventional observations perturbed by means of random samples of observation error yields estimates of the reanalysis uncertainty conditioned to observation errors. The data assimilation employed is a new scheme based on observation nudging that we denote ensemble nudging. The lower boundary of the atmosphere is regularly updated by external snow depth, sea surface temperature and soil moisture analyses. One of the most important purposes of reanalyses is the estimation of so-called essential climate variables. For regional reanalyses, precipitation has been identified as one of the essential climate variables that are potentially better represented than in other climate data sets. For that reason, we assess the representation of precipitation in our system in a pilot study. Based on two experiments, each of which extends over one month, we conduct a preliminary comparison to the global reanalysis ERA-Interim, a dynamical downscaling of the latter and the high-resolution regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6. In a next step, we assess our reanalysis system's probabilistic capabilities versus the ECMWF-EPS in terms of six-hourly precipitation sums. The added value of our probabilistic regional reanalysis system motivates the current production of a 5-year-long test reanalysis COSMO-EN-REA12 in the framework of the FP7-funded project Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analyses (UERRA.

  18. Response Surface Methodology Using a Fullest Balanced Model: A Re-Analysis of a Dataset in the Korean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheem, Sungsue; Rheem, Insoo; Oh, Sejong

    2017-01-01

    Response surface methodology (RSM) is a useful set of statistical techniques for modeling and optimizing responses in research studies of food science. In the analysis of response surface data, a second-order polynomial regression model is usually used. However, sometimes we encounter situations where the fit of the second-order model is poor. If the model fitted to the data has a poor fit including a lack of fit, the modeling and optimization results might not be accurate. In such a case, using a fullest balanced model, which has no lack of fit, can fix such problem, enhancing the accuracy of the response surface modeling and optimization. This article presents how to develop and use such a model for the better modeling and optimizing of the response through an illustrative re-analysis of a dataset in Park et al. (2014) published in the Korean Journal for Food Science of Animal Resources.

  19. An investigation of predictability dynamics of temperature and precipitation in reanalysis datasets over the continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, C. T.; Villarini, Gabriele

    2017-01-01

    Reanalysis datasets have been under critical scrutiny due to their widespread use in various climatic and hydrological modeling applications, in particular over many areas of the globe with limited or absent reliable observational data. Nevertheless, reanalysis products are in the process of continuous improvements reflecting the improved system knowledge, model physics and assimilation techniques. In addition, several internal model adjustments have also been adopted to minimize the bias in reanalysis datasets. Considering these factors, it is necessary to investigate the inherent chaotic dynamics of reanalyses and the possible discrepancies, if any, with respect to the observational data. Here we compare and contrast the chaotic dynamics of daily precipitation and daily mean surface temperature simulated by the reanalysis against observed data over the continental United States. Our focus is on four reanalysis products: the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ERA-Interim, Japanese Meteorological Agency's Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research's Reanalysis I. The inherent chaotic dynamics measured in terms of three statistics (i.e., maximum predictability, predictive error and predictive instability) reveal the inconsistency among the four reanalysis products. ERA-Interim is capable of simulating the precipitation's chaotic dynamics over much of the study region, while MERRA is found to be superior in capturing the temperature's chaotic dynamics. Analyses on various aspects of daily precipitation and temperature indicate that the biases in precipitation's chaotic dynamics may be attributed to the inconsistencies in simulating the signal-to-noise ratio and non-rainy days, while biases in temperature's chaotic dynamics could be due to the

  20. Production models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    The Project is co-financed with Nilpeter A/S and investigates the industrialization of build to order production. Project content: - Enterprise engineering - Specification processes - Mass Customization/ Build To Order - Knowledge/information management - Configuration - Supply Chain Management...

  1. Production models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten

    2002-01-01

    The Project is co-financed with Nilpeter A/S and investigates the industrialization of build to order production. Project content: - Enterprise engineering - Specification processes - Mass Customization/ Build To Order - Knowledge/information management - Configuration - Supply Chain Management...

  2. A 3-D evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the greater European region using CALIOP/CALIPSO satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Tsikerdekis, Athanasios; Amiridis, Vassilis; Marinou, Eleni; Benedetti, Angela; Zanis, Prodromos; Kourtidis, Konstantinos

    2016-04-01

    Significant amounts of dust are being transferred on an annual basis over the Mediterranean Basin and continental Europe from Northern Africa (Sahara Desert) and Middle East (Arabian Peninsula) as well as from other local sources. Dust affects a number of processes in the atmosphere modulating weather and climate also having an impact on human health and the economy. Therefore, the ability of simulating adequately the amount and optical properties of dust is essential. This work focuses on the evaluation of the MACC reanalysis dust product over the regions mentioned above. The evaluation procedure is based on pure dust satellite retrievals from CALIOP/CALIPSO that cover the period 2007-2012. The CALIOP/CALIPSO data utilized here come from an optimized retrieval scheme that was originally developed within the framework of the LIVAS (Lidar Climatology of Vertical Aerosol Structure for Space-Based LIDAR Simulation Studies) project. CALIOP/CALIPSO dust extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 532 nm are used for the validation of MACC natural aerosol extinction coefficients and dust optical depth patterns at 550 nm. Overall, it is shown in this work that space-based lidars may play a major role in the improvement of the MACC aerosol product. This research has been financed under the FP7 Programme MarcoPolo (Grand Number 606953, Theme SPA.2013.3.2-01).

  3. The Etesians: from observations to reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dafka, Stella; Xoplaki, Elena; Toreti, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos; Tyrlis, Evangelos; Zerefos, Christos; Luterbacher, Juerg

    2016-09-01

    The Etesians are among the most persistent regional scale wind systems in the lower troposphere that blow over the Aegean Sea during the extended summer season. In this study we evaluate the performance of three different reanalysis products (the twentieth century reanalysis, 20CR; the 40-year European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF, Re-Analysis, ERA40; and the recently released ECMWF reanalysis ERA-20C) in capturing the Etesian wind system. Three-hourly data from 24 stations over Greece are used and compared with reanalysis outputs for the extended summer season (May-September) from 1971 to 2000. An objective classification of Etesians based on the pressure difference over the Aegean is provided. Classified Etesian days are then investigated as well as the associated large scale atmospheric circulation. Results highlight the ability of the investigated reanalyses to adequately describe the Etesian meteorological regimes. Intense Etesians are associated with stronger geopotential height anomalies over western-central Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and with pronounced changes in the mean position of the jet streams. Finally, station time series provide evidence for less frequent intense Etesian days at the end of the extended summer season.

  4. From Product Models to Product State Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    A well-known technology designed to handle product data is Product Models. Product Models are in their current form not able to handle all types of product state information. Hence, the concept of a Product State Model (PSM) is proposed. The PSM and in particular how to model a PSM is the Research...... Object for this project. In the presentation, benefits and challenges of the PSM will be presented as a basis for the discussion....

  5. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

  6. Temperature dependent O3 absorption cross sections for GOME, SCIAMACHY and GOME-2: I. Re-analysis of Flight Model Data and Retrieval Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chehade, Wissam; Weber, Mark; Gorshelev, Victor; Serdyuchenko, Anna; Burrows, John P.

    For a long term coverage of global O3 measurements from SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imag-ing Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY), GOME1, and GOME2 (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment), high quality absorption cross section spectra is a pre-requisite. Laboratory measurements of cross section spectra of O3 (at 203K, 223K, 243K, 273K and 293K) were performed using CATGAS (Calibration Apparatus for Trace Gas Absorption Spec-troscopy) under representative in-flight conditions with SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 spectrom-eters to obviate the need of an instrumental slit function correction. For the data acquired from the CATGAS campaigns, a re-analysis is carried out to improve the overestimation in the total O3 retrieval by SCIAMACHY and GOME2 using the flight model (FM) reference data from SCIAMACHY and GOME2, respectively, with respect to GOME1. The reanalysis attempts to re-evaluate the concatenation of ozone optical density measurements obtained from CATGAS measurements and applying new ways to absolutely calibrate the cross-.sections using absolute reference cross-section data at reference wavelengths, Finally, a satellite retrieval error analy-sis will be performed to validate the updated satellite reference cross-sections. The updated reference data can be used for combining the data from the three instruments (plus the two upcoming GOME-2) generating a consisting long-term dataset of total ozone.

  7. Global distribution and variability of quasi 2 day waves based on the NOGAPS-ALPHA reanalysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancheva, Dora; Mukhtarov, Plamen; Siskind, David E.; Smith, Anne K.

    2016-11-01

    This study presents the analysis of 14 months (January 2009 to February 2010) of continuous hourly Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude reanalysis data used for examining the quasi 2 day wave (QTDW). The global structure and seasonal variability of the eastward and westward traveling QTDWs in all meteorological fields (geopotential height, zonal and meridional wind, and temperature) have been studied. The use of hourly reanalysis data allows a comprehensive understanding of the global spatial-temporal QTDW distribution by simultaneous separations of all tides and planetary waves. The wave characteristics (amplitudes and phases) are presented in latitude range ±80° and altitudes from 15 to 95 km. Two different types of eastward traveling waves are identified: (i) waves at middle and high latitudes with zonal wave numbers 2 and 3, which are observed in the local winters, and (ii) waves observed predominantly over the equator with zonal wave number 2, which do not have a well-defined seasonal variability but show some enhancement between June and August. While the first type waves are seen in all meteorological fields, the second ones are not seen in the meridional wind and belong to the ultrafast Kelvin waves. Two different types of westward traveling waves have been identified as well: (i) waves at middle and high latitudes with zonal wave numbers 2, 3, and 4, which are observed mainly in summer hemisphere, and (ii) waves observed predominantly over the equator with zonal wave numbers 1, 2, and 3, enhanced predominantly at both solstices but are seen in other seasons as well. While the first type waves are seen in all meteorological fields, the second ones are observed in the meridional wind and are Rossby-gravity normal modes.

  8. Extending Climate Analytics as a Service to the Earth System Grid Federation Progress Report on the Reanalysis Ensemble Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    We are extending climate analytics-as-a-service, including: (1) A high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting six major reanalysis data sets using advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based SQL and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files. (2) A Reanalysis Ensemble Service (RES) that offers a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections that are accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services Python library, CDSlib. (3) An Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to CDSLib to accommodate ESGF's Web service endpoints. This presentation will report on the overall progress of this effort, with special attention to recent enhancements that have been made to the Reanalysis Ensemble Service, including the following: - An CDSlib Python library that supports full temporal, spatial, and grid-based resolution services - A new reanalysis collections reference model to enable operator design and implementation - An enhanced library of sample queries to demonstrate and develop use case scenarios - Extended operators that enable single- and multiple reanalysis area average, vertical average, re-gridding, and trend, climatology, and anomaly computations - Full support for the MERRA-2 reanalysis and the initial integration of two additional reanalyses - A prototype Jupyter notebook-based distribution mechanism that combines CDSlib documentation with interactive use case scenarios and personalized project management - Prototyped uncertainty quantification services that combine ensemble products with comparative observational products - Convenient, one-stop shopping for commonly used data products from multiple reanalyses, including basic subsetting and arithmetic operations over the data and extractions of trends, climatologies, and anomalies - The ability to compute and visualize multiple reanalysis intercomparisons

  9. Making Reanalysis Intercomparison Easy: Using the New Collaborative REAnalysis Technical Environment (CREATE) to Wrangle Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, G. L.; Carriere, L.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Hertz, J.; Nadeau, D.; McInerney, M.

    2015-12-01

    After the first NCEP reanalysis was made available to the community, many researchers collected their own copy and used it for model evaluation. Today we have multiple reanalyses available but each has its own interface and data organization. At the NASA GSFC Climate Model Data Services, in collaboration with others, we have reformatted selections of the major global reanalyses to match the CMIP5 archive on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and provided a common interface for users. To date, we have prepared the ERA-Interim, MERRA, CFSR, JRA-25, and 20CR. The data have been prepared with two major objectives, 1) to improve the various reanalyses through intercomparison and 2) to assist with climate model validation of the dynamical state fields. This project in conjunction with obs4MIPs provides the community with the latest data customized with a standard interface. I will demonstrate how to take advantage of this new reanalysis resource and present a case study showing the how the partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes differ during the 2010 Russian heat wave and the implications of the differences.

  10. Evaluating the Reliability of Reanalysis as a Substitute for Observational Data in Large-scale Agricultural Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotter, M.; Ruane, A. C.; Moyer, E. J.; Elliott, J. W.

    2014-12-01

    Future projections of food security require historical agricultural assessments to validate, improve, and understand the limitations of yield estimates. Poor observational climate networks often force historical assessments to rely on reanalysis data- climate model output nudged by observations- for inputs to crop models. However, agricultural yields are sensitive to changes in precipitation, and since reanalysis products generally use little or no observational precipitation in the data assimilation process, its use may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies do not systematically assess whether reanalysis data is sufficient or data measurements are required. We test the reliability of reanalysis data for agricultural analyses with simulations of maize yields in the U.S., where observational data are extensive. We drive the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model with climate inputs from a combination of data sources: bias- and unbias-corrected reanalyses, and observation-based precipitation and solar radiation. We find that driving DSSAT with reanalysis precipitation produces unreliable yield estimates, but driving it with reanalysis bias-corrected with monthly observations is more robust. Bias corrections do require observational data, but gathering reliable monthly data may be easier than gathering daily data. The approach is therefore promising for data-poor regions where observational precipitation is less available and existing data is unreliable. The priority for climate monitoring networks may not be in daily records but instead in lower-cost observational systems that estimate data over coarser temporal resolutions.

  11. Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gonzalez-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    The growing share of electricity production from solar and mainly wind resources constantly increases the stochastic nature of the power system. Modelling the high share of renewable energy sources and in particular wind power - crucially depends on the adequate representation of the intermittency...... simulate wind speeds at higher spatial resolution (up to 1 x 1 km) than a reanalysis (generally, ranging from about 25 km to 70 km), they require high computational resources and massive storage systems: therefore, the most common alternative is to use the reanalysis data. However, local wind features...

  12. A 10-year global gridded Aerosol Optical Thickness Reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Zhang, J.; Westphal, D. L.; Campbell, J. R.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D.; Hyer, E. J.; Sessions, W.; Shi, Y.; Turk, J.

    2013-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need of a best-available fused product on a regular grid for numerous climate and applied applications. Remote sensing and modeling technologies have now advanced to a point where aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers. It is inevitable that, like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see heavy use in the near future. A first long term, 2003-2012 global 1x1 degree and 6-hourly aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product has been generated. The goal of this effort is not only for climate applications, but to generate a dataset that can be used by the US Navy to understand operationally hindering aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and application of electro-optical technologies. The reanalysis utilizes Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled collection 5 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) AOD with minor corrections from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRaditometer (MISR). A subset of this product includes Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) lidar assimilation since its launch in mid-2006. Surface aerosol sources, including dust and smoke, in the aerosol model have been regionally tuned so that fine and coarse mode AOTs best match those resolve by ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). The AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT is then used to adjust other aerosol processes, eg., sources, dry deposition, etc. Aerosol wet deposition is constrained with satellite-retrieved precipitation. The final AOT reanalysis is shown to exhibit good agreement with AERONET. Here we review the development of the reanalysis and consider issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses. Considerations are also made for extending such work

  13. Assessment of intraseasonal variabilities in China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Min; ZHOU Lei; FU Hongli; JIANG Lianghong; ZHANG Xiangming

    2016-01-01

    A regional reanalysis product—China Ocean Reanalysis (CORA)—has been developed for the China's seas and the adjacent areas. In this study, the intraseasonal variabilities (ISVs) in CORA are assessed by comparing with observations and two other reanalysis products (ECCO2 and SODA). CORA shows a better performance in capturing the intraseasonal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the intraseasonal sea surface heights (SSHs) than ECCO2 and SODA do, probably due to its high resolution, stronger response to the intraseasonal forcing in the atmosphere (especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation), and more available regional data for assimilation. But at the subsurface, the ISVs in CORA are likely to be weaker than reality, which is probably attributed to rare observational data for assimilation and weak diapycnal eddy diffusivity in the CORA model. According to the comparison results, CORA is a good choice for the study related to variabilities at the surface, but cares have to be taken for the study focusing on the subsurface processes.

  14. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D. Reeves

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available We describe here a new method for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. L* (pronounced L-star is directly proportional to the integral of the magnetic flux contained within the surface defined by a charged particle moving in the Earth's geomagnetic field. Under adiabatic changes to the geomagnetic field L* is a conserved quantity, while under quasi-adiabatic fluctuations diffusion (with respect to a particle's L* is the primary term in equations of particle dynamics. In particular the equations of motion for the very energetic particles that populate the Earth's radiation belts are most commonly expressed by diffusion in three dimensions: L*, energy (or momentum, and pitch angle (the dot product of velocity and the magnetic field vector. Expressing dynamics in these coordinates reduces the dimensionality of the problem by referencing the particle distribution functions to values at the magnetic equatorial point of a magnetic "drift shell" (or L-shell irrespective of local time (or longitude. While the use of L* aids in simplifying the equations of motion, practical applications such as space weather forecasting using realistic geomagnetic fields require sophisticated magnetic field models that, in turn, require computationally intensive numerical integration. Typically a single L* calculation can require on the order of 105 calls to a magnetic field model and each point in the simulation domain and each calculated pitch angle has a different value of L*. We describe here the development and validation of a neural network surrogate model for calculating L* in sophisticated geomagnetic field models with a high degree of fidelity at computational speeds that are millions of times faster than direct numerical field line mapping and integration. This new surrogate model has applications to real-time radiation belt forecasting, analysis of data sets

  15. Decadal reanalysis of biogeochemical indicators and fluxes in the North West European shelf-sea ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciavatta, S.; Kay, S.; Saux-Picart, S.; Butenschön, M.; Allen, J. I.

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill, confidence, and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model simulation of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large data set of in situ observations for 10 ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, and oxygen), ˜0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, and silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (˜0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 325,000 and 365,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were vulnerable to oxygen deficiency potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36 and 46 Tg C yr-1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output data set can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.

  16. Chemistry Simulations using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis with the GMI CTM and Replay in Support of the Atmospheric Composition Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oman, Luke D.; Strahan, Susan E.

    2017-01-01

    Simulations using reanalysis meteorological fields have long been used to understand the causes of atmospheric composition change in the recent past. Using the new MERRA-2 reanalysis, we are conducting chemistry simulations to create products covering 1980-2016 for the atmospheric composition community. These simulations use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemical mechanism in two different models: the GMI Chemical Transport Model (CTM) and the GEOS-5 model in Replay mode. Replay mode means an integration of the GEOS-5 general circulation model that is incrementally adjusted each time step toward the MERRA-2 reanalysis. The GMI CTM is a 1 deg x 1.25 deg simulation and the MERRA-2 GMI Replay simulation uses the native MERRA-2 grid of approximately 1/2 deg horizontal resolution on the cubed sphere. A specialized set of transport diagnostics is included in both runs to better understand trace gas transport and its variability in the recent past.

  17. Statistical Modeling of Sea Ice Concentration Using Satellite Imagery and Climate Reanalysis Data in the Barents and Kara Seas, 1979–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jihye Ahn

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Extensive sea ice over Arctic regions is largely involved in heat, moisture, and momentum exchanges between the atmosphere and ocean. Some previous studies have been conducted to develop statistical models for the status of Arctic sea ice and showed considerable possibilities to explain the impacts of climate changes on the sea ice extent. However, the statistical models require improvements to achieve better predictions by incorporating techniques that can deal with temporal variation of the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate factors. In this paper, we describe the statistical approaches by ordinary least squares (OLS regression and a time-series method for modeling sea ice concentration using satellite imagery and climate reanalysis data for the Barents and Kara Seas during 1979–2012. The OLS regression model could summarize the overall climatological characteristics in the relationships between sea ice concentration and climate variables. We also introduced autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models because the sea ice concentration is such a long-range dataset that the relationships may not be explained by a single equation of the OLS regression. Temporally varying relationships between sea ice concentration and the climate factors such as skin temperature, sea surface temperature, total column liquid water, total column water vapor, instantaneous moisture flux, and low cloud cover were modeled by the ARIMA method, which considerably improved the prediction accuracies. Our method may also be worth consideration when forecasting future sea ice concentration by using the climate data provided by general circulation models (GCM.

  18. LANL* V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Koller

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe here a new method for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. L* (pronounced L-star is directly proportional to the integral of the magnetic flux contained within the surface defined by a charged particle moving in the Earth's geomagnetic field. Under adiabatic changes to the geomagnetic field L* is a conserved quantity, while under quasi-adiabatic fluctuations diffusion (with respect to a particle's L* is the primary term in equations of particle dynamics. In particular the equations of motion for the very energetic particles that populate the Earth's radiation belts are most commonly expressed by diffusion in three dimensions: L*, energy (or momentum, and pitch angle (the dot product of velocity and the magnetic field vector. Expressing dynamics in these coordinates reduces the dimensionality of the problem by referencing the particle distribution functions to values at the magnetic equatorial point of a magnetic "drift shell" (or L-shell irrespective of local time (or longitude. While the use of L* aids in simplifying the equations of motion, practical applications such as space weather forecasting using realistic geomagnetic fields require sophisticated magnetic field models that, in turn, require computationally intensive numerical integration. Typically a single L* calculation can require on the order of 105 calls to a magnetic field model and each point in the simulation domain and each calculated pitch angle has a different value of L*. We describe here the development and validation of a neural network surrogate model for calculating L* in sophisticated geomagnetic field models with a high degree of fidelity at computational speeds that are millions of times faster than direct numerical field line mapping and integration. This new surrogate model has

  19. Assimilating atmosphere reanalysis in coupled data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huaran; Lu, Feiyu; Liu, Zhengyu; Liu, Yun; Zhang, Shaoqing

    2016-06-01

    This paper tests the idea of substituting the atmospheric observations with atmospheric reanalysis when setting up a coupled data assimilation system. The paper focuses on the quantification of the effects on the oceanic analysis resulted from this substitution and designs four different assimilation schemes for such a substitution. A coupled Lorenz96 system is constructed and an ensemble Kalman filter is adopted. The atmospheric reanalysis and oceanic observations are assimilated into the system and the analysis quality is compared to a benchmark experiment where both atmospheric and oceanic observations are assimilated. Four schemes are designed for assimilating the reanalysis and they differ in the generation of the perturbed observation ensemble and the representation of the error covariance matrix. The results show that when the reanalysis is assimilated directly as independent observations, the root-mean-square error increase of oceanic analysis relative to the benchmark is less than 16% in the perfect model framework; in the biased model case, the increase is less than 22%. This result is robust with sufficient ensemble size and reasonable atmospheric observation quality (e.g., frequency, noisiness, and density). If the observation is overly noisy, infrequent, sparse, or the ensemble size is insufficiently small, the analysis deterioration caused by the substitution is less severe since the analysis quality of the benchmark also deteriorates significantly due to worse observations and undersampling. The results from different assimilation schemes highlight the importance of two factors: accurate representation of the error covariance of the reanalysis and the temporal coherence along each ensemble member, which are crucial for the analysis quality of the substitution experiment.

  20. First Results from The Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D. C.; Anderson, D. M.; Tardif, R.; Steiger, N. J.; Perkins, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    Paleoclimate proxies provide the only measured record of Earth's climate history, but they are noisy and sparse in space and time. Climate model simulations provide dynamically consistent spatial fields, but lack a direct connection to specific climate states prior to the instrumental record. Paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) provides an optimally weighted estimate of the climate state from these two sources of information based on their error characteristics. The Last Millennium Climate Reanalysis Project (LMR) uses an ensemble-based PDA method and annually-resolved proxy records to reconstruct Earth's climate for the past 1000 years on a regular latitude--longitude grid. First results of the LMR project are reported here. Proxy records used in the first LMR reconstructions include: trees (ring width and wood density), corals (d18O and luminescence), ice cores (d18O), and a small number of sediment and speleothem records. A component of the data assimilation approach that distinguishes it from other techniques concerns the use of proxy system models to estimate the proxy from climate variables from a model simulation. Proxies are linearly related to 2-meter air temperature in a calibration dataset. Given a prior estimate of the climate from a model (here, a randomly sampled 1000-year control integration of CCSM4), we estimate the proxy value from the linear relationship (derived independently from the model). LMR analyses are compared against both existing gridded reanalysis records and withheld proxy records. Results show a cooling trend in global-mean air temperature during 1000-1900 CE, which derives primarily from cooling of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, offset by weak tropical warming. There is no evidence of a Medieval Climate Anomaly. During the 20th century, the LMR estimate of the global-mean air temperature compares very closely with other reanalysis products. Skill appears insensitive to the calibration dataset used to derive the proxy system

  1. High-resolution dynamical downscaling of reanalysis data and coupling to a distributed hydrological model in high alpine terrain - a case study in the Berchtesgaden Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warscher, Michael; Wagner, Sven; Laux, Patrick; Smiatek, Gerhard; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-04-01

    High-resolution dynamical downscaling of ERA-Interim reanalysis data is performed for the high alpine region of the Berchtesgaden Alps using the regional climate model (RCM) WRF. The spatial resolutions of the two nested RCM model domains are 15 km and 5 km respectively. The RCM data is subsequently coupled to the distributed hydrological model (HM) WaSiM using several bias correction methods. A gridded observation dataset (REGNIE, German Weather Service - DWD), meteorological data from a dense station network in the region, and runoff gauge data are used to validate the RCM and HM results. The RCM results of both model domains as well as the forcing data are compared to observations on an hourly, daily and monthly basis. The focus is on the variables necessary to force the HM, which are temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed and global radiation. The comparisons reveal that the high spatial resolution of 5 km is necessary to reproduce small scale spatial variations in the complex alpine terrain. The RCM simulations show an added value compared to the forcing atmospheric data by improving absolute values and temporal dynamics of the meteorological variables, especially for precipitation. However, it is shown that the spatial resolution is still not sufficient to cover and reproduce all spatial heterogeneities in the catchment, and that there are still biases in the RCM data. Therefore, several statistical bias correction methods are used to correct the RCM data for biases and elevation effects. The HM is subsequently forced using the corrected data, and model results are compared to runoff gauge data. The results show that regional dynamical downscaling in alpine regions has to be performed in very high spatial resolutions in order to reproduce small scale spatial variations and to reduce model biases. Despite these improvements, subsequent bias correction of the RCM data is still necessary to facilitate meaningful hydrological predictions.

  2. Development and evaluation of a high-resolution reanalysis of the East Australian Current region using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerry, Colette; Powell, Brian; Roughan, Moninya; Oke, Peter

    2016-10-01

    As with other Western Boundary Currents globally, the East Australian Current (EAC) is highly variable making it a challenge to model and predict. For the EAC region, we combine a high-resolution state-of-the-art numerical ocean model with a variety of traditional and newly available observations using an advanced variational data assimilation scheme. The numerical model is configured using the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS 3.4) and takes boundary forcing from the BlueLink ReANalysis (BRAN3). For the data assimilation, we use an Incremental Strong-Constraint 4-Dimensional Variational (IS4D-Var) scheme, which uses the model dynamics to perturb the initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, and boundary conditions, such that the modelled ocean state better fits and is in balance with the observations. This paper describes the data assimilative model configuration that achieves a significant reduction of the difference between the modelled solution and the observations to give a dynamically consistent "best estimate" of the ocean state over a 2-year period. The reanalysis is shown to represent both assimilated and non-assimilated observations well. It achieves mean spatially averaged root mean squared (rms) residuals with the observations of 7.6 cm for sea surface height (SSH) and 0.4 °C for sea surface temperature (SST) over the assimilation period. The time-mean rms residual for subsurface temperature measured by Argo floats is a maximum of 0.9 °C between water depths of 100 and 300 m and smaller throughout the rest of the water column. Velocities at several offshore and continental shelf moorings are well represented in the reanalysis with complex correlations between 0.8 and 1 for all observations in the upper 500 m. Surface radial velocities from a high-frequency radar array are assimilated and the reanalysis provides surface velocity estimates with complex correlations with observed velocities of 0.8-1 across the radar footprint. A comparison with

  3. Extreme warming in the NE Atlantic in the winter period 2002-2012 - an analysis with the regional atmospheric model COSMO-CLM and the Arctic System Reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohnemann, Svenja; Heinemann, Guenther; Gutjahr, Oliver; Bromwich, David H.

    2016-04-01

    The high-resolution atmospheric model COSMO-CLM (CCLM, German Meteorological Service) is used to simulate the 2m-temperature and the boundary layer structures in the Arctic with focus on the NE Atlantic section the winter periods (Nov-Apr) between 2002 and 2015. The CCLM simulations have a horizontal resolution of 15 km for the whole Arctic. The comparable Arctic System Reanalysis data (ASR, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center), which has been optimized for the Arctic, are available for the same time period with a horizontal resolution of 30 km. In addition, climatological data from Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) stations are used as verification. The comparison between the CCLM simulations and the ASR data shows a high agreement. Also the verification of both data sets with AWS and Era-Interim data shows a very high correlation for the air temperature. Slight differences between CCLM and ASR are recognizable in the extreme values as CCLM has the better ice information assimilated and the higher resolution during simulations. Time series of monthly mean based 2m-temperature indicate an enormous increase for the single months for the NE Atlantic and especially the region around the Siberian Island Novaya Zemlya. For example the CCLM March increase amounts up to 16 °C for the regional maximum for the period 2002-2012. The strong increase is mainly reducible to the decreasing sea ice situation in that region during the same time.

  4. Information Model for Product Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    焦国方; 刘慎权

    1992-01-01

    The Key problems in product modeling for integrated CAD ∥CAM systems are the information structures and representations of products.They are taking more and more important roles in engineering applications.With the investigation on engineering product information and from the viewpoint of industrial process,in this paper,the information models are proposed and the definitions of the framework of product information are given.And then,the integration and the consistence of product information are discussed by introucing the entity and its instance.As a summary,the information structures described in this paper have many advantage and natures helpful in engineering design.

  5. Establishing Permafrost Temperature Data Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanovsky, V. E.; Sazonova, T. S.; Tipenko, G. S.

    2003-12-01

    Permafrost has received much attention recently because surface temperatures are rising in most permafrost areas of the earth, bringing permafrost to the edge of widespread thawing and degradation. The thawing of permafrost that already occurs at the southern limits of the permafrost zone can generate dramatic changes in ecosystems and in infrastructure performance. All observed and predicted changes in permafrost stress the necessity to monitor its dynamics (particularly its temperature) for timely assessment and predictions of the possible negative impacts of permafrost degradation on ecosystems and infrastructure. The effects of human-induced disturbances will also be enhanced with climate warming. Permafrost temperature data reanalysis should be included as a very important component in the recently developing within the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) of GCOS/GTOS WMO system for comprehensive monitoring of permafrost temperatures. In this modeling method that was developed at the Permafrost Lab of the Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, variations in the air temperature and snow cover thickness and properties are the driving forces of the permafrost temperature dynamics. The model is calibrated for a specific site using measured permafrost and active layer temperatures (usually several years of available data are used) and data from the closest meteorological station for the same time interval. The calibrated model can then be applied to the entire period of meteorological records at this station, producing a time series of permafrost temperature changes. The same calibrated model can be applied for predictions of the future permafrost dynamics when some future climate change scenario is used as input data. The historical permafrost data from the Barrow Permafrost Observatory provide a unique opportunity to independently test our model and modeling results. One of the best examples of such historical data set is the

  6. Product and Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

    This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models. These ...

  7. Product Platform Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus

    on the notion that reuse and encapsulation of platform elements are fundamental characteristics of a product platform. Reuse covers the desire to reuse and share certain assets across a family of products and/or across generations of products. Product design solutions and principles are often regarded...... as important assets in a product platform, yet activities, working patterns, processes and knowledge can also be reused in a platform approach. Encapsulation is seen as a process in which the different elements of a platform are grouped into well defined and self-contained units which are decoupled from each......This PhD thesis has the title Product Platform Modelling. The thesis is about product platforms and visual product platform modelling. Product platforms have gained an increasing attention in industry and academia in the past decade. The reasons are many, yet the increasing globalisation...

  8. Approximate Reanalysis in Topology Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded; Bendsøe, Martin P.; Sigmund, Ole

    2009-01-01

    In the nested approach to structural optimization, most of the computational effort is invested in the solution of the finite element analysis equations. In this study, the integration of an approximate reanalysis procedure into the framework of topology optimization of continuum structures...

  9. Product and Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cameron, Ian T.; Gani, Rafiqul

    This book covers the area of product and process modelling via a case study approach. It addresses a wide range of modelling applications with emphasis on modelling methodology and the subsequent in-depth analysis of mathematical models to gain insight via structural aspects of the models....... These approaches are put into the context of life cycle modelling, where multiscale and multiform modelling is increasingly prevalent in the 21st century. The book commences with a discussion of modern product and process modelling theory and practice followed by a series of case studies drawn from a variety...... to biotechnology applications, food, polymer and human health application areas. The book highlights to important nature of modern product and process modelling in the decision making processes across the life cycle. As such it provides an important resource for students, researchers and industrial practitioners....

  10. Comparative study between ERA-20C and ERA INTERIM reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krisztina Balázs, Zita; Ihász, István

    2016-04-01

    of climate modelling and reanalysis, because as our results point out these miscalculations and uncertainties, they support the development of new reanalysis products.

  11. Models for Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speiser, Bob; Walter, Chuck

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores how models can support productive thinking. For us a model is a "thing", a tool to help make sense of something. We restrict attention to specific models for whole-number multiplication, hence the wording of the title. They support evolving thinking in large measure through the ways their users redesign them. They assume new…

  12. Downscaling reanalysis data to high-resolution variables above a glacier surface (Cordillera Blanca, Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofer, Marlis; Mölg, Thomas; Marzeion, Ben; Kaser, Georg

    2010-05-01

    month and time of day, ranging from 0 to 0.8, but the mixed-field predictors generally perform better than the single-field predictors. At all time scales, the ESD model shows added value against two simple reference models; (i) the direct use of reanalysis grid point values, and (ii) mean diurnal and seasonal cycles over the calibration period. The ESD model forecast 1960 to 2008 clearly reflects interannual variability related to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, but is sensitive to the chosen predictor type. So far, we have not assessed the performance of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data against other reanalysis products. The developed ESD model is computationally cheap and applicable wherever measurements are available for model calibration.

  13. Evaluation of representativeness of near-surface winds in station measurements, global and regional reanalysis for Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaspar, Frank; Kaiser-Weiss, Andrea K.; Heene, Vera; Borsche, Michael; Keller, Jan

    2015-04-01

    Within the preparation activities for a European COPERNICUS Climate Change Service (C3S) several ongoing research projects analyse the potential of global and regional model-based climate reanalyses for applications. A user survey in the FP7-project CORE-CLIMAX revealed that surface wind (10 m) is among the most frequently used parameters of global reanalysis products. The FP7 project UERRA (Uncertainties in Ensembles of Regional Re-Analysis) has the focus on regional European reanalysis and the associated uncertainties, also from a user perspective. Especially in the field of renewable energy planning and production there is a need for climatological information across all spatial scales, i.e., from climatology at a certain site to the spatial scale of national or continental renewable energy production. Here, we focus on a comparison of wind measurements of the Germany's meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) with global reanalyses of ECWMF and a regional reanalysis for Europe based on DWD's NWP-model COSMO (performed by the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research, University of Bonn). Reanalyses can provide valuable additional information on larger scale variability, e.g. multi-annual variation over Germany. However, changes in the observing system, model errors and biases have to be carefully considered. On the other hand, the ground-based observation networks partly suffer from change of the station distribution, changes in instrumentation, measurements procedures and quality control as well as local changes which might modify their spatial representativeness. All these effects might often been unknown or hard to characterize, although plenty of the meta-data information has been recorded for the German stations. One focus of the presentation will be the added-value of the regional reanalysis.

  14. An 11-year global gridded aerosol optical thickness reanalysis (v1.0) for atmospheric and climate sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Peng; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Jianglong; Hogan, Timothy F.; Hyer, Edward J.; Curtis, Cynthia A.; Hegg, Dean A.; Shi, Yingxi; Campbell, James R.; Rubin, Juli I.; Sessions, Walter R.; Turk, F. Joseph; Walker, Annette L.

    2016-04-01

    While stand alone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need in numerous atmospheric and climate applications for a fused product on a regular grid. Aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers, and like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see significant use in the near future. Here we present a standardized 2003-2013 global 1 × 1° and 6-hourly modal aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product. This data set can be applied to basic and applied Earth system science studies of significant aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and electro-optical propagation and sensor performance, among other uses. This paper describes the science of how to develop and score an aerosol reanalysis product. This reanalysis utilizes a modified Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled retrievals of AOT from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra. The aerosol source functions, including dust and smoke, were regionally tuned to obtain the best match between the model fine- and coarse-mode AOTs and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOTs. Other model processes, including deposition, were tuned to minimize the AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT. Aerosol wet deposition in the tropics is driven with satellite-retrieved precipitation, rather than the model field. The final reanalyzed fine- and coarse-mode AOT at 550 nm is shown to have good agreement with AERONET observations, with global mean root mean square error around 0.1 for both fine- and coarse-mode AOTs. This paper includes a discussion of issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses, considerations for extending such a reanalysis outside of the NASA A-Train era, and examples of how

  15. Development studies towards an 11-year global gridded aerosol optical thickness reanalysis for climate and applied applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, P.; Reid, J. S.; Westphal, D. L.; Zhang, J.; Hogan, T. F.; Hyer, E. J.; Curtis, C. A.; Hegg, D. A.; Shi, Y.; Campbell, J. R.; Rubin, J. I.; Sessions, W. R.; Turk, F. J.; Walker, A. L.

    2015-12-01

    While standalone satellite and model aerosol products see wide utilization, there is a significant need in numerous climate and applied applications for a fused product on a regular grid. Aerosol data assimilation is an operational reality at numerous centers, and like meteorological reanalyses, aerosol reanalyses will see significant use in the near future. Here we present a standardized 2003-2013 global 1° × 1° and 6 hourly modal aerosol optical thickness (AOT) reanalysis product. This dataset can be applied to basic and applied earth system science studies of significant aerosol events, aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction, and electro-optical propagation and sensor performance, among other uses. This paper describes the science of how to develop and score an aerosol reanalysis product. This reanalysis utilizes a modified Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System (NAAPS) at its core and assimilates quality controlled retrievals of AOT from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on Terra and Aqua and the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) on Terra. The aerosol source functions, including dust and smoke, were regionally tuned to obtain the best match between the model fine and coarse mode AOTs and the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOTs. Other model processes, including deposition, were tuned to minimize the AOT difference between the model and satellite AOT. Aerosol wet deposition in the tropics is driven with satellite retrieved precipitation, rather than the model field. The final reanalyzed fine and coarse mode AOT at 550 nm is shown to have good agreement with AERONET observations, with global mean root mean square error around 0.1 for both fine and coarse mode AOTs. This paper includes a discussion of issues particular to aerosol reanalyses that make them distinct from standard meteorological reanalyses, considerations for extending such a reanalysis outside of the NASA A-Train era, and examples of how the

  16. Modelling Retail Floorspace Productivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.R. Thurik (Roy); P. Kooiman

    1986-01-01

    textabstractThis research note presents a "switching regime" model to investigate the impact of environmental factors on floorspace productivity of individual retail stores. The model includes independent supply and demand functions, which are incorporated within a sales maximizing framework. Unlike

  17. Symbolic Dynamics of Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, J. W.; Dickens, P. M.

    2003-12-01

    Symbolic dynamics1 is the study of sequences of symbols belonging to a discrete set of elements, the most commmon example being a sequence of ones and zeroes. Often the set of symbols is derived from a timeseries of a continuous variable through the introduction of a partition function--a process called symbolization. Symbolic dynamics has been used widely in the physical sciences; a geophysical example being the application of C1 and C2 complexity2 to hourly precipitation station data3. The C1 and C2 complexities are computed by examining subsequences--or words--of fixed length L in the limit of large values of L. Recent advances in information theory have led to techniques focused on the growth rate of the Shannon entropy and its asymptotic behavior in the limit of long words--levels of entropy convergence4. The result is a set of measures one can use to quantify the amount of memory stored in the sequence, whether or not an observer is able to synchronize to the sequence, and with what confidence it may be predicted. These techniques may also be used to uncover periodic behavior in the sequence. We are currently applying complexity theory and levels of entropy convergence to gridpoint timeseries from the NCAR/NCEP 50-year reanalysis5. Topics to be discussed include: a brief introduction to symbolic dynamics; a description of the partition function/symbolization strategy; a discussion of C1 and C2 complexity and entropy convergence rates and their utility; and example applications of these techniques to NCAR/NCEP 50-reanalyses gridpoint timeseries, resulting in maps of C1 and C2 complexities and entropy convergence rates. Finally, we will discuss how these results may be used to validate climate models. 1{Hao, Bai-Lin, Elementary Symbolic Dynamics and Chaos in Dissipative Systems, Wold Scientific, Singapore (1989)} 2{d'Alessandro, G. and Politi, A., Phys. Rev. Lett., 64, 1609-1612 (1990).} 3{Elsner, J. and Tsonis, A., J. Atmos. Sci., 50, 400-405 (1993).} 4

  18. Selecting the optimal method to calculate daily global reference potential evaporation from CFSR reanalysis data for application in a hydrological model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. C. Sperna Weiland

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Potential evaporation (PET is one of the main inputs of hydrological models. Yet, there is limited consensus on which PET equation is most applicable in hydrological climate impact assessments. In this study six different methods to derive global scale reference PET daily time series from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR data are compared: Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor and original and re-calibrated versions of the Hargreaves and Blaney-Criddle method. The calculated PET time series are (1 evaluated against global monthly Penman-Monteith PET time series calculated from CRU data and (2 tested on their usability for modeling of global discharge cycles.

    A major finding is that for part of the investigated basins the selection of a PET method may have only a minor influence on the resulting river flow. Within the hydrological model used in this study the bias related to the PET method tends to decrease while going from PET, AET and runoff to discharge calculations. However, the performance of individual PET methods appears to be spatially variable, which stresses the necessity to select the most accurate and spatially stable PET method. The lowest root mean squared differences and the least significant deviations (95% significance level between monthly CFSR derived PET time series and CRU derived PET were obtained for a cell-specific re-calibrated Blaney-Criddle equation. However, results show that this re-calibrated form is likely to be unstable under changing climate conditions and less reliable for the calculation of daily time series. Although often recommended, the Penman-Monteith equation applied to the CFSR data did not outperform the other methods in a evaluation against PET derived with the Penman-Monteith equation from CRU data. In arid regions (e.g. Sahara, central Australia, US deserts, the equation resulted in relatively low PET values and, consequently, led to relatively high discharge values for dry basins (e

  19. Distributing reanalysis data on the Earth System Grid Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, G. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Dee, D. P.; Compo, G.; Onogi, K.; Saha, S.; Carriere, L.; Nadeau, D.; Williams, D. N.

    2013-12-01

    Reanalysis has become an important tool for use by the atmospheric science community and the data available from the various reanalysis centers is offered in a variety of formats and structure. This variety among the reanalysis efforts makes intercomparison a laborious process. In order to make the data more easily accessible, a new community project called ana4MIPs will be available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) distributed archive and will include selections from NASA/MERRA, NCEP/CFSR, ECMWF-Interim, NOAA/20CR, and JMA/JRA-25. The data is formatted in a similar way that CMIP5 and will be distributed though ESGF with accompanying technical documents. The data adhere to all the standards used by CMIP5 allowing easy comparison among the various reanalyses and between reanalyses and CMIP5 model output. New analysis packages such as the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) provide an efficient interface to the data and offer a variety of specialized routines for comprehensive analysis and comparison. Access and use of the new interface to reanalysis will be discussed along with examples using the reformatted reanalysis data.

  20. Quality assessment of the TOPAZ4 reanalysis in the Arctic over the period 1991-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiping; Bertino, Laurent; Counillon, François; Lisæter, Knut A.; Sakov, Pavel

    2017-02-01

    Long dynamical atmospheric reanalyses are widely used for climate studies, but data-assimilative reanalyses of ocean and sea ice in the Arctic are less common. TOPAZ4 is a coupled ocean and sea ice data assimilation system for the North Atlantic and the Arctic that is based on the HYCOM ocean model and the ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation method using 100 dynamical members. A 23-year reanalysis has been completed for the period 1991-2013 and is the multi-year physical product in the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Arctic Marine Forecasting Center (ARC MFC). This study presents its quantitative quality assessment, compared to both assimilated and unassimilated observations available in the whole Arctic region, in order to document the strengths and weaknesses of the system for potential users. It is found that TOPAZ4 performs well with respect to near-surface ocean variables, but some limitations appear in the interior of the ocean and for ice thickness, where observations are sparse. In the course of the reanalysis, the skills of the system are improving as the observation network becomes denser, in particular during the International Polar Year. The online bias estimation successfully maintains a low bias in our system. In addition, statistics of the reduced centered random variables (RCRVs) confirm the reliability of the ensemble for most of the assimilated variables. Occasional discontinuities of these statistics are caused by the changes of the input data sets or the data assimilation settings, but the statistics remain otherwise stable throughout the reanalysis, regardless of the density of observations. Furthermore, no data type is severely less dispersed than the others, even though the lack of consistently reprocessed observation time series at the beginning of the reanalysis has proven challenging.

  1. Recent advances in the Mercator-Ocean reanalysis system: Application to an Arctic configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testut, Charles-Emmanuel; Garric, Gilles; Chanut, Jérome; Bricaud, Clément; Smith, Greg

    2015-04-01

    In the framework of the Myocean EU (FP7 and Horizon 2020) funded projects , Mercator Ocean, the French operational oceanography center, is in charge of the development and of the production of real time analysis and forecasts and reanalysis for the global ocean at the resolution of 1/12°. The operational systems are all based on the ocean and sea ice model NEMO and the multivariate data assimilation system SAM2 (Système d'Assimilation Mercator V2). The assimilation method is a reduced order Kalman filter based on SEEK formulation with bias correction scheme for temperature and salinity and an Incremental Analysis Update. The strong need of a realistic description of the mean state and variability of the rapid changing Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas over the last decades motivated the use of the Canadian Arctic Ocean and Nordic seas configuration (CREG). This dedicated configuration at 1/12° developed by the Canadian research teams has been coupled to the multivariate data assimilation system SAM2. The objectives of this pan-Arctic platform is both to improve the sea ice assimilation method used in the Mercator Ocean and Canadian analysis and forecasting systems and to produce reanalysis over recent periods at lower numerical cost in order to prepare global higher resolution reanalysis. After a description of this Arctic reanalysis system, we present first results on the abilities of this configuration to reproduce sea ice extent and volume interannual variability without assimilation and, secondly, the impact of assimilating sea ice data on the sea ice cover with short hindcasts experiments.

  2. Incorporating "Unconscious Reanalysis" into an Incremental, Monotonic Parser

    CERN Document Server

    Sturt, P

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes an implementation based on a recent model in the psycholinguistic literature. We define a parsing operation which allows the reanalysis of dependencies within an incremental and monotonic processing architecture, and discuss search strategies for its application in a head-initial language (English) and a head-final language (Japanese).

  3. Combining multiple remote sensors with reanalysis and a radiative transfer model to assess the microphysical impact of smoke on cirrus clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kablick, G. P.

    2011-12-01

    A multi-spectral technique for retrieving properties of smoke contaminated ice clouds is evaluated. This method utilizes Earth orbiting active and passive remote sensors combined with atmospheric reanalysis and a multiple scattering, single column radiative transfer algorithm. This study focuses on a specific type of cirrus cloud that exhibits IR radiances, lidar backscatter values, color ratios and depolarization ratios comparable to thick cirrus as observed by MODIS and CALIPSO. However, the radar reflectivities as determined by CloudSat are significantly lower than expected for clouds with such large visible optical depths. This work also demonstrates the sensitivity of retrievals to a priori assumptions by using a few notable cases. Collocated data observed during the boreal fire season of 2010 is analyzed using this methodology as a first step to ascertain the impact that pyroconvection may have on ice cloud properties.

  4. Product Development Process Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1999-01-01

    The use of Concurrent Engineering and other modern methods of product development and maintenance require that a large number of time-overlapped "processes" be performed by many people. However, successfully describing and optimizing these processes are becoming even more difficult to achieve. The perspective of industrial process theory (the definition of process) and the perspective of process implementation (process transition, accumulation, and inter-operations between processes) are used to survey the method used to build one base model (multi-view) process model.

  5. Product Knowledge Modelling and Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Y.; MacCallum, K. J.; Duffy, Alex

    1996-01-01

    The term, Product Knowledge is used to refer to two related but distinct concepts; the knowledge of a specific product (Specific Product Knowledge) and the knowledge of a product domain (Product Domain Knowledge). Modelling and managing Product Knowlege is an essential part of carrying out design...... function-oriented design. Both Specific Product Knowledge and Product Domain Knowledge are modelled at two levels, a meta-model and an information-level.Following that, a computer-based scheme to manage the proposed product lknowledge models within a dynamically changing environment is presented....

  6. Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Hiroyuki

    2014-03-01

    This study evaluates and compares tropical cyclones (TCs) in state-of-the-art reanalysis data sets including the following: the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Japanese 25-year Reanalysis, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-40, Interim Reanalysis, National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA). Most of the reanalyses reproduce a reasonable global spatial distribution of observed TCs and temporal interannual variation of total TC frequency. Of the six reanalysis data sets, JRA-55 appears to be the best in terms of the following: the highest skill for spatial and temporal distribution of TC frequency of occurrence, highest TC hitting rate, lower false alarm rate, reasonable TC structure in terms of the relationship between maximum surface wind speed and sea level pressure, and higher correlation coefficients for interannual variations of TC frequency. These results also suggest that the finest-resolution reanalysis data sets, like MERRA, are not always the best in terms of TC climatology.

  7. Advanced Production Planning Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    JONES,DEAN A.; LAWTON,CRAIG R.; KJELDGAARD,EDWIN A.; WRIGHT,STEPHEN TROY; TURNQUIST,MARK A.; NOZICK,LINDA K.; LIST,GEORGE F.

    2000-12-01

    >This report describes the innovative modeling approach developed as a result of a 3-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project. The overall goal of this project was to provide an effective suite of solvers for advanced production planning at facilities in the nuclear weapons complex (NWC). We focused our development activities on problems related to operations at the DOE's Pantex Plant. These types of scheduling problems appear in many contexts other than Pantex--both within the NWC (e.g., Neutron Generators) and in other commercial manufacturing settings. We successfully developed an innovative and effective solution strategy for these types of problems. We have tested this approach on actual data from Pantex, and from Org. 14000 (Neutron Generator production). This report focuses on the mathematical representation of the modeling approach and presents three representative studies using Pantex data. Results associated with the Neutron Generator facility will be published in a subsequent SAND report. The approach to task-based scheduling described here represents a significant addition to the literature for large-scale, realistic scheduling problems in a variety of production settings.

  8. Product Knowledge Modelling and Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Y.; MacCallum, K. J.; Duffy, Alex

    1996-01-01

    The term, Product Knowledge is used to refer to two related but distinct concepts; the knowledge of a specific product (Specific Product Knowledge) and the knowledge of a product domain (Product Domain Knowledge). Modelling and managing Product Knowlege is an essential part of carrying out design...... function-oriented design. Both Specific Product Knowledge and Product Domain Knowledge are modelled at two levels, a meta-model and an information-level.Following that, a computer-based scheme to manage the proposed product lknowledge models within a dynamically changing environment is presented........A scheme is presented in this paper to model, i.e. classify, structure and formalise the product knowledge for the purpose of supporting function-oriented design. The product design specification and four types of required attributes of a specific product have been identified to form the Specific Product...

  9. Exploring hydro-meteorological drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa (1979-2014) using remote sensing and reanalysis products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awange, J. L.; Khandu; Schumacher, M.; Forootan, E.; Heck, B.

    2016-08-01

    Spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological droughts over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) are explored based on total water storage (TWS) changes derived from time-variable gravity field solutions of Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE, 2002-2014), together with those simulated by Modern Retrospective Analysis for Research Application (MERRA, 1980-2014). These hydrological extremes are then related to meteorological drought events estimated from observed monthly precipitation products of Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC, 1979-2010) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 1998-2014). The major focus of this contribution lies on the application of spatial Independent Component Analysis (sICA) to extract distinguished regions with similar rainfall and TWS with similar overall trend and seasonality. Rainfall and TWS are used to estimate Standard Precipitation Indices (SPIs) and Total Storage Deficit Indices (TSDIs), respectively that are employed to characterize frequency and intensity of hydro-meteorological droughts over GHA. Significant positive (negative) changes in monthly rainfall over Ethiopia (Sudan) between 2002 and 2010 leading to a significant increase in TWS over the central GHA region were noted in both MERRA and GRACE TWS (2002-2014). However, these trends were completely reversed in the long-term (1980-2010) records of rainfall (GPCC) and TWS (MERRA). The four independent hydrological sub-regions extracted based on the sICA (i.e., Lake Victoria Basin, Ethiopia-Sudanese border, South Sudan, and Tanzania) indicated fairly distinct temporal patterns that matched reasonably well between precipitation and TWS changes. While meteorological droughts were found to be consistent with most previous studies in all sub-regions, their impacts are clearly observed in the TWS changes resulting in multiple years of extreme hydrological droughts. Correlations between SPI and TSDI were found to be significant over Lake Victoria Basin, South

  10. Development and Assessment of the Sand Dust Prediction Model by Utilizing Microwave-Based Satellite Soil Moisture and Reanalysis Datasets in East Asian Desert Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyunglok Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available For several decades, satellite-based microwave sensors have provided valuable soil moisture monitoring in various surface conditions. We have first developed a modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD dataset by utilizing Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2, and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS soil moisture datasets in order to estimate dust outbreaks over desert areas of East Asia. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer- (MODIS- based AOD products were used as reference datasets to validate the modeled AOD (MA. The SMOS-based MA (SMOS-MA dataset showed good correspondence with observed AOD (R-value: 0.56 compared to AMSR2- and GLDAS-based MA datasets, and it overestimated AOD compared to observed AOD. The AMSR2-based MA dataset was found to underestimate AOD, and it showed a relatively low R-value (0.35 with respect to observed AOD. Furthermore, SMOS-MA products were able to simulate the short-term AOD trends, having a high R-value (0.65. The results of this study may allow us to acknowledge the utilization of microwave-based soil moisture datasets for investigation of near-real time dust outbreak predictions and short-term dust outbreak trend analysis.

  11. NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 project is using a state-of-the-art analysis/forecast system to perform data assimilation using past data from 1979 through near present....

  12. Modeling Novo Nordisk Production Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miller, Thomas Dedenroth

    1997-01-01

    This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'.......This report describes attributes of models and systems, and how models can be used for description of production systems. There are special attention on the 'Theory of Domains'....

  13. PRODUCT STRUCTURE DIGITAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.M. Sineglazov

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available  Research results of representation of product structure made by means of CADDS5 computer-aided design (CAD system, Product Data Management Optegra (PDM system and Product Life Cycle Management Wind-chill system (PLM, are examined in this work. Analysis of structure component development and its storage in various systems is carried out. Algorithms of structure transformation required for correct representation of the structure are considered. Management analysis of electronic mockup presentation of the product structure is carried out for Windchill system.

  14. An ocean data assimilation system and reanalysis of the World Ocean hydrophysical fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelenko, A. A.; Vil'fand, R. M.; Resnyanskii, Yu. D.; Strukov, B. S.; Tsyrulnikov, M. D.; Svirenko, P. I.

    2016-07-01

    A new version of the ocean data assimilation system (ODAS) developed at the Hydrometcentre of Russia is presented. The assimilation is performed following the sequential scheme analysis-forecast-analysis. The main components of the ODAS are procedures for operational observation data processing, a variational analysis scheme, and an ocean general circulation model used to estimate the first guess fields involved in the analysis. In situ observations of temperature and salinity in the upper 1400-m ocean layer obtained from various observational platforms are used as input data. In the new ODAS version, the horizontal resolution of the assimilating model and of the output products is increased, the previous 2D-Var analysis scheme is replaced by a more general 3D-Var scheme, and a more flexible incremental analysis updating procedure is introduced to correct the model calculations. A reanalysis of the main World Ocean hydrophysical fields over the 2005-2015 period has been performed using the updated ODAS. The reanalysis results are compared with data from independent sources.

  15. Accumulation over the Greenland Ice Sheet as Represented in Reanalysis Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Linling; Ola M.JOHANNESSEN; WANG Huijun; Atsumu OHMURA

    2011-01-01

    Annual precipitation,evaporation,and calculated accumulation from reanalysis model outputs have been investigated for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS),based on the common period of 1989-2001.The ERA-40 and ERA-interim reanalysis data showed better agreement with observations than do NCEP-1 and NCEP-2 reanalyses,Further,ERA-interim showed the closest spatial distribution of accunulation to the observation.Concerning temporal variations,ERA-interim showed the best correlation with precipitation observations at five synoptic stations,and the best correlation with in situ measurements of accumulationat nine ice core sites.The mean annual precipitation averaged over the whole GrIS from ERA-interim(363 mm yr-1) and mean annual accumulation (319 mm yr-1) are very close to the observations.The validation of accumulation calculated from reanalysis data against ice-core measurcments suggests that further improvements to reanalysis models are needed.

  16. AVHRR GAC SST Reanalysis Version 1 (RAN1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Ignatov

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In response to its users’ needs, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA initiated reanalysis (RAN of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR Global Area Coverage (GAC; 4 km sea surface temperature (SST data employing its Advanced Clear Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO retrieval system. Initially, AVHRR/3 data from five NOAA and two Metop satellites from 2002 to 2015 have been reprocessed. The derived SSTs have been matched up with two reference SSTs—the quality controlled in situ SSTs from the NOAA in situ Quality Monitor (iQuam and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC L4 SST analysis—and analyzed in the NOAA SST Quality Monitor (SQUAM online system. The corresponding clear-sky ocean brightness temperatures (BT in AVHRR bands 3b, 4 and 5 (centered at 3.7, 11, and 12 µm, respectively have been compared with the Community Radiative Transfer Model simulations in another NOAA online system, Monitoring of Infrared Clear-sky Radiances over Ocean for SST (MICROS. For some AVHRRs, the time series of “AVHRR minus reference” SSTs and “observed minus model” BTs are unstable and inconsistent, with artifacts in the SSTs and BTs strongly correlated. In the official “Reanalysis version 1” (RAN1, data from only five platforms—two midmorning (NOAA-17 and Metop-A and three afternoon (NOAA-16, -18 and -19—were included during the most stable periods of their operations. The stability of the SST time series was further improved using variable regression SST coefficients, similarly to how it was done in the NOAA/NASA Pathfinder version 5.2 (PFV5.2 dataset. For data assimilation applications, especially those blending satellite and in situ SSTs, we recommend bias-correcting the RAN1 SSTs using the newly developed sensor-specific error statistics (SSES, which are reported in the product files. Relative performance of RAN1 and PFV5.2 SSTs is discussed. Work is underway to improve the calibration of AVHRR/3s and

  17. High resolution re-analysis for the Baltic Sea region during 1965-2005 period

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luhamaa, Andres; Maennik, Aarne [University of Tartu, Tartu (Estonia); Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Tallinn (Estonia); Kimmel, Kaarel; Room, Rein [University of Tartu, Tartu (Estonia)

    2011-02-15

    Regional reanalysis database BaltAn65+ comprising meteorological data for Baltic Sea region for the time period 1965-2005 is described. For data assimilation and hindcasts, the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM 7.1.4 is applied, with 11 km horizontal and 60-layer vertical resolution. Reanalysis includes three-dimensional weather analysis data. Standard surface observations and meteorological soundings together with ship and buoy measurements from WMO observational network are used in analysis. Boundary fields are obtained from ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis. The BaltAn65+ can be considered as a regional refinement of ERA-40 for Baltic Sea region, providing the historical weather and climate data with enhanced spatial resolution, which is main motivation for creation of this novel reanalysis database. (orig.)

  18. Risk Modelling of Agricultural Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugrahani, E. H.

    2017-03-01

    In the real world market, agricultural commodity are imposed with fluctuating prices. This means that the price of agricultural products are relatively volatile, which means that agricultural business is a quite risky business for farmers. This paper presents some mathematical models to model such risks in the form of its volatility, based on certain assumptions. The proposed models are time varying volatility model, as well as time varying volatility with mean reversion and with seasonal mean equation models. Implementation on empirical data show that agricultural products are indeed risky.

  19. Feature Technology in Product Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xu; NING Ruxin

    2006-01-01

    A unified feature definition is proposed. Feature is form-concentrated, and can be used to model product functionalities, assembly relations, and part geometries. The feature model is given and a feature classification is introduced including functional, assembly, structural, and manufacturing features. A prototype modeling system is developed in Pro/ENGINEER that can define the assembly and user-defined form features.

  20. Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

    2016-10-01

    The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

  1. Revisiting the global surface energy budgets with maximum-entropy-production model of surface heat fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Shih-Yu; Deng, Yi; Wang, Jingfeng

    2017-09-01

    The maximum-entropy-production (MEP) model of surface heat fluxes, based on contemporary non-equilibrium thermodynamics, information theory, and atmospheric turbulence theory, is used to re-estimate the global surface heat fluxes. The MEP model predicted surface fluxes automatically balance the surface energy budgets at all time and space scales without the explicit use of near-surface temperature and moisture gradient, wind speed and surface roughness data. The new MEP-based global annual mean fluxes over the land surface, using input data of surface radiation, temperature data from National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (NASA CERES) supplemented by surface specific humidity data from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), agree closely with previous estimates. The new estimate of ocean evaporation, not using the MERRA reanalysis data as model inputs, is lower than previous estimates, while the new estimate of ocean sensible heat flux is higher than previously reported. The MEP model also produces the first global map of ocean surface heat flux that is not available from existing global reanalysis products.

  2. MASS CUSTOMIZATION and PRODUCT MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten; Malis, Martin

    2003-01-01

    to the product. Through the application of a mass customization strategy, companies have a unique opportunity to create increased customer satisfaction. In a customized production, knowledge and information have to be easily accessible since every product is a unique combination of information. If the dream...... of a customized alternative instead of a uniform mass-produced product shall become a reality, then the cross-organizational efficiency must be kept at a competitive level. This is the real challenge for mass customization. A radical restructuring of both the internal and the external knowledge management systems......When dealing with complex product models, efficient knowledge distribution is essential to obtain success. This paper describes how product models can be applied to support the knowledge distribution. The change towards individualization will radically affect the knowledge application in relation...

  3. NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), for 1979 to Present

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The North America Regional Reanalysis (NARR) Project is a reanalysis of historical observations using a 32-km version of the National Centers for Environmental...

  4. A clear-sky radiation closure study using a one-dimensional radiative transfer model and collocated satellite-surface-reanalysis data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dolinar, Erica K.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Loeb, Norman G.

    2016-11-01

    Earth's climate is largely determined by the planet's energy budget, i.e., the balance of incoming and outgoing radiation at the surface and top of atmosphere (TOA). Studies have shown that computing clear-sky radiative fluxes are strongly dependent on atmospheric state variables, such as temperature and water vapor profiles, while the all-sky fluxes are greatly influenced by the presence of clouds. NASA-modeled vertical profiles of temperature and water vapor are used to derive the surface radiation budget from Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System (CERES), which is regarded as one of the primary sources for evaluating climate change in climate models. In this study, we evaluate the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalyzed clear-sky temperature and water vapor profiles with newly generated atmospheric profiles from Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)-merged soundings and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder retrievals at three ARM sites. The temperature profiles are well replicated in MERRA-2 at all three sites, whereas tropospheric water vapor is slightly dry below 700 hPa. These profiles are then used to calculate clear-sky surface and TOA radiative fluxes from the Langley-modified Fu-Liou radiative transfer model (RTM). In order to achieve radiative closure at both the surface and TOA, the ARM-measured surface albedos and aerosol optical depths are adjusted to account for surface inhomogeneity. In general, most of the averaged RTM-calculated surface downward and TOA upward shortwave and longwave fluxes agree within 5 W/m2 of the observations, which is within the uncertainties of the ARM and CERES measurements. Yet still, further efforts are required to reduce the bias in calculated fluxes in coastal regions.

  5. Performance and quality assessment of the global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis GLORYS2V4.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garric, Gilles; Parent, Laurent; Greiner, Eric; Drévillon, Marie; Hamon, Mathieu; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Régnier, Charly; Desportes, Charles; Le Galloudec, Olivier; Bricaud, Clement; Drillet, Yann; Hernandez, Fabrice; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to give an overview of the recent upgrade of GLORYS2 (version 4 and GLORYS2V4 hereafter), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at Mercator Ocean that covers the altimetry era (1993-2015) in the framework of Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS; http://marine.copernicus.eu/). The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (¼° horizontal resolution and 75 vertical levels) with the NEMO model and driven at the surface by ERA-Interim reanalysis from ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The reanalysis system uses a multi-data and multivariate reduced order Kalman filter based on the singular extended evolutive Kalman (SEEK) filter formulation together with a 3D-VAR large scale bias correction. The assimilated observations are along-track satellite altimetry, sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration and in-situ profiles of temperature and salinity. With respect to the previous version (GLORYS2V3), GLORYS2V4 contains a number of improvements. In particular: a) new initial temperature and salinity conditions derived from EN4 data base with a better mass equilibrium with altimetry, b) the use of the updated delayed mode CORA in situ observations from CMEMS, c) a new hybrid Mean Dynamical Topography (MDT) for the assimilation scheme referenced over the 1993-2013 period, d) a better observation operator for altimetry observations for the data assimilation scheme: e) A correction of large scale ERA-Interim atmospheric surface (precipitations and radiative) fluxes as in GLORYS2V3 but towards new satellite data set f) an update of the climatological runoff data base by using the latest version of Dai's 2009 data set for the global ocean together with better account of freshwater fluxes from polar ice sheet's glaciers. The presentation will show that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects such as biases and root mean squared error and, especially in representing

  6. Evaluation of reanalysis datasets against observational soil temperature data over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kai; Zhang, Jingyong

    2017-03-01

    Soil temperature is a key land surface variable, and is a potential predictor for seasonal climate anomalies and extremes. Using observational soil temperature data in China for 1981-2005, we evaluate four reanalysis datasets, the land surface reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-Interim/Land), the second modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR), and version 2 of the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS-2.0), with a focus on 40 cm soil layer. The results show that reanalysis data can mainly reproduce the spatial distributions of soil temperature in summer and winter, especially over the east of China, but generally underestimate their magnitudes. Owing to the influence of precipitation on soil temperature, the four datasets perform better in winter than in summer. The ERA-Interim/Land and GLDAS-2.0 produce spatial characteristics of the climatological mean that are similar to observations. The interannual variability of soil temperature is well reproduced by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset in summer and by the CFSR dataset in winter. The linear trend of soil temperature in summer is well rebuilt by reanalysis datasets. We demonstrate that soil heat fluxes in April-June and in winter are highly correlated with the soil temperature in summer and winter, respectively. Different estimations of surface energy balance components can contribute to different behaviors in reanalysis products in terms of estimating soil temperature. In addition, reanalysis datasets can mainly rebuild the northwest-southeast gradient of soil temperature memory over China.

  7. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fujiwara

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR. Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979–2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets and 1958–2001 (for four reanalysis data sets, by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2–3 K for 1-year average in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to −1 K in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed

  8. Global temperature response to the major volcanic eruptions in multiple reanalysis data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, M.; Hibino, T.; Mehta, S. K.; Gray, L.; Mitchell, D.; Anstey, J.

    2015-12-01

    The global temperature responses to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982, and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are investigated using nine currently available reanalysis data sets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979-2009 (for eight reanalysis data sets) and 1958-2001 (for four reanalysis data sets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately, and common and different responses among the older and newer reanalysis data sets are highlighted for each eruption. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis data sets show strong warming signals (up to 2-3 K for 1-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to -1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis data sets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis data sets. The consistencies and differences among different reanalysis data sets provide a measure of the confidence and uncertainty in our current understanding of the volcanic response. The results of this intercomparison study may be useful for validation of climate model responses to volcanic forcing and for assessing proposed geoengineering by stratospheric

  9. Re-analysis of martian gully orientation and slope for comparison with climate model predictions of freeze-thaw and dry-ice sublimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Susan; Harrison, Tanya; Lewis, Stephen; Balme, Matthew; Soare, Richard; Britton, Andrew

    2016-04-01

    Gullies on Mars are kilometre-scale landforms, comprising an erosional alcove and channel and a terminal debris apron/fan. These landforms are similar to features on Earth carved by the flow of liquid water, or by the action of water rich debris flows. The majority gullies on Mars are believed to be (at most) ˜5 Ma old and both erosion and deposition within these features have been observed within the last 10 years of orbital observations. At present liquid water is not thermodynamically stable at the martian surface and many of the recent changes in surface morphology occur during winter and early spring, when temperatures are too low for even metastable liquid water to be produced. Therefore, researchers have proposed an alternative mechanism for gully-formation - the sublimation of solid CO2, which is deposited on the maritan surface every winter. Previous studies have revealed that gully-density and orientation varies systematically with latitude - a fact that led to the development of many climate-based hypotheses for their formation. Here, we use the global database of martian gullies and extract the orientation and slope-angle of gully-hosting-slopes. We find that gully-orientation is more even strongly controlled by latitude than previous studies, where more sparse data were used. From ˜30-40° latitude in both hemispheres, gullies are almost never found on equator-facing slopes, and polewards of 40° gullies have a tendency to be located on equator-facing slopes. We use a 1D version of the LMD Mars climate model physics to simulate surface temperature on slopes up to 35° , oriented to face north or south, for all latitudes (5° spacing), and for orbital obliquities of 5-55° . We otherwise use current orbital conditions (ellipticity, date of perihelion) and we use a constant thermal inertia of the substrate of 1000 Jm-2K-1s-1/2and a bare soil albedo of 0.2. We extracted two pieces of information from a complete annual cycle: (i) The number of hours

  10. Steps towards a consistent Climate Forecast System Reanalysis wave hindcast (1979-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stopa, Justin E.; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Huchet, Marion; Accensi, Mickael

    2017-04-01

    Surface gravity waves are being increasingly recognized as playing an important role within the climate system. Wave hindcasts and reanalysis products of long time series (>30 years) have been instrumental in understanding and describing the wave climate for the past several decades and have allowed a better understanding of extreme waves and inter-annual variability. Wave hindcasts have the advantage of covering the oceans in higher space-time resolution than possible with conventional observations from satellites and buoys. Wave reanalysis systems like ECWMF's ERA-Interim directly included a wave model that is coupled to the ocean and atmosphere, otherwise reanalysis wind fields are used to drive a wave model to reproduce the wave field in long time series. The ERA Interim dataset is consistent in time, but cannot adequately resolve extreme waves. On the other hand, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSR) wind field better resolves the extreme wind speeds, but suffers from discontinuous features in time which are due to the quantity and quality of the remote sensing data incorporated into the product. Therefore, a consistent hindcast that resolves the extreme waves still alludes us limiting our understanding of the wave climate. In this study, we systematically correct the CFSR wind field to reproduce a homogeneous wave field in time. To verify the homogeneity of our hindcast we compute error metrics on a monthly basis using the observations from a merged altimeter wave database which has been calibrated and quality controlled from 1985-2016. Before 1985 only few wave observations exist and are limited to a select number of wave buoys mostly in the North Hemisphere. Therefore we supplement our wave observations with seismic data which responds to nonlinear wave interactions created by opposing waves with nearly equal wavenumbers. Within the CFSR wave hindcast, we find both spatial and temporal discontinuities in the error metrics. The Southern Hemisphere often

  11. The MERRA-2 Aerosol Reanalysis, 1980 Onward. Part I: System Description and Data Assimilation Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randles, C. A. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; da Silva, A. M. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Buchard, V. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research/Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, Maryland; Colarco, P. R. [Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Lab, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Darmenov, A. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Govindaraju, R. [Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; Smirnov, A. [Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland; NASA Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland; Holben, B. [NASA Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, Maryland; Ferrare, R. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; Hair, J. [NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia; Shinozuka, Y. [Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Petaluma, California; NASA Ames Research Center Cooperative for Research in Earth Science and Technology, Moffett Field, California; Flynn, C. J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2017-09-01

    The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) updates NASA’s previous satellite era (1980 – onward) reanalysis system to include additional observations and improvements to the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Earth system model. As a major step towards a full Integrated Earth Systems Analysis (IESA), in addition to meteorological observations, MERRA-2 now includes assimila-tion of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from various ground- and space-based remote sensing platforms. Here, in the first of a pair of studies, we document the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation, including a description of the prognostic model (GEOS-5 coupled to the GOCART aerosol module), aerosol emissions, and the quality control of ingested observations. We provide initial validation and evaluation of the analyzed AOD fields using independent observations rom ground, aircraft, and shipborne instruments. We demonstrate the pos-itive impact of the AOD assimilation on simulated aerosols by comparing MERRA-2 aerosol fields to an identical control simulation that does not in-clude AOD assimilation. Having shown the AOD evaluation, we take a first look at aerosol-climate interactions by examining the shortwave, clear-sky aerosol direct radiative effect. In our companion paper, we evaluate and validate available MERRA-2 aerosol properties not directly impacted by the AOD assimilation (e.g. aerosol vertical distribution and absorption). Importantly, while highlighting the skill of the MERRA-2 aerosol assimilation products, both studies point out caveats that must be considered when using this new reanalysis product for future studies of aerosols and their interactions with weather and climate.

  12. Product models for the Construction industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Schiøtt

    1996-01-01

    Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given.......Different types of product models for the building sector was elaborated and grouped. Some discussion on the different models was given. The "definition" of Product models was given....

  13. Reanalysis Data Evaluation to Study Temperature Extremes in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulgina, T. M.; Gordov, E. P.

    2014-12-01

    Ongoing global climate changes are strongly pronounced in Siberia by significant warming in the 2nd half of 20th century and recent extreme events such as 2010 heat wave and 2013 flood in Russia's Far East. To improve our understanding of observed climate extremes and to provide to regional decision makers the reliable scientifically based information with high special and temporal resolution on climate state, we need to operate with accurate meteorological data in our study. However, from available 231 stations across Siberia only 130 of them present the homogeneous daily temperature time series. Sparse, station network, especially in high latitudes, force us to use simulated reanalysis data. However those might differ from observations. To obtain reliable information on temperature extreme "hot spots" in Siberia we have compared daily temperatures form ERA-40, ERA Interim, JRA-25, JRA-55, NCEP/DOE, MERRA Reanalysis, HadEX2 and GHCNDEX gridded datasets with observations from RIHMI-WDC/CDIAC dataset for overlap period 1981-2000. Data agreement was estimated at station coordinates to which reanalysis data were interpolated using modified Shepard method. Comparison of averaged over 20 year annual mean temperatures shows general agreement for Siberia excepting Baikal region, where reanalyses significantly underestimate observed temperature behavior. The annual temperatures closest to observed one were obtained from ERA-40 and ERA Interim. Furthermore, t-test results show homogeneity of these datasets, which allows one to combine them for long term time series analysis. In particular, we compared the combined data with observations for percentile-based extreme indices. In Western Siberia reanalysis and gridded data accurately reproduce observed daily max/min temperatures. For East Siberia, Lake Baikal area, ERA Interim data slightly underestimates TN90p and TX90p values. Results obtained allows regional decision-makers to get required high spatial resolution (0,25°×0

  14. An Ocean Reanalysis System for the Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Chang-Xiang; ZHU Jiang; XIE Ji-Ping

    2010-01-01

    An ocean reanalysis system for the joining area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean(AIPO)has been developed and is currently delivering reanalysis data sets for study on the air-sea interaction over AIPO and its climate variation over China in the inter-annual time scale.This system consists of a nested ocean model forced by atmospheric reanalysis,an ensemble-based multivariate ocean data assimilation system and various ocean observations.The following report describes the main components of the data assimilation system in detail.The system adopts an ensemble optimal interpolation scheme that uses a seasonal update from a free running model to estimate the background error covariance matrix.In view of the systematic biases in some observation systems,some treatments were performed on the observations before the assimilation.A coarse resolution reanalysis dataset from the system is preliminarily evaluated to demonstrate the performance of the system for the period 1992 to 2006 by comparing this dataset with other observations or reanalysis data.

  15. Dynamical Downscaling of Typhoon Vera (1959) and related Storm Surge based on JRA-55 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninomiya, J.; Takemi, T.; Mori, N.; Shibutani, Y.; Kim, S.

    2015-12-01

    Typhoon Vera in 1959 is historical extreme typhoon that caused severest typhoon damage mainly due to the storm surge up to 389 cm in Japan. Vera developed 895 hPa on offshore and landed with 929.2 hPa. There are many studies of the dynamical downscaling of Vera but it is difficult to simulate accurately because of the lack of the accuracy of global reanalysis data. This study carried out dynamical downscaling experiment of Vera using WRF downscaling forced by JRA-55 that are latest atmospheric model and reanalysis data. In this study, the reproducibility of five global reanalysis data for Typhoon Vera were compered. Comparison shows that reanalysis data doesn't have strong typhoon information except for JRA-55, so that downscaling with conventional reanalysis data goes wrong. The dynamical downscaling method for storm surge is studied very much (e.g. choice of physical model, nudging, 4D-VAR, bogus and so on). In this study, domain size and resolution of the coarse domain were considered. The coarse domain size influences the typhoon route and central pressure, and larger domain restrains the typhoon strength. The results of simulations with different domain size show that the threshold of developing restrain is whether the coarse domain fully includes the area of wind speed more than 15 m/s around the typhoon. The results of simulations with different resolution show that the resolution doesn't affect the typhoon route, and higher resolution gives stronger typhoon simulation.

  16. On the balance of precipitation and evaporation over global oceans in satellite based and reanalysis data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakan, S.; Andersson, A.; Fennig, K.; Klepp, C.; Klocke, D.; Schulz, J.

    2009-04-01

    Over the global oceans, precipitation should be smaller than evaporation and the balance should be compensated by the global runoff from land surfaces. But to which extent do satellite climatologies and reanalysis products reproduce this basic feature of the global water cycle? The Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite Data set, HOAPS-3 (www.hoaps.org), contains fields of precipitation and evaporation over the global ocean and all basic state variables needed for the derivation of the fluxes. Except for the NOAA Pathfinder SST data set, all variables are derived from SSM/I satellite data over the ice free global ocean between 1987 and 2005. Special emphasis has been put into quality control and inter-satellite calibration in order to derive the data fields as homogeneous as possible. One of the major design goals of HOAPS was to provide a data set that is based exclusively on retrieval procedures which avoid any additional model or reanalysis input. On a global scale, the average evaporation since 1987 exceeds precipitation rate over the oceans in HOAPS-3 systematically, with almost negligible yearly cycle and small monthly variations. While the globally averaged precipitation time series does not exhibit any significant trend over the study period, evaporation shows a continuous increase during this time. Regionally, this increase concentrates in the subtropics and is, together with some reduction in precipitation, consistent with a strengthening of the Hadley circulation during the observation period. These results are compared with similar data fields of the same period from various satellite climatologies to insure the consistency of our results and to the NCEP and ERA40 as well as ERAInterim reanalysis products. Remarkable similarities and differences between the different information sources have been found and will be discussed in the presentation.

  17. Product State Modelling based on a Meta Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Sørensen, Christian; Langer, Gilad

    1999-01-01

    ) is a product model that contains continuously updated data regarding the outcome of the production processes. The main contribution of this paper is a definition and a description of a Production Meta Product State Model (Production Meta PSM), using the Unified Modelling Language (UML). The meta model......As products often deviate from their original design and specifications when being produced, adjustments of the product or process are required in order to meet specifications. A prerequisite for this adjustment, is appropriate and effectively collected shop floor data. The Product State Model (PSM...... incorporates a set of characteristics associated to the (1) scope or application domain of the PSM, (2) the artefact or product, and (3) the events transforming the product and trigging product state changes. Moreover, the paper provides guidelines for a specialisation of the meta model with respect...

  18. Development of a production meta Product State Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Sørensen, Christian; Langer, Gilad

    1999-01-01

    ) is a product model that contains continuously updated data regarding the outcome of the production processes. The main contribution of this paper is a definition and a description of a Production Meta Product State Model (Production Meta PSM), using the Unified Modelling Language (UML). The meta model......As products often deviate from their original design and specifications when being produced, adjustments of the product or process are required in order to meet specifications. A prerequisite for this adjustment, is appropriate and effectively collected shop floor data. The Product State Model (PSM...... incorporates a set of characteristics associated to the (1) scope or application domain of the PSM, (2) the artefact or product, and (3) the events transforming the product and trigging product state changes. Moreover, the paper provides guidelines for a specialisation of the meta model with respect...

  19. Can atmospheric reanalysis datasets be used to reproduce flood characteristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, K.; Schumann, G.; Stampoulis, D.

    2014-12-01

    Floods are one of the costliest natural disasters and the ability to understand their characteristics and their interactions with population, land cover and climate changes is of paramount importance. In order to accurately reproduce flood characteristics such as water inundation and heights both in the river channels and floodplains, hydrodynamic models are required. Most of these models operate at very high resolutions and are computationally very expensive, making their application over large areas very difficult. However, a need exists for such models to be applied at regional to global scales so that the effects of climate change with regards to flood risk can be examined. We use the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to simulate a 40-year history of flood characteristics at the continental scale, particularly over Australia. LISFLOOD-FP is a 2-D hydrodynamic model that solves the approximate Saint-Venant equations at large scales (on the order of 1 km) using a sub-grid representation of the river channel. This implementation is part of an effort towards a global 1-km flood modeling framework that will allow the reconstruction of a long-term flood climatology. The components of this framework include a hydrologic model (the widely-used Variable Infiltration Capacity model) and a meteorological dataset that forces it. In order to extend the simulated flood climatology to 50-100 years in a consistent manner, reanalysis datasets have to be used. The objective of this study is the evaluation of multiple atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA, NCEP, MERRA, JRA) as inputs to the VIC/LISFLOOD-FP model. Comparisons of the simulated flood characteristics are made with both satellite observations of inundation and a benchmark simulation of LISFLOOD-FP being forced by observed flows. Finally, the implications of the availability of a global flood modeling framework for producing flood hazard maps and disseminating disaster information are discussed.

  20. Validation and uncertainty analysis for monthly and extreme precipitation in the ERA-20C reanalysis based on the WZN in-situ measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rustemeier, Elke; Ziese, Markus; Raykova, Kristin; Meyer-Christoffer, Anja; Schneider, Udo; Finger, Peter; Becker, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The proper representation of precipitation, in particular extreme precipitation, in global reanalyses is still challenging. This paper focuses on the potential of the ERA-20C centennial reanalysis to reproduce precipitation events. The global ERA-20C Reanalysis has been developed within the projects ERA-CLIM and its successor ERA-CLIM2 with the aim of a multi-decadal reanalysis of the global climate system. One of the objectives of ERA-CLIM2 is to provide useful information about the uncertainty of the various parameters. Since precipitation is a prognostic variable, it allows for independent validation by in-situ measurements. For this purpose, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) operated by the DWD has compared the ERA-20C Reanalysis with the GPCC observational products "Full Data Monthly Version 7" (FDM-V7) and "Full Data Daily Version 1" (FDD-V1). ERA-20C is based on the ECMWF prediction model IFS version Cy38r1 with a spatial resolution of approximately 125 km and covers the 111 years from 1900 to 2010. The GPCC FDM-V7 raster data product, on the other hand, includes the global land surface in-situ measurements between 1901 and 2013 (Schneider et al., 2014) and the FDD-V1 raster data product covers daily precipitation from 1988 to 2013 with daily resolution. The most suitable resolution of 1° was used to validate ERA-20C. For the spatial and temporal validation of the ERA-20C Reanalysis, global temporal scores were calculated on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. These include e.g. monthly contingency table scores, correlation or climate change indices (ETCCDI) for precipitation to determine extreme values and their temporal change (Peterson et al., 2001, Appendix A). Not surprisingly, the regions with the strongest differences are also those with data scarcity, mountain regions with their luv and lee effects or monsoon areas. They all show a strong systematic difference and breaks within the time series. Differences between ERA-20C and

  1. Structuring as a Basis for Product Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    1999-01-01

    Structure means the way which things are built up. A composite product does not exhibit one structure, but hides in its structure of parts several different structuring principles, which fit the production, service, transport etc. Structuring of product models is complex where many factors...... are influencing. This paper identifies four factors that are influencing the structure of a product model: genetics, functionality/property, product life and product assortment. Three principles, which support determination of product model structures, are proposed....

  2. Incurred sample reanalysis: a global transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, Chidambaram T

    2011-12-01

    Incurred sample reanalysis (ISR) is accepted as both a fundamental concept and an integral part in the conduct of pharmacokinetic, bioequivalence and preclinical safety studies. Reproducibility demonstrated by ISR reinforces confidence that the method is valid and the results dependable. In this article, the history of the uptake of ISR is discussed and the current practices described. The industry is given credit for its awareness of the importance of, and implementation of, ISR practices in bioanalytical laboratories. Finally, in the context of the recent publication of guidelines for ISR by the EMA, implications for globalization and harmonization of regulations pertaining to ISR are described.

  3. A model for optimizing the production of pharmaceutical products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevena Gospodinova

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The problem associated with the optimal production planning is especially relevant in modern industrial enterprises. The most commonly used optimality criteria in this context are: maximizing the total profit; minimizing the cost per unit of production; maximizing the capacity utilization; minimizing the total production costs. This article aims to explore the possibility for optimizing the production of pharmaceutical products through the construction of a mathematical model that can be viewed in two ways – as a single-product model and a multi-product model. As an optimality criterion it is set the minimization of the cost per unit of production for a given planning period. The author proposes an analytical method for solving the nonlinear optimization problem. An optimal production plan of Tylosin tartrate is found using the single-product model.

  4. Coordinating earth observation data validation for RE-analysis for CLIMAte ServiceS - CORE-CLIMAX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Zhongbo; Timmermans, Wim; Zeng, Yijian; Timmermans, Joris

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of the CORE-CLIMAX project is to coordinate the identification of available physical measurements, which can be reconciled with previously existing data records, to form long time series. In this way the project contributes to monitoring the climate system; detect and attribute climate change; and assess impacts of, and support adaptation to, climate variability and change. As such the project will help to substantiate how COPERNICUS observations and products can contribute to climate change analyses, by establishing the extent to which COPERNICUS observations complement existing Climate Data Records. Since reanalyses are important for improving and synthesizing historical climate records, and for providing regional detail in a global context necessary for policy development and implementation, CORE-CLIMAX will identify the integration of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) into the reanalysis chain by proposing a feedback mechanism ensuring that the results of the re-analysis process get appropriately reflected into updates of the ECVs. Together with inter-comparing different reanalyses, CORE-CLIMAX will eventually contribute to establish a European truly coupled gridded re-analysis which incorporates full exchanges and interactions between atmosphere, ocean and land, including the hydrological cycle. The CORE-CLIMAX project coordinates the identification of available and future physical measurements, which can be reconciled with previously existing data records, to form long time series. One of the major objectives of the CORE-CLIMAX project is the identification of the capability of ongoing activities, contribute to the formulation of the Copernicus climate service (http://www.copernicus.eu/) and lay the observational basis for service activities. Therefore the project consortium has developed the System Maturity Matrix (SMM); a metric to analyze the so called maturity of the ECV production systems considering the scientific, engineering, information

  5. Providing Access to a Diverse Set of Global Reanalysis Dataset Collections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, D.; Worley, S. J.

    2015-12-01

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Research Data Archive (RDA, http://rda.ucar.edu) provides open access to a variety of global reanalysis dataset collections to support atmospheric and related sciences research worldwide. These include products from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NCAR.All RDA hosted reanalysis collections are freely accessible to registered users through a variety of methods. Standard access methods include traditional browser and scripted HTTP file download. Enhanced downloads are available through the Globus GridFTP "fire and forget" data transfer service, which provides an efficient, reliable, and preferred alternative to traditional HTTP-based methods. For those that favor interoperable access using compatible tools, the Unidata THREDDS Data server provides remote access to complete reanalysis collections by virtual dataset aggregation "files". Finally, users can request data subsets and format conversions to be prepared for them through web interface form requests or web service API batch requests. This approach uses NCAR HPC and central file systems to effectively prepare products from the high-resolution and very large reanalyses archives. The presentation will include a detailed inventory of all RDA reanalysis dataset collection holdings, and highlight access capabilities to these collections through use case examples.

  6. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, J. L.

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers...... analysing efficiency at the vessel level and factors influencing this. The third part consists of two papers and presents industry level analyses and focuses in particular on the likely impacts of implementing individual transferable quotas. The models are able to allow for changes in fishermen’s behaviour...... via individual learning and adjustments in output mix. All the papers included in Part II: Modelling and Evaluating Fishermen’s Behaviour consider factors influencing fishermen’s behaviour. Knowledge about these factors is important to give a correct description of fishermen’s behaviour. However...

  7. Ecmwf Global Reanalysis Project, Era-40

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uppala, S.; Kållberg, P.; Simmons, A.; Fiorino, M.; Hernandez, A.; Li, Xu; Onogi, K.; Saarinen, S.; Sokka, N.

    ECMWF is currently performing the ERA-40 reanalysis of the global atmosphere for the period 1957-2001, with support from the European Union and several other or- ganizations. The ERA-40 analyses will complement the existing reanalysis datasets from NCEP (1947-2000) and ECMWF (ERA-15, 1979-1993). Reanalyses in general seek to achieve as great a time consistency as possible within the limitations of the data-assimilation scheme and the available observing systems. The historical ground- based WWW observations and observations from special experiments such as GATE, FGGE and ALPEX have been made available to the project, mainly by NCAR/NCEP, ECMWF, JMA and USNAVY. In addition, and to a much larger extent than in ERA- 15, ERA-40 makes use of multichannel satellite radiances through a T159L60/ 3D- variational assimilation starting with data from the first VTPR sounding instrument in 1972 and continuing up to the present SSM/I, TOVS and ATOVS instruments. Cloud Motion Winds are used from 1979 onwards and EUMETSAT has undertaken to repro- cess Meteosat winds for 1983-1988. The length of the period allows studies relating to climate change, long term trends and fluctuations such as El Nino and the QBO. The presentation will describe the project, including its status, the assimilation system and the characteristics of the observing systems through the period, with indications of their performance and impact on medium-range weather forecasts.

  8. A Regional Ocean Reanalysis System for Coastal Waters of China and Adjacent Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    A regional ocean reanalysis system for the coastal waters of China and adjacent seas has been developed by the National Marine Data and Information Service(NMDIS).It produces a dataset package called CORA (China ocean reanalysis).The regional ocean model used is based on the Princeton Ocean Model with a generalized coordinate system(POMgcs).The model is parallelized by NMDIS with the addition of the wave breaking and tidal mixing processes into model parameterizations.Data assimilation is a sequential three-dimensional variational(3D-Var) scheme implemented within a multigrid framework.Observations include satellite remote sensing sea surface temperature(SST),altimetry sea level anomaly(SLA),and temperature/salinity profiles.The reanalysis fields of sea surface height,temperature,salinity,and currents begin with January 1986 and are currently updated every year. Error statistics and error distributions of temperature,salinity and currents are presented as a primary evaluation of the reanalysis fields using sea level data from tidal gauges,temperature profiles,as well as the trajectories of Argo floats.Some case studies offer the opportunity to verify the evolution of certain local circulations.These evaluations show that the reanalysis data produced provide a good representation of the ocean processes and phenomena in the coastal waters of China and adjacent seas.

  9. Arctic clouds and surface radiation – a critical comparison of satellite retrievals and the ERA-interim reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zygmuntowska

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Clouds regulate Earth's radiation budget, both by reflecting part of the incoming sunlight leading to cooling and by absorbing and emitting infrared radiation which tends to have a warming effect. Globally averaged, at the top of the atmosphere the cloud radiative effect is to cool the climate, while at the Arctic surface, clouds are thought to be warming. Ground-based observations of central Arctic Ocean cloudiness are limited to sporadic field campaigns. Therefore many studies rely on satellite- or reanalysis data. Here we compare a passive instrument, the AVHRR-based retrieval from CM-SAF, with recently launched active instruments onboard CloudSat and CALIPSO and the widely used ERA-Interim reanalysis. We find that the three data sets differ significantly. In summer, the two satellite products agree having monthly means of 70–80 percent, but the reanalysis are approximately ten percent higher. In winter passive satellite instruments have serious difficulties, detecting only half the cloudiness of the reanalysis, active instruments being in between. The monthly mean long- and shortwave components of the surface cloud radiative effect obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are about twice that calculated on the basis of CloudSat retrievals. We discuss these discrepancies in terms of instrument-, retrieval- and reanalysis characteristics.

  10. Alignment of Product Models and Product State Models - Integration of the Product Lifecycle Phases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Kirkby, Lars Phillip; Vesterager, Johan

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to discuss the integration of the Product Model (PM) and the Product State Model (PCM). Focus is on information exchange from the PSM to the PM within the manufacturing of a single ship. The paper distinguishes between information and knowledge integration. The paper...

  11. Calibration of a large-scale hydrological model using satellite-based soil moisture and evapotranspiration products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. López López

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A considerable number of river basins around the world lack sufficient ground observations of hydro-meteorological data for effective water resources assessment and management. Several approaches can be developed to increase the quality and availability of data in these poorly gauged or ungauged river basins; among them, the use of Earth observations products has recently become promising. Earth observations of various environmental variables can be used potentially to increase knowledge about the hydrological processes in the basin and to improve streamflow model estimates, via assimilation or calibration. The present study aims to calibrate the large-scale hydrological model PCRaster GLOBal Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB using satellite-based products of evapotranspiration and soil moisture for the Moroccan Oum er Rbia River basin. Daily simulations at a spatial resolution of 5  ×  5 arcmin are performed with varying parameters values for the 32-year period 1979–2010. Five different calibration scenarios are inter-compared: (i reference scenario using the hydrological model with the standard parameterization, (ii calibration using in situ-observed discharge time series, (iii calibration using the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM actual evapotranspiration time series, (iv calibration using ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI surface soil moisture time series and (v step-wise calibration using GLEAM actual evapotranspiration and ESA CCI surface soil moisture time series. The impact on discharge estimates of precipitation in comparison with model parameters calibration is investigated using three global precipitation products, including ERA-Interim (EI, WATCH Forcing methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (WFDEI and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation data by merging gauge, satellite and reanalysis data (MSWEP. Results show that GLEAM evapotranspiration and ESA CCI soil moisture may be used for model

  12. Calibration of a large-scale hydrological model using satellite-based soil moisture and evapotranspiration products

    Science.gov (United States)

    López López, Patricia; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Schellekens, Jaap; Sterk, Geert; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2017-06-01

    A considerable number of river basins around the world lack sufficient ground observations of hydro-meteorological data for effective water resources assessment and management. Several approaches can be developed to increase the quality and availability of data in these poorly gauged or ungauged river basins; among them, the use of Earth observations products has recently become promising. Earth observations of various environmental variables can be used potentially to increase knowledge about the hydrological processes in the basin and to improve streamflow model estimates, via assimilation or calibration. The present study aims to calibrate the large-scale hydrological model PCRaster GLOBal Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) using satellite-based products of evapotranspiration and soil moisture for the Moroccan Oum er Rbia River basin. Daily simulations at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 arcmin are performed with varying parameters values for the 32-year period 1979-2010. Five different calibration scenarios are inter-compared: (i) reference scenario using the hydrological model with the standard parameterization, (ii) calibration using in situ-observed discharge time series, (iii) calibration using the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) actual evapotranspiration time series, (iv) calibration using ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) surface soil moisture time series and (v) step-wise calibration using GLEAM actual evapotranspiration and ESA CCI surface soil moisture time series. The impact on discharge estimates of precipitation in comparison with model parameters calibration is investigated using three global precipitation products, including ERA-Interim (EI), WATCH Forcing methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (WFDEI) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation data by merging gauge, satellite and reanalysis data (MSWEP). Results show that GLEAM evapotranspiration and ESA CCI soil moisture may be used for model calibration resulting in

  13. Production economic models of fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper Levring

    The overall purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate different aspects of fishermen’s behaviour using production economic models at the individual and industry levels. Three parts make up this thesis. The first part provides an overview of the thesis. The second part consists of four papers...... or fishing location. Behaviour can be viewed as being determined by the fishermen’s objectives subject to different restrictions, given by physical resources, time, mental capacity and information, and institutions. The review of the extensive literature gives reasonable support to the neoclassical...

  14. Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

    2014-05-01

    We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes

  15. The MACC reanalysis: an 8-yr data set of atmospheric composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Inness

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7 funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gases analysis fields to document the dataset and to give a first indication of its quality.

    Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions.

    Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozone sondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most situations. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozone sondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent.

    NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in Northern and Southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons.

    Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are

  16. The MACC reanalysis: an 8 yr data set of atmospheric composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Inness

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available An eight-year long reanalysis of atmospheric composition data covering the period 2003–2010 was constructed as part of the FP7-funded Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate project by assimilating satellite data into a global model and data assimilation system. This reanalysis provides fields of chemically reactive gases, namely carbon monoxide, ozone, nitrogen oxides, and formaldehyde, as well as aerosols and greenhouse gases globally at a horizontal resolution of about 80 km for both the troposphere and the stratosphere. This paper describes the assimilation system for the reactive gases and presents validation results for the reactive gas analysis fields to document the data set and to give a first indication of its quality. Tropospheric CO values from the MACC reanalysis are on average 10–20% lower than routine observations from commercial aircrafts over airports through most of the troposphere, and have larger negative biases in the boundary layer at urban sites affected by air pollution, possibly due to an underestimation of CO or precursor emissions. Stratospheric ozone fields from the MACC reanalysis agree with ozonesondes and ACE-FTS data to within ±10% in most seasons and regions. In the troposphere the reanalysis shows biases of −5% to +10% with respect to ozonesondes and aircraft data in the extratropics, but has larger negative biases in the tropics. Area-averaged total column ozone agrees with ozone fields from a multi-sensor reanalysis data set to within a few percent. NO2 fields from the reanalysis show the right seasonality over polluted urban areas of the NH and over tropical biomass burning areas, but underestimate wintertime NO2 maxima over anthropogenic pollution regions and overestimate NO2 in northern and southern Africa during the tropical biomass burning seasons. Tropospheric HCHO is well simulated in the MACC reanalysis even though no satellite data are assimilated. It shows good agreement with

  17. The benefit of using additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data on water allocation decisions in irrigation districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaune, Alexander; López, Patricia; Werner, Micha; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological information on water availability and demand is vital for sound water allocation decisions in irrigation districts, particularly in times of water scarcity. However, sub-optimal water allocation decisions are often taken with incomplete hydrological information, which may lead to agricultural production loss. In this study we evaluate the benefit of additional hydrological information from earth observations and reanalysis data in supporting decisions in irrigation districts. Current water allocation decisions were emulated through heuristic operational rules for water scarce and water abundant conditions in the selected irrigation districts. The Dynamic Water Balance Model based on the Budyko framework was forced with precipitation datasets from interpolated ground measurements, remote sensing and reanalysis data, to determine the water availability for irrigation. Irrigation demands were estimated based on estimates of potential evapotranspiration and coefficient for crops grown, adjusted with the interpolated precipitation data. Decisions made using both current and additional hydrological information were evaluated through the rate at which sub-optimal decisions were made. The decisions made using an amended set of decision rules that benefit from additional information on demand in the districts were also evaluated. Results show that sub-optimal decisions can be reduced in the planning phase through improved estimates of water availability. Where there are reliable observations of water availability through gauging stations, the benefit of the improved precipitation data is found in the improved estimates of demand, equally leading to a reduction of sub-optimal decisions.

  18. Product directivity models for parametric loudspeakers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Chuang; Gan, Woon-Seng

    2012-03-01

    In a recent work, the beamsteering characteristics of parametric loudspeakers were validated in an experiment. It was shown that based on the product directivity model, the locations and amplitudes of the mainlobe and grating lobes could be predicted within acceptable errors. However, the measured amplitudes of sidelobes have not been able to match the theoretical results accurately. In this paper, the original theories behind the product directivity model are revisited, and three modified product directivity models are proposed: (i) the advanced product directivity model, (ii) the exponential product directivity model, and (iii) the combined product directivity model. The proposed product directivity models take the radii of equivalent Gaussian sources into account and obtain better predictions of sidelobes for the difference frequency waves. From the comparison between measurement results and numerical solutions, all the proposed models outperform the original product directivity model in terms of selected sidelobe predictions by about 10 dB.

  19. NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2c)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRV2c)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the...

  20. NOAA-CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis (V2)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 20th Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRV2)is an effort led by PSD and the CIRES at the University of Colorado to produce a reanalysis dataset spanning the entire...

  1. A grand model for chemical product design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fung, Ka Y.; Ng, Ka M.; Zhang, Lei;

    2016-01-01

    Chemical engineering has been expanding its focus from primarily business-to-business products (B2B) to business-to-consumer (B2C) products. The production of B2B products generally emphasizes on process design and optimization, whereas the production of B2C products focuses on product quality......, ingredients and structure. Market and competitive analysis, government policies and regulations have to be explicitly considered in product design. All these considerations are accounted for in the Grand Product Design Model, which consists of a process model, a property model, a quality model, a cost model...... product composition changes with market conditions. Another is a hand lotion that illustrates how product quality affects the profit.(C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  2. Extending product modeling methods for integrated product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonev, Martin; Wörösch, Michael; Hauksdóttir, Dagný

    2013-01-01

    Despite great efforts within the modeling domain, the majority of methods often address the uncommon design situation of an original product development. However, studies illustrate that development tasks are predominantly related to redesigning, improving, and extending already existing products....... Updated design requirements have then to be made explicit and mapped against the existing product architecture. In this paper, existing methods are adapted and extended through linking updated requirements to suitable product models. By combining several established modeling techniques, such as the DSM...... and PVM methods, in a presented Product Requirement Development model some of the individual drawbacks of each method could be overcome. Based on the UML standard, the model enables the representation of complex hierarchical relationships in a generic product model. At the same time it uses matrix...

  3. Efficient reanalysis techniques for robust topology optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amir, Oded; Sigmund, Ole; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov

    2012-01-01

    efficient robust topology optimization procedures based on reanalysis techniques. The approach is demonstrated on two compliant mechanism design problems where robust design is achieved by employing either a worst case formulation or a stochastic formulation. It is shown that the time spent on finite......The article focuses on the reduction of the computational effort involved in robust topology optimization procedures. The performance of structures designed by means of topology optimization may be seriously degraded due to fabrication errors. Robust formulations of the optimization problem were...... shown to yield optimized designs that are tolerant with respect to such manufacturing uncertainties. The main drawback of such procedures is the added computational cost associated with the need to evaluate a set of designs by performing multiple finite element analyses. In this article, we propose...

  4. Modelling of virtual production networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays many companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs, specialize in a limited field of production. It requires forming virtual production networks of cooperating enterprises to manufacture better, faster and cheaper. Apart from that, some production orders cannot be realized, because there is not a company of sufficient production potential. In this case the virtual production networks of cooperating companies can realize these production orders. These networks have larger production capacity and many different resources. Therefore it can realize many more production orders together than each of them separately. Such organization allows for executing high quality product. The maintenance costs of production capacity and used resources are not so high. In this paper a methodology of rapid prototyping of virtual production networks is proposed. It allows to execute production orders on time considered existing logistic constraints.

  5. A procedure for Building Product Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars

    1999-01-01

    , easily adaptable concepts and methods from data modeling (object oriented analysis) and domain modeling (product modeling). The concepts are general and can be used for modeling all types of specifications in the different phases in the product life cycle. The modeling techniques presented have been...

  6. The economic production lot size model with several production rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    should be chosen in the interval between the demand rate and the production rate, which minimize unit production costs, and should be used in an increasing order. Then, given the production rates, we derive closed form solutions for the optimal runtimes as well as the minimum average cost. Finally we......We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. The production rates and their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all production rates...

  7. Product model structure for generalized optimal design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    The framework of the generalized optimization product model with the core of network- and tree-hierarchical structure is advanced to improve the characteristics of the generalized optimal design. Based on the proposed node-repetition technique, a network-hierarchical structure is united with the tree-hierarchical structure to facilitate the modeling of serialization and combination products. The criteria for product decomposition are investigated. Seven tree nodes are defined for the construction of a general product model, and their modeling properties are studied in detail. The developed product modeling system is applied and examined successfully in the modeling practice of the generalized optimal design for a hydraulic excavator.

  8. Product Customization in the Spokes Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aoki, Reiko; Hillas, John; Kao, Tina

    2014-01-01

    We use a spokes model to analyze ?ms?customization incentives when facing the choices of standard and niche products. Products at or near the end of the spokes are customized products, while products near the origin are more standardized products that cater to the taste of many consumers. Our results indicate that although monopolist always offers the standard product, if a ?m anticipates entry, it may choose to stake claim to a customized product. For low transportation costs, the early entr...

  9. Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

  10. Can reanalysis datasets describe the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes over China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jian; Huang, Dan-Qing; Yan, Pei-Wen; Huang, Ying; Kuang, Xue-Yuan

    2016-08-01

    The persistent temperature and precipitation extremes may bring damage to the economy and human due to their intensity, duration and areal coverage. Understanding the quality of reanalysis datasets in descripting these extreme events is important for detection, attribution and model evaluation. In this study, the performances of two reanalysis datasets [the twentieth century reanalysis (20CR) and Interim ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-Interim)] in reproducing the persistent temperature and precipitation extremes in China are evaluated. For the persistent temperature extremes, the two datasets can better capture the intensity indices than the frequency indices. The increasing/decreasing trend of persistent warm/cold extremes has been reasonably detected by the two datasets, particularly in the northern part of China. The ERA-Interim better reproduces the climatology and tendency of persistent warm extremes, while the 20CR has better skill to depict the persistent cold extremes. For the persistent precipitation extremes, the two datasets have the ability to reproduce the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation. The two datasets largely underestimate the maximum consecutive dry days over the northern part of China, while overestimate the maximum consecutive wet days over the southern part of China. For the response of the precipitation extremes against the temperature variations, the ERA-Interim has good ability to depict the relationship among persistent precipitation extremes, local persistent temperature extremes, and global temperature variations over specific regions.

  11. Multi-Reanalysis Comparison of Variability in Analysis Increment of Column-Integrated Water Vapor Associated with Madden-Julian Oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, S.

    2014-12-01

    This study conducts a comparison of three reanalysis products (JRA-55, JRA-25, and ERA-Interim) in representation of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), focusing on column-integrated water vapor (CWV) that is considered as an essential variable for discussing MJO dynamics. Besides the analysis fields of CWV, which exhibit spatio-temporal distributions that are quite similar to satellite observations, CWV tendency simulated by forecast models and analysis increment calculated by data assimilation are examined. For JRA-55, it is revealed that, while its forecast model is able to simulate eastward propagation of the CWV anomaly, it tends to weaken the amplitude, and data assimilation process sustains the amplitude. The multi-reanalysis comparison of the analysis increment further reveals that this weakening bias is probably caused by excessively weak cloud-radiative feedback represented by the model. This bias in the feedback strength makes anomalous moisture supply by the vertical advection term in the CWV budget equation too insensitive to precipitation anomaly, resulting in reduction of the amplitude of CWV anomaly. ERA-Interim has a nearly opposite feature; the forecast model represents excessively strong feedback and unrealistically strengthens the amplitude, while the data assimilation weakens it. These results imply the necessity of accurate representation of the cloud-radiative feedback strength for a short-term MJO forecast, and may be evidence to support the argument that this feedback is essential for the existence of MJO. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that the multi-reanalysis comparison of the analysis increment will provide useful information for identifying model biases and, potentially, for estimating parameters that are difficult to estimate solely from observation data, such as gross moist stability.

  12. Use Of EOS-AURA Observation In The MERRA-2 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pawson, Steven; Wargan, Krzysztof; Coy, Lawrence L.; McCarty, Will

    2014-01-01

    Meteorological reanalyses provide multi-year gridded datasets that describe the evolution of the atmosphere. Such products use a data assimilation system, comprising of an atmospheric model, a broad suite of observations, and an analysis system that optimally combines the model forecast with the observations, using an algorithm that includes information about model and data accuracy. The mixture of observations is of central importance to the quality of the assimilated datasets. The Modern-era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) included constraints on the thermal structure of the middle atmosphere from nadir sounders on the NOAA polar-orbiting platforms (Stratospheric Sounding Units and Advanced Microwave Sounding Units). These instruments have peak sensitivities that occur well below the stratopause. As such, the radiance measurements do not provide strong constraints on stratopause temperature. The new MERRA-2 reanalysis is using EOS-MLS temperature retrievals after they are available: it will be demonstrated that these data lead to a more realistic stratopause structure in MERRA-2 than in MERRA. Similarly, the work demonstrates the improvements in lower stratospheric ozone in MERRA-2 than in MERRA, for the period when EOS-MLS ozone data are assimilated. This improvement occurs because of the ozone profile information offered by MLS in the low stratosphere, in contrast to the SBUV/2 data used for the rest of MERRA-2. The impacts of choosing to use the EOS-MLS datasets are discussed in context of the continuity of the data record in MERRA- 2.

  13. A procedure for building product models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Malis, Martin

    2001-01-01

    with product models. The next phase includes an analysis of the product assortment, and the set up of a so-called product master. Finally the product model is designed and implemented using object oriented modelling. The procedure is developed in order to ensure that the product models constructed are fit...... for the business processes they support, and properly structured and documented, in order to facilitate that the systems can be maintained continually and further developed. The research has been carried out at the Centre for Industrialisation of Engineering, Department of Manufacturing Engineering, Technical...

  14. An Optimization Model for Product Placement on Product Listing Pages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan-Kwang Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The design of product listing pages is a key component of Website design because it has significant influence on the sales volume on a Website. This study focuses on product placement in designing product listing pages. Product placement concerns how venders of online stores place their products over the product listing pages for maximization of profit. This problem is very similar to the offline shelf management problem. Since product information sources on a Web page are typically communicated through the text and image, visual stimuli such as color, shape, size, and spatial arrangement often have an effect on the visual attention of online shoppers and, in turn, influence their eventual purchase decisions. In view of the above, this study synthesizes the visual attention literature and theory of shelf-space allocation to develop a mathematical programming model with genetic algorithms for finding optimal solutions to the focused issue. The validity of the model is illustrated with example problems.

  15. Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars;

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits...... of this model is the explicit ability to describe what the architecture is prepared for, and what it is not prepared for - concerning development of future derivative products. The model has been applied in a large scale global product development project. Among the most important benefits is contribution to...

  16. Structure of the tropical lower stratosphere as revealed by three reanalysis data sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pawson, S. [Free Univ. of Berlin (Germany). Institute for Meteorology; Fiorino, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1996-05-01

    While the skill of climate simulation models has advanced over the last decade, mainly through improvements in modeling, further progress will depend on the availability and the quality of comprehensive validation data sets covering long time periods. A new source of such validation data is atmospheric {open_quotes}reanalysis{close_quotes} where a fixed, state-of-the-art global atmospheric model/data assimilation system is run through archived and recovered observations to produce a consistent set of atmospheric analyses. Although reanalysis will be free of non-physical variability caused by changes in the models and/or the assimilation procedure, it is necessary to assess its quality. A region for stringent testing of the quality of reanalysis is the tropical lower stratosphere. This portion of the atmosphere is sparse in observations but displays the prominent quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and an annual cycle, neither of which is fully understood, but which are likely coupled dynamically. We first consider the performance of three reanalyses, from NCEP/NCAR, NASA and ECMWF, against rawinsonde data in depicting the QBO and then examine the structure of the tropical lower stratosphere in NCEP and ECMWF data sets in detail. While the annual cycle and the QBO in wind and temperature are quite successfully represented, the mean meridional circulations in NCEP and ECMWF data sets contain unusual features which may be due to the assimilation process rather than being physically based. Further, the models capture the long-term temperature fluctuations associated with volcanic eruptions, even though the physical mechanisms are not included, thus implying that the model does not mask prominent stratospheric signals in the observational data. We conclude that reanalysis offers a unique opportunity to better understand the dynamics of QBO and can be applied to climate model validation.

  17. Architecture of the Product State Model Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Larsen, Michael; Lynggaard, Hans Jørgen B.

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of using product models to support product lifecycle activities withparticular focus on the production phase. The motivation of the research is that products are producedmore costly and with longer lead-time than necessary.The paper provides a review of product...... modelling technologies and approaches, and the overallarchitecture for the Product State Model (PSM) Environment as a basis for quality monitoring.Especially, the paper focuses on the circumstances prevailing in a one-of-a-kind manufacturingenvironment like the shipbuilding industry, where product modelling...... technologies already haveproved their worth in the design and engineering phases of shipbuilding and in the operation phase.However, the handling of product information on the shop floor is not yet equally developed.The paper reports from the Brite-Euram project (No. BE97-4510) QualiGlobe focusing...

  18. MASS CUSTOMIZATION and PRODUCT MODELS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Carsten; Malis, Martin

    2003-01-01

    to the product. Through the application of a mass customization strategy, companies have a unique opportunity to create increased customer satisfaction. In a customized production, knowledge and information have to be easily accessible since every product is a unique combination of information. If the dream...... of a customized alternative instead of a uniform mass-produced product shall become a reality, then the cross-organizational efficiency must be kept at a competitive level. This is the real challenge for mass customization. A radical restructuring of both the internal and the external knowledge management systems...

  19. Product Family Modelling for Manufacturing Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Kaj Asbjørn; Petersen, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

    2011-01-01

    of the product family model, however, the model should be enriched with data for planning and execution of the manufacturing processes. The idea is that, when any individual product is specified using the product configurator, a product model can be extracted with all data necessary for planning...... of the manufacturing processes. Obviously, data for identification of all used modules and components are included in the product model but also for instance data for processing and assembly operations must be available. These data are not always related entirely to the modules and components but are sometimes also...... dependent on the specific assembly structure of the configured product, i.e. the combination of modules. In this paper, issues of how to create manufacturing structures and related planning data in product family models are presented. Primarily, the more complicated multi-level manufacturing structures...

  20. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

  1. An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-12-15

    At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

  2. CRC-cards for Product Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvam, Lars; Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer

    2003-01-01

    , transportation, service and decommissioning. A main challenge when building product models is to collect and document the product related data, information and knowledge in a structured way. CRC cards are index cards (or computerized versions of these) which are used to record proposed classes, the behavior......This paper describes the CRC (class, responsibility, collaboration) modelling process for building product models. A product model is normally represented in an IT system which contains data, information and knowledge on industrial products and their life cycle properties e.g. manufacturing...... of the classes, their responsibilities, and their relationship to other classes (collaboration). CRC modelling gives an effective, low-tech method for domain-experts, programmers and users to work closely together to identify, structure, understand and document a product model. CRC cards were originally...

  3. Proactive Modeling of Market, Product and Production Architectures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hansen, Christian Lindschou; Hvam, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an operational model that allows description of market, products and production architectures. The main feature of this model is the ability to describe both structural and functional aspect of architectures. The structural aspect is an answer to the question: What constitutes...... the architecture, e.g. standard designs, design units and interfaces? The functional aspect is an answer to the question: What is the behaviour or the architecture, what is it able to do, i.e. which products at which performance levels can be derived from the architecture? Among the most important benefits......: Improved preparedness for future launches, e.g. user interface and improved energy efficiency Achievement of attractive cost- and technical performance level on all products in the product family On time launch of the first generation of the product family"...

  4. Simulation model of metallurgical production management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Šnapka

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This article is focused to the problems of the metallurgical production process intensification. The aim is the explaining of simulation model which presents metallurgical production management system adequated to new requirements. The knowledge of a dynamic behavior and features of metallurgical production system and its management are needed to this model creation. Characteristics which determine the dynamics of metallurgical production process are characterized. Simulation model is structured as functional blocks and their linkages with regard to organizational and temporal hierarchy of their actions. The creation of presented simulation model is based on theoretical findings of regulation, hierarchical systems and optimization.

  5. Constraining the GENIE model of neutrino-induced single pion production using reanalyzed bubble chamber data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodrigues, Philip; McFarland, Kevin [University of Rochester, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rochester, NY (United States); Wilkinson, Callum [University of Bern, Laboratory for High Energy Physics (LHEP), Albert Einstein Center for Fundamental Physics, Bern (Switzerland)

    2016-08-15

    The longstanding discrepancy between bubble chamber measurements of ν{sub μ}-induced single pion production channels has led to large uncertainties in pion production cross section parameters for many years. We extend the reanalysis of pion production data in deuterium bubble chambers where this discrepancy is solved (Wilkinson et al., PRD 90, 112017 2014) to include the ν{sub μ}n → μ{sup -}pπ{sup 0} and ν{sub μ}n → μ{sup -}nπ{sup +} channels, and use the resulting data to fit the parameters of the GENIE pion production model. We find a set of parameters that can describe the bubble chamber data better than the GENIE default parameters, and provide updated central values and reduced uncertainties for use in neutrino oscillation and cross section analyses which use the GENIE model. We find that GENIE's non-resonant background prediction has to be significantly reduced to fit the data, which may help to explain the recent discrepancies between simulation and data observed by the MINERνA coherent pion and NOνA oscillation analyses. (orig.)

  6. Modeling the polymer product maceration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahunov, D. N.; Karpova, M. N.

    2014-12-01

    The article contains a view of mass transmission simulation procedure conformably to control of manufacturing method's automation, and also is shown a simulator of polymer product maceration process, and results of developed for this simulator realization program system

  7. Surface wave climatology and its variability in the North Indian Ocean based on ERA-Interim reanalysis

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Anoop, T.R.; Sanilkumar, V.; Shanas, P.R.; Johnson, G.

    -Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global atmospheric reanalysis product (ERA-Interim) for the period 1979–2012 are analyzed. Annual average significant wave height (SWH) of the NIO ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 m and the seasonal average is highest (3–3.5 m) during...

  8. A tropospheric chemistry reanalysis for the years 2005–2012 based on an assimilation of OMI, MLS, TES, and MOPITT satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Miyazaki

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present the results from an 8-year tropospheric chemistry reanalysis for the period 2005–2012 obtained by assimilating multiple data sets from the OMI, MLS, TES, and MOPITT satellite instruments. The reanalysis calculation was conducted using a global chemical transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter technique that simultaneously optimises the chemical concentrations of various species and emissions of several precursors. The optimisation of both the concentration and the emission fields is an efficient method to correct the entire tropospheric profile and its year-to-year variations, and to adjust various tracers chemically linked to the species assimilated. Comparisons against independent aircraft, satellite, and ozonesonde observations demonstrate the quality of the analysed O3, NO2, and CO concentrations on regional and global scales and for both seasonal and year-to-year variations from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The data assimilation statistics imply persistent reduction of model error and improved representation of emission variability, but they also show that discontinuities in the availability of the measurements lead to a degradation of the reanalysis. The decrease in the number of assimilated measurements increased the ozonesonde-minus-analysis difference after 2010 and caused spurious variations in the estimated emissions. The Northern/Southern Hemisphere OH ratio was modified considerably due to the multiple-species assimilation and became closer to an observational estimate, which played an important role in propagating observational information among various chemical fields and affected the emission estimates. The consistent concentration and emission products provide unique information on year-to-year variations in the atmospheric environment.

  9. A tropospheric chemistry reanalysis for the years 2005–2012 based on an assimilation of OMI, MLS, TES and MOPITT satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Miyazaki

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available We present the results from an eight-year tropospheric chemistry reanalysis for the period 2005–2012 obtained by assimilating multiple retrieval data sets from the OMI, MLS, TES, and MOPITT satellite instruments. The reanalysis calculation was conducted using a global chemical transport model and an ensemble Kalman filter technique that simultaneously optimises the chemical concentrations of various species and emissions of several precursors. The optimisation of both the concentration and the emission fields is an efficient method to correct the entire tropospheric profile and its year-to-year variations, and to adjust various tracers chemically linked to the species assimilated. Comparisons against independent aircraft, satellite, and ozonesonde observations demonstrate the quality of the analysed O3, NO2, and CO concentrations on regional and global scales and for both seasonal and year-to-year variations from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The data assimilation statistics imply persistent reduction of model error and improved representation of emission variability, but also show that discontinuities in the availability of the measurements lead to a degradation of the reanalysis. The decrease in the number of assimilated measurements increased the ozonesonde minus analysis difference after 2010 and caused spurious variations in the estimated emissions. The Northern/Southern Hemisphere OH ratio was modified considerably due to the multiple species assimilation and became closer to an observational estimate, which played an important role in propagating observational information among various chemical fields and affected the emission estimates. The consistent concentration and emission products provide unique information on year-to-year variations of the atmospheric environment.

  10. Investigating the productivity model for clinical nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghan Nayeri, Nahid; Hooshmand Bahabadi, Abbas; Kazemnejad, Anoshirvan

    2014-01-01

    One of the main objectives of quantitative researches is assessment of models developed by qualitative studies. Models validation through their testing implies that the designed model is representative of the existed facts. Hence, this study was conducted to assess the clinical nurses' productivity model presented for Iranian nurses' productivity. The sample of the study consisted of 360 nurses of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The research tool was a questionnaire for measuring the components of clinical nurses' productivity. After completing all steps of instrument psychometric and getting answers from the participants, the factors introduced in the questionnaire were named and then Lisrel Path Analysis tests were performed to analyze the components of the model. The results of the model test revealed there is an internal relationship among different components of the model. Regression Analysis showed that each increasing unit in components of the model was to be added to central variable of productivity model -human resource. Model components altogether explained 20 % of clinical nurses' productivity variance. This study found that the important component of productivity is human resources that are reciprocally related to other components of the model. Therefore, it can be stated that the managers can promote the productivity by using efficient strategies to correct human resource patterns.

  11. Digital re-analysis of lost architecture and the particular case of Lutyens׳ Liverpool Metropolitan Cathedral

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Webb

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Research and critique of unbuilt or destroyed works of architecture is traditionally carried out through the examination of surviving information such as drawings, models, photographs, biographies and monographs. The case study presented here demonstrates that this approach cannot always give a full-picture of the architect or designer׳s intentions, and may miss inconsistencies in the design and links to other precedents or antecedents in such schemes. Here, we employ strategic contemporary digital representation techniques to re-present and re-analyse the evidence available for a particular architectural project. We describe a systematic methodology, which shows that these techniques can challenge or enhance current understanding. The focus therefore is on the digital re-analysis process that has been devised. Sir Edwin Lutyens׳ unbuilt Liverpool Metropolitan Cathedral design, that would have delivered one of the largest cathedrals in the world, is used as a case study. The findings reveal new information about the cathedral by following structured lines of enquiry generated from the study of primary and secondary source data, as well as serendipitous results that occur as a potential by-product of the methodological process.

  12. Modeling Sustainability in Product Development and Commercialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Robert C.; Rafinejad, Dariush

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors present the framework of a model that integrates strategic product development decisions with the product's impact on future conditions of resources and the environment. The impact of a product on stocks of nonrenewable sources and sinks is linked in a feedback loop to the cost of manufacturing and using the product…

  13. Influence of reanalysis datasets on dynamically downscaling the recent past

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moalafhi, Ditiro B.; Evans, Jason P.; Sharma, Ashish

    2017-08-01

    Multiple reanalysis datasets currently exist that can provide boundary conditions for dynamic downscaling and simulating local hydro-climatic processes at finer spatial and temporal resolutions. Previous work has suggested that there are two reanalyses alternatives that provide the best lateral boundary conditions for downscaling over southern Africa. This study dynamically downscales these reanalyses (ERA-I and MERRA) over southern Africa to a high resolution (10 km) grid using the WRF model. Simulations cover the period 1981-2010. Multiple observation datasets were used for both surface temperature and precipitation to account for observational uncertainty when assessing results. Generally, temperature is simulated quite well, except over the Namibian coastal plain where the simulations show anomalous warm temperature related to the failure to propagate the influence of the cold Benguela current inland. Precipitation tends to be overestimated in high altitude areas, and most of southern Mozambique. This could be attributed to challenges in handling complex topography and capturing large-scale circulation patterns. While MERRA driven WRF exhibits slightly less bias in temperature especially for La Nina years, ERA-I driven simulations are on average superior in terms of RMSE. When considering multiple variables and metrics, ERA-I is found to produce the best simulation of the climate over the domain. The influence of the regional model appears to be large enough to overcome the small difference in relative errors present in the lateral boundary conditions derived from these two reanalyses.

  14. Exploring Climatology and Long-Term Variations of Aerosols from NASA Reanalysis MERRA-2 with Giovanni

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Suhung; Ostrenga, Dana; Vollmer, Bruce; Li, Zhanqing

    2016-01-01

    Dust plays important roles in energy cycle and climate variations. The dust deposition is the major source of iron in the open ocean, which is an essential micronutrient for phytoplankton growth and therefore may influence the ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. Mineral dust can also act as fertilizer for forests over long time periods. Over 35 years of simulated global aerosol products from NASA atmospheric reanalysis, second Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) are available from NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The MERRA-2 covers the period 1980-present, continuing as an ongoing climate analysis. Aerosol assimilation is included throughout the period, using MODIS, MISR, AERONET, and AVHRR (in the pre-EOS period). The aerosols are assimilated by using MERRA-2 aerosol model, which interact directly with the radiation parameterization, and radiatively coupled with atmospheric model dynamics in the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5). Dust deposition data along with other major aerosol compositions (e.g. black carbon, sea salt, and sulfate, etc.) are simulated as dry and wet deposition, respectively. The hourly and monthly data are available at spatial resolution of 0.5ox0.625o (latitude x longitude). Quick data exploration of climatology and interannual variations of MERRA-2 aerosol can be done through the online visualization and analysis tool, Giovanni. This presentation, using dust deposition as an example, demonstrates a number of MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC. Global distributions of dust depositions, and their seasonal and inter-annual variations are investigated from MERRA-2 monthly aerosol products.

  15. Order and Disorder in Product Innovation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pina e Cunha, Miguel; Gomes, Jorge F.S.

    2003-01-01

    This article argues that the conceptual development of product innovation models goes hand in hand with paradigmatic changes in the field of organization science. Remarkable similarities in the change of organizational perspectives and product innovation models are noticeable. To illustrate how chan

  16. Imagery Intelligence (IMINT) Production Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    1.2.1 Strategic versus Tactical IMINT. A major issue in oevLloping the moodl of IMINT production involveo the decision to use IMINT processing as...resuurce~a, onu/’or lack of support capabil iiS. The I11 facilIity lufla-gc- iient can provide training or exercises to cormplerenit its active isi~on

  17. Re-analysis on Infeasibility of Industrial Production Potash Fertilizer by Insoluble K-bearing rock%不溶性含钾岩石工业提钾生产钾肥的不可行性再分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈履安

    2011-01-01

    IIn view of the current status in some area having insoluble K-bearing rock,local governments actively promoting and dominating K-bearing rocks industrially to production potash fertilizer,according to spirit of the scientific decision-making and democratic decision-making,through analysis on home and abroad history and situation of research and development of K-bearing rock,and analysis on rapid development trend of potash fertilizer industry in recent,this paper think that in quite a long time,industrial production of development K-bearing rock in China not is the feasible way to solution of shortage of sylvite resources.Research and development on K-bearing rock as raw materials of potash fertilizer,industrially production soluble potash fertilizer using insoluble potassium rock,really is no economic significance.Industrialization development for insoluble K-bearing rocks is impossible to form the industry of stable sustainable development.Investment risk is huge.%针对当前有些拥有不溶性含钾岩石的地区,仍然积极推动含钾岩石的工业提钾生产钾肥的现状,本着科学决策、民主决策的精神,本文通过国内外含钾岩石研发的历史与现状,以及钾盐肥料产业的快速发展态势和市场分析,认为在今后一个相当长时间内,开发含钾岩石工业生产钾肥不是解决我国钾肥资源短缺的可行途径。把含钾岩石作为钾肥原料、工业生产可溶性钾化肥的研究和开发无现实经济意义。工业产业化开发含钾岩石资源,不可能形成稳定的可持续发展的产业,投入风险巨大。

  18. Marketing Modeling for New Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis addresses the analysis of new or very recent marketing data and the introduction of new marketing models. We present a collection of models that are useful to analyze (1) the optimal launch time of new and dominant technologies, (2) the triggers, speed and timing of new produ

  19. Modelling Product Families for Product Configuration Systems with Product Variant Master

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Henrik; Hvam, Lars; Haug, Anders

    2010-01-01

    developed in cooperation with several industrial companies. This article refers to experiences from applying the modelling technique in three different companies. Based upon these experiences, the utility of the product variant master and CRC-cards is evaluated. Significance. Product configuration systems...... are increasingly used in industrial companies as a means for efficient design of customer tailored products. The design and implementation of product configuration systems is a new and challenging task for the industrial companies and calls for a scientifically based framework to support the modelling......This article presents an evaluation of applying a suggested method for modelling product families for product configuration based on theory for modelling mechanical products,systems theory and object-oriented modelling. The modelling technique includes a so-called product variant master and CRC...

  20. The Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA): A reference atmospheric reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montabone, Luca; Lewis, Stephen R.; Steele, Liam J.; Holmes, James; Read, Peter L.; Valeanu, Alexandru; Smith, Michael D.; Kass, David; Kleinboehl, Armin; LMD Team, MGS/TES Team, MRO/MCS Team

    2016-10-01

    The Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) dataset version 1.0 contains the reanalysis of fundamental atmospheric and surface variables for the planet Mars covering a period of about three Martian years (late MY 24 to early MY 27). This four-dimensional dataset has been produced by data assimilation of retrieved thermal profiles and column dust optical depths from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor/Thermal Emission Spectrometer (MGS/TES), which have been assimilated into a Mars global climate model (MGCM) using the Analysis Correction scheme developed at the UK Meteorological Office.The MACDA v1.0 reanalysis is publicly available, and the NetCDF files can be downloaded from the archive at the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis/British Atmospheric Data Centre (CEDA/BADC). The variables included in the dataset can be visualised using an ad-hoc graphical user interface (the "MACDA Plotter") located at the following URL: http://macdap.physics.ox.ac.uk/The first paper about MACDA reanalysis of TES retrievals appeared in 2006, although the acronym MACDA was not yet used at that time. Ten years later, MACDA v1.0 has been used by several researchers worldwide and has contributed to the advancement of the knowledge about the martian atmosphere in critical areas such as the radiative impact of water ice clouds, the solsticial pause in baroclinic wave activity, and the climatology and dynamics of polar vortices, to cite only a few. It is therefore timely to review the scientific results obtained by using such Mars reference atmospheric reanalysis, in order to understand what priorities the user community should focus on in the next decade.MACDA is an ongoing collaborative project, and work funded by NASA MDAP Programme is currently undertaken to produce version 2.0 of the Mars atmospheric reanalysis. One of the key improvements is the extension of the reanalysis period to nine martian years (MY 24 through MY 32), with the assimilation of NASA's Mars Reconnaissance

  1. Safe production model for small mines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Calizaya F.; Suryanto S.

    2008-01-01

    Presented a "safe production model" that can be adopted by small mine opera-tors to achieve their production targets safely and efficiently. The model consists of eightelements ranging from management commitment and leadership to safety account-abilityand communication. The model is developed considering the mine operators' resourcelimitations and the workers' training needs. The study concludes with a summary of asample survey that is conducted to validate the model and estimate a parameter for eachmine and determine its position in the safe production scale.

  2. Inconsistencies between long-term trends in storminess derived from the 20CR reanalysis and observations

    CERN Document Server

    Krueger, Oliver; Feser, Frauke; Weisse, Ralf

    2012-01-01

    Global atmospheric reanalyses have become a common tool for both the validation of climate models and diagnostic studies, such as assessing climate variability and long-term trends. Presently, the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), which assimilates only surface pressure reports, sea-ice, and sea surface temperature distributions, represents the longest global reanalysis dataset available covering the period from 1871 to the present. Currently, the 20CR dataset is extensively used for the assessment of climate variability and trends. Here, we compare the variability and long-term trends in Northeast Atlantic storminess derived from 20CR and from observations. A well established storm index derived from pressure observations over a relatively densely monitored marine area is used. It is found that both, variability and long-term trends derived from 20CR and from observations, are inconsistent. In particular, both time series show opposing trends during the first half of the 20th century. Only for the more recent ...

  3. Winter atmospheric circulation over Europe and the North Atlantic: an intercomparison of reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stryhal, Jan; Huth, Radan

    2016-04-01

    Research on atmospheric circulation has been quite common lately and includes e.g. analyses of circulation properties and trends in both reanalysis datasets and circulation model outputs. In many cases, however, studies have been restricted to only one set of data and only one research method. The goal of our present work is to compare the properties of winter European atmospheric circulation in five reanalysis datasets (ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, JRA-55, ERA-20C, and 20CRv2) over 1961-2000. The main research method we use is an automated circulation classification. In order to bring robust results, however, eight distinct circulation type calendars are defined based on the reanalysed daily mean sea level pressure patterns, for each of the reanalyses and over the total of eight European domains. Subsequently, basic properties of these calendars are computed and compared. Lastly, we show how results of GCM validation can vary if different reanalyses are taken as a benchmark.

  4. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  5. Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service using Reanalysis data: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, D.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; McInerney, M.; Tamkin, G.; Potter, G. L.; Thompson, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) maintains advanced data capabilities and facilities that allow researchers to access the enormous volume of data generated by weather and climate models. The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NCCS are merging their efforts to provide Climate Analytics-as-a-Service for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to netCDF4 file format following the CMIP5 Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention prior to be sequenced into the Hadoop Distributed File System ( HDFS ). A small set of operations that represent a common starting point in many analysis workflows was then created: min, max, sum, count, variance and average. In this example, Reanalysis data exploration was performed with the use of Hadoop MapReduce and accessibility was achieved using the Climate Data Service(CDS) application programming interface (API) created at NCCS. This API provides a uniform treatment of large amount of data. In this case study, we have limited our exploration to 2 variables, temperature and precipitation, using 3 operations, min, max and avg and using 30-year of Reanalysis data for 3 regions of the world: global, polar, subtropical.

  6. Models and Modelling Tools for Chemical Product and Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    2016-01-01

    The design, development and reliability of a chemical product and the process to manufacture it, need to be consistent with the end-use characteristics of the desired product. One of the common ways to match the desired product-process characteristics is through trial and error based experiments......-based framework is that in the design, development and/or manufacturing of a chemical product-process, the knowledge of the applied phenomena together with the product-process design details can be provided with diverse degrees of abstractions and details. This would allow the experimental resources......, are the needed models for such a framework available? Or, are modelling tools that can help to develop the needed models available? Can such a model-based framework provide the needed model-based work-flows matching the requirements of the specific chemical product-process design problems? What types of models...

  7. Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features......We report on the suitability of statistical model checking for the analysis of quantitative properties of product line models by an extended treatment of earlier work by the authors. The type of analysis that can be performed includes the likelihood of specific product behaviour, the expected...... and on behaviour and with advanced feature installation options. QFLan is a rich process-algebraic specification language whose operational behaviour interacts with a store of constraints, neatly separating product configuration from product behaviour. The resulting probabilistic configurations and probabilistic...

  8. Product Modelling for Model-Based Maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houten, van F.J.A.M.; Tomiyama, T.; Salomons, O.W.

    1998-01-01

    The paper describes the fundamental concepts of maintenance and the role that information technology can play in the support of maintenance activities. Function-Behaviour-State modelling is used to describe faults and deterioration of mechanisms in terms of user perception and measurable quantities.

  9. Design and validation of MEDRYS, a Mediterranean Sea reanalysis over 1992–2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamon

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The French research community on the Mediterranean Sea modelling and the French operational ocean forecasting center Mercator Océan have gathered their skill and expertise in physical oceanography, ocean modelling, atmospheric forcings and data assimilation, to carry out a MEDiterranean sea ReanalYsiS (MEDRYS at high resolution for the period 1992–2013. The ocean model used is NEMOMED12, a Mediterranean configuration of NEMO with a 1/12° (∼ 7 km horizontal resolution and 75 vertical z levels with partial steps. At the surface, it is forced by a new atmospheric forcing dataset (ALDERA, coming from a dynamical downscaling of the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis by the regional climate model ALADIN-Climate with a 12 km horizontal and 3 h temporal resolutions. This configuration is used to carry a 34 year free simulation over the period 1979–2013 (NM12-FREE which is the initial state of the reanalysis in October 1992. The first version of MEDRYS uses the existing Mercator Océan data assimilation system SAM that is based on a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3-D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. Altimeter data, satellite SST and temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated. This paper describes the configuration we used to perform the MEDRYS simulation. We then first validate the skills of the data assimilation system. It is shown that the data assimilation restores a good averaged temperature and salinity in intermediate layers compared to the free simulation. No particular biases are identified in the bottom layers. However, the reanalysis show slight positive biases of 0.02 psu and 0.15 °C above 150 m depth. In the validation stage, it is also shown that the assimilation allows to better reproduce water, heat and salt transports through the Strait of Gibraltar. Finally, the ability of the reanalysis to represent the sea surface high frequency variability is pointed out.

  10. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  11. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  12. C-GLORSv5: an improved multipurpose global ocean eddy-permitting physical reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona

    2016-11-01

    Global ocean reanalyses combine in situ and satellite ocean observations with a general circulation ocean model to estimate the time-evolving state of the ocean, and they represent a valuable tool for a variety of applications, ranging from climate monitoring and process studies to downstream applications, initialization of long-range forecasts and regional studies. The purpose of this paper is to document the recent upgrade of C-GLORS (version 5), the latest ocean reanalysis produced at the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) that covers the meteorological satellite era (1980-present) and it is being updated in delayed time mode. The reanalysis is run at eddy-permitting resolution (1/4° horizontal resolution and 50 vertical levels) and consists of a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system, a surface nudging and a bias correction scheme. With respect to the previous version (v4), C-GLORSv5 contains a number of improvements. In particular, background- and observation-error covariances have been retuned, allowing a flow-dependent inflation in the globally averaged background-error variance. An additional constraint on the Arctic sea-ice thickness was introduced, leading to a realistic ice volume evolution. Finally, the bias correction scheme and the initialization strategy were retuned. Results document that the new reanalysis outperforms the previous version in many aspects, especially in representing the variability of global heat content and associated steric sea level in the last decade, the top 80 m ocean temperature biases and root mean square errors, and the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation; slight worsening in the high-latitude salinity and deep ocean temperature emerge though, providing the motivation for further tuning of the reanalysis system. The dataset is available in NetCDF format at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.857995.

  13. Production management using the EFQM Excellence Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janja Škedel

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Research Question (RQ: Comparison of production management using the EFQM Excellence Model. Purpose: The aim of the research is based on a comparison of production management using the EFQM Excellence Model, to establish identity and difference. The aim is to improve the management of production and by using the model closer to excellence. Method: An identification method of benchmarking. Results: The results show tolerance, which represent an opportunity to improve production management with excellence. Organization: If we take into account the results of the organization, this would be an asset to the organization. Society: Method comparisons can also be used in the wider environment. Originality: The survey is unique and the first of its kind in the manufacturing organization. Limitations/Future Research: With this research we will gain improvements in production management through design excellence.

  14. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  15. Modelling Configuration Knowledge in Heterogeneous Product Families

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Queva, Matthieu Stéphane Benoit; Männistö, Tomi; Ricci, Laurent

    2011-01-01

    Product configuration systems play an important role in the development of Mass Customisation. The configuration of complex product families may nowadays involve multiple design disciplines, e.g. hardware, software and services. In this paper, we present a conceptual approach for modelling the va...

  16. A high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bollmeyer, Christoph; Keller, Jan; Ohlwein, Christian; Wahl, Sabrina

    2015-04-01

    Within the Hans-Ertel-Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), the climate monitoring branch concentrates efforts on the assessment and analysis of regional climate in Germany and Europe. In joint cooperation with DWD (German Weather Service), a high-resolution reanalysis system based on the COSMO model has been developed. Reanalyses gain more and more importance as a source of meteorological information for many purposes and applications. Several global reanalyses projects (e.g., ERA, MERRA, CSFR, JMA9) produce and verify these data sets to provide time series as long as possible combined with a high data quality. Due to a spatial resolution down to 50-70km and 3-hourly temporal output, they are not suitable for small scale problems (e.g., regional climate assessment, meso-scale NWP verification, input for subsequent models such as river runoff simulations, renewable energy applications). The implementation of regional reanalyses based on a limited area model along with a data assimilation scheme is able to generate reanalysis data sets with high spatio-temporal resolution. The work presented here focuses on two regional reanalyses for Europe and Germany. The European reanalysis COSMO-REA6 matches the CORDEX EURO-11 specifications, albeit at a higher spatial resolution, i.e., 0.055° (6km) instead of 0.11° (12km). Nested into COSMO-REA6 is COSMO-REA2, a convective-scale reanalysis with 2km resolution for Germany. COSMO-REA6 comprises the assimilation of observational data using the existing nudging scheme of COSMO and is complemented by a special soil moisture analysis and boundary conditions given by ERA-Interim data. COSMO-REA2 also uses the nudging scheme complemented by a latent heat nudging of radar information. The reanalysis data set currently covers 17 years (1997-2013) for COSMO-REA6 and 4 years (2010-2013) for COSMO-REA2 with a very large set of output variables and a high temporal output step of hourly 3D-fields and quarter-hourly 2D-fields. The evaluation

  17. Modeling Fission Product Sorption in Graphite Structures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szlufarska, Izabela [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Morgan, Dane [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Allen, Todd [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

    2013-04-08

    The goal of this project is to determine changes in adsorption and desorption of fission products to/from nuclear-grade graphite in response to a changing chemical environment. First, the project team will employ principle calculations and thermodynamic analysis to predict stability of fission products on graphite in the presence of structural defects commonly observed in very high- temperature reactor (VHTR) graphites. Desorption rates will be determined as a function of partial pressure of oxygen and iodine, relative humidity, and temperature. They will then carry out experimental characterization to determine the statistical distribution of structural features. This structural information will yield distributions of binding sites to be used as an input for a sorption model. Sorption isotherms calculated under this project will contribute to understanding of the physical bases of the source terms that are used in higher-level codes that model fission product transport and retention in graphite. The project will include the following tasks: Perform structural characterization of the VHTR graphite to determine crystallographic phases, defect structures and their distribution, volume fraction of coke, and amount of sp2 versus sp3 bonding. This information will be used as guidance for ab initio modeling and as input for sorptivity models; Perform ab initio calculations of binding energies to determine stability of fission products on the different sorption sites present in nuclear graphite microstructures. The project will use density functional theory (DFT) methods to calculate binding energies in vacuum and in oxidizing environments. The team will also calculate stability of iodine complexes with fission products on graphite sorption sites; Model graphite sorption isotherms to quantify concentration of fission products in graphite. The binding energies will be combined with a Langmuir isotherm statistical model to predict the sorbed concentration of fission

  18. Combined effect of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking in the risk of head and neck cancers: a re-analysis of case-control studies using bi-dimensional spline models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Maso, Luigino; Torelli, Nicola; Biancotto, Elisa; Di Maso, Matteo; Gini, Andrea; Franchin, Gianni; Levi, Fabio; La Vecchia, Carlo; Serraino, Diego; Polesel, Jerry

    2016-04-01

    The synergistic effect of tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption on the risk of head and neck cancers has been mainly investigated as a cross-product of categorical exposure, thus leading to loss of information. We propose a bi-dimensional logistic spline model to investigate the interacting dose-response relationship of two continuous exposures (i.e., ethanol intake and tobacco smoking) on the risk of head and neck cancers, representing results through three-dimensional graphs. This model was applied to a pool of hospital-based case-control studies on head and neck cancers conducted in Italy and in the Vaud Swiss Canton between 1982 and 2000, including 1569 cases and 3147 controls. Among never drinkers and for all levels of ethanol intake, the risk of head and neck cancers steeply increased with increasing smoking intensity, starting from 1 cigarette/day. The risk associated to ethanol intake increased with incrementing exposure among smokers, and a threshold effect at approximately 50 g/day emerged among never smokers. Compared to abstainers from both tobacco and alcohol consumption, the combined exposure to ethanol and/or cigarettes led to a steep increase of cancer risk up to a 35-fold higher risk (95 % confidence interval 27.30-43.61) among people consuming 84 g/day of ethanol and 10 cigarettes/day. The highest risk was observed at the highest levels of alcohol and tobacco consumption. Our findings confirmed a combined effect of tobacco smoking and alcohol drinking on head and neck cancers risk, providing evidence that bi-dimensional spline models could be a feasible and flexible method to explore the pattern of risks associated to two interacting continuous-exposure variables.

  19. Model based sustainable production of biomethane

    OpenAIRE

    Biernacki, Piotr

    2014-01-01

    The main intention of this dissertation was to evaluate sustainable production of biomethane with use of mathematical modelling. To achieve this goal, widely acknowledged models like Anaerobic Digestion Model No.1 (ADM1), describing anaerobic digestion, and electrolyte Non-Random Two Liquid Model (eNRTL), for gas purification, were utilized. The experimental results, batch anaerobic digestion of different substrates and carbon dioxide solubility in 2-(Ethylamino)ethanol, were used to determin...

  20. Dynamical Model of Weak Pion Production Reactions

    CERN Document Server

    Sato, T; Lee, T S H

    2003-01-01

    The dynamical model of pion electroproduction has been extended to investigate the weak pion production reactions. The predicted cross sections of neutrino-induced pion production reactions are in good agreement with the existing data. We show that the renormalized(dressed) axial N-$\\Delta$ form factor contains large dynamical pion cloud effects and this renormalization effects are crucial in getting agreement with the data. We conclude that the N-$\\Delta$ transitions predicted by the constituent quark model are consistent with the existing neutrino induced pion production data in the $\\Delta$ region.

  1. Product modelling in the seafood industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan

    1997-01-01

    assessments, speed up the process and ensure a constant renewal of the seafood products. The objective, therefore, is to estimate the suitability of the CE, and especially CE through product modelling, in the seafood industry as a means to obtain an integration of the entire chain, i.e., a business and market...... based integration obtained by the CE approach and tools. It is described how the knowledge and information of a seafood product can be modelled by using object oriented techniques.......The paper addresses the aspects of Concurrent Engineering (CE) as a means to obtain integrated product development in the seafood industry. It is assumed that the future New Product Development (NPD) in seafood industry companies will shift from being retailer driven and reactive to be more company...

  2. A deterministic aggregate production planning model considering quality of products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madadi, Najmeh; Yew Wong, Kuan

    2013-06-01

    Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is a medium-term planning which is concerned with the lowest-cost method of production planning to meet customers' requirements and to satisfy fluctuating demand over a planning time horizon. APP problem has been studied widely since it was introduced and formulated in 1950s. However, in several conducted studies in the APP area, most of the researchers have concentrated on some common objectives such as minimization of cost, fluctuation in the number of workers, and inventory level. Specifically, maintaining quality at the desirable level as an objective while minimizing cost has not been considered in previous studies. In this study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-objective mixed integer linear programming model that serves those companies aiming to incur the minimum level of operational cost while maintaining quality at an acceptable level. In order to obtain the solution to the multi-objective model, the Fuzzy Goal Programming approach and max-min operator of Bellman-Zadeh were applied to the model. At the final step, IBM ILOG CPLEX Optimization Studio software was used to obtain the experimental results based on the data collected from an automotive parts manufacturing company. The results show that incorporating quality in the model imposes some costs, however a trade-off should be done between the cost resulting from producing products with higher quality and the cost that the firm may incur due to customer dissatisfaction and sale losses.

  3. A comparison of tropopause heights over China between radiosonde and three reanalysis datasets for the period 1979-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui; Li, Zhenchao; Wei, Hong; Zheng, Zhiyuan; Wei, Zhigang

    2016-07-01

    We compared the correspondence of tropopause heights over China calculated from the gridded temperature data provided by the ERA-Interim project, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Projects-1 (NCEP-1), and Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) project with the radiosonde observational data for 1979-2012. The results indicate that the annual mean ERA-Interim, NCEP-1, and JRA-25 tropopause heights are higher than observations by 203, 228, and 293 gpm, respectively. Large positive differences for the majority of subtropical China primarily contribute to this high bias. An error analysis indicates that the internal coherence of the ERA-Interim data is better than that of NCEP-1 or JRA-25. Although JRA-25 was a second-generation reanalysis, the biases of the JRA-25 and NCEP-1 data relative to the observations remain substantially larger than those of the ERA-Interim. Furthermore, a spatial and temporal comparison of trends also indicates that the ERA-Interim tropopause height changes correspond most closely to the observed trends in China. Overall, our comprehensive analysis of the three reanalysis products indicates that on both seasonal and annual bases, the ERA-Interim tropopause heights are closer to the observations than those of the NCEP-1 or JRA-25 reanalyses. Furthermore, the biases are mainly a result of the algorithm that determines the tropopause height, which is limited by the coarse vertical resolution of the input data.

  4. Revised Reynolds Stress and Triple Product Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Michael E.; Lillard, Randolph P.

    2017-01-01

    Revised versions of Lag methodology Reynolds-stress and triple product models are applied to accepted test cases to assess the improvement, or lack thereof, in the prediction capability of the models. The Bachalo-Johnson bump flow is shown as an example for this abstract submission.

  5. Modelling Fungal Fermentations for Enzyme Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albæk, Mads Orla; Gernaey, Krist; Hansen, Morten S.

    We have developed a process model of fungal fed-batch fermentations for enzyme production. In these processes, oxygen transfer rate is limiting and controls the substrate feeding rate. The model has been shown to describe cultivations of both Aspergillus oryzae and Trichoderma reesei strains in 550...

  6. Framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which supports product modelling for mass customization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riis, Jesper; Hansen, Benjamin Loer; Hvam, Lars

    2003-01-01

    The article presents a framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which can be used to support the product modelling process which is needed for developing IT systems. These IT systems are important tools for many companies when they aim at achieving mass customization and pers......The article presents a framework for product knowledge and product related knowledge which can be used to support the product modelling process which is needed for developing IT systems. These IT systems are important tools for many companies when they aim at achieving mass customization...... on experience from product modelling projects in several companies. Among them for example companies manufacturing electronic switchboards, spray dryer systems and air conditioning equipment. The framework is divided into three views: the product knowledge view, the life phase system view and the transformation...... process view (“the meeting”). The persons (rolls) involved in the product modelling process are for example: domain experts, change managers, model managers, project leaders, technical facilitators, process managers and software programmers. They need a framework during the product modelling process...

  7. Behavior and Design Intent Based Product Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    László Horváth

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available A knowledge based modeling of mechanical products is presented for industrial CAD/CAM systems. An active model is proposed that comprise knowledge from modeling procedures, generic part models and engineers. Present day models of mechanical systems do not contain data about the background of human decisions. This situation motivated the authors at their investigations on exchange design intent information between engineers. Their concept was extending of product models to be capable of description of design intent information. Several human-computer and human-human communication issues were considered. The complex communication problem has been divided into four sub-problems, namely communication of human intent source with the computer system, representation of human intent, exchange of intent data between modeling procedures and communication of the represented intent with humans. Paper discusses the scenario of intelligent modeling based engineering. Then key concepts for the application of computational intelligence in computer model based engineering systems are detailed including knowledge driven models as well as areas of their application. Next, behavior based models with intelligent content involving specifications and knowledge for the design processes are emphasized and an active part modeling is proposed and possibilities for its application are outlined. Finally, design intent supported intelligent modeling is discussed.

  8. Reanalysis of UHS Cofrentes; Reanalisis del UHS de CN Cofrentes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez Garcia, G. M.; Arteaga Sualdea, M. A.; Rebollo Garcia, C.; Mota coloma, M.

    2012-07-01

    The purpose of the reanalysis of the UHS is to revalue the cooling flow required for each changer ESW NC Cofrentes, to evacuate thermal loads their H / X, giving credit to lower water temperature UHS reservoir (heat sink ), maintaining the same heat exchange capacity in all H / X.

  9. Syntactic Reconstruction and Reanalysis, Semantic Dead Ends, and Prefrontal Cortex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ken Ramshøj

    2010-01-01

    have been to Paris than […] to Oslo), using pseudo-elliptical structures (‘dead ends’) as control (More people have been to Paris than I have). (ii) Reanalysis in the face of structural ambiguity in syntactic ‘garden paths’, where the parser initially assigns an incorrect structure and is forced...

  10. Transmission, Acquisition, Parameter-Setting, Reanalysis, and Language Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mufwene, Salikoko S.

    2011-01-01

    Jurgen Meisel's (JM) article is literally thought-provoking, especially for the issues that one can raise out of the central position that he develops, viz., "although bilingual acquisition in situations of language contact can be argued to be of significant importance for explanations of grammatical change, reanalysis affecting parameter settings…

  11. Extreme wind atlases of South Africa from global reanalysis data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries; Badger, Jake

    2013-01-01

    Extreme wind atlases of South Africa were developed using three reanalysis data and recently developed approaches. The results are compared with the maps produced using standard wind measurements over the region. It was found that different reanalyses with the same approach provide similar spatia...

  12. Polarisation at HERA. Reanalysis of the HERA II polarimeter data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sobloher, B.; Behnke, T.; Olsson, J.; Pitzl, D.; Schmitt, S.; Tomaszewska, J.; Fabbri, R.

    2012-01-15

    In this technical note we briefly present the analysis of the HERA polarimeters (transversal and longitudinal) as of summer 2011. We present the final reanalysis of the TPOL data, and discuss the systematic uncertainties. A procedure to combine and average LPOL and TPOL data is presented. (orig.)

  13. Assessment of the ECCO2 reanalysis on the representation of Antarctic Bottom Water properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Azaneu

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed the ability of the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean – Phase II (ECCO2 reanalysis to represent the hydrographic properties and variability of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW in the Southern Ocean. We used a twenty-year observational database to perform comparisons of hydrographic properties and reanalysis data for the same time period (1992–2011. In addition, we evaluated four case studies based on current meter data and the AABW volume transport estimates previously reported in the literature. The main Southern Ocean oceanographic features, as well as the characteristic shape of the regional potential temperature–salinity (θ–S diagrams, are adequately represented by the reanalysis. However, the opening of an oceanic polynya in the Weddell Sea Sector, which has been clearly visible since 2005, contributed to an unrealistic representation of the hydrographic properties of the Southern Ocean primarily after 2004. In this sense, our analyses focused on the period that was identified as more reliable (1992–2004. In general, the reanalysis data showed surface waters that were warmer, saltier, and denser than observations, which may have resulted from the absence of Ice Shelf Water and from the overestimation of sea ice concentrations that limit oceanic heat loss during austral winters. Intermediate waters were generally colder, fresher, and denser than observations, whereas deep waters were warmer and less dense. These differences in deep water properties were partially a result of the inability to reproduce the densest AABW variety by reanalysis for most of the analyzed period and also because of the model's relatively coarse vertical resolution. Despite differences in absolute values, the upper AABW limit (γn ≥ 28.27 kg m−3 and AABW occupied area were well represented in the WOCE repeat sections SR2 and SR4 for the studied periods. In section WOCE SR3, however, the estimates from the differences were

  14. Product modelling in the seafood industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan

    1997-01-01

    driven and proactive to comply with the increasing competition, in such a way that the fish processor issues new products covering both the current and especially latent future consumer demands. This implies a need for new systematic approaches in the NPD as procedures and tools, which integrate...... assessments, speed up the process and ensure a constant renewal of the seafood products. The objective, therefore, is to estimate the suitability of the CE, and especially CE through product modelling, in the seafood industry as a means to obtain an integration of the entire chain, i.e., a business and market...... based integration obtained by the CE approach and tools. It is described how the knowledge and information of a seafood product can be modelled by using object oriented techniques....

  15. Product with service, technology with business model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service-S...... promising concept beyond PSS design; via an integrated development of technology and business model. This can be of particular interest for further research, especially due to its high freedom for designers....

  16. A chaotic agricultural machines production growth model

    OpenAIRE

    Jablanović, Vesna D.

    2011-01-01

    Chaos theory, as a set of ideas, explains the structure in aperiodic, unpredictable dynamic systems. The basic aim of this paper is to provide a relatively simple agricultural machines production growth model that is capable of generating stable equilibrium, cycles, or chaos. A key hypothesis of this work is based on the idea that the coefficient π = 1 + α plays a crucial role in explaining local stability of the agricultural machines production, where α is an autonomous growth rate of the ag...

  17. Cross-validation of satellite products over France through their integration into a land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvet, Jean-Christophe; Barbu, Alina; Carrer, Dominique; Meurey, Catherine

    2014-05-01

    Long (more than 30 years) time series of satellite-derived products over land are now available. They concern Essential Climate Variables (ECV) such as LAI, FAPAR, surface albedo, and soil moisture. The direct validation of such Climate Data Records (CDR) is not easy, as in situ observations are limited in space and time. Therefore, indirect validation has a key role. It consists in comparing the products with similar preexisting products derived from satellite observations or from land surface model (LSM) simulations. The most advanced indirect validation technique consists in integrating the products into a LSM using a data assimilation scheme. The obtained reanalysis accounts for the synergies of the various upstream products and provides statistics which can be used to monitor the quality of the assimilated observations. Meteo-France develops the ISBA-A-gs generic LSM able to represent the diurnal cycle of the surface fluxes together with the seasonal, interannual and decadal variability of the vegetation biomass. The LSM is embedded in the SURFEX modeling platform together with a simplified extended Kalman filter. These tools form a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS). The current version of the LDAS assimilates SPOT-VGT LAI and ASCAT surface soil moisture (SSM) products over France (8km x 8km), and a passive monitoring of albedo, FAPAR and Land Surface temperature (LST) is performed (i.e., the simulated values are compared with the satellite products). The LDAS-France system is used in the European Copernicus Global Land Service (http://land.copernicus.eu/global/) to monitor the quality of upstream products. The LDAS generates statistics whose trends can be analyzed in order to detect possible drifts in the quality of the products: (1) for LAI and SSM, metrics derived from the active monitoring (i.e. assimilation) such as innovations (observations vs. model forecast), residuals (observations vs. analysis), and increments (analysis vs. model forecast) ; (2

  18. Clinical Productivity System - A Decision Support Model

    CERN Document Server

    Bennett, Casey C

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: This goal of this study was to evaluate the effects of a data-driven clinical productivity system that leverages Electronic Health Record (EHR) data to provide productivity decision support functionality in a real-world clinical setting. The system was implemented for a large behavioral health care provider seeing over 75,000 distinct clients a year. Design/methodology/approach: The key metric in this system is a "VPU", which simultaneously optimizes multiple aspects of clinical care. The resulting mathematical value of clinical productivity was hypothesized to tightly link the organization's performance to its expectations and, through transparency and decision support tools at the clinician level, affect significant changes in productivity, quality, and consistency relative to traditional models of clinical productivity. Findings: In only 3 months, every single variable integrated into the VPU system showed significant improvement, including a 30% rise in revenue, 10% rise in clinical percentage, a...

  19. A model for methane production in sewers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaosakul, Thitirat; Koottatep, Thammarat; Polprasert, Chongrak

    2014-09-19

    Most sewers in developing countries are combined sewers which receive stormwater and effluent from septic tanks or cesspools of households and buildings. Although the wastewater strength in these sewers is usually lower than those in developed countries, due to improper construction and maintenance, the hydraulic retention time (HRT) could be relatively long and resulting considerable greenhouse gas (GHG) production. This study proposed an empirical model to predict the quantity of methane production in gravity-flow sewers based on relevant parameters such as surface area to volume ratio (A/V) of sewer, hydraulic retention time (HRT) and wastewater temperature. The model was developed from field survey data of gravity-flow sewers located in a peri-urban area, central Thailand and validated with field data of a sewer system of the Gold Coast area, Queensland, Australia. Application of this model to improve construction and maintenance of gravity-flow sewers to minimize GHG production and reduce global warming is presented.

  20. Application of earth observation products for hydrological modeling of the Oum Er Rbia river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    López López, Patricia; Strohmeier, Stefan; Haddad, Mira; Sutanudjaja, Edwin; Karrou, Mohammed; Sterk, Geert; Schellekens, Jaap; Bierkens, Marc

    2016-04-01

    The increasing water demand over recent decades together with the climate change impacts on water resources lead to a growing shortage of water availability. Investigating and developing novel strategies to assess and manage water resources have turned into a key issue, leading to increasing efforts to enhance and improve hydrological models and datasets. Despite campaigns to increase the quality and the temporal and spatial availability of ground-based hydro-meteorological data, many river basins around the world still have a limited number of in-situ observations. This in turn limits the application of hydrological models. Recently developed global earth observation products may unlock a greater capability of basin scale hydrological modeling for advanced water management. This study aims to evaluate the applicability of earth observation products for hydrological model simulation in comparison with in-situ data for water resources management and water allocation of the Moroccan Oum Er Rbia river basin. Two different hydrological models (SWAT and PCR-GLOBWB) were applied to inter-compare various combinations of in-situ and global earth observation data. Global earth observation products were obtained from various sources including meteorological data from the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data, remotely sensed ESA CCI surface soil moisture Soil Water Index combined product and evapotranspiration data from the FLUXNET global monitoring network. The daily data were provided for the time period from 1979 to 2012. Due to the insufficient in-situ discharge observations available in the basin, local calibration of both hydrological models was based on global evapotranspiration and soil moisture data, covering additional aspects of the hydrological cycle to further reduce modeling uncertainty. Preliminary results indicate that even though significant differences in model estimates were found between SWAT and PCR-GLOBWB, the remotely

  1. STEP - Product Model Data Sharing and Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroszynski, Uri

    1998-01-01

    - Product Data Representation and Exchange", featuring at present some 30 released parts, and growing continuously. Many of the parts are Application Protocols (AP). This article presents an overview of STEP, based upon years of involvement in three ESPRIT projects, which contributed to the development......During the last fifteen years, a very large effort to standardize the product models employed in product design, manufacturing and other life-cycle phases has been undertaken. This effort has the acronym STEP, and resulted in the International Standard ISO-10303 "Industrial Automation Systems...

  2. Modeling and analysis of biomass production systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mishoe, J.W.; Lorber, M.N.; Peart, R.M.; Fluck, R.C.; Jones, J.W.

    1984-01-01

    BIOMET is an interactive simulation model that is used to analyze specific biomass and methane production systems. The system model is composed of crop growth models, harvesting, transportation, conversion and economic submodels. By use of menus the users can configure the structure and set selected parameters of the system to analyze the effects of variables within the component models. For example, simulations of a water hyacinth system resulted in yields of 63, 48 and 37 mg/ha/year for different harvest schedules. For napier grass, unit methane costs were $3.04, $2.86 and $2.98 for various yields of biomass. 10 references.

  3. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production

    OpenAIRE

    María Rosa Castro; Marcelo Eduardo Echegaray; Rosa Ana Rodríguez; Stella Maris Udaquiola

    2010-01-01

    Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was ...

  4. Design, product structuring and modelling of mechatronic products and systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conrad, Finn; Sørensen, Torben

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology offers software and hardware for improvement of the engineering design, structuring and control systems, and industrial applications. The latest progress in IT makes integration of an overall design and manufacturing IT- concept feasible and commercially attractive. An IT......-tool concept for modelling, simulation and design of mechatronic products and systems is proposed in this paper. It built on results from a Danish mechatronic research program on intelligent motion control as well as from the Esprit project SWING on IT-tools for rapid prototyping of fluid power components...

  5. Design, product structuring and modelling of mechatronic products and systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conrad, Finn; Sørensen, Torben

    2003-01-01

    Information Technology offers software and hardware for improvement of the engineering design, structuring and control systems, and industrial applications. The latest progress in IT makes integration of an overall design and manufacturing IT- concept feasible and commercially attractive. An IT......-tool concept for modelling, simulation and design of mechatronic products and systems is proposed in this paper. It built on results from a Danish mechatronic research program on intelligent motion control as well as from the Esprit project SWING on IT-tools for rapid prototyping of fluid power components...

  6. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  7. Applications products of aviation forecast models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garthner, John P.

    1988-01-01

    A service called the Optimum Path Aircraft Routing System (OPARS) supplies products based on output data from the Naval Oceanographic Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), a model run on a Cyber-205 computer. Temperatures and winds are extracted from the surface to 100 mb, approximately 55,000 ft. Forecast winds are available in six-hour time steps.

  8. Pebble Bed Reactor Dust Production Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abderrafi M. Ougouag; Joshua J. Cogliati

    2008-09-01

    The operation of pebble bed reactors, including fuel circulation, can generate graphite dust, which in turn could be a concern for internal components; and to the near field in the remote event of a break in the coolant circuits. The design of the reactor system must, therefore, take the dust into account and the operation must include contingencies for dust removal and for mitigation of potential releases. Such planning requires a proper assessment of the dust inventory. This paper presents a predictive model of dust generation in an operating pebble bed with recirculating fuel. In this preliminary work the production model is based on the use of the assumption of proportionality between the dust production and the normal force and distance traveled. The model developed in this work uses the slip distances and the inter-pebble forces computed by the authors’ PEBBLES. The code, based on the discrete element method, simulates the relevant static and kinetic friction interactions between the pebbles as well as the recirculation of the pebbles through the reactor vessel. The interaction between pebbles and walls of the reactor vat is treated using the same approach. The amount of dust produced is proportional to the wear coefficient for adhesive wear (taken from literature) and to the slip volume, the product of the contact area and the slip distance. The paper will compare the predicted volume with the measured production rates. The simulation tallies the dust production based on the location of creation. Two peak production zones from intra pebble forces are predicted within the bed. The first zone is located near the pebble inlet chute due to the speed of the dropping pebbles. The second peak zone occurs lower in the reactor with increased pebble contact force due to the weight of supported pebbles. This paper presents the first use of a Discrete Element Method simulation of pebble bed dust production.

  9. Investigating a solar influence on cloud cover using the North American Regional Reanalysis data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krahenbuhl Daniel Scott

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The controversial connection between cosmic rays, solar activity, and cloud cover is investigated using a climatological reconstructed reanalysis product: the North American Regional Reanalysis which provides high-resolution, low, mid-level, high, and total cloud cover data over a Lambert conformal conic projection permitting land/ocean discrimination. Pearson’s product-moment regional correlations were obtained between monthly cloud cover data and solar variability indicators, cosmic ray neutron monitors, several climatological indices, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO, and between cloud layers. Regions of the mid-latitude oceans exhibited a positive correlation with cosmic ray flux. Additionally, this maritime low cloud cover exhibits the only failed correlation significance with other altitudes. The cross correlation reveals that cloud cover is positively correlated everywhere but for ocean low cloud cover, supporting the unique response of the marine layer. The results of this investigation suggest that with the assumption that solar forcing does impact cloud cover, measurements of solar activity exhibits a slightly higher correlation than GCRs. The only instance where GCRs exhibit a positive regional correlation with cloud cover is for maritime low clouds. The AMO exerts the greatest control of cloud cover in the NARR domain.

  10. Intercomparison of an improved 20th Century reanalysis version 2c dataset spanning 1850 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compo, G. P.; Whitaker, J. S.; Sardeshmukh, P. D.; Giese, B. S.; Brohan, P.

    2014-12-01

    The historical reanalysis dataset generated by NOAA ESRL and the University of Colorado CIRES, the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2 (20CRv2), is a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning 1871-2012, assimilating only surface pressure and using monthly Hadley Centre SST and sea ice distributions (HadISST1.1) as boundary conditions. It has been made possible through collaboration with GCOS, WCRP, and the ACRE initiative. It is chiefly motivated by a need to provide an observational validation dataset, with quantified uncertainties, for assessments of climate model simulations of the 20th century, with emphasis on the statistics of daily weather. It uses, together with an NCEP global numerical weather prediction (NWP) land/atmosphere model to provide background "first guess" fields, an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) data assimilation method. This yields a global analysis every 6 hours as the most likely state of the atmosphere, and also yields the uncertainty of that analysis. Improvements in the new version ("2c") include an extension back to 1850 and the specification of new boundary conditions. These come from new fields of monthly COBE-SST2 sea ice concentrations and an ensemble of daily Simple Ocean Data Assimilation with Sparse Input (SODAsi.2c) sea surface temperatures. SODAsi.2c itself was forced with 20CR, allowing these boundary conditions to be more consistent with the atmospheric reanalysis. Millions of additional pressure observations contained in the new International Surface Pressure Databank version 3 are also included. These improvements result in 20CR version "2c" having comparable or better analyses, as suggested by improved 24 hour forecast skill, more realistic uncertainty in near-surface air temperature, and a reduction in spurious centennial trends in the tropical and polar regions. An intercomparison with ERA-Interim, MERRA, and JRA-55 reanalyses that assimilate all available upper-air and satellite observations will

  11. Precipitation and snow cover in the Himalaya: from reanalysis to regional climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ménégoz

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We applied a Regional Climate Model (RCM to simulate precipitation and snow cover over the Himalaya, between March 2000 and December 2002. Due to its higher resolution, our model simulates a more realistic spatial variability of wind and precipitation than those of the reanalysis of the European Centre of Medium range Weather Forecast (ECMWF used as lateral boundaries. In this region, we found very large discrepancies between the estimations of precipitation provided by reanalysis, rain gauges networks, satellite observations, and our RCM simulation. Our model clearly underestimates precipitation at the foothills of the Himalaya and in its eastern part. However, our simulation provides a first estimation of liquid and solid precipitation in high altitude areas, where satellite and rain gauge networks are not very reliable. During the two years of simulation, our model resembles the snow cover extent and duration quite accurately in these areas. Both snow accumulation and snow cover duration differ widely along the Himalaya: snowfall can occur during the whole year in western Himalaya, due to both summer monsoon and mid-latitude low pressure systems bringing moisture into this region. In Central Himalaya and on the Tibetan Plateau, a much more marked dry season occurs from October to March. Snow cover does not have a pronounced seasonal cycle in these regions, since it depends both on the quite variable duration of the monsoon and on the rare but possible occurrence of snowfall during the extra-monsoon period.

  12. Regional Evaluation of ERA-40 Reanalysis Data with Marine Atmospheric Observations in the North Sea Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils H. Schade

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available An important task of the departmental research programme KLIWAS is the evaluation and assessment of climate model results by means of a comprehensive reference data set. For validation purposes, and to create a North Sea wide maritime atmospheric and oceanographic reference database, in-situ observations of the Centre for Global Marine Meteorological Observations (GZS of the National Meteorological Service DWD have been compared to the ERA-40 reanalysis. ERA-40 is used as forcing for the hindcast runs of the ENSEMBLES regional climate models, which is used within the KLIWAS model chain. The GZS hosts a regularly updated, quality controlled, world-wide data bank of weather observations from the oceans. It includes data from all sorts of observation platforms as Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS, drifting and moored buoys, light vessels, and offshore platforms, either from real-time (RT via the Global Telecommunication System (GTS or from international exchange in delayed-mode (DM. In addition to the automated set of programs applied for high quality control, erroneous data are also manually corrected to a certain extent, if possible. To assure reliable statistics for the evaluation, the corrected observations are gridded to a resolution of 2.25 degree, so each grid box includes four ERA-40 reanalysis grid points. The temporal coverage of the grid boxes depends on shipping routes and the positions of automated systems. Observed air temperatures, covering a period of 40 years (1961?2000, show noticeable differences to the reanalysis data for all land influenced boxes, specifically in the winter months. The same differences can be found if ERA-40 data alone are compared between land- and sea facing boxes. They can not be found in GZS data. It can be assumed that the differences are not resulting from measurement errors or uncertain fraction variabilities, since they are small during the winter months. A comparison of the differences basing on the 1981

  13. Decision models in designing flexible production systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florescu Adriana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flexible production system is a complex whole that raise some issues in terms of its design and in relation to the conditions for implementing it. To implement a flexible production system configuration must be found that satisfies both economic and system performance requirements. The configuration which best meet the objectives of introducing a flexible production system must be sought in the set of alternatives defined and evaluated. In this paper we present a methodology of realising the configuration and complex evaluation of the analyzed system. It will be developed models which generate new alternative configurations, optimization and evaluation models of the performance of the flexible production system. This will create a framework for interactive decision support, user-oriented that can be used by management to solve this selection problem. The applicative character of the study consist in tracking of the technological process in real time using the developed software package on the designed system, based on mathematical models for configuration and optimization of the system.

  14. Analysis of Imprecision in Incurred Sample Reanalysis for Small Molecules

    OpenAIRE

    Subramaniam, Sriram; Patel, Devvrat; Davit, Barbara M.; Conner, Dale P.

    2014-01-01

    Over the years, incurred sample (IS) reanalysis (ISR) has become a tool to confirm the reliability of bioanalytical measurements. The recommendation for ISR acceptance criterion for small molecules is at least 67% of ISR samples that have reanalyzed concentrations within 20% of their original concentrations when normalized to their means. To understand the relevance of the ISR acceptance criterion and sample size requirements, simulated ISR studies evaluated the probability of ISR studies pas...

  15. Modelling the ATP production in mitochondria

    CERN Document Server

    Saa, Alberto

    2012-01-01

    We revisit here the mathematical model for ATP production in mitochondria introduced recently by Bertram, Pedersen, Luciani, and Sherman (BPLS) as a simplification of the more complete but intricate Magnus and Keizer's model. We correct some inaccuracies in the BPLS original approximations and then analyze some of the dynamical properties of the model. We infer from exhaustive numerical explorations that the enhanced BPLS equations have a unique attractor fixed point for physiologically acceptable ranges of mitochondrial variables and respiration inputs. We determine, in the stationary regime, the dependence of the mitochondrial variables on the respiration inputs, namely the cytosolic concentration of calcium ${\\rm Ca}_{\\rm c}$ and the substrate fructose 1,6-bisphosphate FBP. The same effect of calcium saturation reported for the original BPLS model is observed here. We find out, however, an interesting non-stationary effect: the inertia of the model tends to increase considerably for high concentrations of ...

  16. Streamlining environmental product declarations: a stage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Elisabeth; Lefebvre, Louis A.; Talbot, Stephane; Le Hen, Gael

    2001-02-01

    General public environmental awareness and education is increasing, therefore stimulating the demand for reliable, objective and comparable information about products' environmental performances. The recently published standard series ISO 14040 and ISO 14025 are normalizing the preparation of Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) containing comprehensive information relevant to a product's environmental impact during its life cycle. So far, only a few environmentally leading manufacturing organizations have experimented the preparation of EPDs (mostly from Europe), demonstrating its great potential as a marketing weapon. However the preparation of EPDs is a complex process, requiring collection and analysis of massive amounts of information coming from disparate sources (suppliers, sub-contractors, etc.). In a foreseeable future, the streamlining of the EPD preparation process will require product manufacturers to adapt their information systems (ERP, MES, SCADA) in order to make them capable of gathering, and transmitting the appropriate environmental information. It also requires strong functional integration all along the product supply chain in order to ensure that all the information is made available in a standardized and timely manner. The goal of the present paper is two fold: first to propose a transitional model towards green supply chain management and EPD preparation; second to identify key technologies and methodologies allowing to streamline the EPD process and subsequently the transition toward sustainable product development

  17. Modeling of continuous strip production by rheocasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumiya, T.; Flemings, M. C.

    1981-03-01

    A process was experimentally and mathematically modeled for continuous and direct production of metal strip from its molten state by the use of Rheocasting. The process comprises 1) continuous production of a Rheocast semisolid alloy, and 2) direct shaping of the semisolid into strip. Sn-15 pct Pb was used as the modeling alloy. Crack formation and surface quality of the strip produced depend on fraction solid and deformation force. Continuous, sound strip could be obtained with good surface quality when fraction solid was between 0.50 and 0.70 and deformation force did not exceed a given maximum. Sheet thickness depends on deformation force, fraction solid, rotor rate of Rheocaster and production line speed. At constant deformation force, sheet thickness increases as fraction solid increases, rotor rate decreases and line speed is reduced. Sheet thickness is larger in the center than in the edge, but the difference is reduced by applying edgers. Some segregation of lead toward the edges is observed, and the segregation increases as amount of deformation is increased. A mathematical model for heat flow, solidification and deformation was constructed. The model predicts the point of completion of solidification in the strip and sheet thickness as a function of deformation force and line speed. Calculations are in good agreement with experimental results.

  18. Modeling of continuous strip production by rheocasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsumiya, T.; Flemings, M.C.

    1981-03-01

    A process was experimentally and mathematically modeled for continuous and direct production of metal strip from its molten state by the use of Rheocasting. The process comprises 1) continuous production of a Rheocast semisolid alloy, and 2) direct shaping of the semisolid into strip. Sn-15 pct Pb was used as the modeling alloy. Crack formation and surface quality of the strip produced depend on fraction solid and deformation force. Continuous, sound strip could be obtained with good surface quality when fraction solid was between 0.50 and 0.70 and deformation force did not exceed a given maximum. Sheet thickness depends on deformation force, fraction solid, rotor rate of Rheocaster and production line speed. At constant deformation force, sheet thickness increases as fraction solid increases, rotor rate decreases and line speed is reduced. Sheet thickness is larger in the center than in the edge, but the difference is reduced by applying edgers. Some segregation of lead toward the edges is observed, ad the segregation increases as amount of deformation is increased. A mathematical model for heat flow, solidification and deformation was constructed. The model predicts the point of completion of solidification in the strip and sheet thickness as a function of deformation force and line speed. Calculations are in good agreement with experimental results.

  19. Model of the Product Development Lifecycle.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    He, Sunny L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roe, Natalie H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wood, Evan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Nachtigal, Noel M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Helms, Jovana [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-10-01

    While the increased use of Commercial Off-The-Shelf information technology equipment has presented opportunities for improved cost effectiveness and flexibility, the corresponding loss of control over the product's development creates unique vulnerabilities and security concerns. Of particular interest is the possibility of a supply chain attack. A comprehensive model for the lifecycle of hardware and software products is proposed based on a survey of existing literature from academic, government, and industry sources. Seven major lifecycle stages are identified and defined: (1) Requirements, (2) Design, (3) Manufacturing for hardware and Development for software, (4) Testing, (5) Distribution, (6) Use and Maintenance, and (7) Disposal. The model is then applied to examine the risk of attacks at various stages of the lifecycle.

  20. Multi-Spacecraft Data Assimilation and Reanalysis During the THEMIS and Van Allen Probes Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerman, A. C.; Shprits, Y.; Kondrashov, D. A.; Podladchikova, T.; Drozdov, A.; Subbotin, D.

    2013-12-01

    consideration of the innovation vector may lead to a new physical understanding of the radiation belt system, which can later be used to improve our model forecasts. In the current study, we explore the radiation belt dynamics of the current era including data from the THEMIS, Van Allen Probes, GPS satellites, Akebono, NOAA and Cluster spacecraft. Intercalibration is performed between spacecraft on an individual energy channel basis, and in invariant coordinates. The global reanalysis allows an unprecedented analysis of the source-acceleration-transport-loss relationship in Earth's radiation belts. This analysis is used to refine our model capabilities, and to prepare the 3-D reanalysis for real-time data. The global 3-D reanalysis is an important step towards full-scale modeling and operational forecasting of this dynamic region of space.

  1. Reduction of the complexity of product modelling by modularisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    1998-01-01

    The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced.......The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced....

  2. Reduction of the complexity of product modelling by modularisation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    1998-01-01

    The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced.......The complexity in handling product aspects in design and production may be reduced by using approaches, which are applied in the field of modular engineering. This unit-oriented "spelling" of products, leading to product models with encapsulation, is introduced....

  3. Validation and Application of Reanalysis Temperature Data over the Tibetan Plateau

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZOU Han; ZHU Jinhuan; ZHOU Libo; LI Peng; MA Shupo

    2014-01-01

    The Tibetan Plateau has substantial impacts on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere, due in large part to the thermal eff ects of the plateau surface. Surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau is the most important parameter in determining these thermal eff ects. We present a method for verifying widely used reanalysis temperature products from NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-25 over the Tibetan Plateau, with the aim of obtaining a reliable picture of surface temperature and its changes over the plateau. Reanalysis data are validated against the topography elevation, satellite observations, and radiosonde data. ERA-Interim provides the most reliable estimates of Tibetan Plateau surface temperature among these three reanalyses. We therefore use this dataset to study the climatology and trends of surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau. ERA-Interim data indicate a dramatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2010, with warming rates of 0.33℃per decade in annual mean temperature, 0.22℃per decade in summer and 0.47℃ per decade in winter mean temperatures. Comparison with the results of previous studies suggests that surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated during the past 30 years. This warming is distributed heterogeneously across the Tibetan Plateau, possibly due to topographic eff ects.

  4. Validation and application of reanalysis temperature data over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Han; Zhu, Jinhuan; Zhou, Libo; Li, Peng; Ma, Shupo

    2014-02-01

    The Tibetan Plateau has substantial impacts on the weather and climate of the Northern Hemisphere, due in large part to the thermal effects of the plateau surface. Surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau is the most important parameter in determining these thermal effects. We present a method for verifying widely used reanalysis temperature products from NCEP-R2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-25 over the Tibetan Plateau, with the aim of obtaining a reliable picture of surface temperature and its changes over the plateau. Reanalysis data are validated against the topography elevation, satellite observations, and radiosonde data. ERA-Interim provides the most reliable estimates of Tibetan Plateau surface temperature among these three reanalyses. We therefore use this dataset to study the climatology and trends of surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau. ERA-Interim data indicate a dramatic warming over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2010, with warming rates of 0.33°C per decade in annual mean temperature, 0.22°C per decade in summer and 0.47°C per decade in winter mean temperatures. Comparison with the results of previous studies suggests that surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau has accelerated during the past 30 years. This warming is distributed heterogeneously across the Tibetan Plateau, possibly due to topographic effects.

  5. Identification of Anthropogenic Climate Change Using a Second-Generation Reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santer, B; Wiglet, T; Simmons, A; Kallberg, P; Kelly, G; Uppala, S; Ammann, C; Boyle, J; Bruggemann, W; Doutriaux, C; Fiorino, M; Mears, C; Meehl, G; Sausen, R

    2004-06-02

    Changes in the height of the tropopause provide a sensitive indicator of human effects on climate. A previous attempt to identify human effects on tropopause height relied on information from 'first-generation' reanalyses of past weather observations. Climate data from these initial model-based reanalyses have well-documented deficiencies, raising concerns regarding the robustness of earlier detection work that employed these data. Here, we address these concerns using information from the new second-generation ERA-40 reanalysis. Over 1979 to 2001, tropopause height increases by nearly 200 meters in ERA-40, partly due to tropospheric warming. The spatial pattern of height increase is consistent with climate model predictions of the expected response to anthropogenic influences alone, significantly strengthening earlier detection results. Atmospheric temperature changes in two different satellite datasets are more highly correlated with changes in ERA-40 than with those in a first-generation reanalysis, thus illustrating the improved quality of temperature information in ERA-40. Our results provide support for claims that human activities have warmed the troposphere and cooled the lower stratosphere over the last several decades of the 20th century, and that both of these changes in atmospheric temperature have contributed to an overall increase in tropopause height.

  6. Comparison of GNSS integrated water vapor and NWM reanalysis data over Central and South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Laura Isabel; Natali, Maria Paula; Meza, Amalia; Mendoza, Luciano; Bianchi, Clara

    2016-07-01

    Integrated water vapor (IWV) derived from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Numerical Weather Models (NWM) reanalysis data were compared in order to assess the consistency between the different datasets over the extended geographical region of Central and South America. The analysis was performed for the seven years period between 2007 and 2013. We analyzed two different NWM: the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA Interim) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The statistical analysis of the differences was performed in 110 GNSS sites (GPS + GLONASS), although the most interesting results came from the 73 sites which have more than 5 years of data. The selected area involves different climate types, from polar to tropical, and it is characterized by large temporal variability of the integrated total humidity content. Moreover, the scarce coverage of operational radio sounding stations is noticeable in large areas of the selected region; hence the contribution of IWV-GNSS is essential to improve the weather understanding. Considering that the atmospheric water vapor has a highly variable and complex distribution which knowledge is essential for weather prediction and local meteorological studies. This study aims to provide IWV-GNSS observations able to be assimilated by operational weather centers, for both prediction and simulation, as well for improving regional modeling.

  7. Research on Digital Product Modeling Key Technologies of Digital Manufacturing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DING Guoping; ZHOU Zude; HU Yefa; ZHAO Liang

    2006-01-01

    With the globalization and diversification of the market and the rapid development of Information Technology (IT) and Artificial Intelligence (AI), the digital revolution of manufacturing is coming. One of the key technologies in digital manufacturing is product digital modeling. This paper firstly analyzes the information and features of the product digital model during each stage in the product whole lifecycle, then researches on the three critical technologies of digital modeling in digital manufacturing-product modeling, standard for the exchange of product model data and digital product data management. And the potential signification of the product digital model during the process of digital manufacturing is concluded-product digital model integrates primary features of each stage during the product whole lifecycle based on graphic features, applies STEP as data exchange mechanism, and establishes PDM system to manage the large amount, complicated and dynamic product data to implement the product digital model data exchange, sharing and integration.

  8. Satellite-based terrestrial production efficiency modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obersteiner Michael

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Production efficiency models (PEMs are based on the theory of light use efficiency (LUE which states that a relatively constant relationship exists between photosynthetic carbon uptake and radiation receipt at the canopy level. Challenges remain however in the application of the PEM methodology to global net primary productivity (NPP monitoring. The objectives of this review are as follows: 1 to describe the general functioning of six PEMs (CASA; GLO-PEM; TURC; C-Fix; MOD17; and BEAMS identified in the literature; 2 to review each model to determine potential improvements to the general PEM methodology; 3 to review the related literature on satellite-based gross primary productivity (GPP and NPP modeling for additional possibilities for improvement; and 4 based on this review, propose items for coordinated research. This review noted a number of possibilities for improvement to the general PEM architecture - ranging from LUE to meteorological and satellite-based inputs. Current PEMs tend to treat the globe similarly in terms of physiological and meteorological factors, often ignoring unique regional aspects. Each of the existing PEMs has developed unique methods to estimate NPP and the combination of the most successful of these could lead to improvements. It may be beneficial to develop regional PEMs that can be combined under a global framework. The results of this review suggest the creation of a hybrid PEM could bring about a significant enhancement to the PEM methodology and thus terrestrial carbon flux modeling. Key items topping the PEM research agenda identified in this review include the following: LUE should not be assumed constant, but should vary by plant functional type (PFT or photosynthetic pathway; evidence is mounting that PEMs should consider incorporating diffuse radiation; continue to pursue relationships between satellite-derived variables and LUE, GPP and autotrophic respiration (Ra; there is an urgent need for

  9. Towards a model for protein production rates

    CERN Document Server

    Dong, J J; Zia, R K P

    2007-01-01

    In the process of translation, ribosomes read the genetic code on an mRNA and assemble the corresponding polypeptide chain. The ribosomes perform discrete directed motion which is well modeled by a totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) with open boundaries. Using Monte Carlo simulations and a simple mean-field theory, we discuss the effect of one or two ``bottlenecks'' (i.e., slow codons) on the production rate of the final protein. Confirming and extending previous work by Chou and Lakatos, we find that the location and spacing of the slow codons can affect the production rate quite dramatically. In particular, we observe a novel ``edge'' effect, i.e., an interaction of a single slow codon with the system boundary. We focus in detail on ribosome density profiles and provide a simple explanation for the length scale which controls the range of these interactions.

  10. Towards a Model for Protein Production Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, J. J.; Schmittmann, B.; Zia, R. K. P.

    2007-07-01

    In the process of translation, ribosomes read the genetic code on an mRNA and assemble the corresponding polypeptide chain. The ribosomes perform discrete directed motion which is well modeled by a totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) with open boundaries. Using Monte Carlo simulations and a simple mean-field theory, we discuss the effect of one or two "bottlenecks" (i.e., slow codons) on the production rate of the final protein. Confirming and extending previous work by Chou and Lakatos, we find that the location and spacing of the slow codons can affect the production rate quite dramatically. In particular, we observe a novel "edge" effect, i.e., an interaction of a single slow codon with the system boundary. We focus in detail on ribosome density profiles and provide a simple explanation for the length scale which controls the range of these interactions.

  11. Energy Budget on Various Land Use Areas Using Reanalysis Data in Florida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Han Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy budget is closely related to the hydrological cycle through evapotranspiration (ET or latent heat. Hence, quantifying the energy budget on different land uses is critical for understanding the water budget and providing useful land use information for decision makers. However, traditional methods, including in situ measurements and model-only approaches, have deficiencies in data availability, and we have still not yet fully realized how well the energy budgets presented in reanalysis data sets. Therefore, in this study, North American regional reanalysis (NARR data set from 1992 to 2002 were employed to investigate the energy budget on various land uses (lake, wetland, agriculture, forest, and urban at a regional scale in Florida. The results showed that the lake and urban areas had high values of energy budget, evaporation, and low Bowen ratio, while the wetland areas have the opposite treads because of the lowest evaporation rate. During drought periods, Bowen ratio, surface temperature, and sensible heat were becoming higher than those of normal years conditions. Finally, by comparing with the observed data, we found NARR had better assimilation of precipitation observations and demonstrated the land use effects from the different coefficient of correlation relationships.

  12. Verification of the new ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis over France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Szczypta

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An evaluation of the global ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim (with a 0.5° grid is performed over France, based on the high resolution (8 km SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis. The ERA-Interim precipitation, Incoming Solar Radiation (ISR, air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed, are compared with their SAFRAN counterparts. Also, interpolated in situ ISR observations are used in order to consolidate the evaluation of this variable. The daily precipitation estimates produced by ERA-Interim over France correlate very well with SAFRAN. However, the values are underestimated by 26%. A GPCP-corrected version of ERA-Interim is less biased (10–15%. The ERA-Interim estimates of ISR correlate very well with SAFRAN and with in situ observations on a daily basis. Whereas SAFRAN underestimates the ISR by 6–8 W m−2, ERA-Interim overestimates the ISR by 9–10 W m−2. In order to assess the impact of the ERA-Interim errors, simulations of the ISBA-A-gs land surface model are performed over the SMOSREX grassland site in southwestern France using ERA-Interim (with and without GPCP rescaling and SAFRAN. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are simulated, together with carbon dioxide fluxes. The rescaled ERA-Interim performs better than the original ERA-Interim and permits to achieve flux scores similar to those obtained with SAFRAN.

  13. Verification of the new ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szczypta, C.; Calvet, J.-C.; Albergel, C.; Balsamo, G.; Boussetta, S.; Carrer, D.; Lafont, S.; Meurey, C.

    2011-02-01

    An evaluation of the global ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis ERA-Interim (with a 0.5° grid) is performed over France, based on the high resolution (8 km) SAFRAN atmospheric reanalysis. The ERA-Interim precipitation, Incoming Solar Radiation (ISR), air temperature, air humidity, and wind speed, are compared with their SAFRAN counterparts. Also, interpolated in situ ISR observations are used in order to consolidate the evaluation of this variable. The daily precipitation estimates produced by ERA-Interim over France correlate very well with SAFRAN. However, the values are underestimated by 27%. A GPCP-corrected version of ERA-Interim is less biased (13%). The ERA-Interim estimates of ISR correlate very well with SAFRAN and with in situ observations on a daily basis. Whereas SAFRAN underestimates the ISR by 6 Wm-2, ERA-Interim overestimates the ISR by 10 Wm-2. In order to assess the impact of the ERA-Interim errors, simulations of the ISBA-A-gs land surface model are performed over the SMOSREX grassland site in southwestern France using ERA-Interim (with and without GPCP rescaling) and SAFRAN. Latent and sensible heat fluxes are simulated, together with carbon dioxide fluxes. The rescaled ERA-Interim performs better than the original ERA-Interim and permits to achieve flux scores similar to those obtained with SAFRAN.

  14. Assessment of patient-specific surgery effect based on weighted estimation and propensity scoring in the re-analysis of the sciatica trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bart J A Mertens

    Full Text Available We consider a re-analysis of the wait-and-see (control arm of a recent clinical trial on sciatica. While the original randomised trial was designed to evaluate the public policy effect of a conservative wait-and-see approach versus early surgery, we investigate the impact of surgery at the individual patient level in a re-analysis of the wait-and-see group data. Both marginal structural model re-weighted estimates as well as propensity score adjusted analyses are presented. Results indicate that patients with high propensity to receive surgery may have beneficial effects at 2 years from delayed disc surgery.

  15. Dilepton production with the SMASH model

    CERN Document Server

    Weil, Janus; Petersen, Hannah

    2016-01-01

    In this work the SMASH model is presented ("Simulating Many Accelerated Strongly-Interacting Hadrons"), a next-generation hadronic transport approach, which is designed to describe the non-equilibrium evolution of hadronic matter in heavy-ion collisions. We discuss first dilepton spectra obtained with SMASH in the few-GeV energy range of GSI/FAIR, where the dynamics of hadronic matter is dominated by the production and decay of various resonance states. In particular we show how electromagnetic transition form factors can emerge in a transport picture under the hypothesis of vector-meson dominance.

  16. Reanalysis of Rosenbluth measurements of the proton form factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramolin, Alexander; Nikolenko, Dmitry

    2017-01-01

    We have reanalyzed the elastic electron-proton scattering data from SLAC experiments E140 and NE11. This work was motivated by recent progress in calculating the corresponding radiative corrections and by the apparent discrepancy between the Rosenbluth and polarization transfer measurements of the proton electromagnetic form factors. New, corrected values for the scattering cross sections are presented, as well as a new form factor fit in the Q2 range from 1 to 8 . 83GeV2 . Our reanalysis brings the combined results of the SLAC experiments into better agreement with the polarization transfer data, but a significant discrepancy remains for Q2 > 3GeV2 .

  17. Evaluation of ACCMIP ozone simulations and ozonesonde sampling biases using a satellite-based multi-constituent chemical reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyazaki, Kazuyuki; Bowman, Kevin

    2017-07-01

    The Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble ozone simulations for the present day from the 2000 decade simulation results are evaluated by a state-of-the-art multi-constituent atmospheric chemical reanalysis that ingests multiple satellite data including the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), and the Measurement of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) for 2005-2009. Validation of the chemical reanalysis against global ozonesondes shows good agreement throughout the free troposphere and lower stratosphere for both seasonal and year-to-year variations, with an annual mean bias of less than 0.9 ppb in the middle and upper troposphere at the tropics and mid-latitudes. The reanalysis provides comprehensive spatiotemporal evaluation of chemistry-model performance that compliments direct ozonesonde comparisons, which are shown to suffer from significant sampling bias. The reanalysis reveals that the ACCMIP ensemble mean overestimates ozone in the northern extratropics by 6-11 ppb while underestimating by up to 18 ppb in the southern tropics over the Atlantic in the lower troposphere. Most models underestimate the spatial variability of the annual mean lower tropospheric concentrations in the extratropics of both hemispheres by up to 70 %. The ensemble mean also overestimates the seasonal amplitude by 25-70 % in the northern extratropics and overestimates the inter-hemispheric gradient by about 30 % in the lower and middle troposphere. A part of the discrepancies can be attributed to the 5-year reanalysis data for the decadal model simulations. However, these differences are less evident with the current sonde network. To estimate ozonesonde sampling biases, we computed model bias separately for global coverage and the ozonesonde network. The ozonesonde sampling bias in the evaluated model bias for the seasonal mean concentration relative to global

  18. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Rosa Castro

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a li- neal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.

  19. Modeling of Kefir Production with Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin Nail Akgül

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The fermentation is ended with pH 4.6 values in industrial production of kefir. In this study, the incubation temperature, the incubation time and inoculums of culture were chose as variable parameters of kefir. In conventional control systems, the value of pH can be found by trial method. In these systems, if the number of input parameters is greater, the method of trial and error creates a system dependent on the person as well as troublesome. Fuzzy logic can be used in such cases. Modeling studies with this fuzzy logic control are examined in two portions. The first part consists of fuzzy rules and membership functions, while the second part consists of clarify. Kefir incubation temperature between 20 and 25°C, the incubation period between 18 to 22 hours and the inoculum ratio of culture between 1-5% are selected for optimum production conditions. Three separate fuzzy sets (triangular membership function are used to blur the incubation temperature, the incubation time and the inoculum ratio of culture. Because the membership function numbers belonging to the the input parameters are 3 units, 3x3x3=27 line rule is obtained by multiplying these numbers. The table of fuzzy rules was obtained using the method of Mamdani. The membership function values were determined by the method of average weight using three trapezoidal area of membership functions created for clarification. The success of the system will be found, comparing the numerical values obtained with pH values that should be. Eventually, to achieve the desired pH value of 4.6 in the production of kefir, with the using of fuzzy logic, the workload of people will be decreased and the productivity of business can be increased. In this case, it can be provided savings in both cost and time.

  20. Utilizing reanalysis and synthesis datasets in wind resource characterization for large-scale wind integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henson, William L.W. [ISO New England Inc., Holyoke, MA (United States); McGowan, Jon G.; Manwell, James F. [Massachusetts Univ., Amherst, MA (United States). Wind Energy Center

    2010-07-01

    As wind plants become a more substantial portion of the generation resource, the ability of and manner in which this new fleet of generation supports meeting the power system load in a given area must be quantified in order to ensure security of supply. This paper describes the manner in which a reanalysis dataset - the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset - was utilized in conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Eastern Wind Integration Dataset in order to perform an estimation of the interannual variability in wind power production as related to the capacity value of the investigated potential wind plants. Also described in the paper is a comparison of the MERRA data with publicly available wind data collected by the University of Massachusetts Wind Energy Center (UMass WEC). (orig.)

  1. Examining the impact of land cover change for biofuel production on the Midwestern U.S. hydroclimate using a regional climate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harding, K. J.; Twine, T. E.; VanLoocke, A.; Bagley, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    The perennial grasses miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) have been proposed as cellulosic feedstocks for U.S. biofuel production because their high productivity and low inputs could reduce net CO2 emissions. Possible biogeochemical feedbacks of widespread production have been extensively studied, but less attention has been given to the two-way biophysical interactions between the land surface and regional climate. Miscanthus uses significantly more water than maize, resulting in large evapotranspiration (ET) increases upon conversion from maize to Miscanthus that could impact regional precipitation, precipitation recycling, and soil moisture. In this study, we simulate perennial grass production in a fully coupled regional climate model with dynamic vegetation, enabling an investigation into the two-way responses between these potential biofuels and the climate over the Mississippi River Basin. We incorporated algorithms of miscanthus and switchgrass growth and management from the Agro-IBIS model into with WRF-CLM4crop, a version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled to the Community Land Model with dynamic crop growth and irrigation enabled. Using suggested production regions from the United States Department of Energy, we performed simulations driven with 10 years of NCEP-DOE Reanalysis (NCEP2) data, with 25%, 50%, and 75% of current croplands replaced by perennial grass feedstocks. Our results provide spatially explicit maps of how simulated ET increased with conversion and the resulting regional cooling, greater precipitation, and precipitation recycling over the region.

  2. Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cássia Pianca

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007 obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1, Southeast (W2, Central (W3, East (W4, Northeast (W5 and North (W6. W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.O presente trabalho apresenta o clima de ondas da região ao largo da costa brasileira com base em uma série temporal de onze anos (Jan/1997-Dez/2007 obtida através de dados de reanálise do modelo operacional NWW3. Informações sobre o regime de ondas no Brasil são escassas e baseadas em observações ocasionais de curto período, sendo a presente análise inédita na escala espaço-temporal apresentada. Para a definição do clima de ondas foram definidos e analisados seis setores ao longo da quebra da plataforma continental brasileira: Sul (W1, Sudeste (W2, Central (W3, Leste (W4, Nordeste (W5 e Norte

  3. DEFICIENT INFORMATION MODELING OF MECHANICAL PRODUCTS FOR CONCEPTUAL SHAPE DESIGN

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    In allusion to the deficient feature of product information in conceptual design, a framework of deficient information modeling for conceptual shape design is put forward, which includes qualitative shape modeling (a qualitative solid model), uncertain shape modeling (an uncertain relation model) and imprecise shape modeling (an imprecise region model). In the framework, the qualitative solid model is the core, which represents qualitatively (using symbols) the conceptual shapes of mechanical products. The uncertain relation model regarding domain relations as objects and the imprecise region model regarding domains as objects are used to deal with the uncertain and imprecise issues respectively, which arise from qualitative shape modeling or exist in product information itself.

  4. Proposal for product development model focused on ce certification methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathalia Marcia Goulart Pinheiro

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a critical analysis comparing 21 product development models in order to identify whether these structures meet the demands Product Certification of the European Community (CE. Furthermore, it presents a product development model, comprising the steps in the models analyzed, including improvements in activities for referred product certification. The proposed improvements are justified by the growing quest for the internationalization of products and processes within companies.

  5. Application of the spectral correction method to reanalysis data in South Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kruger, Andries C.

    2014-01-01

    the spectral correction method, has been applied in the wind energy community for estimating the design winds. Two particular aspects are examined, firstly the diurnal spectral peak and then the meso-microscale interface. Both aspects provide challenges for the application of the method, and the purpose...... of this study is to evaluate the applicability of the method to the relevant region. The impacts from the two aspects are investigated for interior and coastal locations. Measurements from five stations from South Africa are used to evaluate the results from the spectral model S(f)=af−5/3 together......In connection with applying reanalysis data for extreme wind estimation, this study investigates the use of a simple approach that corrects the smoothing effect in numerical modeling through adding in missing spectral information for relatively high, mesoscale frequencies. This approach, called...

  6. A Reanalysis of Toomela (2003: Spurious measurement error as cause for common variance between personality factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MATTHIAS ZIEGLER

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The present article reanalyzed data collected by Toomela (2003. The data contain personality self ratings and cognitive ability test results from n = 912 men with military background. In his original article Toomela showed that in the group with the highest cognitive ability, Big-Five-Neuroticism and -Conscientiousness were substantially correlated and could no longer be clearly separated using exploratory factor analysis. The present reanalysis was based on the hypothesis that a spurious measurement error caused by situational demand was responsible. This means, people distorted their answers. Furthermore it was hypothesized that this situational demand was felt due to a person’s military rank but not due to his intelligence. Using a multigroup structural equation model our hypothesis could be confirmed. Moreover, the results indicate that an uncorrelated trait model might represent personalities better when situational demand is partialized. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

  7. Information Sharing In Shipbuilding based on the Product State Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    The paper provides a review of product modelling technologies and the overall architecture for the Product State Model (PSM) environment as a basis for how dynamically updated product data can improve control of production activities. Especially, the paper focuses on the circumstances prevailing...

  8. Pion production model - connection between dynamics and quark models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, T.-S. H.; Sato, T.

    2000-05-17

    The authors discuss the difficulties in testing the hadron models by using the N{sup *} parameters extracted from the empirical amplitude analyses of the {pi}N and {gamma}N reaction data. As an alternative or perhaps a more advantageous approach, they present a Hamiltonian formulation that can relate the pion production dynamics and the constituent quark models of N{sup *} structure. The application of the approach in investigating the {Delta} and N{sup *}(S{sub 11}) excitations is reviewed. It is found that while the {Delta} excitation can be described satisfactory, the {pi}N scattering in S{sub 11} channel can not be described by the constituent quark models based on either the one-gluon-exchange or one-meson-exchange mechanisms. A phenomenological quark-quark potential has been constructed to reproduce the S{sub 11} amplitude.

  9. Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golchev Riste

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

  10. Modelling preparation and consumption of pork products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swart, Arno; Nauta, Maarten; Evers, Eric

    This poster describes the retail and consumer phase of the EFSA Salmonella in Pork QMRA (Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment, funded under an Article 36 grant to support the scientific opinion required by EFS). The food chain is modelled from retail to ingestion by the consumer. Three...... types of pork are considered: minced meat, pork cuts and dry cured sausages. This particular choice was made because each product represents a clear distinct hazard. Pork cuts are usually cooked well, but there is a chance of cross contamination during cutting and handling of the meat. Minced meat...... is thoroughly mixed, and Salmonellae may be present in the interior of hamburger patties, undercooking may occur, and Salmonellae may survive. Dry cured sausages, including all variations therein like chorizo, salami, etc., are eaten uncooked. Food preparation habits are highly variable and accurate data...

  11. Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Richard; Liu, Chunlei

    2017-04-01

    The net surface energy flux is central to the climate system yet observational limitations lead to substantial uncertainty (Trenberth and Fasullo, 2013; Roberts et al., 2016). A combination of satellite-derived radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere (TOA) adjusted using the latest estimation of the net heat uptake of the Earth system, and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis are used to estimate surface energy flux globally (Liu et al., 2015). Land surface fluxes are adjusted through a simple energy balance approach using relations at each grid point with the consideration of snowmelt to improve regional realism. The energy adjustment is redistributed over the oceans using a weighting function to avoid meridional discontinuities. Uncertainties in surface fluxes are investigated using a variety of approaches including comparison with a range of atmospheric reanalysis input data and products. Zonal multiannual mean surface flux uncertainty is estimated to be less than 5 Wm-2 but much larger uncertainty is likely for regional monthly values. The meridional energy transport is calculated using the net surface heat fluxes estimated in this study and the result shows better agreement with observations in Atlantic than before. The derived turbulent fluxes (difference between the net heat flux and the CERES EBAF radiative flux at surface) also have good agreement with those from OAFLUX dataset and buoy observations. Decadal changes in the global energy budget and the hemisphere energy imbalances are quantified and present day cross-equator heat transports is re-evaluated as 0.22±0.15 PW southward by the atmosphere and 0.32±0.16 PW northward by the ocean considering the observed ocean heat sinks (Roemmich et al., 2006) . Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res., Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD

  12. Examination of InSAR tropospheric delay correction with JRA-55 reanalysis data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Furuya, M.

    2015-12-01

    Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) phase signal contains not only surface deformations but also propagation delays due to Earth's atmosphere, which is the principal limiting factor for InSAR application of small deformation with amplitude of a few centimeters or less. Bevis et al. (1992) showed that the tropospheric delay consists of the hydrostatic delay due to dry gases and the wet delay due to water vapor. Previous studies proposed correction methods which used GNSS delay data or numerical weather model outputs. However, it is still insignificant for detecting small surface deformation. Jolivet et al. (2014) showed that reanalysis data like ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data is useful to mitigate topography-correlated tropospheric delay from InSAR data. However, previous studies used only one of the model data as a case study and didn't apply the correction to other areas. In this study we examined an effect of the tropospheric delay correction with Japanese 55-year reanalysis (JRA-55) data (Kobayashi et al., 2015). The horizontal resolution of JRA-55 is TL319 (approximately 60 km) and has 60 vertical layers. In addition, we estimated the tropospheric delay with ERA-Interim data for comparison. SAR data used were derived from ALOS/PALSAR around Nagoya prefecture (Path-Frame: 411-690). To avoid the spatial decorrelation, interferometric pairs with the perpendicular baseline of less 3000 m were generated. As a result, 309 interferograms were generated from 28 SAR single-look complex images. In consequence of the tropospheric delay correction with JRA-55 and ERA-Interim data, the averaged standard deviation of all interferograms slightly reduced from 1.26716 cm to 1.25231 cm by JRA-55 and slightly increased to 1.26797 cm by ERA-Interim. We further examined the correction effect when dividing the estimated delay into the hydrostatic component and the wet component. These results showed that JRA-55 corrected these delays rather than ERA

  13. NCEP and GISS solar radiation data sets available for ecosystem modeling: Description, differences, and impacts on net primary production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicke, Jeffrey A.

    2005-06-01

    Downwelling surface solar radiation is an important input to ecosystem models, and global models require spatially extensive data sets that vary interannually to capture effects that potentially drive changes in ecosystem function. In this paper, I describe and compare solar radiation data sets from two representative sources, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses and Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) calculations that included satellite observations of cloud properties. The CASA ecosystem model, which uses solar radiation and satellite-derived vegetation information, was run with the two solar radiation data sets to explore how differences affect estimated net primary production (NPP). GISS solar radiation matched ground-based observations better than NCEP solar radiation. Mean global NCEP solar radiation exceeded that from GISS by 16%, likely as a result of lower cloudiness within the NCEP reanalyses compared to satellite observations. Neither data set resulted in a significant trend over the study period (1984-2000). Locally, relative differences were up to 40% in the mean and 10% in the trend of solar radiation and NPP, and varied in sign across the globe. Because reanalysis solar radiation is only indirectly constrained by observations in contrast to the satellite-derived data, it is recommended that studies use the GISS solar radiation when possible.

  14. Production TTR modeling and dynamic buckling analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hugh Liu; John Wei; Edward Huang

    2013-01-01

    In a typical tension leg platform (TLP) design,the top tension factor (TTF),measuring the top tension of a top tensioned riser (TTR) relative to its submerged weight in water,is one of the most important design parameters that has to be specified properly.While a very small TTF may lead to excessive vortex induced vibration (ⅤⅣ),clashing issues and possible compression close to seafloor,an unnecessarily high TTF may translate into excessive riser cost and vessel payload,and even has impacts on the TLP sizing and design in general.In the process of a production TTR design,it is found that its outer casing can be subjected to compression in a worst-case scenario with some extreme metocean and hardware conditions.The present paper shows how finite element analysis (FEA) models using beam elements and two different software packages (Flexcom and ABAQUS) are constructed to simulate the TTR properly,and especially the pipe-in-pipe effects.An ABAQUS model with hybrid elements (beam elements globally + shell elements locally) can be used to investigate how the outer casing behaves under compression.It is shown for the specified TTR design,even with its outer casing being under some local compression in the worst-case scenario,dynamic buckling would not occur; therefore the TTR design is adequate.

  15. Developing engineering processes through integrated modelling of product and process

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jeppe Bjerrum; Hvam, Lars

    2012-01-01

    This article aims at developing an operational tool for integrated modelling of product assortments and engineering processes in companies making customer specific products. Integrating a product model in the design of engineering processes will provide a deeper understanding of the engineering...... activities as well as insight into how product features affect the engineering processes. The article suggests possible ways of integrating models of products with models of engineering processes. The models have been tested and further developed in an action research study carried out in collaboration...

  16. DIFFERENCES OF SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON DERIVED BY NCEP AND ECMWF REANALYSIS DATA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Bin; GU De-jun; LI Chun-hui

    2006-01-01

    @@ 1 INTRODUCTION Due to long-term time series and many elements,reanalysis data of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and European Center for MediumRange Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are widely used in present climate studies. Even so, there are discrepancies between NCEP and ECMWF reanalysis.Some climate fields may be better reproduced by NCEP than by ECMWF.

  17. Modelling production system architectures in the early phases of product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir; Martin Ravn, Poul; Mortensen, Niels Henrik;

    2016-01-01

    on – leading to an improved basis for prioritizing activities in the project. Requirements for the contents of the framework are presented, and literature on production and system models is reviewed. The production system architecture modelling framework is founded on methods and approaches in literature......This article suggests a framework for modelling a production system architecture in the early phases of product development.The challenge in these phases is that the products to be produced are not completely defined and yet decisions need to be made early in the process on what investments...... and adjusted to fit the modelling requirements of a production system architecture at an early phase of development. The production system architecture models capture and describe the structure, capabilities and expansions of the production system architecture underdevelopment. The production system...

  18. Mathematical Modeling and Analysis of Classified Marketing of Agricultural Products

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fengying; WANG

    2014-01-01

    Classified marketing of agricultural products was analyzed using the Logistic Regression Model. This method can take full advantage of information in agricultural product database,to find factors influencing best selling degree of agricultural products,and make quantitative analysis accordingly. Using this model,it is also able to predict sales of agricultural products,and provide reference for mapping out individualized sales strategy for popularizing agricultural products.

  19. Caracterização de eventos extremos do nível do mar em Santos e sua correspondência com as reanálises do modelo do NCEP no sudoeste do Atlântico Sul Characterization of extreme sea level events in Santos and their correspondence with the NCEP model reanalysis in the southwest of the South Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Martins Campos

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho tem como objetivo identificar a influência atmosférica em escala sinótica sobre o oceano, para eventos extremos de maré meteorológica na costa sudeste brasileira. Para isso foram utilizados dados de elevação do nível do mar do Porto de Santos-SP, campos de vento e pressão em superfície das reanálises do modelo do NCEP abrangendo o Atlântico Sul, no período de 1951 a 1990. Foi possível identificar a variabilidade sazonal e o padrão de evolução dos sistemas atmosféricos associados aos eventos extremos, de grande relevância para aplicações em prognósticos e alertas a autoridades. O outono e inverno apresentaram a maior ocorrência de extremos positivos (40,2 % e 30,8 % respectivamente, enquanto a primavera e o inverno foram as estações com maior número de extremos negativos (47,2 % e 32,3 % respectivamente. Os resultados mostram que os casos mais importantes de sobre-elevação do nível do mar ocorrem com a evolução e persistência de sistemas de baixa pressão sobre o oceano, com ventos de sudoeste acima de 8 m/s, juntamente com o anticiclone da retaguarda posicionado sobre o continente.This work aims to identify the synoptic scale atmospheric influence over the ocean for extreme events of storm surges events in the Southeastern Brazilian coast. Time series of sea surface height at the Port of Santos as well as wind and surface pressure from the NCEP reanalysis model enclosing the South Atlantic, for period 1951-1990, were used. Seasonal variability and typical evolution of atmospheric systems were found to be associated with extreme events, very relevant for applications on prognostics and warnings to authorities. Autumn and winter are seasons with the highest occurrence of positive extreme events (40.2 % and 30.8 % respectively and the spring and winter are the ones with negative extreme events (47.2 % and 32.3 % respectively. The results show that the storm surges events depend on low pressure systems

  20. A reanalysis of Rosenbluth measurements of the proton form factors

    CERN Document Server

    Gramolin, A V

    2016-01-01

    We present a reanalysis of the data from SLAC experiments E140 [R. C. Walker et al., Phys. Rev. D 49, 5671 (1994)] and NE11 [L. Andivahis et al., Phys. Rev. D 50, 5491 (1994)] on elastic electron-proton scattering. This work is motivated by recent progress in calculating the corresponding radiative corrections and by the apparent discrepancy between the Rosenbluth and polarization transfer measurements of the proton electromagnetic form factors. New, corrected values for the scattering cross sections are presented, as well as a new form factor fit in the $Q^2$ range from 1 to 8.83 $\\text{GeV}^2$. We also provide a complete set of revised formulas to account for radiative corrections in single-arm measurements of unpolarized elastic electron-proton scattering.

  1. Reanalysis of Rosenbluth measurements of the proton form factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gramolin, A. V.; Nikolenko, D. M.

    2016-05-01

    We present a reanalysis of the data from Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC) experiments E140 [R. C. Walker et al., Phys. Rev. D 49, 5671 (1994), 10.1103/PhysRevD.49.5671] and NE11 [L. Andivahis et al., Phys. Rev. D 50, 5491 (1994), 10.1103/PhysRevD.50.5491] on elastic electron-proton scattering. This work is motivated by recent progress in calculating the corresponding radiative corrections and by the apparent discrepancy between the Rosenbluth and polarization transfer measurements of the proton electromagnetic form factors. New, corrected values for the scattering cross sections are presented, as well as a new form factor fit in the Q2 range from 1 to 8.83 GeV2. We also provide a complete set of revised formulas to account for radiative corrections in single-arm measurements of unpolarized elastic electron-proton scattering.

  2. Reanalysis of the GALLEX solar neutrino flux and source experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaether, F., E-mail: Florian.Kaether@mpi-hd.mpg.d [Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics, P.O. Box 103980, D-69029 Heidelberg (Germany); Hampel, W.; Heusser, G.; Kiko, J.; Kirsten, T. [Max Planck Institute for Nuclear Physics, P.O. Box 103980, D-69029 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2010-02-22

    After the completion of the gallium solar neutrino experiments at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (GALLEX: 1991-1997; GNO: 1998-2003) we have retrospectively updated the GALLEX results with the help of new technical data that were impossible to acquire for principle reasons before the completion of the low rate measurement phase (that is, before the end of the GNO solar runs). Subsequent high rate experiments have allowed the calibration of absolute internal counter efficiencies and of an advanced pulse shape analysis for counter background discrimination. The updated overall result for GALLEX (only) is 73.4{sub -7.3}{sup +7.1} SNU. This is 5.3% below the old value of 77.5{sub -7.8}{sup +7.5} SNU (GALLEX Collaboration, W. Hampel et al., 1999 ), with a substantially reduced error. A similar reduction is obtained from the reanalysis of the {sup 51}Cr neutrino source experiments of 1994/1995.

  3. Reanalysis of the GALLEX solar neutrino flux and source experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Kaether, F; Heusser, G; Kiko, J; Kirsten, T; 10.1016/j.physletb.2010.01.030

    2010-01-01

    After the completion of the gallium solar neutrino experiments at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (GALLEX}: 1991-1997; GNO: 1998-2003) we have retrospectively updated the GALLEX results with the help of new technical data that were impossible to acquire for principle reasons before the completion of the low rate measurement phase (that is, before the end of the GNO solar runs). Subsequent high rate experiments have allowed the calibration of absolute internal counter efficiencies and of an advanced pulse shape analysis for counter background discrimination. The updated overall result for GALLEX (only) is (73.4 +7.1 -7.3) SNU. This is 5.3% below the old value of (77.5 + 7.5 -7.8) SNU (PLB 447 (1999) 127-133) with a substantially reduced error. A similar reduction is obtained from the reanalysis of the 51Cr neutrino source experiments of 1994/1995.

  4. Reanalysis of the FEROS observations of HIP 11952

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, A; Henning, Th; Fedele, D; Pasquali, A; Caffau, E; Rodríguez-Ledesma, M V; Mohler-Fischer, M; Seemann, U; Klement, R J

    2013-01-01

    Aims. We reanalyze FEROS observations of the star HIP 11952 to reassess the existence of the proposed planetary system. Methods. The radial velocity of the spectra were measured by cross-correlating the observed spectrum with a synthetic template. We also analyzed a large dataset of FEROS and HARPS archival data of the calibrator HD 10700 spanning over more than five years. We compared the barycentric velocities computed by the FEROS and HARPS pipelines. Results. The barycentric correction of the FEROS-DRS pipeline was found to be inaccurate and to introduce an artificial one-year period with a semi-amplitude of 62 m/s. Thus the reanalysis of the FEROS data does not support the existence of planets around HIP 11952.

  5. A Conceptual Model for Production Leveling (Heijunka) Implementation in Batch Production Systems

    OpenAIRE

    De Araujo, Luciano Fonseca; De Queiroz, Abelardo Alves

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper explains an implementation model for a new method for Production Leveling designed for batch production system. The main structure of this model is grounded on three constructs: traditional framework for Operations Planning, Lean Manufacturing concepts for Production Leveling and case study guidelines. By combining the first and second construct, a framework for Production Leveling has been developed for batch production systems. Then, case study guidelines ...

  6. Modelling and using product architectures in mechatronic product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Hans Peter Lomholt; Mortensen, Niels Henrik

    , experiences by using the architecture representation in a mechatronic development project, and the scope of using the architecture model as a skeleton for a data structure in a PLM system. The fundamental idea for planning and modeling holistic architectures is that an improved understanding of the whole...

  7. Retrieving Precipitable Water Vapor Data Using GPS Zenith Delays and Global Reanalysis Data in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available GPS has become a very effective tool to remotely sense precipitable water vapor (PWV information, which is important for weather forecasting and nowcasting. The number of geodetic GNSS stations set up in China has substantially increased over the last few decades. However, GPS PWV derivation requires surface pressure to calculate the precise zenith hydrostatic delay and weighted mean temperature to map the zenith wet delay to precipitable water vapor. GPS stations without collocated meteorological sensors can retrieve water vapor using standard atmosphere parameters, which lead to a decrease in accuracy. In this paper, a method of interpolating NWP reanalysis data to site locations for generating corresponding meteorological elements is explored over China. The NCEP FNL dataset provided by the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction and over 600 observed stations from different sources was selected to assess the quality of the results. A one-year experiment was performed in our study. The types of stations selected include meteorological sites, GPS stations, radio sounding stations, and a sun photometer station. Compared with real surface measurements, the accuracy of the interpolated surface pressure and air temperature both meet the requirements of GPS PWV derivation in most areas; however, the interpolated surface air temperature exhibits lower precision than the interpolated surface pressure. At more than 96% of selected stations, PWV differences caused by the differences between the interpolation results and real measurements were less than 1.0 mm. Our study also indicates that relief amplitude exerts great influence on the accuracy of the interpolation approach. Unsatisfactory interpolation results always occurred in areas of strong relief. GPS PWV data generated from interpolated meteorological parameters are consistent with other PWV products (radio soundings, the NWP reanalysis dataset, and sun photometer PWV data. The

  8. Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Miyazaki

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis datasets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis datasets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 generally reveal a weaker MMC and stronger eddy mixing in the Northern Hemisphere (NH compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25. In the NH lower stratosphere, the stronger eddy mixing is attributed to stronger planetary-scale mixing in the new datasets, whereas small-scale mixing is weaker in the new datasets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old datasets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson Circulation (BDC. The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere is considered to be important in controlling mean Age-of-Air (AoA variations above, which showed increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing AoA trend in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments into these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

  9. The Surface-Forced Overturning of the North Atlantic: Estimates from Modern Era Atmospheric Reanalysis Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grist, Jeremy; Josey, Simon; Marsh, Robert; Kwon, Young-Oh; Bingham, Rory; Blaker, Adam

    2014-05-01

    Estimates of the recent mean and time varying water mass transformation rates associated with North Atlantic surface-forced overturning are presented. The estimates are derived from heat and freshwater surface fluxes and sea surface temperature fields from six atmospheric reanalyses (JRA, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, ERA-I, CFSR and MERRA) together with sea surface salinity fields from two globally gridded data sets (World Ocean Atlas and EN3). The resulting twelve estimates of the 1979-2007 mean surface-forced streamfunction all depict a sub-polar cell, with maxima north of 45oN, near σ = 27.5 kgm-3, and a sub-tropical cell between 20oN and 40oN, near σ = 26.1 kgm-3. The mean magnitude of the sub-polar cell varies between 12-18 Sv, consistent with estimates of the overturning circulation from sub-surface observations. Analysis of the thermal and haline components of the surface density fluxes indicate large differences in the inferred low latitude circulation are largely due to the biases in reanalysis net heat flux fields, which range in the global mean from -13 Wm-2 to 19 Wm-2. The different estimates of temporal variability in the sub-polar cell are well correlated with each other. This suggests the uncertainty associated with the choice of reanalysis product does not critically limit the ability of the method to infer the variability in the sub-polar overturning. In contrast, the different estimates of sub-tropical variability are poorly correlated with each other, and only a subset of them capture a significant fraction of the variability in independently estimated North Atlantic Sub-Tropical Mode Water volume.

  10. Climate of the Greenland ice sheet using a high-resolution climate model - Part 1: Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ettema, J.; van den Broeke, M.R.; van Meijgaard, E.; van de Berg, W.J.; Box, J.E.; Steffen, K.

    2010-01-01

    A simulation of 51 years (1957-2008) has been performed over Greenland using the regional atmospheric climate model (RACMO2/GR) at a horizontal grid spacing of 11 km and forced by ECMWF re-analysis products. To better represent processes affecting ice sheet surface mass balance, such as meltwater re

  11. A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-01-01

    the production dhain that are vulnerable to itr o as well as providing a clearer picture of the path that cocaine takes before reading retail markts in...In fact, given the volatility of cocaine product prices in PBC, it is probably not uncommon for segments of production to be unprofitable at times

  12. Goal Model Integration for Tailoring Product Line Development Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arfan Mansoor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many companies rely on the promised benefits of product lines, targeting systems between fully custom made software and mass products. Such customized mass products account for a large number of applications automatically derived from a product line. This results in the special importance of product lines for companies with a large part of their product portfolio based on their product line. The success of product line development efforts is highly dependent on tailoring the development process. This paper presents an integrative model of influence factors to tailor product line development processes according to different project needs, organizational goals, individual goals of the developers or constraints of the environment. This model integrates goal models, SPEM models and requirements to tailor development processes.

  13. Information Sharing In Shipbuilding based on the Product State Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm

    1999-01-01

    The paper provides a review of product modelling technologies and the overall architecture for the Product State Model (PSM) environment as a basis for how dynamically updated product data can improve control of production activities. Especially, the paper focuses on the circumstances prevailing...... in a one-of-a-kind manufacturing environment like the shipbuilding industry, where product modelling technologies already have proved their worth in the design and engineering phases of shipbuilding and in the operation phase. However, the handling of product information on the shop floor is not yet...

  14. Multi products single machine EPQ model with immediate rework process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahangir Biabani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops an economic production quantity (EPQ inventory model with rework process for a single stage production system with one machine. The existence of a unique machine results in limited production capacity. The aim of this research is to determine both the optimal cycle length and the optimal production quantity for each product to minimize the expected total cost (holding, production, setup, rework costs. The convexity of the inventory model is derived. Also the objective function is proved to be convex. The proposed inventory model is validated with illustrating numerical examples and the optimal period length and the total system cost are analyzed.

  15. Optimal control policies for continuous review production-inventory models

    OpenAIRE

    Germs, Remco; Foreest, Nicky D. van

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a stochastic version of a single-item production-inventory system in which the demand process is a mixture of a compound Poisson process and a constant demand rate. This model generalizes classical continuous-review single product inventory models with infinite planning horizon such as the EOQ model or production-inventory models with compound Poisson demand. We establish for the first time conditions on the inventory costs and the demand distribution such that the ...

  16. Developing an Integrated Set of Production Planning and Control Models

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Hui

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes an integrated set of production planning and control models that can be applied in the Push system (Make-to-stock). The integrated model include forecasting, aggregate planning, materials requirements planning, inventory control, capacity planning and scheduling. This integrated model solves the planning issues via three levels, which include strategic level, tactical level and operational level. The model obtains the optimal production plan for each product type in each p...

  17. Optimal control policies for continuous review production-inventory models

    OpenAIRE

    Germs, Remco; Foreest, Nicky D. van

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a stochastic version of a single-item production-inventory system in which the demand process is a mixture of a compound Poisson process and a constant demand rate. This model generalizes classical continuous-review single product inventory models with infinite planning horizon such as the EOQ model or production-inventory models with compound Poisson demand. We establish for the first time conditions on the inventory costs and the demand distribution such that the ...

  18. Information Technology Model for Product Lifecycle Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhanumathi KS

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available An aircraft is a complex, multi-disciplinary, system-engineered product that requires real-time global technical collaboration through its life-cycle. Engineering data and processes which form the backbone of the aircraft should be under strict Configuration Control (CC. It should be model-based and allow for 3D visualization and manipulation. This requires accurate, realtime collaboration and concurrent engineering-based business processes operating in an Integrated Digital Environment (IDE. The IDE uses lightweight, neutral Computer Aided Design (CAD Digital Mock-Up (DMU. The DMU deals with complex structural assemblies and systems of more than a hundred thousand parts created by engineers across the globe, each using diverse CAD, Computer Aided Engineering (CAE, Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM, Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM, Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP, Supply Chain Management(SCM,Customer Relationship Management(CRM and Computer Aided Maintenance Management System (CAMMS systems. In this paper, a comprehensive approach to making such an environment a reality is presented.

  19. Modeling dark fermentation for biohydrogen production: ADM1-based model vs. Gompertz model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gadhamshetty, Venkataramana [Air Force Research Laboratory, Tyndall AFB, 139 Barnes Drive, Panama City, FL 32403 (United States); Arudchelvam, Yalini; Nirmalakhandan, Nagamany [Civil Engineering Department, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States); Johnson, David C. [Institute for Energy and Environment, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003 (United States)

    2010-01-15

    Biohydrogen production by dark fermentation in batch reactors was modeled using the Gompertz equation and a model based on Anaerobic Digestion Model (ADM1). The ADM1 framework, which has been well accepted for modeling methane production by anaerobic digestion, was modified in this study for modeling hydrogen production. Experimental hydrogen production data from eight reactor configurations varying in pressure conditions, temperature, type and concentration of substrate, inocula source, and stirring conditions were used to evaluate the predictive abilities of the two modeling approaches. Although the quality of fit between the measured and fitted hydrogen evolution by the Gompertz equation was high in all the eight reactor configurations with r{sup 2} {proportional_to}0.98, each configuration required a different set of model parameters, negating its utility as a general approach to predict hydrogen evolution. On the other hand, the ADM1-based model (ADM1BM) with predefined parameters was able to predict COD, cumulative hydrogen production, as well as volatile fatty acids production, albeit at a slightly lower quality of fit. Agreement between the experimental temporal hydrogen evolution data and the ADM1BM predictions was statistically significant with r{sup 2} > 0.91 and p-value <1E-04. Sensitivity analysis of the validated model revealed that hydrogen production was sensitive to only six parameters in the ADM1BM. (author)

  20. Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

    2015-04-01

    This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the last century built on the NOAA 20th century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at delivering appropriate meteorological forcings for continuous distributed hydrological modelling over the last 140 years. The longer term objective is to improve our knowledge of major historical hydrometeorological events having occurred outside of the last 50-year period, over which comprehensive reconstructions and observations are available. It would constitute a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies. The Sandhy (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for Hydrology) statistical downscaling method (Radanovics et al., 2013), initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between 20CR predictors - temperature, geopotential shape, vertical velocity and relative humidity - and local predictands - precipitation and temperature - relevant for catchment-scale hydrology. Multiple predictor domains for geopotential shape are retained from a local optimisation over France using the Safran near-surface reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010). Sandhy gives an ensemble of 125 equally plausible gridded precipitation and temperature time series over the whole 1871-2012 period. Previous studies showed that Sandhy precipitation outputs are very slightly biased at the annual time scale. Nevertheless, the seasonal precipitation signal for areas with a high interannual variability is not well simulated. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and underestimated. Reliable seasonal precipitation and temperature signals are however necessary for hydrological modelling, especially for evapotranspiration and snow accumulation/snowmelt processes. Two different post-processing methods are

  1. Property Modelling for Applications in Chemical Product and Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    Physical-chemical properties of pure chemicals and their mixtures play an important role in the design of chemicals based products and the processes that manufacture them. Although, the use of experimental data in design and analysis of chemicals based products and their processes is desirable...... such as database, property model library, model parameter regression, and, property-model based product-process design will be presented. The database contains pure component and mixture data for a wide range of organic chemicals. The property models are based on the combined group contribution and atom...... modeling tools in design and analysis of chemical product-process design, including biochemical processes will be highlighted....

  2. A Model to Improve the Quality Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan GOKKAYA

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The topic of this paper is to present a solution who can improve product qualityfollowing the idea: “Unlike people who have verbal skills, machines use "sign language"to communicate what hurts or what has invaded their system’. Recognizing the "signs"or symptoms that the machine conveys is a required skill for those who work withmachines and are responsible for their care and feeding. The acoustic behavior of technical products is predominantly defined in the design stage, although the acoustic characteristics of machine structures can be analyze and give a solution for the actual products and create a new generation of products. The paper describes the steps intechnological process for a product and the solution who will reduce the costs with the non-quality of product and improve the management quality.

  3. A model for individual egg production in chickens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grossman, M.; Koops, W.J.

    2001-01-01

    Our primary objective was to improve on an existing model for the individual weekly egg production curve by modeling the curve as a sum of logistic functions: one for the increasing phase of production and a sum for the decreasing phases. To illustrate the model, we used four data sets from two

  4. Parallel Development of Products and New Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Morten; Hansen, Poul H. Kyvsgård

    2014-01-01

    The perception of product development and the practical execution of product development in professional organizations have undergone dramatic changes in recent years. Many of these chances relate to introduction of broader and more cross-disciplinary views that involves new organizational functi...... and innovation management the 4th generation models are increasingly including the concept business models and business model innovation....

  5. A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic su...

  6. From Commodity Production to Sign Production: A Triple Triangle Model for Marx's Semiotics and Peirce's Economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joohoan

    Using the viewpoint of semiotics, this paper "re-reads" Karl Marx's labor theory of value and suggests a "triple triangle" model for commodity production and shows how this model could be a model for semiosis in general. The paper argues that there are three advantages to considering homogeneity of the sign production and the…

  7. Design models in the development of mechatronic products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Tufail; Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

    2012-01-01

    with the aid of models. The role of software not only as part of the product but also in the development process. These models contribute to product structuring and evaluation of design process by reducing the complexity and their use for product customization.......In view of widespread application of mechatronic systems and the competition to offer customized products at high quality and low cost, there has been considerable attention to introduce new methods and models in this regard. This paper explores design process of mechatronic product development...

  8. Modeling of gold production in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Nora; Ainuddeen, Nasihah Rasyiqah; Ismail, Hamizun; Umor, Mohd Rozi

    2013-04-01

    This study was conducted to identify the main factors that contribute to the gold production and hence determine the factors that affect to the development of the mining industry in Malaysia. An econometric approach was used by performing the cointegration analysis among the factors to determine the existence of long term relationship between the gold prices, the number of gold mines, the number of workers in gold mines and the gold production. The study continued with the Granger analysis to determine the relationship between factors and gold production. Results have found that there are long term relationship between price, gold production and number of employees. Granger causality analysis shows that there is only one way relationship between the number of employees with gold production in Malaysia and the number of gold mines in Malaysia.

  9. Concurrent engineering and product models in seafood companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan; Børresen, Torger

    1998-01-01

    Concurrent Engineering (CE) can provide an improved approach to product development for extending the lines of seafood products. Information technology (IT) support tools based on product models can provide an integrated and simultaneous approach for specifying new recipes. The seafood industry can...... benefit from the CE approach which can support product developers to provide concurrent specifications for raw materials, ingredients, packaging, and production methods. The approach involves the use of product models from which line extensions are more easily generated than by use of customary stepwise...

  10. Semiclassical model for pion production by neutrons on nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Sparrow, D A; Sternheim, M M

    1974-01-01

    A model for pion production by neutrons on nuclei is derived by a straightforward extension of the semiclassical model for pion production by protons, previously described by two of the present authors, Silbar and Sternheim (1973). Both models are then applied to compute pion production cross sections for nucleons incident on Pb, Cu and Al, and pion absorption cross sections in nuclear matter. Results are consistent with (unpublished) experimental data from CERN. (10 refs).

  11. Kinetic models for fermentative hydrogen production: A review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jianlong; Wan, Wei [Laboratory of Environmental Technology, INET, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084 (China)

    2009-05-15

    The kinetic models were developed and applied for fermentative hydrogen production. They were used to describe the progress of a batch fermentative hydrogen production process, to investigate the effects of substrate concentration, inhibitor concentration, temperatures, pH, and dilution rates on the process of fermentative hydrogen production, and to establish the relationship among the substrate degradation rate, the hydrogen-producing bacteria growth rate and the product formation rate. This review showed that the modified Gompertz model was widely used to describe the progress of a batch fermentative hydrogen production process, while the Monod model was widely used to describe the effects of substrate concentration on the rates of substrate degradation, hydrogen-producing bacteria growth and hydrogen production. Arrhenius model was used a lot to describe the effects of temperature on fermentative hydrogen production, while modified Han-Levenspiel model was used to describe the effects of inhibitor concentration on fermentative hydrogen production. The Andrew model was used to describe the effects of H{sup +} concentration on the specific hydrogen production rate, while the Luedeking-Piret model and its modified form were widely used to describe the relationship between the hydrogen-producing bacteria growth rate and the product formation rate. Finally, some suggestions for future work with these kinetic models were proposed. (author)

  12. An economic production model for time dependent demand with rework and multiple production setups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.R. Singh

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present a model for time dependent demand with multiple productions and rework setups. Production is demand dependent and greater than the demand rate. Production facility produces items in m production setups and one rework setup (m, 1 policy. The major reason of reverse logistic and green supply chain is rework, so it reduces the cost of production and other ecological problems. Most of the researchers developed a rework model without deteriorating items. A numerical example and sensitivity analysis is shown to describe the model.

  13. Evaluation of the ability of the MACC-II Reanalysis to reproduce the distribution of O3 and CO in the UTLS as measured by MOZAIC-IAGOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudel, A.; Clark, H.; Thouret, V.; Eskes, H.; Huijnen, V.; Nedelec, P.

    2013-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone is probably one of the most important trace gases in the atmosphere. It plays a major role in the chemistry of the troposphere by exerting a strong influence on the concentrations of oxidants such as hydroxyl radical (OH) and is the third greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide and methane. Its radiative impact is of particular importance in the Upper Troposphere / Lower Stratosphere (UTLS), the most critical region regarding the climate change. Carbon Monoxide (CO) is one of the major ozone precursors (originating from all types of combustion) in the troposphere. In the UTLS, it also has implications for stratospheric chemistry and indirect radiative forcing effects (as a chemical precursor of CO2 and O3). Assessing the global distribution (and possibly trends) of O3 and CO in this region of the atmosphere, combining high resolution in situ data and the most appropriate global 3D model to further quantify the different sources and their origins is then of particular interest. This is one of the objectives of the MOZAIC-IAGOS (http://www.iagos.fr) and MACC-II (http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu) European programs. The aircraft of the MOZAIC program have collected simultaneously O3 and CO data regularly all over the world since the end of 2001. Most of the data are recorded in northern mid-latitudes, in the UTLS region (as commercial aircraft cruise altitude is between 9 and 12 km). MACC-II aims at providing information services covering air quality, climate forcing and stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and solar-energy resources, using near real time analysis and forecasting products, and reanalysis. The validation reports of the MACC models are regularly published (http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/services/gac/nrt/ and http://www.gmes-atmosphere.eu/services/gac/reanalysis/). We will present and discuss the performance of the MACC-reanalysis, including the ECMWF-Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) coupled to the CTM MOZART with 4DVAR data assimilation, to

  14. Economic production quantity models for imperfect product and service with rework

    OpenAIRE

    Tai, Allen H.

    2012-01-01

    When imperfect quality products are produced in a production process, rework may be performed to make them become serviceable. In an inventory system, items may deteriorate. Selling deteriorated items to customers will create negative impact on corporate image. In this paper, two economic production quantity (EPQ) models are proposed for deteriorating items with rework process. A single production-rework plant system and a system consists of $n$ production plants and one rework plant are cons...

  15. Multi products single machine economic production quantity model with multiple batch size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ata Allah Taleizadeh

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a multi products single machine economic order quantity model with discrete delivery is developed. A unique cycle length is considered for all produced items with an assumption that all products are manufactured on a single machine with a limited capacity. The proposed model considers different items such as production, setup, holding, and transportation costs. The resulted model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming model. Harmony search algorithm, extended cutting plane and particle swarm optimization methods are used to solve the proposed model. Two numerical examples are used to analyze and to evaluate the performance of the proposed model.

  16. Product with service, technology with business model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service......-Systems (PSS) design. This paper first explains PSS design as a type of an expansion of the engineering design of a physical product. Secondly, it gives a review of PSS research and a projection of future research issues, also ranging out into untraditional fields of research. Finally, it presents a new...

  17. Architecture of the Product State Model Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm Larsen, Michael; Lynggaard, Hans Jørgen B.

    2003-01-01

    technologies already haveproved their worth in the design and engineering phases of shipbuilding and in the operation phase.However, the handling of product information on the shop floor is not yet equally developed.The paper reports from the Brite-Euram project (No. BE97-4510) QualiGlobe focusing...... on thedevelopment activities of the PSM architecture. An example discusses how to handle product relatedinformation on the shop floor in a manufacturing company and focuses on how dynamically updatedproduct data can improve control of production activities. This prototype example of welding a jointbetween two steel...

  18. A production scheduling simulation model for improving production efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Liang Yang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A real manufacturing system of an electronic company was mimicked by using a simulation model. The effects of dispatching rules and resources allocations on performance measures were explored. The results indicated that the dispatching rules of shortest processing time (SPT and earliest due date are superior to the current rule of first in first out adopted by the company. A new combined rule, the smallest quotient of dividing shortest remaining processing time (SRPT by SPT (SRPT/SPT_Min, has been proposed and demonstrated the best performance on mean tardiness time under the current resources situation. The results also showed that using fewer resources can increase their utilization, but it increases the risk of delivery tardiness as well, which in turn will damage the organization’s reputation in the long run. Some suggestions for future work were presented.

  19. Modeling of Agile Intelligent Manufacturing-oriented Production Scheduling System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhong-Qi Sheng; Chang-Ping Tang; Ci-Xing Lv

    2010-01-01

    Agile intelligent manufacturing is one of the new manufacturing paradigms that adapt to the fierce globalizing market competition and meet the survival needs of the enterprises, in which the management and control of the production system have surpassed the scope of individual enterprise and embodied some new features including complexity, dynamicity, distributivity, and compatibility. The agile intelligent manufacturing paradigm calls for a production scheduling system that can support the cooperation among various production sectors, the distribution of various resources to achieve rational organization, scheduling and management of production activities. This paper uses multi-agents technology to build an agile intelligent manufacturing-oriented production scheduling system. Using the hybrid modeling method, the resources and functions of production system are encapsulated, and the agent-based production system model is established. A production scheduling-oriented multi-agents architecture is constructed and a multi-agents reference model is given in this paper.

  20. Using the OMI aerosol index and absorption aerosol optical depth to evaluate the NASA MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buchard, V.; da Silva, A. M.; Colarco, P. R.; Darmenov, A.; Randles, C. A.; Govindaraju, R.; Torres, O.; Campbell, J.; Spurr, R.

    2015-05-01

    A radiative transfer interface has been developed to simulate the UV aerosol index (AI) from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) aerosol assimilated fields. The purpose of this work is to use the AI and aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements as independent validation for the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Aerosol Reanalysis (MERRAero). MERRAero is based on a version of the GEOS-5 model that is radiatively coupled to the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) aerosol module and includes assimilation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. Since AI is dependent on aerosol concentration, optical properties and altitude of the aerosol layer, we make use of complementary observations to fully diagnose the model, including AOD from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR), aerosol retrievals from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and attenuated backscatter coefficients from the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) mission to ascertain potential misplacement of plume height by the model. By sampling dust, biomass burning and pollution events in 2007 we have compared model-produced AI and AAOD with the corresponding OMI products, identifying regions where the model representation of absorbing aerosols was deficient. As a result of this study over the Saharan dust region, we have obtained a new set of dust aerosol optical properties that retains consistency with the MODIS AOD data that were assimilated, while resulting in better agreement with aerosol absorption measurements from OMI. The analysis conducted over the southern African and South American biomass burning regions indicates that revising the spectrally dependent aerosol absorption properties in the near-UV region improves the modeled-observed AI comparisons

  1. A Model to Improve the Quality Products

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    The topic of this paper is to present a solution who can improve product quality following the idea: “Unlike people who have verbal skills, machines use "sign language" to communicate what hurts or what has invaded their system’. Recognizing the "signs" or symptoms that the machine conveys is a required skill for those who work with machines and are responsible for their care and feeding. The acoustic behavior of technical products is predominantly defined in the design stage, although the ac...

  2. Dynamical model of electroweak pion production in the resonance region

    CERN Document Server

    Sato, T; Kubodera, K; Lee, T S H

    2006-01-01

    In this report, we will briefly review the dynamical model of pion electroweak production reactions in the $\\Delta$ resonance region and report on our study of neutrino-nucleus reactions based on this model.

  3. Bass-SIR model for diffusion of new products

    CERN Document Server

    Fibich, Gadi

    2016-01-01

    We consider the diffusion of new products in social networks, where consumers who adopt the product can later "recover" and stop influencing others to adopt the product. We show that the diffusion is not described by the SIR model, but rather by a novel model, the Bass-SIR model, which combines the Bass model for diffusion of new products with the SIR model for epidemics. The phase transition of consumers from non-adopters to adopters is described by a non-standard Kolmogorov-Johnson-Mehl-Avrami model, in which clusters growth is limited by adopters' recovery. Therefore, diffusion in the Bass-SIR model only depends on the local structure of the social network, but not on the average distance between consumers. Consequently, unlike the SIR model, a small-worlds structure has a negligible effect on the diffusion. Surprisingly, diffusion on scale-free networks is nearly identical to that on Cartesian ones.

  4. BRAM: a reanalysis of Aura MLS chemical observations by the Belgian Assimilation System for Chemical ObsErvations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Errera, Quentin; Braathen, Geir; Chabrillat, Simon; Christophe, Yves; Santee, Michelle; Skachko, Sergey

    2017-04-01

    BRAM is a reanalysis of Aura MLS observations produced by the Belgian Assimilation System of Chemical ObsErvations (BASCOE). BASCOE is based on a chemistry transport model (CTM) for the stratosphere involving 58 species. All species are advected by the Flux Form Semi-Lagrangian (FFSL) scheme (i.e. Lin and Rood, 1996). The CTM account for gas phase, photolysis and heterogeneous reactions relevant for the stratosphere. Micro-physics of Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) is also taken into account in the model by a simple parameterization. For this study, the model is driven by ERA-Interim dynamical fields. The horizontal resolution is set to 2.5° in latitude and 3.75° in longitude. Vertically, the model has 37 levels from the surface to 0.1 hPa which correspond to the ERA-Interim levels in the stratosphere and a subset of them in the troposphere. BASCOE can be run in 4D-Var or EnKF and for BRAM, the EnKF method has been used. The period of the reanalysis starts in August 2004, at the beginning of the MLS mission, and go up to the present. Assimilated species are MLS retrieved profiles of O3, CO, H2O, N2O, HNO3, HCl, ClO and CH3Cl. This contribution will present the setup of BASCOE, the evaluation of BRAM and the way to get the data.

  5. Incurred sample reanalysis (ISR): a decisive tool in bioanalytical research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Manish; Shrivastav, Pranav S

    2011-05-01

    The AAPS Workshop 2008 on Current Topics in GLP Bioanalysis: Assay Reproducibility for Incurred Samples was the defining moment in establishing incurred sample reanalysis (ISR) as a mandatory exercise in demonstrating assay reproducibility using incurred (study) samples. The importance of ISR can be envisaged from its role in clinical as well as non-clinical studies. Incurred samples can differ significantly in their composition when compared with the calibration standards and quality control samples that are used to validate the developed method. The present article attempts to summarize five troubleshooting cases encountered in the analyses of incurred samples for bioanalytical methods developed in our laboratory for mesalamine, hydrochlorothiazide, clopidogrel, sildenafil and rabeprazole. The issues identified were related to: sample inhomogeneity, sample processing error, impact of buffer pH during sample preparation, instability of metabolite and change in laboratory environment. The steps taken to trace and correct these incidents are discussed with adequate data. These examples will further broaden the scope and emphasize the significance of ISR. We believe this investigation will help to develop more reliable and efficient bioanalytical methods.

  6. Reanalysis of "Raptorex kriegsteini": a juvenile tyrannosaurid dinosaur from Mongolia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Denver W; Woodward, Holly N; Freedman, Elizabeth A; Larson, Peter L; Horner, John R

    2011-01-01

    The carnivorous Tyrannosauridae are among the most iconic dinosaurs: typified by large body size, tiny forelimbs, and massive robust skulls with laterally thickened teeth. The recently described small-bodied tyrannosaurid Raptorex kreigsteini is exceptional as its discovery proposes that many of the distinctive anatomical traits of derived tyrannosaurids were acquired in the Early Cretaceous, before the evolution of large body size. This inference depends on two core interpretations: that the holotype (LH PV18) derives from the Lower Cretaceous of China, and that despite its small size, it is a subadult or young adult. Here we show that the published data is equivocal regarding stratigraphic position and that ontogenetic reanalysis shows there is no reason to conclude that LH PV18 has reached this level of maturity. The probable juvenile status of LH PV18 makes its use as a holotype unreliable, since diagnostic features of Raptorex may be symptomatic of its immature status, rather than its actual phylogenetic position. These findings are consistent with the original sale description of LH PV18 as a juvenile Tarbosaurus from the Upper Cretaceous of Mongolia. Consequently, we suggest that there is currently no evidence to support the conclusion that tyrannosaurid skeletal design first evolved in the Early Cretaceous at small body size.

  7. Uncertainties and re-analysis of glacier mass balance measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Zemp

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Glacier-wide mass balance has been measured for more than sixty years and is widely used as an indicator of climate change and to assess the glacier contribution to runoff and sea level rise. Until present, comprehensive uncertainty assessments have rarely been carried out and mass balance data have often been applied using rough error estimation or without error considerations. In this study, we propose a framework for re-analyzing glacier mass balance series including conceptual and statistical toolsets for assessment of random and systematic errors as well as for validation and calibration (if necessary of the glaciological with the geodetic balance results. We demonstrate the usefulness and limitations of the proposed scheme drawing on an analysis that comprises over 50 recording periods for a dozen glaciers and we make recommendations to investigators and users of glacier mass balance data. Reanalysis of glacier mass balance series needs to become a standard procedure for every monitoring programme to improve data quality and provide thorough uncertainty estimates.

  8. Comparing Sudden Stratospheric Warming Definitions in Reanalysis Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmeiro, Froila M.; Barriopedro, David; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Calvo, Natalia

    2015-04-01

    Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are the main source of variability in the northern hemisphere polar stratosphere during winter. They are characterized by a dramatic warming of the polar stratosphere and weakening of the polar vortex circulation. SSWs can have an impact on surface weather, which makes them a potential tool for seasonal prediction. However, there is no consensus on the definition of SSWs, and multiple methods exist in the literature, yielding discrepancies on the detected events. In this presentation we compare the SSWs signatures of eight representative definitions for the 1958-2009 period and using three different reanalysis data (ERA, NCEP and JRA). The monthly distribution of SSWs is indistinguishable across definitions, with a common peak in January. However, the multi-decadal variability is method-dependent, with only three definitions displaying minimum frequencies in the 1990s. Comparison of several SSW benchmarks reveals negligible differences among methods due to the large case-to-case variability of events within a given definition. In the troposphere, the most robust signals across definitions before and after events are dominated by major SSWs, which are detected by most methods. Interestingly, minor SSWs represent the largest source of discrepancy in the surface signals of SSWs across definitions. Therefore, our results indicate that only major SSWs should be considered in future studies if robust tropospheric signals of SSWs want to be obtained regardless of the chosen method.

  9. Modeling the continuous lactic acid production process from wheat flour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Karen; Tebbani, Sihem; Lopes, Filipa; Thorigné, Aurore; Givry, Sébastien; Dumur, Didier; Pareau, Dominique

    2016-01-01

    A kinetic model of the simultaneous saccharification, protein hydrolysis, and fermentation (SSPHF) process for lactic acid production from wheat flour has been developed. The model describes the bacterial growth, substrate consumption, lactic acid production, and maltose hydrolysis. The model was fitted and validated with data from SSPHF experiments obtained under different dilution rates. The results of the model are in good agreement with the experimental data. Steady state concentrations of biomass, lactic acid, glucose, and maltose as function of the dilution rate were predicted by the model. This steady state analysis is further useful to determine the operating conditions that maximize lactic acid productivity.

  10. A model for marketing planning of new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1994-01-01

    Executive Summary: 1. A model for forecasting the sales of a new product is presented. This model allows to predict the sales development of a new product before it is actually launched on the market. 2. The model makes separate forecasts for the volume of trial and repeat purchases. It also...... the product after some time. 6. The model requires three types of data input: market data, market research data, and marketing plan data. Using these data, prediction can be made by a user-friendly PC programme. 7. An example is shown demonstrating that the predictions made by the model were in good...

  11. Criteria Assessment Model for Sustainable Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohd Turan, Faiz; Johan, Kartina; Hisyamudin Muhd Nor, Nik

    2016-11-01

    The instability in today's market and the ever increasing and emerging demands for mass customized and hybrid products by customers, are driving companies and decision makers to seek for cost effective and time efficient improvements in their product development process. Design concept evaluation which is the end of conceptual design is one of the most critical decision points in product development. It relates to the final success of product development, because poor criteria assessment in design concept evaluation can rarely compensated at the later stages. This has led to real pressure for the adaptation of new developmental architecture and operational parameters to remain competitive in the market. In this paper, a new integrated design concept evaluation based on fuzzy-technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (Fuzzy-TOPSIS) is presented, and it also attempts to incorporate sustainability practices in assessing the criteria. Prior to Fuzzy-TOPSIS, a new scale of “Weighting criteria” for survey process is developed to quantify the evaluation criteria. This method will help engineers to improve the effectiveness and objectivity of the sustainable product development. Case example from industry is presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology. The result of the example shows that the new integrated method provides an alternative to existing methods of design concept evaluation.

  12. MODEL2TALK: An Intervention to Promote Productive Classroom Talk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Veen, Chiel; van der Wilt, Femke; van Kruistum, Claudia; van Oers, Bert; Michaels, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    This article describes the MODEL2TALK intervention, which aims to promote young children's oral communicative competence through productive classroom talk. Productive classroom talk provides children in early childhood education with many opportunities to talk and think together. Results from a large-scale study show that productive classroom talk…

  13. Concurrent engineering and product models in seafood companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Stella; Vesterager, Johan; Børresen, Torger

    1998-01-01

    Concurrent Engineering (CE) can provide an improved approach to product development for extending the lines of seafood products. Information technology (IT) support tools based on product models can provide an integrated and simultaneous approach for specifying new recipes. The seafood industry c...

  14. Natural products--a simple model to explain chemical diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Firn, Richard D; Jones, Clive G

    2003-08-01

    A simple evolutionary model is presented which explains why organisms produce so many natural products, why so many have low biological activity, why enzymes involved in natural product synthesis have the properties they do and why natural product metabolism is shaped as it is.

  15. Water production models for Comet Bradfield (1979 l)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, H. A.; Feldman, P. D.; Festou, M. C.

    1981-01-01

    The IUE observations of Comet Bradfield (1979 l) made 10 January 1980 to 3 March 1980 permit a detailed study of water production for this comet. Brightness measurements are presented for all three water dissociation products, H, O, and OH, and comparisons are made with model predictions. The heliocentric variation of the water production rate was derived.

  16. Single photons from relativistic collision of lead nuclei at CERN SPS: A reanalysis

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Rupa; Jeon, Sangyong

    2009-01-01

    We present a reanalysis of single photon production from relativistic collision of lead nuclei at CERN SPS measured by the WA98 experiment. The refinements include use of iso-spin and shadowing corrected NLO pQCD treatment for prompt photon production using an optimized scale for factorization, renormalization, and fragmentation and use of hydrodynamics suited for non-central collisions along with a well tested equation of state admitting a quark-hadron phase transition. A quantitative explanation of the data requires a large initial temperature (at a small formation time of about 0.2 fm/$c$) and a moderate increase in the prompt yield which could perhaps be attributed to the Cronin effect in nuclei. The data can also be explained using a moderate initial temperature (at a formation time of about 1 fm/$c$) with a very large $K$-factor multiplying the prompt yield. We show that different initial times give rise to different values for the elliptic flow parameter $v_2$ for thermal photons. We also show that a m...

  17. Models of production runs for multiple products in flexible manufacturing system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilić Oliver

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available How to determine economic production runs (EPR for multiple products in flexible manufacturing systems (FMS is considered in this paper. Eight different although similar, models are developed and presented. The first four models are devoted to the cases when no shortage is allowed. The other four models are some kind of generalization of the previous ones when shortages may exist. The numerical examples are given as the illustration of the proposed models.

  18. Model-based optimization of production systems

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Gas lifted method is one of the artificial lift technique used in the oil and gas industry.This method is applied most in oil well to improve the oil recovery by lowering the bottomhole pressure. Normally in the field there are multi-gas lifted wells that requires certain amount of gas to be injected to achieve the maximum oil production. Generally the amount of gas available is limited, therefore is has to be allocated per well in the best way possible to achieve maximum oil production in...

  19. Developing a Decision Model of Sustainable Product Design and Development from Product Servicizing in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Chen; Tu, Jui-Che; Hung, So-Jeng

    2016-01-01

    In response to the global trend of low carbon and the concept of sustainable development, enterprises need to develop R&D for the manufacturing of energy-saving and sustainable products and low carbon products. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct a decision model for sustainable product design and development from product…

  20. Developing a Decision Model of Sustainable Product Design and Development from Product Servicizing in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Chen; Tu, Jui-Che; Hung, So-Jeng

    2016-01-01

    In response to the global trend of low carbon and the concept of sustainable development, enterprises need to develop R&D for the manufacturing of energy-saving and sustainable products and low carbon products. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to construct a decision model for sustainable product design and development from product…

  1. An ETAS model with varying productivity rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harte, D. S.

    2014-07-01

    We present an epidemic type aftershock sequenc (ETAS) model where the offspring rates vary both spatially and temporally. This is achieved by distinguishing between those space-time volumes where the interpoint space and time distances are small, and those where they are considerably larger. We also question the nature of the background component in the ETAS model. Is it simply a temporal boundary correction (t = 0) or does it represent an additional tectonic process not described by the aftershock component? The form of these stochastic models should not be considered to be fixed. As we accumulate larger and better earthquake catalogues, GPS data, strain rates, etc., we have the ability to ask more complex questions about the nature of the process. By fitting modified models consistent with such questions, we should gain a better insight into the earthquake process. Hence, we consider a sequence of incrementally modified ETAS type models rather than `the' ETAS model.

  2. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Ouden, M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering inc

  3. A New Mathematical Modeling Technique for Pull Production Control Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Srikanth

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The Kanban Control System widely used to control the release of parts of multistage manufacturing system operating under a pull production control system. Most of the work on Kanban Control System deals with multi-product manufacturing system. In this paper, we are proposing a regression modeling technique in a multistage manufacturing system is to be coordinates the release of parts into each stage of the system with the arrival of customer demands for final products. And also comparing two variants stages of the Kanban Control System model and combines with mathematical and Simulink model for the production coordination of parts in an assembly manufacturing systems. In both variants, the production of a new subassembly is authorized only when an assembly Kanban is available. Assembly kanbans become available when finished product is consumed. A simulation environment for the product line system has to generate with the proposed model and the mathematical model have to give implementation against the simulation model in the working platform of MATLAB. Both the simulation and model outputs have provided an in depth analysis of each of the resulting control system for offering model of a product line system.

  4. Economic modelling of pork production-marketing chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouden, den M.

    1996-01-01

    The research described in this thesis was focused on the development of economic simulation and optimization computer models to support decision making with respect to pork production- marketing chains. The models include three production stages: pig farrowing, pig fattening and pig slaughtering

  5. Modelling biomass production and yield of horticultural crops: a review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marcelis, L.F.M.; Heuvelink, E.; Goudriaan, J.

    1998-01-01

    Descriptive and explanatory modelling of biomass production and yield of horticultural crops is reviewed with special reference to the simulation of leaf area, light interception, dry matter (DM) production, DM partitioning and DM content. Most models for prediction of harvest date (timing of produc

  6. A DYNAMIC OPTIMAL ADVERTISING MODEL FOR NEW PRODUCTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    Many dynamic optimal control models for advertising make efforts to solve the problem of determining optimal advertising expenditures and other variables of interest over time for a firm or several competing firms,However,after analyzing the extant literature,one can find that few dynamic optimal advertising models available consider the problem within the product diffusion framework.Furthermore,the established models involving product diffusion are inspired by the Bass model,which has been out of date.This paper poses a dynamic optimal advertising model for new products,which considers the product diffusion based on the relative newly developed generalized version of the Bass model.In this paper,the optimal control model is used to derive the optimal advertising expenditure policy,which gives some implications to advertising practice.

  7. Benchmark campaign and case study episode in central Europe for development and assessment of advanced GNSS tropospheric models and products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douša, Jan; Dick, Galina; Kačmařík, Michal; Brožková, Radmila; Zus, Florian; Brenot, Hugues; Stoycheva, Anastasia; Möller, Gregor; Kaplon, Jan

    2016-07-01

    Initial objectives and design of the Benchmark campaign organized within the European COST Action ES1206 (2013-2017) are described in the paper. This campaign has aimed to support the development and validation of advanced Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) tropospheric products, in particular high-resolution and ultra-fast zenith total delays (ZTDs) and tropospheric gradients derived from a dense permanent network. A complex data set was collected for the 8-week period when several extreme heavy precipitation episodes occurred in central Europe which caused severe river floods in this area. An initial processing of data sets from GNSS products and numerical weather models (NWMs) provided independently estimated reference parameters - zenith tropospheric delays and tropospheric horizontal gradients. Their provision gave an overview about the product similarities and complementarities, and thus a potential for improvements of a synergy in their optimal exploitations in future. Reference GNSS and NWM results were intercompared and visually analysed using animated maps. ZTDs from two reference GNSS solutions compared to global ERA-Interim reanalysis resulted in accuracy at the 10 mm level in terms of the root mean square (rms) with a negligible overall bias, comparisons to Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts showed accuracy at the 12 mm level with the overall bias of -5 mm and, finally, comparisons to mesoscale ALADIN-CZ forecast resulted in accuracy at the 8 mm level with a negligible total bias. The comparison of horizontal tropospheric gradients from GNSS and NWM data demonstrated a very good agreement among independent solutions with negligible biases and an accuracy of about 0.5 mm. Visual comparisons of maps of zenith wet delays and tropospheric horizontal gradients showed very promising results for future exploitations of advanced GNSS tropospheric products in meteorological applications, such as severe weather event monitoring and weather nowcasting

  8. A system dynamics model to determine products mix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahtab Hajghasem

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an implementation of system dynamics model to determine appropriate product mix by considering various factors such as labor, materials, overhead, etc. for an Iranian producer of cosmetic and sanitary products. The proposed model of this paper considers three hypotheses including the relationship between product mix and profitability, optimum production capacity and having minimum amount of storage to take advantage of low cost production. The implementation of system dynamics on VENSIM software package has confirmed all three hypotheses of the survey and suggested that in order to reach better mix product, it is necessary to reach optimum production planning, take advantage of all available production capacities and use inventory management techniques.

  9. A wavelet-based non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (WNARX) dynamic neural network model for real-time flood forecasting using satellite-based rainfall products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanda, Trushnamayee; Sahoo, Bhabagrahi; Beria, Harsh; Chatterjee, Chandranath

    2016-08-01

    Although flood forecasting and warning system is a very important non-structural measure in flood-prone river basins, poor raingauge network as well as unavailability of rainfall data in real-time could hinder its accuracy at different lead times. Conversely, since the real-time satellite-based rainfall products are now becoming available for the data-scarce regions, their integration with the data-driven models could be effectively used for real-time flood forecasting. To address these issues in operational streamflow forecasting, a new data-driven model, namely, the wavelet-based non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (WNARX) is proposed and evaluated in comparison with four other data-driven models, viz., the linear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX), static artificial neural network (ANN), wavelet-based ANN (WANN), and dynamic nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) models. First, the quality of input rainfall products of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), viz., TRMM and TRMM-real-time (RT) rainfall products is assessed through statistical evaluation. The results reveal that the satellite rainfall products moderately correlate with the observed rainfall, with the gauge-adjusted TRMM product outperforming the real-time TRMM-RT product. The TRMM rainfall product better captures the ground observations up to 95 percentile range (30.11 mm/day), although the hit rate decreases for high rainfall intensity. The effect of antecedent rainfall (AR) and climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) temperature product on the catchment response is tested in all the developed models. The results reveal that, during real-time flow simulation, the satellite-based rainfall products generally perform worse than the gauge-based rainfall. Moreover, as compared to the existing models, the flow forecasting by the WNARX model is way better than the other four models studied herein with the

  10. Analytic modelling of production into complex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Egberts, P.J.P.; Fokker, P.A.

    2007-01-01

    The vast amount of completion options Tor hydrocarbon reservoirs calls for fast productivity evaluation tools. We present a calculation method that can perform this task. It is a semi-analytical method that fully accounts for the 3D flow near the well. A superposition of analytical functions is tune

  11. Modeling and Analysis of Information Product Maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heien, Christopher Harris

    2012-01-01

    Information Product Maps are visual diagrams used to represent the inputs, processing, and outputs of data within an Information Manufacturing System. A data unit, drawn as an edge, symbolizes a grouping of raw data as it travels through this system. Processes, drawn as vertices, transform each data unit input into various forms prior to delivery…

  12. Incomplete convolutions in production and inventory models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houtum, van G.J.; Zijm, W.H.M.

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, we study incomplete convolutions of continuous distribution functions, as they appear in the analysis of (multi-stage) production and inventory systems. Three example systems are discussed where these incomplete convolutions naturally arise. We derive explicit, nonrecursive formulae f

  13. A Scandinavian Model of Innovative Product Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McAloone, Timothy Charles; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup; Boelskifte, Per

    2007-01-01

    competencies. We reflect on our efforts to produce a new type of design professionalism, pointing to new roles and identities for the professional-ism of synthesis and innovation. Finally, we round up by articulating what we see as the future pattern of product development, which should be sup-ported already...

  14. Model driven product line engineering : core asset and process implications

    OpenAIRE

    Azanza Sesé, Maider

    2011-01-01

    Reuse is at the heart of major improvements in productivity and quality in Software Engineering. Both Model Driven Engineering (MDE) and Software Product Line Engineering (SPLE) are software development paradigms that promote reuse. Specifically, they promote systematic reuse and a departure from craftsmanship towards an industrialization of the software development process. MDE and SPLE have established their benefits separately. Their combination, here called Model Driven Product Line Engin...

  15. Using the Global Forest Products Model (GFPM version 2012)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph Buongiorno; Shushuai Zhu

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this manual is to enable users of the Global Forest Products Model to: • Install and run the GFPM software • Understand the input data • Change the input data to explore different scenarios • Interpret the output The GFPM is an economic model of global production, consumption and trade of forest products (Buongiorno et al. 2003). The GFPM2012 has data...

  16. ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC MODELS OF POTATO PRODUCTION IN MONTENEGRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miomir JOVANOVIC

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The northern region of Montenegro represents a very important resource for agricultural production. However, the depopulation of the analysed area, pronounced in-kind character of production without significant participation of market producers, lack of market research, stronger vertical and horizontal connection between primary production and processing sectors have significant impacts causing the low level of competitiveness of agricultural production. Potato production in the analysed area has recorded positive trends in last ten years. This paper presents economic models of agriculture households on the analysed area from the potatoes production point of view.

  17. Modeling for Growth and Forecasting of Pulse Production in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niaz Md. FarhatRahman

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study was carried out to estimate growth pattern and examine the best ARIMA model to efficiently forecasting pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. It appeared that the time series data for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea were 1st order homogenous stationary. Two types of models namely Box-Jenkins type Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA and deterministic type growth models, are examined to identify the best forecasting models for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production in Bangladesh. The study revealed that the best models were ARIMA (1, 1 and 1, ARIMA (0, 1 and 0 and ARIMA (1, 1 and 3 for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production, respectively. Among the deterministic type growth models, the cubic model is best for pigeon pea, chickpea and field pea pulse production. The analysis indicated that short-term forecasts were more efficient for ARIMA models compared to the deterministic models. The production uncertainty of pulse could be minimized if production were forecasted well and necessary steps were taken against losses. The findings of this study would be more useful for policy makers, researchers as well as producers in order to forecast future national pulse production more accurately in the short run.

  18. Evaluation of Mid-Depth Currents of NCEP Reanalysis Data in the Tropical Pacific Using ARGO Float Position Information

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The global project of the Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (ARGO) provides a unique opportunity to observe the absolute velocity in mid-depths of the world oceans. A total of 1597 velocity vectors at 1000 (2000) db in the tropical Pacific derived from the ARGO float position information during the period November 2001 to October 2004 are used to evaluate the intermediate currents of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis. To derive reliable velocity information from ARGO float trajectory points, a rigorous quality control scheme is applied, and by virtue of a correction method for reducing the drift error on the surface in obtaining the velocity vectors, their relative errors are less than 25%. Based on the comparisons from the quantitative velocity vectors and from the space-time average currents, some substantial discrepancies are revealed. The first is that the velocities of the reanalysis at mid-depths except near the equator are underestimated relative to the observed velocities by the floats.The average speed difference between NCEP and ARGO values ranges from about -2.3 cms-1 to -1.8cms-1. The second is that the velocity difference between the ocean model and the observations at 2000dB seems smaller than that at 1000 dB. The third is that the zonal flow in the reanalysis is too dominant so that some eddies could not be simulated, such as the cyclonic eddy to the east of 160°E between 20°N and 30°N at 2000 dB. In addition, it is noticeable that many floats parking at 1000 dB cannot acquire credible mid-depth velocities due to the time information of their end of ascent (start of descent) on the surface in the trajectory files. Thus, relying on default times of parking, descent and ascent in the metadata files gravely confines their application to measuring mid-depth currents.

  19. Enriching step-based product information models to support product life-cycle activities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarigecili, Mehmet Ilteris

    The representation and management of product information in its life-cycle requires standardized data exchange protocols. Standard for Exchange of Product Model Data (STEP) is such a standard that has been used widely by the industries. Even though STEP-based product models are well defined and syntactically correct, populating product data according to these models is not easy because they are too big and disorganized. Data exchange specifications (DEXs) and templates provide re-organized information models required in data exchange of specific activities for various businesses. DEXs show us it would be possible to organize STEP-based product models in order to support different engineering activities at various stages of product life-cycle. In this study, STEP-based models are enriched and organized to support two engineering activities: materials information declaration and tolerance analysis. Due to new environmental regulations, the substance and materials information in products have to be screened closely by manufacturing industries. This requires a fast, unambiguous and complete product information exchange between the members of a supply chain. Tolerance analysis activity, on the other hand, is used to verify the functional requirements of an assembly considering the worst case (i.e., maximum and minimum) conditions for the part/assembly dimensions. Another issue with STEP-based product models is that the semantics of product data are represented implicitly. Hence, it is difficult to interpret the semantics of data for different product life-cycle phases for various application domains. OntoSTEP, developed at NIST, provides semantically enriched product models in OWL. In this thesis, we would like to present how to interpret the GD & T specifications in STEP for tolerance analysis by utilizing OntoSTEP.

  20. Modelling energy consumption in a manufacturing plant using productivity KPIs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallachoir, Brian O.; Cahill, Caiman (Sustainable Energy Research Group, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Univ. College Cork (Ireland))

    2009-07-01

    Energy efficiency initiatives in industrial plants are often focused on getting energy-consuming utilities and devices to operate more efficiently, or on conserving energy. While such device-oriented energy efficiency measures can achieve considerable savings, greater energy efficiency improvement may be achieved by improving the overall productivity and quality of manufacturing processes. The paper highlights the observed relationship between productivity and energy efficiency using aggregated data on unit consumption and production index data for Irish industry. Past studies have developed simple top-down models of final energy consumption in manufacturing plants using energy consumption and production output figures, but these models do not help identify opportunities for energy savings that could achieved through increased productivity. This paper proposes an improved and innovative method of modelling plant final energy demand that introduces standard productivity Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) into the model. The model demonstrates the relationship between energy consumption and productivity, and uses standard productivity metrics to identify the areas of manufacturing activity that offer the most potential for improved energy efficiency. The model provides a means of comparing the effect of device-oriented energy efficiency measures with the potential for improved energy efficiency through increased productivity.

  1. Fuzzy production planning models for an unreliable production system with fuzzy production rate and stochastic/fuzzy demand rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Halim

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we consider a single-unit unreliable production system which produces a single item. During a production run, the production process may shift from the in-control state to the out-of-control state at any random time when it produces some defective items. The defective item production rate is assumed to be imprecise and is characterized by a trapezoidal fuzzy number. The production rate is proportional to the demand rate where the proportionality constant is taken to be a fuzzy number. Two production planning models are developed on the basis of fuzzy and stochastic demand patterns. The expected cost per unit time in the fuzzy sense is derived in each model and defuzzified by using the graded mean integration representation method. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the optimal results of the proposed fuzzy models.

  2. Integration of production data into reservoir models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliver, D.S.; Reynolds, A.C.; Abacioglu, Y. [Tulsa Univ., Dept. of Petroleum Engineering, Tulsa, OK (United States); Bi, Z. [Duke Univ., Mathematics Dept., Durham, NC (United States)

    2001-05-01

    The problem of mapping reservoir properties, such as porosity and permeability, and of assessing the uncertainty in the mapping has been largely approached probabilistically, i.e. uncertainty is estimated based on the properties of an ensemble of random realizations of the reservoir properties all of which satisfy constraints provided by data and prior geological knowledge. When the constraints include observations of production characteristics, the problem of generating a representative ensemble of realizations can be quite difficult partly because the connection between a measurement of water-cut or GOR at a well and the permeability at some other location is by no means obvious. In this paper, the progress towards incorporation of production data and remaining challenges are reviewed. (Author)

  3. Exploration of long-term reanalysis of Sierra Nevada snowpack inferred from snow covered area information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girotto, M.; Margulis, S. A.; Durand, M.

    2012-04-01

    The spatial heterogeneity of the mountain snowpack and a continuously changing climate affects a variety of processes including surface water discharge. An apparent shift in ablation time and loss of snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Sierra Nevada range in California (CA), U.S.A. has been reported from several past studies based on downstream flow and/or point scale in-situ observations records. Understanding the geophysical controls and interannual variability of the spatial patterns of snow accumulation and ablation are critical for predicting the effects of climate variability on the snowpack water storage. Therefore, a continuous space-time characterization of snow distribution that uses spatially and temporally extensive remotely sensed information is necessary to improve our ability to predict and monitor this vital resource in complex mountainous terrain. Toward this end, this research generates spatial and temporal SWE estimates over a snow-dominated watershed located in the Southern Sierra Nevada, CA. We use a reanalysis data assimilation approach that is capable of merging remotely sensed Snow Covered Area (SCA) data into snow prediction models, while at the same time accounting for the limitations of each. SCA information derived from the long-term record of Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper measurements are used. The assimilation of SCA into the land surface model, coupled together with a snow depletion model, predicts continuous (in space and time) SWE at a high spatial resolution. The resulting SWE dataset from the reanalysis framework, and its relation to physiographic properties, is studied to explore specific information related to how snow accumulation and snow melt has evolved and been effected by climate variability and change. In particular, the analysis focuses on highlighting how patterns related to different physiographic components respond to observed climate signals (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Oceanic El Niño Index (ONI)) and

  4. An EMQ model in an imperfect production process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

    2010-06-01

    The intention of this article is to develop a framework of production policy (resumption and non-resumption) in order to find out optimal safety stock, optimal production rate and production lot size. It encompasses specific versions of the concept of quality and inventory model, stochastic machine breakdown and its correcting and regular repair paths with safety stocks. This framework hopefully serves to simplify answers to the important questions: How much safety stocks, production rate and production lot size are required to minimise the total expected system cost. The optimal production rate, production lot size, production run time and safety stocks are determined numerically and the joint effect of process deterioration, machine breakdown and its repair (correcting and preventive) on the optimal decision is investigated for a numerical example. Such an investigation should also yield logistics directions for the design of products and their manufacturing processes.

  5. Testing reanalysis datasets in Antarctica: Trends, persistence properties and trend significance

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Yang; Havlin, Shlomo

    2015-01-01

    The reanalysis datasets provide very important sources for investigating the climate dynamics and climate changes in Antarctica. In this paper, three major reanalysis data are compared with Antarctic station data over the last 35 years: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP1), NCEP-DOE Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim). In our assessment, we compare the linear trends, the fluctuations around the trends, the persistence properties and the significance level of warming trends in the reanalysis data with the observational ones. We find that NCEP1 and NCEP2 show spurious warming trends in all parts of Antarctica except the Peninsula, while ERA-Interim is quite reliable except at Amundsen-Scott. To investigate the persistence of the data sets, we consider the lag-1 autocorrelation $C(1)$ and the Hurst exponent. While $C(1)$ varies quite erratically in differ...

  6. Global Temperature Response to the Major Volcanic Eruptions in Multiple Reanalysis Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujiwara, M.; Hibino, T.; Mehta, S. K.; Gray, L. J.; Mitchell, D.; Anstey, J.

    2015-12-01

    Global temperature response to the eruptions of Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991 is investigated using nine reanalysis datasets (JRA-55, MERRA, ERA-Interim, NCEP-CFSR, JRA-25, ERA-40, NCEP-1, NCEP-2, and 20CR). Multiple linear regression is applied to the zonal and monthly mean time series of temperature for two periods, 1979-2009 (for eight reanalysis datasets) and 1958-2001 (for four reanalysis datasets), by considering explanatory factors of seasonal harmonics, linear trends, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, solar cycle, and El Niño Southern Oscillation. The residuals are used to define the volcanic signals for the three eruptions separately. In response to the Mount Pinatubo eruption, most reanalysis datasets show strong warming signals (up to 2-3 K for one-year average) in the tropical lower stratosphere and weak cooling signals (down to -1 K) in the subtropical upper troposphere. For the El Chichón eruption, warming signals in the tropical lower stratosphere are somewhat smaller than those for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. The response to the Mount Agung eruption is asymmetric about the equator with strong warming in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude upper troposphere to lower stratosphere. Comparison of the results from several different reanalysis datasets confirms the atmospheric temperature response to these major eruptions qualitatively, but also shows quantitative differences even among the most recent reanalysis datasets.

  7. Model for valuating decentralized energy production

    OpenAIRE

    Cider, Muammer

    2008-01-01

    Ankara : The Department of Economics, Bilkent University, 2008. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2008. Includes bibliographical references leaves 78-79. The purpose of this thesis is to assess decentralized production technologies in an economical framework. Throughout the thesis, technological aspects such as smart metering or connectivity issues are ignored. All assumptions are based on specification sheets by the producers of the technologies to provide an imparti...

  8. Ensemble modeling for aromatic production in Escherichia coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Rizk

    Full Text Available Ensemble Modeling (EM is a recently developed method for metabolic modeling, particularly for utilizing the effect of enzyme tuning data on the production of a specific compound to refine the model. This approach is used here to investigate the production of aromatic products in Escherichia coli. Instead of using dynamic metabolite data to fit a model, the EM approach uses phenotypic data (effects of enzyme overexpression or knockouts on the steady state production rate to screen possible models. These data are routinely generated during strain design. An ensemble of models is constructed that all reach the same steady state and are based on the same mechanistic framework at the elementary reaction level. The behavior of the models spans the kinetics allowable by thermodynamics. Then by using existing data from the literature for the overexpression of genes coding for transketolase (Tkt, transaldolase (Tal, and phosphoenolpyruvate synthase (Pps to screen the ensemble, we arrive at a set of models that properly describes the known enzyme overexpression phenotypes. This subset of models becomes more predictive as additional data are used to refine the models. The final ensemble of models demonstrates the characteristic of the cell that Tkt is the first rate controlling step, and correctly predicts that only after Tkt is overexpressed does an increase in Pps increase the production rate of aromatics. This work demonstrates that EM is able to capture the result of enzyme overexpression on aromatic producing bacteria by successfully utilizing routinely generated enzyme tuning data to guide model learning.

  9. Sustainability Assessment Model in Product Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina; Nor, Nik Hisyamudin Muhd; Omar, Badrul

    2017-08-01

    Faster and more efficient development of innovative and sustainable products has become the focus for manufacturing companies in order to remain competitive in today’s technologically driven world. Design concept evaluation which is the end of conceptual design is one of the most critical decision points. It relates to the final success of product development, because poor criteria assessment in design concept evaluation can rarely compensated at the later stages. Furthermore, consumers, investors, shareholders and even competitors are basing their decisions on what to buy or invest in, from whom, and also on what company report, and sustainability is one of a critical component. In this research, a new methodology of sustainability assessment in product development for Malaysian industry has been developed using integration of green project management, new scale of “Weighting criteria” and Rough-Grey Analysis. This method will help design engineers to improve the effectiveness and objectivity of the sustainable design concept evaluation, enable them to make better-informed decisions before finalising their choice and consequently create value to the company or industry. The new framework is expected to provide an alternative to existing methods.

  10. Statistics of locally coupled ocean and atmosphere intraseasonal anomalies in Reanalysis and AMIP data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Peña

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We apply a simple dynamical rule to determine the dominant forcing direction in locally coupled ocean-atmosphere anomalies in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data. The rule takes into account the phase relationship between the low-level vorticity anomalies and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST anomalies. Analysis of the frequency of persistent coupled anomalies for five-day average data shows that, in general, the ocean tends to force the atmosphere in the tropics while the atmosphere tends to force the ocean in the extratropics. The results agree well with those obtained independently using lagged correlations between atmospheric and oceanic variables, suggesting that the dynamical rule is generally valid. A similar procedure carried out using data from the NCEP global model run with prescribed SST (in which the coupling is one-way, with the ocean always forcing the atmosphere produces fewer coupled anomalies in the extratropics. They indicate, not surprisingly, an increase in ocean-driving anomalies in the model. In addition, and very importantly, there is a strong reduction of persistent atmosphere-driving anomalies, indicating that the one-way interaction of the ocean in the model run may provide a spurious negative feedback that damps atmospheric anomalies faster than observed.

  11. Numerical Modeling of Rotary Kiln Productivity Increase

    OpenAIRE

    2013-01-01

    Rotary kilns are used in many industrial processes ranging from cement manufacturing to waste incineration. The operating conditions vary widely depending on the process. While there are many models available within the literature and industry, the wide range of operating conditions justifies further modeling work to improve the understanding of the processes taking place within the kiln. The kiln being studied in this work produces calcium aluminate cements (CAC). In a first stage of the pro...

  12. REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTIVITY USING MIXED EFFECT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siana Halim

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Production plants of a company are located in several areas that spread across Middle and East Java. As the production process employs mostly manpower, we suspected that each location has different characteristics affecting the productivity. Thus, the production data may have a spatial and hierarchical structure. For fitting a linear regression using the ordinary techniques, we are required to make some assumptions about the nature of the residuals i.e. independent, identically and normally distributed. However, these assumptions were rarely fulfilled especially for data that have a spatial and hierarchical structure. We worked out the problem using mixed effect model. This paper discusses the model construction of productivity and several characteristics in the production line by taking location as a random effect. The simple model with high utility that satisfies the necessary regression assumptions was built using a free statistic software R version 2.6.1.

  13. Marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico - II. Model results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, Mark J.; Yu, Yunke [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)

    2010-08-15

    In the second part of this two-part article on marginal production in the Gulf of Mexico, we estimate the number of committed assets in water depth less than 1000 ft that are expected to be marginal over a 60-year time horizon. We compute the expected quantity and value of the production and gross revenue streams of the gulf's committed asset inventory circa. January 2007 using a probabilistic model framework. Cumulative hydrocarbon production from the producing inventory is estimated to be 1056 MMbbl oil and 13.3 Tcf gas. Marginal production from the committed asset inventory is expected to contribute 4.1% of total oil production and 5.4% of gas production. A meta-evaluation procedure is adapted to present the results of sensitivity analysis. Model results are discussed along with a description of the model framework and limitations of the analysis. (author)

  14. Developing and modelling of ohmic heating for solid food products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feyissa, Aberham Hailu; Frosch, Stina

    such as meat and seafood is not industrially utilized yet. Therefore, the aim of the current work is to model and develop the ohmic heating technology for heating of solid meat and seafood. A 3D mathematical model of coupled heat transfer and electric field during ohmic heating of meat products has been......Heating of solid foods using the conventional technologies is time-consuming due to the fact that heat transfer is limited by internal conduction within the product. This is a big challenge to food manufactures who wish to heat the product faster to the desired core temperature and to ensure more...... uniform quality across the product. Ohmic heating is one of the novel technologies potentially solving this problem by allowing volumetric heating of the product and thereby reducing or eliminating temperature gradients within the product. However, the application of ohmic heating for solid food products...

  15. Product Recommendation System Based on Personal Preference Model Using CAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murakami, Tomoko; Yoshioka, Nobukazu; Orihara, Ryohei; Furukawa, Koichi

    Product recommendation system is realized by applying business rules acquired by data maining techniques. Business rules such as demographical patterns of purchase, are able to cover the groups of users that have a tendency to purchase products, but it is difficult to recommend products adaptive to various personal preferences only by utilizing them. In addition to that, it is very costly to gather the large volume of high quality survey data, which is necessary for good recommendation based on personal preference model. A method collecting kansei information automatically without questionnaire survey is required. The constructing personal preference model from less favor data is also necessary, since it is costly for the user to input favor data. In this paper, we propose product recommendation system based on kansei information extracted by text mining and user's preference model constructed by Category-guided Adaptive Modeling, CAM for short. CAM is a feature construction method that can generate new features constructing the space where same labeled examples are close and different labeled examples are far away from some labeled examples. It is possible to construct personal preference model by CAM despite less information of likes and dislikes categories. In the system, retrieval agent gathers the products' specification and user agent manages preference model, user's likes and dislikes. Kansei information of the products is gained by applying text mining technique to the reputation documents about the products on the web site. We carry out some experimental studies to make sure that prefrence model obtained by our method performs effectively.

  16. Model-driven and software product line engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Royer, Jean-Claude

    2013-01-01

    Many approaches to creating Software Product Lines have emerged that are based on Model-Driven Engineering. This book introduces both Software Product Lines and Model-Driven Engineering, which have separate success stories in industry, and focuses on the practical combination of them. It describes the challenges and benefits of merging these two software development trends and provides the reader with a novel approach and practical mechanisms to improve software development productivity.The book is aimed at engineers and students who wish to understand and apply software product lines

  17. Global reconstructed daily storm surge levels from the 20th century reanalysis (1871-2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cid, Alba; Camus, Paula; Castanedo, Sonia; Mendez, Fernando; Medina, Raul

    2015-04-01

    The study of global patterns of wind and pressure gradients, and more specifically, their effect on the sea level variation (storm surge), is a key issue in the understanding of recent climate changes. The local effect of storm surges on coastal areas (zones particularly vulnerable to climate variability and changes in sea level), is also of great interest in, for instance, flooding risk assessment. Studying the spatial and temporal variability of storm surges from observations is a difficult task to accomplish since observations are not homogeneous in time and scarce in space, and moreover, their temporal coverage is limited. The development of a global storm surge database (DAC, Dynamic Atmospheric Correction by Aviso, Carrère and Lyard, 2003) fulfils the lack of data in terms of spatial coverage, but not regarding time extent since it only includes last couple of decades (1992-2014). In this work, we propose the use of the 20CR ensemble (Compo et al., 2011) which spans from 1871 to 2010 to statistically reconstruct storm surge at a global scale and for a long period of time. Therefore, the temporal and spatial variability of storm surges can be fully studied and with much less effort than performing a dynamical downscaling. The statistical method chosen to carry out the reconstruction is based on multiple linear regression between an atmospheric predictor and the storm surge level at daily scale (Camus et al., 2014). The linear regression model is calibrated and validated using daily mean sea level pressure fields (and gradients) from the ERA-interim reanalysis and daily maxima surges from DAC. The obtained daily database of maximum daily surges has allowed us to estimate global trends at a centennial scale and analyse the effect of the changing climate on storm surges during the 20th century. Hence, this work improves the knowledge on historical storm-surge conditions and provides helpful information to the community concern on marine climate evolution and

  18. Modeling Forest Productivity Using Envisat MERIS Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cenk Donmez

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to derive land cover products with a 300-m pixelresolution of Envisat MERIS (Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer to quantify netprimary productivity (NPP of conifer forests of Taurus Mountain range along the EasternMediterranean coast of Turkey. The Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA was usedto predict annual and monthly regional NPP as modified by temperature, precipitation,solar radiation, soil texture, fractional tree cover, land cover type, and normalizeddifference vegetation index (NDVI. Fractional tree cover was estimated using continuoustraining data and multi-temporal metrics of 47 Envisat MERIS images of March 2003 toSeptember 2005 and was derived by aggregating tree cover estimates made from high-resolution IKONOS imagery to coarser Landsat ETM imagery. A regression tree algorithmwas used to estimate response variables of fractional tree cover based on the multi-temporal metrics. This study showed that Envisat MERIS data yield a greater spatial detailin the quantification of NPP over a topographically complex terrain at the regional scalethan those used at the global scale such as AVHRR.

  19. Modeling Forest Productivity Using Envisat MERIS Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berberoglu, Suha; Evrendilek, Fatih; Ozkan, Coskun; Donmez, Cenk

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to derive land cover products with a 300-m pixel resolution of Envisat MERIS (Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) to quantify net primary productivity (NPP) of conifer forests of Taurus Mountain range along the Eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA) was used to predict annual and monthly regional NPP as modified by temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, soil texture, fractional tree cover, land cover type, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Fractional tree cover was estimated using continuous training data and multi-temporal metrics of 47 Envisat MERIS images of March 2003 to September 2005 and was derived by aggregating tree cover estimates made from high-resolution IKONOS imagery to coarser Landsat ETM imagery. A regression tree algorithm was used to estimate response variables of fractional tree cover based on the multi-temporal metrics. This study showed that Envisat MERIS data yield a greater spatial detail in the quantification of NPP over a topographically complex terrain at the regional scale than those used at the global scale such as AVHRR.

  20. Parameterization and prediction of nanoparticle transport in porous media: A reanalysis using artificial neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babakhani, Peyman; Bridge, Jonathan; Doong, Ruey-an; Phenrat, Tanapon

    2017-06-01

    The continuing rapid expansion of industrial and consumer processes based on nanoparticles (NP) necessitates a robust model for delineating their fate and transport in groundwater. An ability to reliably specify the full parameter set for prediction of NP transport using continuum models is crucial. In this paper we report the reanalysis of a data set of 493 published column experiment outcomes together with their continuum modeling results. Experimental properties were parameterized into 20 factors which are commonly available. They were then used to predict five key continuum model parameters as well as the effluent concentration via artificial neural network (ANN)-based correlations. The Partial Derivatives (PaD) technique and Monte Carlo method were used for the analysis of sensitivities and model-produced uncertainties, respectively. The outcomes shed light on several controversial relationships between the parameters, e.g., it was revealed that the trend of Katt with average pore water velocity was positive. The resulting correlations, despite being developed based on a "black-box" technique (ANN), were able to explain the effects of theoretical parameters such as critical deposition concentration (CDC), even though these parameters were not explicitly considered in the model. Porous media heterogeneity was considered as a parameter for the first time and showed sensitivities higher than those of dispersivity. The model performance was validated well against subsets of the experimental data and was compared with current models. The robustness of the correlation matrices was not completely satisfactory, since they failed to predict the experimental breakthrough curves (BTCs) at extreme values of ionic strengths.

  1. A DYNAMIC OPTIMAL ADVERTISING MODEL FOR NEW PRODUCTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DU Rong; HU Qiying

    2003-01-01

    Many dynamic optimal control models for advertising make efforts to solve theproblem of determining optimal advertising expenditures and other variables of interestover time for a firm or several competing firms. However, after analyzing the extantliterature, one can find that few dynamic optimal advertising models available considerthe problem within the product diffusion framework. Furthermore, the established modelsinvolving product diffusion are inspired by the Bass model, which has been out of date.This paper poses a dynamic optimal advertising model for new products, which considersthe product diffusion based on the relative newly developed generalized version of the Bassmodel. In this paper, the optimal control model is used to derive the optimal advertisingexpenditure policy, which gives some implications to advertising practice.

  2. Putting mechanisms into crop production models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boote, Kenneth J; Jones, James W; White, Jeffrey W; Asseng, Senthold; Lizaso, Jon I

    2013-09-01

    Crop growth models dynamically simulate processes of C, N and water balance on daily or hourly time-steps to predict crop growth and development and at season-end, final yield. Their ability to integrate effects of genetics, environment and crop management have led to applications ranging from understanding gene function to predicting potential impacts of climate change. The history of crop models is reviewed briefly, and their level of mechanistic detail for assimilation and respiration, ranging from hourly leaf-to-canopy assimilation to daily radiation-use efficiency is discussed. Crop models have improved steadily over the past 30-40 years, but much work remains. Improvements are needed for the prediction of transpiration response to elevated CO₂ and high temperature effects on phenology and reproductive fertility, and simulation of root growth and nutrient uptake under stressful edaphic conditions. Mechanistic improvements are needed to better connect crop growth to genetics and to soil fertility, soil waterlogging and pest damage. Because crop models integrate multiple processes and consider impacts of environment and management, they have excellent potential for linking research from genomics and allied disciplines to crop responses at the field scale, thus providing a valuable tool for deciphering genotype by environment by management effects. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Sustainability Product Properties in Building Information Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    washers, dryers , etc. are indispensable in a passive house. Certification is through a third-party building certifier that has been ac- credited by the...Anchor Trenwyth Model Old World Tumbled - 4X8x16 Standard CMU - 8X8X16 Verastone Plus recycled filled and polished ground face masonry units

  4. Organic production in a dynamic CGE model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2004-01-01

    accumulation relationship for land, and an explicit modeling of the rate of stock accumulation (i.e., of land investment). We assume that land is industry specific, with land rentals adjusting to ensure that land supply equals land demand for each industry. Once the decision has been made to transform land...

  5. Numerical Modeling of Rotary Kiln Productivity Increase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Romero-Valle, M.A.; Pisaroni, M.; Van Puyvelde, D.; Lahaye, D.J.P.; Sadi, R.

    2013-01-01

    Rotary kilns are used in many industrial processes ranging from cement manufacturing to waste incineration. The operating conditions vary widely depending on the process. While there are many models available within the literature and industry, the wide range of operating conditions justifies furthe

  6. Process models for production of beta-lactam antibiotics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellgardt, K H

    1998-01-01

    Great progress has been made in the modelling of biotechnical processes using filamentous microorganisms. This paper deals with cultivations of Penicillium chrysogenum for the production of Penicillin and of Acremonium chrysogenum for the production of Cephalosporin C. The properties of the processes and the existing models are reviewed. Models are presented for both processes that consider aspects which are important for industrial cultivation. The process model for Penicillin production is based on a detailed morphological description of growth of hyphal filaments and pellets. The model allows for simulation of the production process including the preculture and considering the inhomogenous pellet population. It opens new possibilities for understanding the complex kinetics of the process and improvement of its control. The structured segregated model for Cephalosporin C production considers soy oil as second carbon source besides sugar. The application of the model for dynamic optimization of feeding strategies by Iterative Dynamic Programming is demonstrated. As an alternative approach, modelling of the Cephalosporin production by an artificial neural network is discussed.

  7. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin; Johnson, Edward J., Jr. (Technical Monitor)

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  8. A Product Development Decision Model for Cockpit Weather Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sireli, Yesim; Kauffmann, Paul; Gupta, Surabhi; Kachroo, Pushkin

    2003-01-01

    There is a significant market demand for advanced cockpit weather information products. However, it is unclear how to identify the most promising technological options that provide the desired mix of consumer requirements by employing feasible technical systems at a price that achieves market success. This study develops a unique product development decision model that employs Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and Kano's model of consumer choice. This model is specifically designed for exploration and resolution of this and similar information technology related product development problems.

  9. Product Modelling and Functional Reasoning in Conceptual Design

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林志航; 宋慧军; 陈康宁

    2004-01-01

    In this paper, a product model in conceptual design, Domain Structure Template, is proposed, which combines the functional domain and the physical domain with the behaviour domain. Seven types of primary mappings units connecting functions, behaviours and carriers during conceptual design process are identified according to the characteristics of the conceptual design of mechanical products.Based on these seven primary mappings, a hierarchical functional reasoning framework characterizing the process of conceptual design is presented. A case study for the conceptual design of industry sewing machines with chain-stitch is described to demonstrate the product modelling and the scheme generation based on the presented model.

  10. Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Charlie C L

    2013-01-01

    The recent trend in user-customized product design requires the shape of products to be automatically adjusted according to the human body’s shape, so that people will feel more comfortable when wearing these products.  Geometric approaches can be used to design the freeform shape of products worn by people, which can greatly improve the efficiency of design processes in various industries involving customized products (e.g., garment design, toy design, jewel design, shoe design, and design of medical devices, etc.). These products are usually composed of very complex geometric shapes (represented by free-form surfaces), and are not driven by a parameter table but a digital human model with free-form shapes or part of human bodies (e.g., wrist, foot, and head models).   Geometric Modeling and Reasoning of Human-Centered Freeform Products introduces the algorithms of human body reconstruction, freeform product modeling, constraining and reconstructing freeform products, and shape optimization for improving...

  11. Planning Horizon for Production Inventory Models with Production Rate Dependent on Demand and Inventory Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Lin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses why the selection of a finite planning horizon is preferable to an infinite one for a replenishment policy of production inventory models. In a production inventory model, the production rate is dependent on both the demand rate and the inventory level. When there is an exponentially decreasing demand, the application of an infinite planning horizon model is not suitable. The emphasis of this paper is threefold. First, while pointing out questionable results from a previous study, we propose a corrected infinite planning horizon inventory model for the first replenishment cycle. Second, while investigating the optimal solution for the minimization problem, we found that the infinite planning horizon should not be applied when dealing with an exponentially decreasing demand. Third, we developed a new production inventory model under a finite planning horizon for practitioners. Numerical examples are provided to support our findings.

  12. Some Problems in Using Diffusion Models for New Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Irwin; Mackenzie, Kenneth D.

    1972-01-01

    Analyzes some of the problems involved in using diffusion models to formulate marketing strategies for introducing new products. Six models, which remove some of the theoretical and methodological restrictions inherent in current models of the adoption and diffusion process, are presented. (Author/JH)

  13. The economic production lot size model extended to include more than one production rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2001-01-01

    btween the demand rate and the production rate which minimizes unit production costs, and should be used in an increasing order. Then, given the production rates, we derive closed-form expressions for all optimal runtimes as well as the minimum average cost. This analysis reveals that it is the size......We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. Moreover, the production rates, as well as their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. First, we show that all production rates should be choosen in the interval...... of the setup cost that determines the need for being able to use several production rates. Finally, we show how to derive a near-optimal solution of the general problem....

  14. The economic production lot size model extended to include more than one production rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Christian

    2005-01-01

    production rates should be chosen in the interval between the demand rate and the production rate which minimizes unit production costs, and should be used in an increasing order. Then, given the production rates, we derive closed-form expressions for all optimal runtimes as well as the minimum average cost......We study an extension of the economic production lot size model, where more than one production rate can be used during a cycle. Moreover, the production rates, as well as their corresponding runtimes are decision variables. We decompose the problem into two subproblems. First, we show that all....... This analysis reveals that it is the size of the setup cost that determines the need for being able to use several production rates. We also show how to derive a near-optimal solution of the general problem....

  15. Hybrid optimization model of product concepts

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Deficiencies of applying the simple genetic algorithm to generate concepts were specified. Based on analyzing conceptual design and the morphological matrix of an excavator, the hybrid optimization model of generating its concepts was proposed, viz. an improved adaptive genetic algorithm was applied to explore the excavator concepts in the searching space of conceptual design, and a neural network was used to evaluate the fitness of the population. The optimization of generating concepts was finished through the "evolution - evaluation" iteration. The results show that by using the hybrid optimization model, not only the fitness evaluation and constraint conditions are well processed, but also the search precision and convergence speed of the optimization process are greatly improved. An example is presented to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method and associated algorithms.

  16. Organic production in a dynamic CGE model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Lars Bo

    2004-01-01

    Concerns about the impact of modern agriculture on the environment have in recent years led to an interest in supporting the development of organic farming. In addition to environmental benefits, the aim is to encourage the provision of other “multifunctional” properties of organic farming...... such as rural amenities and rural development that are spillover benefit additional to the supply of food. In this paper we further develop an existing dynamic general equilibrium model of the Danish economy to specifically incorporate organic farming. In the model and input-output data each primary...... to illustrate the working of our theory by constructing a long term forecast for the development of the Danish economy. Moreover we simulate the effect of the recent agreed 2003 reform of the common agricultural policy....

  17. A nonlinear model of gold production in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramli, Norashikin; Muda, Nora; Umor, Mohd Rozi

    2014-06-01

    Malaysia is a country which is rich in natural resources and one of it is a gold. Gold has already become an important national commodity. This study is conducted to determine a model that can be well fitted with the gold production in Malaysia from the year 1995-2010. Five nonlinear models are presented in this study which are Logistic model, Gompertz, Richard, Weibull and Chapman-Richard model. These model are used to fit the cumulative gold production in Malaysia. The best model is then selected based on the model performance. The performance of the fitted model is measured by sum squares error, root mean squares error, coefficient of determination, mean relative error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error. This study has found that a Weibull model is shown to have significantly outperform compare to the other models. To confirm that Weibull is the best model, the latest data are fitted to the model. Once again, Weibull model gives the lowest readings at all types of measurement error. We can concluded that the future gold production in Malaysia can be predicted according to the Weibull model and this could be important findings for Malaysia to plan their economic activities.

  18. A non-linear model of economic production processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponzi, A.; Yasutomi, A.; Kaneko, K.

    2003-06-01

    We present a new two phase model of economic production processes which is a non-linear dynamical version of von Neumann's neoclassical model of production, including a market price-setting phase as well as a production phase. The rate of an economic production process is observed, for the first time, to depend on the minimum of its input supplies. This creates highly non-linear supply and demand dynamics. By numerical simulation, production networks are shown to become unstable when the ratio of different products to total processes increases. This provides some insight into observed stability of competitive capitalist economies in comparison to monopolistic economies. Capitalist economies are also shown to have low unemployment.

  19. Model of high-productive varieties in forage pea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Kosev

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A linear equation of regression was used for establishment of the influence of quantitative characteristics on the grain productivity in forage pea and for development of a model for breeding work. The model for pea plant with high productivity was characterized by average height of 60–70 cm, 8–10 formed pods, 30–40 seeds per plant and 160–260 g in regard to 1000-seed weight. The obtained results showed that the greatest effect on grain productivity had the seed number per plant, first pod height and 1000-seed weight. Kristal variety had high ecological plasticity and could be considered as close to an ideal type, suitable for growing under wide range of environments. Pleven 4 and Rezonator were determined as high-productive varieties and with low stability, Kerpo and Pikardi - as low-productive but stable varieties. Druzba was identified as unstable and low-productive variety.

  20. Property Modelling for Applications in Chemical Product and Process Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    Physical-chemical properties of pure chemicals and their mixtures play an important role in the design of chemicals based products and the processes that manufacture them. Although, the use of experimental data in design and analysis of chemicals based products and their processes is desirable...... such as database, property model library, model parameter regression, and, property-model based product-process design will be presented. The database contains pure component and mixture data for a wide range of organic chemicals. The property models are based on the combined group contribution and atom......, polymers, mixtures as well as separation processes. The presentation will highlight the framework (ICAS software) for property modeling, the property models and issues such as prediction accuracy, flexibility, maintenance and updating of the database. Also, application issues related to the use of property...

  1. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  2. Aspect-Oriented Model-Driven Software Product Line Engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groher, Iris; Voelter, Markus

    Software product line engineering aims to reduce development time, effort, cost, and complexity by taking advantage of the commonality within a portfolio of similar products. The effectiveness of a software product line approach directly depends on how well feature variability within the portfolio is implemented and managed throughout the development lifecycle, from early analysis through maintenance and evolution. This article presents an approach that facilitates variability implementation, management, and tracing by integrating model-driven and aspect-oriented software development. Features are separated in models and composed of aspect-oriented composition techniques on model level. Model transformations support the transition from problem to solution space models. Aspect-oriented techniques enable the explicit expression and modularization of variability on model, template, and code level. The presented concepts are illustrated with a case study of a home automation system.

  3. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  4. CORA 4.2: A Delayed Mode Validated Temperature and Salinity Dataset Available for Copernicus Marine Service Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, S.; Gourrion, J.; Reverdin, G. P.

    2016-02-01

    CORA (Coriolis Dataset for ReAnalysis) is a delayed mode validated global temperature and salinity dataset provided by the Coriolis data center. This dataset provides measurements from 1950 to 2014 and is used for the model reanalysis provided by the copernicus marine service (http://marine.copernicus.eu/). Various new datasets have been added to CORA to enhance the ocean data coverage in the 4.2 version. Among them, the french SHOM (Service OceanorapHique de la Marine) have provided more than 3 million original profiles on the period 1950-2009. The delayed mode data validation is based on two sets of tests. Airst, an automatic test set able to detect and flag obvious erroneous measurements. A second set of tests is based on the comparison of measurements with a minimum and a maximum temperature and salinity reference field. A warning is associated to each suspicious profile which is manually checked by an oceanographer. The next objective of CORA is to produce a copernicus CMEMS dataset by merging the best features of the CORA dataset and EN.4 datasets (www.metoffice.gov.uk/)

  5. Bicycle helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing: a re-analysis of Walker, 2007.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jake Olivier

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To re-analyse bicycle overtaking data collected by Walker (2007 with a view to assess factors associated with close passing (<1 m, to adjust for other observed factors in a multivariable analysis, and to assess the extent to which the sample size in the original analysis may have contributed to spurious results. METHOD: A re-analysis of 2,355 motor vehicle passing events recorded by Walker that includes information on cyclist's distance to the kerb, vehicle size and colour, city of observation, time of day, whether the event occurred while in a bikelane and helmet wearing. Each variable was considered for a final, multivariable model using purposeful selection of variables. The analysis was repeated using multiple logistic regression with passing distance dichotomised by the one metre rule. Bootstrap p-values were computed using sample sizes computed from conventional values of power and effect size. RESULTS: The previously observed significant association between passing distance and helmet wearing was not found when dichotomised by the one metre rule. Other factors were found to be significantly associated with close passing including cyclists' distance to the kerb, vehicle size and city of observation (Salisbury or Bristol, UK. P-values from bootstrap samples indicate the significance of helmet wearing resulted from an overly large sample size. CONCLUSIONS: After re-analysis of Walker's data, helmet wearing is not associated with close motor vehicle passing. The results, however, highlight other more important factors that may inform effective bicycle safety strategies.

  6. Conceptual Development af a 3D Product Configuration Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skauge, Jørn

    2006-01-01

    Paper. This project deals with 3D product configuration of a digital building element which has been developed as a prototype in cooperation between a product manufacturer and a research institution in Denmark. The project falls within the concept of product modelling which is more and more used...... in the development of IT-systems that support the procedures in companies and in the building industry. In other words, it is a knowledge-based system that helps companies in their daily work. The aim of the project has been to develop and examine conceptual ideas about 3D modelling configurator used in the company......’s production of steel fire sliding doors. The development of the 3D digital model is based on practical rather than theoretical research. The result of the research is a prototype digital 3D model to be presented live....

  7. A single product perishing inventory model with demand interaction ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A single product perishing inventory model with demand interaction. ... satisfied may be satisfied by an item in Phase II, based on a probability measure. ... the probability distribution of the inventory level at any arbitrary point in time is obtained.

  8. Selection of productivity improvement techniques via mathematical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahassan M. Khater

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new mathematical model to select an optimal combination of productivity improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper considers four-stage cycle productivity and the productivity is assumed to be a linear function of fifty four improvement techniques. The proposed model of this paper is implemented for a real-world case study of manufacturing plant. The resulted problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming which can be solved for optimality using traditional methods. The preliminary results of the implementation of the proposed model of this paper indicate that the productivity can be improved through a change on equipments and it can be easily applied for both manufacturing and service industries.

  9. Modeling annual mallard production in the prairie-parkland region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, M.W.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists have proposed several environmental factors that might influence production of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) nesting in the prairie-parkland region of the United States and Canada. These factors include precipitation, cold spring temperatures, wetland abundance, and upland breeding habitat. I used long-term historical data sets of climate, wetland numbers, agricultural land use, and size of breeding mallard populations in multiple regression analyses to model annual indices of mallard production. Models were constructed at 2 scales: a continental scale that encompassed most of the mid-continental breeding range of mallards and a stratum-level scale that included 23 portions of that same breeding range. The production index at the continental scale was the estimated age ratio of mid-continental mallards in early fall; at the stratum scale my production index was the estimated number of broods of all duck species within an aerial survey stratum. Size of breeding mallard populations in May, and pond numbers in May and July, best modeled production at the continental scale. Variables that best modeled production at the stratum scale differed by region. Crop variables tended to appear more in models for western Canadian strata; pond variables predominated in models for United States strata; and spring temperature and pond variables dominated models for eastern Canadian strata. An index of cold spring temperatures appeared in 4 of 6 models for aspen parkland strata, and in only 1 of 11 models for strata dominated by prairie. Stratum-level models suggest that regional factors influencing mallard production are not evident at a larger scale. Testing these potential factors in a manipulative fashion would improve our understanding of mallard population dynamics, improving our ability to manage the mid-continental mallard population.

  10. Pricing Participating Products under a Generalized Jump-Diffusion Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tak Kuen Siu

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a model for valuing participating life insurance products under a generalized jump-diffusion model with a Markov-switching compensator. It also nests a number of important and popular models in finance, including the classes of jump-diffusion models and Markovian regime-switching models. The Esscher transform is employed to determine an equivalent martingale measure. Simulation experiments are conducted to illustrate the practical implementation of the model and to highlight some features that can be obtained from our model.

  11. Organizational Learning and Product Design Management: Towards a Theoretical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiva-Gomez, Ricardo; Camison-Zornoza, Cesar; Lapiedra-Alcami, Rafael

    2003-01-01

    Case studies of four Spanish ceramics companies were used to construct a theoretical model of 14 factors essential to organizational learning. One set of factors is related to the conceptual-analytical phase of the product design process and the other to the creative-technical phase. All factors contributed to efficient product design management…

  12. Modelling studies of fish production in integrated agriculture - aquaculture systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dam, van A.A.

    1995-01-01


    The general objective of this thesis is to formulate a general model for fish production in integrated ponds and ricefields as a means of obtaining a better understanding of these production systems. Integrated culture systems produce fish without large industrial energy inputs and have

  13. Tenure Profiles and Efficient Separation in a Stochastic Productivity Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buhai, I.S.; Teulings, C.N.

    2014-01-01

    We develop a theoretical model based on efficient bargaining, where both log outside productivity and log productivity in the current job follow a random walk. This setting allows the application of real option theory. We derive the efficient worker-firm separation rule. We show that wage data from

  14. Design models in the development of mechatronic products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habib, Tufail; Brunø, Thomas Ditlev; Nielsen, Kjeld

    2012-01-01

    In view of widespread application of mechatronic systems and the competition to offer customized products at high quality and low cost, there has been considerable attention to introduce new methods and models in this regard. This paper explores design process of mechatronic product development w...

  15. Production compilation : A simple mechanism to model complex skill acquisition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taatgen, N.A.; Lee, F.J.

    2003-01-01

    In this article we describe production compilation, a mechanism for modeling skill acquisition. Production compilation has been developed within the ACT-Rational (ACT-R; J. R. Anderson, D. Bothell, M. D. Byrne, & C. Lebiere, 2002) cognitive architecture and consists of combining and specializing tas

  16. Single top production in a non-minimal supersymmetric model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herquet, M.; Knegjens, R.; Laenen, E.L.M.P.

    2010-01-01

    We study single top production at the LHC in a SUSY-QCD model with a heavy Dirac gluino. The presence of a heavy Dirac gluino allows for notable top-up flavour changing neutral currents. In this scenario, we find that the process ug->tg gives the largest contribution to single top production via FCN

  17. Single top production in a non-minimal supersymmetric model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herquet, M.; Knegjens, R.; Laenen, E.

    2010-01-01

    We study single top production at the LHC in a SUSY-QCD model with a heavy Dirac gluino. The presence of a heavy Dirac gluino allows for notable top-up flavour changing neutral currents. In this scenario, we find that the process ug→tg gives the largest contribution to single top production via FCNC

  18. Modelling faba bean production in an uncertain future climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crawford, J.W.; Yiqun Gu,; Peiris, D.R.; Grashoff, C.; McNicol, J.W.; Marschall, B.

    1996-01-01

    Future climate change may bring risk or benefit to crop production. In this paper, the possible impact of climate change on faba bean production in Scotland is examined. Instead of conventional simulation modelling techniques, the belief network approach is applied to deal with the uncertain

  19. Product Modelling for Building Design: Annotated Bibliography (2nd Edition)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1999-01-01

    This bibliography concerns research publications from 1976 to 1994-5, on product modelling in computer aided architectural design and computer aided engineering design of buildings and their surroundings. For each item of literature, full bibliographic information is given whenever available...... of literature is offered on machine interpretation of drawings, which may be relevant in the context of information exchange among different product models. Although the bibliography is fairly comprehensive as far as it goes, no completeness of coverage is claimed....

  20. Schwinger pairs production in a soft-wall model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Feng; Zeng, Ding-fang

    2016-12-01

    The Schwinger pairs production rate is calculated numerically in the soft-wall model with the help of a simpler method in determining the soft-wall's position beyond which probe strings connecting the Schwinger pairs do not fall into. The critical behavior of the production rate and linear part in the middle region are both studied carefully. The latter manifests interesting new features. The results are compared with those in previous hard-wall models.

  1. Product Modelling for Building Design: Annotated Bibliography (2nd Edition)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1999-01-01

    This bibliography concerns research publications from 1976 to 1994-5, on product modelling in computer aided architectural design and computer aided engineering design of buildings and their surroundings. For each item of literature, full bibliographic information is given whenever available...... of literature is offered on machine interpretation of drawings, which may be relevant in the context of information exchange among different product models. Although the bibliography is fairly comprehensive as far as it goes, no completeness of coverage is claimed....

  2. Empirical modelling for the conceptual design and use of products

    OpenAIRE

    Roe, Chris P.; Beynon, Meurig; Fischer, Carlos N

    2001-01-01

    The process of designing an engineering product usually involves only superficial interaction on the part of the user during the design. This often leads to the product being unsuitable for its target comnmnity. In this paper, we describe an approach called Empirical Modelling that emphasises interaction and experiment throughout the construction of a model that we believe has benefits in respect of usability. We use a case study in digital watch design to illustrate our approach and our ideas.

  3. Model of Centauro and strangelet production in heavy ion collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Angelis, Aris L S; Kharlov, Yu V; Korotkikh, V L; Mavromanolakis, G; Panagiotou, A D; Sadovsky, S A; Kharlov, Yu.V.

    2004-01-01

    We discuss the phenomenological model of Centauro event production in relativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions. This model makes quantitative predictions for kinematic observables, baryon number and mass of the Centauro fireball and its decay products. Centauros decay mainly to nucleons, strange hyperons and possibly strangelets. Simulations of Centauro events for the CASTOR detector in Pb-Pb collisions at LHC energies are performed. The signatures of these events are discussed in detail.

  4. Schwinger pairs production in a soft-wall model

    CERN Document Server

    Qu, Feng

    2016-01-01

    The Schwinger pairs production rate is calculated numerically in the soft-wall model with the help of a simpler method in determining the soft-wall's position beyond which probe strings connecting the Schwinger pairs do not fall into. Behaviours of the production rate in both the upper critical region and the middle linear part are studied carefully. The latter exhibits interesting new features un-noted previously. All results are presented in comparisons with hard-wall models.

  5. Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Tripathi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

  6. Full-scale validation of a model of algal productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béchet, Quentin; Shilton, Andy; Guieysse, Benoit

    2014-12-02

    While modeling algal productivity outdoors is crucial to assess the economic and environmental performance of full-scale cultivation, most of the models hitherto developed for this purpose have not been validated under fully relevant conditions, especially with regard to temperature variations. The objective of this study was to independently validate a model of algal biomass productivity accounting for both light and temperature and constructed using parameters experimentally derived using short-term indoor experiments. To do this, the accuracy of a model developed for Chlorella vulgaris was assessed against data collected from photobioreactors operated outdoor (New Zealand) over different seasons, years, and operating conditions (temperature-control/no temperature-control, batch, and fed-batch regimes). The model accurately predicted experimental productivities under all conditions tested, yielding an overall accuracy of ±8.4% over 148 days of cultivation. For the purpose of assessing the feasibility of full-scale algal cultivation, the use of the productivity model was therefore shown to markedly reduce uncertainty in cost of biofuel production while also eliminating uncertainties in water demand, a critical element of environmental impact assessments. Simulations at five climatic locations demonstrated that temperature-control in outdoor photobioreactors would require tremendous amounts of energy without considerable increase of algal biomass. Prior assessments neglecting the impact of temperature variations on algal productivity in photobioreactors may therefore be erroneous.

  7. Evaluation of the Analysis Influence on Transport in Reanalysis Regional Water Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.; Robertson, F. R.

    2011-01-01

    Regional water cycles of reanalyses do not follow theoretical assumptions applicable to pure simulated budgets. The data analysis changes the wind, temperature and moisture, perturbing the theoretical balance. Of course, the analysis is correcting the model forecast error, so that the state fields should be more aligned with observations. Recently, it has been reported that the moisture convergence over continental regions, even those with significant quantities of radiosonde profiles present, can produce long term values not consistent with theoretical bounds. Specifically, long averages over continents produce some regions of moisture divergence. This implies that the observational analysis leads to a source of water in the region. One such region is the Unite States Great Plains, which many radiosonde and lidar wind observations are assimilated. We will utilize a new ancillary data set from the MERRA reanalysis called the Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) which provides the assimilated observations on MERRA's native grid allowing more thorough consideration of their impact on regional and global climatology. Included with the GIO data are the observation minus forecast (OmF) and observation minus analysis (OmA). Using OmF and OmA, we can identify the bias of the analysis against each observing system and gain a better understanding of the observations that are controlling the regional analysis. In this study we will focus on the wind and moisture assimilation.

  8. Earth Rotation Parameters 1899.7 :1992.0 After Reanalysis Within The Hipparcos Frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vondrák, Jan.

    Earth rotation parameters (ERP) in the interval 1899.7-1992.0 are obtained from re-analysis of the observed latitude/universal time variations by optical astrometry. Hipparcos Catalogue is used to define the celestial reference frame, within which the ERP are described, with special care devoted to 'problematic' double and/or multiple stars. The terrestrial reference frame is defined by the adopted latitudes/longitudes of participating instruments and their secular motions as given by the NUVEL-1 NNR model of plate motions, and it is chosen to be very close to the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). More than four million observations made with 48 different instruments at 31 observatories, located all over the world, are utilized to determine polar motion, celestial pole offsets and (after 1956) universal time UT1, all at 5-day intervals. Along with these parameters, the combinations of Love and Shida numbers, governing the tidal variations of the local verticals at individual observatories, are also determined. The analysis of the results covering almost a century, namely the long-periodic polar motion and length-of-day changes, is presented.

  9. Supply chain production model with preservation technology under fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.R. Singh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an attempt is made to characterize the preservation technology for deteriorating items to reduce the deterioration rate. This model assumes a single producer and single supplier and formulates a production model with a time varying rate of deterioration rate. Here production and demand are treated as a fuzzy variables and total cost is minimized for both the crisp and fuzzy model. Shortage is allowed on the supplier’s part, which is partially backlogged. A solution procedure is presented to determine an optimal replenishment cycle and total cost per unit time, which is a convex function of preservation technology cost. Results have been validated with relevant example. In a way, the proposed model provides a unique theory to reduce the deterioration rate for the production model.

  10. Mass balance re-analysis of Findelengletscher, Switzerland; benefits of extensive snow accumulation measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo eSold

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A re-analysis is presented here of a 10-year mass balance series at Findelengletscher, a temperate mountain glacier in Switzerland. Calculating glacier-wide mass balance from the set of glaciological point balance observations using conventional approaches, such as the profile or contour method, resulted in significant deviations from the reference value given by the geodetic mass change over a five-year period. This is attributed to the sparsity of observations at high elevations and to the inability of the evaluation schemes to adequately estimate accumulation in unmeasured areas. However, measurements of winter mass balance were available for large parts of the study period from snow probings and density pits. Complementary surveys by helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR were conducted in three consecutive years. The complete set of seasonal observations was assimilated using a distributed mass balance model. This model-based extrapolation revealed a substantial mass loss at Findelengletscher of -0.43m w.e. a^-1 between 2004 and 2014, while the loss was less pronounced for its former tributary, Adlergletscher (-0.30m w.e. a^-1. For both glaciers, the resulting time series were within the uncertainty bounds of the geodetic mass change. We show that the model benefited strongly from the ability to integrate seasonal observations. If no winter mass balance measurements were available and snow cover was represented by a linear precipitation gradient, the geodetic mass balance was not matched. If winter balance measurements by snow probings and snow density pits were taken into account, the model performance was substantially improved but still showed a significant bias relative to the geodetic mass change. Thus the excellent agreement of the model-based extrapolation with the geodetic mass change was owed to an adequate representation of winter accumulation distribution by means of extensive GPR measurements.

  11. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  12. A fuzzy goal programming model for biodiesel production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutero, D. S.; Pangue, EMU; Tubay, J. M.; Lubag, S. P.

    2016-02-01

    A fuzzy goal programming (FGP) model for biodiesel production in the Philippines was formulated with Coconut (Cocos nucifera) and Jatropha (Jatropha curcas) as sources of biodiesel. Objectives were maximization of feedstock production and overall revenue and, minimization of energy used in production and working capital for farming subject to biodiesel and non-biodiesel requirements, and availability of land, labor, water and machine time. All these objectives and constraints were assumed to be fuzzy. Model was tested for different sets of weights. Results for all sets of weights showed the same optimal allocation. Coconut alone can satisfy the biodiesel requirement of 2% per volume.

  13. Study on Product Lifecycle Dynamic Information Modeling and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Liang-cai; WANG Li-hui; ZHANG Yong

    2003-01-01

    The PLDIM (Product Lifecycle Dynamic Information Model) is the most important part of the PLDM (Product Lifecycle Dynamic Model ) and it is the basis to create the information system and to implement PLM (Product Lifecycle Management). The information classification, the relationships among all information items, PLDIM mathematic expression, information coding and the 3D synthetic description of the PLDIM are presented. The information flow and information system structure based on the two information centers and Internet/Intranet are proposed, and how to implement this system for ship diesel engines are also introduced according to the PLDIM and PLM solutions.

  14. A product-model supporting coupling's management during microproduct design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Museau, Matthieu; De Grave, Arnaud; Masclet, Cedric

    2009-01-01

    Microproducts show specificities compared to macroproducts and their design processes differ. Nowadays, existing design tools manage microproduct specificities too late during the design process, only after the first product representation is available. This article presents a product-model able...... to represent microproducts during the design flow, taking into account their specificities and exceeding the limits of product representation in actual design tools. The genericity of this model is demonstrated by the instantiation of a micro electro mechanical system (MEMS) radio frequency (RF) switch....

  15. Assessing the Quality of Regional Ocean Reanalysis Data from ENSO Signals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Lu; ZHOU Tian-Jun

    2012-01-01

    The quality of regional ocean reanalysis data for "the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO)" has been assessed from the perspective of ENSO-related ocean signals. The results derived from the AIPO reanalysis, including SST, sea surface height (SSH), and subsurface ocean temperature and currents, are compared with those of Hadley Center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadlSST) data set and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) reanalysis data. Both the spatial pattern and the characteristics of evolution of the ENSO-related ocean temperature anomalies are well reproduced by the AIPO reanalysis data. The physical processes proposed to explain the life cycle of ENSO, including the delayed oscillator mechanism, recharge-discharge mechanism, and the zonal advection feedback, are reasonably represented in this dataset. However, the westward Rossby wave signal in 1992 is not obvious in the AIPO data, and the magnitude of the heat content anomalies is different from that of the SODA data. The reason for the discrepancies may lie in the different mod- els and methods for data assimilation and differences in wind stress forcing. The results demonstrate the high reliability of the AIPO reanalysis data in describing ENSO signals, implying its potential application value in ENSO- related studies.

  16. Feedback model evaluation of high-mix product manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Dion; Cheng, Mingjen; Lu, Aho; Mao, Zhibiao; Liang, Curtis

    2006-03-01

    As the patterns are getting smaller, the difficulty to control a margin-tight process expands exponentially. The use of the Automated Process Control (APC), therefore, becomes a widely employed mean in photolithography process to control overlay and CD variations. The accuracy of APC is dependent upon the amount of the previous process data. However, in a foundry with high-mix products it is typical that there are not enough historic data points for accurate calculation of process parameters for a low volume product. The consequence is the high rework rate of pilot runs and test runes due to poor process parameter prediction for overlay. Several studies of the method for predicting the overlay correction have been reported. The key to build a good prediction model is to break the overlay errors down to several parts. Some are equipment or technology related errors, which are shared by all products. Others are the characteristic for certain products, for instance, mask error or special alignment marks. In the production environment the former parts are updated in real time by data feedback from processing all kinds of products. The low volume products or pilot products can share the information. Thus we can achieve a more accurate control or prediction for a new product. In this paper we provide a new model for predicting the process parameter settings of overlay for a pilot run or a product not being run on a tool for a long period of time. This new model is a Simplified Cerebellar Manipulation Arithmetic Controller (SCMAC), which is one kind of Neural Network (NN) model. We assume each part of overlay errors is a cell in SCMAC and build the whole cell table by using this assumption. The final overlay correction value is the sum of a group of cells, which is activated by one lot information. We will also present the details of the building and training of this new SCMAC model. The prediction accuracy of SCMAC in overlay parameters is also evaluated. According to

  17. Reason Maintenance in Product Modelling via Open Source CAD System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ibrahim

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The present and future challenges of a new product design, forecasting and risk management launch strategy for a new product modelling decision process. This paper intends to propose and to look towards the development of a low-cost integrated CAD-CAPP-CAD/CAM product modelling system for the design and manufacture of a proposed product. It is a mapping between several design phases like functional design, technical design and physical design. The modelling data generation process begins with the drafting of a product to be maintained using the drafting software package. From the CAD drawing, the data are transferred to be used as the product models and a CAPP software package will then prepare the operational parameters for the manufacturing of the product. These process data are relayed to a CAM software package, which will then generate the automating information-processing functions. The final stage of the function is to support design and manufacturing operations that may have reaped many benefits in terms of its initial equipment and software costs.

  18. Boolean models of biosurfactants production in Pseudomonas fluorescens.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Richard

    Full Text Available Cyclolipopeptides (CLPs are biosurfactants produced by numerous Pseudomonas fluorescens strains. CLP production is known to be regulated at least by the GacA/GacS two-component pathway, but the full regulatory network is yet largely unknown. In the clinical strain MFN1032, CLP production is abolished by a mutation in the phospholipase C gene (plcC and not restored by plcC complementation. Their production is also subject to phenotypic variation. We used a modelling approach with Boolean networks, which takes into account all these observations concerning CLP production without any assumption on the topology of the considered network. Intensive computation yielded numerous models that satisfy these properties. All models minimizing the number of components point to a bistability in CLP production, which requires the presence of a yet unknown key self-inducible regulator. Furthermore, all suggest that a set of yet unexplained phenotypic variants might also be due to this epigenetic switch. The simplest of these Boolean networks was used to propose a biological regulatory network for CLP production. This modelling approach has allowed a possible regulation to be unravelled and an unusual behaviour of CLP production in P. fluorescens to be explained.

  19. Product Modeling Based on Knowledge Fusion in Virtual Environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    邹湘军; 孙健; 何汉武

    2004-01-01

    Following researches on the knowledge-based product design, product modeling based on knowledge fusion is studied in a virtual environment. Knowledge fusion is the energy sources of product innovation designs. Because a knowledge representation method is the main content of knowledge fusion, production rule way, semantic network, predicate, object-oriented and case-based representations are discussed. Using agents with object-oriented method, the knowledge can be represented as a set. The product knowledge set is divided into two subset: text knowledge and knowledge of engineering graphics that is a different form. Manipulation of the subset knowledge and fusion method is described. The paper also describes a six-tuple function in an agent data structure. A virtual environment computation model is proposed, and a practical example given.

  20. Littlest Higgs model and pair production at international linear collider

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Poulose

    2007-11-01

    Among the viable alternatives to the standard Higgs mechanism is the recently proposed Little Higgs model. The advantage here is that the model has an elementary light neutral scalar particle, which arises dynamically as against its ad hoc introduction in the standard model. The model also avoids hierarchy problem. We have investigated the pair production at ILC to study the littlest Higgs model using different observables. Specifically, polarization fraction of boson is expected to be measured very accurately at ILC. We use this to put limit on the scale parameter, , in the model.

  1. Competing in Product and Service: A Product Life-Cycle Model

    OpenAIRE

    Morris A. Cohen; Seungjin Whang

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we develop a product life-cycle model that studies a set of strategic choices facing manufacturers as they design the joint product/service bundle for a product which may require maintenance and repair support after its sale. The choice parameters of interest include the product price, the quality of after-sales service and the price to be charged for the after-sales service. We adopt a competitive, game-theoretic (as opposed to single-firm optimization) framework, where there i...

  2. H2A Production Model, Version 2 User Guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steward, D.; Ramsden, T.; Zuboy, J.

    2008-09-01

    The H2A Production Model analyzes the technical and economic aspects of central and forecourt hydrogen production technologies. Using a standard discounted cash flow rate of return methodology, it determines the minimum hydrogen selling price, including a specified after-tax internal rate of return from the production technology. Users have the option of accepting default technology input values--such as capital costs, operating costs, and capacity factor--from established H2A production technology cases or entering custom values. Users can also modify the model's financial inputs. This new version of the H2A Production Model features enhanced usability and functionality. Input fields are consolidated and simplified. New capabilities include performing sensitivity analyses and scaling analyses to various plant sizes. This User Guide helps users already familiar with the basic tenets of H2A hydrogen production cost analysis get started using the new version of the model. It introduces the basic elements of the model then describes the function and use of each of its worksheets.

  3. How can Product Development Process Modelling be made more useful?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wynn, David C; Maier, Anja; Clarkson, John P

    2010-01-01

    methods appear to have been widely accepted by industry as practical approaches to improve PD processes. To improve the attractiveness of process modelling and model-based methods to industry it is thus worthwhile to ask: How is PD process modelling useful, and how can the utility of modelling to industry......A significant body of research exists in the area of Product Development (PD) process modelling. This is highlighted by Browning and Ramasesh (2007), who recently reviewed over 400 papers in this field. However, despite hundreds, probably thousands of publications in this area, few of the proposed...... be improved? In this paper, we analyse PD process modelling ‘utility’ – which in broad terms we consider to be the degree to which a model-based approach or modelling intervention benefits practice. We view the utility of modelling as a composite property which depends both on the properties of models...

  4. Some Problems in Using Diffusion Models for New Products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Irwin; Mackenzie, Kenneth D.

    This paper analyzes some of the problems of using diffusion models to formulate marketing strategies for new products. Though future work in this area appears justified, many unresolved problems limit its application. There is no theory for adoption and diffusion processes; such a theory is outlined in this paper. The present models are too…

  5. Higgs Pair Production in Models with Universal Extra Dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    de Sandes, Hiroshi

    2007-01-01

    In this letter we study the process of gluon fusion into a pair of Higgs bosons in a model with one universal extra dimension. We find that the contributions from the extra top quark Kaluza-Klein excitations lead to a Higgs pair production cross section that can be significantly altered compared to the Standard Model value for small values of the compactification scale.

  6. A model for marketing planning for new products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martensen, Anne

    1993-01-01

    Forecasting new products sales has been approached in many different ways over the last few decades. A model is presented which integrates several of these approaches and expands on them. The model is based on separate forecasting of trial volume and repeat volume and incorporates a special aware...

  7. Data and models in Action. Methodological Issues in Production Ecology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stein, A.; Penning, de F.W.T.

    1999-01-01

    This book addresses methodological issues of production ecology. A central issue is the combination of the agricultural model with reliable data in relation to scale. A model is developed with data from a single point, whereas decisions are to be made for areas of land. Such an approach requires the

  8. Adapting the Kirkpatrick Model to Technical Communication Products and Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carliner, Saul

    1997-01-01

    Proposes a four-level model for adapting the Kirkpatrick model of training evaluation to suit technical manuals and services assessing: (1) user satisfaction; (2) user performance; (3) client performance; and (4) client satisfaction. Discusses assessing of the value of work, limitations in evaluating technical communication products, and the…

  9. Modelling the Performance of Product Integrated Photovoltaic (PIPV) Cells Indoors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Apostolou, G.; Verwaal, M.; Reinders, Angelina H.M.E.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we present a model, which have been developed for the estimation of the PV products’ cells’ performance in an indoor environment. The model computes the efficiency and power production of PV technologies, as a function of distance from natural and artificial light sources. It intents

  10. An Integrated Model for Production and Distribution Planning of Perishable Products with Inventory and Routing Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Seyedhosseini

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In many conventional supply chains, production planning and distribution planning are treated separately. However, it is now demonstrated that they are mutually related problems that must be tackled in an integrated way. Hence, in this paper a new integrated production and distribution planning model for perishable products is formulated. The proposed model considers a supply chain network consisting of a production facility and multiple distribution centers. The facility produces a single perishable product that is storable only for predetermined periods. A homogenous fleet of vehicles is responsible for delivering the product from facility to distribution centers. The decisions to be made are the production quantities, the distribution centers that must be visited, and the quantities to be delivered to them. The objective is to minimize the total cost, where the trip minimization is considered simultaneously. As the proposed formulation is computationally complex, a heuristic method is developed to tackle the problem. In the developed method, the problem is divided into production submodel and distribution submodel. The production submodel is solved using LINGO, and a particle swarm heuristic is developed to tackle distribution submodel. Efficiency of the algorithm is proved through a number of randomly generated test problems.

  11. A Design of Product Collaborative Online Configuration Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoguo; Zheng, Jin; Zeng, Qian

    According to the actual needs of mass customization, the personalization of product and its collaborative design, the paper analyzes and studies the working mechanism of modular-based product configuration technology and puts forward an information model of modular product family. Combined with case-based reasoning techniques (CBR) and the constraint satisfaction problem solving techniques (CSP), we design and study the algorithm for product configuration, and analyze its time complexity. A car chassis is made as the application object, we provide a prototype system of online configuration. Taking advantage of this system, designers can make appropriate changes on the existing programs in accordance with the demand. This will accelerate all aspects of product development and shorten the product cycle. Also the system will provide a strong technical support for enterprises to improve their market competitiveness.

  12. Higgs production and decay in the little Higgs model

    OpenAIRE

    Dib, C; Rosenfeld, R.; Zerwekh, A.

    2003-01-01

    We analyse the consequences of the little Higgs model for double Higgs boson production at the LHC and for the partial decay width of the Higgs into two photons. In particular, we study the sensitivity of these processes in terms of the parameters of the model. We find that the little Higgs model contributions are proportional to (v/f)^4 and hence do not change significantly either single or double Higgs production at hadron colliders or the partial decay width of the Higgs into two photons a...

  13. Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cristina Teresa

    2015-02-01

    The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

  14. Dependability breakeven point mathematical model for production - quality strategy support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilcu, Adrian; Verzea, Ion; Chaib, Rachid

    2016-08-01

    This paper connects the field of dependability system with the production-quality strategies through a new mathematical model based on breakeven points. The novelties consist in the identification of the parameters of dependability system which, in safety control, represents the degree to which an item is capable of performing its required function at any randomly chosen time during its specified operating period disregarding non-operation related influences, as well as the analysis of the production-quality strategies, defining a mathematical model based on a new concept - dependability breakeven points, model validation on datasets and shows the practical applicability of this new approach.

  15. Massive mu pair production in a vector field theory model

    CERN Document Server

    Halliday, I G

    1976-01-01

    Massive electrodynamics is treated as a model for the production of massive mu pairs in high-energy hadronic collisions. The dominant diagrams in perturbation theory are identified and analyzed. These graphs have an eikonal structure which leads to enormous cancellations in the two-particle inclusive cross section but not in the n-particle production cross sections. Under the assumption that these cancellations are complete, a Drell-Yan structure appears in the inclusive cross section but the particles accompanying the mu pairs have a very different structure compared to the parton model. The pionization region is no longer empty of particles as in single parton models. (10 refs).

  16. Spatio-temporal trends in the hydroclimate of Turkey for the last decades based on two reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gokmen, Mustafa

    2016-09-01

    We present a regional assessment of the spatiotemporal trends in several hydro-climate variables from 1979 to 2010 in Turkey, one of the countries of the eastern Mediterranean vulnerable to climate change, using the two reanalysis products of the ECMWF: ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land. The trend analysis revealed that an average warming of 1.26 °C [0.8-1.8] occurred in Turkey from 1979 to 2010, with high confidence intervals (95-99 %, mostly). Geographically, the largest warming (up to 1.8 °C) occurred in the western coastal areas next to the Aegean Sea and in the southeastern regions. The air temperature trends were generally confirmed by the in situ data from about 100 weather stations around the country, though in situ data indicated slightly higher trends ranging from 1 to 2.5°. With respect to the regional trends in hydrological variables, ERA-Interim and ERA-Interim/Land revealed quite different pictures: the ERA-Interim dataset indicated that there have been significant decreasing trends of precipitation, snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff in some parts of inner/southeastern Anatolia (a total decrease of up to 250 mm in the upstream of the Euphrates, Kizilirmak and Seyhan basins), while ERA-Interim/Land showed no or minor trends in the same areas. Based on the extensive comparisons with precipitation and SWE gauge data, we can suggest that the hydrological trends shown by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, which is said to be a model improvement, are relatively closer to the observations. From the hydrological trends revealed by the ERA-Interim/Land dataset, we can conclude that, despite the strong warming trends over Turkey from 1979 to 2010, there have been no widespread and strong hydrological trends for the same period throughout the country. In this regard, we can suggest that the impacts of global warming on the water cycle are not straightforward, especially at the regional scale, and future climate simulations indicating considerable

  17. A Deterministic Inventory/Production Model with General Inventory Cost Rate Function and Concave Production Costs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.I. Birbil (Ilker); J.B.G. Frenk (Hans); Z.P. Bayindir (Pelin)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe present a thorough analysis of the economic order quantity model with shortages under a general inventory cost rate function and concave production costs. By using some standard results from convex analysis, we show that the model exhibits a composite concave-convex structure.

  18. A Simple Structure Model for Enzyme Production by Phanerochaete chrysosporium

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    岑沛霖; 郑重鸣; FOOYinDin; JefferyPhilipObbard; 林建平

    2003-01-01

    In order to understand the behavior of ligninolytic enzyme production by white rot fungi Phanerochaete chrysosporium, study on time courses and a mathematical model for the production of lignin peroxidase (LiP) and manganese peroxidase (MnP) of the fungi was undertaken. Based on the Monod-Jacob operon model, the ligninolytic enzyme would be synthesized in the absence of a related repressor. The repressor is assumed to be active in the presence of ammonia nitrogen, and as combined as co-repressor, it causes the inhibition of enzyme synthesis. The model can explain the mechanism of extracellular ligninolytic enzyme production by white rot fungi. The results,as predicted by the model, correspond closely to those observed in experimental studies. In addition, some light is also shed on unmeasured variables, such as the concentrations of repressor and mRNA that are related to the enzyme synthesis.

  19. Stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs:An application to an HIV immunology model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    BIAN Fuping; DAI Min

    2005-01-01

    This paper extends the stochastic frontier production theory to the case of multiple outputs and calculate the measurement of efficiency using the production theory. We further apply this method to construct the stochastic frontier production model with undesirable outputs. Finally, the model is used in an HIV immunology model and the efficient drug treatment strategies are then explored.All the models are estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation method. Stochastic errors are considered in this model, which is an advantage over other deterministic efficiency models. Some of our conclusions agree with those published in related papers.

  20. A model of the supplier involvement in the product innovation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumar Manoj

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine the product innovation in a supply chain by a supplier and derive a model for a supplier’s product innovation policy. The product innovation of a supplier can contribute to the long-term competitiveness for the supply chain, and as it is for many supply chains a major factor, it should be considered in the development of strategies for a supplier. Here, we evaluate the effectiveness of supplier product innovation as a strategic tool to enhance the competitiveness and viability of supply chain. This paper explores the dynamic research performance of a supplier with endogenous time preference under a given arrangement of product innovation. We find that the optimal effort level and the achieved product innovation obey a saddle point path, or show tremendous fluctuations even without introducing the stochastic nature of product innovative activity. We also find that the fluctuation frequency is largely dependent both on the supplier’s characteristics such as supplier’s product innovative ability and on the nature of product innovation process per se. Short-run analyses are also made on the effect of supply chain cooperation in the product innovation process.